539
FXUS63 KDLH 252335
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE
REGION THE PAST TWO DAYS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW MAY LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS IRON AND PRICE COUNTIES WHILE A POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL START TO ADVECT WARMER AND MORE MOIST AREA NORTHWARD
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE HIGH.
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FRONT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG WITH 60S ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS, BRINGING A START TO A MUGGY PERIOD.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. OUR FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH END OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO A WARM BIAS IN SOME OF THE MODELS, SO HIGHS MAY
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HOWEVER, WITH READINGS STILL IN THE
80S AND LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND POTENTIALLY 70S,
HOT AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED. IN REGARDS TO STORMS MONDAY, THEY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD THAT CAP BREAK, ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE SPC HAS INTRODUCED A 15% RISK
AREA ACROSS MOST OF THE DULUTH CWA FOR THIS PERIOD. THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH PWATS REACHING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE JUNE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT DLH, HIB, AND HYR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR, THOUGH
HYR CURRENTLY HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
HOWEVER, HAVE STILL ADDED 6SM FOR DLH AND HIB FOR IF/WHEN FOG
FORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT, AND WILL INCREASE TO
5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TOMORROW, WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS, STRONGEST AT THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND GET
STRONGER EACH DAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MAY LEAD TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS
ALONG THE PERIPHERY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% FOR
AFTERNOON RH VALUES, BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE INTO THE
ARROWHEAD MAY FALL INTO THE 30-40% RANGE WITH MOISTURE TAKING
LONGER TO REACH THOSE AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 35% ON
SATURDAY AND ABOVE 50% ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS
20-25 MPH THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED HEADING IN TO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH
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