247
FXUS65 KGGW 310916
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 AM MST WED DEC 31 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
THOUGH WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT.
2) BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DRAG LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND INFLUENCE NE MONTANA WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SEEING LOWS EACH DAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. MEANWHILE,
LOWS OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND SOUTH OF FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AND 40S EACH DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO MELT AND DRAG
THE MOISTURE UP OVER THE FRONT FOR FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND LIKELY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH EXTENT, INTENSITY AND TIMING BEYOND
TONIGHT ARE NOT WELL KNOWN.
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN AND SLIDE EAST WITH ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THAT SAID, DO NOT SEE MARKED
SHIFTS IN TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM NBM WERE OBSERVED.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE RELATIVELY HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FOG IS MODERATE TODAY AND
LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LOW AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A
WIDE VARIABILITY IN LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM HERE ONWARD.
GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - AIRPORT SHUTDOWN
DISCUSSION: HIGH TO MID CLOUDS WILL LEAVE CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH
ABOUT 13-15Z. THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DRAG LOWERING CLOUDS IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL LEAD TO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CEILINGS
AND THEN REDUCING VISIBILITY WITH FREEZING FOG. FLIGHT CATS COULD
LOWER DOWN TO NEAR AIRPORT SHUTDOWN AT TIMES WHICH COULD LAST AT
KGGW AND KOLF THROUGH ALMOST 21Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW LONG THE FOG WILL STAY BEYOND MID
AFTERNOON AS ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE A FIRM GRAPPLE ON VISIBILITIES
BEYOND THIS POINT YET. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT FOG COULD
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT INTENSITIES AND PLACEMENT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE AND LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THESE ELEMENTS.
WIND: LIGHT AND SLOWLY VEERING FROM W THIS MORNING TO E AROUND
NOON BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINING LIGHT AND E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BECOMING VARIABLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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