497
FXUS63 KDLH 042344
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL WAVES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- GENERALLY SPEAKING, MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH 0.10 TO 0.40 INCH EXPECTED WITH MOST GETTING
THE LOWER AMOUNTS OR LESS.
- HEAT DOME NEXT WEEK BRINGS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO ENTIRE REGION
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) IMPACTS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY, A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. THESE STRONGER CELLS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT,
GIVING WAY TO QUIET CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND THE REGION TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION TURNS TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT DRIVES SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BUILD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
WARRANTING A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 (MARGINAL RISK) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THE
RISK WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
HIGHLY VARIABLE, GENERALLY RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO FOUR-TENTHS
OF AN INCH, THOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS WHILE SOME AREAS MISS OUT ENTIRELY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A
BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS QUIET
INTERLUDE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TIGHTEN, INITIATING A
SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PLACING THE REGION FIRMLY INTO AN EARLY SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN.
A HEAT DOME SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONSECUTIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FORECAST FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DRAW HIGH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD, DRIVING UP DEW POINTS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. DUE TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THESE HOT DAYS AND WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE NEED FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION
WILL SEE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK IMPACTS WITH AREAS
OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
DAILY, ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH NO WIDESPREAD PATTERN-BREAKING
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DISRUPT THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND IF THEY WILL OR WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS DIRECTLY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER HIB/BRD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS, BUT
THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS SUCH THAT THOSE TERMINALS
MAY ONLY SEE SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME STORMS COULD FILL IN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THOUGH
(APPROXIMATELY 20-30% CHANCE). THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY FILL IN
AND AFFECT DLH AND EVENTUALLY HYR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
THROUGH.
THERE ARE SOME STRONG SIGNALS FOR FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT
SEVERAL TERMINALS, NOTABLY HIB/DLH/BRD AFTER MOISTURE FROM
STORMS PASSES THROUGH AND THE FRONT PASSES BY THIS EVENING.
ON FRIDAY, MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT BRD/HYR AND POSSIBLY DLH DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET CONDITIONS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET OR LESS.
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVES WILL DROP TO 1
FOOT OR LESS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO EASTERLY SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT PASSES TONIGHT, TURNING
WINDS NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH
FRIDAY, KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S.
WETTING RAIN CHANCES HAVE DWINDLED, WITH SPARSE, SCATTERED
AMOUNTS UNDER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS
RULE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY TO WATCH FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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