710
FXUS62 KMHX 080238
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, AND A COASTAL LOW MAY
DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BACK IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 10 PM TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST OFF
THE NC COAST TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED, THOUGH WINDS HAVE RESTRENGTHENED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER BECOMING CALM EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THIS HAS LED TO A REBOUND IN CURRENT READINGS AFTER A QUICK
COOLDOWN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AGAIN
INLAND OVERNIGHT, AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP LOW 40S BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG COOLING SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 70, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SHALLOW AND NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY....WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN NC
WED WITH SW/W FLOW OCCURING AHEAD OF A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT STALLS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW 60S BEACHES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY-SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, TO NEAR RECORD, TEMPS STILL APPEAR LIKELY. ALONG THE
FRONT, THERE IS STILL A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, SO WE'LL SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS. PERHAPS MORE NOTABLE,
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, AND IT
NOW APPEARS PRECIP MAY LAST FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.
FORECAST DETAILS: RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
(SFC) WILL SUPPORT DRY, BENIGN CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. BLENDED
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT LOW WITH HIGHS, BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE WARMING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES, SO NO DEVIATIONS WERE MADE.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY
PERIOD.
A DECIDEDLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BY
THURSDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS. AN INITIAL ZONE OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP ALONG THE EASTERN NC
(ENC) COASTLINE. BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING, THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE WEAK SFC LOW/BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THEN, THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING
TO SHOW A DRIER FORECAST ON THURSDAY OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN EVEN
MILDER DAY PROVIDED WE GET SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
REGARDLESS, SOUTHERLY FLOW PLUS ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. GIVEN THE PATTERN, I WENT ABOVE
BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THURSDAY, LEANING CLOSER TO THE
75TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE. IF WE GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, HIGHS
COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH COULD FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE DATE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) NOSING
INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEEPENING LAYER OF MOISTURE,
WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.25"-1.50" OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH MODEST WAA AND TRANSIENT AREAS OF LOW-
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE, BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW-MID 60S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND MAY ONLY SUPPORT 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
ACTUALLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION, SO
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, A ZONE OF STRONGER FRONTAL FORCING WILL ARRIVE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS
FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAA/FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT REGIME. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED UP
BY A FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IT'S THAT
FINAL BAND OF PRECIP THAT MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTION WITH IT,
DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING. DESPITE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BACKING OFF SOME ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL,
ANALOG GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOOSE SIGNAL, SYNOPTICALLY, FOR AT
LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
BOTTOM LINE, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL THERE, BUT PERHAPS
NOT AS NOTABLE AS BEFORE. STAY TUNED...
WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED THE MOST IS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GENERAL THEME IS A SLIGHTLY MORE
CLOSED OFF, AND SLOWER, WAVE WHICH MAY ALLOW PRECIP TO LINGER
FURTHER INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY DEFORMATION ZONE
DRIVEN. FOR NOW, TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM FOR P-TYPE CONCERNS AS IT WILL
BE A COLD-AIR-CHASING-THE-MOISTURE SCENARIO, AND WE'LL KEEP THE
PRECIP ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.
AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS, POTENTIALLY WITH A FAIRLY QUICK RECOVERY BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM TUES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL BE ACROSS KOAJ AND
KISO WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT
WITH THE STRONG COOLING. SOON AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE, AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASED RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY-
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVE
THROUGH. THE THU-SAT PERIOD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WITH TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE (MAINLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT).
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...SCA'S CONTINUE FOR ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT THEN A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE WATERS LATE WED, STALLING OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND IN THE EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, WINDS TONIGHT WILL START OUT SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT,
THEN BECOME W/SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON
WED, W WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY 5-10 KT LATE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SOUNDS, AND W
AROUND 10 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART
WILL REMAIN AOA 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SWELL FROM A DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW ARRIVES
BEFORE CURRENT ELEVATED SEAS CAN SUBSIDE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
* A LONGER-DURATION PERIOD OF IMPACTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA
WATERS, ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL WATERS, THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK*
THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE MULTIPLE HAZARDS OCCURRING OVER AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. THE INITIAL IMPACTS WILL COME FROM LONG-PERIOD SWELL
ARRIVING FROM A DEEP COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE. IN THE "LONG TERM"
PERIOD, THE HIGHEST WAVES WITH THIS SWELL WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY,
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH 6-8 FT SEAS. THE SEAS
WILL LAY DOWN SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW 6 FT
FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE QUICKLY REBUILDING TO 6+ FT ON THURSDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
FURTHER INCREASE, PEAKING ON FRIDAY WITH 25-35KT GUSTS EXPECTED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS (ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH AS 25-35KT).
DURING THIS TIME, SEAS WILL REACH 5-9 FT, AND INLAND RIVERS AND
SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF 40KT+ GUSTS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE HAZARDS, LONGER-
DURATION MARINE HEADLINES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/SGK
MARINE...RM/JME
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