783
FXUS63 KMQT 291807
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH WIND SNOW
BELTS TO THE END OF THIS WEEK AS A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AND PATCHES OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW, ONTONAGON COUNTY, AND ALGER
COUNTY TODAY. THE HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE OVER THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT TOO.
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING; EXPECT WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND
-20F IN LUCE COUNTY AND THE AREAS NEAR IT.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND, WHEN TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL NOW SHIFTS INTO THE NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS TODAY
AND REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE LOW
PROGRESSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK. SOME MODERATE
(1/2 INCH PER HOUR) TO HEAVY (1+ INCH PER HOUR) LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS ARE BEING SEEN OVER THE EAST BY ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SOME OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
BEING REALIZED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING TOO WITH THE HELP OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEST TODAY AS THE WEAKENING
WINDS LIMITS THE RANGE TO JUST ONTONAGON, NORTHERN HOUGHTON, AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES. AS FOR THE EAST, EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO
MOVE OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
NEVERTHELESS, SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY TO SAND-LIKE SNOWFALL
OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS TODAY, WITH POTENTIALLY A DUSTING FALLING
EVERYWHERE ELSE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL, THINKING SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE SEEN BY THE LAKESHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN
DESPITE THE WEAKENING WINDS AS THE SOMEWHAT FLUFFY, SOMEWHAT SAND-
LIKE SNOW WILL STILL BE EASILY LOFTED INTO THE AIR, AND GUIDANCE
HASN'T HANDLED THIS POTENTIAL VERY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE, WHILE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL END OVER THE EAST
(AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER BARAGA/SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES) THIS MORNING, EXTENDED THE HAZARDS OVER THE WEST AND ALGER
COUNTY WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO AT LEAST 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. COULD SEE THE ADVISORY OVER THE WEST NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED
IN THE FUTURE AS THE LATEST HREF DOES SHOW OCCASIONAL MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN AT LEAST
KEWEENAW AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL RATES COULD MOVE ONSHORE
OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY TONIGHT, ALL OF GUIDANCE AT THE MOMENT IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL STILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THEREFORE, DECIDED NOT TO HOIST UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY TONIGHT. IF, HOWEVER, THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TRENDS
ONSHORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, THEN THIS MAY NEED TO BE
RECONSIDERED.
IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL, COLD AIR DRAINAGE JUST
NORTH OF THE SOO IN ONTARIO IS DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN U.P. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO 'SPILL' INTO THE EASTERN U.P.
EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
AREAS NEAR IT TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER NEGATIVE TEENS, ALLOWING
WIND CHILLS TO DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S. THUS, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER LUCE COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BASICALLY A RINSE-AND-REPEAT FOR
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, THE PLAN IS TO HAVE THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LUCE COUNTY (AND POTENTIALLY
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND EVEN ALGER COUNTY TOO IF COLD ENOUGH) LATER
TODAY, UNLESS THEY BELIEVE THERE IS A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE GOING
FORECAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO DWINDLE AND END OVER THE U.P. BY SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION, EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS. WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND GREATER ICE COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL BE VERY SMALL IF
NOT NEXT TO ZERO FOR NEXT WEEK; IF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DOES OCCUR,
IT WOULD BE RELEGATED TO JUST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE AS
DELTA-TS WOULD ONLY GET UP TO AROUND THE LOWER TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
THE ONGOING MESSY LAKE EFFECT PATTERN AND TROUGH AXES OVERHEAD
LEAVES A BIT OF A COMPLEX FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE THIS AXES PRESSES
SOUTH INTO TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS MESOSCALE FEATURES IRON
OUT AND MORE "USUAL LOOKING" LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SET UP OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. FOR CMX: A SNOWBAND CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WESTERN KEWEENAW SHORES FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT CURRENTLY
CIRCULATING OUT OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BRING IFR TO
OCCASIONALLY LIFR VIS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DOMINANT BAND OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANY PRELUDING DEVELOPMENT NEAR MARQUETTE COUNTY
SHORES REACHING SAW THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BRING VIS DOWN TO AROUND
IFR. LASTLY, SOME MVFR IS ANTICIPATED AT IWD. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, SAVE FOR IFR AT IWD
TONIGHT. VIS RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY PRIMARILY CONSIST OF
MVFR/IFR UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUE TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS
ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE. AS
THIS OCCURS, EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO EXTEND OUT FROM THE EAST-
CENTRAL TO MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ENDING TOO WITH THE DWINDLING
WINDS. AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WE
MAY SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW ON
SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE LOW ON MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>003-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ243-244-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...77
MARINE...TAP
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