009
FXUS63 KABR 172339 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
539 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
THE MODELS AND ALL ENSEMBLES WERE ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW
TO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A
TREND FOR SNOW TO FALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE LATEST
RUN ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN QPF. THEREFORE, WITH GOOD LIFT IN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION, EXPECT THE SNOW TO SPREAD QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING BUT SHOULD PUT OUT SOME DECENT
SNOWFALL RATES FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THEREFORE,
INCREASED SNOWFALL SOME ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVED IT FARTHER
NORTH. WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT, ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
PART OF CENTRAL SD, AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH OR SO ON FRIDAY WILL BLOW AROUND
THE LOW WATER EQUIVALENT/FLUFFY SNOW CAUSING LOWER VISIBILITIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
THE PERIOD OPENS UP WITH A DEPARTING SNOW SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. INCOMING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO MOVE UPWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT, SATURDAY WILL START OUT SUBZERO FOR MOST; TEENS BELOW ZERO
FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. WIND SPEEDS WON'T BE OUT OF
HAND DURING THIS TIME, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW, POSSIBLY COLDER ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO
KEEP IN EYE ON IN FUTURE FORECAST ITERATIONS IF ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE
IS NEEDED OR NOT.
A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AND DRAW IN SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAINLY AFFECT LOCALES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN TIER. MOSTLY
MOISTURE STARVED, THIS WAVE DOESN'T LOOK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE WILL BE ONGOING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS ONE SYSTEMS DIVES WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND A WEAKER ONE WORKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD AS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TO KEEP
READINGS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY FRIDAY. VSBYS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES WITH
THE SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. VSBYS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ009-010-015>017-033>035-
045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR SDZ006-
011-019>023.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR SDZ018-036-037-048-051.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...PARKIN
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