208
FXUS63 KABR 112324 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
524 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS, BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID
JANUARY, RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
- A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF 40-70 PERCENT
OF SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS IN BOTH
CASES LOOK MINIMAL.
- A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 35-45 MPH. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHERE PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 35-55 MPH. THIS COMBINED
WITH ANY SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
AT 3 PM....SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. SOUTHWEST BREEZES HAVE HELPED TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHILE
WESTERN ZONES ARE ENJOYING READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A WARM
FRONT IS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL HEAD OFF INTO MN TONIGHT. A SFC TROUGH WILL FOLLOW PASSING
THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. SPEAKING OF THE WIND, ENHANCED
DOWNSLOPING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRAIRIE
COTEAU HAVE GUSTED BETWEEN 40-50+ MPH IN PARTS OF ROBERTS, GRANT AND
DEUEL COUNTIES. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO BACK DOWN GOING INTO THIS EVENING. MILD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ESSENTIALLY, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS FLOW, THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH LITTLE
FANFARE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, WE CONTINUE TO SEE CREDIBLE
EVIDENCE THAT A COUPLE OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS WILL BE WORTH NOTING
THAT WILL BRING CHANGES TO OUR OVERALL DRY AND MILD PATTERN. THE
FIRST IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO MN AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SLIDE EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA AND MAY PROVIDE OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WITH A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THOUGH HAS BEEN LESS BULLISH ON PRECIP FOR
OUR CWA VERSUS LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH INTO MN. BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS PROG A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
WILL HAVE A PLAY ON WHERE TEMPERATURE TRENDS SET UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE MORE NOTABLE WINDS MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION HITS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE VALUES LOOK RATHER LIMITED WITH THE FROPA, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS OUR EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY, A SHOT OF COOLER AIR
WILL BE ON THE WAY HEADING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY CHILLY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST WITH DAYTIME
READINGS IN UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE PATTERN GOING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WOULD GIVE OUR CWA A
BRIEF BUMP IN TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DRAWS IN 30S AND
40S FOR DAYTIME READINGS. THIS COULD ALSO INDUCE A PERIOD OF WAA
PRECIP ON THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE JAMES
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL HELP DRAW IN SOME OF THAT MILD AIR. THEN,
CHANGES WILL BE IN THE OFFING AS THE SECOND AND PERHAPS MORE
STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HIT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROBS OF SEEING WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH REMAIN HIGH, ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST WHERE THEY RANGE BETWEEN 75-95+ PERCENT.
WHERE THE SNOW FALLS DURING THESE STRONG WINDS WILL POSE ISSUES IN
TERMS OF VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS POINT, OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED A MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR
THIS TO OCCUR. THE UPPER WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK AND DIG INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE WE ARE LEFT
WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...20
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