837  
FXUS63 KAPX 231439  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019  
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO  
ROTATION OUR OF S LOWER. A RELATIVELY CHILLY AIR MASS SO FAR THIS  
SEASON, AS THE LOWS THIS MORNING, IN SOME LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO  
THE MID 30S. THE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, HAS BURNED  
OFF, AND MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WITH IT. MAIN CLOUD MASS THAT  
HAS BEEN MOVING INTO N LOWER FROM E UPPER THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN  
TO THIN OUT AS THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN.  
HOWEVER, FAIR WEATHER CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.  
 
THE FORECAST, SO FAR, HAS BEEN GOOD, SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED, OTHER  
THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AS THE CLOUDS MIX/DEVELOP OVER THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019  
 
IMPACTFUL WEATHER: MINIMAL/NONE.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL  
RIDGING AND SFC HIGHER PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY BACK THROUGH THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FORCING ACROSS NRN  
MICHIGAN WAS NEGLIGIBLE/NIL WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS  
AROUND. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WAS BRINGING H8 TEMPS OF 6-8C OVER THE  
REGION, COOL ENOUGH FOR 13-15C DELTA-T'S, BUT NOTHING ON RADAR ATTM.  
THE AIR MASS ON LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY-LOOKING, WHICH MAY BE  
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT.  
 
THE MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD THROUGH  
TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN WEATHER. OUTSIDE  
OF THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING, NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER  
THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.  
THE ONLY CLOUDS FORESEEN BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TYPICAL CUMULUS,  
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WITH TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING INTO THROUGH THE 40S, WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOLER LOW  
LYING AREAS SNEAKING INTO THE UPPER 30S. PRETTY QUIET.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, UPPER-LEVEL  
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REBOUNDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  
BEFORE A RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.  
OVERALL, QUIET AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SLOWLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.  
 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE DRIFT OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPSTREAM/INCOMING COLD  
FRONT NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY ADVANCE AS FAR AS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY,  
THUS ALLOWING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING A BIT ON SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID  
70S BEFORE CLIMBING SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS  
VARYING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY  
MONDAY BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF  
THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING  
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING  
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN  
AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT REGARDING DETAILED  
TIMING, PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DETAILS, BUT UNFAVORABLE  
DIURNAL TIMING PREVENTS A MENTION OF THUNDER, AT LEAST FOR NOW  
(WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS).  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019  
 
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE  
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AND COOL  
NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS  
THAT MAY POP UP THROUGH DAYBREAK IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND  
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN, OTHERWISE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS  
AND PRECIP-FREE VFR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AM  
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2019  
 
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES INTO  
SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING EAST. THE HIGH  
PRESSURE THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH WINDS INCREASING  
AND TURNING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NO  
HEADLINES FORESEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE  
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS MORNING, NO PRECIPITATION  
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE  
IN CHECK.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JL  
NEAR TERM...SMD  
SHORT TERM...MG  
LONG TERM...MG  
AVIATION...SMD  
MARINE...SMD  
 
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