445
FXUS63 KMPX 011710
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL-TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
- RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK, AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
- INCREASING CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHERN & EASTERN MN & WESTERN WI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING BRINGS US BACK TO WINTER AS A
BRIEF, BUT INTENSE PUSH OF COLD AIR SETTLES IN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM OUT OF THE MID 20S, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, WITH AN END CAP OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL GOOD THINGS COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
40S AND 50S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WAA VIA SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. POPS INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ON TUESDAY.
WHAT'S DRIVING OUR EARLY WEEK TO MID WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES? AN
IMPRESSIVE SPRING SYSTEM WILL BE TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MID-WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
OUR SYSTEM. THIS ALLOWS ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST THAT'LL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. YESTERDAY NIGHT'S GUIDANCE
OFFERED A STRONG SYSTEM THAT TRACKED FROM ROUGHLY ST LOUIS TO
DETROIT, PHASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL MN OR WESTERN WI. TONIGHT'S GUIDANCE PHASES
OUR SYSTEM EARLIER OVER IOWA AND OUR SFC LOW TRACKS FROM KANSAS
CITY TO MILWAUKEE. THE EARLIER PHASE ALLOWS FOR OUR LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST VS EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS
LOW TRACK HISTORICALLY PRODUCES A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FROM DES MOINES TO LA CROSSE TO THE UP (YOOP). OUR NORTHWEST
TREND WAS APPARENT FROM 12Z FRI TO TONIGHT'S 00Z GUIDANCE WITH
SUPPORT IN ENSEMBLES TOO. THIS TREND IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
ALLOWS FOR THE BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO IMPACT S MN, E MN, AND W WI.
THE LATEST NBM POPS HAVE INCREASED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT QPF FORECAST INCREASED TOO. 24 HOURS AGO THE EPS HAD A MEAN
OF ~0.10" QPF AT MSP. THE 00Z [CURRENT] EPS HAS OVER 0.50" (~) FOR
MSP. THAT'S AN IMPRESSIVE JUMP FOR 24 HOURS. RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WE'LL SEE
COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTER INTO THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE TIMING OF THIS
WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE. RIGHT NOW - OUR CHANCES TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCREASED. SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR S/E MN AND W WI. PRECIPITATION
TAPERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AS A 98- MB LOW. SO IS THIS SYSTEM A LOCK TO BRING US
ACCUMULATING SNOW? NO...NOT YET. THERE ARE MORE QUESTION MARKS
WITH THE TIMING OF NORTHERN & SOUTHERN STREAM AND EXACTLY WHEN
THEY PHASE. IF YOU'RE HOPING FOR AN IMPACTFUL SPRING SYSTEM (AND
SNOW)... YOU'LL WANT TO SEE AN EARLIER PHASE (JUST NOT TOO
EARLY). IT'LL TAKE ANOTHER ~TWO DAYS OR SO BEFORE THINGS BEGIN
TO LOCK IN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. ONE POTENTIAL HANG UP COMES WITH THE NBM HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUR/FRI. NBM HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
BOTH DAYS YET IF WE SEE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW, WE'LL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COLDER. THE 00Z EPS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND THAT SEEMS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2025
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE NORTH TODAY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND
THEN FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW.
KMSP...NO WEATHER CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR BCMG MVFR CIGS. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR -RA LIKELY CHANGING TO -SN LATE. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR BCMG MVFR/VFR. RA/SN LIKELY. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC
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