028
FXUS62 KMHX 090611
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WEATHER REGIME RETURNS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 210 AM SAT...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFF THE NC COAST.
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY, AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT, KEEPING NE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH
LITTLE FORCING OTHER THAN LOCAL SEA/SOUND BREEZES, EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED,
WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF HWY 70. NE FLOW AND PC/MC SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ALONG THE BEACHES, AND LOW TO MID 80S INLAND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH, AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT, WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SUN MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 105 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHIFT BACK TO MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY MID-WEEK.
- ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN BY MID-
WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR EASTERN NC LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG
BUT A SMALL BUT POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL LOW MIGRATES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST THROUGH MONDAY. OFFSHORE TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE IN TANDEM WITH SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS
STILL HOVERING AROUND 2"), SO IN THEORY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES,
MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND ESPECIALLY THE CRYSTAL
COAST. WHERE THE OFFSHORE TROUGH SITS, AND THUS AXIS OF
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE MAKER -
IQR SPREAD SITS AT BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH. FOR NOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
LIKELIES FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST FOR SUN AND MON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE DOES WEAKEN SOME AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE BREAKS OF SUN,
BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. MORE TYPICAL, LIMITED COVERAGE PRECIP
CHANCES EXPECTED FROM HERE AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHEN.
NBM TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO HOT WITH POPS IN THIS REGIME AND
ADJUSTED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO CLIMO. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO AROUND AVERAGE, AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY PEAK
HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100-105 DEGREES.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM SAT...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREA OF MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY SPREADING
WESTWARD. ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SUB-VFR CIGS, WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESP FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. NE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT
ANY FOG THREAT THIS MORNING. LIGHT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. RIGHT NOW COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
STRONGER SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUN MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM SAT...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AVIATION PATTERN IN
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY VFR IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EVENING HOURS, PUNCTUATED BY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST ODDS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW MIGRATES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST,
BEFORE RETURNING TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL COVERAGE FROM TUES
ONWARD. THREAT OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG CONTINUES BOTH SUN
AND MON MORNINGS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SAT...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO CHURN UP WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING, WHILE SEAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN BELOW SCA. NE WINDS
REMAIN AT AROUND 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF AROUND 6-7 FEET NORTH OF
THE CAPE AND 4-5 FEET SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WIND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND
CAD WEDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED INLAND FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. MAY
SOME SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT LIKELIHOOD IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXTENSION OF SCAS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY EASES TONIGHT AS WEDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN WITH WINDS FALLING TO 10-15 KT.
SCAS FOR INLAND WATERS AND SEAS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET WERE
DROPPED BASED ON OBS. ELEVATED SEAS NECESSITATE SCA CONTINUING
NORTH OF THE INLET THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SAT...BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL NE 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS
3-5 FT. WINDS BECOME GENERALLY EASTERLY MONDAY, AND THEN SE
TUESDAY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. BY WEDNESDAY, WE RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS STEADILY FALL TO 2-4 FEET BY TUESDAY AND
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...MS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page