954
FXUS63 KDLH 081755
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1155 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
SUMMARY: WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SETUP TODAY UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THE
NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD START AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MIX LATER SATURDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVES WAY
TO A POTENTIALLY VERY IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM STARTING TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY.
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THIS
MORNING WHILE THE DEEP HUDSON LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO MOVES EASTWARD AND HAS CREATED
NEAR-SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES FURTHER WARM, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING,
FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN IA CREATES SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SNOW IN INTERIOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
ANY DOES FALL, MOST SHOULD BE FLURRIES OR ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW.
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND START THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.
MOIST LOW-LEVELS, CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT, WITH ASSOCIATED LIFT
COULD CREATE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING FLOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ADD ENHANCED ICING POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH
SHORE. FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
ANY GLAZE OF ICE FROM THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MID-DAY, A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS TO HELP TO TURN PRECIP TYPE MORE TOWARDS A
SNOW EVENT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE A TRACE TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTH SHORE MAY CREATE A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR SNOW EVEN INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE NORTHLAND IS A DEEP TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS EXITING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, IT WILL DEEPEN AND IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE
LOW CENTER IN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY NIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST IN THE NORTHLAND STARTING TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THAT
NIGHT. THIS COULD BE A PERIOD OF PLOWABLE SNOW AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
POINTS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONSENSUS IN THIS TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
LOW IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX
(FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET) IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA OR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AS WELL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON IF A
WARM NOSE ALOFT DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MOVES. THE MEAN
EASTERLY OVER- LAKE FLOW COULD LEAD TO LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM-PRODUCED
SNOWFALL. SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH
DECREASING CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO.
ALL IN ALL THOUGH, BEGIN TO THINK ABOUT ANY TRAVEL FOR NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS PLOWABLE SNOW COULD IMPACT IT. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO FUTURE DETAILS ABOUT FORECAST TRACK CHANGES AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
START TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWERING
CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG. BRD, DLH AND HYR WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD, SO HAVE KEPT HIB AND INL VFR WITH THIS UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
SEA SMOKE HAS FORMED IN THE IMMEDIATE TWIN PORTS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES THROUGH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS NORTH OF GRAND
MARAIS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR
GRAND PORTAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFT EASTERLY, BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE PERSISTENT EASTERLY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS NORTH OF TWO HARBORS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 24 14 32 23 / 0 0 10 20
INL 21 5 30 20 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 24 15 32 24 / 0 0 0 30
HYR 29 14 34 21 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 30 13 35 21 / 0 0 10 10
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...NLY
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