067
FXUS63 KPAH 171148
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
648 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND A PORTION OF NORTHWEST KENTUCKY, WHILE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KENTUCKY LAKE AND LAKE
BARKLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-30 MPH AND GUSTING 35-50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.
- AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED (40-70%) THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND WEST
KENTUCKY, WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER WEST KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON.
- DRY, COOLER, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS,
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE QUAD STATE WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND
SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE WEAKEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WEST KENTUCKY, WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR LAKE BARKLEY AND KENTUCKY LAKE. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY
PUSH 30 MPH (20-45% CHANCE) OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, WHILE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 13 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 5 PM.
THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER SPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BACK INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI IS
RATHER FRIGHTENING WITH IMMENSE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR, THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DISCRETE AS THEY APPROACH THE QUAD STATE AFTER 10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH, BUT THE
SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG IN THE 0-1KM, 0-3KM, AND 0-6KM
LAYERS. IF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ENTER THE REGION, THE SHEAR WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THEM TO CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH AROUND 3 AM. TORNADOES,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND EVEN SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY IS QUITE MUDDLED AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS COULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD STATE,
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO
OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
AND MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEVELOPS STORMS ALONG
IT ROUGHLY FROM DONIPHAN TO PADUCAH TO MADISONVILLE AROUND 18Z.
THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN HEALTHY, BUT THE LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK. THE HREF INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT COULD CLIMB TO 2000J/KG, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK TO EAST OF THE
QUAD STATE. IF CLOUDS HOLD DOWN THE INSTABILITY, THURSDAY MAY BE
A COMPLETE DUD OVER OUR REGION.
A NICE DRY INTRUSION WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE QUAD STATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. QPF IS CURRENTLY IN THE 2-3" RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, SO A FLOODING THREAT COULD DEVELOP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING AND GUSTS
25-35KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KEVV, KOWB, AND KMVN. SCATTERED
TSRA WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FROM
AFTER 03Z. DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS, ONLY MENTIONED TSRA IN
PROB30 GROUPS AND DIDN'T MENTION IT AT ALL AT KPAH. THERE IS
SOME SIGN OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE CONVECTION FROM KCGI TO
KPAH, AND KOWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>089-092-093.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-109>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ014-018.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ007>009-011-012.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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