579
FXUS63 KPAH 281120
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LATE SEASON HEATWAVE WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK QUITE BALMY, REMAINING IN THE MID 70S
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY THREATEN SOME RECORD WARM LOWS.
THE PROLONGED DURATION OF THE HEAT MAY WARRANT HEAT
HEADLINES.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND LIMITED
RAINFALL PROSPECTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY, SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO TAKE ON A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY HELPING TO USHER IN THE START OF OUR LATE SEASON HEATWAVE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SHIFT
EAST AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A 594-596DM RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK AS SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO A DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH.
THIS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH, AND
MOST LIKELY WOULDN'T ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN MUCH AT ALL.
THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE MAY LARGELY REMAIN
IN TACT HEADING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
LREF PROBABILITIES FOR MAXTS REACHING AT LEAST 95 DEGREES ARE QUITE
HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK, PEAKING IN THE 80-95% RANGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS EVEN A DECENT CHANCE (30-40%) THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS REACH 100. THIS IS MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MO
OR SOUTHERN IL. HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN LOWER THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED
DURING PREVIOUS HEATWAVES, WITH DEW POINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE. THEREFORE, HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULDN'T GET CARRIED
AWAY, REMAINING IN THE 98-104 RANGE. THE PROLONGED DURATION OF THIS
HEATWAVE MAY WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES THOUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AMONGST SOME OF THE HOTTEST WE'VE EXPERIENCED
THIS SUMMER. HEATRISK CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MAJOR TO EXTREME IMPACTS
FROM THE HEAT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK QUITE
WARM, REMAINING IN THE MID 70S MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MAY CHALLENGE
SOME DAILY RECORD WARM LOWS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING OUR AREA DRY OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH SOME SIGNAL THAT THIS DRY PATTERN MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GUESS WE HAVE EARNED IT AFTER
THE VERY WET SUMMER THAT MOST OF OUR REGION ENDURED (WETTEST SUMMER
ON RECORD AT CAPE GIRARDEAU AND 2ND WETTEST IN PADUCAH).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WITH
BASES OF 4-6KFT. SKIES CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND MAINLY CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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