602
FXUS63 KGRR 262350
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY/WEDNESDAY
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY/WEDNESDAY, COOLER BY THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY/WEDNESDAY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL END SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS
TOMORROW THE REGION WILL BE IN THE SAME AIR MASS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION FORMING TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE. DAYTIME TEMPEATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
80S.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD FORM BETWEEN THOSE
SYSTEMS AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE
REGION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, THAT COUPLED WITH THE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES HAVE +2 ANOMALOUS PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
COUPLE THAT WITH THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT AND THERE ARE ALL THE
INGREDIENTS FOR DECENT STORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW
FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WHERE IT COULD STALL THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
IT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD WITH DRY COLD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY/WEDNESDAY, COLD TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND
THE TEMPERATURE TREND THIS WEEK IS WARMER THEN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW. MUSKEGON HAS ALREADY BROKEN THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE TO BREAK RECORDS
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AS WELL, THOUGH CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SHOW IT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL PUT A KIBOSH ON THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK. A DRIER, COLDER AIR MASS WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL DROP MAX TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL
FOR TEMPS IN THE MID 30S NORTH OF EVART AND REED CITY. SO WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED IFR
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTER 15Z AS SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020
WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT POSE A THREAT TO BOATERS TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020
THE GRAND RIVER AT COMSTOCK PARK AND ROBINSON TOWNSHIP ARE
CONTINUING TO FALL BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LACK OF BASIN-WIDE RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
A STEADY FALL ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. RUNOFF
FROM THAT RAINFALL MAY SLOW THE RATE OF FALL OF SOME RIVERS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020
RECORD WARMEST LOWS FOR MAY 27:
GRR 69 (1987)
LAN 70 (1908)
MKG 67 (1987)
AZO 70 (1941)
RECORD HIGHS MAY 27
GRR 93 (2018)
LAN 93 (1911)
MKG 87 (2018)
AZO 94 (2012)
RECORD LOWS MAY 31
GRR 36 (1966)
LAN 32 (1966)
MKG 35 (1910)
AZO 36 (1889, 1897)
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CERU
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...OSTUNO
MARINE...04
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