708
FXUS61 KRNK 040646
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
246 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING
FOG CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS SHALLOW AND A MAJORITY OF IT
WILL BURN OFF BY 10AM.
WILL KEEP A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN NOON AND
6PM. LITTLE TO NO LIFT OR FORCING, BUT CAPES MAY REACH 500 J/KG.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. HREF,3KM NAM AND HIRESARW GUIDANCE HAS LOW CLOUDS FILLING
IN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT.THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS TODAY OR TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TO PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NBM
WILL BE USED AS STARTING GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
2. A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT FROM CANADA AND
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY AND WILL BRING THE FIRST TRUE TASTE OF FALL FOR THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AS MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED, BUT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT SHOULD SEE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB
WINDS AT 30KTS-40KTS WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST BRING GUSTS IN THE 20MPH
RANGE WITH SOME 30MPH GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POTENTIALLY SOME PATCH FROST TO START THE WEEK.
2. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SHOULD STILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SEE WINDS TAPER ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
BEST CHANCE AT ANY FROST WILL BE ON MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SPOTS MAY DIP TO
AROUND FREEZING. WINDS MAY STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST, SO FOR NOW ONLY SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
SPRING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S IN THE EAST. THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY EVEN PRODUCE SOME SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS
EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH ONLY A
VERY ISOLATED CHANCE AT A MOUNTAIN SHOWER ALONG THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
IFR/LIFR FOG CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NEW AND
GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS SHALLOW
AND A MAJORITY OF IT WILL BURN OFF BY 10AM/14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
WILL KEEP A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN NOON AND
6PM. LITTLE TO NO LIFT OR FORCING, BUT CAPES MAY REACH 500 J/KG.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. HREF, 3KM NAM AND HIRESARW GUIDANCE HAS MVFR TO IFR LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT.
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR VISIBILITY AND WIND.
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE VFR WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NIGHTLY MVFR TO LIFR FOG IN
THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE RIVERS.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER, BUT NOTICEABLY COLDER, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...AMS/PM
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