507
FXUS62 KMHX 070250
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2023
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A RETURN TO
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION FORMED
FROM DUPLIN TO SOUTHERN BLADEN COUNTY, AND WILL PUSH OFF THE
ONSLOW/CARTERET COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. NO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, AND WHILE
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED, FOG MAY FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT OBSERVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PIVOTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY, DROPPING A
WEAK SFC FRONT INTO ENC IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS A BIT
BETTER WITH HIGHER PWATS FORECAST, BUT FORCING IS STILL WEAK
INITIALLY. HAVE HELD BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON,
CLOSER TO EVENING, AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH, AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL BISECT THE CENTRAL CWA BY
LATER AFTERNOON, AND THUS VERY LIMITED TO NIL CAPES WILL RESIDE
ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND THUS THUNDER MENTION IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY SETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OMEGA-LIKE BLOCKING PATTERN SETS
UP OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK,WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST.
A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING BROAD LIFT TO THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
BRIEFLY STALLING NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE, AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US HWY 17
SEEING A MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR
TWO, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE BEING
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
UPPER SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON REMAIN POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NORTHEAST H5 FLOW BRINGS DRIER
AIR ALOFT FRIDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDING MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH, WITH TEMPS TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND DRY/SETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST SUNDAY, MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIABILITY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE REGION TO BE IMPACTED BY A ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY REMAINS. HAVE OPTED TO PERSISTENT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS PRIMED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OAJ AND
SOUTH, WHICH MAY LEAD TO BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT IF
WINDS DECOUPLE/REMAIN LIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE FROM
THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH NO GUIDANCE HINTED AT
VIS OR CIGS DROPPING BELOW VFR DURING THE PERIOD, THE SMOKE IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
SW WINDS MAINLY 10-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 23-25 KT.
ANTICIPATED IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM N TO S ON WED AS A BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS. THE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE CRYSTAL COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OUT LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...OVERALL FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND WEEKEND WITH ONLY WEAK
SURFACE FEATURES BRINGING PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS,
WITH GUSTIER CONDITIONS NEARSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT MOST AFTERNOONS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DAG/TL/CB
MARINE...DAG/TL/CB
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