353
FXUS63 KPAH 112333
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
633 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE QUAD STATE REGION, AND
THE REMAINING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY WITH IT. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S! THE
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 45 DEGREES MONDAY IS LESS THAN 30% OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE LOWS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
UPDATED THE KEY MESSAGES SINCE AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL HAS
NOW ENDED AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TRENDING LIGHTER WITH EARLY
EVENING GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE MUCH THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE AS RESULT OF EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION AND A COMPLEX PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE COMPLEX TO OUR
SOUTH HAS EVEN RESULTED IN A WAKE LOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
OCCURRING. THIS IS WHY WE ENDED UP EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY TO
COVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE RAPIDLY BLOSSOMED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA
FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE ISN'T OVERLY UNSTABLE
THOUGH, SO SEVERE PROSPECTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE RATHER LOW.
CERTAINLY MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO, SO SOMETHING TO STILL CLOSELY MONITOR
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT SHOULD EXIT OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY 21Z OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH 5 PM
READINGS LIKELY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA HAS A DECENT CHANCE (40-60%) TO FALL TO
FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. WE WILL MODERATE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH 70S
ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
AFTER A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ACHIEVING 500 J/KG OF CAPE IS QUITE
LOW (LESS THAN 20%) AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST LREF AND NBM DATA.
SEEMS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ISN'T NEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AHEAD
OF THAT FRONT COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT SITUATION AS DEW POINTS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S. PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR THOUGH, SO COULD BE A
CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO FOR OUR CWA. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD FRONT COULD BE A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG IT.
THE CSU-MLP HAS 5% SEVERE PROBS OVER MOST OF OUR AREA AND EVEN A 15%
IN PART OF THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KENTUCKY. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME, IT'S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE REALLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A LITTLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE IT
COMPLETELY MOVES OUT. THE NBM DOES GENERATE ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE OF
A RECEIVING A LIGHT DUSTING WITH IT.
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION HAS A 50-70% CHANCE THAT HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS. FORTUNATELY THE COLD SNAP LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNS BY MID WEEK AND WE MAY
EVEN GO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS EVENING, WITH THUNDER A NON-FACTOR OVER THE QUAD STATE.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS REMAIN EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT WILL TREND LIGHTER INTO THE NIGHT. VSBY DROPS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH REMAINING SHOWERS BUT OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATE
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH 5KT
WINDS SHIFTING COUNTERCLOCKWISE TOWARDS SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...ATL
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