735
FXUS63 KAPX 261754
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
154 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLOW COOLING TREND KICKS OFF WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BACK TOWARD MORE NORMAL LEVELS TO END THE WEEK.
- SMALL RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO
BE AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
WELL ADVERTISED AND TALKED ABOUT CENTRAL NOAM UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITION TO AN OMEGA BLOCK NOW KICKING INTO OVERDRIVE WITH RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD EXPANDING RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA...BOOKENDED BY DEEPENING WEST COAST AND NORTHEAST NOAM
CENTERED TROUGH AXES. NORTHERN MICHIGAN CENTERED ON THE
RIDGE/NORTHEAST NOAM TROUGH INTERFACE...WITH PASSING WAVE WELL TO
OUR NORTH HELPING DRAG A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. FULL THROTTLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE FEATURE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE, HELPING DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE
80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OF
COURSE...GUSTY WEST WINDS KEEPING CONDITIONS CONSIDERABLY COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE POST SURFACE
TROUGH REGIME, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER UP THAT WAY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR). DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS, THIS DESPITE THE WARMTH AND SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING
TROUGH. DO EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO SHORTLY FIRE TO OUR WEST WITHIN
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PLUME...WITH PERHAPS SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING A RUN AT OUR FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS, WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LOOKING TO REMAIN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN
UPSTREAM RIDGING AND CONTINUED DEEPENING EASTERN TROUGHING. CANADA
WILL REMAIN OUR SOURCE REGION FOR OUR AIRMASSES, BRINGING A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. LEAD SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DETAILS:
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT LOOK TO DROP SOUTH INTO
AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AGAIN PART OF THE EASTERN TROUGH
DEEPENING PROCESS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED, BUT COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY SUPPORT TO ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE FEATURES. DEFINITELY NOT
EXPECTING A WASH OUT OR ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DOWNWARD TREND, BUT STILL LOOKING AT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER.
CANADA ORIGINATED HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SUPPORTING DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
STARTING TO SEE GROWING SUPPORT FOR A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CONSENSUS
BLEND ALREADY SHOWING EVIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO, GIVEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH WARMER READINGS IN OUR SOUTHWEST
FOOTPRINT. SLOW MODERATION ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND BACK TO NORMAL. OF COURSE, ALL
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SCT-BKN100-250
AT TIMES. WEST WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH REMAIN A LITTLE BREEZY, BEFORE DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DRY MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ON WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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