522
FXUS65 KTFX 260546
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1146 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
- TEMPERATURES MIGHT GO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY, BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURN BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A LARGE
CIRCULATION, WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COOL AIR ALOFT, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DAILY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT SOME SHORT PERIODS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAT SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TODAY AND
MONDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAYS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS TROF WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA, WITH A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AIR PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA, BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVENT A THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE BACK INTO THE CWA BY SUNDAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IN THE BROWNING AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, I ONLY HAVE
ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES,
THUS HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
THAT AN SPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
26/06Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KWYS AND KHLN TERMINALS DURING
THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. AT THE KCTB, KHVR, KLWT, AND KGTF
TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW AND 26/12Z THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND. AFTER 26/16Z THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AT ALL BUT
THE KCTB AND KHVR TERMINALS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY DOWN TO AT LEAST 3 MILES BUT THERE IS A LOW
CHANCED FOR THEM TO REDUCE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE. DURING THE
MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE A LEAST MVFR-LEVEL
CEILINGS AT THE KGTF, KHVR, KCTB, AND KLWT TERMINALS. THERE WILL
BE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA PERIODICALLY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 25 38 22 48 / 30 50 20 30
CTB 21 34 13 46 / 50 60 10 10
HLN 23 42 24 49 / 10 40 30 50
BZN 22 46 25 46 / 10 40 50 70
WYS 17 44 20 43 / 10 70 70 80
DLN 24 49 27 47 / 10 30 50 60
HVR 23 41 18 48 / 30 30 10 10
LWT 20 38 20 43 / 30 50 40 50
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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