040
FXUS63 KAPX 252306
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
606 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WIND EVENT WILL UNFOLD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WITH
EVENT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 12"+ AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-50+ MPH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
THE OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL BECOME LESS RECOGNIZABLE WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. UPSTREAM, AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT AND PUNCH OVER THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE,
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN UNDER STRONG DIVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING, CONSOLIDATING THE CYCLONE
CENTER AND DROPPING IT NEAR 990MB AS IT WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN/WESTERN U.P. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS:
ONGOING WEAK FRONTOGENETIC/WARM ADVECTION-DRIVEN RAIN ACROSS
DIFFERING PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING. BANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. WILL SLOWLY FOCUS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA NEAR WHITEFISH BAY AS
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MAIN RAIN CHANCES DEPART AREAS OF NORTHERN
LOWER, LIGHT DRIZZLE/MIST/FOG MAY LINGER BEHIND LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING A RELATIVELY SHORT BREAK IN BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE NORTHWOODS FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING IN THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, MILD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS READINGS IN THE 40S STICK AROUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
HOLIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WINDS (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
ALL EYES LIE ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM SET TO BRING A HIGH TRAVEL
IMPACT ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. AS THE EVENT NOW
LIES IN THE REACHES OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND DETAILS ARE BECOMING
MORE CLEAR, WILL BREAK DOWN THE DISCUSSION INTO THE PRIMARY FORECAST
COMPONENTS:
TIMING:
AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXIT EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON --
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. THE LONGEST -- LIKELY THROUGH MUST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LIGHT SHOWERS/MIST/FOG MAY LINGER BEHIND THIS, A
RELATIVE BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
CURRENT FORECAST THOUGHT IS THAT THE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- BETWEEN AROUND
4PM-8PM ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS EXPECTED QUICKLY AFTER ONSET WEDNESDAY EVENING, WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRANSITION ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. IS
TRICKIER AS THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, BUT SNOW
CHANCES LOOK TO BEGIN AROUND THE SAME TIME WITH HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ONSET DELAYED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT-4AM THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW INTENSITY MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN SOME THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT MOST DOMINANT BANDING SHOULD STILL PERSIST DURING THIS
TIME WHILE AREAS AWAY FROM THIS BEGIN TO SEE THINGS TAPER. MOST
DOMINANT BANDING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TIMING OF WINDS IS SIMILAR TO SNOWFALL. STRONGEST EXPECTED WINDS
WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THAT 4PM-8PM
TIMEFRAME, PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN SOME THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL TAPER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HAZARD DETAILS:
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER
AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS KALKASKA, SOUTHERN ANTRIM, AND
EASTERN GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES UNDER MOST DOMINANT NORTHWEST-FLOW
LAKE EFFECT BANDING. IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY UNDER WHERE
THIS MOST DOMINANT BAND SETS UP. IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THIS SECTION OF NORTHWEST MICHIGAN: EVENT
TOTALS OF 8-12" LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 16" POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE
HERE BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-10" FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS OUTSIDE OF KALKASKA, SOUTHERN
ANTRIM, AND EASTERN GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES WILL SEE SOME
LESSER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 5-9" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SHORELINES.
HEAVIEST SNOW FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 4-8" WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
5-9" RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER WITH LOWER
TOTALS NEXT TO WHITEFISH BAY. STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH BANDS FAR
INLAND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW INCHES EVEN DOWN TO PARTS OF
OUR SOUTHEAST CWA.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHEST
WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-50+
MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MOST LIKELY FOR THOSE
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
IMPACTS:
COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW -- HEAVY AT TIMES -- AND STRONG WINDS
WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS HOLIDAY TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL AT TIMES FOR COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. WORST WIDESPREAD TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
OVERLAP OF HEAVY SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONGEST WINDS.
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY UNDER HEAVIEST
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. EXPOSED ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW, INCLUDING RE-COVERING OF ALREADY PLOWED ROADS.
WHILE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL STILL BE CONCERNING, WORST IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
STRONG WINDS WILL SUPPORT BANDS WORKING FAR INTO OUR SOUTHEAST CWA --
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TRAVEL FAR AWAY FROM TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AREAS LIKE STRETCHES OF I-75 NEAR ROSCOMMON/WEST BRANCH. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT WHILE TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL
OVERLAP, STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER WINDS UNDERNEATH BANDS --
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN DOMINANT BANDS ARE ORGANIZED.
THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE IMPACTS TO A DEGREE DURING THIS TIME, BUT
EXPECTATION IS STILL HAZARDOUS TO POTENTIAL DANGEROUS TRAVEL. THOSE
WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
IMPACTS AND TIMING FOR UPDATES AND BE PREPARED FOR THE EXPECTED
UPCOMING CONDITIONS.
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK (SATURDAY - TUESDAY):
A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND BEFORE
CHANCES RETURN IN THE LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST AS EXPANSIVE TROUGHING PIVOTS ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A CYCLONE THAT LOOKS TO FOLLOW SUIT,
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW CHANCES. ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP MAY BE ON THE HORIZON
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER LOW CLOUDS, MIST, AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH KTVC AND KMBL...ALTHOUGH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM
SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT
KTVC AND KMBL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-086>088-
095>097-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR MIZ016>018-023-024-029-035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR MIZ021-022-027-028-033-034-086-087-095-096-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ088.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ345-346.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ345-
346.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB
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