197
FXUS65 KGGW 240339
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
939 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHEN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING MOVING
IN FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE.
STORM CHANCE WILL THEN RAMP UP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST OVER
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. LOOK FOR PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND EVEN
HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH VERY DRY AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE WELL
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST OF NE MONTANA WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES AS LOW AS 12 TO 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL PROBABLY
PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OVER TO THE EAST, LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO MUCH STRONGER CONDITIONS, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HUMIDITY READINGS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS MAY LEAD
TO FIRE CONCERNS. EVEN WHERE GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY, CURING MAY
TAKE PLACE FROM CONSECUTIVE HOT AND DRY WEATHER DAYS. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO PRESENT BOATING HAZARDS FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
ON TUESDAY EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. THESE STORMS
WILL MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO NE MONTANA. AN ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE THROUGH OPHEIM TO GLASGOW
TO JORDAN.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERN
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST. WHILE TEMPS WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE
EACH DAY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM 0.50" TO 1.00" RAPIDLY
AND THEN SLOWLY TO 1.10" BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL THEN
MOVE OFF OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS TO NBM WERE OBSERVED.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THE CULMINATION OF HOT, DRY,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRYING FUELS MAY PRESENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0330Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS ON
SUNDAY.
EQUIPMENT: KSDY OBS ARE UNAVAILABLE AND WILL BE AMD NOT SKED.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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