315  
FXUS62 KGSP 220801  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
401 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA  
TODAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO  
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COOLER CONDITIONS  
RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY: PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOWER  
ELEVATION LAKE AND RIVER FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND FROM FROSTY AND FREEZING CONDITIONS UNDER  
CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES. A LIGHT, DRY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY THE  
AFTERNOON, AS THE SFC HIGH TRANSLATES EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST  
UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE  
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE  
I-85 CORRIDOR WITH INCREASING CIRRUS ELSEWHERE. COULD BE MORE PATCHY  
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY: LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROJECT THE  
FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY MORNING, AS A QUIET ONE. WITH  
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE CENTRAL US BACK TO THE WEST, UPPER  
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN-NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL  
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO  
THURSDAY, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. WITH  
NW FLOW AND THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO  
PREVAIL. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END  
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL  
DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY: FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO  
THE WEEKEND, THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. HOWEVER,  
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE ANTICIPATED  
GULF SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THIS POTENTIAL, BOTH TEMPORALLY AND  
SPATIALLY, AS MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO LACK AS IT HAS OVER THE  
PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPED SYSTEM WILL PUSH  
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF FL AND RIDE UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST  
(TYPICAL MILLER A SETUP) FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP WOULD BRING RAIN  
(POTENTIALLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES), THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE BRIEF AS A ANOTHER SYSTEM  
DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS FOR THE ECMWF,  
WHILE THE GULF SYSTEM IS PROGGED AS WELL, LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS IT  
THROUGH GA AND CENTRAL SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS IT HUGS THE CAROLINA  
COAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF NW FLOW ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME ISOLATED, BRIEF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON  
SATURDAY. NOTICEABLY, THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER  
MIDWEST IS DISPLACED FROM THAT SUGGESTED OF THE GFS, LOWERING  
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY, AS  
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DIGS WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW,  
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY THUS FAR, HAVE KEPT WITH A GENERAL BLEND  
OF THE GUIDANCE. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, EXPECT DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES TO OVERALL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH OVERNIGHT  
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKY WITH CALM  
OR LIGHT N WIND OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT  
OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO WIND SHOULD COME UP LIGHT S  
BY LATE MORNING THEN SW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WIND DURING THE EVENING. ONLY A FEW THIN CIRRUS WILL MOVE  
OVERHEAD. THAT SAID, SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING  
OVER SC AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. RIGHT  
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THIS  
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CIGS.  
 
OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY  
NIGHT ONWARD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR THRU THURSDAY. PRECIP AND  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.  
 
CONFIDENCE TABLE...  
 
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-06Z  
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
 
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING  
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY  
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS  
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ017-018-026-  
028-029.  
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-  
048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ070>072-082.  
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DEO/SGL  
NEAR TERM...RWH  
SHORT TERM...SGL  
LONG TERM...SGL  
AVIATION...RWH  
 
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