653
FXUS63 KABR 230520
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL TO
EASTERN SD, EAST OF THE MO RIVER, WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE
AT TIMES. PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-60S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, 10 TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- RAIN RETURNS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF 40-60% ON MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
UPDATED SKY COVER FOR SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD, BUT OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
UPDATE FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THIS SETUP, MANY HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL
ONLY RESOLVING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
IN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE FOG IN NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR THE
PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER STRETCHING
TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. AT THE LOWEST, VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO
AROUND A HALF MILE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, POTENTIALLY CREATING
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING, POTENTIALLY TURNING PATCHES
OF THE FOG INTO FREEZING FOG.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY IN THE MID-
60S, AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY RISE ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES, KEEPING HUMIDITY UPWARDS OF
35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WARMING PERIOD AND THEREBY KEEPING THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THIS WEEKEND A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS COULD PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 35 MILE PER
HOUR GUSTS, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ON SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE HIGH ON WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL,
GIVING POCKETS OF 50-70% CHANCE OF REACHING CRITERIA (ON BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30MPH AND GUSTS TO 45MPH) AND EXPANDING TO A
BROADER COVERAGE OF 50-70% CHANCE SUNDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT LOWER AT THIS TIME HOWEVER DUE TO A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODELED STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME SETUPS HAVE THE LOW-
LEVEL JET ITSELF BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHICH WOULD NOT BE
CONDUCIVE TO ADVISORY STRENGTH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. ALL THIS TO SAY
THAT WHILE THE TIME PERIOD IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON, THERE WILL BE
A LOT TO RESOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS.
NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ENTRANCE
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW PRESSURE CENTER PRODUCED BY THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CANADA,
THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ABERDEEN CWA. ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF
DISAGREEMENT ON MAINLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT HAVE BEGUN TO
CONVERGE ON A MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE MOST
LIKELY FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. AT THIS POINT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH THE FORCING
PROVIDED BY THE FRONT IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST NBM 24 HOUR QPF PROBABILITIES (ENDING
12Z TUESDAY MORNING) INDICATES GIVES A BROAD 40-50% CHANCE TO SEE
0.25" OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A 25-35% OF 0.5" INCHES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
FOCUS FOR THE TAFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR KABR/KATY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME
TRENDS IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS TO SHIFTING THE FOG A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIGHT UNDER THE SURFACE LOW. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR FOG ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU (ALREADY SEEING HINTS OF THAT AT KBTN)
AND ALSO IN THE KATY AREA. THUS, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TEMPO
FG/BR FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...SRF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page