892
FXUS63 KPAH 181930 CCA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI,
HIGHER PRESSURE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY, WITH AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS THURSDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE
SUPPORTS THIS, WITH CLOUDS MOVING WEST FROM THE APPALACHIANS, AND
CU AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL KY. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT, JUST SOME
TYPICAL SEPTEMBER PATCHY GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE
WILL GO ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY, A PERSISTENCE
APPROACH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019
..CORRECTED
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STOUT RIDGE THAT'S BEEN ACTING AS A WEATHER DEFLECTOR WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING FRIDAY IN THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS OF SE MISSOURI. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SE MISSOURI AND S ILLINOIS, WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1-1.5+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE FRONT
APPEARS TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND RAINFALL TOTALS TREND DOWN
TO NEAR NOTHING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHERN
PENNYRILE OF KY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THIS FLOW, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....DWS
AVIATION.....08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page