168
FXUS62 KMHX 230201
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2021
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
AND THEN STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING
BACK ONSHORE AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1000 PM TUE...THE COLD FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
NOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDS FROM NEAR WILMINGTON, NC TO DUCK,
NC AND IS PUSHING SLOWLY EAST. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE A FEW BRIEF
DOWNPOURS ARE STILL LIKELY UNTIL THEN, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS HAS ENDED NOW THAT THE BOUNDARY HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OFF THE COAST EARLY WED WITH
THE THREAT FOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNRISE. WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL
BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE 60S IN MOST SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS
FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NE FLOW SUPPORT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS 75-80 DEG.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 AM TUES...A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR COASTAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK CLOSER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST OFF
THE NC COAST FOR THIS PERIOD, AND THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW
ITS LOCATION A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE, MEANING SMALLER RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER THURSDAY, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE
COASTAL PLAIN REMAINING MOSTLY DRY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH NE FLOW AND LOWER LOW LEVEL
HEIGHTS. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOW 80S ACROSS DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL PIVOT
INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, LEADING TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY SPREADING INLAND OVER TIME. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED. EXPECT SCATTERED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE DAY, LEAVING THE
COASTAL AREAS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
NORMAL, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED INLAND, AND MOSTLY MID
80S ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
AS FREQUENT SHOWERS PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. WE EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AFTER 10
PM AT THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES, WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH TIMING OF THE IFR IS A BIT
TRICKY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WED AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 5 KT OR LESS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO
10-20 KT MID WED MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SOME SUB- VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUE...THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE FLOW NOW COMING OUT OF THE N
10-15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT BY 11 PM. SEAS
WERE 4-7 FT. COMBO OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL ENERGY WITH OBS
REPORTING LONG PERIOD SWELL 2-33 FT/17 SEC. N WINDS 10-15 KT
THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 15-25
KT EARLY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. SEAS 4-7 FT THROUGH
THE DAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUES...WINDS AND SEAS THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BECOME NE 10-20 KTS, WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
LATER THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SE THURSDAY NIGHT AT
AROUND 10 KTS, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/SGK
AVIATION...JME/CQD/SGK
MARINE...JME/CQD/SGK
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