984
FXUS63 KAPX 210714
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-COOL AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.
-LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER CANADA WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE NORTHWOODS TODAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
UNTIL WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE AMERICAN ROCKIES
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THAT TROUGH WHILE WEAKENING, RESULTING IN LIGHT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA AROUND THIS SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS SUNDAY BEFORE MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND LIFTS NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY AIR INFLUENCE
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWOODS AS HIGHS CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER TODAY. CP AIR
INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL FOR LATE MAY
AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PATCHY FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, FAVORING THE TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS OF THE CWA (HIGHER
TERRAIN, INTERIOR), BUT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER BUILDING FROM THE WEST
DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HINDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFORMENTIONED TROUGHING BUILDING THIS WEEKEND
WILL RETURN LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL SATURDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IN QPF REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA WITH RELATIVELY UNIFORM COVERAGE. PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES NORTHEAST THROUGH SAGINAW
BAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH VORTICITY ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS SUNDAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A
SOUTHERLY AIR INFLUENCE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND RETURNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WEATHER
REMAINS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
PREVAILING VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH JUST LOW
CHANCES FOR A BIT OF BR/FG TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EVENTUAL CALM WINDS -- PRIMARILY AT THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE
TERMINALS (MBL/PLN/APN). MID-CLOUD INCREASES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DEPARTING AGAIN THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020-
021-024>026-030>036-041-042-088-099.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ022-023-
027>029-086-087-095-096.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
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