592
FXUS65 KGGW 140654
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1254 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TODAY AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER. HREF MAX ENSEMBLE WIND GUST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER
OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR, LEADING TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH.
FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO INITIATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MOIST,
SO STEADY RAINFALL COULD RESULT FROM SOME OF THIS AND PERSIST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO LEND
SUPPORT TO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
ENSEMBLES POINT TO A WARM UP TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO COME ASHORE AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR CONSISTENCY AND COLLABORATION,
OTHERWISE NBM LANDED WELL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GET CAPTURED BY CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BECOMES MORE READILY AVAILABLE.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A COOL AND WET MIDWEEK, BUT WOULD
POINT OUT BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE ON GUSTY WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE ISOLATED OR LIMITED COVERAGE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
UPDATED: SUNDAY JUNE 14 AT 0630Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE
DAY, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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