489
FXUS62 KILM 201830
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NMI. LOWERED FORECAST DEW POINTS THROUGH THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY CANADIAN
AIRMASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN
A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
EAST OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MEANDERING WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
LOCALLY, DRY WEATHER, CLEAR SKIES, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, OUR WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY VEER EASTERLY ENOUGH TO BRING MORE HUMIDITY ONSHORE,
BUT WITH SUFFICIENT RIDGING CONTINUING ALOFT TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AMIDST STEADY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE SPEEDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THURSDAY. EVEN SO, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER
ROUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LARGE ZONE OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAINTAINS ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS OUR
AREA. EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS NEAR
CAPE FEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEEING 6-FT WAVES THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE IN THE DAY.
LOOKING LATER IN THE WEEK: HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
FRIDAY SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SEAS
LIKELY TO SURGE BACK OVER 6 FEET AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...TRA/ABW
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