020
FXUS64 KLIX 180037
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
737 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 731 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG
WINDS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN MS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN A WHILE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD EASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORIES TO DROP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY WITH GALE WARNINGS TO FOLLOW BY LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, ESPECIALLY OVER WATER AREAS
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES VALID INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH
SETTLES IN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX, ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS - THE EXCEPTIONS
BEING WHERE STRONGER WINDS OVER LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED INTO IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AREAS.
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BUT COMES WITH A COUPLE SMALL CHALLENGES:
1 - WILL WINDS FALL OFF ENOUGH TONIGHT TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIVE
COOLING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION?
2 - HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND HOW LOW WILL
THE DEWPOINTS DROP AS A RESULT?
STARTING WITH TONIGHT, WINDS HAVE POPPED UP OVER LAND IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO AS DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTES MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. AS THE DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END, THE MIXING SHOULD
ALSO BE SHUT OFF AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS, AND THIS IN TURN WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN ACROSS MOST LAND AREAS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
IMMEDIATE NORTH-FACING SHORELINES). LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RAPID COOLING AS THE SUN SETS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY 9P MOST
PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM GUIDANCE - ESPECIALLY IN OUR
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS IN A NOD TO COLDER MOS GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
PAST HIGH BIASES IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THE NBM. THE
RESULTANT FORECAST IS FOR LOWS INT HE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE TO
HAMMOND TO PASCAGOULA AND FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
BASICALLY THE SOUTH SHORE AND COASTAL SE LA.
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR MASS SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
TOMORROW, AND HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 70S. AS AIR TEMPERATURES
HEAT UP, DAYTIME MIXING WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING DOWN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS FROM ALOFT. HAVE ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED
DEWPOINTS BELOW NBM GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR KNOWN BIASES IN BOTH
THE NBM AND OTHER GUIDANCE SOURCES IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE
30-40% RANGE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THOUGH
LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, THERE
WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR FAST FIRE GROWTH OWING
TO THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRIER THAN NORMAL FUELS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE HIGH FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE TO START THE
WORK WEEK, EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN ROUGHLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK,
EXPECT ONLY GRADUAL MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS. MORNING LOWS WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CONTINUING TO WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY, RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LARGE DIURNAL RANGES FOR THE GULF
COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS WELL WITH NO RAIN CHANCES TO
SPEAK UP IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE MUCH DRIER POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT MSY AND
ESPECIALLY NEW DUE TO THEIR PROXIMITY TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER INLAND, WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ONE THING
TO NOTE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS INCLUDED AT ASD AROUND 07Z AS
STRONGER WINDS REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG OR LOW CEILING CONCERNS, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH GALE WARNINGS OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT AND WILL
TURN MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION IN HOW STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, SO ADVISORY HEADLINES HAVE NOT BEEN
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME, BUT EITHER ADVISORY OR CAUTION HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z MONDAY. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND WILL THEN PERSIST TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
COAST WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ529-531>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ575-577.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ531>536-541-
543-551-553-554-557-570-572.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ577.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...DM
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