374
FXUS63 KPAH 080344
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1044 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. PEAK TIMING
FOR HEAVY RAINS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER, PRIMARILY FOCUSED
IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WARM/DRY RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MEET UP WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS. THE OUTFLOW FROM
ISAIAS APPEARS TO INFLUENCE THE SHAPE OF THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET MAX AS IT SQUEEZES INTO THE SOUTH AND BECOMES
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO BE OVER AL/MS WITH A SHARP TROUGH
JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND AN 80-100 KT JET MAXIMA EVACUATING
MASS FROM THE STORM AND ITS VICINITY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE INJECTION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SPED UP SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL INCREASING QUITE A
BIT ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM
APPEARING MORE LIKELY TO BE CLEARING TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS PRETTY GOOD ON A HURRICANE COMING ONSHORE
IN LINE WITH THE NHC TRACK SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORM MOVES
QUICKLY INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OWING TO THE ABUNDANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF WIND FIELDS, PARTICULARLY AT 850/925 MB
REMAIN QUITE STRONG ALTHOUGH A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY LIMIT MIXING EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS (40 MPH OR HIGHER) - WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR THAT
PROBABLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE. THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL WIND
FIELD THOUGH DOES DRIVE A LOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND IF THEY ARE AS STRONG AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY BE HEAVIER THAN CURRENT QPF
INDICATES. I'M A LITTLE CONCERNED THE GFS SPINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM DOWN TOO FAST AND THE ECMWF MAY BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
THREAT. THE SEVERE RISK/TORNADO RISK APPEARS MUTED DUE TO
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY BUT THE SHEAR APPEARS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR IT TO AT LEAST POTENTIALLY BE A CONCERN. THE RISK
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BUT LIKELY NOT QUITE ZERO, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO WORK THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TURNS BACK UP AND KEEPS THINGS FAIRLY
WARM, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 3-5 KTS AND EVENTUALLY NE AROUND 5-10 KTS BY
12-15Z. ADDITIONAL SHALLOW RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT CGI
AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH WINDS
RELAXING TO UNDER 3-5 KTS THURSDAY EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page