341  
FXUS63 KABR 161128 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING.  
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC BOUNDARY ARE SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES, BUT LATE  
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING IS A CONSERVATIVE GUESS THIS TIME OF YEAR  
FOR INITIATION WITH NO STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT  
HUMID CONDITIONS BUT HIGHS THAT ARE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.  
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 80S BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, IT  
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH  
AROUND 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE  
EVENING PROGRESSES. SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE WITH 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS THE  
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING BY 3Z. THERE'S EVEN DECENT 0-1KM  
HELICITY THROUGH 0Z. IF DISCRETE CELLS DO FORM, THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SEVERE STORMS IS PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING.  
 
SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. BY WED AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW AND  
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS. SURFACE  
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OR TWO OF QUIET WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, A FEW  
MORE WEAK WAVES CROSSING THROUGH WITHIN THE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW  
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW MORE  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH  
MODEST HUMIDITY AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS. TSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD AROUND 0Z AND  
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE,  
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR AND KMBG, WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WISE  
LONG TERM...TMT  
AVIATION...WISE  
 
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