143
FXUS63 KAPX 301902
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND HEAVY RAIN
- HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IMPACTS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY: A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MI TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MID TO
HIGH 90S AND LOW 100S OVER MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY, EVEN UNDER
A THICK DECK OF STRATUS WHICH WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. WHERE SUN CAN PEAK THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY SHOOT UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES AS SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE
ON THEIR STEADY RISE INTO THE MID TO HIGH 70S. THIS AIRMASS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WELL FOR SPOTS SOUTH OF M-72. HEAT STRESS TENDS TO BE
CUMULATIVE, AND BY THURSDAY EVEN IF TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN TUESDAY IT WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR MORE VULNERABLE POPULATION'S AS SURFACE TD ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S FOR NORTHERN LOWER. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, WHICH COULD PROVIDE TEMPORARY RELIEF UNDER THE RAIN
COOLED AIR BUT COULD ALSO RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES WHICH WOULD
TAKE OUT AC FOR SOME FOLKS AND BUILD ON THESE HEAT HAZARDS.
SEVERE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD (SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW), HOWEVER THIS COULD EXACERBATE HEAT STRESS LOCALLY.
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING: CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTS A LARGE SCALE
UPPER -PNA PATTERN, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO ADVECT DEEP GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. A LARGER UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINS
OVER ND AND IS INGESTING A DRY SLOT NEAR THE BASE OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE (OVER MN). THE GREAT LAKES REGION
REMAINS IN THE DEEP MOISTURE, WHERE PWATS HAVE DOUBLED IN THE
LAST 48 HOURS AND ARE REACHING AROUND +1.5" PER ALPW ESTIMATES
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUST OF 15 TO 25 MPH, WHICH HAS BEEN RESULTING IN HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS OVER LK MI AND THUS MODERATE TO HIGH SWIM RISKS.
AS THE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS SCATTERS OUT THIS AFTERNOON,
SATELLITE DEPICTS AGITATED CU BEGINNING TO BUBBLE. DUE TO THE
HIGH HUMIDITY PRESENT AND EARLIER CLOUD COVER, ITS UNLIKELY
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TS IN THE
MID 90S.. HOWEVER SOME SPOTS COULD THIS EVENING OVER NE LOWER.
IF CONVECTION CAN BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION, LOTS OF ENERGY
AWAITS.. THE 12Z KAPX RAOB CONFIRMS HIGHER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATERS OF 7 TO 8 C/KM, WITH RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING THIS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SHEAR FROM 0-1KM EXISTS (15 TO 20KTS)
WITH BETTER SHEAR IN THE 0- 6KM (30KTS) WILL BE PRESENT THIS
EVENING. STEERING WINDS WILL BE WESTSOUTHWEST AT AROUND 25 TO
35 MPH. OVER NORTHERN WI, THERE IS A MOISTURE GRADIENT, WHICH
COULD ALSO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION THAT WOULD MOVE NEAR THE
TIP OF THE MITT AND OVER THE U.P.. DUE TO THE SHEAR PROFILES AND
MOISTURE PRESENT, DISCRETE STORMS THAT TAP INTO THE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MATURE, POSSIBLY BECOMING SUPER
CELLULAR. STORMS WILL BE MOVING, HOWEVER THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION (POSSIBLY HP SUPER
CELL). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN IN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS (SOIL
SATURATIONS REMAIN 50% OR MORE). STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND WITH THE
LOWER CLOUD LEVELS A TORNADO/WATERSPOUT OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE DEPENDENCY ON THE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
NORTHERN MI WILL CONTINUE TO INTERSECT THE DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AROUND THE UPPER HIGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE WAVES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS, HOWEVER STORM CHANCES
DO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LINGER INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT, BUT COULD BE
TEMPORARILY RECEIVED BY RAIN COOLED AIR UNDER STORMS.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER ND WILL START TO OPEN
UP AND BEGIN ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME,
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY A LOBE OF ENERGY SPINNING OVER THE
DESERT SW), WILL RACE NORTHEAST WARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS (SOUTHERN MN).
THIS LEADS TO CHANCES FOR MCS/LINEAR CONVECTION FORMATION OVER
SOUTHERN MN/WI WEDNESDAY, AND THE STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY
DIRECT THAT OVER NORTHERN WI, THEN NORTHERN LK MI. THESE
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME DYNAMICS AND ENERGY
TO WORK WITH WHILE MOVING EAST, AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER WHEN
COMING ACROSS THE LAKE. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS, AS WELL AS A TORNADO/WATERSPOUT OR
TWO. THE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE THAN WHAT WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE LAST TWO DAYS, AS INCOMING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
COULD INITIATE NEW CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MI. TRAINING OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO RESULT IN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE SWATHS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER NORTHERN LOWER, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
+3".
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CAN PROGRESSES EAST, THE 596
DAM UPPER RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ANCHOR IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST AND A MOISTURE
BOUNDARY COULD SET UP NEAR THE U.P. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, HOWEVER
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND
INTERSECT MI. A FEW UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WHICH COULD HELP SPARK MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. STORM
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ON RADAR SLOWLY
TRACKING INTO THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING, ORGANIZATION, AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS AND
IF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS, AND HAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A FEW CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FELL EARLIER MONDAY AND
RESULTED IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, ROAD WASHOUTS, AND RIVER
RISES. AREAS HARDEST HIT WERE FROM THE LEELANAU PENINSULA EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF ANTRIM COUNTY, AND THEN UP ACROSS EMMETT AND
CHEBOYGAN COUNTY. THE JORDAN RIVER HAS CRESTED TO ~6.6 FT, TOP
3 ALL TIME. CONSEQUENTLY, AN AREA FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG
THE RIVER IN ANTRIM AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTY. WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS, THERE WAS SOME
PONDERING ABOUT A FLOOD WATCH. RELATIVE LOW PREDICTABILITY WILL
PRECLUDE THAT CONSIDERATION AT THIS TIME, BUT IF BETTER
AGREEMENT COMES INTO PLAY LATER THIS WEEK THEN PERHAPS THAT
COULD BE DISCUSSED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND THE RISK FOR
FLOODING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-097>099.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ025-
031.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ086>088-095-
096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ345-
346.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...NSC
HYDROLOGY...
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