427
FXUS63 KMPX 230530
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CORE OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO.
- HIGHS REBOUND TO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN. BEFORE THIS LOW IS FULLY PUSHED OUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
CLOUD, THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES IN PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THESE
CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT AS THE AFORE MENTIONED HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES IN. COOL AIR ALSO ADVECTS IN WITH THIS ADVANCING
HIGH PRESSURE AND WHERE THIS COOL AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVERLAP
WILL GET BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH A COOL AND SUNNY DAY FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
AND COLD NIGHT. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CORE
OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONE OR
BOTH OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE COOL AIR SHIFTING EAST FROM
MAINLY MINNESOTA TONIGHT TO HAVING THE COLDEST AIR MORE OVER
WISCONSIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BY FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE TO THE EAST RETURNING FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS BREAKING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SUNDAY NIGHT AS GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS START TO MOVE TROUGHING IN FROM THE WEST.
NEXT WEEK... TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL BE THE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER IMPACTS TO START THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS, BUT HOW DEEP THE TROUGHING GETS INTO THE US VARIES.
THIS VARIABILITY IS EVEN MORE APPARENT WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IT HAS
BEEN SHIFTING TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
PRECIPITATION, THE VARIABILITY REMAINS THOUGH IN QPF AND
TIMING. THIS HAS KEPT NBM POP VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 50
RANGE ACROSS A LARGE TIME RANGE TO START THE WEEK. SO THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO OCCUR IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS HIGHER
THAN THE POPS SHOW, BUT WITH THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR THE POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS WE GET CLOSER
AND ENSEMBLE START TO CLUSTER MORE THIS POP WILL BE INCREASED
ACROSS A SHORTER TEMPORAL SCALE TO GIVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHEN
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WE WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO BE RAIN, WITH THE FIRST SNOW UNLIKELY TO FALL THIS MONTH
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE
BACK IN FOR THE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME MODEL TO MODEL
VARIABILITY ON WHEN THIS MOVES IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES ACROSS MN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS WI COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO EAU
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, MOSTLY AROUND 3KFT, WHICH COULD BRING MORE MVFR CIGS
TO AREAS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE, MOST LIKELY IN WI.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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