526
FXUS62 KILM 221155
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHILLY WEATHER UNTIL ITS
TRANSITION OFFSHORE LEADS TO A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND
REMAIN RAIN-FREE. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOLDOWN FRIDAY.
UPDATE
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY TODAY AFTER
A CHILLY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY SHIFTING
OFF SHORE BY THIS EVENING. VERY LIGHT NORTH TO VARIABLE WINDS
WILL COME AROUND TO THE SE TO S INTO THIS EVENING. AS AIRMASS
MODIFIES, SHOULD SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER TODAY, BUT STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS JUST BREAKING 50 MOST PLACES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH A FAIRLY FLAT FLOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT WITH MAINLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCP MAINLY OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL TAKE
ANY SHOWERS OR CLOUDS WITH IT, LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BY SUN
MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL REBOUND A GOOD 10 DEGREES FROM THIS
AFTN TO SUN MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL HELP
TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MOST
PLACES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING FOR LOWS. MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG NEAR DAYBREAK SUN AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
*GENERALLY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
*HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MOST,
IF NOT ALL, OF THE PERIOD, AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT, MAINLY IN SC,
BUT ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL
AND THEN FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS STARTING
MON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
*DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH WED NIGHT; SOME RAIN THU INTO
EARLY FRI W/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS; DRY AND COLDER FRI
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
*HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT W/ DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THU/THU NIGHT DESPITE A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS. COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRI WITH TEMPS
LIKELY FALLING BACK A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TODAY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE VERY
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND
BECOMING SE TO S LATER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS BY THIS EVENING WITH A MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FOR A
FEW HOURS 02Z-07Z AND POSSIBLE DIP TO MVFR CIGS OR VIS BRIEFLY
WITH A SLIM CHC OF A COASTAL SHWR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS OR VIS
MAINLY SC TERMINALS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
EVENING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS TODAY MOVING OFF THE COAST INTO THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO ONSHORE AND THEN SE BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
10 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FT MOST WATERS WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY SWELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL LEADING TO A PRETTY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
2 FT OR LESS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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