193
FXUS62 KMHX 072302
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE
RIVER, AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE SEPTEMBER TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING LATE WEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT.
2) THE NEXT FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND,
WITH A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
COOLER/DRIER NE-E FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING SEASONABLE AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RE-DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND HIGH
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEK. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWER
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING INTO ENC ON FRIDAY AND
STALLING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING, AS VFR CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS ALL OF ENC THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL FLIGHT ROUTES
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND ALL DAY TUE. INLAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE BRINGING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT SOME INLAND TERMINALS, HOWEVER IT
WILL LIKELY HAVE VERY LIMITED IMPACT TO OPERATIONS. OTHERWISE
COULD SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL CU TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT DISSIPATES
TUE NIGHT.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO THE EWN TAFS AS THE
SITE IS NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS
STILL REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT
AS FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT).
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT): HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ONLY CHANGE ON THIS UPDATE WAS TO END THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND, NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS, AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS WINDS HAVE EASED
SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WINDS ARE ALREADY
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 4-5 FT
RANGE NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGEST ACROSS
ONSLOW BAY, WHILE THE SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 4-6 FT. WINDS ARE
PEAKING AT THIS TIME AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD A FOOT OR TWO INTO THE EVENING, THEN
WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORTEN THE
END TIME OF THE CURRENT SCA'S BUT SOME ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
EVEN EARLIER.
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT): WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO EASE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SW WINDS
5-15 KT RETURN WED NIGHT AND 10-20 KT THU WITH SEAS BUILDING
2-4 FT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS BUT GREATER CHANCES OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK/RCF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page