237
FXUS63 KPAH 051107
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
AFTER CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENCY OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
COLLABORATING WITH WFOS SGF, ILX, AND LSX WE HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. THE WARNING IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY LINE. USING CONSSHORT
DEWPOINTS AND NBM TEMPERATURES YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 110+ THIS
AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST 105 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH INCLUDING
YESTERDAYS READINGS WILL RESULT IN THE 4 DAY CRITERIA BEING MET.
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW, BUT BY
THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE BARELY HANGING ON IN THE EAST, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION, EITHER VIA AN MCS OR
DIURNAL FORCING. GIVEN THAT INCREASED CHANCE CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 105 WAS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE THE EASTERN
HALF THE AREA TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR CONVECTION, THE 00Z NAMNEST WAS QUITE ALARMING IN BRINGING
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED WEAK UPSHEAR CONVECTION BEHIND IT. FORTUNATELY, THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IT. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS, BUT LITTLE ELSE THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL DOUBT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE ABSENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING. WE
STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST,
BUT ALSO OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IF A STORM DEVELOPS, WITH LITTLE TO
NO SHEAR, IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM STAYING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LITTLE EXPECTATION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS STATED EARLIER, THURSDAY COULD SEE A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT THAT IS NOT SAYING MUCH. IF A STORM DEVELOPS EITHER DAY,
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OTHER THAN LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.
NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURE AND SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105+.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE QUAD STATE. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT DRY SOILS MAKE ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL LIMITED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, APPROACHING
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE NBM HIGHS HAVE LOWERED FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN
THE COOLER AIRMASS. WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BUT WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED END TO THE
HEAT WAVE. SUNDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE QUAD STATE
WHILE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
THE TAFS ARE VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT ANY
TERMINAL.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075-080-
081-084-085-088-089-092>094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ076>078-082-083-086-
087-090-091.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>006.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007>022.
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...DRS
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