185  
FXUS64 KLIX 092046  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
1. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND  
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR SITUATED ALONG THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR  
IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING IN COMBINATION WITH THIS DRIER AIR HAS LIMITED TOWERING CU  
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. WOULD EXPECT POP UP STORM ACTIVITY TO BE  
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES  
SUCH AS THE SEABREEZES AND IN MAJOR RIVER BASINS (I.E. FLORIDA  
PARISHES AND SOUTHERN MS). CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH  
OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR TODAY AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES THROUGH.  
LESS STORM ACTIVITY ALSO MEANS LESS CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH IS  
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S.  
 
TONIGHT WILL BE SPENT MONITORING UPSTREAM TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE  
EVOLUTION AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG THE GREAT PLAINS DRYLINE AHEAD OF  
A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS CONVECTION  
WILL ORGANIZE WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RIDE  
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED MOIST INFLOW AND BEGINNING OF  
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE REINVIGORATION OF THIS DECAYING MCS  
AS IT ENTERS ARKLATEX MIDDAY. HOWEVER, 0-6KM FLOW DECREASES  
RAPIDLY AS THIS MCS MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA WHICH COUPLED  
WITH WEAKER SURFACE INFLOW WILL MAKE IT MUCH HARDER FOR THE MCS TO  
SUSTAIN ITSELF AND IT'S LIKELY THIS FEATURE WILL BE DECAYING AS IT  
ARRIVES INTO THE CWA. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING EXACT IMPACTS  
FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND IS REFLECTED BY SPREAD OF  
SOLUTIONS WITHIN CAMS.  
 
REGARDLESS OF EXACT IMPACTS FROM THIS MCS, STRONG SURFACE HEATING  
(HIGHS IN MID 90S) AND MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVELS BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POP UP  
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK,  
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS VIA DOWNBURSTS  
(DCAPE >1000 J/KG), 1" OR GREATER HAIL (CAPE >3000 J/KG, 0-3KM LR  
> 8.5 C/KM), AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (PWAT >1.6"). POPS ARE  
HIGHEST (40-60%) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR WHERE THE  
COMBINATION OF BETTER FORCING VIA DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES  
AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE APPROACHING MCS CAN INTERACT.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING  
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG COASTAL MS BUT  
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON  
SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPS WILL BE "BALMY" IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND BEGIN A NOTABLE WARMING  
TREND TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023  
 
NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY.  
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH MID-  
WEEK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST  
AIR INTO THE REGION, KEEPING HUMIDITIES UP. GENERALLY FOR THE LONG  
TERM, IT WILL BE PRETTY DRY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN  
LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS (PWS AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3). A SHOWER OR  
TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, BUT IT IS NOT  
LIKELY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWER NEXT WEEK AS WELL (<20% FOR THE  
MOST PART) AT LEAST IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE  
STRONG RIDGING, AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.  
 
CONSEQUENTLY, NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE HOT! TEMPERATURES ARE  
LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME  
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOME MODELS ARE TRENDING A  
BIT COOLER (LOW 90S). REGARDLESS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE  
APPROACHING 105-108 DEGREES, SO A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT OUTSIDE THE  
REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER NEXT WEEK. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG  
THE RIDGING IS AND IF THE FORECAST STAYS DRIER. OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS, IF WE ARE TRENDING WETTER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIMITED.  
BUT IF WE STAY DRY (WHICH IS THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME), IT WILL BE  
QUITE HOT WITH NOT A LOT OF SHADE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF, SO PEOPLE  
WILL NEED TO REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, WEAR LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING,  
AND TAKE CARE OF THEIR PETS AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. MSW  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023  
 
DIURNAL CU IS GRADUALLY BUILDING PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-10/12  
CORRIDOR AND LESS AGITATED THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. STILL  
ANTICIPATING VCTS NEAR KMCB, KASD, KGPT, AND KHDC IN THE COMING  
HOURS WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO INCLUDE  
IN FUTURE TEMPOS AS IMPACTS BECOME CLEARER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF TS IMPACTS AND ANVIL/CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM  
STORMS SHOULD ABATE BY LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023  
 
WEAK SURFACE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME WITH  
NOCTURNAL WINDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. NOCTURNAL STORMS  
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, WATERSPOUTS, AND EVEN HAIL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ARE GREATEST EAST OF THE MOUTH  
OF THE MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD TO THE MS SOUND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT,  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY WITH WINDS GENERALLY  
AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN  
WINDS COULD WARRANT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 68 92 68 91 / 20 60 30 40  
BTR 73 95 72 94 / 10 40 20 20  
ASD 72 94 73 93 / 10 40 30 30  
MSY 75 93 74 91 / 10 40 20 30  
GPT 72 90 73 88 / 30 40 30 40  
PQL 70 93 72 91 / 30 40 30 40  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...TJS  
LONG TERM....MSW  
AVIATION...TJS  
MARINE...TJS  
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