814
FXUS63 KMPX 022315
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF AN INCH. FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MIX
IN AT TIMES ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- ANOTHER WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, & FREEZING RAIN LIKELY
SUNDAY.
- WARMER WITH ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES FROM A STRENGTHENING
JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE FORCING
FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET PEAKS OVERNIGHT, AND IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA
& WESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE, BUT THE INCOMING STRATUS LOOKS TO BE SOLIDLY WITHIN
THE DGZ & SHOULD ALLOW FOR DUSTING AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5" TO
EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATE BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING. A CHANCE FOR
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHERE WEAKER FORCING FROM THE JET STREAK
MEANS WE COULD LOSE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT.
ROADS COULD BE SLICK CWA-WIDE TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DURING OF SNOW, BUT PAY EXTRA CLOSE ATTENTION
TO THE ROAD CONDITIONS IF TRAVELING ACROSS FAR-WESTERN &
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING JET STREAK. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NEAR 30 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, WITH AN EVEN WARMER DAY SUNDAY AS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA REACHES OR EXCEEDS FREEZING. A
SECONDARY JETSTREAK THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM THROUGHOUT DAY ON SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHERE & WHEN EXACTLY THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM
THE JETSTREAK, BUT ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST THE FARTHER NORTH &
EAST YOU GO INTO MINNESOTA & ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SECOND ROUND
SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, WITH
MOSTLY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, WHILE THE CHANCES FOR MORE SLEET & FREEZING RAIN
INCREASE THE FARTHER SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN ONE GOES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUGGEST SLEET WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY "MIXED" PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THE
REMNANT COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN, BUT IT'S HARD TO REALLY PIN DOWN SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
THERMAL FEATURES LIKE THIS MORE THAN A DAY OUT. POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN, TO JUST A
DUSTING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA - WHERE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN AT TIMES.
ANOTHER, MORE PRONOUNCED, BOUT OF RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK & LEADS TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 10-20 F ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS AT LEAST ABOVE FREEZING, POSSIBLY IN THE
40S AT TIMES, & OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. A FEW WEAK
WAVES COULD BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES (& COOLER
TEMPERATURES) THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT GENERALLY THE WEATHER LOOKS
QUIET UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN ENSEMBLE & DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCES
SUGGESTS A LARGE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE GENERAL MIDWEST. WE'RE
STILL MORE THAN A WEEK OUT, BUT AI ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM TAKING A TRACK THAT WOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW ACROSS MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
HIGH CEILING VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT UNTIL SNOW STARTS TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD TO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THE MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW WITH AN MVFR IMPACT AS IT FALLS. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A PREVAILING WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MOST LIKELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. BEHIND THE SNOW SOME LOWER CEILINGS, LOW MVFR INTO
HIGH IFR, IN THE MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. S CHC -SN/IFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W AT 5 KTS, BCMG SE.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS, BCMG W.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...NDC
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