642
FXUS62 KMHX 292318
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK.
INCREASED SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
2) DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THIS 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE
NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, LIGHT NERLY FLOW AND PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR SEASONABLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW
80S COAST ON TUESDAY, AND WARM SLOWLY INTO THE 90 DEGREE RANGE
INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE WARMING, RELATIVELY LOW TD'S IN
THE 60S WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL MUCH HOTTER, WITH HEAT INDICES NO
HIGHER THAN THE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND
100 BY FRIDAY AS TEMPS CONT TO WARM THROUGH THE 90S. LOWS WILL
BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS INLAND, WITH LOW 70S COAST, RISING TO
THE MID/UPR 60S INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE ADVERTISED HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD INTO ENC
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME
WITH LATEST 29/12Z GUIDANCE, WITH READINGS STAYING BELOW RECORD
VALUES. DESPITE THIS, HIGH IMPACT HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED,
AS THE PEAK OF IT WILL BE DURING THE BUSY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY) WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S INLAND, POSSIBLY REACHING 100 IN SOME LOCALES,
WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TOWARDS THE 105 DEGREE MARK
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
WARM DUE TO THE INCREASED TD'S, WITH LOWS AROUND 80 NEAR THE
COAST, AND MID 70S INTERIOR.
NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
IN THE MAJOR (COAST) TO EXTREME (INLAND) RANGE. THE CHANCE FOR
EXTREME HEAT RISK IS AROUND 60-80% INLAND ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMPOUNDING DAYS AND LITTLE RELIEF DURING THE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING
ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, A CAP WILL DEVELOP
WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM RELIEF ESP ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND ZONES, BUT THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS ONLY 20-30% AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE OBX THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE, ACROSS MUCH OF
ENC. GUIDANCE SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL (50-70% CHANCE) OF SUB-VFR
CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES, INCLUDING A RISK OF IFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN
ONGOING SUB-VFR OBS ACROSS THE OBX, THE STRONG SIGNAL IN
GUIDANCE, AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR LOW CIGS, I OPTED TO KEEP
THE TAFS PRETTY MUCH AS IS. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS TO ARRIVE
SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE LOW CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY. OF NOTE, THOUGH,
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON THAT
CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT): DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS, BUT COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRES IN VICINITY.
MARINE
SEAS HAVE BEEN OVER-PERFORMING SOME WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SWELL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE
HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SEAS FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS RECENT TREND. THIS INCREASED TREND PUTS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS CLOSER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, BUT IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF 6FT+ SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE
OF 20NM IN THOSE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE WILL CONT TO PRODUCE
NERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH EARLY TUE. COULD SEE OCNL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ESP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. SOME
6 FT SETS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE CTRL WATERS BETWEEN
OCRACOKE AND OREGON INLET, AND THUS THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL CONT AT 2-5 FT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH TUE.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES
DOMINANT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
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