156
FXUS63 KAPX 152351
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH.
- LOTS OF DRY TIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, 994MB LOW PRESSURE
SITS NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF TREKKING
ACROSS NORTHERN MI. TRAILING COLD FRONT NOT FAR BEHIND, GENERALLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. INTO NORTHEAST WI. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY FLIPPING
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISHING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BY LATE EVENING,
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH COOLER AND NOTABLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO TURN STATIONARY OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HEAT DOME OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SHOULD LARGELY FOCUS ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY TREKS OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT
TIMES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN
THE RULE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BOTH EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SURGING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AREA-WIDE BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
AND MARKEDLY DIMINISH. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR AIDING TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH TONIGHT'S LOWS SPANNING THE
40S TO LOW 50S -- COLDEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN
U.P. AND NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER.
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD FOCUS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH LEAVING PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. THE ONE POSSIBLE BLEMISH ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AS QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS, BUT CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK TO FEATURE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF IMPACT IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS MID-LATE
WEEK RANGING FROM 65-75 DEGREES.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS, BUT
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RENEWED CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF
RAIN, POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AS ANOTHER POTENT WAVE AND
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE SET THEIR SIGHTS ON THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. CERTAINLY A TIMEFRAME WORTH MONITORING OVER THE COMING DAYS
FOR HOW AMPLIFIED THAT WAVE BECOMES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE SURGE IN
DEEP MOISTURE MAKES IT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES, PRECIP HAS DEPARTED NORTHERN MI, AND
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. SOME SHALLOW LATE-DAY CU/
STRATOCU HAS FORMED; THIS SHOULD WANE TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY WINDS CAN DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND WITH PARTIAL CLEARING,
SOME FOG IS LIKELY. HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AT ALL SITES BUT
TVC (MVFR). QUIETER AND VFR WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
W TO NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-
018-020-024-025-030-031-036-042-088-095-096-098-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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