302
FXUS62 KILM 172257
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
557 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND.
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS, BUT
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION TO ACCOUNT FOR 00Z TAFS. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
THEIR IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALSO ADDED A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH AND WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES
ASHORE EARLY THURSDAY IT MAY BE THE FOCAL POINT OF ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THROUGH MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST ALONG THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. SOON THEREAFTER (ABOUT 18Z) SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY KICK IN.
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN, INCREASING THE SENSE OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, AND SEVERAL VORACITY CENTERS IMPINGE UPON
THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEP CUTOFF ENTERING
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE EVEN A FEW DISJOINTED JET MAXIMA AT
250MB THURSDAY THAT MAY AID IN WHAT WILL STILL ONLY BE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF DEEPER CONVECTION. PW VALUES SURGE TO AN IMPRESSIVE
1.5" BY THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THE DATE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DEEP ATM MOISTURE PROFILE THRU MUCH OF THU NIGHT AS BOTH GULF
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ARE TAPPED. SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROF TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY DYNAMICS TO AID THIS PCPN EVENT AND HELP
COUNTER THE WEAK INSTABILITY AS TYPICAL DURING WINTER TIME
SYSTEMS. NEVERTHELESS, STRATIFORM RAINS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER STILL LOOKS FEASIBLE THU NIGHT. COULD SEE CONVECTIVE
GUSTS 40+ MPH FROM THESE STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD. QPF FOR THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TIME-LINE
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN TO OCCUR FROM THIS EVENT DURING
THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD, WILL RANGE FROM 0.50" TO 0.75". LOWS THU
NIGHT MAY HAVE TROUBLE DROPPING BELOW 60, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AS STRONG S-SW WINDS PUMP IN MILD TEMPS AND
HIER DEWPOINTS, HELPING TO FUEL THE POTENTIAL THUNDER. BY
SUNRISE FRI, MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE FA. BREEZY SW-W WINDS TO START FRI FOLLOWED BY
A CFP MID TO LATE MORNING, VEERING THE WINDS TO A GUSTY AND
BREEZY/WINDY NW DIRECTION LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH PCPN, IF ANY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE CFP. LOOKING AT A NICE
DRYING OUT PERIOD FRI AFTN AS PWS SUBMARINE FROM 1.5 INCHES
EARLY FRI MORNING TO LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.25 INCHES DURING
FRI AFTN. THUS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY BY FRI AFTN, AND CLEAR FRI
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE MIDDAY FRI, WITH A
FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE, SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTN
AS CAA HELPS COUNTER THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACTION. THE SFC PG
RELAXES FRI NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SHOULD OBSERVE WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 30S FOR FRI
NIGHT LOWS, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS POTENTIAL DECOUPLE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN SAT HRS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING SFC FEATURES
TO PROGRESS. THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OF THE CAROLINA COASTS SAT
FOLLOWED BY A CFP SUN, WITH THE CF ITSELF WELL AWAY FROM ITS
PARENT LOW IN CANADA. THIS CFP WILL BE A DRY ONE, WITH ONLY MID
OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SAT FOLLOWED BY
A WARMUP, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUN PRIOR TO THE CFP. CAA LATE SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT TO BRING BACK TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MON AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO
AMPLIFYING RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT MAY TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS, LOOKING AT A DECENT
MILDER/ABOVE NORMAL TREND FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT POTENTIALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED JUST NORTH OF
THE FA.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE A LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 03Z. MOST OF THE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND-PROGRESSING
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE TERMINALS WITH
KFLO HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP LATER
THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND AS A WARM
FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING IMPACT THE
AREA FROM THE WEST, STARTING MOSTLY IN SC AND THEN SPREADING
NORTH/EAST INTO NC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH LIKELY
STAYING SW OF KILM.
EXTENDED FORECAST... IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SHOWERS INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS AND
MOVES INLAND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL VEERING
OF WIND DIRECTION AS WELL AS WIND SPEED. BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
BE APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE CURRENT DOMINANT 9-10 SECOND SWELL WILL TAKE A BACKSEAT TO
THE INCREASING WIND CHOP THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE FA AS SSE-SSW WINDS HOWL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
GUSTS TO 30+ KT OVER SSTS IN THE 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MAY BE A BIT MORE DIFFICULT OVER NEARSHORE SSTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. HOWEVER THESE COOLER WATERS AND 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS
ADVECTING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OFF SURF CITY SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET THU
NIGHT. AS SW WINDS VEER TO W PRIOR TO THE CFP FRI, LOOK FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SEA FOG TO DISPERSE FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL PEAK IN
THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. AS WINDS BECOME NW
AFTER THE CFP, LOOK FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE GIVEN THE OFFSHORE WIND
TRAJECTORY.
WINDS DIMINISH TO A N-NE DIRECTION FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE
HIGHS CENTER SLIDES OFF THE VA-NC COASTS. RATHER MESSY PRESSURE
FIELD LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT, WILL LEAD TO A VARIABLE
DIRECTION, HOWEVER WILL HIGHLIGHT A "BEST" WIND DIRECTION IN THE
FCST. SEAS WILL FURTHER SUBSIDE TO A DRY CFP SLATED FOR SUN
FOLLOWED BY A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CAA SUN NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER SCA EVENT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 FT OR LESS SAT THRU
EARLY SUN FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING TREND THRU SUN NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RJB/MBB
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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