101
FXUS63 KABR 101123 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
623 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THIS EVENING, AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL (1 TO 2
INCHES) AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60-70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. JUST A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA
AT ABOUT 20KTS. GIVEN THE RATHER NEBULOUS SETUP FOR WEAK FORCING
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, CAMS ARE LIKEWISE STRUGGLING TO COME UP
WITH A UNIFIED SOLUTION AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LOW CHANCE
FOR POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES AREN'T
EVEN THAT UNSTABLE WITH MINIMAL MID LEVEL CAPE. THEN AGAIN, WE
REMAIN IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SO CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO BUT THE
OVERALL PROGNOSIS IS FOR MAINLY SUB-SEVERE TYPE STORMS AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE.
SHIFT TO THIS EVENING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT WEST
AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. A
WEAK WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY, SUPPORTING CONVECTION IN
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ALOFT. CAMS FOR THE MOST PART ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX THAT DRIVES
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT WITH AN OVERALL RAPID PROGRESSION EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. HREF 0-3KM HELICITY PEAKS AROUND 300M2/S2 AND THE 4-HOUR
MAX ENSEMBLE WINDS INDICATE 60+ KT POTENTIAL WITH ENSEMBLES
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
IN REGARDS TO SMOKE, NO REAL CHANGE. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BROAD EXPANSE OF THICK SMOKE
ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WE GET A
PATTERN CHANGE. FLOW AROUND THE CURRENT SURFACE HIGH EVEN AS IT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST CURRENTLY HAS NO LOW LEVEL SMOKE TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA. THE ONE IMPACT SMOKE IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE IS
INFLUENCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE I'LL STICK WITH NBM HIGHS,
REALIZE THAT INITIAL SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS
CONTINGENT ON TEMPERATURES AND IF THE EXPECTED THICK SHEEN OF SMOKE
KNOCKS DOWN TEMPERATURES 2-4F THEN THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MAY NOT STICK TO THE CURRENT CAM CONSENSUS.
THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS COMING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK, AS WE SEE AN EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW STRENGTHEN, WITH
A BROAD HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WHICH DRIBBLES SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
GOT SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. KPIR/KMBG ARE
VFR FOR NOW, BUT MAY BE IMPACTED AT SOME POINT DURING THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DRY
PERIOD THROUGH ~23Z BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF (POTENTIALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE) STORMS GETS GOING BY EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER
THROUGH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION (KPIR/KMBG)
BETWEEN ~03Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. LARGE HAIL 1-2+INCHES IN DIAMETER
AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10
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