004
FXUS65 KGGW 232125
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
WIND CHILLS DROPPING AS LOW AS 50 BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NE
CORNER OF THE STATE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD
WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER
THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
NORTHEAST, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA. THE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WILL END FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. UNTIL
THEN, PERIODS OF WIND CHILLS OF 40 BELOW OR COLDER ARE NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, MOSTLY WHEN FORCED UPSLOPE. A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND
PETROLEUM COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA, WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE BASE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR HIGHER RESOLUTION WINDS AND GOING WITH ABOUT THE MEDIAN OF THE
NBM FOR TEMPERATURES, GIVEN A DETERMINISTIC WARM BIAS IN THE
EXTREME COLD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP
AFTER SUNDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON SATURDAY.
-JEZ
AVIATION
PATTERN: THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AND WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHILE CEILINGS LOWER TO PATCHY MVFR ON
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: EVEN THOUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, COLD TEMPERATURE IMPACTS AT ALL NE MT TERMINALS WILL MAY
CAUSE ICING PROBLEMS AND EQUIPMENT FAILURE DUE TO EXPOSURE,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DAWSON-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
WIBAUX.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM MST SUNDAY FOR DANIELS-EASTERN
ROOSEVELT-NORTHERN VALLEY-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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