307
FXUS65 KGGW 120657
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1257 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MAINLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AREA WIDE, AND
ANOTHER FIRE PRODUCT IS LIKELY NEEDED FOR THURSDAY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE AREA, MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH BEYOND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE. THE PEAK OF THIS RIDGE IS GOING TO OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF 2026 SO FAR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
INCREASED DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND KEEPS WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 EXPECTED, AND FEW ISOLATED GUSTS
HIGHER THAN THAT. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY, A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS THEREAFTER TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOME AND BRING SMALLER SYNOPTIC RIDGE/TROUGH
COUPLETS EMBEDDED IN IT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE WETTING RAINS OR EVEN A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
DEPENDING ON WHETHER IT MATCHES UP WITH PEAK HEATING. INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHAT DAY/TIME ANY GIVEN
RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET MOVES THROUGH THOUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS WERE MADE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AND A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEING NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS WELL AS FOR HIGH WINDS OCCURRING ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0700Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN.
WIND: NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 16 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY.
EQUIPMENT: NO OBS FROM KSDY. TAF WILL BE AMD NOT SKED UNTIL OBS
RETURN.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT
PECK RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES-
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page