392
FXUS63 KMPX 041100
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE WEEKEND MAY FEATURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35-45MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AS EXPECTED, THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE'LL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.
COOLER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIR ARRIVES AS A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN
BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 70S, THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WARMING UP LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BEGINNING THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF WARMTH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
POSITIONED WITHIN A CHANNEL OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND AN EXPANSIVE
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/ZONAL AROUND THE RIDGE, WHICH MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP WITH REGARDS TO THE FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE AND NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR OVER THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW, WE'LL ROLL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY &
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE FRONT AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE
ALMOST CLEARED ALL OUR TAF SITES. KEAU SHOULD SEE -TSRA WITHIN
THE HOUR AND WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR/NEAR IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
KMSP...TSRA HAS ENDED, NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND VRB TO SW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS/OEB
AVIATION...DYE
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