388
FXUS63 KPAH 071713
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (RANGING FROM 30-60%)
ARE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK; HOWEVER, SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN
LESS THAN 5%. SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES (5-15%)
MAY CREEP INTO THE QUAD STATE AREA LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO OR BELOW 1/4 MILE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WARMER
TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
LARGELY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING EACH DAY. THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED; HOWEVER, PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS (TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS) DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIGHT (LESS THAN 20KTS) TO HAVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND, LEADING TO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDER ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.
THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN A BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT,
SHEAR INCREASES CLOSER TO 25-35KTS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
(ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST IN), WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH
TO GIVE THE QUAD STATE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THOSE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FLATTER
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AGAIN, INTO THE LOW 90S. THE
COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S) , WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD ONCE
AGAIN, ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-60% CHANCE). FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE ONCE AGAIN (20KTS OR LESS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY), SO
ISOLATED SEVERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF HEAT, BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT EACH TAF SITE. VISIBILITIES IN
ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE BRIEFLY REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR; HOWEVER,
MOST SITES WILL STAY VFR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOG MAY DROP
VISIBILITIES LOWER TONIGHT, IN THE 2-5 MILE RANGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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