274
FXUS62 KILM 301028
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT MARINE HAVE BEEN UPDATED, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MESSAGE. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING TODAY'S MID-DAY HIGH TIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER.
- 2) WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT EARNEST RAIN
CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES ALONG THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER.
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, BUT HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY STILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT EARNEST
RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY, KEEPING THE
WARMING TREND AROUND. TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO
EVERY DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS AROUND 90F APPEAR POSSIBLE
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, WITH THOSE CHANCES
SOLIDIFYING MORE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (COULD POTENTIALLY BE
90-92F IN SOME SPOTS). MOISTURE PARAMETERS PICK UP AS WELL, WITH
DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE 60S, AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY IN
PARTICULAR COULD BE THE MOST HOT AND HUMID DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
THE HEAT INDEX CLIMBING UP TOWARDS 93-95 IN SOME SPOTS (IN
OCTOBER, MIND YOU).
PATTERN STARTS TO FLIP BY SATURDAY. THE HEAT RIDGE STARTS TO
PUSH OFFSHORE, WHILE A VERY BROAD TROUGH PATTERN THAT STRETCHES
FROM NEAR THE PNW ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND HELPS TO SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKS OFF THE BROAD
TROUGH AND WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER SATURDAY, BUT NOTHING APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT
AT THIS TIME. THESE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO GET A BIT MORE
BULLISH BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS PART OF THE
BROAD TROUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST AS A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM. STILL MUCH TO
DEBATE ABOUT THE TIMING AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM, ALONG
WITH WHAT KIND OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXPECT.
WHAT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT IS A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN COMING
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHERE HIGHS MAY ONLY GET INTO THE 70S. BRING
BACK A MORE LEGITIMATE FALL!
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANY PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AS THE SUN RISES. VFR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE DAY, WITH NEAR-CALM WINDS INLAND AND LIGHT SE SEA
BREEZE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VSBYS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
LOWER INLAND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A THIN STRETCH
OF CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT, WHICH MIGHT
IMPACT TIMING OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT ANY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
BRIEF.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
MODERATE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING SAT AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A GENTLE BREEZE THAT
FLUCTUATES A BIT OUT OF THE E TO S DURING THE DAYTIME, BECOMING
A MORE VARIABLE LIGHT BREEZE AT NIGHT. WINDS STRENGTHEN VERY
SLIGHTLY UP TO A MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SSE BY SUNDAY. SEAS
REMAIN AT 1-2 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME 3 FT WAVES
TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE WATERS OUT 60 NM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN BETWEEN LIGHT WIND CHOP, LOOK FOR A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 10-14 SECONDS, AND A SECONDARY EASTERLY
SWELL AT 8-10 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/IGB
DISCUSSION...RJB/IGB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page