140
FXUS61 KRNK 180002
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
802 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE ESE
WIND FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE TN
VALLEY. AS SUCH, POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IS BEING MAINLY CONFINED
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS ARE ALSO
MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS CORRIDOR TOO, WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DEBRIS BEING CAST TO THE EAST.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, CAN'T RULE OUT LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE, AND A FEW SPRINKLES BEING CAST FARTHER EAST. BUT
BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WILL
REMAIN DRY. WITH DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER, COMPARED TO RECENT
NIGHTS, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTENED SOIL
CONDITIONS. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, ANY
FOG SHOULD START TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. A BIT WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY (COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY) PER INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY, SO LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK WIND FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ALMOST DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS...
SOME CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN
US, AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUT THE MID ATLANTIC IN BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US AND GULF COAST STATES FOR THIS SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TO THE NORTH OF THAT SYSTEM IS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN, BUT NOT ZERO, FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, AS EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND
PROVIDE SOME LIFT AND INSTABILITY, THEREFORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GREATEST COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, MEANING NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE OF VA.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN, BUT CLOSE TO, NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS...
THE THEME OF DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ALSO FEATURE IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, HENCE THE SIMILAR HEADLINE ABOVE. THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BE INCHING ITS WAY
CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC, BUT EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO STALL FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. AS THE FRONT SITS COMFORTABLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT
THE SURFACE. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THIS
MIDWEST FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, AND COULD REACH THE MID
ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL "SANDWICH" THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE AREA TO WARRANT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-77 AND ALONG THE VA/NC
STATE TIME FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN MORE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT STILL MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER WITH AMPLE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SCT-BKN LOW/MID CLOUDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED AGAINST THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, BUT WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH
MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHOWERS WILL
ALSO EXIST NEAR THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE CREST (NEAR THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE)
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY
FOG WITHIN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS, WHICH MAY
IMPACT KLWB AND KBCB DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
AFTER 14Z/10AM THURSDAY, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR WITH CLOUD
BASES AOA 4KFT AND VSBYS P6SM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE = GOOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED TO (AT TIMES)
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCE FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS...AND AGAIN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/RAB
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM
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