015
FXUS64 KLIX 101812
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1212 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
* A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOLLOWING TODAY'S COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST PLACES THAT ARE GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND ENSURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE ACCESS
TO WARM SHELTER.
* ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL FIRE PROTECTION ASSOCIATION, NEARLY
HALF OF ALL HOME FIRES OCCUR BETWEEN THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER,
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, WITH THE INCREASED RISK ATTRIBUTED TO THE
USE OF HOME HEATING DEVICES SUCH AS PORTABLE SPACE HEATERS AND
FIRE PLACES. THOSE PLANNING TO USE SUCH DEVICES DURING THIS COLD
SNAP SHOULD BE SURE TO FOLLOW ALL MANUFACTURER SAFETY
RECOMMENDATIONS - SUCH AS USING A SCREEN AND KEEPING A FIRE
EXTINGUISHER NEAR ALL FIRE PLACES; AND ENSURING ALL SPACE
HEATERS ARE PLUGGED DIRECTLY INTO WALL OUTLETS AND PLACED ON
LEVEL SURFACES AT LEAST 3 FT FROM ANY FLAMMABLE MATERIALS.
* IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 6P THIS EVENING THROUGH 6A
MONDAY. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING
SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AND INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE NOTED ON RADAR, ABOUT 75 MILES BEHIND THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS THE
AREA, EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE A SOLID 20-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT, TONIGHT'S LOWS IN THE 40S ARE
STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WOOF. AT LEAST WE CAN TURN OFF OUR AIR CONDITIONERS FOR A WHILE!
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL,
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 50S MOST PLACES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, SO
HAVE THOSE JACKETS ON HAND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TO OCCUR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR MASS SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET, AND MORNING LOWS ARE FORECASTS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR BOTH MORNINGS. FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE FREEZE
CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A
FEW HOURS, SO THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO TAKE CARE TO PROVIDE OUTDOOR
PETS WITH WARM SHELTER AND/OR BLANKETS, AND THOSE USING INDOOR
SPACE HEATERS OR FIRE PLACES SHOULD HEED ALL NECESSARY SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.
REGARDING ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL
MEET CRITERIA ANYWHERE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, WHICH PRECLUDES A FREEZE
WARNING, AND WIND CHILLS/AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ALL LOCATIONS,
THOUGH A COUPLE PLACES DO GET CLOSE ALONG THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR
WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH 25 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN
ONLY RISING INTO THE MID 50S MOST PLACES, BUT SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER, CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF WARMING
TREND SETS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BY MIDWEEK, A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER-WAVE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. REGARDING PRECIPITATION, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
BROADENING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. EVEN THEN, RAIN CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY MEAGER (ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE RANGE) DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
AND OUT OF THE AREA AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA, EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL PROMOTE MORE MIXING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OF SE LA AND MS DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE
UNTIL ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RESULT IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 39 56 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 42 59 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 43 60 32 56 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 49 60 41 55 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 45 59 36 55 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 44 60 31 55 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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