234
FXUS65 KGGW 121923
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
123 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
- HOT WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AS A TROUGH DROPS INTO
WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA
THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.
A ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE HOT AIRMASS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING ALONG THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES COULD INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HUMIDITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW
TURNS MORE FROM THE SOUTH, SO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MAINLY FOLLOWED NBM BUT DID BLEND OTHER DATA FOR POPS FOR TONIGHT.
ALSO ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AS THE 12Z HREF WAS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTS TO 50-60 KTS.
ALSO INCREASED WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. TFJ
AVIATION
UPDATED: 1930Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
DISCUSSION: A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
A WIND GUST TO ABOUT 40 KTS.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING A WIND SWITCH AND SOME
CLOUDS. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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