412
FXUS62 KMHX 050756
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY, WITH
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
2) RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THURSDAY ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, BRINGING SCATERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS. AS THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH INTO ENC, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT INLAND AND SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER ALONG THE COAST WE STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, SO SHOWERS SHOULD
KEEP THEIR STRENGTH IF NOT STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST AND FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE ENC COAST THIS MORNING IS UNCERTAIN HOWEVER.
BEYOND THIS MORNING, TODAY THE LAST DAY OF A WEAK STALLED
TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY BEFORE IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND GETS
SWEPT UP BY A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FORCING TODAY, RESULTS IN ONE LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS AIDED BY THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RECORD
HIGH PWATS FOR THE DAY OBSERVED IN THE KMHX SOUNDINGS IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE,
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING A QUICK 1-2 INCHES, RESULTING
IN MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS. IF WE GET ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 3,000
J/KG, WHICH WOULD BRING A CONCERN OF WET MICROBURSTS. AFTER WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING, RAIN CHANCES GO DOWN DRASTICALLY. FOR
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THURSDAY ONWARDS AREA RETURNS TO CLIMO OR BELOW
CLIMO POPS AS A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR SIGNIFICANT
FORCING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE, BUT ONCE AGAIN THESE CHANCES SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST
GIVEN THE OVERALL SETUP. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE OBX.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR HAS CONTINUED AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING DESPITE
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR DAYS WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. AND A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, THE THREAT FOR
SUB-VFR VIS AND CIG CONTINUE. A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH A LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING, WITH SUB-VFR CHANCES RETURNING AGAIN
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): PRECIP CHANCES AND THUS THE
THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DECREASE THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH WAVES 2-4 FT
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): EXPECT MORE BENIGN WINDS
AND SEAS FOR THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
AND SEAS PERSIST AROUND 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ
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