505
FXUS63 KAPX 230714
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY
- BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
- WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW BUT EXTENDS UP INTO THE PACNW
ATTM...AS BROAD UPPER LOW SWIRLS OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH LOBES
SWINGING THROUGH ALBERTA AND MT, TRIGGERING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
US-CANADIAN BORDER. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING TO BUILD A
SHARP RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MANITOBA AHEAD OF
THIS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO OOZE INTO THE UPPER AND MID MS
VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS DRAWING SOME BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA
(PWATS AROUND 1IN), WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADA AHEAD OF AFORMENTIONED SURFACE LOW.
BEST MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5-2 IN OR BETTER) STRETCHES ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST AND
UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AHEAD OF A SHARP TROUGH AXIS IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM, AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED NEAR AND ALONG THIS FRONT. WHAT REMAINS OF OUR PESKY UPPER
LOW IS NOW QUITE BROAD AND CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC, WITH AN
AXIS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH ONTARIO, WITH LARGELY NORTHERLY FLOW
ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING (PWAT ON THE 0Z/23 RAOB HERE WAS
0.48IN...ON THE LOW END OF CLIMO FOR MID-JUNE); THINGS REMAIN A BIT
COOL BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS AS WELL, WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C AT
COLDEST BENEATH BOTH CANADIAN UPPER LOWS...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WAS
PREVALENT.
SUBTLE BIT OF PV APPROACHES THE AREA THIS MORNING...SOME INFLUENCE
OF THE TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY, AND A BIT OF WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AS PV OVER SASKATCHEWAN
PINWHEELS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...DRAWING SOME HEIGHT FALLS BACK
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE
MILD CLOUD COVER TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER MI...THOUGH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY
ENTERS THE SCENE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE
UPPER LOW SWIRLS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION...LINGERING A WEAK BCZ ACROSS THE REGION AS FLOW BRIEFLY
TURNS ZONAL. SUBTLE RIDGING POSSIBLE FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
PERTURBATION CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONTINENT; THIS COULD DRIFT IN AND
BRING US SOME ACTIVITY LATER FRIDAY. EXPECT PATTERN TO BUCKLE THIS
WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACNW, DEVELOPING A NOTABLE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US...RESULTING IN RIDGING AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ATTM IN EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THROWING A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE HEAT IDEA, THOUGH WARMING TRENDS ARE
LIKELY OVERALL...AND WILL OTHERWISE EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, POTENTIALLY INTO OUR REGION AS WELL.
FORECAST DETAILS...
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY?... AROUND A HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE
POSSIBLE TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER SHOT AT DIURNAL HEATING, AND WHERE
SOME LAKE BREEZE ACTION COULD COME INTO PLAY (AND PERHAPS SOME
SUBTLE FORCING WITH TAIL END OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW). IF DIURNAL
HEATING IS AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH, NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
LOCALIZED AREA COULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO SNEAK PAST THE INVERSION
AROUND 650MB...THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE TO GET VERY WARM/MOIST WITH SOME
BETTER FORCING FOR ANY DEEP/ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO OCCUR. ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD PULSE UP AND DOWN REASONABLY QUICKLY, GIVEN WEAK
FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS; THIS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF
SHOWERS/CELLS BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALL THIS BEING SAID...DO WONDER
IF INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM PV WILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH TO
LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING A BIT AND PERHAPS LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... EXPECT INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS WI LATER TONIGHT, THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE A BIT FOR LOW-LEVELS TO MOISTEN GIVEN LESS FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
WIND DIRECTION AND ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS. STILL, WILL BE LOOKING
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY, NOTING WE MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL HEATING WEDNESDAY, THOUGH NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVELS...AND
COOLING MID-LEVELS AS THE PV MAX APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRY
SLOT ALOFT APPROACHING LATE WHICH COULD BOOST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AS WELL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THUNDER CHANCES
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE MID-
LEVELS COOL OFF. NOT A TON OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN, THOUGH THERE ARE
SIGNALS FOR 500MB WINDS TO INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH COULD INDICATE A BETTER SHOT AT
STORM ORGANIZATION IF EVERYTHING ALIGNS (NOT A CERTAINTY ATTM).
THERE IS A CHANCE AT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, NOTING
THAT PWATS SHOULD APPROACH 1.5IN AMID SOME WEAK STABILITY AND
SYNOPTIC FORCING...THOUGH MORE FOCUSED FORCING (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX,
FGEN, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC) COULD CERTAINLY HELP SQUEEZE A BIT MORE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR NOW...SIGNALS POINT TOWARD POTENTIAL FOR
THE HEAVIER RAIN TO SPLIT AROUND US AND/OR TRACK TO OUR SOUTH...BUT
NOT IMPOSSIBLE BETTER RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PV/TROUGHING IN THE
VICINITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH YOU
GO.
POTENTIALLY WARM BUT ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SIGNALS FOR AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US
STILL POINT TOWARDS A WARMING TREND OVERALL, NOTING SIGNALS FOR THE
590DM 500MB HEIGHT CONTOUR TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR 850MB TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE
TEENS C, IF NOT HIGHER. HOWEVER...THINK THAT WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE THAT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD
KEEP US CLOUDIER AND THUS, COOLER THAN WHAT WE COULD OTHERWISE
ACHIEVE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE, HOWEVER, WHICH WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY UNCOMFORTABLE
EITHER WAY...WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US/MIDWEST. SETUP ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK (PERHAPS VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT
THAT)...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS ATTM STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE PLACEMENT OF
PV MAXES (PROBABLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) IN THE FLOW. ATTM, THE
WARM/ACTIVE IDEA LOOKS TO CARRY INTO THE END OF THE MONTH AND START
OF JULY, WITH SIGNALS FOR THE PATTERN TO FLIP MORE TROUGHY ACROSS
THE WESTERN US/CANADA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
STILL EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND
SOME THIN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG/MIST TOWARD SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT KMBL.
IF FOG/MIST DO DEVELOP, IT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...MSB
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