578
FGUS73 KFGF 271715
ESFFGF
NDC005-027-071-281200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
..DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES BETWEEN JANUARY
AND SEPTEMBER. THEY WILL NOT BE PROVIDED BETWEEN OCTOBER AND
DECEMBER. DEPENDING ON THE SEASON, THE HIGH OR LOW WATER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE OMITTED DUE TO THEIR APPLICABILITY TO
THE HYDROLOGIC SITUATION.
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
NOTE: THIS OUTLOOK INCORPORATES A DAILY AVERAGE OF 350 CFS WORTH OF
PUMPING OPERATIONS ON DEVILS LAKE FROM MAY 15TH THROUGH OCTOBER 30TH.
PRECIPITATION LAST FALL OVERALL (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER 2024) WAS ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE FALL SEASON DID END WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. THIS
ALLOWED SOILS TO BE FAIRLY SATURATED MOVING INTO THE WINTER FREEZE-
UP PERIOD.
THIS WINTER (DECEMBER 2024-FEBRUARY 2025) BROUGHT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SNOWFALL/PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
BASIN. ELSEWHERE, SNOWFALL/PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
VERY LITTLE SNOWPACK REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH).
CLIMATE OUTLOOKS NOW INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MARCH
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK. THERE IS NO
STRONG SIGNAL EITHER WAY FOR ABOVE, BELOW, OR NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE SPRING.
THE NEXT LAKE EXCEEDANCE NUMBERS WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, MARCH
13, 2025.
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING A GIVEN LAKE LEVEL IS THE PERCENTAGE
OF MAXIMUM LAKE LEVEL RISES THAT ARE ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR ALL THE
YEARS (1949-2019) THAT WERE RUN THROUGH THE MODEL USING THE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE YEARS DURING THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
INTERPRETATION AID: THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS
LAKE WILL RISE ABOVE 50.8 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND
A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 52.4 FEET.
NOTE: THE CURRENT GAGE ZERO DATUM OF THE DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY
GAGE IS 1401.33 FEET NAVD88 OR 1400.00 FEET NGVD29. THE GAGE ZERO
DATUM OF THE STUMP LAKE AT EAST STUMP LAKE GAGE IS 1401.21 FEET
NAVD88 OR 1400.00 FEET NGVD29.
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
FROM FEBRUARY 24, 2025 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
CREEL BAY 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.3 51.8 52.4
STUMP LAKE.....
EAST STUMP LAKE 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.3 51.8 52.4
CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE IS 1449.4 FEET NGVD29.
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE IS 1449.4 FEET NGVD29.
* USGS DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT RECORDS FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL
BAY GAGE:
...1454.30 FEET ON JUNE 27, 2011
...1452.05 FEET ON JUNE 27, 2010
...1450.93 FEET ON JUNE 27, 2009
...1449.20 FEET ON MAY 9, 2006
...1449.18 FEET ON JUNE 17, 2004
...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST 2, 2005
NOTE: ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS ARE RECORDED IN NGVD29.
OUTLOOK SCHEDULE
- BETWEEN JANUARY AND MAY, ONLY THE HIGH WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE
PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
- SPECIAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED
FROM MID-FEBRUARY THROUGH MID-MARCH.
- FOR JUNE AND JULY, BOTH HIGH-WATER AND LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL
BE PROVIDED.
- FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER, ONLY THE LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE
PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF NOVEMBER.
- NO PROBABILITY INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED FROM OCTOBER THROUGH
DECEMBER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
THESE LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT AS AN
INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF LAKE LEVELS THAT MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, NOTE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT LAKE LEVELS MAY STILL REACH ABOVE/FALL BELOW THE 95TH AND 5TH
PERCENTILE VALUES.
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE POTENTIAL LAKE
LEVELS FOR THE FULL OUTLOOK PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES.
THESE GRAPHICS, AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THEM,
CAN BE FOUND ON THE NWS GRAND FORKS NWPS WEB PAGE BY CLICKING ON
"RIVERS AND LAKES" ABOVE THE MAP AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF.
WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
A 7-DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF/LAKE_INFO.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGRANDFORKS
AND ON X AT @NWSGRANDFORKS.
WEATHER.GOV/FGF
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