452
FXUS62 KMHX 062343
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ENDED THE LAST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG OUR
COASTAL WATERS BUT HAVE SINCE REPLACED THESE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WITH GALE WATCHES ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF
CITY UP TO OREGON INLET AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEUSE/BAY RIVERS. HAVE ALSO ADDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE REST OF OUR AREA WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED WINDS TO ENC THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
FORECAST AFTERWARDS.
MARINE...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BRINGING A THREAT FOR A MIX OF GALES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA WATERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS
ENC TONIGHT. HIGH CIRRUS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF GIVEN THE STEADY SW FLOW ALOFT. AS
WE GET INTO TUE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF THEN RIDING ENE'WARDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON WED. AT
THE SAME TIME, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG HIGH AND DEPARTING
FRONT/ LOW WILL BRING A RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE
AREA BRINGING COOL NE'RLY WINDS TO ENC. GIVEN THE DIRECTION OF
THE WINDS THIS WILL BRING A RELATIVELY COOL MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER ENC KEEPING TEMPS BELOW AVG THROUGH WED AS HIGH TEMPS ONLY
GET INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON TUE AND THEN MID 50S TO 60S ON
WED. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FROM THURS ONWARDS AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASE, THOUGH NE'RLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY
(20-25KT), ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A BROAD CIRRUS PLUME WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD, RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO VIS TONIGHT DUE TO BR/MIFG. SIGNIFICANT FG IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA.
MARINE
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS OUR WATERS. OBS CURRENTLY SHOW
5-15 KT NE WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS
ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE
AND OUT TO SEA TONIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO OUR WATERS BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTH TUE NIGHT.
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF
EVENTUALLY RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING RAPIDLY DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS TO
OUR WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
N-NE'RLY AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30-35
KTS ACROSS OUR WATERS BRINGING A MIX OF GALE FORCE AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR OUR WATERS. CURRENTLY HAVE A GALE
WATCH UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY UP TO OREGON
INLET AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE RIVER AS THESE
AREAS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE TO SEE 35+ KT WIND GUSTS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE ELSE AS WIND
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 KTS HERE. WILL NOTE, THERE IS
LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS TUE NIGHT SO WHILE GALE WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY UP COULD SEE
AN UPGRADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR GALE WARNINGS DEPENDING
ON FORECAST TRENDS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WINDS TO 6-10 FT.
OUTLOOK: ONCE THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOP EXPECT
CONTINUED STRONG NE WINDS AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND
25-30 KTS ACROSS OUR WATERS FROM WED EVENING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED BETWEEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND FRONT/LOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN 6+ FT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. WHILE GALES WILL HAVE LIKELY COME TO
AN END BY WED AFTERNOON, SCA'S WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ135-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ136.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RCF
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