127
FXUS63 KAPX 040712
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
212 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THURSDAY.
- REINFORCING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS (COLD/SNOW/WIND). HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE
LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN THE PROCESS OF EASING ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN
CONUS TO START THE PERIOD, WHILE A PESKY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE THAT
CAUSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
ON TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS LEAVES NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN THE DE
FACTO "NEUTRAL POINT" OF THE PATTERN... SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
CLOSER TO HOME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD.
RESULT WILL BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH NW FLOW DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD PUT A CAP ON SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH JUST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SW RETURN FLOW BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN PUTTING THE REGION IN A DELICATE POSITION TO SEE
DECOUPLING WINDS. NE LOWER LOCALES THAT SEE ANY SORT OF CLEARING MAY
SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING... BUT IT SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE CAPPED AS THE RETURN FLOW BUILDS AND WARM ADVECTION
MATERIALIZES WITHIN A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LEAD TO INCREASES
IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
DAYBREAK.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST OF I-75, SINGLE
DIGITS (PERHAPS ZERO IN THE COLDEST SPOTS) EAST OF I-75 IN NORTHERN
LOWER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
PATTERN SET TO TREND A BIT MORE ACTIVE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CARRYING INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE SET TO OCCUR IN RAPID SUCCESSION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
DRIVEN BY A STRONG JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA SOUTH AND EAST
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION WING SET TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION AS JET DYNAMICS SUPPORT ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS
SUCH, THIS INITIAL WAVE WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL THAT
MOVES IN FROM NW TO SE AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SOME OF THIS SNOW
MAY LINGER AROUND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT... BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
OWING TO TEMPS ALOFT WARMING JUST ABOVE THE DGZ. IN GENERAL, THIS
PARTICULAR EVENT LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
UPSTREAM, A POTENT WAVE EJECTS EAST, WITH THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
REMAINING FIRMLY IN CONTROL. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING AND
CLOSING OFF SHORTWAVE / SURFACE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD SURGE EASTWARD
INTO JAMES BAY. CLOSER TO HOME, WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPS LIKELY SPIKING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL FORCE
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WITH AMPLE LIFT IN
PLACE AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SURGING THROUGH THE REGION,
THIS WILL SUPPORT A BURST OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL
OVERLAP WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LOOKS
TO BARGE THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WINDS AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS SURGES INTO THE REGION. WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 40MPH, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PRETTY GNARLY COMMUTING
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS BLOWING SNOW AND
SNOWFALL LEADS TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND BLOWING / DRIFTING SNOW.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WHICH
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED IMPACTS ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TUMBLING TO NEAR / BELOW ZERO WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WELL,
WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL WAVES SUPPORTED BY CONTINUED FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK... BUT WITH THE ACTIVE PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE, WE MAY BE STARING DOWN PRECIPITATION
TYPE CONCERNS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
MORE OF THE SAME WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS TODAY. MAY SEE
SOME MORE WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE SOME. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
FLURRIES IMPACT KTVC AND KMBL TODAY, BUT WITH MINIMAL IF ANY
IMPACTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB
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