638
FXUS63 KAPX 090403
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1203 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
DEEP MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA, SETTING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UP FOR A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS.
A MYRIAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT, LARGELY INFLUENCED BY
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THE DAY AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.
TONIGHT LIKELY FEATURES THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
PWATS SURGING TOWARD 200% OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS TO
12K+ AND SKINNY CAPE - OVERALL A FAVORABLE LOOK FOR HEAVY RAIN.
THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE A VERY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCER AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN ANY
AREAS WITH ANTECEDENT HIGH SOIL MOISTURES FROM RECENT RAINS
(LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT). LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA, FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLOWING
ANY SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT. THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN FOCUS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY THROUGH THURSDAY, A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT (DUE TO
PRECIPITATION LOADING).
A NICE SUMMER WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. GENERALLY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL, WITH A SLIGHT RISE IN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY COULD
BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR A SHOWER OR STORM BUT MOST OF THAT
APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST. RISING HUMIDITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT, WITH HEAT INDICES
LIKELY PUSHING WELL INTO THE 90S (OR HIGHER). SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEK,
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE STRONGEST AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED (MUCH LIKE OCCURRED A WEEK AGO). THE CAP
BREAKS DOWN BY MIDWEEK AND "RIDGE RUNNER" CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS (INCLUDING MBL) AND WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS
THE ENVIRONMENT MOISTENS OVERNIGHT, DROPPING CIGS TO IFR/LIFR FOR
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY BECOMING VFR FOR ALL TAF
SITES THURSDAY EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...DJC
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