405  
FNUS71 KRNK 141753  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHESTNUT RIDGE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
153 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 14.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
BETWEEN 2-4PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY STORMS.  
 
WINDS TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.  
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. BREEZY WEATHER  
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (23000 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (48700 MPH-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................38 DECREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........85 86 87 98  
WEATHER COV..... SCT NUM  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW  
TSTM COV........ ISO  
CWR.............10 10 40 60  
TEMP............69 70 70 68  
RH..............44 43 42 45  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 18 20 21  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 3.6 3.1 2.6  
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W  
MIXNG WIND SPD..14 13 12 10  
LVORI...........1 1 2 2  
ADI.............38 34 28 23  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.56 47 36 26  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......80 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16  
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 13  
MPH OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (17900 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (2900 MPH-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................18 DECREASING TO 2.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........98 94 84 85 84 81  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE NUMRUS SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............80 70 50 40 30 20  
TEMP............65 57 53 51 49 46  
RH..............50 68 81 85 90 87  
20 FT WIND......W 9 NW 6 W 3 W 4 NW 6 NW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 13 6 8 12 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....2200 1300 1000 1000 1400 1500  
MIXING WIND.....W 9 N 6 NW 3 NW 7 NW 13 NW 13  
LVORI...........2 3 5 5 5 4  
ADI.............18 7 2 4 8 9  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 2 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.19 8 4 7 17 19  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING  
THEN BECOMING SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT)IN THE  
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.  
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (20400 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (107400 MPH-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................10 INCREASING TO 76.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........81 72 46 46 36 20  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............20 10 10 10 10 0  
TEMP............45 44 48 52 53 54  
RH..............87 88 71 57 47 42  
20 FT WIND......NW 5 W 9 W 10 W 12 W 12 W 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 23 25 26 29  
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1600 2700 3700 4600 4800  
MIXING WIND.....NW 15 W 20 NW 21 W 20 W 20 NW 23  
LVORI...........5 4 3 1 1 1  
ADI.............10 32 61 52 57 70  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.23 30 54 72 88 112  
 

 
FORECASTER...SILVERMAN  
REQUESTED BY...ROBBIE CLAYTOR  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2109067.0/RNK  
.DELDT 04/14/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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