884
FXUS65 KGGW 310641
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1241 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR SOME
OF THE STORMS TO AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
- THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDER CONTINUING.
- THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS YET
AGAIN BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE PROLIFIC RAIN MAKERS WITH THE LATEST HREF 3
HOUR MAX QPF GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NE MONTANA DURING THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 50S AND 60S AND THESE SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VERTICAL. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
TENDING TO TRACK ALONG AN AXIS OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SITUATED
OVER THE AREA, TENDING TO MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND
THIS WILL TEND TO CONTINUE FOR TODAY.
THIS EVENING, AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE WEST AND INCREASE, WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY SET FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES WANT TO PUSH THE LOW
EASTWARD WITH A SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIVERGENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS HOWEVER. THUS, WILL KEEP
SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY ABOUT
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, CONTINUING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS LARGELY FOLLOWED THIS CYCLE. THAT SAID, POPS WERE ADJUSTED
FOR COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY ACROSS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON WET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
THOUGH LESSER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS BRINGS INTO QUESTION SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON
WHEN EXACTLY IT MIGHT DRY OUT. THAT SAID, BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THERE IS INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR A NARROW DRY PERIOD TO UNFOLD
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MARCHES IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
UPDATED: SUNDAY MAY 31, 2026 AT 0600Z.
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
DOWNPOURS.
DISCUSSION: LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE AGAIN, SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE INTENSE AND PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS.
WIND: SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS,
SHIFTING WEST THIS EVENING AND INCREASING TO A RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KTS, GUSTING TO 35 KTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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