987
FXUS63 KDLH 062328
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A GLAZE OF ICE.
- A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING, PREDOMINANTLY DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH,
REINFORCING THE MUCH COOLER AIR, WHICH HAS STALLED TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SO FAR. A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM OUR LINGERING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH SUNSET, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE WEAK LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES ARE ONGOING.
FOR TONIGHT, SKIES WILL FULLY CLEAR AS A ROBUST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MANITOBA. THIS SETUP, COMBINED WITH THE
FRESH SNOWPACK AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS, PROVIDES IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR NORTH AND THE
IRON RANGE COULD SEE VALUES DIP BELOW ZERO, WITH SOME SITES
APPROACHING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE. CURIOUSLY, THE
NBM GAVE US OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH SEEMS COUNTER INTUITIVE. HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN TO BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH, AND LOWERED SOME OF OUR
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN MORE. THIS IS ON THE LOW END OF THE RAW
AND MOS GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY STARTS CLEAR AND COLD, BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP, INITIATING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUSH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40. THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLIPPER- LIKE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RAMPING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST WE WILL
START OUT WITH A WINTRY MIX WHICH TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, A SURGE OF
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION TRANSITIONS PRECIPITATION BACK TO MOSTLY
RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WARM SURGE MAY BRING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION TO GENERATE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER,
BUT HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD SURGE
INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY, THEN MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR SUNDAY.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL FEED OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AND SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME CALM BEFORE TURNING TO THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND INCREASING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AND
APOSTLE ISLANDS THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO NORTHWEST
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE. STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW, WHICH MAY REQUIRE NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE NORTH SHORE AS WAVES BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ147-
148-150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...LE
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