012
FXUS63 KDLH 281735
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM ONGOING TODAY LASTS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LATEST TRENDS HAVE DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA, WITH RESULTING HEADLINE CHANGES FOR MOST OF OUR NE
MN COUNTIES.
- PEAK SNOWFALL RATES OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR PINE
COUNTY AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW TOTALS FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES TO THE TWIN PORTS.
- STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-60 MPH WILL LEAD
TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE, AND LOCALIZED
INTERMITTENT WHITEOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER NEW SNOW IS
FALLING THIS EVENING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WE'RE ENJOYING THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH
SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE AIR MOVEMENT YET MEAN THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE STILL AROUND.
GENERALLY, THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS LESSENED BUT IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT WE'LL SEE COMPLETELY FULL VISIBILITY BEFORE PRECIPITATION
STARTS THROUGH TODAY.
TODAY'S WEATHER MAKER IS ON TRACK, WITH A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CHUGGING ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THIS NIGHT SHIFT,
WHICH AT THE TIME OF WRITING HAD JUST SEEN ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE DROP
UNDER 1000MB. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM, MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN -
REACHING A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE LOW 980S BY THE TIME IT'S
CROSSING LAKE HURON EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TRACK AND RAPID
DEEPENING IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEND ITSELF TO SOME IMPRESSIVE
SYNOPTICS AND WINTER WEATHER, THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MESOSCALE
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE:
- THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUED A TREND WE SAW IN SOME MODELS
YESTERDAY, BRINGING MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MN, AND
LEADING TO A MUCH SHARPER NORTHERN SNOWFALL GRADIENT. THIS HAS LED
TO FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE TO
FALL SHORT OF AN INCH, AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
BORDERLANDS, IRON RANGE, AND PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED.
- THESE MOST RECENT TRENDS BRING THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY TO THE
POTENTIAL SWATH OF SNOW THAT MAY FALL FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE
TWIN PORTS. USING DULUTH AS AN EXAMPLE, THERE'S SOME GUIDANCE THAT
GIVES THE CITY A DUSTING WHILE OTHER MODELS GIVE US AS MUCH AS 11" -
THIS KIND OF SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AREA, INCLUDING PARTIALLY UP THE NORTH SHORE AS WELL.
WITH THIS UPDATE, WE HAVE OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THOSE AREAS FROM A
WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, SINCE MOST 00Z
GUIDANCE DID CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A DOWNWARD TREND AND OUR FORECAST
IS TOWARDS THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THERE DOES EXIST A REALITY
WHERE SOME OR ALL OF THESE ADVISORIES WOULD HAVE TO BE RE-UPGRADED
TO A WARNING SHOULD NEAR-TERM MODEL TRENDS AND MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST
IT, BUT WE'VE TRIED OUR BEST TO FOLLOW THE FULL SUITE OF MODELS AND
A COUPLE PERSONAL GUT CHECKS WITH THIS HEADLINE DECISION. IF A RE-
UPGRADE WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AITKIN
AND THE CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS ZONES.
- FOR PINE COUNTY AND ACROSS NW WI, THE FORECAST HAS STAYED MUCH
MORE STEADY. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE VARIATIONS IN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DUE TO A QUESTION OF JUST HOW HIGH SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST MESOSCALE FORCING, BUT OVERALL THE
FLOOR FOR LOWEST POSSIBLE AMOUNTS IS MUCH HIGHER HERE. GENERALLY
EXPECTING AT LEAST 6-12", WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10-20" FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT BELTS. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1"/HOUR
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF NW WI, AND SOME OF
THOSE HIGHER RATES SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES.
WITH THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW, STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 30-60MPH, STRONGEST
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. FOR THE NORTH SHORE, HAVE KEPT THE WIND
ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING THAT THE DAY SHIFT ISSUED, TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT THREAT OF 50-60MPH WIND GUSTS, WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THERE. WIND
GUSTS OF 35+MPH WILL COMBINE WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE REST OF NW
WI AND PINE COUNTY WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF, LOCALIZED
WHITEOUTS THIS EVENING AS THE BEST RATES AND WIND GUSTS OVERLAP, BUT
THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS PERSISTENT NOR
WIDESPREAD AS THEY WILL BE WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.
OUTSIDE OF THE CHANGES OUTLINED ABOVE, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MINOR
HEADLINE TIMING CHANGES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
STORM DEPARTING THE AREA SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS
FORECASTS EXPECTED. BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES TOMORROW MORNING MOST
SNOW SHOULD BE OVER OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH SHORE, WITH ONLY SOME
LINGERING BLUSTERY WINDS THAT COULD STILL BE CAUSING SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
ANOTHER QUICK CLIPPER IS STILL EXPECTED TO ZOOM OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY, BRINGING SOME QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS TO
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. BETWEEN TODAY'S STORM AND TUESDAY'S CLIPPER,
WE SHOULD SEE AN EFFICIENT PUSH A COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH MOST DAYS SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR
COLDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
CONTINUED ON/OFF CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW THROUGH THE NEW YEAR. CPC
OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT (20-40%) CHANCE FOR A RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEYOND MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST OTHER
TERMINALS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND KEEP WITH
VARIATIONS OF LIFR TO IFR VIS AND CEILINGS INTO THE 06Z TONIGHT
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING LASTING INTO 15Z AND
WILL CREATE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
SCOUR OUT 09-15Z WITH VFR CEILINGS INTO THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, STRONGEST ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE. MOST AREAS HAVE GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT, WITH A STORM
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. A COUPLE
LOCALIZED STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SILVER BAY TO
GRAND MARAIS, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT AS FURTHER UP THE SHORE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN AT FIRST THAT
SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO ALL SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO BANDS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ020.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ025-
033>037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ038.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ006-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ001-002.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ008-009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR
LSZ121-141>148-150.
STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR
LSZ140.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140-145>148-150.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
MONDAY FOR LSZ142.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR
LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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