405
FXUS62 KILM 030610
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES HAVE BEEN WIDENED BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND LARGE DAY-TO-NIGHT TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH SUMMERTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER AND LARGE DAY-TO-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
RANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR HAS BEEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS,
AROUND +8C, SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE
WILL MIX UP AND WELL BEYOND THE 850 MB LAYER YIELDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT MEAN DESPITE THE OVERALL MODERATING
AIRMASS THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE FOR A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION DESPITE RISING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PUSH EAST AND OFF THE COAST
BY SUNDAY, COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASING FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SUNDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD REACH 85-90 DEGREES
WITH DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
12-14Z SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN QUICKLY AT
SUNSET.
EXTENDED FORECAST...ASIDE FROM A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
MARINE
THERE'S A 15 MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20 TO
OCCASIONALLY 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE A
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH REACHES THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND THEN FINALLY MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
ON FRIDAY.
STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE PAST DAY HAVE BUILT AN IMPRESSIVE
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS LENGTHENING TO
AROUND 10 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE SC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND
INTO TONIGHT FOR THE NC WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA
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