106
FXUS64 KLIX 280449
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1149 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT LOUISIANA
PARISHES.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL START WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MOST SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
A GOOD PORTION OF WED. BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTING THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD BY LATE IN THE DAY WED. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DUE TO THE STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COLD POOLING
AND FORCING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH THEM. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME RAIN FROM THIS WED EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT
WEAKENS. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PRODUCE SH/TS AFTER WED. THESE STORMS MOVING
IN FOR LATE WED WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HEAT AND BOUANCY THAT
IT WILL PROVIDE, SO A SEVERE STORM IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THESE.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK AT THE MOMENT AND THAT LOOKS TO SUFFICE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES IS ALMOST
ZONAL WITH ONE LEG OF THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND THE NEXT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS. TO
THE WEST, TROUGHS SHOULD BE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. BOTH OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE RUNS AGREE ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT INTO THE GULF. THE
TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST IS ACTING AS THE KICKER FOR
THAT TROUGH, AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS US. RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
REBUILDING INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE ALREADY
TAKEN THE EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT, KNOCKING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN BY
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY, AND IT MAY BE MORE THAN THAT, IF
WE DON'T GET MUCH SUNSHINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 1.6 RANGE ON THURSDAY (90TH PERCENTILE), SO THERE'S
STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECTATION WOULD BE FOR PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AND
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRIOR TO THE DRIER AIR
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION BEYOND
THAT POINT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. CURRENT NBM DETERMINISTIC NUMBERS FOR
THURSDAY ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. BY
FRIDAY, THE GFS OPERATIONAL NUMBERS ARE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN EVEN THE WARMEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBER, AND ARE PROBABLY TOO
WARM CONSIDERING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. FROM THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY ONWARD, THE OPERATIONAL GFS, ECMWF AND NBM DETERMINISTIC
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A MIX OF IFR, MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR
AGAIN BY MID MORNING. THIS SAME CYCLE WILL REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT,
MOSTLY LIKELY JUST AS EARLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
CENTERED EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY
HAZARDOUS LIMITS AT 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST, POSSIBLY BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND A
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page