089
FXUS63 KMQT 301944
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
BRING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN UP, AROUND AN INCH OF
WET SNOW TO THE NORTHERN UP, AND A WINTRY MIX (INCLUDING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE) FOR THE CENTRAL UP.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND/OR ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH
EXACT VALUES ARE UNCERTAIN.
- CHANCES OF A COLORADO LOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE INCREASING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A THIRD
ROUND OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES.
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING AND CHANCES OF
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL AND RUNOFF TO GRADUALLY RAISE RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
AFTERNOON GOES-EAST DAY CLOUD PHASE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS OVER THE UP, VERIFIED BY MOST METARS IN THE REGION
REPORTING CLR CONDITIONS UNDER 12KFT. THESE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE A SIGN
OF THE DISTURBED WEATHER UPSTREAM, BUT FOR TODAY, THEY WILL ACT TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY.
NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE 40S FOR MOST, SAVE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES HANGING OUT IN THE 30S AND THE MI/WI
STATE LINE BREAKING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE SNOWPACK SLOWLY, WHICH NOHRSC STILL ANALYZES AT AROUND A
FOOT OF SWE FOR MUCH OF THE UP, EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 FEET IN THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE FAR WEST AND FAR SOUTH. THE LATTER COUPLE
LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME VULNERABILITY IN THE SNOWPACK, WITH THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MENOMINEE COUNTY, SOME AREAS IN THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS, AND URBAN AREAS AROUND IRONWOOD, CRYSTAL FALLS, AND IRON
MOUNTAIN SHOWING VERY LITTLE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT (AND RAINFALL RUNOFF
FROM SNOWPACKS) IS GOING TO GARNER QUITE A BIT OF ATTENTION OVER THE
NEXT MONTH OR SO WITH SOME REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE.
TONIGHT, THE 500MB TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE US/CANADA BORDER, REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH, A
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 1000-1005 MB WILL ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE UP
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM PROMINENT
850MB WARM ADVECTION IN LATE MARCH, SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROMINENT WARM
NOSE THAT LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY
UNTIL THE 850MB TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLIES
PREVAIL. THIS WARM NOSE WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR, AND GIVEN THAT THE 925 MB LAYER WILL ALSO BE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT, THERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
CONDITIONS FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR, WITH THE HREF NOT SHOWING MUCH ACCUMULATION AT ALL, THOUGH
THE GEFS/GEPS SHOW NEARLY A 75% CHANCE THAT THE US-41 CORRIDOR WEST
OF MARQUETTE TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SOME OF
THAT DIFFERENCE MAY BE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER,
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS HAVING A MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL RELATIVE TO THE HI-RES MODELS, WHICH
SUGGEST A DRY SLOT WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS THAT DROP HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS PACKAGE REPRESENTS A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THOSE TWO FORECASTING PHILOSOPHIES. ELSEWHERE, THE LREF
SUGGESTS A 30% OR GREATER CHANCE OF AN INCH OR GREATER OF WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND 15+% CHANCES FOR THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, THE CAMS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO COALESCE AROUND A SOLUTION FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORES, WHICH CONTINUE TO HAVE MODELED INGREDIENTS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (INCLUDING UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE
COINCIDENT WITH 400+ M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH), YET NEBULOUS FORCING MAY
LEAVE THESE INGREDIENTS UNASSEMBLED. STILL, ON THE CHANCE THAT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE OVERNIGHT, THE SPC GIVES
AROUND 5% CHANCES OF 1+" HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN 25
MILES OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORES. AS FAR AS WINTER HEADLINES ARE
CONCERNED, WILL ELECT TO PUNT TO THE MID SHIFT GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY
IN PRECIP COVERAGE/IMPACTS BETWEEN THE CAMS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES,
THOUGH SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER FORMING, WHICH
COULD SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT IS NOT COVERED BY EITHER SUITE
OF MODELS AND COULD NECESSITATE A REACTIONARY SPS.
AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST, PRECIP WINDS
DOWN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME 15-30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT
IN FOR UPSLOPE/MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10 C, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COOL NORTHWESTERLIES TO NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES SUB-FREEZING FOR THE KEWEENAW AND COUNTIES
EAST ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES.
RELIEF FROM PRECIPITATION IS BRIEF. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PROCEEDS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A ~1000MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE KC/OMAHA
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY TO THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY, WITH
+/- 200MI IN EACH CARDINAL DIRECTION FOR ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THIS WILL
DRIVE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE LOW TO FRIDAY MORNING'S SYSTEM-TRAILING PRECIPITATION.
WHILE SOME SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES IS UNDERSTANDABLE IN THE DETAILS,
THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT ASPECTS OF THREATENING WEATHER IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN, THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN-
BORDERING COUNTIES, WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MUCAPE PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 100 J/KG OF UP TO 40% THURSDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WARM NOSE TO SET UP WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WHICH TRANSLATES TO THE GEFS/GEPS TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 30-40% CHANCES OF ICE ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING 0.1" BY
FRIDAY MORNING (AND UP TO 30% CHANCES OF 0.25" FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN). HOWEVER, IF A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW
OCCURS (OR THE WARM ADVECTION IS ON THE LOWER END OF FORECAST), A
MORE SNOWY SOLUTION IS ON THE TABLE, WITH THE LREF SHOWING 30-60%
CHANCES OF 6+" OF SNOWFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS UP
TO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW, SO THERE ARE A
WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WORTH MONITORING ESPECIALLY
AS THE PARENT TROUGH ENTERS THE US RADIOSONDE NETWORK TOMORROW.
FRANKLY, IT IS AMAZING TO HAVE THE GOOD ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
WE HAVE NOW GIVEN THE PARENT TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROUGHLY HALFWAY
BETWEEN HAWAII AND SAN JOSE, CA.
SPEAKING OF UPSTREAM SYSTEMS, A 500MB CLOSED LOW THAT STARTED TODAY
IN THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PIVOTING FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK, A CO LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM IN SOME FLAVOR, THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH AT
THIS POINT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SUCH A FEATURE. THE CEILING
OF HOW IMPACTFUL THIS SYSTEM COULD BE IS HIGH, WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE LREF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL SATURDAY, THOUGH THE FLOOR IS LOW, 10TH PERCENTILE SNOW
TOTALS ARE LITERALLY 0. IMPACTFUL ICE IS A SIMILAR STORY, THOUGH
CHANCES OF OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ARE ONLY AROUND 25%.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY, AS EURO ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF 100+ J/KG OF MUCAPE IS AROUND 30% FOR THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY, WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST OCCURS. GENERAL TREND HAS MVFR BEING MOST LIKELY LATE THIS
EVENING. AT KIWD, CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AT IFR,
BUT A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING WHEN
LIFR IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN. AT KCMX, WHERE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW BY MORNING, IFR CONDITIONS SETUP OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY DIPPING
TO LIFR TUESDAY MORNING DURING THE SNOWFALL. AT KSAW, LIGHT UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED, SUPPORTING ON AND OFF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FALL TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ONGOING AS NORTHEASTERLIES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH LOCALIZED
EFFECTS OF FUNNELING WINDS CAUSING SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KT AROUND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND AROUND THE TWIN HARBORS
NEARSHORES THIS EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS AROUND 25 KT SPREAD
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT LATE
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD WAVES OF 5-7 FT ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. A QUIET PERIOD
IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHERE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THURSDAY, THESE WINDS INCREASE TO
GALES, LASTING UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE WINDS BACK NORTHERLY
AROUND 25 KT FOR FRIDAY. ACTIVE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHERE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION AT SOME POINT, DRIVING AROUND 25%+ PERCENT CHANCES OF
GALES AS IT PASSES. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED PERIODICALLY THIS WEEK AS COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
INTERACTS WITH BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...GS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page