043
FXUS62 KGSP 081731
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST. THE AVIATION SECTION
HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THOUGH A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR
SHADED AREAS. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN UNATTENDED VEHICLES.
2. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THOUGH A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR
SHADED AREAS. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN UNATTENDED VEHICLES.
THE BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
STORM COVERAGE, YET TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY HOT THROUGH
SATURDAY...GENERALLY FIVE DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR, BUT DEWPOINT
IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIT MORE
BREEZY THAN USUAL IN THE AFTERNOONS, WHICH MIGHT FEEL LIKE A BIT
OF A RELIEF, BUT MORE LIKELY THE RELIEF WILL COME FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION
COURTESY OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE NRN STREAM, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH PERHAPS ON SUNDAY. THE INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER MAY DROP THE TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL SUNDAY,
BUT MORE LIKELY THAT WILL HAPPEN FOR MONDAY. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING EARLY IN
THE WEEK BECAUSE OF A TRANSITORY SFC HIGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND,
BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WELCOME
RELIEF...IF IT DEVELOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
FOR THE AFTERNOON, THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN PART OF METRO
CHARLOTTE, BUT REALLY ANYWHERE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE STORMS
DEVELOP. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC-BASED CAPE IN THE
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, BUT WITH DCAPE ABOVE 800 J/KG EVERYWHERE
EAST OF THE MTNS, AND SFC-DELTA THETA-E AROUND 30K. THUS, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WET MICROBURSTS OUTSIDE THE MTNS, EVEN
IF THE HRRR SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NC.
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH IMPROVING
COVERAGE EACH DAY, ABOVE CLIMO, AND FAVORING THE MTNS THE MOST
EVEN IF THE PULSE-SEVERE RISK MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST OF THE
MTNS. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM MICROBURSTS. AS THE COVERAGE IMPROVES, THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS AS
WE GET INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THE BOUNDARY SINKS DOWN INTO THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE 2 INCH VICINITY
WHICH IS APPROACHING THE TOP END OF THE CLIMATOLOGY. NOTE THE
DAY3-5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS, SO WE WILL BE WATCHING THAT
SITUATION. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE USUAL CAVEATS FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE USUAL MTN VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT KAVL. A CUMULUS FIELD
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
A BRIEF BROKEN LOW CLOUD CEILING CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE CLOUD
BASES WILL BE 050 OR HIGHER. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND OUR THINKING HASN'T CHANGED WITH REGARD
TO THE NC TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO AT KAVL BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY FORMING ON THE
RIDGES, AND THE PROB30 OVER THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. THE
HRRR STILL DOESN'T DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE UPSTATE TERMINALS, SO
THEY ARE LEFT OUT AND WILL BE AMENDED IF NECESSARY. WIND SHOULD
STAY SW WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS OVER THE UPSTATE. FAIR WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NO INDICATION OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS RIGHT NOW AT KAVL, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE IF STORMS HAPPEN
THERE. EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR DAY ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: THE NC TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE
TSRA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM
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