696  
FXUS62 KMHX 211400  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
1000 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND  
WITH RIDGING ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY  
NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 10 AM SAT...NO BIG CHANGES WITH ONGOING FCST. SEA STRATUS  
ALONG CRYSTAL COAST AND OBX HAS SINCE MIXED OUT AND DISSIPATED.  
MAIN STORY CONT TO BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY, WITH ISO/SCT STORMS  
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WRN ZONES WHERE BETTER UVV  
EXISTS.  
 
PREV DISC...AS OF 715 AM SATURDAY...STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG  
CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO IT FOR  
A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL  
LAST THAT LONG. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO  
ASSESS THE CURRENT AREAL EXTENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH IS  
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL.  
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER RIDGING  
ALSO EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS  
WILL SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING  
NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL AID IN  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE STORMS  
WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO  
BRING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BUT A FEW MAY  
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD INSTABILITY  
WILL BE PRESENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON BUT  
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT OR LESS. A FEW STORMS  
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE  
STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE FA. TEMPS WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN  
THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND EXPECT  
HIGHS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED  
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO 80S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDICES WILL  
ALSO BE A TOUCH LOWER, MAINLY AROUND 95-100 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE  
COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC  
HEATING BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN  
SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT WE  
COULD SEE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT ONCE  
AGAIN. SWLY FLOW WILL KEEPS TEMPS MILD WITH LOWS AROUND 70.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM SAT...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD  
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE  
AREA MONDAY THEN LINGER JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK,  
WITH A STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK AND  
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA  
AND COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THEN SHIFTING  
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZE. CLOUD  
COVER SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SLIGHTLY AND LITTLE SHEAR  
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SVR THREAT. TEMPS STILL ABOVE CLIMO BUT A BIT  
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE  
LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE BEACHES AND 85-90 DEG INLAND.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE PERIOD. FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH  
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INLAND ALONG IT. MOST GUIDANCE NOW  
PUSHES THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA, THEN STALLING  
OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL  
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NE-E FLOW. BEST PRECIP  
CHANCES STILL LOOK LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIP BECOMES MORE SCATTERED  
TUE THROUGH THU, MAYBE EVEN MORE ISOLATED AT TIMES, LIKELY  
ENHANCED DURING DIURNAL PEAK HEATING. CLOUD COVER, PRECIP AND  
NE-E FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE  
70S/80S. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT  
LATE WED AND WED NIGHT WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS  
OVER THE MID-WEST LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD  
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PUSH  
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC LATE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. 00Z GFS AND  
EC ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FROPA THIS FAR OUT IN  
TIME. CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE LATE WEEK FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE SHORT TERM BUT THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUB-VFR.  
FIRST, ST/STCU CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST BRINGING LIFR CIGS  
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS INLAND FROM  
THE COAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MAY LINGER THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES.  
NEXT, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY ACROSS THE  
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY BRING GUSTY  
WINDS AND BRIEF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. FINALLY, WE COULD SEE SOME  
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ST/STCU ALONG THE COAST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT  
BRINGING LOW CIGS AND SOME REDUCTION TO VSBY. SW WINDS WILL GUST  
TO AROUND 20 KT AGAIN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 3 AM SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING  
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A  
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY, LIKELY STALLING THROUGH  
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR  
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR,  
POSSIBLY IFR MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT  
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE  
BRINGING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10-20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE  
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-15 KT BY DAYBREAK. GRADIENTS  
TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON WITH A STRENGTHENING THERMAL  
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN BACK  
TO 10-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL  
CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 3 AM SAT...MODERATE SSW WINDS 10-20 KT CONTINUE SUN,  
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT.  
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS MONDAY, THEN LIKELY STALL  
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. NE WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED  
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY WILL MAKE THE  
WIND FORECAST CHALLENGING. STRONGER NE WINDS 15-25 KT MAY  
DEVELOP TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.  
WHICH WOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL WATERS, POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT. A PERIOD OF SCA  
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN WATERS/SOUNDS AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY TO MID NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 05/21  
 
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR  
NEW BERN 96/1962 (KEWN ASOS)  
CAPE HATTERAS 85/1962 (KHSE ASOS)  
GREENVILLE 98/1964 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)  
MOREHEAD CITY 88/1998 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)  
KINSTON 98/1996 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)  
JACKSONVILLE 94/1962 (KNCA ASOS)  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...SK/TL  
SHORT TERM...SK  
LONG TERM...CQD  
AVIATION...CQD/SK  
MARINE...CQD/SK  
CLIMATE...MHX  
 
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