288  
FXUS63 KABR 130614 CCA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
114 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021  
 
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
A STRUNG OUT UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY  
SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL  
CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT LOW, AND ANY DISTURBANCES THAT  
ROTATE AROUND IT. PCPN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS  
THE CWA AS WAVE ROTATES INTO MN. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED  
TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF ND LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AFFECTING  
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE  
GIVEN HOW COLD THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, OF COURSE  
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COTEAU. AN INCH OR TWO IS  
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOST  
OF THE PCPN OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL FAVOR SNOW. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT  
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OFF TO THE EAST, WITH ANY LINGERING  
PCPN GRADUALLY ENDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF CANADA ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT  
TIMES OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC  
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW FEEL WINDS WILL  
BE MARGINAL ON TUESDAY AND THEREFORE CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON ANY  
HIGHLIGHTS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO PEG HIGH TO VERY  
HIGH ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
WE RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG  
TERM, WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF  
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE HAS  
BEEN TO REDUCE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE  
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD, AND PUSH ANY MENTION FARTHER TO THE  
WEST. WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE GREAT FOR CENTRAL SOUTH  
DAKOTA, WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF WE GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE  
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WE'LL BE WATCHING THE ORGANIZING LOW OVER  
SOUTHERN WY/CO, AND SEEING HOW FAR EAST INTO OUR AREA ANY  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO GET.  
 
AS THE 500MB WEATHER PATTERN, WE'LL START WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE  
EXITING LOW OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE NEXT ACROSS NEVADA. A  
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER ALBERTA ON WEDNESDAY WILL MIX WITH THE  
NEVADA LOW BRINGING A BROAD TROUGH TO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ON.  
THE MAIN/NORTHERN WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY  
STEADY NORTHERLY TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT-  
MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH FOR  
FRIDAY NIGHT ON, THEY LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT OVER OUR AREA, WITH  
THE OVERALL MESSAGING BEING VERY SIMILAR LEADING TO MODERATE  
CONFIDENCE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
A MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH  
TUESDAY EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO  
TUESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING MBG,  
ABR, AND ATY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MOHR  
SHORT TERM...TDK  
LONG TERM...KF  
AVIATION...MOHR  
 
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