219
FXUS65 KTFX 021044
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
444 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
-IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LINGERING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
-TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN
COOL ON TUESDAY.
-IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK UP BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1241 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
TODAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. IN ADDITION AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DUE
TO THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. TODAY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND MID-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
GLACIER COUNTY. IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY. THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW ON SOME MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. SUNDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTY. ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA. ON MONDAY IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. ON MONDAY IT WILL BE
BREEZY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
ON TUESDAY THERE IS ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A FEW
DEGREES WITH DRY WEATHER. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON SUNDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55
MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AS
A RESULT A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL
NOON TODAY. ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE IS GREATER THAN A 80% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER. THIS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% LEADS TO RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAINING IN
AFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ON MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE HI-LINE THERE IS GREATER THAN
A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING THERE IS A 10 - 30% FOR A TRACE OR
SNOW ON THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF GLACIER
NATIONAL PARK. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THERE IS A 10 - 30%
CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS FERGUS AND SOUTHERN
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE IS GREATER THAN AN 80% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES LESS 75 DEGREES. ON MONDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50%
CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 70 DEGREES ALONG THE HI-LINE.
-IG
AVIATION
02/12Z TAF PERIOD
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS MORNING NEAR THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AS DAYTIME MIXING ENSUES. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PLAINS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FOR KGTF: BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING, SLOWLY
TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE PROBABILITY FOR A 15KT+ CROSS-WIND REMAINS LOW THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASES TO ABOVE 50% BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PUSH
OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING SOME TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z
AND PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING. INCREASED HUMIDITY IN THE
0C TO -10C LAYER WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST BRIEF/MINOR ICING
CONCERNS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. -AM
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER DISTRICTS. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY,
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BRING A SHARP WIND SHIFT
FROM WESTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 85 51 70 47 / 0 0 10 0
CTB 74 45 67 43 / 0 10 10 0
HLN 84 50 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 90 49 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 85 39 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 87 46 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 85 48 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 84 49 66 43 / 0 20 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-CHOUTEAU AND
FERGUS COUNTIES-EASTERN GLACIER/TOOLE/CENTRAL/EASTERN
PONDERA/LIBERTY-HELENA AND TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES-LEWIS AND CLARK
NATIONAL FOREST ROCKY MOUNTAIN DISTRICT-ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
LINCOLN RANGER DISTRICT OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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