004
FXUS62 KGSP 140503
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.
UPDATED THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM, CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER PATTERN MAY RETURN
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM, CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER PATTERN MAY RETURN
NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE TODAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE, ESPECIALLY
AS A DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SATURDAY.
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW STARTS TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AND COULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE MAY END UP BEING ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE. EITHER WAY, COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE MEAGER AND WON'T CONTRIBUTE
MUCH IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS, IF AT ALL. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS EJECTS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BRING A WETTER PATTERN
BACK INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SHOULD THE FRONT STALL, BUT GUIDANCE
IS SPLIT AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS MAY HAPPEN AND HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THRU ALL THE TAF SITES BY AROUND
06Z, WHICH WILL TOGGLE WINDS NW. WINDS REMAIN NW TO N THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL BUT KAND AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, AND
LINGER THRU THE AFTN. GUSTY WINDS AT KAVL EXPECTED TO START BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND PEAKS GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
CLEAR SKIES AND NO FOG EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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