145
FXUS63 KAPX 201051
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
651 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-PATCHY FOG AND LINGERING DRIZZLE CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
-HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK.
-SEASONABLY NORMAL FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES BUILD THIS WEEK WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS CREATING FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: THE CURRENT WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGHING REGIME
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AS AN UPSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT, A
BROAD RIDGING PATTERN OCCUPIES THE NORTHERN U.S., WHILE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHING KEEPS WARM LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
CWA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT,
DELIVERING LIGHT RAINFALL AND PATCHY MORNING FOG, RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE
SEPTEMBER, WITH MOST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S BUT COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S.
FORECAST DETAILS: CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. SHOWERS ARE
MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA, BUT SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES COULD OBSERVE AN ADDITIONAL TRACE OF RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED
BY SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG. POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUILD BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
H8 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
60S. ONLY CONCERNING WEATHER TO MONITOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CAUSING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
AND UPPER 30S. COLDEST NIGHT BE MONDAY NIGHT WHERE INTERIOR
AREAS/ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL LIKELY OBSERVE LOWS NEAR FREEZING,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FROST. NO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY SUB-VFR VSBYS AS A RESULT OF FG/BR
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, BREEZY
IN SPOTS -- ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LHZ346-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
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