577
FXUS63 KAPX 030345
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF THIS WORK
WEEK
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
- TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO END THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO EXIT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST, TAKING
CORRIDOR OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST ALONG
WITH IT. LARGE AREA OF CANADA ORIGINATED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES, WITH ATTENDANT AGGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE, AND HELPING SCATTER OUT SOME OF THE OVERCAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. WHILE NOTHING TOO EXTREME, SYSTEM BACKSIDE NORTHEAST
WINDS USHERING IN A SEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS,
WITH CURRENT READINGS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OFF TO OUR EAST, REPLACED
BY RATHER STOUT MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE
REFLECTION TO KICK OFF THIS WORK WEEK. CENTRAL NOAM UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE, WITH NEXT WAVE AND COLD
FRONT TO VISIT THE AREA THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITE STILL SUPPORT
BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATING NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEATHER TO END THE
WEEK ON INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT
FOR A MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ADDRESSING PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON WEDNESDAY.
DETAILS:
REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS INTO TUESDAY AS VERTICALLY STACKED
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. SKIES CONTINUE TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT, AND WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM, WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN MORE OPEN AREAS AND OVER/NEAR INLAND BODIES OF WATER.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN A BIT CHILLY, WITH SOME OF OUR
TRADITIONAL COLDER INTERIOR AREAS LIKELY MAKING A RUN INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. JUST ABOUT IDEAL EARLY AUGUST WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH SUN-FILLED SKIES AND MILD TO WARM WEATHER. SIMPLE
AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MONDAY REACH NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW,
COUPLED WITH THAT SUNSHINE, WILL HELP TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WHEN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED.
WEATHER TURNS A BIT MORE ACTIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WORK
INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH COLLOCATED NICELY WITH RATHER
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS. EXPECT AT LEAST
A BROKEN LINE(S) OF CONVECTION TO ATTEND THIS WAVE, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY SUPPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS (DEPENDENT ON
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TIMING OF COURSE). NOT TENTATIVELY SEEING ANY
REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN
THREAT, ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN MODEST CONVECTIVE DEPTH
WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP AND OVER AN INCH AND A
HALF. WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER DOES HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK WORDING
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS ON WEDNESDAY, SPECIFICALLY MENTIONING THOSE
IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK THOSE DETAILS OUT IN
THE COMING DAYS.
REST OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL, ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY PASSING HARD TO TIME
WAVES WITHIN THAT BROAD OVERHEAD TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO
THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A TOUCH OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, HAVE PLN/MBL LOWERED TO 3SM
AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR AND QUIET. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, THEN
RETURNING ON MONDAY (THOUGH A LITTLE LESS BREEZY THAN SUNDAY).
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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