981
FXUS63 KMPX 230544
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY. LOW CHANCES
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK, THEN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
IT'S ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE KIND OF WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S, STILL TOLERABLE DEWPOINTS,
AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN BUILDING TO THE WEST THOUGH IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. IT IS THIS
MONTANA TROUGH THAT WILL BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A LEAD SHORTWAVE, COMBINED WITH WAA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN MN NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. WE'LL SEE A PLUME OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE
VALUES TO BUILD TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH PEAK HEATING TUESDAY. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL BE OCCURRING BENEATH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR, SO AN
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HREF
UH PLOTS SHOW SOME CYCLONIC AND ANTI-CYCLONIC TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN
MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THESE COME WITH FAIRLY BENIGN UPDRAFT
STRENGTH THANKS TO THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES. THE MARGINAL RISK FROM
THE SPC STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. A COUPLE OF FEISTIER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL, THOUGH WE WOULD ALSO SAY A
MARGINAL WIND THREAT EXISTS, ALONG WITH PERHAPS A VERY LOW TORNADO
POTENTIAL AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LOWER LCLS WITH
THOSE LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT QPF, HREF LPMM SHOWS A FEW
POCKETS OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BEING POSSIBLE, BUT THOSE AMOUNTS
LOOK SPOTTY AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. IN THE END, THIS JUST LOOKS
LIKE A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTIVE EVENT FOR THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL PUT A ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WI. AS A RESULT,
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, THOUGH DISORGANIZED DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY,
THE NBM CAME IN DRY, THOUGH YOU CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SAME AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY'S THREAT, WITH
SOME CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING. HOWEVER, THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE YET
ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HOWEVER, FOR THE CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE, THE DAYS FOR THEIR KIND OF WEATHER LOOKS NUMBERED...
FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN SHIFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE
RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN
PARTICULAR. AN AT LEAST SMALL THUNDERSTORM RISK WITH WAA WILL START
ON FRIDAY, BUT IT'S REALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT THE
EPS HIGHLIGHTS FOR BEING RATHER ACTIVE FOR THE MPX AREA. IN
PARTICULAR, MONDAY WOULD BE DAY TO CIRCLE FOR A POTENTIAL ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OVER HALF THE EPS MEMBERS SHOW HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH. IN ADDITION, WXNEXT2 MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE FROM NCAR
HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROUBLE ON MONDAY AS WELL. WE HAVE A
LONG WAYS TO GO, BUT THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES ARE AT LEAST POINTING
AT MONDAY AS BEING A DAY TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AS WE WORK
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH WESTERN MN MID MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN THE SHOWERS. TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30S, BUT THE CHANCE EXISTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS, THERE MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TONIGHT.
KMSP...SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF TS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY LATE EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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