468
FXUS63 KDTX 141053
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BIG WARMUP AHEAD: HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND. EVEN WARMER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI TODAY AND SETTLES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. IT PROMOTES A DECREASING VFR CLOUD TREND EARLY
THIS MORNING LEAVING CLEAR SKY OR A STRAY HIGH BASED AND SHALLOW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING DEVELOPS AN
INCREASING CIRRUS COMPONENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION... NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT, MARKED BY A ROBUST
SPRING WARMUP AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME AS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN
AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FOR THE SHORT TERM, CLOUDS ARE STILL
HOLDING STRONG CURRENTLY, AS 00Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED RATHER DEEP
CLOUD LAYER/SATURATION DEPTHS. STILL, WITH CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED OVER
FAR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUNDING THIS
MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING
TREND. LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST TODAY, BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL
ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
REACH 3.5 TO 4 C, MAXES SHOULD LIFT INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT, BUT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE/ATTACHED UPPER-LEVEL PV FILAMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING. LACK OF FORCING OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN AND REMNANT DRY AIR IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP US DRY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WARM AIR THEN SURGES INTO THE STATE. ALTHOUGH,
I WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY IN THE TRI-CITIES REGION), AS SEEN IN RRFS AND ARW.
THE TREND FOR SATURDAY IS NOW FOR AN MCV TO COME OUT OF THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP, WHICH WILL OF COURSE IMPACT
THE MAXES. I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN REACHING 80+ DEGREES ANYMORE,
DESPITE THE NBM ADVERTISING LOWER 80S (WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF
CONVECTION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS LIMITED)
BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS OF 14+ C. IF TIMING OF THE MCV CORRESPONDS
WITH PEAK HEATING, MLCAPE REACHING AOA 1000 J/KG WOULD POSE A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS NOTED.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FEATURES FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRENGTHENING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ON MONDAY POTENTIALLY LEADS TO OUR FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY, BUT THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO CLEAR THE CWA
CLEANLY AND WE WILL HAVE TO REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN
MOISTURE SURGE AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY IN FAVOR
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW SUBSIDES AS
THE LOCAL GRADIENT RELAXES, ALLOWING THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO BACK FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE
ACROSS ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THIS LOW THEN
REACHES THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CARRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......MV
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