492
FXUS63 KAPX 070001
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-FOG REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY TONIGHT.
-HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
-HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BUILDS NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL RECORD
BREAKING HIGHS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGH, WITH ITS AXIS POSITIONED OVER LAKE
HURON TODAY WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
UPSTREAM RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
THIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS THIS TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DEVELOPS A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN
LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE
REGION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS, DELIVERING THE
TYPICAL UNORGANIZED AMOUNTS OF QPF THE TO NORTHWOODS BEFORE THE WAVE
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RIDGING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SURGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TONIGHT, SUNDAY AND MONDAY: OVERNIGHT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WHILE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
A RESULT, ESPECIALLY FAVORING INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WAS DAYTIME MIXING LEADS TO CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL
DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF THE DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY. EVEN WITH
A WEAKENING AND UNORGANIZED SYSTEM, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50". WITH PWAT'S REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM COLUMN OF AIR, LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LIKELY. THAT BEING SAID, A
VERY SYNOPTICALLY DISHEVELED SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO VERY UNORGANIZED
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY AREAS ALSO
OBSERVING LESS THAN THE HIGHEST PROBS. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST, BUT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL QPF IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL SUPPORT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WARM SOUTHERLY AIR
INFLUENCE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
(CELSIUS) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WARMEST DAY WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WITH SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY WARMEST
LOCATIONS OBSERVING HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS THIS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT, FOCUSED IN AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY SOIL MOISTURES, FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BE OR HOW LOW THE
VISIBILITY. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR OR EVEN
LIFR CONDITIONS. ANY FG/LOW CLOUD WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JK
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