253
FXUS62 KILM 091042
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME HEAT WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
NC AND NORTHEAST SC, WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 110. HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 109.
ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR UPCOMING HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SOUTH-
FACING BEACHES. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH THE ISSUANCE
OF THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1)THE HEATWAVE WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DOMINATE DURING
THE NEAR TERM.
2)RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
3)HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT SOUTH-FACING BEACHES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE HEATWAVE WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
DOMINATE DURING THE NEAR TERM.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A LID ON THE
MAJORITY OF ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED
TSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE ACROSS
COASTAL NORTHEAST SC. MID TO UPPER 90S WILL DOMINATE TODAYS
HIGHS WITH 100+ DEGREE READINGS STILL POSSIBLE. EVEN THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS. SOME
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS
INLAND WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES WITHIN THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIS BREACHING EXTREME
HEAT WARNING THRESHOLDS. THIS SAME SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT FRI
AND SAT WITH A NOTED FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL STILL
OBSERVE HEAT ADV THRESHOLDS BOTH FRI AND SAT BUT MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES. THIS IN PART TO AN EVOLVING
INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT WITH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LIKELY HELPING TO HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER PATTERN CHANGE STARTING SUN WILL HELP AID IN DROPPING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD, CROSSING THE AREA SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLOW TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH THRU MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LATE
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT, EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THIS PATTERN CHANGE INVOLVES THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS PLAGUED THE EAST FOR QUITE SOME TIME, THAT WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION AND PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
CONSIDERABLY. WITH PLENTY OF ANTECEDENT HEAT AND MOISTURE, THE
SETUP SHOULD BE QUITE STORMY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY ON THE STRONG/SEVERE SIDE. TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP
CONSIDERABLY WITH RESIDUAL LOW 90S SUN FOR HIGHS FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY 80S FOR HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT SOUTH-FACING
BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND WEEKEND TIMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASED BEACH ATTENDANCE - BEACHGOERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
WATER WHERE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS THE SWELL WEAKENS, AND CURRENTLY A MODERATE
RIP RISK IS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY FOR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND 6-8 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS. WINDS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY AT MYR/CRE DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AFTER 16Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER NE SC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EACH MORNING. THREAT FOR
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SAT. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO MON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
PIEDMONT TROF TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY THRU SAT.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CENTERED
WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. AS A
RESULT, LOOKING AT INCREASING SW-WSW WINDS TODAY THRU SAT. WINDS
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE FREQUENT 25+ KT
GUSTS ACROSS THE ILM NC COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS FRI THRU
EARLY SAT. IN ADDITION, LOOKING AT THE THREAT FOR 6+ FT SHORT
PERIOD WAVES, AGAIN ACROSS THE ILM NC COASTAL AND ESPECIALLY
BOTH ILM NC AND SC OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH THIS SAID, SCA REMAINS
POSSIBLE FOR THE ILM NC COASTAL WATERS FRI THRU EARLY SAT. A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD, WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SUN.
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SUN INTO EARLY MON.
WINDS AFTER FROPA WILL VEER TO THE NE RESULTING IN TEMPORARY
VICTORY AT SEA CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NE WIND HAS TIME TO WORK ON
THE LOCAL WATERS. NE WINDS WILL HAVE AN INITIAL SURGE BUT THEN
TAPER BACK SOME.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-059.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ054>056-058.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/VAO
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/VAO
DISCUSSION...DCH/VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH
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