244
FXUS63 KPAH 130818
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NUDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (50S) OVER
THE WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (60S)
THROUGH NEXT WEEK INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR 70S WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST 1" OF RAINFALL
THIS WEEKEND, AND A 15-60% CHANCE AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 2", WITH
THE LOWER TOTALS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE AND THE HIGHER TOTALS MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO OUR EAST WITH A RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE FRONT RANGE, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, HELPING
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A BAND OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS NEAR 30 THIS MORNING WARM UP
TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TODAY.
THE MAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE WEEKEND RAIN. AT THIS TIME
THERE'S TWO COMPONENTS TO OUR WEEKEND RAIN EVENT, BOTH PART OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN THE GREAT BASIN-ROCKIES (STILL NO
SNOW FOR SALT LAKE CITY, HOWEVER), WHILE THE OTHER IS OFF OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW THIS
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE SURGING NORTHEASTWARD AND THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT TAKES THE LEAD LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
KS/OK SATURDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. LAGGING JUST BEHIND
IT, THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM SINKS TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND DOES A BETTER JOB OF STRENGTHENING OVER TEXAS, WITH MODELS
SHIFTING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARDS THIS MORE ORGANIZED
CORE AND KEEPS THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OR DEEP
SOUTH SUNDAY. EVEN THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, WHICH HAD BEEN THE
NORTHERNMOST CONSISTENTLY, IS NOW FULLY ON BOARD WITH THIS
SOUTHERN TRACK.
RAIN ARRIVES TO SEMO LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL
LARGELY COME FROM GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE LEADING
INSTABILITY REGION (THE PACIFIC LOW) WHICH WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND GIVING WAY TO THE TRAILING DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. AS A RESULT, MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FIZZLE OUT IN THE NORTH WITH SOME
MODELS PRODUCING A SWATH OF 1+ INCH RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS EVEN
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF BETWEEN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE I-64
CORRIDOR. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE.
OVERALL, THERE ARE 50-85% ODDS OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN AND
15-60% ODDS OF 2+ INCHES (LOWEST ODDS NEAR EVANSVILLE/MOUNT
VERNON IL, HIGHEST ODDS NEAR POPLAR BLUFF). THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MAKE THUNDER VERY UNLIKELY EVEN
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES CONSIDERING THE COUPLE YEAR RETURN INTERVAL MOISTURE
LEVELS BUT, WITH ONGOING DROUGHT AND RAIN BEING SPREAD OUT OVER
24-36HRS, FLOODING POTENTIAL WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. RAINS
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DRY WEATHER MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY. THE NORTHERN LOW REACHING THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR THE QUAD STATE, WHILE THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW END
LATE WEEK POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISE TO THE 60S EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND PEAK AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS NEAR 30 THIS MORNING
TREND HIGHER AS MOISTURE MOVES IN, STAYING IN THE MID-40S
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRIEFLY LOWERING A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE RISING TO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS FURTHER TO OUR EAST, WINDS
BECOME SSE ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 6-9 KTS. SCT MID
AND HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY GIVE WAY TO MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP
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