884
FXUS63 KDLH 011858
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING BACK UP AFTER TODAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A MESSY SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. 10-30% CHANCE FOR A GLAZE
OF ICE IN THE MN ARROWHEAD, WITH SOME WET HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY IN SOME PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. CHANCES HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SNOWFALL OF 2" OR MORE.
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
A QUIET SUNNY DAY TODAY UNDER CAA, WITH SOME SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS TAPERING OFF. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED.
WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY,
RETURNING ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WAA REALLY STRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY, EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, SLIGHTLY
COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN COOK COUNTY. FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2, THERE IS A 40-75% CHANCE THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 50F OR JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE - COULD
EASILY BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER THAT WE SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE 50F.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A ZESTY, TIGHTLY WOUND COLORADO LOW EJECTS
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH MOST ENSEMBLE
TRACKS SHOWING IT THEN SWEEPING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES. IF IT WASN'T
FOR THE IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR, THIS SYSTEM
WOULD BE A PERFECT HEAVY SNOWFALL PRODUCER. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE
SNOW LOVERS, INSTEAD THIS LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A MESS OF A SYSTEM
WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION TYPES.
TUESDAY MORNING, AN INITIAL WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH OVER
NORTHERN MN, AND DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN, BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A GLAZE TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND INTO THE
MN ARROWHEAD. THEN, THROUGH TUESDAY THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVES, MOST
LIKELY AS RAIN INITIALLY WITH A LITTLE SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY, THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. TIMING IS GOOD
FOR THE OCCLUDED QUADRANT TO BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT,
WHICH COULD MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR AREAS OF HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF FREEZING, AND A
COUPLE DEGREE SHIFT COULD RESULT IN A LARGE P-TYPE PARADIGM SHIFT.
THE CHANCE FOR 2" OR MORE HAS EXPANDED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, WITH A
35-90% CHANCE NOW COVERING MUCH OF THE MN ARROWHEAD, DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR, AND ACROSS NW WI. AREAS ACROSS NW WI AND ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE CLOSER TO THE TWIN PORTS HAVE A 50-75% OF 4" OR
MORE. WITH THIS SYSTEM IN DAYS 4-5, THERE IS STILL CERTAINLY PLENTY
THAT COULD CHANGE. WHATEVER SNOW DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY
HEAVY AND WET.
AS THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS, FAIRLY MILD AND QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS DIE TO
VARIABLE OR NEAR 0 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZES TODAY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT. WE SEE A BRISK
SOUTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE WINDS SWING
AROUND AND BECOME VERY STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME, AND
THERE IS A 50-90% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 12
FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM, SO THERE SHOULDN'T BE TOO
MUCH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, AND CALM INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
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