416  
FXUS65 KTFX 282145  
AFDTFX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT  
245 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED  
SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM  
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO  
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AS OF 2PM, CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR SHOW ISOLATED SNOW  
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THAT MAY QUICKLY BRING A REDUCTION  
IN VISIBILITY AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DRIER  
AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
MOVES OUT.  
 
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO FALL THROUGH THE REST OF  
THIS EVENING, REACHING TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE ROCKY  
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. CLOUD  
COVERAGE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE  
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AS PROBABILITIES ARE 80 TO 97  
PERCENT.  
 
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A WEAK SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CAN OCCUR IN  
SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ESPECIALLY ALONG PASSES ON THE MT/ID BORDER.  
TREATED ROADWAYS CAN RE-COVER WITH SNOW AND MAKE DRIVING  
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS, DRIVE WITH CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING BLOWING  
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN IN  
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0 ACROSS THE HIGH  
PLAINS.  
 
OUR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY, WHEN OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THAT HAS A PROBABILITY OF  
10 TO 30 PERCENT OF BRINGING MODERATE IMPACTS SUCH AS SNOWFALL  
RATES THAT CAN IMPACT DRIVING CONDITIONS. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE  
DRIVING. AS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO  
DEVELOP, OUR CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BUT AT THIS  
TIME IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS, END TIMING, AND LOCATIONS AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY  
IN ENSEMBLE MODELS OF LOCATION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WE HEAD INTO A  
WEATHER PATTERN AFTERWARDS OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE  
WEEKEND. WEBB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
1035 AM MST MON NOV 28 2022 (28/18Z TAF PERIOD)  
 
KGTF AND KLWT CONTINUES TO SEE ISOLATED SNOWFALL THROUGH AT LEAST  
21Z TODAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH THESE BANDS OF SNOW. AN  
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR KHLN AND KBZN THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN ANY QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW.  
ANOTHER QUICK BURST OF SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL MONTANA AND SW MT IS  
EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN FOR  
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN  
THE MORNING HOURS EVERYWHERE. WEBB  
 
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION WEATHER  
AND HAZARD INFORMATION.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GTF 2 11 -1 26 / 20 10 0 0  
CTB -1 8 -5 16 / 10 10 0 20  
HLN 1 11 1 25 / 20 10 0 0  
BZN -4 8 -3 24 / 20 10 0 0  
WYS -14 13 -2 22 / 20 10 20 50  
DLN -4 10 1 23 / 30 0 0 20  
HVR 4 12 -5 21 / 10 0 0 0  
LWT -1 9 -5 26 / 20 10 0 0  
 

 
   
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS  
 
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