365  
AXUS73 KDLH 231712  
DGTDLH  
MNC001-021-031-035-061-071-075-137-301715-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
1212 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021  
 
...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AFTER RECENT RAINFALL,  
BUT SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST  
MINNESOTA...  
 
.SYNOPSIS:  
 
MUCH NEEDED RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS SOME OF THE MOST DROUGHT-  
STRICKEN AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THIS  
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN SOME NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS, THOUGH MOST AREAS STILL REMAIN SEVERAL INCHES BELOW  
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE. ACCORDING TO THE SEPTEMBER 21, 2021  
RELEASE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) IS  
OCCURRING GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS, LAKE,  
AND COOK COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, AS WELL AS WESTERN  
ITASCA AND MOST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) IS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS IN  
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD AND ASHLAND  
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO MODERATE  
DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA  
AND AREAS EAST INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AN AREA OF  
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) HAS BEEN ELIMINATED WITH THIS UPDATE, AND  
SOME AREAS THAT WERE CLASSIFIED AS EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) HAVE  
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2).THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS  
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FALL FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST  
MINNESOTA, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN PER THE CLIMATE  
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FORECASTS.  
 
.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:  
 
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS: STATE AND LOCAL WILDLAND FIRE MONITORING  
AGENCIES CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.  
 
WILDFIRE THREAT: RECENT RAINS HAVE IMPROVED THE THREAT FOR  
WILDFIRES. ACCORDING TO THE MINNESOTA DNR, THE FIRE DANGER IS LOW  
FOR MOST AREAS AND MODERATE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ST. LOUIS AND  
LAKE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS WESTERN PARTS OF KOOCHICHING, ITASCA,  
AND CASS COUNTIES. THE FIRE DANGER IS LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST  
WISCONSIN ACCORDING TO THE WISCONSIN DNR. WITH GENERALLY DRY  
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND SOIL MOISTURE  
REMAINING DRY FOR SOME AREAS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE  
WILDFIRE THREAT TO WORSEN A BIT, BUT THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES  
REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.  
 
RIVER AND STREAMFLOW IMPACTS: DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE APPARENT IN  
NE MINNESOTA'S RIVERS AND LAKES. ACCORDING TO THE MINNESOTA DNR,  
MPCA AND USGS LOW TO MINIMUM FLOWS ARE OCCURRING AT MANY RIVER  
GAUGES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE RAINY RIVER BASIN IS  
EXPERIENCING SOME OF THE LOWEST WATER LEVELS ON RECORD. RAINFALL  
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER THE LAST 14 DAYS HAS BEEN 1 TO 2  
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER, RAINFALL WAS NOT WIDESPREAD  
THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. RIVER FLOWS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI HAVE  
REMAINED MUCH BELOW NORMAL. WISCONSIN RIVER FLOWS ARE NORMAL TO  
ABOVE NORMAL. WATERCRAFT USERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF NAVIGATION  
HAZARDS LIKE ROCKS.  
 
.CLIMATE SUMMARY:  
 
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE  
PAST TWO WEEKS, WITH MUCH OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE PAST WEEK.  
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 4 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED  
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH A NARROW  
CORRIDOR UP TO 6 INCHES OBSERVED ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY AND INTO  
EASTERN PINE COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN NOTICEABLE  
IMPROVEMENTS IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DEFICITS  
AROUND 2 TO 8 INCHES IN THE PAST 90 DAYS STILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF  
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FAIRLY  
DRY FALL 2020 AND WINTER 2020-2021 WITH BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL AS  
WELL AS A VERY DRY SUMMER 2021 HAVE PRECONDITIONED THE CURRENT  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE DURATION OF THIS DROUGHT IS SIMILAR TO  
THAT OF SUMMER 2017 THROUGH SUMMER 2018 AND SUMMER 2006 THROUGH  
SUMMER 2007. THE COVERAGE OF EXTREME DROUGHT IS GREATER THAN THAT  
SEEN IN THE DROUGHT FROM SUMMER 2006 THROUGH SUMMER 2007.  
 
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS:  
 
RAINFALL CHANCES IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPARSE WITH  
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO WITH  
SOME AREAS SEEING UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CPC IS  
FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN OCTOBER WITH  
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW PRECIPITATION FROM OCTOBER  
THROUGH DECEMBER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND  
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE CPC IS  
FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND  
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM OCTOBER  
THROUGH DECEMBER.  
 
.HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK:  
 
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE  
FUTURE.  
 
.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK:  
 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BUT IMPROVE FOR MOST AREAS  
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA PER CPC FORECASTS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS  
MAY END THIS FALL FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  
 
.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:  
 
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON OR AROUND THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28 OR  
SOONER IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  
 
.RELATED WEB SITES:  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND  
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:  
US DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTPS://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU US DROUGHT  
INFORMATION SYSTEM: HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT  
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER: HTTPS://MRCC.ILLINOIS.EDU  
MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE:  
HTTPS://CLIMATEAPPS.DNR.STATE.MN.US/  
 
ADDITIONAL WATER AND RIVER INFORMATION:  
NWS: HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV  
OWP: HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV  
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS): HTTPS://WATER.USGS.GOV  
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE): HTTPS://WWW.USACE.ARMY.MIL  
 
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:  
 
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL  
INFORMATION, THE USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS  
AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS  
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES,  
STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE AND USGS.  
 
.CONTACT INFORMATION:  
 
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION  
STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT:  
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
5027 MILLER TRUNK HIGHWAY  
DULUTH MN 55811  
PHONE...218-729-6697  
NWS.DULUTH@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
 
JDS  
 
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