784  
FXUS63 KMQT 152034  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
434 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
U.P., WITH THE VILAS/GOGEBIC COUNTY LINE BEING THE CURRENT HOT  
SPOT WHERE THE BETTER CAPE AND LL LAPSE RATES RESIDE AT THE  
MOMENT (ESSENTIALLY WHERE EARLIER CLEARING HELPED TO PROLONG THE  
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS THERE). WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES MARGINAL  
(25-30KTS., 0-6KM), THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PULSE UP  
QUICKLY BUT STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE VERY LONG, THEREBY LIMITING THE  
SEVERE THREAT (ALTHOUGH SPS-WORTHY DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION). HOWEVER, THERE ARE TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST TO BE  
WATCHED AS THE EVENING CONTINUES: 1. A MCV THAT WAS IN SOUTHERN  
MN, WHICH HAS MOVED INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON, NOW  
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY; AND 2. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS  
NORTHERN MN, ON ITS WAY TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH OF  
THESE FEATURES YIELD THEIR OWN RESPECTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN  
THE LOCAL DYNAMICS, WITH BOTH PRIMARILY CONTAINING GUSTY TO  
PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS (DCAPE VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED ACROSS  
THE WESTERN U.P.). FOR #1, THE TRAJECTORY HAS AT LEAST SOME OF  
THIS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLIPPING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
U.P.; FOR #2, THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN, EVEN THOUGH THE  
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DECLINE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER OF THESE  
FEATURES WILL CONTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT  
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY SORT OF FLOOD THREAT.  
BOTTOM LINE: STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING, WITH SEVERE  
POTENTIAL POSSIBLE; POP CHANCES PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH STRONG TO  
SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY WANING.  
 
BEHIND IT ALL, SOME LINGERING LL STRATUS MAY HANG OUT THROUGH THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY  
AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. THE WARM, MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH  
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE HIT-AND-MISS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
AS THE DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST  
OVER HUDSON BAY TUESDAY EVENING, WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO  
NORTHERN ONTARIO AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. BUT WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE  
FRONT FROM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUING TO LINGER AROUND THE AREA,  
CAN'T RULE OUT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF  
THE BOUNDARY WILL EXIT MORE OF THE SAME HIGH CAPE, HIGH PWAT, LOW  
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WE'VE BEEN DEALING WITH FOR A FEW DAYS NOW MEANING  
THAT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVERS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT GIVEN HOW CONVECTIVELY CHAOTIC  
THIS PATTERN IS, NOT REALLY WORTH TRYING TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC AREAS  
FOR NOW AND INSTEAD HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH  
THE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.  
 
AT THE MOMENT WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY LIKELY DRY DAY OF THE  
NEXT SEVERAL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF  
UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS 16-17 C, STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN  
THE MID 80S. BUT IT'S A SHORT-LIVED REPRIEVE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING  
THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WAA PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT  
OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MODELED. WITH PWAT AGAIN RISING TO NEARLY 2.0"  
ON THE (EVEN) WARM(ER) SIDE OF THE FRONT, WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY RAIN  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS PERHAPS  
SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. THERE COULD THEN BE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL  
CLEARING THURSDAY MIDDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM'S "COLD" FRONT COMES THROUGH. WITH  
A STRONG LLJ OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CREATING FAVORABLE SHEAR  
PROFILES, AND PLENTY OF CAPE, THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE  
MORNING WAVE CLEARING OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE  
HEATING MIDDAY, AND THAT'S FAR FROM A GUARANTEE AT THIS POINT. SO  
JUST STICK A PIN IN THURSDAY FOR NOW.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY THE FRONT THURSDAY DOESN'T ACTUALLY ACT AS A COLD  
FRONT AT ALL AS IT LINGERS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN  
SURGES BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY THEREFORE LOOKS NOT JUST HOT AND  
STICKY, BUT ALMOST CERTAINLY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. 850  
MB TEMPS CLIMB TO ABOUT 21-22 C, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOW TO PERHAPS  
EVEN MID 90S FOR HIGHS. AND WITH A FAIRLY STIFF WSW WIND, THERE  
WON'T BE ANY RELIEF ALONG THE LAKESHORES.  
 
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS  
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION, WITH YET ANOTHER  
DISTURBANCE AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS HOT AND HUMID  
PATTERN.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
KSAW'S CLEARING (AT LEAST PARTIAL) IS ON THE HORIZON AS THE SUN  
HELPS TO CLEAR OUT THE LL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE  
TERMINAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU FIELD IS  
RAPIDLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE EXITING MCV, WHICH WILL BE SEEN AT  
BOTH KIWD AND KSAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
THIS EVENING, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO ALL THREE TERMINALS  
AS A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MN RAMPS  
UP AND APPROACHES UPPER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
LOOK FOR REDUCTIONS IN VISBY CATEGORIES AS THESE CLUSTERS PRODUCE  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, IN ADDITION TO LOWERED CEILINGS.  
UPON THE PASSAGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE  
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING LL CLOUDS, WHICH COULD KEEP  
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH  
THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, S TO SW WINDS  
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REAPPEAR BY MID-  
MORNING TUESDAY.  

 
   
MARINE
 
(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MARCHING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF  
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN  
EFFECT FOR THE VERY FAR WESTERN AREA (MN AREA). THESE STORMS WILL  
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, KICKING UP WAVES, AND  
PERHAPS CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE  
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS  
EASTWARD.  
 
FOG REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH IT  
BUILDING OVERNIGHT BEHIND ANY RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH. THE FOG  
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO TOMORROW, LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  
THERE IS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG, PERHAPS DENSE, WILL  
AGAIN REEMERGE ON THURSDAY BEHIND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS  
EXPECTED.  
 
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY  
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.  

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.  
 
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LG  
LONG TERM...RJC  
AVIATION...LG  
MARINE...LG  
 
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