372
FNUS71 KRNK 071003
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR SLATE RIVER MILL RX...VDOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
603 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON OCTOBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA, LEADING TO PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WHILE WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM
AT AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THIS MORNING, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 10-20 MPH AT TIMES
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS, ESPECIALLY SINCE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT. ENOUGH MOISTURE COMING OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL ALSO LEAD TO MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND 60% DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF PEAK MIXING. RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE INCOMING FRONT DON'T LOOK TO IMPACT THE BURN LOCATION
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH. OVERALL, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME. THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED; HOWEVER, RH VALUES
LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT ANY FIRE SHOULDN'T GET OUT OF
HAND.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (71800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................15 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 76 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........60 60 60 60 62 62 72 80
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
TEMP............69 74 76 78 79 79 79 79
RH..............84 75 69 65 63 62 63 63
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 11 12 13 13 12 11
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.8 2.8 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.5 3.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
MIXNG WIND SPD..10 13 15 16 17 18 18 17
LVORI...........4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............15 23 34 43 48 53 54 76
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.13 23 41 59 71 82 83 63
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE IN
THE EVENING INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT INCREASING
OVERNIGHT TO 80 PERCENT AFTER 3 AM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (17100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................4 TO 26.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........64 70 84 77 85 91 93 92 92 94 89 95
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY DEF LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 20 40 40 40 50 70 80 70
TEMP............77 75 71 70 69 69 69 69 68 68 67 67
RH..............67 72 79 83 84 85 88 89 91 94 96 100
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6
20 FT WIND GUST.11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5
MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..14 9 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 12 13
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 8
ADI.............26 6 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 8
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.20 5 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 7
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......80 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12
TO 18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (62000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................8 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 50 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........97 98 92 87 86 85 86 86 87 77 67 57
WEATHER COV.....DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............80 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 30 30 30 30
TEMP............67 66 66 68 69 71 72 73 73 73 72 70
RH..............99 100 100 100 98 95 92 87 83 81 78 77
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW W W W N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.9
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW W NW N N N N N N N
MIXNG WIND SPD..12 10 9 10 12 13 14 14 15 17 18 18
LVORI...........8 7 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3
ADI.............8 11 8 16 23 35 40 48 41 46 50 50
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.6 5 8 12 18 30 36 47 57 66 71 71
FORECASTER...HANES
REQUESTED BY...HC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523050.1/RNK
.DELDT 10/07/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RICHARD.BURGESS@DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV,HARLEE.CRADDOCK@DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page