130
FXUS63 KMPX 311151
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2.5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A STRONG 1047 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AND CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY. NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS
TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN WI OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD
OVERNIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TODAY, WEAKENING SLOWLY AS IT DOES SO.
INITIALLY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT THANKS
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH, BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES. THE
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK OMEGA WILL KEEP RATES
LIGHT, BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THERE MAY
BE MULTIPLE WAVES, HOWEVER, THAT RESULT IN OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN
THE SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION, THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOSS OF ICE IN THE DGZ WHICH MAY LEAD TO SHORT TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM
THAT A BIT, BUT THE RAP STILL INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY. THERE
IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF,
BUT HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND HEAVIER. SOME
SOLUTIONS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 1/4 INCH, WHICH SEEMS A
BIT OF A STRETCH CONSIDERING PWATS OF 0.4 INCHES AT BEST. AI QPF
OUTPUT REMAINS IN THE RANGE OF 0.1 TO 0.15", WHICH ASIDE FROM A
FEW HEAVIER POCKETS IN EASTERN MN WHERE LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS THE
LONGEST, SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN 1-2.5 INCHES OF
SNOW AREA WIDE BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE
CLIPPER. THEN, A GRADUAL MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS A PACIFIC
AIRMASS BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY SHOULD BRING
THE WARMEST AIR OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOW 40S NOT BEING RULED OUT. MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ONE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK, BUT ANY
THAT FALLS LOCALLY MAY BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THERMAL
PROFILES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN WI CONTINUE INCHING WESTWARD. THE
CLOUD DECK MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS RNH BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
EAU SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING, THEN LOWER GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN LATE
EVENING, SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS TODAY OR THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN AROUND 08Z TONIGHT, BECOMING STEADIER AFTER 10Z. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SN, THEN VFR LATE. WIND S TO NW 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND VRB TO NE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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