475
FXUS63 KLSX 092323
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
623 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY, BUT SEASONABLE
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SWING SE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
AS IT DOES, THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP
SHUD REMAIN ALONG NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE VORT MAX
MOVES SE.
GOING FORECAST MAY HAVE TOO FEW CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHUD ALLOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT TO DEVELOP INTO CU
FIELD UNDER THE MAY SUN. WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
AND CONTINUED CAA, EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVG.
TILLY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024
A FAST MOVING TROF SHUD BRUSH THE AREA ON SAT LEAVING NW FLOW OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS SHUD RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH AMPLE SOLAR
INSOLATION. THIS TREND CONTINUES THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO VARY NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERENCES
IN PHASING OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. NEVERTHELESS, PATTERN SHUD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN COMPARED TO DRY TIME.
TILLY
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT IS A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THESE ARE LIKELY TO
LAST INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING. IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME AREAS COULD SEE IFR CEILINGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
QUINCY IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BUT EVEN HERE THE ODDS OF
A CATEGORY IMPACT ARE LOW AND IF IT OCCURS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
KIMBLE
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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