784
FXUS62 KILM 251028
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. WINDS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH THE FRIDAY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TODAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER.
2) NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THUNDER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TODAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER.
MILDER ATLANTIC AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
SOURCE REGION FOR OUR AIRMASS BEGINS TO PICK UP MORE MARITIME
INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BOTH RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THE BEACHES TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES INLAND. THIS IS BACK TO ALMOST NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD HELP
ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANOTHER POINT THAT MAY BECOME
IMPORTANT FOR LATE TONIGHT IS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
WE MAY SEE AREAS OF GROUND FOG DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST,
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THUNDER
CHANCES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE REGION AS HIGHS REACH WELL
INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SEABREEZE WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COAST, BRINGING MORE UNCERTAINTY
TO THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST BASED ON WHEN IT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE STRONG W/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE CHANCES FOR TYING/BREAKING
ANY RECORDS HAVE INCREASED FURTHER FOR INLAND AREAS TO ~60%, AND ARE
NOW CLOSE TO 20% AT THE COASTAL CLIMATE SITES. RECORD HIGHS FOR 3/27
ARE AS FOLLOWS:
FLORENCE, SC: 89 IN 2021
LUMBERTON, NC: 87 IN 1950 & 1949
WILMINGTON, NC: 87 IN 2020
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 80 IN 1944
THE TIMING AND RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FRONT HAVEN'T CHANGED
MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TIMING REMAINS ROUGHLY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD INSTABILITY HOLD ON INLAND AROUND SUNSET.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE VERY POORLY WITH THE LOW CLOUD
DECK ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE
PHOTOS SUGGEST AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATOCUMULUS WITH
BASES BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET AGL EXISTS ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
AND CAPE FEAR COASTLINE EXTENDING AS FAR INLAND AS KEYF AND
KCPC.
IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE APPEARS TO BE
A MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 13Z AT KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR, THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY 15Z. AS TEMPERATURES WARM, A
NEW HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP AROUND 5000
FEET AGL AFTER 18Z.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, VEERING
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 4 KT TONIGHT. WITH RISING DEWPOINTS, THERE
IS A MODERATE CHANCE VISIBILITY WILL FALL BELOW 5 MILES IN
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT KILM AND KCRE
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FRONT THAT BLEW THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TWO DAYS
AGO HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT NORTHWARD TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE HAS KEPT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS CAPE FEAR, BUT AS THIS
TROUGH WEAKENS LATER TODAY OUR WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH. UNTIL
THEN, NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SIX FOOT SEAS SHOULD ABATE BY SUNRISE AND WE'LL BE
ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
N/NE WINDS EARLY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND S/SW FLOW ~10
KTS STARTS TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL GET FURTHER
PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. SW WINDS ~15 KTS WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY WITH
A SHARP TURN TO NE'LY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS +6
FT. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NE SURGE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/LEW
DISCUSSION...TRA/LEW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/LEW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page