992  
FXUS63 KDLH 211136  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.  
 
- MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LAST INTO  
TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME OF THE STORMS  
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.  
 
- WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2024  
 
A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER BURNETT COUNTY EARLY THIS  
MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY WILL  
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE RAP FORECASTING MUCAPE FROM  
1500-2500 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHLAND. PWAT VALUES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER  
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BUT REMAIN FROM 1.2-1.4" OVER SOUTHERN  
AREAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TODAY BUT OVERALL FORCING ISN'T VERY STRONG BUT LIKELY WON'T  
NEED TO BE. WE CONFINE POPS TO AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE  
FROM WALKER TO HAYWARD TO PARK FALLS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FORCING, MINIMAL SHEAR, AND MEAGER LAPSE  
RATES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH SLOW  
STORM MOTIONS.  
 
FOG WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING, DENSE IN SPOTS, BUT WILL LIFT  
BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM.  
 
FORCING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHLAND. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM THE  
NORTH AS WELL BACK TO AROUND 1.5". CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS  
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW  
SENDING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS FROM LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THERE  
IS SUPPORTIVE INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR REMAINS LACKING. A STRONG  
STORM OR TWO WILL OCCUR BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE  
MAIN THREAT. THE HREF DEPICTS THE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN  
THREAT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF RAIN FROM FROM 1.5 TO 2" SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING  
WEEK AND BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVES  
INLAND LATE WEEK, HAVING A TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL  
BORDER. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID-WEEK AND LAST  
INTO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID-EIGHTIES FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER  
EIGHTIES SATURDAY.  
 
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SOMETIME THIS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK BUT THEY DO DIFFER ON THE TIMING. THESE FEATURES ALONG  
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO STRONG STORMS AS THE  
FRONT PASSES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2024  
 
FOG, DENSE IN SPOTS, AND STRATUS WERE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE  
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED  
TO LIFT BETWEEN 12-15Z. AREA RADARS SHOWED THE NORTHLAND WAS  
PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT  
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION THIS MORNING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY  
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO  
THIS EVENING. THESE ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KHYR/KBRD AND WE  
KEPT A MENTION OF VCSH THERE. TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE DIVING  
SOUTHEAST MAY LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN  
MINNESOTA BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD ARRIVE LATE OR JUST  
AFTER 22/12Z.  
 

 
   
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2024  
 
MOST WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH  
MONDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MAY BE NEAR  
15 KNOTS AT TIMES IN THE TWIN PORTS. A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS  
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS  
BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL  
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
 
STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS, 10 TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, WILL OCCUR  
TUESDAY.  
 
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA  
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...MELDE  
AVIATION...MELDE  
MARINE...MELDE  
 
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