128
FXUS62 KMHX 172310
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
710 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NC THE REST OF TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
BUILDING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT.
2) INCREASING HEAT RISK TOMORROW ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HEAT MAKES A RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PRIMARY FOCUS THIS FORECAST REMAINS A THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS, FOCUSED ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY, THE REMNANTS OF NOW TS ARTHUR
ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE GULF STATES TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY. DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW ARE LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH
THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE
APPROACHES. EXPECTING A MODEST UPTICK IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR THURS
PM INTO FRI ASSOCIATED WITH THE TS REMNANTS, AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN LOW- LEVEL SHEAR WITH A HEALTHY LLJ OF 35-40 KT.
THIS, COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000
J/KG, WILL PROVIDE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL WIND VEERING,
HOWEVER, WHICH POINTS TO A NON-ZERO BRIEF TORNADO AND WATERSPOUT
THREAT AS WELL. SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1/5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGIN THEIR RETURN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S TOMORROW. WITH TDS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE 100-105F IN
MANY AREAS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND EXTENT OF FORECAST HEAT
INDICES 105F OR GREATER, ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY
WITH THIS UPDATE. WITH A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN WINDS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT (GUSTS 25-30 MPH) AND RHS 35-45% PAIRED
WITH DRY FUELS THERE ARE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY. AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ENC
EXCEPT FOR ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY.
THE PASSING FRONT WILL COOL THE REGION DOWN BRIEFLY FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE
AGAIN REACHING 100+.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME LOW
STRATUS FORMING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THERE WILL BE A
STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING, PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25+ KT LIKELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CROSSWIND COMPONENT FOR KEWN RUNWAY 14R/32L.
OUTLOOK: MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA THREAT AND LOWER CEILINGS RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER FRONT.
OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER AND MORE QUIET
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
WINDS ALONG THE GULF STREAM WILL STEADILY INCREASING THIS EVENING.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PREVIOUS GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE
WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE, WITH COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE
INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT, PREVIOUSLY IN A SCA, NOW IN A GALE
WARNING AS WELL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PROBABILITIES FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE LOWER BUT NOT ZERO FOR A LARGER SWATH OF WATERS
EXTENDING INTO OUTER ONSLOW BAY AS WELL AS THE PAMLICO SOUND,
AND THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE WHEN ASSESSING HI- RES GUIDANCE.
WITH THIS IN MIND, GALE HEADLINES MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS ARTHUR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY,
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE WORTH MONITORING. AN INLAND
TRACK, WHICH IS THE CURRENT EXPECTATION, COULD BRING A
WATERSPOUT THREAT TO WATERS FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK (THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY
MORNING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH
WEEKNIGHT, ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE
PASSING FRONT, WITH NEXT THREAT WINDOW FOR MARINERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/18 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96/2014 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1920 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 91/2015 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 101/1944 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 95/1984 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-
154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ180-
182.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ184-
186.
DISCUSSION...MS/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ
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