520
FXUS63 KPAH 140917
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
317 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (50S)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (60S) THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A 40-80%/40-60%
CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH 70 DEGREES OR BETTER NEXT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK.
- A RAINY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROJECTED
TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.5" WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE QUAD STATE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE CENTER PASSES
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH LOW
PRESSURE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ONSHORING
DISTURBANCE FROM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS SURGING TO JOIN THAT
DEVELOPING LOW; HOWEVER, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TAKES OVER DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE
RESULTING REORGANIZED LOW SHIFTING TO A TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH SUNDAY.
MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE CAMS, HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED ON
SPLIT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WITH MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF
LIGHTER RAIN IN BETWEEN. THE NORTHERN STREAM ALIGNS WITH THE
WEST-EAST BAND OF VORTICITY WITH THE WEAKENING INITIAL LOW. AS
THE LOW REFORMS AND TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH, THIS BAND OF MOISTURE
DECREASES IN POTENCY AND RESULTS IN LOWER PRECIPITATION VALUES
FURTHER EAST. CENTRAL MISSOURI TO ST LOUIS WILL SEE SOME OF THE
HIGHER TOTALS WITH THIS BAND. ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, THIS
MAY LINE UP MORE FAVORABLY NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. FOR THE
QUAD STATE, I-64 WOULD THUS BE A BIT MORE PRONE TO HIGHER VALUES
FROM THIS FEATURE. THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE LATER IN THE DAY, IN A MORE SW TO NE
ORIENTATION FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD
STATE, AND TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH
THE LOW CENTERED NEAR TN/MS, AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO DECREASE
FURTHER NORTH BUT A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
FORM, POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE BUT MAY BE
CLOSER TO CLARKSVILLE OR NASHVILLE. WPC HAS A D1 MARGINAL RISK
ERO FOR NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE
WITH THE UNUSUAL SHAPE BEING DRIVEN BY THESE TWO SEPARATE
FEATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL TOTALS
IN BETWEEN. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND
0.75-1.5" WHICH IS A HEALTHY MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DRIER
HREF AND THE WETTER NBM (WHICH HAS A 70-90% CHANCE OF 1+ INCH,
15-50% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES). WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL
SPREAD OUT OVER 30-36 HOURS, FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE EARLY SUNDAY
FROM AROUND MURRAY TO ELKTON, KY IF THE STRONGER WRAP-AROUND
RAIN BAND SETS UP THERE RATHER THAN FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE
VERY DRY WINTER AND CURRENT D0-D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THE
RAINFALL SHOULD MOSTLY BE BENEFICIAL.
RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER STARTS OUT NEXT WEEK. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO SOUTHERLY AND BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH PRECIPITATION
STAYING TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE
LOW TAKING FORM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WHICH MAY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG A BROAD TROUGH BRINGS
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT MAY SET UP MORE FAVORABLY SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD
STATE, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PRIOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
POSITIONED AT THAT POINT. POPS ARE SMEARED ACROSS THE THURSDAY-
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER FOR THE START
OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH 70S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AIDED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TONIGHT WITH THE ONGOING SYSTEM, AND MIDWEEK WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-50S
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE 30S
FOLLOWING THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH A SYSTEM STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH AS OF LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. A BKN TO OVC HIGH DECK
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
DECK WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR IN SPOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONWARD.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND MAY IMPACT CGI AS EARLY AS
17Z ISH. UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS VISIBILITY MAY BE AFFECTED AT
TIMES. ALL THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY 00Z.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THEY COULD PICK UP TO
AROUND 6-8 KTS. WINDS WILL PICK UP EVEN MORE IN THE EVENING TO
AROUND 7-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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