223
FXUS63 KMPX 150459
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3-4" ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY & COULD LEAD
TO LOW VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TONIGHT... QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION. IT'LL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT, KEEPING WIND CHILLS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR BELOW
ZERO.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AM... A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIRECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW, STARTING
THURSDAY MORNING IN WESTERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND LASTING AS
LATE AS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN WI. THE FIRST
ROUND ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAKER, AND MAY
NOT FULLY MATERIALIZE UNTIL REACHING EAST-CENTRAL MN AND
WESTERN WI AROUND MID-LATE MORNING. ABOUT A HALF TO 1 INCH IS
POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ICE NUCLEI BECOMING LIMITED
ALOFT (WITHIN THE DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED, THERE WILL POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
NOTICEABLE ICE ACCRETION (OUTSIDE OF COLDER, ELEVATED SURFACES),
AND CURRENTLY FAVOR A LULL IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING AS WRAP- AROUND SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN. A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH
OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM MORRIS, MN TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AND MUCH OF WESTERN WI.
AFTER THAT INITIAL PUSH OF SNOW THURSDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
MAY BECOME MORE ON AND OFF (SNOW SHOWERS) THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT,
THIS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL MN. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION SET UPS TEND TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL OUTPUT, WHICH
WOULD MEAN TO EXPECT UP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH FOR WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN.
AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL FAVORED TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MN, AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES, AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. IT MAY BE HARD
FOR SOME AREAS TO REALIZE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION, ESPECIALLY
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN, WITH HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE
FRIDAY. A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI, HOWEVER WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OVER A
LONGER PERIOD AND ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND THAT 3-4" MARK, WE
HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THAT
IS IF AMOUNTS TREND HIGHER OR IF THE IMPACT TO TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE WORSE. A SEPARATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEED FOR THE IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN.
SATURDAY PM THROUGH WEDNESDAY... COLD REMAINS THE MAIN STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR TEENS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE COLDEST DAYS ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED, WHICH COULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 TO 20 BELOW
EVEN DURING THE DAY BOTH SATURDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM
COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH QPF IS
VIRTUALLY ZERO. THIS MORE JUST GIVES US A DAY OF RELIEF FROM THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VERY FEW CHANGES FROM THE 15/00Z TAF SET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT INITIALIZATION WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10KTS AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL RUN W TO NW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
15-25KTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CEILINGS
ARRIVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE IN THE MID-LEVELS,
EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INTERMITTENT -SN DEVELOPING. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF RELATIVELY HEAVIER SNOW AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A GROWING CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN AN INTERMITTENT
FASHION BEYOND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-2" RANGE ON THE MN SIDE FROM MIDDAY THU
TO MIDDAY FRI, WHILE WI TAFS LOOKS TO RUN IN THE 2-4" RANGE
DURING THE SAME TIME.
KMSP...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW
LATE MORNING, GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO, SO HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 MENTION FOR THAT POTENTIAL. THE BETTER SATURATION WILL
OCCUR BY MIDDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE START TIME OF -SN INTO
MSP AT 16Z WITH INTERMITTENT ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW THEREAFTER.
EVEN WITH THE LONG DURATION MENTION, THE INTENSITY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WILL BE ABOUT A HALF INCH OR LESS. ANY RELATIVELY
HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK THURSDAY
EVENING, THUS HAVE ADVERTISED VISIBILITIES IN MVFR RANGE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MVFR-WORTHY CEILINGS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
SUN...VFR CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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