915
FXUS64 KLIX 030514
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- VERY NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WARM DAYS AND SCATTERED DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW, A
FEW STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE NEXT BEST DAY FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE FCAST IS SO TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT WE WILL JUST
GIVE TWO MAJOR THEMES IN THIS DISCUSSION. THE FIRST WILL BE WHAT
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES ON THE 4TH. THE
SECOND WILL BE THE HEIGHTENED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE 4TH WILL BE VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THERE IS NO
WAY TO TELL WHICH PARTICULAR PLACE WILL GET A STORM DURING THE DAY
BUT ALL ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECAY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW AROUND WHICH COULD POSTPONE FIREWORKS
FOR THOSE AREAS, BUT THESE SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES BUT THESE NUMBERS
WILL STILL TOP OUT AROUND 105HI FOR INDEPENDANCE DAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES RISE INTO THE 50% OR HIGHER
RANGE FOR DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE SAME RHYTHM WILL OCCUR WITH MORNING
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MARINE AREAS WITH SOME OF THESE FLOATING
ASHORE AROUND SUNRISE. THIS THEN TRANSFERS FROM MARINE TO LAND
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME
FROM HIGHER PW VALUES AROUND 2+". THERE IS NO DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO IT WILL JUST BE LEFT UP TO BOUYANCY
PROVIDED BY HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING. AS USUAL, DURING THE
SUMMER, ONE OF TWO OF THESE COULD GET A BIT STRONG EVEN THOUGH THE
RISK LEVEL IS QUITE LOW. THIS WILL REMAIN A VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT
FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT. BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT,
THEY NORMALLY FALL APART WHEN THEY MOVE TO THE COAST DUE TO THE
INCREASED FLOW FRICTION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL EPITOMIZE
SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. H5 RIDGE WILL BE
AROUND TO KEEP THINGS ON THE HOT SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S. WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE "FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES UPWARD OF 105F EACH AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, WITH
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...SEA/LAKE BREEZE OR EVENTUAL OUTFLOW THERE
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LANDBASED ZONES AND LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FOR THE
MARINE ZONES. OVERALL, POPS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AGAIN BECAUSE THERE WILL BE AN H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION,
ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT HEAT BUBBLE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
TSRA TODAY WILL BE TIMED IN PROB30 GROUPS. THOSE THAT DO HAPPEN
TO MOVE OVER ANY TERMINAL WILL PRODUCE AT MOST MVFR CONDITIONS
TEMPORARILY. MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY WILL DECAY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OUTSIDE ANY TSRA AND LIGHT FG WHERE RAIN HAS
OCCURRED DURING THE DAY, VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS AND DIRECTION WILL VARY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND RISE TO 10 TO
15KT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW MAY BE STRONGER
AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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