820
FXUS63 KPAH 310434
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1034 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
IS STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE, BUT
THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION AND A SHORTER
DURATION EVENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST OVER THE QUAD STATE
TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING THE FINAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND SOME
CLOUD COVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE QUAD
STATE TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10KTS SUSTAINED, AND
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL REACH 5 BELOW BY 02Z OR
03Z, SO MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO
9 PM CST. OTHERWISE, THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW -10F IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND -5F IN THE FAR
SOUTH. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY DROP TO NEAR ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THE WIND WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL, SO NO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER PATTERN RELAXES EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE ON
MONDAY, AND SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL ON
TUESDAY, AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS REACH 40 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. THE MILDER
AIR AND COOL RAIN SHOULD HELP KICK-START THE SNOW MELTING
PROCESS ACROSS THE REGION.
THANKFULLY, THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE OUTLIER WITH
ITS COMPACT WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE QUAD
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECENS HAS TRENDED TOWARD LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND JUST A GLANCING BLOW MAINLY IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. ITS CHANCE OF 0.10" OR MORE OF
LIQUID IS ONLY 30-40% OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND WEST KENTUCKY WITH
LOWER CHANCES NORTH AND WEST. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN A COLDER
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS, WHILE NOT
TERRIBLY WET, IS NOT AS DRY AS AND DOES NOT HAVE AS SHORT A
DURATION AS THE ECENS, BUT DOES SHOW THE SAME TRENDS, ONLY
WEAKER.
THIS CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, WITH
DISTURBANCES IN MULTIPLE FLOWS INTERACTING IN OUR VICINITY. THIS
MAY NOT BE SETTLED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE OVERALL
TRENDS OF WARMER AIR TO START AND A MORE GLANCING BLOW ARE
POSITIVE SIGNS THAT THIS EVENT WILL NOT HAVE THAT GREAT OF AN
IMPACT ON THE QUAD STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE BACK WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER TONIGHT AND MAY SIMPLY THICKEN TO
LOW VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE STILL REMAINS A 30-40% CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS ARRIVES AT KEVV/KOWB BY MID DAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AT KMVN/KPAH, AS MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT. HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR MENTION
GIVEN A 60-70% CHANCE. LOW CIGS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT SATURDAY
EVENING, BUT LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-16 KTS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS ON
SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /1 PM EST/ SATURDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DW
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