071
FXUS62 KILM 142355
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO DECREASE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
RAINFALL OCCURRING ON SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FEET, BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR HAS INCREASED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR HAS
INCREASED.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING MID-DAY
SUNDAY. HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SC WITH INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN
INLAND-MOVING COASTAL TROUGH NEAR COASTAL NC/SC AS EARLY AS MID
TO LATE MORNING. BOTH AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AREA WILL LIKELY
BE THE LAST TO SEE THE CONSISTENT RADAR ECHOES. STEADIER RAIN
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN PEE DEE MORE LIKELY BY SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME
LESS UNIFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST. WHAT WAS A
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR NEARLY AN INCH OF QPF A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS DECREASED FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA. WITH HREF GUIDANCE STARTING
TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE EVENT, LPMM QPF HAS DECREASED YET AGAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS JUST
EAST, SUCH AS FLORENCE, DILLON, AND MARION HAVE DROPPED TO JUST
10%-20% FOR QPF GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES AND AROUND 50% FOR QPF
EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HERE IS AROUND 0.40
INCHES, MUCH LESS THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE SPLIT IN LIFT TO THE WEST OF I-95 AND NEAR THE COAST. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS ALSO INCREASED IN SPEED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
MODEL CYCLES, ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS MOSTLY SEEN
IN THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE DEPICTION WITH GLOBAL MODELS HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL ELSEWHERE HAS ALSO DECREASED, BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR WILMINGTON AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST NC EXCEEDING
0.50 INCHES REMAINS UPWARD OF 70%-80% WITH THE 25TH-75TH AROUND
0.60 INCHES TO 0.90 INCHES. THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST
AREAS WITHIN OUR CWA. SPREADS INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF A "FORCING GAP," BUT
GENERALLY FAVOR ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD 0.40 TO 0.75
INCHES OF QPF.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. GATHERING STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR THEN IFR LATER SUNDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST... FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MIDDAY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. VFR
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA SLIDES OFFSHORE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE
SWELL ENERGY NEAR SHORE LEAVING THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVES THE
ONLY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SEAS BUILD ON SUNDAY AS A
RESULT OF THE EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS SHOULD EXCEED 5-7
FEET BY THE EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST HAZARDOUS
DURING THE EVENING UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LATE DAY SEA
FOG IS POSSIBLE AS DEW POINTS SURGE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EXCESS
OF 6 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SC NEARSHORE WATERS AND
EARLY EVENING FOR NC NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA IS SPLIT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMETABLE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE NC
NEARSHORE WATERS ON MONDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE
MONDAY COULD EXTEND THE HAZARDOUS SEAS A BIT LONGER THAN IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE WAS LOW IN THIS REGION,
SO SOME REFINEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT COMES TO A CLOSE
ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW PRODUCING A NOTICEABLE
GRADIENT. I CARRIED THE ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH TUNES THE KNOWN NBM HIGH-WIND BIAS IN WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW.
FORECAST ADVERTISES WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15-20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED PROBS FOR THE PERIOD OVER PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED POSSIBLE, BUT WILL HOLD ON
MENTIONING ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE KNOWN BIAS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...21
DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MBB/21
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