435  
FXUS63 KPAH 190818  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
THE INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS REACH KEVV AND THE PENNYRILE,  
AND IS JUST A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AT THIS POINT. BACK  
TO THE WEST MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED  
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A 50-60KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LARGELY  
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY  
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY MORNING,  
AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY NEAR/AFTER  
DAYBREAK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,  
AND THAT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED.  
 
CAM DATA SHOWS AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN OUR  
EASTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY, AND THEN SHIFTS IT EAST OF THE AREA IN  
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS  
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT EXITS THE AREA.  
 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES  
TO BE BULLISH ON STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT  
IT IS NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS  
CONTINUES TO BE PESSIMISTIC ON DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE  
TRENDING DOWNWARD.  
 
THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DEEP MIXED LAYER EXTENDING  
ABOVE 850MB, BUT ONLY HAS AROUND 30KTS OF WIND IN THAT LAYER. WE  
WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AS THE  
15 MPH SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA SHOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT TO MEET,  
BUT CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS OVER 35 MPH IS NOT GREAT AT THIS TIME.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA QUIET FOR LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PIVOT FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY  
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE "DUMB-BELLING" WITH  
ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, AND THE  
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS, AND THEREFORE HAVE  
TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE CONVECTION.  
 
THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER BRINGING THE CONVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST  
MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND THEN  
MOVE THE CONVECTION THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY  
ON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH DAMAGING WINDS ONCE AGAIN THE  
MAIN CONCERN. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY EAST  
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WITH  
RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.  
 
THE WESTERN TROUGH, EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY  
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY  
WEDNESDAY. FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BAND OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH  
MIDDAY. HOWEVER, THE REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION  
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY  
WILL LIKELY BE VERY DISORGANIZED THOUGH WITH A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL  
FORCING BY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE REST OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, VERY WARM, AND  
RATHER HUMID AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/CMC, THE GFS FOCUSES MOST OF THE  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. IT  
DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY  
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE ECWMF/CMC ARE DRY AND INDICATE A STRONGER  
INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE. THE BLENDED FORECAST WILL CARRY A SLIGHT  
CHANCE ON SATURDAY MAINLY DUE TO THE WETTER GFS.  
 
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90,  
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019  
 
WE WILL HAVE RUN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT  
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AT TIMES WE MAY EVEN ENCOUNTER A CLAP OF  
THUNDER. CIGS AND VSBY WILL GO MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND IN THE  
MORNING. WHERE WE LOSE THE GUSTS...MAINLY EVV AND OWB WE COULD  
ENCOUNTER LLWS. VFR CONDITION START TO RETURN LATE MONDAY.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.  
 
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.  
 
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.  
 
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DRS  
LONG TERM...RJP  
AVIATION...KH  
 
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