384
FXUS65 KTFX 041036
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
436 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
-IT REMAINS COOL TODAY WITH A RAPID WARM UP TO END THE WORK WEEK.
-WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-IT WILL BE DRY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1247 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY THERE IS ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A FEW
DEGREES WITH DRY WEATHER. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP SOME MORE WITH DRY WEATHER.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK UP TO WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
FURTHER AND BE WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO
THE LOW TEENS AS WELL. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
& SCENARIOS SECTION. ON SATURDAY UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
KEEP WARM BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATES OVER THE AREA. DUE TO
STRONG MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS LINGERING OVER THE AREA IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF
30 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THERE IS A 30 - 50% CHANCE FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20% OR LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR
GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CURRENTLY
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BREAKDOWN. THIS AFFECTS BOTH HOW LOW THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY GETS AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS.
ON FRIDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 95 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
PLANS EAST OF I-15. -IG
AVIATION
04/12Z TAF PERIOD
REGIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED REDUCTION TO
VISIBILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REDUCTION BEING TO SUB-VFR LEVELS WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TODAY UNDER
JUST A FEW CLOUDS.
FOR KGTF: NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL YIELD A PROBABILITY FOR A 15 KT
CROSS WIND OF ESSENTIALLY ZERO. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 77 49 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 75 47 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 78 48 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 78 46 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 75 35 80 38 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 76 45 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 79 48 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 72 46 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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