311  
FXUS62 KILM 282332  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
632 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE GIVING  
WAY TO A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF  
THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE  
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND TEMPORARILY STALLING IN THE CAROLINAS  
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
NO CHANGES AT THE MOMENT WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  
WITH CENTER JUST TO THE NORTH, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY VEER  
AROUND TO THE NW TO N TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WITH A  
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH, AND NE TO E ON TUES AS THE  
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES  
TONIGHT WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPS DOWN BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST SPOTS  
INLAND OF THE COAST AND EVEN SOME 30S IN TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS.  
 
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES BEFORE  
BEGINNING TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND EAST, BUT  
THIS WILL BE INTO THE EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT  
WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 40 TO  
50-KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING AS IT REACHES  
THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE AVAILABLE CAPE, SO  
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA WITH AN  
ISOLATED CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THIS  
HIGH SHEAR/VERY LOW CAPE EVENT ALONG THE COAST.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE  
UPPER 50S AT THE COAST, WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60 WEST  
OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE LOWER TO MID-70S AT THE COAST. FOLLOWING  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DOMINATE LATE IN THE WEEK.  
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE  
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SUNDAY. THE  
PRIMARY ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR WILL  
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, AND PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1.0" THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ENERGY  
CROSSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE  
A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR  
SITE ON MONDAY.  
 
AT THIS TIME, ONLY LOW CHANCES OF POPS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
BUT AT THIS TIME WILL BE LESS THAN 20%.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM THE 50S ON THURSDAY, RISING TO  
AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY MID 60S.  
 
THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING INLAND TO THE UPPER  
30S AND A FEW LOW 40S AT THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOWS WILL  
WARM THROUGH THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, WITH LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN  
THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID-50S AT THE BEACH AND  
SETTLING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY NIGHTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND ENOUGH  
MIXING WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS TO KEEP FOG AT  
BAY. INFRA RED SATELLITE SHOWS ANY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD  
COVER TO THE WEST AS WELL.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,  
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT.  
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS WITH A  
PASSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BREEZY  
CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THROUGH TUESDAY, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS  
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH CENTER JUST TO OUR NORTH.  
GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND NE ON  
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST, DIMINISHING FROM  
10 TO 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT ON TUES. THIS WILL ALLOW  
SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS ON  
TUES.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE  
COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SMALL  
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT OFFSHORE  
WIND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS, OVERHEAD WINDS WILL RELAX AND VEER FROM THE NORTH TO  
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS  
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 4 TO 5  
FEET, MAINLY OFFSHORE, FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE  
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AND WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 2 TO  
4 FEET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
UPDATE...15  
NEAR TERM...RGZ  
SHORT TERM...RH  
LONG TERM...RH  
AVIATION...SHK  
MARINE...RGZ/RH  
 
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