965
FXUS62 KMHX 302141
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
541 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2022
SYNOPSIS
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO
EASTERN NC INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF IAN
ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...PLEASE SEE HLSMHX FOR FULL IMPACT DETAILS
FROM IAN.
IAN RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST OF
IAN, A MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT IS MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND INLAND
ACROSS ENC, AND IS EVIDENCED BY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SFC, A MARINE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT STEADILY NORTH THROUGH ENC, WITH 60S DEWPOINTS
NORTH OF IT AND LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3" EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY, THIS IS
MAINLY IMPACTING OUR FAR INLAND COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, THE PRECIP IS MORE BANDED IN NATURE,
WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES STILL BEING SEEN ON RADAR
IMAGERY. THOSE MORE DISCRETE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED TO THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH. THAT SAID, THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AS THE DRYSLOT BEGINS TO
WIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST, LIMITING THE RISK OF DEEPER CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY, 0-1KM SRH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
LASTLY, THE MORE PERSISTENT, AND WIDESPREAD, AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AWAY FROM ENC, WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WELL. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, WE
HAVE BEGUN TO TRIM BACK THE FLOOD WATCH, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE THREAT DECREASES. THE SAME HOLDS FOR THE
TORNADO WATCH, AND THIS WILL BE TRIMMED BACK FOR AREAS WHERE THE
THREAT HAS DECREASED.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY, A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
CONFLUENT BOUNDARY EAST OF IAN MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO
OF CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
ENC. I TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT HELD
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. THE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA, SO IT APPEARS THAT THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LOW. GIVEN RESIDUAL SHEAR
IN PLACE, THOUGH, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ISN'T ZERO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 5 PM FRI...THE REMNANT LOW RELATED TO TC IAN MAY LINGER
AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK, FOR A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE
REMNANTS OF IAN WILL LINGER, BUT IT COULD CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH REMNANTS OF IAN LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST OR MID
ATLANTIC. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THE REMNANT
CUTOFF LOW FROM IAN WILL MERGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A BROAD COASTAL LOW
OFF THE NC/VA COASTLINE. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY FOR
SPECIFICS, IMPACTS FROM SUCH A COASTAL LOW WOULD RESULT IN
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE OBX AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL
CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL
FEATURE OUT TO SEA, BRINGING IN A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...IFR PREVAILS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, BUT
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IAN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE RAINFALL COVERAGE DECREASES. GUSTY STRONG NE
WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOME GUSTY S TO SE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT, THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS OF CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE
LATE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRI...RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A SURGE OF NRLY WINDS
WITH POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ALONG THE OBX COASTLINE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENC COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10-15 FT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN VERY ROUGH WINDSWELL, WHICH WILL BE REPLACED BY
MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH FOR ALL WATERS AND DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL
STORM FORCE AS IAN WEAKENS INLAND TO OUR WEST. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 7-10 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM FRIDAY...SUNDAY, WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
TURN BACK NNE AT 10-15 KTS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. AT THE MOMENT,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO FORECAST WHERE THE REMNANTS OF
IAN MAY END UP. HOW THAT UNFOLDS WILL IMPACT WHETHER OR NOT A
COASTAL LOW DECIDES TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING POOR MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. CURRENTLY, FORECAST MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THIS, BUT IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT ENDS UP
HAPPENING WITH IAN.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NC, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES.
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE GREATEST RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
ENC AS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE. DRY AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, AS WELL AS THE BETTER LIFT MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA, SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN
AND FLOODING BY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. UNTIL
THEN, THE THREAT OF FLASH, AND RIVER, FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
PLEASE SEE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 5 PM FRI...THE HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURRED MIDDAY IS STILL
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER REACHES OF THE TIDAL CREEKS ALONG
THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WINDS HAVE TURNED E TO SE ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS, WHICH IS CONTINUING TO PILE WATER UP ON THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AND UP THE PAMLICO AND, TO
A LESSER EXTENT, NEUSE RIVERS. MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE
INUNDATION REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, AND THE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING CONFIGURATION REMAINS UNCHANGED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-
193>196-198-199-203>205.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ045>047.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR NCZ080-081-094-195-196-199-203>205.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR NCZ094-194.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ195-196-199-
203>205.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-
230-231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CB/ML
AVIATION...CB/ML
MARINE...RM/JME/CB/ML
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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