528
FXUS65 KTFX 220512
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
- TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY IT WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN EACH DAY TO
HAVE WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 409 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL COOL
DOWN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
ON THURSDAY A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PULL SOME
COLD AIR FROM CANADA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN HILL AND BLAINE
COUNTY. ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN, BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IT WILL
ALSO BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP FURTHER WITH DRY
WEATHER. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ALONG MOST OF THE HI-LINE. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM MINT AND NBM MAXT WERE WARMER THAN THE 50TH
PERCENTILE NBM MAXT AND THE 50TH PERCENTILE NBM MINT. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TO BE CLOSER TO THE NBM
50TH PERCENTILE. ON FRIDAY MORNING THERE IS A 25 - 50% CHANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES OF 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS HILL AND NORTHERN BLAINE
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THERE IS GREATER
THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OF 10 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT AN EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR HILL AND
BLAINE COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. -IG
AVIATION
22/06Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO BE A MORE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING, MAKING INROADS INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. LOW-VFR OR MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE NORTHERLY
WINDS AT TIMES, WHICH WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP LATE-DAY THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA, BUT WAS TOO LOW OF
PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 9 18 -5 8 / 0 10 20 10
CTB 4 13 -9 7 / 0 10 10 0
HLN 11 22 1 12 / 0 0 10 10
BZN 6 24 0 13 / 0 0 10 10
WYS -6 24 -6 18 / 0 0 0 20
DLN 12 28 6 18 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 4 9 -15 1 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 5 13 -8 5 / 0 10 40 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN
BLAINE COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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