797
FXUS65 KGGW 162101
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEK, AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS
CLOUDS STREAM FROM NE TO SW NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF FORT PECK LAKE,
AND OTHER CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM SE MONTANA. THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
PINWHEEL EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWS ANY RESULTING
PRECIPITATION TO BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO AREAS EITHER NEAR OR
AWAY FROM OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY CWA ZONES. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE, REDUCING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT, THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING IN DRIER AND CALMER
CONDITIONS WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY NORMAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IF NOT LONGER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
POPS AND WINDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH HI-RES MODELS FOR DAY 1
AND 2 DUE TO THE LACK OF NEEDED DETAIL FROM THE NBM.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION
UPDATE: 2059Z, 9/16
PATTERN: MIGRATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WYOMING WILL SWEEP UP
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR KGDV AND KSDY.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR, THEN AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR IF A SHOWER
HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER KSDY OR KGDV TONIGHT.
WINDS: GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT ERRATIC AND GUSTY NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
EQUIPMENT: NOTAM COMMS ISSUES WITH THE KSDY OBSERVATION REMAIN.
AMD NOT SKED WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL METARS ARE AVAILABLE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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