179
FXUS63 KPAH 231733
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1133 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS A 1030 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
I-64 CORRIDOR TO THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE AR/TN BORDER. STEADY
WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL GIVE THE AIR A BIT OF A
CHILL.
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THE CWA
REMAINS DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WAA
WILL INCREASE WITH THE SHORTWAVE'S ARRIVAL. HOWEVER, THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS REGION DEPICT A FREEZING RAIN PROFILE FROM THE PREDAWN
TO MID- MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, CONCERN IS GROWING FOR
A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ON THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE FOCUS FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT GLAZING
WOULD BE FOR AREAS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 13, ALL
OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KENTUCKY NORTH OF A
MORGANFIELD TO OWENSBORO LINE. THE LATEST METRO GUIDANCE KEEPS
ROAD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, BUT PATCHY SLICK
SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROAD
SURFACES. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE ISSUED
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, BRINGING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO END.
POPS WILL TAPER TO SILENT OR SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES, WHILE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THAT WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE EVENING. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ALOFT, STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY, MOST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTING JUST
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTER 06Z MONDAY, THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE THIS RAIN MOVE IN. RAIN WILL BE ONGOING MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SIGNALS
THAT HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
BUT EXACTLY WHERE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. THE TREND CONTINUES FOR IT TO
SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND WEST KY. WE ARE STILL
DEALING WITH EXTREMELY HIGH PWS (2 TO 3 SD OR OVER 300% OF NORMAL)
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE GEFS,
IT HAS SHIFTED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTH TO
INCLUDE MORE OF FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. STILL THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES
STORM TOTAL ACROSS A GOOD PART OF SOUTHEAST MO, FAR SOUTHERN IL AND
MOST OF WESTERN KY. STILL SEEING STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE FEEDING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. WE WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH THIS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS, AS THIS EVENT HAS THE CAPABILITY TO OVERACHIEVE ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODELED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF, SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, MODELS DO CONTINUE TO HINT AT LEAST
SOME MU CAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THIS INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS COULD MEAN SOME STRONG CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW AT THIS POINT.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WE WILL START TO GET DRY
SLOTTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL MEAN THE RAIN
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. THIS DECREASE IN POPS IS HANDLED WELL
BY THE LATEST NBM AND SEE NO REASON AT THIS JUNCTURE TO CHANGE TOO
MUCH, AS THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER, WE ARE PROBABLY HANGING
ONTO RAIN CHANCES TOO LONG INTO MONDAY EVENING AND CAN SEE FUTURE
FORECASTS DROPPING THOSE CHANCES EVENTUALLY AS THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM IS NARROWED IN.
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD WITH TIME AND IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A BIT STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS SO AM SURPRISED TO SEE CONTINUED LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PEGGING PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT. COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES RESULTED IN INCREASING THESE CHANCES. BY THE TIME THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD GET GOING IN OUR AREA, WE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR IT TO FALL AS RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WE COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE IT
ENDS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL 09Z, WHICH
IS WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN ACCOMPANIES THE LOWERED CIGS, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF -FZRA IN OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS
(KMVN/KEVV) UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING.
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW, BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...DWS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...SP
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