723
FXUS63 KMPX 160458
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1058 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY & VERY MILD TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S/50S (NEAR-RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH).
- WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR OUR AREA,
THAT GENERALLY MEANS RAIN SOUTH, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR A
WINTRY MIX/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
QUIET BUT ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WE’LL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON VISIBILITY TRENDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE, AS PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
MID-DAY TUESDAY WITH WELL-ABOVEN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
THE MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK,
WHICH KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING A BAND OF
HEAVY, WET SNOW) MAINLY IN NORTHERN & NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
WHILE OUR LOCAL AREA DEALS MORE WITH RAIN & A SHARP NORTH- TO-
SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM LIKELY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TUESDAY
EVENING, ALONG AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE VERY WARM IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, & MODELS
INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE ARE LIKELY, SO A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A DRY SLOT IS LIKELY TO WORK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN, IF NOT OUR ENTIRE
AREA, RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING CLOSER
TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN & NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY COOLING ENOUGH FOR
PREDOMINATELY SNOW TO FALL WHERE THIS PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THE
QUESTION STILL REMAINING IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
PRECIPITATION FALLS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF AI &
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR THE SNOW WEDNESDAY SETS UP JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA & NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL,
SOME SNOW LIKELY LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR-SOUTHERN CWA
WHICH COULD GET CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND,
MAINLY NORTH OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO PINE CITY LINE WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOME LIGHTER SNOW SOUTH OF THIS REGION, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE TWIN CITIES METRO & I-94 CORRIDOR, BUT WE'D LIKELY ONLY
BE LOOKING A T A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK (THU-SAT) WITH
HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S THEN 20S, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
A SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE TRACK OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-WEEK SYSTEM, & GENERATING A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA &
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKELY FOR SNOW TO FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" LOOKING MOST LIKELY AS OF
NOW. MUCH COOLER, BUT STILL SEASONAL, TEMPERATURES PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S & LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE, WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG AT
AXN. IF FOG DOES FORM IT WILL BE MVFR AT WORST. WINDS WILL BE
GREATER ABOVE THE SURFACE THAN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL LEAD TO LLWS TO START THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA LATE. WIND E 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RASN. WIND E BCMG W 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY 15TH THROUGH 18TH CAN BE
FOUND IN THE TABLE BELOW. PERIOD OF RECORDS BEGAN: MSP (1872),
STC (1894), EAU (1893).
SUN MON TUE WED
2/15 2/16 2/17 2/18
MSP 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017) 58 (2017)
STC 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017) 57 (2017)
EAU 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981) 59 (1981)
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...NDC
CLIMATE...MPG
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