970
FXUS65 KTFX 121732
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SNOW THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS, WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
MORNING FOG.
- AFTER TODAY THE REGION LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OR WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AS THIS OCCURS. MOST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
DIMINISHES THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
SW MT SOUTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PIVOTS IN ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
SUBTLE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP CLEAR
SKIES A BIT. GIVEN RECENT PRECIPITATION THE CONCERN WILL BE FOR BOTH
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL AS FOR FOG BY TUESDAY MORNING IN MANY
AREAS. THIS CONCERN MORE OR LESS EXISTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL,
THOUGH THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW PACK REMAINS BY
THEN.
AFTER UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS AB/SK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. DRY CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH HIGHS TRENDING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
LINGERING SNOW THIS MORNING:
AS OF ISSUANCE OF THIS DISCUSSION, IMPACTFUL SNOW HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS SW MT. IMPROVEMENTS SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, WITH AREAS NEAR HAVRE BEING THE LAST
TO SEE THE IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE SNOW IS COMING TO AN END, IMPACTS
FROM THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN WILL NOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW. CONTINUE
TO PLAN FOR ADDITIONAL TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION TODAY.
FOG CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS:
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FEW MORNINGS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG AT
THIS TIME HORIZON IS LOWER FOR ANY SPECIFIC AREA, THOSE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL.
A FEW SOUNDINGS FEATURE RATHER DEEP SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE. WHILE A DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT PRESENTLY
FORECAST (FOG IS FAVORED), IT WILL BEAR MONITORING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
-AM
AVIATION
12/18Z TAF PERIOD
LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA, SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONALY DROPS
IN VISIBILITY BUT OVERALL REDUCTIONS SHOULD LIMITED. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY RISE AS OUR STORM SYSTEM EXITS EAST, BUT THE MOISTURE
BEHIND WILL PROMOTE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OR EVEN DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. -JR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 32 22 42 21 / 20 10 0 0
CTB 33 16 45 19 / 20 10 0 0
HLN 35 19 41 20 / 20 20 0 0
BZN 34 20 39 18 / 20 20 0 0
WYS 40 20 44 14 / 60 20 10 0
DLN 33 21 39 17 / 50 20 0 0
HVR 37 18 44 16 / 30 10 0 0
LWT 32 18 40 21 / 20 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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