237  
FXUS63 KPAH 051107  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
607 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
AFTER CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENCY OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND  
COLLABORATING WITH WFOS SGF, ILX, AND LSX WE HAVE DECIDED TO  
UPGRADE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO AN  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. THE WARNING IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST  
OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY LINE. USING CONSSHORT  
DEWPOINTS AND NBM TEMPERATURES YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 110+ THIS  
AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST 105 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH INCLUDING  
YESTERDAYS READINGS WILL RESULT IN THE 4 DAY CRITERIA BEING MET.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW, BUT BY  
THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE BARELY HANGING ON IN THE EAST, WHICH  
WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION, EITHER VIA AN MCS OR  
DIURNAL FORCING. GIVEN THAT INCREASED CHANCE CONFIDENCE IN  
REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 105 WAS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE THE EASTERN  
HALF THE AREA TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME.  
 
AS FOR CONVECTION, THE 00Z NAMNEST WAS QUITE ALARMING IN BRINGING  
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WITH  
SCATTERED WEAK UPSHEAR CONVECTION BEHIND IT. FORTUNATELY, THE  
LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IT. THE LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS  
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS, BUT LITTLE ELSE THIS  
AFTERNOON. STILL DOUBT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE  
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA IN  
THE ABSENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING. WE  
STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST,  
BUT ALSO OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IF A STORM DEVELOPS, WITH LITTLE TO  
NO SHEAR, IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED.  
 
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE  
SYSTEM STAYING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LITTLE EXPECTATION OF DIURNAL  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS STATED EARLIER, THURSDAY COULD SEE A  
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, BUT THAT IS NOT SAYING MUCH. IF A STORM DEVELOPS EITHER DAY,  
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OTHER THAN LIGHTNING AND  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.  
NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURE AND SPECIFIC  
HUMIDITY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH  
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX  
VALUES OF 105+.  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY SLOWLY  
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE QUAD STATE. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE  
LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE  
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.  
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT DRY SOILS MAKE ANY FLOODING  
POTENTIAL LIMITED.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, APPROACHING  
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE NBM HIGHS HAVE LOWERED FOR THE WEEKEND AND  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN  
THE COOLER AIRMASS. WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE  
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BUT WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED END TO THE  
HEAT WAVE. SUNDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE QUAD STATE  
WHILE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO  
THE AREA NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
THE TAFS ARE VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE  
WOULD BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT ANY  
TERMINAL.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075-080-  
081-084-085-088-089-092>094.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ076>078-082-083-086-  
087-090-091.  
 
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-  
087-100-107>112-114.  
 
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.  
 
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>006.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DRS  
SHORT TERM...DRS  
LONG TERM...ATL  
AVIATION...DRS  
 
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