264
FXUS62 KILM 041804
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
104 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERALL FORECAST THINKING
WITH REGARD TO ABNORMAL WARMTH AND THE RISK FOR DENSE FOG.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A LOT LIKE SUMMER WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC
UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FRIDAY MARCH 6 THROUGH WEDNESDAY MARCH 11. THIS SIX-DAY
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LONGEST STREAK OF 80+ DEGREE WEATHER
SINCE OCTOBER 3-8 IN FLORENCE, AND SINCE SEPTEMBER 15-28 IN
LUMBERTON. VERY CHILLY NEARSHORE OCEAN WATER (LOWER 50S) SHOULD KEEP
COASTAL CITIES (WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH) IN THE 70S FOR DAILY
HIGHS, WITH ONLY 60S EXPECTED ON THE BEACHES THEMSELVES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE
EAST AND AN UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE SATISFIES TWO OF THE
CRITERIA NEEDED FOR INLAND RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. WE'VE
EXPLICITLY INCLUDED FOG IN THE FORECAST EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE FOG OR DENSE FOG WILL
REDEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AREAS OF SEA FOG OVER THE COLD NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF MARINE FOG AND LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS,
AREAS WITHIN A MILE OR SO OF THE BEACHES COULD BE AFFECTED BY
SEA FOG AT TIMES. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE FORECAST DISCUSSION
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
SUPPORTING THE FOG, DEWPOINTS IN 60-65 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL FREQUENCY
ANALYSIS OF DEWPOINTS AT ILM FROM 1981-2025 SHOWS FOR THE MARCH 1-15
PERIOD THE 95TH PERCENTILE DEWPOINT VALUE IS 61 DEGREES AND THE
99TH PERCENTILE IS 63 DEGREES F. IN FLORENCE, SC THE 95TH
PERCENTILE OVER THE SAME TIMEFRAME IS 59 DEGREES AND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE IS 63 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE AN UNUSUAL LONG-DURATION
EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO AVIATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TONIGHT AS LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINE WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
TO PRODUCE FOG. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN FOG OCCURRENCE DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF WARM DEW POINTS OVERTOP OF COOL GROUND. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOWER AS WINDS SHOULD NOT BE CALM ALL
NIGHT, WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF WIND AT 3-5 KTS AND A BATCH OF
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH EARLY IN THE NIGHT BOTH
PREVENTING AN IDEAL SETUP. IN ADDITION, WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 15-
25 KTS ANTICIPATED FROM SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET TO A THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND, THIS MAY FAVOR MORE IN THE WAY OF VERY LOW STRATUS
INSTEAD OF FOG. IN EITHER CASE, IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY TO MIX ANY RESTRICTIONS OUT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, WHERE SEA FOG MAY CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE GRAND STRAND AIRPORTS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF FOG COULD BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS AND SEA FOG COULD ADVECT INTO THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WAVES OF 2-4 FT WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY AN ESE
SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 9 SEC.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MOST IMPACTFUL PART OF THE
MARINE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE AREAS OF
SEA FOG THAT MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
THE WEATHER MAP WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE SUMMER WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
BRINGING HUMID AIR IN FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. VERY CHILLY
NEARSHORE WATER HERE (LOWER 50S F) WILL COOL THE SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF LOW
VISIBILITY IN SEA FOG. FOG WON'T EXIST THE ENTIRE TIME, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BROADLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A 10-
SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL DOMINATING THE LOCAL SEA STATE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SWELL COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FEET IN HEIGHT BY MONDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/ABW
DISCUSSION...TRA/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...TRA/ABW
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