548
FXUS63 KAPX 032336
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. INTO THIS
EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT TIMES
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER JET MAX WILL PUNCH EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A WAVE AUGMENTED BY THE ONGOING MCS
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PASSES OVERHEAD BEHIND THE JET.
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
TROUGHING DOES THE SAME AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST, PROVIDING
SUPPORT ALOFT FOR ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS A LARGE
AREA OF THE CONUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND KEEP AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
FORECAST DETAILS:
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE CELLS THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
CHIPPEWA AND LUCE COUNTIES IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS, PROMPTING SPS
ISSUANCE. THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CELLS INITIATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WHILE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WILL LARGELY STAY SUB-SEVERE, A FEW 1"+ HAILSTONES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT -- MUCAPE AROUND 1,500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUCH
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE, MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT ANY ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM OR TWO WILL COME ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55 WITH ANY ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTH OF THE ONGOING MCS AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE EXPANSIVE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL EMPHASIZE THAT SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL STORMS
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL LIKELY NOT
BE A WASHOUT ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MAY STILL DISRUPT SOME AFTERNOON
HOLIDAY PLANS. ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS, HOPEFULLY
MAKING FOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AROUND
SUNSET.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ENOUGH TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THAT AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE STAYS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS, SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
FOR MOST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
STRONG STORMS TO OUR SOUTH WILL SEND PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN LOWER MI TAF REPORTS, ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SPRINKLES/WEAK SHOWERS. LAKE-BREEZE-FORCE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
EASTERN UP WILL TEND TO FIZZLE THRU THE EVENING HOURS. CONTINUE
TO THINK THAT MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO MBL
OVERNIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD AND AFTER
DAYBREAK. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING CIU.
LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...JZ
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