543
FXUS63 KAPX 301051
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
651 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ROUNDS OF RAINFALL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
-QUIET WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CANADA AS YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND PROGRESS DOWN STREAM.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. BENEFICIAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN ONGOING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY
BENIGN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CANADA EXPANDS
SOUTHWARD AND SUPPORTS A COOL CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS TO OCCUPY
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, BESIDES SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAINFALL DRIVEN BY A DISHEVELED WAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THIS SUNDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY AND THURSDAY: WHILE AREAS UPSTREAM ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
INCHES OF RAINFALL, THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN OVER THE ILLINOIS/IOWA REGION. LATEST HI-
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION UPSTREAM WHILE FORCING FALLS RAPIDLY WITH DISTANCE AS IT
APPROACHES OUR CWA LEADING TO LESS INTENSE RAINFALL. REGARDLESS,
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME BENEFICIAL
SHOWER TO THE NORTHWARDS IN TWO ROUNDS (TODAY AND THURSDAY). LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL PERSIST TODAY ONLY PRODUCING A COUPLE
TENTHS FOLLOWED BY A MORE CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN ELEMENT SWEEPING THE
REGION THURSDAY RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION BUILDS THIS
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE WEATHER WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW
AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL BACK TO CLIMO-NORMS. HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 60S THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY DRYING OUT PROFILES. THE ONLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER
WITHIN THIS TIMEFRAME IS THE NEAR-FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING RATES LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND
THE 30S FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OUTLOOK: OVERALL QUIET AND NON-IMPACTFUL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH PROLONGED LONGWAVE TROUGHING
AND CP INFLUENCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL
REMAINS ON SUNDAY AS A DISHEVELED WAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW WITH MOST MOISTURE
REMAINING NORTH OF THE BRIDGE, GENERALLY A TENTH OR SO OF TOTAL
ADDITIONAL PRECIP. OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PRODUCE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CURRENT RAIN TURNS MORE SHOWERY AND
CONTINUES AT TIMES TODAY. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE, MOST NOTABLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS, ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM GRUNGY DZ/BR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ025-031-
095-096-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
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