849
FXUS63 KABR 032150
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
450 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WE ARE MONITORING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THAT IF THEY STICK
TOGETHER, WILL BE NEAR JONES COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NEARING FROM ND AND THERE ARE LINGERING DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASING WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD THE COLD FRONT
WITH HALF KM WINDS REACHING 35 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 3-12Z MONDAY. A
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA, STARTING AROUND 12Z, WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE BY 18Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE LLM IS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT
AROUND A FOURTH OF AN INCH AT MOST. SOME CAMS ARE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POST FRONTAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING COUPLED WITH HIGH BASES, EVEN WITH SOME
INSTABILITY, AM NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF. ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE THE MAIN ISSUE POST FRONTAL AS THE
NBM SHOWS 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH, MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS OF NOW, WINDS MAY
FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S, TO THE 50S, OR 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NBM SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD, WITHIN 5 DEGREES, LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 70S FOR MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR POSSIBLE 07-13Z MONDAY AT ATY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF
30-35KTS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...06
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