427
FXUS62 KILM 192033
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
333 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING
COLDER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING. COLD, DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR AREA, CURRENTLY BETWEEN MYR AND
CRE ORIENTED WSW TO ENE, STALLING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LINGERING RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 40
DEGREES WITH CLOUDY SKIES. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TOMORROW WILL INDUCE PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA
STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TOMORROW EVENING
BEFORE PROPAGATING TO THE NE, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW, WE EXPECT TO SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY
SEE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX (RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW) AFTER
8PM FOR OUR NW AREAS AND AROUND MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE COAST. BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL OUR MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES -
PENDER, BLADEN, AND PARTS OF ROBESON - WHERE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE
COINCIDES WITH THE BEST MOISTURE. COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE
EXITING MOISTURE TOWARDS MORNING, BUT GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE REST OF SE NC, AND PARTS
OF NE SC, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
TEMPS DON'T RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-40S, WITH
LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DONE BY THIS POINT AND COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE, GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LOW
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 40S, AND SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN PENDER AND
BLADEN COUNTIES IN NC MIGHT STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS LOW ARE ROUGHLY 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S, AND A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FROST BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. EARLY
BLOOMING PLANTS FROM WARM WEATHER THE PAST 6 WEEKS WILL CONTINUE TO
NEED PROTECTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE MODEL
INSTABILITY FORECASTS DIFFER AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT
WITH A VFR STRATOCU CEILING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH RAIN MOVING BACK IN WITH THE NEXT, AND MORE
POTENT SYSTEM APPROACHING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ON THE STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS THU AND INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES ENE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRI. RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SNOW THU NIGHT BEFORE PCPN ENDS FRI MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR MIDDAY FRI, AND WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AS COLD, DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.
MARINE
TODAY THRU THU:
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT NOW FOR NC WATERS
AND STARTING 6PM FOR SC WATERS, THROUGH 3PM THURSDAY. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 3PM THURSDAY THROUGH 6PM FRIDAY FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING TO
4-6 FT, BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER TO 7-9 FT THURSDAY EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS, PREDOMINANTLY A 7-8 SEC NE SWELL. NE WINDS
TONIGHT AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED CAA. WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO SUSTAINED 25-30 KTS
AND FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRI THRU MON:
GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACH THE 6 TO
10 FOOT RANGE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE NNE AT . 6
TO 8 SECONDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL ENCOUNTER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WAVES 4 TO 6 FEET WITH WIND WAVES OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 7 SECONDS AND LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL FROM THE
EAST AT 12 SECONDS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
FEET FOR SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD WELL FROM THE EAST CONTINUING,
WITH WIND WAVES GRADUALLY REACHING NEAR 6 FEET TOWARD THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND THE NEXT CHANCES FOR HAZARDS TO SMALL
CRAFT WITH A MIX OF ESE WELL AROUND 10 TO 12 SECONDS AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MCK/VAO
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