724
FXUS63 KMPX 092004
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET, MILD, AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW.
- SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY WEEKEND. ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T LOOKING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.
A FEW CLOUDS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SKY COVER REMAINS
MINIMAL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS THE ATTRIBUTING FACTOR TO
TODAY AND TOMORROW'S LIGHT WINDS A CLEAR SKIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DUE TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RAISE OUR TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 80S IN WESTERN MN AND LOWER 80S IN WEST CENTRAL WI
TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 60S, CREATING MILDLY
MUGGY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH 70 DEWPOINTS NOT
UNREASONABLE IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN
LOW-LYING AREAS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IMPACTS
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH DRY TOMORROW, WITH
A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK END ASSOCIATED
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%)
FOR RAIN THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES (30-40%) FOR LARGER COVERAGE RAIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SAME PATTERN REPEATS
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MEDIOCRE POPS (30-40%) IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND A NARROW AREA
OF BAROCLINICITY, THESE EVENTS COULD BE EASILY MISSED AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. DESPITE ALL OF THESE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN, LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT WEEK, WITH TOTAL QPF
VALUES OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS
NEXT TO ZERO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL ON A FEW HI-RES WEATHER
MODELS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN WI (KRNH AND KEAU) BUT I'VE OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE THEIR
TAFS FOR NOW. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND E 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WIND S 10-15KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WIND S 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PEM
AVIATION...BPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page