046
FXUS61 KRNK 311703
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR
PROVIDING A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM AIR RETURNS LATER IN THE
WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
2) COOLER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM NEAR KNOXVILLE, TN,
THROUGH GA AND AL, AND THEN WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS
LINEAR MCS WAS ALONG A LINE OF VORTICITY ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OF
INTEREST. THIS FORCING ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS, AND LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, WE WERE LOCATED IN A BROAD WARM
SECTOR, AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN A COUPLE BOUTS OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING AND TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT,
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, AND TERRAIN INTERACTIONS. THIS EARLIER
ACTIVITY LAID DOWN A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND ALONG WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WILL HELP FUEL ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGINNING AROUND 2 PM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PER SPC, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT
OF 5) SOUTH AND EAST OF DANVILLE, MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. STRONG WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND DAYTIME
HEATING/BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL YIELD MUCAPES AROUND 750 TO
1000 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ROTATION,
BUT TORNADOES AND HAIL LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS. AT THIS TIME, A MESSY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE WITH
BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS LOOKS MOST LIKELY, AND THIS
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ABOUT 700 J/KG OF
DOWNDRAFT CAPE AVAILABLE ALREADY.
THIS MORNING'S KRNK SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT 1" FOR PWATS, WITH
GREENSBORO CLOSER TO 1.2". MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY PARTIALLY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY. WE WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING, BUT FLASH FLOODING LOOKS UNLIKELY. AN
ADDITIONAL THIRD OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE 30S
AND LOW 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE
PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK.
ON TUESDAY, WINDS DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY BY MID
MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED OUT. UNDER THIS SUNNY BUT COOLER REGIME, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS MODERATE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2. TEMPERATURES INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST US WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, AND WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION VIA THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY, THOUGH A COLD FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA IN THE OHIO VALLEY, AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REACH
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WV.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION, AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TRENDING
LOWER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, A 500MB RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA, WHILE AN UPPER LOW PULLS
NORTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL US INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALL IN A ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION JUST TO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA, AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SO
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL ONLY SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE KEEPS THE FRONT FROM
ADVANCING TOO FAR SOUTHWARD. BY SUNDAY, A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO SEA, AND
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME TO AN END FOR THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM VFR TO
MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HIGHER SEVERE THREAT WILL RESIDE CLOSER TO THE PIEDMONT,
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND
ERRATIC GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST BY 10 PM WITH ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO
25 KTS. CLOUDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR
STRATUS LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECT ANY LINGERING STRATUS TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS RETURNING THE WHOLE AREA
TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE STRATUS/SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
CLOSER FROM THE NORTH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SH
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