967  
FXUS63 KMPX 180523  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1223 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- TONIGHT, COLD TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST IN CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN MINNESOTA.  
 
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST  
CHANCES ALONG I-90, LOWEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-94. SEVERE  
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
 
TONIGHT...A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS WITHIN CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW  
CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION, THIS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK  
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S.  
OVERNIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO  
CLEARING SKIES FORM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS.  
AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO  
THE LOW 30S, SO DID EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE  
COUNTIES.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON ON SUNDAY,  
WITH LESS CLOUDS AND WIND THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN  
THE LOW 60S. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT FROM  
THE DESERT SOUTHEAST AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHERE  
IT WILL FUJIWARA WITH ANOTHER WAVE CRAWLING DOWN THE WESTERN  
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST WAVE WILL LEAD TO SURFACE  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NEBRASKA, AND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED  
THROUGH OUR REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LEADING  
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH,  
AND THIS WILL HAVE THE SAME EFFECT ON THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, ONLY  
THIS TIME THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FARTHER NORTH,  
BRINING RAIN ACROSS IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN  
WI. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD  
WILL MAKE IT, WITH THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE CURRENTLY BEING  
A GOOD PROXY FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE. ONE THING THAT'S FOR SURE  
IS INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT, WHICH MEANS A VERY  
LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE  
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. FOLKS THAT DO GET UNDER THE HEAVIER  
BAND OF RAIN COULD PICK UP OVER AN INCH, BUT IT WILL BE FALLING  
RATHER STEADY IN STRATIFORM STATE, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO  
THREATS AS WELL.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY, AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, MORE  
SUNSHINE, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025  
 
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS MORNING AND LOOKS TO REMAIN  
AS SUCH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR  
IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING  
SKIES AND RISING CIGS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM 320-350 TO  
060-090 REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10KTS.  
 
KMSP...ADDED IN AN TEMPO FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AS WE LIKELY  
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS AND SATELLITE  
IMAGERY.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
TUE...MVFR/SHRA LIKELY, CHC -TSRA/IFR. WIND NE 15-20G30KTS.  
WED...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.  
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-BROWN-  
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-  
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-  
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-  
TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.  
WI...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JRB  
AVIATION...TDH  
 
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