415
FXUS64 KLIX 081617
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- STARTING THE WORK WEEK WITH OVERALL LESS COVERAGE IN DAILY
AFTERNOON RAIN/STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES PICK UP
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- AFTERNOON MAX HEAT INDICIES REACH INTO THE 100-105F RANGE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- FURTHER SLOW EASING OF TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
STARTING OFF WITH LATE THIS MORNING TAKING A LOOK AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS, WE'VE ENTERED A BIT OF A BROAD RIDGING PATTERN TAKING
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND SE US. THIS HAS LED TO A STEADY
DECREASE IN AVAILABLE LIFT/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ENHANCED
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
TURNING BACK TO A MORE SUMMERTIME-LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
STORM RISK. GOES-16 SATELLITE TRENDS, AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING
UPDATE HIGHLIGHTS A FEW PATCHY MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS COINCIDING
WITH A TONGUE OF H5-H3 MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE
SE US. COVERAGE IS THIN/BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WE'RE CONTINUING TO SEE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE WHAT'S GOING ON OUTSIDE THE WINDOW WELL, SHOWING AN
EVIDENT DRY SLUG/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOW- LEVELS, AND
NOTICEABLE POSITIVE BUOYANCY BETWEEN THE BOTTOM OF THIS INVERSION
AND LCL SUPPORTING SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT. 12Z HRRR CAME IN A BIT
MORE WITH COVERAGE LATER TODAY, WHICH SUPPORTS THE MORNING UPTICK
IN POP'S THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS WE SHOULD SEE
DIURNALLY- SUPPORTED SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TO THE FLORIDA PARISHES/SW MS. AGAIN, NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE (15% CURRENTLY) BUT COULD SEE A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM AT TIMES.
QUIET TONIGHT, THEN RINSE/REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER, COULD SEE
A RATHER EVIDENT LAKE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, SKEWED TO THE WEST SOME
DUE TO SE WINDS. THIS TYPICALLY SETS UP THE ZONE OF GREATEST
CONFLUENCE FROM THE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN/MAUREPAS LAKEBREEZE
PRESSING SW FROM THE LAKES AND COASTAL SE LA SEABREEZE RACING
NORTH TO SUPPORT A ZONE OF GREATEST SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
ALONG THE MS RIVER PARISHES OR ATCHAFALYA BASIN, IN A BROADER
SENSE AREAS WEST OF I-55. SAME STORY FOR THURSDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS ALL DAYS, WE'LL SEE HIGHS UPTICK A LITTLE BIT EACH
DAY, LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 90'S FOR MANY AREAS WED AND THU AS WE
BECOME SETTLED UNDER THE CENTER OF A SOUTHERN US 588DM RIDGE. NO
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR HIGHS AS DETERMINISTIC VALUES ARE
COMING IN REASONABLE. KLG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
LATE-WEEK, INDICATIONS ARE POINTING AT THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO
STEADILY BREAK DOWN, REVEALING AN UPTICK IN MAINLY LATE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING SCATTERED RAIN/STORM CHANCES. DON'T WANT TO GET
INTO THE WEEDS THIS FAR OUT WITH DETAILS, BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS,
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PROVIDING NW FLOW, OR EVEN A FRONT
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A FEW MCS'S INTO SE US OR COASTAL AREAS, JUST REMAINS TO BE
SEEN. KLG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SCT/BKN CU
WILL BOUNCE AROUND 025-040 WITH TIMES, WITH WINDS PRIMARILY LIGHT
IN THE 06-10KT RANGE. COULD SEE A A FEW SCT RA/TSRA MAINLY FOR
TERMINALS EAST OF I-59, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY
BRIEF/TEMPORARY VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS BUT WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE ONSHORE, PRIMARILY WEAK SE FLOW WHICH WILL PROMOTE
WEAK/CALM WAVES SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT DOES OCCUR. KLG
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG
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