964
FXUS62 KILM 051140
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM EST. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 8 AM EST THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, MARINE FOG, AND NIGHTTIME FOG
OVER LAND WILL DEFINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, MARINE FOG, AND NIGHTTIME FOG
OVER LAND WILL DEFINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS HAS LONG BEEN DISCUSSED BY NOW WE ARE LOCKED INTO A PATTERN
MUCH MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SUMMERTIME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
BERMUDA AT THE SURFACE AND A MID LEVEL HIGH DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
TO ITS WEST THE THEME THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORMER WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY, THE LATTER
ACTING AS A CONVECTIVE LID TO KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THEREAFTER THE MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES A BIT
OFFSHORE, WEAKENING OUR CONVECTIVE LID AND ALSO ALLOWING FOR
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTENING. QPF/CONVECTIVE SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE
HINT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ESPECIALLY THE SEABREEZE THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES SO WARM
PERHAPS INLAND LOCALES CAN ALSO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
AND WARRANT RAIN CHANCES EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF THE SEABREEZE-
INDUCED LIFT.
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING AN AXIS INTO THE SE US WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND EACH NIGHT WILL REACH 90-100 PERCENT RH
VALUES AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG. MOST OF THE
UPCOMING NIGHTS WILL BE CANDIDATES FOR DFAS.
UNLIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED RADIATIVE FOG, MARINE FOG WILL BE PRESENT
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN AN ADVECTIVE MANNER AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR
IS COOLED TO SATURATION BY TRAVERSING THE CHILLY NEARSHORE WATERS.
THIS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND
REPRESENT A VISIBILITY-RELATED HAZARD TO BOATERS BUT IT WILL ALSO
LEAD TO FORECAST HEADACHES IN TWO WAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST WHERE FOG AND STRATUS
COULD SEVERELY TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE SECOND WILL BE A NARROW
STRIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ELSE WHERE
THE UNINHIBITED SEABREEZE DRAWS THIS COOL AND SATURATED MARINE
LAYER INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST TERMINALS. A MIX OF
SEA AND RADIATION FOG IS ALSO IMPACTING THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED BY MID OR LATE MORNING AS FOG LIFTS TO BROKEN STRATUS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.
FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SIMILAR, SO
TAFS REFLECT A GENERALIZED FORECAST WHICH TRIES TO CAPTURE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LAST NIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF FOG COULD BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS AND SEA FOG COULD ADVECT INTO THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD SEA FOG ACROSS OUR
NEARSHORE WATERS AS OF MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 13Z TO COVER THIS THREAT. THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 13Z, BUT MIXING MAY
THIN THE FOG SUFFICIENTLY TO AMEND THE EXISTING ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTERMITTENT SEA FOG THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL BRING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH IT'S QUITE EARLY, THE SUMMER
DOLDRUMS ARE HERE FOR NOW. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCKED
IN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO BIG DIFFERENCES THOUGH
WHEN COMPARING THIS PATTERN VS WERE IN IN PLACE IN JULY. FIRST,
THE HIGH WILL BE ELONGATED WEST-EAST RATHER THAN BEING MORE
CIRCULAR. THIS IS BECAUSE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
WILL STILL BE DRAGGING LOWS AND FRONTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LEADING TO THE HIGH'S LATITUDINAL DEFORMATION. THE END RESULT
LOCALLY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN
NORMALLY EXPERIENCED IN THE SUMMER. AND WHILE THIS WILL BE GOOD
NEWS FOR MARINERS THE SECOND DIFFERENCE, NOT SO MUCH. VERY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FLOWING OVER OUR NEARSHORE WATERS THAT ARE
STILL IN THE LOW 50S WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT, LONG FUSE
SEA FOG EVENT. RESOLVING THE TIMES AND LOCATIONS OF WHEN/WHERE
THE FOG WILL BE THICKEST AND IN NEED OF A MARINE DFA IS
DIFFICULT BUT WE DO EXPECT THAT MANY HEADLINES/STATEMENTS WILL
BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS IT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
FALLS UNDER THE PURVIEW OF SHORTER TERM GUIDANCE WITH EACH
PASSING DAY. AS FAR AS SEAS, THE EAST- WEST ELONGATION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CHANNEL MOST WAVE AND SWELL ENERGY TOWARDS
FL/BAHAMAS WITH JUST ENOUGH OF BOTH ROUNDING IT'S WESTERN
PERIPHERY FOR A GENERAL STATIC 3-4 FT FORECAST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ099-
105>110.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ032-033-
039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...21
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/21
DISCUSSION...MBB/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MBB/21
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