578
FXUS63 KABR 312328 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADA WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR SURFACE WILDFIRE SMOKE IS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN
3 MILES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA, AND COULD POTENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(~72-77F IS NORMAL RIGHT NOW) HEADING INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MARKS
THE BEGINNING OF A COOLDOWN THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
NOTICEABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK AT 40 TO 80% MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT OR OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
IS 40 TO 80%, HIGHEST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREAT
INCLUDES LARGE HAIL (1"+) AND DAMAGING WINDS (60 MPH+)
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
OTHER THAN PERIODIC TWEAKS TO VISIBILITY IN SMOKE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
AT 2 PM CDT, IT IS SMOKY OUTSIDE. WILDFIRE SMOKE, BOTH ALOFT AND
NEAR THE SURFACE, IS UPON THE REGION. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN
VISIBILITY DOWN TO ONE MILE (ARGUABLY EVENLY LOWER THAN THAT) AT
TIMES. BASED OFF SHORT-RANGE RAPID UPDATE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SMOKE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE THERE IS ANY SEMBLANCE
OF IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AND, EVEN THEN,
THE VISIBILITY MAY NOT FULLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO MONDAY'S COLD FROPA.
ASIDE FROM THE NEARLY OPAQUE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT, SKIES ARE SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S. SOME AREAS WILL ACHIEVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BY THE END OF THE DAY. BEHIND THE
SURFACE WIND-SHIFT, THAT ACCOMPANIED THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHT'S
UPPER CIRCULATION, 5 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH HAVE HAPPENED ACROSS THE CWA.
THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
WHAT IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW, SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING (ALBEIT SOMEWHAT MUTED BY SMOKE) TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BUT, FAST ON IT'S HEELS IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTER OF NORTH AMERICA
MONDAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THERE COULD BE
SOME SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLE QPF CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT/SUPPORT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THAT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MEASURE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS
A 40-80% PROBABILITY OF 0.25IN OR MORE OF RAINFALL HAPPENING ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PIERRE TO LONG LAKE BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY
AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE OTHER BACK-BURNER CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE WILL ACCOMPANY
MONDAY'S FROPA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/BAGGINESS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN OVER THE NATION'S MID-SECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK DUE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED TO HAPPEN OVER BOTH CONUS COASTS
(MORESO OVER THE WEST COAST). THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE, POTENTIALLY ACTIVE, PATTERN FOR SHORTWAVES SWEEPING
THROUGH IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AFTER MONDAY'S FROPA,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T SHOW UP IN EARNEST, UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY (~25-45% CHANCE) WHEN MODELS DEPICT THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE CAPABLE OF DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION.
BEHIND THE FROPA, NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH WILL PROMOTE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION,
SIGNALING THE START OF A COOLING TREND THAT MODELS CAN'T SEEM TO
NAIL DOWN, IN TERMS OF LONGEVITY. ORIGINALLY, COOLER TEMPERATURES
WERE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT. BUT, IT'S
POSSIBLE, UNDER THIS BROAD/BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS, THAT
MODERATION TO WARMER CONDITIONS MAY BE PUT ON HOLD FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
IFR VSBY IN SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED SMOKE IS THICK
ENOUGH THIS EVENING IN AREAS TO BECOME AN OBSTRUCTIVE CEILING
FROM 3100 FT TO 4000 FT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...20
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