029
FXUS63 KMPX 160744
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
244 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
MOSTLY DRY DAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND STARTS TONIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S)
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
(UPPER 70S) THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. WITH US NEAR A DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MINIMUM AND NO STORMS HAVING FORMED ENOUGH OF A COLD
POOL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE COME TO AN
END. THE LOW TRACK WILL KEEP SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRY WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON THIS LOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT
WITH JUST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS LINGERING IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING IN TONIGHT. WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM THERE WILL MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORTED IN WITH A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AS IT MOVES IN. THIS WILL HELP TO
MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE TO GIVE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGH
RAIN CHANCES BROADLY ACROSS THE REGION AS A DEEP MORE EARLY
SPRING/WINTER LIKE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHAT IS
INTERESTING ABOUT THE SETUP ARE THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THIS
CAN BROADLY BE PUT INTO TWO PHASES: BEFORE AND AFTER THE LOW
PASSES. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THIS WILL PRODUCE AMPLE SHEAR AND
HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER BASED ON THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE THE LOW MOVING THOUGH THIS WOULD BE IN
MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
THOUGH, THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE
BEHIND THE LOW BY THAT POINT. THIS WOULD CHANGE THE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE TO LEAVE US WITH MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR. THE LACK OF
THE TWO FULLY OVERLAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE WORST OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SINCE BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL BE
KEY HERE, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN RISK AREA.
THIS IS BECAUSE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BUILD THE HIGHEST THERE
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO OVERLAP WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR PROFILE. DUE TO THIS CHANCE TO SPC HAS BROUGHT A SLIGHT
RISK (2/5 RISK LEVEL) INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FOR THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.
WEDNESDAY'S LOW WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE ISOLATED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END. LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL ON HOW ACTIVE IT WILL BE.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, IT VARIES QUITE A BIT
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH EUROPEAN MEMBERS BEING MORE ACTIVE AND
NORTH AMERICAN (GEFS AND GEPS) STAYING ON THE DRY SIDE MORE
OFTEN. SO THE SPREAD HAS NOT IMPROVED IN THE PAST DAY WHEN IT
COMES TO CONFIDENCE IN POP. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING
CLUSTERING THOUGH IS FOR A WARMING TREND TO BRING US BACK INTO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GEPS EVEN
HAS A FEW MEMBERS AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND
INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED AS WE HAVE GOTTEN
LATER INTO THE NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. GENERALLY
VFR WITH SOME CHANCE AT MVFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE
MORNING. TUESDAY IN GENERAL SHOULD BE MORE OF A BREAK BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE NEXT ROUND COULD START FOR WESTERN MINNESOTA SITES BY THE
END OF THIS PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAF
INCLUSION YET.
KMSP...ANOTHER ROUND OF NOW MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL
TRACK OVER THE AIRFIELD LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS TO THE BEST THIS LOOKS LIKE VFR RAIN WITH FEW
IMPACTS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND FALL AGAIN ALONG THE USUAL
DIURNAL TREND TODAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA LIKELY, CHC -TSRA/IFR. WIND SE BCMG NW 5-15G20 KTS.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 5-15G20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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