280  
FXUS62 KGSP 081011  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
611 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING. DRY CONDITIONS  
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND  
DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 608 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE CWFA  
AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION PROPAGATES EASTWARD WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.  
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENCROACHING COLD  
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH WITH  
THE ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS NOW. THE COLD  
FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH/TN  
VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE  
CWFA ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER BY DAYBREAK AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS  
SHOWS IT JUST ON THE TN SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE  
TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND COMPLETE  
A FULL FROPA LATER THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
OVER THE AREA AHEAD AND EVEN RIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT  
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CAMS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT  
THE POTENTIAL OF MUCH CONVECTION AS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF  
THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL WILL PRECLUDE ANY DEEP DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER,  
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-85 DURING PEAK HEATING,  
THE HREF DEVELOPS ~500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE  
BOUNDARY AND IN THIS CASE, CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE  
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH SOME FORM OF  
REDEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR  
ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AS WELL, WHICH BASICALLY PUTS  
OUR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK NEAR ZERO. GOOD COMPRESSIONAL  
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONLY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL  
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL  
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR-NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE  
THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STARTS EARLIER IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE CWFA TONIGHT AS A STOUT  
SURFACE HIGH (~1035MB) CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL  
NOSE IN STRONG NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL CAA, CREATING A WEDGE-LIKE  
SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE CHANGE IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SEND  
LOW-END GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND FRONT. CLOUDS WILL  
SCATTERED OUT AND LEAD TO CLEARER SKIES, BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER  
WON'T FULLY DECOUPLE THANKS TO THE INCOMING CAA, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS  
REMAIN AT OR A FEW TICKS ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1) COOL AND DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING  
 
2) BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS  
 
3) FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS  
 
UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT  
TERM. AT THE SFC, DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD  
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER  
OF THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY BUT THE  
SW PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS AROUND. BREEZY  
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH. TEMPS EACH AFTERNOON  
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS  
AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THUS, HIGHS WILL  
END UP ~3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO  
NOT ONLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK BUT THE COOLEST NIGHT OF  
THE FALL WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR WITH LOWS ENDING UP ~3-5 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE  
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FROST  
TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND IN SOME LOCATIONS WEST  
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER  
40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW  
DEGREES WARMER, ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FROST  
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT,  
BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY AND ISOLATED THANKS TO SLIGHTLY WARMER  
TEMPS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1) DRY WEATHER STICKS AROUND  
 
2) BREEZY WINDS LINGER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND  
 
3) WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT  
REGARDING THE BOTH THE UPPER PATTERN AND LOW-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH  
MOST OF THE LONG TERM, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS  
THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ON  
SUNDAY NEAR EASTERN NC. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LOW SINKS  
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE  
WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING THE STRONGER UPPER LOW  
WILL GRADUALLY ABSORB THE WEAKER UPPER LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN DIVERGES ON WHICH PATH THE UPPER LOW  
WILL TAKE PAST MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NE  
WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF  
AND CANADIAN HAVE THE UPPER LOW STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON  
TUESDAY. AT THE SFC, A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS  
THIS WEEKEND BUT ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING  
THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIKE THE  
UPPER LOW, THE GFS HAS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTING NE ON TUESDAY WHILE  
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE THE COASTAL LOW STALLING NEAR THE  
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE COASTAL LOW STALLING OR  
LIFTING NE, IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE GSP CWA THANKS TO ANOTHER AREA OF  
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS,  
THE NBM MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WHICH MATCHES  
GLOBAL GUIDANCE WELL AT THIS TIME. BREEZY WINDS LINGER EAST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM FROM 15-20 MPH.  
BREEZY WINDS MAY STICK AROUND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK  
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM  
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR MOST OF  
THE LONG TERM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS SOME TERMINALS  
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT IS ENCROACHING  
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE  
MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE SITES AND KCLT, WHICH IS REFLECT IN THE  
TEMPO. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR STEADY -SHRA, SO PLACED A  
PREVAILING VCSH MENTION INSTEAD WITH A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AND  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. THE TEMPO WAS PLACED FOR THE BEST TIMING  
FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND  
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE HAVE HIT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF I-85 HARD WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE DAYBREAK, SO PLACED THIS AT  
THE UPSTATE SITES IN THE TEMPO. OTHERWISE, THE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT  
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY, BUT KEPT A VCSH MENTION INTO THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS GUIDANCE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING ALONG  
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD,  
MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL  
GENERAL RUN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ONCE  
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. TIMED THIS UP IN THE TAF,  
BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO OCCUR EARLY- TO MID-AFTERNOON,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL, WHERE THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS. WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT LATER IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT  
BEHIND THE FRONT, GOING FROM NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY  
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELEVATED GUSTS FILTER IN ONCE THE  
COMPONENT TOGGLES TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT, SO PLACED A  
GUST MENTION AT ALL THE TAF SITES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
THE EVENING, AND EVEN LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND PERSIST FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHY MORNING FOG/LOW  
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EACH DAY, OTHERWISE  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AR  
NEAR TERM...CAC  
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...CAC  
 
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