486
FXUS65 KTFX 010232
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
732 PM MST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF BLAINE COUNTY TONIGHT.
- VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DAILY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- A BIT WINDY AT TIMES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR MOSTLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
BEGINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
THE MAIN THING THAT WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS THE
MENTION OF FOG ALONG THE MILK RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MOVING
INTO THE MILK RIVER VALLEY. FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. THE HREF HAS A 40-70% CHANCE FOR 0.25 VISIBILITY
TONIGHT. IF FOG DOES BECOME DENSE, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE. -WILSON
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 421 PM MST WED DEC 31 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO BLAINE COUNTY. OVERALL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
PRODUCING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE
WESTERN EDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE A BIT WEST, CLIPPING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF BLAINE COUNTY. THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING FOG/MIST IN
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CWA.
FOR NEW YEARS DAY, EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
A BIT HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOSTLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASES ON THU NIGHT, AND SPREADS FURTHER NORTH
INTO CENTRAL MT AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE/IF ANY PRECIPITATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THUS ANY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE LIGHT, WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN RANGES GETTING ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND, THEN
MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEXT WEEK.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR MOST AREAS.
DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT, AS MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF MIXING
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BRUSDA
AVIATION
01/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR FOG WENT DOWN FOR KHVR SO IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED WITH THIS ROUND OF TAFS. THAT BEING SAID, FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WHICH MAY PUSH KHVR INTO MVFR/IFR TERRITORY SHOULD IT
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LLWS AND
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH AT
LEAST 01/10Z BEFORE WINDS START TO CALM DOWN. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 49 34 50 / 0 0 10 10
CTB 22 42 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 24 39 29 46 / 0 0 20 10
BZN 22 42 29 47 / 0 10 30 10
WYS 11 34 24 35 / 0 50 80 70
DLN 24 41 31 47 / 0 10 20 0
HVR 17 29 16 33 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 29 50 30 50 / 0 0 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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