962
FXUS63 KMPX 021105
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN & SLEET IMPACTS CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- SNOW CONTINUES INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THIS MORNING:
OUR WINTRY SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH WEST- CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AS OF 4 AM, ICE HAS BEEN ACCRETING ON GRASSY AREAS &
ELEVATED SURFACES/OBJECTS, BUT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE ROADS ICY
OUTSIDE OF WESTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE BY SUNRISE
AS AIR TEMPERATURES & ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP
AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS (ON ELEVATED SURFACES) OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH
CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS EAT-CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN, WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 0.3-0.5" STILL POSSIBLE WHERE
WE HAVE THE ICE STORM WARNING TOWARDS EAU CLAIRE. WE HAVE
LOWERED ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AS THE
FREEZING RAIN ONSET WAS DELAYED UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO
HAVE DOWNGRADED SEVERAL COUNTIES TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR LIGHTER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
THE WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 AM & 10 AM
WHEN AIR & SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR COLDEST, BUT
SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD START WARMING THE ROADS BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID-MORNING. ICE ACCRETIONS COULD STILL CONTINUE
UNTIL NOON ON TREES & OTHER ELEVATED OBJECTS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON:
AREAS WITH THE WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING CHANGE
OVER TO A COLD RAIN, WITH ISOLATED ICE STORM IMPACTS FROM FALLEN
TREE LIMBS & POWER OUTAGES STILL POSSIBLE WHERE WE'RE EXPECTING
THE HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE
SNOW BEGINS TO WRAP UP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TOTALLY 2-4".
TONIGHT: WE'LL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING DRY TONIGHT & OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN & SNOW
BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
FRIDAY:
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF MINNESOTA &
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SECOND ROUND LOOKS TO BE A
CLEANER TRANSITION BETWEEN RAIN & SNOW, BUT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
& SLEET IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WEST-CENTRL
MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DON'T REALLY BEGIN UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, ALL OTHER LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT:
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING, WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LIKELY PRESENT TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY
STRING WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION & LOW FREEZING LEVELS. A DRY
SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER THE SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NOR PRECIPITATION THE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH, THE RAIN CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. STILL
UNCERTAIN WHERE EXACTLY THE RIAN-SNOW LINE WILL SET UP, BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT IT ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL DEVELOP WHERE A REGION OF BANDED
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, GENERALLY BETWEEN BRAINERD &
ST. CLOUD.
SATURDAY:
THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW EXPECTED TO END ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4-6" ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIER REGION OF BANDED SNOW,
WHILE LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6" WITHIN THE SNOW BAND.
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS & SURFACES WILL LIKELY BE NEGLIGIBLE
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION OF HEAVIEST BANDED SNOWFALL OWNING TO THE
FACT THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING PEAK SOLAR
INSOLATION SATURDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD:
WE QUIET DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS AFTER THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
TRANSIENT WAVES COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT SHOULD BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FROM THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING AS OUR
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
AT AXN AND STC WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL SEE A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL TO NEAR
700 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES HOVERING NEAR 2 MILES UNTIL
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO TAPER OFF LEADING TO VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENT EARLY THIS EVENING. DID ADD TEMPOS AT AXN AND STC
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR REDUCTIONS TO LIFR.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS, NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL FLIRT WITH LIFR. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOW TO UNDER 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING, TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.
KMSP...EXPECTING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM 13-22Z TODAY WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. RATES COULD REACH 0.1" PER HOUR DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES UNTIL PRECIP
ENDS AROUND 02Z FRIDAY. THEN, IFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO
20-25 KNOTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10
KNOTS ALSO LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR CHC IFR. -RASN IN EVENING. WIND ENE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS. -RASN IN MORNING. WIND NW 10-20G30 KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ANOKA-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHISAGO-ISANTI-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR CARVER-DAKOTA-
GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BARRON-DUNN-
PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG
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