106
FXUS62 KGSP 101907
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
INCREASED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE TAIL END OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM A DISSIPATED MCS WILL
HELP PROVIDE FORCING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT SHEAR
REMAINS MINIMAL ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT THEY SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY (TUESDAY).
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU FRIDAY BEFORE
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES BRINGS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THURS THRU THE WEEKEND, FAVORING
THE MTNS EACH DAY DUE TO THE RIDGE LIMITING INSTABILITY AND CREATING
HIGHER LFC'S OUTSIDE THE MTNS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
AREA THRU THE WEEKEND, WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY.
AT PRESENT, THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS IS HIGH THURS THRU SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS ABOVE
95 DEGREES IS LOWER FOR OUR AREA AND MORE LIKELY TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH. THIS STILL PRODUCES HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR
THURS, AND UP TO 103 DEGREES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN STEADILY FALL TO NEAR-NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, SCT CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED MOSTLY OVER THE NC MTNS, WITH SOME ACTIVITY ALSO OVER
THE SC UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH
PROB30S FOR TSRA UNTIL ROUGHLY 24Z AT MOST TERMINALS, AND A TEMPO
FOR TSRA AT KAVL FROM 18 TO 22Z OWING TO THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER
THE MTNS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT AT KAVL
AND KHKY, WITH A DECENT CHANCE AT KAND AS WELL. IT'S LESS LIKELY
AT KGSP, KGMU, AND KCLT, BUT STILL POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
DEWPTS REMAINING ELEVATED. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BURN OFF/DISSI-
PATE BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN SWLY THIS AFTN/
EVENING AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. WINDS AT KAVL AND KHKY WILL LIKELY GO
CALM OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS, WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW
AGAIN TOMORROW. WINDS AT KAVL WILL TOGGLE AROUND TO N/NW LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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