995
FXUS65 KTFX 210331
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
831 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW AREAS OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
- STRONG WINDS IN THE CUT BANK AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
- BLOWING SNOW TO AFFECT CENTRAL MT ON TUESDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL MT AND THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT.
UPDATE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
SPILLS OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS SLUMPING SE FROM
BC/AB. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND SHIFT EAST OVERNGIHT WHILE MID LEVEL NW FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY SW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WARMING CONTINUES TO WORK
EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT, BUT AS OF 8PM COLDER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE HI-LINE FROM SHELBY EAST AND MUCH OF FERGUS
COUNTY, WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SOME TO REFLECT
THE DELAYED WARMING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND ENHANCEMENT AND
INCREASING CROSS-BARRIER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ON TRACK TO
EXTEND STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE
AND CENTRAL PONDERA COUNTIES, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT. 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MT TO THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND THE US-87 CORRIDOR FROM GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONCERN FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IMPACTS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE LITTLE
BELTS/SNOWIES AND MUCH OF JUDITH BASIN/FERGUS COUNTIES, WHERE A
LOOSE SNOWPACK IS IN PLACE AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES BEGIN
LATER TONIGHT AS GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 443 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A QUIET DAY TODAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
SOME AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MT DID NOT RECOVER TEMPERATURE WISE, AND
ARE STILL QUITE COLD. SOME PASSING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT HOW
COLD WE GET. OTHERWISE, DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
DIVIDE AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO ALREADY. EXPECT THE WARMING TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD.
AS THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS MOVE INTO THE STANFORD/LEWISTOWN AREAS
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP. REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CORE OF STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN
THE CUT BANK AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHEN THESE WINDS MIX
DOWN, STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS THE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IN THIS AREA.
THE WARMING CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MT.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE BEARS
PAW, KINGS HILL AND CENTRAL MT, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE SNOWFALL COULD BE A BIT HEAVER IN THE BIG
SNOWY MOUNTAINS, SO A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THAT ONE
ZONE.
THURSDAY IS A QUIET DAY, AS WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA ON FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
2/3 OF THE CWA. OVERALL LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER THAT THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MIX DOWN IN THE CUT BANK AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THE SNOW, THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
IN THE BIG SNOWY MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT/WED. THE PROBABILITY IS
QUITE LOW, BUT THE NBM HAS OVER 15 INCHES, THUS A WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED.
ON FRIDAY, OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE IN
THE ADVISORY CATEGORY, WITH THE MOUNTAINS HAVING A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OR HIGHER OF OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BRUSDA
AVIATION
21/00Z TAF PERIOD
MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WIND
RELATED AS MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AT KCTB AND KGTF EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL AS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING SE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO KHVR AND KLWT. HOENISCH
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION
WEATHER AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 15 34 20 32 / 0 20 30 20
CTB 17 28 16 27 / 10 20 10 0
HLN 1 34 16 30 / 10 10 10 10
BZN -8 29 8 26 / 0 10 20 10
WYS -30 13 -8 19 / 0 10 20 10
DLN -4 29 6 26 / 0 0 0 0
HVR -4 31 18 29 / 0 40 40 20
LWT -4 31 17 25 / 0 30 60 50
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR EASTERN GLACIER,
WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND
HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE
BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR GALLATIN AND
MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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