782
FXUS63 KPAH 301959
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
159 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM 25 TO 35 DEGREES.
- THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WILL BE A
10-30% CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 10% OR LESS CHANCE OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, SO IT WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN,
IF ANYTHING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S, BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, AND THAT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE, THE NBM MAY BE OVERDONE WITH LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK,
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
FINALLY LEAD TO A NICE WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE LONE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND
NOW MAY COMPLETELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD STATE. THE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 10-30% CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE
RIGHT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION WILL STAY DRY. THE CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE
IS 10% OR LESS, SO THIS WILL BE LIGHT RAIN, IF ANYTHING.
THERE ARE AT LEAST A FEW MODELS SHOWING SOME WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION OVER THE QUAD STATE NEXT TUESDAY, BUT THE
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND THE NBM KEEP THE AREA DRY
FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE TAFS ARE VFR. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WITH MIXING IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED AND THAT COULD LEAD
TO A LLWS CONCERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE 03Z-09Z TIME
FRAME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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