768
FXUS62 KILM 042325
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
725 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO WARMING THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TAKE
OVER BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE
COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS EARLIER HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK AND MUCH OF THE
COLUMN REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. GIVEN THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RADIATE WELL TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE MORE HUMID COASTLINE.
THE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF FOG TO BE AROUND LOW-LYING WETLANDS, SWAMPS, AND
RIVER VALLEYS WITH LIMITED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A
LITTLE BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC, BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE AND
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL HELP TO SEND
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ON THAT DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO PLAY WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ALSO BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY. THUS, EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST ARE FORECAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE
LIKELY TO ADVANCE RATHER FAR INLAND AMIDST EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMING FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, RESULTING IN
MID-UPPER DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. IF ANYTHING WERE TO
SURVIVE INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT, IT SHOULD BE NO MORE
THAN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THEY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SEE A SLIGHT BOOST OVER
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT INTO THE LOW 70S AS THICK CLOUDINESS BLANKETS THE
AREA AND SOUTH WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT NEARS,
RAISING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA AND JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN STALL AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE INITIALLY
DRIVING IT LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTH. IN THIS SETUP, THE FRONT COULD
TEMPORARILY MERGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DRIFT BACK INLAND AS
DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHARPLY
TURNING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, A DISTINCT ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT. AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW 70S ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S SHOULD BE ABLE TO YIELD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INITIALLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE
MORNING WILL MOISTEN WITH TIME, SO DCAPE WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. HOWEVER, MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25-30
KTS ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
THREAT, IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND SHEAR
VALUES ACTUALLY VERIFY. PWATS AROUND 1.8-2" WILL ALSO RESULT IN
A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT, BUT THE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
LOCALIZED TO MORE URBANIZED/LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. LASTLY, A FAST-
MOVING MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
HELP TO SHOVE THE FRONT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOLID PUSH
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN, RESULTING IN FALLING DEW
POINTS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHOULD END UP PARKED OVER NEW
ENGLAND, MAINTAINING A SURFACE WEDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
AND STEADY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WHICH WAS SHOVED OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL STALL NEAR OR OVER THE GULF STREAM AND MAY DRIFT BACK WEST
A LITTLE OVER TIME. IF NOTHING ELSE, ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT, BUT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SCRAPING THE COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES IF IT ENDS
UP DRIFTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. OTHERWISE, BELOW- NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AMIDST A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S (POTENTIALLY MID-UPPER 70S IF CLOUDINESS IS THICK
ENOUGH AND LIGHT RAIN IS REACHING THE COAST) AND LOWS IN THE
LOW- MID 60S.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING, SLIGHTLY MORE EXPANSIVE AND THICKER THAN
THURSDAY MORNING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS DESPITE CALM WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS REMAINS NEAR WATERWAYS AND HAVE KEPT IN A
COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS IN KILM TAFS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TAF PERIOD, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SEA
BREEZE AT COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TURN SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE COAST IN AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS 1-2
FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... GENERALLY WEAK (SUSTAINED 10 KTS OR
LESS) SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DRIFT BACK ONSHORE WITH THE SEA
BREEZE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING WINDS BACK TO EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT, THIS FRONT WILL BE
SHOVED OFFSHORE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TAKING OVER IN ITS
WAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS AND RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH MAY
REACH SCA CRITERIA FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
BENIGN SEAS AROUND 1-3 FT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN TANDEM WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS
TIME, 6+ FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER INTO THE COASTAL WATER ZONES
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK ON TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS OF 6-7 FT
(POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT NEAR THE 20NMI BOUNDARY OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR).
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND PEAK WINDS/WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY, BUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...21/ABW
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