113
FXUS65 KTFX 280555
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
DOWN TO WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
- SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE EAST GLACIER
AREA.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM TEMPERATURES
TO PERSIST WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. THE SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND WILL BE
PRIMARILY SNOW. ON THURSDAY THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTH- CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. HOWEVER COLD
AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM CANADA AND BRING WELL-BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY MORNING SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST GLACIER AREA. EVERYWHERE
ELSE ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY THE COOL AIR FROM CANADA REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA WHICH WILL KEEP BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE ON FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION
DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP COOL (SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE)
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THERE IS A 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES OF SNOW
OR GREATER. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AT MARIAS PASS THERE IS A
50 - 70% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A 50% CHANCE FOR ONE HALF INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AND A 20% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH PER HOUR. AS A RESULT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE EAST GLACIER PARK AREA FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
6 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WOULD BRING WELL-
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -IG
AVIATION
28/06Z TAF PERIOD
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2
OVERNIGHT FROM EAST OF CUT BANK TO HARLEM. ALSO, EXPECT RAIN/SNOW
TO AFFECT THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH THROUGH
PERIOD. DO EXPECT SOME MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS THE CWA TO BE
OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT THE CHANCES OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 37 51 29 / 20 0 0 10
CTB 46 30 43 24 / 40 0 10 30
HLN 49 27 48 25 / 10 10 10 0
BZN 47 25 45 24 / 0 10 0 0
WYS 38 18 37 14 / 40 30 10 0
DLN 45 24 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 50 30 48 23 / 90 20 0 10
LWT 48 30 48 27 / 20 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM MDT THURSDAY
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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