123
FXUS63 KAPX 220016
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
716 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIKELY LIGHT SNOWFALL MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT, WITH SOME MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
PATCHY LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN FACT, SOME AREAS (ESPECIALLY CAD/HTL/STANDISH IN OUR
SOUTH) ARE ENJOYING SOME MID-AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ON THIS SHORTEST DAY
OF THE YEAR. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS M-68 THIS
EVENING.
HOWEVER, VERY LATE TONIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SW. INCREASINGLY DEEP SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE MOIST,
ALLOWING CLOUD BANDS TO DEVELOP INTO WESTERN LOWER MI. ACTUAL PRECIP
SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTER 7AM/12Z, AND IN FACT HAVE TENDED SLOW ONSET
OF SNOW. BUT SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW GET GOING BY MID
MORNING MONDAY, AND LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE REST OF
NORTHERN LOWER MI (TOP-DOWN SATURATION). THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TO PUSH INTO EASTERN UPPER MI LOOKS MUCH LESS CERTAIN FOR NOW.
SOME WARMER COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE RAIN MIX IN AT TIMES, BUT IN THE
INTERIOR JUST SNOW IS FORECAST. ACCUMS OF UP TO 2" REMAIN LIKELY,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MI
(WHERE SLRS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WARMER COASTLINES).
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT 10 TO 20F. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
AS ADVERTISED, 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BROADLY RISING IN THE CONUS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE PAC NW
TONIGHT WILL CREST THIS BROAD RIDGE, AND EVENTUALLY SKIRT BY THE
NORTHERN LAKES LATE TUESDAY BEFORE AMPLIFYING/DIGGING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL TAMP DOWN OUR HEIGHTS FOR A BIT. LATE IN THE
WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BACKDOOR
SHALLOW COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE HOLIDAY PERIOD HAS BEEN
TRENDING LESS WARM IN OUR FORECASTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS;
THIS IS PARTIALLY WHY.
SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE BE WITH MONDAY NIGHT
(IN BROAD BUT NOT OVERLY STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION). THIS IS
MOSTLY SNOW TO START THE EVENING. THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT IN SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE NIGHT, WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES. MOISTURE EXTENDS UP TO 800MB/5K FT IN THE
HTL AREA PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. SO CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF M-68,
AND MAINLY PAST THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GRADUALLY EXITING
PRECIP SHIELD.
BY TUESDAY, MIXED RAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN UP,
EVEN AS PASSING LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH SWINGS US INTO COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING WILL QUIET THINGS DOWN FOR A BIT. IN FACT, BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND,
WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER TOP OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH INCREASES. THIS STARTS AS SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH, WITH
SNOW BECOMING MORE PREVALENT WITH TIME.
HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE MOST COMMON. HOWEVER, TUESDAY, CHRISTMAS,
AND FRIDAY COULD ALL SEE WARMER (MORE SOUTHERLY) LOCATIONS IN OUR
AREA PUSH 40F. AND SOME 20S FOR HIGH IN THE EASTERN UP FRIDAY
ONWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARDS VFR FOR MOST SITES AS -SN HAS
DIMINISHED AND EXITED. SOME MVFR CIGS LINGER, BUT ALL SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 05Z. SKIES WILL BREIFLY BECOME FEW/SCT AOA
5KFT, WITH BKN/OVC MOVING IN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AFTER 10Z, LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR BR/FZFG FOR A FEW SPOTS (KMBL/KTVC). CHANCES WERE
TOO LOW TO PUT IN TAF THO. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF -RASN. TIMES OF -RA OR -SN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A BREAK IN PRECIP WILL BE SEEN NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD, BEFORE MORE MOVES IN. WINDS AOB 10KTS TONIGHT WILL
BACK THROUGH 10Z. S/SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15KTS WITH G15KTS WILL BE
SEEN FOR NW LOWER SITES (KMBL/KTVC/KPLN).
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-
348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ELD
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