794
FXUS63 KMPX 180112
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW POTENTIAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- INCREASING TREND FOR A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO ADD
AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"+ ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARDS TWIN
CITIES METRO.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY - MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THERE ARE SEVERAL MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST, WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES OUR LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. OUR FIRST WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING,
POTENTIALLY EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OR SMALL HAIL ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN WITH THE HREF NOTING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE.
THE SUB-990MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES RIGHT OVER
CENTRAL MN. WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE, 12-18Z, WE'VE
SEEN A PRETTY DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FORCING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF THE LOW. IN TURN, SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS HAVE STARTED TO
MATCH SIMILAR TO WHAT A NUMBER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT, WITH A DEFORMATION BAND PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ON THAT SOUTHWEST EDGE. THIS TREND DOES HAVE US CONCERNED,
BECAUSE EVEN WITH THE SNOW BEING A WETTER, HEAVIER SNOW, THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW COULD LEAD TO A
RAMP UP IN IMPACTS FOR WEDNESDAY. WE ARE NOT ISSUING WINTER
HEADLINES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE IN ORDER TO AVOID
JUMPING THE GUN IN CASE HI-RES GUIDANCE SETTLES BACK DOWN,
THOUGH WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL AND GIVE A HEADS UP
THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN WI. FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
METRO, A LOT WOULD HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR A HEADLINE TO BE
NEEDED, THOUGH IF THE TREND FOR A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW (AND WIND) CONTINUES, A SHORTER-FUSED ALERT MAY BE
LEVERAGED.
THE REASON FOR THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DESPITE THE EVENT STARTING
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE MODELS ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE A
STRONG, YET OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE. SHOULD THAT BAND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOP, IT IS LIKELY YOU HAVE A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF WITH THE DRY SLOT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, QPF LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN, WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEEING THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS. THAT TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE KEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL MN. AN
EARLIER TRANSITION WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS, WHICH IS THE
WAY WE HAVE BEEN TRENDING WITH OUR FORECAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
FORCING MAY WEAKEN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AS IT
OCCLUDES, LIMITING RATES. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF QPF
IS POSSIBLE, FALLING AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERE IS A HIGH
CEILING FOR TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL MN DOWN TOWARDS PORTIONS OF
THE TWIN CITIES METRO, WITH THE EURO, AIFS, HRRR, AND NAM
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES WITHIN THE NARROW BAND. ON
THE FLIP SIDE, YOU HAVE THE RRFS AND GFS WHICH KEEP THINGS NORTH
AND GENERALLY LIGHTER FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW, WE WOULD
HAZARD BELIEVING THESE OUTPUTS, THOUGH THEY WARRANT ATTENTION
GIVEN THAT EVEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD LEAD TO
IMPACTS. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FORECAST UP TO THIS POINT HAS
BEEN FOR THE MAJORITY OF SNOW TO STAY NORTH.
THE FUN CONTINUES THURSDAY, WITH THOSE ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE FALLING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT TRACKS NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AND CUTS
UP NORTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE MN INTO W WI. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS AS MODELS SEEM TO BE LOCKING
IN TO A COMMON SOLUTION, PRODUCING LESS OF A BROAD STROKE FOR
OUR SNOWFALL FOOTPRINT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SETTLE IN AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES, STRETCHING FROM ALBERT LEA UP TOWARDS EAU CLAIRE. THIS
EVENT DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE AS HIGH OF A CEILING, AND AT THE
VERY LEAST WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE IMPACTS TO THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TRAVEL.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING OUR
COOL DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. THERE'S AT LEAST SOME SUGGESTION FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH MOST FOLKS CAN
EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEK TUE/WED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
QUITE THE MESSY SET OF TAFS GIVEN THE PRECIP SCENARIO, SHIFTING
WINDS, LLWS AND DROPPING CEILINGS.
FOR PRECIP, KMPX RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING A SWATH OF RAINFALL
MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PROGRESS, A MORE BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WILL COVER MOST TAF SITES,
MAINLY NORTH OF BOTH RWF-MKT, THUS THE MORE PREVAILING MENTION
AT THOSE 5 NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES IN OUR COVERAGE AREA. RAIN
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE.
THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED AS IT BECOMES A TIMING ISSUE OF THE
MIXING WITH AND EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
OCCUR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI,
THUS AXN-STC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE PRIOR TO 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.
MSP LOOKS TO OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 00Z, POTENTIALLY AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN THAT, BUT THERE IS STILL TIME TO REFINE THAT
TIMING. THE REMAINING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SE TO S THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN
QUICKLY SHIFT TO SW AND W AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
AROUND 15G25KTS, WITH W AND S MN NEARING 20G30KTS AT TIMES,
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
CEILINGS HAVE STARTED OUT GENERALLY IN VFR RANGE, THEN WILL DROP
TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, WITH WESTERN-
CENTRAL MN (THUS AXN-STC) LIKELY DROPPING TO IFR FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. SIMILARLY, WESTERN WI MAY HAVE IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT, THEN MORE SUSTAINED RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNRISE. AFTER A
SMALL LATE MORNING LULL, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
LIKELY BUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY. PREVAILING -SN LOOKS LIKELY AFTER SUNSET
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
DROP INTO IFR RANGE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT THEN REMAIN IN MVFR FOR
NEARLY THE ENTIRE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF DURATION. IFR CEILINGS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT ARE
CERTAINLY VIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-LAC
QUI PARLE-MARTIN-REDWOOD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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