647
FXUS64 KLIX 270508
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FIRE SPREAD. RESIDENTS SHOULD OBEY ALL BURN BANS IN PLACE
AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES OUTDOORS EVEN
IN AREAS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE.
- ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL EASE TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED RISE ONCE AGAIN OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
CAUSING ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
OCTOBER WILL COME TO AND END AND THINGS WILL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
DEPARTMENT. THIS LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON QUE AS A SYSTEM GETS
ORGANIZED BY FRIDAY OVER TX AND MOVES NE BRINGING SOME SH/TS OVER
OUR AREA EVENTUALLY. WE WILL SPEAK MORE TO THAT IN THE EXTENDED.
THE SHORT TERM IS WHERE THIS WILL ALL COME TOGETHER TO BRING THE
RAIN TO THE AREA. WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WILL INCLUDE TROPICAL
STORM VANCE IN THE EASTPAC NEAR MEXICO. FIRST, THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS ALREADY GETTING SOME UPPER SHEAR, BUT THIS WILL
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT
GETS RIPPED TO SHREDS(NOT A MET TERM). THE UPPER WINDS AT ABOUT
130W OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
AROUND THE BAHA AREA AND THE LITTLE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE NO
MATCH FOR THIS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE A BUCKEL(SHORT
WAVE) IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO TX BY THU INTO
FRI. THE MOISTURE FROM VANCE WILL BE TRANSPORTED IN THIS FLOW AND
BROUGHT NEWARD. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
SINCE WE DON'T HAVE A GOOD SAMPLE OF ALL THE FEATURES THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CAUSE THIS TO OCCUR. BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE IS
UNDOUBTFULLY IN TACT IN THAT THERE WILL BE A SFC LOW FORM FROM THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE INTERACTION AND THIS LOW WILL KICK
OUT TO THE NE. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE LACKING AT ANY LEVEL AS WE
MOVE INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER TX BUT IS MOVING
THIS WAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN BY WED AS A
SFC LOW NEAR FL INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE HIGH TO ITS NORTH.
EASTERLY TO NE WINDS WILL REMAIN, BUT WILL RISE A BIT BY WED AND
THU. THIS IS NOT NORMALLY AN ISSUE, BUT WE ARE MOVING INTO A KING
TIDE CYCLE(ADDS TO HIGH TIDE LEVELS AND TAKES AWAY AT LOW TIDE
LEVELS DURING A SPRING TIDE CYCLE), SO THIS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT INTO THU
AT HIGH TIDE TIMES. QUICK GENERAL EXPLANATION, SPRING TIDES OCCUR
TWICE A MONTH AND IS WHEN THE SUN, EARTH AND MOON ARE IN
ALIGNMENT. A KING TIDE IS A SPRING TIDE BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT OF WHEN THE MOONS ORBIT BRINGS IT CLOSEST TO EARTH,
WHICH ONLY OCCUR 3 TO 4 TIMES A YEAR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
GOING INTO HALLOWEEN WEEKEND OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
SLIGHTLY WETTER TO START THE PERIOD. ALOFT AN H5 TROUGH/VORT WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TS VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBALS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF WITH GFS HAVING THE HIGHER SIGNAL OVER THE
ECMWF. THAT SAID, ECM IS NOT DRY SO WE WILL KEEP MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
GOING INTO MONDAY THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT WITH A BIT MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THAT SAID, LOOKING UPSTREAM A BROADER AND MORE ROBUST UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
IMPACTS LOCALLY WOULD LIKELY BE FELT JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
PERIOD, BUT WE WILL END THE PERIOD WATCHING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL POPS AND A LIKELY COOL DOWN BEHIND. SPEAKING OF
TEMPS, THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN STEADY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS MORE SURFACE MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION, EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH THE REGION ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PERSIST OVER THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS AS ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS PERSIST. THESE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 8 FEET CONTINUE.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ551-553-554-
570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ553-554-570-
572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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