632
FXUS63 KAPX 161052
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...
- RAIN AND STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
RIDGE GETTING SQUASHED OVER THE PACNW AS A ZONAL 120KT UPPER JET
NOSES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA (NICE FIREHOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN CANADA); BROAD TROUGHING STILL HOLDING ONTO THE BULK OF THE
EASTERN US/CANADA, CENTERED ON A 540DM UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA. NORTHWESTERLY 80-100KT POLAR JET MAX ON THE BACK OF THE
UPPER LOW, STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO IL AND THE OH
VALLEY...AND A ZONAL 120KT SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN
MO TO VA...WITH MUCH WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US (PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2IN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES).
STILL SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST (A NEAT LITTLE SPINNY
OVER CENTRAL MN AT 4Z) AND SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A BIT OF ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO STILL SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH, LOOSELY CONNECTED TO
SAID MN SPINNY...AND SOME MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG A LOOSE WSW-ENE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH WEAKENING
STABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO COOLING ALOFT AND SOME WSWLY
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS (16C AT 2Z OVER WESTERN
IA). CONVECTION STILL ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS EVEN AS OF 4Z. 0C
ISOTHERM NOW TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT SOME COOLER
(+8C) AIR WRAPPING AROUND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SPINNY IN MN,
AIDING IN A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE RESPONSE (PLUS PV MAX IS A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED)...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING BACK NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. LOW-LEVEL COL REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH SOME WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO.
EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF PV
MAXIMA TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME
AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE CYCLONE OCCLUDES IN THE
VICINITY...ULTIMATELY FADING OUT TONIGHT AS THE PV MAX MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. UPSTREAM...WILL ALREADY BE SEEING
INFLUENCE OF INCOMING PV MAX ON THE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US/MS
VALLEY, WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS, SUB-1000MB SURFACE LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING (3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
THE MEAN...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT). ATTM...THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
ATTENDANT RAIN/STORMS...EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT
FALL-LIKE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ADDITIONAL NIBLETS OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND FORECAST ATTM REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR, PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONTINENT...THOUGH VERY BROADLY, IT APPEARS WE COULD REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
COULD KEEP THINGS A BIT ON THE ACTIVE SIDE.
FORECAST DETAILS...
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...THINK WE SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
(OR AT LEAST, MID-CLOUDS) SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY AROUND 12Z-ISH)...THOUGH ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS COULD
SLOW RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS MORNING'S
ACTIVITY IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IT WILL LEAVE AROUND GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON; CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IT COULD KEEP THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS
MORE STABLE AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON STORMS TO SOME DEGREE
(THOUGH THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY/WEAK STABILITY
ALOFT FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH). DO WONDER IF THE DRY AIR COULD
BUST UP THE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/CONVECTION QUICKER AND LEAD TO A
QUICKER REBOUND IN DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
HUNDRED JOULES OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING ALOFT
GENERALLY IMPROVES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH CLOUD TRENDS TODAY, TO SEE IF THE BETTER DIURNAL HEATING WILL
BE ACROSS NE LOWER/SAGINAW BAY REGION OR ACROSS NW LOWER IN THE WAKE
OF WHAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...AND THINK WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THINGS, EVEN THOUGH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
BE TO OUR SOUTH. I HAVE TO WONDER IF WE WILL END UP WITH ANY
PERSISTENT FUNKY BOUNDARIES (WATCHING ONE DRAPE INTO THE TIP OF THE
MITT AS OF 7Z...BUT WILL IT STICK AROUND??) THAT COULD ENHANCE LOW-
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AS THE ANTICIPATED
SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH...BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE I AM
OVERWORRYING ABOUT THIS LATTER IDEA.
RAIN AND STORM THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY....SHARP RIDGE AXIS
TONIGHT, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR, SUGGESTS MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW TO MOVE IN...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS SHOULD BE A
VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM, DON'T THINK IT WILL TAKE TOO LONG TO GET GOING.
THIS HAS A BIT MORE OF A LOOK OF A FALL SYSTEM THAN A MID-JUNE
SYSTEM, WITH A WELL-DEFINED AND OCCLUDING LOW, STRONG JET ALOFT
(100+KTS) WITH SIGNALS FOR JET COUPLING IN THE REGION, ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. PWATS IN THE REALM OF 1-1.5IN
WITH THIS SETUP IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY NOTING WE
COULD END UP IN THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AREA FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD...PERHAPS INTO 12Z OR SO THURSDAY? BETTER MOISTURE AND
FORCING COULD CERTAINLY END UP STAYING TO OUR SOUTH...AND
ANTICIPATED VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH COULD ROB AT LEAST SOME
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM US. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...WHICH THROWS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE WIND
FORECAST (NOT IMPOSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED E/SE WINDS 15-20KTS
OR MORE IF WE END UP BENEATH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT
ALSO POSSIBLE WE COULD REMAIN UNDER A LIGHTER WIND REGIME. GIVEN THE
SETUP, THINK WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHEN SOME BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE CLOSE
TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOTS OF SKC THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHER CLOUD BASES SHOULD
ENSURE PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 00Z. THAT BEING SAID... LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BE ABLE TO SPARK OFF SOME
SHRA THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TSRA
AT ALL SITES ASIDE FROM CIU. TEMPORARY FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENT A DOWNPOUR OR TSRA PASSES OVER
A TAF SITE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EVENTUALLY
KNOCKING THINGS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ345-346.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD
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