777
FXUS63 KDLH 112340
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS NW WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERAL OTHER LINES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM
OVER MN AND PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME FUNNELS
MAY BE EMBEDDED WITH THESE LINES BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS ENGULFED MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS IA AND
NORTHEAST TOWARDS WI. FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WE HAVE A COLD FRONT
MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ENTERING THE LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE AIDED BY A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SENDING A LOBE OF PVA OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WE WILL SEE SOME PWATS OF OVER AN INCH SEEPING INTO NW
WI. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLAY COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
OVERHEAD WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR
ALOFT WITH THE JET OVERHEAD BUT FAIRLY LIMITED ON INSTABILITY
KEEPING SEVERE WEATHER AT BAY. FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. ALONG THE FRONT WE ARE SEEING SOME
FAVORABLE SURFACE VORTICITY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FUNNELS DEVELOPING. THE MOST FAVORABLE
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO CRUISE THROUGH THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 8PM. OVERALL, EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY:
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DECAYING AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING HOURS AS WEAK IMPULSES WEAVE THROUGH A MERIDIONAL SET UP.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A WARM
FRONT BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S WITH MID 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS
WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTH IN THE WARMER AIR. A
SMALL LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
DURING THIS TIME CONTRIBUTING TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO NW WI UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
JET SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS.
WEEKEND-MONDAY:
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CHURNING ITS WAY THROUGH
ONTARIO KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE WEEKEND HIGHS LARGELY IN
THE 60S. DIURNAL HEATING PAIRED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
TIMES.
TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK:
CLUSTER ANALYSIS KEEPS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT EVER SO SLIGHTLY SHIFTING
EAST EACH DAY. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST TO WEAKEN A BIT AND ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTRUSIONS
ALOFT. NOT A GREAT DEAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON THESE INTRUSIONS WITH THE EURO BRINGING THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN ON TUESDAY REINTRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW, THE NBM IS CARRYING A
20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN MAY REMAIN
ACTIVE INTO THE LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DEEPER TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR STORMS DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT ONCE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MOST TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY INL, WILL SEE MORE SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER
SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY BRINGING US THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. NO LOWERING OF
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND LIGHT SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY EARLY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS. A FEW GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT BUT COVERAGE AND TIMING SEEM RATHER LIMITED IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT SO WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WESTERLY WIND INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY NEEDED ACROSS ALL THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP TO GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ON SATURDAY.
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF IN THE
EVENING. SUNDAY, FLOW CHANGES TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH STRATIFORM RAIN OVER NW WI AND
LINES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. TOMORROW WILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN THE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT TO ACROSS OUR SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. TOMORROW WILL ALSO SEE AND
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED. NO
IMMEDIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE DAY TO KEEP AND EYE ON FOR OUR NEXT
POTENTIALLY DRY AND WINDY DAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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