735
FXUS62 KMHX 102336
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
736 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATED FOR 11/00Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
2) MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA.
3) BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NOTABLY WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BENEATH
ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ENC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE NORTHERN OBX WHERE A SLOWING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO
THE AREA LEADING TO A "COOLER" NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. IN THAT AREA,
I WENT BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO REFLECT HIGHS NOT GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS THE REST OF ENC WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING HUMIDITY
ON FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT AT
100- 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED, BUT THE RISK
AREA APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ON FRIDAY, A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
ENCROACHING ON ENC FROM VIRGINIA. GUIDANCE IS MIXED REGARDING
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE, IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THAT
THE FRONT WON'T MAKE MUCH HEADWAY THROUGH ENC. MEANWHILE,
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT STEP UP IN THE
RISK OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS MAY
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
AS WE GET A GLANCING INFLUENCE FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET THAT WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH. WHILE THE FOCUS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE WHERE THE FRONT STALLS, IT STANDS TO
REASON THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP, LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG THE SEABREEZE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE MODEST (AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE), BUT WITH SOME RESIDUALLY
DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGHER DCAPE, THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SATURDAY, WITH PWATS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOVE 2". THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEABREEZE, A DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE, AND INLAND TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION COMPARED TO FRIDAY. THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INLAND TROUGH. IF THE INLAND TROUGH ENDS UP WEAKER, THE COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION MAY BE LOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
REGARDLESS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND MINOR, NUISANCE-STLYE
FLOODING. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MODEST, AND THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW.
ON SUNDAY, THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD FINALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH
THROUGH ALL OF ENC AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. A CONTINUED MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A NOTABLY
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
NEXT WEEK FAVORING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS CIGS GO, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONT TO SHOW MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-60% CHANCE) OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH INTO THE AREA. SOMETIMES GUIDANCE CAN
BE TOO QUICK TO DEVELOP LOW CIGS IN THIS SETUP. IN LIGHT OF ALL
OF THE ABOVE, CONT A SCT015 LAYER LATE TONIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT
WHEN THIS RISK MAY DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM ON
THE SEABREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND PROPAGATE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FCST ATTM.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASING RISK OF TSRA
THIS WEEKEND. A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TSRA RISK AS WELL. PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND DRYING CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
15- 20KT ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST WATERS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 25KT FOR GUSTS, AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE PAMLICO SOUND AND NEARBY
WATERS SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAY DOWN SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WITH A SOMEWHAT
RELAXED GRADIENT. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY, THOUGH, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
STRONGEST.
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN SHIFTS TO THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS, ESPECIALLY THE
ALLIGATOR/ALBEMARLE/CROATAN/ROANOKE WATERS.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE STALLED AROUND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT NORTH OF ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN COME BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS AND
SOUNDS. THE RISK THEN SHIFTS SOUTH AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ENSUES BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN LASTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM
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