830
FXUS62 KILM 131104
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
704 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A VERY STRONG JET WILL DIVE OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE
PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH THAT
CUTS OFF OVER MI BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND A DOWNSTREAM 250MB JET WILL DEVELOP, WHICH WE WILL BE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF. THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR A STRONGLY
FORCED SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD YIELD AT A MINIMUM OF DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS HAS LED TO SPC HIGHLIGHTING OUR AREA IN A FAIRLY
RARE DAY4 OUTLOOK (15%). SPC ALSO POINTS OUT THAT THE DEGREE OF
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THUS THE RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION/SUPERCELLS IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
IMPRESSIVE CAA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL TURN THE CALENDAR BACK
TO WINTER FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 50. EVEN OUR
LOWEST NORMAL HIGHS IN THE HEART OF JANUARY TEND TOWARDS THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE CHILLIEST WEATHER OF THIS COLD SNAP WILL
COME TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN ALL AREAS SAVE FOR THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING. AND ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON WILL
NOT HAVE OFFICIALLY STARTED MEANING NO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THE
RECENT STINT OF WARM WEATHER HAS PUT SOME FAUNA A BIT AHEAD OF
THE CURVE AND HAVE NO DOUBT THAT WE WILL HIT THE COLD HARD WITH
BRIEFINGS AHEAD OF TIME AND SPSS THE NIGHT OF.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 24 HR FCST PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MVFR/IFR FOG AND LIFR VVS AT LBT TERMINAL THRU 1330Z. OTHERWISE,
SKC WILL DOMINATE WITH PERIODICAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD THRU
THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF
STRATOCU OR LOW ALTOCU FOR THE CRE/MYR TERMINALS LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SEE A SLOW VEERING TREND FROM NE AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD TO SSW-SW BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 6 KT DURING THE NIGHT- TIME PERIOD TO AOB
10 KT DURING THE DAYTIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECKS, FIRST DURING SUN FROM A WFP, AND
SECOND DURING MON FROM A STRONG CFP WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS TO FURTHER DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE
RESPECTIVELY DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLING THE NC AND SC COASTS THIS MORNING,
WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK TO THE SW, EXTENDING AND REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS, HENCE THE S-SW WINDS BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT RELAXED, WITH WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 15 KT THRU THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING TO
AOB 10 KT LATER TODAY THRU TONIGHT. SEAS AT THEIR PEAK AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD, REMAIN IN A SUBSIDING TREND DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE WIND CHOP WILL SUBSIDE THIS PERIOD LEAVING A
FRESH/PSEUDO ENE-E SWELL AT 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL NOT BE A WELL
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
MEANING LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ON THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NE COAST AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE APPROACH OF A FRONT TRAILING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD RAMP WINDS AND/OR SEAS TO
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE SOLIDLY SO MONDAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT THOUGH COOL SST-
INDUCED STABILITY MAY SAY OTHERWISE. THE SHARP FRONTAL VEER
LATER MONDAY WILL STEEPEN WAVE FACES WHILE DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT
LIKELY DOESN'T FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS UNTIL TUESDAY IN
THE ONLY GRADUALLY ABATING NW FLOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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