756
FXUS63 KAPX 170820
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
420 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY/WINDY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE START OF A WARMING TREND.
- CALMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AS THE MILD STRETCH CONTINUES
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA TO START THE WEEKEND...BIT OF A SPLIT
IN THE TROUGH WITH ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN END EXPECTED TO CAUSE
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE COMING DAYS. A BROAD
RIDGE (+2 SIGMA 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY) ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES
AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN TERRITORIES. WHAT HAD EARLIER
THIS WEEK BEEN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN...
ANCHORED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH OF JAPAN...IS
FLATTENING/BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET KEEPING
THINGS PROGRESSIVE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. TROUGH AXIS NOW EAST OF
THE UPPER LAKES SO STRONGER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLING IN ALOFT.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH RUNS NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHEAST
ONTARIO/QUEBEC ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY;
-4C 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF THE 0000Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS ALLOWING FOR
NORTH FLOW LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD STREETS OFF THE SURROUNDING LAKES
ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS (INVERSION ~800MB/-7C AT APX).
LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH IS SPREADING AN AS DECK
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. 0400Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1039MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH IMPRESSIVE RIDGING
FOR MID OCTOBER EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO (+4 TO
+5 SIGMA MSLP ANOMALY). SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM
THE HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
BREEZY/WINDY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE START OF A WARMING TREND: ANOTHER
ROUND OF THE "GALES OF OCTOBER" SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAMPS UP
AGAIN...THIS TIME WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. UNLIKE ON
FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPRESS MIXED LAYER DEPTHS SO DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LESS EFFICIENT. FOR TODAY...STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM FKS-PZQ WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 30MPH. GUSTS TO 35MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
AREAS NORTH OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT DUE TO
TURBULENT MIXING...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES PROBABLY BECOMING
STEADY OR RISING A BIT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP EVEN MORE SUNDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN (WHICH EVENTUALLY
GETS STRUNG OUT BEFORE REACHING UPPER MICHIGAN). THOUGH MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE EVEN SHALLOWER SUNDAY THERE IS MORE MOMENTUM
AVAILABLE...THUS MORE 25-35MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN (GUSTS TO 40MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN)....AND 30-40MPH GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. HAVE RE-JIGGERED MARINE HEADLINES BETWEEN
OUTGOING AND INCOMING HEADLINES. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/GALE WATCH COMBINATION FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES FROM
POINT BETSIE NORTH...AS WELL AS THROUGH THE STRAITS AND THE STRAITS
TO FALSE DETOUR LAKE HURON ZONE. DESPITE GALE WARNINGS ALREADY
BEING UP FOR THE OPEN LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY...WOULD RATHER
DEAL WITH THE TWO PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET AND
SEPARATE OUT THE GALES WHICH WILL BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON
(WIDESPREAD 50S). SUNDAY HIGHS WOULD HAVE A LOT OF POTENTIAL IF WE
COULD TAP INTO 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 12C...BUT MIXING DEPTH
TOO SHALLOW FOR THAT (AND THAT LACK OF MIXING IS WHY 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE SO WARM). EXPECTING MORE HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER...AND FROM 55 TO 60 ABOVE THE BRIDGE.
CALMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AS THE MILD STRETCH CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK: DEVELOPING EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL BOTTLE UP THE PATTERN FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE BIG NEWS FOR MONDAY WILL BE LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEK WITH
MINIMAL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
FLIRTING WITH 70-75 DEGREE HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
THREAT FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT...AND THE 6 TO
10 DAY FORECAST VALID FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUES HIGH
PROBABILITIES (70 TO 80 PERCENT) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION). NOT THE BEST NEWS FOR BURGEONING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SEVERE DROUGHT PER
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
N/NNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU 9-10Z OR SO AND COULD
TURN LIGHT/VRB WITH OFFSHORE/LAND BREEZES POSSIBLE AT
TVC/MBL...BEFORE SWITCHING TO SW/WSW AFTER 12-15Z...BECOMING GUSTY
AGAIN 15-25KTS OR A LITTLE BETTER, ESP FOR PLN/CIU. VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...BUT
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR MBL AROUND 8-12Z WHEN A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE;
VFR PREVAILS THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES, WITH SKC
POSSIBLE, ESP FOR MBL. STILL WONDER ABOUT PATCHY FOG BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THIS IDEA FOR TAF SITES WITH AGGRESSIVE DRYING THUS FAR
TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LHZ345-
346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ349.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...FEF
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