887
FXUS62 KGSP 200601
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DETAILS WERE ADDED FOR THE CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. QPF HAS INCREASED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION PERSISTS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE DRY
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
2. HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND,
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS, AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS EVENING, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
AS OF AROUND 1AM, RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED A MATURE MCS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD FOLLOWING
THE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW, WHICH WAS NEARLY DUE WESTERLY ACROSS
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF DEEP
UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL INDIANA EASTWARD INTO THE ALLEGHENEYS. A BANK OF
STRATUS WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, AND DOWN INTO
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY, BUT WAS ACTIVELY SHRINKING.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE MCS SETTLING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH DAWN, AND PASSING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE GSP CWA EVEN
AS IT DETERIORATES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SHEAR PROFILES AND THE
ENVIRONMENTAL WIND; NO MEMBERS OF THE 00Z SUITE OF CAMS DEPICT MUCH,
IF ANY IMPACT IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BY DAY, HOWEVER, LINGERING
CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM THE MCS MAY HINDER DESTABILIZATION, WITH SOME
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RRFS FEATURING BARELY 1000-1200 J/KG
SBCAPE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY MID- TO LATE-AFTERNON,
THOUGH, SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOURCES FEATURE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSHING THE COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO OUR AREA, RESULTING IN IMPROVING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND INCITING A ROUND OF LATER-THAN-
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CAMS AT THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE A
GREAT HANDLE ON HOW, EXACTLY, CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE, BUT THERE'S
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
GUN FOR A ROUND OF SEMI-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, DEVELOPING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, RESPECTABLE LAPSE
RATES, AND SOME 2000-2500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THIS IS ENOUGH
TO EXPECT PERHAPS A FEW ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
SPC'S MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS REASONABLE, IF PERHAPS
CONDITIONAL UPON SUCCESSFUL INITIATION SO LATE IN THE DAY.
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE OHIO VALLEY COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THAT AFTERNOON, AGAIN WITHIN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DECENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THAT SHEAR, HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, SO UPSCALE GROWTH AND STORM TRAINING MAY
ULTIMATELY POSE A GREATER THREAT THAN SEVERE. A FEW DETERMINISTIC
MODELS EVEN DEPICT A MESOLOW-LIKE FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, FURTHER ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
INDEED, THE 00Z HREF HAS COME IN WITH 3- AND 6-HOUR PMMS OF 2-3"
OF QPF...AND THIS DOESN'T YET ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL RECEIVED AFTER
00Z SATURDAY. THE AREA OF HIGHER CONCERN WOULD APPEAR TO BE ALONG
OR EAST OF I-77, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THE HIGHEST TOTALS
WILL EVEN BE WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR
THE 12Z CAMS TO FULLY CAPTURE THE EVENT. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
RAINFALL MAY TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH MODELS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE BY THIS POINT IN TIME
(THOSE WHICH DEVELOP A MESOLOW ALSO TEND TO PUNT THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, FASTER, RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR OUR
AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THOSE WHICH DO NOT PRODUCE A MESOLOW ALLOW THE
FRONT TO LINGER LONGER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN OUR AREA).
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS,
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR WEST,
WITH A 597DM UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ACTUALLY IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. NONETHELESS, WE REMAIN WITHIN A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS, WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW- TO
MID- 70S. WHATEVER BENEFIT WE REAPED FROM MONDAY NIGHT'S COLD
FRONT HAVE LARGELY BEEN ERODED, AND WE ARE AGAIN UNDER THE GUN
FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL FEATURE
WEAKLY WARM-ADVECTIVE SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THE NEXT TWO DAYS,
WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN SOUPY DEWPOINTS AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPS. TO
WIT, TODAY'S HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
100S ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND I-77 CORRIDOR, AND THE UPPER 90S OR
AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.
ON FRIDAY, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN SURGE INTO
THE LOWER 100S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85
POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO 105 OR GREATER. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED,
BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PLACEMENT
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA, PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY; THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE ABOVE HEAT INDEX FORECAST WORKS OUT.
BY SATURDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A COOLER POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD
HELP KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS
OF COOLER, MORE SUPPRESSED WEATHER APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORKWEEK, BUT BY TUESDAY LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. DESPITE LITTLE CLARITY ON WHAT THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN WILL LOOK LIKE (AND THUS WHAT THE CONVECTIVE/RAINFALL
FORECAST WILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND BEYOND) IT AT LEAST APPEARS
THAT MOST SOLUTIONS KEEP US MORE SEASONABLY COOL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A DECK OF MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT, BUT CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND SHOWS NO
SIGNS IT'LL IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY
LIMITED CHANCES FOR VALLEY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING, AND THEN A
REBOUND IN S/SW WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY FOR ALL
SITES (EXCEPT KAVL, WHICH WILL SEE ITS WINDS CHANNELED OUT OF
THE W/NW AS IS TYPICAL). WHILE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN'T
BE RULED OUT TODAY, MAINLY OVER RIDGETOPS...THINK THAT THE BEST
TS CHANCES WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING,
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE
CONSISTENCY IN HI-RES MODELS AT THIS STAGE, OPTED FOR PROB30S AT
A FEW SITES IN THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAINS; CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE UPSTATE SITES.
OUTLOOK: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, A DRIER PATTERN SHOULD
ARRIVE. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR
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