333
FXUS63 KABR 221704
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1204 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 30-40 MILE
PER HOUR GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
ROUGHLY 10-30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO REACH 45 MILES PER HOUR OR
MORE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- WARM CONDITIONS, STRONG WINDS, AND DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY, AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN FRIDAY.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND
WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS COME SATURDAY ALONG A COLD
FRONT, WHERE THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE TO SEE 0.1 INCH OF RAIN
OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 30 MILES PER
HOUR OR HIGHER OVER THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 35 MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER OVER THAT AREA INTO THE
HIGH CATEGORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
A LOW SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NV AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST TO BE OVER MT TODAY. THIS WILL BE CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SD TO TIGHTEN, WHICH HELPS TO STRENGTHEN THE WINDS
ALOFT. THESE STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START TO MIX DOWN
OVER CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. OVERNIGHT
THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE HREF HAS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR THE
WINDS TO BE GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH OR MORE ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU. THE ENSEMBLES ON THE OTHER HAND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
THIS BELOW 30%. THESE WINDS ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE
IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND THE DRY
VEGETATION OVER THE AREA ARE LEADING TO HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
OVER CENTRAL SD ON THURSDAY AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. THE ONE THING KEEPING THE FIRE
DANGER FROM INCREASING, AND A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED, IS THE
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. THURSDAY THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
ABOVE 35% AND FRIDAY THE VALUES EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL BE
ABOVE 35% AND TO THE WEST WILL BE BETWEEN 30-45%: LOWEST OVER JONES,
STANLEY, AND LYMAN COUNTIES.
WHILE THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE WILL NOT BE MOVING OVER SD AS IT
HEADS INTO CANADA, ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL. A WARM FRONT HAS
MOVED IN TODAY AND WILL STICK AROUND FOR A BIT FRIDAY. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE MORE WARMTH
INTO SD, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY TO BE 20-25 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND THE WARM FRONT MOVING OUT ON FRIDAY TO CAUSE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MODELS VARY
HOW LONG THE FRONT AND ITS RAIN SITS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SD
SATURDAY, WHICH THEN IMPACTS HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE HREF
HAS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR 0.1 INCH OF RAIN TO OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN
SD BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ENSEMBLES HAVE 10-20%. THE ENSEMBLES
THEN HAVE A 20-50% CHANCE FOR 0.1 INCH TO OCCUR FROM BOTH ROUNDS OF
RAIN FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMBINED. SO, NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME STRONG POST FRONTAL
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AT OR
GREATER THAN 30 MPH, AND 30-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO BE 45 MPH OR
MORE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES BY COOLING THINGS OFF AGAIN.
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN COME IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE OVER CO THAT HAD A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING IT TO THE NORTH INTO SD. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT AS
WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN AN ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET.
THERE IS VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN
GETS, AS IT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE OVER ND AND SD. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS VARY THE TIMING,
TRACK, AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTS OF 25-30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, INCREASING FURTHER ON FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD 30-35 KNOT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THAT PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...BC
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