675
FXUS63 KGRR 080421
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT
- CLIPPER GOES NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN
- WEEKEND STORM POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHEARING OUT AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP
THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SNOW OVERCOMES LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE BY LATE
EVENING. F-GEN BANDING CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SHOULD TRANSLATE SE AND CLIP ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACCUMS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A NARROW AREA WHERE BANDING
OCCURS. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FAIR AND COLD WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- CLIPPER GOES NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND INTO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY, BUT MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK
RATHER DRY AND CHANCE OF SNOW IS LOW THERE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
DURING THIS TIME BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS FOR MID-WEEK AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES EAST.
- WEEKEND STORM POTENTIAL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EITHER
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES OR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AT THIS POINT BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION CLOSELY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN, POTENTIALLY GRAZING THE TAF SITES OF MKG, AZO AND GRR.
HAVE OPTED TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW INTO AZO (6SM -SN) AND
VCSH TO THE OTHER TWO SITES. MOISTURE TAKES A WHILE TO SATURATE IN
THE LOW LEVELS AT THESE SITES AND OVERALL THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
LITTLE TO NO SNOW AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR ONLY
DIPPING TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT AZO. ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND CEILINGS WILL
THEN LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MORE INTO A MID DECK WITH BASES
AT OR ABOVE 7,000 FEET. BY SUNDAY EVENING WE WILL BE SCATTERING
OUT. BOTTOM LINE, VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FROM 06Z TO 06Z. THE ONLY PLACE
OF CONCERN WOULD BE AZO WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL OF SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 6SM FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARDS 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
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