966
FXUS63 KAPX 242130
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
530 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
CHURN EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY AS RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD. SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN HAS DIMINISHED SOME
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS INCREASINGLY DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST WINDS AND DIURNAL MIXING HAS ENSUED. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD, COMBINING WITH WEAK/CALM WINDS TO
CREATE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT -- AND LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS INTERIOR LOW-LYING AREAS WITH READINGS
POTENTIALLY DIPPING WELL INTO THE 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LESS WIND, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROUGHING PUNCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE
SOME ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, STEADIEST RAIN/BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE AN OVERALL UNIMPRESSIVE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN RELATIVELY
MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR, A FEW
STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM POTENTIALLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNDER SOME PASSING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW HIGH
BASED CUMULUS. CONCERN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MIST/LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
THIS MIST/FOG WILL BECOME. ANY FOG/MIST WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
SOME LOCAL AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-
018-020-024-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB
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