272
FXUS63 KPAH 171824
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
124 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT DUSTING CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA (30-50%
CHANCE OF 0.1").
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 40-70%
CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING 80 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE LATER SUNDAY, BUT CURRENTLY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURN TO THE 50S
NEXT MONDAY, BUT THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
40S ACROSS OUR NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION WILL SHIFT
EAST TAKING THE BITTER COLD AIR WITH IT. HOWEVER, THERE IS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT MIGRATES
ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH IT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WHICH GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD LARGELY END
UP BEING SNOW. CAMS ARE STRUGGLING TO GENERATE MUCH MEASURABLE QPF,
BUT THE LREF MAINTAINS ABOUT A 30-50% CHANCE AT A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT MAY END UP BEING THIS
EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 60S
LIKELY (70-95% CHANCE) ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE FLOW ALOFT LARGELY REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUT THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS REACH BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND THERE IS EVEN A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE
AT THE OZARK FOOTHILLS REACHING 80. THE WARMTH CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-70% CHANCE AT REACHING 80
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THIS ONE LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND MODELS
ARE REALLY STRUGGLING TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH IT.
FOR NOW WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST, BUT THE LREF IS SPITTING OUT ABOUT A
20-30% CHANCE AT A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST 20-25 DEGREES COOLER NEXT MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, BUT NOTICED THE NBM
EVEN GIVES A 20-30% CHANCE AT HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING,
THERE IS ROUGHLY A 20-30% CHANCE THAT AREAS NEAR I-64 OBSERVE
FREEZING TEMPS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
MID CLOUD (5-8KFT BASES) WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME -SN IS POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW REGARDING COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER
THIS EVENING. THEY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
THEY TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR A
BIT HIGHER POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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