439
FXUS62 KMHX 301004
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
604 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING
UNSETTLED AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST, WHILE TROUGHING CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOWERS AND
STORMS OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
CLIMO TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH DRIER AIRMASS
KEEPING IT FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. WEAK WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT,
WHILE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING SFC LOW APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL WEST OF THE AREA AND/OR DISSIPATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE AREA UNSETTLED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS. NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW BROUGHT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION YDAY BUT GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG PRE DAWN THIS MORNING.
HREF AND REFS PROBS ARE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
OFTEN DON'T CAPTURE SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT WELL. SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): MUCH DRIER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS. PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING FOG
AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR MAY
DEVELOP SUN WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
KEEPING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT. WINDS BECOME N/NW 5-15 KT THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 5-10
KT THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.
OUTLOOK: FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD
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