268  
FXUS63 KPAH 171710  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1210 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS BEGINS ALMOST  
DAILY AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND BUT PARTICULARLY FOR THE NEW WEEK  
COMING AS THE HEAT WILL ONLY BUILD AND GET HOTTER AND  
STICKIER AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.  
 
- DAILY STORM CHANCES PEAK THIS WEEKEND, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE  
STORMS AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG OUR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING  
AREA PERIPHERY WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON SWELL OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. PW'S HOVERING  
AROUND 2" MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY DONWPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
A PRIMARY HAZARD, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT,  
PARTICULARLY IF A STORM STAYS OVER ONE AREA LONG ENOUGH OR  
REPEATS OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS IS TO SAY THAT IT IS PROBABLY  
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FULL-AREA FLOOD WATCH, BUT NONETHELESS,  
ISOLATED REPORTS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL  
SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE SOUNDINGS DO  
SUGGEST A STRONGER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL MAY ALLOW FOR A MARGINAL  
RISK OF A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUST, SHOULD ONE COLLAPSE  
JUST RIGHT.  
 
IT APPEARS POPS PEAK DAILY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PEAK  
HEATING, AND THEY'LL LIKEWISE PEAK THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE  
BOUNDARY IS IN PLAY AND THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSITIVE  
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION NOTED WITHIN THE STREAMLINES OF  
THE UPPER FLOW OVERTOP THE PAH FA. THIS OCCURS IN SYNCHRONICITY  
WITH THE WOBBLE DOWN OF THE BOUNDARY AS A COUPLE PIECES OF WHAT  
LOOK TO BE MORE ORGANIZED WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE  
WABASH AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. WE THINK MOST OF THAT ACTION  
OCCURS SATURDAY SO WON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT DAY BE THE  
BETTER DAY OF PLAY FOR STORMS VS SUNDAY, WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY  
BE IN SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY MODE WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS. ONCE  
THAT DOES HIT (BUILDING HEIGHTS), WHICH IS DEFINITELY BY EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, THEN IT JUST RAMPS UP IN EARNEST WITH DAILY HEAT  
INDICES SWELLING INTO HEADLINE CATEGORY MUCH OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
DIURNAL BASES MAY INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDER/CB AND IF A STORMS  
IMPACTS THE TERMINAL THEN ALL RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLAY. THIS  
WILL BE BRIEF/SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, PROBABLY MAINLY CONFINED TO  
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE  
SCT-BKN MAINLY VFR BASES WITH NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS FOR STORMS  
AND/OR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUD THAT MAY DEVELOP IN  
THE STICKY PREDAWN ENVIRON.  
 
 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ081>094.  
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-  
100-107>112-114.  
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ085>088.  
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.  
 
 
 
 
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