221
FXUS63 KAPX 191818
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
218 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TONIGHT WITH COLDER POCKETS POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 30S.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
BENIGN AND OVERALL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PATCHY
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND
AREAS THAT RECEIVED BETTER RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR AIRMASS TONIGHT ORIGINATING NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA - WHICH HAD SOME LOWS IN THE 30S LAST
NIGHT. CERTAINLY WIDESPREAD 40S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN (MILDER LAKESHORE AREAS) WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL
COLDER POCKETS IN THE INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DIPPING
INTO THE 30S.
A BIGGER PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OUT
OF HUDSON BAY, GRADUALLY CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ADVECTION PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FROM
WEST-EAST STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A TOUCH
OF FALL FEEL WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT (SORRY TO USE THAT WORD THIS
EARLY IN THE YEAR) SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER TO
JUST SOME SCATTERED 6,000FT CU THROUGH EVENING. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS SOME BR / FG AT MBL, BUT NOT A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR NOW. REPEAT FOR THURSDAY... SCATTERED ELEVATED
CUMULUS DECK. NW WINDS GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...HAD
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