080
FXUS65 KMSO 241852
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1252 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY, BRINGING STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER, PEAKING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AIR QUALITY MAY DEGRADE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT FLOW TRANSPORTS SMOKE FROM THE CAMP CREEK FIRE INTO THE
REGION.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TUESDAY, INTRODUCING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY, EXPANDING
STORM COVERAGE. A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEIGHTEN
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING-INITIATED FIRE STARTS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ANY ACTIVITY, WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING NEAR-SEVERE GUSTS (50-60 MPH), PRIMARILY IN
SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH WEEKEND: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE (>90%) IN A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RETURNING LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE EXACT TIMING AND SPECIFIC
IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
UPTICK IN WINDS OVER SEVERAL DAYS, LIKELY OPENING ANOTHER WINDOW
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A MINORITY BUT GROWING NUMBER OF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTS A CLOSED-LOW TRACK, WHICH WOULD YIELD
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, A TREND TO MONITOR.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK WILL NOTICEABLY ELEVATE DENSITY ALTITUDES ACROSS REGIONAL
AIRFIELD ELEVATIONS, IMPACTING AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE. WILDFIRE
SMOKE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LOCALIZED SLANT-RANGE
VISIBILITY DEGRADATION. IN PARTICULAR, A LIGHT EASTERLY GRADIENT
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM THE CAMP CREEK FIRE
INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA, WHILE OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW FROM THE
NATURE GROVE FIRE MAY DEGRADE SLANT-RANGE VISIBILITY NEAR HAMILTON
(KHRF).
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INITIAL
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED,
ERRATIC CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY, EXPANDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
INCREASING STORM INTENSITY. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TREND HIGHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS EXCEEDING 40-50 KT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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