064  
FXUS63 KMQT 171123  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
723 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS MORNING AND TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
GOES 16 MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT PAINTS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PICTURE  
ACROSS THE EAST, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND WEST. TEMPS SO FAR HAVE LARGELY FALLEN INTO THE 50S  
ACROSS THE REGION. TO OUR NORTH, A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE  
LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS  
HAS INCHED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE REGION. IT'S CURRENTLY SUPPORTING  
SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE ARROWHEAD.  
 
TODAY, EMBEDDED IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE SHORTWAVE TO  
OUR NORTH WILL INCH A LITTLE CLOSER. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE  
WILL WORK TO LIMIT PRECIP PROGRESSION INTO OUR REGION, BUT DINURALLY  
DRIVEN INSTABILITY UPSTREAM IN MN PROGRESSING INTO THE FAR WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR, AS WELL AS INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE INTERIOR WEST MAY SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A  
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY AFTERNOON. THERE'S VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK  
WITH, SO IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO POP UP, I DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING TO  
REMAIN ORGANIZED FOR VERY LONG. AT THE VERY LEAST, SOME BRIEF  
MODERATE DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST  
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF BROAD DOWNSTREAM  
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL U.S. THE PATTERN WILL BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES FROM  
DISTURBANCES DIPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  
 
TONIGHT, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO PERSIST AS A  
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT,  
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY AS A CUT OFF LOW DROPS IN NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN AND TRACKS  
THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE  
SYSTEM DUE TO LIMITED DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY. BUT, DIURNAL  
HEATING COULD HELP TO FUEL SOME DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST  
RAIN AXIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL  
PORTIONS OF THE UP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER, WHICH  
COULD ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE 3 DAY PERIOD.  
 
FURTHER OUT, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO  
SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED  
BY THEN. SO, EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATION AT THAT  
POINT. MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER UNTIL IT  
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY TREND ABOVE NORMAL.  
WEAK WAA AHEAD OF BOTH DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE  
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN  
THE 50S WITH UPPER 50S/LOW 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORE.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SLOW  
MOVING DISTURBANCE IN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE KIWD  
AREA AND UPSTREAM IN MN. MORNING RAIN SHOWERS AT KIWD ARE EXPECTED  
TO DISAPPATE SOON, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS. BY  
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
REDEVELOP AND IMPACT MAINLY THE KIWD TERMINAL, BUT COULD BE AS FAR  
NORTH AS KCMX. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WANE.  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT KSAW WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.  

 
   
MARINE
 
(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
DENSE FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE  
LOWER MIDWEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JTP  
LONG TERM...TDUD  
AVIATION...JTP  
MARINE...TDUD  
 
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