139
FXUS63 KABR 291107 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
607 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY (20-40%) AND
THURSDAY (15-30%). THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEEKEND HIGHS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 60S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH. WHILE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT, CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN AREA THAT WOULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12Z. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
VISIBILITIES, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF VISIBILITY
BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WHEN WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LEADING TO SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
VERY SIMILAR SETUPS BOTH DAYS. JET STREAKS ALOFT RIDING DOWN INTO
THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT (ABOVE THE 700-600MB
SATURATED LAYER) THAT MAY LIMIT THE GROWTH OF THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE MARGINAL MUCAPE (<250 J/KG BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A TOUCH GREATER TODAY) WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER EITHER DAY.
WHILE THE TROUGH IS PRESENT OVERHEAD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST AND SIT OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, BUT HEIGHT RISES (UP TO ROUGHLY 560-564 DAM AT 500MB)
WILL SIT NEAR MEDIAN VALUES FOR EARLY MAY. NATURALLY, THIS
TRANSLATES TO NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS BROAD PATTERN LOOKS SET TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHERE THE RETURN OF SOME JET STREAK SUPPORTED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION (MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA) FROM ROUGHLY MID-DAY TODAY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, SO
PROB30S CONTINUE IN THE KPIR AND KMBG TAFS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
SET-UP TODAY SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL (GS) AND
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITHIN THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE CELLS, IN ADDITION TO BRIEF VSBY DROPS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. CURRENTLY, THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON
THE FRINGE OF WHERE TODAY'S ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP. SO, FOR THE
MOMENT, THOSE TWO TAFS REMAIN DRY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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