438
FXUS63 KAPX 251154
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
754 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
- WARM, HUMID, AND ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST; 594DM
RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. STILL BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW -- ONE OVER MANITOBA,
ONE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN MN, WI, CHICAGO/SOUTH BEND AREA,
ONE OVER AR, ANOTHER OVER GEORGIAN BAY, AND YET MORE DOWNSTREAM OVER
QUEBEC AND OFF THE EAST COAST. 100KT NWLY UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL
US WITH YET STRONGER JET BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. SOME MOISTURE
STILL TRAPPED BENEATH THE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS FROM MN TO NORTHERN
MI...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE/PWATS SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INTERACTING WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERALL,
THOUGH...EVEN IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS, WITH 850MB/700MB JET MAXES ONLY
TOPPING OUT AROUND 20-40KTS, RESPECTIVELY, AS OF 5Z. STILL A BIT OF
SUBTLE THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI/THUMB REGION AT
THIS HOUR AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY TREKKING EASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL WI, WITH SOME MILD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HANGING ON ACROSS
CENTRAL/SE LOWER AND ALSO NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT. HIGH PRESSURE
OTHERWISE IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA.
PESKY TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION A BIT TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE...EXITING INTO CANADA
OVERNIGHT AND LEAVING A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. A COUPLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD KEEP ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL...BUT THINK THINGS WILL LARGELY QUIET DOWN WITH TIME
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR
A SUBTLE PERTURBATION TO RIDE THE LINGERING BOUNDARY INTO THE
MIDWEST GOING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON; PRIMARY SURFACE RESPONSE ATTM
APPEARS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME
INDICATION OF SOME SUBTLE PV ACTIVITY UP OUR WAY, TOO. UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACNW WILL THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPSTREAM WARM
ADVECTION ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SOME
SIGNALS THIS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA. OVERALL, ANTICIPATE THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY EVEN FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION. INCREASED RETURN FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD SET UP A GOOD GULF TAP...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR CONTINUED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A PV MAXIMUM
EJECTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. WOULD
LIKE TO SAY THIS WILL BE THE END OF IT, BUT RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO
GENERALLY HOLD STEADY ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/HUMID PATTERN WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
EASTERN US INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS...
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
TODAY WITH PV MAXIMA WRAPPING INTO THE REGION. ONE AREA SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EUP/TIP OF THE MITT REGION, ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT/DEFORMATION AXIS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE LACKING FOR US, WITH STRONGER FLOW
LIKELY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, DON'T THINK WE ARE OUT OF
THE WOODS, NOTING WE WILL HAVE A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE AREA
(ENHANCES DIRECTIONAL SHEAR) AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH OVERALL TO SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES SNEAKING IN OFF LAKE HURON
TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DIURNAL HEATING. WEAK FLOW COULD ALSO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND STORM INTERACTIONS
THAT COULD FURTHER SUPPORT THE IDEA OF ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED,
BRIEF SPIN-UPS THAT COULD BE HARD TO SPOT. WE ARE ALSO VERY
MOIST/SATURATED IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS I WRITE, WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO
DESTABILIZE MUCH QUICKER AND WITH LESS HEATING/SUN, AND COULD HAVE
SOME SPICY CONVECTION EVEN THIS MORNING...WITH SIGNALS FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PV MAXIMA MOVE OVERHEAD. LOW-
LEVEL CAPE SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON (FOR VORTICITY
STRETCHING PURPOSES)...THOUGH 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER, ESPECIALLY NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY OF THE SPICIER STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT FOR ENTRAINMENT.
AND THOSE POTENTIAL SPIN-UPS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY, GIVEN PWATS STILL AROUND OR
ABOVE AN INCH AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THAT SHOULD SUPPORT SOMEWHAT
SLOW CELL MOVEMENT OVERALL, ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP WITH BOUNDARY
COLLISION NONSENSE THAT COULD LEAD TO MULTIPLE STORMS OVER AN AREA.
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3KM, GIVE OR TAKE,
SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL AS WELL, AND THAT EAST-WEST-ISH
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA STILL WORRIES ME A BIT FOR TRAINING OR
PERSISTENT STORMS, PERHAPS NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
UPSTREAM OVER WI YESTERDAY WHERE STORMS WERE GENERALLY SLOW-MOVING
AND DUMPED QUITE A BIT OF RAIN.
WARM (HOT?), HUMID, AND ACTIVE NEXT WEEK...ATTM, GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
BE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK, WITH RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE 594DM 500MB
HEIGHT CONTOUR TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP, OR PERHAPS WALK RIGHT ON
IN, IF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...WHICH HAS 850MB
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 22-25C TRYING TO SNEAK IN FOR MIDWEEK. THIS,
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE, SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK (APPARENT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 100F+ RANGE IF THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES, PERHAPS FOR A
COUPLE DAYS OR MORE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, ESP THE FURTHER SOUTH
YOU GO), ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
HEAT/HUMIDITY AND WITHOUT GOOD WAYS TO STAY COOL. NOTE THAT WATER
TEMPS ON THE GREAT LAKES AND MANY OF THEIR NEARSHORES ARE STILL IN
THE 50S FOR A LOT OF LOCATIONS (THOUGH THINGS SHOULD WARM TO SOME
DEGREE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHALLOWER WATERS) AND HYPOTHERMIA IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT WATER TEMPS BELOW 60F.
HOWEVER...THE SAME CAVEATS I HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING REMAIN: WE MAY
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE THAT CONVECTION/
CONVECTIVE LEFTOVERS TONE DOWN THE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES THROUGH
THE WEEK. (SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING THIS WAY, AND SOME OF
THE AI GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE SUBDUED WITH THE RIDGE THAN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS...THOUGH STILL QUITE WARM.)
THINK SOME MCS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AND MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS TO TRACK INTO OUR AREA,
THOUGH THE SETUP WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR US TO GET IN ON
IT/ITS REMNANTS IF FLOW WERE A BIT MORE PARALLEL TO THE THICKNESS
CONTOURS. THINK SOME OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY AND
STRONGLY THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME
WILL BE WORTH WATCHING AS WELL -- FOR TEMPERATURE CONSIDERATIONS
AND ACTIVE WEATHER PURPOSES -- AS ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE BROADER
TROUGH AND HEADS NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY; THIS IS WHEN THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD START TO TILT A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AS WELL,
GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AND A SLIGHTLY LESS
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS COULD LEAVE US A LITTLE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON
AS -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY,
RESULTING IN WINDS CONTINUOUSLY BACKING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART THE REGION THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
BKN AND OVC SKIES SLOWLY DETERIORATING AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...SJC
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