097
FXUS62 KGSP 110634
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE I-77
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXPECT WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER EACH DAY.
2. DRY AND HOT NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF IN
SIGHT. DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER EACH DAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS UPPER TROFING MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A WEAK, MOSTLY DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MINIMAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY, UP
TO ABOUT 500 J/KG, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WE COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER,
MAINLY ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
NEAR-CRITICAL RH LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA TODAY.
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HELP DECREASE
THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND HOT NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
RELIEF IN SIGHT. DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY STARTING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEAST RIDGING WILL KEEP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING ESSENTIALLY BLOCKS ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM COMING THIS FAR EAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR THE HEAT TO BUILD. THE
FIRST REALLY WARM DAY IS FORECAST TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 90 TO LOW 90S
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY AS DAILY
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ASSOCIATED IN THIS SETUP
WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT, SO ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REACHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD, DESPITE A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SCT VFR CLOUDS AND A BRIEF/WEAK, NLY WIND BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT.
THE SFC HIGH GETS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH IN THE FRONT'S WAKE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB
THRU THE MORNING AND FAVOR A SWLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE UPSTATE TERMINALS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA. THEY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT COULD
FAVOR A NLY DIRECTION AT TIMES. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VRB THRU THE MORNING AND PICK UP MARGINALLY FROM THE N THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950
KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950
KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907
KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907
KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JPT
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