232  
FXUS63 KLSX 241114  
AFDLSX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO  
614 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
 
I THINK MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION  
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. THE WARM  
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WAS LOCATED IN THE  
VICINITY OF I-70 AT 08Z. A FEW ISOLATED MID-LEVEL BASED SHOWERS  
DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEY  
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  
HAS SHIFTED FROM IA INTO CENTRAL IL AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST  
POTENTIAL RESIDES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE  
THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN MID LEVEL  
WARMING/CAPPING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND  
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY WARM  
DAY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE APPROACHING THE RECORD AT ST. LOUIS.  
FOLKS TAKING PART IN STORM CLEAN-UP AND RIVER FLOOD FIGHTING  
EFFORTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDICES IN THE LOW-MID 90S. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED STORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WHERE RATHER  
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST, ALONG WITH LITTLE CIN, AND WEAK  
CONVERGENCE.  
 
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT A BIT  
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT ATTENDANT WITH SOME WEAKENING  
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND VEERING FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.  
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MO HAVE THE  
GREATEST PROBABILITY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT, WITH A  
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE  
REGION FROM EASTERN KS ACROSS NORTHWEST MO INTO IA SHOULD SEE THE  
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GREATEST  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED  
WITHIN THIS LATER REGION WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL  
TRAVERSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ  
WILL FOCUS LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  
 
GLASS  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
 
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY FROM ANY  
DECAYING AND EAST-SOUTHEAST SAGGING MCSS OR REMNANT BOUNDARIES.  
THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER ATTENDANT WITH  
SOME FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE, AND AS THE FRONT SETTLES  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA FOCUSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL HAVE  
TO KEY AN EYE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD ON MONDAY SHIFTING THE  
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO NEBRASKA, IOWA, AND  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND  
WELL INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS SHOULD THEN RAMP BACK UP MIDWEEK AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER  
TROF AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY.  
 
GLASS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
 
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT KSUS AND KCPS AT TIMES THROUGH 13-14Z  
RESULTING IN MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH  
CLOUDS CONSISTING OF DIURNAL CU AND CIRRUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO  
THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL,  
INCLUDING KCOU AND KUIN. AT THIS TIME THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO  
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IF IN FACT THE PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR,  
AND THEREFORE I EITHER HAVEN'T MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE  
TAF OR HAVE VCSH. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
EXIST OVERNIGHT IN THIS SAME AREA, ESPECIALLY AT KUIN.  
 
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:  
 
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY MORNING AND  
THEREFORE I HAVE MENTIONED VCSH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE  
FORECAST.  
 
GLASS  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
 
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY  
 
STL 92 (2012)  
COU 94 (1911)  
UIN 94 (1921)  
 

 
   
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
WFO LSX  
 
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