168  
FXUS62 KMHX 230201  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
1001 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,  
AND THEN STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING  
BACK ONSHORE AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 1000 PM TUE...THE COLD FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW  
NOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE LARGE  
PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDS FROM NEAR WILMINGTON, NC TO DUCK,  
NC AND IS PUSHING SLOWLY EAST. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF  
HOURS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH MORE  
PRONOUNCED DRYING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE A FEW BRIEF  
DOWNPOURS ARE STILL LIKELY UNTIL THEN, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS HAS ENDED NOW THAT THE BOUNDARY HAS  
SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA.  
 
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OFF THE COAST EARLY WED WITH  
THE THREAT FOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH  
SUNRISE. WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL  
BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE 60S IN MOST SPOTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 3 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS  
FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT.  
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH  
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. ISOLATED COASTAL  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGH  
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NE FLOW SUPPORT BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS 75-80 DEG.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 AM TUES...A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL  
CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT  
OFFSHORE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR COASTAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND THURSDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY  
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS BACK CLOSER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM  
POSSIBLE.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST OFF  
THE NC COAST FOR THIS PERIOD, AND THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW  
ITS LOCATION A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE, MEANING SMALLER RAIN  
CHANCES FOR THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER THURSDAY, RAIN  
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE  
COASTAL PLAIN REMAINING MOSTLY DRY.  
 
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH NE FLOW AND LOWER LOW LEVEL  
HEIGHTS. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE  
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOW 80S ACROSS DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL PIVOT  
INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, LEADING TO MORE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH  
FRIDAY SPREADING INLAND OVER TIME. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN  
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE DAY.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE  
AREA SATURDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MORE TYPICAL  
SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED. EXPECT SCATTERED NOCTURNAL  
CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST, WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE DAY, LEAVING THE  
COASTAL AREAS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND  
NORMAL, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED INLAND, AND MOSTLY MID  
80S ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 715 PM TUE...RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES  
AS FREQUENT SHOWERS PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR  
CONDITIONS. WE EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AFTER 10  
PM AT THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. AFTER  
THE FRONT PASSES, WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATE  
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH TIMING OF THE IFR IS A BIT  
TRICKY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WED AS  
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 5 KT OR LESS  
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO  
10-20 KT MID WED MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 315 AM TUES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
THURSDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE  
SOME SUB- VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DUE TO A STALLED FRONT  
OFFSHORE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY  
LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY, AND TO A  
LESSER EXTENT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 1000 PM TUE...THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE FLOW NOW COMING OUT OF THE N  
10-15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME  
NORTHERLY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT BY 11 PM. SEAS  
WERE 4-7 FT. COMBO OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL ENERGY WITH OBS  
REPORTING LONG PERIOD SWELL 2-33 FT/17 SEC. N WINDS 10-15 KT  
THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 15-25  
KT EARLY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE  
GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGHOUT  
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND A WEAK LOW  
DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. SEAS 4-7 FT THROUGH  
THE DAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND  
PAMLICO SOUND.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 315 AM TUES...WINDS AND SEAS THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BECOME NE 10-20 KTS, WITH SEAS 3-5 FT  
LATER THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SE THURSDAY NIGHT AT  
AROUND 10 KTS, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 2-4 FT.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD  
SHORT TERM...CQD  
LONG TERM...TL/SGK  
AVIATION...JME/CQD/SGK  
MARINE...JME/CQD/SGK  
 
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