188
FXUS65 KGGW 210211
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
711 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHEAST MT TONIGHT.
- AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NORTH OF HWY 2.
- FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THE CHANCE FOR
EXCEEDING 2" RANGES FROM 50-80% CHANCE NORTH OF HWY 2. FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD, THE CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 6" IS 20-40% FOR
NORTHERN PHILLIPS, NORTHERN VALLEY, DANIELS, AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
BESIDE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING FOG OCCURRING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN AREAS OF FRESH SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST MT TONIGHT, BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS THIS LOW INFLUENCES NORTHEAST MONTANA, SNOWFALL AND
A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN FRIDAY. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF EXCEEDING TWO INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HWY 2,
WITH LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HWY 2. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO WRAP UP ON SUNDAY, AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TAKE HOLD AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
THE HI- LINE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS AT THE CURRENT TIME.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS EXCEEDING 2" FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY
2 (50-80% CHANCE). FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD, THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 6" IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES (20-40% CHANCE).
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0200Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FREEZING FOG
DISCUSSION: CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, THERE
IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND 08-17Z
WHERE FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. KSDY
HAS THE HIGHEST POSSIBILITY OF SEEING FREEZING FOG AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY. BECOMING
E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM 09Z THROUGH THURSDAY. BACKING TO THE
NE THURSDAY EVENING.
BEYOND THE CYCLE: A STRONG WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW UP STARTING AROUND 15Z FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TURNING INTO SNOW. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE.
-STOINSKERS/GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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