479
FXUS63 KAPX 040348
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1148 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
- SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION RUNNING JUST A BIT AHEAD OF IT...CURRENTLY CENTERED RIGHT
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. RESULT IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS, WITH ALL THAT SUN HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT
EARLY AUGUST SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
EXPANDING THE REGIONAL VIEW SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGHING PIVOTING STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KICKING OFF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE PROCESS ACROSS THAT AREA.
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT A PROGRESSIVE ONE HEADING THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING UPSTREAM WAVE TO PIVOT INTO AND ACROSS
OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STILL APPEARS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BECOMES CENTERED WITHIN BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
REGIME BETWEEN WEST ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE AXES TO END
THE WEEK ON INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE REGIME MAY
ATTEMPT TO RELAX A BIT THEREAFTER, ALLOWING MORE ZONAL CENTRAL NOAM
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ADDRESSING PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THOSE CENTERED ON THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
DETAILS:
WHILE SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST, EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES DRIVING A GOOD NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. EVENING
WILL START A BIT WARMER, SO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY JUST A BIT ABOVE
THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. STILL...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WIDESPREAD 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS IN
THE AU SABLE RIVER VALLEY PERHAPS MAKING A RUN AT THE UPPER 40S.
THESE READINGS WILL PROBABLY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO ENTICE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME "FIELD" FOG AND FOG NEAR INLAND BODIES OF WATER,
BUT DEFINITELY SHOULDN'T BE A BIG DEAL AT ALL.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY
MAY SEE SOME BROKEN CONVECTION MAKE A RUN AT EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN RIGHT ALONG AND A BIT AHEAD OF THAT
NEXT WAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT. DEFINITELY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT GIVEN ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
AND WITH BETTER SHEAR PROFILES DETACHED TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIMING, INCREASING RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP GRADUALLY EXPAND SHOWER COVERAGE WITH TIME. AGAIN, LACK
OF INSTABILTY SHOULD KEEP ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. MAY SEE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS WITH RATHER
SATURATED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VERTICAL (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEED 1.75 INCHES) AND EXPECTED RELATIVELY SLOW SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS IDEA CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN CENTERING TOWARD SAGINAW BAY AND POINTS
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. DO THINK EXIT OF RAIN WILL BE A BIT FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY SOME GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CORRIDOR OF
UPPER JET SUPPORT EXITS AND CONGEALED COLD POOLS PUSH AXIS OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MUCH OF THE
AREA DOES REMAIN UNDER MARGINAL RISK WORDING FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEF IS ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST, WITH THE MUCH BETTER HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
REMAINING WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A BIT WARM FOR TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. A TAD COOLER FOR
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
NOT SEEING ANYTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. DOES LOOK LIKE A SLOW WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND MOSTLY IN THE 80S. ANY PASSING WAVES MAY HELP
KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES, BUT AGAIN CURRENT TRENDS
SUPPORT NOTHING OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK ALL
THOSE DETAILS OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
MAYBE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT, BEST CHANCE AT MBL. INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES TUESDAY. BUT
VFR. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REACH CIU/PLN BY MID-LATE TUE EVENING,
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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