643
FXUS64 KLIX 212240
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
QUITE THE NICE DAY TODAY IF YOU LIKE COOL TEMPS. LUCKILY IT WAS
FULL SUN WHICH KEPT IT FROM FEELING TOO CHILLY. THIS IS SETTING UP
THE AREA FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW
IMPACTS EXPECTED. FIRST WILL BE MODERATE TO LIGHT FREEZING
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF/3RD OF THE CWA AND THE 2ND ISSUE
COULD BE SOME FOG TUESDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT WILL BE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OVER THE AREA LEADING TO WINDS QUICKLY DECOUPLING WITH TEMPS QUICKLY
FALLING THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE BL
SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP. IN
ADDITION WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GET PRETTY CLOSE TO THOSE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. NBM IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE SPREAD SO WE WILL TREND CLOSER
TO THE MOS AND NBM50. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MS AND THE PEARL RIVER AND PASCAGOULA DRAINAGE AREAS. JUST
OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS AND ACROSS THE I-12 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH
COASTAL MS LOWS SHOULD FALL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WHILE THE RIVER
PARISHES AND WEST BANK SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 30S AND THE
SOUTHSHORE CLOSER TO 40.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW SLOWLY SETTING BACK BUT
IT WILL TAKE TIME TO SEE MOISTURE RECOVER. AS FOR THE FOG POTENTIAL
TUESDAY MORNING IT IS NOT QUITE LOOKING AS FAVORABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. AS MENTIONED THE RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY BE SETTING BACK UP
WITH MOISTURE LIKELY NOT REALLY RECOVERING UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER AND THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A STRATUS DECK. BY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND INTO THE
AREA BUT OVERALL PROBABLY LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES. CHRISTMAS EVE AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST
BECOMES FOR MORE UNCERTAIN AND ACTIVE. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS QUICKLY STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN EVEN AS
EARLY AS CHRISTMAS DAY. ONE THING FOR SURE IS IT WILL BE ACTIVE
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND EVEN THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WITH TIMING, STRENGTH, AND AMOUNTS WE
WILL STICK RATHER CLOSELY TO THE NBM.
FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. A RATHER IMPRESSIVE IMPULSE WILL DROP DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A S/W DIGGING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
PROBLEM IS THE MODES ARE ALREADY DIVERGING WITH A STRONGER FASTER
IMPULSE IN THE GFS AND A WEAKER SLOW ONE IN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE S/W. IT ALSO A RIDGE
ABV THE TROUGH WHERE THE GFS IS MORE OF A [PHASED TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND A AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THAT THE GFS
QUICKLY BRINGS SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT MAYBE EVEN BEFORE 6Z. THE ECMWF DOESN'T REALLY BRING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. RIGHT
NOW EITHER SOLUTION MAINLY JUST BRINGS RAIN, EVEN WITH A STRONG S/W
SOLUTION WE DON'T RECOVER ENOUGH TO REALLY INCREASE THE INSTABILITY.
WITH THAT IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF CHRISTMAS
COULD BE A LITTLE WET.
NOW THE ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT IT IS QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTING. THIS DROPS A VERY WEAK FRONT INTO
THE REGION BUT IT DOESN'T MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND QUICKLY RETREATS
NORTH OF COMPLETELY LOSES ITS IDENTITY. THIS MEANS WE DO NOT GET
CLEANED OUT BY ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR DISTURBANCE AND LEAVES AN
UNSETTLED AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. AT THIS TIME FROM THURSDAY
AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND EACH COULD
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF CONVECTION INTO THE AREA BUT STRENGTH/SEVERITY
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE. ONE THING
TO MENTION IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A POTENT
SYSTEM AROUND THE 26TH/27TH TIME FRAME FOR SOME TIME. A FEW TIMES
THEY HAVE LOST IT BUT THEN COME BACK A RUN OR TWO LATER. WITH SO
MUCH ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND THE MODELS WILL STRUGGLE
SOMEWHAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE THREAT OF SOME
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND WEEKS END. MAYBE AS
FAR SOUTH AS OUR AREA BUT EVEN IF NOT HERE IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
BETWEEN THE 25 AND 28TH PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST BETWEEN
HERE AND YOUR DESTINATION AS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT YOU COULD
SEE THOSE IMPACTS FROM POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. /CAB/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 438 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
NO ISSUES FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN SIGHT. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 438 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN FOR NOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL IN CONTROL. THE SFC HIGH STARTS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TOMORROW AND THIS WILL SLOWLY LEAD TO ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO START TO RETURN
OVER THE OPEN WATERS ACROSS THE GULF. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 27 55 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 34 60 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 30 58 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 40 57 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 33 57 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 29 60 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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