092
FXUS65 KGGW 041921
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
121 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- HARD FREEZE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
- INSTABILITY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ANONYMOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BE MORE LIKE JABBA THE HUTT THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES
LITTLE, KEEPING NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW. THE
CYCLONIC NATURE OF IT THROUGH TOMORROW MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND READINGS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MANY AREA, GIVING MOST A HARD FREEZE.
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST A BIT WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOME WARMER AIR
TO MOVE IN WITH A CONTINUATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK, PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MOSTLY FAVORING
ELEVATED AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. MORE PERSISTENT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MODELS
BEGINNING TO HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT THIS TIME SHOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATION:
LOWERED TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT, BLENDING WITH NBM25,
GIVEN THE AREA IS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OR AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENT OF WARMING AND
FURTHER DRYING LATER THIS WEEK BASED ON ADVANCEMENT OF UPPER
RIDGING TO THE WEST. AFTER MIDWEEK THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF TROUGHING AND CLOSED
LOWS. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY BUT AN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO CLOUD LEVEL.
WIND: NW DECREASING TO N AROUND 10 KTS BY 06Z. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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