014
FXUS63 KAPX 221728
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
128 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND A COOL START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- PERHAPS A FEW LINGER SHOWERS SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO A WARM AND DRY
MEMORIAL DAY.
- TRENDS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CENTERED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION CENTERED
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. ELEVATED
MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING NORTHEAST WITHIN OVERHEAD RIDGING, PART OF
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THAT OVERHEAD RIDGING AND DUAL
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE LOCATED OVER MISSOURI WITH THE
OTHER ROTATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS
EVIDENT BY SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TANKING BELOW 30
PERCENT...HELPING KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DESPITE SOME ELEVATED RETURNS
ON REGIONAL RADARS. STILL A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL AS WE
APPROACH THE LAST WEEK OF MAY, WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE THEIR NORTHEAST JOURNEY,
WITH THAT MISSOURI WAVE EVENTUALLY CUTTING UP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
ON SATURDAY. NICE TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WITH THIS WAVE, WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF THIS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION SLATED TO CENTER OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST TO KICK OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RIDGING EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD HEADING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH GROWING EVIDENCE THIS BECOMES PART OF CENTRAL NOAM CENTERED
OMEGA BLOCK... SUGGESTING THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH MAY STAYED LOCKED IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
DEEPEST FORCING AND GREATEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LARGELY
CENTER BOTH EAST (TIED TO MISSOURI WAVE) AND WEST (DAKOTA WAVE) OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DPROG'S/DT'S OF NEARLY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS A SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO MAIN CHANNEL OF
DEEPEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THAT SOUTHERN WAVE...FOCUSING INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL EXPECTING SOME
DEFORMATION DRIVEN LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST...LIKELY TARGETING
OUR SOUTHEAST FOOTPRINT FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING WELL
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THOSE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY, COOLEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LAKE
HURON WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S. PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWER
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THAT NORTHERN WAVE SPREADS
OVERHEAD. AGAIN, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL GIVEN
DECAYING FORCING AND A COMPLETE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE WELL OFF TO
OUR EAST.
SURE LOOKS LIKE SUMMER MAKES AN ENTRANCE INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF NEXT WEEK AS THAT RIDGING/HEAT DOME EXPANDS NORTH...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 70S AND 80 MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
QUESTIONS DO ENTER THE PICTURE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH AT
LEAST SOME EVIDENCE FOR SLIGHT RETROGRESSION TO LONG-WAVE FEATURES...
ALLOWING NORTHEAST NOAM CENTERED TROUGHING (PART OF THAT OMEGA BLOCK
MENTIONED EARLIER) TO ESTABLISH MORE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. IF
THIS OCCURS WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN OUR FORECAST. PLENTY OF TIME TO
SEE HOW THIS ALL UNFOLDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
LAST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERSISTENTLY GUSTY EASTERLY WIND
THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS CALM QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING, BUT
WINDS ARE TO REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE. RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LLWS AT 2KFT (120 DEGREES AT 40 TO 45KTS)
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS IN. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND MIXED QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE REBOUNDING TO 20 TO 25KTS.
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE LACKING... SO ANTICIPATION
IS THAT WE RIDE THROUGH VFR CIGS HOLDING ABOVE 5KFT THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY WITH VCSH... THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING APN, WHICH, WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM, MAY SEE A DROP TO MVFR WITH
-SHRA PREVAILING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-024-030-036-042-088-096-097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...HAD
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