619
FXUS62 KMHX 210501
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
101 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2018
SYNOPSIS
MAJOR FLOODING STILL ON GOING FROM THE EFFECTS OF FLORENCE BUT
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN
OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH LOWS AROUND 70 NEAR THE
COAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES TOWARD MORNING, BUT THEY
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A NOTE: MANY THANKS TO THE WAKEFIELD, VIRGINIA (AKQ) OFFICE FOR
BACKING US UP FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS TO ALLOW OUR OFFICE TO
RECOVER FROM HURRICANE FLORENCE, CONDUCTING STORM SURVEYS AND
ALLOWING FOLKS TO GET THEIR DAMAGED HOMES/PROPERTY IN ORDER. IT
IS VERY MUCH APPRECIATED BY THE MHX STAFF.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
ON FRIDAY THE HIGH MOVES A LITTLE OFFSHORE, BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGH SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH SOME UPPER 80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND
CONTINUES DRY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFFSHORE.
EXPECT A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND VA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT AND DECREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
INCREASING PWATS BACK ABOVE 1.5. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS (WIDELY
SCATTERED) POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED TO THE AREAS OF SHOWERS ACTIVITY AND
GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS W NC INTO VA, KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE STRONGEST LIFT TO THE W. HOWEVER, THE INFLUX OF FURTHER
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AS DIURNAL CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500J/KG.
BY MID WEEK, WILL NEED TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF A VERY WEAK, NON-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WAVE, CURRENTLY SITUATED ABOUT 150 MILES N OF
BERMUDA AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
SHEARED FOR MUCH OF ITS LIFE-CYCLE, BUT PROGS CARRY IT SLOWLY
SW, TAPPING MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THEN SLIDING IT BACK
TOWARD THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS ONCE AGAIN POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2.00 IN,
WHICH COULD INTRODUCE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG
TOWARD MORNING, BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
SATURDAY. THE RISK FOR SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA SUN-TUE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...SOME LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY IS
IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6-7
FEET. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. AFTER
THAT TIME, MODELS INDICATE SEAS DROPPING OFF TO 5 FEET OR LESS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS, BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES DIMINISHING WINDS
HAVE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY... LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO
4 FEET. SIMILAR SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ150-152.
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK
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