213
FXUS63 KPAH 181855
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1247 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS MAY DROP A QUICK HALF INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL AS A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH/PASSAGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
ENHANCE TOTALS LOCALLY. THE RAIN ENDS TONIGHT JUST AS THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES, SO A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR
BEFORE ITS COMPLETE END, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
- WIND GUSTS 30-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT'S APPROACH/PASSAGE. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THRU MIDNIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SEE-SAW WITH A COLD BLAST TONIGHT-FRIDAY, A
BRIEF WARMUP SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY, AND THEN A MORE SUSTAINED WARMUP ENSUES NEXT
WEEK THAT CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
BLUF: IMPRESSIVE OVER-PERFORMING GUSTS IN CENTRAL MO EARLIER
TODAY NECESSITATED A DOWNSTREAM UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS OUR NORTH. WE'VE SEEN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH ALREADY IN
THE PRE FRONTAL ENVIRON, AND ALL MODELED INDICATIONS ARE THESE
SHOULD PICK UP WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS
IN THE POST FROPA CAA ENVIRON. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS
UPWARDS TO 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTH, SO WE'VE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG/NORTH OF A CAPE-EVANSVILLE LINE.
WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT A LITTLE AFTER THIS WRITING, AND
COLLABORATE WITH OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS, TO SEE IF A
SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IS WARRANTED AFTER THIS WRITING, BUT FOR
NOW, WE'LL STICK WITH OUR GOING SPS APPROACH SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THAT COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED
HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL, BUT THIS CHANCE IS LIKELY LESS THAN 5%.
HALF INCH OR SO QPF TOTALS ARE ON PAR, BUT IF A STORM OCCURS,
RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. ALL POPS WIND
DOWN/DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z JUST AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES, SO A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR BEFORE
ITS COMPLETE END, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
A COLD BLAST OF AIR IS ALSO INCOMING, DROPPING US INTO THE 20S
AGIN TONIGHT. TMRW WILL STRUGGLE THRU THE 30S, WITH SOUTHERN
PARTS MAYBE REACHING INTO THE LOWER HALF 40S WITH SUNSHINE'S
RETURN. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHED BY THEN, SO WIND CHILLS WON'T
BE AS MUCH A CONCERN.
MILD ALBEIT BRIEF RECOVERY IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT'S REINFORCING COOLDOWN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. THEN...A MORE SUSTAINED WARMUP ENSUES FOR
THE NEW HOLIDAY WEEK, AND IT CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO CHRISTMAS
WITH 60S COMMONPLACE. RAIN CHANCES ARE JUST THAT, CARRYING
HIT-AND-MISS, SPORADIC CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THRU THE HOLIDAY
PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PREVAIL EXCEPT IN SHOWERS, WHERE IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST WITH FROPA AND
INCREASE IN GUST POTENTIAL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO/ACROSS THE TN VALLEY,
RELAXING THE GRADIENT AND SCATTERING OUR BASES SOMETIME BY OR AT
LEAST DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-
080>089.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ TONIGHT FOR INZ081-
082-085-086.
KY...NONE.
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