639
FXUS61 KRNK 040530
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
130 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A QUIET/SEASONABLY WARM INDEPENDENCE DAY
LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO KEEP US DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. NOT TOO BAD FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY, SO SHOULD BE A DECENT ENOUGH DAY TO GET OUT
AND ENJOY ANY FESTIVITIES/FIREWORKS/GRILLING, ETC. DURING THE
DAY, STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS AS THE HEAT CAN STILL IMPACT
YOU.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN FROM NEAR 90 IN THE PIEDMONT AND
ROANOKE/SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
JUST A FEW CU OR PASSING HIGH THIN CIRRUS IN AN OTHERWISE SUNNY
SKY.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
2. DRY SATURDAY, BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A LOOK AT THE 3 JUL 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT A BROAD REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE
AREA OF SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THE NORTHERN
JET LOCATED THERE ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THE W-E ORIENTED UPPER JET OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA HEAD SOUTH INTO THE US, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDS FAST. FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER OUR
REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE
WEAKNESS IS NOTED OVER FL. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK NOSE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER VA/NC. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WEAKNESS OVER FL SHIFTS
NORTH A BIT TO OVER THE AREA OF AL/GA/SC. FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT,
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH HEAD SOUTH TO OVER OUR REGION AND
STALLS.
A LOOK AT THE 3 JUL 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DATA
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM +17C TO +19C, E-W, OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FOR SUNDAY, THE WEAKNESS OVER THE SE US MAY DRIFT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURES MAY
DO MORE OF THE SAME ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE COMPLIMENTED BY THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHEAST GETTING CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE THREE TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES,
BUT ONLY MODERATE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THANKS TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES THE FEATURE OVER THE SE US MAY BRING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
2. INCREASING CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
3. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A LOOK A THE 3 JUL 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
SHOWS FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT A SMALL SOUTHERN DIP IN BOTH THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, A TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE BETTER SHAPE FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS. FOR
THURSDAY, THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
BASE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH A CLEAR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION. A BROAD AND STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE, FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT REMAINS
OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION.
A LOOK AT THE 3 JUL 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DATA
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +18C TO +20C, NE-
SW, ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY, THE VALUES MAY SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO +17C TO
+19C.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STOPPING OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WE ARE EXPECTING DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. DEPENDING UPON JUST WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS, AND HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS ON A DAILY BASIS, WE MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASING RISK OF FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAY TOUCH THE 100F MARK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SHOULD SEE LIFR FOG AT LWB AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE IN OTHER RIVER AND MOUNTAINS VALLEYS
AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THAT, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF MORNING VALLEY FOG
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG/SH/WP
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