052
FXUS61 KRNK 241518
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1118 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TODAY, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS FOR
THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1115 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARM AND DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FAIR WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS
THOUGH TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MID OR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE 12Z RNK SOUNDING VALIDATES
THIS WITH OBSERVED PWAT JUST UNDER 1 INCH. THIS SOUNDING WAS BY
FAR THE DRIEST OF THE REGIONAL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING, SO I
GUESS WE SHOULD FEEL PRIVILEGED.
OVERALL, EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING UP,
SO THE STICKINESS FACTOR WILL BE A BIT HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT, BUT
WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE WITH CLOSEST RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN.
2) INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
SUMMER HAS NO INTENTION OF LEAVING ANYTIME SOON AND WILL BE BRINGING
THE HEAT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROPAGATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE
80S AND 90S REGION-WIDE WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN AVERAGE. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 90-105 DEGREES. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD BE AS HIGH AS BETWEEN 80-95 TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AREAS TOWARDS THE EAST COULD SEE HEAT INDEX UP TO 105.
THIS WILL BE START OF AN OVERALL HEAT TREND.
SATURDAY, HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION DUE TO SOME WEAK
FORCING AND AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BECAUSE OVERALL FLOW IS WESTERLY, STORMS
THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE UPSLOPE BASED AND CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE
MORE WESTERN AND MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HEAT WAVE CONTINUES.
2) DAILY RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD BUT WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGHER
HEIGHTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE HOT TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S, WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE 60S AND 70S, THE HEAT INDEX IS FORECAST TO RISE AS HIGH AS
BETWEEN 90-105. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
WESTWARD, 500MB WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SEND A FEW
SMALL PERTURBATIONS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SURPRISINGLY IN AGREEMENT WITH A GIANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1115 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CU FIELD FEATURING CLOUD BASES 3-5KFT. WINDS WILL FAVOR A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, SPEEDS UNDER 8KTS...GOING
CALM AT SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
ANTICIPATE VFR THROUGH FRI NIGHT OUTSIDE ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FLIGHT HAZARDS RETURN BY THE WEEKEND AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/PM
NEAR TERM...BMG/PM
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/PM
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