281
FXUS64 KLIX 172040
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
240 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXTURE
(PROBABLY FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SLEET) LATE NIGHT MAINLY
LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF A PICAYUNE TO HOUMA LINE. NO
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS FROM THIS.
- WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG/NORTH OF I-12 IN LA AS WELL AS THE
MS COAST COULD SEE SUB FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR 3
CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS, SUNDAY MORNING THRU TUESDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NOW
INTO SUNDAY FROM WINDS 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 6-9 FEET
OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE ENTIRE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE US IS UNDER A DEEP
AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AM EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE STEADILY DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA AS POST FRONTAL
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN
USHERING IN MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL....EVIDENT BY THE
MOSTLY VIRGA CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN AND PIVOT FROM VERY POSITIVE TO ALMOST
NEUTRAL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THAT SHARPENING CAUSES FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO
ACCELERATE. THAT ACCELERATION THEN INCREASES POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ON THE EAST/SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WHICH
AT THIS POINT IS OVER SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE REAL SHARPENING UNTIL RIGHT AS OR AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES ACROSS THE CWA. THINK THIS IS A KEY REASON WHY FORCED ASCENT
FROM THE PVA DOESN'T REALLY GET FRONTOGENESIS GOING ALONG THE LA
COAST BUT RATHER MORESO INTO COASTAL MS/AL AND POINTS EAST. SO THAT
MID/LEVEL JET ALOFT IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WHICH CAN DELAY THE TIMING OF
MOISTURE SURGE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LIKELY
EXPLAINS THE VARIATIONS PLACEMENT/TRACK OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
RAIN SHIELD DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. SATURATING THE COLUMN
IN THE -10 TO -20 DENDRITIC ZONE IS SO IMPORTANT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW FLAKES. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS IN SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA, WETBULB DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEFORE DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BE A CHALLENGE. YOU SEE THAT IN THE BATON
ROUGE SOUNDING WHERE JUST AS THE MID LEVELS SATURATE, DRY AIR
PUNCHES IN. FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE COASTS OF LA AND MS, THERE'S A
LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR AND HENCE WHY CAMS AND GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW PRECIP THERE.
TAKING TIMING OF ALL THAT INTO CONSIDERATION, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS SWATH OF SHOWERS, MAYBE WITH SMALL POCKETS OF A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET OR RAIN/WET SNOW, MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA SOUTH OF THE
LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITHIN A FEW HOURS ITS ALL OVER THERE AND
MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES ON THE BACK END. RAIN SHIELD STEADILY
MOVING EAST, THE MS COAST COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE MIXTURE OF
SLEET/SNOW WITH RAIN FOR A COUPLE HOURS RIGHT BEFORE 12Z.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LOCATION
AND OVERALL LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP AND IF IT DOES
HAPPEN, MORE LIKELY TAIL END OF THE EVENT LOCALLY WHICH WOULD BE
THE MS COASTAL COUNTIES. REGARDLESS, IF ANY RAIN AND SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE DEVELOPS, ANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING
FROM STICKING ON ROADWAYS WITH ONLY LOW POTENTIAL ON METAL OR
GRASSY AREAS. THEN, BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, TEMPS ARE ALREADY WELL INTO
THE 40S. COLD BY CLIMATE STANDARDS BUT WARM IN TERMS OF FROZEN
PRECIP POTENTIAL.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BUT NO RAIN EXPECTED. STRONG CAA WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
DON'T RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CLOUD DECKS ARE THOUSANDS OF FEET
HIGH. SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHRA MOVING SW TO NE BUT SURFACE OBS
HIGHLIGHT THE SATURATION CHALLENGE OF THE COLUMN IN ITS CURRENT
STATE. OVER TIME, SHOULD START TO SEE A BETTER CORRELATION BETWEEN
RADAR ECHOES AND WHATS SEEN AT GROUND LEVEL. PROB30 STILL SEEMS
MOST APPROPRIATE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO TEMPO OR
PREVAILING FOR TERMINALS ALONG A KMSY TO KGPT LINE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THOSE.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ITS
NOT A PARTICULARLY STRONG FRONT BUT BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY BUMP
BACK UP TO EXERCISE CAUTION CATEGORY BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE SCY AT THE
MOMENT. A SHORT-TERM PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW DOES DEVELOP MID WEEK AS
POST FRONT RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION SLIDES EAST BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 26 46 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 28 49 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 29 50 29 59 / 20 0 0 0
MSY 36 51 35 59 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 33 49 31 57 / 30 0 0 0
PQL 30 50 27 58 / 40 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ550-552-570-
572.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ552-570-572.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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