199
FXUS63 KPAH 122331
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 15-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 64 AND THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA.
- THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 20-30% WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DAILY CHANCES (25-50%) OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. WEAK SW FLOW
IS TRYING TO ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION, BUT ROBUST DIURNAL MIXING IS LIMITING THIS. LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING,
SHOWERS CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST THE 15-30% RANGE, AND
AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LUCKY TO AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A TRACE.
ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
VALUES, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS RH VALUES FALLING TO 20-30% ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH STEADY N WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. IN FACT, THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS 50-80% PROBABILITIES OF RH VALUES FALLING
UNDER 20% IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HWO. THE
WIDESPREAD GREEN UP CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR
SUBSTANTIAL WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE THE PERSIST H5 RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY. FOR THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE EARLY SUMMER,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVING GOOD CHANCES (40-80%) OF REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA,
AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW
PATTERN. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A COUPLE CHANCES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECASTS, POPS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER, CLOSER TO 25-50%, PEAKING DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE POP UP NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION,
THERE WILL WILL BE A LOT OF DRY HOURS DESPITE THE FORECAST.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL IN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON MONDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-60%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS WINDS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 16-20KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL
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