962
FXUS63 KAPX 221051
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY RESULTING IN HIGH SWIM RISKS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEACHES.
-HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES TO OCCUPY THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AS MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS ITS AXIS SOUTH OF
MICHIGAN. POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND CAUSE HIGH WAVE LEVELS ON OUR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEACHES, SUPPORTING A HIGH SWIM RISK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
WEST TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY.
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LARGE SCALE MIDLEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER HUDSON BAY AND BEGINS TO REDEVELOP A
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO, MAKING ITS WAY TO
MICHIGAN AROUND THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
DEPICTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION RETURNS NEXT MONDAY SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY BUILDING DURING TYPICAL DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION, BUT NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY
BENIGN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS
DRY. ONLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE THE HIGH SWIM RISK ACROSS
NUMEROUS SHORELINES OF THE CWA DUE TO SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCE WINDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL TURNING CALM OVERNIGHT AS
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S, BUT WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED 500MB TROUGHING SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO REESTABLISH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION THIS SATURDAY AND STARTS CAUSING A LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHWOODS AT TIMES DUE TO EMBEDDED WAVES SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND REMAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS AROUND HUDSON BAY
AND DRAGS A FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN UPPER, BUT
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME REMAIN AT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTLOOK: TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT EXTENDS ITS AXIS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. DISHEVELED LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND MAKES
ITS WAY TO ONTARIO THIS MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE CWA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS, LIKELY LEADING
TO SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY MEDIUM TO LOW PROBABILITIES OF 0.25” OR
LESS EXPECTED, BUT EMBEDDED CONVECTION COULD ALTER THESE NUMBERS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK, BUT ONLY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
CLEARING SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SOLID
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-
020-021-024-025-031-098-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...DJC
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