527
FXUS65 KTFX 090003
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
603 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2022
..AVIATION SECTION UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
HOT SURFACE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM.
DISCUSSION
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CONUS. WITH AN APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY, GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 15 MPH TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME CALMER BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO STRONGER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. CLEAR SKIES
AND HOT TEMPERATURES WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER THE ID/WY BORDER LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING UPPER LEVEL WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE FROM ENSEMBLE MODELS, WE
CAN EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST,
WE EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST OF WA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
MOVING NORTHEAST INLAND OF CANADA. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER 90S. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
ANY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. -WEBB
AVIATION
603 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2022 (09/00Z TAF PERIOD)
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
AIRFIELDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KWYS, WHERE FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
OVERNIGHT MIST CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS.
KWYS MAY FALL INTO IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. TOMORROW'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A FOCUS ON DENSITY
ALTITUDE ISSUES.
- FOGLEMAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 96 53 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 91 52 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 96 57 96 62 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 94 51 95 56 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 80 37 84 43 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 89 49 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 96 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 92 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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