670
FNUS73 KDLH 170154
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR FLANDERS FIRE...MNICS IMT TEAM C
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
854 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2100 CDT ON MAY 16.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
DISCUSSION
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO LIGHTEN UP AND START SHIFTING IN
DIRECTION. EXPECT LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO, THEN EVENTUALLY EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITY HAS
ALREADY IMPROVED FROM EARLIER AND WILL GRADUALLY KEEP RISING
OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM
THE EAST. DESPITE RISING HUMIDITY TONIGHT, WE WILL STILL BE
HANGING ON TO A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS INTO SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE ONSET OF APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATING RAIN UNTIL THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, PROBABLY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET.
BETWEEN NOON AND SUNSET, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN, BUT I'D SAY IT'S QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT NOT MUCH WILL FALL IN THAT TIME GIVEN HOW DRY IT
SHOULD STILL BE. FOR THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING RAIN STARTING EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING, SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED.
OVERALL, THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS TRENDED TO THE EAST, FAVORING
WISCONSIN. BUT, WE ARE LOOKING AT SOMEWHERE AROUND A HALF INCH
SUNDAY NIGHT, GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH OF AN INCH DEPENDING ON IF
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SITE OR NOT.
IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE MAY SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF MONDAY AND
THEN SOME LIGHTER RAINFALL RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL,
UNFORTUNATELY, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN A
BIT FOR THIS STORM, BUT AROUND THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH OF RAIN
IS THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 5
TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 10 TO
14 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4000 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............53 51 49 47 45 44 42 42 42
RH..............47 50 54 59 64 66 70 73 75
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE NE NE E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 13 14 14 15 16 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NE NE E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 13 13 14 14
SDSPL KT-FT/10005 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 26
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 24 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (8500-22900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
FAIR TO GOOD (29200-49200 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 20 40 50 60 60 50 50 50
TEMP............42 44 47 51 51 52 53 53 53 54 51 51
RH..............72 68 58 50 52 50 52 58 64 69 74 73
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.20 21 23 23 25 25 25 25 26 25 25 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E SE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 18 21 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 23 23
SDSPL KT-FT/10009 19 23 31 37 41 47 49 42 44 36 33
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 6 MPH AFTER 3
AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (8300-26800 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.58 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 70 70 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60
TEMP............50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 48 50 49
RH..............77 80 80 83 85 89 95 98 98 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E NE NE NE NE N
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 23 22 21 19 15 14 14 13 13 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 20 16 16 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 9
SDSPL KT-FT/100027 23 17 17 11 12 10 9 9 9 9 9
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 13
TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (9000-29300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
GOOD (31200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............48 49 49 49 49 50 52 54 55 55 56 55
RH..............100 96 95 91 89 86 82 76 73 72 71 72
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE N N N NE N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 12 13 15 17 16 15 13 13 13 14 14
SDSPL KT-FT/10009 11 14 17 21 23 26 26 29 32 36 35
FORECASTER...JOSH
REQUESTED BY...TAYLOR SCHENK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613849.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CRAIG.SCHULTZ@STATE.MN.US,JENNIFER.OLSON@STATE.MN.US,JEREMY_FAUSKEE@FIRENET.GOV,TAYLOR_SCHENK@FIRENET.GOV,CLAYTON.BARG@CROWWING.GOV
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