597
FXUS63 KDTX 082247
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
647 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL POSE A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LATE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
- NOT AS WARM AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A MOISTURE LADEN AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
INITIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID LEVELS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING VFR BASED CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THERE IS FORECAST TO BE A BETTER PUSH OF ASCENT ALONG A LEAD MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COINCIDING WITH THE THE
ADVECTION OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS, FOCUSED MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR BASED CEILINGS. INCREASING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
WITH THE MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WITHIN THE HIGH AMBIENT MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDE
FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...WITH SUPPORT OF A FEW HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS, A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS VALUED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECISE TIMING AND COVERAGE
CARRIES A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST WILL TARGET
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS THE PEAK IN THE DAYTIME HEATING CYCLE, FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT. HIGH TUESDAY.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
DISCUSSION...
DEEP COLUMN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, GRADIENT FLOW
WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN NARRATIVE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE RICH THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL CAUSE PWATS TO CLIMB TOWARD 2.00 INCHES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S.
SCATTERED, HIGH BASED SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN THIS EVENING WITH LEAD
SPOKE OF ABSOLUTE VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE AREA. MODEST COOLING
ABOVE 12.0 KFT AGL SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT
COULD SUPPORT A SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER. STATIC STABILITY IN THE
LOWEST 8.0 KFT AGL WILL LIMIT ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY.
WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID FOR TUESDAY. OLD, CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NORTHERN LAKE
HURON BASIN. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE SITUATED SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE A WEAK
COLD FRONT FEATURE PUSHES ACROSS BETWEEN 20-04Z. PROJECTED CAPE
VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED PEAK IN THE 1750-2250 J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25 KNOTS. LOW SHEAR LIMITS CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTIVE VIGOR POTENTIAL BUT HIGH PWATS SUGGESTS
WET MICROBURSTS AND WATER LOADING POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT BETWEEN 19-04Z TIME WINDOW. A BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DESIGNATED AS
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM.
A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXPAND IN WAVELENGTH WHILE CENTERING OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED GEOPOTENTIAL THICKNESS INCREASE WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER UPTICK IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES OR
MORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT 100 DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED. 800-600MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SBCAPE REACHING 3000 J/KG. FROM A DYNAMICS PERSPECTIVE
MODEL SIGNAL SUPPORTS LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITH THE
RIDGE PARKED OVERHEAD AND EPISODIC ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
TIMED OUT FOR BOTH MIDDAY PERIODS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE LOW
CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE SUBSEQUENT TRACKING
OF ANY UPSTREAM MCS TRACKING TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN. THE IMPORTANT
NOTE FOR WEDNESDAY IS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD BRINGING QUESTION TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION
WILL BE ORGANIZED IF IT DOES MAKE A RUN AT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE
LATEST SWODY2 HAS A MARGINAL RISK DESIGNATION MERELY BRUSHING UP
AGAIN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARDS THE STATE. MODELS SUPPORT
STRONGER WIND FIELD ALOFT AND KINEMATICS FINALLY ARRIVING LATE WITH
850MB WINDS CLIMBING ABOVE 50 KNOTS. THE LATEST DAY4 OUTLOOK FOR SPC
HAS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DESIGNATED AS 15% FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OUT THE HUMIDITY.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MIGRATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
EVENING, MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST WIND ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT INTO
TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY BEFORE PASSING ACROSS LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS
IN A HUMID AIR MASS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL CARRY A DEGREE OF
VARIABILITY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH, BUT REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS WITHIN STORMS. A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TAKE RESIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW WILL
BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT AT TIMES.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......TF
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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