498
FXUS63 KPAH 311010
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A PROLONGED
HEATWAVE. DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100-106 ARE EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT MAY PROVIDE
LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
A PROLONGED HEATWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH A 594
DM RIDGE NOW IN CONTROL. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS LEVELING OFF AROUND 19-22C, MAXTS ARE LESS LIKELY
TO OVERACHIEVE WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER NO LONGER PRESENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AFTER BLENDING NBM TEMPS WITH CONS MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS, DAILY HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE DRY HEAT
TRANSLATES TO DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100-106;
HOWEVER, TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO 100. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, COLLABORATED WITH WFO LSX/SGF TO REPLACE
THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH WITH A HEAT ADVISORY THAT NOW RUNS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY A TARGETED
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK, BUT FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO
ONLY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS AT BEST WHERE HIGHS NEAR 100
DEGREES ARE PROGGED. NBM MAY ALSO BE OVERDOING NIGHTTIME LOWS
THAT ARE BEING FACTORED INTO THE HEAT RISK, WITH EXTREME LEVELS
CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE HEAT RISK ALSO
DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE RECENT HEATWAVES WE HAVE
HAD THIS SUMMER WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
BY FRIDAY, CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
RIDGE TO BREAKDOWN FASTER, ALLOWING FOR A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE FA. WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER IN
BRINGING A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THAT STALLS IN THE
VICINITY ON SATURDAY, THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY
THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING MODELED WELL BY THE NBM. AS A
RESULT, ONLY 20% POPS ARE PROGGED FOR EACH DAY. GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS AND INCREASING ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, WILL MESSAGE A
30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THAT MAY ALSO HELP TO BRING SOME LIMITED
RELIEF FROM THE HEATWAVE. LOCALLY UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HIGHS
OVER NEXT WEEKEND TREND INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FALLING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
A CALM START TO THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO W-SW WINDS BETWEEN
6-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 15-18 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MIXING. FEW CU AROUND 6 KFT AGL WILL
ALSO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. WINDS AFTER SUNSET WILL TURN
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 3 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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