889  
FNUS73 KPAH 281421  
FWSPAH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR DEAN EAST RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
921 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 28.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO POOR SMOKE DISPERSION  
THROUGH MIDDAY. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  
MIXING DEEPENS, LEADING TO FAIR SMOKE DISPERSION BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30  
PERCENT. COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED  
FIRE WEATHER RISK. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST  
WINDS THROUGH THE TRANSPORT LAYER LEADING TO VERY GOOD SMOKE  
DISPERSION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO BETWEEN 25  
AND 30 PERCENT.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 63.  
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 8  
TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4900 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /7800 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR  
/49100 KNOT-FT/.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
 
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............49 53 55 59 61 62 63 62  
RH..............52 44 40 36 33 32 30 32  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 8 9 9 9 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST. 8 9 10 12 13 13 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 3.1 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SW W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 8 9 10 12 13  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 12 19 30 36 43 49 46  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 41.  
RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 14  
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3500 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............61 56 53 51 48 48 47 45 44 43 43 42  
RH..............35 43 50 54 58 60 63 68 70 70 70 73  
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW SW S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 9 10 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 13  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..14 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70.  
RH..................MIN 32 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 24  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (97400 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO GOOD (74600 KNOT-FT)  
EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO VERY GOOD  
(106300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............41 44 57 64 69 70  
RH..............79 76 53 41 33 33  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 10 12 13 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 16 18 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 1.4 3.5 4.9 4.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 18 22 23 24  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 5 23 67 97 103  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR GOOD GOOD VYGD  
 

 
FORECASTER...COOLEY  
REQUESTED BY...JASON ROSE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2408651.1/PAH  
.DELDT 03/28/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL JASON.ROSE@USDA.GOV  
 
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