590
FXUS65 KTFX 072345
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE
TOMORROW AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
- MAINLY WARM AND DRY SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 506 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026/
5 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MT. THUS POPS INCREASED THROUGH AT LEAST
9 PM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. BRUSDA
2 PM UPDATE.
AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA. POPS WERE INCREASED TO ENSURE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. -AM
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 506 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026/
AN EMBEDDED WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH RIDGING
IS TECHNICALLY BUILDING IN TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING, FLOW ALOFT
DOESNT REALLY TREND ANTI-CYCLONIC, WHICH WILL KEEP SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND. THE REASON THIS IS MENTIONED IS THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL LARGELY LIMIT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT WHERE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.
AS QUICKLY AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
LATE TONIGHT, IT IS BROKEN DOWN ALMOST AS QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST FROM WA DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW, EVENTUALLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A CUT BANK TO GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE
WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR A MIX OF SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER FROM SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER LOOKS TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AT
LEAST ONE ATTEMPT AT A RIDGE BREAKDOWN. THE RESULT IS FOR A STRETCH
OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WHEN ANY BRIEF RIDGE BREAKDOWN OCCURS. ANY RIDGE
BREAKDOWN WOULD ALSO FEATURE AT LEAST BRIEF INCREASES TO WINDS,
THOUGH NOT ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. -AM
AVIATION
08/00Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 08/02Z TO
08/06Z. CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING AT A GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW AND
ISOLATED, RESULTING IN IT NOT BEING IN THE TAF. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS KCTB, WHERE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MORE NUMEROUS THIS
EVENING. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE ISOLATED CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING IF TAF SITES GET DECENT MOISTURE FROM
SHOWERS. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
-WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 43 75 50 67 / 20 10 20 20
CTB 40 73 46 66 / 30 10 50 30
HLN 41 75 47 71 / 40 0 0 0
BZN 37 72 41 68 / 30 0 0 0
WYS 31 68 35 64 / 10 0 10 0
DLN 38 72 40 70 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 39 78 46 68 / 20 10 40 40
LWT 39 71 44 60 / 20 10 50 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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