429
FXUS65 KGGW 122138
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
338 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
- A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED STARTING TONIGHT, WITH MOST
FALLING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS, PETROLEUM AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES.
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL FLOW FROM A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET.
A DEEP TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CA PUTS MONTANA IN A GOOD
POSITION TO RECEIVE AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM THE ALBERTA LOW WILL DRAG COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD,
FOR AN INCREASE IN OVERRUNNING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA FOR SEVERAL DAYS, LEADING TO
SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS, PETROLEUM
AND PORTIONS OF GARFIELD COUNTIES. AS THE SNOW TENDS TO EXPAND
EAST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY WHEN MOST WILL FALL, AN ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO BRING A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRYING TREND.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF THIS WEEKEND'S SNOWFALL AND
REMAINING RIVER ICE, AS THE PATTERN SUPPORTS NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS MODERATE, WITH THE GRADIENT ON THE
NORTHEAST STARTING TO BECOME MORE FIXED AND CLEAR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL RECEIVE MUCH LESS SNOW THAN
INITIALLY ANTICIPATED, AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WOULD RECEIVE UPWARDS
OF 12 INCHES IN A HIGH END SCENARIO.
-JEZ
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT: MOSTLY VFR, PATCHY MVFR AFTER 15Z FOR TAF SITES
DISCUSSION: AS SEVERE CHINOOK WINDS START TO WIND DOWN, THERE ARE
STILL SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS WITH MVFR FROM BLOWING DUST
AT KGDV THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH HEAVY SNOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR KGDV AFTER 12Z,
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DAWSON-EASTERN
ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GARFIELD-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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