248
FXUS65 KTFX 030604
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1204 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY.
- BREEZY AT TIMES ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND MAKE ITS
WAY EAST TOWARDS MONTANA KEEPING THE REGION WARM AND DRY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND FLATTEN THE
RIDGE A BIT WHICH, COMBINED WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW, WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES, TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES STARTING ON TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND THERE ARE HINTS IN THE
MODELS THAT A PATTERN SHIFT COULD ARRIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER. BUT WITH MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON HOW
EXACTLY THIS WILL PLAY OUT, CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO IS
STILL LOW.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 80S ACROSS
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ON MONDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING GREAT FALLS AND HELENA, EXPECTED TO GET WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OF THE DAILY RECORD. THE WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT
GIVEN THAT THE FUEL CONDITION IS NOT CRITICAL, NO PRODUCTS WILL BE
CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEKEND, THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT HAVE POINTED TOWARDS
MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUN SUGGESTING EVEN SOME LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
A "WINDSHIELD WIPER" EFFECT GOING ON BETWEEN MODEL RUNS, WITH ONE
RUN BEING MORE ROBUST ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL AND THE NEXT ONE TAKING
IT AWAY, IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT FOLKS TAKE ANY MENTION OF
SNOW WITH A GRAIN OF SALT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND. A
PATTERN SHIFT TOWARDS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO IS LOW. -THOR
AVIATION
03/06Z TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCES EXITING SE AB OVERNIGHT
MAY AFFECT THE KHVR TERMINAL WITH SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS FAR SOUTH AS KGTF AND KLWT. OTHERWISE, JUST
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 68 41 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 64 36 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 70 41 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 71 37 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 70 30 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 72 40 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 68 37 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 67 40 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page