228
FXUS63 KABR 110731
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
231 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES WARMING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SD AND A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT
DOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT IS PROGGED TO DELIVER SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR ALONG WITH A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALL BE THANKS TO AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PARK AND CENTER ITSELF OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE PROGS 500MB
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS TO INCREASE FROM AROUND 588 DAM TODAY TO AROUND
600 DAM ON SUNDAY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF AN EXCEPTIONAL RIDGE AND IS
OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR HEAT WAVES. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT WILL SUPPRESS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
850MB THERMAL PROGS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INDICATE TEMPERATURES OF
+21C TO +29C FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MAINTAINED
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST TO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
ACROSS CENTRAL SD. THE CORE OF THE WARMEST PORTION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MID
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MN WHILE CENTRAL SD SEES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ALL 3
DAYS. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEST
TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR MOST LOCALES DURING
THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF SD WHERE VALUES WILL BE A TAD COOLER. HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS IS FOR
NOW WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SD AND A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST CENTRAL SD
AND THE WATERTOWN AREA. BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, SOME
LOCALES WILL HAVE THEIR CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES THREATENED BY THIS EXCEPTIONAL HEAT WAVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021-
033>037-045-048-051.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-
046.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...MMM
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