831
FXUS62 KILM 121843
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
243 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
REMAINS VERY LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ASIDE FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN DECREASED IN THIS UPDATE WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
LACKING. ANY RAIN WILL BE OVER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
DRY W/NW FLOW IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPR 70S MOST AREAS. A WARMING TREND THEN ENSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING UPR-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LATEST FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORTUNATELY, MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK SO MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULDN'T BE MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. BKN TO SCT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SOME CLOUD DECKS DOWN TO 8000 FT
POSSIBLE. SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE ENE UP TO 18-19 KTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY
SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT DRIER
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FOG
CONCERNS OUT OF THE CONVERSATION. WINDS VEER MORE THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH
THE SEABREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FRESH BREEZE OUT OF THE ENE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL COME DOWN TO A MODERATE BREEZE TONIGHT, GRADUALLY BECOMING
A GENTLE BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS FLUCTUATE
VERY LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE E AND ESE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. SEAS AT 3-5 FT OUT 20 NM WILL COME DOWN
TOWARDS 2-4 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE 6-8 FT SEAS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM WILL COME DOWN TOWARDS 4-5
FT. OUTSIDE OF WIND WAVES, LOOK FOR A SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL AT 10-11 SECONDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS MUCH OF THE TIME, ASIDE
FROM A COLD FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS ONLY FOLLOWED BY WEAK
CAA AND WINDS FAR SHORT OF CRITERIA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM TYPICAL AFTN SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT, EXPECT WINDS
UP TO ONLY 10-15 KT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 2-3 FT SEAS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page