872
FXUS62 KILM 180136
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
836 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2019
SYNOPSIS
DAMP CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH, ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF FOG AND MIST.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY, AND
MEANDER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
LEADING TO PERIODS OF LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN IN THE WEEK
AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING A DRY DAY THIS TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 836 PM SUNDAY...FORECAST RAIN CHANCES AND MOSAIC RADAR
TRENDS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNC PRESENTLY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. EXPECT ATYPICAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, RISING THROUGH
THE NIGHT, 10 DEG F OR BETTER IN SPOTS, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC TO CENTRAL GA THIS MID-EVENING, MIGRATING NORTH. ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND HIGHER OVERNIGHT, OVERALL AMOUNTS IN THE
RAIN BUCKETS TO REMAIN MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG TO PLAGUE INLAND
SITES, AND ALSO THE COAST INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS ASCENDING
DEWPOINTS TRAVERSE COOLER INSHORE WATERS.
AS OF 609 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED,
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BRING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG INCREASES INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS
DEWPOINTS RISE IN AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CHILLED SSTS.
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS A VERY SHALLOW RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE RIDGE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
OCCUR EARLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT. BEST RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL OCCUR FARTHER INLAND AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED, GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH INCH MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BEFORE SOME
CLEARING OCCURS AND ISENTROPIC GLIDE BECOMES NEUTRAL. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COLD AIR IS LACKING
WITH FROPA AND HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS THINKING
IS IN LINE WITH THE FAVORED WARMER ECE/MAV HIGHS FOR MONDAY. RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TO THE LOWER 40S AT
THE COAST AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE 1ST HALF OF TUE WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY DRY BUT UNFORTUNATELY AN INCREASE IN OVERRUNNING TYPE
CLOUDINESS AS A WEDGE SETS UP. RIDGING WITH COLD AIR FUNNELING
SOUTHWARD WILL DOMINATE TUE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
FOR DAYTIME TUE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE
ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND. BY AND DURING WED, THE SOURCE OF THE
COLD AIR, IE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF NEW
ENGLAND. THUS EXPECT A PARTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THIS WEDGE WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE INVERTED SFC TROF OR COASTAL FRONT, TO PUSH
ONSHORE AND INLAND. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TEMP FCST
BUST WILL BE AT IT'S HIEST. HOW FAR INLAND THIS TROF/FRONT GOES
WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIP WITH STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE MORE CONVECTIVE IE. SHOWERY IN NATURE,
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. PCPN AMOUNTS FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY RUN ONE TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE
COAST AND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH INLAND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING
SW TO NE FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST TO OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES COAST. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO KEEPS AN OPEN MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION, WEAK VORTS ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROF, WILL
TRACK NE AND PASS AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH INLAND FROM THE ILM CWA
FROM ANY DIRECT INFLUENCE. NEVERTHELESS, ISENTROPIC LIFT IE.
OVERRUNNING, WILL DOMINATE THE PRODUCTION OF CLOUDS AND
STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN FOR THE ILM CWA. MODELS INDICATE THU WILL
BE THE "DRIEST" DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AND IN ADDITION,
THE MILDEST OR WARMEST, DEPENDING IF TEMPS MAKE IT INTO THE 60S
OR 70S. MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAT COULD PUT AN END TO THIS WET REGIME. BUT GIVEN 7
DAYS OUT, WILL NOT JUMP ON THE BAND WAGON AS OF YET BUT WILL
BACK DOWN ON THE POPS AND DECREASE THE CLOUDINESS SOME.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 0Z....SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH IFR/LIFR AND
LESS THAN 5MI VSBY INLAND AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BEFORE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 18Z AND LIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. AT INLAND TERMINALS, LOOK FOR IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST THOUGH TOMORROW MORNING, POSSIBLY LIFR AT TIMES, WITH MVFR
FOG LIKELY EARLY MORNING. IFR SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR IN THE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 17Z. LLWS ALSO BRIEFLY FORECASTED
BETWEEN 6 AND 8Z AT FLO AND LBT WHEN A 40KT JET DEVELOPS AROUND 2 KFT.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER. CURRENTLY MVFR, ON THE
BORDER OF IFR. MOST LIKELY WILL BE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE COASTAL
SITES OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE TWO CATEGORIES. HAVE FORECASTED A DECLINE
INTO IFR OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, AND
THEN IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR IN THE MORNING, BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR
AROUND 18/19Z. POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT THE
MYRTLES, AND SO HAVE INCLUDED DECREASED VISIBILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INLAND OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH AT FLO AND LBT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT
AS OF 609 PM SUNDAY...ESE WAVES EVERY 10-11 SECONDS AND
SHORTER PERIOD E WIND-SEAS PREVAILED, MIXED WITH S-SSE WAVES
EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT, MIST
AND FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT, THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. NO TSTMS, BUT DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL
KEEP MARINE CONDITIONS DAMP. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AS THE OLD FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE FLOW
WILL VEER AROUND FROM THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO
THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL,
LIKELY TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK INITIALLY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER A SURGE WILL INCREASE
NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. SEAS
OF 3-5 FT ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE
SUBSIDING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...
TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A WEDGE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF OR COASTAL FRONT TAKING
SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. THE SFC PG
WILL TIGHTEN TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS WILL SURPASS SCA
THRESHOLDS AND IN TURN, SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AND
ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS WITH 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS COMMON. EAST
OF THE COASTAL TROF, SE TO S WINDS WILL BE BUSY AND ADD TO THE
MIX ESPECIALLY WHEN THE COASTAL TROF/FRONT GETS PULLED ONSHORE
BY WED. THE SFC PG WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIGHTENED WITH WINDS
15 TO 25 KT WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
COASTAL FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FINALLY ABATE AND SUBSIDE-
SOME THU INTO FRI DUE TO A BRIEF LULL IN THE PASSAGE OF MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DROP BACK
SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY AND COULD RESULT IN WINDS BACKING TO THE
NE WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...SRP/COLBY
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/SRP/MJC
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