928
FXUS62 KMHX 020745
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED FLOOD WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL NC.
INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
2) WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK.
MARINE: SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WE ENTER INTO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT
LEAST MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE MIDWEST WILL
DIVE SE'WARDS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY EVENTUALLY
STALLING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BLOCKS THIS TROUGHS FORWARD
PROGRESS. AT THE MID LEVELS, WILL SEE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUND
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH PROMOTING PERIODS OF LIFT ACROSS ENC AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THE FIRST WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE COAST STARTING THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES COMING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
MON/TUE. AT THE SURFACE, CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT E'WARDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT STALLING JUST TO THE WEST. THESE
FEATURES, IN ADDITION TO THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING PRESENT FOR A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES.
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. THE FIRST IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND BEHIND A N'WARD MOVING WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURING OFFSHORE AND AREAS EAST OF HWY
17. WE SHOULD STILL BE TOO DRY ALOFT INLAND AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH, SO THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW INLAND SUN MORNING.
PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH COASTAL COMMUNITIES SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET. THE SECOND WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLING UPPER TROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN HOW HIGH INSTABILITY CAN TRULY GET, BUT WITH THE
DEWPOINTS RISING THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ENTERING THE
REGION FOR 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE SUNDAY. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SE FLOW, THE COMBINATION
OF LONG, SKINNY CAPES, PWATS OVER 2", AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND WET MICROBURSTS WHERE
STORMS DEVELOP. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST
CLOSER TO I-95, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE CAM
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR WEST
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS REDUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE REGION DESPITE THE TROUGH CREEPING A BIT CLOSER.
STILL, WE SHOULD SEE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING, PAIRED WITH ANOTHER NIGHT/DAY OF LONG
SKINNY CAPES AND PWATS NORTH OF 2" BRINGS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, A LOW END
WET MICROBURST THREAT, AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS. ALL THIS
BRINGS FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO MIND, ESPECIALLY WITH HOW MUCH
RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL NC, STARTING AT 11 PM
SUNDAY AND ENDING 5 PM MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH COASTAL NC
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HREF AND REFS PROBS OF >1" OF RAIN
ARE OVER 50% THE FLOOD WATCH REGION, INCREASING TO 60-80% FOR
HATTERAS ISLAND, OCRACOKE, CARTERET COUNTY, AND COASTAL ONSLOW
COUNTY. REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIOS SHOW 2-5" OF RAIN IN
THE FLOOD WATCH REGION, ALTHOUGH HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE HEAVY RAIN RATES LINGER WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
WE HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) EXCESSIVE RAIN
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES AT SEEING FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG HWY 17 AND POINTS EAST.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE TROUGH/LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER TO OUR
WEST UNTIL EVENTUALLY IT GETS PICKED UP AND SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH BY
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT,
DAILY ELEVATED PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A LOW
END RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. BY THE END OF THE WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE WE
RETURN BACK TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO POPS AS A LACK OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES OR SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS ENC THOUGH WE
DO BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE OBX.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TRANSIENT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A WETTER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE SHOWERS THAT COULD
BRING OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS. INITIALLY,
COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW, THEN WILL EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS THE LCL'S RISE FROM AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH HIGHEST PROBS ACROSS
WESTERN RTES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT SUB-VFR CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. COASTAL ROUTES COULD SEE HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT, FURTHER REDUCING VIS AND
CIG.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ENC
ENTERS INTO A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A STALLED UPPER
TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. PRECIP CHANCES AND THUS THE THREAT FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DECREASE BEYOND WED.
MARINE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE, STARTING TODAY ACROSS ALL
NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS. ONGOING 10-15 KT
S-SE'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE S-SW'RLY AND INCREASING TO
15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN
AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS SUN, EXPECT
ONGOING 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TO BUILD LATE SUN
MORNING TO 4-8 FT BY SUN EVENING, THUS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SCA CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THIS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY STARTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
SUN MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
SRH IS NEGATIVE EARLY MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS, MEANING
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC ROTATION IN STORMS IS
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP
THERE IS A NON-ZERO WATERSPOUT THREAT. THERE IS STILL A THREAT
OF SOME LOW-END GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING WITH
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING KEEPING SCA IN PLACE. WINDS WILL EASE FIRST ACROSS
THE INLAND WATERS AND N'RN SOUNDS THUS ENDING SCA'S BY MON
MORNING HERE WITH SCA'S ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET BY MON EVENING. EXPECT MORE BENIGN WINDS AND
SEAS FROM TUE ONWARDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE, ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MIDWEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ047-081-092-094-194>196-198-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ131-135-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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