202
FNUS71 KRNK 151106
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR BALD MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
606 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0630 EST ON NOVEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND VERY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
THE 60S AND 70S. FORTUNATELY, MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER, LEAF LITTER STILL REMAINS DRY
FROM MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYING THIS PAST WEEK, BUT INCREASED
HUMIDITY SHOULD PREVENT RAPID FIRE SPREAD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY BEHIND A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SE WEST VIRGINIA. LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH, ALONG WITH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO MID
UPPER 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...RH MINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. THIS BRINGS A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY, NEARLY AREAWIDE.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON MONDAY, STILL WILL SEE
GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. EVEN LOWER MIN RH VALUES
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HEIGHTENED FIRE
AWARENESS THROUGH MONDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 22 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (66200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 56 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........66 52 58 80 80 86 89 89 93 90 89 73
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 53 54 57 61 63 64 66 65 65 64 62
RH..............63 74 74 70 65 62 59 56 57 55 56 60
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 19 20 20 19 19 19 18 18 19 19 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 2.5 1.2
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..8 8 9 10 13 16 20 22 22 21 18 16
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
ADI.............9 9 10 14 23 36 50 56 56 53 40 22
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 4 6 11 23 43 66 75 76 73 45 18
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 3 AM
DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (23200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (9000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8 TO 22.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........39 32 38 36 34 41 40 38 57 55 54 41
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 40 30 30 10
TEMP............60 59 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 58 57 56
RH..............66 67 68 69 70 73 72 74 76 79 81 80
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.22 23 25 26 28 29 29 29 30 30 30 30
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW W W W W W W W W W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..13 12 13 14 16 16 17 17 17 18 21 25
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3
ADI.............9 8 8 13 18 15 19 19 16 17 19 22
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.12 10 12 16 24 22 24 23 20 24 25 27
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 30 TO 39 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (30500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (125000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (106500
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................43 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 108 IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........35 26 15 11 7 7 6 6 4 3 1 2
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............54 54 53 53 53 54 54 53 52 51 49 47
RH..............80 74 69 60 51 43 37 33 31 31 32 34
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.30 23 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 23 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.3 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.4
MIXNG WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
MIXNG WIND SPD..30 35 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 39 38 37
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............43 52 80 85 90 97 102 107 108 108 107 92
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.35 45 92 103 116 131 144 157 159 160 157 122
FORECASTER...GRUVER
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN BORDEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2525894.3/RNK
.DELDT 11/15/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRIAN.THEILER@USDA.GOV,JSELBY@BLM.GOV,VAVIC@FIRENET.GOV
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