352
FXUS63 KGRR 051933
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
333 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2020
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2020
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2020
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 20,000FT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FACT THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE TO ABOVE
70F AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS IN THE AREA MUCH OF
THIS TIME SO WE ARE EXPECTING OCCASIONAL MCS'S DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME IN
TERMS OF WHETHER THE BOUNDARY WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OR
HANGS UP IN OUR REGION. WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE MID
NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME IF THE FRONT HANGS UP IN OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2020
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE A CUMULUS DECK
THAT HAS FILLED IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH BROKEN CEILINGS AND
SOME AREAS THAT REMAIN SCATTERED. WE ARE EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CUMULUS TO REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CURRENT PRESENTATION
ON SATELLITE. RIDGING BUILDING IN THIS EVENING AND THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE CUMULUS TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY.
CEILING HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 5,000FT.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM (ONE IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND ONE IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA) THAT WILL SPREAD SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS
SHOULD BE ABOVE 15,000FT SO NO ISSUES TO AVIATION.
A WEST WIND OF 10-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE TO CALM THIS
EVENING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEN
THROUGH 18Z ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2020
WIND THIS MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KNOTS RESULTED IN SOME
2-3 FOOTERS IN PORTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
THESE WAVES SHOULD DAMPEN OUT AND DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE QUITE LIGHT, UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS OR BEACH HAZARD WORRIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR DECENT WIND WILL COME ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
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