782
FXUS63 KAPX 221747
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING
OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WEAK ~1002MB LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW WELL
DOWNSTREAM WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE, BRINGING A CHILLY
AIRMASS BACK INTO NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURES OOZE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING CENTERED OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN JET REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH ATTENTION
LARGELY FOCUSING ON SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, EACH WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF INCLEMENT WEATHER
TO PARTS OF NORTHERN MI.
FORECAST DETAILS:
OCCASIONALLY BRISK NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT PASSAGE. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 20-25
MPH EXPECTED NEAREST THE LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON LAKESHORES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WIND CHILLS LARGELY IN THE LOW-MID 20S
AREA-WIDE. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE U.P. AND THROUGH THE
TEENS/LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. ONGOING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MAY CONTINUE AT
TIMES RIGHT ON INTO THE EVENING, AND NOT ENTIRELY SOLD THAT WE
DON'T MUSTER SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO PART OF
TONIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CONTINUED SUB 1KFT CLOUD
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER WITH A WEAK LAKE CONTRIBUTION
AS H8 TEMPS COOL TO BELOW -10 C. SUPPOSE JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR
BELOW ~600 FT MAY PREVENT THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND AWAY
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WILL ADD IN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH COOL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE U.P. TO THE LOW-MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FEATURES RENEWED SNOW CHANCES,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT, ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) SAG INTO THE
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN LOWER TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMS GENERALLY PROGGED
AT NO MORE THAN 1-1.5", WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 30S LARGELY MELTING WHATEVER DOES ACCUMULATE.
BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, NORTHERN MI IS EXPECTED TO
LIE SQUARELY WITHIN THE TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
INCREASINGLY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DURING
THIS TIME, AT LEAST LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP CHANCES LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS OCCURRING.
THIS POTENTIAL IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE BREWING LEE OF THE
ROCKIES LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY -- SET TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT, MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH A MYRIAD OF PRECIP TYPES POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA -- AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. PER USUAL, PRIMARILY RAIN ANTICIPATED SOUTH, SNOW TO THE
NORTH, WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF MIXED
PRECIP/ICING IN THE MIDDLE. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
THIS ALL SETS UP GIVEN THIS ISN'T UNTIL DAY 5. THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T
SCREAM OVERLY HIGH IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT'S QUICK-MOVING
NATURE, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH THERE TO MESSAGE GROWING POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SOME TRAVEL INCONVENIENCES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MI LATE IN
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AS A COLD FRONT RETREATS SOUTH OF THE AREA, COOL BUT RELATIVELY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR IS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD. STRATUS AND SOME -DZ
IS RESULTING. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN EARLY APN/TVC/MBL, BUT
THESE WILL DEPART AS THE MORNING PROCEEDS. IFR WILL BE COMMON
THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES BUT MBL, WITH LIFR AT TIMES AT
CIU/PLN. BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR POKES IN
FROM THE NORTH, AND CIU AND THEN PLN WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH LONGER AT THE OTHER SITES.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MVFR AS CIG'S BETWEEN 015 AND 030 CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING MONDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY
WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ342.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...SJC
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