768
FXUS65 KTFX 030436
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1036 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE 4TH OF JULY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
STAY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA FOR
THE 4TH OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND
GIVES NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES STATUS QUO. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO FORM. ON SATURDAY STRONG MID
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES.
ON MONDAY THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL BUILDS IN BRIEFLY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON FRIDAY THERE IS A 15 - 35% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH OF THE MONTANA HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR.
ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND
HAVRE AND ALONG SOUTH OF THE MONTANA HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR THERE IS A
20 - 40% FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY THERE IS A 25 - 50% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25
MPH OR GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. ON SATURDAY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THERE IS GREATER
THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER. ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 85 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THERE IS 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
85 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. -IG
AVIATION
03/06Z TAF PERIOD
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
PASSING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS; HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 03/18 AND 04/00Z,
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE KLWT AREA. - RCG
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR RECREATION AREAS UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE FOR THE MANY GLACIER AREA IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, AS
FLOOD WATERS SLOWLY RECEDE. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 52 80 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 49 75 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 52 79 52 84 / 0 10 0 0
BZN 48 78 49 84 / 10 0 10 0
WYS 38 74 40 79 / 10 0 10 0
DLN 46 77 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 51 82 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 48 76 49 84 / 10 30 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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