299
FXUS63 KAPX 251023
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER AS WEAK COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
- BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURN WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT A LINE OF SCATTERED WEAK
RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA DECAYING OVER CENTRAL LK MI THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ALOFT MOVING UP AND OVER AN UPPER RIDGE (AXIS IS
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MI AND LK HURON). THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH IN CAN IS PUSHING AGAINST THIS UPPER RIDGE, SLOWLY
TRENDING HEIGHTS DOWN OVER MI THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND THE WASHED OUT/WEAKENING BOUNDARY ALOFT IS
RESULTING IN THESE WEAKENING SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FROM THESE AS THIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGING OVER MI TODAY.
ALTHOUGH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER NORTHERN MI TODAY,
VERY LITTLE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. THE UPPER WAVE IN CAN
TRACKS EAST, WHICH WILL ONLY ASSIST IN 30KTS OF A SOUTHWEST LLJ
OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT AROUND MIDDAY.
THIS PAIRED WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL YIELD AREAS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN STARTING AROUND MID MORNING FOR
EASTERN UPPER. OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AS THESE FEATURES ARE SLOW TO PROGRESS AND CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST CAM GUIDANCE AGREES IN A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN TOTAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
BY LATE TODAY. A WINDOW OF WEAK INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE MIDDAY,
AND COULD LEAD TO AN EMBEDDED SHOWER OR TWO. LOW TO NO CHANCES
FOR THUNDER. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED WAA WILL BE
PRESENT OVER NORTHERN LOWER, WHILE CLOUDS AND A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.. WHICH LEADS TO A 15 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S OVER EASTERN UPPER, WHILE
PARTS OF NE LOWER SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S THANKS TO
SOME LIGHT DOWN SLOPING AND THAT WAA.
AS THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY SEEPS SOUTHWARD LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE SEEN ALONG IT OVER NORTHERN LOWER. BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME
RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32, REACHING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. FORECASTED RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN AT A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST FOR NORTHERN LOWER.
CLOUD COVER PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S. A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST OVER ONTARIO CAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TURNING WINDS
EAST AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN TO MI MID WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
RIDING UP AND OVER IT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WAA WILL
RETURN MILD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN MI FOR MID WEEK. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE SYSTEM RETURNING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHERN MI FOR LATE IN THE WORKWEEK,
HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO REMAIN SPREAD ON RAIN AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AOA 10 KFT. SW WINDS OF 5 TO
10KTS WITH G15KTS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 8 TO 11KTS WITH G15 TO
G20KTS BY 14Z. -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KCIU FROM
16Z THROUGH 22Z. VERY LOW CHANCES FOR -SHRA AT OTHER TERMINALS
AS A WEAK FROPA TRACKS FROM NW TO SE TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
N/NW AND WEAKEN BY 00Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR FG/BR
IMPACTS AFTER 06Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-
342.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...ELD
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