167
FXUS65 KTFX 291115
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH A
MODERATING TRENDING ON THURSDAY BEFORE VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
MOIST, UNSTABLE, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON TURNS TO EVENING AND DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES. LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION MAY
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGH VALLEYS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE
WEST, ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT. DUE TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN
OVER WESTERN MT ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
60S AND MID 70S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS QUASI-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REDEVELOPS, WITH THIS FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTING
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. - MOLDAN AND DZOMBA
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY REMAIN LOW, WITH ONLY ABOUT A
25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.10 INCHES, DUE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES, ABOUT A
35 PERCENT FOR 0.10 INCHES. -DZOMBA
AVIATION
29/12Z TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, OTHERWISE, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT MOSTLY PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ISOLATED AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE AT TERMINAL SITES. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA BY PASSING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 58 32 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 57 30 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 57 31 62 34 / 40 0 0 0
BZN 55 26 58 29 / 50 10 0 0
WYS 48 20 51 19 / 60 20 0 0
DLN 55 29 58 31 / 50 10 0 0
HVR 59 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 53 27 56 32 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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