191
FXUS62 KMHX 052355
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
755 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PAMSOUND AND COASTAL WATERS S OR
OREGON INLET FOR MON NIGHT.
HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.
2) A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS
MID TO LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
4) A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH THE HIGH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK, AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY'S FCST CALLS FOR LOWER MAX TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S RECORDS, AND THUS
APPTS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AS TDS REMAIN RELATIVELY THE
SAME. SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN BOUNCING RIGHT AROUND THE
HEATADVY CRITERIA. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND NBM WITH ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSER TO REALITY AS NBM CONTINUES SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH MAXTS. NOT A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE FA THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
ORIGINATING W OF THE AREA COLLIDING WITH THE SEABREEZE MAY LEAD
TO SOME SHORT LIVED POP UP TSTORMS BETWEEN 1700-2300EDT OVER THE
WERN BORN OF THE FA.
FOR TONIGHT, INCREASING MOISTURE WITH RISING TDS BEHIND A WEAK
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
OPPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH MINTS IN THE MID/UPR 70S INTERIOR TO
LOW 80S COAST.
MONDAY, TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AGAIN AS THICKNESS
DECREASE WITH THE DECAYING RIDGE. MON MAXTS MAINLY IN THE LOW
90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S COAST. HOWEVER, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGHER TDS IN PLACE, HEAT INDICES MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY'S READINGS. CONTEMPLATED EXTENDING THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON
PERIOD, THOUGH HELD OFF AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR BY AS
EARLY AS NOON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RETURN TO A PATTERN OF INCREASED SHOWER AND
TSTORMS CHANCES MON INTO TUE, POSSIBLY INTO WED AS WELL. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES, INLAND TROUGHING, AND A VERY SLOW MOVING
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONVERGE TO PRODUCE HIGHER THAN CLIMO
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING,
AND POP CONTINUE IN THE 50-70% RANGE, WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF ENC EXPECTED. WIND SHEAR WILL BE VERY
LOW, SUGGESTING STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
HOWEVER, AS WITH ANY SUMMER STORM, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WET
MICROBURSTS AS PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, IN THE 2.25" RANGE AND
STRONGER MATURE STORMS WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THEIR LIFE-CYCLE. BECAUSE OF THIS, SPC
HAS OUTLINED AREAS ALONG AND W OF HWY17 IN A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) OF SEVERE TSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT COVG OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES MAY STILL BE IN PLACE.
BEYOND MID WEEK, POPS RETURN BACK TO CLIMO (20-40%) AS MORE
TYPICAL SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN. HTS/THICKNESSES SLOWLY
BUILD IN THE PROCESS AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN, WITH
HEAT INDICES 100-105 IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING BUILDS MID TO LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHTS RISE BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL, AND FORECAST TEMPS REACH WELL INTO THE 90S, PUSHING HEAT
INDICES TO POTENTIALLY AOA 105 DEG AGAIN AS A VERY HUMID
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL. EFI FOR BOTH MIN/MAXTS ARE
PUSHING INTO THE 80TH PERCENTILE ESP LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
EXPECTED, A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPS PER MED RANGE
GUIDANCE HINTING AT ML CAPES AOA 3.5K J/KG, AND SFC BASED
INSTABILITY BETWEEN 4-5K J/KG. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG, BUT ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNDRAFT/MICROBURST WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CHARACTERIZED BY
PW'S EXCEEDING 2".
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
TEMPO GROUP FOR POTENTIAL IFR VISIBILITY ISSUE OVERNIGHT FOR
OAJ DUE TO A NEARBY FIRE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAN CONDITIONS WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
GENERALLY 5-10 KTS GUSTING TO THE OCCASIONAL 15KTS. A FEW
GUIDANCE SOURCES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS IS HIGH AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THURS): UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MON INTO
TUE, POSSIBLY INTO WED AS WELL. BEYOND MID WEEK, MORE TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS RIDGING REBUILDS INTO
ENC.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT WILL CONT TODAY, BUT SOME FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, BUT GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KT. SEAS
CONT AROUND 2-3 FT WITH UP TO 4 FT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
ZONES.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH WED): BERMUDA HIGH PULLS OFFSHORE INTO
MONDAY WITH A FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC SERVING TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT A BIT AND EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT.
HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR PAMSOUND AND COASTAL WATERS S OF OREGON
INLET FOR WINDS 15-20G25-30KT AS A RESULT OF THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUE MORNING WITH WINDS RETURNING
TO 5-15 KT. WEAKENING FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS ON WED,
THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN JULY, THE FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT,
WITH ANY NERN FLOW BEHIND IT SHORT LIVED WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS WED EVENING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 7/5 (SUNDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 99/1990 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 92/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93/2020 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 104/1902 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 97/1990 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...RTE/CEB
MARINE...TL/CEB
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