948  
FXUS64 KLIX 110546  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1246 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IN  
TERMS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE  
REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE  
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS  
THIS OCCURS, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND  
EASTERN GULF WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME DIRECTLY  
CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL  
SUBSIDENCE WILL BOTH WARM AND DRY THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE  
ATMOSPHERE, AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY INDUCE A DECENT MID- LEVEL  
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700MB. THIS INVERSION WILL HELP TO LIMIT  
UPDRAFT GROWTH, EXCEPT WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS LIKE  
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, CLOUD DEVELOPMENT  
AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED THE  
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP FORECAST WHICH DROPS  
FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ON FRIDAY DOWN TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST POP IS IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE  
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY. MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW  
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME WET MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY WITH THE DEEPEST UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP. DCAPE IS  
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1200 J/KG AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THESE  
STRONGER UPDRAFTS IS HIGHLY PROBABLE EACH DAY. THE END RESULT IS  
THAT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND EVENTS COULD OCCUR BOTH SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE  
ALOFT, GREATER SOLAR INSOLATION, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY AS  
THE DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL CLIMB  
FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TODAY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
90S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES VALUES WILL ALSO  
INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES WARM, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT  
ADVISORY LIMITS BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, HEAT  
INDICES WILL BEGIN TO EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS WITH VALUES GENERALLY  
BETWEEN 108 AND 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE  
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY OVER NON-COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND RESULTANT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL  
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
THIS WILL KEEP WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, DANGEROUS HEAT  
INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 112, AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE  
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BENEATH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE STRONG  
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION STILL IN PLACED WILL LIMIT MOST  
CONVECTION TO COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE  
TO SERVE AS A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. ADDITIONALLY, THE WET  
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED EACH AFTERNOON AS  
DCAPE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW END  
SEVERE RISK OF SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST EVENTS IN PLACE  
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY.  
AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE  
EAST. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL DO TWO THINGS, INCREASE OUR  
MOISTURE ALOFT AND PROVIDE INCREASED LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF  
PWATS RETURNING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR AND GREATER DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SUPPORT MORE CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON THURSDAY. POP VALUES REFLECT  
THIS BY INCREASING BACK INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE, OR PRETTY  
MUCH THE NORMAL POP FOR MID-JULY. THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
WILL STILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE  
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE ON THURSDAY, BUT THIS CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE IN  
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. FURTHER INLAND,  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE ANY  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE COASTAL CONVECTION. AS A RESULT, HEAT  
INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT  
ADVISORIES FOR OUR INLAND LOCATIONS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
A POCKET OF A IFR TO LIFR STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER RAIN-SATURATED  
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN BATON ROUGE  
AND MCCOMB. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SCT TO BKN  
STRATUS TO INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT BTR, HDC, AND MCB THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN TOO WEAK TO MOVE THIS OUT  
OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THIS STRATUS SPREADING  
EASTWARD TOWARD THE PEARL RIVER BASIN SUCH AS BXA AND ASD PRIOR TO  
SUNRISE. LOW STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER  
SUNRISE AT THESE TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST  
LIKELY BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z, AND THIS THREAT IS REFLECTED BY PROB30  
WORDING IN THE FORECAST AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. IF A STORM  
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL, BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD  
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. ANY  
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 30 MINUTES OR LESS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY  
LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION. IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD RIDGE  
OVER THE GULF, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST  
AT 10 KTS OR LESS ASIDE FROM AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE  
WHERE SEA/LAKE/LAND BREEZE CYCLES WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON BOTH  
DIRECTION AND SPEED. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME  
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING  
DURING THE LATE NIGHT, PEAKING DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND  
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 72 93 72 94 / 10 40 20 30  
BTR 74 94 75 93 / 10 50 30 50  
ASD 74 93 73 93 / 10 40 20 40  
MSY 78 94 78 93 / 10 40 30 50  
GPT 76 91 76 92 / 20 40 20 40  
PQL 74 92 73 93 / 20 40 20 30  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...PG  
LONG TERM....PG  
AVIATION...TJS  
MARINE...PG  
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