077
FXUS63 KPAH 270737
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
COOL, DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION, WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A STEADY FLOW
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE TODAY. THIS MAY
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES AT A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY.
OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PENNYRILE, MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND STRONG MIXING MAY TAKE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO 30% OR LESS. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT, SO THERE SHOULD BE NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION TUESDAY
AND MODEST SOUTH WINDS WILL KICK IN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NORMAL TUESDAY AND
THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE 00Z GEFS HAS A 50-90%
CHANCE OF REACHING 90 OVER MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE NBM IS
A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE, IN THE 10-50% RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE
LAGGING THE HEAT A BIT, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS TO DELAY THE ONSET
OF RAIN CHANCES TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, OR
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE INITIAL CHANCES WILL STILL BE
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SLOWER
ARRIVAL CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE WITH THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
BEING POSITIVELY-TILTED. IN FACT, MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LETS
THE UPPER LOW SIT OVER TEXAS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BRINGS
IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE QUAD STATE NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPECT THE ONSET OF POPS TO TREND LATER WITH FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES.
THE NBM HAS POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING EVERY
PERIOD THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE, IF ANY
INSTABILITY UNTIL THE UPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, SO QPF
SHOULD BE LIGHT UNTIL THEN. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER, IF NOT
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT IT WILL
BRING A HEALTHY SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST RIGHT THROUGH THE QUAD
STATE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. THAT SAID THE NBM'S QPF AVERAGING AROUND 3" OVER THE
ENTIRE QUAD STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY IS WAY
OVERDONE IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION AND USHER IN MORE COOL AIR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST.
CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 TO
7 KTS TOMORROW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP
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