759
FXUS64 KLIX 241134
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
534 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME, WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL OF THIS TIME IF YEAR. CURRENT
STATE OF THE UPPER LEVELS IS TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHEAST, RIDGE AXIS
JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW NOW EAST OF THE 4-
CORNERS. AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IT WILL BE
OPENING UP. EVEN SO, A SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEARLY
UNDERNEATH IT. A COLD FRONT APPENDANT TO THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE EAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY. FARTHER EAST, OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND LOCAL CWA, WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD FEEL PRETTY OBVIOUS WITH DEWPOINTS
JUMPING UPWARDS OF 15 DEGREES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING PRETTY MUCH EVERY SINGLE HOUR FROM 15Z TO 21Z.
THAT'LL AIDE IN MOISTURE INFLUX IN THOSE LAYERS IN THOSE HOURS. SO
WHEN IT COMES TO RAIN CHANCES, PROBABLY WON'T SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING
UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTERNOON, STARTING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS. FROM MON
21Z TO TUE 06Z, WE POSSIBLY START TO SEE MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFTS
DUE TO NOW DECENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN, A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT, AND SHEAR INCREASING. HOWEVER, ITS NOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
KMSY AND KGPT SOUNDINGS DON'T HAVE NEARLY THE SHEAR VALUES THAT KBTR
AND KMCB HAVE. SO, AM IN VERY MUCH AGREEMENT WITH SPC'S REGION OF
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN OUR CWA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT,
CAMS SUGGEST A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF CONVECTION. THAT FALLS IN
LINE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION
DEVELOPING AS WELL AS WEAKENING WINDS WHICH TRANSLATES TO WEAKER
SHEAR. MAKES SENSE WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
SHOULD BE DOING WHICH IS WEAKENING AND PULLING NORTH. THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WASHES OUT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SECONDARY AND DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL DRIVE A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WELL PAST THE LOCAL AREA
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE WEEK. THAT PUTS FROPA BY AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS. MODERATE CAA WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY DROP TEMPS (15+ DEGREES) AND MAINTAIN THAT BEYOND
THANKSGIVING. PROBABLY DON'T MODERATE BACK TO CLIMO NORMALS UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VERY THIN LAYERED FG WILL BE NEAR OR AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT RAPILDY DISSIPATE BRINGING ABOUT VFR CONDITIONS THAT
WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE OF SOME -SHRA MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WE
WILL HANDLE WITH PROB30 GROUPING. CIGS WILL BE AT IFR LEVELS
WITHIN THESE PROB30 GROUPS WITH A FEW PREVAILING AS WELL BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS STEADILY
MOVING EASTWARD. AS IT DOES SO, OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. IT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND FOLLOW ITS PATH INTO OK AND KS. THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE.
THUS, EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST EXERCISE
CAUTION SPEEDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTN/EVN. MODELS SHOW BL WINDS PEAKING IN THE LOW 20S AROUND 06Z ON
TUESDAY AND QUICKLY FALLING OFF TO 15KTS OR LESS BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
OPEN GULF WATERS. 48 HOURS AFTER THAT, ANOTHER (STRONGER) COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MUCH
DEEPER AND BROADER WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS
THAT PERSIST LONGER THAN 12 HRS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 64 78 53 / 20 70 90 30
BTR 81 67 81 56 / 20 70 80 20
ASD 79 64 81 56 / 10 30 60 30
MSY 82 69 84 61 / 10 30 50 30
GPT 76 66 78 59 / 0 20 60 40
PQL 78 63 80 58 / 0 20 50 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...ME
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