668
FXUS64 KLIX 290500
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT TODAY, WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10/12 WILL BE AROUND 25MPH OR GREATER WITH GUSTS OF
40 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS (20-25MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH) WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (20-30%)
WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-24 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I10/12 INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
EYES ARE LOOKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL START TO MOVE INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWFA AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH AND
CLEAR OUR WESTERN CWFA BY 8AM THIS MORNING. CAMS AND RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH WITH MUCH RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT EXACTLY BE RULED OUT QUITE YET,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SO, WITH
THE LOWER QPF NOT HELPING MUCH, THINK THE SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
STILL HOLDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONCERNS RESIDE. RH VALUES DROP RIGHT AS THE WINDS
START TO DECREASE JUST A BIT. MORE ON THAT BELOW IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE, THE STORY WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY (CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY) AND IT WOULDN'T BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NEED A SHORT-FUSED EXTENSION IF WE CLEAR A BIT
EARLIER ALLOWING FOR MIXING TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS WOULDN'T BE
IMPOSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG CAA AND ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW
LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYS ELEVATED TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WIND CHILLS TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW COLD HAZARD HEADLINE CRITERIA. AT THIS
JUNCTURE, WITH RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I10/12 WILL DROP TO ADV CRITERIA, WILL BE GOING WITH A CW.Y THIS
CYCLE. GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET A BIT
MORE INTERESTING WITH THE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS. SURE, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE MUCH LESS OF A FACTOR DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
HOWEVER, PARTS OF THE SOUTHSHORE MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION, THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE START OF TRANSITION. OUR REGION STARTS
UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE
OVERALL PATTERN MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO CHANGE, BUT WE WILL EVOLVE TO
MORE CLIMO TEMPS AS THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS STREAMING IN OVER THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AND CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS AND EVEN A
SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME,
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING "HOLIDAY WEEKEND" AN H5 IMPULSE BEGINS TO
CARVE OUT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SHOULD START MOVING EAST
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, GLOBALS INDICATE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR REGION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS PACIFIC WAVE BEFORE A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.
QPF SIGNAL IS THERE, BUT STILL LIGHT, MAINLY BECAUSE THE RETURN
FLOW AHEAD IS LACKLUSTER. THAT SAID, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST
A TINY AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT NO
INDICATION OF ANOTHER FREEZE LATER ON IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR PERHAPS LOWER AT
TIMES. AS THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AND BECOME GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES. MODERATE AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET MONDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE GOING
FORWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT, VIS/CIG CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH
MOST OF THE REGION HANGING ONTO VFR AFTER 15Z (EARLIER FOR THE
WESTERN TERMINALS SUCH AT BTR AND MCB). ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, ANY
SEA FOG THAT MAY IMPACT MS GULF COAST TERMINALS WILL NO LONGER BE
A PROBLEM...AT LEAST NOT THROUGH THE REMAINING DURATION OF THIS
TAF CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR
GALE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WESTERN MARINE WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE WATERS INCLUDING THE TIDAL LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AS WINDS SHIFT, RECENT ISSUES LOCALLY
WITH SEA FOG WILL DISSIPATE. THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE INTO THE REGION
THAT COULD ELEVATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DUE INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. (FRYE)
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SPS IS OUT FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND A COLD FRONT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE EARLY TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY RELAX JUST
A BIT RIGHT AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD RANGE.
AT THIS JUNCTURE, CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST SHY OF RFW CRITERIA,
HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CONDITIONAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE RH VALUES
INCREASE AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 43 49 27 / 20 90 0 0
BTR 80 45 53 30 / 20 80 0 0
ASD 77 45 55 29 / 20 70 10 0
MSY 79 50 57 36 / 30 60 10 0
GPT 73 48 57 32 / 10 70 10 0
PQL 76 48 58 28 / 0 70 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ034-046-047-
056>060-064>070-076>078-080-082-084>090.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-047-048-071-076-079>084.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-555-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ550-552-570-
572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ550-552-570-572.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ550-552-570-572.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-555-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ552-570-572.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ552-570-572.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
FIRE WEATHER...RDF
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