659
FXUS62 KGSP 241022
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LINGERING SHOWERS TAPER OFF TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND CUTS
OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LINGERING SHOWERS TAPER OFF TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AND CUTS OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS DRIER
AIR IS USHERED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THE DRIER AIR,
LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TO START THE DAY AND BEGIN FIZZLING
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTH HELPS TO AMPLIFY AND SWING IN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. AS THE DRY AIR COMES IN, IT COULD INCREASE FOG
CHANCES FOR A PERIOD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE AMPLE AMOUNT OF MUCH DRIER AIR, THIS SHOULD SHUNT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
NEXT CHANCE BEING OUT ON DAY 7, AS IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
PINPOINT ANYTHING, BUT FOR NOW, ENJOY THE DRIER AIR.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE CAD IN PLACE KEEPS DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO
THE COOL RANGE, MOSTLY 60S WITH LOW 70S IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AS THE
CAD ERODES, TEMPS CREEP BACK UP, BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE WHAT FALL
SHOULD BE. DRIER AIR MOVING IN HELPS TO DROP THOSE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NC PIEDMONT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STEADILY INCREASE, RAISING
OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: IFR CONTINUES WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT MVFR.
IMPROVEMENT COMES SLOWLY THROUGH 16Z-18Z. KAVL COULD HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 2SM VSBY, SO TEMPO FROM 12Z-14Z. DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
SHOULD BRING KCLT BACK TO VFR BY 22Z-00Z. OTHER SITES TO FOLLOW.
-RA EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
WINDS REMAIN NE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GUSTS OF 15-25KTS PICK UP
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK: VFR SHOULD RETURN EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS COULD STILL
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP
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