172
FXUS63 KAPX 221048
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
648 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SEASONABLY NORMAL FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES BUILD THIS WEEK NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
A MIDLEVEL SPLIT FLOW-PATTERN BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHING SPANS THE SOUTHERN U.S. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
SUPPORT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THIS MORNING AND CAUSE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. H8 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND PROGRESS SOUTH THIS
MORNING AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE
APPALACHIANS MOVES DOWNSTREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
MOST AREAS WHILE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. OTHER THAN IDEAL FALL
CONDITIONS FOR HARDWOOD COLOR DEVELOPMENT, NO OUT-OF-THE-ORDINARY OR
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HINT AT LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS
A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY
APPRECIABLE (IF ANY) RAINFALL REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION
REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BKN/SCT LOW CLOUDS CLOSE TO MVFR
THRESHOLDS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE ENE
THIS MORNING, GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ018-024-
030-036-042.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ086-087-095-
096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-
349.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page