443
FXUS63 KAPX 021736
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST CONCERNS TONIGHT
- SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EMBEDDED WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED WAVE RACING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION TO KICK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS EXPANSIVE ARE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS HIGH BRINGING A SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, AS EVIDENT BY CURRENT TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S (WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL
VALUES FOR TODAYS DATE).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST, CENTERING ITSELF DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...EXITING STAGE RIGHT ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, PROPELLING NEXT RATHER WELL ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DETACHMENT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ANY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
ONLY INCREASES WITH TIME, SUPPORTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WE
HEAD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
INITIAL FOCUS CENTERS ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS TONIGHT AND ATTENDANT
FROST CONCERNS. SECONDARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND SHOWER CHANCES AND NEXT
LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE PRODUCING TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT.
DETAILS:
ANY SHOWER THREAT COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS MENTIONED,
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT,
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND AS IT DOES SO. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD TO EXCELLENT NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE. HOWEVER, STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WET SOILS FROM
RECENT RAINS (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE) WILL PREVENT AN
ALL OUT TEMPERATURE FREE-FALL. LITTLE DOUBT HOWEVER THAT FROST
PRODUCING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKE COLLAR
COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER. VERY POSSIBLE SOME OF OUR TRADITIONAL
COLDER LOCATIONS ALONG M-28 IN EASTERN UPPER (LOOKING AT YOU RACO)
AND WITHIN THE AU SABLE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN LOWER DIP DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S. APPROPRIATE FROST HEADLINES ALREADY ISSUED BY THE
OVERNIGHT CREW (MANY THANKS TO THEM).
NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. JUXTAPOSITION OF BEST FORCING
AND LIMITED MOISTURE CENTERS ITSELF NORTH OF THE BRIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT, SUGGESTING THAT IS WHERE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RESIDE...WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE
TRAVELS. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS WAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT, MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TO KICK OFF NEXT WORK
WEEK. SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTS LOWS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. PATTERN RECOGNITION STRONGLY SUPPORTS
EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS THAT CHILLY HIGH CENTERS
OVERHEAD. EARLY PROGS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING LOWS ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RATHER UNEVENTFUL, ALTHOUGH MATURING RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
RETREATING HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. FAST MOVING AND MOISTURE STARVED WAVES
MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LATE WEEK SHOWER CHANCES, BUT DEFINITELY
NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AS GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CU FIELDS BLANKET THE REGION WITH BASES AROUND FL031-046. BESIDES
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAINFALL OBSERVED AT CIU (PROMPTING A PROB30
FOR -SHRA), FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONGOING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM 10-20 KT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (5 KT OR LESS). WHILE SOME OVERNIGHT FG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE TYPICAL OVERPERFORMERS (NAMELY MBL AND PLN),
CURRENT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CHANCES OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE 20% OR LESS, SO WILL LEAVE FG MENTION OUT OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. FOR THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON OF SATURDAY,
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BUT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MIZ017-018-022-023-027>029-032>035-086-087-095-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ346>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...GS (MQT)
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