222
FXUS63 KPAH 191835
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
QUAD STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SWATHS OF 1 TO 2" ARE ANTICIPATED,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
3". ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WATCH LOCATION MAY BE NEEDED WITH TIME.
- AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FRIDAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (80-95% CHANCE) OF MOST OF THE REGION OBSERVING AT
LEAST 2" OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, WITH EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL AT AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4" (20-40% CHANCE).
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY (LOW TO MID 70S). WHILE SOME MODERATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S), WE WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
IL/MO AND INTO EASTERN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS LED TO AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE
MORNING COMPLEX ACROSS MISSOURI FIZZLED OUT AND HAS LEFT BEHIND
QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY POPPED UP FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO WESTERN
KY. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AIDED BY UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ISN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH, STRUGGLING TO REACH EVEN 25-30 KTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY 6C OR BELOW AS
WELL. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP COMBINED WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT LIKELY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO
BE THE GREATEST CONCERN, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH A FEW OF
THE STRONGER CORES. MAJORITY OF OUR REGION (EXCEPT SOUTHERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES) REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT MAKES PASSAGE
TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR TRAINING CONVECTION THAT MAY LEAD TO SWATHS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 2", AND LOCALIZED UPWARDS OF 3". PLACEMENT AMONGST THE
CAMS IS VARIED, WITH SOME SUGGESTING HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS MORE OF WEST KY. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES,
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED IT TO AREAS THAT RECEIVED 1-2",
LOCALIZED 3", OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THESE AREAS ARE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. FFG IS GENERALLY ONLY 1.5" PER
HOUR IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THOUGH AS ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE WATCH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH SOUTHWARD EXPANSION SEEMING TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AIR INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF OUR CWA. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IN OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME THOUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH THE FRONT BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH DAILY CHANCES CONTINUING. UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY HELPING TO USHER IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND, BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. LREF HAS AN 80-95% CHANCE
AT RECEIVING AT LEAST 2" THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, WITH A 25-40% CHANCE
AT 4". THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE AN EXPENSIVE AREA OF 5+ INCHES
OVER THE NEXT 9 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY ARE OVERDONE A BIT, AND
WHEN IN DROUGHT IT'S HARD TO GET OUT, BUT THE TRENDS CERTAINLY ARE
IN FAVOR OF SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. JUST
HOPEFULLY WE DON'T GET TOO MUCH TOO QUICK, WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN INCREASING FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AND CIGS.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF -SHRA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ASPECT. TIMING OF -TSRA
IS A BIT TRICKY, BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR FOR
MANY AREAS AND STAY THAT WAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO NORTHERLY
TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ083-085>094.
MO...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ014-018.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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