768  
FGUS73 KDLH 110908  
ESFDLH  
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-  
051-099-113-129-142300-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
306 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2019  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 01/11/2019 - 03/31/2019  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:PRAIRIE RIVER  
TACONITE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
AITKIN 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FORT RIPLEY 10.0 12.5 26.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SNAKE RIVER  
PINE CITY 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ST. LOUIS RIVER  
SCANLON 10.5 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 01/11/2019 - 03/31/2019  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:PRAIRIE RIVER  
TACONITE 2.6 2.6 2.6 4.0 5.3 6.3 6.6  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
AITKIN 6.8 6.8 6.8 8.6 10.5 12.3 13.6  
FORT RIPLEY 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.8 8.2 9.8 10.8  
:SNAKE RIVER  
PINE CITY 3.8 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.9 7.6 8.6  
:ST. LOUIS RIVER  
SCANLON 3.8 3.8 4.0 5.8 7.5 8.7 9.1  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 01/11/2019 - 03/31/2019  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:PRAIRIE RIVER  
TACONITE 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
AITKIN 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.3  
FORT RIPLEY 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0  
:SNAKE RIVER  
PINE CITY 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9  
:ST. LOUIS RIVER  
SCANLON 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 50 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER.  
BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DLH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS  
LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE  
FOR MINNESOTA WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT  
FOR WISCONSIN WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT  
MN DNR LOCATIONS...REFERENCE  
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML  
OR  
CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF JANUARY.  
 

 
 
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