710
FXUS63 KPAH 160337
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1037 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGH VALUES TODAY,
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
- A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (60-80% CHANCE)
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON (30-50%
CHANCE) INTO THE EARLY EVENING (20-30%), AND AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE (50-70%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND
DRY QUIET WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
BROAD SCALE RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY HAS LED TO ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INTO THE 80S WITH NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS OR WARM MINIMUMS) TODAY. BREEZY WINDS
HAVE GUSTED TO 20-35MPH OUT OF THE SSW TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE
COVERAGE AREA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE.
LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TRACKS TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE QUAD STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ONLY THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK TONIGHT. ONLY A FEW
MODELS LIKE THE FV3 SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SO POPS REMAIN BUT HAVE SHIFTED LOWER TO THE 30-50%
RANGE. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COVERS THE QUAD STATE
THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING
ON A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, BUT RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES HAVE LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT. RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT-
THURSDAY GENERALLY RANGES FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH (HIGHER
TOTALS MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST, LOWER TOTALS IN THE
NORTHEAST).
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY WITH RIDGING EXPANDING BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING RECORDS, AND A 90 DEGREE OB OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.
EASTERN RIDGING FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, WITH A
D4 SLIGHT RISK CLIPPING PART OF SW INDIANA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST (HIGHER TOTALS FAVORING THE NE AND
LOWER THE SW), BRINGING THE TWO EVENT TOTAL TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SOME BUT LIMITED DROUGHT
RELIEF.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SURGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. HIGHS LOWER TO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY, THEN
TREND WARMER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS TREND SIMILARLY,
FALLING TO NEAR 40 OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN WARMING TO THE 50S
BY MID-WEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSRA WILL BE
AT CGI AND PAH WITH PROB30 GROUPS ELSEWHERE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED
AFTER 12Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AT CGI/PAH
BETWEEN 15-18Z. A FEW GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON IN SEMO AND W KY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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