306
FXUS63 KAPX 280442
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1142 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POCKETS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, AND REALLY FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA DOWNSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER, BY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK
PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO BE TREKKING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST DETAILS: LINGERING LIGHT TO POCKETS OF MODERATE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY RESULT IN A SHRINKING FOOTPRINT OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
BULK OF REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER INTO TONIGHT
BECOMING FOCUSED MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF US-131. FOR EASTERN UPPER,
A SIMILAR STORY, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF M-28 FROM NEAR
PARADISE/WHITEFISH PT, PERHAPS IN/OUT OF THE SOO AT TIMES. GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ABOUT FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND POOR TRAVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW BELTS; HOWEVER, WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH TONIGHT
GENERALLY AN INCH OF LESS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER, LOCALLY 1-
2" IN THE TYPICAL SNOW BELTS OF ANTRIM, KALKASKA AND FAR WESTERN
OTSEGO COUNTIES. LOCALIZED 2-5" AMOUNTS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
PT.
NO PLANNED CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH
NORTHWEST LOWER EXPIRING AT 00Z AND WESTERN CHIPPEWA AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, EVEN AFTER THE ADVISORY EXPIRES, LOCALLY POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOCUS TURNS TO NEXT INCOMING WAVE SET TO DROP
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. ONGOING, MAINLY LIGHT, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FLARE UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SYNOPTIC
HELP. SOME BREEZINESS RETURNS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE
THIS GO AROUND. ACCUMS ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-2.0" ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER WITH LOCALLY 3"+ IN THE TYPICAL HARDEST HIT SNOW
BELTS. SIMILAR AMOUNTS NEAR WHITEFISH PT. ONE UNCERTAINTY TO MONITOR
FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT CONVERGENCE
BANDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AID TO SHOVE HEAVIEST BANDING WEST OF APX'S FOOTPRINT...
MORE INTO LUCE/ALGER COUNTIES, BUT CERTAINLY WORTH MONITORING
TRENDS OF THAT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: WHILE OCCASIONAL LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME, THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
AIR TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS BELOW ZERO (SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR AND WEST OF
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY). WHILE WINDS DON'T LOOK TOO NOTABLE DURING THIS
TIME, EVEN A LITTLE WIND WILL BRING ABOUT INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR SUB -15F WIND CHILLS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COLDEST DAY OF
THE WEEK EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO BEFORE LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW
ZERO AREA-WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT LIKELY IN
THE -20S F, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AND THE MAJORITY OF
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER. THURSDAY NIGHT - EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
TIME FRAME HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF REACHING EXTREME COLD
WARNING CRITERIA.
SATURDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: MODERATING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY IN THE TEENS,
RISING INTO THE 20S FOR SUNDAY - MONDAY. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SNOW
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST LOW END SNOW CHANCES
RETURNING MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER LOOKS TO CROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR CIU/TVC/PLN/MBL TONIGHT,
CARRYING INTO WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
THOUGH MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE MVFR OR BETTER. MVFR TO VFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WEAKENING
A BIT TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ086.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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