872  
FXUS62 KILM 180136  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
836 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DAMP CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT  
LIFTS TO THE NORTH, ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF FOG AND MIST.  
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY, AND  
MEANDER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,  
LEADING TO PERIODS OF LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN IN THE WEEK  
AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING A DRY DAY THIS TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 836 PM SUNDAY...FORECAST RAIN CHANCES AND MOSAIC RADAR  
TRENDS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNC PRESENTLY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE  
NEEDED. EXPECT ATYPICAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, RISING THROUGH  
THE NIGHT, 10 DEG F OR BETTER IN SPOTS, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN  
SC TO CENTRAL GA THIS MID-EVENING, MIGRATING NORTH. ALTHOUGH  
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND HIGHER OVERNIGHT, OVERALL AMOUNTS IN THE  
RAIN BUCKETS TO REMAIN MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG TO PLAGUE INLAND  
SITES, AND ALSO THE COAST INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS ASCENDING  
DEWPOINTS TRAVERSE COOLER INSHORE WATERS.  
 
AS OF 609 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED,  
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BRING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES AS  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG INCREASES INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS  
DEWPOINTS RISE IN AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CHILLED SSTS.  
 
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS A VERY SHALLOW RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
CAROLINAS. THE RIDGE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE THIS EVENING ALLOWING A  
WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL  
OCCUR EARLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT. BEST RAINFALL CHANCES  
WILL OCCUR FARTHER INLAND AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED, GENERALLY LESS  
THAN A TENTH INCH MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BEFORE SOME  
CLEARING OCCURS AND ISENTROPIC GLIDE BECOMES NEUTRAL. A COLD FRONT  
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COLD AIR IS LACKING  
WITH FROPA AND HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS THINKING  
IS IN LINE WITH THE FAVORED WARMER ECE/MAV HIGHS FOR MONDAY. RIDGE  
BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP  
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TO THE LOWER 40S AT  
THE COAST AND SOUTHERN ZONES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE 1ST HALF OF TUE WILL REMAIN  
PRIMARILY DRY BUT UNFORTUNATELY AN INCREASE IN OVERRUNNING TYPE  
CLOUDINESS AS A WEDGE SETS UP. RIDGING WITH COLD AIR FUNNELING  
SOUTHWARD WILL DOMINATE TUE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS  
FOR DAYTIME TUE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE  
ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND. BY AND DURING WED, THE SOURCE OF THE  
COLD AIR, IE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF NEW  
ENGLAND. THUS EXPECT A PARTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THIS WEDGE WHICH  
WILL ALLOW THE INVERTED SFC TROF OR COASTAL FRONT, TO PUSH  
ONSHORE AND INLAND. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TEMP FCST  
BUST WILL BE AT IT'S HIEST. HOW FAR INLAND THIS TROF/FRONT GOES  
WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIP WITH STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN NORTH  
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE MORE CONVECTIVE IE. SHOWERY IN NATURE,  
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. PCPN AMOUNTS FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD  
WILL GENERALLY RUN ONE TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE  
COAST AND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH INLAND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL  
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING  
SW TO NE FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST TO OFF THE MID-  
ATLANTIC STATES COAST. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALSO  
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH  
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE  
WESTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO KEEPS AN OPEN MOISTURE FEED FROM THE  
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION, WEAK VORTS ROTATING  
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROF, WILL  
TRACK NE AND PASS AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH INLAND FROM THE ILM CWA  
FROM ANY DIRECT INFLUENCE. NEVERTHELESS, ISENTROPIC LIFT IE.  
OVERRUNNING, WILL DOMINATE THE PRODUCTION OF CLOUDS AND  
STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN FOR THE ILM CWA. MODELS INDICATE THU WILL  
BE THE "DRIEST" DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AND IN ADDITION,  
THE MILDEST OR WARMEST, DEPENDING IF TEMPS MAKE IT INTO THE 60S  
OR 70S. MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THIS LONGWAVE  
PATTERN THAT COULD PUT AN END TO THIS WET REGIME. BUT GIVEN 7  
DAYS OUT, WILL NOT JUMP ON THE BAND WAGON AS OF YET BUT WILL  
BACK DOWN ON THE POPS AND DECREASE THE CLOUDINESS SOME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0Z....SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH IFR/LIFR AND  
LESS THAN 5MI VSBY INLAND AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST. LOOK FOR  
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BEFORE  
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 18Z AND LIFTS THE LOW  
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. AT INLAND TERMINALS, LOOK FOR IFR CEILINGS TO  
PERSIST THOUGH TOMORROW MORNING, POSSIBLY LIFR AT TIMES, WITH MVFR  
FOG LIKELY EARLY MORNING. IFR SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR IN THE MORNING  
BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 17Z. LLWS ALSO BRIEFLY FORECASTED  
BETWEEN 6 AND 8Z AT FLO AND LBT WHEN A 40KT JET DEVELOPS AROUND 2 KFT.  
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER. CURRENTLY MVFR, ON THE  
BORDER OF IFR. MOST LIKELY WILL BE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE COASTAL  
SITES OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE TWO CATEGORIES. HAVE FORECASTED A DECLINE  
INTO IFR OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, AND  
THEN IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR IN THE MORNING, BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR  
AROUND 18/19Z. POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT THE  
MYRTLES, AND SO HAVE INCLUDED DECREASED VISIBILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THIS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INLAND OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN  
LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH AT FLO AND LBT.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT  
 
AS OF 609 PM SUNDAY...ESE WAVES EVERY 10-11 SECONDS AND  
SHORTER PERIOD E WIND-SEAS PREVAILED, MIXED WITH S-SSE WAVES  
EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT, MIST  
AND FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT, THROUGH DAYBREAK  
MONDAY. NO TSTMS, BUT DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL  
KEEP MARINE CONDITIONS DAMP. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  
 
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE  
CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AS THE OLD FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE FLOW  
WILL VEER AROUND FROM THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO  
THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL,  
LIKELY TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AS  
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK INITIALLY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW  
IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER A SURGE WILL INCREASE  
NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN  
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. SEAS  
OF 3-5 FT ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE  
SUBSIDING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE  
AGAIN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A WEDGE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS  
THE CAROLINAS WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF OR COASTAL FRONT TAKING  
SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. THE SFC PG  
WILL TIGHTEN TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS WILL SURPASS SCA  
THRESHOLDS AND IN TURN, SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AND  
ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WAVES WILL  
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS WITH 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS COMMON. EAST  
OF THE COASTAL TROF, SE TO S WINDS WILL BE BUSY AND ADD TO THE  
MIX ESPECIALLY WHEN THE COASTAL TROF/FRONT GETS PULLED ONSHORE  
BY WED. THE SFC PG WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIGHTENED WITH WINDS  
15 TO 25 KT WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE  
COASTAL FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FINALLY ABATE AND SUBSIDE-  
SOME THU INTO FRI DUE TO A BRIEF LULL IN THE PASSAGE OF MID-  
LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DROP BACK  
SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY AND COULD RESULT IN WINDS BACKING TO THE  
NE WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...8  
NEAR TERM...SRP/COLBY  
SHORT TERM...DCH  
LONG TERM...DCH  
AVIATION...VAO  
MARINE...DCH/SRP/MJC  
 
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