030
FXUS63 KDLH 092008
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT COULD BRING A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
INCHES, HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE
TWIN PORTS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING
SOME MORE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, TWIN PORTS, NORTH
SHORE, AND EAST ACROSS NW WI. SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
AND SYSTEM TRACK, BUT ANOTHER 1-4"+ IS POSSIBLE, AND SOME WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY COULD BRING A QUICK
PUNCH OF SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SLOWING TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH A FREEZE/THAW CYCLE EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AND
THEN MOSTLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A MOMENT OF CALM WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF SUNSHINE AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WE BRIEFLY SIT IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WE'LL FIND OURSELVES IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SEE DISTURBANCES RUN ALONG IT AND
PRODUCE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION, BENEFITING FROM A ROBUST POOL OF
GULF MOISTURE THAT CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TONIGHT: A BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS ND SHOULD SWEEP
EASTWARD, ENTERING THE NORTHLAND IN THE BRAINERD LAKES THIS EVENING
AND THEN DROPPING A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW FROM THERE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. A BAND OF 1-3" IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA, HIGHEST ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM DULUTH TO TWO HARBORS AS WINDS BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND GIVE THAT AREA A LITTLE EXTRA
BOOST. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ROUND OF SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ONGOING ON/OFF SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. A SECOND BAND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI TUESDAY EVENING,
FORCED BY A WEAK BUT BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LATEST TRENDS FROM MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOME
OF THIS SNOW BACK INTO OUR AREA, WITH AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
SEVERAL INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY IN PARTS OF NW WI - ASHLAND, IRON,
AND PRICE COUNTY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF 2-4"+ AND MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE COULD
LEAD TO A SECONDARY BAND OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTH SHORE
AND TWIN PORTS (1-3"). THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACK, TEMPERATURES, AND MESOSCALE FEATURES SO HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY- FRIDAY: FOLLOWING TROUGHING BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM,
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A POWERFUL CLIPPER SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE AR FLOW HITTING THE PACNW AND BARREL
INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES
ON THE TIMING OF HOW THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND EXACTLY WHERE IT
TRACKS AS IT DOES SO. SHOULD VARIABLES ALIGN THAT ITS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION OVER US, A QUICK HIT OF A WIDESPREAD 2-5"+ IS
CERTAINLY IN THE CARDS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH SHORE. THIS TIME PERIOD IS ANOTHER TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND MAYBE A WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE, SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
WEEKEND: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COLORADO LOW SYSTEM TO
BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEYOND BEING ABLE TO STATE THAT, THERE ISN'T MUCH FURTHER
AGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS SYSTEM WOULD TRACK. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE IS TO OUR SOUTH, WITH MINIMAL MIXED PRECIPITATION CONCERNS
FOR OUR AREA. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT THE NORTHLAND SEES LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
HOWEVER, IF IT DOES TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT MN/WI WERE IN THE
OCCLUDED QUADRANT, THE INGREDIENTS FOR A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WITH
HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD IN PLACE.
OUTSIDE OF ALL THESE SYSTEMS, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TREND
DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK. TONIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO BELOW 32F WHICH MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS TOMORROW
MORNING AS MELT FREEZES. A DIURNAL FREEZE/THAW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AND THEN MUCH OF THE AREA MAY FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SPRING LOVERS SHOULDN'T DESPAIR HOWEVER, LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENTIAL THAW TO RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS IS STARTING TO SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR BROKEN CEILINGS AT DLH/HIB FOR THE
NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LIGHTEN UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT DLH/BRD/HYR AND JUST GRAZING HIB. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE INITIAL BAND PASSES THROUGH. THE INITIAL BAND
SHOULD LAST AROUND 3 TO 4 HOURS AT EACH TERMINAL, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY LESS AT HIB. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CALM AND TURN TO COME FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO
TUESDAY. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AND
APOSTLE ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS
REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD TAPER IN STRENGTH.
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A ROUND OF STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ143>148-150.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...LEVENS
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