195
FXUS63 KABR 312354
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
654 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS CHILLY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S SETTLE IN. THIS COOL TREND
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS READINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN OUR NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE
700-500MB LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHERN MN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAIN,
WITH A SLOWER LESSENING OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, THE
ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE MAIN THEME IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SURROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF THE
TWO TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEAST AND CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL MN. COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING
IN PLACE LEADING TO BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO YIELD BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH POCKETS OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TRACKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF ND INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH
THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN THE PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM. ALTHOUGH,
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OCCURRING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PRAIRIE COTEAU EASTWARD INTO THE I-29
CORRIDOR. A CHECK OF AREA WEBCAMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY INDICATE SNOW
HAS NOT STUCK TO THE SURFACE.
GUIDANCE PROGS THIS UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY, WE'LL BEGIN TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THE PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.
A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TODAY AND WE'LL SLIP BACK
INTO THE 30S AFTER SUNSET. SO, THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT FEEL BRISK FOR THOSE VENTURING
OUTDOORS THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SFC RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL AID IN SHUTTING DOWN THE WINDS BUT MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT READINGS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 40S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON
SUNDAY WILL BOOST 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO A +10C TO +15C RANGE WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PROVINCES OF CANADA. A WARM FRONT WILL BE RACING OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WE'LL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH PEAK HEATING TIME BEFORE
THAT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWING INTO THE AREA BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON. A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND COMBINED WITH THOSE WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FROPA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KNOCK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL
DRAW IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. NEARLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH TAKE HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
ACROSS OUR AREA RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ATY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER (MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS) COULD RETURN TO VFR AT
MBG AS EARLY AS 02Z, AT ABR BY 13Z, AND AT ATY CLOSER TO 15Z
FRIDAY. WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS BY 08Z.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...06
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