247
FXUS63 KAPX 150651
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
251 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE/HAZE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY WEEK HEAT DOME IN THE PROCESS OF
SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH, EXPECTED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO APPALACHIA AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES. BROAD
TROUGHING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OVER EASTERN CANADA EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SAG INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LOCALLY,
WHICH WILL BRING SMOKE CONCERNS IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
REVOLVE AROUND SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN ONTARIO THAT'S ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING (ERY/ISQ/CYAM
HAVE OBSERVED VARYING VSBY DROPS AS A RESULT OF HZ/FU). THIS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING
WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VSBY DROPS POSSIBLE (PROGGED AT 1-4 MILES IN
THE MAJORITY OF LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE). ASIDE FROM AIR QUALITY
ISSUES, THIS LIKELY TO LIMIT DAYTIME WARMING TO AN EXTENT TODAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BOTH DAYS (A COMMON THEME THE LAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES),
AND HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT THEY'RE LOW ENOUGH IF WE REALIZE
THICKER SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EVENTUALLY REENTER THE FORECAST TOWARD THE TAIL
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL MORE NOTABLE (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY)
DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MAINLY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
INCREASE TO LIKELY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE
A LARGE AREA OF SMOKE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY, ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY GO. CERTAINLY
4-6SM FU APPEAR LIKELY, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWER IFR
VISIBILITIES. WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS RIGHT NOW, WITH
LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE BASED ON HOW OPAQUE THE SMOKE LAYER
BECOMES. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY UP TO 20KT FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY (HELPING TO BRING THAT SMOKE AREA
INTO OUR AREA).
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR LHZ346>348.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JK
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