748
FNUS73 KPAH 221409
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR RED SHALE BN...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
909 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SUNNY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35% WITH MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING AROUND
4600FT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 1700FT MIXING HEIGHT WILL BE REACHED BETWEEN
11 AM AND 12 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW AROUND 15-30 MPH MOST OF THE DAY,
AND CONDITIONS FOR SMOKE DISPERSION WILL BE VERY GOOD BY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE AS EARLY AS
7 OR 8 PM, AND WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE N AND REMAIN GUSTY
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 85.
RH..................62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 13
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 26 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4600 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /24600 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...VERY
GOOD /106800 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............75 78 81 83 85 85 85 85
RH..............62 58 51 46 41 40 37 36
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.21 22 25 26 25 26 25 24
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.1 4.6 4.4 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 22 24 24 26 26 28 28
VRATE KT-FT/1K..25 30 48 67 94 107 105 74
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR FR GD GD VGD VGD GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 37 PERCENT IN THE
EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO 19 PERCENT LATE IN
THE EVENING DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38.
RH..................MAX 73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH 10 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTS
UP TO 31 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 24
TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (54600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (8200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......PC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC MCR MCR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CWR.............0 30 30 40 30 20 20 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............84 81 72 64 57 55 51 49 48 45 43 41
RH..............37 42 41 58 64 64 63 63 60 63 65 67
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 10 12 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 10
20 FT WIND GUST.22 22 25 28 30 31 30 30 29 28 26 26
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 15 24 26 29 29 30 30 28 26 24 24
VRATE KT-FT/1K..24 8 30 48 53 53 54 55 44 41 35 36
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR PR PR
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 58.
RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (56800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MCR PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............40 39 38 40 44 47 51 54 56 57 58 57
RH..............67 70 73 67 60 53 46 41 38 37 36 37
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST.25 21 21 21 20 20 18 18 18 17 16 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.3 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N NE NE N N NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 22 22 21 22 20 20 20 20 20 18 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..31 31 36 34 41 38 42 46 52 57 53 32
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR PR FR FR FR FR FR PR
FORECASTER...WITTEN
REQUESTED BY...DAVID JONES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2607103.0/PAH
.DELDT 03/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DAVID_JONES@FWS.GOV
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