715
FNUS73 KDLH 071136
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIRCH BAY FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 CDT ON JUNE 07.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT WINDS TO IMMEDIATELY START THE MORNING, BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 15-20 MPH. LOOKING AT A HOTTER DAY TODAY WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE AROUND 85 DEGREES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING,
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MIN RH FROM
BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR. LATEST FORECAST FOR MIN RH IS AROUND 32-35%
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE FIRE LOCATION RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF
WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NEITHER WINDS/GUSTS OR RH ARE EXPECTED TO
HIT THE TYPICAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THE COMBINATION OF
FAIRLY LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS INFORMED THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ISSUANCE.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE MORNING. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 0.1-0.25" RANGE, BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER TO
0.5-0.75" IF A FEW STORMS MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE FIRE LOCATION.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE AREA, MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 77 DEGREES AND A MIN RH OF 60%
OR HIGHER. EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 7-10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
15-18 MPH THROUGHOUT MONDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (7400-26300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (61600-83800 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR CLR CLR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............58 64 71 75 78 81 82 84 84 85 84
RH..............76 63 53 48 43 39 38 36 36 35 37
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.7 12 14 15 16 16 16 18 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.9 4.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 20 20
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 17 26 37 49 62 69 77 84 84 80
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH
IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (66200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(6600 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 10
TEMP............83 75 67 65 63 61
RH..............40 50 61 65 72 78
20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 9 SE 8 SE 7 SE 7 S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 16 15 16
MIX HGT (FT)....4100 1100 600 600 700 600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 18 SE 15 SE 14 S 13 S 13 S 13
SDSPL KT-FT/100066 15 7 7 8 7
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING THEN 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (6900-20700 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY MC MC
WEATHER COV.....SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 60 70 60 60 80 50 50 40 30 20 20
TEMP............58 62 64 65 68 69 70 70 72 73 74 76
RH..............90 84 81 78 73 73 73 73 71 68 66 64
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SE SE S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 16 18 16 18 18 18 16 16 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 14 14 16 15 16 15 14 13 14 12
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 8 15 16 18 18 21 20 18 16 20 14
FORECASTER...CORY
REQUESTED BY...MARY WACHUTA
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614806.15/DLH
.DELDT 06/07/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRINKMANJ@STLOUISCOUNTYMN.GOV,MASON.VANCE@USDA.GOV,MARY.WACHUTA@USDA.GOV,JAYEA@STLOUISCOUNTYMN.GOV
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