306
FXUS65 KGGW 051857
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1257 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY.
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, WITH
A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SW PHILLIPS COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WHILE MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE COMMON
INTO MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST AND IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST BY TUESDAY...IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS, BRIEF WARM
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE 70S AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA,
FOLLOWED BY A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND WHAT TYPE IS SEEN FROM THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL
MONTANA. WHAT IS CERTAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GUSTY WINDS,
SOLID FOR HEADLINE CONCERNS FOR FORT PECK LAKE WHILE LIKELY BELOW
HIGH WIND FOR MOST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. A HIGH WIND WARNING
WAS ISSUED FOR SW PHILLIPS COUNTY 3PM TUESDAY TO 12PM WEDNESDAY
WHERE THERE IS AROUND A 60% CHANCE FOR CRITERIA TO BE MET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
BLENDED WINDS WITH HI-RES MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AND BLENDED
WITH NBM 90TH FOR INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY WITH
THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CLIMATOLOGY
SUPPORT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS MEETING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES STARTING MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA TO BE MET IN SW PHILLIPS COUNTY.
-JEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGH THE
CYCLE, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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