965
FXUS63 KPAH 130321
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BLAST OF MID SEPTEMBER HEAT IS FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
MID 90S HIGH TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE TOWARD/INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON.
- THE HEAT SHOULD BREAK BY WEEK'S END, WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL 15 TO 25% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A FRONT WILL BE KINDA/SORTA NEAR US TO OUR NORTH, BUT OFFER
LITTLE REAL IMPACT HERE AS HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS AND
REINFORCES ITS GRIP UPON US WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. H5
HEIGHTS HERE AROUND 588 DM NOW WILL SEE A 595 DM ANTICYCLONE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, THEN TRANSLATE OVERHEAD UPON ITS MIGRATION TO THE TN
VALLEY BY MID WEEK. UNTIL THEN, THE TRAILING END OF A
SAGGING/NEARBY FRONT (TO THE NORTH/WEST) MAY OFFER JUST ENOUGH
CONVERGENT FORCING TO YIELD A 10-20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM, MAINLY ON OUR CWA PERIPHERY, BEFORE IT IS EFFECTIVELY
PINCHED OFF BY THE BUILDING HIGH(S).
AFTER THAT, IT'S ALL HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACTS, WHICH IS
MOVING US AGAIN TOWARD HEADLINE HEAT DURING THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME.
A NOSE OF 25C H8 TEMPS RIDGES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
TRANSLATION OF THE HIGH, WITH RESULTANT MAX TEMPS PUSHING THE
MID 90S AGAIN. RETURN FLOW DEW POINTS AROUND 70F/INTO THE LOWER
70S WILL MAKE FOR HI'S PUSHING 100F/INTO THE LOWER 100S EACH
DAY.
SOME RELIEF MAY BE NOTED TOWARD THE WEEK'S END, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN TURN PINCHED OFF BY APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS WELL AS THE SOUTH AND EAST,
SO ITS SLOW/STEADY RETREAT EFFECTIVELY FALLS HEIGHTS HERE AND
ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL PCPN CHANCES TO MAKE A
GRADUAL RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST GUIDANCE ISN'T AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH IT, SO BACKED OFF SOME COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. KCGI/KMVN MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED. WINDS
WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND THEN GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOMORROW, MAINLY IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, BUT CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...SP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page