478
FXUS64 KLIX 121042 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
542 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD INCREASING HEAT, WITH
HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WET PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE NEW
WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH
REGION IS DROPPING TOWARD THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A KEY COMPONENT
IN KICK STARTING THE WETTER PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/WEAKNESS IS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL LIKELY COME ON MONDAY, BUT ANYTIME
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWFA. AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2.0" EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. WPC STILL HAS A
SLIGHT ERO FOR MONDAY. OVERALL QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS
ROUGHLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES, BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN BOTH NEW
ORLEANS AND BATON ROUGE, HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
AND SLOWER MOVING CELLS. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THERE
REMAINS A NONZERO STRONG GUSTY WIND THREAT IN THE STRONGER/WIDER
UPDRAFTS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SIMILAR TO DAYS PAST DID NOT CONSIDER A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY SINCE AGAIN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO START
EARLY (SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS) AND COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS. ALSO, DUE TO MORE SHOWERS/T'STORMS, DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE HELD DOWN, NOT JUST FOR TODAY BUT ALSO ON
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT, MOST OF THE REGION WILL ONLY WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK, WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR JULY. AS CONVECTION COVERAGE DECREASES
BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR ONCE AGAIN RIGHT BACK INTO
THE LOWER 90S...OR TEMPS THAT WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THE
DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER TEXAS. UPPER
RIDGING WILL ACTUALLY BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THIS OCCURS
ON THURSDAY. BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ARRIVES, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY REAL QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE
SOUTHEAST EXTENT OF THE RIDGE PROTECTS THE AREA FROM EASTERLY WAVES
OVER THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT, THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS
INDICATE ANY WAVES WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT IMPACT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. COULD
BE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH NO CONVECTION OVER LAND, ALTHOUGH AT PRESENT,
THURSDAY IS THE ONLY ONE WITH MOST OF THE AREA DRY. MUCH OF THE AREA
IS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THURSDAY INTO (AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH) THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE THAT KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO RISE. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN
A WARMING TREND THAN IN TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDICES REACHING ANY
SPECIFIC VALUE. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED AND HOW QUICKLY HEAT
STRESS INCREASES. A STRONGER RIDGE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WOULD SUPPORT HOTTER CONDITIONS, WHILE A RIDGE
REMAINING FARTHER WEST WOULD PERMIT SOMEWHAT GREATER AFTERNOON STORM
COVERAGE AND LIMIT THE HEAT MORESO. REGARDLESS, MAY BE LOOKING AT
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST LOCAL URBAN AREAS FRIDAY THRU
WEEKEND. (RW)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL GIVE WAY TO BETTER CONVECTION
COVERAGE/CHANCES TODAY WITH REDUCED VIS/CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT WITH ONCE AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS FROM THAT POINT UNTIL THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE BERMUDA RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BRING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING. IN DOING SO, WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE FIELD RELAXES. THAT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS THAT ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN. THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARDS WILL
COME FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GENERALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, VERY HEAVY RAIN, LOCALLY
HIGHER WAVES AND SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY NEAR DEVELOPING EARLY-MORNING CONVECTION.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER GOING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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