994
FXUS63 KMPX 221941
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
241 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S, WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NONE OF THESE
LOOK TO PROVIDE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT
OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THIS SETUP RAIN CHANCES AND QPF IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND FALLS OFF QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AS THE HIGH HELPS BRING IN DRY AIR.
TODAY AND TOMORROW... ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN A RIDGE RIGHT NOW,
THERE IS A SMALL ARE OF VORTICITY ACROSS IOWA WHOSE IMPACT IS
SHOWN IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. WE HAVE NO CHANCE FOR RAIN UP HERE, BUT
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS COVERED MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. FARTHER NORTH WE HAVE SOME SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS AS WELL. THIS EVENING THE FEATURE OVER IOWA WILL
MOVE OUT AND THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE PROVIDING FOR A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL AND SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH HOWEVER, FOR A
FROST ADVISORY. TOMORROW WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK JET
STREAK, 500 MB SHORTWAVE, AND SOME 850 MB WAA MULTIPLE LEVELS
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH AS WELL TO SUPPORT
RAIN ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. DRY AIR ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN COMBINED WITH LESS SYNOPTIC FORCING
HAVE QPF VALUES FOCUSED ON WESTERN MINNESOTA ACROSS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE NBM. THIS DOESN'T MEAN NO RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN JUST LESS RAIN. SPC SHOWS A DAY 2
GENERAL THUNDER RISK, BUT NOT A DAY 3. SO THAT INITIAL WAVE
COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER, BUT OVERALL
LOOKS MORE LIKE RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY A SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS COULD PROVIDE
FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. FOR THE REST OF US
THE IMPACT WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY SO DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES COULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. SATURDAY SEES
A SETUP VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH STILL TO THE
EAST. SO ONCE AGAIN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA FALLING OFF THE THE EAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO SHIFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A LARGER SYSTEM LOOKING TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW IS STILL HIGHLY VARIABLE SO CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE THE RAIN WOULD FALL IS STILL HIGH. TEMPERATURES BEFORE
THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN, SO THROUGH SATURDAY, ARE FORECAST TO
BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 60S (FAVORING LOWER TO MID 60S). EARLY
NEXT WEEK THIS LOOKS TO SHIFT MORE INTO ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORMALS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
RIGHT AROUND 70 TODAY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS WEEKEND.
SO THE SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK HAS ABOUT AS MUCH TO DO
WITH FALLING NORMALS AS IT DOES SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS. WE
ARE NOW IN THE TIME OF YEAR WITH SOME OF THE FASTEST DECREASES
IN TEMPERATURE NORMALS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER A
SLOWLY GROWING CU FIELD IS EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH SOME BKN CIGS AT MSP EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO SCT
WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR,
HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. MKT HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT BRIEF MVFR, WITH VFR
RETURNING AS BASES SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z BELOW 8KTS, WITH DIRECTIONS LARGELY REMAINING 100-130.
KMSP...BKN 040 CIGS AT TAF START MAY NOT LAST TOO LONG, HOWEVER
WE DO EXPECT TO REMAIN VFR REGARDLESS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 040.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA EARLY. WIND SSE 5-10 KTS
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH
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