330
FXUS63 KMQT 311108
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY COULD
ALSO BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-35
MPH. ALTHOUGH EXACT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SOME MINOR
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SNOWFALL WRAPS UP THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES INTO CANADA. IN
RESPONSE, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROWAL MOVING PROGRESSIVELY
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA, WITH ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL REMAINING
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BEHIND THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL (CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P.). EXPECT THIS UPSLOPE SNOWFALL TO
END BY THE MID MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR BEHIND THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION. OVERALL, WE COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF WET
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FALL OVER THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT A INCH OR LESS TO FALL OVER THE EAST HALF BEFORE THE SNOWFALL
ENDS THIS MORNING.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER TODAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNNY
SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE YOOP, ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO AROUND 30 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH CENTRAL. NEVERTHELESS, WE SHOULD
ALREADY BEGIN TO SEE SOME ICE AND/OR SNOWMELT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WORKS AGAINST THE FRESH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM, THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF
NOTE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE A ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BOOKENDED BY STRONG
SURFACE HIGHS EARLY AND LATE IN THE WEEK. SPREAD IS STILL HIGH ON
THE PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, BUT A NUMBER OF
WEATHER HAZARDS REMAIN IN PLAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN GROWS INTO THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND, BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR HIGH PRESSURE
INTERRUPTED BY WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY. WHILE SOME CAMS SHOW SOME FLURRIES DEFYING THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, DUE TO A LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN
MODELS AND THE FACT THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NIL
WITH SUCH FLURRIES, HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH THE GEFS RESOLVES A MEAN OF
1027MB OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO 18Z TUESDAY, WILL GIVE SOME PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN
AND HIGHS INTO THE 30S. CLEAR SKIES AND PWAT IN THE BOTTOM 10% OF
CLIMATOLOGY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS UP TO 30% LIKELY TO FALL TO 0 DEGREES IN THE
INTERIOR WEST TUESDAY MORNING PER THE NBM.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM WHERE A 500MB TROUGH ACQUIRES A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS
SHOWING PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE LOW 990S MB. SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW IS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS AT 06Z
THURSDAY LOWS SPREAD FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA TO NORTH OF GEORGIAN
BAY. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT WINTER EVENT, A STRONG GULF
CONNECTION HAS NAEFS IVT VALUES ABOVE THE 97.5TH PERCENTILE AND
850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOLLOWING WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONCE AGAIN, THIS COULD BE A MESS
OF PRECIP TYPES, THOUGH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING THE UP RESIDING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND/OR UNDER A DRY SLOT.
DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE SETUP TO THIS MOST RECENT WINTER
EVENT, ICE STORM CONDITIONS ARE LESS THAN 5% LIKELY UP-WIDE PER THE
00Z LREF, AND CHANCES OF A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ARE ABOUT 15-30%
ACROSS THE UP. WITH TEMPERATURES (AND THUS, PTYPE AND SNOW RATIOS)
IN FLUX, DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL ARE A BIT FUZZY, BUT TRENDS IN THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE PUSHED THE HIGHEST CORE OF HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OUT OF
THE UP. DESPITE THIS, A LOW-END ADVISORY IS STILL 30-70% LIKELY FOR
AROUND 4 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL. BEYOND PRECIPITATION, THIS COULD
ALSO BE A GUSTY PERIOD, WITH THE EFI SHOWING VALUES OVER 0.8 AND
SHIFT OF TAILS OVER 0 (LOCALLY OVER 1). FOR NOW, THAT LOOKS LIKE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY BUT THE EURO ENSEMBLE
SHOWS GUSTS TO 58+ MPH AROUND 30% PROBABLE FOR THE KEWEENAW, SO WIND-
SENSITIVE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST CLOSELY.
ONCE AGAIN, THAT FORECAST IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS THE NBM ONLY SHOWS
30% CHANCES OF CRACKING 45 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE OVER THE
REGION, WITH 1020S TO 1030S MB HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. MEAN 500MB HEIGHT CHARTS
SHOW GOOD FAVORABILITY TOWARDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING
DIGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS STRUGGLE TO
COALESCE AROUND ANY CONSISTENT FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND,
BUT THE PATTERN DOES SEEM TO FAVOR PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
INTERRUPTED BY WEAKER SYSTEMS, MORE OF THE STYLE OF ALBERTA
CLIPPERS, THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD THAT STRONGER SYSTEMS CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. THE CPC OUTLOOKS ARE NOW PICKING UP MORE ON
THE RAMIFICATIONS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY, WITH BOTH THE 8-14 DAY AND 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOKS SHOWING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR THE UP, THOUGH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP/TEMPS FOR WEEKS 3-4.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM TODAY,
EXPECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE SEEN EARLY TODAY AT SAW, BUT EXPECT
THE WINDS TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH COMES IN LATER. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS OVER THE WEST HALF THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND OVER THE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WAVES SETTLE BELOW 4FT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TRACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS BY TUESDAY EVENING, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
20-30 KTS WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE GREAT LAKES. GALES OF 35-45 KT ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CHANCES OF STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT UP TO 40-50% CHANCE. WITH THE CHANCES OF HIGHER
GUSTS INCREASING, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, WINDS FALL
TO 20-30 KTS AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST FOR THURSDAY. WINDS FALL
BELOW 20 KTS THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. PEAK WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 14-18FT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE, AROUND 10 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES LIKELY FALL TO BETWEEN 4-8FT BY
THURSDAY MORNING, SETTLING BELOW 4FT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
LIKELY REMAIN 20 KTS OR LESS MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ162-243>245-251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...GS
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