812
FXUS65 KMSO 300728
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
128 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH RECORD HEAT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY SATURDAY.
- COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY SATURDAY. THIS IS
ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS
RELATIVELY ABNORMAL FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED THIS
EARLY IN THE YEAR. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. THOSE
RECREATING OUTSIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS,
AND KEEP IN MIND THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN FAST AND
COLD.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND BREEZY WINDS.
REGARDING THE WEATHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEK, RECENT FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM A CLOSED LOW SCENARIO AND MORE
TOWARDS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IF THE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO PLAYS OUT (AROUND 20 PERCENT CHANCE) A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH THE OPEN TROUGH SOLUTION (80
PERCENT CHANCE) MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
OVERALL LESS CHANCES OF A SOAKING RAIN EVENT.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THAT WILL PROMOTE DAILY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND FOR
SATURDAY, WITH SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH VALLEYS IN WESTERN
MONTANA REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MID 90S TO LOW 100S
IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SATURDAY, THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL MAJOR TERMINALS, EXCEPT
FOR KBTM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...LOWER
CLARK FORK REGION...MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS.
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN LEMHI
COUNTY.
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