828
FXUS65 KGGW 020650
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1250 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING DUE TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING TODAY.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY DUE TO DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
- INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE IMPACTS TO
RECREATION ON FORT PECK LAKE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND A COOLING AIRMASS. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING VERY WARM OVERNIGHT, WILL CONTINUE THE EXTREME HEAT
HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE DRY AIRMASS AND INCREASING
WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT CRITICAL LEVELS, SO RED
FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. THE CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS, AT
ALL LEVELS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SMOKE INTO THE REGION FROM
WASHINGTON AND OREGON, FOR REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY AND AIR
QUALITY.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TRAILING
LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK OFFERING A
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS, BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LONGER TERM, ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING DOWNSTREAM
AS A NEW RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL EXTEND HEIGHT RISES OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATING TEMPERATURE TOWARD SEASONABLE AVERAGES
LATE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
WHILE NBM HANDLED THE BIG PICTURE WELL ACROSS THE FORECAST, A
BLEND WITH NBM90 WAS USED FOR NEAR TERM WINDS THIS WEEKEND IN LINE
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDY CONDITIONS SUPPORTING THE RED FLAG AND
LAKE WIND HEADLINES IN EFFECT.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. OVERALL EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAZE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRE SMOKE.
THIS SMOKE MAY CONCENTRATE ENOUGH TO BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
AREA STARTING AROUND 15Z AS CURRENT HRRR SMOKE PLUMES REACH THE
TERMINALS AROUND THIS TIME.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES-NORTHERN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND
SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR DANIELS-
DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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