529
FXUS61 KRNK 090847
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
447 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND PROMOTING DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. WET GROUND FROM THURSDAY
EVENINGS SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN GROUND FOG THIS MORNING.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY PROMOTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC.
3. COOLER DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AREAWIDE TONIGHT WITH FROST
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WV AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH AS
BURKES GARDEN, VA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NOVA TO THE MID-MS VALLEY BISECTING
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST,
CROSSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...DEWPOINTS TAKING A
NOSE DIVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS
SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT OF NC, BUT SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY
WILL BE MUCH LOWER, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS REMOVED THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ENTIRELY FROM OUR
CWA...CONFINING THE THREAT TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
FORECAST AREA, DEWPOINTS FALLING FROM THE 50S INTO THE 30S BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW 40S PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S MAY PROMOTE FROST FORMATION FOR
PARTS OF WV AND WITHIN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH AS
BURKES GARDEN, VA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2. DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, PROMPTING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD, EVENTUALLY
MOVING OFFSHORE, WITH COOL EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA COMES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
SLOWLY START TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS, AS A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF STATES ALSO
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
HAVE A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AND OFF THE ATLANTIC,
WITH SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING ABOVE NORMAL PWATS
INTO THE APPALACHIANS, PWATS ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
THE 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
TUESDAY, BUT BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S IN THE WEST TO MID 70S IN THE EAST.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
2. SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING
TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL START TO MOVE NORTHWARD BY MONDAY, DRAWING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEEKEND
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY TUESDAY,
FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD, THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
CAROLINAS, AND BRINGING RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
IN THIS WEDGE PATTERN, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MOSTLY STABLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, AND SO THINKING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
STAY WEST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE MIDWEST, THINKING MUCH OF THE
DEEPER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH, AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW ITSELF, AND THUS LIMITED OVER THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
REDUCE DAYTIME HEATING, AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL
FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS. THAT ALL BEING SAID, THE FORECAST COULD AND
MOST LIKELY WILL CHANGE SOMEWHAT IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES,
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL
INFLUENCE RAINFALL TOTALS AND IMPACTS OVER THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE, AS SOUTHEASTERLY, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST NC AND INTO SOUTHWEST VA.
WITH THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND THE BROADER 500MB
PATTERN BECOMES MORE OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US,
AND EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, REACHING THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND THEN INTO VA BY THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA, EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AS DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR WRAPS INTO THE
AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY, WITH OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE, HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN THURSDAY EVENING, THE
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW
AND NOON/16Z FRIDAY. PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING CLEARING AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA MID-DAY. AS DRY
AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH, TRANSITION TO VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IMPACT TO LYH OR DAN.
PROB IS TOO LOW FOR RESTRICTIONS, BUT ADDED VCSH OR VCTS FOR
THESE TERMINALS. BY SUNSET EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO BE CLEAR.
WINDS THIS MORNING WERE NEAR CALM. EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS 15-20 KTS AREA POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CLEARING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING IMPROVEMENT
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS) EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM
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