267
FXUS62 KGSP 042315
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
715 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT THURSDAY: A FAIRLY ROBUST LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE NC/TN BORDER AND
INTO THE NC MTNS. A HANDFUL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR 2,
BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKE THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MTNS.
AS FOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/EVENING,
THE STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR CWA. NONETHELESS, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT AND
500 TO 1500 J/KG OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SPC'S CURRENT DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THE MAIN THREAT
STILL APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT'S DOUBTFUL THAT ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL SURVIVE EAST OF THIS AREA TODAY/TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, BUT REMAIN ABOUT
A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER VERY BROAD UPPER TROFING THRU THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. THE TROF
DOES LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND TOMORROW ALLOWING HEIGHTS OVER OUR
AREA TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT, BUT THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC, A MOIST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE
OH VALLEY AND APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NW TODAY. THIS
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NC MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PRE-
VAILING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TONIGHT, WITH SKIES GRA-
DUALLY CLEARING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE, AS DEWPTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR-NORMAL OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MTNS. FOR FRIDAY, WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH WEAK, SWLY
WINDS PREVAILING. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POP-UP OVER THE
NC MTNS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
LOWER TERRAIN AND THE LOW TO MID-80S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM THURSDAY: AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AND THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THE FRONT MAY MOVE IN AT AN OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR TO OVERLAP, LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
TRENDS AS THE DAY APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION, ENDING BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS AND LOWS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MID-SUMMER LIKE WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE WARM, BUT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL ON THE
SOMEWHAT HUMID SIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 105 PM THURSDAY: THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A BRIEF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SHORT WAVE
THEN DIGS OUT A BAGGY LOOKING TROUGH OR EVEN A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
THE SE. AT THE SURFACE, DRY AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NE
WITH A RIDGE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A WEAK
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP A DRY
FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE WARM A FEW DEGREES.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A FEW LINGERING TSRA/VCSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
SITES THROUGH 02Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS
AFTERWARDS. OVERNIGHT, THE USUAL SPOTS KAVL AND KHKY, ESPECIALLY
AFTER RECEIVING RAIN, WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BR/FG. THEREFORE, A TEMPO
FOR BOTH SITES FOR 1/2SM VSBY FROM 09Z-13Z. AFTER SUNRISE,
CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY IMPROVE AND BECOME VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS AT KCLT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. FOR FRIDAY, EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER WITH NO VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN OUT OF THE SW.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CP
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