188
FXUS63 KPAH 291043
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
543 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN
THE 80S ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL POSE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER RISK WITH RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 TO 30%. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THERE IS A 60 TO 70%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A 50
TO 60% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR THE START OF A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BACK NEAR 70 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, DEEP-LAYER
MIXING WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT IS BEING
PROGGED BY THE NBM. HAVE TRENDED DEWPOINTS LOWER THAT YIELDS RH
VALUES BETWEEN 25 TO 30% DURING PEAK HEATING. DUE TO THE ONGOING DRY
SOIL CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AS AN INCREASE
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35
MPH.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE
80S ON TUESDAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. NBM AGAIN IS LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING
AS THE EPS SUPPORTS A 60 TO 70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH ON
TUESDAY. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE FA.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE TRANSITION INTO A VERY
WET UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF BENEFICIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW PROGGED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE INITIAL ROUND PEAKS AT A 80% CHANCE OR BETTER MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY ON THE NBM AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WHILE THE 0Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER/LOWER WITH THE PROBABILITY OF PCPN.
500 TO 700 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PROGGED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, BUT
MEAGER SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LIMITED. THE AFORMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL INTERVALS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING,
THERE IS A 50 TO 60% CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY.
ONE FINAL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY THAT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. THE ECMWF/CMC
BOTH SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS A OPEN SHORTWAVE STRETCHED OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW THE DETAILS OF THE THERMODYNAMICS, BUT
THE KINEMATICS CERTAINLY LOOK MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION AS THE
NOSE OF A 500 MB JET MAX APPROACHES BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL FAVOR STRONGER LIFT. DESPITE
THE UNCERTAINTY, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CERTAINLY MORE IMPRESSIVE
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO MORE SEASONABLE BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS, GUSTS 20-25 KTS MIDDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO THICKEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH
SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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