232
FXUS65 KTFX 061106
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
506 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
- REDUCED AIR QUALITY AT TIMES FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 103 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT FLATTEN AS IT
DOES SO. THE END RESULT IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO TREND WARMER. GIVEN THE FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT LOWER OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, BUT STILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM.
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MORE OR LESS PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK,
YIELDING LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH STILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGE. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS TODAY:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN
SOME BREEZY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS, LARGELY NEAR AND EAST OF US-87.
THE PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH OVER THE PLAINS IS LESS
THAN 10%, HOWEVER.
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:
A FEW WEAK WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW BEGIN SHOWING
UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE WILDLY
INCONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN AND BETWEEN GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HENCE,
THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS REMAINS QUITE LOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LARGELY 10% OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. -AM
AVIATION
07/12Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF SMOKE REDUCING BOTH SURFACE AND
SLANT-RANGE VISIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH SURFACE SMOKE OUT THROUGH
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE SMOKE
ON THE PLAINS, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA VALLEYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR KGTF: A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT ARRIVING AROUND 16Z OR SO WILL
RESULT IN A FEW HOUR STRETCH OF CROSS-WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 15
KTS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE EARLY AFTERNOON. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 88 52 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 81 48 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 91 55 95 58 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 92 52 95 55 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 86 43 89 45 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 90 52 93 54 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 88 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 84 52 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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