778
FXUS63 KAPX 130721
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY/TONIGHT?
- THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF A MANISTEE TO ALPENA LINE.
- FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONTINENT TONIGHT...BOOKENDED BY
SLIGHT RIDGING JUST OFF THE PACNW AND AN ATTENDANT SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WA/ID...AND SHARP RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF
THURSDAY'S PUNCHY PV. 540DM UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY
(ATTENDANT OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) WITH ELONGATED
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH
STRONG N FLOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR (0C 850MB ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA)... COMPARED TO +16C AT 850MB ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BENEATH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS. IN BETWEEN, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT (100KT
UPPER JET) AND SCATTERED PERTURBATIONS STRETCHING FROM MT THROUGH MN
UP INTO ONTARIO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
(PWATS PUSHING 2IN OR MORE) IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND EAST COAST
ATTM, NEAR AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM TX TO WV TO
VT...THOUGH STRONG FLOW WITH THE UPPER LOW RESULTING IN SOME
MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1IN) WRAPPING BACK AROUND THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
WESTERN US ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS...BUT 500MB COOLING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONTINENT, ATOP SOME SLIGHT 700MB
WARMING OVER SD/MN, LIKELY TO RESULT IN WEAKENING STABILITY ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL BOUNDARY. (A LITTLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOTED WITH THIS AT 0Z.) A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER
THE EUP ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE PV MAX TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA AS
OF 0Z AS WELL. LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EUP AND OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SEEMS TO BE DRAPING SOME SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS OF 3Z.
UPPER LOW LOOKS TO HANG AROUND ONTARIO/EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE PERIOD, LIKELY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF COOLER AND ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SUBTLE WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, STRETCHING A ZONAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN (HEAVY RAIN?). A
MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS IN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY,
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH AND BRINGING BLUSTERY, COOL, SHOWERY
NW FLOW TO THE REGION TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
WRAPS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIKELY
KEEPING THINGS COOL GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GREATER UNCERTAINTY
COMES INTO PLAY GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, PENDING THE
EVOLUTION/TIMING OF ANOTHER LOBE OF PV SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THOUGH BROADLY, SIGNALS POINT TOWARD
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS EARLY
AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SW FLOW
GOING INTO THE EARLY/MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL US. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS WELL, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE
COMING DAYS, AS IT WILL LIKELY DETERMINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
FORECAST DETAILS...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY...GENERALLY SLOW-MOVING WSW-ENE ORIENTED
BOUNDARY DRAPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
TODAY. FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL LARGELY PARALLEL THIS
BOUNDARY, WHICH BRINGS CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO PLAY...AS SETUP
SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CELL TRAINING, THOUGH IT WOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE IF THE LLJ WAS A LITTLE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY
THAN GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS...AND DO WORRY ABOUT STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT KEEPING CELL MOTION A BIT QUICKER THAN A TEXTBOOK FRONTAL
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. SLOW-MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO LEND TO
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAIN TO HANG OUT OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PROLONGED TIME, THOUGH. AS OF 5Z, THERE SEEMS
TO BE A BIT BETTER TRAINING/MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN (THOUGH PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WI IS STARTING TO CONGEAL
INTO AN EAST-WEST LINE), AND DO WORRY THIS COULD SIGNAL A MORE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF BOTH THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION/HEAVY
RAIN THREAT...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY (OR
AT LEAST, LEND SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE BETTER INSTABILITY, MOISTURE,
AND THEREFORE, CONVECTION, TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH); SIGNALS FOR BEST
PWATS (1.5+IN) LOOK TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE PV SLOWLY DRAPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY KEEPS
THE DOOR OPEN FOR MORE FOCUSED LIFT REMAINING A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH, WITH SIGNALS FOR PWATS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AN INCH IN THIS
REGION. ULTIMATELY, EXACT THREAT AREA FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNCLEAR TILL IT STARTS TO UNFOLD, ESPECIALLY DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH WOULD
LIKELY SHUNT THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE
FURTHER NORTH COULD KEEP HEAVY RAIN IN PLAY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF M-72...WHEREAS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD
LARGELY BE NEAR AND NORTH OF M-72.
STRONG STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH, ESPECIALLY IF THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION LEAVES THINGS
TOO COOL/STABILIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF WE DO
DESTABILIZE/CLOUDS BREAK UP TODAY...500 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS
1500J/KG OR SO OF MUCAPE IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WSW-ENE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WEAKER STABILITY ALOFT
SPREADS IN...AND BEST THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS NE LOWER,
ESPECIALLY FROM MBL/CAD TO APN OR OSC, WHERE THERE IS A BETTER SHOT
AT INSTABILITY BECOMING SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED; WITH FLOW/SHEAR LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, THINK THINGS WILL TEND TO GROW UPSCALE
WITH TIME. WEAKENING STABILITY ALOFT SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR HAIL,
PARTICULARLY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THAN EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...AND SOME SIGNALS FOR DRIER LAYERS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO BE A
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY WITH UPSCALE GROWTH. FLOW LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL, WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST A HAIL RISK WITH SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS IF ANY DEVELOP...THOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME VEERING WITH
HEIGHT WILL OCCUR OFF THE DECK THAT COULD LEND TO ROTATION AND A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED CELLS...BUT THINK THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW.
MODERATE TO HIGH SWIM RISK TODAY... EXPECT IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN
TODAY WITH WSW WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY,
RUNNING 10-15KTS OR PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE. (WINDS LOOK TO TURN MORE
NW LATER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE YOOP.) WIND GUSTS LARGELY RUNNING
BETWEEN 20-30KTS TODAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE SIGNALS THE LLJ SHOULD RAMP
UP ABOVE 40KTS INTO THIS MORNING AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS DOES
HAVE ME A BIT WORRIED WE COULD END UP WITH WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS OR
PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT
THE TRICK IS GETTING THAT TO ACTUALLY MIX DOWN (THUNDERSTORM
CONVECTION NOTWITHSTANDING), GIVEN ITS STRENGTH MAY LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900MB. EITHER
WAY...NOT A GREAT DAY TO BE IN THE WATER. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5-
10KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME MODERATE SWIM
RISKS IN PLAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE W/NW FETCH WILL AID IN ENHANCING
WAVE HEIGHTS.
SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 0C 850MB ISOTHERM
SWINGING THROUGH, EXPECT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S (WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF IT STAYS COOLER ACROSS THE YOOP AND PARTS OF
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INSTABILITY
CU/STRATOCU DECK AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS TO FORM)...SIGNALING LOW
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW, WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING AND RETURN FLOW
STARTING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THINK PARTS OF THE AREA COULD
BE SPARED BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH COLDER...THOUGH STILL WONDER ABOUT
SOME OF OUR INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN COLD SPOTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
EAST OF I-75, MANAGING TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IF WINDS DIMINISH
MORE THAN EXPECTED. THIS IDEA COULD HANG ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IF THE
NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY ENDS UP SLOWER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
SUGGEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WEAK FRONT WILL DRIVE SOME HIGHER BASED CUMULUS INTO THE REGION
TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE INCREASING CLOUDS, WITH
CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS
MORNING TARGETING KPLN, WITH THESE SHOWERS SLOWLY SETTLING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS LOW.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES, WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM
THESE SHOWERS WITH THIS TAF CYCLE...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR AND
ONLY VICINITY THUNDER MENTION. OF COURSE, ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, DECREASING IN SPEED
THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-095-
096-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ322.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...MSB
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