669
FXUS63 KPAH 280532
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1232 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 105 AND 110 MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HEATWAVE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING AFTER AN EVENTFUL AND BUSY
AFTERNOON YESTERDAY. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE AFTER 7-9Z TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT CONTINUES TO BE VARY A BIT. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE
GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN IL, INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PARTS OF
THE PENNYRILE. 20-25 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ONGOING. A MAXIMUM OF PW IS NOTED AROUND
2.2 IN OVER MOST OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TRAINING IS A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE RAINFALL RATES
DON'T SEEM TO BE AS INTENSE, MANY OF THESE AREAS HAVE PICKED UP
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH VERY SATURATED GROUND. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH FOR W KY, S IL, AND SW IN CONTINUES TILL 12Z.
TODAY SEES A PATTERN SHIFT TAKING PLACE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE AS THIS RIDGING DEVELOPS. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY FOR HEAT INDICES AT OR GREATER
THAN 105 DEGREES. RIDGING EXPANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGH FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110+ DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR NOW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE WEEK WHEN GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SUGGEST THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN A BIT AND MOVING EASTWARD POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
ACTIVE CONVECTION STILL AT KPAH/KOWB AT THIS WRITING MAY LINGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE EXPECT CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO LESSEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES, AS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT OTHER
TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT
AND WHERE THAT DOES NOT OCCUR, POTENTIALLY LOWER RESTRICTED
BASES OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS/FOG...SO HAVE INCLUDED THOSE
POTENTIAL FLIGHT CONCERNS AS WELL. MORE GENERAL AND EXPANSIVE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MORE CONCLUSIVELY RETURN TO VFR WILL OCCUR TMRW,
ESP DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /1 PM EDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /9 PM
EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>022.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page