047
FNUS75 KTFX 311452
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK SMITH 11B...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
852 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON APRIL 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH AN
EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS AND GUSTS OF UP TO 15 MPH. AN INCOMING
TROUGH WILL BRING BETTER WETTING PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS FALL TO 5,000FT BY THURSDAY MORNING,
SWITCHING RAIN TO SNOW. THERE'S A 30% CHANCE FOR 0.10" OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 70% CHANCES BY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT,
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........41 41 68 68 68 68 68 68
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RS RS RS RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 30 30 30 30 30 30
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............37 40 42 44 45 45 45 44
RH..............73 69 66 64 63 63 63 63
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 20 20 20 15 15
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 3 AM.
CWR.................70 PERCENT DECREASING TO 35 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
WEST AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........92 92 92 92 92 92 88 88 88 88 88 88
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............70 70 70 70 70 70 40 40 40 40 40 40
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............43 41 39 37 36 35 35 35 34 34 33 33
RH..............65 69 74 79 82 85 87 88 89 89 89 89
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SE SE SE S S S W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.5 3.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW.
CWR.................85 PERCENT INCREASING TO 95 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING
TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........98 98 98 98 98 98 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............90 90 90 90 90 90 100 100 100 100 100 100
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............33 34 35 35 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 32
RH..............89 88 87 87 88 90 92 92 92 91 89 88
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 25 25 25 35 35 35 35 35 35
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 25 25 25 25
FORECASTER...WILSON
REQUESTED BY...CASEY HAMILTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2608629.0/TFX
.DELDT 03/31/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CASEY.HAMILTON@USDA.GOV, TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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