073
FXUS63 KDTX 112245
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
645 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE.
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS HEIGHTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON, RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT AMPLE MOISTURE RESIDING UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL EITHER
ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OR WILL SUSTAIN THE
EXISTING STRATUS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE INVERSION WILL ERODE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF WARM AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND OF THE LOWER CLOUDS, LEAVING A
SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME, MAINLY ACROSS THE METRO DETROIT TERMINALS
WHERE THE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER. RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS WILL ERODE MORNING FOG AS MIXING DEPTHS BUILD. LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THIS EVENING. LOW OVERNIGHT.
* LOW IN VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS AOB 1/2SM AND/OR 200 FEET
MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
DISCUSSION...
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ENTRENCHED LOCALLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINTAINED WITHIN THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS NOW EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL END AS MEANINGFUL MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM VACATES AND MOISTURE DEPTH DIMINISHES,
LEAVING SIMPLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS HEADING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT A CLEARING SKY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL THEN EMERGE FOR SOME DEGREE OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
PATCHY MENTION, BUT A MORE FOCUSED REGION COULD MATERIALIZE SHOULD
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
FOR MID-OCTOBER, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER 50S HELD IN THE METRO DETROIT URBAN CORRIDOR.
HIGHER MAGNITUDE UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES RESIDENCE DURING THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THIS OCCURS AS DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGING AFFORDS
A SHIFT TOWARD LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW, OFFERING A PERIOD OF STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING MONDAY. A MODERATELY MIXED PROFILE UNDER
HIGH INSOLATION POTENTIAL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE MID
TEENS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
MONDAY ARRIVING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. VERY
MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE
60S, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANINGFUL NOCTURNAL WINDOW FOR MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER PRODUCTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME, SUPPORTIVE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A SOLID 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS PEAK NEAR 18C AHEAD
OF AN INBOUND COLD FRONT. WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD OFFER A LOWER END PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH GREATER ASCENT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING ACROSS THE LINGERING ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE
WILL BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT. OTHERWISE, PATTERN TRANSITIONS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS TRANSIENT LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGING LIFTS THROUGH. POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS GENERAL SPLIT FLOW YIELDS AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH A
MORE DYNAMIC WAVE EJECTING SOUTHEAST. THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
PROVIDE A MORE NOTEWORTHY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN TEMPERATURE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS LIKELY PARKED IN THE 50S, WITH LOWS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE 30S.
MARINE...
REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL DEPART INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHTER WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GUST POTENTIAL AOA 20 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......AM
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