086
FXUS64 KLIX 261756
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. COMMUTERS AND
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDUCIVE TO SUPER FOG
FORMATION NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF FIRES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
70S AND QUITE POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60 DEGREES.
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT BUT SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AS WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVERALL THANKS TO
THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONSHORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE EXPECTED. THE FOG MAY BE MORE
DENSE IN AREAS (VS WIDESPREAD) DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE
MARINE AREAS. BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE DEFINITELY STILL
EXPECTED. WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES, DRIVERS SHOULD PLAN EXTRA TIME
ON THEIR ROUTES AND USE EXTRA CAUTION. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, LOOKING AT THE MODELS, STILL, BUT
GENERALLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVERALL, AND WHILE SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
(30-50MPH), IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A BIG CONCERN. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND
LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, INCLUDING NEW YEARS'. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS
WILL BE QUITE COLD AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN COMING IN
EVEN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATING THE TROUGH MAY DIG IN A
LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED PRIOR. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING ARE BELOW
FREEZING OR APPROACHING FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE AS WELL THANKS TO THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. IN FACT WITH THE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL WINDS, WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-10/12 AND BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES FOR AREAS NORTH
OF I-10/12. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR OUR AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE START
TO WARM UP A LITTLE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR AND APPROACHING FREEZING FOR ALL
OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF I-10/12. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. THURSDAY WE START TO WARM
UP WITH LOWS GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MORNING
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY DUE TO DENSE FOG
CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MID DAY. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
NO REAL RELIEF FOR FOG OVER COASTAL AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT/SAT MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES IN EFFECT, ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS FOG MAY NOT LIFT IN MANY AREAS NEAR THE
COAST, BUT AS LAND HEATING GETS GOING, WE SHOULD SEE SOME EROSION
OVER WATER BODIES THAT CAN MOVE THIS AIR OVER THE WATER. A COLD
FRONT IS DUE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STARTING AROUND NOON MONDAY.
THIS WILL DEFINITELY MOVE THE FOG ISSUE AWAY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
AND START EASING LATE TUE INTO WED. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
MONDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED COULD REACH 25 TO 30KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 76 60 77 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 63 79 61 80 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 61 76 58 77 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 64 79 63 78 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 61 74 60 73 / 0 10 10 10
PQL 59 75 57 75 / 0 10 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-555.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ550-552-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-555.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-555.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ552-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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