877
FXUS62 KILM 010022
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A
BRIEF WARM-UP BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO COASTAL
AREAS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LIKELY
IMPACTS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO
VEER TO THE N. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG,
AND WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER
THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER WITH THE FRONT,
BUT FORCING IS TRANSIENT AND NOT STRONG SO POPS ARE CAPPED AT
20-30% MOST AREAS. DRY THEN FOR MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID
50S AND BREEZY NNE WINDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF A
COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING ONSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING
TUESDAY. THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEADING TO A 10F+ RANGE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY FROM FAR INLAND AREAS TO THE
COAST. THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT QUICKLY TOWARD DELMARVA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY BUT GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO THE INITIAL RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE LOW'S PASSAGE. PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.6-1.7 INCHES WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY ON
THE HIGH SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL, QPF OF 1-1.5" IS
LIKELY, BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE SLOWER. DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE DEEP MOISTURE
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE LOW'S
TRAILING FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S FAR INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER/BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY
COLUMN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS MOISTURE MAY OVERSPREAD A WEDGE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING RAINFALL ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES INLAND VERSUS THE COAST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WAS LAYING JUST EAST OF A KFLO-
KLBT LINE AT 00Z, WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR
BETTER. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND THE WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CLOSE AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THEN NE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE GULF WILL
BRING LOWERED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR, AND RAIN LEADING TO MVFR OR
WORSE VISIBILITY. ILM MAY ALSO HAVE LLWS ON TUESDAY IN ADDITION
TO POSSIBLE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS A COLD FROPA
TONIGHT IS FOLLOWED BY WEAK CAA, SO THAT ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BOTH LATE TONIGHT AND DAYTIME
MONDAY. SEAS PREDOMINANTLY 2-4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS OUT 20NM
LATE MONDAY, A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND SE 8-9 SECOND
SWELL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO INCREASE AS
IT VEERS TO A SLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS TO NEAR DELMARVA BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW'S
TRAILING FRONT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
VEER TO A N-NELY DIRECTION, GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. BY FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH CREATING N-NELY FLOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL BE GREATEST WITH
THE SLY FETCH AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S LOW, THEN A LESS DRAMATIC
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE N-NELY FETCH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MAS/CRM
MARINE...ILM
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