893
FXUS63 KABR 140545
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DANGEROUS AND PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WARMING INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH,
AND DRYING FUELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST WITH THIS PERSISTENT
HEAT WAVE THAT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD,
WHICH HAS FLATTENED A BIT ACROSS CANADA AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS
THE TOP OF IT. IT WILL THEN AMPLIFY BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE AXIS OF THE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN ACTUALLY HAVE THE
RIDGE TRACKING EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD (BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED)
AND ACTUALLY WEAKEN A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IT THEN AMPLIFIES
ONCE AGAIN AND RETROGRADES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THIS RIDGE AND ONGOING
MID LEVEL HIGH BENEATH IT, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SINKING AIR
WITH NO CHANCE OF MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SLIGHT POPS DO
RETURN SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN AT 20% OR LESS WITH A
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW/FRONT. PROBABILITY OF 0.01" IS ONLY ABOUT 20-40%
DURING THIS TIME PER NBM FOR NOW.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
MAINLY WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS OVERALL OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BRINGING IN A BIT DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS BY PEAK
HEATING EACH AFTERNOON RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL
SD TO THE JAMES RIVER. DEWPOINTS REMAIN A BIT HIGHER EAST OF HERE
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MN RANGING IN THE 60S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT COOLER THEN THE
ACTUAL TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL SD (STILL UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S) WHILE
THE MORE HUMID AIR EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL PUT HEAT INDICES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MAXT'S (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COTEAU THAT
REMAIN COOLER). WARM BIAS CONTINUES IN THE NBM 5.0 AS NBM 5.2 IS
ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE DIFFERENCE OVER CENTRAL SD (HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
ACHIEVING FORECAST HIGHS) WHILE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER IS 2-3
DEGREES RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE HIGHEST SPREAD SEEMS TO
STILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD/WESTERN MN. THIS WARM BIAS AND
RESULTING SPREAD BETWEEN NBM5/5.2 CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. CONTINUED THE TREND AND LOWERED MAXT'S A DEGREE OR TWO
BLENDING IN CONSSHORT FOR TODAY'S HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH ONLY A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA MONDAY AND BOTH NBM
5.0/5.2 HEAT INDICES BELOW 105, WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TO A HEAT ADVISORY. EVEN LOOKING
AHEAD HEAT INDICES OF 100 ONLY LOOK TO BE SPOTTY AND LESS WIDESPREAD
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP THE ONGOING HEAT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
LASTLY, WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT OF WIND, MIN RH WILL
RANGE FROM 20-30% WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, LOWEST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MO RIVER. LUCKILY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY THEREFORE, LESS
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THEY DO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO POTENTIALLY 35 MPH, HIGHEST OVER
CORSON/DEWEY AND JONES/LYMAN. ONGOING DRY AIR RESULTS IN RH
DROPPING AGAIN BETWEEN 20-25% AND COMBINING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
MAY LED TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. WITH THE LACK OF RAIN
AND GEOCOLOR SATELLITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE DRYING FUELS WEST
RIVER, A FIRE HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES WEST OF THE
MO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT PULL THE
TRIGGER ON THAT IF NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOUR FORECAST CYCLE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR
SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021-033>037-045-048-051.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ003-
004-009-015-016.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...VIPOND
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