324  
FNUS71 KAKQ 100932  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR NASSAWANGO-U5...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
532 AM EDT WED APR 10 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON APRIL 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY, WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES  
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. A LIGHT SW WIND EARLY THIS MORNING IS  
EXPECTED TO BECOME 10 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,  
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BREEZY  
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY, WITH THE WIND  
SHIFTING TO WEST AND REMAINING BREEZY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 24  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO AROUND  
13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (71900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................4 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 61 IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........87 85 83 79 76 72 67 62 57 57 57 57  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............58 59 59 62 64 67 69 71 72 73 74 73  
RH..............86 83 83 75 73 65 61 57 55 53 51 55  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 11 13 14 15 16 19 16 15 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W W W SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 7 9 12 15 18 22 24 22 17 13  
LVORI...........6 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............4 5 5 10 24 39 54 54 61 54 56 42  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 2 2 8 16 28 43 59 72 62 48 34  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD FR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (19700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (2200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................4 TO 27.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........60 63 67 68 70 71 70 69 68 72 76 80  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............72 70 68 66 64 63 63 62 61 61 60 59  
RH..............57 61 68 70 75 78 78 81 84 81 84 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 11 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 11 11 11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10  
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5  
ADI.............27 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..20 10 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30  
MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 33 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (36700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................9 TO 45.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........83 88 90 97 100 100  
WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 70 70  
TEMP............59 60 64 68 69 71  
RH..............87 87 81 73 69 67  
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 8 S 11 S 16 S 18 S 19  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 14 19 23 30 32  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 1200 1700 2000 1800  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 S 12 S 17 S 21 S 21 S 23  
LVORI...........5 5 3 3 3 1  
ADI.............9 12 26 45 41 41  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 4 18 31 37 36  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...ZIMMERMAN  
REQUESTED BY...GABRIEL CAHALAN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2410188.0/AKQ  
.DELDT 04/10/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL GCAHALAN@TNC.ORG  
 
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