550
FXUS63 KDLH 222129
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR IRON COUNTY, WI. EXPECT
AN ADDITIONAL 1-4" BETWEEN 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
- FLURRIES AND A FEW STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
COOK COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A BROAD 300 MB CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY WERE EVIDENT ON
GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN AREA OF CHANNELIZED VORTICITY
WAS LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA AND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORNING STRATUS HAS GIVEN
WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EAST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS WAS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND WAS ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN THE AREAS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPED, A SMALL AMOUNT (10-30 J/KG) OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WAS FOUND. GOES-EAST BAND 2 IMAGERY
REVEALED HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS OVER THOSE AREAS. THE ROLLS
ARE TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE AHEAD
INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEEPEN
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN IRON COUNTY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, LOOK
FOR DRIER AIR, WEAKENING WINDS, AND INCREASED SHEAR OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO TAPER THE SNOW DOWN TO FLURRIES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR IRON
COUNTY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL PERSISTS
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER EASTWARD ON MONDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY. A CONVERGENCE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING FLOW AHEAD OF A MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY CLIPPER. THE BAND OF SNOW WILL MIGRATE
NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE FROM NEAR TWO HARBORS TO GRAND MARAIS. ACCUMULATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN AN
INCH.
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WILL BE
ANOMALOUSLY LOW BY TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL APPROACH THE 5TH
PERCENTILE OF CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. NAM AND RAP 3-HOUR PRESSURE
CHANGE IS FORECAST TO BE 6 TO 9 MILLIBARS AS THE LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM IS SLOWER AND BETTER ORGANIZED THAN THE OTHER
MODELS WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM. THE NAM SOLUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO THE ECMWF AND THE
CANADIAN GPDS. ECMWF ENSEMBLES FEATURE A TIGHT CLUSTER IN LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS WHILE THE GEPS AND GEFS HAVE LESS AGREEMENT.
ALL MODELS FEATURE A FAST-MOVING LOW AND A STRIPE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM GRAND MARAIS TO
GRAND PORTAGE TUESDAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE DYNAMIC FORCING OF THE CLIPPER. WE
EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES IN THOSE
AREAS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE IN THE 12-16:1 RANGE DURING THAT
TIME, CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE FEBRUARY THAN
LAST WEEK'S SYSTEM. THUS THE SNOW CONSISTENCY WILL BE LIGHTER
AND LESS DENSE. SNOW RATES OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FARTHER WEST AS THE FRONTOGENESIS MOVES EASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN 1/4 MILE ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. WE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN/LAKESHORE PORTIONS OF COOK
COUNTY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FAVORABLE FORCING,
TEMPERATURE PROFILES, AND LAKE-ENHANCEMENT SUGGEST TOTAL SNOW IN
THAT AREA OF 3 TO 8 INCHES. NBM PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW ARE MAXIMIZED EAST OF GRAND MARAIS AND EXTEND TO
NEAR GRAND PORTAGE. IF WINDS DON'T VEER AS MUCH TUESDAY, THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SHORE.
AREAS FARTHER INLAND AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH LATER UPDATES.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY AS THE COMPACT SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW AS IT PASSES. THE LATEST FORECASTS
GENERALLY KEEP THAT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH AND MAY MISS THE
NORTHLAND COMPLETELY. FOR NOW WE CONTINUE TO CARRY SNOW CHANCES
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-2 IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL WOBBLE NORTH AND
THEN SOUTH AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN LIKELY COOLER
NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR ON THE
HORIZON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MVFR STRATUS OVER TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. STILL
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. OPTED FOR TEMPOS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER WHILE MAINTAINING PROB30 ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FAST-
MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY (24.06Z UNTIL 24.22Z).
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS (WITH OCCASIONAL GALES TO 35
KNOTS NEAR GRAND MARAIS) WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER VESSELS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND WAVES, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM. GALES OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS MAY DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF GALES WILL BE FROM SILVER BAY TO
GRAND PORTAGE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ021.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ141>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ148-150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
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