957
FXUS62 KGSP 270656
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES HAVE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
2. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE THRU A LONG WAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY THRU FRIDAY. THESE WILL WORK
TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND START TO SWING THE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS SET UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED PRECIP CHANCES. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN, THEN COVERAGE SHIFTS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER, ENOUGH BREAKING UP OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A WARM, MUGGY DAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE
OF ACTIVITY, AND PWATS IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE, ISOLATED, LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN AND NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL, SOLID 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
MORE UPPER SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. THE DAY 2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
HAS OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WHILE LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BY MIDWEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL IN, AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR
GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE WEST, TAPERING DIURNAL CONVECTION
CHANCES TO MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED
IN THE PIEDMONT. BY MONDAY, CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE USUAL NC MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT, HUMID
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO
THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY
AND THE CHARLOTTE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A MIX OF LOW, MID, AND HIGH CLOUDS TO START
THE 06Z TAFS, BUT THE MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, ALLOWING
MORE MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
BUT THERE COULD IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN SPOTS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS,
AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE, AT BEST, AS GUIDANCE IS NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH IFR WILL DEVELOP. WHATEVER CLOUDS
AND FOG DOES FORM, WILL PERSIST PAST SUNRISE, LIFTING TO VFR LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL,
EXPECT CONVECTION TO START IN THE MTNS, THEN DRIFT EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT, LATE AFTN THRU LATE EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD
WANE OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD (EXCEPT POSSIBLE
GUSTS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS), FAVORING A S TO SW DIRECTION IN
THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK: GOOD DIURNAL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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