766
FXUS62 KILM 241912
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
212 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REGARDING WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WINTER STORM THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY AROUND AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WINTER STORM THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY AROUND AND WEST OF THE I-
95 CORRIDOR.
COLD AND VERY DRY AIR HAS SEEPED SOUTHWARD TODAY ON NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS IS APPROXIMATELY 2000 FT
THICK AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WILL GRADUALLY GET THINNER AND
THINNER WITH TIME. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT IT
ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES OVER THE COLD AIR MASS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT, AND WITH STRATIFORM
PRECIP BEING GENERATED WHERE AIR TEMPS WILL BE AS HIGH AS THE 40S TO
LOW-50S, IT WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AS A LIQUID TO THE GROUND. THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND HOW LONG IT TAKES
THE INITIAL RAIN FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR MASS TO MOISTEN IT UP AND
REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE DURATION OF ICE
ACCRETION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. ULTIMATELY, PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASES, ALTHOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95 THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM
UP ENOUGH TO END THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT, EXCEPT IN LOCALLY COLDER
SPOTS.
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ABOVE THE COLD WEDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ERODE AWAY AT IT FROM THE TOP
DOWN, CAUSING IT TO THIN UNTIL IT IS NO MORE. NEAR THE COAST, THIS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE INLAND AREAS HAVE A LESSER CHANCE
OF SEEING THIS. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR, A RAPID WARM UP INTO THE
50S AND SUDDEN INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
EITHER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A FEW COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS
IN THE TEENS, ESPECIALLY INLAND. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE A VERY
GOOD BET AT LEAST MONDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING THU NIGHT FOR WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES OR
LESS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD THE NC SANDHILLS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS A WINTER STORM ENTERS THE REGION, EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AS STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
BRING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OVERTOP THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE
GROUND. MVFR CIGS HAVE ARRIVED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AT THE COAST AND
THIS MAY VERY WELL CARRY INTO THE INLAND ZONES, ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE PROGRESS OF THESE LOWER CIGS BENEATH THE MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE OPTED FOR A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THESE
CIGS INLAND RELATIVE TO GUIDANCE, BUT THIS MAY BE TOO SLOW STILL.
THE CONFIDENCE FOR STEADY PRECIP OCCURRING TONIGHT IS LOWEST NEAR
THE COAST, WITH BETTER CHANCES INLAND, ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE MAY END
UP SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF PERIODS OF FZRA THAN STEADY FZRA. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND MAY
DIP INTO THE LIFR RANGE DURING THE MORNING AS THE COLD WEDGE THINS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AMID STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO LLWS COMMENCING AROUND MIDDAY UNTIL THE COLD WEDGE
ERODES AWAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SLACKENING AFTER LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY JUST OFF
THE COAST LATE IN THE NIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW
DURING THE MORNING AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BACKING AS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WEDGE IS ERODED AWAY. EVENTUALLY,
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME DOMINANT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS PEAK THIS
EVENING IN THE 5-9 FT RANGE BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE WINDS
COME DOWN, ALTHOUGH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE 6 FT THRESHOLD.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 KT
AND SEAS UP TO NEAR 9 FT UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS. SIMILAR SITUATION AGAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ017-023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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