185
FXUS63 KDTX 112228
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
628 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY, OTHERWISE A
QUIET WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITHIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW, ENSURING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED
OVERALL CLOUD COVERAGE. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL OFFER A WINDOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE LOCALLY
NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CLOUD
DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL WORK TO SCATTER OUT
THIS CLOUD FIELD HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WITH MODEST AFTERNOON GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY FROM PTK NORTHWARD.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RETURN FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE NOSE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AIR TO
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ELEVATED ASCENT,
SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY AROUND OR SOUTH OF I-94.
TIMING FOR THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM THE MID MORNING HOURS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN
THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY WEAK
SHOWER, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACTIVITY WHICH WILL CAP POP CHANCES AOB 15%. SO WHILE
MOSTLY QUIET, A LIGHT SHOWER OR STRAY ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS/STORM ACTIVITY
PENDING WHERE BETTER FORCING ALIGNS ALONG THE FRONT. NBM HOLDS
CHANCES (30%) ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB WITH A SUBSET OF
GLOBAL MODELS PUSHING THIS POTENTIAL SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IN EITHER CASE, POP VALUES REMAIN LOW WITH MINIMAL QPF
POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON MONDAY SUPPORTING DRY
WEATHER. MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MODELS
HIGHLIGHTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PENDING THE FINAL
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES HOLD AROUND
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY BY MONDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER COMES BACK IN. AN
ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS THOUGHT NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT/EARLY DAY ARRIVAL AND DETACHMENT FROM THE
PARENT LOW GREATLY LIMIT ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODERATE TRAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON DAYTIME SUNDAY WITH
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE
NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON OFFERING AN ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE INTO
MONDAY. A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM THEN LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. PRECEDING WARM, HUMID
AIRMASS WILL FUEL BETTER SCATTERED STORM CHANCES.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK/SS
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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