647
FXUS63 KDLH 231925
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
225 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT. THE NORTHLAND IS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND A SMALLER RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. THE THREAT IS HIGHEST OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SKIES CLEARED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. FARTHER WEST
OVERCAST SKIES PERSISTED KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER MINNESOTA SUPPORTED A SLOWLY
EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STRETCHING NORTH TO JUST WEST OF DULUTH. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
GOES-EAST INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED AN AREA OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY FEATURED A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED BETWEEN 1830Z AND 1915Z. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MLCAPE IN THAT CLEAR SLOT.
STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA MAY BECOME SURFACE-
BASED AS THE CAP ERODES AND MLCAPE INCREASES. RAP SOUNDING FROM
NEAR ST. CLOUD REVEALS CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 2 KM WITH THE GREATEST CURVATURE IN THE
0-1KM LAYER. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS SMALLER THAN THE RISK
OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH IT MAY INCREASE AS THE
CLEARING EXPANDS FARTHER NORTH. THE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND
700 MB WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL ENABLE
STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS FEATURE
LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND TRAJECTORIES ARE NEARLY STACKED
ABOVE 3 KM. STORMS WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW- LEVEL ASCENT
ENHANCEMENT THOUGH PARCEL EVACUATION WILL BE LIMITED IN THE TOP
HALF OF THE STORM. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE
UPDRAFT LIMITING STORM INTENSITY. INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS WILL
POSE THE GREATEST HAIL AND TORNADO RISK WHILE LATER STORM
MERGERS AND COLD POOL INTERACTIONS WILL SUPPORT A SHIFT TOWARD
DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH TIME. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A SMALL RISK OF ONE OR MORE TORNADOES
ARE THE THREATS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF
ONE OR TWO STORMS PRODUCING HAIL UP TO PING-PONG BALL SIZE.
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN DUE TO PWATS OVER AN INCH, THE
MOIST PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. THE
GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING IS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD (WHERE THERE
REMAINS NOTEWORTHY SNOW PACK AND RECENT MELTING).
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NORTHLAND DURING THE EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ARROWHEAD AND LOW
TO UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL LINGER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER WITH NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOW 60S. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 35
PERCENT IN MINNESOTA WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE ARROWHEAD AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WILL NOT DRY OUT AS MUCH DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LOITER
LONGER OVER THOSE AREAS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM NORTHOME TO TWO HARBORS (EXCEPT
SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES) AND THE MIDDLE 30S
FARTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH LOW RH VALUES
FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MINNESOTA. RAIN
AMOUNTS WOULD BE SMALL, LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. GFS IS A
BIT MORE BROADBRUSHED WITH PRECIPITATION FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
POINT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY DURING THAT PERIOD. AMPLE POLEWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITH THAT SYSTEM RAISES A CONCERN ABOUT MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING
ON THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE RAINFALL. THE CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER AROUND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT ADVANCES EAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SNOWFLAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT HIB, INL,
AND BRD WILL PERSIST AND TREND LOWER AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO DLH AND HYR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR OR
LIFR VISIBILITY. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS NEAR
HYR. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A
COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN FRIDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
PERSISTENT EASTERLY AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BUILD WAVES TO 2 TO 5 FEET ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SHORE TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND PORTAGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS, AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SILVER BAY TO
GRAND MARAIS FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD NOT POSE A RISK TO BOATERS UNTIL
MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
TENTH TO TWO INCHES ARE FORECAST. THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF SAWYER,
ASHLAND, PRICE AND, IRON COUNTIES. FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP DRY ONCE
AGAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE BRAINERD LAKES WITH
RHS FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT. RHS WILL REMAIN HIGHER FARTHER EAST
AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE SLOW TO DEPART ON FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS WELL WITH RHS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
VARIABLE TURNING SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY MAY SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RHS WILL NOT BE AS LOW UNLESS
SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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