110
FXUS62 KILM 101846
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
246 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
2) THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
MODELS HAVEN'T CHANGED APPRECIABLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, STILL ANTICIPATED TO ENTER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD BE LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS
PLENTY COLUMN BEGINS TO MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 80S SHOULD SUPPORT UNCAPPED SURFACE CAPE OF 1000
J/KG (GFS) TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG (NAM) WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH DEEPER
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXPECT BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, AND THEREFORE COVERAGE, OVER EASTERN
THIRD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, JUST INLAND OF THE COAST,
ALSO AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE WITH LOCALIZED
BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIFT. CAMS ALSO SUGGESTS STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE BEST IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A MINIMUM IN COVERAGE IN THE BENNETTSVILLE-
LUMBERTON AREA GIVEN THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT THERE.
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ALSO THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT
AND HAIL MORE LIMITED CHANCE.
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT, LINGERING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO EXTREME EASTERN SC COULD
PRODUCE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THIS
PERIOD HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY
DECREASING AFTER 03Z. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN NEAR THE
COAST AND UP TO A TENTH FOR INLAND AREAS (THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH).
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS NORTH
OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST SHOULD BE FOR SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS MAINTAINING
SLIGHTLY INFLATED CAPE VALUES FOR THE TIME OF DAY AND ENVIRONMENT.
FORECASTED RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS EVENT, BUT THE
EXPECTATION OF COVERAGE REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE NO CONNECTION TO GULF OR
ATLANTIC MOISTURE, SO A FORECAST OF 30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SEEMS REASONABLE,
DRIVEN MORE BY DYNAMICS THAN BY DEEP MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY. THE
INCREASE IS LIKELY DUE TO PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON THE
TIMING AND BETTER AGREEMENT ON COARSE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF RAIN
CHANCES (NOTE THAT POPS ONLY INDICATE THE CHANCE OF RAIN EXCEEDING
0.01"). IN OTHER WORDS, THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD. ONLY
EXPECTING STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 3500-5000 FT,
CLUSTERING THE MOST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
INLAND. SW TO W WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
INCLUDED SOME MVFR VSBYS FROM SHALLOW FOG AFTER 09Z FOR A FEW
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BY NOON AT LBT AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT FLO. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO SEA BREEZE BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH. INCLUDED A PROB GROUP
FOR LOWER VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO SHRA AT FLO, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD, AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. VFR RETURNS TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS
INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
NEXT COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...PREVAILING WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE W TO SW AND
REMAINING QUITE LIGHT EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE FOUND DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS MAY
VEER A BIT MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, BUT BASICALLY, LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY UP UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT UP UNTIL FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND NORTHEAST SURGE
OCCURS, BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MON EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE NE SURGE OF WINDS MAY ECLIPSE SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
THE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE AND MAINTAIN 4-6 FEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY ENTERING AND EXITING THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS TURN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BE
WEAK AND LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS ON
THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS; CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS FOR NOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/21
DISCUSSION...RGZ/21
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page