754
FXUS63 KMPX 101734
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST LIKELY THIS MORNING AND FROST AND SOME AREAS OF FREEZE
LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD POSSIBLE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE
FROST ADVISORY TO FALL INTO THE TEMPERATURE RANGE WHERE FROST
CAN FORM. THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO FROST FORMATION WILL BE THE LOW
DEW POINTS, GENERALLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE SOME
CLOUDS THIS MORNING SKIES WILL CLEAR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM CANADA. ALONG WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN. THANKFULLY THE MAY SUN IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO STILL WARM US INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TODAY.
TONIGHT THOUGH, ONCE THE SUN SETS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ONCE CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES, WE WILL
LOOK INTO WHAT KIND OF FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS CURRENT ROUND OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMES TO AN END ON MONDAY AND IT LOOKS TO STAY WARM
ENOUGH FOR PREVENT FROST FORMATION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ON
MONDAY ALL THE AREA WILL BE PAST THE MEDIAN DATE FOR THE LAST
SPRING FROST. THIS COMBINED WITH CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS AND
THE CPC ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A HIGH CHANCE
THAT THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FREEZE AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THE
FINAL FROST (WEST CENTRAL MN MIGHT STILL HAVE ONE COOLER MORNING
THAT COULD GET CLOSE).
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SUPPORT OF A JET
STREAK THERE WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
POSITIONING OF THIS LIFT THOUGH WILL KEEP THE FAVORED AREA FOR
RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35. THIS LOW ACTUALLY
REMINDS ME OF A WINTER ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACK. THIS CLIPPER LIKE
TRACK KEEPS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MORE ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND INTO WISCONSIN. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME INSTABILITY,
BUT NOT MUCH. SO WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN THEY ARE
LOW.
MORE OF A RIDGING PATTERN WITH THE JET STREAM FARTHER NORTH THAN
IT HAS BEEN DURING OUR MORE RECENT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN. TURNING TO
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK FOR HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES.
BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS MORE ACTIVE BUT EXACTLY WHEN RAIN WOULD
OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. AS WE GET CLOSER THE SPREAD SHOULD START TO
CONVERGE AND GIVE US A MUCH BETTER IDEA ON WHICH DAYS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED CUMULUS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO
20-25 KTS THROUGH SUNSET, THEN DROP BELOW 5 KTS, BECOMING
EASTERLY & THEN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY.
KMSP...A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN TIME FOR THE MORNING
PUSH BUT SPEEDS WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, CHANCE -SHRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND SW TO NW 15-20G35KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND S 10-15G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA
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