191
FXUS62 KILM 051035
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
MIDWEEK.
LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS
ALONG THE COAST WITH SW FLOW RUNNING OVER THE STABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD. DRIER
AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN END TO MOST OF THE
RAINFALL BY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE 850 TEMPS DROP FROM 16C TODAY DOWN
TO LESS THAN 10C BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW 60
MOST PLACES INLAND WITH SOME 40S IN SPOTS WITH DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD IFR. CEILINGS WILL RISE TO MVFR
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE, OCCURRING
FIRST AT FLO/LBT. INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS MIDDAY. AT COASTAL SITES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION, DESPITE THE FRONT ALREADY OFFSHORE. FOR
CRE/MYR/ILM SUB 2K FT MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS RISE ABOVE 2K FT, EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE VFR CATEGORY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS STAYING UNDER 10 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DOMINATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNINGS.
MARINE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS HOLDS OFF
UNTIL A REINFORCING TROUGH REACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 3AM WED MORNING. SHOULD DROP BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WED DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT
INTO THURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...RGZ
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