953
FXUS62 KILM 132344
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS VERY
LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
RATHER WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WON'T BE ABLE TO
MUSTER MUCH PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY W/NW FLOW WILL THEN BE
IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN THU/FRI WILL BE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DIPPING TO AROUND 25-30% EACH AFTERNOON, BUT
FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
APPRECIABLE FIRE DANGER. A WARMING TREND THEN ENSUES INTO THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO UPR 80S) ACROSS INLAND AREAS. FORTUNATELY,
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAX HEAT
INDICES MUCH HIGHER THAN AIR TEMPS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A
SHOWER AND ATTENDANT MVFR BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN
THE FORECAST ATTM. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS MAY GUST OVER
15 KT AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. PERHAPS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG HEADING TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IDEA IS QUITE LOW.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... A MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE NE TO ENE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. GRADIENT
WINDS LOOSEN TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE LATE THIS EVENING, AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF SC LOWCOUNTRY WILL PUSH
FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
THE SSW AS THE FRONT NEARS. FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING,
WHERE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST, INCREASING TOWARDS A MODERATE
BREEZE AGAIN. CONTINUED VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
LATER IN THE MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST. SEAS AT
3-4 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM WILL COME DOWN TO 2-3
FT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE 4-5 FT SEAS ALONG THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM WILL COME DOWN TO 3-4 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS
STAYING WELL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY PREVAILS RESULTING IN WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO STAY 3-4 FT OR LESS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...31
MARINE...MAS/IGB
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