856
FXUS64 KLIX 172204
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
SHORT TERM
INITIAL WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL ZONE HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ONLY
MODEST LIGHT RAIN THAT ACCOMPANIED THE PASSAGE. RAPID VEERING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE
RECOVERY FOR MARINE LAYER ADVECTION. LOW CLOUD DECK LIKELY TO
LOWER TO DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN ON WHEN THE PROCESS
ACTUALLY ONSETS. AS A RESULT, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY ISSUE ONE THIS EVENING. A WARM AND HUMID
DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AS THE PLAINS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS.
LONG TERM
STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ARCTIC COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY STILL APPEARS LIMITED IN NATURE DUE TO
SHALLOW BUT DYNAMIC INSTABILITY IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. COLDEST MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY, BUT AS
WAS ANTICIPATED AND MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT, ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW EXPECTED DUE TO THE SHARPNESS OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. ADVECTION NEUTRALIZES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE EPISODIC MINIMUMS OCCURS MOSTLY ON RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND DRAINAGE TRAJECTORIES. ARCTIC AIR FLUSHES OUT RAPIDLY
MONDAY WITH A RELATIVELY RAPID WARMING TREND AHEAD OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK SHOULD COTNINUE AT KMCB, KHDC, AND KBTR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. TONIGHT, ADVECTION FOG WILL DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 08Z, AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR
LESS, AND CEILINGS OF 500 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW AS THE FOG BEGINS TO LIFT. 32
MARINE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE RISK OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW
BEFORE CLEARING. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, AND A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
POSSIBLY GALE FORE WIND CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH, BUT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH WINDS AND
SEAS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
32
DECISION SUPPORT
DSS CODE: GREEN.
DEPLOYED: NONE.
ACTIVATION: NONE.
ACTIVITIES: NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OR
EXCESSIVE RAIN.
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR
EXCESSIVE RAIN; DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 52 65 59 64 / 20 0 70 90
BTR 54 67 61 64 / 0 0 60 90
ASD 54 65 60 66 / 10 0 30 80
MSY 57 67 62 67 / 10 0 30 80
GPT 55 64 58 67 / 10 0 30 70
PQL 56 65 58 68 / 20 0 20 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
24/RR
32/PG
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