010
FXUS63 KAPX 290347
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MI.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK; POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SITS DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHERN MI LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION TOMORROW THROUGH
EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVES AROUND
THIS EVENING AS A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK WARM ADVECTION TREKS ACROSS NORTHERN MI, LIKELY BRINGING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA. SPRING-LIKE
WARMTH BUILDS IN TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, AND AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: INITIAL FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND
INCOMING AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF SNOW CHANCES.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW UPSTREAM NEAR DULUTH TO
NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RACE EAST
AND FILL IN SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO ARRIVING INTO PRIMARILY THE EASTERN
U.P. AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER THIS EVENING. THIS BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW
MAY FALL BRIEFLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT LATEST
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW ACCUMULATION.
PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BRIDGE GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. SOUTH
OF THE BRIDGE, SUNDAY'S HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S CLIMB INTO
THE 60S FOR SOME ON MONDAY/TUESDAY (MOST LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-
72). PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING, WITH CHANCES
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN, EVEN WITH SOME THUNDER CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY. PERHAPS A ROGUE STRONGER STORM AS WELL,
HINTED AT BY SPC'S LATEST D3 OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL RISK NOSING
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULDN'T BE ALL
TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THIS RISK AREA INCLUDE A LARGER PORTION OF
NORTHERN LOWER ON TUESDAY GIVEN A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THAT SAID, BY LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME WINTRY MIXED
PRECIP MAY REAR ITS HEAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P., WITH AT
LEAST LOW PROBS FOR SOME MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION AND RELATED TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
BEYOND THIS SYTEM, THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL,
ALBEIT COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF INCLEMENT WEATHER
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY), LOW CONFIDENCE
EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE
AND RESULTANT PRECIP TYPE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SOME FOG WITH IFR OR LOWER VISBYS EXPECTED THRU 9-12Z, ESP FOR CIU;
LESS CERTAINTY IN FOG FOR REST OF AREA, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE, ESP FOR
PLN AND MBL. WINDS COULD REMAIN LIGHT/VRB LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED,
BUT EXPECT AN OVERALL TREND TO S/SW WITH TIME BY MORNING...EXCEPT
PLN/CIU COULD STAY VRB OR SLIGHTLY SE NEAR/ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT...AND FOG/IFR CONDITIONS COULD HANG ON UP THERE LONGER INTO
THE DAY; BETTER CHANCES OF RASN UP THIS WAY AFTER 20Z OR SO, AND ESP
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH OF FRONT, EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND OR ABOVE 5KFT AND S/SW WINDS 10-15KTS, GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 20-30KTS. NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT
NEAR TVC/PLN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND ALSO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SNOWMELT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
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