243  
FNUS72 KMHX 300954  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK SWAMP FIRE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
554 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 EDT ON MAY 30.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION.  
 
A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF WETTING  
RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN  
NATURE BRINGING A THREAT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG WINDS (60+  
MPH GUSTS), HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. GENERAL TIMING  
FOR THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 9PM TODAY. LIGHT  
SW'RLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-20  
MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A RENEWED  
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY  
ONWARDS, EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDING  
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  
   
TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 20  
TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 88435 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 6.  
ADI.................MAX 88.  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.64 TO 29.85 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........80 71 66 61 53 49 48 47 46 50 58 63  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............69 69 70 72 73 76 78 80 82 82 82 81  
RH..............97 97 93 90 87 79 74 69 65 65 65 67  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 9 9 9 14 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W W W W W W W SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 13 13 15 15 16 16 17 18 20 22  
LVORI...........6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............6 8 21 24 43 52 68 61 81 88 74 82  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.4 8 16 19 37 42 56 49 68 74 80 88  
SFC PRES (IN)...985 985 985 985 983 981 978 975 972 969 966 964  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
EVENING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
AROUND 6 MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15  
TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 7014 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 5.  
ADI.................MIN 7.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.62 TO 29.65 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........69 82 88 86 81 79 62 30 13 11 5 2  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC SCH  
TEMP............79 77 75 73 71 70 68 67 65 63 62 61  
RH..............72 76 79 81 84 84 87 84 87 87 84 84  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 9  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 18 17 17 16 18 21 20 17 15 15 15  
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4  
ADI.............51 16 15 15 14 16 19 9 8 7 7 7  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.42 13 10 9 9 10 13 18 9 7 7 7  
SFC PRES (IN)...963 962 962 962 962 963 964 965 965 965 964 963  
   
SATURDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.  
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 7600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 26 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 84180 MPH-FT INCREASING TO MAX 199984  
MPH-FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............MAX 4.  
ADI.................MAX 129.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.55 TO 29.69 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........1 1 2 10 33 47  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC  
TEMP............61 63 71 76 80 81  
RH..............81 75 59 50 44 44  
20 FT WIND......W 6 W 6 W 8 W 10 W 11 W 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 14 18 18 18  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1300 3000 5400 7600 5800  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 W 17 W 20 W 23 W 26 W 24  
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............6 29 72 98 129 104  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.6 22 58 124 200 137  
SFC PRES (IN)...29.65 29.69 29.67 29.63 29.57 29.55  
 
 
FORECASTER...FUCHECK  
REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2514884.1/MHX  
.DELDT 05/30/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL VICTORIA.PAYNE@USDA.GOV,DAVID.L.NELSON@USDA.GOV  
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