123
FXUS63 KDLH 172334
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
534 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CHARGE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA. THE CLOUDS THAT WERE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT 20Z/2PM, WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE/DEPART THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AS WELL,
SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS, AS DOES A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAN EARLIER FORECASTED. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE WIND
SPEEDS, INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER, AND BUMP UP THE TEMPS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WIND CHILL HEADLINES LEFT UNCHANGED, EVEN WITH
AFOREMENTIONED MODIFICATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE BITTER COLD
AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND -25 ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE -25 TO -40 F RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY COLD DELTA-TS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF
BAYFIELD, ASHLAND, AND IRON COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS
IN THAT TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIND SHEAR CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE 925 MB
TO 850 MB LAYER, WHICH MAY DISRUPT ORGANIZED LES PROCESSES. WINDS
ALOFT BACK NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY, SHIFTING THE LES
ORIENTATION TO A MORE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
CONFIGURATION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AS
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING TO RANGE FROM AROUND -27 NORTH TO -5 ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -40
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY
WITH LIKELY SNOW FOR THE NORTHLAND. A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHLAND,
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA, LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY LINGER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS FROM AROUND -10 TO NEAR ZERO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROVIDING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN SOME AREAS MAY DEVELOP CEILINGS FROM
ROUGHLY 500-1000FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME
SATURATION AT THOSE LEVELS DEVELOPING BUT THE ABSENCE OF LARGER
SCALE LIFT WILL KEEP US FROM ADDING A CEILINGS ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH -10 3 -15 0 / 0 0 0 0
INL -21 -6 -27 -7 / 0 0 0 0
BRD -9 5 -16 2 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -2 10 -4 9 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 1 9 0 8 / 10 20 20 20
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-035-037.
LS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MELDE
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