807
FXUS62 KGSP 071105
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
705 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN EITHER SEVERE WEATHER OR A FLASH FLOOD RISK. COOL AND
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY FROST IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN EITHER SEVERE WEATHER OR A FLASH FLOOD RISK. COOL AND
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY FROST IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS.
COLD FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER
SOUTHWEST TO AL, CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST. BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOME ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN THRU THE
MORNING THOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA FROM NW TO SE BY MIDDAY OR SO. WHILE WINDS MAY START TO
TURN NORTHWESTERLY IN SPOTS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY,
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
EVENING. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOLER IT SEEMS LARGELY ON ACCOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER BEING SLOW TO CLEAR AFTER PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS
MORNING, AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED. MODEL LCLS ARE
LOWER THAN USUAL TODAY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS. PWATS WILL HOWEVER HAVE TRENDED LOWER
AND THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE DRIER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN WED
AND WED NIGHT. CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN HALF OF THE UPSTATE, WHERE WE
FEATURE A POP MENTION. SBCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MAY RESULT,
THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER AND SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT.
TEMPS MAY COOL SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE THE FRONT PASSES; LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG THE NC/TN
BORDER. BREEZY NW TO N WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WINDS SETTLE DOWN MORE QUICKLY
BEHIND THIS FRONT THAN MOST. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THE MOST DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL BEING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SURFACE DRYING IS MORE TYPICAL FOR MAY AND NOT EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO A RAPID CRASH IN DEWPOINTS. SOME HIGH ELEVATION SPOTS
MAY COOL INTO THE MID-30S, AND WITHOUT STRONG MIXING OR DRYING,
CONDITIONS MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FROST TO FORM WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO DECOUPLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD
APPEAR TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO START THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWER COULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL, CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. BY SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A CHANGE IN
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW AND DEVELOPS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE WEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS STILL ON
TRACK WITH A DECENT QPF RESPONSE WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS STARTING
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT, THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT RAINFALL OPPORTUNITY, WITH PROBABILITIES
PUTTING A 30-40% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING MORE THAN
0.5". SO WHILE THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE NECESSARY RAINFALL, IT'S NOT A
WHOLE LOT. AFTER MONDAY, LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAINTAINING A CALMER PATTERN TO THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WARM AND CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR MAY, WITH A DIP BEHIND THE FRONT AND A QUICK RETURN TO
NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING, BUT SOME
THREAT OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES THRU 14-15Z. EXPECT RAPID CHANGES
BETWEEN IFR AND LOW VFR AS SHOWERS COME AND GO. NOT SEEING MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, SO
TEMPOS FOR IFR AND SHRA WITHOUT ANY VCTS. WINDS LARGELY LOOK TO
REMAIN LIGHT/VRB DURING THE MORNING, BUT SW WOULD BE FAVORED BY THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN. COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY, ESTABLISHING NW FLOW FIRST AT KAVL, LATER
ELSEWHERE. SOME MIXING OF NW WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE DAY AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF W TO NW WINDS AT THE OTHER SITES,
WITH DIURNAL MIXING ALSO ALLOWING CIGS TO LIFT TOWARD 16-18Z. THOSE
W-NW WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO BACK INTO THE SW QUADRANT BEFORE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON AND INVOKES A SHIFT TO
NW THAT SHOULD LAST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW GUSTS
OF 15-20 KT LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SOME RISK
OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSES. COLD FRONT ALSO MAY SPAWN A
FEW LOWER-IMPACT SHRA OR TSRA, WARRANTING PROB30 FOR KCLT, KHKY,
KGSP, KGMU. THAT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT KAVL OR KAND.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY WITH RETURN OF SOME
MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/JCW
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