748
FXUS65 KGGW 202122
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
222 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE BEING GRADUALLY
CANCELLED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
- SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE INFLUENCE OF A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS IS ALREADY BEING FELT
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST, AS SHORT TERM
CHINOOKING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CLIMBS UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR AWAY ANY LINGERING
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL CONCERNS BY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND: EVEN THOUGH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SOME SNOWFALL TO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE OVER AND NEAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS, SUCH
AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE EXPECT
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL, BUT STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM OVERALL.
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT DEPARTING TIMING OF -25 TO -40
WIND CHILLS THIS EVENING. MIGHT HAVE SOME WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH
BEFORE IT'S COMPLETELY DONE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY.
AVERAGE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE GUSTY NW
WINDS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2120Z, MONDAY AFTERNOON, JANUARY 20TH
VFR THROUGHOUT.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MAY STILL IMPACT FLIGHTS FROM NOW THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. EXPECT CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES NOT INTO THIS EVENING,
THEN SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING BKN OR OVC WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THEN SET UP FROM THE SW AND W AROUND 10 TO 25 KTS TONIGHT. BY
TUESDAY MID-DAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD W WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR DANIELS-DAWSON-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-RICHLAND-
SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR MCCONE-PRAIRIE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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