843  
FXUS63 KLSX 010949  
AFDLSX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO  
349 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
-RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND  
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO  
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  
 
-TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST  
DAY OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
-A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES  
TO THE REGION, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION  
EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY OR  
SLOWLY RISING. HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS  
AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, WILL SEE  
THE RAIN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW AND SLEET (DUE TO  
EVAPORATIVE COOLING) AS IT EXITS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.  
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  
 
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, DESPITE WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE  
SOUTH, THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT, THUS HIGHS WILL BE  
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL  
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  
 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLIDES EAST TOWARDS  
THE ROCKIES, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. SO THIS COMBINED  
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL ADVECT IN MUCH WARMER  
AIR. HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW 60S TO  
LOW 70S.  
 
BYRD  

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS SOME LOCATION AND STRENGTH  
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER,  
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN. THUS WINDS WILL PICKUP ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY, BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY  
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THESE WINDS WILL USHER IN THE WARMEST AIR  
THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, 25 TO 30  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS PERSIST THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND SLIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EVEN THE  
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TIMING, STRENGTH AND LOCATION  
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS STUCK WITH THE LATEST NBM  
SOLUTION WITH RAIN MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH  
TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS  
TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR ANY  
SEVERE CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND  
ENSEMBLES HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS INSTABILITY IS CONCERNED,  
WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MU CAPES OF 250 J/KG WHILE THE GFS IS  
1000+ J/KG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG  
THE MODELS AS FAR AS 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR IS CONCERNED, IT WILL BE  
AROUND 20 TO 30KTS AND SOME CAPPING EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR.  
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
BEYOND TUESDAY, WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR.  
 
BYRD  

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND  
SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AT THIS HOUR. SO FAR, LITTLE TO NO  
CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM  
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS THE OZARKS. WITH VERY DRY  
AIR STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE, CONFIDENCE IN EVEN MVFR RESTRICTIONS IS  
DECREASING. AS SUCH, THIS FORECAST UPDATE RAISED CEILINGS A BIT.  
WE MAY HAVE INTERMITTENT INSTANCES OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY  
TOMORROW WHILE PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE'S GROWING EVIDENCE TO  
SUGGEST THE CEILINGS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  
 
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO  
VISIBILITIES AND WILL ONLY MAKE FOR MINOR LIQUID-EQUIVALENT  
ACCUMULATIONS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME  
STICKING TO SURFACES AMIDST ABOVE-FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES AND  
WARM SURFACES. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING  
AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
MRB  

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. THE  
TABLE BELOW LISTS THE RECORD HIGHS AT THE CLIMATE LOCATIONS IN OUR  
SERVICE AREA.  
 
SAT MARCH 2 SUN MARCH 3 MON MARCH 4  
ST LOUIS 82 IN 2022 85 IN 1974 79 IN 1974  
COLUMBIA 82 IN 2022 80 IN 1983 80 IN 1938  
QUINCY 77 IN 1976 77 IN 1946 73 IN 1961  
 

 
   
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  

 
 

 
WFO LSX  
 
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