812
FXUS63 KMQT 162239
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
639 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
WITH A 992 MB LOW CENTERED IN QUEBEC LEAVING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE WNW WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ALOFT, HAVE SEEN THE BANDS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING DEFORM INTO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
TONIGHT, LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST EAST OF MUNISING,
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. ELSEWHERE, WITH
CLEAR SKIES, IT WILL PROBABLY BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A DECENT GRADIENT WIND ALOFT, BUT SKIES GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR ARGUES FOR PBL DECOUPLING AND COOLING. LOW TEMPS
ARE ALWAYS TRICKY ON THESE KINDS OF NIGHTS WHERE IT ALL HINGES ON
WHETHER OR NOT WE DECOUPLE. HEDGED TOWARDS YES, THE PBL WILL
DECOUPLE, AND THUS LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND
AROUND 40 IN THE AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW, BUT SLOWLY. BEFORE IT DOES SO,
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS. HOWEVER, WITH 850 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2
C WARMER AND MORE SUNSHINE, SHOULD SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN EARLY THIS WEEK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEK AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME LOWS GET TO THE MID 30S OVER THE COLD SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR
WEST SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ONLY GET
DOWN INTO THE 40S; HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BUILD TO
THE 60S ON MONDAY. EVEN THE LOW 70S LOOK POSSIBLE AT SPOTS TUESDAY
(ENSEMBLES SHOW 850MB TEMPS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT).
AROUND WEDNESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF
A STRONGER LOW IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. THIS STRONGER LOW
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO LOWS SHOULD BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE WEAKER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW OF THE STRONGER LOW.
BEHIND THE LOW, LAKE-EFFECT RAIN DEFINITELY LOOKS POSSIBLE, AS LAKE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 13C AND MODEL 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 0
TO -5C. THERE ALSO IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX INTO THE LAKE-
EFFECT RAIN AS WELL LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, THE SNOWFALL
APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE WARMTH OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE,
WHICH VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. EVEN IF IT DOES SNOW, CURRENTLY
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION, AS THE SURFACE SHOULD MELT IT ALL
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES THIS FALL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES. CMX WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY.
MARINE
(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
NW WINDS 20-25 KTS ON THE WEST HALF AND 25-30 KTS ON THE EAST HALF
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A DEEPENING LOW OVER QUEBEC
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS AT THE HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS OVER
THE EAST HALF. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGER NE WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, SPREADING TO THE EATS HALF FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT AT THIS POINT GALES LOOK UNLIKELY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...RJC
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