319
FXUS63 KMQT 281745
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1245 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND
SNOWBELTS INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACE THE UP
UNDERNEATH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A BROADER TROUGHING
PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONG
CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW AT 985 MB OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. CAA AND PRESSURE
RISES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS OVER THE EAST AND NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH OUTSIDE THE EAST ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. THESE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND 4 AM EST THIS MORNING AS THE STRONG LLJ QUICKLY DEPARTS;
MAINTAINED THE WIND HEADLINES AS INHERITED. WITH 850MB TEMPS
LOWERING TO BETWEEN -19C TO -23C, COLDEST OVER NORTHEASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR, LES OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS SETS UP.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LEAVE MUCH TO DESIRE, SO ACCUMULATION TODAY
AND TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH LIMITED IF
ANY IMPACTS. FORECAST AMOUNTS INCLUDE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE
WEST AND UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE EAST BY 7 AM EST SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO TODAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY GRAZING
THE SOUTH WITH A LIGHT DUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 1 INCH (15-24% CHANCE).
HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S; OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY BELOW 0 ARE
EXPECTED. COLD HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS. LES
PRIMARILY BECOMES CONFINED TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE UP. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST
COULD OFFSET THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND MINOR IMPACTS WOULD BE ISOLATED.
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SYSTEMS MAINLY ONLY GRAZING
THE UP THE FIRST HALF. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS, ALBEIT STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE (20-40%), SET UP FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS DEEPER WAVES
AND STRONGER SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PARTICULAR FOCUS IS ON THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WHEN A CO LOW LIFTS
THROUGH. THERE IS PLENTY OF SPREAD YET IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REGARDING TRACK, BUT THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THE EPS FAVOR
A TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS PLACES THE UP LARGELY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, LEANING P-TYPE TOWARD RAIN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY YET, A WINTRY MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK FAVORS A WARM UP (65-75% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PER THE
LATEST CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK), WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING TO THE
40S FOR MANY. LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S EARLY NEXT
WEEK PUSH NEAR FREEZING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER IS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE UP TODAY, WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY RELEGATED TO
THE EASTERN HALF AS NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS
VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, HREF GUIDANCE DOES MAINTAIN AROUND A 40%
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AT KIWD AND KCMX. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT AT THE TERMINALS AS
OF 18Z SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 KT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
NORTHWEST GALES OF 35-45 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS MORNING AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DOWNGRADED THE EAST TO A GALE WARNING
THROUGH 7 AM EST AND CANCELED THE WEST GALE WARNING EARLY. WINDS
OVER THE WEST FALL BELOW 20 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND
20-25 KTS IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING. WINDS OVER THE EAST FALL
BELOW 20 KTS TONIGHT, WITH LAKEWIDE WINDS BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHES FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. TRIMMED UP THE END TIME FOR THE EASTERN ZONES HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING, OTHERWISE MAINTAINED THOSE HAZARDS AS
INHERITED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER THE EAST AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND FALL BELOW 20 KTS TUESDAY MORNING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ243-244-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page