429
FXUS62 KILM 292207
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A FEW FLOOD
ADVISORIES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME THE SLOW MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH
SOME MERGERS AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
MID-UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT AWAY OVER THE NEXT DAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD IN ITS PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARBY OR OVER THE AREA AND KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS, WHERE
GREATER SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING. ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2"/HR CAN EASILY OCCUR IN A SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM.
THUS, HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS END UP BACKBUILDING OVER THE
SAME AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK, EXPECT WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING 105F OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS (WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100F
OR HIGHER) IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. KFLO HAS THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS KFLO/KLBT
HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OFFSHORE NOCTURNAL STORMS MAY APPROACH
THE COASTAL TERMINALS GENERALLY AFTER 08-10Z. KILM HAS THE
BETTER CHANCES AT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS RESULTING FROM THESE
SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO KCRE/KMYR.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIR-MASS IN PLACE DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
IN PLACE AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS INLAND OF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THIS FRONT WASHES OUT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, A
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1-2 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-3 FT
IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY EAST-SOUTHEAST 8-9 SEC
SWELLS. WIND WAVES OF 1 FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE IN TANDEM WITH
THE DAYTIME INCREASE IN WINDS. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 11-12
SEC SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SEAS INTO THE 2-3 FT RANGE IN THE 0-20NMI
ZONES AND 3-4 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY MATCHING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH
DAY'S HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY IN LINE WITH 2011 AND
2010 AS OF THE OFFICIAL DAILY CLIMATE REPORT FROM AUGUST 28.
#1 2026 81.8 DEG F (WITH THREE DAYS LEFT)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/ABW
DISCUSSION...RGZ/ABW
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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