488
FXUS63 KMQT 250639
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
239 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES OVER THE WEST
HALF TODAY, SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING FOR MOST LATE WEDNESDAY.
- EXPECT DANGEROUS WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.
- GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE IRONWOOD AREA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS THE CLIPPER'S WARM FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PWATS INCREASING TO
1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES, GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE ATMOSPHERE (ONLY 1 KJ/KG OR LESS) AND SUB-OPTIMAL 0-6 KM SHEAR
(~30 KNOTS), THINKING THAT WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD BE SEEN
OVER THE FAR WEST (GENERALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS
EVENING), NO STORMS SHOULD TECHNICALLY REACH SEVERE WEATHER CRITERIA
(I.E. TORNADOES, HAIL OF 1 INCH OR GREATER, 60+ MPH WINDS). THAT
BEING SAID, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE HAD SOME STORMS POP-UP AND
BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO A DIME
OR NICKEL IN SIZE DOWN TO THE SFC. IN ADDITION TO THESE HAZARDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE SEEN IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS,
WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL, EVEN
IN THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER MOVES
OVER THE REST OF UPPER MI. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT, COLD FRONT, AND WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE OF THE LOW, AND WHETHER THE FRONT'S OCCLUDE OR NOT, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-90%) THAT RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL, SOME SPOTS COULD RECEIVE A 'FEAST' OF
RAINFALL WHILE OTHERS SEE A 'FAMINE'; THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
SHOW A GENERAL 10-60% CHANCE FOR RECEIVING MORE THAN AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES BEING SEEN IN THE EAST; THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST NBM ALSO
SHOWS UP TO AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
THE AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL, FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD. EXPECT THE RAINFALL OVER THE U.P. TO WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE (PROBABLY) LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS DWINDLE
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL, THE CLIPPER IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IN
TURN IS PROJECTED TO CREATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH WAVES
ALONG THE BEACHES OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE,
WHILE ONE HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET, EXPECT A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
TO BE FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT FAIRLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE AREA AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS VIA INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK. WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET A DAY OR
TWO OF REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ENTER THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MULTIPLE WAVES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF EACH WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. HANDLED MOST OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH PROB30S DUE THE THE
UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG AT SAW FOR TONIGHT; HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATION COOLING AND THE
THREAT FOR FOG.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TONIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS CONTINUE UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON, WHEN INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH BUILD TO 20 TO 25
KTS BY THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE MI, NORTHERN GREEN
BAY, AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE WARM FRONT OF AN INCOMING
CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
FRONT TODAY, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY; SOME SEVERE, ERRATIC WINDS UP TO
40 KTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (UP TO AROUND A DIME IN DIAMETER)
COULD BE SEEN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIORS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THEREFORE, BOATERS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SHOULD KEEP THEIR
WEATHER RADIOS NEARBY AND REMAIN WEATHER-AWARE. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KTS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST
TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE CAA
BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOOKS TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 30 KTS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE
WINDS OVER THE LAKE TO DROP TO 20 KTS OR LESS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN GREEN BAY
AND NORTHWEST LAKE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER,
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
POTENTIALLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS RETURNING TO NORTHERN GREEN BAY, NORTHWEST LAKE MI, AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...TAP
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