035
FXUS64 KLIX 131052
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
552 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
UPPER TROUGH NOW WELL TO THE EAST OVER GEORGIA AND FLORIDA, WITH A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA
CITY. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EAST TEXAS.
THERE WERE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND AT MIDNIGHT CDT, WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 65 AT MCCOMB TO 75 AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT
IN NEW ORLEANS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN A
BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED, BUT IT IS IN
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. IF THERE'S A MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT, IT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO POST ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT OF THE NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE A BIT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING, AS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BE IN
PLACE. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS STICKING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK
RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
THE GFS/GEFS SEEMS TO BE BACKING OFF WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT POP
CHANCES, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGING SOME LIGHT POP CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN RATHER VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BUT FOG HAS NOT
DEVELOPED. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT CLOUD DECKS
AFFECTING TERMINALS. ONE HAS BEEN ABOVE FL040, WHILE THE OTHER HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER, AS LOW AS FL007 AT KHDC IN THE LAST HOUR.
WILL CARRY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WHERE APPROPRIATE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST UNTIL A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND
SUNSHINE EITHER RAISES CLOUD BASES TO ABOVE FL030 OR MIXES OUT THE
CLOUDS ENTIRELY. BY MID-DAY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BEYOND THAT POINT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, UNTIL THE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTH OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA GETS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ALLOW WINDS TO RETURN TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN
RETURN TO THE WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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