595  
FXUS64 KLIX 080403 AAB  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1003 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 429 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022  
 
FOG THAT IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM, BESIDES THE DARN HEAT OVER  
THE AREA. THIS ABNORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TO WITH HIGHS  
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE 80S TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY. MAYBE  
WE WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT AS CLOUDS AND EVEN RAIN CHANCES BEGIN  
TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.  
 
NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGE WILL  
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND THE BL WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST. WITH LESS  
CLOUD COVER ALREADY COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, NO DRY AIR, AND LIGHT  
WINDS THE CONDITIONS ARE PRIME FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG NIGHT DUE TO  
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY INITIALLY  
BUT THEN FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND THEN  
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN  
ISSUED.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME BUT THERE IS SOME  
SLIGHT INDICATION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME RECYCLED CONTINENTAL DRY  
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE FOG  
ISSUES AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.  
 
SATURDAY WE MAY FINALLY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE  
RIDGE WILL BEING TO BECOME SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG S/W MOVING  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL TRY TO PUSH A  
COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT AT THE LEAST IT SHOULD ALLOW  
HGHTS TO LOWER A TAD AND MAY EVEN SEE A SUBTLE WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THAT MAY HELP  
KEEP HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...YAY ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S AND NOT  
LOWER TO MID 80S, WHOOP-DE-DOO. /CAB/  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 429 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022  
 
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO SEE THINGS WAKE UP  
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
AND THEN ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A RATHER POTENT SYSTEM MID  
WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MEDIUM  
RANGE GUIDANCE BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME  
MUCH MORE IN LINE THAN JUST 24-36 HOURS AGO. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT  
THIS STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL AND IT COULD BRING A POTENT SEVERE  
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY DEVIATIONS MADE TO  
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THE LATEST NBM.  
 
SUNDAY AND JUST INTO THE WORK WEEK WE WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK WSW TO  
EVEN ZONAL FLOW AS THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH.  
THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT AND INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL TRY TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN  
TOWARDS THE REGION. WITH THE RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED THIS FRONT MAY BE  
ABLE TO SINK INTO THE AREA BUT IT COULD THEN STALL OVER US AND WITH  
THE WSW TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR  
CONVECTION TO TRY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND  
IF THERE IS ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.  
 
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL THE POTENT L/W TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE  
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM  
THE PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST. BY LATE  
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY IT WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF OVER MUCH  
OF THE CONUS JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL BE A  
RATHER LARGE DEEP LOW BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT STARTS  
MOVING MORE EAST. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIG MUCH MORE AFTER THAT BUT  
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST HGHTS WILL FALL  
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE  
STRONG JET SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT  
DYNAMIC THAT WE WILL SEE MORE THAN ENOUGH JET SUPPORT WITH SOME OF  
THE GUIDANCE EVEN TRYING TO INDICATE A SECONDARY JET CORE/MAX MOVING  
RIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NOT GOING TO GET INTO THE DETAILS  
AS THIS IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT BUT THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH SUGGESTING  
THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. YES THERE  
ARE SOME NEGATIVES BUT IF THE NEGATIVES COME INTO PLAY TO BRING DOWN  
THE SEVERE RISK IT APPEARS IT WOULD ONLY INCREASE THE RISK FOR HEAVY  
RAIN. SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHWESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA OUTLOOKED AND  
FOR DAY 7 THIS IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. THIS AGREES WITH OTHER LONG  
RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND CIPS WHICH ARE HIGHLIGHTING  
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. /CAB/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022  
 
THE REMAINING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL  
BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS ON  
THURSDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER SIGNAL OF MORE REDUCED VIS/CIGS BY THE  
END OF THIS CYCLE TOMORROW NIGHT, OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. (FRYE)  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 429 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022  
 
STATUS QUO FOR THE MARINE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES  
THE REGION BUT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO. DENSE FOG IS  
LIKELY AGAIN OVER THE COOLER SHELF/NEAR SHORE WATERS. NO MAJOR  
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE MARINES ZONES UNTIL NEXT WEEK AS WE DON'T SEE  
A FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOG IS  
THE MAIN CONCERN AND WE WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT OVER THE  
COMING DAYS. /CAB/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 63 83 59 80 / 0 0 0 10  
BTR 65 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 10  
ASD 60 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0  
MSY 65 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0  
GPT 62 79 60 80 / 0 0 0 0  
PQL 60 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-  
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-  
536-538-550-552-555-557.  
 
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-  
080>082.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-  
538-550-552-555-557.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CAB  
LONG TERM....CAB  
AVIATION...RDF  
MARINE...CAB  
 
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