690
FXUS63 KPAH 130547
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WE WILL AGAIN SEE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH BOTH
HIGHS TODAY AND WARM LOW READINGS TONIGHT.
- 60% TO 80% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY. 30% TO 70% CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, RANGING FROM LOWEST
NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND WEST KENTUCKY/TENNESSE BORDERS
TO HIGHEST NEAR INTERSTATE 64. 20% TO 40% CHANCES WILL LINGER
ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- IT WILL BE DRY, VERY BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT 8 TO 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY, WITH READINGS BY MONDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN
HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD TO RECORD VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN
YESTERDAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE
THE AIR TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5MPH WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
70 DEGREES, RESULTING IN SOME RECORD WARM LOWS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BRING READINGS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SINK A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARD, THEN
INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA (FA) TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LINGERING
ACROSS OUR REGION INTO EARLY THURSDAY. 20-35% CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT, WITH 60-80% CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. 30-70% CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SO THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH LATE THURSDAY, THEN IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE COLD FRONT, WITH JUST 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF WEST KENTUCKY.
IT WILL BE DRY, VERY BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER FRIDAY AS WE SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE COOLEST PERIOD WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE
RANGE, AND LOWS OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES. WITH CALM WINDS, PATCHY
FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND, WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONTINUES REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-10KTS GUSTING TO 14-17KTS DURING THE DAY,
THEN DECREASE AGAIN FOR THE EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...ATL
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