507  
FXUS62 KMHX 070250  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
1050 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A RETURN TO  
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION FORMED  
FROM DUPLIN TO SOUTHERN BLADEN COUNTY, AND WILL PUSH OFF THE  
ONSLOW/CARTERET COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. NO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS  
OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL  
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, AND WHILE  
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED, FOG MAY FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT OBSERVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW  
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PIVOTING SOUTH THROUGH  
THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY, DROPPING A  
WEAK SFC FRONT INTO ENC IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS A BIT  
BETTER WITH HIGHER PWATS FORECAST, BUT FORCING IS STILL WEAK  
INITIALLY. HAVE HELD BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON,  
CLOSER TO EVENING, AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  
CONVECTIVE CHANCES HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH, AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS  
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE  
AFTERNOON. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL BISECT THE CENTRAL CWA BY  
LATER AFTERNOON, AND THUS VERY LIMITED TO NIL CAPES WILL RESIDE  
ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND THUS THUNDER MENTION IS  
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWER  
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,  
MAINLY SETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL  
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OMEGA-LIKE BLOCKING PATTERN SETS  
UP OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK,WITH A  
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST.  
 
A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING BROAD LIFT TO THE  
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A  
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE  
BRIEFLY STALLING NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND DEEP  
MOISTURE, AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE  
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US HWY 17  
SEEING A MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR  
TWO, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE BEING  
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.  
 
UPPER SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM  
THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAINLY ALONG THE  
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON REMAIN POSSIBLE.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NORTHEAST H5 FLOW BRINGS DRIER  
AIR ALOFT FRIDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDING MORE ZONAL  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTH, WITH TEMPS TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER FRIDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY AND DRY/SETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 
CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST SUNDAY, MOVING ACROSS  
THE EASTERN US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL  
VARIABILITY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH  
OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
THE REGION TO BE IMPACTED BY A ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY REMAINS. HAVE OPTED TO PERSISTENT CHANCE POPS FOR THE  
TIME BEING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...  
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. SHOWERS PRIMED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OAJ AND  
SOUTH, WHICH MAY LEAD TO BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT IF  
WINDS DECOUPLE/REMAIN LIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE FROM  
THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF  
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH NO GUIDANCE HINTED AT  
VIS OR CIGS DROPPING BELOW VFR DURING THE PERIOD, THE SMOKE IS  
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.  
 
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SUN/...  
AS OF 315 AM TUE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT  
WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING  
PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,  
THE POTENTIAL FOR AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...  
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE  
SW WINDS MAINLY 10-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 23-25 KT.  
ANTICIPATED IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME  
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM N TO S ON WED AS A BACK DOOR  
COOL FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS. THE FRONT WILL  
MAKE IT TO THE CRYSTAL COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OUT LATE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN/...  
AS OF 4 AM TUE...OVERALL FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND WEEKEND WITH ONLY WEAK  
SURFACE FEATURES BRINGING PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS,  
WITH GUSTIER CONDITIONS NEARSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE  
DEVELOPMENT MOST AFTERNOONS.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL  
SHORT TERM...TL  
LONG TERM...CB  
AVIATION...DAG/TL/CB  
MARINE...DAG/TL/CB  
 
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