616
FXUS63 KAPX 062334
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
734 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MIDWEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
TRANQUIL TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE REGION
HIGH AND DRY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES. MOISTURE BEGINS POOLING TO
THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN TO THE EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN DURING
THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
QUICK MOVING ENERGY AND TROUGHING BEGIN TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME, WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE POOLED TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. ENS MEANS SUGGEST
1.5-1.8"+ PWS (+1.5 - +2.0 SIGMA) WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
THUS, EFFICIENT, POTENTIALLY HEAVY, RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY
IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE
QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE AREA OF BEST LIFT SETS UP AND THUS
THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE
ENS GUIDANCE, AND MOST DETERMINISTIC, PRINT THE BEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, LEAKING INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BE THAT AS IT
MAY, STORMS WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER
MI, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORM WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (SKINNY CAPES IN SOME CASES).
WE'LL NEED TO FINE TUNE ANY SEVERE THREAT, IF ANY, ON THURSDAY.
ACTIVITY LARGELY WANES INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE/SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A FEW DISTURBANCES
IMPINGING FROM THE NORTH, BUT CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE REGION
MAINLY DRY. BIG STORY WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
NATION, AS A MONSTER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS
STATES, LEADING TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE LOCALES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE. COULD SEE A TOUCH OF FOG
OVERNIGHT, BUT THAT CHANCE IS SMALL ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT TAFS. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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