523
FXUS62 KILM 062337
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS QUICKLY TRANSLATING WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW IS RAPIDLY
TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
AND KEEP LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S INLAND, LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD PRODUCE A
LARGE CONTRAST BETWEEN COASTAL LOCATIONS AND RURAL AREAS INLAND
THAT ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING. COOLING DURING
THE FIST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH (ALSO IN LIGHTER BL WINDS) IS LIKELY
TO EXPAND THIS DISCREPANCY. I BLENDED NBM WITH SOME OF THE
WARMER HI-RES GUIDANCE AND GFS TO CAPTURE THE WARMER TEMPS ALONG
THE COAST AND TO THE SOUTH.
WINDS TURN SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND SEA BREEZE. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS COULD PRODUCE A STRAY
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
BE UNLIKELY DUE TO THE POOR DEPTH OF MOISTURE. SPRINKLES ARE
MORE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE
SHORT TERM WITH DECENT WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 60F SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMP SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA.
CURRENTLY CARRYING A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. POPS
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE, AS WAA INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY AND COULD SEE HIGHS REACH 80F IN
THE AFTERNOON. A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING DOWN INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO INTENSIFYING
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND AN ATTENDING COLD
FRONT TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. GIVEN WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S), COULD
HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR MAXIMA TRAILS BEHIND THE FRONT, AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DOESN'T MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL LATE
MONDAY, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR LATE SUNDAY TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. 850F TEMPS DROP FROM 13C SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -9C BY
MONDAY EVENING AND PWATS DROP TO LESS THAN 0.2". THE HIGH TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AT MIDNIGHT AT THE START OF
THE DAY, WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO LOW TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE STRUGGLING INTO THE 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG PVA
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY, BUT WITH VIRTUALLY NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WE MIGHT NOT EVEN SEE ANY CLOUDS WITH IT.
TUESDAY MORNING REMAINS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES (28-31F). WITH
STRONG WSW WINDS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPS TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO A BIT OF A WIND CHILL TUESDAY MORNING, WITH APPARENT
TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILM/FREEZE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT AVERAGE FIRST FALL FREEZES AND OTHER
STATISTICS FOR NE SC AND SE NC.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE FORECASTED NEAR 50F, WHICH IS JUST A
BIT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL LOW TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR. CAA STARTS
TO WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS STILL IN THE
30S, BUT NOT AS COLD AS MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT, LEADING TO LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
LOCALLY WITH JUST A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES VERY LOW. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A WETTING RAIN NOR ANY AVIATION
IMPACTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE A GRADUAL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE NEARSHORE WATERS NEAR A DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS 2-4 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WAA WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 KTS BEFORE
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SEAS 2-3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH MIX OF SW WIND WAVE AND SE SWELL, INCREASING TO 3-5 FT BY
LATE SUNDAY DUE TO BUILDING WIND WAVE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY,
POTENTIALLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT. SEAS LINGER AROUND 3-4 FT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...VAO/21
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