113
FXUS63 KMPX 130747
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN WITH FRIDAY AS THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK DUE TO THE OVERLAP OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
AIR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE TODAY. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING ON OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT AND TODAY
WILL BE A SUNNY DAY. WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE, BUT DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
AMPLE MIXING. IT IS JUST THAT TODAY THE WINDS THAT ARE MIXED
DOWN ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. SO DESPITE
A SIMILAR RH SETUP, FIRE WEATHER IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN
FOR TODAY.
THURSDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY A SURFACE LOW TRAVELING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. INITIALLY WE WILL SEE WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKE WE SAW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WE WILL
GET ANOTHER ENVIRONMENT, FRIDAY, THAT LOOKS TO BE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER. THIS IS ALL FOR THE SAME REASONS AS TUESDAY'S RED FLAG
WARNING WITH MORE AMPLE MIXING, BUT UNLIKE TODAY HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BRINGING RH VALUES EVEN LOWER THAN WHAT WE
SAW ON TUESDAY. RH VALUES DON'T IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
WE FINALLY SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVE IN AGAIN. SATURDAY FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE LESS OF CONCERN WITH LIGHTER WINDS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED.
LATE SATURDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE START OF A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD. THIS COULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD GREEN UP THAT COULD HELP TO END TO SPRING
FIRE WEATHER SEASON. THIS MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PERIOD IS
DRIVEN BY ONE LARGE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS LARGE SYSTEM IMPACTING US HAS A HIGH >80% CHANCE TO OCCUR.
HOW THIS EVOLVES WITH QPF AND SPECIFIC TIMING STILL HAS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITHIN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL THERE IS
A BROAD PRECIPITATION ENVELOPE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FOLLOWING TUESDAY NIGHT. DOES THIS MEAN RAIN THE WHOLE TIME?
NO, IT WILL NOT RAIN THIS WHOLE TIME. THIS IS JUST WHEN NBM HAS
POPS DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE START AND END TIMES WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLES. THE MAIN PERIOD OF OVERLAP BETWEEN THESE DIFFERENT
MEMBERS AND SYSTEMS IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT'S WHERE WE
SEE THE GREATEST CLUSTERING AND THE HIGHEST NBM POPS. AS WE GET
CLOSER THE ENSEMBLES WILL CLUSTER MORE ALLOW US TO SHRINK THIS
LARGER ENVELOPE OF TIMES FROM SAT TO TUE. TIMING WILL BE
IMPORTANT AS INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
DIURNALLY DEPENDENT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY VS THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING PERIOD. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 6 JUST TO
OUR SOUTH, SO WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FINAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN TO SEE IF, ESPECIALLY PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WE SEE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CALMING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS
WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN ALONG THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL NOT AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. IN THE EVENING
WINDS WILL CALM AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO MVFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BASED ON UPSTREAM CEILINGS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO W 15-20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR, CHC -SHRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page