949
FXUS65 KTFX 050555
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TODAY BEING
THE HOTTEST DAY.
- WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATING PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT TODAY, INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THESE INCREASED WINDS MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BRINGING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES, WINDS, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE
TEENS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AN
TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA BEGINNING SATURDAY WILL
BRING A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION, DECREASING SNOW LEVELS. ENSEMBLES HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TIMING, HOW COLD IT GETS, AND OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY A LOT WITH EACH MODEL RUN, SO LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS NEXT INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEK:
FUELS ARE STILL CURING, WHICH LIMITS THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER, AFTER TODAY, FUELS WILL BECOME
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR FIRE GROWTH AFTER THE PROLONGED WARMING AND
DRY PERIOD THIS WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AGAIN FRIDAY, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NEXT INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM:
THERE REMAINS MODEL VARIABILITY WITH HOW COLD IT GETS THIS WEEKEND
AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW SNOW REACHING THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE'S A 30-60% CHANCE FOR 1" OF SNOW ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A 20-50% CHANCE FOR 3" OF SNOW. CONSIDERABLE
VARIATIONS IN MODELS RUNS STILL LEAVE DETAILS UNCERTAIN, BUT WE
WILL WATCH ON HOW THIS SYSTEM TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. -WILSON
AVIATION
05/06Z TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO SOME VARIABLE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ON
MONDAY. LOCAL INSTANCES OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES INCREASES.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASE AT TAF SITES ON THE
PLAINS MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A PERIOD WITH
SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 79 53 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 73 48 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 78 48 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 78 46 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 74 36 76 36 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 80 46 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 75 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 79 54 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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