515
FXUS64 KLIX 250124
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
824 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2018
SOUNDING DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON'S BALLOON LAUNCH WAS SUCCESSFUL, AND THERE WERE NO
ISSUES. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING, THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
IS MOIST. THE CAPE IS AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (1063 J/KG IN
THE MIXED LAYER), AND THE CIN IS AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(-25 J/KG). THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS VARIED WITH HEIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AND
LIGHT (5-10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE). AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS, THE WINDS
ARE VARIABLE, BUT MOSTLY WESTERLY AND LIGHT (5 KNOTS). AT THE
UPPER LEVELS, THE WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AND LIGHT. MSW
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2018/
SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND OUR DAILY BOUT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY
RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S BEFORE RAIN CUTS OFF THE TEMPERATURE
RISE.
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT. AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY, REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY. THE
TREND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 35
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT SATURDAY, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. BEYOND THAT, MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TRY TO BUILD A RIDGE IN FROM THE EAST, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS. COULD EVEN
HAVE A DRY DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
HOWEVER THE TYPICAL MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR MAY OCCUR IN
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA, MAINLY IMPACTING THE MORE INLAND AIRPORTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY SOME OF THE AIRPORTS NEAR
THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, A FEW HOURS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND SOME OF THE MORE INLAND AIRPORTS LIKE KMCB AND
POSSIBLY DOWN TO SOME OF THE AIRPORTS NEAR I-12. 22/TD
MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND THE WINDS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO BE IN 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE OVER
THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES MUCH OF TONIGHT, AND BRIEFLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, SO LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN WATERS EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 KNOTS RANGE DURING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE: GREEN.
DEPLOYED: NONE.
ACTIVATION: NONE.
ACTIVITIES: NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OR
EXCESSIVE RAIN.
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF
NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 87 72 86 / 40 70 40 80
BTR 73 87 73 86 / 20 70 40 80
ASD 74 90 73 88 / 30 80 40 70
MSY 76 88 75 87 / 30 70 40 70
GPT 75 87 75 87 / 50 70 50 60
PQL 74 89 74 88 / 60 60 50 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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