307
FXUS65 KGGW 132213
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY EVENING.
- EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST AND 9 PM THIS EVENING IN THE EAST AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
ARE TRIGGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 80 MPH! BUT WITH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE,
THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES, BUT VERY STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL KEEP THEM GOING ALBEIT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING, THEN
EXIT INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR BOTH THE CONVECTIVE WINDS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY AND SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
WITH THE SUSTAINED WINDS BEING HIGHER THAN THE MIN RH FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. NASA GREENNESS MAPS WERE SHOWING GREENNESS IN THE SW
ZONES, BUT TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE, DECIDED TO INCLUDE THEM IN THIS
EXPANSION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL. EXPECT IT
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BUT A STEADY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE UPPER LOWS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS WERE MADE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2200Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS EVENING, BRINGING A SUDDEN SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SE OR S
TO WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AROUND 02Z AT KGGW TO AROUND
08Z AT KSDY.
CLOUD LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. IF
SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA, THEY WILL MAKE WINDS GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN
THE VICINITY.
THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS, DIMINISHING A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FRIDAY. TFJ
EQUIPMENT: NO OBS FROM KSDY. TAF WILL BE AMD NOT SKED UNTIL OBS
RETURN.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES-NORTHERN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND
SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-
NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-
RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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