184
FXUS63 KMQT 170653
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
253 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE THREAT FOR FLOODING CONTINUES DUE TO SNOWMELT. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN UP
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- SOUTHERLY GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P.; WHILE THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW
(LESS THAN 5%), A SPIN-UP TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- BECOMING MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL SLOW SNOWMELT.
- WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF THE LAKE SAVE FOR THE FAR WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS AN AREA OF MARINE FOG ALONG GREEN
BAY THAT IS BRINGING LOCALLY DENSE FOR ALONG THE SHORELINE FROM
ESCANABA THROUGH RAPID RIVER (AS EVIDENCED BY WEBCAM IMAGERY). WHILE
THIS ISN'T QUITE NECESSITATING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY YET FOR DELTA
COUNTY, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS MARINE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS GREEN BAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS; THE SHORELINE ALONG MENOMINEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTY MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO DEPENDING ON HOW GREAT THE
EXPANSION IS OF THE MARINE FOG. OTHERWISE, HAVING COOLED FROM THE
WARM, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES WE SAW YESTERDAY, WE MAY SEE A PATCH
OR TWO OF FOG FORM IN THE LOW-LYING COLD SPOTS AS SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH
WIDESPREAD FOG NOT BEING EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS, NO FOG ADVISORY (SAVE FOR MAYBE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND
GREEN BAY) IS EXPECTED FOR THE U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL,
EXPECT TO SEE THE U.P. COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S THIS MORNING, WITH
THE FAR WEST POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE LOWER 50S AS THEY'VE LOST
ALL OF THEIR SNOWPACK AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
AFTER DAWN THIS MORNING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY WARM AIR FROM THE GULF IS
PULLED INTO THE REGION. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING IN TO THE AREA TODAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN U.P.; AS FOR THE EAST HALF,
THINKING THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY HELP TO PUSH THE MARINE
LAYER FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE U.P., THUS
LIMITING TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S AND 60S. WHILE A ROBUST 50-60MPH
LLJ AT 850MB LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN
INVERSION SETTING UP SHOP AT 925MB EXPECT THE MIXING INTO THE LLJ TO
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THUS, WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO POTENTIALLY EVEN 40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING (UP TO
AROUND A 100% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE REFS AND HREF, BUT ONLY UP TO
A 40% CHANCE IN THE NBM), EXPECT THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH-WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AS
OF RIGHT NOW, THERE IS NO PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH-WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONFIDENCE/CHANCES
FOR MAINTAINING 45+ MPH WIND GUSTS THROUGH TODAY ARE TOO LOW.
EXPECT THE STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE U.P. BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR WEST. WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT
COMING IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THIS
MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION MAY
BE MORE SFC BASED. INDEED, IF THE CONVECTION IS MORE SFC-BASED OVER
THE WEST HALF (AND THE TREND SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS), THEN ALL OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS COULD BE ON THE TABLE: SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
AS WELL AS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A SPIN-UP TORNADO. THAT BEING SAID,
THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DO LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF US IN
WISCONSIN AND FURTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE, WHILE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P., THE CHANCES OF HAVING HAIL OF ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER OR GREATER AND FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER IS
AROUND 5-10%, AND THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO IS AROUND 5% OR LESS. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, SOME DOWNPOURS OF RAIN COULD BRING A
QUICK QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL TO AREAS
WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS; WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS THAT SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH THE
LATEST HREF SHOWING UP TO A 40% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE,
WHILE IT WON'T BE AS IMPACTFUL AS THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED THIS
PAST MONDAY, THE RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE AREAS WITH REMAINING
SNOWPACK MELTING TODAY COULD BRING RIVER RISES AND CREATE/ENHANCE
PONDING IN THE LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EAST THIS EVENING; WITH THE FAR WEST BEING SNOWPACK-FREE FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW (LESS THAN
5%). HOWEVER, WITH THE SOILS REMAINING SATURATED AND SEVERAL INCHES
OF SWE LEFT IN PORTIONS OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST (MOST OF THE SNOWPACK LEFT IS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW), THE FLOODING THREAT IS A LITTLE HIGHER
(5% OR GREATER).
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WE MAY SEE A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT THE END OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY DROP. HOWEVER, WITH THE MOISTURE BEING RELEGATED TO THE
LOWER-LEVELS AS THE LAST OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH,
THINKING ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL TONIGHT TO BRING NO
MORE THAN A TRACE OF ICE/SNOW AT MOST TO THE AREA. AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DELTA-TS
INCREASING INTO THE MID-TEENS TO POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WIND SNOW BELTS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST UP TO A DUSTING IF THE LAKE EFFECT OCCURS;
IF THE DRY AIR FROM THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WINS-OUT, THEN EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW FLURRIES. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS POINT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND; EXPECT IT
TO FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS ACROSS THE
AREA STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOW BELTS. THAT BEING SAID, THE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOW BELTS AND THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER COULD GET INTO THE
40S THANKS TO SOME SUNSHINE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THANKFULLY, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD LOOK TO DECREASE FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE: 1) POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AT CMX/SAW, 2) LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS
MORNING, 3) SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KT TODAY, AND 4)
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
FOG/LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL AT CMX/SAW: LESS CERTAIN THAN PREVIOUS
MORNINGS, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT YESTERDAY BETTER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE. REMOVED FOG MENTION FROM CMX ALTHOUGH STILL
CONSIDER AROUND A 30% CHANCE OF IFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT. BUMPED BACK
THE TIMING OF THE TEMPO FOR LIFR FOG AT SAW TO 06-08Z, WITH
PREVAILING IFR VSBY AND LIFR CIGS THEREAFTER.
LLWS AND GUSTY WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING LLWS
CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS FOR A TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS
TO THE SURFACE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
BE NEAR 25-30 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, STRONGEST AT IWD.
TS POTENTIAL: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN UP MAINLY AFTER 21Z. A
STRONGER STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT IWD. TS POTENTIAL AT CMX/SAW IS LESS THAN 30% SO WAS
NOT MENTIONED IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT 23-04Z AT
CMX AND 01-06Z AT SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
AS A ROBUST COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF IT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL LAKE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FEW OF THE STRONG
WINDS FROM A LLJ AT 850MB REACHES THE SFC. BECAUSE OF THIS, A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL LAKE FROM 3 PM EDT TO
AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN;
WHILE THE CHANCE IS LOW DUE TO THE COLD WATERS HAMPERING THE SFC-
BASED CONVECTION, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS AS WELL AS WATERSPOUTS. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING,
EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH, EVENTUALLY GOING AWAY
LATE TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, SOME ERRATIC GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT TO THE SFC OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE REFS
AND NBM BRING A 50 TO AROUND A 100% CHANCE OF LOW-END GALES TO THE
LAKE FROM BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE, A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN LAKE 2 AM EDT
TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY; IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE KATABATIC WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE CHANCES FOR GALES ARE HIGHER OVER THERE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO PROGRESSIVELY DIE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY;
EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE CALMER WATERS ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY MONDAY, A DRY COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO HAS OVER A 40% CHANCE TO BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES UP TO 34 KNOTS OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN
OPEN LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWED SNOWPACK REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE U.P. WERE SEVERAL INCHES TO OVER A FOOT OF SWE REMAINED,
GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AS THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE GULF ADVECTS OVER THE U.P. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY 0.25-0.75 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS UP TO A
40% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE MELT OF ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK.
WATERS REMAIN HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN U.P. WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTED TO FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND SOME RIVERS.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN U.P. DUE TO
CONTINUED SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, EXPECT THE FLOOD RISK TO DECREASE. THEREFORE, EXPECT THE FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003>007-
010>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ241>250-263>266.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...TAP
HYDROLOGY...NL/TAP
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