354
FXUS62 KILM 101828
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EARLY MORNING FOG ON LAND AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
2) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AS A STORMY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EARLY MORNING FOG ON LAND AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SEA
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SEA FOG EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEA FOG MAY MOVE
ONSHORE AND IMPACT COASTAL COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE
GRAND STRAND AND COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES MAY ALSO SUPPORT RADIATION FOG TONIGHT, WHICH COULD
BECOME DENSE IN SHELTERED AREAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ITS PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THE RISK FOR FOG ON LAND, ALTHOUGH AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
MAY STILL SEE SEA FOG REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNTIL WINDS ARE HIGH
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT FOG OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL TRANSITION TO MUCH
COOLER WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS A STORMY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AMIDST GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN
THIS UNUSUAL SETUP, HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH OR EXCEED THE
RECORDS FOR SITES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE OCEAN, WHERE MID-UPPER
80S ARE FORECAST. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE
WARMEST SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 90F. A STRONG SEA BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL, BUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP THIS
PINNED NEAR THE COAST OF EAST-FACING BEACHES.
THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A CUTOFF LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL OPEN UP EARLY
THURS WITH A AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH ON
THURS. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURS.
THE HIGH TEMP WILL COME EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO COOLER NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL COME EARLIER ON
THURS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHC OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE TIMING AND MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN
INCH.
COOLER NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR 70 AND WILL
DOWN IN THE 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE OVERNIGHT LOW
THURS NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST PLACES. TEMPS WILL BOUNCE
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRI WITH WARMING INTO THE THE
WEEKEND. AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE MONDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER RETURNING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS STEADY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. A 15-25 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT WINDS FROM GOING CALM FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD, INSTEAD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF CALM LATE IN THE NIGHT. DURING
THESE PERIODS OF CALM, MVFR TO IFR MIST MAY FORM BEFORE WINDS PICK
UP AND MIX IT OUT. SEA FOG MAY ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCRE (WITH LIFR TO VLIFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AT THE
SAME TIME), BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN WHEN SEA FOG WILL REDEVELOP
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 12-13Z TOMORROW WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF FOG COULD BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD ADVECT
INTO THE GRAND STRAND TERMINALS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH THE WINDS. A
SOUTHEASTERLY 9 SEC SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES BECOMING DOMINANT BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM
GUSTY SW TO NW BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT BY LATE THURS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING AND THEN NORTHERLY INTO THURS NIGHT. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL END THE SEA FOG, BUT GUSTS REACHING 25
KTS PRE AND POST FROPA WITH SEAS RISING TO 4 TO 6 FT WED NIGHT,
WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL PICK UP
AGAIN, ALONG WITH SEAS OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS:
......................TUE MAR 10 ... WED MAR 11
THU MAR 12
WILMINGTON NC......... 88 IN 1974 ... 86 IN 2016 ... 87 IN 1990
LUMBERTON NC.......... 87 IN 1974 ... 87 IN 1925 ... 85 IN 1925
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC.... 76 IN 2017 ... 82 IN 1997 ... 80 IN 1943
FLORENCE SC........... 92 IN 1974 ... 86 IN 2015 ... 88 IN 1990
LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/ABW
DISCUSSION...RGZ/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page