549
FXUS63 KABR 101440 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABNORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MILES PER HOUR
WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
TODAY. LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
- THE ABNORMAL WARMTH AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME BLOWING DUST WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY, CREATING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT
TIMES.
- PATTERN CHANGES TO COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
NO CHANGES PLANNED, AT THIS TIME, TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS GOING TO BE FLIRTING BETWEEN HIGH
AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS AND EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
TODAY. STICKING WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OVER THAT
AREA FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY STEM FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED
MAINLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY. STRONG
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL REACH UP TO 25
TO 35 MILES PER HOUR IN THAT AREA, WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO
45 MILES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRAIRIE
COTEAU DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
STRONGEST WINDS FROM COINCIDING WITH THE LOWEST HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO 30 MILES PER HOUR WILL STILL BE
PRESENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ABNORMAL WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON
(25+ CELSIUS AT 850MB TRANSLATES TO NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S) WILL PUSH HUMIDITY DOWN TO 25-35% EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL FALL JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CRITERIA, AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE IMPACTS INSTEAD. GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER WILL REACH THE HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF BROWN
AND SPINK DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR STORY CAN BE TOLD OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE
TO HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AT TIMES. HOWEVER, WITH
THE DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED OVER THAT AREA AS
WELL, BY THE TIME HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOM OUT GUSTS WILL HAVE
DROPPED TO 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. THEREFORE, CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL ALSO REMAIN FREE OF ANY HEADLINES, BUT WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVER BOTH AREAS OF CONCERN
TODAY. IN ADDITION, THE HARVEST SEASON MEANS THAT THESE STRONG
WINDS MAY KICK UP SOME DUST TODAY AS WELL, POSSIBLY CREATING
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL COME ON MONDAY. A
SMALL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS, BUT THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM WILL KEEP RAIN RATES FAIRLY LOW. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN TO FALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, PERHAPS EXTENDING
INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA.
GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING HOLD STEADY AT 10-40%, INCREASING MOVING
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DEVELOPING A COLORADO LOW INTO THE REGION BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS HAS ONLY GROWN, MEDIAN VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
NOW SIT BETWEEN HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MOSTLY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL INFILTRATE INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR SOME
FLURRIES TO FLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR STILL FORECAST TO AFFECT KATY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
20 TO 30 KTS OVER KABR/KATY TODAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT
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