752
FXUS65 KGGW 031907
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
107 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 24.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
- ANOTHER SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SYNOPTIC UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
TONIGHT BRINGS PARTICULARLY WARM/DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
IT, WITH SOME PREFRONTAL WARMING BRINGING HIGHS AS WARM AS THE
LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTHERLY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS (MOSTLY VIRGA FOR SOME). AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD, THE PATTERN WILL
REBOUND TEMPERATURES TO SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS WITH A CONTINUATION
OF LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.
BY MIDWEEK PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MOSTLY FAVORING
SOUTHWEST ZONES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO HINT AT ANOTHER TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED DAY 1 - 2 WINDS AND GUSTS, LOWERED DAY 1 RH BACK FROM
BASE NBM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS TO REACH
80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RH NEARING 10 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE OR AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENT OF WARMING AND FURTHER
DRYING LATER THIS WEEK BASED ON ADVANCEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING TO
THE WEST. AFTER MIDWEEK THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT IN
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF TROUGHING AND CLOSED LOWS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: DRY WEATHER WITH FEW TO SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVC SKIES WILL DEVELOP BY 3Z WITH ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WIND: W AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS, VEERING NNW THROUGH
5Z. WIND SPEEDS LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING NW AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS AFTER
SUNRISE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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