076
FXUS63 KDTX 260826
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR HURON
AND SANILAC COUNTIES.
- FRIGID CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FIRST EPISODE OF DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS.
- SNOW SHOWERS AROUND ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DUSTING
TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SQUALLS.
- A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
DIRECT ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN COMPOSITE TROUGH AXIS HAS
RESULTED IN A FIRMING OF DEFORMATION FORCING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH KDTX AND CASET Z PRODUCTS SHOWED
STEADY INCREASE IN RETURNS THE PAST 4-6 HOURS WITH MEASURED REPORTS
OF HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF UPWARDS OF 20:1 TO 30:1. NWP SIGNAL
SUGGESTS ITS GOING TO TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR THE DEFORMATION
AXIS TO PIVOT AND SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
LOOK AT STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS IN THE THUMB WITH THIS LATEST
OVERNIGHT ROUND ON TOP OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM SUNDAY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HURON AND SANILAC
COUNTIES THROUGH 10AM. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THIS MORNING AND NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE HEADLINES. JUST VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC
DESCENT IS FORECASTED TODAY WITH A DELAYED DRY AIR ADVECTION RESPONSE
IN THE MIDLEVELS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR LIFT
TODAY BUT SOME SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL YIELD FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN RESIDES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GRADIENT TO
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. GOOD
SIGNAL FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE. DRY LOWER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
ALLOWING WINDCHILLS TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
AMPLIFIED CLIPPER SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECASTED TO DIG RIGHT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE 9-14Z TIME WINDOW TUESDAY MORNING.
DECENT WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE WILL SUPPORT LIFT FOR A TIME, BUT THE
REAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AN EXTREMELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
SATURATION BETWEEN 800-650MB. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS REALLY
STRUGGLING WITH QPF AMOUNTS. LOOKS TO BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SETUP
AND WILL CARRY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EARLY TUESDAY OF AROUND A HALF
INCH. WILL LIKELY SEE WINDCHILLS RISE A FEW DEGREES AROUND DAYBREAK
WITH THE CLOUD AND SNOW.
MIDLEVEL ARCTIC INTRUSION OF -25C WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL WARM ADVECTION
IS THEN ANTICIPATED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS QUESTION AND
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT CLOUD WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS COULD BE
OVERFORECASTING THE SATURATION. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CALLING FOR WINDSPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE A REAL CLOSE CALL FOR WINDCHILLS TO FALL TO -15C
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE/WINDCHILL FORECAST
WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
A SECOND AND LARGER, COLDER ARCTIC INTRUSION IS FORECASTED TO DIG
STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COLDEST
OF THE AIRMASS, 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22 TO -25C LOOK TO BE
OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT WINDCHILL FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING
HAS VALUES DROPPING TO -15F FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND -20F FOR
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL WINDCHILL HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON HOW THE COLD ANOMALY WILL
TRANSITION AND EVOLVE OUT OF THE AREA. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MID
ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO MAY RESULT IN A PATTERN CHANGE WITH QUIET
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND, A SOLUTION THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC ALL AGREE ON.
MARINE
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS AN EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE APPALACHIA REGION.
DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL AGAIN BOOST
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY, PROMOTING A STEEP MIXING LAYER THAT WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND GUSTS RANGING 20
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH SOME OF THESE
HIGHER END GUSTS ENTERING TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
AVIATION...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE USHERED IN LAKE MOISTURE BRINGING A
MIX OF LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL/FLURRIES. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
PLUME SHOULD BE EAST AND NORTH OF TERMINALS ACROSS THE THUMB. THIS
INITIAL PUSH OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ASSOCIATED
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A PERIOD OF BORDERLINE
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
DEVELOPS AFTER 09Z AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND MVFR WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITY.
FOR DTW...BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A DUSTING
TO MAYBE A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DEVELOP OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, HIGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ049-055.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....AA
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