357
FXUS61 KRNK 202332
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
BETA WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THEN INCREASES BY SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE DRY, COOL AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STAY OVER NEW
ENGLAND, WHICH WILL HOLD A WEDGE IN PLACE AGAINST THE EASTERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. SOME RIVER AND LAKE FOG COULD BE APPEAR
MONDAY MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. THE STABLE
AND VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (STATION SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOW PWATS < 0.25")
WILL PROVIDE US WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ALLOW FOR ESPECIALLY SHARP
DIURNAL SWINGS OF UP TO 30 DEGREES.
SOME OF OUR COLDEST LOCATIONS LIKE BURKES GARDEN, VA COULD DROP JUST
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS THEY DID SUNDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 30S, AND EAST
INTO THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL REBOUND HEALTHILY, HELPED ALONG BY AN EASILY WARMED DRY AIR
MASS, GETTING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM EDT SUNDAY...
COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS HURRICANE TEDDY TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY MORNING FROST TO SEVERAL MID ATLANTIC
MOUNTAIN SITES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LAST CHANCE FOR FROST
FOR US WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. UNDER FULL SUN AND
A DRY ATMOSPHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, DAYTIME NORMALS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. WITH AN OPEN GULF
AND POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BETA, THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
(ECM) IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY KEEP THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON-GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN 3F-5F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR VALLEY/RIVER FOG MAY CREATE SOME BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS AT LWB
FOR VSBYS FROM 21/11Z THRU 21/14Z. THE REST OF MONDAY SHOULD BE VFR
AFTER THAT FOG MIXES OUT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO CALM AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IS HIGH
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIFR EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG THE RIVERS.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/VFJ
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