637
FXUS63 KMQT 292327
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES WILL REACH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
REDUCED AIR QUALITY; AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY.
- A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
FRIDAY; OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (60S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR).
- A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE INTERIOR.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSES REVEAL A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, DIGGING INTO WI/IA/EASTERN NE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS BEGINNING
TO DROP SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. MEANWHILE, RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS
SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR US IS RATHER QUIET
CONDITIONS, WITH JUST SOME STRAY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND FAIR-
WEATHER CUMULUS FINALLY POPPING UP OVER THE INTERIOR O THE UP. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. WINDS REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE APART FROM IN THE KEWEENAW, WHERE GUSTS ARE INCREASING
TO AROUND 20MPH. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE HELPING TO LIMIT CONCERNS
FOR FIRE SPREAD, IN SPITE OF WIDESPREAD RH IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
TONIGHT, THE CANADIAN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD WHILE THE
MIDWEST TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE POSITIVE TIL AND BEGINS TO SWING
EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN FEATURE BEGINS
TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THOUGH MOISTURE-STARVED, THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN UP. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UP DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTHERN UP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. HOWEVER, WHERE WE CAN GET ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OR A
THUNDERSTORM (MORE LIKELY IN THE UP), ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO A
QUARTER INCH WOULD NOT BE RULED OUT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING NW WINDS, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 15-20MPH. GIVEN
SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LITTLE BY WAY OF RAINFALL, THIS
COULD STILL POSE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH FRIDAY
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL DEWPOINT-MIXING KIND OF DAY.
MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT IN SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY, AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE CANADIAN AND MIDWEST SHORTWAVES
FINALLY PHASE OFF TO OUR EAST, WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAVE US EXPOSED TO SOME
RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LOW-END POPS, BUT A DRY
PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
LOOKING LIKELY AS THE RIDGE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME MIXING
ALLOWING US TO TAP INTO SOME ~20MPH GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
DEWPOINTS DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 20S OR EVEN THE TEENS. WINDS TURN
LIGHTER SUNDAY, AND SOUNDINGS SO FAR ARE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF
DEWPOINT DROPS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN UP (60S TO
THE EAST AND IN THE KEWEENAW), RH IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 20S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE UP, AND
GENERALLY IN THE 70S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHER PWAT AIR STARTS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WE COME TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
(WITH A GULF CONNECTION), BUT WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING AT LEAST
UNTIL MIDWEEK AND WINDS ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CONCERNS
FOR ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS PERSIST. OUR NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION COMES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THESE ARE RATHER POORLY HANDLED SO FAR WITH PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT
IN TRACK AND TIMING AMONG GUIDANCE, BUT THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
WETTER PATTERN MIDWEEK ONWARDS WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND MORE
TOWARDS NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THIS TAF PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
EXPECTED TO PRESS THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE, OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR ALL SITES. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT KSAW.
UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA AND CANADA, A VERY LARGE SWATH OF SMOKE CAN BE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND WILL MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AT THE MOMENT, VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FU ARE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF GIVEN THAT SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS THIS PERIOD PROGRESSES.
HAZE MAY ALSO BE INTRODUCED, AS NEEDED, FOR SMOKE ALOFT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO COME OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD 15-20KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. HOWEVER, HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS VEER
NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPECT
WINDS TO TURN CALMER, REMAINING BELOW 20KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001>005-
009>012-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...LC
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