062
FXUS62 KMHX 292332
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NUISANCE FLOODING REMAINS IN SOME VULNERABLE AREAS BUT THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES MOVING FORWARD SHOULD EXHIBIT LOWER WATER LEVELS AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES RELAX.
2) HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
3) MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED AT THIS
TIME. NUISANCE FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES BUT DATA
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SIGNIFICANT RECEDING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS, AND IN LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS,
COULD HAVE MINOR IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS IN ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
AREAS PRONE TO THE TIDAL FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY, IT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY BUT WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES EACH DAY, CULMINATING WITH SOME VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR REFERENCE, NORMAL HIGHS IN EARLY OCTOBER ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES,
AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF ENC, WITH
SOME 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER AS
WELL, AND WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL LOWS OF AROUND 60.
KEY MESSAGE 3...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AND A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL
SQUEEZE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC ELEVATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
FOR NOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ABOUT A 30-50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 1" OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANY RAIN WILL BE HELPFUL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF ENC THAT IS CURRENTLY IN
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF A
STUBBORN FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS
EVENING, WITH SE WINDS TO ITS SOUTH BUT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO ITS NORTH. GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS AND WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEST UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING -
LAMP PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT HIGHER AS WELL, SITTING AT 20-30%
FOR IFR OR WORSE FOR ALL TERMINALS.
MAIN AMENDMENT TO PREVIOUS TAFS WAS TO SHOW AN IMMEDIATE DROP TO
IFR AFTER 07-08Z AND THE INTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL LOW STRATUS
AS WELL. INLAND TERMINALS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED TO SEE
VISIBILITY ISSUES. FOG SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: OTHER THAN A NIGHTLY RISK OF REDUCED VIS IN BR/MIFG/FG, A
LOW-IMPACT AVIATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENDED
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 2 FT SEAS PREVAILING ACROSS ALL
WATERS WITH 9-10S PERIODS COMMON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND
5 KTS GUSTING TO 10 KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF AN
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, A 5-10KT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS. OF NOTE, SOME FUNNELING THROUGH
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF 10-15KT WINDS THERE.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-3FT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND, A FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NW, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING MOISTURE PLUS WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE
LIKELY ON MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RTE/RM
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RTE/RM
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