017
FXUS62 KMHX 191050
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TEMPS THURSDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TRENDING LATER.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 19/06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NC
2) ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.
3) A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING THE
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DAYS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, WITH DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO
REACH SATURATION. ALREADY FOG AND LOW STRATUS OBS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN PARTS OF DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES, AND GETTING
CONFIRMATION ON SATELLITE AS WELL IN THE PAST HALF HOUR.
EXPECTING FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO SLOWLY CREEP NORTH AND EAST TO
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SPS OR DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR SUNRISE TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY 9AM AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SCOURS OUT ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NOTABLY WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BENEATH AN
ANOMALOUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH
AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BUT SOME WARMER SPOTS MAY REACH MID 90S, REMAINING
JUST SHY OF RECORDS. IT WILL BE CLOSEST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN, HOWEVER.
ADDITIONALLY, DESPITE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, RIDGING
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
STILL, PROBS OF THIS OCCURING ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN SOME LATE-WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
PAST WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE FRONT REACHING OUR
CWA, WITH THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME BEING THE FRONT BRIEFLY
STALLING BETWEEN THE NC/SC BORDER AND CAPE HATTERAS. ONCE THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND RIDGING
STRENGTHENS AGAIN TO OUR SOUTH, THE WARM FRONT WILL GET
CLEARANCE TO SHIFT BACK NORTH. THE FRONT HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER TO REACH THE CWA WITH THIS UPDATE. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SEE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOLID
CHANCE OF 0.25"- 0.75" EACH DAY. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THOSE AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE. INITIALLY WHEN THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA,
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK TURNING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT COULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION, BUT IF UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THIS,
DCAPES OF 600-1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS. ON THE FLIP SIDE, UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND DEEP SHEAR LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE AND COULD INHIBIT ORGANIZED
TSTORMS. THIS SETUP WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR THE DAY OF,
WITH THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ALLOWING FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY THURSDAY. FRIDAY, LOWER SURFACE TEMPS KEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MORE MUTED, AND AS A RESULT A SEVERE RISK ISN'T
PRESENT. MACHINE LEARNING AND ANALOG GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL.
NOTABLY HIGH PWATS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER, NOTABLE HYDRO IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY STRETCH AND ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WHILE PROBS ARE LOW, IF WE DO SEE TRAINING
STORMS OVER URBAN AREAS LIKE GREENVILLE, JACKSONVILLE, AND NEW
BERN, MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS COULD BE SEEN DESPITE THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOG AND LOW STRATUS SPREADS THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN NC EARLY
THIS MORNING, BRINGING VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WHERE OBSERVED.
VIS AND CEILINGS QUICKLY LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST
AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z.
ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT DAY ON TAP TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CU FIELD AND BREEZY S'RLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INCOMING
SEABREEZE.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CHANCES RETURN WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK: A DRY SEABREEZE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO
ENC IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASING RISK OF SHRA, TSRA, AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A DAILY
BUILDING OF WINDS TO 10-20KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR
THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
WITHIN 20NM OF THE COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2-3FT,
POTENTIALLY UP TO 4 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY, THEN MEANDER AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WINDS
AND SEAS, BUT ESPECIALLY WIND DIRECTION. IN GENERAL, THE RISK
OF 25KT+ WINDS APPEARS LOW DURING THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF SEEING 25+KT GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
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