941  
FXUS63 KAPX 311507  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
1107 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SNOW TAPERS TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES CONFINED TO THE  
SNOWBELTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES TURN SUNNIER THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH TODAY, EXACERBATING IMPACTS IN  
AREAS THAT SAW THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE CONCLUDING  
ICE STORM.  
 
- TURNING COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20  
(SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS IN THE AREAS THAT SAW THE MOST  
ICING).  
 
- ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, LATER  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GREATEST IMPACTS  
LIKELY FAVOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER TERRAIN EAST TO LAKE  
HURON AND THE EASTERN YOOP.  
 
- DRIER AND MILDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
40S AND 50S.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS EAST  
INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CLEAR, BUT DO  
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING SUN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY A CHILLY ONE, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S  
AND 30S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DRIVEN CONVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE  
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD HAS PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST, WITH  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING VIA DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE COLD  
CONVEYOR OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF  
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN  
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT RETREATS. THIS  
WING OF MOISTURE WILL PIVOT FROM WEST TO EAST, LEADING TO A  
CESSATION OF THE ONGOING DRIZZLE / FREEZING DRIZZLE REGIME  
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, AS THIS SYSTEM PRODUCES ONE LAST  
SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SNOW THAT WILL  
ROUGHLY FAVOR A MANISTEE TO ALPENA LINE AND POINTS NORTH, ENDING  
QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS  
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, PERHAPS 2-3" NEAR WHITEFISH POINT. IN  
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES AMID A  
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSING OVER THE REGION, WHICH WILL  
ONLY EXACERBATE ISSUES ACROSS THE AREAS ABSOLUTELY HAMMERED BY  
THE ICE STORM DUE TO WINDS RAMPING UP TO 10-15MPH, GUSTING TO  
30MPH+ AT TIMES. SOME LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO  
DRUM UP SOME LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW  
FLOW SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INDUCE A CLEARING TREND  
THAT WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TODAY  
WILL BE COLD... GENERALLY RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 29 TO 40 DEGREES  
(WARMEST SAGINAW BAY). DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES, AREAS  
THAT BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME OF THAT ICING  
TO BEGIN MELTING OFF SOME OF THOSE TREES AND POWER LINES.  
 
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, ANTICIPATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE  
OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING. THIS  
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CALMING WINDS TO COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES  
TO BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. WHILE NOT ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD  
BREAKING... THE FACT THAT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND  
TEENS BRINGS AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING COLD  
FOR THOSE MORE VULNERABLE (NO HEAT SOURCE, INFANTS, ELDERLY) AND  
OTHER ISSUES (FROZEN PIPES) DURING THE NIGHT MONDAY DUE TO THE  
EFFECTS OF LONG TERM POWER OUTAGES. ON TUESDAY... WE DO TREND  
SLIGHTLY WARMER... HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WITH SUNNIER  
SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS (CLOUDS INCREASE SW  
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON), EXPECTING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME  
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION (THOUGH NOT A COMPLETE  
TURNAROUND).  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
A TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS  
SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS.  
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM  
ADVECTION ALOFT... ALL THE WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS JAMES BAY AND INTO NW QUEBEC, SUPPLYING  
PERSISTENT COLD LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  
RESULT WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE ANOTHER SNOW TO WINTRY MIX TO RAIN  
TRANSITION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING THIS SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE TO PASS OVER THE TOP OF US AGAIN, WHICH SHOULD DELIVER  
A DRY SLOTTING REGIME INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD PUMP THE BREAKS ON  
ANY LONG TERM ISSUES WITH ICE ACCRETION LIKE WE JUST ENDURED. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE QUICK MOVER, SO ANTICIPATING THAT  
DRIER AIR BUILDS BY LATER THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE  
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE INTRUSIONS OUT  
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
FORECAST SUMMARY:  
 
IMPORTANT FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC SURFACE  
HIGH... AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THAT IS A VERY STRONG  
ANALOG FOR PROBLEMATIC MIXED PRECIP EVENTS IN OUR LITTLE CORNER OF  
THE WORLD, AND THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM UNFORTUNATELY APPEARS TO BE OF  
NO EXCEPTION. A WING OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW BUILDS FROM SW TO  
NE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DELIVERING AN INCH OR TWO OF  
SNOWFALL AT MOST (BARRING CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT).  
 
THEN, THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM PRECIPITATION BUILDS EARLY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. WARM NOSE INTRUSION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY, SO ANTICIPATING  
SOME FORM OF SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TRANSITION ACROSS MUCH OF  
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. DETAILS REMAIN RATHER  
MURKY REGARDING HOW LONG THIS PERIOD OF MIXY PRECIPITATION LINGERS,  
BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT SURE LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER (IN  
PARTICULAR, THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND EASTERN UPPER WILL BE SET TO  
RECEIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SLEET THAT EVENTUALLY TURNS TO FREEZING  
RAIN. IN THIS MOST RECENT EVENT, ROADS LARGELY WERE ABLE TO REMAIN  
ON THE WET SIDE, BUT THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE IN THIS EVENT  
CONSIDERING PRECEDING SLEET AND SNOW, WHICH WILL ACT AS A COLDER  
SURFACE FOR FREEZING RAIN TO BOND TO ON AREA ROADWAYS. ANTICIPATING  
QUITE THE MESSY COMMUTE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS MOST AREAS PICK UP  
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SLEET WITH ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO OF  
FREEZING RAIN. OBVIOUSLY, THIS WILL DO NOTHING BUT EXACERBATE  
ONGOING RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION ACROSS THE  
REGION. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AGAIN. CAUTIOUSLY  
OPTIMISTIC THAT TEMPERATURES SPIKE INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE  
SENSITIVE AREAS (40S TO 50S SOUTH) WITH A TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN  
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES LATER WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS, IT IS  
PARAMOUNT TO MAKE ANY PREPARATIONS POSSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM.  
 
THE MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS... ALBEIT, THE BREEZY NATURE OF  
THINGS MAY POSE SOME DIFFICULTY IN RECOVERY EFFORTS THURSDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CALM THOSE WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
BOTH DAYS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S AND  
50S. AFTER THIS, THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (SNOW) LOOKS TO BE  
SUNDAY AS A MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO  
THE REGION.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
TERMINALS MOSTLY MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO -SN MOVING ACROSS  
NORTHERN MI. SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS, WITH NO -SN BY 16Z. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH 20Z  
FOR A FEW TERMINALS, HOWEVER MOST CIGS AND VIS WILL REACH VFR BY  
22Z. N/NW WINDS OF 13 TO 18KTS WITH G20 TO G25KTS THROUGH 00Z.  
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z, BECOMING LIGHT BY 06Z.  
 
 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
LHZ345>349.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-  
341-342-344>346.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-  
322.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...MSB  
SHORT TERM...HAD  
LONG TERM...HAD  
AVIATION...ELD  
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