814
FXUS64 KLIX 170658
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
158 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A VERY STRONG AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD AND DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVER THIS PERIOD, AND THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR, HUMIDITY VALUES LOW, AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-MARCH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS GIVEN THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES AND
GREENING UP OF PLANTS THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SOUTH OF I-10, LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND WIND CHILLS WILL COOL INTO
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED DRY FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SLIDE THROUGH ON TUESDAY, AND THIS WILL HELP THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 30S OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE 40S
SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST, BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE PEARL AND
PASCAGOULA RIVER DRAINAGES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE DOWN
THE VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURES
AS THE HEART OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
HIGHS WILL STILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
DEEP LAYER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A STRONG
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A
BROAD AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY
SUBISDENT PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL EFFECTIVELY
KEEP CONDITIONS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BE A DUE TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS, A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT, BUT A WEAK
ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL FORM ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND OVERALL HUMIDITY
TO FEED BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH HIGHS RISING FROM THE 70S ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DEWPOINTS RISE ON
THE BACK OF THE PERSISENT ONSHORE FLOW. READINGS WILL RISE FROM THE
40S ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
OVERALL, A VERY BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS AT MSY, HUM, AND NEW. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY EASE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 12Z AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER EASING OF THE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AND FALL TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO EASE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN VERY LIGHT. THESE MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page