018
FXUS63 KPAH 042247
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
547 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DRY NW H5 FLOW AND SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER QUIET ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY, THE
AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY
IS THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS (25-40%) FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS (POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE?), AND IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE DETAILS ARE
VERY MUDDY AT THIS POINT, SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO AROUND 7-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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