061
FXUS65 KTFX 011953
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
153 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM UP
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IT WILL WARM UP WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY DUE TO A
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE COOL
(WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES) FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA. ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE
WILL BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY. ON TUESDAY THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT RAIN TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
ON TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
WARM UP. ON TUESDAY IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
MONTANA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALLOWS
ALL BUT THE HI-LINE TO BE DRY ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE HI-LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AND BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ON
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON
FRIDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
TO WARM UP WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON
SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH MONTANA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON TUESDAY THERE IS A 30 - 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON TUESDAY THERE IS A 30 - 50%
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THERE IS GREATER
THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER. ON TUESDAY
THERE IS A 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER
ALONG MOST OF THE HI-LINE. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE
FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A 40 - 60%
CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER ACROSS FERGUS AND
JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES.
ON THURSDAY THERE IS A 30 - 50% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON THURSDAY ACROSS
JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES THERE IS A 50 - 60% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT WHEN STORMS MOVE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. IF THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEY WILL BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE WHILE IF THEY OCCUR BEFORE NOON THEN THEY WILL BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 15 - 45% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
-IG
AVIATION
01/18Z TAF PERIOD
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MT/SK BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT WHERE THERE WILL BE A FEW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT MOST CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL
MT TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS/VIS IN EMBEDDED AREAS
OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION, WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCTB AND
KGTF. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BECOME GUSTY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE AT N-CENTRAL MT
TERMINALS. HOENISCH
HYDROLOGY
AT THIS TIME, NO AREAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS THE ST. MARY RIVER AND BADGER CREEK. BOTH STREAMS
ARE JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH SNOW FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY, THIS SHOULD SLOW RIVER RISES A BIT, EVEN WITH THE LOWER
ELEVATION RAINS. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FLOOD
STATEMENT MIGHT BE NEED LATER TODAY, OR EVEN LATER THIS WEEK,
SHOULD THE STREAMS START TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
NOTE, IMPACTS ARE MINOR ON BOTH STREAMS IF THE RIVERS DO GO JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE STREAMS ARE A FEW FEET
ABOVE STAGE THAT IMPACTS START TO BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 42 56 41 68 / 90 90 10 10
CTB 37 50 37 64 / 90 90 10 20
HLN 42 62 43 74 / 20 50 10 10
BZN 37 65 38 75 / 20 10 0 10
WYS 29 66 31 72 / 30 0 0 0
DLN 37 68 38 75 / 10 0 0 10
HVR 39 55 40 68 / 90 90 40 20
LWT 37 56 37 67 / 60 70 10 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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