080  
FNUS73 KABR 281650  
FWSABR  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDFIRE SPOT...USDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1150 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 CDT ON JULY 28.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4 OUT OF 5) FOR A LINE OF SEVERE  
STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING AS MODELS ARE  
NOT IN A LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THE MOMENT. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SD AROUND MID-DAY AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD  
OVER THE STATE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THESE STORMS IS WINDS OF 80+  
MPH WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR HAIL GREATER THAN AN INCH IN  
DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  
 
BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE, THERE WILL BE EAST  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH. ONCE THE LINE OF  
STORMS MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND  
15 MPH AND COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................7 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.32 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100.  
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (34500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (78100 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........32 25 32 40 46 58  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 20 40  
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 10 20 30  
TEMP............83 87 89 92 96 91  
RH..............72 63 61 53 43 49  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 10 15 16  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 14 14 17 24 24  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 3.0 4.1 5.2 6.0 3.9  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.PR FR FR GD GD FR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
CWR.................7 PERCENT INCREASING TO 31 PERCENT EARLY IN THE  
EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN  
THE EVENING DECREASING TO 7 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.36 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 13  
TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (46900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (12100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........49 53 59 80 60 41 48 50 44 53 57 74  
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 40 30 20 10 10 10 0 0 10 0  
CHC OF LTNG (%).30 30 40 30 20 10 10 10 0 0 10 0  
TEMP............90 84 82 79 76 73 71 70 68 67 65 64  
RH..............50 61 63 72 74 81 87 87 93 97 100 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.25 23 23 23 23 23 21 20 20 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CWR.................3 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
EAST AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-4800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 13 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (12100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (66500 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........63 79 73 66 55 68 62 55 59 63 67 66  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
CHC OF LTNG (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............64 63 65 65 69 72 75 79 80 82 83 82  
RH..............100 100 97 97 84 76 69 60 58 55 53 55  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 23  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.5  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR GD GD GD  
 

 
FORECASTER...VERNON  
REQUESTED BY...TYLER BROWN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2518742.0/ABR  
.DELDT 07/28/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL TGBROWN1836@GMAIL.COM  
 
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