143
FXUS62 KILM 170046
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
846 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE BEACHES OF
NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON.
AS OF 3 PM... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SEE THEIR
LONGEST HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF 90 DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS A FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD
SEE THEIR LONGEST HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH FIVE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90 DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DEEP SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A 500 MB RIDGE
ALONG THE NC COAST SHOULD LEAD TO SUNSHINE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CREEP UP TO +17C TO +18C AT TIMES, AT OR
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AT BOTH THE CHS AND MHX UPPER AIR SITES. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY, THEN IN THE
LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO LARGELY SUPPORTED
BY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE BLENDS.
SO FAR THIS YEAR, OUR LONGEST STREAK OF 90+ DEGREE OR HOTTER
HEAT (FOUR DAYS) OCCURRED APRIL 15-18 AT BOTH FLORENCE AND
LUMBERTON. THIS COMING HEAT EVENT SHOULD ECLIPSE THAT DURATION
BY ONE DAY IN BOTH LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AS HIGH
AS THE MID 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WIND IN PLACE, COASTAL CITIES
(GEORGETOWN, MYRTLE BEACH, SOUTHPORT, AND WILMINGTON) SHOULD
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. NEARSHORE
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES SHOULD WARM BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN WILL HELP PROVIDE UP
TO 10 DEGREES OF FREE, NATURAL COOLING TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS A
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
AFTER PEAKING NEAR 5900 METERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, 500 MB
HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ATTACKED BY A WEAK CUTOFF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A SERIES OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED
BY THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY, PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NBM MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS HIGH COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (60-80 PERCENT) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BUT THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE THUNDERSTORMS WE HAD LAST MONDAY. SEVERE
DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SIX-MONTH
RAINFALL HAS ONLY BEEN 50 TO 70 PERCENT NORMAL, ALMOST TEN
INCHES BELOW NORMAL AT MYRTLE BEACH.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD KEEP FOG CHANCES LIMITED. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 50S TODAY. DESPITE THE SEA BREEZE, IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO REACH THE CROSSOVER.
SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER. DON'T EXPECT IT TO IMPACT
TERMINALS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD, IF ANY DEVELOPS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITHIN 20 NM, LIGHT S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET.
FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT, GENERALLY EXPECTING S WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT
WITH SEAS OF 3 TO OCCASIONALLY 4 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT
NEARSHORE COULD LOCALLY INCREASE NEARSHORE WIND SPEEDS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH
DAY.
CHANGES SHOULD ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD TICK UP AS
THE RIDGE ALOFT DECAYS AWAY AND THE FRONT ACTS AS AN ADDITIONAL
TRIGGER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WE'RE CONTINUING TO
FORECAST A SOUTHERLY WIND THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, BUT WE'LL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAY MOVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/21
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/31
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