432
FXUS61 KRNK 140607
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
207 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL
BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE BEING WATCHED THIS MORNING. THE
FIRST AREA IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
SECOND AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE ANOTHER BATCH
OF HEAVY RAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
THE WESTERN CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW LONG THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION REMAIN, BUT BOTH HAVE
SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
FEW RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
OVERALL SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN, PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE (I.E. 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES),
THUS STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE, MAINLY POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
STORMS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AGAIN TONIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED
DOWNPOURS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS, BUT SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AND DAYTIME HEATING, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
INITIALLY, AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING.
PROBABILITIES LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS GREATEST, PROMPTING OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ABOVE 1.50" ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THIS PATTERN, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG,
AS SBCAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO 1000 J/KG.
BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING
IN SOME DRIER AIR. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY DRY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH STILL FEELING WARM AND HUMID.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.
2. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROMPT AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BY THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND AS SUCH, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
THE 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SO WHILE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD,
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR HEATWAVE FOR THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS, OR
ANY TRAINING STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING, BUT A FEW AREAS OF MVFR/IFR EXIST,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG DEVELOP
IN RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
CONSIDERING LACK OF ANY ONGOING FOG ATTM.
MOST AREAS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 13-15Z, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR A LITTLE LONGER.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT. FOG AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS WEEK KEEPING DAILY THREAT OF
STORMS AROUND AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
BEST AVIATION DAY OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING FOG. A FEW STORMS MAY
FORM MONDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS SCATTERED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG
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