576
FXUS62 KGSP 121743
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT,
NOW LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY, WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE
SLIGHTLY ON POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER ON MIN TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BEHIND A COLD FRONT, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
2. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER ON MONDAY.
3. MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BEHIND A COLD FRONT, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD, A MUCH
QUIETER AND MILD PERIOD SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DRIER
CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT,
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS CAA PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE DAILY HIGH
WAS ALREADY RECORDED AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE LINE, SO TEMPS DIP
INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIP TO NEAR FREEZING
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW FREEZING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH
SUNDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRIER AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOKS TO DECREASE RH VALUES INTO THE 30-40% RANGE. AN UPPER LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY, INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS GUSTS OF 15-25MPH, WELL BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH THE ELEVATED GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ALL IN ALL, QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER ON MONDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL ACTIVATE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS
PRECIP MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN IN-SITU CAD, BUT THE WEDGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD ON VERY LONG, AS A 50+ KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET SCOURS OUT ANY COLD POOL. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT WILL
BE STRONGLY FORCED AND BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 50-60 KT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE SPC DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, EXTENDING SW INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING, AS A SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONT
WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LARGELY EAST OF THE AREA. EITHER WAY,
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT OUT
OF THE SW, AND BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF THE NW. THESE WINDS WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY,
STAYING ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS MONDAY IS BELOW
AVERAGE DUE TO THE FROPA, BUT EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM MONDAY AFTN. MOISTURE WITH THE NWLY FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY BRIEF
IN THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, WITH POPS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY
MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS LOOK UNLIKELY,
EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER ABOVE 3500 FT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY AND
PERSIST THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY, AS REINFORCING SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO
ITS AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD AIR MASS TO SLIDE RIGHT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BRING TEMPS WILL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A RETURN OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWFA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS HAS TRENDED A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON AVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH NIGHTS. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS
OF 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED TUESDAY. WHILE THE GROWING
SEASON USUALLY DOES NOT BEGIN THIS EARLY, THE RECENT WARM WEATHER
IS LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME TENDER VEGETATION BLOOMING, WHICH MAY
BE VULNERABLE TO THIS COLD SNAP. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. BEHIND A COLD FRONT, N/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES. WINDS
PICKUP AGAIN AFTER 14Z OUT OF THE S/SW. GUSTS OF 15-20KTS PICKUP
AGAIN ACROSS MOST SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES REMAIN SKC WITH
SCT250 POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NO RAIN OR
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CP
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