386
FXUS63 KDTX 220509
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1209 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS ALONG/BETWEEN THE M-59 AND I-69
CORRIDORS COULD SEE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TOWARDS 2 INCHES.
- FLURRIES OR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DAYTIME THURSDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING BRINGS WIDER SPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH.
- AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS. MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS BELOW -15F EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
A QUICK PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO
START THIS TAF PERIOD AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z. GREATER FOCUS
FOR MORE INTENSE SHOWERS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS WILL BE BE ACROSS PTK
AND THE SOUTHERN METRO TERMINALS BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH
VARIABILITY IN CIGS AND VSBYS. A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CLOSER TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH IF MORE INTENSE BAND CAN MAINTAIN SOME
STRENGTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO
MOSTLY MVFR/IFR VSBYS UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS DURING THAT
TIME. WEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP LAKE MICHIGAN
ACTIVATED AND MAINTAIN LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN THROUGH 08-09Z EARLY
THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH IS MOST LIKELY.
CLOSER TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A MORE INTENSE BAND SETS UP
OVER DTW.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
* HIGH FOR PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING THE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE NORTH
THIS EVENING, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MI TONIGHT. STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFORDS
BOTH BETTER COVERAGE, RELATIVE TO EVENING, AND INTENSITIES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL SQUALLS, EXPECTED ALONG/BETWEEN THE M-59 AND I-69
CORRIDORS WHERE THE PARENT VORT MAX CROSSES ENHANCING LOCAL F-GEN
RESPONSE ALONG THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. MOST AREAS SEE BETWEEN 0.5-
1" OF NEW SNOWFALL TIED TO THIS WAVE, HOWEVER, AREAS UNDER THE AREA
FAVORED FOR STRONGER F-GEN HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS UP TO 2" ESPECIALLY IF A MORE W-E COMPONENT OF THE
ORIENTATION DEVELOPS- LIKE WHAT IS SEEN IN THE HRRR AND TO AN EXTENT
ARW.
COLDER AIR, 850MB FALLING TO -18C, SETTLES OVER LOWER MI BY THURSDAY
MORNING KICKING OFF THE TYPICAL LAKE RESPONSE. THAT SAID, THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER CLIPPER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DAYTIME
THURSDAY CAUSES THE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD TO SHIFT FROM WNW BACK TO
WSW HAMPERING CONTINUITY IN BANDS AND OVERALL LIMITING ACTIVITY OVER
SE MI TO MORE FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION. A BIT BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL COMES THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT IS DRIVEN ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDES A FOCAL POINT FOR THE RELEASE OF LAKE
MOISTURE EAST OVER OUR AREA SUPPORTING A HEALTHIER COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS CAPABLE OF A QUICK HALF TO
ONE INCH OF NEW SNOW.
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER THUS FAR FOLLOWS THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT NEAR -30C. COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
MAINTAINS BLUSTERY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
RESULTANT WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING REACH WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO 20 BELOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
AREAS. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY BRINGING CALMER WINDS THOUGH NO
THERMAL RECOVERY. IN FACT, THE HIGH PROMOTES CLEARER SKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW ACTUAL TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 0
TOWARDS -10F. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS TO REACH 25 BELOW ZERO. RIDGE
AXIS CROSSES SE MI BY THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY OFFERING A
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND LOWS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A BROAD SOUTHERN CONUS WINTER STORM AS A
PORTION OF ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLIPPING SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THIS
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN TRACK IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NBM EXTENDED
POPS WHICH INCREASED THIS CYCLE TO 40-50%.
MARINE...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
SUSTAIN LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL
VEER WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. THE CONTINUED DEPARTURE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A VERY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING
THE CONTINUATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS
WITH GUST POTENTIAL AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE SIGNAL FOR PROLONGED
GALES REMAINS BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
ACHIEVEMENT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON TOMORROW
EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL PRECLUDE ANY GALE PRODUCTS NOTING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHORT-FUSED UPGRADE IF MODEL TRENDS INCREASE
LEADING INTO THE EVENING. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED GIVEN THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC TEMPERATURES AND SUSTAINED
ELEVATED WINDS.
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCED. EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY WITHIN ANY SQUALL. A
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ARCTIC TEMPERATURES BUT WILL
ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.
CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 23RD.
DETROIT: 6 DEGREES (SET IN 1883)
FLINT: 6 DEGREES (SET IN 1959)
SAGINAW: 3 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
THE RECORD LOW MIN TEMPS FOR SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH.
DETROIT: -13 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
FLINT: -13 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
SAGINAW: -13 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH.
DETROIT: 4 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
FLINT: 5 DEGREES (SET IN 1963)
SAGINAW: 8 DEGREES (SET IN 1961)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ363-
462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......AM
CLIMATE......TF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page