052
FXUS63 KLSX 191130
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
530 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
FOCUS THRU THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS THRU TONIGHT, THEN
TURNING TO PRECIP CHANCES ON MON. ONGOING HEADLINES CONTINUE.
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW TODAY, WHICH
SHUD LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KTS RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHUD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LIKEWISE,
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AS CAA CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A POTENT S/W DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
PRECIP LOCATION WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SW
FLANK, PUSHING PRECIP FURTHER FROM THE S/W TRACK. HAVE GENERALLY
ALIGNED POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE S/W INTO MON EVENING. THIS
SHUD BE A LOW QPF SYSTEM, BUT WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE, SLRS
WILL BE HIGH. STILL, MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT
ARRIVES. GOING FORECAST FOR POPS AND SNOW MAY BE TOO LOW, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHERE HIGHER BAND OF SNOW WILL SETUP.
TILLY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2020
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA, IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST FLURRIES AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MO LEADING TO A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WILL
SEE THE START OF A WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS, AND AS THE SURFACE WIND BECOMES
SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD FAVOR A PRECIPITATION TYPE OF MAINLY
LIQUID RAIN, WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PATH
OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WINTRY MIX. FOR NOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MODEL SOLUTION, BUT THERE STILL MAY BE A
WINTRY MIX DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.
GKS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO MVFR SC DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO
KEPT MVFR CEILINGS OVER KUIN WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE AT REST OF
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET. SC WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
BYRD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SAINT LOUIS 20 9 21 13 / 0 0 10 10
QUINCY 10 1 15 6 / 0 0 10 5
COLUMBIA 20 7 18 9 / 0 0 40 10
JEFFERSON CITY 22 8 20 9 / 0 0 40 10
SALEM 20 11 25 14 / 0 0 5 5
FARMINGTON 27 10 23 12 / 0 0 20 20
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KNOX MO-LEWIS MO.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.
WFO LSX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page