860
FXUS63 KMQT 151724
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TURN WARM AGAIN TODAY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO
NEAR/BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY; THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MOST OF THE U.P. IN A SLIGHT (CATEGORY 2) RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HEADED THIS WAY, WITH MOST CAMS SHOWING THE
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WESTERN U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO TRUDGE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL APPEARING TO
REACH THE SFC AT THIS TIME. CAMS AND THE NBM SHOW THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ERODE AND EVENTUALLY EVAPORATING AWAY LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING PARENT
SHORTWAVE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SUNNIER SKIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE LAPSE RATES AND
CAPE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE OVER US DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GREATER HEAT AND
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH TIME TODAY, EXPECT THE HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE 80S, WITH A FEW DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
POTENTIALLY FLIRTING TO NEAR 90F.
RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
IN THE AIR AS IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING WITH THE COOL FRONT BOUNDARY
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY; SHOULD THE CONVECTION HIT THE
BOUNDARY AND HEAD FURTHER SOUTHEAST (AS SOME CAMS SUGGEST), THEN WE
MAY REMAIN RAIN-FREE ACROSS MOST, IF NOT THE ENTIRETY, OF THE U.P.
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SHOULD THE CONVECTION FAIL TO INTERACT ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE BOUNDARY SO AS TO CHANGE ITS COURSE, THEN WE CAN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THERE WON'T BE MUCH SUNLIGHT TO
WORK WITH, GIVEN THE MODEST (AROUND 30 KNOTS) BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
COULD BE SEEN OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS; HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION, WHILE MOST OF THE CAMS DO NOT SHOW THIS, THE HRRR DOES
SHOW STORMS TRAINING BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, OUR CHANCES FOR FLOODING AND PONDING
ACROSS THE AREA WOULD GREATLY INCREASE, NOT TO MENTION THE CHANCES
FOR AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD BE A
REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, AND THIS IS ONLY ONE MODEL (AKA
TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT).
AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY, EXPECT OUR GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA (AND FLOODING POTENTIAL TOO). WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGH PWAT AIR (PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE!) BEING FORCED UP ALONG A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE SEEN IN SEVERAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOULD
WE RECEIVE A GOOD DEAL OF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE, THEN WE MAY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY (THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT WPC HAS PLACED US UNDER
FOR SATURDAY). IN ADDITION, WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TOO, BUT GIVEN THE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND LOWER CAPE,
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE LOWER. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PREDICTED DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COMING DOWN FROM CANADA (AS SEEN IN THE GFS).
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
CANADIAN AND NAM SUITES SHOW PRETTY HIGH QPF TOTALS OVER OUR AREA
FOR SATURDAY STILL.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DWINDLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE U.P. BEING DONE WITH THE RAINFALL
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THIS COULD BE A GOOD SOAKING
(1+ INCHES) EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, HELPING TO ALLEVIATE GROWING
DROUGHT CONCERNS. THE AREA THAT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE ON MISSING
OUT ON MEANINGFUL RAINFALL, THOUGH, IS THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING POTENTIALLY KEEPING MOST OF THE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF IT; SHOULD THIS OCCUR, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT
D0 CONDITIONS WHEN THE NEXT DROUGHT MONITOR IS RELEASED NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL, OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK
TO BE AROUND NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY AND LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FINALLY PUSHES IN AND CLEARS OUT THE SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE DIVERGES AMONG VARIOUS MODEL SUITES,
BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER. THEN, WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION ANY
TIME FROM LATE MONDAY TO DAYTIME TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDLESS, THOUGH, IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES, AFTER CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
GENERALLY VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SITES TODAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING CMX. THERE, ON AND OFF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED,
BUT CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA, LOCALLY LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR OR LOWER (RAINFALL
RATES PERMITTING). IN ADDITION, WE COULD SEE PATCHY FG DEVELOP OVER
THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AS WELL IF EITHER THE CONVECTION ENDS UP
FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED IN THE FORECAST (WHICH IS A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY) OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE SHOWERS/STORMS. MVFR
CEILINGS SETTLE IN AT IWD AND SAW FOR SATURDAY WHILE SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD, THOUGH CMX MAY STAY AT LOW-END VFR. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO FURTHER VIS AND
CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE BEING SEEN ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. WINDS LOOK TO DIAL BACK DOWN TO 20
KNOTS OR LESS BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS JAMES BAY. BEHIND THAT, ADDITIONAL WAVES BRING
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS OFF LATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING; EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE; AS OF
THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE NBM HIGHLIGHTS A 30% CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN ARM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGING PASSES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE WINDS TO SLACKEN A LITTLE BIT; NEVERTHELESS,
SOME EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS COULD STILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS LIGHTEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS RETURN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM CANADA
COMES BACK TO THE REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...LC/TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...LC/TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page