899
FXUS62 KGSP 251840
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED IN THE CAD AREA WITH RAIN ALONG THE TN
BORDER. STORM TOTALS ARE NOW ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE EVENT.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FOR HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES,
AND THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HAVE NOW CANCELLED THE WARNING FOR HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES
AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THERE. MACON IS MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, SO
NO CHANGE THERE FOR NOW. PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE,
WITH SOME SLEET ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIP SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS. STORM TOTALS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE STORM.
2. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. STILL
LOWER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AN EXTREME COLD WATCH ALSO HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THAT TIME.
3. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS MAY RETURN TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.
4. SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL, IT COULD EASILY REINTRODUCE OR WORSEN TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE
TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAVE NOW CANCELLED THE WARNING FOR HAYWOOD AND MADISON
COUNTIES AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THERE. MACON IS MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, SO NO
CHANGE THERE FOR NOW. PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE, WITH
SOME SLEET ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF
HEAVIER PRECIP SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS. STORM TOTALS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO SHOW ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE STORM.
THE VERY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING
HAS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH WARMING ALONG THE TN BORDER BUT BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS FROM ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES AS MOISTURE AND
INSENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVATION OF THE BROAD BAROCLINIC
ZONE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE DEPTH OF THE SURFACE BASED COLD LAYER IS
SHRINKING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WARM NOSE NEAR 10 DEGREES C IS
KEEPING THE PRECIP FROM REFREEZING INTO SLEET. THEREFORE, EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE WHERE TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH AND RAIN WHERE THEY ARE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT SAID,
SOME SLEET MAY STILL MIX IN ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL FREEZING PRECIP. THE WINTRY ACCUMS
SHOULD BE ICE FROM FREEZING PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT.
A COLD FRONT/FRONTAL BAND SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE BAND ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO FALL MOSTLY AS FZRA WITHING THE CAD REGION,
AND WHILE SOME OF THIS WILL BE CONVERTED TO RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO
PURE ICE ACCRETION, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY A QUICK ADDITIONAL
0.15-0.3 INCH OF ICE. WHILE CONVECTION WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND WILL
BE ELEVATED, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS
IMPINGING UPON THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW COLD POOL, WHICH COULD
EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM OF FALLING TREES AND LIMBS. IN OTHER WORDS,
DAMAGE, POWER OUTAGES, AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE RATHER
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL END ABRUPTLY BY EARLY EVENING. ANY WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING WILL BE BRIEF, AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BAND. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY
FROM THE NW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AND MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES BORDERING TN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT. STILL LOWER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT, AND AN EXTREME COLD WATCH ALSO
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT TIME.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 40-60
MPH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST. WIND GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, EXCEPT FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET, BUT WITH ICE-DAMAGED TREES AND POWER LINES, AN
IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS COOL LATE TONIGHT
THRU LATE MONDAY MORNING, AND COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WIND CHILLS
DIP BELOW -5 F IN SOME SPOTS. BASED ON EXPECTED ONGOING IMPACTS
FROM TODAY'S ICE STORM, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND RABUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GA
FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM MONDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WINDS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NBM VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LOWER 10S AND
SINGLE DIGITS AFTER SUNSET MONDAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS APPEAR LIKELY TO FALL TO -12 TO -15 ON
AVERAGE IN MOST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT DURING THE EVENING,
AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS/GUSTS SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD MORNING, THE
COLDER TEMPS AT THAT TIME MAKE UP FOR THAT. -15 IS THE CRITERION
FOR EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND AS SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE WITHOUT POWER AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WE ISSUED AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH VALID 6 PM MON TO NOON TUE, FOR ALL OF AVERY COUNTY
AND HIGHER ELEVATION PORTIONS OF THE OTHER COUNTIES BORDERING TN,
EXCEPT GRAHAM, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ARE ONLY VERY SPARSELY POPULATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MAY RETURN TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.
SPRAWLING LOBE OF POLAR VORTEX REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NE CONUS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST BY FRIDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUND THIS FEATURE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SWINGS
PAST THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. DOWNSLOPING AND/OR WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WAVE ACTUALLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND WARMER WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING, BUT TEMPS TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER
AGAIN AS THE INCOMING SFC HIGH CENTERS CLOSER TO THE AREA. BOTH
MINS AND MAXES REMAIN ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND WED THRU SAT.
THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN NW FLOW LATE TUE THRU THU MORNING WITH A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER. THEREFORE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THAT AREA REALLY AT ANY PART OF
THAT PERIOD, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TO ROUND THE VORTEX WED NIGHT WHICH RESULTS IN BETTER
MODEL QPF RESPONSE. THAT COMES OUT AS A SLIGHT-CHANCE FOR SNOW
IN OUR FORECAST ALONG THE BORDER. WINDS/GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 10S TO SINGLE DIGITS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS AND THUS SOLIDLY IN
COLD WX ADVISORY CRITERIA AS OF NOW; COULD TREND EITHER WAY AND
OF COURSE TOO FAR OUT FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE STILL
COLDER TEMPS THU NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTER
WINDS SO NOT NECESSARILY MEETING OBJECTIVE COLD WX ADVISORY
CRITERIA. CONSIDERATION WILL BE GIVEN TO THE EXTENT OF POWER
OUTAGES IN MAKING ADVISORY OR EVEN EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING
DECISIONS AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT. DAYTIME TEMPS IN MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. COLD TEMPS WILL
EXACERBATE THREATS OF HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE TRAVELING OR STILL
WITHOUT POWER. MAKE SURE TO CHECK UP ON VULNERABLE LOVED ONES AND
NEIGHBORS, PETS, AND HAVE PLENTY OF BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING.
REMEMBER TO AVOID BURNING FUELS LIKE PROPANE OR KEROSENE INDOORS
AS THIS INCREASES FIRE RISK AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
KEY MESSAGE 4: SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL, IT COULD EASILY REINTRODUCE OR WORSEN TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO
THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR VORTEX WOBBLES INTO THE ATLANTIC
LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A WELL
DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WILL ENCIRCLE THE LOW AND SWING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THAT TIMEFRAME. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A
COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING UP NEAR THE SE US COAST VIA
THE SHORTWAVE, WITH VERTICAL PROFILES OVER OUR AREA REMAINING VERY
COLD DUE TO THE DEEP COLD AIR WHICH WILL HAVE SETTLED IN BEHIND
THE FRONTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE DEPICTED POSITION OF THE SFC
LOW COULD POSITION THE PRECIP SHIELD FOR US TO SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL
DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT. THERE APPEARS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SIGNAL
THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW AS IT PASSES
THE MOUNTAINS, AND/OR FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE CARRIED EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITHOUT A SURFACE LOW FORMING, THOUGH SNOW EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS IN THAT SCENARIO IS OFTEN OVERFORECAST. AS A NOD TO
BOTH POSSIBILITIES, WE END UP WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND OVER SOME OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL RISE ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AND IN THE DAYS PRIOR, LIGHT SNOW WOULD
HAVE A GREATER THAN USUAL CHANCE OF STICKING AND CAUSING A RETURN
OF SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN CLEARED FOLLOWING
THE EARLY WEEK EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ***AMD NOT SKED WILL BE CARRIED AT KHKY
UNTIL THE FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO ASOS OUTAGE.*** PRECIP NOW MAINLY
FZRA AND FZDZ AT THE TERMINALS, BUT SOME PL WILL BE SEEN AT KHKY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY AT KCLT. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR
WITH TEMPO LIFR. VSBY IS MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR. A HEAVIER BAND OF FZRA
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BRIEF VERY GUSTY WINDS, WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF AFTER, THOUGH FZDZ
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. NE WIND, SSE AT
KAVL, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS TURN WSW WITH AND BEHIND THE
HEAVIER BAND OF FZRA. KAVL SEES A TURN TO THE NW WITH GUSTS
DEVELOPING. THIS WIND WILL ALLOW VSBY TO IMPROVE AT KAVL BUT CIGS
REMAIN IFR UNTIL DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE...IFR VSBY AND LIFR CIGS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH LIFR VSBY AND VLIFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP HELPING
DISSIPATE THE FOG AND SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS. KAVL WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VERY GUSTY NNW WINDS.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1999 17 1940 54 1916 2 1986
KCLT 75 1890 24 1940 58 1890 6 1940
KGSP 73 1954 29 1940 57 1949 8 1940
RECORDS FOR 01-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1914 7 1897 52 1916 -2 1986
1897
KCLT 79 1944 20 1897 59 1916 5 1986
KGSP 77 1944 29 1986 55 1957 5 1986
RECORDS FOR 01-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 25 1977 52 1917 -1 1897
1897
KCLT 79 2002 29 2014 59 1957 8 1897
KGSP 78 2002 27 1897 57 1957 6 1897
1916
RECORDS FOR 01-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 11 1966 55 1950 -7 1966
1914
KCLT 78 2002 19 1966 59 1914 4 1966
KGSP 76 1975 20 1966 53 2002 -6 1966
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-049-
050-053-056-057-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062>065.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ033-048>052-059.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
101>109.
JCW/RWH
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