233
FXUS63 KDTX 020839 AAA
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
439 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS
MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
RESIDE WEST OF US-23 WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER EAST
YOU ARE.
- DRIER AND STILL MILD FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
MID-UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING LIFTING THE
COLD FRONT STILL LINGERING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT ARE NOW BEGINNING TO REACH SE
MI AT TIME OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTING A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WORK NORTHWARD OVER THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY, OWING TO A LEAD ARM OF VORTICITY REACHING WEST
MI. FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MIDLAND/BAY COUNTIES- MAINLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE THE SAGINAW VALLEY, TEMPERATURES HOLD AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF PRECIPITATION MAINTAINING A
SHOT FOR SOME LEAD WINTRY MIX AND MINOR ICING UP TO A LIGHT GLAZE
BEFORE TEMPS WARM TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
COUNTIES, OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FAVORING AN AS NEEDED SHORT-
FUSED SPS INSTEAD. ELSEWHERE, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN THE
BROADER SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS ELEVATED THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN LOWER GENERATES A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE.
SHOWER COVERAGE LESSENS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARM CONVEYOR
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN LOWER/LAKE HURON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TIMEFRAME WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LIKELY
DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW NOT REACHING WI UNTIL ~00Z, THERE REMAINS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WEAKLY FORCED/SLOW MOVING SURFACE WARM
FRONT THAT DOESN'T REACH THE SOUTHERNMOST MI COUNTIES UNTIL ~20Z.
GIVEN THIS MODEL SIGNAL AND TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH WEAKLY DRIVEN WARM FRONTS, ITS EXPECTED THAT PRECEDING ESE WIND
OFF ST CLAIR AND ERIE IMPINGE ON THE FRONT'S NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OVER SE MI (WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP IN HIGH-RES MODELS). THIS
RESULTS IN SBCAPE RESIDING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST (AS ITS ABLE
TO LIFT MORE FREELY OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE)
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. ANYTHING THAT MANAGES TO
INITIATE OFF THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WILL
STRUGGLE TO STAY ROOTED IN THE SURFACE LAYER AS IT PUSHES OFF THE
BOUNDARY AND INTO SE MI AS COOLER ESE WINDS MAINTAIN STRONG 0-1KM
STABILITY. MAIN CHANCES FOR WIDER SPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS (AND
OUTLOOKED SEVERE POTENTIAL) ARRIVE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING, AFTER
~22-00Z, WHEN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES LOWER MI. BY THIS POINT,
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE BUCKLING INTO AREAS WEST OF US-23 AS
LLJ FULLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN LOWER (45-60KTS DOWN TO
925MB). AS A RESULT, THESE AREAS STAND THE 'BEST' SHOT TO SEE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60MPH BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT THOUGH GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF COLUMN WINDS ALOFT,
GUSTS NEARING 70MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN'T
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, AROUND 6 C/KM AT BEST, LIMITING LARGE (1")
HAIL POTENTIAL. HODOGRAPHS LOSE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE AS THE EVENING
GOES ON, TURNING UNIDIRECTIONAL, CONFINING ANY TORNADO CHANCE TO THE
LEAD LINE OF STORMS- GIVEN FAVORED LINEAR STORM MODE, THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A QLCS TOR TYPE THOUGH AGAIN, LOW PROBABILITY OF ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DISLODGE AND WASH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH,
HOWEVER DUE TO OCCURING AROUND/AFTER SUNSET, IT DOES NOT RESULT TO A
MARKED RESPONSE IN SBCAPE WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING LARGELY
ELEVATED. THAT SAID, THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PARTIALLY MAINTAIN STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THOUGH PROBABLY
WITH A WEAKENING TREND FURTHER EAST THEY GET. ADDITIONALLY THE WARM
FRONT WASHING THROUGH DOES REDUCE EARLIER NEAR-SURFACE STABILITY
PROVIDING LESS INHIBITION FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. AS SUCH,
OUTLOOKED SLIGHT RISKS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS NEARLY ALL OF
SE MI. SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-
FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORTING SPARSER (THUNDER)SHOWER COVERAGE.
A STRONGER MID-UPPER CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INDUCES A DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISE RESPONSE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES STALLING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EITHER OVER SOUTHERN SE
MI OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IN/OH. THIS TROUGH TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK
TO TODAY'S SYSTEM PLACING THE CWA AGAIN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS
THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE LOW WORKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH ITS COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSING SATURDAY
EVENING. WHILE KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS (BULK
SHEAR >40KTS AND SRH >200 M2/S2), SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS
UNCERTAIN WITH MID-RANGE MODELS SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND/START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -8 TO -10C KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50.
MARINE
THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED WAVES INTO SAGINAW BAY AND ACROSS
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE, WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. THE LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, EASTERLY
WINDS BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN WATERS OF LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 3 CONSECUTIVE HOUR CRITERIA TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
ADDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE TO REACH GALES OVER THE SAGINAW
BAY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS SOUTHWEST (WITHIN BROADER
SOUTH TO WEST VEERING). RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY LEADING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
LEADING TO WIND GUSTS AOA 34 KNOTS.
HYDROLOGY
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN WINDOWS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-69, THIS EVENING-EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA, SATURDAY MORNING, AND SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY, THEREFORE ANY
FLOODING WILL BE TIED TO LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST
FREQUENCY OF REPEAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TODAY, RAINFALL
TOTALS RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH OVER METRO DETROIT TO AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES. THE QPF FOOTPRINT IS BROADER FOR
SATURDAY WITH 0.50-0.75 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THOUGH SOME AREAS NEARING 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. FLOODING SHOULD
PREDOMINANTLY BE LIMITED TO POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS, BUT
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FLOODING
CONCERNS. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS PLACE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN MARGINAL RISK AREAS, BOTH DAYS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......SS
HYDROLOGY....KDK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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