306  
FXUS63 KABR 130523 AAC  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
 
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
 
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK, THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
 
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SFC WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KABR  
WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TNT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT  
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TNT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THAT FOG IS LOW, SO WILL LEAVE  
OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S  
IN THE EAST, WITH NEAR AND ABOVE 90 OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY  
OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER. A WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGING SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA, BUT  
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
 
THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM  
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE RELEASED EARLY THIS MORNING. A BROAD  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY  
IN THE PERIOD BEFORE RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND  
GREAT BASIN REGIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING  
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS  
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE AREA WILL SEE  
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS SUCCESSIVE UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE  
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND LOCATIONS  
OF BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH  
THAT SAID HOWEVER, THERE'S SOME CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT EARLY  
IN THE PERIOD, LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, COULD BE AN  
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEEING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN. BEYOND THAT,  
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DWINDLES ON PRECIP CHANCES. OVERALL,  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE  
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID  
60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA EAST OF  
THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON  
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER  
OVERNIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM MID MORNING INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SD  
SHORT TERM...TDK  
LONG TERM...VIPOND  
AVIATION...SD  
 
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