292
FXUS65 KGGW 310802
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
202 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NOW-EXITING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SE WILL BECOME A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
- EXPECT A HARD FREEZE MOST NIGHTS, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR 0
DEGREES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER ORGANIZED SNOW STORM IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WILL CLEAR ANY REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA,
BUT WILL STALL AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. OCCASIONAL TEMPORARY DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THIS STATIONARY FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO SNEAK UP AS FAR NORTH AS MT-HIGHWAY 200 FROM TIME
TO TIME. THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS NOW, THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. SOME WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD EASILY APPROACH ZERO DEGREES, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE A BIT THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT NOT BY MUCH,
AS OVERALL, NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
ANY AIR MASS MOVEMENTS.
EAST WINDS TONIGHT, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
AT TIMES THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
OUR ATTENTION IS TURNING MORE TOWARD A BETTER ORGANIZED STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS WEEK BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY. 500 MB MODEL DATA INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IDAHO, THEN WYOMING,
THEN TURNING NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. HISTORICALLY, THIS STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN KNOWN TO FAVOR NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, NEAR THE CHANGING OF THE SEASONS,
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THIS STORM IS STILL HIGH. A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE STORM TRACK AND/OR A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. ALL
SAID, THERE EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH
MANY EASTERN MONTANA LOCATIONS. DETAILS, OF COURSE, WILL BEGIN TO
IRON THEMSELVES OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AND THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC STORM
SYSTEM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MAIN DEVIATIONS ARE WINDS AND POPS. USED A MIX OF NBM, NBM 90, AND
OTHER HI-RES MODEL DATA BEST CONSENSUS. LEFT EVERYTHING AS NBM FOR
DAY 3 ONWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AND SNOW OCCURRING FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIPITATION BEING WIND
DRIVEN, WHICH HAS POTENTIAL TO REDUCE VISIBILITY IN THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0800Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: LINGERING MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 13Z. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY AT
KGDV AND KSDY.
WIND: NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 00Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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