486  
FXUS63 KABR 240608 AAC  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
108 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND  
IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. THE BAND OF RAIN MAY PUSH AS  
FAR NORTHWARD AS HIGHWAY 212 TONIGHT. WITH SNOW MELT TODAY, ALONG  
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.  
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING IS LOW AT  
THIS TIME. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL  
FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND 1 KM  
DEEP AT BEST, WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR SUNDAY  
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PCPN  
MAY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA, OR WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN SD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP. MID  
LEVELS AT THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DRY AND THERE COULD BE SOME  
BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO  
DETERMINE THIS LINE OR WHETHER THE DRIER MID LEVEL WILL KEEP  
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIP FROM FALLING AT ALL. KEPT ANY  
MENTION RAIN OR SNOW FOR NOW.  
 
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE EAST THROUGH MID  
WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN STARTING TUESDAY HELPING TO BUMP  
TEMPS UP TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SNOW FREE (OR LOW  
SNOW) AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS SOAR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH  
INCREASED SFC MIXING AND H85 TEMPS AS HIGH AS +14C. THE POTENTIAL,  
IF NOT FOR THE SNOW PACK, WOULD BE FOR TEMPS IN THE 60S. TUESDAY  
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE ALSO THE ONLY NIGHTS WITH FORECAST  
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THESE TEMP TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY  
MONITORED FOR THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON SNOW MELT AND FLOODING.  
 
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SD/WEST  
CENTRAL MN. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH A  
WEAK, ELONGATED SFC LOW. QPF OUTLOOK IS VERY LOW FOR THIS EVENT WITH  
DRY SFC AND MID LEVELS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF AREAS SOUTHEAST  
OF THIS CWA GETTING A SHOWER OR TWO. THE NEXT CHANCE WILL BE WITH AN  
END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY.  
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT ON THIS LOW.  
HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH PERHAPS A  
RESIDUAL CHANCE FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR ON UPPER TROUGH SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MVFR,IFR) ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM ACROSS  
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT, CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH GIVEN MID  
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DORN  
SHORT TERM...SD  
LONG TERM...WISE  
AVIATION...DORN  
 
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