245
FXUS63 KABR 192330 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND THIS EVENING. THERE IS
A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT THEY WILL SKIM WEST CENTRAL MN LATER AND
POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY, LEAVING BEHIND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WHILE THE
REGION IS SEEING COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE
60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND MN
LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF AN ENSEMBLE CAM SUGGESTS PCPN COULD REACH AS
FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 29. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S, IN WESTERN MINNESOTA, TO THE UPPER 50S, IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE LONG TERM WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE WEST COAST RIDGE DOES BREAK
DOWN LATER NEXT WEEK WITH PCPN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SISSETON
HILLS. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S, OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY'S
READINGS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOW CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO OUR
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE
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