906
FXUS63 KDLH 221116
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
616 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FINAL 70 DEGREE F DAY FORECAST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, COOLER IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- BAND OF RAIN MOVES WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS TODAY, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- COOLER AIRMASS TONIGHT BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT CREATES
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES (20-30%) IN FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY
BECOMING 50S TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
A MAINLY DRY WARM FRONT IS LIFTING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND CREATING LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME SO KEEPING WITH SPRINKLE MENTIONS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
EXITS THE AREA NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK WARM FRONT ARE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS A WARM AIRMASS REMAINS FOR ONE FINAL DAY IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HAVE KEPT LOW 70S IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY, WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AREAS IN
NW WI POSSIBLY (30% CHANCE) OVERACHIEVING INTO THE MID-70S THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER WESTWARD, NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAINS
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S TODAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION SETS UP SOONER IN THOSE COUNTIES.
WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA, EXPECT TIMING OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
CHANCES TO INCREASE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE
SUNRISE TO MID-MORNING HOURS TODAY. A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COINCIDES WITH THE
RAINFALL BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY TO CREATE A
20% CHANCE OF EMBEDDED FLASHES OF LIGHTNING AND RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE INTO EARLY EVENING
TODAY, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
REST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTH SHORE.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITHIN THAT COLDER
AIRMASS SUPPORTS A 20-30% CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED BEYOND A TRACE MAYBE ON TOP OF GRASSY SURFACES
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE ACTUAL STILL-WARM GROUND LEVEL.
A NOTICEABLE COOLER DAY WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-40S TOMORROW. WHEN YOU
COMBINE THE MORNING WIND AND TEMPERATURES, BUS STOP WIND CHILLS
IN THE LOW TO MID-20S ARE EXPECTED EVEN THOUGH YOUR LOCAL
TEMPERATURE MAY STILL BE IN THE MID-30S.
BEHIND THE COLDEST AIRMASS EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE IN SPEED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH
QUICKLY SLIDES EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO CREATE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL MANITOBA DRAPES A WEAK TROUGH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS THURSDAY TO CREATE THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL CHANCES (40-60%) IN THE NORTHLAND BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THIS WEAK LATE WORK
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH TO KEEP NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHLAND AND MINIMIZES ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES.
UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
PRODUCES A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. AS
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUNDAY SLIDES EASTWARD,
RETURN FLOW PROMOTES A WARM UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK INTO THE
60S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ALLOWING A DRY
PATTERN TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 12-14Z THIS
MORNING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (20% CHANCE DAYTIME IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA) AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY AFTER 00Z WED. OFF-AND-ON RAIN
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT, WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA 06-12Z WED. A SHIELD OF MVFR STRATUS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT AND DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
FUNNELING BETWEEN ISLE ROYAL AND THE MAINLAND NEAR GRAND
PORTAGE IS FORECAST TO CREATE SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO
EFFECT FIRST FOR THAT ZONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BUILDING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THEN HIGHEST EARLY TO MID-EVENING TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES AT
4 PM TODAY FOR THOSE POST-FRONTAL WINDS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TAPERING IN SPEED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LINGERING ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 4 FEET
SUBSIDE LAST IN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE FINAL ADVISORY DROPS OFF.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>144.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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