900  
FXUS63 KABR 250825  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
225 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER REGION  
TODAY. COOLER TODAY BUT WARMING UP AGAIN FOR MONDAY WITH WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
- A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING  
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 50  
MPH, AND LIGHT SNOW. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE LIGHT (ONLY A 20-45 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1" OF SNOW OR MORE),  
SNOW FALLING ON WARMER ROADS MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
 
 
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
 
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION FOR TODAY. AN H5  
JETLET DOES PUSH ACROSS ND AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE, WITH  
A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN. CAMS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT  
PROGGING THIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING  
ALONG THE BORDER REGION. CLOUDS AND A BIT COLDER AIRMASS DO SETTLE  
OVER THE REGION TODAY, AND THUS HIGHS WILL BE COOLER VS YESTERDAY,  
BUT HIGHS MAY BE TRICKY GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF PREDICTED CLOUDINESS  
THROUGH THE DAY. DIDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM INHERITED FORECAST, OR  
NBM FOR THAT MATTER. MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER TODAY TOO.  
MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN MILDER AIR TO THE REGION, WITH H85 TEMPS  
PUSHING +10C. MIXING DEPTHS PER SOUNDINGS DON'T LOOK ESPECIALLY  
DEEP, BUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL EXPECT MANY HIGHS IN THE  
60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
 
STILL ON TRACK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A 40+  
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE  
CLUSTERS ARE COMING TOGETHER BETTER WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE  
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BE OVER THE PARTS  
OF THE WESTERN CONUS/ROCKIES ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST  
ACROSS CANADA/ND BORDER WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PUSHING  
EAST/SOUTHEAST. DOWN AT 850MB, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST  
ACROSS CANADA, ALONG WITH ITS TROUGH, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH  
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA BY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO BE OVER  
MN/ONTARIO BORDER MONDAY EVENING AS THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT  
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO  
OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW DIPS SOUTH OVER  
MN/WI BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY.  
 
FIRST LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL BE A NON DIURNAL TREND  
AS OUR HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND LOWS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
AT 06Z TUESDAY, MODELS AND NBM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE  
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPS AHEAD OF IT  
WILL BE WELL IN THE 30S/40S. BY 12Z, NBM TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO  
THE TEENS AND 20S POST FRONT! BY 18Z, ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE  
TEENS! JUST TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE, EC INDICATES AT 06Z TUESDAY,  
CAA OF -11C TO -25C/12 HRS AT 925MB AND UP TO -34C/12 HRS AT 850MB!  
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -18C AND THIS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE  
PER CLIMO (LOWER 10TH PERCENT)! AS AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND  
THE SYSTEM, TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS  
WITH SOME AREAS THAT COULD HIT A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS THE  
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS IN.  
 
PRECIPITATION WISE, ENSEMBLES OVERALL SHOW THE NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF PRECIP WITH THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE  
NORTHWESTERN CWA MONDAY EVENING-MIDNIGHT. GEFS IS STILL THE SLOWEST  
ON THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE AS IT PUSHES  
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY TUESDAY  
EVENING WITH POPS ON THE LEADING EDGE AROUND 20% UP TO 55% IN THE  
BRUNT OF IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. PTYPE COULD BE SOME RAIN  
VERY EARLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CWA BUT WILL QUICKLY BE ALL SNOW AS  
THE COLD AIR OVERRUNS THE SYSTEM FAST AND QUICKLY COOLS THE COLUMN.  
SINCE MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUFKIT  
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA DO SHOW A LAG IN THE COLUMN BECOMING  
SATURATED AFTER IT COOLS, HELPING TO LIMIT QPF. ALSO, THERE SEEMS TO  
BE A SPLIT IN THE FORCING WITH THE STRONGER FORCING TO OUR  
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND TO OUR SOUTHWEST, SO THIS HELPS LIMIT QPF. NBM  
PROB OF QPF>0.10" FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY RANGES FROM 20-45%,  
HIGHEST ALONG ND/SD BORDER AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN SD. PROB OF 1"  
OF SNOW FOR THIS SAME TIME PERIOD IS 50% OR LESS, HIGHEST AGAIN  
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. PROB OF 2" IS 35% OR LESS ACROSS THE CWA. WE  
WILL WATCH OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS 800-750MB  
INDICATES SOME FGEN THAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER FORCING=HIGHER QPF IN  
THIS AREA. IN AREAS WITH THE FALLING SNOW/FLASH FREEZE COULD MAKE  
TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW AS THIS  
STRONG CAA WILL LEAD WIND GUSTS OF 40-50+MPH WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS  
MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH THE STRONGEST CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE WEST  
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
OTHERWISE, DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (15-40% POPS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN). TEMPS  
WILL REBOUND IN THE 50S/60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE MOVES  
OVERHEAD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TDK  
LONG TERM...MMM  
AVIATION...KF  
 
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