917
FXUS63 KAPX 250430
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE DEEP FREEZE CONTINUES WITH A LITTLE MODERATION
- NEXT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
COLD. CLASSIC ARCTIC OUTBREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH 500MB
HEIGHT ANOMALY "RIDGE BRIDGE" FROM GREENLAND TO NORTH OF ALASKA WITH
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR
ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTHWARD - RESULTING IN EXTREMELY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN LARGELY CONTINUES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, HUGGING CLOSER TO THE COASTS WITH A LIGHTER WIND REGIME AS
LAND BREEZES PUSH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. THIS LIGHTER WIND
PATTERN MAY PUSH SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD BEAVER
ISLAND, WHICH COULD SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE FROM THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO LOWS WITH COLDER POCKETS
OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER IN THE MINUS TEENS.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA/PARTS
OF LAKE HURON COAST WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT NORTH IN RECENT RUNS, SO SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE, JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, HUGGING CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH COLD FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL, THIS IS A DRIER PATTERN THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW WEEKS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL PWATS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ANY SNOW PRODUCING
SYSTEMS. ONE SUCH SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW BUT RELATIVELY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY). WITH GREAT
LAKES ICE COVER EXPANDING RAPIDLY, THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL
BE GREATLY REDUCED IN SOME AREAS OVER THE COMING WEEKS. THE MODELS
HAVE LIKELY NOT FULLY CAPTURED THIS YET BUT THINK WE WILL SEE THAT
PLAY OUT IN THEIR SNOWFALL FORECASTS UPCOMING. AFTER THAT
AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER, MAINLY JUST LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED COLD WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
STILL LOOKING AT MVFR CIGS AT KCIU FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING, WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING UNDER SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS. LOOKING AT SOME MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO BUILD INTO KAPN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO BOTH KTVC
AND KMBL LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MSB
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