377
FXUS62 KILM 041050
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY.
WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFFSHORE WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WED
WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE WED INTO THURS WITH
PERSISTENT AND DEEPER SW FLOW. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP IN
THE 60S BY WED AFTN WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING AROUND ONE
AND A HALF INCHES. OVERALL SHOULD SEE CHC OF SHWRS BACK IN THE
FORECAST POSSIBLY BY WED, MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
INLAND OF THE COAST, BUT DEFINITELY BY THURS AS DEEPENING MID
TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT CLOSER. BY THURS AFTN, THERE
WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE POSSIBLY STRONGER
TSTORMS, BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LESS COVERAGE ON THURS.
COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRI WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TODAY WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS INLAND.
INTERMITTENT GUSTINESS MAY BE OBSERVED AT COASTAL TERMINALS BEHIND
THE SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT STEADY SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND
MAINTAINS A PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE NIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE EARLY-MORNING STRATUS
ALONG WITH TRANSIENT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
ENHANCED WINDS NEARSHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY
1-2 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND 2-3 FT IN THE 20-60NMI WATERS. A
NORTHEAST SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SEC WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM WITH SMALL WIND WAVES APPEARING AS
WINDS PICK UP TO 10-15 KTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THURS WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP SLOWLY TUES THROUGH THU,
ESPECIALLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON THURS. ALSO WILL SEE A SPIKE IN WINDS AND BACKING OF
WINDS NEAR SHORE IN AFTN SEA BREEZE INTO MIDWEEK.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AND ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THU WITH
SPORADIC GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT
WITH POST FRONTAL GUSTY NW TO N WINDS LIKELY MAINTAINING SCA
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE THROUGH THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ONSHORE AND VARIABLE AS THEY LIGHTEN UP THROUGH FRI BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH TUE MORNING,
INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT ON WED AND 3 TO 6 FT THU. SHOULD SEE UP
TO 7 FT IN OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 30 NM THROUGH LATE THURS.
SEAS WILL DROP ON FRI AS WINDS DIMINISH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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