140
FXUS63 KPAH 232347
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
547 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
SNOWFALL MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE TRAVEL
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH AN 85+% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD-STATE.
PROBABILITIES ARE NOW 90+% FOR EXCEEDING 8 INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG AN AXIS BETWEEN POPULAR BLUFF AND EVANSVILLE. A WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP GRADIENT WITH REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS. THERE
IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF ICE ACCRETION EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN
INCH, WHICH WOULD FALL ON TOP OF THE PRECEDING SNOW/SLEET.
- PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF DANGEROUS
COLD WIND CHILLS BEGINS THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ALL OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THAT COVERS THIS EVENING
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
MULTIPLE MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN WITH THE WEEKEND WINTER
STORM PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION, ALONG WITH
MIXING OF SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE TREACHEROUS (A WINTER STORM WARNING
COVERS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE), AND EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND ENTIRE WEEK AHEAD. MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE QUAD STATE
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN, BUT STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS,
IS NOW FUNNELING A STEADY STREAM OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE, WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -1 AND -12 TONIGHT, PROMPTING A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL STRIKE THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR GENERATIONAL TO RECORD SNOWFALL
TOTALS, ALONG WITH SOME MIXING OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM IS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO
THE METROPOLITAN REGION, PLACING THE QUAD STATE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING IN SOUTH
TEXAS, EVENTUALLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TENNESSEE
SUNDAY. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AROUND 700MB WILL PROVIDE A
WARM NOSE OVER VERY DRY AND COLD INITIAL SURFACE CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION ENTERS SEMO LATE TONIGHT, WITH MEASURABLE SNOW
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND SUNRISE. DRY SURFACE
LEVELS, WITH DEW POINTS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS MUCH OF SEMO, WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN AND CAN LIMIT EARLY ACCUMULATION.
DURING THE DAY, THE SURFACE LAYER MOISTENS AND SNOWFALL PICKS UP
IN EARNEST, FIRST IN SEMO AND THEN LATER IN THE MORNING FURTHER
NORTHEAST. THE WARM NOSE BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY BETWEEN
700-850MB, BUT GRAND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY NO
MEMBERS, EVEN AT SOUTHEASTERN SITES, WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE 6PM. AS SUCH, SLEET POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IS
RELEGATED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS (FROM
AROUND NEW MADRID TO HOPKINSVILLE). SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THE
DAY FROM THE FIRST ROUND ADD UP TO AROUND 3-6 INCHES WITH LOWER
TOTALS IN THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST (THE LATTER DUE
TO SOME POTENTIAL SLEET MIXING AND LOWER SLRS).
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD
STATE) SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A GREATER PROPORTION OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RISING ABOVE 0C ALOFT IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE QUAD STATE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE SHARE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING FREEZING RAIN
HAS DROPPED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH SNOW/SLEET BECOMING MORE
LIKELY AS THE BOOTHEEL TO PENNYRILE MIX OVERNIGHT.
THE SECOND WAVE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COMES FROM THE
NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TEXAS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
THE QUAD STATE NEAR THE LEFT-EXIT OF SOUTHERN JET AS IT ADVANCES
TOWARDS THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF THE MIDWESTERN STREAM, PROVIDING
GREATER LIFT. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL PUSHES FURTHER
NORTH SUNDAY WITH ROUND TWO. THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD
SET UP IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE WITH 5-7 INCHES OF
SNOW. SLEET MIXING ADVANCES NORTH TO A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY
DONIPHAN TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THERE'S PRETTY STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST BRIEF SLEET MIXING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WARM NOSE WARMING AND SLEET PRODUCTION.
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN PLACES SUCH AS FORT CAMPBELL, KY,
WITH LIMITED NORTHWARD. ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES COOL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,
LEADING TO A TRANSITION BACK FROM SLEET TO SNOW AT THE END OF
THE EVENT.
TO SUM UP THE WINTER STORM, FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF A LINE FROM
THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDED THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW WITH VERY LIMITED SLEET MIXING
POTENTIAL (MAINLY OHIO RIVER), WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-13
INCHES. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST LIKE MOUNT VERNON,
IL COULD SEE A BIT LESS SNOW IF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. A LINE FROM AROUND POPLAR BLUFF THROUGH
PADUCAH TO OWENSBORO IS LIKELY TO SEE AROUND 6-11 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH SOME MIXING OF SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
KEEPING TOTALS SLIGHTLY LOWER. FURTHER SOUTHEAST FROM THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO GREENVILLE, AND ESPECIALLY IN
HOPKINSVILLE/FORT CAMPBELL, GREATER MIXING OF SLEET (SLEET ON
TOP OF SNOW) WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS MORE IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ON TOP WHICH, IF IT LINES
UP WITH HIGHER END ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE.
EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOW THIS WINTER STORM, WITH THE
SNOWPACK PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING (WHICH MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATED IN SOME MODELS). SATURDAY NIGHT WIND CHILLS OF
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT DRIVE LOWS TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 0 AND EARLY MONDAY WIND CHILLS
AROUND EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT, SIMILARLY LOW WIND CHILLS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BLENDED IN NBM50TH
PERCENTILE TO LOWER THE DETERMINISTIC NBM INITIALIZATION SOME
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. STRONG TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FOR PRECIP LOCALLY, ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING COMES
FROM THIS, WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
OZARKS MAY BARELY REACH FREEZING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRETY OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION, GENERALLY AFTER 12Z AT THE TAF SITES. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS EVENING WHEN
15-25KTS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE GUSTINESS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /2 PM EST/ SATURDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ TONIGHT TO 6
PM CST /7 PM EST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST SATURDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page