473
FXUS62 KMHX 200700
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED SOME FOR MONDAY.
THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
2) INCREASED MARINE IMPACTS MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH WAVES
AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IMPACT THE OBX AND ADJACENT WATERS
AND SOUNDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP LAYER NERLY FLOW CONT THIS MORNING FOR ENC.
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING. MAY SEE A FEW ISO SHOWERS ON THE SEA/SOUND BREEZES
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST AS SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS, BUT UPPER FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE AND NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES MON AND TUE
AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. FOR MON, THE
RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO MAINLY INTERIOR ZONES AS THE FRONT
HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND LATER IN THE DAY. TUE APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PW'S
SURGE TO AOA 2" AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACRS ENC, AND
THUS POPS RAISED TO 60-70%.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY MID WEEK, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BECOMES ANCHORED ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CANADA, WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THIS SETUP WILL USHER IN STRONGER NE WINDS INTO
COASTAL ENC. EXACT TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
WILL DICTATE WIND SPEEDS AND IMPACTS TO COASTAL ENC. 20/00Z ECM
CONT TO TREND STRONGER WITH GRADIENT WINDS AND WOULD SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD GALES FOR THE COAST, THOUGH STILL A WIDE SPREAD IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH ECM AND AIFS, SO DETAILS YET TO BE
IRONED OUT. DESPITE THE WIND UNCERTAINTY, WHAT IS CERTAIN IS
THAT A LONG FETCH OF TIGHTENED NERLY GRADIENT WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL BRING HIGH WAVE ENERGY TOWARDS VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER BANKS. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT
AND TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR MAINLY SKC. PROBS FOR FG/BR AT 20% OR LESS IN THE OVERNIGHT
TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. TODAY CONT TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS
THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT STILL SITS
TO OUR SOUTH.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN MON AND TUE
WITH A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES. THIS AND
THE POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK WITH A
RISK OF PROLONGED SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NNERLY WINDS
ESP WED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS NE WINDS CONT TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BE 2-4 FT, THOUGH SOME 5 FT SETS REMAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE OBX FROM OCRACOKE TO OREGON INLET. WINDS VEER
SERLY LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE, THEN SWRLY LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT REMAIN ONLY IN THE
5-10 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): WINDS REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE MON
INTO TUE WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
TUESDAY PM AND ESP WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WE ARE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A NON-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR NERLY GALES BY WED THOUGH STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
CLOSE AND STRONG THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES BECOMES. WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS A LONG DURATION OF DANGEROUS SEAS OF 8-10+ FT
DEVELOPING MID WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/RJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page