659
FXUS63 KABR 281116 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
616 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAINLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. WEEKEND HIGHS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 60S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALBEIT WITH MUCH
BRIEFER DURATION AND MUCH LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE RECENTLY
DEPARTED SYSTEM. THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING PARTS
OF STANLEY, JONES, AND LYMAN COUNTIES. DEVELOPING SHOWERS MAY NEED
TO DO A LITTLE BIT OF WORK ON SATURATING THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, BUT
WILL STILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES GIVE ROUGHLY A 0-20%
CHANCE TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THAT
STANLEY/JONES/LYMAN AREA. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER IN THE EVENING.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ARE BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH
THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE TROUGH
WILL CREATE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BOTH SETUPS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR: DRY LOWER-LEVELS, A
SATURATED LAYER EXTENDING BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE 750MB-600MB LAYER, AND
POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER. THE LATTER WILL, DESPITE
SOME MARGINAL MUCAPE (<250 J/KG), PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING
INTO ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS, DESPITE SOME STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AIDING THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER IN TERMS OF
EASE OF CONVECTION. ALL THAT TO SAY, WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED EITHER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, SETTLING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PROGRESSION WILL STILL PUT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ENOUGH
TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S). CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, GENERATING MORE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
KPIR COMES THE CLOSEST TO SUB-VFR (CIGS) CONDITIONS TODAY WHEN
SHOWERS WORK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GUIDANCE KEEPS
RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF KPIR, SO LEAVING KPIR DRY FOR NOW.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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