387
FXUS63 KDLH 012331
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.
- MILD WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION, INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. DUE TO THE SYSTEMS SLOWER MOVEMENT, EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE INCREASED, AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BETWEEN 0.5 AND
1.0 INCHES. WHILE RIVERS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA, SUCH AS THE
VERMILION RIVER AT CRANE LAKE AND THE SOUTH KAWISHIWI RIVER NEAR
ELY, ARE ELEVATED AND NEAR ACTION STAGES, THEY WOULD REQUIRE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN (AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES) TO REACH
FLOOD LEVELS, WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.
BY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT. COOLER AIR
FLOWING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE ARROWHEAD REGION MIGHT
CAUSE SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
HOWEVER, SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE
(LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE ARROWHEAD).
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN,
PREVENTING PRECIPITATION AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. HOWEVER, AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
REMAIN COOLER, AS THE LAKE TEMPERATURE IS STILL A CHILLY 37°F.
DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WHICH COULD MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY OR NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
CURRENTLY A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
RAIN OVERSPREADS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT TO CREATE LOWERING VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINALS UNDER
THE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. EXPECT LINGERING IFR TO AREAS
OF LIFR CEILINGS AFTER THE RAIN CLEARS FROM 06 TO 15Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE IN SPEED AND
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST AREAS TO END THIS
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE AND MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL VESSELS. AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JW
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...JW
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