923
FXUS62 KMHX 150751
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
251 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES (HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST) TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR, OR LOWER, CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS.
MARINE...STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES OVER ENC TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
GULF STATES TODAY, NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, AND
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE AREA. 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND THE OUTER BANKS WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT TO SEA. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW. AREAS NEAR THE COAST
COULD GUST TO 20-30 MPH WHILE THE OUTER BANKS WILL FLIRT WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND IT, AND WE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. INLAND ZONES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON
MONDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT APPROACH RECORDS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WE WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. COLD WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP THINGS MUCH COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (50S ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS).
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN
ONGOING SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO CIGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE RA WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOWERING CIGS,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO REDUCTIONS TO VIS AT TIMES. LLWS
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A RISK OF IMPACTS FROM GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY. A LOW- END TSRA
RISK WILL BE PRESENT INTO TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM KMRH TO KHSE (10-20% CHANCE).
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BRINGS CALM WINDS. IF CLOUDS CLEAR IN TIME, THE CALM WINDS,
CLEARING SKIES, AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL BRING FOG CONCERNS TO
EASTERN NC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE GALE
FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS REACHING GALE FORCE BY THIS
EVENING. THIS AREA CAN EXPECT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT (HIGHEST NEAR GULF STREAM)
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 25-30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL REMAINING MARINE ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SURGE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE COAST. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 6-11 FT TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: SMALL CRAFT SEAS (> 6FT) WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY DUE TO BACKSWELL FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFFSHORE.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SW WINDS, AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING
BACKSWELL, WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ154-156.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...OJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page