863
FXUS65 KGGW 011950
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
150 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER DAWSON, PRAIRIE, AND WIBAUX COUNTIES, WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER REMAINING NE MONTANA.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE FIRST AREA OF FOCUS ON THE FORECAST IS IN THE NEAR TERM AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE
PAUSE, TO SIMPLIFY MESSAGED OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE DURATION, THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY, ATTENTION FOCUSES ON A LATE SEASON WINTER TYPE STORM SET
TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST OUT OF
WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS PLACES THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE STORM TRACK, CLOSE ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. CURRENTLY, THE NBM SHOWS SUPPORT FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
PRAIRIE, DAWSON, AND WIBAUX COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
APPEAR MOST LIKELY. FOR THE 2 INCH THRESHOLD, THERE EXISTS A
ROUGHLY 50 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NE MONTANA. FOR THE 6 INCH THRESHOLD, THERE
EXISTS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS WIBAUX COUNTY, AND AROUND
A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OVER THE REMAINING WATCH COUNTIES, AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE SWITCHOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCURS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH SNOW DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM GROUND, HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL
REPRESENT UNCERTAINTY. IMPACTS COULD RANGE FROM WET, SLUSHY, OR
SNOW COVERED ROADS, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND STRESS TO NEWBORN
LIVESTOCK.
ENSEMBLES SHOW COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
SHORE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE MAIN DEVIATION INCLUDED BLENDING IN A MIX OF NBM90 AND NBM TO
NUDGE NEAR TERM WINDS UPWARD IN LINE WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS. MEANWHILE, POPS WERE ALSO MASSAGED FOR
COLLABORATION AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, WINDING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MATERIALLY LOWER
ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES, AS WELL AS
MILD GROUND TEMPERATURES AND/OR A HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE. SNOWFALL
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO ACCUMULATE MORE EFFECTIVELY AT NIGHT, ON
GRASSY OR COLDER MORE ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS CAR TOPS (OR
COMPLEX TERRAIN), OR ON ROADS WHERE INTENSITY INCREASES.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND THE TROUGH.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: WEDNESDAY APRIL 1, 2026 AT 1945Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - MVFR TODAY, VFR - MVFR - IFR TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: EXPECT VFR INITIALLY, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND SOW
MIX CHANGING TO SNOW.
WIND: EAST TO SE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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