917
FXUS63 KPAH 300546
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1246 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S)
AND BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
(60-90%). THERE IS A LOW END THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
(5% OR LESS).
- DAILY CHANCES (20-50%) OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A PLUME
OF HIGHER MOISTURE (PWATS OF 2+ INCHES) CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS MAY SPREAD ACROSS
PART OF OUR CWA FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN FORCING FROM
THE WAVE HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES MAY
REACH 2000 J/KG IN PARTS OF MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THIS RESIDING BACK TO OUR WEST
IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 25-30 KTS. THUS A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA. THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS MAY BE OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD BE WHERE THE MAIN THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS WOULD RESIDE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT IT HANGS UP A BIT
TO AT LEAST GIVE THE KY PENNYRILE OR SOUTHWEST IN A WINDOW FOR SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS GOOD ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY. AGAIN, TALKING LOW END MARGINAL (5%) AT
BEST.
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAIN FRI-SAT (VIA THE NBM) RANGE
FROM 40 TO 80%, HIGHEST NEAR I-64 AND IN THE KY PENNYRILE AND LOWEST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO. LREF PROBABILITIES ARE ABOUT 10-20% LOWER.
THERE'S ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE AT PICKING UP AT LEAST 1" ACROSS THE
EVV-TRI STATE REGION, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER TROUGH FORMS A CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODELS VARY ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS SHUNTS IT FURTHER EAST OVER
THE APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER THE TN
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME. THE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH OF OUR
REGION HANGS ONTO DAILY RAIN CHANCES (WHICH WOULD PRIMARILY BE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING). WEST KY SEEMS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW NORMAL (LOWER 80S) BEFORE
GRADUALLY MODIFYING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. UPPER HEIGHT RISES BY MID TO
LATE WEEK MAY PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO 90 BY THURSDAY, WITH THE
LREF SUGGESTING A 60-80% CHANCE OF THAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT WITH CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES BEING MET AT MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, WIND MAY
REMAIN UP JUST ENOUGH TO LARGELY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AND A FEW-SCT CU FIELD IS ALSO POSSIBLE BEGINNING
LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AOB 7 KTS FROM THE ENE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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