389
FXUS62 KGSP 141818
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH EXPECTED FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
UNSEASONABLY COOL TONIGHT, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FRIDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE
LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, PROVIDE LITTLE
RELIEF FROM ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH EXPECTED
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, UNSEASONABLY COOL TONIGHT, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT A SOMEWHAT COOL AND QUITE
DRY AIR MASS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, SOME AREAS OF
CRITICAL RH OF 20-25 PERCENT HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. THUS, FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, DIMINISHING WINDS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN MIN TEMPS A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
RISING HEIGHTS RESPONDING TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY REBOUND, BUT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH OF 25-30% (IF
NOT LOWER) WILL AGAIN ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER ABOVE TYPICAL MID-MAY
LEVELS IN LIGHT OF THE ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FRI
NIGHT'S MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS/PERSISTENT
DRY AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WHILE LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS,
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BEFORE INCREASING TO 7 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING 90 DEGREES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 90 DEGREES SUNDAY RANGE FROM 25
TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
CONFIDENCE OF 90-DEGREE HEAT INCREASES FURTHER MONDAY, WHEN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES RISE INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE EARLY SEASON HEAT, HEAT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED BY A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING INTO THE LOWER
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITING MORE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS.
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY REMAIN LIMITED AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN THE ABSENCE
OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING, CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
DRIVEN BY TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND DAYTIME HEATING, RESULTING IN
ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS PATTERN IS
UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE MEANINGFUL RELIEF FROM ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIED TO WHETHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OR DECAYING
UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY CAN REACH THE MOUNTAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IF THIS OCCURS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. NBM MEDIAN SBCAPE VALUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 500 TO 800 J/KG, WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHERE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD IN BOTH THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH, WITH FASTER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS PRODUCING GREATER RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
SO, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. IN FACT, OTHER THAN FEW/MAYBE SCT CUMULUS IN THE 060-070
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT KAVL, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AT
OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SW BY EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JRK
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