298  
FXUS65 KTFX 261758  
AFDTFX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT  
1058 AM MST FRI FEB 26 2021  
   
..AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SPREAD  
FURTHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PLAINS. A MORE  
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING AS A COLDER AIRMASS FROM CANADA TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO  
THE REGION. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN PUBLISHED. THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS  
THE EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF  
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND WILL INCREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY  
OVER THIS AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED MOST, BUT LOWER  
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY  
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CANADIAN  
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
CONTINUES ALOFT. THE EXPIRATION TIME FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS  
EXTENDED TO 28/04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MORE WINTER WEATHER  
PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE  
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. RCG  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
1058 AM MST FRI FEB 26 2021 (26/18Z TAF PERIOD)  
 
UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH  
THE REGION FROM 26/20Z THROUGH 27/05Z, MOSTLY IMPACTING THE  
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS (KBZN, KEKS, KHLN) WITH A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT  
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR/LIFR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWER  
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY 27/08Z BUT MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH, BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS  
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING  
AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MVFR/IFR/LIFR  
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RCG  
 
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION  
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
/ISSUED 344 AM MST FRI FEB 26 2021/  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO  
SHIFT INLAND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE  
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SE ACROSS  
IDAHO TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
SOUHTHWEST MT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY  
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS OF SNOW LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
A CANADIAN FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO  
NORTH-CENTRAL MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL  
FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONT EARLY  
THIS EVENING THEN A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATER  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE  
REGION BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL  
MT SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY  
ACROSS SW MT.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION BY  
SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK  
BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS SOME. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND  
QUICKLY BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MT  
AND BY MONDAY FOR SW MT, WHERE COLD AIR COULD HANG ON A BIT LONGER  
IN THE VALLEYS. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST  
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY  
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY  
SOME MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A WEATHER  
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOENISCH  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GTF 37 13 24 16 / 30 60 60 0  
CTB 34 11 22 14 / 30 70 50 0  
HLN 37 19 30 16 / 30 30 30 0  
BZN 34 14 28 6 / 50 40 40 0  
WYS 24 -1 23 -7 / 90 80 50 10  
DLN 30 9 26 3 / 50 20 10 0  
HVR 37 11 23 11 / 10 20 30 0  
LWT 34 12 23 9 / 20 50 60 0  
 

 
   
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST SATURDAY BEAVERHEAD...  
BROADWATER...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...GALLATIN...  
JEFFERSON...MADISON.  
 

 
 

 
 
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS  
 
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