285
FXUS65 KGGW 080938
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
238 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND AND SNOW RAIN MIX WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT ONWARD.
- COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONG
BRIEF WARM UP ON MONDAY. AFTERWARDS TEMPS MODERATE OUT FOR THE
WORKWEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOW AND BRIEF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW
WHICH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OUT THROUGH MID-DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY WARM
MONDAY AS A RIDGE PASSES OVER FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ONCE THE
RIDGE EXITS TEMPERATURES MODERATE OUT INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS FROM NBM INCLUDED STRETCHING HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM 80/90% TO NEAR 100% TO MAKE BKN SKIES OVC FOR
TAFS USING THE NBM90.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SECOND RIDGE ARRIVES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ENSEMBLES
DO NOT YET KNOW HOW TO RESOLVE THE EXIT OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE EXIT OF THE RIDGE COULD
BRING LIGHT PRECIP, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW (5-15%).
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: IFR - VFR
DISCUSSION: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW, IT IS DRAGGING EXTREMELY GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT AROUND 12-13Z
ALLOWING CEILINGS TO RISE TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS.
ISOLATED RAIN, SNOW, OR MIST MAY LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FULL DRYING OUT EXPECTED BY THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE FUEL LOADING IN THE MID-
AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABLY NOT CLEAR MVFR ENTIRELY AT ALL SITES UNTIL
ROUGHLY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND: TURNING NW AT 10 TO 20 KTS GUSTING 30 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN CALMING TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING.
VEERING NW TO N AND CALMING FURTHER TO 10 KTS OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SE AND BECOMING LIGHT THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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