130  
FXUS63 KMPX 220911  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
311 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ANOTHER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY, BEFORE A  
COOLER NEAR NORMAL DAY TOMORROW.  
 
- MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO  
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
- THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH A  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
TODAY AND TOMORROW... TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE 40S. WITH NO SNOW OR TRACE  
DEPTH LEFT IT DOES NOT TAKE STRONG WAA, JUST AMPLE SUN TO REACH  
TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 50. AS THE GROUND WARMS TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER. FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT  
STORY, AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
THIS WILL BRING COOLER, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.  
WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AS THIS FRONT PASSES, BUT  
WITH WEAK FORCING AND QUESTIONABLE SATURATION ALOFT NOT MUCH IS  
EXPECTED.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAA ON  
FRIDAY 850 MB FLOW RETURNS TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY TO  
RESTORE WAA. THIS WARMER AIR COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF SNOW ON  
THE GROUND WILL RETURN US TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
MONDAY WILL SEE MUCH STRONGER WAA WITH SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS  
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 12 DEGREES CELSIUS. WITH THIS  
WE COULD SEE OF WARMEST DAY OF 2024 WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF  
BREAKING 60 ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. FOR  
THE TWIN CITIES IT SHOULD AT LEAST GET CLOSE, AS THE CURRENT  
NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS FOR 57 AND THE 50TH PERCENTILE IS  
61. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL  
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TUESDAY'S  
TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE  
ARRIVAL OF THIS COOLER AIR. FOR EXAMPLE THE 25TH TO 75TH HIGH  
TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES AT MSP RANGE FROM 43 TO 62. IF THE COOL  
AIR ARRIVES ON THE EARLIER SIDE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WE WILL BE  
ON THE COOLER END AND IF IT TRENDS TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF  
GUIDANCE THAN WE COULD SEE BACK TO BACK DAYS IN THE 60S. WITH  
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS PRONOUNCED AND AMPLE FORCING ALOFT  
THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE QUESTION  
REMAINS WHERE? OVERALL MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LIKE THE GEFS,  
ENS, AND GEPS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IN OTHER  
REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THERE REMAINS A FEW OUTLIERS THAT HIT US  
HARD, BUT IT IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME BASED ON THE  
CURRENT SPREAD. KEPT NBM POP OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT DUE TO THE  
CURRENT SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST WED FEB 21 2024  
 
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW  
LOWER CU COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY, THEN INCREASE WITH  
GUSTS 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.  
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.  
SUN...VFR. WIND W 10-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...NDC  
AVIATION...BORGHOFF  
 
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