259
FXUS63 KDLH 230546
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES LINGERS FOR TONIGHT BEFORE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY.
- AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK
INTO THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. COOL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXPANSIVE LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS WAS LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ALONG
WITH AN ENHANCED BAND OF SHOWERS DUE TO A GRAVITY WAVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES AND ANOTHER ACROSS
IRON COUNTY. SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WERE
REPORTED AS WELL, PRIMARILY IN THE IFALLS AREA. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF SNOW MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SHOWERS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST, LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS IRON COUNTY IN
THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ARRIVES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 40S.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES TO
OUR EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S WEST TO
40S EAST. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING EVEN
MORE WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN THE 50S WITH SOME 60S EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH STALL OUT IN/NEAR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN CATEGORIES AT INL, HIB,
DLH, AND HYR. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A BAND FROM
NORTHEAST OF HIB TO DLH COULD BRING A PASSING SHOWER TO HIB AND
DLH OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM
TO NEAR HYR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY, AWAY FROM FORECAST TERMINALS, AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND CIGS CLEAR, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 4-8KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 10KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY
EVENING TO CALM, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 12 MPH.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...BJH
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