042
FXUS64 KLIX 160501
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1201 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
AS EXPECTED THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
AND IT WAS ALSO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OTHER THAN THAT IT WAS PRETTY MUCH
LIKE THE PREVIOUS 3-4 DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND THE LIKELY THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, MAYBE A FEW MORE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TODAY.
SO WHY IS THAT THE CASE. BIGGEST REASON IS WE FINALLY WILL HAVE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE FROM THE MID LVL RIDGE. IT WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES STILL BUT WILL BE GETTING SQUEEZED
BETWEEN A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND THE DEEP CLOSED LOW SPINNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLATNIC AND SOUTH-ATLANTIC STATES. ON THE BACK SIDE OF OUR DEEP
CLOSE LOW TO THE EAST IS A WEAK IMPULSE THAT CAN BE SEEN IN GOES19
WV MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MS AT 4Z. THIS WEAK IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. COMBINE THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS NOW (POSSIBLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6") AND WE
MAY SEE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE CAMS ARE
INDICATING MUCH HIGHER POPS THAN THE NBM. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW STORMS 2 OF THE LAST 3 DAYS WHEN THE NBM HAS
BASICALLY SAID WE WOULD BE BONE DRY IS REVEALING. WITH THAT WE HAVE
INCORPORATED SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE TO TREND THE POPS UP WILL
ADVERTISE 30% IN THE NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE BTR METRO. FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS TO HALF OF THE CWA CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THAT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH LOWER 90S.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WE WILL START TO SEE THINGS SHIFT AGAIN. THE
TROUGH THAT WAS STARTING TO DIG OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST AS A S/W WILL WORK DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF IT. OUR MID LVL CLOSED LOW TO THE ENE WILL BEGIN TO
FILL SOME AND SLOWLY WORK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
RIDGE TO START TO SLIDE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. THE RIDGE LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE BUILT BACK IN ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN CONVECTION BUT WE WILL PROBABLY BE BACK TO ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
CHECKING IN ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IT ISN'T
LOOKING GREAT IF YOU WANT RAIN OR ANOTHER SHOT OF FALL. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION AND IT SUGGEST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. NBM OVERALL LOOKS OK BUT MAY
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO COOL IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHAT LOOKED
LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO TO BE POSSIBLY A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME RAIN APPEARS TO NOT BE IN THE CARDS NOW. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT THE RIDGE WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ON ACROSS THE
OH AND LOWER INTO MID MS VALLEYS. THE PERSISTENT EAST COAST L/W
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN CONTROL THE RAIN CHANCES TAKE A NOSE
DIVE ONCE AGAIN BUT HIGHS COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL WORK EAST
AND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BAJA REGION WE WILL SEE WEAK
TROUGHING EXTEND THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
RAIN BUT IT ISN'T REALLY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND JUST A RESPONSE
TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. WITH THAT WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WILL REMAIN SO TILL AT LEAST MIDDAY. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON A FEW STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. THE TERMINALS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING
IMPACTS FROM ANY OF THOSE STORMS WILL BE BTR AND MCB. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEADING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER, THE SOUNDS, TIDAL
LAKES, AND PROTECTED WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WIND DICTATED
BY DAILY SHIFTS BETWEEN SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE. WAVES AND
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT FOR NEARSHORE AND PROTECTED
WATERS WITH 2-4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 69 90 68 / 10 0 10 0
BTR 92 71 93 70 / 10 0 10 0
ASD 90 67 90 66 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 92 74 92 73 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 89 70 89 69 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 90 66 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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