378
FXUS63 KPAH 150455
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED (80+% CHANCE) SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
MAIN THREAT.
- WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS. WIND
GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
- RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS ROUGHLY A
20-50% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, MAINLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED AREAS.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS EARLY
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
NORTHEAST US THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VEERING WINDS TOWARD THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND EXPECTED TO TOP OUT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH IA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-45
MPH BEING FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 60-70 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT 15Z SUNDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE AND REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50'S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS MAY APPROACH 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH VALUES
NEAR 7 C/KM LEADING TO A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE.
SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK EXCELLENT WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE, AND 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASING
TOWARDS 40+ KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT IN MISSOURI BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS HIGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WHILE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE STILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THIS AS THE EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR BUT LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD STILL WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT. WIND DAMAGE IS
THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY HAS NOT
DECREASED WITH TODAYS DATA. SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE LINE OR SEMI-BROKEN LINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BUT WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LIGHT AMOUNTS IN GRASSY SURFACES. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30-40MPH CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30'S, WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BREEZY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS SET TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BY MIDWEEK AS WINDS RETURN
TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S BY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LLWS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
10KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP EARLY MORNING TO LATE MORNING
WITH MIDDAY GUSTS OF 25-35KTS. A VERY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOVES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING, BRINGING STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
STORM LINE. SOME SHOWERS AND MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE PREDOMINANT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT. VSBY DROPS TO IFR ARE LIKELY
WITH THE FRONT. TRAILING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN
FORECAST MODELS, THOUGH STRONG WNW WINDS BRINGING IN COLD AIR
COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW (MINIMAL ACCUMULATION) MIXING IN
BRIEFLY IN THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT /8
AM EDT/ MONDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ATL
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