880
FXUS62 KMHX 271045
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THURSDAY.
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT SAT/SAT NIGHT, AS WELL AS SUN INTO MON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONBLY WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH
THURSDAY PRESENTS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED STORMS.
2) DRIER AND COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI, THEN ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS
SATURDAY.
3) ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
NEXT ROUND OF DRIER AND MORE SEASONBLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, WITH FRONT STALLED TO THE NORTH/WEST AND DEEP MOIST SSW
FLOW CONTINUING. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AWAY FROM THE FRONT, CONVECTION
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SEABREEZE-DRIVEN...BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THEN SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MEAN STORM
MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, PLUS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 2"
PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. SOME INCREASE IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL YIELD BULK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR APPROACHING 25 KT, AND THUS SOME INCREASE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION DURING PEAK HEATING AS MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THE ORDER OF 2.5K J/KG.
TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SRN VA THIS EVENING, AND INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ENC LATER
TONIGHT, CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ONGOING IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE EVNENING ACRS SRN VA, AND IF THEY BECOME COLD POOL
DRIVEN AS SOME CAMS INDICATE, THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ALBEMARLE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THUS A LOCALIZED INC IN
POPS HERE TO 40-60% LATER THIS EVENING APPEARS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY, TRICKY FORECAST IN PLACE, AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
PLACEMENT WILL DICATE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTETIAL
THUNDERSTORMS. IF TONIGHT'S STORMS HOLD TOGETHER LONGER, THEY
WOULD ACT TO DRIVE THE FRONT INTO ENC EARLIER, AND THUS LIMIT
CONVECTION THREAT TO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF ENC, BUT IF FRONT GETS
HELD UP AND IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE, STORMS WOULD TEND TO
INTITIATE FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISED SOLN, AND
HAVE A BROAD AREA OF CHC POPS FOR THE NRN 2/3 OF ENC, WHILE
LIKELY TO CAT POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE SRN PORTIONS, WHERE THE
FRONT INTERACTING WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE YIELDS BEST CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPRAD SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW INC EVEN
FURTHER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR INC TO 30+ KT, AND COUPLED WITH
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY, MAY YIELD A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK THUR AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THUR NIGHT,
BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FRI AS N-E FLOW DEVELOPS.
THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT.
SOME GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL LOW PRES SWEEPING
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT, THOUGH LARGE MODEL-TO-MODEL
SPREAD, AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD, CONTINUES WITH THE
27/00Z MED RANGE MODEL SUITE, SO A GENERAL CHC SHOWERS REMAINS
FOR THE FA. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE FAR SRN AREAS OF ENC WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES, BUT DETAILS IN SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED, SO LESS THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE
SATURDAY FORECAST REMAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...GOOD CONFIDENCE ON ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE INLAND,
TO 60-65 BEACHES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR (KPGV AND KISO) TO IFR (KEWN AND KOAJ) CIGS WILL LIFT BACK
TO VFR BY 13-14Z. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WHEREVER SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE
HANDLED WITH A PROB30 AT EWN AND OAJ WHERE LOCAL SEABREEZE HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTORM FORMATION AFTER 17Z TODAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOO LOW AT ISO AND PGV FOR A PROB30 OR VCTS
MENTION ATTM.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR ESP FOR
SRN TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR MAY RETURN
SAT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME STORMS. VFR RETURNS
SUNDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN COMBO OF WINDSWELL AND LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND IN TANDEM
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND PAMLICO SOUND. MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE
CROATAN/ROANOKE DUE TO THE LOCALIZED FUNNELING FROM THE SSW
HERE BUT OPT OUT OF SCA ISSUANCE ATTM. THE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT, THOUGH SEAS
REMAIN 6 FT THROUGH THU MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. NO
CHANGE TO END TIMES FOR THE SCA'S
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
PERSISTING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THU INTO
THU NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE BEHIND THE FROPA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ENC AND REMAINING THROUGH LATE FRI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2-4 FT. WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE S ON SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AGAIN BY EARLY
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND OF NERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL
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