849
FXUS63 KMPX 161146
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY MILD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR OUR
AREA, THAT GENERALLY MEANS RAIN SOUTH, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
A WINTRY MIX/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
A (MOSTLY) QUIET NIGHT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST, BUT FOR THOSE IN
NORTHERN MILLE LACS AND KANABEC COUNTY... YOUR EARS DID NOT
DECEIVE YOU! A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVERHEAD AND WE OBSERVED
MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES VIA THE GOES GLM. THAT WASN'T ON MY
BINGO CARD FOR FEBRUARY 16TH IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA BUT HERE WE
ARE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM REMAIN 15+ DEGREES ABOVE
OUR NORMAL EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR 2/16 (28F AT MSP).
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S BY DAYBREAK AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S THIS AFTERNOON. OUR STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A POTENT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE WARM & WET NORTHERN SOLUTION APPEARS STRONGLY FAVORED AT
THIS POINT AS THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL LOW MOVE OUT OF NODAK AND
TREK ACROSS CENTRAL MN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS TRACK
PUTS AREAS CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER IN LINE TO SEE A LARGE
AMOUNT OF QPF AS PWATS OF 300% OF NORMAL FEED INTO AN IMPRESSIVE
DEFORMATION BAND THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FAVORS HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA - LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW - WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WILL
SEE OUR TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH HIRES & GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY FOR MID-FEBRUARY AND WILL SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE BULK OF OUR QPF (0.10" TO 0.25") AS THE DRY SLOT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY OUTSIDE OF OUR NORTHERN MOST TIER IN
C MN. A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MN AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL END UP ON
WEDNESDAY. AI GUIDANCE REMAINS MOST OPTIMISTIC FOR SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS W & C MN IN THE WRAP AROUND WHILE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE FGF/DLH FORECAST AREAS IN N MN. THE
ECMWF AIFS SOLUTION IS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING AS IT RESEMBLES
A SIMILAR TYPE SYSTEM FROM JANUARY OF 2023 WHERE THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND SPINS OVER THE AREA FOR 24-48 HOURS.
THIS LED TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BEHIND THE
INITIAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE AIFS PLACES 1-3" ACROSS W & C
MN WHILE A FEW FLAKES FALL IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL REMAINS ALONG & NORTH OF THE LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO
PINE CITY, WHERE 1 TO 3" APPEAR POSSIBLE. I WOULDN'T RULE OUT A
DUSTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TWIN CITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 20S BY THE WEEKEND.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, SPECIFICALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
24 HOURS AGO, BUT MEANINGFUL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND INTERACTS WITH THE CLOSED OFF TROUGH FROM THE EARLIER WEEK
SYSTEM THAT IS STALLED OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN N MN.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL PREVENT IT'S DEPARTURE AND THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING WHAT EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THE GFS REMAINS SOUTH WITH A WEAKER, OPEN WAVE AT 500MB
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
SOUTHERN 1/3 OF MN AND INTO WESTERN WI THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE 00Z ICON RESEMBLES YESTERDAY'S 00Z ECMWF WITH A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS FROM DES MOINES TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI. THIS
PLACES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS SOLUTION ISN'T OFF THE TABLE - BUT I SUSPECT
REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/EPS SOLUTION WITH A GLANCING BLOW
FOR THE TWIN CITIES AND HEAVIER PRECIP OVER S/SE MN & W WI. THERE
SHOULD BE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY UNTIL WE SEE EXACTLY WHAT THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM DOES AND HOW STRONG THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
BECOMES IN RESPONSE. FOR NOW, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING, WITH THE WINDS VEERING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANTECEDENT DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP CIGS VFR THIS PERIOD, WITH LOWER CIGS AND
-SHRA CHANCES SHOWING UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...WE COULD SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
RIGHT NOW MVFR CIG CHANCES LOOK BETTER AFTER THIS PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY LATE WITH SLGT CHC TS. WIND E
10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RASN. WIND W 10-20 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG
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