304
FXUS62 KILM 192344
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS. ADDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MARINE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
2) VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT, MAINLY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT, POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LOWS MON NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY.
AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND BUILDING MID-UPPER RIDGING
WILL RESULT IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORDS). ALTHOUGH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE,
THEY SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MID-MORNING AS MIXING GETS
UNDERWAY, SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30-40 MPH AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY, BUT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND THIN OUT AS
THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT, MAINLY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SC AS
THE AREA BRIEFLY GETS INTO A WEAK WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WITH GENERALLY ABOUT 0.5-
0.75" BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 1" ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT,
POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LOWS MON NIGHT.
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS MON/TUE WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 50 WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 30. COULD EVEN BE
NEAR RECORD LOWS AT FLORENCE/N. MYRTLE BEACH MON NIGHT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS). WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE WELL DOWN INTO THE
20S EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SUN/MON NIGHTS. WIND CHILLS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE BUT THE CHANCE FOR REACHING 15 DEGREES
OR COLDER (I.E., COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA) IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE INLAND
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS COMING OFF THE OCEAN.
GIVEN CURRENT TRAJECTORIES AND PAST HISTORY, CRE AND MYR SHOULD BE
MOST AFFECTED BUT IT MAY BE ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW, HAVE INDICATED 1-4 SM VSBYS IN THESE TERMINALS BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY COULD GO BELOW 500 FT AT TIMES. INLAND TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL DAYBREAK WHEN MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH HEATING. AFTER SUNRISE, GUSTY SW WINDS SHOULD MIX OUT
COASTAL FOG WHILE SHOWERS WILL APPROACH INLAND TERMINALS FROM THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONT AND
PASSING LOW PRESSURE. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH THE
THREAT OF FOG AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. VFR SHOULD RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
STALLS ON LAND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED TO THIS
APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AND SEAS
UP TO 6 FT ON FRIDAY, WITH A SCA RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
SEAS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 2-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 3-6 FT ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AND A
SECONDARY CONTRIBUTION FROM A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL OF 1-2 FT
EVERY 12 SECONDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STARTING LATE SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MON NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
STARTING SUN NIGHT. SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A RISK INTO EARLY SUN AS A
WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR 2/20/2026...
WILMINGTON NC - KILM (81 LAST SET IN 1991)
LUMBERTON NC - KLBT (80 LAST SET IN 2018)
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC - KCRE (77 LAST SET IN 1949)
FLORENCE SC - KFLO (83 LAST SET IN 2014)
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/24/2026...
WILMINGTON NC - KILM (18 LAST SET IN 1901)
LUMBERTON NC - KLBT (18 LAST SET IN 1978)
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC - KCRE (26 LAST SET IN 2009)
FLORENCE SC - KFLO (24 LAST SET IN 1968)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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