901
FXUS62 KILM 132242
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY 1-2 DEGREES INLAND
AND BY 2-3 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. UNCERTAINLY REMAINS LARGE
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE INCOMING CANADIAN COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS FOR A THE SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST.
2) UNSEASONABLE HEAT MAY BREAK RECORD HIGHS AT WILMINGTON AND
MYRTLE BEACH MONDAY.
3) A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE
COAST.
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE FRONT OVER
BRUNSWICK/SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTIES AND THE SYNOPTIC
WESTERLY WIND IS KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE
FEAR AREA. IT'S POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD APPEAR
HERE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASINGLY WARM/STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INTERFERING WITH THIS PROCESS.
AFTER DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY EVENING MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
DESPITE GOOD CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD HAMPER COVERAGE. THERE'S
LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z CAMS AND THE NEW RRFS CONCERNING
SHOWER LOCATION OR CHANCES MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSEASONABLE HEAT MAY BREAK RECORD HIGHS AT
WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 90S ONE LAST TIME MONDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
LEAVING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WILL HOLD THE SEABREEZE BACK AND ALLOW HOT AIR TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO THE BEACHES. OUR FORECAST HIGH OF 94 IN
WILMINGTON WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET BACK IN 2010, AND OUR
FORECAST HIGH OF 91 AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD
SET BACK IN 2020. FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON SHOULD REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF THEIR RECORDS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 INLAND, WITH SOME 101-103
READINGS POSSIBLE WITHIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
A REFRESHING SURGE OF COOLER, DRIER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S, BUT THE REAL CHANGE WILL BE
APPARENT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST, FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 60S MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUR FORECAST LOW TUESDAY NIGHT IN WILMINGTON IS 64, THE COOLEST
IN OVER 3 MONTHS!
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG
TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTN AT KILM BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE,
WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS MONDAY EVENING AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY IN A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE PUSHING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT EASTWARD. SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS
SHOULD VEER NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE
AREA MONDAY BETWEEN 8 PM MONDAY AND 2 AM TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY THE STRONGEST CANADIAN
HIGH, AROUND 1030 MB, WE'VE SEEN SINCE LAST SPRING. THE SURGE OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25
KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS
PAINT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NWS CHARLESTON
WE'LL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY THAT FAR SOUTH JUST YET GIVEN THE
MORE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT. DIRECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/MAS
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TRA
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