183
FNUS75 KTFX 051001
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDER...FWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT/NEAR THE INCIDENT AREA. ABUNDANT PACIFIC
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO SUPPORT
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH GOOD MOISTURE RECOVERY
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE PROBABILITY
FOR SEEING 0.5" OF RAINFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEING A 30%
CHANCE. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 1100 AND 2100 LOCAL
TIME TODAY COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...45 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........67 47 50 54 48 51 52 62 78 84 81 77
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC LKY DEF LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 60 60 60 60 60 60
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 50 50 50
TEMP............60 61 63 65 67 69 73 74 76 76 76 74
RH..............78 76 71 69 63 57 51 49 48 48 51 50
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E SE E E E N NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW W W W SW SW SW S S SE E
RIDGE WIND SPD..15 15 15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.0 5.0 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E NE NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 15 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 15 15 15
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...44 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGETOP...........VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
INCREASING TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........73 71 73 71 55 60 30 27 19 24 27 27
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).40 40 40 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............74 73 70 68 65 63 62 61 60 59 58 57
RH..............51 53 54 62 69 76 76 79 82 83 84 85
20 FT WIND DIR..S NE NW W SW W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
RIDGE WIND DIR..E NE NW W W W SW W W NW NW W
RIDGE WIND SPD..0 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 15 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W NW NW W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 10 5 10 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...7 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGETOP...........WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........40 26 14 7 14 19 24 24 24 36 36 36
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............57 59 61 63 69 72 74 76 79 80 82 82
RH..............85 80 74 66 60 51 43 38 35 33 31 29
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
RIDGE WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
RIDGE WIND SPD..20 15 15 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 10 10 10
FORECASTER...MOLDAN
REQUESTED BY...SCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517374.0/TFX
.DELDT 07/05/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANDREW_SCHELL@FWS.GOV, TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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