139
FNUS75 KMSO 160841
FWSMSO
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILLIAMS CRK. FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
241 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 MDT ON JULY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. MONSOON MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA,
WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE FIRE ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY WINDOW TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE FROM
500-1000PM, WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS, LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
REST OF TODAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....20 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
* MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........EAST 3-6 MPH.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.00 INCHES.
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...20 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....50 PERCENT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
* MAX HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 6-7 MPH.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.00-0.05 INCHES.
FRIDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...10 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....UP TO 10 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
* MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........WEST-NORTHWEST 5-9 MPH.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10500 FT AGL.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.00 INCHES.
FORECASTER...LUKINBEAL
REQUESTED BY...PETER JACOBSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617324.3/MSO
.DELDT 07/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL PETER.A.JACOBSON@USDA.GOV
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