227
FXUS62 KILM 091136
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EST THU JAN 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND BREEZY TODAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A BIT OF PRECIPITATION LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, INCLUDING SOME WINTRY MIX IN THE
INLAND AREAS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. BITTERLY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES MADE WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS CONTINUE
CONFIDENCE:
*HIGH
DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THIS PERIOD KEEPING THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTER A VERY COLD START TODAY WITH TEMPS DOWN
NEAR 20 FOR MANY INLAND AREAS WE SHOULD GAIN ABOUT 20 DEGREES TODAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP IT FEELING LIKE CHILLIER.
IN FACT, WIND CHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 15
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCALES AND THUS THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE IN CONTROL
MEANING LESS WIND AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AT
LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MOVE IN LATE. ULTIMATELY, THIS SHOULD MEAN EVEN LOWER TEMPS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SPOTS LIKE HOLLY
SHELTER/BACK ISLAND WHERE IT COULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AND
WE MAY NEED ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY INLAND PORTIONS OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES FOR
WIND CHILLS BACK TO 15 DEGREES OR LESS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ALL EYES ON THE APPROACHING SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING SOME WINTRY
MISCHIEF INTO OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS LOOK PRETTY MINOR AT
THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA,
CREATING A PINCHED, STOUT POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT,
STARTING AT 300 MB AND MOVING ITS WAY DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THIS PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG ALONG
THE GULF COAST UNTIL IT NEARS ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE, IT PULLS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF SAVANNAH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE DRAGGING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS (700 MB
TO THE SURFACE). THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH KEEPS THAT
LAYER DRY AT FIRST. CLOUDS PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, AND
VIRGA WILL START TO FALL, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE LOW
LAYER ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. LOOK FOR THAT TO
HAPPEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND, LOWER 40S AT THE COAST.
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS THE TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX (READ: NO SNOW). THERMAL PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE, PERHAPS FAVORING FREEZING RAIN A BIT
MORE THIS TIME AROUND. ICE AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD EVER SO
SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. AT THIS TIME,
AREAS WEST OF I-95 MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE AT CAPTURING A BIT MORE
ICE, WHILE THESE CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS YOU HEAD MORE
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES HOVER RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO NICHOLS TO ATKINSON.
EXPECTING MOSTLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN HERE, WITH A FEW
SLEET PELLETS ALSO POSSIBLE. ALL AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THAT LAKE
CITY TO NICHOLS TO ATKINSON LINE SHOULD SIMPLY SEE A COLD (BUT NOT
FREEZING) RAIN.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD KICK
UP ABOVE FREEZING BY 8-9 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING, SO ANY SLICK SPOTS
OUT THERE SHOULD MELT AWAY. SINCE ICE AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH, WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS
TIME.
WITH THOSE SMALLER ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, LOOK FOR A LIGHT GLAZE.
SOME ICE ON TREES AND POWERLINES IS LIKELY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON SIDEWALKS AND SOME ROADS, PARTICULARLY OVER
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. BE CAREFUL WHEN WALKING OR DRIVING.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR
THE SUN TO PEEK THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S INLAND, LOWER 50S AT
THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S INLAND, UPPER 20S AT THE COAST. LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
IN BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES TO GET INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS THEN MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, REINFORCING THE COLD AIR. HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S MOST
EVERYDAY, EXCEPT FOR MONDAY (LOW-TO-MID 50S). LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 20S. NO RAIN CHANCES TO SPEAK OF.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/10 AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS
UP TO AROUND 20 KT FROM ABOUT 14-21Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT
MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, POSSIBLY WITH SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP (MAINLY FRI EVE AT KLBT/KFLO).
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LEADING TO A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAKER COLD
ADVECTION. THUS, WE EXPECT IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
RUNS ITS COURSE LATER THIS MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NNW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS FRIDAY WITH SEAS AT 1-
2 FT. THINGS QUICKLY CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS GO SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING, AND THE GRADIENT
QUICKLY RISES. WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY HIT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, LASTING UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. AT ITS PEAK, SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT AT THE COAST, 6-8 FT OUT
20 NM FROM SHORE. FROM THERE, THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX AS THE
LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SEAS DROPPING DOWN TO 1-3 FT.
CLIMATE
ALTHOUGH OUR TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER HAVEN'T BEEN
EXCESSIVELY COLD FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE, WE'VE CERTAINLY
HAD MORE COLD NIGHTS THIS WINTER THAN WE'VE SEEN DURING RECENT
YEARS.
LOOKING AT THE NUMBER OF HARD FREEZES (28 DEGREES F OR LOWER) SINCE
NOVEMBER 2024, WE'VE ALREADY EXCEEDED THE COMPLETE SEASON TOTALS FROM
THE PAST TWO WINTERS -- 2022-2023 AND 2023-2024 -- IN WILMINGTON AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH!
WITH THE PROMISE OF MORE COLD TONIGHT AND COMING UP NEXT WEEK, WE'LL
LIKELY APPROACH THE LONG-TERM (30 YEAR) AVERAGE NUMBER OF HARD FREEZES
ALONG THE COAST WITH AT LEAST TWO MORE MONTHS TO GO BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM FOR GOOD IN THE SPRING.
NUMBER OF NIGHTS PER WINTER 28 DEG OR COLDER (AS OF JAN 9)
AVERAGE COMPLETE SO FAR THIS EXPECTED TOTAL BY
WINTER SEASON WINTER SEASON END OF THIS WEEK
WILMINGTON, NC 18 13 15
LUMBERTON, NC 27 14 15
N. MYRTLE BEACH, SC 14 12 12
FLORENCE, SC 22 14 15
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/IGB
CLIMATE...
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