590
FXUS64 KLIX 151010
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
510 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-RELATED HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN
RETURNING SUNDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
WE'VE ARE CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG A QUITE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION MID/LATE WEEK. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ONLY THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH TIME, FOLLOWING UPSTREAM CONFLUENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING EAST- COAST TROUGH, RESULTING IN A TRANSITIONING WEAK,
QUASI- ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DID TWEAK HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO FOLLOW VERIFICATION TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO
PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AIMING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUGGESTED DETERMINISTIC NBM VALUES BUT OVERALL, MID/UPPER 80'S
WILL FALL AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
ADDITIONALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE HIGH DRIFTING EAST, SURFACE TO
LOW-LEVEL MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WITH TIME WEST TO
EAST. BUT, THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME WITH TODAY LIKELY SEEING THE
AFTERNOON PBL MIXING REGIME WIN OVER MORE FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF
I-55, REMOVED JUST ENOUGH FROM THE ESTABLISHING LOW-LEVEL RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER EAST TEXAS/WEST LA. THIS MIGHT ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
MIX DOWN INTO THE 50'S BRIEFLY IN THESE EASTERN AREAS FROM
18-23Z, BUT GOING INTO SATURDAY, THE MOIST RETURN FLOW WINS OVER
WITH IT FEELING A BIT MORE HUMID AREAWIDE. KLG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BASICALLY HOLD THROUGH THE WHOLE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INLAND. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE AREA EACH DAY BUT THERE ISN'T TOO MUCH
SHEAR AVAILABLE. SO GENERALLY WE'LL BEGIN SEEING SUMMERLIKE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY TICK UP AS WE MOVE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALTHOUGH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOCALIZED STORMS COULD HELP KEEP THE
HIGHS IN CHECK IN SOME SPOTS. BL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF CYCLE. NOT ANTICIPATING MAJOR IMPACTS WITH PRIMARILY
SKC/FEW250 AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK, PROVIDING AN INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE GULF WILL PROVIDE A DAILY
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING SUNDAY,
WITH MORE NOTABLE COVERAGE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT TO
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2FT
RANGE FOR PROTECTED WATERS, TO 3-4 FT FOR OUTER GULF WATERS. KLG
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG
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