813
FXUS63 KMPX 191735
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW..
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
EARLY THIS MORNING, SHOWERS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MN INTO WESTERN WI IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING
THROUGH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MOST OF IT COMING TO AN END PRIOR TO 9AM.
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ALEXANDRIA
AND ST. CLOUD AREAS LATE THIS MORNING, THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH
MANKATO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IMMEDIATELY AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.
THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO DROP
NEARLY DUE SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA, ADVANCING INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT, LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN ALOFT AND A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET STREAK WILL
SUPPORT LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANTICIPATING
THIS TO BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
THE WAVE SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY SATURDAY, WITH
CLEARING OCCURRING BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MUCH LIKE THE SET UP FROM THURSDAY, MODELS ARE MUCH TOO COLD WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY. 925 MB TEMPS OF +7 TO +11C WILL BRING READINGS BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MN AND 50S IN WI. INCREASED HIGHS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
THE FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR MONDAY BUT IT
SHOULD STILL BE A MILD DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS, EVEN COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO MIDWEEK
BEFORE RETURN FLOW RESUMES LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXITING TO THE FAR EAST EARLY. THEN VFR TREND
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA
WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS BECOMING
MORE WEST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL DRIVE AT LEAST A BAND OF -SHRA
SOUTHEAST CHANGING TO -SHSN MAINLY TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE SOME, BUT
STILL BELIEVE DECENT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN AFFECTING KRNH/KEAU.
WILL MENTION PROB30 OVER THE EASTERN AREA FOR NOW. MAY SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP TO THE EAST AS WELL WITH STRONG CAA PATTERN. STILL
SEE STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE LATER FROPA WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS
LIKELY.
KMSP...FROPA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO
30-35KTS, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND THEN SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ARRIVES 08Z-09Z WITH -SHRASN POSSIBLE. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS WITH FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NW
WINDS DEVELOPING WITH FROPA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WIND BECOMING S-SW 3-8KT IN THE EVENING.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 15G25KT.
MON...VFR. WIND SW BECOMING NW 10G20KT.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE
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