834
FXUS65 KTFX 101127
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
527 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING DRIER AND MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- NOT AS HOT NEXT WEEK BUT GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 306 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINGING HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND
PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN MONTANA. DRY, HOT AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL START FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AREAS FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
TERRAIN ENHANCED CONVECTION. WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH A CHANCE FOR
A 2-3 DEGREE COOLING EFFECT ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
MOVE OVER EARLY AFTERNOON. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
FOR MANY AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS AS WARM AS AROUND 70 IN THE
MISSOURI BREAKS PREVENTING MEANINGFUL OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SOUTHWEST MT AND MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS WILL SEE COOLER LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S WHICH WILL GIVE SOME RECOVERY.
AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BROADEN OVER CONUS NEXT WEEK, SOME EMBEDDED
TROUGHS ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA, HOWEVER
SEVERITY AND EXACT TIMING IS NOT KNOWN YET. - AKINS
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
BELOW ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100F THIS WEEKEND:
SAT 7/11 SUN 7/12
GREAT FALLS 30% 40%
BOZEMAN 10% 70%
HELENA 30% 40%
HAVRE 70% 70%
CUT BANK 0% 0%
LEWISTOWN 10% 70%
DILLON 0% 20%
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO
HIGHLIGHT MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
PEAK SUNDAY BUT IMPACTS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTER REPETITIVE
HOT DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT WHERE DEEPEST DAYTIME MIXING WILL
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ACCELERATE THE SEASONAL
CURING/DRYING OF VEGETATION. HOENISCH
AVIATION
10/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION IN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW MT,
THOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ARE AROUND 20% OR
LESS. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 94 59 99 60 / 0 20 0 0
CTB 86 57 90 57 / 0 20 0 0
HLN 91 60 98 62 / 0 20 0 0
BZN 90 57 97 60 / 0 20 0 10
WYS 86 47 91 49 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 88 54 94 55 / 20 20 0 0
HVR 92 59 100 61 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 89 56 97 58 / 20 20 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE
COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN
TOOLE AND LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-
GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-
NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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