316
FXUS64 KLIX 291140
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
THIS MORNING, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH.
ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THE EVENING CONVECTION OUT OF OUR
AREA AT PRESENT, WITH THE NEXT ALREADY NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA
BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE ALREADY
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA, WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT
PRESENT MAY ALREADY BE INTO ALABAMA BY 8 OR 9 AM CDT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING
AGAIN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, SO WE CAN'T DRY OUT THE FORECAST. CERTAINLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IF WE GET
SOME SUNSHINE, WHICH LOOKS LIKELY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
EXPECT TODAY'S STORMS TO WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATE
IN THE DAY, WITH FEW TO NO STORMS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND AGAIN, A FEW OF
THOSE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
OVERALL, ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAINLY
1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED ISSUES ELSEWHERE, BUT
AREAL THREAT AREAS AREN'T LARGE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLOOD WATCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE, ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED. SOMEWHAT MORE SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS CLOSER TO 90.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE
LEGITIMATELY DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE AREA. WE'LL NEED TO HOLD
ONTO AT LEAST A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING
FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND PERHAPS LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. BEYOND THAT POINT, THE
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SEES THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, WITH THE GFS RETURNING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ALMOST 48 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF
(MONDAY VS WEDNESDAY). THE CURRENT NBM SOLUTION TRENDS MUCH MORE
LIKE THE ECMWF, WITH ONLY MINIMAL MENTIONS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY, THE ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DAYS.
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BE MORE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS,
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. ONCE THE
MOISTURE INCREASES, SO WILL THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH A GENERAL LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION COULD
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AND PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO COVER THIS THREAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY MONDAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHERE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY, BUT
OUTSIDE OF THAT WINDOW, THE ONLY CONCERN FOR MARINE OPERATIONS
WILL BE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND THAT IS MAINLY THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 83 69 84 61 / 50 10 50 0
BTR 85 72 87 65 / 30 10 50 10
ASD 85 70 88 64 / 80 10 40 10
MSY 85 75 89 72 / 70 10 50 10
GPT 84 72 88 66 / 90 10 40 20
PQL 84 70 88 64 / 90 20 50 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...RW
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