312
FXUS62 KILM 131017
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS
CONVERGING WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED TODAY ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD EXPAND
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LEADING TO SUSTAINED
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
AT THE SURFACE, BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND DIRECTION. THE BEACHES WILL
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW AND DAILY SEABREEZES OFF WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY HAVE A
REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BOTH DAYS WHEN MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS
STRONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THERE SHOULD BE TOO
LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT DURING THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES TO DEVELOP.
RECORD HIGHS WITHIN 2 DEGREES OR BEING TIED/BROKEN LATER THIS
WEEK:
WILMINGTON: FRIDAY APR 17 RECORD HIGH IS 89 FROM 2006.
FLORENCE: THURSDAY APR 16 RECORD HIGH 90 FROM 2006,
AND SATURDAY APRIL 18'S RECORD HIGH IS 93 FROM 1981.
LUMBERTON: FRIDAY APR 17 RECORD HIGH IS 91 FROM 2006,
AND SATURDAY APR 18'S RECORD HIGH IS 91 FROM 1941
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AIRMASS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE LATEST GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY, APRIL 19. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD FLATTEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE'S
ONLY A VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
ITS PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SOMETIME SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY WHAT
LOOKS TO BE OUR ONLY NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE
COMING SEVEN DAYS. EVEN THEN WE'RE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THREE-WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.2 TO 0.6 INCHES ARE ONLY 10 TO
30 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES. SIX MONTH RAINFALL IS 9 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL IN WILMINGTON AND ALMOST 11 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH. ONGOING DROUGHT, CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED ACROSS
OUR PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS AS D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT) TO D2
(SEVERE DROUGHT) COULD WORSEN IN THE WEEKS AHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 12Z TAFS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY
AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
AFFECT SOME OF THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS HEADING INTO
SUNRISE TODAY AND AGAIN TUES MORNING. MAINLY EXPECT SOME MVFR,
BUT LBT WAS DOWN TO LIFR THIS MORNING BUT WILL CLEAR OUT BY 13Z.
WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS
ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IN SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR
FOG HEADING INTO SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...ESE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SSW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING AROUND 10 KTS THE WHOLE TIME, BUT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1 TO 3 FT WITH A PERSISTENT
ESE SWELL AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE HIGH SHOULD SIT ESSENTIALLY OVER
BERMUDA WITH A 1024 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR
THE CAROLINAS, SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH WIND SPEEDS VARYING FROM AROUND 10 KT DURING THE MORNINGS
TO AS MUCH AS 15-20 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DAILY SEABREEZES. THESE VALUES COME FROM MARINE
MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS AND NAM MODELS. THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO WARM AND DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SEAS WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE SHOULD CONSIST OF AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY 10 SECOND SWELL PLUS LOCAL SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ/TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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