204
FXUS62 KMHX 090605
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY, WHILE
REMAINING THE SAME FOR SATURDAY.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, HAS
INCREASED A BIT FOR MONDAY.
MARINE: NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH POOR BOATING CONDITIONS LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IT APPEARS THE BULK OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN NC OR OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEKEND.
3) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (80-90%). DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT, SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
4) A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT MIDWEEK REPRESENTING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE AND WEAKLY SHEARED
SHORTWAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. GOM IS CUTOFF FROM MOISTURE WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE(S)
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION, AND THUS PRECIP LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE.
FOR SATURDAY, OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN (UP TO 40% CHANCE) WITH
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS (20% CHANCE) ARE STILL IN THE
FORECAST, WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN ACRS THE SRN CWA. IT
WILL NOT BE AN ALL-DAY WASHOUT, BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR LIGHT
RAIN WITH AN ISO STORM WILL BE PRESENT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH AND WEAK LIFT TRANSITS THE AREA.
SUNDAY, FORECAST HAS TRENDED EVEN DRIER, WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT OVERRUNNING EVENT, AND THE FA IN
BROAD SRLY FLOW. CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WRN
FA (COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES), BUT BULK OF GUIDANCE ON THE DRY
SIDE, INCLUDING THE AIFS, WHICH AS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DECENT AGREEMENT ON NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENTLY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH
FAIRLY SHARP TROUGHING ALOFT PIVOTING OVER ECONUS TO BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND POTENTIALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
DEPENDING ON DIURNAL TIMING, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAIN THREATS APPEARING TO BE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MLCAPE VALS APPROACHING 1K J/KG PER LATEST 08/12Z ECMWF. STILL
OUTSIDE OF HIRES GUIDANCE RESOLUTION WINDOW, BUT GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ANOTHER QUICK HALF INCH OF RAIN OR MORE IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FROPA. THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND ICON FAVOR A LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING FROPA, WHICH WOULD BE AN IDEAL WINDOW FOR A
GREATER SEVERE T'STORM THREAT. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST
UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN AMID NORTHERLY DRY FLOW
ON TUESDAY, A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SERN EXTENT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS WARM
AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITHIN A MORE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF KMRH. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW, BUT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY ENE
WITHIN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
GREATEST RISK OF LOW CIGS AND TSRA EAST OF THE TAF SITES, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD SKIRT RUNWAYS ALONG THE OBX. IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING ACTIVITY, A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOTHER RISK OF SCT SHRA AND TSRA. GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF THE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY, THEREFORE I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON WAVE, GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN EITHER LOW STRATUS OR
BR/FG, AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE FOCUSED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
TOWARDS, AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH, ENC WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHRA AND TSRA. REDUCED VIS AND LOWERED CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL.
MARINE
LIGHT N TO NERLY FLOW TODAY BECOMES SERLY AND THEN SOUTH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES OFFSHORE. WINDS REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT
RANGE, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF AROUND 20 KT AS GRADIENT INC ON
SAT. WINDS ON THE GULF WATERS ESP SOUTH OF HATTERAS WILL OCNL
GUST TO 25 KT, BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SCA'S ATTM DUE TO MARGINAL
NATURE OF THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 6
FT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ON
SUNDAY, WITH NEXT FROPA EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25+ KT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES REESTABLISHES ITSELF.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TL
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