666
FXUS64 KLIX 291733
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS IN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
- WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW, ONE OR TWO
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY, PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. WATERSPOUTS AND/OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- THE HEAT THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE LOW, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
SOME AREAS COULD STILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS/WORK SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. NHC
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY LOW (10%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, IT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE LA AND S MS
SUNDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.
OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW, BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS
COULD STILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AS THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. FOR
COMPARISON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR NEW ORLEANS INDICATE DCAPE OF
AROUND 500-600 J/KG WHILE IT'S NEAR OR OVER 1000 J/KG NEAR BATON
ROUGE.
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED, BUT A FEW OF
THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW. HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE VALUES WILL BE LOCATED GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR, WHERE THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PW OF 2.2-2.3" BY MIDDAY. WITH THOSE VALUES BEING AROUND
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME HIGH INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES. THE SAVING GRACE,
WILL BE THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY STORM SPENDS IN ONE LOCATION.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE AREA REMAINS OUTLOOKED WITH A MARGINAL
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING, AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE STORM MOTIONS. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY
SIGNS OF MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING OVER A GIVEN AREA IN QUICK
SUCCESSION, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY INCREASED THREAT.
THE WEAK LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SERVES TO WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW. IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THE
LOCAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY
IN THE 1.9-2" RANGE, OR AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. WITH THE
STRONGEST RIDGING FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD STILL APPROACH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS FIRING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGS MORE OF THE SAME AS AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES LOOK
TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA, THOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND SPECIFIC DETAILS OF EACH ONE.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND MAY COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER, IF IT DOES NOT, IT WOULD ARRIVE SOME TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BE
ABSORBED BY A SECOND DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS.
THAT ONE LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER PLUME OF INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
AND FINALLY, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE (THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TS DOLLY) COULD BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
BY LATE FRIDAY, POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.
NONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT
THREATS AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS CONCERNED. BUT
REGARDLESS OF THAT, WILL NEED TO MONITOR EACH DISTURBANCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AS THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES
IN SOME STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY LOW END
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RESTRICTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS BEFORE 18Z WILL BE AT GPT AND ASD
WHERE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. ELSEWHERE, ANY
IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN WINDS AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS VARYING BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY THROUGH TODAY. THEN
WINDS SWITCH TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY BUT MAINTAIN THE
SAME 5-10 KT MAGNITUDE STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH WINDS
AND WAVES HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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