118
FXUS63 KPAH 131720
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1120 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHARPLY COLDER AIR IS ON THE WAY WITH A FRONT PLUNGING THROUGH
BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW ZERO. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
- THE COLD IS SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE MID WEEK AND
COME UP TO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW 60S ON
THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
A MEGA COLD FRONT IS ON THE WAY THIS MORNING. THE LOW THAT
BROUGHT YESTERDAYS WEATHER SHIFTED OUR PREDOMINANT FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY, BUT THE LOW 30S
NEAR ST. LOUIS AND KANSAS CITY GIVE WAY RAPIDLY TO MID 10S AND
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND IA. WITH NOTHING STOPPING
IT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEHIND IT AMPLIFYING OVER THE WEST EXPECT
IT WILL MAKE QUICK WORK OF ITS TRANSIT, LIKELY ARRIVING BY
MIDDAY AND DROPPING OUR TEMPERATURES SHARPLY UPON ITS ARRIVAL.
OUR DAILY MAX TS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS
AND DID A LOT OF HAND MANIPULATION OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TO GET IT MORE REPRESENTATIVE TO OBS TRENDS. GUSTY WINDS PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EXCEPTIONAL COLD
ADVECTION. WIND CHILLS DROP BELOW ZERO BY LATE EVENING AND
EXPANDED THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE
COUNTIES BUT LEFT THE START TIME INTACT AT 06Z. THE THRESHOLD IS
-5 IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ROUGHLY AND 0 EVERYWHERE
ELSE, WHICH SHOULD BE WELL IN HAND.
THE DENSITY/SLUDGINESS OF THE FORCED COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN A
VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL SLOPE AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LIFT IN THE
LOWEST 150 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
DRIZZLE WHICH WOULD PRESENT AS FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE COLD
SURFACES. I DON'T THINK THE AMOUNT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL UP THE
MENTION MESSAGING-WISE A BIT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE NEW
FORECAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO SWIN AND VICINITY JET-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A DEPARTING JET-MAX TO
GIVE MORE OF A SNOW SOLUTION, ALTHOUGH THE LIFT LOOKS FLEETING
AND QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT LEVELS TOO LOW FOR MUCH IMPACT.
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALL MOSTLY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHEREVER THE CENTER
OF THE 1042 MB HIGH FALLS I IMAGINE WE WILL TANK DOWN BELOW
ZERO, OR CERTAINLY WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DO THAT, BASED ON
THE PATTERN/DRYNESS/RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.
FORTUNATELY THE EXTREME COLD IS SHORT-LIVED AND THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL JET PATTERN
THEN STARTS FEATURING SMALL LOW-PREDICTABILITY RIPPLES THAT WILL
IMPACT HOW WARM WE GET AND WHAT OUR PRECIP CHANCES ARE. THE GFS
STAYS A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE WITH THE FEATURES AND SHOWS A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWER, AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH DEEP LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW. WHERE THE ECMWF RAMPS UP A BIG SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BOTH FOR NOW MAX PRECIP CHANCES OUT ON THURSDAY BUT
THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP (MORE CONVECTIVE OF FRONTAL STRATIFORM)
WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED A LITTLE LATER ON AS THE SYNOPTIC
PICTURE DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE TODAY AND WON'T
SCATTER OUT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LATER. SOME MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
AROUND MVN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT RIGHT NOW THAT IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE, SO ONLY WENT WITH A PROB30. DRY AIR ALSO SEEMS
TO BE IMPEDING ANY DRIZZLE FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA, SO REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY
AND WILL BE NORTHERLY OVERALL. WINDS COULD PICKUP BRIEFLY LATER
THIS EVENING AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR MOZ076-086-087-110>112-114.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /1 PM EST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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