996
FXUS62 KGSP 180630
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY, MOSTLY DRY, AND HOT AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BENEFICIAL
RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) RELIEF FROM
THE DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STICK AROUND.
2. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUING. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT,
SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
3. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK, EXACERBATING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BREEZY, MOSTLY DRY, AND HOT AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BENEFICIAL
RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STICK AROUND.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST AND KEEPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AROUND. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST
ALLOWING FLOW TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. INCREASING SW'LY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HOTTER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. HOWEVER,
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STILL APPEAR TO FALL NEAR/BELOW 30%
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH STATE-WIDE BURN BANS IN EFFECT
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, NO FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY FROM 12 PM TO 8
PM. ALTHOUGH MIN RHS MAY NOT DROP TO 30% OR LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA, BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING
DROUGHT WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP TO SPREAD QUICKLY. HIGHS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
FLIRTING WITH DAILY RECORDS AT KGSP AND KCLT. KGSP STILL APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BREAKING THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AS THE NBM
SHOWS AN 80% CHANCE OF MAXT>89 DEGREES. KCLT STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A
LOWER CHANCE TO BREAK THE DAILY RECORD AS THE NBM ONLY SHOWS A 30%
CHANCE OF MAXT>93. LUCKILY BREEZY WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGING GETS NUDGED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GSP CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE CAMS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES OFF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS,
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE RAIN HOLD
TOGETHER REMAINS LOW. EVEN IF ACTIVITY MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER WELL
ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, QPF
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO MAX OUT AT A A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC/TN BORDER COULD SEE
UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO
VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) DROUGHT RELIEF.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS FLIP
NW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
(<45 MPH) BUT SOME AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT COULD SEE
GUSTS BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (>45 MPH) SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE NBM HAS A 20% CHANCE OR
LESS OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY,
ALLOWING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
RETURN AREA-WIDE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 25%
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS, ONGOING DROUGHT, AND THE LACK OF A DECENT
WETTING RAIN WILL ALLOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO RETURN AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUING. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT, SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
THE AXIS OF AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT. AS AN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WEAKLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE EAST INTO MID-WEEK, SUPPORTING DRY LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN MIN TEMPS A SOLID 5+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO BOTH NIGHTS. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FROST IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
OTHERWISE, WHILE THE COOLER WEATHER WILL MARGINALLY IMPROVE THE
FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT, CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH OF LESS THAN 25% IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. WHILE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS MONDAY, GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH 15-20 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
WILL THEREFORE PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH
INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK,
EXACERBATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
A BROAD AREA OF DRY LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, AS
A RATHER DEEP UPPER RIDGE STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES
FROM THE WEST. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHEN MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 5+ DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO...FURTHER WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN MINIMAL UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY, SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
VERY LOW...IF NOT CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH IS FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A NON-FACTOR, BUT
THE HOT AND DRY ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE STEADILY DETERIORATING
FUELS SITUATION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED/UNUSUALLY HIGH
FIRE DANGER (FOR MID-SPRING) DESPITE THE RAPID GREEN-UP THAT IS
UNDERWAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY TAF FORECAST
THIS CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING WHILE PICKING
UP OUT OF THE SW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS MOST TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL SEE WINDS FLIP NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOW-END GUSTS FROM
16-19 KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE PASSING OVERHEAD, THICKENING FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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