296
FXUS63 KPAH 042344
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
544 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND, STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES CURRENTLY
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
VERY MILD (NEAR RECORD WARMTH) AND STORMY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN
ACTIVE W TO SW H5 ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, WITH A PARADE OF
DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ONGOING
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N
AND E OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION
WITH MORE SHEAR/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN MO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE E-NE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SPC STILL HAS MOST OF THE AREA
NEAR AND NW OF THE OHIO RIVER IN A SLIGHT RISK, DRIVEN BY HAIL
AND WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, MAINLY IN
SOUTHEAST MO OR SOUTHWEST IL.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW, SPC HAS NOT INTRODUCED A SEVERE RISK
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
GUSTY HAILERS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN WEST KY IF SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING MCS
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL
BE IN A WEAKENING MODE GIVEN THE TIME OF NIGHT OF THEIR ARRIVAL,
BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER, WHERE SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK.
WE WILL GET A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SINKS
SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WILL AGAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
SOARING TO NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS AGAIN. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY
MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO AND MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A RELATIVELY RARE SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 2 IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS, SO THE AREA OF CONCERN RIGHT NOW
IS RATHER SMALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HIGHER END
OUTCOMES ON THE TABLE, IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS.
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, THE
LATEST WPC QPF BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD 1.5-3.0" TOTALS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS, POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD OR RIVER FLOODING
RISKS GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN, BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL POP OUTSIDE OF THE TIMES HIGHLIGHTED AT EACH SITE; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS STEADIER RAIN
ARRIVES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>087.
MO...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ014-018-019.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...KC
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