493
FXUS65 KTFX 051104
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
504 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEK, WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY WINDS THIS WEEKEND, CREATING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1236 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THE GRADUAL
BUILDING OF THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE,
PEAKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS LOW AND FORCING
REMAINS WEAK, KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN, RESULTING IN INCREASED
WINDS ALOFT. DAYTIME MIXING WILL MIX THESE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
MIXING WILL ALSO LOWER HUMIDITIES, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
REACHING THE TEENS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH LOW END CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. -DZOMBA
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ONE THING THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE BREEZIER WINDS FRIDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE A BROADER 700MB JET
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME HAVE A MORE LOCALIZED JET, AND SOME PUSH
OFF THE BREEZIER WINDS TO SATURDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER RISK THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF DRY, HOT, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WHERE THE BETTER
WINDS SET UP WILL DETERMINE THE AREAS MORE AT RISK FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. -WILSON
AVIATION
05/12Z TAF PERIOD
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE REDUCING
SLANT-RANGE VISIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. A
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WILL FADE IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, YIELDING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS.
FOR KGTF: NW WIND SHIFT LOOKS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE IN THE 15Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME, THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS LOOKS TO BE 10 KTS OR
LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 85 52 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 82 51 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 87 52 92 55 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 86 50 91 52 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 80 39 86 42 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 84 49 90 52 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 86 53 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 80 50 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
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