542
FXUS63 KABR 010120 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
820 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
THE BAND OF SNOW IS FINALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER
LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY
MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AROUND KABR AND THAT
WILL TRANSLATE ELSEWHERE AS THE WINDS ALSO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. MAY
FIDDLE A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
ALLOWED ICE STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. ALL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS THAN INITIALLY FORECAST.
YET, SIMULTANEOUSLY, THEY HAVE OVER ACHIEVED ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT PRECIP
TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND ACCUMULATE WITH .5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
RATES ACROSS THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREFORE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STILL THERE,
DECIDED NOT TO TOUCH HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY,
HOWEVER, A SHARP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ANYWHERE NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. THIS WAS A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GUIDANCE
INDICATED BANDING MAY BE NARROW OR SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
SO FAR, THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FOCUSED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE 700 MB
LOW. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS FOCUS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD MORE TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE 500 MB LOW. STILL EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES THIS
EVENING FROM PIERRE TO WHEATON ON TOP OF WHATEVER FALLS THIS
AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND WINDS WILL EXIT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS FRESH SNOW PACK WITH SOME
LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES WHERE MUCH LESS
SNOW FELL TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
WILL HAVE SOME FAIRLY MILD AIR OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. INHERITED NBM WINDS LOOKED
A BIT TOO STRONG ON SUNDAY AFTER LOOKING AT THE LACK OF GOOD MIXING
ON SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE, LOWERED WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO NBM10. THE
DEEP SNOW COVER WILL DEFINITELY PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING FULL
POTENTIAL, BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS. PROBS FOR 6+"
AND 12+" ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND ACTUALLY AGREE RATHER WELL IN PLACEMENT
RIGHT OVER THE CWA. PROBS FOR 6+" ARE OVER 70 PERCENT NOW, AND EVEN
SHOWING 30-50 PERCENT 24-HR PROBS FOR 12+". WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS, BUT IT'S CERTAINLY STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A VERY IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY
CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSURING THAT THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IS
GOING NOWHERE FAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM KPIR TO KABR WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING UNTIL THE BAND DISSIPATE
BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR SDZ008-019>023.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ005.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR SDZ006-007-011-018.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR SDZ010-016-017-036-
037.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ033>035-045-048-051.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK
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