875
FXUS65 KGGW 151019
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
319 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORCING SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO A HALF INCH FOR
NORTHERN PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MOST MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
MEASURABLE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING EACH OF THESE DAYS,
MOST HAVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH GIVEN LIMITED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FAVORS NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS COMMONLY IN THE 40S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
KEPT DEVIATIONS TO WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT
BY MAINTAINING A BLEND WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE FOR THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN. THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND TYPE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK.
-JEZ
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: IFR TO VFR (MOSTLY MVFR)
DISCUSSION: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THAT WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH 22Z. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR CEILINGS IMPACTING KGGW AND KOLF EARLY
THIS MORNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS BEING MOST COMMON DURING THE CYCLE,
PARTICULARLY FOR KGDV.
EQUIPMENT: KOLF'S ASOS TELECOM CIRCUIT IS DOWN AND CAN NOT BE
DIALED INTO. THEREFORE, AMD NOT SKED FOR THIS TAF UNTIL REPAIRS
CAN BE MADE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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