718  
FXUS63 KAPX 272015  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
315 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
..A MAJOR SNOW BAND
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL  
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MAINLY NW LOWER AND E UPPER MICHIGAN.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...SFC LOW NORTH OF NEW YORK IS PINWHEELING  
A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE  
WINDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHIFT IS VEERING THE WINDS TO  
THE N AND IS BEGINNING TO CAUSE SOME BAND CONVERGENCE OVER N LAKE  
MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING PUSHING THE  
ONGOING SNOW BANDS INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE  
SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE DIURNAL DISRUPTION  
FROM THE SUNSHINE FOR THE EARLY SPRING, AS WE TYPICALLY DO. HOWEVER,  
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS USUAL, AS THE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO  
OVERCOME THE OVERLAND CAPE. AS THE SUNSETS, THE DIURNAL DISRUPTION  
WILL END, AND BANDS WILL BECOME MORE DISCREET, AND WITH THE SFC  
TROUGH ROTATING SOUTH, THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GO BACK TO THE NW  
AROUND 03Z/FRI, AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINWHEEL  
AROUND, AND PUSH THE WINDS N AGAIN(AND THE BANDS WILL TREND SOUTH).  
FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE NNW, AS THE DRIER  
AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THE BANDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH  
BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...MAIN CONCERN IS SNOW AMOUNTS. THE  
PROBLEM WILL BE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE AREA, AND BAND CONVERGENCE.  
AS WITH MOST LAKE EFFECT THIS WILL BE A MONITOR AND FIND THE AMOUNT  
OF SNOW, TO UPDATE. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT UNDER DONE IF THE SNOW BAND  
SITS IN ONE PLACE TOO LONG. MOST OF THE BANDS WILL BE MODERATE  
AMOUNTS OF SNOW (3-5") BUT THE BIGGEST BAND IF IT SITS WILL BE HEAVY  
(6+"). AND THE PLUS SIDE COULD BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT (12+"?)  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME POSSIBLE MINOR LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN (-18 TO -  
20C 850MB TEMPERATURES)...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND  
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY  
PARTS OF SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR THROUGHOUT  
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE, THE  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH ANY  
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
BACK TO WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A  
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER WESTERN  
ONTARIO. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT  
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST PRECIPITATION APPEARS  
TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN LOWER AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY AND MODERATE INTO THE  
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY AND GET EVEN WARMER MONDAY WITH THE  
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER POSSIBLY  
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A CLIPPER  
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
TREKKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE NOT  
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT NOR IN AGREEMENT ON SAID SYSTEMS. WILL HAVE TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON THESE SYSTEMS AND CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AS  
NECESSARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE COOLING A BIT THURSDAY...REACHING INTO  
THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NW  
LOWER MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL), WITH SOME AFFECT AT APN. SO FAR, THE  
MAIN SNOW BAND HAS BEEN JUST NORTH OF TVC AFFECTING AREAS AROUND  
ACB. SMALLER SNOW BANDS NEAR TVC AND MBL HAVE BEEN KEEPING THE  
SNOW LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. PLN HAS SEEN A FEW BANDS RECENTLY  
DROPPING THE VSBY NEAR IFR CATEGORIES.  
 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NNW OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS, AND PUSH THE SNOW INTO TVC AND MAYBE MBL AND CONTINUE INTO  
THE EVENING, AFTER THAT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE NW  
AGAIN AND PUSH THE BANDS BACK NORTH OF TVC AND MBL AGAIN, UNTIL  
AFTER 09Z/FRI WHEN THE WINDS VEER TO THE N AGAIN AND PUSH THE  
BANDS BACK INTO THE TVC AND MBL.  
 
AS THE WINDS CHANGE AT PLN, THE OPPOSITE WILL HAPPEN. AS THE WINDS  
BECOME MORE NORTH, PLN VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE  
BACKING TO THE NW ALLOWING BANDS BACK INTO THE TAF SITE. AND THEN  
THE WIND GO BACK TO NORTH AROUND 09Z/FRI AND THE VSBY WILL IMPROVE  
AGAIN.  
 
APN CURRENTLY, HAS VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS, AND THE SNOW  
BANDS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO REACH ACROSS N LOWER MI. HOWEVER, LAKE  
BANDS ON LAKE HURON MAY GET PUSHED INTO APN AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO  
SHIFT TO THE NNW. HOWEVER, NO PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS  
EXPECTED AS THE BANDS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION AS THE WINDS SWING  
BACK AND FORTH.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GALES CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND  
LAKE HURON INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC LOW NEAR NEW YORK,  
CONTINUES WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE  
EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN, DIMINISHING  
THE WIND ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY SATURDAY MORNING ON  
LAKE HURON. WINDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LOOK TO BE VARIABLE  
UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ086>088.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-022-026-  
028-033-099.  
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-018-  
020-021-025-031-099.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ021-027.  
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ346-349.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347-348.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345.  
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...JL  
SHORT TERM...TL  
LONG TERM...TL  
AVIATION...JL  
MARINE...JL  
 
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