579
FXUS65 KGGW 310907
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
307 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS
NE MONTANA.
2) MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS.
3) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION - THOUGH NO BIG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE NEXT UPPER LOW LOOKS TO PUSH ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW
TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NE MONTANA. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
ARE IMPORTANT NUANCES TO DISCUSS (SEE BELOW).
THROUGH FRIDAY, A A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. EVENTUALLY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A DRY SPELL FOR THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVIATIONS FOR NOW. IT
IS NOTEWORTHY HOWEVER THAT THERE'S CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
HREF SUITE MOST BULLISH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE LITTLE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN TIER ZONES - IN FACT, SUGGESTIVE OF
A LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS MOVING MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE GLASGOW CWA. THUS,
WHILE NBM CAPTURES A DECENT AVERAGE, THERE'S WIDE SPREAD IN THE
NUMBER OF POTENTIAL OF OUTCOMES HERE THAT WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY FOLLOWED. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE.
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON
A NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN AND FREQUENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
VFR CEILINGS AND SOME MVFR LEVELS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND LOW
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR 15 TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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