227
FXUS65 KTFX 060012
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
512 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW/RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH MILD AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNING.
- A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A FEW OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SNOW.
UPDATE
SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY AND THE LITTLE BELTS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW LOOKS TO PRIMARILY ONLY ACCUMULATE
ON GRASSY SURFACES. HOWEVER, ANY ROADS THAT ARE WET TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA WILL LIKELY FREEZE OVER
THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS. FOR THE UPDATE, POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WERE INCREASED
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. QPF WAS ALSO INCREASED
ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. -IG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 450 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE/700MB FRONT
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS
AFTERNOON HAS LEAD TO MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN ON NON
PAVEMENT SURFACES DESPITE MODERATE SNOW RATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWER THAN MODELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH HAD
LEAD TO LOWER IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM OVERALL SINCE THE HIGHER SUN
ANGLE HAS WARMED UP THE GROUND FOR LESS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SOUTHWEST MT CAN EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY ON NON PAVEMENT SURFACES. BY THE
EVENING, THE MAIN LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL PULL AWAY.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
COLDER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW INSTABILITY IN NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WILL ALSO BRING THE LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO MIX IN
WITH A HEAVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING.
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
STARTING ON SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GREAT BASIN
REGION, WHILE A LOW DEEPENS FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN A WINDY PERIOD
FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER 700MB WINDS ARRIVE SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG CHINOOK WINDS WILL BRING
BACK MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WARM, WINDY, AND
DRIER CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BRINGS A CONCERN FOR
ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE RISK. LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, A CANADIAN FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THE
FRONT WILL HELP CUT THE STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE ZONAL, WITH A FEW WAVES OF
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEEK
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WITH TEMPERATURES OSCILLATING THROUGH THE WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING:
THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH GALLATIN AND
FERGUS COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT. THEY CAN CONTINUE TO SEE THIS
WIDESPREAD WET SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAD MADE SNOW STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOUTHWEST MT CAN STILL SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE PEAKS THROUGH THE EVENING. SINCE
IMPACTS TO ROADS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, I'VE
DECIDED TO LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 3PM MST.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S/TEENS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANY WET PAVEMENTS TO
FREEZE AND BECOME SLICK.
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO BE
CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, EXTENDING OUT
TO THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR/US 87. THERE'S A GREATER THAN 60%
CHANCE FOR 75 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
FOOTHILLS. PROBABILITIES DID DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
SINCE YESTERDAY.THERE IS UP TO A 40-70% CHANCE FOR 58 MPH WIND
GUSTS. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCHES REMAIN ON TRACK.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAPPEN SUNDAY, AS STRONGER 700MB WINDS
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRONT AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING IN THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF
WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD MUCH
FARTHER ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
FOOTHILLS, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 80MPH. THE
PROBABILITY FOR 90MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED AS WELL OVER THE
PAST DAY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION, THERE'S A 40-80% CHANCE
FOR 58MPH WIND GUSTS NORTH OF I-90. -WILSON
AVIATION
06/00Z TAF PERIOD
SNOW AFFECTING SW MT WITH WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AT KBZN AND KEKS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
MVFR LIKELY THERE AFTER 06Z, THOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. FURTHER NORTH,
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT TERMINALS, PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL ALSO AFFECT KHVR AND KLWT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS
THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BUT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOENISCH
FIRE WEATHER
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR GRASSLAND AREAS
THIS WEEKEND. PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS, GUSTING OVER 50 MPH
AT TIMES, COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S MAY CREATE
DIFFICULTIES TO CONTAIN ANY EXISTING OR NEW FIRE STARTS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 28 47 32 57 / 70 10 0 0
CTB 23 46 31 52 / 60 0 0 10
HLN 27 45 29 53 / 70 20 10 20
BZN 24 44 22 51 / 90 30 10 10
WYS 16 37 13 36 / 80 20 10 30
DLN 21 41 23 48 / 30 0 0 0
HVR 22 50 28 61 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 22 43 26 54 / 40 10 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH
GAP-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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