025
FXUS63 KAPX 100427
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1227 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES
RISE INTO THE 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EVACUATE TO THE SOUTH, LEAVING A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS, COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF EARLY MORNING
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY WITH
SOME VERTICAL GROWTH. SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD
AGGRESSIVELY CAP MOST OF THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS; HOWEVER, A FEW SELECT
AREAS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AS THE CAP ERODES SOMEWHAT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS. CONSEQUENTLY, A 15% POP HAS BEEN INCLUDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
EITHER WAY, ANY SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL.
EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY, FEATURING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMIDITY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS
BULGING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING—CLIMBING FROM THE LOW TO MID-80S
ON SATURDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.
THE MOST IMPRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BULGE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ~594 DECAMETER HEIGHT CONTOUR MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ACCORDINGLY, PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION (WITH LOCALIZED WARMER SPOTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING). WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE
60S, HEAT INDICES WILL PUSH INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN THE
FORMIDABLE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER HIGH.
CLIMATE NOTE: RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AT MOST OF OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE WELL INTO THE 100S—INCLUDING
AN IMPRESSIVE 107°F AT HOUGHTON LAKE (KHTL) ON JULY 13, 1936. WE CAN
THANK THE REFORESTATION OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SINCE THE LOGGING ERA
FOR HELPING MODERATE OUR MODERN TEMPERATURE EXTREMES.
BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK, THE CENTER OF THE ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
SHIFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO RIDE THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN
ALL, EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE/TIMING REMAINS
LOW AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
PATCHY FG/BR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT -- PERHAPS MOST LIKELY AT MBL -- AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANY FG/BR DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN TAF SITES FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH-COMPONENT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...DJC
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