473  
FNUS72 KMHX 171005  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR C 50 LITTLE RD...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
505 AM EST MON FEB 17 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EST ON FEBRUARY 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH  
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE  
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO  
LINGER OVER EASTERN NC. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE  
AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 14 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 40135 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 6.  
ADI.................MAX 40.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.10 TO 30.16 INHG.  
 
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............89 88 84 75 67 58 49 45 44 42 41 39  
WEATHER COV........SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.......RW  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............46 46 48 52 55 57 59 61 61 61 61 59  
RH.................89 93 89 80 72 67 60 56 56 58 58 62  
20 FT WIND DIR.....N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 5 9 9 9 9 14 14 14 9 9  
MIX HGT (KFT)......0.3 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR....NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....8 8 10 13 14 13 12 10 10 10 10 12  
LVORI..............5 6 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI................8 9 13 23 31 32 40 37 36 36 37 37  
HAINES INDEX.......2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..2 2 11 23 38 40 39 38 36 36 38 36  
STABILITY CLASS....D D D E E E B B B B B B  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3  
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 804 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 7.  
ADI.................MIN 1.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.18 TO 30.23 INHG.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............37 36 38 41 45 49 52 54 56 59 62 65  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............57 55 53 52 51 51 50 49 49 49 48 48  
RH.................67 72 74 74 77 77 83 89 89 89 93 93  
20 FT WIND DIR.....NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N  
20 FT WIND SPD.....6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.... 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)......2.7 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR....NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....13 13 12 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 3 3  
LVORI..............3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7  
ADI................5 6 5 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..33 29 20 12 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1  
STABILITY CLASS....B B B B B B F F F F F F  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE  
MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH LATE  
IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATE  
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 57729 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 10.  
ADI.................MAX 41.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.06 TO 30.17 INHG.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%)............68 70 68 66 67 77  
WEATHER COV........ S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE.......NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............47 53 61 69 71 69  
RH.................96 95 84 69 67 76  
20 FT WIND.........N 3 NE 3 SE 3 S 6 SW 7 SW 7  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 5 5 14 14  
MIX HGT (FT).......300 300 300 2700 3800 3700  
TRANSPORT WIND.....NE 2 NE 1 S 1 SW 10 SW 15 SW 12  
LVORI..............8 9 6 3 1 3  
ADI................2 1 1 24 41 31  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 4 4 4 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..1 0 0 29 57 42  
STABILITY CLASS....F F F C C C  
 

 
FORECASTER...FREDERICK  
REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2002390.0/MHX  
.DELDT 02/17/20  
.EMAIL DAVID.L.NELSON@USDA.GOV  
 
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