758
FXUS65 KGGW 022019
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
119 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS
IN PLACE THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
- OTHERWISE, DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AGAIN
AID IN SCATTERED WINTRY MIX OCCURRING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. FOR MANY LOCATIONS THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOW
ACCUMULATIONS (UP TO 0.03 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING DENSE
FREEZING FOG BACK TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA FROM AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 AM TOMORROW, WITH VISIBILITY
AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE IN PLACES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WHERE THE FOG
CLEARS THE SOONEST, AND THEN MORE LIKELY TO REACH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IF THE FOG IS ABLE TO CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, AND THEN A DRY
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY THAT WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER. THERE WILL BE AN EYE OUT FOR SOME POTENTIAL HYDROLOGY
CONCERNS SINCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL MONTANA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MADE DEVIATIONS TO THE WINDS THROUGH DAY 2 WITH NBM 90 AND BASE
NBM. INCREASED POPS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MANUALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY TO THE 12Z HREF 50TH PERCENTILE VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH 10 AM
TOMORROW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH (50 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR DENSE
FREEZING FOG AFFECTING VALLEY, ROOSEVELT, DANIELS, AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON NBM TEMPERATURES FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
PART OF THE AREA FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HYDROLOGY CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2030Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR TO LIFR.
DISCUSSION: A STATIONARY FRONT SPREAD FROM WHITEWATER TO GLASGOW
TO GLENDIVE HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO SET UP IN THESE LOCATIONS
AND AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE. THIS BRINGS HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING FROM NOW THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OCCURRING
FOR KOLF AND KGGW FROM 03Z TO 17Z TUESDAY, WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF VISIBILITY REACHING LIFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (20 TO 40 PERCENT) OF A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING
AT ALL SITES, WHICH INCLUDES FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURRING
WITH THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND: FOR KGGW AND KGDV, NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 21 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z, INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TUESDAY. FOR KOLF AND KSDY, WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 16Z TUESDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
MCCONE-NORTHERN VALLEY-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-
WIBAUX.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
NORTHERN VALLEY-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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