669
FXUS65 KTFX 210858
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
258 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES,
PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-80S
TO UPPER-90S. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY...
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS MORNING, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOPING AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MID- TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER
OUR CWA WHILE TEMPERATURES JUMP ABOUT 10 DEGREES MONDAY FROM
SUNDAY'S HIGHS AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
WARRANT A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY WITH A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER-80S TO MID-90S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY WHERE A FEW UPPER-90S READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD
HAVRE AND THE MILK RIVER VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY, WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING IN ITS WAKE STRONG WESTERLY
BREEZES AND MIXING DOWN VERY DRY AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD REMAIN EAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO REBOUND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MT THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND OVER/NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. A COOLING TREND OCCURS
DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED 1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019 (06Z TAFS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM THE AREA BETWEEN 07-09Z. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 12Z OVER
MANY AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT, INCLUDING KCTB AND KHVR, AND
POSSIBLY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS KGTF AND KLWT (THOUGH WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE). OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 78 52 89 60 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 75 47 86 54 / 10 0 0 10
HLN 83 52 91 59 / 0 0 0 20
BZN 80 49 90 54 / 0 0 10 20
WEY 83 42 86 47 / 0 0 10 10
DLN 81 50 88 55 / 0 0 20 10
HVR 80 53 89 59 / 10 0 0 10
LWT 74 50 84 57 / 10 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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