868
FXUS65 KTFX 141112
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 2021
..UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP SPOTTY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVELY CONFINED TO
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY TREND WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TODAY, WIDESPREAD
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT, AND LOW STABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A REGION-WIDE CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY GIVEN SIMILAR WIDESPREAD SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER AIR TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND REDUCING
THE SHOWER THREAT THERE, WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
MAINTAINS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT,
REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NW US AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM-RANGE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
STRONGER AND LONGER DURATION RIDGING OVER THE REGION THAT NOW
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 80F FOR
MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SW FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOME COOLING
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 2021 (14/12Z TAF PERIOD)
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AT
ALL AREA TERMINALS. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW MT, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACROSS THE PLAINS,
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. LUDWIG
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION WEATHER
AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 67 40 72 43 / 20 10 10 0
CTB 65 39 71 43 / 20 20 10 0
HLN 70 44 74 45 / 30 20 10 0
BZN 69 40 70 39 / 30 20 20 0
WYS 64 31 63 28 / 40 30 30 0
DLN 67 40 69 39 / 20 20 10 0
HVR 69 43 74 46 / 20 0 10 0
LWT 64 39 68 41 / 30 20 20 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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