582  
FXUS63 KABR 021126 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
526 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
A CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS QUICKLY APPROACHING, WITH  
FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. AT 500MB WE CONTINUE TO BE IN  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A WAVE SET UP OVER EASTERN WA/NORTHERN  
ID/ALBERTA AND A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST  
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT IS ALREADY OVERHEAD. BY 12Z THE LOW WILL ALREADY  
STRETCH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL  
MN, WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 12Z SATURDAY.  
STRONG WINDS WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE  
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM, OWNING TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN  
THE 998MB LOW AND BUILDING 1030MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. MIXING  
UP TO AROUND 850MB TODAY AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE, ALONG  
WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEARING 40 TO  
50 MPH. SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND GUSTS ARE FIGURED FOR OUR WEST CENTRAL  
MN COUNTIES, AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT THAT THE SISSETON  
HILLS WILL RECEIVE.  
 
WHERE SNOW FALLS, AND AT WHAT RATE WILL BE IMPORTANT TODAY, AS THE  
COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN  
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL WISE, WHILE WE WILL  
BE IN THE DGZ, THE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE  
PRISTINE FLAKES. THIS TYPICALLY LIMITS OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CAM  
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY REASONABLE OF THEIR PROGRESSION OF  
VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 1SM OR LESS OVER CORSON COUNTY BY 16Z  
SHIFTING EAST TO MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS DOWN THROUGH STANLEY BY 19Z,  
BROWN/MARSHALL THROUGH SPINK BY 21Z, BEFORE STAYING MAINLY AT OR  
ABOVE 1SM EAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR LATEST THINKING, WHERE  
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM MID  
MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FALLING  
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. TOTAL  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING  
AS COLDER AIR ALLOWS SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE  
DAY FROM 10:1 TO AROUND 25:1. LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER FAR  
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.  
 
HEADLINE WISE, WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY BUT CHANGE THE WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO A WIND  
ADVISORY, GIVEN MORE IMPACTS FROM THE WINDS AND LESS FROM THE  
FALLING SNOW. TIMING HAS ALSO BEEN CHANGED SLIGHTLY, TO BETTER ALIGN  
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND EXITING SNOW. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY,  
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF  
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION  
TO A WIND ADVISORY AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ENDS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND  
ABOVE ZERO BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE  
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN NE AND KS BY 06Z SATURDAY,  
AND SINK OVER KS BY DAYBREAK WHILE PUSHING A RIDGE OVER OUR FORECAST  
AREA. WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN SATURDAY AS THE  
RIDGE EDGES INTO MN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40  
DEGREES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, TO THE 20S OVER  
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
OVERALL, THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE  
EXPECTED LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THAT PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD  
CONSIST OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND  
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER  
STATES, FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO COLDER  
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF  
NEXT WEEK, BOOKENDED WITH MILDER AIR BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE  
ARCTIC INTRUSION. NBM DATA STILL SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL  
DISAGREEMENT IN TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT IT STILL SHOULD AVERAGE OUT  
BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE  
PERIOD AS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC  
FLOW. HOWEVER, MODEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ABOUND, SO  
CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FORECAST IS LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING  
ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW. DURING PERIODS OF SNOW, THE WIND WILL  
COMBINE WITH THE SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOWERED  
VSBYS. THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT TOWARD EVENING.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS  
EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-019.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING  
FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS  
EVENING FOR SDZ006-018.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING  
FOR SDZ020>023.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR  
SDZ033>037-045-048-051.  
 
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS  
EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KF  
LONG TERM...TDK  
AVIATION...TDK  
 
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