328
FXUS63 KPAH 251917
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
217 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE QUAD STATE
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
40-60% CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BEGINS TO DRY OUT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
60S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND THEN DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENNYRILE, BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
OWENSBORO AND MARION KENTUCKY AREAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET. IN THE MEANTIME, A STRAY, BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE.
A WEAK UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT WITH PLENTIFUL
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD INTO/THROUGH THE QUAD
STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 150-175% OF NORMAL, SO THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND, BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY, NO SHEAR, AND A LACK OF A STATIONARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM, ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORMTOTAL QPF THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK IS NOW 0.25"-0.50" ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH
0.50-1.0" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO HANG UP
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, BUT MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NBM IS TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS EVOLUTION, BUT LIKELY STILL HAS TOO MUCH POP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT BELOW NORMAL BOTH FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS. OF COURSE, THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS HUMIDITY.
LET'S GET THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HOPE WE CAN DRY OUT. IT IS NICE
TO MAKE THAT STATEMENT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN FOR MOST OF
THIS YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS SHOWERS PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE A
GOOD BET AT ALL SITES, AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KPAH.
CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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