088
FXUS62 KILM 170437
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A FREEZE WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE EXISTING
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY WAS THE
ONLY FORECAST ZONE AWAITING A POTENTIAL UPGRADE. VARIOUS PROBABILITY
SOURCES HAVE NUDGED PROBS FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES UPWARD DUE TO
ADVECTION BEHIND A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS, THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL AREAS OF
OUR CWA.
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT CERTAIN. AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WHICH WOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH IT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT WINDS, THIN CIRRUS COULD LIMIT VARIABILITY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM-OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA; AROUND FREEZING NEAR THE COAST.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ELONGATES, SETTING
UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. NOT A PATTERN THAT WOULD LEAD TO
CALM WINDS. ADDITIONALLY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
CLOUD COVER, WHICH COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER, PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF SE NORTH CAROLINA AND NE SOUTH CAROLINA.
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR. LINGERING GUSTINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES PRIOR TO POST-
SUNRISE MIXING. DEEP MIXING IN DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON COULD MIX DOWN
SOME PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING
AND ANY EXISTING GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... BREEZY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE ADVISORY END TIMES
ARE STAGGERED BETWEEN SC AND NC NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS ATTEMPTS
TO REFLECT THE GRADUAL CESSATION OF 6 FOOT SEAS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SEAS LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR THE NC NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY. COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
SOME GUSTINESS UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WED THROUGH FRI WILL
BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH BY LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ITS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAKENING
NORTHERLY SURGE WED MORNING WILL LEAD TO WINDS AROUND 15 KT, BUT
BY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT. ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT
KEEPS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAK THROUGH FRI. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHED SOUTH EARLY SAT, BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15 KT. SEAS ON THE HIGH END OF THE 2-4 FT RANGE WED
MORNING SETTLE CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MIDDAY WED AND GENERALLY STAY
ON THE LOW END OF THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...21
DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
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