970
FXUS61 KRNK 202306
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
706 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING,
WITH A FEW LINGERING STORMS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS. AN AREA OF
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE IS FUELING THE LINGERING STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN OVERALL PRETTY MARGINAL WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE STORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL, AND TIME FOR
STORMS TO INTENSIFY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. DCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG SHOULD
ENHANCE THE DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME 25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PER ONGOING DROUGHT AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN, EXPECT
STORMS TO WEAKEN.
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED, THEN WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND MUCH COOLER. A FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL BE
THE CLASH ZONE FOR A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT SPAWNING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
AND ONSET OF A COOLER AIR AIRMASS. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL
THEN DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH MODEL TRENDS DEVELOPING THIS INTO A HYBRID
SUBTROPICAL STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A FEATURE THAT
LOOKS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR MULTIPLE DAYS IN THE FORM OF
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS BLOWING FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER
AIRMASS WILL THEN MUTE OUR TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM AND A FULL 20 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW CURRENT OBSERVED VALUES.
DURING THIS TRANSITION, WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SHOWERY WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE 1-2" OF RAIN. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL, SO UNLESS WE SEE THE
ACTIVITY BECOME STATIONARY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING ANY
FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES. IF THERE IS ANY FLOODING IT WOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND DURING THE TIME WHEN THE FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHEN STORM CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TENDS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG BLUE RIDGE AS IT WEDGES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO RETURN TO READINGS NEAR
NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THIS EVENING, OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH IS CONTINUING IN A BROKEN LINE FROM
ABOUT KDAN TO THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN, AFTER ABOUT
06Z, AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST,
REACHING KLWB AND KBLF BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z OR SO, THEN FADING AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD. THEN, MODELS ARE SHOWING STORMS REDEVELOPING
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKING EAST WITH
TIME. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIME OF THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION, BUT MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE
THE EARLIEST TIMING, AS OF NOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE, BUT LOWER ON THUNDERSTORM
TIMING MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR TUESDAY AS WELL, WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. FOG AT NIGHT CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
PER FORECAST OF STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/PM
AVIATION...AS/PM
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