762
FXUS63 KMPX 300803
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE;LE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- HOT & HUMID AGAIN TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
95-100 F ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 50-60 MPH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARDS OUT NOR NORTHWEST IOWA. A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LIES AHEAD OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SO IT
SHOW NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA & INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO & WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
50-60 MPH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WHILE IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTH & EAST THAT THREAT MAY CONTINUE.
REGARDLESS, GUSTY WINDS OF AT LEAST 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN ADDITIONAL TO BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARDS AT OVER 50 MPH, MEANING IT'LL REACH THE I-90
CORRIDOR THROUGH 3-4 AM, THE TWIN CITIES & I-35 BY 5-6 AM, &
INTO WESTERN WI THROUGH 6-8 AM.
THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECAYING & OUT OF OUR AREA BY
8-9 AM, & THEN THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING & INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH-RESOLUTIION
MODELS THAT ARE HANDLING THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX STILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN MEANING OUR HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
TRACK. ANOTHER TREND TO WATCH WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO BUBBLE UP IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. NOTABLE
IS THAT THE HIGH-RESOLUTIIN MODELS THAT HANDLE THE MORNING
CONVECTION ARE LESS-ROBUST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, MEANING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE SETTING UP
FARTHER TO OUR EAST OVER CENTRAL & EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX, LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD & PERSIST LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING, MEANING TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE COOLER
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. IT'L STILL BE MUGGY,
BUT A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT. LOOKING AHEAD -
IT'LL BE MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
MUGGY CONDITIONS & MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM & HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TEMPERATURES DO CONTINUE TO LOOK COOLER THAN WE WERE THINKING A
FEW DAYS AGO, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AS OPPOSED TO
90S. THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO TREND
LOWER, BUT CONTINUE TO TAKE NECESSARY COOLING ACTIONS AS NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS. SCT -TSRA IS SEEN ON RADAR FOR
EAU WITH INSTANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 07Z. SKIES REMAIN
BKN TO OVC AT 5-10 KFT WITH MVFR (BKN AT 2-4 KFT) FOR STC. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SSW AT 8-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING 5-10 KNOTS BY 10Z.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF TSRA, OR MCS-
LIKE FEATURE MOVING NE OUT OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA BEFORE MOVING
INTO MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING. PROB30S REMAIN IN TAFS FOR
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AXN AND STC. IF THIS LINE OF TSRA MAINTAINS
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY DROP TO IFR TO
MVFR. SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IF NEEDED. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY DEPARTING THE AREA BY 12-13Z WITH BKN-OVC SKIES IN
IT'S WAKE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FEW
AT 5-10 KFT AND FEW TO SCT AT 20-25 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE S/SSW AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TIMEFRAME. HIGH RES
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF TSRA OR MCS-LIKE
FEATURE MOVING NE OUT OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA BEFORE ENTERING
MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING. PROB30S FOR TSRA REMAIN IN THE
TAF. IF SAID LINE OF TSRA MOVES INTO THE METRO VICINITY, FLIGHT
CATEGORIES MAY BECOME IFR TO MVFR BY 10Z. THIS IS SOMETHING WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING IN THE COMING HOURS AND TAF WILL BE
AMENDED IF NEEDED. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DEPARTING
THE METRO AREA BY 12Z WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES IN IT'S WAKE. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WITH FEW AT 5-10 KFT AND FEW-SCT
AT 20-25 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SW AT 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WIND SW 8-13G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA. S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR
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