557
FXUS63 KAPX 191025
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND TRENDING MILDER INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
ONLY GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LONG-WAVE FEATURES SOW
TO BUDGE AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STEADILY BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WE'LL STILL BE DEALING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THIS STRETCH, BUT EVEN THAT BEGINS TO RELAX SOME AS THE PATTERN
TRIES TO BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL BY SUNDAY. AFORMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW A FEW WEAK, FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES TO
SLIP THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME, KEEPING AT LEAST LOW-END CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST... BUT OVERALL, NOTHING
LOOKS TOO IMPACTFUL AT THE MOMENT.
FOR TODAY, ANY INFLUENCE FROM A SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL, WITH TRENDS
CONTINUING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHWEST TRACK. STILL CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/ PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY TODAY, BUT MOST AREAS STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST EARLY
TODAY AND DECREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BIGGER STORY TODAY IS THE CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF
THE AIRMASS AS COLDER ANOMOLIES GET PUSHED FURTHER OUT OF THE
REGION. WITH A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE MIXED IN TODAY,
TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. DEFINITELY A WELCOME REBOUND, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE STILL
DEALING WITH ICE STORM CLEANUP EFFORTS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE NEXT QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THE BETTER FORCING SEEMS TO BE
PUSHED FURTHER NORTHEAST, SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA (EASTERN UPPER, TIP OF THE MITT INTO NORTHEAST LOWER).
RIGHT NOW, EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER, WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE LEAN TOWARDS MAINLY SNOW?
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM (AN INCH OR
LESS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER INTO NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN). HOWEVER, I DO WANT TO NOTE THAT THEIR IS A FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN POTENTIAL THAT COULD FORM WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES SITTING RIGHT AT THE FREEZING MARK... SOMETHING TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES, BUT WITH THE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, THINKING IT SHOULD BE HARD TO GET ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO
COAT SURFACES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY AS
MENTIONED BEFORE, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 40S ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER.
THIS WARMING TREND CARRIES INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS
UPSTREAM RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LO 40S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND LOW 40S TO EVEN LOW 50S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE AGAIN, FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED,
SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES TAKE A SLIGHT STEP BACK FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
DURING THE DAY (ASIDE FROM UPPER, WHICH MAY HANG CLOSER TO THE
LOW 30S). NORTHWEST FLOW STICKS AROUND ALOFT, SO CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE
A BIT AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
ANY LINGERING BR/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND THIS MORNING, KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS MANY INTERIOR AREAS WITH VFR CIGS
ALONG THE LAKESHORES. A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WILL HELP TO CLEAR LOW CLOUDS OUT, LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN LATER TONIGHT AS A SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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