221
FXUS63 KDLH 312318
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
618 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- LOCALIZED FROST POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED.
- WARM TO HOT WEATHER MOVES IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE
HEATRISK AND AROUND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ANOTHER PRETTY QUIET AFTERNOON OUT THERE WITH THE MAIN FEATURE
OF NOTE BEING WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM MANITOBA. ONSHORE FLOW FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS PUSHED MOST OF THE SURFACE SMOKE TO THE WEST
FOR NOW, BUT AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT, SMOKE
SHOULD MAKE A REAPPEARANCE ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MPCA HAS
ISSUED AIR QUALITY ALERTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
(10-30%) FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES COOLED DOWN IN THESE AREAS MORE THAN
MODELS SUGGESTED LAST NIGHT, AND THAT MAY BE THE CASE AGAIN
TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID, THOUGH, WE DO START TO GET SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. IF ANY FROST DOES DEVELOP, IT
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED MAINLY TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS (I.E. THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS). THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING FURTHER EAST WHERE DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE (DEW POINTS IN THE 20S). FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED THERE, AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR BAYFIELD/SAWYER/ASHLAND/IRON/PRICE COUNTIES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FROST IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. RH IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED, THOUGH MIN RH AROUND 25-35 PERCENT
COMBINED WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S MAY KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY
LIGHT. EXPECT SUNSHINE THAT WILL BE FILTERED BY SMOKE THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE (UP TO ~20% CHANCE) FOR A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS OR MAYBE A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LEADING WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A SCORCHER OUT THERE WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH STARTING AROUND MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED, AND
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY EXCEED PREVIOUS
RECORDS FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE STARTING SUNDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF NEAR TO AROUND
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ALSO WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO 60S SUNDAY NIGHT.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS RISE TO ~1.25"-1.75", AND
MEAN WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL TO IT,
PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS ARE
ALSO RATHER TYPICAL OF THOSE THAT PRODUCE FLOODING, WITH A
NEARLY COMPLETELY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
(TO ~1000 J/KG MUCAPE). FORTUNATELY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING STEADILY THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST, ALBEIT
RATHER SLOWLY. THUS, THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING ARE AROUND 5-15%.
WE COULD CERTAINLY END UP WITH SOME OBSERVATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN (MAYBE UP TO ~3" AT THE TOP END), BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE IN THE 0.5" TO 2" RANGE TOTAL. IN MANY CASES, THIS WILL BE
WELCOMED RAIN AT THE END OF A DRY SPELL, BUT NEVERTHELESS, WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EITHER, THOUGH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME ISOLATED
HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH. ALL-IN-ALL, MOST PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO GET BY WITH A
SOAKING RAIN WITH NOT MUCH ELSE FOR IMPACTS, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND MINOR
FLOODING.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WE PRETTY MUCH
SETTLE INTO A SUMMER PATTERN WITH MILD-WARM TEMPERATURES AND
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO END THE
WEEK AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SMOKEY SKIES ALOFT
CONTINUE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXING TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED CUMULUS
FORMING. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 15%).
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
FOR THIS UPDATE, WINDS HAVE BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AROUND THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AT THE HIGHER END OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. EVEN SO, GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY, AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. WAVES MAY INCREASE TO 2
TO LOCALLY 3 FT NEAR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EXPECTED. HERE ARE THE PAST
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR JUNE 2ND.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 2:
KDLH: 88/1948
KBRD: 90/1940
KHIB: 86/1939
KASX: 91/1948
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 2:
KASX: 61/1935
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...JDS
CLIMATE...JDS
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