273
FXUS63 KPAH 090700
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
200 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND 105
DEGREES AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME RELIEF ON
FRIDAY.
- WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE EVENING UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS
PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL KY, AND THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN IN THE
SUBSIDENT WAKE OF THAT FEATURE. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND,
ESPECIALLY WITH A SUBTLE UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL JETTING TOWARD DAWN,
AND A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS. WILL WATCH A BOWING SEGMENT WITH A
HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE THAT IS NOW ENTERING WESTERN MO. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE ARRIVING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR UPPER RIDGING TO START BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
CWA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS SLOWLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH IT. IN FACT,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP AROUND 90 DEGREES, WITH
OPPRESSIVE DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO
MID 100S ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FULTON COUNTY KY TO PERRY
COUNTY ILLINOIS. EAST OF THIS LINE, MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S. NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS PLACEMENT LOOKS
GOOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE. ANY SCATTERED
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY COULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE AFTERNOON
HEAT AND HUMIDITY, BUT COVERAGE ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
STILL THINK THE HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA, THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE TODAY AS HREF PROBS OF >
2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE RANGE FROM 50 TO 70 % ACROSS THE CWA. FEEL IT
IS SAFE TO SAY THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SOME MODEST 0-6 KM FLOW
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT ITS PEAK. PRETTY MARGINAL FOR ANY
PROLONGED ORGANIZED UPDRAFT, BUT PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS COULD MIX IN WITH OTHER PULSE STORM MODES. MAIN THREATS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE A LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN THE MOIST COLUMN AND FREEZING LEVELS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER 15K FEET, LARGE HAIL SEEMS LESS LIKELY. THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT,
PWATS AROUND 2" THROUGH THE COLUMN, AND THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME WATER LOADED WET MICROBURSTS. IN
ADDITION, THE WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO LOOKS GOOD
GIVEN THE FACTORS PROMOTING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MENTIONED
ABOVE. COVERAGE OF ANY FLOOD ISSUES SHOULD BE ISOLATED, BUT DECIDED
TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TODAY. IT NOW EXPIRES 7 PM CDT.
TONIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA, AND THE LACK OF A NOTABLE TRIGGER KEEPS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN CHECK. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY REMNANT MCV'S
COMING FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT COULD ACT AS A TRIGGER, BUT
RIGHT NOW CAMS KEEP THINGS PRETTY QUIET. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TO START WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER IT WILL START TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL, EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO
KEEP THINGS DRY, HOT, AND MUGGY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND
THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S SHOULD ONCE AGAIN YIELD
PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES. LOOKING FOR MAX VALUES IN THE LOW
100S FOR MOST AREAS EACH DAY, AND WILL BE PUSHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN EACH OF THESE DAYS. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS MORE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN. A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW.
THIS WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION WITH WHAT
APPEARS TO BE PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF
IT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA, AND GIVEN THE
TIMING OF ARRIVAL AROUND THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, DO EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING OF WHATEVER ORGANIZED STORMS ARE COMING FROM UPSTREAM.
STILL SOME MODEST TO MODERATE ML CAPE SHOULD STILL BE LINGERING, AND
IF THERE IS A GOOD COLD POOL PUSH FROM UPSTREAM SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
WIND IN THIS SCENARIO. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST, AND DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP OFF BACK INTO THE
60S BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GAINS
ENOUGH INFLUENCE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION, SPARKING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MVFR CEILNGS ARE CLEARING TO THE EAST AS CONVECTION DEPARTS. A
LIGHT WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP VISBY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SPORADIC PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE BROAD PROB30S FOR NOW BUT WILL TRY TO
NARROW IT DOWN AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIAPTED WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ080-084-088-092-093.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ002>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ001>004.
DISCUSSION...WFO LMK
AVIATION...WFO LMK
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