748
FXUS63 KAPX 262332
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
632 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WIND EVENT WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. EVENT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-12", LOCALIZED 18-24", AND WIND GUSTS OF
35-50+ MPH ARE EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LOW SITTING DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CHURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONE FOLLOWS SUIT, BECOMING INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
TIME. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE CYCLONE WORKS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
CENTERING ITSELF BY JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
A WELL-ADVERTISED HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WIND EVENT
IS SET TO UNFOLD IN THE COMING HOURS THIS EVENING, CONTINUING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. HERE ARE THE BROKEN DOWN DETAILS:
TIMING:
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE MOST WIDESPREAD
WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN WITH THE START OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LESSEN SOME THURSDAY DURING THE DAY,
AND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECTED TIMING
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS CHANGED SOME COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WHILE EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, ORGANIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MATERIALIZE THURSDAY MORNING AND SETTLE IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
HAZARD DETAILS:
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN, MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BLOSSOM BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX OWING TO STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND SETTLE INTO MULTIPLE BANDS ACROSS THE AREA AS MENTIONED
ABOVE -- CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ANTICIPATED HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. WHILE AMOUNTS BY THANKSGIVING MORNING LARGELY REMAIN
UNCHANGED -- A WIDESPREAD 3-6" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE FOR THE
WARNING AREAS -- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN AN IMPRESSIVE
DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT BAND STRETCHING FROM ANTRIM COUNTY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE CWA DOWN TO SAGINAW BAY AND BEYOND
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THANKSGIVING NIGHT. HIGHEST TOTALS FROM
SOUTHERN ANTRIM TO WESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY MAY END UP IN THE 18-24"
RANGE BY THE END OF THE EVENT ON FRIDAY GIVEN 1-2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES OR HIGHER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE HOLIDAY.
LESSER BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE TOTALS AROUND 8-12" ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT HOT SPOTS SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE BY FRIDAY, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TOTALS ACROSS TARGETED EASTERN
UPPER LOCATIONS. SHARP GRADIENTS IN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE
LAKESHORES. HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNTS REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST
EDGE OF EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS. WHILE BANDS WILL IMPACT MOST OF
THE CWA, AND GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON HIGH TOTALS EXTENDING FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS THAT AMOUNTS WILL END UP
BEING LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL BIG WINNERS WEST OF I-75.
STRONG WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50+ MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL LESSEN
SOME BUT REMAIN STRONG ON THURSDAY, REACHING 30-40+ MPH.
IMPACTS:
A SOMEWHAT BIFURCATED FOCUS OF IMPACTS FOR THE EVENT HAS
MATERIALIZED GIVEN THE FORECAST SCENARIO. AS MENTIONED, INITIAL SLUG
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING THE
LARGEST SPATIAL AREA OF POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL GIVEN THE
OVERLAP OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS -- AND OF IMPORTANT NOTE,
SNOW FALLING IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGEST WINDS. WHITEOUTS WILL BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXPOSED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH. TRAVELING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING MAY CAUSE PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.
AS BANDS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WINDS LESSEN SOME ON THURSDAY,
WORST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LOCALIZED -- BUT STILL MAY
END UP BEING THE MOST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY EVENING.
IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL STRETCH ACROSS HIGHLY TRAVELED
ROADS, INCLUDING I-75 AND US-131. NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY UNDER HEAVY
BANDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID CHANGES IN TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL DANGEROUS TRAVEL. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ON I-75 MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSCOMMON AND WEST BRANCH AND SPAN NORTH UP
TO AROUND EXIT 270 AT WATERS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT NORTH OF HERE. THE US-131 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ELMIRA AND FIFE LAKE IS ALSO OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
THANKSGIVING DAY.
AS FAR AS WINDS, DOWNED LIMBS AND TREES ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
LONGWAVE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES WIND DOWN FOR THE LAST IMPACTED AREAS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
A BRIEF BREAK IN SNOW CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED TO START SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE IN DURING THE SATURDAY
EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. RIDGING SLIDING OVER THE REGION
WILL PUSH EAST AS A SECOND STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, PUNCHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SUPPORTING A CYCLONE THAT
LOOKS TO TREK ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
CYCLONE, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING REMAINING TRAVEL LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ACROSS MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
WORSENING WINTER CONDITIONS IN INCREASING SNOW AND WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THRU THE TAF AT TVC. CIU WILL
BE IFR LATE TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY, AND PLN LATER THURSDAY.
MBL/APN WILL BE MOST COMMONLY MVFR.
W TO NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 35-45KT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ016>018-021>024-
027>030-033>036-041-042-086>088-095>097-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
024-029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-
032-098.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ021>023-027-
028-033>035-086-087-095-096-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ026-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ088.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ345-
346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JZ
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