459
FXUS63 KAPX 280344
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1144 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING COLD THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
- RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE,
WET WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
QUICK RETURN TO WINTER, WITH OVERHEAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND
CANADA ORIGINATED HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES READINGS ONLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. CLOUDS
ARE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. DISJOINTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SOME OF WHICH IS STARTING TO IMPACT PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINISHES ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERHEAD TROUGHING
VACATES THE PREMISES EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING.
STILL TRENDS SUPPORTING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS ENERGY BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF WESTERN TROUGHING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
INITIAL FOCUS ON SNOW SHOWER TRENDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER BECOMES THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SOUTHEAST DIVING SURFACE
TROUGH, SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION, AND DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY...WITH THE
BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL OF THESE CENTERED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD EASILY SEE A
PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITIES WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, EXACERBATED
BY SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT DURATION OF INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED...LIKELY NOT MUCH MORE
THAN AN INCH. HOWEVER, DEFINITELY COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AS
ROADS BECOME QUICKLY SNOW-COVERED. SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY MONITOR
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SUPPOSE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE UP IN NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY GIVEN UPWARDS OF 7K FOOT
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS AND DECENT OMEGA CENTERED IN THE TOP OF THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WHILE RAPIDLY BACKING FLOW WITHIN
INTENSIFYING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENDS ANY LAKE NONSENSE
HEADING THROUGH SATURDAY, SECONDARY FAST MOVING WAVE MAY BRING A FEW
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STILL QUITE CHILLY FOR THE END OF MARCH, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40.
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS REALIZED AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS BOTH AFTERNOONS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT COOLER NORTH OF THAT BIG
BRIDGE. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEVELOPING MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, HELPING DRIVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. DPROG'S/DT'S OF NEARLY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS FOR A WARMER SOLUTION...SUPPORTING RAIN AS THE
DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. MAY EVEN HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AS WELL AS THE AREA POTENTIAL GETS INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
THE SYSTEM. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY PASSING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SIMPLY
WILL SEE WHERE TRENDS TAKE US.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
NW TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THRU REST OF THE
NIGHT, ESP FOR TVC, CIU, AND APN; OCCASIONAL IFR WITH THESE. THINK
LINGERING MVFR CLOUD BASES WILL TRY TO SCT BY MORNING, THOUGH MID
CLOUDS (BASES AROUND 5-10KFT) WILL BE IN AND OUT THRU THE DAY, ESP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THRU. BEST CHANCE
FOR SN WITH THIS WILL BE ACROSS CIU/PLN/APN AFTER 21-0Z, WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR TVC/MBL, WHERE IT MAY BE TOO DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS
FOR SN TO REACH GROUND. HAVE CONCERNS FOR LLWS AFTER 21-0Z WITH
SW/WSW 40KT JET AROUND 1500FT MOVING IN; NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS COULD
MIX TO THE GROUND BUT THINK SETUP IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR IT STAYING
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, NW TO WNW SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE W BY MORNING AND SHIFT TO SW AND S THRU AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...FEF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page