839
FXUS63 KPAH 210513
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A SMALL 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 15 TO 30% ARE FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NEAR TYPICAL LATE
AUGUST LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
FOLLOWING THURSDAY MORNING'S VERY ACTIVE WEATHER, MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE AUGUST TODAY.
HOWEVER, WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND RECENT RAIN IN SPOTS,
AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY, THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL SEE H5 RIDGING
BUILD AND EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CONUS.
THIS WILL PUT THE REGION INTO AN NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE H5 RIDGE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWER AND STORMS, BUT PREDICTABILITY IN THESE SETUPS CAN
BE QUITE LOW WHEN IT COMES TO DETAILS.
RIGHT NOW, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ABOUT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT POSSIBLY KICKING OF A FEW STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NBM IS PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME,
BUT SOME MODELS LIKE THE ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH, SO WANTED TO
CALL ATTENTION TO THIS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER,
BUT IT COULD POSSIBLY BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL COME FROM FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES MAY
DROP AS LOW AS A QUARTER TO HALF MILE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...KC
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