826
FXUS65 KTFX 151925
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
125 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY.
- PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW HEADING TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
RIDGING ALOFT MIGRATES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRINGS
CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY AM FOG
OVER THE WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT.
H500 HEIGHTS PEAK ABOVE 580 DM AND WARMS HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL ALSO
BRING GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN H700 FLOW INCREASES TO THE 50 TO 70
KT RANGE IN ADVANCE OF A FAST APPROACHING TROUGH TRAVELING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. FORECAST AFTERNOON RH'S WERE
LOWERED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS, THOUGH FIRE WEATHER DOWN
A MORE RELAXED ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS. A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW THEN LOOKS
TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE HEADING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN AREA BY
MI- WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ROUGHLY NEAR AVERAGE.
AT LEAST HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITES HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW, THIS NEW TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING
SHEARING AND SPLITTING, WHICH DECREASES FORECAST POSITION AND
TIMING CONFIDENCE. OVERALL, THERE'S A GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED INSTANCES OF RAIN AND MOSTLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT. THE WINDIEST
PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES AND DIURNAL MIXING TRANSFERS SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE. AREAS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF
I15 LOOK TO SEE ROUTINE GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND HAVE A 50 TO 80%
CHANCE (HIGHEST FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT) FOR
INSTANTANEOUS GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. PLAINS LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF
I15 WILL GENERALLY SEE WINDS GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 50 MPH RANGE,
MOST FREQUENTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WEST OF I15
AND WILL INCLUDE DIFFICULT CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION OVER
PORTIONS OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AND NEIGHBORING AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR THOSE OPERATING
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR PULLING LIGHT WEIGHT TRAILERS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 89 FROM CHOUTEAU TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
INHERITED HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS VALID AND WAS LEFT AS IS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. - RCG
AVIATION
15/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, DECREASING WINDS AT KHVR AND KLWT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP AT KGTF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 35 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 27 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 29 61 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 25 59 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 17 55 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 26 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 27 67 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 26 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page