641
FXUS63 KMQT 112002
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK. IN ADDITION, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF MAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR SOME
FAIRWEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WERE STILL STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS AS OF
2 PM EDT AS CLOUD COVER WAS A BIT LATE TO SCATTER OUT TODAY. HAVE
BUMPED DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO GET DOWN INTO THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS
AND EVEN INTO THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR WEST, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT RAIN TO ARRIVE IN
THE FAR WEST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, DEPICTING A GENERAL TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LATEST NBM SHOWS ABOUT A 30-50% CHANCE TO REACH A HALF
INCH OF RAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE KEWEENAW TO THE SHORES OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE UP WHERE LATEST HREF DEPICTS A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY IN COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, BUT WOULDN'T EXPECT MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. COULD SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AND FOR MOST OF THURSDAY, RIDGING
BUILDS IN AND WINDS GO LIGHT OVER LAND; EXPECT A CLEAR-SKY DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMAL (MOSTLY LOW 60'S, BUT
REACHING INTO THE LOW 70'S IN THE INTERIOR WEST) ON THURSDAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SECOND CLIPPER PASSES JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO QUEBEC BETWEEN MIDDAY
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS CLIPPER'S PASSAGE CORRESPONDS WITH WARMER,
MOISTER AIR REACHING UP FROM THE GULF. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS
(WIDESPREAD HIGH 60'S/LOW 70'S) AND HIGHER RH'S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THESE TWO CLIPPERS,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE ALLAYED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, DESPITE INTERMITTENT WINDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK. WE CAN LOOK TO THE WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK TO RAMP UP THE REGION'S (THUS FAR)
DELAYED GREEN-UP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER MICHIGAN STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, AS A CLIPPER
APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT, EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES AND CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MVFR LEVELS. BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW, CMX AND SAW COULD SEE FURTHER
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. FOR NOW, THOUGH,
WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE LIFR THREAT WITH PROB30S. IN ADDITION TO
THE CEILING RESTRICTIONS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS AFTER TUE 09Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER,
AS A CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY EVEN GUSTING UP TO GALES OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKE BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW ARRIVES. UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING AS
PROBS REMAIN ABOVE 60% THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, AS
THE LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE. AS THE
CLIPPER CONTINUES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND TOWARDS
THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO INITIALLY
WEAKEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
AS REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES BEHIND THE LOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE, WITH GALES UP
TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE NEAR MARQUETTE AND
MUNISING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING (AROUND A 60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST LOW-
END GALES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM).
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DWINDLE WITH TIME LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THE LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PASSES BY. HOWEVER, WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE; SOME GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS COULD ALSO BE SEEN OVER THE
EASTERN LAKE TOO COME FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-
249-264>266.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ248>250-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB/RE
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP/CB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page