683
FXUS63 KAPX 050720
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
220 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THIS MORNING BEFORE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL CREEPS IN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
- RENEWED PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS (COLD/SNOW/WIND), LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN POTENTIALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TYPE
ISSUES.
DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
STOUT NW TO SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNING WITH STRONG JET
STREAK WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT CONSISTING OF TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AS FAR NORTH AS EDMONTON, ALBERTA INTERACTING WITH DOMINANT
POLAR AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND NORTH INTO ONTARIO TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MANITOBA. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW
THAT DIRECTS TRAFFIC THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING DEEP ARCTIC AIR OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND MILDER PACIFIC AIR OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERN CORN
BELT WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS
PARTICULAR WAVE, COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING WITHIN A
ZONE OF FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT JET QUADRANT DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A
ZONE OF PROLONGED SATURATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE'S PASSAGE, MINIMAL FORCING
AND CONTINUED LINGERING MOISTURE WITHIN THE CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL LEAD TO A "LULL" OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE... AND
MINIMAL TO NO ICE CRYSTAL ACTIVATION PROCESSES MATERIALIZE.
AS THE AFORMENTIONED DEEPENING CYCLONE APPROACHES JAMES BAY, IT WILL
FORCE THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN, COMPLETE WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SYNOPTIC SNOW... BUT ALSO USHERS IN A DEEP ARCTIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY, CARRYING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SURGES INTO THE REGION.
FORECAST BREAKDOWN OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING, THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY:
TODAY / THIS EVENING: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE GENERALLY FAVORS AREAS WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND
MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS REGION, GIVEN THE SLIGHT
ADVANTAGE OF BETTER SNOWFALL DYNAMICS, WILL PROBABLY SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION, SNOW IS STILL ANTICIPATED, BUT GENERALLY PROBABLY WINDS UP
WITH 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THIS PERIOD OF SNOW PASSES (GENERALLY AFTER 20Z / 4PM), WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION ACTIVITY TO FLURRIES MIXING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. AS SUCH, WE MAY BE CONTENDING WITH A
GLAZE OF ICE ON TOP OF THIS SNOWFALL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30 INTO TONIGHT, AND
LIKELY PLATEAU THERE.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
OVERSPREADS FROM NW TO SE, AND AGAIN WITH BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE FAVORING WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CREEP HIGHER INTO THE MORNING AS
SNOW FALLS, LIKELY POKING TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOT OF
AREAS SOUTH OF M-72, POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS M-32. TOTAL
SNOWFALL... AGAIN 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THIS COMES TO A
SCREECHING HALT AS THE ARCTIC FRONT FORCES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT SWITCH IN WIND
DIRECTION FROM SW TO NW AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED (GUSTS POSSIBLE
35 TO 40MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON), AND BRING PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... ALL ACCOMPANIED BY WHAT
WILL PROBABLY BE A PRETTY PRONOUNCED SUDDEN BURST OF SNOW LATE IN
THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL
BRING ABOUT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONCERNS FROM BLOWING / DRIFTING SNOW,
REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
SEE A LITTLE MELTING ACTION FROM THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES...
BECAUSE BY FRIDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE FREEFALLING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...
HAMPERING ROAD TREATMENT EFFECTIVENESS, AND PRODUCING DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THAT PUSH OR EVEN EXCEED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL PROBABLY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BY
FRIDAY EVENING, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CARRY ON
THROUGH THE SNOWBELTS, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND IN THE
OTHER DIRECTION FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES... RESULTING IN
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW PROBABLY BEING MORE OF A "BABY POWDER"
COMPOSITION WITHIN A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME (TARGETING GT
BAY REGION WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT).
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY: DADGUM COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TEENS AT BEST FOR MOST. PROBABLY DRY FOR MOST ASIDE FROM
SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH / DOWNWIND OF GT BAY...
THOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, NOT ANTICIPATING THIS ACTIVITY TO
BE OVERLY ROBUST. RETURN FLOW BUILDS SUNDAY, SIGNALING WHAT WILL BE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RELAXATION OF THE DEEP ARCTIC PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN CONTENDING WITH SINCE MID JANUARY. THAT BEING SAID, CONTINUED
INTRUSIONS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WITH
THE REGIME (COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS),
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SUNDAY... AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL WAVES SET TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES POKING ABOVE NORMAL (AND ABOVE FREEZING TOO), THAT
OPENS THE DOOR FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
AREAS OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY THROUGH 18Z. LOWER CIGS
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZE DRIZZLE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...JK
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