584
FXUS63 KDLH 141746
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH TEMPS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
- AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BRINGING A WINTRY MIX AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
WET SNOWFALL.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE WINDS ARE COMPARATIVELY LIGHTER THAN
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH. AS DIURNAL COOLING CONTINUES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY, WITH THE MODE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SOLIDLY AROUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. IN THE FORECAST
UPDATE THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESPITE THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE WARM IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WIDESPREAD FOG IS LIKELY (70% CHANCE). THE
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE STORM TRACK OF CLIPPERS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH BEING
EJECTED FROM THIS DEEP TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 00Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
TWO GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, WITH MSLP CENTERS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO BE SETTING UP OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS AT THIS TIME IS HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA, WHICH WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN VERSUS SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND MIDWEEK, SMALL
SPATIAL DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIP TYPE.
AT THIS TIME, THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWA
DURING THE DURATION OF THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
SNOW.
WHILE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THIS WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD SECTOR
ENGULFS THE AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM HAS A WIDESPREAD 40%
CHANCE OR HIGHER FOR AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW. THERE IS ALSO A 40% CHANCE
OR HIGHER FOR 8" OF SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS EASTERLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE TO HOLD, A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THIS WILL EJECT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS KEEPS AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL AS MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RETURN. WHILE THE NEAR TERM WILL FEEL MORE SPRINGLIKE,
THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE A REMINDER THAT WINTER ISN'T QUITE OVER
YET!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED. THERE IS STILL SOME REMNANT FOG WEST
OF INL, BUT IT IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT INL THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING
(40-70% CHANCE) WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/INL GIVEN SLIGHTLY MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WIDESPREAD DENSER FOG CAN GET TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR VISIBILITY AND LIFR CEILINGS IN THE
FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS, AND SOME LIFR VISIBILITY AT INL, BUT
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. PRIMARILY LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM TO LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS TUESDAY PM INTO WEDNESDAY AM AS A STRONG WINTER STORM
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PENDING THIS FORECAST TRACK
CONTINUING, A GALE WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS FOR MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A LOW 15% CHANCE FOR
STORM FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...UNRUH
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