548
FXUS63 KAPX 142338
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
738 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BECOMING WINDY AND WET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES MID TO LATE
WEEK, HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
FAST MOVING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH
PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS A
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWARD PUSH OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD JAMES
BAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, FOCUSED MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH.
MOISTURE INCREASES QUICKLY TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. THE BEST FORCING, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE PUTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FROM UPPER
MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF WISCONSIN. FULL SATURATION ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOMES A QUESTION MARK AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
SOUTH, AS THEY SHOW A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR BELOW 850MB. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IN OUR AREA WILL LIKELY FALL OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE TIP OF THE MITT, WHERE TOTALS OF 0.50" TO 1.00" WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF, WITH SOME
AREAS ONLY SEEING 0.25" TO 0.50". TUESDAY WILL START WET, WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY, AS WE
PARTIALLY MIX DOWN 35KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH SOME
ISOLATED 40+ MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS.
FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
RIDE ALONG THAT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF US, WITH LESSER
SHOWER CHANCES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH COULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WORSENING CONDITIONS AS RAIN MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST RAIN
AT CIU/PLN, WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY, RAIN GRADUALLY
DEPARTS. IFR CIGS LINGER THRU MIDDAY AT CIU, AND FOR A FEW
HOURS AT PLN. MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING ELSEWHERE, BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT,
BECOMING SW TUE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ016-018-020-024-025-030-031-036-042-088-
095-096-098-099.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LHZ345.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ322.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JZ
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