877
FXUS64 KLIX 150135
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
835 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 828 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS,
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT CERTAINLY WON'T RULE OUT
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN AREA OR AN EXTENSION IN TIME.
AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EVENTUAL STORM TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER. RW
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF STATES IS QUICKLY
ERODING ALOFT TODAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. THE BASE OF THAT TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS/APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS LATITUDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWA SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE MORE
DAY TO HOLD BACK CONVECTION TO VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON.
THAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT, HELPING PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PW'S WILL BE DRASTICALLY
INCREASING FROM NEAR 1.8" CURRENTLY INTO THE 2.2-2.4" RANGE,
WHICH IS NEAR OR ABOVE THE UPPER END OF MID-JUNE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. CAMS SUGGEST A RAMP UP OF
COVERAGE STARTING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN SW MISSISSIPPI.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED COMPARED TO DAYTIME VALUES, BUT THE
VERY MOIST COLUMN AND WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED TRAINING
OR REPEATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE WPC SLIGHT RISK AREA,
DEPICTING SOUTHWEST MS AND ADJACENT LA PARISHES, ALIGNS WILL WITH
HREF SUITE AS WELL AS GLOBAL MODELS. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS.
TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FOCUSED ZONE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE, STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME. AREAL 1-3" SEEMS PRETTY LIKELY NORTH OF I-12 AND
POCKETS OF 5-8" THAT REFS MAX 6HR QPF IS THE GREATEST CONCERN.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD
SCALE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT ROUNDS THE
THE TROUGH AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA, HEIGHT FALLS WILL AGAIN
ENHANCE BUOYANCE AND THUS NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
AIRMASS REMAINING SATURATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WHERE ANY STORMS TRAIN OR REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BUT LEANS TOWARDS
CONTINUED WET PATTERN IN GENERAL. THE BIGGEST INTEREST PEAK FALLS ON
PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO THE SABINE PASS BY THE START OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS WHATEVER FORM OF
ORGANIZATION THIS FEATURE IS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. COULD SEE A SCENARIO
WHERE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS EARLY THIS WEEK, THEN THIS SYSTEM COMES
IN AND DUMPS EVEN MORE WHICH RESULTS IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH RIVER FLOODING. OBVIOUSLY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, BUT MAY NOT
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR TOO LONG AT KBTR. AREA OF CONVECTION APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES KBTR, BUT COULD CERTAINLY GET
SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THAT AREA. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
AND EVEN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
REFIRING BEYOND 06Z. PROBABLY WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING AND AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW, ANY USE OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE PROB30 UNTIL WE GET A
MORE CONFIDENT HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. PRIMARILY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST
CELLS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AS A
RESULT, A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, WITH
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
SEAS NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WHILE THE SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES REMAIN CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FEET. BY TUESDAY, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE NEAR THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY
STALL, BRINGING A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WINDS MAY ALSO TREND A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW GULF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO THEN NORTHWARD NEAR THE TEXAS
COAST BY MID-WEEK. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE WEAK LOW TO THE WEST
AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM
EAST TO WEST OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-076-079>086.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MSZ068>071.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...ME
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