694  
FXUS62 KMHX 051202  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
702 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH A COASTAL  
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE  
WILL CROSS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE  
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE, MAINLY  
TO LOWER THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY AND TO CAPTURE T/TD  
TRENDS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS IT MIGRATES  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, A  
COASTAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 100 MI OFFSHORE WILL  
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES  
LATE THIS MORNING WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THE SATURATED  
LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW, MAINLY BELOW 800MB, AND NOT EXPECTING  
MUCH RAINFALL, PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO AT MOST. NE FLOW WILL KEEP  
TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60-65.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG  
THE COASTAL TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
EVENING AND DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS  
EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE OBX AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST  
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE TROUGH BRINGING INCREASING DEWPOINTS  
OVERNIGHT WHICH AID IN DEVELOPING PATCH FOG OVERNIGHT AND WILL  
ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 50 INLAND  
TO MID 50S COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE  
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL  
THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE  
UPCOMING WEEK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF .5 TO UP TO AN INCH  
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE  
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC IF THIS  
RAINFALL MATERIALIZES. TEMPS WILL RUN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE AREA MON NIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW  
LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT BUT MOST  
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE  
AREA TUE INTO WED. A COUPLE OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL  
MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND BRING A THREAT FOR  
RAINFALL TO THE AREA TUE INTO WED WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS  
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST  
TO OCCUR ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WED  
NIGHT AND THU WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT  
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT AND COULD PRODUCE  
SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY TEMPS WILL BE  
BRIEFLY FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WARM SLIGHT TO NEAR  
NORMAL WED THEN DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THU AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS COULD WARM BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
SAT IF SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL  
PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES  
ACROSS RTES THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH AND A MID LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW  
SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS RTES, ESPECIALLY EAST  
OF HIGHWAY 17. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS  
EVENING WITH LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING  
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  
GUIDANCE IS MIXED HOWEVER AND LAMP ONLY INDICATING CHANCE PROBS,  
SO CONFIDENCE FOR OCCURRENCE IS LOW .  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY  
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE MAIN TERMINALS.  
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST LIKELY WILL  
REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS  
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO SEE NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND SEAS AROUND 3-5  
FT. WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH AT ALL AND MOST HIRES  
GUIDANCE OVERDONE. THEY DO SHOW WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND  
PEAKING AROUND 15Z SO WILL LET THE SCA RIDE FOR NOW, BUT IF  
WINDS DON'T INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY THEN THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE  
CANCELLED.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH A COASTAL  
TROUGH OFFSHORE. GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS  
MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT  
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND SEAS BUILDING  
UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE  
THE SCA FOR THESE AREAS. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH  
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SW FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT  
DEVELOPING AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT NORTH/CENTRAL AND 2-3 FT  
SOUTH.  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH SW  
WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH  
GUSTS TO 30 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH NORTHERLY  
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. THE FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO THE SW  
AROUND 10 KT WED AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT TO THE NW-N 15-20 KT WED  
NIGHT INTO THU BEHIND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS 2-4 FT MON  
BUILD TO 5-7 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE, THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT TUE  
NIGHT. SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT WED BEFORE BUILDING BACK  
TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU WITH 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE  
OUTER WATERS.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-  
152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-  
158.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...SK  
SHORT TERM...SK  
LONG TERM...JME/SK  
AVIATION...JME/SK  
MARINE...JME/SK  
 
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