516
FXUS63 KDLH 181750
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1150 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS
- A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW, WINTRY MIX, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY.
- A SECOND STORM MAY BRING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD QUICKLY FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A POWERFUL AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING, CONTINUING TO LASH THE
NORTHLAND WITH A VARIETY OF DANGEROUS HAZARDS. STRONG MID- TO-
UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE
MAINTAINING HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES. IN ADDITION, THIS HAS LEAD
TO SHOWERS THAT ARE CONVECTIVE, LEADING TO THUNDERSNOW THIS
MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA, WHILE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED UP TO
65 MPH THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE INTERACTING WITH THE LOCAL
TERRAIN AND PICKING UP MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE, SIGNIFICANTLY
BOOSTING SNOWFALL RATES TO NEARLY AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.
WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES OF SNOW
TODAY, THE NORTH SHORE RIDGE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 18
INCHES. VISIBILITY IN THESE BLIZZARD AND STORM WARNED AREAS
WILL FREQUENTLY DROP TO ZERO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY
FALLING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY, WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY. SNOW THAT FALLS TODAY WILL ALSO
BE WET AND HEAVY PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE,
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS BELOW 10. CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
WHEN SHOVELING SNOW. TRAVEL REMAINS TREACHEROUS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT TODAY FROM THE
DIFFERING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, AN INITIAL
GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS BEING COVERED BY
FRESH SNOW, HIDING VERY SLIPPERY SURFACES. IN THE TWIN PORTS, A
MIX OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES VERY DIFFICULT.
WE ARE WATCHING A SECOND COLORADO LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS CURRENT SYSTEM. THIS SECOND STORM WILL TAKE
A MORE SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY TRACK, MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
IOWA/ILLINOIS INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST WEATHER WILL STAY TO OUR EAST, THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND AN ADDITIONAL UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS SECOND SYSTEM, COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF ANY
ONE SOLUTION OF WHEN/WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE, STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50KTS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EVENING.
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS, FOG, AND A RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS AND WAVES
BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FEET, WITH OCCASIONAL HEIGHTS UP TO 14
FEET ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE, THOUGH WAVES WILL BE SMALL ALONG THE
SHORELINE AS WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF TODAY. APOSTLE
ISLANDS, HOWEVER, COULD SEE WAVES OF 8 TO 11 FT AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY
AS WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-011-
018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ012-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ025-
026-033>036.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>144.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ142.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ145-146-148-
150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...KML
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