226
FXUS65 KTFX 060747
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
147 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS GIVE PWATS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TAKES ITS TIME MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN ITS INITIAL STAGES OF BUILDING
IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE MOST FAVORABLE FORCING WILL
BRIEFLY LINGER THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE BEST
FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH IN CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US AND INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING
WARMER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THOUGH THE RIDGING WILL BE
IN PLACE, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES NON-ZERO INTO THE WEEKEND.
AREAS NEAR TERRAIN WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THIS TIMEFRAME. -AM
UNCERTAINTY:
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A LOW PROBABILITY BUT POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIO TODAY
INVOLVES MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ANY GIVEN
AREA. GIVEN PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF AN INCH, REPEATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ANY AREA COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. THIS THREAT LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING LINGERING ON THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY:
AS OF NOW THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH IN CANADA.
SHOULD THIS TREND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH IT WOULD RESULT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITHOUT THE STRONGER FORCING THE OVERALL THREAT FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED. -AM
AVIATION
06/06Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS WIND SHIFT INTO THE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP. AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY FIRST, WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 76 56 81 55 / 10 60 30 0
CTB 73 54 80 54 / 0 40 30 10
HLN 78 57 84 56 / 20 50 20 0
BZN 80 52 82 53 / 20 50 20 10
WYS 81 48 79 46 / 20 40 20 10
DLN 78 50 81 52 / 40 60 10 10
HVR 80 57 77 53 / 0 60 60 10
LWT 75 51 76 51 / 10 70 70 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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