775  
FXUS63 KMQT 221753  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
153 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 50  
MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE  
REMAINING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES OF THE UP.  
 
- WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CAUSE  
HIGH RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.  
 
- ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO UPPER MI LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  
 
- THERE MAY BE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS NEXT WEEK  
ALTHOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON  
TIMING/EXTENT AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT BEHIND A  
LINE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UP, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN  
AN OTHERWISE DRY SLOT. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A 989MB LOW OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR PROGRESSING TO THE NNE. AS THE  
LOW AND PARENT TROUGH MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO TODAY, AN 850MB  
LLJ WILL BE SOURCE OF THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE UP TODAY.  
BY 20Z, THE 00Z HREF SHOWS 50 KTS AT 850MB OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH 35-  
45 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST HALF OF THE UP. MIXING WILL  
ALLOW FOR SOME OF THOSE WINDS TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE IN  
THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS OVER THE KEWEENAW UP TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS  
ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEST HALF OF THE UP TO 35-45 MPH. HREF AND  
EPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY AROUND 10% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS  
EXCEEDING 58 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW, SO THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS  
CANCELLED. THE HREF DOES INDICATE SOME 30% PROBABILITIES ALONG THE  
WESTERN SHORES OF THE KEWEENAW OF 58 MPH GUSTS, SO COASTAL  
COMMUNITIES SUCH AS FREDA, EAGLE RIVER, AND EAGLE HARBOR COULD SEE A  
PEAK GUST OF THAT STRENGTH, BUT AS FAR AS WIDESPREAD, SUSTAINED  
GUSTS ARE CONCERNED, GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE  
WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON AND WILL  
EXPAND TO COVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND KEWEENAW COUNTY. FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE UP, GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH  
IS STILL PRETTY GUSTY, BUT NO PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED,  
GIVEN THE HREF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE COMPACT AREA OF HIGHER  
WINDS OVER THE WEST.  
 
AS THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE UP TODAY, SHOWER  
CHANCES WILL BE LOW, HOWEVER, THE HREF DOES SHOW ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, SO  
SOME LOW-END (15-30 PERCENT) POPS ARE LEFT IN, BUT IMPACTS FROM THIS  
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. FOR THOSE WILLING TO BRAVE 55 DEGREE WATER  
TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, WAVES OF 6-8 FEET OVER THE  
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ARE LEADING TO HIGH CHANCES  
OF RIP CURRENTS, PROMPTING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT. TONIGHT, AS  
MIXING BECOMES LESS EFFICIENT AND THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT  
NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE UP, WINDS FALL OFF AND THE WEATHER IS MAINLY  
BENIGN, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY  
CONDITIONS UNDER WEAK RIDGING. THE WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN GIVE WAY  
TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WHICH  
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WEST  
WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH AND WIND ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED).S BRINGING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE U.P. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY. WHILE MOST OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY UNDER  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OUT TO SUNDAY AND  
BEYOND IN THE EXTENDED LEADING TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ALTHOUGH  
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERY PERIODS INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
BEGINNING THURSDAY, THE UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER WESTERN  
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS ENE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES  
BAY. INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE  
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK  
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON  
THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS HINT AT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING  
THRU THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY,  
BUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS WEAK WAVE SHOULD BE SPARSE  
GIVEN DRY LOW-LEVELS DEPICTED IN FCST SOUNDINGS. OVERALL, SHOULD BE  
A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH  
READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.  
 
BY FRIDAY, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMERGIENG  
FROM THE WESTERN CONUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS  
NE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES INCREASING  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT, 850 MB THETA ADVECTION AND MODERATE Q-VECTOR  
CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER  
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING W- E ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE  
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  
 
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS  
IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LEADING TO DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE  
REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW COOLER MID  
50S READINGS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.  
 
WHILE MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO  
KEEP SUNDAY DRY, THERE IS PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT WILL  
HAPPEN AFTER THAT. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS  
MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK  
SUPPRESSING A SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY  
AND KEEPING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MOSTLY DRY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF  
THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A PHASED, DEEPER AND  
FARTHER NORTH SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE STRAITS BY 12Z MON AND THE  
LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE UKMET HAS ALSO LATCHED ONTO THIS IDEA. IF THIS  
SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WILL POTENTIALLY BE A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL  
SYSTEM FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH OF  
THE U.P. RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE EAST HALF SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. WRAPAROUND  
MOISTURE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE, COMMA HEAD OF THE DEEPENING E  
SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS  
DEEPER SOLUTION WOULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE WIND IMPACTS WITH GALES  
LIKELY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE U.P. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MODEL TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY  
IN THE COMING DAYS SO STAY TUNED TO POSSIBLE FORECAST CHANGES  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES  
NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY, ALL SITES WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THE  
0Z TAF. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO 25-30 KTS AT  
SAW AND IWD WITH UP TO 40 KTS AT CMX. WINDS LIGHTEN UP TONIGHT,  
HOWEVER SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS REMAIN AT SAW AND IWD; GUSTS AT CMX  
HOLD IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. SKIES  
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY  
IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT IWD AND SAW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS APPEAR TO BE ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OVER  
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN  
UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL  
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH INTO ONTARIO TODAY. SOUTHWEST GALES CAN BE  
EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGH-END GALES TO 45 KNOTS AND  
MAYBE EVEN A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE  
WEST HALF INTO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. EAST HALF SECTIONS WILL  
LIKELY ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH GALES OF 35 TO  
40 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO WORK  
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE BLO GALES LATE THIS MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO  
AND WEAKENS, WINDS WILL DROP BLO GALES FOR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL  
SECTIONS LATER THIS EVENING. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS RETURN TO  
THE AREA BY EVENING. THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS DOESN'T LAST LONG  
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TO 30  
KNOTS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE  
LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG. WINDS  
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE AND  
BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ITS COLD FRONT  
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT LIGHT  
WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THIS  
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR  
MIZ001>003-009.  
 
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
MIZ014.  
 
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-  
240-241.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242>244-263-  
264.  
 
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GS  
LONG TERM...VOSS  
AVIATION...JABLONSKI  
MARINE...VOSS  
 
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