092
FXUS63 KMPX 122013 CCA
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AVOID BURNING
IN THESE AREAS.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PROMPTING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN, REDUCING VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS 1/2 MILE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
TODAY'S A CLASSIC CASE OF "IT WOULD'VE BEEN NICE IF IT WASN'T
FOR THE WIND." NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9PM. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD SPREAD QUICKLY
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. A
NUMBER OF AWOS OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO REPORTING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE DUE TO BLOWING DUST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MN, PROMPTING A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
THROUGH 5PM.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A REALLY NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
AND A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY, THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. PWATS OVER AN INCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERCOME THE LAYER OF
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, THOUGH RH VALUES IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET FROM THIS SYSTEM.
STRONG W/NW WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MAX GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH. THE NBM IS ALSO
SHOWING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ALREADY,
MEANING IT IS LIKELY ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED TO END THE WEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY, WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NBM HAS POPS OF
50 TO 75 PERCENT, PEAKING DURING SUNDAY EVENING AND WPC QPF IS
AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH. THERE IS STILL NOTABLE SPREAD WHEN LOOKING
AT ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, WITH SOME MEMBERS ONLY SHOWING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO OTHERS SHOWING OVER 1.5".
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN THIS PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. GUSTS
WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER SUNSET, AND FULLY DIMINISH BY
ABOUT 06-08Z. A DECK OF LOW LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN AROUND 2500-5000
FT. MOST SITES WILL SEE THE LOW END VFR CIGS, THOUGH SOME MVFR
WILL LINGER NEAR AXN TO START THE PERIOD. AS THESE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.
KMSP...ADJUSTED CEILINGS LOWER TO AROUND 4-5 KFT BASED ON
CURRENT CU DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ONGOING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02-04Z AT AROUND 300-330 DEGREES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15G30KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15-20G30KTS.
SAT...VFR, CHC -SHRA. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-
STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED
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