026
FXUS63 KAPX 072245
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS TUESDAY.
-HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BUILDS MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH CONTINUED
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
500MB LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT QUIET AND OVERALL DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AN
EMBEDDED WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
TO THE NORTHWOODS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING SOME ADDED RELIEF
TO THE RECENT LACK OF RAIN.
BIGGEST FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY AIR INFLUENCE. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
UPSTREAM TROUGHING RETURNS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TONIGHT AND MONDAY:SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THIS MONDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, LEADING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEK AND LIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM'S
WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISHEVELED SET-UP, DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL RATHER THAN AN
ORGANIZED LINE. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF REMAIN BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.50", BUT MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE MORE OR LESS THAN
THIS NUMBER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PROFILES THAT SUPPORT
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OF AN INCH OR MORE (PWATS AT OR ABOVE DAILY
CLIMO MAX). SEVERE THREAT REMAINS PRETTY MINIMAL AS THE MAJORITY OF
SHEAR REMAINS UPSTREAM ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM
PLACES THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ITS WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTLOOK: UPSTREAM TROUGHING BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DRIVEN SHOWERS. SOME STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS BE POSSIBLE AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SHEAR
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS AT TIMES, VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JK
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