475
FXUS64 KLIX 241050
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
550 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
- OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NO RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
IT WAS ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A
PLEASANT NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DID MOVE INTO THE AREA AND BY 6Z
WAS PRACTICALLY BISECTING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE
FRONT WAS MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS FALLING
INTO THE 40S WHILE AHEAD OF IT DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER
60S. FOG IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN THIS MORNING BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP. IN THE MID LVLS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.
IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS BETTER FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE 4 CORNERS TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY WORK TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
STALLING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TAIL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, FIRST JUST WEST
OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CWA NW TO SE TOMORROW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND
BEFORE MID LVL HGHTS START TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. WITH
THE INCREASE IN LL MOISTURE AND MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WE COULD SEE
SOME VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN 3RD/HALF OF THE CWA. WE KEPT POPS BELOW 15% BUT DID
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES. NOT AS CONCERN ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO HAVE A
GREATER IMPACT ON THE AREA WHICH WILL ALSO MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURE ASPECT, WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM BUT THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
LL TEMPS ARE ABOUT A DEGREE COOLER TODAY WHICH SHOULD INDICATE TO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TOMORROW
IS MORE INTERESTING AS LL TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE TRYING TO INCH BACK
UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST INDICATING SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THOSE SPRINKLES, INCREASING CLOUD
COVER, AND WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, HIGHS MAY ONLY GET INTO THE MID 70S OVER
COASTAL MS. AS FOR THURSDAY THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME
RECORDS TESTED WITH A GOOD CHUNK IF NOT HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MID
80S FOR A HIGHS.
AS FOR FOG WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG
OVER MAINLY THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DENSE
FOG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINATING FEATURE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE
ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DOME CENTERED OVER
TEXAS, WITH ATTENDANT WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS
WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS WE'VE BEEN TALKING
ABOUT FOR SOME TIME NOW, THIS TRANSLATES INTO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING, AND NO RAIN. THIS HOLD
TRUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
INTO THE WEEKEND WE HAVE A WEEK FRONT THAT DROPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDS UP IN THE GULF. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR
A BIT OF RAIN, BUT THE LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE HIGH TEMPS MAYBE AS
MUCH AS TEN DEGREES COOLER. /DS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE STILL CURRENTLY IN VFR STATUS AND WITH LITTLE
STRATUS OUT THERE AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN IT LOOKS LIKE ALL
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH TODAY. THE FRONT IS
JUST ABOUT TO THE COAST NOW WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND
MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. TONIGHT MOISTURE MAY
START TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN
WESTWARD. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME OVERNIGHT FOG FOR BTR AND HUM BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THAT TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL
NEAR THE COAST. WITH THAT WE WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST WE WILL SEE RETURN FLOW SET
BACK UP OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY THIS WEEKEND. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DS
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