793
FXUS63 KABR 202327 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE
COTEAU REGION. STILL SEEING GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT THE PEEVER MESONET,
WITH DOT ROAD REPORTS STARTING TO PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND
SCATTERED SLIPPERY COMMENTS. ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS SITUATION
AND MADE IT VALID THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTION IN
WIND SPEEDS AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT, AND MAY EVEN SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS IN SOME CASES WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WIND
SPEEDS MESH UP THE BEST. LOW TEMP FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND A BALANCE BETWEEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER
AGAINST THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WANE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STILL
LOOKING AT A MILD DAY ON FRIDAY THANKS TO WARMING 925/850MB TEMPS
AND WEST/SOUTHWEST MIXING WINDS. WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S WILL BE
FELT, AND COULD EVEN BE NEARING 50 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CWA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE OUT PERIODS INCLUDE HOW UNSEASONABLY WARM IT WILL
BE SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK (LONGWAVE TROFFING OVER THE NATION'S MID-
SECTION), STILL SEEING AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH ON SUNDAY, WITH
STEADILY COOLING LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY (DOWN TO
NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO NORMS). LOOKS LIKE THE CWA WILL STAY UNDER SOME
FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PRIOR TO MONDAY, THINGS LOOK DRY OVER THIS REGION. FROM
MONDAY ONWARD, MODELS DO DEPICT A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, FROM WHICH A LITTLE BIT OF
PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR OVER THIS CWA. STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES, BUT SEEMS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA STANDS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THAT SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE
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