776
FXUS63 KAPX 102339
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WINDS, HAIL AND NON-ZERO TORNADO CHANCES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY, WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE HIGH 80S TO MID 90S.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
- COOLER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DRIFTING EAST OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, WITH GENERALLY SHALLOW TROFFING TO ITS SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. A WEAK SHORT WAVE/MCV IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
MEAN TROF ON THURSDAY (BY THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S), LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF WOBBLES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES
TRENDS MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE THURSDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE AND THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN THE CUTOFF DIPS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH MEAN TROFFING EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: INITIAL CONCERN FOCUSES ON THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT WITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE/MCV. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HAD
A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
WHICH GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD HEADING INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE HELD IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTING INSTABILITY DOWN FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. THE REMNANTS
OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM
WISCONSIN, THAT WAS NEVER SUPPOSED TO MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA,
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MID-MISSISPPI VALLEY
SHOULD STILL PUSH SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR ANY OF
THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES (AROUND 6 C/KM) AND MODEST SHEAR
PROFILES (BULK SHEAR GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 30 KTS). THE
SHOWER/STORM THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS LOOK BETTER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST ML CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
TRENDING LOWER AND MORE TO THE SOUTH IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL,
PER LATEST SPC DAY2 GUIDANCE, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5" AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A
WARM TO HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE THURSDAY
SYSTEM, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S). PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT APPEARS LIKELY
AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
LINE OF GUSTY SHRA AND TSRA TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD... LIKELY REACHING PLN
AFTER 00Z, AND CIU / APN AFTER 01Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE OF
STORMS, SOME LINGERING SHRA ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THOUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION, SOME GUSTIER WINDS MAY KICK OFF WITH WAKE LOW PROCESSES.
CIGS AND VSBY TO DROP AS BR AND FG RETURN. VFR TO RETURN INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ARE
SET TO APPROACH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEYOND THE CONCLUSION OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PBB
AVIATION...HAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page