427  
FXUS62 KILM 192033  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
333 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING  
COLDER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT  
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A  
COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO  
SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING. COLD, DRY CANADIAN HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR AREA, CURRENTLY BETWEEN MYR AND  
CRE ORIENTED WSW TO ENE, STALLING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LINGERING RAIN  
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS  
BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 40  
DEGREES WITH CLOUDY SKIES. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH APPROACHING  
FROM THE WEST TOMORROW WILL INDUCE PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE  
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE  
SW ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA  
STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS LOW  
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TOMORROW EVENING  
BEFORE PROPAGATING TO THE NE, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE  
NW, WE EXPECT TO SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY  
SEE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX (RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW) AFTER  
8PM FOR OUR NW AREAS AND AROUND MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE COAST. BEST  
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL OUR MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES -  
PENDER, BLADEN, AND PARTS OF ROBESON - WHERE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE  
COINCIDES WITH THE BEST MOISTURE. COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE  
EXITING MOISTURE TOWARDS MORNING, BUT GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT  
FLURRIES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE REST OF SE NC, AND PARTS  
OF NE SC, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.  
TEMPS DON'T RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-40S, WITH  
LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW  
FREEZING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE DONE BY THIS POINT AND COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE, GUSTY  
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LOW  
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL  
BE IN THE LOWER 40S, AND SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN PENDER AND  
BLADEN COUNTIES IN NC MIGHT STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 WITH READINGS IN  
THE UPPER 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS LOW ARE ROUGHLY 20 TO 25  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY  
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S, AND A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH  
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FROST BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. EARLY  
BLOOMING PLANTS FROM WARM WEATHER THE PAST 6 WEEKS WILL CONTINUE TO  
NEED PROTECTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER  
20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION  
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ALONG THE  
FRONT SUNDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE TO HEAVY  
RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE MODEL  
INSTABILITY FORECASTS DIFFER AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES  
IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT  
WITH A VFR STRATOCU CEILING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN ON  
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH RAIN MOVING BACK IN WITH THE NEXT, AND MORE  
POTENT SYSTEM APPROACHING.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ON THE STALLED FRONT  
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS THU AND INTENSIFY AS IT  
ACCELERATES ENE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRI. RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE  
TO SNOW THU NIGHT BEFORE PCPN ENDS FRI MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE  
TO VFR MIDDAY FRI, AND WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AS COLD, DRY  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TODAY THRU THU:  
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH  
EARLY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT NOW FOR NC WATERS  
AND STARTING 6PM FOR SC WATERS, THROUGH 3PM THURSDAY. A GALE  
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 3PM THURSDAY THROUGH 6PM FRIDAY FOR  
ALL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING TO  
4-6 FT, BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER TO 7-9 FT THURSDAY EVENING  
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS, PREDOMINANTLY A 7-8 SEC NE SWELL. NE WINDS  
TONIGHT AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS WILL  
INCREASE TOMORROW AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND PRESSURE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED CAA. WINDS BECOME MORE  
NORTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO SUSTAINED 25-30 KTS  
AND FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
FRI THRU MON:  
GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACH THE 6 TO  
10 FOOT RANGE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE NNE AT . 6  
TO 8 SECONDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,  
ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL ENCOUNTER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS  
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WAVES 4 TO 6 FEET WITH WIND WAVES OUT OF  
THE NORTH AT 7 SECONDS AND LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL FROM THE  
EAST AT 12 SECONDS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3  
FEET FOR SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD WELL FROM THE EAST CONTINUING,  
WITH WIND WAVES GRADUALLY REACHING NEAR 6 FEET TOWARD THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND THE NEXT CHANCES FOR HAZARDS TO SMALL  
CRAFT WITH A MIX OF ESE WELL AROUND 10 TO 12 SECONDS AS THE NEXT  
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ254-256.  
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-  
252-254-256.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DCH  
NEAR TERM...VAO  
SHORT TERM...MCK  
LONG TERM...MCK  
AVIATION...VAO  
MARINE...MCK/VAO  
 
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