347
FXUS65 KGGW 090852
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
252 AM MDT THU MAY 9 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TAPER OFF TODAY, THEN PERIODIC AND
LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN STARTING ON SUNDAY.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE REMAINING PERIPHERY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING, ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY,
FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION WILL RESULT. A WARM UP
WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH (70 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF DRY
WEATHER OCCURRING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING
AT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE PATTERN PRESENTING NO HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND, AS
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE ENSEMBLE RANGES. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WITH ANY
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
-ZANKER/STOINSKERS
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0830Z
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR/MVFR
DISCUSSION: CEILINGS HAVE RISEN INTO VFR TERRITORY. SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING, SO THERE IS MODERATE (40 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS: NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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