023
FXUS63 KPAH 282323
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
523 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 TO
45 MPH.
- A BRIEF BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD AND THERE IS A 60-90 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WIND
CHILL VALUES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
RIGHT NOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS ABOUT 998MB
AND DEEPENING. A SHARP/VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM
JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD, MO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOW. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WE ARE SEEING SPOTTY GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT I SEE 40-50 MPH GUSTS IN PLACES OVER NE/IA/MO.
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS ARE BUBBLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIKELY BEING
HELD UP FOR THE MEANTIME BY A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION APPARENT
ON OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THIS AREA AND STRETCHING
BACK TOWARDS THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS BROADLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A NARROW BAND
OF MORE INTENSE LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THEN STRETCHING
WESTWARD INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS THAT IS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WORKING ON DAILY
RECORD MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS 60 TO
63. THERE ARE STILL 66 TO 68 DEGREE DEWPOINTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST
IN ARKANSAS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS. RAP ANALYSIS YIELDS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, AND BUILDING SLOWLY AS THE LIFT WORKS OUT THE
CAPPING INVERSION AND STEEPENS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY.
MODIFIED RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 500-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE QUAD-STATE AS THE FRONT BEGINS
MOVING IN BY MID-AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN TO QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION FORMING UP BY 3 TO 4 PM, AND
FROM THE TRENDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER MISSOURI THIS ISN'T
HARD TO PICTURE.
THESE STORMS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH 850MB WINDS 40-50 KTS OR
SO, WITH MORE WESTERLY 500MB WINDS AROUND 70KT. SHEAR VALUES AND
VECTORS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES ARE ABOUT 250-300 M2/S2. WITH THE SHARP VERY
COLD AND DENSE AIRMASS BEING PUSHED IN BEHIND THE FRONT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY HAVE A CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS EXTREMELY CLOSE, AND
PROBABLY OCCASIONALLY UNDERCUT BY THIS ADVANCING COLD AIRMASS.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY MITIGATE THE SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT
AT TIMES. WHEREVER IT DOES NOT HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO BE ON
GUARD FOR WIND/TORNADO SPINUPS FOLLOWED BY A BLITZ OF COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH LIKELY CONTINUING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE BASED ON
HOW THINGS LOOK UP STREAM. ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE WE WILL HAVE
PERIODS OF A RELATIVELY BENIGN CONVECTIVE LINE RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT RAPIDLY EVOLVES INTO MORE SURFACE BASED
ACTION THAT PRODUCES MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT AND THEN FALLS BACK
BEHIND.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SET UP THEN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 10S TO SINGLE DIGITS.
WE THEN SEE SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE
IT TRIES TO WORK BACK MORE ZONAL. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT BRING
SOME PRECIP CHANCE, BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE OR CONSISTENT RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR NOW LOOK
TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR A CHANGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND LOWS CLOSE TO FREEZING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BY 03Z,
IT IS EXPECTED ANY CONVECTION WILL BE EAST AND MOVING OUT.
BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-22 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS FROM THE GRADIENT WINDS. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS FROM THE LINE OF STORMS AND COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED. GUIDANCE STILL HINTS MVFR CIGS
RETURNING FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE DAY TOMORROW FOR EVV/OWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /7 AM EST/ MONDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...AD
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