662  
FXUS63 KDTX 190710  
AFDDTX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
310 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NEAR TERM / TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
AS OF 310 AM EDT...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND STABLE, DRY  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER REMNANT ALTOSTRATUS FROM YESTERDAY'S  
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OR EXITED EAST OF SOUTHEAST  
MICHIGAN, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING. THIS  
CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS  
STREAMING EASTWARD FROM SHEARING ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS HELPS LIMIT  
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.  
 
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH  
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE  
SURFACE HIGH A BIT FURTHER EAST, SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TODAY, ALBEIT STILL LIGHT WITH GUSTS LARGELY BELOW  
15 MPH. BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, AND  
FEATURE WELL-MIXED AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL  
MAXIMIZE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN BUBBLING STRATOCU  
AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOULD  
STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH THE CLOUDS, AND  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH WELL INTO THE 40S, WITH UPPER  
40S POSSIBLE DETROIT METRO REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SETTLE AROUND FREEZING.  
 
SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT  
 
A RIBBON OF NORTHERN STREAM PV RACES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT, AS  
SHEARING ENERGY EXITING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTERACTS AND  
HELPS SPAWN A WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING FOR THE  
DAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT RIDING  
THE HEELS OF A 40 KT LLJ TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS  
PRIMARILY AFTER NOON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A  
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL  
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT STILL  
EXPECTING HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE  
DAY AS WELL WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS PEAKING 20-30 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES  
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, LINGERING  
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTH FROM THE  
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MAY RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES,  
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S.  
 
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO  
BUILD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS  
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN/SNOW  
SHOWERS BRUSHING AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST. CLAIR.  
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 40S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S.  
 
LONG TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
 
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY  
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WITH A QUASI REX BLOCK  
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING RESULTING IN A EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINNING  
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING  
IS WEDNESDAY MARCH 20TH, AND THE WEEKEND WILL SHAPE UP TO BE AN  
EXCELLENT START WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY, ENSURING QUIET  
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION IN ICE FREE AREAS.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL  
PEAK NEAR 25 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS SAGINAW BAY AND INTO PORTIONS  
OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH  
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MORE MODEST NORTHWEST TO  
WEST WIND WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD  
OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO GUSTS TO NEAR  
GALES OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
AVIATION...  
 
MIDLEVEL ALTOCUMULUS IS STILL HANGING AROUND FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF  
THE CWA AT PRESS TIME. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA  
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. QUIET VFR WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR  
THE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD WITH DRY NORTHWEST  
FLOW AND RESIDUAL SURFACE RIDGING. RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL  
INCREASE MODESTLY ON WEDNESDAY ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL  
INCREASE AFTER 17Z.  
 
FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF THE 9000 FT AGL  
ALTOCUMULUS. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...  
 
* LOW FOR CIG AT OR LESS THAN 5000 FT AGL WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LAKE HURON...NONE.  
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.  
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...IRL  
MARINE.......MR  
AVIATION.....CB  
 
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.  
 
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