927
FXUS62 KMHX 022302
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF ENC FOR FRI. EXTREME
HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ENC FOR SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THIS 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN
BACK INTO THE FORECAST EARLY TO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD INTO ENC FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH IMPACT HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED, AS THE PEAK OF IT WILL BE DURING THE BUSY
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY) WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S INLAND, POSSIBLY REACHING
100 IN SOME LOCALES, WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BEACHES. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
TOWARDS THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARM DUE TO THE INCREASED
TDS, WITH MINTS AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST, AND MID 70S INTERIOR.
HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BULK OF
ENC FOR FRI, ONLY LOCATIONS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY ARE
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES OF
THE CRYSTAL COAST, WHERE THE SEABREEZE CIRC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT MAXAPPTS IN
THESE ZONES WILL STILL BE HOT, LOW TO MID 90S. AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAT IN ZONES GENERALLY N OF HWY70
WHERE MAXAPPT VALUES REACH INTO THE 110-115DEG RANGE. ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE HOLIDAY AND REMAIN PROBABLE
SUN THROUGH MON, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES PEAK SATURDAY INTO MONDAY IN
THE MAJOR RANGE WITH SOME EXTREME RISK AREAS INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR EXTREME HEAT RISK REMAINS SIMILAR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH PROBABILITIES PEAKING AROUND 40-60%
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND 20-40% SOUTH WITH THE COMPOUNDING
DAYS AND LITTLE RELIEF DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF TIME OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD MONITOR
THE FORECAST TRENDS.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, A CAP WILL DEVELOP
WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM RELIEF THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY BUT GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF WITH EXTENT OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RETURN TO A PATTERN OF INCREASED SHOWER AND
TSTORMS CHANCES NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES, INLAND
TROUGHING, AND A VERY SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
CROSS THE FA MID-WEEK LEADING TO A DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SUMMER-
TIME POP FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. TUE
CURRENTLY HAS THE HIGHEST POPS (50-70% TUE AFTERNOON) WHEN
MOISTURE PEAKS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT TRAVERSE NECONUS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE AS VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ENC UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF
CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER ENC. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT
SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS BUT IT SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO OPERATIONS AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE KEPT 6SM MIFG FOR TERMINALS WHERE FORECAST CALLS
FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT, AND HAVE KEPT TEMPO MVFR FOG
GROUPS FOR EWN AND OAJ. RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR FRI;
LIGHT WINDS EARLY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU UNTIL THE SEABREEZE ROLLS
THROUGH.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES IN VICINITY. UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
BOTH MON AND TUE.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW E-SE WINDS 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SE-S WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS
DOMINANT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 2-3 FT. BERMUDA HIGH PULLS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC SERVING TO TIGHTEN GRADIENTS A BIT AND EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4 FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 7/3 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 98/1954 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 93/2014 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2019 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 92/1998 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 102/1954 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 96/2019 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 7/4 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 95/2023 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 94/2020 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93/1997 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 104/1902 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 98/1993 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 7/5 (SUNDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 99/1990 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 92/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93/2020 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 104/1902 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 97/1990 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-080-094-193.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB
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