748
FXUS62 KGSP 192326
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WETTER AND COOLER LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AND THEN STALL
NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A COOLER AND WETTER FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AND THEN
STALL NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A COOLER AND WETTER
FORECAST.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CURRENTLY FEATURES UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
FARTHER UPSTREAM, BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A PLETHORA AS EMBEDDED WAVES AND
IMPULSES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
AND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF WEAK MOISTURE RETURN
CONTINUING INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT LEAST ONE MORE HOT DAY IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S COMMON. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO TENNESSEE, A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TO SET UP SHOP AND
PERSIST PERHAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
BY THIS TIME, DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO RESIDE FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND BOUTS OF FORCING COMBINED
WITH ASCENT ATOP THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A NOTICEABLY
WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR FLOODING THREAT IS
APPARENT AT THIS TIME, JUST A BENEFICIAL RAIN THAT WILL AT A VERY
MINIMUM HELP KEEP THE DROUGHT FROM GETTING WORSE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF THICK CIRRUS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN UPSTATE, BUT SHOULD THIN OUT BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CU FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH THICKEST CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY NEAR
THE TN BORDER. BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE CONVECTION
MAKES IT TO KAVL, SO WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR EARLY TOMORROW EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD-AIR DAMMING MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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