129
FXUS63 KABR 200630
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
130 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40
MPH DURING THE DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 20%
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, 25-35% ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE FRONT. MINOR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE ARE A COUPLE SMALL CELLS STILL MAKING
THEIR WAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD,
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES. ALSO TODAY, A PLUME OF SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HAZY SKIES
AND SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN SD TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD DROPPING TO AROUND
20% THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE ENHANCED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL SD FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS WEST RIVER
AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS COMING
WEEKEND AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. HUMIDITY AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO RAISE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT, MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE HIGH, A LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ITS HARD TO SAY
IF ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED, HEAT
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THIS LOOKS TO CUT OFF OUR
CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A PASSING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KATY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ELEVATED SMOKE MAY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20
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