149
FXUS61 KRNK 161738
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1238 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THE REPRIEVE FROM A STRETCH OF ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SETTLED OVER THE REGION, WITH THE CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. AFTER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY,
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK TOMORROW,
INITIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THEN FOR THE PIEDMONT BY MID-
MORNING. DESPITE THE COLD COVER, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT, WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST. MID 50S IN THE EAST TO MID 40S IN THE WEST DURING
THE DAY, AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TONIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TOMORROW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS,
HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT
WILL BE MORE OF A WARM WIND, THAN THE COLD WIND CHILLS FROM THE
PAST WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN,
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
2. COLDER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER WAVE EJECTS EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AMPLIFY
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST. IN RESPONSE,
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK THROUGH CANADA, WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF STATES. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY, WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE IN RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT.
TIMING OF THE FRONT DOES NOT FAVOR CONVECTION FOR OUR REGION, SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. AREAWIDE AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.50" ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS EAST, COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW JET
EXCEEDING 50KTS THAT WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTS
EXCEEDING 45MPH ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN FORECAST
GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
1. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 50S. A WEAK, MOSTLY DRY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF ITS
PASSAGE, FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. NO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK LIKELY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ENDING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY
FROM THE WEST, BRINGING BKN TO OVC SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS WILL STAY VFR.
MOSTLY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH TODAY, WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO
20 KNOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
HIGHEST FOR KBLF AND KLWB, WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 06Z OR SO FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, THROUGH MIDDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS, WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SUB- VFR FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH VFR EAST,
BECOMING VFR SATURDAY AREAWIDE. STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY AS WELL, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AS/WP
NEAR TERM...AS/WP
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...AS/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page