013
FXUS65 KGGW 090930
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY STRONG WEST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH, GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 5PM THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH COLD GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL TO LEAD TO ICY SURFACES IN SOME AREAS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW THEN SHARPLY FALLING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ICY CONDITIONS.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
HELP MIX DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. NBM ENSEMBLE MAX WIND GUSTS SHOW WIDESPREAD 50 TO 60
MPH GUSTS, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH IN MANY
AREAS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS. POST- FRONTAL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS.
A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
NE MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS AT 2 AM
WITH ONLY THE WOLF POINT AND PLENTYWOOD AREA REPORTING BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, ROAD TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS OF
NE MONTANA ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING BASED ON REPORTS FROM MDT
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE SENSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO TURN
INTO ICE ON THE GROUND. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ONCE THE SUNRISES, WE WILL ASSESS WHAT AREAS HAVE WET
PAVEMENT VERSUS ICY PAVEMENT AND ADJUST THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE
ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND WILL RAPIDLY FALL THIS EVENING. WET ROADS WILL FREEZE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ICY SURFACES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NE TO THE 20S SW.
THE FRONT MOVES EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
OVERRUNNING BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH IN THE WEST FOR THE SNOW
TO CHANGE TO RAIN WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN. THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AMD THURSDAY WITH THE WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE POINTING TOWARDS SIGNIFICANT SNOW
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT IN SW MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE FOR THIS EVENT.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AT THIS POINT. NBM PROBABILITY OF 8+ INCHES OF SNOW
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 10 PERCENT IN THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE TO
40 TO 50 PERCENT AROUND ZORTMAN, WINNETT, AND JORDAN.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS TODAY WITH MIXING IN THE NBM 90 INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM AT THIS TIME.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN
PRECIPITATION TYPES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS NE MONTANA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY SNOW IN THE SW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE NE AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE BITTER COLD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0930Z
FLIGHT CAT: VFR MOST OF THE TIME WITH AREAS OF MVFR TODAY.
DISCUSSION: WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR ICING CONCERNS FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.
A MIX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BRING AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
WIND: STRONG WEST WINDS BEGIN BY 12Z. 20 TO 35 KTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS, WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 2000
FT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION UNTIL THE WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
MIXING TO THE SURFACE AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN
VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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