973
FXUS63 KAPX 121042
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
642 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE
SNOWPACK MELTOFF MAY AGITATE ALREADY ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.
- RAIN AND THUNDER, HEAVY AT TIMES, TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING
THE REGION INTO THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, TRENDING BACK
BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS SETTLING INTO
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE FL/GA VICINITY, AND RESULTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW (SE TO S FLOW
OVER THE GULF) WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SURGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALONG AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THIS SETUP WILL CARRY NUMEROUS PACIFIC BORNE
SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FORCE THEM INTO
THE GREAT LAKES... BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUT AT THE COST OF A VERY WET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION.
DETAILS:
REST OF TONIGHT - TODAY / SUNDAY
00Z RAOB HINTED AT THE TRANSITION TO ACTIVE WEATHER DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES AT LAUNCH TIME... WELL MIXED DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING WARM AND MOIST INTRUSION ALOFT... AND THOSE
DISTANT CLOUDS TO THE WEST HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO FIGHT THROUGH, BUT POCKETS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE LED TO A FEW BLOSSOMING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE STRAITS AND SOUTH OF M-55. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES OVER WISCONSIN AND TO
THE SOUTH, WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE HAD LIKELY
LIMITING ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL TO A FEW RUMBLES, LARGELY FAVORING
WEST OF I-75 AND EASTERN UPPER. NONETHELESS, ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES, ANTICIPATING A PERIOD OF VERY EFFICIENT STRATIFORM
RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SWELL TO 1.00 - 1.25"
(REPRESENTING A 4 SIGMA ANOMALY TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM) EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY POKING
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW, POSSIBLE TO SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE THE RAINFALL WITH THE ONGOING EROSION OF OUR
SNOWPACK. CURRENT TRENDS KEEP RAINFALL OVER AN INCH TO A MORE
LOCALIZED EXTENT NORTH OF M-32 AND INTO EASTERN UPPER THRU THIS
EVENING... WHEREAS BETTER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LOOK TO PERMIT
RAINFALLS OF 1.00 - 2.50" ALONG / SOUTH OF M-32.
THIS EVENING - MONDAY MORNING:
CONCERNS ARE MOUNTING REGARDING THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET (LLJ) LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION... BUT WILL LIKELY
SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT IMPACT AREAS: ONE IN THE STRAITS AND ONE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF M-32. STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT DISTURBED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY
ONLY PERMIT OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF STRATIFORM RAIN. BUT IN THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT MORE ROBUST (WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING) FOR DIFFERING REASONS.
ANTICIPATING A ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO REALLY GET GOING THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN, AIDED BY VERY
STABLE MARINE LAYER AIRMASS BENEATH THE OVERRIDING WARM INTRUSION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
EVENING, AND SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) ARE HINTING AT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OFF GREEN BAY RIDING THE PREVAILING FLOW INTO
THE STRAITS (INCLUDING THE CHEBOYGAN RIVER BASIN). WORST CASE
SCENARIO FROM CAMS DEPICTS INSTABILITY OF 600 TO 1000 J/KG
PERMITTING REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS VERY SENSITIVE
REGION... WITH THE CEILING FOR RAINFALL BEING AN ADDITIONAL 1.00 -
2.50" OF RAIN (WHICH IS BELIEVABLE IF PWATS NEAR 1.00" CAN HOLD AS
GUIDANCE DEPICTS). OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME TIME TO SORT THIS OUT, BUT
THIS TREND NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
IN SUCH A SHORT TIME MAY BE EXTREMELY DETRIMENTAL TO THE ONGOING
SITUATION ACROSS THE CHEBOYGAN RIVER BASIN. CONVECTION IS FICKLE,
AND THE LOCATION(S) OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL / GREATEST IMPACTS ARE
CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION ALSO POSES SOME QUESTION. A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO CLEAR THE REGION LATER OVERNIGHT, LLJ
PROCESSES MAY DRIVE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT GENERALLY
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG / SOUTH OF A MANISTEE TO ALPENA LINE...
PERHAPS CONFINED TO M-55 AND SOUTH. THOSE FAVORABLE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS WILL BE OVERHEAD IN THIS CORRIDOR TOO... BUT THIS FEATURE
MAY BE A TOUCH MORE TRANSIENT... SO IN THIS CORRIDOR, ANTICIPATING A
CEILING OF AN ADDITIONAL 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
WE FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BETWEEN WAVES BY MONDAY... AND WITH SPRING-
LIKE WARMTH BUILDING... HIGHS IN THE YOOP 50 TO 55, AND 60 TO 70
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. PEEKS OF SUN LIKELY BUILD THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED... ANOTHER WAVE IS SET TO DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE WILL
BRING AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION... MORESO THAN THE
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION TODAY, AND WILL DRIVE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TOO. INITIAL ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT HAZARDS TO HAIL AND WIND. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WELL
THIS AIRMASS RECOVERS INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DICTATE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH, AND COLDER STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. ANY DAYTIME SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIE SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHICH... IF PATTERN RECOGNITION HAS ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT THIS...
SUGGESTS THE VERY SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA WOULD POSE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY... LIKELY MORESO THE
FARTHER DOWNSTATE ONE GOES IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT TO BE LOST IN ALL
OF THIS... WE WILL BE STARING DOWN POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS FEATURE... WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR THOSE WANTING A BREAK
FROM THIS PATTERN, THE NEWS IS BLEAK. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE SET TO CARRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CERTAINLY A WET START TO SPRING ACROSS
THE NORTHWOODS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WORSENING CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING AS RAIN CONTINUES. IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD. ALL SITES HAVE A
CHANCE FOR TSRA AT TIMES TODAY/TONIGHT, BUT THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE IS MBL/TVC. LOUSY FLYING WX CONTINUES THIS
EVENING, WITH PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
SE TO S WINDS INCREASE TODAY, BECOMING SW TONIGHT. LLWS TODAY
AND TONIGHT, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-086>088-
095-096.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
GALE WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...JZ
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