640
FXUS64 KLIX 261058
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
558 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, QUIET WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY. WHILE THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME A
CONCERN MAINLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VERY DRY COOL MORNINGS AND WARM DAYS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY,
WHICH IS REMINISCENT OF OCTOBER TYPE WEATHER. STRANGE THING IS
SEPTEMBER IS NORMALLY WETTER THAN OCTOBER, AND THIS MAY END UP
BEING THE CASE THIS YEAR AS WELL, BUT IT WON'T SEEM LIKE IT AS WE
MOVE FROM SEPTEMBER INTO OCTOBER THIS TIME, BUT WE'RE GETTING
AHEAD OF OURSELVES. THE DRY AIR WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY
SO ENJOY IT WHILE ITS HERE BECAUSE IT WILL GET REPLACED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BUT, THE GOOD THING IS THE
DRY AIR WILL BE BACK AT SOME POINT DURING OCTOBER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS
INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT WILL WARM AND DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF LESS THAN 5.0C/KM. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. THE END RESULT WILL
BE A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 90S. FORTUNATELY, THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING HEAT
INDICES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AS A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE POLO MERGE INTO THE SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY, THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA, BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH AND A BROAD REGION OF HIGHER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL SUPPORT BOTH PWATS RISING BACK TO THE MEDIAN FOR LATE SEPTEMBER
AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL SOME
SUPPORT ALOFT, THE CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE EXCEPT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MUCH WETTER PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL THEN SET UP ACROSS THE GULF
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN USHERS IN A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND FOR THE RAINFALL
RATES TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE BROAD REGION OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE FORCING ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY IMPULSES TO SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE REPEATED PERIODS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY START TO
SATURATE AND SOME FLOODING ISSUES MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE MID 80S
ON FRIDAY AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL EASE WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SE BY TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THE RISE FURTHER INTO
MID NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE COAST.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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