144
FXUS63 KMQT 011951
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
UP DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20-25%, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
- NEXT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN EARLY
THURSDAY TO LATE FRIDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS IS HIGH.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
ANOTHER CLEAR-SKY DAY UNFURLS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LEE SIDE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK. GOES-EAST BANDS 9 AND 10 SHOW
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN UP, AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVELS IN THE EAST, WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR PUSHING
SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE CWA. CORRESPONDINGLY, RH'S HAVE BEEN
PLUMMETING SINCE THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE UP, WITH
VALUES COMMONLY BETWEEN 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME SITES ARE
SEEING VALUES EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW THIS RANGE. BOLSTERED BY
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW, RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A LAKE BREEZE
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR PROGRESSING DUE SOUTH AND REACHING GWINN AT
APPROXIMATELY 1830Z. BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT, OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THAT THIS MARINE-MODIFIED AIR BRINGS SOME RELIEF TO VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS, WITH RH'S IN THE 70'S AND ABOVE. THE 15-20 MPH BREEZES
WHICH INSTIGATED THE FIRE-SPS HAVE MATERIALIZED IN THE WEST AND EAST
UP, AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT.
ALOFT AT THE MID-LEVELS, THE OMEGA BLOCK IS STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE,
WITH A CLOSED LOW SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER MONTANA, THE RIDGE CENTER
STRADDLING NORTHERN MINNESOTA, AND THE LEE TROUGH CENTER OVER NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUDGE ONLY INCREMENTALLY UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING WHEN IT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN; AFTER THIS POINT,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY WITH
HIGHER THICKNESSES COLLAPSING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THIS DECAY PROCESS, WITH DRY,
BACKING GRADIENT FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THUS, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VERY DRY AFTERNOON RH'S IN THE LOW 20'S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS PRIOR TO THE NEXT PATTERN SHIFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY; HIGHS REACH THE MID-
80S IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND LOW 80S IN THE EAST TOMORROW, AND HIGH
80S IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIMITED, HOWEVER, DUE TO LACK OF WIND. TAKE
CARE TO HYDRATE PROACTIVELY, AND CHECK BURN BANS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL
BRING ABOUT THE FINAL COLLAPSE OF THE DECAYING RIDGE FROM THE OMEGA
BLOCK AS THE MONTANA LOW PROPAGATES EASTWARD, REACHING ONTARIO BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUGGEST THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND
IT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW COINCIDES WITH A
PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT REACHING THE UP FROM THE GULF AS
SHOWN BY THE LREF AND ECWMF EFI, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL SYNOPTIC
FORCINGS AT THIS TIME. FROM A BUOYANCY STANDPOINT, HOWEVER, THE LREF
SHOWS ABOVE UP TO 70% PROBABILITY OF 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE ENTERING THE
WESTERN UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND 10-20% PROBABILITY OF 1000
J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING. BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, LREF SHOWS 30-40% CHANCE OF 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION GREATER
THAN 0.1", WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN UP. SO FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CHANCES EXIST OF A WETTING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS MINIMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
SKC AND P6SM CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST CONTINUE AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT RESUMING AT SAW
EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE MAY INCREASE WINDS AND MAKE
THEM VARIABLE DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE LAKE BREEZE
WOULD ARRIVE AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FUNNEL INTO THE WESTERN
ARM TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RE
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...THOMPSON
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