418
FXUS63 KMQT 101809
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 PM EST SUN DEC 10 2023
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TODAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THRU TODAY, MAINLY INTO
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE, BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 1 TO 3
INCHES.
- COOLER TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES JUST FALLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE THAT
PRODUCED RAIN OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI HAS RACED NNE TO E OF JAMES BAY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS NORTHERN LWR MI.
THIS WAVE GENERATED THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW THAT MOVED INTO
UPPER MI AND THEN CHANGED TO JUST SNOW. WITH THE WAVE SHIFTING AWAY
FROM THE FCST AREA, DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO DEPART,
RESULTING IN A SHARP WEAKENING OF PCPN INTO WESTERN UPPER MI
RECENTLY. THIS DRYING HAS ALSO BEEN SUFFICIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MI TO REMOVE ICE NUCLEATION ALOFT, RESULTING IN -FZDZ
FOR A TIME IN THE HOUGHTON AREA PER KCMX OB AND WEBCAMS IN HOUGHTON.
OTHER MDOT WEBCAMS OVER THE W AND THE KIWD OB INDICATE -FZDZ IS ALSO
OCCURRING AT TIMES. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S F.
MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE -9 TO -11C RANGE
TODAY, SUFFICIENT FOR LES WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SFC WATER TEMPS
AVERAGING 5 TO 6C. HOWEVER, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
FROM W TO E THRU THIS MORNING, AND INVERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO 3-5KFT W AND GENERALLY 5-6KFT E. THE DGZ WILL BE ABOVE THE
INVERSION W AND MOSTLY ABOVE THE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER E,
RESULTING IN LOWER SLRS, LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 TO 1. PUT IT
ALL TOGETHER, AND LES WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GIVEN THE POOR LES
PARAMETERS W, -SHSN WILL MOSTLY END OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BY AFTN.
THERE MAY YET BE SOME MORE SPOTTY -FZDZ EARLY, BUT WITH SNOW ALREADY
ON THE ROADS, THE IMPACT OF ANY -FZDZ ON TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL. TO THE E, EXPECT NMRS -SHSN E THIS MORNING TO BECOME
SCATTERED EARLY THIS AFTN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER 1
TO 3 INCHES FROM 08Z TO EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LWR 30S F.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY TO
LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER GUSTY WIND DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- OTHER THAN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND TUESDAY, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH 15-
25 DEGREES TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
-NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOWFALLS ACROSS UPPER MI OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
ANY REMAINING LIGHT LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY
EVENING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.
RIDGING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL YIELD A TRANQUIL DECEMBER DAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 30S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND UPPER MI LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST MON EVENING/NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND
-16C. THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND QUICK MOVING
NATURE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK, MOSTLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST EAST. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST
WINDS OF 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40
MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW. THESE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MAKE THE FCST MID
20S TO LOWER 30S HIGH TEMPS FEEL EVEN CHILLIER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
HOW MILD ITS BEEN SO FAR THIS EARLY WINTER.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING RETURNS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FCST
+300M 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY AND +25C 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY SETTING UP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
THE ECMWF EFI ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOMALOUSLY WARM MAX
TEMPS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY NEAR
50F COULD BE THREATENED, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY SUNSHINE. IN
ADDITION, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON NORTHER SIDE OF RIDGING
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY. 92H WINDS ARE IN THE 50-60 KNOT
RANGE, SO MIXING WILL DETERMINE HOW GUSTY WINDS ACTUALLY GET.
SOME MODEST COOLING WILL OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VERY
BRIEF COOL DOWN AROUND THE 18TH.
THE PROSPECT OF A GREEN CHRISTMAS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
U.P. IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN DEC 10 2023
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNDER A FALLING INVERSION
ALLOWING MVFR CIGS AND SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PREVAIL AT TIMES OVER THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AT IWD AND SAW, AND
AT CMX BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST AND DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
MARINE
(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023
OUTSIDE OF A FEW REMAINING GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. WESTERLY WIND GALE
FORCE GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER A LULL ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT
ANOTHER GALE ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KNOTS
BY FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ263.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...MZ
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