357
FXUS63 KAPX 261801
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
201 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY, AND
PERHAPS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHERN MI IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC. LAST NIGHT'S
COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH...DRAPED FROM NE EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL IL INTO FAR SOUTHERN MI/OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE,
~1037MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. AS
THAT WAVE CONTINUES TO DEPART INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY, THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MI. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TREKS BY
TO OUR NORTH, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LOCALLY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES MAY PRESENT THEMSELVES AT TIMES OVER THE
HALLOWEEN WEEKEND, BUT WITH A WIDE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS POSSIBLE AT
THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE/TIMING.
FORECAST DETAILS: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE BLEMISH TO THIS ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST LOWER
INTO THE EASTERN U.P., AS THAT UPSTREAM WAVE PASSING BY TO OUR WEST
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
LOCALLY, ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST. OTHERWISE, COOLER/NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH AND THROUGH THE 50S
OVER NORTHERN LOWER.
ANOTHER WARM UP FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE. LATEST TRENDS
FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 60S AREA-WIDE WITH A FEW LOWER
70S POSSIBLE. THIS PLACES AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF CLIMATE SITES WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY RECORDS (ANJ, PLN, GLR, HTL). WHILE THURSDAY
- SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE -- GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S FAR NORTH AND THROUGH THE 60S SOUTH.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN MI. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS
LOOKING LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME, BUT STILL WILL BE THE
TIME FRAME THAT FEATURES THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING TOWARD HALLOWEEN, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MENTIONED
ABOVE EXPECTED. SHOWER CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY, BUT LOTS
OF SPATIAL/TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT
WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY BR DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KAPN,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY DROPPING TO MVFR REMAINS LOW. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5000FT TUESDAY MORNING AT KMBL, KTVC,
KAPN, AND KPLN BUT HEIGHTS OF 3500FT WILL BE OBSERVED AT KCIU BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...SJC
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