634
FXUS63 KABR 270729
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
229 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING, COMING TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. WEST OF THE HIGHWAY, BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS STILL TO COME.
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MILES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
50S THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
RAIN IS ONGOING THIS MORNING DUE TO A COLORADO LOW EJECTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS OF 06Z, THE CODINGTON/HAMLIN/CLARK COUNTY AREA
HAS SEEN THE MOST RAIN, ROUGHLY 1"-1.25" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
ACCORDING TO MRMS ESTIMATES (WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO FAR THIS MORNING). EXPECTING A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE. RAIN WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN SUNRISE AND
NOON THIS MORNING (DEPENDING ON LOCATION). RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON,
LINGERING OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LATTER AREA HAS THE HIGHEST REMAINING
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED, AROUND HALF AN INCH (WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH) THROUGH TONIGHT.
VALUES DECREASE MOVING WEST, AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, DOWN
TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL TO COME OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, A NORTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO ROUGHLY 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT 850MB, WHICH WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE UNDER THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS ALOFT, AND THEREFORE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
LATEST PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM GIVE A 10-30% CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS
AT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (45 MPH), THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOCATED OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MCPHERSON COUNTY IN PARTICULAR BOASTS THE
BEST CHANCES, AND IF ANYWHERE NEEDS A HEADLINE, THAT WOULD PROBABLY
BE THE PLACE. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS BY FAR THE MOST ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
GUSTS, AND OTHER SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (NAMELY HREF AND REFS)
SHOW LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY
STRONG, WHICH LIMITS SOME OF THE CONCERN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDERDOING THE GUSTS. THEREFORE, NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID-
WEEK, ALLOWING COLDER AIR INTO THE ABERDEEN CWA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT OR NEAR FREEZING SIT BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH
THURSDAY, ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW LATE-APRIL NORMALS. THERE
WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS DUE TO JET STREAKS MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE SHOWERS, AND A DRIER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF DEVELOPING RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE. WITH BOTH OF THOSE
CONSIDERATIONS IN MIND, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION ON EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT, WITH LITTLE
CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
GUIDANCE PUTS MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS ALSO THE WINDOW
OF TIME WHEN STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE DEVELOPING. DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS, THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN
OCCUR. BUT, WHETHER IT'S RAINING OR DRIZZLING, VFR/MVFR VISBYS
ARE EXPECTED. AS WINDS PICK UP MORE OF A NORTH OR NORTH-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUB-VFR VISIBILITY SHOULD GO AWAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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