451
FXUS65 KTFX 141928
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
128 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS SET UP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SATURDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, KEEPING
SUBSIDENCE AT THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CONTINUED
MELTING SNOWPACK BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS. A DRY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TODAY OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT HAS BROUGHT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THIS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT HEADING INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG 700MB JET SETS UP ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COINCIDING WITH PEAK DAY
TIME MIXING, WILL MIX THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE CORE
OF THE JET DON'T EXTEND MUCH EAST THAN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, SO
THE PLAINS WILL SEE LESSER WIND SPEEDS. THE INCREASED CHINOOK WINDS
ALSO HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLES HINT AT A TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF
TROUGHING/TIMING STILL VARIES GREATLY SO DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. THOUGH, THE FORECAST IS POINTING TOWARDS A COOL DOWN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE 700MB WINDS PEAKING AT 60-
75 KTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST THESE CORE WINDS EXTEND, WITH SOME
MODELS EXTENDING IT TOWARD THE CUT BANK TO SWEET GRASS HILLS AREA
WHILE SOME KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS OF
THE ROCKY'S. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. IF THE PEAK MID
LEVEL JET ARRIVES IN THE MID AFTERNOOON THEN THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS. SOME MODELS TREND IT LATER IN THE
EVENING, WHICH WILL LOWER THE CHANCES OF THESE WINDS MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 40% CHANCE FOR 58 MPH WIND GUSTS AT CUT
BANK AND A 30-60% CHANCE FOR 75 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT FOOTHILLS. -WILSON
AVIATION
14/18Z TAF PERIOD
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS THROUGH 15/00Z FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT TONIGHT. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS NEAR KEKS AND KWYS THROUGH AROUND
14/21Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE FEW TO SCATTERED LOW VFR OR MVFR
CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
MOSTLY NEAR AREAS OF TERRAIN BETWEEN 15/06 AND 15/18Z. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 31 48 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 26 45 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 30 50 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 28 47 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 19 52 17 56 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 26 46 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 31 49 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 30 43 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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