138  
FXUS63 KDLH 062323  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
623 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
   
DISCUSSION  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
 
SUMMARY: DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE ON  
AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA THIS AFTERNOON  
ARE QUICKLY DWINDLING AS SKIES CLEAR OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED  
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND THE RISK FOR RIP TIDES ON THE BEACHES AT THE  
HEAD OF THE LAKE.  
 
SMOKEY/HAZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST  
OF THE AREA, BUT STILL LINGERS ALOFT. HAZE ALOFT COULD CONTINUE TO  
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE DRY AIR AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SMOKE WITH IT.  
THIS COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN  
FORECASTED.  
 
HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE  
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THOUGH  
WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT, LITTLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE  
GROUND EVEN IF THESE SHOWERS MANAGE TO FORM. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS  
LOW CHANCE, SLIGHT CHANCES TO SPRINKLES WERE ADDED TONIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT, WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25%  
IN BOTH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  
 
ON FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME  
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. PRECIPITATION  
TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH  
THIS SYSTEM. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, THE  
TRACK OF THE LOW IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS,  
AND COULD STILL MISS OUR AREA COMPLETELY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
 
HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE DISSIPATED AT THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA  
AS AN INFLUX OF A DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS CLEARED OUT  
MOST OF THE SURFACE HAZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST  
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHTER OUT OF THE  
EAST-NORTHEAST FOR DLH AND HYR, AND SOUTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFF OF LAKE  
SUPERIOR ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR DLH.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
 
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES UP TO 4 FT WILL CAUSE  
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SECOND SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. AFTER WEDNESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20  
KTS UNTIL A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DLH 48 67 44 71 / 10 10 0 0  
INL 52 75 52 77 / 20 20 10 10  
BRD 53 77 51 78 / 10 10 0 0  
HYR 51 79 44 79 / 10 0 0 0  
ASX 42 66 38 72 / 10 0 0 0  
 
 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.  
 
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.  
 
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...KOSSEN  
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN  
MARINE...KOSSEN  
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