648
FXUS63 KPAH 170559
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1259 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AS NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES, WITH BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS FROM 14 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND DOWNWARD MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY, BUT THE REAL BREAK IN THE
HEAT ARRIVES TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO 90 DEGREES.
- A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-40% CHANCES) ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.
- 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES, AND
LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MIDDLE 70S. THESE VALUES ARE 14 TO
NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SITTING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH FRIDAY TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE MODEL BLEND
PRODUCES 20-40% CHANCES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY START BREAKING DOWN AS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE MODEL BLEND SPREADS 30-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, WITH 20-30% CHANCES CONTINUING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z, MAINLY AT KCGI/KPAH. OUTSIDE
OF THIS, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CALM TO
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5-8KTS AFTER
13Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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