553
FXUS63 KAPX 120324
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1124 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND,
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON THE
WAY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A VIGOROUS IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE FLOW ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 STATES TRENDS MORE ZONAL BEHIND TONIGHT'S SYSTEM AND THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN THE CUTOFF DIPS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH MEAN TROFFING EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TONIGHT (MAINLY THIS EVENING). LOW CLOUDS THAT LINGERED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY DELAYED DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED
SUFFICIENTLY FOR BETTER INSOLATION AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MU CAPE
VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG BY THIS EVENING. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 KTS
OR BETTER THIS EVENING. WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS,
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR.
COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND TONIGHT'S
SYSTEM AS FLOW TRENDS ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY TROFFING DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S). PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE
SATURDAY STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS STRONGER FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD
FROM MOVE THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING A LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR PRODUCING
CIGS TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST TAF LOCATION BEHIND THIS DEPARTING
RAIN. LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING, LEAVING
BEHIND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TODAY, REMAINING QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...PBB
AVIATION...MSB
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