679
FXUS62 KMHX 241036
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
636 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RISK OF FLOODING AND A
FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
2) WEAKER COLD FRONT APPROACHES CAROLINAS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FINALLY MADE
ITS WAY OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM
ROUGHLY WILMINGTON TO ONSLOW BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, SEEING A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ALONG AN ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT, AND THIS RISK
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES
LITTLE.
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO WOBBLE BUT MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TODAY AS
MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSE OVER THE BOUNDARY IN A
PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN. THE RELATIVE LULL CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON RADAR IS LIKELY TO FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AS SW
LLJ INCREASES ONCE AGAIN, WITH HEAVIEST COVERAGE FAVORED SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY, IT IS NOT GOING TO BE
A CONSTANT DOWNPOUR BUT RATHER SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND ISO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
PWATS NEARING 2.5" AT TIMES. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN AND LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, SO OVERALL RAINFALL
RATES WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS YESTERDAY. STILL, GIVEN THE
LIKELY COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.
00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE FRONT LIFTING
SLIGHTLY BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS YET ANOTHER
WAVE TRAVERSES THE FRONTAL ZONE. IT WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT
TO THIS MORNING, WITH A LIKELY LULL IN COVERAGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND THEN ANOTHER UPTICK ON COVERAGE AS THE LLJ RESTRENGTHENS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN POOR TO MARGINAL WHICH SHOULD REDUCE MAX
POTENTIAL RAINFALL RATES SOMEWHAT, BUT RATES UP TO AN INCH AN
HOUR ARE STILL VERY MUCH POSSIBLE. NOTABLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND A SUCCESSIVE
WAVE SAT NIGHT WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT SHOULD FINALLY PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR 3-5" IN CORRIDORS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THIS IS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST, AS WELL AS THE OUTER BANKS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH. IN
ANY ROBUST CONVECTION, HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLE. THE REFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW PROBABILITIES OF 40-50% FOR AMOUNTS OVER 5"
MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 FOR TODAY
AND SATURDAY. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY, PER WPC.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNAL INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SEGMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS
BEEN EXTENDED TO SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED FURTHER
EXTENSIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TRENDING DRIER WITH THE
LINGERING FRONT FINALLY GETTING CARRIED OFFSHORE, FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT MID-
WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OUR
CURRENT BOUNDARY BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BRING
A RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105F POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF VFR AND IFR WITH SOME DRY
SLOTTING NUDGING ITS WAY OVER TERMINALS FROM ISO SOUTH.
PREVAILING MVFR IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR THUNDER WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ. WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND A RESURGENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS, A
QUICK RETURN TO IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 03-04Z SAT.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ENC THROUGH TOMORROW
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF ENC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SAT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.
MARINE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER ONSLOW BAY THIS MORNING
WITH REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED AROUND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
LITTLE THROUGH TODAY, PERHAPS LIFTING NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SAFELY BELOW SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE AREA WATERS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A STALLED FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS WELL. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WIND AND
SEA PATTERN THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-203.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NCZ090>092-094-
193>196-198-199-204-205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...MS
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