439
FXUS63 KMQT 140731
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
331 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PAIRED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL AS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACCOMPANY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING MODEL UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS CLOSING OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS HAD
DIMINISHED OVER THE U.P AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 30S OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH 40S THE LAKESHORES WITH CLEAR SKIES.
TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A DECAYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UNDER THE RIDGE THERE WILL
BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEAK GRADIENT FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND 50S
NEAR THE LAKESHORES. DEEP MIXING AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 20-25% OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BUT
EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH UNTIL EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY FOR
A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING OFF A PASSING LOW TO THE
NORTH. THIS BRINGS BACK SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS
FROM THE WEST. DESPITE PWATS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES, THE FORCING
IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG/ORGANIZED AND INSTABILITY IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. QPF OF A FEW HUNDRETHS UP TO 0.25 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
ONCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ROUND, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS ONLY SETTLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.
THE WARMING PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID
50S TO MID 60S EAST WHERE THERE IS COOLER SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY WINDS
WITH A PASSING LOW LEVEL JET, BRINGING GUSTS INTO THE 25-35 MPH,
STRONGEST WHERE THERE IS DOWNSLOPE ACCELERATION. ADDITIONAL SPS
WORTHY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT STAYS MILD AND DRY IN THE 50S.
FLOW OVERHEAD BECOMES ZONAL ON SATURDAY WITH AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL
WAVE GRAZING THE NORTHERN END OF THE CWA. LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING MEAN DRY WEATHER LIKELY PERSISTS (80% CHANCE). BREEZY WEST
WINDS START THE DAY OFF, GUSTING INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE, BUT TAPER
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET DEPARTS AND WEAK RIDGING BEGINS
BUILDING IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
MID 70S, WARMEST SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN EFFICIENT MIXING FROM DRY AIR
ALOFT PRESENTS ANOTHER SPS DAY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S, WARMING UP ON
SUNDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S; INTERIOR WEST MAY REACH INTO THE LOW
70S (25% CHANCE). SUNDAY PRESENTS THE LAST DAY FOR POSSIBLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTERIOR WEST AS WINDS PICK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN RHS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO TRACK SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK IS
SIGNIFICANT AMONG ALL THE SUITES, BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY (30-40% CHANCE). A WARM
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE UP. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL, LEAVING POTENTIAL FOR WEAK EMBEDDED STORMS (<500 J/KG).
THE LATER SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY IS
GREATEST. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE SUITE FAVORS THE UP GETTING
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THUS HAVE HIGHER INSTABILITY (UP TO 1000-
2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE) COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEFS WHICH FAVOR A MORE
SOUTHEAST TRACK OF THE WARM SECTOR (1000 J/KG OR LESS OF MUCAPE).
SHEAR IN EITHER MODEL IS SUFFICIENT (AT LEAST 30 KTS) FOR STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TOO MANY DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSION AND SURFACE TRACKS TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS,
BUT WILL MONITOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE COMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
CURRENTLY THE SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A 15% CHANCE ALONG THE
WI/MI STATE LINE AREA.
WHAT DOES HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT IS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH HIGHLIGHTED
BY EFI SHADING TO 0.8 OVER THE WEST WITH SOT NEARING 1. NAEFS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT HIGHLIGHT A STRONG GULF CONNECTION WITH VALUES
ABOVE ~99TH CLIMATOLOGY PERCENTILE ACROSS THE UP AND NBM MEAN PWATS
ARE BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF >=1
INCH OF QPF IN 24 HOURS IS 45-55% ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR PREVAILS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. THAT SAID, A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT CMX EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN BY MID
MORNING. A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IMPACTING MAINLY IWD AND CMX
BEFORE 06Z, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS ARE TURNING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE S OR SE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY 20-30KT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO ONTARIO.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35 KTS. STABLE
AIR OVER THE LAKE WILL LIMIT STRONGER MIXING FROM OCCURING. WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY BETWEEN 20-30 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT, HOLDING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING BACK DOWN BELOW 20 KTS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS 20-30 KT WINDS TO THE LAKE
SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TRACK AND TIMING IS HIGH. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77/NL
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...77/NL
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