099
FXUS65 KTFX 040215
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
815 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, BUT COOL BACK BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.
UPDATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SHOWERS NORTH FROM
SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
AREA WILL MAKE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MILK RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT, FOG WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED. -WILSON
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 546 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FAST,
COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE
OVER/ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND RECENT PRECIPITATION MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE
MILK RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HIGH, FOG PRONE
VALLEYS IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS TIMEFRAME WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MONTANA HWY 200 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR, WITH
GENERALLY A 20-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ELSEWHERE. WHILE A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY, MOST
NOTABLY OVER FERGUS AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES, THE OVERALL EARLY
NATURE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AND PRELUDING CLOUDING CONDITIONS WILL
HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
TRANSIENT RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN
SETTLING IN ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY THANKS TO THE
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, BUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE BEARS PAW/LITTLE ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREAS. -
MOLDAN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA.
AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST, BUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS, EXCEPT ON SUNDAY, WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS: WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
TODAY, THE FORECAST MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE CWA DRY. HOWEVER, WITH
RECENT MOISTURE, THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT UNSTABLE WITH
ANY HEATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT, THUS KEPT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
SHELBY TO HARLEM.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BRUSDA
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY...
H700-500 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VALUES REACHING 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP
MIXING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT THE STRONG WINDS
TO THE SURFACE, MOST NOTABLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A DILLON, TO
ENNIS, TO BOZEMAN LINE WHERE ECMWF EFIS OF 0.6 TO 0.75 INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL WIND EVENTS. NBM5.0
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE IN EXCESS OF A
70% CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DILLON, TO ENNIS, TO BIG SKY LINE,
WITH A 20-50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 55 MPH ACROSS THESE SAME
AREAS. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 55 MPH ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE BENEATH
DECAYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST NOTABLY IN THE DILLON AND
ENNIS AREAS. - MOLDAN
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BRUSDA
AVIATION
03/18Z TAF PERIOD
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK
(10-20% CHANCE) OF SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS (KGTF, KCTB, KHVR, KLWT), THOUGH THIS RISK
SHOULD BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. LUDWIG
HYDROLOGY
THE LATEST HYDROGRAPHS SHOW RIVER LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF GLACIER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE TWO
MEDICINE RIVER AND BADGER CREEK. THUS IF NO NEW REPORTS OF
FLOODING ARE RECEIVED THIS MORNING, IT IS LIKELY THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GLACIER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON
TODAY, OR EVEN BE CANCELLED EARLY. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 48 70 42 78 / 40 50 10 0
CTB 45 71 41 73 / 20 20 0 0
HLN 52 72 42 80 / 40 30 0 0
BZN 45 71 39 80 / 30 40 0 0
WYS 37 67 33 72 / 10 20 20 0
DLN 45 72 40 80 / 20 20 0 0
HVR 42 72 45 78 / 10 60 20 0
LWT 43 66 40 77 / 50 70 20 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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