288
FXUS63 KABR 130614 CCA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
114 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021
VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021
A STRUNG OUT UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT LOW, AND ANY DISTURBANCES THAT
ROTATE AROUND IT. PCPN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS
THE CWA AS WAVE ROTATES INTO MN. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF ND LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AFFECTING
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN HOW COLD THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, OF COURSE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COTEAU. AN INCH OR TWO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOST
OF THE PCPN OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL FAVOR SNOW. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OFF TO THE EAST, WITH ANY LINGERING
PCPN GRADUALLY ENDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF CANADA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW FEEL WINDS WILL
BE MARGINAL ON TUESDAY AND THEREFORE CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO PEG HIGH TO VERY
HIGH ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021
WE RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG
TERM, WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE HAS
BEEN TO REDUCE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD, AND PUSH ANY MENTION FARTHER TO THE
WEST. WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE GREAT FOR CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF WE GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WE'LL BE WATCHING THE ORGANIZING LOW OVER
SOUTHERN WY/CO, AND SEEING HOW FAR EAST INTO OUR AREA ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO GET.
AS THE 500MB WEATHER PATTERN, WE'LL START WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
EXITING LOW OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE NEXT ACROSS NEVADA. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER ALBERTA ON WEDNESDAY WILL MIX WITH THE
NEVADA LOW BRINGING A BROAD TROUGH TO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ON.
THE MAIN/NORTHERN WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STEADY NORTHERLY TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT ON, THEY LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT OVER OUR AREA, WITH
THE OVERALL MESSAGING BEING VERY SIMILAR LEADING TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING MBG,
ABR, AND ATY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MOHR
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