809  
FXUS62 KILM 090515  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
115 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY WITH EVEN BETTER  
STORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES  
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A FIXTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE  
OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE IN DEEP SOUTHERLY  
FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE  
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE  
PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. MID-  
LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE EAST WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN OUR  
AREA, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST, WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED VERSUS WIDESPREAD. PWATS REMAIN  
HIGH WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY (FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE  
SUBSIDENCE CAP). A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST MAY APPROACH OUR  
AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT THEM WEAKEN AS THEY  
REACH I-95. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW  
90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL CREATE ANOTHER HUMID DAY WITH  
HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY  
THRESHOLD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKE A GIVEN ON  
THU. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 120-130%  
OF NORMAL, AND 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING AS 5H TROUGH SLOWLY  
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL  
ADD IN SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE HEATING PUSHES CAPE TO 2K-3K  
J/KG. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CURTAIL COVERAGE A  
BIT. IF THIS DRIER AIR DOES MANIFEST COVERAGE WOULD BE KNOCKED BACK  
A PEG OR TWO, HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY INSTEAD OF LIKELY TO WIDESPREAD.  
 
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES FRI. MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY  
ON THU IS 70-80% IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT BY FRI AFTERNOON THIS SAME  
LAYER HAS HUMIDITY 30-40%. THE DRIER AIR IS A RESULT OF SOME WEAK  
SUBSIDENCE AS THE SLOW MOVING 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON. STILL THINK STORMS WILL DEVELOP, THERE  
IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CAPE VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THU,  
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER, AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE WILL  
STILL BE PRESENT. JUST EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER  
COMPARED TO THU. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EACH  
DAY WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT QUITE TYPICAL, THE RESULT WILL BE TYPICAL  
JULY IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN OTHER WORDS, HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE, WHICH IS  
COMMON, BUT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE COAST AND  
MAYBE JUST OFF IT SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE  
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK WAVE OR  
2 DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER  
IN THE PERIOD THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT CLOSER TO THE  
COAST, WHERE THE TROUGH IS, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SURFACE  
BASED INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND FOR DAILY  
BOUTS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PRODUCE IFR/LOW MVFR STRATUS INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING  
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET. CEILINGS OF 700-1200 FT ARE  
FORECASTED, AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN LBT AND FLO TAFS. DIURNAL  
CUMULUS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN OUT  
OF THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL  
AREAS WITH SEA BREEZE.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE EACH DAY DUE TO AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT...  
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AS  
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH  
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS  
AROUND 3 FT, PREDOMINANTLY DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE, WITH 1 FT  
LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL STILL PRESENT.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...  
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS INTO  
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE  
AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH DAYTIME  
HEATING. SPEEDS DO DECREASE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY  
SUN, AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE  
GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS WILL RUN 3-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND  
WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN LATER SAT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO  
THE SLIGHTLY DECREASED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A  
MIX OF A SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY WIND  
WAVE.  
 
 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...VAO  
SHORT TERM...III  
LONG TERM...III  
AVIATION...VAO  
MARINE...III/VAO  
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