011  
FXUS63 KDLH 251110  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
610 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018  
 
MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. A LONGWAVE  
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND BECOME MORE  
BROAD INTO WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST  
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE  
NORTHLAND AIDING IN LARGE SCALE LIFT. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER  
MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE  
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND RANGE FROM AROUND  
50 TO THE UPPER FIFTIES.  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF AND  
THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A  
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT  
WHICH WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE  
THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS. WE KEPT THE SHOWERS TONIGHT ALL RAIN IN FAR  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WE EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO  
REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH. HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES A FEW  
WET FLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES.  
 
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AND  
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE  
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE FIFTIES AS ONLY MODEST  
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018  
 
SEPTEMBER ENDS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND A FEW  
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT  
FOR ALMOST ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INLAND NORTHWEST  
WISCONSIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE  
SUPERIOR SHORELINE.  
 
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL  
BE OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON A CLIPPER-LIKE  
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL  
DEEPEN OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO IN RESPONSE, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL PVA WILL PROVIDE STRONG  
BROAD-SCALE LIFT, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PLENTIFUL LOW/MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A FEW RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THE  
SURFACE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN ITS  
WAKE INTO FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
ON FRIDAY NIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT  
AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON  
SATURDAY MORNING, MARKING WHAT MAY BE THE FIRST FREEZE FOR MANY  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. (SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE  
IRON RANGE ALREADY REACHED THE FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS FALL  
(INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND HIBBING), BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH  
INCLUDING DULUTH, BRAINERD, AND HAYWARD HAVE NOT YET REACHED 32  
DEGREES.  
 
SATURDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S, BUT PROBABLY THE BEST  
WEATHER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD TO GET OUTSIDE WITH AT LEAST PARTLY  
SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES  
FROM THE SOUTH, THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH  
THE FRONT, SO IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF SUNDAY ENDS UP BEING RAIN-FREE.  
RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A  
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO REACH FARTHER NORTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018  
 
MVFR CEILINGS STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AT MOST SITES, THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS EVENING  
AS CEILINGS LIFT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, DECREASING  
TO WEST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 52 39 55 45 / 70 40 0 50  
INL 51 36 55 42 / 20 20 20 60  
BRD 53 39 58 46 / 60 10 0 40  
HYR 54 39 56 46 / 70 50 10 40  
ASX 55 43 57 46 / 80 70 10 50  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MELDE  
LONG TERM...JJM  
AVIATION...JJM  
 
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