619  
FXUS62 KMHX 210501  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
101 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MAJOR FLOODING STILL ON GOING FROM THE EFFECTS OF FLORENCE BUT  
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF  
THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN  
OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN  
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP  
INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH LOWS AROUND 70 NEAR THE  
COAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES TOWARD MORNING, BUT THEY  
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT-TERM  
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 
A NOTE: MANY THANKS TO THE WAKEFIELD, VIRGINIA (AKQ) OFFICE FOR  
BACKING US UP FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS TO ALLOW OUR OFFICE TO  
RECOVER FROM HURRICANE FLORENCE, CONDUCTING STORM SURVEYS AND  
ALLOWING FOLKS TO GET THEIR DAMAGED HOMES/PROPERTY IN ORDER. IT  
IS VERY MUCH APPRECIATED BY THE MHX STAFF.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
 
 
ON FRIDAY THE HIGH MOVES A LITTLE OFFSHORE, BUT REMAINS IN  
CONTROL MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE  
NORTHEAST TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.  
HIGH SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER  
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH SOME UPPER 80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND  
CONTINUES DRY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.  
 
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS BROAD  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFFSHORE.  
EXPECT A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST  
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND VA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF  
THE FRONT AND DECREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST  
INCREASING PWATS BACK ABOVE 1.5. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER  
ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS (WIDELY  
SCATTERED) POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD  
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED TO THE AREAS OF SHOWERS ACTIVITY AND  
GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS W NC INTO VA, KEEPING THE BULK OF  
THE STRONGEST LIFT TO THE W. HOWEVER, THE INFLUX OF FURTHER  
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE AS DIURNAL CONDITIONS  
WILL PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SFC  
BASED CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500J/KG.  
 
BY MID WEEK, WILL NEED TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF A VERY WEAK, NON-  
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WAVE, CURRENTLY SITUATED ABOUT 150 MILES N OF  
BERMUDA AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN  
SHEARED FOR MUCH OF ITS LIFE-CYCLE, BUT PROGS CARRY IT SLOWLY  
SW, TAPPING MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THEN SLIDING IT BACK  
TOWARD THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS ONCE AGAIN POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2.00 IN,  
WHICH COULD INTRODUCE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. STILL  
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG  
TOWARD MORNING, BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL NOT  
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO  
SATURDAY. THE RISK FOR SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA SUN-TUE WITH  
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...SOME LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY IS  
IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6-7  
FEET. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE  
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. AFTER  
THAT TIME, MODELS INDICATE SEAS DROPPING OFF TO 5 FEET OR LESS.  
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON MOST OF THE  
COASTAL WATERS, BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES DIMINISHING WINDS  
HAVE SUNRISE FRIDAY.  
 
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH SUN/...  
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY... LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO  
4 FEET. SIMILAR SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUN.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
AMZ150-152.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CTC  
NEAR TERM...CTC  
SHORT TERM...CTC  
LONG TERM...SK  
AVIATION...CTC/SK  
MARINE...CTC/SK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page