881
FXUS62 KILM 120018
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
718 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY SPED UP THE ENDING OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE ILM CWA AND
LOCAL WATERS, FROM WNW-ESE, BASED ON LATEST KLTX 88D TRENDS AND
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE. OPAQUE CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
FA TO FOLLOW RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS, THERE4 SPED UP THE
CLEARING TREND WITH THE END RESULT LEAVING THIN CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT THRU THU.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PREVIOUS CHANGES ISSUED AT 123PM EST...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ENTIRE FORECAST
SUITE WAS UPDATED WITH NEW DISCUSSIONS BELOW, BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING AND COLDER THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) STOUT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLEARING AND COLDER THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO/THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. RESIDUAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR JUST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS MODEST ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO RECENT EVENTS 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT TOWARD
FREEZING. LOWS EARLY THURSDAY WILL DIP TO THE LOWER 30S WITH
HIGHS SLOWLY RECOVERING AND BENEFITING FROM MID FEBRUARY TIMING
REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STOUT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
THIS SYSTEM ALOFT, BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
SOUTH OF ARKLATEX EARLY SUNDAY, QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GULF AND INTO THE ATLANTIC SOMETIME MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA TODAY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH OR
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT
AND CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS, ACTING MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT. THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THIS FRONT TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS PUTS
US THOROUGHLY IN THE WARM SECTOR, AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PULLING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
AND GULF COAST. PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE FILLS THE ATMOSPHERE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 1.15" OR SO. THIS IS
JUST SHY OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF ALL HISTORICAL SOUNDING DATA
TAKEN AT THE CHS AND MHX RAOB SITES.
THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME GOOD JET DYNAMICS TO DELIVER US
SOME OF THE BETTER RAINFALL WE'VE SEEN IN MONTHS. LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST HALF AN INCH, WHILE
SOME MAY SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. RAIN GRADUALLY STARTS PICKING UP
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, LAST THROUGH ALL DAY SUNDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY BE A WELCOMED SIGHT, BUT LIKELY WON'T DO
MUCH FOR OUR ONGOING DROUGHT. PER THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, THE
GRAND MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS SITTING IN A D1 "MODERATE DROUGHT".
OTHER PARTS OF THE PEE DEE REGION ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES ARE IN A D2 "SEVERE DROUGHT". THIS
RAIN IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, BUT WE'VE GOT A LONG WAY TO
GO. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING AT
THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
POTENTIAL RESIDUAL MVFR CEILINGS, AOA 2500 FT, POSSIBLE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THRU 01Z. NOT ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO PLACE
MVFR IN THE TAFS THEMSELVES BUT WARRANTS A MENTION HERE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH STRATOCU/ALTOCU CLOUD DECKS, 5K TO 12K FT, GIVING
WAY TO THIN CIRRUS OVERNIGHT THRU THU. DRIER AIR. LOWER
DEWPOINTS, ALONG WITH CAA, WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF FOG PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR BUT THE WINDOW OF OBSERVING IS SMALL GIVEN THOSE LOWER
DEWPOINTS ALREADY INFILTRATING PORTIONS OF SE NC AND NE SC AND
CONTINUING TO SINK SSE. WINDS GENERALLY WNW-NW 6 KT OR LESS,
BECOMING NNW-N 6 TO 10 KT ONCE THE CAA AND DRIER AIR ENCOMPASS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW 5 KT THU AFTN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THU NIGHT THRU SAT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
LATER SAT NIGHT INTO MON AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WHILE THERE
MAY BE A GUST OR TWO AT OR SLIGHTLY ECLIPSING 25 KNOTS THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AND A HEADLINE IS NOT NEEDED/WARRANTED AT
THIS POINT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WINDS NOTING THE FETCH CHANGE
WITH 2-4 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH GRADIENT
WINDS TEMPORARILY INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS FOR A TIME. THIS
GRADIENT QUICKLY DROPS OFF FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING TOWARDS 5 KTS. VEERING CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND THE SAME.
SEAS ARE 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE TIME. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL ON
THE WAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY,
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SOMETIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO STICK AROUND INTO MONDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...SHK/IGB
DISCUSSION...SHK/IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/IGB
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