570
FXUS63 KMPX 202246
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UFFDA, WHAT A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON! TEMPERATURES RANGING MOSTLY IN
THE 60S ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER 70S ARE BEING REPORTED FOR SITES
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESSENTIALLY
CLOUD-FREE WITH FORECAST HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FEW GUSTS NEARING 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG MAINLY FOR
WESTERN MN. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING, WHILE A TROUGHING PATTERN MOVES IN
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT. AS OF NOW, THE TROUGHING
AXIS IS WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH TO SERVE AS ANY CONCERN FOR
PRECIP CHANCES. AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, SUBSIDENCE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER NOT AS PREVALENT AS TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT.
THEREFORE, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN COULD SEE SOME CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AS A RESULT. AREAS SOUTH CAN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN HAD TO NUDGE MAXTS UP USING NBM90TH
PERCENTILE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WARMER AND RUN PRACTICALLY 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASON CLIMATOLOGY. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND A FEW ISOLATED SITES NEARING 80 DEGREES NEAR
THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
A PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INLAND FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS THEN
CARRIED NORTHWARD BY THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
US. THE LOW BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED BY THE TIME ITS CARRIED
OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER AND CONVERGES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE TOO
FAR DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGEST FORCING BY THE TIME IT NEARS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE REGION IS THEN LEFT WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
FELT THE NBM REPRESENTS POPS WELL WITH PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
MN SEEING 40 POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE
INCREASED, QPF IS ON THE LOWER END WITH ABOUT A TENTH OR TWO OF
AN INCH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW
CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF PATCH FOG
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO FROM 11-14Z AT STC FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND SCATTERED CIGS NEAR 400 FEET. FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT WILL SLOW AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...STILL EXPECTING A FEW CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FEET TO DEVELOP
AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...CTG
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