896
FXUS63 KDLH 241148
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
548 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY WINTER SYSTEM IS SETTING UP TO AFFECT THE AREA DEC
25-26. A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND
HEAVY WET SNOW WHICH WILL AFFECT THE POST HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE
IS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US-2 COULD SEE A
GLAZE OF ICE ACCUMULATION.
- A SECOND SYSTEM TO FOLLOW THE FIRST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY - MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS OF CONCERN IN THE FORECAST, AND WHILE THEY
WILL BE MESSY AND WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES, WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT ANYTHING WITH A LOT OF BIG IMPACTS. THE FIRST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING
A MESSY, WINTRY MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
NEXT WILL BE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL ALSO HAVE A
WINTRY MIXTURE, BUT WILL ALSO ESCORT A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
WHICH SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER, THOUGH WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES.
THE LATE CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM IS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THEN SLIDES GENERALLY EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND IOWA AND THEN UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WI THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE LOW, AND IT
BEING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND, FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN
BY THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT, WHICH WILL BE
ROOTED IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
AT RISK OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION, THOUGH WITH THE LOOK OF THE
SOUNDINGS AND THE VERY LIGHT QPF THERE, IT MAY BE MORE FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAN ACTUAL FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE US2
CORRIDOR, THE SOUNDING SUPPORT SOME INITIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE,
BUT AS DEEPER SATURATION MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING, SLEET
LOOKS MORE LIKELY. NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE, IT TRANSITIONS TO
MOSTLY SNOW, THOUGH THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN THERE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE INCOMING MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE DOWN THROUGH THE MUCH DRIER LOWER LEVELS, CAUSING MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD IS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR THE
LONGEST, AND WE HAVE A SMALL AREA OF UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
FARTHER SOUTH, THE SNOW TAPERS OFF PRETTY QUICKLY, WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A GLAZE OF ICE IS
EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2, BOTH IN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT ON THIS SYSTEM FOR A DAY OR SO, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS OUT, AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
THE FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IS ALSO GOING TO
BE A WINTRY MIX MESS, WITH A GOOD STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST
FLOW PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WIL PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY, AND WITH A SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC LAYOUT AS THE CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM, WE WILL START OUT
WITH A WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY BEFORE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SWITCHES THINGS OVER TO SNOW BEFORE IT
ENDS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT AT THIS TIME, BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM ESCORTS IN AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ALL THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. A WEAK FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING IS BRINGING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW OR SLEET,
PRIMARILY TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
FOR NOW, IT APPEARS ONLY KINL IS AT RISK OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THIS, BUT WITH CLOUD BASES ABOVE 8KFT, DRY AIR BELOW THOSE
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35KTS ALOFT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LLWS FOR HIB/INL/BRD UNTIL 24/16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY FOR
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE. THIS CHANGES TONIGHT, AS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. WHILE GALES DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS
DIMINISH AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS, WITH
WIDESPREAD GALES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AND A 10 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD LARGE WAVES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE,
ALONG WITH CONCERNS FOR FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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