117  
FXUS63 KMPX 240549  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT.  
 
- HIGHS REBOUND TO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY.  
 
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TODAY WHICH IS  
HELPING KEEPING OUR SKIES CLEAR MAINLY FOR MUCH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN MN. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE MS  
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF TODAY THUS DIURNAL CU WILL REMAIN  
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI AS WE HEAD  
INTO THE EVENING. COME TONIGHT, ANY EXISTING CLOUD COVER IS  
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST SITES TO  
SINK BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO  
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S, EXCEPT FOR THOSE IN WESTERN MN AND  
THE CORE TC-METO HOLDING OFF INTO THE LOW 30S.  
 
THROUGH THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEEPENS WELL  
INTO MANITOBA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, A WAVE  
WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS,  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME  
SOUTHWESTERLY THUS INCREASING MOISTURE GIVEN PWAT VALUES  
REFLECTING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. IN PREVIOUS RUNS, THE NBM  
HAS RESULTED IN NOTABLY DRIER SOLUTIONS HOWEVER, NOW IT LOOKS TO  
FINALLY BE CATCHING UP BY ENCAPSULATING A BROADER REGION OF QPF  
ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR  
THOSE LUCKY AREAS, A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH  
COULD BE IN THE RAIN GAUGE BY SUNRISE. ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS TO  
THE SE, SKIES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON  
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR  
REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITHOUT THE EARLY MORNING POPS AND SLIGHTLY  
WARMER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TRACK  
"SOMEWHERE" ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH DETERMINING THE LOW'S TRACK. MEMBERS  
OF THE EPS CURRENTLY FAVOR MORE OF AN EASTERN ND/NW'RN MN TRACK  
WHEREAS THE GEFS FAVORS A SOUTHERN MN AND IA TRACK. AGREEMENT  
DOES HOWEVER EXIST WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH BEING A WEAKER  
SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ALL MEMBERS ONLY DEVIATING A MB OR TWO FROM  
1000MB. SHOULD THE GEFS TRACK BECOME THE FAVORED ROUTE IN FUTURE  
RUNS, THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE OUR QPF FOOTPRINT ESPECIALLY  
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN. NOW IN TERMS OF P-TYPE, LUCKILY  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS  
THIS SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. THEREFORE NO TRICKS OR TREATS ARE  
PLANNED IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL PRIOR TO HALLOWEEN. THE FORECAST  
QUIETS DOWN WEDNESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. TEMPERATURES WILL  
RANGE NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID-30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION WITH A MIXTURE  
OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE EARLY MORNING THROUGH  
DAYBREAK GROUND FOG AT THE WI TAF SITES. ANY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED  
TO BE SUSTAINED, MORE INTERMITTENT, SO HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS  
FOR IFR-OR-WORSE CONDITIONS THRU DAYBREAK. HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE  
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE DAY INTO TONIGHT, RESULTING IN HIGH  
CEILINGS OVER WESTERN MN PRIOR TO 12Z, AND THIS TREND WILL  
LIKELY CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO MORE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SET  
OF ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE  
THROUGHOUT, RUNNING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING TO  
AROUND 10KTS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
KMSP...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET WITH  
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO NEAR 10KTS FROM  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ONWARD. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING  
BUT CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE  
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.  
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY  
AVIATION...JPC  
 
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