006
FXUS63 KPAH 131117
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
617 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITY, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
- AFTER FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ON AND OFF 20-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
- THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PRODUCE GOOD
CHANCES (40-75%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VERY DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR REGION TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING TO 20-25%
IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, AND 25-35% IN AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20MPH AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY CONDITIONS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS AND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH THE WARMING TREND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. WE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING MOISTURE, WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE
WEEKEND, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES
20-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF OUR COUNTIES BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT NORTH OF OUR REGION, AND WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE, THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES
30-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA,
THEN CHANCES RETREAT NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH THE BOUNDARY.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY.
BY LATE MONDAY, MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTH TEXAS. THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY MONDAY MORNING,
THEN SPREADS 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES SPREAD EAST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OF
60-75% IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, AND 40-60%
IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH MORE PRECISE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION, GOOD CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SCT-BKN080 CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 16Z, WITH
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY 16Z, THEN DECREASE TO AROUND
5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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