100
FXUS63 KPAH 260545
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD WARMTH IS LIKELY TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY A 60-80% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM UP NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR, BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 30 TO 35 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 40-60% CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 32
DEGREES SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
- AFTER THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ANOTHER WARMING
TREND COMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF OUR AREA HAS AT LEAST
A 50% CHANCE AT HIGHS REACHING 80 DEGREES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE PROVIDING SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS CURRENTLY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA AND REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
HOWEVER, PARTS OF THE WABASH VALLEY AND EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE MAY GET
CLIPPED BY SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES EAST BY SUNRISE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S REMAIN ON TRACK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN A GOOD CHANCE AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN
THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AGAIN. A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD MIXING WITH
SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OUR CWA
UNTIL MIDNIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. BY THAT TIME, INSTABILITY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS, AND GUIDANCE IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO KEEP MUCH
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SO WHILE A
STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN OUR FAR NORTH INITIALLY, THE
SEVERE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW IN OUR CWA AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF US. SEVERAL CAMS REALLY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
APPRECIABLE QPF AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH DESPITE THE NBM SUGGESTING A 50-
80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THAT. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
0.25" REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO ANY THUNDERSTORM.
RAIN WILL DEPART FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-
LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTER
EARLY MORNING HIGHS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 30 TO 35 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT THEY WILL
BE TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE CHILLY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S, WITH ROUGHLY A 40-60% CHANCE AT DIPPING DOWN TO FREEZING OR
JUST BELOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION (PRIMARILY NORTH
OF ROUTE 13 IN SOUTHERN IL AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN AND FAR NORTHWEST
KY AND THEN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS). GIVEN THE RECENT
WARM WEATHER, VEGETATION IS NOW SUSCEPTIBLE SO WE MAY END UP NEEDING
HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ABOUT A 5 MPH WIND OR SO TO LARGELY PREVENT FROST THOUGH, AT LEAST
THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW.
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD BACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY. BY MONDAY, THERE IS ROUGHLY A 40-60% CHANCE AT
HIGHS REACHING 80 ACROSS OUR CWA AGAIN, AND THOSE PROBABILITIES RISE
INTO THE 70-80% RANGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SHOWER CHANCE LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST (KMVN-KEVV-KOWB). OTHERWISE
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TO DISPERSE BY TMRW MORNING AS SOUTH
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AND GET GUSTY AGAIN, ESP DURING THE PLANNING
PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 26:
PADUCAH, KY - 83 IN 2020
EVANSVILLE, IN - 81 IN 2020
CAPE GIRARDEAU, MO - 82 IN 2007
POPLAR BLUFF, MO - 83 IN 1956
CARBONDALE, IL - 88 IN 1910
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DH
CLIMATE...SP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page