293
FXUS65 KTFX 101201
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
601 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY AND BREEZY TODAY.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MONTANA, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 215 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
IN THE WAKE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
A WEAK RIDGE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WARMER BUT BREEZY WEATHER TO NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA TODAY. THIS PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO A QUICK
END ON FRIDAY AS A DECAYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA INTO MONTANA, WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL LINGER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL SET UP THE NEXT,
STRONGER SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW
EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS TODAY: WESTERLY, CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA TODAY. WHILE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA
(58 MPH FOR MOST, 75 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT), GUSTS TO
35-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND NORTH SLOPES OF THE LITTLE BELTS, WHERE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE TREASURE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 7000 FEET ABOVE
SEA LEVEL, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TO
AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER 6 INCHES AT THE MOMENT, BUT SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
STILL HAVE AROUND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
FOOT OVER THE WEEKEND. LUDWIG
AVIATION
10/12Z TAF PERIOD
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITION ACROSS ALL TERMINAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN
TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 6Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20-35KT ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE, WITH
TERMINALS KCTB, KGTF, AND KHVR LIKELY SEEING GUSTS ON THE UPPER
END OF THAT RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD, ONLY
LIGHTENING UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 0Z.
-JR/LUDWIG
FOR KGTF: GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED WITH RUNWAY
21 THROUGH 18Z, AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN CROSSWINDS GETTING
CLOSE TO 15KTS BY 18Z, THEN EXCEEDING 15KTS AFTER 0Z. WINDS WILL
THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AFTER 6Z, AT WHICH POINT WINDS (AND
THEREFORE CROSSWINDS) WILL DROP BELOW 10KTS. LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 81 48 59 43 / 0 80 60 10
CTB 73 42 54 39 / 0 50 80 10
HLN 84 50 68 46 / 0 70 60 0
BZN 84 48 73 44 / 0 0 10 10
WYS 72 36 72 31 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 82 46 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 82 45 64 38 / 0 40 70 0
LWT 84 45 60 39 / 0 50 90 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR MONTANA FIRE WEATHER ZONES 111 AND 123 TODAY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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