562
FXUS65 KTFX 241735
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 512 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ANTI-CYCLONICLY CURVED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT SUNNY, WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MANY AREAS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT REACHING THE UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC, MOVING ONSHORE TOMORROW,
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH AS GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
IS FAIRLY LIMITED, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN GLACIER NP WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION
(UP TO 1") POSSIBLE OVER LOGAN PASS AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000FT. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE LITTLE OR NO MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS FROM NW MT INTO AB FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 20F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES TRACKING INTO
THE WESTERN US. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES, THOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH THESE FEATURES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WINDS
IF/WHERE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING. WHILE CONVECTION WOULD LOCALLY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH, STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MTN FRONT THROUGH EASTERN GLACIER AND WESTERN TOOLE COUNTIES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY FOR
GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH HAS INCREASED TO ABOVE 70% ACROSS EASTERN
GLACIER COUNTY INCLUDING THE CUT BANK AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA JUST
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO AB. HOENISCH
AVIATION
24/18Z TAF PERIOD.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. ESH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 84 57 87 50 / 0 0 0 20
CTB 78 49 82 44 / 0 0 0 20
HLN 82 50 84 46 / 0 0 0 20
BZN 79 45 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 70 34 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 77 44 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 83 56 89 49 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 82 53 84 47 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
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