735  
FXUS63 KAPX 151918  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
318 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
..WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MARGINAL RISK OF A SEVERE STORM.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH IMPACTED  
MUCH OF OUR CWA TODAY HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO LAKE HURON.  
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE IN  
RESPONSE TO A MINOR INCREASE IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY...AS  
WELL AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ALONG AND  
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FRONT ITSELF HAS REACHED OUR SW CWA...AND  
IS STILL PROJECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA  
THRU THIS EVENING PER LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS. SPC MESOANALYSIS  
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM...AND  
THIS REMAIN OUR GREATEST LIMITATION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS MCS. RESIDUAL THICK CLOUD  
COVER IS RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH  
LATEST VSBL SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW A CLEARING LINE TRYING TO MAKE  
ITS WAY INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO AT LEAST  
PARTIALLY FILL BACK INTO THESE CLEARING AREAS...BOTH ACROSS OUR  
WESTERN CWA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN. SOME SPOTTY WEAK  
CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN WITH NO  
REAL ORGANIZATION AS OF YET.  
 
STILL EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THRU OUR CWA  
AND WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PROCEEDS. HOW MUCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
FEW STRONGER STORMS LIES MAINLY WITHIN THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL  
INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE HEAT OF THE  
DAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA THRU  
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA FOR HIGHEST  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT  
LIFTS THRU OUR CWA. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A  
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM FOR LOCATIONS ABLE TO SUFFICIENTLY  
DESTABILIZE.  
 
WITH ONGOING WAA...CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF  
CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A RATHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH REST OF WEEK  
 
SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BARRY ARE IN THE PROCESS OF  
GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THIS MAIN FLOW IS A VERY WEAK  
JET BETWEEN 60 AND 80 KTS, CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE  
CONUS. VARIOUS WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS. LOOKS LIKE QUITE THE HOT PATTERN COMING UP WITH THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
DETAILS/CONCERNS: IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM  
SECTOR TUESDAY, WITH DECENT CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES  
REMAIN NEAR 20 KTS, WITH THE MAIN JET CORE DISPLACED UP INTO  
ONTARIO, THUS ORGANIZED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. THE MAIN  
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ACTUAL DIURNAL HEATING WE'LL SEE DURING THE DAY  
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD  
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, AND BARRY TO THE SOUTH, WE MAY SEE A NARROW  
CORRIDOR WITH SOME DECENT SUN ALONG M-55. THIS MAY BE THE BEST PLACE  
FOR THUNDER TO BE HEARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AND THICKER  
CLOUD COVER TRIES TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST OF IT GETS STUCK DOWNSTATE AS THE NORTHERN  
STREAM COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OUR AREA, BEFORE STALLING OUT IN  
SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY,  
GIVING US CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN, AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF  
OF THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. HEADING INTO LATE WEEK A 120KT PACIFIC JET WILL START  
PUSHING ACROSS THE CONUS NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THURSDAY COULD  
GET INTERESTING WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT PV-ANOMALY SWINGING  
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME DECENT BULK SHEAR ABOVE 40 KTS, MID-  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM, AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL MAKE  
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. OF COURSE THIS FAR OUT THERE IS SOME  
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS, AND WE COULD END UP GETTING INTO AN  
UNFAVORABLE JET EXIT REGION, BUT IT STILL BEARS WATCHING.  
 
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED QUITE A BIT BY CLOUD  
COVER. FOR NOW WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S (A BIT LOWER THAN  
GUIDANCE) AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE  
STICKING AROUND AT NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEIGHTS START TO BUILD OVER US AGAIN  
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, PUSHING THE THE STORM TRACK INTO ONTARIO.  
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, WITH SUBTLE WAVES PASSING THROUGH FAIRLY  
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID  
60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR  
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT LAYS INTO  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THEN STALLS OVER OUR AREA. OVERALL  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH  
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR WITHIN HEAVIER  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LLWS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL  
BE FROM THE S/SW AOB 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...  
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH SCA CRITERIA WITHIN OUR LAKE MICHIGAN  
NEARSHORE AREAS AND WITHIN THE STRAITS TONIGHT AS WINDS STRENGTHEN  
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. CONDITIONS MAY REACH SCA  
CRITERIA ON OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS BY TUESDAY AS THAT FRONT  
LAYS INTO OUR REGION. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN  
THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO  
LIFT INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY  
FOR LHZ345.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY  
FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MR  
SHORT TERM...STJ  
LONG TERM...STJ  
AVIATION...MR  
MARINE...MR  
 
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