578
FXUS61 KRNK 250101
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
801 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
NEARS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MORE POTENT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EST MONDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OUR
AREA IN SE WEST VIRGINIA UNTIL CLOSER TO DAY BREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
RIDGES.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION. IN RESPONSE,
WILL SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION, BUT
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE LIGHT, AROUND 0.25
INCHES OR LESS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGES, ESPECIALLY ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES.
SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20MPH RANGE, PERHAPS AROUND 30MPH AT TIMES
FOR AREAS FROM BURKES GARDEN TO BLUEFIELD AND ALONG THE I77
CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1235 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING, BRINGING A
SHARP COOLDOWN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. SOME
FORECAST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A
BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DAWN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS
BAND HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS HOWEVER, FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT WILL LEAVE ONLY OCCASIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
ITS WAKE, WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, BRINGING WITH IT
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL SIGNALS IN THE LATEST WEATHER DATA
INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
DURING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING,
HOWEVER MOISTURE IS NOT FORECAST TO REMAIN LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WEST WINDS FOR THANKSGIVING, WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOL AND DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WET WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
2) A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY
FRIDAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH TEMPERATURES OVERALL HOLDING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL TREND WARMER HOWEVER AS WINDS
SHIFT MORE FROM THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN LINGERING COLD
AIR ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO OUR AREA WILL START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN, BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL INITIALLY
START OUT AS MVFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT A FEW
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE 16-22 UTC TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY.
AS THESE RESTRICTIONS WORSEN, THEY APPEAR TO LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LIKELY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TO INCLUDE
ROA, BCB, LWB, AND BLF LOOK TO SEE GUSTS CLOSER TO THOSE 20
KNOTS OR EVEN OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW ON 00 UTC
WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY, SOME LLWS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ROA AND BCB TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AT THE 850MB LEVEL INCREASES TO
AROUND 45-50 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
EVENING WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS JUST OFF THE DECK WHEN PLANES ARE
TAKING OFF AND LANDING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A STRONG FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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