311
FXUS62 KGSP 080507
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
107 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER FOR SATURDAY, AND 10-20% HIGHER
FOR MONDAY, BUT QPF IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOW.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BRIEF
DRYING EXPECTED TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A QUICK SHOT
OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
BRIEF DRYING EXPECTED TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BASICALLY THRU THE PERIOD, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
RIDING THRU THE TROUGH, PROVIDING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA.
COOL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO OUR EAST AND SUPPORT SOME MOISTURE RETURN OUT OF THE SW
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST NBM HAS BACKED OFF POPS SATURDAY, AS
FLOW VEERS TO NEARLY DUE WESTERLY AND KEEPS THE BETTER MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. FROM THERE, THE NBM POPS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT IN FROM THE NW. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA STILL LOOKS TO BE
EARLY MONDAY, WHICH MAY KEEP THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST BY
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. QPF ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN MUTED BY POSSIBLE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND A FAIRLY FAST FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. THE 12Z/07 LREF PROB OF >0.25" OF RAIN IS GENERALLY
AROUND 30% OR LESS FOR EACH SYSTEM, INCLUDING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT LOOKS TO SWING THRU WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD, EXCEPT WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PIEDMONT, INCLUDING KCLT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT SAW RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE ALREADY SEE VISIBILITIES DROP FROM
GASTONIA TO SALISBURY. THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, AS NOTED UPSTREAM AT
KHKY AND KMRN WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE MUCH LARGER. PATCHY FOG
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KCLT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENT AN AMENDMENT IS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY WITH RETURN OF
MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. DRY AND VFR TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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