231
FXUS62 KMHX 060147
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
947 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AS SHALLOW FOG AS DEVELOPED AT SOME
TERMINALS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DREARY CONDITIONS TODAY GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE FALL
CONDITIONS TO ENC THROUGH MID WEEK.
2) MODERATING CONDITIONS BRINGS A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DRY AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THIS REINFORCING
BOUNDARY AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN A CLEARING TREND
FROM NW TO SE WITH TDS DIVING WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN UPPER
40S INLAND BY THIS TIME TUES AM. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
INLAND AND LOW 60S FOR THE BEACHES.
HIGH PRES BUILDS FURTHER TOMORROW INTO WED, RESULTING IN VERY
PLEASANT MILD AND DRY DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR CLIMO IN THE 75-80
RANGE (LOW 70S OBX), BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS WELL DOWN INTO
THE 50S FOR THE MAINLAND, AND PERHAPS A FEW 40S FOR THE NORMALLY
COOLER SHELTERED LOCALES. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR THIS IS ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD AND ENVIRONMENT IS MOST
FAVORED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW RETURNS THU INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL BRING A MODEST WARMING TREND BACK TO
ENC. SW FLOW RETURNS BY FRIDAY AS A BROAD BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING A
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT AND SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT
GENERAL ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AS ONE OR
POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE LOWS DEVELOP ALONG IT AND LIFT NORTHWARD.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES, AND WITH THE MOISTURE
HAVING GULF ORIGINS SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL IS NOT IMPLAUSIBLE.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS RTES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WHERE THE WIND HAS DECOUPLED BRINGING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE FOG SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS TO OPERATIONS AT THE TERMINALS AND SO FAR IT HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO SEE ON AREA WEBCAMS WHERE SITES ARE REPORTING
REDUCED VSBYS. ONCE THE SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, LIGHT
MIXING AND LOWERING DEW POINTS SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE MIXING ENSUES TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT. THE GUSTINESS WILL WANE MID AFTERNOON
AS WINDS DIMINISH IN THE MIXED LAYER.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY): MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BOTH DAY AND NIGHT WITH LOWERED
DEWPOINTS. OVERALL FOG CHANCES APPEAR LOW EACH NIGHT AT AROUND
10% OR LESS. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY, NE WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW N-NNE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED (COASTAL WATER SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET) AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY MIGRATES ACROSS AREA WATERS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NNE WINDS WILL
PEAK AT 15-25 KT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. NE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 10-20 KT TUE. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 4-7 FT TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUE MORNING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY): NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT EXPECTED MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES WILL BE ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH, AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF COAST WITH INCREASING NE WINDS PARTICULARLY OVER ONSLOW
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...CQD/SK/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS
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