415
FXUS62 KMHX 271006
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
606 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH INCREASED CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON
2) NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
WITH THE RETURN OF HEAT/HUMIDITY AHEAD OF IT AND A RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY, DAYTIME HEATING OF THE AIRMASS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SEABREEZE AND ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A RENEWED RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN, SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. RESIDUALLY DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT DCAPE
VALUES OF 1000+ J/KG. THIS IN TANDEM WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO THE PRIMARY RISK
BEING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40-60 MPH. FORECAST AIDS LIKE THE
ECMWF'S EFI SHOW A DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL SIGNAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, WITH THE RISK DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY,
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH VIRGINIA AND
THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH
PWATS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 2". MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE. ALOFT, A NOTABLE
UPPER JET MAX IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE INSTABILITY AXIS,
SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-45KT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MODERATE, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO IS NOTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AS IS THE AMOUNT OF LIFT EXPECTED.
SYNOPTICALLY, THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THE FACTORS ABOVE
CHECKS SEVERAL BOXES FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS ALSO
HAS OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE, ANALOG, AND MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE. THE MAIN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS TIMING.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY NOT REACH ENC UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADUALLY STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER, THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION WELL PAST THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MAX IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING PRESENT, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
ENC DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS POSING A RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SRH AROUND 100M2/S2 MAY SUPPORT A
FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER, THOSE LATTER 2 HAZARDS SHOULD BE LOWER
COMPARED TO THE WIND RISK. LASTLY, WHILE A MCS WOULD BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE, THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WHICH MAY SUPPORT A SHORT-FUSED FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE AREA HARDEST HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS (IE. HYDE COUNTY
EAST THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS).
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH HEAT INDICES RISING TO 100-105 DEGREES. THIS APPEARS TO BE
A BIT MARGINAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES, BUT IS SOMETHING WE'LL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS IN LATER FORECASTS.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STILL SOME SIGNAL FOR MVFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. VFR SHOULD
RETURN BY 15Z. THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES AFTER AROUND
18Z, THOUGH COVG NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP
YET. ISO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION WOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): A NOTABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER TUE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND AN INCREASED
RISK OF TSRA TUE EVENING, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE TSRA RISK. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 40-60KT WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE FROPA FOR WED INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS, WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. LIGHT SE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, BECOMING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND AN
INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS OF 15-30KT ARE EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK IN THE 4-8FT RANGE. OF NOTE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF 40-50KT WINDS AND HAIL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD
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