005
FXUS63 KAPX 202014
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD WITH MORE LAKE SNOWS
- WINDS TURN SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
- BRIEF BREAK OF SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF SNOW
THIS WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/PATTERN FORECAST:
DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD, WITH ATTENDANT SLUG OF BITTERLY
COLD AIR WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES (H8 TEMPERATURES BELOW -30C) CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THIS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SET TO
SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GREAT
LAKES REMAIN LARGELY OPEN FOR BUSINESS...WITH MULTI-BANDS OF LAKE
GENERATED SNOW IMPACTING THE FAVORED SNOW BELT LOCATIONS. COMPLETE
LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS DRIVING SMALL FLAKE FORMATION,
LIMITING OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS SOME BUT PRODUCING PERIODS OF NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS UNDER THE MORE INTENSE BANDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECOVERED LITTLE, WITH MOST AREAS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SINGLE
DIGITS. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WIND CHILL READINGS
ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LAKE SNOW EVOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY. HEADLINE
MANAGEMENT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.
DETAILS:
NUMBER ONE ISSUE REMAINS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH TOP-DOWN
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWING LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST INTERIOR AREAS. EXPECT SOME OF OUR
TRADITIONAL COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO MAKE A RUN INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER
YET, WITH MANY AREAS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (-20F EASTERN UPPER/-15F NORTHERN LOWER) LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING WELL BELOW ZERO. AS SUCH...ALL INHERITED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN.
LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE, WITH MOST ORGANIZED AND HEAVIEST SNOWS
TARGETING NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY TONIGHT...DRIVEN FROM WHAT LOOKS
TO BE STRONG MESO-LOW DRIVEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WINDS DO BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY PUNTING BEST SNOWS NORTH
INTO ONTARIO. MORE MULTI-BAND LAKE SNOWS OFF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN,
WITH SLOWLY WAVERING WINDS GENERALLY TARGETING THE TRADITIONAL WEST
FLOW AREAS. AGAIN...COMPLETE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL
KEEP A MORE "TALCUM POWDER" TYPE SNOW, KEEPING OVERALL SNOWFALL
RATES LIMITED BUT PRODUCING AREAS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES. STILL,
THROUGH SIMPLE DURATION OF SNOWS, LOOKING AT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF
SNOW IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS BY LATER TUESDAY. WILL EXTEND INHERITED
ADVISORIES THROUGH TUESDAY AS NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
MODIFIED ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN/IL WITH LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CONUS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A
WEAKENING LEE SIDE LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHERN MI WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. EARLY WED MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP TO BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER SEEING CHANCES
OF DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO AS SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CLEAR.
WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENED SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES TO
NORTHERN MI WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. SLRS
CAN INCREASE DUE TO A FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE, LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WED INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA THUR INTO FRI WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK IN SNOW CHANCES
FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A QUICK BREAK HOWEVER, WITH MORE SNOW CHANCES
NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DROP, HOWEVER A FEW THINGS COULD HALT
LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING. IF THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGRESSES DOWN THE
CANADIAN PLAINS QUICKER THAN FORECASTED, CLOUDS AND SURFACE WINDS
COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND ZERO OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW VS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WED AND THURS IS SIGNALED IN
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER IT IS STILL EARLY AND DETAILS
COULD CHANGE. THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE CWA IN
MOST GUIDANCE, HOWEVER WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINENTAL MOISTURE
COULD GENERATE A MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOWFALL (A HEALTHY
DGZ), WHICH WOULD INCREASE SLRS COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
LATELY AND ALLOW SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE QUICKER. ITS STILL UNCERTAIN
ON THE AMOUNT OF CONTINENTAL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE, SO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SNOW BELT
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR WITHIN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL BE A TOUCH GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020>022-025-031-086-099.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
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