144
FXUS63 KMQT 190544
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN QUIET AND WARMER ON
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS BUT MAIN SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING
BY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE, EHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR, HELPED TO
DEVELOP A BAND OF SNOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
DECENT RADAR ECHOES WITH THIS SNOW BAND, BUT WEBCAMS FROM ALGER
COUNTY SHOWED LITTLE VSBY REDUCTION AS IT MOVED ONSHORE. BAND OF
SNOW HAS NOW SETTLED TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WHILE CU FIELD AND
MAYBE SOME FLURRIES HAVE EXPANDED OVER REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT THE CU AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.
THICK MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER STRONG COOLING, SO WENT WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S, COOLEST INLAND. ON TUESDAY, SW
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MID
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES
MAY SHOW QUITE A GRADIENT ON TUESDAY BASED ON CLOUDS AND ALSO WHERE
WINDS ARE COMING OFF LK MICHIGAN. MIXING UP TO H85 WITH SUNSHINE
COULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID, MAYBE UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.
MEANWHILE, FLOW OFF CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN (WHERE SOME ICE COVER IS
STILL PRESENT) ALONG WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND LONGER IN THE DAY
MAY KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID/UPPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WESTERN CANADA RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING
PCPN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN SUPPORTED BY MODERATE 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET.
MOST OF THE PCPN, BETWEEN 06Z-18Z, IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW
BEFORE ENOUGH DAYTIME WARMING PUSHES TEMPS INTO UPPER 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH.
THURSDAY, THE NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH MAINLY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS
THAN ANY AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A SFC RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REGION. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY.
MONDAY, MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST AS THE FAVORED ECMWF AND GFS-FV3
WITH A STRONGER/SLOWER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA KEEP DRY WEATHER
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. LOWER END POPS REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY AS LESS
AMPFLIFED GFS/GEFS ALLOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY AT ALL SITES
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER
TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING AT ALL SITES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA.
MARINE
(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019
OVERALL, EXPECT WINDS 25 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07/VOSS
MARINE...JLA
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