072
FXUS62 KGSP 111806
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES ARE TRENDING LATER FOR NEXT WEEK AND DO NOT LOOK TO
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AT THE EARLIEST ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER ANY DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
BROKEN ACROSS THE CLIMATE SITES NEXT WEEK, STARTING TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT QUITE AS DRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING.
2. DRY AND HOT MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO DROUGHT RELIEF IN
SIGHT. DAILY RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE
ON BREAKING RECORDS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT QUITE AS DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THEN FLATTENS ON
MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THEN WASHES OUT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY. CAM'S WERE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THIS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT AREA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, BUT THINK THE OVERALL POTENTIAL IS LOW. LOW CLOUDS DO
MOVE IN FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT BUT DON'T GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE I-
40 CORRIDOR OR WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM BOTTOMING OUT ON SUNDAY WITH
MIXING TAKING PLACE INTO THIS LAYER. EVEN WITH THAT, HAVE RH NEAR 25
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IF DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER, THEN LOWER RH
WOULD BE MORE COMMON. RH ON MONDAY COULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS, BUT THAT'S MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND HOT MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO DROUGHT RELIEF IN
SIGHT. DAILY RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
BREAKING RECORDS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST. MEANWHILE, THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
ON RAIN CHANCES REMAINS VERY LOW AS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY PUSHING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE PERIOD. THUS, NBM CHANCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR WARRANTED FOR
NOW. WITH NO REAL WETTING RAIN EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL, THE HEAT WILL GRADUALLY CRANK
UP TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON
STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS, LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON BOTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 90S. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON BREAKING
ANY RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE CLIMATE SITES (KAVL, KGSP, AND KCLT).
KAVL LOOKS THE LEAST LIKELY TO BREAK ANY DAILY RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK WITH CHANCES LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR BOTH KGSP AND KCLT.
KGSP WILL HAVE ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD HIGH ON
THURSDAY, WHILE KCLT WILL HAVE ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE TO BREAK THE
RECORD HIGH ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WASHES OUT ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP NW OF KCLT, BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL. THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR, OR EVEN IFR, STRATOCU
MAKING A RUN AT THE AIRFIELD FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, THE
MODELS, EVEN THE USUALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM, KEEP IT JUST TO THE NE.
THEREFORE, HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW020 TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL. BETTER
CHANCE AT KHKY, SO DO HAVE BKN MVFR THERE. VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS. DO EXPECT FEW TO SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. LIGHT
N TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
KAVL WHERE SOME LOW END GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT S TO SE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950
KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950
KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907
KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907
KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/RWH
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