998
FXUS61 KRNK 301856
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL FORECASTING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECASTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
WITH DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FORECASTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION, ANY RAINFALL IS FORECASTED TO
REMAIN BRIEF IN DURATION, WITH MOST TOTALS OF LESS THAN 0.10".
LIKEWISE, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE SOUNDING FROM THE 12Z BALLOON,
THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED AND WISPY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MODESTLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND SHORE, BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTS THAT MAY REACH
15-20KT FROM OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME CALM BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY, THOUGH LWB AND LYH MAY BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FORM TUESDAY, AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME
PREDOMINANT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE RETURN TO DRY VFR
CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...VFJ
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