758
FXUS62 KMHX 200218
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1018 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH ENC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 2200 THURSDAY...CONVECTION HAS REACHED FAR NWERN REACHES
OF THE FA. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS. FORECAST TRACKING
WELL. INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 3KJ/KG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SEVERE THREAT SHARPLY DIMINISHES
FROM N TO S ACROSS THE FA AS CELLS GET FURTHER DISPLACED FROM
THE GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WELL TO THE
N. MAY END UP EXTENDING THE WATCH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
PREVIOUS DISCO AS OF 2000...ISSUED SEVERE TSTORM WATCH FOR THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT; INITIAL END TIME OF 03Z. COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF CAPE ABOUND AND THE THE 00Z SOUNDING CONFIRMS OUR SUSPICIONS
THAT MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE ENERGY ON TAP OVER THE AREA
DESPITE THE MARINE LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE SEABREEZE.
00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE IN EXCESS OF 5000J/KG. ONLY MAJOR
ADJUSTMENT OF FORECAST WAS TO TRANSPOSE THE POP FORECAST +1-2HR.
EVERYTHING ELSE IS REMAINING WELL ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCO...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND HUMID WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG A
PASSING COLD FRONT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
SEABREEZE, BUT RADAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
3000-3500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 25-35 KT. THE MAIN
CONCERN ALONG THE LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5 C/KM AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SRH. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWATS
AROUND 2").
GIVEN THE ABOVE, SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF THE CWA
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS OF 3:40 PM THURSDAY...QUIETER CONDITIONS TAKE OVER TOMORROW
IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AND GIVING
WAY TO WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER-80S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MID-80S ALONG THE OBX. WITH
DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER AS WELL, HEAT INDICES SHOULD MAX
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A SMORGASBORD OF SEA, RIVER, AND
SOUND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE A SOURCE OF
CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM THU...
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES LIKELY TO REACH 105 OR MORE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 110 DEGREES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WEAK FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE CREATING A
LOCAL WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING, AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
EASTERN NC. THE WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS FROM NEW BERN SOUTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY, AND WON'T BUDGE THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. INITIALLY THE HIGHEST LOW
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD FURTHER LOCALLY BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR A SEVERAL DAY
STRETCH. WE BEGIN TO RAMP UP SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES 100-105. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES SOARING TO 105-110+.
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE, NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ANTICIPATED FROM AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE CUMULATIVE MUTLI-DAY (AND ALL DAY)
EFFECTS FROM THE HEAT MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1940 THURSDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS WITH SKC WHERE THE SEABREEZE
HAS PUSHED THROUGH WITH DIURNAL CU LEFT AHEAD OF IT.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED BUT SUBVFR POTENTIAL
EXISTS WHEN A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, INLAND TERMINALS ~2-3Z. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, AND A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 03Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS MOST
LIKELY, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. RAIN CLEARS
RAPIDLY FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING JUST PAST SUNRISE. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND NWERLY BEHIND FROPA. VFR EXPECTED ALL DAY FRI WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEABREEZE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS IN AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF TEMPORARY
RESTRICTIONS TO DUE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH VFR PREVAILING AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:50 PM THURSDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE PINCHED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 20-25 KT GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-6 FT (5-7 FT CENTRAL WATERS). BY TOMORROW MORNING,
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 3-4 FT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH HAIL AND
WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GREAT BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDS IN SATURDAY WITH WINDS
VARIABLE IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SE 5-10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME S AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY, THEN W/SW 5-15 KTS MONDAY
NIGHT BECOMING S/SW AT 5-10 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT HERE, OTHERWISE W WINDS AROUND
5-10 KTS BECOMING S/SW BY THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.
SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT FRIDAY MORNING, AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ137-150-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...CEB/MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/OJC/ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/ZC
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