847  
FXUS62 KGSP 150607  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
207 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY, A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER WARM-UP  
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND  
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1137 PM TUESDAY: ANOTHER BENIGN "COPY AND PASTE" FORECAST AS  
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. A TALL AND AMPLIFIED  
RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A POTENT UPSTREAM  
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH  
SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MONOTONOUS FORECAST WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF  
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SENDS A  
DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING  
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. OTHERWISE, A FEW INSTANCES OF MOUNTAIN  
VALLEY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW MORNING,  
ESPECIALLY IN MOST FAVORED AND SHELTERED VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST  
ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH A STRONG UPPER  
RIDGE THAT WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AT THE START  
OF THE PERIOD, TO THE APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFLUENT  
FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST  
WILL SUPPORT 1020+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL PUSH AN EFFECTIVE DRY BACKDOOR  
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL  
SPELL A WEEK-ENDING COOLING TREND, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO COOL TO  
NEAR-NORMAL ON THURSDAY, AND EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE COMFORTABLY  
DRY, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND AFTERNOON RH  
DIPPING INTO THE 30-35% RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL  
TURN INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG UPPER  
LOW/INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
SWEEPS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE CWA, AS A CONSENSUS  
OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE UPPER JET WILL PASS  
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD  
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR ALONG A FAIRLY NARROW AXIS  
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GULF  
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS SUCH, IT WILL  
BE A BIT OF A STRUGGLE TO ADVECT 60S+ DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA ON  
SUNDAY...LIMITING THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY,  
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE FURTHER DISRUPTED DUE TO POTENTIAL  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE UPSTREAM AREA OF THE GULF COAST. ALL  
THINGS CONSIDERED, ANY CONVECTIVE BAND ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT  
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO BE MAINTAINED,  
ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. LIKELY POPS  
WILL THEREFORE BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH  
CHANCES TAPERING TO 30-40% OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A PERIOD  
OF ABOVE-NORMAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT,  
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN NIGHT THROUGH  
MON NIGHT, BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR-NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT  
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY FOCUS BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPORARY  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KAVL. OTHERWISE,  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.  
 
OUTLOOK: EXPECT MOSTLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU THE  
WEEK, EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW  
STRATUS EACH MORNING.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JDL  
NEAR TERM...TW  
SHORT TERM...JDL  
LONG TERM...JDL  
AVIATION...TW  
 
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