424
FXUS63 KAPX 160819
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
- WINDY AGAIN SUNDAY BUT TURNING WARMER.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: LARGE SCALE PATTERN UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA; LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
PACIFIC BASIN WITH A +2 SIGMA 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/"PEAKING" +PNA TELECONNECTION. CONSOLIDATING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...PHASE LAG BETWEEN HEIGHT/THERMAL
TROUGHS SUGGEST CONTINUED DEEPENING AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. PRIMARY PV ANOMALY EARLY THIS
MORNING LIES ACROSS MINNESOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
ALONG BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION AXIS OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...1.25-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THOUGH DRIER AIR (IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE) IS NOT FAR UPSTREAM
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM...SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES SPILLING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A 40-50KT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. 0400Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004MB LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER...
COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE THUMB. THOUGH THE LOW
ITSELF IS REMARKABLY STRONG...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND A 1044MB HIGH OVER MONTANA/WYOMING
(WHICH IS STRONG FOR MID OCTOBER/+3 SIGMA MSLP ANOMALY AND A ROUGHLY
30 YEAR RETURN PERIOD).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
WINDY TODAY WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES: THE GALES OF OCTOBER WILL
ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING TOWARD A 5MB/3H PRESSURE
FALL CENTER OVER GEORGIAN BAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ITS WAKE...AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING ASSISTING IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
ANTICIPATING NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TODAY EXPECTED ALONG SHORELINE AREAS EXPOSED TO
ONSHORE FLOW...GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY UP FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES
SAVE FOR THE ST. MARY'S RIVER. RAIN REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
HAS BECOME MORE DRIZZLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER. AS
STRONGER DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVAL...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY
AIDED BY INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE SURROUNDING GREAT LAKES. AT
THIS POINT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WOULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION/THUNDER. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...THOUGH SOME
NORTH FLOW LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON.
WINDY AGAIN SUNDAY BUT TURNING WARMER: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY...WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO MICHIGAN SUNDAY. WIND
GUSTS AGAIN IN THE 25 TO 35+MPH RANGE APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY (AND
LIKELY SOME SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING)...WE
WILL RETURN TO THE RECENT THEME OF OCTOBER WARMTH. SUNDAY'S BREEZY
BUT SUNNY WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
INTO THE 60S (4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK: A PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE
BY MID OCTOBER STANDARDS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY APPROACHING 70 DEGREES
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY WHICH COULD PUT A CRIMP
IN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT LOOKING FOR A
RETURN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WIDESPREAD -RA IS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR VIS AND CIGS DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A FROPA IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MI, TURNING WINDS TO THE N/NW AS IT PASSES FROM NW TO SE. TIMES OF
CIGS AOB 500 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS PASSES THROUGH FROM 08Z
THROUGH 12Z. PERSISTENT -RA WILL CONTINUE OVER KCIU THROUGH MID
MORNING, HOWEVER IT WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AFTER 12Z FOR THE OTHER
TERMINALS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO -SHRA. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH CHANCES FOR VFR NEAR THE END. N/NW WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER 12Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, BECOMING 10 TO 15KTS
WITH G25 TO G30KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 00Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ322.
DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...ELD
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