141
FXUS63 KABR 092315
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
SHARP COOLDOWN EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST CONCERN FOCUSED WEST RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER, PRIMARILY WEST RIVER WHERE MIN RH FALLS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT
IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON CORSON COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FROPA AND
GUST 30 TO 40 MPH. STILL LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF PIERRE AND WEST OF LOWER BRULE WHERE FUELS ARE BURNABLE.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHARPLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. FALL-LIKE TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THAT COLD FROPA ON FRIDAY, THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, CAPE
AND FORCING SET UP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK AS FAR WEST AS I-29. GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR, STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. CURRENT QPF
FORECAST RANGES FROM HALF AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN TO ROUND OUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY FOR THURSDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...07
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