026  
FXUS63 KGRR 142352  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
752 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
AVIATION  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
-WEEKEND CLOUDS; FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES  
 
-NIGHTS NOT QUITE AS COLD  
 
-LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
--WEEKEND CLOUDS; FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES--  
 
WE MAY START OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE EARLY SATURDAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE  
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SEND THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS  
INTO THE REGION. THE CONTINUED DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL  
FEND OFF INCOMING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, AT LEAST  
INITIALLY. IF THINGS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH WE COULD HAVE A FEW LIGHT  
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND BY LATER IN THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS A  
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE  
SHORTWAVE IS PASSING THROUGH.  
 
MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE A  
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. THIS MAY ALLOW  
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAN ON SATURDAY, BUT DIURNAL CLOUDS  
AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM  
LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE THE LAKESHORE WILL  
EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IF/WHEN THE STABLE/COOL LAKE BREEZE  
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, PUSHING THE CUMULUS FIELD EAST WITH  
IT.  
 
AFTER LIGHT WINDS THE LAST FEW DAYS, WIND SPEEDS DO COME UP A BIT  
ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH SFC RH VALUES REMAINING  
QUITE LOW, WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ELEVATED WITH EXISTING  
DRY FORESTS AND BRUSH AND HIGHS NEAR 70. SFC RHS DO RECOVER  
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP UP BUT UNTIL WE GET  
APPRECIABLE RAIN THE FUELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND AN ELEVATED  
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ON ANY BREEZY DAYS  
GOING FORWARD.  
 
--NIGHTS NOT QUITE AS COLD--  
 
AFTER NIGHT AFTER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST  
WEEK, NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS WILL FINALLY MODERATE A BIT GOING  
FORWARD. THEY'LL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE WIDESPREAD FROST  
THREAT HAS FINALLY ENDED. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST  
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL LWR MI, SINCE THE INCOMING HIGH  
CLOUDS LOOK MOSTLY THIN. ALSO DEW POINTS ARE STILL VERY LOW TODAY  
(PRIMARILY IN THE 20S) WHICH WILL ALLOW READINGS TO FALL OFF  
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. DEW POINTS AFTER TONIGHT WILL RECOVER  
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROST.  
 
--LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK--  
 
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT  
TRIES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD SRN LWR MI, BUT WE STILL HAVE  
LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO SUSPECT THIS WILL BE SHEARED OUT  
AND MOST OF IT WON'T MAKE INTO THE STATE. AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE  
RIDGING PREVAILS AGAIN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK, SO OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WORSEN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LITTLE TO NO  
IMPACTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST OF THE SITES.  
 
WE HAVE HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH  
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH BASED CIRRUS, AND MAYBE SOME  
REMNANTS OF THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS OVER WI WILL FLOAT BY  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE CLOUDS AROUND 7-8K FT WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE COURSE OF  
SATURDAY. RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOME SHOWERS WILL TRY TO  
MOVE OVER KMKG. FEEL LIKE THE DRY AIR WILL EVAPORATE THESE INITIAL  
SHOWERS. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 00Z SUN, AND SO TOO WILL  
BE THE LOWER CLOUDS BE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS REMAINING TRANQUIL WITH LK MI WAVE  
HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND OR FOOT OR LESS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AT  
5 TO 15 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT POSSIBLE  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ON  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MEADE  
DISCUSSION...MEADE  
AVIATION...NJJ  
MARINE...MEADE  
 
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