572  
FXUS63 KPAH 181955  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
255 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
WE ARE PLANNING TO KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING GOING AS IS  
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR  
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT OTHER THAN WEST KENTUCKY MOST OF THE AREA HAS  
HEAT INDICES BACK ABOVE 100 AND A LOT OF PLACES WILL STILL LIKELY  
GET TO 105. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED PULLING WEST KENTUCKY BACK TO A  
HEAT ADVISORY, BUT WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WORST  
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA, DECIDED TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING  
TO NOT CONFUSE THE PUBLIC.  
 
SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MCV JUST SOUTH OF OUR  
BORDER INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE, AND FIGURE MOST OF IT WILL STAY  
DOWN THERE, BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS  
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER JUST TO BE SAFE.  
 
NO GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE UPPER 70 AND LOWER  
80 DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SO  
TRIED TO STAY A BIT ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT LEAST FOR TOMORROW.  
ALSO, TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE MIDDLE 90S FOR  
TOMORROW, BUT THAT SEEMS A BIT FAR-FETCHED GIVEN THE EXTREMELY  
HIGH DEWPOINTS. ALSO, EVEN AREAS TO OUR NORTHWEST THAT HAD  
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ARE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER  
90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE  
DETAILS IS NOT GREAT, BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY, IT  
WILL FEEL DISGUSTING OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH MAX AFTERNOON  
HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-108 RANGE.  
 
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT COOLER, MORE INTO THE LOWER 90S, FOR  
SATURDAY, AND THE GFS EVEN TRIES TO BRING SOME CONVECTION UP INTO  
WEST KENTUCKY. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS NOT LIKELY HIGH ENOUGH WITH  
DEWPOINTS, SO THAT MAY OFFSET THE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES.  
FORECAST MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE 102-107 OVER MOST  
OF THE REGION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST  
AREA BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING IT THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT  
SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,  
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE  
CATEGORY AT BEST FOR OUR REGION FOR NOW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT  
AND MUGGY SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE  
A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER, BUT WITH  
DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S, HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH  
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL  
REACHING AROUND 105 DEGREES.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE  
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID  
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, AND DEW POINTS DROPPING IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR  
LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE GRADUALLY BY THURSDAY, BUT  
HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND DEW POINTS WILL  
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
THE TAFS ARE VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS  
INTO THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND  
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-  
080>094.  
 
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-  
100-107>112-114.  
 
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-  
085>088.  
 
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DRS  
LONG TERM...RST  
AVIATION...DRS  
 
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