161
FXUS63 KMPX 040540
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1140 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY MORNINGS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY TRANSITIONS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN, SNOW, & POTENTIALLY FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY.
- CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
PLEASANT EARLY SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS & DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER, WE'LL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT &
MORNING HOURS BOTH DAYS AS MELTING SNOW DURING THE DAY COUPLED
WITH CALM WINDS & AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO PRIME CONDITIONS
FOR FOG. WHERE EXACTLY IS TOUGH TO SAY AS WE WILL HAVE PATCHES
OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL, BUT THE FOG THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE WEATHER REMAINS WARM, BUT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARDS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH IOWA. THE TRACK OF THE LOW & MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF & NORTH OF THE LOW TO CREATE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE'LL SEE AROUND
0.5-1" OF QPF THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN A
FEW WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS & EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY, THEN A RELATIVE LULL LATE
FRIDAY EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
WRAP- AROUND REGION BEHIND THE LOW SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL
LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY, & EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM BRING THE SHOWERS IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH WILL BE WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING, AS MODELS REMAIN MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN &
SNOW LOOKS MOST LIKELY, BUT WE COULD END UP SEEING A SWATH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD THE COLDEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY, OR EVEN
SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PROBABLY STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TIMING & TYPE AT THE MOMENT, BUT PLAN ON
RAIN FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME SORT OF COLD RAIN & WINTRY MIX
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DESPITE A RELATIVE COOL-DOWN SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, OUR
EARLY START TO SPRING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STAYS
NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER & ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN
THE 60S LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, & SUNDAY SHOWS SOME EARLY
POTENTIAL OF BEING A VERY WARM DAY AS THE AIFS ENSEMBLE
SUGGESTS ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 30F ABOVE NORMAL. WINTER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH HOWEVER, AS A LARGE
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
USHERS IN A PRONOUNCED STRETCH OF BELOW-NORMAL WEATHER. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SOUTH &
EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY AS WHEN THE COOLDOWN BEGINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE
STRATUS CAN KEEP THE FOG FORMATION DOWN INITIALLY, BUT
EXPECTING MOST SITES TO GO IFR/MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LATER WITH LOWER CIGS/VIS AND HANGS ON TO
IFR (AND SOME LIFR) INTO THE MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT.
KMSP...ADDED IN THE FOG MENTIONED ABOVE. HELD OFF ON IFR CONDITIONS
FOR A LITTLE LONGER THAN SURROUNDING SITES, BUT THAT MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED WITH THE 09Z AMD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR -RA BR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS, BCMG N LATE.
SAT...MVFR/IFR -RA/SN EARLY. VFR PM. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DYE
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