892  
FXUS63 KPAH 181930 CCA  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
227 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI,  
HIGHER PRESSURE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE SHOULD REMAIN  
DRY, WITH AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS THURSDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE  
SUPPORTS THIS, WITH CLOUDS MOVING WEST FROM THE APPALACHIANS, AND  
CU AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL KY. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT, JUST SOME  
TYPICAL SEPTEMBER PATCHY GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE  
WILL GO ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY, A PERSISTENCE  
APPROACH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
..CORRECTED
 
 
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES  
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THE STOUT RIDGE THAT'S BEEN ACTING AS A WEATHER DEFLECTOR WILL  
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND  
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.  
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING FRIDAY IN THE OZARK  
FOOTHILLS OF SE MISSOURI. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY  
THROUGH SATURDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA COULD ENHANCE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SE MISSOURI AND S ILLINOIS, WHERE RAINFALL  
TOTALS OF 1-1.5+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE FRONT  
APPEARS TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND RAINFALL TOTALS TREND DOWN  
TO NEAR NOTHING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHERN  
PENNYRILE OF KY.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET  
UP ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN  
THIS FLOW, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO HAVE ANYTHING  
MORE THAN ISOLATED POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE  
LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...08  
LONG TERM....DWS  
AVIATION.....08  
 
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