937
FXUS62 KGSP 251744
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1244 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COOLER HIGHS ON THURSDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RAIN CHANCES TRENDING LOWER FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE
CHANCE OF FLOODING CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY THURSDAY
THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
THE CHANCE OF FLOODING CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING, BUT IT
LOOKS TO STALL WITH MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU, BASICALLY LEAVING A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA. SOME MECHANICAL LIFT INTO THE W AND
SW FACING RIDGES WILL LEAD TO CHANCE POPS BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE LEADS TO A BAND OF QPF SHOWING UP
IN MOST MODELS ACROSS TN AND NC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU WHICH
RESULTS IN A SWATH OF 50-80% POPS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL KEEPING PRECIP ALL LIQUID.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE
WAVE FORMING AND MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS KEEPS HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PW VALUES AND GOOD FORCING WILL LEAD TO STORM
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 0.5 TO 1.25
INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, THIS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL CATEGORY
WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF ANY FLOODING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
DOES DEVELOP, GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME THUNDER RUMBLES BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS
RETURN AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND THE
NAM SHOWING SOME IN SITU CAD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
HAVE BLENDED SOME OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE NBM WHICH STILL ENDS UP AROUND NORMAL. LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING CAMS
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, OPTED TO GO
LOWER THAN NBM POPS ON FRIDAY AND CAPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
(<25%). A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS ENDING UP AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S EACH AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO THE RETURN OF LOWER HUMIDITY. LREF
PROBABILITIES ONLY SHOW A 15% TO 30% CHANCE OF MINIMUM RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 35% SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A 25% TO 45% CHANCE OF MINIMUM RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 35% SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40. HOW
QUICKLY WE DRY OUT ON FRIDAY, AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
SINKS, WILL DETERMINE HOW LOW MINIMUM RH WILL BE ABLE TO FALL THIS
WEEKEND. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
VERY LOW AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUTSIDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COOLING TREND CAN
BE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE STALLED FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TO RETURN BY
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MVFR CIGS HAVE CREEPED INTO KAND AND COULD
REACH KGMU/KGSP THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT'S UNCERTAIN. VFR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY SW WIND, NW AT KAVL, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. ALTHOUGH, WINDS COULD TOGGLE BACK TO SW AT KAVL
FOR A PERIOD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR CIGS, AND POSSIBLY VSBY, HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE STEADY OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT THE SC SITES,
BUT CHANCE TOO LOW FOR THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY, BUT SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/RWH
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