913
FXUS62 KILM 231831
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE KEY MESSAGES/DISCUSSIONS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AND THE MARINE
SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
AND AGAIN DURING MONDAY.
2) AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN DURING MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CHANNELED PLUME OF MOISTURE
OFFSHORE WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. IN ADDITION, A WEAK FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH THE SEA
BREEZE, SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
AGAIN TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS
AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PWAT DISTRIBUTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE CORE OF MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS TX/NM/AZ
THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE H5 TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MID-WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE OLD FRONT THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO WAFFLE BACK TO THE
NORTH BY THE END OF WEEK. A WEAK INLAND TROUGH ALONG WITH BETTER
SUPPORT ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE ABOVE
2 INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE
THEN ALL SIGNS POINT TO HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OTHER THAN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS WITH THE DIURNAL CUMULUS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/FOG LOOK LESS PROMISING TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
IN THE END STILL COULD SEE SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KFLO/KLBT
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY AND STALL. THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE
WILL RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION MONDAY, BUT PRIMARILY AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF WINDOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY CREATE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM THE MID TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS FROM TIME TO TIME IN/NEAR ANY OF THE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WITH S-SWLY FLOW PREVAILING
ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
S-SWLY TO ITS EAST AND SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS. THE OLD BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY MID-WEEK WITH AN INCREASE
IN S-SWLY FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL, SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OFFSHORE, AND 1-3 ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP
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