056
FXUS62 KGSP 120627
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NE GEORGIA
AND IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM TODAY.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY.
2. DRY AND HOT MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO DROUGHT RELIEF IN
SIGHT. DAILY RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER HUMIDITY EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND THEN FLATTEN ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH OUT OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED TO OUR N/NE AND MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SLY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING KEEP DEWPTS A BIT HIGHER COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS, RH VALUES STILL BOTTOM-OUT
AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA AND BELOW
30 PERCENT OVER NE GEORGIA. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE MARGINALLY
STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NE
GEORGIA, IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND HOT MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO DROUGHT RELIEF
IN SIGHT. DAILY RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING CONCERN FOR A POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEK. UPPER/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WHILE A
BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL
DEFLECT ANY BOUNDARIES OR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH THICKNESSES BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
LIKELY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY AND
RISING INTO THE LOW 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT
BY THE WEEKEND. WITH NO RELIEF IN SIGHT AND LACK OF RAINFALL,
THE HIGH HEAT STRESS WILL WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS HIGHS WILL
BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS SENDING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH VERY
LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, BUT CLOUDS MAY BE PRESENT
WITH SOME TOKEN POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC/TN BORDER. OTHERWISE,
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF EXCEPTIONAL HEAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAY BE
DANGEROUS FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AS DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL
BE IN JEOPARDY EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. KHKY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP FROM ROUGHLY 12 TO 16Z TODAY, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW
KEEPS ANY LOWER CLOUDS MOSTLY SCT OVER THE TERMINAL, WHICH IS WHAT
I HAVE IN THE CURRENT TAF. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VRB TO CALM THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP FROM THE NE AROUND DAY-
BREAK. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN SLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
INCREASING IN SPEED TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW-END
INTERMITTENT GUSTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE EVENING. AT
KAVL, CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP FROM THE SE LATER THIS
MORNING. THEY WILL VEER TO SLY THIS AFTN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO ROUGHLY 10 KTS WITH LOW-END GUSTS EXPECTED. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING SLY.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950
KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950
KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907
KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907
KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JPT
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