189
FXUS63 KMPX 262327
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG/FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A VERY WARM SATURDAY.
- COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A WINTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY
MIX AND THEN EVENTUALLY SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI. STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
- COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
SOME PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE SKY ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN, BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED SOCKED IN
WITH LOW STRATUS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ALSO STILL REMAIN INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVEN ACQ, OWA, AND AEL DOWN TO 1/2, 1/4, AND
LESS THAN 1/4 MILE, RESPECTIVELY. EXPECTING CLOUDS AND FOG TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG SEEMING MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MN. HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY YET AS WOULD LIKE TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW FOG
EVOLVES. HOWEVER, DID ISSUE A SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. FREEZING FOG SHOULD ALSO
BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 32 F. BE
PREPARED FOR SLICK CONDITIONS AND CAR WINDSHIELDS ACCUMULATING A
GLAZE OF ICE WHILE DRIVING. ANOTHER SOUPY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE SATURDAY AS WAA DRIVES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE
PERHAPS A 50 CAN OCCUR ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CONTINUED LOW
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS OUR
MELTING SNOWPACK MOISTENS THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN
FACT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI SATURDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT, TRAILING A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
OVER THE MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME PREVALENT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ONGOING DRIZZLE WILL TURN INTO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS MOST LIKELY OVER OUR MN
COUNTIES. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES. THIS
WILL CAUSE SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
PROLONGED SNOWFALL LOOKING MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKING TO
OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD THEN
BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER BUT VERY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS A VERY DEEP DGZ RESULTS FROM THE COOLING THERMAL
PROFILE. FROM THE DAY SHIFT GUIDANCE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASE AS
ONE GOES EAST, WITH EXTREME EASTERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO SEE 3-5" OF SNOW WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED AREAS
APPROACHING 6". SHOULD NOTE THAT A NUMBER OF MODELS (NAMELY THE GFS
AND MPAS VERSIONS) ARE PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE QPF COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS, WHICH RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER FORECAST SNOWFALL.
HAVE OPTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THESE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A MORE
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT HAVE TAKEN A MENTAL NOTE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GREATLY
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
TIGHTENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. FURTHER INCREASING OF WINDS
AND GUSTS MAY BE NEEDED, PARTICULARLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE
EPS MEAN HAS GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH FOR MSP. THINKING GUSTS OF 35-
45+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET FOR THIS
WINTER SYSTEM, STRONGLY ANTICIPATE HEADLINES TO OCCUR IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL FUNNEL MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY, HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. CERTAINLY NOT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WE'VE EXPERIENCED BUT A REMINDER THAT IT IS STILL WINTER AFTER OUR
BRIEF TIME IN MARCH THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE 18Z TAF WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS WITH
INTERMITTENT LIFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR MKT/RWF DUE TO 1/4SM
VISIBILITY, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER VISIBILITY FOR THE MORE
NORTHERN SITES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE AS CIGS/VIS
LIFT AFTER 18Z, BUT THEN RETURN TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH FURTHER VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AND CIGS BELOW
1000FT. WINDS INCREASE FROM 150-180 AFTER 12Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND
10KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY
ADVECT FURTHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS SHOULD NOT DIMINISH
PREVAILING BR/CIGS.
KMSP...MAJORITY IFR FOR THE PERIOD WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF LIFR,
HOWEVER THE LOWER VISIBILITY/CIGS WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH
TOWARDS MKT. A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIFTING AND MVFR IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ROUGHLY 00-02Z, AFTER WHICH IFR RETURNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 15-20G30 KTS.
MON...MVFR BCMG VFR. WIND NW 15-25G30-35 KTS.
TUE...MVFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...TDH
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