831
FXUS62 KILM 301038
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED.
PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 0.5, 0.75", AND
1" HAVE INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
2) THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THE NEXT 2 MID TO LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.
DISCUSSION
.KEY MESSAGE 1: BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TRACKS
EASTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHILE A SHARPENING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THESE ARE FORECAST TO PHASE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WHILE
IT LIFTS BACK TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. A CONSOLIDATED AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD EMERGE AND ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE NC
COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN
WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ANN EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A HIGH CHANCE OF
70% OR GREATER FOR EVENT TOTALS TO REACH AT LEAST 0.5" ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A 45-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.75", AND
A 30-50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1.0". QPF CLUSTERING TOOLS INDICATE
EVENT TOTALS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 1.5-2.5" IN A NARROW STRIPE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHICH SEE RAIN
THE LONGEST AND WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN
MAY OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY IS HIGH. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS IS
MODERATE AS THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT IT
TRACKS ALONG WILL MODULATE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND WHERE THE STRIPE
OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SET UP. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TOOLS HAVE SHOWN A
GENERAL TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW'S TRACK, WHICH RESULTS IN
GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS OVERALL, A NUDGE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD CHANGE
HOW MUCH FALLS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THEREAFTER BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AROUND OR ON THURSDAY.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT 2 MID TO LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.
LATEST GAGE FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER HAS IT
REACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS (5.5 FT MLLW) DURING
THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WELL AS FRIDAY EVENINGS. AT
THIS TIME BOTH EVENING FORECASTS REACH 5.7 FT MLLW. THIS WILL
EFFECT LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIVER FROM DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING TO OCCUR IN GENERALLY A 3 HOUR WINDOW CENTERED AROUND
HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THU EVENING IS AT 952PM AND FRI EVENING
AT 1032PM
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VSBY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTORM LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS AN
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS WHILE A SFC COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. VFR TO
DOMINATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE END OF THE 24 HR PERIOD.
NW-N WINDS 4 TO 8 KT WILL VEER TO NE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
SINKS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MAY GO CALM THIS EVENING BEFORE
THAT NE SURGE OCCURS AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR EARLY FRI WILL SUCCUMB TO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG IT AND PUSHES OUT TO SEA. LOOKING AT MAINLY STRATIFORM
RAINS AND LOW CEILINGS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY FRI NIGHT THRU SAT
EVENING. VFR RETURNS LATE SAT NIGHT THRU MON
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD, WILL PUSH INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK AND THRU THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BY LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND NOON. SW WINDS 10-15 KT, EXCEPT
15-20 KT OFFSHORE, WILL BECOME NNW-N 10-15 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING WITH A NNE-NE SURGE OF 15 TO 20 KT
WINDS WITH PERIODIC 25 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY. OTHER ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BROAD BRUSH THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN SURF CITY AND MASONBORO INLET DURING THESE PRE-
DAWN HRS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT
EXCEPT SOME 5 FOOTERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY,
EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KTS OR SO TO CONTINUE VEERING
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. A FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT TOWARDS THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE AND BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS
TRACK ALONG IT. INITIALLY EASTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY, ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON THE
FRONT'S POSITION, EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 20-60NMI ZONES MAY SEE
SOUTHEAST WINDS INSTEAD. ON SATURDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AND BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW
WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY.
SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT ON FRIDAY WILL TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE BEFORE
RISING AGAIN AS WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY, PEAKING IN THE
2-5 FT RANGE LATE ON SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 1-2 FT RANGE. WHILE WIND WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM INITIALLY, A NE SWELL WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 9 SEC WILL CONTRIBUTE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/ABW
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