740
FXUS63 KDLH 041141
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
541 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE
FIRST TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE ARROWHEAD IN THIS TIME SPAN.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS RETURN
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
QUIET WEATHER HOLDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL, THOUGH SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING,
WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL / FLURRIES IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LOCATIONS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. BEYOND THE
LIGHTEST DUSTING, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM ENTERS THE
NORTHLAND FROM MANITOBA. WE EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF MN 210, WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOCUSED IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
ELSEWHERE, A MESSY MIX IS POSSIBLE. A DRYER LAYER ALOFT MOVES IN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION INTO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AS THE CLIPPER DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME NO ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN THE THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST, BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH TODAY.
EXPECT RELATIVELY VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID-30S. THIS WARMTH IS SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS AN EVEN HIGHER BIT OF CONCERN FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS OF
45 MPH FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE WILL NEED TO SEE
ABOUT ANY FUTURE WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IN TIME IF THESE UPPER-
END WIND GUST POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE LIKELY FOR THE FRIDAY
MORNING DAWN AND COMMUTE HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 20S
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NOTABLY WARMING TREND IS LIKELY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY BACK ABOVE FREEZING
BY MONDAY AND MAY LAST INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL BRINGING MVFR VISIBILITY DROPS
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHLAND TOWARDS 14-17Z TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THIS LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE BEFORE TRAILING
IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY SET UP. GUIDANCE REMAINS SKEPTICAL ON
IFR CEILINGS LASTING MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AND IS IN GENERAL
ALIGNMENT WITH THE OBSERVATIONS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
SHOWING A QUICK UPTICK AGAIN BAKC TOWARDS MVFR. FOR THESE
FORECAST TRENDS, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS IN SOME TERMINALS. THE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHWARD
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF DECREASING
CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 03Z TO 09Z THURSDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH WAVES UNDER 1
FOOT. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POTENTIALLY BEING
NEEDED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTH SHORE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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