401
FXUS63 KAPX 221744
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1244 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
REMAINING WELL UNDER AN INCH
- MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
- GUSTY WINDS, WARM TEMPS, AND GRUNGE POTENTIAL MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
EARLIER FLURRIES IN NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE WANED PER RADAR.
HOWEVER, NEXT IN A SERIES OF DIGGING SHORTWAVES IS CROSSING
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. THIS IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS THAT ARE
PARTIALLY VIRGA, BUT PARTIALLY REACHING THE SURFACE (-SN AND 2SM
AT SAW). SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE HERE TOWARD MIDDAY THRU THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF M-32. A TOUCH OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI ON WSW SURFACE WINDS. SO PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS WILL PICK UP A THIN COATING OF NEW SNOW, BUT BETTER
MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
FORECAST PATTERN... BROAD SCALE AND PSUEDO-ZONAL UPPER TROUGHING
FORMS OVER EASTERN CAN AND US TODAY. A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE OVER NORTHERN MI
THIS MORNING. DOWN IN MI, THE FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
FORCING WILL LIKELY BE WASHED OUT (SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, INDICATING MOST OF THE BOUNDARY
IS ALOFT - WINDS DO TURN NW AT 850MB). AS A RESULT OF THIS WEAK
FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE, CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE SEEN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
HIGH 20S AND LOW 30S BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY TO LOW
END GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW 20S.
FORECAST DETAILS... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COULD ALLOW A FEW SPOTS TO MAYBE SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW, BUT THAT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE DIFFERING WIND DIRECTIONS IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND LACK OF OVERALL FORCING TO BEGIN WITH. CLOUD
COVER COULD BE THIN ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO LET ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN
TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
1038MB BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY. SUBTLE PV
MAXIMA AND ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GETTING
SQUASHED AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NW US AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE. WEAK SHORTWAVE TREKKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ATTM WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
REFLECTION. COOLER AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SINK INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...WHERE 850MB TEMPS DROP WELL INTO THE MINUS-TEENS C WITH
SOME POLAR AIR. THERMAL GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL CANADA
STRENGTHENING...WITH SURFACE REFLECTION STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA DOWN
INTO MANITOBA/DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION IN PLAY THIS WEEKEND...AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DROPPING
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO SLIP BY PRIMARILY
TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT NOT WITHOUT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION (MAYBE EVEN STRAIGHT-UP RAIN?) TO OUR REALM FOR
A CHANGE. BCZ IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM HANGS OUT OVER US EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER NIBLET OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO OUR WEST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LARGELY ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS THE UPSTREAM PATTERN
BUCKLES...RESULTING IN LONGWAVE TROUGHING TRYING TO SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH SNOW AND COLDER
WEATHER TRYING TO RETURN.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE/DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE
EUP...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR ACTUAL PRECIP/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE MOVE OVERHEAD. DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THIS, WHICH
COULD AID IN POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT MORE
POTENT QPF IN SPOTS, NOTING PWATS RUNNING UP ABOVE A HALF-INCH.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES
OF WET/CONCRETE-MIXER TYPE SNOW FOR THE EUP GOING INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE, WHICH BEARS SOME WATCHING, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARMER AIR IS ABLE TO GET SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THERMAL PROFILES ATTM HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
LOWER/MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT COULD LEAD TO THINGS FLIPPING BETWEEN
FLAKES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. ATTM NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
MORE PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET, AS THE WARM NOSE MAY NOT
NECESSARILY BE STRONG...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IN CASE
SURFACE TEMPS END UP REMAINING COOLER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE SAME
AMOUNT OF WARM NOSE. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER, ESP TOWARD CENTRAL LOWER, COULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN MONDAY
MORNING AS THE WARMER PUNCH OF AIR SLIPS IN (LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE
YOOP BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE IT COULD END UP WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN UP
HERE AS WELL). THINK WE WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY
EVENING AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALOFT SLIPS IN MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND TEMPS FLUCTUATE AROUND FREEZING.
GUSTY WINDS, WARM TEMPS, AND GRUNGE POTENTIAL MONDAY...DRY SLOT
COULD ALSO BOOST WINDS HIGHER THAN PERHAPS FORECAST (850, 700MB
WINDS AROUND 30-40+ KTS COULD MIX DOWN IF THE DRY SLOT IS VIGOROUS
ENOUGH). MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST COULD
CERTAINLY LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER IN PARTICULAR. HOWEVER...DO WORRY THAT INCREASED
MOISTURE/WINDS OVER OUR SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN FOG/LOW STRATUS
GRUNGE FROM MELTING SNOW...ALONG WITH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND FOR
NOW, HAVE HELD OFF ON BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMTH ON MONDAY.
HAVE LEFT THE FOG IDEA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT THINK
ADVECTIVE FOG COULD VERY WELL BECOME A CONCERN GOING FORWARD. THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT, COMBINED WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW/RAINFALL, COULD CERTAINLY HEIGHTEN CONCERNS FOR HYDRO ISSUES
(ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND/OR WHERE DRAINS ARE CURRENTLY
BLOCKED BY SNOW). THINK ICE JAMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE AREA
RIVERS AT TIMES AS WELL...AS TEMPERATURES TRY TO FLUCTUATE ABOVE
FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
MVFR/VFR MIX.
COOL AIR IN PLACE, RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. MBL/TVC SHOULD TEND TOWARD
MOSTLY VFR BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. APN/PLN/CIU WILL MIXED
MVFR/VFR THRU THE FORECAST. THOSE SITES ALSO HAVE A CHANCE FOR
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS EVENING.
SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY WSW WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
344.
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ
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