057
FXUS63 KAPX 111136
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
636 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AS SYSTEM EXITS, RESULTING IN
A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW NOW THROUGH MID MORNING FOR SOME SPOTS
- BUILDING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS REACHING UP
TO 30 TO 40 MPH. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY IN OPEN
AREAS
- A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN
UPPER AND SNOW BELT AREAS IN NORTHERN LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY
- NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, BRINING ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN ACCUMULATING
SNOW
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
CURRENTLY A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PIVOTING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. INITIAL SNOW REPORTS FROM YESTERDAY
INDICATE THAT GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO 7 INCHES FELL, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT, NORTHERN LAKE HURON, AND
SNOW BELT AREAS. THIS COULD CHANGE, AS THESE ARE ONLY INTIAL
REPORTS.
THIS MORNING, A W/E ORIENTATED SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR M-72 IS
CONTINUING SOUTHWARD AS FORCING ON THE SOUTH SIDE WEAKENS AND
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN BUILD IN TO THE
NORTH. AREAS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL EMBEDDED IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, HOWEVER FORCING ALOFT HAS EXITED
AND LEAVES THE WORK TO BE DONE BY LOW LEVEL AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUING TO SUPPLY ENOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, BUT BY
SUNRISE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE LEFT THE AREA. LL TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE SUCH TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO AID IN CONTINUING THE LIGHT SNOW UNTIL MID MORNING. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH PEAKING AROUND THE LATE
MORNING HOURS FOR WESTERN AREAS AND MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR EASTERN AREAS. THESE WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW (ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS).
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY HAS A WEAK WARM SECTOR THAT REACHES DOWN TO
NORTHERN MI AND TURNS SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW RETURNS TO
EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS NORTH OF M-72 IN NORTHERN LOWER LATER
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THERE WILL BE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TO ACCOMMODATE THE PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO DEFINE THE SURFACE
FEATURES MORE AS THEY REACH NORTHERN MI, FORCING WILL REMAIN ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIT MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE THAT UP TO AN INCH IS DROPPED IN SOME SNOW
BELT LOCATIONS OF NW LOWER BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HONE IN ON THIS
ORIGINATING AS AN ALREADY ROBUST SURFACE CYCLONE WHILE IN CAN (~997
MB SURFACE LOW). DUE TO THIS A WARM SECTOR (ABOVE FREEZING) REACHES
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
HIGH 30S (EVEN 40S) WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT
OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SPOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY (COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER
EASTERN UPPER). LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE CYCLONE
TRACKS TO THE EAST OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND USHERS IN COLDER AIR
AND LIKELY ACCUMULATING SNOW.
MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER INTERSECTING
EITHER NORTHERN LOWER OR UPPER TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS IT CONTINUES ON
ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD. VERY FEW HAVE IT FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH DOES
EXPLAIN SOME OF THE SNOW AMOUNT VARIATION. IF THE LOW IS TOO FAR
NORTH, WE WILL MISS OUT ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH IT
FOCUSING MORE IN THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS. IF ITS CLOSER, THAT
HELPS INCREASE THOSE TOTALS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
LEFTOVER -SN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND EXIT NORTHERN MI THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. BRISK NNW/NW WINDS MAY MAINTAIN
SPORADIC MVFR VSBYS IN BLSN TODAY. WINDS WEAKEN INTO THIS
EVENING, THEN BACK W TO WSW AND INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ016-022>024-028>030-034>036-086>088-097-098.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ017-
018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>348.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page