910
FXUS63 KDLH 181138
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER FOR TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
RETURNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH SOME 50S BY
THE LAKE.
- INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN THE TWIN PORTS FOR TODAY
AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY SPIN OVER THE DAKOTAS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, KEEPING THE
NORTHLAND IN ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER
GLOOMY SKIES. THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
UPPER LOW, THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE WAVES, IN COMBINATION WITH A PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE AND BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP TO
HERE WILL HELP TO PUSH WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS
THIS MORNING, MOISTURE IS STILL BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA, AS
IS BEING SHOWN BY THE DIFFERENCE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN
THE 00Z SOUNDING AT KMPX WITH A PWAT VALUES OF 1.50IN VS KINL
WITH A PWAT OF 0.88IN, AND A LARGE DRY LAYER BETWEEN 400 AND
700MB. WE EXPECT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS A BIT TOO FAR WEST FOR A COHERENT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT WITH THE CONSISTENT WARM MOIST
ADVECTION GOING ON, I EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW GETS A LITTLE CLOSER
AND OUR MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER, SO I EXPECT THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS UPPER LOW FINALLY EASES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY,
ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. THE
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TODAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH SOME 50S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE ABOVE
NORMAL SIDE, WITH ONLY THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD DIPPING INTO THE
40S AND THE REMAINING AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S.
AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LOW WILL GET PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST BY A SHORT RIDGE, EVEN AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH THE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHING WITH SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN TRANSITIONING
INTO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO WORSEN AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADS TOWARDS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A MIXTURE OF VFR, MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ALL MVFR THIS MORNING, THOUGH KDLH MAY
REMAIN IFR AS NORTHEAST WINDS CAUSE CEILINGS LOWER THERE. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO
VFR FOR KHIB, KINL, KBRD AND KHYR AROUND 21Z, ONLY TO LOWER
AGAIN AFTER 00Z, DIPPING BACK INTO IFR FOR KDLH AND KBRD.
EASTERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE FOR KDLH THIS MORNING, BECOMING
GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
OTHER TERMINALS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST, BUT SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA, THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
ON THE LAKE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHERE WINDS ACCELERATE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ARM OF THE LAKE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. SHORT TERM GALE WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ140>147-
150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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