309
FXUS63 KAPX 190742
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
..MAINLY DRY TODAY, SHOWERS RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: OVERNIGHT ANALYSIS REVEALS NORTHWESTERLY
CONFLUENT FLOW AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
MICHIGAN SITUATED ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
LONG-WAVE TROUGHING IN FAR EASTERN CANADA. MODEST UPPER JET AXIS
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD NW FLOW, YET ANOTHER VERY
WEAK/SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WAVE IS MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL
EVENTUALLY END UP PHASING WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT- WAVE ENERGY
SLATED TO DIVE OUT OUT OF ONTARIO AND DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THICKENING
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUATION OF
VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND OVER
THROUGH THE ALPENA AREA OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF MID LEVEL
RETURNS HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AS WELL. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRODUCT OF REMAINING
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION (REFERENCE OUR
00Z SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE), BENEATH WEAK ONGOING
BACKGROUND QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT. RADAR RETURNS ARE HIGH BASED -
AOA 6K FEET. AND WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR DOWN LOW, PRECIP HAS/IS
LIKELY MOSTLY VIRGA.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL. INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
TONIGHT.
TODAY: CONTINUED QUIET. AS MENTIONED, VERY WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH,
I STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IMPACTING
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/TIP OF THE MITT THIS MORNING. BUT
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND MINIMAL IMPACT, I DON'T PLAN ON
HAVING ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, MODEST LOW-
MID LEVEL WARMING/DECREASING 0-3KM LAPSE RATES WILL TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO I DON'T THINK WE WILL
SEE A REPEAT OF "HEATING OF THE DAY" DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LIKE
WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. JUST LARGELY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES FURTHER WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
TONIGHT: ONE MORE PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND ATTENDING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE (JUST NORTH OF MANITOBA THIS MORNING) WILL BE DROPPING
OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE DAKOTAS SHORT-WAVE THAT
WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP TO LOWER
MICHIGAN. BUT IN THE INTERIM, CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AND THE TIP
OF THE MITT DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND VERY MINOR (IF ANY) ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL, ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME SLICK
ROADWAYS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL REVOLVE AROUND OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TWO SEPARATE MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO
CONVERGE TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ONE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
ONTARIO AND ANOTHER EASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INITIALLY
NORTH OF THE BRIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANCES SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN AS SNOW DURING THE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH AND EVEN CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
SUPPOSE THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS,
PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT EARLY IN THE
DAY. GREATEST FORCING EXITS STAGE RIGHT BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING
JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. DESPITE A MID-
UPPER LEVEL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A ~1
KFT INVERSION THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
IMPACT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME EITHER, BUT SOME SLICK ROADS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK BELOW
FREEZING AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AREA WIDE...COOLEST NORTH, WARMEST NEAR THE M-
55 CORRIDOR AND NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.
QUIET THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO WRAP UP
THE WORK WEEK AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GRADUALLY DAMPENS AS IT SLIDES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
STRETCH OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
A WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW
AOB 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
QUIET WEATHER ON THE LAKES TODAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SW WINDS ANTICIPATED LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
JUNCTURE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BA
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