671
FXUS63 KDLH 100007
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
707 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED DAILY FREEZE-THAW CYCLES.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
INTO THE NEW WEEK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH
MELTING SNOW, MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WERE
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE HIGH CONTINUED TO BUILD
IN. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
BUT NOTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. KEPT MINIMAL CHANCES ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN WAVE PASSES THROUGH, BUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES IS UNLIKELY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY, RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURES A GULF CONNECTION BRINGING AMPLE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DRY
AIR AT THE SURFACE AND LINGERING RIDGING ALOFT, SO PRECIPITATION
MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THIS FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP WILL
BE A MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN, PERHAPS ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ZONES MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S WITH 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
AFTER A BREAK DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 09.12Z
SUITE OF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS SECOND SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH, KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED WARMER FOR THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME
FRAME, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO MORE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH PERHAPS SOME PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE. MODELS VARY IN MOVING
THIS SECOND SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. COMBINING
THE TWO SYSTEMS RESULTS IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
FROM THE LAKE MILLE LACS AREA TO THE NORTH SHORE AND EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTY
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WITH
THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
TOP OF THE SNOWPACK, MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS SOME OF THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE BASINS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND A BIT COOLER
STARTING MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND THEN 40S AND
50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS A STRATUS DECK PERSISTS. A WEAK SYSTEM IS
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT AS FAR
NORTH AS BRD TO HYR THIS EVENING. DRY AIR WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY IMPROVING TOWARD SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MORNING AT 5-8KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN
BECOME EASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, THOUGH
AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD REACH 10-15 MPH WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. GIVEN A
SIGNAL FOR DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO 6000-7500 FT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MIN RH VALUES FALL TO 25-45%, AND BELOW 35% FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI. THESE RH VALUES MAY
TREND EVEN LOWER, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THAT ARE SNOW-FREE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING 1 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. PORTIONS OF NW WI COULD SEE UP TO
AROUND 2" AS WELL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DAILY
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ARE LIKELY TO GET SNOW
TRANSFORMATION AND MELT STARTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE
SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MN, THE BRAINERD LAKES, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND SOUTHERN TIER OF WI COUNTIES IN OUR CWA IS FAIRLY
MINIMAL (LESS THAN 5" IN DEPTH AND 0.5-1.5" OF SWE) AND SEEMS LIKELY
TO MELT DOWN TO MOSTLY BARE GROUND BY SATURDAY. THE DAILY OVERNIGHT
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP TO MAKE FOR A
STEADY, CONTROLLED MELT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME INJECTION OF LIFE BACK INTO OUR AREA
WATERWAYS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
COME SATURDAY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS AND LOWS ABOVE FREEZING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF 24/7 SNOW MELT.
AREAS OF RAIN ARRIVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG A LINE FROM AITKIN TO ELY AND SOUTHEAST
WITH A 50-90% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2"+ POSSIBLE IN NW WI. RATES
THEMSELVES ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT TO LEAD TO CLASSIC OVERLAND
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. WHERE THIS RAIN IS COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THERE ARE AREAL AND RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS. BY THIS
WEEKEND, IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THE ONLY AREAS WITH REMAINING
SNOWPACK WOULD BE THOSE ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES WHERE SNOW
DEPTH IS STILL 8-30" WITH 2-8" OF SWE TODAY. WHILE SOME OF THAT SWE
IS EXPECTED TO MELT OUT BY SATURDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY
LEFT BY THE TIME RAIN BEGINS. CURRENT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS TO EXCEED THEIR
ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGES ON THE KNIFE, NEMADJI, AND BAD RIVERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE TYLER FORKS RIVER MAY CREST INTO
ITS MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WHICH LEADS TO IMPACTS ALONG HIGHWAY 169
NORTHEAST OF MELLEN. ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THE SOUTH SHORE MAY BE CLOSER
TO THE HIGHER SYNOPTIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS - SO BOTH AREAS OF REMAINING
SNOWPACK COULD ALSO BE UNDER SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE SHOULD HEED LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH
HYDROLOGY...LEVENS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page