210
FXUS65 KTFX 192100
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW IS LIKELY WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS BELOW 6000FT MORE
LIKELY TO SEE RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AND BRIEFLY SETTLE NEXT TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS INFLUX OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH AND
BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AS LOW AS 5000FT INITIALLY, SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000FT, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE SNOW LEVELS WOULD OTHERWISE DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. THAT BEING SAID,
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW LOW SNOW LEVELS WILL GET
AND EVEN SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE
FORECAST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW POTENTIAL: THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND HOW QUICKLY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AND WHETHER THAT WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 4000FT ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH IS AFTER THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA. WHILE THERE
MIGHT BE SOME SNOWFLAKES POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, IT WOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP. SHOULD THE COLD
AIR ARRIVE EARLIER OR THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE LONGER DEPENDING
ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES, THESE SCENARIOS COULD IMPACT HOW
MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW THE
PROBABILITY OF LOCATIONS BELOW 4000FT SEEING AT LEAST AN INCH OF
SNOW IS ABOUT 10-20%. -THOR
AVIATION
19/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING
THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY MILD BUT, KEKS WILL HAVE
BREEZIER WINDS THROUGH 0600Z. -ESH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 40 56 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 36 55 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 36 61 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 35 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 26 59 28 61 / 0 10 0 10
DLN 35 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 34 60 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 41 57 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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