844
FXUS63 KMPX 112340
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND BLOWING
SNOW COULD RESULT IN WINTER STORM CONDITIONS FOR AREAS THAT
SEE SNOW.
- VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.
- HEAVY SNOW LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW WILL FALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
ALTHOUGH IT IS RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A
SLIGHT BREEZE, THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
TURN MUCH MORE ACTIVE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AS IT DEEPENS
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD
EXTEND INTO MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY MORNING, AND
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY THE EVENING.
ONE OF THE TRICKY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHERE
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SET UP, WHICH LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. A NUMBER OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS GENERALLY HAVE THAT LOW PROGRESSING FROM EAST- CENTRAL
NODAK TOWARDS NORTHWEST WI. A COUPLE THINGS THAT CATCH OUR EYE
ARE 1) THE HI-RES CAMS FAVOR THIS TRACK OF THE LOW, AND WE HAVE
TENDED TO SEE THEM JOG AS FAR SOUTH AS 50-100 MILES WITHIN THE
24 HOUR WINDOW OF THE EVENT, AND 2) THE ECMWF AIFS DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE SOLIDLY FAVORED A SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WHICH TAKES THE LOW ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE LOW MAY SEE SNOW TO START OFF, BUT WILL LARGELY
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW, EVERYWHERE WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW. STRONG LIFT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE VERY HEAVY AT
TIMES, PRODUCING 1- 2"/HR UNDER THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW.
HREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT 70 TO 80 PERCENT FOR EXCEEDING 1"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THE MAIN BAND AS WELL. GIVEN THAT THE LOW
DROPS NEAR 980MB AND IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION, WE WOULD SAY THAT THOSE PROBABILITIES COULD LIKELY BE
EVEN HIGHER.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS 70-80 MPH WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE DAKOTAS AND THOSE STRONG WINDS DAMPEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY
PROGRESS INTO MN. AS WINDS MIX DOWN, GUSTS COULD VERY LIKELY
EXCEED 60 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN. AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN LEVERAGED TO COVER THIS
THREAT. SOME AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH, INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES METRO, MAY END UP BEING A HIGH- END WIND
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW TRACKS.
GIVEN HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE, AND HOW INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
COULD REACH, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. THESE
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE LINE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES. AGAIN, IT REALLY DEPENDS ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW, AND WE ARE USING THESE COUNTIES AS A BUFFER IF
THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION PANS OUT. THERE WILL BE WINTER STORM
IMPACTS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL, AND WE WANTED TO GET THE
MESSAGE OUT FOR THAT POTENTIAL. AT THE SAME TIME, THESE COUNTIES
MAY ONLY HAVE BRIEF SNOWFALL AND LIGHTER ACCUMULATION. WE
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
IF THAT ISN'T ENOUGH FUN, WE HAVE POTENTIALLY OUR BIGGEST
SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON ON DECK FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
SNOWFALL WRAPS UP ON FRIDAY, WE'LL HAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE
OUR NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
SETUP WILL BE DIFFERENT, WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF COLORADO
AND PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WE WILL BE SOLIDLY
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS BEING SNOW. AND SPEAKING OF SNOW, WE COULD SEE A LOT OF
IT... QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH UNDER THE HEAVIEST FOOTPRINT,
WITH SNOW RATIOS IN THAT 12-15:1 RANGE. WHAT WE SEE ACROSS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IS A BROAD REGION OF AT
LEAST 4 INCHES, AND A NARROW BAND OF 8-12 INCHES. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THAT MAIN BAND WILL SET UP, THOUGH IT IS
MOST LIKELY TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN IOWA. WE ARE FAVORING
TO KEEP THAT REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE UNTIL WE BETTER
RESOLVE THE PROGRESSION OF OUR THU/FRI SYSTEM. WE WILL START TO
GET IN THE RANGE OF ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH TOMORROW.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS). NO OTHER LARGE SYSTEMS ARE ON THE
HORIZON, AT LEAST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHILE OUR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THESE ARE VERY SPOTTY
IN NATURE AND DON'T SEEM TO BE LASTING FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR, SO
HAVE INCLUDED SOME VCSH MENTIONS FOR A FEW TERMINALS BUT KEPT
THINGS VFR. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND RAMP UP QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL ALSO BE ON THE WAY
DOWN, BUT OVERALL THINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. PRECIP CHANCES
ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL, SO HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE
PROB30S FOR KRWF/KMKT/KMSP AND WENT WITH SOME PREVAILING MVFR
VIS WITH -RASN FOR THE REMAINING SITES.
KMSP...SEEING A FEW UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW OR UP, BUT
HAVE LEFT ANY VCSH OUT. STILL, A QUICK MOVING SNOW SHOWER ISN'T
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET AND VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WINDS START
INCREASING ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ARRIVES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AFTER
SUNSET, WINDS REALLY RAMP UP WITH GUSTS OF 40KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A LLWS MENTION DUE TO THE 50-60KT 850MB JET OUT OF
THE WEST. EXPECTING THAT THE NEXT REGULAR TAF ISSUANCE WILL HAVE
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, CHC MVFR EARLY. WIND NW 15-25G35KTS.
SAT...MVFR CHC IFR LATE W/-SN. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, IFR POSSIBLE. WIND NE 15G25KTS BCMG NW.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
LE SUEUR-MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEELE-
WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...DYE
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