373
FXUS64 KLIX 261337
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 818 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
REMNANTS OF A DECAYING MCS HAS MOVED INTO NORTHER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THAT SAID IT DOES NOT MEAN
THAT THE STRONG/SEVERE THREAT IS ZERO. THIS MCS IS STARTING TO
MOVE PAST THE THETA E RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN MUCH
MORE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS ALSO MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ON THE OTHER HAND IT IS STILL RATHER
UNSTABLE BUT IT IS UNSTABLE AFTER YOU GET ABOVE H9. THE ANVIL
CANOPY IS BEING BLOWN OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THAT IS SLOWING SFC HEATING. LOOKING AT THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING THE FIRST 3-3.5K FT IS STABLE AND LARGELY THE
REASON THESE WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS
POINT WE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ISSUING SEVERE'S BASED ON WIND UNTIL
WE HEAT UP MORE INTO THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER, HAIL IS STILL
POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER ISSUE IS SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE RAP HAVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL INCORRECT AT 11.7 AND OUR SOUNDING IS 13K FT.
SO EVEN THOUGH HAIL IS STILL LIKELY WE WILL NEED TO ADJUST HAIL
SIZE ESTIMATES FROM WHAT THE ALGORITHMS ARE SHOWING.
THIS REMNANT MCS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT THE WESTERN FLANK IS
AN AREA WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY. AS IT STARTS TO LAYOUT MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND STALL THAT WILL BE AN AREA OF CONCERN
LATER TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. /CAB/
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW, SO NO CHANGES IN SEVERE STORM EXPECTATIONS.
THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING THESE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH AND IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER. THIS IS THE ONGOING BATTLE EVERY YEAR IN THE
SPRING. IF THESE WERE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS, IT WOULD BE MUCH EASIER TO
FCAST, BUT SINCE THEY ARE MESOSCALE SYSTEMS, THEY CAN BE VERY
FICKLE. JUST LIKE SAT MORNING, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL IF
THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY. ALL
PARAMETERS ARE AVAILABLE BUT THERE IS NO BOUYANCY AVAILABLE FROM
HEATING WHICH ONE WOULD NORMALLY SEE AS A PROHIBITING FACTOR. BUT
THESE DISTURBANCES ARE MCS FEATURES WHICH THRIVE ON NIGHT
INSTABILITY. THEY NEED LIFT, BUT HEY PRODUCE THEIR OWN LIFT VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE SAME IS GOING ON THIS MORNING OVER AN AREA
FROM ARKANSAS TO TX WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW MUCH THE SAME PATH AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. WE COULD SEE THESE STORMS APPROACH THE AREA
AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYLIGHT TODAY. MONDAY AND TUE LOOK DRY AS
THE WEAKNESS ALLOWING THESE DISTURBANCES TO TRAIN INTO OUR ARE
MOVES NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AFTER TUE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR MEXICO CITY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS INDICATE MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE, SUPPORTING
CONTINUED ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION. WEAKENING OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMES AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ERODES THAT PART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO
NO DIRECT IMPACT LOCALLY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAILING ROUGHLY
24 HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE TRACKS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH, WHICH MAY BEGIN TO
SUPPRESS RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
NO ORGANIZED FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME, SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW GIVEN LIMITED FORCING AND
PERSISTENT RIDGING INFLUENCE.
BY THURSDAY, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND DIG FARTHER SOUTH
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. BY THIS TIME, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA, BUT A WEAK OR BACKDOOR BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO
THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY STALL. IF THIS OCCURS, IT WOULD INTRODUCE
A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD. WHILE THIS SETUP COULD OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS, CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND
PERSISTENCE REMAINS MODERATE AT BEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CIGS AND VIS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ALL VFR
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD REPEAT AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE AS WELL. STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA MOVING SE, WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS STARTING THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THEY
IMPACT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
ANY HAZARDOUS LIMITS AT 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AROUND
THE STORMS THEY PRODUCE. AFTERWARDS, WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR 3-6 HOURS BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
TAKE OVER AGAIN.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE
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