755  
FXUS63 KAPX 032322  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
722 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY; OTHERWISE,  
TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
- NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY  
NIGHT - SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOW SITS  
OVER QUEBEC WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING SITUATED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD. HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE PROCESS OF RISING LOCALLY IN  
RESPONSE TO RIDGING UPSTREAM. THAT RIDGE AXIS TO BECOME CENTERED  
OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO INCOMING SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR  
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. STRETCHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
EMANATING FROM THAT SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INCREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES  
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO  
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM  
THE NORTH. LOW CONFIDENCE HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER  
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING OCCASIONAL  
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.  
 
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT, PRIMARILY NEAR  
SAGINAW BAY. SOME HAZY/SMOKY SKIES AS WELL OWING TO CANADIAN  
WILDFIRES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH  
LIGHT/CALM WINDS. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST  
SPOTS AND THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
RIDGING ALLUDED TO ABOVE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY LOCALLY AS LAST  
NIGHT'S STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWNSTATE SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM  
FRONT. HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE (UPPER 80S MOST  
LIKELY IN DOWNSLOPING LOCALES ON THE HEELS OF INCREASING SOUTH-  
SOUTHWEST WINDS). LOW CHANCES DO EXIST FOR AN AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM -- PRIMARILY AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES  
IN NORTHERN LOWER. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE VERY LOW, IF ANYTHING AT  
ALL, BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE THE MENTION OF, ESPECIALLY GIVEN  
THE POSSIBILITY TO IMPACT (BRIEFLY) ANY HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
DAY 2-3 (FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY): A HOT/HUMID DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.  
50TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FEATURE HIGHS IN THE  
LOW-UPPER 90S WITH 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 100S ACROSS  
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. EVEN 10TH PERCENTILE IN THE LOW 90S FOR  
MOST AREAS. THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST (CLOSER TO THAT 50TH %)  
STILL HAS HIGHS WITHIN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OF RECORD AT A FEW OF  
NORTHERN MI CLIMATE SITES (GLR/TVC/PLN/APN). DEW POINTS IN THE 60S  
TO LOW 70S CERTAINLY GIVING AN OPPRESSIVE FEEL BY NORTHERN MI  
STANDARDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED 100 F AT TIMES.  
 
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TREKKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE  
COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION'S BEST SHOT AT MORE NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CRUDE LOOK AT  
SEVERE PARAMETERS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME SUGGESTS PERHAPS A LOW END  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. IF  
FRONTAL TIMING WINDS UP BEING LATER ON SUNDAY, SEVERE CHANCES WOULD  
CLIMB. WORTH NOTING SPC'S DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CLIPS PARTS OF  
MACKINAC/CHIPPEWA COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
DAY 4-5 (MONDAY - TUESDAY): PASSAGE OF THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM  
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO WEEKEND HEAT/HUMIDITY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
SETTLES IN TO START NEXT WEEK. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WIDENING TUESDAY  
AND BEYOND AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TREK ACROSS THE  
REGION. HOWEVER, WORTH NOTING THAT LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS  
GENERALLY FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL.  
 
DAY 6-7 (WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY): OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS  
APPEARS MORE LIKELY MID-LATE WEEK GIVEN A GENERALLY MORE ACTIVE  
PATTERN AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE POTENT/DEEPER WAVE(S) TO  
DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NATION'S MIDSECTION/GREAT  
LAKES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD UNDER SOME  
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND ELEVATED SMOKE TONIGHT AND SOME HIGHER  
BASED CUMULUS ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE  
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MJG  
LONG TERM...MJG  
AVIATION...MSB  
 
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