525
FXUS63 KPAH 221734
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1234 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE, IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE AT 250 MB, ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHTLY
DEGRADED EASTERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE CWA REMAINS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS PATTERN NONETHELESS, AND THE RIDGE AXIS IS
SET COMFORTABLY ALONG A POSITIVE SLOPE FROM LAREDO, TEXAS,
THROUGH TO LAKE SUPERIOR. EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED BY MID-DAY SATURDAY, THOUGH
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN-MOST TROUGH
EXISTS BETWEEN MODELS. CURRENTLY, THE 12Z GFS INDICATES A
TUESDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITH A VORT MAX OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER, 06Z ECMWF CONTAINS A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT AND A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER SHORTWAVE CENTERED ON
WESTERN IOWA. ENSEMBLE MODELING (GEFS) REMAINS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF THE TROUGH’S EXACT LOCATION, POOR
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF WILL STRONGLY INHIBIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, YET ALONE PRECIPITATION. SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
BUT IT IS DRY FOR NOW.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO SURFACE FLOW AND CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED,
AND SIMILAR MORNING FOG CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOMORROW MORNING
AROUND BODIES OF WATER. ANY FOG SHOULD ERODE WITH SURFACE
HEATING BY 15Z.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
GROUND FOG NEAR BODIES OF WATER LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLIGHT IMPEDIMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJW/JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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