123  
FXUS63 KDLH 172334  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
534 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CHARGE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RIDGING  
AT THE SURFACE FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA. THE CLOUDS THAT WERE  
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT 20Z/2PM, WILL CONTINUE TO  
ERODE/DEPART THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND  
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AS WELL,  
SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT NORTHWEST  
WISCONSIN. A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL  
BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION LATE  
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT  
WILL LEAD TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS, AS DOES A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT  
THAN EARLIER FORECASTED. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE WIND  
SPEEDS, INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER, AND BUMP UP THE TEMPS TONIGHT  
AND FRIDAY. WIND CHILL HEADLINES LEFT UNCHANGED, EVEN WITH  
AFOREMENTIONED MODIFICATIONS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
 
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE BITTER COLD  
AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT  
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  
 
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MAINLY  
CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND -25 ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL  
BORDER WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST  
WISCONSIN. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE -25 TO -40 F RANGE ARE  
POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY COLD DELTA-TS  
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF  
BAYFIELD, ASHLAND, AND IRON COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS  
IN THAT TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIND SHEAR CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE 925 MB  
TO 850 MB LAYER, WHICH MAY DISRUPT ORGANIZED LES PROCESSES. WINDS  
ALOFT BACK NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY, SHIFTING THE LES  
ORIENTATION TO A MORE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
CONFIGURATION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AS  
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY  
MORNING TO RANGE FROM AROUND -27 NORTH TO -5 ALONG THE LAKE  
SUPERIOR SHORE OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -40  
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.  
 
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR ZERO ALONG THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO  
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY  
WITH LIKELY SNOW FOR THE NORTHLAND. A COUPLE INCHES OF  
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHLAND,  
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE  
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA, LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY LINGER  
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS FROM AROUND -10 TO NEAR ZERO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD  
PROVIDING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE TONIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN SOME AREAS MAY DEVELOP CEILINGS FROM  
ROUGHLY 500-1000FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME  
SATURATION AT THOSE LEVELS DEVELOPING BUT THE ABSENCE OF LARGER  
SCALE LIFT WILL KEEP US FROM ADDING A CEILINGS ATTM.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH -10 3 -15 0 / 0 0 0 0  
INL -21 -6 -27 -7 / 0 0 0 0  
BRD -9 5 -16 2 / 0 0 0 0  
HYR -2 10 -4 9 / 10 10 10 10  
ASX 1 9 0 8 / 10 20 20 20  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR  
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-035-037.  
 
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GSF  
LONG TERM...HUYCK  
AVIATION...MELDE  
 
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