327
FXUS63 KPAH 261837
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF
AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS ARRIVING UP NORTH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
25-35 MPH. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY EXCEED
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40 MPH LOCALLY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE OF A RETURNING RAIN SHOWER ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PROVIDED THE QUAD STATE WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER SETUP. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN EJECTING LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY EVENING. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH ROBUST MIXING WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40 MPH LOCALLY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MOST OF THE 12Z CAMS SHOW A CAP REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, INHIBITING CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. THE 12Z HRRR IS AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS A DECAYING
ELEVATED MCS AROUND 12Z PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-64
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT, THE
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A 20-40% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT IT IS VERY CONTINGENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
SHOULD THE HRRR BE CORRECT, LARGE HAIL WOULD INITIALLY BE THE
MAIN CONCERN BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL HAZARDS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT
FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE. FOR NOW, WOULD LEAN TOWARDS MOST OF
THE DAY REMAINING DRY.
THE MOST CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE
MONDAY EVENING WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE THAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST BETWEEN
7 TO 10 PM. CONVECTION QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, ENDING
ACROSS THE EAST BETWEEN 12 TO 3 AM. THE THERMODYNAMICS AND
KINEMATICS ON THE ONSET REMAIN VERY CONCERNING, WITH 2000 TO
3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE COMBINED WITH 200 TO 300 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH
AND STP OF 2.0 TO 4.0, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EF2+
TORNADOES. STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL YIELD
A LARGE HAIL RISK UP TO 2.00 INCHES WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS
EARLY WHILE 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE WILL FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND RISK
WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TORNADOES STILL REMAINING PROBABLE WHEN
THE TRANSITION TO THE LINE OCCURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE END TIME FOR THE MAIN LINE, BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE ONSET IF THE AFORMENTIONED MORNING
CONVECTION ENDS UP BEING MORE ROBUST DOWNSTREAM. THE ONLY
VARIABLE LACKING IS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT, FAVORING THE
HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES REMAINING MORE NORTH.
WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS MONDAY EVENING, THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
FA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WIND SHEAR WILL NOT
BE AS ROBUST, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS OF
CONCERN. TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS IS PROGGED BETWEEN
1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A 20-30% CHANCE OF A RETURNING RAIN
SHOWER ON FRIDAY; OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
FEW CU AROUND 5-6 KFT AGL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE DECAYING
MORNING CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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