858
FXUS62 KGSP 171738
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A MENTION FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NC MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC/TN BORDER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3,500 FEET ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3 PM. SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
AND SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE.
2. THE COLDER AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND. FREEZING
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EACH NIGHT, IMPACTING SENSITIVE
VEGETATION THAT HAS ALREADY STARTED BLOOMING FROM THE RECENT
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
3. WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STILL COULD BRING
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3,500 FEET ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 3 PM. SNOW WILL CREATE
SLIPPERY AND SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE EVENING
COMMUTE.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOW LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE ABOVE
3,500 FEET. ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE COLDER AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND.
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EACH NIGHT, IMPACTING
SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS ALREADY STARTED BLOOMING FROM THE
RECENT ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS COLDER THICKNESSES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
IN CONTROL AS IT BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN-THIRD OF THE
CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO
THE REGION WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS WAVE
COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS,
MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND WITH THE DRY
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE, IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE, COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK STARTING THURSDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STILL COULD BRING
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
WARMING LLVL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY, BOOSTING LOWER
ELEVATION MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S. NW NC LOOKS TO
BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A PERIOD OF WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING
AS A SHEARING CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATES ACRS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO LIMIT
ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT'S PASSAGE TO LOCALES NORTH OF THE
REGION. FURTHER LLVL WARMING AND RISING OF UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
BE SEEN ON FRIDAY WITH PIEDMONT MAXIMUMS FCST TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S.
UPPER HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SUPPORTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND, THE EFFECTS OF WHICH WILL MAINLY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALES NORTH OF THE CWFA WITH THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPING PCPN CHANCES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THIS FAR SOUTH.
THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR MONDAY
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WHICH USHERS IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-END GUSTS WILL LINGERING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TOGGLING TO A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN THE DIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, AND FINALLY SETTLING AT A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS. KAVL WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
BEFORE SWITCHING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD, BUT CIGS REMAIN AT VFR.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ033-048>052-058.
SC...NONE.
CAC/CSH
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