088
FXUS63 KDLH 281141
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG DISSIPATES WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
- QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE THE NEXT CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT - FRIDAY:
A PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE,
CALM TO VERY LIGHT WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO AREAS
OF FOG AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL THEN BURN OFF WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. THE DENSE FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS AND ASSESS WHETHER
OR NOT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SUNRISE BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S FOR MOST
OF THE NORTHLAND NOT IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN THE IRON RANGE AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER-30S.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO START. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM LATE-SUMMER DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, WARMEST IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST, HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE WEST FROM MID-AFTERNOON ONWARDS.
THIS WEEKEND:
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY WILL PUSH THE NOSE OF A LOW- LEVEL JET INTO
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND, WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A WEAK WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
INTERACTING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
00Z SET OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION MAKES IT
INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH A FEW MODELS KEEPING THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EARLY MORNING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS
THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH. OTHER MODELS THAT DO BRING THE
NORTHLAND RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY KEEP THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-2. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS 40-65% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-2
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO EARLY EVENING, ENDING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE
EVENING. WITH GENERALLY 30 KTS OR LESS OF BULK SHEAR AND FAIRLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE. AS FOR
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, HREF 24-HOUR
LPMM VALUES SHOW SOME POCKETS OF 0.5-1" MAINLY IN NW WI WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE OVERHEAD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF 1.5O-1.85" WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM. OTHERWISE,
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.25" OR LESS ON A MORE
SCATTERED BASIS.
FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS HIGHLIGHTED BY
FLATTENED RIDGING ALOFT WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE EASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN MN BORDER LOOKS TO HAVE
A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHILE A FARTHER NORTH LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA BORDER MAY HAVE A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE TWO FRONTAL FEATURES SET UP, PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BE CONDITIONALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(HAIL AND WIND GUST THREATS) GIVEN MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS WHETHER OR
NOT THE MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY ROBUST 700-800
MB CAPPING INVERSION (CIN VALUES OF 200-300 J/KG). GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING NEAR NBM VALUES OF 30-50% OR LESS. BETTER
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-75%) MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPER
TROUGHING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, AS WELL AS INTERACTION WITH A SURFACE
WARM FRONT IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/FRIDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO
KEEPING THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT EXPANDS ACROSS MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS BUILDING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT, RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. IF
FOG DOES DEVELOP IT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY IS
ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE AN INACTIVE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEPART THE REGION AND WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO INCREASE A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE
LOW 80S.
WEEKEND:
THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. CROSS
BARRIER FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME
RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z SUITE OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A HIGH AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE QPF FIELDS BUT LEVERAGING THE ENSEMBLES SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE NBM IS
HIGHLIGHTING POPS OF 40-60%. BOTH THE LOW PRESSURE AND LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PERSIST BUT BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO GIVE US ANOTHER DOSE OF MOISTURE. THE GFS IVT WOULD
SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE PWATS WITH
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC AND POSSIBLY BAJA. EARLY
SIGNALS IN THE GEFS INDICATE THIS WOULD PUT US NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS THIS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE
NORTHLAND WE WILL HAVE A FEW SYNOPTIC PLAYERS TO HELP GENERATE
SOME PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF KEY
FEATURES REMAIN IN FLUX. THE BIG PICTURE LOOKS TO INCLUDE A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE NORTHERNMOST LOW MAY HAVE A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND PROMOTE SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SEEM STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLAY LEADING TO
SOME FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR LARGE HAIL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEATHER MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL INSTANCES OF IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE AREN'T
ANY STRONG SIGNALS TO REALLY HONE IN ON AT THIS JUNCTURE BUT THE
CHANCES TO PUT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE SOIL WILL BE MOST WELCOME,
ESPECIALLY SINCE PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAW AN EXPANSION OF THE EXTREME
DROUGHT STATUS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING DISSIPATES THROUGH 13-14Z, MAINLY
AFFECTING THE BRD/INL/HIB TERMINALS. ALSO, SOME MVFR TO IFR
STRATUS HAS MOVED IN OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE SOUTH SHORE
AND DLH. EXPECT THIS TO SCATTER OUT TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOLLOWING THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARDS THE
VERY END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 MENTIONS DURING THAT TIME AT BRD AND HYR FOR
NOW, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR TO
OVERCOME FIRST BEFORE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST ARM AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG BECOMES. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS IN PARTS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODIC RAIN AND
CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. NO CLEAR SIGNALS FOR
SEVERE STORMS JUST YET, BUT SUNDAY PM AND MONDAY MAY HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AND RESULT IN A NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.
MIN RH THIS AFTERNOON DIPS TO 30-45%, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, PARTICULARLY THE PINE BARRENS. RH RECOVERS TO ABOVE
90% TONIGHT. PERIODIC SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN, THOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
0.5-1"+ WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SIGNALS ARE STILL A BIT MURKY, WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MONDAY AS THE BEST CHANCES. MIN RH VALUES
IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...ROTHSTEIN
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
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