864
FXUS62 KGSP 261836
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER
THAT, WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY: WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WARM FRONTAL BAND/ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL
AREA ACROSS THE SMOKIES AND VICINITY, EVEN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN
PRECIP FOR SEVERAL HOURS HAVE ONLY PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH SO FAR TODAY. SO, WHILE RADAR RETURNS HAVE BROKEN CONTAINMENT
IN TERMS OF OUR AREA OF MENTIONABLE POPS, ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FORECAST APPEARS IN ORDER, WITH GENERAL 20-40%
CHANCES ADVERTISED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES WIND DOWN STEADILY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AS WARM FRONTAL
BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE RETAINED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, AS A S/SE/WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST. WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING EXTENSIVE...AND IN
SOME CASES FILLING BACK IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE THINNING...OR WILL
THIN THIS AFTERNOON, NAMELY ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE, 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS
EXPECTED TO OOZE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IS FORECAST
TO BE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT HIGH INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE LOCATION WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL CESSATION OF
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODIFICATION OF WEAK HYBRID COLD AIR
DAMMING REGIME/THINNING OF CLOUD COVER BY SAT AFTERNOON. AS SUCH,
TOMORROW'S MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...ACTUALLY TOPPING OUT VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EDT FRIDAY: WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING LINGERING ATOP
THE SE CONUS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED, AS
PIEDMONT TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80 IN SPOTS. TO START OFF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITIONING, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET WX DAY ON MONDAY.
COINCIDENT WITH THE WARMING FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEG F ABOVE SUNDAY'S READINGS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY: SOUTHERN PLAINS ENERGY SUPPORTING A WEAKLY
FORCED COOL FRONT WILL EJECT TOWARD THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
MODEL BLENDS AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DECENT RESPONSE AS THIS
FEATURE SHEARS ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY BEING ABLE TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH INCREASINGLY MORE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG BY
THE TIME FORCING MAKES IT TO THE PIEDMONT.
THE PATTERN KEEPS A PROGRESSIVE LOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE IS THE LLVL RIDGE OF VERY WARM AIR WITH
DOES NOT GET DISPLACED, SO WE EXPECT LOWER ELEVATION DAILY MAXIMUMS
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
TUESDAY'S WEAK S/WV PASSAGE, THERE MAY BE A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
MINIMA ON WEDNESDAY BUT RISING BACK TO MORE SOLID CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS BROAD FRONTAL ZONE NEARS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT TAF SITES EXCEPT KCLT (WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING) FOR THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD, WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY EARLY EVENING. A BAND
OF -RA MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT TERMINALS SUCH AS KHKY AND KAVL THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF 5-6SM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING AT MOST SITES AROUND
DAYBREAK. CIGS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
IMPROVING AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE E/SE AFTER
SUNRISE SAT.
OUTLOOK: DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH MORE
OF A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON WED.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JDL
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