320
FXUS63 KPAH 230227
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
927 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE LAST DAY OF SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RECORDS
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
- A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING A 30-60% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. STORM COVERAGE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW STILL, BUT
SHOULD WE GET STORMS THERE IS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- AFTER THE EARLY WEEK COOL DOWN, TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND WILL MAKE A RUN AT RECORDS AGAIN THURSDAY.
- LATER ON THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS
A 25-50% CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH ANOTHER
COOL DOWN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SPRING IS CERTAINLY HERE AS WE GRAPPLE WITH ROLLER COASTER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY WITH SEVERAL RECORDS POSSIBLE
FOR BOTH DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGHS. THIS IS DUE TO THE EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE POTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WINDS
ARE BREEZY TODAY THANKS TO STRONG MIXING AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS EVENING'S COLD FRONT. WITH THE
COLD FRONT COMES A 30-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE AND
A RATHER DRY PROFILE, CAMS HAVE VERY LIMITED CONVECTION COMING
THROUGH. POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.
IF SOME STORMS MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP, THEY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED WITH LCLS AROUND 1,200-1,400 M. THEY MAY ALSO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIT THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. MUCAPE IS AROUND 2,000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AROUND 7.5-8 DEGC/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 35-40 KTS.
THIS IS STILL A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT BUT THE SPC MARGINAL (LEVEL
1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE IS STILL WARRANTED. CONFIDENCE IN STORM
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE LOW. TIMING STILL LOOKS THE SAME AROUND 22Z-
04Z (5PM - 11PM) WITH THE AREA BEING CLEAR OF THE FRONT BY AROUND
06Z (1 AM). WINDS REMAIN BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL TO START THE WEEK. THEN, AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND BRINGS ANOTHER WARM UP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY MAKE ANOTHER RUN
AT RECORDS. ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER ON THURSDAY AND
BRINGS A 25-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH
05Z AT KEVV/KOWB. AT ALL TAF SITES, NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AT
12-22KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS BY 08-12Z, CONTINUING TO
DECREASE AND BECOMING LESS GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 05Z-11Z, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...RST
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