435
FXUS63 KPAH 190818
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
THE INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS REACH KEVV AND THE PENNYRILE,
AND IS JUST A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AT THIS POINT. BACK
TO THE WEST MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A 50-60KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY MORNING,
AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY NEAR/AFTER
DAYBREAK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
AND THAT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED.
CAM DATA SHOWS AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN OUR
EASTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY, AND THEN SHIFTS IT EAST OF THE AREA IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT EXITS THE AREA.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES
TO BE BULLISH ON STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
IT IS NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PESSIMISTIC ON DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD.
THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DEEP MIXED LAYER EXTENDING
ABOVE 850MB, BUT ONLY HAS AROUND 30KTS OF WIND IN THAT LAYER. WE
WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AS THE
15 MPH SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA SHOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT TO MEET,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS OVER 35 MPH IS NOT GREAT AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA QUIET FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PIVOT FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE "DUMB-BELLING" WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, AND THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS, AND THEREFORE HAVE
TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE CONVECTION.
THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER BRINGING THE CONVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND THEN
MOVE THE CONVECTION THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY
ON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH DAMAGING WINDS ONCE AGAIN THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WITH
RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
THE WESTERN TROUGH, EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH
MIDDAY. HOWEVER, THE REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE VERY DISORGANIZED THOUGH WITH A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING BY AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, VERY WARM, AND
RATHER HUMID AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/CMC, THE GFS FOCUSES MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. IT
DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE ECWMF/CMC ARE DRY AND INDICATE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE. THE BLENDED FORECAST WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ON SATURDAY MAINLY DUE TO THE WETTER GFS.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019
WE WILL HAVE RUN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AT TIMES WE MAY EVEN ENCOUNTER A CLAP OF
THUNDER. CIGS AND VSBY WILL GO MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING. WHERE WE LOSE THE GUSTS...MAINLY EVV AND OWB WE COULD
ENCOUNTER LLWS. VFR CONDITION START TO RETURN LATE MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...KH
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