202
FXUS64 KLIX 251034
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
534 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 446 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SH/TS IS UPON US THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LINE IS MOVING IN FROM THE SHREVEPORT AREA THIS MORNING
AS WELL. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS WELL. TODAY WILL BE AN OFF AN
ON EVENT FOR SH/TS, BASICALLY THERE WILL LIKELY BE SH/TS FORMING
OR DECAYING AT ALL HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE THE NEXT
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE OKLAHOMA TO TEXARKANA REGION
AND RACE SE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING REACHING OUR AREA AROUND MID
MORNING SUN. BY MONDAY, THE WEAKNESS(THETAE) BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
MOVED FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE FRONT OUT WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
THIS WAY. THIS MAKES MONDAY DRY IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND. AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER, IT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SET OF
SH/TS THAT DEVELOP STARTING TUE. WE CAN UNRAVEL TUE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO IT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
OVERALL, GOING INTO THE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (EVEN
CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR A FEW) WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THAT SAID, GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST PATTERN FLIP. A MORE NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL BRING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD
OUR REGION LEADING TO INCREASED POPS GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES TO
MORE AVERAGE RANGES, ESPECIALLY AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AND VIS. SOME OF THESE, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED, COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. DISTURBED WEATHER ALL
DAY TODAY WILL HAVE SH/TS AROUND AT ANY GIVEN TIME. OUTSIDE THIS
ACTIVITY CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A VERY EARLY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER SET UP WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY HAZARDOUS LIMITS AT 1 TO 3
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST CONCERN AND UNKNOWN IS ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRY TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF STORMS OVER THE RED RIVER AREA AND THESE MAY MOVE
TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. IF THEY DEVELOP,
THESE SPECIFIC TYPE OF SYSTEMS NORMALLY DO NOT PLAY WELL WITH THE
MODELS AND THEY USUALLY SURGE SOUTHEAST FASTER AND STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED. IF THEY DO, EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AROUND
THESE STORMS. AFTERWARDS, WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR 3-
6 HOURS BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TAKE BACK OVER.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...TE
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