805
FXUS63 KAPX 031724
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS TONIGHT...ENDING ON SUNDAY
- WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
- SEASONABLY MILD WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
HIGH PRESSURE (RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS FROST-PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES) PUSHING STEADILY OFF TO OUR EAST...FORCED TO DO SO BY
RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. WEAK RETURN FLOW AND MORNING SUNSHINE HELPING DRIVE A
RESPECTABLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...WITH
CURRENT READINGS MAKING A RUN INTO THE 60S.
UPSTREAM WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK STEADILY EAST,
SLICING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SURGE OF SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR TO FOLLOW THIS WAVE TO
KICK OFF NEXT WORK WEEK. PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES REMAINING
COMPLETELY DISCONNECTED TO ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES NEXT WEEK WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THESE WAVES. HOWEVER, TRENDS AND SIMPLE
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORT ANY REAL CHILLY ARE REMAINING REMOVED
TO OUR NORTH AFTER MONDAY NIGHT, AND SHOWER CHANCES BEING LIMITED
WITH ONLY DEPLETED PACIFIC SUPPLIED MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY CENTERING ON MONDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS:
SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THAT UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES. AGAIN, JUXTAPOSITION OF
BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH THE VERTICAL LOOKS TO
CENTER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BE MOST NUMEROUS UP THERE, WITH OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE
AND ORGANIZATION DECREASING AS ONE TRAVELS SOUTH. DEFINITELY NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS WITH OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT
COULD SEE SOME BETTER THAN QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THAT BIG BRIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WORK EAST ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT EAST ALONG
WITH THEM. DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT,
HELPING DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S BY LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FROST, ALTHOUGH
MAINTENANCE OF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ITS FORMATION.
MAY ALSO SEE A LIMITED RESPONSE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR, BUT ANY SHOWER
THREAT INTO EASTERN UPPER SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MUTED BY RATHER
DRY MOISTURE PROFILES.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY, CHILLY OVERHEAD AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
SOME COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE SHOULD BE A QUICK AND
AGGRESSIVE ONE WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENING. MAY
SEE A BIT OF LATE NIGHT RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. STILL, LIKELY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS BEFORE ANY
RECOVERY CAN OCCUR.
REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TRENDS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES (BUT WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF THE
MORE TYPICAL NORMAL SPREAD THAT OCCURS IN OCTOBER). MAY SEE SOME
LOW END SHOWER CHANCES AT TIMES, BUT OVERALL THEME SHOULD BE LARGELY
A DRY ONE AS MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN VERY LIMITED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 12Z SUN. TONIGHT, A
QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE 06-12Z
PERIOD, MOST WIDESPREAD THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES. HOWEVER, DUE
TO A DRY COLUMN INITIALLY, CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING
THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH LLWS THRESHOLDS, BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW LEVELS REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT TO OMIT LLWS FROM THE TAFS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AROUND 12-15Z SUN, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT, ALONG WITH
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...MQT
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