123
FNUS72 KILM 080947
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR ORTON CREEK RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
547 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON MAY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
DISCUSSION
A BRIEF DRYING TREND SETS IN TODAY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT 700-800
FT MAY CREEP IN EARLY THIS MORNING, IF THEY HAVEN'T ALREADY, BUT
SHOULD ERODE AWAY BY 8-9 AM EDT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A LIGHT BREEZE OUT OF
THE NNE WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING,
VEERING CONSIDERABLY MORE TO THE SE BY 1-2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEABREEZE. WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 12 MPH.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DRY AIR ARRIVES AGAIN TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......MARGINAL (39844 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........5.
MAX ADI.............48.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........29 34 27 31 34 37 39 41 43 41 40 38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............55 55 55 59 63 68 69 71 71 71 71 70
RH..............96 95 94 81 71 62 57 51 47 48 50 53
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NE NE NE E E E SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.2 3.1 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N NE NE NE E E E SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 10 10 10
STABILITY.......A A B B B B B B B B B B
LVORI...........5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............12 12 22 33 35 44 48 44 43 45 40 38
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.6 7 17 26 27 36 40 36 36 37 33 31
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...991 991 999 999 999 003 003 003 000 000 000 998
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIN MIXING HGT......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (3198 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........6.
MIN ADI.............4.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........44 50 56 60 63 66 66 66 66 71 76 82
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............69 68 66 65 64 63 63 63 63 63 62 63
RH..............58 64 71 75 77 80 81 83 85 86 87 88
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.8 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE S S SE SE SE SE S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8
STABILITY.......E E F F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6
ADI.............7 7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.22 19 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...998 998 999 999 999 000 000 000 997 997 997 994
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 18
TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (72133 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........5.
MAX ADI.............74.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........80 78 76 77 78 79 82 83 91 91 73 70
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............63 65 67 70 71 72 73 73 74 74 74 74
RH..............90 90 87 81 80 78 79 79 77 78 79 77
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 2 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.3 4 4 6 9 11 12 12 13 13 12 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.0 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 14 15 17 18 20 22 20 21 20
STABILITY.......B B B B B C C C C C C C
LVORI...........5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............8 8 10 30 36 45 52 61 74 59 67 47
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.3 3 5 23 28 38 44 56 72 53 62 38
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD FR GD PR
SFC PRES (IN)...994 994 997 997 997 997 997 997 992 992 992 987
FORECASTER...BOATMAN
REQUESTED BY...NATHAN BURMESTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613124.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/08/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NATHAN.BURMESTER@TNC.ORG
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