012
FXUS62 KILM 211753
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1253 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCH UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN TO BRING MINOR DROUGHT RELEIF
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
2) SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, APPROACHING RECORD LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN TO BRING MINOR
DROUGHT RELIEF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL HAVE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG ITS LENGTH, THE LOW'S POORLY DEFINED
CENTER MOVING UP THE COAST. AND ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE, THE MECHANISMS FOR LIFT ARE FAIRLY WEAK KEEPING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. MOST OF
THE RAINFALL COMES TONIGHT. WE ACTUALLY DO HAVE SOME HEALTHY
DYNAMICS LATER SUNDAY BUT AFTER THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY
MOVED OFFSHORE. TNOIGHT'S LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WHEREAS SUNDAY
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL BUT ALSO EARLY IN THE DAY AS COLD ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CAUSING FALLING TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, APPROACHING RECORD LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.
A SURGE OF COLD AIR PULLED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
BOMBING CYCLONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD SLIP
BELOW 0C SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PLUNGE TO -8 TO -10C BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY RESOURCE SHOWS THIS IS 8-9
DEGREES C BELOW THE 10TH CLIMATOLOGICALLY PERCENTILE FOR CHS AND
COULD APPROACH DAILY OBSERVED LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BREEZY WINDS AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING TOO LOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES
FORECAST. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
THE REAL IMPACTFUL NIGHT TEMPERATURE-WISE SHOULD BE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AS WINDS DROP OFF TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET
INTO THE MID 20S OR EVEN A BIT COLDER INLAND, APPROACHING DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURES AT FLORENCE
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE IS STALLED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING LIGHT NE WINDS. IT HAS PUSHED THE SEA FOG OUT OF THE
MYRTLES. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE BOUNDARY AND IT MOVES UP
THE COAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND A
LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR OR WORSE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR ONLY PUSHES
PARTLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHUTTING THE RAIN OFF TEMPORARILY AT
FLO AND LBT. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING THAT THIS LEADS TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PUT INTO FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. RAIN RETURNS TO BEING AREA-WIDE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL DEVELOP FOR THUNDER FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
POORLY DEFINED LOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT STAYS OFFSHORE JUST
ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DO THE SAME. DEEP MOISTURE SHUNTS OFFSHORE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD SHUTTING DOWN THE RAIN BUT CLEARING
SKIES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS RETURN IN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH FRONT SAGGED TO
OUR SOUTH AND NO BIG PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. BIG CHANGES
FOR TOMORROW THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. COASTAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY SEE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW
ACCELERATES TO THE NE, DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
IN A STRENGTHENING CAA REGIME. HAVE UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO WARNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BOMBING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE A LARGE SWATH OF STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
COLD AIR PULLED OFFSHORE WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUFFICIENTLY FOR 35 KNOT WINDS TO GET TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE IN GUSTS. ACCORDINGLY, THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
GALE WARNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS IS
MOSTLY LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH 25 KNOT GUSTS MAY CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FLORIDA ON TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT SPEEDS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE AND SHOULD REACH 20-25 KT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING 2/24/2026...
WILMINGTON NC 18 SET IN 1901
LUMBERTON NC 18 SET IN 1978
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC 26 LAST SET IN 2009
FLORENCE SC 24 SET IN 1968
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/MBB
DISCUSSION...TRA/MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...TRA/MBB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page