038
FXUS63 KMPX 162326
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
526 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS, & EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY - MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN..
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WE'VE SEEN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY (IN MID-FEBRUARY) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT DRIER
AIR MEANS IT SHOULD MAINLY BE LIMITED TO RIVER VALLEYS & OTHER
LOW-LYING AREAS. ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW,
ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
BE MUCH GUSTIER HOWEVER, AS EASTERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SUB-990 MB LOW
APPROACHING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE NEAR-TERM CONTINUES STRONG SYSTEM
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK, WHICH KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING A BAND OF HEAVY, WET SNOW) MAINLY IN
NORTHERN & NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHILE OUR STAY WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. PW VALUES ARE WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, & MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE ARE LIKELY, SO A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STRONGEST CAM SOLUTIONS EVEN DEPICT SOME UPDRAFT HELICITY
TRACKS WHERE A STORM OR TWO IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA, & POTENTIALLY DEEPEN
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME SMALL HAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A DRY SLOT IS LIKELY TO WORK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN, IF NOT OUR ENTIRE
AREA, RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING CLOSER
TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN & NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR
PREDOMINATELY SNOW TO FALL. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT
ENOUGH OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS TO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR THE SNOW WEDNESDAY SETS UP JUST NORTH OF
OUR CWA ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA & NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
STILL, SOME SNOW LIKELY LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA WHICH COULD GET CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND,
MAINLY NORTH OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO PINE CITY LINE WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOME LIGHTER SNOW SOUTH OF THIS REGION, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE TWIN CITIES METRO & I-94 CORRIDOR, BUT WE'D LIKELY ONLY
BE LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK (THU-SAT) WITH
HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S THEN 20S, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
A SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE TRACK OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-WEEK SYSTEM, & GENERATING A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA &
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE PHASING OF THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY A
RESULT OF STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH & EVOLUTION OF THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE STRONGER, MORE PHASED, SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY
GENERATE & PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK, THAT COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE, THE WEAKER, LESS-PHASED SOLUTIONS JUST
BRING A QUICK HIT OF LIGHTER SNOW MAINLY TO SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA & THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. WE LIKELY WON'T SEE
GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION UNTIL WE GET THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM (SOMETIME WEDNESDAY), SO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. MUCH COOLER, BUT
STILL SEASONAL, TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S & LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE LONG STRETCH OF VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT. THIS STRETCH COMES TO AN END IN THE MORNING AS WINDS
INCREASE WITH GUSTS FROM THE EAST IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AFTER 00Z, SO ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS. A
DEEPER DIVE INTO THESE CHANCES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE 06Z TAFS
TONIGHT. WHAT WILL ARRIVE THIS PERIOD THOUGH WILL BE A DROP
INTO MVFR CEILINGS.
KMSP...SAME AS ABOVE FOR THE GENERAL DISCUSSION, BUT FOR MSP
ESPECIALLY THE TERMINAL IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT. SO THE TERMINAL COULD REMAIN DRY WITH ALL THE ACTION
STAYING TO THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT I
DID INTRODUCE SOME RAIN TO THE TAF, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS STAY TO THE NORTH AT THIS POINT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RASN. WIND W 10-20 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...NDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page