960
FXUS65 KMSO 220828
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
228 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS WET WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3,500 FT, SOUTH OF I-90.
- 85% OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUPPORT A BREEZY COLD FRONT BY EARLY
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TODAY WILL BE A PLEASANT FALL DAY BETWEEN COLD FRONTS. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND SHOULD HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY WITH MANY
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAKING IT INTO THE 40S. SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING COULD BRING 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO
THE BACK COUNTRY AND SOME EXTREMELY REMOTE LOCATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SET OF PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAYS BETWEEN COLD FRONTS.
RECENT ACTIVITY OF THE MJO HAS BEEN WORKING IT'S WAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC OCEAN AND REACHES OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY. ABOUT THIS TIME
A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STARTS OFF A VERY ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL TROUGHS AND RIDGES EACH ABOUT A DAY APART.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF EACH OF THE
WAVES STILL, SO ENSEMBLE AVERAGES TEND TO WASH OUT A LOT OF THE
DETAILS, BUT OVERALL, THE START TO NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY ACTIVE
WITH VALLEY RAIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. OVERALL, THE TROPICAL
ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS UP AROUND 5,000
FT OR HIGHER, SO NO MAJOR WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
ZONAL FLOW IS SETTING UP BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD
FRONT TO PASS OVER THE REGION. RAIN AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH IN
NORTHWEST MONTANA MEAN THAT AS THE VALLEYS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING,
FOG AND STRATUS ARE CONCERNS. THIS WILL MAINLY EFFECT KGPI. FOR
THIS MORNING, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED UP
ENOUGH THAT MID-LEVEL STRATUS IS THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT, BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MIST OR FOG AT KGPI CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page