919
FXUS63 KMPX 080814
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
314 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WI AND IN KANABEC AND
CHISAGO COUNTIES IN MN. IF IT CONTINUES TO EXPAND DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO, MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL LOWS
SPANNING THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. A LOW APPROACHING THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL SET UP A TROUGH AXIS NORTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN AND EASTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH POCKETS OF 7.5 C/KM AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS AND
MAY FORM CLUSTERS INTO TONIGHT. SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LACKING PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS COULD STILL
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
BETTER NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION SHOULD
WANE GRADUALLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
THEN A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN INTO WI.
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SMALL
SCALE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION, EACH WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY. ANY OF THESE WILL BRING MORE LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SOME 80 DEGREE TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR RWF AND MKT, SO INCLUDED A PROB30.
WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...REMAINING QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY SOUTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST AROUND 13Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NE 10G20 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM MVFR/-TSRA. WIND NW 20G35 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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