603  
FXUS63 KAPX 292327  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
727 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A FEW MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND BIT COOLER  
WEEKEND.  
 
- WARMING TREND KICKS OFF NEXT WEEK, EXPANDING MID-SUMMER LIKE HEAT  
INTO THE NORTHWOODS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:  
 
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NOAM  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, HELPED ALONG BE ONGOING ABSORPTION OF CURRENT  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORE  
ORGANIZED RAINS TIED TO THAT SHORTWAVE HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED,  
OWNING TO THINNING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES AND STEADY DECAY OF  
FORCING. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR, CURRENT TEMPERATURES  
HIGHLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS, WITH CURRENT READING MOSTLY IN THE 60S,  
WITH A BIT WARMER READINGS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WHERE CLOUDS HAVE  
MORE AGGRESSIVELY THINNED.  
 
NORTHEAST NOAM TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE  
SOUTH ON ITS BACKSIDE, DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  
 
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER (THUNDERSTORM?)  
POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
DETAILS:  
 
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS WE HEAD THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER  
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A  
TOUCH OF EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINS WERE A BIT MORE  
SUBSTANTIAL TODAY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY SOUTH  
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE,  
BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH SOME DIURNALLY-  
DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO DRIVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THAT DIURNAL SUPPORT, CAN'T  
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF  
MIXED LAYER CAPE AND LIMITED INHIBITION THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.  
LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL-PRODUCING LEVELS AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD  
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. A BIT MILDER FRIDAY, WITH  
EXPECTED HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:  
 
PERIOD OF CHANGE AS EARLY WEEKEND OVERHEAD TROUGHING LOOKS TO GET  
REPLACED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
NEARLY FULL RANGE OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE ON  
BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. ABOVE DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A STEADY WARMING  
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF EAST COAST  
SURFACE HIGH ONLY ADDING TO THE WARMING CAUSE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN  
FLOW MATURES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  
 
MAIN FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS...ESPECIALLY ON AN EXPECTED WARMING  
TREND NEXT WEEK.  
 
DETAILS:  
 
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DRY WEEKEND AS LARGE AREA OF CANADA  
ORIGINATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND FRIDAY'S  
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ATTENDANT SLUG OF CANADIAN AIR WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY  
MOSTLY IN THE 60S...TACKING ON JUST A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY.  
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE 30S  
IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WARMING TREND BEGINS IN  
EARNEST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK (HELPED ALONG BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES),  
WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION CONFIRMING MID-RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS OF  
HIGHS UP INTO THE 80S TUESDAY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A  
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH AT LEAST  
SOME SUPPORT FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME  
SHOWERS/STORMS TO ENTER OUR AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND  
MID LEVEL WAVE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL WOULD DEFINITELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES  
AGAIN TO SPIKE WELL INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY. WE SHALL SEE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
VFR FOR NOW. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND FRIDAY.  
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME -SHRA AND PERHAPS A  
TSRA DEVELOPING. NO TS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS  
MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY IF A BETTER SHRA IMPACTS A TAF SITE.  
 
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. A W TO NW BREEZE DEVELOPS FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MSB  
LONG TERM...MSB  
AVIATION...JZ  
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