228
FXUS63 KABR 080547 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1247 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) IS
IN PLACE TODAY. ALL SEVERE THREATS, INCLUDING WIND OF 60 TO
75 MILES PER HOUR, HAIL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING (A LEVEL 2 OF 4 THREAT) IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD AS WELL AS WESTERN
MN. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
THIS MORNING'S STORMS. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAIN AT LEAST, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
EXPECTED IN THE EVENING. AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUND OF
STORMS MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 2-4" OF RAIN IN TOTAL.
- A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD NEAR-NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S). SIGNS POINT TO A WARMING
TREND BEGINNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND HIGHS MAY
POTENTIALLY HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
ALSO, ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 TO EXPIRE AT
MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME, BUT DID REPOSITION THE FLOOD WATCH FROM
NORTH CENTRAL SD OVER TO NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN,
VALID UNTIL 5 AM CDT, TO COVER ONGOING (AND ANY FUTURE
DEVELOPING) HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 WAS EXPANDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SD EASTWARD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SD CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HAVE SEEN
CONVECTION TRYING TO FORM WEST OF PIERRE. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING
POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS. WILL BE WATCHING
THE NORTHERN CWA FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE AREAS JUST NORTH OF HWY 12 WHO RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER THIS MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS ALSO BEEN UPDATE
BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AS OF ABOUT 12:30 PM CDT, TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ARE IN THE
LOW 80S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE STORMS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA, LEAVING BEHIND SOME RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES,
LOCALIZED UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN FLOODING
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST SD TODAY WITH A
NOSE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STORMS WILL START TO FORM IN THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL SD AROUND 5 TO 7
PM. THE ENVIRONMENT LACKS LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT SURFACE TO 1 KM SRH
FROM THE RAP IS PRETTY GOOD ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF TORNADOES. LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND THERE IS PLENTY
OF CAPE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH A 2% TORNADO RISK ALONG AND AROUND THE FRONT. THE HREF SHOWS
STORM MOTION IN GENERALLY A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KTS,
SO VERY SLOW. THIS, COMBINED WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN EAST/NORTHEAST SD.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE LINEAR AND TRANSITION
INTO A MCS WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT BIG STORY OF THE FORECAST IS A RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT WEATHER. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. THIS WILL PUT
HEATRISK INTO THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORIES, WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD REACHING THE EXTREME CATEGORY BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL AFFECT ANYONE. MAKE SURE TO KEEP A LOOK OUT
FOR SIGNS OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY WITH OUTDOOR EVENTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
AREAS OF TSRA/+TSRA ACROSS NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE AFFECTING KABR/KATY FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MVFR/IFR VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
KABR IS DEALING WITH A COMMS ISSUE, BUT IN HOUSE REAL-TIME DATA
SHOULD PERMIT FOR AMENDMENTS TO KABR TAF. KMBG COMMS HAVE ALSO
GONE DOWN, AND WILL BE CARRYING AMD NOT SKED ON THAT TAF.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR, AT LEAST, THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY BEFORE THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL OF VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ006>008-
011-021.
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
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