279  
FXUS63 KMQT 190006  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
706 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019  
   
..SNOW SHOWERS WITH POOR VISIBILITY RAMP UP ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
 
 
COLD FRONT BRINGING IN THE THE ARCTIC AIR HAS DROPPED ACROSS UPPER  
MICHIGAN TODAY. TEMPS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO  
OVER THE WEST HALF BUT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR HAS  
KEPT TEMPS OVER EAST HALF IN THE TEENS. LAKE SUPERIOR CERTAINLY HAS  
MODIFIED THE INCOMING AIRMASS AS TEMPS OVER NORTHERN MN AND OVER  
ONTARIO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ARE STILL WELL BELOW ZERO THIS AFTN.  
WAS A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVED  
THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN THE MAIN  
STORY. THUS FAR DESPITE H85 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -22C, SHEAR IN THE  
LAKE EFFECT CONVECTIVE LAYER HAS LED TO DISORGANIZED LES WITH VERY  
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIR AND SMALLER  
SNOWFLAKE SIZE, SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED VSBY TO A HALF MILE OR  
LESS AT TIMES. AWAY FROM LK SUPERIOR ARE SEEING PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS  
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING BANDED SYNOPTIC SNOW TO SOUTHERN  
MN AND SOUTHERN WI. NO BIG IMPACTS FROM THAT SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD  
STAY TO OUR SOUTH INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SASKATCHEWAN  
AND MANITOBA TO NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS RESULTING IN NW FLOW  
LES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  
 
AS WE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, RIDGE SO CLOSE BY WILL RESULT IN LAND  
BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF NORTHWEST WI AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND  
ALSO OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS TEMPS THERE OVERNIGHT DROP WELL  
BELOW ZERO. HIGH RES MODELS ARE FULLY PICKED UP ON THESE LAND  
BREEZES AND INDICATE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST  
OFFSHORE OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (LITTLE GIRLS PT, PORCUPINE MTS  
AND TOWARD FREDA) AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR VCNTY OF EASTERN  
MARQUETTE TO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY (BIG BAY/MARQUETTE AS FAR EAST  
AS AU TRAIN). INTERESTING THAT IF HRRR/RAP AND WRF-ARW ARE  
CORRECT, MAIN FOCUS FOR LES BAND WILL IMPACT MAINLY MARQUETTE  
COUNTY FROM BIG BAY TO HARVEY WHILE LAND BREEZE PRETTY MUCH  
CLEARS OUT ALGER COUNTY. BASED ON EXPECTED INVERSION HEIGHTS OF  
3-6KFT AND DELTA T/S OVER 20C AND VARIOUS MODEL QPFS, EXPECT  
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT  
IN THESE STRONGER CONVERGENCE BANDS. ON SAT, AS HIGH CENTERS MORE  
OVER MANITOBA AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH, POSSIBLY LAKE INDUCED,  
FORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR, INCREASING N-NNW WINDS WILL  
BRING ALL THESE CONVERGENCE ZONES MORE ONSHORE, SO OUT WEST MORE  
TOWARD IRONWOOD, ONTONAGON AND BERGLAND AND FOR ALGER COUNTY MORE  
INTO MUNISING AND SHINGLETON. SNOW COULD FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY  
AT TIMES, BUT FOR MOST PART, LOOKING AT 2- 4"/3-5" TYPE AMOUNTS.  
LOW VSBY WILL BE PERHAPS THE BIGGER FACTOR AS WHERE THE SNOW  
SHOWERS PERSIST, VSBY SHOULD EASILY DROP TO 1/2SM WITH ANY  
STRONGER WINDS BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM OR EVEN LESS. BASED ON  
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND MORE SO THE LOW VSBY, WENT WITH WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES LATER THIS  
EVENING AND BASED ON COORDINATION WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER, RAN  
THAT ADVY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE TOO  
MUCH IF NOT EVEN GET BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OUT  
WEST, SINCE MOST SNOW DOES NOT GET INTO THOSE AREAS UNTIL SAT  
DAYTIME, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVY, BUT WILL PUT SPS OUT.  
 
AWAY FROM LES OFF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD BE A CHILLY DAY WITH PARTIAL  
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SINCE WINDS WILL  
OVERALL BE LIGHT UNDER 10 MPH, NO REAL WIND CHILL ISSUES ARE  
EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019  
 
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT, ONGOING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE  
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN WIND SNOW BELT REGIONS, BECOMING MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS  
THAT WENT INTO THE ISSUANCE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LES  
THAT CONTINUES INTO THIS TIME FRAME; FOR THAT DISCUSSION, SEE  
ABOVE. SPECIFIC TO SATURDAY NIGHT, LES WILL GET QUITE A BOOST FROM  
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH ALONG WITH A VORT MAX. LES  
BANDS INITIALLY FEEDING INTO ALGER COUNTY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL  
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY, LOOKING TO DROP AT LEAST  
3" TO 5" ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WITH SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT  
ASSISTING IN THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGHER SNOW TOTALS MAY END UP  
COMING TO FRUITION, ESPECIALLY IF SNOW RATIOS TICK UPWARD, THANKS  
TO ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.  
BOTTOM LINE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THESE TWO  
COUNTIES: EXPECT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS A REDUCTION IN  
VISBYS OCCURS DUE TO SMALLER YET ABUNDANT FLAKES. ELSEWHERE, LES  
IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS ALL ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR,  
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN U.P. INTO THE KEWEENAW, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS  
THERE OVERALL LOOK LESS THAN FURTHER EAST. LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH-  
CENTRAL U.P. SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SNOW-FREE, OTHER THAN SOME  
PASSING FLURRIES AND/OR ROGUE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO  
TRACK FURTHER INLAND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND WINDS  
TAPER OFF LATER SUNDAY, LES ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT.  
 
WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN ON MONDAY AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MAKES  
AN APPEARANCE. HOWEVER, AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THROUGH  
THE DAKOTAS/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY EARLY TUESDAY LOOKS TO  
TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS, ACCORDING TO THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS, AS  
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW  
IS THEN DEPICTED TO END UP PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES REGION, YIELDING A MARKED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.  
WITH A DEFINITIVELY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE, WIDESPREAD  
SNOW LOOKS LIKELY REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS PHASING  
OCCURS, ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS POINT TO NAIL  
DOWN ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS. AS THIS MERGED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
CONTINUES ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD, LES SHOULD TAKE OVER ONCE AGAIN  
ON ITS BACKSIDE UNDER NW FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE  
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, AN ACTIVE  
PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE BROAD AGREEMENTS  
IN WAVE AFTER WAVE MARCHING THROUGH.  
 
ATTENTION SHOULD ALSO BE PAID TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES MUCH MORE  
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE UPPER MICHIGAN  
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH BITTERLY COLD LOWS EXPECTED SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE  
DIGITS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH NEGATIVE TEENS LIKELY  
IN THE INTERIOR, AND LAKESHORE SPOTS HANGING OUT JUST ABOVE ZERO  
DEGREES TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR  
(ABOVE) TAKING A SWIPE AT THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT, EVEN COLDER TEMPS  
WILL BLANKET THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE TEENS IN THE  
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF LOWS DROP OFF EVEN MORE  
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELTS. DESPITE  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED, WIND CHILLS COULD STILL EASILY  
DROP CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA; REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT  
DOES, ANYONE PLANNING ON BEING OUTDOORS DURING THIS TIME FRAME  
SHOULD DO ALL THEY CAN TO STAY WARM. SINGLE DIGIT TO TEEN HIGHS ON  
SUNDAY WILL BOUNCE BACK UP QUICKLY TO UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN THOUGH THE MORNING INITIALLY STARTS OUT SO  
COLD. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, PLAN ON TEMPS OVERALL  
REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE JANUARY.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019  
 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AT IWD AND  
CMX BEFORE LAND BREEZES PUSH THE SNOW SHOWERS MORE OVER LAKE  
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS INCREASING WILL ALLOW LAKE  
EFFECT TO RETURN TO BOTH OF THESE TERMINALS SATURDAY. AT SAW, LES  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT ALL SITES WHEN  
LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBY  
WITH ONLY OCNL IFR VSBY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019  
 
OCCASIONAL WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK BUT NO  
WIDESPREAD GALES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY  
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO MONDAY.  

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-006.  
 
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR  
LSZ249>251-266-267.  
 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY  
FOR LSZ162-240>248-263>265.  
 
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLA  
LONG TERM...LG  
AVIATION...JLB  
MARINE...JLA  
 
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