982
FXUS61 KRNK 082326
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN
TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN
TO START THE WORK WEEK.
TRANQUIL WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE
EVEN WARMER WITH LIGHTER WINDS. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. COLDEST TIME PERIOD WILL BE
TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST TO THE MOUNTAINS AS LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S.
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION, COURTESY OF A 150 KT
JET ALOFT (ABOUT 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING
TO NAEFS). THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY, WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOTHING STRONG IS EXPECTED.
EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A MESSY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN BRINGS SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE REGION AGAIN, WITH
PWATS BRIEFLY JUMPING CLOSE AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD, 00Z SUNDAY, 8PM EDT
SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET THIS
EVENING, WITH WINDS TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON SATURDAY,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS LIKELY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STRAY SHOWER/STORM MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND QUIET
WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES
IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING LIKELY SUB-VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS. RAIN CLEARS OUT BY MONDAY EVENING,
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
TO THE AREA. WINDS AGAIN INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. QUIET WEATHER
AND VFR CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA, BRINGING RAIN AND LIKELY SUB-VFR BACK TO THE
AREA.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/SH
AVIATION...DS/JCB
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