304
FXUS63 KPAH 170526
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1226 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PREDAWN THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAIN/LIGHTNING AND
ISOLATED SEVERE (MARGINAL RISK) THREAT THAT ENDS WITH FROPA.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY THANKS TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE; IT EFFECTIVELY ENDS
OUR PROLONGED DURATION EXTREME HEAT HEADLINES.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT'S APPROACH AND PASSAGE BRINGS OUR NEXT
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES, INCLUDING STRONG STORM CHANCES,
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
WORKS IN WITH MORE EARNEST AFTER THE SECOND FRONT'S MID WEEK
PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LINGER ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. IR TOPS TO -75C ARE IMPRESSIVE AND
WE'VE SEEN SOME GUSTINESS OUT OF RECENT STORMS JUST UPSTREAM.
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY FLARE-UPS BUT OVERALL THE
TRENDING TOWARD DAYBREAK IS THE OTHER DIRECTION WRT SVR, AND
POPS SHOULD BE WANING BY 12Z IF NOT COMPLETELY DEPARTED; HOWEVER
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
HAZARD WHERE TRAINING OCCURS AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ALL OF THIS AMIDST FROPA AND WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM
THE EXTREME HEAT, AS TEMPS RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER HALF 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES. DEW POINTS DRAW DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH BUT MAY
HANG AND HOVER IN THE MID 70S IN OUR SOUTH UNTIL TOWARD THE
CLOSE OF THE DAY. EVEN SO, WITH THE LOWER TEMPS, THE HEAT INDEX
ACROSS OUR SOUTH STAYS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERTOP THE PAH FA TUESDAY AND
REALLY DRAWS THE LOWER DEW POINTS DOWN ON IN AND ACROSS THE
AREA; SEEING SOME MID 60S ISODROSOTHERMS (GASP?!) MAY NOT BE
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
MIX-OUT UNDER NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, WE'LL START TO SEE SOME
RETURN WARMTH/MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE MID WEEK AS UPPER AIR
ENERGY BUCKLES THE PATTERN AND EVOLVES A WAVE THAT TRACKS/MAKES
ITS OHIO VALLEY PASSAGE BY WEEK'S END. THE PRECEDING TIME
GETTING THERE OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM, NAMELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT IT APPEARS TO
BE TOO LOW FOR ANY TYPE OF CATEGORICAL MENTION AT THIS WRITING;
SOMETHING TO MONITOR/BE COGNIZANT TOWARD. AFTER THIS 2ND SYSTEM'S
ULTIMATE PASSAGE, WE SEE A NICE AND PLEASANT, REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WITH A SIMILAR/REPEAT DEW POINT PLUNGE INTO
THE 60S THAT FINISHES OUT OUR WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
STORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM KMVN-
KEVV/KOWB DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS, WHILE KCGI-KPAH WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE ISOLATED VICINITY (OR VOID) MENTION. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND VSBYS/CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS, AND MVFR CIGS MAY FILTER INTO THE NORTH WHILE
CALMING WINDS COULD ENABLE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. NW
WINDS BEHIND FROPA DURING THE DAY HELP FACILITATE A SLOW
LIFT/THIN OF CLOUD BASES AS NOTABLY COOLER/DRIER AIR DRAWS IN
BEHIND THE FROPA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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