851
FXUS63 KAPX 072337
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MIDWEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
- TRENDING DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES LOCALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE ZONAL LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
WEAKLY TROUGHED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ATTENDANT NEARLY
STATIONARY/SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND
THURSDAY, GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL LOCALLY.
THAT SAID, LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE'LL BE A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE OR TWO TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST LOW PRECIP CHANCES AS IMPRESSIVE RIDGING/HEAT
DOME BUILDS UPSTREAM OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LOW, BUT NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA,
ALONG WITH A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT'LL CRAWL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.P. WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5-1.75". THIS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SAGS
SOUTH WITH TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GREATEST
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS OVER NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL --
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.P., THE TIP OF THE MITT, PERHAPS STRETCHING DOWN INTO
SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER BY LATE IN THE DAY. WPC MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEST FORCING GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE AXIS OF MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
STORMS OVER A BROADER AREA OF NORTHERN LOWER. WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAIN
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY FEATURES MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4).
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE AXIS OF BEST FORCING
AND INSTABILITY MANIFEST ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, GIVEN
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION.
WHILE THIS THREAT IS AREA-WIDE, IT'S LIKELY HEIGHTENED FOR THOSE
WHERE FFG IS LOWEST AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN SEVERAL DAYS AGO (TIP
OF THE MITT, PARTS OF LEELANAU, ANTRIM, CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES).
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A GLARING THREAT, LIMITED
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND 25-35 KTS OF 0-
6KM SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LINES UP PRETTY
WELL WITH SPC'S LATEST D2 SWO THAT PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER, WITH A HIGHER THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO OUR WEST ACROSS WI. THIS LOW END THREAT MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MI THURSDAY.
TRENDING DRIER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN STORY ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS TIME LIKELY TO BE IMPRESSIVE RIDGING/HEAT DOME BUILDING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NATION'S MIDSECTION (600+ DM
500MB HEIGHTS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY -- SOME +2 TO 3 SIGMA ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN). UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THIS
FEATURE BUILDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PLAY
DRIVER TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
WARMING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LIMITED
PRECIP CHANCES, BUT SHOULD THIS UPPER HIGH REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH
AND WEST, ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AFTER MBL/APN HAD A TOUCH OF FOG THIS MORNING, HAVE SOME BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THOSE SITES OVERNIGHT AGAIN. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING, ESPECIALLY PLN/CIU, WITH HAVE
EXCELLENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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