799
FXUS65 KGGW 242132
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
232 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
- DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF US-2
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 30
BELOW ZERO.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
ROTATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING
INTO MONTANA WITH THE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUSHING OVER
CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE WEAK WINTER THERMAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY. THERMAL PROFILES WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND A COLDER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA FROM ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS, INTERMITTENTLY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE WAS SOME DECREASE IN ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS MODERATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE
SPECIFICS WITH RESPECT TO DEEP COLD IS YET TO BE FLESHED OUT,
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS CAN
BE FELT ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
CLIFF
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2130Z
EXPECTED FLIGHT CATEGORY: AS LOW AS LIFR
SYNOPSIS: SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT,
A COMBINATION OF VERY LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG, ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING FRONT THAT LIKELY WILL PRODUCE SOME FREEZING RAIN IN
PARTS OF PHILLIPS, VALLEY AND DANIELS COUNTIES, WILL WORK TO
REDUCE THE EXPECTED FLIGHT CATEGORY TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS: EAST WINDS OF 15-30 KTS ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
THE PRECIPITATION SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
CLIFF
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DANIELS-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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