392
FXUS63 KPAH 101727
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF LOW-END RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT: 1) A
10-20% THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI-ARKANSAS BORDER AND 2)
A 20-40% CHANCE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM IN THE SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY PURCHASE AND PENNYRILE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AS WELL AS THE EVANSVILLE
TRI-STATE AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.
- AFTER BEING FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURE WILL TREND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SMALL (10-20%) POP-UP
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS PART
OF A BROADER H5 RIDGE-TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CONUS FROM WEST TO
EAST. A WEAK SURFACE INFLECTION WILL INITIATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE AR/MO AND KY/TN BORDERS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE TWO POTENTIAL PERIODS OF RAIN. THE FIRST WOULD BE THIS
EVENING NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER WHERE A SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) OF
RAIN IS FORECAST. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN
COVERAGE (20-40% CHANCE) OVER THE SOUTHERN KY PURCHASE AND
PENNYRILE AREAS. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT FOR THOSE THAT DO SEE IT, GENERALLY A TENCH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF BOTH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL BE LACKING GOOD FORCING AND
MOISTURE, SO STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
HAVE OF THE REGION (20-40% CHANCE HERE) BEFORE LOSING ALL
FORCING, WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY STAY DRY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE VERY LIGHT EVEN IF IT DOES OCCUR,
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, VERY DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS
20-25% AND NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON HOW DRY THE VEGETATION
BECOMES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BUT LESS
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE H5 RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE RIDGING BECOMING FLATTENED/ZONAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. NAEFS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WARMING TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND REGARDLESS. WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP UPWARD AS WELL, WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED (10-20%
CHANCE) AIR MASS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY, BUT NO WIDESPREAD DROUGHT- BUSTING RAINS ARE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N OR NNE AROUND
4-8 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
IMPACTFUL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS IN NE ARKANSAS AND NW TENNESSEE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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