970
FXUS65 KGGW 191004
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WILL PROCEED SOME
CLEARING BY THE EVENING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- COLDER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
DENSE FOG HAS MATERIALIZED AND EXPANDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HI-
LINE, DOWN INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MCCONE AND RICHLAND COUNTIES.
MODELS LIKE THE CONSHORT HAVE IDENTIFIED THE AFFECTED AREA WELL
AND SHOW IMPROVEMENT STARTING IN PHILLIPS COUNTY AFTER 12Z, CONTINUING
EAST BY AROUND 16Z WHEN THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRES.
HOWEVER, AN EXTENSION WOULD BE NECESSARY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DOES NOT HELP TO MIX THE LOWER LEVELS OUT WELL OR AS QUICKLY THIS
MORNING.
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
GENERALLY KEEP MONTANA UNDER A RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAINTAINS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARD A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
THERE ARE WIDE VARIATIONS IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN THE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL THAT
NORTHEAST MONTANA STAYS MOSTLY DRY IF THE STORM TRACK STAYS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
STUCK WITH THE BASE FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR ADDING DETAIL TODAY USING
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE FOG, WINDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR LITTLE
FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE FOG THIS MORNING AND IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES BEFORE 18Z. THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR NEXT
WEEK.
-JEZ
AVIATION
UPDATE TIME: 1000Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MOSTLY MVFR-VFR, AFTER AREAS OF VLIFR-IFR IN
MORNING FOG
SYNOPSIS: LOW CLOUDS HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND AS DENSE
FOG FOR MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, TO INCLUDE
KGGW AND KOLF. THIS IS EXPANDING TOWARD KSDY AND KGDV, BUT THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR FOG TO OCCUR THERE LATER THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
FOG TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 14-18Z, BUT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING FOLLOWS THIS
EVENING. LOOK FOR NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY OF
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS.
EQUIPMENT: KOLF'S ASOS TELECOMM CIRCUIT IS DOWN AND CAN NOT BE
DIALED INTO. THEREFORE, AMD NOT SKED FOR THIS TAF UNTIL REPAIRS
CAN BE MADE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-EASTERN
ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-RICHLAND-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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