975
FXUS63 KPAH 211049
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SLIPPERY STRETCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE
SEEING MAJOR IMPACTS FROM WINTRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
PROSPECTS OF 4+ INCHES OF SNOW NOW INCREASED TO THE 60-80%
RANGE! STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY WOULD SEE THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES (CLOSER TO 80%),
WHERE THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH THE
WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY (80-100%
CHANCE) TO RUN ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, PUTTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH WIND CHILL READINGS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER HEADLINE
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG WITH A RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL LARGELY BE A RESULT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE DAY AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL TO START THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S, SO ANY EARLY DAY IMPACTS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS OVER TO ALL RAIN.
THE BIG STORY FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE IS THE WINTER STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND!
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND STRETCHING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE AREA FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST(OVER LOUISIANA) THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS WE'VE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MENTIONING THERE IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WHICH HAS PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR TO COME ALONG WITH IT. THE DRY AIR
IS LEADING TO A MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST AS FAR AS THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND A SHARP CUT OFF IN SNOWFALL
AMOUNT. AS FAR AS WHAT IS FORCING THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND ACROSS THE
AREA, THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/STRETCHING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 850M AND 700MB. THE QUAD STATE HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT FORCING. TO AID IN THE FORCING, IS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET BEING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. A QUICK LOOK AT THE THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS
STRONG FORCING (AND EVEN SOME INSTABILITY) IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE, BUT IT IS FAIRLY HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE (650-500MB) WITH
QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN THE LAYER AS WELL. THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
FRACTURING OF THE BETTER SNOWFLAKE SIZES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ACCRETION ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE. IN OTHER WORDS, THE FLUFFIER
SNOW FLAKES MAY MAY STRUGGLE A BIT, RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. IT IS A COLD AIRMASS, SO THEY WILL LIKELY STILL BE
BETTER THAN OUR TYPICAL 10:1.
THE LATEST TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS NEARLY ALL MODELS ALIGNED
(DETERMINISTIC, AI AND ENSEMBLES) WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND TRENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE,
WHERE THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED. IN FACT, SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE STORM TOTALS MAY
EXCEED 5 INCHES. THE LATEST PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING THE
PROBABILITIES OF 4+ INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE 60-80% RANGE AND
PROBABILITIES OF 6+ INCHES IN THE 60-70% RANGE. WE COULD KEEP GOING
EVEN INTO THE HIGHER RANGES, BUT THAT IS A GOOD START AND IT GIVES A
GOOD IDEA OF THE TRENDS AND THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN THE QUAD STATE. TYPICALLY
WE WOULD HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS, BUT THE SCALE OF THE
IMPACTS SEEMED TO BE WORTH GOING AHEAD AND INCREASING MESSAGING AND
AWARENESS FOR THIS EVENT.
AGAIN, IT IS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE AND I LEANED TOWARD BEING CAUTIOUS ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF DRY AIR
LIMITING SNOW TOTALS/IMPACTS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS UPDATE. THOSE
AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE SNOW, BUT THE CONFIDENCE ISN'T THERE YET TO
EXPAND THE WATCH INTO THOSE LOCATIONS. TIMING IS ALSO A CHALLENGE,
ESPECIALLY THE START TIME AS RESULT OF ANY LINGERING DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME. IN FACT, THE START TIME OF THE WATCH WAS COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT EARLY FOR OUR
AREA. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, A BRIEF BREAK EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT WILL ALL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AHEAD OF ANY POTENTIAL
UPGRADE.
THERE'S BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (70-100% CHANCE) THAT THE QUAD STATE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THAT WOULD PUT HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. OF COURSE ANY
SNOW ON THE GROUND COULD CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL FURTHER.
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL LIKELY APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY EVEN EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA!! JUST ANOTHER BIG
IMPACT WORTH DISCUSSING OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING BEFORE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT CGI/OWB. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT; HOWEVER, SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THIS ISSUANCE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ088>094.
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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