034
FNUS72 KILM 131004
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR ORTON CREEK RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
604 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
DISCUSSION
MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES BY. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE EAST, INCREASING TO NEAR 10 MPH AFTER SUNRISE. THERE
WILL BE AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ~12-1P WHICH COULD SHIFT WINDS TO
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING COULD BE ~15-17 MPH BEFORE DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
MAX MIXING HGT......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 14 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (48776 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MAX ADI.............62.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........50 42 20 24 27 31 33 21 19 28 33 38
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............61 62 65 69 71 73 74 75 75 75 76 74
RH..............80 80 73 65 60 56 56 55 57 58 57 61
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 1.7 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E SE E E SE SE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 14 14 12 9 9 9 9 9 8 8
STABILITY.......A A A A B B B B B B B B
LVORI...........4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............13 13 31 62 52 45 45 45 44 42 34 30
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.7 8 24 49 43 37 38 38 37 35 28 25
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...006 006 006 006 006 005 005 005 999 999 999 990
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIN MIXING HGT......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 7 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (2267 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........9.
MIN ADI.............3.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........30 29 26 32 29 31 18 16 16 21 31 32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 0
TEMP............74 72 70 68 68 66 66 65 64 63 63 63
RH..............65 71 81 86 89 93 95 97 99 99 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE S SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE S S SW SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 9 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10
STABILITY.......F F F F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 6 6 6 8 9 9 9 9
ADI.............4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.22 14 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 5
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...990 990 987 987 987 985 985 985 980 980 980 979
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
MAX MIXING HGT......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 14
TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (186061 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........7.
MAX ADI.............191.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........36 42 57 30 42 20 7 8 15 14 13 17
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 62 64 68 71 73 74 76 77 77 78 77
RH..............100 99 92 76 64 58 52 46 42 39 36 34
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 9 9 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.5 6.0 6.8 7.2 8.1 7.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW NW NW NW NW W W NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 15 14 14 14 15 17 17 21 23 21
STABILITY.......A A B B B B B B B B B B
LVORI...........7 7 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............10 11 25 34 43 56 79 116 127 159 191 168
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 6 19 27 34 46 67 104 117 150 186 162
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR GD VGD VGD EXL EXL EXL
SFC PRES (IN)...979 979 980 980 980 979 979 979 976 976 976 976
FORECASTER...WARNER
REQUESTED BY...NATHAN BURMESTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613521.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/13/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NATHAN.BURMESTER@TNC.ORG
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