053
FXUS63 KDLH 220928
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
428 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1. AREAS OF FOG LINGER INTO THIS MORNING.
2. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT BEACHES NEAR THE
TWIN PORTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
3. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
4. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
5. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
THIS MORNING:
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE IRON RANGE/MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK, WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AS A THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE
PRECIPITATION, AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. THIS FOG
HAS GENERALLY NOT BEEN DENSE EXCEPT FOR ON A VERY PATCHY BASIS. IT
HAS DEVELOPED PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE INLAND AREAS NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AS WELL AS INLAND
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE THAT SAW PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE THE STATUS QUO AGAIN TODAY WITH
REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH THAT SAID, CAM GUIDANCE DOES
HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS NW WISCONSIN INTO THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 300-600 J/KG, WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL, BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY AWAY FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR, WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE MINNESOTA PARK POINT AND WISCONSIN POINT
BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THIS HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
THIS WEEKEND:
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VERTICALLY-
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY
AND SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHLAND ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
MOTIONS OF STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW, ALONG WITH 1-1.25 INCHES
OF PWAT (~90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY) AND
PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW NEARBY TO
KICK OFF SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
TIED TO WHETHER OR NOT STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS WITH THIS GIVEN ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY (SEE THE SPC
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK). THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME HERE
WHERE BULK SHEAR VECTORS AROUND 30-40 KNOTS, MLCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEGREES C/KM COULD
ORGANIZED STORMS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. INSTABILITY, AND THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH, SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, OTHER IMPACTFUL
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BE STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
35 MPH ARE FORECAST, BEING THE STRONGEST SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE MINNESOTA PARK POINT AND WISCONSIN POINT
BEACHES.
NEXT WEEK:
AS THE LOW PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AND DIVES SOUTHEAST, A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY MORE QUIET WEATHER WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S (A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ASHLAND AND
BAYFIELD COUNTIES THAT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG DEVELOPING AT DLH. HIB HAS ALSO SEEN A DROP IN
VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS IN FOG THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM STORMS THAT PASSED
OVERHEAD TODAY. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG AT HYR AND INL
TONIGHT, THOUGH DENSER FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO INTO
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR INL
TODAY AS WELL AS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT HYR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE
WINDS BECOME EVEN STRONGER ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO FAR NORTHEAST ONTARIO AND A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
THE HIGHEST OF THESE GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM TWO HARBORS
TO TOFTE. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THOSE WATERS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFERNOONS AND EVENINGS,
THOUGH THE WIND FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY A COUPLE
KNOTS RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BEGIN AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE WITH 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY SHOULD INCREASE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO 4 TO 8 FEET FOR MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, HIGHEST
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT STARTING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TWIN PORTS NEARSHORE
ZONES, AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN APPROACHING GALE FORCE WINDS WAS
TOO LOW WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST UPDATE, SO WE DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY GALE WATCHES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 70 56 67 55 / 20 40 50 30
INL 72 55 70 55 / 30 10 30 40
BRD 75 58 73 57 / 30 40 80 80
HYR 77 57 74 55 / 30 50 40 INTO20
ASX 73 56 72 56 / 20 40 40 20
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ141>143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page