388
FXUS63 KDLH 100534
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE A NOTABLE WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED TO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
HIGHER PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE, WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH, SEEING THE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP
JUST INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THOSE BREEZES. ANY ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, AS
MARINE FOG EXPANDS INLAND, MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
THERE IS A WEAK COOL FRONT BACK TO OUR WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, THAT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE DECAYING SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS BY THAT TIME, WITH
LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND LOWER LAPSE RATES. TOMORROW, THE FRONT
WILL ARRIVE AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT, WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND AROUND 20KTS OF
BULK SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT GREAT
TOMORROW WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES. COVERAGE MIGHT NOT GREAT, BUT IF A STORM CAN GET
GOING AND SUSTAIN ITSELF, LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION,
MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVES SATURDAY, AND COULD INTERACT
WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND MOISTURE, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE HEAT WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO RECORD VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID JULY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO HANG AROUND, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL LIKELY NEED HEAT
HEADLINES WITH THIS COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
INCREASED MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL START TO PULL BACK
TO THE WEST MID WEEK, AND COULD SEE WEAK DISTURBANCES DROP DOWN
INTO THE NORTHLAND PROVIDING LOW RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD AFFECT DLH AND HYR THROUGH SUNRISE. AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, MOST LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW, SO
HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY VCSH GROUPS DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME RANGE.
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR BRD, SO HAVE ADDED AN ACTUAL SHRA
GROUP THERE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD
COME TO AN END THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST TO 10KTS AT THE HEAD OF LAKE WHERE
WINDS ARE MORE PERSISTENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. ANY STRONGER
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MARINE DENSE FOG FROM THIS
MORNING HAS PULLED BACK FROM THE COASTS INTO THE OPEN WATER.
WHILE GUIDANCE IS OVERZEALOUS WITH KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE
COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THE SETUP DOES SUPPORT THE FOG
RETURNING OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY TO THE OUTER APOSTLES AND THE
SOUTH SHORE.
A MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME LESS-THAN-ONE-FOOT
CHOP IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING HAZARDOUS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG WITH BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS, A QUICK DOWNPOUR, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY, BUT LESS LIKELY THAN FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S, EXPECT AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 25-40%
RANGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY ESPECIALLY DRY SPOTS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER DROPPING BELOW 25%. FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 12-18MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
BRING WITH IT SOME IMPROVED HUMIDITY (AFTERNOON RH 35-50%) AND
A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE ARROWHEAD IN THE EARLY
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REMAIN, SO AFTERNOON RH SHOULD
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY DROP INTO THE 35-45% RANGE, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME PARTICULARLY DRY SPOTS TO REACH 30%. SOME BREEZIER
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...HA/LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...HA/LEVENS
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