443
FXUS62 KMHX 131342
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
942 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN NC EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 935 AM THURSDAY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX READILY
APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MID-MORNING WITH COLD CLOUD
TOPS OFF THE SC COAST. SOME CONVECTION ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF
THE COMPLEX OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST, BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW IT
MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED, MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN TIER
AND OUTER BANKS. TWEAKED MORNING POPS JUST A BIT TO INDICATE A
SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD A HEAVIER RAIN/HIGHER COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND, WHICH LINES UP WITH
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z MHX
SOUNDING IS A 2.22 INCHES, SO MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES INTO NC
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE
EVENING TO THE COAST LATE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2" REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH
UPPER 70S BEACHES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 245 AM THU...WET WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS A CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-WEST MOVES EAST AND EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AMPLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE US NORTHERN TIER. AT THE SURFACE, THE
TYPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH/INLAND LEE TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK, THEN A WAVY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NC AND
STALL WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MOVE ALONG IT, ENHANCING
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLE
OVER THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW, DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, PW VALUES
AOA 2" AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. WHILE TIMING INDIVIDUAL
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING
INLAND, THEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHTS. WILL CAP POPS
AT CHANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS BEGINNING FROM NEAR DAWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG/LOW
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING AS A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE GREATER
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH MORNING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...MADE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE
FORECAST AS WINDS ARE RUNNING MORE SE VERSUS S. SPEEDS CONTINUE
AT 5-15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SW. SEAS 2-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
3-5 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THU...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. EXPECT S TO SW WINDS 10-15 KT
FRI, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. A WAVY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS AND STALL OVER THE WEEKEND, MAKING
WIND DIRECTIONS CHALLENGING. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT, THOUGH SOME MODELS KEEP IT
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE
NE/E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. INCREASED WINDS A BIT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING STRONGER WINDS, 15-20 KT, DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. FLOW BECOMES PRED S/SW 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH SAT THEN BUILDING TO
3-5 FT LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/CQD
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