627
FXUS65 KTFX 231112
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
512 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
- WINDY AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 305 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MT TODAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUD-COVER STILL THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WARMEST READINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOW ON SATURDAY
WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. A FASTER ZONAL (W-E) PROGRESSION OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS LOOKS TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WHILE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRING SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR EXTENT OF MOISTURE STILL AT THIS
POINT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS IN THE
FAST WESTERLY FLOW THAT FOLLOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE FRIDAY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MAY
MEET A VERY WARM/DRY AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED
FRONTAL WINDS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT,
ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTION (SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS)
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE
RISES ARE ALSO INDICATED WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTS EXCEEDING
40-50 MPH FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY ALSO PLAY A ROLE LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY
MTN FRONT AND A 30-50% PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS HIGHER THAN 55 MPH AS
FAR EAST AS CUT BANK AND GREAT FALLS. HOENISCH
AVIATION
23/12Z TAF PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT OUT WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER DISTURBANCE BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THROUGH 16Z, MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR THE KWYS AND KLWT TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OTHERWISE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING
SOME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 79 50 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 74 46 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 77 47 81 51 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 73 45 78 46 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 63 31 70 34 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 72 43 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 81 48 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 76 50 81 53 / 30 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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