102
FXUS63 KPAH 180758
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- BREEZY, DRY AND, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- A RETURN OF MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
ONGOING LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS ON
TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. EXPECTING AN H5 TROUGH PHASE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES AS IT MOVES ACROSS MO AND IL SATURDAY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG WAA WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON (NEAR OR AT RECORD
HIGH VALUES) ALONG WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS WILL YIELD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL,
WITH LESSER VALUES FURTHER TO THE EAST.
EXPECTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS IN THIS AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH THE
ACTIVITY QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE STORM COMPLEX WILL PUSH EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY WANES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
EVENTUALLY EXITING THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND FALLING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, INCREASING UPPER- LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT AND A LOW- LEVEL JET DEVELOPING SHOULD COMPENSATE A BIT.
THE MAIN RISKS LOOK TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
FOLKS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY AWARE OF THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION AND HAVE PLACE TO SEE SHELTER SHOULD
LIGHTNING OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN.
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE STAYED STEADY AROUND
0.75-1.50", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2.0" POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH
FLOODING, BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OCCUR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.
WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
(25 TO 35 MPH). TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW VALUES SUNDAY, WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
SMALL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN250, NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS.
SCT-BKN060 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 13Z
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EAST ACROSS TAF SITES AFTER 18Z, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
KCGI AND KMVN MAINLY BY 21Z, AND AT KPAH/KEVV/KOWB AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 13Z TO
AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS, THEN TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25KTS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...RST
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