574
FXUS63 KDTX 262037
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLYSUNDAY. BRIEF
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
THUMB AND NORTHERN SAGINAW VALLEY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING.
- MILDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH INTERVALS OF RAIN LASTING INTOSUNDAY
NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER AND WINDY MONDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. IN ADDITION, SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.
- COLDER CONDITIONS EXIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM WIND CHILL IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END
SHORTLY, AS SUPPORTIVE FORCING OFFERED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
DECLINES AND IMPROVING DEPTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES A DRYING
PROFILE. UNUSUAL EVENT OVERALL FROM THE STAND POINT OF QPF (ALMOST
AN INCH IN SPOTS) RELATIVE TO ICE ACCRETION, WITH TWO OBSERVATIONS
NOW (INCLUDING HERE AT DTX) WHERE THE ACCRETION WAS ONLY AROUND A
TENTH OF THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTAL. A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF RUNOFF
GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES, WITH A FAIRLY GENEROUS AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS ULTIMATELY CONTRIBUTING TO A SOLID BACK END RESPONSE.
MOST LOCATIONS ARRIVING WITH FLAT ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE .1-.2"
RANGE, BUT NOTABLY LESS FROM DTW SOUTHWARD AS TEMPERATURES LINGERED
MUCH CLOSER TO FREEZING AND RATES/DURATION WHERE LACKING. FOR
TONIGHT, DEEPER LAYER STABILITY TAKES HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BENEATH WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAINTAINS MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THIS PATTERN AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH TIME. THIS WILL EDGE TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S.
DEEP LAYER STABILITY HELD WITHIN EXISTING LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING
OFFERS BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. HIGH MAGNITUDE WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES THIS PERIOD ABOVE 925 MB, BUT EFFECTIVELY MUTED
BELOW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS AN EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT.
MODEST DIURNAL THERMAL RECOVERY LEAD BY AN INCREASING MEAN
THICKNESS FIELD WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMP INVOF NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER. INCREASING DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THE ADVECTIVE
PROCESS WITH TIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL ANCHOR A MORE
SIZABLE CORRIDOR OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANYING AN
INBOUND WARM FRONT. ONSET TIMING RELATIVE TO PACE OF WARMING AT THE
SURFACE WILL DICTATE THE PROBABILITY FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF
FREEZING RAIN /MAINLY NORTH/ DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH QUALITY THETA-E RIDGE TAKES RESIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ATTAINS GREATER DEPTH IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF A
CONSOLIDATING REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS. INTERVALS OF SHOWERS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS WHERE FORCING PEAKS
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND ALONG THE NORTH/EAST FLANK OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL RATE, AND POSSIBLE THUNDER, AS COLUMN
STABILITY DIMINISHES. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL. OUTGOING FORECAST NOW HIGHLIGHTS A BROAD QPF SWATH
OF GENERALLY THREE QUARTERS TO INCH AND A QUARTER OVER A 24 HOUR
PERIOD, WITH THESE VALUES CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SPACE. WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY, BUT WITH A
NOTABLE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY YET ON
WHERE THE WARM FRONT STALLS.
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A RAPID
DECLINE IN TEMPERATURE THEREAFTER, WHILE WIND MAGNITUDE STRENGTHENS
MONDAY AS THE GOVERNING SYSTEM DEEPENS WITH TIME WHILE EXITING TO
THE NORTH. EPS OFFERS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH MONDAY,
WHILE EXCEEDING 40 MPH RESIDES NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE. FRONTAL
TIMING MEANS A HIGH TEMPERATURE MONDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW SHOWER/BRIEF SQUALL POTENTIAL INCREASES
MONDAY AS SYNOPTIC LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AUGMENTS INCREASING LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE FLUX. AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN PLAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED
PROVIDES THE COLDEST CONDITIONS TUE-WED WITH WIND CHILL IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS OFFERS WEAKER WIND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
THIS EVENING. WIND ORGANIZES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY,
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BY THE EVENING AS THE
NEXT LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND HOLDING GENERALLY
BELOW 25 KT WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. STRONG ARCTIC COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWS ON MONDAY, CAUSING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WIND. GALES ARE LIKELY AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW. GALE WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WITH A
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGE. FREEZING SPRAY AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS.
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO DEVELOP AT TIMES. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF PRONE LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
AVIATION...
A MIXED-PHASE WINTER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, LIFR
CONDITIONS, AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. NEAR SURFACE AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY RISING, EVENTUALLY LIFTING ABOVE FREEZING AT
ALL SITES FROM FNT SOUTH BY APPROXIMATELY 21Z. OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS, THE TRANSITION FROM FZRA TO RA WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD, BUT
LIFR CEILINGS FILL IN AND LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONCLUDE BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z, WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR (NON-FREEZING) DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
THE DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
CEILINGS LIFT, AT LEAST SLIGHTLY, AS DRIER AIR FILLS INTO THE MID-
LEVELS, BUT LOCKS IN A LOWER STRATOCUMULUS DECK BENEATH THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONTAL SLOPE INVERSION. PRESERVED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN POOR ASCENT METRICS WITHIN THE SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL MIXED-LAYER. WINDS TURN NE, AND SETTLE NW TONIGHT.
CEILINGS EVENTUALLY LIFT TO MVFR ON SATURDAY, BUT IT COULD TAKE SOME
TIME GIVEN LOW-LEVEL COOLING WHICH HELPS PRESERVE SATURATION.
FOR DTW...THE PEAK PERIOD FOR ICING ACCUMULATION IS OVER, WITH
LIQUID RAIN NOW EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS AIR
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HOLD AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
* MEDIUM FOR ALL RAIN UNTIL PRECIPITATION CONCLUDES THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......TF
HYDROLOGY....MR
AVIATION.....KGK
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