570
FXUS63 KMPX 240413
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER NORTHWESTERN KS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING
MAINLY EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, KEEPING ANY RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
SUNDAY, WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. STILL EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING CENTRAL MN, BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE. HIGHS WILL
BE REACHED FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON AND COOLER AIR, BOLSTERED BY LAKE SUPERIOR, REACHES
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD-IN ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. H850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN -2C AND -5C
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO DESPITE ADEQUATE MIXING, HIGHS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE LOWER 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND WAA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 50.
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WAA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEW DEW POINTS TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
MN AND WI LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MN, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND DEEPEN. THIS SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
SOUTHERN MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI ON FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS SHOW
VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MN ON FRIDAY MORNING WHEREAS THE 23.00 ECMWF
HAS IT TRAVELING SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THE ECMWF
SOLUTION SUGGESTS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHWESTERN
MN TO WEST CENTRAL MN ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE
FOR SNOW IN WESTERN WI ON EARLY SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE
SOLUTIONS, COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES, IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
TONIGHT. WE'LL REMAIN VFR AS WELL UNTIL WE GET INTO THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF CLOUD COVER
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL MN LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO 3 OR 4 HOURS OR SO WHERE WE
COULD SEE CIGS DROP DOWN INTO THE 2K TO 4K FOOT RANGE. FOLLOWED
THE LAV IDEA FOR TIMING. BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS, WE'LL GO SKC
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS DOWN TO 2K FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 19Z AND 22Z. OTHERWISE, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND E 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SSW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS LATE. WIND S 15-20G30KT.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...MPG
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