347
FXUS63 KPAH 221701
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY PENNYRILE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A WEAK SPIN UP TORNADO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD A SEVERE STORM OCCUR.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY WITH ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.
- TOTAL AVAREGE RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT WEEK; LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS COULD RESULT IN
MINOR FLOOD ISSUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
EXPECT SHOWERS/MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS A WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY THRU THIS EVENING. IT RIDES ALONG AND LIFTS A WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY, WHICH MODELS NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
PENNYRILE COUNTIES. IF SO, AND IF BINOVC OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION,
THERE MAY JUICE UP JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION, AND IF THAT HAPPENS, INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR
ATOP IT WITH SOME BROADENING OF THE HODOGRAPH DUE TO THE
LOW/WARM SECTOR VICINITY TRACK INCREASES HELICITY ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE SPC MRGL RISK SVR FOR ISOLATED SPINUP/DAMAGING
WINDS; A NON-ZERO CHANCE. PRIMARILY IT'S A GOOD SOAKING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE NAEFS E-SAT STILL INDICATING HIGH 99TH
PERCENTILE PW'S IN EXCESS OF 1.75" YIELDING 5-10 YR RETURN
INTERVALS SUGGESTIVE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH
OVERALL IT'S GENERALLY WELCOME OVERTOP OUR DRIEST GROUNDS IN THE
CWA STILL RUNNING D3 ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED REPRESENTS THE FIRST IN A SUCCESSION OF
ROUNDS OR CHANCE ROUNDS OF PCPN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT
WON'T BE ENTIRELY WET DESPITE THE DAILY CHANCES THOUGH, AS MUCH
OF SATURDAY LOOKS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, DESPITE SMALL
CHANCES THAT EXIST. MOST ENSUING DAILY CHANCES COME EITHER WITH
A WAVE/ITS PRESENCE OR THE DIURNAL BREATHING CYCLE (AND/OR
BOTH), BEGINNING WITH NEXT BEST CHANCES OVER THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. CHANCES SWELL AGAIN IN THE MID WEEK PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IF THE DEVELOPING REX BLOCK PATTERN THAT
LOOKS LIKE IS TAKING SHAPE CHANGES ITS SYNOPTIC FEATURE MODELING
LATITUDINALLY OR LONGITUDINALLY EVEN JUST A LITTLE BIT, THIS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT OUR POPS FORECAST. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS STEADY
AS SHE GOES ON THE NEW WEEK'S FORECAST WITH DAILY HIGHS NEAR 80F
OR IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS THAT'LL START RUNNING NIGHTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH DETERIORATED/RESTRICTED CIGS AND VSBYS AS A
WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTERWARD,
PCPN CHANCES DWINDLE BUT LOW BASED CIGS AND RESTRICTED VSBYS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH
DAYBREAK TMRW, WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD BUT NOT QUITE TO VFR (CIGS)
THRU THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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