599
FXUS64 KLIX 151047
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
547 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE
SPORTS AND FESTIVALS.
- MODERATE TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG COULD
ALSO OCCUR NEAR WATER BODIES AND INLAND LOCATIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
STRONG STACKED HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES QUITE LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT IS
NOT TO SAY THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN, AS THERE WILL BE A FEW
STRAY SH/TS THAT COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. BUT, IT
WON'T BE MORE THAN ISOLATED. THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
MAKINGS ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE THIS RAPIDLY
MOVING SE BY FRI EVENING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE THIS
FRONT KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT OF SH/TS
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS FRONT AS WELL BEFORE IT GETS TO US. THE
BERMUDA HIGHS RIDGE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL NOT WANT TO GIVE MUCH
ROOM FOR THE NEW HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT CAUSING THE HIGH
BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRIDGE THE FRONT EVENTUALLY. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE SH/TS ALONG THIS FRONT TO DECAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. WHEN
THIS OCCURS WILL BE A BIG DEAL AS IT WILL TELL US IF WE GET SOME
RAINFALL OR NOT OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA RECENTLY WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF
BRIEFLY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT WELL INTO THE GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL TURN THE WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET UP INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.6 INCH
RANGE (90+ PERCENTILE) ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10/12) SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES LOOK TO BE LOW AS OF NOW. THE MOST LIKELY
RESULT IS THAT SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI MAY SEE ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN
OR SO AND AREAS SOUTH OF THAT SEE MUCH LESS. MUCH OF THE AREA COULD
REALLY USE THAT RAIN, AND IF IT DOESN'T MATERIALIZE SATURDAY NIGHT,
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 35
PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BELOW 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
THE AREA, AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
PROBABLY BE IN THE MID OR UPPER 80S SATURDAY, MAY NOT MAKE IT MUCH
PAST 70 ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IF WE DON'T LOSE THE CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT THAT'S WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN LATE APRIL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER, AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, BUT NBM DETERMINISTIC SAYS AROUND 50. NORMAL LOWS
FOR LATE APRIL SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. (RW)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEVERAL SITES SEEING
MVFR CIGS FOR SHORT DURATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
GETTING MVFR TO IFR CIGS THAT WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR MOST
TERMINALS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A COLD FRONT COMING ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHERE MORE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LEADING TO
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR EVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE
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