117
FXUS63 KMPX 240549
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- HIGHS REBOUND TO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TODAY WHICH IS
HELPING KEEPING OUR SKIES CLEAR MAINLY FOR MUCH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF TODAY THUS DIURNAL CU WILL REMAIN
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING. COME TONIGHT, ANY EXISTING CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST SITES TO
SINK BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S, EXCEPT FOR THOSE IN WESTERN MN AND
THE CORE TC-METO HOLDING OFF INTO THE LOW 30S.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEEPENS WELL
INTO MANITOBA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, A WAVE
WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THUS INCREASING MOISTURE GIVEN PWAT VALUES
REFLECTING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. IN PREVIOUS RUNS, THE NBM
HAS RESULTED IN NOTABLY DRIER SOLUTIONS HOWEVER, NOW IT LOOKS TO
FINALLY BE CATCHING UP BY ENCAPSULATING A BROADER REGION OF QPF
ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR
THOSE LUCKY AREAS, A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
COULD BE IN THE RAIN GAUGE BY SUNRISE. ONCE THE WAVE CLEARS TO
THE SE, SKIES ARE FORECASTED TO BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITHOUT THE EARLY MORNING POPS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TRACK
"SOMEWHERE" ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH DETERMINING THE LOW'S TRACK. MEMBERS
OF THE EPS CURRENTLY FAVOR MORE OF AN EASTERN ND/NW'RN MN TRACK
WHEREAS THE GEFS FAVORS A SOUTHERN MN AND IA TRACK. AGREEMENT
DOES HOWEVER EXIST WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH BEING A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ALL MEMBERS ONLY DEVIATING A MB OR TWO FROM
1000MB. SHOULD THE GEFS TRACK BECOME THE FAVORED ROUTE IN FUTURE
RUNS, THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE OUR QPF FOOTPRINT ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN. NOW IN TERMS OF P-TYPE, LUCKILY
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS
THIS SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. THEREFORE NO TRICKS OR TREATS ARE
PLANNED IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL PRIOR TO HALLOWEEN. THE FORECAST
QUIETS DOWN WEDNESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID-30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION WITH A MIXTURE
OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE EARLY MORNING THROUGH
DAYBREAK GROUND FOG AT THE WI TAF SITES. ANY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SUSTAINED, MORE INTERMITTENT, SO HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR IFR-OR-WORSE CONDITIONS THRU DAYBREAK. HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE DAY INTO TONIGHT, RESULTING IN HIGH
CEILINGS OVER WESTERN MN PRIOR TO 12Z, AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO MORE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SET
OF ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE
THROUGHOUT, RUNNING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING TO
AROUND 10KTS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
KMSP...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO NEAR 10KTS FROM
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ONWARD. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING
BUT CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...JPC
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