711
FXUS63 KABR 101750 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1" OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
- 20% CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY, THEN A 30-50% CHANCE OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH WITH BOTH EVENTS, BUT WITH THE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENT, THE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH IS 40-70 PERCENT RIGHT NOW THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 30S AND
40S, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME 50S FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER, IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH MAYBE SOME LOW
40S POSSIBLE WEST RIVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. DID
ADD MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE BAND OF SNOW
MOVING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK ALOFT RIDING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROGRESSING OFF
TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL IN SOME MODELS THAT THE SNOW
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A NEAR-SURFACE DRY LAYER, POTENTIALLY
LIMITING HOW MUCH WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
MORNING. THE PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SATURATE LEADING TO
SNOW FALLING AT THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOST OF
THE GROWTH IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE DGZ, MEANING THAT THE EXPECTATION
WILL BE FOR SLRS AROUND 15:1 OR HIGHER. STILL LOOKING AT UP TO AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AT MOST (AROUND A 10% CHANCE), BUT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE HALF AND INCH IN ACCUMULATIONS (30%
CHANCE).
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO PROVIDE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO THE REGION, PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BACK DOWN CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE
PRESENT TODAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. AT PEAK, GUSTS WILL REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MILES PER
HOUR IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MINOR ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ON THE
EASTERN END OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN AND ALLOW FOR A WARMER AIRMASS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS PUSH IN. AROUND A 20 DECAMETER HEIGHT RISE AT 500MB
(AND LAYERS ABOVE THAT) IS EXPECTED OVER THE 24 HOURS SPANNING 18Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY, SUPPORTING A INCREASE IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE MID-JANUARY NORMALS. THE
ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE SUNDAY IS THE CONTINUATION OF SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON, UP TO ROUGHLY 30 MILES PER HOUR AT
PEAK. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER ENHANCEMENT OF GUSTS ON THE
DOWNSLOPE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, GIVEN THE SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE
DIRECTION OF FLOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN 24 HOURS. OVERALL, STILL SEEING THE PERIOD
DOMINATED BY WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HUDSON BAY UPPER
LEVEL TROFFING/CLOSED LOW, WITH EACH MODEL CAMP MAINTAINING SLIGHT
VARIATIONS ON THAT THEME. OVER THIS CWA, STEERING FLOW RANGES FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO NEARLY MERIDIONAL (FROM THE NORTH). MULTIPLE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES/CLIPPERS ARE PROGGED IN ALL OF THE GSM'S AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES TO DIVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACK OF THE WESTERN
CONUS UPPER RIDGE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER
ACTIVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOK PRETTY WARM (PER DETERMINISTIC GSM'S LOW LEVEL WAA
THERMAL PROGS AND ENS'S EFI-SHIFT OF TAILS ENSEMBLE OUTPUT). WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURE RECORDS (RECORD HIGH LOW
TEMPERATURES) TUESDAY MORNING, AS LOW TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
OUT ON TUESDAY COULD ESTABLISH NEW RECORDS IN SOME PLACES. THE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT HERE IS THAT MODELS BACK-DOOR ARCTIC COLD AIR INTO
THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD END UP PUTTING
TUESDAY'S "LOW TEMPERATURE" READINGS IN A NON-TRADITIONAL TIMEFRAME
BETWEEN 6 PM TUESDAY AND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY, INSTEAD OF BETWEEN 3 AM
TUESDAY AND 9 AM TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD WIPE OUT THE POTENTIALLY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM LOW VALUES TUESDAY MORNING. CLEAR AS MUD?
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IN QPF AMOUNTS, FOR THE MOMENT, WITH THE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM OVER THIS CWA (15 TO
30 PERCENT POPS). THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORECAST,
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES, FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY (25-50 PERCENT POPS). STILL SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTIONS TO UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW'S AMPLIFICATION FROM
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AT 500HPA AS THEY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA, TRACKING DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, MINNESOTA AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING SAID TIME PERIODS. LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN P-TYPE, INITIALLY, EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
BUT, BY TUESDAY NIGHT, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CAA
HAPPENS SUCH THAT REMAINING/LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE
TRANSITIONING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW P-TYPE. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH IS 40-80 PERCENT, WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHOWING UP OVER THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COLD AIR THAT MOVES IN MID-WEEK,
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAKE P-TYPE FOR THE SYSTEM DAY 5/6 EITHER A
SHORT-LIVE PERIOD OF RAIN POTENTIAL TRANSITIONING QUICKLY TO SNOW OR
JUST STARTING OUT AS SNOW (AFTER WET-BULBING/SATURATION OF THE
COLUMN). THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES/TRENDS IN
THE COMING DAYS. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH
ARE BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG/WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KPIR TERMINAL. HIGH
END MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AND REMAINING THERE THE REST OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KABR/KATY/KMBG
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING AND THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR
ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KMBG MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...VIPOND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page