521  
FNUS72 KMHX 041104  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE FIRE...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
704 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JULY 04.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE  
COAST AND WEAK TROUGHING INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,  
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE  
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH, BECOMING  
SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 5400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 76245 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 4.  
ADI.................MAX 62.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.97 TO 30.01 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............38 41 46 48 49 52 53 49 40 35  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............81 84 86 87 87 88 88 88 89 88  
RH.................86 80 74 69 67 67 66 65 64 66  
20 FT WIND DIR.....SW S S SE SE SE SE SE S S  
20 FT WIND SPD.....3 3 3 3 5 6 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 5 5 5 9 9 9 9  
MIX HGT (KFT)......2.2 3.1 3.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR....SW SW SW SW S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD....17 14 10 8 9 13 15 15 15 15  
LVORI..............4 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 1  
ADI................47 53 49 45 39 38 46 62 59 58  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..37 43 41 39 47 62 76 73 68 65  
STABILITY CLASS....F F E E B B B B B B  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 3909 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 6.  
ADI.................MIN 5.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.98 TO 30.05 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............38 43 46 48 51 53 57 65 68 68 67 67  
WEATHER COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP...............86 84 82 80 79 78 78 78 78 77 76 76  
RH.................70 74 79 85 88 94 91 91 91 94 94 95  
20 FT WIND DIR.....S S S S S S S S S S S SE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4  
20 FT WIND GUST....9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)......3.7 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR....S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD....17 20 21 20 18 16 14 13 12 12 12 12  
LVORI..............3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6  
ADI................61 26 28 22 12 11 10 6 5 5 5 8  
HAINES INDEX.......4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..63 61 53 39 25 12 11 10 9 7 6 4  
STABILITY CLASS....C C C C C C E E E E E E  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH  
15 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 92460 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 8.  
ADI.................MAX 58.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.05 TO 30.09 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%)............65 61 59 61 66 64  
WEATHER COV........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE.......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV...........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP...............76 79 83 86 87 87  
RH.................98 94 77 68 65 65  
20 FT WIND.........S 4 S 4 S 5 S 6 S 8 S 9  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 5 9 14 14  
MIX HGT (FT).......1000 2300 3700 4600 5200 4900  
TRANSPORT WIND.....S 13 S 14 S 12 S 12 SW 16 S 18  
LVORI..............8 4 3 3 1 1  
ADI................8 29 29 35 50 57  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..12 32 41 54 83 91  
STABILITY CLASS....E E E B B B  
 

 
FORECASTER...DAIL  
REQUESTED BY...BERT PLANTE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1911778.0/MHX  
.DELDT 07/04/19  
.EMAIL C_PLANTE@FWS.GOV  
 
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