401
FXUS62 KGSP 042359
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TO RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
2. SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING STARTING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TO RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STAGNATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS, WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND LOW-LEVEL WAA
LEADING TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TO RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL THICKNESSES,
AND IT WILL RE-AMPLIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE DIGS
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS, HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW RECORDS. THE EXCEPTION IS WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WHERE GSP AND AVL ARE JUST A SMIDGE BELOW RECORDS AND THE
81 FORECAST AT CLT WOULD BREAK IT...BUT WILL SEE HOW SUBSEQUENT NBM
RUNS HANDLE THIS ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH IN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL WAA TO KEEP RHS FROM REACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING STARTING ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIPRES WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT HIGHER
PWAT VALUES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BY FRIDAY, RICHER DWPTS COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MTNS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED ANTICYCLONE. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A TOUCH LESS SUPPRESSED
ON SATURDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS TOWARD
THE MTNS AND UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A TAD. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
FEATURE SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT DEVELOPMENT
COULD STRUGGLE SE OF I-85 WHICH IS FURTHER FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE
AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. WITHIN THE FLAT SW FLOW ALOFT, WEAK
S/WV ENERGY AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH
BLENDED MODEL PROBABILITIES INCREASING TO LIKELY REGIONWIDE. THE
WARM BUT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER CONTINUING ALL
ACROSS THE SE CONUS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY FORCED S/WV, FOR
MORE THAN TOKEN SHOWER CHANCES TO BE REALIZED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, BUT BY 10Z SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL ARISE AS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD CEILING. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IT WON'T BE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK OR PERHAPS AN HOUR
OR TWO LATER THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP, BUT SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FORCING AN MVFR-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK STARTING AROUND 10Z. OPTED FOR A TEMPO STRADDLING DAYBREAK
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OF OPINION, BUT HAVE A HUNCH THAT LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AND EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS. IF THE CEILING RESTRICTION DEVELOPS, IT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
IN THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SW SFC
WINDS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SPRINGLIKE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS EACH NIGHT,
AND BRIEF MVFR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN MID/LATE MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1955 20 1960 60 2004 5 1960
KCLT 84 1955 31 1960 62 1955 12 1960
1880
KGSP 80 1976 31 1960 61 2004 12 1960
1905 1976
1961
RECORDS FOR 03-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1908 28 1960 58 1961 5 1960
KCLT 80 2022 33 1901 62 1961 10 1960
KGSP 79 1974 37 1948 63 1961 16 1960
1915 1901
RECORDS FOR 03-07
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1974 23 1920 61 1956 15 1960
KCLT 85 1974 30 1899 63 2022 14 1899
1956
KGSP 83 1974 36 1920 62 1961 13 1901
1901 1956
RECORDS FOR 03-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 1974 23 1996 57 1921 8 1920
KCLT 84 1974 36 1989 59 1946 16 1920
KGSP 84 1974 35 1899 56 1921 14 1901
1899
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CSH/PM/TDP
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