466
FXUS63 KPAH 280505
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1205 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SEMO
(30-40%).
- AFTER TODAY HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM TUE JUL 28 2026
A VERY LARGE AND STRONG MONSOON RIDGE JUMPS OUT AT YOU AS SOON
AS YOU OPEN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. %00MB HEIGHTS ARE
>596 DM OVER TX/NM AND OVER 590 DM OVER THE QUAD STATE WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. "RIDGE RUNNER" CONVECTION IS SPIRALING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING OUT THE ACTIVITY/WAVE OVER KS/NE PUTS IT
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GIVE
US AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WITH WIDESPREAD 80+
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING. WITH SKIES LARGELY CLEARING BEHIND THE
LAST WAVE OF CONVECTION ANOTHER DAY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT APPEARS
LIKELY AND KEPT THE WARNING/ADVISORY LARGELY AS IS SAVE ADDING
TWO KENTUCKY PENNYRILE COUNTIES.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS LIKELY TO
PUSH A MODEST FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS NEW AIRMASS SHOULD SEE
DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S, WHICH IS PLENTY HOT BUT MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
THROUGH THE WEEK THE MONSOON RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLOPS IN OVER THE TOP AND INTO THE AREA.
GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE WAY THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES BRINGING SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY BUT THE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY IS POOR AND THIS
EVOLUTION LOOKS LIKE IT COULD EVOLVE MORE FROM A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE INTO MORE OF A LUMBERING CLOSED OFF LOW AND I WOULD
NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST PICTURE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
DECAYING -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND
15 KTS AT OUR NORTHEAST TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. PRIMARY
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOMORROW, MAINLY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF
KCGI.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-082-083-
086-087.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ080-081-084-
085-088>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ014>016-018>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>013-017.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...SP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page