386  
FXUS62 KMHX 090800  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS WEEKEND, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING  
NORTH ON SUNDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT  
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/  
 
AS OF 4 AM FRI...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL PARTIALLY ABSORB A CUT OFF LOW  
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. AT THE  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH  
A FEW EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS CONT TO MOVE THROUGH CTRL NC  
EXPANDING TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.  
THINKING THAT THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN, AND AT THE LEAST  
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS  
MORNING. WHETHER CLOUDS CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR IS VERY MUCH IN  
QUESTION, AND WILL DICTATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CAM'S HAVE BACKED OFF ON CAPE VALS AND  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, AND LATEST NCAR SEVERE PROBS HAVE FOLLOWED  
SUITE, WITH PROBS FOR SEVERE DOWN TO AROUND 10% OR SO. DESPITE  
AN UPGRADE TO SLGHT RISK FOR SOME PARTS OF ENC, AM A BIT  
SKEPTICAL THAT MORE THAN A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM  
WILL OCCUR. HRRR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING ML CAPE  
VALS OF 500-1000 J/KG, DOWN FROM YESTERDAY'S VALS. WITH EFF  
SHEAR OF 35-45 KT TODAY, THERE IS SOME RISK OF SEVERE IF THE SUN  
CAN MAKE A STRONG COMEBACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT,  
TO NO HIGHER THAN THE LOW 80S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 4 AM FRI...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE  
COAST EARLY THIS EVENING, QUICKLY PUTTING AN END TO THE PRECIP,  
AND AREA EXPECTED TO DRY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE  
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL COOL DOWN TO THE MID/UPR 50S  
INTERIOR TO LOW 60S COAST, WITH SKIES BECOMING MO CLEAR TOWARDS  
SUNRISE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 315 AM FRI...THE LONG TERM WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE  
EASTERN CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING  
EXTENDING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA, BETWEEN THE  
DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND CLOSED LOW  
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO  
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE GULF LOW SLOWLY  
LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK AND RIDGING  
RETURNS BEHIND IT.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL PUSH  
FURTHER OFFSHORE, STALLING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF  
COAST AND LINGERING THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. A DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL  
THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT ACROSS  
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR  
AREA DRY TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
EARLY SUN MORNING AS STALLED FRONT WOBBLES NORTHWARD AND  
OVERRUNING PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION - BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF  
US 70. DREARY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH ONGOING ON-AND-OFF  
SHOWERS WHILE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST WITH  
MODEST INSTABILITY NEAR 250 J/KG, ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY  
GRADIENT IS SHARP AND ITS EXACT PLACEMENT REMAINS A POINT OF  
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, AND FOR THAT REASON KEPT THUNDER OUT OF  
THE GRIDS FOR NOW. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE LOW  
TO MID 70S ESPECIALLY INLAND.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING AND  
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN TANDEM  
WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY  
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF NC 17 WHILE THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY  
LIFTS NORTH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL LOOKS MOST LIKELY MON  
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE  
(WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS AROUND 2", WELL ABOVE AVERAGE  
FOR MID-MAY). THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A WIDESPREAD HALF  
INCH TO INCH OF NEEDED RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST  
1-2" IN A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO.  
 
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, PUTTING ENC  
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME  
PRECIPITATION PATTERN RETURNS AT THE POINT, WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER  
COLUMN BUT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE  
BOUNDARIES.  
 
THURSDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF  
THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH  
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 3 AM FRI...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE  
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING TODAY, WITH DRYING LATE MORNING  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR, THEN A STORM  
THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING,  
WITH PERHAPS A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM. FOR NOW, DUE  
TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER PREVENTING IDEAL DESTABILIZATION, WILL  
ONLY ADVERTISE A PROB30 FOR THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS  
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, RAIN THREAT ENDS AND SKIES  
CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BUT REMAINING LIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS  
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH  
RISK OF SHOWERS LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERRUNNING  
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 4 AM FRI...SSWRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20  
KTS AND SEAS BUILDING CLOSER TO 3-5 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE A  
CHANCE AT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED  
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY  
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH, AND INC TO 15-20 KT,  
WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF  
OREGON INLET AND NORTH OF HATTERAS, AND SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO  
6 FT. WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN  
PERSISTENCE OF THESE WINDS AND SEAS MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...MAIN PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR MARINE  
INTERESTS ARE SATURDAY WHERE POST-FRONTAL SURGE MAY RESULT IN AN  
ONGOING RISK OF 6+ FOOT SEAS FOR FAR OUTER WATERS OVER THE GULF  
STREAM. OTHER PERIOD IS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW  
PRESSURE LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH SE WINDS OF  
15-20 KT, PEAKING TUES AFT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET SOUTH  
OF OREGON INLET.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...TL  
SHORT TERM...TL  
LONG TERM...MS  
AVIATION...TL/MS  
MARINE...TL/MS  
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