845
FXUS65 KTFX 141905
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
105 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND NORTH CENTRAL MT.
- AREAS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THEN RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- BEGINNING THURSDAY, WIDESPREAD WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTERLY TRACK OUT OF THE
REGION, IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MILDER WINDS AND OVERALL DRIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AS A WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTERLY INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTERLY THROUGH THE REGION OVER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW, BRINGING WARM, DRY, AND MILDER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -ESH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH TODAY. FERGUS
COUNTY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL (AREAS OF 70%<
CHANCE OF 24 HR MAX WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 55 MPH), SO IT
CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT.
FOR THE SHOWER EVENT BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION (AROUND 50% CHANCE OF RAIN TOTALS .25"
OR ABOVE BETWEEN THURSDAY 6 AM- SATURDAY 6 AM MDT).
CURRENT TIME PERIOD FOR HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY IS 12 PM
FRIDAY-12 AM SATURDAY MDT, 20-35% CHANCE ACROSS THE REGION. -ESH
AVIATION
14/18Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS, WITH AROUND 40 KTS
NEAR KCTB. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING,
AROUND 01-02Z FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KCTB AND KLWT, WHICH WILL
SEE WINDS DECREASE CLOSER TO 05Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AROUND LINGERING SHOWERS.
WHILE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MT TERMINALS
THIS EVENING, THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS. -DZOMBA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 41 64 45 59 / 10 0 20 20
CTB 41 57 42 57 / 20 10 70 10
HLN 40 69 45 65 / 0 0 10 0
BZN 36 71 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 26 66 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 34 72 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 41 66 45 65 / 20 0 70 10
LWT 39 65 41 61 / 10 0 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FERGUS COUNTY
BELOW 4500FT-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page