071
FXUS63 KPAH 072345
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK, BEFORE MORE NORMAL JANUARY COLD HITS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A LINGERING RISK POSSIBLY OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- OFF AND ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE
AND A QUARTER INCHES OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE; LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN EVOLVING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OFFERS MORE OF THE
SAME TODAY...MARGINAL 2-5% RISK ZONES THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL, BUT THE
OTHER PARAMETERS, MARGINAL AT BEST. IF THE MODELS ARE OFF ON
RETURN MOISTURE/DEW POINTS, BETTER INSTABILITY MAY BE OFFERED UP
FOR BETTER POTENTIAL THURSDAY PM/EVENING (NOT DISSIMILAR TO OUR
LAST EVENT). OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A BATTLE FRIDAY VS BETTER
CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH TIME, NOT UNUSUAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
QPF WILL HOLD A SIMILAR STORY OF BETTER CHANCES SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM, BUT WE STILL ARE ON
THE HOOK FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH NORTH, MAYBE UPWARD TO AN INCH
MORE IN THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD NOT GIVE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES, EVEN IF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PREVAIL.
A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONAL JANUARY COLD TEMPERATURE PATTERN
HITS AFTER FROPA FOR THE WEEKEND ON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
PERSISTENCE OF LOWER MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OFFERED BY
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE HREF PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
PEGGED BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AT KCGI AND KPAH AND THEN IN THE
EARLY MORNING AT KMVN AND LATER MORNING AT KEVV AND KOWB.
DECIDED TO KEEP THEM AT OR ABOVE 1KFT FOR NOW.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH
15-25KTS POSSIBLE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page