239
FXUS62 KILM 051801
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ROTATE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN NC COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST, THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FURTHER INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN SW-ERLY
TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD TEND TO KEEP OFFSHORE SHOWERS ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. A STRAY SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE
ALONG A MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT CLOSER. INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW BEING
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2:SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT.
MAY SEE A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RUN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE MAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SAT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH, WITH MORE IN THE WAY
OF POSSIBLE CLOUDS IN OUR AREA. BY SUNDAY, PCP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE NOT
ALIGNED WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES, BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY LATER ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THICKER
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AS A RESULT OF THE SEABREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY MAY
PRODUCE EARLY MORNING STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME RELATIVELY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS WITHIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A STIFF SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO CREATE
CHOPPY SEAS NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. SEAS INCREASE FROM 1-2 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
TO 3-4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SSW FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF OFFSHORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS AND SEAS THEN
RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE
15 TO 20 KTS WITHIN 20 NM WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS, AND SEAS
MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT THU AFTN INTO THU EVENING. THEREFORE, AT THIS
TIME, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. BEYOND 20 NM, IN THE 20-60 NM RANGE, WINDS COULD REACH
UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT THU AFTN
INTO THU EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING IN OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR FRI AND SAT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL
OCCUR LATE SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/21
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