378
FXUS62 KGSP 301834
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK AS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS RETURNS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY: A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
A MUCH DEEPER CLOSED LOW SPINS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM HICKORY, NC TO
THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE STORMS HAS LIMITED
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED
CAPE, OR LESS. THIS, ALONG WITH POOR SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION
RELATIVE TO THE CONVECTIVE LINEAR SEGMENTS, HAS RESULTED IN RATHER
MEAGER STORMS SO FAR. A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS HAVE
MATERIALIZED, BUT SO FAR NOTHING WORTHY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING. REGARDLESS, A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CONVECTION
PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY 4-5PM, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, A GENERALLY QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD COVER
CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, A PIECE OF ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF
ENHANCED WINDS WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT DIVES
INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL SEND A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WITH A BOUNDARY LAID OUT FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A RETURN OF UPPER FORCING IN CONCERT WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP INSTIGATE A BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. CAMS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EXTEND FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES, BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER VORTEX WILL WOBBLE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS REACHING
THE EAST COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND HELP SHARPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. A SFC FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE, AND MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. MODELS AGREE ON AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWFA WITH
ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS, WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTN TO EARLY EVENING. A SHOTGUN CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA
ON THE NBM LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE, LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU MONDAY, AS A MILD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL, VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND MODEST HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY: MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING TO THE EAST COAST THRU
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS AN EXCEPTION, CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TUESDAY, THEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. EITHER
WAY, DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS ON A WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST THURSDAY, AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY, WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF CHC POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTN. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THRU
THURSDAY, SO THE NBM POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LAY OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED WX FOR THE CWFA
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A NUMBER OF IMPACTS TO TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR AREA WIDE. A LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO FOSTER MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY AND
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 20-21Z WITH A QUICK RETURN TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. GUSTS RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...TW
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