561
FXUS62 KILM 071927
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF BERMUDA WILL BRING SEASONABLE HEAT AND
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
THURSDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
GOOD COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
GETTING A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE TUTT LOW MOVING ACROSS. LOOKING
EASTWARD AND USING THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE, INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY. THE COVERAGE
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HIGHER WITH LAND BASED INSTABILITY. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS A GOOD SMATTERING OF THE MOISTURE MAY BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON THEN MORE
CONFINED TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COASTAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FROM LAND BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE ON TUESDAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND
HUMID. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND, UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TYPICALLY, THESE FRONTS ARE SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DESPITE
THE UNCERTAINTY, SOME PORTION OF THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND STORM CHANCES IN THE
VICINITY. VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS AN ELONGATED BERMUDA
SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER SOUTHERN SC
AND GA COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
POTENTIAL FOR A COOLDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF
THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, IT SHOULD MAKE FOR
A QUIET WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONVECTION SEEMS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
LATE SUMMER INSTABILITY LADEN ENVIRONMENT WARRANTS VCTS EVEN IN
THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. IT APPEARS SOME MID LEVEL PVA IS
PLAYING A ROLE IN THE INCREASE AS WELL. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. IT APPEARS JUST A COUPLE KNOTS
OF WIND HAS HELD SIGNIFICANT FOG AT BAY INLAND THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN DURING
MONDAY AROUND ANY CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF
AUGUST ACROSS THIS PART OF THE CAROLINAS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND TEN KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEYOND THIS AS THE INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS
MORE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT AROUND TWO
FEET WITH PERHAPS A VERY INCREMENTAL INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. BRIEF
INCREASES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE AND AHEAD OF
A MID WEEK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERALL, EXPECT WIND WAVES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 3
FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, INCREASING DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/21
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