969
FXUS64 KLIX 021726
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, RESULTING IN RELIEF FROM LAST WEEK'S OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND A
GENERAL LACK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AS EXPECTED THE "COLD" FRONT IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE COAST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 11AM. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE GULF AS THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OR DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, WITH DRY AIR
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST RAIN
CHANCES LOW. WILL MOSTLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST TUES/WED
WHERE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE MORE OF A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP AFTERNOON MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITIERA, THOUGH A FEW PLACES COULD PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 105
DEGREES EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS AND THE LOCAL AREA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WIHT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING
NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AND
GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS MOISTURE INCREASES, DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS PEAK
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITIERA, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE
103-106 RANGE EACH DAY. WARMER THAN NORMAL AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
STILL SOME MINOR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF TO AFFECT THE AREA SOME TIME DURING THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME, BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY WITH
HE PREVIOUSLY BULLISH OPERATIONAL GFS NOW KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE OFFSHORE. IT HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN, INDICATING NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE AREA
INSTEAD OF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S FRONT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF HUM WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL THIS MORNING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME
TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BECOMING
MUCH MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY WITH SOME VARIATION BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWEST AN WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL SHIFT, PLACING THE LOCAL WATERS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND RESULTING IN MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 1 TO 2 FOOT
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ532-
534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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