325
FGUS73 KMPX 271714
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-282359-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
...THE SPRING FLOOD THREAT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS YEAR...
SINCE THE INITIAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK TWO WEEKS AGO, THE THREAT FOR
SPRING FLOODING HAS FURTHER DECREASED AS RECENT WARM WEATHER HAS LED
TO THE ELIMINATION OF THE MAJORITY OF WHAT WAS A BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK.
SOIL CONDITIONS ARE OVERALL DRIER THAN NORMAL WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA
REMAINING IN DROUGHT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL FLOOD
FACTORS TO KEEP IN MIND RELATED TO THE TEMPERATURES BEING MUCH COLDER
THAN LAST YEAR, COMBINED WITH THE SNOW-FREE GROUND.
THOSE FACTORS ARE DEEPER THAN NORMAL FROST PENETRATION AND NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ICE THICKNESS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
THE SNOW FREE GROUND COUPLED WITH COLD SPELLS THROUGHOUT THE WINTER
HAS LED TO FROST PENETRATIONS OF GENERALLY TWO TO THREE FEET.
TYPICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE FROST DEPTH IS GENERALLY ONE TO
LESS THAN TWO FEET, SO IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER THIS YEAR. THIS
COULD BECOME A FACTOR FOR SPRING FLOODING IF OUR AREA RECEIVES
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BETWEEN NOW AND SPRING, OR RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT
RAIN, OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. SIMPLY PUT, THERE IS MORE RUNOFF
POTENTIAL WHEN THE GROUND IS FROZEN BUT IS DEPENDENT OF FUTURE
PRECIPITATION.
A SIMILAR STORY CAN BE SAID ABOUT ICE THICKNESS ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM, ADDITIONAL FLOW IS NEEDED. SO, THIS
THREAT IS CONDITIONAL UPON FUTURE PRECIPITATION. IF OUR AREA
RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND RUNS OFF INTO THE RIVERS,
THEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE ICE THICKNESS WOULD POSE MORE OF A THREAT OF
ICE JAMS OCCURRING.
IN TERMS OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN, THE OUTLOOKS INDICATE NO STRONG
SIGNAL FOR ABOVE, BELOW, OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MARCH.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN OVERALL SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MARCH, BUT NOT A STRONG SIGNAL. LOOKING FURTHER OUT
IN TIME, THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS DO NOT INDICATE A STRONG SIGNAL IN TERMS OF
ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL/NORMAL (HS)
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN
THAT OF HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN THAT OF HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATERGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 39.0 40.0 42.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 10 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 22 38 6 16 <5 <5
NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 10 30 6 18 <5 11
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 7 30 <5 19 <5 9
GRANITE FALLS 885.0 889.0 892.0 : <5 21 <5 7 <5 <5
MORTON 21.0 23.0 26.0 : 9 33 <5 20 <5 7
NEW ULM 800.0 804.0 806.0 : <5 18 <5 9 <5 6
MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 7 <5 <5
HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : <5 18 <5 8 <5 <5
JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 7 27 <5 16 <5 <5
SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 25 63 <5 13 <5 10
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 7.0 8.0 10.0 : 9 18 <5 6 <5 <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 19 27 <5 12 <5 8
DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 9 20 7 16 <5 12
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 11 21 <5 13 <5 8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 7 32 <5 15 <5 <5
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 20 <5 8 <5 <5
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 6.0 7.0 8.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
ST FRANCIS 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 9 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 12 26 <5 9 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 8 <5 7 <5 6
ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 23 <5 19 <5 12
HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 11 39 <5 19 <5 13
RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : <5 23 <5 17 <5 8
RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 20 <5 14 <5 10
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 897.0 899.0 900.0 : 7 21 <5 5 <5 <5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 6 24 <5 17 <5 12
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 6 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : <5 18 <5 9 <5 6
DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 15 46 <5 19 <5 10
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION (NORMAL)
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 32.2 32.2 32.5 32.9 33.5 34.0 34.6
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.7 6.1 7.7
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 14.4 14.6 15.6 17.4 21.0 25.0 28.5
NEW ULM 4.9 5.2 6.2 7.1 9.2 11.0 14.3
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 5.7 5.7 6.9 9.5 11.7 12.6 14.4
GRANITE FALLS 881.1 881.1 881.5 882.4 883.0 883.3 884.0
MORTON 11.1 11.3 13.8 16.8 18.7 20.7 22.4
NEW ULM 787.3 787.8 790.0 792.1 793.4 796.2 798.0
MANKATO 6.5 7.3 9.3 11.0 13.7 16.3 18.5
HENDERSON 716.8 717.8 721.0 724.1 726.9 729.3 730.9
JORDAN 7.9 8.9 12.6 17.2 21.3 24.2 25.5
SAVAGE 688.0 688.7 692.8 698.5 701.9 705.8 707.2
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 3.3 3.5 4.4 5.0 6.1 6.9 7.2
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 1.5 1.7 2.8 3.3 4.3 4.9 5.5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 3.5 4.8 6.5 8.3 10.4 12.2 14.2
DELANO 7.8 9.4 11.0 12.8 15.0 16.4 17.8
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 3.8 4.2 5.0 6.8 8.2 10.3 11.5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.5 8.6 9.4
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.4 7.9 10.3 11.8
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.9
ST FRANCIS 4.0 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.9 9.0
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.6 9.5 11.6 13.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 5.8 6.0 7.2 8.2 10.5 12.8 13.6
ST PAUL 3.0 3.5 4.6 6.8 9.4 12.1 13.0
HASTINGS L/D#2 5.5 6.2 7.2 9.9 12.6 15.1 15.7
RED WING L/D#3 670.5 670.9 673.1 675.5 677.7 679.8 680.3
RED WING 4.6 4.8 6.1 7.8 9.8 12.0 12.9
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 891.5 891.7 892.6 893.8 894.8 896.4 897.2
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 76.5 76.9 78.9 81.3 83.7 86.4 87.5
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 3.9 4.9 5.7 6.7 7.9 9.2 11.3
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 762.8 763.5 764.6 766.2 768.2 771.2 772.0
DURAND 6.9 7.6 8.6 10.1 11.6 14.0 14.8
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS
INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT)
FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NEW ULM 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
GRANITE FALLS 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
MORTON 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4
NEW ULM 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
MANKATO 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7
HENDERSON 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8
JORDAN 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8
SAVAGE 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.4 1.8
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
DELANO 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.6
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.6 2.9 2.1
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ST FRANCIS 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.4 2.5
ST PAUL 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.0 4.9 3.7
HASTINGS L/D#2 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.2 5.1 3.9
RED WING L/D#3 12.9 12.8 12.0 11.2 9.6 8.3 6.6
RED WING 13.5 13.4 12.6 11.7 10.0 8.7 7.0
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
:ST CROIX RIVER
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8
DURAND 5.0 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.7
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM MORE THAN 70 YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, ALONG WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER
LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, AND SNOW COVER.
THIS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ONLINE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT, AT
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUES BI-WEEKLY THROUGH MID MARCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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