097
FXUS62 KILM 081825
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z FORECASTS. KEY MESSAGES
LARGELY UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM THE SC LOWCOUNTRY
TODAY BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
2) DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO EXCEED
105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM
THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TODAY BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A SLUG OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE
OFFSHORE HAS LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD SINK SOUTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, ALLOWING VEERING MID LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS AND INCREASING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
CLIMB BACK TOWARD 2.0 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD RISE EVEN
FURTHER ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR
THE HEAT INDEX TO EXCEED 105 DEGREES.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SHOULD PUSH OUR 850 MB TEMPS ABOVE +20C EACH DAY BEGINNING
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE 93-97 DEGREE RANGE.
ADD IN SEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND IT'S
POSSIBLE HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 105 DEGREES BEGINNING TUESDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERALL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE SEA BREEZE AFFECTED AREAS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG TONIGHT, MAINLY INLAND. FOR NOW,
FORECAST SHOWS 5 MILES AT FLO/LBT BUT VSBYS LATE TONIGHT COULD
END UP BEING LOWER. AFT 12Z, SHOWERS COULD AFFECT SC COASTAL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD FUEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN EVEN LARGER
COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY. HOTTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND, AFFECTING THE KFLO
AND KLBT AIRPORTS.
MARINE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR US OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND CAPE FEAR, CLOSE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT TODAY'S COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH. THE HIGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO WINDS VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEED.
WE ALSO SHOULD EXPERIENCE A LARGER NUMBER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
MARINE...31
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