360
FXUS63 KMPX 280513
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD & DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
- EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS SATELLITE REVEALS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL ON
THE BREEZY SIDE FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER-LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF ~1030MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS INCREASES WITH EACH
PASSING HOUR, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, THOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING WIND CHILLS OF
ROUGHLY -10 OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RUN BETWEEN
ZERO TO -10, WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25. THE COLDEST VALUES
ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN. A SIMILAR THEME IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, AS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH SENDS AN ELONGATED
INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE REPRESENTED BY A ~1045MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL YIELD OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF UPCOMING PERIOD. MORNING
LOWS BETWEEN -5 TO -15 WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OUR
LATEST FORECAST GRIDS SUGGEST THAT WE'LL RUN JUST ABOVE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH THIS IS A TIMEFRAME THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINE.
WE START TO SEE THE SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE ON SATURDAY, AS LARGE
SCALE RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. IN
RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION, THERE IS
GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A RETURN TO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS SUNDAY, MONDAY, & TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, WE LOOK TO FINALLY HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD
MORNING LOWS ABOVE ZERO (PERHAPS ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS!). THE
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGING WILL PLACE THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR AN ACTIVE CLIPPER
PATTERN. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW EFFICIENT SNOW WILL BE GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE SURFACE HIGH, HOWEVER ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD INCH OR
TWO OF FRESH POWDER. ANOTHER CLIPPER AIMS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOWER IN SPECIFICS GIVEN THE FORECAST
DISTANCE OF ABOUT A WEEK OR SO OUT. I WOULD VENTURE TO GUESS
MOST FOLKS WON'T MIND THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IF IT MEANS
DAILY HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
COMPARED TO THE 00Z TAF, THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE
SOME 3000FT SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING PEAK DAYLIGHT TOMORROW,
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED AT AXN/MKT TODAY. WE MAY SEE
BRIEF BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WE
SHOULD REMAIN FEW/SCT. WINDS REMAIN AT 290-320 AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGHOUT.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...TDH
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