847
FXUS62 KGSP 150607
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY, A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER WARM-UP
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1137 PM TUESDAY: ANOTHER BENIGN "COPY AND PASTE" FORECAST AS
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. A TALL AND AMPLIFIED
RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A POTENT UPSTREAM
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MONOTONOUS FORECAST WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SENDS A
DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. OTHERWISE, A FEW INSTANCES OF MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN MOST FAVORED AND SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD, TO THE APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
WILL SUPPORT 1020+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL PUSH AN EFFECTIVE DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SPELL A WEEK-ENDING COOLING TREND, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO COOL TO
NEAR-NORMAL ON THURSDAY, AND EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE COMFORTABLY
DRY, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND AFTERNOON RH
DIPPING INTO THE 30-35% RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
TURN INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW/INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE CWA, AS A CONSENSUS
OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE UPPER JET WILL PASS
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR ALONG A FAIRLY NARROW AXIS
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GULF
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS SUCH, IT WILL
BE A BIT OF A STRUGGLE TO ADVECT 60S+ DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...LIMITING THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY,
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE FURTHER DISRUPTED DUE TO POTENTIAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE UPSTREAM AREA OF THE GULF COAST. ALL
THINGS CONSIDERED, ANY CONVECTIVE BAND ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO BE MAINTAINED,
ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. LIKELY POPS
WILL THEREFORE BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
CHANCES TAPERING TO 30-40% OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A PERIOD
OF ABOVE-NORMAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT,
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT, BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR-NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY FOCUS BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KAVL. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT MOSTLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU THE
WEEK, EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TW
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