307
FNUS75 KMSO 122140
FWSMSO
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELDER FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
340 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 MDT ON AUGUST 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ONLY
LIMITED TO AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY, BUT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
THERE IS 30-50% CHANCE OF 48 HOURS RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 0.25 INCH
BETWEEN THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
YOU MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, EVEN IF THE ACTIVITY IS WELL AWAY
FROM THE FIRE SITE. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE, WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. IT MAY LEAD TO
VARIABLE DIRECTION AT TIMES. LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY INFLUENCE WITH LIGHT DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND UP-SLOPE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIES WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURE AND HIGHER RH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. GOOD
RH RECOVERY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WIND SHOULD HELP
WITH SMOKE DISPERSION, BUT PATCHY SMOKE MAY STILL BE TRAPPED
OVERNIGHT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
THURSDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SMOKE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...10 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....25 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
* MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........EAST 5-10 MPH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EARLY
MORNING,SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-9 MPH GUSTS TO 15
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5-8 MPH TURNING TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0-0.04 INCHES.
THURSDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SMOKE. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...20 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....30 PERCENT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
* MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
* MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5-8 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0-0.06 INCHES.
FRIDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...60 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....40 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
* MIN HUMIDITY........70-76 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........EAST 2-5 MPH GUSTS TO 10 MPH.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 MPH TENDING SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.02-0.2 INCHES.
FORECASTER...BOOTH/JUNSMITHBOM
REQUESTED BY...GREG ANDERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2618254.21/MSO
.DELDT 08/12/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JACOB.N.FALLIS@USDA.GOV,GREGORY.J.ANDERSON@USDA.GOV,CODY.ISHLER@USDA.GOV,LANCE.ALTMAIER@USDA.GOV,ERIN.OLOUGHLIN1@USDA.GOV
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