043
FXUS63 KMPX 070815
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARRIVES BY LATE EVENING,
LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS,
WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN CENTRAL MN.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES AFTER
TOMORROW, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS OF 245AM, WITH THE ONLY REAL
STORM TO SPEAK OF IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE LINE
HAS LARGELY CRUMBLED INTO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHOUT ANY
NOTABLE UPDRAFTS, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE AS IT
FURTHER WEAKENS HEADING SOUTH INTO IOWA. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
STILL PRESENT ON THE ORDER OF 30-40MPH WITHIN THE SHOWERS, FALLING
BACK AS IT MOVES OUT THIS MORNING. WE QUICKLY TRANSITION AWAY FROM
THE MORNING ROUND OF STORMS TO ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING TODAY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKING TO BE WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINES WITH A SCREAMING 850MB LLJ
AROUND 00Z TO FORM CLUSTERS OF STORMS WHERE ND/SD/MN MEET. A SURFACE
LOW SPINNING UP WILL ALSO PRODUCE A SUBTLE THERMAL BOUNDARY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA, THE POSITION OF WHICH WILL LIKELY DICTATE
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PWATS ARE WITHIN THE
TOP 99TH PERCENTILE WITHIN THE NAEFS OVER WESTERN MN AT 06Z,
SHOWCASING THE ROBUST WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA THE LLJ. AREAS OF
FLOODING ARE PROBABLE DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECEIVED
FROM TONIGHT'S ROUND OF STORMS, AND A SHORT-RANGE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED AHEAD OF TIME AS WE SEE GUIDANCE COME TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE STORMS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM WESTERN MN
SHOWCASE 750-1500 J/KG MUCAPE, LIKELY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
SIGNIFICANT WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS FROM THE LLJ. TIME OF DAY ALSO
PLAYS A FACTOR, GIVEN THE BEST FORCING ARRIVES AFTER 00Z AND LASTS
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL
NATURE, STRONG WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT, WITH HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK AS LCLS WILL BE BELOW
1000FT WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND A VEERING PROFILE
MAKING FOR A DECENTLY CURVED HODOGRAPH. OVERALL THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME SEVERE STORMS AND THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THE
COVERAGE ENDS UP, AND IF COMPETING FACTORS SUCH AS THE HIGH PWATS
CUTS INTO HAIL PRODUCTION OR THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING KEEPS STORMS FROM
BEING SURFACE BASED.
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARDS
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED STORMS
FORMING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS THAT GET HIT BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING, WITH HREF PMM VALUES EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA HOVERING NEAR THE BORDER OF THE
FGF/DLH/MPX CWAS. ENSEMBLE MAX VALUES OF NEAR 5-6'' HIGHLIGHTS JUST
HOW ANOMALOUS THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS
WITHIN THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FINAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, LEAVING US DRYING OUT
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPART, THE FORECAST FOCUS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SIGNIFICANT HEAT DOME BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. NAEFS FORECAST
VALUES FOR 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MAXED OUT OR NEVER BEFORE SEEN, WITH
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHING OUT 600DAM HEIGHTS BY MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THE AIFS GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD TEND AWAY FROM THE MOST ANOMALOUS
FORECAST SHOWS OVER 594DAM HEIGHTS, WITH THE POSITION FOR THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE FAVORING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY
PICKING UP ON THE SIGNIFICANT HEAT LIKELY ARRIVING WITH THIS HEAT
DOME, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOWCASING HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS AT MSP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR A FEW DAYS
AROUND 80. WHILE THIS IS TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE, IT SHOWS
JUST HOW SIGNIFICANT THE COMING HEAT WILL BE. WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, THE LOWEST FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE TWIN CITIES ON
TUESDAY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, SO SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS ALL BUT
CERTAIN EVEN AT THIS TIME SCALE. WE WILL HAVE FAR MORE TO SHARE AS
WE GET A BIT CLOSER, BUT EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF CHATTER ABOUT THE
INCOMING HEAT IN THE DAYS TO COME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AS EXPECTED, THE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN BACK
CLOSER TO SUNSET IS NOW RAPIDLY FALLING APART AND ONLY SOME
SPRINKLES AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR AS EAU
AND MKT. SEE NO REASON FOR THE DECREASING TREND NOT TO CONTINUE
WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE LACK OF A
LLJ TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN WE'RE WATCHING
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG OVER CENTRAL MN AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT. FROM THE HREF PERSPECTIVE, IT'S AXN UP TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD THAT WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOP, SO THAT WAS THE ONE PLACE WE GOT A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE STRATUS POTENTIAL. FOR TUESDAY, WE'LL HAVE A WEAK
BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. YOU
CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S THE 00Z TO 04Z WINDOW WHERE WE
SHOULD START SEEING WEST CENTRAL MN LIGHT UP WITH CONVECTION,
WHICH MEANS DURING THIS PERIOD, IT'S AXN THAT HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF TS WITH THIS NEXT ROUND, SINCE MOST OF THE OTHER
TERMINALS WILL GET IN ON THE ACTION AFTER 6Z WED.
KMSP...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH THE
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH, SO LEFT THE TS MENTION OUT FOR
THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ALL OF TUESDAY.
THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL SEE THE RETURN OF TS
POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE 6 HOURS, BUT STILL QUESTIONABLE
IF MSP WILL BE IN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS, OR IF WE'LL BE
IN THE BLEACHERS WATCHING STORMS RAKE THE NORTH METRO.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA LIKELY, CHC IFR/-TSRA. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
THU...MVFR CHC IFR CIGS IN MRNG. VFR AFTN. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...MPG
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