767
FXUS65 KTFX 111556
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR DAILY RECORDS.
- HEAT, DRYNESS AND AFTERNOON BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- NOT AS HOT NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT. ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD SOME
CLOUDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT THAT STILL REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHT'S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. SHOULD HAVE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN A FEW AREAS,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100'S. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 455 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN US PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING SEVERAL DAYS OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT TO THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR DAILY
RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
EAST OF THE AREA A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON MIXING TAPPING INTO THIS FOR BREEZY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN BC WILL COMPRESS THE THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
BEGINS TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
SUNDAY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THE HOTTEST
DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND 700MB TEMPS PEAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION
BUT INCREASED CLOUD-COVER ON MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD, MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ROBUST PLUME OF MONSOON-RELATED
MOISTURE TO BEGIN CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING AN INCREASED
RISK FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD-
COVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWATS) WELL IN EXCESS OF 1.00" ARE
SUPPORTED BY MOST MODELS/ENSEMBLES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
BELOW ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100F THIS WEEKEND:
SAT 7/11 SUN 7/12
GREAT FALLS 50% 50%
BOZEMAN 5% 75%
HELENA 50% 50%
HAVRE 75% 70%
CUT BANK 0% 0%
LEWISTOWN 10% 80%
DILLON 0% 20%
AVIATION
11/12Z TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE KHVR VICINITY EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS BECOME BREEZY WITH
A FEW 20-25KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE AND
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOENISCH
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND ARE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT
WHERE DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE MAINLY BELOW 30% TODAY BUT INCREASE TO
50% OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, INCLUDING
AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE VALLEYS OF BROADWATER AND MEAGHER COUNTIES.
THE HOT-DRY-WINDY INDEX IS PROJECTED TO EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.
HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 100 61 101 63 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 91 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 100 63 100 65 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 98 60 103 60 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 91 48 97 50 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 95 55 99 58 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 102 62 102 63 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 98 59 104 59 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLAINE-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF THE
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHERN
BLAINE COUNTY-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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