090
FXUS62 KGSP 151911
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW CHANCES HAVE CREPT UPWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
2. FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS HAVE PRODUCED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES TO SPREAD. HOWEVER, THE COLD TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
3. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES,
MAINLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.
4. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INTEREST, GIVEN THE CONSISTENT
GFS DEPICTION OF SNOW POTENTIAL, BUT A LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW.
5. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS
INTO FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS SPREADING OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. WE ARE OB-
SERVING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ON SATELLITE, WITH THE EXCEP-
TION OF BKN TO SCT STRATOCU OVER THE NC MTNS. LIGHT, NW FLOW
SNOW FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE FAVORED WEST-FACING
SLOPES ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER THRU THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE TAPER-
ING OFF ENTIRELY BY SUNSET. WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL NOW
DONE, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TAPERING
OFF THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. OVER THE NC MTNS, THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY INTO LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
VISIBILITY ISSUES IN THE MTNS, WHERE BLOWING SNOW KICKED UP
BY WIND GUSTS CREATES PROBLEMS. ADDITIONALLY, VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS, AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING, AND A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING FOR ELE-
VATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS HAVE PRODUCED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES TO SPREAD. HOWEVER, THE COLD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, WE'VE SEEN DEWPTS MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING MOST SITES
REPORTING RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 35% RANGE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONSEQUENTLY, FINE FUEL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL
LIKELY BE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES
TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS SUCH, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA, NE GEORGIA, AND
PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA ZONES UNTIL 7 PM. IN ADDITION, CONDITIONS
LOOK FAVORABLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER,
AND ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY. IF YOU
BURN, USE EXTREME CAUTION!
KEY MESSAGE 3: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
UPSTATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN MINOR
TRAVEL ISSUES, MAINLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.
A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BOTTOM OF A DIGGING
UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SHEAR OUT AS
THE WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO
JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DPVA, JUST ENOUGH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM A
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS, JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET AXIS, JUST ENOUGH WSW UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS, AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD
OF THE WAVE TO SUPPORT PRECIP DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST OVER THE
MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES/TEMPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO. THE FORCING LIFTS
PAST TO THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY WHILE NOT TRANSLATING MUCH EAST
OF THE MTNS SUCH THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT AND DRYING UP BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. THAT SAID, PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA. IN THOSE LOCATIONS, SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SLEET MIXING IN
AT ANY LOCATION WHERE PRECIP DEVELOPS AS THE TEMPS WET BULB DOWN IN
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. AGAIN, ANY SLEET WOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. QPF REMAINS THE QUESTION
AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS. THIS TRANSLATES TO SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THERE. THAT SAID, COUNTY WIDE AVERAGES WOULD
LIMIT ANY ADVISORIES TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRODUCTS FOR NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 4: WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INTEREST, GIVEN
THE CONSISTENT GFS DEPICTION OF SNOW POTENTIAL, BUT A LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DEEPEN THE
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE AND TROF
AXIS CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS CREATES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE AS WELL. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH AGREES ON THIS,
ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
DEVELOPS. THEY ALSO DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE
WHEN THE PRECIP DEVELOPS. THE NAM HAS COME IN WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
AND PRECIP FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS REMAINS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW; HOWEVER, IT HAS SHIFTED THE PRECIP AXIS TO OUR
EAST LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWFA BOUNDARY. THE CANADIAN REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR
ALL THE MOUNTAINS BUT HAS SHIFTED THE PRECIP AXIS TO THE EAST. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COLD ENOUGH, BUT IS BASICALLY DRY WITH ALL THE
PRECIP TO OUR EAST. THE GEFS MEAN CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE PRECIP AXIS
EAST BUT HAS ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR AREA. THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO TRENDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AT MOST. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUES. THE MODEL BLEND, AND OUR FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY,
SHOWS AN INCH OF SNOW BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GREENWOOD-
SPARTANBURG-HICKORY LINE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. THE
EVENTUAL RESULT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PRECIP AXIS AND COLD
AIR AVAILABILITY, SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LIKELY
CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGE 5: ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WAVE MOVING PAST SUNDAY, WE SHOULD REMAIN
AT THE BOTTOM OF A DEEP LONG WAVE UPPER TROF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS A
REINFORCING COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS THAT SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY BEHIND THE ALREADY COLD AIR MASS FOR
MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEARLY AS COLD, UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE LOW TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP INTO
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF
KAVL SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCT THIS AFTN/EVENING. OTHERWISE,
OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU THE AFTN, WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING AT MOST SITES THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BACK FROM N/NW TO EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER-
NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP FROM
THE S/SW TOMORROW AFTN WITH MORE LOW-END GUSTS EXPECTED. AT KAVL,
WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY AND GUSTY THRU THE EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT, WITH THEM GOING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AT KAVL WILL TOGGLE AROUND TO SLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
053.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
058-059-062-063.
SC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
JPT/RWH
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