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FXUS63 KPAH 112342
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 20-40% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 20-25% WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A SMALL DAILY CHANCE (15-30%) OF POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN A DRY NW SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER H5 TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND MOVE SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
RIGHT NOW, GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST THE 20-40% RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(MAINLY SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHWEST IN, AND NORTHWEST KY). QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK SLIM TO NONE, WITH MOST AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN ONLY
RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY NEAR NORMAL VALUES, MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. LATEST NBM DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS RH VALUES FALLING TO 20-25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH STEADY N WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE THE PERSIST H5 RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON FRIDAY. BY THIS
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST
SPOTS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WILL
GIVE THE AIR A TOUCH OF NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA, AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC
FLOW PATTERN. RIGHT NOW, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE WARMER AND MORE
HUMIDITY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES (15-30%) OF POP-UP
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS, AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 6-10KTS OUT OF THE
SW TOMORROW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL
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