483
FXUS64 KLIX 010851
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING
NEAR BERMUDA, AND OVER THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER REGION. IN
BETWEEN, A WEAK UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WAS CENTERED NEAR TAMPA THIS
EVENING. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE AIRMASS LOCALLY REMAINED RATHER MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, WHICH IS AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. EVENING CONVECTION HAD PRETTY MUCH DIED
OUT BY ABOUT 9 PM CDT.
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT
ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THEY COULD AGAIN BE OFF TO AN EARLY START BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT
BY ABOUT 9 PM. ON WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO, AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPLISH IS TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
STARTING LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE 1.25
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. WHILE THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY, LOWER DEW POINTS WILL LAG THE FRONT AND MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY. SO, THERE MAY STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS IN AREAS
THAT DON'T GET THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO NOON, WITH WEDNESDAY
POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. (RW)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD A BIT DRIER AND HOTTER PATTERN
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CWFA. A WEAK H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX
REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT SHUT DOWN ALL RAINFALL POTENTIAL,
IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD PLUS THE DECREASING POPS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE REGION. RH
VALUES NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IF DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES GOING INTO THE
HOLIDAY/HOLIDAY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT LOWER DUE TO SOME DRY AIR ALOFT
POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL
BE HOT NO LESS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL IN THE 100-105F RANGE
RESPECTIVELY THURSDAY-SATURDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND.
GOING FURTHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES "INTERESTING" AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, JUST TO OUR EAST AN UPPER
LOW WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A
VERY INTERESTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
MID/ULL EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
OR NORTHERN GULF. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES APPEARING IN THE
GLOBALS SO EXACT DETAILS ARE A BIT FUZZY, IF YOU WILL. HOWEVER, IN
EITHER SOLUTION THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAKDOWN LEADING TO ONCE
AGAIN A WETTER PERIOD AS THE DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED
WITH THE WEAKNESS RATHER CLOSE TO OUR REGION. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME
MORNING FOG. COVERED FOG/VIS WITH TEMPOS LATER THIS MORNING
RESPECTIVELY. MORE CONVECTION AREAWIDE AGAIN. CONTINUED THE
PROBS/TEMPOS LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA. EXPECTED VARIABLE AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY BEFORE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS, WITH
THE MORE GENERAL CONCERN DAILY/NIGHTLY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
MOST FREQUENT TIMING WILL BE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AND AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER
THE LAKES AND SOUNDS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. (RW)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 72 91 71 / 70 30 30 10
BTR 93 75 92 74 / 50 20 50 10
ASD 92 73 92 72 / 60 30 50 10
MSY 93 78 92 78 / 50 30 70 20
GPT 91 74 92 73 / 80 40 40 10
PQL 90 73 92 71 / 80 40 40 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW
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