188
FXUS63 KMPX 030520
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TO NEAR 60 POSSIBLE.
- DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WITH A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
- BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOME
SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
STRATUS IS LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS REACHED ROUGHLY
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. SOME BREAKS REMAIN WITHIN THE LOWER STRATUS
DECK, BUT A MID LEVEL DECK OVER SD WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR AND OCCASIONAL SURFACE OBS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, SO CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME OF IT FREEZING ON CONTACT. AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT,
HOWEVER. IN ADDITION, WITH THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE ARE NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS A FEW SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST BY DAWN TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
WARM FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY, TO SOLIDLY 50S AND A
FEW LOW 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, SO TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
LLJ/DEEPER MOISTURE REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT MAY COME IN TWO ROUNDS.
THE FIRST SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE 35-45 KT LLJ. THE SECOND MAY COME
WITH THE MAIN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE/LOW PRESSURE CENTER FRIDAY
NIGHT. OVER JUST THE LAST DAY, MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO REDUCE THEIR
SPREAD SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE LOW TRACK. BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, MODEL ENSEMBLES, DETERMINISTIC, AND AI GUIDANCE TRACK
THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN A TREND TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION POST-FRONTAL ACROSS
EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHERN WI, WHERE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ARE ZERO. THIS IMPLIES A TRANSITION TO ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN
A DEFORMATION BAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. THIS TREND HAS STARTED
ONLY RECENTLY, BUT IF IT HOLDS WE'LL START INTRODUCING MORE
SNOW INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TOO EARLY TO
SPECIFY AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE, BUT SEVERAL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE SITUATIONS AND IT MAY BE THE MAIN STORY LATER
IN THE WEEK.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MILD
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AGAIN
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WITH A STRONGER PUNCH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT ONE STILL EXHIBITS A LOT OF SPREAD, BUT WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH
OF ALL TAF SITES. MKT COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE FIRST FEW
HOURS, BUT THAT DOESN'T SEEM THE MOST LIKELY SETUP SO OPTED TO
LEAVE THE PROB30. DESPITE THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION, THERE HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL LIFT LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THIS PERIOD.
KMSP... ONLY AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT. LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE A RETURN TO
VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR -RA. WIND SE 5-10KTS, BCMG NE LATE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...NDC
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