916
FXUS63 KAPX 150914
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
514 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO FLOURISH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WINDY AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.
- WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND, MILDER AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PROMINENT, AND
NECESSARY, FEATURES OF NOTE TO OUR WEST. FIRST IS AN UPPER LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT RANGE, ANOTHER IS A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS CANADA AND THE ADJACENT DAKOTAS. RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES, ALTHOUGH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE WILL INJECT AN ANOMALOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINING
INTO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STEADY MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS A RESULT, SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. BIT OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK FOR SOME. AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NNW WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING. COLD ADVECTION AND
CRASHING H850 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN LAKE CONVECTION AS WELL, AND
THUS THROUGH THE DAY THE TYPICAL NNW LAKE EFFECT ZONES WILL
BECOME FAVORED WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A HEALTHY SWATH OF ~0.60-1.0"+
OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL HIGHS AND LOWS, POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
25 TO 40 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE, SYNOPTIC ASCENT, AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELINQUISH THROUGH THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY, AND
THUS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND WINDS, WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
MANITOBA, SASKATCHEWAN, AND UP INTO THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE AND SLOWLY SHIFT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES (N MI) WILL BE A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDIEST DAY WILL
BE SUNDAY. IT WILL STILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY BUT BY SUNDAY,
THOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MILDER MASS, WITH 60S
EXPECTED.
HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH 60S COMMON. THE
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, OCCASIONALLY LOW VFR.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A STEADY
RAIN BEGINNING DURING HE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEADIER RAIN BEGINS
~18-21Z MBL & TVC, AND 21-00Z OTHER TERMINALS, CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH, VSBYS DROP (~2-3SM) AND SO DO CIGS,
GENERALLY IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
GENERALLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TODAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ322.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...ELD
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