964  
FXUS62 KGSP 280836  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
336 AM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR  
WEATHER FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST/D IN AREAS WHERE LLVL  
MIXING HAS CONTINUED. EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT,  
WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS PERSISTING UNDERNEATH A LOW CLOUD DECK  
ACROSS THE WRN ZONES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT  
ACROSS THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS AS A LLVL JET TRANSLATES THE AREA  
THRU MID DAY.  
 
A NICE DAY ON TAP AS AN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE FA AND  
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN INCOMING H5 RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW  
AN AREA OF HIPRES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SRN APPS AND KEEP THINGS DRY  
AND RELATIVELY WARM. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY NOON AS THE MEAN FLOW  
WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER REDUCES TO ARND 6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. FEW TO  
SCATTERED FAIR-WX CU WILL FORM ALONG WITH SOME PASSING CI, BUT  
OVERALL INSOL WILL BE HIGH WITH A WEAK MEASURE OF DOWNSLOPING EAST  
OF THE MTNS. SO, EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NON/MTNS  
AND M50S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS. CLEAR CONDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW  
TEMPS TO FALL RIGHT ARND NORMAL WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG  
DEVELOPMENT ARND DAYBREAK. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AS SFC TDD/S MAY  
BE TOO HIGH AND THE SFC-LAYER REMAINS WEAKLY MIXED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL  
PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH  
PROGRESSES FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE TUE TO THE NORTHEAST  
CONUS BY LATE WED. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTHEAST OF A STRENGTHENING  
CYCLONE WILL ESTABLISH A BROAD/MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT REGIME AHEAD  
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY LATE TUE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WED MORNING.  
FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. SHEAR  
PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE  
WEAK, AND SOMEWHAT OUT OF PHASE WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING.  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS  
TIME. PRECIP WILL OTHERWISE CLEAR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED  
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NW/COLD ADVECTION FLOW FINALLY PAVING WAY FOR  
A RETURN TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WED NIGHT AND HEADING INTO  
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY: THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH DRY AND  
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE  
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST, AND  
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN  
CONUS HEIGHT FALLS. ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD  
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE  
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY OSCILLATE TO  
AND FRO ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT MAJOR  
STORM SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A  
MILDLY UNSETTLED FORECAST FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS  
FORECAST CYCLE, WITH GENERALLY TOKEN/SMALL POPS ADVERTISED  
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND. RELATIVELY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NC MTN  
VALLEYS AND AT KAND WHILE DISSIPATING THRU DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE  
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KAVL, YET CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO  
ADD TEMPO TO TAF. GUSTY CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN CURRENTLY WITH  
OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUSTS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL AND  
KAND IN BETTER LLVL MIXING. DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD, WINDS WILL  
BECOME ALIGNED W/LY TO SW/LY OUTSIDE THE MTNS AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS  
AND WINDS AT KAVL WILL SETUP NW/LY WITH LOW-END GUSTS RETURNING BY  
MID-DAY.  
 
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED  
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,  
BRINGING RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS  
FOR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JDL  
NEAR TERM...SBK  
SHORT TERM...JDL  
LONG TERM...JDL  
AVIATION...SBK  
 
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