182
FXUS65 KGGW 080847
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
247 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ABOVE 90 POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
REX BLOCK PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF DISJOINTED
FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE CANADIAN RIDGE TODAY DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS MONTANA.
THIS FLOW PATTERN AND AIR MASS INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET
OFF SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE VERY WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN, ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SET UP WILL EASILY RESULT IN
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REACHING ABOVE 90 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
INCREASE IF FORECAST WINDS BECOME STRONGER AND/OR FORECAST
HUMIDITY DROPS MORE.
BEGINNING LATER ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO
AN ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERALL AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BECOME GREATER
WITH TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, USED A BEST CONSENSUS BLEND TO HIGHLIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR POSSIBLE DOWNDRAFT WINDS.
OTHERWISE, USED THE GIVEN NBM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR KGDV
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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