843
FXUS63 KAPX 211030
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISKS IN PLACE ACROSS MANY NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEACHES
TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WARMING BACK
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SEASONALLY IMPRESSIVE TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WILL PUNCH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY, PLACING US UNDERNEATH
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AND PERHAPS
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONG CYCLONE SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TODAY
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL TROUGHING PROGRESSING OVER THE REGION MAY
BRING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS POINT, LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AND ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AFTER TONIGHT'S STORMS TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, A SHORT BREAK IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF ~500-1,000 J/KG MLCAPE --
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TO BE CUT OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION MAY SUPPORT LIGHT
DRIZZLE/MIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, LEADING
TO HIGH SWIM RISKS BEING IN PLACE ACROSS MANY NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BEACHES DUE TO THE THREAT OF HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS.
LOOKING AHEAD, COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY POP UP AGAIN, PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO RETURN MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ016-
018-020-021-025-031-098-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MJG
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