784
FXUS63 KMPX 111226
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS RISING FROM THE 30S/40S THROUGH THURSDAY TO
THE 40S/50S FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SATURDAY'S WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE MSP, STC, AND EAU
ALL APPROACHING 90+ YEAR OLD RECORDS.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM WESTERN
CANADA. OTHER THAN PROVIDING SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN, THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY
IMPACTS ACROSS THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA TODAY. ALOFT, A FAIRLY
UN-AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST PATTERN IS ATOP THE LOWER 48
STATES THIS MORNING, WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW ATOP THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
THE FRONT OUT WEST OF OUR COVERAGE AREA WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPETUS
TO PUSH EASTWARD TODAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH AS WEAK AS IT IS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS PLUS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PROVIDE
DIVERGENCE FOR PRECIPITATION, ITS ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS PLUS EFFECTIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINING
TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH ON THE COOL SIDE
(EXCEPT FOR SW MN) BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COVERAGE
AREA, WHILE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS REACH THE 40S (AND
POSSIBLY TOUCH 50 IN LAC QUI PARLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTIES).
THE CONTINUAL DRYING OUT TREND IN THE MODELS IS AGAIN EVIDENT IN
THIS MODEL RUN, SO MUCH SO THAT POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NOW BEING SHUNTED
FAR SOUTH ENOUGH WHERE IT IS NO LONGER OF CONCERN FOR MN/WI.
THIS IN TURN THEN MEANS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY, WITH MOST AREAS REACHING HIGHS IN THE 40S, THOUGH
SOME SPOTS NORTH OF I-94 HOLDING IN THE 30S WHILE A LARGER AREA
(NOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER) EXPECTED TO NUDGE
INTO THE LOWER 50S.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING THINKING
WITH THE MODELS STILL ADVERTISING DRY AND "WARM" CONDITIONS
FOR MID-FEBRUARY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO AND SETTLING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND REINFORCING RIDGING OUT WEST SHIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR AN APPRECIABLE SURGE
OF WARM AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SOME
20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 50S
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE TWIN CITIES
ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE
MID 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S!
THE ONLY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION NOW COMES NEXT WEEK TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
WARMTH AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE TO BRING STRONG
COOLING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MORNING MVFR FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN
MN ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
SLIGHT FARTHER S AND E BUT REMAIN OUT OF E-CENTRAL THROUGH SE MN
AND WESTERN WI FOR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
WILL GET A BIT MORE IMPETUS TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, MAKING A MIX OF BKN/OVC COVERAGE AROUND 060. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
WILL BECOME SE AT AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI-SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5 KTS BECOMING S LATE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page