009  
FXUS63 KMQT 012311  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK  
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO KICK OFF THE  
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  
 
- ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE  
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING OF FRIDAY, THE FOURTH OF JULY AS WELL AS ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UP ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A  
MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS, WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE  
TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS  
CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH  
NORTHERN ONTARIO HAS KICK OFF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE MN BORDER  
AND IN NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH INTO OUR  
WATERS AND EVEN GRAZE THE NORTHERN UP LATER TODAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE  
IS LOW. OTHERWISE, CLOSER TO HOME, PATCHY, LOW-TOPPED, FAIR-WEATHER  
CUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR UP BETRAYS DECENT AFTERNOON  
DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS HELPING TO MIX DOWN SOME ~20MPH GUSTS AT  
TIMES, OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH  
HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 80S. NEARER TO SUPERIOR, ONSHORE FLOW IS  
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER, IN THE 70S. QUIET WEATHER  
CONTINUES TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER  
50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
WEDNESDAY, WE REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHILE A DEEPER  
TROUGH/MIDLEVEL LOW DROPS THROUGH ONTARIO. AS AN INITIAL ASSOCIATED  
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH  
AXIS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE, AS WELL  
AS ANY LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS, WILL SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR SCATTERED  
CONVECTION TO SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
SEVERAL HUNDRED TO 1000J/KG OF CAPE IS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS, AS  
WELL AS DEEPLY MIXED, INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW US TAPPING INTO  
STRONGER ~30KT WINDS ALOFT. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND  
SUFFICIENT SHEAR PRESENT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS, SOME  
MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS WRAP UP WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT  
WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S UNDER CLEAR  
SKIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH  
STEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS  
SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA, BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE  
SUPERIOR IN THE LOWER 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.  
 
FRIDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH  
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE UP SITUATED IN STRENGTHENING  
LOWER/MIDLEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING RIDGE.  
THIS WILL HELP TO PUMP IN A WARMER AIRMASS, AND WITH A CONNECTION TO  
THE GULF, HIGHER PWATS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WELL.  
MEANWHILE, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW  
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND HEADING TOWARDS  
THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WILL NOTE  
THAT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING PERSIST AMONG VARIOUS MODEL  
GUIDANCE. ANY EARLIER WAVES MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE  
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE  
HOLDING ONTO THE RIDGE A LITTLE LONGER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLIER  
ARRIVAL TIME IS DECREASING. STILL, WITH WARM, MOIST, UNSTABLE  
CONDITIONS (MUCAPE POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG PER LREF) AND  
AN INVERTED-V SHAPE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS, ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING - WHETHER FORCED BY PASSING WAVES  
OR SIMPLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN - COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.  
CONFIDENCE IN (POTENTIALLY STRONG) CONVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY  
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE HEADS  
TOWARDS THE AREA, WHILE WE END UP NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF A  
STRENGTHENING LLJ. AFTERWARDS, TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES BECOME  
MORE PRONOUNCED, BUT EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA  
SOMETIME SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS BRINGS WITH IT MORE  
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION, AGAIN POTENTIALLY ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH  
HEALTHY DAYTIME INSTABILITY POTENTIALLY AROUND/IN EXCESS OF  
1000J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
OTHERWISE, EXPECT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PEAKING WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH  
OF THE UP. DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE 60S AND EVEN TO NEAR 70F WILL  
LEAD TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 90F BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES TURN MORE OR  
LESS SEASONAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING  
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES FOR THEM  
REDUCING CONDITIONS TO LOWER THAN VFR ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO  
INCLUDE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW (10% CHANCE OR  
LESS).  
 
THE W TO NW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 15-25 KTS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT THIS EVENING WILL  
SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KTS AND WAVES LESS THAN 4 FT  
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. W TO SW WINDS RISE TO ~15-20 KTS AGAIN OVER  
THE W HALF OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT (MAINLY 15  
KTS OR LESS) AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY  
INCREASE TO 20 KTS ON FRIDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LC  
LONG TERM...LC  
AVIATION...TAP  
MARINE...JABLONSKI/PK  
 
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