603
FXUS64 KLIX 121805
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1205 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT.
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
AND A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MORNING FOG SATURDAY AM, WHICH MAY BECOME
DENSE IN AREAS HINDERING VISIBILITIES. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 BUT IT'S MORE LIKELY TO
BE PATCHY IN NATURE DUE TO A LITTLE MORE WIND.
OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE AND
CONTINUE A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW, ELEVATING NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA (FUELING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AM).
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PASSING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS MILD WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT
MOVES FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY, YIELDING RAIN CHANCES AROUND 10-20%. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND 30-60% FOR LS
PARISHES NORTH OF I-10 AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN MS COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD ARCTIC AIR
THAT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STRONGER AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND COLD, POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST OF
THE WINTER SO FAR. BREEZY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RUSH OF COLD AIR
AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GULF SHORELINE SUNDAY, LEADING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AT THE COAST WITH READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. BREEZY WINDS
WILL LOWER THE WIND CHILLS TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AREA WIDE,
LIKELY REQUIRING COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD ARCTIC AIR
THAT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STRONGER AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND COLD, POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST OF
THE WINTER SO FAR. BREEZY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RUSH OF COLD AIR
AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GULF SHORELINE SUNDAY, LEADING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AT THE COAST WITH READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. BREEZY WINDS
WILL LOWER THE WIND CHILLS TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AREA WIDE,
LIKELY REQUIRING COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD DAY MONDAY, A TRANSITION TO A WARMING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO THE
EAST AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN
WARMING TEMPS, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND BETTER CHANCES FOR DAILY BOUTS
OF MORNING FOG.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW TERMINALS WHERE HIGH-
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AS SCATTERED SPRINKLE/SHOWERS PASS
OVER. THESE TRENDS, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS, CONTINUE UNTIL THIS
EVENING WHEN LOW STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMSY, KNEW, AND KHUM, THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
CHANCE OF LIFR OR AIRFIELD MINIMUMS BEING MET OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, SOME BECOMING DENSE AT
TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES KEEP SEAS LOW THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WATERS. AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN
THE MARITIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT RUSHES
TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OFFSHORE WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS
AND SEAS PUSHING TOWARD 5 TO 8 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE EAST AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK SETTING
UP A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 53 70 45 52 / 10 30 80 10
BTR 56 74 49 57 / 10 30 60 20
ASD 53 73 50 60 / 10 20 40 10
MSY 58 75 54 62 / 10 20 30 20
GPT 56 71 51 62 / 10 20 40 20
PQL 52 72 49 60 / 10 20 40 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
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