280  
FXUS63 KMPX 242345  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR  
RETURNING TONIGHT.  
 
- THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND,  
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS  
SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
 
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON, SPARKING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAU CLAIRE TO  
LADYSMITH. COLDER AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO WESTERN MN,  
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING STRATOCU. THE GUSTY  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING, AND THEN AS THE LOW  
CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, WINDS WILL EASE  
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE.  
 
HOT ON THE HEELS OF TODAY'S SYSTEM, THE NEXT ONE TO WATCH WILL  
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT  
WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN IN THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW SHOWERS  
MAY FORM ALONG IT. THE COMPACT LOW WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST TO IA  
SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN  
SOMEWHAT CONFINED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THUS, RAIN TOTALS AND  
POPS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF  
FOR SUNDAY. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS  
SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD  
AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. AT MSP, FOR EXAMPLE, QPF SPREAD  
RANGES FROM ZERO TO 2.5 INCHES ON THE GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM  
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. THE LIGHTER TOTALS ARE CARRYING THE MOST  
WEIGHT IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, BUT IT ILLUSTRATES THE SENSITIVITY  
AT HOUR 48 OF THE LOW TRACK.  
 
THAT SYSTEM HEADS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD  
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE  
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL TO BELOW NORMAL  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TO THE EASTERN U.S. MID  
TO LATE WEEK AND ALLOW SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO MODERATE  
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
MAY BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,  
BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR THIS FAR  
EAST WITH FLOW FROM THE GULF BEING CUT OFF.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
 
EXTENSIVE DIURNAL STRATOCU FIELD OUT THERE THIS EARLY EVENING  
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE WIND GUSTS FOLLOWING  
SUITE A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. WE'LL START OFF SATURDAY WITH  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE  
THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MN.  
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY BELOW 10K FEET AND IT LOOKS LIKE  
OVERRUNNING TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WON'T START PRODUCING  
-RA UNTIL IT'S NEAR AN AXN/BRD LINE AFTER 21Z SAT, SO FOR ALL BY  
AXN AND MAYBE STC, SATURDAY LOOKS DRY. WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL  
SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT WEST TO A MORE SSW BY THE  
END OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTINESS SHOWING UP AGAIN  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.  
 
KMSP...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER SATURDAY BETWEEN 21Z  
AND 23Z, THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 10K FEET, KEPT THE TAF  
DRY.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SUN...VFR. CHANCE -SHRA/MVFR. WIND E TO NE 10 KTS.  
MON...VFR. CHANCE -SHRA/MVFR. WIND WNW 10-15G25 KTS.  
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF  
AVIATION...MPG  
 
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