809
FXUS63 KMPX 061904
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
204 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A FEW BREEZY DAYS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, SPAWNING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TEMPERATURES LOOK MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART, TDS ARE STILL INTO THE 50S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT , BUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID 80S, WE'RE SEEING SOME RH
VALUES FALL BELOW 30%. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM AND DRY FORECAST. TOMORROW WILL
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE RH VALUES FALL
INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE. DID NUDGE DOWN TDS A LITTLE, BUT THEY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER DOWN WHICH COULD BRING THOSE
READINGS INTO THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY.
ADDITIONALLY, NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, BUT STILL RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. MOISTURE
RETURNS FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN. THERE'S A NON-ZERO
CHANCE THAT FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER DAY TO WATCH GIVEN THIS AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. THANKFULLY, WE'LL HAVE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT'S CURRENTLY IN THERE. ANOTHER THING TO
CONSIDER IS WHAT MAY HAPPEN WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WHAT THAT WOULD DO TO OUR MOISTURE
RETURN. THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH THE TIMING OF A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. POPS AND
QPF HAVE DECREASED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO, BUT THIS STILL LOOKS
TO BE OUR BEST (AND LIKELY ONLY) CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 50S AND 60S
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, BUT A FEW MORE WARM DAYS BEYOND THIS
PERIOD ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS.
KAXN HAS ALREADY STARTED THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
OTHER MINNESOTA TERMINALS FOLLOWING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
FROPA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS, BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BEFORE A SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL START TO TICK UP BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND WNW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS BECOMING SE.
SAT...VFR. WIND SSW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...DYE
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