601
FXUS63 KGRR 112357
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
- DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
- RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
- A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
WE ARE SEEING THE BAND OF MAINLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE BELOW 6-8K FT IS
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, AND THE REASON WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF BREAK IN THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SFC SYSTEM. WE WILL
SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURN OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WE SEE A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. AT THAT TIME WE HAVE THE EXACT OPPOSITE PROBLEM AS COMPARED
TO NOW. THAT IS WE HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF LOWER MOISTURE, BUT NOTHING
MUCH ABOVE 6K FT AGL.
REGARDING THE MOISTURE TYPE, THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL MAINLY COLD
ENOUGH TO FAVOR SNOWFLAKES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
MELTING LAYER QUITE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPANDING UP THE
COLUMN THIS EVENING. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW
FLAKES TO START, AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WOULD ALSO HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW A LITTLE LONGER UP THERE.
- DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE SHORT WAVE AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIFT NE, AND ALLOW THE FLOW OVER THE AREA TO TRANSITION FROM
CYCLONIC TO ANTI-CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL THEN
ALLOW CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY A BIT, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KICK IN AND WARM SFC TEMPS A BIT MORE. THIS ALL WITH SOME
UNCOMMON SUNNY NOVEMBER DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND TUESDAY
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SW LATER FRIDAY WILL PUSH UP TOWARD
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME VERY
MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS AND CLIP THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
APPROACHING 10C BY SATURDAY MORNING HERE. THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY ADVECT IN FROM THE
GULF TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CORE OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE EXPANDING ALONG THE FRONT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
BECOME JUST A SLIGHT BIT UNSTABLE, JUST ENOUGH FOR A STORM TO BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING.
WE QUICKLY DRY OUT BY SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING A BIT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WE SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE UPPER JET WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BE CONFLUENT, HELPING FOR SUBSIDENCE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFT UP FROM THE SW AS THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN OF A TROUGH OUT WEST AND DEEP SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT A SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD
OF THE PARENT TROUGH WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND DRAW SOME GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH SOME WARMER AIR ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
LLWS IS PRESENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN (AZO, BTL, JXN). MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE PREVALENT NORTH
OF MKG, GRR, AND LAN, BUT WILL BECOME MORE COMMON EVERYWHERE ELSE
AFTER 06 Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY AND WIND GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN
DURING THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
GALE CRITERIA IS ON SCHEDULE AS THRESHOLDS ARE STARTING TO BE MET AT
THE LAKESHORE. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN NOW
AND 00Z, WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF AFTER THAT. ONCE THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRES THIS EVENING, A SCA WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
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