684
FXUS63 KAPX 052339
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED FROM WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, MID-
MS VALLEY, AND OZARKS. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME
DISPLACED EAST TONIGHT WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOCUS TURNS TO WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES COMMENCE WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY
SET TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
EVENTUALLY CROSSING NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
GROWING POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF SHOWERS/STORMS, INCLUDING A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID-80S BEFORE WARMING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. NOT
NEARLY AS HUMID AS IT'S BEEN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK WITH
DAYTIME TDS LARGELY SPANNING THE 50S.
DEEPER BEGINS TO RETURN LATER TUESDAY, AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING, LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST BY
LATER WEDNESDAY / WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PWS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO 1.75"+
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A MORE HUMID/MUGGY FEEL AS
TDS CREEP BACK INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES MAY
INITIALLY BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
U.P., SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY -
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE A GLARING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AHEAD OF/ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DOES APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN
THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND AFOREMENTIONED
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE (PWS UP TO +2 SD ABOVE THE 30-YEAR CFSR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN CENTERED AROUND JULY 8TH). WPC IS CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND THE EASTERN U.P. IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
LONGER RANGE ENS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE TREND BACK TO DRIER, COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR. MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT, AS WINDS GO
LIGHT. BUT THAT CHANCE IS FOR NOW TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. SOME VFR
CUMULUS ON MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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