107
FXUS63 KDTX 080342
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1142 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
PREFRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
SUPPORT LOWERING CEILINGS, THOUGH STILL VFR, AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR COVERAGE TOO INCLUDE IN
CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER. MAIN COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON OFFERING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATE
MORNING ARRIVAL OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FAVORS MAINLY SHOWERS,
THOUGH THE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL FOR THE DETROIT SITES DOES OFFER A
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS. CLOUDS CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WINDS RETURNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POST-FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT.
D21/DTW CONVECTION... LOW POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT. MODERATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
DISCUSSION...
WE CURRENTLY RESIDE UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER MN. WE ARE IN A RELATIVE LULL
IN THE PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WELL TO
THE WEST AND ALSO TO OUR EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY, A NARROW AXIS OF MID LEVEL FORCING SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
HELP TOUCH OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS UTILIZING THE 1000-2000
J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING UP. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, TOPPING OUT AROUND 20
KNOTS CURRENTLY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONGER STORMS
ORGANIZING. WEALTH OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ALSO HELP
KEEP STORMS FROM GETTING TOO STRONG. SPC MESO ANALYSIS DOES HAVE
DCAPE UP AROUND 1100 J/KG SO ANY STRONGER STORM WILL HAVE
CAPABILITIES TO PRODUCE A MICROBURST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE SOME STRENGTHENING IN
THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY BAND OVER FAR SOUTHERN MI. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AGAIN POSES A RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALTHOUGH
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE. AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHER MI. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DISJOINTED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
SUPPORT ARRIVING PRIOR TO 12Z, WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING AFTER 12Z
COINCIDENT WITH A POTENTIAL PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL PUSH THE
BULK OF THE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE REGION, BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE ARE ENOUGH PIECES THAT COULD
BRIEFLY OVERLAP WITH MODEL ESTIMATES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE BUILDING EARLY IN THE DAY. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS RIDGING TO THE SOUTH FOLDS OVER THROUGH
SOUTHERN MI. WE WILL BE WATCHING TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE STARTS ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SETTING UP AROUND IOWA AND THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
IL AND IN. MODELS ARE ALREADY INDICATING RIDGE RUNNING TYPE MCS
ACTIVITY WITH A COMPLEX POSSIBLY PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MI SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR THIS SETUP ALONG THE WARM FRONT, SPC
HAS ALREADY PUT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO
DETROIT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
GENERAL TROUGHING AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO LEAD TO
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
MOST MARINE AREAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES OCCUR. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TURN NORTHWEST GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND MAY BRIEFLY TOP AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING IN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......SS
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