694
FXUS63 KAPX 251737
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
137 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME TRUE SUMMER HEAT ON TUESDAY
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
- ONLY VERY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
STILL SOME BROAD TROUGHING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THIS DESPITE SOME NOTABLE HEIGHT RISES IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. EMBEDDED VERY WEAK WAVE AND ATTENDANT JUST AS WEAK
AND DISJOINTED MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADING OVERHEAD, KICKING OFF
SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE PROCESS. DEFINITELY A MUCH WARMER
DAY TO END THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AND
PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE HELPING TEMPERATURES SPIKE WELL UP INTO
THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY YET SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOP WITHIN THIS HEAT AND UNDER THE PASSING
WAVE THIS AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH LACK OF ANY CU FIELD AT THIS TIME SURE
ARGUES OTHERWISE).
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH STILL EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM AS WE HEAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. FULL GUIDANCE SUITE AGREES WITH TIS SCENARIO...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF EXTENSIVE AND STRONG CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
RIDGING BOOKENDED BY NORTHEAST NOAM AND WEST COAST CENTERED
TROUGHING...WITH THESE FEATURES REACHING MATURITY THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK. NORTHERN MICHIGAN LOOKS TO REMAIN CENTERED IN INTERFACE
BETWEEN THAT CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING AND DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH.
THIS SUPPORTS MOSTLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME COOLING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO TAKES ON A DECIDEDLY
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MAIN FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH SECONDARY FOCUS DIRECTED AT WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME
LOWER END SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES.
DETAILS:
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE THIS AFTERNOON (IF THEY DO) WILL END
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG
EXPERIENCED THIS PAST NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES
TO DRY SOME. ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RATHER WARM
TUESDAY, WITH TOP/DOWN THERMAL PROFILES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND
WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT MECHANICAL MIXING CONTRIBUTION (WEST WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES) ALL SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN, WITH A BIT COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE. SOME HINTS A WEAK SOUTHWARD SAGGING
SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO DRUM UP AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE THAT
DOES SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL APPEAR MUCH TOO MOIST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS (DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 60S???). WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A
DRY FORECAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF RIDGE/TROUGH
PLACEMENT SUPPORTS LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE
TEMPERATURES TO COOL SOME, WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE
60S AND 70S (COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. NOT SEEING MUCH
EVIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP
LAYER FLOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE COMING DIRECTLY OUT OF CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S. LARGE
SCALE FLOW REGIME SUPPORTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
POTENTIAL, THOUGH SUPPOSE A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
WEAK COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, ESP AT APN, CIU, AND
PERHAPS TVC; OTHERWISE, VFR PREVAILS THRU PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND
10KTS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS; LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT APN AND MAY
START SOONER THAN EXPECTED. S WINDS AROUND 5KTS WITH LLWS OVERNIGHT,
35-45KTS (STRONGEST AFTER 8-10Z). SUBTLE FRONT DROPS IN DURING THE
MORNING; NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS, BUT DO EXPECT SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THIS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ344-345.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...FEF
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