138
FXUS64 KLIX 191054
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
554 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 449 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- VERY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WEEK ONCE THE
CURRENT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA MOVE OUT. A WARMING TREND WILL
BRING THE AREA BACK TO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25KT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
COLD FRONT, AS OF 1115PM SAT, WAS ALONG A LINE FROM PICAYUNE TO
KENNER MOVING SE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER THIS
MORNING CAUSING A STRONGER SLOPE(RISE/RUN) WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY
MOISTURE THAT MOVES UP ITS SFC TO BECOME SQUEEZED, CONSIDERABLY
LOWERING THE HEIGHTS THAT CAN PRODUCE RAINFALL. THIS PROCESS IS
ALREADY CAUSING LIGHTNING RATES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY. WE WILL SEE
THIS VERTICAL SQUEEZING AS A DECAYING PROCESS FOR THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH NOON TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL DO THE SAME IN THAT
IT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR
ALONG THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME DRY
AIR ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS DROPPING THE AREA BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S TODAY FOR HIGHS. A BIT OF WARMING MONDAY WILL BRING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THEN AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
A BIT COOL DURING THE MORNING MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. LOWS WILL ALSO START TO WARM THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE, THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE
NICE AND NORMAL FOR SPRING HERE AS WE WATCH THE OLD BATTLE OF
WINTER GIVE IN TO SUMMER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LONG TERM
MEDIUM CONTINUES TO SHOW A PATTERN THAT IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND NOT AS STAGNANT. GEFS AND ECS ARE BOTH IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT WITH A LOT OF COMING IN FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BROAD L/W TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SUPPRESSES IT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID THERE ARE STILL SOME
INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL LATE IN THE FORECAST WITH
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE LATEST NBM IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE
ENSEMBLES BUT IT IS 6/7 DAYS AWAY AND THE NBM IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO NO
DEVIATIONS TO THE LATEST NBM AT THIS TIME.
AS MENTIONED HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE
WILL BE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FRIDAY THE FIRST WHAT WILL BE
MORE SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY WILL WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH WE WON'T GET ANY COOLER THIS
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGING ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA
BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND AND MAYBE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES. /CAB/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH VERY FEW TS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS NOON APPROACHES
TODAY. CIGS WILL LIFT TO ALL MVFR AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
THESE CIGS WILL THEN BECOME VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES, WITH ALL AREAS VFR BY NOON TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KT TODAY
THORUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THESE
CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST INTO TUESDAY BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED. WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
AND EASE A BIT TO AROUND 10-15 KT, POSSIBLY REMAINING THAT WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ529-531>536-
557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ541-543-551-
553-554-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ531>536-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ543-551-553-
554-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TE
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