053
FXUS63 KPAH 011149
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID
70S BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS WITH POPS PEAKING
(80-100%) IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- SMALL RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) LINGER SATURDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SUNDAY BRINING DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST IN
THE ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERWARD,
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER VALUES BETWEEN
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH BEFORE DYING DOWN IN THE
EVENING.
THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. POPS WILL PEAK (80-100%) DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH SOME MODEST 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES EXIST WITH THESE SHOWERS, INSTABILITY REMAINS POOR.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. QPF STORM TOTALS CONTINUE TO SIT BETWEEN A HALF INCH
AND AN INCH FOR THIS EVENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS LOW (5-10%) DUE TO THE LACK OF INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS
AND DRY PRIOR CONDITIONS.
SMALL (10-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE COOL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD STARTING WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND MID CLOUDS ENTERING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SSW/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AT 15Z
ACROSS SITES AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
WHERE LOWER CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH
RAIN SHOWERS BRINGING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SITES MAINLY AFTER 06Z. MVN WILL BEGIN SEEING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...AZ
DISCUSSION...AZ
AVIATION...AZ
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