697
FXUS63 KPAH 160515
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED; JUST A SPOTTY LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL ON GRASSY SURFACES MAY OCCUR.
- WINTER-LIKE COLD TEMPERATURES THAT START THE NEW WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS TONIGHT THAT
DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES; THIS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS AND TRANSLATE TO WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH 70S BY THURSDAY CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND AND A FEW 80S
APPEARING HERE AND THERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE FRONT HAS MADE ITS PASSAGE, SO LINGERING SHOWERS DEPART
WITH IT VERY SOON. FURTHER UPSTREAM, THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
IS HEADED THIS WAY, AND INCLUDES SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST BRUSH OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS WILL GENERALLY BE NON-IMPACTFUL, BUT A FEW ISOLATED
SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES,
ARE A POSSIBILITY AS TEMPERATURES NOSEDIVE BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP.
THIS PLUNGE OF COLD AIR HERALDS ABOUT A 48 HOUR PERIOD THAT
WILL FEEL LIKE A RETURN OF WINTER. THE COLDEST AIR COMES
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THAT'S IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF OUR RECORD LOWS FOR
TUESDAY MARCH 17, WHICH ARE AS FOLLOWS: EVV-13 (1900), PAH-19
(1941), CGI-22 (1967), POF-19 (1941), AND MDH-3 (1900). ADD IN A
LITTLE WIND AND WE'LL GET DAYBREAK WIND CHILLS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE LARGELY IN
THE 30S, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 40S MAY SNEAK INTO THE OZARKS.
TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL "FEEL LIKE" 20S THANKS TO THE
STILL STIFF NWLIES.
TUESDAY NIGHT IS COLD, WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, SO NOT QUITE
AS COLD. BUT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE PICTURE
BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR COLDEST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS ENERGY SKIRTS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH BUT HAS
ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE HERE TO POTENTIALLY DUST UP GRASSY
SURFACES IN OUR FAR NORTH IF IT OVER-ACHIEVES.
NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS...WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MAKE THEIR
RETURN OVER THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, AND JUDGING BY THE 6-10
AND 8-14 DAY ABOVE NORMAL PROJECTIONS, THEY SHOULD STICK AROUND
AWHILE. 70S REAPPEAR BY THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE INTO/THRU THE
WEEKEND, AND A FEW 80S HERE OR THERE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WELL. THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRIER WARMTH WITH LITTLE
TO NO PCPN CHANCES ON THE FORESEEABLE HORIZON AFTER THE MID
WEEK BRUSH CHANCE. THIS TREND TOO MAY STICK AROUND WITH THE
LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS SUGGESTING BELOW NORMAL PCPN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
BREEZY NW WINDS MAY GUST 25-30KTS THRU MORNING AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT BEHIND THE RECENT FROPA. CIGS SHOULD LINGER
MAINLY MVFR UNTIL LATE MORNING, WHERE THEY LIFT TO VFR IN THE
SOUTH BUT STAY BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR IN THE NORTH. BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME OVER THE BACK HALF OF THE
FORECAST, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN UP WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ MONDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
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