878
FXUS63 KAPX 041044
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- YET ANOTHER EARLY SPRING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY.
- COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK (MORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES??).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...WITH A ZONAL NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS CANADA AND A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. FLOW
CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC BETWEEN ALASKA AND HAWAII WITH SOME SMALL SCALE REX BLOCKING
OVER ALASKA WHICH WILL HAVE SOME DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS FOR US NEXT WEEK.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WITH
100+M/12H HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM. RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PULLING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6-
7C/KM). TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +12C ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER... AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BASIN ALONG A SHARP DEFORMATION AXIS. 0200Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1008MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARD A 2-3MB/3H PRESSURE RISE CENTER TO ITS NORTHEAST. WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO. 1035MB
HIGH WEST OF JAMES BAY PROVIDING NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COMPACT LOW WILL BE THE INITIAL FEATURE OF
INTEREST AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. SMALL BLOCKING HIGH NORTH OF ALASKA FORECAST
TO BRIDGE WITH BUILDING RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL SEND
SOME LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR INTO MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK (IT BEING APRIL NOT JANUARY LOOKING AT 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND
540DAM AS OPPOSED TO SUB-500DAM WINTER COLD AIR OUTBREAK).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE MIDWEEK ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND SURFACE TENDENCY DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST IOWA
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK PROBABLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH/ WEST THAN
THURSDAY'S SYSTEM; FROM THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER THIS
MORNING...UP LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN UPPER/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE OCCLUDING TONIGHT. COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR THE UPPER LAKES EASTER SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD PUSH FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR MASS TRAJECTORY. LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE STATE TUESDAY...THEN MILDER SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE LOW WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS MICHIGAN AROUND THURSDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
YET ANOTHER EARLY SPRING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TODAY: PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS
WISCONSIN TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX GETS PULLED UP THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...HELPED BY
SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING WITH A 110KT JET STREAK
ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS A RESULT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT CONVECTION WITH
500-1000J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. 0000Z APX SOUNDING HAD A DRY ELEVATED WARM NOSE AROUND 6K
FEET DEEP ABOVE 850MB...SO SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT
WARM ADVECTION DEFINITELY ONGOING OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH +3 SIGMA PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES
GETTING DRAWN INTO NORTHERN LOWER. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN WITH DRIER AIR IMPINGING FROM THE
WEST THINGS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST (DRIZZLE/FOG) THOUGH
WON'T RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE ISSUE
ONCE AGAIN WILL BE FREEZING RAIN WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT. AS
OF 0700Z TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S WITH ONLY KGLR/KMCD
AT 32F...WITH SOME INITIAL GLAZING ONGOING OUTSIDE THE WINDOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO OR A DEGREE BELOW 32F REMAINS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER NORTH
OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR. CURRENT THINKING IS TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY (EXPECTING TO
SEE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 50+ HIGHS
ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72)...WITH PARTS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY PROBABLY
HANGING ON TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DO
NOT SEE A NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING NORTHERN LOWER
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/EASTERN UPPER ICE STORM WARNING...NOW IS
JUST TIME TO LET THINGS PLAY OUT.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS:
SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM SOME INSTABILTY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FOR EASTER
SUNDAY; NOT SURE WHY THE NBM IS SO RETICENT TO ADD POPS TO THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF SOME DECENT
LOOKING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS (AND MONDAY FOR THAT MATTER) SO HAVE
TAKEN MATTERS INTO MY OWN HANDS (I AM GOING TO MISS THE SREF POPS
ONCE THEY GO AWAY IN THE NEAR FUTURE). COLD FRONT USHERING IN AN
EARLY SPRING ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP INTO THE STATE AT SOME POINT
MONDAY...IF EARLY ENOUGH COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO WILL SET UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...JUST IN CASE WE WERE MISSING IT.
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK (MORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES??): WARM AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY...BUT
OF COURSE ALONG WITH IT WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. AS
OF NOW THIS EVENT WILL INVOLVE ANOTHER PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS BUT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MORE JUST A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT WITH THE
DRIVING SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO THE NORTH (AVOIDING
BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THUS THE
FREEZING RAIN INTERMEDIARY). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT THIS IS MORE LIKELY DUE TO MODEL
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY/HEDGING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE TODAY, AND CIGS/VSBYS
WILL TEND TO WORSEN. FZRA WILL BE SEEN AT CIU INTO MID
AFTERNOON, PLN UNTIL NEAR NOON, BEFORE BECOMING RAIN. LOWEST
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, NEAR A PASSING
COLD FRONT, WITH LIFR AT TIMES AT MOST SPOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO IFR AND MVFR WITH TIME TONIGHT.
GUSTY SE WINDS THIS MORNING. GUST SW, W, AND NW WINDS LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LLWS EARLY TODAY MBL/TVC.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ016>018-021>024-097>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ027>030.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ086>088-
095-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
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