607
FXUS63 KAPX 180709
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
309 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY
- OTHERWISE WARMER AND QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
UPPER TROFFING IS PROGRESSING FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES AND
EASTERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THIS WILL GET LEFT
BEHIND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST, REMAINING JUST EAST OF NC/VA THRU
MIDWEEK. ALSO BY MIDWEEK, ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO
JUST OFF OF CA. THESE ARE THE ANCHORS TO AN EVOLVING OMEGA
RIDGE/BLOCK OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS WEEK. A STORM TRACK REMAINS
ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA, BUT THIS IS A BIT TOO FAR NORTH
TO SERIOUSLY BOTHER NORTHERN MI.
THE ABOVE RESULTS IN WHAT IS GENERALLY A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE 2ND HALF OF OCTOBER. HOWEVER, IN THE PROCESS OF
EJECTING OUR COLDER AIRMASS TODAY, WE'LL HAVE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
TO DO IT. A HANDFUL OF LAKE MI AND STRAITS AREA COASTAL LOCALES ARE
ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 40MPH. THE WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWERING/SHARPENING INVERSION WILL EVENTUALLY PLACE A LIMIT ON
VERTICAL MIXING (ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT). BUT DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING OVER LAND INCREASES TODAY. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL
BE COMMON TODAY IN THE STRAITS AREA AND BROADER MACKINAC CO. A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH (ADVISORY CRITERIA) ARE PROBABLE, BUT NOT QUITE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE, FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, THE STRONG SURFACE LOW CROSSING HUDSON BAY AND
CONTRIBUTING TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL QUICKLY EXIT
EAST. LOTS OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFTER THAT, AT LEAST
UNTIL A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. THAT'S REPLACED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND,
MAYBE. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE NO POPS IN IT, UNTIL SUNDAY OF NEXT
WEEKEND, WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE SLIPS INTO NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO.
THAT'S AN EXTRAORDINARILY QUIET FORECAST.
MAX TEMPS JUMP BACK ABOVE CLIMO TODAY, AND STAY THERE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AFTER TODAY (WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER), WE SETTLE
INTO A REGIME WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THRU THE WORK WEEK. A FEW
COOLER SPOTS IN THE EASTERN UP WILL BE AROUND 60F, AND A FEW WARMER
SPOTS IN NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE TAPERED SOME,
BUT WINDS ALOFT HAVE NOT. LLWS OUT OF THE SW IN PLACE AT 2KFT
THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY, ROUGHLY 40-45KTS. ANTICIPATION IS THAT
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY, GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AT TIMES BY LATE MORNING, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATING WINDS TO TAPER OFF
SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL USHER IN THE RETURN OF SOME MORE LLWS
OUT OF THE SW AT 2KFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD... 40-50KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...HAD
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