655
FXUS61 KRNK 251029
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
629 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THROUGH MID-WEEK, A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
CHILLY MORNING THIS MORNING WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
WORK. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE FREEZING MARK AND
SOME PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT MAY BE A BIT HIGHER
THAN FREEZING BUT STILL HAVING A FROST POTENTIAL. WILL LET THE
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING.
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECTING ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP
THOUGH WITH LAX WINDS OF JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MODERATE A BIT WARMER FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SOME UPPER
MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAINLY OF THE CIRRUS AND ALTO
VARIETY. THIS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT COOLING FOR TONIGHT AND PROGGED
LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO BRING A COOL AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW.
2) RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW.
THIS OVERALL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY TO SPREAD RAIN TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH
THE COMBINATION OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AND THE COOL WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD
DIP NOTABLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FURTHER AWAY BY TUESDAY, SO THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO FADE BY FRIDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY, A COOL AND MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY, AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY. THIS UNSETTLED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL PROLONG THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE BY
FRIDAY, WHILE LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE FADING BY FRIDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS TO ALTO
CLOUDS LOOK TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY AT THE ALTO LEVEL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHOWERS, AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUB-VFR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ032-033-043-
044-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022-023-034-
035-045>047.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AB/EB
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