138
FXUS63 KDLH 062323
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
SUMMARY: DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE ON
AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ARE QUICKLY DWINDLING AS SKIES CLEAR OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE RISK FOR RIP TIDES ON THE BEACHES AT THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE.
SMOKEY/HAZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, BUT STILL LINGERS ALOFT. HAZE ALOFT COULD CONTINUE TO
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE DRY AIR AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SMOKE WITH IT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECASTED.
HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THOUGH
WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT, LITTLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE
GROUND EVEN IF THESE SHOWERS MANAGE TO FORM. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
LOW CHANCE, SLIGHT CHANCES TO SPRINKLES WERE ADDED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT, WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25%
IN BOTH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ON FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS,
AND COULD STILL MISS OUR AREA COMPLETELY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE DISSIPATED AT THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA
AS AN INFLUX OF A DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS CLEARED OUT
MOST OF THE SURFACE HAZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHTER OUT OF THE
EAST-NORTHEAST FOR DLH AND HYR, AND SOUTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR DLH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES UP TO 4 FT WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SECOND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER WEDNESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20
KTS UNTIL A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 48 67 44 71 / 10 10 0 0
INL 52 75 52 77 / 20 20 10 10
BRD 53 77 51 78 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 51 79 44 79 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 42 66 38 72 / 10 0 0 0
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...KOSSEN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...KOSSEN
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