125
FXUS65 KTFX 040922
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
322 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMTH AND DRYNESS CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON MONDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP EARLY THIS WEEK WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
MT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE SW US WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING SOME
AFTER MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY AS INCREASED MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FLATTENING
RIDGE PROVIDES SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS ALSO RESULTS IN INCREASED SURFACE WINDS ON MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH ARE LIKELY IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL MT
MOUNTAINS. AFTER PEAKING AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
MONDAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING DAILY
RECORDS, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FROM LONGER RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES
FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW US AND AT LEAST A MODEST DROP
IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. THE SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN IS THE DOWNSTREAM RESULT OF COMPLICATED INTERACTIONS THAT
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST PACIFIC THIS WEEK BETWEEN A TYPHOON AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NE ASIA. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND LIKELY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST
WITH MORE DETAILS TO COME AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOPING MONDAY AS ANOMALOUSLY
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED
ACROSS AREAS AREAS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MTN FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS WHERE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30-35 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE FUELS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY CRITICAL, THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER FIRE DANGER IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOENISCH
AVIATION
04/06Z TAF PERIOD.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARER
SKIES SETTLING IN FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE RISK OF
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AT
KHLN REMAINS LOW THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME, THOUGH I CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW DIPS IN VISIBILITY. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 79 53 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 73 47 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 78 48 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 78 45 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 74 34 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 80 45 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 75 45 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 79 53 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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