352
FXUS62 KGSP 151034
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AMID A DRY AND STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS.
2. HOT AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR DAILY
RECORDS. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME RAINFALL TO OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO SMALL TO IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AMID A DRY AND STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A WEAK BERMUDA
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE THE TYPICAL
MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS REGIME, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH WILL CAUSE
DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. COMBINE THAT WITH EARLY
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL DIP BETWEEN 25-30% EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER (<=800MB) WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH)
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN THE WINDS UPTICK SLIGHTLY WITH AN
INCOMING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT, AT LEAST INCREASED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR WESTERN NC AND NORTHEAST
GA THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE CRITERIA
ISN'T FULLY MET, LOW RH VALUES, HIGH HEAT STRESS, AND VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
THIS THREAT TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, SO DAILY
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE AND IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TO 8 PM TODAY FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA FOR ONGOING DRY FUELS
AND RH VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 30%. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF WESTERN
NC AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN THURSDAY, AS RH MAY DIP A LITTLE
LOWER AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTIER OUT OF THE SW. CAN'T
RULE OUT A POTENTIAL RED FLAG WARNING ON THURSDAY WITH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FOR LOW RHS AND GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLY BEING MET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR DAILY RECORDS. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME RAINFALL TO OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO SMALL TO
IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH KEEPS WARM, SLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AN
EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY
FRIDAY, WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. A MUCH BROADER
AND DEEPER UPPER TROF WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND PUSH A ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. A
WEAKER COLD FRONT DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY,
HOWEVER IT GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WASHES OUT
OVER THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. I WOULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE NC MTNS, MOSTLY ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER REGION, LATE THURS
INTO EARLY FRI, BUT ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. THE MORE
ROBUST FRONT ON SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA, HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NC MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS, AND ACCUMS OVER THOSE AREAS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.15 INCHES. SO IT'S STILL LOOKING LIKE ANY PRECIP THAT WE GET FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE AND APPROACH DAILY RECORDS
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOWER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGE ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH VALUES BELOW 20% POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION,
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, SATURDAY, AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER. FORTUNATELY
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR-NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY. IN ADDITION, FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS EARLY MONDAY
AND FROST-PRODUCING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP IN SPEED (6-12 KTS) BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS STRAY SHRA, ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907
KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907
KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JPT
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