752
FXUS63 KPAH 021805
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
105 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE BUT LIGHT
RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. LATE NEXT WEEK THE PROBABILITIES ARE CLIMBING FOR ABOVE
NORMAL (BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HOT) TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING PRODUCED BETWEEN
A HALF INCH NEAR I-64 TO HOT SPOTS OVER 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN IS CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BEHIND IT.
THE SURFACE FRONT RUNS FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO ABOUT
MADISONVILLE, KY AT 1PM AND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW MARCH SOUTH.
OVERRUNNING ASCENT ABOVE THE COLD FRONT IS REDEVELOPING CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THAT REDEVELOPMENT
COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. SUBTLE ASCENT ABOVE
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR TWO AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN GRUNGY LOW CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
ANOTHER LITTLE SHOT OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES
MONDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND SHIFTS OUR FLOW A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THE TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK IS UPWARD AND THE
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS GOING BACK ABOVE 80 DEGREES IS ABOVE 50%
AND CLIMBING. OVERALL CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REFORM
JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR LEADING TO 800-1200 FOOT
CEILINGS SOUTH OF I-64 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH CIGS
POSSIBLY DETERIORATING EVEN AS THE IFR VISIBILITY FROM RAINFALL
MOVES TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO DEPART WITH
MVFR CIGS REASONABLE TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE
A SHARP GRADIENT OF THE GRUNGY LOW CLOUD AND LIKELY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THAT BISECTS THE AREA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page