599
FXUS62 KILM 021009
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
609 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK
2) STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD, RE-AMPLIFYING
INTO A CLOSED OVER THE NE US AND INTO SE SE CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE SE
US/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH EARLY TODAY, PLACING THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY WITH A
WARM TROPICAL AIRMASS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PERSISTENT DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CUT-OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PWATS OF 2.0-2.50"(125-150% OF NORMAL)
WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MID WEEK, HEAVY AT TIMES.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AS
MODERATE BUOYANCY COMBINES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY, WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
CUT-OFF LOW MEANDERS NEARBY. BY THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS AWAY, CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME
PATTERN.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS TRACKING OVER THE SAME LOCATION COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED TOTALS WELL IN EXCESS OF THE 1-2" AREAL AVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING NEAR KINGSTREE IN
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY, WHERE AN ISOLATED 6-7" OR RAINFALL FELL. THE
LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED MEANS(LPMM)FROM THE 00Z/02 HREF HIGHLIGHTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3"+ ACROSS WESTERN/INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALLY SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY WEAK
LAPSE RATES, HIGHS IN THE 80S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY, WITH WET MICROBURSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND FREQUENT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW EARLY AUGUST CLIMATOLOGY, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 85 TO 90 THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS
AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE, INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS UP THROUGH 13-14Z.
TEMPERED DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL LIFTING OF ANY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODERATE BUOYANCY COMBINES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT
CEILINGS EXPECTED.
LIGHT S-SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17
KTS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
KTS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
REGION, COMBINED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS, WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. PERIODIC
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS EACH DAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SE VEER TO THE S
TONIGHT, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE COAST. SEAS START TO
INCREASE MODESTLY AT FIRST, GOING FROM 2-3 FT TO 3-5 FT. WINDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE OUT OF THE S TO SSW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT
NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM, EXPIRING AT 8 PM EDT MONDAY. IN RESPONSE
TO THESE GRADIENT WINDS, SEAS RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 4-7 FT OUT 20 NM,
UP TO 7-8 OUT 60 NM, BEFORE IMPROVING GRADUALLY TOWARDS 3-4 FT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE S TUESDAY,
IMPROVING TO A MODERATE BREEZE, AND THEN TOWARDS A GENTLE BREEZE BY
THURSDAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO 2-3 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...CBL
DISCUSSION...CBL
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...IGB/CBL
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