499
FXUS63 KPAH 041700
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH ROUGHLY 25
TO 50% COVERAGE) ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BRING DAILY PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF H5 RIDGING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. ANOTHER
MID- LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE
BROAD TROUGHING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. A DEEP 996
MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH A WEAK/DIFFUSE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BRING CONTINUED
DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MORE SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL ATTEMPT (BUT FAIL) TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA AND
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL INITIATE PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST CHANCES (30-50%) LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY
HOURS DURING THIS TIME, AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN. IN
TERMS OF ANY POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THE LONGER RANGE
CAMS SHOW ABOUT 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS SE MO AND
SW IL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTH AS H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPANDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS. THIS
WILL MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS, BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES. SINCE THE REGION (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST IN, NORTHWEST KY, AND THE PENNYRILE) WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
"RIDGE-RIDER" THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AS WELL DURING THIS PERIOD,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODIC LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING WITH BASES AROUND 2500 TO 5000FT. TONIGHT, PREDAWN
SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN AT THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY- FAVORED TERMINALS (CGI, PAH, AND MVN) BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06-13Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BECOME WESTERLY BUT REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page