685
FXUS63 KPAH 142345
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105-115 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A 20-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE WHERE UPPER
80S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS GOOD. OUTFLOW THIS MORNING HAS DELAYED THE WARMING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE, BUT IT APPEARS THAT
MOST OF THAT AREA WILL STILL GET TO A HEAT INDEX OF 105 OR
GREATER WHICH IS THE WARNING THRESHOLD FOR A LONG DURATION (4+
DAYS) HEAT EVENT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE DRY OUTFLOW
TO REACH THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE THIS EVENING, BUT THAT SHOULD
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TOMORROW'S HEAT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A
CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT THE RESULTING HEAT INDEX FORECAST WILL BE VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED. LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AT NIGHT.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE SUNDAY, RESULTING IN WEAK WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY. WE WILL SEE IF THAT HAPPENS, BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, HEAT INDICES COULD
CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION MONDAY, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE WILL
BE NO NEED TO MAKE THAT CALL UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY MORNING
WHEN CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL LOCATION IMPROVES.
AFTER A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WE WILL
WARM BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY WHEN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL
RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH FEW-SCT060 CUMULUS POSSIBLE
AFTER 15Z MAINLY AT KMVN/KEVV/KOWB. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
5-12KTS AFTER 15Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...RST
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