590
FXUS63 KMQT 301735
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
SNOWBELTS TODAY. CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, LEADING TO LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- A CLIPPER IS SET TO BRING LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH TO THE UP THIS AFTERNOON, REINFORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE A QUICK
BURST OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NEW YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 411 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
RAP/SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A 978 MB LOW CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL BE INDICATIVE
OF A NNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC WHERE LIGHT BANDING
STREAMS INTO ALGER COUNTY. EVEN THOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME, THEY ARE STILL GUSTING
INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. SO, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CAN STILL
CREATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LATER TODAY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED QUEBEC LOW PHASES WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADES BACK OVER JAMES BAY, A WEAK CLIPPER WAVE
IN THE FLOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. THIS WILL HELP BRING A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR AT 850 MB, WHICH WILL SPARK AN UPTICK
IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. CAMS ESPECIALLY ZERO IN ON A BAND
SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY, WHERE A QUICK 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE AS WELL AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HEADLINES IN EITHER OF THESE PLACES WITH FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW
AND WESTERN US RIDGING BECOME ESTABLISHED. ASIDE FROM THE SNOW,
CHILLY NW FLOW WILL ENABLE A COOLER TEMPERATURE PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEW YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND OCCASIONALLY SINGLE DIGITS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AND BREEZY WINDS
SUGGESTS WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO AT THE MIDNIGHT BALL DROP TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
NW WIND LAKE EFFECT SHSN PATTERN ALREADY ONGOING AT CMX AND EAST OF
SAW WILL DEFINE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS TAF PERIOD, THOUGH IWD WILL
NEED SOME TIME FOR WINDS TO VEER FROM THE CURRENT SWERLIES. SAW
BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE NW WIND LES BANDS WILL LEAD TO
MULTIPLE PROB30 PERIODS AS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME, BANDS WILL BE
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE VC OF THE AIRFIELD, BUT WHEN THEY DO MEANDER
OVER THE AIRFIELD, MVFR CEILINGS WITH -SHSN WILL BE THE IMPACTS. CMX
WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST IMPACTS AS THEY ARE ALREADY AT IFR VISIBILITY
AND ARE UP TO 40 PERCENT LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFR VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. ONCE NW WIND LAKE EFFECT SHSN TAKES
HOLD AT IWD, MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH OVER 50% CHANCE OF PERIODS OF
IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY, BUT
THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A WEAK SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR THIS PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE LAKE.
BORDERLINE GALES TO 30-35 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND SOME PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE MAY HAVE TO
HAVE GALE WARNINGS EXTENDED.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ241>251-
263>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ244>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDUD
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...THOMPSON
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