656  
FXUS62 KMHX 191722  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
122 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL  
OFFSHORE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE FRONT  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE  
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY  
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS  
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR  
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/
 
 
AS OF 120 PM FRI... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON  
THIS UPDATE AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OUT ACROSS OUR  
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BUT REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NOBX WHERE  
NE'RLY FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP MOISTURE PINNED UNDERNEATH A  
FRONTAL INVERSION. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE DOES STILL SHOW A THREAT  
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY  
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE DESTABILIZATION CAN  
MAXIMIZE, THOUGH ANY LOW END SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE  
LESSENING AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUT A DELAY ON THE ONSET OF  
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.  
 
PREV DISC...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING  
AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
ANOTHER, WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY BEHIND THIS FEATURE, COMBINED  
WITH EFFICIENT HEATING AND GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AS  
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PROBABLE  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC RACING EASTWARD. THE  
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW  
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT AND MEAN  
SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL  
ONLY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 17 THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF  
SEA/SOUND BREEZES AND THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ARRIVING CLOSE TO  
SUNSET WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING. IF SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE, A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF  
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR  
INNER COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE EARLY EVENING, FROM  
6PM ONWARD.  
 
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE  
LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHILE OVER THE NORTHERN  
OUTER BANKS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 60.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 440 AM FRI...STORM RISK WILL QUICKLY WANE INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY COLLAPSES, ALTHOUGH A SHOWER RISK  
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES  
ONGOING ACROSS NC AND VA ENCROACH ON THE AREA. ANOTHER BAND OF  
BROKEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE  
MAIN COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE STATE. MORE MILD  
TEMPERATURES LIKELY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT  
NORTHWARD, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND MID 50S ACROSS  
NOBX.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 445 AM FRIDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN  
WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
LIFTING OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE  
AREA SATURDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE FRONT PUSHING  
THROUGH MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW  
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH A POST  
FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPING SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND  
MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70S ACROSS THE  
OBX.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE  
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BETTER FORCING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY  
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA.  
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND PASS  
OFF THE OBX SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT FARTHER  
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH  
THE LOW BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA  
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED  
AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURING ALONG  
THE COAST. NE WINDS, CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS  
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AN UPPER  
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY TRIGGER  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, HOWEVER GUIDANCE  
HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH WHICH  
MAY KEEP US ON THE DRIER SIDE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE ON  
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA  
TUESDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH  
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS  
THE AREA BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, THOUGH MOISTURE  
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  
A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN  
THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND A FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.  
TEMPS COOL BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...  
AS OF 120 PM FRI...IFR CEILINGS HAVE JUST ABOUT MIXED OUT OF  
EVERYWHERE ACROSS ENC OUTSIDE OF THE NOBX WHERE LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND LOW  
STRATUS AROUND 600-800 FT PERSIST. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX  
OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OUT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE IFR  
CEILINGS STICK AROUND ALL DAY HERE. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF VFR AND  
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS FORECAST TO  
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OUT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND HAS  
BEEN DOWNWARD ON THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS  
THIS AFTERNOON BUT LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGIN TO INTRUDE FROM THE WEST STARTING  
AROUND THE 20Z-02Z PM TIMEFRAME WITH LOCALLY LOWER VIS AND  
CEILINGS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP.  
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 30-40 KTS  
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE AS A FRONT APPROACHES ANY LEFTOVER  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING STARTING FROM WEST  
TO EAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS  
BETWEEN 0-4Z TONIGHT AND THEN IFR CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT 04Z.  
CEILINGS THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE SAT MORNING AS THE AREA  
BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND  
A SECOND FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SAT. LIGHT WINDS  
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...PRED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY  
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-  
VFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT  
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE PASSES ALONG THE  
OFFSHORE FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE BEST  
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RTES.  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH PRED VFR  
EXPECTED TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 450 AM SAT...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS NOW FULLY ACROSS AREA  
WATERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE  
OUTPERFORMING GUIDANCE, REACHING 15-20 KT WITH A FEW INFREQUENT  
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS ACROSS AREA WATERS SIT AT 3-5 FEET,  
HIGHEST ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. FORECAST CALLS  
FOR THE BACKDOOR FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH WITH WINDS  
VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, FALLING BELOW  
15 KT AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED  
ACROSS RALEIGH BAY AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND A  
FEW SPOTTY WAVES OF 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR OUTER  
WATERS. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SCA THIS MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE  
WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE AROUND 15-20 KT  
DEVELOPING. SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWING WINDS AS STRONG AS 25  
KT WHICH MAY WARRANT A SCA OVER PARTS OF THE WATERS, ALTHOUGH  
THE POST- FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE FRONT  
WILL STALL OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING  
TO AROUND 15 KT OR LESS BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
FRONT SUNDAY AND PASS OFF THE OBX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
BRINGING A PERIOD NE WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT, STRONGEST SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY WITH NE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT CONTINUING  
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3-5 FT SATURDAY  
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND 6-9 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF  
SHORT TERM...MS  
LONG TERM...SK  
AVIATION...SK/RCF  
MARINE...SK/MS  
 
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