532
FXUS64 KLIX 271143
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
543 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. COMMUTERS AND
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDUCIVE TO SUPER FOG
FORMATION NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF FIRES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
70S AND QUITE POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 60 DEGREES.
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT BUT SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AS WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AND JUST LIKE THAT THE FOG TEMP HAS RISEN TO 67F WITH A DENSE FOG
TEMP OF 65F. THIS IS A GOOD BIT HIGHER THAN FRIDAY MORNINGS FOG
TEMPS WHICH MEANS MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE AREA.
MOISTENING OF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO A WARMING PROCESS, SO WE
WILL NEED TO GET RID OF THIS HEAT TO REACH THESE FOG TEMPS. THIS
WILL BE A BIT HARD TO DO STILL, BUT WE SHOULD GET THERE ALONG THE
MISS COAST FIRST AND FARTHER WEST LATER TONIGHT. NOT A LOT
DIFFERENT THAN FRIDAY MORNING. WET BULB COOLING IS STILL VERY
STRONG AT 7C/57FT, YEAH, THAT IS AN INSANELY EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING LAYER. THE ISSUE IS IT HAS RISEN TO 850MB
WHERE THU EVENING IT WAS AT 900MB AND THE TWO DAYS BEFORE THAT IT
WAS AT 975MB. SIMPLY PUT, THE LOWER THIS EFFICIENT COOLING PROCESS
IS TO THE GROUND, THE EASIER IT IS FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
EARLIER AND STAY LATER. THE HIGHER IT IS THE LONGER IT TAKES FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP AND THE SHORTER TIME IT STAYS AFTER DAYLIGHT FOR
OBVIOUS REASONS. BUT IT DOES HELP PROMOTE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT UNDER
AND ADJACENT TO IT WHICH WOULD ALSO SLOW THE FOG MAKING PROCESS.
OFCOURSE, WE COULD HAVE THIS AND STILL NOT GET FOG IF ALL OTHER
VARIABLES DON'T PLAY ALONG. NOW THAT THE FOG TEMP IS HIGHER, WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINGER OVER MARINE AREAS A BIT LONGER THAN FRI
MORNING. WE HAVE A WEAK BUT EVIDENT SUB INVERSION AT THE SFC WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF REMOVING HEAT UPWARD VIA RADIATIONAL PROCESSES
AND NOW THAT THE ~3KFT CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OUT, THIS HEAT CAN
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE VERY EFFICIENT COOLING LAYER AS WELL, ITS
STILL JUST GOING TO TAKE A BIT LONGER. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA COULD FOG IN AROUND MIDNIGHT WHILE THE WESTERN HALF AROUND 2
TO 3AM SAT MORNING. AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS NOTHING TO SAY THIS
WON'T OCCUR AGAIN SAT NIGHT SINCE THERE IS STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES,
YET. WE WILL NEED TO TAKE THIS DAY TO DAY BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL
SUBTLE CHANGES AND THE DEPENDANCY ON NO CLOUD COVER CAN BE A
PROBLEM WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF ANY FCAST. SHELF WATERS ARE WARMING
AS WELL WHICH WILL NOT HELP ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, SO IF WE GET RID OF THE RADIATIVE COOLING PROCESS, WE
COULD SEE FOG PRODUCTION BUT IT MAY NOT BE DENSE BY SUN MORNING
SINCE THIS WILL HAVE TO CONFORM TO A MORE ADVECTIVE REGIME. AGAIN,
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE A BIT EASIER, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. A STRONG CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD
ACCOMPANY IT BUT THUNDERSTORMS LOOK VERY HARD TO COME BY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW
COULD DEVELOP. WE WON'T GO WITH A ZERO CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
BUT THERE WON'T BE MANY. NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
EVENTHOUGH IT IS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH PLENTY OF
HORIZONTAL FORCING. QUITE WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
MUCH NOTICED AS IT WILL BE A QUICK SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN FEELING LATELY. WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP THINGS MIXED OUT
KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING FOR MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES BUT AS WINDS DECOUPLE
TUESDAY NIGHT, THIS WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA COULD STAY MOSTLY ABOVE ACTUAL FREEZING TEMPS WHILE
THE NORTHERN HALF WILL BE AT OR BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE HEADLINES TO BE RELEASED AS
"WIND CHILL" TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND MID 20S
SOUTH. A FAIRLY SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER WED
BRINGING THE AREA BACK INTO HE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A BIT MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS BEEN IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS
IS EVIDENT IN THE WIND PROFILER DATA THAT SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS AT 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THIS MIXING HAS PROHIBITED
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH FOG IS
A LOWER THREAT, WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT ALL OF
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM 300 TO 1500 FEET
WITH GPT AND MCB SEEING THE BEST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 14 TO 15Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP INTO A SCATTERED DECK BY
18Z AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. UNFORTUNATELY, CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS EVENT TO TAKE HOLD
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LOWER AT TIMES INTO
IFR OR LOWER STATUS, BUT CONTINUED ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL KEEP JUST ENOUGH MIXING IN PLACE TO PROHIBIT A MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT DENSE FOG EVENT FROM DEVELOPING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
NO REAL RELIEF FOR FOG OVER COASTAL AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT/SAT MORNING
WITH THE FOG REMAINING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FOG MAY NOT
LIFT IN MANY AREAS NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE
NORTHERN GULF MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER DAYLIGHT. THIS WILL
DEFINITELY MOVE THE FOG ISSUE AWAY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND START
EASING LATE TUE INTO WED. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT AS SUSTAINED COULD REACH 25 TO 30KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 77 60 77 46 / 0 0 20 80
BTR 80 61 80 49 / 0 0 20 70
ASD 77 58 77 49 / 0 0 10 60
MSY 79 63 79 54 / 0 0 20 50
GPT 73 59 73 52 / 0 0 10 60
PQL 75 57 75 52 / 0 0 10 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-555.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ550-552-
557-570-572-575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-555.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ552-557-
570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...TE
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