465
FXUS63 KMPX 301914
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
214 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MN
RIVER VALLEY IN SW MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL
LOW CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, KEEPING MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WITHIN THE
SAME NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE'VE HAD THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A
NUMBER OF WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE US
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OUR FIRST CHANCE IS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MINNESOTA ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS TIED
TO A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA, PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE MN RIVER VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT THAT THIS MORNING'S POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP, INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHERE THOSE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
PERSISTENT CAA CONTINUES BEHIND THIS WEAK WAVE TONIGHT,
PROMPTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES. WE KEPT
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEADLINE THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT FOR
CONTINUITY, THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF AN ADVISORY/WARNING CAN ASSUME
SIMILAR IMPACTS FOR ANY VEGETATION THAT MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE
ALREADY. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRICKY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MUCH OF MINNESOTA TO SEE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS AREA SPECIFICALLY. WESTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD
COVER, AT LEAST TO START THE NIGHT, GIVING US HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH OR DROP BELOW 32F, ESPECIALLY IN
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
THE FORECAST IS RINSE AND REPEAT FOR TOMORROW NIGHT, THOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A LOT THINNER, LIKELY PROMPTING MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SUSCEPTIBLE VEGETATION. ANY ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
THIS WEEKEND, A MILDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING UPPER LOW, GIVING US A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHS IN THE
60S. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS QUICKLY FOLLOW, RESULTING IN MINOR
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FOR A FEW DAYS, AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN, SIMILAR TO
OUR PATTERN THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT, VARYING
BETWEEN SCT-BKN COVERAGE. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN MN, AND ONLY PASSING SHOWERS AT THAT, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE PROB30 MENTION AT BOTH AXN AND RWF FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NW TO N WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS, THOUGH THROUGH SUNSET THERE MAY
BE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ANOKA-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-ISANTI-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WASHINGTON-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
CHISAGO.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
PEPIN-PIERCE.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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