456
FXUS63 KABR 121100 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
500 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S AND 30S. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS, EVEN COLDER THAN NORMAL
FOR MID JANUARY, RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
- A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF 45-75 PERCENT OF SNOW
POSSIBLE MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
MINIMAL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH (70 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF SNOW ACCUMULATING UP ON THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 35-45 MPH. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHERE
PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY
SNOWFALL COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY DUE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO 850MB AND 925MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND AND ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS LEADS TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH RANGES FROM 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY. DESPITE THE ABNORMAL WARMTH,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL ABOUT 10 DEGREES SHORT OF DAILY RECORD
HIGHS.
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY DUE TO A JET STREAK
RIDING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES TO SEE RAIN WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO
INDICATIVE OF A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH. THEREFORE, ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LOW, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
PROFILE MAY BE SATURATED AND LIGHT RAIN MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH FOR TUESDAY WILL BE INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING WINDS TO REACH TO AROUND
40 MILES PER HOUR OR GREATER OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. HOWEVER, WHEN LOOKING AT THE
PROBABILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY (GUSTS TO 45 MILES PER HOUR),
SOMEWHAT OF A DISPARITY BETWEEN THE NBM AND THE HREF ENSEMBLES
BEINGS TO EMERGE. THE NBM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
PROBABILITIES (UP TO 40%) AND FOCUSING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HREF ON THE OTHER HAND, SHIFTS THE
FOCUS FURTHER EAST TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WITH PROBABILITIES
CLOSER TO 20%. TYPICALLY UNDER THESE POST-COLD FRONT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIMES, NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SEE SOME OF THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AND WILL OUTPERFORM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN TERMS
OF WIND SPEEDS. THE KEY DIFFERENCE THIS TIME IS THAT INSTEAD OF A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, THE FRONT WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PROGRESS SOUTH. THIS DIFFERING SETUP
WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE A BIT STRONGER OF A
HOLD FURTHER EAST THAN WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
PUSHES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE MORE TOWARDS THE AFOREMENTIONED HREF
SOLUTION, AT LEAST FOR LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS. THE CAVEAT TO
THAT CONCLUSION IS THAT NBM VALUES TEND TO BE UNDERDONE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW, SO WHILE THE HREF IS MAYBE BETTER ON LOCATION, THE
PROBABILITIES ARE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD A BIT TOO LOW. ALL THAT TO SAY
IS THAT A CLOSE EYE WILL BE KEPT ON THE TRENDS, AND A WIND ADVISORY
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
IN THE OUT PERIODS, IT'S STILL THE NORTHWEST FLOW (POSITIVE PNA
PATTERN) SHOW. WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS, LOW LEVEL CAA IS AT A PREMIUM,
STREAMING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FROPA.
EXPECTING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN POST-COLD-FRONTAL AIR TO DEVELOP AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
COLD (LIKE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WAA HEADING INTO THURSDAY
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES, CWA-WIDE, BACK UP INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE
THE ARCTIC AIR STRIKES BACK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES FALL DOWN INTO BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND, AT LEAST, THE START OF THE WEEKEND, PER MOST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE-BASED OUTPUT.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE (OR STRONGER) LOW LEVEL CAA AND PRESSURE
RISES TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, HEADING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, SUPPORTS AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS 30MPH OR GREATER AND/OR WIND GUSTS 45MPH OR
GREATER), WITH ENSEMBLES-BASED PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH WIND WARNING
GUSTS POTENTIAL HEADING INTO FRIDAY CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ~55 TO 85
PERCENT. WHILE THE TUESDAY NIGHT ENVIRONMENT MAY ONLY BE ABLE TO EEK
OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE STRONG WIND ENVIRONMENT (ISOLATED
VISBY REDUCTION SCENARIO AT WORST), THE SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CURRENTLY CONTAINS A ~70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 20S INTO
THE TEENS AND SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING TO BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THIS IS CREATING DRIFTING TO SCATTERED BLOWING SNOW
OUTPUT FROM THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL RIGHT NOW FOR SAID TIMEFRAME. IF
SNOWFALL IS GREATER (MODEL REALLY REACTS ONCE SNOWFALL REACHES 2
INCHES), OR TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER, OR SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
STRONGER, THE NET RESULT COULD BE A MORE PRONOUNCED REDUCTION OF
VISIBILITY, AND A GREATER NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE, AND
NOT JUST A WIND HEADLINE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TAKING WHAT
GUIDANCE IS GIVING RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A RANGE OF
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EITHER
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. AND, WHILE IT IS JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS 7-
DAY FORECAST, BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE (THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE) FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 18TH THROUGH THE
24TH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN BEING WINDS. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AT THE
LOWER- AND MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD, AND WILL CREATE SOME EXTENDED PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR
LASTING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WIND
SHEAR HAS BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, UP TO 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BC
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