470
FXUS63 KMPX 070401
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK FRONT
THEREST OF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER WEAK FRONT COMES IN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
SCATTEREDSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LOOKING AHEAD, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY ANDMONDAY,
BUT HEAT LOOKS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN NEXT WEEK.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY…EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SURFACE
OBS AND RAP13 ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS AND SMOKE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WHICH LED TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
SURFACE WINDS, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN, AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE MINNESOTA/DAKOTA BORDER. THERE WAS LITTLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, AND AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINED
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT. THERE WAS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN
DRY GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. ON
WEDNESDAY THE MLCAPE BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA,
WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH
PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, BUT OVERALL THIS IS A RELATIVELY
LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…ON THURSDAY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT
WEST, SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION, SO EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
TEMPORARILY, BUT LOOK TO REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
THE MAIN TAF QUESTION WAS WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES, AS CAMS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM ROUGHLY 09 TO 15Z. KEPT A
MENTION IN WITH A TEMPO FOR AXN/RWF, BUT KEPT THE OTHER SITES DRY FOR
NOW. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE CONTINUE WITH CLOUD COVER BUILDING
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS, SCATTERING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY NEED
TO BE SOME SHORT TERM AMDS FOR THE -TSRA OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE VFR TAF.
KMSP...NO MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS ROUND ONCE AGAIN, AS ACTIVITY
APPEARS FOCUSED TO THE WEST. VFR FOR THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC AM -SHRA. WIND N 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...TDH
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