700
FXUS63 KAPX 201141
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN, OR A WINTRY MIX, CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY, SOME
ACCUMULATION ACROSS E UP AND NE LOWER.
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PICTURESQUE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH
OF DULUTH, SLOWLY SPINNING AWAY BENEATH A STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS ENERGY RETROGRADES TO THE WNW,
WHILE THE NEXT BALL OF VORTICITY, CURRENTLY A BIT ELONGATED ACROSS
THE C PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY, MOVES NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI TO
THE THUMB. THIS PUTS A SFC LOW TRACK FROM MANISTEE TOWARDS
HARRISON, OR CLOSE TO THERE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. PLENTY OF
LIFT EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THESE
FEATURES, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, BUT MOSTLY RAIN AND SNOW TO SOME DEGREE WITHIN MARGINALLY
COLD LOW LEVELS.
SFC LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND AND WEAKENS. GENERAL TROUGHINESS
PASSING NEAR OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND RIDGING REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CREATE AND AREA OF
DEFORMATION. SFC TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MI NORTHWEST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OF LAKE EFFECT ORIGIN EXPECTED, PROBABLY AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY INTO MONDAYISH, AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, 850 MB HEIGHT DEPRESSION, AND THE MESS
OF ENERGY ALOFT FINALLY EVACUATING (PERHAPS AIDING IN AN EAST
COAST SPECIAL?) ALL THE WHILE, UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, BY THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK, SIGNIFICANT ENERGY MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL BEAT DOWN THE
RIDGE, WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
WINTRY WEATHER TODAY:
NOT THE EASIEST FORECAST IN THE WORLD IN REGARD TO ASSESSING THE
AMOUNT OF IMPACTS FOR THIS EVENT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST MILD
LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST TO
WEST, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE MID 30S FOR SFC TS. NOT ONLY THAT,
IT IS NOT LIKE THE LAPSE RATES ARE ALL THAT STEEP RIGHT ABOVE
THE SFC FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUS, ALTHOUGH THE
MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LIFTS INTO N MI FOR
RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, THROUGH THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON NORTHEAST
LOWER INTO THE STRAITS AS THE AREA WITH THE MOST RESIDENCE TIME
FOR THAT SNOW TRANSITION, IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, ANY MIXED PRECIP IN
REGARDS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
UP WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARDS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW.
THINKING MOST OF THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE WITHIN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE, WITH NORTHEAST LOWER, THE STRAITS, AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UPPER WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES.
GIVEN THE WARM SFC TEMPS, IT IS HARD TO DISCERN HOW MUCH WILL
STICK TO THE ROADWAYS AND INEVITABLE CAUSE IMPACT. KUCHERA AND
10:1 SNOW RATIOS ARE PRACTICALLY USELESS IN THIS SCENARIO, TEND
TO SIDE MORE WITH THE POS SNOW DEPTH CHANGE, WHICH LINES UP WITH
A 1 TO 3 INCH SCENARIO ON MOST GUIDANCE. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
LITTLE DISCREPANCY IN LOCATION ON ENHANCED SNOWFALL, GFS & NAM
ARE A LITTLE SOUTHEAST VS MOST GUIDANCE THAT ARE HUGGING THE
LAKE HURON COASTLINE FROM ~ALPENA UP TOWARDS CHEBOYGAN, AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE OVERALL.
THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING,
SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT. BUT WITH THE MARGINAL TEMPS AS IT IS,
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A HUGE CONCERN. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, FOCUSING FROM THE EASTERN UP DOWN INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER.
THE QUESTION TURNS TO WHETHER TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY DOWN A COUPLE
OF COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER. AS OF THIS TIME, THINKING OF NOT
DOING SO BASED ON HOW WARM IT MAY BE AND HOW MUCH MELTING MAY TAKE
PLACE PRIOR TO THE SNOW STICKING. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A
SCENARIO WHERE THE STRONG LIFT AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION COOL THE
TEMPS VERY RAPIDLY AND STICKING HAPPENS SOONER, AND THUS, A LITTLE
MORE SNOW FALLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. LEANING
WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE TOWARDS NOT EXPANDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS SCENARIO BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
REASONS, BUT REALLY THE MESSAGING WOULD STAY THE SAME, 1 TO 3
INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER NEAR THE LAKE
HURON COASTLINE FROM ALPENA TO CHEBOYGAN/TIP OF THE MITT AND
NORTHWARD.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND:
WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE, ENERGY ALOFT,
AND SFC TROUGH TONIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MI. GUIDANCE TRYING TO HONE IN ON BETTER AREAS OF SNOWFALL, ONE
BEING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY, BUT ALSO ANOTHER ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MI. THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DRIFT AROUND WITH TIME AND
THUS ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOME AREAS. LITTLE BIT
MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT LOOK ON SUNDAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF MONDAY,
BUT COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOWS FOR SOME THIS WEEKEND AND WORTH A
MORE IN DEPTH LOOK.
CLIPPER NEXT WEEK:
DECENT AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE ON A QUICK HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM MID
NEXT WEEK, ~ LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS,
BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD AS WELL WITH LOW PROBS (10-40%)
FOR 3 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MI.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
ENERGY ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. BUT AT LEAST
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY TURNING TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P. LATER TONIGHT AS
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE. GUSTY EAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD,
TURNING TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
EAST.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...DJC
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