166
FNUS73 KDLH 180048
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR STEWART TRAIL FIRE...MNICS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
748 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2000 CDT ON MAY 17.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TONIGHT
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, GUSTING TO 30-35
MPH THROUGH 10PM. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BUT WIND GUSTS TO 20MPH
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE SITE
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTH MN, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AND ARRIVAL TIME OF AFTER 11PM, WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER
STORMS (LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN) REMAINING SOUTH OF THE SITE.
PRIMARY CONCERNS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER 6AM. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IF A STORM MANAGES TO PASS OVER THE LOCATION.
AFTER THE RAIN CLEARS OUT MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING BACK OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TRENDING SE OF THE LOCATION, WITH AROUND
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY, WINDS WEAKEN AS RAINFALL ENDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH THEN
NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 16 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 12
MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4800-19100 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.41 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 40 50 70 70 60 50 40 30
TEMP............42 41 41 42 42 42 43 41 43 44
RH..............73 77 82 86 89 93 93 96 96 96
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..15 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 3 2
20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 27 26 23 21 19 16 14 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.25 25 23 22 20 17 17 16 12 9
SDSPL KT-FT/100019 18 16 15 14 10 11 7 7 5
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............43 46 48 49 50 51 52 52 52 52 51 50
RH..............100 93 89 86 86 83 80 77 77 77 77 80
20 FT WIND DIR..NE N N N N N N S E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE N N N NE NE E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7
SDSPL KT-FT/10003 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2900-16600 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.45 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 50 60 60 60 100 100 100 100 100
TEMP............50 47 44 44 42 43 42 41 42 40 41 40
RH..............77 86 93 93 96 93 96 96 93 96 93 96
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 5 5 5 6 8 10 11 11 10 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.9 12 14 14 16 19 20 21 21 21 19 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 12 13 15 16 16 17 13 12 15 8
SDSPL KT-FT/10004 5 6 8 10 12 12 17 5 5 9 3
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND
5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
10 TO 18 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (3400-13000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
GOOD (44200-56100 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).100 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............40 41 42 43 44 45 46 46 46 46 46 46
RH..............96 93 89 86 79 76 71 71 68 68 65 63
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3
20 FT WIND GUST.14 12 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.0 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE N NW NW N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 12 10 12 14 15 15 15 16 17 18 18
SDSPL KT-FT/10003 10 8 13 24 31 35 38 44 50 55 56
FORECASTER...HOLLY
REQUESTED BY...CASSANDRA DEMILLO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613845.3/DLH
.DELDT 05/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CASSANDRA.DEMILLO@STATE.MN.US,CHRISTOPHER.BERGQUIST@STATE.MN.US
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