567
FXUS65 KTFX 300137
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
737 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- IT WILL BE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARM UP FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. WITH THE MAIN
THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS OVER, THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE CANCELLED.
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS LOOK RELATIVELY TAME WITH NO
MAJOR CONCERNS.
AS FOR SATURDAY, NBM PROBABILITIES ARE ABOVE 60% FOR THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT SEEING A GUST OVER 60 MPH AND A 30-50% CHANCE FOR
MAX WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE SETUP FOR SATURDAY IS SIMILAR TO
THE PAST COUPLE HIGH WIND EVENTS BUT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE FLOW IS SETUP OVER THE REGION THAT DO
GIVE SOME PAUSE AS TO HOW THIS EVENT WILL TURN OUT. THAT BEING
SAID, IN LIGHT OF HOW RECENT WIND EVENTS TRENDED, THERE IS GOOD
REASON TO BELIEVE SATURDAY MIGHT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. FOR NOW, NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED IN FAVOR
OF WAITING FOR THE 00Z MODELS TO ARRIVE WHICH SHOULD HELP GIVE A
CLEARER PICTURE AS TO HOW SATURDAY WILL PLAY OUT. BUT IN THE
MEANTIME, FOLKS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR A WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY. -THOR
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON A QUICK MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IT
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IT WILL BE COOLER
TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TO ABOUT SEASONAL AVERAGES.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ON SUNDAY THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FLAT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. ON SUNDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THERE WILL BE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 50 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. ON SATURDAY
THERE IS A 40 - 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER.
OVERALL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AGREE WELL ON
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IG
AVIATION
30/00Z TAF PERIOD
WINDS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE; HOWEVER, THE DECOUPLING SURFACE
WINDS WILL INITIATE AT LEAST SOME INSTANCES OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 30/09 AND 30/12, KHVR AND KLWT
WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS, BUT THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS IN THE KWYS AREA
BETWEEN 30/09 AND 30/16Z. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 50 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 27 48 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 27 50 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 21 48 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 11 43 14 46 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 20 48 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 28 51 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 27 47 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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