188
FXUS63 KDLH 252338
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
538 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE FRIGID NIGHT WITH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MN AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION.
- CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROVIDING A
DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
- ABOVE ZERO TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WE WARM BACK TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TONIGHT:
ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS OVERHEAD TODAY WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LARGELY BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POPPING UP IN NW WI. THE NORTHLAND WILL HAVE TO ENDURE
ONE MORE BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO BE -30F TO
-45F MONDAY MORNING. OUR USUAL COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN MN LOOK HAVE
POTENTIAL TO HIT COLD WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS START TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY:
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE NORTHLAND
FINALLY MAKES IT'S EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A VERY WEAK
CLIPPER TO DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HELPING TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
STARTS TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR SNOW TO HIT THE SURFACE. THE SYSTEM
ALSO DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP WELL OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM AS PWATS ARE
BARELY HITTING 0.02" GIVEN THE QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT
THE BEST FORCING DOESN'T ALIGN WITH A SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILE WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW. THIS CURRENT FORECAST GIVES THE REGION
A DUSTING A SNOW WITH NW WI MAXING OUT AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
TUESDAY - FRIDAY:
BEHIND THE MONDAY CLIPPER WE WILL SEE ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR BUT
NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS WE HAD TO ENDURE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS INSTEAD OF THE TWENTIES AND THIRTIES WE
HAVE SEEN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
WEEKEND:
A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WE
COULD SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IS VERY
WIDE AND THE LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BE VERY WEAK. STILL 6 TO 7
DAYS OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A VERY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. CURRENT POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND ARE ONLY AROUND 20% DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOME LINGERING STREAMS OF MVFR CLOUDS
ARE LEADING TO OCCASIONAL LOWERING AT BRD, AND HAVE KEPT THAT
GOING WITH A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THEY DISSIPATE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE AHEAD
OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLACEMENT
AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO FORCING BEING MISPLACED
FROM THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, BUT THERE IS STILL AT
LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE
IN THE EVENING HOURS. BY TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY BUT AND WEAKEN SOME BUT STILL LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CAUSE ISSUES FOR SMALL VESSELS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021-
025-033>038.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-
019-026.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ140.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BRITT
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