236  
FNUS71 KRNK 181103  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR GREENE PRESCRIBED BURN...N C FOREST SERVICE DISTRICT 2  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
703 AM EDT THU APR 18 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON APRIL 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY  
FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT THE BURN SITE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE  
MORNING INVERSION SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER 9 AM TO ALLOW GOOD MIXING  
AND SMOKE DISPERSAL AFTERWARD. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD EXCEED 3000  
FEET AGL BY THE AFTERNOON.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (71100 MPH-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 60.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 6 OR VERY LOW TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........65 63 43 29 14 5 9 14 29 25 42 43  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............56 56 56 58 61 63 65 65 66 67 67 66  
RH..............68 71 74 72 71 68 65 65 65 64 63 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 12 17 17 17 17  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3  
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S  
MIXNG WIND SPD..3 3 5 7 10 15 17 20 21 22 24 25  
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............3 4 3 5 11 22 35 47 44 50 56 63  
HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 1 1 4 10 18 27 37 49 59 70 82  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 26 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 33 TO 38 MPH  
LATE IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (79400 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO GOOD (32700 MPH-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................65 DECREASING TO 42 IN THE EVENING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 48 LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING  
TO 35 OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 46.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........50 72 92 95 97 96  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............10 10 30 40 60 80  
TEMP............66 64 62 61 60 60  
RH..............65 69 75 82 87 88  
20 FT WIND......S 9 S 8 S 10 S 12 S 12 S 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 18 19 18 21  
MIX HGT (FT)....3200 2900 2700 2100 1100 1900  
MIXING WIND......S 26 S 30 S 35 S 36 S 33 S 37  
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 4 4  
ADI.............65 40 46 47 30 41  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.83 87 91 73 38 69  
 

 
FORECASTER...WILSON  
REQUESTED BY...BRENT TRIPLETT  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1906460.1/RNK  
.DELDT 04/18/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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