731
FXUS63 KPAH 221744
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1244 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON.
- VARIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES AND
HEAVIEST RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-2", WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
- SUMMER WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE QUAD
STATE SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE BOOTHEEL REGION TO THE PENNYRILE
WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS OVER WESTERN
TENNESSEE SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL SKIRT OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
A DIRTY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE QUAD
STATE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
INITIAL SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN MOISTURE AND SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH RAINFALL.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL
AND VERY ACTIVE. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL SUPPORT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME
HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD NORTHEAST OVER THE
QUAD STATE AND PUSH THE ACTIVE FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT RANGES FROM NEARLY
0.5" IN THE FT CAMPBELL AREA TO AROUND 2.5" OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS CERTAINLY COULD
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG AN EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY THAT COULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THERE
IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE, AS
INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S SATURDAY, LOWER
90S SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY THE MID 90S MONDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH THE 100-105 RANGE SUNDAY AND WILL TEST HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS (105) OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES
BUT KEVV AND KMVN WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE, LEAVING ALL SITES VFR
BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...WFO SGF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page