663
FXUS63 KAPX 171953
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
253 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
- SEASONABLY MILD ON THURSDAY WITH MELTING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
- SHARPLY COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS,
SNOW CHANCES, PERHAPS A FLASH FREEZE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: THE LATEST IN OUR RECENT SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY MOISTEN AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS.
FORECAST DETAILS: STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT
AND VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
STARTS TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (40-50 KT
WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE DECK), BUT GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKES HAS
ON ONSHORE COMPONENT TO IT.
THE STRONG DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL HELP TO QUICKLY MOISTEN THE DRY AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WITH
RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTENING TAKES PLACE, PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ANY
DRIZZLE THAT FALLS MAY BE FREEZING DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
BUT THANKFULLY THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS
PRETTY MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: CLIPPER IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DEPART THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE CLIPPER "TRAIN"
CONTINUES, WITH OTHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THESE CLIPPERS WILL NOT BE TAPPING
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THEM AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING IN THEIR WAKE.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOW BELTS. THE THREAT OF A FLASH FREEZE EXISTS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP
INTO THE TEENS FROM THE 40S THAT HAD BEEN SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. ICY PATCHES ON ROADS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AND FALLING
SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TRICKY TRAVEL FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND CAN CERTAINLY SEE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BECOMING NECESSARY WHERE THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE BETTER ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THREAT WILL TAPER OFF LATER FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SURROUND THE LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AND TUESDAY CLIPPERS, BUT NEITHER OF THESE
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCERS. IT APPEARS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SIT CLOSE TO OR ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLDER
AND WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS NOT A GREAT SET UP
FOR WINTER SPORTS ENTHUSIASTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE
YEAR HOLIDAY PERIOD AS PERIODIC SNOW MELT WILL PERSIST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
MIX OF VFR/ MVFR WILL TREND VFR THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND TURN MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONT BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TREND IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR. LLWS
BECOMES LIKELY AS WELL TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 04Z CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...NSC
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