061
FXUS63 KPAH 261721
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN CHECK.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE SHUNTED WELL TO THE EAST BY THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALLOW REMNANTS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO TO EVENTUALLY STREAM OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH THE ASSOCIATED QPF PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS, BUT THERE WILL BE A DECENT (~50%) CHANCE OF SOME RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE. THE BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH FOR NOW BODES WELL FOR
HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANT, THE BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE COULD GET HUNG UP
SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS
FOR THE QUAD STATE. LAST NIGHT'S ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATED THAT
MUCH OF THE REGION WOULD SEE UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL,
BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF EVEN AN INCH WERE VIRTUALLY NIL. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AND THE NBM HAS REMOVED
ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. THE ONE CONCERN IS
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (~200% OF NORMAL), WHICH
COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A HEAVIER RAINFALL EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OR THUNDER POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, BUT LOWS WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE CLOUD COVER.
THERE ARE SIGNS OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION AS
EARLY AS NEXT MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS QUITE
LOW THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE NBM DOES HAVE
20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS LINGERING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A REPEAT OF EARLY MORNING SHALLOW FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE UP AT KMVN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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