655
FXUS63 KMQT 041859
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15%)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON.
- BENIGN WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL CA WITH RIDGING STACKED ON TOP OF THE CA LOW AND OVER
MEXICO WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
CONUS. THIS IS A QUITE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE NEAR TERM.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NEAR 982 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH AND
BRING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN UP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERCLAP OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST (AND
LIGHTNINGCAST HAS PRESENTED SOME LOCATIONS OF ~10% LIGHTNING PROBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON), THOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED YET.
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT, THOUGH UPSTREAM, SOME REMNANT FAIR WEATHER CU IS OBSERVED.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR WEST, WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS,
WHICH ARE AS HIGH AS 48 MPH AT CMX, WILL DECLINE BELOW 20 MPH
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH THE BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING THE MAJOR SURFACE PRESSURE
SYSTEMS FAR AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES, THE DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS AS THE BLOCK IS
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP MOSTLY BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE UP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND
EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY, NBM POPS ARE SUB-20. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON IN SPITE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 60 DEGREES OR LESS.
RHS ARE FORECAST TO DRY OUT TO THE 30S% RANGE IN THE INTERIOR AND
LOCALLY INTO THE 20S% RANGE ALONG THE STATE LINE, THOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF WINDS HAZARDOUS TO FIRE WEATHER IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN, AS
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FORECAST SUGGESTS PM WIND GUSTS REGULARLY NEAR
OR IN EXCESS OF 15 KT, THOUGH THE LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF 15 MPH
WINDS AND SUB-30 RH IS LESS THAN 10%. IT MAY BE SOME TIME BEFORE OUR
NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, AS THIS PATTERN IS SHOWING
NO CLEAR SIGNS OF BREAKING UP, AND THE NEXT TIME THE LREF SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF OVER 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIP IN A DAY IN EXCESS
OF 25% IS NOT UNTIL THE 13TH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AMID GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 KT WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THIS EVENING (HIGHEST AT CMX). CMX IS REPORTING MVFR
CIGS ON THE 17Z OB, AND CAN EXPECT THOSE CIGS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH
AROUND 20Z. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, BUT ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE NEARSHORES JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS FALL TO NEAR 25 KT
AROUND MIDNIGHT, LINGERING BETWEEN 20-25 KT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE MAJOR PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINING FAR AWAY FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY, FIRST FALLING BELOW 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT, BELOW 5 FT BY
TUESDAY EVENING, AND THEN BELOW 3 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243-244-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...GS
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