064
FXUS63 KMQT 171123
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
SHORT TERM
(THIS MORNING AND TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
GOES 16 MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT PAINTS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PICTURE
ACROSS THE EAST, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WEST. TEMPS SO FAR HAVE LARGELY FALLEN INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION. TO OUR NORTH, A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
HAS INCHED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE REGION. IT'S CURRENTLY SUPPORTING
SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE ARROWHEAD.
TODAY, EMBEDDED IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH WILL INCH A LITTLE CLOSER. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL WORK TO LIMIT PRECIP PROGRESSION INTO OUR REGION, BUT DINURALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY UPSTREAM IN MN PROGRESSING INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR, AS WELL AS INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY AFTERNOON. THERE'S VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK
WITH, SO IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO POP UP, I DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING TO
REMAIN ORGANIZED FOR VERY LONG. AT THE VERY LEAST, SOME BRIEF
MODERATE DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF BROAD DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. THE PATTERN WILL BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES FROM
DISTURBANCES DIPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
TONIGHT, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO PERSIST AS A
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT,
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A CUT OFF LOW DROPS IN NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SYSTEM DUE TO LIMITED DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY. BUT, DIURNAL
HEATING COULD HELP TO FUEL SOME DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN AXIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER, WHICH
COULD ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE 3 DAY PERIOD.
FURTHER OUT, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
BY THEN. SO, EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATION AT THAT
POINT. MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER UNTIL IT
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY TREND ABOVE NORMAL.
WEAK WAA AHEAD OF BOTH DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 50S WITH UPPER 50S/LOW 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE IN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE KIWD
AREA AND UPSTREAM IN MN. MORNING RAIN SHOWERS AT KIWD ARE EXPECTED
TO DISAPPATE SOON, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS. BY
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND IMPACT MAINLY THE KIWD TERMINAL, BUT COULD BE AS FAR
NORTH AS KCMX. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WANE.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT KSAW WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
DENSE FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER MIDWEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...TDUD
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