726
FXUS65 KTFX 022353
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- CREEKS AND STREAMS EMANATING FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR BANKFULL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY
- TEMPERATURES WARM ON SATURDAY BUT COOL A BIT FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1220 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SINCE THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH RAIN DECREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
AREAS THAT SEE CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GOING TO SLOWLY START TO
PULL AWAY, THUS SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING, WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
ON THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES. THIS TROF IS
NOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TO MAINLY JUST THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE
OVER THE CWA FOR FRI/SAT...RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR MOSTLY LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT. ON SUNDAY, A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
FOR MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER, WITH ONE
MODEL HAVING A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW, WHILE ANOTHER MODEL HAS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THUS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FOR THURSDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA A BIT EARLIER IN THE
DAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
03/00Z TAF PERIOD
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THEN, BUT GENERALLY THE PROBABILITY OF A TAF SITE GETTING A SHOWER
IS LOW AFTER THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MOST
OF THE HI-LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD SOUTH TO NORTH. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT DO GET
GOOD CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS. -WILSON
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GLACIER
COUNTY. GENERALLY IT IS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN IN THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS, WITH UP TO ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE BY LATER TODAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS BADGER CREEK AND TWO MEDICINE RIVER
SOUTH OF BROWNING. BOTH STREAMS ARE NEAR/AT BANKFUL AND WATER
COULD START GOING OVER ITS BANK AT ANY TIME.
FURTHER NORTH, THE ST MARY RIVER FROM BABB TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
CONTINUES TO RISE, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE,
THUS NO STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR THIS RIVER.
ELSEWHERE, CASCADE, TETON AND PONDERA COUNTIES REPORTED NO
FLOODING AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CREEKS ARE NEAR BANKFUL,
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED BANKFUL AT THIS TIME, THUS NO FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR THESE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 43 68 46 69 / 20 20 30 50
CTB 39 65 43 68 / 20 20 10 30
HLN 43 74 50 69 / 20 20 50 60
BZN 36 75 45 70 / 10 10 50 50
WYS 29 70 37 66 / 10 0 10 30
DLN 36 75 46 70 / 10 20 50 20
HVR 42 67 41 72 / 40 20 10 40
LWT 40 66 42 66 / 20 20 30 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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