033
FXUS63 KAPX 301910
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
210 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
- MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AHEAD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 20S SUNDAY - MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SITUATED FROM OFF
THE COAST OF QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA
ALL THE WAY UP TO HUDSON BAY. THIS TROUGHING PIVOTS SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. BRIEF/WEAK UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MI THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ALREADY EVIDENCED BY A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW LARGELY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH NEAR-SURFACE
BACKED MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHOULD AID IN KEEPING ANY MORE
LOCALLY ROBUST/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NEAREST THE GREAT
LAKES SHORELINES -- PRIMARILY NORTHWEST LOWER FROM LEELANAU
COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTH.
FORECAST DETAILS: MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY FOCUS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND THE LAKE HURON
AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY
ENHANCED AT TIMES WITH SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE RESULTING IN POCKETS
OF LOW VISIBILITY. POTENTIAL TIMEFRAME FOR MORE ROBUST SNOW
SHOWERS EXISTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUM.
OF 1-3" POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF LEELANAU, BENZIE AND MANISTEE
COUNTIES. PERHAPS A LOCALIZED INCH OR TWO IN PARTS OF PRESQUE
ISLE/ALPENA AND WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN, LIKELY
TO RESULT IN A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW AND ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT LARGELY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST
COUPLE...RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER. SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE COASTS. MORE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MID-TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MANY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 20S ON SUNDAY.
WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES BY
TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. NOT LOOKING LIKE A HUGE SNOW EVENT BY ANY STRETCH WITH
AN EARLY LOOK AT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SUGGESTING MOST AREAS UNDER
2" OF NEW SNOW, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR >2" LARGELY LESS THAN 10%
AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: SEVERAL SYSTEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NATION'S MIDSECTION MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY'S SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNING TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
LIGHT SNOW IS OBSERVED TRACKING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DROPS IN VISIBILITIES TO IFR AND CIGS DROPPING
MOSTLY TO MVFR OR KEEPING VFR AS SNOW TRACKS THROUGH. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BURST OF MOISTURE/ SNOW
EXPECTED APPROXIMATELY 20Z-3Z ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS (ESPECIALLY MBL AND TVC).
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...NSC
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