341
FXUS64 KLIX 290538
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL START TODAY FROM THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
STRONG ADVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE STORMS FIRING ALONG IT IS
MAINLY WITH THE FIRST SFC BASED FRONTAL INERFACE. THE STRONG
ADVECTIVE PATTERN SHOWS TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL FROM THE UPPER
70S TO THE UPPER 50S OVER A ROUGHLY 300MILE DISTANCE. THIS IS NOT
AS STRONG AS WINTER COLD FRONTS AS THIS DISTANCE CAN BE ONLY 50
MILES. BUT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS IS IMPRESSIVE WHICH SHOWS A
STRONG ADVECTION OF COLD AIR. WE WILL EVENTUALLY GET INTO SOME OF
THIS AIR, BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. WE WILL START WITH STORMS
TODAY. THE FRONT EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH
HELPING TO LIFT THE VARIABLES ALONG IT. BUT THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY TO ALSO HELP. COMPARATIVELY, THIS
EXTRA FORCING SHOULD HELP RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WITH ALL
MODES POSSIBLE BUT WIND AND HAIL BEING THE HIGHEST. LIGHTNING WILL
BE PREVALENT WITH THESE AS WELL AND SHOULD START TO SEE SOMETHING
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING WEST TO EAST.
SINCE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HEATING TO A MINIMUM THU, WE SHOULD
A BACKING OFF OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES. BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THU AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY SAT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFF
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL BE MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS AT THAT TIME. THE LOCAL AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
75TH PERCENTILE (1.4 INCHES). WITH ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW, THOSE
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(1.7 INCHES) BY EVENING. THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY, IT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MOIST AIRMASS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS POINT, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL BE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING CERTAINLY APPEAR
REASONABLE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN MOST
AREAS, THAT RAIN WILL BE RATHER WELCOME, AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS 5 TO
10 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE JANUARY 1ST. AFTER SATURDAY, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE BACK WITH PROBABLY
NO RAIN DURING THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHICH SIDE OF THE
FRONT A LOCATION IS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 80, NORTH OF THE FRONT,
NOT MUCH PAST 70. SATURDAY, CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HOLD HIGHS TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BY TUESDAY RETURNING TO THE LOWER 80S,
WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH AREAS NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDORS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 40S. BEYOND THAT POINT, JUST AS THE HIGHS RESPOND TO AROUND
NORMAL (LOWER 80S), SO WILL LOW TEMPERATURES (UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S).
RW
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A FEW SITES WITH MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND MOST SHOULD
REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ALL VFR. THE ONLY
LOCATION THAT COULD FALL TO IFR CIGS WILL BE MCB. BUT MCB SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS WELL. A STRONG PROB OF TSRA WILL MOVE
IN AROUND NOON TODAY FOR MCB AND POINTS SOUTH AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. WILL TIME IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA AS THEY MOVE IN TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE GULF
WATERS. THIS TRANSITION STARTS FRIDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 3 FEET
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RISE POSSIBLY TO HEADLINE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ENDING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE
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