848
FXUS62 KILM 272352
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE COLD AIR AROUND THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING SOME GOOD RAIN TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, THE HIGH BEING
DRIVEN BY A LARGE 994 LOW IN EASTERN CANADA. BY DAYBREAK 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW 0C WHICH IN A RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
CAN SUPPORT SOME PRETTY NOTABLE COLD. WE DO MAINTAIN A FEW KNOTS OF
WIND HOWEVER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THE CLASSICAL
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION OF A RAD NIGHT. CONTINUED CAA TOMORROW WILL
BRING HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO HIT 50, A SOLID CATEGORY BELOW OUR
COLDEST CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ITS TEETH DEEPER INTO APPALACHIA FRIDAY NIGHT.
NO DOUBT THAT FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD, WITH LOWS EASILY DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 20S FOR MOST, SANS UPPER 20S AT THE COAST.
BIGGEST QUESTION HAS BEEN THE DEBATE ON RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THAT
NIGHT, AND HOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES. I ACTUALLY
BROUGHT DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME
SPOTS, AS THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED TEMPERATURES WELL LATELY,
AND IS SNIFFING OUT A COOLING TREND THAN WHAT THE NBM SUITE
SUGGESTS (NOT THAT THIS IS SURPRISING REALLY). EVEN THOUGH SOME
APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRADITIONAL COOL
SPOTS IN PARTS OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES, THIS STILL DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TERRITORY.
ARCTIC AIR STILL COMMANDS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. A PERFECT DAY FOR HOT CHOCOLATE WHEN YOU'RE
OUT CHRISTMAS TREE SHOPPING.
THE VERY SLIGHTEST HINTS OF ONSHORE FLOW START TO RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. ULTIMATELY, THE FLOW ISN'T DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES JUST YET. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST, WHILE THEY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEEPENS SUNDAY UNDERNEATH A JET STREAK THAT
PUSHES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. SUDDENLY,
TEMPERATURES SPIKE ABOVE NORMAL JUST AS QUICKLY AS THEY SUNK BELOW
NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WHICH IS DUE
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA, WHICH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 40S. SAID FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE, LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK.
AS IS TRADITION, MULTIPLE CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE FORM
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT. CONVENIENTLY, THIS COINCIDES WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT DEEPENS ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DEEP JET
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
HELP THE DYNAMICS OF THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A
STOUT LOW FORMING IN THE GULF AND DRAGGING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. EVEN FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT,
THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER SYSTEMS I'VE SEEN RECENTLY, AND COULD
HOPEFULLY GIVE US SOME GOOD RAIN. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS QUITE MESSY
CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL MEAN A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ETC. IF IT TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE COAST, THAT WOULD MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE
RAINFALL. IF IT TRACKS MORE OVER INLAND GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS,
THAT WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS (EXCEPT THE
PEE DEE REGION, PERHAPS). ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE THAT SURPRISED ME
A BIT IS THAT EVEN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF SBCAPE ONLY WENT UP TO 250
J/KG. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN OTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST, I
FIGURED SOME OF THE OTHER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WOULD BE
QUITE VOLATILE, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
READ: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. CHECK BACK LATER.
AFTER WHATEVER TUESDAY ENDS UP BEING, LOOK FOR A DRYING TREND AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY. NW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...BRIEF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BY TUESDAY DUE TO A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING SHRA TO
THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THERE WON'T BE MUCH CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED BY NOT
ONLY THE LARGE HIGH TO THE NW BUT ALSO A SLOW MOVING LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA. SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY AS THEY WILL BE COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF
THE WIND CHOP. THE OFFSHORE DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST OF THESE
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST ZONES AND NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEAS
GENERALLY AT 1-3 FT. ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS IN SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE ON THE RISE, WITH WINDS SETTLING IN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 15+ KTS BY MONDAY, AND SEAS ESCALATING TO 2-4 FT.
FINALLY, A STOUT LOW EXITS THE GULF AND MOVES THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY (LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW). EITHER WAY, WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE SSW BY TUESDAY,
WITH WINDS AND SEAS EASILY HITTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...IGB
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