960  
FXUS61 KRNK 232012  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
312 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.  
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST  
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN OFFSHORE  
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...  
 
AFTER A DRY SUNDAY, WET WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL  
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH OR BEGIN AS A  
PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PROVIDED FOR THE REALLY DRY  
WEEKEND IS MOVING EAST AND WILL PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.  
IN ITS WAKE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE OF A  
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR  
NORTHWEST UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
P-TYPE MONDAY WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDANT WITH DUSTING TO AN  
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. EXPECT  
MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL  
COUNTER ANY DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY, SO WE FAVORED THE COOLER  
MOS GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
   
.AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY
 
 
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY THIS POINT, ANY WINTRY MIX THAT WILL HAVE  
BEEN PRESENT DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER AS TEMPERATURES  
GRADUALLY WARM WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT. DESPITE BEING A SOUTHERN  
STREAM BASED SYSTEM, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LOW. BY THE END  
OF IT, RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO TOP OFF AT .5", WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 
DRY WEATHER ONLY TEMPORARILY RETURNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SECOND FRONT ARRIVES WITH A LOW THAT WILL  
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE AN EVEN DRIER  
SYSTEM THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE OUT OF IT.  
AS OF NOW, QPF AMOUNTS FROM IT SHOULD TOP OFF AROUND .25" FOR THE  
WEST, AND BARELY A TENTH FOR THE EAST IF LUCKY. COLD AIR WILL BE  
PUSHING IN WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM AND WILL CHANGE FROM RAINFALL  
OVER TO SNOWFALL. CHANGE OVER WILL START TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY THURSDAY AM. ANY SNOWFALL THAT OCCURS BEYOND  
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE. BY THURSDAY AM, SNOWFALL  
BECOMES CONFINED TO JUST THE WESTERN SLOPES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS  
WILL RANGE BETWEEN .25-1". BY LUNCHTIME, SNOWFALL WILL START TO WRAP  
UP.  
 
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS  
TO THE WARM FRONT. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE  
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS WITH MOST IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ALSO  
BE ABOVE AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH  
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND IT, BRINGING A RANGE IN HIGHS  
BETWEEN THE 40S ALONG THE WEST, ALL THE WAY UP TO THE 60S FOR THE  
EAST. WE TURN BACK COOLER THURSDAY, STARTING THE DAY FOR MANY BELOW  
FREEZING, AND STRUGGLING TO WARM COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS  
PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE 30S TO 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
   
..AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY
 
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TURNS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH DOMINATING HIGH  
PRESSURE. THE ONLY FEATURE CURRENTLY BEING WATCHED IS A CLIPPER THAT  
LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS VERY  
LIMITED WITH IT, SO THERE ISN'T MUCH FOR POPS OUT OF IT FOR NOW  
(THIS COULD STILL CHANGE). IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST WE WILL  
REALLY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT OF IT FOR NOW ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR  
EVERYONE, AS WELL AS A FEW LOW CLOUDS FOR THE WEST.  
 
THE MORE NOTEWORTHY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE TURN  
TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST FOR SOME TIME THANKS TO THE  
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE CLIPPER. LOWS EACH MORNING  
WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE WEST AND 20S FOR THE EAST.  
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB WITH THE WESTERN HALF FIGHTING TO REACH  
FREEZING SOME DAYS, AS THE EAST WARMS INTO THE MID 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING,  
ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS.  
 
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN  
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN  
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  
 
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE = HIGH.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION. LOOKING AT SUB-VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  
TUESDAY WITH A BREAK POSSIBLY LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES  
IN WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWER CHANCES AND SUB-VFR, FOLLOWED  
BRISK/WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...PM  
NEAR TERM...PM  
SHORT TERM...RR  
LONG TERM...RR  
AVIATION...PM  
 
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