232
FXUS63 KAPX 191031
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
- LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT,
WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
- OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS MORNING. NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THESE, AS THE MAIN FORCING BEHIND IT (JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER
SHORT WAVE) IS CONTINUING EASTWARD. THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER, DUAL CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL CAN, WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS.
TODAY, A TICK UP IN UPPER HEIGHTS (RESTING IN BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS) WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
TO BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY (COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY), WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN MT DEEPENING DUE TO INCREASING VORTICITY. SURFACE TROUGHING
IS JUST STARTING TO FORM DOWN WIND OF THE UPPER WAVE AS PVA OCCURS
OVERHEAD. ALPW SHOW AROUND 0.7" TO 0.9" PWATS OVER ND WITHIN THESE
FEATURES. THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE & MOISTURE WILL CONTINUES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY EXIT DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, KEEPING THE STRATIFORM RAIN CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS
FOR MOST SPOTS. DURING THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON TIME FRAME,
MOISTURE WILL LINGER WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN COOLER AND SUNSHINE
WARMS THE SURFACE. HIGHER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST, RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED IN THE MID
LEVELS, HOWEVER FREEZING TEMPS COULD BE BELOW 10KFT. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN (POSSIBLY SLOW MOVING
CELLS?) COULD BE SEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE THREATS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE
ANCHORED UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CAN STARTS TO DIP SOUTH
TOWARDS MI LATE SUNDAY, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN TO
THE GULF AND CARRY STORM CHANCES UP THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR NORTHERN MI BEING DRY SLOTTED AS THIS HAPPENS,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
(EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER).
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SOME STRATUS BRINGING LIFR CIGS TO CIU AT THE VERY START OF THE
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BURN OFF/MOVE OUT QUICKLY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER THAT UNDER SCT CU AND SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO NW LOWER MI TONIGHT, AND SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MBL, AND VERY VERY LATE AT TVC. DO
HAVE MBL SEEING AN MVFR CIG AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ
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