702
FXUS62 KILM 310009
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
809 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE ADDED FOR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW HANOVER
AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT EXPECTED AT NEW HANOVER AND
GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES SUNDAY.
2) EXPECT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT EXPECTED AT NEW
HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES SUNDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF A 4-5 FOOT 6 SECOND ENE SWELL SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NEW HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY
BEACHES, ESPECIALLY WITH A MIDDAY LOW TIDE. A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR PENDER AND SOUTHERN HORRY COUNTY
BEACHES. ELEVATED SWELLS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A MODERATE,
POSSIBLY HIGH, RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST- AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXPECT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START TO SLIP OFFSHORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT BEFORE TRACKING INTO OUR AREA MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE COMBINED SYSTEMS
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM SW
TO NE. HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL START OUT IN NE SC EARLY MONDAY
WITH THE LOW, TRANSITIONING TO INLAND IN THE EVENING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHERE AND WHEN THESE FEATURES IMPACT THE AREA WILL
HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT FOR NOW THE
FORECAST IS FOR 0.5-1" ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC
THROUGH 00Z/01. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING GUSTY
ENE WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT. WE HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHOWERS AT
KFLO/KMYR FOR THE LOW CHANCE OF MOSTLY JUST SHOWERS PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINLY THRU ABOUT 06Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IMPACT
THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITHIN 20 NM, SW TO W WINDS INVOF 10 KT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NE TO E TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF
2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK AT 3 TO 6 FT SUNDAY.
FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT, SW TO W WINDS INVOF 10 KT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE
TO E TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK AT 4 TO 7 FT SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO START OUT WITH
S/SE FLOW 10-15 KTS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS NE SURGE COULD BRING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ELEVATED
NE WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS 20-60NMI OUT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...RJB/31
MARINE...LEW/31
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