879
FNUS73 KDLH 102336
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNKEN LAKE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 11.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
GUSTS UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH AROUND 10 AM. AN INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SHOULD KEEP SMOKE DISPERSAL INITIALLY FAIR,
THEN THE INVERSION MIXES OUT, SMOKE DISPERSAL SHOULD INCREASE TO
GOOD WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 4000-4300 FT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS, DAYTIME MIXING AND DRY AIR IN AND ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD STILL ALLOW RH TO DIP BELOW 30% FOR THE AFTERNOON,
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 20% IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD
COVER IS SLOWER TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MIN RH COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS (%). SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUSTAINED AT 8-11 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. GIVEN THE LOWER RH VALUES, NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
RH RECOVERS TO AROUND 85% MONDAY NIGHT WITH A 50-70% CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AND THEN A 20-40% CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT, WRAP-
AROUND SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS ONLY 10-20%. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, THEN VEER TO WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
WITH LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES AND PRIMARILY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EXPECT MIN RH TO ONLY DIP TO AROUND 45-50%.
TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 58F.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (15200-32800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING
TO GOOD (38000-57100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............42 47 50 54 56 58 59 60 62
RH..............46 40 34 28 26 24 23 21 21
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 11 12 14 14 15 16 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.5 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 9 9 9 10 13 15 16
SDSPL KT-FT/100015 20 26 30 33 38 46 56 57
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (52600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (6000
KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 40 40 40 70 70 70 40 40
TEMP............61 60 58 54 52 50 49 48 47 46 45 44
RH..............23 27 30 34 39 44 50 54 60 68 73 82
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.19 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 19 18 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.8 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S SE S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 16 17 17 18 17 18 15 14 14 12
SDSPL KT-FT/100053 27 20 16 14 16 12 15 8 7 9 6
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST
5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 14
TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE
MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (5000-13800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (94500-133100 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC PC CLR PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............45 46 48 51 53 54 54 54 55 56 57 57
RH..............82 86 83 71 64 61 59 59 55 53 49 49
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 4 6 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 18 21 23 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.9 1.1 2.1 3.3 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 14 18 23 25 26 28 29 30 30 28
SDSPL KT-FT/10005 9 14 33 66 93 114 129 133 129 115 95
FORECASTER...CORY
REQUESTED BY...BRENT RAHN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613275.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRENT.N.RAHN@USDA.GOV
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