837
FXUS63 KDLH 230934
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
334 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES
TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR THE REST OF THE ARROWHEAD
- COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY. WIND CHILLS TEN TO TWENTY BELOW
THIS MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD AIR OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT PROCESS CAN STILL BE SEEN FILTERING OVER NW WI. BUT THE REST
OF OUR AREA IS LARGELY CLOUD FREE WHICH HAS LEAD TO SOME RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MORNING LOWS ARE AROUND -5F WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10F. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS NW WI WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS STREAMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE ENGULFED THE
AREA IN STRATUS PROVIDING A WARM BLANKET OF TEMPS IN THE TEENS.
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING IN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AND WE WILL SEE A SHIFT INTO MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS DEPARTS. THE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH SHORE WILL TAPER OFF BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A LAKE EFFECT
BAND FORM IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THIS CONVERGENT BAND AND TRIES TO
BRING IT TO THE NORTH SHORE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLIPPER TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL WE
WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
RAMPING UP OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE OUT BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS TO FLY BUT THE NORTH SHORE MAY
SEE AN EARLIER ONSET TIME THEN THE REST OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE
ADDED BOOST OF TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WHEN THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE DIVERGENT SECTOR OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD COUPLED WITH AMPLE PVA. THIS WILL BE WHEN WE SEE
OUR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH RATES BETWEEN 0.5" TO
1" PER HOUR. THERMAL PROFILES HIGHLIGHT FAVORABLE OMEGA WITHIN THE
DGZ BUT DOES HAVE A LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED WATER THAT THE DENDRITES
WILL HAVE TO FALL THROUGH BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THIS PROFILE IS NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS OUR LAST WINTER
STORM WHICH PRODUCED THE WET AND HEAVY SNOW, THIS WILL BE MORE OF
THE USUAL SNOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TOTALS HAVE TICKED UP JUST A
SMIDGE AND WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR INLAND
COOK/LAKE AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ST. LOUIS
MAY NEED TO BE PUT INTO AN ADVISORY AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW THE
FORECAST TRENDS, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ADD THEM.
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE WITH THE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL EXITING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOOKS TO PACK SOME DECENT ADVECTION WITH
IT AS IT PLOWS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY WINDS WILL FILTER IN AND
OUR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME QUITE STEEP WITH THE PASSAGE. IF WE
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE LOITERING ABOUT WE COULD GET SOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE BEFORE ALL ACTIVITY
WANES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE LION'S SHARE OF
THE SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND THE NORTH SHORE WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD SOUTHWEST.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLAY ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BUT WILL
MARK THE START OF OUR WARMING TREND TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE
40S FOR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE AS MODELS
WAFFLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED.
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
STAYING TO OUR SOUTH OR JUST BARELY BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED OFF TO
THE EAST WITH INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COULD GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE POPS LESS THEN 15% ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH THE GEFS AND THE EPS OF
TAKING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MANITOBA AND THROUGH ONTARIO.
THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN FOR FRIDAY. THE
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORS KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR NORTHERN MN. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST A COLD FRONT WILL
RUSH DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES TO START THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ARE STILL PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS
WHICH WILL IMPACT HYR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOMORROW TO OUT OF
THE SOUTH WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LAKE EFFECT BAND DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS BAND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE OVER DLH
PROVIDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
IF FAIRLY SPLIT ON THIS OUTCOME AND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS THE VFR SOLUTION. ADDITIONALLY, CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SET TO BRING SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
MARINE HEADLINES DROPPING OFF. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A CONVERGENT BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY GLIDING UP THE NORTH SHORE THIS
EVENING. ON TUESDAY, A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH THAT WILL VEER TO OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
GALES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH 40-60% CHANCE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR MNZ012-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ021.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ148-150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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