160
FXUS62 KILM 242350
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
2) MINOR DROUGHT RELEIF LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXPECT BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST US TONIGHT, A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS REACHING 15-20MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH OR SO FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S WILL
ENSURE IT DOES NOT FEEL AS CHILLY AS ON MONDAY. REFER TO THE
MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ANTICIPATED
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR DROUGHT RELEIF LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...A SHEARED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EAST CROSSES THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
BEING DRIVEN BY THIS FEATURE, WHICH NOW APPEARS TO CLEAR
LANDMASS BY LATER FRIDAY (SEE BELOW WHERE COASTAL WATERS COULD
TAKE LONGER). REGARDING RAINFALL, THERE IS A GOOD FETCH OFF OF
THE GULF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH, NEAR CERTAIN RAIN
CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE SENSE OF EXACT TIMING
LIKELY REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CONVERSELY THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS WEAK DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE MID LEVEL VORT AS WELL
AS THERE ONLY BEING WEAK BAROCLINICITY WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ITSELF. AND WHILE QPF CAN BE A LITTLE TRICKY 3-4 DAYS
OUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST PLACES SHOULD AVERAGE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THUNDER COULD OBVIOUSLY
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT INSTABILITY IS QUITE LACKING.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS OF 5-8 KT TONIGHT
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, GUSTING UP TO ~25 KT AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. LLWS STAYS JUST
BELOW THE 30KT CRITERIA AS WINDS ALSO INCREASE ALOFT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR UNTIL THURSDAY, WHEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
RETURN DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE DRYING OUT THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST US TONIGHT, WITH WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BACKING TO
SW THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERMIT 1-3 FT SEAS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS NEARING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-25 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS (WITH SOME 30-34KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE 20NMI BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
CAPE FEAR) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS BY RISING TO
4-7 FT BY MID-AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
FROM THE EVENING ONWARD. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WIND
WAVES WITH A WEAK 1-2 FT ENE SWELL EVERY 12 SECONDS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE PERIOD STARTS WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY NEEDED SCA AS THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
CRITERIA AND A FEW 6 FT SEAS WILL BE FOUND OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
THREE ZONES. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE NEED FOR HEADLINES
BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED. THE BOUNDARY DROPS CLOSER, EASING THE
GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST, BUT IT'S TOUGH TO RULE OUT WHETHER A
FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT WAVES WILL PERSIST AS THE WEAK EASTERLY
SWELL ENERGY WON'T BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. NOT TO MENTION SOME
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE QUICKER IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH AND
LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING SOUTH GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST ZONES. BEST FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS THAT HEADLINES
WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED FRIDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
ITS POSSIBILITY IN HWO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE WELL
OFFSHORE BOUNDARY SATURDAY COULD TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WIND WAVES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS WHAT LITTLE SWELL ENERGY
WAS PRESENT DECAYS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/ABW
DISCUSSION...MBB/ABW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MBB/ABW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page