390
FXUS63 KMQT 110527
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL (20-50%
CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE COOLING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS, WHILE THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS UNDER LARGELY ZONAL
FLOW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TAKE OVER THIS EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORELINE,
DIPPING INTO THE LOW 50S INLAND.
BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS ILL-DEFINED,
BUT A WEAK ZONALLY-ORENTED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE ON TUESDAY, ROUGHLY BISECTING THE UP AND POSSIBLY REINFORCED
BY THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK POSITIVE THETA-
E ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. MODELS
DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT, RANGING
FROM NEAR ZERO ON THE HRRR TO NEAR 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM3KM. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE TIED TO THE DEGREE OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE, AS
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST. ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH,
AS PER THE 12Z HREF, SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY STRONGER STORMS LOW, DESPITE
AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT. CAMS DIFFER IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AS WELL, AND OVERALL HAVE TRENDED LOWER LIKELY DUE TO THE
WEAK FORCING AND QUESTIONABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS KEEPS
COVERAGE GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE, HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO WEDNESDAY, AND QUESTIONS ABOUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY. THIS WILL HINGE UPON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE AND AT UPPER LEVELS.
POPS RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO OVER THE WEST TO NEAR 50% OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT WITH A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING THOSE DAYS DRY
AS RIDGING BUILDS UPSTREAM, PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN AN IDEAL
LOCATION FOR SUBSIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT UPPER MICHIGAN TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
IN A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL UP. INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
SHRA AT KSAW AFTER 18Z TUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE
MICHIGAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (20%
CHANCE AT ANY GIVEN TIME).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LH/THOMPSON
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...THOMPSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page