452
FXUS63 KMQT 151759
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
159 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE THE SPC ANALYSIS
PAGE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION, WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEARING IN THE ATMOSPHERE, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WHILE MOST SPOTS TODAY COULD SEE UP TO AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES,
SOME AREAS COULD 'WIN OUT' RAINFALL-WISE AND SEE OVER A QUARTER
INCH; THE REFS RUN HAS A 40% CHANCE OF SOME AREAS SEEING OVER A
QUARTER INCH BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TODAY, BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE U.P., WITH UP TO 30 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
KEWEENAW. IN ADDITION, EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
EXPECT THE TROUGHING PATTERN TO HOLD STEADY OVERHEAD THE REST OF
THIS WEEK, KEEPING COOL AND DRIER INTERIOR CANADIAN AIR OVER THE
U.P. AS SHORTWAVE LOWS CYCLE DOWN FROM ALBERTA INTO THE REGION
NEARLY EVERY DAY. THUS, EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S. IN ADDITION, THE CONSTANT SHORTWAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN NEARLY EVERY DAY, ALTHOUGH RAIN
CHANCES MAY LAST ALL DAY SOME DAYS WHEREAS OTHERS MAY BE RELEGATED
TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ORDER FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET SOME
DIURNAL HEATING HELP. STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON A MORE IMPRESSIVE
CLIPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK; WHILE THE LOW'S CENTER IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO MISS US TO OUR SOUTH, WE COULD SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE GO NORTH OF THE LOW AND BRING A STRATIFORM-LIKE RAIN
PATTERN OVER US. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS COULD BE WETTING
(0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES) ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE LATEST LREF
SHOWING A 50 TO 90% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE LOW'S TRACK).
WHILE THE TROUGHING PATTERN MAY LIFT A TAD AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO PERSIST, WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER LOW FROM ALBERTA POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE U.P. ONCE AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA; HOWEVER, TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL BE SEEN AT TIMES AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS
HIGHLIGHTED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO IWD AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO SAW AND CMX. WESTERLY
WINDS, WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WSW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DROP BACK DOWN TO
20 KNOTS OR LESS BY THIS EVENING AFTER THE SHORTWAVE BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LAKE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE AN ISOLATED T-
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, IT ISN'T
EXPECTED AS NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AS COMPARED TO THE SURROUNDING LAND AREAS.
EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
WHEN A STRONG CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE EAST, PICKING UP 20 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE THURSDAY
MORNING; THE LATEST NBM SHOWS UP TO AROUND A 40% CHANCE FOR LOW-END
GALES OVER THE EASTERN LAKE NEAR THE U.P. ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, LIGHTENING UP TO AROUND
20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY THE EVENING
HOURS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY BACKING TO THE
WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SLACKEN FURTHER TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY
NIGHT, REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGHING PATTERN OVERHEAD BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TAP
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