688
FXUS62 KILM 231815
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE 20-60 NM
WATERS. ALSO ISSUED A LONGER DURATION COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
SINCE THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST OR KEY MESSAGING. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION
WAS ALSO UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF SET.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER, BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS OF DRY WEATHER,
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL PERSIST WHILE AN UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SC COAST
TODAY. OTHER THAN SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS DUE TO A NELY
FETCH THE REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK. THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COUPLED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE NE TRAJECTORY COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
APPROACH THE COAST, BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION
TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RUN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THE COAST TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
INLAND LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS. ALSO,
INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE, INITIALLY ALONG THE SE NC COAST AND LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NE SC COAST WITH
TOMORROW MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WITH EACH HIGH TIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH SURF: COULD SEE SURF HEIGHTS APPROACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THIS WEEKEND. THE WAVES COUPLED WITH HIGHER WATER LEVELS COULD
RESULT IN SOME EROSION AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR E FACING BEACHES.
MARINE: SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING
MARINE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE
MOSTLY DRY COLUMN EXPECTED. NELY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD MIXING WILL
LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE DURING SATURDAY.
18Z SAT THRU WED: VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF LOW
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT TIMES GIVEN THE LOW-
LEVEL TRAJECTORY WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING OFF THE
COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FAR OFFSHORE
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS. STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. NELY FLOW COUNTER TO THE GULF
STREAM WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP/HAZARDOUS MARITIME CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE. THE NELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND DIMINISH SOME THROUGH
MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ALWAYS SLOWER TO
IMPROVE IN NELY FETCHES THUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ106-108-
110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP
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