214
FXUS65 KTFX 042332
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
532 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
- IT WILL BE WARM THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH A BRIEF
COOLDOWN ON SUNDAY.
- IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 157 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON FRIDAY THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ON FRIDAY DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IT WILL BE WINDY. FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING A WEEK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. ON SATURDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IT WILL BE WINDY. SATURDAY
EVENING/SUNDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 15 - 35% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO HELENA LINE IN NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. DUE TO THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 15 - 25% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON MONDAY THERE
IS A 20 - 40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HAVRE
TO GREAT FALLS TO HELENA LINE IN NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND THE
PLAINS WEST OF I-15. ON FRIDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT THERE IS A 40 - 65% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR
GREATER. FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THERE IS A
60 - 80% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER IN FERGUS
AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. -IG
AVIATION
05/00Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE EARLY
THIS EVENING. A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
-WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 44 79 48 72 / 0 0 0 20
CTB 41 71 43 66 / 0 0 0 20
HLN 44 79 48 74 / 0 0 0 20
BZN 42 82 46 80 / 0 0 0 20
WYS 35 74 39 76 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 43 81 46 78 / 0 0 0 20
HVR 45 79 47 75 / 10 0 10 10
LWT 42 79 45 76 / 20 0 10 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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