539
FXUS64 KLIX 091030 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
530 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, VERY NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
HOT DAYS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW,
BUT A FEW STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER GENERALLY MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST GULF. WITH THE WEAKNESS OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE ACROSS THAT REGION. HOWEVER,
WE CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAIN FREE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2.0" OR SO WILL ASSIST IN EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES...SO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF HYDRO RELATED IMPACTS, DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
GOING INTO TONIGHT ANY CONVECTION WILL REFOCUS OFFSHORE. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR IN TERMS OF POPS WITH LITTLE CHANGES NOTED IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE AREA GOING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT ON THE WETTER SIDE WITH A STRONGER QPF
SIGNAL WITHIN THE GLOBALS WITH A FEW H5 IMPULSES/VORTS PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH THE GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WYOMING SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH A WEAKER RIDGE NEAR THE BAHAMAS. IN BETWEEN, WILL BE A
WEAKNESS OR TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR INTERSTATE 40 SUNDAY
EVENING, JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MONDAY EVENING, AND BE NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY
HEAD SOUTHEAST LATER NEXT WEEK AND TO GEORGIA OR THE CAROLINAS BY
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT'S WELL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON (1.9 INCHES) WILL INCREASE
TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE (2.1 INCHES) MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN WE WERE LOOKING AT 24 HOURS
AGO. ADDITIONALLY, THE TROUGH NEVER REALLY GETS OFF THE COAST, SO
ANY MID LEVEL DRYING LOOKS SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR, WITH BOTH
THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES HOLDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT
LEAST NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE.
THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS WOULD
SIGNAL A WETTER (AND NOT AS HOT) PERIOD FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
ARE ANY INDICATION, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAY ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S, WHICH WOULD MEAN AN EARLIER START TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (BEFORE NOON) AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A CUMULATIVE SENSE COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
IN THE SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD, WITH WPC FORECASTS CURRENTLY
INDICATING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THAT PERIOD, WITH THE MORE
FAVORED PORTION BEING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WE'LL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THOSE TRENDS PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (RW)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
SPEAKING OF CONVECTION, COVERED THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PROBS MAINLY FROM 18Z-00Z. IN AND AROUND CONVECTION EXPECT REDUCED
VIS/CIGS AS WELL AS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. AS FOR WINDS, OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND CAN BE EXPECTED. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY,
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION AND
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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