396
FXUS62 KMHX 041212
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LAND FOG THREAT DECREASING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WHILE SEA FOG THREAT LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES TRENDING UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH WILL REMAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG THREAT DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING, RETURNING
AGAIN TONIGHT.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
OFFSHORE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEA FOG HAS RETURNED TO PORTIONS OF THE MARINE
AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS, AND HAS BECOME VERY DENSE
IN SOME AREAS. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, SEA FOG SHOULD ALSO EXPAND TO COVER NOT ONLY MOST OF THE
OUTER BANKS, BUT ALSO FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND
ONSLOW BEACHES.
INLAND FOG MAY HANG AROUND UNTIL 9AM IN SPOTS, BUT WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY ONCE IT STARTS. SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL
BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE, AND COULD HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN
SOME AREAS.
TONIGHT, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG, SO
CAPPED VISIBILITIES AT 1 MILE FOR NOW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG (1/4SM OR LESS) SO THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES, SEA FOG COULD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
COAST THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION AND INTENSITY IS HARD TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR SOME
INLAND ZONES SOME AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF US 17, AND UPPER 60S/LOW
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
DUE TO VERY COLD OCEAN/SOUND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS HOLD ON.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING, EXPECTED
TO SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY AWAY FROM THE COAST BY 9AM. STUBBORN
SEA FOG MAY CAUSE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO HANG ON TO SUB- MVFR VIS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID- MORNING AS
WELL WITH A MIXTURE OF SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE GONE CALM THIS MORNING,
BECOMING S/SW AT 5-10 KT TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM
AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
SEA FOG: SEA FOG HAS ALSO RETURNED TO PORTIONS OF THE MARINE
AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER BANKS, AND HAS BECOME VERY DENSE IN SOME AREAS. AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, SEA FOG SHOULD
ALSO EXPAND TO COVER NOT ONLY MOST OF THE OUTER BANKS, BUT ALSO
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND OTHER PORTIONS OF RALEIGH BAY.
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES, SEA FOG COULD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
MARINE AREAS THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BUT
THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY IS HARD TO PREDICT THIS FAR
OUT.
WINDS/SEAS: SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL LINGER OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ADJACENT TO CAPE HATTERAS FOR MOST OF TODAY, BEFORE
FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 6 FT. OTHERWISE, GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, AND
THEN S/SW AT 5-15 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW. SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY 3-5
FT.
OUTLOOK: PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS GENERALLY BE 10-20 KTS OUT OF THE S/SW AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA, AND
WINDS/SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/05 (THURSDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 84/2015 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 74/1976 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 86/1923 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 76/2023 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 87/1976 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 83/1985 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/06 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 85/1961 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 76/1992 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 84/1961 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 74/1992 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 85/1976 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 82/1961 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/07 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 74/2022 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 84/1961 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 74/1991 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 86/1908 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 85/1974 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-136-
152-230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ154.
DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SGK
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