433  
FXUS63 KMQT 221108  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
708 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FINISH THIS WEEK. WARMING  
UP THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 
- FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST MULTIPLE NIGHTS THIS  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025  
 
REMNANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS KEEPING US DRY EARLY THIS MORNING  
AS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO CYCLES WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER  
US THE REST OF TODAY. WHILE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WON'T AFFECT OUR  
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TOO TERRIBLY, WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES  
TODAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE  
LOW IS PROBABLY GOING TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES  
OVERHEAD. INDEED, EXPECT AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE NORTH  
CENTRAL TO ONLY GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY. WHILE THE WRAP  
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA  
TODAY (AND EVENTUALLY WIN TONIGHT), EXPECT IT TO BRING LOW-LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE SFC; WINDS COULD GUST  
TO AS HIGH AS 25 TO POTENTIALLY EVEN 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOWERS MOVE  
OVER THE NORTH WIND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW, NORTH CENTRAL,  
AND EAST; WE COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY SEE A MIX OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE  
HURON MOUNTAIN RANGE INTO THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT LOWS  
TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE  
COLDEST SPOTS, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THE MOISTURE  
WILL HELP PREVENT FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, THE  
EXCEPTION SEEMS TO BE IN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED; AN ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED FOR  
GOGEBIC COUNTY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY, SAVE FOR TEMPERATURES  
BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CEASES AND  
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER BUT  
WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE PARENT LOW PHASES EASTWARDS AWAY FROM OUR  
AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, EXPECT THE  
CLOUD COVER TO PROGRESSIVELY DWINDLE ACROSS THE U.P.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025  
 
FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT?...IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN  
THURSDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR OVERHEAD (850MB TEMPS  
BELOW ZERO)...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING INTO THE 50S FOR SOME  
AREAS. THINK THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT,  
PERHAPS A TOUCH COLDER THAN TONIGHT...DESPITE CLOUD COVER BEING IN  
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS TIME. THINK TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY  
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...AND COULD ACTUALLY END UP A TOUCH COOLER  
(FREEZE POTENTIAL?) IF WE END UP A LITTLE LESS DREARY THAN CURRENT  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.  
 
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR MASS SWINGING IN  
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO GENERATING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY GOING INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES GOING RIGHT ON INTO THE END  
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE THURSDAY NIGHT COULD END UP WITH SOME OF  
THE WHITE STUFF, SINCE, AGAIN, IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. MOISTURE MAY  
NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH WELL INTO THE DGZ, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES EXIST AS WELL AS FLAKE-AGE, PARTICULARLY IN  
THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES WHERE  
NORTH FLOW SHOULD HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.  
 
ADDITIONAL FROST CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...COLD AIR MASS  
STILL HANGING OVER THE AREA COULD CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS  
NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME QUESTION AS  
TO HOW CLOUDY/UNSETTLED IT WILL END UP BEING THIS WEEKEND...WITH A  
FEW BITS OF PV ZIPPING THROUGH THAT COULD KEEP SHOWERS/CLOUDS IN THE  
FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER  
(WHICH COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE COOLER).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON  
OVER CMX & SAW AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT OVER THESE  
TERMINALS AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER  
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVES OVER US; AS FOR IWD, IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR  
UNTIL MVFR CLOUD COVER MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE FROM THE  
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOWERS TO CMX  
AND SAW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THAT, EXPECT BREEZY  
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS, SAVE FOR LIGHTER/CALMER WINDS  
BY IWD (IN COMPARISON) TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025  
 
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FOR MOST TONIGHT, TURNING MORE  
NORTHERLY WITH TIME THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO  
25KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESP THE MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS  
REGION...AND COULD CERTAINLY PICK UP AGAIN A TAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST GOING INTO FRIDAY. WAVES EXPECTED TO RUN  
NEAR 3-5 FEET.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR  
MIZ002-004-009-010-084.  
 
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005-006.  
 
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TAP  
LONG TERM...APX  
AVIATION...TAP  
MARINE...APX  
 
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