020
FXUS63 KLSX 260954
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
454 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S.
- THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION VIA
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, I AM KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TODAY.
IT STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO BRING A CHANCE (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE VORT IS.
WHILE CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY'S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 15C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. WE WILL ENTER AN
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THE LREF
IS SHOWING TWO NOTABLE TROUGHS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS DOES SHOW SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FIRST TROUGH AS IT MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LREF AND NSSL
MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT,
LIKELY FROM THE REMAINING LINE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE SCENARIOS
ARE STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT, SO THERE IS STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT IF, WHEN
AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP GIVEN THE COMPLEX
INTERACTION OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, THE COLD FRONT, AND
CLOUD COVER. EVEN WITH THESE QUESTIONS, ALL HAZARDS (E.G. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES) LOOK POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS
BOTH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL GET STALLED UNDER QUASI-STATIONARY
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND NOTABLE TROUGH THAT
THE LREF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE LREF
MEMBER ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
GREATEST NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (70-80%) ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT
CHANCE OF SEEING ANOTHER 2" OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 IS 30-40% ACCORDING TO THE LREF GIVEN THE REPEATED
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1500 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 19Z. THEN DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
WHEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (PROB30) TO MOVE INTO THE
ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR UIN. THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. OTHERWISE,
CURRENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY 06Z.
BRITT
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, NEARING
DAILY RECORDS FOR LATE APRIL. HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS
FOR APRIL 28.
LOCATION RECORD
ST LOUIS 92 SET IN 1970
COLUMBIA 88 SET IN 1970
QUINCY 88 SET IN 1970
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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