611
FXUS62 KGSP 221107
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND THAT MOVE TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 535 AM SATURDAY: FOR THE MORNING UPDATE, CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWED FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, DROPPING OVERNIGHT
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FORECAST. THEREFORE, MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS. OTHER THAN THESE MILD CHANGES, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A STOUT CONTINENTAL HIGH REMAINS
DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, SUPPRESSING ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA, BUT WITH MOISTURE
BEING HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH, IT WILL PASS UNEVENTFULLY. WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR FIRE CONCERNS, THE
PATTERN OF PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NOW AND THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, BRINGS LIGHT WINDS, BUT LOWER RH VALUES. WITH NO RAIN ON THE
HORIZON, FUEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE, RAISING CONCERNS
FOR FIRES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY
AND START WARMING BACK UP THROUGH THE NEAR AND INTO THE NEXT
FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SAT: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
PROMOTED BY CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE
STILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE GA/SC COAST OVER
THE PERIOD. SOME DPVA SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS FAR NORTH; SATURATION
IN THE 925-700MB LAYER IS NOT SEEN NORTH OF I-20 SO PRECIP CHANCES
ARE BEING KEPT LESS THAN 15%. SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE VARIES A FEW
HOURS IN TIMING BETWEEN THE MAJOR MODELS, BUT MORE OR LESS LOOKS
LIKELY TO CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
ON TUESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS THE
MOST AMPLIFIED AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE WAVE, SO IT IS THE ONLY
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUGGESTING LIGHT QPF MIGHT OCCUR IN OUR CWA,
EVEN THEN ONLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER. A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGEST PRECIP COULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA,
BUT OVERALL THE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE JUST LOOKS TOO
PALTRY TO WARRANT A POP MENTION.
THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SUCH THAT TEMPS SHOULD TREND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER EACH DAY, BUT LARGELY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO PLAY
A ROLE. TEMPS START THE PERIOD SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MAXES THAT DAY AND FOR
MINS MONDAY MORNING. THE WARMING TREND YIELDS MAXES 10-12 ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LOOK UNLIKELY TO REBOUND ANY
FASTER GIVEN THE LACK OF A MOISTURE RETURN MECHANISM, SO RELATIVELY
LOW MINIMUM RH PERSISTS. WITH FUELS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRY
FURTHER EACH DAY, FIRE WEATHER MIGHT BECOME MORE CRITICAL. WINDS
LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVERALL, BUT THE WINDIEST DAY MAY PROVE TO BE
TUESDAY IF THE SHORTWAVE IS SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 250 AM SAT: TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK SLIGHTLY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEIGHTS MAY REBOUND
SLIGHTLY BUT QUICKLY FALL AGAIN WED NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED FULL-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE, BRINGING THE FIRST
MENTIONABLE POP CHANCES OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WED NIGHT AND THEN
PEAKING THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 30-50% RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT PASSES QUICKLY AND
POPS THUS ARE NO BETTER THAN SLIGHT-CHANCE IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z
FRI, BUT A SECONDARY TRAILING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REPLENISH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE, SO TEMPS TREND COLDER AND NW FLOW SNOW IS THUS
INCLUDED IN THE MOUNTAINS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. TEMPS RETURN TO
ABOUT NORMAL IN THE PIEDMONT FRI AND A LITTLE BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT ALL SITES BY MID THIS MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBY/CIGS FOR THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. HIGH
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page