185
FXUS62 KMHX 161316
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
916 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SYNOPSIS
A DIFFUSE FRONT BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RETREAT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN, THE AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING TROUGH ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS,
AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 915 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED UP INIT TEMPS A BIT BUT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGE WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS CONT WITH HEAT
ADVRY ALL AREAS. WDLY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INLAND THIS AFTN AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND WITH GOOD INSTAB IN
PLACE.
PREV DISC...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK DIFFUSE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WILL LIFT NORTH/DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AND IF ANYTHING IT WILL BE A TOUCH
WARMER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE SECTIONS WHERE WINDS WILL NO LONGER
BE ONSHORE. HIGH EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
AROUND 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE PEAKING AROUND
3000-3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIATION
PRIMARILY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, BUT COULD BE ENHANCED SOME
LATE AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10-15 KT AND MOST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDGING OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA COULD KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW STORMS CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT, MOST ARE
DRY AND WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SULTRY
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMER SURFACE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT THIS WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AS
UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF HOT AND HUMID AIR ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE THU
INTO FRI AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MOVE THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC.
WEDNESDAY...HOT AND VERY HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE REGIME. EASTERN NC
WILL REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A WEAK
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AOA 20C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, SO WILL
CONTINUE 20-30% POPS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRECIP.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TC BARRY ARE PROGGED TO
BECOME ABSORBED INTO MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AS IT LIFTS INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OPENING INTO A WAVE AND PUSHING ACROSS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG A
FRONT. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW THU/THU NIGHT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE 40% POPS BOTH DAYS. CONTINUED HOT AND VERY HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105
DEGREES. SULTRY LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED HOT AND VERY HUMID. HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S INLAND/LOW 90S COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
90S INLAND SAT AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW
20S C. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND AROUND 105 DEGREES MON. SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SULTRY MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUESDAY...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BURN OFF BEFORE 13Z. PRED VFR EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOL TO
SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AS IT MIGRATES INLAND, BUT COULD BE ENHANCED BY WEAK
MID- LEVEL ENERGY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SO CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND,
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THU
AND FRI. PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH
MORNING, ESP. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM TUESDAY...CURRENT CONDITIONS ABOUT AS TRANQUIL AS
WILL SEE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATER TODAY BUT REMAIN MAINLY AOB 15 KTS.
PREV DISC... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTH/DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING S AROUND 10-15 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1-2 FT TODAY AND BUILD TO 2-3 FT
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING
MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SW FLOW 15-20 KT DEVELOPING LATE
WED AND PERSISTING INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT WED TO 3-4 FT WED NIGHT AND 3-5 FT FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN GUSTS TO 25
KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARINE ZONES THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
THE LATEST NWPS AND WW3 WAVE MODELS WERE FORECASTING SEAS TO 5
FT, BUT JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WOULD RESULT IN
SEAS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page