645
FXUS63 KDLH 182343
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
543 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE,
LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT.
- THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAINS COLD, AND BECOMES EVEN COLDER
NEXT WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND, BRINGING A WIDESPREAD ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE
INITIAL WAVE PROVIDED ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR MOST, A SECOND
SURGE OF ENERGY ARRIVES THIS EVENING. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL
NOT PROVIDE MUCH MORE SNOW, BUT LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM
BLOWING SNOW AND FRIGID AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY, GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS. THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND AREAS WITH LOWER
TREE DENSITY WILL LIKELY SEE BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING,
LEADING TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL. ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, THE
COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND INCOMING COLD AIR RUSHING DOWN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL ENHANCE THESE WINDS EVEN FURTHER, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AS THE ARCTIC AIR FLOODS IN, ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BECOME
FINER AND MORE PRONE TO BLOWING COMPARED TO THE SNOW THAT FELL
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR THE SOUTH SHORE, THE STORY IS
DIFFERENT AS THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. THE
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS WILL
LEAD TO EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH TO
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY.
RESIDENTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES
SHOULD ALSO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 3 INCHES DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF GRAVITY WAVES AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
THE MOST DANGEROUS ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST IS THE EXTREME COLD.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MARTIN
LUTHER KING JR. DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH THE ZERO MARK.
WHILE THERE MAY BE A VERY SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE REGION REMAINS LOCKED IN A BROAD
ARCTIC TROUGH. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY,
BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE-STARVED AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TIMING REMAINS DIFFERENT BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM, SO TIMING OF SNOWFALL IS UNCERTAIN.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, A REINFORCED SHOT OF EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. THIS AIR MASS
LOOKS DEEPER AND COLDER THAN THE CURRENT ONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY STAY STUCK IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS OR DOUBLE DIGITS. EVEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH, THE AIR WILL BE SO COLD THAT WIND CHILLS COULD REACH 45
BELOW ZERO IN SOME SPOTS DURING THE NIGHTTIME. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS THESE
VALUES CAN CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 10
MINUTES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR-IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW
CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. FALLING SNOW
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, BUT STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IS CAUSING VARIABLE VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW, RANGING
FROM VFR TO LIFR WHEN WINDS GUST NEAR 30KTS. THE MVFR STRATUS
WILL HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER AFTER SNOW ENDS AS WELL. ALL SITES
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 10Z, EVEN AS WIND GUSTS DROP BELOW
25KTS, AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CUMULUS LIKELY TO
POP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT MOST SITES
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR, THOUGH INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND THE TWIN
PORTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 40 KNOTS. FOR THE SOUTH SHORE, INCLUDING THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS, A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH WAVES UP TO 8 FEET AND SUB- ZERO WIND CHILLS
CREATES A HIGH RISK FOR RAPID ICE ACCUMULATION ON VESSELS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ020-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ025-
033>036.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>144.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LSZ140>142.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR LSZ142.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LSZ142.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LSZ143-144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ145>148-150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LSZ145>147-150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...KML
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