646
FXUS63 KAPX 142357
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
STRONGER WINDS TO EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK
- ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
CURRENTLY, RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICT LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER THIS AFTERNOON UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO TREND NORTHWEST, AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AS HIGHER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE COLUMN QUICKLY MOVE
IN. LL AND SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK, BECOMING WEST
AND WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT SOME OF THE LINGERING
SHOW SHOWERS BACK TOWARDS THE BIG 5 FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO A
COUPLE TENTHS AT THE MOST. EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN NEAR
THE COASTAL AREAS OF LK MI (ESPECIALLY NEAR LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY
AND EMMET/CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES). WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN, BECOMING
10 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH (STRONGEST
NEAR THE NORTHERN LK MI COAST). BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, THE NEXT
CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT WITH TIMES OF MODERATE
SNOW OVER MOST OF EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.
TIMES OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE LK MI COASTAL AREAS
AS SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY WITH 850 MB TS STILL NEAR
-15C TO -10C. UNDER GUSTY WINDS, LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REALIZED EVEN IF SNOWFALL IS A BIT MORE MODERATE THAN HEAVY FOR
THESE AREAS (COASTAL LK MI AND TIP OF THE MITT).
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO TO
THE MID DAY HOURS. LARGER SCALE FORCING AND AN IDEAL SNOW
ENVIRONMENT (LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET, STRONGER LL WINDS,
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE, AND COLD LL TEMPS) WILL BE EXITING -
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DISAGREES WITH HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THESE
FEATURES WILL EXIT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW COULD TRANSITION TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS IF DRIER
LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN SOONER THAN THE FORCING
EXITS. TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A STREAK OF
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES EXIT, WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH CONTINUE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. IF
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVADES QUICKER, FREEZING DRIZZLE
COULD BE SEEN OVER SOME SPOTS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGHTS: TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO 1 TO 3 INCHES
OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. OTHER SPOTS ALONG
THE COAST OVER NORTHER LOWER COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES, BUT THIS
SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN QPF, WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO FORCING NOT
ALIGNING AND THE AIRMASS ITSELF BEING VERY DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
TUESDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WARM AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD, AND SHOULD REACH NORTHERN MI MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS
THE WARMER AIR REACHES MI, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING
SOUTHERN CAN (HELPING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OF COURSE), BUT
ALSO RETURNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER.
AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT. ZONAL MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PROVIDING MUCH AID WITH LIFT WHILE THE WARM
SECTOR IS OVER THE CWA. A LITTLE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY
AS THE CLIPPER EXITS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND
DEPENDING ON MOISTURE PROFILES COULD CONTINUE THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
THE WARM SECTOR QUICKLY RETURNS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
DEEP GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT COULD BE SEEN LATE TUES
INTO WED WITH THAT EARLY WEEK CLIPPER, HOWEVER THERE IS A STRONGER
SIGNAL IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR TDS TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FAVORABLE TIME AND PATH FOR THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME, WHICH EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TIMING
AND TRACK SHIFTS COULD RESULT IN A MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION
SCENARIO, ALBEIT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT FAVORING THAT CURRENTLY (LREF
CHANCES FOR ICE GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.01 IS NEAR OR LESS THAN
12% FOR THE CWA).
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD SNOW BREIFLY BEFORE SOME QUICK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. SOME HIGHER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR WHAT WILL BE
SEEN THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING SNOW
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
TEMPORARILY IMPACTING TVC, PLN, AND CIU THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN
FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW MONDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TO WEST
WINDS AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING AS WELL, LIKELY
DROPPING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TAF SITES BESIDES MBL PRIOR TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345-
346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...DJC
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