915
FXUS62 KGSP 241733
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE WEEKEND.
HEAT INDICES ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
2. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, KEEPING THE CWA RELATIVELY DRY. BY FRIDAY, THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL, STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE SURFACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC MIGRATES WESTWARD. THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH SHOULD
START ADVECTING MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, THE
HIGHER CHANCES (40-60%) FOR STORM ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT OCCURS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SHAPING UP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES FOR A
PORTION OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE SIGNALS FOR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OUT
WEST PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES CLIMB. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK SO FAR WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE EASTERN NC PIEDMONT,
INCLUDING CHARLOTTE. WITH THE MOISTURE RETURNING, THIS ALSO
INCREASES THE HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WELL. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE HEAT
INDICES OF 100-103 ON SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77. ON
SUNDAY, THESE HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE MORE SPREAD OUT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TO START NEXT WEEK, LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL FOR 100+ HEAT INDICES IN SOME
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE
EXACT VALUES MAY CHANGE A BIT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT'S ABOUT TO GET HOT AND
PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT AFFECTS
ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. IF YOU ARE
OUTDOORS, BE SURE TO PROPERLY HYDRATE, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID OVERHEATING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING SKIES AND
VSBY VFR. WINDS ARE VRB AT MOST SITES AND WILL REMAIN VRB OR EVEN
DIP TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTLY PICKUP LATE THURSDAY
MORNING OUT OF THE SW FOR TERMINALS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. MTN
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT WITH NO RAIN TODAY, NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL REACH KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY ONWARD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MTNS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP
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