057
FXUS63 KPAH 211719
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1219 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
- GENERALLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AN UL OMEGA BLOCK HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED, WITH OUR CWA ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE 250 MB RIDGE AS OF 16Z. AS SUCH, HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST,
LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND SEASONABLE, IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY
PROGRESSION OF THE UL TROUGH, BUT VORTICITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
VALUES ARE LOW, AND 250 MB FLOW IS ONLY WEAKLY PERTURBED. GFS
AND ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROG <40%, SO CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THOUGH, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA.
GIVEN WEAK SURFACE FLOW, PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE RADIATION FOG
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND IN SURROUNDING LOW-LYING
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CLOUDS
TOMORROW MORNING WILL NOT HINDER THE SUN’S ABILITY TO QUICKLY
ERODE THIS FOG, SO EXPECT THE FOG THREAT TO BE ELIMINATED BY 15Z
TOMORROW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CALM OR VERY LIGHT NE
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-LYING RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE 11-13Z THURSDAY PERIOD.
INCLUDED THIS IN THE CGI AND OWB TAFS WHERE IMPACTS ARE MOST
LIKELY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJW/DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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