960
FXUS63 KAPX 132154
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
554 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE CLOUDS NORTH/LESS CLOUDS SOUTH TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
- MID SEPTEMBER WARM SPELL CONTINUES SUNDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LIKELY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA TO START THIS WEEKEND; NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW EMANATES FROM A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC...EXTENDS NORTH AROUND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN TERRITORIES...THEN DIPS AROUND AN UPPER LOW EAST
OF HUDSON BAY. SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW COMES AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...WITH A NARROW BUT AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS (THAT EXTENDS NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN BRANCH
RIDGE SEPARATED BY A COL REGION)...AND A NARROW TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. PART OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW EAST OF HUDSON BAY IS AN ELONGATED PV FILAMENT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BEHIND WHICH DRIER AIR IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER LAKES (AT LEAST HIGHER UP...STILL A GOOD
BIT OF ABSOLUTE MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 850MB). AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT
LAKES...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.
PV ANOMALY/SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SLOW/BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LAKE HURON SUNDAY. NO REAL WIND SHIFT WILL
EXIST WITH THIS FEATURE BY SUNDAY BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
FINGERPRINT IN SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND EXPAND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MORE CLOUDS NORTH/LESS CLOUDS SOUTH TONIGHT/SUNDAY: WILL BE WATCHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT MID AFTERNOON...
AS IT SINKS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
MIXING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE WILL STILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AS MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS HIGHER UP. SO THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING FROM
THE STRAITS NORTH...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER SOUTH. SOME INDICATIONS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT INTO CU DECK THOUGH
IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME. WILL MENTION SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID SEPTEMBER WARM SPELL CONTINUES SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY
COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON AND MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WILL SET UP AN EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN LOWER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY AROUND DRUMMOND ISLAND
WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DAYS 2-3 (MONDAY-TUESDAY): LONG-ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS IN THE VICINITY OF 590DAM WOULD BE NEARLY A
+2 SIGMA STANDARDIZED ANOMALY FOR MID SEPTEMBER. OVERALL PATTERN
BECOMING A BIT MORE REX BLOCK LOOKING AS LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/ SOUTHEAST COAST GET CUT OFF AND CAUGHT BENEATH THE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEK...EXPANDING SOUTH INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE IDEA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THIS
SPACE YESTERDAY: TUESDAY RECORDS RANGE FROM 86 (ANJ) TO 91 (TVC)
BOTH SET JUST LAST YEAR. DON'T SEE THOSE BEING IN JEOPARDY RIGHT
NOW.
DAYS 4-5 (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY): GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MIDWEEK BETWEEN TROUGHS ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER STILL IN THE OFFING FOR BOTH DAYS; ALSO STILL
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHERN LOWER COULD USE SOME PRECIPITATION.
DAYS 6-7 OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SATURDAY): HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS TROUGH/UPPER LOW MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO MICHIGAN
TO END THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE BIG WARM UP AND A
RETURN TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL...THOUGH THERE IS A PRETTY BIG
SPREAD IN PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE STARTING FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST TREND WILL BE COOLER BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN BY HOW MUCH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR MORE MVFR TO IFR PRODUCING
FOG/MIST AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS OTHER THAN KTVC. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL EXTENT AND DURATION, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO USE TEMPO WORDING TO CONVEY THESE IMPACTS. ANY
FOG/MIST AND STRATUS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE,
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES SUNDAY. LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MSB
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