015
FXUS63 KABR 281716
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING THIS
EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
PLACE. HAIL OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MILES
PER HOUR WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS.
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU/SISSETON HILLS IS
IN PLACE FOR STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY EVENING. HAIL OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MILES PER HOUR ARE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WITH SOME SMALL SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING, SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES
HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING (~1430Z) THE MAIN CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS REMAINS JUST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. OCCASIONAL PULSES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VIA
SATELLITE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM
TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS STORM CURRENTLY, BUT THE
EXPECTATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER, PARTICULARLY AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND A MORE IN-DEPTH LOOK AT THE
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WILL COME WITH THE DISCUSSION IN THE
MAIN FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE ROCKIES TODAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALL DAY AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING, 40-
70%. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THESE STORMS. MAIN HAZARDS ARE 1 INCH HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WIND
GUSTS. PWATS OVER THE AREA ARE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. CAMS ARE IN PRETTY MUCH 2
CAMPS AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL TAKE
PLACE. THE FIRST DEVELOPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AT AROUND 7 PM CDT AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SECOND MOVES INTO THE AREA OUT OF ND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT CDT,
MOVES EAST AND INTENSIFIES INTO NORTHEAST SD. BOTH CAMPS HAVE STORMS
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU/SISSETON HILLS
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES. FOLLOWING THIS, LOW LEVEL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE MOST DAYS AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. SOME LIGHT ELEVATED SMOKE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY,
RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL GUST 25-
30 MPH AND THESE LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH THE 7-DAY. WE
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER NEXT WORK WEEK IF WE
DON'T GET MUCH RAIN OUT OF THESE STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY ARE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. AS OF 17Z, AFTERNOON SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND ARE
SCATTERED IN NATURE, CREATING SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT
WORST. AN OCCASIONAL PULSE OF LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED IN THESE
SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT OVER THE HOUR NO LIGHTNING HAS
OCCURRED. THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE ONGOING SYSTEM, AND MAY BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE EVENING TIME FRAME, CONTINUING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY, HAVE KEPT THESE STORMS WITHIN PROB30 GROUPS
IN THE 18Z TAFS. IN GENERAL CEILING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR THRESHOLDS DESPITE THE STORMS, BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
THE RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE FOR CATEGORY REDUCTIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO MINNESOTA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AT THE
LATEST.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...BC
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