562
FXUS62 KGSP 102321
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RECORD HIGHS AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY.
2. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
VERY LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK.
3. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
RETURN OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RECORD HIGHS AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, BUT WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. CAN'T RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE AND LACK
OF FORCING. VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BREAK RECORDS AT ALL THREE MAIN CLIMATE SITES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
A VERY LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK.
RAPID HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
IN THE MIDST OF PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ENCROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
DEEPENING PARENT LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE FRONT WILL PULL
IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, A LOT OF THE ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC
FORCING LIFTS NORTH WITH THE PARENT LOW AND MOST OF THE MODELS BRING
THE FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE COOLEST PART OF THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE A NARROW BAND OF 100-200 J/KG OF SBCAPE
TO GO ALONG WITH 55-65 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WHICH IS A SLIGHT
UPTICK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A POTENTIAL QLCS/DISORGANIZED
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. SEEMS APPARENT THAT
ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PROMINENT OVER THE
IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND LOSE ITS "OOMPH"
AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT ZONES BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT LOSES INSTABILITY AND
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO BEYOND THE CURRENT DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY).
POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING A COMPLETE FROPA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG CAA SPREADS ACROSS THE CWFA WITH
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING AS SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WHILE THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
WIDESPREAD 30S ACROSS THE AREA AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS A
TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW TO PICK BACK UP AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WITH A RETURN OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY, BUT ONLY
AN UPTICK IN GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAINS. GUIDANCE QUICKLY UNDERGOES WARM FRONTAL ACTIVATION BEFORE
A COMPLETE FROPA OCCURS, LEADING TO CONTINUED WARMING ON SATURDAY AS
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK
IN POPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
AS THE LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIME OF DAY IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS SUFFICIENT. ANOTHER COLD
SNAP IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNLESS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
PASSES OVER KCLT DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING AS THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSISTENTLY. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT S TO
SW OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW LOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER WE START TO MIX DEEPLY FROM LATE MORNING
ONWARD, THE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FROM THE SW. A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL NOT REACH THE TERMINALS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/PM/RWH
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