968
FXUS63 KPAH 192356
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE REGION REMAINS THE
GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS 30-35 MPH
COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20% AND THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ON SATURDAY, BUT THE GREATER 30-40%
CHANCE OF RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A LEADING 500 MB VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS IS NOW PROVIDING PVA OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THE RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH THE RAP SHOWING AN AXIS OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OF SBCAPE COMBINED WITH STEEPER 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES
AND 60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AT BEST WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES. THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 250 MB JET MAX IS NOW MOVING
IN, AND WILL INHIBIT STORM COVERAGE WITH THE NEXT FEW HOURS
POSING THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY TOWARDS THE
WABASH VALLEY AND EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS IS WHERE 150
TO 200 M^2/S^2 OF SRH AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
STORMS QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE FA AND GROW UPSCALE NORTH OF I-64
THIS EVENING WHERE THE CAMS ARE FOCUSING HELICITY TRACKS THAT
WOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST RISK OF TORNADOES. AT THIS POINT, THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE QUICKLY WANING WITH WARMING IN THE
MID-LEVELS, HOWEVER, REDEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD RESULT IN A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA INTO THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE REGION
BEFORE QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE
THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
OVERALL, THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS NOW
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARDS I-64, AND INSIDE THE AREA
THAT IS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8PM CST. WHILE MOST OF THE
FA MAY NOT EVEN SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN, ANY STORMS IN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS THAT CAN TAP INTO THE THERMODYNAMICS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALSO
REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILLS WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
ARRIVE TO END THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BY MONDAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS A 20%
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ON SATURDAY, BUT MOST OF THE FA LIKELY
REMAINS DRY. A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
WESTERN KY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR
TAF MENTION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ098-106-
107.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG
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