354
FXUS62 KILM 260622
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
222 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BEACHES AND
FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON FOR THIS
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DURING HIGH
TIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) OUR COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DURING HIGH
TIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TIDE GAUGES AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND MYRTLE BEACH CONTINUE TO
REPORT TIDAL ANOMALIES IN THE +1.0 TO +2.0 FOOT RANGE, HELD
THERE BY THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND STRONG LOW PRESSURE NOW
CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WHEN THIS ANOMALY IS ADDED
TO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING EACH HIGH TIDE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IS BEING
ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE, EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
7:30 AM AT THE BEACHES AND AROUND 10 AM ON THE CAPE FEAR RIVER
AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
THE TIDAL ANOMALY SHOULD BEGIN TO FADE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE LOW WEAKENS, BUT LARGE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ENHANCED BY THIS
MONTH'S FULL MOON MAY MAKE UP THE DIFFERENCE AND MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...OUR COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING.
WE'VE ALREADY HAD TWO MORNINGS IN A ROW WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S AND AT LEAST TWO MORE ARE COMING. IT CERTAINLY FEELS
LIKE FALL HAS FINALLY REACHED THE CAROLINAS! NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS THE LOW WEAKENS NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD LOSE THE FLOW FROM
CANADA, REPLACED BY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BEARING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80, HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE INLAND PEE
DEE REGION. NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER ARE LOWER 80S.
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE TOO
STABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS
FOR PARTS OF OUR REGION THAT DID NOT PICK UP SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. LUMBERTON'S THREE-WEEK RAINFALL
TOTAL OF 0.61" IS ONLY 18 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT BETWEEN 14-18Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MORNING
GROUND FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE
RETURNS ONSHORE.
MARINE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NJ COASTLINE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DECREASING WINDS AND WAVES THIS FAR SOUTH MEAN WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON-SCHEDULE AT 8 AM FOR
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS FALL BELOW 6 FEET
INSIDE 20 MILES OF SHORE.
OUR DOMINANT WAVE GROUP SHOULD REMAIN THE 11 TO 13 SECOND
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, DECREASING IN HEIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEXT
WEEK, PROVIDING A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE. A SMALL WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND CHOP WILL ARISE AT TIMES BEGINNING
SUNDAY, BUT COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA
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