641
FNUS72 KMHX 031712
FWSMHX
SPOT FORECAST FOR D & J FARM LANE FIRE...NCFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
112 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1300 EDT ON JULY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.
DISCUSSION
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING.
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING 5-10 MPH SE'RLY WINDS AND 10-15 MPH GUSTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 5-6 PM. AFTERWARDS WINDS WILL
QUICKLY EASE ACROSS THE AREA EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEN
BECOME S'RLY TOMORROW MORNING AT 5-10 MPH WITH WINDS
ONCE AGAIN BECOMING SE'RLY AROUND 1PM AND GUSTING TO
ABOUT 15 MPH BEHIND THE SEABREEZE.
MIN RHS TODAY FALL TO BETWEEN 35-40% ACROSS THE INNER
COASTAL PLAIN, 45-50% ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........MAX 34845 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 1.
ADI.................MAX 41.
STABILITY CLASS.....1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SFC PRESSURE........30.07 TO 30.12 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........36 38 35 29 25
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............86 86 86 86 85
RH..............48 48 46 46 48
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 8 10 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.4 5.7 5.0 4.7 4.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 8 10 10 8
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............31 41 40 38 41
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.25 33 35 32 35
SFC PRES (IN)...012 011 010 008 007
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
VENT RATE...........MIN 1494 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 8.
ADI.................MIN 2.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SFC PRESSURE........30.02 TO 30.06 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........21 13 8 9 11 12 17 27 32 35 40 43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............84 81 79 76 73 71 69 69 68 67 67 67
RH..............51 58 63 69 76 83 88 91 93 95 95 94
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.8 2.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 3
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 8 8 7
ADI.............42 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.35 21 7 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1
SFC PRES (IN)...006 006 006 006 005 005 005 005 005 004 003 002
INDEPENDENCE DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5
TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
VENT RATE...........MAX 41055 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 7.
ADI.................MAX 49.
STABILITY CLASS.....3.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SFC PRESSURE........29.91 TO 30.02 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........42 39 36 35 36 32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............69 74 81 88 92 92
RH..............91 81 65 54 47 47
20 FT WIND......N 0 N 0 S 3 S 5 S 6 S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 9 15
MIX HGT (FT)....400 700 2800 4600 5300 4100
TRANSPORT WIND..N 3 S 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 S 10
LVORI...........7 4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............2 4 21 34 42 49
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 3 17 27 36 41
SFC PRES (IN)...30.02 30.02 30.02 30.00 29.96 29.92
FORECASTER...FUCHECK
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW HAUNSPERGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417314.0/MHX
.DELDT 07/03/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MATTHEW.HAUNSPERGER@NCAGR.GOV
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