694
FXUS62 KMHX 051202
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL CROSS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE, MAINLY
TO LOWER THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY AND TO CAPTURE T/TD
TRENDS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS IT MIGRATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, A
COASTAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 100 MI OFFSHORE WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE THIS MORNING WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THE SATURATED
LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW, MAINLY BELOW 800MB, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RAINFALL, PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO AT MOST. NE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60-65.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COASTAL TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE OBX AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE TROUGH BRINGING INCREASING DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT WHICH AID IN DEVELOPING PATCH FOG OVERNIGHT AND WILL
ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 50 INLAND
TO MID 50S COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF .5 TO UP TO AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC IF THIS
RAINFALL MATERIALIZES. TEMPS WILL RUN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE AREA MON NIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUE INTO WED. A COUPLE OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND BRING A THREAT FOR
RAINFALL TO THE AREA TUE INTO WED WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND THU WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY TEMPS WILL BE
BRIEFLY FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WARM SLIGHT TO NEAR
NORMAL WED THEN DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS COULD WARM BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SAT IF SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS RTES THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS RTES, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 17. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED HOWEVER AND LAMP ONLY INDICATING CHANCE PROBS,
SO CONFIDENCE FOR OCCURRENCE IS LOW .
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE MAIN TERMINALS.
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO SEE NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND SEAS AROUND 3-5
FT. WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH AT ALL AND MOST HIRES
GUIDANCE OVERDONE. THEY DO SHOW WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
PEAKING AROUND 15Z SO WILL LET THE SCA RIDE FOR NOW, BUT IF
WINDS DON'T INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY THEN THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND SEAS BUILDING
UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
THE SCA FOR THESE AREAS. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SW FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT
DEVELOPING AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT NORTH/CENTRAL AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH SW
WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. THE FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO THE SW
AROUND 10 KT WED AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT TO THE NW-N 15-20 KT WED
NIGHT INTO THU BEHIND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS 2-4 FT MON
BUILD TO 5-7 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE, THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT TUE
NIGHT. SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT WED BEFORE BUILDING BACK
TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU WITH 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME/SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK
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