682  
FXUS62 KMHX 181835  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
235 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH  
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING  
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
- DANGEROUS HEAT TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS  
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA (AS OF 2PM). A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS  
RESIDES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS ALL OF ENC THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG  
AND PWATS OF 2- 2.25". DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK (10-20KT), BUT  
IS RELATIVELY STRONGER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.  
 
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT,  
AIDED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER WAVE PASSING WELL TO  
THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN AREA OF  
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WITH A LOCAL MAX IN CONVERGENCE  
WHERE THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE VARIOUS SEA/SOUND/RIVER  
BREEZES. WE'RE CURRENTLY SEEING THIS IN ACTION ACROSS THE NRN  
OBX WHERE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING. TO THE WEST  
AND SOUTH OF THAT AREA, VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MODEST  
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT SUSTAINED CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP  
DUE TO WEAKER CONVERGENCE. WITH TIME, I EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO  
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE  
AREA, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL EXPANSION IN THE  
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY,  
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  
 
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL STORM MOTIONS, HIGH PWATS, AND A DEEP WARM  
CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES,  
WHICH FAVORS HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF RAIN  
FOCUSED ALONG THE HWY 264 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WHERE TRAINING  
CONVECTION OCCURS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-7" ARE WITHIN THE REALM  
OF POSSIBILITY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2-4" OVER A 6HR  
PERIOD, WHICH IS WELL WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR RAINFALL  
TODAY. THIS, THEN, APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF FLOODING AND FLASH  
FLOODING, AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO LOOK SOLID FOR THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF ENC.  
 
MEANWHILE, DETERMINISTIC, MACHINE LEARNING, AND ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE SHOW A MODERATE TO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WATER-LOADED  
DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE TALLEST AND MOST SUSTAINED CORES TODAY.  
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION APPEARS  
SUPPORTIVE OF WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS, WHICH ADDS TO THE  
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY BRINGS IN A LOW-  
END RISK OF LARGE HAIL (UP TO QUARTER SIZE).  
 
THE MAIN QUESTION MARK THROUGH TONIGHT IS HOW WIDESPREAD THE  
CONVECTION WILL BE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED BETWEEN 1) SCATTERED  
CONVECTION LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND 2) A LARGER CONVECTIVE  
COMPLEX DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA. THE  
POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE THE SAME REGARDLESS, BUT SCENARIO 2 WOULD  
LEAD TO A LARGER AREA AT RISK.  
 
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY 105-110 DEGREES  
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION, AND THE DANGEROUS HEAT  
WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...  
 
THE LATEST EXPECTATION IS FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE  
STALLED OVER, OR JUST SOUTH, OF ENC AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY  
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE  
DAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  
THE COMBINATION OF THE ADVANCING FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD  
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. THAT SAID, IF  
CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WIDESPREAD, THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER ON  
SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE. THE AIRMASS ON  
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY, SO WHERE  
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, THERE SHOULD BE A SUBSEQUENT RISK OF  
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING.  
 
DANGEROUS HEAT IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER,  
WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY NOT GET QUITE AS HOT AND  
HUMID AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THERE IS A RISK OF DANGEROUS  
HEAT AREAWIDE, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS SOUTH OF HWY 70, AND A  
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS.  
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH  
FASTER THAN FORECAST AND/OR IF CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT ISN'T  
AS WIDESPREAD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES...  
 
- HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
 
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND.  
 
- ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NC/VA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
SITS TO OUR SOUTH. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE  
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ALONG THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
BRINGING ELEVATED RAIN/TSTORM PROBS THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY  
RIDGING WEAKENS OVER ENC WITH THE SW SHIFT OF THE HIGH, BRINGING  
TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH (BUT STILL FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA). MONDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
REGION, INCREASING POPS TO ABOVE CLIMO AS ADDITIONAL FORCING IS  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DRIES UP THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, BRINGING  
POPS DOWN AS STORM COVERAGE ALONG BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO BE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROP TO THE UPPER  
60S, LEADING TO A VERY PLEASANT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER ENC NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- INCREASED TSRA RISK THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO ENC THROUGH  
TONIGHT, SUPPORTING AN INCREASED RISK OF TSRA. CONFIDENCE IN  
TSRA IS HIGHEST FROM KPGV/KISO TO KFFA. SOUTH OF THERE,  
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I ADJUSTED THE TAFS TO  
REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KOAJ AND KEWN, AND HIGHER  
CONFIDENCE AT KPGV AND KISO. WHERE TSRA OCCUR, THERE WILL BE A  
RISK OF LIFR CONDITIONS AND 40-50KT WINDS. THERE IS A LOW-END  
RISK OF HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER AS WELL. BEHIND THE FRONT,  
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A  
WARM FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL TSRA RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, BUT  
MOST LIKELY FOCUSED AFTER 18Z.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING WITH IT REDUCED VIS AND  
CIGS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. TSTORMS COULD ALSO BRING FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE WILL BE  
A FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT AT NIGHT AS WELL WITH LIGHT TO CALM  
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS, EXACERBATED BY ANY AREAS THAT SEE  
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 230 PM FRI... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NOTED TO THE NORTH  
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BEACH VICINITY AS OF THIS UPDATE. THIS FRONT  
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP S'WARDS THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING EVENTUALLY STALLING TONIGHT ALONG OUR NORTHERN  
SOUNDS AND WATERS BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT.  
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WE ALREADY HAVE ONGOING SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS, BUT  
DO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY  
SPREAD S'WARDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS  
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,  
SMALL HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR TWO. SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.  
OTHERWISE, RECENT OBS GENERALLY SHOW WINDS COMING FROM A WSW TO  
SW'RLY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS SUCH AS THE  
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL WATERS NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY HAVE  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS CLOSER TO 10-20 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS  
UP NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES. DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE SCA'S AND ANY 25  
KT GUST WILL LIKELY BE INFREQUENT IN NATURE. AS WE GET INTO  
TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE  
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR NORTHERN WATERS WITH 5-15  
KT SW'RLY WINDS EXPECTED ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS THE  
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SAT, WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BECOME  
S-SW'RLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS. SEAS ALONG OUR  
COASTAL WATERS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND RIDGING WEAKENS,  
ALLOWING SW`RLY WINDS TO REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS ON SUN. MONDAY  
MORNING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING BEHIND IT  
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20KT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.  
SEAS 2-4 FT EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST  
PROBS SATURDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...  
 
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL STORM MOTIONS, HIGH PWATS, AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD  
LAYER WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES THROUGH  
TONIGHT, WHICH FAVORS HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FLOODING. ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF  
RAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE HWY 264 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WHERE TRAINING  
CONVECTION OCCURS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-7" ARE WITHIN THE  
REALM OF POSSIBILITY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2-4" OVER A  
6HR PERIOD, WHICH IS WELL WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR  
RAINFALL TODAY. THIS, THEN, APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF FLOODING AND  
FLASH FLOODING, AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO LOOK SOLID FOR  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF ENC.  
 
AN ADDITIONAL FLOOD RISK MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING  
ON HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS, AND IF IT OCCURS OVER THE SAME  
AREAS HIT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-  
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-044>047-080-081-  
203-205.  
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ079-  
090>092-094-193>196-198-199.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RM  
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...RJ  
AVIATION...RM/RJ  
MARINE...RM/RCF/RJ  
HYDROLOGY...MHX  
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