469  
FXUS62 KILM 181732  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
132 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS BERMUDA  
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE  
CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY COULD BRING INCREASING  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY  
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEAT COULD RETURN LATE  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
CU FIELDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND  
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HREF INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL  
TRAIL OFF AFTER 02Z. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID  
70S, EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF  
THE SE COAST MAINTAINS WARM AND MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  
SYNOPTIC FEATURES SATURDAY REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY AS A  
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE SE CONUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES  
TO POINT TO WIDESPREAD MID 90S SATURDAY, AND COMBINED WITH  
MID/UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS, WILL NECESSITATE ANOTHER CWA-WIDE HEAT  
ADVISORY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY TOUCH 110 DEGREES IN A FEW  
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO,  
THEREFORE NOT REQUIRING AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. THE MID-LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL KEEP WEAK RIPPLES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT JUST TO  
OUR NORTH, ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR TSTMS. ACROSS OUR CWA,  
POPS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20% ACROSS NE SC TO 40%  
ACROSS SE NC.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON SATURDAY  
NIGHT SHOULD RETROGRADE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE  
MONDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY, LIKELY NECESSITATING ANOTHER DAY  
OF HEAT ADVISORIES WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO REACH  
105-108 DEGREES. SUNDAY'S SEABREEZE FRONT AND THE PIEDMONT  
TROUGH INLAND SHOULD BE TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN AIRMASS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE BUT  
WITH RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL HUMIDITY.  
 
BY MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW  
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION, AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH NEW  
ENGLAND SHOULD HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE  
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD  
AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY, LIKELY TRIGGERING  
YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS  
THE FRONT MEETS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PLUS IMPULSES ARRIVING  
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
WHILE WE'RE NOT IN A DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC, IT'S  
POSSIBLE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
THESE STORMS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY  
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD POKE NORTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, PERHAPS SETTLING BACK TOWARD  
THE GULF COAST AGAIN BY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD  
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO REACH 85-90 BOTH DAYS WITH  
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES ONLY IN THE 90S. UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW  
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLS MEANS I'LL HAVE TO  
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST  
TUESDAY DESPITE THE GFS SHOWING THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AND MUCH  
MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  
 
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY WASH OUT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST  
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS  
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER OUR SURFACE WINDS FROM  
NORTHEAST TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH HUMIDITY CREEPING BACK  
UP EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY IT'S POSSIBLE WE'LL HAVE A RETURN TO THE  
SAME AIRMASS WE'RE IN NOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HEAT  
INDICES CREEPING BACK UP TO THE 105 TRIGGER FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.  
 
NOTE: ALTHOUGH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING  
FROM THE OLD FRONT AND MOVING ONSHORE THURSDAY, THERE IS NO  
SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION AMONG THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE PEE DEE REGION AND NE  
SC MAY IMPACT KFLO/KLBT/KMYR/KCRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MVFR  
CIG/VIS AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT. CONVECTION WILL WANE  
AFTER 02Z AND SHOULD REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS  
WILL BEGIN TO POP UP BY 16Z OR SO SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW  
TO INCLUDE IF TAFS AT THIS STAGE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THROUGH SATURDAY...SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST AND A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH  
ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-  
15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS, PARTICULARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS  
UP A BIT. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THIS  
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, AND WILL TICK UP A BIT NORTH OF CAPE  
FEAR LATE SATURDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT  
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING NC.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE  
WILL MAINTAIN A HUMID SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE  
BEACHES DURING THE DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER MONDAY'S DAYTIME  
SEABREEZE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT FROM  
INITIALLY PUSHING OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WE WILL NEED TO  
WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT CLOSELY FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING  
IMPACTS FOR MARINERS. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD FINALLY PUSH  
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE SPEED OF THESE  
NORTHEAST WINDS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH - THE 12Z GFS MODEL  
HAS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDING OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOWS OUR NE WINDS AVERAGING 20 KNOTS  
WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.  
 
THERE SHOULD BE A SMALL 8 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH US THROUGH THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DOMINANT WAVES, HOWEVER, WILL CONSIST  
OF A 5 SECOND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,  
THEN A 5-6 SECOND NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVE TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. COMBINED SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET -- ALTHOUGH  
HIGHER SEAS COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IF THE GFS MODEL  
IS CORRECT WITH ITS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-  
105>110.  
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-  
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...TRA  
NEAR TERM...CRM  
SHORT TERM...TRA  
LONG TERM...TRA  
AVIATION...CRM  
MARINE...ILM  
 
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