213
FXUS64 KLIX 291003
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
503 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
HAVE BEEN CONTEMPLATING A FLOOD WATCH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WHERE
TO SET IT UP. THE MOST CONFIDENT AREA WILL BE THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA FROM I55 EAST TO THE PEARL RIVER. BUT SINCE CAMS
GUIDANCE AND OTHER MODELS ARE IN SEVERAL DIFFERENT PLACES WE WILL
INCLUDE SOME PARISHES/COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
H3 UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING. THE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS IN TWO LOCATIONS, THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS
CURRENTLY OVER SW LA STRETCHING INTO THE GULF. THE SECOND IS OVER
SELA STRETCHING INTO THE GULF. THE H3 FLOW IS NOT STRONG WITH THESE
AREAS ON THE ORDER OF 80KT. THIS IS REFLECTED AT H5 WITH AROUND
30KT. BUT THE SPLIT ANGLE IS STRONG AT AROUND 45D WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
HELP PRODUCE LIFT. THESE AREAS ARE MORE RAIN THAN STORNG OR SEVERE
STORMS BUT THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW THAT PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OR
EVEN A SPIN UP TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY WHICH IS OUR SECOND AREA OF
PRECIP, BUT THESE WILL NOT BE DISTINCT SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS CAUSING ON AND
OFF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. BUT SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN COULD STAY FOR A TIME INTO SUNDAY. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN MOVE OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND COMES IN WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT, IT WILL NOT REPLACE THE ENVIRONMENT WITH STABILITY WHICH WILL
HELP THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE MORE STRENGTH
COMPARED TO THE CURRENT STORMS MOVING THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH BETTER LIFT AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER AS WELL. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OR NEAR IT AND SENT PACKING BY
TUE AS IT MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW
THE FRONT MOVING EAST BY MID NEXT WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS, WE WOULD NOT
SEE AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL, BUT IF THIS STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA, IT COULD SET UP A REASONABLE FLOODING PROBLEM FOR AREAS FROM
KENTUCKY TO ARKANSAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING EVEN AS SHRA AND
TS MOVE THROUGH. VIS COULD DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH STORMS
TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS WILL
SLOWLY FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO IFR LEVELS WITH NOT AS MUCH -RA
AROUND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY
PRODUCING LARGE AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS. WINDS COULD SHIFT QUICKLY
WITH THE STORMS AND EVEN HAVE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. OVERALL WIND
DIRECTIONS OUTSIDE STORMS WILL REMAIN SE TO S AT 15-20KT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST AND STALL BY MONDAY
MORNING AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE
COASTAL WATERS DEVELOP A NORTH WIND AT 10-15KT LATE MONDAY. BUT THIS
FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH BRINGING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY WHICH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 77 65 85 67 / 90 30 30 70
BTR 79 68 87 70 / 90 20 20 60
ASD 79 67 84 69 / 90 50 40 30
MSY 79 69 84 71 / 90 50 30 30
GPT 75 66 77 67 / 90 70 50 30
PQL 77 65 80 67 / 80 70 50 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083-086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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