163
FXUS63 KAPX 190634
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
234 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO A TRANQUIL AND MILD FORECAST. UPPER
LOWS WILL HOVER OFF THE EAST COAST, AND DEVELOP OFF OF AND THEN
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST. THOSE ARE THE ANCHORS OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SOME
MODELS, IN THE PROCESS OF DIVING ENERGY INTO/REINFORCING
TROFFING OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK, DO BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES MIDWEEK (WED AFTERNOON/
EVENING). THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
AND THE GOING FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. BUT THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE (DEFINITELY A MINORITY) THAT SQUEEZES OUT A SMIDGE OF
QPF OVER EASTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOMETHING TO
AT LEAST KEEP AN EYE ON.
OTHERWISE QUIET, WARM, AND RELATIVELY SUNNY. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY FROM ND TOWARD LK SUPERIOR, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES CONSIDERABLY. THAT PROCESS HAS ALREADY
GOTTEN UNDERWAY, AND SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY
OVERACHIEVED A BIT, NOT UNUSUAL IN FULL SUN. HAVE BOOSTED
GUIDANCE TEMPS A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A DEGREE OR
TWO.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND IT ISN'T MUCH AT THIS POINT, IS OUT
TOWARD SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY, AGAIN MAINLY IN THE EASTERN UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. BIGGER STORY IS LINGERING LLWS 30-40KTS AT
2KFT FROM STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY
MONDAY TURN NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...HAD
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