315
FXUS62 KGSP 220801
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2018
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COOLER CONDITIONS
RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY: PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOWER
ELEVATION LAKE AND RIVER FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND FROM FROSTY AND FREEZING CONDITIONS UNDER
CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES. A LIGHT, DRY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE SFC HIGH TRANSLATES EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR WITH INCREASING CIRRUS ELSEWHERE. COULD BE MORE PATCHY
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY: LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROJECT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY MORNING, AS A QUIET ONE. WITH
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE CENTRAL US BACK TO THE WEST, UPPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN-NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. WITH
NW FLOW AND THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY: FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE ANTICIPATED
GULF SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THIS POTENTIAL, BOTH TEMPORALLY AND
SPATIALLY, AS MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO LACK AS IT HAS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPED SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF FL AND RIDE UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
(TYPICAL MILLER A SETUP) FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP WOULD BRING RAIN
(POTENTIALLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES), THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE BRIEF AS A ANOTHER SYSTEM
DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS FOR THE ECMWF,
WHILE THE GULF SYSTEM IS PROGGED AS WELL, LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS IT
THROUGH GA AND CENTRAL SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS IT HUGS THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF NW FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED, BRIEF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
SATURDAY. NOTICEABLY, THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS DISPLACED FROM THAT SUGGESTED OF THE GFS, LOWERING
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY, AS
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DIGS WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW,
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY THUS FAR, HAVE KEPT WITH A GENERAL BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO OVERALL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKY WITH CALM
OR LIGHT N WIND OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO WIND SHOULD COME UP LIGHT S
BY LATE MORNING THEN SW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND DURING THE EVENING. ONLY A FEW THIN CIRRUS WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD. THAT SAID, SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER SC AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR THRU THURSDAY. PRECIP AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ070>072-082.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
SYNOPSIS...DEO/SGL
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...RWH
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