692
FXUS62 KILM 232342
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING WELCOMED RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WELCOMED RAINFALL.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE STICKS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE GETS PUSHED IN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WORK WEEK,
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO LINGER IN THE 1.8-2.0" RANGE.
SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL GET TRIGGERED EACH AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
PUSHING INLAND BY THE EVENING AND THEN EVENTUALLY FALLING DOWN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE AIDED AT TIMES BY
SHORTWAVES SPINNING OFF OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE. THIS CREATES A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2-3 INCHES, LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS. WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT A
DROUGHT BUSTER, IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE PATTERN
WE'VE SEEN IN MONTHS. A DROUGHT "DENTER," PERHAPS.
RAINFALL COULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO SLIP INTO THE MID-LEVELS. THIS GAP
CLOSES BACK IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER INLAND ZONES IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT BOTH BOUND TO KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD QUITE
ACTIVE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL AT LEAST FEATURE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
EARLY PART OF TONIGHT WHERE THE COAST REMAINS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE EVEN
AS FLO AND LBT DEAL WITH SHOWERS LINGERING (PROBABLY NO STORMS
THOUGH) AS INSTABILITY IS SLOW TO WANE AND THE FRONT IS MUCH CLOSER
TO THE INLAND AIRPORTS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS (ALBEIT MINOR) RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS CONVERGENCE-BORNE SHOWERS MOVE ASHORE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH (AND THUS VSBY
LOWERING) AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES, AND INCREASINGLY SO INLAND AS THE
SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE BY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT VSBYS) EACH MORNING (MAINLY IN THE 08Z-
12Z TIMEFRAME AT KLBT/KFLO), AS WELL AS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS (MAINLY
IN THE AFTN/EVE).
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BENIGN, SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREVAILING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE 15 KT OR LESS, GENERALLY HIGHEST EASTERN/OFFSHORE
PORTIONS NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE
AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE. WAVES WILL MAINLY CONSIST OF 3-5 FOOT SOUTHEAST
SWELLS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE OUT
OF THE SSW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, MORE OF A MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM, VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE SW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS REMAIN LOCKED IN
AT 2-4 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, 4-5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (SANS A FEW 6 FOOTERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING).
OUTSIDE OF WIND WAVES, LOOK FOR THE MAIN SE SWELL AT 6-8
SECONDS, AND THEN A SECONDARY ENE SWELL AT 8-10 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page