433
FXUS63 KPAH 250558
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES (30-50%) PEAKING WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAT REMAINING IN PLACE
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO NUDGE UPWARDS,
ALLOWING HEAT INDEX READINGS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 BY
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A 500MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS, A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS US TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
(MOST LIKELY ELEVATED) ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
CAMS STRUGGLE TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 3KM NAM), BUT IF WE CAN TAP INTO
SUFFICIENT MLCAPE THEN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 25 KTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA ON THURSDAY, A REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER
HUMIDITY SURGES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD AND BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT
WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN U.S. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE 20-
22C RANGE, HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 AGAIN. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE MAY GET QUITE TOASTY IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEW POINTS CREEP UP AS WELL, BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEAT INDEX READINGS TO
POSSIBLY EXCEED 100 AGAIN. WHILE LREF PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 90
PEAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY (>90 PERCENT CHANCE) THEY REMAIN QUITE HIGH
(75-90%) EVEN INTO MID NEXT WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE RIDGE MAY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK EVEN.
THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.25" IS ONLY 15-25% THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE LREF. ANY ONE
LOCATION IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS THEN
TO RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SITUATES TO OUR EAST AND KEEPS A
DRY ADVECTION ON THE LOW LAYERS OF THE COLUMN AT FLIGHT
TERMINALS HERE. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK WAVE
OPENS UP AND SPILLS OUT OF THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES,
BRINGING MID-HIGH LEVEL BASES THAT SATURATE DOWN THE UPPER PART
OF THE COLUMN DURING THE FORECAST PACKAGE TIME. EXPECT AN
INTRODUCTION OF VFR CIGS IN THE PROCESS, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...PREVIOUS FCTER
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