988
FXUS62 KILM 031841
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR
ICE ACCUMULATION AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES LIKELY TO KEEP ANY
IMPACTS MINOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD AIR FILTERING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE RAIN ENDS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WHICH COULD AFFECT
THE MORNING COMMUTE, MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND PRIMARILY NORTH
OF US-76.
2) NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH NEEDED RAIN WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD AIR FILTERING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE RAIN ENDS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE, MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
PRIMARILY NORTH OF US-76.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
A MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PIVOT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST US. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A CHILLY AIRMASS
SEEPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THIS
SUBFREEZING AIR WILL ARRIVE AND WHETHER THIS WILL OVERLAP WITH THE
RAIN FOR LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON AT LEAST THE
MOST FAVORED ELEVATED SURFACES, LIKE TREE BRANCHES AND
POWER/COMMUNICATION LINES. WITH THE COLD AIR ARRIVING AT NIGHT,
IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE
ACCUMULATION CAN OCCUR ON FAVORED SURFACES, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF US-76. THIS MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY IF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY MORNING CAN REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S WHILE RAIN IS
STILL FALLING. EVEN IF RAIN EXITS BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING, THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED LEADING UP TO THE
SUBFREEZING AIR'S ARRIVAL SHOULD WASH AWAY MOST OR ALL TREATMENT
ON ROADWAYS, THUS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE
FORMATION. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL IMPACT FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN
OR BLACK ICE SHOULD BE MINOR AT WORST AND LIMITED TO THE EARLY
TO MID-MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
BY MIDDAY, THINNING CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND END THE ICE THREAT. STEADY NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT MOST PAVED
SURFACES THAT ARE NOT NEAR LEFTOVER SNOW PILES, SO EVEN WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE BLACK
ICE THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH NEEDED RAIN
WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A NICE DOSE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL START TO CREEP IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, BEFORE THE MAIN SWATH
OF RAIN STARTS TO SET UP NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF, WHICH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER KICKS UP TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THIS
LINE, AIDED BY SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 285-300K. THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE BETTER RAINFALL
TOTALS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS. EVEN SO, "BETTER"
DOES NOT EQUATE TO "IDEAL" NECESSARILY, AS WE'RE GOING TO NEED
A LOT MORE RAIN TO ALLEVIATE THE GROWING DROUGHT CONCERNS.
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.75-1.10" THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.
ANOTHER PIECE OF GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SHOULD HELP CONSIDERABLY
WITH THE MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT 30+ HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. BKN CIRRUS CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN LATE TONIGHT, WITH A LIGHT BREEZE
OUT OF THE SSW. -RA SHOULD START TO HOVER NEAR KFLO AND KLBT
SOMETIME AROUND 03-06Z TONIGHT, GETTING TO KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR BY
08-10Z. MVFR CEILINGS ENTER THE INLAND TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING, REACHING THE COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL DIP DOWN TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AT KFLO AND
KLBT BY 15-16Z, WITH RA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
EXTENDED FORECAST...IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY, REACHING VFR AGAIN SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 15 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST
UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS LINGER NEAR 2-4 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, VEERING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST OR
WEST TO NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 KTS ON THURSDAY.
WINDS SLACKEN AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15-20 KTS, WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLACKENING
AGAIN INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY IN TANDEM WITH
THE WINDS, BUT MAINLY HOLD BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOR THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT OVER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...IGB/ABW
DISCUSSION...IGB/ABW
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/ABW
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