665
FXUS63 KAPX 221052
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY, MAYBE TUESDAY?
- BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
- WARMER NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK?
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN
THE FLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS
GREATER THAN 1.5IN) ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED...ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM KS/OK THROUGH MO AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AS OF 3Z.
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA, FOCUSED
OVER ALBERTA, WITH A TROUGH AXIS SNEAKING BACK INTO THE PACNW...AND
ALSO ONTARIO (557DM UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR)...WITH 100+KT
UPPER JET EXITING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONFLUENCE ZONE AND
THERMAL GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/YOOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM NORTHERN WI TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN WI TO THE CENTRAL UP TO SHOW FOR IT
AT 3Z. MORE NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS AND ACTIVITY ARE TO OUR SOUTH IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET, WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
IL AT 3Z: AN EAST-WEST EXPANSE OF STRATIFORM RAIN FROM SW WI ACROSS
SOUTHERN MI (SIGNALS FOR SOME FGEN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE STATE LINE
COUNTIES), ASSOCIATED WITH SHARP GRADIENT IN PWATS NEAR THE US-10/M-
55 CORRIDOR WITH PWATS AROUND 1.0IN OR SO SOUTH OF HERE. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY STRETCHES LARGELY ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
OH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO OOZE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH SOME DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OUT THERE.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
TODAY...WHILE SOME PV ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH SLIPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE LOW TREKKING
EASTWARD WITH TIME TODAY. SUBTLE 500MB CAA INTO THE EUP/TIP OF THE
MITT THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUBTLE LOBE OF ENERGY
PIVOTS DOWN TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AS PV SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY, WITH
CURRENT EXPECTATION THAT THE LATTER FEATURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AGAIN...THOUGH BROAD TROUGHING SHOULD OVERTAKE
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE INVOLVED...WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW...BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY, PARTICULARLY
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. ALBERTA PV
EXPECTED TO LOOSELY PINWHEEL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ULTIMATELY SETTLING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME ACTIVITY
PRESENT AS WELL AS KEEP THINGS ON THE COOLER SIDE STILL. GOING INTO
LATE WEEK...UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONTINENT...ULTIMATELY DRIVING WESTERN RIDGING (AND ANY EMBEDDED PV
MAXES) EASTWARD FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS TRYING TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE AXIS WILL END UP. WEST COAST UPPER LOW
COULD BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE...DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH HOW CLOSE TO US ANY ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY GETS IS STILL
UP IN THE AIR (PUN INTENDED).
FORECAST DETAILS...
LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY/TUESDAY...THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE LOWER WHERE
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BOOST CONVERGENCE AND WHERE SURFACE WARMING
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER. HOWEVER...THINK IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE
TO GET MORE THAN AROUND A HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE OR SO
TODAY...NOTING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS
(AROUND 600-650MB) WHICH SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE
TAME...AND LIKELY KEEP ICE NUCLEATION FROM OCCURRING ALOFT
(I.E., LIMITING THUNDER POTENTIAL AS WELL). EXPECT SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM OF US TONIGHT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF ANY OF IT CAN REACH US AND/OR THROW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA TO SUPPRESS ANY POP-UP ACTIVITY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE SLIPPING THROUGH WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
650MB OR SO...THOUGH A LITTLE LESS MOIST THAN TODAY, AND WOULD
EXPECT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE A LITTLE MORE NEBULOUS
AND DRIVEN MUCH MORE BY THINGS LIKE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES,
NOTING FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHTER THROUGH THE COLUMN THAN TODAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MIDWEEK...THINK RETURN FLOW
SHOULD PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT PERTURBATION SLIPS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST; LEFT EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET SHOULD HANG OUT AND
POTENTIALLY AID IN SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH
THURSDAY, TILL SHORTWAVE MOVES ON OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COULD SLOW DOWN ACTIVITY INITIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST. WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED IF ACTIVITY WERE TO SPLIT
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT COMES IN WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
REMAINING NORTH, CLOSER TO BETTER PVA AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...AND TO OUR SOUTH, WHERE THINGS SHOULD BE MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE. LOOKING FOR SOME POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO
SNEAK IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF WHATEVER SUBTLE BOUNDARY IS PRESENT TO
OUR WEST...WITH SIGNALS FOR THIS FEATURE TO SLOWLY AMBLE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME PRESSURE FALLS AND/OR
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LIKELY
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST OF A FEATURE AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEEMINGLY STEREOTYPICAL SCENARIO
FOR US WOULD BE FOR THINGS TO QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AND MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WHEN DIURNAL HEATING /SHOULD/ BE BETTER. HOWEVER...INCOMING PV
NIBLET SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WEAKENING STABILITY ALOFT, AND IF LOW-
LEVELS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH (EVEN WITH A SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION),
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY, WHICH COULD BE REALIZED AS
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AS EARLY AS THE MORNING HOURS IF WE MIX
OUT QUICK ENOUGH...AND INCOMING PV NIBLET WOULD THEORETICALLY
SUPPORT A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS IN THE AFTERNOON TO AID IN FOCUSING
ANY CONVECTIVE EFFORT. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND OVERNIGHT IN
THE PRESENCE OF A POTENTIAL PV NIBLET...CERTAINLY THINK THERE COULD
BE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY WARMER THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK?...SIGNALS FOR
RIDGING TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US DO POINT TOWARDS
WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US/MIDWEST. WHETHER THIS GETS TO US OR
NOT IS UNCLEAR ATTM, AND WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHERE THAT RIDGE AXIS
SETS UP, AS WELL AS HOW ROBUST IT IS. RIDGE AXIS MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD OR SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST, COMBINED WITH BEING MORE
ROBUST/AMPLIFIED, WOULD BE A BETTER SIGNAL FOR HEAT. ATTM, THERE ARE
SOME SIGNALS FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO BE LESS ROBUST AND A LITTLE
SLOWER, WHICH COULD SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO TRY TO OVERTOP
THE RIDGE AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHETHER
RELATED TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OR RELATED
TO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE FLOW. EITHER WAY, THIS
COULD THOROUGHLY MUDDLE THE HEAT POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA WITH ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION AND/OR MID/HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL, ANTICIPATE A WARMING
TREND FOR NOW...BUT TAKE THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
MAINLY VFR, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT. BAND
OF SHOWERS HAS WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO REGENERATE
THIS MORNING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN NE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. APN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING -SHRA, BUT EVEN
THERE THAT CHANCE IS SMALL, AND RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
UNLIKELY. EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING,
WHICH WOULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG LATE. FOR NOW HAVE
MVFR/IFR FOG RETURNING TO MBL VERY LATE TONIGHT (THE ONE SITE
THAT HAD FOG THE PREVIOUS NIGHT).
NNW TO N WINDS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHTER TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...JZ
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