930
FXUS65 KGGW 182043
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
- A TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS ZONAL FLOW AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME CERTAINTY OF A TROUGH MOVING
IN ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH CERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TOMORROW FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
BY THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL MEANDER EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, ENABLING
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BEGIN DIGGING OVER MONTANA.
THE COMBINATION OF TROUGH-DRIVEN FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY.
AS OF THE MOST RECENT NBM RUN, PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO
END BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES
SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND THIS POINT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE ONLY DEVIATION WAS TO WINDS FOR THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY PERIOD.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND SIMILAR CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TROUGH TIMING LATE THIS
WEEK AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: THE WEATHER WILL BE BENIGN BESIDE SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE NEXT ONE DAY.
WIND: W-NW WINDS AT 08 TO 12 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 01Z, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 17 KNOTS
AFTER 09Z, INCREASING TO 15 TO 19 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 12Z TO 16Z OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
35 TO 40 KNOTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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