985
FXUS63 KAPX 012344
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWER THREAT ENDS SUNDAY MORNING
- DRY WEATHER KICKS OFF NEXT WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES BY MID-WEEK
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WORKING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ANCHORED BY CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. JUXTAPOSITION OF BEST FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TIED TO THAT ANCHOR POINT, BRINGING MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
AND SUBSTANTIAL RAINS TO THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. FORCING AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOT NEARLY ON THE SAME SCALE IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS, KEEPING OUR SHOWERS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED AND INTENSE. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS HOWEVER, HELPING KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES....WITH CURRENT READING IN THE 60S TO
LOW/MID 70S.
NEARLY COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF SOUTHERN PORTION OF MID LEVEL
TROUGHING EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (BROAD MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION LOOKS TO CENTER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY) AS OUR
OVERHEAD FLOW REGIME REMAINING QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY THREAT FOR OUR TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST DOG DAYS OF
SUMMER HEAT LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY, PASSING WAVES WITHIN THAT
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AT TIMES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SHOWER EVOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND ADDRESSING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DETAILS:
STILL EXPECTING SOME PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING (PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES) WITH PASSING MID LEVEL
TROUGHING AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. FOOTPRINT OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LARGELY OVER WITH BY THE
AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF CANADA ORIGINATED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHWOODS SUNDAY NIGHT, SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP WHAT SHOULD BE SOME IDEAL SUMMER WEATHER,
WITH SUN-FILLED SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S
(WARMEST TUESDAY), AND LOW HUMIDITY.
FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
SET TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LIKELY DRUMMING UP
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PROCESS. DISCONNECT
BETWEEN THIS FORCING AND DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD PREVENT THIS FROM BECOMING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT.
TRENDS SUPPORT BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGHING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AGAIN, THIS LOOKS TO KEEP ANY HEAT WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION. PERIODIC WAVES WITHIN RELATIVE FAST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES
AT TIMES, BUT NOT SEEING ANY REAL EVIDENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS AS LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE WIND ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING OFF TO OUR EAST
WHERE RIDGE/TROUGH INTERFACE WILL RESIDE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CIGS AND PERHAPS VSBYS WILL LOWER TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AND/OR DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST. BUT STRATOCU AND
STRATUS WILL LIKELY EXPAND LATE TONIGHT. KEEP CIU VFR, BUT THE
NORTHERN LOWER MI SITES ARE MVFR OVERNIGHT, AND APN WILL DROP TO
IFR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, A NE BREEZE DEVELOPS SUNDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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