299
FXUS63 KPAH 182342
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE 20 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING NORTHEAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVANSVILLE
TRI-STATE AND WABASH RIVER VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED
TORNADOES, AND SOME HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-35 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO MORNING.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY, WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SEVERE WEATHER AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS THE MAIN
CONCERN ON THURSDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. A BROAD
ELONGATED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROVIDE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT QUAD OF A 150+ KT JET MAX
AT 250 MB APPROACHES. AT THE SFC, A 994 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
BY THE EVENING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. SPC HAS EXTENDED THE
SLIGHT RISK SOUTHWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER IN THEIR D2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK, AND HAS ALSO INCREASED THE RISK OF SOME HAIL IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SPIN UP TORNADOES.
THE CAMS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED STORM
COVERAGE AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE AFORMENTIONED JET MAX
MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA WITH THE BEST 500
MB PVA FOCUSED TOWARDS THE WABASH VALLEY AND EVANSVILLE TRI-
STATE REGION. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST FOR STORM
COVERAGE WITH IT BEING CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING AND TRIPLE
POINT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OUTSIDE OF THIS REGION, CONVECTION
WILL BE HIT OR MISS WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING VERY LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL. THERE ALSO REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AS THE HRRR BEGINS CI AS EARLY AS MIDDAY WHILE THE ARW IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE EVENING.
DESPITE QUESTIONS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND TIMING, THE PARAMETERS
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. THE HREF/HRRR SUPPORTS 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE AND 20 TO 30 KTS OF SFC-1 KM SHEAR. COMBINED WITH STP
VALUES OF 1 TO 2 AND SFC-1KM SRH VALUES OF 200 M^2/S^2 MAXED
OUT OVER THE WABASH VALLEY, ALL HAZARDS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WILL BE SUPPORTED. DUE TO THE FREEZING LEVELS BEING LOW WITH A
WBZ AROUND 750 MB, SPC'S INCREASED HAIL RISK MAKES SENSE,
ESPECIALLY INITIALLY WHEN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A BROKEN LINEAR LINE.
OVERALL, A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING, BUT SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN WITH THE GREATER RISK BEING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. IN
ADDITIONAL TO THE SEVERE RISK, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS
A CONCERN ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. A DRY LINE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL SEND HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMETING TO 20%
OR LOWER FOR A FEW HOURS. USED A BLEND OF THE HREF AND RAP FOR
DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER MIXING. ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30 TO 35 MPH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAIN TRANQUIL MOST OF THE TIME AS A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL
BRING A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY ENDING AS
A MIX OF WET SNOW SATURDAY EVENING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE SYSTEM MORE SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES PROGGED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH CIGS TO LOWER INTO AT LEAST IFR TERRITORY AND
QUITE POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF LIFR (ESPECIALLY AT KPAH/KCGI). WHILE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER STRATUS DECK, THERE IS
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT (SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DENSE) EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEND TO THINK WE
MAY RETAIN JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LARGELY PREVENT THE DENSE FOG.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT FOR NOW KEPT THE BCFG MENTION OF IFR
VSBYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MID-LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
BECOMING SUSTAINED 12-16 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 KTS. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH NORTHERN TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THESE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT EASTERN TERMINALS MAY
RETAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ098-106-
107.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...SP
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