072
FXUS63 KMQT 282103
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
QUICK-MOVING WINTER STORM IS NOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. SURFACE
OBS SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL POINTING TO THE
SURFACE LOW BEING CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY.
CORRESPONDINGLY, RADAR SHOWS THE DRYSLOT DOING ITS DIRTY WORK
CAUSING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO ERODE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P.
TOTALS WILL END UP BEING MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE WEST HALF WHERE
THE BETTER FGEN BANDING SET UP THIS MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BE OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 00Z AND OUT OF THE CWA
ENTIRELY BY AROUND 02Z. BECAUSE SNOW IS STILL ONGOING EVEN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES, LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THEY
WERE. HOWEVER, EVENING SHIFT CAN PROBABLY CANCEL THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES IN ABOUT AN HOUR.
TONIGHT, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THIS WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR. ANY WET OR SLUSHY SURFACES WILL FLASH-FREEZE
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ICY SPOTS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION, TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7 MB ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE DEEPENING/DEPARTING LOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE PBL REMAINING MIXED TO AROUND 2-3 KFT. WENT WITH THE HRRR
OVER THERE WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGHEST IN GUSTS, SHOWING 30-35 MPH
GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WIND WILL LEAD TO WAVES BUILDING TO AS
HIGH AS 14 FEET ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR, SO HAVE ISSUED A
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALGER & LUCE COUNTIES. WINDS, AND THUS
WAVES, WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH. WAVES SHOULD
FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
ONCE THIS COLD AIR SETTLES IN, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE NW WIND LES BELTS, MAINLY EAST HALF. THE QUESTION FOR THE
WEST HALF WILL BE HOW MUCH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS COVERED IN
ICE AND HOW WELL THE CAMS ARE RESOLVING IT. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE
GLERL ICE COVER ANALYSIS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH ICE COVER TO
INHIBIT MOST LES. HOWEVER, IT COULD SHIFT AROUND, AND THE ANALYSIS
COULD BE OFF. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WEST HALF SNOW BELTS ARE
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR JUST A THIN SATURATED LAYER/CLOUD DECK.
NONETHELESS, MANUALLY INCREASED POPS TO GET AT LEAST CHANCE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, BETWEEN THE LACK OF OPEN WATER AND
HEIGHTS RISING/THE COLUMN DRYING OUT, DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WEST. EAST HALF, WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER AND A LONGER
FETCH, SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT LES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AMOUNTING
TO GENERALLY 1-3". SOME CAMS HINT AT A MORE DOMINANT BAND CLIPPING
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LUCE COUNTY WHICH COULD PRODUCE UP TO 5" BUT
MOST OF THE HEAVY SNOW WITH THIS BAND, IF IT DEVELOPS, WILL FALL
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -22 TO -24 C MIDDAY,
EVEN MIXING OUT TO 1 KM AGL ONLY GIVES HIGHS AROUND 12-14 F MOST
AREAS. SO MARCH WILL INDEED COME IN LIKE A LION THIS YEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BUSY BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER AND DRY MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK. INITIALLY, WITH
THE OUTGOING MONDAY SHORTWAVE AND RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
REGION, CLEAR SKIES, RECENT SNOWFALL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL HELP
SEND MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO FOR THE INTERIOR
REGIONS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE BY THE LAKESHORES.
THE CULPRITS FOR THE BUSIER TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS TIED TO A WEAKENING 1031MB HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO. BEING
CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SYSTEMS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH A STOUT LLJ WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
WINDS AT 850MB WITHIN THIS JET LOOK TO BE NEAR 60KTS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD MIX UP TO AROUND 900-875MB, WHICH COULD
BRING WIDESPREAD 25-30 MPH WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SOME AREAS,
PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH DURING THE DAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
RAISES CONCERNS FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORES. THIS REGIME WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WAA
INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE TEMPS INTO THE MID-
UPPER 30S BY AFTERNOON. SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTH COULD
EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 40S. BY THE EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
SETTLING DOWN AS THE LOW OVER ONTARIO SKATES SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE LOSE THE DINURAL MIXING. EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGH
TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS RIDGING
SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND DEEP TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN GREENLAND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INITIALLY PUT UPPER
MICHIGAN IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL DEVELOP INTO NW
FLOW MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
VARIOUS HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO DIP SOUTH AND KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT DRIZZLY OR FLURRIES
DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
GENERALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN SOME FORM WITH A FEW COLD PUNCHES AT
850MB BEING POSSIBLE, SLIGHTLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO LARGELY BE IN
THE 30S WITH SOME HIGH 20S POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR WEST ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED, WITH LOW 20S BY THE LAKESHORES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
SNOW STORM HAS ARRIVED AT IWD AND CMX. EXPECT VIS ALTERNATING
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW MOVES ACROSS THOSE TERMINALS. IT'S A QUICK-MOVING STORM THOUGH,
SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS
EVEN A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 00Z. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND SOME LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN KEEP
THOSE TWO SITES MVFR FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AT SAW THINGS ARE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN
STAYING WEST OF THE TERMINAL SO FAR, AND LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONTINUING TO NUDGE THE PRECIP SHIELD WEST. REGARDLESS, FOG REMAINS
PRESENT WITH VIS BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO FILL
IN WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR AND BE HEAVY FOR A FEW HOURS. LIKE AT IWD
AND CMX, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
AS TODAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LAKE, EXPECT
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. IN THE EAST GALES TO 40KT
LOOK POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY AS THIS
LOW LIFTS, INCREASING CAA WILL SURGE COLD AIR BACK INTO THE AREA,
PROMPTING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS LAKE-WIDE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. BOTH GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN AFFECT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TUESDAY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO
AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
WITH WIDESPREAD 30KTS TO LOW END GALES DURING THE DAY AS A STOUT LLJ
MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER
THE LOW TO THE NORTH SKATES AWAY, EXPECT CALM WINDS BELOW 20KTS TO
SETTLE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001>006-009>011-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>251-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ243>248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY
FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/
MONDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJC
MARINE...JP
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