293
FNUS75 KTFX 172356
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR GULCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
556 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
AFTER A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND
LOOKS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY AFTER NOON FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER BY THE EVENING,
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO BE A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.50" AND 1"
RAIN FROM NOON FRIDAY THROUGH NOON SATURDAY IS 70% AND 50%
RESPECTIVELY.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...29 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........65 65 58 52 53 54 37 25 29 46 47 58
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).15 30 30 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............74 71 69 63 62 62 61 60 57 56 55 55
RH..............45 50 56 63 67 66 67 68 75 75 77 76
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW W W W SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW W W W SW W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 5 10 5 5 5 5
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...35 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........47 51 47 43 33 22 27 34 46 61 75 81
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 20 20 20 20
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 15 15 20 25 35
TEMP............55 53 55 58 61 61 64 68 69 70 71 69
RH..............77 77 75 73 71 72 66 59 53 48 48 50
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S SW NW NW N N N N N NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 10
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W NW N N W NW N NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 15
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
RAIN OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................75 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...32 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........90 90 90 94 94 94 98 98 98 98 98 98
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY DEF DEF LKY LKY DEF LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............80 80 80 80 80 80 90 90 90 90 90 90
CHC OF THDR (%).30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............67 66 63 61 61 60 60 60 59 59 58 57
RH..............60 63 66 69 72 73 72 72 74 75 77 80
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N NE N N N N N N NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 10 5 10
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN IN THE MORNING,
THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................75 PERCENT DECREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...24 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 88 88 88 78 78 78 78 78 78
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............80 80 80 80 80 80 50 50 50 50 50 50
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............56 55 55 55 55 55 56 57 59 60 59 59
RH..............80 82 84 85 87 88 88 84 79 75 75 77
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NW N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
FORECASTER...MCDOWELL
REQUESTED BY...KYLE MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621433.12/TFX
.DELDT 09/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL KYLE.A.MILLER@USDA.GOV, TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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