451
FXUS63 KMPX 251150
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- QUIET SEASONABLE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA & SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CAN'T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE MORNING & INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE WE'RE EXPECTING TO STAY DRY UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING. A RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS &
WARM ADVECTION INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT, WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LIKELY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL & SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY TO BUILD ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH DEEP SHEAR VALUES
OF 30-40 KTS.
SO WE'LL HAVE AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON & EVENING, BUT THE QUESTION
WILL BE JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONT & HOW EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON COULD THEY DEVELOP? DESPITE
THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY & SHEAR VALUES, THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE UP NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER, LIKELY
LIMITING INITIATION TO ONLY A FEW STORMS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN. FURTHERMORE, HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS STILL REMAIN QUITE VARIED IN JUST HOW EARLY, 7 THUS HOW
FAR EAST, THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS ACCORDING TO HREF/REFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP,
LIKELY SOMEWHERE ALONG INTERSTATE 35/THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY
AROUND 4-5 PM. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT A THREAT ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER. DEEP SHEAR
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS, WITH LARGE HAIL &
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT AS WELL BUT IS MUCH
LESS LIKELY THAN HAIL/WIND. THE SEVERE RISK CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY 10PM-MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT COOL AIR & CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE & DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE UPPER AIR
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM STRENGTHENS
ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER & A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
THE WEEKEND, BUT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. A STRONGER WAVE LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK/TIMING & LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING, BUT AT THE
MOMENT PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
TAF. MAIN TIMING WINDOW SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP IS 5-7 PM FOR
MSP/RNH, AND 7-9 PM FOR EAU.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH WINDS SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KMSP...LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING. IF A STORM DOES IMPACT THE TERMINAL, IT
COULD CONTAIN HAIL & GUSTY WINDS OVER 30-40 KTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS BEGINNING BY LATE
MORNING & CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 15G25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA
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