345
FXUS63 KMPX 160735
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
135 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
ABOUT AS NORMAL WEATHER AS YOU CAN EXPECT FOR NOVEMBER TODAY &
INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S & LOWS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S. WE'RE CONTINUING TO PAY ATTENTION TO A
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS & MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY, WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM'S PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 0.10" OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN & CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN, SO WE HAVE NO DOUBT THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME LIQUID OUT OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION REMAINS, HOW COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, & WILL
WE SEE ANY EXTRA DYNAMIC COOLING FROM POTENTIAL DEFORMATIONAL
FORCING DEPICTED BY A FEW OF THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
RAIN MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FIRST EXTENDS
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. IT'S LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY CREATE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH ANY
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THERE
ARE A FEW DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS THAT WRAP UP A STRONGER
SURFACE FLOW, WHICH CREATES A BAND OF DEFORMATIONAL FORCING OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL & THUS A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, THESE APPEAR TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS AT
THIS TIME WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
BE WEAKENING, NOT STRENGTHENING, AS IT PASSES OVER IOWA TUESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION SUCH AS SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO
THE SNOW, BUT THESE OUTCOMES VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN GOING INTO ANY MORE DETAIL THAN A GENERAL
SNOW/WINTRY MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANY IMPACTS FROM ICE LOOK VERY UNLIKELY, EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE,
GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THERE ARE A FEW ICY WINDSHIELDS IN SPOTS TUESDAY
MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH DRY & SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW IN THE EVOLUTION OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS &
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT ALL ARE INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT ANY
LOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL TRACK OFF TO OUR SOUTH. SOME LIGHT RAIN
COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW
CHANCES FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP GIVEN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DRY & SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THEN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
QUIET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
AND WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS INITIALLY FROM 300-330 SHIFTING
TOWARDS 060-90 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SPEEDS ALSO DECREASE.
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT OVER
WESTERN MN WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF, HOWEVER ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FEW250 TO SKC
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, -RASN/MVFR EARLY. WIND E 10KTS.
WED...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND SE 5KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC -RA/MVFR. WIND SE TO NE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH
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