183
FXUS65 KGGW 171620
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1020 AM MDT TUE SEP 17 2019
DISCUSSION
MORNING UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PETROLEUM AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LOOK FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A COUPLE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, PRIMARILY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA.
-MOTTICE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING AND WILL
DRIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. GUSTY NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THE FRONT BEING LATER IN THE DAY IN THE EAST, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 80S THERE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHILE THE WEST WILL ONLY
REACH THE 70S.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO THIS
MORNING AND EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNSTABLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THE EAST WITH THE
MARGINAL RISK IN THE SPC OUTLOOK.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY WHILE
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE WEST. THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON SW FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL
MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND THAT. FORRESTER
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT: VFR TODAY AND MOST OF THE TIME TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AROUND NOON AT
KGGW AND THIS AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH WEST TO NW
WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOST OF
THE TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 15 TO 30
KNOTS THAT WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.
GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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