738
FXUS62 KMHX 031832
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
232 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MARGINAL RISK OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER EXTENDS INTO TOMORROW.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MARINE HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND IFD ISSUANCE MAY STILL BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. FOR TOMORROW, RHS WILL LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
WITH A CONTINUING SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN TDS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH STRONGER GUSTS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PINCHED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT THIS WILL HINGE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. MARGINAL
SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY TO PERSIST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN, AS SEEN ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON RADAR, AND POTENTIALLY RETURN TOMORROW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND 70S FOR THE
BEACHES. MINTS GENERALLY AROUND 60. A FEW RECORDS COULD BE
THREATENED THE NEXT FEW DAYS - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY,
MOVING THROUGH LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY
STILL LOOKS MEAGER, BUT SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY ELEVATED AT
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT. THUS, IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP A FEW
STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITH A RISK OF DOWNBURSTS.
SPC HAS OUR AREA IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT. FOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION, ESTIMATED PROBABILITIES ARE:
> 0.5": 50-60%
> 1.0": 10-20%
NBM CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, PASSING FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N-NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THEN WARMING LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FOR PARTS OF ENC, THIS HAS SUPPORTED
INCREASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS AROUND 4K
FT. REGIONAL RADAR EVEN SHOWS A FEW SHRA JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
SOME OF THESE SHRA MAY COME CLOSE TO KISO AND KPGV. ANY SHRA
THAT REACHES THOSE TERMINALS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF. OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF BR/MIFG WITH
REDUCED VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE. I ADDED A MENTION OF MVFR VIS TO
KOAJ AND KEWN WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST. ON SATURDAY,
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND LESS LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO LESS CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT, AND A LOWERED RISK OF SHRA.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH AN
INCREASED RISK OF LOW CIGS AND SHRA AND TSRA. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 20-25KT EXPECTED. A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS
GUSTY BY THAT TIME.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW S TO SE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 3-5
FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FIRST TOMORROW, KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SWERLY WINDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-15 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, GUSTING UP TO 20KT DURING PEAK HEATING. PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO LATER
THIS MORNING. THIS FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES AND CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY): SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FROPA IS
EXPECTED LATE SUN INTO MON, WHICH IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING. NO SCA HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. A MINORITY OF
GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A MINOR RISK OF GALES (10-20%), ALTHOUGH
THIS IS CONFINED TO THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH SHOWERS AND TSTORMS, A FEW WHICH COULD BE
STRONG. N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SCA
CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/3 (TODAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 90/1967 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 81/2007 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 90/1934 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 89/1967 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/4 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 90/1967 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 80/2007 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/1934 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 89/1963 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD/MS
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