075
FXUS63 KAPX 251815
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL NIGHTS WITH FOG, PERHAPS FROST POSSIBLE
- VERY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SHORTWAVE TROF OVERHEAD, CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGH CLOUDS NOW
PRESENT, WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NW TO SE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. PINCHED UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SLOW-MOVING NOR'EASTER
CONTRIBUTES TO A STALLED UPPER PATTERN.
THE RELATIVELY SLOW CLEARING TODAY, WITH DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING/
MIXING, SHOULD LEAVE US MORE PRONE TO FOG TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
EFFECTIVELY CALM TONIGHT (OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZES, WE HAVE LITTLE
WIND THIS AFTERNOON). ALSO NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME SPOTTY MID 30S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT, AND CORRESPONDING PATCHY FROST.
BETTER MIXING WILL BE SEEN ON SATURDAY, AND THERE IS DRIER AIR
AVAILABLE ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. FOR FIRE WX USERS, HAVE LOWERED
GUIDANCE DEW POINTS/RHS, WHICH REACH AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT SAT
AFTERNOON BETWEEN CAD AND MBL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE, SO NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED.
OUR NEXT ACTIVE WX LOOKS UNLIKELY UNTIL MIDWEEK, TUE NIGHT AND
BEYOND. THE NOR'EASTER LOW OPENS UP AND EJECTS, AND THE TRAIN
BEHIND IT CAN START MOVING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INFUSION OF
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SW STATES, THOUGH FOR
NOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY
INTERACT, AT LEAST THRU MIDWEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THIS DRY SPELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
20KFT CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT TODAY, SLOWEST
FOR APN, AND COULD HANG ON LONGER FOR PLN/MBL. FEW-SCT 2500-4000FT
CLOUDS POSSIBLE, ESP FOR CIU/PLN AND PERHAPS TVC THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
OTHERWISE SKC WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS (LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED, ESP FOR
TVC/MBL/APN). TONIGHT...THINK FOG WILL RETURN AGAIN, PARTICULARLY
FOR CIU, BUT COULD SNEAK FURTHER SOUTH/EAST INTO PLN, ETC. HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IDEA IN TAFS ATTM, MOST AGGRESSIVELY WITH CIU GOING
LIFR OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, WITH LAND-BREEZE (ONSHORE) WINDS AT APN/TVC/MBL. RETURNING
TO VFR IN THE MORNING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT/VRB WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...FEF
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