546
FXUS65 KMSO 212000
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
200 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS MOVE OUT TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS SHORT-LIVED, THOUGH,
AS ANOTHER FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE EXITING OF THE TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND A STRONG JET STREAK ALOFT NOSES ITS WAY
INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. MEANWHILE, PACIFIC MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED
OVER A LARGE, PERSISTENT CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY. MORE NOTABLY, HOWEVER, WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPWARDS OF 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BOATERS
ON FLATHEAD LAKE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINDY, CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
IN THE LONGER TERM, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DESCENDS DOWN THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA ON THURSDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DROP AND PRECIPITATION RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE AGREEING PRETTY WELL ON THIS
FRONT. THE QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL WE SEE? SNOW LEVELS OF 5000 TO 6000 FT ON FRIDAY DROP TO 3000
TO 4000 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY
HIT FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. EXPECT A COLD, WET START TO OCTOBER.
AVIATION
SKIES CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A NICE, CLEAR DAY SHAPES
UP FOR SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION IMPACTS IN NEXT 24 HOURS
SAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KBTM AFTER 22/00Z. PRECIPITATION RESUMES
ON MONDAY, AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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