744
FXUS63 KPAH 161117
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
617 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRAMATICALLY COOLER TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST 27 TO 32 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY.
- SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A
FIRST FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S.
- SUNDAY KICKS OFF A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK TO
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AMID DRY AND
SETTLED WEATHER WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INT THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. ALONG THE FRONT A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
STARKLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS 30-35
MPH ARE OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE TAPERING
BACK TO 20 TO 25 MPH. TODAY WILL FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO BREAK 60 DURING THE
DAY UNDERNEATH FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS.
BEHIND THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THIS FRONT STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. FAIRLY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SET UP WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST
LOOKS LIKELY FOR A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE CWA, WITH A FREEZE VERY
MUCH POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. FOR
MESSAGING CLARITY WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY WITH THIS
SHIFT BUT ONE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PART, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DRY, AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWINGS, HIGHS IN THE MID 70S LOWS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST OF THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS COMMONPLACE. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
IS EXPANDING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A POCKET FOR VFR (STILL
AROUND 3500 FT) THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FALL
BACK BELOW 3000 FT AFTER SUNSET FOR A FEW HOURS. LATE TONIGHT
DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN, WINDS EASE A BIT AND VFR CONDITIONS
START TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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