582
FXUS63 KABR 021126 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
526 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
A CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS QUICKLY APPROACHING, WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. AT 500MB WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A WAVE SET UP OVER EASTERN WA/NORTHERN
ID/ALBERTA AND A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT IS ALREADY OVERHEAD. BY 12Z THE LOW WILL ALREADY
STRETCH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL
MN, WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 12Z SATURDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM, OWNING TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE 998MB LOW AND BUILDING 1030MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. MIXING
UP TO AROUND 850MB TODAY AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE, ALONG
WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEARING 40 TO
50 MPH. SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND GUSTS ARE FIGURED FOR OUR WEST CENTRAL
MN COUNTIES, AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT THAT THE SISSETON
HILLS WILL RECEIVE.
WHERE SNOW FALLS, AND AT WHAT RATE WILL BE IMPORTANT TODAY, AS THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL WISE, WHILE WE WILL
BE IN THE DGZ, THE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE
PRISTINE FLAKES. THIS TYPICALLY LIMITS OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CAM
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY REASONABLE OF THEIR PROGRESSION OF
VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 1SM OR LESS OVER CORSON COUNTY BY 16Z
SHIFTING EAST TO MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS DOWN THROUGH STANLEY BY 19Z,
BROWN/MARSHALL THROUGH SPINK BY 21Z, BEFORE STAYING MAINLY AT OR
ABOVE 1SM EAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR LATEST THINKING, WHERE
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FALLING
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING
AS COLDER AIR ALLOWS SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY FROM 10:1 TO AROUND 25:1. LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
HEADLINE WISE, WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY BUT CHANGE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO A WIND
ADVISORY, GIVEN MORE IMPACTS FROM THE WINDS AND LESS FROM THE
FALLING SNOW. TIMING HAS ALSO BEEN CHANGED SLIGHTLY, TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND EXITING SNOW. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY,
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION
TO A WIND ADVISORY AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND
ABOVE ZERO BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN NE AND KS BY 06Z SATURDAY,
AND SINK OVER KS BY DAYBREAK WHILE PUSHING A RIDGE OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA. WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE EDGES INTO MN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, TO THE 20S OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
OVERALL, THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
EXPECTED LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THAT PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD
CONSIST OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES, FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BOOKENDED WITH MILDER AIR BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
ARCTIC INTRUSION. NBM DATA STILL SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT IT STILL SHOULD AVERAGE OUT
BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC
FLOW. HOWEVER, MODEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ABOUND, SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FORECAST IS LOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW. DURING PERIODS OF SNOW, THE WIND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOWERED
VSBYS. THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT TOWARD EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ006-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ020>023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ033>037-045-048-051.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
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