993
FXUS63 KAPX 021014
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
614 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
- RAIN/STORM THREAT CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...FROM THE PACIFIC
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PV MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS...UPPER LOW SPINNING TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND FILLING AS IT DOES SO...WITH MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THIS AN SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS
STILL CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. WE CONTINUE TO TAP BOTH
PACIFIC MOISTURE, AND A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE, THOUGH RIGHT NOW, MOST
OF THE LATTER IS FOCUSED NEAR "EDOUARD" OVER SOUTHERN TX... BUT
STILL, PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1.5 IN IN THE REGION, WITH SWATH OF 2+IN
PWATS ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SW MI AND
SOME WEAKER STABILITY IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY NEAR NEB/SD/IA, WHERE
CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING AS OF 4Z. SW-LY NOCTURNAL LLJ IS NOSING
INTO THIS AREA AS WELL, FURTHER FAVORING THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
THERE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TRACKED ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY TOWARD
SOO CANADA THUS FAR, THOUGH, ALONG THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
(DEWPOINTS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BEHIND THIS...AS OPPOSED
TO THE 70S AHEAD OF IT, EVEN AT 4Z). EVENING CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE BREEZE IN NE LOWER STILL TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 4Z, TOO...AND AIRMASS HERE IN LOWER MI
REMAINS JUICY AND SOMEWHAT JUICED, INSTABILITY-WISE, THOUGH SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS RESULTING IN THE USUAL NEAR-SURFACE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION AND SOME CINH.
EXPECT UPSTREAM BAROCLINIC ZONE/CONVECTION TO BUCKLE NORTHEASTWARD,
WITH PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. ATTM, APPEARS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A COLD FRONT MAY DRAPE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH SCRAPES THE AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...THIS WILL LEAVE THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A COL REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FAVORABLE FOR AN AREA OF RENEWED MOISTURE
POOLING/FRONTOGENESIS...PARTICULARLY AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
CROSS THE PLAINS. WILL EXPECT A RETURN TO JUICY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSES NEAR AND NORTH OF A
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN MI. RIDGE AXIS APPEARS TO BUILD TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY...THOUGH WE MAY GET IN ON SOME
RIDGING BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL CANADA AND SCRAPES OFF THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE, THOUGH
CURRENTLY, SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS
PREVAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SHUNTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...AS TROUGHING OVER THE PACNW
BEGINS TO EJECT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IDEA WOULD SUPPORT WARM AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TROUGHING TO GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
US/WEST COAST BEYOND THIS.
FORECAST DETAILS...
RAIN/STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT... UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (NOTING A
NICE BOW ECHO OVER SOUTHERN MN AT 5Z) MAY TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER AND
TRACK INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING; THINK THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS IS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS
USUAL, THOUGH IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IT REMAINS FURTHER NORTH,
GIVEN A MORE OR LESS ZONAL THICKNESS GRADIENT INTO THE REGION, AND A
SW FLOW COMPONENT THAT MAY OFFSET CORIOLIS EFFECTS THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE VEER IT SOUTH. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE COULD/SHOULD END UP
IN THE STRATIFORM PORTION OF WHATEVER GLOBS OF CONVECTION TRACK
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION ATTM (6Z)
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS NORTH AND DEWPOINTS STILL SOLIDLY IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER (MOST OF LOWER MI AS A WHOLE, FOR THAT
MATTER), AND THIS COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING FURTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED, ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT REGION AND PERHAPS THE EUP....NOTING THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR
GRAVITY WAVES OUT THERE THIS MORNING, TOO, TO FURTHER THROW A
CONVECTIVE WRENCH INTO THINGS. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WOULD LIKELY BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-72.
THINK THIS AREA COULD ALSO BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS
THE SAGINAW BAY REGION EARLY IN THE DAY (PREDICATED ON NOT TOO MUCH
CLOUD COVER) TO RESULT IN SOME IMPROVED INSTABILITY THERE. THIS IS
LARGELY WHERE THE DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALPENA/OSSINEKE TO
FRANKFORT/ARCADIA), AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE IDEA. GUIDANCE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND
DESTABILIZES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THIS REGION -- AND
GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS COULD EASILY REMAIN IN THE 60S THERE THIS
AFTERNOON, THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE...THOUGH IF THE NORTHERN
BOUNDARY SLOWS UP AND WE DO DESTABILIZE, THIS COULD FOCUS STORM
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, TOO. WOULD NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT, AS THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND SPINNY
SHENANIGANS WITH ANY LAKE BREEZES OR LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,
PARTICULARLY AS CLOSE TO THE FRONT ITSELF AS WE MAY REMAIN TODAY.
ALL THIS BEING SAID...IT'S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
MORNING'S CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR
LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY UP HERE.
PRIMARY CONCERN REGARDLESS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY
IF ANYTHING REMAINS SLOWER TO MOVE AND/OR MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING IF THE UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO REMAIN CONGEALED, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SUB-
CLOUD DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING/ENHANCEMENT OF DOWNDRAFTS. HAIL COULD BE A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL, GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND STORMS COULD
REMAIN ORGANIZED AND/OR BECOME ORGANIZED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A TORNADO AS WELL, AS WE MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR ANY INTERACTIONS TO RESULT IN ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY TOWARD SAGINAW BAY IF WE ARE ABLE
TO GET OUR LAKE BREEZE GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTTOM LINE...DEFINITELY LOOKING AT HEAVY RAIN/STORM CONCERNS
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, ESP NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-72,
WITH WIND/RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREAT... AND THERE IS A PROBABLE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT, PREDICATED ON OUR AIRMASS
DESTABILIZING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS IDEA MORE LIKELY
TOWARD SAGINAW BAY; THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY COULD SUPPORT ALL
HAZARDS.
RAIN/STORMS THURSDAY-FRIDAY...THINK WE COULD HAVE A SHOT AT A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TONIGHT INTO MOST OF THURSDAY, THOUGH WILL BE WATCHING
FOR DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIP TO REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND THIS COULD LIFT INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
(ESP WEST OF I-75). THIS TIME AROUND, IT'S POSSIBLE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STORMS COULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST, GIVEN THAT THE WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO STAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY, RATHER THAN VEERING AS QUICKLY INTO THE REGION
AS THERE IS LESS OF A DISTINCT FEATURE ALOFT TO SHOVE IT EASTWARD
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STATUS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO TRY TO SNEAK BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH
COULD ALLOW DRIER/COOLER AIR TO OOZE BACK INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS GOING FORWARD, PARTICULARLY
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS IF WE GET ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TODAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
FOG WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS/
STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR FG/BR
DEVELOPMENT YET AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...NSC
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