393
FXUS65 KGGW 112129
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
329 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTION IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE HI-LINE FROM LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PETROLEUM, GARFIELD AND
SOUTHWEST PHILIPS COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO NEWBORN
LIVESTOCK.
- WIND CHILLS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SYNOPTIC SETUP: THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL FLOW FROM A STRONG WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL JET. A DEEP TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CA PUTS MONTANA IN A
GOOD POSITION TO RECEIVE AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT: AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF HWY 2. LESS THAN 1" IS EXPECTED IN THE
FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
TOMORROW MORNING: A WARM FRONT/CHINOOK WILL MOVE INTO NE MONTANA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
TRANSITION SNOW TO RAIN THROUGH MID-DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRANSITION IN LOW TO MODERATE AS TEMPERATURES WHILE SNOWING MAY
NOT WARM ENOUGH TO PASS THE FREEZING LINE AND RUN BACK INTO RAIN.
WHILE RAIN IS MOST LIKELY, SNOW ALONG WITH IT COULD ALSO LEAD TO
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS POPPING UP UNEXPECTEDLY (5-10% CHANCE).
SHORTLY AFTER THE WARM FRONT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE STATE INCREASING WINDS VERY QUICKLY. STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AND ARE LOOKING TO SURPASS 70 MPH.
THIS EVENT RILL RIVAL THE DECEMBER 17TH 2025 WINDSTORM, BUT SO
FAR, THE TIMING OF SNOW DOES NOT LINE UP WITH THE WIND. THE HIGH
WIND WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY: AS THE CHINOOK SHUTS OFF A COLD
FRONT WILL DRAG MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. OVERRUNNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING IN SNOW. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FORECAST AREA THAT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS,
PETROLEUM, AND GARFIELD COUNTIES. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LONG DURATION SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND MAY CAUSE STRESS ON NEWBORN LIVESTOCK.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS OR INTERESTS IN THE AREA WILL WANT TO
MONITOR FOR FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THIS LATE
WINTER SEASON STORM TAKES SHAPE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
BLENDED 33% NBM90 FOR THURSDAY WINDS AND 50% NBM90 FOR WIND GUSTS.
MANUALLY INCREASED WINDS FOR HISTORICALLY WINDY SPOTS. LOWERED RH
THURSDAY USING HIRES GUIDANCE.
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS MODERATE AT BEST. TOTALS CONTINUE TO
RAISE AND TRACK SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WILL RECEIVE LESS SNOW THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED, AND
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF 12 INCHES IN A HIGH END
SCENARIO. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT COUPLED WITH A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE LOCAL SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2015Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: LATE NIGHT RAIN SNOW SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING TAF SITES AFTER 4Z. THE FIRST PUSH OF PRECIP IS
LEANING TOWARDS WINTRY MIX, WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING A POSSIBILITY.
ICING MAY BE A FACTOR IF THAT MATERIALIZES. AFTER 12Z THERE WILL
BE A SWITCH TO PREDOMINANTLY RAIN. I OPTED TO LEAVE LIGHT RAIN
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE CYCLE AS IT MAY OSCILLATE
BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW, OR RETURN TO A WINTRY MIX. LOWER CEILINGS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR LOW STRATUS.
WIND: WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. A QUICK AND
WIDESPREAD PUSH OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN AFTER
12Z TONIGHT, PEAKING IN THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. GUSTS
GREATER THAN 50 KTS ARE LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.
LLWS: PERIODS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DANIELS-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-SHERIDAN-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN
VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GARFIELD-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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