543  
FNUS72 KMHX 140906  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HD...USMC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
506 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON APRIL 14.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON
 
 
THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS AND WARM TEMPS WILL  
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RH VALUES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AS LOW  
AS 20% THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25  
MPH COMBINED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC  
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SE COAST TODAY. TOMORROW, A  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE  
DAY AND STALL, EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON  
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE  
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO  
14 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO  
THE SOUTH 15 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 37490 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 4.  
ADI.................MAX 47.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............50 52 58 65 72 75 76 77 77 75 75  
RH..............83 77 64 50 38 31 29 28 25 27 32  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW W SW S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 4 3 3 5 7 9 11 12 12  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 9 14 14 18 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N SW SW S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 6 5 5 5 7 9 13 14 15 16  
LVORI...........4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2  
ADI.............8 6 4 6 13 25 33 47 39 31 29  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.3 2 2 4 10 19 27 37 34 24 23  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 5979 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 4.  
ADI.................MIN 10.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........2 4 4 7 11 14 13 11 10 8 4 3  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............72 69 66 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 58 58  
RH..............41 49 56 63 67 70 72 75 78 80 80 80  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 11 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 14 15 15 17 17 18 18 17 17 16 16  
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4  
ADI.............11 12 10 13 15 15 16 16 15 15 11 11  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.11 6 7 6 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 8  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 40365 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 4.  
ADI.................MAX 42.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........4 1 4 4 3 12  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............58 62 70 78 82 81  
RH..............80 72 59 48 44 46  
20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 6 W 8 SW 9 S 10 S 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 9 14 14 14 18  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 1400 2900 3200 2000  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 15 W 15 W 13 W 12 SW 13 SW 15  
LVORI...........4 3 2 1 1 1  
ADI.............10 16 24 41 42 37  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.7 8 18 33 40 29  
 

 
FORECASTER...KEARNS  
REQUESTED BY...J CUMBO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2410682.0/MHX  
.DELDT 04/14/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL JOSHUA.CUMBO@USMC.MIL  
 
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