522  
FXUS63 KAPX 082312  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
612 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.  
 
- OCCASIONAL, MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.  
 
- MONITORING POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH  
MID-WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025  
 
FORECAST PATTERN... CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICT WIDESPREAD  
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER MOST OF  
NORTHERN MI. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH  
OF M-72. VISIBILITIES OF 0.5 TO 1 SM HAVE BEEN SEEN UNDER THE  
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW, HOWEVER THIS IS DUE TO SOLELY THE HEAVIER  
SNOWFALL AND NOT FROM BLOWING SNOW AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW  
LIGHT WINDS (BELOW 10 MPH). WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING SOME SNOW COVERED  
ROADS, HOWEVER AROUND 1 - 3 INCHES IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN OVER  
AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 SO FAR.  
 
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE AND "WARMER" AIR IS OVER THE TRIPLE POINT  
OF MN/IA/WI (WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF RADAR  
RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON). A SHORTWAVE'S AXIS IS ALSO OVER THIS AREA  
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN  
MI. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST, AND FOR AREAS  
SOUTH OF M-72 SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVIEST FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING  
HOURS AS THE BEST FORCING EVENTUALLY MAKES IT WAY OVER MI IN THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE  
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ACCUMULATING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL  
SLIP DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, TURNING  
SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MOVING COOLER 850MB  
TEMPS OVERHEAD. LES WILL MOVE OVER THE TYPICAL SNOWBELTS OF NW LOWER  
AND EASTERN UPPER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
FORECAST DETAILS... HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF  
SNOW FROM LES OVER NW LOWER AROUND A FEW INCHES OR LESS DUE VERY  
LITTLE BACKGROUND MOISTURE WITH THE AIRMASS MOVING IN TONIGHT.  
THE 18Z HRRR DOES HINT AT A LINE OF CONVERGENCE OVER LK MI NEAR  
FORMING NEAR MIDNIGHT AND MOVING INLAND - DROPPING AN ADDITIONAL 2  
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING TRAVERSE CITY.  
THE LARGER FETCH OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR  
A WELL DEFINED BAND TO ESTABLISH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND STREAM  
OVER EASTERN UPPER DURING THIS TIME. GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT SHOWS  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS FROM A FEW INCHES UP TO  
6+ INCHES NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WITH MOST OF IT FALLING SUNDAY  
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025  
 
THERE ARE A FEW POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKERS TO KEEP TABS ON OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE THING THAT SEEMS ASSURED IS THAT THE COLD AIR  
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  
MAINLY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HANG ON  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH MONDAY. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES  
OF ACCUMULATION NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND PARADISE WITH LESS THAN AN  
INCH AT SAULT STE MARIE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER. AN ARCTIC COLD  
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF  
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF  
ACCUMULATION. MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN  
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR SOUTH  
WHERE EXTENDED GUIDANCE TRACKS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENT MODEL  
TRENDS ARE FARTHER NORTH BUT THIS MAY NOT END UP BEING THE CASE AS  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DEEPLY ENTRENCHED  
INTO THE COLD AIR. SOMETHING TO MONITOR NONETHELESS. MORE CHANCES  
FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND BUT AGAIN THERE  
IS DOUBT OVER THE TRACK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A  
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 611 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025  
 
WIDESPREAD IFR PRODUCING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO  
EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
LIGHT, AGAIN NEGATING ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. EXPECTING MVFR  
TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME  
A TOUCH GUSTY ON SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ020>022-  
025>029-031>036-041-042.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...ELD  
LONG TERM...AJS  
AVIATION...MSB  
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