506
FXUS62 KGSP 151712
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1212 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TAPERS OFF THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, AS DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
2. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES CREEP BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TAPERS OFF THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, AS DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY, THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR, AS FORECASTED. LOCATIONS IN THIS CORRIDOR ARE SHOWING
MEASURED AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 INCH SO FAR WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
CURRENT QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS RECEIVING
ANOTHER 0.25-0.5 INCH BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO ANOTHER INCH IN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR 0.75-1.5 INCH, WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE HAS THE
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW, DRIER AIR
USHERS INTO THE AREA AND QUICKLY CLEARS OUT ANY REMNANT
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
NOT ANTICIPATING HYDRO ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS
DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES TODAY STRUGGLE TO
WARM AS THE IN-SITU WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE, KEEPING VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT A QUICK REBOUND
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS IN THE 60S TO START
THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND.
THE TIMING OF THE INFLUX OF DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING BOOSTING MAXIMUMS TO 8-10 DEG F
ABOVE THE MID-FEBRUARY CLIMO. UPPER HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS WILL
RISE ON TUESDAY, WITH THE CWFA REMAINING UNDER FLAT RIDGING ALOFT
THOUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARMING EXPECTED,
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TOKEN SMALL SHOWER CHANCES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
THURSDAY AS DESPITE BEING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW, WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY DIP JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POP. SHOWER CHANCES TICK UPWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HELPS TO PUSH BOUNDARY INTO AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE CWFA, USHERING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ONGOING RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MVFR/IFR FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RA IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS/VSBY
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. 1SM OF
VSBY IS POSSIBLE 18-21Z AT KCLT/KGSP/KHKY SO A TEMPO IS IN PLACE.
WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF THE NE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR SITES EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH KAVL BECOMING NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND COULD BRING LOW-END GUSTS OF 15KTS AT KCLT
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. KCLT IS
ALSO EXPECTED HAVE MVFR CIGS LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY, BUT SHOULD
BECOME VFR NEAR THE 09Z-12Z TIME RANGE. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AT ALL TERMINALS AND PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/CSH
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