639
FXUS65 KTFX 261906
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
106 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOLER SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING IN LATE SATURDAY, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
- GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE FIRST LARGER DISTURBANCE EJECTING FROM A BROAD SCALE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NW COAST MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY. AMPLE CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY IN WESTERN AREAS SO FAR, BUT LOOKS TO AT LEAST
BRIEFLY BREAK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL PROMOTE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE NEAR JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS
COUNTIES, WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY (CONDITIONAL ON CLOUD COVER
DIMINISHING FOR LONG ENOUGH), AND BETTER SHEAR WOULD OVERLAP.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THESE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS OF MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPS, ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT
LEAST BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES GIVEN PWAT IN PLACE. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS NEAR AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAIN, SUCH
AS URBAN AREAS OR AREAS ON/AROUND BURN SCARS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THIS INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING.
A FINAL CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR SOME GUSTY SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STRONGER GUSTS CONTINUE
TO LOOK ISOLATED SO NO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE BEING CONSIDERED AT
THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND CLOSED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
OF A WINDOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS. IN FACT,
FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOOKS TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO LOOK TO
BE IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF US-87 ON THE PLAINS, UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO WORK IN FROM EASTERN MT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW LEVELS TO FALL INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS LARGELY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 6,500-
7,500 FT RANGE UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, BUT WILL
BRIEFLY DROP LOWER THAN THIS IN HEAVIER SPURTS OF PRECIPITATION.
THE RISK FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS GRADUALLY EXPANDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MOUNTAIN SOUTH OF
I-90 LOOK TO SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW. REGARDLESS OF
SNOW AMOUNTS OR SNOW LEVELS, THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
STRETCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE STRETCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THIS PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVER
A LONGER STRETCH, AND FEATURE AT LEAST MODEST BREAKS IN MANY AREAS,
THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARDS IN MOST AREAS. -AM
AVIATION
26/18Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY OCCUR AT TIMES DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. -DZOMBA
CLIMATE
THE GREAT FALLS CWA HAS HAD 12 YEARS WITH A WINTER STATEMENT
ISSUED DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE SINCE 2008. THAT MEANS AROUND 60
PERCENT OF ALL JUNE'S SINCE 2008 A WINTER WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED. THUS IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR A WINTER STATEMENT TO BE
ISSUED IN THE GREAT FALLS CWA DURING JUNE. IT DOES NOT SNOW IN THE
SAME ZONES EVERY YEAR, BUT BECAUSE THE GREAT FALLS CWA IS QUITE
LARGE, IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR A WINTER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED IN
JUNE. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 70 48 58 / 90 50 80 80
CTB 48 69 48 60 / 50 30 70 80
HLN 51 66 46 56 / 80 90 90 90
BZN 48 64 42 57 / 60 90 90 70
WYS 40 55 32 50 / 40 90 80 70
DLN 46 60 38 54 / 60 90 90 60
HVR 52 75 50 65 / 80 30 80 90
LWT 48 66 44 59 / 90 90 70 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL
MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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