484
FXUS63 KABR 031727
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A VERY SMALL MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL HAVE
STORMS IN THE AREA, HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA,
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST SD INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY DOWN TO 2
MILES OR LESS.
- OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING AT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
AS OF 12:30 PM CDT, TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ARE IN THE 80S
TO LOW 90S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
MOVE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, BECOMING EASTERLY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE THREAT HAS SHIFTED NORTH, THERE IS STILL A
SMALL PORTION OF ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES AND CAMS HAVE THE STORMS STAYING TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST, HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
ACTUALLY SEE SEVERE STORMS. IF A STORM DOES HAPPEN TO CLIP OUR
AREA, HAZARDS WILL BE 60 MPH WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH. SOME
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO AROUND 2 MILES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH ITS AXIS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGHER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS REALLY
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA, RANGING FROM ABOUT
1000 J/KG TO OVER 2000 J/KG SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, MOST AGREE
THAT BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KTS. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BULK SHEAR IS ABOUT THE SAME BUT MORE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW MLCAPE CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG. DUE TO THE LOW
SHEAR, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OUT OF MONTANA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES TO THE AREA, DRAWING MOISTURE UP FROM AN
OPEN GULF. PWATS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO
1.75" RANGE OR THE 99.5 NAEFS PERCENTILES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME, BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE SPC
OUTLOOKS ONCE THIS TIME PERIOD MOVES INTO THE DAYS 1-3 RANGE.
THE RIDGE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
PUSHING TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WINDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SD CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE UNREMARKABLE UNTIL MONDAY.
WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE, WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO
BE IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND PRAIRIE
COTEAU OF EASTERN SD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME FOG
COULD MOVE INTO KABR AND KATY BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF AND HOW MUCH IT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13
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