313
FXUS61 KRNK 141722
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
A FEW SHOWERS/MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
IN SOUTHEAST WV.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ABNORMAL WARMTH FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE.
2. A COOL DOWN ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ABNORMAL
WARMTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MINOR SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST WV
THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED WITH BETTER COVERAGE
FURTHER NORTH/WEST. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, STILL LOOKING AT STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH
COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH LESS COVERAGE EAST.
RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BEFORE THE PATTERN CHANGES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO OVERALL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH FRIDAY COULD BE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SEE CLIMATE AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS BELOW FOR DETAILS ON
RECORDS AND FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COOL DOWN ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF A COOL DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. IF THIS OCCURS, THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECORD
BREAKING HEAT THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO APRIL NORMALS. SOME RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
LIGHT AND UNLIKELY TO AID IN HELPING WITH THE CURRENT DROUGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL BE WSW THROUGH
THE PERIOD, A FEW GUSTS 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A
FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING THU NIGHT-FRIDAY THAT MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY
WITH A STRONGER FRONT AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SUB-VFR CIGS/VBSY. WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR LOW AND
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL ONLY PROLONG THE
ONGOING DROUGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TOWARDS 20 TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOME SOUTHERN-FACING SLOPES MAY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS
DUE TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE INCREASING HEAT.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL ESCALATE FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE ANOMALOUS HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME GUSTS WILL ONLY MAKE FIRE CONTAINMENT
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE
NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL MAY NOT
COME UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO BRING SOME
RELIEF.
CLIMATE
THE FOLLOWING RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS, OR
WARMEST LOWS, ARE IN JEOPARDY DUE TO THE ABNORMAL WARMTH OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS:
TODAY:
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 91 IN 1945 67 IN 1922
LYNCHBURG 91 IN 1941 63 IN 2014
DANVILLE 91 IN 1945 75 IN 1922
BLUEFIELD 83 IN 1930 64 IN 1977
BLACKSBURG 82 IN 1941 60 IN 1941
WEDNESDAY:
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 89 IN 1936 67 IN 2024
LYNCHBURG 89 IN 1941 65 IN 1896
DANVILLE 91 IN 2006 68 IN 1922
BLUEFIELD 89 IN 1922 60 IN 2006
BLACKSBURG 83 IN 1941 57 IN 1954
THURSDAY:
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 90 IN 2002 61 IN 2017
LYNCHBURG 91 IN 2002 65 IN 1912
DANVILLE 92 IN 2002 64 IN 1916
BLUEFIELD 81 IN 2012 66 IN 2006
BLACKSBURG 82 IN 1941 61 IN 1941
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/WP/BG
AVIATION...SH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP
CLIMATE...PW/SH
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