015
FXUS63 KPAH 261857
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
157 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE EVENING. A 30-60%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY TO THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, A 20-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
60S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND THEN DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A TINY SURFACE LOW, MOST NOTICEABLE IN RADAR IMAGERY, CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE LAKES IN WEST
KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LARGER, BUT STILL
WEAK, SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE MID-SECTION OF THE QUAD STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOW TRACK, MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY
PRESENT. IT WON'T TAKE MUCH OF AN UPDRAFT TO POTENTIALLY
STRETCH THAT PRE-EXISTING VORTICITY INTO A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO.
OTHERWISE, IF WE CAN HEAT UP ANY AT ALL, WE COULD END UP WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.
GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE
REGION, A FEW WET MICROBURSTS COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY MORE PERSISTENT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE, AS TODD COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR HAS RECEIVED WELL OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE
LAST 12-18 HOURS. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES COULD
DEVELOP.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET, BUT
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IT WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVV
TRI STATE AREA. THE ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE TOWARD DAYBREAK, AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NORTHEAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL COME BACK SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY, AND THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE COLD FRONT MAY HANG UP OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THE
CONVECTION MAY SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE. FINALLY BY THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH
THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE THREAT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE QUAD
STATE. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCES INVOLVED,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING DETAILS IS NOT GREAT, BUT CERTAINLY BY
SUNDAY THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE 12Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCGI AND KPAH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AND THEN LATER INTO THE
EVENING AT KEVV AND KOWB. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD MIDDLE GROUND OF THE POSSIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP TOWARD IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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