137
FXUS63 KAPX 071001
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
601 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-A QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
-HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT QUIET, DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES BUILDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
-ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
AIR MASS INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE TODAY, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SCOURING OUT LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DIG SOUTHWEST,
BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL OVER THE MIDWEST. A PACIFIC AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES BUILDING THROUGH SATURDAY. UPSTREAM, A
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXTENDING MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM. A
BAROCLINIC SETUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WITH A THERMAL GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON – THURSDAY): THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP AN
ATTACHED SURFACE LOW AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION-DRIVEN SNOWFALL FAVORING EASTERN UPPER WILL PRODUCE A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW, BUT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. TEMP PROFILES WILL
WARM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, TRANSITIONING ALL
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN RAINFALL WILL BE MOISTURE-
STARVED, WITH ENOUGH STABILITY TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
CWA. TOTAL QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ENDS ALL PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING (FRIDAY – SATURDAY): A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS FRIDAY WITH MOST MOISTURE
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
PRECIPITATION-FREE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA TO REACH 60 DEGREES THIS
SATURDAY.
MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (NEXT WEEK): A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE SPREADS FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES HINT AT ACTIVE WINTRY OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, BUT THIS REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL LOCATION OF
THE BOUNDARY. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON PRECIP TYPES
AND LOCATIONS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS -SNSH'S WEAKEN
AND DIMINISH. N/NW WINDS AOB 10KTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH
THE DIRECTIONS SHIFTING AROUND, GENERALLY BECOMING W BY 00Z
THEN SW TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT SKIES OF FEW-BKN
AT 3 TO 5KFT WILL BECOME SKC AFTER 18Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. NON-
ZERO CHANCES FOR HAZE/FOG AFTER 06Z FOR SOME SPOTS, HOWEVER
CHANCES FAVOR ALL TERMINALS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-
322.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...ELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page