966
FXUS65 KGGW 140805
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
205 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN ZONES UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. MOST OF THE REST
OF THE CWA IS UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE NORTHERN
ZONES ESCAPING THE BRUNT OF THIS.
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES TO PUSH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR LOCAL
REGION, AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THE RESULTANT BAND OF
SNOWFALL COVERS MOST OF THE STATE OF MONTANA SOUTH OF THE HI-
LINE. INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT, GOOD
MODEL DATA CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT AREA OF SNOWFALL ALSO PUSHING
FURTHER NORTHWARD TO ALSO ENCOMPASS THE HI- LINE. THE PERIOD OF
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH GUSTY ENE WINDS SEEMS TO BE 3 AM TO 9 PM.
WE EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN 9 TO 13 INCHES OF SNOW FOR OUR SW
ZONES, 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES, AND TRACE TO 3
INCHES FOR THE HI-LINE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DURING THE PERIOD
OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL, EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON VISIBILITY CONDITIONS IN CASE STRONGER WARNINGS MAY
BE NECESSARY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN FOR THE SW ZONES AND WIBAUX COUNTY.
UPGRADED PRAIRIE AND DAWSON COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
THERE IS NOW 50-60 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THOSE COUNTIES. THERE IS
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIER OF ZONES
NEIGHBORING THE WARNING AREA. THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF OUR ZONES
REMAIN WITH NO HEADLINE, BEING UNDER THE THREAT OF LESS THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH NE WINDS FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY END UP WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL DROP INTO EASTERN MONTANA LATER THIS
WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CWA. NOT HEADLINE WORTHY BUT WILL BE FELT AS UNUSUALLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. THIS COULD PUT SOME UNWELCOME
STRESS ON NEWBORN AND YOUNG LIVESTOCK.
NOT TO BE OUTDONE FOR DRAMA, ON THE HEELS OF THIS COLD AIR MASS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A STRONG AND VERY WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S DEGREES POSSIBLY WARMER BY WEDNESDAY. AREA
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ICE
BREAKING UP AND WATER LEVEL RISING DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT.
ESPECIALLY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOW FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
SOUTH OF US 2 AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOW FORECAST NORTH OF US
2. THE DRY AIR ON THE NE WINDS WILL LIMIT SNOW IN THE NORTH BUT IT
HARD GAUGE AT THIS TIME HOW WELL THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE SNOW.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOW AS MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS COVER. IF SKIES ARE CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW WILL BE COLDER
THAN THE GOING FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITH SNOW COVERED GROUND. NBM
10 CURRENTLY HAS LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO.
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM UP STARTING MONDAY WEST AND
TUESDAY EAST ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM UP INITIALLY.
RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTH TODAY FOR A MORE CONSISTENT AND
CONTINUOUS SNOW FORECAST. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES FROM THE
NBM.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT: VFR EARLY BECOMING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO A
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW IN A SWATH FROM
NW MONTANA TO SE MONTANA AND SW NORTH DAKOTA. LOW CEILINGS WILL
EXTEND NORTH INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WHILE SNOW WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS: WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING AND BECOME NE 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MDT
SUNDAY FOR EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR GARFIELD-
PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR DAWSON-PRAIRIE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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