183
FXUS62 KGSP 081039
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
OF NC, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PART
OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL BE REQUIRED IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
2. FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS A DRY AIR MASS TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. OUTDOOR
BURNING WILL BECOME DANGEROUS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY FUELS. A RED FLAG FIRE
ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GA FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT OF NC, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN
PART OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL BE REQUIRED IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
A TRANSIENT PARENT SFC HIGH MOVING ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION,
IN A CONFIGURATION THAT BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEDGE. IN THE
WAKE OF ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES EARLY TODAY,
TEMPS WILL STAY RELATIVELY COOL, ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS TONIGHT. ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR EAST OF THE MTNS, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ZONES AND CABARRUS COUNTY. FROST WILL BE MORE
PATCHY OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS, BUT THE MORE POPULATED AREAS
MIGHT HAVE THE GREATEST RISK. LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST PREVENTS US FROM ISSUING A FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT AN ADVISORY SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN
THESE AREAS. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AROUND CHARLOTTE WILL PROBABLY
KEEP FROST MORE PATCHY ACROSS MOST OF THE METRO AREA. THE MOUNTAINS
COULD ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER PART
OF THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER VALLEY. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BE TOO WARM EVEN WITH LOWS MORE THAN FIVE UNDER NORMAL.
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN
AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT CONTINUES
TO RIDGE BACK. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE BREAKS OFF A CHUNK OF THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL. PATCHY FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS THE REGION
BECAUSE THE LOW TEMPS MIGHT NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. OUTDOOR
BURNING WILL BECOME DANGEROUS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY FUELS. A RED FLAG FIRE ALERT
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GA FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY
DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, RESULTING IN RH VALUES INTO
THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TODAY, WIND WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
20-25 MPH RANGE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE FIRE DANGER. THOUGH
THE RH WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND MIGHT NOT MEET
THE FOUR HOUR AT 25 PERCENT AND BELOW CRITERIA, THE FUEL MOISTURE
SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 10 PCT AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS SHOULD
REACH 25 MPH. THE NWS OFFICE IN PEACHTREE CITY ISSUED ONE FOR ALL
OF NORTH GA SO WE WILL COMPLY WITH OUR NORTHEAST GA ZONES. THE SC
FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG FIRE ALERT VALID AT 6 AM
WEDNESDAY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW RH BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
RETURN FLOW WILL FINALLY START TO BRING IN SOME INCREASING DEWPTS
AND HIGHER MIN RH VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS STEADILY WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS HAS
FORCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UP AGAINST/NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT DAYBREAK, WHICH COULD FORM A TEMPORARY
MVFR CEILING FROM KHKY TO KGSP/KGMU THRU MID-MORNING. THE LOWEST
CLOUD SHOULD EITHER SCATTER OUT OR LIFT TO VFR BY 14Z, BY WHICH
TIME DEEPER MIXING SHOULD BRING OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS FROM THE N
DOWN TO THE SFC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
THAT POINT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WITH SOME OTHER HIGH-BASED STRATOCU FOR THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE DAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT HANDLING THIS PARTICULARLY
WELL. EXPECT THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
LCL THRU THE AFTERNOON, IN THE 040 TO 060 RANGE, SO THAT WILL BE
INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS. OTHER THAN THAT, A WIND FORECAST. BEHIND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT, WIND BECOMES OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM THE N
TO NE OUTSIDE THE MTNS FROM AROUND DAYBREAK TO THE EARLY PART OF
THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST, BUT GUSTS COULD LINGER UNTIL WIND STARTS
TO DECOUPLE IN THE EARLY EVENING CLOSER TO SUNSET. WIND WILL GO
LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR THRU THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD EVENTUALLY
BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM
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