731
FXUS63 KMQT 271946
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
346 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25" ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- DUAL DIRECTIONAL GALES 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHT A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS/CANADA. ANOTHER TROUGH JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PINCHES
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER NE AND IA.
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER WI AND MI, SENDING THE SURFACE
LOW FROM SOUTHEAST MN THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT,
REACHING NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING. THE PVA WITH THIS TROUGH
PIVOTING OVERHEAD ALONGSIDE WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SUPPORTING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING TOWARD THE UP NOTED ON THE RADAR MOSAIC.
EVEN THOUGH THE WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR,
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE ON THE END OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE,
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP (LIKELY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG, MEAN HREF MUCAPE IS ONLY 100-500 J/KG). NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTS THROUGH. IN REGARD TO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
PWATS DO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS WAVE, BUT
THE BREVITY OF THE EVENT AND SEVERITY/EXTENT OF STORMS LEAVES QPF ON
THE LOWER SIDE. GENERALLY EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING, HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE THE
BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY ALIGN. THAT SAID, HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
1.25 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED OUT WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR OR
PERSIST (15-25% CHANCE).
OTHERWISE WAA KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO MID 60S,
WARMEST EAST TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THIS
EVENING, GUSTING 20-30 MPH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ISOLATED POTENTIAL
UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WARMER PERIOD LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
TEMPS ONLY SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S, COLDEST WEST AS A COLD
FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH. RAIN ENDS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH (UP TO 40 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW) ON TUESDAY WITH CAA, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND A STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S; NEAR 60 IN
SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
ONCE THE UP IS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL WARD OFF
ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE
PERSISTING TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT KEEPS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
GOING THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S TO 30S. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR
CONCERNS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN WIND STRENGTH AND HOW EFFICIENT AIR
WILL DRY PRECLUDES ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM WITH THIS PACKAGE.
RIVER FLOODING: WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURING
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING ON THE
MICHIGAMME RIVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE MITIGATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BY COOLER
TEMPS LIMITING RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DROP TO MVFR, FIRST AT IWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN AT CMX AND SAW AROUND 00Z, AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS IN A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE
IS A ~20 PERCENT CHANCES OF TSRA, BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE TAF. CEILINGS LOOK TO DROP FURTHER TO IFR OR LOWER BETWEEN 03-
06Z, AND STEADIER SHOWERS AND BR/FG MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITY AS
WELL AT CMX. IN ADDITION, LLWS LOOKS TO RETURN TONIGHT TO SAW AND
CMX PARTICULARLY THANKS TO THE STRONG SHEARING PROFILE CAUSED BY THE
LOW'S CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE UP. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY, AND IWD MAY EVEN RISE TO LOW-END
VFR NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS INCREASED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TO 15-30 KTS WITH GALES OF 35-40 KTS
EXPECTED OVER THE EAST INTO TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT
HIGH OBSERVING PLATFORMS THIS EVENING, BUT BETTER ODDS FOR THOSE
STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED NORTHEAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD UP TO 8 TO 12 FT BY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING OUT OF THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
STRONGEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS, BUT
OPTED TO HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR THE ZONES JUST WEST OF THE
KEWEENAW AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT BOOST PROBABILITIES
OF LOW END GALES TO AT LEAST 60%. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO
14 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH 4 TO 8 FT OVER THE
WEST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS BENIGN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS MAINLY HOLD 20 KTS OR LESS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
TUESDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-250-251-264-
265.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ246-247.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...77
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