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FXUS62 KMHX 240435
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1235 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1030 PM THU...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE
OBX LATE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED BEYOND 15 NM
OFFSHORE FASTER THAN ANY GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. ADJUSTMENTS
WITH THE LATEST UPDATED REMAINED FOCUSED ON CLEARING AND
DROPPING TEMPS INLAND AND ADJUSTING WINDS ALONG THE OBX TO
REPRESENT THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SLUGGISH AND INITIALLY
SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE OBX OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WITH DRY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INLAND FALL INTO THE THE LOW TO MID 50S. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR ALONG THE COAST, AND COMBINED WITH A
NORTHERLY BREEZE, LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INNER BANKS TO LOW TO MID 60S BEACHES. LOW
LEVEL MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
AS OF 305 PM THU...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE BUT BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE NC COAST TO KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A
VERY LOW LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS FRI.
ELSEWHERE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM THU...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEK AND LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEK TO BRING A STRETCH
OF RELATIVELY COOL AND QUIET WEATHER.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION, USHERING IN A WEEKEND OF COMFORTABLE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO, GRADUALLY WARMING FROM
UPPER 70S SAT TO LOW 80S BY SUN. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF WELL
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLIDING SE BY MIDWEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS A RESULT, BUT TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE
CLIMO EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS INC, ALLOWING AFTN HIGHS TO RETURN TO
THE MID 80S. MODELS DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THU, CAUSING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EURO SHOWING UPPER LVL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS PART OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONTINENTAL US WHILE GFS SHOWING PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...VFR WILL DOMINATE THRU THIS PERIOD. HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO MCLR SKIES OVER TAF
SITES WITH CLOUDS TO THE E NEAR STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. N WINDS
MAY GUST TO AROUND 15 KTS MID MORNING THRU MID TO LATE AFTN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, PROVIDING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM THU...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL STILL TAKE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TO CLEAR EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TO 20 NM OFFSHORE.
MODERATE POST FRONTAL N WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH SEAS
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT KEEPING SCAS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AS A
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE, AND THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT N WINDS
15 TO 20 KT AS CAA MIXES READILY OVER THE STILL VERY WARM SOUNDS
AND COASTAL WATERS, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT FOR THE WATERS
MOST EXPOSED TO THE N WIND. SCAS IN EFFECT FOR THE PAMLICO,
CROATAN, ROANOKE, ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR RIVER DURING
THE DAY. THE INCREASED WINDSWELL COMPONENT ALSO RETURNS SEAS
ABOVE 6 FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND ABOUT 10 NM OFFSHORE E
AND N OF CAPE LOOKOUT, WITH SCAS REMAINING IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING BY FRI NIGHT TO 10-15 KTS, THEN DOWN TO 5-10 KTS BY
SAT AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION, PROVIDING
FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM
THE N, TURNING MORE WSW SUN INTO MON. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT FRI
BEFORE DROPPING TO 2-4 FT SAT THRU MON.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CB
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL/ML
AVIATION...RF/ML
MARINE...JME/CB/ML
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