645
FXUS63 KPAH 031728
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1128 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WARM UP ARRIVES NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF
REACHING 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- INTERVALS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF RAIN PEAKING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERS INTO FRIDAY.
- TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE FA. HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY TURN
MORE ZONAL AS A 1024 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND AS A AMPLIFIED 250 MB PACIFIC JET REGIME SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN MOIST
WARM AIR THAT WILL SUPPORT 850 MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE 10C BY TUESDAY.
THIS YIELDS TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK MAY BE
WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE THE WARMEST WITH A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS BY
12Z FRIDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE FRONT TRANSVERSING ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE KINEMATICS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH THE NOSE OF A 80-
100 KT JET MAX AT 500 MB APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S, MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND ROBUST 50-70 KTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR. THE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW ON INSTABILITY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING TO NO THUNDER MENTION BY THE NBM IN THE WX
GRIDS. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE SHOWING UPWARDS 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. GIVEN 5-10 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS FOR TEMPERATURE ON THE
ESAT, IT IS PROBABLE THAT SFC INSTABILITY IS NOT BEING MODELED WELL.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY
RANGE FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST. THE ENS
AND GEPS ARE WETTER THAN THE GEFS WHICH TRANSLATES TO A 70-80% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING A HALF INCH WHILE THE PROBABILITY DROPS TO 30-40% FOR
EXCEEDING ONE INCH. GIVEN PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE LONG
DURATION OF WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL, FLOODING ISSUES SEEM
UNLIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN
5-10 KTS TURN LIGHT & VARIABLE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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