981
FXUS62 KILM 071028
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCH UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
EXTENDING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST SC
TODAY. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
2) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
3) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL BEACHES
FROM MID WEEK INTO SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED RIPS,
MODERATE TO STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS AND SURF THAT MAY BREACH
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
4) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK-WEEK. GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWING COLLABORATION WITH STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM EDT TO 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. MINIMUM RH WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
20%S TO AROUND 30% THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS WILL BENEFIT
FROM AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND, MAINTAINING RH IN THE
UPPER 30%S AND 40%S.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING, BUT LIKELY JUST BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE ONGOING
DROUGHT, INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOW RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK LED TO THE DECISION TO ISSUE
THE FDS. ANY ACTIVE FIRE SUPPRESSION ACTIVITIES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES NEAR 30% ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH, POTENTIALLY 30 MPH, WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH NORTHEAST SC
AND SOUTHEAST NC ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL BEACHES FROM MID WEEK INTO SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED RIPS, MODERATE TO STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS AND SURF
THAT MAY BREACH HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
PERSISTENT AND PROLONGED NE FETCH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
CAROLINA COASTS WITH ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SAT. THE PEAK OF THIS HIER SURF WILL OCCUR FROM WED
MORNING THRU THU MORNING AND COULD BREACH HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OF 6 FT OR GREATER. THE NEXT FULL UPDATE WILL
DETERMINE WHERE/WHEN TO PLACE THE HSA. OVERALL, BETWEEN 8 AND 11
SECOND PERIOD NE TO E WAVES/SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM THIS PERIOD. REMEMBER THOUGH, SEAS WILL PEAK IN A RANGE
FROM 6 TO 10 FT SO IN ESSENCE THIS IS A SHORT PERIOD LARGE
WAVE. GIVEN THE WAVE DIRECTIONS, NE-E, THE BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK
COUNTY WILL OBSERVE THE LEAST OF THE WORSE MARINE/BEACH
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. THOSE E-SE FACING BEACHES WILL
OBSERVE THE WORST RIPS, THE STRONGER LONGSHORE AND LARGER SURF
DURING THE TUE THRU SAT PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 4... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 65-70F EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SAFELY HOLD IN THE MID AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE
TO A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WILL PREVENT FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD TURN SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE.
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE CAROLINAS, COASTAL AREAS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 6 FEET COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 00Z THIS EVENING. OPTED NOT
TO ISSUE A SCA PRIOR TO GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SHORT TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF WHEN SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP, CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, PEAKING AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS 7-10 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NE STATES LATE
TONIGHT THRU THU. AT THE SAME TIME, BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL EAST
THRU SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD, WILL MEANDER
BACK TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTS LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU. THIS
AIDED BY A SERIES OF SFC LOWS MOVE NE ALONG IT WHILE THE
RIDGING/WEDGING WEAKENS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS A RESULT OF THE
NE STATES CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. THE TIGHTENED SFC PG AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING NE
WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS FROM
PREDAWN WED THRU EARLY THU. MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO HINT AT 1
CONSOLIDATED LOW THU INTO FRI THAT COULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GALES OR STRONG SCA GOING INTO FRI. THERE-AFTER,
MODELS PROGRESS WX FEATURES WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS FRI
INTO SAT AS A RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE NE GULF BECOMES
DOMINANT FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERLAYS THE
AREA WATERS.
THE PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10
FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THU BEFORE
FINALLY OBSERVING A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND LATE THU NIGHT THRU
SAT. AGAIN, THIS WILL BE A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND DUE TO THE
EXPANSIVENESS OF THE ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE EXTENSIVE NE FETCH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS LATER FRI THRU SAT NIGHT, SEAS ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL BE SLOWER TO DECAY AND MAY REMAIN AOA SCA THRESHOLDS GOING
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/21
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/VAO/21
DISCUSSION...DCH/VAO/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...DCH/21
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