548  
FXUS63 KABR 280817  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
317 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021  
 
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST, ALLOWING  
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. ANY FOG THAT HAS  
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY MIXING OUT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER  
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF MID LEVEL  
FEATURES, BUT MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE. A FAVORABLE  
MIXING DIRECTION AND GRADIENT WILL SET US UP FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND  
30MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MAKES A SLOW PROGRESSION, SO  
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE CWA WON'T BE TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS AND A BREEZE WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.  
MAYBE SOME FOG IN THE MORNING BUT GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC AND  
DRYING WIND ALL DAY WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE, BUT NIGHTS  
ARE LONG AND THERE IS A LOT OF RECENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL  
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND WATCH. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PICK  
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH WEST RIVER FRIDAY, WITH AN UPTICK IN  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021  
 
THE MAJOR THEME IN THE OUT PERIODS IS THE COLD. THE PERIOD OPENS  
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER THE FAR  
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE  
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE THE END OF THE SATURDAY DAY  
PERIOD, AND BY ALL ACCOUNTS, AT THIS POINT, IT IS STILL A DRY FROPA.  
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THOUGH, STRONG COLD FRONTS LIKE THIS CAN AND  
SOMETIMES DO PRODUCE SOME ISO'D/WDLY SCT'D "SHOWERS" ALONG THEM,  
DETECTABLE ON RADAR, BUT PERHAPS NOT GENERATING MORE THAN A TRACE OF  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
SATURDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FOR TEMPERATURE, AS AREAS THAT START  
OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY PROBABLY DON'T SEE MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY  
DURING THE DAY, WHILE AREAS THAT START OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY  
BE ABLE TO WARM SOME. THOSE PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AREAS WILL SEE THE  
TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT, IF NOT FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH THE  
MID-DAY THROUGH LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS  
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING, WITH LOW LEVEL CAA THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY  
NEVER REALLY SHUTTING OFF PRIOR TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
ANOMALOUSLY COLD FOR THE PERIOD 10/30 TO 11/3 SEEMS A REASONABLE WAY  
TO DESCRIBE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE BRIEFLY AT KATY BUT FOR THE MOST  
PART THESE HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST ALONG WITH ANY MVFR CIGS.  
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY EXPANDING INTO THE KATY AREA, THIS  
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS,  
THOUGH WITH A CAVEAT. WITH CLEARING, WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY  
DEVELOP DUE TO FOG AT KABR/KATY, THOUGH NOT VERY CONFIDENT AT  
THIS POINT. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST ANY CHANCE FOR FOG  
DIMINISHES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT  
RANGE AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY  
LONG TERM...DORN  
AVIATION...CONNELLY  
 
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