087  
FXUS63 KPAH 241128  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
528 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS  
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA. WE'LL BREAK IT DOWN BY TIME PERIOD.  
 
THIS MORNING...A MOSTLY SOLID SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS  
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT  
LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATER  
THIS MORNING. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE AVERAGED A FEW HUNDREDTHS  
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. WHILE RADAR DOES SHOW POCKETS OF  
MODERATE RAIN OVER NE ARKANSAS MOVING TOWARDS SE MISSOURI,  
THINKING OVERALL IS THAT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE TOO LOW TO CREATE  
FLOODING ISSUES IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING  
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A  
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND MAYBE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS  
IN SE MISSOURI, FAR SW ILLINOIS, AND FAR W KENTUCKY FROM LATE  
MORNING INTO THE THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL DRYNESS WORKS  
NORTH INTO THAT AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50  
NEAR EVV TO THE UPPER 50S AT POF.  
 
THINGS GET INTERESTING BY MID- AND LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST  
MISSOURI AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW IS  
PROGGED TO PASS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THAT REGION. MODEST  
ADVECTION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE (TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER  
50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S) COUPLED WITH STEEP  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM, WILL YIELD ROUGHLY 250-750  
J/KG OF SURFACED-BASED INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS  
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG WITH 60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND  
ABOUT 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT, CAN'T  
RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY  
FROM 21Z-0Z), WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL,  
A DAMAGING WIND GUST, AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. WITH THE  
SURFACE LOW NEARBY, COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.  
THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA HAS A SIMILAR IDEA. ANY  
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY EVENING AT THE LATEST.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AFTER A QUIET BUT CLOUDY TUESDAY WITH  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, A SECOND QUICK- MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL  
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  
THIS COULD YIELD A FEW RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY, BUT AS COLDER AIR  
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY, WE COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO  
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  
QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO NO ACCUMULATION IS  
EXPECTED. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO DESCEND OUR WAY,  
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S, ABOUT  
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z GUIDANCE IN THE  
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE CONSENSUS FOR SENSIBLE  
WEATHER IS NOT THAT GREAT.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT, WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES LIKELY TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. THE  
00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SURFACE  
REFLECTIONS AND SOME LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER  
IMPULSES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR THE SOUTHERN  
HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THAT IS THE ONE PERIOD AND  
LOCATION THAT HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS  
DRY, BUT IMPULSES COULD IMPACT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA  
ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE  
COLD WITH RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST OR WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE,  
SO SNOW WILL BE A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.  
 
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI  
AND OHIO VALLEYS SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT THERE  
INTO NEXT MONDAY, WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KICK OUT  
AN INITIAL IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH TOWARD OUR REGION,  
EFFECTIVELY FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND PUTTING US INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW  
SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. WITH DECENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION,  
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME  
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER  
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  
 
LOOKING INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR  
HEAVY RAIN FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT OVER OUR REGION.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE  
COLDEST AIR EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE  
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH, AND LOWS WILL BE  
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE READINGS UP TO  
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG  
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/FOG AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  
COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON AT KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD FLS BEHIND  
THE MORNING WAVE OF RAIN, SO NOT EXPECTED ANY IMPROVEMENT IN  
CIGS. ADDED VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AT KCGI WHERE SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AT 9-12 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE  
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DWS  
SHORT TERM...DWS  
LONG TERM...DRS  
AVIATION...DWS  
 
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