294
FXUS65 KMSO 102013
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
113 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEEKEND STAGNATION: HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED TO TRAP COLD
AIR IN THE VALLEYS, LEADING TO STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS, AREAS
OF VALLEY FOG, AND STAGNANT CONDITIONS.
- COMPLEX SYSTEM MONDAY-TUESDAY: MOISTURE MOVING INTO STABLE
AIR/VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BRING RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN.
A FEW THINGS ARE EVIDENT IN WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AROUND OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE WARMED 4 TO 8 DEGREES
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, WHILE VALLEYS IN SOME CASES COOLED A FEW
DEGREES STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE AIR MASS DRIED SOME,
LIKELY DUE TO FROST OVERNIGHT DECREASING FOG OR STRATUS POTENTIAL.
FINALLY, THERE IS A WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WARMING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF VALLEYS, ERODING VALLEY INVERSIONS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, WHEN
REMNANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY RISE, COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, MOST CONCERNINGLY FREEZING RAIN.
OUR CURRENT AREA OF FOCUS IS FAR NORTHWEST MT, ALONG AND NORTH OF US-2
AND WEST OF US-93. THESE AREAS DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
MAY EXPERIENCE ICY CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS, ADD TIME TO OR DELAY
YOUR COMMUTE IF POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE A BRIEF SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON AERIAL EXTENT
AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ANY SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER IN VALLEYS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF BUT SLICK CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS ON TUESDAY AND IN VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS
HAVE ERODED COULD SEE TEMPERATURES MID 40S TO 50S. THE DURATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AIR STAGNATION.
AVIATION
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY
ALLEVIATE FOG OR STRATUS CONCERNS, BUT FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KGPI
AND KMSO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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