245
FXUS65 KMSO 062033
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
233 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE KMSX RADAR (MISSOULA, MT LOCAL WEATHER RADAR) WILL REMAIN
OFFLINE DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE THROUGH AUGUST 9TH
- COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND LINGERS INTO
FRIDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER LEMHI COUNTY
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WOULD PUT RELATIVELY STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WHILE NORTHWEST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY
WHICH WILL CAUSE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA ESPECIALLY NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH MANY HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 30S WITH DIXIE IDAHO POTENTIALLY EVEN
GETTING INTO THE 20S.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SLOWING
TRANSITIONING TO WEAK RIDGING BY NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN THE
FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING INTO WAY INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF KGPI BY 07/02Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. KMSO
AND KHRF COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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