147
FXUS62 KILM 301053
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY NEAR RECORD LEVELS INLAND.
2) VERY LOW RISK FOR TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY NEAR RECORD LEVELS INLAND.
MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BECOME ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
(WITH 700MB, 500MB, AND 200MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE THE 99.5TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT THEN
SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD YIELD WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE THEY COULD BE
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER HIGH AND DEEP-
LAYER FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST, PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, LEADING TO
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OFFER RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT. NEVERTHELESS, THE DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN EACH
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO LOWER DEW POINTS AND KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
VERY NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURES, EXCEPT AROUND THE SEA BREEZE WHERE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S WILL LOCALLY RAISE DEW POINTS
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES, EVEN IF TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND IT.
THE SPECIFICS ON WHEN AND WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (105-109F FOR 2+ HOURS) ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE
COMING DAYS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS THE HOTTEST PERIOD WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD FOR THE DANGEROUSLY HOT
CONDITIONS AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. CHECK OUT OUR HEAT PAGE
(WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR THE LATEST HEAT FORECAST/SAFETY INFO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...VERY LOW RISK FOR TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MID WEEK.
THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
PROSPECTS FOR ANY WEAK SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST
VERY LOW (10%) AND HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ONCE AGAIN A 1-2KFT CIG IS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
AS WITH YESTERDAY THIS MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE,
WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
06Z WED THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR W/ GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.
MARINE
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL, SHIFTING FROM
NORTH OF THE AREA TO EAST OF THE AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY IN THE OFFSHORE 20-60 NM ZONES, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST DUE TO THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER, WINDS/WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH HEADLINE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS LATER THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR JULY 3-5...
JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...MBB
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