947
FXUS61 KRNK 170714
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
214 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, RESULTING
IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. A BRIEF COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WESTERLY TO WSW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION
AND BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL. CURRENTLY SOME STRATUS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WAS GRADUALLY ERODING ON THE SOUTH SIDE,
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK CAD SETUP IS IN PLACE,
AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT TO
NEAR ZERO. AN ACTIVE LLJ WILL BRING WIND SHEAR TO THE AREA AS
WINDS DROP OFF AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT.
TONIGHT, LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE, WHICH IS ABOUT
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
MOST.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
2. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES ON
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE.
2. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, MAKING FOR
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
WILL START THURSDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEGINNING DURING EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AS WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH INCREASE IN SPEED, CARRYING IN DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION. THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
FALL THURSDAY NIGHT, AND OCCUR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG & EAST OF HIGHWAY 29, DUE TO A SURGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH. AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL, TOTALS ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE MOST
LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 0.5" TO 0.75" WHERE MOISTURE IS MOST
ABUNDANT. FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER, LOWER
TOTALS ARE FORECAST, WITH A 60% TO 70% CHANCE OF THESE AREAS
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.25". WHILE THE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ANYWHERE WITHIN THE SERVICE AREA ARE
VERY LOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY, WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING THROUGH DAWN AS
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. WINDS SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES
RANGING FROM 35 MPH TO LOCALLY 50 MPH BY LATE MORNING, BEFORE
SPEEDS GRADUALLY SETTLE DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COOLER
AIR WILL CAUSE RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS,
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIDGES OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MODEST GIVEN VERY LIMITED REMAINING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SETTLED
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. GIVEN INCREASED SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DECEMBER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
1. WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. LOOKING TO
SUNDAY, ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION, MAKING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH LOW RAINFALL TOTALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, WITH MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME LOWER
VFR/BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY RETREATING
NORTH. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST LATER TODAY TO 15-25 KNOTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE LLJ.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS, WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SUB- VFR FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH VFR EAST,
BECOMING VFR SATURDAY AREAWIDE. STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY AS WELL, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...SH
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