216
FXUS61 KRNK 151752
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
2) GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA, ROUGHLY
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE US 460 CORRIDOR, AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR, MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST WV,
THE NORTHERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, AS THE FRONT NEARLY
STALLS OVER THE REGION. SOME MLCAPE IS PRESENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL PART OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL SLOWLY START TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER WV AND INTO THE OH VALLEY, WHICH WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
AREA FOR TODAY.
CLOUD COVER ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S, SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
THOSE AREAS. OVERALL, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH WILL REACH
THE AREA BY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, OVER MD, PA,
AND OTHER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC, CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, NOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
PIEDMONT LATE FRIDAY, AS SOME CAMS ARE INDICATING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT TO THE LOCAL ARE, FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, PEAKING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THEN TAPERING OFF
BY MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE STRONGER GUSTS LINGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT, THE
APPROACHING AIRMASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 DEG F SUNDAY MORNING ARE
ABOVE 90% FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS, LIKE BURKES GARDEN AND
MOUNT ROGERS VA, AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV, WITH 45% TO
65% ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS. FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, COULD
SEE A 15 TO 20 DEGREES SWING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED DOWNPOURS WILL BRING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT, CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
AND IFR/LIFR APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/8AM BEFORE LOWER
CLOUDS AND FOG BEGIN TO MIX OUT FOR MOST TERMINALS. BLF MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION GIVEN IT WILL REMAIN WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MAY HAVE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR BLF AND
LWB...JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD VCTS TO THE TAFS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND ALL TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS REACHING 20KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LOOK FOR
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...BMG
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