120
FXUS61 KRNK 182340
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A MOISTURE-STARVED BACKDOOR FRONT
MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LOOKING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CALM/LIGHT WIND AND
CLEAR SKIES. A BIT OF RIVER FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS, BUT SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT.
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN
THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME CUMULUS FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH NEAR 90 EAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO
THE MOUNTAINS.
2) SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY WEDGING FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL BEND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS
AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DEW POINTS WILL NOT MOVE AS MUCH AND REMAIN IN THE MID-50S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE MID-60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE RECOVERING
AND INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN
THE MID-50S AND MID-60S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THE COOLER DAYS. THERE WILL BE A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TAKES SHAPE WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A INCREASE OF WINDS GUSTING TO ABOUT 10-15 MPH.
A SHORTWAVE IS ALSO PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND, BUT ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS ARE PRESENT SUCH AS CAPE AND EVEN WEAK WIND
SHEAR (20-25KTS) BUT THEY DO NOT ALL SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY ALIGN
WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE WIND SHEAR, FOR INSTANCE, IS MORE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA WHILE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INSTABILITY
ARE ON THE EAST SIDE. IN ADDITION, RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEDGE WILL DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
EVEN SO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW BUT NOT ZERO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) CUTOFF LOW TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE UNITED STATES.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE FROM
WESTERN CANADA DOWN SOUTH AND POSSIBLY EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
UNITED STATES. WHILE THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL
TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW, SPECIFICS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT MOVES EAST IS
CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN. THE PATH OF THE LOW WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK. GIVEN PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1-1.5", HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A CONCERN IF THE
REGION WAS TO BE AFFECTED. IN ADDITION, THIS SYSTEM HAS CONSIDERABLE
WIND SHEAR WITH IT WHICH WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT IN STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH WHEREVER CONVECTION WILL FORM.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL
BE LIFR FOG AT LWB AND POSSIBLY BCB LATE TONIGHT. BCB FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR INTO THE WEEKEND ASIDE FROM ANY LATE NIGHT
FOG NORMALLY AT LWB/BCB. A FRONT THIS WEEKEND LOOKS LIMITED ON
MOISTURE SO AM ANTICIPATING VFR. POTENTIAL SUB-VFR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN WHILE WARM LIFTS BACK NORTH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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