543
FXUS65 KTFX 110657
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1157 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THERE WILL BE LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IN SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT WILL BE DRY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNING
FOR THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE
WARM (WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES) AND DRY. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM (WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES) AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
PLAINS WEST OF I-15 IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM (WELL-ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES) AND DRY TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM
(WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES) TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
FOR LEVEL-ELEVATION LOCATIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. ON MONDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IT WILL
BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA IN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG TO FORM IN HILL AND NORTHERN BLAINE
COUNTY THIS MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 40 - 80% CHANCE FOR 2
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER ALONG THE MADISON AND GALLATIN RANGE NEAR
THE IDAHO BORDER. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN AN
80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. -IG
AVIATION
11/06Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 FROM
BUTTE TO BOZEMAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH OF I-90, INCREASING
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SNOW ON WED, MOSTLY
SOUTH OF A DILLON TO BIG SKY LINE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR
THE MT/ID BORDER, INCLUDING THE WEST YELLOWSTONE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WED. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED SOUTH OF I-90 FROM
BUTTE TO BOZEMAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 46 24 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 48 19 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 44 20 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 44 18 44 20 / 0 0 10 0
WYS 34 7 34 16 / 0 10 80 50
DLN 41 20 44 21 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 48 21 46 21 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 41 19 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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