741
FXUS63 KDTX 122251
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
651 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WEST OF US-23.
- COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY TO START THE NEW WEEK WITH 80S ON
SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN AN ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM MISSOURI ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY SUSTAIN LIMITED LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS. A SUBTLE INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASING IN
CLOUDS IN THE 5000 TO 6000 FT LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLY WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE (<30 PERCENT)
FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS METRO DETROIT. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE HURON
WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUSTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE, LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO. THE EASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A STEADY FEED OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH HELPED KEEP
EARLY DAY SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM AS THE 700MB FGEN BAND WEAKENED,
RESULTING IN A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT, THE
ACTIVATED ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT RESIDES WELL TO OUR NORTH
OVER NORTHERN LOWER WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING UP TOWARD THE REGION SO REALLY NO FORCING TO HELP DEVELOP
ANY SHOWERS LOCALLY. A RIPPLE IN THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SW LOWER MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CAMS ADVERTISING THEM TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE US23 CORRIDOR.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COVERAGE WITH THIS SO WILL KEEP A ISOLATED
POP MENTION FOR THE FAR WEST.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH ELEVATED FORCING CAN EMANATE AWAY
FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN LOWER...WHILE A SHEARING OUT
SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER AT THE SAME TIME? WE'LL
HAVE SOME MENTION OF POPS FOR THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH WHILE
LOCATIONS AROUND M59 TO I69 STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE STRETCH. HARD TO FIND MUCH OF ANY INSTABILITY IN THE
MODELS SO WE'LL HOLD THUNDER OUT WHILE MENTIONING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OFFERS A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
COMPLETELY KEEPING SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS LOWER MI SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE WEEK WITH ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES
PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AT LEAST.
MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC, WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE
HURON, WITH 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......SS
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