858
FXUS63 KABR 131744 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, ALONG WITH DAILY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-30%.
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WEST OF THE MO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
- WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH AND OPEN FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN PLACE FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY ADJUSTED TD'S TO BRING
THEM MORE IN LINE WITH THIS MORNING'S OBSERVATIONS. WILL BE
MONITORING AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS CENTRAL SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR OUR WEST RIVER ZONES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 MPH OR LESS. WINDS
EAST OF THE MO RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS, AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 25
MPH. WEST RIVER, WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST UP TO 30 TO 35
MPH PROMPTING A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT (10 AM TO 9
PM MDT).
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AGAIN, LOCALIZED GUSTS OF
50 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE ND BORDER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DO NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. THEREFORE, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM 1 PM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH
10 PM FRIDAY FOR AREAS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER AND WEST. AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER ARE ADDED TO THE WATCH FRIDAY AT 11 AM CDT.
ALSO WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST.
THE BLOWING DUST MODEL SHOWS AN AREA OF DUST MOVING IN FROM WESTERN
SD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS WELL WITH THURSDAY STILL EXPECTED
TO BE THE WARMEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN THE CHANCE OF MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS
ABOUT 60 TO 70% AROUND AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS IS AN
INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE COULD
GET ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO COMPLETE GREEN UP AND HOPEFULLY REDUCE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION MONDAY HAS A 35 TO
45% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPIR/KMBG AND THEN SPREAD EAST AND INCREASE AT KABR/KATY LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
START TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD AT KPIR/KMBG.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ003-015-033-045.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-
051.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...VIPOND
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