646
FXUS64 KLIX 202324
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
624 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FIRES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
OVERALL, THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH.
INITIALLY, WE REMAIN IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH TAKING
A LOOK OUTSIDE THE CLEAR SKIES REPRESENTS THIS PATTERN
BEAUTIFULLY. THERE IS A RIDGE STARTING TO NUDGE EASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO TO SOUTH TEXAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WITH THIS UPPER HIGH MOVING CLOSER. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, WHICH IS GREAT NEWS FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. RH
VALUES ARE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PARISHES. HOWEVER, LACKLUSTER WINDS ARE
KEEPING US FROM NEEDED RFWS. THAT SAID, THROUGH THE WEEK THERE
WILL STILL BE A FEW FIRES LIKELY BREAKOUT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUT AGAIN WITH LACKLUSTER WINDS CONTROLLING THEM SHOULD BE A BIT
EASIER WITH ONLY LIMITED SPREAD. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ARKLATEX/RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE ONGOING
PATTERN FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS. EVEN DRIER
DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING.
AND ALSO CONTINUED MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS. BY THIS POINT, LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS TO START INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED GOING INTO THE LONG TERM AS DRY CONDITIONS (RH AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS) COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WHERE
THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE
AT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIGHT AT THE PERIOD ENDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT MOST
LOCATIONS, WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK CONTINUING THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS ARE SLOWLY RELAXING WITH OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME MORE BENIGN WITH TIME AS WINDS EASING BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW, SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AS AN EASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
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