405
FXUS62 KILM 120643
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
243 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS
INCREASING. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND IS INCREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
OVER 100 DEGREES EXPECTED EACH DAY.
2) LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES EXPECTED EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...MID-LEVEL RIDGE PEAKS IN STRENGTH TODAY,
BRINGING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THU. BOTH 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS
INDICATE AN AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT ONLY A FEW AREAS TO REALIZE 100F, BUT WIDESPREAD
98-99F IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL EVEN EXTEND TO
THE COAST TODAY WITH FLOW AT 925MB KEEPING THE SEA BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR, WHICH WILL LIMIT DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER, THE EXTREME NATURE OF
THE HEAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND HAVE NO PLANS TO ALTER THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN SAT AND MORE SO SUN,
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL DROP A BIT FROM
FRI, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WOULD MORE THAN OFFSET THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THUS ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WILL ALSO PLAY A
ROLE IN THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...RIDGING ALOFT PEAKS TODAY, LEADING TO A
HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING 2" AND SBCAPE PUSHING 3000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL REALLY WORK AGAINST DEEP CONVECTION. SIMILAR TO THU
IT WILL TAKE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, EITHER WITH THE SEA
BREEZE OR THE PIEDMONT TROUGH, TO GET DEEPER CONVECTION GOING. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
LATE EVENING AS WANING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MOVES
INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
ON SAT A SUBTLE WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE 5H RIDGE WITH 2 WEAK 5H
HIGH CENTERS DEVELOPING LATER SAT INTO SUN. ONE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, THE MAIN
FACTOR IN GREATER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE COLD FRONT COME TOGETHER. HOWEVER, DRY AIR REMAINS AN
ISSUE AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON STORM COVERAGE AND DURATION. FRONT
DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SUN WITH RAIN CHANCES TRENDING LOWER. RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE 5H PATTERN
SHIFTING FROM RIDGING TO BROAD TROUGHING. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT AND A REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AT THE
COAST OR INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.
THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP COVERAGE VERY LIMITED AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A STORM AFFECTING ANY TERMINAL IS LOW. NO PLANS TO
CARRY ANY RESTRICTIONS OR MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER, IF
A STORM WERE TO AFFECT A TERMINAL SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH 10-15 KT AT ALL TERMINALS ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS,
MORE FREQUENT ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE VFR.
MARINE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT WITHIN 20 NM AND A SOLID 20 WITH
25 KT AT TIMES BEYOND 20 NM. THE ONLY DAY IN THE FORECAST WHERE THIS
WILL NOT BE THE CASE IS SAT. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN THE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT INSIDE 20 NM
AND 10-15 KT BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS 2-3 FT THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS DROP CLOSER TO 2 FT SAT AND
SAT NIGHT WITH THE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS RETURN ON SUN,
RAMPING UP SEAS WITH 2-4 FT IN THE MORNING BECOMING WIDESPREAD 4 FT
FOR THE AFTERNOON, A PATTERN THAT WILL REPEAT MON AND TUE. NEAR 20
NM AND BEYOND 5 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE SUN AND LINGER
INTO SUN NIGHT.
CLIMATE
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY REACH RECORD
HIGHS. THE HOTTEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TODAY, BUT SUNDAY MAY
REACH SIMILAR LEVELS. THE HIGH TEMP RECORDS FOR EACH CLIMATE
SITE ARE PROVIDED BELOW FOR THESE DATES (JUNE 12 AND 14).
LOCATION JUN 12 JUN 14
WILMINGTON, NC: 98 (1920) 99 (1958)
LUMBERTON, NC: 103 (1911) 101 (2015)
N. MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 96 (2016) 98 (2010)
FLORENCE, SC: 97 (2022) 102 (1958)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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