176
FXUS63 KMQT 291915
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
315 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT INDEX
WILL REACH THE LOW 100S ON TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA.
-THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (15% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
- THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
RIDGING WAS BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT. THUNDERSTORM FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING AS
A WARM FROM LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS LINGERED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE EASTERN UP, NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS SHEARING OFF OF THE ANVILS OF STORMS TO THE
WEST HELPED KEEP AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION, PUTTING A HAMPER
ON THE EXPECTED HEATING TODAY. AT 130PM THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE ONLY IN THE 60S EAST AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. SOME PATCHES OF
BROKEN CLOUD COVER WERE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE WESTERN UP AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI, LIFTING NORTHWARDS. IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT THE
SUN WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE WESTERN UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND IT WILL QUICKLY FEEL QUITE MUGGY. THAT BEING SAID,
KNOCKED THE EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEST. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER NORTH-CENTAL MN MOVING
EASTWARDS.
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, REACHING UPWARDS
OF 3000-4000 J/KG. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THE BEST LIFT WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO A JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTHERN MN.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WEST OF THE REGION
WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT, WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE, WHERE THE LLJ WILL BE WEAKER.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORMS WILL EXTEND AND
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WESTERN UP THIS
EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE CAMS ARE NOT HANDLING THE
ONGOING BOW ECHO OVER MN VERY WELL, IF AT ALL, BUT WITH LOSS OF
SUPPORT AS IT MOVES EAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COMPLEX WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 60S EAST TO THE LOW 70S WEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TO NORTHERN
MANITOBA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT SOME WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS
OF 22-24C ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND
MID 90S. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL
BRING THE HEAT INDEX TO THE LOW 100S OVER MUCH OF THE UP. EXPANDED
HEAT ADVISORIES TO THE REST OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY. THOSE WHO WILL
BE EXPOSED TO THE HEAT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS AND THOSE WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD HAVE A PLAN TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED.
850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM BUT A BIT COOLER, 18-20C THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HEAT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MUCAPE AT AN
IMPRESSIVE 5000+ J/KG ALONG WITH 40+ KT BULK SHEAR. A CAPPING
INVERSION SHOULD HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
BOUNDARY (MOISTURE GRADIENT) WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UP, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE WEAKENING CAP.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER, THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY COULD BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SHOULD
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MSC WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80MPH. SECONDARY
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUND THE
FLATTENING RIDGE. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF MSCS AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT IWD AND
CMX, WHILE SAW REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LIFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT OVER NORTHERN WI, AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT IWD AND CMX,
AND AT SAW BY THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS TO SETTLE BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
SAW. WE'RE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO
APPROACH IWD/CMX FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NO
HIGHER THAN A PROB30. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT SAW/IWD. A PERIOD OF LLWS
IS LIKELY AT CMX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT SAW, ALTHOUGH IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MIXED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED MID-MORNING
TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT TONIGHT
BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 20KT OR LESS ON TUESDAY. AS A VERY HUMID
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE RAINFALL IS OCCURING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES FOR THE MID-LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT, LINGERING INTO
THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS UP TO 70KT SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002>007-
009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...NL
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