446
FXUS62 KMHX 160558
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
158 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPS.
2) THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE
TODAY, PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE SAT MORNING, S'RLY FLOW SETS UP AND ALLOWS
FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA. AS A
RESULT, A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO MID NEXT
WEEK. MAXTS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE BEACHES
AND INTO THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND AND 80S FOR THE
BEACHES. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE CLOSE. THESE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. SCHC OF PRECIP WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN REGARD
TO TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR FROPA THIS FAR OUT, BUT
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FRONT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CROSS LATE THU INTO FRI. COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ARE
HIGHER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, SO LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BRING A LOW END RISK OF SOME SHALLOW
DITCH/GROUND FOG AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE, I WILL HAVE TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS FOR OAJ AND EWN 8-12Z, WITH TEMPO 6SM FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD FURTHER INLAND AT ISO, PGV. ON SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD GET A BUMP UP WITH THE SEABREEZE AS IT DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND WITH GUSTS AOA 15 KT OR SO BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO TEMPO PERIODS OF LOW
CIGS/STRATUS OVER THE WEEKEND LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, A DAILY SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS. WITH DRY HIGH PRES IN PLACE, NO
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH CHANCES BELOW 10%. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS IS THURSDAY.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT WINDS 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH WINDS
BECOMING SSW. LIGHT SSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY, INCREASING TO 10-20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THERMAL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY AND WARMING FORECAST INTO
MID WEEK. MOSTLY S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SSW WINDS IN THE MORNINGS,
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT AND SEA/SOUND BREEZES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAINING 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...CQD
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