312
FXUS65 KTFX 031106
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
506 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY OVER THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT
AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES ALREADY BEGIN TO TREND WARMER TUESDAY, AND WILL DO
SO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT ROUND OF HEAT LOOKS TO PEAK FRIDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ALSO RETURNING IN SOME AREAS THAT DAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1250 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY WILL RESULT IN QUITE A COOL DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AS OF PUBLISHING THIS DISCUSSION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
YIELD A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS
LOOKS TO BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRETHS.
BY TOMORROW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THAT SAID, A CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARMING TREND, AT LEAST FOR
A DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE RIDGE FULLY MOVES OVERHEAD TOWARD THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER TODAY THE REGION LOOKS DRY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS TIME, WITH BREEZY WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
UNFOLD, CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE INCREASE.
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS WANES INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE SOME FORM OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY EMBEDDED WAVES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL STRETCHES OF GUSTY WINDS OR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEY BE STRONG ENOUGH. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
LARGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE JUST HOW
BREEZY AND DRY IT WILL BE ON FRIDAY ACROSS MANY AREAS. ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE 700 MB FLOW IS ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS OR SO. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY, THESE WINDS SHOULD NOT STRUGGLE TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD THIS MID LEVEL FLOW TREND STRONGER,
CLOSER TO THE CURRENT 75TH PERCENTILE (20-25 KTS), THERE WOULD BE
INCREASED CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY. -AM
AVIATION
03/12Z TAF PERIOD
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN SOME BRIEF SUB-VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE DAYTIME MIXING HELPS TO RAISE CEILINGS. WHILE SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, CONFIDENCE IN THESE OCCURRING
AT ANY TAF SITE AT ANY SPECIFIC TIME WAS FAR TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TODAY, BUT MAINLY BE
ALOFT. HENCE, SLANT-RANGE VISIBILITY ISSUES WILL REMAIN.
FOR KGTF: WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
MORNING TODAY BEFORE BECOMING A BIT MORE VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAGNITUDE OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE 10 KTS OR LESS, YIELDING A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR 15KT+ CROSSWIND TODAY. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME
ICING RISK THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DEPTH OF A
LAYER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ICING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -AM
FIRE WEATHER
REMAINING CONCERNS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL INCLUDE A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AS OF WRITING THIS
DISCUSSION EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN A GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING. A PERSISTENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND ALONG AND EAST OF US-87 WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 70 47 78 49 / 20 0 0 0
CTB 66 42 74 46 / 20 0 0 0
HLN 72 47 79 48 / 20 10 0 0
BZN 72 43 78 46 / 20 0 0 0
WYS 71 33 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 72 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 70 43 79 48 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 64 42 73 46 / 40 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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