405
FXUS63 KPAH 061632
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1132 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (RANGING FROM 30-60%)
ARE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK; HOWEVER, SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN
LESS THAN 5% THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES (5- 15%) MAY CREEP INTO THE QUAD STATE AREA
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO OR BELOW 1/4 MILE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WARMER
TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
LARGELY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING EACH DAY. THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED; HOWEVER, PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS (TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS) DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIGHT (LESS THAN 20KTS) TO HAVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND, LEADING TO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDER ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.
THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN A BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND WINDS TO INCREASED A BIT. IN FACT, SHEAR
INCREASES CLOSER TO 20-30KTS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GIVE THE QUAD STATE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THOSE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FLATTER FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AGAIN, INTO THE LOW
90S. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY,
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD ONCE
AGAIN, ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-60% CHANCE). FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE ONCE AGAIN (20KTS OR LESS), SO ISOLATED SEVERE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS WEST KY EARLY THIS MORNING IS STAYING
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. ALSO HAVE SOME EARLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE MAIN WINDOW FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR
DECK PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY HAVE MORE
FOG TO CONTEND WITH FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...SP
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