906
FXUS62 KGSP 161321
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
921 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LOWER AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE MORNING FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUING
ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND THINK ABOUT
WHERE YOU WOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
YOUR LOCATION.
2. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. COLD AIR MASS LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS AND THINK ABOUT WHERE YOU WOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF A
WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
THE QLCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE I-77 CORRIDOR AT 9 AM. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE. THIS LINE IS ALREADY ABOUT 2 HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
COMPARED TO WHAT THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CAMS WERE SHOWING.
ON THIS PATH, THE LINE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUR EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES
BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON. THIS EARLIER EXIT IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA
AS IT DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO STRENGTHEN IF MORE
ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WERE TO OCCUR DURING PEAK
HEATING.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOW-TOPPED AND SHEAR DOMINANT OWING
TO THE MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. ADDITIONALLY, RADAR IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN THE REFLECTIVITY ALONG THIS QLCS WAS NOT THE MOST ORGANIZED
WITH NUMEROUS BREAKS ALONG THE LINE. HOWEVER, THESE LINE BREAKS IS
OFTEN WHERE THE STRONGEST WIND REACHES THE SURFACE.
EXPECT GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND GOOD MIXING. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LINE AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS WILL BE EARLIER THAN THE NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE TODAY WITH A
COLD AIR MASS RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A PRECIPITATION
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 3500
FEET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AMOUNTS AROUND 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. THE
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF THESE AMOUNTS HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER.
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. WINDS
TURN TO THE NW AND BECOME VERY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH, SO
THE WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS WELL PLACED. THAT SAID, GUSTS TO 35
MPH AND POSSIBLY 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS, AND SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE GUSTY
WINDS LINGER INTO TUESDAY, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY'S WINDS. THE
COLD AIR MASS WILL BRING LOWS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
TUESDAY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD AIR MASS LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN, WITH THE NBM
SHOWING A 100% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 33 DEGREES
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GSP CWA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN, BUT THE NBM SHOWS LOWER PROBABILITIES (~40% TO
70%) OF T<33, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS,
CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IS LOWER COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF LOWS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BLOOMED FROM THE RECENT ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER WILL REMAIN
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THESE COLD TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GETTING PINCHED OFF FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CENTER
ITSELF OVER FLORIDA/THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A MOSTLY
DRY AND WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL, BUT WILL MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS END UP NEAR
TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER FOR MOST
AREAS AS WELL.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. HAVE TEMPOS FOR TSRA AND STRONG VARIABLE WINDS WITH MVFR
RESTRICTION FOR THIS. ONCE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH, MVFR SHRA
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS. WHEN THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, SKIES CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS TURN W TO NW AND REMAIN GUSTY. WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. KAVL
SEES S WIND AND LLWS, TURNING NW BEHIND THE LINE WITH WINDS
BECOMING VERY GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS REMAIN
ALL NIGHT WITH LOW VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
CHANCE OF FLURRIES THERE, BUT TOO LOW FOR THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: GUSTS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY AND COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH VFR THROUGH FRIDAY
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.
JRK/RWH/AR
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