233
FXUS63 KMPX 150813
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
313 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM, DRY, & WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, WILL CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
& WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DRY & WINDY & CONDITIONS SETS UP FOR LATER
TODAY AS SEASONALLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA & ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE LOW FILLS IN
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH LOO LIKELY AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN FALL TO
AROUND 20% OR LOWER BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH ONE OF OUR WARMER
DAYS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 MPH IS HIGHEST, ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA & INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUSTS COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA, BUT THESE IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARDS FROM THE CANADIAN LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY, & ACT AS A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WHEN WEAK
FORCING ALOFT ARRIVES FROM A JETSTREAK OVER THE REGION. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS MAINLY LIMIT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ERN MINNESOTA & SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT A FEW OF THE LATEST
06Z RUNS DO INITIATE STORMS A FEW HOURS EARLIER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ONLY A EXPECTING WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE, BUT
DEEP SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS & ORIENTED
MOSTLY PERPENDICULARLY TO THE FORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO IT'S
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A FEW SUPERCELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THESE STRONGEST STORMS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
DOWNBURST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
BUILDING TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SPINS UP A NUMBER OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SATURDAY'S THREAT LOOKS TO MAINLY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, AS A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER
SD/NE/IA & THE FOLLOWS THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT SOUTHWARDS INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RESIDUAL SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO A WET START TO
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND INTO MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
OUR AREA, AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION LEAD TO
CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG WITH DEEP SHEAR VALUES INCREASING OVER 50 KTS. STILL A BIT
FAR OUT FOR DETAILS, BUT THE FEW HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS WE HAVE
AT THAT RANGE SUGGESTS DISCRETE STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN MERGE INTO AN
MCS & MOVE EASTWARDS THROUGH MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN THE LINEAR STORM MODE SCENARIO, BUT WE COULD SEE A
HAIL & TORNADO THREAT DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE FOR LONGER. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS WE WON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET, AT WHICH POINT THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TIMING TRENDS
INTO SUNDAY AS AN EARLIER ONSET TO STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT, AGAIN WITH DAMAGING
WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE AT A SOAKING
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MONTH. SUNDAY'S STORMS
ESPECIALLY WITH AI & ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GREATER THAN
50% PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS & SOAKING
RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN & CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE REAL NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE MUGGIER
DEWPOINTS WITH VALUES IN THE 60S EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
REMNANT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR OF EAU VICINITY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIGS
WILL ALSO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES EAST. RNH
AND EAU HAVE YET TO OBSERVE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THEREFORE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH HOWEVER THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE. BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, ALL SITES CAN EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BUT
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 18-25KTS OUT OF THE WEST. MKT AND EAU DO
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER SOUTH OF EACH OF THESE SITES TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...SHORT PERIOD OF 45KT LLWS ENDING AT 10Z THIS MORNING. SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY
BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WONT BE AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
CAN EXPECT GUSTS TODAY REACHING BETWEEN 15-20KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
SUN...-SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY, IFR/MVFR. WIND ESE 10-15G30KTS.
MON...-SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY, IFR/MVFR. WIND SW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR BENTON-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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