938
FXUS63 KAPX 081151
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
651 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
- A BIT COOLER WITH PERHAPS MORE SNOW CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIRMASS REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PATCHY FOG, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE
AREAS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, FOG SHOULD LESSEN, BUT MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S, WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER. CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING, THE LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN TO REACH SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, THOUGH ANY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THERMAL
PROFILE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES,
WITH FORECAST LOW PLACEMENT FAVORING MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
RESIDING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT ABOVE FREEZING, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AROUND 50 DEGREES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONNECTION. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS RAINFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING OVER A HALF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL, MILD TEMPERATURES, AND ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE RAPID SNOWMELT AND ENHANCED RUNOFF...
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EXISTING SNOWPACK AND ICY SECONDARY
ROADS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT, THOUGH THE ABSENCE OF
COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL KEEP READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AND CONTINUE
ONGOING SNOWMELT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FORECAST ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION REMAINS CLOSELY TIED TO THE
DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY AND WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM FORCING LIFTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD/ DISAGREEMENT ON LOW TRACK AN INTENSITY, BUT SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL OR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MI LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... WITH SUGGESTED
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE POTENTIALLY INTRODUCING
A LAKE ENHANCED COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND COOLER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY RETURNING TO THE 20S.
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING APPEARS POISED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PREVAILING
FLOW LOOKING TO FAVOR OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
LOW STRATUS/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON -- LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SHORT
WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES LATER TODAY. TVC AND MBL
HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS
RETURN TONIGHT. DROPS TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND FG/BR WITH MELTING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ341-
342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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