925
FXUS65 KTFX 141857
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1257 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIONEER MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT REMAIN BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, MOST NOTABLY THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OVERALL NORTH-TO-EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND BELOW-TO-NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK. OVER THIS
STRETCH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO NORMAL, WITH
RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES, AS SURFACE WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SUPPORTING SOME "WARMING" AS COMPARED TO THE
SATURDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH
AND EAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST NOTABLY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WILL GENERALLY
BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
ERODES LEADING TO INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. - MOLDAN
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FLOODING RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING:
12Z HI-RES ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A 20-30%
CHANCE THAT HOURLY RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 0.25"/HR FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS TONIGHT OVER THE BURN SCARS
ACROSS THE PIONEER MOUNTAINS, WITH THESE PROBABILITIES APPEARING
REASONABLE GIVEN MORNING OBSERVATIONS OF BETWEEN 0.1"-0.3" ACROSS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. GIVEN THAT THE THRESHOLD
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS SO LOW OVER THE ACTIVE FIRES IN THE PIONEERS,
AND THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN OVER THE PREVIOUS
24 HOURS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING.
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ON THE THE HORSE GULCH BURN SCAR REMAIN
LOWER THAN THAT OF THE PIONEER MOUNTAIN BURN SCARS GIVEN A LOWER
PROBABILITY FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES TO EXCEED 0.5"/HR HERE, WITH
THESE PROBABILITIES BEING AROUND A 10% CHANCE. WHILE FLASH FLOODING
CAN NOT BE RULED ACROSS THE HORSE GULCH BURN SCAR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT CONFIDENCE IN ANY FLOODING REMAINS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A FLASH FOOD WATCH. -MOLDAN/AM
AVIATION
14/18Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, RESULTING IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE FOR
KBZN, KEKS, KWYS AND KHLN AROUND 14/05Z, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. KGTF AND KLWT WILL HAVE VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
STARTING AROUND 15/07Z. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AROUND 15/11Z
FOR KGTF, WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE IN KLWT UNTIL AROUND 15/15Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
FOR KGTF: LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DOMINATE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 15/02Z, AND
WHILE UNLIKELY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING. WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING, MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS 15/07Z - 15/11Z DUE TO
FOG. LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE A NEAR ZERO PROBABILITY OF A 15 KT
CROSS-WIND. ICING REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON, AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FEATURE AT LEAST A SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS
IN THE 0C TO -15C RANGE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. -DZOMBA
HYDROLOGY
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BOBCAT LAKES AND
SAND CREEK BURN SCARS IN THE PIONEER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF BURNING THAT OCCURRED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK SOILS ARE LIKELY TO BE HYDROPHOBIC,
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STEEP AND COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE PIONEER
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS. - MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 77 51 84 / 50 10 10 10
CTB 44 73 46 78 / 20 10 10 10
HLN 50 77 51 82 / 40 30 30 10
BZN 46 76 46 79 / 60 30 50 0
WYS 34 71 34 74 / 70 40 60 10
DLN 46 73 45 77 / 40 70 50 10
HVR 49 77 49 85 / 50 10 20 0
LWT 49 72 50 78 / 60 30 50 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE BURN SCARS IN
THE PIONEER MOUNTAINS.
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