112
FXUS64 KLIX 020541
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL DIMINISH THIS
MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN LOUISIANA AT
MIDNIGHT, WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS NOW OVER OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. STILL SOME ELEVATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER LOWER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COASTAL PARISHES, AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR INTERSTATE
10. MIDNIGHT CDT TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WHICH WAS
COOLER THAN EXPECTED, AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH RAIN
ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. LIKELY TO TAKE MOST OR ALL MORNING TO GET
RID OF CLOUDS, BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE 70S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE 40S AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A FULL
SUNSHINE DAY, AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS,
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO AT THAT TIME, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY, EJECTING THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE EARLY WEEK AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER DRY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE. AS FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE ON
TUESDAY, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, AROUND THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1.8 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO AT LEAST ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN
WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, AND NOT QUITE SURE WHY NBM NUMBERS HOLD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL, BUT NOTHING
UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY MAY. ONCE THE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS, BEFORE COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN
SECTIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THURSDAY, IF SKIES DON'T CLEAR
QUICK ENOUGH. THE WARMEST DAY IS LIKELY TO BE WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
GFS GUIDANCE INDICATING A FEW LOCATIONS COULD WARM TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
IFR CONDITIONS THE RULE AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, AND LIKELY TO
REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. PATCHY -RA WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY NO
LIGHTNING OVER LAND, THERE'S BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE LAST HOUR OR
SO. ONLY TERMINALS THAT WE FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH NO MENTION OF
TSRA IS AT KMCB AND KBTR. CURRENT TIMING HAS UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
INTO ALABAMA RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE, WHICH SHOULD END ANY
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF TSRA. LIKELY TO SEE AN END TO ANY RA SHORTLY
AFTER THAT POINT. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES THIS MORNING, CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY MIDDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHED THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING, AND COLD ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX A BIT
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA
OF DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING TO ALLOW THE ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR MARINE
OPERATIONS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS
IN PLACE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL PROBABLY NEED EITHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES BY THAT POINT, WHICH COULD CONTINUE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ529-531>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ531>536-541-
543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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