912
FXUS63 KPAH 100421
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MILD. THERE IS A BETTER
THAN 50% CHANCE THAT WE EXCEED 65F FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. IF WE SEE A 70
DEGREE READING, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE OZARK COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST MO, OR ALONG THE KY-TN BORDER.
- RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT. THERE IS
ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE THAT RAINFALL EXCEEDS ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH, AND THAT WILL BE ALONG THE KY-TN BORDER, WHERE IT IS
STILL AN ALMOST CERTAINTY TO BE MAINTAINED AT OR BELOW ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY, AND REMAIN THERE,
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK; IT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
- THE WET WEEKEND IS STILL ON TAP. CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTALS
IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE MAY MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE AS
THE EVENT NEARS, AS EVENTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON THE STILL WOBBLING TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOCLEAR
SKIES AND EVAPORATING SNOW COVER.
A MILD DAY TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR IN THE 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS WE WARM, WE ALSO MOISTEN UP
A LITTLE BIT, AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN CHANCES THAT ENTER THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON CARRY-ON OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS APPROACH/PASSAGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD
NOT EXCEED ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH, AND IN MOST LOCATIONS MAY NOT
EXCEED ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE ALONG THE KY-TN BORDER.
AFTER FROPA, WE COOL DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, INTO
THE WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S DURING THIS TIME, WHICH IS STILL NEAR OR IN MANY CASES,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
A BETTER RAIN CHANCE EMERGES AS THE WEEK'S END APPROACHES. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE BLEND MODELING SUGGESTS SOMEWHERE IN THE 1.5 TO
2.5 INCH RANGE FORECAST STORM TOTAL AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IT IS PROBABLE THESE AMOUNTS WILL
INCREASE OR DECREASE DEPENDING UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH/MONITOR. THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT VALUE ADD-IN OF THE EC/GFS SUGGESTS THE
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WINNING OUT AMONGST THE MYRIAD SOLUTIONS,
WHICH CAUSES THE NBM TO DRIVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST, BUT THAT CHANCE IS NOT ZERO. AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS CHANCE MAY RE-EMERGE WITH FUTURE SOLUTIONS.
A WARM PATTERN CARRIES THRU THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARMARKED FOR US
WITHIN THE OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPS AT CGI
OVERNIGHT. LLWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT EACH TAF SITE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING UNDER A SHARP LOW- LEVEL INVERSION.
THE LLWS SHOULD MIX OUT A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
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