850
FXUS63 KAPX 052033
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TIMES OF HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MID WEEK SYSTEM
WILL RETURN WINTRY CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
CURRENTLY SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF M-72. A DECK OF LOW STRATUS HERE CONTINUES TO CREEP
NORTHWARD TODAY. ALTHOUGH ITS BATTLING THE MIXING DUE TO
SUNSHINE TO THE NORTH, LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF
NORTHERN MI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL MOVE IN UNDER THIS TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. TIMES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN MIDDAY FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE CYCLONE APPROACHES AND TRACKS THROUGH THE STATE
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A QUICK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE
NORTH (IN SOUTHERN CAN), BRINING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP
BACK TO EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE STORM TRACK OVER SOUTHERN
CAN REMAINS ACTIVE. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN MONDAY (AS
MUCH AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOMETIME TUESDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW
MIDWEEK (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY). COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
HEAVY RAIN ON SNOW: DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OVER MI WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.30" LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER NORTHERN MI DURING THIS TIME, AS WELL
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN
OVER NORTHERN MI FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STARTING
FRIDAY PM AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AM. SOUNDING TRACES
DEPICT DEEP MOISTURE, INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION.. IN WHICH THERE WILL BE AROUND 200 TO 700
J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, PEAKING DURING THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS. AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OF SFC TO 3KM SHEAR EXISTS AS WELL
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SO WITH THIS POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED CONVECTION, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY TO FALL.
THESE CELLS WILL BE MOVING, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING THAT OCCURS. WITH A CURRENT SNOWPACK OF AROUND 5 TO 15
INCHES THIS POINTS TO A RISK OF FLOODING IN LOW SPOTS AND ALONG
AREA RIVERS. THE MOST LIKELY TRACES OF THE HEFS (25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES) PLACES THE MANISTEE, BOARDMAN, AND AU SABLE RIVERS
IN ACTION STAGE; WITH THE MANISTEE'S MOST LIKELY TRACES EVEN
CREEPING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER NW LOWER, HOWEVER
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS (DUE TO UNRESOLVED TRAINING) COULD
RESULT IN THOSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ALONG OTHER RIVERS AND
LOW SPOTS (NOT JUST NW LOWER).
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS - LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO +1.50"
NW LOWER: 0.5" TO 1.0"
NE LOWER: 0.25" TO 0.6"
EASTERN UPPER: 0.50 TO 0.90"
THUNDERSTORMS: WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR, THERE ARE ALSO MARGINAL RISKS FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
WITH THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE, SOUNDING TRACES DO FAVOR MORE HEAVY
RAIN VS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.. BUT SOME SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY RIGHT IN THE SWEET SPOT OF THE HGZ
(HAIL GROWTH ZONE). THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP
THOSE HYDROMETEORS LOFTED, MEANING A STORM OR TWO COULD SEE THE
LOW END OF SEVERE HAIL (UP TO 1 INCH). A STRONG WARM NOSE WILL
BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DAMAGING WINDS OUT OF MOST
STORMS.. BUT A STORM OR TWO COULD SEE THOSE DAMAGING WINDS
REACH THE SURFACE. WITH THE STRONGER SHEAR (SFC - 1KM IS UP TO
35KTS), NON ZERO CHANCES EXIST FOR TORNADOS AS WELL. THIS
CHANCES OF THIS THREAT REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE VERY POOR NEAR
SURFACE LAPSE RATES WITH THE WARM NOSE PRESENT. HOWEVER STORMS
WITH A TOR OR TWO COULD ORIGINATE OVER SW MI AND MOVE INTO THE
FAR SW PARTS OF THE CWA. THE MOST FREQUENT THREAT WITH STORMS
WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN, TALKED ABOUT ABOVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY, CIGS IN
THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BR/FG A CONCERN AS WELL
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HINTING AT INTERIOR LOCATIONS HAVING
THE BEST POTENTIAL. EAST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SUBTLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE
LATER ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JLD
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