455
FNUS73 KDLH 152158
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR JENKINS CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
458 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 CDT ON JUNE 16.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCUR MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. ANY SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED AND OFF-AND-ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING MAINLY A
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING HAZARD. IN THE AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AT THE FIRE SITE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20%) BUILD OVER THE FIRE
SITE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AROUND 1" IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH LASTING INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR TO WESTERLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS (2200-0000 CT), WITH ANOTHER QUICK WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY FROM 0000-0300 CT.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF A 20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING GIVES WAY TO SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WOULD LARGELY BE EXPECTED
TO HAVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
HAZARD CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (3300-18400 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 40 50 60 70
TEMP............57 64 67 69 70
RH..............100 87 81 73 75
20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 S 5 S 6 S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 11 13 14
MIX HGT (FT)....700 1300 1700 2000 2000
TRANSPORT WIND..S 6 S 7 S 7 S 10 S 10
SDSPL KT-FT/10003 8 10 18 18
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING. STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST AFTER 3 AM.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO
16 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2600-20200 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.34 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 70 40 30 20
TEMP............69 64 60 58 59 56
RH..............76 87 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 5 SW 4 W 4 W 4 NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.14 12 11 11 12 13
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 700 300 400 500 700
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 14 SE 13 W 12 W 15 NW 17
SDSPL KT-FT/100020 9 4 4 7 10
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13100-27600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (60600-85400 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............56 57 60 64 67 70 72 74 75 77 77 78
RH..............100 100 96 84 73 63 57 53 50 45 45 42
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.7 5.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 16
SDSPL KT-FT/100013 15 21 28 34 43 52 61 69 78 85 70
FORECASTER...NATHAN
REQUESTED BY...ANDREW WESTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516014.0/DLH
.DELDT 06/15/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MNMNCC_OPERATIONS@FIRENET.GOV
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