665
FXUS63 KPAH 220736
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 25 TO 50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
- A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
- A DAILY 15 TO 25% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR TYPICAL LATE
AUGUST VALUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING, STRONG H5 RIDGING
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH INCREASING
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WHILE ON A WEAKENING TREND, THIS
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BOOSTING FORECAST CAPE
VALUES TO 2500-3500 J/KG, ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1400
J/KG. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
(AROUND 30 KTS IN THE 00-06 KM LAYER), THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA, BRINGING A RETURN OF
QUIET WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME NW AS THE AREA
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND NORTHEAST
TROUGH. AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PREDICTABILITY IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN THESE SETUPS, SO TIMING OUT
THE PRECISE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS IS DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE.
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR TYPICAL LATE
AUGUST VALUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE; HOWEVER, SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AT CGI/PAH. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AZ/DWS
AVIATION...KC
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