150
FXUS65 KMSO 252304
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
504 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
UPDATE
WE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF RAVALLI COUNTY AND ALSO
UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT MAY NOT GET MUCH BELOW FREEZING IN THE BITTERROOT AND
MISSOULA VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ONLY COOL TO THE UPPER 30S.
THIS WILL CAUSE FURTHER SNOWMELT AND KEEP THE THREAT OF OVERLAND
FLOODING GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 246 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019/
DISCUSSION...
DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONSIDERING THAT MANY VALLEYS ACROSS THE REGION DID NOT COOL TO
BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING, THE WARMTH AND WIND ARE FURTHER
ACCELERATING MELTING SNOW AND RUNOFF AT LOW ELEVATIONS. FIELD
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COMMON SIGHT AROUND THE AREA, WITH
WATER RUNNING OVER SOME SECONDARY AND COUNTRY ROADWAYS. BEWARE OF
DRIVING THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH AND REMEMBER: TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN.
A FAST-MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR MINIMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
PERHAPS A QUICK 1-2 INCHES SNOWFALL OVER HIGH TERRAIN. SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA MAY ONCE AGAIN NOT COOL TO
BELOW FREEZING, ALLOWING SNOW MELT TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. KEEP AN
EYE ON LOCAL SEASONAL STREAMS AND CREEKS. FIELD FLOODING IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE BEING AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO TODAY.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH OUR CHANGE TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY,
AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND 4500 FEET AND ABOVE FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER, EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO AROUND 3000 FEET GIVING THE MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS, AND
UPPER BLACKFOOT REGIONS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
HIGHER COMMUNITIES OF SW MONTANA SUCH AS (PHILIPSBURG, BUTTE,
ANACONDA, GEORGETOWN LAKE) COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OF
AROUND 6 INCHES OR MORE. NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO COMMUNITIES AROUND
DIXIE, ELK CITY, AND LEADORE OF LEMHI COUNTY, WONT MISS OUT
EITHER, WHERE A FEW INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH MOST
VALLEYS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL PRIMARILY SEE RAIN,
THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COLD TO END THE WEEK. THE RAIN
AND SNOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. MORE SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
IS ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO SOLID OVERCAST AFTER
26/0600Z, AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. KGPI
AND KMSO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF LOWERED CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION DURING THE 26/1200Z - 26/1800Z PERIOD. LOWERED
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TOWARD KSMN AND KBTM DURING
26/1800Z - 27/0000Z. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL FOLLOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION FEATURES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT (FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST). TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL LESSEN AFTER 27/0600Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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