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FXUS63 KPAH 142201
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
401 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT, THEN THE WARM UP WILL
COMMENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY WHEN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE
EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN, AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY, THEN IT'S BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE WIND CHILL READINGS IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, BUT NOT TO THE -5 THRESHOLD TO CONTINUE THE
COLD ADVISORY, SO WE LET THAT EXPIRE AT 18Z. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE QUAD STATE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW THE NBM LOWS
IN THIS FORECAST, AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO, SOME LOCATIONS
MAY DROP TO NEAR ZERO, ESPECIALLY OVER THE REMAINING SNOW COVER
OF NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SUNRISE, AND THAT WILL
CREATE A WIND CHILL AGAIN FOR THE MORNING BUS RUN. MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS OF ZERO TO MINUS 4 ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WE WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE COLD IN OUR MESSAGING AND THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
SINCE IT WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING
CONCERN.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY MONDAY, WHILE
THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AND BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SUSTAINED WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF END TO THE WARMTH, AS HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MOST OF
THE QUAD STATE. HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS RETURN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY, A STORM SYSTEM WILL EMERGE ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND THAT WILL INDUCE HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE QUAD STATE.
AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. MUCH OF THE REGION
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THE GULF WILL BE
SERIOUSLY SCOURED OUT BY THIS WEEKEND'S ARCTIC COLD FRONT, SO
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MEAGER. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING THAT 100-200J/KG OF MUCAPE COULD DEVELOP AND SUPPORT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY THUNDER COULD
LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR
WILL COME IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AND DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES OUT, IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE. THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST INDICATES
THAT THIS RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE LIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
GETTING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, AS THAT DISTURBANCE
AMPLIFIES, IT COULD END UP SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OVER THE FLIGHT
TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PACKAGE, SO GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE DIMINISHING, WITH WINDS SOON TO FOLLOW TOWARD CALM.
THEN OVER THE BACK HALF OF THE PACKAGE, AS THE ANTICYLCONE
SHIFTS TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO MID APPALACHIA, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP AND INCLUDE SOME
GUSTINESS BY LATE MORNING AND ON INTO/THRU THE BULK OF THE
PLANNING HOURS PHASE OF THE FORECAST, BEFORE DIMINISHING CLOSE
TO THE EFFECTIVE END TIME OF THE PACKAGE. ALL TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW 100-300 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS BELOW
500 MB, SO ANY BASES WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH LEVELED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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