883
FXUS62 KGSP 122327
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
727 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THE CWA REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE OUT WEST. HOWEVER,
INITIATION WILL BE LATER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE MORNING CLOUDS
SLOWING HEATING AND DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE DCAPE VALUES IN PLACE. AS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHUTS OFF THE
MCS CONVEYER BELT. GIVEN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR REMAINING THROUGH
FRIDAY, DAILY CHANCES FOR MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHER CHANCES ARE AS USUAL, OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS INTO
THE AREA. THE PROBABILITIES RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES
NEXT WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. WITH THESE HEIGHT RISES RETURNING,
HOTTER TEMPERATURES DO AS WELL. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW TO MID
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AND MID TO
UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. MODEL BLEND DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TOO HIGH, BUT
EVEN GOING WITH THE MORE LIKELY NUMBERS, HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 105. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES POTENTIALLY 105 OR HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED FRIDAY. HIGHS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA SATURDAY, BUT HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH. THE HEAT RETURNS NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUING. THIS KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN PLAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TOKEN ISOLATED DEEPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
LINGER ACRS THE FA THROUGH LATE EVENING, OTHERWISE VFR WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE PIEDMONT TAFS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KAVL WHERE DEVELOPING LATE NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
PROBABLE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACRS E TENN, THE REMNANTS OF WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MTNS OVERNIGHT. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION AT BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK: A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CSH/RWH
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