508
FXUS62 KILM 202340
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM UP IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS
COVERING EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. TWO UPDATES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND FOR THE ANTICIPATION FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE BEING GENERATED IN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER AN OLD FRONT STALLED OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INTO EASTERN GEORGIA. THE GFS HAS
MODELED INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THIS LAYER TO BE A
USEFUL FORECAST TOOL, HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM APPEARS MORE REALISTIC
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CENTERED BETWEEN
2500-3500 FEET AGL WITH A DRY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
THE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. I'VE PENCILED IN
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1 MILE EXTENDING FROM THE SANTEE RIVER
NORTHWARD ACROSS GEORGETOWN, MARION, FLORENCE, DARLINGTON AND
DILLON. ODDS APPEAR LOWER, BUT NOT ZERO, THAT FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SC
LOWCOUNTRY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ERODED AWAY BY MIDDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
STILL 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE EDGES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS, ALLOWING WINDS
TO CALM BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH CIRRUS ALOFT, PATCHY
GROUND FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE BEFORE AND DURING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING,
MOSTLY OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 50S.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN LOWCOUNTRY BECOMES A WARM FRONT
AND SURGES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ONLY MANIFEST IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
BUT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PEE DEE REGION AND THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
STILL BE THE MAIN IDEA, WITH A QUICK TRANSITION INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHS IMMEDIATELY SHOOT BACK UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S,
WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ROCKETING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, MAINLY
RESULTING INCREASED CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY, WILL
BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE WARMING
FOR MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE FAIR WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES IN THE 2500-3500 FT AGL RANGE COVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UP THROUGH LUMBERTON (LBT) IN NORTH
CAROLINA. THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. MORE IMPACTFUL LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AS STRATUS AND FOG APPEAR LIKELY IN A STRIPE
CENTERED ON THE FLORENCE (FLO) AND LUMBERTON (LBT) AREAS BETWEEN
09-11Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
HERE. THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER FOR IMPACTS AT THE MYRTLE BEACH
AIRPORTS AND LOWER STILL FOR WILMINGTON (ILM).
INLAND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY EACH MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS VEER SLIGHTLY TO
THE ENE AND DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, CREATING A VARIABLE WIND
AT FIRST, BUT THEN SETTLING ON SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT 2-3 FT DECREASE TO 1-2 FT BY TONIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH THE WEATHER
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT WIND SPEEDS TO 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS WINDS VEER FROM S TO SW FRI NIGHT TO NW TO NW SAT
NIGHT AND N TO NE FOR SUN INTO MON. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO E TO
SE BY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SEAS SHOULD RUN 2 TO 3
FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK OF 15 TO PERHAPS 20
KT. FOUR FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NORTHERN WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM
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