994  
FXUS63 KMPX 110502  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1102 PM CST MON FEB 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MUCH COLDER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 
- LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
TONIGHT.  
 
- MORE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND LATE FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON FEB 10 2025  
 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN THIS MORNING, LIKELY ENVELOPING THE REST OF  
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN FALLING  
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND IS JUST STARTING TO SPREAD EAST NEAR I-90  
IN OUR SOUTHERN MN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD  
EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE  
SEEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTH-METRO BUT THE MAJORITY SHOULD REMAIN  
NEAR I-90 WHERE 1-2" OF LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW AND  
CLOUD COVER ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING TONIGHT AS  
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR CAA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE  
FRIGID WITH SOUTHERN MN DROPPING TO NEAR -10 WHILE CENTRAL MN IS IN  
THE LOWER -20S. WITH SUCH COLD AIR FORECAST, IT WILL NOT BE HARD TO  
GET HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS. WIND  
CHILLS OF AT LEAST -20 ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH VALUES  
FALLING INTO THE -30S IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. WE HAVE ADDED A  
MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN INTO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY  
THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID-TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE TWIN  
CITIES IS NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.  
 
THIS COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE BRISK, REACHING ONLY -5 TO 5  
BEFORE THE ENTIRE AREA FALLS BELOW ZERO AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW'S ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -5 TO  
THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. (POTENTIALLY LOWER, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT IF CLEARER SKIES CAN AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OUR  
NEW SNOWPACK.) THANKFULLY, WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT/CALM SO  
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE MUCH WORSE THAN THE TEMPERATURE.  
HIGHS DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS  
TO LOWER TEENS.  
 
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE DURING WEDNESDAY, AS GUIDANCE  
MOSTLY AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE  
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT MODELS  
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP  
SHIELD MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WI. HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED  
IN SOUTHEASTERN MN WHERE VALUES RISE TO 70-85%. THERE IS THE CHANCE  
THAT FORECAST MODELS ARE BEING TOO BULLISH WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE  
PRECIP SHIELD. A LESSER AREA COULD OCCUR DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM  
ROBBING MOISTURE AS IT TRIES TO TRAVEL NORTH. STILL, NAM AND GFS  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR I-90 DO SHOW A SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST  
SATURATION WITHIN A DEEP DGZ TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW.  
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT THE  
POSSIBILITY FOR 1-2" IS PRESENT.  
 
TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT DURING FRIDAY AS FORECAST MODELS SHOW WEAK  
WAA OCCURRING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO WHEN WE HAVE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW, AS  
MODELS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF QPF OVER MUCH OF MN AND WI WITHIN  
THE WAA AND WEAK 850 HPA CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER, THIS CYCLOGENESIS  
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW IS FAVORED TO  
GET GOING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER SATURDAY. IT APPEARS MORE  
PROBABLE THAT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT'S SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK HIT  
OF A COUPLE OF INCHES BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AND MOVES EAST. FOR THE  
WEEKEND, WE RETURN TO WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES; SIMILAR TO  
WHAT WE SAW MID-WEEK. WE ALSO LOOK TO BE DRY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON FEB 10 2025  
 
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN  
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS  
INCREASE AGAIN. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 
KMSP...NO CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN LATE. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS.  
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.  
FRI...MVFR. CHC -SN/IFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.  
 
 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-BLUE  
EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-ISANTI-  
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-  
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-  
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-  
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.  
WI...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CTG  
AVIATION...BORGHOFF  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab MN Page
The Nexlab WI Page
Main Text Page