997
FXUS63 KPAH 132302
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
602 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105-115 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH
DAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE WHERE
UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST
TERRITORY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY ARE PUSHING EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE QUAD STATE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE QUAD STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AND LINGER OVERHEAD INTO SUNDAY.
THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY ATTEMPTED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 8
PM SUNDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY THE TRIPLE DIGITS,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE NET RESULT WILL STILL
BE HEAT INDICES OF 105+ EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S EACH
NIGHT, SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
AN INITIAL NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE
WEST, TROUGH EAST PATTERN, RESULTING IN SOME MINOR WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW DIPPING INTO THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. GIVEN PLENTY RESIDUAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY, A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
POP BACK NORTHEAST OVER THE QUAD STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AROUND 5-8 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND A
DIURNAL CU DECK TOMORROW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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