358
FXUS62 KILM 271044
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
AS OF 3 AM EDT... MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR POTENTIAL SHORT
TERM NC WATERS SCA LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 105+ TUE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND KICKS IN TODAY, PEAKING DURING TUESDAY.
2) THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE PRE-DAWN
WEDNESDAY HOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMING TREND KICKS IN TODAY, PEAKING DURING
TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS A DECENT WARMUP TODAY THRU TUE,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 90S FOR TODAYS HIGHS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE OR AN
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W TROF COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY
ALLEVIATE THE HEAT. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THE
CONVECTION TODAY WHICH SHOULD PARTIALLY MIX DOWN AS LOWER
DEWPOINTS. FOR TUESDAY GUIDANCE PUSHES MAX TEMPS TO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FA. LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING
ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT LIKE MON AND AS A RESULT, LOOK
FOR HEAT INDICES TO LIKELY BREACH 105+ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FA, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE ADVERTISED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO TUE. THE SFC PG
TIGHTENS TUE AND PRODUCES BREEZY SW-W WINDS ACROSS THE FA
BY AFTERNOON THRU TUE NIGHT, WHICH IS MUCH BETTER THAN HAVING
A STAGNANT AIR MASS WHEN HEAT IS INVOLVED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE PRE-
DAWN WEDNESDAY HOURS.
NEXT ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES COME IN LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS FRONT MISSES OUT ON THE MAJORITY OF THE DIURNAL HEATING,
BUT IT APPEARS THE EXTRA MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY THAT GETS
INJECTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH
AN EMBEDDED MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO AID IN A
BETTER ORGANIZED STRUCTURE TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE
POTENTIALS POINT TOWARD STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN HERE. IN ADDITION, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL DEFINITELY BE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN. SPECIFICS ON THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT AS NEAR/SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BECOME MORE ENGAGED WITH IT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY FOG INLAND HAS STAYED JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME BRIEF RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE
AFTER SUNRISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF I-95.
COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. DEBRIS CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET SHOULD YIELD VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
SYNOPTICALLY RELAXED SFC PG THRU TONIGHT WILL YIELD SE-S WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR SHORE WHERE THE
MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL INCREASE WINDSPEEDS TO 10
TO POSSIBLY 15 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. FEW STORMS MAY
AFFECT THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MAINLAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED 5H S/W TROF. FOR TUE, THE
SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WED AS A
DECENT COLD FRONT, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, DROPS TO THE AREA
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE WATERS WED THRU FRI B4 SLOWLY
SNAKING BACK NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS BY THE WEEKEND.
NEVERTHELESS, THE ILM NC WATERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS LATE TUE AFTN THRU EARLY WED FROM MAINLY GUSTY SW-W
WINDS WITH A FEW 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THE
ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE 30-35 KT GUSTS
WITH 6 TO POSSIBLY FEW 7 FOOTERS POSSIBLE. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR
ALL WATERS WILL BE THE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUE AFTN AND THRU THE NIGHT. BY
WED AFTN THRU FRI, THE SFC PG WILL RELAX FORCING WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES DIFFUSE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN WINDS VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WILL IDENTIFY A PREDOMINATE DIRECTION IN
LIEU OF GOING VRBL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH
DISCUSSION...DCH/VAO
AVIATION...21
MARINE...DCH
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