394
FXUS62 KILM 160948
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
548 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO COOLER FORECAST HIGHS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SUNDAY'S FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY WEATHER MAY
CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH LIMITED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS WITH A PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY
WEATHER MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS AT ITS STRONGEST
RIGHT NOW AND WILL WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
FRIDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY, HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR WHAT MAY BE OUR HOTTEST DAY,
SATURDAY, SO FAR IN 2026. ALL THIS UPPER RIDGING IS SUPPORTING
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY
SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN VERY STABLE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 850
MB TEMPS NEAR +16C TODAY AND FRIDAY COULD SURGE TO +17 TO +18C ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS. THIS IS 3 TO 4C ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO VALUES ON SPC'S SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
WEBPAGE AND IS VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JULY. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND NEAR 90 DEGREES TODAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC AND SEABREEZE WINDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 6-12 DEGREES COOLER.
OUR LATEST FORECAST EXPLICITLY FORECASTS FLORENCE'S RECORD TO BE
TIED TODAY AND LUMBERTON'S RECORD TO BE TIED ON SATURDAY. IT WILL
LIKELY BE NO MORE THAN 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM ALL RECORD HIGHS AT
WILMINGTON, LUMBERTON, AND FLORENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
SO NO RECORDS ARE TRULY SAFE.
INLAND FROM THE COOLER COASTLINE, VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN DRIER AIR FROM WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD CRASH THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND
BORDER BELT REGIONS EACH AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 30-35 PERCENT TODAY AND 25-30 PERCENT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GIVEN IT'S NOW BEEN TEN DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AND FUEL/SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE, FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EACH DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
.............THU APR 16...FRI APR 17...SAT APR 18
WILMINGTON......90 IN 2006...89 IN 2006...93 IN 1976
LUMBERTON.......93 IN 1941...91 IN 2006...91 IN 1941
FLORENCE........90 IN 2006...93 IN 2006...93 IN 1981
N MYRTLE BEACH..87 IN 2006...87 IN 1995...89 IN 1976
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH
LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS WITH
A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHICH IMPLIES THE FRONT COULD SLIDE OFFSHORE
BEFORE PEAK HEATING (AND BEFORE POTENTIAL PEAK INSTABILITY) IN THE
AFTERNOON. FROM A QUALITATIVE VIEW, THE 850-700 MB GULF MOISTURE
SURGE ARRIVING COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN WAS
DEPICTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE SHOWER OR T-STORM CHANCES
ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 20-30 PERCENT ON SUNDAY, DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
A CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BRING REFRESHINGLY COOL NIGHTS AND DRY, PLEASANT DAYS.
SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S WITH SOME WIND. BY
MONDAY NIGHT LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ARE EXPECTED, BUT LESS WIND MEANS
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ON PEAT AND ORGANIC SOILS COULD DIP INTO THE
30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS
THE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. MAINLY INTERMITTENT CIRRUS AND A FEW CU WITH POSSIBILITY
OF SMOKE ACROSS NORTHEAST SC FROM A COUPLE OF FIRES IN
WILLIAMSBURG AND MARION COUNTIES. S TO SW WINDS WILL PERSIST
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOG
HEADING INTO SUNRISE EACH MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A
QUIET AND PERSISTENT FORECAST. NEAR THE COAST, WINDS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
INLETS COULD BE CHOPPY. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT FEET WITH A
LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL MIXING IN.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE UP UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-12 KNOTS, BUT THE SEABREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE NEARSHORE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20
KT. SEAS WILL CONSIST OF A MIX OF LOCAL WIND CHOP WITH AN EAST-
SOUTHEAST 9 SECOND SWELL GENERATED BY A LONG EASTERLY FETCH
SOUTH OF THE BERMUDA HIGH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE BEACHES AROUND
NOON ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH
COULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page