130
FXUS65 KGGW 190522
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1122 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME
RECORDS CHALLENGED.
- THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A CHINOOK PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH THE AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHERN END OF A HEAT DOME RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPED AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE
NBM PREDICTED. THIS LEADS INTO THE IDEA OF TOMORROW BEING SIMILAR
TO TODAY AND THERE IS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW
AS A RESULT. HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SNOWFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND
ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE FIRE CONCERN. WHILE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY, SOME MORE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS
IN THE 70S HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE BROKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE REMAINS INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO BREAK DOWN, MAINTAINING THE UNUSUAL WARM AND DRY
PATTERN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD
NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DECREASED HUMIDITY TO NEAR THE ENSEMBLES MINIMUM AND BLENDED
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO
OBSERVED MODEL BIAS WITH MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO BE
ADDED.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING TOMORROW BASED ON FUEL UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0500Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: SOME CHINOOK MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
LLWS: THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WEST NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OCCURRING AROUND KGGW, KOLF AND KSDY FROM
09Z TO 16Z.
WIND: WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING TO TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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