649
FNUS71 KRNK 201042
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR BACK CREEK WILDFIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
542 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0630 EST ON NOVEMBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
YOU CAN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER THE SITE THIS MORNING, THEN SUNSHINE
PEEKS OUT BY MID AFTERNOON. RH WILL STAY ELEVATED, AND 20 FOOT
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE IT DRIES OUT AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIND/LOW RH CONCERNS FOR THE
FEW DAYS.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 7 TO 10
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (19200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................8 TO 24.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 93 82 76 67 64
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............42 42 42 43 46 48 50 52 53 54 53 52
RH..............99 100 100 95 91 87 82 80 77 76 77 82
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.2
MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S S S SW SW SW W W W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 9 10 10
LVORI...........8 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4
ADI.............9 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 15 19 24 15
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.8 8 7 7 8 8 9 12 17 22 20 12
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 2 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................1 TO 4.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM
SKY (%).........72 83 86
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 10 10
TEMP............50 46 45
RH..............88 92 91
20 FT WIND......W 2G5 S 1 SW 1
MIX HGT (FT)....900 1000 800
MIXING WIND......W 9 W 6 W 2
LVORI...........5 6 7
ADI.............4 3 1
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.8 6 2
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN.
CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT IN THE
MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 2 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1300 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............7.
ADI.................2 TO 8.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 92 93 94 95 95 96 94 92 90 91
WEATHER COV.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............60 80 80 80 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 70
TEMP............45 45 46 48 51 53 55 56 58 58 58 58
RH..............93 95 99 97 92 88 85 83 81 80 81 83
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.2 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W SW S S S SW W SW SW SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5
LVORI...........6 8 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5
ADI.............3 3 2 2 2 4 6 8 8 7 6 6
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 2 1 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 5 5
FORECASTER...PERRY
REQUESTED BY...MARCUS SEWELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526163.2/RNK
.DELDT 11/20/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MARCUS.SEWELL@USDA.GOV
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