348
FXUS63 KPAH 200842
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
242 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL OFFER A REBOUND OF MILDER TEMPERATURES BEFORE A
REINFORCING COLD BLAST SUNDAY.
- THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WARMUP ENSUES THEREAFTER, REACHING THE 60S
BY TUESDAY, WHICH CARRIES ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
- THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SOUTHERLY FLOW ARRIVES TO THE
QUAD STATE, WITH WINDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASING TREND AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH TODAY. A COLD FRONT, CONNECTING SYSTEMS IN
ONTARIO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH GULF
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE RAIN IN TENNESSEE.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS OUR DRIEST WEATHER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY.
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK AHEAD, A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY, WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. EARLY WEEK GULF MOISTURE LIFTS TOWARDS
THE AREA, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. THERE'S A LITTLE LESS THUNDER
POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE BUT NOT
WEAK ENOUGH TO REMOVE ENTIRELY. QPF IS TRIVIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
RECENT CHRISTMAS DAYS HAVE TENDED TO HAVE EXTREME TEMPERATURES
(THE LAST 9 YEARS HAVE INCLUDED 4 OF THE 6 WARMEST AND 2 OF THE
5 COLDEST CHRISTMAS DAYS AT PADUCAH), AND THIS YEAR APPEARS TO
BE NO EXCEPTION. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE 2021 RECORD HIGHS, BUT A
BUNCH OF 2ND PLACE FINISHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIMITED CHRISTMAS EVE TO THE EAST AND DROP OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY. A CANADIAN SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ALONG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROXIMATELY EARLY WEEKEND, WHILE A CLOSED
LOW OVER CALIFORNIA COULD BE A FACTOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WITH LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED AND GUSTS BY THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. BEFORE THE ONSET OF GUSTS, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FROM ROUGHLY 12-18Z. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH INSTANCES OF SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...
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