415
FXUS63 KPAH 201050
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE THE PICK DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE QUAD
STATE SUNDAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY; LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE QUAD STATE DRY FOR ONE MORE
DAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER-MAKER FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND CRANK UP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY IN THE
LATITUDE OF THE MCS'S TRACK, BUT THE OVERALL SIGNAL HAS IT NORTH
OF I-64.
THE MCS SHOULD LAY DOWN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO ITS SOUTH, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA SHOULD BRING A DECENT CAPPING
INVERSION OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW AT LEAST MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE QUAD STATE. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE MCS
LEADING TO AT LEAST MODERATE SHEAR. ALL OF THIS INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE
ENHANCED NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
PUSH TO THE CONVECTION, LIMITING THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE QUAD STATE. HOWEVER, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2" ANY HEALTHY STORM COULD
PRODUCE EXTREME RAIN RATES WHICH COULD BRIEFLY OVERWHELM
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO OUR
IMMEDIATE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD A LOT MORE RAIN
LATELY. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECENS HAVE LESS THAN A 50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING ONE INCH, SO WE WILL ABSTAIN FROM THE FLOOD WATCH
PARTY FOR NOW. IF THE MCS TRACK TRENDS FARTHER SOUTH, THIS
APPRAISAL COULD CHANGE. THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE AREA DRY TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, TOO.
HOWEVER, DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS INTO THE QUAD STATE AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS ANOTHER HEALTHY DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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