931  
FXUS63 KABR 180858  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
358 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER SOUTH  
CENTRAL SD TONIGHT, AND END OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD FRIDAY MORNING,  
AND MOST OF NORTHEASTERN SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA WILL RESULT IN  
PONDING WATER, AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS  
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.  
 
- THERE IS ONLY AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SD  
AND WEST CENTRAL MN INTO FRIDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER (1" HAIL OR  
LARGER OR DAMAGING WINDS) IS EXPECTED.  
 
- A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND  
WEST CENTRAL MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
A 500MB LOW IS SET UP FROM EASTERN MT THROUGH SD AND NORTHERN NE.  
THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE TO ND/NORTHEASTERN SD/MN BY  
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND BE REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY THROUGH  
DIVING IN FROM CANADA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANY ZONAL FLOW OR  
RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH, THE  
NEXT 500MB LOW LOOKS TO CROSS MT MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDE ACROSS  
SD/NE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SURGING/DEEPENING  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY. INCREASED UNCERTAINTY  
SLIDES IN BY WEDNESDAY ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE LOW WILL BE TO OUR  
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND JUST HOW QUICKLY RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY.  
OVERALL THOUGH, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES FOR OUR AREA LOOK  
MINIMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY.  
 
LOOKING AT CURRENT CONDITIONS, THE 08Z SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWED  
THE LOW OVER OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, CENTERED OVER  
K9V9/CHAMBERLAIN. A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL  
AROUND THE LOW, WITH THE MOST STEADY RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW.  
THIS IS WHERE (MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EUREKA THROUGH  
IPSWICH, REDFIELD, AND CLARK) RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE  
FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED  
SOUTH OF PIR AT THE BAD RIVER AND FORT PIERRE NATIONAL GRASSLANDS.  
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ROTATING BANDS OF RAIN FOR AREAS OF  
THAT NEAR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND RISING AREA RIVERS. THE AREA OF  
MOST CONCERN REMAINS WEST-SOUTH OF PIR. THE BAD RIVER AT FORT PIERRE  
CONTINUES TO RISE, AND IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT NEAR TO ABOVE FLOOD  
STATE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS  
REMAIN POSSIBLE, THE COVERAGE IS LIMITED AND WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED  
OVER EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND SET UP ACROSS THE SD/MN  
BORDER BY 06Z FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN 18-21Z  
FRIDAY AND SLIDING NORTH ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER ON SATURDAY. WHILE  
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD BY LATE FRIDAY, MOISTURE AROUND  
THE SURFACE SFC-500MB TROUGH WILL KEEP OFF AND ON 15-25% CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A FEW  
READINGS IN THE LOW 80S OVER CENTRAL SD ON SUNDAY. AS NOTED IN THE  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN DUE TO THE  
LIGHTER WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE TRUE  
EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THIS MORNING, FRIDAY MORNING OVER  
EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE ALSO INDICATIONS (ECMWF ENS  
VISIBILITY METEOGRAM) OF ADDITIONAL FOG EACH MORNING SATURDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE  
AROUND 20% OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR  
VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS, TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOWER VISBY  
DUE TO FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD LOOK FOR  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...06  
AVIATION...07  
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