217
FXUS63 KAPX 300445
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
- A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WARM CONVEYOR
BELT PROCESSES WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY FIGHTING SOME MID
LEVEL DRY AIR, WE SHOULD SATURATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SNOW DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST FORCING FOR MOST AREAS OCCURS FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
NORTHWARD TOWARD DE TOUR VILLAGE/DRUMMOND ISLAND, WHERE INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAVORABLE H10-H8 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SIGNALS WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES/AMOUNTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. I
HAVE SOME CONCERN WHETHER WE CAN ACHIEVE WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE LAKE HURON COAST GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE MOST
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FORCING. OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE STORM EVOLUTION HANDLED WELL AND PLAN ONLY SOME MINOR
WORDING CHANGES RELATED TO SNOW ONSET TIMING WITHIN OUR CURRENT
HEADLINES.
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/FORCING EXIT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS WE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE PREVIOUS AFD MENTIONED,
THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT WON'T CARRY THE SAME POTENTIAL AS WHAT WE
JUST HAD THROUGH THANKSGIVING, WITH A RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS AND SHIFTING LOW LEVEL WINDS. THAT WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 6-8K AND MOISTURE EXTENDING BRIEFLY
THROUGH THE DGZ. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
OUR DEPARTING LOW DURING THIS TIME, SO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD BLOW AROUND MORE WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES. A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE NNW-WNW
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK ON MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND RATHER ANEMIC MOISTURE PROFILES, SO ONLY LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT EXPECTED. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
LIGHTER SNOWS TO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER - BUT ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MAY
PRODUCE MORE ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST THROUGH THE STRAITS AND PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER.
THE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES MIDWEEK AS YET ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE BRINGS SNOW BACK TO THE AREA, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN -SN. VSBYS OF 1-2SM WILL
REMAIN COMMON. SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS BEGINNING BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING, AS WIDESPREAD SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR AT MOST SPOTS. BUT BLSN MAY DEVELOP AS
GUSTY N TO NW WINDS DEVELOP.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020>023-025>029-031>034-086-087-095-097>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ018-024-030-
035-036-041-042-088-096.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JZ
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