273
FNUS71 KRNK 201403
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE SHERWOOD PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
903 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EST ON NOVEMBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY AND ALLOW FOR A WETTING RAINFALL TO OCCUR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MIDDAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING
AND TURNING NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AROUND 5-10 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 MPH. DESPITE THE WIND SHIFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, RH
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CRITICALLY LOW, BUT WILL BE AROUND 40%.
WIND GUSTS OF 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN IN THE MORNING,
THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......80 PERCENT DECREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 1 MPH INCREASING TO 3 TO 5
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (200 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............8.
ADI.................1 TO 5.
TIME (EST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 94 93 91 92 94 95 94 93 92 91
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............80 80 80 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 70
TEMP............44 45 47 50 52 54 55 56 57 57 56
RH..............98 100 100 97 94 90 88 85 84 85 88
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 11
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..W SW S SE S SW W SW SW SW S
MIXNG WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 3 5 5 5 3 3 3
LVORI...........10 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
ADI.............1 1 1 2 2 4 5 5 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 1
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN RAIN.
CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 8 TO
9 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1200 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............7.
ADI.................2 TO 7.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........91 90 90 89 89 89 89 85 85 85 85 85
WEATHER COV.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............70 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
TEMP............55 54 54 54 54 54 53 53 53 52 52 51
RH..............92 96 97 97 96 97 97 97 97 97 97 97
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..5 6 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 9
LVORI...........6 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6
ADI.............2 3 3 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......80 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (23000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................8 TO 29.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........85 62 62 62 62 62 62 59 53 47 41 39
WEATHER COV.....DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............80 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............50 49 51 52 54 55 56 56 56 56 54 52
RH..............98 97 94 89 84 77 70 65 61 59 60 64
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3
20 FT WIND GUST.12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.1
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
MIXNG WIND SPD..10 13 15 17 18 16 13 9 9 9 10 10
LVORI...........8 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
ADI.............8 10 12 23 29 28 23 19 18 26 29 27
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.4 4 10 18 26 26 24 20 20 22 25 21
FORECASTER...BURROUGHS
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT CUMMINGS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2526448.0/RNK
.DELDT 11/20/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ROBERT.CUMMINGS@USDA.GOV
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