463
FXUS65 KTFX 251817
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1217 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WARM AND WINDY TODAY.
- A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BRING IN
COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MT BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 342 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE FIRST FALL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. EXPECT STRONG WEST WINDS, FALLING TEMPERATURES AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM BROWNING TO
ABOUT HAVRE THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA, THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOR
ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE CWA, BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE, THUS DO EXPECT SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE, INCLUDING
GLACIER PARK ON SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL THEN REMAIN DRY BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MT. EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE. OVERALL, MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH
AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY.
A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER MT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG
WINDS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE GFS/EC HAVE OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS, THUS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES IN THE WARNING
AREA THIS EVENING.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED
BETWEEN CUT BANK AND HAVRE THIS EVENING, AS THE STRONG WINDS MIX
DOWN WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH.
ANY IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO ROADWAYS ABOVE 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WHICH WILL MAINLY JUST BE THE GOING TO THE SUN ROAD, IN GLACIER
NATIONAL PARK. A SHORT WINTER STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS
EVENT. BRUSDA
AVIATION
25/18Z TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 25/22 AND 26/06Z. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY, STRONGEST ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KTS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE WINDS,
AT LEAST ON A TEMPORARY BASIS. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE SATURDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH DIURNAL MIXING WILL MAINTAIN 25 TO 35 KT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT AND
SMOKY/HAZY SKIES FROM PRESCRIBED BURNS BETWEEN LINCOLN AND HELENA
THIS AFTERNOON. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 88 49 64 39 / 0 20 0 0
CTB 83 43 57 33 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 85 43 66 41 / 0 10 0 0
BZN 81 42 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 70 32 59 33 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 79 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 89 48 66 36 / 0 10 0 0
LWT 84 45 67 37 / 0 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT SATURDAY
FOR EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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