964
FXUS62 KGSP 280836
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EST MON NOV 28 2022
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST/D IN AREAS WHERE LLVL
MIXING HAS CONTINUED. EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT,
WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS PERSISTING UNDERNEATH A LOW CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE WRN ZONES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS AS A LLVL JET TRANSLATES THE AREA
THRU MID DAY.
A NICE DAY ON TAP AS AN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE FA AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN INCOMING H5 RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF HIPRES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SRN APPS AND KEEP THINGS DRY
AND RELATIVELY WARM. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY NOON AS THE MEAN FLOW
WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER REDUCES TO ARND 6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. FEW TO
SCATTERED FAIR-WX CU WILL FORM ALONG WITH SOME PASSING CI, BUT
OVERALL INSOL WILL BE HIGH WITH A WEAK MEASURE OF DOWNSLOPING EAST
OF THE MTNS. SO, EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NON/MTNS
AND M50S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS. CLEAR CONDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL RIGHT ARND NORMAL WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ARND DAYBREAK. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AS SFC TDD/S MAY
BE TOO HIGH AND THE SFC-LAYER REMAINS WEAKLY MIXED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE TUE TO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS BY LATE WED. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTHEAST OF A STRENGTHENING
CYCLONE WILL ESTABLISH A BROAD/MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT REGIME AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY LATE TUE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WED MORNING.
FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK, AND SOMEWHAT OUT OF PHASE WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP WILL OTHERWISE CLEAR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NW/COLD ADVECTION FLOW FINALLY PAVING WAY FOR
A RETURN TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WED NIGHT AND HEADING INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY: THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST, AND
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN
CONUS HEIGHT FALLS. ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY OSCILLATE TO
AND FRO ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT MAJOR
STORM SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A
MILDLY UNSETTLED FORECAST FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE, WITH GENERALLY TOKEN/SMALL POPS ADVERTISED
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND. RELATIVELY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NC MTN
VALLEYS AND AT KAND WHILE DISSIPATING THRU DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KAVL, YET CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TEMPO TO TAF. GUSTY CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN CURRENTLY WITH
OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUSTS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL AND
KAND IN BETTER LLVL MIXING. DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD, WINDS WILL
BECOME ALIGNED W/LY TO SW/LY OUTSIDE THE MTNS AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS
AND WINDS AT KAVL WILL SETUP NW/LY WITH LOW-END GUSTS RETURNING BY
MID-DAY.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK
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