427
FXUS63 KPAH 030542
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOR TOMORROW TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER AND PRECIP
LIGHTER AND LATER. IMPACTS (IF ANY) LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE RAIN MAY FALL ON SUB-FREEZING SURFACES
AMID ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
- WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, IT WON'T BE AS COLD AS WHAT WE'VE
EXPERIENCED LATELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 40S AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM IS ON A SYSTEM PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (CURRENTLY OVER MT/ND/SD)
WILL HELP SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. THE
TRENDS FOR PRECIP SEEM LOWER THAN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS, WITH
SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET TIMES AS WELL. WARMING ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RESULT IN
THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP SOUTH OF ABOUT MARION TO MADISONVILLE
FALLING AS PLAIN RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET MIXED
IN NORTH OF THERE. COLD ANTECEDENT GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME IMPACTS DESPITE ABOVE FREEZING AIR
TEMPERATURES, BUT THE RISK FOR THAT DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING GIVEN TODAY'S TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE DATA ON
ACTUAL SFC/SOIL TEMPERATURES. COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND WE DROP BACK CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND THEN EMERGES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS NEAR, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT THEN
WORKS TOWARDS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BACK CLOSER TO 40 FOR HIGHS BUT NOT PUTTING US BACK TOO DEEP
INTO THE ICEBOX.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. SOME VSBY DROPS ARE LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND LINGER AFTERWARDS. IFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING IN THE NORTH/WEST DURING THE EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...ATL
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