011
FXUS63 KDLH 251110
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
610 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND BECOME MORE
BROAD INTO WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND AIDING IN LARGE SCALE LIFT. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND RANGE FROM AROUND
50 TO THE UPPER FIFTIES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF AND
THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS. WE KEPT THE SHOWERS TONIGHT ALL RAIN IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WE EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH. HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES A FEW
WET FLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE FIFTIES AS ONLY MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
SEPTEMBER ENDS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND A FEW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR ALMOST ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON A CLIPPER-LIKE
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO IN RESPONSE, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL PVA WILL PROVIDE STRONG
BROAD-SCALE LIFT, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PLENTIFUL LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN ITS
WAKE INTO FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT
AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
SATURDAY MORNING, MARKING WHAT MAY BE THE FIRST FREEZE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. (SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
IRON RANGE ALREADY REACHED THE FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS FALL
(INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND HIBBING), BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
INCLUDING DULUTH, BRAINERD, AND HAYWARD HAVE NOT YET REACHED 32
DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S, BUT PROBABLY THE BEST
WEATHER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD TO GET OUTSIDE WITH AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH, THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT, SO IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF SUNDAY ENDS UP BEING RAIN-FREE.
RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO REACH FARTHER NORTH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
MVFR CEILINGS STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT MOST SITES, THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS EVENING
AS CEILINGS LIFT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, DECREASING
TO WEST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 52 39 55 45 / 70 40 0 50
INL 51 36 55 42 / 20 20 20 60
BRD 53 39 58 46 / 60 10 0 40
HYR 54 39 56 46 / 70 50 10 40
ASX 55 43 57 46 / 80 70 10 50
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
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