023  
FNUS71 KAKQ 181020  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JAMES RIVER RX...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
620 AM EDT THU APR 18 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON APRIL 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA  
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 17 TO  
25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (97000 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................8 INCREASING TO 71.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........46 44 41 39 36 34 31 30 30 29  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............59 64 69 74 77 80 81 82 83 82  
RH..............90 75 61 53 47 42 39 38 37 38  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S SW SW S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 6 6 6 8 9 11 11 12 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 10 10 13 14 18 18 18 19  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 9 13 15 17 20 22 24 25 25  
LVORI...........4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............5 11 24 39 54 52 61 68 72 73  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 8 17 28 43 60 79 88 95 97  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD GD  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 23 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (67700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (7500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................59 DECREASING TO 16.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........28 27 26 33 39 46 52 59 66 69 72 76  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............80 78 75 72 70 69 68 67 67 66 66 66  
RH..............42 48 55 61 66 68 73 75 78 81 84 84  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..11 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 16 14 14 14 16 16 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 2.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 20 17 17 18 21 21 21 21 20 17 16  
LVORI...........1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4  
ADI.............59 13 12 12 13 18 19 19 18 17 16 14  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..68 41 20 16 13 8 10 11 13 11 9 8  
VENTRATE CAT....GD FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS  
LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 37 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (92000 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................14 INCREASING TO 79.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........79 86 87 88 89 90  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 60 60 60 80 80  
TEMP............67 69 72 75 77 77  
RH..............84 81 79 74 69 69  
20 FT WIND......S 9 S 9 S 11 S 13 S 14 S 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 18 20 22 22  
MIX HGT (FT)....700 1000 1900 2600 3000 3200  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 13 S 29 S 37 S 33 S 33  
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 1 1  
ADI.............12 16 54 82 80 82  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 3 3 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 11 48 84 87 92  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD  
 

 
FORECASTER...ALBRIGHT  
REQUESTED BY...GREGG BUCKALEW  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1906498.0/AKQ  
.DELDT 04/18/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL GREGG_BUCKALEW@FWS.GOV  
 
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