054
FXUS62 KILM 182356 CCA
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU LATE WEEK, POSSIBLY REACHING RECORD
LEVELS INLAND FRIDAY
2) MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS STARTING SUN NIGHT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU LATE WEEK, POSSIBLY
REACHING RECORD LEVELS INLAND FRIDAY
ANOMOLOUSLY WARM LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRI, ESPECIALLY
INLAND AWAY FROM THE CHILLY ATLANTIC (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
THE RECORDS). ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, THERE IS ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN AS WELL AS THE SEA BREEZE/SEA FOG NEAR THE
COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME AREAS COULD PICK UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN SC
AND ACROSS COASTAL NC. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS STARTING SUN NIGHT
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
MON/TUE WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 50 WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 30. MON
NIGHT SHOULD BE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR 20 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GUSTY SW TO SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 03Z. CLOUDINESS
AND CONTINUED WINDS WILL SLOW COOLING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT, BUT
WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS LATE. WHILE CLOUDINESS SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG, PATCHY MIST OR FOG MAY DEVELOP WITH ELEVATED
DEW POINTS OVER RELATIVELY CHILLY GROUND ENCOURAGES FOG FORMATION.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERITY AND COVERAGE IS LOW. TEMP GROUPS AT KFLO AND
KCRE WERE RETAINED ACKNOWLEDGING LAST NIGHT'S DENSE FOG. ANY FOG OR
MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AS SW WINDS PICK UP, WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO START MIXING DOWN BY NOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR DURING THE DAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
INCREASED CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS AROUND 15-18 KTS TODAY WILL RELAX TO
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LEAD TO SEAS RISING TO
AROUND 3-5 FT BY THIS EVENING, THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 2-4
FT, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP WILL BE SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WITH A WEAKER ENE SWELL OF 1-2 FT
EVERY 11-12 SEC PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE E-SE. A STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD
TO VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH THE COOL WATER WILL LIMIT THE
WINDS, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID SCA CONDITIONS STARTING
LATE SUN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEA FOG IS ALSO A RISK INTO
EARLY SUN AS A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN,ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE
ENHANCED WINDS MUCH OF THE TIME.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR 2/20/2026...
WILMINGTON NC - KILM (81 LAST SET IN 1991)
LUMBERTON NC - KLBT (80 LAST SET IN 2018)
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC - KCRE (77 LAST SET IN 1949)
FLORENCE SC - KFLO (83 LAST SET IN 2014)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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