265
FXUS65 KTFX 300558
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1158 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BUTTE TO BOZEMAN.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES SOUTH, DRIVING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
I-15 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND OVER
SOUTHWEST MT DURING THE DAY, ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND NON-
IMPACTFUL.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO FORM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES ON
SATURDAY, CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BREAK
DOWN. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS. - MOLDAN AND DZOMBA
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY OVER THE AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES OR MORE. CHANCES GREATLY DECREASE OVER
THIS EVENING, LEADING WAY TO A WARM AND DRY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT FOG IN THE
TERMINALS. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 33 62 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 31 64 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 34 62 35 72 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 27 58 30 67 / 10 10 0 0
WYS 19 50 19 60 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 28 58 31 67 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 29 64 34 77 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 28 56 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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