556
FGUS73 KMPX 232040
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
340 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2023
..SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD THREAT REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI, MINNESOTA, AND CHIPPEWA (WI) RIVER BASINS...
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/27/2023 - 06/25/2023
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATERGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 39.0 40.0 42.0 : 16 10 11 <5 6 <5
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 45 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 22.0 27.0 32.0 : >95 42 26 22 <5 6
NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 83 32 36 21 6 8
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : >95 37 55 25 25 14
GRANITE FALLS 885.0 889.0 892.0 : 48 24 6 7 <5 <5
MORTON 21.0 23.0 26.0 : >95 40 53 26 10 10
NEW ULM 800.0 804.0 806.0 : 48 21 11 11 6 8
MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 22 17 9 9 <5 <5
HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : 47 21 9 10 <5 <5
JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 67 30 27 16 <5 <5
SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : >95 64 48 15 27 12
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 7.0 8.0 10.0 : 74 22 22 8 <5 <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : 47 11 12 6 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : >95 35 30 14 19 11
DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 87 20 52 16 30 13
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 91 24 56 13 24 10
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 89 31 57 16 31 <5
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 89 24 60 14 30 7
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 21 7 6 <5 <5 <5
ST FRANCIS 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 79 20 11 <5 <5 <5
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 89 28 59 14 34 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 16.0 16.5 17.0 : 44 8 36 7 28 6
ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 83 26 71 20 47 13
HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : >95 36 71 20 55 13
RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 94 26 89 16 59 10
RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 91 19 83 14 69 11
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 897.0 899.0 900.0 : >95 15 26 5 9 <5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : >95 25 92 19 81 11
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 30 22 8 6 <5 <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : 30 14 8 7 <5 <5
DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 76 42 22 10 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/27/2023 - 06/25/2023
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 34.4 34.6 34.8 35.8 37.9 40.7 43.4
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.8 7.3 8.4 11.0
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 22.7 23.1 23.7 25.1 27.1 29.6 30.7
NEW ULM 10.8 10.8 11.1 12.1 13.8 15.2 17.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 14.5 14.7 15.2 16.2 17.5 18.4 19.1
GRANITE FALLS 883.3 883.3 883.7 884.8 887.0 888.5 889.3
MORTON 21.5 21.6 22.0 23.3 24.7 25.9 27.4
NEW ULM 797.1 797.3 798.0 799.8 802.0 804.2 806.5
MANKATO 15.5 16.1 17.0 19.0 21.8 24.2 27.2
HENDERSON 729.2 729.4 730.0 731.8 734.1 735.8 738.5
JORDAN 24.0 24.1 24.6 26.5 28.5 30.3 32.7
SAVAGE 706.5 707.4 708.5 710.0 712.6 713.7 715.3
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 6.4 6.4 7.0 7.2 7.8 8.5 8.7
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.8
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 12.2 12.3 12.8 13.9 15.2 17.5 20.3
DELANO 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.5 18.9 20.3 21.9
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 9.7 10.0 10.6 12.5 13.9 16.0 17.1
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 8.6 9.0 9.3 10.3 11.3 12.4 12.9
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 10.4 11.9 12.6 14.3 18.2 21.5 23.9
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.2
ST FRANCIS 7.2 7.5 8.3 8.6 9.5 10.1 10.5
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 10.6 10.9 12.1 13.5 14.6 15.3 15.9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 12.4 13.5 14.1 15.3 17.5 18.9 20.1
ST PAUL 12.4 13.4 14.5 16.8 19.5 21.1 22.8
HASTINGS L/D#2 15.3 15.9 16.7 18.1 19.8 20.9 21.9
RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 682.3 683.5 684.5 685.6 686.4
RED WING 12.9 14.2 15.7 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.0
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 897.6 897.7 898.0 898.3 899.1 899.8 900.4
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 87.3 88.3 89.4 91.1 92.6 93.8 94.7
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 7.7 7.9 8.4 9.1 11.2 12.9 14.4
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 767.4 768.1 768.9 770.6 773.5 775.4 776.6
DURAND 11.8 12.1 13.1 14.0 15.4 16.4 16.8
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/27/2023 - 06/25/2023
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.5 12.4 12.4
NEW ULM 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8
GRANITE FALLS 880.2 880.2 880.2 880.2 880.1 880.1 880.1
MORTON 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0
NEW ULM 786.0 785.9 785.9 785.9 785.8 785.8 785.8
MANKATO 7.1 7.0 6.8 5.9 4.6 3.7 3.3
HENDERSON 719.9 719.7 719.4 718.5 716.4 714.9 714.4
JORDAN 11.3 11.1 10.8 9.9 7.9 6.4 5.9
SAVAGE 688.9 688.9 688.8 688.7 688.3 687.8 687.6
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2
DELANO 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
ST FRANCIS 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
ST PAUL 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4
HASTINGS L/D#2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1
RED WING L/D#3 668.9 668.9 668.9 668.8 668.7 668.6 668.4
RED WING 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.9
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 891.1 891.0 890.7 890.4 890.1 889.9 889.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 760.3 760.1 759.6 759.2 758.9 758.8 758.8
DURAND 4.5 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.2
MORE RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER ALL OF THE
BASINS AS WE HEAD INTO MID MARCH. THE THREAT IS ESPECIALLY HIGH FOR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ST. PAUL DOWNSTREAM. ALLEVIATING FACTORS
SUCH AS A SHALLOW FROST DEPTH, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE,
AND LOW WATER LEVELS IN WETLANDS/LAKES, WILL HELP SOMEWHAT BUT ARE
BECOMING LESS RELEVANT AS WE MOVE INTO SPRING. THE SEVERITY OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TYPE OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS WE RECEIVE THIS SPRING; MAJOR WARMING
AND/OR SPRING RAINS AT THE TIME OF PEAK MELTING WOULD CAUSE FLOODING
TO GREATLY INCREASE.
ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS WE BEGIN TO BREAKUP, THOUGH WITH LOWER
BASE RIVER LEVELS, THE SEVERITY WOULD BE SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF RIVER
LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
FOR GRAPHICAL OUTLOOKS AT SPECIFIC RIVER GAGE LOCATIONS, PLEASE SEE:
WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP
THIS THE FINAL SCHEDULED OUTLOOK FOR 2023.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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