700
FXUS65 KTFX 112326
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
526 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM
MOST DAYS.
- THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY TUESDAY,
WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 243 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY, WITH SOME
RECORD AFTERNOON DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT
DRY, THE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE WILL ACTUALLY BE UP TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER IN SOME AREAS ON SUNDAY. THUS I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT
ADVISORY. DO EXPECT A WIND SHIFT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS
HOT AS THIS PAST WEEKEND, BUT STILL VERY WARM. ALSO, SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA STARTING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ALMOST DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA. (THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.) SOME OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN, AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NEAR 1.50 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT BY TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS A
MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR TUE AND
WED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING. BRUSDA
AVIATION
12/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS CALM DOWN DURING THE EVENING, INCREASING AGAIN
AROUND 17-20Z. -DZOMBA
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT ON SUNDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHWEST MT IS THE ONE AREA WHERE
FUELS HAVE DRIED OUT, SO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT ARE NOW UNDER A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS THIS PAST
WEEKEND. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 61 101 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 58 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 63 100 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 60 103 60 98 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 48 97 50 95 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 55 99 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 62 102 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 59 104 59 98 / 0 0 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLAINE-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF THE
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHERN
BLAINE COUNTY-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
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