192
FXUS63 KAPX 261138
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREAD TODAY BEFORE DEPARTING THIS
EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER.
-LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG WINDS, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
-WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND COLD THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CWA. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE 850MB
LEVEL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WILL RESULT IN MIXED PRECIP WHILE
THERMAL PROFILES NORTH OF THE BRIDGE WILL CONTINUE SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS TROUGHING PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...ONGOING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE "TIP OF
THE MITT" AND EASTERN UPPER WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM NOSING WILL SPREAD
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S WILL ALLOW ICE GROWTH OF A GLAZE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
NORTHERN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE SATURATION
PROFILES WITH H8 TEMPERS OF 7-9 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, MORE
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE VALUES, AND MORE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENESIS TO
PRODUCE HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA.
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND WEST OF I-75 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND PART TO THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE U.P WILL HAVE A SHARP CUT OFF OF ACCUMULATIONS RIGHT
ALONG THE LINE OF F-GEN. MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST CONVENTION, THEN CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATION'S REMAIN THE
SAME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH A GENERAL INCH ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE "TIP OF THE MITT", WIDESPREAD 2-4" EXPECTED OVER NORTH OF M-
28 AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF 6-7" NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SUCH AS
WHITEFISH POINT AND THE SOO WHERE THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS.
TONIGHT...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MOISTURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
MODERATELY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS THIS SATURDAY REMAIN MILD AND
QUIET. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. DIURNAL
HEATING PROCESSES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND EVEN 40S FOR THE TYPICALLY WARMER PARTS OF THE CWA. AT
THE SAME TIME, MIDLEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SURFACE LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER
THE PLAINS REGION THIS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH ON
SUNDAY TO REMAIN RAINFALL AS AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEEPENS THIS SUNDAY
WITH A GENERAL TENTH OF SO OF QPF EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
SPREADING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. A
GENERAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WHILE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DELIVER HIGHER TOTALS TO THE
CLASSIC SNOWBELTS. HIGHEST PROBS OF SNOWFALL REMAIN ACROSS THE "BIG
5" (KALKASKA, ANTRIM, CRAWFORD, CHARLEVOIX, AND OTSEGO ALONG WITH
GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES) WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) PROBS OF 4-6+
INCHES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
WILL DEEPEN INTO A LONGWAVE PATTERN POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF CANADA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND HEIGHT DISTURBANCES WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO LIGHT SNOWFALL/FLURRIES WITH PERIODIC
MOMENTS OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL. STILL TO EARLY TO ADVERTISE
ACCUMULATIONS NEXT WEEK, BUT SNOW TOTAL PROBS REMAIN LOWER THAN THIS
MONDAY/TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WELCOME TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SMORGASBORD THAT IS THIS MORNING'S
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN! LOW PRESSURE ZIPPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO MYRIAD PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS
THE BOARD THIS MORNING... WITH SN PREVAILING AT CIU ALONG WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. PLN AND APN WILL CONTEND WITH SN AND PL ALONG
WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING SHOWERS,
ALONG WITH BOUTS OF FZDZ. TVC WILL CONTEND WITH PL AND FZRA AND
FZDZ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LARGELY PREVAILING.
PERHAPS SOME PL WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
MBL, BUT LARGELY FZRA THAT TRENDS TO GOOD OLE FASHIONED RA AS
TEMPS INCH ABOVE 32. LARGELY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THERE AS
WELL. THE WINTRY PRECIP GENERALLY DEVOLVES SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z PENDING WHICH TAF SITE ONE LOOKS AT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO BR, FG, AND FZDZ WITH TIME, LASTING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME, LARGELY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR TO
EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MOST PERSISTENT PERIODS OF FG.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD
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