281
FXUS64 KLIX 231047
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
547 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 547 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AND NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY. RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VERY TRANQUIL BUT WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE DEW PT TEMPS TO FALL TODAY,
AND AT FIRST THIS PROCESS WILL BE SLOW AND GRADUAL ON NORTHERLY
WINDS. THEN THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR MOVES IN AFTER SUNSET TODAY.
EVENTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM, LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND
ROOM TEMP AS 72F SHOULD DOT THE MAP IN MANY LOCATIONS EACH
MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPS A BIT
COOLER BUT ONLY GETTING TO THE UPPER 60S FOR SOME. THIS RELATIVELY
COOLER BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS OCCURRING THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME IN DEW PT TEMPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TOO LOW TO REALLY SHOW IN THE FCAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TO END THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL START TO SEE THE UPPER LEVEL BRIDGE
RETROGRADE A LITTLE BACK WESTWARD AS THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST DEEPENS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWERING DEW POINTS HEADING
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE NOTICEABLY A TICK COOLER, WITH MOST NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE STILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND, WE WILL SWITCH BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING
MOISTURE BACK IN.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT MOVES IN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK IS SHOWN IN THE POPS WHICH DON'T GET ABOVE ~10%
FOR ONSHORE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED. JUST
OUTSIDE THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE MAY START TO SEE POPS CREEP BACK UP
WITH THE MOISTURE RECOVERY THAT STARTS SUNDAY.
HRL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
OUTSIDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15
KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NE TO E BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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