651
FXUS61 KRNK 131411
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1011 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TODAY, FINALLY PUSHING
EAST TO THE COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1010 AM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, AND MOST OF THE CWA IS CLOUD
FREE, EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE COVERAGE OUT WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AS WARMING BEGINS THIS MORNING AND WE
LOOK TOWARDS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL TOASTY DAYS.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL BE WEAKENING/ENDING TOWARD
DAWN AS OUTFLOW MOVES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH.
FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS
MORNING AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE UP EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH COVERAGE OVERALL SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED, WITH
BEST COVERAGE EAST OF HIGHWAY 29. DURING THE EVENING, SHOWERS SHOULD
FADE AS MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SUPPORT ALOFT HEAD TOWARD
THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STAY MAINLY TYPICAL OF MID JULY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOUNTAINS, TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90 EAST.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT OVERALL WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
DURING THIS PERIOD, UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW TUESDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES, BUT FOR OUR AREA SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
SILENCED, THOUGH A ROGUE STORM COULD FIRE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY LOOKING DRIER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED WITH WARMING ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO A FEW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE/NC
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE 15-20 POPS THERE, WITH DRY
ELSEWHERE. COULD BE A CASE WHERE CAPPING INVERSION COOLS IN THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY SO STORMS MAY BE FAVORED MORE IN THE DUSK
WEDNESDAY THAN IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOUNTAINS TUESDAY TO LOWER 90S EAST.
AT THE MOMENT DEWPOINTS STAY SUBDUED ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES
BELOW 100 TUESDAY IN THE PIEDMONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT AIRMASS IS STAGNANT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE
60S, WITH SOME CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA.
GETTING HOTTER WEDNESDAY AS 5H HEIGHTS REACH 594DM. GIVEN A WEAK
FLOW, AIRMASS WILL FEEL MORE OPPRESSIVE STILL DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAINS, EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 80S ABOVE
3000 FEET, TO LOWER 90S EAST. HEAT INDICES APPROACH 100 A COUPLE
HOURS WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND POSSIBLY
ROANOKE/LEXINGTON, BUT STAY WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105.
TEMPS WED NIGHT WARMER WITH STAGNANT AIRMASS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LACKLUSTER THREAT OF STORMS
AND TEMPS THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE FROM EAST TO WEST MAY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
BY SATURDAY. STILL, EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE FOR MID-JULY BY 3-5 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT REACHING AROUND 100F FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE
WORKWEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE, RESULTING IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOST
OF THESE WILL BE THE SPOTTY, HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY, HOWEVER WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY, WHICH MAY BRING
BETTER-ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT MONDAY...
LOW CLOUDS AT LWB WILL BE SCATTERED OUT AROUND 12Z, WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. A FEW STORMS WILL FIRE UP
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT IN
THE PIEDMONT. AT THE MOMENT EXPECT VCTS AT DAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE ON THE AIRPORTS RECEIVING A THUNDERSTORM.
WILL SEE VFR TONIGHT, BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG MAY OCCUR AT
LWB AFTER 08-09Z.
WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM/AVERAGE ON SHOWERS/STORMS AND FOG,
BUT HIGHER ON VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY, AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES. CANNOT
RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT LWB, BUT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS, FOG
MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO FORM. STORMS WILL BE LACKING UNDER THE
RIDGE. APPEARS NEXT TROUGH AND FRONT ARRIVE TOWARD FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS AND NEXT SUB-VFR THREAT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...VFJ/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM/RCS/WP
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