412
FXUS64 KLIX 261917 AAC
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 214 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND REMEMBER
WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
- THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT
HEAT THREATS THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
STILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING
IF POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE STEERING
FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, AS UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TODAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MULTIPLE HI
RES GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST AN MCS TYPE OF FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THE MCS LIKE FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT, AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS RELATIVE THE DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE
STORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR FLOOD
WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LOSES STEAM AND STALLS WHILE BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THE BOUNDARY
WILL PULL SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR - ESPECIALLY ALOFT - INTO THE
REGION, RESULTING IN SIMILAR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY/SATURDAY COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GULF SEA BREEZE
BY THE COAST WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING IT
FROM MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY
THE REST OF THE MONTH, AS THE EASTERN END OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
OVER US AND ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO ALMOST UPPER 90S
INLAND AND LOW 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS WILL TREND MORE
TOWARDS THE LOW 90S ON AVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
STEERING FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 2.0" SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A FRONT WILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL GENERALLY KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST, NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND STORMS, LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY WITHIN TRAINING OR SLOW
MOVING STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES PEAKING AROUND 103-108 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION, HOWEVER
MAINTAINED PROB30S FOR MOST OF THE SITES, JUST PUSHED BACK THE
TIMING SLIGHTLY. MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST
WILL LIKELY BE MADE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS TO THE TAF
SITES, WHERE NEW PROB30S ARE IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF RAIN/CONVECTION,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE AND MORE. WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS OTHERWISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EVERY DAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON, AND TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
COULD WET MOST AREAS THIS WEEK. LOWEST DAILY RH VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 45 TO 55 PERCENT TODAY AND 55 TO 65 PERCENT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JAX
AVIATION...JAX
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