573
FXUS63 KPAH 011807
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
107 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
(20-30% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT IT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MO.
- DRIER AIR WITH LOWER HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 50S)
WORKS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A LINGERING
INFLUENCE CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
- WHILE RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
GREATER CHANCES (40-60%) HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO SPIKE UPWARDS AGAIN WITH A 70-80%
CHANCE AT DEW POINTS EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
IN THE WAKE OF A MORNING MCS, OUR REGION IS WELL WORKED OVER AND
SEEMS UNLIKELY TO RECOVER ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CU FIELD
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO INTO NORTHEAST AR, WHICH IS WHERE CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO GENERATE AND GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR DEPICT THIS WELL. THIS CORRIDOR IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL IL/IN.
ANY CONVECTION UP THAT WAY LIKELY WOULDN'T BE SEVERE THOUGH.
IF ANY CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD
LIKELY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET OR SO, LEAVING BEHIND A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FILTER IN LOWER HUMIDITY WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S ON TUESDAY. HECK, LREF GUIDANCE EVEN
HAS ROUGHLY A 50-70% CHANCE AT DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW 50 IN THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE REGION! THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (DEW POINTS AROUND 60 AGAIN) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
KICKS BACK IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY LIKELY
STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER, WE MIGHT SEE A GLANCING BLOW
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (20-30% RAIN
CHANCES RETURN). AT THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE
SURGING BACK TOWARDS OUR AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
INDUCE SOME CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY THOUGH AS THE MAIN WAVE GETS CLOSER. DEW
POINTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 70 DEGREES AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LREF PROBABILITIES EVEN HAVE A 40% CHANCE AT REACHING 75
DEGREES BY NEXT MON/TUES. THUS THIS WILL KEEP PRETTY DECENT RAIN
CHANCES IN PLACE AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND MAKES PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
MORNING CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE REGION, ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SPINNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SCT-BKN
LOW MVFR CIGS (EVEN BRIEFLY IFR), WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE ISN'T HANDLING THIS WELL SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. FOR NOW THINK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TERMINALS.
WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page