129  
FXUS63 KPAH 231158  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
658 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO  
LIFT THE FRONT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY, REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL AREA  
OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL POTENTIALLY  
REACH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY AROUND DAYBREAK.  
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH HEATING THIS MORNING, WITH  
CHANCES INCREASING AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE  
FRONT. BY MIDDAY WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS, THEN THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH. HIGH  
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR OUR NORTHERN  
COUNTIES, TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT TO LESS THAN 14 PERCENT POPS  
SOUTH. MODELS SHOW CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 600 J/KG  
TONIGHT, SO THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
ON SUNDAY, MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION. DURING  
THE MORNING HOURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY. BY THE AFTERNOON, CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF  
THE PAH FA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT  
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 00Z MONDAY, THEN BISECTING OUR  
REGION BY 06Z MONDAY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY, WENT WITH  
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WITH THESE  
POPS SHIFTING TO OUR EASTERN HALF OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z  
MONDAY. CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.  
SPC DAY 2 HAS CONTINUED WITH OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN  
AN ENHANCED RISK, OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT, AND OUR  
EASTERN COUNTIES IN MARGINAL. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS  
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEST OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND  
THESE WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING  
HOURS, GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN OUR  
PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING  
HOURS.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL, BUT LOWS TONIGHT  
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION  
AND SOUTH WINDS BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL  
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE  
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY  
NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, THEN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL  
RETURN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL READINGS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY CLOSE TO  
SEASONAL NORMS ON TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  
TELECONNECTED MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THIS TIME  
FRAME, AS IT IS REPLACED BY AN INCOMING TROF OF NEGATIVELY TILTED  
LOW PRESSURE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN AND EVOLVES, IT WILL SPIKE MID  
WEEK POPS, AND WHILE THERE IS VARIANCE AMONGST THE DIFFERENT MODEL  
SUITES, THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING HAS 3 OF THE 4 CLUSTERS SUPPORTING A  
STRONG LOW DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OVERTOP THE PAH FA. WE'LL ACCEPT THE  
NBM'S PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND A RAINY PERIOD THAT WILL LAST THRU  
THURSDAY.  
 
POPS SHOULD WANE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. VARIANCE OF THE MODELS ON THIS DRIFT  
ONLY GROWS, SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO DAY 7. WE'LL STAY  
WITH THE NBM STRATEGY AND DRAW POPS, AND TEMPS, DOWNWARD IN THE  
ASSUMED POST SYSTEM PASSAGE AIRMASS. THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL IS FOR  
TEMPS THAT RUN 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE NORM, WHICH SHOULD  
TRANSLATE TO 50S FOR FRIDAY HIGHS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
KMVN EXPECTED TO GO FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS AROUND MIDDAY, OTHERWISE  
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY INTO  
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE AT TIME THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD, AND INCLUDED VCSH AT CURRENT BEST ESTIMATES OF TIMING.  
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CALM  
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 KTS.  
INCLUDED LLWS LATE TONIGHT AT KCGI, KPAH AND KOWB.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RST  
AVIATION...RST  
 
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