932
FXUS62 KMHX 201850
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS DOT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH ENC.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
3) NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH PRECIP
PERCENTAGES DECREASING TO AROUND 20% WITH THIS UPDATE. RAIN
AMOUNTS APPEAR MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THROUGH ENC. THIS
MAY TRIGGER SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT, AND RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE 20-40% RANGE, HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW, ALBEIT ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS, SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS, REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S
INTERIOR ZONES (70S COAST), ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED
SOME ON MONDAY AS 20/12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAY LEAD TO COOLER HIGH TEMPS. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW, DESPITE THE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS, DUE TO LIGHT WINDS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC MON BRINGING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERAL 20/12Z
MODELS ARE SIGNALING A FASTER FROPA WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY 18Z MONDAY. POPS HAVE DECREASED
WITH THIS UPDATE, AS THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND GOM CUT
OFF. INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT KEEPING THUNDER CHANCES LOW. THE
MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A RAPID INCREASE
OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY 5-10 KT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT
AND WILL SEE LOWERING CEILING BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY BRINGS GUSTIER WINDS, CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT, ALTHOUGH DIAMOND
BUOY HAS OCCASIONALLY REPORTED SEAS UP TO 6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH SWRLY GRADIENT TIGHTENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST OVER THE
WARM GULF WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. HAVE ISSUED A SHORT
DURATION SCA TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY FOR THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST.
OUTLOOK: WINDS THEN TURN SWRLY ON SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. ON MONDAY, SW WIND INCREASE
WITH 10-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED, WITH SOME 25+ KT POSSIBLE ON THE
GULF STREAM WATERS, AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
PASSES THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WITH STOUT 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE, WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 6+ FT BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY ON THE
GULF WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...SK/TL
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