816
FXUS63 KAPX 220113
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER KANSAS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THRU
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. LINE OF SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRODUCING
A VARIETY OF SEVERE WX AS WELL AS FLOODING. CLOSER TO HOME...MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA ALONG THE FAR
NE PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CLOSEST PRECIP THAT IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS STILL WELL
WEST OF OUR AREA OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCES
AT BAY UNTIL 06Z. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. GOING FORECAST
IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVED DATA...SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
..INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE EXPECTED.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...TIMING OF SHOWER CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT WILL EXIT OFF TO OUR
TONIGHT. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM
ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I-310K)/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
..SHOWER CHANCES RETURN
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: ALL EYES CENTERED ON IMPRESSIVE TROUGH (ESPECIALLY
FOR LATER MAY) ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TREMENDOUS GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE INFLUX AND SIMPLE BREADTH OF DYNAMICS MORE THAN
VERIFIED BY ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER AND EXTENSIVE FLOODING ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF MISSOURI, KANSAS, AND OKLAHOMA. WITH THAT SAID,
SYSTEM HAS REACHED MATURITY, AND EXPECT ALL PHASES OF IT TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT AND DECAYING NORTHWARD
SURGING MOISTURE CHANNEL BRINGS RENEWED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH PASSAGE OF ACTUAL MID LEVEL
WAVE/SURFACE LOW AND ITS ATTACHED COLD FRONT CONTINUING THE LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN CONUS REMAINS
ENERGY FILLED THEREAFTER, SENDING ITS NEXT WAVE AND MORE SHOWER
CHANCES INTO OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
ADDRESSING BOTH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS.
DETAILS: ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE SPREADING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, DESPITE VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN OCCURRING WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW, EXPECT NOTHING LIKE IT THIS FAR NORTH AS MOISTURE SURGE
DECAYS AND OVERALL FORCING STRETCHES OUT/WEAKENS WITH TIME. ACTUAL
BAND OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE A NARROW ONE, AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE
AREA TO DRY OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ARRIVAL OF MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE
AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER THREAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING). WOULD
LIKE TO STRESS FORECAST WILL UNFORTUNATELY LOOK MUCH WETTER THAN IT
WILL ACTUALLY BE, WITH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
REMAINING DRY (VERY POSSIBLE SOME AREAS SEE LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT
ALL). CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY PREDICATED ON TIMING OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WE SHALL SEE.
BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH THAT ARRIVAL OF THAT NEXT WAVE RETURNING THE RAIN
CONCERNS HEADING INTO FRIDAY (TIMING SUBJECT TO CHANGE OF COURSE).
SIGNALS POINT TO A RESPECTABLE MOISTURE SURGE WITH BOTH A PACIFIC
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTH. STILL
SIGNIFICANT QUESTION ON WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS WILL PASS.
STILL SOME HINTS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS INCREASE. PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL
SHOWER AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT
TIMES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY, ALTHOUGH TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT
ANYTHING BUT A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK FAIRLY SEASONAL,
PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT COOLER ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH RETURNS MORE BONAFIDE RAIN CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
WESTERN WAVE ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PRODUCING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. LLWS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN
(PLN/TVC/MBL). SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AOB 10 KTS
TONIGHT AND WILL THEN STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUST
ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE NEARSHORE AREAS
DURING THAT TIME. AFTER LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
PICK UP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB
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