191
FXUS64 KLIX 210528
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY.
- FOG POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY RETURN SATURDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE MAIN STORY OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS
COMES AS WE SEE OUR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND A SURFACE LOW
SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WE GET A LLJ
PUSHING UP INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GULF SOMETIME MID FRIDAY MORNING
THAT WILL HELP SUPPORT OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WHILE THE
CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK TO SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION, A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINITELY IN PLAY. THE AREAS THAT
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-10/12 CORRIDOR AND TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY RAIN OR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO END BY THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO CONTINUE THE
WARM TREND WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS.
FOG POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY HIGH FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD, BUT DON'T
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG IN SOME AREAS. SATURDAY
MORNING HOWEVER COULD SEE THE RETURN OF FOG CONCERNS AND THERE ARE
ACTUALLY ALREADY SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING THIS. SO THAT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH TOMORROW IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE START TO THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR NORTH AND HOLDS ALL OF SUNDAY. ON TOP OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER THE DESERT SW WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE
RIDING OVER OUR AREA. SPEAKING OF THIS TROUGH, THAT WILL BE OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER AS IT SLIDES UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE WE
YET AGAIN SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE A SUBSEQUENT
FRONT WITH IT. AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA MOISTURE
WILL POOL INTO THE AREAS THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP POPS
START TO INCREASE BY MONDAY EVENING, PEAKING DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BUT LINGERING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN AS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA STILL SITS
IN A D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT. IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO PLAY OUT AS
CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE MODELS, IT WOULD LEAVE US WITH A DRY
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. GIVEN IT IS A WEEK OUT,
I WOULD NOT 100% BUY INTO THIS JUST YET. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SUNDAY WOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE BACK TO A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MOST AREAS. IF OUR FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH HERE, WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WOULD BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMALS AND THURSDAY
WOULD SEE A PRETTY DECENT COOLDOWN.
NOW THERE IS SOME QUESTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS EVERY WEEK THE
LAST FEW WEEKS MODELS 6-7 DAYS OUT HAVE SHOWN A DEEPENING TROUGH
SHOOTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S AND BREAKING OUR PATTERN. HOWEVER,
UP TO THIS POINT EACH ONE HAS WEAKENED WITHIN A COUPLE DAYS OF
GETTING HERE, LEAVING US WITH LITTLE RAIN CHANCES AND NOT A BIG
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. SO, WILL THIS SYSTEM FINALLY BE THE ONE TO
ACTUALLY MAKE IT HERE WITHOUT WEAKENING? TIME WILL TELL. IT IS
SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THOSE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING WHICH IS
CAUSING SOME IFR TO LIFR CIGS FOR A HANDFUL OF TERMINALS. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS WE SEE SOME SHOWERS START TO
DEVELOP WEST OF US AND DRIFT THIS WAY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND, EXPECT THE LOW CIGS TO CONTINUE.
PROB30'S FOR MOST TERMINALS STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
LASTING THE AFTERNOON AS POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THIS. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG
OVERNIGHT, PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
MIXING SHOULD BE BETTER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
SOUTHWEST WATERS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY GUSTY THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS
UP ABOVE 20KTS. FOR THIS REASON, A SHORT LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ALONG OR NORTH OF THE COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
WEAKENING FRONT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CALM OVER
THE WEEKEND TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 80 63 79 / 40 60 10 20
BTR 67 83 65 81 / 30 50 10 20
ASD 62 81 62 81 / 10 40 10 10
MSY 68 84 66 82 / 20 40 10 10
GPT 64 77 64 80 / 10 50 10 10
PQL 60 79 62 81 / 0 40 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ570-572.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ572.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL
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