963
FXUS63 KDLH 181137
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT THU APR 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TODAY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH COLDER
AIR.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
- AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE NORTHLAND NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH SOME WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU APR 18 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
COLDER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHLAND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY GET BRUSHED BY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE (20-50%) OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOWERS MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
SNOW AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
EXIST. THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE
ROLLS WILL OCCUR AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DON'T
ANTICIPATE MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM -6 TO -10C. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH. A BETTER CHANCE AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR (20-60%) OVER THE NORTHLAND,
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
8-9C/KM, ARE FORECAST AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME WEAK
CAPE. THE RAP IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THE CAPE FRIDAY WHICH MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE. STRONGER SHOWERS, RAIN OR SNOW, WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE STRONGER
APRIL SUN AND FORECAST SURFACE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER THIRTIES TO
MID-FORTIES SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT SUDDEN VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO SNOW OCCURRING WITH HIGHER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SURFACE RIDGING JUST OFF TO THE WEST.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE FORTIES BUT WARM INTO THE FIFTIES
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BUT VARY ON ITS TRACK. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW PLENTY OF SPREAD WITH 06Z TUESDAY
SURFACE CENTERS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA. THE
LOW IS NOT VERY DEEP AND QPF NOT VERY HIGH BUT A WINTRY MIX
COULD RESULT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 18 2024
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MVFR OR LOW VFR CEILINGS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST INTO THE NORTHLAND. THESE AND ALSO SOME
CUMULUS IN ANY CLEAR SPOTS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MOST TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BUT IT'S EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF KHYR. MORE SHOWERS,
RAIN AND SNOW, MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
CHANCES FOR MVFR DECREASING SOUTH.
THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS STILL OCCURRING OVER
PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THEN SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU APR 18 2024
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR SMALLER
VESSELS, WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOPING AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET. THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BUT RAMP UP AGAIN FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST
WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 25 KNOTS BUT THEN SUBSIDE A BIT INTO SUNDAY. WE ISSUED A
LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS STARTING TODAY AND ENDING SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR LSZ140>143-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
MARINE...MELDE
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