326
FXUS64 KLIX 091208
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
708 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 659 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
- THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY TODAY. HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF OVERWHELMING DRAINAGE CAPACITY AND LEADING TO PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, WITH THE
HEAVIEST STORMS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS A LESS LIKELY THREAT, ONE OR TWO STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF ANY STORMS BECOME
SEVERE, THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
- RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER-AWARE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PLAN AHEAD FOR POTENTIAL STREET FLOODING - ESPECIALLY IF NORMAL
COMMUTING ROUTES INCLUDE FLOOD-PRONE UNDERPASSES AND OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE SPOTS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
UPPER FEATURES AT LATE EVENING INCLUDED A TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WEST TEXAS, WITH RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST, AND
ANOTHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OKLAHOMA TO WEST TEXAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR
FROM SLIDELL TO NEAR OPELOUSAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WHAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL RACE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, LEADING
TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.9 INCHES, EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY IT'LL BE MORE OF THE SAME. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SOME TIME
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. THIS ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
DOWN SOMEWHAT, SO THAT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS MONDAY BEFORE DEPARTING. IT MIGHT BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE
CLEARING OCCURS, WHICH WOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ALL OF THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND STRONG RIDING IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AMPLE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP A STRONG
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, AND THIS WILL
HELP LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. AT MOST, SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BENEATH THE INVERSION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE OF AROUND 30 DEGREES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INLAND AREAS THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES. HOWEVER, LOWS WILL STILL COOL A GOOD 20 DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. OVERALL, A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH OF
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE WERE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR. THE
CURRENT LINE OF TSRA WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST TERMINALS BY
ABOUT 15Z, WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEYOND THAT POINT IS HOW LONG
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE CONVECTION LINGERS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MOST
OR ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE EASTERLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST STRADDLING
OUR COASTAL WATERS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD LATER TODAY,
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, BRINGING OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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