279
FXUS65 KGGW 101947
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
147 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PEAKING
ON WEDNESDAY.
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED MONDAY FOR GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS
ALSO IN EFFECT MONDAY.
- THE FORECAST BECOMES POTENTIALLY WETTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON MONDAY SPECIFICALLY, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALOFT
BRINGING PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS
BELOW 20 PERCENT. WHEN COMBINED WITH A LOW GREENNESS INDEX AND
STRONG NW WIND GUSTS, HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF 2026 SO FAR EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY HAVE HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ADDING
TO ONGOING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS THEREAFTER TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOME AND BRING SMALLER SYNOPTIC RIDGE/TROUGH
COUPLETS EMBEDDED IN IT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE WETTING RAINS OR EVEN A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
DEPENDING ON WHETHER IT MATCHES UP WITH PEAK HEATING. INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHAT DAY/TIME ANY GIVEN
RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET MOVES THROUGH THOUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY IS HIGH
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THUNDERSTORM AND WETTING RAIN
CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-JEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WIND: SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 KTS, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 14-17Z AND STRENGTHENING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS.
EQUIPMENT: NO OBS FROM KSDY. TAF WILL BE AMD NOT SKED UNTIL OBS
RETURN.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING UPGRADE ISSUED FOR ALL FIRE ZONES. PERSISTENT PERIODS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN BRINGS WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES THAT CAUSE GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS AND ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT LIKELY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE GREATEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES 120/122 WHERE GRASSLAND FUELS ARE CRITICALLY
RECEPTIVE AS ERCS ARE EXCEEDING THE 97TH PERCENTILE. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 137 AND ZONE 135 WITH SOME GREEN UP AND MORE
100/1000 HOUR FUELS ARE OF LESS CONCERN. THE PATTERN THE REST OF
THE WEEK REMAINS WARM AND DRY, PRESENTING REPEATED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER WHEN WINDS PICK UP OR SHIFT. WEDNESDAY IS THE NEXT DAY OF
MORE CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE 90S, GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RH AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT. NO OPPORTUNITIES FOR WETTING
RAIN EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
-JEZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES-NORTHERN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND
SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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