258
FXUS63 KMPX 031722
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1222 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WESTERN WISCONSIN. ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
VIRGA, OWING TO THE DEEP, DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SEEN IN THE 00Z MPX
ROAB. HOWEVER, SEVERAL AWOSS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT RAIN AND GOES
SATELLITE EVEN DETECTED A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES NEAR BDH. THESE
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A SUNNY SUNDAY. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THE AIR SHOULD ALSO DRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. RHS
WILL DROP BELOW 30% WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA FALLING TO 20-
25%. VEGETATION GREEN-NESS AND WINDS WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS, BUT
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 20 MPH FOR MOST OF TODAY. SOME STRONGER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED AN SPS IN WESTERN MN TODAY FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS THE
WARMER AIR MASS REMAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT AS A LLJ AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
TRANSLATES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON USING A BLEND OF THE NBM/NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. GUSTS
IN WESTERN MN MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 30-35 MPH. THE MAIN ENERGY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. A LARGE GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
ARE FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHILE MID TO UPPER 50S
ARE MORE LIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL MN. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT, THOUGH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS
ALSO WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. WEST-CENTRAL WI CURRENTLY HAS THE
BEST CHANCE (20-30%) AT SEEING SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, RETURNING US TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WILL BE BACK
ON THE MENU AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 32,
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FORTUNATELY, FORECAST MODELS DON'T SHOW THE COOLDOWN LASTING TOO
LONG, AS THE HEART OF POLAR, CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY WARMUP
WITH NEXT WEEKEND'S TEMPERATURES ALREADY HINTING TO BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THIS WEEKEND. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, FORECAST CERTAINTY IN RAINFALL IS LOW AS
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LONG-
RANGE MODELS SHOW A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAKER SHORTWAVES TO PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT LARGE SPREAD IN LOCATION AND TIMING
RESULTS IN VERY LOW POPS AFTER MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH
THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING SHIFTING GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO A
PERIOD OF LLWS. WINDS SHOULD PRIMARILY RANGE FROM 310-350 WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-15G20-25KTS THROUGH 00Z, WITH GUSTS FALLING OFF FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE RETURNING AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS LATER IN
THE PERIOD INCREASING TO G30KTS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A 4-6 HOUR
PERIOD OF LLWS AS A RESULT WITH A DIRECTION NEAR 240. LLWS ENDS
AFTER 14-15Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF AND WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN.
KMSP...THE PERIOD FOR LLWS WAS TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY DUE TO GREATER
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD. BESIDES THIS,
GUSTS FROM 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z BEFORE TAPERING
OFF, RETURNING AFTER 08Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES THROUGH.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS COULD REACH 25-30KTS AFTER 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...TDH
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