484
FXUS62 KGSP 271852
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY,
AND PUSH SOUTH INTO THE UPSTATE ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN WESTERN NC TODAY,
AND THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOW-
END RISK OF ISOLATED FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
2. A FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING MAINLY DIURNAL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY WORK INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY, AND PUSH SOUTH INTO THE UPSTATE ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN WESTERN NC TODAY,
AND THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOW-
END RISK OF ISOLATED FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL WORK
TO FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW ATOP THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THRU
THURSDAY. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND HELP REDUCE THE EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT. WITH
THAT SAID, PWATS ARE STILL 1.5-1.75" AND DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE/HEAVY RAIN RATES. STEERING FLOW
SHOULD TAKE CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT, WHERE MLCAPE IS AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 30-35 KT. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A
NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT, WHERE THE
CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS PUSHING OFF
THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND TRACKING EAST THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE SPC'S MARGINAL RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE LOWEST IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SC PIEDMONT
DUE TO LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY
WANE LATE EVENING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TN BORDER
OVERNIGHT, WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
ON THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FRONT, PUSHING IN DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH AND SHOWING A NWLY DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. UP TO 2000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR
TWO TO BECOME SEVERE. BUT OVERALL, THE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING,
BUT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN. OTHERWISE,
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING MAINLY
DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES REINFORCING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST, EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS AN UPPER RIDGE GETS PINCHED
OFF OVER THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HELP
ACTIVATE A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY, BRINGING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE CWFA FRIDAY EVENING. A CAD-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE,
WITH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON HOW MUCH POPS WILL REALLY BE ABLE TO EXPAND NE OVERNIGHT. A
LACK OF BETTER FORCING SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW. BUT A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED
INTO THE SW THIRD OF THE CWFA. THE FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY THAT
LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE THAT ROTATES THRU THE MEAN EAST COAST TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES THRU THE
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING
TROUGH AND A GOOD PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS MAY FINALLY GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL MOST OF THE REGION HAS BEEN SEEING. THE LATEST NBM HAS
A GRADUAL DECREASING POP TREND MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL
ALSO TREND DOWN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, WITH DEWPTS POSSIBLY INTO
THE 40S AND 50S, MAKING IT FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY JUNE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN, WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGHEST FOR STORMS TO TRACK THRU THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING, SO WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR KHKY. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY STAY NORTH OF KCLT, SO VCSH AND A PROB30 FOR SOME
TS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR
THE UPSTATE SITES, WITH ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO WARRANT SOME PROB30
FOR TSRA LATE AFTN TO EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE LATE
EVENING, LEAVING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT, MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AROUND,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING, TOGGLING WINDS OUT OF THE N/NW AND REMAINING
LIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL GET
BY PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTN. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A PROB30 AT
KCLT AFTER 18Z, BUT THIS MAY GET TRIMMED BACK IF THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS HOLD.
OUTLOOK: THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY. VSBY
AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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