652
FXUS64 KLIX 021746
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1146 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1131 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK.
WHILE OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW, A FEW HEAVIER
STORMS COULD PROVIDE MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO LOCALIZED AREAS.
- NIGHTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO GEORGIA, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 40. FOG
DISSIPATED AROUND 10 AM IN MOST AREAS, WITH THE LAST SHREDS
NEAR/OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. TEMPERATURES JUMPED QUICKLY FROM
THE UPPER 50S UNDER THE FOG TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ONCE AN
AREA HAD AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSHINE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING'S FOG APPEARED TO BE MORE OF A RADIATION FOG, WHERE
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF AN ADVECTION OR HYBRID FOG TYPE.
ONSHORE FLOW IS BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED, BUT WATER TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO WARMING UP. AWAY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERS (MID
50S), MOST WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S. DEW POINTS
AREN'T FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CARRY MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT, BUT WILL NOT DO A
PRE-EMPTIVE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS AWAY FROM
MARINE INFLUENCES PROBABLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADVECTION FOG WILL
BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK, AS DEW POINTS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S MOVE OVER WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA, AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS WERE EITHER VFR OR WILL BE SHORTLY. MAIN
QUESTION IS FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, OR WHETHER IT BECOMES LOW
STRATUS. DO EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OR ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 09Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY 16Z AND VFR BY 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE PERIODS
WHERE WINDS APPROACH 15 KNOTS, BUT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AREN'T
EXPECTED. RATHER, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT, AS MID
60S DEWPOINTS GET ADVECTED OVER WATER THAT'S PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
TEMPERATURE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 50S.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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