136
FXUS63 KAPX 191803
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
203 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO N MI THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS END THIS EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- STEADY WARMING TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WATCHING
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
COLD FRONT TO BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT CONSEQUENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL LARGELY END BY 7-8PM.
EXPECT A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SOME 30S AND 40S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MI. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AND A LITTLE BREEZY AT TIMES.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN,
NUDGING EASTWARD. EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 50 TO 60 DEGREES FOR MOST. HIGH
TEMPS A FULL 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR SOME. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, SETTLING JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST/NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS PROGGED TO DECOUPLE, MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
A GOOD CHANCE FOR EITHER A FRONT OR FREEZE EVENT. GIVEN THIS COULD
CAUSE DECENT IMPACTS TO VEGETATION AND CROPS, WENT WITH A FREEZE
WATCH FOR THE AREA. MIXED IN MAV GUIDANCE TO NUDGE LOW TEMPS COLDER.
NEXT TIME PERIOD OF RELATIVE MILD CONCERN WILL BE THE LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. LOW PRESSURE AND WARM ADVECTION LIFTS
NORTHWARD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON HOW SUBTLE ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY IS HANDLED WHICH WILL IMPACT LOW PRESSURE LOCATION.
COMBINING GEFS, EPS, AND GEPS TOGETHER YIELDS A HIGH CHANCE FOR
>0.1" OF RAIN AND A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR 0.5". THUS, COULD
BE A WETTING RAIN FOR SOME, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS
SHADED FARTHER DOWNSTATE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR DTX. STAY TUNED FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEANING THE WARMING TREND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE. LOOKS PRETTY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE
PATTERN HOLDS TRUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS TO START THE PERIOD, WITH
MVFR CIGS NEAR KCIU. S/SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS WITH FREQUENT
G15 TO 20KTS AS A FROPA APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -SHRA CHANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 20Z THRU 03Z (WHEN THE LAST
CHANCES EXIT KAPN). WINDS WILL VEER W THEN NE AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH 01/03Z. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS, AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...ELD
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