819
FXUS63 KDLH 030003
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
703 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- ON AND OFF CHANCES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- INDEPENDENCE DAY OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND AND 60S TO 70S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE TWIN PORTS MAY
CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY STORM POTENTIAL:
A BROAD THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI
HAS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS INTO EAST- CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER MCS OUT IN THE
DAKOTAS THAT HAVE NOW TRANSLATED TO NEW STORMS FIRING UP
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND NOW INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTUALLY QUITE HEALTHY.
THERE'S A SURFACE-BASED CAPE GRADIENT (1-2 KJ/KG) WHERE THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING, ~1 KJ/KG OF DCAPE, AND LOW- LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7-8 C/KM. UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND SO TOO IS SHEAR (SO THAT MAY LIMIT STORM'S
GROWTH POTENTIAL AND SUSTAINABILITY), BUT WITH THESE PARAMETERS
AND A FRONT IN PLACE, WE COULD SURE SEE A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND, AND WHILE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
THAT IS LIKELY TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WITH THESE IS THAT THEY WILL REACH THEIR MAXIMUM
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THEN WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST LIKELY, THESE
WILL BE NON- SEVERE. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THESE
LATER STORMS MAY BEHAVE, AS IT DEPENDS IN PART ON WHATEVER
STORMS POP OUT AHEAD OF IT.
FRIDAY LOOKS ALMOST LIKE A RINSE AND REPEAT WITH INSTABILITY
REDEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WE'LL LIKELY HAVE SOME REMNANT
SHOWERS AND STORMS SOMEWHERE DURING THE MORNING, THEN BUILDING
INSTABILITY THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN A VERY SIMILAR AREA OF EAST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS THREAT COULD
PERSIST A BIT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE INSTABILITY DECREASES.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - OTHER HAZARDS:
WE WILL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN TO THE NORTH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF
SORTS WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND SOME BREEZY WINDS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT TWIN PORTS BEACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE MID 80S, BUT HEAT
HEADLINES DON'T APPEAR TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
INDEPENDENCE DAY OUTLOOK:
WE'RE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AND WORK
IN-TANDEM WITH AN MCS. IF THIS HAPPENS, REMNANTS OF THAT COULD
MAKE IT TO THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME DURING THE DAY AND/OR EVENING
AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW PREDICTABILITY
ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME, SO DEFINITELY STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW, PLAN ON AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE PRETTY PLEASANT OUT THERE WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND AND 60S AND 70S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. AN
ALMOST CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS BLUSTERY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS STREAMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR, AND WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE, THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
FOR TWIN PORTS BEACHES. THIS WILL BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL WINDS LIGHTEN UP A BIT. CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THAT MAY BE OUT ON
THE WATER IN THE SAME PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
IT'S POSSIBLE WE MIGHT END UP WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL LOW ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWING
THAT, IT'S LOOKING LIKE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND ACTIVE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME WARM SPELLS
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOTS AT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MN, FROM DLH BACK TO NORTH OF BRD. WILL KEEP VCTS AT HIB, DLH,
AND BRD FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO DLH,
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 24KTS
AT DLH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, BUT
CHANCES OF IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITY, THRU SUNRISE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED DOWN TO
TACONITE HARBOR AND THROUGH 7 PM AS SOME STRONGER GUSTS MAY LAST
A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, EXPECT WINDS TO
LIGHTEN UP AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. I HAVE MADE THE
WIND FORECAST JUST ABOUT TO THE HIGHEST END OF GUIDANCE AS WE
OFTEN MAX OUT OUR WIND POTENTIAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH THAT,
WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THEY WILL BE CLOSE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. ON SATURDAY, EXPECT STRONGER WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS TO 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FT, PERHAPS LOCALLY TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LIGHTER ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WELL. EXPECT INTERMITTENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UPCOMING. WE WILL SEE WARM
WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT WITH PLENTIFUL
CHANCES IN THE NEXT WEEK, IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME SORT OF RAIN TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE IN THE SOILS. RH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW 35% ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY, SO NO
CONCERNS THERE EITHER. THE DRIEST DAYS MAY BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHEN STORM CHANCES DECREASE. EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ033-034-036-
038.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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