744  
FXUS64 KLIX 170926  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
426 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
AGAIN WE FIND OUR AREA IN BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT AIR MASSES. THIS  
TIME THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISS  
RIVER. WPC HAS SET A PORTION OF THIS AREA WEST OF THE GRADIENT IN  
A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY. BUT MOST OF THIS AREA COULD USE AND  
MAY BE CAPABLE OF HANDLING SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THERE  
WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOCATION HAVING  
RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME NUISSANCE FLOODING.  
 
THE HEAT WILL BE BACK TODAY, SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, AS HEAT  
INDEX VALUES WILL TOP AROUND 107F FOR SOME AREAS MAINLY EAST OF  
THE MISS RIVER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP OTHER AREAS COOLER.  
 
WE SHOULD SEE A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.  
AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NW GULF BEGINS TO UNWIND  
AFTER COMING ASHORE, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PROVIDED TO THE  
FRONT TO GIVE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE WHOLE AREA BY THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER THE GULF  
SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVENTHOUGH MODELS WANT TO PAINT  
SOME QPF IN SOME GRID SECTIONS, THIS MAY BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN  
INDICATED NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO TROPICAL WAVES LOOK TO TRAVERSE  
THE SOUTHERN GULF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, BUT AS THE STACKED HIGH  
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA, ANY WAVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
DISTURBANCE WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING WEST KEEPING THE AREA DRY  
AND HOT. WITHIN THIS FCAST PACK, IT IS HARD TO FIND ANY RELIEF  
FROM THE HEAT. BUT WE WILL KEEP LOOKING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING  
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ONLY FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE  
FOR WESTERN AREA TERMINALS, GENERALLY INCLUDING KHUM AND KBTR LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BAND OF TROPICAL  
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LA.  
MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TEMPORARY  
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY LEADING TO PERIODIC LOWERING OF FLIGHT  
CATEGORIES, AND GUSTY ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 20 TO 30  
KNOTS. ELSEWHERE, TYPICAL LATE MORNING CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP, BUT  
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL  
AREAS DRY OUT TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. KLG  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD HAS CAUSED WINDS TO COLAPSE THIS MORNING.  
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A BACK  
DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS CAUSING EASTERLY  
WINDS TO RISE TO AROUND 15-20KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE EARLY  
PART OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA AND  
WINDS AGAIN GO LIGHT.  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WESTERN AREAS.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH  
VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE  
OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;  
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF  
NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 94 71 94 72 / 10 0 10 0  
BTR 92 73 92 74 / 40 10 30 0  
ASD 94 72 94 73 / 10 0 10 0  
MSY 92 77 93 78 / 30 0 30 0  
GPT 92 74 93 75 / 10 0 10 0  
PQL 96 73 97 73 / 10 0 10 0  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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