889  
FXUS63 KMQT 090456  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
1256 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR  
INLAND AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  
 
- DRY WEATHER PREVAILS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
PRIMARILY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND  
LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN UP WITH NW FLOW OFF OF  
SUPERIOR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS AS OUR RATHER DRY AIRMASS WINS OUT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES  
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  
 
TONIGHT THE TRANSITING HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS,  
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE, AND THE DRY AIRMASS, PROVIDING ANOTHER NIGHT  
OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER  
MAY MOVE OVER THE EAST, BUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS NOT  
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER  
30S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR UP, THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY FALL FURTHER  
INTO THE MID 20S IF SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED.  
30S STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOST LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES. HOWEVER,  
GIVEN THAT WE ARE IN THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER AND THAT WE HAD A  
GOOD FREEZE FOR MANY LAST NIGHT, WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY  
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY AS  
WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS, POTENTIALLY HIGHER  
IN DOWNSLOPE PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKESHORE.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHARP SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. AS IT REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR  
AND UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
EASTERN LAKESHORES FOLLOWED BY THE PAIR CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL A WEAK  
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE  
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER  
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND  
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN THE EAST. MUCH OF THE UP IS LOOKING TO  
GET A WETTING RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN  
TOTALS AROUND 0.20-0.30. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES SHOW AROUND A 20-30%  
CHANCE FOR SOME HIGHER EMBEDDED TOTALS UP TO A HALF AN INCH.  
 
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AFTERWARDS, STRETCHING ATOP THE  
DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND SPANNING MUCH OF MIDDLE CONUS. THE  
DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN  
ATLANTIC, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW HOVERING ALONG THE  
EAST COAST INTO NEXT WEEK. UPSTREAM, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE RIDGE'S WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME.  
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THE  
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG  
WITH LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, COMING IN AROUND  
10KTS OR LESS WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING OVER TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY,  
AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL PRESS CLOSER TO THE REGION AS THE HIGH  
DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IN RESPONSE, WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE  
SOUTH INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT  
WHEN THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, THESE WINDS INCREASE TO  
NEAR 30KTS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW END GALES,  
NAMELY THE GFS AND EC. THE LATTER'S ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CURRENTLY  
SUGGESTS ~30-40% FOR GALES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND EASTERN LAKE  
SUPERIOR, WHICH IS AN UPWARD TREND. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS FRIDAY,  
NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLIES AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM  
BEGINS STALLING AND INTERACTING WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL OFF THE  
EAST COAST, AND ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE,  
AFTER FRIDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 20KTS FOR SATURDAY.  
BY SUNDAY, THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION, RESULTING  
IN SOUTHEASTERLIES INCREASING TO NEAR 25-30KTS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LC  
AVIATION...TDUD  
MARINE...LC  
 
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