446
FXUS63 KAPX 211051
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
651 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME MORNING FOG, AS WELL AS LATE TONIGHT
- OTHERWISE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY/QUIET INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG, NORTHERN MI WX CONTINUES TO BE QUIET.
SOME LAYERED CLOUD IS SEEN WELL UPSTREAM, OVER FAR NORTHERN MN
AND ADJOINING PARTS OF CANADA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHERN MI LATE TODAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AND BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN LATE TODAY. THOUGH AVAILABLE FORCING IS
REASONABLE, MOISTURE IS NOT.
PER SAT IMAGERY, EARLY MORNING FOG IS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED
IN CENTRAL/WESTERN CHIPPEWA CO, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE NE LOWER
MI. THIS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LOCALLY INHIBIT
DIURNAL HEATING AT LEAST FOR A BIT. MODELS HAVE A SMIDGE OF
MUCAPE THIS MORNING NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD, BUT NOT ANY CLOSER
THAN THAT. A BAND OF SCT SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO PASS NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENING.
CERTAINLY NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR US TO SQUEEZE OUT A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER IN THE EASTERN UP LATE TODAY, CHIPPEWA CO IN PARTICULAR.
BUT THIS CHANCE REMAINS TOO SMALL TO MENTION.
COLD FRONT SETTLES TO THE MI/OH BORDER TONIGHT, WITH TRAILING
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. POST-FRONTAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER IN THE NORTH THAN SOUTH, WHICH
MAKES THE RETURN OF FOG TONIGHT LESS LIKELY IN THE NORTH.
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN NW/N
CENTRAL LOWER MI. WE WON'T QUITE AS WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AS TODAY, BUT STILL QUIET.
500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING AND SHARPENING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. QUIET AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AGAIN. AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK, UP TOWARD JAMES
AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY, WILL TAMP DOWN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, AND DRAPE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS FOR THE STRAITS AREA AND
EASTERN UPPER MI LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF NORTHERN ENERGY WILL FURTHER SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AFTER
THAT. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE
BIGGER STORY IS A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN. SOME HIGHS WILL NOT
ESCAPE THE 40S, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN UP. (NOTE THAT THIS IS
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMO.)
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
DEALING WITH SOME FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING, AND SOME ADDITIONAL
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. APN/MBL HAVE HAS THE HIGHEST IMPACT
FOG AT TIMES THIS MORNING, WITH LESS FOG AT CIU/PLN, AND NONE AT
TVC. FOG WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG TO RETURN TO
MBL/APN/PLN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SW BREEZE TODAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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