323
FXUS64 KLIX 112323
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
623 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES
DURING THOSE DAYS. THIS IS OUR FIRST HEAT SPELL OF THE SUMMER,
SO PLEASE USE CAUTIONS IF OUTDOORS OR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HIGHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS HAS CORRELATED TO A HIGHER FLASH
FLOOD RISK STARTING ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO STAY PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. DRY AIR ABOVE 850MB
COUPLED WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE HAS KEPT SHOWERS AT BAY
TODAY. THEREFORE, THIS IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100. THE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALSO PROMOTING QUITE AN EXPANSIVE BERMUDA
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PRIMARILY DRIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, WITH TODAY BEING THE "DRIEST" DAY.
WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW,
LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS
AND THE ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES. HOWEVER, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT RIGHT AT SUNRISE.
FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BE A CARBON COPY OF THURSDAY, BUT WITH THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, WE WILL
HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. ACCORDING
TO THE HREF AND REFS, OVERALL PW VALUES WILL START APPROACHING THE
90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS COASTAL SE LA AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB OCCURS ACROSS THAT AREA. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
105 ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE ONE OF OUR FIRST DAYS
APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO IT'S IMPORTANT TO BE
CAREFUL WHILE OUTDOORS. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 WILL STILL
HAVE DRIER AIR AT 850MB, KEEPING THE PW NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOWER
POPS AT 5-10%. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE
DAYTIME HEATING.
WE CONTINUE TO GET PUMPED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BY THIS POINT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE WHOLE AREA, BUT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SEEM TO AGREE THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN SE LA ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. SO,
POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY DOWN THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THOSE EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT'LL ONCE AGAIN BE MUGGY WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 105 AS THE MOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE.
ONCE AGAIN, ANY STORM THAT FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE
DAYLIGHT HEATING.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WE FINALLY BREAK DOWN THE STUBBORN
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES
THAT A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND RETROGRADE IT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL DO A COUPLE OF THINGS FOR US: IT'LL THROW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND PROMOTE
EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. SO, THE MOISTURE AND THE FORCING
OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, IT WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER (LOW 90S...) THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ZONAL FLOW MEANS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM AND STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS MEANS THAT THE MOISTURE POOLED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE PRIMED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF
THE STALLING FRONT, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT, WE ARE ALREADY OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY. THE SILVER LINING IS
THAT IT WILL "COOL OFF" INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER A FOOT OF
RAIN IN THE PAST 30 DAYS, SO THOSE AREAS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
TO ANY FLASH FLOOD RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE AND HOW MUCH IT'LL BE ARE STILL SHAKY AT
THIS RANGE. SO, IT'S BEST TO KEEP MONITORING THE FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME AND EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THERE ARE A FEW
SHRA ON RADAR, INCLUDING ONE OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. NO
INDICATIONS OF LIGHTNING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, BUT THE THREAT
WOULD BE NON-ZERO AT KHDC AND THE NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z. NOT ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST
THOUGH. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE AT KMCB AND
POSSIBLY AT KASD, BUT THOSE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, AND WILL
CARRY PROB30 AT SEVERAL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PROMOTING A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE
SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES. AFTERWARDS INTO NEXT WEEK, A STALLING FRONT
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...JZ
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