309
FXUS63 KPAH 082337
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, THEN THE MERCURY WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MT VERNON AND FAIRFIELD AREAS IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY SEE LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
30S.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
SHOULD BE NEAR 80 THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
QUAD STATE COOL AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COOLEST DAY WILL
BE THURSDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.
PORTIONS OF THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE MAY NOT REACH 70 THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT, AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR COULD
DROP JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES, BUT THE NBM IS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO
NOT ADD ANY FROST INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. A MINOR SHIFT LOWER
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST BEING
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
A COMPACT STORM SYSTEM WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE QUAD
STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY,
LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DROP TO AROUND 3-4 KTS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
PERIODS OF CALMING POSSIBLE IN SE MISSOURI AND SW ILLINOIS THAT
MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS NEAR RIVERS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH MIDDAY-AFTERNOON GUSTS TOMORROW
AROUND 15 KTS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...ATL
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