606
FXUS65 KGGW 030130
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
730 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX WILL FLIP TO SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE
ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES FOR MOST OF NE MONTANA, WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER CORRIDOR FROM TERRY TO SIDNEY AREAS. 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF WIBAUX COUNTY.
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING FROM WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS
AS A COLD RAIN AND WINTRY MIX OVERTAKE MUCH OF NE MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER TIME, PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW BY TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE STEADY AT TIMES BEFORE
ENDING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM PRIOR SHIFT THINKING AS MUCH OF NE
MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO SEE A BROAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THIS ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED COLDER SURFACES SUCH AS CAR TOPS OR COMPLEX TERRAIN SUCH
AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, WET AND/OR SLUSHY ROADS COULD
BECOME SNOW COVERED TONIGHT WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
APRIL SUN. FURTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER CORRIDOR
FROM TERRY TO SIDNEY, SNOWFALL WILL BE STEADIER AND MORE
PERSISTENT. THIS IS WHERE A BROAD 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
WIBAUX COUNTY IS CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK, AND CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING THERE REMAINING IN PLACE.
BOTTOM LINE, WINTRY CONDITIONS FROM A LATE SEASON SYSTEM WILL
BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO THE REGION FROM SNOW COVERED ROADS,
LOW VISIBILITY, AND STRESS TO NEWBORN LIVESTOCK.
SECONDARILY, BREEZY E WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FORT PECK LAKE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER REMAIN EXPECTED BUT
ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE PACIFIC SHORE
TRANSLATING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY BY TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM AND NBM90 WERE USED TO BRING WIND GUSTS IN LINE WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. NBM OTHERWISE WAS SUFFICIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD,
CAPTURING THE OVERALL EXPECTED PATTERN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE WINTRY MIX AND SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT PERHAPS MORE MODERATE ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS DUE TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE ISSUES, WARM GROUND COMPLICATIONS, AND APRIL SUN ANGLE
PLAYING MITIGATING FACTORS. MEANWHILE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A
GENERAL WARM UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AT
LARGER TIME SCALES FOR NOW.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2215Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - LIFR
DISCUSSION: MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. LOW CEILINGS AND A COLD
RAIN/WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL DROP
VISIBILITY TO IFR. AIRPORT SHUTDOWN CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE IN BETWEEN 06Z AT KGGW AND 10Z FOR
THE OTHER TERMINALS AND LAST THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z BEFORE SNOW THINS
OR CEILINGS BEGIN TO RISE.
WIND: E TO SE 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS TODAY. SWITCHING
E TO NE AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING. BECOMING NE
TO N AND REDUCING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
/GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
NORTHERN VALLEY-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
DAWSON-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WIBAUX.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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