591
FXUS63 KAPX 161733
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
133 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS,
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND DRYING
CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WARMEST DAY FORECASTED MONDAY.
- OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY/ TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
BROAD ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, SOUTHWEST FLOW
STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING A MUCH
WARMER AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE
REGION. OVERALL, THE PATTERN BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE ACTIVE
HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
FORCING OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING FAIRLY LIMITED OVERALL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH OVERALL RAINFALL STILL
LOOKING RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY RECEIVING
MINOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF M-72). COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, AND CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DECENT AFTERNOON MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WITH SUSPECTED ACTIVE LAKE BREEZES, AREAS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES AND EASTERN UPPER WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT
STILL PUSH INTO THE 70S. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH GUSTING REGULARLY TO 25 MPH, OCCASIONALLY TO 30 MPH IN
SPOTS. AS A RESULT, HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST (FWF) FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE WARMER PATTERN REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP SUNDAY AS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES INCREASING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT STILL
APPEARS WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY MONDAY, NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT DAYTIME
MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER, AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW NORTHEAST
LOWER DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 DEGREES IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. MEANWHILE, COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
ATTENTION INCREASINGLY TURNS TOWARD LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. MOISTURE CONTINUES RAPIDLY INCREASING DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING OVER 1.0". CURRENT GUIDANCE
STILL GENERALLY FAVORS THE BETTER OVERLAP OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING DISPLACED SOMEWHAT
WEST OF THE AREA, BUT FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION UPSTREAM AND EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST BETTER
INSTABILITY CAN SPREAD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GIVEN
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE/ INSTABILITY,
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOCALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE BIGGEST HAZARDS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES SHOWING SOME SPREAD REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING
TUESDAY, LIKELY TIED AT LEAST IN PART TO HOW MONDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION EVOLVES AND WHETHER ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED BOUNDARIES DEVELOP. AS A RESULT, AT LEAST SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
QUIETER WEATHER GRADUALLY RETURNS THROUGH THE MID NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME LOOK TO SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS, PERHAPS EVEN A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK
(50S/60S).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SKIES TRENDING
SKC AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 15KTS WITH
FREQUENT G20 TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 22Z
FOR MOST TERMINALS, BECOMING AOB 5KTS BY 03Z. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST AS THEY WEAKEN. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR HZ/BR NEAR KMBL DUE
TO LIGHT EAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME 10KTS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-099.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...ELD
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