840
FXUS63 KDLH 120608
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1208 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. TOTALS
OF A TENTH TO AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, LOCALLY HIGHER FOR
THE SOUTH SHORE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, WHILE THE NORTH SHORE COULD SEE GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO WHILE WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE
TEENS TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH EVEN COLDER VALUES INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND FLURRIES FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MN. FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. A CLIPPER PUSHES
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND BRUSHES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
DRAGGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS, MOSTLY A COUPLE TENTHS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE BORDERLANDS AND
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR MOST FOLKS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WHICH COULD GIVE THEM AN EXTRA
INCH.
AS CAN SOMETIMES BE THE CASE WITH CLIPPERS, A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MN MID
TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PUSH EAST ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING WINDS OF 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-
35MPH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH THE FRESH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND AN EXISTING SNOWPACK THAT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH
OF A CRUST YET. ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES, A FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO SET UP
PARALLEL TO THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME AS
KATABATIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO ACCELERATE - ALL OF THIS ON TOP
OF THE ZESTY SYNOPTIC NORTHWEST WINDS. HAVE BOOSTED OUR WINDS FROM
DULUTH TO GRAND PORTAGE WITH MANY OF THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL BOXES
BEING TICKED. THE ONLY THING THAT GAVE US SOME PAUSE TO NOT GO MUCH
ABOVE 40-45MPH WITH THIS UPDATE IS THAT THE FRONT MOVES OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY, WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW LONG THE DOWNSLOPE PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS MAXIMALLY ENHANCED. STILL, HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
SUGGESTIONS OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO EXCEED 50MPH
BETWEEN 6PM FRIDAY TO 3AM SATURDAY, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR COASTAL LAKE AND COOK COUNTY. WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY EASING INTO
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, FRIDAY'S CLIPPER WILL PULL BEHIND IT A
LEVIATHAN OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY, ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRIGID. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO FOR SATURDAY MORNING, AND MOST OF THE
AREA IS PROJECTED TO SEE HIGHS STAY NEGATIVE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. ONLY THOSE RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT BE LUCKY ENOUGH
TO HAVE A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF POSITIVE 1-6F. TEMPERATURES PLUNGE
AGAIN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES BACK IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE BRUTAL COLD SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD ALL WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE
20S AND 30S ARE LIKELY, AND DAYTIME WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. HAVE OPTED TO PUT THE ENTIRE CWA IN A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING MIDNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MID
MORNING. DESPITE WARMING UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE OUR TRUE CRITERIA DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, THIS IS THE FIRST TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, AND MANY FOLKS ARE ATTENDING OR ORGANIZING HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES, SO HAVE OPTED TO STAY ON THE LENIENT SIDE.
GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THE UPSWING OF
THEIR ONGOING ROLLERCOASTER RIDE. WE'LL GO FROM TEMPERATURES BEING
20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY TO BEING 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, AS HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THANKS TO WEAK RIDGING AND ZONAL
FLOW PULLING WARMER AIR FROM THE PNW. A SYSTEM COULD BRUSH OUR
NORTH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MORE MILD AIRMASS THEN STICKS
AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK
WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW, AND MAYBE A LITTLE RAIN, BUT
THERE IS STILL A VERY LARGE DISPERSION IN EXACT TRACK/TIMING FOR
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
OUR NEXT CLIPPER IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR. MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND END LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING IN SOME IFR CEILINGS IN SPOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR WITH
THIS UPDATE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH WINDS RAPIDLY RAMPING UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING
WAVES ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM AROUND
PORT WING TO THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO DAYTIME SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIRLY CALM WINDS TODAY SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A PASSING FRONT BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL. AS THAT FRONT
PASSES, MUCH STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
REALLY QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE THEY WILL BE
ENHANCED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED WINDS FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM 6PM
FRIDAY TO 6PM SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO BE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND
SILVER BAY. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND IN THE OPEN WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES,
SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY BE POSSIBLE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140>143.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page