922  
FXUS62 KILM 090734  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
334 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL  
CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTH  
CAROLINA SATURDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND  
LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE  
AREA FROM THE GULF COAST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT HAVE CONGREGATED INTO A  
DISORGANIZED MASS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF  
THESE STORMS WILL SUSTAIN A SMALL HAIL THREAT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WEAK  
INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AS THIS MASS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH  
SUNRISE. REMNANT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ALL THAT REMAIN AS THE  
ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF I-95  
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND REACH THE COAST DURING THE MID MORNING.  
CONFIDENCE IN MEANINGFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY SURVIVING TO THE COASTAL  
COMMUNITIES OF SOUTHEASTERN NC IS LOW WITH A BETTER CHANCE SOUTHWARD  
AND INLAND. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH  
A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE TN-KY  
BORDER THROUGH NORTHERN VA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND  
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL FORM  
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DROP INTO THE MID  
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT, WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S TODAY.  
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS SURROUNDING CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS MORNING. THE  
BULK OF MODELS SUGGEST THAT SUNSHINE MAY BE HARD TO FIND AND KEEP  
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM  
TEMPERATURES EXISTS TODAY.  
 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO  
PRODUCE THE MAIN SOURCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED  
PREVIOUSLY, COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE PREVIOUS EXISTENCE OF  
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. REGARDLESS, A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE A  
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS DURING  
THE LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL COMPETE WITH  
SURFACE LIFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES, BUT HREF MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT  
THAT THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH STRAY  
STORMS INLAND. THIS DOES HAVE SOME MERIT AS THE AIR MASS IN THE WEST  
AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS HAS BEEN WORKED THROUGH ITS AVAILABLE ENERGY  
AND DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY PRODUCES SINKING AIR IN THE  
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
OCCLUDED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL HAVE PUSHED A COLD FRONT  
OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR(WELL COMPARED TO THE  
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS) SPREADING IN THE FROM THE NORTH. MAY BE SOME  
WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING 5H TROUGH SAT, BUT THE  
STABLE LOW LEVELS AND COOLER AIR MASS WORK TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE  
REGION DRY SAT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE FRONT,  
BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN-MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN  
CHANCES IN THESE AREAS REMAIN IN QUESTION AND WILL BE DETERMINED BY  
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SAGES. COLD ADVECTION ENDS DURING THE  
MORNING, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW  
70S, AT BEST.  
 
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH  
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND COASTAL TROUGH TAKING SHAPE.  
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE, BUT JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER (WHICH IS PRETTY SHALLOW) THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF RH >90%.  
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SAT NIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT STARTS TO  
RETURN BACK NORTH ON SUN AS A COUPLE SURFACE WAVES MOVE NORTHEAST  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE, WEAK  
DYNAMICS WITH THE WAVES AND THE OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALL  
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE WEAK  
NATURE OF THE FORCING MAY LIMIT INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN OR EMBEDDED  
SHOWERS, LIMITING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE  
SIMILAR TO SAT. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
STACKED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST MON MORNING SLOWLY LIFTS  
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY TUE AND THEN ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC OR THE SOUTHEAST STATES WED INTO THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN  
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH  
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE  
WATER HOVERS AROUND 150% OF NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, EXCEEDING  
175% OF NORMAL MON INTO TUE. PLENTY OF POSITIVES THAT SUGGEST THE  
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD.  
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT(BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND  
SPEED), DECREASING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB, DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT(100 KT  
JET AT 200 MB LATE MON AND MON NIGHT), AND OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE  
EJECTING FROM THE 5H LOW. THE ENVIRONMENT ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL  
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PWAT APPROACHING 2" AT  
TIMES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MON INTO TUE WHEN DEEP  
MOISTURE IS AT ITS HIGHEST.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM BEING AN ACTIVE PERIOD WEATHERWISE IS  
HIGH, BUT THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING REMAIN ELUSIVE, GIVEN THE  
PRESENCE OF A CUTOFF LOW WHICH ALWAYS GIVE THE GUIDANCE FITS. THERE  
HAS BEEN A SLOWING TREND WITH THE 5H LOW AS WELL AS A SLIGHT  
SOUTHERLY SHIFT TO ITS MOVEMENT. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAD DRIER AIR  
MOVING IN LATER WED AND THU, BUT A SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS  
WOULD LEAD TO MOISTURE LINGERING LONGER. THE RESULT WOULD BE HIGHS  
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THU INSTEAD OF A RETURN TO NORMAL WED OR THU.  
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL MERGE INTO A LARGER MASS  
AND PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS WILL REACH INLAND  
TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR DUE TO  
VIS. AS THE LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINING IS CONSUMED BY  
EXISTING STORMS, RAIN RATES WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD  
OF MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH A FEW CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.  
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND MID LEVEL  
ENERGY ENCOURAGES LIFT ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY. INLAND AREAS SHOULD  
REMAIN VFR TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST.  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS  
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... CONFIDENCE IS LOW SURROUNDING A STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE COAST  
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND. UNSETTLED  
WEATHER RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THROUGH TONIGHT...  
 
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THIS  
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST. AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS  
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PUSH THIS  
CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND LIGHTNING (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS  
AND ELEVATED SEAS) WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE  
COASTLINE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES  
OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN N AND NE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE INITIAL NE SURGE.  
SEAS BETWEEN 2-3 FEET TODAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT TO 3-5 FEET.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...  
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AND LINGERS THERE INTO MON  
BEFORE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND THE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE  
WATERS, SETTING UP EASTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG  
THE GULF COAST AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH TIGHTEN THE  
GRADIENT MON AND TUE, INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHEST SEAS WILL  
BE LATER MON AND TUE, ONCE THE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.  
NORTHEAST SURGE SAT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4 FT, BUT 4-6 FT  
WILL BE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE. AN EASTERLY SWELL WILL BE  
THE DOMINANT WAVE WITH AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE LIKELY TO  
DEVELOP SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...21  
SHORT TERM...III  
LONG TERM...III  
AVIATION...21  
MARINE...III/21  
 
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