186
FXUS63 KPAH 211710
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1210 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT, LINGERING INTO MONDAY; LOCALIZED FLOODING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND MOSTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY, BEFORE
SCATTERED STORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MARCHING ACROSS MO WILL PUSH OUR
NORTHERN/WESTERN REACHES THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO 4 DIGITS, DESPITE INCOMING CLOUDS RETARDING THE
DIURNAL RISE. DEW POINTS ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WILL SOLIDIFY THEIR GROUND OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE FA
THIS PM. BULK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SIMILARLY IMPROVE WITH THE
SYSTEM'S APPROACH, SO ANY PM STORM DOES SHOW STRONG-SVR POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, THE TRACK OF THIS DRIVING LOW LOOKS PRIMARILY TO BE TO
OUR NORTH, AND THE MAIN FIRST THREAT LOOKS TO FOLLOW ITS TRACK.
OUR BEST BEST FOR MORE ROBUST/WIDESPREAD STORMS COMES LATER,
INTO THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME, AS THE 2NDARY WAVE DEVELOPS AND
RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY THEN, THE UPPER SHEAR PROFILES HAVE
PEAKED, AND HELICITY PICKS UP, AT LEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY/IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE'S TRACK, WHICH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT AN ALL HAZARDS SEVERE MODE WITH
THIS WAVE, AND IN ADDITION, NEAR 2" PW'S WITH E-SAT'S SHOWING
10-30 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS SUGGEST AN EFFICIENCY TO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS THAT IF THEY TRAIN/REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS,
COULD ENHANCE STORM AVERAGE FORECAST TOTAL SIGNALS OF AROUND AN
INCH, TO LOCALIZED TOTALS 2-3X HIGHER. WE'LL THEREFORE CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH IN OUR PEAK THREAT AREAS NORTH FOR NOW, WITH
COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS DRIVING ANY SOUTHWARD EXPANSION.
STORMS LINGER ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW'S TRACK
UP THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH ULTIMATELY WINDS POPS DOWN WITH
RELATIVELY COOLER/DRIER AIR COMING IN ITS PLACE BY TUESDAY. POPS
START TO PICK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, ESP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
STORM CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS INCREASING WITH POPS. PEAK
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WHEN STRONGER
STORMS MAY DRIVE INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES AT TIMES. SOUTH WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST UPON SYSTEM PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TMRW,
AS LOW END MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR BASED CIGS PREVAIL. THEY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISPERSE AS POPS COMPLETE THEIR DIMINISHING
FROM THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE
FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075-081-
085.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>083.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ007>009-
011-012.
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