530
FXUS63 KAPX 140350
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1150 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT.
- COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO LOOKS TO LARGELY
CHURN IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED JET MAX OVERHEAD WILL WORK EAST TONIGHT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY WITH FAVORABLE ASCENT ALOFT.
RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO START THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK, BUT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO SET IN FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH.
FORECAST DETAILS:
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AS
WELL AS CONTINUED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER -- PARTICULARLY
NEAR M-32/M-72 EAST OF I-75. MAINLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICE AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING A MORE
FAVORABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD (LOW 60S TDS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA)
SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO AROUND 1,000 J/KG IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY, STRONG SHEAR WILL BE OVERLAPPING SAID
BUOYANCY (0-6KM SHEAR ~60KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR ~45KTS). DESPITE LESS
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS, THIS MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL PROFILE AS EVIDENCED BY NEAR TERM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED HEIGHTENED SEVERE THREAT IN THE
CORRIDOR MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
MIXED-LAYER LCLS/CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
HIGH (AROUND 1,500M), SUBTLE-BUT-EXISTANT LOW-LEVEL VEERING WOULD
RESULT IN FAVORABLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY INGESTION FOR ANY RIGHT-
MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP -- LEADING TO A TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY DOMINANT STORMS. THAT SAID, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STRONG STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY WORKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST, LEAVING DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
FOR MOST OF THE NORTHWOODS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF ON MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING HEADING INTO
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL TROUGHING SLIDES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. ASIDE FROM RAIN CHANCES, THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOW/MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S
WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR PRODUCING CIGS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT AND GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING. WINDS BECOMING A
BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB
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