727
FXUS64 KLIX 081747
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND MAY
GENERATE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY
DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 EACH DAY, BUT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SHORT TERM
PERIOD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS WE HAVE THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR CONDITIONS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE SIT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THE CONTROLLING FLOW AT
BOTH LEVELS IS NORTHERLY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE ONSHORE AND
INCLUDES A SMALL AMOUNT OF LIFT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BRING OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME POPCORN STORMS
WHICH COULD BE STRONG, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
CRITERIA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE A CONJUNCTION OF
THE BOUNDING UPPER LEVEL HIGHS.
SO, WE SEE TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
FORECASTED BE TYPICAL AND WILL CARRY THE FEELS-LIKE TEMPS INTO THE
100-105 RANGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS THAT POP UP AND DROP RAIN
ON A GIVEN LOCATION. ALSO, IF A STORM DOES POP UP IT WILL BE
STATIONARY OR VERY SLOW MOVING, SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR, LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES ON INTO AUGUST AS WE LOOK THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE SAME CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE DO
SEE A INDICATIONS OF A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE FORMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH SHOWS UP AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS INTO
THE MID 90S AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED KEEPING SFC MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HELP KEEP PW VALUES IN THE 50TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGE, WHICH MEANS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE CONSISTENT TREND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, WITH THE PRESSURE DOMING SUPPRESSING CONVECTION A BIT,
POPS WILL TEND TOWARD THE ISOLATED RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS AT VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD TSRA IS A
POSSIBILITY AND HAS BEEN HANDLED WITH PROB30 CODING AT MSY/NEW/HUM
WITH OTHER TERMINALS HAVING A LOWER CHANCE BUT STILL A SMALL
POSSIBILITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, FLOW OF
UP TO 10 KNOTS VARYING BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY. BY MIDWEEK
DIRECTION WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. REGARDLESS OF
DIRECTION, WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE
UP EACH DAY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOVING INLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, A FEW WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES. OVERALL, A VERY TYPICAL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR EARLY
AUGUST.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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