759
FXUS63 KMPX 252342
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE WARM THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE.
- DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
A WARM AND SUNNY MEMORIAL DAY HAS PLAYED OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND EVEN A FEW 90S ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OTHER THAN A FEW
DIURNAL CU ACROSS S MN AND CIRRUS ACROSS C MN. IT WILL REMAIN A
PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH NO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING WHEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. HIRES GUIDANCE BUILDS IN 1500-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE
OVERHEAD THAT'LL REMAIN CAPPED UNDER RISING HEIGHTS UNTIL THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT IS SW MN AND NW IA BUT THERE WILL BE A
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IS ABLE TO FORM GIVEN
IT'S A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS (INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS AND MODEST AT BEST SHEAR.) OVERALL, CONFIDENCE ISN'T TOO
HIGH FOR WHERE THEY DEVELOP, WHICH HAS LED THE POP FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON THE LOWER END (20-40S).
WE'LL SEE ANY STORMS DISSIPATE BY MID TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFF AS THEY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO POOL INTO THE MID 60S AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL POSE ANOTHER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS UNDER
AMPLE INSTABILITY, BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. UPDRAFTS WILL GO UP
QUICKLY AND COLLAPSE JUST AS QUICKLY IN A PULSE THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT. ANY COLLAPSING DOWNDRAFT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ONCE AGAIN WILL REQUIRE US TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY STORMS
TUESDAY PM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT'LL BE CONFINED TO THE MN RIVER VALLEY AND I-90
CORRIDOR AS SLIGHTLY COOLER & DRIER AIR SETTLES IN ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL MN AND W WI.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
REVEALS A RATHER PLEASANT AND BENIGN FORECAST. THE CULPRIT WILL BE
THE EXPANSIVE HUDSON BAY HIGH THAT WILL ACT TO SUPPLY US WITH
DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR VIA EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALOFT, AN
OMEGA BLOCK WILL KEEP THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FROM EVOLVING MUCH OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. BLOCKING PATTERNS LIKE THIS ARE HISTORICALLY SLOWER
TO BREAK DOWN THAN WHAT GUIDANCE MAY OFFER IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG
RANGE TIME FRAME. THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE WE SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SET UP AS WE GET INTO SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. THIS WOULD ALLOW US
TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND SUPPORT BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
QUIET THIS EVENING, BUT A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN A ROUND OF
SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING & MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH MID-MORNING. MKT & RWF HAS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, & POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER, OUT OF THESE
SHOWERS, BUT THEY MAY REACH AS FAR AS STC OR MSP BY 15-6Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS BY MI-
D AFTERNOON, WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS LIKELY
GENERATING MORE SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THESE CELLS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE SMALL & ANY MVFR VIS/
LIGHTNING IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF, BUT CONFIDENCE ON JUST WHEN THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING BECOME LIGHTER &
MORE VARIABLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON & EVENING, BUT OUTFLOW
FROM SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF
VARIABLE, OR EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON & EVENING.
KMSP...CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AROUND
15-16Z, BUT THE CHANCES FOR BRIEF -SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS LOOKS
HIGHEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE ON JUST WHEN REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE TAF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO EASTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING, BUT EASTERLY WINDS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18-20Z
DEPENDING ON THE IMPACTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC AFTN -TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA
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