845
FXUS63 KAPX 180756
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A HANDFUL OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER TODAY
- BREEZY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TODAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
MID DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH
- HAZARDOUS SWIM CONDITIONS TODAY FOR MANISTEE AND LAKE HURON
BEACHES FROM ALPENA TO TAWAS
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TIMES OF PRECIP CHANCES LINGER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG AS A 991 MB SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CAN WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER MI. THIS UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE GRADUAL EXIT
WILL EVENTUALLY USHER IN DRIER AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS LARGER SCALE FORCING LEAVES, HOWEVER WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR PULSE TYPE CONVECTION MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
QUICK STOP TO VERTICAL ASCENT WITH THE EL JUST ABOVE 700MBS.
AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THIS LAYER, WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP A COUPLE SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE
STRONGER. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
SMALL HAIL (LOW CHANCES OF AN INCH OR GREATER), BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
WIDESPREAD PATCHES OF NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE SEEN 0.5 TO +1 INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MISSAUKEE AND ROSCOMMON COUNTIES HAVE
SEEN SOME OF THE MOST (AT LEAST ONE NARROW SWATH APPROACHING 2
INCHES). ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL HAS BEEN GRADUAL, IT IS SATURATING
SOILS. IF THUNDERSTORMS BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON, LOCALIZED PONDING IN LOW SPOTS AND ALONG CREEKS/RIVERS
COULD BE SEEN. CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.
WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
GUSTS HAVE RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS SEAS (SMALL CRAFTS) OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS, AS WELL AS HAZARDOUS SWIM CONDITIONS FOR MANISTEE,
ALPENA, ALCONA, AND IOSCO COUNTIES WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE 3 TO 5 FT
WAVES AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF RIPE CURRENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
CHANCES FOR WEAK SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPPER
SHORTWAVES ROTATING OVER MN/WI TOWARDS MI, BRINGING WEAK
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY, GUIDANCE DROPS
THE LARGER UPPER LOW OVER MI. CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER CLOSED
LOW EXITS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
RAIN TRANSITIONING SHOWERS, WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN CENTRAL LOWER
MI. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR TSRA FOR OUR SITES TONIGHT, MBL/TVC/APN
IN PARTICULAR. IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE TO EXPAND/DEVELOP
NORTHWARD, AND WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. PRECIP EXITS THURSDAY, AND CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPROVE. BREEZIER NW WINDS KICKING IN THURSDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ024-030-
031-036.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ345-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-
349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ
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