818
FXUS62 KILM 061100
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL INLAND AREAS TODAY. POPS
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FOR SOME
AREAS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXPECTING TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT BASED ON
THE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE COVERAGE INLAND SUNDAY AN INCREASE IN
POPS SEEMS WARRANTED. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR AND
ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL IN NATURE IT APPEARS A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT OR IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES IS
DOABLE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL AREAS NOTING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE PRODUCT. MORE
ORGANIC CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY DICTATE READINGS
SLIGHTLY BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MAX HEATING BEFORE DRY
AIR MIXING DOWN SEEMINGLY DOES THE TRICK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BASICALLY VFR TO DOMINATE THRU 16Z WITH ANY GROUND FOG
DISSIPATING AROUND 12Z, THUS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE.
DAYS CONVECTION HAVE BEEN INDICATED WITH PROB30 GROUPS WITH
EMPHASIS ON GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AND REDUCED VSBY TO 4SM
IN TSRA. KEPT THE CONVECTION GOING INLAND TERMINALS, AT A
REDUCED INTENSITY, THRU 04Z GIVEN OUTFLOWS AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION. WINDS GENERALLY SW INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY
MIDDAY. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO 10-15 KT G20 KT DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
FORMATION BY MIDDAY AND SLOW INLAND PROGRESSION THERE-AFTER.
EXTENDED FORECAST... GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS EACH MORNING. THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU
ATLEAST THU.
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. BREEZY SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME CONVECTION COULD DISTORT WINDS TEMPORARILY. CHOPPY SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET. THE SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS STABLE
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE EXTENDED FETCH LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN SWELL AND WIND WAVES. A COMPRESSED GRADIENT WILL
KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page