318
FXUS63 KMPX 142034
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TOMORROW DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- BLOWING DUST ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD LIMIT THE BLOWING DUST RISK
TOMORROW.
- BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MN/WI
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD WET AND STORMY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...SEVERAL MOVING PARTS TO THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE'RE MONITORING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
TRACKING LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST, AND WATCHING A LINE OF
BROKEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WE'LL BREAK IT ALL DOWN IN A FEW SECTIONS BELOW:
FORECAST SETUP: WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES AN UPPER-LOW
PIVOTING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE, A
980S MB SURFACE LOW WAS STACKED BENEATH THE UPPER-LOW. A CHANNEL OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A WARM SECTOR POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN, WHICH IS LOCATED BETWEEN SURFACE
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN MN AS A RESULTING OF THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND EFFICIENT MIXING UP TO 5-7K FEET. OCCLUSION OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
TURNING THE WINDS WESTERLY FOR FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY/TOMORROW: LATEST OBSERVATIONS REVEAL
SLAM DUNK RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN DUE TO THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND RH'S BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT.
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN AND WE
DID MAKE A SHORT TERM EXTENSION TO INCLUDE CENTRAL MN DUE TO
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS WESTERLY AND DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD YIELD
NEAR-CRITICAL PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL
BE LESS INTENSE THAN TODAY, THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE BOTH
DRIER AND WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FRIDAY!). DEEP MIXING
OF THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD EASILY DROP RH'S INTO THE
10-20 PERCENT RANGE. THE VERY LOW RH'S AND BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN
AND POLK, BARRON, RUSK COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI. WE'VE COLLABORATED
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO CONVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING FRIDAY. DESPITE THE HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN (INCLUDING THE TC METRO) AND WESTERN WI
(ALONG I-94), THE PROGRESS OF THE "SPRING GREEN-UP" WILL WORK
TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
BLOWING DUST: ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS WESTERN MN. IT WAS JUST
THIS PAST TUESDAY WHEN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PRODUCED STREAKS
OF BLOWING DUST THAT DROPPED VISIBILITY BELOW A QUARTER TO HALF MILE
AND CREATED TRAVEL CHALLENGES. THERE WAS SOME QUESTION HOW THE
SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
IMPACT THE BLOWING DUST SCENARIO TODAY. HOWEVER, RECENT OBSERVATIONS
(BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MNDOT CAMERAS) SHOW VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO DUST. WE OPTED TO ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
ACROSS WESTERN MN WHERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO DUST WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. WE'LL ASSESS THE STATUS OF
THE BLOWING DUST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONSIDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE HEADLINE INTO THE EVENING SHOULD CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS: KMPX RADAR CAPTURES A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MUCAPE GRADIENT NEAR THE THE DAKOTAS/MN STATE BORDERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY IS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE OWING TO
THE NARROW RIBBON OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY DRY LOWEST 7-8K FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CASTS DOUBT IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH THE SURFACE AS MUCH OF WHAT WE SEE ON RADAR MAY ACTUALLY
BE VIRGA. THAT SAID, THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE A CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MAY AID IN
BRINGING STRONGER GUSTS DOWN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST, SO WE MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR 45+ MPH
GUSTS OVER THE COMING HOURS.
WET & STORMY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION WILL SEND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD THAT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BEFORE WE GET INTO THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT, I WANT TO ADDRESS A BIT OF A FORECAST WILD CARD IN THE
LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW AND WILL COMBINE WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTH THROUGH MO/IA TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS IA
AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI ALONG A SW TO NE ORIENTED
THETA-E GRADIENT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
STORMS MOVING INTO THE MPX FORECAST AREA GIVEN CONSENSUS
POSITION OF THE THETA-E BOUNDARY, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
CONVECTION MAY CROSS I-90 IN SOUTHERN MN AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A
FEW OF THE RECENT CAM RUNS. DO NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE SEVERE
WEATHER IN OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER HEADING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE THETA-E BOUNDARY TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD.
SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DAY 4/5 SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES. ON SUNDAY (DAY 4) THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER
THE 15 PERCENT OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK) AND COMMUNITIES ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN MN ARE UNDER A 30 PERCENT
(ENHANCED RISK) AREA. ON MONDAY (DAY 5), NEARLY THE ENTIRE MPX
FORECAST AREA IS OUTLOOKED UNDER THE 15 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER RISK
PROBABILITY. WHILE TIMING AND DETAILS WILL CHANGE AND IT'S STILL A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO LOCK INTO SPECIFICS, WE CAN IDENTIFY A GENERAL
TIME LINE OF EXPECTATIONS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC NATURE OF THE SETUP. IT
ALL BEGINS LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE THE UPPER-FLOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED ~40-50KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND SUPPORT THE
ADVECTION OF DEEPER MOISTURE (LOWER 60S DEW POINTS) INTO THE REGION.
SUPPORTED BY THE LLJ, THE NORTHWARD SURGING MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL BE AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WITH THAT
SAID, IT'S NOT SURPRISING TO SEE EARLY RUNS FROM THE LONG TERM
RRFS SUGGEST A NOCTURNAL MCS LIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THE NOSE OF THE JET. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL THREAT. IT
COULD BE A LOUD START TO SUNDAY!
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IS MORE UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER THE
SETUP BEARS WATCHING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A STOUT EML
CHARACTERIZED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEGC/KM SHOULD
WORK TO CAP THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS A WARM SECTOR FROM EASTERN NE THROUGH IA AND
SOUTHERN MN. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE MODE AND
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM, THOUGH THE POTENTIALLY VOLATILE
ENVIRONMENT BEARS WATCHING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO ROUND
THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR RENEWED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. PATTERN RECOGNITION AND CONSENSUS POSITION
OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURES WOULD FAVOR EASTERN MN INTO WI FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF DEEPER CONVECTION, THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SUNDAY'S EVOLUTION TO ADDRESS
TIMING/HAZARDS FOR MONDAY. BEYOND SEVERE WEATHER, ENSEMBLES
MEANS AND WPC ARE ADVERTISING WIDESPREAD 1-2"+ RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE FORECAST IS TURNING IN A MUCH DIFFERENT DIRECTION TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK. ON A POSITIVE NOTE, THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WET WEATHER SHOULD WORK TO END FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THERE ARE THREE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS DURING THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD: 1) STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 2) A
BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING 3) A PERIOD OF LLWS FOLLOWING THE SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.
MOST OF THE MN TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN) HAVE
ALREADY REPORTED PEAK SOUTHERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35KTS SO FAR
TODAY, WHICH IS A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE ACROSS WESTERN
WI, WHERE PEAK GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 20-25KTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL TURN WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
WESTERN MN. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING IN A GENERAL ENE DIRECTION OVER THE COMING HOURS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS TIED TO A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY,
WHICH SUPPORTS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS. WE HAVE CONVERTED THE PROB30'S TO TEMPOS AT AXN & RWF
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST IN -SHRA/TS IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30'S AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS DUE TO VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE BROKEN NATURE OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ INTENSIFIES TONIGHT. WINDS TURN WESTERLY
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
KMSP...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 18Z TAF. STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A BRIEF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-01Z, HOWEVER
THE BROKEN NATURE OF THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INVOLVING IMPACTS TO MSP.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A PROB30 AND WILL UPGRADE AS OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WARRANT THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE SHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING PRIOR TO A
SW TO W WIND SHIFT TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UPWARDS OF
20-25KTS TOMORROW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
SUN...-SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY, IFR/MVFR. WIND ESE 10-15G30KTS.
MON...-SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY, IFR/MVFR. WIND SW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-
CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEVENS-SWIFT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-
KANABEC-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-STEARNS-TODD.
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-
RUSK.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...STRUS
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