525
FXUS63 KPAH 261114
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
614 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
PROBABLY WAS PROVIDING A LITTLE LIFT, ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A 4-5KFT
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHEASTERN
MO, AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF KY. BEST GUESS IS THAT, THOUGH THERE
SHOULD BE SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AS TIME GOES ON
THIS MORNING, CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE MS RIVER SOUTH OF CAIRO
UNTIL MID MORNING, AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP. OTHERWISE, AMPLE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DEEP NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WED AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WED NIGHT AND
THU AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS REPLACED BY MOISTENING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FLATTENED BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE THU, A WEST-TO-EAST
SURFACE FRONT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN IL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO.
AFTER BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT AOB FREEZING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE,
THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WARMING WED AND THU EVENTUALLY TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALONG A
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NRN MO AND IL. HOWEVER, SHOULD SEE
AT AT LEAST SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
OUR REGION, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION BY SUNRISE SAT, THEN PASS TO THE EAST BY EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT, IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TSTMS MAY BE LIMITED ONLY TO WESTERN KY ON SAT JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MAY BE TO THE NORTH AND
THE BEST LOWER TROP MOISTURE MAY BE TO THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN
IL SAT AFTERNOON. THE PEAK QPF SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL LIFTING...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL
AND SW IN, DESPITE A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO
NEAR OF BELOW THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
VFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION, MAINLY NEAR THE MS RIVER. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS OR LESS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, SUBSIDING AFTER NIGHTFALL. DRY AIR SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE NIGHT, DESPITE NEARLY CALM WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page