509
FXUS63 KAPX 231108
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN MI. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY
- MILD FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
AN AMPLIFIED -PNA UPPER PATTERNS EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH IS RESULTING IN MILD FALL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN MI.
CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. THE 00Z RAOB
SHOWS AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING PROFILE, WITH SURFACE CHARTS
INDICATING THAT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN TO
THE EAST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT EAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION ARE DRIFTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO THE
WEST, CONTINUING THE SPREAD INLAND AND COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN MI.
WITH THE TRENDS OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
AROUND TO SLOW THE LIFTING AND CLEARING OF IT AFTER THE SUN
RISES. EVENTUALLY, SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LATE MORNING SUNSHINE
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTERED FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT - WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BY NOON FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG RIGHT ALONG AND/OR JUST OFF
SHORE OF THE COAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER OVERALL
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE BY NOON. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S FOR NW LOWER, AND LOW
60S FOR NE LOWER, WITH HIGH 50S FOR EASTERN UPPER. NE LOWER
COULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, SIMILAR CONDITIONS (IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, LIGHT WINDS,
AND THE WARM LAKES/RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT) WILL LED TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS. A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NW LOWER SHOULD KEEP
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONFINED TO NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER.
SATURDAY, THE PERSISTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (AND MI)
WILL TRACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP AND OVER IT, INTO CAN. MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AT TIMES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED
MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY SUNDAY, BRINING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WHICH ARE FAVORED IN THE U.P. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SEEP INTO THE AREA MONDAY, COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER MOST OF NORTHERN MI. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
RACES TOWARDS MI (ON TOP OF A BEATEN DOWN UPPER HIGH). ENSEMBLES
SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO OVERALL LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OUT EARLY
WEEK THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO WIDESPREAD FG AND
LOW STRATUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z, THEN
BOUNCE AROUND AS THE FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER.
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CIGS AND VIS BY 16Z
WITH KCIU AS THE EXCEPTION SEEING MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH 07Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (AOB 10KTS) AND FROM THE S/SE. CHANCES FOR
FG/BR IMPACTS RETURN AFTER 03Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR KTVC/KMBL ON THE RETURN OF IMPACTFUL CIGS AND
VIS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086-087-095-096-098-099.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...ELD
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