872
FXUS63 KDLH 161135
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS GUSTING 25-40MPH PEAKING BY MIDDAY, THEN DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH POSSIBLE NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY.
- A VERY CHILLY NIGHT AND WIDESPREAD FREEZE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE RAIN WE ARE STILL
SEEING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STEADILY MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS MORNING, WITH A LITTLE LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST IS A NOTABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DAKOTAS, MAKING FOR A PROMINENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS IS LEADING TO WIND GUSTS OF
20-40MPH OVER WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN, WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE ZENITH FOR PEAK GUSTS
SHOULD BE OBSERVED BETWEEN NOW AND NOON, WITH WEAKENING GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY, THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING IN DRY AIR, ALONG WITH
SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. FIRST, LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S SATURDAY. THEN, A COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 30% AND SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30MPH COULD LEAD TO SOME NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE TO COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES,
BUT THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPREAD IN THAT VARIABLE WHICH COULD AFFECT
FINAL RH VALUES. WITH A SUNNY DAY EXPECTED THAT SHOULD INCREASE
MIXING, WE'RE STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AS A SURFACE LOW CUTS ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS MAIN BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH A COLD BIAS OVERNIGHT, SO BROUGHT UP
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER, AS DONE IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MORE OFF-AND-ON RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH SHORE AS COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL SURGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY, GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 45 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, BEFORE
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE AND SKIES CLEAR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES AND DRY AIR.
RHS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY WITH THE INITIAL POPULATION
OF FORECAST DATA, SO DECREASED THEM AGAIN TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THAT DAY.
NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE NEAR CRITICAL WITH THE COMBINED LOWER
RH OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
EXPECTED THAT DAY. UNDER THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
BACK TOWARD SIXTY DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, DRAGGING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED PASSING CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RH VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40% WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER WINDS, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY FIRE HEADLINES NEEDED. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT PATTERN DRIVER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL MAINTAIN DRY, MOSTLY CLEAR,
AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE SIXTIES.
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
MILD. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
AND WIDELY SCATTERED, WITH DRY CONDITIONS STILL FAVORED OVERALL
AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
THOSE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KNOTS POSSIBLE, PEAKING BETWEEN 12-18Z THIS MORNING, AND THEN
STEADILY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A VERY STRONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING, WITH GALES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. MAX GUSTS
COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ITS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS OVER 30KNOTS ARE
LIKELY (70% CHANCE), BUT GETTING ALL THE WAY TO 34KNOTS IS LESS
CERTAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY, AND A GALE WARNING IS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, PEAKING IN
THE LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON, AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY DIMINISHING RAIN
SHOWERS, WHICH SHOULD BE LARGELY OUT OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING.
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40-50%. SATURDAY WILL BE A DAY TO
WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE VERY DRY AIR WE WERE EXPECTING. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD STILL DROP TO 30-40% ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERING SLIGHTLY,
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35-45% RANGE.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-140>148-
150.
UPDATE...LEVENS
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...LEVENS
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