943
FXUS62 KILM 032327
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
627 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z PACKAGE. GUIDANCE REMAINS
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
2) WIDESPREAD MARINE FOG POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND
MID-UPPER RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BUILD IN WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, WITH LOW-MID 70S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
ABNORMALLY HIGH DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO
LOW 60S FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD, COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD,
ALLOWING FOR A HEALTHY SEA BREEZE TO SPREAD INLAND OF THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY POP-UP SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A DECAYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WIDESPREAD MARINE FOG POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
DETAILS BELOW IN THE MARINE SECTION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 50S IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF FOG WITH POTENTIAL LIFR, PARTICULARLY IF
WINDS GO COMPLETELY CALM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT PATCHY FOG COULD BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS AND SEA FOG COULD ADVECT INTO THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS WED NIGHT-FRI.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL BECOME E AT 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 4 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS OF 2-4 FT
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ESE TO SE SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 9-10
SEC. AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S TOMORROW AND THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY OVER WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S, SEA
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF THIS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CRM
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...ABW/31
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