054
FXUS64 KLIX 271632
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE WEEK. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR. WITH MOSTLY
SATURATED SOILS, HIGH RAINFALL RATES EVEN OVER SHORT PERIODS
COULD OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
RESULT IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A STALLED MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING
(ABUNDANT MOISTURE, HIGH PWS, DECENT INSTABILITY, ETC.). SO, THE
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT, WITH RATES AROUND 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. PONDING OF LOW-LYING ROADS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME WATER
OVER ROADWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS (40-
60MPH) COULD BE POSSIBLE. MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL WEATHER-WISE AS ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY RIDGING DOMINATE
THE PATTERN. AS A RESULT, DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. POPS ARE AROUND 30-50% EACH
DAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER
IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT GUSTY WINDS
(40- 60MPH) COULD BE POSSIBLE. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR THESE
GROUPS. WIND SHIFTS GREATER THAN 30 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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