992
FXUS65 KTFX 181131
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
531 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY, MOSTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE
PLAINS.
- MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 131 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE
WILL REACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20
TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY; HOWEVER,
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BE QUITE STRONG AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND EVEN A FEW MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, MOSTLY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS.
WHILE IT LOOKS WINDY EVERYDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, THE
STRONGEST H700 WINDS LOOK TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH WILL PLACE A HEAVIER RELIANCE ON
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TO TRANSFER THE STRONGER GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, INSTANCES THESE LOCALIZED
AND SHORTER DURATION WINDS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ON THE NORTH AND EAST ASPECTS OF THE
CENTRAL ISLAND RANGES. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL MIXING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A STRONGER H700 JET STILL
LOOKS TO CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
AND BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONGER WINDS.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO WEAKEN
THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERY, WINDY CONDITIONS WHILE
TEMPERATURES COOL CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. BY
THIS TIME, A CANADIAN FRONT SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF STRONGER WINDS INTO SOUTHWEST MT. NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH BY MID- NEXT WEEK. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE BEEN OVERALL LIGHTER AND
MORE LOCALIZED THAN LAST NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING A MOUNTAIN
WAVE OVER CASCADE COUNTY THAT BROUGHT AROUND AN HOUR OF 40 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND 60 MPH GUSTS. THIS WAS MOSTLY LOCALIZED TO
AREAS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON POPULATED
AREAS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND IN CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY EACH NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BROAD AND
GENERAL WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. ADDING FERGUS COUNTY WAS
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING THAT COVERED
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ZONES, EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY, AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JUDITH BASIN. THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF FERGUS COUNTY WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SIMILAR MAPPED WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IMPACTS THE
MAGNITUDE OF WINDS FOR NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE HOW FAST A CANADIAN
FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND UNDERCUTS THE ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT. THE GFS
SUITE TYPICALLY HANDLES THESE SCENARIOS A LITTLE BETTER THAN OTHER
ENSEMBLES AND TIMES THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS WILL
ROUGHLY RUN FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING THE FOCUS INTO SOUTHWEST MT. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE GONE DOWN SOME AND BECOME
A LITTLE MORE LOCALIZED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, BUT IT STILL
HIGHLIGHTS THE NORMAL PROBLEM AREAS WITH A ROUGH 30 TO 60% CHANCE,
INCLUDING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, PLAINS WEST OF OF I15,
CENTRAL MT 87/200 CORRIDOR, AND THE NARROW SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MT. - RCG
AVIATION
18/12Z TAF PERIOD
A MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
PERIODS OF LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE WINDS. THERE WILL BE THE
PRESENCE OF MOSTLY MID - TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL MT BETWEEN 18/14 AND 18/19Z.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WILL BE SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION; HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT
THE TERMINALS. - RCG
FIRE WEATHER
WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST MT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 TO 40 MPH
LOOK TO DEVELOP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MADISON AND
BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -WILSON
HYDROLOGY
CONTINUED WARMING THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT OUT RECENT
HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN JUDITH
BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES. A RISE IN SMALL CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED AS A RESULT, WITH SOME SMALL CREEKS RUNNING HIGH. WATER
PONDING IN FIELDS AND MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS/DOOR DRAINAGE
AREAS DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS ARE POSSIBLE. ALONG THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 7,000FT WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO MIX IN WITH SNOW. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL LOW. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 63 48 68 50 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 58 41 64 41 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 65 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 71 38 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 57 23 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 70 38 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 67 41 71 43 / 30 0 0 0
LWT 62 42 68 46 / 20 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
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