153
FXUS63 KDTX 250505
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF M-59 LATE
TONIGHT, WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS BY DAY BREAK LESS THAN 1 INCH.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
M-59 TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MONROE COUNTY.
- VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH WIND CHILLS
OCCASIONALLY DIPPING TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS SNOWFALL SPREADS FURTHER
NORTH WITH TIME THROUGH THE MORNING REACHING MBS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
LOW VFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL PRECEDES THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 23Z. HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
TRENDING EARLIER BRINGING SOLID IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE DETROIT
TERMINALS BY AT LEAST 16Z, IF NOT SLIGHTLY EARLIER, THAT THEN LAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO
FNT FOR A PERIOD BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL RESIDE ACROSS DTW AIRSPACE WITH UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION AND 1 TO 3 INCHES UP TO FNT. WINDS TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SLOW BACK FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. HEAVIER SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF TOWARDS 00Z AND AFTER WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY WHILE
LOW CEILINGS LINGER.
FOR DTW...MAIN WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE FOCUSED
BETWEEN 11Z SUNDAY MORNING TO 23Z SUNDAY EVENING WITH PEAK SNOWFALL
RATES OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR BETWEEN 16Z AND 23Z. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF LIFR DURING THE PEAK OF
SNOWFALL RATES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH
RANGE WITH LOWER PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 6 INCHES.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 THROUGH SUNDAY.
* HIGH IN PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW.
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS OF 200 FT OR VISIBILITIES OF 1/2SM IN FALLING
SNOW AFTER 16Z SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED OUT OF THE DEEP COLD HOLE THIS MORNING AND HAVE
RISEN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS,
VERY LOW DEW PTS, AND LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING, RADIATIONAL COOLING
COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DIP BELOW BACK BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING
(ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER SITES) BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN UP
SUFFICIENTLY.
THE 12Z EURO CAME IN REASONABLY CLOSE TO ITS 00Z RUN; THUS, THE
PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSION AND THOUGHTS REMAIN INTACT, AND NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES/AMOUNTS WILL BE MADE. TO RECAP: TOTAL
FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, 5-8 INCH FOR MONROE, 4-7 INCHES FOR
LENAWEE, WASHTENAW, AND WAYNE COUNTIES, AND 2-4 INCHES (WITH ISOLATED
5-INCH AMOUNTS) ALONG THE M-59 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.
THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO MEXICO, AND DOES NOT REACH
WESTERN OHIO UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. THIS FORCING WILL SUPPORT OUR BEST
SNOWFALL RATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER PEAKS JUST ABOVE 2 G/KG OVER MONROE COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHERN
WAYNE/WASHTENAW COUNTIES. WITH THE 850-700 MB CIRCULATION TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO INTO WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SATURATION/FORCING HANGING AROUND IN THE -10 TO -12 C
LAYER, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 20:1. ALSO, WITH
THE LONG-DURATION LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY MORNING, SOME MODEST COMPACTION/SNOW SETTLING NEEDS TO BE
ACCOUNTED FOR, UNLIKE MOST MODEL TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS WAVE IS FAST MOVING AND SNOWFALL SHOULD
DIMINISH FAIRLY FAST SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH, SOME LAKE HURON
ENHANCEMENT MAY PROLONG ACTIVITY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, EXTENSIVE ICE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACKING QUICKLY SHOULD HELP LIMIT INTENSITY AND DURATION
OF BANDS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE EASTERN THUMB REGION.
CONTINUED COLD NEXT WEEK, AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM/RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR (850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE LOWER 20S) ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND EVEN COLDER SHOT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PER 12Z EURO. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO REACH -15 F AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -25 C AND
SUSTAINED WINDS HANG AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE ADVISORY TYPE WIND CHILLS AS WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP.
MARINE...
LIGHTER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES DEPARTS INTO THE CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST
AND INTO QUEBEC. LIGHT SNOW TO THEN EXPAND FROM LAKE ERIE UP THROUGH
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AS AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE APPALACHIA REGION. EMBEDDED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD AIR IS REINFORCED WITHIN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING
THE RETURN OF ELEVATED WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
CLIMATE...
FLINT SET A RECORD LOW TODAY (-24 DEGREES), AND WAS JUST 1 DEGREE
AWAY FROM TYING THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMP OF 25 DEGREES (SET IN
JAN 18 1976 AND FEB 20 2015).
THE RECORD LOW MIN TEMPS FOR TODAY, JANUARY 24TH.
DETROIT: -13 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
FLINT: -24 DEGREES (SET IN 2026)
SAGINAW: -13 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY, JANUARY 24TH (FLINT AND
SAGINAW STILL HAVE NOT RISEN ABOVE THESE VALUES TODAY, AS OF 3 PM).
DETROIT: 4 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
FLINT: 5 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
SAGINAW: 8 DEGREES (SET IN 1961)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MIZ063-068>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ075-076-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM
CLIMATE......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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