064
FNUS72 KILM 310906
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR COVINGTON DRIVE FIRE...HORRY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
506 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 EDT ON MARCH 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
DISCUSSION
AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE. TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST AROUND 0.25".
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
MID-WEEK IN TURN ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECASTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......POOR (24400 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........8.
MAX ADI.............31.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.30 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........86 80 73 72 71 70 63 55 47 45 43 41
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).30 30 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10 20
CHC OF LTNG (%).30 30 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10 20
TEMP............64 64 64 67 69 71 72 73 75 74 75 74
RH..............98 99 99 93 90 86 82 79 76 77 75 77
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 3 5 5 6 7 7 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW W SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 13 14 12 9 10 12 13 13 15 15
STABILITY.......C C C C D D D D B B C C
LVORI...........8 8 8 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............10 9 10 11 16 13 17 21 29 19 31 20
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.6 5 6 11 13 11 16 21 23 15 24 16
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...991 991 989 989 989 988 988 988 982 982 982 975
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 5 MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN MIXING HGT......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15
TO 16 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (6159 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........6.
MIN ADI.............9.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.50 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........54 67 79 80 80 81 76 71 67 60 54 48
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF THDR (%).30 40 50 50 50 20 20 20 20 20 20 0
CHC OF LTNG (%).30 40 50 50 50 20 20 20 20 20 20 0
TEMP............73 70 69 68 67 66 66 66 65 65 64 63
RH..............80 87 91 91 93 92 92 92 93 94 95 95
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 17 18 14 14 17 17 18 17 16 15
STABILITY.......D D D D D E E E E E E E
LVORI...........4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
ADI.............15 15 15 16 12 9 12 12 12 12 11 10
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.10 8 8 8 6 7 10 13 14 13 11 11
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...975 975 972 972 972 978 978 978 980 980 980 984
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT.
MAX MIXING HGT......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 8
TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (50179 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........5.
MAX ADI.............60.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.10 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........50 46 31 17 4 5
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10 10 0 0 0
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 10 10 0 0 0
TEMP............63 62 65 69 73 74
RH..............95 91 77 64 54 51
20 FT WIND......W 5 NW 5 N 6 N 6 N 5 E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 10 10 8 7
MIX HGT (FT)....800 1000 2000 2800 4000 3800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 N 16 N 16 N 14 N 13 N 9
STABILITY.......D B B B B B
LVORI...........5 4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............15 21 42 48 60 44
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.11 16 33 39 50 37
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR POOR
SFC PRES (IN)...29.84 29.92 29.92 30.00 30.01 30.01
FORECASTER...OLIVA
REQUESTED BY...LOREN WALLACE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2508269.15/ILM
.DELDT 03/31/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL WALLACE.LOREN@HORRYCOUNTYSC.GOV,HODGE.SAMUEL@HORRYCOUNTYSC.GOV,NORKET.MICHAEL@HORRYCOUNTYSC.GOV
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