604
FXUS62 KMHX 240713
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS (THROUGH EARLY WEEK) AND SEAS (THROUGH MID
WEEK).
UPDATED 24/06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
2) DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
BREEZY TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST. THIS, COMBINED WITH
UPCOMING KING TIDE CYCLE LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS (COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF).
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE INCREASED YET AGAIN TO
8-10 FT, AND THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, AND ONLY
VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, AND LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 6 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
THREAT OF OCEAN OVERWASH TO VULNERABLE AREAS WHERE THE DUNE
STRUCTURE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. FOR OCEAN-SIDE: HIGH TIDE IS BETWEEN 6-7 AM THIS
MORNING, AND 630-730 PM THIS EVENING. SOUNDSIDE HIGH TIDES
LAG FROM 2 TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE TIDES. THE NATIONAL
PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION
FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH
OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED FROM THE MARC
BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE.
THE REGION IS ALSO ENTERING A KING TIDE CYCLE THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BUILD AND PEAK EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WITH A TREND IN HIGHER
SEAS COINCIDING WITH THE BUILDING TIDES NEXT WEEK, COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BY MID WEEK, "SUNNY DAY" COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STREET
FLOODING WILL BE LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS
AS WELL AS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY TO NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH. THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE HIGHEST OF THE DAILY TIDES THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WITH THE KING TIDE PEAKING TUE AND WED.
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES THROUGH NOON TUESDAY,
THOUGH WITH AFOREMENTIONED KING TIDES LASTING THROUGH MID WEEK,
LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND ADVISORIES FURTHER OUT
IN TIME. IN ADDITION, IF SEAS INCREAE ANY FURTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, A PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE OBX, AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN WITH US THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NEAR
AVERAGE HIGHS, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG LOWS, ESP MID WEEK WHEN
HIGH PRES BUILDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING YET AGAIN SETS UP
WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 30S AGAIN POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S (OBX) TO LOWER 70S RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STEADY NE WINDS TONIGHT AT 5-10 KTS INLAND AND
10-20 KTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX WILL KEEP THE FOG
THREAT LOW. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER TODAY WITH 10-15 KT
NE'RLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES ACROSS ENC
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): GENERALLY, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, COASTAL
SECTIONS COULD SEE MVFR STCU AT TIMES. BREEZY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUST CONT 25-30 KT. WIDESPREAD WINDS
OF 34 KT OR HIGHER HAVE DIMINISHED, AND HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED REMAINING GALES FOR OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
BACK AGAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MAY NEED TO REISSUE FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF C HATTERAS. NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE SCA RANGE, AS WELL AS THE SOUNDS AND
ALLIGATOR/NEUSE RIVER, BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DIMINISH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): HAVE INC SEAS DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD, AS AIFS/NBM SEAS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH LATEST
24/00Z MODEL SUITE. SHOULD THERFORE SEE SCA CONDITIONS EXTENDING
INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS ZONES DESPITE HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN AND BRINGING A DIMINISHING TREND IN WINDS INTO
MID WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ094-
194>196-199-203-204.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/CEB
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