374
FXUS63 KMPX 280322
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
922 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPANDED
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR NARROW BAND
OF 6+ INCHES.
- COOL WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP AND A COUPLE CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
WELL AS THINGS GET CLOSER, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD A SOUTHERN SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY'S SNOW. WE STILL HAVE
THE HRRR STICKING OUT AS NORTHERN OUTLIER, THOUGH EVEN IT IS
DRIFTING SOUTH. AT THIS POINT, WE HAVE TO START MOVING THE
FORECAST ONE DIRECTION AND THAT DIRECTION WE'VE CHOSEN IS A
PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT (PLACEMENT) THAT'S SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
EURO-AIFS HAS (AND HAS HAD CONSISTENTLY FOR SEVERAL RUNS).
WE'VE REALLY STARTED TO FOCUS OUR QPF AND SNOW TO THE MN RIVER
VALLEY, WITH 3-5" OF SNOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE MN
RIVER TOWARD ROCHESTER. FOR THE HEADLINES, IT'S A BIT
QUESTIONABLE IF WE NEED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE
ADVISORY, BUT WE'VE LEFT THEM IN AS THAT NORTHERN TIER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE OTHER CHANGE FOR THE
FORECAST IS WITH TIMING. EVERYTHING HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
PRECIP, ESPECIALLY WITH HOW LONG IT LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, SO WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE ADVISORIES OUT IN TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
HOT DOG! IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY OUT THERE WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE 40S AND
50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LEADING TO SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, THOUGH
THE WORSE CONDITIONS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE WIND
SPEEDS ARE STRONGER. THINGS TURN MORE WINTRY PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ALREADY MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH IT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS STAY DRY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY... THE ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO OUR
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EVEN WITH THE EVENT BEING LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT, THERE IS
STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, SO LET'S UNPACK THAT.
OUR FORCING COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS
BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, AND LIKELY ENHANCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL SET UP
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (ON THE ORDER OF 5-10K FEET), PROMOTING
GREATER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (AROUND 20:1) AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES (AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE). WITH ALL OF THIS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A WELL-FORCED SYSTEM AND IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL
RATES, WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH AND
WEST. THIS EXPANSION ALSO TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE BIMODAL SPLIT
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH MANY OF THE HI-RES CAMS STAYING WELL
NORTH AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE HOLDING SOUTH. OUR FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THOSE TWO IDEAS (FAVORING THE LONGER CONSISTENCY OF THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE, BUT ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE HI-RES
MODELS WITH THEIR BETTER HANDLING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES WITH
THIS SYSTEM), AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EXPANSION. WE EXPECT A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES STRETCHING
PRIMARILY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY.
THIS FORECAST COULD SHIFT FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-94
CORRIDOR IF GLOBAL GUIDANCE TRENDS IN THAT DIRECTION. FOR THE
TWIN CITIES METRO, SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN. THERE IS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES
OR MORE AND A 5% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE.
ALSO OF NOTE, IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW STRIP OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWFALL (6+ INCHES) WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE BAND ITSELF.
THIS FEELS VERY REMINISCENT OF THE FEBRUARY 18TH STORM WHERE
THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER-END AMOUNTS HAS RAMPED UP QUICKLY, AND
WE WANT TO DO OUR BEST TO MESSAGE THIS. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE
VERY LIKELY WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS, SO THE DECISION ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE WILL VERY
LIKELY BE A SHORT- TERM ONE ONCE WE CAN SEE IF AND WHERE THAT
BAND IS SETTING UP. UNLIKE FEBRUARY 18TH, THIS WILL BE A
LIGHTER/FLUFFIER SNOWFALL WITH MINIMAL WIND. TIMING- WISE, THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY THE EVENING.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK... A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARMING THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE WEEK. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE
COMMON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. FOR
PRECIPITATION, A LIGHTER ROUND OF SNOW OR FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY, THOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR SOUTHERN MN OR A MORE
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SOME TIME LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD WITH THE SNOW BAND FOR
SATURDAY, THOUGH WE'RE STARTING TO SEE OUR NORTHERN OUTLIERS
LIKE THE HRRR AND RAP DRIFT BOTH SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR THESE TAFS, LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 18Z
GFS AND LAV FOR TIMING OF THE SNOW, WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSEST TO THE
CURRENT THINKING THAT A BAND OF 4-6" OF SNOW WILL BASICALLY COME
STRAIGHT DOWN THE MN RIVER AND IN TOWARD RST. THIS PUTS RWF/MKT
IN THE HEART OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW, AXN/STC/MSP IN THE
SNOW BANDS NORTHERN GRADIENT, WITH RNH AND EAU POSSIBLY
MISSING OUT ON SNOW COMPLETELY. FOR WINDS, THEY WILL REMAIN
GUSTY FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF, BUT FOR SATURDAY WILL
COME IN UNDER 10 KTS, SO WE WON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT BLOWING
SNOW WITH THE FALLING SNOW. CIG REDUCTIONS THIS PERIOD WILL
FOLLOW SNOW TRENDS PRETTY CLOSE, SO WE WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE
SNOW ARRIVES.
KMSP...WE'RE LEANING HEAVILY INTO SOMETHING LIKE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WHERE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW (4-6") FALLS MORE OR LESS
ALONG THE MN RIVER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MSP. THIS PUTS MSP WITHIN
THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE SNOW, WITH 1-2" EXPECTED. BIGGEST
CHANGE WE'VE SEE WITH MODELS 18Z AND LATER IS THE SNOW IS COMING
IN LATER AND LINGERING LONGER. SO AS OPPOSED TO A LATE
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING THING, THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A MID-LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SNOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE TO SE 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
TUE...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NE 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
BLUE EARTH-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-LE
SUEUR-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
PEPIN-PIERCE.
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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