713
FXUS63 KABR 081314 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
814 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT AND COMBINE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TO CREATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVERLAP AROUND AND EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 806 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BY LOWERING DEW POINTS TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE,
OBSERVATIONS, AND EXPECTATIONS MOVING FORWARD TODAY. THIS CHANGE
DROPPED HUMIDITY ENOUGH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN REACHING RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MILES PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR BROWN AND
SPINK COUNTIES AND EAST, LASTING FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ARE IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. WE HAVE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
WARMER OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR THE DAY.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE TODAY'S ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY AND WITH DRY AIR AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES, FIRES WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD QUICKLY AND BE
DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. DID LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN OVERACHIEVING RECENTLY. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SD ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
CONTINUING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 25% WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS DEWPOINTS MIGHT FALL BELOW WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. QPF OUT OF THESE SHOWERS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH AT ALL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH IT'S COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. ON THE TEMPERATURE SIDE OF THINGS, WE WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE BECOMING WARMER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. NEXT WORK
WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20
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