393
FXUS63 KMPX 090536
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ARE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COOLER WITH A DROP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE PROVIDE FOR A
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AS WARM, MOIST AIR MOVES IN LITTLE SHEAR IS PRESENT AND THIS HAS
BEEN AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE HAVE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. THIS AIR MASS WILL PRESENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SEEMS FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED FOR
THIS FORECAST WITH ROUGHLY DISTINCT TWO PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE
MID POINT WILL BE WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE STORM CHANCES. BEFORE THIS
WARM AND HUMID WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AFTER THIS
COOLER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH
LOWER STORM CHANCES OWING TO THE DECREASE IN HEAT THEREFORE
INSTABILITY.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A BUILDING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TODAY WE WILL SEE, AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, MORE OF THE SAME SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN RISK OWING TO OUR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW, ATTENTION
WILL BE MAINLY WELL TO OUR WEST NEAR THE COLD FRONT. IT IS HERE
WHERE CI WILL OCCUR AND THESE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ND, BUT ALSO NORTHERN SD. WITH THE UPSCALE
GROWTH THE MAIN RISK ON TUESDAY WOULD BE FOR STRONG WINDS. OVER
THE DAKOTAS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK, BUT FOR US IT IS MUCH
LESS CERTAIN. IF A MCS CAN DEVELOP A STRONG COLD POOL THE MCS
WILL PERSIST INTO MINNESOTA WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS LINE GET? NORTH DAKOTA
IS WHERE IS LOOKS MOST LIKELY WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GOING
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS LINE TO SEE IF CENTRAL MINNESOTA SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS
POSSIBLE MCS. THE SAME BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY WILL BE OVER US ON
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. HOW
STRONG THESE INITIAL STORMS COULD BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW TUESDAY
PLAYS OUT. IF WE SEE A LARGE MCS MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA IT WILL
DECREASE SEVERE CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LESS "FUEL" AVAILABLE
FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS. IF THE MCS EITHER DOESN'T COME
TOGETHER OR DOESN'T MAKE IT INTO MUCH IF ANY OF MINNESOTA WE
WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS SECOND ROUND WE COULD SEE SUPERCELLS AND ALL MODES OF
SEVERE (WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADO) WOULD BE IN PLAY. THE OTHER
STORY OF THIS PERIOD BEYOND THE STORM CHANCES WILL BE HEAT. THIS
IS TIED DIRECTLY INTO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST AS THE MORE RAIN,
CLOUDS, AND CONVECTION IN GENERAL WE SEE THE MORE WE WILL TREND
TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FORECAST. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS BOTH DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS STAYING IN THE
80S TIED TO THAT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SOLUTION.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY SO STILL SOME RAIN CHANCES, BUT LESS THAN
THE SEVERE RISKS OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WHICH IS ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL NOW AS
NORMALS ARE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THIS POINT IN JUNE.
AFTER A BUSY EARLY AND MID WEEK, THE LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BE A
NICE BREAK FROM MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MOST SITES START WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF W WI
SITES WHERE FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL DROP TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CLASSIC SET UP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN MN THRU
WESTERN WI THROUGH DAYBREAK. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPO GROUPS
AND ADJUSTED THE PREVAILING FOR THESE SITES. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE FOR MVFR RANGE WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY AT
RNH/EAU. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR OUR WESTERN MN SITES AS CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER 10KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
KMSP... MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
CURRENT THOUGHTS ON TS POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIRES
GUIDANCE FAVORS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE
TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT OPTED TO LEAVE
IT OUT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON
TIMING, COVERAGE, AND MAGNITUDE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...EARLY AM IFR/-TSRA LIKELY. CHANCE AFTERNOON IFR/+TSRA
WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHANCE PM -TSRA. WIND W 10-15G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 15G30KT.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BPH
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