109
FXUS63 KPAH 071800
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX READINGS REACH
95-100 ON TUESDAY AND 100-108 ON WEDNESDAY. HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN FALL BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL LATE WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS (60-90% CHANCE OF RAIN) ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
(20-40%).
- THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE (50-70%) OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
90 AGAIN BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS PROVIDING
LOVELY WEATHER TODAY. MIDDAY TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IL AND GENERALLY LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. LIKELY WILL SEE OUR
STRING OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS HITTING 90 DEGREES END AT 9 DAYS EXCEPT
PERHAPS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
BACK INTO OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL USHER IN A RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY AS DEW POINTS NUDGE UP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AGAIN. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 100 IN MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH 95 TO 100 COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
108. HEATRISK IS UP TO LEVEL 3 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND IT'S QUITE
POSSIBLE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN, SOMETHING THAT
WILL CERTAINLY BE NEEDED, GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN THAT HAS DEVELOPED.
QPF LOOKS GREATEST ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 0.25" AND A 40-50% CHANCE OF 0.50" THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE PLACES ALONG THE AR/TN BORDERS HAVE ONLY ABOUT A 40%
CHANCE AT RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.25" VIA THE LREF. THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT A FEW ARE POSSIBLE. SEEMS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THOSE COULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
64 BUT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WINDOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR
SOUTH IF WE MANAGE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP.
WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW
70). THEREFORE, IT MAY END UP STAYING RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN HINTING AT THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO OUR REGION YET
AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK. MOST SOLUTIONS KEEP IT SHORT-
LIVED THOUGH WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ARRIVING BY MID WEEK. LREF HAS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD (50-70%) OF HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING 90 AGAIN BY
SUNDAY-MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
NE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DEEPER
MIXING MAY ALLOW SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN OUR NORTH. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/CALM THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS DON'T APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
WEST KY INTO SOUTHWEST IN TOMORROW MORNING LIKELY RESULTING IN
SOME LOW VFR CLOUD BASES BY LATE MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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