487
FXUS63 KAPX 091728
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
128 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, ALONG WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE
TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
- INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WITH
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARMING TEMPS THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
OMNIPOTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND ONTARIO, WITH
INFLUENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEEP,
COAGULATED, ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGHING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION, SPINNING UP A SFC CYCLONE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. MODEST, BUT
NOT ANOMALOUS, MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN MI AHEAD OF THIS
SFC CYCLONE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY,
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF MOISTURE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRETTY POOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY ENHANCED RAINS, BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS, LOCAL
SMATTERINGS OF LIGHTER RAIN TOTALS, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
DRIER LOW LEVEL PROFILES (AND THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS). HOWEVER,
WITH SUB 1000 MB LOW TO OUR NORTH, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
WITH BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
(GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE). WIND SHIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WILL USHER IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHWEST, AND THUS CAPPING OUR DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S, HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MI.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN TODAY WITH LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE INCREASE IN WINDS.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND SWINGS ON THROUGH NORTHERN MI
ON SUNDAY, KEEPING THE COOL CONDITIONS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY LOCKED IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
SUBSEQUENT STEEP 0-3 KM LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AID IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MI UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF MACKINAC COUNTY.
NEXT SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS
PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OVERTOP OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES, WITH A SLUG OF MODEST
LAYER MOISTURE. HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THIS FEATURE LIFTS/DIGS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN MI, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ~0.25-0.50" OF RAIN WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE
NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL FINE TUNE THIS RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE
COMING DAYS. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALONG
WITH THE COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND THANKS TO
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD LEAD
TO A STEADY WARNING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. CONSEQUENTLY,
CPC'S 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK (MAY 16-22) SHOWS NORTHERN MI SOLIDLY IN
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. FOR REFERENCE, NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ARE ~MID TO UPPER 60S. THUS, WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 TO 20KTS AS A FROPA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ISO -SHRA RESULTS IN A FEW TERMINALS (KAPN) SEEING VCSH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR DEGRADED CONDITIONS UNDER THE
SHOWERS. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND FROPA, DIMINISHING AFTER
02Z. NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR BR/FG NEAR KCIU AFTER 06Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH G15 TO 20KTS AFTER 16Z. ISO -SHRA RETURNS NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
021>023-027>029-032>035-041-099.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ018-020-
024>026-030-031-036-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...ELD
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