723
FXUS63 KDLH 170526
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT LESSER
CONFIDENCE THAN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
- A VERY CHILLY NIGHT AND WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT, THEN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW QUICKLY DECREASE COVERAGE OF
LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH-CENTAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT UNDER A PASSING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS
ACTUALLY INCREASING IN SPEED AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SETUP CREATES THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN STABILIZING OR ACTUALLY
INCREASING TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
CALM WINDS UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP OUT INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. EXPECT A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT, BUT
THE DULUTH OFFICE HAS ENDED THE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR
THE SEASON GIVEN EARLIER WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONDITIONS, SO NO
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS HARD FREEZE.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ABOUT A 20 TO
30TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TOMORROW, WHICH
PUTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 TO 38 PERCENT IN THE
FORECAST. THESE VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
AND HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED UPWARDS IN RECENT FORECASTS, SO NO
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT COVERING SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, FOLKS SHOULD STILL BE AWARE OF AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SATURDAY MID-DAY TO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF THIS SEMI-DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO FEATURE NO PRECIPITATION AND WARMING SUNDAY
ONWARD. CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING AREAWIDE
WILL DECREASE IN SPEED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB,
AND WE WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER DOMINATING THE NORTHLAND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LAKE BREEZES KEEPING
SHORELINE AREAS RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER.
HEADING DEEPER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET
AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER REMAINS LOCKED IN AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONTINENT AND TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION. THERE ARE VERY LOW-
END, 10 TO 20 PERCENT, CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD AND WARM UPPER- LEVEL
RIDGE MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME, AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN HEAVILY
FAVORED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST,
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING. ALOFT THERE IS A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL
INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE WE MIX OUT AND GUSTY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE SURFACE. AS
THE INVERSION SETS UP AGAIN THIS EVENING EXPECT ANOTHER DOSE OR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SMALL CRAFTS FROM
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE EXCEPTION BEING A POSSIBLE
SHORT WINDS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AND ELEVATED WAVES
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AGAIN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LOW- END GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA SO THIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY LOCALIZED AND SHORT-DURATION GALE WARNING
NEEDS SATURDAY MORNING....OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON EVEN STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, VERY LIKELY ALSO NECESSITATING ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES OR GALE WARNINGS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TAKES HOLD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 TO 38 PERCENT. WHEN COMBINED WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 TO 28 MPH, AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MID-DAY INTO EARLY
EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERS SLIGHTLY TO THE 35
TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. NO RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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