542
FXUS63 KABR 221541 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1041 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING OVER CENTRAL SD, EXPANDING TO
NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO A
50-70% CHANCE.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN SD. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, LIGHTING, AND STRONG WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ARE IN THE 60S WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
TODAY WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE UPGRADED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THE MAIN
THREATS LOOK TO BE HAIL AND WIND. THE NAM NEST IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
TO HAVE A BIT OF A BOWING FORMATION TO THE STORMS LATER IN THE
EVENING WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS.
THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THOSE STORMS WILL BE RATHER MOIST. PWAT VALUES
ARE AGAIN IN THE 99TH TO 99.5TH NAEFS PERCENTILE AND 1.5" OVER
CENTRAL SD. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL DURING STORMS.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE MLCAPE WITH GENERALLY 1100-1200
J/KG. LAPSE RATES HAVE ACTUALLY COME DOWN A LITTLE IN DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. LOOKING AT MONDAY, PWAT ISN'T AS IMPRESSIVE BUT MLCAPE
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500 J/KG WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND
7.5 C/KM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SMOKE TODAY, BUT THERE
IS A NARROW BAND OF SOME INCREASED CONCENTRATIONS OVER THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD JUST BRING A SLIGHT HAZE TO THE SKIES,
NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DEPARTS TODAY AND LEADS TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. TRIED TO SHOW A LITTLE DECREASE IN CIGS IN CENTRAL SD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ADDED IN A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY NEARING KPIR DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SRF
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