403
FNUS71 KRNK 202023
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR HOLLOW...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
423 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1700 EDT ON JULY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THESE DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 10 MPH, GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE, PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF
A TORNADO. MINRH VALUES STAY AROUND 60-70%. WINDS STAY ELEVATED, GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK
AND DROPS MINRH VALUES TO AROUND 50% AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE MID 50S,
AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO UPPER 70S. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STILL GUSTING BETWEEN 15-20 MPH UNTIL WINDS FINALLY
REDUCE ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH, THOUGH WINDS SHIFT
AGAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (38300 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................56.
TIME (EDT) 5PM
SKY (%).........32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10
TEMP............78
RH..............67
20 FT WIND DIR..S
20 FT WIND SPD..2
20 FT WIND GUST.4
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..10
LVORI...........1
ADI.............56
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.44
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE
IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN
THE EVENING DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT DECREASING
TO 10 PERCENT OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 20
PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
EVENING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (38600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (1900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................57 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 3 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........34 51 74 83 60 70
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RN/FG RN/FG
TSTM COV........ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............20 30 40 20 20 20
TEMP............77 75 72 71 70 70
RH..............71 75 85 88 90 91
20 FT WIND......S 3 S 6 S 5 S 4 S 5 SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.6 11 10 8 8 10
MIX HGT (FT)....3300 800 700 500 500 500
MIXING WIND......S 14 S 17 S 9 S 5 S 6 S 5
LVORI...........3 4 4 6 6 6
ADI.............57 12 6 3 4 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.44 14 7 2 3 2
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 21 TO
28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (88800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 109 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........73 58 50 57 90 87
WEATHER COV.....S CHC PATCHY S CHC CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RN/FG FOG NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE LIKELY
CWR.............20 10 10 20 50 60
TEMP............69 71 75 78 80 79
RH..............92 92 86 76 68 71
20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 11 14 16 14
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1100 2100 3800 4200 2600
MIXING WIND......S 5 SW 7 W 22 W 26 W 21 W 23
LVORI...........6 6 4 3 1 3
ADI.............3 9 59 98 79 69
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 7 47 102 88 61
FORECASTER...BURROUGHS
REQUESTED BY...LINDSEY CURTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617252.15/RNK
.DELDT 07/20/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LINDSEY.CURTIN@USDA.GOV,JACOB.JOHNSON2@USDA.GOV,JAMES.COLLETT@USDA.GOV,MARTIN.ANGELO@USDA.GOV,BRENT.FOLTZ@USDA.GOV
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