963
FXUS63 KPAH 012258
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
458 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. NORTH OF I-64 COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY FREEZING RAIN) NEAR SUNRISE, BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WARM ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS.
- AFTER A VERY DRY TO RECORD DRY WINTER, A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT
IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK TO MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST WITH A DECENT SIGNAL
FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH A 30-75% (SE TO NW) CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 2" IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 70+
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE REGION TODAY,
WHILE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED. MOST SITES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S,
WARMING TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WITH SOME
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN KENTUCKY PENNYRILE. A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE,
PROGRESSING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THE REST OF THE NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES DROP LOW ENOUGH TO APPROACH
FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR NEAR SUNRISE WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MIXING OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY WINTRY PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD SUFFICIENT COOLING OCCUR, BUT WARM ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND LIMITED POTENTIAL AND DURATION OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING SHOULD KEEP WINTRY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. QPF HAS TICKED UPWARDS FOR THE
TONIGHT-MONDAY SYSTEM WITH A 40-80% CHANCE OF 0.5" OF RAIN AND
15-60% CHANCE OF 1" OF RAIN, WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCES ALONG A
LINE FROM AROUND PERRYVILLE, MO EASTWARD TO THE IL/IN/KY
TRIPLE-POINT.
THE W-E ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD TUESDAY
BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE QUAD STATE AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST WHILE A
TROUGH DEEPENS OUT WEST. A STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN. DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ARE INCLUDED THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE KEY
FEATURE WILL BE AN ELONGATED (SW TO NE ORIENTED) AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED FURTHER WEST WITH RAIN MAINLY FUNNELING
FROM AROUND TULSA/FAYETTEVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TO ST LOUIS INTO
ILLINOIS. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE SHOULD HAVE A
BIT OF A BREAK DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND THUNDER GETS INTRODUCED
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEEK, TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL AND BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE A FACTOR FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY HAS DECENT MODEL SUPPORT.
QPF THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD HAS LOWERED SOME AND SHIFTED
WESTWARD WITH 2-4" (LOWER IN SE, HIGHER IN NW). FLOODING
POTENTIAL WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THESE TOTALS, FOLLOWING A
VERY DRY TO RECORD DRY WINTER, THOUGH ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS
FOR THE REST OF THE FIRST THIRD OF MARCH. SPREADING OUT THIS
RAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS WILL HELP IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S (A COLD FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE TEMPORARY COOLING). FRIDAY IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EVENING TERMINAL FORECAST FROM THE
INHERITED AFTERNOON PACKAGE, AS TIMING FOR INCOMING LOWERING
BASES/CIGS AND DEVELOPING PCPN STILL LOOKS IN SYNC. TEMP/DEW
SPREADS, TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS, AND MODELED SOUNDINGS HINT
THAT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS MAY GO A LITTLE LOWER AND/OR STICK
AROUND LONGER INTO OR EVEN THRU THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE
FORECAST TMRW AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS ANY BRIEF MIXING OF/TO
WINTRY PRECIP (MOST LIKELY FREEZING RAIN, IF ANYTHING), IT IS
MOST POSSIBLE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COVERAGE AREA AT
OUR COLDEST TIME NEAR SUNRISE, BUT OVERALL WARM RUNNING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND INSTANTANEOUS LOWS ONLY DROPPING TO 32-35F IN
THE NORTH WILL HELP LIMIT ANY WINTRY ACCUMULATION/IMPACT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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