765
FXUS64 KLIX 240533
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS
COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
INCREASING CONCERN. RESIDENTS SHOULD OBEY ALL BURN BANS IN PLACE
AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES OUTDOORS EVEN
IN AREAS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE.
- STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
ALL OPEN GULF WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI, AS
WELL THE SOUNDS AND LAKES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
TROUGHS OVER FLORIDA AND NEAR LAS VEGAS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AT MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN, AND MAINLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BEING CENTERED SOUTH OF MOBILE ON TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS CONTINUING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, PROVIDING FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, SEE THAT SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW. GFS
SOUNDINGS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
OCTOBER (0.80 INCHES) THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND. OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AND A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AT TIMES,
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL
NIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
MOST AREAS ARE JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
NOT A LOT TO SAY THAT HASN'T ALREADY BEEN SAID OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA'S WEATHER
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. EVEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS A BIT IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE,
IT KEEPS A PRETTY STRONG HOLD ON THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO TEXAS AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF LOUISIANA, BUT THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH KEEPS OUR LOCAL
FLOW MORE EASTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY.
WITH THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS, EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED LARGE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH LOWS FALLING INTO UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S MOST PLACES DAILY.
NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
COULD COME NEXT WEEKEND OR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. TIME
WILL TELL WHETHER THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT TO RESULT IN WETTING RAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO GET MUCH ABOVE
10 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THEN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY WINDS
PICKING UP ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL EXPAND TO ALL WATERS
EXCEPT FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN, MAUREPAS, AND SALVADOR BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THESE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SLIGHT RECOVERY ON SUNDAY WITH THE
MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 MPH TODAY AND SUNDAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10, AND 10 TO 15 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP WILD FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL ON THE
HIGHER SIDE. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS OUT DUE TO THIS
HIGHER FIRE POTENTIAL EVEN AS CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA. AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP TO LIMIT FIRE POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ532-534>536-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ551-553-554-
570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ534>536-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ553-554-570-
572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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