916
FXUS62 KGSP 190629
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA
FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM TODAY. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND
SPREAD QUICKLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
2. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD
FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND THE GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS FROM 6 AM TO 2
PM. GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. TREE LIMBS
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT.
3. RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
THIS MORNING INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
ALLOWING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN AREAS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
4. VERY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE-TO-LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK, WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY HIGH
FOR MID-SPRING WHILE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE. A POTENTIAL FRONT THEN BRINGS THE NEXT HOPE FOR RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA
FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM TODAY. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND
SPREAD QUICKLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (20-30 MPH) COMBINED WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (<25%) DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ANY RAIN THAT MANAGES TO FALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON DRY
FUELS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT IN
PLACE, BOTH RELATIVE HUMIDITY (30%, TYPICALLY 25%) AND WIND GUST (25
MPH, TYPICALLY 30 MPH) CRITERIA HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR BOTH
RED FLAG AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THUS, A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RABUN AND HABERSHAM COUNTIES,
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGERS IN PLACE
FOR STEPHENS, FRANKLIN, HART, AND ELBERT COUNTIES FROM 12 PM TO 8
PM. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED, ESPECIALLY FOR RABUN AND
HABERSHAM COUNTIES. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD
QUICKLY. BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND THE GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS FROM 6 AM TO 2
PM. GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. TREE LIMBS COULD
BE BLOWN DOWN AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY, WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND DAYBREAK. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTS REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA (>45 MPH). THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO ALL
ELEVATIONS ACROSS BUNCOMBE AND MCDOWELL, AS WELL AS THE GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS, HENDERSON COUNTY, AND THE POLK, RUTHERFORD, BURKE AND
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS. THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA (<45 MPH). WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. TREE LIMBS COULD BE BLOWN DOWN
AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
ALLOWING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOME PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
IN AREAS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH SUCH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN BACK TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK APART AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO CONFIDENCE ON RAIN HOLDING TOGETHER EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS REMAINS LOW. UNFORTUNATELY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. A MUCH COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MOUNT MITCHELL, PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS
SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON FROST DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS VERY LOW WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SENDS A RE-INFORCING FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL RESURGE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON, COINCIDENT WITH RH IN THE
20-30% RANGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL LEVELS IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
NEVERTHELESS, FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY MUCH ELEVATED IN LIGHT OF THE
ONGOING DROUGHT/DIRE FUELS CONDITIONS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING NEAR THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR FROST WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SHELTERED AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
NORTHERN ZONES TUE MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON
TUESDAY, WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON RH OF 20-30% WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
THE FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 4: VERY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE-TO-LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK, WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY HIGH
FOR MID-SPRING WHILE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE. A POTENTIAL FRONT THEN BRINGS THE NEXT HOPE FOR RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MID-WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE EAST THROUGH WEEK'S
END. SPRAWLING LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
CONFLUENT FLOW OFF INTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY, ALBEIT
GRADUALLY MODIFYING AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MODIFYING
UNDER THE MID-SPRING SUN AND IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT,
WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM TO 5+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXES LIKELY REMAINING IN THE +5-10 RANGE
WITH RESPECT TO CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE FLUX WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VERY LOW...IF NOT
CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH EACH DAY WED-FRI. FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT IN THE VERY WARM/LOW RH CONDITIONS, AND FIRE DANGER WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR MID-SPRING, DESPITE THE RAPID GREEN-UP
THAT IS UNDERWAY. BY SATURDAY, A CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE/MAJOR HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY, POSSIBLY ALLOWING A
FRONTAL ZONE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. LIKELY POPS ARE
ADVERTISED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY 40-50% CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. HAVING SAID THAT, THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS EVENT WILL
PUT SO MUCH AS A DENT IN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS VERY SMALL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
-SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED PROB30S ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS TAF CYCLE AS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BREAKING APART ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. KAVL WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE -SHRA AND ASSOCIATION RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON -SHRA EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS REMAINS LOW AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL APART AS IT PUSHES OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY TURNED NW AT KAVL AND WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN SW/WSW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, TURNING NW BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BECOMING GUSTY. GUSTS AT
KAVL SHOULD RANGE FROM MOSTLY 25-35 KTS, WITH GUSTS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS RANGING MOSTLY FROM 20-28 KTS. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL
PEAK AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. GUSTS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING. CIGS
WILL BE BKN TO OVC AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING SKC
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: BREEZY WINDS RETURN MONDAY. DRY AND VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ010-017.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-049-050-052-053-059-062>065-501-503-
505-507-509.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ103.
AR/JDL
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