458
FXUS62 KILM 170548
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME LATE WEEK/WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO BRING ANY
TANGIBLE DROUGHT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SOME LATE WEEK/WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO
BRING ANY TANGIBLE DROUGHT RELIEF.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY APPEAR TO HAVE
LESSENED AS THE WEAK TROUGH TRYING TO GENERATE THEM HAS TO
CONTEND WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING. A MORE PROPER SYNOPTIC FRONT
BACKDOORS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN WITH THE DRY AIR
ALOFT QPF PROSPECTS WITH ITS ARRIVAL LOOK QUITE PALTRY. MOST OF
THE AREA IS IN D2 AND D3 LEVEL DROUGHT AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. INLAND
LOCALES WILL ONLY NEED ONE LINE WHEREAS COASTAL TERMS WILL HAVE FM
GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE SEABREEZE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DUE TO THE RETURN OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW SAVE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOON THEREAFTER THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AND A POORLY DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN IS LEFT
BEHIND. THE LATE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS, LITTLE TO NO SWELL, AND AN OVERALL QUIET SET OF MARINE
CONDITIONS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
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