128
FXUS63 KGRR 221839
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
139 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEEKEND
- WARMER INTO MIDWEEK, RAIN CHANCES, THEN COOLER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AT 11AM WITH A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES IN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN IS LOCATED IN A ZONE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS GRADUALLY BRINGING IN WARM AIR TO THE
REGION.
WE HAVE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT LAKE
STRATOCUMULUS PRODUCTION IS OCCURRING WITH LAKE WATER TEMPS NEAR
+2C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -9C. DELTA T'S OF 10 OR MORE PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND WE ARE AT 11C AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING WE WARM THE AIR AT 925MB WHICH SHOULD ERODE THE LAKE
STRATOCU. OTHERWISE, WE HAVE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORKING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
IT WILL BE A BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
AROUND 30 DEGREES WHICH IS A TOUCH BELOW NORMALS WHICH ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
- DRY WEEKEND
IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STATE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU MOVING OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL CWA. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THAT PORTENDS WHAT
WE'LL SEE THIS WEEKEND: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL CWA SHOULD DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 20S...A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN
WE'LL SEE TODAY, BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL SOME WARMER AIR
INTO THE CWA AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
- WARMER INTO MIDWEEK, RAIN CHANCES, THEN COOLER
A SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN.
THAT'LL BE FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY. THE
THURSDAY TROUGH WILL LIKELY DRAW DOWN SOME COLDER AIR SUCH THAT
EARLY RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S,
BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DUE TO THE LAKE WEEK UPPER TROUGH;
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CAMS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE TIMING VARIES, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE BETWEEN 12Z TO 17Z AND MAINLY
AFFECTING MKG, GRR AND POSSIBLY LAN. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18Z SUNDAY. GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS WILL END AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. GUSTY
WINDS UPWARDS OF ONLY 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
UPDATE...DUKE
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...CERU
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