596
FXUS65 KMSO 051830
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1230 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- PEAK WARMTH ON MONDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.
- STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- SHOWERY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL REACH 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN. SO EVEN
WHEN THE WEATHER IS ACTIVE, THE REGION ISN'T SEEING ANY AIR MASS
COOL ENOUGH TO BRING IT DOWN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY. WIND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TOMORROW IF MODELS HOLD THEIR
COURSE. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS, AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS VARY BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM YOU
LOOK AT. ACCORDING TO THE NBM, THE CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH ARE 80-100 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RANGE FROM 20 TO 50
PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS, DEPENDING ON THE VALLEY. IN THE MOUNTAINS
CHANCES FOR 50 MPH GUSTS RANGE FROM 40-75 PERCENT DEPENDING ON THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE. IN THE VALLEYS IT'S GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS OF THE BITTERROOT VALLEY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 93 AND THE SOUTHWEST MISSION VALLEY NEAR HOT SPRINGS
WHERE IT'S 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR A GUST OVER 50 MPH. HIGH
RESOLUTION, SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES LIKE THE REFS SHOW LOWER CHANCES
THAN THE NBM. IN ANY CASE, BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY, BUT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THIS WEEKEND, SHOWERS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
A RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW CAUSING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOME MORNING FOG ALONG THE
RIVERS NEAR TERMINALS KMSO AND KGPI IS LIKELY, BUT THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE TERMINAL AREA. LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AROUND 07/06Z WINDS START INCREASING FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...ID...NONE.
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