614  
FNUS72 KILM 141144  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TF10...TWIN CREEKS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
744 AM EDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 14.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING  
SOME LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER  
AIR WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS NONE.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MAX MIXING HGT......3400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 22 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (60785 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........3.  
MAX ADI.............50.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........12 13 14 16 19 22 18 15 11  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10  
TEMP............64 69 72 74 75 75 75 75 75  
RH..............71 62 56 54 52 52 52 53 55  
APARNT TMP (F)..64 69 72 74 75 75 75 75 75  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 6 7 9 10 11 12 12 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 9 12 14 15 18 18 19 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 7 7 7 8 16 17 20 22  
STABILITY.......C C C C D D D D D  
LVORI...........3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............22 19 22 23 21 40 42 47 50  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.17 17 20 23 28 52 53 59 61  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR GD  
SFC PRES (IN)...011 011 011 011 011 000 000 000 000  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 22 MPH DECREASING TO 10  
TO 11 MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIN MIXING HGT......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 24 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25  
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.  
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (18429 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........3.  
MIN ADI.............18.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........19 28 36 44 53 61 70 73 76 75 75 74  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 30 30 30 40 40 40 30 30 30 30  
TEMP............73 70 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 65 65  
RH..............60 67 77 78 79 80 81 82 82 83 83 82  
APARNT TMP (F)..73 70 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 65 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 19 18 17  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 24 24 24 25 23 23 24 25 21 20  
STABILITY.......D D D D D D D D D D D D  
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............52 27 27 22 27 23 21 26 27 23 19 18  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.60 46 36 30 32 33 29 31 34 33 21 18  
VENTRATE CAT....GD FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
SFC PRES (IN)...000 000 992 992 992 992 992 992 984 984 984 984  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS LIKELY IN  
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
WEST 7 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MAX MIXING HGT......3600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 21 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (66654 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........3.  
MAX ADI.............48.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........72 67 71 75 79 75  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 40 40 60 60 60  
TEMP............64 64 68 74 73 71  
RH..............83 80 71 58 60 63  
APARNT TMP (F)..64 64 68 74 73 71  
20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 8 SW 8 SW 9 W 9 W 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 13 14 14 14 13  
MIX HGT (FT)....1000 1000 2500 3600 3600 2400  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18 W 15 W 21 W 18 W 17 W 17  
STABILITY.......D D D D D D  
LVORI...........3 3 3 1 1 1  
ADI.............16 19 45 48 46 35  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.18 15 53 67 63 40  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD POOR  
SFC PRES (IN)...29.84 29.82 29.82 29.82 29.74 29.74  
 

 
FORECASTER...BACON  
REQUESTED BY...B BARNHILL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2108360.2/ILM  
.DELDT 04/14/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL BRIANBARNHILL910@YAHOO.COM  
 
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