249
FXUS65 KTFX 040745
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1245 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT,
ESPECIALLY TODAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH CHANCES EXPANDING FURTHER EAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. BY SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP TO FLATTEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BENEATH THIS PATTERN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING
EAST WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HELP TO SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS ALL
ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. - MOLDAN
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...
PERIODS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW IN EXCESS OF 45KTS COMBINED WITH A
MODERATE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK,
MOST NOTABLY TODAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 48KTS OVER THESE THREE DAYS ARE IN EXCESS OF A
50% CHANCE. WHILE HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THESE DAYS THERE
IS A 25% CHANCE THAT GUSTS COULD REACH 60KTS
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY....
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT EXCEPTIONALLY, WITH RESPECT TO
FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA; WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO NEARLY 35 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY HIGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA,
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LEWISTOWN, TO FORT BENTON, TO CUT
BANK LINE WHERE THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM25PCT AND NBM75PCT IS
LARGELY BELOW 5 DEGREES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. EVEN IF HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACH THE REASONABLY LOW END OF POTENTIAL GUIDANCE (I.E.
NBM25PCT) THESE AREAS WOULD STILL BE REACHING OR ECLIPSING DAILY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHERE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES BECOMES
SLIGHTLY LOWER IS ACROSS THE MILK RIVER VALLEY AND IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE SPREAD BETWEEN REASONABLY LOW AND HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
APPROACHES 10 DEGREES. NONE-THE-LESS, EVEN HERE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE VERY MILD FOR FEBRUARY.
NBM25PCT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECT CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA; WHICH IS A REASONABLE
LOW END (I.E. COOLER) FORECAST FOR EACH RESPECTIVE DATE. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN WHAT IS
LISTED OR A 25% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN WHAT IS
LISTED.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY
CUT BANK APT 63F | 70F | 65F
HAVRE APT 57F | 59F | 53F
GREAT FALLS APT 65F | 67F | 65F
LEWISTOWN APT 62F | 68F | 66F
HELENA APT 59F | 59F | 60F
BOZEMAN APT 57F | 60F | 62F
DILLON APT 58F | 61F | 63F
NBM75PCT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECT CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA; WHICH IS A REASONABLE
HIGH END (I.E. WARMER) FORECAST FOR EACH RESPECTIVE DATE. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN WHAT IS
LISTED OR A 25% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN WHAT IS
LISTED.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY
CUT BANK APT 67F | 74F | 70F
HAVRE APT 64F | 65F | 67F
GREAT FALLS APT 67F | 73F | 72F
LEWISTOWN APT 64F | 72F | 70F
HELENA APT 63F | 68F | 69F
BOZEMAN APT 61F | 68F | 69F
DILLON APT 61F | 67F | 66F
THE FINAL TABLE BELOW REFLECTS THE PROBABILITY OF BREAKING THE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SELECT CITIES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON THE 4TH (WEDNESDAY), 5TH
(THURSDAY), AND 6TH (FRIDAY) OF FEBRUARY.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY
CUT BANK 72% BREAKING 63F | 95% BREAKING 65F | 67% BREAKING 66F
HAVRE 31% BREAKING 61F | 76% BREAKING 58F | 0% BREAKING 63F
GREAT FALLS 90% BREAKING 62F | 96% BREAKING 62F | 72% BREAKING 65F
LEWISTOWN 68% BREAKING 62F | 98% BREAKING 60F | 74% BREAKING 66F
HELENA 34% BREAKING 61F | 39% BREAKING 63F | 31% BREAKING 67F
BOZEMAN 13% BREAKING 62F | 29% BREAKING 65F | 80% BREAKING 61F
DILLON 53% BREAKING 57F | 80% BREAKING 57F | 84% BREAKING 59F
- MOLDAN
AVIATION
04/06Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS INCREASE A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY OVER THE PLAINS, BUT
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. -AM
FIRE WEATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 35
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF BETWEEN 20-40% WILL HELP TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GRASSLANDS WHERE THE GROUND IS SNOW FREE.
THE ELEVATED CONCERNS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT TODAY WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR. - MOLDAN
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SETTING NEW ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY THIS WEEK. THE
TABLE BELOW REFLECTS THE CURRENT ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR SELECT CLIMATE SITES ACROSS THE CWA.
LOCATION
CUT BANK 71F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
HAVRE 74F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
GREAT FALLS 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
LEWISTOWN 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1932
HELENA 69F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
BOZEMAN 66F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995
DILLON 64F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1988 AND FEBRUARY 28, 1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 64 41 68 29 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 63 44 67 27 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 58 29 59 27 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 56 27 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 40 11 47 9 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 56 27 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 58 36 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 60 37 68 30 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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