681
FXUS62 KMHX 150732
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
332 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRATIFORM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. CHANCES
FOR LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFFSHORE INCREASING, STRENGTH OF LOW
STILL UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, FORMING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.
3) DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE: PROLONGED LARGE SEAS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
OFFSHORE FRONT STALLS WITH LONG PERIOD FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL AND INCREASING CHANCES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES. BUILDING HTS AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SENDS TEMPS SOARING THROUGH THE 80S AND NEARING 90
FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCALES (RECORD HIGH CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
A DRY BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO NRN PARTS OF ENC LATER TODAY
WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
BEHIND IT, BUT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MUCH STRONGER FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TREND OF A DELAYED FRONTAL PROGRESSION
CONTINUES, WITH MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER BAROCLINICITY
OF THE GULF STREAM. A TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
AND PROGRESSION, WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, STRATIFORM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. THERE SEEM TO BE THREE
CAMPS OF MODEL GUIDANCE, ALL OF WHICH RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND SOME LEVEL OF COASTAL CONCERNS AS HIGH BUILDING
IN PINCHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ENC.
1. THE FIRST AND MOST LIKELY OUTCOME (WOULD CURRENTLY GIVE THIS
A 60% CHANCE OF OCCURRING) IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS
PRETTY SOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE GULF STREAM, AS
EARLY AS 00Z SUNDAY. THE IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z THURSDAY RUNS
OF EURO (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE), EURO AI, RRFS, AND NAM.
THERE IS STILL A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES FOR STRENGTH, BUT WEAK
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MEANDER
OFFSHORE, TAPPING INTO THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS AND
DEEPENING. EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
WHILE UNLIKELY, AN EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK BACK TOWARDS ENC IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
2. THE SECOND OUTCOME (WOULD CURRENTLY GIVE THIS A 30% CHANCE
OF OCCURING) IS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE GULF STREAM, FORMING
A LOW HUNDREDS OF MILES OFFSHORE A LATER ON (AROUND MON-TUE).
THIS OUTCOME IS SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, SOME GEFS
MEMBERS AND CMC. THIS OUTCOME WOULD STILL BRING STRONG NE WINDS,
BUT SHORTER IN DURATION AND LESS WAVE ENERGY REACHING COASTAL
AREAS.
3. THE THIRD AND LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME (WOULD CURRENTLY GIVE
THIS A 10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING) IS THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AND
NEVER GENERATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG NE WINDS WOULD
STILL OCCUR AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN, BUT LIKE SCENARIO 2, WINDS
WOULD BE SHORTER DURATION AND WAVE ENERGY WOULD BE ON THE LOWER
END.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF MARINE IMPACTS, AND POTENTIAL FOR WAVES 7+ FT REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE OBX. WINDS ADVISORY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
OBX ZONES, AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT COASTAL
MAINLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS
FOR SRN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
OBX WITH THE SUSTAINED NE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLEST AND DRIEST AIRMASS FOR THE FALL SEASON
THUS FAR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH
TEMPS TAKING A NOSEDIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S (INLAND) AND 50S (BEACHES). HOWEVER, DEPENDING HOW OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MAKES IT, COULD KEEP THINGS A BIT MILDER THAN FCST IF
SOME CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM OFFSHORE KEEPING THE NIGHTTIME MINS
A BIT WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH LIGHT SWRLY BREEZES. NO GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH ALL MODEL SUITES SHOWING WINDS
REMAINING AOA 2-3KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. KEPT TEMPO MVFR FOR
OAJ, WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
WAS A FIRE NW OF THE TERMINAL IN DUPLIN COUNTY AS WELL AS ONE
NE OF THE TERMINAL. SMOKE PLUME WAS NEVER DENSE ENOUGH TO SHOW
ON RADAR, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED THE PLUME WAS THINNING
JUST BEFORE SUNSET. DID NOT INCLUDE FU IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF
THIS, BUT LINGERING SMOKE COULD AID FOG DEVELOPMENT/FURTHER
DAMPEN VIS SHOULD WINDS DECOUPLE. A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS INTO
THE FA LATER TODAY FROM N TO S BEFORE BRIEFLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVERS OVERNIGHT. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED, MOSTLY JUST A WIND SHIFT AND MAYBE SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR
LOWERED CIG AND VIS (WITH IFR/LIFR POTENTIAL) INCREASING
THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT.
OUTLOOK (FRI THROUGH MON): SUB-VFR CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
MEANDERING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH SWRLY BREEZES INC
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRONG AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ON SAT, WITH SUB VFR LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER SAT WITH FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPING, ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY SAT. CLEARING SKIES SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUING SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS MOST LOCALES
WITH SEAS MAINLY 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
NORTH ALLOWING FOR PREDOM SWRLY FLOW BUT NO HIGHER THAN 5-15 KT
TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 15 KT. BACKDOOR FRONT OOZES
THROUGH THE NRN WATERS AND SOUND LATER TODAY, THOUGH DOES NOT
MAKE IT PAST PAMLICO SOUND. TO THE NORTH OF THE BNDRY, NERLY
BREEZES EXPECTED THOUGH REMAINING LIGHT, AND TO THE SOUTH,
GENERALLY SWRLY TO SRLY CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW.
OUTLOOK (FRI THROUGH MON): A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED
SLOWER, NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE WATERS UNTIL SAT, AT WHICH
POINT IT IS LIKELY TO FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.
STRONG NRLY WINDS DEVELOP IN IT'S WAKE ON SAT, PEAKING LATER
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING WITH GALES APPEARING LIKELY FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS AND MOST OF THE SOUNDS INCLUDING ALLIGATOR
RIVER. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS, GUSTS, AND SEAS TO BE
HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUTCOME
OCCURS. SEAS BUILD QUICKLY AS WELL, WITH SEAS OF 6-10+ FT
APPEARING MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURATION OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR 6+ SEAS TO LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/15 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 86/1990 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 89/1985 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 90/1975 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/16 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 90/1968 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 84/1917 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 86/2008 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 88/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ
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