316  
FXUS64 KLIX 291140  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
640 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY  
THIS MORNING, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH.  
ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THE EVENING CONVECTION OUT OF OUR  
AREA AT PRESENT, WITH THE NEXT ALREADY NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA  
BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE ALREADY  
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, AS WELL AS THE  
COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA, WITH  
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.  
 
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT  
PRESENT MAY ALREADY BE INTO ALABAMA BY 8 OR 9 AM CDT. SOME OF THE  
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING  
AGAIN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY  
AFTERNOON, SO WE CAN'T DRY OUT THE FORECAST. CERTAINLY ENOUGH  
MOISTURE, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IF WE GET  
SOME SUNSHINE, WHICH LOOKS LIKELY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO  
SEVERE.  
 
EXPECT TODAY'S STORMS TO WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATE  
IN THE DAY, WITH FEW TO NO STORMS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
STORMS ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND AGAIN, A FEW OF  
THOSE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.  
 
OVERALL, ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD REMAIN  
NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAINLY  
1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED ISSUES ELSEWHERE, BUT  
AREAL THREAT AREAS AREN'T LARGE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLOOD WATCH.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE  
AREA AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE, ALL THINGS  
CONSIDERED. SOMEWHAT MORE SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, WITH  
HIGHS CLOSER TO 90.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR  
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE  
LEGITIMATELY DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE AREA. WE'LL NEED TO HOLD  
ONTO AT LEAST A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING  
FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND PERHAPS LOWER  
PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. BEYOND THAT POINT, THE  
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SEES THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE  
MODELS EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, WITH THE GFS RETURNING  
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ALMOST 48 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF  
(MONDAY VS WEDNESDAY). THE CURRENT NBM SOLUTION TRENDS MUCH MORE  
LIKE THE ECMWF, WITH ONLY MINIMAL MENTIONS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY, THE ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS WARMER HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DAYS.  
 
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL  
BE MORE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS,  
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. ONCE THE  
MOISTURE INCREASES, SO WILL THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO  
PREVAIL. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE  
MORNING, WITH A GENERAL LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM LATE  
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION COULD  
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AND PROB30  
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO COVER THIS THREAT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY MONDAY.  
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING  
WHERE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY, BUT  
OUTSIDE OF THAT WINDOW, THE ONLY CONCERN FOR MARINE OPERATIONS  
WILL BE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND THAT IS MAINLY THE NEXT  
24 TO 36 HOURS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 83 69 84 61 / 50 10 50 0  
BTR 85 72 87 65 / 30 10 50 10  
ASD 85 70 88 64 / 80 10 40 10  
MSY 85 75 89 72 / 70 10 50 10  
GPT 84 72 88 66 / 90 10 40 20  
PQL 84 70 88 64 / 90 20 50 20  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...DM  
MARINE...RW  
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