679
FXUS64 KLIX 300553
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1253 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS OR WORK SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT- RELEATED
ILLNESSES. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR LIGHT- WEIGHT AND LOOSE-
FITTING CLOTHING, AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR
CONDITIONING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE LOW, A FEW STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WATERSPOUT AND TORNADO ACTIVITY AS
WELL.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
MODELS NORMALLY TAKE THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY THEY CAN TO SPIN
SOMETHING UP OVER ANY WARM WATER SFC. THE GFS IS FAMOUS FOR THIS
ONCE EQUATIONS ARE CHANGED FOR THE SPRING/SUMMER. BUT EVEN THIS
MODEL DOES NOT DO THIS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BY WED
ONCE IT CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM ITSELF IS QUITE
DISORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT BUT DOES HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL BROAD
VORTICITY TO IT LOCATED ROUGHLY 260 MILES SE OF THE CAROLINA'S
STATE LINE AT MIDNIGHT15. THE SYSTEM IS OBVIOUSLY OPEN AND THIS
MAY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE, BUT THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THINGS FOR
OUR AREA AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS OPEN WAVE MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. AND IF YOU ARE THINKING,
HOW DOES THIS FEATURE REACH US IN ROUGLY 18 HOURS WHEN ITS THAT
FAR AWAY AND NOT MOVING VERY FAST? GOOD QUESTION, THE INITIALIZING
OF STORMS FOR OUR AREA WILL BE BROUGHT BY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL BE ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE, AND YES, THAT
MEANS IT IS QUITE STRONGLY ORIENTED WNW TO ESE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE. AT THE MOMENT, THIS OPEN WAVE IS ORIENTED W TO E.
ENOUGH ABOUT THE TROPICAL IDENTITY OF THIS THING, WHAT'S IT DO
HERE? THE SFC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST
THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INLAND THROUGH SELA
LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS FOR MOST AREAS WILL START TO BECOME
LIGHT NORTHERLY AS THIS OCCURS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOWERING OVER
FLORIDA THIS MORNING, WELL TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERLY WAVE, AND
THIS IS WHAT WE WILL SEE OCCUR LATE TODAY. THE ISSUE IS MORE HEAT
FOR OUR AREA FIRST DUE TO THE SUBSIDENT PROFILE AND GENTLE
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THEN AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
LOWER TO THOSE TRIGGER TEMPS, WHICH MOST OF THE AREA WILL EASILY
REACH TO EAST FIRST, WE SHOULD SEE STORMS START TO EXPLODE.
NUMBERS ARE NOT ROBUST FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT A FEW LIKE DCAPE
VALUES ARE, SO WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO
PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS, BUT THEY WILL BE MOVING WEST OR NW
AT A GOOD PACE, SO THEY WON'T OVERSTAY THEIR WELCOME. WED WILL BE
THE WETTEST DAY THE WAY THINGS LOOK PRESENTLY AND NUMBERS DO COME
DOWN A BIT CONCERNING SEVERE STORMS BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL
HIGH ENOUGH TO GET ATTENTION SO WE CAN'T TAKE SEVERE STORMS OFF
THE TABLE. THEN AGAIN, THIS IS PRETTY MUCH THE CASE ANY TIME THERE
ARE STORMS DURING THE SUMMER. BY THU, WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
A FAIRLY NORMAL SUMMER REGIME WHERE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND 30-50% BECOMES FAMOUS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE NOSE OF THE OH VALLEY RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE AREA TO END
THE WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SOME AND AFTERNOON POPS TO
LOWER BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY (20-50%) ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH WOULD BE HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 108 DEGREES WHICH WOULD ELEVATED THE RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING A WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER
THE AREA. THIS COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE AFTERNOON POPS ONCE MORE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ON SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITHIN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGER MID-UPPER
RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND FAVORING TROUGHING
AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS HEADED
INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN AND POTENTIALLY
BRING MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BY THE EVENING HOURS,
TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST BRINGING IFR CIGS AND VIS
TEMPORARILY TO TERMINALS OVER COASTAL MISS INITIALLY AND SITES TO
THE WEST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE AREA MOVES OUT AND THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVES IN, THERE COULD BE
SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
COULD MAKE FOR A BIT OF WEAK CAT. ONCE TSRA START DEVELOPING,
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST IN AND AROUND THEM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
ASIDE FROM A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS AND DIRECTION WILL
VARY THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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