705
FXUS63 KDLH 022321
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
521 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN, SNOW, AND RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA AND EXTENDED
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH, MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA WAS
SLOWLY ERODING AND BRINGING AN END TO FLURRIES. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN IRON COUNTY WITH LAKE-EFFECT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO AND MAY TREND A FEW DEGREES IN EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FOR TUESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY OUR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
THURSDAY. THE PARENT LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
INITIALLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN, SNOW,
AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 30S. RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS HAVE REDUCED THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE NBM PROBS
LESS THAN 5% ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO END THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR WILL CREEP IN
AS WELL LATE WEEKEND WITH SOME 30S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS BY
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ERODING THIS EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. ACROSS THE TERMINALS WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
MODELS ARE QUITE FRANKLY ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR CLOUD COVER AND
CEILINGS FOR THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. THIS SET OF TAFS MAINTAINS
THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BRING A LOT OF DRY AIR WITH IT BUT WE CAN'T FULLY DISMISS SOME
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER,
THE PROBABILITIES OVERALL SEEM LOW (LESS THEN 30%).
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN INCREASE THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AND MAY LEAD TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BJH
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