341
FXUS63 KPAH 262300
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
600 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"
POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3-6" POSSIBLE.
- THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO BE MORE
LIMITED IN NATURE, BUT STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH.
- SUNDAY ONWARD BRINGS A MAJOR HEAT WAVE WITH A PATTERN SHIFT.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AFTER A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER SEMO AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST WHILE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS
EVENING WITH A RELATIVE LULL OVERNIGHT. THEN AS A SFC LOW SLIDES
ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S SEVERE
CONCERNS LOOK TO BE MORE LIMITED AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY RECOVERY THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.
THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE HYDRO THREAT THROUGH
TOMORROW. MOST OF THE AREA IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PRIOR RAINFALL.
THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TOMORROW A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGHT SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AND WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
TRAINING STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE OR
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN, AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
STARTING ON SUNDAY WITH MID 90S STARTING ON MONDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S WHICH
WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY OR EVEN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL BE
NECESSARY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD WILL FEATURE RESTRICTED BASES AND
VSBYS THRU ITS ENTIRETY. EXPECT THEMOST ROBUST TIMES OF PCPN TO
BE EARLY THIS EVENING, AGAIN LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW, AND THEN
AGAIN INTO THE EARLY PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST. SOME
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE NOTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PLANNING
PERIOD, THOUGH SMALL CHANCES DO LINGER.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
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