243
FXUS63 KABR 290540 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1140 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 35 TO 50 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
- A SECOND WAVE OF SNOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A DUSTING AND 2 INCHES OVER
NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN, THE COMBINATION OF THE NEW
SNOW ON THE GROUND, FALLING SNOW, AND THE WIND WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL FREQUENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW A
HALF MILE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST SD AND IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
- THERE IS A 40% OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEAST SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN, BUT AT THIS TIME, ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST. WHERE SNOW HAS
STARTED FALLING AGAIN IN THESE 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH, MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN
3/4SM TO 3SM. OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA, WHERE IT
SNOWED THE LONGEST EARLIER TODAY (AND ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WAS OBSERVED), THE COMBINATION OF NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND PLUS
FALLING SNOW THIS EVENING IN THESE STRONG WINDS IS CAUSING THE
LOWEST OF VISIBILITIES, AROUND ONE-HALF TO ONE-QUARTER MILE. THE
UPPER CIRCULATION IS DOWN OVER MITCHELL AREA AND THE BACK EDGE OF
FALLING SNOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA MOVING SOUTH IS JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS AWAY FROM SHIFTING DOWN AND CLEARING THIS REGION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 556 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
AS OF 2PM, MUCH OF THE FALLING SNOW IS CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST SD
AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEAST. IN THE AREAS WHERE THERE IS FALLING SNOW, SEEING
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1 MILE AND THEN FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
ONCE THE SNOW ENDS, THE VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IMPROVE TO ABOVE 4
MILES. BUT ARE SEEING A FEW SPOTS WHERE THERE WAS ENOUGH SNOW TO
KEEP BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITIES AROUND OR BELOW A MILE, WHICH DOES
LEAD TO SOME CONCERNS AS THE FALLING SNOW PIVOTS BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND INTO THE AREA TOWARDS EVENING (EVEN STARTING TO SHOW UP IN
SOUTHERN ND IN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS). THAT PIVOT SOUTHWARD OF THE
TROWAL PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUICK SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING IN CENTRAL SD. THE MAIN
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW STRONG WILL THE SNOW BE AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE EXISTING WINDS (WHICH MAY EVEN TREND UP A TOUCH AS THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AROUND 5KTS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS). THINKING THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO EARLIER TODAY
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER SNOW) AND LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE AND LIKELY BETWEEN A HALF AND A QUARTER
MILE. THIS PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED (LIKELY ONLY 4-
6 HOURS), BUT WHEN THE SNOW IS FALLING AND IF SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
25KTS OR HIGHER, WE'LL GET BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (PER BLOWING SNOW
MODEL RESEARCH). CURRENT FORECAST HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22-28KTS
AND THAT ALIGNS WITH FOR SURE ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND AT TIMES
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SINCE IT IS CLOSE AND SITES IN ND HAVE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE WITH WEAKER WINDS, OPTED TO UPGRADE
ROBERTS, MARSHALL, GRANT, AND BIG STONE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST, DID START UP ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MCPHERSON, BROWN, AND SPINK COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COMBINED FALLING/BLOWING SNOW EXPECTATIONS. THE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE PRETTY QUICKLY BETWEEN 04Z-07Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROWAL AND CUTS OUT THE LARGER
FORCING. BLOWING SNOW MODEL CAPTURES THIS TREND WELL, WITH PERCENT
COVERAGE OF HALF MILE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY LOWERING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A 1040MB HIGH MOVES OVER
CENTRAL SD BY MID DAY MONDAY.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM PRODUCING THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING, THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A COUPLE
CLIPPERS/SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSENSUS FROM THE ENSEMBLES IS FOR TUESDAY'S SYSTEM
TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (5-10
PERCENT) OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MN AREA.
WILL MENTION THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/FZRA/SNOW MIX IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, AS SOUNDINGS SHOW INITIAL TEMPS ALOFT (AROUND
900-850MB) BEING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, WOULD
EXPECT EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO BRING BELOW FREEZING AND BRING SNOW
EVENTUALLY. OF COURSE, THIS IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRING, SO
NOT GOING TO TRY AND PINPOINT THE EXACT P-TYPE THIS FAR OUT. ALSO
WILL MENTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE FRESH SNOW IN
NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN, AND AS TEMPS WARM TOWARDS
FREEZING, IT COULD CREATE SOME ICY SPOTS ON THE ROADS IN THAT AREA.
THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK A FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD (1016MB LOW), WITH THE SNOW FALLING
MAINLY THROUGH EASTERN ND, FAR NORTHEAST SD, AND INTO CENTRAL MN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING
LIGHT AT THIS POINT, WITH NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 0 TO 1 INCH NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BRITTON TO CLEAR LAKE.
FORTUNATELY, WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
SD, DON'T EXPECT ANY STRONG WINDS WITH THAT SNOW FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THUS NO BLOWING SNOW. ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FALLING SNOW.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY CLIPPER (HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S) BEFORE SETTLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
(ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE HIGHS).
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST SD AND WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
WITH SNOW ENDING, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF HOW LONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL PERSIST AND
BE ABLE TO BLOW/DRIFT SNOW ACROSS AIRPORT TERMINAL GROUNDS/RUNWAYS.
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ007-008-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ011.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...SRF
AVIATION...10
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