994
FXUS62 KGSP 242357
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH WED NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
2. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
3. COOL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH WED
NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED, LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING A FEW TICKS BELOW NORMAL.
A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
DEVELOPS AN IN-SITU TYPE OF SYNOPTIC LOOK, BUT THE FLOW TURNS MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH KEEPS IT
FROM BECOMING TRUE COLD AIR DAMMING. 850MB RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST, ALLOWING FOR THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN
INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY PRECIP. STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE COMPARED TO TUESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT STILL
A TICK OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS A WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO GULF MOISTURE INFLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. THE BEST FORCING
SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE DRIVING SHORTWAVE DOESN'T DIG
VERY FAR SOUTH. ALL THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
REMAINING LIMITED TO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND I-40 CORRIDOR. CHANCE POP
DOES DEVELOP FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR BUT DROPS OFF RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA. EVEN WHERE THE BETTER POP IS, QPF REMAINS
LIGHT WHICH WON'T HELP MITIGATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS VERY MUCH. SBCAPE
REMAINS WEAK AS WELL, LIMITING THUNDER CHANCES. HIGHS WILL THREATEN
RECORDS AT CLT AND GSP WITH INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES AND WESTERLY
FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COOL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY RISING TO
AROUND NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NC MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS SAID, THE
FIRST GROUP OF ZONES IN THE SPRING FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM (GA/SC ZONES
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN TIER OF NC PIEDMONT ZONES) DO NOT
ACTIVATE UNTIL APRIL 1.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AND A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE, THEN BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME FEW/SCT CUMULUS IN THE 040-050
RANGE ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 85 2020 32 1955 60 1921 11 1955
1894
KCLT 85 1950 40 1894 62 1949 19 1955
1944
KGSP 86 2020 45 2011 60 1921 15 1894
1947
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JDL/RWH
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