028  
FNUS71 KRNK 170239  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JOHNSONS CREEK...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
1039 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2300 EDT ON MAY 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRIER WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS  
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AROUND  
5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE  
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE  
25 TO 35 PERCENT. FUELS LIKELY MOIST FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS  
OF AN INCH OF RECENT RAINFALL.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.  
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........WEST 2 TO 3 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (500 MPH-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................2.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........13 10 6 9 4 2 2  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............55 54 53 53 51 49 48  
RH..............70 73 75 76 79 85 89  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 3 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W W SW SW  
MIXNG WIND SPD..3 2 2 3 2 2 2  
LVORI...........3 4 3 4 4 4 4  
ADI.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........WEST 3 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 24 TO  
25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (108900 MPH-FT)  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 83.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........2 4 3 11 10 10  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............48 56 64 70 73 74  
RH..............90 75 54 42 36 33  
20 FT WIND......W 2 W 4 W 7 W 9 W 9 NW 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 14 18 18 20  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1000 4100 5900 6400 6400  
MIXING WIND.....W 3 W 8 W 18 W 24 W 24 NW 25  
LVORI...........5 3 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............2 10 69 78 81 85  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 9 74 140 154 160  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.  
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH BECOMING WEST 0 TO 8 MPH  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (131200 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO FAIR (14900 MPH-FT) EARLY  
IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO POOR (0 MPH-FT)  
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................114 DECREASING TO 4.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........7 6 7 14 28 25  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............73 67 62 58 56 53  
RH..............35 45 54 61 67 73  
20 FT WIND......NW 8 NW 3 W 2 W 1 W 1 W 0  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 12 7 3 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....5900 4800 2000 500 300 300  
MIXING WIND.....NW 25 NW 23 W 8 W 0 W 1 W 0  
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 4 4  
ADI.............114 10 4 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.151 112 17 0 0 0  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.  
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 0 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 20  
MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO EXCELLENT (95000 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................1 INCREASING TO 62 LATE IN THE MORNING  
DECREASING TO 50 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........25 39 52 62  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC  
CWR.............0 10 10 40  
TEMP............51 62 74 77  
RH..............81 63 46 42  
20 FT WIND......SW 0G4 SW 1G4 SW 4G10 SW 5G12  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 2400 6400 7100  
MIXING WIND.....SW 0 SW 6 W 17 SW 18  
LVORI...........6 2 1 1  
ADI.............0 16 58 63  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.0 13 109 127  
 

 
FORECASTER...SAVA  
REQUESTED BY...LARRY SHAW DIV3  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2212202.0/RNK  
.DELDT 05/16/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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