539
FXUS63 KPAH 260806
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH CONTINUES TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OVER
THE OZARK FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER(6KFT) WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND DRY DAY
FOR THE QUAD STATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHEAR IS VERY WEAK, SO ANY
STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK, BUT THEY COULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A VERY CONCERNING SEVERE
WEATHER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE QUAD STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAPE OF 2000-4000J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION, WHILE 0-3KM SRH VALUES CLIMB TO THE
300-400M2/S2 RANGE. MUCH OF THAT SRH IS IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER,
LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE IN THE NORTH,
WHILE THE WEAKEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY,
BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT WARM ADVECTION FORCING WILL
WIPE OUT THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. IF
THE STORMS ARE STILL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WHEN THEY DEVELOP OVER
OR REACH THE AREA, SIGNIFICANT, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL (2+"). IF AND WHEN THE
STORMS FORM INTO A LINE, THE TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE BOTH
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND SPIN UP POTENTIAL WITH
MESOVORTICES ALONG THE LINE. EF-2 TORNADOES WOULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE. THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THE CAMS ARE NOW GIVING US A MORE DETAILED LOOK AT THE EVENT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEW RRFS EVEN GOES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT
IS QUITE CONCERNING THAT THE HREF AND RRFS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER 00Z (POSSIBLY AFTER 03Z) AND KEEP THE
COVERAGE MORE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. OF COURSE,
THIS WOULD LEAD TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA, AND COULD PUSH THE EVENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN THE EAST.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE FOCUS FOR THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE
TO OUR NORTH FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS AREA HAS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
UPPER SUPPORT, AND SHEAR. THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, TIMING, COVERAGE, AND MODE REMAIN ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE. HOPEFULLY, ADDITIONAL CAM DATA WILL BRING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE QUAD STATE BEHIND THE
MONDAY SYSTEM, AND THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
SURFACE WAVE AND PUSH IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANOTHER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE EXACT PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
AREA IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AND ITS PATH WILL BE THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THREAT.
FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE REGION COULD BE
IMPACTED. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, SO THIS
WOULD BE A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE QUAD STATE WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NICE COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TO GO ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. PRIMARY CLOUD
COVER WILL JUST BE SOME HIGH CLOUD FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SWITCH AROUND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8
KNOTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page