003
FXUS62 KMHX 201621
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1221 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1220 PM SATURDAY...RAIN HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE OF THE OBX
AND EXPECT PC/MSUNNY SKIES THIS AFTN AS DRY SLOT AHEAD OF UPR
LOW CROSSES.
PREV DISC...LAST OF THE RAINFALL IS MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT EASES IT WAY OFFSHORE AND
STRONG SURFACE LOW LINGERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS HAVE ALSO
DIMINISHED AND HAVE LOWER THE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA. WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERING AROUND THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERING AROUND
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND, UPPER 50S OUTER BANKS
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
MID WEEK.
SUNDAY...AS THE THE UPPER LOW ALOFT ROTATES EAST THROUGH VA HAS
ENOUGH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT A ROGUE ISO SHOWER OR TWO, AND KEPT SLGT CHC POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS NRN ZONES IN VCNTY OF
THE UPPER LOW. ANY SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AND TEMPS COOL TO BELOW CLIMO
WITH DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE SEASONABLY MILD, WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID/UPR 40S (LOW/MID 50S
BEACHES) SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING VERY PLEASANT
AND RAIN- FREE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS MODERATING EACH DAY. HIGHS
NEAR CLIMO ON MON WITH LOW/MID 70S, AND ABOVE CLIMO BY TUE WITH
MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID WEEK TIME PERIOD TRENDED DRIER
WITH A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST
BY GLOBAL MODEL SUITE, THUS BACKED OFF ON POPS SOME. WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S AS
HTS/THICKNESSES BUILD FURTHER.
FRIDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ARRIVE FRIDAY AS
UPR LOW IS FCST TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS.
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES ABOUND THIS FAR OUT AMONGST
MODEL ENSEMBLES, AND MODEL TO MODEL AS WELL, THUS ONLY SMALL CHC
POPS ARE ADVERTISED THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. SSW WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU LATE THIS AFTN THEN DIMINISH. MAINLY SCT
CU THIS AFTN SHLD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SHLD HAVE A LIGHT BREEZE AND DECENT TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. AS UPR LOW CROSSES
SUNDAY EXPECT STEEP LAPSE RATES TO LEAD TO SCT TO BKN CU FROM
LATE MORN ON. SOME VERY LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES POSS BUT SHLD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO VSBYS.
LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM SATURDAY...EXTENDED SCA FOR SOUNDS INTO THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS STILL GETTING GUSTS AOA 25 KTS AND MANY
MDLS SHOWS DECENT WINDS WILL CONT INTO THE EVENING.
PREV DISC...WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE LOWERED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL AREA
WATERS, REPLACING THEM WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR THE
SOUNDS/INLAND WATERS, THE SCA WILL END AROUND NOON AS SW/W WINDS
OF 15-25 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON THE COASTAL WATERS, SW/W WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-25 KNOTS, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT, AS HIGH AS 14-15 FEET
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS, BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO 7-11 FEET BY
LATER IN THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH HIGH SEAS AND 9-10 SECOND
SWELL ENERGY, WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUN THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT... SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT AS LARGE SWELL IS SLOW TO SUBSIDE DUE IN PART TO
CONTINUED SW FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHT, IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. GOOD
BOATING CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 930 AM SAT...DROPPED HIGH SURF ADVRY FOR ONSLOW AND
WESTERN CARTERET ZONES...CONT IT FOR AREAS FROM OREGON INLET TO
EASTERN CARTERET FOR CONT ROUGH SURF.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-204-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/CTC/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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