533
FXUS61 KRNK 220005
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY BRINGING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
2) BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, NEAR ZERO IN
THE PIEDMONT.
3) ANOTHER FRIGID DAY TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AND LOW 20S IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA BARELY EXCEEDED 25 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FALLING TONIGHT, WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO FOR PLACES IN THE FAR WEST,
AND NEAR ZERO IN THE PIEDMONT. HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS CLOUDS IN THE WEST
LOOK TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT, AND CLOUDS FROM THE WINTER STORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHSIDE. HOWEVER, ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS IN THE WEST, A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE, SO LOWS BETWEEN
-10 IN THE WEST AND 10 IN THE EAST ARE POSSIBLE. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE, OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
THERE ARE, OVERALL, TWO IDEAL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE AREA WILL BE IN THE MOST
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THANKS TO UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW. THE OTHER LOCATION IS IN NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC AND
SOUTHSIDE VA. THE OUTER SNOW BANDS OF THE WINTER STORM OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COULD REACH THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THAT
BEING SAID, OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THIS WINTER STORM AND THESE OUTER BANDS MAY STILL
COMPLETELY MISS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION, THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERELY DRY (DEW POINTS BETWEEN 0 AND -10F), SO MANY FLAKES
WON'T MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. AS A RESULT, LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
NEVERTHELESS, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET, BUT THAT DOESN'T CHANGE THE FACT
THERE IS A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN OUR REGION. MOST OF THE REGION WILL
BE UNDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WITH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AT
SELECTED LOCATIONS THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AS FAR AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ALONG AND WEST
OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. WESTERN GREENBRIER, MAY HAVE WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND -20. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S EAST
OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND IN THE TEENS, BROADLY SPEAKING, ALONG
AND WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FLURRIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
2) TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINING COLD.
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH PASSAGE
OF REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FRIDAY. AS A WHOLE, THE COLD AIR
MODERATES FROM CURRENT NUMBERS, 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN
M4 TO M8 DEG C THURSDAY BEFORE RETREATING INTO THE M8 TO M12 DEG C
RANGE FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY WARMER THAN WHAT IS
OCCURRING NOW. BOTTOM LINE, WE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AVERAGING ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM.
MOISTURE PROFILES THURSDAY LOOK SHALLOW, BUT DEEPEN SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY PER PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT WILL BE
CLOUD COVER, BUT DO THINK FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR AT LEAST THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A WARMING TREND MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS BACK NORTH AND ZONAL
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
DRYING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST TUESDAY...
ACROSS THE AREA, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED, THOUGH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS, AS THE WINTER STORM CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. NOT EXPECTING ANY
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO AREA TERMINALS, LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT KDAN, BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS,
THOUGH MAY SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED SINCE ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT.
KBLF MAY ALSO SEE SUB VFR CEILINGS, AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AROUND
14Z WEDNESDAY, ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY, AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 18Z
WEDNESDAY, BUT MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, BUT LOW FOR ANY SNOW IMPACTING
KDAN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXCEPTION BEING SOME SUB-VFR MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY, WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ015-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>014-016>019-022>024-032>035.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ002-003-
019-020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ004>006.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...AS/CG
NEAR TERM...AS/CG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...AS/CG
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