271  
FXUS63 KPAH 211123  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS AND AS WINDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER MOST OF THE  
REGION, IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT FREEZE IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS  
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. A HARD  
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERN PORTIONS  
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ARE LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING, UNLESS  
WINDS DROP OUT SOON. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN INTACT WITH  
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SLIP TO  
OUR SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF  
THE AREA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH  
WIND, BUT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO  
BE CALM TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY RECOVERING TO AROUND 30  
DEGREES, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT, AND  
EVEN A LIGHT FREEZE.  
 
TRIED TO GO ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, BUT EVEN THAT  
KEEPS READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. WE DO HAVE WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE  
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES  
ON THIS SHIFT. IF ENOUGH OF THE AREA HAS A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE  
THIS MORNING, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CALL AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON  
AND END FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT SPRING.  
 
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE WARM UP  
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING  
WARMER, SO WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH  
GIVES MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CLIMBING  
MONDAY AND SHOULD HOLD AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD  
KEEP THE FROST AWAY.  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH, BUT THEY WILL BE  
RATHER LIGHT AND THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON  
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW TO  
MID 60S. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH  
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTH, THERE WILL BE SOME  
FROST POTENTIAL, IF ANYONE STILL CARES BY THEN.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER  
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND STRETCH  
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COASTS STATES. ALOFT, A NICE UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST  
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN, BUT PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH  
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
 
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST  
AND WE WILL END UP IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY  
TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES  
RATHER DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.  
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN, THE OVERALL OUTCOME IS THAT  
WE SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SOME MORE CLOUDINESS WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE  
50S. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK  
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH, WHICH MEANS THERE COULD BE A  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT WE ARE  
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS  
ARRIVES.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION AS  
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT  
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PLAY OUT THOUGH, ESPECIALLY TIMING  
AND PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF. HOWEVER, KEEPING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS  
IN THE FORECAST IS DEFINITELY WARRANTED FOR NOW GIVEN THE LATEST  
MODEL TRENDS AND A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE DATA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
THE TAFS ARE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN  
PLACE TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-  
080>094.  
 
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-  
100-107>112-114.  
 
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ081-082-  
085>088.  
 
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DRS  
SHORT TERM...DRS  
LONG TERM...CW  
AVIATION...DRS  
 
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