091  
FXUS63 KAPX 011801  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.  
 
- TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID FOR THE START OF THE 4TH OF JULY  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 
- NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATTER  
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CROSSED LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO EXIT  
STAGE RIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH  
TONIGHT. FOCUS TURNS TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS INCOMING  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TIED TO LOW PRESSURE  
NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR  
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE ON  
THURSDAY. BY WEEK'S END, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE BUILDING ACROSS  
THE NATION'S MIDSECTION BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO START  
THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
LOOK UNSETTLED AS ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE  
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  
 
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE LAKE  
MICHIGAN SHADOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. WHILE THE MENTION OF A  
ROGUE SHOWER WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST, THERE ARE SUB-15%  
PROBABILITIES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ALONG THE LAKE HURON LAKE  
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING THIS LAKE BREEZE TO  
PENETRATE INLAND ALL THAT FAR GIVEN 10-12 KTS SUSTAINED NORTHWEST  
WINDS, SO THESE HIGHLY UNLIKELY CHANCES REALLY LIMITED TO PARTS OF  
PRESQUE ISLE, ALPENA, ALCONA IOSCO, AND ARENAC COUNTIES.  
 
A QUIET START TO WEDNESDAY EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AFTER LOWS TONIGHT  
FALL INTO THE MID-50S (COOLEST SPOTS) TO MID-60S. FOCUS REALLY  
REVOLVES AROUND THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME AS A  
QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  
ATTENDANT MESSY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR  
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING COLD  
FRONT STRETCHED WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE UPPER MS  
VALLEY. INCREASED MOISTURE AND AMPLE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE  
WILL AID IN PRODUCING A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS: INITIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ANY  
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AXES AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAKING A RUN TOWARD  
NORTHERN MI AND GRADUALLY BETTER FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. WHILE NONE OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE A  
WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH, UPWARDS OF 750 J/KG MLCAPE AND DEEP LAYER  
BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORM. THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC'S DAY 2 SWO WITH A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
DAY 2-3 (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - JULY 4TH): WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT  
CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT BEFORE GENERALLY WASHING OUT OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING. BUBBLE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH LARGELY DRY  
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. JULY 4TH HOLIDAY  
LOOKS WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPS  
FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S WITH 90TH PERCENTILE PROBS  
IN THE LOW-UPPER 90S. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL,  
ALTHOUGH LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POPS FOR ISENTROPICALLY  
DRIVEN SHOWER/STORMS TO IMPACT FESTIVITIES AT SOME POINT DURING THE  
HOLIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST CONVECTIVE  
CHANCES AT THIS POINT. OF COURSE, TIMING OF THIS COULD PLAY INTO THE  
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT, AS WELL.  
 
DAY 4-5 (SATURDAY - SUNDAY): ANOTHER POTENTIALLY VERY HOT AND HUMID  
DAY ON SATURDAY, ALBEIT STILL CONVECTIVE DEPENDENT. ASSUMING LIMITED  
CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, 50TH % PROBS  
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE LOW-UPPER 90S WITH 90TH % A COUPLE OF TICKS  
HOTTER. EARLY LOOK AT HIGH TEMP RECORDS THIS DAY HAVE THE CURRENT  
FORECAST WITHIN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OF RECORD AT A FEW OF NORTHERN  
MI'S CLIMATE SITES (APN/PLN). ANOTHER WAVE SET TO APPROACH FROM THE  
NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO BRING MORE  
UNSETTLED WEATHER. WHILE THERE'S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AROUND TIMING  
OF BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT -  
SUNDAY FEATURING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. WORTH MONITORING THIS  
FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT TO ANY HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES CONTINUING INTO  
SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
DAY 6-7 (MONDAY - TUESDAY): LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE WEEKEND HEAT. SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER/STORM  
CHANCES NOT RULED OUT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOW PROBABILITIES  
DO EXIST FOR LOCALIZED BR/FG AT KMBL TONIGHT GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY  
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, PICKING BACK UP OUT  
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MJG  
LONG TERM...MJG  
AVIATION...MJG  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab MI Page
Main Text Page