249
FXUS63 KAPX 241015
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
615 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
- SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY...
- WARMER, MORE HUMID, AND MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND, LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
FLATTENED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AS NIBLETS OF ENERGY
TRACK INTO THE PACNW...WITH CONFLUENCE (AND ATTENDANT WNW-ESE
80KT JET) ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BETWEEN THIS AND
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING, CENTERED ON A BROAD 566DM 500MB LOW CHURNING
OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. SOME DEFORMATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
BETWEEN THIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES...WITH SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW. BULK OF THE HEAT ATTM IS ALONG AND WEST OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE TX PANHANDLE (AND TO
SOME EXTENT, EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT
THERE), WITH 850MB TEMPS CRESTING 20-25C; BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS OUT THIS WAY AS WELL, WITH GREATER ACCESS TO WEAKER STABILITY
FROM EMLS. SOME CONVECTION KICKING OFF ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN MN; AN OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ONGOING ALONG AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
MN. ACTIVITY WITH THESE TWO FEATURES SEEMS TO BE SPLITTING A BIT AS
OF 4Z AS DRY AIR SNEAKS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
STILL HANGING ONTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, MID MS VALLEY, AND OH
VALLEY...BUT ONLY FOR NOW, NOTING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
ALREADY LARGELY WARMER AT THIS HOUR (4Z) THAN THEY WERE THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.
EXPECT UPSTREAM UPPER UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY EXITING BY
FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, SOME RAIN AND STORMS TO CROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDER
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS TRAILING PV MEANDERS THROUGH THE REGION.
RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY...WITH SOME NIBLETS OF ENERGY ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA...AS MORE NOTABLE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE PACNW.
WHILE THE CENTRAL CANADIAN NIBLETS COULD BRING US SOME ACTIVITY,
THINK THE FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THAT ENERGY OUT WEST...WHICH
SHOULD EXPAND INTO LONGER-WAVE TROUGHING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
120KT UPPER JET TRAVERSES THE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. EXPECTED RESULT WILL BE AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT, BUT CERTAINLY A GOOD
IDEA TO PREPARE FOR AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNALS
FOR THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO HOLD ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF JULY.
FORECAST DETAILS...
RAIN/STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...STRAIGHT ADVECTION WOULD BRING
CONVECTION FROM MN (AT 5Z), IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER, INTO THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY OR SO, THOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE LEANING
ACROSS WI...BUT THINK ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO REACH THE
GROUND GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY MID-LEVELS, PER OUR 0Z SOUNDING. THINK
BEST INSTABILITY WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING WITH COOLING ALOFT AND SOME SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID-
LEVELS. SIGNALS CURRENTLY TAKE THE BULK OF THE HIGHER PWATS AND
INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH TODAY/TONIGHT, WHICH IS NOT UNEXPECTED;
ADDITIONALLY, THINK THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF SCATTERED
DEFORMATION/WRAPAROUND PRECIP ACROSS THE YOOP/LAKE SUPERIOR NORTH
OF THE PV MAX TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON OVER MN AND
MANITOBA ATTM. PWATS AROUND OR ABOVE AN INCH COULD LEND A THREAT FOR
HIGHER QPF TODAY/TONIGHT AS WELL, PARTICULARLY IF ACTIVITY ENDS UP
TAKING ON MORE OF AN E-W ORIENTATION WITH SOME TRAINING, SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM OVER MN AND CENTRAL WI ATTM.
ADDITIONALLY, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME KIND OF E-W BOUNDARY WILL TRY
TO SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER MI, PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, WHICH
COULD FOCUS RAIN/STORMS AS WELL. OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS E-W
BOUNDARY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ESPECIALLY IF
WE END UP DRIER DURING THE DAY AND CAN FORM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MOIST LOW-LEVELS, LCLS SHOULD BE LOW, AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD SOME SPINNY SHENANIGANS AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH THINK THE THREAT FOR THIS IS QUITE LOW
ATTM. SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH MAY NOT BE FABULOUS FOR STRONGER STORMS,
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK/MARGINAL...SO THINK SEVERE CHANCES
WOULD BE LOW OVERALL.
RAIN/STORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY...SOME PV MAXIMA WILL BE SWIRLING
THROUGH THE REGION WITH TROUGH AXIS GENERALLY OVERHEAD, WHICH
SUGGESTS SHOWER ACTIVITY, AT THE VERY LEAST. THINK THE BEST SHOT AT
BEEFIER STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NE LOWER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE AT THINGS REMAINING MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE LONGER. DIURNAL
HEATING WOULD AGAIN LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
EVEN FROM THE SURFACE, AND CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SPICY
TOWARD SAGINAW BAY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED (PERHAPS OVER A THOUSAND?)
JOULES OF CAPE....THOUGH WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IF THERE
IS SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN TONIGHT), MAY NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING FOR
PARCELS TO BECOME BUOYANT, AND SHOWERS/STORMS COULD START TO PICK UP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW SHOULD STILL BE WEAK, PERHAPS EVEN
WEAKER THAN TODAY...BUT THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL HEATING) THAT COULD ENHANCE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IN THE SAGINAW BAY REGION.
WARMER/HUMID AND MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND, LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK...STRONG RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING A TASTE OF THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
US/WESTERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION STARTING THIS WEEKEND, AND
LIKELY HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A 590+DM 500MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OH VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY
LOOK TO RISE FROM THE MID-UPPER TEENS THIS WEEKEND, INTO THE
20+C RANGE FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. JUST HOW
DEEPLY INTO THE 20C RANGE WE GET IS THE QUESTION...AS WE MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE THAT ACTIVITY COULD
SNEAK IN AND KEEP THINGS CLOUDIER/COOLER (HEAT- WISE) THAN THE
CURRENT FORECASTS (AND WHATEVER HYPE COMES FROM IT) SUGGEST;
HAVE OPTED TO PLAY THINGS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVELY (COMPARED
TO SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE) BASED ON THIS IDEA,
THOUGH STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTS TO REACH OR CREST 90F
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. OF AS
GREAT A NOTE AS TEMPS IS THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN HUMIDITY,
AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE MUGGY-FOR-NORTHERN-MICHIGAN 60S. EVEN IF WE
DON'T END UP WITH THE WORST-CASE-SCENARIO HEAT, THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS INCREASINGLY UNPLEASANT AND PERHAPS
DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT/HUMIDITY
AND THOSE WORKING OUTDOORS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS GOING FORWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH, WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOME PORTION OF
THE MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS, AS WE MAY WELL
END UP CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET IN ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN SOME WAY,
SHAPE, OR FORM...THOUGH IF THE RIDGE AXIS ENDS UP A LITTLE BROADER
AND MORE FOCUSED SLIGHTLY WEST OF OVERHEAD, WE COULD END UP CAPPED
BENEATH THE RIDGE. SOME SUBTLE SIGNALS ATTM FOR THE UPPER LOW TO
FLING SOME ENERGY ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH COULD DAMPEN THE RIDGE A BIT...AND ALSO LEAVE US A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE PERIMETER AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTIAL HIGH CLOUD WILL PREVAIL,
BUT MOISTURE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL LEAD TO MORE LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY AT MBL, WHICH SEES
THE BEST SHOT TO FALL MVFR DURING THE DAY TODAY. SHRA WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA PRIMARILY AT MBL AND APN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENT +RA OR +TSRA IMPACTS A TAF
SITE. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT, WITH SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. IN ADDITION, CLOUD BASES
LOWER CONSIDERABLY, PERHAPS BOTTOMING OUT AT IFR BY THE CONCLUSION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH, SUSTAINED 5-
10KTS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20KTS AT TIMES. LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL VULNERABLE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
TREND LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD
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