183  
FNUS75 KTFX 051001  
FWSTFX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDER...FWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT  
401 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JULY 05.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH  
THE DAY TODAY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT/NEAR THE INCIDENT AREA. ABUNDANT PACIFIC  
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO SUPPORT  
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS  
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH GOOD MOISTURE RECOVERY  
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE PROBABILITY  
FOR SEEING 0.5" OF RAINFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEING A 30%  
CHANCE. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 1100 AND 2100 LOCAL  
TIME TODAY COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC  
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...45 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.  
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH  
AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........67 47 50 54 48 51 52 62 78 84 81 77  
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC LKY DEF LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 60 60 60 60 60 60  
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 50 50 50  
TEMP............60 61 63 65 67 69 73 74 76 76 76 74  
RH..............78 76 71 69 63 57 51 49 48 48 51 50  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E SE E E E N NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW W W W SW SW SW S S SE E  
RIDGE WIND SPD..15 15 15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.0 5.0 3.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E NE NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 15 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 15 15 15  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING.  
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...44 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
RIDGETOP...........VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
INCREASING TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........73 71 73 71 55 60 30 27 19 24 27 27  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH  
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10  
CHC OF THDR (%).40 40 40 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............74 73 70 68 65 63 62 61 60 59 58 57  
RH..............51 53 54 62 69 76 76 79 82 83 84 85  
20 FT WIND DIR..S NE NW W SW W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
RIDGE WIND DIR..E NE NW W W W SW W W NW NW W  
RIDGE WIND SPD..0 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 15 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W NW NW W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 10 5 10 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...7 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
RIDGETOP...........WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........40 26 14 7 14 19 24 24 24 36 36 36  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............57 59 61 63 69 72 74 76 79 80 82 82  
RH..............85 80 74 66 60 51 43 38 35 33 31 29  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
RIDGE WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W  
RIDGE WIND SPD..20 15 15 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 10 10 10  
 

 
 
FORECASTER...MOLDAN  
REQUESTED BY...SCHELL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2517374.0/TFX  
.DELDT 07/05/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL ANDREW_SCHELL@FWS.GOV, TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV  
 
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