656
FXUS62 KMHX 011837
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENSION OF SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. COOLER AIR
LINGERS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY.
2) COOL AND TRENDING DRIER AS A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF
THE COAST TUE, WED, AND THURS.
3) HEAT RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCAL AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OVER EASTERN NC
IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME BROKEN
SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ORIENTED
FROM ROUGHLY KENANSVILLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A TROUGH SITTING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCAL POINT FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE A MORE
UNSTABLE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE, UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS.
OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64, IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-30 KT WHICH COULD AID IN SOME MODEST
ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE POOR (AT OR UNDER
6.0 C/KM EVEN AT LOWER LEVELS). 12Z MHX SOUNDING DID SOME SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND FORECAST DCAPES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 400-800 J/KG, SO IF A STRONGER STORM IS REALIZED SOME
GUSTY WINDS OF 40+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MI OF A POINT IS LESS THAN 5%.
COOLER AIR FLOODS IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR WILL KNOCK LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE
COOLEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND DECOUPLING LIKELY, WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WELL SHELTERED SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL HELP KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE, AND ODDS
OF ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BLEEDING ONSHORE CONTINUES TO
FALL IN THIS AFTERNOON'S UPDATE. THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS,
WHICH COULD GUST TO 20-25 MPH INLAND AND 25-35 MPH ALONG THE
COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AS WE GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, LOW
OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER OUT TO SEA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THURS AND THEN BECOMING ANCHORED OFF
THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING STEADY SW'RLY FLOW,
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES, AND WARMING TEMPS WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO GET BACK INTO THE 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST
AND OBX BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS. LONG TERM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS ROOM FOR FORECAST
HIGHS TO TREND HIGHER (PROBABILITY OF A MODERATE OR HIGHER
HEATRISK IS ALREADY 50-60%+ FROM SATURDAY ONWARD), SO THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT ISSUES ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MODEST INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR
VIS/CIGS IS FORECAST IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREAT STARTS FROM THE NORTH AND PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WITH REDUCED VIS AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS INLAND AND
25-30 KTS ALONG THE OBX AND IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THESE ELEVATED
WINDS PERSISTING INTO TUE MORNING. OF NOTE, WHERE TSRA OCCUR,
THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK OF 30-45KT
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL (<0.5" IN DIAMETER).
OVERNIGHT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z ALL TERMINALS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NEAR SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, BUT IT WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH NE GUSTS TO 15-20 KT INLAND AND
20-30 KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY EASE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST). WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO S'RLY
DIRECTION BY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST OVER THE WATERS IS A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON, AND A
COMPACT BUT STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW CURRENTLY A FEW HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WITH SUSTAINED 15-20KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISO THUNDER COVERAGE IS
OCCASIONALLY BRINGING DOWN HIGHER GUSTS. INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN NATURE BRINGING A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO ALL WATERS.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A HEARTY NORTHERLY SURGE OF WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 6-9 FT
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND 4-7 FT SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO ALL OUR WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, AND
THE DURATION OF SCA SEAS HAS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. EXTENDED SCA INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR OFFSHORE
ZONES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW
OF GALES OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS BEYOND 20 NM, BUT IS
STILL TOO WEAK TO INCLUDE HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SCA CONDITIONS COME TO AN END BY THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WARM-SEASON PATTERNS IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOCALIZED SURGES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL GRADIENTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...EH/RCF
MARINE...MS
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