535
FXUS62 KGSP 181101
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES.
2. A COLD FRONT BRINGS BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DROUGHT RELIEF WILL BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES.
AS ADVERTISED, WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR OUR SUMMER PREVIEW FOR THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS A BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE EAST COAST SUPPORTS A BERMUDA HIGH. NO BIG SURPRISES
HERE IN THE NEW GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN 7-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 90S IN MANY SPOTS EAST
OF THE MTNS, BUT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE RECORDS. STILL NO
INDICATION THAT DEWPOINT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE APPARENT TEMPS
ANY WARMER THAN AIR TEMPS. THE CAMS KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY TODAY AND
HOLD VERY LITTLE PROMISE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THUS,
WE SHALL BAKE AS IF IN AN OVEN.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A
WAVE IN THE NRN STREAM WILL FLATTEN OUT THE EASTERN RIDGE, SO A
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE MTNS FROM THE OH
VALLEY. THE LATEST BATCH OF MODELS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
FARTHER AWAY THAN EXPECTED, HOWEVER, SO THE CHANCES OF GETTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MTNS ARE POOR. THE NEW FCST WILL HAVE A
GRADIENT IN PRECIP CHANCE OVER THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH A STRONG DIURNAL SIGNAL, SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET. THIS
PERIOD IS BEYOND THE CAMS, SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE PRECIP CHANCES
MIGHT ULTIMATELY IMPROVE, ESPECIALLY IF SOMETHING GETS ORGANIZED
TO THE WEST AND MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT BRINGS BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DROUGHT RELIEF
WILL BE LIMITED.
THE MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS SOMETHING OF A
MOVING TARGET BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE BOUNDARY WILL EVER TRULY MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE ALREADY STARTS TO
REBUILD THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH
COULD LIFT WHATEVER REMNANT THERE WAS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY SATURDAY. EITHER WAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK...UNSETTLED...SO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL PRECIP PROBS ARE STILL IN ORDER. WEAK COLD AIR
DAMMING REMAINS APPARENT FOR FRIDAY, MAYBE WITH A STRONGER SIGNAL
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AS THE PARENT HIGH WOULD
MOVE AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE'D GET BACK INTO A WARM SECTOR FOR
SATURDAY. SO, AFTER ONE MORE WARM DAY ON THURSDAY, TEMPS COOL DOWN
TO SOMETHING ROUGHLY FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY BECAUSE
OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP, THEN IT'S A RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE ABOVE
CLIMO PRECIP PROBS. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE CHANCES OF GETTING
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS LOW, BUT AT LEAST
IT LOOKS LIKE THE DROUGHT WOULD NOT GET ANY WORSE THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONTINUED VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A FEW ORPHANED PATCHES OF VFR-LEVEL CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WERE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE MTNS AND
UPSTATE SC. OTHERWISE, A LIGHT S WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD POP UP A FEW STRATOCU WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RAISE WIND A BIT FROM
THE S TO SW, BUT GUSTS ARE NOT YET INDICATED. MORE CLEAR SKY AND
VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, EXCEPT PERHAPS IN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, WHERE PATCHY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP BY LATE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM
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