121
FXUS62 KILM 271059
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BRING APPRECIABLE DROUGHT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION...THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BRING APPRECIABLE DROUGHT RELIEF.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AND PW VALUES RISING
TO 1.6" NEAR THE MAX FOR THE DATE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SATURATION DESPITE WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF ITS DEPTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY LONG
WINDOW WHERE A LITTLE RAIN COULD FALL; BETWEEN THE EARLY DAY
WARM FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT THAT FOLLOWS IN THE 06-09Z TIME
FRAME. WITH SUCH HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL READILY YIELD RAIN IN ANY WEAK ASCENT, THOUGH
WITH FORECAST OMEGA VALUES CAPPED AT 10 MICROBARS/SECOND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR STRATUS, IN THE GENERALLY 1500-2500 FT RANGE, WILL
DOMINATE ALL TERMINALS THRU MID-DAYTIME MORNING. THERE-AFTER,
LOOK AT A DEGRADATION OF THE STRATUS FROM NW TO SE WITH VFR
DOMINATING BY MIDDAY. ALL TERMINALS LIKELY TO OBSERVE FEW/SCT
FLAT TOPPED CU/SCU THIS AFTERNOON. AND BY SUNSET, SKIES WILL
RUN SKC ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY NNE-NE WINDS THRU MIDDAY
FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE GUSTS AS CAA
BECOMES NEUTRAL AND THE SFC PG CHANGES INTO A RELAXING PHASE.
WILL SEE NE-ENE WINDS AOB 6 KT AFTER SUNSET THRU DAYBREAK TUE.
AT THIS POINT, GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW KEY WITH FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT BUT GIVEN NC TERMINALS RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND,
LBT/ILM WILL BE THE SITES TO POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE FOG
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH TUE. INCREASING
RAIN AND TSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE NEXT CFP COULD BRING
PERIODIC MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WED THROUGH THU.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...ONGOING SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE SFC PG WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AS THE HIGH'S CENTER ELONGATES
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND SC FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY THRU
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PEAKING NNE-NE WINDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON
HRS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND THRU THE DAY, WITH
WINDS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THAT TREND THRU TONIGHT. THE SCA MAY NEED TO RUN THRU
SUNSET OR INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR GIVEN
6 FT SCA THRESHOLD SEAS SLOW TO SUBSIDE. AND THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE CLOSED/CUTOFF UPPER LOW HAVING CAPTURED THE SFC LOW AND
MOVING SLOWLY FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE DELMARVA COAST. SHOULD
OBSERVE SEAS NOTICEABLY SUBSIDING ACROSS HE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT BUT THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS WILL EXHIBIT A MUCH
SLOWER DECLINE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
ON TUESDAY BRINGING VERY LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
ALL DAY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST-
FRONTAL NW FLOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY THEN TURNS SE AND
THEN SWLY. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH
DISCUSSION...DCH/MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MBB
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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