860
FXUS63 KLSX 051110
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
610 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN/RETROGRADE ON WEDNESDAY. SO WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUING TO USHER IN STRONG WAA
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 105
AND 110 THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND TODAY STRONG WAA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AND DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY, WILL EXTEND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN TIME
AND LOCATION, ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH 11 PM THURSDAY.
NORTH OF THIS AREA I WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING TIL 11 PM
WEDNESDAY AS THIS AREA COULD BE AFFECTED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN THE MEANTIME, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MU CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG, AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK, BETWEEN 20 AND 30KTS
WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
BEGIN SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND CAMS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
THE LATEST NBM SOLUTION WITH THE ACTIVITY SKIMMING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAKENING COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL APPROACH PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MO/WEST CENTRAL IL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES END UP, AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS HARD TO PIN DOWN, THUS
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE, WILL NOT MESSAGE ANY RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BYRD
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE LATEST CLUSTER
ANALYSIS PAGE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES OF EXACTLY WHERE
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY, SO EXTENDED/EXPANDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS
WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPERING OFF. OTHERWISE, DRY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
BYRD
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
BYRD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SAINT LOUIS 101 81 101 80 / 5 10 20 20
QUINCY 97 77 96 76 / 10 20 30 40
COLUMBIA 100 77 100 76 / 5 10 10 20
JEFFERSON CITY 101 77 102 77 / 5 5 10 10
SALEM 98 77 98 76 / 10 10 30 20
FARMINGTON 98 76 100 75 / 10 5 10 5
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-
SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-
WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-
SHELBY MO.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BOND IL-
CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-SAINT CLAIR-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL.
WFO LSX
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