833
FXUS63 KABR 251808
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
108 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. PROBABILITIES OF SEEING ONE INCH OR MORE RANGE FROM 20-50
PERCENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD TO 50-90 PERCENT FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
- SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL SD. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES, WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SEEING TWO INCHES OR MORE FROM EAGLE BUTTE TO GETTYSBURG
AND SOUTH TO HAYES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST WAVE IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD WHILE A SECOND
WAVE IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD. AREAS IN BETWEEN ARE FILLING IN BUT
ARE BATTLING A LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC WITH 15 DEGREE
DEWPOINT SPREADS UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THE 18Z SOUNDING AT ABR
SHOWS SATURATION FROM 700MB UP. AS THE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ERODES, THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BATTLE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AS THE SFC HIGH DIGS INTO ND TONIGHT.
COULD SEE RAIN TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IT'S REINFORCED BY A
STACKED LOW MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO THE PLAINS.
AS MODELS ROTATE THE UPPER LOW AND 700MB LOW INTO CENTRAL SD MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FORCING AND ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE SFC LOW IN CENTRAL NE,
THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SHIFT IN PRECIP, THOUGH, FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST MONDAY. SNOW POTENTIAL NOW COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL SD WITH LESS
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN CORSON COUNTY. 90TH PERCENTILE STILL SHOWS
LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES, BUT LOCATED FROM EAGLE BUTTE
TO GETTYSBURG WITH 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES RANGING FROM NOTHING TO
AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, MODELS
HAVE A NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME PINPOINTING H7 LOW TRACKS, SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW CONTINUES TO BE LOW.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER, ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THAN NBM. BLENDED TOWARD HI-RES WHICH ACCOUNT FOR NON-DIURNAL SPREAD
A BIT BETTER. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST MONAY NIGHT, COULD SEE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF PRECIP ALONG THE COTEAU IN THE PIVOT POINT. A
NOSE OF WARMER AIR WILL KEEP THE PRECIP ALL RAIN, THOUGH. THE SYSTEM
EXITS TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN
WITH RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 21Z.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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