156
FXUS65 KGGW 071852
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1252 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LONE
THUNDERSTORM IS ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, STRONG NW WINDS, AND
PRE-GREENUP FUELS HAS LEAD TO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THE
EAST FRIDAY
- A SLIGHTLY WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE OVER PETROLEUM, SW PHILLIPS,
AND SW GARFIELD COUNTIES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
SUNDAY AND RUN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
CURRENTLY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER THE HUDSON BAY WHILE A
RIDGE RUNS UP THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST FROM CALIFORNIA TO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
THE FLOW PATTERN AND DRAG SOME WEAK AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DOWN FROM THE THE NORTHWEST WHICH MAY
DIE OUT ALONG THE WEST IN THE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL QPF TOTALS
LOOK TO BE AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING NO RAIN.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: RIDGE TO THE WEST PRESSES HARDER TO THE
EAST AND DRAGS WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL STRENGTHEN UP JUST PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT EVENING AND ALLOW FOR LOW RH AND STRONG
NW WIND. LOOKING AT GOES NDVI MOST AREAS ACROSS THE EAST ARE
AROUND OR BELOW 20-30% GREENNESS AND THROWING THAT INTO THE MIX
MEANS THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THE EAST WAS NECESSARY FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SATURDAY: WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PREVIOUS NIGHT A
ZONE OF LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST FRONTAL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INCLUDING PETROLEUM, SW PHILLIPS, AND
SW GARFIELD COUNTIES. QPF TOTALS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE A WETTING RAIN WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE
DRY. TEMPS SHOULD DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK: RIDGE TO THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION, FLATTEN, AND THEN REBOUNDS IN THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE UP TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS SUB-SYNOPTIC DETAILS WASH OUT WITH EITHER A TROUGH OR RIDGE ON
ANY GIVEN DAY DEPENDING ON THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MAIN NBM DEVIATION WAS TO HOURLY POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
RAISING POPS ACROSS THE WEST SLIGHTLY, THOUGH THEY ARE STILL MUCH
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 120 AND 122.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH ACROSS PETROLEUM, SW PHILLIPS, AND SW GARFIELD COUNTIES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1630Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD DRIFT THROUGH THE
AREA FROM 20 TO 02Z. CHANCES OF A HIT ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AND
THEREFORE NOT IN THE TAF DIRECTLY AND OVERALL IMPACTS IF THEY DO
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW VFR.
WIND: NW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING LIGHT AND W TO
VARIABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BECOMING W AND INCREASING
TO 10 TO 20 KTS FRIDAY AFTER SUNUP.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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