768
FXUS63 KAPX 271511
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1111 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
- COOLER AND A BIT WINDY ON TUESDAY, LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AT
TIMES TO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1109 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
ALL FOCUS INITIALLY DIRECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND ATTENDANT RATHER WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION WITHIN BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW...PART OF
REMARKABLY PERSISTENT INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS CENTERED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE/HEAT DOME AND NORTHEAST NOAM LONG WAVE TROUGHING
CONFIGURATION. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF CANADA ORIGINATED HIGH PRESSURE SET TO FOLLOW
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WHILE CURRENT NOAM UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME WILL WAX AND WANE AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND, OVERALL
CONFIGURATION WILL REMAIN...CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
NEARLY ALL FOCUS DIRECTED AT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO THIS EVENING.
SECONDARY EMPHASIS ON BEACH HAZARD CONCERNS TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURE/ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
DETAILS:
MATURE MCS TIED TO ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN WISCONSIN...SIMPLY FOLLOWING AXIS OF INTENSE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND PRE-EXISTING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT MOST ORGANIZED AND INTENSE STORMS
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. EXPECT THIS STORM CLUSTER TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. ANOTHER VERY IMPRESSIVE
COMPLEX NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON, LIKELY
PUTTING OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF LARGE HAIL
OVER THE BIG BODY OF WATER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY
WILL STAY OFFSHORE. DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PERCOLATE ACROSS OUR AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS PRIMARY UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT PASSES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AGAIN, BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TUESDAY, WITH MARGINALLY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN
LAKES LOW AND THE SOUTHEAST DIVING HIGH PRESSURE. THESE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT WAVE DEVELOPMENT, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST SOME OF OUR BEACHES OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME DECENTLY CHILLY EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHEN SOME OF OUR TRADITIONAL COLDER
INTERIOR AREAS COULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE 40S. AIRMASS MODIFICATION
WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL BY THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THURSDAY, WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE HELPING TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 80S. ADDITIONAL
PASSING WAVES MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS ONE CAN IMAGINE, UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH, WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS IN THE COMING
DAY. SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY RANGING FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING, MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT PRECISE TIMING AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
TAFS. THAT SAID, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BEST STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA COMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE,
PATCHY FG/BR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE FORMATION LIKELY
PUSHING INLAND FROM LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. DROPS TO MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS LATER TODAY AND MAY LINGER
INTO TONIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AFTER A COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ031.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...DJC
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