094
FXUS62 KILM 311732
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING NORTH, MOVING ACROSS OUR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER, PARTICULARLY FOR CAPE
FEAR REGION. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK,
EVENTUALLY ERODING AROUND MIDDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASED DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR, HIGH TEMPS
WILL REACH AROUND 80F THIS AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TODAY. QLCS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS. OUR FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS LA AND WESTERN MS ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND 500MB SHORTWAVE. THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL REACH I-95 LATE AFTERNOON (AROUND 5-6PM), POTENTIALLY
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST DUE TO STABLE MARINE LAYER AND
DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STRONG WINDS, AND POSSIBLY HAIL, WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST OVERLAP BETWEEN SURFACE BASED CAPE AND
ELEVATED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING TROUGH. LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD, BUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY,
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER BY THEN. CLEARING SKIES AND DROPPING
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL BE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AROUND I-95
AND AROUND 60F ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
EXPECTED.
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT START TO CHANGE,
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM FRONT. IT STARTS TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE LAND, INTRODUCING MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.
WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SC PEE DEE REGION.
BUT WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OFFSHORE, IT'LL BE HARD TO OVERCOME
THE SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS EASILY HIT THE LOWER 80S INLAND, MID 70S AT
THE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GET READY TO SKIP SPRING AND GO STRAIGHT INTO MID-TO-LATE JUNE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER LOW QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA.
THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SNEAKS
UNDER THE NORTHERLY LOW AND PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS.
WHILE THE HIGH ITSELF STILL REMAINS OFFSHORE, THE HEIGHTS
INCREASE RAPIDLY. THIS SPELLS OUT NOT A WARM, BUT A HOT
FORECAST. MID-TO- UPPER 80S THURSDAY QUICKLY BECOME THE LOWER
90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY INLAND (LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES). TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE THREATENED HERE. DON'T
FORGET THE HUMIDITY TOO, WITH STAGNANT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 60S. A FRONT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, AND WITH NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THERE'S REALLY NO ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA. HAPPY SUMMER IN APRIL. MERCY.
FRONT TRIES TO FINALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH BETTER SUPPORT BY
SUNDAY, WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED. LOWS
EACH NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE COASTAL SITES MOSTLY MVFR WITH SOME NOTED BREAKS INLAND
(VFR). THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING
ACROSS THE COAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS A BAND OF TSRA/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. PATCHY SEA FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WITH
WATER TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 60S IT WILL BE TOUGH. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY
FROM SE SWELL. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, MOVING OFF THE COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE STORMS. LAGGING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS STARTING TO TURN
WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 4-5 FT TONIGHT FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY
SWELL COMPONENT, WITH CONDITIONS LOOKING TO REMAIN SUB-SCA FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIABLE WINDS ON TUESDAY BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS. THE VEERING TREND
CONTINUES, BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY, AND THEN SSW BY FRIDAY.
SEAS HOLD PRETTY STEADY AT 2-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...IGB/VAO
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