072  
FXUS63 KMQT 282103  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
403 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
 
QUICK-MOVING WINTER STORM IS NOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. SURFACE  
OBS SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL POINTING TO THE  
SURFACE LOW BEING CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY.  
CORRESPONDINGLY, RADAR SHOWS THE DRYSLOT DOING ITS DIRTY WORK  
CAUSING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO ERODE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P.  
TOTALS WILL END UP BEING MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE WEST HALF WHERE  
THE BETTER FGEN BANDING SET UP THIS MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP  
SHIELD WILL BE OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 00Z AND OUT OF THE CWA  
ENTIRELY BY AROUND 02Z. BECAUSE SNOW IS STILL ONGOING EVEN IN THE  
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES, LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THEY  
WERE. HOWEVER, EVENING SHIFT CAN PROBABLY CANCEL THE SOUTHERN TIER  
COUNTIES IN ABOUT AN HOUR.  
 
TONIGHT, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, A  
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  
THIS WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN  
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR. ANY WET OR SLUSHY SURFACES WILL FLASH-FREEZE  
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ICY SPOTS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL  
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION, TIGHTENING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT AND 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7 MB ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF  
THE DEEPENING/DEPARTING LOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. THESE GUSTY  
WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN  
U.P. WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS  
SHOW THE PBL REMAINING MIXED TO AROUND 2-3 KFT. WENT WITH THE HRRR  
OVER THERE WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGHEST IN GUSTS, SHOWING 30-35 MPH  
GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WIND WILL LEAD TO WAVES BUILDING TO AS  
HIGH AS 14 FEET ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR, SO HAVE ISSUED A  
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALGER & LUCE COUNTIES. WINDS, AND THUS  
WAVES, WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RAMPING  
BACK UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH. WAVES SHOULD  
FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.  
 
ONCE THIS COLD AIR SETTLES IN, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP  
IN THE NW WIND LES BELTS, MAINLY EAST HALF. THE QUESTION FOR THE  
WEST HALF WILL BE HOW MUCH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS COVERED IN  
ICE AND HOW WELL THE CAMS ARE RESOLVING IT. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE  
GLERL ICE COVER ANALYSIS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH ICE COVER TO  
INHIBIT MOST LES. HOWEVER, IT COULD SHIFT AROUND, AND THE ANALYSIS  
COULD BE OFF. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WEST HALF SNOW BELTS ARE  
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR JUST A THIN SATURATED LAYER/CLOUD DECK.  
NONETHELESS, MANUALLY INCREASED POPS TO GET AT LEAST CHANCE SNOW  
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, BETWEEN THE LACK OF OPEN WATER AND  
HEIGHTS RISING/THE COLUMN DRYING OUT, DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE  
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS WEST. EAST HALF, WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER AND A LONGER  
FETCH, SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT LES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AMOUNTING  
TO GENERALLY 1-3". SOME CAMS HINT AT A MORE DOMINANT BAND CLIPPING  
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LUCE COUNTY WHICH COULD PRODUCE UP TO 5" BUT  
MOST OF THE HEAVY SNOW WITH THIS BAND, IF IT DEVELOPS, WILL FALL  
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -22 TO -24 C MIDDAY,  
EVEN MIXING OUT TO 1 KM AGL ONLY GIVES HIGHS AROUND 12-14 F MOST  
AREAS. SO MARCH WILL INDEED COME IN LIKE A LION THIS YEAR.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
 
LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BUSY BEGINNING OF THE WEEK  
FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER AND DRY MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK. INITIALLY, WITH  
THE OUTGOING MONDAY SHORTWAVE AND RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OVER THE  
REGION, CLEAR SKIES, RECENT SNOWFALL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL HELP  
SEND MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO FOR THE INTERIOR  
REGIONS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE BY THE LAKESHORES.  
 
THE CULPRITS FOR THE BUSIER TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE AFOREMENTIONED  
RIDGE AXIS TIED TO A WEAKENING 1031MB HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO. BEING  
CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SYSTEMS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WITH A STOUT LLJ WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.  
WINDS AT 850MB WITHIN THIS JET LOOK TO BE NEAR 60KTS. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD MIX UP TO AROUND 900-875MB, WHICH COULD  
BRING WIDESPREAD 25-30 MPH WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SOME AREAS,  
PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE  
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH DURING THE DAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO  
RAISES CONCERNS FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE  
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORES. THIS REGIME WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WAA  
INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE TEMPS INTO THE MID-  
UPPER 30S BY AFTERNOON. SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTH COULD  
EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 40S. BY THE EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN  
SETTLING DOWN AS THE LOW OVER ONTARIO SKATES SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH  
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE LOSE THE DINURAL MIXING. EXPECT LOWS  
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGH  
TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.  
 
AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS RIDGING  
SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE  
WEEKEND, AND DEEP TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER  
WESTERN GREENLAND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INITIALLY PUT UPPER  
MICHIGAN IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL DEVELOP INTO NW  
FLOW MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,  
VARIOUS HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO DIP SOUTH AND KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY  
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL LIGHT DRIZZLY OR FLURRIES  
DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW  
GENERALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN SOME FORM WITH A FEW COLD PUNCHES AT  
850MB BEING POSSIBLE, SLIGHTLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  
HIGHS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO LARGELY BE IN  
THE 30S WITH SOME HIGH 20S POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN  
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR WEST ARE GENERALLY  
EXPECTED, WITH LOW 20S BY THE LAKESHORES.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
 
SNOW STORM HAS ARRIVED AT IWD AND CMX. EXPECT VIS ALTERNATING  
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A BAND OF HEAVY  
SNOW MOVES ACROSS THOSE TERMINALS. IT'S A QUICK-MOVING STORM THOUGH,  
SO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS  
EVEN A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 00Z. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS  
AND SOME LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN KEEP  
THOSE TWO SITES MVFR FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
AT SAW THINGS ARE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN  
STAYING WEST OF THE TERMINAL SO FAR, AND LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN  
CONTINUING TO NUDGE THE PRECIP SHIELD WEST. REGARDLESS, FOG REMAINS  
PRESENT WITH VIS BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO FILL  
IN WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR AND BE HEAVY FOR A FEW HOURS. LIKE AT IWD  
AND CMX, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  

 
   
MARINE
 
(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
 
AS TODAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LAKE, EXPECT  
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. IN THE EAST GALES TO 40KT  
LOOK POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY AS THIS  
LOW LIFTS, INCREASING CAA WILL SURGE COLD AIR BACK INTO THE AREA,  
PROMPTING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS LAKE-WIDE TONIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW. BOTH GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN AFFECT  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  
 
TUESDAY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO  
AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN  
WITH WIDESPREAD 30KTS TO LOW END GALES DURING THE DAY AS A STOUT LLJ  
MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER  
THE LOW TO THE NORTH SKATES AWAY, EXPECT CALM WINDS BELOW 20KTS TO  
SETTLE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.  

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING  
FOR MIZ001>006-009>011-084.  
 
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST  
MONDAY FOR MIZ006-007.  
 
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST  
TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>251-264>267.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ243>248-264-265.  
 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY  
FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/  
MONDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.  
 
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RJC  
LONG TERM...JP  
AVIATION...RJC  
MARINE...JP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MI Page Main Text Page