387
FXUS64 KLIX 311601
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1101 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- WARMER WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MARINE AREAS AND MAY BE IN AND
OUT OF CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS WE HAVE SAID FOR A
FEW DAYS, A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. SOME LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 3-6PM WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ALL WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MSW
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
THE PRIMARY PATTERN OVER THE AREA. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. PW VALUES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES,
WHICH IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. SO,
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE ENVIRONMENT
WITH DECENT CAPE. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THERE
ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, GIVEN
IT IS STILL GREATER THAN 4 DAYS OUT. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING CLOSELY
AS THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WE COULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST, AND TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DOMINATES THE
REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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