658
FXUS62 KGSP 180003
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
703 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1:25 PM EST WEDNESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THRU TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO-
NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND WITH VALUES
ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE
GEORGIA TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK, IN-SITU WEDGING TRIES TO BRIEFLY
SET UP OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, BROAD UPPER TROFING WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PVA AND ISEN-
TROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INI-
TIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS CONCENTRATED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC
FORCING INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT ITSELF MOVING THRU OUR FCST AREA EARLY FRI-
DAY MORNING WITH PROFILES RAPIDLY DRYING IN ITS WAKE. THUS, PRECIP
CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER
THE NC/TN BORDER REGION AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MTNS
EARLY FRIDAY, HOWEVER ANY SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A DUSTING LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, SLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NC MTNS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IF CURRENT FCST TRENDS
CONTINUE, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS
AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1051 AM WEDNESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
BY FRIDAY MORNING, A POTENT TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME WITH A FEW GUSTS POTENTIALLY TOUCHING RIGHT AT
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE LIMITED DURATION AND COVERAGE, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS/RIDGES, WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RELAX
FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB WINDS RELENT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES INTO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BY SATURDAY AS A BROAD/FLAT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY PERHAPS FOSTERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. A STRAY SHOWER MAY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1116 AM WEDNESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: MAINLY DRY FORECAST CONTINUES LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS TO OUR NORTH
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING
INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
DROPS TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW, WHICH MAY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
THE BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS, GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A PREDOMINATELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME, BROAD WESTERLIES WILL ENVELOPE MOST OF THE COUNTRY
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK.
WHILE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY WET FORECAST BY ANY
MEANS, OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH OVERNIGHT COOLING COULD YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF HIGH ELEVATION
FREEZING RAIN, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW
HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD FOR LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR OVERNIGHT UNDER BKN CIRRUS, WITH LIGHT
SW WINDS OF A FEW KT, WHEN NOT CALM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AMPLIFY ABOVE THE PBL PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF A MOIST INVERSION
AND LOW VFR CLOUDS NEAR DAYBREAK, SPREADING NORTHWARD AND LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING SUCH THAT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
BY 14-15Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LLWS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK THU, BUT DOESN'T
LOOK WORTHY OF A MENTION IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION, LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ESE AT KCLT,
BUT SOME FLIRST WITH NE ARE POSSIBLE; WITH LIGHT SPEEDS AND LIMITED
CONFIDENCE, JUST WENT VRB03KT IN THE MORNING. -SHRA AND/OR -DZ MAY
DEVELOP WITH THE MVFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING, BUT MORE LIKELY
16-19Z. DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP WILL LEAD TO COLD-AIR DAMMING AND
FORMATION OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THAT TIMEFRAME WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN EARLY FRIDAY, HENCE LASTING THROUGH THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LLWS SIGNAL IS STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION AT KCLT AFTER 17Z AND AT KAVL AFTER 21Z.
OUTLOOK: PRECIP AND SEVERE CIG RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. BRIEF
WINTRY PRECIP CHANGEOVER POSSIBLE IN HIGH MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS BUT
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT KAVL. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND
PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/JPT
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JCW
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