219  
FNUS71 KRNK 061745  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST ASPECT 70 ACRES...NC STATE PARKS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
1245 PM EST THU DEC 6 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EST ON DECEMBER 06.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIN  
CIRRUS OVERHEAD, THEN INCREASING THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 3PM.  
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. INVERSION SHOULD LIFT BY 11AM,  
THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY 5PM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FRIDAY BUT  
A LITTLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.  
 
THE INVERSION WILL LIFT FRIDAY MORNING BY 10AM, THEN START BY 5-6PM FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
THE LVORI FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE 3 INCREASING 5 BY 7AM SATURDAY.  
THE ADI WILL BE 1 FRIDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO 3 BY 8AM SATURDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................32 INCREASING TO 38 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........22 31 34 37 43  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............42 43 42 41 40  
RH..............35 35 37 40 43  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 7 7 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.0  
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW  
MIXNG WIND SPD..9 10 12 13 14  
LVORI...........2 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............28 31 35 38 37  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.  
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 15 MPH.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................6.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........35 37 56 44 31 27  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............39 38 36 36 35 34  
RH..............48 58 60 61 60 61  
20 FT WIND......S 4 S 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 3 W 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 5 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....1500 900 500 400 300 300  
MIXING WIND......SW 15 SW 15 SW 13 W 12 W 12 W 9  
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............7 7 8 8 5 4  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL LATE IN  
THE MORNING.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 2 TO 10 MPH.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................4 INCREASING TO 15 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 24 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 17 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........26 36 51 52 49 44  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............33 34 39 42 45 44  
RH..............67 67 58 56 53 52  
20 FT WIND......W 3 W 2 NW 3 NW 4 NW 4 NW 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 6 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 900 2100 2800 3200 3200  
MIXING WIND......W 3 W 5 NW 10 NW 8 NW 7 NW 7  
LVORI...........3 3 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............4 5 27 19 22 28  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
SATURDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.  
LIGHT WINDS.    
SUNDAY
 
 
SNOW WITH POSSIBLE RAIN OR SLEET AND LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
 
SNOW AND CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.  
NORTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...PERRY  
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1818798.0/RNK  
.DELDT 12/06/18  
 
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