790
FXUS65 KTFX 070247
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
847 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY, WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
- IT TURNS COOLER FOR FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN
HIGHER VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MT.
- IT IS LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SO FAR, LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN VERY ISOLATED AND INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS BELOW CLOUD-BASES
ARE KEEPING PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIGHT. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS PER THE HREF MODEL, BUT SOME LARGE
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 3 PM TO 11 PM THU.
ON FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITS THE AREA, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FOR A SHORT TIME. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES, WHERE RAINFALL COULD
EXCEED A HALF INCH ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY, WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EVEN THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT/SUN IN THE HAVRE/HARLEM AREAS, THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY PRECIP
IS QUITE LOW. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE HREF MODEL CONTINUES TO PROG A FEW STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS, BUT OVERALL, THESE HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING CELLS
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED. BRUSDA
AVIATION
07/00Z TAF PERIOD
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
AS THESE SHOWERS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH KLWT AND KHVR POTENTIALLY SEEING A
THUNDERSTORM AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOENISCH
-WILSON
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 57 78 51 69 / 30 50 50 40
CTB 55 70 49 64 / 20 20 30 50
HLN 57 76 49 71 / 30 70 60 30
BZN 52 82 46 73 / 20 60 80 20
WYS 42 76 38 68 / 10 20 40 20
DLN 50 78 42 71 / 20 50 40 10
HVR 58 80 53 70 / 40 30 40 60
LWT 53 76 46 66 / 40 60 80 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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