126
FXUS63 KAPX 111033
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
633 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD TODAY.
- SPRING-LIKE WARMTH SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES). WATCHING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE IA / MN REGION WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT, LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD AND CLEARING SKIES. THIS
PRECEDES A RETURN TO MUCH MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING SETS UP SHOP IN THE WEST, WHILE A ROBUST RIDGE MAKES ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, A PRONOUNCED THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DRIVE
ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAXIMA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THROUGH
THE HEART OF THE CORN BELT, AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS, OVERLAPPING PERIODS OF
INSTABILITY AS WELL. RESULT WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
FEATURING MILDER TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH THE COST BEING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE... AND
RAINFALL MAY EXACERBATE ONGOING HYDRO CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.
DETAILS:
OTHER THAN CHILLY WEATHER TONIGHT, NOT MUCH TO CHAT ABOUT FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND EVEN INTO TODAY / SATURDAY... LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE 20S FOR MOST, PERHAPS SOME TEENS IN THE INTERIOR BY DAYBREAK.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, ANTICIPATING SUNSHINE TO
PREVAIL AS HIGHS TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL... HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NORTH / LAKESHORES, 50S TO NEAR
60 ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER (WARMEST WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS
MINIMAL).
THE FIRST EPISODE OF ACTIVE WEATHER MANIFESTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FIRST PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE LAKES FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO COME ABOUT AS PRECEDING DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE TO BE RESATURATED IN ORDER TO DRIVE STRATIFORM
RAINFALLS, AS INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH / WEST INTO WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN COURTESY OF
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. AS SUCH, ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS TO
SEE PERIODS OF RAIN BUILDING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY IN THE SW PARTS OF THE
CWA). BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD...
1.00"+ PWATS, REPRESENTING A 250 TO 350 PERCENT ANOMALY FROM THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL, WHICH FOR MID APRIL IS PUSHING A 4 SIGMA
ANOMALY (VERY SIGNIFICANT). WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT IF A LOW LEVEL
JET INTRUSION CAN DEVELOP AGAIN AND ACTUALLY FORCE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, RAINFALL COULD
BE QUITE TORRENTIAL. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE 2.00"+ OF
RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING... BUT WHERE THAT HAPPENS REMAINS UP FOR
GRABS RIGHT NOW.
WE GET IN BETWEEN WAVES BY MONDAY, WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK, PERHAPS
SOME SHOWERS TO START THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE BARGES THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON SPC'S
RADAR, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINING INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (15% CHANCES ACROSS THE SW CWA).
THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL COME WITH YET ANOTHER STATISTICALLY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTRUSION (3 TO 3.5 SIGMA ANOMALY PWATS, VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1.00"), AND THUS WILL POSE THE RISK OF MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND WILL DELIVER MORE RAIN TO
THE REGION.
COUPLING THIS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES POKING INTO THE 50S-60S
(PERHAPS 70S AT TIMES SOUTH), ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
50S, AND WHERE THERE IS AN EXISTING SNOWPACK, WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY FOR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF INTO PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER AND
FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID
ERADICATION OF LINGERING SNOWPACK AND THE ONGOING SITUATION ACROSS
EMMET, CHEBOYGAN, AND PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE
CHEBOYGAN RIVER WATERSHED, HAVE ELECTED TO EXTEND THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH IN EASTERN UPPER TO INCLUDE THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED AND MOST
VULNERABLE COUNTIES IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR THRU THIS EVENING, WORSENING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER LOWER MI TODAY, PROVIDING QUIET WX. A MID-CLOUD DECK OVER
FAR NORTHERN MI WILL BRING CIGS NEAR 7K FT THIS MORNING FOR CIU
AND AT TIMES PLN. CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, AND
RAIN WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY, SE WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ016>018-086>088-095-096.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...JZ
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