119
FXUS63 KPAH 112312
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEADLINE HEAT CONTINUES THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STIFLING HOT AND HUMID RIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND;
ADDITIONAL OR EXTENDED HEAT HEADLINES MAY BECOME WARRANTED.
- A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS RETURNS BY THIS EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF A STRONG OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM IS WEDNESDAY
EVENING; DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM
HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR IA/IL SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DAILY STORM CHANCES THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, AN UP TO 12C H7 CAP KEEPS STORM
CHANCES ISOLATED HERE, AT BEST, AS A FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY BLOWS
UP AN MCS-LIKE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION ON ITS TRACK THAT IS DISPLACED
WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE EFFECT THIS HAS ON THE
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IS TO SHIFT IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD
OVER TIME, SO THAT TMRW'S SIMILAR WAVE OF ENERGY THAT TRACKS
SIMILARLY THEN SHOOTS BETTER POPS/SVR RISK INTO AND ACROSS OUR
FA. IT WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE BOUNDARY'S ULTIMATE PLACEMENT, AND
WAR AGAINST THE STILL CAPPED MID LEVELS, BUT CLIMBING BULK
SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE'S
PUNCH THIS DIRECTION WILL HAVE THE SUPER-RICH/STEEP GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE TO TAP, WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THE MAIN ANTICIPATED
SEVERE HAZARD LATE WEDNESDAY PM/EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT;
AN ISOLATED TOR (2% RISK) TAPPING THE 200-400 M2/S2 SRH MODELED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PW'S WILL OF COURSE
PROVIDE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY, GIVEN 2 DAYS WORTH OF
BOUNDARY ADJUSTMENT, BUT GENERALLY, WE WARM SECTOR AGAIN AND
CHANCES SHIFT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CAPPING
OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS THE BROAD, UPPER HIGH DOMES US AGAIN. WE
ARE TALKING ADDITIONAL OR EXTENDED HEAT HEADLINES THAT MAY RUN
THRU THE WEEKEND EVENTUALLY, BUT THUS FAR THIS EARLY,
COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS APPEAR CENTERED ON A STEADY-AS-SHE GOES
PERSISTENCE WITH THE HEADLINE RUNNING THRU THURSDAY AND
REVISITED LATER FOR HEADLINE TIMING AND SPACIAL ADJUSTMENT
CONSIDERATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FORECAST SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF FEW-
SCT LOW VFR BASES THAT ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, BENEATH SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL BASES THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
NEAR VICINITY UPSTREAM CONVECTION; CONVECTIVE CHANCES DO APPEAR
TO BE LOW ENOUGH AT THE TERMINALS TO PRECLUDE FROM THIS
FORECAST, BUT WILL HEIGHTEN TMRW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FOCUSING BOUNDARY ADJUSTS ITS POSITIONING NEARER OUR TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PASS THROUGH
EVV AND OWB IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR EVV AND OWB, OTHER SITES SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN COME
DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW. EXPECT ANOTHER DIURNAL CU DECK TO SET UP TOMORROW
AGAIN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-081>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ080.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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