591
FXUS63 KPAH 222249
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY AIR IS IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW. TONIGHT'S
LOWS ARE LIKELY IN THE TEENS (60-100%). WIND CHILLS TOMORROW
MORNING HAVE A GREATER THAN 70% OF BEING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- A WARMING TREND KICKS OFF TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
- AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF MORE THAN A
HALF INCH OVER WEST KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 449 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
COLD AND BREEZY TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THANKS TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT'S WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. AS THE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST, MORE COLD AIR IS FUNNELED INTO THE REGION. NBM HAS A 60-
100% CHANCE OF TONIGHT'S LOWS BEING IN THE TEENS. GIVEN THE WINDS,
THE LREF HAS AN OVERWHELMING AREA OF GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TOMORROW MORNING. TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
BY TUESDAY THAT SFC HIGH MOVES TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS AND KICKS OFF A WARMING TREND. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND THEN THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE RISK DUE TO THE MIN RHS IN THE 30-35% RANGE AND POSSIBLY LOWER.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT A SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND RAMP UP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 50-80% (HIGHEST
OVER WEST KY). POPS THEN TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QPF IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE WITH WPC PROBABLY
BEING OVERDONE AGAIN. NBM HAS A 50-60% CHANCE OF AMOUNTS OVER 0.5"
OVER WEST KY (HEAVIEST), THE LREF IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THAT (30-
50%).
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MIGHT COME THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS IN
THE EURO AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BUT NOT THE GFS SOLUTIONS. IF THE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH, IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ABOUT A 20% CHANCE CURRENTLY).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
ONGOING LOW VFR STRATUS ACROSS SE IL, SW IN, AND NW KY WILL SEE
INCREASING COVERAGE TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF
SATURATION PASSES NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
EVENTUALLY SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. WINDS WILL
BE STEADY FROM THE NW AROUND 9-14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON, THEN RELAX TO
AROUND 4-6 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DWS
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