533
FXUS62 KILM 140745
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY A
DISSIPATED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH LEADING TO MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER INCLUDING A NEARLY RAIN-FREE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE RECOVERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW LEVEL SW-WSW JET HAS KEPT SFC WINDS ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, IN TURN KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W TROF ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING, IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ILM CWA FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID-EVENING. WITH
PWS IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES, A HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND SFC
BOUNDARIES IE. PRE-FRONTAL TROF, SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PLAGUE THE FA LATER THIS MORNING THRU ATLEAST
MID-EVENING. TSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH HIER THAN WED. WITH
LIKELY BACK-BUILDING AND/OR TRAINING OF PCPN ACTIVITY...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS SOME LOCALES, MINOR
(FLS) FLOODING TO POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (FFW)
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. POPS TO RUN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ECLIPSE 90 ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE
CLOUDS AND PCPN SETTLE IN. THE EMBEDDED S/W TROF TO FINALLY
SLIDE OFF THE NC/SC COAST BY MIDNIGHT, TAKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE PCPN WITH IT. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LIMITING THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. TONIGHTS
LOWS, IN THE 70-75 RANGE WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL REMAIN 2"+ OVER THE AREA BUT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAYS OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID-
LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE COVERAGE FOR OUR SE NC
AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE TYPICAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY, DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UP TO MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA LEADING TO A
GRADUALLY DRYING COLUMN AND LOWER DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MONDAY IS EVEN LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL START TO RECOVER TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A SWATH OF MOISTURE
MOVES IN AHEAD OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, ERIN
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ON THE CURRENT TRACK IS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE STARTING A NORTHWARD TURN. IT'S FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOMETIME SATURDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALL WE HAVE FOR MIDWEEK WHERE IT WILL BE APPROACHING US.
THE GFS MAINTAINS IT STAYING WELL OFFSHORE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTH AND KEEPS IT OUT AT SEA. THE EURO HAS SHIFTED THE
TRACK SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, TAKING IT CLOSER TO OUR COAST. WITH THIS
TRACK, I WILL MAINTAIN MESSAGING OF ENHANCED RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM. MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS WAVEHEIGHTS INCREASE.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ACTIVE SW-WSW LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT TO A
MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. LOOKING AT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AND
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN THE PREVIOUS
DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC. ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
RUN FROM LATER THIS MORNING THRU ATLEAST MID-EVENING. 5H S/W
TROF AND SEVERAL SFC BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE NECESSARY
DYNAMICS/FORCING TO SUSTAIN THE DAYS CONVECTION. REDUCED
HORIZONTAL VSBY EXPECTED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE
THE CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS USED
TO IDENTIFY THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SYNOPTIC WINDS GENERALLY SW-
WSW 10 KT OR LESS. THE SEA BREEZE, PREFRONTAL TROF DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA, AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WILL MAKE WINDS,
ESPECIALLY DIRECTIONS, DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. IN LIEU OF GOING
VRB, HAVE IDENTIFIED THE BEST DIRECTION POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CONVECTION FRI AND SAT, FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS COULD ALSO CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FRI AND
SAT MORNINGS. VFR TO DOMINATE SUN THRU MON IN THE WAKE OF A CFP
THAT OCCURS SAT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND A LOW LEVEL SW-WSW JET
(THRU MID MORNING) WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE SW WIND AT THE OCEAN SFC
THRUOUT TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
OFF THE MAINLAND LATER THIS MORNING, ANDS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF WILL DROP
TO THE NC-SC COAST DURING TONIGHT, WHEREBY KEEPING AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE WATERS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF
A MID-LEVEL S/W PASSAGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT, WITH SHORT
PERIOD 5 SECONDS OR LESS WIND WAVES TO DOMINATE. AN UNDERLYING,
SMALL, 9 SECOND PERIOD E-SE SWELL WILL REMAIN ACTIVE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SW FLOW ~10 KTS WILL BECOME NE WIND DURING
SATURDAY AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE NE SURGE WILL INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS TO ~10-15 KTS WITH A SLIGHT LULL ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL BE
GENERALLY 2-3 FT, INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY TO 2-4 FT. SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIN COULD REACH THE WATERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY,
INCREASING IN STRENGTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE SE SWELL COULD BE ~15-17
SECONDS INCREASING IN STRENGTH MONDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LEW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/LEW
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