577
FXUS63 KMPX 052346
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING ACROSS FAR-
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- RAIN DURING THE MORNING TRANSITIONS OVER TO FREEZING RAIN,
THEN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN & SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.1" AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
- ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-MARCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CLOUDS HAVE AGAIN BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS - BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT EARLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. PATCHY FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS & HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
KEEP IT MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN PRIOR NIGHTS.
THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
IOWA & A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHWARDS AHEAD
OF THE LOW. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT THE
PRECIPITATION REALLY BEGINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3
OF MINNESOTA & WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5" ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNING ROUND OF
RAIN, BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE, NOT EXPECTING M ORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
& POTENTIALLY MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY STILL
BE ONGOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL STAY
SOUTH & EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS IOWA & WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING TO EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS FAR-SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, & A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LATER ROUND. FAR-SOUTHERN MINNESOTA REMAINS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK, MAINLY FOR HAIL DURING THIS SECOND ROUND, BUT
AGAIN THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE LIKELY OFF TO OUR
SOUTH.
MORE IMPACTFUL TO OUR AREA WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM THE DRIZZLE
& LIGHT RAIN INTO FREEZING RAIN AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND 0.1" OF ICE
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING WHEN MORE APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES, THIS AREA OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
SPREADING EAST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA & FAR-WESTERN WISCONSIN.
BUT WE EXPECT THE FREEZING DRAIN TO GENERALLY TRANSITION MORE
INTO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW & FREEZING RAIN, & EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA ONCE THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGES
OVER TO ICE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, WHICH IN ADDITION TO
THE PRIOR ICE WILL CREATE VERY SLICK CONDITIONS ON ROADS &
SURFACES FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS TONIGHT & INTO FRIDAY IN CASE WE NEED TO EXTEND
IT FARTHER EAST INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO & EASTERN MINNESOTA
SHOULD THE ICING POTENTIAL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THE LIGHT
SNOW EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY, &
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BY THE
AFTERNOON, QUICKLY IMPROVING ANY LINGERING SLICK ROADS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM-UP SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES OF
20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY, MEANING WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 60S LOOK POSSIBLE IF WE CAN KEEP ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AWAY.
WINTER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH HOWEVER,
AS A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY USHERS IN A PRONOUNCED STRETCH OF BELOW-NORMAL
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS SOUTH
OF OUR AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AGAIN LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH & EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EVIDENT IN THE AI DETERMINISTIC & ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN OUR COLD AIR REGIME BEHIND THE LOW.
BEYOND THAT, WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MARCH, WITH A FEW SYSTEMS CAPABLE
OF WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
MESSY NEXT ~36 HOURS OF AVIATION WEATHER, AS A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND VARYING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TYPES TO THE REGION. THE PERIOD OPENS ON A BENIGN NOTE, WITH
MVFR STRATUS ~2K FEET OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG
PERSISTS AT AXN, THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS GREATLY IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR OR
LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT AHEAD OF RAIN CHANCES THAT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL
SURGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING THAT MAY INCLUDE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. WE HAVE ADDRESSED
THIS WITH A PROB30 FOR TS AT MKT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL
IN RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE MORNING ROUND, THOUGH LOW CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MN FOLLOWING
MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL, WHICH AGAIN LOOKS MOST
LIKELY AT MKT. THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO COLDER AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN. MAJORITY
OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BEYOND THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE GREATER MENTION IN THE NEXT TAF
PACKAGE.
KMSP...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT LOOK TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 9-12Z. ON/OFF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD HAVE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH THOSE CHANCES APPEAR GREATER
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. RENEWED RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT BEARS WATCHING. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR -RA/SN EARLY. VFR PM. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR BENTON-BROWN-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...STRUS
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