380  
FXUS63 KABR 080525 AAB  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  
 
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 7 DAY FORECAST,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES COULD BUMP BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S  
THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
OTHER THAN A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS  
MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO  
POPS AND CLEARED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH, ACCORDINGLY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ALL THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST AND  
SOUTHEAST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS  
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE,  
MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS  
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING  
AND BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
WITH THICKER MORNING CLOUD COVER WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT  
WAS IN PLACE, IT HAS KEPT A LID SO TO SPEAK ON CONVECTION REALLY  
TAKING OFF SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN  
ZONES. INSTABILITY REMAINS "MUTED", BUT STILL AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG  
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. WHERE SUNSHINE HAS RETURNED,  
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, MLCAPE VALUES ARE A BIT MORE HIGHER CLOSER  
TO 2000 J/KG. IN THOSE ZONES, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT MORE  
FAVORABLE AS WELL RANGING FROM 35-45 KTS. VSBL SATL SHOWS AGITATED  
CU FIELDS ACROSS DEWEY COUNTY AND PARTS OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES,  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 14. CONVECTION HAS FIRED OUT OF THAT FIELD  
IN DEWEY COUNTY. OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES, AROUND THE WATERTOWN AND  
ORTONVILLE AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST IS ALSO SEEING SOME  
ACTIVE CONVECTION. THESE WILL POTENTIALLY BE AREAS TO MONITOR FOR  
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  
 
THERE REMAINS A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SFC TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT  
DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE  
NORTHWEST CORNER OF SD. SO, WITH THE GIVEN ENVIRONMENT STILL IN  
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WOULD  
ANTICIPATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AS THESE SFC FEATURES  
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA. CAM SOLUTIONS MORE  
OR LESS SHOW CONVECTION HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND BACK TO THE WEST IN THE  
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CENTRAL SD, BUT THEY AREN'T CONVINCED THAT  
WIDESPREAD ROBUST CONVECTION WILL GET GOING. SO, WE'LL JUST HAVE TO  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT IT WOULD  
APPEAR THAT THE AREAS TO WATCH MORE CLOSELY WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTH  
CENTRAL ZONES AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES, SOUTH AND EAST OF THE  
WATERTOWN AREA. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR CWA WITH 3 DIFFERENT  
LEVELS OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS, FROM A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF  
5) TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) TO AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF  
5) THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS  
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE STRONGER  
CELLS THAT DEVELOP.  
 
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH, THE UPPER LEVEL MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS  
CURRENT ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST AND AWAY FROM  
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW  
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AND NOT CLEARING OUR  
SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BEGIN TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA LEADING TO A MORE DRIER AND STABLE DAY.  
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BEHIND HELD JUST BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK. FARTHER  
WEST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A  
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PART  
OF THE CONUS. AFTERNOON READINGS MAY TOP OUT CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES  
ACROSS OUR WEST RIVER ZONES. A BIT OF A SHORT TERM HEAT BUBBLE WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW  
TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN  
LOOKS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEP BACK UP  
AS A RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE ROUNDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD TOUCH OFF ANOTHER  
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY INTO EARLY  
FRIDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE  
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS MORE QUIET AND DRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KPIR AND KMBG FOR THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. KABR WILL HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM FOG  
STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING, AND KATY IS STARTING SO  
SHOW FOG NOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR KABR AND  
POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS AT KATY. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS, THERE  
WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT  
WINDS.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...12  
DISCUSSION...VIPOND  
AVIATION...12  
 
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