093
FXUS63 KABR 290534 AAD
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH MONDAY ARE 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
- WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO PROGRESSIVELY LESSEN THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE LITTLE MORE
THAN A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE UNLIKELY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION THE REGION. WHILE A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS
OVERHEAD, THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LESSENED AND THE RED FLAG
OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
PORTIONS OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. AN
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW OBSERVATION SITES IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH BUT THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES. THEREFORE THE WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LET TO EXPIRE. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL 7 PM AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA UNTIL 9 PM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
NSSL-WRF WAS PRETTY SPOT-ON IN ITS WIND DEPICTION FOR THE EAST TODAY
WITH 70 MPH PEAK WINDS ALONG THE COTEAU. HWY 14 SOUTH OVERACHIEVED
WITH ITS MIXING COMPONENT AS EVIDENCED BY MOST OF THE OBS IN HAND
AND LYMAN COUNTY WHICH ARE STILL GUSTING OVER 50 MPH. STILL EXPECT
WINDS TO FAIRLY QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z WHEN THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRES.
LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS OF SFC DUST CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF DUST
CONCENTRATING INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND EAST CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY, SO THINK
HAZY SKIES ARE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE SUSPENDED
DUST MOVING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO SD/NE ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
MT/ND CONCURRENTLY HELPS TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE, BUT ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIP REMAINS NORTH OF THIS CWA. CURRENT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW KEEPS
WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING WHEN BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS KICK UP BEHIND THE LOW WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE
DISJOINTED NATURE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS/WARMEST TEMPS/DRIEST AIR
MAY KEEP THE REGION OUT OF THE WORST OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH MONDAY FALL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS NEXT 24 HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER IN THE AREA TODAY, LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...VIPOND
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