900
FXUS62 KMHX 262352
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
752 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENDED CF ADVY FOR NOBX THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. DROPPED SCAS ACROSS ALL INSIDE WATERS. AVIATION DISCO
UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LARGE AND SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING
HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE: MODERATE WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT,
WITH DANGEROUS SEAS POTENTIALLY LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF THIS EVENING, A DEEPENING NOR'EASTER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NE COAST TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE
U.S. EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF ENC DRY TODAY. THE ONE
EXCEPTION, THOUGH, IS ALONG THE NRN OBX. THERE, INCREASING CAA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THIS PLUS A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE BAY
COULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN VA INTO NE NC...THOUGH LITTLE ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
KEEPING POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HERE INTACT, JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING ISO SHOWERS CONFINED
OFFSHORE.
DESPITE WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING TODAY, COASTAL
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE OBX. BUOYS
CURRENTLY SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10-13FT AT 12-13 SECONDS, AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO WAVE RUNUP AND OCEAN OVERWASH
IMPACTS ALONG VULNERABLE STRETCHES OF THE OBX, WITH A CONTINUED
FOCUS ON HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. PORTIONS OF NC-12 REMAIN
CLOSED ON BOTH HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS. ADDING TO THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE RUNUP AND OVERWASH IS THE ALREADY ELEVATED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ONGOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CF WARNINGS
ALREADY IN PLACE WERE EXTENDED AS WELL AS THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION, AS THE NOR'EASTER PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA, A MORE MODERATE WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A RISK OF VERY MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND ROANOKE ISLAND. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION,
HAS EXTENDED THE CF.ADVY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH UP TO 1FT OF INUNDATION POSSIBLE ON OCEAN-SIDE
LOCATIONS DUE TO THE BATTERED DUNE STRUCTURES AND LOCALIZED
MINOR SOUND-SIDE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW DUE TO THE
WERLY WINDS AND HIGHER TIDE CYCLE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH AN ADVY WHEN THE
WARNING COMES DOWN TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
COMBINED WITH RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO BE SLOWER TO RETURN, AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS REPORTED CURRENTLY AND LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS CENTERED AROUND THE
NOR'EASTER, WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS REACHING ENC. VFR PERSISTS SUN
WITH A WERLY BREEZE WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING PEAK HEATING.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE NOR'EASTER PULLS SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND WEAKENS. A DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THAT
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
DEEPENING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS SHOW NWERLY WINDS,
5-10KT INLAND RIVERS, 10-15KT LARGER SOUNDS, WITH OUTSIDE WATERS
SHOWING 10-25KT, STRONGEST NERN WATERS. SEAS 10-12 FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND 4-8FT SOUTH. ALL SCAS ON THE INSIDE HAVE BEEN
DROPPED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH WINDS FALLING OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT AS THE NOR'EASTER FINALLY LIFTS
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT SUN WITH
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK: BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY
IMPROVE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page