119
FXUS62 KILM 131016
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
REMAINS VERY LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WON'T BE ABLE TO MUSTER
MUCH PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY W/NW FLOW WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. THE
ONLY MINOR CONCERN THU/FRI WILL BE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIPPING
TO AROUND 30% (POSSIBLY LOWER NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS) EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN APPRECIABLE FIRE DANGER. A WARMING TREND THEN ENSUES
OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DECENT CONFIDENCE
IN INCREASING UPPER- LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL (NEAR 90 TO LOWER
90S) ACROSS INLAND AREAS. FORTUNATELY, MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAX HEAT INDICES MUCH HIGHER THAN
THE AIR TEMPS, ALTHOUGH THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD STILL USE
CAUTION AS THE NWS HEATRISK IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY (LEVEL 3
OF 5) EACH DAY. REFER TO OUR LOCAL HEAT WEBPAGE FOR MORE
HEAT FORECAST/SAFETY INFO...WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. ANY STRAY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT LOOK TOO LIGHT
TO IMPACT TERMINALS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
06-12Z BUT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AHEAD OF A FRONT TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SE WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE WITH SW FLOW BECOMING NW 06-12Z WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 10KT EASTERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SW LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BECOMING OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH. SEAS 3-4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS
STAYING WELL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY PREVAILS RESULTING IN WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO STAY MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM
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