488
FXUS62 KGSP 170335
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1135 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM, DRY, AND UNPERTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND.
2. BEHIND A COLD FRONT, SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE PLANTS. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY, BRINGING A QUICK
RETURN TO LOW RH AND ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM, DRY, AND UNPERTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND.
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEEKEND AND LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO PUT A DENT IN ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OR ONGOING WILDFIRES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH HOT AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WE ARE UNLIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS ANY OF THE CLIMATE SITES AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH NORTHEAST GEORGIA LIKELY NEEDING ANOTHER FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30%. A BURN
BAN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AND A
BURN BAN WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA STARTING 7 AM
FRIDAY, REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THUS, FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DUE TO THESE
BURN BANS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BEHIND A COLD FRONT, SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY, BRINGING
A QUICK RETURN TO LOW RH AND ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
UNFORTUNATELY, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM EARLIER THINKING WITH
REGARD TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE WILL SHOW A ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WE STRONGLY
SUSPECT THAT IT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT
GET MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT, DASHING OUR HOPES FOR SOME RELIEF FROM
THE ONGOING DROUGHT. THE MODELS JUST DON'T SHOW THAT MUCH MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. AREAS ALONG
THE TN BORDER WILL BE THE LUCKY ONES AND SHOULD GET ENOUGH RAIN TO
NOTICE, BUT THE FRONT ORIENTATION AND TIME OF DAY ARE UNFAVORABLE
EAST OF THE MTNS. THE NEW MODEL BLEND QPF IS MOST DISAPPOINTING,
WITH ZERO RAIN OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH/EAST OF THERE. THE
DROUGHT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.
WHAT THE FRONT WILL DO IS BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS THAT
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-APRIL, SO IT WILL ALMOST FEEL LIKE A CHANGE OF SEASONS
IN REVERSE. THAT RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST/FREEZE
ISSUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
POST-FRONTAL PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE SOME BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS, BUT ONLY AT THE VERY HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 6K
FEET). MORE LIKELY WILL BE LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S, EVEN
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL NW FLOW TO KEEP
THE FROST FROM FORMING. THAT WON'T BE THE CASE ON MONDAY NIGHT, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES AND WE HAVE CLEAR SKY. FROST APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FORECAST TREND WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE PLANTS. THE AIR MASS SHOULD MODIFY BY TUESDAY NIGHT,
NEGATING THE FROST THREAT. TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK, AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO
DROP DOWN BELOW 25 PERCENT AGAIN EVERY DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THOUGH WIND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CONCERNING AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF
THE 00Z TAFS. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE NC
MOUNTAINS AT TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING,
BUT WILL LEAVE THE PROB30 AT KAVL, AS A SHRA MAY REACH THE TERMINAL
BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE, A PERIOD OF THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL
CROSS THE AREA, WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ONCE
WINDS DIE DOWN, THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD. THEY
WILL SHIFT TO FAVOR A NW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT, THEN TOGGLE BACK TO
SW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTN (BUT REMAINING NW AT KAVL).
OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEF RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG
THE NC MOUNTAINS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/ARK/MPR/PM
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