770
FXUS62 KILM 090105
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
905 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH BEST STORM
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR
THE WEEKEND, BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
FIXTURE.
UPDATE
LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH LATE ATLANTIC OCEAN NOCTURNAL
SHRA/TSRA SKIRTING PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST TOWARD AND
AROUND DAYBREAK WED. LOW LEVEL S-SSW JET SHOULD KEEP WINDS
FRISKY ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY INLAND. SHELTERED LOCATIONS INLAND, ESPECIALLY
AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL, MAY OBSERVE PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS FOR
THE NIGHT MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS LOCATIONS HAVING
RECEIVED RAINFALL, THOSE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE A RISE IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BACK PADDLE TO THE PRESCRIBED
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
NEED FOR A HEAT ADV ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT
UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS <20 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE
TROPOSPHERE UP UNTIL JET STREAM LEVEL (>30 KFT). TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE LEVELS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2", WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STEADY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND INLAND FROM COAST AROUND/WEST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST COURTESY OF THE
RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR
REGION, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THIS LOSS
OF HEATING, LEAVING ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ON WEDNESDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS HOLDING IN PLACE, THOUGH, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AT
LEAST A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED, ESPECIALLY
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THUS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/WEST OF I-95, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THESE STORMS SHOULD LARGELY DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MEAN SLOW-MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS PASS OVER THE SAME
AREA OR BECOME STATIONARY AS RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION, AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM MAY OCCUR AND PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD END UP A LITTLE LOWER TOMORROW THAN TODAY
DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND
THESE LOWER TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST AREAS FROM REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F, DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND OR INCREASE AS THE USUAL
FACTORS...SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING...THE PIEDMONT/INLAND
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE COMBINE IN TANDEM WITH
SIGNIFICANT PW VALUES IN PLACE. THESE FACTORS WARRANT LIKELY TO
EVEN CATEGORICAL POPS AT TIMES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TRAILING OFF OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER FROM A
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STANDPOINT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO
BUILD IN MORE AT TIMES. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
CONVECTION WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA HEAT RELATED
HEADLINES...PROBABLY MORE CONFINED TO ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR
TO BE FAIR GAME EACH DAY.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAST OF THE CONVECTION DONE FOR THE EVENING. WILL DEAL WITH SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND MOIST COLUMN WITH
PWS REMAINING 2+ INCHES, APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES DURING DAYLIGHT
WED. BOTH LBT AND FLO TERMINAL AREAS RECEIVED SOME RAIN AND
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR ILM FOR LATE PRE-DAWN HRS TO AROUND WED DAYBREAK TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF PCPN. IN ADDITION, THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MAY OBSERVE INTERMITTENT SCT POSSIBLY BKN STRATUS
FRACTUS IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SLATED FOR WED WITH PROB30 GROUPS
IDENTIFYING THE BEST TIMES FOR EACH TERMINAL. OVERNIGHT LLJ
S-SSW DIRECTION TO KEEP WINDS 5 TO 9 KT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS, AROUND 4 KT INLAND TERMINALS. BOTH LBT AND FLO
TERMINAL AREAS RECEIVED SOME RAIN AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRINGS WINDS S
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS REACHING 20 KT NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. INLAND TERMINALS, WILL SEE S-SSW WINDS CLIMB TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY DUE TO AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STEADY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND BROAD
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WAVES OF
2-3 FT WILL STEM FROM A COMBINATION OF 2-3 FT WIND WAVES AND
1-2 FT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SEC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN FULL FORCE FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF SOME SEA BREEZE ACCELERATIONS
AND DISTORTED WIND FIELDS FROM CONVECTION SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10- 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
WINDS COULD BE EVEN LIGHTER OR CONCENTRATED MORE TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/ABW
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