499
FXUS63 KDLH 210815
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
ARE OR WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
- NOT AS COOL ELSEWHERE WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE TO START THE NEW WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY DIPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES, AND A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THESE AREAS. THE FROST
ADVISORY IS ALSO STILL IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND UP INTO THE IRON RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME LINGERING CUMULUS
WAS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE OVER THE REGION, BUT AN OVERALL
DIMINISHING TREND WAS SEEN AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH LOWS IN THESE AREAS
RANGING FROM 33 TO 38, AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHLAND TOMORROW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EXPECTED. WITH
EASTERLY WINDS, A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS, KEEPING HIGHS THERE IN
THE 50S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35% RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON RHS, BUT WITH THE BREEZY WINDS, BETTER MIXING
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO RHS TRENDING LOWER, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR
WITH WIDESPREAD 60S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND A LAKE BREEZE
KEEPING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS
IN THE 50S. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH, BUT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM,
WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CHECK.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
AS THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES THEN TURN
SHARPLY WARMER STARTING SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
IN. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH 70S AND
80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SO THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT OVERALL CHANCES WILL BE
LOW AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO MID-
WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS UP TO 15
KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FOR THIS EARLY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH, KEEPING VARIABLE WINDS AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WAVES TO
2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
WINDS ARE LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT
10 TO 20 MPH TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 25
TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSING AN ABRUPT
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST. THESE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY. WINDS BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR GUSTS. RH WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM
25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS COULD
SEE RH RISE IN THE EARLY EVENING AS A RAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-020-021.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-037.
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-004.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-002-008-
009.
MARINE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ142.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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