258
FXUS63 KPAH 251812
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-80%
CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW
TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG I-64 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE WILL INITIATE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, AS STORM WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY
MOIST PWAT VALUES, AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PROGGED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAVE
PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT
TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SHEAR AS WELL. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR NORTH,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION (BOTH SUPERCELLS AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS) WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL AND
MOVE EAST INTO WEST KY AND SOUTHWEST IN. CONCERN IS GROWING THAT
WE COULD SEE A FEW REPORTS OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, IN ADDITION TO MORE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
ISSUES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAG INTO THE AREA BEFORE
WASHING OUT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTH AS A VERY STOUT H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AROUND 20-24C, TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 105 TO 110F ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND. A HEAT ADVISORY OR EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WILL LIKELY BEEN NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT,
IMPACTING MVN, EVV AND OWB. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
IN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT, AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE PREDAWN TO MID-MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. SCT-
BKN DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 2500 TO 3500FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RISING TO 5-8KFT FRIDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW AROUND 4-8
KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT /5 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ014-018.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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