469
FXUS64 KLIX 012328
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
628 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE LOW, ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
DAY, PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
- TROPICAL STORM EDUOARD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
MAKING LANDFALL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM EDUOARD WAS APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE
RIVER AT LATE MORNING. ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE APPEARED TO BE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOST AREAS DRY AT
ANY ONE TIME. NOON TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING 90 DEGREES, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL KNOCK THOSE BACK SEVERAL DEGREES
WHERE THEY OCCUR. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S, BUT
SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
EDUOARD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER EAST TEXAS TONIGHT WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
BRIEFLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE
EASTERLIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GULF FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH VALUES GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE (1.95 INCHES).
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD JUST SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER BASIN, WHERE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. AREAL
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, AS THE IMPULSE IN THE
EASTERLIES APPROACHES. WE EXPECT A FEW OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE
RATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS EACH DAY, BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES AREN'T ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME.
THREAT MAY INCREASE A BIT BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, BUT NOT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN SOLUTIONS TO STATE ANYTHING WITH CONFIDENCE.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK, ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MAY
HOLD THINGS ON THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE. NBM DAYTIME DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE SHORT TERM, BY A
DEGREE OR TWO, AND MAKING ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT KEEPS HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
NO REAL INDICATIONS OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, SO THERE'S LIKELY TO BE
DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILARLY, THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE MUCH
OF A DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN HIGH OR LOW TEMPERATURES. THE DETERMINING
FACTOR WILL BE THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT ANY ONE
LOCATION. THE LOCATIONS THAT SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT ON A GIVEN DAY
WILL HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME REACHING 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WE MOVE BEYOND 15Z, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP AS TEMPERATURES WARM. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AND PROB30 WORDING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILING RESTRICTIONS IS IN PLACE AT HUM, BTR, MSY, AND NEW FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z TOMORROW. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AT AN HOUR OR LESS AS THE STORM CELLS QUICKLY PASS
THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WITH TS EDUOARD FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA, CONDITIONS IN
OUR WESTERN WATERS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO BE DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page