216
FXUS62 KMHX 271936
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL EXISTING GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS.
START-END TIMES FOR OTHER EXISTING MARINE HAZARDS HAVE BEEN
APPROPRIATELY ADJUSTED.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
THE FA FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
ENC TODAY.
2) FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT SEVERE RISK
IS LOW.
3) RISK OF FROST RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
4) INCREASED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF ENC.
MARINE: SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS
PROBABLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG, BUT SLOW-MOVING, COLD FRONT IS ENTERING
THE NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DIGS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID- LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH (UP TO 1-2 SIGMA), WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND.
THIS WILL THREATEN A FEW RECORD HIGHS - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO, FOCUSED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 70. WEAK INSTABILITY AND RATHER
STUBBORN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, MAKES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LESS
THAN 300 J/KG CAPE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA, BUT THERE IS A
SMALL POCKET OF 500 J/KG CAPE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
SEABREEZE WITH SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE POOLING. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY THUNDER LIES WHERE THE SEABREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE
FRONT AND OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER GSTREAM WATERS. ANY TSTORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED THOUGH. FURTHER
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THIS
BOUNDARY, WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL ON
THE COOLER, MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE FRONT.
OVERALL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL 12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH WITH SOME HIRES
MODELS SHOWING UP TO A HALF INCH. HIGHEST AMOUNT STILL APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LATEST NBM PROBS
SHOWING GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES, AND
NORTH OF 80 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. FROST HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE WXGRIDS, BUT NO HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED YET.
COLDEST MINTS MAY REACH AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER FAR
INLAND AREAS ALBEIT NOT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, AROUND
3HRS OR LESS. SHOULD THE FORECAST GET ANY COLDER, FREEZE
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NWERN-MOST ZONES IN THE FA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A DEEP, AND DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL OVERLAP WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS,
LEADING TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF ENC. IN COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT (IFD) WILL BE ISSUED FOR SATURDAY TO COVER THE THIS
RISK. ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS, THE COOL AND MORE MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER, AND THE IFD
WILL NOT INCLUDE THOSE AREAS FOR NOW. OF NOTE, PORTIONS OF THE
IFD AREA COULD COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS (IE. RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA). THIS MAY ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE
WINDS END UP HIGHER AND/OR IF THE RH ENDS UP LOWER.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 18Z/2PM, A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GUSTY WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE ONGOING ACROSS ENC, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS ENC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR THE EXPECTED
TIMEFRAME FOR WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EACH TAF SITE.
PGV: 21-23Z
ISO: 23-01Z
EWN: 00-02Z
OAJ: 01-03Z
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHRA AND SUB-VFR CIGS. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (>80% CHANCE)
OF MVFR CIGS AND A MODERATE (40-60% CHANCE) OF IFR CIGS. FOR
NOW, THEN, I WENT WITH A PREVAILING MVFR GROUP WITH SCT IFR-
LEVEL CLOUDS. REDUCTIONS TO VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT
THE SETUP DOESN'T APPEAR TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS (IE.
ONLY IN THE 4-6SM RANGE). GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A SHARP WINDSHIFT EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT, ITSELF. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KT WILL BE COMMON FROM
THIS EVENING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
MOISTURE RETURN MAY SUPPORT AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SEABREEZE, WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS.
MARINE
SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE PRESENT ACROSS ALL INSIDE AND
OUTSIDE WATERS AS COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FA. SW FLOW S OF THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY SINK SWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG NERLY SURGE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.
THE STRONGEST CAA WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY WHEN GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 6-10+ FT PEAKING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO UPGRADE PRE-EXISTING GALE
WATCHES TO WARNINGS WITH ALL OTHER SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK: SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/27 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/2020 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 77/2017 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 88/1929 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 77/1989 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 88/1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 87/2020 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-152-
154-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
DISCUSSION...MS/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS/CEB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page