470  
FXUS65 KMSO 140929  
AFDMSO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT  
329 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY  
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BUT WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON  
RAIN SHOWERS. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE OVER THE TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL  
DIVIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. VERY LITTLE RAIN  
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.  
 
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY,  
AND BEGINS A STRETCH OF A FEW DAYS OF STEADILY WARMING  
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, A  
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER  
CONDITIONS, BUT NOT WITHOUT THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS ON THE  
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW PRESSURE  
TROUGH ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL AFFECT US HERE IN  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ONE SOLUTION BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH  
AND KEEPS GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION  
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE OTHER SOLUTION SHOWS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET, VERY MOIST SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (SHOULD THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY PAN OUT).  
RIGHT NOW, IT IS TOO EARLY TO HANG OUR HATS ON ANY ONE SOLUTION  
JUST YET. WITH RIVERS ON THE RISE FROM SNOW MELT, ANY KIND OF  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT COUPLED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF COULD  
RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DRAMATIC RIVER AND STREAM RISES. WHILE NO  
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, WE WILL BE KEEPING A SHREWD  
EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND ALL THE DETAILS PERTAINING TO IT IN THE  
COMING DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MOSTLY CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH  
ROUGHLY 14/2200Z BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CLOUDS  
FORMING OFF THE TERRAIN AROUND THE REGION SET OFF THE CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 15/0200Z. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN  
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, THE CONDITIONS ARE THERE  
THAT SOME CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COULD GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO  
PRODUCE LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.  
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DRY OUT AND CLEAR OUT SATURDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
ID...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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