015
FXUS63 KMPX 210459
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING AFTER MONDAY WITH A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN/SNOW
MID- NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI. BUT, MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS PLAGUED BY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF MN AS THE STRATUS LAYER
IS JUST WITHIN THE DGZ. BUT THIS SNOW SHOULD ONLY BE FOR LOOKS (WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION) AND END BY THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SLOW AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT. THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN PRETTY QUIET WITH ANY INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TOWARDS MID-NEXT WEEK. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SATURATION SHOULD STAY PERSISTENT
ENOUGH FOR THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS TO HANG AROUND. A FEW MORE FLURRIES
MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT FROM THE STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY NEAR RCX.
STILL EXPECTING A COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FUNNELS A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOWS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS (COLDEST IN WESTERN MN). MEANWHILE, HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID TEENS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN TO MID TO UPPER 20S IN WEST-
CENTRAL WI. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
SUNDAY AS LOW TEENS TO LOWER 20S ARE FORECAST (COLDEST IN WESTERN
MN). IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE COLD, THE GOOD NEWS IS TEMPERATURES START
TO REBOUND BY TUESDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK, THOUGH. A FEW SHORTWAVE PASSAGES
LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE LONG-RANGE MODELS DURING THE TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE SUGGESTED AS OF NOW
BUT 20-40% POPS EXIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
(RAIN BEING MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMEST, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MN.) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO
INCREASE TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE HANDLING TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. BUT, LOOKING AT THE LONG-
RANGE ENSEMBLES, THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE MONTH. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A MORE MILD END OF FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CIGS CONTINUE TO SCATTER LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN WI
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO, RECENT OBS IN THE VICINITY OF AXN
HAVE DEVELOPED IFR CIGS AND SATELLITE INDICATES A PATCH OF LOWER
CLOUDS (APPARENT IN AREAS NOT SHROUDED BY HIGH CLOUD COVER)
ACROSS WESTERN MN. INTRODUCED A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT AXN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE IFR BANK SEEMS TO BE EXPANDING.
BROKEN MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...CIGS WILL CLEAR BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF, WITH
MVFR LIKELY RETURNING AROUND MIDDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 15-20KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW. 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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