322
FXUS62 KGSP 231441
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TODAY, ALONG WITH A LOW END FLOOD THREAT. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
2. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN USHERS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TODAY, ALONG WITH A LOW END FLOOD THREAT. THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS ARE FULLY ENSCONCED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE
LOWERED THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TO SHOW THESE TRENDS AND INCREASED
POP. THE OVERALL LOW END FLOOD THREAT AND CONDITIONS SEVERE STORM
THREATS REMAIN.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH THIS MORNING, THE FULL EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BE FELT, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO STEEPEN.
AS A RESULT, A TRANSITION FROM SOLELY UPGLIDE-INDUCED SHOWERS TO
MORE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED RAIN RATES LOOKS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE CAMS DEPICT AN AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF CROSSING THE AREA
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM 1
TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE THE RESURGENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOST PORTIONS OF OUR NC AND SC ZONES...AS ANY DAYTIME EROSION
OF THE WEDGE OPENS THOSE ZONES UP TO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
LOCATIONS WHERE THE WEDGE MIXES OUT WILL BE EXPOSED TO A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING SOME 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE. DESPITE MODEST
SHEAR PROFILES, A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE WIND.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVER-ESTIMATED HOW WELL THE WEDGE WOULD
ERODE ON FRIDAY. WHETHER THAT'S A USEFUL BAROMETER FOR TODAY IS
QUESTIONABLE. ON THE ONE HAND, SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO WANE BY THIS AFTERNOON, A POINT TOWARD MORE EROSION TODAY, BUT
THERE'S ALSO A SIGNAL FOR HEAVIER, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
THAT WOULD LEND ITSELF TO BETTER DIABATIC MAINTENANCE OF THE WEDGE.
ALL TOLD, THE HREF IS TENDING TOWARD A STRONGER, MORE PERSISTENT
WEDGE TODAY, AND RECENT RUNS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND RRFS ARE TENDING
TOWARD KEEPING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ENTIRELY SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED, BUT IF, AND ONLY IF,
THIS CURRENTLY-FAVORED SCENARIO PANS OUT, CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AND SEVERE PROSPECTS WOULD BE VERY, VERY LIMITED.
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AFTER SUNSET. THOUGH AT LEAST
WIDELY SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION,
QPF TRENDS DOWNWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WE HIT A LULL IN SYNOPTIC
FORCING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN USHERS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT BROAD TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE UPPER RIDGING
WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CONFIGURATION IS FAVORABLE FOR STEADY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GULF, MEANING MAINLY DIURNAL PERIODS OF
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE. ENSEMBLES STILL
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY PLACE THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT
BY PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONE, PERIODS OF IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING
WOULD APPEAR POSSIBLE.
QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...AS GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY PUSHED THE SHORTWAVE THAT'LL
CROSS THE AREA DURING THAT PERIOD FARTHER NORTH, SUCH THAT IT'LL
HAVE LESS IMPACT ON OUR AREA. COMPARATIVELY, QPF HAS INSTEAD
TRENDED UPWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW
HERE SINCE LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. ONE THING THAT'S MORE CERTAIN
IS THIS: THE DREARY WEATHER ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE UPSTATE, WITH LIGHTER INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS REPORTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES STEADILY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. SOME EMBEDDED TS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED. A DECREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
NE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY TOGGLE TO THE SE,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD CRASH TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN
TONIGHT. RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ATOP
THE CAD WEDGE AND INTO NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS THE CAD ERODES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL. ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/RWH
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