087
FXUS63 KPAH 241128
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
528 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020
COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA. WE'LL BREAK IT DOWN BY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MORNING...A MOSTLY SOLID SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE AVERAGED A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. WHILE RADAR DOES SHOW POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN OVER NE ARKANSAS MOVING TOWARDS SE MISSOURI,
THINKING OVERALL IS THAT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE TOO LOW TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND MAYBE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
IN SE MISSOURI, FAR SW ILLINOIS, AND FAR W KENTUCKY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL DRYNESS WORKS
NORTH INTO THAT AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50
NEAR EVV TO THE UPPER 50S AT POF.
THINGS GET INTERESTING BY MID- AND LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO PASS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THAT REGION. MODEST
ADVECTION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE (TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S) COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM, WILL YIELD ROUGHLY 250-750
J/KG OF SURFACED-BASED INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG WITH 60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
ABOUT 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT, CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY
FROM 21Z-0Z), WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL,
A DAMAGING WIND GUST, AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NEARBY, COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.
THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA HAS A SIMILAR IDEA. ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY EVENING AT THE LATEST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AFTER A QUIET BUT CLOUDY TUESDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, A SECOND QUICK- MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD YIELD A FEW RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY, BUT AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY, WE COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO DESCEND OUR WAY,
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S, ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z GUIDANCE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE CONSENSUS FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS NOT THAT GREAT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES LIKELY TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. THE
00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SURFACE
REFLECTIONS AND SOME LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
IMPULSES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THAT IS THE ONE PERIOD AND
LOCATION THAT HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS
DRY, BUT IMPULSES COULD IMPACT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA
ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST OR WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE,
SO SNOW WILL BE A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT THERE
INTO NEXT MONDAY, WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KICK OUT
AN INITIAL IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH TOWARD OUR REGION,
EFFECTIVELY FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND PUTTING US INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. WITH DECENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION,
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
LOOKING INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT OVER OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE
COLDEST AIR EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH, AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE READINGS UP TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/FOG AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD FLS BEHIND
THE MORNING WAVE OF RAIN, SO NOT EXPECTED ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS. ADDED VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AT KCGI WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AT 9-12 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
SHORT TERM...DWS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
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