251
FXUS65 KGGW 090645
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1245 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA INTO DANIELS, SHERIDAN, EASTERN ROOSEVELT, RICHLAND, AND
WIBAUX COUNTIES BEFORE PUSHING INTO NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING.
- A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE. HREF MAX
ENSEMBLE WIND GUST AND UPDRAFT HELICITY GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
ENSEMBLE 40DBZ REFLECTIVITY ALL SHOW CONSENSUS ON WHAT IS EXPECTED
TO UNFOLD. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
INTO DANIELS, SHERIDAN, EASTERN ROOSEVELT, RICHLAND, AND WIBAUX
COUNTIES BEFORE PUSHING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN ABOUT 3PM AND 8PM ON THE MONTANA SIDE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WITH HAIL AS A SECONDARY THREAT.
OF NOTE, THE SPC D1 OUTLOOK CARRIES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH A SLIGHT RISK RIGHT UP
AGAINST THE MT/ND BORDER.
ZONAL FLOW WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LOOK TO CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
BUT MORE ACTIVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER FOR THE QPF, NOTABLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING THAT MUCH OF
NE MONTANA WILL SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. AS THIS
IS FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, DAYS 5 THROUGH 7, WILL
AWAIT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE HAVING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS, BUT THIS WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD WORTH FOCUSING IN ON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
POPS WERE ADJUSTED NEAR TERM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS AND
TO BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
AS SUGGESTED BY EXCELLENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE ALSO CONTINUES TO EMERGE TOWARD A WETTER AND MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: SUNDAY AUGUST 9 AT 545Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: SKY WILL TEND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW OR SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. HAZE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT TIMES FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE, BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A
SURFACE IMPACT TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
WIND: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AT 10 TO 20
KTS, BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AT A 5 TO 15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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