341
FXUS65 KTFX 151907
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
107 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.
- SOME STORMS CAN PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A CLOSED LOW STATIONED OVER THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT,
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 30-50KTS AND CAPE REACHING
1,000 J/KG OR HIGHER. TODAY'S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED, AND CONCENTRATED TO CENTRAL MT AND THE MONTANA AND
CANADA BORDER. THURSDAY HAS BETTER FORCING WITH A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN I-90 TO HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL FORCING, BUT SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ANOMALOUS PWATS REACHING MORE THAN AN INCH WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE HORSE GULCH BURN SCAR AND URBAN
AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AS A RESULT FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO START ISOLATED
BEFORE CONGEALING INTO A MORE STRUCTURED CLUSTER/LINE.
ON SUNDAY, THIS CLOSE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, WHICH
HELPS PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
DRIER DAY, WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS REACHING INTO THE 90S.
NEXT WEEK, THIS "DIRTY RIDGE" PATTERN LOOKS TO BE PERSISTENT
AGAIN, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AGAIN FROM SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNING. HOWEVER, MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK TO
BE AS HIGH THAN THIS WEEK. -WILSON
AVIATION
15/18Z TAF PERIOD
PATCHY LOW CLOUD COVER NEAR THE KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
1518/1618 TAF PERIOD HERE AND AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE, WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH 00-06Z FRIDAY AND LEAD TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT
TIMES. MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING A GIVEN
TERMINAL WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, ALONG WITH REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/LOW-VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 59 89 60 94 / 20 20 30 20
CTB 56 84 58 89 / 20 20 30 20
HLN 62 90 63 93 / 10 30 40 50
BZN 56 90 58 93 / 20 20 30 50
WYS 48 87 50 87 / 20 20 30 50
DLN 55 88 56 89 / 20 20 20 40
HVR 58 89 61 95 / 30 0 20 10
LWT 54 84 55 89 / 40 30 30 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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