054
FXUS62 KILM 090703
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
203 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING CHILLY WEATHER UNTIL
IT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING
WARMING ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY, WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND WHEN
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR UP THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG ON
TOWARDS THE COAST BUT SHOULD CLEAR UP BY THE MORNING. THIS EVENING A
WAVE OF MID/HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT AND THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S, NEAR FREEZING AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PRODUCE A BREEZY AND
RELATIVELY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF DECEMBER
SUNSHINE. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WED, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WED EVE. THE GRADIENT FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN AND EXPECT GUSTY S-SW WINDS
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE GULF AND THEREFORE THE SW RETURN FLOW WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH
MOISTURE RETURN AT ALL AND THEREFORE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOISTURE STARVED. PCP WATER ONLY REACHES A HALF INCH
AHEAD OF PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND FROM A CHILLY MORNING TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES IN WAA.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, CAA WILL KICK IN LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPS ON THURS. SHOULD END UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED.
EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS DOWN NEAR FREEZING OR
BELOW FOR THURS NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DEEP LOW WILL LIFT OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC LEAVING A VERY
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPS. A DECENT JET WILL RIDE ACROSS THE BASE THROUGH
NC AND MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON FRI BUT THIS AXIS OF STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD LEAVING CLEAR SKIES INTO
FRI NIGHT. SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT LEAVING A WARMER RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL, SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON FRI WILL
GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SAT WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM MID 50S ON FRI TO 60S ON SAT.
BY EARLY SUN, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER WESTERLY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET WRAPPED AROUND FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
SUN TO PRODUCE CLOUDS. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO ABOUT AN
INCH AND SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. THEREFORE TEMPS MAY
BE WARMER TO START ON SUN, BUT CLOUDS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
LEAD TO COOLING THROUGH SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT. DON'T THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY PCP. IF NOT, WE COULD SEE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WITHOUT ANY RAIN ONCE AGAIN AS
FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS UP IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE BACK DOWN POSSIBLY
NEAR OR BELOW 50 AGAIN FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
BACK DOWN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BEGINNING SUN NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AROUND OUR AREA IT LOOKS TO BE A PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR CIG ISSUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHEN
THESE CLOUDS START TO SCATTER OUT AS IT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 12 TO
18Z TUESDAY. I'VE GONE WITH THE EARLIER SOLUTION (~12-14Z) BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS FOR THE 12Z TAFS, AND
AMENDMENTS MAY BE MADE BEFORE THEN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD, LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANT VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ~10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING WESTERLY
LATE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH.
WAVEHEIGHTS WILL RESPOND SIMILAR WITH SEAS DECREASING TO 2-4 FT BY
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY'LL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INCREASING GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED
ON WED GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
WARMER WINDS OVER THE COOLER WATERS MAY UNDERPERFORM A BIT, BUT
OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS INCREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WED MORNING
TO 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH WED EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LATE WED INTO THURS BEFORE FRONT MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH THURS WITH DIMINISHING OFFSHORE WINDS. SEAS UP
NEAR 5 TO 7 FT WED NIGHT WILL BE DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT FT BY
THURS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE ON THE LOWER SIDE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BACK AROUND AS FAIRLY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW
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