323
FXUS63 KGRR 240802
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
402 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
DISCUSSION/MARINE
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023
-- WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY --
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT...WE ARE ADDING A FEW COUNTIES INTO A WINTER
STORM WATCH UP AGAINST APX'S AREA. MASON, OCEANA AND LAKE COUNTIES
WILL BE NOW BE IN A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH
OF SATURDAY.
UPPER WAVE THAT BRINGS A MIX OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN NM/TX. THE UPPER WAVE RACES OUR DIRECTION
TODAY ON A 100-120 KNOT UPPER JET. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM
ABOUT 1000MB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO BELOW 990MB BY 12Z ON
SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE TRENDED
A BIT TOWARDS EACH OTHER. LEANING ON THE GEFS MSLP OUTPUT WE FEEL
THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO LAKE HURON. WE
FEEL THE AREA THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATIONS
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLY WILL BE OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA
TOWARDS LUDINGTON, HART AND BALDWIN. THERE IS A CHANCE ESPECIALLY
IF A BIT FURTHER EAST TRACK VERIFIES THAT WARNING SNOWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
EVART AND CLARE AS WELL. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN THAT OCCURRING SO
HELD OFF ON THOSE AREAS. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN I-96 AND U.S. 10 AS A NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREAD
NEAR TO POSSIBLY JUST BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE PROFILE AND WET BULB AFFECTS BRING FREEZING
RAIN INTO THE PICTURE. WE WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS ON THE DAY SHIFT TODAY IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE
NORTHWEST CWA MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 8 INCHES. 6+ INCH TOTALS
SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A TENTH OF SO OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CHANGES IT OVER TO RAIN.
-- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD --
A WEAK WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL AND WE THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
20 PCT POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
LATER IN THE WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXISTS AS FIRST A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEEKS END.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023
CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI IMPACTING AZO,
BTL, AND JXN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVECT FROM
EAST TO WEST AND SHOULD CLEAR AZO BY MID-DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023
WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. THE
TIME FRAME OF CONCERN IS LATER TONIGHT AND MORE SO INTO SATURDAY.
AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH STRONGER OFF SHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WAVES WILL BE ON THE
LOWER SIDE. SO WITH WIND BEING THE ONLY COMPONENT, IT COMING AT
NIGHT AND IT BEING EARLY IN THE BOATING SEASON WE HAVE HELD OFF.
THE BIGGER CONCERN IS SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. 35-40 KNOT NORTHWEST GALES LOOK TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTINGENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. GIVEN A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THOUGH
THAT WE MAY NEED A SCA TONIGHT TRANSITIONING INTO A GALE ON
SATURDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ037-038-043.
LM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...THIELKE
MARINE...DUKE
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