157
FXUS65 KTFX 081125
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL MT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
- IT'LL BE WARM AND DRY SUNDAY, AND BREEZY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1137 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THESE SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, DRY AND WARM WEATHER SETTLE IN FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MT FRIDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT GOT SOME MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AND
WHERE BETTER CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY TO NORTH-CENTRAL MT.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AT TIMES,
PARTICULAR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. MODELS START TO
DIVERGE BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGING AND WARM WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION, AND KEEPS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHWEST MT. THE EUROPEAN MODELS HAS A BETTER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MID
WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BROADER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TODAY'S SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE THE TYPICAL
SPRING TIME SHOWERS. AREAS THAT GET A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS CAN
GET 0.05" TO 0.10" OF MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50 MPH.
THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS A
MID-LEVEL JET IN. SO FAR THE STRENGTH OF THIS JET AND THE TIMING
BEING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LESSENS THE CONCERN FOR HIGH
WINDS AT THIS TIME. -WILSON
AVIATION
08/12Z TAF PERIOD
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER TODAY, GENERALLY AFTER 08/20Z. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD; HOWEVER, CONTINUED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL INCREASE LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL MT HEADING
TOWARDS 09/12Z. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 76 50 65 42 / 0 30 30 0
CTB 74 46 64 41 / 0 50 40 0
HLN 76 46 69 41 / 0 20 0 0
BZN 73 41 67 37 / 0 20 0 0
WYS 68 35 62 30 / 0 10 0 0
DLN 72 40 68 38 / 0 10 0 0
HVR 79 46 67 39 / 0 70 40 0
LWT 72 44 58 37 / 0 70 70 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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