867
FXUS62 KGSP 051754
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK
FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SAT: STILL EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET SATURDAY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NE'LY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DEVELOPING TS CHANTAL
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. VERTICAL PROFILES FEATURE LITTLE MOISTURE
ABOVE THE PBL AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT TO SOME DEGREE THIS
AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF
DIURNAL CONVECTION, AND THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MORNING ACARS
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING INVERSION OVER CLT EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
HRRR SHOWED. THUS POPS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW SLIGHT-CHANCE IN
ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE 15Z NHC ADVISORY MAINTAINED A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS DEPICTED, AND
THE TRACK INLAND IS VERY SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. OUR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM'S CIRCULATION BUT
DIRECT IMPACTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL. MOST LIKELY WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW TROPICAL STORM CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY THE WEE HOURS
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY; THERE WOULD APPEAR POTENTIAL
FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP POTENTIAL HAS TICKED SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST OF I-77
OWING TO THE MORE INLAND TRACK, INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN
BANDS WILL REACH THAT AREA, STILL HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC MARGINAL
RISK ERO. THAT SAID, THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL LOOKS TO FALL TO OUR
EAST. THE SPC DAY 2 RISK AREA DID ADD A 2% TORNADO CONTOUR ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK, ALSO STILL TO OUR EAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTN NEAR I-77 BUT DEEPLY SATURATED
TROPICAL PROFILES KEEP CAPE RELATIVELY LOW. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA FROM EARLY MORNING THRU MOST OF THE DAY,
SO FCST MAX TEMPS ARE HELD INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THERE. IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT
PERHAPS TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN
VALLEYS OWING TO DOWNSLOPE NE FLOW OFF THE RIDGES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY: THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
FILLING CHANTAL AND WEAKENING SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOSEN
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THE ONSET OF SW FLOW, ALBEIT WEAK AT
FIRST, THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER ON MONDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS ON
MONDAY, FEATURING PIEDMONT LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG WITH A RETURN
TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES REGIONWIDE. UPPER HEIGHTS
ATOP THE SE CONUS CREEP UPWARD ON TUESDAY, AND WITHIN THE
CONTINUED WAA FLOW, PIEDMONT MAXIMUMS WILL BOOST INTO THE MIDDLE
90S WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES POTENITALLY IN THE LOWER 100S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY: IN RESPONSE TO OHIO/MISS VALLEY ENERGY
RIPPLING EASTWARD, UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE REGION WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER ONE MORE
DAY FEATURING MIDDLE 90S AGAIN IN THE PIEDMONT. FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO THE JULY CLIMO AS
FLATTER FLOW/SUBTLE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BECOME NUMEROUS EACH
DAY GIVEN SEASONABLY HIGH, IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
WITHIN A LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE WSW FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT: TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SC
TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THRU
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT LIKELY IN THE MORNING. LOW VFR
CIGS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR LIKELY AFTER 13Z, BUT
POSSIBLY ARRIVING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM'S OUTER BANDS. HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES, HENCE PROB30, ALTHOUGH
GREATEST GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE: VFR THRU TONIGHT. LOW VFR CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHRA/TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND PRIMARILY NE THRU THE PERIOD, EXCEPTING PERIODS OF SE OR VRB
THIS AFTN AT KAVL. HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND
T.S. CHANTAL TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY, WITH LOW
VFR STRATOCU BY AROUND DAYBREAK. RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNLIKELY TO
MENTION THIS TAF SET. GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY MORNING. SCT SHRA COULD
BEGIN TO REACH KGSP/KGMU/KHKY BY 18Z, ALTHOUGH THE PEAK CHANCE IS
AFTER THAT TIME AND PRECIP MENTION IS NOT YET WARRANTED.
OUTLOOK: CHANTAL WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NC, WITH WINDS AT
KCLT/KHKY DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING BUT WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THRU MON MORNING. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS, AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY IN VALLEYS OR WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page