298
FXUS65 KTFX 261758
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1058 AM MST FRI FEB 26 2021
..AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SPREAD
FURTHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PLAINS. A MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLDER AIRMASS FROM CANADA TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
THE MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN PUBLISHED. THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS
THE EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND WILL INCREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THIS AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED MOST, BUT LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CANADIAN
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT. THE EXPIRATION TIME FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED TO 28/04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MORE WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. RCG
AVIATION
1058 AM MST FRI FEB 26 2021 (26/18Z TAF PERIOD)
UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION FROM 26/20Z THROUGH 27/05Z, MOSTLY IMPACTING THE
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS (KBZN, KEKS, KHLN) WITH A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR/LIFR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY 27/08Z BUT MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH, BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING
AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RCG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 344 AM MST FRI FEB 26 2021/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO
SHIFT INLAND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SE ACROSS
IDAHO TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUHTHWEST MT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS OF SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A CANADIAN FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MT SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS SW MT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION BY
SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS SOME. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MT
AND BY MONDAY FOR SW MT, WHERE COLD AIR COULD HANG ON A BIT LONGER
IN THE VALLEYS. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A WEATHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 37 13 24 16 / 30 60 60 0
CTB 34 11 22 14 / 30 70 50 0
HLN 37 19 30 16 / 30 30 30 0
BZN 34 14 28 6 / 50 40 40 0
WYS 24 -1 23 -7 / 90 80 50 10
DLN 30 9 26 3 / 50 20 10 0
HVR 37 11 23 11 / 10 20 30 0
LWT 34 12 23 9 / 20 50 60 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST SATURDAY BEAVERHEAD...
BROADWATER...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...GALLATIN...
JEFFERSON...MADISON.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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