215
FXUS63 KDTX 150234
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
934 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS THROUGH THE IRISH HILLS AND METRO REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-
2", WITH SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HURON AND SANILAC
COUNTIES AS LAKE EFFECT BANDING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3-6".
- MUCH COLDER TOMORROW INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MORNING WIND CHILLS REACH
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY.
UPDATE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN INCLUDING METRO DETROIT WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. Z RETURNS ON KDTX IMAGERY
HAVE BEEN THINNING OUT THE PAST HOUR AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE IMPROVED
TO 1-2 SM AT THE DETROIT SITES. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE THUMB COUNTIES GIVING ADDITIONAL TIME FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDING TO SETUP. THUS FAR, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES WITH VERY
THIN BANDING OVER/NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WITH PORT HOPE
GUSTING TO 38 MPH IN THE LAST OBSERVATION WANT TO KEEP THE HEADLINE
GOING THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
AVIATION...
A VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THE CLOSING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE
ORGANIZED A SLOWING MOVING AREA OF LOW-MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY. INITIALIZED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL
DEFINED 800-700MB FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH A VERY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR CRYSTAL PRODUCTION BELOW THIS FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 4.5 KFT AGL. VERY LOW STABILITY TO CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ORGANIZED CONVERGENT BANDING FOR A TIME. MODELS DO SHOW A SLOW EXIT
TO THE FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE SO A MEASURED APPROACH WAS TAKEN
CALLING FOR TEMPO OF VLIFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN SN AT THE
DETROIT TERMINALS THROUGH 04Z. MIDLEVEL UVVS ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER 03Z WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO FLURRIES FOR
A TIME. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY WHEN VFR CEILINGS BECOME
PREVAILING WITH A TYPICAL DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FORECASTED. CLEARING
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUD LATE THURSDAY WITH CONFLUENCE
ALOFT.
FOR DTW...ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 04Z. VFR AFTER 07Z TONIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT LOW THURSDAY.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW.
* MODERATE FOR 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN SN BETWEEN 00-04Z.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAS
RAPIDLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE METRO
REGION AND DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, OUTSIDE OF THE METRO URBAN FOOTPRINT AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER, WHERE LOWS HOLD IN THE LOW TEENS. REGARDLESS
WITH SUSTAINED BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUST POTENTIAL OF 25 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY), WIND CHILLS ARE CAPPED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS
EVENING AND DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL IS NOW PASSING OVERHEAD
UNDER THE BACKDROP OF THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS SECONDARY
PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL GREATLY IMPROVE LLLR NOTING THE 0-1KM THETAE
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TO -2K/KM. THE NNW STREAMLINES PROMOTE ENHANCED
LAKE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BASIN, THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE WEST CWA, WITH
ADDED SUPPORT FROM LAKE HURON ACROSS THE THUMB. COUPLED WITH THE
ABOVE, THE UPPER-WAVE HAS ENHANCED FGEN ACROSS THE IRISH HILLS AND
INTO THE METRO REGION, WHICH IS QUITE EVIDENT ON RADAR. LOCALIZED
SNOW RATES BRING THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 1-2" OF ACCUMULATION BY
TONIGHT, WITH SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS SEEING MEASUREMENTS IN EXCESS OF
2".
FOR THE NORTHERN THUMB, LOW-LEVEL WIND STREAMLINES BACK FROM NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, SHARPENING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR THROUGH 800MB, WHERE THE INVERSION
RESIDES. THIS FAVORS THE GENERATION OF A MORE COHERENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND WITH SUFFICIENT LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY SUPPORTING SOME
OVERTURNING AND ENHANCED MOISTURE GENERATION OFF OF THE LAKE. CURRENT
GUIDANCE DEPICTS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDING TO ARRIVE INLAND THROUGH
HURON AND SANILAC COUNTY TONIGHT, POSSIBLY CLIPPING EASTERN TUSCOLA,
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3-6"
EXISTS. IT REMAINS NOTED THAT TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IF BAND RESIDENCE TIME IS MAXIMIZED AND SLR OF 20:1 ARE
REALIZED. AT THIS TIME, WITH CONFIDENCE ONLY LOW TO MODERATE TO SEE
ACHIEVEMENT OF 6+ INCHES, A HIGH-END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (WWA)
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTY. A SHORT FUSED ISSUANCE
OF A WWA WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TUSCOLA COUNTY IF THE BAND ARRIVES
FARTHER WEST THAN PROJECTED. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORT-FUSED UPGRADE TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL STILL BE OPTIMIZED IF ANY SNOW BANDING
HOLDS STATIONARY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A
CONCERN AS GUSTS TO 40 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
ENDED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS
NORTHERLY DRY ADVECTION INCREASES UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE, WITH THE
THUMB REGION BEING THE LAST LOCATION TO SEE SNOW CHANCES END.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE THUMB
AND LOW 20S ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS REMAIN CAPPED IN THE TEENS.
RENEWED SNOW CHANCES ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES AND LAGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS IN
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FAVORABLE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
WHERE TOTALS OF 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND DIRECTION VEER SOUTHWEST
TO WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO AID
WITH SNOW PRODUCTION. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS INITIALLY LAGGED BUT
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES. A SECONDARY CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
THEN IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES PERIOD ON MONDAY WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENHANCEMENT DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE 850
TEMPERATURES AOB -20C ENTER THE AREA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN ACTIVE
CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING SOUTH BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON'S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
EVENING. GIVEN THE FETCH, STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR AROUND THE THUMB AND
SOUTHERN HURON BASIN WHERE LOWER 30KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL PROBABILITIES TO REACH GALES REMAIN LOW, SUB 30%, WITH THE
EXPECTATION ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE BRIEF (HOUR OR TWO). AS SUCH, WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AROUND THE THUMB
NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ONLY TOP OUT
NEAR 30KTS ALSO WARRANTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT NO ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS LIKEWISE REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL NON-ICED WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
WINDS TURN LIGHTER SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS A RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES
OVERHEAD. INFLUENCE OF RIDGING DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW. WEAKER NATURE OF SAID LOW KEEPS SOUTH, TURNING WEST,
WINDS MORE MODERATE WITH PEAK GUSTS GENERALLY HOLDING UNDER 30KTS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ049-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.
UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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