396
FXUS62 KMHX 152201
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
601 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO WILL BRING ROUGH MARINE
CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE WATERS NEXT WEEK BUT
LITTLE OTHER DIRECT IMPACTS TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FALL-LIKE
WEATHER FILTERS IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS DIURNAL CLOUDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING,
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY UNIFORM
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, RANGING
FROM 69 WELL INLAND TO 74 DEGREES BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS OF 350 PM SUNDAY...A CARBON COPY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE NC
COAST. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS MONDAY WITH LOWER 90S INLAND AND
MID/UPPER 80S BEACHES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE WORK WEEK WILL START OFF WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND UPPER
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES, AND TC HUMBERTO
CENTERED EAST OF JACKSONVILLE, FL. MEANWHILE, TC HUMBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE AN ENE TURN WELL EAST OF THE GA/SC COAST.
TUESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK ENE WELL TO THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE HUMBERTO
CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL GIVE US
A FIRST HINT OF FALL. HIGHS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID/UPR 50S INTERIOR TO
60S ON THE BEACHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR BEACH EROSION AND
PERHAPS SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES FOR PRONE AREAS OF THE
OBX DUE TO THE PROLONGED GUSTY NE WINDS AND HIGH SURF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NERLY GRADIENT BEGIN TO RELAX BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS AND A MODERATING AIRMASS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
CLIMO IN THE 80S, WITH LOWS INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY /...
AS OF 600 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
5-7Z IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR BY 14Z BUT SUB VFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.
LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM, THOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE
WITH SOME ISO SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HUMBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE BRINGING TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LIMITED FOG THREAT WITH DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. LATEST
WAVEWATCH, SWAN AND ECMWF WAVE MODELS SHOW THE BEGINNING OF THE
SE SWELL FROM HUMBERTO ARRIVING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER FOR THE WATERS
SOUTH OF HATTERAS STARTING AT 16Z MONDAY, AND FOR THE WATERS
FROM OREGON INLET TO HATTERAS BEGINNING AT 00Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT,
WINDS SHOULD BE E/NE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS RUNNING 4-5
FEET WITH 8-10 SECOND SWELLS. WINDS CONTINUE E/NE 5-15 KNOTS
MONDAY, BUT SEAS EDGE UP TO 6 FEET OR BETTER BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SUN...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM WITH GUSTY NERLY WINDS, LARGE SEAS AND AND DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AS COMBINED SWELLS FROM TC HUMBERTO AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND HUMBERTO WELL
OFFSHORE IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FORM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND TC HUMBERTO CONTINUING TO TRACK ENE
WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ON TUE, PEAKING ON WED AROUND 20-30 KT, THEN ONLY SLOWLY
DIMINISH ON THU, BECOMING LIGHTER ON FRI IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE.
SWELL FROM HUMBERTO WILL PEAK AROUND 8-11 FT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, THE BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY, THOUGH REMAIN
ABOVE 6 FT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ152.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/CTC/TL
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