775
FXUS62 KGSP 170617
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
217 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME LATE
IN THE WEEK.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY, AND SPOTTY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK,
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ANY DROUGHT
RELIEF WILL BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY, AND
SPOTTY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING AN EARLY SUMMER
PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AND
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE SHOULD FORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER TROF DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
EASTERN RIDGE WILL HOLD A BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING SOME
SUMMER-LIKE WARM TEMPS TO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH MEANS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST OF THE MTNS AND IN THE
MTN VALLEYS. IT WILL FEEL HOT, BUT NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE, BECAUSE
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY, AND THUS WE SHOULD NOT
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. RECORD HIGHS ARE PROBABLY NOT
GOING TO BE REACHED, EITHER.
BEING A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN, NATURALLY OUR ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD
THE CHANCES OF PULSE-SEVERE STORMS. TODAY MIGHT BE THE MOST
INTERESTING DAY OF THE STRING BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF A REMNANT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AT MID-LEVELS, SEEN AS THE LAYER OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8 DEG C/KM, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO BETTER
HAIL CHANCES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER, FCST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FORMIDABLE CAP ACROSS THE REGION THAT WOULD
BE VERY DIFFICULT TO BREAK EVEN WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THE
HRRR KEEPS THE LID ON THE CONVECTION, BUT OTHER CAMS DEVELOP
SOME STORMS TO THE WEST WHERE THE CAP ISN'T AS STRONG, AND THEN
PROPAGATE THEM EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. FOR NOW, A SMALL PRECIP
PROB WILL BE KEPT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA. WE
WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS IN THE HRRR. MONDAY WILL BE KEPT DRY AS
THE 00Z HRRR FAILS TO DEVELOP ANY SHOWERS. THE CAMS DON'T GO OUT
FAR ENOUGH TO SHED ANY LIGHT ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES MID TO
LATE WEEK, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ANY
DROUGHT RELIEF WILL BE LIMITED.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WHICH ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TRAILING DOWN FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVER THE MTNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN ARE HOLDING UP THUS FAR AS MORE OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION INTO
THURSDAY, THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
PROBS RAMP UP TO A RESPECTABLE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THAT PRECIP WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH
OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD, SO ANY MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF APPEARS TO
BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. STILL, A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WON'T HURT. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME. THE TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING MAINLY ON FRIDAY, BUT IT SHOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK
DOWN TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND
SHOULD STAY CALM OR LIGHT/VAR OVERNIGHT, THEN COME UP FROM THE S
TO SW WITH SOME MIXING DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MORNING. WE
SHOULD HAVE A FEW HIGH BASED STRATOCU TODAY, THEN SKY GOES MOSTLY
CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND. CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE SOUTHWEST MTNS.
OUTLOOK: VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, EXCEPT IN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, WHERE PATCHY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP BY LATE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM
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