072
FXUS62 KGSP 011829
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9
AM MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AS VERY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN
HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE GSP FORECAST
AREA AS WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LINGERING SNOWPACK COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO BLACK ICE AS WELL AS VERY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. BLACK ICE WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
2. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LINGERING SNOWPACK COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO BLACK ICE AS WELL AS VERY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. BLACK ICE WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
KEEPING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
RISING ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING TODAY, PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP MELT
SOME OF THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SUN SETS, ANY MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND WILL QUICKLY REFREEZE ONTO ROADS, PARKING LOTS, SIDEWALKS,
DRIVEWAYS, BRIDGES, AND OVERPASSES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IF TRAVELING, BE
PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
WALKING ON SIDEWALKS, DRIVEWAYS, AND IN PARKING LOTS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK MONDAY. LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. COLD TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH LINGERING WIND GUSTS WILL ALLOW VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
OF 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
THUS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL LINGER EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 DEGREES, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY. WEAR
APPROPRIATE CLOTHING, A HAT, AND GLOVES. MAKE FREQUENT CHECKS ON
OLDER FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND NEIGHBORS. ENSURE PORTABLE HEATERS ARE
USED CORRECTLY. DO NOT USE GENERATORS OR GRILLS INSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK.
FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE A PIECE OF PACIFIC
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF A TALL WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS
WILL CARVE OUT A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A BROAD ZONE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES
INTO THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE DROPPING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE WITH A BROAD
ZONE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENCROACHES ON THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE POSITIVE TROUGH ORIENTATION AND LACK OF
STRONGER FORCING AND A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WILL PROVE HOSTILE
TO MAINTENANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED
WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN FEWER ENSEMBLES MEMBERS
COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE MAJORITY
OF WHICH REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE GEPS. THUS, WILL CONFINE ANY
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE HAVE HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW
TO TRY AND DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY EXTEND UP I-26 FROM
THE COAST. GUIDANCE THAT FAVORS THIS SOLUTION ATTEMPTS TO BLOSSOM
ANOTHER BOUT OF ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION INTO COLD AIR OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO, SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN AND THEN DRYING. TEMPERATURES
MAKE A RUN AT RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS (25-33 KTS) WILL LINGER AT KAVL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW-END,
INTERMITTENT WIND GUSTS (15-20 KTS) CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NW AT KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN W/NW THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
GRADUALLY TURNING SW MONDAY. UPPER CIRRUS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BRIEF CLEARING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND
OF CIRRUS MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS BACK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-
082-501>510.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR SCZ008-009-011>014-019-103-106>109.
AR/TW
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