433
FXUS63 KAPX 010737
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
337 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES AND STRONG EAST WINDS
THURSDAY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
OVER PARTS OF NORTHER LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES
WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY, CURBING ICE IMPACTS.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHT
THREATS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL THREATS FOR HAIL
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY, WITH COLDER AIR
AND BRIEF SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY
- ANOTHER SYSTEM LIKELY RETURNING WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING. A BAROCLINIC
LEAF IS SEEN DOWNSTREAM, WHICH IS SPILLING AROUND 0.5" TO 0.6" PWATS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME, A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ALL ALONG THE GULF STATES.
THIS IS TRANSPORTING LOWER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, UP TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NEAR NORTHERN MI, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH ARE GRADUALLY BRINING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FROM CAN. AREAS OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND NORTHERN LOWER, AS
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE HANGS NEAR THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO CAN WILL
DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MOST END OF
THE HUDSON BAY, BECOMING 1037MB AT ITS CENTER. THIS DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ZOOMING BACK OUT, TODAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS,
THE CO LEE SIDE LOW STRENGTHENS. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS, AS WELL AS EXISTING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WILL RESULT IN DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL OVERRUN THE COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS NEAR
THE SURFACE (AROUND 2-3 KFT AND BELOW). A VERY DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MI. SOME
JET DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MI DURING THIS TIME, AND COULD
RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
850MB DRY LAYER.. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE 0C 850 MB LINE BOUNCING
AROUND A LITTLE AS WETBULBS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. A FEW SNOW FLAKES
CAN'T BE RULED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OUT
WITH THIS LOGIC, WITH LIGHT SLEET FOR AREAS SOUTH. ALL IN ALL, AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY IT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LIGHT AS IT HAS TO OVERCOME THIS DRIER AIRMASS (WHICH GETS DRIER THE
MORE ONE TRAVELS EAST).
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER THURSDAY
MORNING, BETTER JET FORCING MOVES OVER THE STATE AND BRINGS SOME
MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION WITH IT. BY THIS TIME, THE SURFACE LOW AND
SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAIN OVER MO/IA AND IL/IN RESPECTIVELY. WITH
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING, EAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH. WITH THIS REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR, MOST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS OF ALONG AND NORTH
OF M-32 REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE DURING THIS WAVE OF
MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SEEN OVER
THESE AREAS LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ICE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY TO NAIL DOWN DUE TO A
DECENT SPREAD IN QPF. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
FLAT ICE IS UNLIKELY AND CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOCALIZED. THE ONE
EXCEPTION BEING NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES, THEN ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD EXCEED A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE WILL LIKELY
SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE, BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL MOVE THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MI. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY
THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE. NORTH OF THE BRIDGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING LATER THURSDAY EVENING. BY
THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER TEMPERATURES, PRECIP WILL HAVE ALREADY BECOME
LIGHTER AND INTERMITTENT. HOWEVER, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILTY WILL BE
BROUGHT WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. AROUND 300 TO
500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND IDEAL SHEAR (40KTS+ OF SFC-3KM) WILL LEAD TO
THUNDER CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A SLIGHTLY DRIER PROFILE ALOFT, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE A COUPLE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGER HAIL
STONES. WITH UPWARDS OF +1" OF PWATS STILL AROUND, HEAVY RAIN AND
LOTS OF SMALLER HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAJORITY OF STRONGER
STORMS. THE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE, HOWEVER STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM OVER
THE SW OR CENTRAL PART OF THE L.P. COULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THEM. THESE AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55 DO NOT HAVE SUCH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AS
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A BRIEF BREAK.
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH NORTHERN MI SATURDAY MORNING, AS THE CLOSED
LOW SPREADS WARM SECTOR PRECIP OVER THE STATE. DEPENDING ON THE
ONSET OF PRECIP, SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WHILE
TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE REMAIN BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO CAN LATE SATURDAY,
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW WILL BE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
SETTLING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE CYCLE. IFR TO
MVFR CIGS TRANSITION TO MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING AND DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, BUT A WORST
CASE SCENARIO HAS MVFR CIGS HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TAFS
ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THAT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. ANY PATCHY BR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL WANE WITH
TIME.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ016>018-022>024-098-099.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ341.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JLD
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