996
FXUS62 KILM 060621
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED BUT OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC AS NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED; DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER IN NC THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NO APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC AS NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED; DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER IN NC THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
DESCRIPTION...LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST NC AS PER STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HOTTER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 30-35 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING ANY RAIN, WOULDN'T BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF AT
LEAST A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
SUN AFTN AS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A BIT GREATER THAN PAST DAYS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER MON COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS, ESPECIALLY INLAND PORTIONS OF NC, BUT LATEST
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWER RAIN CHANCES. LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU FRI, MAINLY
DUE TO AN INLAND TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE, BUT NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT, EXCEPT GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT AROUND THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU WED. VERY LOW RISK
FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM EARLY MORNING FOG THRU MON AM WITH A BIT
BETTER RISK FOR AT LEAST MVFR CIGS STARTING MON NIGHT BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS/STORMS (MAINLY AT KLBT MON PM
AND AT KLBT/KFLO TUE PM.
MARINE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS PRODUCING A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY CONCERN BEING ENHANCED GUSTINESS
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN/EVE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO AND/OR THROUGH THE AREA LATER MON/MON
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS EXPECTED WE DON'T SEE MUCH INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS AND NO
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THRU WED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB
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