328
FXUS65 KTFX 071115
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS BEGINS SUNDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 245 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL MT
THIS MORNING BENEATH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EXITS BY MID-DAY WITH
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING, BUT THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SURFACE
HEATING AND AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY SHIFTS INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE TRACKING
A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING, FOCUSING A GRATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MT PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF GREAT FALLS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WESTERN US LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY. WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS CANADA NEXT WEEK COULD BRING SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES BUT ONLY MINOR COOLING. HOENISCH
AVIATION
07/12Z TAF PERIOD
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
IN THE VICINITY OF KGTF, KLWT, KHLN AND KBZN THROUGH AROUND 16Z
WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING RISK OF
ISOLATED LIGHTNING. CLOUDS DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING WITH SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING AND DRYING DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTY PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS NEAR ANY SHOWERS. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 68 43 74 50 / 60 30 10 10
CTB 68 40 73 45 / 20 20 20 30
HLN 68 41 75 47 / 40 20 0 0
BZN 68 38 72 41 / 20 10 0 0
WYS 64 31 68 36 / 10 0 0 10
DLN 70 38 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 73 39 78 44 / 30 10 10 40
LWT 64 38 70 44 / 60 30 10 70
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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