769
FXUS62 KILM 191037
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE EVEN LOWER SHOWER CHANCES FOR
OUR AREA TODAY, WITH THE COLD FRONT RACING OUT AHEAD. BEST
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
COASTAL CAPE FEAR. AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE
12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECAYING SHOWERS WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FORECASTED AT THE BEACHES
THIS EVENING, AND DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS.
3) MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH LINGERING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECAYING SHOWERS WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING WESTERN NC WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECAYING SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. POPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 30% RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WHERE SOME MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH, AND
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35MPH MAINLY ACROSS SE NC. TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO A NON-
TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE WITH HIGH TEMPS EARLY TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECASTED IN THE LOW 40S, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY PREVAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FORECASTED AT THE BEACHES
THIS EVENING, AND DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS.
WITH NEW MOON THIS PAST FRIDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SE NC AND NE
SC COASTLINE WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT TO MITIGATE THE CURRENT
TIDAL ANOMALY ENOUGH WHERE WATER LEVELS DON'T REACH FLOOD STAGE.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO FORECASTED ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH LINGERING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK.
BREEZY AT TIMES (MAINLY MON/WED/FRI/SAT) AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPS
LATER IN THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T GET YOUR
HOPES UP TOO HIGH FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE RISK FOR FROST INLAND IS PRETTY LOW MON NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWERS WILL DECAY AS FRONT APPROACHES, WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS COASTAL CAPE FEAR, BUT
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. NNW WINDS
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ACROSS SE
NC. WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AROUND SUNSET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY PREVAILS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...15-20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST.THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH 20-25 KT WINDS OUT TO 20NM AND 25-30 KT WINDS BETWEEN
20NM AND 60NM. COULD SEE A FEW GALE-FORCE GUSTS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS NOT
TIED TO CONVECTION IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE SE NC COAST.
THE SEAS ACROSS 0-20NM COASTAL WATERS IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-4 FT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH N WIND WAVE REPLACING SW WAVE COMPONENT.
FOR 20-60NM WATERS, 4-5FT SEAS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 4-6 FT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A FEW 7 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
KICK BACK IN TUE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME WIND ENHANCEMENT LATER
WED/WED NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT GUSTS SHOULD MAINLY STAY BELOW 25 KT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER WATER. WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVES STAYING
ABOUT 4 FT OR LESS WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
WIND/SEA HEADLINES EVEN IN THE OFFSHORE 20-60 NM ZONES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/VAO
DISCUSSION...RJB/VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO
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