918
FXUS62 KMHX 251149
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
649 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING CLOUDS WITH RAIN STARTING UP OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD.
2) GROWING SIGNAL FOR A FAST MOVING LOW TRAVERSING THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RISK OF BRIEF RAINFALL.
MARINE...GALES EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOR OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WITH SCA EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY. NEXT PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL BUT OVERCAST START TO THE DAY IN LARGELY
ZONAL FLOW THIS MORNING, WITH A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY IN
A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SANDWICHED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH INCREASING WAA TEMPS WILL TAKE A
NOTICEABLE JUMP TODAY, RISING INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND AND MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
THU OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE. MAIN SLUG OF PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY THURS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKE THEIR APPROACH. SOME LIMITED
THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
MODEL SPREAD ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH, WITH
ODDS OF 24-HOUR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH STILL SITTING AT
AROUND 50%. NOTABLY, PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH
TICKED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY, NOW AT 20-30%.
CONCERN REMAINS THESE ODDS ARE A BIT INFLATED GIVEN ANTECEDENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ONCE THE FRIDAY FRONT CLEARS THROUGH A FEW DRY
DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A QUICK MOVING LOW ZIPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO WORK
OUT WITH THIS GIVEN IT IS BEYOND DAY 5, ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT
LOOK AS WET AS TOMORROW'S SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HR
ACROSS MUCH OF ENC. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITHIN THIS
FLOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. GUSTS OF
20-30KT ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS MAY LAST LONGER THAN NORMAL
PAST SUNSET THIS EVENING. MODERATE WINDS ALOFT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF LLWS IMPACTS AT TIMES, BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY AGAIN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-60% CHANCE) THIS EVENING.
IN LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE ONLY INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. BY TONIGHT, THE
RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, I'VE KEPT ALL TAF
SITES VFR, BUT I INTRODUCED A SCT025 LAYER FOR KISO AND KPGV AS
BOTH SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE LOWERING CIGS COMES AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHRA THAT WILL LAST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK: A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING AN INCREASED
RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
INCLUDING A RISK OF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF
RA AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ENC THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A NE TO N WIND SHIFT.
MARINE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MARINE HEADLINES, MAINLY TO EXTEND
EXPIRATION TIMES GIVEN A MODEST UPTICK IN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE GULF WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW W-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WHILE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO
3-5 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4 FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SE, GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET
SOUTH, WITH GALES MOST LIKELY BEYOND 10 NM. SCA ALSO REMAINS FOR
PAMLICO SOUND, AND FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS (ALTHOUGH THIS IS
DRIVEN MORE BY PERSISTENT SEAS RATHER THAN WIND).
OUTLOOK: POOR BOATING CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH WINDS
BECOMING NE 10-20 KT LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT PERIOD OF
SCA POSSIBLE MON AND TUESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS
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