255
FXUS63 KABR 030000
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
700 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20-35% CHANCE OF WINDS GUSTING OVER 45 MPH
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF PIERRE THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 35 TO NEAR 50 MPH. THE LATEST TRENDS OVER THE LAST 20 MINUTES
IS A WEAKENING TREND, AND WE EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FEW
UPDATES ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS
PRODUCING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NBM PROBABILITY OF SEEING GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH IS AROUND 50
PERCENT. KABR HAS EXCEEDED 40 MPH TODAY. BECAUSE THE WINDS ARE
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, HAVE BLENDED IN SOME OF THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE REST OF TODAY, AND ACTUALLY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL ND, WITH A FEW CAMS SUGGESTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PCPN OVER EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NUNAVUT, NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS MOVING INTO
THE CWA AFTER 3Z MONDAY. HALF KM WINDS OFF THE GFS IS 25 TO 40
KNOTS, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN.
AGAIN, BLENDED SOME NBM 90TH INTO THE WIND GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA EARLIER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LATEST NBM MAXT ON
MONDAY SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY OFFSET THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO LIMIT
THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS OF NOW, AFTERNOON RH VALUES
ARE IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH THE NBM
SHOWING A 15 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. THESE READINGS
ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARMER AIR
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...06
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