253
FXUS63 KAPX 271751
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
151 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MI
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY, AND
PERHAPS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, PRIMARY FOCUS REVOLVES
AROUND INCOMING SHORTWAVE THAT'S CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
MN. AN ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS EVENING, AIDING TO CONTINUE TO DRAG A
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MI. AN UPTICK IN
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE MAY PROVE TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS WAVE DEPARTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MI DURING THE MORNING HOURS, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOWER
CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY AS ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TREKS BY TO OUR NORTH, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LOCALLY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES MAY PRESENT
THEMSELVES AT TIMES OVER THE HALLOWEEN WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: AT LEAST LOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING
OFF/ON AT TIMES INTO A CHUNK OF TONIGHT. THESE CHANCES GENERALLY
M-32 AND NORTH, AND REALLY MORE OF A NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING, AS
ANY MEANINGFUL QPF CHANCES ARE LOW. THESE CHANCES LARGELY DEPART
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY 09-12Z WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WARM UP FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE WITH A HANDFUL OF LOW
70S LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. THIS PLACES AT LEAST A FEW CLIMATE
SITES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS (ANJ,
PLN, GLR, HTL -- SEE TABLE BELOW FOR EXISTING RECORD HIGHS).
WHILE THURSDAY - SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
-- GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW-MID
60S SOUTH.
OCTOBER 28 HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
LOCATION | HIGH TEMP (YEAR)
ANJ | 64 F (1924)
PLN | 71 F (1955)
GLR | 70 F (1955)
APN | 75 F (1989)
HTL | 73 F (1989)
TVC | 80 F (1927)
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN MI. WHILE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO WANE A BIT, THEY STILL SHOULD BE PRETTY NUMEROUS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST
LOWER. PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.
OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO WANE FURTHER WITH EASTERN EXTENT
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANCES EXIT STAGE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY/HALLOWEEN DAY --
YIELDING QUIETER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME POPS DO RETURN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT THIS POINT. SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY, AND EVEN MORE SO AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE CURRENT ALTOSTRATUS FIELD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMBL,
KTVC, KAPN, AND KPLN, BUT CEILINGS AT KCIU WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE
TO MVFR THROUGH 0000Z TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SKC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346-
347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...SJC
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