166
FXUS62 KILM 080006
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
806 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 7 PM EDT: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. SURF PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, SEE THE SRF AND KEY MESSAGE 2 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
AS OF 3 PM EDT: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. ALSO, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ADDED
ALONG ALL COASTAL ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HEAT
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK.
2) ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH HEAT AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS
THAN WE'VE SEEN AS OF LATE, WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 20%
AND CONFINED TO FAR SE AREAS/OFFSHORE. TEMPS WARM A BIT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING 20-30% POPS INLAND, BUT THE NEXT GOOD RAIN CHANCES
(50-60% POPS) DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY FRIDAY,
HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN WITH UPR-LEVEL RIDGING JUST OFF THE SE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY AREA
BEACHES ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... ENE WINDS AND ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES ON
TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-
FACING BEACHES OF PENDER, NEW HANOVER, AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR HORRY COUNTY
BEACHES. A STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT WAS OBSERVED AT ALL AREA BEACHES
ON LABOR DAY AND IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THIS STRONG
LONGSHORE CURRENT KEPT RIP CURRENTS CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE AND
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENTS AND STRONG NEARSHORE RIP CURRENTS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH
AND DANGEROUS SURF.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET; CRE/MYR MAY SEE WEAK NE
GUSTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE MARINE LAYER. PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, BUT DRY AIR OVER LAND
SHOULD KEEP CIGS SHORT-LIVED IF THEY DEVELOP. VFR CONTINUES ON
TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS RETURNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY RETURNING
IN CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MODERATE ENE FLOW
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS OFF TO THE NORTH. DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY
UNDERCUTS SEAS IN THIS REGIME AND THEY ACTUALLY ALREADY ARE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THAT TIME AND
THEREAFTER, THE 6 FT SEAS SHOULD BE CONFIDED TO AROUND AND
BEYOND 20 NM. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NOTICEABLY SLACKENS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...MAS/21
MARINE...MAS/21
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