457
FXUS62 KILM 171032
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 6 AM EDT...THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS OF 3 AM EDT... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN INCREASED. RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO INCREASED AS ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED QPF REMAINS LIGHT.
STORM WATCH UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE NC
ZONES. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE
ZONES, SEE THE WARNING TEXT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
TIMING AND IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA, LEADING TO DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A DEVELOPING
NOR'EASTER WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA,
LEADING TO DANGEROUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD EXCEED 40
MPH ON SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXPANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD ALSO
LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT
LEAST 6 FT BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG EAST-FACING BEACHES.
FOR MARINE IMPACTS, SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25
KNOTS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LIGHT
RAIN MOISTENS THE LOW LEVELS THEREAFTER. SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE, BUT
CONTINUAL DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL TEND TO FIGHT THIS
TREND.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, DECREASING IN COVERAGE
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22 TO 03Z
IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS APPEARING LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OWING AS
SURFACE FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY UNDERNEATH A 45 TO 50 KT NNELY LOW-
LEVEL JET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS, BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PREVENT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS THIS MORNING, BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NOR'EASTER WILL LINGER OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WINDS IMPACTING
OUR SE NC OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY, WHERE STORM FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE NOR'EASTER MOVES FURTHER AWAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO MID WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256-284.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ280.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ280.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...LEW/21
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