454
FXUS63 KPAH 141833
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (50S)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (60S) THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A 60-90%/50-80%
CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH 70 DEGREES OR BETTER NEXT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK.
- A RAINY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROJECTED
TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.5" WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A DEEP DIGGING SHORTWAVE IS WORKING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE LOWER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
LEADS THE TROUGH WITH A 1006 MB SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND A BROAD BAROCLINIC LEAF SPREADING FROM IOWA DOWN TO THE
WESTERN GULF. LIGHT RAIN IS FORMING UP OVER THE QUAD-STATE AMID
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE
CWA TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH WAA AND EVENTUALLY JET-
LEVEL LIFT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT ONCE IT GETS
STARTED. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.5
INCHES OR SO, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER. PRECIP SHOULD END BY 8-10 AM SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
MONDAY. A RIDGING FORMS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
A BROAD WEST SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAX AT 140-160 KTS ESTABLISHES
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH MID WEEK.
THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN THE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT BUT FOR NOW
THE THEME SEEMS TO SURROUND A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
WITH A 998 MB OR SO SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
LOOKS TO GIVE US SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH, BUT FROM THE SHAPE/POSITION OF THE JET I'D IMAGINE SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING AND SHAPE FLUCTUATIONS ARE YET TO COME.
MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS A LITTLE UNDERDONE BASED ON THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE GULF, AND SHEAR IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL BUT IT IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT.
CIPS ANALOG AND CSU-MLP SEVERE ELEMENTS ARE SHOWING SOME DEGREE
OF FAVORABILITY FOR SEVERE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT IT JUST LOOKS
LIKE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, STARTING PRETTY LIGHT BUT
INTENSITY AND LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST OVERALL PRECIP/VISBY REDUCTIONS PROBABLY IN THE 02-07Z
TIMEFRAME. PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW BUT LOWER
CEILINGS CURRENTLY LOOK LIKELY TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 18Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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