106
FXUS65 KTFX 080457
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1057 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
- AN ACTIVE, COOLER WEEK FORECASTED.
- GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR FROST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT WITH SOME SOUTHWEST MT
VALLEYS HAVING A CONCERN FOR A HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION OVER THAT TIME FRAME.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY WILL ADVECT IN WEAK INSTABILITY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. COLD AIR ALOFT
WORKING IT'S WAY DOWN WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS FALLING AS LOW AS 6,500FT WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL AT THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
700MB WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM EXITS, ANOTHER WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
MODELS DO DIVERGE A LITTLE BIT THIS WEEKEND, BUT GENERALLY IT LOOKS
TO TREND MORE ACTIVE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
MODELS DO HAVE THE 700MB JET INCREASING TO 40 TO 50KTS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTIAN FRONT. THESE WINDS
DO SPREAD A BIT FARTHER OUT TO CENTRAL MT ON WEDNESDAY, SPREADING
OUT THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH
WINDS IS LOW, WITH UP TO A 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR 50 MPH WINDS
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL MT AND A 60% CHANCE AT JUDITH BASIN COUNTY.
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THERE'S A 40-60% CHANCE FOR 58 MPH
WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY.
IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST AREA TO GET PRECIPITATION IS SOUTHWEST MT
WHERE THEY HAVE A 40-70% CHANCE FOR 0.5" OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. EVERYWHERE ELSE, THERE IS GENERALLY BETWEEN A
30 TO 70% CHANCE FOR 0.1" OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. -WILSON
AVIATION
08/00Z TAF PERIOD
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AND ENDS BY AROUND 08/03Z
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL TAKING PLACE LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT, WITH
SEASONABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON MONDAY. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ONCE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DEPART THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOME WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS BETWEEN 08/09 AND 08/15Z. LEFT THE
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW, BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE
KBZN AND KWYS. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 37 71 48 / 100 0 0 0
CTB 56 36 67 44 / 50 20 0 0
HLN 57 34 71 49 / 90 0 0 10
BZN 57 29 71 47 / 80 10 0 10
WYS 62 25 64 37 / 30 0 0 70
DLN 60 30 70 46 / 30 0 0 30
HVR 59 37 73 47 / 80 20 0 0
LWT 52 32 69 45 / 80 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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