979
FXUS63 KAPX 241105
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY OVER EASTERN UPPER,
LOWER CHANCES FOR NORTHERN LOWER
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES MID
TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT PATCHY DENSE FOG
FORMING IN SPOTS OVER NORTHERN LOWER, AS WELL AS STRATUS AND
FOG PERSISTING OVER EASTERN UPPER. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING UP AND OVER AN UPPER RIDGE (AXIS CENTERED ON WI THIS
MORNING). THESE CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING LK MI, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO THE EAST TODAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, KAPX VAD PROFILER SHOWS 10
TO 15KTS OF SE WINDS AROUND A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET UP. THESE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT MORE PERSISTENT WINDS HAVE BEEN KEEPING
FOG FORMATION CONFINED TO THE LOWER SPOTS FOR NORTHERN LOWER
WHILE THE HIGHER HILLS REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO WORK TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS OUT OF
NW LOWER. AS A MORE MATURE STRATUS/FOG DECK FORMS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SAGINAW BAY REGION AND UP TO THUNDER BAY, THIS WILL
LIKELY DRIFT TO THE WEST, BRINGING DENSE FOG TO THE INTERIOR HIGHER
HILLS OF NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE. PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING BY NOON.
TODAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MI. AT THE
SAME TIME, WAA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH MI,
HOWEVER THE CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE FRINGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY (REACHING
INTO THE 60S AGAIN), WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. THE LARGER UPPER
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SUNDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE
SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR WEAK RAIN SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN UPPER
STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THESE CHANCES DRIFT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
LOWER LATER SUNDAY, WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANYTHING OVER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. A WIDE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST SUNDAY
AS COOLER AIR KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN UPPER, WITH LOW 70S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER WHICH WILL SEE LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SEEP OVER NORTHERN MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S AND
50S OVER ALL OF NORTHERN MI WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A COUPLE SHORT
WAVES WILL LIKELY MISS NORTHERN MI TO THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME,
HOWEVER CHANCES FOR A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN MI
INCREASE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS DUE TO AREAS OF FG/BR OVER
NE LOWER AND AREAS OF SKC OVER NW LOWER. FG AND LOW STRATUS OVER
KAPN/KCIU/KPLN WILL LIFT AND SCATTER AFTER 14Z, WITH ALL
TERMINALS BECOMING VFR BY 16Z. S/SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN, BECOMING 8 TO 10KTS WITH G15 TO 20KTS AFTER 18Z.
SKIES WILL BE BKN-OVC AOA 15 KFT. A LOW CHANCE EXISTS FOR FG/BR
FORMATION AT TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ018-023-
024-028>030-034>036-041-042.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...ELD
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