474
FXUS63 KAPX 082024
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
324 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
FOCUS FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST LOWER.
- ANOTHER SHOT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SSE TONIGHT OUT OF ONTARIO AND INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR, DIVING WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, H850 LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONSEQUENTLY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO FOSTER SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS LEELANAU COUNTY, GTB, AND
POINTS SOUTHWEST, SECONDARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
ACCUMULATING SNOW:
TRICKY FORECAST THAT HINGES ON SUBTLE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS,
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
TO MODEST, BUT THE DAY CREW SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT FEEL FOR
THINGS AT THIS TIME, OR AS GOOD AS IT WILL EVER BE.
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
AIDED BY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. BEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE LEELANAU
PENINSULA AS IT JUTS OUT INTO LAKE MICHIGAN, AND MORE GENERALLY GTB
AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE, WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHTS ~2 TO PERHAPS NEARING 3 KM
IN SOME CASES AND NON ZERO CAPE VALUES, CERTAINLY GOOD ENOUGH FOR
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES. THIS BAND, NEAR LAKE MI AND FROM
GTB/LEELANAU PENINSULA, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
QUESTION IS HOW FAR DOES THIS BAND SHIFT OFF SHORE, ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO DOWNTOWN MANISTEE, AND HOW MUCH DO THE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES IMPACT SNOW EFFICIENCY WITHIN THIS REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE CITY/TOWN OF MANISTEE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW, WHEREAS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE COUNTY ITSELF MAY SEE
VERY LITTLE AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS SITUATION.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE WESTERN ANTRIM AND CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES WITHIN THE HILLY TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES
IN THIS REGION. AS FAR AS MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE NO PROBLEM OVERCOMING THIS, SO WHERE THIS HAPPENS,
EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COME SUNDAY EVENING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR GTB/LEELANAU COUNTY AND
POINTS SOUTHWEST, WITH 3-6" OF SNOW. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR/HILLY TERRAIN OF
LEELANAU COUNTY. POOR VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY TO SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS SNOWFALL.
SIMILAR STORY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW, WITH CAM GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTEX GENERATION. THE LOCATION IS THE QUESTION AS
SOME GUIDANCE TRY TO PUSH THIS FEATURE A LITTLE INLAND, WHEREAS
OTHERS KEEP THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS CLOSER TO THE COAST FROM
PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SOME CASES
SHOW SIMILARLY IMPRESSIVE PROFILES, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE A
LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY DUE TO THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPERATURES.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A HIGH END SCENARIO WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, SOME SLOPPY AND SLIPPERY, DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, AND THUS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED
FOR ALCONA, ALPENA, AND PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES.
WITHIN THIS VOLATILE, BUT ISOLATED HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO,
DEFINITELY LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS TO THE HREF GUIDANCE (ALL
FLAVORS: MEAN, PPM, LPPM, PROB, NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS, ETC).
BETWEEN BOTH LAST NIGHTS 00Z RUN AND TODAYS 12Z, THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO HIT PARTS OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA PRETTY GOOD. COULD
A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS APPROACH WARNING LEVEL SNOWS (~MAPLE
CITY) IF THE PERFECT SCENARIO UNFOLDS? CERTAINLY, BUT DO NOT
WANT TO JUMP ON THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY, WETTISH SNOWS IN SPOTS, ADVISORIES WILL
BE HOISTED ACROSS NE LOWER AND GTB POINTS SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
DAY 2-3 (MONDAY - TUESDAY):
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY COLD. MIGHT BE A LITTLE NNW LAKE EFFECT SHIFTING TO NW
FLOW, OR SOME COMBINATION/IN-BETWEEN OF THE TWO DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AND MESOSCALE PATTERN. ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GTB AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. HIGH END
WOULD BE A LOCALIZED AREA ~3-6", LOW END AN ADDITIONAL 1-3", WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS QUICK MOVING VORT MAX SLIDES ON THROUGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS ONTARIO, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
DAYS 4-7 (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY):
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LAKE PROCESSES
WILL GENERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL
LEAD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MORE RAIN NEAR
THE COASTAL REGIONS. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE WANING LATE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES, LIKELY NOT A BIG CONCERN AS FAR AS IMPACTS GO,
ALTHOUGH MINOR ACCUMS AT NIGHT NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIONS.
DRIER SUBSIDENT FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK AS TOUGHING EXITS TO THE
EAST AND RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR
PERHAPS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH -SHSN CHANCES FOR KCIU AND KPLN TONIGHT. -SN THEN SPREADS
TO THE REMAINDER OF SITES SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
LOWERING VISBY'S AND CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS (MAINLY 1.5-2.5KFT).
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD PERIODICALLY DROP TAF SITES
TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY'S, ESPECIALLY AT KTVC AND KMBL.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS SUNDAY GUSTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MIZ018-024-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LMZ323-342-344>346.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...SJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page