230
FXUS62 KILM 201819
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OFFSHORE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL TO SE NC AND NE SC.
GENERAL MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 0.5-0.75" BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 1" ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SC AND
NEAR THE NC COAST AROUND CAPE FEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT,
POSSIBLY REACHING RECORD LOWS IN SC MON NIGHT.
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO SE NC AND NE SC.
HIGHS MON/TUE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 30 SUN NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 20S MON NIGHT. RECORD LOWS AT
FLORENCE/N. MYRTLE BEACH COULD BE REACHED MON NIGHT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS). IN ADDITION, MIN WIND CHILLS SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SUN/MON NIGHTS.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR REACHING WIND CHILLS OF 15 DEGREES OR
COLDER (I.E., COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA) IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONFIDENCE A BIT ON THE
LOW SIDE. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL
LIGHTNING IS TO AFFECT LBT AND FLO, POSSIBLY WITH GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THESE CELLS MAKE IT TO THE
COAST BUT FEEL ALL TERMINALS HAVE A GOOD ENOUGH SHOT FOR A PROB30.
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS STILL EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS IN WHILE CLOUD DECK LOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. MYR AND CRE HAVE THE BEST CHANGE FOR LOWERED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FROM CIGS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BUT NO APPRECIABLE FLIGHT CATEGORY LOWERING
EXPECTED FROM THE PRECIP DUE TO IT'S LIGHT NATURE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO A STALLED FRONT AND PASSING LOW PRESSURE. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH THE THREAT OF FOG AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. VFR SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...
DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIME OF 8 PM APPEARS ABOUT ON TRACK. TOUGHER CALL IS THE
ONGOING MARINE FOG AS OUR SWRLY FLOW HAVE ADVECTED DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S OVER WATER THAT IS IN THE UPPER 40S. LENGTHENED THE
ADVISORY TIL 06Z TONIGHT WHEN NOT ONLY WILL THE FRONT CHANGE THE
WINDS/FOG TRAJECTORY BUT ALSO DEWPOINTS MAY FALL. THE CONSSHORT WAS
HANDLING THE FOG WELL AND TECHNICALLY WAVES IT OFF ALONG SC BEFORE
THIS BUT PREFERRED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LENGTHEN THE
HEADLINE FOR ALL WATERS, LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-ASSESS. WINDS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT TOMORROW AND GENERALLY ONSHORE WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
BEFORE STRENGTHENING OFF TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THE RESULTING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A HIGH RISK FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR AT LEAST GALE FORCE
GUSTS SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. SEA FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN A RISK INTO
EARLY SUN AS A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR 2/20/2026...
WILMINGTON NC - KILM (81 LAST SET IN 1991)
LUMBERTON NC - KLBT (80 LAST SET IN 2018)
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC - KCRE (77 LAST SET IN 1949)
FLORENCE SC - KFLO (83 LAST SET IN 2014)
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/24/2026...
WILMINGTON NC - KILM (18 LAST SET IN 1901)
LUMBERTON NC - KLBT (18 LAST SET IN 1978)
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC - KCRE (26 LAST SET IN 2009)
FLORENCE SC - KFLO (24 LAST SET IN 1968)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB/MBB
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