009  
FXUS63 KABR 172339 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
539 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
 
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
 
THE MODELS AND ALL ENSEMBLES WERE ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW  
TO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A  
TREND FOR SNOW TO FALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE LATEST  
RUN ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN QPF. THEREFORE, WITH GOOD LIFT IN  
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION, EXPECT THE SNOW TO SPREAD QUICKLY FROM  
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING BUT SHOULD PUT OUT SOME DECENT  
SNOWFALL RATES FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THEREFORE,  
INCREASED SNOWFALL SOME ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVED IT FARTHER  
NORTH. WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT, ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR  
PART OF CENTRAL SD, AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH OR SO ON FRIDAY WILL BLOW AROUND  
THE LOW WATER EQUIVALENT/FLUFFY SNOW CAUSING LOWER VISIBILITIES.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
 
THE PERIOD OPENS UP WITH A DEPARTING SNOW SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH AND  
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. INCOMING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE  
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL  
STRUGGLE TO MOVE UPWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IN  
FACT, SATURDAY WILL START OUT SUBZERO FOR MOST; TEENS BELOW ZERO  
FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. WIND SPEEDS WON'T BE OUT OF  
HAND DURING THIS TIME, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A WIND TO  
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW, POSSIBLY COLDER ACROSS OUR  
NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO  
KEEP IN EYE ON IN FUTURE FORECAST ITERATIONS IF ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE  
IS NEEDED OR NOT.  
 
A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND SUNDAY MORNING AND DRAW IN SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE WESTERN  
DAKOTAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM  
AND MAINLY AFFECT LOCALES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN TIER. MOSTLY  
MOISTURE STARVED, THIS WAVE DOESN'T LOOK TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY  
OF ACCUMULATION. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A  
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE WILL BE ONGOING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS ONE SYSTEMS DIVES WELL SOUTH OF THE  
REGION AND A WEAKER ONE WORKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD AS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THE REMAINDER OF  
THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO  
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TO KEEP  
READINGS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
 
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE  
DAY FRIDAY. VSBYS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES WITH  
THE SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. VSBYS  
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO  
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ009-010-015>017-033>035-  
045.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR SDZ006-  
011-019>023.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY  
FOR SDZ018-036-037-048-051.  
 
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MOHR  
LONG TERM...VIPOND  
AVIATION...PARKIN  
 
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