351
FNUS71 KRNK 111531
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR TSI SITE PREP RX...PILOT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1131 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2019
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AFTER 2 PM, AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT, THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, AND WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
WINDS GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 2 TO 3 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7300 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (25000 MPH-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................28 DECREASING TO 14 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........15 12 9 11 11 12
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........ SCH
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 20
TEMP............86 90 92 92 91 90
RH..............68 57 53 52 51 52
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 4 4 4 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 4.5 5.7 5.0 4.3 3.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..NW N N NE SE S
MIXNG WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 3 2
LVORI...........2 2 1 2 2 2
ADI.............23 30 32 25 17 10
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.19 25 29 21 14 8
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 1 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 0 TO 1 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 MPH-FT).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........19 28 26 25 23 25
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC
CWR.............20 20 10 10 10 0
TEMP............88 82 78 76 74 72
RH..............55 70 77 83 87 91
20 FT WIND......S 3 S 3 W 1 NW 1 E 0 NE 0
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 1
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 300 300 300 300 300
MIXING WIND......S 1 S 1 W 1 NW 1 E 0 NE 0
LVORI...........3 4 4 6 6 7
ADI.............5 0 0 0 0 0
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.4 0 0 0 0 0
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO FAIR (26600 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................3 INCREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 33 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 16 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 8.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........26 29 32 34 36 43
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 20
TEMP............71 72 81 89 92 93
RH..............93 93 72 55 47 45
20 FT WIND......NE 0 NE 1 N 2 N 2 NE 1 E 2
20 FT WIND GUST. 2
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 2000 4000 6200 5800
MIXING WIND......NE 0 NE 1 N 7 N 8 N 5 NW 2
LVORI...........8 8 3 1 2 2
ADI.............0 1 16 37 28 12
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.0 0 13 31 25 11
FORECASTER...HYSELL
REQUESTED BY...NICHOLAS BOWMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1915293.0/RNK
.DELDT 09/11/19
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page