254
FXUS63 KABR 301945
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
245 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THIS EVENING. LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UNDER
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS POTENTIALLY SEEING ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH.
- LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS FRIDAY, AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GUST NEAR 30-40MPH, STRONGEST OVER
NORTHERN SD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY IS IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WIDE
SWATH OF CUMULUS CLOUDS BECOMING GLACIATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SD. SMALL HAIL AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGEST SMALL/WEAK STORMS. WE'RE ALSO NOTING THE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ROTATION TO WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN ND THAT HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL HELP ENHANCE THE CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN ND AND NORTHEASTERN
SD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS - KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING A
BIT LONGER. THE WEAK LOW WILL SHIFT OVER OUR EASTERN SD/MN BORDER BY
00Z, AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 06Z FRIDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER OUR AREA.
THE 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL
SLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE
REMAINING OVER EASTERN SD THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE,
THAT AFTER 2 DAYS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES,
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND OF 15-20MPH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX VALUES WILL BE LOW FRIDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
BEHIND A WARM FRONT AS THE MAIN LOW STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO NORTHEASTERN MT. THE LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ND 12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING MOSTLY INTO EASTERN ND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EXITING INTO CENTRAL MN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (CURRENTLY ONLY AROUND A
20% CHANCE FOR 00-06Z SUNDAY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.
A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN TUESDAY. WE'LL SEE HOW THE
TREND CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY-
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAYS, RETURNING BACK INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN (OR AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. VCSH HAVE BEEN COMMON AT
MOST OF THE AIRPORTS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEING AT
ATY AFTER 1930Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ATY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BECOME AGITATED NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN, THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06
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