923
FXUS63 KMPX 071247
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG EXPECTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN MN
INTO WESTERN WI THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER
SUNRISE, AND POTENTIALLY ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TOMORROW, WITH SOME AREAS IN SW MN REACHING THE LOWER
40S TODAY.
- CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN
INTO WESTERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WAVY SURFACE
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND MN
THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MAINLY FAR EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI ARE
HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. IN
ADDITION, THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN
AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE WFO MPX
COVERAGE AREA. MEANWHILE, IN CENTRAL-SOUTHERN-WESTERN MN WHERE
ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT, TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, AND MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE SUNRISE. ALOFT, GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ALTHOUGH
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT A BROAD STRETCHED-OUT RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THUS, WE
FINALLY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES DECIDEDLY ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S, AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOWER 40S IN SOUTHWESTERN MN. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUED REDUCTION IN THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE THE BATTLE BETWEEN EVAPORATED MOISTURE TRANSLATING
TO CLOUD COVER VERSUS THE RIDGE MAKING FOR A BROADER DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, THUS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COVERAGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST LINGERING CLOUD COVER WHILE WESTERN
PORTIONS HAVE THE CLEARING SKIES AND HENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WITH WINDS AGAIN ON THE TRANQUIL SIDE TONIGHT PLUS THE WARM
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
LOOKS LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE
SIMILAR HAZARDS OF SOME DEPOSITION RESULTING IN SOME SLICK SPOTS
(MOST LIKELY BRIDGES/OVERPASSES). BUT OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S
AREA-WIDE. OF NOTE FOR THURSDAY IS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS MOVING
ONSHORE THE WEST COAST MIDDAY TODAY: ONE OVER THE PACNW AND
ANOTHER OVER THE BAJA. BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE DRAGGING A SLUG OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT. WITH SIMILAR TIMING, THE NORTHERN LOW
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST, MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS OF A SURFACE
FEATURE NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, ESSENTIALLY BECOMING A
HYBRID CO/PANHANDLE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE NE INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING THEN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS NUDGE THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW A BIT FARTHER N FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS THE UPTICK IN
POPS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA.
THERE IS ALSO A NUDGE UPWARDS IN QPF AMONG MOST GLOBAL MODELS,
AND STARTING TO SHOW UP IN CAMS, OWING TO NOT ONLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT ALSO SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GULF. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT IN
P-TYPE NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY FRM-MKT-MSP-RZN,
WHICH LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN/SNOW DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES, WEST OF THAT LINE COULD DEAL WITH A
BRIEF BOUT OF FZDZ DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW
QUICKLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE CAN SATURATE. CONFIDENCE LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE FZDZ POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT SOME CAMS STILL HOLD ONTO THE
POSSIBILITY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE IN
SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. BECAUSE SFC TEMPS DURING THE
TIME OF MOST INTENSE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 30S, SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT ALTOGETHER
ENDING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AFTER A RESPITE FROM PRECIP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, ATTENTION TURNS TO THAT
SECONDARY LOW WHICH MOVED ONSHORE THE WESTERN COAST MIDWEEK.
THIS LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK, THEN PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWARD TREK ONCE
AGAIN (AS SEEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO), THUS THE POPS HAVE NOW
INCREASED FOR EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THOUGH
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY CYCLOGENESIS OF A
CLIPPER-TYPE LOW FROM WITHIN THE TROUGH, MOISTURE FROM THE
RESIDUAL SOUTHERN LOW WILL BECOME ENVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST, AGAIN RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN A COLD
ENOUGH SYSTEM (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 20S) TO PRODUCE MINOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING, MAINLY OVER EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATIONS OF 1" OR MORE ARE FAIRLY HIGH BUT
THE PROBABILITIES DROP OFF WHEN LOOKING AT 3+" POTENTIAL.
THIS SYSTEM EXITS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN DRY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
ANOTHER WARM-UP LOOKS TO BE IN PLAY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE AT THIS POINT SMALL POPS INTRODUCED
INTO THE FAR-OUT PORTION OF THE FORECAST BY THE NBM SO WILL NEED
TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES BEFORE TALKING ABOUT ANY OTHER SYSTEMS
GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER WESTERN WI THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING, MATCHING UP WITH THE
REMAINING MN TAFS FOR TODAY. ONLY PASSING HIGH CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS UNDER 10KTS. PATCHY TO AREAS OF BR/FZFG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY, MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN WI. FLIGHT CONDS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO IFR/LIFR IN THE HOURS APPROACHING SUNRISE, WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY ABOUT 15Z OR SO.
KMSP...PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE THE MOST THAT CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH AT TIMES CEILINGS AROUND 10KFT MAY
DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT,
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN THROUGH
SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE NIGHT. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
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