527  
FXUS65 KTFX 090003  
AFDTFX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT  
603 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2022  
   
..AVIATION SECTION UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HOT SURFACE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING  
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THURSDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS  
DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CONUS. WITH AN APPROACHING  
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA MONDAY EVENING  
INTO TUESDAY, GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 15 MPH TO 25 MPH CAN BE  
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT  
AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BECOME CALMER BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO STRONGER  
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. CLEAR SKIES  
AND HOT TEMPERATURES WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED  
OVER THE ID/WY BORDER LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 
MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST  
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING UPPER LEVEL WEAK DISTURBANCES  
ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE FROM ENSEMBLE MODELS, WE  
CAN EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST  
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST,  
WE EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO REMAIN STATIONARY JUST  
OFF THE COAST OF WA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY  
MOVING NORTHEAST INLAND OF CANADA. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
BRINGS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING  
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER 90S. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH  
ANY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. -WEBB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
603 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2022 (09/00Z TAF PERIOD)  
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL  
AIRFIELDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KWYS, WHERE FALLING TEMPERATURES  
AND INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF  
OVERNIGHT MIST CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS.  
KWYS MAY FALL INTO IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. TOMORROW'S  
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A FOCUS ON DENSITY  
ALTITUDE ISSUES.  
- FOGLEMAN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GTF 96 53 91 59 / 0 0 0 0  
CTB 91 52 86 57 / 0 0 0 0  
HLN 96 57 96 62 / 0 0 0 0  
BZN 94 51 95 56 / 0 0 0 0  
WYS 80 37 84 43 / 0 0 0 0  
DLN 89 49 91 53 / 0 0 0 0  
HVR 96 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0  
LWT 92 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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