600
FXUS65 KTFX 080812
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
212 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- TRENDING HOTTER TOWARD THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LOOKING HOTTEST.
DISCUSSION
METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN BC
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY EMERGING
INTO NORTHWESTERN AB BY THE EVENING. FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL LARGELY BE ZONAL, BUT BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC IN NATURE
GIVEN THE DISTURBANCE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WEAKLY CYCLONIC
NATURE OF THE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
INCREASING SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COMBINE WITH RESPECTABLE
INSTABILITY WILL YIELD A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY
EXITS EASTWARD LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EASTWARD INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS SW MT WILL YIELD A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND INTERIOR WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RISING WELL INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS THIS WEEKEND WILL POSE
IMPACTS TO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS. PLAN FOR PLENTY OF HYDRATION
AND REST BREAKS IF PLANNING TO BE OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE EASTWARD EVER SO
SLIGHTLY, WHICH LOOKS TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. -AM
UNCERTAINTY:
THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY TODAY LOOKS TO BE JUST HOW STRONG
FORCING WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS OF NOW THE MAIN WAVE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION, WHICH WOULD NOT REQUIRE TOO MUCH FORCING TO RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHOULD THIS FORCING BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND VICE VERSA.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND, THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH JUST HOW HOT IT GETS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
OF NOW THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 100F ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS. -AM
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BR/FG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE WESTWARD, LIKELY AFFECTING KHVR AND
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCTB. AFTER A DRY MORNING, A FEW TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS, STARING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 92 57 88 56 / 20 20 0 0
CTB 86 55 82 54 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 89 57 87 56 / 30 20 0 0
BZN 87 53 87 54 / 20 20 0 0
WYS 83 46 83 46 / 20 20 0 0
DLN 85 52 85 52 / 20 20 0 0
HVR 91 57 87 56 / 10 20 0 0
LWT 86 54 83 53 / 10 40 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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