581
FXUS62 KGSP 151035
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS IS LOW.
2. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST AND COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
PLACES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS IS LOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A MID/UPPER
TROF WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AS
A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS INCORPORATES
SOME OF THE UPPER ENERGY LIFTING OUT FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT ONE MORE SEASONALLY HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FCST HIGH TEMPS GETTING BACK UP INTO RECORD TERRITORY. CHANGES
WILL BE IN PROGRESS BY THE TIME FRIDAY GETS HERE WITH THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER TROF DIGGING SHARPLY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FCST AREA, BUT IT PROBABLY WON'T GET
HERE BEFORE TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
MORE. THIS MIGHT NOT BE WARM ENOUGH TO REACH RECORDS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MTNS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AT 850 MB. AT
THIS TIME, ANY WIND GUSTS THAT WOULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE PEAKS ABOVE 5K FEET. AN ADVISORY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE RELATIVELY
POOR AS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOSED OFF, BUT THAT WON'T STOP UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES AROUND
TO NW. A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE SUMMIT OF MT MITCHELL
EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST NBM SEEMS TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT A BIT
AND SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE DAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A SMALL PRECIP PROB OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD ALSO
PLAY A ROLE BY MAKING LAPSE RATES STEEPER AND ALLOWING FOR SOME
WEAK SHALLOW BUOYANCY, SO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THINK
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST AND COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING IN
SOME PLACES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN THE FIRST TRUE
AUTUMN CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. YOU'RE GOING TO NOTICE IT...AS
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THE SLIGHT DELAY IN FRONTAL PASSAGE ALL BUT
NEGATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
FROSTY/LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH GREATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE SETTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PROVIDE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SITUATION LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE MTNS, WHILE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING DOWN TO FREEZING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY,
THIS IS ONLY ABOUT A WEEK LATE. MEANWHILE, EAST OF THE MTNS,
DON'T BE TOO SUPRISED IF PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WE OFTEN UNDERFORECAST THE FROST
POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST COOL AUTUMN AIR MASS. THERE WILL BE SOME
FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE, BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY/MON NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING TO RIGHT
AROUND CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY/PRECIP FREE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS SEASONABLY DRY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND LAKE/RIVER FOG IN
PLACE THIS MORNING CAUSING A WIDE VARIETY IN CONDITIONS AT
KAVL/KAND. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH VFR INTO THE EVENING
WITH CIRRUS AND SOME HIGH BASED STRATOCU. MOUNTAIN VALLEY, AND
POSSIBLY LAKE/RIVER, FOG RETURNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
BECOMES S TO SW THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MTN
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS. A ROBUST COLD FRONT COULD BRING SCT
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTN AND THE
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907
1970
1928
KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006
KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907
1941 1970
RECORDS FOR 10-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939
KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939
1925
KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907
1911
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM/RWH
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