220
FXUS63 KAPX 250948
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
548 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY FAIRLY SCATTERED, LEAVING PLENTY OF DRY
TIME BETWEEN ANY CONVECTION.
A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH
ACTIVITY CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING SCATTERED IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 60S AND EASTERN UPPER FLIRTING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA
SUNDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT-OR- MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING, BUT FORCING LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, KEEPING CHANCES PRETTY SCATTERED AND LOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING.
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION, THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS APPEARING TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH A MORE
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS IN PLACE... SPC AND WPC CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER LOOKING
TO SETTLE BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN AFTER A SLIGHT "COOLING" EARLY IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SWATH OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST INTO
THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE VCSH IN KCIU AS A
RESULT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. INCREASED
MOISTURE MAY BRING LOWER CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH
-SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-
342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...MJG
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