260
FXUS63 KMPX 211058
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR
WILL DRIVE OUR PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH
MEANS WE WILL BE LOOKING TOWARDS ANY SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THIS
FLOW TO SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME LIFT. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT
THIS WEEKEND AS WE BUILD INTO A RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO THE HOT CONDITIONS WE SAW OVER THE PAST WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
THE HOT WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S. HOWEVER WE
DO SEEM TO BE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS TIME INSTEAD OF
UNDER THE MAIN UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RIDGE
RIDERS TO GIVE SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FEW MEMBERS SHOW MUCH OF
ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS OVER
THE WEEKEND WHEN THE MAIN RIDGE BUILDS IN THAT WE SEE MORE
MEMBERS START TO SHOW SOME RIDGE RIDERS AND THEREFORE SOME
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL IT IS FARTHER TO OUR
NORTH, NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WHERE THE CLUSTERING IS
SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES. DOWN HERE THERE ARE
FEWER MEMBERS SHOWING QPF AND IN GENERAL A MORE DISPERSED
SIGNAL. IN SUMMARY NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, BUT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SIGNAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SOME MID LEVEL STRATUS WITH NEAR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT CLEAR VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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