183  
FXUS65 KGGW 171620  
AFDGGW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT  
1020 AM MDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MORNING UPDATE...  
 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS  
MORNING ACROSS PETROLEUM AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LOOK FOR THIS  
ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. A COUPLE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, PRIMARILY  
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA.  
 
-MOTTICE  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING AND WILL  
DRIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A COLD  
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. GUSTY NW  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A  
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
WITH THE FRONT BEING LATER IN THE DAY IN THE EAST, TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE 80S THERE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHILE THE WEST WILL ONLY  
REACH THE 70S.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO THIS  
MORNING AND EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,  
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND ATMOSPHERE WILL BE  
UNSTABLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THE EAST WITH THE  
MARGINAL RISK IN THE SPC OUTLOOK.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE  
WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP  
THE FORECAST AREA DRY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR  
NORMAL.  
 
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY WHILE  
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE  
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE WEST. THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON SW FLOW ALOFT  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE ROUNDS OF  
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL  
MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.  
 
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MODELS  
DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND THAT. FORRESTER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
FLIGHT CAT: VFR TODAY AND MOST OF THE TIME TONIGHT.  
 
DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS  
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AROUND NOON AT  
KGGW AND THIS AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH WEST TO NW  
WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE  
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOST OF  
THE TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR  
CONDITIONS.  
 
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING  
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 15 TO 30  
KNOTS THAT WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE  
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.  
 

 
 

 
 
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  
 
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