203
FXUS64 KLIX 181025
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
525 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH TODAY.
MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER IF YOU
INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE SPORTS AND
FESTIVALS.
- MOST VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 1/4 MILE, SO A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT, PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
VERY ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY AROUND RIVER SYSTEMS.
- A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A LONGER LINE OF
SH/TS ALONG IT. AT THIS MOMENT, THERE IS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ALONG IT AS WELL. BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WITH TIME. THE FRONT
GETS TO OUR NW CORNER OF ZONES AROUND 7PM TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
STILL ONGOING. A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH BASE
WILL START TO FIRE OFF SH/TS OVER SE TX AROUND 10PM TODAY. THE
S/W WILL PRODUCE A LIFTING RR QUAD FROM SOUTH TX TO NEAR HOUSTON
AROUND THAT SAME TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ENE ALONG THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL INTERFACE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM LAKE CHARLES TO BOGALUSA AROUND 2AM
SUNDAY GIVING US THE BEST SHOT OF RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO
MODERATE. THE SFC FRONT WILL BE OVER THE GULF BY THIS TIME AND
ONE CAN SEE FROM THE TIMING OF THIS, THAT THIS S/W PULSE WILL NOT
BE SFC BASED. AS THIS AREA GETS SQUEEZED VERTICALLY, IT WILL LOSE
THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE ANY MODERATE RAIN AND WILL RAPIDLY BEGIN
DECAYING AND BE ALL BUT GONE BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF
THIS OCCURS AS VERY DRY COOL AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY INTO
THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN
THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY. MONDAY, WINDS WILL EASE A BIT AND TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS WILL FEEL QUITE NICE AND
VERY SPRING LIKE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A LARGELY DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY, A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TEXAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
LARGELY CONFINED TO 700MB AND ABOVE AND PWATS WILL ONLY CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A LACK OF MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -5.0C/KM WILL KILL
OFF ANY INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
TUESDAY MORNING WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTENSIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD TO BECOME CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
VERY STABLE AND DRY. DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS AND INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT MOST CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. ONLY SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS EXPECTED
TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. OVERALL, A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN THE CARDS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA, AND A MORE DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
THE AREA WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100
KNOT JET STREAK, AND THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALSO COOL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 6.5C/KM. THIS WILL ALLOW SBCAPE TO INCREASE TO 1500 TO 2000
J/KG BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PUMPING LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL
FINALLY GET TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 80S. A CHANCE POP OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT REFLECTS THIS RISK WELL. FORTUNATELY, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR EXPECTED, SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE. THIS WILL BE SOME MUCH NEEDED AND BENEFICIAL RAIN AS THE AREA
IS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BE A CONSTANT TRANSITION OF WX FROM NW TO SE. WE
WILL START WITH THIS MORNING AS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I10-12 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS, MCB COULD FALL TO
IFR TEMPORARILY AND POSSIBLY SOME MVFR ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED
LINE. THIS WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR ALL SITES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SOME BR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOWEST CIGS THIS MORNING AND WILL
ALSO BE FLEETING. A LINE OF SH/TS WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM
MCB TO BTR AROUND 7PM/00Z AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE FROM THERE
BRINGING CIGS TO MVFR AND FINALLY TO IFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT,
TRANSITIONING SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AT 10 TO
15 KT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THESE
CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST INTO TUESDAY BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED. WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
AND EASE A BIT TO AROUND 10-15 KT, POSSIBLY REMAINING THAT WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ529-531>536-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ541-543-551-553-554-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ570-572-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ531>536-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ543-551-553-554-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ572-575.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...TE
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