798
FXUS64 KLIX 221054
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
554 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING THE AREA BACK TO THE MID 80S FOR
HIGHS BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL.
- THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
NO NEED TO CHANGE PRECIP NUMBERS OR LOCATION TODAY. THU ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL BE LOWERED A BIT FROM 60% TO AROUND 40% FOR THE
EASTERN ATCHAFALAYA, BUT PLACEMENT STILL LOOKS GOOD. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIP. THIS
CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A STRONG SUB INVERSION IS QUITE
EVIDENT AT 900MB. THIS COULD LIFT TO AROUND 850MB BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DEEP. THIS INVERSION IS NOT AS NOTICEABLE TO THE WEST, SO
THERE IS A CHANCE OF GETTING RAIN TO THE WEST. THIS AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGING PATTERN FRI THAT HAS BEEN HOLDING
PERSISTANT. STORMS WILL BREAK OUT TO THE NW WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FOR FRI. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE NEW
STORMS ON OUTFLOWS, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT TURNS OUT TO
SEE IF THEY CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AS THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR
REMAINS STRONG BUT GETTING MOISTENED VERY SLOWLY. AS WE MOVE
DEEPER INTO SPRING AND EVENTUALLY SUMMER, IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO
KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. THIS COULD JUST AN
ISOLATED BASIS MOST TIMES, BUT WITH STRONGER HEATING, THIS STARTS
TO BECOME A DAILY RITUAL WHEN STORMS DO FORM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A NOTICEABLE TREND TOWARDS A DRY WEEKEND ADVERTISED BY THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, THIS INCLUDES ALL 3, THE GFES, ECS, AND CMCE. THAT
ISN'T QUITE THE CASE WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AS ALL THREE HAVE
SOME RAIN MAINLY SATURDAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY JUST BEFORE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BUT THE RAIN COULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IF IT DEVELOPS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY AND QUITE WARM
WITH THE FORECAST EXPLICITLY SHOWING HIGHS HITTING 90S DEGREES FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURE WISE NBM IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS ACTUALLY A TOUCH WARMER IN
SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS STILL MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
REGARDS TO RAIN ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
DRY. THE POPS AREN'T OUTRAGEOUS ONLY 30-40 IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA BUT THE QPF SEEMS A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS AREA WISE WITH
THE VALUES. GIVEN THE ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY NO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE FROM THE NBM
THAT COMES IN LATER TONIGHT.
OVERALL THE CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS IS ONLY MINOR BUNT THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE
RIDGE QUICKLY TRYING TO BUILD BACK IN, POSSIBLY EVEN AS FAST AS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY THAT GETS SUPPRESSED FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MEXICO EVENTUALLY
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A DRIER AND HOTTER FORECAST WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND NOW FOR A
FEW DAYS. THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST
COAST/WESTERN CONUS L/W TROUGH ANCHORING BACK TO THE WEST AND
DIGGING ALONG THE COAST ONCE AGAIN. THE INCREASE IN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND OVER THE BAJA WILL MOSTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT LOOK FOR
THE MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE HEAT RISING.
WITH THAT HEAT IMPACTS BEGIN TO BECOME A GREATER CONCERN THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LET'S BE HONEST YES UPPER 80S AND EVEN
A FEW LOWER 90S ISN'T NECESSARILY HOT BUT FOR APRIL HOWEVER, FIRST
THIS IS RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THE
BIGGEST ISSUE IS MANY PEOPLE WON'T QUITE YET BE CLIMATIZED TO THOSE
TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S.
WITH THIS JUST REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND UNDERSTAND THAT HEAT
EXHAUSTION COULD CREEP UP ON YOU FASTER THAN YOU WOULD TYPICALLY
THINK RIGHT NOW. A FEW MORE WEEKENDS OF TEMPS LIKE THIS OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MOST PEOPLE WILL BE FINE BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST
WEEKEND WITH THESE TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE EVENTS OCCURRING THIS
WEEKEND IF YOU ARE OUT THERE JUST BE PREPARED. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A NOTICEABLE TREND TOWARDS A DRY WEEKEND ADVERTISED BY THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, THIS INCLUDES ALL 3, THE GFES, ECS, AND CMCE. THAT
ISN'T QUITE THE CASE WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AS ALL THREE HAVE
SOME RAIN MAINLY SATURDAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY JUST BEFORE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BUT THE RAIN COULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IF IT DEVELOPS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY AND QUITE WARM
WITH THE FORECAST EXPLICITLY SHOWING HIGHS HITTING 90S DEGREES FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURE WISE NBM IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND IS ACTUALLY A TOUCH WARMER IN
SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS STILL MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
REGARDS TO RAIN ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
DRY. THE POPS AREN'T OUTRAGEOUS ONLY 30-40 IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA BUT THE QPF SEEMS A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS AREA WISE WITH
THE VALUES. GIVEN THE ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY NO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE FROM THE NBM
THAT COMES IN LATER TONIGHT.
OVERALL THE CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS IS ONLY MINOR BUNT THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE
RIDGE QUICKLY TRYING TO BUILD BACK IN, POSSIBLY EVEN AS FAST AS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY THAT GETS SUPPRESSED FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MEXICO EVENTUALLY
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A DRIER AND HOTTER FORECAST WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND NOW FOR A
FEW DAYS. THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST
COAST/WESTERN CONUS L/W TROUGH ANCHORING BACK TO THE WEST AND
DIGGING ALONG THE COAST ONCE AGAIN. THE INCREASE IN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND OVER THE BAJA WILL MOSTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT LOOK FOR
THE MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE HEAT RISING.
WITH THAT HEAT IMPACTS BEGIN TO BECOME A GREATER CONCERN THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LET'S BE HONEST YES UPPER 80S AND EVEN
A FEW LOWER 90S ISN'T NECESSARILY HOT BUT FOR APRIL HOWEVER, FIRST
THIS IS RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THE
BIGGEST ISSUE IS MANY PEOPLE WON'T QUITE YET BE CLIMATIZED TO THOSE
TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S.
WITH THIS JUST REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND UNDERSTAND THAT HEAT
EXHAUSTION COULD CREEP UP ON YOU FASTER THAN YOU WOULD TYPICALLY
THINK RIGHT NOW. A FEW MORE WEEKENDS OF TEMPS LIKE THIS OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MOST PEOPLE WILL BE FINE BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST
WEEKEND WITH THESE TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE EVENTS OCCURRING THIS
WEEKEND IF YOU ARE OUT THERE JUST BE PREPARED. /CAB/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THERE WILL BE CIGS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FROM HUM TO BTR DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. CIGS COULD FALL TONIGHT INTO MVFR AT BTR AND EVEN
LOWER AT MCB TOWARD SUNRISE THU.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TE
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