177
FXUS63 KDLH 092332
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING UP TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOT WEATHER WITH NEAR-
RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S TO MID-80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND NEAR-RECORD WARM LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 25-35 MPH, DRY AIR, AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS OF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HAS LED TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-25
MPH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND, THOUGH
CLOUDIER IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
60S TO AROUND 70F ASIDE FROM 50S FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
EVEN LOW 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
HIGHEST IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF A BIT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS TO
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
THIS WEEKEND:
ON SATURDAY, AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAVE
THE NORTHLAND NESTLED IN BETWEEN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT
THE SAME TIME, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL LEAVE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF IT EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO THE NORTHLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT, REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO MID-80S, WARMEST IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES THERE, BUT LEAD
TO ONSHORE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, AS WELL AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING TO THE 30S (%) IN THE WARMEST
AREAS AND UPPER 30S TO 40S (%) ELSEWHERE. THESE MIN RH FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH THE
VERY WARM AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE WHERE WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL BE STRONGER. WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING
BUT GRADUALLY STARTING TO WEAKEN FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS NEAR DAILY RECORD WARM VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, EXCEPT MID-50S IN FAR NORTH- CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY
BREAK RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT (SEE THE "CLIMATE"
SECTION BELOW).
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F INTO THE MID-80S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND AS FAR WEST AS EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE TWIN PORTS.
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO THE SOUTH SHORE
COULD ALSO PUSH ASHLAND'S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE INTO THE
MID-80S, WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE RECORD DAILY HIGH FOR
SUNDAY. MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
70S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WARM TEMPERATURES, FAIRLY LOW MINIMUM RH,
AND SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, THOUGH POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY.
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT/TROUGHING REMAINS WEAK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN FORECASTS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN MOVING
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE SUNDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT, WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH MISS OUT ON THE INITIAL
ROUND OF RAIN. AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN LIKELY SEE LESS THAN
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED, LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES TO MORE OF THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES INTO FAR INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO 0.1-0.25"
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HWY 2 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL EXITS TO THE
EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MORE SEASONAL OCTOBER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
50S IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH
AND LOW TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ONCE RAIN CHANCES END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLIGHTLY
SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AS IT EJECTS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME IN THE
THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. AT THE SURFACE, EXPECT
LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE COLORADO
VICINITY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THAT WILL THEN EJECT NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY. LARGE SPREAD IN THE IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES REMAINS
FOR THE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. STRONGER SYNOPTIC
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL POTENTIAL, WHICH IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM
HANGS AROUND INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY, COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY SNOW IS LOW
(10-20%).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN EASING EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN
NORTHERN MN OCCURRING AROUND THE FRONT. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
INCLUDING WIDESPREAD LLWS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA, CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST
TO DECREASE WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING TOMORROW.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
15-25 KT GUSTS INITIALLY DEVELOPING IN THE SW ARM OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE, THEN SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH SHORE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVES OF 1-5 FEET ARE FORECAST WITH THESE WINDS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH VERY EARLY SATURDAY, HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
GALES STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THERE (30-40% CHANCE), BUT VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER A RELATIVELY COOLER LAKE SURFACE SHOULD
LIMIT EVEN STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN, EXCEPT POSSIBLY PARTS OF
THE NORTH SHORE NEAR TACONITE HARBOR AND GRAND MARAIS. BREEZY
WINDS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. WINDS THEN
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, WITH 35 TO 45% IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AT THE TWIN PORTS. WIND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH CONTINUE INTO EARLY/MID EVENING BEFORE GUSTS
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. RH RECOVERS ABOVE 80% TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS, AND FAIRLY LOW MIN RH ARE IN STORE. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE INCREASING INTO THE 50S, NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WILL PUSH MIN RH INTO THE 33-45%
RANGE, LOWEST FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10-20 MPH, STRONGEST ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE IRON RANGE. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE ALSO FORECAST..
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. RH
RECOVERS ABOVE 60% SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
LESS STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS AT 15-25
MPH IN THE MORNING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DROPPING BELOW 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ELSEWHERE REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MIN RH IS FORECAST TO DIP TO 33-40% IN THE
I-35 CORRIDOR TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 45% OR
HIGHER ELSEWHERE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SUNDAY IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON A SCATTERED BASIS FOR
MORE OF THE NORTHLAND. AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND RANGE FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO FAR INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO 0.1-0.25" ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HWY 2
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL EXITS TO THE EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, OCTOBER
10TH AND 11TH, WHERE THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE IS WITHIN THREE
DEGREES OF APPROACHING THE RECORD TEMPERATURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES:
10/10: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 82/1938 82
KINL: 80/1955 78
KBRD: 85/1928 84
KHIB: 81/1938 80
KASX: 86/1938 86
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KASX: 86/2015 84
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 58/1938 63
KBRD: 58/1997 65
KHIB: 55/1938 61
KASX: 58/2015 64
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ141-142.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
CLIMATE...KML
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