751
FNUS73 KDLH 111702
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR JULY LIGHTNING EVENT...MNICS TYPE 3 INCIDENT MANAGEMENT TEAM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1202 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 CDT ON JULY 11.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
HOT TEMPERATURES AT THE FIRE LOCATIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (10-20%
CHANCES), BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION AND POTENTIAL IS LOW
DUE TO WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FORCING. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OF 0.25-0.5". HOWEVER, MOST SHOWERS OR STORMS
SHOULD THEY DEVELOP WOULD PRODUCE AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.1" OF NEW
RAINFALL. MIN RH DIPS TO AROUND 40% THIS AFTERNOON AND RECOVERS TO
AROUND 90% TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-8 MPH,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 10-15 MPH BEFORE
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TONIGHT THAT COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THIS OCCURRENCE.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS MIN
RH DIPS TO AROUND 30% ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100F, AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7-11 MPH AND GUSTS OF
18-23 MPH FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER DAY OF
AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, AND MIN RH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS ARE
FORECAST TO DIP TO 23-27%.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (48200-65200 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 20 20 20 20
TEMP............88 89 90 91 90 91
RH..............47 44 44 41 42 42
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.4 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.3 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 12 12 12 12
SDSPL KT-FT/100048 54 63 65 63 55
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (34300-42600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(4100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY COVER.......PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 0 20 30 20
TEMP............90 86 76 74 72 70
RH..............45 53 76 82 84 87
20 FT WIND......SW 5 S 3 S 4 S 4 S 4 SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 13 14 15 16
MIX HGT (FT)....4300 700 500 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12 S 10 S 10 S 12 S 13 SW 14
SDSPL KT-FT/100043 6 4 5 5 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20
TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (6100-19600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
FAIR TO GOOD (26900-33400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT
(52400-69100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (105900-119200 KNOT-FT)
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
(173400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO EXCELLENT
(105700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0
TEMP............69 79 93 99
RH..............90 72 43 32
20 FT WIND......SW 5G16 SW 5G15 SW 7G15 SW 9G22
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1500 3300 6600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 SW 15 SW 18 SW 21
SDSPL KT-FT/10006 20 52 119
FORECASTER...CORY
REQUESTED BY...TAYLOR SCHENK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617211.0/DLH
.DELDT 07/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BENJAMIN_EVANS@FIRENET.GOV,TAYLOR_SCHENK@FIRENET.GOV,BENJAMIN_EVANS@FIRENET.GOV.
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