084
FXUS65 KTFX 172103
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, AND BACKCOUNTRY RECREATION ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PORTIONS OF THE HI-LINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RANGING
BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FLATTENED AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA SLIDES EAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. INCREASING CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN
THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. "COOLER" TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT,
WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DESPITE
PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO SUPPORT LIGHT SURFACES WINDS AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. - MOLDAN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK SPLIT FLOW WILL SET UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SETUP WILL PUT MONTANA
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MOISTURE BEING FUNNEL INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME HINTS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD MOVE SOUTH AND MERGE
WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT
EXACTLY THIS MEANS FOR OUR AREA. -THOR
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 85 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
WHILE FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 40S ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A GUST UP TO 50 MPH HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN GREAT FALLS,
THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS REACHING FULL
HIGH WIND CRITERIA. AS A RESULT, NO EXPANSION WAS MADE TO THE HIGH
WIND WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL START TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE BUT GENERALLY THE WORST OF THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DONE
BY 8 PM. -THOR
AVIATION
17/18Z TAF PERIOD
BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT AND KEKS, WITH THE HIGHEST WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. HIGHER END GUSTS
CAN REACH NEAR 50KTS AT TIMES AT KCTB. WINDS DECREASES IN THE
EVENING BETWEEN 18/03Z TO 18/06Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY PERSISTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 42 60 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 36 57 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 37 62 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 34 60 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 23 57 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 33 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 38 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 40 57 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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