770  
FXUS62 KILM 090105  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
905 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS  
EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH BEST STORM  
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR  
THE WEEKEND, BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A  
FIXTURE.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH LATE ATLANTIC OCEAN NOCTURNAL  
SHRA/TSRA SKIRTING PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST TOWARD AND  
AROUND DAYBREAK WED. LOW LEVEL S-SSW JET SHOULD KEEP WINDS  
FRISKY ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD  
FOG AT BAY INLAND. SHELTERED LOCATIONS INLAND, ESPECIALLY  
AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL, MAY OBSERVE PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS FOR  
THE NIGHT MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS LOCATIONS HAVING  
RECEIVED RAINFALL, THOSE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE A RISE IN TEMPS  
THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BACK PADDLE TO THE PRESCRIBED  
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE  
NEED FOR A HEAT ADV ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT  
UPDATE.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL  
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH  
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS <20 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE  
TROPOSPHERE UP UNTIL JET STREAM LEVEL (>30 KFT). TYPICAL  
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE LEVELS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2", WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STEADY  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER  
ATMOSPHERE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA  
BREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INLAND FROM COAST AROUND/WEST OF  
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST COURTESY OF THE  
RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR  
REGION, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY  
DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THIS LOSS  
OF HEATING, LEAVING ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN  
THE MID-UPPER 70S AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE RIDGE  
AXIS HOLDING IN PLACE, THOUGH, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AT  
LEAST A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED, ESPECIALLY  
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THUS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/WEST OF I-95, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THESE STORMS SHOULD LARGELY DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT  
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL  
MEAN SLOW-MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS PASS OVER THE SAME  
AREA OR BECOME STATIONARY AS RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE  
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION, AN ISOLATED SEVERE  
STORM MAY OCCUR AND PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW.  
 
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD END UP A LITTLE LOWER TOMORROW THAN TODAY  
DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND  
THESE LOWER TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST AREAS FROM REACHING HEAT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F, DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER  
70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND OR INCREASE AS THE USUAL  
FACTORS...SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING...THE PIEDMONT/INLAND  
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMBINE IN TANDEM WITH  
SIGNIFICANT PW VALUES IN PLACE. THESE FACTORS WARRANT LIKELY TO  
EVEN CATEGORICAL POPS AT TIMES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS TRAILING OFF OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
STEADY STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN  
THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER FROM A  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STANDPOINT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO  
BUILD IN MORE AT TIMES. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE THE LEAST  
CONVECTION WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN LATE IN  
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS  
ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA HEAT RELATED  
HEADLINES...PROBABLY MORE CONFINED TO ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR  
TO BE FAIR GAME EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
LAST OF THE CONVECTION DONE FOR THE EVENING. WILL DEAL WITH SOME  
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS REMAINDER OF THE EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND MOIST COLUMN WITH  
PWS REMAINING 2+ INCHES, APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES DURING DAYLIGHT  
WED. BOTH LBT AND FLO TERMINAL AREAS RECEIVED SOME RAIN AND  
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH  
FOR ILM FOR LATE PRE-DAWN HRS TO AROUND WED DAYBREAK TO ACCOUNT  
FOR ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF PCPN. IN ADDITION, THE COASTAL  
TERMINALS MAY OBSERVE INTERMITTENT SCT POSSIBLY BKN STRATUS  
FRACTUS IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SLATED FOR WED WITH PROB30 GROUPS  
IDENTIFYING THE BEST TIMES FOR EACH TERMINAL. OVERNIGHT LLJ  
S-SSW DIRECTION TO KEEP WINDS 5 TO 9 KT AT THE COASTAL  
TERMINALS, AROUND 4 KT INLAND TERMINALS. BOTH LBT AND FLO  
TERMINAL AREAS RECEIVED SOME RAIN AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY  
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRINGS WINDS S  
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS REACHING 20 KT NOT OUT OF  
THE QUESTION. INLAND TERMINALS, WILL SEE S-SSW WINDS CLIMB TO  
AROUND 10 KT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE EACH DAY DUE TO AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
STEADY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND BROAD  
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WAVES OF  
2-3 FT WILL STEM FROM A COMBINATION OF 2-3 FT WIND WAVES AND  
1-2 FT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SEC.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...  
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN FULL FORCE FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF SOME SEA BREEZE ACCELERATIONS  
AND DISTORTED WIND FIELDS FROM CONVECTION SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  
WINDS OF 10- 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS  
WINDS COULD BE EVEN LIGHTER OR CONCENTRATED MORE TOWARD THE  
LOWER END OF THE RANGE NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4  
FEET.  
 
 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
UPDATE...DCH  
NEAR TERM...ABW  
SHORT TERM...SHK  
LONG TERM...SHK  
AVIATION...DCH  
MARINE...SHK/ABW  
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