352
FXUS63 KMPX 290518
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
COLD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS OBSERVING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF A ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THIS IS NOT
NECESSARY THE CASE EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, AS TWO DEFINED
BANDS OF STRATUS ARE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST (FROM CENTRAL SD
TO WESTERN IA) AND TO OUR NORTH (ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN
WI). THE BAND OF STRATUS TO THE SOUTHWEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOISTURE PLUME TIED TO A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED AWAY FROM
OUR FORECAST AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND, STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN MN
IS TIED TO A VORT LOBE THAT IS PINWHEELING AROUND A DOMINANT
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER HUDSON BAY. THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE
OF THE INCOMING VORT LOBE TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD SUPPORT A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STRATUS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DECK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI. WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER FORECAST REFLECTED IN
THE GRIDS, ALL SYSTEMS ARE A GO FOR ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING BETWEEN -5 TO -15.
THE LARGER CIRCULATION OVER HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH THAT SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN THESE SCENARIO'S, IT'S
USUALLY WISE TO CONSIDER ADDING IN SOME MENTION OF FLURRIES GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE VORT MAX ALOFT WITHIN THE VERY COLD AIR MASS.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE CORE
OF THE UPPER FORCING SET TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, IT'S
NOT NECESSARILY A SURPRISE TO SEE FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRUGGLING
TO CAPTURE/ADVERTISE ANY FLURRY POTENTIAL. WE'VE OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM ADDING FLURRIES INTO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME, BUT
WILL REEVALUATE IN FORTHCOMING FORECAST CYCLES. OTHERWISE, THE
COLD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT FORM OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER, WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY MORNING, WHEN WIND CHILLS FALL TO -15 TO -20 ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI AND -25 OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL MN. WHILE
VERY COLD, THESE VALUES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE OUR CRITERIA FOR
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
CHANGES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PRODUCE THE
NOR'EASTER THAT IS GAINING INTEREST ACROSS MEDIA OUTLETS. LOCALLY,
THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGHING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERN
RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS ON
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING INTO THE MID 20S SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS THIS IS STILL A BIT TOO COLD TO CALL THIS
A "THAW" THOUGH I DO THINK HIGHS IN THE MID 20S WILL FEEL MUCH
BETTER THAN THE BITTER COLD OF LATE! THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A MORE ACTIVE CLIPPER TRACK INTO OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS SET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NBM'S POPS OF 40-50% ARE REASONABLE
GIVEN SOME TIMING AND COVERAGE DIFFERENCES (DRY AIR) ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT QPF AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH, WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS FALLING SHORT OF THAT MARK. SHOULD
BE A CLASSIC HIGHER POP/LOW QPF CLIPPER EVENT THAT WILL REQUIRE
NOTED INCREASES IN POPS OVER THE COMING DAYS. MOST LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH, BUT
WON'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SPOTS OBSERVING AN INCH OR TWO. ESSENTIALLY,
WE ANTICIPATE ENOUGH POWDER TO YIELD SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS SET
TO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVERALL WITH WEAK WINDS AT
OR BELOW 5KTS INITIALLY AT 320-340 SHIFTING TOWARDS 360-020 BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FEW250 FOR MOST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD, WITH SOME SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN WITHIN THE
FINAL 6 HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS. THERE MAY
BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WE SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH SCT015-025.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND W BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -SN. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...TDH
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