197
FXUS63 KPAH 252315
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
515 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS HIGH AND WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS RECORD
BREAKING HEATWAVE MAY BE FRIDAY, WHEN THERE IS A 70-95
PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE (15-30 PERCENT CHANCE)
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND WEST
KY. BRIEF CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY WEST) WILL LIKELY
BE REPLACED BY MORE CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 80 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
- A BRIEF BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IN FACT, THERE IS
ONLY ABOUT A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY!
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE DRIZZLE,
LOW CLOUDS, AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AT TIMES. AS A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST DRIFTS NORTHWARD SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO PART OF
THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AND A
REINFORCEMENT OF OUR LOW STRATUS DECK. WE COULD HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL
FOG DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT WIDESPREAD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
SPATIAL COVERAGE BEING GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH NUMEROUS
RECORD HIGHS AND WARM MINIMUMS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SATURDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY OUR WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN (80-90 PERCENT CHANCE) ARRIVES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT IT BEING AN ANAFRONT, WITH PRECIPITATION
LARGELY POST FRONTAL. THUS, EVEN IF SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED, THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. STILL WORTH MONITORING THOUGH AS THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO IF WE CAN GET SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH FORCING TO GEN UP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THEN COULD STILL HAVE SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTEND WITH. CSU-MLP MAINTAINS A 5% RISK FOR
SEVERE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION, BUT ACTUALLY HAS INCREASED TO A
15% AREA FROM THE I-64 AREA FURTHER EAST INTO IN AND OH.
MUCH COLDER AIR INVADES OUR CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT REACH ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS ON MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES
MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOME NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE
40S) BY NEW YEARS EVE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
A SATURATED STABLE LAYER INVERSION AND WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP FOG AND LOW STRATUS IMPACTS ONGOING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL MAINLY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR WITH
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG MAINLY AT CGI AND EVV. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL YIELD TO DRIER
WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING LIFTING CLOUD BASES
AND CLEARING SKIES TO VFR LEVELS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
WSW AOA 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page