541
FXUS64 KLIX 211052
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
552 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- EXPECT HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 7 DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH MS AND SELA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO A LARGE TROUGH RUNNING FROM MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ONE EXITING THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING,
AND THE NEXT ONE ALREADY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS, AND
A THIRD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
PRETTY MUCH WHERE IT IS SUPPOSED TO BE, AND THERE IS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO AUSTIN
TEXAS. LOCALLY, RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MIDNIGHT CDT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
VERY LITTLE IS GOING TO CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AT 18 TO 24 HOUR INTERVALS,
PRODUCING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MAY (>1.75
INCHES), APPROACHING DAILY MAXIMA. EACH ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME, AND IF
CELLS REPEAT OVER AN AREA, LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES COULD OCCUR.
NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT,
BUT MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD POINT TO NEEDING A FLOOD
WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CUMULATIVE TOTALS OF EXPECTED RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS WOULD
POINT AT MOST AREAS GETTING AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL TO GET DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THAT IN A FEW AERAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THICK CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LEADS ME TO BELIEVE
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL BE REASONABLE IN MOST
CASES, WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE NEW WORKWEEK WILL BE VERY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF OVERALL PATTERN.
THE H5 FLOW WILL REMAIN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES/VORTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH WILL HELP GENERATE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING HYDRO CONCERNS FROM THE
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO THE LONG
TERM. PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.75-2.00" RESPECTIVELY WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH FOR EFFICIENT RATES. HIGHER RATES OVER LOCATIONS THAT MAY
RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE LONG TERM WILL BE MOST AT
RISK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL ASCENT (AGAIN MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS).
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
SHORT TERM. GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES,
WHICH IS AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDINESS AND
RAINFALL WILL HELP ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
ANOTHER MORNING OF HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
TERMINALS. MOST OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE,
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER (CEILINGS) HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
SEVERAL TERMINALS. THE LAST HOUR OR SO HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA. AS WE START TO SEE HEATING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIFT TO AROUND FL015 OR A LITTLE
HIGHER. THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA SHOULD INCREASE FROM ABOUT MID-
MORNING ONWARD, BUT THE THUNDER RISK PROBABLY DOESN'T SUPPORT
USING ANY MORE THAN PROB30 TO DESCRIBE IT. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
THREAT WILL PROBABLY END PRIOR TO 02Z FRIDAY...AT LEAST FOR TODAY.
COULD ALSO BE LOW CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IN
AREAS THAT GET SUFFICIENT RAIN TO AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY
TO SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF THE SAME SCENARIOS (PRECIPITATION AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE TIME. WINDS WILL BOUNCE
AROUND HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER, SOMETIMES
APPROACHING 15 KNOTS. AS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER THE
BULK OF THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN INLAND. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page