999
FXUS63 KPAH 311824
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
124 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20-40%) OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO, WESTERN KY, AND THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- AFTER A LULL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DAILY CHANCES (40-70%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ZERO TO FIVE
DEGREES) ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
BRING MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA INTO THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER
PARTS OF SEMO AND SW IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE THICKEST PLUMES OVER THE AREA. THE SMOKE WILL
ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SW IN, SO
HAVE REMOVED THOSE MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM NE TO SW, BRINGING A SHIFT TO NE WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING H5 RIDGING.
HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL POOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF SEMO, WESTERN KY, AND FAR
SOUTHERN IL. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE, WHICH COULD YIELD A FEW GUSTY DOWNBURSTS AND SMALL
HAIL. CHATTED WITH SPC ABOUT ADDING A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TO
THIS AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THEIR CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MAKE
THIS ADDITION FOR NOW.
AFTER SUNDAY, H5 RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND OVER THE REGION,
BRINGING A FULL STOP TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGING BECOMES SUPPRESSED. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS BEING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (50-70%).
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN TREND ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOWER 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THICKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW-SCT CU DECKS AROUND 5-7KFT
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SMOKE COVERAGE THINS
SLIGHTLY. ADDITION CU DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT PAH AND CGI
AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE WNW AT 6-12 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS TIMES, BECOME W AOA 5 KTS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TO EVV,
OWB, AND MVN AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...NONE.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /7 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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