869
FXUS63 KPAH 082238
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TODAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS, WITH HAIL THE MAIN RISK
ARE FORECAST - MAINLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES CREEP BACK IN LATE SUNDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WELL INTO THE 80S, ARE FORECAST THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE REGION IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG COMBINATION
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT ABOUT 30-35 KTS AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. AREAS WHERE THAT COMBO EXISTS ARE IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND SOME CONVECTION ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ARE BRIEFLY
EXTENDING TO CLOSE TO SEVERE LIMITS. IN THE BETTER SHEAR OVER
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY STORMS
HAVE BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR HAIL. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE TODAY. THE ABSOLUTE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME DOWNBURST RISK BUT THE THETA-E DIFFERENCE IS ONLY
ABOUT 10 K. RAINFALL HAS BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY WITH SLOW MOVING
STORMS LEADING TO ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING IN A FEW PLACES.
RAIN AND THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT USHERING IN A QUIETER
PERIOD OF WEATHER. CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUITE THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW DANCES BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND THEN MAKES A RE-APPROACH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW
SWIRLS ABOUT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER BROAD AND
LARGE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS SETS UP A
BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE THAT POURS IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR FROM THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF
(DEWPOINTS ARE 77 IN SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON). THAT LEADS TO
A MARKED INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SWIRLING
UPPER LOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWER- END POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BOARD. QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY BUILDS IN ON THE LOW 70S DEWPOINTS BUT AGAIN, NO
REAL OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER EXISTS TO FOCUS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS THRU AND AWAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ALL INDICATIONS THAT RESTRICTED BASES/CIGS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT TONIGHT, DESPITE POTENTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.
WITH THE LOW'S FURTHER DEPARTURE TMRW, ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO
SCOUR BY THE TIME OF THE PLANNING PHASE OF THE FORECAST, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST GUSTINESS THRU THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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