980
FXUS62 KILM 031011 RRA
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
610 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE
H5 RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S AT
TIMES. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105F FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NC AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST NC ON
FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE COASTAL ZONES AIDED BY RELATIVELY COOLER
OCEAN AIR, AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINING ZONES DURING SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE HEAT INDEX COULD
APPROACH 110F DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT IS
DENTED BY PASSAGE OF 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL, WITH IMPULSES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CROSSING THE AREA. THE WEAKENED RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BY SUN BUT MORE LIKELY MON. RIDGING ALOFT
HANGS AROUND IN SOME FORM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BUT IN A WEAKER STATE. HOWEVER, UNTIL THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF
WEAKENING, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE DOME IN PLACE AND
SUBSEQUENT VERY DRY COLUMN, ESPECIALLY ABOVE H85.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY. MVFR FOG
PATCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS STARTING SUNDAY MORNING.
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS RETURNS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH LINGERS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE WEAK LOW WELL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH. THE RESULTING LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY OVER POWERED BY SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCED ONSHORE FLOW. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY ON THE LOW END
OF THE 10-15KT RANGE RAMP UP FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE COAST, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. INTERIOR
HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS WEEKEND. SPEEDS INCREASE A LITTLE MORE FOR
MON/TUE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER, DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
INLAND TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KT THROUGH
TUE. SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND START TO INCREASE MON, PEAKING
3-4 FT TUE DUE TO PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FETCH.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR JULY 3-7...
FRIDAY, JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ017-024-033-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III/SRP
DISCUSSION...III/SRP
AVIATION...MBB/III
MARINE...III
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