909
FXUS62 KILM 011040
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED.
CONFIDENCE IN BENEFICIAL RAIN BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
REMAINS HIGH, WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, OR
GENERALLY WEST OF I-95.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THE NEXT 2 EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL ZONE IS IN PLACE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND EXTENDING OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG
THIS FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE LIFTING THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING AN INITIAL BATCH OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND SHARPENS, INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE, BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN FROM THE
LATTER HALF OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE AND
ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN NC COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND IT.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, NBM-BASED PRECIP PROBABILITIES
INDICATE A HIGH CHANCE OF 80% OR GREATER FOR EVENT TOTALS
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) TO REACH AT LEAST 0.75" ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A 60- 80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1", AND A
40-65% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1.5". QPF CLUSTERING TOOLS INDICATE
EVENT TOTALS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 2- 3" IN A NARROW STRIPE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHICH SEE RAIN
THE LONGEST.
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN BETWEEN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY IS HIGH. CONFIDENCE IN THE
AMOUNTS IS MODERATE TO HIGH AS GUIDANCE TOOLS REMAIN GENERALLY
STEADY IN THEIR ESTIMATES, ALTHOUGH SOME VARIATIONS NORTH OR
SOUTH IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED. THE
LOWEST RELATIVE CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS, WHICH MAY END UP ON A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP
AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE FRONT ENDS UP
BEING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR
BELOW- NORMAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THEREAFTER BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AROUND
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT 2 EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AS A RESULT OF THE FULL MOON AND RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, THE LATEST TIDAL GAGE FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER HAS IT ECLIPSING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS (5.5 FT
MLLW) DURING THIS EVENINGS, AND AGAIN SATURDAY'S, HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. THIS WILL EFFECT LOW-LYING LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE RIVER FROM DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND SOUTHWARD. THE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR GENERALLY WITHIN A 3 HOUR WINDOW
CENTERED AROUND THE EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
IS AT 1032PM AND FOR SAT EVENING, 1111PM.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA THRU MIDDAY. OTHERWISE, LOOKING
AT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK VFR OVERRUNNING LIGHT
RAIN TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN REDUCING VSBY TO 5SM AT TIMES AND CEILINGS DROPPING
INTO THE 2500-4000 FT RANGE, IE. WITH PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS.
WINDS NE AROUND 10 KT THRU MIDDAY AS A MINI SURGE OCCURS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM THE DELMARVA COAST, WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH LATER
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN OFF THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT. LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM RAINS TO BECOME MORE
CONTINUOUS AS OPPOSED TO INTERMITTENT. WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH OCCASIONALLY IFR RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...EXPECT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THRU SAT EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS WHILE
TRACKING NE, AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR RETURNS LATE SAT NIGHT
THRU TUE EXCEPT FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...COLD FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF
JACKSONVILLE FL THIS MORNING THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT OFF THE
SC COAST TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ITSELF LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH TO JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL BE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO LAND GIVEN THE
APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL S/W TROF NOT CONDUCIVE
TO PULL THE FRONT ONSHORE AND INLAND. AS A RESULT, WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY GO VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THEREAFTER MAY SEE WIND DIRECTIONS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BISECT OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL EVIDENTLY OBSERVE SLIGHT
INCREASING NE TO E WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING SE WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT. COASTAL WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SLOW BUILDING TREND TO
THE SEAS, ENDING AT 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT DAYBREAK. SAME FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT DAYBREAK. EASTERLY
SWELL AT 10+ SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES POSSIBLY DOMINATING BY THE
END OF THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
A FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND THESE SURFACE LOWS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS
ON SATURDAY, WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLACKENING
SOME OVERNIGHT. STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH ITS RAPID
TREK EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.
SEAS WILL RISE AS WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY, PEAKING IN THE 2-5
FT RANGE LATE ON SATURDAY WITHIN 20NMI OF SHORE BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 1-2 FT RANGE. WATERS FROM 20-
60NM LOOK TO HAVE SEAS PEAK IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO
2-3 FT BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH
TUESDAY OWING TO LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER. A
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WIND WAVES AND ENERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 10 SEC WILL BE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUPS THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN. THE ENERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7-8 SEC EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/ABW
DISCUSSION...DCH/ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/ABW
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