258
FXUS63 KDLH 222140
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS AND
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FROM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN OR
A WINTRY MIX ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
REST OF TODAY:
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-EVENING AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. MILD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
20S AND UPPER TEENS THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT - MONDAY:
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST-CENTRAL MN BORDER CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MN AND CENTRAL WI TONIGHT THROUGH DAYTIME MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
ONCE AGAIN, AS MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE EITHER SOUTH OR EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN AND MUCH OF NW WI WILL
GENERALLY SEE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF, ASIDE
FROM AMOUNTS AROUND 0.05-0.15 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN WASHBURN,
SAWYER, AND PRICE COUNTIES. THIS PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO
FALL AS A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE STARTING LATE THIS EVENING IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AND
CONTINUING EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NW WI TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION DEPTHS OF AROUND 1KM TO 1.5KM DEEP WITH SOME WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL FORCING IN THIS LAYER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF TIME WHERE CLOUD ICE IS PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO IF AND HOW LONG THIS
CLOUD ICE CAN SEED THE LOW-LEVEL SATURATED LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND CREATE MORE SNOW VS. FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE EXTENT OF THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION/FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MN AND THE TWIN PORTS. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO SEE THE
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE,
THOUGH THE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM COMES TO AN END.
IN TOTAL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO MOST OF NW WI, WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH IN SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY.
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK PRETTY PATCHY, WITH A LIGHT
GLAZE (UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) POSSIBLE FOR THESE
SAME LOCATIONS. THIS COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR A TRANSIENT, LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
BAND TO TRAVEL DOWN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH SHORE AND
THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE SOUTH SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
AND RATES WITHIN THIS BAND LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH NO MORE
THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH THE
SNOW BAND.
TUESDAY - CHRISTMAS DAY:
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL SEE MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND AND A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S, AND WARM EVEN MORE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY, THOUGH PREDOMINATELY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE.
LATE THIS WEEK - NEXT WEEKEND:
PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WE
HAVE BUILT UP. MID-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/CLUSTERS POINT TO THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND THEN EJECTING NORTHEAST
INTO EITHER THE UPPER MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES. THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE,
BUT THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS A BETTER FEED OF MOISTURE THAN
WE HAVE SEEN WITH RECENT SYSTEMS (FORECAST NAEFS PWAT VALUES ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 97-99 PERCENTILE OF MODEL CLIMATOLOGY). GIVEN
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND, LIQUID RAIN SEEMS TO BE
THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
WINTRY MIX DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR AREAS IF/WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
MVFR STRATUS OCCURRING AROUND MIDDAY TODAY IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR COMPLETELY AT BRD AND HYR. HIB AND DLH
MAY ALSO SEE VFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER, EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT TO
IFR AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, LINGERING AT MOST
SITES INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT
AT INL LATE MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR LIFR
CEILINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAFS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND
PERHAPS BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY FOR BRD AND HYR, WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR
VISIBILITIES.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-18 KNOTS AT BRD AND HYR, WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN BACK TO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
WEAKENING SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND THIS EVENING, AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS NEAR GRAND PORTAGE AND THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS,
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE WEAKENING WINDS,
LINGERING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET CONTINUE NORTH OF
GRAND MARAIS TOWARDS GRAND PORTAGE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE OUTER APOSTLES TO SAXON HARBOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WINDS TURN BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK, WITH GUSTS
REMAINING AROUND OR LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
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