813  
FXUS63 KMPX 191735  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW..  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, SHOWERS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN  
MN INTO WESTERN WI IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING  
THROUGH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH  
MOST OF IT COMING TO AN END PRIOR TO 9AM.  
 
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO  
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA  
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ALEXANDRIA  
AND ST. CLOUD AREAS LATE THIS MORNING, THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH  
MANKATO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25  
MPH POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IMMEDIATELY AFTER  
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY 20-25 MPH WITH  
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.  
 
THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO DROP  
NEARLY DUE SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA, ADVANCING INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT.  
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT, LAPSE RATES  
WILL STEEPEN ALOFT AND A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET STREAK WILL  
SUPPORT LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANTICIPATING  
THIS TO BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
THE WAVE SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY SATURDAY, WITH  
CLEARING OCCURRING BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE  
SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL  
ESTABLISH ITSELF SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
MUCH LIKE THE SET UP FROM THURSDAY, MODELS ARE MUCH TOO COLD WITH  
HIGHS SUNDAY. 925 MB TEMPS OF +7 TO +11C WILL BRING READINGS BACK  
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MN AND 50S IN WI. INCREASED HIGHS 5 TO 10  
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.  
 
THE FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR MONDAY BUT IT  
SHOULD STILL BE A MILD DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH  
MONDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. THUS, EVEN COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO MIDWEEK  
BEFORE RETURN FLOW RESUMES LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXITING TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. THEN VFR TREND  
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA  
WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS BECOMING  
MORE WEST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES  
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL DRIVE AT LEAST A BAND OF -SHRA  
SOUTHEAST CHANGING TO -SHSN MAINLY TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE SOME, BUT  
STILL BELIEVE DECENT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN AFFECTING KRNH/KEAU.  
WILL MENTION PROB30 OVER THE EASTERN AREA FOR NOW. MAY SEE MVFR  
CIGS DEVELOP TO THE EAST AS WELL WITH STRONG CAA PATTERN. STILL  
SEE STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE LATER FROPA WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS  
LIKELY.  
 
KMSP...FROPA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO  
30-35KTS, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND THEN SECONDARY COLD FRONT  
ARRIVES 08Z-09Z WITH -SHRASN POSSIBLE. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
MVFR CIGS WITH FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NW  
WINDS DEVELOPING WITH FROPA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WIND BECOMING S-SW 3-8KT IN THE EVENING.  
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 15G25KT.  
MON...VFR. WIND SW BECOMING NW 10G20KT.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SPD  
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF  
AVIATION...DWE  
 
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