358
FXUS62 KMHX 011217
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
717 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SLOWLY STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. CHANGED POPS
TO REFLECT THE SLOWER TREND, AND ADJUSTED END TIMES FOR WS.W AND
HW.W TO REFLECT CURRENT FORECAST. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAJOR WINTER STORM ONGOING WITH LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE DUMPING SNOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
A) HEAVY SNOW:
HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS ENDING WEST OF HWY 17, WITH AREAS EAST OF
HWY 17 STILL PRIMED TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" AS A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES CREEPS EASTWARD. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WHICH WILL PRODUCE NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND EVEN LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX. BY SUNRISE, SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF HWY 17, FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 10AM.
B) WIND:
THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOMB CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NC, ESPECIALLY THE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS
HAVE REACHED AROUND 40 MPH INLAND, AND 50-60 MPH ALONG OBX AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND SOME WEAKER TREES BLOWN
DOWN.
C) EXTREME COLD:
MORE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED DURING AND AFTER THE WINTER
STORM, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 0 THIS MORNING AND
MONDAY MORNING, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE IN THE DAYTIME TODAY.
D) COASTAL FLOODING:
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
FOR AREAS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND, MAXIMIZED DURING HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
2) MARINE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC
COAST. STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS, ALONG WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS 10-20 FEET FOR COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1A-1B...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM STARTS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
NC COAST AND MOVES AWAY. SNOW HAS BEGUN TO WIND DOWN WEST OF
HWY 17 , AS A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5" WEST OF HWY 17, 2-4" EAST OF
HWY 17. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CONTINUE, WITH TRAVEL BEING EXTREMELY
TREACHEROUS. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY DAYS, AS
MELTING SNOW MONDAY ONWARDS WILL REFREEZE EACH NIGHT BRINGING A
RISK OF BLACK ICE AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAJOR IMPACTS OBSERVED FROM THE HEAVY SNOW,
VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OFF THE NC COAST. THESE STRONG WINDS HAVE FURTHER
REDUCED VISIBILITIES, LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AND
COULD LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTER
BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY.
POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS: THE COMBINATION OF THESE
HAZARDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE
THREATENING SITUATIONS IF MOTORISTS BECOME STRANDED DUE TO THE
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OBSERVED. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN CARTERET AND DARE
COUNTIES AND CONTINUE TO BE A RISK DUE TO STRONG WINDS/HEAVY
SNOW KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES AND/OR TREES. POWER RESTORATION
IS SLOW DUE TO TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS, AND RESIDENTS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER TERM POWER OUTAGES WITH
EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE.
HISTORICALLY, THIS STORM'S SETUP IS MOST LIKE THE DECEMBER 24, 1989
AND EARLY MARCH 1980 STORMS. BOTH OF THESE HISTORIC EVENTS PRODUCED
12+" OF SNOW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE MARCH 1980 STORM NEARING 24" IN SOME AREAS. WHILE GETTING
REPORTS OF 24" IS UNLIKELY ONCE THE SUN RISES, WE HAVE SEEN
WIDESPREAD 10+", LIKELY TO BECOME 12+" AS MORE MORNING
OBSERVATIONS COME IN. THIS EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK WILL NOT MELT
QUICKLY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING
UNTIL MONDAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1C...
EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND BEHIND THE WINTER STORM
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SET ADDITIONAL NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS WILL BE 10-20F, POTENTIALLY
SINGLE DIGIT IN AREAS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK, TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE SUB- ZERO TO
SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
TODAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE
SOME INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING INTO TUESDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS, EXPECTED TO
REACH ZERO OR BELOW ZERO BY SUNRISE. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MANY DAYS, AS MELTING SNOW MONDAY ONWARDS WILL
REFREEZE EACH NIGHT BRINGING A RISK OF BLACK ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 1D...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS, WAVE ACTION, AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE THIS
MORNING. IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON THE OCEANSIDE MAINLY
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND TRANSITION TO SOUNDSIDE, MAINLY SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET AS WINDS BACK FROM NE TO NW INTO SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NC-12,
ESPECIALLY FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. ALL COASTAL FLOOD
PRODUCTS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT; WARNINGS ACROSS DOWNEAST
CARTERET NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OBX, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 2-4 FT OF INUNDATION (ABOVE GROUND LEVEL). A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND PAMLICO
COUNTIES FOR A THREAT FOR 1-2 FT INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
AS STRONG NE TO N WINDS PILE UP WATER ALONG THE MOUTH OF THE
NEUSE. AT THIS TIME, GREATEST OCEANSIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM
DUCK TO OCRACOKE...AND SOUNDSIDE IMPACTS FROM RODANTHE TO
DOWNEAST CARTERET. MINOR WATER RISES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR CONT FOR THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN AS -SN AND LOW CIGS CONT.
VFR NOW FOR KISO AND KPGV AS SNOW HAS ENDED AND LOW CIGS LIFTED.
WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONT INTO THE MORNING BEFORE WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MID NEXT WEEK,
THROUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL.
MARINE
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY.
LATEST OBS SHOW NNW WINDS 20-40 KT GUSTING 40-60 KT, WITH SEAS
10-20 FT. STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
MORNING/NOON. THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS COASTAL WATERS OFF OF HATTERAS
ISLAND COULD SEE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS (> 64KTS) OUTSIDE
OF 15NM FROM THE COAST. THE BRIEF DURATION AND LACK OF AREA
COVERAGE PRECLUDED ANY UPGRADE FROM STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE
FORCE MARINE WARNINGS. BOATING CONDITIONS ARE TREACHEROUS FOR
ALL MARINE TRAFFIC THROUGH TODAY.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 6+ FT
SEAS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SET TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK, DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS YET
AGAIN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/02 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 19 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 20 1977 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 12 1971 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 13 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 16 1980 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 02/03 (TUESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 15 1980 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 15 1917 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 9 1917 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
KINSTON 12 1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 18 1980 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ029-044-045-
079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ045-080-081-
094-194-195.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ046-
047-196-203>205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ046-047.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ094-194.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ196.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ196.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-204.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NCZ203>205.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-135-137-
230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB/RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...CQD/CEB/RJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page