143
FXUS62 KGSP 111814
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A COLD SNAP BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A VERY
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
2. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND LINGER THRU SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN BORDER MONDAY.
3. MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING
LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A VERY
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THIS MEAN TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CRASH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ROBUST WIND FIELDS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL FOSTER 50-60KTS OF DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 30-35KTS
OF 0-1KM SHEAR. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL PROMOTE A NARROW WARM SECTOR CHARACTERISTIC OF 150-250 J/KG OF
SURFACE-BASED CAPE. WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVELY BUOYANT, STRONG FORCING
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE LINE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LEAD PORTION OF THE LINE WILL PUSH INTO
THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING OUT OF EAST TENNESSEE, BUT LIKELY
WON'T MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST. A SECOND LINE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND LIFT INTO THE UPSTATE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
85. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE LINE, BUT IF ANY
LINEAR SEGMENTS CAN SURGE TO THE NORTHEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. THIS WOULD BE IN THE FROM OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN LINGER BEHIND THE LINE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO
THE LOW 50S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER THRU SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN BORDER
MONDAY.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING BACK DOWN TO A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE WEEKS. TEMPS GENERALLY 20 DEG COOLER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST. TEMPS REBOUND
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL, THEN WARM TO ABOUT 5-10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND BRINGS A
RETURN-FLOW REGIME.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING A WARM FRONT THRU THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AS SOME SBCAPE WORKS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EXIT TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY. SOME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A NON-ZERO SEVERE TSTM THREAT. QPF DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT
HEAVY. MODELS ARE MIXED ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN NWLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FT
ALONG THE TN BORDER, BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF MONDAY EVENING.
MONDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS, WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL, THEN HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND GENERALLY
FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
MONDAY AND SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SETTLE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL FALL TO 5
TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON
USUALLY DOESN'T START THIS EARLY, THE RECENT VERY WARM WEATHER
MAY BE RESULTING IN SOME TENDER VEGETATION BLOOMING, WHICH MAY BE
VULNERABLE TO THIS COLD SNAP. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LINE WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO VISIBILITY ALONG WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
ALL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
NOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED GUSTS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR RETURNS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GUSTY NNW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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