510
FXUS63 KPAH 162347
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING AT 40 TO 60% EACH
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER GUSTY STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING 105 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. RELIEF
ARRIVES THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
ACROSS THE FA, WITH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON DURING
DIURNAL HEATING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY APPROACHES THE TRI-
STATE ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES PEAKING AROUND 40 TO 60%
EACH DAY. DESPITE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, POOR LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER SHEAR WILL FAVOR PULSE CONVECTION. PWAT'S OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT
CAN LEAD TO NUISANCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES IN MORE PRONE URBAN
LOCATIONS.
ON SATURDAY, SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM SFC-3KM LAPSE
RATES AND 25-35 K THETA-E DIFFERENCE WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK
FOR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNBURSTS, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA. RAIN
CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER, NEARING 105 DEGREES BY TUESDAY BEFORE A
COOL DOWN EVENTUALLY ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SHOWERS WILL FLIRT WITH MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SOME FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AT KPAH AND KMVN,
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE REGION
WILL SEE SCATTERED TSRA AGAIN. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION COULD BE
KMVN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DRS
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