057
FXUS62 KILM 240631
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BRIEF TREND OF BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- 2) SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTS FRIDAY AND GOES WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BRIEF TREND OF BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AS OF 2 AM
EDT. RAIN CEASED HOURS AGO, AND WINDS HAVE OFFICIALLY FLIPPED TO
THE NNE. CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED YESTERDAY.
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT BRINGS UNSEASONABLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. TODAY IN
PARTICULAR WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
INLAND, MID 80S AT THE COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 60S, DROPPING SLIGHTLY MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, AND ONLY A GENTLE
SEABREEZE WILL BE FELT THIS AFTERNOON.
A TAD WARMER THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND, UPPER
80S AT THE COAST, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY STICKS AROUND FOR ONE
MORE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTS FRIDAY AND GOES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY QUICK PATTERN CHANGE COMES INTO PLAY FRIDAY, AS RIDGING
OVER BOTH THE GULF AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS NORTHWARD AND
MERGES TOGETHER. THIS WILL CULMINATE TOWARDS A CLASSIC SUMMER
HEAT DOME THAT AMPLIFIES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS LIKELY EVERYDAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK TO BE A GIVEN OVER THE WEEKEND (HEAT INDEX OF 105-109
DEGREES FOR 2+ HOURS).
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS THE RAIN CHANCES VERY LIMITED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH THE SEABREEZE PROVIDING THE ONLY HOPE FOR SOME
RELIEF. RAIN CHANCES GET A BIT BETTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
NEAR KILM AND KLBT AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT IT
SHOULDN'T BE A PROLONGED ISSUE. SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AT 8-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
EXCEPTIONS MAY INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT
20 NM. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OUT OF THE NNE WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE E BY THIS AFTERNOON, IMPROVING TO A MODERATE BREEZE, THEN A
GENTLE BREEZE TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY AT 2-4 FT OUT 20 NM, UP TO
5 FT OUT 60 NM, WHICH WILL ALSO IMPROVE TOWARDS 2-3 FT BY
TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENTLE BREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARDS THE SSW. SEAS HOLD STEADY AT
1-3 FT. FROM THERE, GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE UP TOWARDS A
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING SEAS TO KICK UP TO 3-4 FT OUT 20 NM, UP TO 5 FT OUT 60
NM. WEAK FRONT TRIES TO PUSH IN SUNDAY, WHERE WINDS WILL GO
WESTERLY BRIEFLY BEFORE BACK TO SOUTHERLY, IMPROVING TO A GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZE. SEAS IMPROVE TO 2-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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