096
FXUS62 KMHX 130538
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
138 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2021
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO CHANGES WITH EVE UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... AS OF 7 PM MON...ONLY UPDATE TO INC LOW
CLOUDS A BIT THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, AS SOME BKN STRATUS
MAY ADVECT A BIT FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... AS OF 430 PM MON...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IS BISECTING ENC FROM ROUGHLY PLYMOUTH TO CEDAR
ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TO THE EAST, EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS
BRINGING MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES ALONG THE OBX. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
PATTERN EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOW
STRATUS ADVECTING INLAND TO NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT, A RATHER ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA
WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP ACROSS ENC TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 445 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG EASTERN SECTIONS
GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS LIMITING
HIGHS ACROSS THE OBX AROUND 60S WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS THAT
WILL SEE GREATER SUNSHINE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 425 AM MON...LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
MIDWEEK, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE (ORIGINATING FROM ENERGY
BREAKING OFF THE FIRST LOW) STALLS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
SETS UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE CAROLINAS UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WEEK TREND TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN
CONUS LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP PULL A SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH PWATS OVER
THE CAROLINAS RISING TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. CHANCES OF
RAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. STILL A
WIDESPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING INSTABILITY WITH FROPA SO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS LEFT IN THE GRIDS, HOWEVER MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SOLUTION WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ONCE THE
FRONT REACHED THE COAST. OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LINGER
BUT THUNDER SHOULD FADE AWAY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY'S HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND STRUGGLING TO TOUCH 70 IN
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS WELL, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS ON ITS
EVOLUTION ARE MURKY ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD A WETTER
SOLUTION SO POPS WERE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TO CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM TUE...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS DUE TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS INVADING FROM THE
NORTH CURRENTLY IMPACTING NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE SCT DECK OF STRATUS WILL REACH SOUTHERN TAF SITES
HOWEVER THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
DENSE ENOUGH TO BRING CATS TO IFR FOR THOSE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
BUT TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED THIS CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY. NERLY WINDS AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT WITH SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE,
NERLY WINDS BUILD TO 5 TO 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS
DEVELOPING MID MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM MON...FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURS LIKELY BRINGING IN PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH SUB-VFR
CATS POSSIBLE. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CATS TO END THE WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 450 PM MON...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY BISECTING
THE WATERS FROM APPROX CEDAR ISLAND TO NEAR PLYMOUTH. E/NE FLOW
AROUND 10-15 KT CURRENTLY EAST OF THE TOUGH AND W/NW FLOW TO THE
WEST WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND SURGING
TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO UP TO AROUND 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING
UP TO 5-8 FT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. WINDS
AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA FOR ALL WATERS BUT THE INLAND RIVERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SUN...SEAS BUILD BACK QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT
10-15 KT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. FROM HERE, PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE COAST FOR
A FEW DAYS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE MAIN CONCERN IS SEAS BUILDING
ABOVE 6 FEET WITH THE STEADY NORTHERLY FETCH. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MID WEEK BEFORE LAYING DOWN TO END THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/TL
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...SK/TL/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB
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