697
FXUS63 KAPX 011814
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
214 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING
- FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
ALL EYES CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON TROPICAL ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME
ROTATING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST DROPPING
COLD FRONT AND RATHER INTENSE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WORKING OVER THIS
MOISTURE AXIS, RESULTING IN RATHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF LOWER MICHIGAN. POST COLD FRONT DRYING HAS
KEPT EASTERN MICHIGAN LARGELY DRY. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
CLOUDS, STILL RELATIVELY MILD OUT THERE...WITH CURRENT READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
OVERHEAD COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST,
TAKING THE RAIN ALONG WITH IT THIS EVENING. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW, BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TO KICK OFF THE
WEEKEND. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SET TO VISIT THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
PRIMARY FOCUS CENTERS ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SECONDARY FOCUS ON CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS.
DETAILS:
RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE BIG LAKE.
CONCEPTUALLY, FRIDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY ONE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WINDS. ONLY CONCERN IS THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS. STILL, THINKING AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
FROST PRODUCING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S ARE LIKELY AWAY FROM
THE BIG WATERS...WITH SOME OF OUR TYPICAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS PERHAPS
MAKING A RUN INTO THE UPPER 20S. MUCH TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFIC
HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN OUR
GRAPHICS. JUST ABOUT TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND,
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAST MOVING RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED WAVE BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM
ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. PASSING WAVES WITHIN THAT NORTHERN
STREAM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MID TO LATE WEEK SHOWER CHANCES, BUT
DEFINITELY NOT SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS AT THIS TIME. COOL
SURGE OF TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY'S DEPARTING WAVE, LIKELY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN WELL WITHIN THE
RANGE OF WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL HEADING THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LIFR CIGS AND VIS DUE TO TIMES OF -RA/-SHRA.
A FROPA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, SWITCHING S/SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS TO THE NW AT 7 TO 11
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS BECOME MVFR/VFR AFTER 00Z AS -RA EXITS BY 00Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL BR/FG AT TERMINALS DUE TO
WINDS REMAINING 5 TO 10 KTS AND BKN/OVC CIGS AOA 4 KFT
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 14Z NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH
GUSTS UP 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHRA NEAR KCIU AFTER 12Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LHZ346>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...ELD
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