202
FXUS63 KAPX 262325
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
725 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH SOME SLICK SPOTS
POSSIBLE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- MUCH MILDER WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK; ACTIVE AND WET
PATTERN POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
NEAR TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING, ANY RESIDUAL WATER FROM THE DAYTIME RAIN WILL QUICKLY
FREEZE. SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW, RESULTING IN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES (MAINLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
COASTLINE).
PATTERN DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE HEAT DOME ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, WITH AN ACTIVE
PACIFIC JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A QUICK
HITTING SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA. A FEW WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITHIN A MOISTURE STARVED
ENVIRONMENT, ALTHOUGH WITH SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ENOUGH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE AS WELL. EXPECT
AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIGGER STORY FOR MOST PEOPLE DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE THE VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MUCH MILDER WEATHER WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEKEND
HEADING INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND A WARMER RETURN
FLOW BEGINS. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 60S BY MONDAY
(COOLER EASTERN UPPER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S). WE BEGIN TO
SEE THE MAKINGS FOR A POSSIBLE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK AS LOWER HEIGHTS AND STORMINESS MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST (HOPEFULLY BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO
THE WESTERN CONUS). AS THIS PATTERN CHANGE TAKES SHAPE, WE WILL SEE
A MORE ACTIVE (AND WETTER) PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. WITH A STILL
LARGE RESERVOIR OF COLD AIR SITTING ACROSS CANADA, THERE IS
ALWAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE MISCHIEF IN
NORTHERN MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA) WITH
ANY OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE CASE
AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF MODEL SPREAD IN VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS, SO JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WITH A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
SUBTLE BOUNDARY STILL STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UP OF MI ATTM
WITH NW/NNW WINDS 10-20KT GUST 20-30KT AHEAD OF IT...TO TURN MORE TO
THE N AND NNE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS IT SINKS SOUTH/FADES OUT...ESP
FOR CIU/PLN. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ESP
FURTHER NORTH, AND NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME FOG DEVELOPS AT CIU OR
PLN TONIGHT. THINK N/NNE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING, ESP FOR TVC WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THRU 5-6Z. WINDS GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD
10-12Z FRI WITH MOST AREAS GOING SCT MVFR OR ENTIRELY VFR WITH A
CLOUD DECK AROUND 8-10KFT. AFTER THIS, POTENTIAL FOR A SHIFT TO
SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CROSSES LAKE
SUPERIOR...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AND SHSN BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR CIU/PLN/APN IN PARTICULAR AFTER 18Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...FEF
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