443  
FXUS62 KMHX 131342  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
942 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN NC EARLY TO  
MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 935 AM THURSDAY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX READILY  
APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MID-MORNING WITH COLD CLOUD  
TOPS OFF THE SC COAST. SOME CONVECTION ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF  
THE COMPLEX OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST, BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW IT  
MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW WIDELY  
SCATTERED, MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN TIER  
AND OUTER BANKS. TWEAKED MORNING POPS JUST A BIT TO INDICATE A  
SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD A HEAVIER RAIN/HIGHER COVERAGE IN THE  
AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS  
CONVECTION STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND, WHICH LINES UP WITH  
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z MHX  
SOUNDING IS A 2.22 INCHES, SO MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. NO OTHER  
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE  
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES INTO NC  
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE  
EVENING TO THE COAST LATE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE  
MAIN THREAT AS HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2" REMAIN OVER THE  
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH  
UPPER 70S BEACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 AM THU...WET WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS A CLOSED LOW  
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-WEST MOVES EAST AND EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN  
WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AMPLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING  
IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US FOR MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS  
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE US NORTHERN TIER. AT THE SURFACE, THE  
TYPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH/INLAND LEE TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH LATE WEEK, THEN A WAVY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NC AND  
STALL WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MOVE ALONG IT, ENHANCING  
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLE  
OVER THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 
THE AIR MASS ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW, DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, PW VALUES  
AOA 2" AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. WHILE TIMING INDIVIDUAL  
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING  
INLAND, THEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHTS. WILL CAP POPS  
AT CHANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED  
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SUB VFR  
CONDITIONS BEGINNING FROM NEAR DAWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, AS  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL  
DOWNPOURS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE  
OVER THE CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG/LOW  
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY  
MORNING AS A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 245 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE GREATER  
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF PATCHY EARLY  
MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...MADE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE  
FORECAST AS WINDS ARE RUNNING MORE SE VERSUS S. SPEEDS CONTINUE  
AT 5-15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SW. SEAS 2-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND  
3-5 FT TONIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 245 AM THU...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. EXPECT S TO SW WINDS 10-15 KT  
FRI, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. A WAVY COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS AND STALL OVER THE WEEKEND, MAKING  
WIND DIRECTIONS CHALLENGING. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO  
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT, THOUGH SOME MODELS KEEP IT  
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE  
NE/E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SW  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. INCREASED WINDS A BIT  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE  
SHOWING STRONGER WINDS, 15-20 KT, DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING FRONT. FLOW BECOMES PRED S/SW 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT  
THROUGH MON. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH SAT THEN BUILDING TO  
3-5 FT LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...CTC  
SHORT TERM...JME  
LONG TERM...JME/CQD  
AVIATION...JME/CQD  
MARINE...JME/CTC/CQD  
 
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