204  
FXUS63 KMQT 250721  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
321 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH, GUSTS MOSTLY UNDER 15 MPH, TO  
HOLD CONDITIONS AT BORDERLINE.  
- TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE THIS WEEKEND AND ANOTHER INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. A BRIEF PERIOD  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,  
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024  
 
IT'S A QUIET, CHILLY EARLY MORNING ACROSS UPPER MI WITH BROAD SFC  
HIGH PRES ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UNDER VERY LIGHT OR  
CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR COLUMN (PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-  
55PCT OF NORMAL) TO FURTHER AID RADIATIONAL COOLING, TEMPS CURRENTLY  
RANGE THRU THE 20S TO 30 F. MOST OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ARE  
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS F. AS OF 07Z, THE STONINGTON RAWS  
AND THE NEW STANLEY RAWS SITE IN FAR NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ARE  
COLDEST AT 13F.  
 
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS INTO  
MANITOBA/ADJACENT ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT E TODAY. AXIS OF  
THE RIDGE WILL REACH UPPER MI TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES  
RIDGE WILL ALSO DRIFT E TODAY, EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
QUEBEC BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EVENING. END RESULT IS A  
DRY DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS RANGING THRU THE  
50S, BUT INTO THE LWR 60S F OVER PORTIONS OF THE W. TEMPS WILL BE  
COOLER LOCALLY ALONG THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY WHERE ONSHORE WIND  
COMPONENT DEVELOPS EARLIEST. DRY COLUMN WILL RESULT IN MIX DOWN OF  
DRIER AIR AS BOUNDARY LAYER BUILDS UNDER FULL SOLAR INSOLATION. THIS  
LEADS TO RH FALLING TO 20-25PCT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF UPPER MI  
TODAY. WITH AXIS OF HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
BE THE RULE, BUT THE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ALONG  
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT BACKS THE WIND. WITH THE LOW  
RH EXPECTED, WINDS, FORTUNATELY, WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE  
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10MPH AND GUSTS MOSTLY  
UNDER 15MPH. ANY GUSTS ABOVE 15MPH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY INTO PORTIONS  
OF DELTA AND EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AS LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE SURGES  
N IN THE AFTN. AS A RESULT, BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024  
 
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW, A  
SHORTWAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE GETS  
KICKED OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z FRI AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY  
TILTED BY 00Z SAT. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
12Z SAT AS THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  
THE SHORTWAVE STILL AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT THROUGH 00Z  
SUN AND THEN THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HEADS NORTHEAST INTO  
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN. DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500  
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVES BY 00Z SAT OVER THE FAR WEST AND  
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SUN. SLOWED DOWN POPS ON FRI  
FURTHER AND EVEN INTO FRI EVENING AS MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DELAY  
THE ONSET OF PCPN. ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WOULD ALSO  
ARGUE THAT LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE WITH A DRY  
SOUTHEAST FLOW, SO THIS WOULD ARGUE AGAIN TO DELAY POPS ON FRI.  
 
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER  
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT HEADS NORTHEAST  
AND NEGATIVELY TILTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MON. THIS  
SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO 12Z TUE. UPPER RIDGING SETS  
UP OVER THE PLAINS 12Z WED AND BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME 12Z  
THU. ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN CONTINUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TUE DOES  
LOOK TO BE THE DRIEST DAY ALONG WITH THU.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024  
 
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY  
AT IWD AND SAW THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.  
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT CMX.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KTS INTO  
THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT  
WITH SOUTHEAST/EAST TO 20-30 KTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT; THE  
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER WATERS  
OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT  
RESULTING IN 20-30 KT NORTH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST  
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN  
AROUND 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS  
TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR ISLE ROYALE AND ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF  
LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS  
YIELDING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH  
BACK BELOW 20 KTS BY TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON  
LONG TERM...07  
AVIATION...ROLFSON  
MARINE...07  
 
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