970
FXUS64 KLIX 042323
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LOW, ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MOST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100 TO
108 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE MS GULF COAST CONTINUE AS WELL AS CLOUD DEBRIS
FROM THIS CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA.
THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR ONE LESS HEAT AND TWO SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
AS AN EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THAT SAID, AS WE SAW THIS MORNING EVEN
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. PWATS AROUND 2.2" ON AVERAGE WILL
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH SOME
INSTANTANEOUS RATES APPROACHING 6" PER HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WITH SUCH A MOISTURE COLUMN SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LIMITED, BUT WHERE THERE STILL COULD BE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IN THE WIDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
EVENTUALLY, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY. INVERSELY WITH
MORE LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE AGAIN INTO
THE LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MIDDLE 90S ON MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WE WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO
POTENTIALLY NEEDING HEAT HEADLINES FOR LABOR DAY. FOR NOW, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE RATHER BORDERLINE, SO AT THIS JUNCTURE WE WILL
ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL AND SEE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF
ACTUAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE JUSTIFIED. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ANOTHER UPPER WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD UNDER AN H5 RIDGE SPREADING EAST FROM
THE OZARKS TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. WITH MOST OF THE REGION SQUEEZED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES,
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM,
HOWEVER, FAR FROM ZERO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AS THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO HEADLINE CRITERIA.
(FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. FOR
TODAY, THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GENERALLY WANING SO TOOK OUT
PROB30S OUTSIDE OF HUM SINCE WE WILL BE LOSING DAYTIME HEATING
SOON AND ANY CURRENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY ANEMIC TO BEGIN
WITH. BUT LEFT IT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANY TERMINALS IMPACTED
BY STORMS WOULD SEE VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND TIDAL LAKES. MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS GOING INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS IN AND AROUND CONVECTION. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF
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