023
FXUS63 KAPX 302328
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-DRAWN-OUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ENHANCED BY WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEMS TO BRING AMPLE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SNOWBELTS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH-IMPACTS TO TRAVEL IN THE SNOWBELTS... MINOR IMPACTS
ELSEWHERE.
-ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO MORE SNOW, ESPECIALLY INT HE
SNOWBELTS.
-TRENDING A TOUCH MILDER NEXT WEEK WITH MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE POWERFUL WINTRY SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAS
MADE ITS DEPARTURE TO THE EAST, BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA... AND THUS PLACING THE GREAT LAKES
INTO A ZONE OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AMID
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS. AS A RESULT OF US BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE, THE RESULT WILL BE A FIRE BRIGADE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE LAKES IN THE FORM OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
AMPLE OVERLAKE INSTABILITY IS CONTINUING TO DRUM UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AS I TYPE THIS DISCUSSION... WITH WNW TO NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS
IMPACTING THE NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER SNOWBELTS. THE FIRST
CLIPPER IS STARTING TO SHOW THE WHITES OF ITS EYES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND WEST TO WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL DELIVER A BOOST OF
MOISTURE CONTENT THAT RESULTS IN A FLARE UP EFFICIENT LAKE SNOWS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS... TAPERING A
TOUCH INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF NEW YEAR'S EVE. LIGHTER SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ELSEWHERE... PROBABLY IN THE ORDER OF AN INCH AT MOST... WITH
PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DELIVERED BY ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT CAN LEAK OUT OF THE SNOWBELTS. IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS INITIAL SYSTEM, ANOTHER MORE POTENT WAVE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION, FLARING THINGS BACK UP THROUGH THE DAY ON NEW YEAR'S EVE...
WITH WINDS VEERING EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE NW. REGARDLESS... THIS WILL
BE A DRAWN OUT BUT STILL IMPACTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE
SNOWBELT LOCALES.
WNW FLOW FAVORED SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND MORE TRUE NW FLOW
SPOTS IN THE EASTERN YOOP WILL BE THE BREADWINNERS FOR THIS EVENT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWCASE EXQUISITE LOW LEVEL LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WITH SATURATION ALL THROUGH THE COLUMN, CONTINUING INTO
THE INVERSION ALOFT AS WELL. THERE IS SOME HESITATION TO DISMISS THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE CAMS THAT ARE TRYING TO SPIT OUT SOME PRETTY BEEFY
TOTALS (10"+ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY) CONSIDERING THESE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS. NONETHELESS... ANTICIPATING THOSE TOTALS TO WIND UP
BEING THE CEILING FOR THE EVENT WHERE ANY BANDING REMAINS MORE
PERSISTENT... MOST OTHER SNOWBELT LOCALES (SPECIFICALLY ANTRIM,
OTSEGO, KALKASKA, CRAWFORD, AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YOOP)
PROBABLY SEE A GENERAL 3 TO 7 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH OF
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT, A GENERAL 2 TO 5
INCHES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ADDITIONAL LAKE SNOWS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON NEW YEAR'S EVE WILL KEEP
THOSE TOTALS PILING UP AS WE BID ADIEU TO 2025 IN APPROPRIATE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FASHION. AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORE OF THE NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
SNOWBELTS... WITH ANOTHER GENERAL 1 TO 3 ELSEWHERE ACROSS NW
LOWER... PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. AS
SUCH, WITH TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 12-15" CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE BY THE
TIME WE REACH WEDNESDAY EVENING / NIGHT, WILL BE UPGRADING THE AREAS
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THOSE TOTALS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
AND EXPANDING ADVISORIES WHERE NECESSARY. SHOULD BE NOTED... WITH
WINDS LOOKING TO VEER MORE NW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, HEADLINE SHUFFLING AND PERHAPS EVEN EXPANSION MAY BE
NECESSITATED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHIFTING WITH
THE PREVAILING FLOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE ACTIVE WINTRY STRETCH MARCHES ON WITH NO SIGNS OF STOPPING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... IT'S GONNA GET REPETITIVE, Y'ALL... LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWCASES ANOTHER BATCH OF SHORTWAVES / CLIPPER SYSTEMS
ZIPPING THROUGH THE REGION, EACH BRINGING THEIR OWN FLARE UPS OF
LAKE EFFECT / ENHANCED SNOWFALL. IN PARTICULAR, THE TIMEFRAME OF
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEAR TO STAND OUT FOR POTENTIAL PASSAGES OF THESE
DISTURBANCES, WHICH ALMOST ALL SHOULD BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE
REGION, AND MORE APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL TO THE SNOWBELT LOCALES.
GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO FLEX AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK, WHICH ON PAPER SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT OF A SUPPRESSION
OF THE LAKE EFFECT BONANZA... BUT DOES TOO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WAA WING TO PASS THROUGH... WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS ALOFT LIKE A
HAWK IF THIS CAN MATERIALIZE.... FOR THE TIME BEING, GUIDANCE WANTS
TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL (MID-TO-UPPER 20S) INTO NEXT WEEK... SO IF
THIS WARM ADVECTION PUSH COMES WITH PRECIP AND A WARM NOSE, THAT
MEANS WE COULD BE STARING DOWN ANOTHER WINDOW FOR P-TYPE CONCERNS IF
EVERYTHING GOES HORRIBLY AWRY ALOFT. MORE DETAILS TO COME... BUT
UNTIL THEN... SNOW LOVERS AND WINTER RECREATION ENTHUSIASTS... BE
SURE TO KICK OFF 2026 ON A GOOD NOTE AND GET OUT AND ENJOY ALL THAT
THE REGION HAS TO OFFER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT,
THEN A RAMP UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS, TAF PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIDDLED WITH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS FOR MOST, WITH
LOWERED VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES, UP TO 15-20 KNOTS TONIGHT, THEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ016-
017-020-025-026-031-032-088-095-096-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ021-022-
027-028-086-087.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MJG
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