890
FXUS63 KAPX 130659
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
259 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY, MAINLY NORTH.
- RAIN, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES RETURN
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING, SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. ALOFT, A FEW
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL BE SITUATED
UPSTREAM. THESE ASSOCIATED FEATURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVE EAST
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM (TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER) WILL RESIDE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL/LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS, BEST CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS,
WANING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DOES EVACUATE
ALOFT, AND THUS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE IN SPOTS GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT SATURATED 0-1 KM LEVEL,
NEAR/NORTH OF M-32, MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A
COOLER DAY EXPECTED, AT LEAST A STEP IN THAT DIRECTION, AS
NORTHWEST WINDS ENVELOP NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE TRANQUIL HEADING INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AIDED BY
H500 AND H250 JET STREAKS ALOFT. OVERALL THOUGH, COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DECREASING SURFACE WINDS, AND
DRY MOST AREAS/MOST OF THE TIME.
COUPLE OF FEATURES TO MONITOR DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH THAT
DIVES DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING GOOD
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. AN ADDITIONAL UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST, BUT THE SFC REFLECTION WILL ADVECT MODEST MOISTURE
NORTHEAST, WITH AN INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION AND RAIN CHANCES.
IN REALITY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE DRIVEN
FROM BOTH OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR INTERACTION, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HEALTHY RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN MI. HOWEVER, THE MAIN
STORY WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON
FRIDAY COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF H850 WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY,
WINDY CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL FOR 30 TO 40 MPH, HIGHER ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE, WILL BE POSSIBLE (FINE TUNEAGE IN THE COMING
DAYS). AS AN ADDITIONAL NOTE, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE FOCUS OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME.
HEIGHTS RISE AGGRESSIVELY AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FREE
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND SLIGHTLY MILDER BY
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH FANTASY LAND, RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD NEXT WEEK AS
WELL, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WARM, AND POTENTIALLY DRY,
WEATHER. THE CPC OUTLOOK ECHOS THIS SENTIMENT, WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
GENERALLY POOR FLYING WX. STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
PLN/APN/CIU THRU THE FORECAST, IFR/LIFR FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST, THOUGH MAY WOBBLE UP TOWARD MVFR TUESDAY EVENING.
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT, EXITING
TUE MORNING. VCTS AT LEAST EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. TVC
WILL SEE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS, MOSTLY MVFR ON
TUESDAY. MBL WILL BE MOSTLY VFR.
VARIABLE WINDS IN THE REGION, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-
342.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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