522
FXUS62 KMHX 172338
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCAS ISSUED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, INCLUDING A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY. WHILE
ELEVATED SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKE CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE AREA, AVAILABLE SMOKE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR FOR SAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND AND
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE BEACHES, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS 70-80
DEG. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 105 DEG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BUT ALSO WITH SOME IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE, ALONE, CAN HELP SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH,
POTENTIALLY WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION, SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND REDUCED INHIBITION IN SUPPORT OF PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
TODAY, ISO SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT BACK NWARD INTO VA TONIGHT, ACTING TO
"WARM- SECTOR" THE ENTIRE FA FOR THE WEEKEND. LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND, EVENTUALLY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH
THE FA BY MON SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW- LEVEL
FORCING THIS WEEKEND. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA OUTLINED IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SAT. THIS THREAT
FOR DAY 2 MOSTLY ENCOMPASSES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP W AND N OF THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON REACHING
NWERNMOST ZONES AFTER SUNSET SAT. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR SUN
FEATURES A SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/5) FOR A PORTION OF THE FA, AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/5) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PWATS
PEAK ON THE ORDER OF 2 AND 3/4IN WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE
GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED, THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. WHETHER THIS
OBTAINS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OR NOT, IT COULD ACT TO ENHANCE
RAINFALL ALONG THE SE COAST IF IT ENDS UP GETTING PULLED NORTH
AHEAD OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. NOT ALL GUIDANCE SHOW
THIS THOUGH, AS SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
INCREASED PROBS A BIT TO 30% PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
TROPICS ASIDE, DETERMINISTIC AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. RIGHT NOW THE SIGNAL IS THE STRONGEST ON SUNDAY. THOUGH
THIS COULD BE DEPENDENT ON LINGERING CONVECTION SAT NIGHT AND
HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE SUN. GIVEN INCREASED
FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL TAP OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HYDRO IMPACTS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREDOMINANT VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL
REMAIN, MAINLY ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN, FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DEBRIS CIRRI.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT ONCE AGAIN A VERY SHALLOW BUT SATURATED
SURFACE LAYER, SO IN AREAS WITH GOOD DECOUPLING SOME PATCHY LOW
IMPACT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN.
MAINLY DRY TOMORROW BUT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KT AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT OR AFTER 00Z SUN.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY): THE RISK OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE TSRA IMPACTS.
MARINE
LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SE-SW WINDS 5-10 KT WITH
SEAS 1-2 FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON, LIKELY ONLY MAKING IT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION,
BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO VA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
WIND SHIFT OVER NERN WATERS WHERE THE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
OR EAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EVENTUALLY, SERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY. WINDS
INCREASE TO 5-15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-3 FT. MODERATE SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
SATURDAY EVENING, PEAKING SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE
ISSUED SCAS FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY): OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS, FREQUENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT LESS
LIKELY. SEAS WILL QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE WINDS, BUILDING TO
4-7FT SATURDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE OUTER WATERS, ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAY LAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD
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