868
FXUS63 KPAH 051112
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE AT CONVECTION IS THURSDAY OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 30-60%.
SOME EARLIER STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 90 DEGREE HIGHS RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING
INTO THE LOW 100S ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT IS SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY TO
BE POSITIONED THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC A
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL IL, CENTRAL MO, AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH IS WHERE IT WILL LARGELY STALL OUT. AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY, A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL SPUR ON A FEW SHOWERS AN STORMS BY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SEMO AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IL. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON THURSDAY, 30-60% POPS COME
BACK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING
OVER WEST KY. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH. THURSDAY IN PARTICULAR, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY BRINGING BACK HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES BACK INTO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE THROUGH EARLY WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN 20-30% POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AND BRING SOME POTENTIAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A DIURNAL CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AT AROUND 5K FT. THEN SOME CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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