576
FXUS64 KLIX 232342
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN/MAUREPAS AGAIN TODAY FOR FORECAST HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 100'S - TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN TO BE
OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS TODAY!
- MONITORING POSSIBLE COMPLEX OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WITH GREATER FOCUS/CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55, INCLUDING
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. STAY UPDATED!
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
STARTING OFF WITH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BOUNCING OFF OF THE
MORNING UPDATE, WHAT IS LEFT OF THE ANVIL CANOPY CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ALONG PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE, AND HAVE NOTICED VIA GOES-16 CH2 TRENDS THAT WE'RE
STILL HEATING UP PLENTY ENOUGH FOR LOW-LEVEL CU DEVELOPMENT. KEPT
THE SAME GENERAL EDITS TO TODAY IN PLACE FROM THE MORNING UPDATE,
INCLUDING BUMPING DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES, WHICH IN TURN LOWERED
FORECAST MAX HEAT INDICIES. AGAIN, NOT PLANNING ON TOUCHING THE
HEAT ADVISORY AS WE COULD DISTINCTLY STILL SEE A FEW
ISOLATED/POCKETS OF 108 AND WANT TO EMPHASIZE THE RISK TO
SENSITIVE GROUPS - CAUTION IS ADVISED IF YOU PLAN ON BEING
OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS TODAY.
OTHERWISE, WESTERLY MEAN 0-1KM FLOW PER HRRR GUIDANCE IN
CONJUNCTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
SKEW THE CIRCULATION EAST, CAUSING SOME GOOD CONFLUENCE FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE. KEPT THE SAME UPTICK OF 15%
POPS MAINLY FOR THE RIVER PARISHES INCLUDING METRO NOLA. NO MAJOR
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED, JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
GOING BEYOND INTO TONIGHT, GLANCING AT VERIFICATION SHOWS WE WERE
ACTUALLY A BIT TOO COOL WITH LOWS, NOTICING A RECORD WARM LOW SET
AT KBTR OF 80, A GOOD 5-ISH DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. HEDGED
THE RIGHT DIRECTION BY IMPLEMENTING THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE, BUT
COULD STILL BE TOO COOL IN SPOTS. SEEMS LIKE WE'VE HIT THE TIME OF
THE YEAR WHEN WE LOOSE THE COOLDOWN EFFICIENCY OVERNIGHT, WITH IT
STILL RATHER WARM/MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF.
WEDNESDAY, WE START WITH A BRIEF SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTING A
594DM RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS/NORTHERN MX. WITH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THE NE AND E PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT AND, THE PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT/BOUNDARY -
THIS SPELLS 1 THING: MCS. RECENT HRRR AND REFS OVERVIEW FROM THE
12Z SUITE SHOWS AN ONGOING MCS/COMPLEX OVER OK LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A H5 MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/PVA
PROVIDING DYNAMIC SUPPORT. EVENTUAL COLD POOLING WILL AID TO
SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT INTO MS BEYOND MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE FOCUSED AXIS/MAIN THREAT WITH THIS INITIAL
COMPLEX LIKELY TO OUR NORTH, WHAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED IS 1) THE
SIZE/MAGNITUDE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD POOL, IF LARGER, COULD DRIVE
THE COMPLEX AXIS MORE FROM SW TO SSW IMPACTING SE MS AND SW AL,
ULTIMATELY IMPACTING COASTAL MS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED, AS THIS COMPLEX COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS
(MAINLY SUB-SEVERE BUT COULD HAVE SEVERE SEGMENTS, ESPECIALLY OVER
MARINE AREAS).
BEYOND THAT GOING INTO LATE-WEEK, THE UPSTREAM FLOW NORTH OF THE
RIDGE STRAIGHTENS OUT/BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND WE LOSE THE NW FLOW
ALOFT, MEANING WE'LL START TO WARM UP AND DRY OUT (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE
LAKE/SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON). HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
HOT CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. KLG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
CONTINUING ON FROM THE SHORT-TERM, THE FOCUS BECOMES THE HEAT AS
WE REALLY START TO CLIMB WITH HIGHS, PROVIDING HEAT INDICIES AT OR
SURPASSING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP RIDGE ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY REGION. 594DM H5 RIDGING WILL PUSH HIGHS HIGHER INTO THE
MID 90'S, SURGING HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 108-112 RANGE, SO HEADS
UP FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND, EVEN INTO EARLY PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING MAINLY DRY. KLG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION AND A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
FORM AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. MCB, BTR, HDC,
AND ASD COULD SEE A PERIOD OF 500 TO 800 FEET CEILINGS DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS. AFTER
18Z, SOME PROB30 WORDING IS ALSO INCLUDED AS SOME STORMS COULD
FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND GPT, ASD, AND MCB. THESE
STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MCS AND COULD PRODUCE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
WEAK, MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE,
A SERIES OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MIGHT SURGE SOUTHEAST
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FROM MAINLY MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA LATER
IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING THE RISK FOR >34KT WINDS AND
WATERSPOUTS TOWARDS THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. GREATEST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE/OUT OF THE
SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MORE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ONGOING WEAK WINDS/WAVES/SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ058-064-076>078-
080-082-084-087-098-099.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...KLG
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