157
FXUS65 KTFX 291002
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MT TODAY, ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES.
- OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF A HAVRE TO STANFORD LINE ON
SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE.
- IT TURNS WARMER, ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS TRYING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MT TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL
ALSO IMPACTS PARTS OF THE CWA AS WELL. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THEY HAVE BEEN, ALONG
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. THUS ANY SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, GENERALLY EAST OF A HAVRE TO
STANFORD LINE.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90
DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RESIDE JUST TO OUR WEST DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA, MAINLY FROM WED THRU THU. THIS FRONT COULD PRODUCE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH DEW POINTS AND A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY GIVES A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT POTENTIAL.
BRUSDA
AVIATION
29/12Z TAF PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS
IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE SOME CLEARING. SOUTHWEST MT IS THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR FOG, WHERE LIFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY, WITH NORTH CENTRAL MT THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
CWA BY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. BRUSDA
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
HYDROLOGY
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME TODAY. THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IN THE STANFORD, LEWISTOWN AND WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS
AREA. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 74 52 84 53 / 70 30 10 10
CTB 71 48 83 51 / 50 10 0 10
HLN 77 54 83 54 / 60 30 10 10
BZN 77 49 80 48 / 30 20 10 10
WYS 71 37 72 36 / 20 10 10 10
DLN 76 45 78 45 / 10 10 0 0
HVR 71 54 81 53 / 70 40 20 10
LWT 69 51 76 53 / 80 50 20 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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