467
FXUS63 KAPX 191141
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY LINGER FOR SOME THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX/SNOW/RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS WEEKEND AS WE TREND TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
SANDWICHED UPPER HIGH ACROSS ONTARIO, WITH UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. PRECIPITATION
FREE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT. ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST NORTHEAST,
UNDERNEATH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK FROM ILLINOIS INTO MICHIGAN, WITH
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND EAST INTO MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE, RAIN,
SNOW, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF WINTRY MIX. THIS FEATURE QUICKLY
EJECTS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOUGH TO SAY WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND. UPPER HIGH STAYS TO THE NORTH, EVENTUALLY SLIDING EAST WITH
TIME. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING/TROUGH AXIS PASSES UNDERNEATH THAT UPPER
HIGH AND EITHER INTO OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS TO OUR EAST, ~ ACROSS LAKE HURON.
AND LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A DEFORMATION AXIS ALOFT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. AT THE LOW
LEVELS, SFC TROUGHING WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST IN A SIMILAR
FASHION. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW, AIDED
BY THE LAKES, ACROSS NORTHERN MI THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS, FAST MOVING PIECES OF ENERGY
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA AND PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, EVENTUALLY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SPATIALLY
CONGRUENT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN MI ~MID NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
LINGERING FOG:
FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS MORNING, GIVEN THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH IT HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED IN A WAY THAT IS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE, AT LEAST PATCHY
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH AREAS
EAST OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN, AND NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE,
MOST FAVORED. SLICK CONDITIONS WHERE AREAS ARE AROUND OR NEAR
FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY UNTREATED SECONDARY ROADWAYS,
PARKING LOTS, ETC. WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS.
ICING/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY:
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ~CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MI, WITH A THUMP OF PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINAL, WITH THE BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE STRAITS UP INTO THE EASTERN UP
LARGELY. THUS, PRECIPITATION STARTS AS RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH A MIX THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE ANY MIX, OR FREEZING RAIN, MAY QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO HEAVY, WET SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONSEQUENTLY, COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF WET SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MOST NOTABLY NORTHEAST
LOWER INTO THE STRAITS AND EASTERN UPPER, AS INDICATED BY
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. VERY LOW SNOW RATIOS MAKE THE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN, RIGHT NOW HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES
FROM NORTHEAST LOWER INTO EASTERN UPPER, BUT THIS WILL BE FINE
TUNED GOING FORWARD. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FOR
SOME AS WELL.
SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND:
STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN MI, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER AS ENERGY PASSES NEAR OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN, AND WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. THIS IS AN INTERESTING PATTERN, AND CERTAINLY ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING
SHIFTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
LIFR CIGS CURRENTLY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM
INTERIOR AREAS OUT TOWARD THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS THAT LIFR/IFR
CIGS WILL HOLD ON AT CIU AND APN THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT
THAT MAY CHANGE SHOULD CLOUD COVER MIX OUT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBY REDUCTIONS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER BY THE END OF
THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...DJC
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