994  
FXUS64 KLIX 201014  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
414 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA  
IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.  
RAIN CHANCES TODAY ARE OBVIOUSLY EXTREMELY HIGH WITH A SHIELD OF  
RAINFALL ALMOST STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY AT THIS POINT.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS  
THE AREA, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHER  
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.  
 
A LATE WINTER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT  
BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS  
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH RAIN COVERAGE AND  
EVEN MORE SO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH  
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS REMAINING  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST  
ZONES ON SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY  
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON  
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A  
RESULT WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOST  
ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD. FRONT COULD STALL OR SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER  
THROUGH TUESDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED. HEDGED THOSE  
BETS AT THIS TIME AND WENT WITH GENERALLY WITH CHANCE POPS. WILL  
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING AND SOME FOG IS INTERMINGLED  
BETWEEN THE RAIN SHOWERS, EITHER OF WHICH ARE LOWERING  
VISIBILITIES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND  
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE  
AND COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 20-25 KNOTS AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS  
BY THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON  
WILL GIVE WAY TO GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS  
EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT  
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME  
OF THE WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND  
ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES BUT FOR CONSISTENCY AND WITH THE  
CONSIDERATION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE IF NOT INTO GALE  
FORCE EVEN ACROSS THOSE AREAS, SIMPLY WENT WITH THE GALE WARNING  
ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS  
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE TIDAL LAKES  
BY THEN BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER AND OUTER COASTAL WATERS  
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z. THE NEXT COLD FRONT  
WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE A RISE IN SE WINDS BY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT  
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS  
WE GET FARTHER OUT IN TIME.  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: FORECAST SUPPORT FOR STENNIS SPACE CENTER  
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS  
GALE WARNINGS OVER COASTAL WATERS  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH  
VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE  
OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;  
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF  
NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 55 34 51 32 / 100 10 0 0  
BTR 56 35 52 32 / 100 10 0 0  
ASD 59 35 53 33 / 100 20 0 0  
MSY 61 41 53 40 / 100 20 0 0  
GPT 59 37 52 36 / 100 20 0 0  
PQL 59 36 54 34 / 100 20 0 0  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS  
EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-  
575-577.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
GMZ530-532-534.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS  
EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-  
577.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
GMZ532-534.  
 

 
 

 
 
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