207
FXUS63 KPAH 032258
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TONIGHT
TO AREAS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS NORTH OF ROUTE 13, SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.
- NUMEROUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH 80-100% CHANCES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
- CHANCES (20% NORTH TO 60-70% SOUTHEAST) OF SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDERS,
THEN SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER, WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE ONE TO ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH RANGE. CHANCES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE 60-80%, AND
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ARE 15-30%.
- LOW END CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
BRING 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA, NORTHWEST KENTUCKY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTH OF ROUTE 13, MAINLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY, AND WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LATE MONDAY, MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA. OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING, AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE PAH FORECAST AREA (FA) LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES IN THE
80-100% RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PAH FA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWER
CHANCES (20% NORTH TO 60-70% SOUTHEAST) WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
WITH A FEW STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDERS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WEST
KENTUCKY IN A MARGINAL RISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING, SO
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD, WITH AMOUNTS NOW FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE ONE INCH TO ONE
AND THREE QUARTER INCH RANGE. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. CHANCES OVERALL OF GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE AT 60-80%,
WITH CHANCES OF OVER 2 INCHES MOSTLY AROUND 25% OR LESS.
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF, POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY,
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET, THEN
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY, BRINGING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
OVERALL CHANCES FOR THESE TWO TIME PERIODS ARE 20 TO 30%, WITH
THE SUNDAY POTENTIAL LOOKING A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE RIGHT
NOW. WE WILL SEE HOW THE TIMING PANS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AFTER THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY,
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH
READINGS BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SLOW MINOR WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY, WITH NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED SHRA
AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
LLWS OVERNIGHT, AS WE LOSE THE SURFACE GUSTS THIS EVENING AND
2KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AS MIXING
RETURNS TOMORROW MORNING, SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO 15-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-28 KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRIMARILY WILL JUST HAVE SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...SP
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