380
FXUS64 KLIX 181037
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
537 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
LOCALLY STRONG AND CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE I-59 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE AREA-WIDE
COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THESE DAILY
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND/OR PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NEAR TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR TODAY SOMEWHAT, AS NBM NUMBERS ARE
COMING A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH MAV/MET. WHILE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CAN'T BE ENTIRELY PRECLUDED ANYWHERE IN THE CWA TODAY,
THE BATON ROUGE AREA AND POINTS TO THE WEST HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL
THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS
PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW JUST TO OUR WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN EXTENDS WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WERE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST, SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A CONFLUENT
ZONE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING AS A BROAD AREA OF
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8 RANGE, IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS WE HAD ON SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE A TOUCH LESS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN THE SOUNDINGS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND AN ISOLATED THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. TO BE HONEST,
CURRENT FORECAST POPS FOR BOTH DAYS LOOK A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE,
AT LEAST 10 PERCENT OR SO TODAY, BUT THAT ISN'T A BIG ENOUGH
CHANGE TO CHASE. WILL SEE HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT, BUT THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WILL PROBABLY NEED LOWERED ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO
THE AREA AND SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT, SO HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENTIRELY REASONABLE, BUT 80 PERCENT AT
BTR SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH FOR THIS PATTERN, BY PROBABLY 20 PERCENT.
WILL HOLD FOR NOW, AS NEIGHBORS GRIDS HAVEN'T DEPARTED FROM NBM
EITHER.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ONE COULD PROBABLY
GET AWAY WITH USING PERSISTENCE RATHER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORKWEEK. CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE THE MAIN FACTORS IN ANY DEPARTURE FROM
GUIDANCE, AND THOSE WILL CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE H5
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. WITHIN THE FLOW
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THAT WILL
HELP GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AWAY FROM A BIT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST. THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST MODEST POPS FOR COASTAL MS. AT THIS
JUNCTURE, THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONTINUED
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BTR AREA WHERE THERE
COULD BE SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PWATS ARE A ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH 1.5-1.8" WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AGAIN, THIS PATTERN PRETTY MUCH LOCKS
IN AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
LOWER, BUT STILL AROUND CLIMO. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT NEAR KMCB IN
THE LAST HOUR, BUT EVERYONE ELSE IS VFR AT THIS POINT. DO EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING AS CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE ONLY TERMINAL THE THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IS AT KBTR, WHERE PROB30 WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE
AFTERNOON. THREAT WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALSO
WILL HAVE A THREAT OF LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD SUNRISE
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY AT KMCB (IFR OR LOWER).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING WINDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION, HE
CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND WAVES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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