959
FXUS63 KMPX 151738
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S/50S.
- LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A LARGE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW, BUT CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THIS
SNOW FALLING IN NORTHERN MN.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THEN TO MAKE THE
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE STRUGGLING TO JUST DROP DOWN TO
OUR NORMAL HIGHS. EARLY IN THE NIGHT, WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION RESULTED IN A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MOVED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND WI. HOWEVER, AS THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED, WE'VE
SEEN FOG EXPAND OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD CENTRAL MN. WE'LL
WATCH VISIBILITY TRENDS THIS MORNING, THOUGH THE CONSSHORT AND
NBM VISIBILITIES WOULD SAY WE MAY VERY WELL NEED A FOG ADVISORY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR DOWN TO ST. CLOUD THIS
MORNING. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE'LL PRETTY MUCH GET A REPEAT
OF SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE FROM WHAT GAVE US
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S YESTERDAY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THOUGH,
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE, MAINLY BECAUSE
THOSE STEP UP FROM THE AROUND 50 WE HAD FOR RECORDS YESTERDAY,
TO CLOSER TO 60 TODAY. TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS DRY, THOUGH WE COULD SEE A BRIEF WAA
FORCED SHOWER AROUND THE LADYSMITH AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
MAIN IMPACT THIS FRONT WILL HAVE FOR US IS TO KNOCK A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH
HIGHS MONDAY WILL STILL BE RUNNING 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER, CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR A NORTHERN SOLUTION, WITH SURFACE TO H5 HOW COMING OUT OF
NODAK AND GOING ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS TRACK PUTS AREAS CLOSER TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER IN LINE TO SEE A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF AS PWATS OF
300% OF NORMAL FEED INTO THE STRONG DEFORMATION BAND EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS NORTHERN TREND, IT
MEANS WE SEE THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT, WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, WE STAY
WARM WITH THIS LOW TRACK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S STILL SHOWING UP IN
SOUTHERN MN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PART OF THE FORECAST
THOUGH ARE LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS LOWS
FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MN IN THE
LOWER 40S, OR ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE HIGH. IT
JUST GOES TO SHOW HOW ANOMALOUS THIS SYSTEM IS FOR MID-FEBRUARY (IT
REALLY BELONGS IN THE SECOND HALF OF MARCH...).
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH A STRONG JET COMING OUT OF WESTERN US/MEXICO
BORDER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAVE US SUSCEPTIBLE TO
SEEING ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES. FROM THE EPS, IT'S THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ARE THE TWO PERIODS
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES ARE
RATHER DISPERSE ON WHEN/WHERE ADDITIONAL WAVES KICK OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT AT THE
VERY LEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER BY THEN SO THAT IF WE DO SEE
PRECIPITATION, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FALLING AS SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
MORNING FOG HAS ERODED ACROSS CENTRAL MN, WHICH ALLOWS THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD TO OPEN ON A QUIET NOTE. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WSW THIS AFTERNOON TO OUT OF
THE SSE THIS EVENING. A MARGINAL LLWS SCENARIO WILL SETUP LATER
THIS EVENING, HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF WIND SHEAR APPEARS TOO
WEAK FOR MENTION IN THE 18Z'S. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE WAVE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE FLOW TO LIMIT ANOTHER NIGHT
OF DENSE FOG. OPTED TO FOLLOW LAMP GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE MENTION
OF MVFR VISIBILITY TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT AXN/STC, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE A MORE DEGRADED VISIBILITY SCENARIO.
VFR MONDAY, WITH WNW WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS. LLWS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-7Z,
HOWEVER THE SETUP APPEARS MARGINAL SO NO MENTION WAS MADE IN THE
18Z TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA LATE. WIND E 10-15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RASN. WIND E BCMG NW 10-20KTS.
THU...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY 15TH THROUGH 18TH CAN BE
FOUND IN THE TABLE BELOW. PERIOD OF RECORDS BEGAN: MSP (1872),
STC (1894), EAU (1893).
SUN MON TUE WED
2/15 2/16 2/17 2/18
MSP 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017) 58 (2017)
STC 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017) 57 (2017)
EAU 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981) 59 (1981)
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...STRUS
CLIMATE...MPG
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