028
FNUS71 KRNK 170239
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR JOHNSONS CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1039 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2300 EDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DRIER WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
25 TO 35 PERCENT. FUELS LIKELY MOIST FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RECENT RAINFALL.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 2 TO 3 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (500 MPH-FT).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........13 10 6 9 4 2 2
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............55 54 53 53 51 49 48
RH..............70 73 75 76 79 85 89
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW W W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 3 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W W SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..3 2 2 3 2 2 2
LVORI...........3 4 3 4 4 4 4
ADI.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 3 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 24 TO
25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (108900 MPH-FT)
LATE IN THE MORNING.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 83.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........2 4 3 11 10 10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............48 56 64 70 73 74
RH..............90 75 54 42 36 33
20 FT WIND......W 2 W 4 W 7 W 9 W 9 NW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 14 18 18 20
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1000 4100 5900 6400 6400
MIXING WIND.....W 3 W 8 W 18 W 24 W 24 NW 25
LVORI...........5 3 1 1 1 1
ADI.............2 10 69 78 81 85
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 9 74 140 154 160
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH BECOMING WEST 0 TO 8 MPH
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (131200 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO FAIR (14900 MPH-FT) EARLY
IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO POOR (0 MPH-FT)
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................114 DECREASING TO 4.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........7 6 7 14 28 25
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............73 67 62 58 56 53
RH..............35 45 54 61 67 73
20 FT WIND......NW 8 NW 3 W 2 W 1 W 1 W 0
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 12 7 3 5
MIX HGT (FT)....5900 4800 2000 500 300 300
MIXING WIND.....NW 25 NW 23 W 8 W 0 W 1 W 0
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 4 4
ADI.............114 10 4 0 0 0
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.151 112 17 0 0 0
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 0 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 20
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO EXCELLENT (95000 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 INCREASING TO 62 LATE IN THE MORNING
DECREASING TO 50 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........25 39 52 62
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC
CWR.............0 10 10 40
TEMP............51 62 74 77
RH..............81 63 46 42
20 FT WIND......SW 0G4 SW 1G4 SW 4G10 SW 5G12
MIX HGT (FT)....400 2400 6400 7100
MIXING WIND.....SW 0 SW 6 W 17 SW 18
LVORI...........6 2 1 1
ADI.............0 16 58 63
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.0 13 109 127
FORECASTER...SAVA
REQUESTED BY...LARRY SHAW DIV3
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2212202.0/RNK
.DELDT 05/16/22
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26
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