480
FXUS65 KTFX 240602
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1202 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF IN SOME AREAS.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
KEEPING MONTANA HOT FOR AT LEAST A WHILE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING. THOSE RECREATING OR
SPENDING AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD PREPARE TO
TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS, STAY HYDRATED, AND BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
ANY SYMPTOMS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE A CONCERN THAT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE ALREADY PRESENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
WHILE THE WORST OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER AFTER SUNDAY,
IT MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE A TRUE COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS LONG-
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COULD PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THOSE WHO ARE MOST SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR COMPOUNDING HEAT STRESS,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING OR UNABLE TO FIND
A COOL LOCATION TO RECOVER. -THOR
AVIATION
24/06Z TAF PERIOD
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
MONTANA, WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY; GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90 AND SOUTH OF MONTANA HWY 200. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KTS; HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED GUST TO 50KTS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORM. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 2406/2506 TAF PERIOD, BUT
SMOKE/HAZE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRE WILL AFFECT SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
UPON ASCENT/DESCENT AT TIMES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. - MOLDAN
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH VALUES
BELOW 15%, FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, AND HOT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE CONCERN WILL BE THAT ANY FIRE THAT STARTS
MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. FOLKS SHOULD DO EVERYTHING
POSSIBLE TO PREVENT A SPARK WHILE TRAVELING AND/OR RECREATING
OUTDOORS.
MARGINAL TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS
TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 96 64 98 63 / 20 20 0 0
CTB 93 61 91 58 / 20 20 0 0
HLN 94 63 97 63 / 20 20 20 0
BZN 90 60 97 60 / 20 20 20 20
WYS 80 50 87 51 / 40 30 20 20
DLN 87 57 93 57 / 20 20 20 20
HVR 99 64 101 62 / 20 20 0 0
LWT 90 61 94 61 / 20 20 0 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-
CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES-EASTERN
GLACIER/TOOLE/CENTRAL/EASTERN PONDERA/LIBERTY-HILL AND BLAINE
COUNTIES-LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST ROCKY MOUNTAIN DISTRICT-
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD
AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-CANYON FERRY AREA-EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF
THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY
VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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