849
FXUS62 KILM 150732
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
332 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED. AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED
BELOW FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL COME BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL COME
BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DESCRIPTION...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE THIS
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT DROPPING
PCP WATER VALUES AND DEWPOINT TEMPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE COAST IT WILL STALL. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER NC ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND MAY SEE A POP UP SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE LATER
TODAY, CLOSER TO THE COAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
AN INCH ACROSS INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95.
SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS JUST ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES, BUT THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS (105+ DEGREES) AS LOWER
DEWPOINT AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW. AFTER A LULL IN THE HEAT
TUE/WED THE HEAT SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES REACHING 105+ DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
DESCRIPTION...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT POSITIVE
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING EVENING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME GUIDANCE WAS ALLUDING TO CIGS INVOF 1KFT LATE TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOWER CLOUDS, BUT KEPT ANY LOW
CEILINGS IN A TEMPO OR JUST KEPT THEM SCT TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT,
MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ILM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT INDIVIDUAL TAF LOCATIONS IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK BUT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL STALL LEAVING W TO
NW FLOW OVER THE LAND AND SW FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
WORSEN AGAIN STARTING THU AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A GOOD BET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE BEYOND 20 NM, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ
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