123
FXUS63 KDLH 052341
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IN THE BORDERLANDS AND ARROWHEAD TONIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE ARROWHEAD AND SOUTH SHORE SNOWBELT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2025
A WEAK CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BORDERLANDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO QUICKLY CREATE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LASTING INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE
INCH OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE BORDERLANDS TO ARROWHEAD.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL NORTH AND
EAST OF ELY FROM A LOCALIZED, BUT ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW SHOWER
CHANCE.
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST SUNDAY
NORTH OF US HWY 2, WHILE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SET UP SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY. A SECONDARY WEAK
CLIPPER AND TRAILING COLD FRONT AGAIN DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO THE SOUTH SHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND OF TWO CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE IS FORECAST TO BRING ANYWHERE FROM HALF- INCH TO A FEW
INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL (40-70% CHANCE) BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH
LESS THAN IN INCH IN THE ARROWHEAD. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL-BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE AS THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
LINGERS OVERHEAD.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENTERS THE REGION TUESDAY TO CREATE A
PATTERN CHANGE THAT STOPS THE LIGHT CLIPPER CHANCES FROM THE
NORTH AND CREATES A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN INTO MID-NEXT
WEEK. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TUESDAY, CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FROM 20-25%, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH THOUGH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN CHECK AT THIS POINT. THE MORE NOTABLE RIDGE PATTERN
SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OF 20-30%
CHANCE AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
NORTHLAND BEING ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT POTENTIAL WEAK
LOW PRESSURE KEEPS A TIGHT GRADIENT OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THE
TWIN PORTS INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
EVEN FURTHER WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S TO 60S AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2025
A WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW IMPACTS AT INL COULD LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITY, WITH IFR
POTENTIAL LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. INL COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AS WELL. ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN PROB30 AS CONFIDENCE IN TERMINAL IMPACTS
IS LOWER THAN AT INL. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN
SNOW FOR TERMINALS EAST OF INL/HIB IN THE ARROWHEAD, HOWEVER.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EASE INTO LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THEN VEER NORTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING LEADING TO WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2025
WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY INCREASE
FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY (40-60% CHANCE)
GUST TO 25 KNOTS. THE DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE WAS LIMITED
ENOUGH THOUGH FOR THOSE 25 KNOT GUSTS TO KEEP WITHOUT ANY
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY AND A QUICK INCREASE IN SPEED FROM A PASSING COLD
FRONT IS VERY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST ZONES LASTING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...NLY
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