959
FXUS62 KILM 191957
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
357 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
WINDY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY, AS
THE STRONG LOW PULLS AWAY, WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT. A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
STRONG COLD FRONT MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IS SPREADING ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET, BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT, AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING EARLY-MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACQUIRES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT TODAY, FURTHER ENHANCING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE LINE WILL BE MOVING EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH,
BUT DISCRETE CELLS WITH IN THE LINE COULD BE MOVING NORTH AT
OVER 50 MPH.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. ATYPICAL COLD ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR STARTS TO ARRIVE TONIGHT THE LAG IN COLD AIR AND
RELATIVELY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE
CLIMO.
SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT AS THE COLD POOL AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES EXPECT
SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD OVER. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ESPECIALLY
INLAND. INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT IF CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER COVERAGE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PERIOD ENDS WITH COLD POOL NORTH OF THE AREA AND DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS BELOW CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY COLD POOL ALOFT TO MIGRATE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTIFUL DRY MID LEVEL AIR RUSHING
IN AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY TO PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS.
THIS TO BRING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THIS PERIOD,
SEASONABLE WITH A WARMING TREND. SUNDAY MORNING, AS DIURNAL
WARMING BEGINS, LAPSE RATES AND LOWER MOISTURE FROM THE
TRANSITING UPPER TROUGH AXIS, COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SE
NC, DRYING OTHERWISE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FAIR PERIOD, BECAUSE OF DRY AIR IN GENERAL PERCHED ABOVE 6000
FEET. A WEAKENING FRONT TO APPROACH FRIDAY, POSSIBLY CROSSING
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A CLIMB THROUGH MID-WEEK, ABOVE
NORMAL WED-FRI, SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1720Z...SHOULD BE A PRETTY WILD DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS, WITH THE LINE MOVING TO
THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH
STRONG WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 35 KTS
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, WITH MUCH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IN
STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED THE COAST BY 02Z,
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS
OF SAT FROM SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK SAT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THRU TUE WITH MVFR POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY MORNING FOG MON AND TUE
MORNINGS.
MARINE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SPEED. AT THAT POINT THE
GALE WARNING WILL PROBABLY BE DROPPED IN FAVOR OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS REQUIRING THE HEADLINE
THROUGH SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES SLOWLY
DECREASE DURING SAT BUT WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST INTO SAT NIGHT
BEFORE TRUE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. SEAS WELL IN EXCESS OF 10 FT
THIS EVENING START A SLOW DECREASING TREND AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SAT NIGHT BEFORE SEAS DROP UNDER 6 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THIS MARINE PERIOD IS A FAVORABLE ONE, BECAUSE OF A DIMINISHING
WIND TREND. EARLY IN THE PERIOD SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED FROM A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, SO ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY.
MAINLY WEAK SE SWELL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WIND CHOP THIS
PERIOD, NO TSTMS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
THIS EVENING, AND ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AT WILMINGTON EXCEEDING
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. CURRENT TIDE
FORECAST IS JUST UNDER WARNING THRESHOLD, BUT THE TIDAL ANOMALY
HAS BEEN INCREASING, IN PART DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDES MAY REQUIRE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY,
BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ADDITIONAL WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054>056-058-
059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...8
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL/III
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III
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