343
FXUS62 KILM 081411
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1011 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CANCELED FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN.
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND,
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN.
ALL EYES ARE ON TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE QUESTIONS REMAIN AROUND ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY,
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE GULF WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF THE
AREA, ITS ATTENDANT DRY AIR ALOFT LEADS TO THE QUESTION OF HOW LONG
IT WILL TAKE FOR RAINFALL TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. TYPICALLY, THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPS MEASURABLE RAIN AT BAY FOR LONGER
THAN MODELS SUGGEST, WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF SATURDAY'S DAYTIME
DRY, EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
(WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES). THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE TRACK AND SPEED OF ISAIAS WILL
INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME, WITH A FASTER AND FURTHER EAST TRACK LEADING
TO RAIN STARTING EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
BEYOND THE START TIME OF RAIN, AMOUNTS ALSO CARRY LIMITED CONFIDENCE
DEPENDING ON WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SET UP. IN GENERAL, IT
APPEARS COASTAL AREAS ARE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST TOTALS, MAINLY IN
THE RANGE OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHILE
INLAND AREAS SEE LESS, MAINLY AROUND 0.5-1.5 INCHES. THE PRESENCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 2-
2.5", LEADS TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR BANDS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS, MAINLY FOCUSED FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHERE THESE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCUR, RAINFALL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 4-6" ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINBANDS TO STAY
OVER THE SAME AREA FOR MULTIPLE HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING ARE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BOTH HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON TIMING OF THE MARINE IMPACTS.
LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN AT
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES BEFORE
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS PILE WATER UP AGAINST THE COAST, BRINGING THE
THREAT TO ALL BEACHES STARTING WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A VAGUE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THEY TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM IN
THE EVENING. HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, OUTSIDE OF
ANY PATCHY/SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS ARE LIKELY STARTING EITHER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS WORKS DOWNWARD. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN HEAVY RAIN, MAINLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
MARINE
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN ISAIAS MOVING UP
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF, AND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL START INCREASING
LATE FRIDAY AND HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS GUSTS EXCEED 25 KTS AND SEAS BUILD TO
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD PEAK LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUN
AFTN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. SO WHILE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE
THIS WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ
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