188
FXUS62 KMHX 120534
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
134 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED RISK OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ALONG WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLOODING.
2) BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER REMNANT MCV IS PUSHING ACROSS THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH ACROSS ENC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AND COULD SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF BETTER FORCING
WITH THE MCV. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING QUITE AS AN ORGANIZED LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WE SAY YESTERDAY, LIKELY TO TO WEAKER SHEAR
OVER YESTERDAY, BUT DCAPE AND INSTABILITY ARE SIMILAR AND COULD
SEE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OF 50-70 MPH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE-DAY/EVENING CONVECTION, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA, WITH AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG IT THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PATTERN APPEARS KIND OF MESSY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, THE FRONTAL ZONE PROBABLY HELPS TO BOOST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SOME, AND THERE MAY BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL/LOW-END
SEVERE RISK, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PWAT VALUES AROUND
2.25") COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO ISSUES. THIS MAY ESPECIALLY BE
THE CASE ON SUNDAY WHEN INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED,
FAVORING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS, WPC HAS INCREASED THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT FOR MUCH OF ENC FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...IN THE WAKE OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD
THROUGH MONDAY, A NOT AS HOT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK, FAVORING SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO TEMPS. THIS WILL OFFER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
DANGEROUS HEAT OF LATE. THE REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS HEAT REBUILDS LATE-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING LIFT ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF
TSRA OVER THE NEXT 24+ HOURS ACROSS ENC. INITIALLY, THE RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
BY SUNDAY THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF ENC,
INCLUDING ALL OF THE TAF SITES. OF NOTE, THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
LONGER DURATION TSRA RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THAT ENTIRE TIME. TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF IFR/LIFR VIS.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHRA THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH TIME, THE TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED TO LOWER,
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LOW CIGS (IFR/MVFR)
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NC. A MORE PREDOMINANT PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS
TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
W TO SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-5 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO N TO NE
AROUND 10-15 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN SHIFT EAST BY
TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF 25KT WINDS
AND/OR 6FT SEAS DEVELOPING AROUND THIS LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND MARINE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATERS, WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON MONDAY. BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS LAY DOWN WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/SK
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