949
FNUS75 KTFX 211023
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR JERICHO CREEK FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
423 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE INCIDENT AREA THIS WEEKEND. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25
MPH OR GREATER WILL INCREASE TO A 40% CHANCE BY SATURDAY, A 75%
CHANCE BY SUNDAY, AND A 70% CHANCE BY MONDAY; WITH A 5% AND 15%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS, WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...12 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGETOP...........NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........91 95 91 86 81 76 67 52 50 63 45 48
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SNF
TSTM COV........
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............32 30 32 33 37 39 40 42 44 46 46 48
RH..............100 98 94 87 81 74 68 63 60 56 52 48
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
RIDGE WIND DIR..NE NE NE N N N N N NW NW NW NW
RIDGE WIND SPD..20 20 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...3 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 3 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 8
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
RIDGETOP...........NORTH 0 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATE IN
THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........46 36 54 36 22 21 39 49 43 55 59 54
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............47 46 44 39 36 34 33 33 32 31 31 31
RH..............48 50 60 71 77 80 83 81 81 82 82 82
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NW W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
RIDGE WIND DIR..NW N N N N W SW SW SW SW SW SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..5 5 5 0 0 5 5 5 10 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.0 4.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NW NE SE S SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........55 55 55 41 41 41 35 35 35 37 37 37
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............30 33 36 40 47 51 53 54 56 56 57 58
RH..............81 73 64 54 47 41 37 34 32 31 29 29
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W
RIDGE WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 10 9.5 8.0 8.5 9.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W NW W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 10 5 5 5 10 10 15 15 10 15 15
FORECASTER...MOLDAN
REQUESTED BY...WILL MENNING
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613863.4/TFX
.DELDT 05/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MEGAN.NOLTE@USDA.GOV,MTHDC@FIRENET.GOV,WILLIAM.MENNING@USDA.GOV,SCOTT.NELSON@DNR.WA.GOV, TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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