637
FXUS63 KPAH 232326
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST TODAY, PROVIDING
RELIEF TO THE AREA.
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE (10-30%) OF POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE (40-60%) MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BACKEND OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SITTING TO THE NE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW
AS A RESULT. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING A BIT OF THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING OF
THE HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
START OF THE WEEKEND.
A SMALL CHANCE FOR POPS RETURN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SEMO, FAR WESTERN KY, AND SOUTHERN IL WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE.
MID NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD POPS (40-60%).
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN,
BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAILS ON
THIS EVENT WILL COME IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
STUBBORN STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE CLOUD BASES HAVE LIFTED TO VFR FOR
PAH/CGI, THEY PRIMARILY REMAIN IN MVFR TERRITORY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS BECOMING LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR.
SHOULD SEE BASES RISE TO LOW VFR LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY
OR MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, BUT THE LOWER CIGS MAY HANG ON
LONGER AT OUR NORTHEAST TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...AZ
AVIATION...SP
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