424
FXUS63 KMPX 091725
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH FROST/FREEZE CHANCES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BEFORE WARMING NEXT WEEK.
- AFTER THIS MORNING'S RAIN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY BROAD ASCENT ALONG A JET STREAK AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE REGIONS WITH RAINFALL HAVE BEEN SEEING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT
VERSUS THE VALUES DOWN NEAR 30 IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS GAP
IN DEW POINT IS PART OF WHY QPF VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH AS THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. THE OTHER
IMPACT OF THESE DEW POINTS WILL BE FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER RISK, KEEPING THE RISK LOWER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MIXING AGAIN TODAY AND THE SUN WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR DROPPING DEW POINTS. THIS MEAN ANOTHER GUSTY AND DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE YET ANOTHER BAD DAY FOR
BURNING. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BOTH MORNINGS WILL SEE
FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
THEREFORE THE NBM FAVORING MONDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE CHANCE. WITH THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY MARCH THAN EARLY MAY.
EARLY IN THE WEEK A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BROAD SOURCE
OF LIFT FOR OUR NEXT, MORE WIDESPREAD, RAIN CHANCE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH >98% OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVING MEASURABLE QPF NORTH
OF I-94 AND EAST OF I-35. TO THE WEST OF THIS REGION STARTS TO
DROP BUT STAYS >75% OF MEMBERSHIP WITH QPF. WHERE THERE REMAINS
SPREAD THOUGH IS IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF, AS PROBS DROP BY ROUGHLY
HALF FOR 0.1" OF QPF. THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, THEREFORE LOCALLY HIGHER QPF, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH AND IT IS RATHER ELEVATED. AFTER
TUESDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY ALONG A PUSH
OF WAA. NOT AS STRONG OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AS TUESDAY'S RAIN
CHANCE, SO MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES IN THE ENSEMBLES. IN
ADDITIONAL TO THE RAIN CHANCES THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF A
PERIOD OF CONTINUED HOTTER AIR DAYS WITH MULTIPLE DAYS INTO THE
80S POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
STREAKS OF LOWER-MID LEVEL CUMULUS HAVE APPEARED OVER MAINLY EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI, AFFECTING MSP/RNH/EAU EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BECOMES DRIER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
BREEZY TODAY, DIRECTIONALLY AT 310-340 WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-
15KTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AS MIXING WEAKENS BY 00Z, WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FURTHER TO
BELOW 05KTS OVERNIGHT. SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06-08Z, LIFTING GRADUALLY AFTER 12Z AS MIXING AND
WINDS INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...TAPERED THE END OF THE ONGOING CUMULUS QUICKLY WITHIN THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS THE MIXED LAYER DRIES OUT, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR 070 LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 25KTS, FALLING BACK AFTER 00Z, WITH 20KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 17Z TOMORROW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND NW 15-20G30 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH
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