895
FXUS62 KGSP 100004
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH RETURNS TUESDAY.
2. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER, WITH
A VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
3. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH RETURNS TUESDAY.
SPLIT-FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY; AHEAD OF THE
DEEP CUTOFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA, HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OCCURS OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF, PROMOTING AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
FRONT WHICH EFFECTIVELY REACHED OUR CWA AND STALLED LATE SUNDAY WILL
BE REACTIVATED ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS, LEAVING A NW-SE
ORIENTED GRADIENT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM TN TO SC THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MCS CONTINUES TO STEADILY APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST THIS EVENING.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GSP CWA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. A FEW STRONG, SUB-SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN SC UPSTATE AS
THESE AREAS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE STRONGER PART OF THE
MCS TRACK OVERHEAD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS. SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS POTENTIAL AND
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MCS ENDS UP TRACKING. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO AS THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. PROG SOUNDINGS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY, THOUGH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE BETTER
CHANCE IS PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES WHICH THEN COULD PROPAGATE
EASTWARD.
CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS OR MORNING CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOOK TO
ADVECT OUT TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THAT DOES LOWER CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY
IN MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT CLT AND AVL DOES BREAK THE
DAILY RECORD, WITH GSP FALLING A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT--PERHAPS
REFLECTING GUIDANCE THAT HANGS ONTO THE CLOUD COVER LONGER. RECORD
WARM MIN TEMPS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE BROKEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER, WITH A VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING A REMNANT CUTOFF LOW OVER WESTERN TEXAS
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTERACTING WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE...AND SHOULD BEGIN
OPENING INTO THE MEAN FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY, RESULTING IN AN
ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS SPANNING THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AXIS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICT SLOWER PHASING OF
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AND WEAKER STEERING OVERALL. AS A RESULT,
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OCCURS MORE SLOWLY THAN IT
DID IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES, AND MUCH BETTER DEWPOINT POOLING
IS DEPICTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR THIS IDEA AS WELL,
WITH OVER HALF OF LREF MEMBERSHIP TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE THINKING REMAINS, THEREFORE, THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE
NONZERO BUT LIMITED. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE SEVERELY CONSTRAINED BY THE LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING TIMING
WHEN DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PEAK. WHATEVER NARROW
RIBBON OF DPVA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL UPLIFT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL DO SO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT,
ABSENT MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. AFTER 06Z THU, MODELS DEPICT
A NARROW TONGUE OF 50-100 J/KG SBCAPE DIPPING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT/SC UPSTATE...PAIRED WITH SOME 50-65KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE WHATEVER STORMS DEVELOP.
GIVEN SUCH SCANT INSTABILITY, IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE MORE THAN A A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE THE
CAPACITY TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA WILL SET UP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS ON THURSDAY, AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A NARROW WINDOW ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME ACCUMULATION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE,
ALLOWING THE CAROLINAS TO QUICKLY TOGGLE BACK TO A SOUTHERLY
MOIST RETURN FLOW...SO COLD, NEAR- OR EVEN BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALREADY BE TRENDING WARMER BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE
FANFARE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY THE TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IT'LL BE FADING TO OBSCURITY. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT TO
MORE OR LESS REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW-END POP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NC MOUNTAINS...AND A WARMING
TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST.
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
ON SUNDAY AS WELL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY THE ALLEGHENEYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT, DRIVING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON ITS TIMING
AND THE AVAILABILITY OF DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR; RIGHT NOW,
THERE'S TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE MUCH OF A SOLID ASSESSMENT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF -SHRA DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KAVL AND ACROSS THE SC TERMINALS AS A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS
APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST. CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HOLD TOGETHER ALL THE WAY TO KHKY OR KCLT REMAINS LOW SO WENT WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
BUT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS THAT SEE -SHRA DEVELOP.
BRIEF LLWS MAY DEVELOP AT KGSP AND KGMU FROM 06Z-10Z. CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT TUESDAY, WITH VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE MVFR
CUMULUS DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAY RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA), BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL REMAINS VERY LOW. THUS, WENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE SW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
LOW-END, INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND
DIRECTION AT KAVL SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VRB LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE W/WNW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES, AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JCW/MPR
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