970
FXUS65 KTFX 062338
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
538 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-15 THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY, WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY.
- AN ACTIVE, COOLER WEATHER PATTERN IS ON TAP TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 106 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTHEAST OF A ENNIS, TO
HELENA, TO GREAT FALLS, TO HAVRE LINE. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THIS TIMEFRAME COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA (JUDITH
BASIN, FERGUS, AND BLAINE COUNTIES). - MOLDAN
ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY TOWARDS CENTRAL MT. SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO 6,000 TO 7,000FT SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND DOWN TO 5,500FT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW TO DEVELOP.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WILL SLOW BRING ANOTHER BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT.
WITH THIS TROUGH EXITING THE REGION, MONDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY
OVERALL. THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND BREEZY WINDS.
THE MAIN CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY, AND SLOWLY MAKE
IT'S WAY EAST THROUGH EH WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ACTIVE,
COOLER PATTERN FOR THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT TROUGH, WHICH WILL BRING
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE
IN AGREEMENT FOR A WETTER COOLER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
FRIDAY. - WILSON
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS INITIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR, WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A DILLON, TO ENNIS, TO BIG SKY
THERE IS A 50% OR GREATER CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH EVEN A 30-70% CHANCE THAT GUSTS EXCEED 50 MPH. ISOLATED HIGHER
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TODAY BENEATH DECAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BY SUNDAY INCREASING CROSS BARRIER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVERHEAD WILL HELP TO
SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS, WITH A 40% OR
GREATER CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS ANY GIVEN AREA AND A
60-80% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 50 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
SOUTHEAST OF A MONIDA PASS TO BIG SKY LINE. - MOLDAN
THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR SUNDAY IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY REACHING FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTY BY 12PM,
WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT ROBUST SURFACE HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A
LITTLE SLOWER IN THE TIME OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR STRONGER STORMS. WITH PWATS DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH STORMS ARE LOW. - WILSON
AVIATION
07/00Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
07/06Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY AND IT'S ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH- CENTRAL MT BETWEEN 07/09 AND 07/19Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER KEKS AND KBZN WILL DECREASE BY 07/02Z. POST FRONTAL WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OVER 40
KTS AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WEST OF I15. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 44 57 39 70 / 70 70 40 0
CTB 40 56 37 66 / 20 40 20 0
HLN 44 58 37 70 / 50 80 10 0
BZN 43 60 32 70 / 40 60 30 0
WYS 40 58 27 64 / 30 30 0 0
DLN 42 59 33 68 / 40 40 20 0
HVR 44 60 40 72 / 70 60 30 0
LWT 42 56 35 70 / 70 80 30 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MADISON RIVER
VALLEY.
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