582
FXUS62 KGSP 281053
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED POP TODAY BASED ON RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING. DRYING THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION RETURNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
2. AFTER A FEW QUIET DAYS LATE THIS WEEK, THE NEXT ACTIVE SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THOUGH IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE A GREAT SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH-
NEEDED ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING. DRYING THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION RETURNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
CONVECTION. GENERALLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED. DRY BUT
LINGERING CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
ANOTHER MCS MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MORE CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER OVERALL WITH THIS
ALONG WITH HIGHER QPF. NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD THREAT BUT POTENTIALLY
BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS FOR MANY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF. THEY DO SEEM TO FAVOR NC AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK FOR THIS AREA. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A FEW QUIET DAYS LATE THIS WEEK, THE NEXT ACTIVE
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THOUGH IT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE A GREAT SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE A
MUCH- NEEDED ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, DRIVING A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE CAROLINAS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT, AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY, BUT
POSTFRONTAL CAA LOOKS WEAK, AND EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED, HIGH-ELEVATION AREAS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED AT BEST. THE MOST
NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLING...WITH HIGHS BACK NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND AT LEAST TWO CATEGORIES
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. DRY, UNPERTURBED CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THIS TIME BENEATH MOSTLY FLAT, UNPERTURBED UPPER FLOW.
BY LATE FRIDAY, OPERATIONAL MODELS DEPICT A Z500 TROUGH AMPLIFLYING
OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
OVER THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. RAPID ONSET OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...MEANING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAINFALL. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW,
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE
TO NO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP, BUT LREF PROFILES
DEPICT AT LEAST A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
THE LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST, SHIFTING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND USHERING IN ANOTHER BROAD SURFACE HIGH.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE TEMPOS FOR TSRA AND MVFR TO START. KCLT MAY ONLY SEE
SHRA. MVFR CIGS, IFR AT KHKY, REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AFTER THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST. VFR EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION RETURNS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE PROB30S AND
IFR FOR THIS. GENERALLY SW WIND TODAY, WITH VARIABLE AND POTENTIALLY
GUSTY WITH ANY CONVECTION. WIND TURNS NW AT KAVL FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER S WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT KEEPS RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/RWH
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