005
FXUS62 KILM 160001
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
701 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW. A LULL IN THE RAIN MAY BUILD
IN INLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND ALONG
THE BACK OF THE LOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST COMING ONSHORE WILL MAKE FOR HEAVIER AND MORE SPORADIC
RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BRING MINOR DROUGHT RELIEF
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BRING MINOR
DROUGHT RELIEF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS ABOUT TO SURGE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE VERY NEAR
TERM WILL THEN BENEFIT FROM DEEPER ASCENT THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS MS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH EVENING AND THEN START DIMINISHING QUICKLY
FROM THE WEST BY ABOUT 06Z AS THE MULTI-CENTERED LOW PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA, THE FRONT ITSELF POSSIBLY EVEN OFFSHORE
BY 09Z ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. THUNDER HAS
BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A TOUGH CALL. HREF MEANS KEEP
INSTABILITY GENERALLY OFFSHORE BUT A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
TO HAVE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES/KG OVER LAND SO HAVE LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF ANY MESOSCALE VARIATION BY SAID CONVECTION
THE AREA STANDS TO SEE 0.5"- 0.75" OF RAINFALL. SEA FOG COULD
ALSO DEVELOP AND EFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST ESP COASTAL
BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN THE SW FLOW. IT WILL BE PUSHED OUT TO SEA
AND NO LONGER PLAGUE THE COAST OR ADJACENT WATERS WITH THE WIND
SHIFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY.
AN AIRMASS WARMED BY STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE OVER EASTERN MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS NEAR +13C ARE ABOUT ONE DEGREE ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE AT KCHS AND NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE DAILY MAX VALUES OBSERVED THIS TIME OF YEAR. EVEN WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUN TO BOOST FRIDAY'S
HIGHS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND.
FRIDAY'S CURRENT RECORD HIGH AT LUMBERTON IS 80 DEGREES FROM 2018,
WILMINGTON IS 81 FROM 1991, AND AT FLORENCE IS 83 FROM 2014. BESIDES
CLOUD COVER, ANOTHER WILDCARD TO CONSIDER IS WIND DIRECTION WHICH
COULD ADVECT RELATIVELY CHILLY AIR ONSHORE FROM WHERE NEARSHORE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 40S. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST
WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP COASTAL CITIES, PARTICULARLY SOUTHPORT AND
THE MYRTLE BEACH/GRAND STRAND AREA, SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
LOCATIONS 15-20 MILES INLAND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ONGOING HEAVY SHOWERS ARE PERIODICALLY IMPACTING COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN INLAND. KFLO/KLBT MAY SEE
RAINFALL STOP FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE COMES IN
FROM THE WEST WITH SOME WIND GUSTS ~20 KTS. HAVE ADDED SOME
LLWS TO COASTAL TAFS AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT CLASH WITH THE
LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SURFACE EARLY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE BOARD, VSBYS
SHOULD BE LARGELY MVFR WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL DIPPING THEM INTO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER TERRITORY BRIEFLY. CIGS RIGHT NOW ARE
SPOTTY WITH THE TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO IFR, BUT ONCE IFR IS
ESTABLISHED THESE SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z, ANY
VSBYS SHOULD CLEAR UP WITH THE LOW PASSAGE SO ~6-7Z. SE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME N/NW AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW, GUSTING ~20 KTS IN THE MORNING BEFORE CALMING INTO THE
EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR DURING THE DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH A
CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES LATE-WEEK COULD LEAD TO MORE PREDOMINANT
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS TO TURN TO SW AND INCREASE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
SUB- ADVISORY BUT SEAS WILL NOT, REACHING CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOUT 2 SM RESTRICTIONS. LATER TONIGHT THE
FRONTAL VEER TO N WINDS EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
SO EXPECT ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS TO BE SLOW TO ABATE; THE CURRENT
END TIMES NOT CHANGED WITH FORECAST CYCLE. WAVE FACES WILL BE
STEEPENED BY THE WIND SHIFT. SOME NE BACKSWELL MAY START TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. COLD NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CREATE A VERY STABLE
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE, KEEPING MARINE WINDS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH
AS ONE MIGHT THINK GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS. WE'RE
FORECASTING WINDS OVER THE WATER TO REACH NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BOTH JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EVEN AFTER THE GREAT LAKES LOW WEAKENS THURSDAY, MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/MBB
DISCUSSION...TRA/MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/MBB
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