431
FXUS63 KPAH 090615
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
- LOW CHANCES (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY FROM LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCES (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA (FA)
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, WITH MODELS INDICATING THE
ACTIVITY LESSENING OVERALL AS IT MOVES EAST, WITH THE ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 13 IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH SEASONABLE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
MODELS BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUNDAY. ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE WITH THE UPPER WAVE. WITH BETTER MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-40%) WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
KENTUCKY FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A
BROAD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 DEGREES SOUTHEAST, THEN BY
MONDAY, READINGS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOISTURE WILL REALLY BE LACKING. THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES 30-40%
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, NORTHWEST KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE REGION,
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MEAGER, SHOWING A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
INDICATIONS OF ANY WORTHWHILE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS HELPS PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING ALONG A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
FRONT ALONG AND WEST OF ROUGHLY MT. VERNON, IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT MVN BUT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...JGG
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