586
FXUS62 KILM 261833
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
233 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EXPIRED FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AT
NOON. UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VERY BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND COASTAL BREEZES
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VERY BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL START TO
WEAKEN, EASING WINDS A BIT TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE REPRIEVE FROM
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES EARLY WED AND CONTINUES INTO THU WITH THE RETURN OF
ADVERSE MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS. GRADIENT WEAKENS THU WITH WIND
SPEEDS DROPPING AND CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING EACH
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND
COASTAL BREEZES THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THIS WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF RISE IN
DEWPOINTS INTO MIDWEEK WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND IT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER BEGINNING WED MORNING.
THERE WILL BE AN OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR AND NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS WILL GUST UP AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TUES AFTN BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR CIG
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
MARINE
PINCHED GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM, BUT OVERALL, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE WITH SEAS TO GRADUALLY FOLLOW. EXPECT A
FEW AREAS TO SEE SEAS LINGERING OVER 6 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE ADVISORY COMES DOWN, THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 24-30 HOUR
WINDOW WITH NO ADVISORIES. HOWEVER REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES EARLY WED AND CONTINUES INTO THU, ACCOMPANIED BY A
NORTHERLY SURGE. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BEGINNING ON WED AND CONTINUING THU. WINDS WILL
BE BORDERLINE AS FAR AS CRITERIA GO, BUT EXPECT SEAS WILL
RETURN ABOVE 6 FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE 10-20 NM WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III
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