913
FXUS63 KAPX 031908
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
208 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THURSDAY.
- REINFORCING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS (COLD/SNOW).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING WINDS TO
WEAKEN AND FAVOR A LAND-BREEZE TYPE REGIME. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL
SHELTERED AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHERE DECOUPLING IS MOST
LIKELY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER, WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER LOOKS TO
DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. AREAS CLOSER TO
GRAND TRAVERS BAY POINTING SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN MILDER, WITH
GENERALLY TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES F, AIDED BY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER (LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS OF
1- 2"). TEMPERATURES MAY FALL EVEN LOWER THAN FORECASTED IF
SKIES REMAIN PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A LOWER STRATUS DECK
MOVING IN LATER, ESSENTIALLY PLATEAUING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
SLIGHTLY MODERATING THEM INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, MIDLEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING FLATTENS AND A RIDGE BUILDS OUT
WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN A MODEST WARMUP, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION, MARKING A BRIEF MODERATION THAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG JET STREAK DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PRODUCE LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
THURSDAY, THOUGH LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH GENERALLY A FEW INCHES
EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING LITTLE IN ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MORE IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DRIVES A SHARP ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG LARGE- SCALE ASCENT AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BREIFLY PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS
(WARMEST NEAR SAGINAW BAY). THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY, MARKED BY A RAPID SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE ALIGNMENT SUPPORTS PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES. RAPID TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SUPPORT QUICK REFREEZES ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING WEEKEND TRAVEL.
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
SATURDAY REMAINS COLD WITH LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, THOUGH DUE TO THE COLDER AIR THIS MAY LIMIT
SNOW GROWTH EFFICIENCY, FAVORING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OVER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BY SUNDAY, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
CHANCES OF -SN AND -SHSN WILL PERIODICALLY DROP VSBY'S TO MVFR
AND VFR AT TIMES AT KTVC, KMBL, AND KPLN THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OTHER THAN KCIU
WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE SITE. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN TURN TO THE NW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...SJC
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