660
FXUS65 KGGW 152019
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
- TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY WITH A
CHINOOK; HIGH WIND HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SNOW MELT WILL INITIALLY SLOW WARMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS PULLED SOUTHWARD TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN, A BROAD RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION. A CHINOOK STARTING EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING RAPID
WARMING AND RESULT IN A QUICK SNOWMELT. AREA CREEKS, STREAMS AND
RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ICE BREAKING UP AND WATER LEVEL
RISING (PARTICULARLY INTO PETROLEUM COUNTY). THIS RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARM AND GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. WHILE THE SNOW COVER HAS POTENTIAL TO INITIALLY LIMIT
THE MIXING DOWN OF HIGH WINDS, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE
LITTLE ROCKIES WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LATEST NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES POINT TO GREATER THAN
80% CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH TUESDAY IN SW PHILLIPS
COUNTY, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT STARTING 8PM
MONDAY. SURROUNDING COUNTIES HAVE A HIGH WIND WATCH WITH PATCHES
OF AROUND 50% PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WINDS AS SHORT TERM HREF GUIDANCE
STARTS TO COME IN WITH STRONGER MIXING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATED ON WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCOMING CHINOOK BY
BLENDING WITH CONSHORT, HIRESWFV3 AND NBM90. CONFIDENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES IS MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER TO MELT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ALSO
EXISTS FOR AN UPGRADE OR EXPANSION TO THE HIGH WIND HEADLINES.
-JEZ
AVIATION
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ALONG
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHINOOK ALOFT WILL
INCREASE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-PETROLEUM.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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