147
FXUS63 KPAH 302216
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
516 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL; TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST IN THE NORTH TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH/EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A WEAK FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IT MAY SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO BUT THE OVERALL COLUMN APPEARS PRETTY DRY, FRONTAL
FORCING IS LIMITED AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. WE
STAY MOSTLY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE LOWER-HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT KICKS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN POSSIBLY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS. FOR
THE MOST PART THOUGH, DRY, COOLER THAN NORMAL, AND BENIGN
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THEN EMERGES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A ZONAL JET MAX PRECEDES A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SENDS AS
FAIRLY SYNOPTICALLY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA (ALTHOUGH
THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS LIMITED). A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. MOISTURE RETURN STILL APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THE SYSTEM IS HOVERING AROUND 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SOME MID LEVEL BASES WILL WORK DOWN THE COLUMN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST
IMPACTED WILL BE THE NORTH (KMVN), WHERE LOW VFR BASES WILL HAVE
ABOUT A 3 HOUR OVERNIGHT WINDOW FOR -SHRA POTENTIAL. UPON LATE
NIGHT FROPA, ALL TERMINALS EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH,
AND SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY OCCUR UPON ITS IMMEDIATE PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE, TRANQUIL FLIGHT CONDITIONS CARRY FORWARD THENCE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INCREASING ITS HOLD UPON OVERTOP
MIGRATION, EFFECTIVELY CEASING GUST POTENTIAL INTO/THRU THE
PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST; MOSTLY FEW-SCT DIURNAL
BASES AVERAGING AROUND 5K FT AGL MAY DEVELOP THEN TOO, WITH KMVN
SHOWING SOME TEMPORARY CIG POTENTIAL.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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