236
FNUS71 KRNK 181103
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR GREENE PRESCRIBED BURN...N C FOREST SERVICE DISTRICT 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT THU APR 18 2019
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT THE BURN SITE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE
MORNING INVERSION SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER 9 AM TO ALLOW GOOD MIXING
AND SMOKE DISPERSAL AFTERWARD. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD EXCEED 3000
FEET AGL BY THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (71100 MPH-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 60.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 6 OR VERY LOW TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........65 63 43 29 14 5 9 14 29 25 42 43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............56 56 56 58 61 63 65 65 66 67 67 66
RH..............68 71 74 72 71 68 65 65 65 64 63 64
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 12 17 17 17 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S
MIXNG WIND SPD..3 3 5 7 10 15 17 20 21 22 24 25
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............3 4 3 5 11 22 35 47 44 50 56 63
HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 1 1 4 10 18 27 37 49 59 70 82
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 26 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 33 TO 38 MPH
LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (79400 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO GOOD (32700 MPH-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................65 DECREASING TO 42 IN THE EVENING, THEN
INCREASING TO 48 LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING
TO 35 OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 46.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........50 72 92 95 97 96
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 30 40 60 80
TEMP............66 64 62 61 60 60
RH..............65 69 75 82 87 88
20 FT WIND......S 9 S 8 S 10 S 12 S 12 S 14
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 18 19 18 21
MIX HGT (FT)....3200 2900 2700 2100 1100 1900
MIXING WIND......S 26 S 30 S 35 S 36 S 33 S 37
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 4 4
ADI.............65 40 46 47 30 41
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.83 87 91 73 38 69
FORECASTER...WILSON
REQUESTED BY...BRENT TRIPLETT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1906460.1/RNK
.DELDT 04/18/19
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page