596
FXUS65 KGGW 050959
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
359 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS AN INCREASING
CONCERN.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDWEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WELL INTO THE 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING. HREF
ENSEMBLE MAX WIND GUST AND UPDRAFT HELICITY SHOWS SUPPORT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM, ESPECIALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TRACKING IN FROM CENTRAL MT.
A VERY AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN A VERY MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNFOLD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THE FLASH FLOODING THAT OCCURRED FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
GLASGOW AREA, THE GROUND IS ALREADY LIKELY NEARLY SATURATED. THUS,
THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR NOT ONLY AN ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK, BUT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS COMPOUNDING FROM ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A CONTINUING PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL TOLD,
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
POPS WERE ADJUSTED IN THE SHORT TERM FOR CONSISTENCY AND
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING ON THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT OCCURRING ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY DESPITE
A FEW HIGH TO MID CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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