296  
FNUS73 KPAH 231246  
FWSPAH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR AREA 2D RX...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
746 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MARCH 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FROM THE  
WEST. AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION EARLY  
SUNDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY. SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW  
PRESSURE PASSES BY JUST TO THE NORTH, AND A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES  
THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY, BUT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE  
WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY. WETTING RAIN MAY RETURN BY FRIDAY  
WITH THE APPROACH OF A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........38 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.  
RH..................78 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS EAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 7 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
 
TIME (CDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............38 46 54 58 60  
RH..............78 62 42 34 33  
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 12 12 12 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1600 2700 3300 3600  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E SE SE S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 9 7 7 9  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.  
RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8  
MPH OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............58 53 49 47 46 46  
RH..............40 54 63 65 68 73  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 3 3 5 6 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 7 6 8 10 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....1000 100 100 100 100 100  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE SE SE S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 9 12 14 16  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 4 4 3  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 53 PERCENT IN THE  
MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 43 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.  
RH..................MIN 67 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 22  
TO 29 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
CWR.............0 50 50 50 40 40  
TEMP............46 49 53 58 61 63  
RH..............76 77 77 75 72 69  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 10 12 14 14 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 16 20 22 23 21  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 200 500 1900 2200 800  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 21 28 28 26 24  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...BLANCHARD  
REQUESTED BY...DAVID JOMES  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1904290.0/PAH  
.DELDT 03/23/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL DAVID_JONES@FWS.GOV  
 
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