522
FXUS63 KAPX 082312
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
612 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
- OCCASIONAL, MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
- MONITORING POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH
MID-WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025
FORECAST PATTERN... CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN MI. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF M-72. VISIBILITIES OF 0.5 TO 1 SM HAVE BEEN SEEN UNDER THE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW, HOWEVER THIS IS DUE TO SOLELY THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AND NOT FROM BLOWING SNOW AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS (BELOW 10 MPH). WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING SOME SNOW COVERED
ROADS, HOWEVER AROUND 1 - 3 INCHES IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE FALLEN OVER
AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 SO FAR.
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE AND "WARMER" AIR IS OVER THE TRIPLE POINT
OF MN/IA/WI (WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF RADAR
RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON). A SHORTWAVE'S AXIS IS ALSO OVER THIS AREA
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
MI. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS ALL OF THIS MOVES EAST, AND FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72 SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVIEST FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE BEST FORCING EVENTUALLY MAKES IT WAY OVER MI IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ACCUMULATING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SLIP DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, TURNING
SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MOVING COOLER 850MB
TEMPS OVERHEAD. LES WILL MOVE OVER THE TYPICAL SNOWBELTS OF NW LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST DETAILS... HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW FROM LES OVER NW LOWER AROUND A FEW INCHES OR LESS DUE VERY
LITTLE BACKGROUND MOISTURE WITH THE AIRMASS MOVING IN TONIGHT.
THE 18Z HRRR DOES HINT AT A LINE OF CONVERGENCE OVER LK MI NEAR
FORMING NEAR MIDNIGHT AND MOVING INLAND - DROPPING AN ADDITIONAL 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING TRAVERSE CITY.
THE LARGER FETCH OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
A WELL DEFINED BAND TO ESTABLISH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND STREAM
OVER EASTERN UPPER DURING THIS TIME. GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT SHOWS
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS FROM A FEW INCHES UP TO
6+ INCHES NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WITH MOST OF IT FALLING SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025
THERE ARE A FEW POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKERS TO KEEP TABS ON OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE THING THAT SEEMS ASSURED IS THAT THE COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
MAINLY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HANG ON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH MONDAY. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND PARADISE WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH AT SAULT STE MARIE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION. MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR SOUTH
WHERE EXTENDED GUIDANCE TRACKS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENT MODEL
TRENDS ARE FARTHER NORTH BUT THIS MAY NOT END UP BEING THE CASE AS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DEEPLY ENTRENCHED
INTO THE COLD AIR. SOMETHING TO MONITOR NONETHELESS. MORE CHANCES
FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND BUT AGAIN THERE
IS DOUBT OVER THE TRACK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR PRODUCING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, AGAIN NEGATING ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. EXPECTING MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TOUCH GUSTY ON SUNDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ020>022-
025>029-031>036-041-042.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
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