416
FXUS65 KTFX 282145
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022
SYNOPSIS
COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 2PM, CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR SHOW ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THAT MAY QUICKLY BRING A REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OUT.
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO FALL THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS EVENING, REACHING TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AS PROBABILITIES ARE 80 TO 97
PERCENT.
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CAN OCCUR IN
SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ESPECIALLY ALONG PASSES ON THE MT/ID BORDER.
TREATED ROADWAYS CAN RE-COVER WITH SNOW AND MAKE DRIVING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS, DRIVE WITH CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING BLOWING
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0 ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.
OUR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WHEN OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THAT HAS A PROBABILITY OF
10 TO 30 PERCENT OF BRINGING MODERATE IMPACTS SUCH AS SNOWFALL
RATES THAT CAN IMPACT DRIVING CONDITIONS. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. AS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP, OUR CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BUT AT THIS
TIME IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS, END TIMING, AND LOCATIONS AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN ENSEMBLE MODELS OF LOCATION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WE HEAD INTO A
WEATHER PATTERN AFTERWARDS OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. WEBB
AVIATION
1035 AM MST MON NOV 28 2022 (28/18Z TAF PERIOD)
KGTF AND KLWT CONTINUES TO SEE ISOLATED SNOWFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z TODAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH THESE BANDS OF SNOW. AN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR KHLN AND KBZN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN ANY QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW.
ANOTHER QUICK BURST OF SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL MONTANA AND SW MT IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MORNING HOURS EVERYWHERE. WEBB
REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/ZLC FOR MORE DETAILED REGIONAL AVIATION WEATHER
AND HAZARD INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 2 11 -1 26 / 20 10 0 0
CTB -1 8 -5 16 / 10 10 0 20
HLN 1 11 1 25 / 20 10 0 0
BZN -4 8 -3 24 / 20 10 0 0
WYS -14 13 -2 22 / 20 10 20 50
DLN -4 10 1 23 / 30 0 0 20
HVR 4 12 -5 21 / 10 0 0 0
LWT -1 9 -5 26 / 20 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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