570
FXUS63 KPAH 251141
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEEK ENDING WARMUP WILL SEE DAILY STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE QUAD STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. FLOW OFF THE GULF
WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND ON SOLID
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE QUAD STATE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD RACE WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
FORCING/FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING
TREND AS IT REACHES THE QUAD STATE AREA. IN FACT, MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THIS WITH Q-CONV DROPPING QUICKLY AS THE SHOWERS/STORMS
REACH INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND ACTUALLY PRODUCES ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE QUAD STATE,
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF SEMO. STILL NOT THAT GREAT THOUGH,
MODELS PAINTING OUT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
CWA (PORTIONS OF SEMO/SOUTHERN IL) ARE STILL IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WITH GENERAL THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AGAIN, NOT A GREAT POSSIBILITY OF STORMS
REMAINING STRONG/SEVERE OR EVEN HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH INTO
OUR CWA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TRACK IS
STILL FAVORED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS A LINE OF STORMS TRAVERSE THE
AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO AN INCREASED
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER, INSTABILITY DOESN'T
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME, BUT DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD
STATE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN, CURRENT THINKING IS A DAMAGING WIND RISK, BUT DETAILS ARE A
LITTLE MURKY AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES, WHICH IS AROUND 200% OF
NORMAL. THE LINE SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG, SO OVERALL FLOODING THREAT
MAY BE MITIGATED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA!
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES TO SOME EXTENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY DROP INTO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN STORMS IN PLACE. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HAS FLIP-FLOPPED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS BETWEEN RIDGING TO ZONAL TO EVEN A TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY AT KCGI/KPAH. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC/RST
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