953
FXUS63 KPAH 100629
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW END CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- LOW CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA,
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- ON AND OFF LOW END CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT SOUTH OF OUR REGION TODAY, AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY. THIS
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVERALL A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
LATE TUESDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL
BLEND PRODUCES LOW END CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LACKING
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT BEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA,
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THE MODEL BLEND
PRODUCES ON AND OFF SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES NORTH, BUT
CONTINUED LACKING MOISTURE STILL PRODUCES VERY LITTLE QPF.
AFTER SEEING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH INTO THE
80S, WITH SATURDAY READINGS AROUND 90 DEGREES. WE WILL FINALLY
SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER DEW POINTS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, DEW POINTS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET AND THEN TURN NORTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KMVN. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS NEAR
THE TN/AR BORDERS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...SP
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