690
FXUS62 KMHX 270011
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
811 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 SAT AND SUN.
2) MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY PM.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WAA REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED SSW WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO
ENC. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
GENERALLY AROUND 1410-1425M WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH DAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
PEAK AROUND 100-105 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL NOTE WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY SAT/SUN, MENTIONED IN KEY
MESSAGE 2 BELOW, THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN
EXPLICIT HEAT INDEX VALUES. SO WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SAT/SUN, IT IS NOT A GIVEN AS THESE VALUES
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ENSEMBLE PROBS, WILL HOLD OFF
ON HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW. SUNDAY CHANCES ARE HIGHEST SOUTH OF
WHERE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENDS UP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND
THERE WONT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF YOU HAVE ANY
EXTENDED PLANS OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO STAY PROPERLY
HYDRATED AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS WHEN OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION ONGOING FROM CHARLESTON TO
VIRGINIA BEACH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIURNALLY
STABILIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND/LOWERING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. THAT SAID, UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE COMPLETELY MOVES AWAY FROM ENC, THERE WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK OF WEAK CONVECTION, AND
THIS RISK COULD EXTEND WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
SAT, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
CAROLINAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THIS IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(40-60%). ON TOP OF THAT, WITH CONTINUED SW'RLY FLOW, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAXIMIZE ON SAT/SUN AND WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG SAT AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500-3000
J/KG. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON SAT
CLOSER TO 25-35 KTS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BRINGING A THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS AND
GUSTY WINDS (40-60 MPH) WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5)
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON,
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR WEAKENING MCS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE W/NW AFTER SUNSET, KEEPING SVR THREAT GOING
INTO LATER EVENING.
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BRING THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. BACKDOOR FRONT
LOOKS TO TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ONCE AGAIN CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AXIS WILL BE BUT FOR NOW ONLY EXPECTING
SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOTE GIVEN THE NATURE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT ANY OF THESE
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY BEING HIT OR MISS ACROSS THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS HEAT TO ENC STARTING AROUND WED NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. GEFS PROBS OF HIGH TEMPS >
100F HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 30-50% FOR INLAND LOCALES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE, EPS PROBS HAVE TRENDED DOWN
TO NEAR 0% THROUGH JULY 3RD FOR ENC, WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95. NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES OF REACHING
MAJOR HEAT RISK LEVELS OR HIGHER ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT
40-60% ON WED, 70-90% ON THURS, AND 80-90% ON FRI/SAT WHICH IS
FAIRLY NOTABLE GIVEN THE HIGHER END VALUES THIS FAR OUT. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WOULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE CAROLINAS IN A
HIGH RISK OF EXTREME HEAT JULY 2-4.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLUSTERS OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS ENC AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, I'VE FOCUSED THE TSRA
RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE
THIS NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME WITHIN THE TAFS. LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP. IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A SLAM-DUNK SETUP FOR
LOW CIGS, BUT THE PATTERN IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES, I OPTED NOT TO DIFFER MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ENC ON
SATURDAY. LIKE TODAY, THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF TSRA
JUST ABOUT AT ANY POINT IN THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON HOURS. STAY
TUNED FOR TAF UPDATES AND AMENDMENTS AS THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OF NOTE, TSRA THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF 30-50KT WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED): COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ANY
AREA IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. A FRONT THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN BRINGING A BIGGER THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, BY MON VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST INTO TUE.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 5-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS WILL TO 10-20 KT THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT. MODERATE TO BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SAT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA FOR NOW BUT
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER SHIFTS.
OUTLOOK (SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED): PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THERMAL GRADIENT SATURDAY PM BRINGS A RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS WITH SW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. GULF STREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NE ON SUN AND MON FROM
N TO S BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD/RJ
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...CQD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page