317
FXUS63 KABR 162325 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM CENTRAL SD
TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
SD INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN, AND OVER CENTRAL SD
MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE FAIRLY WIDE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THAT ARE ONGOING FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY WEST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN REALLY HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS LIKELY NOT TO UNTIL WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES. AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE IS A STRONG BELT OF SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED MORE OR LESS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SD AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS STEADY STATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SET UP WILL LEAD TO A 50-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SD STRETCHING EAST INTO PARTS OF OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN ACTION ARRIVES AFTER
SUNSET. LIKE LAST NIGHT, HIGH BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN WY/WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST INTO A MORE
MOISTURE RICH AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY WITH TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SD BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO
SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX AS IT TRACKS FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER OR LARGER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD FOR A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE PRE/POST
DAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY BEFORE EXITING OUT OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
PERHAPS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH COMING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SD MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS VIRTUALLY
ALL THE SAME THERMODYNAMIC INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A MIX OF
MORE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A WIND GUST THREAT BY EVENING IN ANY STORM
CLUSTERS OR MCSS THAT DEVELOP. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS
EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY IF ANY
SUPERCELLS FORM NEAR THIS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD OVER THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. FOG AND STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AT ALL
SITES TOWARD MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page