405
FNUS71 KRNK 141753
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHESTNUT RIDGE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
153 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 2-4PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY STORMS.
WINDS TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. BREEZY WEATHER
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (23000 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (48700 MPH-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................38 DECREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........85 86 87 98
WEATHER COV..... SCT NUM
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........ ISO
CWR.............10 10 40 60
TEMP............69 70 70 68
RH..............44 43 42 45
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.20 18 20 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 3.6 3.1 2.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..14 13 12 10
LVORI...........1 1 2 2
ADI.............38 34 28 23
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.56 47 36 26
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......80 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 13
MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (17900 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2900 MPH-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................18 DECREASING TO 2.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........98 94 84 85 84 81
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE NUMRUS SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CWR.............80 70 50 40 30 20
TEMP............65 57 53 51 49 46
RH..............50 68 81 85 90 87
20 FT WIND......W 9 NW 6 W 3 W 4 NW 6 NW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.20 13 6 8 12 12
MIX HGT (FT)....2200 1300 1000 1000 1400 1500
MIXING WIND.....W 9 N 6 NW 3 NW 7 NW 13 NW 13
LVORI...........2 3 5 5 5 4
ADI.............18 7 2 4 8 9
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 2 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.19 8 4 7 17 19
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING
THEN BECOMING SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT)IN THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (20400 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (107400 MPH-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................10 INCREASING TO 76.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........81 72 46 46 36 20
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............20 10 10 10 10 0
TEMP............45 44 48 52 53 54
RH..............87 88 71 57 47 42
20 FT WIND......NW 5 W 9 W 10 W 12 W 12 W 13
20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 23 25 26 29
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1600 2700 3700 4600 4800
MIXING WIND.....NW 15 W 20 NW 21 W 20 W 20 NW 23
LVORI...........5 4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............10 32 61 52 57 70
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.23 30 54 72 88 112
FORECASTER...SILVERMAN
REQUESTED BY...ROBBIE CLAYTOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2109067.0/RNK
.DELDT 04/14/21
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26
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