784
FXUS63 KMQT 152034
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
434 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
U.P., WITH THE VILAS/GOGEBIC COUNTY LINE BEING THE CURRENT HOT
SPOT WHERE THE BETTER CAPE AND LL LAPSE RATES RESIDE AT THE
MOMENT (ESSENTIALLY WHERE EARLIER CLEARING HELPED TO PROLONG THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS THERE). WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES MARGINAL
(25-30KTS., 0-6KM), THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PULSE UP
QUICKLY BUT STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE VERY LONG, THEREBY LIMITING THE
SEVERE THREAT (ALTHOUGH SPS-WORTHY DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). HOWEVER, THERE ARE TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST TO BE
WATCHED AS THE EVENING CONTINUES: 1. A MCV THAT WAS IN SOUTHERN
MN, WHICH HAS MOVED INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON, NOW
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY; AND 2. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MN, ON ITS WAY TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES YIELD THEIR OWN RESPECTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN
THE LOCAL DYNAMICS, WITH BOTH PRIMARILY CONTAINING GUSTY TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS (DCAPE VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.P.). FOR #1, THE TRAJECTORY HAS AT LEAST SOME OF
THIS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLIPPING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.P.; FOR #2, THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN, EVEN THOUGH THE
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DECLINE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER OF THESE
FEATURES WILL CONTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY SORT OF FLOOD THREAT.
BOTTOM LINE: STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING, WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL POSSIBLE; POP CHANCES PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY WANING.
BEHIND IT ALL, SOME LINGERING LL STRATUS MAY HANG OUT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WARM, MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE HIT-AND-MISS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
AS THE DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER HUDSON BAY TUESDAY EVENING, WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. BUT WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE
FRONT FROM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUING TO LINGER AROUND THE AREA,
CAN'T RULE OUT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL EXIT MORE OF THE SAME HIGH CAPE, HIGH PWAT, LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WE'VE BEEN DEALING WITH FOR A FEW DAYS NOW MEANING
THAT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT GIVEN HOW CONVECTIVELY CHAOTIC
THIS PATTERN IS, NOT REALLY WORTH TRYING TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC AREAS
FOR NOW AND INSTEAD HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.
AT THE MOMENT WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY LIKELY DRY DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS 16-17 C, STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. BUT IT'S A SHORT-LIVED REPRIEVE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WAA PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT
OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MODELED. WITH PWAT AGAIN RISING TO NEARLY 2.0"
ON THE (EVEN) WARM(ER) SIDE OF THE FRONT, WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS PERHAPS
SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. THERE COULD THEN BE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING THURSDAY MIDDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM'S "COLD" FRONT COMES THROUGH. WITH
A STRONG LLJ OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CREATING FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES, AND PLENTY OF CAPE, THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE
MORNING WAVE CLEARING OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE
HEATING MIDDAY, AND THAT'S FAR FROM A GUARANTEE AT THIS POINT. SO
JUST STICK A PIN IN THURSDAY FOR NOW.
UNFORTUNATELY THE FRONT THURSDAY DOESN'T ACTUALLY ACT AS A COLD
FRONT AT ALL AS IT LINGERS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SURGES BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY THEREFORE LOOKS NOT JUST HOT AND
STICKY, BUT ALMOST CERTAINLY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. 850
MB TEMPS CLIMB TO ABOUT 21-22 C, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOW TO PERHAPS
EVEN MID 90S FOR HIGHS. AND WITH A FAIRLY STIFF WSW WIND, THERE
WON'T BE ANY RELIEF ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION, WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS HOT AND HUMID
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
KSAW'S CLEARING (AT LEAST PARTIAL) IS ON THE HORIZON AS THE SUN
HELPS TO CLEAR OUT THE LL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU FIELD IS
RAPIDLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE EXITING MCV, WHICH WILL BE SEEN AT
BOTH KIWD AND KSAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO ALL THREE TERMINALS
AS A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MN RAMPS
UP AND APPROACHES UPPER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOOK FOR REDUCTIONS IN VISBY CATEGORIES AS THESE CLUSTERS PRODUCE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, IN ADDITION TO LOWERED CEILINGS.
UPON THE PASSAGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING LL CLOUDS, WHICH COULD KEEP
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, S TO SW WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REAPPEAR BY MID-
MORNING TUESDAY.
MARINE
(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MARCHING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE VERY FAR WESTERN AREA (MN AREA). THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, KICKING UP WAVES, AND
PERHAPS CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD.
FOG REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH IT
BUILDING OVERNIGHT BEHIND ANY RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH. THE FOG
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO TOMORROW, LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
THERE IS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG, PERHAPS DENSE, WILL
AGAIN REEMERGE ON THURSDAY BEHIND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...LG
MARINE...LG
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