822
FXUS64 KLIX 271432
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
932 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 928 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- IMPACTFUL HEAT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NEW WEEK.
MID WEEK WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES 110-115
DEGREES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
PERFORMED A BRIEF SHORT-TERM GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING
TO ALIGN WITH OBS/TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TODAY, AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK. ANTICIPATING A MAINLY DRY DAY OVERALL, BUT WILL
MONITOR EASTERN AREAS (EAST OF I-59) WHERE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION (NOW DISSIPATING) OVER CENTRAL AL MAKES
IT SOUTH. COULD BE A FOCUS POINT FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. WILL
DIVE DEEPER IN THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE COMING RIGHT UP. KLG
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
STRONG HEATING EACH DAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE RELIEF. THE
EXTREME HEAT WATCH THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE TABLE WILL LIKELY
BECOME A WARNING FOR TUESDAY. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF ANY SH/TS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY WED. LARGE SCALE(SYNOPTIC)
PATTERN IS SETTING UP NOW WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE STACKED HIGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONTINENT. THIS FLOW WILL SET OUR AREA IN LINE WITH THE NW
FLOW WHERE THESE TWO SYSTEMS MEET(STALLED FRONTAL AXIS OR "RING
OF FIRE" AS MOST CALL IT). THIS WILL, AT FIRST, BE FARTHER EAST OF
THE AREA UNTIL LATE WED WHEN THIS DEMARKED AXIS MOVES OVER OUR
AREA AND BRINGS MCS STYLE FEATURES SEWARD INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY WED. AT THE MOMENT, THIS WOULD BE THE EARLIEST WE WOULD
SEE SOMETHING REGARDING NUMBERS OF STORMS INCREASE AT LEAST OVER
COASTAL MISS. THU WILL SEE THESE SH/TS REACH FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
THE AREA DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. BY THE TIME THESE STORMS
MOVE IN AND/OR DEVELOP WILL BE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
REACHING THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE DAY, SO HEAT ISSUES MAY
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WED. WE WILL NEED TO REASSESS FOR THU
SINCE THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
GOING INTO FRIDAY MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO ADVERTISE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION. ALOFT, THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
STRONG 601DAM H5 RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE TO THE FOUR CORNERS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOES APPEAR ON THE GFS OVER THE REGION, WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPRESS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON FRIDAY, BUT THE ECM'S
QPF SIGNAL IS THERE FAVORING SURFACE CONVERGENCE A BIT MORE AND IT
APPEARS TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EYES FOCUS TO THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW THERE
COULD BE A LATE SEASON MCS OR TWO WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
AVERAGE QPF VALUES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, ESPECIALLY
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THAT SAID, SOME RELIEF WILL COME IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHERE THE REGION BARELY
TOUCHES THE 90S GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND QPF. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD, ESTABLISHING A
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS WHERE WINDS APPROACH AND SOMETIMES SLIGHTLY EXCEED 15
KNOTS DURING THE EVENING AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056-071-091-093>097.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR LAZ057-058-064-070-076>087-089-090-092-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>085.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...KLG
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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