539  
FNUS71 KAKQ 122026  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HANOVER JANEWAY...VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
426 PM EDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON APRIL 13.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (53300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 16 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 31 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 41 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 54  
DECREASING TO 41 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........88 87 86 79 72 65 59 53 47 44 40 36  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............49 50 51 54 57 59 61 63 64 66 67 67  
RH..............93 89 86 77 69 64 60 54 50 47 45 45  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 8 7 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 10 13 15 16 16 15 14 12 9  
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............3 11 13 18 27 34 39 42 56 51 44 37  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 8 9 16 25 36 44 50 53 49 43 37  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR PR  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (24500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................34 DECREASING TO 3.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........37 38 39 38 36 35 34 33 32 37 41 46  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............66 63 60 58 56 54 52 51 49 49 49 48  
RH..............48 56 64 67 72 77 80 83 89 89 89 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 2.7 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 6 7 8 7 5 3 3 3 5  
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 7 7 6 6  
ADI.............34 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..25 16 10 7 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (19800 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 17 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING TO 26 EARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........53 68 75 81 85 88  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 40 60 60  
TEMP............49 50 57 61 62 61  
RH..............89 89 75 65 65 70  
20 FT WIND......S 3 S 3 S 4 SW 4 W 3 S 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 6 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 1000 1700 2400 2100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 7 S 12 S 10 SE 10 SE 9 E 8  
LVORI...........6 5 3 2 2 3  
ADI.............3 9 14 17 27 16  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 2 9 15 20 15  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...ZIMMERMAN  
REQUESTED BY...DAVE SLACK  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2108724.0/AKQ  
.DELDT 04/12/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL DAVE.SLACK@DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV  
 
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