861
FXUS64 KLIX 021757
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- ONE LAST DECENT DAY OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK, RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR MORE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS
DELTA AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SPRING TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL MS AND EAST
FACING SHORES OF SELA EAST OF THE MS RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE LOWER
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10/12. RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY HIGH (40-60%) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
AREAS AND MARINE WATERS (SOUTH OF I-12). SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS LIGHTNING.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER HAZARD TO KEEP IN MIND WILL BE THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. 1-2 FEET OF INUNDATION WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE OPEN MS
AND LA COASTLINES. PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES CYCLES (SPRING TIDE) WILL HELP TO CREATE COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE LA/MS COASTAL AREAS. 1-2 FEET OF
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE THURSDAY, GENERALLY. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LA OPEN COAST AND THE MS COASTLINE.
MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A RETURN TO A SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE HIGH WEAKENING OVER THE AREA, IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID AS MOISTURE RETURNS. PWS WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME FORECAST MODELS SHOWING PWS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AREAS. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (30-50MPH) WILL
BE POSSIBLE INSIDE STRONGER STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THANKS TO THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD TEMPORARILY DROP
CONDITIONS AT AIRPORTS TO MVFR, SO TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN EFFECT TO
REFLECT THIS FORECAST. WIND SHIFTS GREATER THAN 30 DEGREES WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
EASTERLY AND WILL INCREASE IN SPEED, ESPECIALLY THE WATERS EAST OF
THE MS DELTA WHERE SOLID SCY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND WASHOUT BY THURSDAY AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
LEADING TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE NEEDED TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR LAZ070-076-078-091-093-095-097.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ531-532-534>536-554-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ533-541-543-551-553-570-572.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ532-534>536-554-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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