452
FXUS65 KGGW 051941
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1241 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WARMEST DAY WILL BE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
- SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BRING UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH 50% CHANCES FOR
STRONG 55+ MPH GUSTS FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA IS
FORCING SOME MOISTURE TO FALL AS LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO BE
COMMON.
ON FRIDAY, THE FLOW WILL BE POST-FRONTAL FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
SOME CHINOOK WARMING TO START. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN WIDESPREAD
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, WITH GLASGOW
NEARING SUNDAY'S RECORD OF 63. GUSTY WINDS OF 30+ MPH ARE A
CERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, WHILE THE THREAT FOR
GUSTS OVER 55 MPH WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE LITTLE ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON THE LEE SIDE. WHILE THE NBM GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN OVERDONE LATELY FOR WIND PROBABILITIES (ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY), THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR MAX GUSTS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY STILL SHOWS 60 MPH FOR ZORTMAN. A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE, LOWERED
TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH ALSO MINIMIZED ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
BUT LOW TO MODERATE FOR IF AND WHERE HIGH WINDS OCCUR.
-JEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: IFR-VFR (MAINLY MVFR)
DISCUSSION: LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH AROUND 15Z FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
COINCIDING WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SKIES GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY 18Z FRIDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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