074
FXUS63 KAPX 201050
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES. AN OMEGA-ISH BLOCK, ANCHORED BY UPPER LOWS OFF
THE EAST COAST, AND MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST, WILL PROMOTE
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
THERE IS AN ACTUAL SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM, CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LAKES WED AFTERNOON. ITS EVENTUAL FATE IS BE
SHEARED OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO
BROADER EAST COAST TROFFING.
THE SHORTWAVE WED AFTERNOON DOES PROVIDE A REASONABLE SHOT OF
DPVA FORCING IN NORTHERN AREAS, AND ARRIVES AT A FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY. BUT IT HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKING TO SEE THE STRAITS AREA AND THE EASTERN UP SEE
A STRAY SHOWER WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BUT THAT CHANCES IS
10 PERCENT OR LESS, AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WE WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOVING THRU WED,
ESPECIALLY AGAIN IN THE NORTH. BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE AS WARM
OR WARMER THAN TODAY, THANKS TO A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THAT FRONT WILL
TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE MOBILE THIS WEEKEND. BUT
THE UPPER TROF PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ONLY
SERVES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO TREND A BIT WARMER AGAIN MOVING THRU THE
WEEKEND. THE INCREASINGLY MOBILE/ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES HARDER TO GET A FIRM GRASP OF NEXT WEEK, BUT PLENTY OF
GUIDANCE BRINGS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION, AND
SHARPLY COLDER WX BY TUESDAY (EVEN WITH UNIMPRESSIVE POPS).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ONLY AVIATION ISSUE IS FOG, BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. MBL HAS BEEN THE ONLY PROBLEM CHILD THIS MORNING,
AND WILL SEE RELATIVELY QUICK IMPROVEMENT (BY 14Z). THINK WE
WILL HAVE PROBLEM SPOTS LATE TONIGHT, AS A DEVELOPING E TO SE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SPREADS COOLER/MOISTENED AIR FROM OFF LK
HURON. HAVE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT EVERYWHERE BUT
TVC. LIGHT WINDS, EXCEPT AN EASTERLY BREEZE AT APN THIS
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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