129
FXUS63 KPAH 231158
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
658 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE FRONT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY, REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL POTENTIALLY
REACH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH HEATING THIS MORNING, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
FRONT. BY MIDDAY WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, THEN THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH. HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES, TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT TO LESS THAN 14 PERCENT POPS
SOUTH. MODELS SHOW CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 600 J/KG
TONIGHT, SO THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON SUNDAY, MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION. DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY. BY THE AFTERNOON, CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE PAH FA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 00Z MONDAY, THEN BISECTING OUR
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY, WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WITH THESE
POPS SHIFTING TO OUR EASTERN HALF OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
MONDAY. CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
SPC DAY 2 HAS CONTINUED WITH OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN
AN ENHANCED RISK, OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT, AND OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES IN MARGINAL. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEST OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THESE WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN OUR
PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL, BUT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION
AND SOUTH WINDS BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, THEN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL READINGS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS ON TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
TELECONNECTED MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, AS IT IS REPLACED BY AN INCOMING TROF OF NEGATIVELY TILTED
LOW PRESSURE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN AND EVOLVES, IT WILL SPIKE MID
WEEK POPS, AND WHILE THERE IS VARIANCE AMONGST THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SUITES, THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING HAS 3 OF THE 4 CLUSTERS SUPPORTING A
STRONG LOW DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OVERTOP THE PAH FA. WE'LL ACCEPT THE
NBM'S PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND A RAINY PERIOD THAT WILL LAST THRU
THURSDAY.
POPS SHOULD WANE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. VARIANCE OF THE MODELS ON THIS DRIFT
ONLY GROWS, SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO DAY 7. WE'LL STAY
WITH THE NBM STRATEGY AND DRAW POPS, AND TEMPS, DOWNWARD IN THE
ASSUMED POST SYSTEM PASSAGE AIRMASS. THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL IS FOR
TEMPS THAT RUN 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE NORM, WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO 50S FOR FRIDAY HIGHS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
KMVN EXPECTED TO GO FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS AROUND MIDDAY, OTHERWISE
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE AT TIME THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, AND INCLUDED VCSH AT CURRENT BEST ESTIMATES OF TIMING.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CALM
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 KTS.
INCLUDED LLWS LATE TONIGHT AT KCGI, KPAH AND KOWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RST
AVIATION...RST
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