080
FXUS63 KAPX 042343
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ENDING THIS EVENING. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED RAINFALL ARRIVES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOWER HUMIDITIES AHEAD BUT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAYING AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FASTER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, WHICH HAPPENS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES, INCLUDING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK AND FREQUENTLY ZONAL.
WEAK TROFFING WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF HE NATION TO
START THE NEW WEEK, WITH ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT NOTEWORTHY DISTURBANCE OF
CONSEQUENCE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CANADA AROUND
MIDWEEK, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE/FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE
NEXT ORGANIZED THREAT FOR RAINFALL.
FORECAST DETAILS: SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY
SOUTH OF M-72 AND EAST OF US-131. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FADE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTFUL TO PLANNED
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS THIS EVENING.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR THAN HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST WEEK
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED AS
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROFFING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF CANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY ONCE WE GET PAST
THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE REGION. WOULD NIGHT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
THIS FRONT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
DRIVING IT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
DESPITE THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. THE WARMEST/MOST HUMID PERIOD
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
OUTSIDE OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS, AVIATION FORECAST LOOKS QUIET THIS
EVENING, WITH LESSER SHOWER CHANCES MOVING FORWARD. PERIODS OF
HIGHER CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FOG CHANCES. BUT FOG-PRONE MBL WILL HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR.
LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PBB
AVIATION...JZ
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