336
FXUS65 KTFX 250558
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1158 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH TODAY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS FOR THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR SOUTHWEST MT. DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1,500 J/KG
WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION. THIS
AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP INVERTED V PROFILES WITH 30-50KTS OF SHEAR.
DCAPE EXCEEDING 1,000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FORCING SUNDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE BIT WEAKER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MT. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOWER, BUT A VERY STRONG DRY
SURFACE LAYER WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAT REMAINS TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
STILL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW MID
100S AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COOLING DOWN TO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S THIS MORNING. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS
VALID FOR TODAY. SUNDAY WON'T BE AS HOT, AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DOWN TRENDED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
STILL BRING MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS. SUNDAY MORNING'S TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF COOLING, AS THERE WILL BE AROUND
A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 70 DEGREES. WITH
HEAT IMPACTS TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SUNDAY DUE TO MORE
COOLING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING GOT
TRANSITIONED INTO A HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS IN CASCADE,
CHOUTEAU, HILL, AND BLAINE COUNTIES.
THIS RIDGING PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURESWON'T BE AS HOT, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS ARE TRENDING NEXT WEEK AS DRIER, BUT WITH DECENT PWATS AND
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WIN THE RIDGE, I CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. -WILSON
AVIATION
25/06Z TAF PERIOD
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY, WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY BEING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE 2506/2606 TAF
PERIOD; HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A KLWT TO KHLN LINE BETWEEN 18-21Z SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH 00-02Z SUNDAY. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT BENEATH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS IF THEY WERE TO MOVE
OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
OF BETWEEN 30-45KTS. - MOLDAN
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH
VALUES BELOW 20%, FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH, AND HOT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING,
ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. THE CONCERN WILL BE THAT ANY
FIRE THAT STARTS MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. THOSE WHO ARE
DOING ANYTHING THAT COULD GENERATE SPARKS, INCLUDING YARD WORK,
FARMING, TOWING TRAILERS, OR OTHER ACTIVITIES SHOULD DO EVERYTHING
POSSIBLE TO PREVENT A SPARK WHILE TRAVELING AND/OR RECREATING
OUTDOORS.
MARGINAL TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL, THOUGH LESSER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES GIVE LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT THE MOMENT. LUDWIG/WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 98 66 102 62 / 0 0 10 20
CTB 92 60 97 59 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 97 63 99 60 / 0 0 40 30
BZN 96 61 97 60 / 0 10 60 40
WYS 88 59 86 57 / 0 30 20 20
DLN 93 59 93 56 / 0 20 40 30
HVR 100 65 105 64 / 0 0 0 30
LWT 94 61 98 61 / 0 0 50 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN
MADISON BELOW 6000FT-CANYON FERRY AREA-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN
TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-
EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-
HELENA VALLEY-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-
MISSOURI HEADWATERS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS
COUNTIES-EASTERN GLACIER/TOOLE/CENTRAL/EASTERN PONDERA/LIBERTY-
HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES-LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST ROCKY
MOUNTAIN DISTRICT-ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY
AND JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
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