379
FXUS63 KPAH 150410
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1110 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DANGEROUS LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR AT RECORD LEVELS WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS WELL.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, ALONG WITH A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE MUCH-ADVERTISED LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE BEGINS TODAY, AS VERY
STRONG H5 RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 600 DM AND
850MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND 20-22C EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. BOTH VALUES ARE AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL YIELD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S (POSSIBLY ISOLATED LOW
100S) AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
DURING THIS TIME. BOTH THE FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD HOT/WARM VALUES THIS WEEK. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
GREATEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW DOWNWARD INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DUE TO MOISTURE BEING
EXTRACTED FROM THE SOIL. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING IF THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BREACH THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LATE SEASON NATURE OF THE HEAT AND
IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS POSSIBLE.
THE H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME
NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE
COLD FRONT TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WINDS HAVE BECOME
CALM AT KPAH AND THEY ARE ALREADY NEAR SATURATION. USED A TEMPO
TO MENTION MVFR FOG 09Z-13Z JUST TO BE SAFE. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE PERSISTENT AND FOG IS STILL NOT EXPECTED. SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KTS IN THE MORNING AND WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST 14-17KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY, SEP 15:
CGI: 96 (2025)
MDH: 106 (1939)
EVV: 99 (1939)
PAH: 102 (1939)
POF: 101 (1939)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, SEP 16:
CGI: 99 (2019)
MDH: 101 (1927)
EVV: 99 (1898)
PAH: 97 (2019)
POF: 101 (1927)
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT /8
PM EDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ004-005-007>022.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ001>003-006.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS
CLIMATE...DWS
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