696
FXUS62 KILM 141835
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
235 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCLUDED A KEY MESSAGE FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LONG DURATION
HEAT EVENT AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORY AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 104-109F WITH A FEW HIGHER SPOTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. AS A RESULT, PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER FORECAST
AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY FROM AROUND 11A-8P. THIS
STRONG HEATING IN A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEARBY WEAK
FRONT ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SCATTERED STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL
THAT SIGNIFICANT POTENTIALLY MARGINALIZING CHANCES A BIT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A HEAT INDEX POTENTIALLY 110+ FOR A
LARGER EXTENT. SINCE THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME, THE W- NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD
TO SOME HARD TO TIME IMPULSES BEING DIRECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE STORMS COULD PROVIDE RELIEF FOR SOME AREAS THIS
WEEK, WITH LESSER STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND CONTINUED TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WITH
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THESE ANOMALIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN WINDS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS THERE COULD BE A FEW
ROUNDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A STRAY
SHOWER/T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE AREAL EXTENT WILL BE
MINIMAL AND NO NEED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FOR KLBT/KILM. STORMS COULD RESULT IN A FEW
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY, AND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY - ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THEN
NORTHERN WATERS THEN STRUGGLE TO PUSH SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
SOUTH RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WAFFLE
BACK TO THE NORTH DURING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SWLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE AGAIN TUESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER/ALONG WITH WINDS NEAR ANY CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE REGARDING THE WIND GIVEN THE SUBTLETIES WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP
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