462  
FXUS63 KMQT 180018  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
818 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  
 
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- THEIR WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO  
BREAK DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURES, ONE IN THE  
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER WYOMING AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN  
MOVING SOUTH, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT  
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER CANADA APPROACHED FROM THE NORTH, WITH A COLD FRONT  
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE U.P. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED INTO THE 70S  
AND LOWER 80S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES  
THIS MORNING BUT DIMINISHED BY MID-MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS  
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHERE IT WAS INTERSECTING A LAKE  
BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. SOME OF  
THE STORMS WERE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING,  
LIGHTNING STRIKES UP TO 20 MILES AWAY FROM THE STORMS HAS BEEN  
OCCURING UNDER THE ANVILS.  
 
THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH  
TROUGH THE U.P WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. WHILE THE  
AIRMASS ISN'T UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IT WILL BRING  
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE SATURDAY (50S  
FOR LOWS AND 60S FOR HIGHS), CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTH  
INTO DICKINSON, ALGER, DELTA AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES. THERE IS PLENTY  
OF INSTABILITY BEING ANALYZED IN THIS AREA, UP TO 2K J/KG CAPE BUT  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS  
SHORT LIVED AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY  
RAINFALL. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH BY LATE  
EVENING. A PERIOD OF FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
U.P, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WIND UPSLOPE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS  
COOLER, MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.  
 
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND WESTERN U.S WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MERGE  
INTO A SINGLE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS HAPPENS  
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MIDWEST KEEPING THE  
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST WAVE  
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A  
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT  
MOVES INTO THE U.P WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER. WITH  
PWATS REMAINING HIGH, >1.25", ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM  
COULD PUT OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH FRIDAY'S  
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS WEST OF THE AREA AND THE NBM MAINTAINS LOW  
POPS OVER THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS FURTHER EAST INTO THE  
CENTRAL U.P WHICH ALSO SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION AS WARM,  
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRIDES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE  
STALLED OVER THE U.P. DIDN'T DEVIATE FROM THE NBM AT THIS TIME BUT  
WORTH NOTING.  
 
FOR THE WEEKEND THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW BUT OVERALL IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN U.S AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS  
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AS MULTIPLE  
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON  
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH  
AMERICA. THIS MAY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT THEN STALL OVERHEAD,  
RESULTING IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN  
THE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ANY  
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF  
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WILL INCLUDE IFR/LIFR FOG  
MENTION AGAIN TONIGHT FOR SAW AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT  
FOR ANY MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AT IWD WITH ANOTHER  
ROUND OF POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE  
IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN MN AND  
THE DAKOTAS. OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL  
STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY AND UP TO 30 KNOTS ON  
FRIDAY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE. OVER THE EAST HALF  
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS THE  
COOLER, MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR  
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 20  
KNOTS.  
 
 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...JTP/NL  
AVIATION...TDUD  
MARINE...NL  
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