015
FXUS62 KMHX 020728
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS, AND ENDED PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS ENC SLIGHTLY EARLIER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ENC THIS MORNING AS A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARDS WHILE DEEPENING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND A LOW END THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENC.
MARINE: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED ALONG THE OBX WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS ENC.
IN ADDITION TO THIS, WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WHILE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WINDS REMAIN N'RLY. TO THE
WEST A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF SC AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE AREA.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AS GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL BECOME NEUTRALLY AND EVENTUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE
SAME TIME, SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAMS PHASE
ALLOWING FOR LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARDS JUST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO ENC STARTING LATER
THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
BE ALONG THE COAST AND OBX WITH AMOUNTS LOWERING THE FURTHER
INLAND YOU GO. WITH THIS IN MIND, ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 1" OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRIMARILY BE RELEGATED TO EAST OF HWY 17
TODAY.
STILL ANTICIPATING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO REMAIN EITHER ALONG THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE TODAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING PROFILES MORE
STABLE OVER LAND, THIS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL RATES LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY WHEN PAIRED WITH
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY GET
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS GETTING INTO THE 40S
INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE OBX. AFTER TODAY, WE DO SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND N'RLY
WINDS SWITCH TO A S'RLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR WAA TO OVERSPREAD
ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH IN THE PLAINS TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURS. AT THE SURFACE, A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE'WARDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION. EFI AND MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE PROBS ARE HIGHEST IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SE US THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS, LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS THURS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW IT IS
TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF STORMS WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND GIVE UPDATES AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OFFSHORE. ALL
TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT VFR, BUT CIGS AND VIS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR BEFORE OR AROUND SUNRISE AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE, DROPPING TO IFR BY 12- 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE
MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST (10-20% CHANCE) THIS MORNING. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 00Z WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
EVENING, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND BEING
OFFSHORE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
10-20 KT S-SE WINDS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS NOTED TO THE EAST
OF THE TROUGH. A N'RLY WIND AT 5-10 KTS IS NOTED TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
AS A DEEPENING LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE SC TRACKS NE'WARDS
AND MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY, BUT THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME N'RLY
ACROSS ALL WATERS AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS TO OUR WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE INLAND RIVERS WHERE
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COASTAL LOW, BUT THESE GUSTS APPEAR INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A GALE MENTION. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD FROM 3-5 FT THIS
MORNING TO 4-8 FT THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ELEVATED
WINDS. THIS LOW THEN QUICKLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO A NW'RLY DIRECTION
AND LOWER TO 10-15 KTS BY SUN WITH GUSTS DECREASING TO 15-20
KTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS OUR WATERS
INTO SUNDAY AS WELL, BUT SHOULD LOWER BELOW 6 FT BY SUN EVENING.
AS A RESULT, THIS WILL END ALL SCA'S ACROSS OUR WATERS BY SUN
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING TO OUR EAST WILL BRING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 KTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND IT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...RCF
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