026
FXUS63 KGRR 142352
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
-WEEKEND CLOUDS; FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
-NIGHTS NOT QUITE AS COLD
-LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
--WEEKEND CLOUDS; FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES--
WE MAY START OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE EARLY SATURDAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SEND THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION. THE CONTINUED DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
FEND OFF INCOMING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, AT LEAST
INITIALLY. IF THINGS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH WE COULD HAVE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND BY LATER IN THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS PASSING THROUGH.
MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAN ON SATURDAY, BUT DIURNAL CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE THE LAKESHORE WILL
EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IF/WHEN THE STABLE/COOL LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, PUSHING THE CUMULUS FIELD EAST WITH
IT.
AFTER LIGHT WINDS THE LAST FEW DAYS, WIND SPEEDS DO COME UP A BIT
ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH SFC RH VALUES REMAINING
QUITE LOW, WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ELEVATED WITH EXISTING
DRY FORESTS AND BRUSH AND HIGHS NEAR 70. SFC RHS DO RECOVER
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP UP BUT UNTIL WE GET
APPRECIABLE RAIN THE FUELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ON ANY BREEZY DAYS
GOING FORWARD.
--NIGHTS NOT QUITE AS COLD--
AFTER NIGHT AFTER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST
WEEK, NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS WILL FINALLY MODERATE A BIT GOING
FORWARD. THEY'LL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE WIDESPREAD FROST
THREAT HAS FINALLY ENDED. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL LWR MI, SINCE THE INCOMING HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK MOSTLY THIN. ALSO DEW POINTS ARE STILL VERY LOW TODAY
(PRIMARILY IN THE 20S) WHICH WILL ALLOW READINGS TO FALL OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. DEW POINTS AFTER TONIGHT WILL RECOVER
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROST.
--LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK--
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD SRN LWR MI, BUT WE STILL HAVE
LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO SUSPECT THIS WILL BE SHEARED OUT
AND MOST OF IT WON'T MAKE INTO THE STATE. AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE
RIDGING PREVAILS AGAIN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, SO OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WORSEN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST OF THE SITES.
WE HAVE HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH BASED CIRRUS, AND MAYBE SOME
REMNANTS OF THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS OVER WI WILL FLOAT BY
OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDS AROUND 7-8K FT WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE COURSE OF
SATURDAY. RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOME SHOWERS WILL TRY TO
MOVE OVER KMKG. FEEL LIKE THE DRY AIR WILL EVAPORATE THESE INITIAL
SHOWERS. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 00Z SUN, AND SO TOO WILL
BE THE LOWER CLOUDS BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS REMAINING TRANQUIL WITH LK MI WAVE
HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND OR FOOT OR LESS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AT
5 TO 15 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
DISCUSSION...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...MEADE
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