325
FXUS63 KDLH 250601
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1201 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF CHRISTMAS DAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
- FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT MAY LEAD TO
AN ICY MORNING COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A WINTRY
MIX TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- COLD AIR PLUNGE FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS CHRISTMAS EVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS MOVING ACROSS ACROSS CANADA WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
NW WI AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHERN MN WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT.
CHRISTMAS DAY:
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN QUIET AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. MOISTURE
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY START TO SATURATE THROUGH
THE COLUMN AS WELL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLDING ONTO THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
IS HIGHLIGHTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR
STILL IN PLACE IF WE MANAGE TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH THIS LAYER
THE SURFACE WOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL.
CHRISTMAS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT:
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT IT
WILL HELP TO INDUCE AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. AS
THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING WITH IT WARM AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS SETTING UP THE REGION FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER IN THE ARROWHEAD WHERE COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE LEADING TO SNOW BEING THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH VARIANCE IN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN MODEL RUNS DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS IN THERMAL
PROFILES PAIRED WITH HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. BUT
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS HAS MOST OF THE REGION SEEING AT LEAST A LIGHT
GLAZE TO 0.05" OF ICE BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON THE
LATEST RRFS SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOWING A 6 HOUR WINDOW AS OPPOSED TO THE
PREVIOUS 12 HR WINDOW. AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, THE ARROWHEAD
IS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4" RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AT THE FAR TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.
FRIDAY:
THE LATE CHRISTMAS WEATHER MAKER WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO END BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANY EARLY RISERS LOOKING TO BEAT THE HOLIDAY TRAFFIC MAY
WANT TO SLEEP IN AS THE ROADS MAY STILL BE A BIT SLICK FROM THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE ARE
LOOKING AT QUITE THE INFLUX OF WARM AIR THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE AFTERNOON WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING.
THE WEEKEND:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES UP THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PROMOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MIGRATES NE IN THE AFTERNOON RAIN LOOKS TO
FORM ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RUN INTO THE
TERRAIN RIDGE. OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST
USHERING IN A PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME
DON'T LOOK TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND RESIDENCE TIME IS RATHER LOW
WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE
LARGELY BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. FRIGID AIR WILL POUR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGERING MOISTURE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES.
LOOK FOR WINDCHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO DROP INTO
THE -10S FOR NW WI AND -20S FOR NORTHERN MN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE IS SLOWLY
SPREADING SOUTH AS OF ISSUANCE TIME. IT IS ALREADY AFFECTING
INL, AND SHOULD MOVE INTO HIB SHORTLY, FOLLOWED BY DLH BY 10Z
AND PERHAPS ALSO BRD BY 12Z. THERE ARE SOME HOLES IN THE
OVERCAST, SO SOME SITES MAY SCATTER OUT, BUT THE STRATUS EXTENDS
WELL UP INTO ONTARIO, SO I EXPECT IT TO FILL BACK IN SHORTLY. IN
ADDITION, A LAKE EFFECT PLUME OF IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WHICH ARE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND KHYR WILL SWING
WEST TO PASS OVER KDLH AND ALSO KHIB BY 15Z THURSDAY MORNING. IT
MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOWER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT A DETERIORATION
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KT
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
NORTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
TURN TO OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST
OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO OUT OF
THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO BUILDING WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY MORNING WITH WAVES
SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS WELL.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ140-141.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ142>144-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ145>147.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...BRITT
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