040  
FNUS73 KMPX 142252  
FWSMPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BHAGYAM RX...RED ROCK FIRE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
552 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 CDT ON APRIL 14.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A  
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE NIGHTFALL. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE AROUND 40 DURING THE EARLY EVENING, COOLING INTO THE 30S AFTER  
DARK. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO AROUND  
20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN  
THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 20 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34.  
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17 TO 21 MPH.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 17 TO 21 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (23100-43800 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM  
TEMP............40 40 38 38 37 37 36 36 35 35 34 34  
RH..............76 76 85 85 89 89 92 89 92 89 92 89  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.17 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 18 20 20 21 20 17 18 18 20 20 18  
MIXING WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
MIXING WIND SPD.20 18 20 20 21 20 17 18 18 20 20 18  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
SDSPL KT-FT/100044 31 33 28 32 26 23 30 26 25 26 23  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 44.  
RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (23200-42800 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
TEMP............34 36 38 41 44 44  
RH..............89 82 79 70 60 62  
20 FT WIND......NW 8 NW 7 NW 8 NW 9 NW 9 N 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1900 2500 2900 3300 3200  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 18 N 16 N 16 N 15 N 12 N 15  
MIXING WIND.....NW 18 N 16 N 16 N 15 N 12 N 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2  
SDSPL KT-FT/100025 26 34 37 33 42  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN  
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37.  
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-800 FT AGL  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5200-36300 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM  
TEMP............44 42 39 38 37 37  
RH..............65 73 85 89 92 92  
20 FT WIND......N 8 N 6 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 10 7 7 7 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 1400 1200 1000 800 700  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 15 N 14 NW 9 N 12 N 10 N 9  
MIXING WIND.....N 15 N 14 NW 9 N 12 N 10 N 9  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
SDSPL KT-FT/100036 17 10 10 7 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...SCHMIT  
REQUESTED BY...MARK PLANTZ  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2109105.0/MPX  
.EMAIL MARK.PLANTZ@REDROCKFIRE.COM  
 
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