470
FXUS65 KMSO 140929
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
329 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 2021
DISCUSSION
FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BUT WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON
RAIN SHOWERS. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE OVER THE TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. VERY LITTLE RAIN
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY,
AND BEGINS A STRETCH OF A FEW DAYS OF STEADILY WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS, BUT NOT WITHOUT THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL AFFECT US HERE IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ONE SOLUTION BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
AND KEEPS GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE OTHER SOLUTION SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET, VERY MOIST SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (SHOULD THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY PAN OUT).
RIGHT NOW, IT IS TOO EARLY TO HANG OUR HATS ON ANY ONE SOLUTION
JUST YET. WITH RIVERS ON THE RISE FROM SNOW MELT, ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT COUPLED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF COULD
RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DRAMATIC RIVER AND STREAM RISES. WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, WE WILL BE KEEPING A SHREWD
EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND ALL THE DETAILS PERTAINING TO IT IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
MOSTLY CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH
ROUGHLY 14/2200Z BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CLOUDS
FORMING OFF THE TERRAIN AROUND THE REGION SET OFF THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 15/0200Z. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, THE CONDITIONS ARE THERE
THAT SOME CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COULD GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DRY OUT AND CLEAR OUT SATURDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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