793
FXUS63 KDLH 212040
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
240 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY INTO SUNDAY FOR AREAS
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR IRON COUNTY, WI DUE TO
MODERATE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW RATES FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN
IRON COUNTY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING, COLDEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A SERIES OF TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
EARLY TO MID-WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES TO MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND, ESPECIALLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR MISS US ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
TODAY - SUNDAY FLURRIES:
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER LOW AND MID-LEVEL AIR HAS HUNG AROUND.
THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN LOW STRATUS WITH FLURRIES BEING OBSERVED
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT LOWER
STRATUS AND OFF-AND-ON FLURRIES TO RETURN.
A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CREATE HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SPORADIC FLURRIES TO
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THOSE CLOUDS. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL, GENERALLY A DUSTING AS THE CHANCE FOR GREATER
THAN 0.1" OF SNOW SITS AT 20%.
SOUTH SHORE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE EXPECTATION FOR MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
IRON COUNTY SNOW BELTS DUE TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW GIVEN COLD 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF -15C TO -20C AND A FAVORABLE FETCH OF
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS A MOSTLY OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN ICE CONCENTRATIONS AS A RESULT OF THE
RECENT BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM. LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING, BUT SHOULD PICK UP TO A MORE MODERATE
INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
EASING IN INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 300-500 J/KG WITH SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) FROM 700-900 MB THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, PRODUCING A FLUFFIER SNOW CONSISTENCY. WHILE WE LOSE
SOME OF THIS DGZ SATURATION DEPTH ON SUNDAY DUE TO SOME COOLING
ABOVE 875 MB, STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT AND AID IN A
MORE SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE SUNDAY SNOWFALL. 12Z HREF
PROBABILITIES ALSO SUGGEST PROLONGED SNOWFALL RATES AROUND
1/4-1/3 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY OF AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS. ALL
TOLD, THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SNOWFALL RATES DROP OFF. TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-7" ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN IRON COUNTY
IN THE PENOKEE RANGE, WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF IRON COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY:
A COOLER AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH THE COLDEST PORTION BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT AND SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST AREAS
WILL BE THE ARROWHEAD AND BORDERLANDS, WHERE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING WIND CHILLS COULD DIP INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO DUE TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
EARLY TO MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS:
OUR NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVES
WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH OUT OF THE ORDINARY
FOR LATE FEBRUARY (PWATS AROUND 0.2-0.35"). GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT STILL SHOW A NON-TRIVIAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS (AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER). RIGHT NOW THE MAJORITY OF THESE TRACKS
WOULD TAKE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND, FAVORING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AND RATES THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND SOUTH SHORE. LATEST NBM SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES
WITH A 50%+ CHANCE FOR 2" OR MORE OF SNOW ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF
US HWY 2 IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EAST OF US HWY 53 IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE, 4"+ PROBABILITIES OF 40-55% ARE
MAINLY FOR THE NORTH SHORE ALONG AND NORTH OF SILVER BAY, WITH
A 15-30% CHANCE FOR 4"+ IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IS FAVORED IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES TO ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY WHERE PROBABILITIES OF 1+" ARE
ONLY 25-45%.
SNOW WITH THIS FIRST CLIPPER ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN, ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, INTO IOWA/MISSOURI VICINITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
WHILE ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD/LOWER
CONFIDENCE, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. WE ARE
ONLY CARRYING 20-30% PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY--HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA--AS THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD POTENTIAL THAT THE NORTHLAND
COULD COMPLETELY MISS OUT ON THE SNOWBAND ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM IF THE SOUTHWARD TREND IN SURFACE LOW
TRACKS HOLDS.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND:
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, THE NORTHLAND
STAYS IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY
AND EVEN INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS LATE-WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD BE A
RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE AS
SOME DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF MVFR
STRATUS ALONG WITH SPORADIC FLURRY POTENTIAL. FLURRY POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME BKN MVFR
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
FLURRIES. WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING
GUSTY AT TIMES WITH WIND STRENGTH GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY VEER TO NORTHERLY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL ALSO
BE BUILDING UP TO 3-6 FEET IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND PARTS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE IN ICE-FREE AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, ELEVATED WAVES, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY EVENING COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
SEEMS LIMITED AND THE POTENTIAL FAIRLY BRIEF, SO DECIDED AGAINST
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ON MONDAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST MONDAY
FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ141>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST MONDAY
FOR LSZ148-150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page