931
FXUS63 KDLH 110836
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
236 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN TRENDING COLDER
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THERE ARE PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS OUT THERE THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BRIEFLY THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP SCATTER THESE LOW CLOUDS
OUT. HOWEVER, DON'T EXPECT SKIES IN GENERAL TO CLEAR OUT TOO
MUCH, AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE WITH HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING IN MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE IRON RANGE, AND GRAZING PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE A QUICK-
MOVER, SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AN INCH
OR LESS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURATED LAYER ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE -10C, SO THAT WON'T BE VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR
LARGE DENDRITES AND SUBSEQUENT HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. WHILE A
LOCALIZED AMOUNT APPROACHING 2 INCHES CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, IT'S LOOKING UNLIKELY (~5-10% CHANCE).
TONIGHT, AFTER THE SNOW ENDS, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL SATURATION FOR SOME FOG AND PERHAPS LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. I KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING MAINLY IN THE SAME PLACES
WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THERE MAY NOT
BE A DEEP ENOUGH SATURATED LAYER ONCE DRIER AIR MOVES IN, BUT
THERE'S AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (~15%).
EXPECT A MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHOULD BRING
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
A MIX OF ANYTHING WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
FREEZING. TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY
BE COOLING THROUGH THE DAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. ANY MORNING MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER
TO LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT SOME BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THIS AS
WELL. WE WILL GET PWATS INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY
AS THIS CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH, SO DESPITE ITS SOMEWHAT QUICK
MOVEMENT, A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
PLACES. WE'LL PROBABLY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH SHORE
GRAVITY-WAVE ENHANCEMENT AND THEN LAKE-EFFECT IN THE USUAL
SOUTH SHORE SNOWBELTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL, SO
THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THERE.
THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT AND
IMPACTFUL, AROUND THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR BEHIND IT TO BRING US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE'LL PROBABLY
SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS AND
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE
MORNING, BUT THEY MAY BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MIX OUT WHEN THEY DO
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. A PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON IS THEN EXPECTED, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER PASSES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED AT INL AND IT MAY JUST GRAZE HIB AS WELL,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AT INL FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER, MORE MVFR CEILINGS
MAY MOVE IN. EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SOME LLWS POSSIBLE AT DLH/BRD/HYR INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY LESSEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WERE
EXTENDED INTO AND THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT LINGERING HIGH WAVE
HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING WITH A BRIEF MIDDAY BREAK BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES
STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SNOW AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL. WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT,
THEN RE-STRENGTHEN AS ANOTHER CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH GOING INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ147-148-150.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
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