522
FXUS63 KMPX 141931
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
131 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON TUESDAY AROUND 40
DEGREES.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER,
MORE SEASONABLE, TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY TIED TO WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT
TO SAY THAT TODAY IS WARM BY ANY MEANS, BUT WE HAVE BEEN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY WARM THROUGH PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS IS ALL DUE TO THE BROADER FLOW WITH 850 MB
WESTERLIES ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR. BETWEEN THIS REGION TO OUR
WEST STILL BEING SNOW COVERED AND OUR OWN SNOW PACK HAVING
COOLED A LOT OVER THIS LAST COLD SPELL, WE WON'T BE WARMING
MUCH FOR OUR WARM DAYS. TOMORROW LOOKING LIKE 20S WITH A CHANCE
FOR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL WARMER AREAS ALONG THE BUFFALO
RIDGE. THE WAA LOOKS TO PEAK ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO UP AROUND 40. A SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BREAK THIS WAA, BUT ONE LAST PUSH OF WAA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE THE NEXT BIGGER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE A CLIPPER MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. CURRENTLY MOST GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS LOW OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA KEEPING US ON THE WARMER/SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THIS LOW. THIS MEANS RAIN OR A MIX (LOCATION DEPENDENT WITH
FARTHER SOUTH MORE RAIN) FOR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A CHANGE TO
SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS THE CURRENT MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. THIS
MEANS SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD STAY ON THE LOWER SIDE AND IT WOULD
TAKE A MAJOR SHIFT SOUTH IN THIS TRACK TO CHANGE THAT. A SHIFT
THIS FAR SOUTH IS NOT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST ENVELOPE OF THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS, SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. WHAT IS IN
THIS FORECAST ENVELOPE IS VARIABILITY IN HOW FAST THIS CLIPPER
WRAPS COLD AIR IN ALONG ITS SOUTH SIDE. SOME MEMBERS, NOT THE
MAJORITY, HAVE THIS EVOLVE FASTER AND COULD HAVE A FASTER
TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN THE END, NOT LOOKING LIKE A SUPER
IMPACTFUL EVENT FOR US, AS IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CLEAN RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION WITHOUT MUCH CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN. NBM
HOURLY POWT KEEPS THE FREEZING RAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT DURING THE
CHANGEOVER PERIOD. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
A WARM NOSE, BUT WHILE THIS IS PRESENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO WARMER AND BY THE TIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLS BELOW
FREEZING SO DOES THE WHOLE PROFILE. COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY
TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LLWS REMAINS LIKELY FOR RWF, MKT, MSP,
RNH, AND EAU LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE INVERSION. WINDS TURN
LIGHTER AROUND DAY BREAK AS THEY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR. WIND SW 10-15G20KTS.
WED...MVFR. WIND SE 10-15G20KTS.
THU...MVFR. WIND S EARLY, BCMG NW 15-20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CARLETTA
AVIATION...BPH
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