975
FXUS62 KILM 301031
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES FOR THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR DOWNTOWN CAPE FEAR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1)DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BREAK FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY
2) WET AND UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BREAK FROM
THE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT, NW FLOW ON THE BACK-
SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL RANGE OF
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MORE TOLERABLE AS
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE COAST. BY SATURDAY, THE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WET AND UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF INTO A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERSPREADS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
BISECTING THE AREA. THIS SET-UP COULD BRIEF SOME MUCH NEEDED DROUGHT
RELIEF, WITH RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
STARTING SUNDAY AS A MID/UPR-LEVEL TROUGH, POSSIBLY A CLOSED LOW
SETTLES OVER TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE, BRIEFLY
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-
3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WILL INCREASE TO 17 TO 22
KNOTS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 TO 28 KTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. IN RESPONSE, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE WATERS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CBL
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/CBL
DISCUSSION...MBB/CBL
AVIATION...MAS/CBL
MARINE...MBB/CBL
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