946
FXUS64 KLIX 170647
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
147 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
FRIDAY RESULTING IN MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE GOING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
THE ROBUST H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY ALLOWING
FOR A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL PROMOTE MUCH LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE 601 DAM RIDGE, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL START TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS TODAY AS
A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE "ALATENNGA"
REGION REDUCING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO DESPITE THE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB HIGHER
AND CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK
BACK INTO THE REGION, BUT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AFTERNOON
MIXING, IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WITH THAT, POPS WILL REMAIN LOW
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG LAKE/SEA BREEZES. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER UPPER RIDGING. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE LOW WILL LOSE THE BATTLE AGAINST STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TEXARKANA REGION, AND THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LOW, AND
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE
LOW WILL MOVE BEFORE DISSIPATING AND THUS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WE'LL ACTUALLY SEE. THE FARTHER WEST THE LOW MOVES BEFORE
DISSIPATING, THE BETTER OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOCALLY AS THAT
WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE LAST
FEW MODEL CYCLES HAS BEEN FOR A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION, AND THE
18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SIMILARLY AS WELL. THAT BEING
SAID, EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY MON-WED, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE 100-
105 DEGREE RANGE. (DM)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE AS RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR THURSDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, BUT LIKELY
WILL SEE FEWER GUSTS THAN WEDNESDAY. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TIGHT AND ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THESE UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ529-
531>536-543-557-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ541-551-553-
554-570-572-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ531>536-543-557-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ551-553-554-
570-572-575.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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