356
FXUS65 KTFX 240542
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1142 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ALONG THE HI-LINE AND IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
- TODAY THROUGH MONDAY IT WILL BE COLD WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE SNOW ALONG THE HI-LINE AND ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SNOW TO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING STRONG NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW ALONG THE HI-LINE AND TO THE BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS. THIS SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. TODAY IT WILL
REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES. TODAY DUE TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS IT WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE HI-LINE. ON
SATURDAY MORNING STRONG NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE HI-LINE AND THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE HI-LINE AND TO THE BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER-
LEVEL-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SATURDAY IT WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. IT BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY IT WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SLIGHTLY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM
UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TODAY THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. TODAY ALONG THE HI-LINE
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER
TODAY. TODAY IN THE SWEET GRASS HILLS THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50%
CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. TODAY THERE IS AROUND A 50%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ALONG WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE HI-LINE AND THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS. TODAY IN THE SWEET
GRASS HILLS AND BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR A
THREE HOUR WINDOW OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AND WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STRONG
WINDS AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS HAPPENING AT THE
SAME TIME FOR THREE HOURS A BLIZZARD WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN THE SWEET GRASS HILLS AND BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS TODAY.
TODAY THERE IS A 30 - 50% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
LITTLE BELTS AND MADISON AND GALLATIN MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND ALONG THE HI-LINE. A WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AS WELL DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WINDS. SEE THE TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SECTION FOR DETAILS. DUE TO LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 30 -
60% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA THERE IS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR
GREATER. -IG
AVIATION
24/06Z TAF PERIOD
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT RATHER STRONG SURFACE WINDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY EVENING, AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AND WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 43 25 38 24 / 70 40 70 30
CTB 43 22 35 19 / 30 30 60 20
HLN 41 23 40 21 / 90 70 50 20
BZN 43 21 40 16 / 90 70 60 10
WYS 41 17 36 11 / 90 70 70 10
DLN 46 22 40 18 / 80 70 50 10
HVR 48 24 36 21 / 10 30 70 40
LWT 40 21 34 18 / 50 10 60 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY
FOR EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN
TOOLE AND LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD AND
WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-LITTLE
BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI
HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR GALLATIN AND
MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS.
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