412
FXUS62 KMHX 082349
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
749 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSISTS ACROSS ENC INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
3) THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS ENC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS ENC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BRINGING AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED SERVING TO KEEP STORMS SUB-
SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
NORTH.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT LIMITED UPPER LEVEL FORCING BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SW FLOW BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A HIGH HEAT RISK ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EXCEPT LOWER 90S FOR COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100-110 EACH AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY INLAND, AS SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS DEEPER
MIXING ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND FROM
THE COAST, WHICH COULD KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR MOST OF
THE FA EXCEPT FAR NW COUNTIES. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS LIKELY. WHILE
INSTABILITY HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
RTES EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIATION HAS BEEN ALONG A PLETHORA
OF FRONTAL/OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE SITUATED
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
BRINGING WIND GUSTS TO 40-60 MPH WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN SOUTH OF THE
PAMLICO/TAR RIVER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS STORMS
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. GUIDANCE STILL NOT SHOWING VERY HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR FOG OR STRATUS TONIGHT, THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS, NORTH OF THE FRONT PRIOR TO LIFTING NORTH
OF THE AREA, BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. ONCE ANY
FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATED, PRED VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. SW WILL GUST AROUND 20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY): MAINLY ISO TO WIDELY
SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE NOTED.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, AROUND 15 KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG IT ON
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT, SERVING TO
TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THESE
AREAS. WIND RELAX BRIEFLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THEN TIGHTEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SATURDAY, THEN WILL SEE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NE
AROUND 10-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
KEEPING E-NELY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ045>047-
080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ079-090>092-
094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
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