434
FNUS73 KDLH 171658
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR FLANDERS FIRE...MNICS IMT TEAM C
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MAY 17.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
DISCUSSION
PRIMARILY PRECIPITATION-FREE UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT 10% OR LESS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH POCKETS OF SUN AT TIMES. MIN RH DIPS TO AROUND
45-50% AS OF MIDDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO SLOWLY RISE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES DUE TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE AHEAD OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS REMAIN
E TO ESE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER,
WITH THE BETTER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYING
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRE AREA. STILL, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (50-60% CHANCE) STARTING AS
EARLY AS 2000-2200 THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING MAINLY THROUGH
0200-0300 TONIGHT, WITH A STRAY SHOWER CHANCE (20%) THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL LATE THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED. WINDS BACK TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AT 3-6 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 10-15 MPH, THOUGH ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. RH RECOVERS TO 95-100% TONIGHT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 23 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (45300-57100 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............54 54 54 56 54 53
RH..............53 57 62 60 67 68
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 12 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.22 23 23 23 23 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 24 25 24 24 24
SDSPL KT-FT/100051 52 57 54 55 46
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER 3
AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 14 MPH
OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 8
MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (24600-42000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING
TO POOR TO FAIR (5500-13700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.38 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 30 50 50 60 60 50 40 30 20 20
TEMP............52 49 49 48 47 48 47 47 48 46 48 47
RH..............71 77 81 85 85 90 96 95 96 97 94 99
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E NE NE NE N N
20 FT WIND SPD..12 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.23 22 22 21 18 16 14 13 12 11 11 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E NE E NE N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 23 20 21 16 16 14 9 8 8 8 8
SDSPL KT-FT/100042 34 27 25 14 14 12 8 6 7 7 7
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (6900-24900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
FAIR (28400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 20
TEMP............47 48 48 49 49 51 52 54 55 56 56 56
RH..............100 91 88 85 82 77 77 71 68 68 66 67
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 12 13 12 13 13 12 10 12 13 13
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 9 13 15 17 23 25 23 24 28 33 33
FORECASTER...CORY
REQUESTED BY...TAYLOR SCHENK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613849.3/DLH
.DELDT 05/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BGEVANS@DULUTHMN.GOV,CLAYTON.BARG@CROWWING.GOV,CRAIG.SCHULTZ@STATE.MN.US,TAYLOR_SCHENK@FIRENET.GOV,JENNIFER.OLSON@STATE.MN.US,JEREMY_FAUSKEE@FIRENET.GOV
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