313
FXUS63 KGRR 211516
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022
WE ARE RAIN-FREE CURRENTLY ALTHOUGH MORE SHOWERS ARE NOSING
NORTHEAST FROM CHICAGO/KENOSHA/MILWAUKEE AND ANOTHER BATCH NEAR
VALPARAISO IS WORKING TOWARD I-94. SO DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL
WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE/SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER THREAT HAS LOWERED WITH MAIN MUCAPE
GRADIENT NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF HERE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES AVAILABLE PER RAP GUIDANCE AND A FEW LTG STRIKES
NOTED CURRENTLY IN NRN IL SO WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM THIS
AFTERNOON (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96). NO SVR WX EXPECTED SINCE WE'RE
FIRMLY ON THE COOL/STABLE NRN SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT NOW.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022
..LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY, THEN AN INCREASE TONIGHT
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
FROM SAGINAW BAY SOUTHWEST TO TULSA. THE BAND WAS SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTHEAST AND WAS ELEVATED IN NATURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM FLINT TO NEAR JACKSON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR GRAND RAPIDS THROUGH 9 AM OR SO BEFORE THE
THREAT MOVES EAST. CAMS SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL WANING AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND ONE WAVE MOVES AWAY. AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR TOLEDO,
THE NEXT WAVE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG IT TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE CWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN TO
ALMA LINE. THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TONIGHT AND SO MUCH
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
..DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
DESPITE SUNSHINE SUNDAY, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. A SLOW WARMING
TREND WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY.
..WET THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY LOCKED INTO THE IDEA OF
ANOTHER LOW MOVING OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW HAS A LOT OF GULF
MOISTURE WITH IT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND LOW THURSDAY. THAT WILL
KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
THE 60S THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE 70S SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022
CURRENTLY WE HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS NEAR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OR NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAN TO BTL, NORTH OF THAT IT IS VFR.
THERE ARE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THAT SAME
LINE TOO. I AM EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AND WEAKEN BY LATE THIS MORNING. I SEEMS TO ME THE WAVE ON
THE FRONT CAUSING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF OUR
AREA BY LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD GIVE ALL OF OUR TAF SITES VFR
CONDITIONS INTO LATE AFTERNOON. THEN THE NEXT AND FINAL WAVE ON
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH THE MVFR CIGS/VSBY GET THIS EVENING WITH THIS NEXT AND
FINAL AREA OF SHOWERS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022
DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE LAKE AND SCOURING
OUT THE FOG. AS SUCH, WE HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WIND
AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
UPDATE...MEADE
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...WDM
MARINE...04
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