850
FXUS65 KTFX 090525
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT, THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FRI AND SAT.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD WETTER WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 538 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A QUIET NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER MT. HOWEVER, A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
CREATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS
STILL QUITE LOW.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FRI/SAT WILL BE THE FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON BOTH FRI/SAT AFTERNOON'S THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH SATURDAY BEING THE MORE
LIKELY DAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WETTING RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING
TO AROUND 5000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUN/MON, BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY WARM BACK UP A BIT ON MON/TUE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND AGAIN ON
SAT, WITH SAT STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS.
IN TERMS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION, A WIDESPREAD LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT OF 0.30 TO 0.60 LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE CWA
FROM SUN INTO MON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000
FEET, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SUN/MON
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. BRUSDA
AVIATION
09/06Z TAF PERIOD
MID- TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE AND
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS, AND A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BETWEEN 09/09 AND 09/22Z, MOSTLY FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS. THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL OBSCURE
MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTRAL MT ISLAND RANGES.- RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 28 53 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 23 51 24 63 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 32 59 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 30 60 30 68 / 0 0 0 10
WYS 27 59 27 64 / 0 0 0 30
DLN 33 64 33 69 / 0 0 0 10
HVR 25 53 27 68 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 27 51 27 64 / 10 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page