217
FXUS63 KDLH 141805
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
105 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE EVEN WORSE ON FRIDAY WITH RED FLAG
WARNINGS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
- AN ANOMALOUS SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
- HEAVY, POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT
TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DRIVE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH, COMBINED WITH AN INITIALLY VERY DRY AIR
MASS DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20S, WILL KEEP
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A LIFTING
WARM FRONT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, MUCH OF
THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE, AND
WE MAY SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING WHICH ALSO ADDS TO THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
TOMORROW BRINGS AN EVEN MORE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT.
AS A DRY, COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL TAP INTO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT, SENDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HOWL, GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RED
FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS SIGNIFICANT THREAT. BY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN, OFFERING LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY AS A HIGHLY
DYNAMIC AND POTENT TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING CENTRAL PRESSURES DROPPING BELOW 990
MB. THIS WILL TRIGGER A MASSIVE SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION WITH PWATS CREEPING TO 1.75", GENERATING A
LARGE, HIGHLY BUOYANT WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 2500
J/KG ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT, WHERE AN
ANOMALOUS OVERLAP OF BUOYANCY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT OUR
FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PARTICULARLY CONCERNING DAY FOR THE
NORTHLAND AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE INTENSE SHEAR, FORCING, AND
LOW-LEVEL KINEMATICS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD THREAT
FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. A POWERFUL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERFECTLY
CROSS THE MID-LEVEL JET, CREATING AN INTENSE SHEAR-BUOYANCY
OVERLAP. MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH FOR MID-MAY IN THE NORTHLAND, HIGHLIGHTING UP TO A 65
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND
THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE SPC'S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ALONGSIDE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY A
BROAD FOOTPRINT OF HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE WELCOME MOISTURE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, MAINLY TIED TO INTENSE
RAIN RATES WITH THE NORTHLAND HIGHLIGHTED IN WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A SECOND TRAILING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY ADDING TO THE
RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY GIVING ITS OWN ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BY MID-WEEK, WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN, RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH LINGERING, BREEZY SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL ALSO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON FRIDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 3 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT
FOR GALES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DRIVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL
INTRODUCE SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, MUCH OF THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE, AND WE
MAY SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING AND EVAPORATIONALLY COOLED ERRATIC,
GUSTY WINDS WHICH ALSO ADDS TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TOMORROW BRINGS AN EVEN MORE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT.
AS A DRY, COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL TAP INTO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT, SENDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HOWL, GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RED
FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS SIGNIFICANT THREAT. BY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN, OFFERING LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
A WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BRINGING WETTING
RAINS (UP TO TWO INCHES OR MORE WHICH WOULD SQUASH THE SPRING
FIRE WEATHER SEASON) AND MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ010-018-
025-026-033>036.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ011-019-
037-038.
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-141-142-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ143>145.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...WOLFE
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
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