182
FXUS63 KDTX 310818
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
318 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO RANGE BETWEEN A HALF-INCH TO AN INCH BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD BRING LOCALIZED TOTALS
NEAR 2 INCHES.
- SEASONALLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL PV ANOMALY LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
DRIVING HEIGHT FALLS AND SHARPENING THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
WITH ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL BRING RENEWED SNOW CHANCES ACROSS SE MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SNOW GENERALLY REMAINS LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS RANGING BETWEEN A HALF-INCH TO AN INCH BY
TONIGHT.
SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED TOTALS NEARING TWO INCHES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NOTING 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES PEAKING NEAR -2K/KM BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PUT PERIODIC HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE NEAR THE MI/OH
BORDER BY THE EVENING, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY SUPPORT A QUICK PERIOD OF
MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT LEADING TO BRIEF LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW RATES.
LAST, THERE IS A VERY LOW END POSSIBILITY FOR A MESO-VORT FEATURE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE HURON WITH POTENTIAL TO CLIP THE NORTHERN THUMB.
ALL OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES BRING LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG WITH BRIEF BUT RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH, ISOLATED 35, WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW TO RAPIDLY DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR -20C. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW WELL STRATUS WILL BE
ABLE TO PERSIST GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR INCOMING WITH THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS, BUT THE FORECAST HEDGES TOWARDS INCREASING CLEARING
TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH IF REALIZED WILL EASILY SUPPORT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR NEW YEARS MORNING. THIS
WOULD BRING WIND CHILLS NEAR 0 AND DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN WELL WEDGED WITHIN THE THERMAL
TROUGH ON NEW YEARS DAY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S. SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS WINDS BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
WEST, RELEASING LAKE MOISTURE INLAND. AN ELEVATED FRONT PROVIDES SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BRIEFLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LIMITED. OUTSIDE OF THIS, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TO END THE WEEK ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
HOLD IN THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PIVOT OUT OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON. THIS AIRMASS WILL KEEP
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ELEVATED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IN TURN KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASED TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCES ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW GALES THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MAX OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR
A PERIOD THIS EVENING. SUB GALES, OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS, AND
FREEZING SPRAY THEN PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
AVIATION...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COLD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY OFFER
SOME ADDITIONAL INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY AT PTK/FNT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FLUCTUATION OF CEILING HEIGHT BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS LATE IN THE DAY, WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE
PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WESTERLY WIND TURNING GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, PEAKING NEAR 25 KNOTS.
FOR DTW...POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGHER INTENSITY BURSTS OF SNOW/BRIEF SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....MR
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