510
FXUS62 KGSP 151109
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AGAIN TODAY WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH EXPECTED, BUT WIND
SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON.
2. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE
LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, PROVIDE LITTLE
RELIEF FROM ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AGAIN TODAY WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH EXPECTED,
BUT WIND SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE'S ONE THING THAT WILL SPOIL AN OTHERWISE BEAUTIFUL SPRING
DAY, IT WOULD BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MTNS TO THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 3-5 DEGREES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL, BUT THE DEWPOINT IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS DRY. THE CHANCES OF THE RH FALLING
BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE NEW HREF ARE AT BEST AROUND 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RIDGETOPS, WHILE MOST OF THE
AREA HAS A PROB OF 20 PERCENT. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE MODEL BLEND
ACCORDINGLY, WHICH BRINGS THE MIN RH THIS AFTERNOON DOWN INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED BECAUSE OF THE
ONGOING DROUGHT. FORTUNATELY, WITH THE HIGH CENTER MOVING OVERHEAD,
WIND SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WHILE LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS,
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF/RIDGE
PATTERN BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK,
CULMINATING IN AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFF CAPE HATTERAS
BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC HIGH GENERALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN BERMUDA HIGH FASHION INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK, AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL ADVECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES UP FROM THE SOUTH WHILE ALSO INCREASING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, TEMPS REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE START OF A STRETCH OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS
AROUND 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING SUNDAY AND EXTENDING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
BUT PROBABLY NOT HOT ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE ANY RECORDS. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, BUT THAT WON'T
BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE AFTERNOON RH MUCH ABOVE 35 PERCENT OR SO,
MEANING THE AIR MASS WILL STILL FEEL RELATIVELY DRY, AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T HOLD MUCH PROMISE
FOR RAIN UNTIL PERHAPS LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS LOOKS OVERLY OPTIMISTIC WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS FOR SUNDAY AND A MORE SUBDUED PRECIP
PROB IS FAVORED UNTIL THE CAMS SHOW SOME SUPPORT. EVENTUALLY, AS
THE PATTERN MOVES FORWARD BY MID-WEEK AS A STRONG WAVE LIFTS OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND TO OUR NORTH, THE EASTERN RIDGE GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE
AND WE GET INTO A BETTER SW FLOW ALOFT. THAT ALLOWS THE TRAILING
FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD AT LEAST TO THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY. WE SHALL
SEE IF THAT BRINGS MORE MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. IN
GENERAL, IT WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO SOME FOLKS MIGHT GET LUCKY,
BUT WITHOUT ANYTHING ORGANIZED, A LOT OF PLACES WON'T GET MUCH
RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STARTING OUT THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND IN
MOST PLACES. SOME VALLEY FOG IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN
A FEW SPOTS IN THE VALLEYS, BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR VALLEY FOG
AROUND KAVL, SO WE WILL MONITOR. EXPECT WIND TO RETURN FROM SW BY
LATE MORNING. THIS COULD BECOME A LIGHT CROSS-WIND AT KAVL FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN WITH SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page