472
FXUS63 KPAH 091819
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
119 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THROUGH 8PM, THOUGH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END HEAT ISSUES EARLIER IN AFFECTED AREAS.
- 20-50% CHANCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY, WITH CHANCES PEAKING AT 60-90% LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR
REGION TODAY, MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, FAR WEST
KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF RETURN OF NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE ADVECTED IN WARMER AND
MOISTER AIR, PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 102 TO 108 TODAY.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INCREASING AND AREAS WHICH
RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SEE AN
EARLIER END TO HEAT ISSUES TODAY. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD WITH
SMALLER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
PEAKS LATE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN THE NORTH,
WITH THE COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTING BACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
QUAD STATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
DECENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TODAY, THOUGH SHEAR IS LIMITED.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
1000-1200J/KG DCAPE MAKING DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD. A MARGINAL RISK COVERS NEARLY ALL OF THE QUAD
STATE TODAY. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERS SEMO AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WKY AND SIL FOR TOMORROW'S ACTIVITY, BUT MODEL
SUPPORT IS LESS CONSISTENT FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. SHOULD STRONGER
STORMS MATERIALIZE TOMORROW, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
QPF TOTALS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE FORECAST, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT DRY WEATHER, IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP BEYOND NUISANCE
PONDING ON ROADS. A MARGINAL RISK ERO COVERS THE QUAD STATE
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
WITH THE FRONT POSITIONED NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER FRIDAY, RAIN
CHANCES ARE INCREASING AND HIGHEST IN WESTERN KENTUCKY (50-70%).
TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-80S. DON'T GET TOO USED TO IT THOUGH AS THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH SATURDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEES A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SATURDAY PRECIP CHANCES ARE
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE SEEING CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING SHOWERS FROM A WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE DRY, IN THE
MIDDLE OF SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER
MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD CAUSE THAT FRONT TO
DRIFT TOWARDS THE QUAD STATE, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD. CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
PEAK IN THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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