452
FXUS63 KAPX 120344
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1144 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT??
- INCREASING HEAT TO START THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY VERY HOT TUESDAY.
- INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN STARTING TO AMPLIFY
AS A BURGEONING RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S...WHILE -PNA TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST.
BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM HAS BACKED UPPER LEVEL WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SUPPRESSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH.
SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER/MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY
RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. POCKET OF DRIER AIR SITTING OVER THE
UPPER LAKES...THOUGH 1.50+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOT FAR
AWAY ACROSS MISSOURI/ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO. NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO ONTARIO. STATIONARY FRONT RUNS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 594+DAM 500MB
HEIGHTS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MICHIGAN MONDAY (+2 TO +3 SIGMA
500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY)...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE ~600DAM AT THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO START GETTING
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE
FOR MID JULY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER QUEBEC (-3 SIGMA HEIGHT
ANOMALY). THIS WILL EDGE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
MICHIGAN...AND SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE EARLY WEEK HEAT. UPPER
LAKES WILL PROBABLY SETTLE IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA RIDGING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS WEEK AS FAR AS HOT WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES (AND
RESULTANT PRECIP CHANCES) WILL BE WHERE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR
SETS UP. SOME BAROCLINICITY CREEPS IN FROM THE NORTH AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW MOVING/STATIONARY BOUNDARY POSSIBLY DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MIDWEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER IN SOME FOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A
CONSEQUENCE OF BEING STUCK BETWEEN TWO AIR MASSES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT??: ANTICIPATE THAT
THERE WILL BE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY
MORNING WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH A
PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER PRIOR TO SUNRISE...NOT SURE IF THERE WON'T BE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT. TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MLCAPE OF 1500+ J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY...PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND ANY
SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE ENOUGH FOR CHANCY POPS NORTH OF
THE BRIDGE. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
LOWER BY EARLY EVENING...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY HERE SO NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...
WITH PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN UPPER. NORTH TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
SHOULD PUSH SOME OF THIS INTO FAR NORTHERN LOWER AS WELL.
INCREASING HEAT TO START THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY VERY HOT TUESDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
CONTINUING TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S. MONDAY MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS THAT STARTS WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER (OR EVEN SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS)...BUT MORE AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD GET
TEMPERATURES GOING QUICKLY SO REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE WARMING INTO THE 90 TO 95F RANGE.
BUT TUESDAY IS THE MOST INTRIGUING DAY...AS IT PROBABLY HAS A
LEGIT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER BREAKING 100F
WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS (COULD BE A HOT/BREEZY
AFTERNOON). AT THE SAME TIME DEW POINTS MAY BE SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWER THAN OUR LAST WARM WEATHER SPELL A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO.
THIS BY ITSELF COULD KEEP THIS AS "JUST" A POTENTIAL HEAT
ADVISORY EVENT DESPITE WARMER TEMPERATURES (CURRENT MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ARE THE SAME AS THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES). BUT A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF CU
DEVELOPMENT WOULD HELP CREATE A DEEPER MIXED LAYER ESPECIALLY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +24C VICINITY. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT TUESDAY WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER
THUS FAR. STILL A CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 90-95F RANGE WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO...THEN A BIT COOLER STILL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY (THOUGH PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER).
FORECAST VERSUS RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS:
KANJ: MON 90/92 (2006)...TUE 89/92 (1983)
KGLR: MON 91/92 (1995)...TUE 93/96 (1955)
KHTL: MON 93/107 (1936)...TUE 95/101 (1936)
KTVC: MON 89/100 (1936)...TUE 96/98 (1995)
KAPN: MON 93/106 (1936)...TUE 98/102 (1983)
KPLN: MON 87/94 (2005)...TUE 92/93 (1977)
A FEW RECORDS IN THE LOWER-MID 90S THAT COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...AND A
FEW DUST BOWL ERA RECORDS THAT ARE GOING TO BE TOUGHER TO CRACK IN
THE "MODERN FORESTED" NORTHERN MICHIGAN (FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM).
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK:
WOULD LIKE TO THINK THAT AS THE HEAT BREAKS THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING ABOUT WEDNESDAY OR SO. BUT
THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN APPETITE FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL AROUND FRIDAY. SO IF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS IT COULD BE TOWARD A HIGHER RAIN THREAT
STARTING MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT FG/BR TONIGHT,
BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS THAT FG/BR DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR AT
TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH GUST TO AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...DJC
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