768
FXUS63 KAPX 231106
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
606 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES BUILD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
-CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
-OVERALL QUIET AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ONTARIO
PENINSULA WILL BREAK DOWN, MOVING WHATEVER ENERGY REMAINS INTO THE
NOR'EASTER CURRENTLY RIDING UP THE EAST COAST. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TODAY, RESULTING IN CP
AIR RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SUPPORTS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CWA. CHANCES OF SNOWFALL
RETURN THIS TUESDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN.
LATEST ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE MIDLEVEL JET MAXIMA OVER THE U.S.
BREAKING DOWN INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN, CAUSING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MILD
SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF ENERGY TRACK OVER THE NORTHWOODS. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT TIMES, BUT NO LARGE
SCALE OR IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
(AFTER TUESDAY).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
-SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES BUILD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PULL CANADIAN AIR FROM THE
NORTH TODAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT,
WIDESPREAD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS BEFORE DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS/NEAR
ZERO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, MEANING OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL SOLELY FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION RATHER THAN
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES.
-CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAIN POSSIBLE... LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FASTER TRACKING SYSTEM
WHICH IS PRETTY CONDUCIVE OF A RUN-OF-THE-MILL CLIPPER. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT LINE OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN SOMEWHAT IDEAL, FEATURING A SURGE OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOW
AND MIDLEVEL'S, COMBINED WITH DECENT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT COULD
DRIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF M-72. HOWEVER,
WAA-DRIVEN SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S (KTS) MAY SUPPORT
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND HURON, PUSHING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RANGE OF WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA. IN PARTICULAR ALONG US-2 WHERE IT IS SUSCEPTIBLE
TO HEAVY DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW.
-OVERALL QUIET AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK... PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP REMAIN LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY SHIFT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE KEEPS ENERGY SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER CLIPPER RIDING
ACROSS CANADA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR, EXTENDING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO
DEPICT IMPACTS AT THIS MOMENT AS MILD LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
INTRODUCE CONCERNS FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP, BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY STARVED AND WILL
KEEP QPF LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AS -SHSN LINGER AS WELL.
POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, SO WILL LIKELY
SEE AN INCONSISTENT FLIPPING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY N TO NNW WINDS PREVAIL,
SOMETIMES BREACHING 20KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS TAPER AND CIGS AGAIN
LIKELY HOVER LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR. WINDS FLIP E AT CIU
LATE AND SSE TO S ELSEWHERE, BUT SET TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...HAD
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