858
FXUS62 KMHX 231906
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST OR MESSAGING CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT FOR COASTAL AREAS REMAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. MONDAY'S THREAT MAY
IMPACT AREAS FARTHER INLAND.
2) REDUCED THUNDERSTORM RISK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING BY LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS NC THIS HOUR PER SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
ANALYSIS, FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE COAST AS OVERALL FORCING
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STARTING TO SEE SOME
GRADUAL AGGRAVATION OF CU FIELDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG
DIURNAL SOUND AND SEA BREEZES. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT IS BEING
PROVIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING SWIRLING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT TODAY APPEARS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, OF AROUND 30-35 KT. MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ARE THE FAVORED
STORM MODE TODAY BUT A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND FORECAST DCAPES OF
1000+ J/KG POINT TO DAMAGING WINDS ONCE AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT, BUT IN SUPERCELLS SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME HAIL AND A LOW RISK OF A TORNADO. THE CONVECTIVE RISK
SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, BUT SOME OVERNIGHT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA, AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AS THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT IS COMPARATIVELY LOWER.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK SURFACE LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW (THE LOW MAY ACTUALLY SUBTLY PULL
THE BOUNDARY FARTHER INLAND AS IT PROGRESSES). OVERALL PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TOMORROW, SANS A MODEST UPTICK IN
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. THIS MAY PROVIDE A
MARGINALLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IF THE
FRONT DOES GET PULLED WEST, THE CONVECTIVE RISK WILL ALSO FOLLOW
SUIT. THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS EAST OF HWY 17 WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE PRIMARY
THREAT, WITH HAIL POSSIBLE IN SUPERCELLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
AIRMASS CAN FULLY DRY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUR CURRENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE STALLED NEARBY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE FAR
SPARSER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THEN
BEGIN TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT. TODAY'S MAIN FOCUS IS SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, THEN STALLING NEAR THE
COAST. SOUND AND SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL POSE A LOW RISK (10-20%) FOR
KEWN AND KOAJ. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS, PROB30 REMAINS OMITTED
FOR THESE TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT BUT
MODESTLY DRIER AIR RAISES UNCERTAINTY ON FOG AND LOW STRATUS
COVERAGE. AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED COVERAGE APPEARS PROBABLE BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING IN TAFS UNTIL RAINFALL FOOTPRINT AND
NEAR TIME MOISTURE TRENDS.
OUTLOOK: A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT MAY GET PULLED
WEST A BIT TOMORROW AND TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIDE NORTH
ALONG IT. THIS WOULD UP THE TSRA RISK SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM KOAJ
TO KEWN. A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA
RISK AS WELL.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COUPLE OF WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, FAVORING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE PAIR OF LOWS MOVE THROUGH, BUT NEITHER LOW
LOOKS ALL THAT STRONG.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
AND LASTING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD AROUND 2-3FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE SOME TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...RM/MS
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