861
FXUS62 KMHX 202355
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
755 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PLEASANT TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH MAINLY DRY CONTINUING.
3) BECOMING HOT AND HUMID AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRIER AIR HAS INFILTRATED ENC AND IS EVIDENT BY
THE LOW/MID 50S TD'S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH 60S TD'S COAST.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT AS LIGHT/CALM WINDS
EXPECTED AND MO CLEAR SKIES. DROPPED TEMPS TO LOWEST GUIDANCE,
WITH COOLEST READINGS INTERIOR ZONES, AS WELL AS AREAS IN
VICINITY OF CROATAN AND HOFFMAN FORESTS. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
60S, WITH LOWS 70S BEACHES. REMAINING DRY ON SUN, THOUGH TEMPS
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. WITH TD'S REMAINING LOW, HEAT
INDICES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THE CONT LOW RH VALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS EWRD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE FRONT GETS
HUNG UP INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE FCST HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH
20/12Z MODEL SUITE, AND HAVE UNDERCUT NBM POPS, WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC (20%) INLAND, WITH DRY COASTAL COUNTIES. MORE BREEZY ON MON
AS THERMAL GRADIENT INC IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE PIEDMONT. SOME MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING MCS
ACTIVITY ARRIVING INTO INTERIOR ENC MON EVENING, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY RUNNING INTO DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES TO NO HIGHER
THAN 30% MON EVENING.
WITH DAMPENING SHORTWAVE EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE
WITH NWRLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE, HAVE DROPPED NBM POPS TO NO HIGHER
THAN 30-40% FOR TUE AND WED, ALIGNING WITH 20/12Z MODEL OUTPUT.
CONT HOT WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE 90S AGAIN. COVG
OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY INC FOR THU AS NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WITH THE RETURN SWRLY FLOW, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM HEAT INDICES,
THOUGH MOST LIKELY REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADV THRESHOLDS, WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 100S EACH DAY EARLY TO MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD, OTHER THAN OCNL SCT/BKN CIRRUS
STREAMING THROUGH. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD, FLOW WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW 5 KT. ON SUN, HIGH
PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WITH STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT
IN IT'S WAKE AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): RAIN AND STORM CHANCES HAVE DECREASED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND HAVE 20% OR LESS FOR MON, INC TO JUST
30-40% FOR TUE AND WED. CHANCES MAY INC A BIT FOR THU AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
MARINE
PINNED SEA BREEZE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WITH ONSHORE FLOW ENSUING. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT (5-15 KT) WILL INC ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO SUN AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS, THOUGH GUSTS WILL REMAIN 20 KT OR
LOWER, SO NO SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH THU): TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT
FOR MON AS CONDITIONS BECOME HOTTER, AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACH CTRL NC. THE WINDS HAVE DEC A BIT WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE, AND WIDESPREAD 25+ KT WINDS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM.
HOWEVER, WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THERMAL GRADIENT
INC, THE AREAS THAT TYPICALLY SEE THESE STRONGER GUSTS LIKE
EASTERN PAMLICO AND CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS, AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT NEARSHORE AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS MAY SEE OCNL
GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RTE/TL
AVIATION...RTE/TL/RJ
MARINE...RTE/TL
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