570  
FXUS63 KMPX 240413  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1113 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM SPINS OVER NORTHWESTERN KS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING  
MAINLY EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, KEEPING ANY RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO  
SOUTHERN MN. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH  
SUNDAY, WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED ACROSS  
NORTHERN MN. STILL EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO DIMINISH BEFORE  
REACHING CENTRAL MN, BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE. HIGHS WILL  
BE REACHED FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH  
IN THE AFTERNOON AND COOLER AIR, BOLSTERED BY LAKE SUPERIOR, REACHES  
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD-IN ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES. H850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN -2C AND -5C  
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO DESPITE ADEQUATE MIXING, HIGHS WILL BE  
LIMITED TO THE LOWER 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO  
THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.  
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND WAA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 50.  
 
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WAA  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS  
ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS  
WILL ALLOW DEW DEW POINTS TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT  
EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND  
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING RAIN CHANCES TO  
MN AND WI LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF  
MUCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MN, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE  
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC  
ZONE AND DEEPEN. THIS SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN  
SOUTHERN MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI ON FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS SHOW  
VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW  
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MN ON FRIDAY MORNING WHEREAS THE 23.00 ECMWF  
HAS IT TRAVELING SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THE ECMWF  
SOLUTION SUGGESTS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED MID-LEVEL  
LOW. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHWESTERN  
MN TO WEST CENTRAL MN ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE  
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE  
FOR SNOW IN WESTERN WI ON EARLY SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE  
SOLUTIONS, COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES, IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN  
TONIGHT. WE'LL REMAIN VFR AS WELL UNTIL WE GET INTO THE COLD  
ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF CLOUD COVER  
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL MN LATE  
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO 3 OR 4 HOURS OR SO WHERE WE  
COULD SEE CIGS DROP DOWN INTO THE 2K TO 4K FOOT RANGE. FOLLOWED  
THE LAV IDEA FOR TIMING. BEHIND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS, WE'LL GO SKC  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
KMSP...STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS DOWN TO 2K FEET BETWEEN  
ABOUT 19Z AND 22Z. OTHERWISE, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
MON...VFR. WIND E 5 KTS.  
TUE...VFR. WIND SSW 10-15 KTS.  
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS LATE. WIND S 15-20G30KT.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF  
LONG TERM...AMK  
AVIATION...MPG  
 
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