642
FXUS62 KMHX 050013
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE FA. SCAS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY EXTENDED. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TOMORROW FOR THE BULK OF MAINLAND ENC.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS, POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) SEVERAL IMPULSES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BRING ROUNDS OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE TODAY, AND AGAIN
SATURDAY.
3) RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE SEPTEMBER TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOMALOUSLY WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS BENEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING
HEAT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
PEAKING AT 105-110 DEG TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN FOR SRN ZONES ON SATURDAY.
TODAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR THE PEAK OF
THIS WEEK'S HEAT WAVE, WITH HIGHS RANGING 95-100 FOR THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN, WITH LOW 90S COAST. THERMAL GRADIENT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FAST SEABREEZE PROGRESSION
AND THUS PRECLUDE HEAT INDICES REACHING 105 FOR PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COMBO OF HOT TEMPS WELL ABOVE 90 INLAND
COUPLED WITH TDS WELL INTO THE 70S BRING HEAT INDICES 105+ ONCE
AGAIN INLAND. SOME LOCALES MAY ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH VALS ABOVE
110 AGAIN, BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD FOR ISSUANCE OF
HEAT WARNINGS.
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT AT THE SAME TIME TD VALS INC WITH MOISTURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING AHEAD OF IT, AND WITH TEMPS FCST TO REACH INTO THE
MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S IN SWERN ZONES, ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT
INDICES 105-110 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE EXPECTED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDS THE HEAT LATER IN THE DAY. BEST CHANCES
TO REACH CRITERIA ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF HWY 70. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS GENERAL AREA. WENT BELOW NBM
FOR TDS FOR TOMORROW WITH TODAY'S OBS SHOWING NBM WAS OVERDONE.
HAVE SOME HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA APPTS IN THE GRIDS ALL THE WAY
UP TO THE NERN TIER DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HIRES BLEND TDS,
BUT OPTED NOT TO GO WITH A HEAT ADVISORY THIS FAR NORTH WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO CUT
DOWN ON THE HEAT IN THIS AREA EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE SOME RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING WAS PRESENT
EARLIER BENEATH THE RIDGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC, GUIDANCE, AND
NOW RADAR, SHOWS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND
MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE NRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE, ESP NORTH OF HWY 70 AND
BEST CHANCES NORTH OF HWY 264 WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ABOVE 25 KT. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT STRONGEST
STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME HAIL AS WELL. SEVERE WATCH IS CURRENTLY
SET TO EXPIRE AT 2200EDT THOUGH THIS MAY BE EXTENDED IN BOTH
TIME AND AREA.
ON SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GET SUPPRESSED FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST WITH LESS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS
PLUS INCREASED FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AN
IMPROVED RISK OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND LESS LIMITING FACTORS,
COMPARED TO FRIDAY. PW'S/TD'S INC FURTHER AND WITH LOWERING HTS
ALOFT, INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY STRONG. IN FACT, VALS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE THE AVG MAX FOR FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ACCORDING TO
THE KMHX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WITH ML CAPE VALS ADVERTISED BY
THE 03/12Z RRFS/ECM/NAM3K REACHING OR EXCEEDING 4KJ/KG. IF
CONVECTIVE TIMING ALIGNS WITH FROPA/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON, A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER SIGNAL MAY BE MET AS
THIS ALIGNS WITH STOUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF
35-45KT. MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE PROBS FOR DAMAGING WIND HAVE
INCREASED FOR PARTS OF ENC. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT, AS PWS
SURGE TO 2.25" OR HIGHER, AND WITH THE EXPECTED NUMEROUS
CONVECTION, VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEEPER
CONVECTION AND LEND TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF STORMS. NBM'S DETERMINISTICQPF
VALUES DID NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY BY ANY MEANS, WITH EVEN THE
BULK OF THE HIGHER PERCENTILE OUTPUT STILL ADVERTISING LESS THAN
ONE INCH OVER 24H FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WENT WITH WPC QPF WHICH
SHOWS A 24H TOTAL QPF OF 1-2" FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE MOUTH OF
THE NEUSE RIVER, WHICH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HAS THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TRAINING STORMS. AS A DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST, THIS WILL SUFFICE, BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY POTENTIAL
FOR 24H RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2-3" IN SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL FINALLY GET KNOCKED DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER, WITH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING ON SUNDAY AND
MAY SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR DRIER ESP AS
WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK WITH POPS LESS THAN 20% LASTING THROUGH
MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S IS FCST AND
IS WHERE OUR TEMPS SHOULD BE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES BUT
THAT MAY SOON CHANGE, PRIMARILY ACROSS PGV WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH ARE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARDS. THESE STORMS COULD
BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND MVFR TO
IFR VIS TO PGV AND HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. ELSEWHERE, DONT THINK THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SURVIVES
LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A LINE FOR PRECIP. AS WE GET INTO
TONIGHT ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY
DISSIPATES ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATING CONVECTION OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THREAT TONIGHT.
AS WE GET INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY,
BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA.
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA DURING THIS
TIME. SOME STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND STRONGEST STORMS HAVING HAIL AS
WELL. FOR NOW GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TIME IT IS, PUT IN PROB30
GROUPS IN ALL TAF SITES SAT AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TSTM
THREAT.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO THE EWN TAFS AS THE
SITE IS NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS
STILL REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT
AS FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT).
OUTLOOK (SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED): BEHIND THE FRONT, A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR, WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRED VFR RETURNING.
MARINE
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE SHOWN THAT NBM HAS BEEN UNDERDONE BY
3-5KT. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 5-10KT INSIDE, 12-18KT OUTSIDE
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20G25KT, FOR
THE EASTERN SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR RIVER AND NEARSHORE CTRL WATERS.
CONTINUED SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL WATERS, BUT DID
EXTEND IT SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT NERN SOUNDS AND WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESP EVENING AS STORMS MOVE SOUTH FROM VA.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQ LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.
OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH TUE): MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS COULD AFFECT
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENC WATERS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT BECOMING NE BEHIND THE FRONT SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EASE
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 09/05 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96/2023 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 91/1983 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1921 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 91/2020 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1983 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 96/1983 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ044-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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