952
FXUS63 KDTX 131759
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1259 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
AREA OF DRY AND STABLE AIR OCCUPIES THE LOCAL AIRSPACE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE COMMANDS VFR CONDITIONS. GOES
IMAGERY REVEALS SOME STREAKS OF HIGH CIRRUS ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST,
AND MODEL DATA INDICATES MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LIFT INTO THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, LEADING
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CEILINGS ABOVE 20 KFT AGL. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE STRENGTH
OF WESTERLY WINDS. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE AS LOW-
LEVEL WINDS LEVEL-OFF AND NOCTURNAL STABILITY CUTS THE MIXING
CONNECTION SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE THEN FILLS IN
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BROAD COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 10 KFT AGL
OVER THE TAF SITES. THIS CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
DISCUSSION...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE SUBSEQUENT BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE THUMB THIS MORNING TIED
TO THE PLUME OF LAKE MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR-HURON,
BUT CLOUDS WILL ADVECT EAST AND SCOUR OUT AS FLOW BACKS. WHILE STILL
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH, THE COLDEST AIR NOW
RESIDES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. COUPLED WITH SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 50 DEGREES THROUGH A
GREATER PORTION OF THE CWA, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITHIN THE IRISH
HILLS AND THUMB.
OVERNIGHT, LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE GREATER PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EAST AS A SOUTHERN WAVE STREAMS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE
A SECOND WAVE STARTS TO AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PSEUDOSTATIONARY FRONT
POSITIONED ACROSS THE PLAINS TO ACCELERATE EAST AS A WARM FRONT,
WHICH WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SE MI THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT AND
FLEETING SHOWERS. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
COLUMN MOISTURE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE BOOST IN WAA AND CLEARING OF ANY EARLY DAY
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH THROUGH THE 50 DEGREE
MARK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACCELERATES SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, THE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS WILL
FOLD INTO MICHIGAN WITH 850 TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND 10C BETWEEN
12Z SAT - 18Z SAT, CORRELATING TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LAGGED COLD FRONT DOES BRING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WITH
ILL DEFINED STRUCTURE UNDER A WELL CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, RAIN
EFFICIENCY WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. ENSEMBLE QPF RANGING BETWEEN
1" TO .2" FOR TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE QUITE STEEP AROUND 7.5C/KM, SO WHILE INSTABILITY IS LACKING, A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CAA QUICKLY RAMPS IN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, RETURNING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S FOR A
HIGH AND 20S FOR A LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS
MICHIGAN WILL BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE, BUT ANY
SORT OF OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL CAN BE MODULATED FROM A POLAR HIGH
THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
MARINE...
THIS MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME STRONGER WINDS AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL ALIGNED THROUGH NORTH TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON, WHERE THE
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALIGNS. PERIODIC GUSTS TO GALES CONTINUES TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, BUT WILL PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SHORT-FUSED GALE WARNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD LATER THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THIS, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AROUND THE TIP
OF THE THUMB DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED WAVES. SAID HIGH DRIFTS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHTER WINDS. NEXT LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO IS SET TO
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN-SNOW
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. TRAILING COLD AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE STRONGER
THEN THE ONE WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING A GOOD SHOT (~60-70%) AT SEEING NW
GALES SUNDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
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