429
FXUS63 KAPX 080621
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
- TIMES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES HOOVERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS A LINE OF STORMS WHICH CROSSED OVER THE ST.
MARYS RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO CAN THIS MORNING. THIS LINE
HAS OUTRUN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND IT, WHICH IS REACHING THE
EASTERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING (JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT). THIS TRAILING WEAK BOUNDARY IS REACHING DOWN INTO LK MI,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER OVER
NORTHERN MI, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THUS CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
CAPABLE OF STRONGER STORMS, WITH THE LARGEST THREAT BEING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER. NE LOWER WILL BE WHERE THESE CHANCES HANG ON
UNTIL MIDDAY, WITH NW LOWER AND EASTER UPPER SEEING MOST CHANCES
EXIT BY THEN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD, DOWN THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (ESPECAILLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS).
STARTING TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. THIS WILL DELINEATE A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE OVER IA/MN/WI. WITH BROAD QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, LEE SIDE LOWS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL GET A CHANCE
TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON (SUNDAY AND MONDAY). MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING AND PROGRESSING THESE SURFACE
LOWS, WHICH POINTS TO A SCENARIO WHERE THE GULF MOISTURE TAP IS
POINTED TOWARDS MI (UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY) FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE
SOMEWHERE OVER MN/IA/WI/MI (DRAPED WEST TO EAST) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTH OF THIS, SUNDAY THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL CAN FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE U.P. AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY. THE COOL FRONT BOUNDARY AND THE STAGNANT
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEET (LIKELY OVER WI/MI) SUNDAY AND
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. INTIAL
LOOK AT AFTERNOON RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE/SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES, WITH STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SFC-3KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 25 TO 30KTS AND UP TO 1000J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THREATS LOW.. WITH A LIKELY FATE OF PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION FOR MOST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS, THE WARM FRONT COULD SURGE
NORTHWARD AND REACH M-72. THIS WOULD BRING A MUCH MORE IDEAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OVER AREAS
JUST ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO KNOW IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE, AND HISTORY POINTS TO MOST OF THE CONVECTION FORMING
EARLIER OVER SOUTHERN WI/MI. THIS WOULD CHOKE OFF MOISTURE TO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE L.P., KEEPING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH.
NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE DOES EXIST FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MI. STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. TRAINING
OF STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLOODING OVER LOW
LYING AREAS (STEERING WINDS LIKELY PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY).
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER
OVER MN/WI/IL/MI. MIDWEEK, A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES FROM CAN WILL
ATTEMPT TO PUSH COOLER CAN AIR OVER LK SUPERIOR AND INTO MI. THIS
COULD TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BREIFLY MOVE THE
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.. KEEPING NORTHERN MI DRY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SIGNALS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A LARGER
UPPER TROUGH SEEPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND,
WHICH COULD COOLER TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
LOTS OF POTENTIAL FOR THAT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SITES BEST POISED TO EVEN SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
CIU, FOLLOWED BY A DECREASINGLY LIKELY CHANCE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN (APN LIKELY DRY). FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUD RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK
(PERHAPS DIPPING INTO MVFR, PARTICULARLY CIU AND PLN)... BUT
CIGS TO RISE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, LARGELY CLEARING
OUT BY EVENING. WINDS TURN NW BY DAYBREAK, PERHAPS GUSTING TO
15KTS+ AT TIMES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...HAD
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