939
FXUS63 KDTX 260352
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE M-59
CORRIDOR, WITH ALL HAZARDS (WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADOES).
- SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS DRY AND STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS EXIST WITHIN A GRADUALLY WARMING ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME INTERVALS OF HIGH BASED CLOUD WILL FUNNEL
THROUGH AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL WINDS HOLD FROM THE SOUTH. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST, WHILE PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING EXPANSION OF LOWER STRATUS WITH TIME. FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN INITIAI PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS
EMERGING ALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ACCOMPANYING REDUCTION
OF VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS AS
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE STRENGTHENS. THIS MAY AFFORD A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SHOULD INSTABILITY PROVE
SUFFICIENT MAINLY ACROSS THE DETROIT CORRIDOR. ONGOING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
EMERGE LATE IN THE
FOR DTW...A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE
AIRPORT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXITING INTO OHIO.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
DISCUSSION...
CIRRUS CANOPY AT 20-25 KFT AGL DEVELOPING UNDER THE ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET EXIT REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY.
DESPITE A COLD START TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. QUIET WEATHER FOR EVENING
INTERESTS WITH A LOSS OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER 50S.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CENTERED ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THURSDAY PRIMARILY IN THE 21-01Z TIME WINDOW.
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEGIN WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EDGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SHARP SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BISECTING
THE FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAGINAW BAY AND I 69. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY WITH CLOUDS, HIGH BASED
RAIN THEN DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS AN AXIS OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS NOSES INTO AND PUSHES SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH THEN STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY THE
SURFACE BASED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY
THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION.
DESPITE THERE BEING MANY FACTORS THAT COULD AID THE SOUTHWARD PUSH,
INCLUDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, LOSS
OF PEAK HEATING, AND EVENTUAL PNEUMONIA FRONT RELEASE OFF OF LAKE
HURON, THE BIGGEST REASON IS THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY CENTER/PV FEATURE TO INDUCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. LATEST
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS NOTHING MORE THAN UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ANTICYCLONICALLY ROLLING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
25.12Z HREF SUPPORTS RICHEST THETAE AND MUCAPE (+1000 J/KG)
RESERVOIR LIFTING INTO PLACE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN/INDIANA STATELINE FROM APPROXIMATELY COLDWATER MI TO FULTON
COUNTY OHIO. THE NOTABLE TREND AMONGST ALL OF THE 12Z HIRES SUITE
WAS TO LIMIT SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60 DEGREES FOR LENAWEE COUNTY
PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z. THE OTHER 12Z HIRES TAKEAWAY WAS THE
CONTINUATION TO RESOLVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A CONVECTIVE
AUGMENTATION TO HEIGHT FALL CENTER EMERGING NEAR CHICAGOLAND OR SOUTH
BEND VICINITY AFTER 21Z. WITH ONGOING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE RICH THETAE GRADIENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE , THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I 94. HIGH
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES, 30-35 KNOTS, FROM A LENGTHY, STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH DOES BRING THE PROSPECTS OF A TORNADO IF THE ROBUST
CONVECTION/MESOLOW CLIPS THE SOUTHERN AREA. LATEST SWODY2 HAS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SOUTH OF I 69 DESIGNATED IN A
MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL, WIND, AND TORNADOES.
SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL SUPPORT
COLD WEATHER FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
IN THE THUMB TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY WITH SOME ROGUE BOUNDARY LAYER FLURRIES POSSIBLE BY EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE AND NON-IMPACTFUL. AIR MASS MODERATION ON SATURDAY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE SOME 5-10 DEGREES GREATER THAN THE DAY
BEFORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SATURDAY ALLOWS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARM WEATHER WILL EXIST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
TIMING THE LOCATION OF THE TRUE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS VERY DIFFICULT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS CLOSE BY.
MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE OCCUPIES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WANES ON THURSDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROVIDES A MUCH STRONGER WIND FIELD ALOFT
AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE, THEREFORE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDRESSED VIA MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS. ALL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS, IN
ISOLATED FASHION (I.E. +34 KNOT GUSTS, +0.75 INCH HAIL,
WATERSPOUTS), PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERWAYS (LAKE ST. CLAIR AND WESTERN ERIE). POST-FRONTAL COOLING
WILL BE STARK, BUT A DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT NOCTURNAL MIXED-LAYER GUSTINESS TO BELOW 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER,
MODEST ON-SHORE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS SUGGEST HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES, WHICH WILL LIKELY WARRANT
ISSUANCE DURING THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LHZ421-441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......KGK
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