897
FXUS63 KAPX 231050
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SEASONABLY NORMAL FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES
BUILT THIS WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
-CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES KEEP PATCHY FROST CONCERNS
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
THERE IS NOT MUCH ACTIVE WEATHER TO REPORT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
AS A MIDLEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A CLASSIC “HIGH OVER LOW”
BLOCKING SET UP WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB RIDGING WITH ITS AXIS OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO INFLUENCE THE
NORTHWOODS AND KEEP WEATHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND RAIN-FREE. H8
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WILL WARM ALONG
THE DRY ADIABATS THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID-60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
CONTINUED CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD
TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. LOCALIZED
AREAS AND TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA (INTERIOR AND
ELEVATED TERRAIN) WILL PRODUCE FROST AND POCKETS OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. CONFIDENCE OF FROST HEADLINES REMAINS LOW
AS FROST WILL LIKELY REMAIN PATCHY/ISOLATED.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES INTRODUCE SOME LOW END CHANCES OF RAINFALL AS
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. AGAIN, CHANCES REMAIN LOW
AS JET DYNAMICS DEPICT THIS WAVE LIFTING WHILE REMAINING VERY
MOISTURE STARVED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS IT
APPROACHES THE CWA, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAIN POTENTIAL
AS THIS IS THE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING
GIVE WAY TO A BIT OF DAYTIME BREEZINESS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ086-087-095-
096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
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