744
FXUS62 KMHX 261049
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
649 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHNAGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) DRIER AND COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI, BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, WITH FRONT STALLED TO THE NORTH/WEST AND DEEP MOIST SSW
FLOW CONTINUING. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AWAY FROM THE FRONT, CONVECTION
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SEABREEZE-DRIVEN...BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THEN SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MEAN STORM
MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, PLUS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 2"
PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF
THE MID- ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS MAY OFFER AT LEAST ONE
MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, BUT PERHAPS WITH A FOCUS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ENC AS OPPOSED TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A BUMP UP IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20-
30KT. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION EACH DAY DURING THAT TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000J/KG MLCAPE MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE THREAT TO A MINIMUM.
ON THURSDAY, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ANALOG, DETERMINISTIC, AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL. MAIN CONCERN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FRI AS N-E FLOW DEVELOPS. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REMAINING
STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE, BUT STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE. PROXIMITY OF FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH, MAY KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHEST
POPS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ENC WHILE THE FAR WESTERN RTES, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM EDE TO DPL, WHERE IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING, INCLUDING IMPACTING PGV. THE STRATUS WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND COULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): A FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STALLED JUST NORTH OF ENC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF TSRA FOCUSED ALONG IT. THUS A
DAILY RISK OF SEABREEZE TSRA APPEARS LIKELY, ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WHERE SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR, AS WELL AS EACH NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING (DUE TO SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS LAYERS). A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SSW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN COMBO OF WINDSWELL AND LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. MODERATE SSW WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
EVENING, THOUGH LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS, THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND PAMLICO
SOUND WHERE SW WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 6-7 FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES PERSISTING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI,
WITH N-E FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK
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