544
FXUS62 KILM 051052
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TODAY WILL SEE THE LAST OF 80 DEGREE TEMPS FOR AWHILE AS A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
- 2) MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TODAY WILL SEE THE LAST OF THE 80 DEGREE
TEMPS FOR AWHILE AS A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL
BE PRECEDED BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STRONG T-STORMS.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED TODAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGING
OF THE PAST 5 DAYS BREAKS DOWN AS A DIGGING UPPER TROF EXPANDS
TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING SFC COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST THAT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BREAK 80 ONCE
AGAIN TODAY, EXCEPT 70S AT THE COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REACH
THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH INCREASING ATL MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND TAPPING OF THE GULF IN THE MID-LEVELS. WILL
SEE THE DEMISE OF THE ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OF THE PAST
WEEK THAT HELPED KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. PROGGED MLCAPE OF
500-1000 WILL OCCUR BY THIS AFTN/EVENING AND WITH DECENT LIFT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN, FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. WITH 35 TO 45 KT LOW
LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. QPF AMOUNTS NOW THRU LATE TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED
HIER AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING, AND MUCH COOLER, DRIER
AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 70
DEGREES MONDAY, INCREASING A COUPLE OF TICKS BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NO RAIN TO BOOT. THIS
FRONT WILL SIMPLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR, WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGHS ONLY GET
INTO THE MID 60S.
LOWS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT, WITH TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO BE
THE CHILLIEST (BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 40 INLAND). FAIR AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT COULD BE EVEN COLD THAT NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN PARTS OF ROBESON, BLADEN, AND
PENDER COUNTIES. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CREATE SOME FROST
CONCERNS, BUT GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, WHICH WOULD
LARGELY PREVENT FROST FROM SETTLING IN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED HERE, BUT ULTIMATELY, THIS IS NOT THE
MOST IDEAL SETUP FOR FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 3
TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KICKS OFFSHORE, ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP. MEANWHILE, MODEST RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN FROM
THE GULF. TEMPERATURES START TO KICK UP THURSDAY, INCREASING
EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S
BECOME THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WITH POSSIBLE PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS TO RUN FROM 12Z THRU
14Z. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING ACTIVE THIS MORNING, DO
NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE. BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN, THE
INLAND TERMINALS WILL SEE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING
AOA MVFR. HOWEVER, CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 06Z MON FOLLOWED BY THE CFP ITSELF. MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR AS DRIER AIR AND CAA
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY SSW 5 TO 10 KT, INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 KT G25 KT AFTER 14Z AND CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING. DURING THE CFP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW AROUND 10 KT AND TO THE N-NNE
DURING THE PREDAWN MON HRS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL OFFSHORE DURING
THE PREDAWN MON HRS. LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT ON
NORTHERLY WINDS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD. FIRST, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SE SWELL COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP WILL COMBINE TO COME CLOSE TO 6 FT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
THIS OCCURRENCE BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION ITS POSSIBILITY. THE
BETTER PROSPECTS OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR POST CFP WHERE CAA
AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG MAY PRODUCE 25+ KT GUSTS ACROSS MILDER
LOCAL SSTS. LOCAL SSTS HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY THE PAST 5
DAYS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE SE-S FLOW. THIS ILLUSTRATED
WELL BY THE LATEST SST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS. THE GUSTY S-SSW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NW TO N AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE FREQUENT 25+ KT
WIND GUSTS AFTER THE CFP THAT COULD RESULT IN A SHORT TERM SCA
THREAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS IT
PUSHES OFF THE MAINLAND LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING THAT
MAY PRODUCE STRONG 34+ WIND GUSTS THAT MAY REQUIRE SMW
ISSUANCES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND A STIFF NNE WIND AT 20+ KTS. GRADIENT
WINDS LOOSEN UP BY THE AFTERNOON, VEERING MORE TOWARDS THE NE,
COMING DOWN TO BELOW 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS AT 3-5 FT
COME DOWN TO 2-4 FT BY THIS POINT. GRADIENT WINDS START TO COME
BACK UP AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS KICK UP TO 10-15 KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT HITS A FEVER PITCH TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS AND SEAS WON'T HAVE A PROBLEM
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TERRITORY (SUSTAINED WINDS 25+
KTS, AND SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT). GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT MESSY
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALE GUSTS, BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES MAY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC.
WINDS AND SEAS COME DOWN EVER SO SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
CLIMATE
AFTER REPEATED ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, LOCAL
YEAR-TO-DATE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON FEBRUARY 10 WERE AS MUCH
AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECENT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
MARCH AND NOW CONTINUING INTO APRIL HAVE ERASED VIRTUALLY ALL OF
THIS ANOMALOUS COLD. YTD TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THROUGH APRIL 3
ARE NOW +0.3 DEGREES IN WILMINGTON, +0.1 DEGREES IN NORTH MYRTLE
BEACH AND LUMBERTON, BUT STILL -0.2 DEGREES IN FLORENCE.
CPC OUTLOOKS ACROSS THE 6-10 DAY, 8-14 DAY, AND 3-4 WEEK
TIMEFRAMES ALL SHOW AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, IMPLYING LOCAL CITIES SHOULD
HAVE GROWING POSITIVE YTD TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BY THE END OF
THE MONTH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/IGB
DISCUSSION...DCH/IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB
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