633
FXUS65 KTFX 180707
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1207 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL
BE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS
30 BELOW EXPECTED.
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. WHILE THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS
THAT WARMER WEATHER MAY RETURN TO MONTANA SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOWFALL TODAY:
LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH A CONCERN FOR
IMPACTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND IMPACTS EXPECTED, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.
ALL THAT CONSIDERED, THERE ARE TWO WILD CARDS FOR TODAY. THE
FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWBANDING IN THE WEST YELLOWSTONE
AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCED SNOWFALL THAT
IMPACTS THE TOWN OF WEST YELLOWSTONE AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING
PASSES. RIGHT NOW, LOOKING AT POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO JUSTIFY ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN A WARNING BUT FOLKS TRAVELING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SECOND WILD CARD IS POTENTIALLY LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL IN
BOZEMAN. SLIGHT CHANGES IN HOW THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH COULD
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE BUT IF BLOCKED FLOW SETS UP, BOZEMAN PROPER
COULD END UP SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
BECAUSE THERE IS VARYING CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS WILL PLAY OUT,
FOR NOW AN ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS START TO APPEAR.
NORTH OF I-90 THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT AND THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING
NORTH. THUS THESE REGIONS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. BUT SHOULD THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH, THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED.
LINGERING COLD:
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN. GIVEN THAT
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO EXTEND THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO COVER THE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED. -THOR
AVIATION
18/00Z TAF PERIOD
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OVERALL THE LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 03Z. BREEZY
WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ON WED MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST MT, WHICH WILL
STEADILY MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z THUR. IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SNOW ON WED. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE
OBSCURED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 32 -5 1 -8 / 100 40 50 40
CTB 21 -13 -4 -18 / 100 40 40 20
HLN 39 -3 8 -6 / 100 20 70 50
BZN 43 9 20 -2 / 70 20 60 70
WYS 32 7 28 -2 / 100 60 80 80
DLN 41 17 26 6 / 70 20 60 60
HVR 40 -8 6 -12 / 100 50 10 30
LWT 44 -5 6 -9 / 60 30 30 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD
AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI
HEADWATERS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR GALLATIN
AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD
MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON MST THURSDAY
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
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