910
FXUS63 KDTX 122317
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
617 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND MILD ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
- SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A DUSTING AND 2 INCHES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE.
- MUCH COLDER LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING WIND CHILL AROUND ZERO DEGREES.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUD
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON ITS WAY NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS BUT MAINLY STILL VFR. SOME SIGNAL FOR
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY BUT THE WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA HARD TO
COME BY. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LESS THAN 20% FOR MOST SITES SO WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE IN
THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY, MEDIUM FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTS BENIGN CONDITIONS THE REST OF
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NVA AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINING
HIGHER STABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. WIND BECOMES LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT
BUT A PERSISTENT GRADIENT KEEPS SOUTHWEST WIND AND ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD, NEAR 30.
THE NEXT LOW WILL BE STEERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY BY A MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING IN WITHIN LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING
THE MORNING, BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL SIT TENUOUSLY CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH AROUND 9AM, WHICH BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE DURING THIS
WINDOW, VIRGA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP
THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WOULD TREND FROM A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO JUST RAIN AS TEMPS RISE TOWARD THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S FOR A HIGH.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE INBOUND LOW,
PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD FOR WIND MAGNITUDE, AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND PROGS WILL SUPPORT GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH FROM LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING FILAMENTS OF PV FOLLOWING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THIS WILL
WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DIRECTS A POTENT WAVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AN ATTENDANT ARCTIC
FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING FROM AROUND 0C TO AROUND -20C BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EARLY DAY HIGHS IN THE 30S FALL TO THE TEENS BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FGEN, AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER RATES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER HAS SHOWN AN INCREASING TREND, SO THIS PERIOD BEARS
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AROUND 1 INCH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTENTION
DURING THIS PERIOD TURNS TO THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF THE THUMB WHERE
N TO NNW WIND OFF LAKE HURON MAY BRING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ONSHORE
AT TIMES. ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 2 TO 3
INCHES FOR THIS AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW
SHOWERS IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY BUT THEN WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY AND ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS
OFFERS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AMOUNT SPECIFICS FOR NOW. THE PATTERN
REINFORCES THE ARCTIC AIR SUPPLY WITH 850MB TEMPS HELD 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL COLDEST PART
OF THE SEASON. WIND CHILLS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM -10 TO 20F
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VALUES NEAR 0 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS.
MARINE...
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DECREASES THIS EVENING, BEFORE THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FLOW INCREASES AND TURNS
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY WHICH BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON NEARSHORES. 35-
50 KNOT FLOW MOVES INTO THE LOWEST 3 KFT, BUT GUSTS MAY BE HELD IN-
CHECK BY LOWER COLUMN STABILITY. STILL, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED GUSTS TO GALES TUESDAY. THE LOW EJECTS INTO QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH FORCES A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONTAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A POST-FRONTAL GALES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD IS WEAKER AND DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS SPEEDS DECREASE
THURSDAY, THEN FLIP SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KGK
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