600
FXUS64 KLIX 241739
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE
TO BOGALUSA.
- SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-3" PER HOUR. HIGH RATES, EVEN OVER SHORT PERIODS, COULD
OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN AREAS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS RESULT
IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS A RESULT OF MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. FIRST DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH CURRENTLY,
AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
DURING AFTERNOON HOURS - ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BATON
ROUGE TO POPLARVILLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTHWEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRIES TO PUSH
ACTIVITY SOUTHEASTWARD. IN FACT, LATEST TRENDS IN CAM GUIDANCE
INDICATE MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY REMAIN IN COASTAL AREAS OR
EVEN OVER THE GULF. GIVEN TRENDS IN BOTH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
MODEL DATA, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT
BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND AM NOW CARRYING ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FARTHER INLAND.
TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH THE SAME WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FORECASTING THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST, BUT
OVERALL CONSENSUS INDICATES CONVECTION WILL AGAIN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS TO INDICATE LESS
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THESE LATEST TRENDS, HAVE TRIMMED NORTHERN AREAS FROM THE
FLOOD WATCH AND IT IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO BOGALUSA. NOT SUPER CONFIDENT IN THE
THREAT ACROSS THE BATON ROUGE METRO GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS, BUT
WITH THE VULNERABILITY OF THE URBAN AREA, WENT AHEAD AND LEFT IT
IN PLACE GIVEN AT LEAST A LOWER END THREAT.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL STILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AT THE SAME TIME A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES AS THE
DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN.
THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION AND EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THAT HASN'T ALREADY BEEN SAID MULTIPLE
TIMES AT THIS POINT... THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN HIGH EACH DAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE
THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, EFFICIENT RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
EACH DAY WHEREVER THE HEAVIEST STORMS MOVE OR WHERE MULTIPLE
STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA RESULTING IN A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S AND HIGHS IN
THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING OF HEAVIER STORMS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS AS A RESULT OF HUMID
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
NEAR DAYBREAK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS,
WITH A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
34 KTS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ039-046>048-
056>058-064-070-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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