481
FXUS63 KDLH 212342
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
642 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE TWIN
PORTS DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.
- SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE HARMED TONIGHT AS A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY, PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 60S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE A LOCALIZED
LAKE BREEZE KEEPS AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND THE TWIN
PORTS COOLER IN THE 50S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON, DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND CREATING
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES, A STRONG LAKE BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR, CREATING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT
AREA BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S POSING A RISK TO SENSITIVE PLANTS.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, ESTABLISHING A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S
INLAND AND COOLER 50S NEAR THE LAKE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTURE GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. CLOUD COVER
WILL THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. THIS
WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE REGION - ON THE ORDER OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH, BUT UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS IT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE 50S TO 60S.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
FEATURES A SHARP TRANSITION TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY,
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. BY
MEMORIAL DAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HOT AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS WILL SOAR
INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, THOUGH STILL COOLER BY
THE LAKE, RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. WHILE THE
PATTERN LOOKS LARGELY DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IF
SHORTWAVES ALIGN WITH INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE BRD AREA DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS FOR NOW THOUGH EXPECT BUILDING NORTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WAVES BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ON FRIDAY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS, LIKELY REQUIRING ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE FOR COASTAL
AREAS. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SIMILAR HUMIDITY LEVELS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT ALONGSIDE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 MPH. MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING
AS A RAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKING LIKE MORE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK THOUGH NOT AS MUCH WIND.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ012-019>021-037.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ037.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ001.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ144- 145.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...WOLFE
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
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