383
FXUS64 KLIX 111821
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
121 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT AS THE WEEK CONTINUES STORMS WILL
BECOME HARDER TO COME BY. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW SO WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING, AND HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
- HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TIDAL LAKES BUT SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW 108 TODAY AND TOMORROW. LATER THIS WEEK THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 AND HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST APPRECIABLE CHANCES OF RAIN
THIS WEEK AND THE CHANCES AREN'T REALLY HIGH TO BEGIN WITH. ANY
CONVECTION THAT WOULD FORM WOULD BE THE SEABREEZE/DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS BUT THERE IS RATHER POOR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT WITH
VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES. STILL PLENTY OF CAPE AND
SUFFICIENT PW TO GO AROUND SO ISOLATED ONES ARE DEFINITELY ON THE
TABLE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD STILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EVEN MORE THAT WILL REALLY CLAMP
DOWN ON CONVECTION CHANCES, SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO
HEAT. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR NOW,
AS IT'S EXTREMELY BORDERLINE AND ISOLATED (MAINLY AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN). BUT AS THE WEEK CONTINUES THE
CHANCES OF HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INCREASING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
DESPITE THIS WESTWARD SHIFT, WE WILL REMAIN BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS, WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, AND SUBSIDENCE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE,
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGELY CONFINED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS
ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY EACH DAY, WITH POPS GENERALLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT
INSOLATION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. AFTERNOON MIXING MAY LOWER DEWPOINTS
SOMEWHAT MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE NBM, WHICH COULD TEMPER PEAK
HEAT INDICES WHILE ALSO ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER.
EVEN SO, HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE,
AND HEAT HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. LITTLE MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THAT COULD IMPACT VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS, SO KEPT THE
PROB30S FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT THERE IS FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS OUTSIDE SAID ISOLATED STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEK, WITH WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT 5 TO 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEK. CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INCREASINGLY ISOLATED LATER THIS
WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY BASED
ONES OR RIDING THE EDGE OF THE HIGH.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL
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