861  
FXUS62 KGSP 090800  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN STALL OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN TONIGHT  
AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST,  
BRINGING RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS  
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAINY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND THROUGH THE  
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY: AN UPPER LOW DIPS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES, WHILE ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OVER  
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL PUSH THRU THE CWFA FROM THE NW TODAY. IN THE  
MEANTIME, THERE IS STILL ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH  
THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SKIES ARE CLEARING TO THE WEST, AND PATCHY  
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS ALREADY FORMING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND  
PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND THRU  
DAYBREAK, AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS CLEAR AND RADIATIONAL  
COOLING IMPROVES.  
 
THRU MIDDAY, THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER INTO A  
CU FIELD. THE 00Z CAMS LINE UP WITH THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN ON JUST  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE FRONT  
AS IT APPROACHES THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY  
AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN TRACK THRU THE PIEDMONT AND CLEAR TO  
OUR SE BY EARLY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE 35-40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR,  
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY, WITH GENERALLY 1500  
J/KG OF SBCAPE OR LESS. SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED  
TO MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE FAR SE  
EDGE OF THE CWFA. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF  
THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
SFC HIGH PRES WILL NOSE IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT, HELPING  
CLEAR THE SKIES AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH, AS  
THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IF SOME LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE CAN BE TAPPED WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW, CLOUD COVER MAY END  
UP THICKER AND KEEP MIN TEMPS UP, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF  
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY: COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE  
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, BUT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN EXTENSIVE AS A MID/UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS UP AND  
DEEPENS OVER THE MS DELTA REGION. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY  
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING  
THE DAY AS IT WILL BE FIGHTING TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR MOVING  
IN FROM THE NW AND N, THUS WE WILL KEEP A GRADIENT BETWEEN AREAS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY NORTH OF I-40 AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS  
THE LAKELANDS WHICH MAY SEE SOME RAIN BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL  
BE HELD AT LEAST FIVE DEGREES UNDER NORMAL. UNCERTAINTY CLIMBS  
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP  
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER LOUISIANA. A  
REX BLOCK PATTERN MAY FORM TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY, SUPPORTING HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVING PAST TO OUR NORTH. SHOULD THE LIGHT PRECIP MAKE  
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH, A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE COULD DEVELOP  
DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT WITH  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY: LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY  
RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS  
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH  
LIFTING A MID/UPPER LOW FROM THE MS DELTA REGION ON MONDAY SLOWLY  
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OH VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND  
MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST SIGNAL IN THE GFS, WITH GOOD  
UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND A DIFLUENT  
MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH GOOD DPVA AS WELL. MEANWHILE, EXCELLENT LOW  
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOUTHEAST MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB IS  
SHOWN TO IMPINGE UPON THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THE INGREDIENTS  
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO ALIGNMENT, SO  
IT'S HARD TO ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 4  
ERO. THAT BEING SAID, NO NEED TO MASH THE PANIC BUTTON JUST YET  
BECAUSE THERE'S STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE IMPORTANT  
DETAILS AND THE QPF STILL SEEMS MODEST, BUT WE SHALL BE KEEPING  
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH A  
REMNANT COOL POOL HANGING ON EAST OF THE MTNS, HELD IN PLACE BY  
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP, BUT ALAS THE LAST VESTIGES OF  
ANY REMAINING CAD SHOULD GET WIPED OUT TUESDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES  
THROUGH OUR VICINITY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY  
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PRECIP PROBS THRU TUESDAY NIGHT OR UNTIL THE  
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT FAR ENOUGH NE TO PUSH THE TROF AXIS OVERHEAD  
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SYSTEM OUT OF THE WAY FINALLY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD FEATURE A RETURN TO  
SOMETHING MORE NORMAL AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND  
UPPER RIDGING IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WARM UP  
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE, WITH A PRECIP  
PROB DISTRIBUTION MORE LIKE CLIMO.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA  
THRU ABOUT 9Z, AND SHOULD MAINLY BE SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS. PLENTY  
OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL HELP SLOW DOWN FOG AND LOW STRATUS  
FORMATION, BUT WITH MOIST GROUND FROM EVENING RAINFALL, THERE WILL  
LIKELY BE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL OR MOST OF OUR TAF SITES BEFORE  
DAYBREAK. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING  
TO VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW AND IS  
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT  
CROSSES THE PIEDMONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER ON COVERAGE,  
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 FOR TSRA AT KCLT AND KGSP/KGMU,  
WHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST. WILL GO WITH SHRA AT KAVL AND  
KHKY, WHICH WILL SEE THE FRONT MOVE THRU EARLIER IN THE DAY WHEN  
THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WNW AT KCLT  
AND KHKY, BUT REMAIN WSW IN THE UPSTATE UNTIL THIS EVENING, WHEN  
ALL SITES TOGGLE TO NE.  
 
OUTLOOK: BRIEF DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN, AN  
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AS WELL AS  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.  
 
 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...PM  
NEAR TERM...ARK  
SHORT TERM...PM  
LONG TERM...PM  
AVIATION...ARK  
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