567
FXUS63 KGRR 190247
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
947 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
- SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
- SUBZERO WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
- LOWS MONDAY MORNING 0 TO 10 BELOW
- SNOWSTORM/MIXED PRECIP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE CURRENT SNOW EVENT IS JUST GETTING UNDERWAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
SLOWLY SATURATING AND WE'RE SEEING THE DONUT HOLE ON THE RADAR
SLOWLY FILL IN. SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED ALONG I-94 AND THAT WILL
MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR 1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT ALONG I-96
AND 2-4 INCHES ALONG I-94 ALONG WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
BANDS OF SNOW IN AREA OF STRONG MID-LEVEL F-GEN ARE TRANSLATING
EAST FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS I-96 CORRIDOR AND 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS I-94 BY THE
TIME THE SNOW ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND ARW SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST BAND, ORIENTED EAST-WEST, TO BE
CENTERED IN BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94. AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA THAT
REMAIN UNDER THE BAND THE LONGEST COULD SEE 6 PLUS INCHES STORM
TOTALS.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE COLD FOLLOWING THE STORM. THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURE, COMBINING WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES, FALL BELOW ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR ZERO SUNDAY MORNING, ONLY RISING TO THE
MID TEENS SUNDAY THEN, WITH SFC RIDGING AND CLEAR SKIES, PLUMMET
SUNDAY NIGHT TO AS COLD AS 10 BELOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM ARRIVES TUESDAY AND MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT, LIMITING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE POTENTIAL IS STILL
THERE FOR HEAVY SNOW, ALONG WITH A MIX TO SLEET AND RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATE SON
THIS STORM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
SNOW WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LEADING TO IMPACTS AT THE
TAF SITES. THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE FROM
KAZO TO KBTL TO KJXN. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS
HEAVIER SNOW BAND AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE LOCATED
FURTHER NORTH. THE SNOW WILL MOVE IN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
NOT PULL AWAY TIL LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECASTED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS VERY
COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND A RAPID BUILDUP OF LAKE ICE
ALONG THE SHORE CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ICE GROWTH ON
OUR RIVERS. SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF
NEW ICE GROWTH. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MANY OF OUR STREAMS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A SOLID COVER OF ICE. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WILL BE OUR
MOST VULNERABLE WINDOW FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM. LOCATIONS PRONE TO ICE
JAM FLOODING SHOULD PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO THE RIVERS AND PREPARE
NOW FOR POSSIBLE FAST CHANGES IN WATER LEVELS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ056>059-
064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...AMD
MARINE...OSTUNO
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