287
FXUS63 KDTX 090946
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
446 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT,
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 TUESDAY, THEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
MID LEVEL CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO STREAM INTO SE MI EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
CLOUD INCREASES IN THICKNESS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS (5-6KFT) BEGINNING TO REACH THE AREA MID TO LATE
MORNING. THIS LOWER CLOUD IS TIED TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH NOW OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS TO KEEPS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY- HOLDING BELOW 10KTS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
DISCUSSION...
IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY AS EARLY MORNING TEMPS
WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SE MI. THE EASTWARD
DEPARTURE OF A LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST WILL OPEN THE DOOR
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO SE MI. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN INBOUND UPPER JET
STREAK WILL DRIVE A BROAD REGION OF GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT. THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT
ASCENT IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH
AND A SHORTER PERIOD OF ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE ASCENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE 00Z NAM AND
CANADIAN ARE SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH POPS AND RELATIVELY LOW QPF, SEVERAL
HI RES SOLUTION REMAIN DRY. IN LIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION, CHANCE TYPE POPS REMAIN JUSTIFIED. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE THUMB, WARRANTING HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA. THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KNOT 925MB JET WILL
LIFT INTO SRN LOWER MI TONIGHT, DRIVING A RESPECTABLE ELEVATED WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE SUB FREEZING BOUNDARY
LAYER, ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
WARRANT ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
PHASE WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW ROTATING FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY TUESDAY, DRIVING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE MI TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGER PUSH OF
POST FRONTAL COLD AIR LAGGING THE SFC FRONT, DIURNAL MIXING WILL
HELP BOOST TUESDAY HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLY LOW 40S.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN INCREASE MARKEDLY LATE TUES
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BRING
SEASONALLY COLD CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -11C WED MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS IN RECENT WEEKS, HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WILL SUSTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW TO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT
DRAWS AN INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW ACROSS LAKE HURON TONIGHT THROUGH MID
DAY TUESDAY. THIS IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IMMEDIATE WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA, FOLLOWED BY A
RAMP UP IN WIND GUSTS AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES. WIND GUSTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
FALLS JUST SHORT OF GALE WATCH THRESHOLDS (40-50%). WITH UPSTREAM
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINING LARGELY ICE-FREE, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO LAKE HURON THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FILLS IN LATE WEEK TO SUPPORT DRIER
CONDITIONS AND RELAXING WIND/WAVE TRENDS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......MV
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