793  
FXUS63 KABR 202327 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
527 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE  
PLANNED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE  
COTEAU REGION. STILL SEEING GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT THE PEEVER MESONET,  
WITH DOT ROAD REPORTS STARTING TO PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND  
SCATTERED SLIPPERY COMMENTS. ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS SITUATION  
AND MADE IT VALID THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTION IN  
WIND SPEEDS AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,  
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE  
SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH. THIS WILL KEEP  
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT, AND MAY EVEN SEE STEADY OR  
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS IN SOME CASES WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WIND  
SPEEDS MESH UP THE BEST. LOW TEMP FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT IS  
DIFFICULT TO FIND A BALANCE BETWEEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER  
AGAINST THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  
 
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WANE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STILL  
LOOKING AT A MILD DAY ON FRIDAY THANKS TO WARMING 925/850MB TEMPS  
AND WEST/SOUTHWEST MIXING WINDS. WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S WILL BE  
FELT, AND COULD EVEN BE NEARING 50 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST  
CWA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE OUT PERIODS INCLUDE HOW UNSEASONABLY WARM IT WILL  
BE SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WITH THE  
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW PATTERN THAT IS  
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK (LONGWAVE TROFFING OVER THE NATION'S MID-  
SECTION), STILL SEEING AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH ON SUNDAY, WITH  
STEADILY COOLING LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY (DOWN TO  
NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO NORMS). LOOKS LIKE THE CWA WILL STAY UNDER SOME  
FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE  
PERIOD. PRIOR TO MONDAY, THINGS LOOK DRY OVER THIS REGION. FROM  
MONDAY ONWARD, MODELS DO DEPICT A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, FROM WHICH A LITTLE BIT OF  
PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR OVER THIS CWA. STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK ON  
MONDAY/TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES, BUT SEEMS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL  
SOUTH DAKOTA STANDS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION WITH THAT SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...WISE  
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...DORN  
AVIATION...WISE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SD Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page