538
FXUS63 KAPX 140415
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1215 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINY, WINDY, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
- MILDER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT
DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT. THUS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
COMMON THAN NOT, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED TO PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY, MAINLY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT BEING SAID, PROBABLY NOT GOING TO INJECT ANY
OFFICIALLY IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE, IF IT HAPPENS
AT ALL. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WELL, AS
WE REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE SIGNAL
FOR FOG TONIGHT EITHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF N MI ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
NON-ZERO SFC WINDS, BUT WE'LL SEE ABOUT THAT GOING FORWARD. ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL TODAY AND TONIGHT, WE CAN SNIFF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM(S) UPSTREAM.
BY THURSDAY, TWO DISTINCT FEATURES UPSTREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT
NORTHERN MI. THE FIRST FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THAT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME
ON THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER MORE ROBUST FEATURE WILL BE
DIVING OUT OF SASK CANADA DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY GETS ABSORBED
INTO THE MORE ROBUST FEATURE COMING OUT OF CANADA, WHICH WILL INJECT
SOME DECENT MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN (~1.0-1.4" PWATS). WITH
THE COMBINED LIFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THE SFC REFLECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST COUPLED WITH
THIS MOISTURE, A STEADY AND HEALTHY RAIN IS UPON NORTHERN MICHIGAN,
BENEFICIAL FOR AREAS WITHIN D1/D2 DROUGHT LIKE THE E UP. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50-1.0" OF RAIN GENERALLY, WITH
~40-70% CHANCE FOR 0.50" OF RAIN OR MORE ACROSS A CHUNK OF OUR AREA.
AS THE TWO PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MERGE/PHASE AND THE JET
STREAM ALOFT INTENSIFIES, THE SFC REFLECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT OFF TO
OUR EAST. THUS, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT H850 WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE.
LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, DUE TO THE WAY
THE ENERGIES PHASE AND LOCATION/TIMING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, BUT
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, 30 TO 40 MPH
CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE, POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. WE'LL SEE HOW THIS TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LARGELY RELINQUISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS FILL BACK IN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
TEMPERATURES TURN MILDER (60S AGAIN). BRIEF PIECE OF ENERGY WELL TO
THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA BEATS THE RIDGING DOWN TO SOME DEGREE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BE AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO A STOUT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THUS, AN INCREASE IN WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ONCE MORE, LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MI, AND THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO CHANGE INTO WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. PLACES THAT BUST
OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS (LIKE MBL EARLIER) ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME
FOG FORM. THAT SAID, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BECOMING MORE
COMMON THAN IFR, AND THAT TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS BY EVENING. LIGHT-ISH NW BREEZES CONTINUE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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