547
FXUS65 KGGW 210153
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
753 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019
DISCUSSION
EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES. I BROUGHT LOWS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO, BASED ON INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD ALSO KEEP HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO TOMORROW IF THEY DO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
AVERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY'S FORECAST PACKAGE IS WELL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. ITEMS OF NOTE INCLUDE: OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING RAIN SHOWERS, HOT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM (POSSIBLY SEVERE)
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EASILY SHOWS THE SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE
ROTATING THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS DUE TO A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTANA
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL BRING
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA, AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THAT DISTURBANCE. THE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER PATTERN FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY NOT DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL NEED
TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON FORECAST HUMIDITIES TO SEE IF NBM SHOWS
ACCURATE VALUES WHEN COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE INTO A MUCH DRIER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE HAD OVER
THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT QUICKLY
PINWHEELS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
US MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH SUDDENLY CLOSES OFF INTO
A LOW CENTER, IT POPS BACK NORTHWARD FOR A BIT. WHEN THE ENTIRE
TROUGH FINALLY PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT, SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE, AND MAY BECOME SEVERE,
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
---BMICKELSON
AVIATION
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
WINDS: GENERALLY LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION: SOME SHOWERS MAY STRAY NEAR THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, SO ADDED VCSH TO EACH LOCATION. IF
SHOWERS GET CLOSER AND PRODUCE THUNDER, AN AMENDMENT OR TWO MAY BE
NEEDED. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVERY
GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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