727
FXUS62 KMHX 251021
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
621 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WITH 6 FT SEAS
STILL BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA
STRETCHING ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOME ON WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. WHEREVER IT STALLS, IT SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AWAY FROM THE FRONT,
CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY BE SEABREEZE-DRIVEN.
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
EACH DAY IS LOWER BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT EACH DAY. THE MEAN STORM MOTION PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT, PLUS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 2" PWATS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. IF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER,
THEN THE GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING WOULD BE FOCUSED THERE AS
WELL. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT EACH DAY AND WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE.
ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GET SHOVED BACK SOUTH AS
A COLD FRONT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS MAY OFFER AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER, BUT PERHAPS WITH A FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ENC AS OPPOSED TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A BUMP UP IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20-
30KT. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION EACH DAY DURING THAT TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000J/KG MLCAPE MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THURSDAY, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANALOG,
DETERMINISTIC, AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ALL HINT AT THIS
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING MOST TERMINALS, HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE REPORTING IFR/LIFR MAINLY ACROSS FAR SW RTES, INCLUDING ISO.
EXPECT VFR TO RETURN HERE BETWEEN 13-14Z WITH PRED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID DAY, BUT THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY, WITH THE STORMS MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS IF
HEATING BUT GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS A LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): A FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL
JUST NORTH OF ENC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF TSRA FOCUSED ALONG IT. THUS A DAILY RISK OF
SEABREEZE TSRA APPEARS LIKELY, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE SHRA
AND TSRA OCCUR, AS WELL AS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING (DUE TO
SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS LAYERS).
MARINE
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF ENC WATERS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-20KT PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. DESPITE THE
FRONT BEING TO THE NORTH OF MOST WATERS, A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A BROAD AREA OF LIFT, DEEP MOISTURE,
AND INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THANKS TO THE RECENT LONG-PERIOD
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH FROM THE NORTHERN INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO LAY DOWN, BUT STILL GETTING REPORTS UP TO 6
FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING, SO WILL EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK: FOR THOSE WITH BOATING PLANS FROM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS EXPECTED, WITH A DAILY
BUILDING OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20KT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. IN GENERAL, THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS THE INLAND RIVERS AND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY WHERE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
HIGHER COMPARED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO BE NEARBY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...RM/SK
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