991
FXUS62 KILM 200623
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER
WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL FORCING COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
THE DROUGHT SITUATION QPF POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW UNFORTUNATELY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY ALSO LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT LESS SO AS THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY A WEDGE COMING IN FROM THE NORTH
DECREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF
EAST OF THE MIDATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING FOR COOL AND DRY ADVECTION
INTO THE SOUTHEAST, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERALLY VFR AS THE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED STRATUS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF THE GRAND STRAND
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE MOVING ASHORE AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MYR AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
MANIFEST AS A MID LEVEL CEILING FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY SUNDAY AS
WELL AS AT CRE. SOME PREDAWN FOG IS EXPECTED AT LBT AND FLO PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. A FEW SEABREEZE-RELATED WIND SHIFT FM GROUPS NEEDED AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
MINIMIZE WINDS, SHORT PERIOD WAVES, AND SWELL EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD CHANGE
CONDITIONS CONSIDERABLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY WEDNESDAY N TO NE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO
ADVISORY LEVELS, THOUGH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE WIND WILL HINGE
UPON THE CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT FORMS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO SCA
CRITERIA WITH THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AFFECTING JUST HOW
MUCH INTO SCA CRITERIA SEAS GROW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
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