007
FXUS63 KPAH 272244
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
543 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE GREATEST THREAT. THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES FALLING ON
TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION.
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS ROUND BUT FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS A SERIOUS CONCERN.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 105 AND 110 MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HEATWAVE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AN MCV MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS LEADING TO CONVECTION
TICKING UP IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG WITH EXTREMELY HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80 RANGE). A SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHERN MO IS RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE MID LEVEL SHEAR, WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS
(STRONGEST BEHIND THIS INITIAL MCV). LOW LEVEL SHEAR ISN'T THAT
GREAT (AROUND 15 KTS), BUT IT'S ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GET A SPIN UP OR
TWO. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS CONVECTION PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL AND WEST KY.
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN WITH STORMS PRODUCING
VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES FALLING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS. POCKETS OF 3-6" HAVE OCCURRED ALONG WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF
6-10" IN PART OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH WITHIN
15-20 MINUTES AND HOURLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 2". PWATS ARE IN THE 2
TO 2.2" RANGE. AFTER A LULL MID TO LATE EVENING, CAMS INDICATE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BUBBLING UP ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING THREAT. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE
STORMS OVERNIGHT, BUT THEY CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
A 594-597DM RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
EXPANDING FURTHER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
READINGS REACHING 105 TO 110 ON A DAILY BASIS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ON SUNDAY MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK SOME IN THE NORTH AND EAST, SO
THESE AREAS MAY ONLY REACH ABOUT 100 ON THE HEAT INDEX. HOWEVER, FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE
AREA. THEREAFTER, AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 110. AFTER ONLY
EXPERIENCING 2 DAYS REACHING 90 SO FAR IN PADUCAH (TIED WITH 2003
FOR FEWEST THROUGH JUNE 27TH), SUMMER IS ABOUT TO KICK INTO FULL
GEAR.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE HEATWAVE LINGERING THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE THAT MAY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. SO IT'S POSSIBLE
THE HEAT GETS TURNED DOWN A NOTCH, MAYBE ONLY HIGHS AROUND 90 AND
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE LOW 100S (MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME
LEVELS).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
ACTIVE CONVECTION STILL AT KPAH/KOWB AT THIS WRITING MAY LINGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE EXPECT CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO LESSEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES, AS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT OTHER
TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT REDEVLOPMENT AND
WHERE THAT DOES NOT OCCUR, POTENTIALLY LOWER RESTRICTED BASES OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS/FOG...SO HAVE INCLUDED THOSE POTENTIAL FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS WELL. MORE GENERAL AND EXPANSIVE IMPROVEMENTS TO MORE
CONCLUSIVELY RETURN TO VFR WILL OCCUR TMRW, ESP DURING THE PLANNING
PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /1 PM EDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/
SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
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