056
FNUS72 KILM 211353
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR OVER LYON...STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
953 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS NONE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MAX MIXING HGT......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (98464 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........3.
MAX ADI.............113.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.40 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........47 54 45 55 65 59 45 29
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 20 30 40 30 20 10
CHC OF LTNG (%).10 10 20 30 40 30 20 10
TEMP............88 90 92 93 94 94 94 93
RH..............70 63 57 56 55 55 54 54
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 14 14 15 17 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 3.8 4.5 5.0 4.1 4.0 4.1 3.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 20 20 20 22 23 24
STABILITY.......B C B C C C B C
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............78 67 104 81 74 82 113 87
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.64 69 88 98 80 88 95 90
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
SFC PRES (IN)...991 991 991 991 985 985 985 982
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 19 MPH.
MIN MIXING HGT......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 25 MPH.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (8096 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MIN ADI.............13.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.10 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........29 43 21 48 39 35 56 37 36 50 50 57
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
CHC OF LTNG (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
TEMP............92 89 85 83 81 81 81 81 80 80 80 79
RH..............55 59 68 75 78 80 81 81 81 81 83 83
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.19 19 17 17 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.25 25 24 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 18 17
STABILITY.......E D E D E E D E E D D D
LVORI...........2 1 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 4
ADI.............17 34 16 19 14 14 19 14 13 18 16 15
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.83 62 38 18 16 17 12 9 10 11 9 8
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...982 982 984 984 984 985 985 985 985 985 985 985
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 19 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (130340 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MAX ADI.............97.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.20 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........56 57 51 57 57 67 70 74 47 73 69 60
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20
TEMP............79 79 80 84 87 89 91 93 94 94 94 92
RH..............84 86 87 79 73 67 62 57 54 53 53 56
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 14 15 17 18 18 19 19 19 19
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.2 1.9 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.7 4.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 20 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
STABILITY.......C C C C C C D D C D D D
LVORI...........4 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............12 24 47 68 81 90 70 72 97 73 74 68
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.8 19 38 64 86 101 113 119 121 124 130 107
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
SFC PRES (IN)...985 985 988 988 988 990 990 990 988 988 988 985
FORECASTER...BACON
REQUESTED BY...SAFETY OFFICER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617870.0/ILM
.DELDT 07/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL THOMAS.CRATE@NCPARKS.GOV
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