672
FXUS65 KTFX 150711
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1211 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
THE ISLAND RANGES OF CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TRANSITION TO A COLDER
AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN BETWEEN A SPLIT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST AND DEEPER TROUGH
SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE OFFSHORE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT SOME PERIODS OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION, WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIP/ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MT, MAINLY OVER RIDGETOPS AND VALLEYS WITH N-S ALIGNMENT,
WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION IN OUR OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS ON
TUESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DEEPENS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF AK. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/SNOW. COOLING ALOFT ARRIVES INITIALLY
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE A LOWER LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
SURGES SOUTH FROM AB INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. COLDER (NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL) TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW SUNDAY:
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 2
INCHES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL
WHETHER THESE SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER AT THE
SURFACE. THUS ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE ISLAND RANGES OF CENTRAL
MONTANA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW IN THE LITTLE BELTS AND ALONG KINGS
HILL PASS. RIGHT NOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY-
LEVEL CRITERIA BUT FOLKS TRAVELING IN THE AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE REMAINED MORE OR LESS THE
SAME COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW
TOTALS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTY.
RIGHT NOW, THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED ABOVE PASS LEVEL
WITH MACDONALD PASS AND ROGERS PASS HAVING ONLY A 30-40%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES.
ONE OF THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IF IT SLOWS DOWN AT ALL THEN
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA. BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT INTO THE
MODELS AS TO HOW EXACTLY THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT.
THE WILD CARD WITH THIS EVENT IS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER YOU CAN EITHER GET NO SNOW OR 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW THE BULK OF THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ALONG THE HI-LINE AND A 40-50%
CHANCE FOR 4+ INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GREAT
FALLS AND LEWISTOWN. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A VERY REASONABLE
OUTPUT AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR.
ULTIMATELY EVERYTHING LOOKS ADVISORY-LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND THERE
IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING ENOUGH
SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER ALTHOUGH THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IS NOT AS DRASTIC. BETWEEN THE COLDER AIRMASS COMING DOWN AND THE
ADDITIONAL COOLING DUE TO SNOWPACK, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-
ZERO LOWS ACROSS THE HI-LINE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE. -THOR
AVIATION
15/06Z TAF PERIOD
AFTER CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL BRING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER,
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT BETWEEN 15/12 AND 15/18Z, BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. - RCG/LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 34 50 32 / 10 20 40 10
CTB 46 26 45 23 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 52 30 51 28 / 0 30 50 20
BZN 51 29 53 28 / 0 10 10 30
WYS 36 18 39 18 / 10 10 20 20
DLN 48 31 52 26 / 0 10 10 10
HVR 54 28 47 26 / 0 20 20 20
LWT 43 30 47 28 / 0 10 30 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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