548
FXUS63 KABR 280817
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST, ALLOWING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. ANY FOG THAT HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY MIXING OUT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF MID LEVEL
FEATURES, BUT MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE. A FAVORABLE
MIXING DIRECTION AND GRADIENT WILL SET US UP FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND
30MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MAKES A SLOW PROGRESSION, SO
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE CWA WON'T BE TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND A BREEZE WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MAYBE SOME FOG IN THE MORNING BUT GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC AND
DRYING WIND ALL DAY WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE, BUT NIGHTS
ARE LONG AND THERE IS A LOT OF RECENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND WATCH. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH WEST RIVER FRIDAY, WITH AN UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021
THE MAJOR THEME IN THE OUT PERIODS IS THE COLD. THE PERIOD OPENS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE THE END OF THE SATURDAY DAY
PERIOD, AND BY ALL ACCOUNTS, AT THIS POINT, IT IS STILL A DRY FROPA.
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THOUGH, STRONG COLD FRONTS LIKE THIS CAN AND
SOMETIMES DO PRODUCE SOME ISO'D/WDLY SCT'D "SHOWERS" ALONG THEM,
DETECTABLE ON RADAR, BUT PERHAPS NOT GENERATING MORE THAN A TRACE OF
PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FOR TEMPERATURE, AS AREAS THAT START
OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY PROBABLY DON'T SEE MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
DURING THE DAY, WHILE AREAS THAT START OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY
BE ABLE TO WARM SOME. THOSE PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AREAS WILL SEE THE
TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT, IF NOT FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH THE
MID-DAY THROUGH LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING, WITH LOW LEVEL CAA THAT BEGINS ON SATURDAY
NEVER REALLY SHUTTING OFF PRIOR TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOMALOUSLY COLD FOR THE PERIOD 10/30 TO 11/3 SEEMS A REASONABLE WAY
TO DESCRIBE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE BRIEFLY AT KATY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART THESE HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST ALONG WITH ANY MVFR CIGS.
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY EXPANDING INTO THE KATY AREA, THIS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS,
THOUGH WITH A CAVEAT. WITH CLEARING, WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY
DEVELOP DUE TO FOG AT KABR/KATY, THOUGH NOT VERY CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST ANY CHANCE FOR FOG
DIMINISHES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CONNELLY
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