532
FXUS63 KDTX 021046
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
546 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIALLY WET WEEK AHEAD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE 50S AND 60S ARRIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY, MAINTAINING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCALLY. A FEW BANDS OF HIGH CLOUD ARE PRESENT ON
SATELLITE AT ISSUANCE, BUT WILL BE THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT TODAY
AND TONIGHT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP BELOW 5.0 KFT
AGL BY 12Z.
FOR DTW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE 32 DEGREES AND TRANSITION
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO RAIN.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TUESDAY MORNING.
* LOW FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
DISCUSSION...
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED
IN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. COMBINED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW HAS DROPPED TO THE LOW TEENS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A CHILLY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST, WE'LL BEGIN TO TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALLOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AIDED BY
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS FLOW PIVOTING TO ZONAL ALLOWS HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF UNIMPEDED MARCH SUN ON
TOP OF THAT, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE AREA.
NEXT PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO REACH THE REGION WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL TRY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THE ELEVATED
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE
STATE TIED MORE ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THE FACT
RIBBONS OF FORCING ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE FURTHER
NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW INTO SE MI KEEPS A FEED OF DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION HELPING EVAPORATE ANY ATTEMPT FOR ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT FROM ACTIVATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE OFFERED LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION IN THE BL WITH DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE IT
REDUCING THE CHANCE OF SATURATING FROM TOP DOWN. THIS IS NOTABLE AS
THE DAY WILL START OFF SUB FREEZING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
SO ANY PRECIP COULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
TEMPS WARM UP HEADING TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S. LOCAL PROBS HAVE
BEEN FALLING FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCURING AND CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
FOR NOW CENTERED AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. BETTERN CHANCES FOR
RAIN COME IN THE AFTERNOON AS WE GET THE LEAD EDGE OF BROAD MID
LEVEL WAVE RACING THROUGH THE AREA. COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH MID LEVEL
SATURATION TO SURVIVE THROUGH THE 6-7KFT OF DRY AIR BELOW IT. AS THE
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING, TEMPS COOL AGAIN DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING WHICH COULD BRING FREEZING DRIZLE BACK INTO THE
PICTURE FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
A POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY LOCALLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STRONGER COMPACT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE WEST AND TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY LOOKS
TO TARGET THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. COULD ALL LEAD TO A FEW DAYS IN A
ROW OF PERIODS OF RAIN. THE NATURE OF ZONAL FLOW WAVERING ABOUT FROM
RUN TO RUN LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BUT CHANCES ARE FOR
A WET END OF THE WEEK. THE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL STABILITY, IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL TOP OUT JUST AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. A
WEAK LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BRINGS MOSTLY
RAIN OVER LAKE ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE, WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS RETURNING WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS.
ANOTHER WARM LOW PRODUCING RAIN LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
HURON LOOK TO BE AT LEAST MODERATE (POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS),
BUT THE INCREASING LOW STABILITY SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING MUCH
STRONGER.
LITTLE IF ANY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS, WITH ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page