569
FXUS62 KGSP 031047
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SYSTEM TRENDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING, AS WELL AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN AVERY COUNTY AND AT
VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF OTHER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
2. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT VERY PATCHY FROST IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
3. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHILE APPEARING LOW AT THIS TIME, HAS STARTED
TO TREND UPWARD IN THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN AVERY COUNTY
AND AT VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF OTHER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES FELL
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS BROAD SWATHS OF THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS,
EVEN IN SOME AREAS OMITTED FROM THE FROST ADVISORY. A FEW VERY HIGH
ELEVATIONS DID FREEZE INCLUDING MANY LOCATIONS IN AVERY COUNTY. THE
EXISTING ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN UNTIL EXPIRATION
AT 9 AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT VERY PATCHY FROST
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN REMAINING OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. ALOFT, HEIGHTS RISE
GRADUALLY OVER THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS
TREND WARMER EACH DAY, WITH A PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE 7-10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE SUNDAY VERSUS MONDAY. THAT SAID, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER STILL MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING. SOME
PARTICULARLY SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO
THE MID 30S, AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW AREAS MAY
SEE PATCHY FROST AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHILE APPEARING LOW AT THIS TIME, HAS STARTED
TO TREND UPWARD IN THE NEW GUIDANCE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEVELOPING
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THE CWA, THIS ENHANCED
AREA OF FORCING INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A NON-ZERO SEVERE RISK. TAKING A LOOK AT THE PARAMETERS,
MOISTURE STARTS TO RAMP UP WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO START THE
WEEK AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST LONG-TERM GUIDANCE
SPINS UP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
SWINGS IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH COULD HELP TO FUEL THE SEVERE RISK FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. STRONG SHEAR OF 50-60KTS LOOKS TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM AS
WELL. ADDITIONALLY, QPF RESPONSE IS HIGHER, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
STRONG CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME, RAIN TOTALS FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY HAVE A 40-60% CHANCE TO EXCEED 1.00",
WHICH IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE
HIGHER PROBS ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, BUT IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES, COULD BE SEEING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. AS
WITH ANY STORM SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT, A LOT CAN CHANGE, INCLUDING HOW
DEEP THE TROUGH DIGS, TIMING OF THE BETTER FORCING WITH INSTABILITY,
AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE ACTUALLY RETURNS. GIVEN ALL THIS, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE AREA AND BRING RAIN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THESE PARAMETERS, CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE
EVENT GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KAND THIS MORNING: DRYING BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT
WAS SLOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT, AND FOG HAS PERSISTED IN THE AREA.
IT LIKELY WILL TAKE UNTIL 13Z (MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE LONGER) FOR
INSOLATION TO ERODE THE DECK, AND WILL MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS IN
TEMPO UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE: VFR. ASIDE FROM A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS
OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING, GENERALLY SKC TODAY. LIGHT N
TO NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING; EXCEPT AT KAVL, THESE SHOULD BACK
TO SW WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH 16-18Z, PROBABLY REMAINING
SW'LY TONIGHT IF NOT GOING CALM AGAIN.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048>053-058-
059-062>065-501>506.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033.
SC...NONE.
CP/JCW
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