508
FXUS62 KILM 180556
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
156 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST. KEY MESSAGES LARGELY
UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1)TODAY WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES TO PARTS OF
THE AREA AND POSES A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
- 2) SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA AND POSES A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... HOT WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 105 DEGREES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONT TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF RAIN, MAINLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. FINALLY, DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND DRY
FUELS A STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR
NC COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BIG STORY THIS VALID TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY FROM 5 TO 10 KT PRESENTLY TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 BY ABOUT MIDDAY. ON THE PLUS SIDE, IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR UNTIL THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFT ABOUT 19Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME RESTRICTIONS THU NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT DUE TO MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR EXPECTED LATER SAT THRU MON.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW IN THE NEAR TERM, GETTING BOLSTERED TODAY
INTO FRIDAY BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. WITHIN THIS PERIOD OF
INCREASED WINDS THERE WILL BE SOME HARD-TO-TIME FLUCTUATIONS WHERE
PART OR ALL OF THE AREA COULD FALL SUB-ADVISORY WITH WINDS. FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGS A COLD FROPA AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THAT WILL BE
QUITE BRIEF BEFORE VEERING BEGINS. SWELL ENERGY THROUGH MOST OF THE
ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINS OFFSHORE KEEPING DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS 6-7
SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
MARINE...31
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