871
FXUS63 KMQT 301202
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF
UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD (6AM TO 8AM)
OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS, BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBLITY ARE LIKELY (50-
70% CHANCE) OVER MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COME ONSHORE
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
- GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE. GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED OVER THE LAND.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE
UP.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL COMES WITH A FAST-HITTING
CLIPPER LOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG HE MN/WI BORDER. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF
1010MB WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE U.P WITH
SURFACE VISIBLITY OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE
RANGE. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO
NORTHERN MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER BAND WAS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE WHICH WAS STARTING TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE U.P'S WESTERN SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO MID 20S NEAR THE
LAKESHORES.
THROUGH THIS MORNING THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM IL TO
LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST, HOWEVER, LES SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY,
RESULTING IN STRONG CONVERGENCE. MODEL REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS
SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED BANDS WITH EMBEDDED MESOLOW FEATURES COMING
INTO THE WESTERN U.P AND KEWEENAW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.P, MAINLY MARQUETTE, BARAGA AND ALGER
COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING. LES THEN SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
NORTHWEST WIND BELTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW 1
IN/HR SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE BANDS (50-70% CHANCE)
THROUGH 8AM EST WITH INTENSITY QUICKLY DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 35 MPH), ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKESHORE. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
WIND/BLOWING SNOW COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW VISIBLITY (DOWN TO
1/4 MILE) BETWEEN 6AM AND 8AM IN MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES ALONG
WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS, MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
DECREASE. BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP IN THE
NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS BUT MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILES WILL
LIMIT INTENSITY.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS
THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS TURN WESTERLY. THIS WILL END THE LAKE
EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW WHERE A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED SNOW
BAND MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH MORNING
LES WILL CONTINUE TO SOME EXTENT ON MONDAY, AS THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
FOR LES WILL BE ABUNDANT CONSIDERING 50-90% CHANCES WITHIN THE LREF
ENSEMBLE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES BEING AT LEAST -10 C OR COLDER OVER
AROUND 5 C TEMPERATURE LAKE SUPERIOR ALL WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RARE SW-WIND LES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MONDAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 1 INCH BY TUESDAY MORNING ARE
ONLY ABOVE 50% NORTH OF LAURIUM. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT SYSTEM
THREATENING TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE UP WILL COME WITH A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE SNOW TOTALS LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT, CHANCES OF MULTIPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING NW
WIND LES CLIMBS TO 30-60 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE
COOL NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE UP, WITH
20-40% CHANCES OF SUB-ZERO LOWS ALONG THE MI/WI STATE LINE.
UNCERTAINTY THEN GROWS IN THE FORECAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ON WHEN A LOW PRESSURE MIGHT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TO BREAK UP THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE CPC OUTLOOKS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MONTH OF DECEMBER PREFER HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SO HOPES FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS
FOR THE UP REMAIN HIGH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
AS SYNOPTIC SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A LAKE EFFECT REGIME THIS MORNING,
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. CURRENTLY, IFR
IS THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT
CMX. NONETHELESS, WILL CARRY A TEMPO FOR IFR AT CMX AS WELL THROUGH
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. AND
MEANWHILE, WILL CARRY TEMPOS AT IWD AND SAW FOR LIFR AS WELL FOR THE
SAME REASON DUE TO FLUCTUATING SNOW BANDS AND STRONG WINDS. BLOWING
SNOW COULD RESULT IN RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY AS NORTHERLY GUSTS
TOP OFF IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AS WELL. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO
REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THIS EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS, THOUGH,
COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING, BUT VFR IS MOST LIKELY TOO
OPTIMISTIC.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
NORTHERLY GALES TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE EASTERN PART OF
THE LAKE, EAST OF THE KEWEENAW, AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TO QUEBEC. OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE WINDS TO
30 KT ARE EXPECTED. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 20 KT. MONDAY, CHANCES OF A
BRIEF SOUTHWESTERLY GALE ARE AROUND 20-30 PERCENT OVER THE WEST HALF
OF THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW. IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW, NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS RAMP UP TO 30 KT WITH CHANCES OF GALES AROUND 40-60% ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS FALL BACK DOWN TO 25-30 KT FOR THURSDAY WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AND HOW STRONG THAT SYSTEM
MIGHT BE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>007-009-014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ245>248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GS/NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...GS/NL
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