134
FXUS64 KLIX 181100
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING HEAT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND COULD APPROACH HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I55 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. EVENTHOUGH CHANCES
OF STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW, THOSE THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
HEAT WILL BE OUR MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR TODAY. WE WILL LET
THIS ONE END BEFOR ISSUING FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AMBIENT TEMPS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF WE SEE A CENTURY MARK AT SOME
POINT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ALL BROUGHT ABOUT BY
STRONG SUPPRESSION AND A WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
THE NEXT THING TO DISCUSS IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE SE GULF.
WHAT IS BEING LOOKED AT IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED ROUGLY
250 MILES SSW OF TAMPA BAY FL AT MIDNIGHT THIS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS OBVIOUSLY CYCLONIC BUT SO IS THE UPPER FLOW,
AND WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LOOKED AT, IT SHOWS A TUTT LOW
INTERACTING WITH THIS SFC FEATURE. OVER THE COMING DAYS, MODELS
DIFFER, NOT ONLY WITH EACH OTHER BUT EVEN WITH RUN TO RUN WITHIN
THEIR OWN PHYSICS PACKS WITH WHERE THIS TUTT LOW WILL BE OVER THE
COMING DAYS. ONE THING HAS REMAINED THE SAME THOUGH, AND THAT IS
IT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE LOW LEVEL SFC CIRCULATION CAUSING
MODERATE SHEAR OVER IT AT FIRST, THEN WEAKENED SHEAR BY THE START
OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A BROAD SFC LOW TO DEVELOP(VIA RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY). TODAY, THIS FEATURE RACES UP THE WEST COAST OF FL
LANDING IN THE NE GULF BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE IT
SLOWS TO A CRAWL WHILE MAINTAINING SOME NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A
WEAK SFC LOW AS IT WAITS ON A FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TO BRING
WHATEVER REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SE CONUS IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 31N 137W OVER THE PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AT THE MOMENT, SO ONLY
CRUDE SATELLITE PROFILE DATA CAN BE USED. BUT WE SHOULD SEE THIS
GET SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK AT THE EARLIEST SUNDAY
7PM(00Z MONDAY) ALONG THE NW COAST. THIS WOULD BE THE EARLIEST
LOOK AT THE TIMING AND WHERE THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE TO RETRIEVE
THE NE GULF MESS. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING A SMALL INCREASE(~30%) OF RAIN. THE
STORMS THAT FORM LATE IN THE DAY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH. AND SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF HEAT ENERGY AND ONLY SEVERAL
STORMS AROUND, EACH WILL NOT HAVE TO COMPETE FOR THE HEAT AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BEING STRONG/SEVERE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX/LA. THIS
ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 90S WITH A POSSIBLE RUN AT 10. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
START IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S BUT BY MID WEEK WE COULD SEE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 110. SO HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED EARLY
THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS MID WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OUTLOOKED BY NHC. THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME OF THIS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE IS VERSUS THE TROUGH THAT STARTS TO DIG DOWN
MID NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME KIND OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING MOSTLY TO THE EAST NEAR FLORIDA BUT THERE ARE SOME
MEMBERS HINTING IT COULD BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS IS, MOISTURE PULLED IN FROM
HERE MAY HELP INCREASE THE SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WHICH
COULD GIVE LOCALIZED RELIEF FOR THE HEAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPROACHING 15
KNOTS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED TODAY BUT ISOLATED STORMS MAY REACH THE
EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE EASTERN-GULF UPPER LOW
EDGES CLOSER, BUT MOST OF THE MARINE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY MID
WEEK, WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE MODESTLY IN WATERS EAST OF THE MISS RIVER AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MARINE CONVECTION IS NOT
PRESENTLY EXPECTED.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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