874
FXUS62 KGSP 091131
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND, ULTIMATELY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1:15 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLIPPERY
ROADS WILL BE A CONCERN THRU THE MORNING FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS MORNING,
ANY MELTED SNOW OR LINGERING SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY
ROADS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
LINGERING BLACK ICE THRU THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM-OUT BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR FCST AREA
THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY, BRINGING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING THE CONCERN FOR SLIPPERY ROADS TO DIMINISH.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN/SCT OUT THRU THE DAY, THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AND WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH SUNSHINE UNTIL THE
LATE AFTERNOON AT MANY LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA.
HIGHS WILL PROBABLY RECOVER MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC
MTN VALLEYS, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
WARM MUCH ABOVE THE MID 30S TODAY. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STRONG WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
2) BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THE TN BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL COLD FRONT.
AS OF 1239 AM EST TUESDAY: THE GREATEST CONCERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL
ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST DAY, AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER TROF TO OUR
WEST. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TO
DO WITH HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. THE GFS AND HREF WOULD SUGGEST
MIXING DEEP ENOUGH TO REALLY TAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND HAVE
ENOUGH POTENTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BRING DOWN WIND GUSTS THAT
WOULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER,
THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AND HAS GUST POTENTIAL MUCH MORE
IN LINE WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND BELOW CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY,
WE HAVE ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OR TWO TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL
AND TO SEE IF THE NAM AND SOME OF THE OTHER CAMS HAVE THE BETTER
MIXING/GUST POTENTIAL.
THE OTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEW GUIDANCE IS A TREND TOWARD BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE
TN BORDER. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE COHERENT SFC BOUNDARY
DRIVEN THROUGH BY THE SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY, WITH AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON A DEVELOPING WNW
LOW LEVEL FLOW. WE END UP WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR THE TN BORDER AS A RESULT, PROBABLY MOSTLY A LIGHT
SNOW CHANCE BECAUSE OF THE COLD ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE MTNS. IT SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP THOUGH, LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MAYBE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS, SO WELL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL. THE GUIDANCE BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EAST
OF THE MTNS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT, SO THE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY
HAVE TRENDED DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO, INTO THE REALM OF FIVE BELOW
NORMAL OR THEREABOUTS. FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
1) ARCTIC COLD FRONT DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS.
2) THE COLD AIR MASS WILL FINALLY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
AS OF 1252 AM EST TUESDAY: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS DOING THAT
MOVING TARGET THING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS IT CONTINUES
TO BACK AWAY FROM ANY PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND ANY MOISTURE/SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IS DIRECTED MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO, THE FCST
PRECIP PROBS HAVE FALLEN OFF TO A SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THAT MIGHT STILL BE OVERDONE. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS NOTED WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WITH A FLATTER/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING LONGER INTO THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, A STRONGER WAVE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY RESULTS IN A BIG UPWARD BUMP IN THE
TEMPS OWING TO SOME WARM ADVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS, TO THE POINT
WHERE WE HAVE A DECENT SHOT TO GET A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT SUN. QUITE A CHANGE FROM
WHAT THE SATURDAY FORECAST LOOKED LIKE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS MORE OF A MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING WAVE, MEANING THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FOR A BAND
OF PRECIP PRECEDING WHAT WOULD BE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT RUNNING
UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
MODEST AT THIS POINT AND THE QPF REFLECTS THAT. SUNDAY NO LONGER
LOOKS QUITE AS CHILLY AS AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS WILL STILL BE IN
THE STRONG WNW DOWNSLOPE, SO WE MIGHT STILL BE AROUND NORMAL, AND
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE COLD ADVECTION TO WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTNS. BUT, IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY, AND MONDAY
STILL LOOKS FIFTEEN BELOW AVERAGE. THE AIR MASS MODIFIES QUICKLY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND ALREADY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW-END MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, DESPITE OBSERVING SOME HOLES IN
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY
LOW WRT HOW QUICKLY THESE CIGS WILL SCT OUT TODAY, BUT I STILL
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A NE TO ENE DIRECTION OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THEY
WILL TOGGLE AROUND TO S TO SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 4 TO
8 KTS. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW-END GUSTS
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
NW FLOW PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER DRY CON-
DITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page