408
FXUS62 KILM 020009
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
709 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SOAKING RAIN IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DRYING IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z/02 TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE HAS PRODUCED A WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS.
CONTINUOUS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD REINFORCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AND
LOWER OVERNIGHT. LOWS A LITTLE COOLER THAN AFTERNOON HIGHS: UPPER
30S INLAND MID TO UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP INTO THE SHALLOW COOL AIR LAYER WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NEAR THE
COAST, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH ONSHORE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS
WILL BRIEFLY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S, POSSIBLY LOWER
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TOTAL RAINFALL HAS SETTLED INTO A TIGHTER RANGE WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO PASS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OFFSHORE. RAIN RATES SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER OVERALL BECAUSE OF
THIS. HREF LPMM HAS MAX QPF OF AROUND 2.00 INCHES WITH BETTER
CHANCES INLAND. GENERALLY, THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE COAST BRINGING AROUND 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND EXITING STORM SYSTEM TUES
NIGHT INTO WED. CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH COLD
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHERLY FLOW. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS
IT DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD ON WED. BETWEEN THE CAA TUES NIGHT
AND DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS WED NIGHT, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BE DOWN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES. THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WILL EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. THE HIGH
TEMP ON WED WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN INTO THE SW CONUS WILL BE EXTENDING FROM
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA ON THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN MID TO UPPER W-SW FLOW EXTENDING BACK
INTO EUR PACIFIC. AT THE SAME TIME A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTH REACHING THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY FRI. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RAIN EVENT LATE FRI INTO SAT AS
THE SHALLOW COOL AIR GETS OVERRUN BY THE INCREASING WARM AND
MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE SW. EXPECT BEST LIFT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. COULD BE
SIMILAR TO TOMORROW BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF LOW EVOLVES. FOR NOW, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. AS MOISTURE RISES WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
SEVERAL DEGREES LATE THURS INTO FRI, TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST MORNINGS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
ALSO AFFECT THE TEMPS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT
BY SUN WITH DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CIGS ARE WORKING NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE TERMINALS
SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. A THICK DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS
VEILING THESE CIGS, SO THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK
THAT WILL NOT BE FORESEEN AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. COINCIDENT WITH THIS
RAIN WILL BE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
ALTHOUGH VIS SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY STAY MVFR IN RAIN AND MIST,
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING HOURS, RESULTING
IN IFR TO LIFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. A COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT
MAY CREEP INLAND ENOUGH DURING MID-MORNING TO YIELD A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD (AROUND 2 HOURS) OF LITTLE TO NO RAIN
AND A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
THIS WINDOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD
AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LLWS WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR EASTERN TERMINALS FROM AROUND THE TIME OF THIS
COASTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE BEACHES THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS PEAKING AT AROUND 50KTS AT 2KFT. RAIN WILL ABATE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
RISING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS MAY
STILL BE IN PLACE BY 00Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRINGS
RESTRICTIONS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CREATED A WEDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MOVE NORTHEAST, COMPRESSING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA. AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SC AND SOUTHEASTERN NC COASTLINE,
EASTERLY WINDS OFFSHORE WILL INCREASE ABOVE SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS SHOULD SURPASS 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RELAX.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND EXITING STORM SYSTEM TUES NIGH INTO WED WITH SEAS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT TUES NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME A BIT MORE VARIABLE AS HIGH SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND
WEAKENS ON THURS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH
EARLY FRI FOLLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS FRI
INTO SAT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS UP TO 3
EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/21
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