336
FXUS64 KLIX 051807
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
107 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BUT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
A FAIRLY TYPICAL AUGUST ATMOSPHERIC SET UP. GENERALLY, AT THE
SURFACE WE ARE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST WITH A
VERY WEAK CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE IN BETWEEN. THIS
BRINGS THE TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS FOLLOWING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND OFFSHORE CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT INTO THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
TYPICAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AN HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. THE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO MANAGE THE
HIGHS AND KEEP US JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLDS FOR HEAT HEADLINES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DISPLACED WEST
OF THE REGION, WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE
MAINTAINS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH NO WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED, CONVECTION WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER INLAND DURING PEAK HEATING. WEAK STEERING
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN WILL FAVOR SLOW-MOVING, PULSE-TYPE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT WILL
LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM ONE LOCATION TO ANOTHER EACH DAY.
LITTLE MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS CURRENTLY
APPARENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND ONLY SUBTLE FORCING, ALLOWING THE
DAILY MARINE AND SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO CONTINUE. ANY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE
COVERAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THEIR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD SOME LOCATIONS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS, BUT WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS HEAT
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. [MEFFER/SCHLOTZ]
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10/12. WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY
EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
SO SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE CYCLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /SCHLOTZ/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS BEING
ABSORBED BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. THE LOW- LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHILE
LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALTER FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THURSDAY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY.
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
COMMON, IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION, OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND
WITH THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOONS. /SCHLOTZ/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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