299
FXUS63 KABR 131717
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1117 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR WIND
CHILLS OF -20 TO -35 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS NEAR THESE VALUES
COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 10
MINUTES.
- WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL GUST OF 30 TO 40 MPH FROM THE
MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA (PRAIRIE COTEAU). THESE WINDS AND RECENT SNOW OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL DRIFTING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
SNOWFALL REPORTS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL
SD, WITH 4" OF NEW SNOW NEAR ONIDA, 3.5" NEAR HIGHMORE AND 1.5"
NEAR SENECA, 2.5" IN PIERRE, AND 3.0" NEAR HAYES. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LIGHT SNOW AROUND
PIERRE AND SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE
COLD WEATHER TONIGHT, AND THE INCREASED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
AS OF 2AM RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
FROM DEWEY COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH HYDE COUNTY WITH HREF
SNOWFALL RATES FORECAST AROUND A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 12Z.
KPIR IS DOWN TO 1SM AND KMBG AT 4SM. CAMS/HREF OVERALL AGREE THAT
THE LAST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT OUR SOUTHERN CWA AROUND 14-15Z WITH
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS FORECAST OF 1 TO AROUND 3 INCHES. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM CST. OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
A 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH 925MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -16C TO -21C
WITH 850MB CLIMO TEMPS IN THE 5 TO 10TH PERCENTILE, ALMOST 2
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO! WITH THIS, HREF INDICATES HIGHS WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO,
COLDEST JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD, WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE NBM.
EC EFI INDICATES VALUES OF -0.8 TO -0.9 EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF ZERO OVER EASTERN SD FOR MAXT TODAY.
SISSETON'S RECORD LOW HIGH TODAY IS ZERO SET IN 1931 WITH A FORECAST
HIGH OF 1 TODAY, SO IT WILL BE CLOSE! WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES, WINDS BECOMING LIGHT, AND A SNOWPACK,
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TANK TONIGHT. KEPT
THE TREND OF GOING A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AS LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE EVEN
COLDER TEMPS OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AS NBM PROBABILITY OF LOWS AT OR
BELOW -20 IS 30-50% FROM NORTHERN SPINK THROUGH BROWN AND WESTERN
MARSHALL/DAY COUNTIES. PROB OF TEMPS BELOW -25 IS LESS THAN 25% FOR
THIS AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 30
BELOW ZERO, AGAIN LOWEST WIND CHILLS JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD. DUE
TO THIS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 6PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 16Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE THE HIGH
CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEAST, WITH THE CWA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
IT AS WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. TO OUR WEST, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM WY THROUGH MT, SOUTH OF A LOW OVER
ALBERTA AT 12Z, WITH THIS TROUGH SLIDING A BIT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE, WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER CENTRAL SD SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EASTWARD OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20KTS AND GUST
UP TO 35KTS, HIGHEST OVER THE COTEAU. WITH THESE WINDS AND FRESH
SNOW FROM THIS MORNING, PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
SD AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SD THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL SEE
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE COTEAU TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE HERE,
THIS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
FLOW, TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO THE UPPER 30S, COLDEST CLOSER TO THE HIGH OVER WESTERN MN
WITH WARMEST TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WIND CHILLS JAMES VALLEY
AND EASTWARD WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO STILL AROUND
NOON, AND WARMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA,
NAM BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICTING A TEMPERATURE AT 2500FT OF +17C.
MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURE LAG WITH A DUE SOUTH WIND. FLOW IS
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FROM TOP TO BOTTOM ABOVE THE NBL
(UNIDIRECTIONAL) FOR THE SUMMIT SITE. BUFKIT ALSO HAS 50KTS IN THE
CRITICAL LAYER SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SISSETON HILLS DOWNSLOPE
SUNDAY NIGHT. NBM CAPTURES THIS TO SOME EXTENT, SO WILL LEAVE THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST ALONE AS IT IS AT THE TAIL END OF SOME OF THE
CAMS BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDER-REPRESENTATIVE OF
DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL. TOTAL DURATION IS ALSO ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS
AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. FUN FACT IS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 DEGREES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION, THOSE MIXED WINDS MIGHT
BE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN COMPARISON TO THE SURROUNDING AREA.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS FOR MONDAY WITH A WEST NORTHWEST COMPONENT.
TEMPERATURES MAY GET FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK DESPITE
SNOWPACK UP IN THE NORTHEAST, SO LONG AS WE MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH
SUGGESTED BY NBM WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10KTS. A 2020MB SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD MEANING MIXING IS PROBABLY OVER REPRESENTATIVE. NBM
25TH/75TH RANGE FOR HIGHS IS ONLY ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES. FOR THE JAMES
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST, THE LOWER BOUND RUNS BETWEEN UPPER 20 TO LOW
30, TO A HIGH END OF MID/UPPER 30S, WITH THE HIGHEST RANGE OF ABOUT
7 DEGREES OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA.
MIXING WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY WITH MILD AIR ALOFT. THE MILD AIR MORE
OR LESS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. EARLY THURSDAY, A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS US BACK TO THE REALITY OF WINTER IN THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE LOW IS IN SOUTHERN CANADA, SO LITTLE ACTUAL
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE PIR, WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE MID CLOUDS CLEAR WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME INDICATIONS OF
THE COLD AIR OVER THE MO RIVER RESULTING IN SMALL STREAMERS OF
RIVER ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW WHERE THERE IS OPEN WATER. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION, BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS BY 15Z OVER CENTRAL SD (MAINLY
MBG/PIR/ABR).
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...06
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