326
FXUS62 KILM 111838
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
238 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET EAST OF I-95,
WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISK STILL IN PLACE PRIMARILY FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WINDS, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH INCREASING HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH INCREASING HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOLLOWING TODAY'S RAINFALL, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY ASIDE FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPR-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL STAY OFF TO
THE NORTH HOWEVER, KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAIN THERE AS WELL, BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT 50-70% POPS.
NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE UPR 70S MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND THEN ENSUES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWING UPR-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LATEST FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND
AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET MAY IMPACT COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH 22-23Z, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES, AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR ILM, CRE, AND MYR.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE DOWN THE NC COASTLINE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO ILM AND POSSIBLY
DOWN TO CRE AND MYR. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 4Z
TONIGHT, WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS
TURN NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, VEERING TO EASTERLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INCREASES WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT, MAINLY
BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z FOR 0-20NM WATERS AND 0Z AND 14Z FOR 20-60NM
OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS TURN EASTERLY AND WEAKEN TO 15-20 KTS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT, WITH 2-3 FT SEAS RIGHT BEFORE SUNSET INCREASING TO
4-6 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH 6-9 FT SEAS FORECASTED FOR
20-60NM WATERS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE ENE FRESH SWELL GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS, WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FOLLOWING THE SCA THAT ENDS
LATE TUESDAY, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS MUCH OF
THE TIME, ASIDE FROM A COLD FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS ONLY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK CAA AND WINDS FAR SHORT OF CRITERIA ON
THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
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