741
FXUS63 KDLH 061929
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
129 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME ISOLATED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS STILL EXIST ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS DUE TO DENSE FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE THOUGH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MITIGATE THIS
HAZARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
- THE SYSTEM THEN TRANSITIONS INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF MESSY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH
RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, TURNING INTO A WINTRY MIX
AND SNOW TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
- ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AND MINOR SNOW
AMOUNTS UNDER TWO INCHES COULD LEAD TO SLICK ROADS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
- CLIPPERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A TRAIN OF IMPULSES INTO THE NORTHLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, ONGOING DENSE
FOG AND POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL KEEP TRAVEL DANGEROUS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. DENSE FOG ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WILL LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
AS WARMER AIR PUSHES NORTHWARD, PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY FALL
AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM AS INSTABILITY BUILDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. MUCAPE IS ONLY 300 J/KG OR
SO, BUT 0-6KM SHEAR IS PLENTIFUL AND STRONG AT 75 KT WITH LONG
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS. NO SEVERE THREAT IN MY OPINION THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT, COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL TURN THE RAIN INTO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET,
EVENTUALLY TURNING OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM FOR ALL OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA TO COVER THIS ICY TRANSITION. DIDN'T GET
TOO CUTE ON THE TIMING EXCEPT THAT KNOW CONDITIONS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON IN KOOCH AND TRANSITION EASTWARD
FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN LAKE COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED, PRIMARILY
IMPACTING ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS. THE HIGHEST ICE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AND
DECREASES ICING AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINOR, GENERALLY STAYING UNDER TWO INCHES, BUT FALLING
TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE ANY STANDING WATER TO FREEZE OVERNIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 20S.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS,
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH
WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH WILL GENERATE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN REMAINS FAST AND SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO MORE SEASONAL RANGES WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE FAIRLY IN
LINE WITH SOME SNOW ON TUESDAY WITH CLIPPER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. LOOKS
LIKE SOME AGREEMENT ON A MORE WOUND UP SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR 18Z TO 20Z BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING, AT WHICH POINT FOG AND SCATTERED DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. VLIFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND LIFR TO
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SCATTERED DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN IN THIS BAND COULD HAVE A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR HYR THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY DLH,
BUT POTENTIAL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAF
FORECASTS. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW STARTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THEN
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AREA WHERE RAIN WILL MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL
COMPLETELY TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST, AS WELL. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, BRD AND INL MAY
ALREADY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND HIB AND DLH TO
MVFR, WHILE HYR WILL LIKELY STILL BE IFR THROUGH THE END OF THE
CURRENT 18Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
AND RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. A MAJOR SHIFT
OCCURS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTH SHORE, WHERE SOUTHWEST GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS, BUILDING WAVES TO 4 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE
WESTERN ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ140-141.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...WOLFE
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