588
FXUS62 KGSP 120525
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. DRY AND BRIEFLY COOLER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. DRY AND BRIEFLY COOLER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A
COOL AND DRY PATTERN FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY
WEDNESDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO
TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO NEUTRAL. DESPITE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR ASCENT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AS
THE POOR TROUGH ORIENTATION WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS, A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD
RESIDE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. UNFORTUNATELY, ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND WON'T HELP TO NOTICEABLY ALLEVIATE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
FLATTENS BY THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL FOSTER A
RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND. A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DIG OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME MAY SEND A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE
AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METARS STILL SHOW
CLOUDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA AT TIME OF 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN BANKED UP AGAINST
THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT AND MAY OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG AT
KAVL THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MEANWHILE, GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT
AN IFR STRATUS DECK, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH PATCHY FOG, MAY FORM
ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT, WHICH WARRANTS A TEMPO AT KHKY FOR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WHATEVER FORMS SHOULD
STAY NORTH OF KCLT, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THRU
DAYBREAK. AND FINALLY, A VFR-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS
THE UPSTATE. OVERALL, THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, LEAVING MAINLY A FEW CIRRUS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FEW-SCT CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THRU THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE TO ENE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU
ABOUT MIDDAY, THEN TOGGLE TO SE AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MAY CROSS TO OUR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL WILL BE PALTRY WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, VFR AND QUIET WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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