700
FXUS65 KTFX 292349
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
549 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS, THEN WINDS
SUBSIDE.
- COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN WARMING AGAIN UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 154 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER
THE COMING WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW AS OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD, ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, SAVE FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN EAST
OF A GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE LINE ON THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS RIDGE MAY QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WOULD BRING ANOTHER COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WIND TONIGHT: WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WHERE
SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THERE IS A LOW RISK (~10-20
PERCENT) OF THESE WAVES ATTEMPTING TO PROPAGATE A BIT ONTO THE
PLAINS, BUT THE OVERALL PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTIVE FOR THESE TO CAUSE IMPACTS FURTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS.
AS SUCH, I HAVE OPTED AGAINST A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LUDWIG
AVIATION
30/00Z TAF PERIOD
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF PROMINENT MOUNTAIN
RANGES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 10Z TOMORROW MORNING AS WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND PERIOD HOWEVER KWYS COULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY FROM 30/14Z TO 16Z DUE TO MIST AND LOW
CEILINGS. PROBABILITY FOR THIS EVENT IS NOT HIGH THOUGH AS THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SECTORIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR AIRFIELDS SEEING HIGHER WINDS DUE TO BLOWING DUST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. - AKINS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 54 66 41 63 / 0 10 0 10
CTB 47 56 35 58 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 48 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 45 70 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 34 67 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 44 71 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 52 64 38 62 / 0 10 0 20
LWT 50 65 39 62 / 0 10 0 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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