420
FXUS63 KAPX 081134
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
634 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD MORNING GIVES WAY TO TEMPS IN THE 10S AND LOW 20S.
- SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH LARGELY QUIET WEATHER. IN RESPONSE, TEMPS MODERATE WITH
SOME AREAS RISING INTO THE LOWER 20S AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH
SUB ZERO READINGS FOR MANY. ANY FLURRIES THIS MORNING SCRAPPING
MANISTEE COUNTY AND VICINITY DUE TO A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND
PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE, AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE
OF STAYING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY CONSEQUENT OF A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING TO OUR EAST. FIRST HINT OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT, WITH A LEADING
PIECE OF ENERGY AND THE BEGINNINGS OF WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN CLIPPER ACROSS MANITOBA (BY MONDAY MORNING). THIS
LEAD, WEAKER, PIECE OF ENERGY WILL AT MOST SCRAPE FAR NORTHERN
EASTERN UPPER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THEREAFTER, THE MAIN
TROUGH AND ITS ADVECTIONS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN MI WITH
SOME WINTRY PRECIP.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL POS VORT ADV AND
WARM AIR ADV WILL PRODUCE A QUICK THUMP OF PRECIPITATION LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST FORCING WILL LIKELY
BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA, ALONG WITH THE BEST PROFILE FOR SNOW. WINTRY MIX CONTINUES
TO LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER AS WARM NOSE
ALOFT RESULTS IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL, WE'LL
JUST HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE BEST REGIONS FOR THE WINTRY MIX
THOUGH MOVING FORWARD. EXPECT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SOMEWHAT WET
SNOW FROM ~TIP OF THE MITT NORTHWARD, IN ADDITION TO LIGHT
ICING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, WHICH WILL CAUSE
DISRUPTIONS.
AFTER THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MID WEEK, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT TO FOLLOW TO SOME DEGREE, ESP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GENERAL DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S. GUIDANCE HINTS AT RISING HEIGHTS
THEREAFTER, PERHAPS INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE 30S ONCE MORE. ANY
APPRECIABLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER LOOKS LOW TO NONE LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
ASIDE FROM LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT MBL THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE ISSUANCE
PERIOD. MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT MAY SCATTER OUT AT
TIMES LATER TODAY. LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
APN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS
THAT APN REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC
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