427  
FXUS63 KMPX 230530  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1230 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- COOL THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED  
EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CORE OF THE TWIN CITIES  
METRO.  
 
- HIGHS REBOUND TO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
- DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE  
ACTIVE PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
IN. BEFORE THIS LOW IS FULLY PUSHED OUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO  
ERODE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THESE  
CLOUD, THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT  
RAIN/SPRINKLES IN PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THESE  
CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT AS THE AFORE MENTIONED HIGHER  
PRESSURE MOVES IN. COOL AIR ALSO ADVECTS IN WITH THIS ADVANCING  
HIGH PRESSURE AND WHERE THIS COOL AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVERLAP  
WILL GET BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW THE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH A COOL AND SUNNY DAY FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR  
AND COLD NIGHT. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CORE  
OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONE OR  
BOTH OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TONIGHT  
AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE COOL AIR SHIFTING EAST FROM  
MAINLY MINNESOTA TONIGHT TO HAVING THE COLDEST AIR MORE OVER  
WISCONSIN TOMORROW NIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BY FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE  
OFF THE TO THE EAST RETURNING FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND BRINGING  
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING  
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS BREAKING INTO THE LOWER TO MID  
60S. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SUNDAY NIGHT AS GLOBAL  
DETERMINISTIC MODELS START TO MOVE TROUGHING IN FROM THE WEST.  
 
NEXT WEEK... TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER WESTERN  
CANADA WILL BE THE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER IMPACTS TO START THE  
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS, BUT HOW DEEP THE TROUGHING GETS INTO THE US VARIES.  
THIS VARIABILITY IS EVEN MORE APPARENT WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE  
SYSTEMS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IT HAS  
BEEN SHIFTING TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF  
PRECIPITATION, THE VARIABILITY REMAINS THOUGH IN QPF AND  
TIMING. THIS HAS KEPT NBM POP VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 50  
RANGE ACROSS A LARGE TIME RANGE TO START THE WEEK. SO THE CHANCE  
FOR RAIN TO OCCUR IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS HIGHER  
THAN THE POPS SHOW, BUT WITH THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON WHEN THIS  
WILL OCCUR THE POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS WE GET CLOSER  
AND ENSEMBLE START TO CLUSTER MORE THIS POP WILL BE INCREASED  
ACROSS A SHORTER TEMPORAL SCALE TO GIVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHEN  
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WE WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR  
THIS TO BE RAIN, WITH THE FIRST SNOW UNLIKELY TO FALL THIS MONTH  
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE  
BACK IN FOR THE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME MODEL TO MODEL  
VARIABILITY ON WHEN THIS MOVES IN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
MID LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES ACROSS MN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOWER  
CLOUDS ACROSS WI COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO EAU  
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE REGION, MOSTLY AROUND 3KFT, WHICH COULD BRING MORE MVFR CIGS  
TO AREAS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE, MOST LIKELY IN WI.  
 
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.  
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.  
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 10-20 KTS.  
 
 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...NDC  
AVIATION...BORGHOFF  
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