496
FXUS63 KMPX 081202
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AT
TIMES. ON AND OFF SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM SUNSET THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH A COUPLE PERIODS OF STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
TODAY...WE START THIS MORNING OFF WITH A CORRIDOR OF STORMS
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CO ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
AND INTO CANADA. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS WITH SPOTS LIKE KSTC RECORDING PERIODS OF 2.5-3"/HR
RATES. THE AIRPORT SAW 0.5" FALL IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES.
FORTUNATELY, FROM A FLOODING PERSPECTIVE, THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN LINE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE MN/WI BORDER AS OF 3:15AM. THE LLJ DOES NOT
REALLY START TO WANE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, SO CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THROUGHOUT
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE VERY LEAST, THE SHIELD OF PRECIP NEAR THE
SD/IA/MN CORNER WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST AND BRING ON-AND-
OFF SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE
DONE BY LATE MORNING, THOUGH SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY PERSIST UNTIL
THE FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH TODAY.
THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FROPA, THOUGH THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ACROSS IOWA, WHERE THE
LLJ WILL ENHANCE LOW- LEVEL SHEAR. THAT SAID, YOU DO SEE SOME
SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 06Z HRRR PRODUCING STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS EVENING. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT IF ANY ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP,
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE REMOVAL OF SPC'S DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH
OF EAST-CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IT'LL BE A QUIETER TWO-DAY PERIOD
AS HIGHER PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AS CAA SUPPORTS GUSTS OF AROUND 25 TO 35
MPH TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S, BUT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S (OR EVEN 40S FOR
SOME SPOTS NORTH OF I-94 THURSDAY MORNING).
THIS WEEKEND...TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BIT MORE ACTIVITY BOTH
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS
BUILDS IN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SERIES OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES COULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN, INCLUDING
FRIDAY EVENING AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THESE SETUPS BEING A FEW DAYS OUT, BUT THE SPC IS AT LEAST
HIGHLIGHTING A WINDOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE FRIDAY
FROPA. THEN WITH SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME
LEGIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS A BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT FUTURE DISCUSSIONS TO TRACK THESE RISKS,
THOUGH FOR NOW THERE ARE MANY DETAILS STILL UNKNOWN AND IT IS
CERTAINLY NOT WORTH CHANGING ANY WEEKEND PLANS QUITE YET.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PRESS
EAST OVER SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN WI AT
INITIALIZATION. CEILINGS ARE FAIRLY VARIED, FROM AS LOW AS LOW-
RANGE MVFR AT MSP TO HIGH VFR IN WESTERN MN. PRECIP IS STILL
VERY MUCH POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING, WHILE
WAITING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PRESS EASTWARD AND CLEAR EACH TAF
SITE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
VERY MUCH POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS MORNING,
THEN ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT EAU FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY S WINDS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, THEN WINDS WILL VEER AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
KMSP...MVFR CEILINGS TO START AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ANOTHER ROUND OF TWO OF
SHOWERS LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MN. THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ONWARD LOOK TO PREVAIL AS VFR,
ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND MORE
STABLE/DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-5KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TONIGHT WHILE DIRECTIONS VEER TO S AND W
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SHRA/MVFR LIKELY LATE. WIND SW 15G25-30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page