234
FXUS63 KMPX 061058
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS TONIGHT.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING.
- AFTER A COOLER SUNDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN HELPING KEEP CERTAIN AREAS (WESTERN AND EASTERN
MN) INSULATED TONIGHT, BUT WHERE IT IS CLEAR TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED NICELY. LOWS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING LIKELY IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF
OUR FREEZE WARNING SHOULD WORK OUT. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY BE HARDER
OBTAIN, THOUGH, AS DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
TODAY'S WEATHER IS BASICALLY A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TUESDAY. WINDS
SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG THOUGH WITH GUSTS ONLY TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SUB-FREEZING NIGHT FOR CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHWEST WI AS LOWS FALL TO NEAR 30. FARTHER SOUTH, MID 30S ARE
MORE LIKELY. CAMS DO SHOW A CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES AS A COUPLE OF MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS AT RCX AND EAU THAT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE SHOWERS OCCUR WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST, A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WE
WARM UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EAST BY LATE
MORNING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AS OUR
CURRENT COOL AIRMASS MOVES EAST AND TEMPERATURES TREND SLOWLY UPWARD
INTO SATURDAY. DID LOWER DEWPOINTS A BIT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN, TO GET MINIMUM RHS INTO THE LOWER 20S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR COULD MEAN A RISK FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT WINDS WON'T BE STRONG AND VEGETATION IS
ALREADY QUITE GREEN.
FRIDAY LOOKS REALLY NICE AS HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 WHILE SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY. A DISCOMBOBULATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CURRENTLY HAVE POPS OF 20-
30% FOR THESE REGIONS. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AGAIN,
BUT A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE) WILL BRING US A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TO END THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS AFTER SUNDAY AS THE
STUBBORN TROUGHING THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT
LAKES MOVES EAST. ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE ITS PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE WARMER
AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS TO BE ADVECTED NORTH. WIDESPREAD
70S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AT LATEST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD CREEP BACK
INTO THE PICTURE DURING NEXT WEEK AS THE WARMER AIRMASS WILL
HAVE MORE MOISTURE. WHEN EXACTLY THESE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN
WILL OCCUR IS VERY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER. LONG-RANGE FORECAST
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WAVES ON THE
HORIZON. THEY DO SHOW A FEW WEAKER WAVES BUT WITH LARGE
VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATUS DECK FROM 4000-6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY COVERING ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS
MORNING. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR, DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FEET TO LAST
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT AND SLOWLY BREAK APART.
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SW TO NW AT 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-POLK-RUSK.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR PEPIN-PIERCE-
ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG
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