341
FXUS63 KABR 161128 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING.
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC BOUNDARY ARE SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES, BUT LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING IS A CONSERVATIVE GUESS THIS TIME OF YEAR
FOR INITIATION WITH NO STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
HUMID CONDITIONS BUT HIGHS THAT ARE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 80S BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH
AROUND 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE WITH 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING BY 3Z. THERE'S EVEN DECENT 0-1KM
HELICITY THROUGH 0Z. IF DISCRETE CELLS DO FORM, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. BY WED AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW AND
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS. SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OR TWO OF QUIET WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, A FEW
MORE WEAK WAVES CROSSING THROUGH WITHIN THE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW MORE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
MODEST HUMIDITY AS WELL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. TSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD AROUND 0Z AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR AND KMBG, WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE
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