028  
FGUS73 KFGF 241646  
ESFFGF  
NDC005-027-071-281200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1046 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025  
   
..DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL  
 
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES BETWEEN JANUARY  
AND SEPTEMBER. THEY WILL NOT BE PROVIDED BETWEEN OCTOBER AND  
DECEMBER. DEPENDING ON THE SEASON, THE HIGH OR LOW WATER  
PROBABILITIES MAY BE OMITTED DUE TO THEIR APPLICABILITY TO  
THE HYDROLOGIC SITUATION.  
   
OUTLOOK SUMMARY  
 
NOTE: THIS OUTLOOK INCORPORATES A DAILY AVERAGE OF 350 CFS WORTH OF  
PUMPING OPERATIONS ON DEVILS LAKE FROM MAY 15TH THROUGH OCTOBER 30TH.  
 
PRECIPITATION LAST FALL OVERALL (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER 2024) WAS ABOVE  
NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL IN THE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE FALL SEASON DID END WITH WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. THIS  
ALLOWED SOILS TO BE FAIRLY SATURATED MOVING INTO THE WINTER FREEZE-  
UP PERIOD.  
 
THUS FAR THIS WINTER, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND  
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY  
TRUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH SNOW DEPTH VALUES  
(AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT) DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE  
SOUTHWARD.  
 
CLIMATE OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER AND INTO THE  
SPRING (WITH A BRIEF WARM UP EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK). THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL EITHER WAY FOR ABOVE,  
BELOW, OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO THE SPRING.  
 
THE NEXT LAKE EXCEEDANCE NUMBERS WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, FEBRUARY  
13, 2025.  
 
   
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS  
 
THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING A GIVEN LAKE LEVEL IS THE PERCENTAGE  
OF MAXIMUM LAKE LEVEL RISES THAT ARE ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR ALL THE  
YEARS THAT WERE RUN THROUGH THE MODEL USING THE PRECIPITATION  
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE YEARS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE  
OUTLOOK.  
 
INTERPRETATION AID: THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS  
LAKE WILL RISE ABOVE 51.2 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND  
ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 52.8 FEET.  
 
NOTE: THE CURRENT GAGE ZERO DATUM OF THE DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY  
GAGE IS 1401.33 FEET NAVD88 OR 1400.00 FEET NGVD29. THE GAGE ZERO  
DATUM OF THE STUMP LAKE AT EAST STUMP LAKE GAGE IS 1401.21 FEET  
NAVD88 OR 1400.00 FEET NGVD29.  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS  
 
FROM JANUARY 20, 2025 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2025  
 
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
DEVILS LAKE.....  
CREEL BAY 50.6 50.6 50.9 51.2 51.8 52.4 52.8  
STUMP LAKE.....  
EAST STUMP LAKE 50.6 50.6 50.9 51.2 51.8 52.4 52.8  
 
   
CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS  
 
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE IS 1449.4 FEET NGVD29.  
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE IS 1449.4 FEET NGVD29.  
 
* THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT  
FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:  
...1454.30 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2011  
* PREVIOUS RECORDS:  
...1452.05 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2010  
...1450.93 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2009  
...1449.20 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006  
...1449.18 FEET ON JUNE 17 OF 2004  
...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST 2 OF 2005  
NOTE: ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS ARE RECORDED IN NGVD29.  
 
   
OUTLOOK SCHEDULE  
 
- BETWEEN JANUARY AND MAY, ONLY THE HIGH WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE  
PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER.  
 
- SPECIAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER MANAGEMENT OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED  
IN LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH.  
 
- FOR JUNE AND JULY, BOTH HIGH-WATER AND LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES  
WILL BE PROVIDED.  
 
- FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER, ONLY THE LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE  
PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF NOVEMBER.  
 
- NO PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE/NON-EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION WILL BE  
GIVEN FROM OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER, SINCE LAKE FREEZE-UP  
LEVELS WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FALL OUTLOOKS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.  
   
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
 
THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE  
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE VALID PERIOD USING MULTIPLE  
SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM 1949 TO 2018 AND  
CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER), AND SOIL  
MOISTURE.  
 
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE  
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAA'S  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE  
(NWPS).  
 
A YOUTUBE VIDEO ON "HOW TO INTERPRET RIVER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS" IS AT:  
 
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSOEGVSNPV4  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT  
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK  
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS  
ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NWS GRAND FORKS NWPS WEB PAGE AT:  
 
WWW.WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/FGF  
 
WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR  
A 7-DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF/LAKE_INFO  
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGRANDFORKS  
AND ON TWITTER AT @NWSGRANDFORKS.  
 
 
WEATHER.GOV/FGF  
NNNN  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page
Main Text Page