525
FXUS62 KMHX 021742
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY BEFORE AGAIN SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY BEFORE PUSHING FARTHER
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DEPICT A COLD FRONT STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF ENC. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AMIDST DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY, WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. COUPLED
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, THIS WILL YIELD WARMER HIGHS TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE LOW-60S ACROSS MUCH OF ENC.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD THEN PUSH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED WARM FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH ENC AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CONCURRENTLY, A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH AN ATTENDANT, WEAK SURFACE LOW ALSO
TRACKING EASTWARD. INCREASING LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY LEAD TO
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER. COUPLED WITH THE TIMING OF BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY, THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT REMAINING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- A COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF ENC THIS
WEEKEND
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
AN INCREASE IN LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO
YIELD BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS ENC DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN CURRENTLY FORECAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOCATION OF
THIS LOW, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH; ALTHOUGH, THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW (CLOSER
TO OR FARTHER FROM SHORE). TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE (HIGHS IN THE 50S) AHEAD ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY/MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS
NEAR 50 SUNDAY/MONDAY.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY-TO-MID
NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE, WINDS SWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 12:15 PM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
THEREAFTER.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT 5-10 KT SW WINDS AND INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VEER TO THE NE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION, FURTHER INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING CIGS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE AT 5-10 KT WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CIGS AT OAJ, ISO, AND
EWN MAY BE BORDERLINE IFR BY 18Z WITH WIDESPREAD DROPS TO IFR
EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING LATE
TOMORROW MORNING WITH DROPS TO MVFR VIS POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
MARINE
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
- LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING ALONG THE COASTLINE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
OBSERVATIONS AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY SHOW SOME 25+ KT GUSTS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF STREAM WATERS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS OVERPERFORMING COMPARED TO THE
LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND WITH AN EXPECTED SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WINDS/GUSTS ALONG THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THIS
MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BRIEF COMPARED TO THE WATERS FARTHER NORTH UP THE COAST.
SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 3-5 FT TODAY. WITH WINDS OVERPERFORMING
TO START THE MORNING, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME 6 FOOTERS ACROSS THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.
THE WARM FRONT THEN DIPS BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH AN ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US
BEFORE STRENGTHENING ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE ENC COASTLINE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
EXPECTING ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH RAIN
ACROSS AREA WATERS, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING
SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS WHILE PULLING FARTHER
OFFSHORE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY BETWEEN CAPES LOOKOUT AND
HATTERAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN LATE SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...ZC
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