309  
FXUS63 KAPX 190742  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
..MAINLY DRY TODAY, SHOWERS RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: OVERNIGHT ANALYSIS REVEALS NORTHWESTERLY  
CONFLUENT FLOW AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH  
MICHIGAN SITUATED ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING  
LONG-WAVE TROUGHING IN FAR EASTERN CANADA. MODEST UPPER JET AXIS  
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC  
COAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD NW FLOW, YET ANOTHER VERY  
WEAK/SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF DROPPING DOWN  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL  
WAVE IS MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL  
EVENTUALLY END UP PHASING WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT- WAVE ENERGY  
SLATED TO DIVE OUT OUT OF ONTARIO AND DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THICKENING  
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUATION OF  
VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND OVER  
THROUGH THE ALPENA AREA OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF MID LEVEL  
RETURNS HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER  
MICHIGAN AS WELL. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRODUCT OF REMAINING  
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION (REFERENCE OUR  
00Z SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE), BENEATH WEAK ONGOING  
BACKGROUND QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT. RADAR RETURNS ARE HIGH BASED -  
AOA 6K FEET. AND WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR DOWN LOW, PRECIP HAS/IS  
LIKELY MOSTLY VIRGA.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL. INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES  
TONIGHT.  
 
TODAY: CONTINUED QUIET. AS MENTIONED, VERY WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH  
WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH,  
I STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IMPACTING  
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/TIP OF THE MITT THIS MORNING. BUT  
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND MINIMAL IMPACT, I DON'T PLAN ON  
HAVING ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, MODEST LOW-  
MID LEVEL WARMING/DECREASING 0-3KM LAPSE RATES WILL TAKE SHAPE  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO I DON'T THINK WE WILL  
SEE A REPEAT OF "HEATING OF THE DAY" DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LIKE  
WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. JUST LARGELY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES  
AND TEMPERATURES FURTHER WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.  
 
TONIGHT: ONE MORE PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND ATTENDING SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE (JUST NORTH OF MANITOBA THIS MORNING) WILL BE DROPPING  
OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE DAKOTAS SHORT-WAVE THAT  
WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP TO LOWER  
MICHIGAN. BUT IN THE INTERIM, CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD  
SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AND THE TIP  
OF THE MITT DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY SOME LIGHT  
SNOW AND VERY MINOR (IF ANY) ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. BETTER  
PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL, ALTHOUGH COULD BE SOME SLICK  
ROADWAYS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE  
EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL REVOLVE AROUND OCCASIONAL  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TO  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH  
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TWO SEPARATE MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO  
CONVERGE TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ONE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH  
ONTARIO AND ANOTHER EASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS  
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INITIALLY  
NORTH OF THE BRIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE  
CHANCES SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO  
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN AS SNOW DURING THE EARLY  
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH AND EVEN CHANGING TO ALL RAIN  
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  
SUPPOSE THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS,  
PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT EARLY IN THE  
DAY. GREATEST FORCING EXITS STAGE RIGHT BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING  
JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. DESPITE A MID-  
UPPER LEVEL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT,  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A ~1  
KFT INVERSION THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY  
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY  
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ONCE  
AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH  
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF  
IMPACT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME EITHER, BUT SOME SLICK ROADS  
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK BELOW  
FREEZING AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AREA WIDE...COOLEST NORTH, WARMEST NEAR THE M-  
55 CORRIDOR AND NEAR SAGINAW BAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.  
 
QUIET THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO WRAP UP  
THE WORK WEEK AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GRADUALLY DAMPENS AS IT SLIDES  
OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH  
ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A  
STRETCH OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
A WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN  
OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL  
COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU  
THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW  
AOB 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
QUIET WEATHER ON THE LAKES TODAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT  
INCREASE IN SW WINDS ANTICIPATED LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THROUGH THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS  
JUNCTURE.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BA  
SHORT TERM...MG  
LONG TERM...MG  
AVIATION...MR  
MARINE...BA  
 
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