123
FXUS65 KTFX 010534
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1034 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WARM THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A VERY SLIGHT COOLDOWN
ON MONDAY.
- IT WILL BE WINDY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- OUTSIDE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 828 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026/
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT. JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS FOR POPS/CLOUDS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
THE ADJACENT PLAINS. OVERALL, THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS MUCH OF
THE AREA BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, THUS NO WIND STATEMENTS
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 828 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IT WILL
BRING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA IN THE MORNING BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (STILL WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES).
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORD
HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ON FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FOR THE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THERE IS AROUND A 30 -
70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THERE IS UP TO A 40 - 50% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE PLAINS WEST OF I-15 AND THE
WIND PRONE AREAS OF JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. AS A RESULT OF THE LOW
PROBABILITIES AND ISOLATED NATURE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN A MOUNTAIN WAVE
BRINGING DOWN THE STRONGER GUSTS A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS. FOR THE
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE IS A 30 - 70% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
ON SUNDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 60 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS THE MONTANA
HIGHWAY 200/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR, THE HELENA VALLEY, AND
GALLATIN VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 40 - 80% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 65 DEGREES OR GREATER FROM SHELBY TO GREAT FALLS
TO LEWISTOWN. ON THURSDAY FROM SHELBY TO GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN
THERE IS A 60 - 90% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 65 DEGREES OR
GREATER. ON THURSDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 65 DEGREES OR GREATER IN THE GALLATIN VALLEY AND
AND DILLON AREA. ON THURSDAY FROM SHELBY TO GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
DEGREES OR GREATER. -IG
THE TABLE BELOW REFLECTS THE PROBABLY FOR BREAKING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SELECT CITIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. -IG/MOLDAN
LOCATION WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY
CUT BANK 75% BREAKING 63 DEGREES | 57% BREAKING 65 DEGREES
HAVRE 37% BREAKING 61 DEGREES | 69% BREAKING 58 DEGREES
GREAT FALLS 78% BREAKING 62 DEGREES | 86% BREAKING 62 DEGREES
LEWISTOWN 74% BREAKING 62 DEGREES | 87% BREAKING 60 DEGREES
HELENA 47% BREAKING 61 DEGREES | 43% BREAKING 63 DEGREES
BOZEMAN 48% BREAKING 62 DEGREES | 58% BREAKING 65 DEGREES
DILLON 84% BREAKING 57 DEGREES | 93% BREAKING 57 DEGREES
AVIATION
01/06Z TAF PERIOD
DESPITE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE 0106/0206 TAF PERIOD.
WITH THAT BEING SAID EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEYOND 00Z MONDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE KCTB AND
KGTF TERMINALS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. - MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 36 59 37 53 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 31 54 35 48 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 31 53 32 49 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 28 52 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 10 39 10 36 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 28 52 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 25 48 30 49 / 0 0 10 10
LWT 31 56 33 48 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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