241  
FXUS64 KLIX 202326 AAA  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
- NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT RAIN  
AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.  
 
- MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PRIMARILY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED NEAR ATLANTA. A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD TO LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AT MIDDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN  
THE 70S. DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S  
SOUTH.  
 
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
BY TUESDAY EVENING AND CUT OFF OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE LOW  
OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DEEPEN AS THE UPPER  
AND SURFACE LOWS BECOME STACKED. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY SUNSET TUESDAY, BUT DRIER AIR WILL  
LAG SOMEWHAT AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS  
ARE ALREADY TURNING ONSHORE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING  
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S ON  
TUESDAY. MOISTURE RECOVERY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH  
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS  
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THIS EVENING AND THEN  
FLATTEN OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LIKELY TO BE ABUNDANT  
SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW, ENOUGH FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DOESN'T LOOK  
LIKE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE. FORECAST LOWS  
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE NBM BASED, WHICH IS A COMPROMISE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT  
DRIER AIR PROBABLY WILL NOT ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. DEW POINTS COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES  
FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. THIS COULD PRESENT FIRE DANGER ISSUES IF  
WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN  
LOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE GETS FAR ENOUGH  
EAST TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO RECOVER.  
 
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS  
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON  
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM, SO WILL ACCEPT NBM NUMBERS WITH NO  
OBVIOUS TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY.  
 
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE  
PERIOD, THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH  
COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE  
WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA  
FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. VIS REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MCB, BTR,  
HDC, HUM, AND PERHAPS EVEN ASD AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. LOOKING AT  
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AN HOUR OR  
TWO AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM THAT POINT  
ON. ADDED PROBS FOR -SHRA FOR BTR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT  
THIS IS VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN  
TO TRANSITION. FOR THIS CYCLE, THOSE IMPACTS WILL ONLY BE THE  
NORTH AND WESTERN TERMINALS. MSY WILL EXPERIENCE THE TRANSITION IN  
THE 24-30 HOUR TIMEFRAME. (FRYE)  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE  
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS  
AND SEAS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. CAUTIONARY  
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 79 57 82 52 / 0 0 20 10  
BTR 82 60 86 57 / 0 0 20 10  
ASD 79 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 10  
MSY 82 65 87 65 / 0 0 0 10  
GPT 77 60 82 60 / 0 0 0 10  
PQL 78 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 10  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...RDF  
MARINE...RW  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab MS Page
Main Text Page