595
FXUS64 KLIX 080403 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1003 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022
FOG THAT IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM, BESIDES THE DARN HEAT OVER
THE AREA. THIS ABNORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TO WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE 80S TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY. MAYBE
WE WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT AS CLOUDS AND EVEN RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND THE BL WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER ALREADY COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, NO DRY AIR, AND LIGHT
WINDS THE CONDITIONS ARE PRIME FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY INITIALLY
BUT THEN FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.
THURSDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME BUT THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME RECYCLED CONTINENTAL DRY
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE FOG
ISSUES AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WE MAY FINALLY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
RIDGE WILL BEING TO BECOME SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG S/W MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL TRY TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT AT THE LEAST IT SHOULD ALLOW
HGHTS TO LOWER A TAD AND MAY EVEN SEE A SUBTLE WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THAT MAY HELP
KEEP HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...YAY ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S AND NOT
LOWER TO MID 80S, WHOOP-DE-DOO. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO SEE THINGS WAKE UP
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AND THEN ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A RATHER POTENT SYSTEM MID
WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME
MUCH MORE IN LINE THAN JUST 24-36 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
THIS STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL AND IT COULD BRING A POTENT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY DEVIATIONS MADE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THE LATEST NBM.
SUNDAY AND JUST INTO THE WORK WEEK WE WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK WSW TO
EVEN ZONAL FLOW AS THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL TRY TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN
TOWARDS THE REGION. WITH THE RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED THIS FRONT MAY BE
ABLE TO SINK INTO THE AREA BUT IT COULD THEN STALL OVER US AND WITH
THE WSW TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND
IF THERE IS ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL THE POTENT L/W TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST. BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY IT WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL BE A
RATHER LARGE DEEP LOW BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT STARTS
MOVING MORE EAST. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIG MUCH MORE AFTER THAT BUT
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST HGHTS WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
STRONG JET SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT
DYNAMIC THAT WE WILL SEE MORE THAN ENOUGH JET SUPPORT WITH SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE EVEN TRYING TO INDICATE A SECONDARY JET CORE/MAX MOVING
RIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NOT GOING TO GET INTO THE DETAILS
AS THIS IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT BUT THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH SUGGESTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. YES THERE
ARE SOME NEGATIVES BUT IF THE NEGATIVES COME INTO PLAY TO BRING DOWN
THE SEVERE RISK IT APPEARS IT WOULD ONLY INCREASE THE RISK FOR HEAVY
RAIN. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA OUTLOOKED AND
FOR DAY 7 THIS IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. THIS AGREES WITH OTHER LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND CIPS WHICH ARE HIGHLIGHTING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022
THE REMAINING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL
BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER SIGNAL OF MORE REDUCED VIS/CIGS BY THE
END OF THIS CYCLE TOMORROW NIGHT, OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 429 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022
STATUS QUO FOR THE MARINE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REGION BUT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO. DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY AGAIN OVER THE COOLER SHELF/NEAR SHORE WATERS. NO MAJOR
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE MARINES ZONES UNTIL NEXT WEEK AS WE DON'T SEE
A FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOG IS
THE MAIN CONCERN AND WE WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT OVER THE
COMING DAYS. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 83 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 65 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 60 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 65 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 62 79 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 60 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB
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