655
FXUS62 KILM 041820
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
2) MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT PRECEDED
BY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ACROSS EAST TX WILL MOVE EASTWARD, ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUFFICIENTLY TO VEER MID LEVEL WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUNDAY AS A BRIEF 850-700 MB LINK WILL EXIST TO THE GULF.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD CLIMB AS HIGH AS 1.6 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY SHOULD HELP GENERATE 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH
LITTLE CAPPING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN BROKEN LINES WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WITHIN CHANNELS OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. BOTH GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SMALL HELICITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY 25 KNOTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR, IMPLYING MULTICELLS ARE THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE.
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND PREDICTED STORM MOTION DO NOT ARGUE
FOR AN OVERLY LARGE WIND THREAT, ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SHIFTING TO THE COAST
DURING THE EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN LATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. THE COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE TUE NIGHT WHEN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SPOTS COULD DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S. FORTUNATELY, ELEVATED CLOUDS/WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE, ALTHOUGH IT'S WORTH NOTING THE NBM HAS
UP TO ~15% CHANCE OF TEMPS LESS THAN 37 DEGREES, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDER NORTHERN AREAS. DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT MUCH RISK FOR
FROST, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IF THE FORECAST
TRENDS COLDER. TEMPS SHOULD START TO REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATER
IN THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY RISK FOR RAIN, ALBEIT VERY MINIMAL,
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST STARTING WED NIGHT GIVEN THE GREATER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE THERE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD HAVE BASES BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET AGL WITH NO FLIGHT CATEGORY
ISSUES EXPECTED. AFTER SUNSET INCREASING LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE
COULD CREATE A THIN LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE COAST WHERE
BASES COULD DIP TO 1500-2000 FEET AGL. ODDS OF THESE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING INTO A CEILING ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. CLOUDS HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO AN MVFR CEILING LATE
TONIGHT (AFTER 08Z) AT KFLO AND KLBT, BUT EVEN HERE ODDS OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY ISSUES ARE NO HIGHER THAN MODERATE.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY 14Z
WITH SURFACE GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS. PREFRONTAL LINES OF
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO REACH AS FAR EAST AS KLBT AND KFLO AFTER 15-16Z
SUNDAY WITH SHORT-LIVED CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-
LIVED VISIBILITY AND CEILING IMPACTS IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND 06Z MONDAY WITH THE LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
ON NORTHERLY WINDS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR
THE PAST FIVE DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT SUNDAY MORNING, THEN TO
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING
SYNOPTIC WIND PLUS LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH THE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE LION'S SHARE OF RAIN MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNSET.
SEAS 3-4 FEET TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LARGELY DUE TO 8
SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL. INCREASING SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL
BUILD QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS INCREASING TO
4-5 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A BETTER RISK FOR SCA
CONDITIONS COMES STARTING TUE NIGHT AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GALE GUSTS EVEN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO AROUND 8-
9 FT.
CLIMATE
AFTER REPEATED ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, LOCAL YEAR-
TO-DATE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON FEBRUARY 10 WERE AS MUCH AS 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECENT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN MARCH AND NOW
CONTINUING INTO APRIL HAVE ERASED VIRTUALLY ALL OF THIS ANOMALOUS
COLD. YTD TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THROUGH APRIL 3 ARE NOW +0.3 DEGREES
IN WILMINGTON, +0.1 DEGREES IN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AND LUMBERTON, BUT
STILL -0.2 DEGREES IN FLORENCE.
CPC OUTLOOKS ACROSS THE 6-10 DAY, 8-14 DAY, AND 3-4 WEEK TIMEFRAMES
ALL SHOW AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS, IMPLYING LOCAL CITIES SHOULD HAVE GROWING POSITIVE
YTD TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BY THE END OF THE MONTH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/RJB
DISCUSSION...TRA/RJB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/RJB
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