490
FXUS63 KMPX 181123
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND VERY GUSTY WINDS TODAY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHERN MN DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
CAUSING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES OF -25 TO -35 F.
- BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
IT'S CHILLY TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHILE A
NON-ZERO WIND IS CAUSING WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER. LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO WI THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A BROAD 1-
2" ACROSS THE CWA WHEN IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE. LOCALIZED AREAS COULD
SEE AMOUNTS CLIMB CLOSE TO 3", PARTICULARLY THE COUNTIES NEAR THE
MN/WI BORDER. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WON'T BE TOO HEAVY, THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER IS THE VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL IMMEDIATELY PROCEED IT. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A 40-50 KNOT
850 HPA LLJ RUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN MN BY LATE
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED VALUES WILL
REACH 20-35 MPH (STRONGEST VALUES IN WESTERN MN) WHILE GUSTS WILL
RANGE FROM 25-35 MPH ACROSS WI, TO 40-50 MPH ACROSS WESTERN MN.
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN WILL BE FROM ABOUT
NOON UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WE
RECEIVED ON FRIDAY AND THE EXPECTED FLUFFY SNOW TODAY, BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES LOOK PROBABLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN TO SOUTHERN MN WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST. A STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHERN MN UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. WE
HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
CENTRAL TO EASTERN MN WHERE STILL STRONGER WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW. IF TRAVELING, BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
POTENTIALLY AREAS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST TO SEE IF ANY UPGRADES TO HEADLINES ARE
WARRANTED. PARTICULARLY, WESTERN MN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THAT A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. STEVENS COUNTY ALREADY EXPERIENCED ADVERSE CONDITIONS
FROM BLOWING SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH STRONGER WINDS AND
FALLING SNOW FORECAST TODAY, IT IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS AN END TIME OF 9 PM TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH THAT BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WON'T BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE
TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25-
35 MPH), WIND CHILLS WILL DROP WELL INTO HAZARDOUS LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A CWA-WIDE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -35
F. MAKE SURE TO WEAR MANY LAYERS AND COVER EXPOSED SKIN AS FROSTBITE
CAN OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES WITH THIS COLD AIR. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE ABOVE -10 F. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
NIGHT'S BUT, WITH WEAKER WINDS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE
FROM -15 TO -25 F. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODERATE INTO THE TEENS
TUESDAY AS A FEW WEAKER MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK
LIKELY, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT COULD ADD UP TO AROUND AN INCH.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NBM POPS ONLY MAX OUT AT 15-25%
TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AND LARGER MODEL SPREAD WHEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEAKER SYSTEMS. MORE CERTAIN IS ANOTHER RETURN TO THE DEEP FREEZE BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK. LONG-RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THIS AIR MASS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM -25 TO -35 C, SIGNALING A
GOOD CHANCE THAT SURFACE LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW -10 F. COMBINED
WITH ANY WIND, COLD AIR HEADLINES WOULD PROBABLY BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS. HOWEVER, WE STILL NEED TO DEAL
WITH OUR FIRST BOUT OF COLD AIR TONIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE 06Z TO 12Z TAF WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE START OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST, AS LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS LARGELY PREVENTED VISIBILITY FROM LOWERING DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW IN WESTERN MINNESOTA SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
LEVELS SATURATE, EXPECT SNOW TO FORM OVER AREAS THAT WERE CLEAR
ON RADAR, GENERALLY DURING THE WINDOW FROM 13-16Z EARLIEST IN
THE WEST AND LATEST IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM 190-220
TOWARDS 300-330 AND INCREASE WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20-25KTS,
GUSTING TO 35KTS LEADING TO BLSN AND CONTINUED MVFR VISIBILITY
EVEN AFTER SNOW ENDS BY 22-00Z. BLSN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
WINDS ALSO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z, WITH ALL SITES P6SM AND
SCATTERING OUT ANY LINGERING CIGS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...THE EXPECTED ONSET OF SNOWFALL DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR IS AROUND 15Z, GIVE OR TAKE 30-45 MINUTES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CAME IN VERY DRY BELOW 5000FT, AND THE ALREADY COLD
AIR HAS LESS CAPACITY FOR MOISTURE SO IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH
TO SATURATE AS NORMAL. ONCE WE REACH SATURATION EXPECT MVFR WITH
BOUTS OF IFR VISIBILITY AS SNOW FALLS AS MOST OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE RESIDES WITHIN THE DGZ.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SW TO S 5KTS.
WED...MVFR/-SN EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...TDH
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