889
FXUS64 KLIX 142337
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 110S THIS WEEKEND. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AND A WATCH FOR SUNDAY.
INTO THE NEW WEEK AT LEAST HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. THE
IMPACT OF THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS; WE JUST WON'T HAVE A
CHANCE TO COOL OFF.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE, THE HEAT DOME.
EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO CONTINUE EVEN BEYOND THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERALLY, THE IMPACTS OF THE HEAT DOME ARE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES, BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS, AND LESS RAIN.
SPECIFICALLY, REGARDING TEMPERATURES, WE ARE LOOKING AT DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN INTO THE LOW 100S. AND, FACTORING
HUMIDITY INTO THE EQUATION GIVES US THE HEAT INDEX OR A FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURE. REGARDING RAINFALL, RAIN CHANCES ARE ABOUT AS CLOSE TO
0% AS WE EVER GET. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM DURING
THE DAY, BUT THEY WON'T BE COMMON. THE LACK OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
DRYER SOILS ALSO ADDS TO THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. AT NIGHT, THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE TOTAL IMPACT FOR THE COMING DAYS IS HEAT INDICIES IN THE 110-115
RANGE WHICH IS DRIVING ISSUANCE OF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
11AM-8PM SATURDAY AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH SUNDAY (WILL LIKELY UPGRADE
TO A WARNING TOMORROW). THE IMPACT IS ACCENTUATED BY WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80 BECAUSE WE JUST DON'T
HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL OFF. WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT, MAKE SURE YOU
ARE DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF COOLER AREAS
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE HEAT DOME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH ITS CENTER IS SLIDING
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THEN BACK TO THE EAST. AND BY EARLY TO MID-
WEEK THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL, FROM 15ISH
PERCENT TO 25ISH PERCENT. THE WEAKENING AND ANY ACCOMPANYING RAIN
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY, BUT
FEELS LIKE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE RANGE OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THREAT FOR
TSRA IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECASTS, BUT IS NOT ZERO FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY BEING IN CONTROL. ISOLATED NIGHTLY STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE. OVERALL, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AT OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE ANY STORMS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page