552
FXUS63 KABR 262123
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
323 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN/EASTERN SD & WEST CENTRAL MN).
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD CREATE POCKETS OF FREEZING FOG
WITH ICY ROADS. VISIBILITY COULD REACH ONE-QUARTER MILE OR
LESS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS SATURDAY, BEFORE FALLING MAINLY INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL GUST
AROUND 40 TO 55 MPH LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW (LESS THAN AN INCH) MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
STILL DEALING WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA AND HAVE BEEN MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES MUCH OF THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR LONGER DURATION DENSE FOG. LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, MODELS INDICATE MORE FOG/STRATUS AFFECTING AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY FOR LOW
VISIBILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA, BUT SOMETHING TO CERTAINLY WATCH
FOR. CONTINUED WITH FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY. UNSURE OF HEADLINE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MORE
SURFACE, EVENTUALLY.
WITH THE QUESTIONS AS TO AREAL EXTENT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT, THIS
BRINGS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT/SATURDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG PART. THAT SAID, A FAIRLY MILD AIR
MASS WILL BE OVERHEAD, WITH FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 30S
AND 40S FOR MOST AREAS, EVEN 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.
ALTHOUGH, ANY AREAS OF STRATUS THAT LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY MAY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM HIGHS.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS/LIGHT SNOW THAT ACCOMPANY THE ONSET OF THE CHANGING AIR MASS.
925MB TEMPS FROM +5C TO +10C OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
QUICKLY DROP OFF TO -10C TO -15C BY 18Z SUNDAY. SO, AFTER MILD
READINGS IN THE 30S, 40S, AND EVEN 50S ON SATURDAY, TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. COLDEST APPARENT
T FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS READINGS
RANGING FROM -15 TO -20 ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL SD, SO IT
APPEARS WE'RE STILL "WARM" ENOUGH TO STAY OUT OF HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT. AS FOR WINDS, THE TIME PERIOD FOR STRONGEST GUSTS APPEARS TO
BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS LIKELY EXCEEDING 45
MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. NBM PROBABILITY FOR 55+ MPH WINDS IS
GENERALLY 30-50% ACROSS CENTRAL SD. MAY BE ON THE PATH FOR HEADLINES
CONCERNING WIND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE AN AREA OF SNOWFALL (LESS THAN AN INCH) MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. POPS ARE
GENERALLY 30-40% FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THESE NUMBERS COME UP SLIGHTLY.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK, IT APPEARS ANOTHER WARM UP ARRIVES
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION POTENTIALLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR PENETRATES,
AND 25-75TH NBM TEMPS REVEAL JUST THIS AS THEY SHOW ABOUT A 20
DEGREE SPREAD FROM HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS, TO AS WARM AS
THE 20S/30S. BUT IT WOULD APPEAR ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST OF SOME
DEGREE IS POTENTIALLY HEADING OUR WAY FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
KPIR/KATY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WHILE KMBG/KABR WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME BR (KMBG) AND IFR CIGS.
EARLY ON THESE CIGS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING KMBG, BUT ARE NEARBY KABR
AND A BIT UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON OR NOT.
REGARDLESS, INDICATIONS POINT TO A RETURN OF FG/BR OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH IFR CIGS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-
011.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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