067
FXUS62 KGSP 122355
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
2. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE TN BORDER, ESPECIALLY ABOVE
3500 FT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS.
3. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 3500 FT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY,
KEEPING RAINFALL CHANCES SUPPRESSED. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT, THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN SW. WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS, MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING FASTER THAN THE MOISTURE, TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD AGAIN
SEE LOW HUMIDITY, AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA,
WHERE MINIMUM VALUES IN THE 25-30% RANGE ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING, BUT MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP UP ABOVE NORMAL (INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S) FOR TUESDAY
KEY MESSAGE 2: ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE TN BORDER,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3500 FT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
AND EACH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WED-THU. THIS IS A LITTLE NORTH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. A QUICK SLUG OF MOISTURE AND DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RESULTANT PRECIP FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
MAY FALL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WAVE PASSES, BUT IT LOOKS
TOO WARM FOR SNOW EXCEPT ABOVE ABOUT 3500 FT. THE THE FLOW WILL
TURN OUT OF THE NW, WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS RAMPING UP OVERNIGHT THRU
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OVERALL, THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THRU THE EVENT, AND THUS,
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. WITH THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS STILL
PRETTY HIGH THAT ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TN BORDER, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGH
PEAKS. BUT WARNING CRITERIA OF >4" OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST PEAKS IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST. WE'LL SEE IF THIS
IS JUST A WAFFLING OF THE GUIDANCE, OR A PERSISTENT TREND.
THE BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF TO MAINLY SOME FLURRIES
THURSDAY AFTN. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS
BREAKING CONTAINMENT THURSDAY WITH SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
POSSIBLE IN THE NC PIEDMONT. BUT WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH AND OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
SNOW CHANCES HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN
NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ONLY SLIGHT WARMING EAST,
RESULTING IN HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY, AND BREEZY EVERYWHERE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BUT WITH THE LOW NOW LIKELY A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH, GUSTS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
EXCEPT ABOVE AROUND 5000 FT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND NW FLOW UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
END. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
THRU FRIDAY MORNING IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT. A COLD ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE COLD ELSEWHERE, WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND TEENS
IN THE PIEDMONT. FROM THERE, ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND REINFORCE WELL-BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE, BUT SHOW THAT IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED
AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST, AND STILL DISAGREE ON TIMING. A QUICK
SHOT OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
MAY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WHENEVER THAT WAVE PASSES,
THOUGH NEITHER ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
VFR/GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST SITES BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SW AGAIN AT 5-10 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM AND
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CP/JDL
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