303
FXUS64 KLIX 270455
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL BE BACK FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS BEGINNING TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SEND THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL BE NO
RAIN AT ALL, BUT NUMBERS WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BRING THE HEAT OUT THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A FEW SITES THAT WILL HIT 90F FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR. THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT COMMON FOR APRIL BUT ALSO NOT
UNHEARD OF. THE EARLIEST THAT SOME OF OUR CITIES HAVE REACHED 90F
INCLUDE BATON ROUGE MARCH 2, 1909; MCCOMB APRIL 6, 1952; NEW
ORLEANS MARCH 27, 1929; GULFPORT MARCH 29, 1907. BUT, IF WE DO
REACH 90F OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THIS IS EXPECTED, IT WILL BE
THE FIRST 90F OF 2026 FOR OUR AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED NEAR MEXICO CITY AND
EXPANDED NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US FROM AZ TO LA. MORE LOCALLY
THOUGH, SHOULD REALLY BE SEEING EROSION OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS RIDGE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH BROADENS AND
AMPLIFIES. STILL NOT ENOUGH RIDGE SUPPRESSION TO BRING DOWN TEMPS
MUCH BUT COULD BRING IN SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OR RAIN BROUGHT IN FROM THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS BEST CHANCE TO KEEP
HIGHS FROM NEARING OR EXCEEDING RECORDS, WHICH IS NEAR 90 FOR THE
MOST PART.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA AND DIGS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO SOUTHEAST LA
AND SOUTHERN MS EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND SHOULD
JUST BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US, REACHING THE 4
CORNERS REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SETUP WILL FIRST LEAD TO A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK OVER THE CWA FRIDAY. THAT, COMBINED
WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL YIELD EVEN COOLER HIGHS. WILL BE
THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK THAT HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF POST FRONTAL PW UNDER
1" IS SUFFICIENTLY RE-SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. BY SATURDAY
THOUGH, RAIN CHANCES COME UP CONSIDERABLY AND UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS TX WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE
ARE SOME AREAS WHERE FG COULD FOR THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM MCB TO ASD. THESE TERMINALS COULD FALL INTO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY
HAZARDOUS LIMITS AT 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST AND COULD EVEN SINK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF STORMS THAT PRODUCE ERRATIC
WIND SHIFTS AND SPEEDS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TE
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