862  
FGUS73 KFGF 231556  
ESFFGF  
 
NDC005-027-071-281200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1056 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2024  
   
..DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
 
 
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES BETWEEN JANUARY  
AND SEPTEMBER. THEY WILL NOT BE PROVIDED BETWEEN OCTOBER AND  
DECEMBER. DEPENDING ON THE SEASON, THE HIGH OR LOW WATER  
PROBABILITIES MAY BE OMITTED DUE TO THEIR APPLICABILITY TO  
THE HYDROLOGIC SITUATION.  
   
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
 
 
NOTE: THIS OUTLOOK INCORPORATES A DAILY AVERAGE OF 350 CFS WORTH OF  
PUMPING OPERATIONS ON DEVILS LAKE FROM MAY 15TH THROUGH OCTOBER 30TH.  
 
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK  
ISSUANCE! SINCE THE BEGINNING OF APRIL, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN  
RUNNING NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL (I.E., WELL ABOVE NORMAL) FOR  
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE MAJORITY  
OF THE BASIN TO SEE RELIEF FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AS OF THE MOST  
RECENT DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUANCE, ONLY THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF  
THE BASIN REMAINS IN THE D0, OR ABNORMALLY DRY, CATEGORY.  
 
A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO EMERGE FOR THE END OF MAY.  
CLIMATE OUTLOOKS THEN INDICATE NO STRONG SIGNAL IN ANY DIRECTION FOR  
ABOVE, BELOW, OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
SUMMER SEASON.  
 
   
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
 
 
THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING A GIVEN LAKE LEVEL IS THE PERCENTAGE  
OF MAXIMUM LAKE LEVEL RISES THAT ARE ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR ALL THE  
YEARS THAT WERE RUN THROUGH THE MODEL USING THE PRECIPITATION  
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE YEARS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE  
OUTLOOK.  
 
INTERPRETATION AID: THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS  
LAKE WILL RISE ABOVE 1449.6 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND  
ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1450.0 FEET.  
 
NOTE: THE CURRENT GAGE ZERO DATUM OF THE DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY  
GAGE IS 1401.33 FEET NAVD88 OR 1400.00 FEET NGVD29. THE GAGE ZERO  
DATUM OF THE STUMP LAKE AT EAST STUMP LAKE GAGE IS 1401.21 FEET  
NAVD88 OR 1400.00 FEET NGVD29.  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS  
 
FROM MAY 20, 2024 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2024  
 
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
DEVILS LAKE.....  
CREEL BAY 49.5 49.5 49.6 49.6 49.7 49.8 50.0  
STUMP LAKE.....  
EAST STUMP LAKE 49.5 49.5 49.6 49.6 49.7 49.8 50.0  
 
   
CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS
 
 
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE IS 1449.41 FEET NGVD29.  
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE IS 1449.47 FEET NGVD29.  
 
* THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT  
FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:  
...1454.30 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2011  
* PREVIOUS RECORDS:  
...1452.05 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2010  
...1450.93 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2009  
...1449.20 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006  
...1449.18 FEET ON JUNE 17 OF 2004  
...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST 2 OF 2005  
NOTE: ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS ARE RECORDED IN NGVD29.  
 
   
OUTLOOK SCHEDULE
 
 
- BETWEEN JANUARY AND MAY, ONLY THE HIGH WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE  
PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER.  
 
- SPECIAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER MANAGEMENT OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED  
IN LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH.  
 
- FOR JUNE AND JULY, BOTH HIGH-WATER AND LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES  
WILL BE PROVIDED.  
 
- FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER, ONLY THE LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE  
PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF NOVEMBER.  
 
- NO PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE/NON-EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION WILL BE  
GIVEN FROM OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER, SINCE LAKE FREEZE-UP  
LEVELS WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FALL OUTLOOKS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.  
 
   
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
 
 
THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE  
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE VALID PERIOD USING MULTIPLE  
SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM 1949 TO 2018 AND  
CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER), AND SOIL  
MOISTURE.  
 
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE  
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAA'S  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE  
(NWPS).  
 
A YOUTUBE VIDEO ON "HOW TO INTERPRET RIVER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS" IS AT:  
 
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSOEGVSNPV4  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT  
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK  
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS  
ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NWS GRAND FORKS NWPS WEB PAGE AT:  
 
WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/FGF  
 
WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR  
A 7-DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF/LAKE_INFO  
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGRANDFORKS  
AND ON TWITTER AT @NWSGRANDFORKS.  
 

 
WEATHER.GOV/FGF  
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