258
FXUS63 KAPX 201705
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT TIMES INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND, BUT MODERATING AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ~598 DM RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. SUB-550 DM LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH ATTENDANT TROUGHING DRAPED INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH
OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHERN MI CURRENTLY WITH
WEAK/SUBTLE MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD, BUT EYES SET ON UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO MAKE SOME
PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WHILE THIS INITIAL
WAVE SHOULD EXIT DOWNSTREAM ON FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL ENERGY AIDING TO
REINFORCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL LIKELY KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK A LESS AMPLIFIED, ALBEIT OCCASIONALLY STILL
ACTIVE, PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE THERE'S STILL A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF A ROGUE LAKE BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWER THROUGH SUNSET. AS WAS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE, FOCUS TURNS TO INCOMING UPSTREAM WAVE, WITH
CURRENT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MN AND FAR
NORTHWEST WI SET TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 12-24+
HOURS. INITIAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST TONIGHT, LIKELY STRUGGLING (AT LEAST INITIALLY) TO REACH
THE GROUND GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
FREQUENT SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. TONIGHT, CLOSER TO
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING, WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE.
THOSE BETTER CHANCES GRADUALLY PERCOLATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WHILE THE FORECAST WILL READ
AS AN OMINOUS ONE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXPECTING LOTS OF DRY TIME
TO PREVAIL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.
BY SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SWINGING ACROSS
NORTHERN MI, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE, WITH MOST NUMEROUS PRECIP
ACTIVITY FAVORED EAST OF I-75. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LARGELY IN
THE 70S. COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LIKELY TO BE SUNDAY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH LAGS. HIGHS SUNDAY LARGELY IN THE LOW-
MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AND INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE THE UPPER 60S. STILL A ROGUE
SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT WOULD EXPECT LOTS OF DRY
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DRIFT IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WHAT'LL
LIKELY BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT -- PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOCALIZED
UPPER 30S FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT?
MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CRUISE BACK TO NEAR 80
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. NEXT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
LATE TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLOW MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO APPROACH THE REGION.
CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUD BASES ABOVE
9,000FT FOR ALL SITES. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
MANIFEST AT CIU, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, PLN, LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SUPPOSE A VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE
IF A SHOWER PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES.
LIGHT W TO NW WINDS TODAY (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN EASTERLY
LAKE BREEZE AT APN LATER TODAY)... GOING CALM OVERNIGHT...
TURNING SSE TO SSW BY DAYBREAK AND BECOMING A TOUCH GUSTY LATER
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ347-
348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page