880
FXUS63 KAPX 281006
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
606 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, HOTTEST PERIOD BEING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES 95+ DEGREES.
- FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER (OUTSIDE OF ANY BRIEF FOG THIS MORNING)
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALTHOUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD.
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, WITH
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND THE BEGINNING OF OUR HOTTER AND
MORE HUMID STRETCH OF WEATHER. HEIGHTS REMAIN ABNORMALLY HIGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S, UPPER 90S POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN, FROM SAGINAW BAY AND GENERALLY EAST OF I-75. STILL
QUESTIONS ON HOW MUDDY THE WATERS BECOME WITH CONVECTION UPSTREAM AS
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHETHER CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED OR SYNOPTICALLY GENERATED, TRY TO IMPINGE ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MID TO LATE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, A HOT AND HUMID STRETCH OF
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH WET BULB GLOBAL TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH
TO EXTREME RANGE, MEANING THE BODY WILL STRUGGLE TO COOL ITSELF.
THUS, HEAT EXHAUSTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANYONE EXERTING
THEMSELVES OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. FUTURE EXTREME
HEAT WATCHES/HEAT ADVISORIES PROBABLE.
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHERN MI, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY, SPC
CLIPS GTB AND POINTS SOUTHWEST WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE STORMS. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ELEVATED
OVERTOP OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL
THE FORCING ALIGN WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
MATERIALIZE A SEVERE THREAT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL THOSE
INGREDIENTS, OR FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN, WILL BE MID TO LATE WEEK AS PERTURBATION MOVE NORTHEAST
WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THAT
BEING SAID, THIS IS A VOLATILE SETUP THIS FAR OUT WITH PLENTY OF
CHANGES EXPECTED. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ZONAL LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH STILL WARM AND ACTIVE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
ANY FOG/MIST AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING,
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SOME RELATIVE HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING GIVES WAY TO A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS WESTERN TAF LOCATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANY THIS MID CLOUD DECK,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION REMAINS HIGH.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS DO BECOME A
BIT GUSTY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT KTVC AND KMBL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB
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