415
FXUS64 KLIX 202337
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINFALL.
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 108 DEGREES AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
RAN A QUICK UPDATE ON FORECAST GRIDS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LOWER T AND ASSOCIATED TD RESULTING FROM CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL
THAT FORMED FROM A MORNING MCS OVER NORTH LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR POPLARVILLE WESTWARD TO BATON ROUGE.
AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FIRE UP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
TODAY, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE RIVER
PARISHES AND METRO NEW ORLEANS TONIGHT, AND PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH DOMINATING THE GULF. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORTICITY MAX WILL COMBINE WITH THE CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE, BUT QUICK DOWNPOURS
ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF. SOME MINOR
STREET FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TOMORROW WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENIN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, EVEN WITH LOWER RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 1
INCH PER HOUR, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES COULD OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHSHORE AND IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
FORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BE THE LAST DOSE OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
GULF EXPANDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PWATS AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REDUCING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TO NEARLY ZERO. AT MOST, A SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY BENEATH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY,
RISING FROM THE UPPER AND LOWER 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE RUN IN THE UPPER 70S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
BACK ABOVE 105 DEGREES EACH DAY. SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE COULD KEEP VALUES JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY HOT IN GENERAL WITH MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEATRISK INDICATED. THIS MEANS THAT EVERYONE SHOULD TAKE
THE PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGHING DEVELOPS, THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A
LARGE MCS COULD FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD, FOLLOWING THE
THETA-E MOISTURE AXIS, INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO HELP TO TEMPER
THE EXTREME HEAT WITH HIGHS FALLING CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS DROPPING BACK TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST
AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TO INCREASE.
OVERALL, THE DAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S AND SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION FIRING UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF I-10 WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE LOWEST AND NEAR AVERAGE POP FOR LATE JUNE OF 30 TO
50 PERCENT IS FORECAST. SOUTH OF I-10, ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE GROW AS THE
TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. A RETURN TO A WARMER AND DRIER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S AND RAIN CHANCES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE DIRECT RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR
DROPPING PWATS BELOW AVERAGE OR AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION THAT REDUCES MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO BELOW 6.0 C/KM AND DROPS MLCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THE ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
UPDRAFT COULD OCCUR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA AT TIME OF ISSUANCE AND
DISCUSSION. THE MVFR AREAS ARE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND A
FRONT THAT IS NOW DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. MCB BRIEFLY DROPS TO IFR
FROM 09Z TO 12Z DUE TO LOW CIGS AND ASSOCIATED LOW VIS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AND ARE ADDRESSED BY PROB30 CODING. AFTER 18Z RAIN CHANCES
CLEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. /SCHLOTZ/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WEEK. PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONGER WINDS UP AROUND
15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY RELAX TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...PG
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