001
FXUS63 KABR 071134 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORM (10-20%) LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXTENDS INTO JONES AND LYMAN
COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS ARE FOR HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
- SMOKE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THE SMOKE TO GET TO THE
SURFACE.
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE (35-55%) IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED STORMS IS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN, AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE,
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. COLDER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY AND WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE UPPER-LEVELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT FROM
THE FIRES OUT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, WITH VERY LITTLE
MIXING, THIS SMOKE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND ONLY CREATE
HAZY SKIES.
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE OVER
SD IN THE COMING DAYS. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE SOME ENERGY
THAT COULD HELP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD, AND WILL HELP WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN
TIMING AND HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE DUE TO THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WHERE/WHEN THE MODELS BRING SOME
MOISTURE UP INTO CENTRAL SD. WITH THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS AS
WELL AS CONCERNS ABOUT IF, WHEN, AND WHERE THERE WILL BE MOISTURE,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THERE IS A MARGINAL
RICK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS OF HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OCCUR IS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
SOME MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO SD ALOFT SUNDAY. THAT, IN COMBINATION
WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY FROM THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES, WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS
STILL VARY THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH
LOWERS CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THIS LOWER CONFIDENCE, THERE IS
STILL A 35-55% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
OTHER THAN SOME POST COLD FRONTAL MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING/MOVING OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA (KATY) FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10
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