760
FXUS63 KPAH 062134
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
434 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
70-90% CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, SLOWLY ENDING WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, MOVING OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA (FA) MONDAY. 20-30%
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THIS EVENING, WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND SLOWLY SPREADING EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 70-90% ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FA
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH AREAS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRY BY TUESDAY EVENING, AND THE REST OF
OUR AREA DRY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH
RANGE, WITH MOST OF THIS RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF SEASON NORMALS. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. DEW POINTS BY MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S,
REMAINING AT THOSE READINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90 INTO THE LOWER
90S, AND COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES, AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 105 DEGREES.
MODELS SHOW A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AFFECTING OUR REGION. THERE ARE
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, WITH SOME
BRINGING IT INTO OUR REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND
OTHERS AS LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ANY LITTLE DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD SET OFF
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION, AND THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES
20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
WE GO FORWARD, MODELS WILL GET BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHEN WE COULD SEE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE KCGI/KPAH VICINITY JUST PRIOR TO
ISSUANCE TIME SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR DISSIPATING TREND, LEAVING
MID-UPPER VFR BASES FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT. PCPN CHANCES
PICK UP WITH MORE EARNEST TMRW, AS A WAVE OF VORT ENERGY TIED TO
THE BROADER TROF TO THE WEST LIFTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IT
WILL INTRODUCE RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS AS IT AGITATES THE
WARM/SOUPY AIR MASS BETTER ESTABLISHED AREA-WIDE BY THEN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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