245
FXUS63 KPAH 022328
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND COLD AIR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (25-50%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.
- WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY (60-90%) CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
- DURING THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF THE REGION SEEING AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN AND A
20-40% CHANCE OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LOSS
OF FORCING. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER, SHELTERED AND LOW-LYING SPOTS COULD FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S AND SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
ISOLATED FROST POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGING
AND POSSIBLY WITH AN SPS EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES.
ON SUNDAY, THE REGION WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW SYNOPTICALLY,
BRINGING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA,
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A 25-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO TO THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION AND BECOMING STATIONARY. A COUPLE OF SURFACE
LOWS WILL PASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, MAINLY DIRECTLY OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE (60-90%) OF
MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THIS STANDS NOW, NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A A
60-80% CHANCE OF THE REGION SEEING AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN AND A
20-40% CHANCE OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO
KEEP THE AREA COOL AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED AND
NON-SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS
THE AREA DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BREEZY WINDS ARE COMING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENNYRILE BUT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 9-14
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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