104
FXUS63 KDTX 120800
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
300 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A BIT MORE SUN.
- GRADUAL BUT STEADY WARM-UP COMMENCES FRIDAY AND PERSISTS INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH POSSIBLE BY MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHERN LOWER MI REMAINS UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF LINGERING UPPER
TROUGHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
HIGH LIGHTENS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REDUCING LAKE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AS WELL AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE, THE COMBINATION OF WHICH PROMOTES
MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY (RATHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY
LIKE YESTERDAY). WHILE THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY, BETTER SHOT AT MORE SUN TODAY DOES OFFER AN EXTRA DEGREE
OR TWO OF WARMING WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR ALL BUT THUMB.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING SETTING UP
WEAK WAA AS S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SPILT UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS
STEADILY WARM EACH DAY FROM UPPER 30S FRIDAY TO MID 40S BY SUNDAY.
SPILT PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP THE THEN DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW WELL SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ONLY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AT MAX
EXTENT. A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TO MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH SUPPORTING DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE NEW WEEK.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RESPECTABLE LOW PASSING
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY MONDAY STRENGTHENING WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO SE MI. THIS ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD FAVORED TO BE ABOVE TO
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH 50S POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY, IF NOT TUESDAY
FOR SOME AREAS.
MARINE
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL EASE
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST, SITUATING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES. GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PASSES OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PASS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE FAVORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
AVIATION...
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING AN
END TO MEANINGFUL MOISTURE FLUX AT THE MOMENT, ALLOWING AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING CLEARING LINE TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT. EXISTING
STRATUS STILL ENCOMPASSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH LATEST TRENDS NOW SUGGESTING GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUD COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DETROIT CORRIDOR. AREAS FROM
PTK NORTHWARD MAY CONTINUE TO WITNESS AREAS OF STRATUS AS NORTHWEST
FLOW DIRECTS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME RENEWED EXPANSION OF STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EARLY THURSDAY, BEFORE SCATTERING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY. CLOUD BASE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MEDIUM LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....MR
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