768
FXUS63 KPAH 151114
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
514 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY WHEN UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN, AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, THEN IT'S BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
IT CAN GET COLDER HERE, BUT NOT BY A WHOLE LOT. MIDNIGHT AIR
TEMPS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA CLOSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS ARE BETWEEN
0 AND 5 INCREASING TO ABOUT 10 TO 12 IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT WILL GET COLDER TONIGHT, WITH DEWPOINTS
DOWN BETWEEN 0 AND 5 AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE MERCIFULLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF US AND PUTS US IN
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF THE
LAST MONTH OR SO OF PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/HUDSON BAY REGION KEEPING US IN A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A STRONGER
ONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS TROUGH SHAPE AND TIMING. IT SPINS
UP A 990MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRAILING A LONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT WOULD BE A
PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR SEVERE EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT TWO
CONSECUTIVE COLD FRONTS HAVE SCOURED THE GULF OF MOISTURE TO THE
POINT IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE MORE THAN JUST A COUPLE DAYS TO GET
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION FOR INSTABILITY.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE OK, SHEAR AND LIFT ARE BOTH VERY
STRONG. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS/WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. IF THE MOISTURE RETURN OVERACHIEVES (INTO THE 60S FOR
DEWPOINTS) THEN WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A PROBLEM SETTING
UP. OTHERWISE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING MOISTURE TOO LIMITED HOWEVER AND IT MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE.
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS ONE LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD SPARK UP A LITTLE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT LACKS
THE DEEPER LIFT OF THE MIDWEEK TROUGH FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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