940
FXUS63 KDLH 311748
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1248 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE.
- THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL (20% CHANCE) FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A LARGE WINTER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE NORTHLAND WITH HEAVY, WET SNOWFALL AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL BE PAIRED WITH A 24-HOUR PERIOD OF NORTHEAST GALES
ON LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH COULD CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
- A SECOND LARGE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING WET, HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHLAND. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTIVE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
TODAY:
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION BEING SLOW TO
FORM IN THE NORTHLAND DURING THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SATURATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES VARY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, WITH LIGHT RAIN
FOR FAR INLAND NW WI, A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE, AND
PRIMARILY SNOW FOR THE IRON RANGE AND AREAS NORTH. STILL LOOKING
AT A LIGHT GLAZE TO 0.05", WITH SOME POCKETS OF ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 0.10" INCHES, HIGHEST BETWEEN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AND TWIN PORTS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY LATE
MORNING FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE
ARROWHEAD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS, THERE REMAINS A LOW (10-20% CHANCE) THAT A FEW,
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS COULD DEVELOP FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST FOR TODAY RANGE FROM A TRACE
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 0.5" FOR A INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO TWO HARBORS LINE, AND 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN FAR
NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AND LAKE/COOK COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY:
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH FAIRLY BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S, COLDEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS. THIS BRIEF DRY PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PERIOD
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TWO POTENT COLORADO LOWS LATE THIS WEEK - WEEKEND:
SYSTEM 1 - LATE WEDNESDAY PM THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING:
A PROMINENT COLORADO LOW WILL TAKE AIM AT THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING
TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE TRENDS
CONTINUE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH EASTERN
IOWA/FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CONCERN WITH THIS MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK HAS BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND EVEN RAIN MIXING INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO THE TWIN PORTS DAYTIME THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES FARTHER NORTHWEST FAVOR ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF EARLY APRIL
WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DENT IN ANY DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITHOUT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. SHOULD THE HEAVIER RATES FALL
OUTSIDE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, THEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD
TREND HIGHER. THEREFORE, ANY SMALL WIGGLES IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TIMING COULD PLAY A HUGE FACTOR IN
FORECAST SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR, LEADING TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR LOCATIONS SURROUNDING LAKE SUPERIOR.
SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH OCCUR NEAREST THE LAKE. AS OF NOW,
THE HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND IN THE BETTER SYNOPTICALLY-FORCED SNOW BAND IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
UNCERTAINTIES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED TODAY. TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES.
SYSTEM 2 - LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, ANOTHER COLORADO LOW
WILL TAKE AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILE WITH THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO BE WARMER THAN FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM, SO THE
EXTENT OF ICE AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY EXTEND A BIT FARTHER
NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IN ADDITION TO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND
SYSTEM IS LOWER THAN FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM, SO THERE IS MORE
VARIABILITY IN HOW MUCH AND THE AREAL EXTENT OF ICE AND RAIN
COULD MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS LIKELY TO
BE OF A HEAVIER, WET CONSISTENCY, PARTICULARLY FOR WHEN IT IS
FALLING DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. STAY TUNED ON
THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK
AND RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS INCREASES.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR EASTER WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY
RETURN AT DLH AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT ELEVATED WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT
AND WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FT AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN GUSTS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
COULD APPROACH UP TO 40 KT, LOCALLY TO 45 KT AS WAVES BUILD TO
10 TO 14 FT. EXPECT A BRIEF WEAKENING TREND INTO DAYTIME FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER COLORADO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>143-146-147-150.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ140.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ141>147-150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
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