779
FNUS75 KTFX 121021
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR MINI HORSE RX...USFS HELENA RANGER DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
421 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MDT ON APRIL 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO OR NEAR THE INCIDENT AREA OVER THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
PROBABILITY OF A WETTING RAINFALL AT THE INCIDENT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT IS A 90% CHANCE, WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
EXCEED 0.5". THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE INCIDENT AREA
TODAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, WITH
A 30% CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS EXCEED 25 MPH.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...19 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 15
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........17 45 53 49 55 54 66 83 75 82 84
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY DEF
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RN RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 50 50 50 50 50 50
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............37 39 42 46 50 52 54 56 54 54 53
RH..............80 78 74 65 60 54 52 52 52 56 57
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W N NE NE NE NE E NE N N
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W NE E SE SE SE S E NE N
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 15 15
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING,
THEN RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................70 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...16 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........86 90 85 86 85 68 65 69 56 71 71 67
WEATHER COV.....LKY DEF DEF CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............70 70 70 70 70 70 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 48 47 45 44 44 43 42 41 41 40 40
RH..............64 70 73 79 80 79 80 78 76 75 75 77
20 FT WIND DIR..N NW W W NW W SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NW W W W W SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...13 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........84 84 84 84 84 84 90 90 90 90 90 90
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............39 38 39 41 43 45 46 47 48 49 50 50
RH..............78 79 80 72 67 64 62 59 57 56 55 54
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 25
FORECASTER...MOLDAN
REQUESTED BY...PHILIP QUIGLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2609604.4/TFX
.DELDT 04/12/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
KYLE.A.MILLER@USDA.GOV,LEWIS.TAFELMEYER@USDA.GOV,PHILIP.QUIGLEY@USDA.GOV,
TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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