719
FXUS62 KMHX 250614
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
214 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO ENC TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM THURS...PUSHED FORECAST TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
CONSIDERABLY AS EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONTINUES INLAND.
OVERALL LOWS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE, BUT WOULD STILL NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPPER 30S IN MORE WELL SHELTERED AREAS.
ALONG THE OBX, LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 50 THANKS TO A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTH BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 4 PM THURS...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY BUT
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
WITH LIGHT N'RLY FLOW AND WEAK CAA BEING OFFSET BY CLEAR SKIES
ON FRIDAY, EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL AS HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY. WE'LL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ON SATURDAY AS WE'LL SPEND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY UNDER WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS
FROPA, SO POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE (<25%). IF ANY
PRECIPITATION DOES MATERIALIZE, IT LIKELY WON'T OCCUR UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND OFFSHORE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER AND WE'LL
RETURN TO AN AUTUMN AIR MASS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HOST TEMPS
IN THE 60S WITH CRISP DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
COASTAL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY, WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL
AREAS, BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY WILL
ALSO START A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPS NEARLY REACHING 80 AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...ASIDE FROM SHALLOW FOG AT KPGV, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AT PGV DESPITE BEING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OUR CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE (LOWEST AFTERNOON DEWPOINT), WE HAVE SEEN IFR
CONDITIONS SINCE 05Z. WITH TEMPS ONLY FALLING A BIT MORE THROUGH
DAWN, EXPECT VARYING CONDITIONS BUT PERIODS OF IFR FOG TO
CONTINUE. IT IS QUITE SHALLOW HOWEVER WITH AREA WEBCAMS NOT
SHOWING ANY FOG AT ALL.
SKC TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:30 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE
THREAT OF SUB- VFR CIGS AND VIS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND DROPPED THE SCA HERE, ALTHOUGH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
15-25KT N'RLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH 10-20 KT WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUNDS AND RIVERS. AS WE GET INTO LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR THE N'RLY WINDS TO EASE
FURTHER ACROSS ALL WATERS DOWN TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND
15-20 KTS BY FRI MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME SW'RLY AT ABOUT 5-10
KTS.
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY LOWERING DOWN TO 3-6 FT BY FRI
EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FROPA ON SATURDAY BUT WILL PEAK BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. SEAS WILL RESPOND DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL WITH 6 FOOTERS (7 FT FOR CENTRAL WATERS) RETURNING TO
ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE CENTRAL WATERS
POSSIBLY HANGING ONTO SCA SEAS THROUGH THE DAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...EH/OJC
MARINE...RCF/OJC
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