185
FXUS64 KLIX 092046
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023
KEY MESSAGE:
1. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR SITUATED ALONG THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR
IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN COMBINATION WITH THIS DRIER AIR HAS LIMITED TOWERING CU
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. WOULD EXPECT POP UP STORM ACTIVITY TO BE
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
SUCH AS THE SEABREEZES AND IN MAJOR RIVER BASINS (I.E. FLORIDA
PARISHES AND SOUTHERN MS). CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH
OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR TODAY AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES THROUGH.
LESS STORM ACTIVITY ALSO MEANS LESS CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH IS
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S.
TONIGHT WILL BE SPENT MONITORING UPSTREAM TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG THE GREAT PLAINS DRYLINE AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS CONVECTION
WILL ORGANIZE WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED MOIST INFLOW AND BEGINNING OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE REINVIGORATION OF THIS DECAYING MCS
AS IT ENTERS ARKLATEX MIDDAY. HOWEVER, 0-6KM FLOW DECREASES
RAPIDLY AS THIS MCS MOVES EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA WHICH COUPLED
WITH WEAKER SURFACE INFLOW WILL MAKE IT MUCH HARDER FOR THE MCS TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF AND IT'S LIKELY THIS FEATURE WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES INTO THE CWA. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING EXACT IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND IS REFLECTED BY SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS WITHIN CAMS.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT IMPACTS FROM THIS MCS, STRONG SURFACE HEATING
(HIGHS IN MID 90S) AND MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK,
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS VIA DOWNBURSTS
(DCAPE >1000 J/KG), 1" OR GREATER HAIL (CAPE >3000 J/KG, 0-3KM LR
> 8.5 C/KM), AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (PWAT >1.6"). POPS ARE
HIGHEST (40-60%) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF BETTER FORCING VIA DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE APPROACHING MCS CAN INTERACT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG COASTAL MS BUT
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPS WILL BE "BALMY" IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND BEGIN A NOTABLE WARMING
TREND TO KICK OFF THE NEW WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023
NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY.
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH MID-
WEEK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION, KEEPING HUMIDITIES UP. GENERALLY FOR THE LONG
TERM, IT WILL BE PRETTY DRY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS (PWS AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3). A SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, BUT IT IS NOT
LIKELY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWER NEXT WEEK AS WELL (<20% FOR THE
MOST PART) AT LEAST IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE
STRONG RIDGING, AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY, NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE HOT! TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOME MODELS ARE TRENDING A
BIT COOLER (LOW 90S). REGARDLESS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 105-108 DEGREES, SO A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT OUTSIDE THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER NEXT WEEK. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG
THE RIDGING IS AND IF THE FORECAST STAYS DRIER. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, IF WE ARE TRENDING WETTER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
BUT IF WE STAY DRY (WHICH IS THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME), IT WILL BE
QUITE HOT WITH NOT A LOT OF SHADE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF, SO PEOPLE
WILL NEED TO REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, WEAR LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING,
AND TAKE CARE OF THEIR PETS AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023
DIURNAL CU IS GRADUALLY BUILDING PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR AND LESS AGITATED THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. STILL
ANTICIPATING VCTS NEAR KMCB, KASD, KGPT, AND KHDC IN THE COMING
HOURS WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO INCLUDE
IN FUTURE TEMPOS AS IMPACTS BECOME CLEARER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF TS IMPACTS AND ANVIL/CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM
STORMS SHOULD ABATE BY LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2023
WEAK SURFACE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
NOCTURNAL WINDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. NOCTURNAL STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, WATERSPOUTS, AND EVEN HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ARE GREATEST EAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD TO THE MS SOUND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN
WINDS COULD WARRANT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 92 68 91 / 20 60 30 40
BTR 73 95 72 94 / 10 40 20 20
ASD 72 94 73 93 / 10 40 30 30
MSY 75 93 74 91 / 10 40 20 30
GPT 72 90 73 88 / 30 40 30 40
PQL 70 93 72 91 / 30 40 30 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
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