010
FXUS63 KPAH 241908
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
208 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT (15
TO 30%) INTO THURSDAY (20 TO 50%) AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULE OUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50 TO 80%) ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AFTER A COUPLE QUIET DAYS, A RETURN OF INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS (15-30%) ARE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GREATER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (25-50%) AS FORCING
RAMPS UP.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO YIELD AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES, BUT THE ADDED FORCING WILL AIDE IN
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR OR NORTH OF I-64. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64 WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE CURRENT
QPF OF 2-4" THERE HOLDS. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
PROGRESSIVE LOWER AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A 596 DM
H5 RIDGE SETUP UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING OUR HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER (HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S). DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105-110F MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT LEAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES THIS HIGH FOR SO MANY DAYS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
OR SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THOSE EXPOSED
FOR LONG DURATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S TO SW AROUND
4-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM THE SW AOA 5 KTS. SOME FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5KFT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SO HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT CGI, PAH, AND MVN BETWEEN 06-12Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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