899
FXUS65 KMSO 202033
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
233 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019
DISCUSSION
OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, THE REST OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY, COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WE'VE BEEN WATCHING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS, WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY,
THEN RISING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND
USHER IN MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO,
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAJOR CONCERNS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MONTANA.
LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. WE ALSO EXPECT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS, AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY.
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY FOR NW MONTANA,
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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