493
FXUS62 KILM 311744
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST-TO- EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARMING TREND AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS*
*HAZARDS: DRY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN NC
TODAY
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE
*TEMPS: BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT; NEAR NORMAL THU
*CONFIDENCE: HIGH
DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL GIVE WAY TO
A PASSING TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE
EXPECTED BUT IT WILL KICK UP WINDS A BIT AND WITH SOME CLOUDS AS
WELL WE DON'T EXPECT IT TO BE NEARLY AS COLD OVERNIGHT AS IT WAS
THIS AM. MOST LOCALES SHOULD STAY NEAR FREEZING, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY THEN BRINGS A MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN, FIRST FROM
THE DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT OF A 250MB JET STREAK, THEN BY
INCREASINGLY LOW WARM ADVECTION. ASSUMING THIS IS CORRECT EXPECT
INCREASINGLY DIM SUNSHINE AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND CLOUD BASES
LOWER. BY THE END OF FRIDAY NIGHT THE DEEP LAYER ASCENT GOES ALL THE
WAY UP TO 300MB ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS SECTION. THE FORECAST THUS
SHOWS A GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER (AFTER 06Z) PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WHEREAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ELEVATED SLIGHT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN TO THE AREA THOUGH RECENT MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING IS STILL LEADING
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WILL FALL IN ANY GIVEN LOCALE.
DRY AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY ON SUNDAY FOR A RETURN OF FULL SUNSHINE.
WITH LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
NORMS. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF LEADING TO ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW LOCALLY WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMUP.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU 18Z/01. A DRY SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH LLWS EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A WESTERLY 2K FT JET AROUND 40-45 KT MOVES
THROUGH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN, AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PASSING TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN SLACKEN
AGAIN THU LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... VERY WEAK GRADIENT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED EAST-WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL DIMINUTIVE SEAS. CHANGES IN STORE
FOR SATURDAY AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUGH RESOLVING
THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH OBVIOUS
IMPLICATIONS TO THE WIND FORECAST. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE LOW SHOULD
ACQUIRE A MODERATE WARM ADVECTION/SWRLY FLOW WHILE AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF IT WILL MAINTAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE
LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE NOW APPEARS TO
BE A STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
APPROACH BUT GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO ABATE ON MONDAY EVEN AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT
TO SEA, IT'S INCREASED DISTANCE OFFSET BY ITS INCREASING SIZE AND
STRENGTH. A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASINGLY JOIN THE WIND
WAVES TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...ILM
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