639
FXUS63 KABR 011731 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1131 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN,
THEN MIX WITH SNOW ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE. NO UPDATES TO THE
TODAY PERIOD FORECAST PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, AS WE HAVE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE US/CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG NW-SE ORIENTATED
500MB JET (80-85KTS) IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST SD AND IS HELPING
SLIDE MID CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL ND AND THROUGH EASTERN SD. FARTHER TO
THE WEST, THERE'S AN AREA OF STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD AND NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN ND. FINALLY AT THE
SURFACE, A 1027MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
ND/MN/CANADIAN BORDER AND DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE COLD
AIR THAT MOVED IN BEHIND YESTERDAY MORNING'S COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN SEEN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME, ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 35F COLDER AND CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S AS OF 2AM.
FOR TODAY, THE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE ND/MN/CANADIAN BORDER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHERN MN BY
THIS EVENING. THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH THEM BEING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVER EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD AIR
THAT SWEPT IN BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 20S IN WEST CENTRAL MN TO
LOWER 40S IN CENTRAL SD). THE BIG QUESTION WITH THE FORECAST WILL BE
HOW THE CLOUDS EVOLVE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. BASED ON UPSTREAM
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB, THERE'S PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS
UPSTREAM INTO CANADA, SO AT A MINIMUM EXPECT PERIODS OF THAT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THEN FOR THE MVFR OR LOW END VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN ND
INTO CENTRAL SD, EXPECT THAT TO SLOWLY START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE
HIGH AND AN 850MB RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
HELP PUSH THE CLOUDS. BUT DON'T EXPECT THEM TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PART OF SD UNTIL AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO THEN
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THEM AS THEY SHIFT TO THE ENE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WE'LL SEE A GOOD UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY 10-15C FROM THIS AFTERNOON
TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE, HIGHS WILL RISE BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (UPPER 40S AND 50S) ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL WITH GENERAL TRENDS AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES. A DEEP TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND EJECT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLORADO LOW WILL FORM AND EJECT
INTO KANSAS BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN
SD. AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES, A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL FALL, WITH
THE GEFS PLUMES MEAN AVERAGING AROUND .25 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. AT ANY RATE, IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP AS WELL AS THE LOW
DEEPENS AND PULLS INTO THE PLAINS.
THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD BE PROBLEM FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY DEEPENS AND
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE LOW WILL
DETERMINE A LOT.
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKING TO AFFECT MOSTLY SOUTHERN SD. RIGHT NOW ITS NOT A CONCERN
BUT IT WILL WATCHED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) PUSH OUT OF KMBG WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...DORN
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