412
FXUS62 KILM 210649
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
249 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK
WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MONDAY.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTS TO EXPAND NORTH
TODAY, PEAKING IN STRENGTH MON. SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. THE SUBSIDENCE, LEADING TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
AND STABILITY, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY TUE DENTS THE RIDGE, BUT ENHANCED
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN MON. WARMTH
WILL ALSO EXTEND TO THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE PINNED BY
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SIMILAR TO MON THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
ONE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STORMS AND WHILE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
HEAT, DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LOT OF COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE STARTS TO INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR
LOW STRATUS OR FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SC THIS MORNING; NOT NEARLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WINDS UP TO ~10 KT DURING THE DAY,
HIGHEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK STARTING MONDAY.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES NECESSARY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS TODAY ALLOWING FOR
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO
TIGHTEN UP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, WITH SSW GUSTS UP
TO 20-23 KT MONDAY AFTN. THE FRONT DROPS IN LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DECREASE A BIT, AND WITH
A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING SCA CONDITIONS
MID WEEK. A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE
FORECAST, WITH THE PERIOD GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE AS THE WIND WAVE STARTS TO
TRANSITION TO A SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...III/MAS
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
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