837
FXUS63 KAPX 231439
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
ROTATION OUR OF S LOWER. A RELATIVELY CHILLY AIR MASS SO FAR THIS
SEASON, AS THE LOWS THIS MORNING, IN SOME LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO
THE MID 30S. THE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, HAS BURNED
OFF, AND MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WITH IT. MAIN CLOUD MASS THAT
HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER FROM E UPPER THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN
TO THIN OUT AS THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN.
HOWEVER, FAIR WEATHER CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
THE FORECAST, SO FAR, HAS BEEN GOOD, SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED, OTHER
THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AS THE CLOUDS MIX/DEVELOP OVER THE
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019
IMPACTFUL WEATHER: MINIMAL/NONE.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND SFC HIGHER PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY BACK THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FORCING ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN WAS NEGLIGIBLE/NIL WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WAS BRINGING H8 TEMPS OF 6-8C OVER THE
REGION, COOL ENOUGH FOR 13-15C DELTA-T'S, BUT NOTHING ON RADAR ATTM.
THE AIR MASS ON LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY-LOOKING, WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT.
THE MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN WEATHER. OUTSIDE
OF THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING, NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.
THE ONLY CLOUDS FORESEEN BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TYPICAL CUMULUS,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THROUGH THE 40S, WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOLER LOW
LYING AREAS SNEAKING INTO THE UPPER 30S. PRETTY QUIET.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REBOUNDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BEFORE A RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, QUIET AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SLOWLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFT OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPSTREAM/INCOMING COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY ADVANCE AS FAR AS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY,
THUS ALLOWING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING A BIT ON SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID
70S BEFORE CLIMBING SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
VARYING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT REGARDING DETAILED
TIMING, PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DETAILS, BUT UNFAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING PREVENTS A MENTION OF THUNDER, AT LEAST FOR NOW
(WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AND COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
THAT MAY POP UP THROUGH DAYBREAK IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN, OTHERWISE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
AND PRECIP-FREE VFR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AM
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING EAST. THE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH WINDS INCREASING
AND TURNING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NO
HEADLINES FORESEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
IN CHECK.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
UPDATE...JL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
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