701
FXUS62 KILM 060640
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. DRY
AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VERY BROAD, WEAK 5H TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STALLED
FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND OVER TIME IT WILL
CREEP FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. WEAK SURFACE WAVES MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY PUSH THE FRONT CLOSER TO
SHORE, BEFORE THE OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF EACH WAVE
COMBINED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PUSHES THE FRONT
FARTHER OFFSHORE. RATHER THAN SMOOTHLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE
BOUNDARY WILL WALK BACK AND FORTH, MAKING LARGER MOVEMENTS AWAY
FROM THE COAST EACH TIME. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
TONIGHT.
EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ONSHORE, THE DECIDING FACTOR IN HOW FAR THE RAIN MOVES
ONSHORE WILL BE DOWN TO MOISTURE IN THE 900-700 MB LAYER. THIS IS
WHERE THE ONLY DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY AIR IN
THIS LAYER IS WHAT BROUGHT ABOUT THE END TO RAIN FRI EVENING AND
THIS DRY AIR LINGERS INTO SAT MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
DRIZZLE FROM THE NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BELOW 900MB FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT
MEANINGFUL RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING SAT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES TO 150-200% OF NORMAL BY MIDDAY, LINGERING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 600MB MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ENDING RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-95 A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET
WHILE ALONG THE COAST RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
HIGH CLOUD LINGERS PAST MIDNIGHT, BUT SKIES WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR
OUT BY DAYBREAK SUN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AREAS OF FOG SEEM LIKELY AND DENSE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THE RAINFALL GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHT AND HARD TO SAY JUST HOW FAR RAIN WILL PUSH INLAND. THE GOOD
NEWS IS NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AREAS WEST OF I-
95 COULD STAY DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 0.05" IN PLACES WHILE
ALONG THE SE NC COAST 0.10-0.20" IS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL WILL
BE ALONG THE NE SC COAST WHERE 0.10-0.25" IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN W-SW FLOW WHILE WEAKENING SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT THE SFC
EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RUN FROM SW TO NE
ALONG LINGERING FRONT OVER GA/SC EARLY SUN WITH A FAIRLY DRY
COLUMN ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE INLAND NC/SC. SOME VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY SUN MORNING BUT
EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP SOME OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
OVER NC SUNDAY AFTN. AS SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT, SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH AS
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT GETTING NUDGED UP CLOSER TO
THE COAST WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC
LATER ON SUN. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW ON MON AS MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE DRIVES THE LINGERING FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES, IT SHOULD PRODUCE THE LAST BIT OF CLOUDS AND
PCP OVER THE AREA BEFORE DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE
SFC BUT THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW, BELOW 5-6K FT WITH VERY DRY AIR
ABOVE SO SHOULD BE COLD RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FINISH BEFORE THE
COLUMN DRIES OUT.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME DRYING, AND READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOW TEMPS SUN
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS
MON WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
SETTLING OVER THE AREA FOR MON NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING MOST PLACES FOR LOWS WITH MID 20S MOST PLACES INLAND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ON TUES WILL MODIFY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON FRI WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP. TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL OR
ABOVE UNTIL FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY FRI NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SUB 1K FT CEILINGS HANGING
AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN ARRIVING MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE ON AND
OFF THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, LIGHTEST INLAND HEAVIEST AT THE COAST.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES
FOR IFR ALONG THE COAST DURING THE PERIODS OF INCREASED RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IFR/MVFR SWITCH IS ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT DO
THINK ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL COMES TO
AN END BY EVENING AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COMBINATION OF RECENT
RAINS AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR FOG RIGHT AROUND 06Z. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD IFR VISIBILITY BECOMES MUCH MORE LIKELY AS SKIES START TO
CLEAR OUT AND WINDS GO CALM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MIX OF MVFR/VFR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NIGHTLY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST GRADUALLY
MOVES EAST. NO REAL COLD SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING HIGH
AND GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK, SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 3 FT WELL AWAY
FROM SHORE. BOTH AN EAST AND A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL BE PRESENT
WITH THE EASTERLY SWELL STRONGER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT TODAY WITH A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUN
WILL WEAKEN AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUN NIGHT INTO
MON TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING FROM
5 TO 10 KTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY MON AND POSSIBLY UP TO 20 TO
25 KTS MON NIGHT. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS SUN INTO SUN NIGHT WILL
BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE MON INTO TUES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTN INTO MON EVE AND LAST INTO
TUES. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUES INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OFF THE COAST WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING WED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/RGZ
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