603  
FNUS72 KILM 170954  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNIPER ROAD 2...NC FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
554 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 EDT ON AUGUST 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST  
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY,  
THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD  
INCREASE FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MAX MIXING HGT......6300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 17 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6  
TO 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (75087 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........5.  
MAX ADI.............69.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........60 60 63 66 69 66 64 61 60 60 59  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............69 70 73 75 78 80 81 82 82 82 81  
RH..............95 93 85 78 72 67 64 62 61 61 62  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.3 4.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE NE NE NE N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 21 20 20 20 18 10 14 7 6 6  
STABILITY.......C C C C C C C C C C C  
LVORI...........5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2  
ADI.............17 30 41 55 66 69 42 58 30 26 23  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.16 24 32 47 64 75 50 73 40 36 28  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR FR GD GD FR GD PR PR PR  
SFC PRES (IN)...984 989 989 989 991 991 991 989 989 989 988  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIN MIXING HGT......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (1270 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........6.  
MIN ADI.............2.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........60 61 62 55 48 40 36 32 28 29 31 33  
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............80 78 75 74 73 71 71 70 69 68 67 67  
RH..............66 72 78 82 84 87 87 89 91 92 93 94  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 8 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 5  
STABILITY.......C E F F F F F F F F F F  
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
ADI.............18 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.17 12 6 5 5 6 4 3 2 2 2 1  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
SFC PRES (IN)...988 988 989 989 989 991 991 991 991 991 991 991  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX MIXING HGT......5700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......MARGINAL (33587 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........7.  
MAX ADI.............42.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........30 29 27 30 38 45  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC  
TEMP............67 69 76 80 83 81  
RH..............95 90 70 60 56 59  
20 FT WIND......NE 3 NE 3 NE 4 NE 4 E 4 SE 5  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 6 6 6 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 600 2100 4500 5700 4000  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 E 6 E 6 SE 8  
STABILITY.......F A A A A A  
LVORI...........6 6 3 1 1 1  
ADI.............3 6 15 33 41 41  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 4 12 26 33 32  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
SFC PRES (IN)...29.91 29.94 29.94 29.97 29.96 29.96  
 

 
FORECASTER...MORGAN  
REQUESTED BY...KEITH MONEY F-BAN (T)  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2216688.5/ILM  
.DELDT 08/17/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL KEITH.MONEY@NCAGR.GOV  
 
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