004
FXUS65 KMSO 202115
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
215 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
INTRUSION INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHED INTO THE REGION AS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART. SOME LOCATIONS THAT KEPT A BREEZE GOING OVERNIGHT WEREN'T
ABLE TO GET THAT COLD (I.E. LEADORE IDAHO SAW A 9 BELOW
TEMPERATURE, BUT COULD HAVE BEEN COLDER). LOWS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
BELOW ZERO WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOMEONE THAT LIVES BETWEEN FEELY AND DIVIDE
NEAR I-15, SOUTH OF BUTTE REPORTED TO US ON FACEBOOK A LOW OF 33
BELOW! A PRIVATE STATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF GEORGETOWN LAKE
REPORTED A LOW OF 29 BELOW ZERO.
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHWARDS FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS FURTHER UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PLAY INTO WHAT KIND OF
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WE'LL SEE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURE DROPS, AND SOME OF
THE HIGHER VALLEYS MAY BE ABLE TO GET DOWN BELOW 10 BELOW OR
COLDER. THOUGH WE DON'T HAVE ANY COLD ADVISORIES ISSUED, KEEP IN
MIND THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE DIVIDE TO BRING WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO 20 BELOW IN PLACES THIS EVENING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTH OVER THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE
VALLEYS MAY GET A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW, THE
MOUNTAINS FROM IDAHO COUNTY, TO THE MISSIONS AND BOB MARSHALL,
HAVE A 50 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GETTING 2 INCHES OR
GREATER. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE LOWER
PERCENTILES (LOWEST OUTLIERS) DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR GOING
BELOW ZERO, BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO, ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE BETWEEN SATURDAY(JAN. 25) AND MONDAY(JAN. 27).
AVIATION
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND MAY PERIODICALLY
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW FLURRIES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO STREAM OVER IT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY WILL
ENHANCE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ON THE
TERRAIN AND ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF I-90. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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