407
FXUS63 KPAH 251805
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
105 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WARM WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES ACROSS THE QUAD STATE,
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE WEEKEND PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AHEAD OF
A POTENTIALLY MAJOR SEVERE STORM EVENT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
MOST OF THE ATTENTION FOCUSES ON MONDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A POSSIBLE HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATOP THE QUAD STATES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AS HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX MOVES EAST OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS MONDAY MORNING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME PRIMED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML MOVES OVERHEAD WITH A RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS MOVING POLEWARD CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH THESE VALUES DROPPING OFF WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. CAPE VALUES DECREASE AREA WIDE AFTER 00Z WITH THE ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS COINCIDES WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SRH OVER 300 M2/S2.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS THAT NEED TO BE IRONED OUT WITH
REGARDS TO CONVECTION EVOLUTION BUT THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE WILL BE PRIMED TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. THE TREND
OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE
SHORTWAVE AND PARENT LOW FURTHER NORTH WHICH PLACES THE BETTER
KINEMATIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE WHEN AND
WHERE DOES CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKE PLACE. THE EML MAY BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME AT LEAST INITIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT (MOST OF THIS IS FURTHER NORTHWEST),
AND BL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THE PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE HIGHLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND STRONG, LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES.
AT THIS RANGE, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT
STORM DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD THEN LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS TIMING TO BE IN THE 00Z-06Z
TIME FRAME BUT THIS COULD STILL VARY AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. ANY INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL CONTAIN LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. HOW LONG
THAT MODE PERSISTS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THE EVENTUAL LINE
THAT DEVELOPS WILL FAVOR A HIGHER DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND
CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT.
FINALLY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE AREA. LIKELY POPS (60-80%) ARE
ADVERTISED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS WEST
KENTUCKY. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL UPTICK IN INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT ALTHOUGH SHEAR, ESPECIALLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR, IS
MUCH LOWER. AS A RESULT, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY PM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
MID WEEK SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS ADVERTISED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE EAST LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A VFR FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. CU FIELD WITH INCREASING BASES TO
AROUND 3-4KFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page