973
FXUS62 KILM 090544
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE FOR TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK IS INCREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...REMAINS OF A WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN LESS DEFINED TODAY. THE FRONT
AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
KICK OFF AFTERNOON STORMS, AS WILL THE SEA BREEZE. MIXED SIGNALS
FROM THE ENVIRONMENT CONCERNING STORM POTENTIAL. WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE BOTH ENHANCE CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS,
HOWEVER STILL PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LAPSE RATES ARE POOR.
WHILE A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP, COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED,
AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST SC AND POSSIBLE EXTENDING NORTH
INTO NC WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE THE ONLY REAL
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND, BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. CLOSER TO THE NC COAST NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW WILL SPREAD THE MARINE INFLUENCE INLAND, KEEPING TEMPS A
BIT COOLER AND LIMITING INSTABILITY.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. THE 5H RIDGE CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH
FRI BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION ANY DAY THIS WEEK, ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH OR
SEA BREEZE, BUT THINK AN AFTERNOON/EVENING POP HIGHER THAN 30 FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK IS ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE
THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS CONSOLIDATES ON WED BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST THU/FRI.
THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S PUSHING 100 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST(ESPECIALLY FRI). SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE SUCCESS MOVING INLAND THU
WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERA THE HEAT A BIT, ALTHOUGH WELL INLAND AREAS
WILL STILL SEE MID TO UPPER 90S. ON FRI WEST FLOW AT 925 MB WILL
HELP KEEP THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST,
ALLOWING FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. RIDGING IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL SAT, BUT NOT AS HOT AS THU/FRI.
LARGE SWATH OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THU-SAT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW HIGH THE HEAT INDEX GOES. GUIDANCE HAS A
KNOWN BIAS TOWARD HIGHER DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY THE NBM) AND THE
DEWPOINT IS MORE OF A DRIVING FACTOR IN HEAT INDEX THAN THE
TEMPERATURES. SO FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE NBM
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT BEING UTILIZED, DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE GOING TO TAKE THIS BIAS INTO ACCOUNT. SOME SITES MAY FLIRT WITH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THU/FRI/SAT, BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH, IF ANY,
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ACTUALLY HIT 105 FOR 2 HOURS. WHETHER OR
NOT AN ADVISORY ENDS UP BEING NEEDED THE KEY TAKEAWAY IS THU/FRI/SAT
WILL BE HOT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MIX OF CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL TERMINALS MVFR/IFR AND
INLAND TERMINALS VFR/MVFR. DO EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH LBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. POST FRONT STRATUS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE MIXING SETS UP AND VFR
RETURNS FOR ALL SITES. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFFECTING FLO AND POSSIBLY LBT MORE IN THE EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS. THEREFORE
HAVE NOT INCLUDED SHRA OR TSRA IN THE TAFS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK 5-10 KT VEER TO EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST.
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED STORMS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, MAINLY INLAND. OTHERWISE VFR.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY LEADS TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. POST FRONT NORTHEAST SURGE WEAKENS AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH SPEEDS DROPPING UNDER 10 KT FOR TODAY. THE HIGH THEN
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST, TAKING UP THE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH POSITION WED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN RESPONSE AND HOLDS ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND INLAND WARMING HELPS
BUMP SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT A SOLID 20KT+ IS POSSIBLE FOR 40-60
NM THU/FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT. SEAS PEAK AROUND 4 FT OFFSHORE THU/FRI,
BUT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FT
THROWN IN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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