621
FXUS63 KMPX 041203
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
603 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FROM
WESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- GRADUAL WARM UP THIS WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS
LOW STRATUS COVERING MOST OF MN. ONLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF MN ARE STILL RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE BUT THE STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID-MORNING. A FEW WEATHER STATIONS IN NORTHWEST MN ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING FLURRIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE. LOOKING AT RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, THE SUBFREEZING THERMO PROFILE IS SATURATED MOSTLY
BENEATH THE DGZ. THUS, IN ADDITION TO FLURRIES, A MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. THIS PRECIP SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN BY SUNRISE. WHILE LITTLE TO
NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD CAUSE SLICK ROADS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT HEATING. WAA WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT, LOWS
TONIGHT WON'T FALL MUCH WITH MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 FORECAST. AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MN AND INTO WI, FORECAST MODELS PRODUCE
LIGHT QPF FROM NORTHEASTERN MN INTO WI LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AT FIRST GLANCE, THIS QPF SHOULD BE SNOW. BUT, EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE SATURATION OF THE
DGZ AND THE SATURATION OF THE PROFILE BELOW THE DGZ. A COUPLE HOUR
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FREEZING
DRIZZLE TAKES OVER AS THE COLUMN LOSES SATURATION FROM THE TOP-DOWN.
EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS WI,
BUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD THROW A WRENCH INTO THE MORNING
COMMUTE. PRECIP SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY WHILE SKIES CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY AS A LOBE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S IN WEST-CENTRAL WI TO LOWER 40S IN SOUTHWESTERN MN.
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AGAIN OVER WI THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 20-30% FOR OUR EASTERN WI COUNTIES IN COORDINATION
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
DURING THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS MN INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND INTO FRIDAY (HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S) UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH
LATER FRIDAY. WHILE WE WILL COOL INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS
EAST. BY SUNDAY, LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S (WARMEST IN SOUTHWESTERN MN)
ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WITH VALUES LOOKING TO ONLY CLIMB HIGHER BY
MONDAY. INDEED, NBM CURRENTLY HAS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA EXCEEDING 40
MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERN MN HAVING A GOOD SHOT AT LOWER 50S! THAT'S
"ONLY" 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... WHILE
LONG-RANGE MODELS DO SHOW US COOLING A LITTLE BIT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE WE WILL LOSE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR
SNOWPACK BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES RELYING ON SNOW. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THE LATTER
HALF OF FEBRUARY FLIPS TO MORE "WINTRY" BUT, AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST
DOESN'T LOOK VERY HOPEFUL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES EARLY THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MID MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THERE, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST. RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING
AROUND STC, BUT SO FAR THERE HAVEN'T BEEN REPORTS OF PRECIP AT
GROUND LEVEL. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
KMSP...CIGS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. CURRENTLY MONITORING
RADAR TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE ECHOES ARE DEVELOPING. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT GROUND LEVEL YET SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE DRY TAF FOR NOW. HOWEVER, AN AMENDMENT IS
POSSIBLE IF PRECIP DOES START TO REACH THE GROUND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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