502
FXUS63 KAPX 170148
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
948 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
COOL WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES, WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS IN BOTH PENINSULAS. 00Z APX SOUNDING (850MB TEMP OF
+1C) WAS PRETTY MOIST ALL THE WAY TO THE TROPOPAUSE, WITH
CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE PRESENT THEN YOUR STANDARD PURE-LAKE-
EFFECT SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO EXIT
THE REGION, AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AWAY
FROM LK HURON. CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING IN THE MBL-TVC AREAS OF NW
LOWER MI. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MI, WITH LAKE PROCESSES CONTRIBUTING TO CLOUDS
HANGING ON LONGEST NEAR/NORTH OF M-32 (INCLUDING EASTERN UPPER
MI). RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY SOUTH OF M-32, BUT ONLY
SOMEWHAT (AND GRADUALLY) TO THE NORTH.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
..ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE IS EXPECTED.
MORE OF A FALL LIKE FEEL OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MEANTIME, BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAG COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AS A RESULT AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON
INTO TONIGHT. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT BRISK WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO THE LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC AND A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS AREA. THIS WILL
PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25MPH.
850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2C AND -1C WILL PRODUCE
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AS LAKE TEMPERATURES SEEM
TO BE RUNNING AROUND 13-15C. THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME LOCALES WILL SEE THE MOST CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH
NOT LOOKING AT TOO MUCH IN THE FORM OF QPF AMOUNTS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE VERY MARGINAL. THE MOST "RIGOROUS" SHOWERS
SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AS CELLS
BECOME THE MOST CELLULAR. THE WINDS DO BACK A BIT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST SUNDAY, AS WILL THE LOCATIONS OF THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION. THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT WILL PROBABLY BE LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER
TEXAS BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE
YET A COUPLE MORE NICE FALL DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY REACHING TO NEAR 70 ONCE
AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN'S WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FROM A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TREKKING TO THE NORTHWEST,
PUTTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN FIRST IN IT'S WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THEN VEERING WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING COOLER AIR ON THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
SEEING 70 DEGREES AND MAY EVEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH THE COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
MAINLY VFR.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MI. THESE WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT PLN AND APN. NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
THOUGH. OTHERWISE VFR, WITH IMPROVING CIGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY W TO NW WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS AND CHOPPY WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MEANWHILE, EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...AS
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