868
FXUS62 KILM 141906
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NC COASTAL WATER ZONES
STARTING AT NOON ON SUNDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAS INCREASED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HAS
INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING IMPACTS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WELL.
2) NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING IMPACTS DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. A FEW GUSTY STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
WELL.
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE AS A VERY DEEP AND
SHARP TROUGH IN THE JETSTREAM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DELIVER A MAJOR SNOWSTORM ON
ITS NORTH SIDE WHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR IS DRAWN OUT OF
THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT. CLOSER TO
HOME, THIS MASS RESPONSE WILL PULL A STALLED FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BACK TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY, LIFTING IT THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATER ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BANDS OF STORMS EXPECTED AS
IT APPROACHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SEVERE WINDS OF
60MPH OR GREATER AND ISOLATED FAST-MOVING TORNADOES. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST UPDATES REGARDING THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER IN THE TIMING OF THE THREAT.
ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SETUP WHICH WILL BE OVERRUN BY
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING, WITH EAST WINDS
DURING THE DAY TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING, THEN
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL COOLING TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION, AS INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW AT THE JETSTREAM LEVEL OVERSPREADS THE AREA,
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BAND OR
TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THESE BANDS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO, PARTICULARLY IF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TAKE SHAPE DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
ON MONDAY, THE APPROACHING JETSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AND WINDY DAY AS VERY STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL NOT NEED MUCH SURFACE WARMING TO GET TO THE GROUND. IN FACT, A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS OCCURS,
AS GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH ARE QUITE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION, STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. NEVERTHELESS, WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE, ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY TAKE SHAPE
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION, WHICH COULD BRING THEIR OWN THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FAST-MOVING TORNADOES, AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD FEATURE ITS OWN BAND OF CONVECTION,
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THIS WILL DECAY AS IT DRAWS NEARER
TO THE COAST, LIKELY OWING TO THE SOUTH WINDS BRINGING IN STABLE
MARINE AIR NEARER TO THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS, INLAND AREAS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WINDS AND POSSIBLY LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BAND, EVEN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.
SPC MAINTAINS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 OR AT LEAST A 30%
CHANCE) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SIGNIFICANT
WIND GUSTS (>75MPH) POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH
WINDS TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND IT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A PERIOD OF NEAR- TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH FROST WILL POSE A THREAT TO UNPROTECTED PLANTS AND CROPS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A BROAD ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING DOWN TEMPERATURES
FROM THE 70S ON MONDAY INTO THE 30S BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A STEADY 5-10 KTS BY SUNRISE, WHETHER OR
NOT TEMPS REACH THE FREEZING MARK WILL DEPEND STRICTLY ON THE
ADVECTION OF AIR THAT IS COLD ENOUGH. TYPICALLY, THE FIRST NIGHT
BEHIND COLD FRONTS END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO THE WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SUPPORTS MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AMIDST VERY DRY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S OR EVEN THE
TEENS. SKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AS VERY DRY AIR SHOULD BE
IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE
CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES MOSTLY UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
AREA, THESE MAY NEED TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT AS THE RECENT STINT OF VERY WARM
TEMPS HAS SPARKED A SIGNIFICANT GREEN-UP, LEADING TO OUR
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM STARTING EARLIER THAN USUAL.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS, WHICH COULD YIELD EXTENSIVE FROST AS DEW POINTS RISE
ON NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DURING THE PRECEDING DAY. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT CLOUDINESS MAY HAMPER COOLING AND PREVENT FROST IN
SOME AREAS, SO THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION MAY
BECOME MORE OUT OF THE ENE LATE TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SOME MVFR FOG
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY INLAND. THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z AT THE LATEST. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS LIKELY. CEILINGS WILL
START TO DROP TOWARDS MVFR BY AROUND 15Z OR SO, GENERALLY FILLING IN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MAY EVEN SEE IFR CEILINGS START TO FORM NEAR
THE COAST BY 16-18Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY THEY WILL BE. THREW IN
VCSH AT EACH TERMINAL TO BE SAFE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECKS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME EVEN WORSE ON MONDAY, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA, LIKELY BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER. VFR SHOULD RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...VARIABLE WINDS START BUILDING OUT OF THE ESE AROUND
10 KTS BY LATE THIS EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS BUILD UP QUICKLY, STARTING FROM 1-2 FT TO 2-
4 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ALL THE WAY UP TO 4-6 FT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
SURF CITY, NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC. AS SUCH, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THESE WATERS, WHICH STARTS OFFICIALLY
AT NOON EDT SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND HIGHER SEAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KTS BY SUNRISE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS SHOULD AFFECT
THE WATERS FROM LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS
CONFLUENCE BANDS TAKE SHAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH STRONG
WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. WHEN THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, THIS WILL BRING ONE FINAL
ROUND OF STRONG STORMS AND WIND GUSTS MAY REACH GALE FORCE AROUND
THE TIME OF ITS PASSAGE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL TAKE OVER IN ITS
WAKE, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH TUESDAY TO AROUND 10
KTS. WINDS REBOUND ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
ARRIVES ON NORTH WINDS BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY.
SEAS WILL ALREADY BE 4-6FT IN THE NC ZONES MAINLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BY SUNDAY EVENING, NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE
ZONES. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SE SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SEC.
SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL WATERS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE SC ZONES ANTICIPATED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER
SUNRISE ON MONDAY, INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
SWELL DIRECTION TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
UNTIL THEY PEAK IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR
TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SOUTH WINDS RESULTING
IN A PERIOD AROUND 7 SEC. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SEAS WILL SUBSIDE,
EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND HOLDING
AROUND 2-4 FT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE A MIX
OF LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8 SEC AND
WESTERLY WIND WAVES WITH A PERIOD AROUND 3 SEC, CREATING CONFUSED
SEAS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...IGB/ABW
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/ABW
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