278
FXUS63 KABR 232325
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AND 40S
(AND 50S TO LOW 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
NO CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING. SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATE TO THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
WINDS AROUND 900MB OF 40-50KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, THERE IS
SOME TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH MAY
BE ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY TO RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, LIKELY MORE SO AT SISSETON (DOWNSLOPE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU).
ONE OF THE MAIN UNKNOWNS OF THIS FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDING ARE SHOWING THAT WE'RE
BASICALLY DOUBLING UP THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FOGGY/HAZY LOOK WAS NOTED ON SEVERAL AREA
WEBCAMS TODAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAD SNOW MELT THE
PREVIOUS DAY, OR ADVECT IN FROM AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED MELTING.
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY HAVOC ON OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH TO NORTHEAST. OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOW SATURDAY NIGHT (LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE) OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN).
OUR NEXT MAIN CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY BEHIND A
SURFACE LOW EXITING FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD AROUND 12Z SATURDAY
TO WESTERN MN. THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
AND ULTIMATE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW, SO EXPECT CHANGES. EITHER
WAY THROUGH, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. WHILE
THERE WILL BE MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY. FOG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF MVFR/IFR VSBY'S.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...07
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