442
FXUS63 KABR 131315 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
815 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING TO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT MOST.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OVER THAT AREA,
THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH
THIS WEEK, MAINLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AREAS THAT DON'T GET TO FREEZING MAY STILL SEE FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 814 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IN GENERAL, RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT, AND ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THE MOST. ANOTHER ROUND COMES IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE ABERDEEN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE ON THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM, MEANING THAT RAIN WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS TIME A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR
AREAS THAT SEE RAIN, BUT STILL ONLY ABOUT A 20-50% CHANCE TO SEE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL JUST BELOW
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS LEFT TO BE ANSWERED
AS TO EXACTLY HOW COLD IT WILL GET. SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT
LOWS GET TO FREEZING WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST REFS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME CLEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST OVER THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. FURTHER EAST CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HANG ON A BIT LONGER, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 32
DEGREES. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY, WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER, IN NO SMALL PART DUE TO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED,
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT AND ONCE AGAIN SEE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DROP BELOW
FREEZING. CHANCES TO FREEZE WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER (~40-70%), BUT NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA HAS A 10% CHANCE OR GREATER TO SEE LOW BELOW 32 DEGREES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
PASSING TO THE NORTH. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A
RESULT. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
(WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MILES PER HOUR) PEAK AT 30-50% OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, SO CAN'T RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY. THESE WIND SPEEDS CAN OFTEN BE
UNDERDONE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMPONENT OF THAT BIAS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PAST SITUATIONS
WHERE THE NBM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERESTIMATED THE WIND GUSTS.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT STRENGTH, THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO HIGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION. BOTH 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES (~5820DM
AND 15-18 DEGREES CELSIUS RESPECTIVELY) WILL BE OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR MID-OCTOBER, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE RIDGE IS IN
PLACE THERE WILL BE LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, SO EXPECT A
DRY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT AREAL
COVERAGE ON SATELLITE IS LESS COMPARED TO THE ISSUANCE OF THE
06Z TAFS. THAT SAID, STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SAID CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY BEFORE TRENDING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO
WATCHING AN AREA OF -SHRA MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE KMBG REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH PERHAPS VSBY DOWN TO AROUND 6SM AT TIMES.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL COVERAGE. THAT SAID, VSBY
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR IN ANY -SHRA.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT
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