486
FXUS63 KABR 240608 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
108 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. THE BAND OF RAIN MAY PUSH AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS HIGHWAY 212 TONIGHT. WITH SNOW MELT TODAY, ALONG
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND 1 KM
DEEP AT BEST, WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PCPN
MAY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA, OR WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP. MID
LEVELS AT THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DRY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO
DETERMINE THIS LINE OR WHETHER THE DRIER MID LEVEL WILL KEEP
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIP FROM FALLING AT ALL. KEPT ANY
MENTION RAIN OR SNOW FOR NOW.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE EAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN STARTING TUESDAY HELPING TO BUMP
TEMPS UP TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SNOW FREE (OR LOW
SNOW) AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS SOAR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASED SFC MIXING AND H85 TEMPS AS HIGH AS +14C. THE POTENTIAL,
IF NOT FOR THE SNOW PACK, WOULD BE FOR TEMPS IN THE 60S. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE ALSO THE ONLY NIGHTS WITH FORECAST
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THESE TEMP TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON SNOW MELT AND FLOODING.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SD/WEST
CENTRAL MN. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK, ELONGATED SFC LOW. QPF OUTLOOK IS VERY LOW FOR THIS EVENT WITH
DRY SFC AND MID LEVELS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THIS CWA GETTING A SHOWER OR TWO. THE NEXT CHANCE WILL BE WITH AN
END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT ON THIS LOW.
HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH PERHAPS A
RESIDUAL CHANCE FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR ON UPPER TROUGH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MVFR,IFR) ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT, CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH GIVEN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN
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