232
FXUS63 KLSX 241114
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
614 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019
I THINK MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. THE WARM
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WAS LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF I-70 AT 08Z. A FEW ISOLATED MID-LEVEL BASED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEY
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
HAS SHIFTED FROM IA INTO CENTRAL IL AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL RESIDES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN MID LEVEL
WARMING/CAPPING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY WARM
DAY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE APPROACHING THE RECORD AT ST. LOUIS.
FOLKS TAKING PART IN STORM CLEAN-UP AND RIVER FLOOD FIGHTING
EFFORTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOW-MID 90S. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WHERE RATHER
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST, ALONG WITH LITTLE CIN, AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT A BIT
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT ATTENDANT WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND VEERING FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MO HAVE THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT, WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE
REGION FROM EASTERN KS ACROSS NORTHWEST MO INTO IA SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED
WITHIN THIS LATER REGION WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
WILL FOCUS LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
GLASS
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY FROM ANY
DECAYING AND EAST-SOUTHEAST SAGGING MCSS OR REMNANT BOUNDARIES.
THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER ATTENDANT WITH
SOME FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE, AND AS THE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA FOCUSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL HAVE
TO KEY AN EYE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD ON MONDAY SHIFTING THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO NEBRASKA, IOWA, AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD THEN RAMP BACK UP MIDWEEK AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROF AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
GLASS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT KSUS AND KCPS AT TIMES THROUGH 13-14Z
RESULTING IN MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
CLOUDS CONSISTING OF DIURNAL CU AND CIRRUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL,
INCLUDING KCOU AND KUIN. AT THIS TIME THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IF IN FACT THE PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR,
AND THEREFORE I EITHER HAVEN'T MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
TAF OR HAVE VCSH. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
EXIST OVERNIGHT IN THIS SAME AREA, ESPECIALLY AT KUIN.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEREFORE I HAVE MENTIONED VCSH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
FORECAST.
GLASS
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
STL 92 (2012)
COU 94 (1911)
UIN 94 (1921)
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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