102  
FXUS63 KPAH 180758  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
258 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, A BRIEF TORNADO OR  
TWO, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  
 
- BREEZY, DRY AND, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY.  
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- A RETURN OF MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN  
FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
ONGOING LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS ON  
TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. EXPECTING AN H5 TROUGH PHASE OVER  
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES AS IT MOVES ACROSS MO AND IL SATURDAY MOVING  
NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG WAA WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB  
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON (NEAR OR AT RECORD  
HIGH VALUES) ALONG WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS WILL YIELD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF  
MUCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL,  
WITH LESSER VALUES FURTHER TO THE EAST.  
 
EXPECTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY  
SCATTERED STORMS IN THIS AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH THE  
ACTIVITY QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY LATE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE STORM COMPLEX WILL PUSH EASTWARD  
AND WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY WANES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS,  
EVENTUALLY EXITING THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE  
FORECAST AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND FALLING  
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, INCREASING UPPER- LEVEL WIND  
SUPPORT AND A LOW- LEVEL JET DEVELOPING SHOULD COMPENSATE A BIT.  
THE MAIN RISKS LOOK TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND  
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL STORM  
DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  
FOLKS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY AWARE OF THE LATEST  
FORECAST INFORMATION AND HAVE PLACE TO SEE SHELTER SHOULD  
LIGHTNING OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN.  
 
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE STAYED STEADY AROUND  
0.75-1.50", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2.0" POSSIBLE OVER  
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE  
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH  
FLOODING, BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
WHERE THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OCCUR.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.  
WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
(25 TO 35 MPH). TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY  
BELOW VALUES SUNDAY, WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF  
NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING  
SMALL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN250, NO VSBY  
RESTRICTIONS AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS.  
SCT-BKN060 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 13Z  
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD  
EAST ACROSS TAF SITES AFTER 18Z, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT  
KCGI AND KMVN MAINLY BY 21Z, AND AT KPAH/KEVV/KOWB AROUND 00Z.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 13Z TO  
AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS, THEN TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS  
OF 20-25KTS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...DWS  
AVIATION...RST  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IL Page
The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab MO Page
Main Text Page