191
FXUS63 KAPX 171514
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1114 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
RINSE AND REPEAT - THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. CU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORES. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY
(NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER). A LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
NORTHEAST WIND FIELD WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY
WITH INLAND PENETRATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCING A LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS UP THE SPINE OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERCOLATE FATHER NORTH UP
THE I-75 AND US-131 CORRIDORS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS WELL -- LARGELY TIED TO AN INLAND
CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR THE MACKINAC/CHIPPEWA COUNTY LINE.
WITH RESPECT TO STORM CHANCES, AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, THINK THAT
ANY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING GIVEN LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG
MLCAPE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A NEAR CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY EXPECTED
FOR THE DAY AHEAD AS CLOSED-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND...EVENTUALLY EJECTING STAGE RIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, BROAD/AMPLIFIED RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS BEFORE A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
AGAIN TODAY -- PRIMARILY INLAND AREAS.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT THIS EARLY HOUR WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND IN AREAS THAT SAW
SCATTERED CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AREA-WIDE. HOWEVER, CU DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY BY LATE MORNING AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY
FOCUSED ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY (NORTHEAST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL LOWER). A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SYNOPTIC NORTHEAST WIND FIELD WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH
A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERCOLATE FATHER NORTH UP THE I-75 AND US-131
CORRIDORS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS
WELL -- LARGELY TIED TO AN INLAND CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR THE
MACKINAC/CHIPPEWA COUNTY LINE.
WITH RESPECT TO STORM CHANCES, AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, THINK THAT
ANY MORE ROBUST/LONGER-LASTING UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING GIVEN LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTING UP TO AROUND 500
J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
CU AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL. OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL
LIKELY BE STREAMING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS AT TIMES DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...TIED TO AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN WI
AND THE WESTERN UP. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE AGAIN...
RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER/INTERIOR
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL ATTM...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
HANDFUL OF LITTLE SWIRLIES (I.E., VORT MAXES) IN THE FLOW ACROSS
CANADA AS OF LAST EVENING...WITH MOST NOTEWORTHY ONES CROSSING INTO
ALBERTA, ANOTHER TREKKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, AND ANOTHER JUST
NORTH OF MN IN QUEBEC AS OF 02Z/17 (THIS LATTER ONE WITH SOME
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE)...THOUGH THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA. PERHAPS EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK NIBLETS STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN US AS
WELL, AMID SIGNALS FOR SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DAKOTAS NIBLET...THOUGH
ONLY WEAK SURFACE RESPONSES WITH NEARLY ALL OF THESE PERTURBATIONS.
MEANWHILE...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SPIN OFF THE EAST COAST, WITH CONTINUED LIFT/MOISTURE SPREADING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF IT; SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS IS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BEING FUNNELED IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A HUDSON
BAY HIGH...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL DIURNAL ACTIVITY, AS WE
SAW EARLIER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AS SOME ENERGY MOVED THROUGH ALOFT
AMID AN OTHERWISE STEREOTYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH GOOD DIURNAL
HEATING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET RESPONSE IS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHERE A NW-SE ORIENTED 80+KT UPPER
LEVEL JET RESIDES NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH GREATER JET RESPONSE IS UPSTREAM ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF TROUGHING HOLDING FIRM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...IN AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
WEAK ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AMID GREATEST
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US...AND IN THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOOKING FORWARD...WILL WATCH TROUGHING JUST TO OUR EAST CONTINUE TO
SPIN LITTLE NIBLETS OF ENERGY DOWN INTO OUR AREA...KEEPING THINGS
JUST SHORT OF PERFECTLY QUIET, WEATHER-WISE, THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS OR SO...ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AS OTHER UPSTREAM
NIBLETS DO THE SAME. NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS A VORT MAX THAT DROPS
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK TOWARD THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO NIBLETS PASSING THROUGH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF IT DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FIRST, THIS SHOULD FORCE THE CURRENT
CLOSED-LOW TO OUR EAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT
IT APPEARS THIS SECOND NIBLET WILL BECOME LARGELY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW AS WELL...AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IT SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH.
SO WILL LOOK FOR THIS NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST TO BE SLOW TO MEANDER
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND. WE
MAY GET INTO SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF IT, THOUGH THE OVERALL
SUGGESTION IS THERE THAT WE MAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST SUB-
PERFECTLY-QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MAINLY DIURNAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...
WEAK NIBLET SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE MORE POTENT ONE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE OUR
NEXT MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH FORCING, THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS IT SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FLOW FRIDAY APPEARS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FOR A CHANGE,
WHICH SHOULD HELP RELEGATE MOST LAKE BREEZE CONCERNS TO THE SUNRISE
SIDE. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUPPORT INCREASED BUOYANCY THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND HELPS REALIZE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UP AND NW LOWER. SAME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TENDENCY, IN THE PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE,
COULD HELP POP SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN BATCH...THOUGH ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS MUCH DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
YOU GO. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SIGNALS FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES...SUGGESTING THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE,
TOO. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION AS
WELL...NOTING PWATS AGAIN POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 1.25" (AS SOME OF
THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO OUR NORTHWEST BLEEDS SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH
TIME), WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WITH
THIS...THOUGH SIGNALS ATTM ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT, ASIDE FROM WEAK FLOW/SHEAR ALOFT THAT COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER AN AREA FOR A TIME. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES
AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
NW LOWER OVERNIGHT.
GOING INTO FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SET UP AND MEANDER ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIAL NUISANCE PRECIP/THUNDER HANGING ON, WHICH COULD/SHOULD BE
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS WHERE SURFACE-
BASED/MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE FEATURES SET UP (SUCH AS LAKE BREEZES),
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES LOW-LEVEL THETA-E WITH TIME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS SURFACE RESPONSE TO OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INDICATE BETTER THUNDER POTENTIAL
FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WETTER
FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE CLOSED LOW SPLITS OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM...AS THERE COULD BE SOME KIND OF WEAK BOUNDARY/BCZ
DRIFTING THROUGH WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER FORCING FROM THAT SURFACE
REFLECTION TO OUR WEST. TIMING AND HOW QUICKLY WE MOISTEN UP/HOW
MUCH DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WILL BE THE KEY TO PRECIP POTENTIAL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SIGNALS
LOOK DECENT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL IF/ONCE IT STARTS...WITH
CONTINUED WEAK FLOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OTHER CONCERNS SAVE FOR
PERHAPS SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHTS, ESPECIALLY
WHEREVER IT RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CLEARS OUT AFTER DARK...
IS POTENTIAL LOW AFTERNOON RHS...AS GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT
AND SLOW-TO-CHANGE PATTERN (EVEN DESPITE THE NIBLET DROPPING IN), AT
LEAST THURSDAY COULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND WILL LARGELY LEAN
TOWARD PERSISTENCE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE
FOR A DRIER DAY YET ON THURSDAY AT LEAST. (CAVEAT IS THAT THAT
PARTICULAR PIECE OF GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO BEGIN WITH...SO WON'T GO HOG WILD ON DROPPING TDS/RHS ATTM...BUT
WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE, WHICH IS A SMIDGEN LOWER THAN
CONSENSUS.) WILL LIKELY HOLD TO PERSISTENCE FOR MAX TS AS WELL FOR
THURSDAY...SIGNALING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DRY DAYS,
TWO OUT OF THREE AIN'T BAD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVERALL TO PRECLUDE MEETING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT
GOING FORWARD. CONTINUED AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
OF CONCERN TO ANY FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL ATTM...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
GUIDANCE DEFINITELY LIKES THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY
GETTING CUT-OFF AND BECOMING SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST TOWARD
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND RIGHT ON INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UP FOR GRABS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS
ENDS UP SETTING UP, AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES ON THROUGH, WILL
DETERMINE HOW IT IMPACTS OUR WEATHER HERE IN THE MITTEN...THOUGH
HAVE TO SUSPECT WE WON'T BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY AVOID
IT...PARTICULARLY AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WITH TIME AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES/CROSSES THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY TO OUR SOUTH (WHICH SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT GUIDANCE SIGNALS). MEANWHILE...FURTHER
UPSTREAM, IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER BIT OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
PACNW BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO SOME DEGREE...WHILE BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGHING SPINS OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND MAY BEGIN TO SEND
NIBLETS OUR WAY TO EFFECTIVELY "PICK UP" THE CLOSED LOW IN OUR
REGION...AS ADDITIONAL TROUGHING SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HELPS AMPLIFY THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AGAIN...THOUGH
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
ANY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TERMINALS. SOME GENERALLY HI-BASED CU ALONG WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES POTENTIALLY TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DOMINATE TODAY. LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY TURN WINDS
MORE ONSHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
UPDATE...JK
NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...MJG
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