416
FXUS63 KDLH 240716
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
216 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ARE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED AS EARLY AS SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO AROUND PING PONG
BALL SIZE IS THE MAIN THREAT, BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- RAINFALL AND STORMS WILL BE HERE AND THERE IN THE NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT REALLY A GOOD SOAKING IN SIGHT UNLESS YOU GET LUCKY
WITH A THUNDERSTORM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THIS MORNING, THERE IS A BROAD SHIELD OF STRATUS ROUGHLY ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH. THIS WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SO, WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AROUND THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE A
CAVEAT FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.
THE STRATUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY REMAIN A BIT EAST OF WHERE THE
INITIAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA, SO NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST THERE. THESE CLOUDS COULD MEAN THAT WE END UP WITH
A BIT LESS INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHLAND, WHICH COULD LESSEN
THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING. AT THE VERY
LEAST, THE STRATUS LAYER TILTS THE ODDS IN FAVOR OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BEING LARGELY ELEVATED BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT
INTO THE NORTHLAND, OR AT LEAST ONCE THEY MOVE EAST INTO, SAY,
ST. LOUIS/CARLTON/PINE COUNTIES AND POINTS EAST. WITH THAT SAID,
THE RISK FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT
IF THE CAP CAN BE ERODED, AND THIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IF THIS HAPPENS, LOWER-ATMOSPHERIC
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR THAT WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORM MODE AND INTRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO AS POSSIBILITIES IN
ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY HAIL HAZARD THAT STORMS WILL HAVE
WHETHER THEY ARE SURFACE-BASED OR ELEVATED.
OVERALL MUCAPE POTENTIAL IS LOOKING SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE, WITH
1-2 KJ/KG AT A MINIMUM, BUT IT COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THAT. WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL
SIZE, BUT HONESTLY, GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER COULDN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH A STORM OR TWO, MAINLY IN FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE THERE'S THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-
BASED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, SO
THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD RETAIN SOME
INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE
EAST, BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING THE FIRST
OF THE HOT WEATHER INTO THE REGION. IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD
BE CAPPED DESPITE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY. ON SUNDAY, SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ALOFT WITH SOME PASSING
SHORT WAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO BUST THE CAP. IN THAT CASE,
PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
BEYOND THAT, NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND,
GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS OUR SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A STRAY SHOWER OR
ISOLATED STORM MIGHT POP UP NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COMFORTABLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION, WE ARE MONITORING A SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP
TO PING PONG BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS PARTICULAR
IMPULSE IS LEFTOVER CONVECTION THAT SHOULD BE DYING OR ON THE
DOWNHILL AS IT MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. SOME
STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO POSE A THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THEY
STAY IN A LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS DRY OUT, BUT THE HEAT
QUICKLY BUILDS BACK IN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE REGION. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING UP IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH COULD PUSH HEAT TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 100S. IN ADDITION TO THE
SWELTERING CONDITIONS, ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT EXISTS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RANGE IN GUIDANCE FOR MAX T'S LIKELY EXISTS AS THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WOULD LIKELY STEAL THE ENERGY FOR STORMS RATHER THAN
HEAT. THAT IS PROBABLY THE LIKELY SCENARIO, SO NOT HITTING THE
HEAT HEADLINES TOO HARD. THERE IS A SMALL CAP WHICH ALSO
SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY WIN OUT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THE HIGHER REZ CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PAN OUT FOR THIS.
THE UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MONDAY REMAINING QUITE HOT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A FEW LINGERING, ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
MAY MODERATE SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE 80S, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, RAINFALL WILL BE HERE AND THERE,
BUT NOT REALLY A GOOD SOAKING ONE IS IN SIGHT ASIDE FROM IF YOU
GET LUCKY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.
THE 6-10 DAY CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION FAVORS A STRONG PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA LEANS TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
PROBABILITIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT BY AROUND 18Z, PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH
THE PERIOD, SOME MVFR STRATUS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT SOME TERMINALS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT HIB/BRD AND POSSIBLY DLH. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AT INL/HIB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SOME OF THE AFTERNOON STRATUS MAY HAVE
AN IMPACT ON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP, BUT WENT WITH THE
BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING THAT'S AVAILABLE NOW. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
DAMAGING WINDS TO 50-60 KT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
(5-15% CHANCE).
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH TODAY AND
LINGER INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. I DID NUDGE WINDS
TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE TO MIX DOWN. AS SUCH, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED EVERYWHERE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
AND GRADUALLY ENDING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LAST HEADLINE TO END WILL BE NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND
PORTAGE, WHERE THE GUSTY WINDS MAY LAST THE LONGEST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN GENERAL, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL.
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON SATURDAY, BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME 20-30 MPH
GUSTS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO THE
ARROWHEAD. WE WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY, SO MIN RH
AROUND 45-60% IS EXPECTED. THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO A BIT
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE HIGHER RH AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD KEEP THAT RISK PRETTY MINIMAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY STARTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY VARY QUITE A BIT. GENERAL TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.5" FROM
THE IRON RANGE AND NORTH AND A TENTH OR TWO FURTHER SOUTH ARE
MOST LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH OR SO
ARE DEFINITELY TO BE EXPECTED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
PERSISTENT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
HOT WEATHER MOVES IN SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE A BIT,
BUT RH MAY FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR PERCENT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. SATURDAY MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
LOWER ~35% RH. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
NEXT WEEK, A GENERAL WARM TO HOT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED.
ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE HIGH EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED AREAS THAT MAY SEE A STORM OR
TWO.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.
UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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