088
FXUS62 KMHX 162346
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
746 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN
NOT UNTIL SUNDAY.
3) COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THANKS TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NOTABLY
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S EACH DAY INLAND, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AROUND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE ENTIRE
SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1 RUNNING ABOUT 10-
50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS
RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST
ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF
MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME DROUGHT (D3). TO GIVE A LITTLE MORE
PERSPECTIVE, MOST CLIMATE SITES IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING
HERE IN ENC, HAVEN'T SEEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST 10
DAYS DURING WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A WETTER TIME OF YEAR. UNUSUALLY
WARM CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL ONLY ACT TO
EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME, LONGER-
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS DRY PATTERN MAY LAST AT LEAST ANOTHER 1-
2 WEEKS, WITH A PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE BY LATE APRIL OR EARLY MAY.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT TODAY, AND ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS
OR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. OF NOTE, INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THIS
WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY FIRE
STARTS. A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING TODAY ON ALL
FOUR NATIONAL FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST
SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OF
LATE IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN THIS POTENTIAL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE OR "DROUGHT-DENTING" IN ANY WAY. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT 0.10"-0.30" OF RAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY LOOKS MODEST, AT BEST, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT THIS WOULD BE OVER SMALLER AREAS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE MODEST, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 50-60KT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY WEAK SIGNAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS RISK AS
THE WEEKEND DRAWS CLOSER.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION, WITH LOCAL HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN CLOSER TO WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TAF THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEADY SW WINDS AT 5-15 KTS
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE STEADY SW WINDS THINK WE REMAIN WELL MIXED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY VIS/CEILINGS ISSUES OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT THE TAF VFR INTO FRI EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WINDS ON FRI TO A W TO NW DIRECTION
AT ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO. IT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND PERHAPS SOME ISO SHRA/TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
QUICKLY TRACKS OFFSHORE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST TSRA RISK (15-20%) WILL BE FOCUSED FROM KPGV EAST
THROUGH KFFA. ELSEWHERE, THE RISK IS LOWER (AROUND 5-10%). PROBS
OF AVIATION IMPACTS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTIONS
OF TSRA OR DROPS IN VIS/CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SHRA OR TSRA THAT DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF TSRA (15-
25% CHANCE).
MARINE
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE
LOOKOUT THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS
FLUCTUATE. ELSEWHERE, 25 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE LESS FREQUENT BUT
STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SW AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-
25 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW/S AT 5-15 KT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 FT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT
COULD OCCASIONALLY REACH 6 FEET, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS SW WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 KT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN RESPONSE, PEAKING
LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT AS WELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/16 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1972 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/2006 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/2006 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/17 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1972 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 91/1972 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/18 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 93/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 85/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/19 (SUNDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 96/1917 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
DISCUSSION...SGK/OJC
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...OJC
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