980
FXUS62 KILM 121041
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR TODAY AND ARE FORECASTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY
1). AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
HOURS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND/OR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
2) SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK,
WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM.
3) WARM WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND/OR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
A WEAK FRONT, CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NC, WILL SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND A SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER OH/KY WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTHWARD INTO MONDAY. THESE
TWO MECHANISMS, COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT INSTABILITY, WILL FIRE
OFF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE SHEAR MAY BE LIMITED OVERALL AND
MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT, PWATS OF 2-2.5" WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WET MICROBURSTS AND RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF ISOLATED
FLOODING WITH STORMS LATER TODAY WITH MEAN WIND OF 10 KTS OR
LESS. EVEN WITH EXTREME DROUGHT PRESENT FOR MUCH OF SE NC AND NE
SC, ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS, HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH ANY SLOW
MOVING STORMS MAY STILL LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY FOR
LOW-LYING AREAS OR PLACES THAT SAW RAIN THE PAST TWO DAYS. REFS
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A 40-50% OF 2+ INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES.
WORTH NOTING, FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE IN THE LOW
90S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH TRIPLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, FORECASTED CONDITIONS
ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (HI >= 105F) AND THEREFORE NO
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY - FIRST TIME WITHOUT A HEAT
ADVISORY SINCE JULY 1ST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WORK WEEK, WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO STALLED FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
THE FRONT IS FORECASTED TO STALL SOUTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL MON AND TUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S - A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE RECENT HEAT WAVE, HOWEVER
BRIEF.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WARM WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
WARMING TREND RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND FORECASTED TEMPS ARE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
WHILE IT'S TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT POSSIBLE ADVISORIES, THE NWS
HEATRISK MAP IS HIGHLIGHTING A MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR OUR AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT START MIDDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED TSRA
WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 22Z AND 3-4Z - TIMING
WILL BE FINE TUNED WITH SUBSEQUENT TAFS. AS STORM CHANCES
DECREASE TONIGHT, LOW STRATUS IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...LOW STRATUS FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY INLAND TERMINALS, MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE VARIED
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING. SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH MONDAY, SSW WIND WAVE MIXING WITH
SE SWELL. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY DUE TO
STALLED FRONT. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH NE WINDS TUES SHIFTING TO OFFSHORE FLOW WED,
AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. WSW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS, WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS FOR 20-60NM COASTAL WATERS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...VAO
DISCUSSION...VAO
AVIATION...MAS/VAO
MARINE...VAO
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