662  
FXUS63 KPAH 230447  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1147 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021  
 
MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION  
TONIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI  
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS BY AROUND 06Z. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ONLY  
SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST BY DAYBREAK WITH THE WAVE BECOMING  
LESS DEFINED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL CONFINE SLIGHT  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN HALF OF COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL  
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN  
OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021  
 
TWO SYSTEMS OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM. FIRST IS FRIDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY. REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING A S/WV TROF  
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS  
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWERS A GOOD BET, WITH SOME  
ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  
 
SECOND SYSTEM IS NEXT WEEK, DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. A LARGER  
SCALE POSITIVE TILT TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP EITHER OVER THE  
CENTRAL U.S. OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTIONS ARE MORE  
LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS  
WELL. JUST A MATTER OF TIMING AT THIS POINT.  
 
WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY LOOKS DRY, WITH A WARMING TREND.  
MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE AND WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, BUT THERE WILL  
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWERING OF CLOUDINESS.  
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS, WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON VSBYS  
IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN  
SE MISSOURI AND SW KENTUCKY IN THE 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS  
WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 3K FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS  
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RST  
AVIATION...MY  
 
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