289  
FNUS71 KAKQ 051054  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BOUNDARY...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
654 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JULY 05.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NOT EXACTLY A REPEAT FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY BUT CLOSE. WARM AND  
HUMID WITH AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE  
IS FROM ABOUT 3 OR 4 PM UNTIL 8 PM. IF YOU DO GET A THUNDERSTORM,  
A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS IT WILL BE  
SLOW MOVING. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST  
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........FOG EARLY THEN PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AN  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS LIKELY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 14 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (50400 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................INCREASING TO AROUND 50 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........60 57 58 60 62 64 67 68 70 72  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 30 50 60 60 60  
TEMP............74 78 81 84 86 87 88 88 88 87  
RH..............92 85 77 72 68 66 65 64 63 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S S SW SW SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.3 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 13 13  
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 3  
ADI.............12 19 26 33 39 45 50 38 38 36  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 14 21 29 36 43 49 50 50 48  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (39500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (3700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................32 DECREASING TO 6.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........70 67 64 65 66 67 66 65 64 67 70 74  
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............86 84 82 80 79 78 77 77 76 75 75 75  
RH..............68 72 77 82 85 88 90 90 94 97 99 99  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 3.5 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9  
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7  
ADI.............32 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..40 31 25 17 10 4 6 8 10 9 8 8  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (61100 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................4 INCREASING TO 43.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........74 73 72 74 79 75  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC LIKELY LIKELY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 40 60 60  
TEMP............75 78 83 87 89 89  
RH..............97 88 77 68 64 64  
20 FT WIND......SW 2 SW 3 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 6 7 7 7  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1500 3100 4000 4300 4300  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 10 SW 12 SW 14 SW 16 SW 16  
LVORI...........7 4 3 3 1 1  
ADI.............4 21 29 39 47 45  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 14 32 49 61 59  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD FAIR  
 

 
FORECASTER...MCGEE  
REQUESTED BY...GREGG BUCKALEW  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1911572.5/AKQ  
.DELDT 07/05/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL GREGG_BUCKALEW@FWS.GOV  
 
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