622
FXUS62 KILM 311825
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACTS FROM THIS WINTER STORM.
THERE IS A SOLID BAND OVER THE WATER THAT HAS BROUGHT SOME
SNOWFALL TO PENDER COUNTY, AND THEN THE LARGER BAND INLAND WHICH
IS SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND
INFRASTRUCTURE, RANGING FROM HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AND CLOSURES.
2) A VERY COLD AIR MASS PAIRED WITH SNOWFALL WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS COLD AND RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES BELOW 15-20 DEGREES WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
3) DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A GALE WARNING
IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE, RANGING FROM HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES.
SNOWFALL IS INCREASING THIS EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE
EAST AND WEST. THE BATTLE OF THE POTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONE (CLOUD
TOPS ARE STILL COOLING) AND OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING. THIS
IS ALLOWING SNOW TO DRIFT ONSHORE WITH SOME DECENT REFLECTIVITY. THE
ACTIVITY INLAND IS MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE BUT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS MUCH HIGHER IT APPEARS MORE EFFICIENT. SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA
OUTLET FOR ANY REPORTS OR ACCUMULATIONS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
NOISY WITH ANY AXIS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS/BANDING BUT THERE REMAINS A
GENERAL CONSENSUS (THE 12 UTC GFS IS BACK ON BOARD) WITH AN ARC KIND
OF MIRRORING/CONFIGURATION OF THE CWA WITH 5-8 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH LESSER VALUES CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT'S GOING TO BE A SNOWY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE AREAS WHICH GET A BIT LESS
AND SOME AREAS THAT GET MORE. ONE FINAL NOTE...IF YOU THINK YOU
HEAR THUNDER LATE TONIGHT YOU MAY JUST BE RIGHT. THE HRRR LIGHTNING
DENSITY (12 UTC) SHOWS A SMALL SIGNAL ACROSS BASICALLY COLUMBUS AND
PENDER COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITY AND
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A VERY COLD AIR MASS PAIRED WITH SNOWFALL WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS COLD AND RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES BELOW 15-20 DEGREES WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
DANGEROUS COLD WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA TONIGHT AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL AND TEMPERATURES DROP. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL HOLD FOR
INLAND UNTIL THE ENTIRE AREA IS PUT UNDER AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
TONIGHT, WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW 5 DEG BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 1 EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND WINDS START TO ABATE
SUNDAY WE'LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE SNOW PACK AND LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE STILL FRIGID AIR
MASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY AND CRITERIA BEING MET AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
FURTHER RECOVER INTO MONDAY BUT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS IN SPOTS MAY
WARRANT ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
NEARLY ALL OF OUR CLIMATE SITES COULD SEE RECORD-BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 1-3 ARE IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 3) DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT.
MARINE SECTION BELOW HAS MORE INFO ON MARINE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE EXPECTED AND OR
ONGOING SNOWFALL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS OF
30-40 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE TICKED HIGHER WITH OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
AND GUSTS JUST INCREMENTALLY HIGHER AS WELL. WHILE CERTAINLY A
PROLIFIC EVENT IT APPEARS WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLY BELOW
STORM CRITERIA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AS GALE FORCE GUSTS WANE AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, THE GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED BY A SCA. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. 3-5 FT SEAS WILL RELAX TO 2-3 FT BY
TUESDAY WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND 5 FOOTERS
THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FEB 1 - FEB 3
ILM: 14 IN 1936; 17 IN 1980; 13 IN 1917
FLO: 20 IN 2010; 18 IN 1980; 19 IN 1980
CRE: 20 IN 1945; 20 IN 1945; 19 IN 1942
LBT: 4 IN 1936; 11 IN 1980; 13 IN 1980
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...LEW
DISCUSSION...SHK/LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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