158
FXUS62 KILM 021008
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST MESSAGING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SE NC AND NE SC. LOOKING
AHEAD...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAIN AMOUNTS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS THE EXTENT OF HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS STARTING MON NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1)HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A FRONT WAVERS IN THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A FRONT WAVERS IN
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT KEEPING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE LIKELY INLAND TODAY WITH
HUMIDITY SLOWLY CONTINUING TO INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND
LINGERS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. TRENDS FAVOR A DRIER MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST
FORECAST RAIN CHANCES IS LOW. AT LEAST THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER AN INCH, WHICH WOULD BE VERY WELCOME
CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT IN MOST AREAS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES DUE
TO PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS THRU ABOUT
13-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THEREAFTER WITH ONLY A
LOW CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW CLOUDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.
06Z SAT THRU TUE: MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SAT) MAINLY STARTING SAT AFTN THRU EARLY MON AS A
FRONT STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
END LATER MON, LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER UNTIL DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. VFR IS LIKELY TUE ALONG WITH A DECENT NE BREEZE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
MARINE
RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOVES A WAVERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH LEADING TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE A PRETTY GOOD BET STARTING MON NIGHT AND/OR EARLY TUE
WITH GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
THE LATEST WIND/WAVE FORECAST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/21
MARINE...RJB
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