672
FXUS62 KILM 251036
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE. A SECOND SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE ATM COLUMN BETWEEN THE SFC AND 550 MB WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY
THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. ABOVE 550MB, WILL SEE POCKETS OF MOISTURE
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS IN THE
20K TO 30K FOOT LEVEL. OVERALL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SAT NIGHT. STRATOCU OVER THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE
WATERS AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATL WATERS,
POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL NNE-NE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY TO THE ENE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COASTAL CWA. SOME DECENT CAA HAS WORKED ITS
WAY ACROSS THE FA THE PAST 24 HRS AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY
TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TONIGHTS LOWS SIMILAR TO FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING ACTIVE AT THE SFC AND WITHIN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO NEGATE ANY DECENT RAD COOLING POSSIBILITIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS IN UPPER 60S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS OVERHEAD.
CAD WEDGE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH NEAR
NORMAL LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. A COASTAL LOW WILL
FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE, THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW WILL GET.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING. CURRENT QPF THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT IS 0.5- 1", WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW INCHES SO CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS, RAIN, AND CAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY AROUND 60F, WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
AROUND 50F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPS, WITH CAD IN PLACE
THROUGH MID- WEEK. A SECOND, STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE WEEK, THOUGH STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AS A RESULT,
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY THE DRIEST
PART OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY,
WITH GUSTS 20+ MPH MOST DAYS, DUE TO TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGHOUT THE 24HR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN
FROM SE CANADA LATER TONIGHT AS THE 1030+ MB HIGH'S CENTER
SLIDES EAST. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A TIGHTENED GRADIENT THRU THE
PERIOD, NE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT DURING DAYLIGHT SAT
THAN DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 6 KT THIS EVENING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. THIN TO OCCASIONALLY OPAQUE CIRRUS TO PERIODICALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE FA WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY COLUMN EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SFC AND ROUGHLY 550MB, NO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOESN'T VEER ENOUGH FOR ANY OF THE
OFFSHORE STRATOCU TO MOVE ONSHORE. NO FOG OR LOW STRATUS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN SUN MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TO DOMINATE THRU SUN EVENING. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBILITIES INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT THRU WED AS
LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES UNDER
BREEZY NE WINDS.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THAN SE CANADA BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA,
LOOK FOR NE WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TO 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT DURING THIS PERIOD. BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD, WINDS AND RESULTING SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA
THRESHOLDS, MAINLY SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET. SEAS WILL ALSO BE
STEADILY INCREASING IN HEIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD, 1 TO 3 FT
THIS MORNING, BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
NE WINDWAVES AT 6 SECONDS OR LESS PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH INLAND, NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST SC COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING,
EXTENDING TO SOUTHEAST NC WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD, THOUGH HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO
THE COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS, THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE COASTAL
LOW WILL PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH GALE- FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/VAO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page