897
FXUS63 KPAH 191106
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
506 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH ONLY
A 10-30% CHANCE OF REACHING 40 DEGREES NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CARBONDALE, IL TO HOPKINSVILLE, KY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF REACHING 65 DEGREES BY
CHRISTMAS DAY.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF DAILY SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS A SUB 980 MB SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY INTO QUEBEC WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES IN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH PROBABILITIES DROPPING TO ONLY 10-30%
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE, IL TO HOPKINSVILLE, KY.
MEANWHILE, ALL OF SEMO AND THE KY PURCHASE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR TO END THE WEEK.
THE COLD BLAST WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A 1024 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. A MORE ZONAL FLOW DUE TO HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY WITH A 20-40% PROBABILITY
OF REACHING 65 DEGREES. AS A MILD PACIFIC JET REGIME DOMINATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CONUS,
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH 15-17C BY CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN
THERE IS A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 65 DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 70S SNEAK INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
SEMO WITH THE ECMWF EFI RANGING FROM 0.8-0.9 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY THAT TYPICALLY CORRELATES TO TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVING.
AS MULTIPLE SUBTLE VORTS ROUND THE RIDGE, THERE REMAINS A DAILY 20-
40% CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. DESPITE THE SPORADIC RAIN CHANCES, THE MAIN
HEADLINE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MILD TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
MVFR TO LOW IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SCATTER
OUT LATER THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY TO A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WEST WINDS TURN LIGHT THIS EVENING OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page