711  
FXUS63 KAPX 250144  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
944 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  
 
- RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
 
OCCLUDED LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE MINNESOTA/CANADA BORDER LATE  
THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS REACHED WESTERN WISCONSIN...  
WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU GREEN BAY AND  
LOWER MICHIGAN. AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SUB-SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT...REMAINING MOSTLY CONTAINED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ATTM.  
LATEST KAPX BASE REF LOOP SHOWS INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...  
MUCH OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET THANKS TO DRY  
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  
 
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS  
NOW MOVING ONSHORE AROUND FKS AND MBL...MARKING THE LEADING EDGE  
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT.  
THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THRU MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITED THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND  
MINIMAL SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
 
SYNOPSIS/PATTERN: 994MB LOW PRESSURE IS OVER EASTERN ND, MOVING  
NNE. AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SE AND THEN S, ACROSS SE  
MN AND CENTRAL IA. THIS FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN MI SATURDAY  
MORNING. ALOFT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NE-WARD ACROSS UPPER MI  
AND SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.  
 
FORECAST: AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS IS TRYING TO ADVANCE ACROSS  
CENTRAL LAKE MI. OUR LOW AND MID-LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY;  
SURFACE TEMP-DEW POINTS SPREADS ARE AROUND 30F IN SOME INTERIOR  
AREAS. PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS IN NW LOWER MI, MAINLY NEAR/WEST OF M-37. OTHERWISE  
THOUGH, WE'LL JUST PUSH SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA.  
 
OUR PRECIP CHANCES REALLY RAMP UP FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD.  
BETTER/RICHER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS, AS SUB-850MB WINDS BECOME  
MORE SOUTHERLY AND LESS EASTERLY, JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY IS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI, A NARROW  
AXIS OF BETTER CAPE (MUCAPE IN HIGH TRIPLE DIGITS AS FAR NORTH  
AS US-10 TONIGHT) DOES IMPINGE ON THIS AREA. AND THE PIVOTING  
SHORTWAVE PRODUCES HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT, BEFORE WARM/MOIST  
ADVECTION HAS ENDED. CONVECTION WILL REACH THE MBL AREA  
INITIALLY (LATE EVENING), THEN EXPAND E AND N ACROSS ALL OF  
NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A SVR THREAT, WITH  
SUBSTANTIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION. QPF OF AROUND 0.50" WILL BE  
COMMON, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.  
 
HAVE SLOWED DOWN PRECIP DEPARTURE SLIGHTLY VERY LATE TONIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY. EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FROPA, AVAILABLE  
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WILL BE  
MEAGER. DO HANG ONTO SOME SHOWERS A BIT LONGER, AND A BIT  
FURTHER WEST, SAT MORNING. STILL HAVE PRECIP ENTIRELY EXITING BY  
2 PM, WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM W TO E.  
 
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE  
60S TO MID 70S, WARMEST NEAR SAGINAW BAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST: HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN  
SATURDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO CALMER WINDS. SKIES COULD TAKE A  
LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR OUT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR MASS ONLY  
AROUND 5 - 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW  
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
SUNDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CARRY IT  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION (REACHING ONTARIO BY  
MONDAY MIDDAY). SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM WEST TO EAST AND  
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD. MODELS WANT TO ADVECT AROUND 1  
INCH OF PW (MEAN OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY), LEADING TO  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  
BRIEF CLEARING WILL BE SEEN MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING QUICKLY, BRINING MORE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY  
EVENING/NIGHT. LESS CONFIDENCE IN STORMS WITH THIS ROUND. A DEEPER  
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO MN TUESDAY MORNING.  
THIS LOW SWINGS THROUGH AND CONTINUES COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
CLOUDY/RAINY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. POSSIBLY DRYING OUT NEAR THE  
END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/KEY MESSAGES: FOR THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH CHECK  
OUT AS GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY  
KEEPS GETTING CUT OFF BY A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS OF LATE.  
THE INCH OF PW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY HOWEVER,  
JUST MAYBE NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY (WHICH IS ALSO  
REFLECTED IN THE MODELS). SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE  
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY, A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE  
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING CONTINUING OVER THE CWA  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP  
PROVIDE MORE LIFT/INSTABILITY, WHICH COULD HOLD THE STORMS TOGETHER  
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MI. HOWEVER HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS  
TIME LOOK TO BE MARGINAL AND INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, SMALL  
HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
 
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG  
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THRU THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AND THEN TO  
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTION  
IMPACTS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS COLD FRONT AND RESULTING PRECIP EXIT  
OUR REGION. E/SE SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT WILL  
BECOME W/NW ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MLR  
SHORT TERM...JZ  
LONG TERM...ELD  
AVIATION...MLR  
 
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