597
FXUS63 KAPX 291841
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
241 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURES, AND SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
PATTERN / FORECAST SYNOPSIS:
LARGE SCALE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES, WITH A WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND
ACTIVELY CLOSING OFF. THIS LEAVES NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN IN THE GRIP OF A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME, AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD COINCIDING
WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES AND A BROAD 1017MB AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH THE OZARKS. WITH THIS
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD, SUBSIDENCE AND LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE TENDENCIES OUTSIDE OF
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALREADY
SEEING THE BUDDING STAGES OF THE NEXT WAVE SET TO CREST THE RIDGE
AXIS AFTER MONSOONAL CONVECTION MANIFESTS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN INTO WY / ID.
ANTICIPATION IS THAT THIS WAVE COMES WITH A MODEST CONVECTIVE CHARGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CORN BELT THURSDAY. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES,
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND SET TO HAVE BEEN INGESTED BY
BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. RESULT WILL BE A TURN
OF FLOW TO MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH, THE
APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY BE FORCED A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS MORE
SOUTHERLY TURN WITH THIS ENSUING WAVE TO FOCUS ANY VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE RESPONSES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, AND THUS LIMITING DEEPER
MOISTURE (WIDESPREAD 70+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS) FROM REACHING THE
REGION. NONETHELESS, WITH RETURN FLOW PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE, ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF 500MB HEIGHT RISES TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE
PERHAPS HINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHING SOME TIME TOWARD THE END
OF OR PERHAPS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
DETAILS:
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY; A TOUCH MORE HUMID THURSDAY: SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REALLY PUTS A LID ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL, ASIDE
FROM SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS PEAK IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-65 RANGE
TONIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER, SUBTLE MOISTURE
PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WAVE MAY TRY TO START LEAKING
INTO THE REGION, WHICH MAY FORCE DEWPOINTS TO APPROACH 60 DURING THE
DAY, ADDING A TOUCH MORE NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD NONETHELESS ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY AT THE SURFACE
WITH CONTINUED EFFICIENT MIXING, RANGING 80 TO 88. FOR THE TIME
BEING, THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US CAPPED, BUT
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW STRONG THE CAP IS. LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY BE
ACTIVE, SO SUPPOSE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST LOWER; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE ISN'T EXACTLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
THE IDEA WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST./. WILL NOTE INCREASING SREF POP TRENDS, SO
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE A SHOWER OR TWO GETS ADDED INTO THE NEXT FORECAST
CYCLE OR TWO. A TOUCH MORE WARMTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT PROBABLY SETTLING INTO THE LOW-TO-
UPPER 60S FOR MOST... PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S IN THE INTERIOR TERRAIN
OF NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE RETURN FLOW WILL BE WEAKEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES: NEXT WAVE SET TO APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES.
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY DIVE IN THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE WILL BE
DETRIMENTAL TO US SEEING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARAMETERS FAVOR AREAS JUST
SW OF THE GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS, THE INTRUSION OF MOISTURE AND
SUBTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
MESOSCALE DRIVEN SHENANIGANS UP YONDER... WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY, MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE BREEZE GENERATED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY BEFORE ANY STRATIFORM
/ WEAKER CONVECTIVE RAINS BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A WIDESPREAD WASHOUT ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH PLENTY OF DRY TIME INTO SATURDAY, BUT ENOUGH TO INCONVENIENCE
SUMMER LEISURE ACTIVITIES AT TIMES. AGAIN, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS... AND THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY
LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT. GENUINELY WOULD
NOT SURPRISE ME IF SOME AREAS DIDN'T RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE, WE LOOK TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY, WITH THE
NEXT RAIN CHANCE PERHAPS RETURNING AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
PATTERN, OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, TAPERING AFTER SUNSET. NO
CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FROM A
CUMULUS DECK THAT SHOULD STAY 5KFT OR HIGHER, INITIALLY FAVORING
APN AND CIU BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
MORNING / AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY INTO
THURSDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...HAD
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