386
FXUS64 KLIX 121108
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
608 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- FINALLY START TO DRY OUT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
- SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND VERY WET GROUND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPPER SHORTWAVE PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA AT MIDNIGHT
CDT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE DAKOTAS, WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT MIDNIGHT.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
EXITING THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME WE SHOULD
START SEEING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, BUT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DEFINITELY LOOK
MUCH BETTER WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES AT A RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE LEVEL, EVEN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S
IN MOST AREAS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MID-MAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE
REGION. THE RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BOTH WARM AND DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND
THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG 2-3C 850MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN PLACE
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS INVERSION WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP
OFF DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. AT MOST, SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF
THE GULF INCREASES OVERALL LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY AND THE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT INDUCES WARMING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE, DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
OVERNIGHT COOLING AND RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO OCCUR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO TAKE
HOLD IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE WILL STILL BE A MID-LEVEL
CAP IN PLACE AROUND 850MB, BUT IT WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 1-2C. GIVEN
THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SEABREEZE EACH DAY, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN PLACE TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION AND FIRE OFF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE UPDRAFTS IN THESE STORMS GET DEEP ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, A FEW WET MICROBURST EVENTS
COULD OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
1000 TO 1100 J/KG. THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO
OVERNIGHTS WILL BE DRY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. HEAT RISK WILL RISE INTO THE
MODERATE CATEGORY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY DUE TO THESE
WARMER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
CLOUD DECK AROUND FL010 HAS BEEN ANYWHERE FROM SCT TO OVC AQT MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WITH UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY THIS
MORNING, CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR RANGE BY MID-MORNING AND
LIKELY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DON'T FEEL THE THREAT IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AT A PARTICULAR TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. THE
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS
AND VERY WET GROUND. AT THIS TIME, THE ONLY FOG MENTION IS AT
KMCB, BUT WON'T RULE IT OUT ANYWHERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AS A FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page