652
FXUS64 KLIX 050639
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
139 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LOW, ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MOST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100 TO
108 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH LABOR DAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTEND FROM CANADA, ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAIN, AND DOWN TO THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE TX COAST. THAT PUTS
THE LOCAL AREA ALONG ITS SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. AT THE SAME TIME,
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY, WITH THE
RESULTING WEAKNESS ALOFT CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT GOES-16 BLENDED TOTAL PW
INDICATES 2.3+ INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST LA
AND SOUTHWEST/COASTAL MS. THOSE VALUES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.
AS MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS INITIATE ALONG SEABREEZE OR OTHER
MESOSCALE CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES, HIGHLY SATURATED COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT QUITE EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESSES AND THUS THE POTENTIALLY
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FOR
TEMPS, IT'LL BE MORESO ABOUT CONVECTIVE TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE.
LATEST FORECAST TEMPS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HRS AGO AS MORE RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY AGAIN HOLD HIGHS TO UPPER 80S FOR
THE MOST PART.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST SUNDAY AND TROUGH TO THE EAST DIGS
SOUTH, FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE NORTHERLY. FORECAST PROFILES
MAY THEN BECOME SLIGHTLY DRIER IN THE MID LEVELS COMPARED TO TODAY
THE PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS, INCREASING DCAPE AND A BETTER-DEFINED
INVERTED-V STRUCTURE COULD MODESTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS, PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AFTER
PROLONGED HEATING. POPS ARE DOWN A BIT AS WELL, SO MORE LIKELY TO
SEE HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 90S.
ON LABOR DAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BENEATH A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THAT A
BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WOULD REACH
THE CWA. NOT SO SURE WITH LATEST RUNS AND TEND TO AGREE WITH THE
FRONT STALLING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS TO
NOT REALLY MATTER MUCH AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, STILL GOING TO HAVE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH POPS WELL OVER 50% FOR SOME AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING TO POSSIBLY EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
LABOR DAY. SO FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND, STAYING WEATHER AWARE WILL
BE QUITE IMPORTANT WHEN OUTDOORS.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
BY THE TIME TUESDAY ARRIVES, THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WILL HAVE FLATTENED OUT A BIT, AND WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM THE DESERT SW OUT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE
COPIOUS MOISTURE, LEADING TO THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THERE IS A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON TUESDAY SO OF ALL
THE DAYS IN THE LONG TERM, THIS WOULD BE THE DAY WITH A HIGHER
CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, TAKING
THE HIGHEST POPS WITH IT BUT WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW, POPS REMAIN ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK, THE COMBINATION OF
THAT, LIGHT WINDS, WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND PW
VALUES AT 2 INCHES OR ABOVE, DAILY SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON. IT'S LIKELY THAT THE LONG TERM NBM POP
VALUES ARE A TAD TOO LOW AS WE GO INTO WED THROUGH FRI, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ONGOING RAIN AND
MOISTURE LOOKS TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S BUT THE
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE IN
SOME AREAS. IF POP COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED, AND TEMPS GET
ANY HIGHER, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW DAYS NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING NEAR
COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KGPT TO KASD AND THOSE SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. PROB30S WILL BE NEED FOR THOSE SAME SITES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL.
ANY TERMINALS IMPACTED BY STORMS WOULD SEE TEMPORARY IFR OR MVFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND FIELD AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL SUPPORT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK, SO EXPECT
WINDS 10KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS/WAVES 1-2 FEET.
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE
CHANCE FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF IS
STEADILY DECREASING. THEY SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH A BIT
FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH MEANS RIDGE ALOFT IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. THAT COMBO MAKES IT HARDER FOR FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT
HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE EVEN WEAKER WINDS/SEAS AS THE FRONT
TRIES TO MOVE IN, BUT THEN ONSHORE FLOW AGAIN BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED. MEANWHILE, THE MAIN IMPACT IN BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM
PERIODS WILL BE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.
MEFFER
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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