287
FXUS62 KILM 101040
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT WEEK ALLOWING THE CURRENT DROUGHT ACROSS THE
REGION TO FURTHER WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. NO RAINFALL IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ALLOWING THE CURRENT DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION TO FURTHER WORSEN. POTENTIAL WILDFIRE
OUTBREAKS MAY INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE DRY CONDITIONS.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BECOME THE MAINSTAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY IN THE 70S RISING TO THE 80S (POSSIBLY ECLIPSING 90 NEXT
WEEK) DURING THE ENSUING DAYS. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE
OINTMENT, WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MAY REACH THE NC-SC
BORDER SAT NIGHT BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE NORTH LATE SUN.
COULD OBSERVE UP TO 5 DEGREE LOWER MAX TEMPS SUN WHEN COMPARED
TO SAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC BEFORE RESUMING THE
WARMING TREND DURING NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC LIES WITHIN A MODERATE
D1 DROUGHT TO A SEVERE D2 DROUGHT. WITH NO RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND THE DAILY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
RATE RANGING FROM 0.15 TO 0.20 INCHES, THE DROUGHT WILL ONLY
WORSEN, WHILE ENCOMPASSING A LARGER AREA. THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY
LEAD TO FAVORABLE WILDFIRE CONCERNS ALONG WITH PRESCRIBED BURNS
POSSIBLY DELAYED.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA WITH A SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AT THE
COAST. LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND INCREASING DEW POINTS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SOME FOG FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS LOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS HAS
SUSTAINED ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 4-7 FEET. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
CONTINUES TODAY WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE TIMING OF THE SCA WITH THIS
UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS DROP TO
2-4 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY, DOMINATED BY A LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL AROUND 10 SECONDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND
RELAXED GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE SAT WITH THE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE
LIKELY THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE DAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TO START
SAT WITH THE AFTN SEA BREEZE DOMINATING NEARSHORE. SAT NIGHT
WILL FIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH THAT MODELS NOW
TAKE IT TO THE NC-SC BORDER, IE LITTLE RIVER INLET. RIDGING FROM
THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUN WITH NE-E
WINDS DOMINATING THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT BY
SUN MORNING. LATE SUN THRU TUE, THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT CONTINUING
TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE AREA WATERS OBSERVING A SLOW VEERING OF THE WINDS TO
EVENTUALLY S-SW MON NIGHT THRU TUE WITH SPEEDS AT 10-15 KT AT
MOST. HOWEVER BY ED, THE RIDGING SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE SFC
PG TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING WITH INCREASING SW WIND
SPEEDS BUT STILL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ENE-ESE SWELL AT 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS.
IN THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL PEAK IN HEIGHT THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW DECAYING TREND. MAY OBSERVE SEA BREEZE WIND CHOP
NEARSHORE EACH AFTN/EVENING, SAT AND AGAIN MON THRU WED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/21
KEY MESSAGES...DCH
DISCUSSION...DCH
AVIATION...21
MARINE...DCH/21
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