012
FXUS62 KMHX 272311
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
711 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM.
SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN MID WEEK AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.
MARINE: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OUR
WATERS INTO TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING JUST
W OF THE FA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN CROSSING OVERHEAD
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EJECT OFF THE COAST TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING.
MORE EXCITABLE HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT REACHES THE INNER BANKS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT KEEP THEM BELOW
MENTIONABLE IN THE FORECAST.
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BREAKDOWN WEDNESDAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATTENDANT LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA DRAGGING A WARM FRONT FROM S TO N THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WED WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH SHEAR/MODEST CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
PROGGED TO BE AROUND AROUND 40 KT, HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MAINLY AROUND 500-1000
J/KG, ALTHOUGH SOME HIRES MODELS ARE OVER 1000 J/KG. CURRENT
FORECAST SIDES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVC SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE OF AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE HIGHER CAPES ADVERTISED TO COME
TO FRUITION. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY (LEVEL 1 OF 5). BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH, HOWEVER COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE POOR
FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR IT TO BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS, BUT IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN IN THE MODELS. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT WITH ALLEVIATING THE DROUGHT,
HOPEFULLY PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL HELP REDUCE
THE WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALL TERMINALS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NE WINDS THAT ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. TONIGHT,
THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME (20%
CHANCE). IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND SCT MID AND UPPER CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER FRONT AND WEAK LOW MAY BRING
SUB VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING, EXITING LATER WED NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
N TO NEERLY 10-20G25KT WINDS WITH SEAS AROUND 5-8 FT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT. SCAS OVER PAMLICO SOUND AND
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT, STEPPING DOWN THIS EVENING WITH
PAMSOUND SCHEDULED TO DROP OFF BY SUNSET, BUT ODDS ARE THIS WILL
BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN THAT. ELEVATED SEAS WILL
KEEP SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS INTO MID
WEEK.
OUTLOOK: NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE ON TUE BECOMING LESS THAN
15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
HOWEVER, WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD
SEE LOW END SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS S
OF OREGON INLET REDEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...SK/CEB
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...SK/CEB
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