579
FXUS62 KGSP 260612
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS GUSTS INCREASED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FOR SUNDAY
BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
2. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
FOR SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES, SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED
ACROSS THE CWA, WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF I-85 AND
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS CENTERED EAST OF I-26. MOST OF THE
CWA IS STILL BENEATH A BLANKET OF THICK CLOUD COVER...THOUGH SOME
CLEARING IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN NC MOUNTAINS.
CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY SCOUR OUT OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST
GUIDANCE DEPICTING ONLY SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK, AS WELL AS LINGERING STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
PATCHY FOG, DENSE IN SOME PLACES, HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED,
AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE
CLEARING DOES OCCUR. DON'T CURRENTLY EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
NEED A DENSE FOG PRODUCT, BUT...WILL NONETHELESS NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR OBS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA TODAY, ALLOWING SKIES
TO SLOWLY CLEAR ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS
WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE FRONT, POSTFRONTAL CAA APPEARS WEAK TO
THE POINT OF BEING ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE, AND SO FOR MOST LOCATIONS
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SCARCELY A CATEGORY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT EAST OF US-221,
WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER CAA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE HIGHS A
CATEGORY OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE, DESPITE AMPLE DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, THERE WOULD LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH SUBSIDENCE
FOR DECENT DEWPOINT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE WETTING RAIN
RECEIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD FURTHER TEMPER ANY FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DRY AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. THEN A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
TUESDAY. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE SBCAPE IS MINIMAL, THERE IS MUCAPE ALONG WITH
SOME BULK SHEAR. IT'S TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER ANY OF THIS COULD BE
SEVERE, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
FORMS ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT HELPS PUSH
THE FRONT IN FROM THE WEST. THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT REMAINS LOW
WITH QPF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO BRING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY. THEN, THE WAVE TRAIN PICKS BACK WITH WITH SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS INCREASING, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: NNW WIND CONTINUES AT MOST TERMINALS,
WITH THE COLD FRONT NEARLY TO OUR SOUTH, AND SHRA HAVING MOSTLY
CONCLUDED ACROSS THE AREA. A ROUND OF WEAK UPGLIDE IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE UPSTATE BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE, BUT ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY PUSHING TOWARD THE EASTERN TIER OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SHOWERS AREN'T EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT, BUT BOTH THE HI-RES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE
INCREASINGLY KEYING ON POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY IFR
(EVEN ISOLATED LIFR) FOG IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR UP OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY THINK DENSER FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...WHILE LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
BY MORNING, EXPECT PRESENTLY NNW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NE,
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SKIES STEADILY CLEAR.
VFR IS EXPECTED FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/RWH
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