397
FXUS63 KPAH 291058
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO A 70-90% CHANCE OF A HEATWAVE
IMPACTING THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A 15-30%
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING A RETURN
ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BRING LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT BEST
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A STRONG 594 DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. WEAK FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL
INHIBIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AGAIN TODAY DUE TO A DEEP DRY LAYER
ABOVE 800 MB. AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS EAST
ON SUNDAY, A MODEST INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURS THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. DESPITE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 70
DEGREES, SUPPORTING DAILY NBM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE DRY
HEAT YIELDS A 70-90% CHANCE ON THE LREF OF HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THAT WILL CAUSE A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK.
THERE ARE SIGNS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AND MIGRATE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT TO THE NORTH. INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES BECOMES MORE PROBABLE AND MAY BRING SOME LIMITED
RELIEF; HOWEVER, NBM POPS ONLY PEAK AT A 15-30% CHANCE AT BEST ON
FRIDAY TO END THE WEEK. MODEL ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE ENS ARE
MORE OPTIMISTIC IN SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IMPACTING MAINLY KCGI THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT WITH SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TURN CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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