263  
FNUS73 KPAH 201220  
FWSPAH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST TRACT...USFS SHAWNEE NF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
720 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HOT TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. THERE WILL  
BE A WEAK INVERSION NEAR 5K FEET. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH  
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND INCREASE WITH ALTITUDE. THE RESULT SHOULD  
BE GOOD DISPERSION DAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........79 AT IGNITION...MAX 93.  
RH..................79 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1100-2400  
FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-6700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 13 TO  
18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............79 87 91 93 91  
RH..............79 59 49 44 47  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 7 9 9 8  
20 FT WIND GUST. 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 2400 4800 6200 6700  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.0 5 15 18 13  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 72.  
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 6 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............88 82 78 76 75 74  
RH..............52 61 69 71 74 79  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....6500 4300 1100 1100 1500 1400  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 0 0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 46 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86.  
RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-6600 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 14 TO 23  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,  
THEN DECREASING TO 7 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 50 50  
TEMP............72 75 82 85 86 85  
RH..............84 82 69 63 59 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 8 8 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1600 2400 4700 6300 6500  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.0 7 22 21 15 10  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4  
 

 
FORECASTER...HOOPER  
REQUESTED BY...SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1815989.1/PAH  
.DELDT 09/20/18  
.EMAIL WJITER@FS.FED.US  
 
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