248
FXUS62 KMHX 170700
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATED 17/06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK.
2) OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
WARMING AND SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS TODAY AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
FLOW ALLOWS FOR LATE DAY SEABREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. ONE
MORE NIGHT IN THE 60S FOR TONIGHT BEFORE TD'S SURGE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO SSWRLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ACRS NRN HALF OF THE FA, WITH BEST
CHANCES N OF HWY 264 FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS INTO SRN PORTIONS OF ENC SAT, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS FOR SRN AREAS ON SAT. FCST A BIT
MORE MUDDLED BEYOND SAT, THOUGH POPS REMAIN IN THE 30-50% RANGE
AS ABOVE CLIMO PW'S WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RESIDING ACRS THE SERN CONUS. TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE CLIMO
ONCE AGAIN FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE TAF PD. MODEL SHORT RANGE ENS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A LOW RISK (10-30% CHANCE) OF REDUCED VIS DUE
TO MIFG, AND HAVE INCLUDED SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR BR FOR BOTH KEWN
AND KPGV. FOR TODAY, THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY, OR ONSHORE, BUT REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR
LESS.
OUTLOOK (TONIGHT THROUGH MON): HIGH PRESSURE CONT TO DOMINATE
WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRI WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM, WHICH WILL CONT THE
THREAT FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
LIGHT NERLY BREEZES CONT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AM AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SERLY, OR ONSHORE, THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING SSWRLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEARSHORE, WITH 4
FT SETS OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
NRN WATERS ON FRI, BRINGING WINDS AROUND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AGAIN FOR NRN SOUNDS AND WATERS N OF OREGON INLET. THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO INC A BIT INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE FOR ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS
BY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA HOWEVER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WINDS VEER TO SRLY BY LATE DAY, THEN BECOME
NWERLY BEHIND YET ANOTHER FROPA ON MONDAY, THOUGH SPEEDS REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE SUN INTO MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
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