250
FXUS65 KGGW 120910
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
310 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.
- A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PETROLEUM AND
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTIES, WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR GARFIELD COUNTY.
- THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL FLOW FROM A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET.
A DEEP TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CA PUTS MONTANA IN A GOOD
POSITION TO RECEIVE AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TODAY IS SPINNING
UP AN ALBERTA LOW AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE REGION. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURING AHEAD OF THIS LOW, WITH RAIN OR WET SNOW
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST, GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG WITH THE JET, TO PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES UP,
LEADING TO PRECIP TRENDING TOWARD RAIN. WITH THIS TREND, HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE ALBERTA LOW WILL DRAG COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD, FOR AN INCREASE IN OVERRUNNING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CWA FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS, PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES. HAVE UPGRADED WINTER
STORM WATCH TO WARNING AND ADVISORY. POTENTIALLY WILL NEED TO
EXPAND THE AREA OR TIMING OF BOTH HAZARDS FOR SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS MODERATE AT BEST. TOTALS CONTINUE
TO RAISE AND TRACK SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
NORTHEAST ZONES WILL RECEIVE LESS SNOW THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED,
AND SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF 12 INCHES IN A HIGH
END SCENARIO.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AS RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOSTLY RAIN
IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING.
A QUICK AND WIDESPREAD PUSH OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN AFTER 15Z TODAY, PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. GUSTS
GREATER THAN 50 KTS ARE LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN
VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR GARFIELD.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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