204
FXUS62 KMHX 011815
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF ENC FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED HOTTER FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS, POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
2) STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE
CAROLINAS/MID- ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE, PLUS STRONG HEATING AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNUSUALLY HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR MORE
RELIABLE FORECAST AIDS POINT TOWARDS THIS BEING AN OUTLIER TYPE
OF EVENT FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT, WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE.
THE HEAT IS FORECAST TO PEAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS WORTH POINTING OUT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO DIP SOUTH
INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, A
NOT-AS-HOT EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW MAY HOLD HIGHS DOWN SOME AROUND
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN OBX VICINITY. ONE OTHER
POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD BE MUTED THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM WOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE
TOWARDS ENC THANKS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANY
CONVECTION THAT SURVIVES INTO THE AREA COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN
SOME, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FOR NOW, THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTORS, AND EVEN IF
SO, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY ONLY IMPACT A RELATIVELY SMALLER AREA
OF ENC.
IN LIGHT OF THIS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING ANOMALOUS HEAT
AND HUMIDITY, WITH 2-3 DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT HEAT IMPACTS
EXPECTED. IN FACT, THE NWS' EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOST OF ENC IN THE "MAJOR" TO "EXTREME" CATEGORY FOR HEAT.
REGARDING MESSAGING, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST
OF ENC FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, WE HAVE LEFT OUT THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OBX IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME.
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. AS WAS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY, IT'S LESS COMMON FOR HEAT HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW IS THE FIRST HEAT HEADLINE ISSUED IN
SEPTEMBER SINCE 2020. ADDITIONALLY, PLEASE SEE THE "CLIMATE"
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD INFORMATION AT SELECT SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH ON
THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY, THEN PUSH FULLY THROUGH ENC ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER OR
NOT CONVECTION WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER,
OR UPSTREAM OF, ENC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MAY HOLD ON ONE MORE DAY, BUT THE SIGNAL IN SOME
GUIDANCE CAN'T BE IGNORED. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE FORECAST WILL
SHOW MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (30-50% CHANCE). THE SYNOPTIC SETUP APPEARS FAIRLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY IF
RIDGING DOESN'T LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION. MOST MACHINE LEARNING AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FAVOR THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL, AND SPC
HAS OUTLOOKED A PORTION OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE RISK
OF CONVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, BUT THE EVOLUTION MAY HINGE
ON FRIDAY'S CONVECTION.
BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GET BUMPED DOWN
TO THE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. THIS WILL BE A NOTABLE DROP
COMPARED TO THE HEAT OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT MAY NOT END UP
QUITE AS DRY AS SOME GUIDANCE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WON'T FEEL AS OPPRESSIVE AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE AT
THIS TIME, BUT THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW (<10%
CHANCE) THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS OF A BR/MIFG SIGNAL
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, VFR TAFS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OF NOTE, THOUGH, THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL
FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND KOAJ AND KEWN.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO THE EWN TAFS AS THE
SITE IS NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS
STILL REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT
AS FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT).
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF TSRA IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PRIOR TO FRIDAY, THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER, IF ANY CLUSTERS OF TSRA CAN DEVELOP TO
OUR NW, THE STEERING FLOW WOULD BRING THOSE TOWARDS ENC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND IS SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING FOR
PLANNING.
MARINE
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA WATERS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A DIURNAL MAX IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10- 15KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
OF 2-4FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. OF NOTE, LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF "DOLLY" ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY. SWELL
PERIODS OF 10-13S ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: OTHER THAN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH THE DAILY
THERMAL GRADIENT, GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OF NOTE, THOUGH, WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO
BUMP UP AGAINST 20KT AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY AN
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 09/02 (WEDNESDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96/2014 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 91/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 101/1932 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 91/1998 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 103/1932 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 95/1998 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 09/03 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 95/2020 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 91/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 101/1921 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 91/1998 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 98/1993 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 96/2020 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 09/04 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 98/1944 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 92/2020 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 98/1930 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 98/1980 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 96/2020 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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