922
FXUS63 KPAH 051128
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATTERN FAVORS NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED TODAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (40-60%).
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY (MID TO UPPER 80S). A BRIEF WARM-UP ON
THURSDAY MAY ALLOW HEAT INDEX READING TO EXCEED 100 BEFORE A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY USHERS IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH WILL KEEP OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE CHANCES MAY BE HIGHEST TODAY AND THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP GREATER MIDWEEK CHANCES IN PLACE). IF THE
TROUGH DOES PUSH FURTHER EAST THOUGH, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY END UP WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST.
WE MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY, ALTHOUGH
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD ONLY REACH UP AROUND 2000 J/KG (COMPARED TO THE
3000-3500 J/KG YESTERDAY). DCAPE VALUES MAY STILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG THOUGH SO COULD STILL GET SOME DOWNBURSTS WITH A FEW
STORMS. CAMS SUGGEST FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE, BUT THEY HAVE
STRUGGLED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GUT SAYS COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY BUT STILL MORE THAN WHAT MOST CAMS
SUGGEST.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE QUAD
STATE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS BY NEXT SUNDAY. THURSDAY
MIGHT END UP BEING THE ONLY DAY IN THE NEXT 7 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 100. A NICE CHANGE AFTER THE PROLONGED HEAT OF THE PAST
WEEK!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SOME EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING MAY IMPACT KEVV AND
POSSIBLY KOWB THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE, MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY, GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AOB 6 KTS. THERE
MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG LATE TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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