113
FXUS65 KTFX 271757
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1157 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MOSTLY A PASSING MOUNTAIN RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SNOW ON SUNDAY.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 355 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE RAIN/SNOW
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, AND SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS MORNING SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT, WITH SHOWERS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A BIT OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THUS WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUN INTO
MON, AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM WA
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS UT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS, OR JUST A TOUCH BELOW FOR MOST AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TODAY, MOSTLY FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A FEW INCHES EXPECTED TODAY. SINCE
LOGAN'S PASS IS CLOSED, NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD IMPACTS START TO DEVELOP ON MARIAS PASS, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT TIME.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AROUND BIG SKY, BOZEMAN AND NORTHWARD
TO KINGS HILL. THUS A WINTER STATEMENT MIGHT BE NEEDED THIS
WEEKEND FOR SOME MOUNTAIN RANGES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SO FORECAST MODELS ARE
SHOWING MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, RATHER THAN A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PAN OUT, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. BRUSDA
AVIATION
27/18Z TAF PERIOD
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HI-LINE THROUGH THE EVENING
TODAY, WITH CONSISTENT LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL TREND TO VFR
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE HI-LINE AND AT KWYS.
EVERYWHERE ALONG NORTH-CENTRAL MT, BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON, DOWN-TRENDING IN THE EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS AT KGTF LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PUT IT IN
THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT FOR KWYS, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.
-WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 36 51 30 / 30 0 0 10
CTB 46 29 43 23 / 30 0 10 30
HLN 49 25 49 24 / 10 10 10 0
BZN 47 24 48 23 / 0 10 0 0
WYS 38 18 37 14 / 40 30 10 0
DLN 45 23 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 50 28 48 22 / 80 20 0 10
LWT 48 30 50 28 / 40 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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