809
FXUS62 KILM 090515
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
115 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY WITH EVEN BETTER
STORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A FIXTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE IN DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE
PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE EAST WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN OUR
AREA, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST, WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED VERSUS WIDESPREAD. PWATS REMAIN
HIGH WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY (FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE
SUBSIDENCE CAP). A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST MAY APPROACH OUR
AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT THEM WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH I-95. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL CREATE ANOTHER HUMID DAY WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKE A GIVEN ON
THU. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 120-130%
OF NORMAL, AND 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING AS 5H TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL
ADD IN SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE HEATING PUSHES CAPE TO 2K-3K
J/KG. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CURTAIL COVERAGE A
BIT. IF THIS DRIER AIR DOES MANIFEST COVERAGE WOULD BE KNOCKED BACK
A PEG OR TWO, HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY INSTEAD OF LIKELY TO WIDESPREAD.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES FRI. MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY
ON THU IS 70-80% IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT BY FRI AFTERNOON THIS SAME
LAYER HAS HUMIDITY 30-40%. THE DRIER AIR IS A RESULT OF SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE SLOW MOVING 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON. STILL THINK STORMS WILL DEVELOP, THERE
IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CAPE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THU,
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER, AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT. JUST EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER
COMPARED TO THU. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT QUITE TYPICAL, THE RESULT WILL BE TYPICAL
JULY IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN OTHER WORDS, HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE, WHICH IS
COMMON, BUT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE COAST AND
MAYBE JUST OFF IT SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK WAVE OR
2 DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER
IN THE PERIOD THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST, WHERE THE TROUGH IS, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND FOR DAILY
BOUTS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE IFR/LOW MVFR STRATUS INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET. CEILINGS OF 700-1200 FT ARE
FORECASTED, AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN LBT AND FLO TAFS. DIURNAL
CUMULUS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS WITH SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY DUE TO AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AS
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
AROUND 3 FT, PREDOMINANTLY DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE, WITH 1 FT
LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL STILL PRESENT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SPEEDS DO DECREASE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
SUN, AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS WILL RUN 3-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN LATER SAT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO
THE SLIGHTLY DECREASED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
MIX OF A SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO
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