300
FXUS63 KGRR 182016
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- TURNING COOLER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
- LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVED OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND
MUCH OF THE AREA IS NOW SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS HINTED BY HREF GUIDANCE. A LOW WILL
BE LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST IOWA BY THURSDAY EVENING, ADVANCING INTO
EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ON THURSDAY, BUT IS STRONGER THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB LIS
BECOME NEGATIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE SO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT POINT
WE START THUNDER THURSDAY EVENING IN THE FORECAST, BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE BROUGHT FORWARD INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
OUR CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE STRONGER 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
THAT OCCURS AFTER DARK. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO NOT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO CHANCE MUCH WITH ICE IN AREA RIVERS.
- TURNING COOLER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND
WE TURN COOLER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND TOMORROW'S SYSTEM. WE SET UP AN
UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH AIR AT 850MB THAT GETS PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WE LOOK TO HAVE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO NO SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES/IMPACTS WITH SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COOL BACK INTO THE 30S THIS WEEKEND WHICH IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODEL DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP MID NEXT WEEK WITH
THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE. IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE TRYING TO
CONVERGE ON WEDNESDAY BEING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 30S WARM TO AROUND 40 ON
WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEM
TO DEAL WITH. TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING AS DRYER
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI; WE'LL SEE SKIES
SCATTER OUT BY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT LOCATIONS THAT
HAVEN'T YET.
WINDS WILL KICK UP WITH THE CLEARING DUE TO BETTER MECHANICAL
MIXING, BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH, THE
WET GROUND WILL HELP TO DEVELOP MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...04
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