620
FXUS65 KMSO 040849
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
249 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMOKE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION, THOUGH THE AREAS MOST
IMPACTED SHIFT SOUTH.
- WARMING, DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE WEEK POSE A FIRE WEATHER
RISK STARTING FRIDAY.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMOKE IMPACTS FOR THE
REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. WILDLAND FIRES
UPSTREAM IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON HAVE BEEN LESS ACTIVE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND AS A RESULT THERE IS LESS SMOKE BEING
PRODUCED. ALSO, A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND MEANS THAT THE
MORE CONCENTRATED SMOKE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE SOUTH, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90. THAT BEING SAID, LOCAL FIRES ARE STILL PRODUCING
SMOKE, SO NO AREA IS REALLY IN THE CLEAR.
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
AGREEING ON A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVED SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASED BREEZES WILL HELP VENTILATE SOME SMOKE
OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO A
CONCERN FOR WILDLAND FIRES, ESPECIALLY AFTER A LONG, HOT, DRY
WEEK.
AVIATION
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA IS CAUSING HOT, DRY,
AND STABLE CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS IS EXASPERATING THE SMOKE
PROBLEMS, UPSTREAM FIRES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LESS SMOKE RECENTLY,
SO THAT HELPS A LITTLE. EVEN WITH THE SMOKE IN THE AREA, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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