144
FXUS63 KAPX 111900
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
200 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WHITEFISH BAY COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE (LOCALLY HEAVY) SNOW MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT, TRANSITIONING NW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES LINGER THIS WEEKEND
- ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR
TYPICAL SNOWBELT LOCATIONS
- TEMPERATURES COULD WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IS DEPICTING A LARGE SCALE PNA PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA TODAY, HINTING AT THE PATTERN CHANGE TO COME. UNDER THE
UPPER CLOSED LOW EXITING, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING OVER PARTS OF NW LOWER (NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY ARE THE MOST ROBUST SHOWERS). NORTH WINDS ARE USHERING
IN DRIER AIR AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST LAKE
EFFECT TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE STRENGTH OF THE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. INITIAL
REPORTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAS BEEN SEEN, WITH LOCAL REPORTS UP TO 7"
(AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE TRAINED LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING).
TONIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE MOVE, THE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDTIONS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MI TONIGHT,
WHICH LEADS TO MOST OF NORTHEAST LOWER DIPPING DOWN TO SINGLE
DIGITS (WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES LESS THAN 0F).
SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER NORTHWEST LOWER,
HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DIP INTO THE TEENS
WITH THIS COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NEAR THE
SURFACE, WITH LIGHT LL NW/W FLOW (~850MB). THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SOME MESOSCALE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTHERN LK MI AND NEAR WHITEFISH BAY. A LAND BREEZE
WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS FOR LK MI, AND
DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD ESTABLISH AN AREA OF LL CONVERGENCE OVER
WHITEFISH BAY.
UNCERTAINTIES: AT THIS TIME, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHERE A HEAVIER LES SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LK MI, AS
SMALL SCALE INTERACTIONS WILL BE DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
TOTALS COULD AMOUNT TO A FEW (1-4) INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. THERE
IS SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS FORMING OVER WHITEFISH
BAY AND MOVING TOWARDS THE SOO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING DUE
TO THE CANADIAN SHIELD BEING CLOUD FREE TONIGHT. TWO THINGS ARE
PREVENTING AN ADVISORY ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON; THE FIRST IS THE
EXTREME VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE TRANSIENT IN A WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING REGIME
AND UNDER LIGHT LL WINDS. THIS YIELDS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD IN THE
SNOW AMOUNTS SPREADING OVER A LARGER AREA (KEEPING NEAR THE COASTAL
AREAS/ADJACENT AREAS THO). THE SECOND IS THE ENVIRONMENT; MANY OF
THE CAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES WITH A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION, DRY
AIR AT THE TOP OF THE DGZ (LEADING TO SHALLOW DGZ DEPTHS), AND THE
OMEGA MAXIMIZED JUST BELOW THE DGZ. THESE PROFILES RESULT IN LOWER
SLRS, AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW FOR SOME SPOTS (NOT THE BEST SNOW PRODUCTION SOUNDINGS).
FRIDAY: WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MOVING IN
ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT STAYED OVER THE WATERS INLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
LIGHT SNOW & CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING FOR COASTAL NW LOWER. WINDS
WON'T STRENGTHEN UNTIL LATER FRIDAY AS SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE.
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN, LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE SEEN
OVER PARTS OF MACKINAC, CHIPPEWA, AND EMMET COUNTIES. WINDS SHIFT
OVERNIGHT TO WEST, THEN NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER NORTHERN LOWER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. INITIAL
THOUGHTS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES.
THIS COULD CHANGE AS MORE CAMS COME IN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
A CLOSED LOW SLIDES DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, TOWARDS MI EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC
HELP AND COLDER LL TEMPERATURES TO AID IN CONTINUING NW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE SEEN OVER EASTERN UPPER SATURDAY DUE TO SOME LAKE AGGREGATE
TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO A VERY COLD LL AIRMASS MOVING IN. A BURST
OF INTENSITY WILL BE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE COLDER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WHERE SKIES CAN
CLEAR (TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF NE LOWER).
NEXT WEEK: ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY NOT REACH NORTHERN MI
NEXT WEEK, ZONAL FLOW AND SOUTHERLY LL/SURFACE WINDS WILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR FREEZING, REACHING FREEZING AND/OR
ABOVE BY MID WEEK. SOME HINTS AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INDICATE THAT
MIXED PRECIP AND/OR RAIN COULD BE SEEN, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO
NAIL THAT DOWN FOR SURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR COURTESY OF PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING MVFR GENERALLY DURING SNOW
SHOWERS AND MARGINAL MVFR TO IFR OUTSIDE SNOW SHOWERS. POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER THIS AFTERNOON... WITH JUST NW LOWER SITES
AND CIU CLINGING TO SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ021-026-027-033-034.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...HAD
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