043
FXUS63 KMQT 060607
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
207 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN U.P. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS.
- WARMER TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EAST CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
- COOLER/MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL TRAVERSING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S BEING SEEN AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE RAIN (SEE THE 1Z OBS FOR AN
EXAMPLE). WHILE THE RAIN SHOWERS DO LOOK TO FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
EASTERN U.P. LATER THIS MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM
NORTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY COULD START UP LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BACK OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS EARLY AS THIS
EVENING AND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE CAA BEHIND THIS LOW
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, WITH AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF CAA COMING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WE CAN EXPECT
THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER HERE AND THERE WITHIN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AS THERE IS A
LITTLE BIT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WORK WITH. THAT BEING
SAID, GIVEN THAT WE WILL BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW TODAY (AS ALREADY BEING EVIDENCED OVER THE FAR
WEST IN THE 1Z OBS) AND CAN EXPECT STRONG ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID 60S TO EVEN THE LOWER 70S. IN ADDITION,
THE LOW WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TO THE AREA
TODAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORELINES
OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE EAST. ONCE THE CAA STARTS, EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO IMPACT THE U.P. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY; EXPECT
GENERALLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ON BOTH OF THOSE DAYS, ALTHOUGH
THE WINDS ON THURSDAY DO LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER 20 MPH.
WHILE WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL (I.E.
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S) FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE U.P. BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A CLIPPER LIFTS OFF THE ROCKIES AND SPLITS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL SET US UP UNDER A SOUTHERN PLAINS
AIRMASS, ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH UP WELL INTO THE
70S ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, WILL CARRY TEMPOS AT BOTH IWD AND SAW EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION, WINDSHIFTS AND LLWS THREATS ARE THE
OTHER MAIN IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
ENHANCE LLWS, WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY TUE 10Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
LAKE SUPERIOR: SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH GALES TO 35 KTS BEING SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
LAKE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY, EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN TO
20 KTS OR SO FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING BACK UP TO
20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING ONCE CAA STARTS BACK UP ACROSS THE
LAKE. EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SOME LIGHTNING
BEING POSSIBLE AT TIMES GIVEN THE SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, NO GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK; THE REFS
ONLY HAS UP TO A 30% CHANCE FOR SEEING A NORTHWEST GALE OVER 35 KTS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO SLACKEN TO 20 KTS OR LESS,
STAYING THAT WAY UNTIL ROBUST WAA BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KTS BACK ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY.
NORTHERN GREEN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN: WINDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING TO 30 KTS TO
GALES OF 35 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO. EXPECT THE WINDS TO WEAKEN TO 15 KTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT
AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. AS CAA WORKS DOWN FROM CANADA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING IN LATE THIS WEEK
BRINGS THE WINDS BACK DOWN TO 15 KTS OR LESS AGAIN BY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
STRONG WAA BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS BACK BY SATURDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ248>250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
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