971
FXUS63 KGRR 021936
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/CLIMATE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. BIG UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD WITH 588 DAM HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS A BIT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. MOST
LOCATIONS FALLING JUST SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DAY THOUGH (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS). SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
THERE REMAINS MEDIUM TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
DRIVING A COOL DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY THE
START OF A MODERATING TREND NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF A ROSSBY WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM
AMPLIFYING AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES FROM CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
MIDWEEK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEKEND. SOME NUANCE IN THE
DETAILS AND A FEW OUTLIER SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND STILL LINGER.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDER, AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
RANGE OF RAIN TOTALS FROM THIS RANGES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH,
THOUGH TOTALS LEAN CLOSER TO 0.75 INCH IN SOUTHERN MICH. THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY IS RELATIVELY WIDE
DEPENDENT ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT, WITH THE
MIDDLE 50 PERCENT OF ECE MEMBERS RANGING ANYWHERE IN THE 60S (THIS
IMPLIES AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF HIGHS IN THE 50S OR 70S ALSO). WHILE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS ARE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO OVER THE WEEKEND, SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE
NUMBER OF MEMBERS AMONG THE EURO, GFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
SHOWING HIGHER-END RAIN AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS IS NOT THE FAVORED OUTCOME AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WEAK WINDS BETWEEN SE AND SW. ONLY
CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT WILL COME FROM
PATCHES OF FOG/MIST, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY RAMPING UP THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HOLLAND. CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT A
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MARINE ZONES. A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD ON THE LAKE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS COLD AIR/MORE FALL-LIKE
PATTERN ARRIVES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
RECORD HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MON TUE WED
GRAND RAPIDS 87 - 1971 85 - 1953,'19,'00 87 - 1951
MUSKEGON 83 - 1971, '53 83 - 2018 83 - 1951
LANSING 86 - 1922 90 - 1898 86 - 1951,'00
KALAMAZOO 89 - 1897 88 - 1953 90 - 1951
BATTLE CREEK 88 - 1971 88 - 1953 87 - 1951
JACKSON 87 - 1971 89 - 1953 90 - 1951
HOLLAND 86 - 1971 86 - 1919 89 - 1951
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...CAS
CLIMATE...NJJ
MARINE...MEADE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page