350
FXUS61 KRNK 042315
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING, WITH A LULL IN
ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC AND ACROSS WV.
2) MORNING FOG FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE PASSED WELL EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING
BEHIND SOME DECENT DAMAGE WITH PLENTY OF TREES DOWN IN PORTIONS
OF HALIFAX COUNTY AND SOME ROOF DAMAGE IN GALAX, VA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNS FROM NORTHERN VA INTO CENTRAL VA WITH
A BUBBLE HIGH OVER NORTHWEST NC. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHANYS LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, CLEARING SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WHERE IT RAINED. COULD VERY WELL GET DENSE AT TIMES
TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY, SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PIEDMONT, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
REACHING 90 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE.
2) WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO HAVE SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WILL AID IN
LIFT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PIEDMONT
COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THESE FACTORS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT PUSHES EAST, THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY DRY AS THE FRONT WILL BE OFF TO OUR EAST, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AROUND
EASTERN VIRGINIA. ALL CONVECTION CLEARS OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA, USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR FOR NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
NOT BE EXCESSIVE, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.10" OF
RAINFALL, AND HIGHER AMOUNTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, UP TO 0.50".
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT SEASONS, WITH OUR
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY BEING QUITE WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL STAY IN
THE 70S AS RAINFALL MOVES IN EARLIER IN THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MID 70S
IN THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CHANGE WITH THE FROPA, AS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE, BEFORE FALLING INTO
THE 40S/50S BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A LARGE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK, AS IT BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND WEDGE DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA VERY QUIET, THANKS TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND A ZONAL PATTERN AT THE
UPPER-LEVELS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK
THROUGH THURSDAY. COMBINED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, FALL-LIKE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY, THE WEDGE DOES
BEGIN TO WEAKEN, AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOES SWING DOWN JUST NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, DRY AIR
WILL KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH THEY WILL
RISE A FEW DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE REACHING AROUND 70 MID TO
LATE WEEK. THE PIEDMONT WILL START OUT IN THE MID 70S AND REACH NEAR
80 LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS DO THE SAME, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, INCREASING TO AREA-WIDE 50S LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 710 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN FOG POSSIBLE BUT MORE-SO IN
THE MOUNTAINS. KEPT IT OUT OF ROA/LYH/DAN BUT WITH THE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SUB-VFR FOG AT THESE
SITES TONIGHT.
FOG COULD DENSE AT LWB, POSSIBLY BCB BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ANY FOG GIVES WAY TO VFR BY 14Z FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS
POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A SECOND FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION,
RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/NF/WP
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