403
FXUS63 KLSX 060436
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1036 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH COLDER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH TODAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AND THE LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL ENABLE AIR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK TO THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40. THE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS. WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND PUSH
A WARM FRONT BACK UP TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WON'T BEGIN BUILDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE WARM
ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-25
DEGREE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE TO PUT HIGHS IN THE 60S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOW 70S IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI IF THE WARM ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND CLOUDS
HOLD OFF ALL DAY.
CARNEY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE
TO A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET FORCING SOME WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ALL CAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
EVENING TO A GREATER OR LESSER EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT THAT THE RAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING, BUT IT
SHOULD MOISTEN UP ENOUGH BY 06Z FOR THE SPOTTY SHOWERS TO PRODUCE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FAIRLY SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS
(MOST NOTABLY THE GFS) TAKING ALL DAY FOR IT TO GET FROM NORTHEAST
MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. BECAUSE OF
THIS, THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH NEARLY 500 J/KG. IN CONTRAST THE ECMWF HAS
VIRTUALLY NONE, AND WHILE THE NAM HAS OVER 500 J/KG SBCAPE IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, IT'S OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL THINK A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A 15-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.
THE BIG COOLDOWN THIS WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING GOOD AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, PHASES WITH
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN, AND BECOMES A DEEP TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
HUDSON BAY ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE IN FLUX DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LREF HIGH TEMPERATURE LQRS
ARE 9 TO 11 DEGREES ON SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. NBM
DETERMINISTIC HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NEAR ST. JOSEPH TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A SMALL CHANGE IN
THIS TRACK WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON'S
TEMPERATURES. ONE THING DOES SEEM ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT:
IT'S GOING TO GET DARN COLD BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON SO FAR WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, IT
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID TO LATE DECEMBER THAN EARLY NOVEMBER. I
ALSO THINK SOME SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IF
MOISTURE CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO ENCOUNTER THE COLD AIR STREAMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTER ANOTHER SUBFREEZING NIGHT TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ATTENUATES AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF VARIANCE IN THE
500MB HEIGHT FIELD, AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURE IQRS OF 10+ DEGREES
SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF THE WARMUP IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD, BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SECTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES (50%) AFFECT KUIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE LATE ARRIVAL AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
CHANCE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF AND MAY BE ADDED TO
LATER UPDATES.
UNTIL THEN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW
INCREASES AS IT TURN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES REMAINING ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINE THE FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. VFR WAS CARRIED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
MAPLES
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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