363
FXUS63 KDLH 070800
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE COLD FRONT LEADING TO SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS ONCE AGAIN SPED
UP IN MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS THIS EARLY MORNING. STORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN CUT OFF
FROM A CAP ALOFT, WHICH IS LEADING TO A GRAVITY IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TODAY, STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING
TOWARDS UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND NORTH SHORE. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH AND DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND FAR NORTHERN MONTANA. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED FROM ANOTHER LOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
SHORE OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO,
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WAS CREATING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH RECORDED. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO
THE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, BUT WITH DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
THE FRONT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, REACHING THE NORTH SHORE AND
TWIN PORTS BY AROUND MIDDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
MORNING AS IT WORKS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG TO A FEW POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 20
KNOTS, SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW END WITH MAINLY PULSE-
TYPE STORMS. DECENT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7C/KM AND DCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN A LOW END THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CHANCES FOR
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CURRENT TIMING,
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
RETURNING MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH OF INL, BUT SHOULD JUST REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HYR MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND COULD LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7AM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO
THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND MORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS, A LOT OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 40%, WHILE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S. THE PATTERN
FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND AFTER WITH
MINIMUM RHS 30-50%. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, BUT WILL DECREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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