306
FXUS62 KILM 261733
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
WET ONE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT THAT FINALLY PUSHED ACROSS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF NICE LATE SUMMER
DAYS/PERIODS IS NOW ON THE MOVE NORTH AGAIN. THIS WHEN COMBINED
WITH A GATHERING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SEEM TO TEAM UP WHEN SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT SOME GUIDANCE IS NOW
ADVERTISING A BRIEF CLEAN COLD PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRIER CONDITIONS. IF THIS WERE TO TAKE PLACE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY WANDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS HIGHS
STUBBORNINGLY WANT TO RETURN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
SOME CONVECTION IS NEARING THE GRAND STRAND REGION. OVERALL AS A
MUCH TALKED ABOUT COLD FRONT MOVES NORTH AGAIN POPS WILL
INCREASE AND MAY SEE SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. INLAND WILL BE MORE HIT AND MISS. USED
PROB 30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE CONVECTION AND SOME RESTRICTIONS
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE GROUPS ALTHOUGH ONLY BRIEFLY AS RELATIVELY
SPEAKING THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE
AREA AS WELL IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY COME DOWN A BIT BY SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT/MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT CLEAN
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT LEADING TO A BRIEF NE FLOW AFTER
AFTER ALL THE CALENDAR IS LATE AUGUST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
10-15 KNOTS AND THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY THREAT OF
HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/IGB
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