173
FXUS63 KPAH 070339
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1039 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE AT 80 IS IN
SEMO ON SATURDAY.
- COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH EVENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF SITS OVER THE REGION TILL
FRIDAY WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON WE
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING OVERRUNNING SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST
TN BORDER COUNTIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT, LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MINIMIZE FOG
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.
WE START WARMING UP TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND WTIH TEMPERATURES BACK
TO AROUND NORMAL. THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
BRINGS BACK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS WE WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY
EVENING A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROLLS THROUGH AND BRINGS BACK
SHOWERS/STORMS. BEST CHANCES ARE THE NBM 50-80% CHANCES FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER, TAPERING OFF TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIMITED TO
AROUND 0.25" AT BEST.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80.
NBM CHANCES OF REACHING 80 ARE GREATEST OVER SEMO AT 50-70%. OUR
NEXT SYSTEM IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT ROLLS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NBM HAS 24 HR RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS AT A 60-75% CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. WITH THIS
BEING A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED SYSTEM, WE ARE WATCHING FOR
STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR
MONDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE WEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER
DARK.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...JGG
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