629
FXUS62 KILM 061054
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE APPROACH 7 AM EDT.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES STILL IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT CLOSER. INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO THE EARLY TIMING OF THE PRECIP,
CLOUD COVER AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT.
MAY SEE A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RUN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH, WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF POSSIBLE CLOUDS IN OUR AREA. BY SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
ARE NOT ALIGNED WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES
INCLUDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY LATER ON SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SSW TO SW WINDS WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH GUSTS STARTING TO BECOME
MORE APPARENT BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING. THESE GUSTS REACH THEIR
PEAK OF 20-23 KTS BY 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE COMING BACK
DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. TYPICAL AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY
BECOME BKN AT 4000-5000 FT AT TIMES, WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL THICKEN AND DROP MORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD BE FINE, BUT KFLO AND KLBT MAY DIP DOWN
INTO MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHRA IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z THURSDAY AT THESE SPOTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THURSDAY, DUE TO RAIN AND STORMS WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THESE CHANCES COME DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT COME
BACK UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FOG OR LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNINGS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SSW VEERS SLIGHTLY
TO THE SW BY THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS MAY
APPROACH NEAR GALE OVER THESE SAME OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT,
BUT A WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. SEAS AT 2-3 FT
WILL INCREASE UP TO 3-4 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM,
4-5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WINDS AND SEAS RAMP UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR
GUSTS TO 25 KT AND/OR SEAS UP TO 6 FT LATE THURSDAY OVER THE
0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS - NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A THIRD
PERIOD HEADLINE ATTM. AS USUAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WORSE
OVER THE 20-60 NM WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A GALE
WARNING WILL BE NEEDED, AS THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE HIGHER IN MAGNITUDE THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
MARINE CONDITIONS (WINDS AND SEAS) IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB
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