000
FXUS62 KGSP 070015
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 2 AM EDT THURSDAY.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A LOW END TORNADO THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE THROUGH 2 AM EDT. MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOOD
THREAT AS WELL.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LOW END TORNADO THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE THROUGH 2 AM EDT. MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOOD THREAT
AS WELL.
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PLOTS 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR, ROUGHLY 250-750 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWFA, SUGGESTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL TAKE PART ACROSS THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OF 15-25 KTS AND
100-150 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH WILL HELP AID IN THE VERY LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT WITH A WEAK, BRIEF TORNADO BEING POSSIBLE IN THE
TORNADO WATCH AREA WHERE TORNADOGENESIS IS MOST FAVORABLE. THE
KINEMATICS WILL WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH WILL LOWER
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD DEVELOP ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
STOUT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE EXPECTED MULTIPLE WAVES OF
CONVECTION BETWEEN THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD
PRODUCE A VERY LOCALIZED HYDRO THREAT. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY
SOILS AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS, CONFIDENCE FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS REMAINS VERY LOW. CAMS HAVE A FEW STRIPES OF 2-4",
MAINLY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PWAT VALUES OVER 1.50" IN
THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT A GOOD SOAKING WITH ANY STORM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL ACROSS THE CWFA,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1-2" OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BEFORE
THE CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWFA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AND TAKES IT'S TIME IN DOING SO. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT DUE TO IT'S SLOW PROGRESSION, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE LAST ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION,
MAINLY EAST OF THE I-26 AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE CLT METRO/I-77
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PROFILES DON'T SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT, BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
CAA WORKS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CWFA AS THE COLD
AIR SETTLES IN FOLLOWING A FULL FROPA. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, MAINLY
IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYERS SHOULD FULLY DECOUPLE
AND TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFERS IN
THE DETAILS WITH RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. IN
GENERAL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY AS THE THURSDAY FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE GULF COAST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG THE
FRONT AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, THEN DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT NOT ALL, AGREE
THAT SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. THAT SAID, THE LATEST ECMWF IS COMING IN WITH ONLY SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL EACH OF THOSE DAYS. OBVIOUSLY, DESPITE WHAT
THE MODEL BLEND HAS FOR THE FORECAST, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY, RISE TO AROUND NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND, BACK TO THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL MONDAY, AND BELOW NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ONGOING SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THUNDER CHANCES WILL
WANE OVERNIGHT, BUT SHRA WILL CONTINUE SO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA
AND VCTS MENTION FOR THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH ROUGHLY 04Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS CONTINUE BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT IS NOTED IN THE
00Z TAF UPDATE. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE FRONT,
MAINLY OVER KCLT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS,
SO KEPT THE PROB30 FOR TSRA GOING BETWEEN 20-24Z. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY EVENING AS CLOUDS SCATTER WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. ALL SITES WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AT
THIS POINT WITH LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/RWH
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