782
FXUS63 KAPX 161031
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND ICING HAS BEEN REALIZED SO FAR WITH
THE WELL-ADVERTIZED WINTER STORM.
- ICING THREAT ENDS THIS MORNING.
- HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 12"+ POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOCALIZED PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.P., ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK MAY EXACERBATE ICING IMPACTS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGHING DRAPED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING AS THE EMBEDDED JET PUNCHES UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. VERY
STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE ASSOCIATED SUB-990MB CYCLONE
AS IT TREKS ACROSS SAGINAW BAY AND OVER LAKE HURON LATER TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WORK OVERHEAD DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL WAVES, ALBEIT WEAK, LOOK TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND ICING HAVE BEEN REALIZED ACROSS VARYING
PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SO FAR AS THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CWA INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE WHAT OFFICIAL
REPORTS COME IN LATER THIS MORNING, BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.P.
AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY APPROACH/SURPASS 36" EVENT TOTAL
SNOWFALL -- WITH MORE STILL TO COME. FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE M-55
CORRIDOR, SIGNIFICANT ICING HAS OCCURRED WITH LIKELY CONSIDERABLE
IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE. LATEST OUTAGE MAPS SHOW A SWATH OF NEARLY
CONTINUOUS OUTAGES FROM WEXFORD COUNTY OVER TO THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE, INCLUDING OVER 80% OF ROSCOMMON AND ALCONA COUNTIES
WITHOUT POWER.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HEAVIEST ICING IS BEHIND US. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA OF UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST AREAS ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS ICE ACCUMULATION ON SURFACES AFTER WHAT HAS
UNFOLDED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO END LATER THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO
ALL SNOW.
WHILE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS ALSO LIKELY BEHIND US, ADDITIONAL HEAVY
SNOW IS STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA. ANOTHER 5-10" ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FAR NORTHWEST LOWER,
TIP OF THE MITT, AND EASTERN U.P. THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 12"+ POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. WILL EMPHASIZE THAT
THESE AMOUNTS ARE ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN, WHICH IS LIKELY
IN THE 24-36" RANGE ALREADY BASED ON EARLIER REPORTS AND PICTURES ON
SOCIAL MEDIA.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, A TRANSITION TO MORE LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME, LEADING TO THE RETURN OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS --
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WORST CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
NEAR LAKESHORE AREAS AND EXPOSED LOCATIONS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS CAN
EASILY BLOW/DRIFT FRESH SNOWFALL. THUS, SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEASONABLY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE IMPACTS ACROSS AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED
SIGNIFICANT ICING AS ICE-COATED SURFACES WILL STRUGGLE TO MELT FOR A
FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WIDESPREAD WINTRY IMPACTS EXPECTED AT ALL OF NORTHERN MI'S
TERMINALS TODAY WITH SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT.
LINGERING WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT SOME SITES
THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY.
PRIMARILY IFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SNOW.
SNOW TURNS MORE SNOW SHOWERY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BACK NORTHWESTERLY TODAY -- VERY GUSTY AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST LOWER MI TERMINALS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-017-
020-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ018-
021-022-026.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ023-024-
027>030-032>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ025-
031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ035.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ086>088-095>098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MJG
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