385
FXUS63 KAPX 290310
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1110 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF
A DEEPENING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING PWATS, LIKELY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LAYED OUT ACROSS THE AREA,
RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WAY UP, WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEVELOPING STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING PWATS OF 200%
OF NORMAL TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW DRY (OR WET) IT WILL BE, AS SOME MODELS
INITIALLY TAKE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH/WEST OF OUR
AREA, AS THE CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE THICKNESS GRAIDENT. THE
CURRENT THINKING WILL HAVE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASING
NORTH/WEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE
DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH, SLIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP HAS
SOME CLASSIC SIGNATURES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LAYED OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, DEEP
MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS.
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, AN EXPANDING THERMAL RIDGE WILL BRING
SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS WE END AUGUST
AND HEAD INTO SEPTEMBER. THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGHS INTO THE 80S
ON SOME DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. AIR CONDITIONING
SEASON IS NOT OVER YET. THE MAIN WILDCARD TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
COULD SEE A SOME MIST/LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AT KMBL, WITH ANY FOG/MIST QUICKLY MIXING OUT TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START
OF THIS EVENING UNDER SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
HIGHER BASED CUMULUS. AGAIN, MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
FALL OUT OF THESE INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING THIS EVENING AS THE
OVERCAST LOWERS (STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS). LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
HEADING THROUGH TODAY. WINDS LOOK TO GO LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MSB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page