437
FXUS64 KLIX 270515
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- STRONG HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS UP TO 108F
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLY BEING ISSUED EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SOME OR ALL
OF THE AREA.
- ONGOING MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER BASINS.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS RETURNS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVES MOVES OVER
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT DUE TO LACK OF OTHER
POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS BESIDES HEAT AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASING EACH DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEXES INCREASING WITH EACH DAY. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
BUT NON-ZERO. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STORMS TO FORM THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. PW'S RISE RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL HELP HEAT INDEX
NUMBERS RISE AS HIGH AS 110F. THIS SETS ITS OWN PROBLEM THOUGH, AS
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AND TRIGGER TEMPS ARE HIT,
IT WILL RELEASE ALL OF THIS ENERGY RAPIDLY CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL INJEST THE
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THEM CAUSING STRONG DOWNBURSTS TO OCCUR. THIS IS
VERY NORMAL FOR SYSTEMS THAT DISPLACE DRY STABLE AIR AHEAD OF
THEM. ONCE THE INITIAL STORMS OCCUR, THE DRY AIR IS REPLACED WITH
PW VALUES THAT ARE 2.25"+ WHICH MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH WATERSPOUT/TORNADOE ACTIVITY. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH LOOKS
TO BE UNORGANIZED BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL BE NO
CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS WITH THIS, WHICH IS VERY NORMAL. BUT THE
MESSAGE SHOULD BE RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS.
TE/DSS/FRF
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
CONCERNING THE PASSAGE OF AN FAIRLY VIGOROUS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL NOW SHOW THIS
TROUGH AXIS, AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING, MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOISTURE LOADED ATMOSPHERE WITH MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER AT 1000 TO 1500 J/KG, THIS WILL
STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY, AND POP OF 60 TO
70 PERCENT REFLECTS THIS RISK WELL. WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE IN
PLACE, SO HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE ONE SAVING GRACE WILL A RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTION
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS THAT WILL HELP TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF
THESE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. STILL, OUR RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND VERY
SATURATED SOILS WILL ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE OTHER IMPACT OF THE INCREASED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER WILL A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, OR BELOW ANY HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG 595DM
H5 RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GROW IN THE WAKE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER, THE REGION WILL STILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND THIS WILL KEEP A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND A
WEAKER CAP OVER THE AREA. PWATS WILL FALL BACK TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS OF 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES AND MLCAPE WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1500 TO
2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS BOTH DAYS AND THIS IS REFLECTED
BY DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THESE DCAPE VALUES. IN GENERAL
THOUGH, WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE VERY TYPICAL CONDITIONS FOR EARLY JULY
ACROSS THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AT MCB BUT
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES ARE
ALSO ON THE LOWER END DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE
REPLACED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THIS WAVE EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTION WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, MOSTLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ057-058-
076>078-080-082-084-086-087-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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