560
FXUS63 KAPX 141039
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NE CONUS AND NORTH
ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING FOLDS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST, KEEPING THE GREAT LAKES IN NORTHWEST MID/UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUBSIDENCE
PROVIDED AT THIS INFLECTION POINT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
SATURDAY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING EVENTUALLY SLIDES EAST OF THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING SLIDES
OVERHEAD, SUPPORTING A CYCLONE THAT WILL TREK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY TEMPORARILY BUILD
BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTLES IN LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST DETAILS:
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES IN STORE FOR THE NORTHWOODS TODAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THE PRIMARY FOCUS TURNS TO
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION.
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SPLIT FORCING FROM EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IN THE MAIN FLOW -- ONE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BORDER/LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND A SECOND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE, NORTHERN MICHIGAN MAY
FIND ITSELF IN A RELATIVE LULL IN RAIN COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
EARLIEST CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING WITH BEST RAIN
CHANCES COMING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR
SPLIT FORCING, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
END UP SEEING LITTLE/NO RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE STEADY RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND -- AND LOW CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL -- WILL BE
THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO KICK OFF NEXT WEEK BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES MOVE BACK IN CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
PATCHY FG/BR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE FORMATION PUSHING INLAND. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, PATCHY FG/BR IS LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...DJC
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