144  
FXUS63 KMQT 190544  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
144 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN QUIET AND WARMER ON  
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS BUT MAIN SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING  
BY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE SHORTWAVE, EHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR, HELPED TO  
DEVELOP A BAND OF SNOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.  
DECENT RADAR ECHOES WITH THIS SNOW BAND, BUT WEBCAMS FROM ALGER  
COUNTY SHOWED LITTLE VSBY REDUCTION AS IT MOVED ONSHORE. BAND OF  
SNOW HAS NOW SETTLED TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WHILE CU FIELD AND  
MAYBE SOME FLURRIES HAVE EXPANDED OVER REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  
EXPECT THE CU AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH BY EARLY  
EVENING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.  
 
THICK MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE EVENING  
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER STRONG COOLING, SO WENT WITH TEMPS  
MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S, COOLEST INLAND. ON TUESDAY, SW  
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MID  
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES  
MAY SHOW QUITE A GRADIENT ON TUESDAY BASED ON CLOUDS AND ALSO WHERE  
WINDS ARE COMING OFF LK MICHIGAN. MIXING UP TO H85 WITH SUNSHINE  
COULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID, MAYBE UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.  
MEANWHILE, FLOW OFF CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN (WHERE SOME ICE COVER IS  
STILL PRESENT) ALONG WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND LONGER IN THE DAY  
MAY KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID/UPPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
WESTERN CANADA RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW THROUGH THE GREAT  
LAKES. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD  
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING  
PCPN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN SUPPORTED BY MODERATE 700-300 QVECTOR  
CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET.  
MOST OF THE PCPN, BETWEEN 06Z-18Z, IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW  
BEFORE ENOUGH DAYTIME WARMING PUSHES TEMPS INTO UPPER 30S DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH.  
 
THURSDAY, THE NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH MAINLY  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS  
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS  
THAN ANY AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
FRIDAY-SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A SFC RIDGE DOMINATES THE  
REGION. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER  
30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND THE  
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY.  
 
MONDAY, MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST AS THE FAVORED ECMWF AND GFS-FV3  
WITH A STRONGER/SLOWER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA KEEP DRY WEATHER  
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM  
NORTHERN ONTARIO. LOWER END POPS REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY AS LESS  
AMPFLIFED GFS/GEFS ALLOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PCPN  
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY AT ALL SITES  
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER  
TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING AT ALL SITES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA.  

 
   
MARINE
 
(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
OVERALL, EXPECT WINDS 25 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK.  

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLA  
LONG TERM...JLB  
AVIATION...07/VOSS  
MARINE...JLA  
 
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