561  
FXUS62 KILM 071927  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
327 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF BERMUDA WILL BRING SEASONABLE HEAT AND  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE  
THURSDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
GOOD COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE  
GETTING A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE TUTT LOW MOVING ACROSS. LOOKING  
EASTWARD AND USING THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE, INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY. THE COVERAGE  
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HIGHER WITH LAND BASED INSTABILITY. THE ONLY  
CONCERN IS A GOOD SMATTERING OF THE MOISTURE MAY BE SHIFTING  
SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON THEN MORE  
CONFINED TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY.  
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN WARM  
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. COASTAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FROM LAND BREEZE  
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SEA  
BREEZE ON TUESDAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND  
HUMID. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND, UPPER 70S ALONG THE  
COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY  
OR FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST. TYPICALLY, THESE FRONTS ARE SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED AND  
SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DESPITE  
THE UNCERTAINTY, SOME PORTION OF THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME  
FRAME SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY  
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND STORM CHANCES IN THE  
VICINITY. VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS AN ELONGATED BERMUDA  
SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER SOUTHERN SC  
AND GA COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  
 
POTENTIAL FOR A COOLDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE  
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF  
THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, IT SHOULD MAKE FOR  
A QUIET WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
CONVECTION SEEMS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS  
LATE SUMMER INSTABILITY LADEN ENVIRONMENT WARRANTS VCTS EVEN IN  
THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. IT APPEARS SOME MID LEVEL PVA IS  
PLAYING A ROLE IN THE INCREASE AS WELL. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS  
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. IT APPEARS JUST A COUPLE KNOTS  
OF WIND HAS HELD SIGNIFICANT FOG AT BAY INLAND THE PAST COUPLE  
OF DAYS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE MONDAY MORNING.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN DURING  
MONDAY AROUND ANY CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF  
STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF  
AUGUST ACROSS THIS PART OF THE CAROLINAS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THROUGH TONIGHT... SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND TEN KNOTS WILL  
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MORE  
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEYOND THIS AS THE INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS  
MORE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT AROUND TWO  
FEET WITH PERHAPS A VERY INCREMENTAL INCREASE LATE IN THE  
PERIOD.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN  
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. BRIEF  
INCREASES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE AND AHEAD OF  
A MID WEEK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT  
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND BRING A BETTER  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS  
BECOME NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE  
FRONT. OVERALL, EXPECT WIND WAVES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 3  
FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, INCREASING DURING THE MID WEEK  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...SHK  
SHORT TERM...21  
LONG TERM...21  
AVIATION...SHK  
MARINE...SHK/21  
 
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