501
FXUS65 KGGW 012033
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
133 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- A WARM FRONT MAY ALLOW A BRIEF CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.
- OTHERWISE, DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING ON TUESDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL AID IN
BRINGING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN,
AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. UP TO 0.04 HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING
RAIN AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT, THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX AGAIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY NIGHT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY THAT WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE WILL BE AN EYE OUT FOR
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS SINCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL MONTANA. ALSO, MULTIPLE WARM DAYS AND
DRYING IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS INTO THE PICTURE AS WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
RAISED POPS FOR TODAY, MONDAY, AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH GFS 1 HOUR,
NBM, AND MANUAL EDITS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS IN DAY 1 AND DAY 2 TO
A MIX OF NBM 90 AND THE NBM.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT, AND HIGH IN SNOW OCCURRING IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE BELOW 0.03 HUNDREDTHS.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2045Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR TO IFR.
DISCUSSION:
A STATIONARY FRONT SPREAD FROM WHITEWATER TO GLASGOW TO GLENDIVE
HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO SET UP IN THESE LOCATIONS AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE. THIS BRINGS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING FROM NOW THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.
FROM 08Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY, THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE (20 TO 40 PERCENT) OF A WINTRY MIX, WHICH INCLUDES
FREEZING RAIN, OCCURRING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
WIND: FOR KGGW, SOUTHEAST AT 9 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 18 KNOTS AFTER 14Z MONDAY. FOR ALL OTHER SITES, EAST AT 6 TO
11 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN
ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-NORTHERN VALLEY-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN
ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page