280
FXUS65 KTFX 250510
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW PRIMARILY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
- SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK IT WILL BE DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 841 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026/
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK RIGHT NOW. THIS LIGHT SNOW
BAND HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2" OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT
TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE LOW, WHICH IS ATTRIBUTING TO
THE LOW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND UPPER AIR SUPPORT
TO CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT STEADY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT, PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH ONLY UP TO AN INCH,
MAYBE 2" IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SO FAR THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN ON TRACK. WITH SOUTHWEST MT FORECASTED TO
RECEIVE UP TO 1-2", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL, I AM NOT INCLINED TO EXPAND WINTER
PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
SHIFTING GEARS TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FARTHER NORTH IN
BLAINE COUNTY OVERNIGHT, NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE -25F
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
AREAS THAT DO REACH AT OR JUST BELOW -25F WIND CHILLS. HOWEVER,
THE ISOLATED NATURE AND BRIEF DURATION OF HITTING THOSE
TEMPERATURES LED ME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT. THOUGH WE WILL STILL MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. -WILSON
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 841 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW TO
MOUNTAIN ADJACENT AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS. OUTSIDE OF HILL AND NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTIES, THIS
AFTERNOON THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
THE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING
TO MONDAY MORNING (PRIMARILY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT).
ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY WEATHER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH A FEW PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES. THIS
WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
FOR THE SNOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, DUE
TO IT BEING A NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT MODELS ARE UNDER FORECASTING
THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND QPF. AS A RESULT QPF WAS BLENDED UPWARD
TOWARD THE 90TH PERCENTILE NBM. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE
SNOWFALL IS THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 70% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
PLAINS WEST OF I-15. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15. THE
ONLY UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH SNOWFALL THESE AREAS RECEIVE.
WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA
HAVE GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.
ANY OF THESE AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOW TODAY IN PARTICULAR THE LITTLE
BELTS AND BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN ALONG MONTANA HIGHWAY
200/US HIGHWAY 87 WILL HAVE ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY THERE IS AN EXTREMELY LOW
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS ANY LOCATION IN NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
AVIATION
25/06Z TAF PERIOD
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
25/09Z, SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THEREAFTER. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RISK
FOR BLOWING SNOW. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF -2 24 15 40 / 80 10 0 0
CTB -8 24 12 36 / 60 10 0 0
HLN 2 24 9 38 / 70 10 0 0
BZN 1 21 3 37 / 60 20 0 0
WYS -11 17 -9 23 / 40 20 0 0
DLN 3 26 8 37 / 20 10 0 0
HVR -12 16 1 30 / 30 0 0 0
LWT -7 18 5 37 / 80 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR FERGUS COUNTY
BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND
HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page