812
FXUS63 KDLH 031132
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
532 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRATUS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH SUNRISE.
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.
- A CLIPPER THURSDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND
WINTRY MIX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION IS PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS EARLY THIS TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, LEADING TO A COLD START
FOR COMMUTERS. WHILE SOME LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT STRATUS CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES ARE PRESENT OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DUE
TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AS THEY ARE EXPOSED TO SUNLIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A
QUIET AND SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID-TEENS.
CHANGES BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM LACKS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE WHAT LITTLE IT HAS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE
OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND EASTWARD INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 AND HIGHWAY 61
CORRIDORS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES HOLD ON THURSDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT WILL
INITIALLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE DAY, WE EXPECT A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OR A MESSY WINTRY MIX. THERE IS A SPECIFIC CONCERN FOR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN MID- MORNING THURSDAY
BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ICING REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
BY THURSDAY EVENING, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS RAIN OR A MIX AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE FASTER THAN THE AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING, SWITCHING
ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WHILE TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE LOW MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT,
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING AND
REFREEZING COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS, SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ADDITIONAL
CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS, BUT THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTS A
CONTINUED PATTERN OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLUCTUATING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY EXCEPT HYR. STRATUS WILL
LINGER FOR THE MORNING. THE HYR TAF HAS MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERING
BY LATE MORNING, BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS MODELS SUGGEST
THE CLOUD DECK REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH
THE SUN EXPECTED TODAY, IT IS SUSPECTED THAT THE MODELS ARE
HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING DECREASING
CEILINGS AND FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THESE ARE
CONVEYED WITH PROB30S FOR THE APPROPRIATE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND WAVES 1 FOOT
OR LESS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER APPROACHES, POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
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