058
FXUS62 KILM 051106
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHAT'S LEFT OF AN UPR-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE AREA WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN TODAY, HOWEVER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES
ALOFT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF CHANCE/LIKELY POPS.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, ACTIVITY THIS MORNING IS
FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, AND WILL TRANSITION MORE
INLAND LATER IN THE DAY, HOWEVER WITH EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING, BUT VERY ISOLATED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SHOULD SLOW-MOVING, HEAVY RAINFALL MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SIMILAR POPS FOR THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, BEFORE MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CHANCES OF RAIN (SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS) RETURN
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING
INTO THE 90S.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE DAY LEAVING
A LOWER CHC LATER TODAY, MAINLY INLAND. MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
MVFR CIGS, BUT VSBYS DID DROP TO IFR BRIEFLY IN SPOTS. FLO AND
LBT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME IFR/LIFR MAINLY IN LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG. SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS, BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTN WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KT, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE VFR.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PERIODIC SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING STRATUS EACH DAY.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT FAIRLY LIGHT S/SE FLOW AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCKED IN PLACE OFF TO THE EAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN PLACE EVERY DAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/RGZ
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...MAS/RGZ
MARINE...MAS
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