074
FXUS63 KAPX 140656
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
256 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019
..LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MAY YET SEE A FEW WATERSPOUTS EARLY
THIS MORNING ON SOME OF OUR NEARSHORE WATERS.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CLASSIC EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT SET-UP
CONTINUES AS MOISTURE RICH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
VERY FAVORABLE OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME (DELTA T'S STILL AROUND 20C
WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR -4C). FLOW HAS SLOWLY VEERED, BRINGING THE
MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SHOWERS INTO THE MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE BELTS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY. MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
ACROSS INLAND AND ELEVATED AREAS. HAVEN'T RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATION JUST YET, THOUGH IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
BRIEF MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CORE OF TROUGH PIVOTS
NORTHEAST, REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. COLDEST
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXIT ALONG WITH IT, WITH RAPID ONSET OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE, COMBINED WITH TANKING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THINNING MOISTURE PROFILES, SHOULD ENTICE A
STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING LINGERING LAKE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DETAILS: STILL A DECENT SET-UP FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY ON THIS MORNING WITH MAINTENANCE OF COLD THERMAL PROFILES AND
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS UP AND OVER 10KFT (HIGHEST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR). EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN FAVORED WEST FLOW AREAS. LAKE PARAMETERS BEGIN TO DECREASE
HEADING THROUGH THE MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
BEGINNING STAGES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS, RESULTING IN LESS ORGANIZED AND LESS INTENSE SHOWERS. WOULD
EVEN EXPECT SOME CLEARING SKIES, ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN, AS DIURNAL TRENDS HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. STILL CHILLY TODAY, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S (RUNNING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR). WHILE NOT QUITE AS BRISK AS THE LAST FEW DAYS,
STILL GUSTY WINDS WILL ADD A BIT MORE CHILL TO THOSE TEMPERATURES.
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS FLOW
BECOME SOUTHWEST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SIMPLE INERTIA OF LAKE PROCESSES
MAY RESULT IN A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY UP NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHERE COLDER PROFILES AND WEST
FLOW LINGERS LONGEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN DRY ALL AREAS HEADING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLDER INTERIOR AREAS,
TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019
..THUNDER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO WISCONSIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS BEGINS TO PUSH THE RAIN INTO THE NW LOWER
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS A BIT AFTER 12Z AND
THEN RAMP UP BY THE LATE MORNING AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS MOISTEN UP.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE N LOWER BY 00Z/WED
AND THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THE 500 MB WINDS ARE NEAR 50+ KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE ARE IN THE LFQ. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT,
AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL BEGIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES START TO FALL,
BUT DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL GET TO ANY CRITICAL LEVELS AS FAR AS P-
TYPE AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN -5C AND CLOSER TO 0C
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...THE WINDS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AN ISSUE WITH THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IN THE MODEST WARM SECTOR WITH THE LFQ
AND DIFLUENT AXIS OVER N LOWER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED THE
WINDS ARE 50+ KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF THE CONVECTION CAN
GET GOING, WE COULD GET SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE LINE GOING WITH
LITTLE THUNDER, BUT WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA. ONE
OF THOSE, WIND ADVISORY/SEVERE RAIN SHOWER ISSUES, POSSIBLY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE 500 MB TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM PUSHES EAST QUICKLY, AND THE
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LEAVING, BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RAIN
SHOULD BE GONE. THAT IS UNTIL SUNDAY, WHEN A SOUTHERN SYSTEM, COMING
OUT OF THE S PLAINS PUSHES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGS RAIN TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING.
SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE IS WELL NORTH OF SUPERIOR. COLD AIR
IN THE REGION HAS CONTRIBUTED LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS. COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME, AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES DOWNSTREAM AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS IN. LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER LONGEST AT PLN, INTO MONDAY MORNING. A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS WILL BECOME ALL VFR ON MONDAY.
CURRENT SW WINDS WILL VEER WEST, AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019
STILL SOME WEST FLOW GUSTINESS LINGERING TODAY WITH
MAINTENANCE OF UNSTABLE OVER-WATER CONDITIONS, RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS. WELL DESERVED BREAK IN THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, THE BREAK DOESN'T APPEAR TO LAST
LONG AS THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS TUESDAY, WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO NORTHWEST AND FURTHER
INCREASING IN SPEED LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PASSES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE
THREAT FOR EVEN A FEW GALE GUSTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ345>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321.
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MB
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