677
FXUS63 KAPX 091730
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
130 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
STRONG TROUGHING WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUNCH OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, QUICKLY
VACATING TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AMPLE FORCING ALOFT
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. TROUGHING LOOKS TO SWING BACK OVERHEAD BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. WHILE
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PROGRESSES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS:
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, DRY
WEATHER WILL SET IN ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS THIS EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK -- AND PERHAPS A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH
INTO NEXT WEEK FOR SOME AREAS. THE COLD FRONT LAGGING THIS MORNING'S
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SWING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S ARE IN STORE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PERHAPS THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING LOCALIZED LOW-LYING AREAS WITHIN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S AND LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS DISCUSSED BY THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTER, THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
EXPECTED TO PUNCH ACROSS US THIS WEEKEND APPEARS IT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY LATER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT THERE'S POTENTIAL MOST AREAS REMAIN
RAIN-FREE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
EVEN LOW 80S WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHILE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WORKING
THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
ISSUANCE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY TURNING TO NORTHWEST WITH TIME. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE
SOME ON THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS TO 15-
20 KTS AT TIMES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...DJC
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