713
FXUS63 KMPX 182346
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
646 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A FEW COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM FAR-SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE OVERALL RISK HAS DECREASED.
- SEASONABLY COOL & DRY MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN AT THE
START OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
ALL IS QUIET TO START THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITS
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE TWIN CITIES. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG SPREAD OUT ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE LOW,
LIMITING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT IS ESSENTIALLY DRAPED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE
TWIN CITIES, WHILE THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE TWIN
CITIES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-94. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND SPREAD
NORTH INTO MN AND WI THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE AROUND 8PM TO 12AM. THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDER, AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM, WILL BE IN THAT WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT (I.E. EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-94). OVERALL THE THREAT HAS DECREASED DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY (NOTED BY THE 1630Z UPDATE TO THE SPC DAY 1 SWO).
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ANYWHERE THAT THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.
LIGHT RAIN WILL WRAP UP TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES EAST. AT THE SURFACE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AND STRONG CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN, THOUGH SATURATION WILL BE VERY LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
US WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN, THOUGH ENSEMBLE QPF IS MOSTLY
AROUND A FEW TENTHS AND IN THE RANGE OF A NORMAL RAIN EVENT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN OTHER WORDS, MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL
HAVE OCCASIONAL RAIN, BUT NOTHING TO CHANGE PLANS OVER AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY RISING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, PEAKING ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
LOW STRATUS, MVFR-TO-IFR, EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS IFR, PARTICULARLY IF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CROSS OVER ANY GIVEN SITE. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END OVERNIGHT TO JUST BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GRADUAL RISE IN CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS DURING THIS EVENING, INCREASING TO NEAR 15G25KTS
LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
KMSP... RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING NE FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI. MVFR TO IFE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE, WITH VISIBILITIES
POTENTIALLY INTO IFR RANGE SHOULD HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MOVE ACROSS
MSP. AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT, IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE BUT NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15G25KTS. CIGS
RETURN TO MVFR MID-MORNING AND NEARING VFR BY END OF TAF TUESDAY
EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 KTS, SHIFTING TO SE.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH
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