240
FXUS63 KAPX 201038
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TIMES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
- QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
CURRENTLY, RADAR DEPICTS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ORIENTATED IN A NW/SE
BAND MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE L.P. SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS BEING SEEN FROM THESE, AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS SOME PVA OVER CENTRAL MI
TO AID IN CONTINUING THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE ULTIMATE
CULPRIT OF THE PVA, AN UPPER SHORT WAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO THE SE
AND REINFORCE COOLER AIR OVERHEAD FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING (LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWER/STRATIFORM RAIN ACTIVITY IN SOME SPOTS), INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE TO 500+ J/KG BY MID DAY. WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
THE CONTINUAL COOLING ALOFT, AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 COULD
SEE UP TO +1000 J/KG. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK BELOW 6KM. STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND AN INCH PWATS WILL RESULT IN PULSE
TYPE SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY
(ESPECAILLY OVER NE LOWER). STRONGER STORMS WILL NEED TO TAP
INTO THE SHEAR AT 20 KFT AND ABOVE TO CONTINUE GROWING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND RISING MIXING HEIGHTS, THERE IS
GOOD CHANCES FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO ESTABLISH AND HELP CONTRIBUTE
LIFT TO THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LIFTING AID, HOWEVER SEVERE
THREATS REMAINING MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS WHICH WOULD SUSTAIN STORM GROWTH. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. LOW CHANCES REMAIN FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS AS
FREEZING LEVELS OF 8 KFT, LOW SHEAR, AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STUNT STORM GROWTH.
THE ONE POSSIBLE THREAT TODAY COULD BE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE LK HURON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY NNW
STORM MOTION AND LIGHT WINDS COULD FAVOR SUCH A SCENARIO, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN TOTALING AS MUCH AS AN
INCH OR MORE. IF THIS OCCURS, LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW SPOTS
AND HILLY TERRAIN COULD BE SEEN.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING, A SHALLOW PNA
PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND BROAD TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
EASTERN COAST. THE RIDGING OVER THE US WEST IS BEING DAMPENED BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGING, KEEPING IT CONFINED TO THE SW US STARTING
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD/ZONAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS (BEGINNING SUNDAY). WITH A LARGE AREA OF
GENERALLY LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS, A FEW DISTINCT CLOSED LOWS WILL BE
DANCING AROUND EACH OTHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO
THE PERSISTING NORTH (TIMES OF NE AND NW) FLOW AND COOLER AIR OVER
NORTHERN MI THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. DRIER CONTINENTAL CAN AIR
WILL SEEP IN NEAR THE SURFACE SUNDAY, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. STARTING MIDWEEK, UPPER RIDGING STARTS
TO BUILD INTO WESTERN CAN, WHICH WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT THE
CLOSED LOWS TO THE EAST. A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY MOVE OVER NORTHERN MI SOMETIME WED/THURS, HOWEVER THIS
PATTERN DOES NOT ALLOW FOR DEEP GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE
LINGERING CONTINENTAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN THE AMOUNT
AVAILABLE TO PRECIPITATE. NOT EXPECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MID
WEEK, HOWEVER A STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE LARGE AREA OF
LOWER UPPER HEIGHT'S GETS COMPRESSED INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH, AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO TRY AND EXIT EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ON ITS HEELS. THIS COULD BE A HINT THAT WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH, HOWEVER IT IS STILL EARLY. FOR
WHAT ITS WORTH, THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK DOES SHOW THIS SIGNAL WITH
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JUNE AND INTO
EARLY JULY. CHANCES LEANING TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HINT AT THE
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI
THIS MORNING. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS AT MBL THIS
MORNING. AS THE DAY PROCEEDS, SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN N CENTRAL AND NE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF APN, AND
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE INLAND OF MBL/TVC/PLN. SO MAINLY VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ
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