548
FXUS63 KDLH 281123
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO BE LOW THOUGH WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE NOTABLY LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY.
- AN ACTIVE AND DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN, ACCUMULATING
SNOW, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/THIS MORNING:
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM
THE WEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE RAMPING UP WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE RAP SHOWS SOME
SATURATION AT 290K MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, THIS
SNOWFALL WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING TO THE SURFACE AS IT
HAS 9000 FT OF DRY AIR TO FILTER THROUGH, AND GIVEN THE PACE OF
THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WE HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 20%.
AFTERNOON:
THIS AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO LAKE OF THE
WOODS BRINGING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE
INVERSION BREAKS THIS MORNING WE WILL SEE SOME AREAS IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION GUSTING TO 35 MPH. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE EVENING WHEN ANOTHER
INVERSION DENIES FURTHER MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THE FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL PROMOTE RAPID DRYING WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIR
UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CROSSING THIS MORNING WILL DEPART. IF CLOUDS
LINGER WE MAY NOT ACHIEVE THE MIN RHS THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE
FORECASTED. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIN RHS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THERE WAS
SOME CONSIDERATION FOR ADDLING NORTHERN ITASCA INTO THE RED FLAG
WARNING BUT, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY
BEFORE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS OCCUR.
SUNDAY:
MUCH QUIETER SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO.
WINDS WON'T BE AS BREEZY AS SATURDAY SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
LOWER BUT NOT COMPLETELY ZERO. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY AND HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTH. IT WILL
BE A CLASSIC COOLER BY THE LAKE DAY WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AS YOU APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR.
NEXT WEEK:
A FEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL PROMOTE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ACTIVITY
COULD RAMP UP AS SOON AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SPANNING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIPS INTO NORTHERN MN.
BETTER CHANCES MAY ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERS ARE
SHOWING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THE TRACK THROUGH
EITHER IA OR SOUTHERN MN. STILL A BIT OF A LARGE SPREAD TO BE
ABLE TO NARROW DOWN SPECIFICS, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING WE
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME COOL AIR TO THE NORTH. OVERALL,
ITS LOOKING LIKE A TYPICAL SPRING TIME PATTERN WHERE ALL TYPES
OF PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE TABLE AND DEPENDING ON THE LOW TRACK
WE COULD GET SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WI.
THIS FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART LATE TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOL AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO PROMOTE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR MID WEEK BUT THE
QUIET CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BRIEF. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL ONCE AGAIN PROMPT MORE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING BUT WE WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE BRINGS A QUICK MOVING
WAVE OF SNOW LATER THIS MORNING, BUT NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE ABLE
TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH ALL THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE. AFTER
THIS WAVE EXITS EXPECT A VERY WINDY DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THE
SUNSETS WE WILL SEE WINDS START TO SUBSIDE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND NOON TODAY WITH A GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS
BUT WINDS QUICKLY START TO DIMINISH BY 3 PM. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
OF THESE WINDS WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
THE MOMENT. IF WIND TRENDS START INCREASE THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AND
THE SOUTH SHORE WOULD LIKELY BE THE LOCATION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY TURN TO OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT HAZARDOUS PERIOD ACROSS THE LAKE WILL
BE MONDAY WHEN THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF 25
KTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ025-026-033>038.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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