886
FXUS62 KILM 230653
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
253 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE HAZARDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE ADDITION OF A GALE WATCH
AND GALE WARNING OVER SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES, DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE/COASTAL
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES, DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE
DAYS OF COOL TEMPS, GUSTY NNE WINDS, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. DRY NW FLOW THEN
MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION
IN TEMPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT HIGHS BACK IN THE
LOW/MID 80S, BUT STILL WELL SHY OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WE HAD
EARLIER THIS MONTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
MARINE/COASTAL CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY
EAST OF NC. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDES
NORTHEASTWARD, WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THAT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH LEADING TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. STRONG NNE WINDS AND INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE
HIGH SURF IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS
REGARDING MARINE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO START OFF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH
A CAD SETUP DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD, ASIDE FROM SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS NEAR THE COAST WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME AT
THIS POINT. IF ANYTHING, CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS LEADING TO MORE IFR THAN MVFR. RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION, GUSTING AROUND ~20 KT AT TIMES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR W/ OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
INTO THURSDAY, THEN LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS LOW PRESSURE
PUSHES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MARINE
WORSENING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AND A CAD RIDGE OFF TO THE NORTH. MADE SOME CHANGES TO
THE HEADLINES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND BEING CLOSER IN TIME
TO THE STRONGEST WINDS...A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING TONIGHT OVER THE NC WATERS FROM 20-60 NM, AND A GALE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT STARTING THURSDAY AFTN FOR THE NC COASTAL
WATERS OUT 20 NM AND SC WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. CONFIDENCE IN
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 34 KT IS ABOUT 50% OVER THE WATCH AREA, AND
HEADLINES WILL BE FURTHER ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. WINDS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE, BUT MUCH IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ250-252-284.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ280.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
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