700
FXUS63 KABR 161518 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1018 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A
30-50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO BE GREATER THAN 45 MPH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SISSETON HILLS.
-LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE FROST TO FORM
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS PICK UP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY, MAINLY TO
DECREASE THE SKY COVER SOME AND LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP AROUND 45-55 MPH
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE PUSHED TO THE SURFACE BY
COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD. THESE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, WITH WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SD DECREASING BELOW 30
MPH BY MID MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAVE ALSO BEEN ABLE TO
INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE ALOFT AND CAUSE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE WINDS DIE
BACK EARLY THIS MORNING, SO DOES THE ABILITY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. THROUGH THE DAY, DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN AS HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER SD. BOTH THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN STUCK
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN, AND WE WILL
HAVE SOME CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
THOSE CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES
COULD HELP FROST TO FORM OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN
TONIGHT. THIS FROST WILL HAVE TO FORM DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BECAUSE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT THIS EVENING, STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN OVER THE AREA. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL DISRUPT THE FROST FORMATION, AND CAN KEEP THE FROST FROM
FORMING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP
AROUND 25-30MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THESE WINDS REACH THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, THEY COULD
BECOME STRONGER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS TO BE GREATER THAN 45 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE COTEAU SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THIS. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING IN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS,
WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN BE MOVING
THROUGH SD SUNDAY, SHIFTING THE WINDS TO BE COMING FROM THE NORTH
AND DECREASING THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS ALONG THE COTEAU. THE DRIER
AIR THAT MOVES IN TODAY WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AND WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
CONTINUING TO SEE STRATUS CIGS BREAKING UP ACROSS THE REGION,
AND RISING FROM MVFR TO VFR. BY 18Z, ALL FOUR TERMINALS SHOULD
BE IN VFR CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY,
BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10
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