433
FXUS63 KMQT 221108
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FINISH THIS WEEK. WARMING
UP THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST MULTIPLE NIGHTS THIS
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
REMNANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS KEEPING US DRY EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO CYCLES WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
US THE REST OF TODAY. WHILE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WON'T AFFECT OUR
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TOO TERRIBLY, WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW IS PROBABLY GOING TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
OVERHEAD. INDEED, EXPECT AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO ONLY GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY. WHILE THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
TODAY (AND EVENTUALLY WIN TONIGHT), EXPECT IT TO BRING LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE SFC; WINDS COULD GUST
TO AS HIGH AS 25 TO POTENTIALLY EVEN 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE NORTH WIND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW, NORTH CENTRAL,
AND EAST; WE COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY SEE A MIX OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE
HURON MOUNTAIN RANGE INTO THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT LOWS
TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THE MOISTURE
WILL HELP PREVENT FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, THE
EXCEPTION SEEMS TO BE IN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED; AN ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED FOR
GOGEBIC COUNTY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY, SAVE FOR TEMPERATURES
BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CEASES AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER BUT
WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE PARENT LOW PHASES EASTWARDS AWAY FROM OUR
AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO PROGRESSIVELY DWINDLE ACROSS THE U.P.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025
FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT?...IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR OVERHEAD (850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO)...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING INTO THE 50S FOR SOME
AREAS. THINK THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT,
PERHAPS A TOUCH COLDER THAN TONIGHT...DESPITE CLOUD COVER BEING IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS TIME. THINK TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...AND COULD ACTUALLY END UP A TOUCH COOLER
(FREEZE POTENTIAL?) IF WE END UP A LITTLE LESS DREARY THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR MASS SWINGING IN
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO GENERATING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY GOING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES GOING RIGHT ON INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE THURSDAY NIGHT COULD END UP WITH SOME OF
THE WHITE STUFF, SINCE, AGAIN, IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. MOISTURE MAY
NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH WELL INTO THE DGZ, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES EXIST AS WELL AS FLAKE-AGE, PARTICULARLY IN
THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW SHOULD HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONAL FROST CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...COLD AIR MASS
STILL HANGING OVER THE AREA COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW CLOUDY/UNSETTLED IT WILL END UP BEING THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
FEW BITS OF PV ZIPPING THROUGH THAT COULD KEEP SHOWERS/CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER
(WHICH COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE COOLER).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER CMX & SAW AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT OVER THESE
TERMINALS AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVES OVER US; AS FOR IWD, IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
UNTIL MVFR CLOUD COVER MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOWERS TO CMX
AND SAW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THAT, EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS, SAVE FOR LIGHTER/CALMER WINDS
BY IWD (IN COMPARISON) TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FOR MOST TONIGHT, TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY WITH TIME THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO
25KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESP THE MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS
REGION...AND COULD CERTAINLY PICK UP AGAIN A TAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST GOING INTO FRIDAY. WAVES EXPECTED TO RUN
NEAR 3-5 FEET.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...APX
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...APX
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