386
FXUS63 KABR 220539 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL
MN ON SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WITH STRONG ATMOSPHERIC CAP IN PLACE. HAIL
AROUND QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD
AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT A
TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR SISSETON, TO JUST SOUTH OF
ABERDEEN (STILL VISIBLE ON RADAR), THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO A
SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR PIERRE. STILL PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO
110 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA. WILL THEREFORE
LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 02Z
THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE SOME FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOP IN THE
SISSETON/WHEATON AREAS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT STRUGGLING TO SHOW ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE. 700MB TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA STILL RANGE FROM +15C TO AS HIGH AS +18C. OVERNIGHT,
HREF ENSEMBLE PAINTBALL (>40DBZ) SHOWS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20%) POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST SD. INCLUDED 20% CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.
FOR SUNDAY, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE HEAT ADVISORY FROM
BROWN/SPINK EASTWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS APPARENT T GRIDS
FLIRT WITH OR REACH CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH, IT'S A BIT
TRICKIER TOMORROW AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DOES WORK IN POST-
FRONTAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD PROBABLY TAKE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ADVISORY BACK OUT OF CRITERIA. AS FOR CONVECTION, STILL
HAVING ISSUES WITH CAPPING AT LEAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. BUT, WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATER IN THE DAY, WE DO START TO
SEE MID-LEVEL TEMPS COOL AND BY 00Z 700MB TEMPS RANGE FROM +9C TO
+13C ACROSS THE CWA. IT WOULD STILL APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WOULD BE EVENING, LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OR EVEN IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ALSO BETTER ASCENT. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA, IT WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN
BREAK THE CAP DOWN BY EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS IS A BIG
QUESTION MARK AS WELL. THAT SAID, ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A
HIGH SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER POSSIBLE, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF +10C
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 70S ON MONDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS ALSO DROPPING QUITE A BIT LOWER INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
SO, THE MUGGINESS WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD AGAIN INTO
NORTHERN NE. A WEAK WAVE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND WE
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GEFS/GEPS/ENS REVEAL
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL MAY SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD
INTO SOUTHERN MN. GRAND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.50IN
PRECIP IN 24 HOURS ENDING 7PM WEDNESDAY IS AS HIGH AS 70 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KATY EARLY THIS MORNING, THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL JET ANTICIPATED TO KICK IN. LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE KATY AREA AND AMEND THE FORECAST IF
WARRANTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY INITIALLY, BUT AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION; DURING THE MORNING AT KPIR/KMBG AND LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AT KABR/KATY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMBG; CLOSER TO 12Z AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...20/VIPOND
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