427
FXUS63 KPAH 151905
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
105 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG
LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ROUGHLY A
50-80% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE TONIGHT (DENSE
FOG IS A QUARTER MILE OR LESS).
- A MAJOR WARMUP IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT WOULD PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60!
- THE NEXT CHANCE (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OFF ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. A STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION ALSO GIVES INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. IN FACT, HREF PROBABILITIES
SHOWS AROUND A 60-80% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN A HALF MILE
OVER WEST KY/SOUTHWEST IN AND A 40-50% CHANCE OF THE REST OF THE
AREA (DENSE FOG IS A QUARTER MILE). IT SEEM LIKELY THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE NEED LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
ZONAL TO RIDGED FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PORTIONED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THOSE FEATURES, WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE MANY PLACES WILL BE PUSHING CLOSE TO 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
70 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY! THOSE TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO
CHALLENGE SOME LONGER STANDING RECORDS IF THEY VERIFY!
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE QUAD STATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT BEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AN A BRIEF SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION. THE
GREATER CONCERN AND NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TIGHTENS UP ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN MO. AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
IL, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE AFORMENTIONED FEATURES;
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD, EVEN LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35-45KTS. A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME
AS WELL. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA; HOWEVER, MORE DETAILS NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
TIME PERIOD AND WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DEPART TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO DENSE FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO OR BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE BY OR AROUND 15Z MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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