143
FXUS63 KABR 250607
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
107 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE TO SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR MORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARRIVING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
50-70% CHANCE TO SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR MORE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.
- EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A
COOLDOWN BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. THE
MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY'S FORECAST WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE DRIZZLE
TURNS INTO RAIN. LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND
MUCH OF SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TODAY MOVING GENERALLY
WEST TO EAST AND THIS WILL BRING THE FORCING THAT TRANSITIONS US
FROM DRIZZLE TO RAIN. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE NAM BRINGS
THINGS IN AROUND NOON FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS IS
FASTER THAN THE RAP AND HRRR, AND MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS. THESE
OTHER MODELS BRING THE RAIN IN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD, MOVING WEST AND NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD
BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST TO COVER EASTERN SD. EITHER SCENARIO HAS
PRECIPITATION LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MOVING EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF MORE THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH IS 50-60% EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER, BETWEEN 30 AND 50% WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER TO A LINE BETWEEN EUREKA AND CHAMBERLAIN, AND
LESS THAN 20% ACROSS CENTRAL SD. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER. CHANCE
OF MORE THAN HALF AN INCH IN 24 HOURS BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IS 50-70% BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND PRAIRIE COTEAU/SISSETON
HILLS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE FALLING BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR NEXT
WORK WEEK. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD WILL GUST UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
IFR VSBY/CIGS WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z BEFORE CIGS
AND VSBY FALL AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20
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