089
FXUS63 KPAH 151832
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
132 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START FEELING MORE LIKE
SUMMER-TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF MID TO UPPER 80S
PUSHING INTO THE LOW 90S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (30-60%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (60-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
SLATED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODEST RISKS FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY EMERGE IN THIS PERIOD, MOSTLY LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
OVERALL A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND
PERIOD BEFORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST LEADS TO AMPLIFICATION
OF THE H50 PATTERN. CAPPING ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HERE, A WEAK MOISTURE POOL COULD CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A
STORM OR TWO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES ON
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW END POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL, WHICH IS BEING SHOWED IN
VARIOUS CAM SOLUTIONS. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXISTS ON SATURDAY WITH 30-60% CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL US WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BY TUESDAY, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND QUICKLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE START TO SEE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION GIVEN
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PWATS WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND 1.7
TO 1.8 INCHES WHICH SUGGEST A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY HIGH BASED CEILINGS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 9-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT STILL
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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