009
FXUS63 KPAH 062032
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
232 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PRESENT BUT HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A LINGERING RISK POSSIBLY
OVER SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- INTERVALS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, SOME AMOUNTS LOCALLY HEAVY,
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
LIMITED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE
QUAD STATE, ALLOWING FOR A LATE SURGE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW
TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCATIONS, IF CLEAR SKIES ARE ABLE TO REMAIN. LOW CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH, MAINLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE.
ACTIVE WEATHER LATE WEEK STEMS FROM A PAIR OF SYSTEMS OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE FACT THAT BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAIN OFFSHORE
UNTIL TOMORROW HAS CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PATTERN.
1. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND EMERGES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
THURSDAY. IT THEN QUICKLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL INTENSIFY,
REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG, BUT LIMITED IN DURATION. THE EC
CONTINUES TO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN THE GFS,
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RUN, BUT MAY BE OVERMIXING.
STRONG SHEAR REMAINS WHILE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF
A QUESTION MARK. SHOULD MOISTURE OVERPERFORM, MORE ACTIVE
SURFACE BASED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE,
OTHERWISE, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED.
POSITIONING IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET IS LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM LEAVES US IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
D3 EXTENDING ROUGHLY TWO-THIRDS THE WAY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
THIS MODEL CYCLE HAS BEEN SHOWING INCREASING SIGNS OF MODELS
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUES, WITH WEAKER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
2. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING. ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY,
PASSING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SURGING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID-SOUTH, BUT THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIMIT NORTHWARD EXTENT. THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW, ALONG WITH SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET, WILL HELP FIRE OFF SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS...BUT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO DO SO IN TN, WITH SHOWERS AND MORE
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT. AS A RESULT, ONLY THE TN BORDER AREA OF KY IS
INCLUDED IN A D4 SLIGHT RISK. THE MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK ALGORITHMS WHICH ONCE FAVORED FRIDAY HAVE BACKED
OFF IN INTENSITY AND HAVE SHIFTED THE FOCUS AREA SOUTH OF THE
QUAD STATE. DUE TO THE STALLING FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
THE PM SHOWERS, WESTERN KENTUCKY HAS THE HIGHER STORM TOTAL QPF
OF 1-1.5 INCHES WHILE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE QUAD STATE IS MORE
LIKELY TO SEE TOTALS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH. FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY, PERHAPS SOME BRIEF PONDING WITH STRONGER STORMS. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE QUAD STATE, MODELS TEND TO MERGE
IT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SYSTEM PLUNGING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
CANADIAN AIR ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT
WILL DO SO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE'S LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT
IN CLEAR SKY AREAS, WHICH MAY BE LOCALIZED TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED SITES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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