868
FXUS62 KILM 111838
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
238 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NOW A GALE
WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. CHANCE FOR SEA FOG
DECREASES INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE. LOOKS TO BE TRENDING
COLDER FOR LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
2) PERIODS OF SEA FOG MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
3) POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST/LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING.
4) LOW-END SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RISK FOR
FREEZE/FROST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER OR POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE REPLACED WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL COME EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS UP AROUND 70 EARLY
MORNING AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED,
BUT THE EARLIER TIMING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD SOMEWHAT
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, SEEMS
LIKE THE BEST CHC OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MID TO LATE
MORNING INLAND TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST DYNAMICS FROM FRONT, BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONE, ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN SHOWERS OR STORMS. SPC
HAS OUTLINED OUR AREA FOR MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
KINGSTREE TO NORTH MYRTLE BEACH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE QPF SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO COOLER NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
READINGS A GOOD 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY BY LATE AFTN ON
THURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PERIODS OF SEA FOG MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED DEW POINTS INTO THURS. THE
WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY SEA
FOG ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
NC AND NORTHEAST SC. THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THURS TO LOWER THE OVERALL RISK
THOUGH. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST CHC OF SEA FOG WILL BE ALONG AND
OFF THE COAST OF THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
BRUNSWICK COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST/LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
STRONG CAA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL WANE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH, POTENTIALLY
DECOUPLE, PARTICULARLY INLAND. EXPECT MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S,
SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE, MAINLY IN
OUTLYING/RURAL AREAS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM REMAINS INACTIVE;
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LOW-END SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A RISK FOR FREEZE/FROST DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR, ROBUST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH CSU ML ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING MONDAY AS THE WINDOW OF GREATEST CONCERN.
BEST CHANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN US AS A CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A ELEVATED RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR A FEW
NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURS LEADING TO
GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT TO NW NEAR OR
JUST BEYOND THE 18Z TIMEFRAME. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD AFFECT THE INLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND WILL
MOVE TO COASTAL TERMINALS NEAR OR JUST AFTER END OF THIS PERIOD.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MID MORNING TO
MID AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20
KNOTS WITHIN THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING, LEADING TO SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.
THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ON THURS
AND SHOULD SEE GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THURS AFTN THROUGH THURS
NIGHT. THE GALE WATCH IS NOW A GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS
OVER 35 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AS THEY SHIFT FROM SW TO W
THURS AFTN AND THEN NW TO N BY THURS EVE. THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP ABOVE AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POST-FRONTAL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT.
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS. SEAS
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, BUILDING TO 6-7 FT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY,
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11TH:
................... WED MAR 11
WILMINGTON NC......... 86 IN 2016
LUMBERTON NC.......... 87 IN 1925
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC.... 82 IN 1997
FLORENCE SC........... 86 IN 2015
LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE ARE FORECAST TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS
TODAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLED BY AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE AND HAVE A LOWER CHANCE TO BREAK EXISTING RECORDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/CBL
DISCUSSION...RGZ/CBL
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/CBL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page