390
FXUS63 KABR 220205 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
905 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE SPOTTY CHANCES
OF RAIN RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-80%) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
WITH THE CWA SITTING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL HANGING AROUND. WITH MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA CLEARING OFF OR ALREADY CLEARED OFF,
COULD CERTAINLY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPING
LATER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. CONVERSELY, SHORT-TERM
RAPIDLY-REFRESHING GUIDANCE WANTS TO CREATE/ADVECT LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD EVEN BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AT
TIMES, OVERNIGHT, AS THIS STRATUS DEVELOPS/DEEPENS. THERE'S
ALWAYS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING WHERE/WHEN FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS FORMS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS AND RADAR (FOR POTENTIAL
DRIZZLE BLOOM) CLOSELY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND SIOUX CITY LATE THIS MORNING. IT
CONTINUES TO PULL BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS INTO PORTIONS
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ORTONVILLE TO PIERRE. FARTHER NORTH,
HOWEVER, SUNSHINE IS BEGINNING TO FILTER THROUGH WITH MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PULL FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON TAKING THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS WITH IT.
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON RETURN FLOW AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A ROCKY
MOUNTAIN LOW SETTLES OVER WYOMING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A 25 TO 30
KT LLJ SETS UP OVER CENTRAL SD. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL GUST 30 TO 35
MPH. OVERNIGHT, THESE FEATURES SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LLJ WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN
THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ND AMPLIFYING THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S
ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THAT RIDGE EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN OF SHORTWAVES AND 700 MB TO 500 MB LOWS WILL KEEP OFF AND ON
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE AN ACTIVE AND
RATHER WET PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS WEEK, NOTHING LOOKS PARTICULARLY
HAZARDOUS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
ALL FOUR TERMINALS CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CIGS OVER THEM. IT'S ALSO
RAINING AT KATY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS, ONE OR MORE OF THESE TERMINALS (PROBABLY KABR/KMBG) COULD
BECOME UNCOVERED BY CLOUDS, ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL TO PERHAPS FULL
CLEARING DURING PART OR MOST OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD (PRIOR TO
12Z TUESDAY). GUIDANCE DOES START TO DRAW HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (IE. LOW CLOUDS OR
PERHAPS MORE FOG WHERE IT CLEARS OFF FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS) ON
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN SOME PLACES, THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
IF ANY LIFT CAN BE HAD WITHIN THE STRATUS LAYER. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REDUCE DOWN TO MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS, MAINLY DUE TO LOW
CIGS DEVELOPING/MOVING OVER THE REGION.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10
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