968
FXUS62 KILM 020609
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
109 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF
CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY.
2) COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ALLOWS FOR A COOL START TO THE WEEK.
3) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDWEEK TO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM UNTIL
7 AM EST TUESDAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ALLOWS FOR A COOL START TO
THE WEEK.
AS WE APPROACH 1 AM EST, THE "WEDGE FRONT" IS STARTING TO ENTER THE
CAPE FEAR REGION AND NC COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST, AS SEEN
VERY CLEARLY ON RADAR AND SATELLITE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE JUST
BEGUN AT KILM, AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A THIN LAYER OF COOL AIR TO THE
REGION, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO BOOT.
EVEN AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS, GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE
PAINTING HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. NBM KEPT
THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS MUCH TOO WARM, WHICH IS PAR FOR THE COURSE.
MEMBERS OF THE HREF ARE STARTING TO SNIFF IT OUT BETTER, SO THOSE
VALUES WERE BLENDED INTO THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THINK THERE WILL BE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA,
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND NC COASTAL PLAIN
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GRAND STRAND. CAN'T
RULE OUT THE UPPER 40S IN THOSE COOLER SPOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA, AS OUTLINED BY THE NAM. DIDN'T WANT TO GO
QUITE THAT EXTREME JUST YET (SUCH THAT IT IS).
ELSEWHERE, WHILE THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD JUST MANIFEST IN LOW
CLOUD COVER, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME ISOLATED MIST OR DRIZZLE
COMES INTO PLAY THIS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NC.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDWEEK TO
THE WEEKEND.
MID LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA TUESDAY
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THOUGH IT WON'T BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG OR WELL DEFINED ESPECIALLY AT FIRST. A WARM SEASON-LIKE
PATTERN, THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS THAT ARE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. IN ADDITION TO THE WAA THE MOISTENING THAT OCCURS
WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURE-LIMITING DEWPOINTS THAT COULD FOSTER
NIGHTTIME LOWS THAT ARE EVEN MORE ELEVATED ABOVE CLIMO, 20
DEGREES IN SOME CASES. WITH DEWPOINTS SO HIGH WE COULD BE SET UP
FOR A LONG DURATION SEA FOG EVENT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SHUNT ANY DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TRIGGER PRECIPITATION WELL TO
OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR TO OPEN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, FOR NOW. CAD WEDGE FRONT IS
INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST, JUST MAKING IT TO KILM A
LITTLE WHILE AGO AT 0520Z. SHOULD BE AT KLBT PRETTY MUCH RIGHT AT
06Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH IT. LOW CEILINGS AREN'T A FACTOR JUST YET,
BUT WILL COME INTO PLAY WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, ALSO
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. KILM/KLBT PROBABLY
DEALING WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS BY 08-09Z, HITTING THE OTHER
TERMINALS BY 10-12Z. THESE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STABILIZE TO MORE CONSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS BY 15-16Z AT THE LATEST,
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST....FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. FROM THERE, MAY SOME
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EACH NIGHT DUE TO FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM UNTIL
7 AM EST TUESDAY. CAD WEDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST,
WHICH WILL BRING A STIFF NORTHEASTERLY WIND THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS
MAY GO UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY BEFORE NOON EST TODAY.
SEAS AT 1-2 FT FOR NOW, BUT WILL GRADUALLY ESCALATE TO 4-6 FT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ON TUESDAY THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM BEING CENTERED OVER LAND TO BEING CENTERED
OFFSHORE. IT WILL REMAIN LOCATED THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON. THIS ALSO
WEAKENS THE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHT,
THE 5 FOOTERS DROPPING OUT. DESPITE THE GRADIENT REMAINING WEAK A
VERY LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE RESULTING SWELL ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TOWARDS FL/BAHAMAS BUT JUST ENOUGH WILL ROUND THE HIGH TO
KEEP SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE WITH INCREASING PERIODS TO 8
OR 9 SECONDS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 50S. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
PROLONGED SEA FOG.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/IGB
DISCUSSION...MBB/IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...ILM
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