547
FNUS71 KRNK 221037
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR BACK CREEK WILDFIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
537 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0630 EST ON NOVEMBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH
LOWER RH. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH WETTING RAIN OVER
THE SITE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING,
TAPERING OFF BEFORE NOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......100 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 16
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (49700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................5 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 53 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 92 90 87 80 81 83 61 43 41 32 27
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF SCT ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RNF
TSTM COV........
CWR.............80 100 30 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............53 53 53 55 58 60 60 60 60 60 58 55
RH..............100 97 100 94 83 77 73 68 66 63 65 73
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 6 6 6 10 12 12 11 10 8 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.8 1.0 1.6 2.8 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 1.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
MIXNG WIND SPD..3 5 7 10 13 15 16 16 15 14 12 10
LVORI...........9 7 8 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 3 3
ADI.............5 5 9 17 29 40 41 41 53 44 34 22
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.4 4 7 16 36 57 55 54 53 43 31 17
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4400 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 TO 4.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM
SKY (%).........36 25 35
WEATHER COV..... PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE FOG NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0
TEMP............51 46 41
RH..............81 88 94
20 FT WIND......NW 4G6 NW 1G6 W 1G5
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1100 1000
MIXING WIND......NW 10 NW 6 NW 6
LVORI...........4 6 6
ADI.............4 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.13 6 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 23 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 24 TO 31 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (103000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................7 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 113 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........18 17 12 14 15 14 14 13 10 6 3 3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............36 36 37 42 49 53 54 55 55 54 52 50
RH..............96 90 93 79 62 54 49 47 45 45 48 52
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 8 10 11 13 14 17 17 17 17 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.5
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW
MIXNG WIND SPD..6 6 8 13 17 23 28 31 31 28 24 20
LVORI...........6 5 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............7 7 12 31 51 76 98 113 108 95 79 57
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.6 5 9 24 46 73 98 118 110 93 75 50
FORECASTER...PERRY
REQUESTED BY...MARCUS SEWELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526163.4/RNK
.DELDT 11/22/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MARCUS.SEWELL@USDA.GOV
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