960
FXUS61 KRNK 232012
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
312 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN OFFSHORE
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...
AFTER A DRY SUNDAY, WET WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH OR BEGIN AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PROVIDED FOR THE REALLY DRY
WEEKEND IS MOVING EAST AND WILL PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
NORTHWEST UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
P-TYPE MONDAY WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDANT WITH DUSTING TO AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL
COUNTER ANY DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY, SO WE FAVORED THE COOLER
MOS GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
.AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY THIS POINT, ANY WINTRY MIX THAT WILL HAVE
BEEN PRESENT DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT. DESPITE BEING A SOUTHERN
STREAM BASED SYSTEM, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LOW. BY THE END
OF IT, RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO TOP OFF AT .5", WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE.
DRY WEATHER ONLY TEMPORARILY RETURNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SECOND FRONT ARRIVES WITH A LOW THAT WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE AN EVEN DRIER
SYSTEM THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE OUT OF IT.
AS OF NOW, QPF AMOUNTS FROM IT SHOULD TOP OFF AROUND .25" FOR THE
WEST, AND BARELY A TENTH FOR THE EAST IF LUCKY. COLD AIR WILL BE
PUSHING IN WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM AND WILL CHANGE FROM RAINFALL
OVER TO SNOWFALL. CHANGE OVER WILL START TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY THURSDAY AM. ANY SNOWFALL THAT OCCURS BEYOND
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE. BY THURSDAY AM, SNOWFALL
BECOMES CONFINED TO JUST THE WESTERN SLOPES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN .25-1". BY LUNCHTIME, SNOWFALL WILL START TO WRAP
UP.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS
TO THE WARM FRONT. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS WITH MOST IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ALSO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND IT, BRINGING A RANGE IN HIGHS
BETWEEN THE 40S ALONG THE WEST, ALL THE WAY UP TO THE 60S FOR THE
EAST. WE TURN BACK COOLER THURSDAY, STARTING THE DAY FOR MANY BELOW
FREEZING, AND STRUGGLING TO WARM COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE 30S TO 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
..AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TURNS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH DOMINATING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE ONLY FEATURE CURRENTLY BEING WATCHED IS A CLIPPER THAT
LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED WITH IT, SO THERE ISN'T MUCH FOR POPS OUT OF IT FOR NOW
(THIS COULD STILL CHANGE). IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST WE WILL
REALLY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT OF IT FOR NOW ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR
EVERYONE, AS WELL AS A FEW LOW CLOUDS FOR THE WEST.
THE MORE NOTEWORTHY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE TURN
TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST FOR SOME TIME THANKS TO THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE CLIPPER. LOWS EACH MORNING
WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE WEST AND 20S FOR THE EAST.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB WITH THE WESTERN HALF FIGHTING TO REACH
FREEZING SOME DAYS, AS THE EAST WARMS INTO THE MID 40S.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS.
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE = HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LOOKING AT SUB-VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH A BREAK POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWER CHANCES AND SUB-VFR, FOLLOWED
BRISK/WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...PM
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