550
FXUS63 KAPX 012317
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
717 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND
STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES SLOWLY SUPPRESS THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS. A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SNAKED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY WILL ALSO SINK SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, WHICH MAY PUSH THE
SHOWER/STORM FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH, AS WELL AS PROVIDING AT LEAST
A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE 70F+ DEWPOINTS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
FROM DAY TO DAY WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS, AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND RESIDUAL
OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH THE GRADIENT OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
STRONGER FORCING WITH A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ORGANIZED CONVECTION CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILTY AND
SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MORE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
WE MAY FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS ON
THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. BUT HEAT INDICES STILL
LIKELY 90-100F IN MANY AREAS (POSSIBLY 100-105 SOUTHEAST
AREAS). SO WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
VOLATILE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH AMPLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH AN INTRUDING
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING SPARK FOR
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR NOW, WE REMAIN IN A LULL AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH VFR PREVAILING ACROSS THE BOARD. ANTICIPATING THE LOW LEVEL
JET TO REALLY GET GOING, AND WITH A NOCTURNAL INVERSION, THIS
WILL LEAD TO LLWS POTENTIAL AT 2KFT OUT OF THE SW AT 40-50KT. IN
ADDITION, THIS MAY FUEL MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
THE EVENT CONVECTION CAN AFFECT A TAF SITE. AS FAR AS WINDS GO,
GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT TURN WESTERLY THURSDAY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-097>099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-344-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ341-
342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ346.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MSB/HAD
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