495
FXUS62 KGSP 031048
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED 10-20% FOR SATURDAY BASED ON LATEST
MODEL TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SATURDAY.
2. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF FLOODING
RAIN OR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LOW.
3. COLD AIR COULD BRING FROST OR A FREEZE TO PARTS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS, AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SATURDAY.
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY, WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH SUPPLYING WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO DEWPTS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE WEAK MID-LEVEL
CAPPING THAT SHOULD LIMIT DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTN, DESPITE
SOME SBCAPE. GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS, BUT STAYING
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THEN, A SEABREEZE FRONT WILL WORK INLAND FROM
THE SE OVERNIGHT AND COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WITH
THAT FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A STRATUS DECK THAT WILL LINGER
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTN. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD HELP BREAK
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BETTER INSTABILITY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE 00Z CAMS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE,
WITH THE NAMNEST CONTINUING TO BE UNIMPRESSED. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY, BUT STILL UNDERCUTTING THE CATEGORICAL
POPS SEEN IN THE LATEST NBM. EVEN IF COVERAGE OVERPERFORMS, LACK
OF SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE RISK
OF FLOODING RAIN OR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LOW.
A MATURE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN OVER EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE EAST, THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER
TROF WILL BECOME BROADER AND WEAKER, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE
ENOUGH OF A PUSH EASTWARD TO MOVE A COLD FRONT TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE MTNS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THEN WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD STILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNSET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A CATEGORICAL
PRECIP PROB. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WEAKENING FORCING DOES
NOT BODE PARTICULARLY WELL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNT TRENDS. FOR NOW,
THE RAIN LOOKS BENEFICIAL TO THE EXTENT THAT THE MTNS WILL LIKELY
SEE A HALF INCH TO INCH, WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS MIGHT SEE
HALF THAT. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT THE RISK OF FLOODING RAIN APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL. IF ANYTHING, THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO GO DOWN. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY IS UNFAVORABLE AND THE CHANCES
OF GETTING SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED CAPE ABOVE 500 J/KG ARE VERY LOW
APART FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALSO APPEARS TO BE NOT QUITE FAVORABLE ENOUGH AS IT TOPS OUT AROUND
25-30 KT. NOTE THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE
OR TWO UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE CAMS WANT TO HANDLE THE CONVECTION
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FOR THE TEMPS, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE LAST SEASONALLY MILD NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY GET
KNOCKED DOWN 5-10 DEGREES BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD AIR COULD BRING FROST OR A FREEZE TO PARTS OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS, AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND WILL GET REINFORCED
AS A LARGER HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS OVERALL WILL DROP BACK
DOWN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. OF CONCERN
ARE THE MIN TEMPS OVER THE MTNS EARLY MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY,
BUT FOR NOW ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS HAVE ANY CHANCE OF GETTING
BELOW FREEZING. A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE MTNS BOTH
NIGHTS THAT SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION EXCEPT IN
SOME SHELTERED SPOTS. THE SITUATION CHANGES TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR FROM THE REINFORCING
HIGH. EVEN THE MTN VALLEYS HAVE A 50/50 SHOT AT REACHING 32F AND
FROST WILL BE LIKELY. EVEN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FROST IF THE WIND GOES LIGHT.
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BE ACTIVATED ON 5 APRIL FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF I-26 AND ALSO FOR THE
NC PIEDMONT I-40 CORRIDOR (GREATER MCDOWELL EAST TO ROWAN,
AND NORTH). IT IS ALREADY ACTIVE IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. AS
THE FORECAST STANDS, SOME COMBINATION OF FROST ADV/FREEZE
WARN IS A GOOD BET ACROSS PARTS OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ALSO SETS UP THE CONFUSING SITUATION
WHERE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS MIGHT GET A FREEZE WARNING
BECAUSE THOSE ZONES ARE ACTIVE, BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
NOT GET A WARNING IN SPITE OF BEING EVEN COLDER BECAUSE THE PROGRAM
DOES NOT BECOME ACTIVE UNTIL 21 APRIL.
WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER, RH LOOKS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS,
THOUGH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. FUEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: OVERALL, CIGS HAVE NOT BEEN AS LOW AS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS SO FAR THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, PLENTY OF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 12Z TAFS. THE STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY AROUND MIDDAY TO VFR. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY SE OF KCLT, BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS PICK BACK UP
FROM THE S TO SW BY EARLY AFTN, THEN WEAKEN AGAIN SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, SCATTERING OUT BY EARLY AFTN. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTN TO EARLY EVENING,
WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/PM
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