864
FXUS62 KILM 260033
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z TAF DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1)BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED
TO CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- 2)BENEFICIAL RAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...WITHIN BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN US, A STREAM OF VORTICITY IMPULSES IS EXPECTED
TO PRECEDE A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. NEAR
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD
GRADUALLY. HI-RES GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST THESE IMPULSES MAY HELP
TO SPUR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND
NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A BAND OF STEADY RAIN
HOLDS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THIS BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WITH PERHAPS
SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (DUE TO
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY) WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP A BIT
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. RAINFALL THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS NEAR THE COAST
AND 0.25-0.50" INLAND, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
0.5-0.75" ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY
THE BAND OF RAIN DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD, SO THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS IN ANY GIVEN SPOT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BENEFICIAL RAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BENEFICIAL IN THAT MOST OF THE AREA IS IN D1/MODERATE DROUGHT
STATUS WITH A SMALL PART OF THE AREA IN D2/SEVERE DROUGHT. A
FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHEARED VORTICITY WILL CAUSE A FLAT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE
BOUNDARY FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE ISN'T IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN
QPF AS THIS OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO, THE WRF APPEARS TO BE THE DRY OUTLIER AND
SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE WETTER NBM/GFS SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT.
BREAKING THE GFS PRECIP INTO IT'S STABLE VS CONVECTIVE
COMPONENTS SHOWS HIGHER, MORE REALISTIC LOOKING AMOUNTS COMING
FROM THE FORMER. AND WITH A CELL MOTION TO THE EAST WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ONLY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD TRAINING ECHOES ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER NUMBERS. AREAL AVERAGE QPF NOW CLOSER TO AN
INCH MOST AREAS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR DOMINATES MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS
LBT/FLO AFTER SUNRISE THU THRU MIDDAY, THEN BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN THU AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR DOMINATE THRU
THU MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING DOMINANT LATER THU
AFTN/EVENING. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU
AFTN INTO THE EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY SSW-SW 10-15 KT G20-25 KT
THIS EVENING, DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE GUSTINESS PICKING BACK UP LATE THU
DAYTIME MORNING AND THRU THE REMAINING FCST PERIOD. THERE IS A
LLJ WITH SW WINDS 40+ KT THAT WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO A LLWS
DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN SOME OF THE LOCAL
TERMINAL TAFS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD, SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA. DOMINATE VFR RETURNS
BY SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NC ZONES TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TEMPORARILY. WINDS
OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FEET WILL
MAKE THE OCEAN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
WAVES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM WITH
A WEAK 1-2 FT ENE SWELL AT 12 SECONDS CONTINUING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT GETS A SQUEEZE FROM AN
APPROACHING FRONT, THOUGH NOT LONG THEREAFTER IT WILL RELAX
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE FRONT EASES
THE GRADIENT. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY LEADING TO A NEAR 180 DEGREE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION.
WAVE FACES WILL STEEPEN FROM THE VEER EVEN AS THE LIGHTER
GRADIENT AND DECAYING SWELL CAUSES OVERALL DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT
TO ABATE. NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL TO OUR
NORTH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/ABW
DISCUSSION...MBB/ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/ABW
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