601
FXUS63 KPAH 171117
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
617 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AMID A CLEAR AND COLD
NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
- A STABLE AND DRY PATTERN THEN LOCKS IN FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
DAYS ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ARE SHARPLY COOLER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
QUAD-STATE. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE. A 1040MB
SURFACE RIDGE SITS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH PLANS OF SITTING
OVERTOP OF THIS REGION TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF DRIER AIR BEING
PUSHED IN WITH THIS RIDGE, IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AMID DEEP LAYER RIDGING, AND CALM WINDS UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS VERY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FROST STILL LOOKS LIKELY ENOUGH AREA-WIDE TO GO WITH
AN ADVISORY. SOME AREAS PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION COULD VERY WELL DROP TO FREEZING AS THINGS BOTTOM OUT.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GETS BLOCKED
UP FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. WITH
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS LEADING TO SURFACE RIDGING FOCUSED JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS AMID A
STABLE/SETTLED PATTERN. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE PROJECTED, WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH
SEASONAL NORMS.
A FEW PACIFIC TROUGHS WILL TAKE A SHOT AT DISLODGING THE RIDGING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT IN MOST ALL GUIDANCE THEY ARE
UNSUCCESSFUL AND SAIL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION KEEPING
THE PATTERN IN PLACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE
EASING LATER TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CDT /10 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
CDT /9 AM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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