107
FXUS63 KAPX 291727
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1227 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TIMES OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR THE WESTERN
LEELANAU COAST DOWN TO MANISTEE TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITIES AND 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
- VERY COLD CONDITIONS SETTLE IN LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DROPPING BELOW 0 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COLDEST SPOTS COULD DIP DOWN TO
-20F
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER ONTARIO CAN
THIS MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN MI. GENERALLY
LIGHT, NORTH WINDS RESIDE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A HANDFUL
OF SITES ALONG THE COAST REPORTING GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER, WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW 0F. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE COOLER AIR
SETTLES IN THIS MORNING. WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
LOWER, WINDS SHOW AND AREAS OF LIGHT CONVERGENCE NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY, AND WITH THE OPEN WATERS OVER LK MI UPWIND, LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FALLING FROM LEELANAU COUNTY DOWN TO HOUGHTON LAKE.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z KAPX RAOB DEPICTS A VERY SHALLOW DGZ NEAR THE
SURFACE, WARMER TEMPERATURES RIGHT NEAR THE COAST ARE LIKELY
ALTERING THIS SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY LARGER FLAKES. WITH
THE COLD AIR TONIGHT, SNOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO FINE POWDER THE MORE
INLAND/EAST ONE DRIVES.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE SE TODAY, COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL BECOME REINFORCED AND PUSH WEST.. THIS WILL MOVE THE SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE COAST OF LEELANAU, BENZIE, AND MANISTEE COUNTIES
AROUND MID MORNING. AS SOME OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW COLD WE GET
THIS MORNING, IF INTERIOR TEMPERATURES DO REMAIN A LITTLE
"WARMER" THAN THOUGHT THAT COULD SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SNOW TO THESE COASTAL AREAS. IN ANY CASE, THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME DEPENDENT ON A LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY
TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICT THIS BOUNDARY RESIDING OFF THE
COAST, BUT SOME SHOW IT BEING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PARTS OF LEELANAU
AND BENZIE COUNTY TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A VERY LOCALIZED AREA,
HUGGING THE COASTLINE.. WITH TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW MEANDERING BACK
INLAND FROM TIME TO TIME. SINCE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE, THE SNOW CHARACTERISTICS WILL LIKELY BE VERY FINE (LIKE
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING).. MEANING EVEN LIGHT SNOW COULD RESULT
IN LOW VISIBILITIES. AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS, MOST PLACES WEST
OF I-75 AND NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY OR SOUTH WILL SEE AROUND 1
TO 2 INCHES. THE MANITOUS AND AREAS DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE, POSSIBLY +4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVER LAND, WITH COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLY
SEEING TIMES OF GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TODAY.
TONIGHT, LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TRULY ALLOW THE COLDER AIR
TO SETTLE IN. PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER WILL SEE A DECENT WINDOW OF
CLEARING AS WELL, SETTING THE STAGE NICELY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPERATURES TO TANK. COLDEST SPOTS COULD REACH -25F, WITH MOST
OF THE AREA SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING AT LEAST -15F TO -5F.
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW EXITS BUT BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS START
TO INCREASE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL HELP SPARK UP SOME LIGHT SNOW,
WITH THE HELP OF EXISTING MESOSCALE FEATURES LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE
FROM LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AN UPTICK IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
COULD ALSO BE SEEN FRIDAY OVER THE WATERS AS THIS FINAL PUSH OCCURS.
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR
MANISTEE/BENZIE/LEELANAU COUNTIES.
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND POTENTIALLY SOME COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES (NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT).
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE US WEST WILL NOT FULL BREAK DOWN IN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE, BUT WILL BE BEATEN DOWN BY A FEW UPPER SHORTWAVES.
AS A RESULT SURFACE CYCLONES BEGIN TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY,
ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN MILDER AIR TO NORTHERN MI. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE 20S SUNDAY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD SNOW, HOWEVER WINDS TURN SW QUICKLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW TO TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. TO SUMMARIZE THE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK; MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES HERE AND THERE. ICE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL, RESULTING IN LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
(ESPECIALLY IF THE LOWS TRACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE TIGHT
GRADIENTS/STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE AREA).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
SCATTERED LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. MORE OF THE SAME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE SHORELINES TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY (TVC, MBL, AND PERHAPS APN). WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 15 KNOTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...NSC
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