261
FXUS62 KGSP 191024
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NBM NOW SHOWING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TO END THE WORK-WEEK. MOSTLY DRY
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
2. VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND COOLER TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TO END THE WORK-WEEK. MOSTLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING PINCHED OFF TO THE
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SINKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NBM NOW HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL END UP NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS SHOULD END UP NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN AREA-WIDE FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES RETURN STARTING
TONIGHT, WITH MUCH WARMER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AGAIN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND COOLER TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY, AROUND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW, THE MODEL
BLEND KEEPS THE AREA DRY, WHICH IS GOOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE MODELS NOW
PUSHING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. STILL HAVE
CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR MONDAY, BUT PRECIP HAS TRENDED LIGHTER.
TEMPS COOL ON MONDAY BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THEN DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
AGAIN, GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH THE MODEL BLEND
BASICALLY DRY. TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH
MID-MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND NW AT KAVL BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS GO CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, TO THE TERMINALS ON MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/RWH
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