662
FXUS63 KPAH 230447
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021
MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION
TONIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS BY AROUND 06Z. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ONLY
SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST BY DAYBREAK WITH THE WAVE BECOMING
LESS DEFINED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL CONFINE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN HALF OF COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021
TWO SYSTEMS OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM. FIRST IS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING A S/WV TROF
WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWERS A GOOD BET, WITH SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.
SECOND SYSTEM IS NEXT WEEK, DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. A LARGER
SCALE POSITIVE TILT TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP EITHER OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL. JUST A MATTER OF TIMING AT THIS POINT.
WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY LOOKS DRY, WITH A WARMING TREND.
MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE AND WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, BUT THERE WILL
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWERING OF CLOUDINESS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON VSBYS
IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
SE MISSOURI AND SW KENTUCKY IN THE 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 3K FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY
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