827
FXUS63 KAPX 120606
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
206 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SHOWERS TRY TO LEAK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- STOUT SYSTEM TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
SFC BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE E UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. SFC WIND PATTERN TODAY
WILL BE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER, AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT THOUGH SO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST DAKOTAS AND MN. FEW SHOWERS
TODAY WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, CLOSER TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER, SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND THE
BETTER WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION. LOW END INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY
AS WELL, AND THUS, THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/CONVECTION OUT
THERE, BUT SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS SAY IT STAYS TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE CANADIAN SHIELD. STILL WORTH WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY AS OTHER
PIECES OF GUIDANCE DO DROP SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER, ACROSS THE E UP. EITHER WAY, NOT A HUGE DEAL AND
PRECIPITATION MAKER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN
TODAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE. POTENTIAL FOR 70S AND LOW 80S, WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ECLIPSE.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONSEQUENTLY, SWATH OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
TUESDAY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALL THAT BEING SAID, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND JUST EAST OF THE MAIN VORT MAX WHICH IS PROGGED
TO BE ~TIP OF THE MITT AND NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MI WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHEST THETA E POOLS.
THIS COULD EVEN OUT THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION TO SOME EXTENT, OR
SPREAD SOME OF THE RAINS FARTHER SOUTH. SOME AREAS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH, MAYBE MORE IN THE
SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED AREAS. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE LOVELY 70S TO AN END, WITH HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK, SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH ENERGY
RIDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF CANADA, DIVING DOWN INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SFC RESPONSE WILL BE
FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
WELL. LIFT AND CONVERGENCE FROM THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SHOWERS, PERHAPS STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN, ACROSS NORTHERN MI LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO OUR EAST, AND AS
SUCH, SO WILL THE SFC RESPONSE. WITH A STOUT 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE
FILLING IN BEHIND THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY. THE LAST COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
COLD ADVECTION, AS YOU'D EXPECT FROM A FAST MOVING, PRETTY DEEP
UPPER LOW MOVING DOWN FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE INTO THE LOW 50S AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUICK
RECOVERY TEMPERATURE WISE THOUGH AS HEIGHTS RISE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LOWER CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING JUST TO THE EAST OF
ANJ/CIU. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO GROW, WITH LOW-END MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AT CIU MONDAY MORNING, AND LOW-END VFR CIGS FOR
PLN/APN. ALL THREE OF THESE SITES WILL SEE IFR CIGS DEVELOP
MONDAY EVENING. TVC/MBL SHOULD BE VFR THIS TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY BREEZES TODAY CIU/PLN/APN, SOUTHERLY AT TVC/MBL. LLWS
FOR PART OF THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CIU/PLN/MBL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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