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FXUS63 KPAH 121715
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1115 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHILLY MORNING WILL GREET US TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
- A COUPLE SMALL CHANCES (20-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY. THUS AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO A NICE REBOUND BY AFTERNOON
(EVEN REACHING 50S ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE REGION). FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE FLAT EARLY IN THE WEEK, DESPITE STILL BEING SOMEWHAT
TROUGHY. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY, AND EVEN WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO OUR CWA THEN. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MO MAY REACH THE MID 60S
EVEN! THERE IS ROUGHLY A 40-80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MO (HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS).
A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS MID WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR SOME PRECIP TO REMAIN AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE COOLS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF A DUSTING
(0.1 -0.2") ARE ROUGHLY 20-30% IN THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY AND
ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY OF IL/IN, WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER WEST.
DESPITE THIS POSSIBILITY, THE WARM TEMPERATURES BEFOREHAND WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED OR GRASSY SURFACES.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL SOUTH INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE A DECENT BET (30-60% CHANCE OF
OCCURRING) THURSDAY MORNING AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
(50-80% OF REMAINING BELOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER). WHILE
SLIGHT MODERATION IS ANTICIPATED BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY, IT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
WHILE MODEL TO MODEL VARIABILITY CONTINUES NEXT WEEKEND, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GET
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MAY BE EVEN COLDER
THAN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. CURRENT PROBABILITY OF HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW 32 ARE AROUND 50-60% FOR SUNDAY AND THERE IS ABOUT A 70-80%
CHANCE FOR LOWS FALLING BELOW 20. WHILE LESS LIKELY, THERE IS EVEN
AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR TEMPS FALLING BELOW 10 DEGREES. WE MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS SATURDAY AS WELL, WITH THE CURRENT
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A DUSTING BEING AROUND 20-40% (HIGHEST IN
OUR NORTHEAST).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20-23 KTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
UNTIL SOME FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH IN THE EVENING HOURS,
THEN BACK TO SKC. WIND WILL GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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