351
FXUS63 KAPX 041720
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
120 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY OUT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL DRIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN MOVING FROM WEST
TO EAST, WORKING NEAR AND EAST OF 75 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE ENERGY THAT WILL
ULTIMATELY INFLUENCE THE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE LATEST
SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE STAYS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED (NOT AS SHARP), WITH THE BEST QPF DOWNSTATE.
GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY (DURING THE DAY), IF ANY MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE ABLE TO ESTABLISH, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. BEST FORCING AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE THOUGH FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE SOUTH OF ROUGHLY M-72, ESP NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-55.
THIS IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HREF,
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR >0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE FAVORED AREAS.
GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC EVOLUTION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL THAN THE SEVERE THREAT, ALBEIT BOTH ARE PRETTY
SMALL. COULD BE WRONG ON THAT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED/AGITATED NATURE OF SOME OF THE PROGGED ENERGY LEADING TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY, BUT WE'LL SEE.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, SHORT WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN (ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE IN POSITION). THUS, A VERY BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MI (ESP SAGINAW BAY
AND VICINITY) BEFORE CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. MODEST SHEAR AND CAPES
~1000-1500 J/KG ARE WORTH WATCHING, ESPECIALLY NEAR SAGINAW BAY
WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED.
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S AND EVENTUALLY
LOWER 90S AT LEAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ENERGY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH THE UPPER AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST, WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. THUS, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES GIVEN THIS PATTERN. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MI, INCREASING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S AND TRAPPING SFC MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE
60S, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NEAR 70. THUS, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL MOVING FORWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
PREVAILING SW FLOW 5-12KTS BUT EXPECT LAKE BREEZES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AT TVC/MBL IN PARTICULAR. THINK WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP A
BIT OVERNIGHT WITH LAND BREEZES AT COASTAL SITES...BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SW BY MORNING...INCREASING TO 10-12KTS GUSTING 15-25KTS. SOME
LLWS AROUND 1500-2000FT POSSIBLE AGAIN, BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY
BELOW 30KTS TONIGHT AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS ATTM. VFR
CIGS/VISBYS TODAY...WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TOWARD 7KFT OR LOWER
AFTER 6-9Z AS RAIN/STORM CHANCES MOVE IN. BEST SHOT AT RAIN/STORMS
WILL BE AFTER 9Z FOR CIU/PLN/TVC AND CLOSER TO 12Z FOR APN/MBL. MVFR
LIKELY BY END OF TAF PERIOD, AND COULD GO IFR IF RAIN IS INTENSE
ENOUGH.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...FEF
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