191  
FXUS63 KAPX 171514  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
1114 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
RINSE AND REPEAT - THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS VERY SIMILAR  
TO YESTERDAY. CU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY AWAY FROM THE  
LAKESHORES. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN  
THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY  
(NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER). A LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER  
NORTHEAST WIND FIELD WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY  
WITH INLAND PENETRATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCING A LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE AXIS UP THE SPINE OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL  
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERCOLATE FATHER NORTH UP  
THE I-75 AND US-131 CORRIDORS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT  
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS WELL -- LARGELY TIED TO AN INLAND  
CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR THE MACKINAC/CHIPPEWA COUNTY LINE.  
 
WITH RESPECT TO STORM CHANCES, AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, THINK THAT  
ANY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE  
LIGHTNING GIVEN LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG  
MLCAPE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A NEAR CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY EXPECTED  
FOR THE DAY AHEAD AS CLOSED-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO  
SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND...EVENTUALLY EJECTING STAGE RIGHT THURSDAY  
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, BROAD/AMPLIFIED RIDGING ENCOMPASSES  
MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS BEFORE A SHORTWAVE IS  
EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS LATE  
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE  
THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST  
OF JAMES BAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS  
AGAIN TODAY -- PRIMARILY INLAND AREAS.  
 
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT THIS EARLY HOUR WITH SOME  
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND IN AREAS THAT SAW  
SCATTERED CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY,  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING  
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ON THEIR  
WAY TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AREA-WIDE. HOWEVER, CU DEVELOPMENT  
IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY BY LATE MORNING AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.  
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY  
FOCUSED ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS AS YESTERDAY (NORTHEAST AND NORTH-  
CENTRAL LOWER). A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SYNOPTIC NORTHEAST WIND FIELD WILL  
LIKELY PROMOTE MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH  
A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERCOLATE FATHER NORTH UP THE I-75 AND US-131  
CORRIDORS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS  
WELL -- LARGELY TIED TO AN INLAND CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR THE  
MACKINAC/CHIPPEWA COUNTY LINE.  
 
WITH RESPECT TO STORM CHANCES, AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, THINK THAT  
ANY MORE ROBUST/LONGER-LASTING UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO  
PRODUCE LIGHTNING GIVEN LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTING UP TO AROUND 500  
J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING.  
 
CU AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME  
ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL. OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL  
LIKELY BE STREAMING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS AT TIMES DURING THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...TIED TO AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE  
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN WI  
AND THE WESTERN UP. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE AGAIN...  
RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER/INTERIOR  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL ATTM...  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:  
 
HANDFUL OF LITTLE SWIRLIES (I.E., VORT MAXES) IN THE FLOW ACROSS  
CANADA AS OF LAST EVENING...WITH MOST NOTEWORTHY ONES CROSSING INTO  
ALBERTA, ANOTHER TREKKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, AND ANOTHER JUST  
NORTH OF MN IN QUEBEC AS OF 02Z/17 (THIS LATTER ONE WITH SOME  
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE)...THOUGH THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING  
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA. PERHAPS EVEN SOME  
ADDITIONAL WEAK NIBLETS STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN US AS  
WELL, AMID SIGNALS FOR SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DAKOTAS NIBLET...THOUGH  
ONLY WEAK SURFACE RESPONSES WITH NEARLY ALL OF THESE PERTURBATIONS.  
MEANWHILE...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO  
SPIN OFF THE EAST COAST, WITH CONTINUED LIFT/MOISTURE SPREADING  
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF IT; SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS IS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES BEING FUNNELED IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A HUDSON  
BAY HIGH...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL DIURNAL ACTIVITY, AS WE  
SAW EARLIER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AS SOME ENERGY MOVED THROUGH ALOFT  
AMID AN OTHERWISE STEREOTYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH GOOD DIURNAL  
HEATING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET RESPONSE IS ACROSS THE  
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHERE A NW-SE ORIENTED 80+KT UPPER  
LEVEL JET RESIDES NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER  
TROUGH...THOUGH GREATER JET RESPONSE IS UPSTREAM ALONG THE PERIPHERY  
OF TROUGHING HOLDING FIRM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...IN AN UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  
WEAK ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AMID GREATEST  
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN US...AND IN THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE  
NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
LOOKING FORWARD...WILL WATCH TROUGHING JUST TO OUR EAST CONTINUE TO  
SPIN LITTLE NIBLETS OF ENERGY DOWN INTO OUR AREA...KEEPING THINGS  
JUST SHORT OF PERFECTLY QUIET, WEATHER-WISE, THROUGH THE BULK OF THE  
NEXT COUPLE DAYS OR SO...ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AS OTHER UPSTREAM  
NIBLETS DO THE SAME. NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS A VORT MAX THAT DROPS  
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST  
TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES BACK TOWARD THE WEST  
COAST IN RESPONSE TO NIBLETS PASSING THROUGH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IN  
THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF IT DROPPING  
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FIRST, THIS SHOULD FORCE THE CURRENT  
CLOSED-LOW TO OUR EAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT  
IT APPEARS THIS SECOND NIBLET WILL BECOME LARGELY CUT OFF FROM THE  
FLOW AS WELL...AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IT SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH.  
SO WILL LOOK FOR THIS NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST TO BE SLOW TO MEANDER  
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND. WE  
MAY GET INTO SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF IT, THOUGH THE OVERALL  
SUGGESTION IS THERE THAT WE MAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST SUB-  
PERFECTLY-QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MAINLY DIURNAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH  
THE PERIOD...  
 
WEAK NIBLET SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE  
OF THE MORE POTENT ONE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE OUR  
NEXT MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE  
WITH FORCING, THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME  
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS IT SLIDES IN FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. FLOW FRIDAY APPEARS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FOR A CHANGE,  
WHICH SHOULD HELP RELEGATE MOST LAKE BREEZE CONCERNS TO THE SUNRISE  
SIDE. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  
SUPPORT INCREASED BUOYANCY THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY AS  
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND HELPS REALIZE CONDITIONAL  
INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UP AND NW LOWER. SAME DIURNAL  
INSTABILITY TENDENCY, IN THE PRESENCE OF LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE,  
COULD HELP POP SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER DURING  
THE AFTERNOON, WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN BATCH...THOUGH ATMOSPHERE  
APPEARS MUCH DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST  
YOU GO. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SIGNALS FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE INCREASES...SUGGESTING THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE,  
TOO. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION AS  
WELL...NOTING PWATS AGAIN POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 1.25" (AS SOME OF  
THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO OUR NORTHWEST BLEEDS SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH  
TIME), WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS WITH  
THIS...THOUGH SIGNALS ATTM ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING  
SIGNIFICANT, ASIDE FROM WEAK FLOW/SHEAR ALOFT THAT COULD ALLOW  
SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER AN AREA FOR A TIME. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO  
DIMINISH WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES  
AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR  
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND PERHAPS PARTS OF  
NW LOWER OVERNIGHT.  
 
GOING INTO FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SET UP AND MEANDER ACROSS  
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF  
POTENTIAL NUISANCE PRECIP/THUNDER HANGING ON, WHICH COULD/SHOULD BE  
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE DURING  
THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS WHERE SURFACE-  
BASED/MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE FEATURES SET UP (SUCH AS LAKE BREEZES),  
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES LOW-LEVEL THETA-E WITH TIME FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS SURFACE RESPONSE TO OUR  
WEST/SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INDICATE BETTER THUNDER POTENTIAL  
FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WETTER  
FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE CLOSED LOW SPLITS OFF FROM THE  
NORTHERN STREAM...AS THERE COULD BE SOME KIND OF WEAK BOUNDARY/BCZ  
DRIFTING THROUGH WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER FORCING FROM THAT SURFACE  
REFLECTION TO OUR WEST. TIMING AND HOW QUICKLY WE MOISTEN UP/HOW  
MUCH DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WILL BE THE KEY TO PRECIP POTENTIAL  
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SIGNALS  
LOOK DECENT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL IF/ONCE IT STARTS...WITH  
CONTINUED WEAK FLOW OVERALL.  
 
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OTHER CONCERNS SAVE FOR  
PERHAPS SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHTS, ESPECIALLY  
WHEREVER IT RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CLEARS OUT AFTER DARK...  
IS POTENTIAL LOW AFTERNOON RHS...AS GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT  
AND SLOW-TO-CHANGE PATTERN (EVEN DESPITE THE NIBLET DROPPING IN), AT  
LEAST THURSDAY COULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND WILL LARGELY LEAN  
TOWARD PERSISTENCE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE  
FOR A DRIER DAY YET ON THURSDAY AT LEAST. (CAVEAT IS THAT THAT  
PARTICULAR PIECE OF GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER  
TO BEGIN WITH...SO WON'T GO HOG WILD ON DROPPING TDS/RHS ATTM...BUT  
WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE, WHICH IS A SMIDGEN LOWER THAN  
CONSENSUS.) WILL LIKELY HOLD TO PERSISTENCE FOR MAX TS AS WELL FOR  
THURSDAY...SIGNALING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID  
80S...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DRY DAYS,  
TWO OUT OF THREE AIN'T BAD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS SHOULD  
BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVERALL TO PRECLUDE MEETING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER  
METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT  
GOING FORWARD. CONTINUED AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE  
OF CONCERN TO ANY FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS AS WELL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL ATTM...  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:  
 
GUIDANCE DEFINITELY LIKES THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY  
GETTING CUT-OFF AND BECOMING SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST TOWARD  
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND RIGHT ON INTO THE START OF NEXT  
WEEK...THOUGH EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UP FOR GRABS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS  
ENDS UP SETTING UP, AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES ON THROUGH, WILL  
DETERMINE HOW IT IMPACTS OUR WEATHER HERE IN THE MITTEN...THOUGH  
HAVE TO SUSPECT WE WON'T BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY AVOID  
IT...PARTICULARLY AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR INCREASING MOISTURE  
AND INSTABILITY WITH TIME AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES/CROSSES THE  
REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT BEST POTENTIAL FOR  
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY TO OUR SOUTH (WHICH SEEMS  
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT GUIDANCE SIGNALS). MEANWHILE...FURTHER  
UPSTREAM, IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER BIT OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE  
PACNW BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD HELP  
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO SOME DEGREE...WHILE BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER  
TROUGHING SPINS OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND MAY BEGIN TO SEND  
NIBLETS OUR WAY TO EFFECTIVELY "PICK UP" THE CLOSED LOW IN OUR  
REGION...AS ADDITIONAL TROUGHING SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HELPS AMPLIFY THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AGAIN...THOUGH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 607 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
ANY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN  
TERMINALS. SOME GENERALLY HI-BASED CU ALONG WITH SHRA/TSRA  
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AWAY FROM THE  
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS  
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES POTENTIALLY TURNING WINDS MORE  
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA AS GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DOMINATE TODAY. LAKE  
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY TURN WINDS  
MORE ONSHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY AND  
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE  
WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JK  
NEAR TERM...MJG  
SHORT TERM...FEF  
LONG TERM...FEF  
AVIATION...MJG  
MARINE...MJG  
 
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