433
FXUS62 KILM 010657
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE CONTINUED TO GO DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN.
2) THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED A DRIER TREND EACH DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE AND IS SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN OR SHIFT EASTWARDS. THIS NUDGES THE FORECAST
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BY ERODING WHAT
WAS ALREADY MARGINAL CAPE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
IF WE GET AN ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
IT'S MOST LIKELY TO BE INLAND WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER AND THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE IN THE 80-85 RANGE
INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES. THIS IS
DUE TO SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW SUPPLEMENTED EACH DAY BY THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURPRISING AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE ALONG ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL
ADVECT A STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
DURING SUNDAY'S AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT GONE, THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. GFS MOS AGREES WITH NBM GUIDANCE WITH 50-70 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TWO WEEK-OBSERVED RAINFALL HAS RANGED
FROM 0 TO 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA (1.3 TO 1.6
INCHES BELOW NORMAL) SINCE MARCH 17 SO WE WOULD DEARLY LIKE TO
SEE SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO READ TOO MUCH INTO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST 700 MB WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING VARY FROM 25-45 KNOTS BETWEEN THE MODELS WHICH
IMPLIES VERY DIFFERENT VALUES OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, AND THE
TIMING MAY NOT BE OPTIMAL SHOULD THE PRECIP ARRIVE IN THE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. WE'LL HOPEFULLY GET A CLEARER PICTURE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DIMINISHING RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EARLY
MORNING TIMEFRAME MAINLY BETWEEN 9-13Z FEATURING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RESTRICTIONS. GUIDANCE TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING MORE OF A LOW
STRATUS THREAT THAN FOG, LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
WINDS. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IS AT KFLO
AND KLBT, BUT THE USUAL PROBLEM SPOT OF KCRE WILL BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS OF SUNRISE, EXCEPT INLAND IF AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS SHIELD
DEVELOPS. ONCE ANY STRATUS DISSIPATE, DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL TAKE
SHAPE ONCE AGAIN WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE AND DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
THU/FRI/SAT. SEA FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEGINNING FOR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THRU THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED WINDS TOWARDS SSE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD PRIMARILY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE, MAINLY DRIVEN
BY A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7 SEC AND SOME
SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP NEARSHORE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN PLACE
WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST, WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE S TO SE AT ONLY 5-15 KT,
WITH DAILY ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE FROM THE SEA BREEZE, AND
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT, LARGELY CONSISTING OF 8-9 SECOND SE
SWELL.
CLIMATE
BOTH JANUARY AND FEBRUARY RAN 2 TO 4 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MARCH HAS REVERSED THAT
TREND AND HEADING INTO THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH MARCH'S
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS RUN 3 TO 4 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
ASSUMING DAILY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND RUN 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WE SHOULD COMPLETELY ELIMINATE THE
REMAINING ACCUMULATED TEMPERATURE "DEFICIT" SINCE JANUARY 1.
LOCATION CURRENT YTD DEPARTURE FORECAST YTD DEPARTURE APRIL 5
WILMINGTON -0.1 F +0.6 F
N MYRTLE BEACH -0.2 F +0.3 F
FLORENCE -0.6 F +0.1 F
LUMBERTON -0.3 F +0.3 F
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS/ABW
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