311
FXUS62 KILM 282332
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND TEMPORARILY STALLING IN THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH ON MONDAY.
UPDATE
NO CHANGES AT THE MOMENT WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
WITH CENTER JUST TO THE NORTH, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY VEER
AROUND TO THE NW TO N TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH, AND NE TO E ON TUES AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPS DOWN BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST SPOTS
INLAND OF THE COAST AND EVEN SOME 30S IN TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND EAST, BUT
THIS WILL BE INTO THE EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 40 TO
50-KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE AVAILABLE CAPE, SO
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA WITH AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THIS
HIGH SHEAR/VERY LOW CAPE EVENT ALONG THE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S AT THE COAST, WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60 WEST
OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE LOWER TO MID-70S AT THE COAST. FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DOMINATE LATE IN THE WEEK.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SUNDAY. THE
PRIMARY ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1.0" THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ENERGY
CROSSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR
SITE ON MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME, ONLY LOW CHANCES OF POPS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT AT THIS TIME WILL BE LESS THAN 20%.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM THE 50S ON THURSDAY, RISING TO
AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MID 60S.
THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING INLAND TO THE UPPER
30S AND A FEW LOW 40S AT THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOWS WILL
WARM THROUGH THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, WITH LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID-50S AT THE BEACH AND
SETTLING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND ENOUGH
MIXING WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS TO KEEP FOG AT
BAY. INFRA RED SATELLITE SHOWS ANY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST AS WELL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH CENTER JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND NE ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST, DIMINISHING FROM
10 TO 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT ON TUES. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS ON
TUES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT OFFSHORE
WIND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS, OVERHEAD WINDS WILL RELAX AND VEER FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 4 TO 5
FEET, MAINLY OFFSHORE, FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AND WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 2 TO
4 FEET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...15
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RGZ/RH
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