148
FXUS63 KPAH 201748
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1248 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WITH A BRIEF DRY PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- AN UNSETTLED HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY. IT DOES APPEAR THE BULK
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY MAY END UP DRY THOUGH. THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK.
- THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE THAT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE QUAD
STATE EXCEED 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES START OUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT
TWO DAYS (LOW TO MID 70S) BEFORE NUDGING CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND (NEAR 80) AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK
(MID 80S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY IS
RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION. CERTAINLY
IS QUITE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT! THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE KY PENNYRILE THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A 1032MB
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH DRIER AIR
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE 60 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). THIS WILL SHUNT THE
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A GOOD SURGE OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS LIKELY INDUCES A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP,
BUT PLACEMENT OF THIS IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE GFS/CANADIAN
PIVOT IT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A NICE SURGE OF 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND
1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, THE NAM IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW MOVING UP ACROSS THE
KY PENNYRILE AND RESULTANT WARM SECTOR MORE TO OUR EAST OVER LMK'S
AREA. RIGHT NOW WE AREN'T OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT IF THE
GFS/CANADIAN END UP BEING CLOSE TO RIGHT THEN WE LIKELY WOULD END UP
IN AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK. MORNING ACTIVITY COULD MUCK THINGS UP
THOUGH, SO CERTAINLY A LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION.
IT APPEARS ANOTHER LULL DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY
(CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY IS THE CHOICE DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES). MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A 500MB
LOW ACROSS TEXAS ON SUNDAY THAT SLOWLY CHURNS NORTHWARD INTO THE
OZARKS/MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON A DAILY BASIS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP A STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) OF AT LEAST 3"
OF ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
(PARTICULARLY WEST KY) THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE (LOW TO MID 70S) THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WE START TO TREND WARMER OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS GET BACK AROUND 80. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MID 80S APPEAR LIKE A GOOD BET BY MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF EVEN
KPAH/KOWB. IFR AND LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE
OUT, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING IS ANTICIPATED AT LEAST
AT WESTERN TERMINALS. LIKELY REMAIN MVFR FOR SOUTHEAST HALF TO
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION THOUGH. CONDITIONS LIKELY DECLINE AGAIN
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN OF IFR CIGS. AFTER THE
-SHRA EXITS WE MAY STILL HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEAL WITH ACROSS WEST KY OVERNIGHT, BUT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THAT IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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