101
FXUS63 KABR 070750
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
250 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. ON MONDAY, HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG FLOATING
AROUND. EXPECT THIS MAY EXPAND A BIT MORE BEFORE SUNRISE THEN
QUICKLY DISSIPATE ALONG WITH ANY FROST AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES
HOLD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND IT PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
IN CENTRAL SD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY,
AS WELL, HELPING TO DRAW IN SEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY, BY TONIGHT, THE HRRR STARTS TO SHOW A RETURN OF SOME
ELEVATED SMOKE TO THE REGION. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS, ACCORDINGLY,
AS FAR IN TIME AS POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON MONDAY,
NEAR SFC SMOKE BEGINS CREEPING INTO AREAS WEST RIVER. WAA AND TEMPS
RAMP UP ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SD.
GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
WEAK LLJ EAST OF THE COTEAU ON MONDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME EVEN WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. MAY NEED TO ADD A POP
MENTION PRIOR TO 0Z, BUT GIVEN LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
MONDAY EVENING, WE FIND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST
OVER THE ROCKIES. IT STAYS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AND STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS US WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS RIDGE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WHICH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL AREN'T IN
AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW. THE EC SHOWS IT BECOMING
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH, THE GFS SHOWS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR STORY
ALTHOUGH THE ANGLE IS LESS EXTREME. THE CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER WITH
THE LOW ACTUALLY MAKING IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
FOR SATURDAY. BUT, NO MATTER THE SOLUTION, IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE
SOME LOW PRESSURE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY AND INCREASED STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AS SOME GULF MOISTURE IS FUNNELED INTO THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT
CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE 20-30% RANGE. TO GO WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORM CHANCES TO 20-
40% SATURDAY, HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CHANCES DECREASE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HRRR SMOKE SHOWS A LARGE CONCENTRATION OF UPPER
LEVEL SMOKE MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME NEAR SURFACE SMOKE POSSIBLY ON
THE WAY FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW MORE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING FG/BR TO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES/BIG SIOUX
RIVER VALLEYS BY SUNRISE, SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF THIS
FOR KABR/KATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ004>011-
016>023-034-036-037.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...20
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