778
FXUS62 KILM 211812
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
112 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPACTS HAS INCREASED FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM APPEARS LIKELY FOR
INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA, CONFIDENCE HAS
NOT IMPROVED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO GROWING UNCERTAINTIES WITH
HOW LONG TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR DAYS AFTER THE
WINTER STORM, PROLONGING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND TO THOSE WITHOUT WARM
SHELTER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
COLD AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BE 4000-5000 FEET DEEP; ABOVE IT A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT A THICKENING STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE OVERHEAD, TOPPED
OFF WITH A FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM.
PRECIPITATION GENERATED VIA MID-LEVEL UPGLIDE WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. INITIALLY THE THERMAL
COLUMN MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOWFLAKES, BUT RISING 700
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD TRANSITION IN-CLOUD HYDROMETEORS OVER TO
RAINDROPS. THE COLD AND VERY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WORTH OF WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW
20 DEG F, MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO REFREEZE FALLING RAINDROPS TO
SLEET SATURDAY.
SLEET MAY REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND CONTINUED RISING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN TO FAVOR FREEZING RAIN. THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE THE MOST DANGEROUS PORTION OF THE
STORM AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND PRECIPITATION
RATES INCREASE. DESPITE QUITE MILD MID-WEEK TEMPERATURES ADDING A
GOOD DEAL OF HEAT TO SOIL AND ROAD SURFACES, VERY COLD CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT STOP TRAVEL ISSUES
FROM DEVELOPING.
MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE WIDENED THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES ON SUNDAY
WITH HOW CLOSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST, DRAWS TO THE COASTLINE. THE TRACK THIS LOW TAKES WILL BE
INSTRUMENTAL IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH ABOVE-FREEZING AIR WORKS ITS
WAY ONSHORE, CHANGING FREEZING RAIN OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. RECENT MODEL
TRENDS NOW FAVOR A SLOWER, MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED FOR SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW TRACK THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITHIN THE NBM ENSEMBLE DATASET, THE SPREAD BETWEEN 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY NOW EXCEEDS 25 DEGREES F ACROSS
COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA, REFLECTING THE EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE
TEMPERATURE RANGE THAT CAN BE SCIENTIFICALLY JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME
RANGE. ENSEMBLE RANGES ARE SMALLER INLAND REFLECTING SOMEWHAT
GREATER CERTAINTY THAT COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
LUMBERTON AND THE PEE DEE REGION.
FREEZING RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THE COAST SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER ACCUMULATING FREEZING
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INLAND WHERE FREEZING RAIN STORM-
TOTALS IN THE HALF INCH RANGE REMAIN POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS A WIDE,
WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM AND OUR
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
IT'S POSSIBLE A WINTER STORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE 60-72 HOURS ADVANCE NOTICE OF IMPENDING
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
DAYS AFTER THE WINTER STORM, PROLONGING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND
TO THOSE WITHOUT WARM SHELTER NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW SOME MELTING
TO OCCUR, HOWEVER NIGHTTIME LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WILL PROMOTE RE-
FREEZING WITH SOME TRAVEL ISSUES STILL POSSIBLE. OF GREATER CONCERN
IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING AREAS SUFFERING POWER OUTAGES FROM ICE-DAMAGED TREES AND
POWER LINES.
AN ADDITIONAL ITEM OF NOTE IS THE GFS MODEL IS ALONE WITH ITS
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD LOW TEMPERATURE PROGS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXAMPLE: THE 12Z RAW GFS SHOWS A LOW
OF 0 F AT FLORENCE AND -1 F AT LUMBERTON TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF DEEP
SNOWPACK WERE PRESENT, OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THE SAME
SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STATISTICAL GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO ADJUSTS THESE VERY COLD RAW NUMBERS UP INTO THE TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A LIGHT
EASTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL TRY TO VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND TERMINALS LOOK A BIT MORE
VARIABLE IN NATURE. WINDS CALM HEADING TOWARDS SUNSET. A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AT 5 KTS OR LESS STARTS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. KFLO AND
KLBT MAY HAVE A CHANCE AT BRIEF, LIGHT RAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY, BUT
IT SHOULDN'T THREATEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. VFR SHOULD
RETURN BY MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...A NNE BREEZE AT 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, A WNW COMPONENT BUILDS IN, LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN LATER IN
THE DAY. SEAS AT 1-2 FT MAY MODESTLY TOWARDS 1-3 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE FRIDAY
EVENING. A NEARLY 1050-MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES WILL PUSH INCREASINGLY CHILLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY
RESPOND AND SHOULD BUILD TO 6-8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS APPEAR ALMOST CERTAIN BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN GENERAL, WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN 20
MILES OF SHORE BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THE LOW WILL TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PERTURB DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND NORTH
OF CAPE FEAR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD TURN WESTERLY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN ON MONDAY
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA/IGB
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