418
FXUS63 KAPX 190131
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
831 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND VERY COLD AIR EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE NORTHER EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
SW LOWER MICHIGAN. LATEST KAPX 88D BASE REF LOOP DOES SHOW SOME OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REACHING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...RESULTING IN ONLY SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES/VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SW CWA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
STREAMING INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE AREA AS WELL.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE...REFOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN OFF OF LAKE HURON. SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THAT MOISTURE SHIELD JUST SKIRTS TO OUR SOUTH. ALL IN
ALL...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
WHERE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THANKS TO DRY NE DRAINAGE
FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...AND WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FOR A FEW HOURS VERY LATE TONIGHT. STAY
WARM EVERYONE!
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
..TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE AND
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STEP-DOWN PROCESS TO A MUCH COLDER
WEATHER REGIME NOW WELL UNDERWAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ONLY HELPING THE COOLING CAUSE, WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A VERY DEEP NORTHEAST CANADA CENTERED TROUGH
AXIS. SPLIT FLOW DOMINATES THE REST OF THE CONUS, WITH A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS SOUTHERN WAVE, COUPLED WITH A MUCH MORE SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM
POCKET OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, IS KICKING OFF
A BROAD AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MUCH LESS ACTIVE ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH JUST SOME LIGHT LAKE DRIVEN
SNOWS IN A SLOWLY VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PATTERN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAS OFFSET THE ALREADY MUTED JANUARY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CYCLE, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
UPSTREAM WAVES EVENTUALLY CONGEAL, DRIVING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROXIMITY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
PERSISTENT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW SHIELD
AND A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO
AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: JUST HOW COLD TO GO ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ADDRESSING THOSE LIGHT SNOW CONCERNS.
DETAILS: BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE FURTHER MATURES AS IT PASSES
ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS SHOULD BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TIME. SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION WILL BE SEVERELY HAMPERED BY AN SUB 5KFT CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEPTH AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR ROTATING OUT OF CANADA. IN
ADDITION, MAY SEE THE NORTHERN AND MUCH LESS INTENSE FRINGE OF THAT
OHIO VALLEY WINTER STORM CLIP AREAS DOWN NEAR M-55, BRINGING THE
THREAT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO THOSE AREAS BY LATER TONIGHT. ALL
TOLD, LOOKING AT JUST MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT, LIKELY
REMAINING WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN UNDER THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PERHAPS FAR BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE FALLING TEMPERATURES AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION ONLY RAMPS UP WITH TIME. CLOUDS WILL DO THEIR BEST TO
KEEP READING IN-CHECK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE, WITH
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY, NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
IDEAL TO BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS
THEY HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST. FULLY EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER NEGATIVE TEENS, WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST CHIPPEWA COUNTY, INCLUDING SAULT STE
MARIE. COUPLE THOSE TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS, AND WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL LIKELY DIP BELOW -20 DEGREES BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. JUST SHORT OF HEADLINE WORTHY, BUT VERY COLD NONETHELESS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
..THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE STORM TO
THE SOUTH PULLS DOWN COLD AIR. ALSO, THE COLD AIR WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON...SO FAR.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...S PLAINS LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, AS A DECENT 500 MB TROUGH
BEGINS TO SWING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS LEADS TO THE NORTH
TO NNE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH THE SNOW THAT IS FALLING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF A PZQ TO
CAD LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
DIMINISHES, WHILE THE LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE, UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, THE SNOW ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW LOWER/E UPPER BEGINS TO GET BETTER FOR A TIME. THEN
DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS WE GO INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT HAS SOME
ISSUES WITH IT. ONE IS THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IS -25C OR COLDER. THIS MAKES FOR SMALL SNOW FLAKES OVER
THE REGION, WHICH COULD A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THE VISIBILITY. ALSO, THE
AMOUNTS, WHICH COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
WITH THESE COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES, CAUSES ISSUES OF DOUBLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO SFC MINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND WITH THE WIND
EXPECTED COULD PRODUCE ADVISORY WIND CHILLS IN E UPPER. HYPOTHERMIA
AND FROSTBITE ARE ISSUES THAT WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...A STORM SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LAKE EFFECT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE LENDS TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AS SW
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES, MONDAY. HOWEVER, MONDAY NIGHT, THE WARM
FRONT TO THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES IN AND SNOW BEGINS BY 12Z/TUE.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TRACK ISSUES FOR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN, BUT N LOWER LOOKS TO HAVE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MAYBE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
M-72. THEN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST, AND LES IS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW DIMINISHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY.
FRIDAY, THE UPCOMING COLD AIR WHICH IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT WOULD BE
EVEN COLDER AND COULD KICK OFF THE UPCOMING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THRU TONIGHT...WITH SOME SYNOPTIC
ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM TRACK SOUTH OF OUR AREA PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SHIFTING FOCUS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR/MVFR THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THERE WILL BE
VARIOUS TIMES FOR LOW END ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
AS WELL AS SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FLURRIES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page