599
FXUS63 KMPX 231122
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
522 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN A SHOT OF COLDER AIR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY EVENING &
NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR A SLICK COMMUTE FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS HAVE
LED TO COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE NUDGED OUR
LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARD A COMBINATION OF HI-RES GUIDANCE & NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. DO NOT WORRY THOUGH
OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S WHICH IS WHERE OUR
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. THE
THEME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS WARMTH. OUR HIGH & LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH WILL CAUSE OUR SNOW
PACK TO MELT. I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF ANY SNOW COVER MAKES IT TO
FRIDAY, BUT STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.
TODAY'S HIGH WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW 30S. THERE WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES & BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THAN THE LOW
30S. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS
SLIDES ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER AND DOESN'T REALLY DIG INTO THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW INTENSE OUR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TODAY
BUT IT SHOULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES FROM OVERACHIEVING BY TOO MUCH.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE IN SW MN. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TREK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE RETURNING TO
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S. SO WILL WE MANAGE TO
GET A WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR? WELL THAT WILL DEPEND ON IF WE'RE
ABLE TO HOLD ONTO OUR SNOW PACK TODAY & WEDNESDAY. IF WE'RE ABLE TO
HOLD ON TO AT LEAST 1" THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE - I'D LIKE OUR CHANCES.
I THINK SOME LOCATIONS WILL MANAGE TO HOLD ON TO SOME SNOW WHILE
OTHERS WILL LOSE MOST OF IT BEFORE THE HOLIDAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS THAT WILL ALLOW
BETTER MOISTURE AIR ADVECTION TO RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT & COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
& EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH BY
FRIDAY SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A WARM NOSE THAT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT
DOESN'T TAKE MUCH FREEZING RAIN TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
TRAVEL FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30 TO
LOWER 40S. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL HAVE A MORE
IMPRESSIVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ALONG THE ND/CAN BORDER AND TOWARD HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO OUR C MN COUNTIES - IF ANY
PRECIP OCCURS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO
CANADA WHILE A BROAD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP
SOME IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE DIVES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT INTO THE TEENS WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ARE NOT GREAT SINCE THE BETTER FORCING IS OFF TO THE NORTH
WITH THE SFC LOW. UNFORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS SHOULD SLIDE EAST & USHER IN MILDER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
IT'S INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE'LL STAY RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE END
OF THE YEAR WITH NO SIGNAL FOR ANY LARGER, MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS IN
SIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKY VFR FOR MOST. A STRATUS
DECK IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA AND IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ONLY AXN HAS SEEN
IMPACTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (VARIES BASED ON TAF SITE). WINDS START LIGHT,
BUT PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
KMSP...CLEAR SKY TO START THE DAY, BUT EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
MVFR MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...VFR. WIND SE 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR, CHC MVFR/IFR EARLY. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC
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