317
FXUS63 KMPX 042124
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY TRANSITIONS OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, & POTENTIALLY FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY LIFTED TO A STUBBORN LAYER OF
STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST AS
A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER, BUT WE'RE STILL SEEING WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS OUT & MID TO UPPER 40S UNDER
THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG LOOKS LIKELY WHERE SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT THE CURRENT LINGERING STRATUS MAKES
IT UNCERTAIN WHERE THAT FOG THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST. LATEST
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED CENTRAL MINNESOTA & NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG, WHILE SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA REMAINS CLEAR, ALTHOUGH OUR FOG COVER THIS MORNING
ENDED UP MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL
WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING TO FURTHER ANALYZE THE
CLOUD CLEARING TRENDS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING THURSDAY, BUT ANOTHER PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY IS
EXPECTED ONCE IT CLEARS OFF WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 50S &
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OUT OF SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 MPH.
THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
IOWA. THE TRACK OF THE LOW & MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF & NORTH OF THE LOW TO
CREATE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE'LL SEE AROUND 0.5-1"
OF QPF THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR FOR
WESTERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA HOWEVER, WHICH WILL LIKELY MISS OUT
ON ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN A FEW WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS & EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING, THEN A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON & EVENING, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
WRAP- AROUND REGION BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING, & THEN MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PREVENTS A POSSIBLE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA. THERE IS
A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS & GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS
AFTERNOON ROUND, BUT WE WOULD HAVE TO SEE THE TIMING OF THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOW BY 6+ HOURS TO LIKELY HAVE A CHANCE AT THESE
STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH WILL BE WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING, AS MODELS REMAIN MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN &
SNOW LOOKS MOST LIKELY, BUT WE COULD END UP SEEING A SWATH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD THE COLDEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY, OR EVEN
SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. HARD TO GO AGAINST THE AIFS DETERMINISTIC &
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AFTER THEIR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER, & SURE
ENOUGH THEY ARE ONE OF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS THAT GENERATES A
DEFINED WRAP-AROUND REGION OF SNOW OVERNIGHT & ACCUMULATION OF
AT LEAST 1-2" ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WE'RE STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT, BUT COULD BE SOME EARLY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW & CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DESPITE A RELATIVE COOL-DOWN SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, OUR
EARLY START TO SPRING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STAYS
NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER & ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN
THE 60S LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, & SUNDAY SHOWS SOME EARLY
POTENTIAL OF BEING A VERY WARM DAY AS THE AIFS ENSEMBLE
SUGGESTS ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 30F ABOVE NORMAL. WINTER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH HOWEVER, AS A LARGE
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
USHERS IN A PRONOUNCED STRETCH OF BELOW-NORMAL WEATHER. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SOUTH &
EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY AS WHEN THE COOLDOWN BEGINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
STUBBORN DENSE FOG AND VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN, BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD
BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FOG WHERE SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW IT
ERODING AWAY WITH HEATING. OUR AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SO EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG TO DENSE FOG FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
1/4-1/2SM (AND VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS) IS FOR MOST OF MN (EXCEPT
MSP) AND RNH. FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL SLOW TO NEAR OR
UNDER 5 KNOTS AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING.
KMSP...EXPECTING QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITHIN THE FIRST 1-2
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS FOG BURNS OFF. WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS HANGING AROUND INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT CAMS CURRENTLY
HINT AT IT BEING NOT AS DENSE. ONLY WENT DOWN TO IFR (WITH 2SM
VISIBILITY AND CIGS AT 600 FEET) FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ARRIVES EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR -RA BR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS, BCMG N LATE.
SAT...MVFR/IFR -RA/SN EARLY. VFR PM. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG
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