374
FXUS64 KLIX 091120
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
520 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 458 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
- MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.
- LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
PERFORMED AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ALIGN THE FORECAST WITH
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY. MAIN
STORY IS WHAT IS ON GOES-16 NIGHT AND FOG PRODUCTS THIS MORNING
ILLUSTRATING A PROMINENT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, SUSTAINED AT AROUND 925MB. ABOVE THIS LAYER, LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS EVIDENT FROM PROXIMITY
SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDINGS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY. THIS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS CONTINUED TO DRY
OUT/EAT AWAY AT THIS MOIST LAYER FORM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING QUITE THE COMPLICATED FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT HAS SEEN CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ARE
NOTICEABLY ON THE VERY WARM SIDE OF SHORT-RANGE BLENDED GUIDANCE,
WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT (MORE THAN SEVERAL HOURS) ARE
BOTTOMING OUT QUICKLY INTO THE LOW 30'S, ESPECIALLY THE DRAINAGE
AREAS. CAUGHT UP ON TRENDS TO HIGHLIGHT THE MINT'S FOLLOWING THIS
THINKING KEEPING FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WARMER, AND COOLER FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR THE
PASCAGOULA DRAINAGE BASIN FOLLOWING RECENT PQL TRENDS AND
METEOROLOGICAL LOGIC HAVING MAXIMIZED TIME UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES
TO AID IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES PROVIDING
SHALLOW/LOW-LEVEL PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIN OVER THIS MORNING
CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS, THEN, WE WARM UP/MIX OUT QUICKLY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD LINE THIS
MORNING AND MODIFY IF IT CONTINUES TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES GREATLY.
BUT REGARDLESS, HIGHS ARE AIMING FOR AROUND 60 FOR MOST AREAS
WHICH LOOKS GOOD IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. KLG
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS REACHED THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT EXTENDED FROM OKLAHOMA TO ARIZONA THIS EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK TO EAST TEXAS. A FAIRLY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 925 MB, OR
ABOUT 3,000 FEET, CONTINUED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THIS EVENING, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
30S.
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND THE
RESULTING CLOUD COVER. IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE MID TO LATE
MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST SUPPRESSES THE MOISTURE AROUND THE 925 MB LEVEL FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET RID OF THE CLOUDS. IN SOME RESPECTS, THAT
WOULD BE A GOOD THING, AS IT WOULD LOWER THE THREAT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE. UNLESS WE GET QUITE A BIT MORE
CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AT LEAST ONE
CATEGORY TOO COLD. STILL COULD GET SOME PATCHY FROST IN AREAS THAT
SEE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH ONSHORE WINDS RETURNING. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE'S VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY TOP OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW 60,
ASSUMING THE CLOUDS DEPART AS EXPECTED. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS 65
TO 70 ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT WORST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WELL TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. IT WILL ALSO SERVE TO SHUNT THE COLDEST AIR
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, CONTINUING THE TREND WE NOTED LAST
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA, PROBABLY SATURDAY NIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS
GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN, IT'LL BE
WITH THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT. MAYBE ENOUGH TO REDISTRIBUTE DUST ON
VEHICLES...QUARTER INCH TOTALS MIGHT BE PUSHING THINGS.
WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY KNOCK THE THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY HIGHS, BUT THAT WOULD
JUST PUT THEM AROUND NORMAL. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHS LOOK TO BE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S...AT
LEAST...ON FRIDAY. IF WE GET A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY, MID
70S LOOK REASONABLE. NBM HIGHS ARE 3-6F COOLER THAN THE ECMWF AND
GFS 12Z/08 OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE NBM NUMBERS DRIFT UPWARD IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MONDAY LOOKS COOLER, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE MONITORING A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DECK ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPACT MAINLY FAR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS PROVIDING OVC/BKN CIGS AROUND 020 AND
REMAINING PERSISTENT. MEANWHILE, CLEARING SKIES HAS INTRODUCED
SKC FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE CIGS THIS MORNING, AS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THESE
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP/DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THAT'LL IMPROVE FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO MAINLY VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH 09Z AS WINDS AND
SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
MARINE OPERATIONS, AT LEAST REGARDING WINDS AND WAVES FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONCE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AT MID-WEEK, THAT CAN
BE A SIGNAL FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING. AT THIS TIME, THE
ONLY WINDOW WHERE DEW POINTS MIGHT SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE PERHAPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
MAY NEED WIND/WAVE HEADLINES AT THAT POINT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 57 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 59 40 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 58 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 58 44 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 56 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 58 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...RW
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