444
FXUS63 KDLH 171805
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1205 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A POWERFUL AND MESSY WINTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY,
WET SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND STRONG WINDS
TO THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING TO THURSDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
STARTING TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON FROM VERY STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
QUIET THIS MORNING AS WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST FLOWING TOWARDS A
STRENGTHENING LOW OUT WEST.
WINTER STORM SET UP:
A DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS HAS LED TO A STRONG POLAR FRONT JET
DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SET UP HAS SPAWNED A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL
PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE
CURRENT FLOW OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO TAP INTO
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS FLOWING
INTO BAJA. THIS MOISTURE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN AT BOTH THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHEN VIEWING THE ALPW. THIS INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IS REGISTERING NEAR THE MAX OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE GEFS WITH
PWATS OVER 0.75" THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO A NOTICEABLE 986MB
WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM OF CFSR REFORECASTS. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
TRACK STILL OSCILLATES A LITTLE WITH RUN TO RUN OF THE MODELS WHICH
IS LEADING TO SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WARM FRONT PLACEMENT.
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT:
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT
WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME BEFORE WE CAN SATURATE THE COLUMN FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCES RAMP UP
AFTER 6PM IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND SPREADS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL INITIALLY HAVE A STOUT WARM NOSE ALOFT FOR MOST
OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD. RAIN WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
A WINTRY MIX NORTH AND SNOW FOR FAR NORTH. THE WARM NOSE WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SNOW BECOMING
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS NORTHERN MN. STRONG FGEN CIRCULATIONS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BANDING SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER
HOUR AT TIMES. THE NORTH SHORE IN PARTICULAR WILL SEE SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT WHICH COULD BOOST THEIR SNOW RATES UP TO 3" PER HOUR.
WITH SO MUCH WARM AIR LINGERING ABOUT IN THE ATMOSPHERE THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW QUITE BIT OF RIMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO DENDRITES
CLUMPING TO SUPERCOOLED WATER AND LOWERING THE SLR TO 5:1 - 8:1.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR THE WET HEAVY TYPE OF SNOW THAT FEELS LIKE
CONCRETE TO MOVE AND STICKS EXTREMELY WELL TO TREES AND POWER LINES.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS CREATES
SEVERAL PROBLEMS. THE SNOWFALL RATES COMBINED WITH THE HIGH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND NEAR
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SNOW
LOADED TREE BRANCHES SNAPPING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.
ONE OTHER INTERESTING TIDBIT WITH THIS STORM SET UP IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO ARISE. RAP IS PICKING
UP ON SOME MUCAPE OF 300 J/KG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8C/KM IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS COULD MANIFEST INTO A
FEW STORMS OR THUNDERSNOW AT TIMES. THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT
COULD ALSO HELP DRIVE SOME INCREASED PRECIPITATION RATES. OUR
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS QUICKLY DROP OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODEL TRENDS AND UPDATES:
WITH THIS PACKAGE UPDATE WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR THE NORTH SHORE BUT THERE MAY BE A NEED TO EXPAND THIS DOWN INTO
THE TWIN PORTS. THE 00Z RUN OF THE HREF SHOWED INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY PAIRED WITH STRONGER WINDS. THE
EFI FOR WINDS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE DULUTH AREA. IF THESE TRENDS
HOLD ON FOR THE NEXT MODEL CYCLE AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED.
LOOKING AT QPF PLUMES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE FLOOR FOR MANY OF OUR
LOCATIONS IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS. FOR EXAMPLE, DULUTH HAS HIGH
CLUSTERING AT THE 1" MARK AND WITH OUR LOWER SLRS THAT WOULD PUT THE
FLOOR AT AROUND 7 INCHES. GOING THROUGH THESE CLUSTERS WE HAVE
UPDATED OUR HEADLINES. THE WINTER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AND FILLED
IN WITH WARNINGS FOR NORTH ST. LOUIS, KOOCHICHING, AND NORTHERN
ITASCA. NORTHERN CASS, SOUTHERN ITASCA, AITKIN, ASHLAND, AND IRON
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO AND ADVISORY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH YOU CAN KIND
OF TEASE OUT WHERE WE EXPECT OUR WARM FRONT TO SET UP BASED ON OUR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES NOT IN ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EXPERIENCE LARGELY
RAIN WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY:
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE BY FAR EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
SEVERAL CHANGES COMPARED TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NORTH SHORE
WILL STILL BE SEEING SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES BUT SHOULD BE
WORKING ITS WAY UP TOWARDS THUNDER BAY BY MID MORNING. THE CURRENT
LOW TRACK LOOKS TO INTRODUCE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN.
BETTER SATURATION WORKS BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW MOVER SO EXPECT CONTINUED SNOW THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FAVORED IN NW WI. COLDER AIR WILL BE
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLRS TO
INCREASE CLOSER TO THE CLASSIC 10:1 RATIO LEADING TO YOUR MORE
TYPICAL SNOW CONSISTENCY.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FILLS OVER THE NORTHLAND. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WHICH
WILL ACCUMULATE TO ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH
OF A REPRIEVE FOR THE NORTHLAND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO WORK ITS
WAY OUT OF MO AND UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT REMAIN HIGHLY CONTESTED AMONGST THE 00Z SUITE OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. BUT WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.
CLUSTERING OF THE LOW TRACKS CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THAT NW WI WOULD SEE
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY. THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR FRIDAY PRESENTLY SIT AROUND 40%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WERE INCREASING A LITTLE FASTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. THINK THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ACCORDINGLY. A LONG
DURATION WINTER STORM ARRIVES TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START
AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AT HIB AND DLH BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.
BRD WILL HAVE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HYR IS EXPECTED TO HAVE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY IN INTENSITY AND IN WATER CONTENT.
HIB AND DLH WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES WHILE INL AND BRD
WILL SEE LOWER SNOW RATES. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A FACTOR
IN ADDITION TO THE OTHER HAZARDS. A STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE CORE OF THE JET WILL FEATURE 65 TO
75 KNOT WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE
2KFT AGL AND CENTERED AROUND 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET AGL.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE INCREASING AS A WINTER STORM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GALE WARNINGS BEGIN AT NOON AND A STORM
WARNING STARTS ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE AT 9PM. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LEADING TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE
GALES INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ020-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ025-026-035.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ121-145>148-150.
STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ140>144.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ142>144.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...BRITT
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