921
FXUS64 KLIX 082250
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
550 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN OFFSHORE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS AND
MOST OF THE TIDAL LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS RESPECTIVELY.
- HURRICANE ISAIAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST,
FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER AS A HURRICANE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERN LA COASTAL AREAS PLUS INLAND
JACKSON COUNTY AND ALL OF HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES MS ARE
UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND COASTAL JACKSON COUNTY MS IS
UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING. MUCH OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST LA AND
COASTAL MS ARE UNDER STORM SURGE WARNINGS.
- SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH, BUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND DANGEROUS WAVES/SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
FORECAST PRODUCTS (ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS) UPDATED TO
INCORPORATE 4 PM CDT NHC ADVISORY AND DATA FOR HURRICANE ISAIAS.
INTENSITY IS NOW CATEGORY 2 AND FORECASTED CENTER-OF-TRACK
LANDFALL IS AT PENSACOLA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH MOST OF THE
IMPACTS OCCURRING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE USED AS A DAY
OF PREPARATION FOR AREAS WITHIN WARNINGS. TROUGHING OVER TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA, ALONG WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL FORCE THE STORM NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36ISH
HOURS TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE, TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION IN HURRICANE
LOCAL STATEMENTS AND TCVLIX. A FLOOD WATCH MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE STORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH ANY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ISAIAS (OR REMNANTS) WILL BE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND NO LONGER AN ISSUE FOR OUR AREA. UPPER AND SURFACE
HIGHS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS DRY AIR FLOODS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THESE READINGS WILL
STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY AT VFR. BEGINNING IN THE TIMEFROM OF 12Z
TO 15Z TOMORROW, KHUM/KMSY/KNEW/KGPT BEGIN TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ACCOUNTED FOR WITH PROB30 CODING. FROM 15Z TO 18Z AT ALL
TERMINALS, NOTABLE IS INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20KT RANGE
AND GUSTS IN THE 30KT RANGE THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIND SHEAR COULD BE AN ISSUE AT THE END O FHTE PERIOD AT
KGPT AND KASD
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN THAT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS, COMBINED WITH THE VERY INITIAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH ISAIAS.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF HURRICANE ISAIAS, WINDS ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
FORCE DRIVING HEAVY SEAS AND SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE EASING.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ070-076-078-091.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ058-077-084-087-093-095-097-098.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR LAZ070-076-078-091.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ529-531-533.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ532-535-536-554-557-575-577.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ534-541-543-551-553-570-572.
MS...HURRICANE WARNING FOR MSZ088.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MSZ083>087.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR MSZ086>088.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR MSZ085.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ531-533.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ535-536-554-557-575-577.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.
SHORT TERM...RW/DS
LONG TERM....RW/DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page