796
FXUS64 KLIX 061049
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
549 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 504 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- VERY NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WARM DAYS AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW, BUT A
FEW STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
- HEAT STRESS WILL BE AN IMPACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST
TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST CROP OF THERMALS WILL BE
HOME GROWN JUST LIKE YESTERDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SECOND CROP WILL BE DEVELOPING TO
THE NW OF THE AREA IN AND AROUND THE TEXARKANA REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL MOVE SE TOWARD THE AREA BUT
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE TIME AS IT WILL BE JUST AFTER SUNSET
THAT THESE CELLS BEGIN THEIR APPROACH TO THE AREA SO THEY SHOULD
BE WEAKENING. A FEW OF THESE COULD REACH THE AREA BUT SHOULDN'T BE
MUCH MORE THAN SOME LEFT OVER LIGHTNING AND SHOWERS. THIS IS VERY
MESOSCALE IN SCOPE SO IT WILL TAKE GETTING CLOSER TO DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT BEFORE THIS CAN BE DECIPHERED. THE SAME STRENGTH
ARGUMENT WILL HOLD AS FAR AS DOWNBURSTING WINDS AND
WATERSPOUT/WEAK TORNADIC PROBABILITIES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALWAYS
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE TYPE OF STORMS, WHEN THERE IS GOOD CELL
MOVEMENT, RAINFALL ACCUMS DON'T STACK UP VERY WELL, BUT WHEN CELLS
DON'T MOVE MUCH, THAT'S WHEN IT CAN BE AN ISSUE. THE HIGHER
NUMBERS WILL HOLD INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY EVEN WED BEFORE SOME
DRYING OF PW VALUES CAUSE PRECIP NUMBERS TO FALL A BIT AS WE MOVE
INTO THU. ALL THAT JUST TO SAY THIS IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH SOME YEARS CAN BE A BIT DRIER, OUR NORMAL PRECIP
DISTRIBUTION IS AROUND 30%, GIVE OR TAKE 10%, ON A DAILY BASIS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A WEAK H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO
PLACE OUR AREA IN A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WITH
CORRECTLY TIMED UPPER IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING OVER OUR LANDBASED ZONES (OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
OVER THE MARINE ZONES). THE BEST QPF SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS RESIDES OVER
THE MIDSOUTH, HOWEVER, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MODEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE TRIGGERS AROUND (MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES) TO
KEEP AT LEAST SOME COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DESPITE THE WEAK RIDGE IN
SOMEWHAT CLOSE PROXIMITY. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
TSRA TODAY WILL BE TIMED IN PROB30 AND PREVAILING GROUPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM MCB TO NEW IS WHERE MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE
IMPACTED AT SOME TIME TODAY BY TSRA PRODUCING AT MOST MVFR
CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY. ELSEWHERE, CHANCES WILL FALL INTO PROB30
GROUPING. ALL ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECAY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OUTSIDE TSRA, VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A WSW DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10KT BUT A FEW DAYS COULD RISE TO
NEAR 15KT. WINDS SHIFT TO DUE SOUTH THEN FROM A SE DIRECTION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BUT REMAIN AROUND 10KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW MAY BE STRONG PRODUCING ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WATERSPOUTS, WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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