148
FXUS63 KABR 062328 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES (~20-30%) FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, IF ANYTHING
AT ALL.
- EXCEPT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
SATURDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST (WED THROUGH
NEXT TUE) WITH 30S AND 40S (OR HIGHER) FOR HIGHS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AT 2 PM CST, SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S. THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS STILL TRYING TO CLIMB UP OUT OF THE 20S. WINDS HAVE A WEST-
COMPONENT TO THEM GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE BAND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION (RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA-BORDER'S EDGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW/SLEET UP ALONG THE MIDDLE TO NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION'S COVERAGE) HAS BECOME, PRETTY MUCH, ALL RAIN AND IS
JUST ABOUT EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA
BEFORE 4 PM CST.
WHILE THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE LOW LEVEL WAA
PATTERN WILL PERSIST. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CWA, SUPPORTED BY THIS NEXT ROUND OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS (CURRENTLY JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA) FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE CWA TONIGHT.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PASSING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST, CLEARING THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY. WEAK TO MODEST
LOW LEVEL CAA, POST-FRONTAL, BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY
(~5-7C OF COOLING AT 925HPA) ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS INCLUDING
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY MORNING, THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF LOW LEVEL CAA HAPPENING DURING THE DAY. THEN, LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION BASICALLY GOES NEUTRAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD AIR PUSH SETS
UP LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE CWA LOOKS TO END UP BEING IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE PUSH-PULL REGION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION.
WITH THE FLOW PATTERN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN, WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, CULMINATING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LARGE, DEEP CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN IOWA AND
WISCONSIN, AND PLACING THIS CWA UNDER MERIDIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAT EVENTUALLY SETTLES INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WAA TO
START BACK INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT IN THE OUT PERIODS, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE CENTER OF DEEPENING UPPER
CIRCULATION TRACKS DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA, AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...VIPOND
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