829  
FXUS63 KABR 161044  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
444 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR (20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL)  
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL  
STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ZERO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
- MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS -50 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN  
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS  
IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
 
 
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
FLURRIES TO SPOTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND  
WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO  
EXIT/TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT  
WITH REINFORCING CAA IN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH. ON THE NORTHEASTERN  
EDGE OF A CO/WY LOW, A BAROCLINIC/FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP  
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW (LESS THAN 1 INCH  
ACCUMULATION) TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS  
WEEK. HEADLINES WERE TRICKY AS A RESULT. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER  
EXPECTED, DID LEAN TOWARD THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE. UPGRADED THE  
EXTREME COLD WATCH TO A WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED A  
TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 14 TO A NEW SEGMENT THAT  
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COUNTIES ALONG I-90 GOT A COLD  
ADVISORY JUST FOR LATE TONIGHT STARTING AT 9Z THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING. IN THE WARNING AREAS, WIND CHILLS DO NOT RISE ABOVE -20  
DEGREES WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN ADVISORY CRITERIA  
EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO  
HIT 0 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS H85 TEMPS  
TANK TO -24 TO -28 CELSIUS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURES LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH FROM MANITOBA AND  
OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND CENTRAL MN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. AS THIS IS HAPPENING, ARCTIC AIR IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE  
ATMOSPHERE. THE TEMPERATURE TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER  
THAN NORMAL AND 30-35 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.  
MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING LOOK TO HAVE CONDITIONS SIMILAR  
TO LAST WEEKS, WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW THE NBM 5TH  
PERCENTILE. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES  
COULD ALSO DROP THAT LOW, THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE WAS USED FOR THE  
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR MORE CHANGES TO BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO  
THOSE TIMES. WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT GET CLOSE TO RECORD  
LOWS AT CLIMATE SITES, THEY DON’T LOOK TO FULLY BREAK THEM. ON THE  
OTHER HAND, WITH THE CLUSTERS SHOWING LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE THAT  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WON’T GET ABOVE 0 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THAT RECORD LOW HIGH  
TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE BROKEN.  
 
THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS LOOK TO STAY AROUND 10-15KTS WHILE THE  
ARCTIC AIR IS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD. THESE WINDS WILL ADD TO  
THE COLD TEMPERATURES, MAKING THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.  
THE OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING LOOK TO  
DROP AROUND, IF NOT BELOW, -40 OVER NORTHERN SD COUNTIES. WITH THIS,  
THE CRITERIA FOR AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN MET, OR IS CLOSE  
TO BEING MET, FOR MANY COUNTIES, LEADING TO THE EXTREME COLD WATCH  
TO BE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
AREAS TO THE SOUTH LOOK TO GET INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA  
WITH THEIR WIND CHILLS AROUND/BELOW -25, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT  
ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUED AS WELL.  
 
THE SNOW CHANCES FROM MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CLUSTERS STILL VARY HOW FAR  
NORTH THE SNOW WILL GO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WELL AS HOW MUCH  
SNOW WILL FALL. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT, WITH THE NBM SHOWING  
ONLY 0.2IN OVER JONES COUNTY. HOWEVER, THE CLUSTERS HAVE A 30-70%  
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 14  
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MODELS  
AND CLUSTERS SHOW THAT PRECIPITATION MAINLY STAYS OUT OF CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN SD THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO  
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003>011-015>023.  
 
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 1  
PM CST /NOON MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037.  
 
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ045-  
048-051.  
 
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST  
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WISE  
LONG TERM...VERNON  
AVIATION...WISE  
 
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