500  
FXUS63 KDLH 051212  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
612 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- DRY TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
- SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
- GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS  
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WAS  
BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BUT ANY  
PRECIPITATION WAS BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED  
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND RUNS INTO THE AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE. SOME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE  
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH  
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S FAR  
SOUTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST, A TIGHTENING  
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS  
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT MORE  
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  
THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY  
MORNING AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, SPREADING RAIN  
AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN  
BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN  
MINNESOTA WITH ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING ROUGHLY NORTH OF  
MINNESOTA HIGHWAY 210. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER AN  
INCH, PARTS OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN ST.  
LOUIS COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2". THERE  
IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3"  
IN FAR NORTHWESTERN KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER  
40S.  
 
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE  
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON  
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.  
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE  
NORTHLAND WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY. NO  
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE  
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH PRICE COUNTY MAY BE  
CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID-  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH  
THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL  
REMAIN VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY  
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE  
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY  
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THAT WILL  
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING  
WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE.  
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY STARTING ON  
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A  
CHANCE (10-20%) OF GALES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DURING THE HEIGHT  
OF THE WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS  
WELL.  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BJH  
AVIATION...BJH  
MARINE...BJH  
 
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