658
FXUS62 KMHX 230230
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH, SETTING UP ANOTHER CAD
SITUATION ACROSS ENC. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUES ACROSS ENC, WITH BULK OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW, TEMPS WILL HOLD
STEADY UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER, GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SLOWLY
LIFT BACK TO THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DRYING OUT BY AFTERNOON. THE
COLDER AIR WILL HANG IN TOUGH, ESPECIALLY INLAND AND AREAS TO
THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS HOLD IN THE 40S. FARTHER SOUTH AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE CRYSTAL COAST, HIGHS WILL APPROACH 60 BY
AFTERNOON DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 PM FRI...STEADY WARMING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON USHERING DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE N SAT NIGHT
DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES, AND KEPT SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE REGION. A
NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA AHEAD OF A DEEP SURFACE LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MDLS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE QPF ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY, SO CONTINUED LOW CHC POPS EARLY
DIMINISHING AND ENDING LATE. VERY WARM SUNDAY WITH INLAND AREAS WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH 65 TO 70 BEACHES. IT WILL BECOME WINDY SUNDAY WITH
SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE...DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THRU TUE WITH
TEMPS NOT FAR FROM NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOWER 50S NE TO AROUND 60/LOWER
60S SW MON AND TUE. NW WINDS MONDAY WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH; OTHERWISE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
WED AND THU...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER THIS PERIOD AS NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA. THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION, GENERATING
MULTIPLE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND DRAGGING A COUPLE SYSTEMS OVER THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER, KEEPING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PINNED ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD AND KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC RANGE FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S NE TO
LOWER 60S SW.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT EXPECT PRED WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS(IFR OR LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS). MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS RIGHT NOW WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE PATTERN IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THAT IFR CEILINGS
WOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS CEILINGS IMPROVING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN
LOWERING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER SATURDAY, LIKELY BECOMING LIFR DURING THE DAY
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRI...LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SOME BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LLWS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AS SW JET STRENGTHENS. LITTLE SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH REGION FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR, SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR DOMINATING THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS CERTAINTY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH A POTENTIAL ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT STILL EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 15-20 KT AND
SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT
SOUTH. SCAS CONTINUE SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND. UP NORTH WE REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS
WINDS PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WE MAY HAVE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. THE DURATION WAS TOO SHORT
TO EXPAND THE SCA AT THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 KTS, WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 5 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...WINDS VEERING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM E TO SW AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WAVES 3-4 FT
BUILD TO 6-9 FEET ESPECIALLY FOR CNTRL WATERS WITH WINDS
PEAKING 20-30 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUTER WATERS.
AFTER FRONT CROSSES WINDS BECOME NW 15 TO 25 KTS SUN NIGHT THRU
EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN TO WNW AROUND 15 KTS LATE MON. SEAS WILL GRAD
SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT WINDS TUE AND WED
WITH HIGH OVER REGION AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 TO 3 FT. LOWER THAN
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH/CQD
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...RF/MS
AVIATION...RF/EH/CQD
MARINE...EH/CQD/MS
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