401
FXUS65 KTFX 140705
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
STARTING NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUING PERIODS
OF SNOWFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT PASS LEVEL AND HEAVIER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE PEAKS.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEFORE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BRINGING DAILY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES WITH MOST OF THE IMPACTFUL
SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE PASS LEVEL. THE LATEST HREF RUN HAS MARIAS
PASS SITTING AT AROUND A 60% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES AND
30% CHANCE AT GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF 36 HOURS.
WHEN LOOKING AT SNOWFALL RATES, THERE IS NO PERIOD WHERE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG MARIAS PASS SO, IN GENERAL,
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SLOWLY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY TYPICAL WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS. THUS WHEN CONSIDERING SNOWFALL RATES AND TOTAL
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, AND THE FACT THAT THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOW
WILL OCCUR WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO FOREGO
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID,
FOLKS TRAVELING IN THE AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR CHANGING ROAD
CONDITIONS AND ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS ACCORDINGLY.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TO HOW NEXT WEEK WILL
PLAY OUT BUT INCREASINGLY IT IS LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY WILL CARRY
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. SNOW TOTALS
UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS EXPECTED THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CARRY THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS. BUT THERE IS
A CONSTANT SHIFTING WITH EVERY MODEL RUN AS TO WHICH HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SO FOR NOW
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN POINT EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT OR IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. BUT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. -THOR
AVIATION
14/00Z TAF PERIOD
MOIST, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE 1400/1500 TAF PERIOD; WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE KCTB AND KGTF TERMINALS BEYOND 18Z.
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN LEE OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. -
MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 34 54 33 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 46 27 49 25 / 0 0 10 0
HLN 47 26 50 30 / 0 0 10 20
BZN 46 23 49 30 / 0 0 0 10
WYS 36 16 36 18 / 10 0 10 10
DLN 46 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 51 28 54 28 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 43 26 47 29 / 0 0 0 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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