912  
FXUS63 KABR 062048  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
348 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TO 50-80  
PERCENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. SOME  
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH  
DAKOTA.  
 
- AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER  
PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL  
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL TO SEE MORE SEVERE  
WEATHER.  
 
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 7 DAY FORECAST,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES COULD BUMP BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S  
THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
LEFTOVER CIRRUS FROM THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SD CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES  
THIS AFTERNOON. A FIELD OF CU HAS DEVELOPED IN DAYTIME HEATING,  
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED  
TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. MOSTLY ZONAL MID LEVEL PERSISTS ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING THE REGION  
TO THE EAST AND OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS  
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. SOME PERTURBATION IN THE  
MID LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE CURRENT CU FIELD  
AND POP UP A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD. NOT EXPECTING  
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS TEMPERATURES FALL  
TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.  
 
THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON  
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LEE SIDE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PERSIST TO  
OUR WEST AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND  
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF  
CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR  
FORECAST AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZES TO THE WEST, LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT  
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BE DRAWN FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE  
SYSTEM APPROACHES. SFC DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE  
LOW TO MID 60S BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL TO AN  
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THE AFTERNOON AS MLCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO  
BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. ROBUST 500MB FLOW WILL YIELD FAVORABLE DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD  
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AND  
NORTHEAST SD WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY  
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY WILL  
GIVE OUR AREA A BRIEF DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF  
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE  
REGION BY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS  
EXPECTED BY AT THAT TIME FRAME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS  
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WORK THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.  
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH A 15% AREA  
ACROSS CENTRAL SD. THE BUILDUP TO THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER  
WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL LEAD TO  
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S  
AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF  
CYCLE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY PROMPTED THE  
ADDITION OF PROB30 GROUPS AT KPIR DURING THE MORNING.  
 
 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...VIPOND  
AVIATION...VIPOND  
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