306
FXUS63 KABR 130523 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2022
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK, THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SFC WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KABR
WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TNT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TNT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THAT FOG IS LOW, SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
IN THE EAST, WITH NEAR AND ABOVE 90 OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER. A WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA, BUT
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022
THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE RELEASED EARLY THIS MORNING. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD BEFORE RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND
GREAT BASIN REGIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE AREA WILL SEE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS SUCCESSIVE UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND LOCATIONS
OF BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH
THAT SAID HOWEVER, THERE'S SOME CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT EARLY
IN THE PERIOD, LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, COULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEEING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN. BEYOND THAT,
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DWINDLES ON PRECIP CHANCES. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2022
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
OVERNIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...SD
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