030
FXUS63 KAPX 282341
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, MOST
IMPACTFUL ACROSS KALKASKA COUNTY AND VICINITY.
- VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
SHORT WAVE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING,
FOCUSING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MI. SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MI AS WELL, RESULTING IN AN
EVEN COLDER AIRMASS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER WIND CHILL OR AIR TEMPERATURE. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE NNW, AND THUS MORE BROADER LIGHT SNOWS WILL FOCUS ACROSS
THE KALKASKA - GTB REGION RESULTING IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ACROSS THIS LOCALIZED REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MARGINAL
LAKE EFFECT NEAR THE LAKE MI COAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LEELANAU PENINSULA, WITH LOW VISIBILITY THE MAIN CONCERN.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
ACCUMULATING SNOW:
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROADER AREA OF
SNOW THIS EVENING, SHIFTING TO NNW LAKE EFFECT. A VERY NARROW AREA
OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, CENTERING AROUND KALK COUNTY,
AND BLEEDING NORTHWEST TO SOME EXTENT INTO GT COUNTY, AND FAR
SOUTHWEST ANTRIM COUNTY AND VICINITY. ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR A PERIOD
ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA, WITH 2-4" OF SNOW, LOCALLY
HIGHER. COULD THERE BE A SCENARIO WHERE KALKASKA GETS ~>4-5" IF
THE DGZ STAYS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS
FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD? CERTAINLY, BUT THAT AREA OF CONCERN
IS SO NARROW AND SO LOCALIZED A PRODUCT WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. WILL CERTAINLY HINT AT IT IN THE DSS AND GRAPHICS
PRODUCTS, AND IF IT SNOWS 10", SO BE IT.
COLD TEMPERATURES:
AS IS TYPICAL WITH SOME OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSIONS, WE'LL BE DEALING
WITH HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS DIE OFF AND HOW LOW THE AIR TEMPS DIP.
THROUGH A COMBINATION OF THE TWO, WILL LIKELY SEE AIR TEMPS/WIND
CHILLS FLIRTING WITH THE -15 TO -20F RANGE. NOTORIOUSLY SHELTERED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR NEGATIVE
TEENS AND LOWER, WITH ANY LIGHT BREEZE ELSEWHERE RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS -15 AND LOWER. REGARDLESS, EXTREME COLD WATCH WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AND WE'LL DEAL WITH THE
COLD THURSDAY NIGHT DURING THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT DEFORMATION WILL
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. NOT A TON OF
MOISTURE OR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE, JUST SOME LINGERING
LAKE SNOWS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS
TEMPS PLUNGE AGAIN INTO THE ~ -10 TO -20 RANGE WITH EVEN COLDER
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY UNEVENTFUL WITH DRY CONDITIONS LARGELY
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY, TEMPS IN THE 20S ARE LIKELY
ALONG WITH AREAS OF SUNSHINE. NEXT FEATURE WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, LARGELY LIGHT IN
ACCUMULATIONS. PROGGED TEMPS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN MORE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES TVC/MBL/CIU THIS EVENING, TENDING TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OTHERWISE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR. WINDS
BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT, AND LIGHTER LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-032>036-086>088-
095>097-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ086.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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