925
FXUS61 KRNK 140707
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
207 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WED-THU SYSTEM ARE STILL ABOUT THE SAME
WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
WV, SW VA AND NC, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET, LIKE MT ROGERS. THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS THE INTRODUCTION OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, NOT
QUITE ADVISORY LEVEL YET. NO CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS A
COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES EXIST FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH WINDS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE FOR
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT.
2) BLUSTERY AND COLDER WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A BAND
OF RAIN ARRIVING IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND FADING
AS IT HEADS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ONLY TO REFORM MAINLY EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WED EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
BUT GOOD UPPER ENERGY/FORCING. THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
MAIN BATCH OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS INCREASE FROM 5-7:1 AT THE START TO 20:1
BY THURSDAY MORNING. BASED ON TOTAL LIQUID QPF WITH SOME RAIN
THROWN IN OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH EAST OVER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY,
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 2 INCHES. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE 3+ INCHES WILL
OCCUR. PLACES LIKE MT ROGERS/BEECH MOUNTAIN/BURKES GARDEN COULD
SEE 4-6" BUT ITS ISOLATED TO ABOVE 4500 FEET. HREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE
OF 3.0" OF SNOW OR GREATER FOR MOST OF WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY. GIVEN THESE PROBABILITIES OF 60-90% FOR 3.0 INCHES OR
GREATER ACROSS THIS COUNTY, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 3.0" EXISTS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE; HOWEVER, AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN SE WEST VIRGINIA OR SW VIRGINIA AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2... BLUSTERY AND COLDER WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING.
WITH ARCTIC AIR RUSHING IN AND 6 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5-8MB ON A
35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RAMP UP WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 15 TO 30 MPH IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME 45+MPH GUSTS IN THE NC HIGH
COUNTRY NORTH TOWARD BURKES GARDEN/MOUNTAIN LAKE. MAY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY BUT AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS MAY REACH OVER 45 MPH GUSTS.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS WED NIGHT AND WEST WINDS
INCREASE, APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN
THE PIEDMONT. AGAIN, CONSISTENT VALUES OF -5 TO -10 DEGREE WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, WHICH HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO
WARM ABOVE THE -5 THRESHOLD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING LIFT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
ENSEMBLES KEEP PROBABILITY FOR SNOW GREATER THAN AN INCH VERY LOW
EXCEPT IN WV AND FAR SW VA MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY PER LONGER RANGE LOW RESOLUTION MODEL TENDENCY TO MISS THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS.
COLD AIR WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO PRIMARY P-TYPE
SHOULD BE SNOW. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, IT IS JANUARY, SO IT SHOULD
BE COLD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LEAD TO LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS AT LWB AND BLF DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TODAY. THESE MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BCB AND ROA
ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LYH AND DAN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INITIALLY AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. AS THE WINDS SHIFT, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS AND 15-25 KNOTS FOR PIEDMONT TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY MORNING, BUT LIKELY WILL
ONLY AFFECT BLF/LWB.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, AGAIN BRINGING SNOW CHANCES MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH WOULD LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SUB- VFR, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AREAWIDE SUNDAY, THOUGH NOT A LOT, BUT STILL
SUB-VFR. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...EB/PM/PW
AVIATION...EB/VFJ
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