257
FXUS63 KMPX 111737
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S.
- RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
ONE LAST COLD MORNING THIS MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS
GIVEN US CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
THIS MORNING. THE COLD AIR MASS THAT WAS WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON WE WILL BE IN MORE OF A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THE LOW TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
PAST FORECASTS TRACKING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA/CANADA BORDER INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS KEEPS THE BEST FORCING GENERALLY IN
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, THUS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE THE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE RAIN TO
SATURATE THE AIR AND REACH THE SURFACE, SIMILAR TO SOME OF OUR
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PAST WEEK. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WE
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS, MAINLY OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA, WILL
PROVIDE FOR YET ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FEELS LIKE IT'S ON REPEAT RECENTLY.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S LIKELY. THIS WILL
UNFORTUNATELY ALSO COME WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR MORE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER. ALL TOGETHER A BAD WEEK FOR TRYING TO DO BURNING
OUTDOORS. THIS IS DUE TO CONSISTENT DRY AIR WITH AMPLE MIXING
PROVIDING FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY HOPE IS
THAT THE PATTERN DOES START TO LOOK MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL A WIDE
SPREAD WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE THE NBM. THE
THREE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC GDPS) HAVE THE
FORCING BEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE
NBM HAS THE HIGHEST POPS. IT IS WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF THOSE SAME MODEL SYSTEMS THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
DUE TO THE SPREAD. THERE ARE STILL MEMBERS THAT TAKE THIS IN A
DRY DIRECTION, SO THIS IS NOT JUST A TIMING DIFFERENCE. HOWEVER
24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS 50 TO 70 PERCENT SO
THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS GIVE US SOMETHING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR WITH -SHRA LIKELY OVER WI SITES LATE TONIGHT. THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINS CALM AND QUIET WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FEW TO SCT CIGS BECOME BKN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. 40-
45KT LLWS IS LIKELY ALONG WITH A PROB30 POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AT STC,
AND MSP BETWEEN 05 TO 10Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS OUR WI SITES
WHERE TEMPOS FOR SHRA EXIST BETWEEN 6 TO 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL SHIFT NW'LY AND REMAIN BREEZY FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30KTS.
KMSP...NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF. MAINTAINED MENTIONS
OF 40KT LLWS AND PROB30 -SHRA BETWEEN 6-10Z TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ~10-13Z,
WINDS WILL SHIFT NW'LY AND BECOME BREEZY AT 20KTS WITH GUSTS NEARING
30KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND S 10-20G30 KTS.
FRI...VFR, CHC -SHRA/-TSRA/MVFR. WIND S TO NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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