044
FXUS63 KPAH 161143
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HOT, HUMID, AND VERY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
- AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.
- MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (40-80%) THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN WEST KENTUCKY. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN WEST
KENTUCKY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED
WHICH WILL HAMPER INSTABILITY, WITH SBCAPE STRUGGLING TO CLIMB
ABOVE 500J/KG. BASES WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE 850MB. COVERAGE
IS LIKELY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
OZARK FOOTHILLS. SPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
FROM THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE FOR TODAY, BUT GIVEN THE DEEP MIXED
LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE, THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DOMINATED WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY.
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED THANKS IN PART TO HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS 850MB FLOW (30 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL). THIS WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE QUAD
STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH GUSTS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A RAPID RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING UP TO 70 DEGREES.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO FORM INTO A LINE WHICH WOULD MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER WEST
KENTUCKY. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
FRIDAY, THE QUAD STATE SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER, WITH LESS
HUMIDITY TO END THE WORK WEEK.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS PERIOD, BUT
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DETAILS ARE QUITE MURKY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TSRA IS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 15KTS AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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