496
FXUS62 KGSP 141031
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AMID A DRY AND STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BETWEEN NOON TO 8 PM FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM WITH VALUES
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2. HOT AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
DAILY RECORDS. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME RAINFALL TO OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY, BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AMID A DRY AND STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN NOON TO 8 PM FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM
WITH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME AS A BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SOUTHEAST UPPER
RIDGE WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH THICKNESSES REMAIN IN PLACE. IN THIS CASE, EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
MID 80S IN THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND 70S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A DEEP MIXING LAYER DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS INTO STRONGER
WINDS AT THE TOP (~825-800MB). EXPECT SOME LOW-END GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN
PLACE, DEWPOINT MIXING COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A CATEGORY
OR SO HIGHER COMPARED TO MONDAY WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 25-35% FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS DESPITE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN ACCOMPANIES
THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONCERNS
AND HIGHER HEAT STRESS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WAS
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE AND IS
IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA IS FOR ONGOING DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES GETTING
CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 30%. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY.
ON-AND-OFF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
AS NEAR-CRITICAL RHS AND HIGH HEAT STRESS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RHS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT,
SO DAILY FIRE DANGER PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME RAINFALL
TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH KEEPS WARM, SLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AN
EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY, WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. A MUCH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROF WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND PUSH A ROBUST COLD FRONT THRU OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.
A WEAKER COLD FRONT DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURS,
HOWEVER IT GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE BERMUDA HIGH. I CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
BUT ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. THE STRONGER FRONT
ON SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA, BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE FROPA STILL APPEARS PRETTY FAST AND THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER OVERALL. IT'S LOOKING
LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WE GET FROM THIS SYSTEM PROBABLY WON'T
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE AND APPROACH DAILY RECORDS,
THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOWER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25
TO 35% RANGE ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
VALUES BELOW 20% POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRE DANGER. TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR-NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY
DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK
HEATING. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPURTS OF FAIR WEATHER CU DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950
KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950
KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907
KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907
KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JPT
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