019
FXUS65 KTFX 081456
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
856 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY KICKING OFF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW OF THOSE STORMS MAY
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
- TURNING COOLER AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL
AB. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING
AS WELL WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
MUCH OF GLACIER COUNTY, WHERE GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND
40-45 MPH AT CUT BANK WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TOUGH AND WEAK
FRONTAL FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
AND A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT AND
AS FAR NORTH AS THE LITTLE BELTS AND SNOWIES IN CENTRAL MT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WILL RESULT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY,
HOWEVER, A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A WEAK
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ASIDE FROM THESE STRAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS, WITH
JUST A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, OUR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE
FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY THANKS TO INCREASED MOISTURE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE WARMTH. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS WARM ON SUNDAY THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE STORMS AS WELL.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL
AND UNSETTLED SIDE, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CORE OF THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ON TUESDAY, AS IT APPEARS THAT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE PASSAGE OF THE CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON
TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL MODERATION AND
DRYING, THOUGH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORMS: FOR SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM (AROUND
50%) IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. WHILE A
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH OR SO, SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, MAKES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY
ALLOW THE STORMS TO BE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS,
BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS TEND TO FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY IN THE MORNING, WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE STRENGTH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE (30% OR SO) THAT
THE FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY, WHICH WOULD GIVE
THE STRONGER STORMS A BETTER CHANCE TO OCCUR. LUDWIG.
AVIATION
08/12Z TAF
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
SAVE FOR THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AROUND KEKS,
KBZN, AND KWYS. FURTHER NORTH, WATCH FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS, PARTICULARLY AT KCTB WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE
EXPECTED. LUDWIG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 75 41 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 70 36 76 46 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 77 45 81 50 / 10 10 0 0
BZN 75 40 78 45 / 30 30 0 0
WYS 67 32 71 33 / 40 30 0 0
DLN 72 40 77 46 / 30 20 0 0
HVR 79 38 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 74 42 75 52 / 30 20 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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