879
FXUS63 KAPX 181921
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGELY DRY WEATHER CARRYING PAST MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND.
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES SET FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WELL-DEFINED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENDANT ~1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER
MO/WESTERN IL WITH ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN MI. THIS SYSTEM PRETTY QUICKLY RACES EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH HEIGHTS
RISING ALOFT AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVERHEAD LOCALLY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF APX'S FOOTPRINT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. PERHAPS MANISTEE TO GLADWIN CAN SQUEEZE A FLURRY
OR SPRINKLE OUT, BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. OTHERWISE, AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE BULK OF NORTHERN MI
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID-TEENS TO MID-20S (COOLEST INLAND/WARMEST NEAR THE
LAKES). LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO THE LOW 40S AREA-WIDE UNDER
INITIAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH FOCUS TURNING TO AN INCOMING NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE SITUATED ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THIS WAVE, AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION, EXPECTED TO BARREL EAST INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO ON THURSDAY, ULTIMATELY DRAGGING A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BRIEF
SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THAT FRONT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HAVING ITS SIGHTS SET ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION'S MIDSECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DAY 2-3 (WED. NIGHT THROUGH THU. NIGHT): A SLOW UPTICK IN CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CERTAINLY LOOKS AS IF THE COMBINATION OF
BEST MOISTURE/FORCING REMAINS DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS A RESULT,
HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME, TAPERING THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
DAY 4-7 (FRIDAY - MONDAY): NOT A BIG COOLDOWN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL
TO -6 TO -9 C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN U.P. --
LIKELY PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF AT A MINIMUM SOME
LAKE CLOUDS AND LIKELY AT LEAST A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS (DESPITE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ABOVE A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
INVERSION). GREATER UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A PRETTY BIG SPREAD EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL WAVE(S) AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL LARGELY
CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
PREVAILING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...NSC
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