992
FXUS63 KDLH 071154
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
554 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVES THIS EVENING, BRINGING A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW FOR THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A THIN GLAZE OF ICE
FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL IN THE
ARROWHEAD.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE ARROWHEAD.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL ALSO BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. SEA GULL LAKE IS REPORTING 25 BELOW AS OF 3
AM, AND APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST REPORT SO FAR THIS MORNING.
THE COLDEST AREAS ARE NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE WHERE THERE ARE
SEVERAL READINGS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THIS COLD
SNAP WILL BE BRIEF. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TODAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL KICKSTART A WARMING TREND,
HELPING TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE WE START WITH SUNSHINE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO
THICKEN UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.
A WEAK, FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE EXISTING COLD AIRMASS AND COLD AIR
ALOFT, THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER,
AROUND THE TRAILING EDGES OF THE SNOW, THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF A SWITCH TO FZDZ AS WE LOSE ICE ALOFT IN THE WEAK FORCING
ENVIRONMENT. WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL SNOW, AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY, MILDER AIR CONTINUES
TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER
FAST MOVING BUT GENERALLY WEAK CLIPPER WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO MAINLY THE ARROWHEAD. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
A WARM NOSE THAT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALOFT, LEADING TO THE
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR A WINTRY PRECIP MIX. THE BULK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ONTARIO, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THERE AND WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION.
THE BIG STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS THE WARMTH. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S, AND WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER,
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. WHILE WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
GENERALLY KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR. AFTER 08.00Z A WEAK CLIPPER
PASSES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
AROUND 08.00Z AND 08.12Z. VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW AND/OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS OF 4 AM CST THIS MORNING AS
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WINDS TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WAVES GENERALLY 1 FOOT OR LESS. A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY, AS IT
GRADUALLY SWINGS AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY, AND THEN
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WAVES TO REMAIN GENERALLY 1 FOOT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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