106
FXUS62 KMHX 111846
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
UPDATED TIMING ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE PAMLICO
SOUND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF DANGEROUS HEAT FRIDAY.
2) PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO ENC, WITH PWAT'S NOW ABOVE
1.75", WITH A LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND A DECENT CAP STILL IN
PLACE STILL EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET WITH A
LOW END POTENTIAL (20% OR LESS) OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY SNEAKING IN FROM THE NW/W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME
ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR CENTRAL VA/NC. SEABREEZE CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY INLAND AS OF THIS UPDATE AS WELL WITH SW'RLY WINDS
TURNING TO MORE OF A S'RLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH
NOTED BEHIND THE SEABREEZE TODAY. THE BIGGER ISSUE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE HEAT. WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, HEAT INDICES AROUND
100-104 ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ENC. WHILE JUST
SHY OF TYPICAL HEAT HEADLINES, IT IS STILL RATHER HOT SO TAKE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY AND STAY
HYDRATED.
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. WITH STEADY SW FLOW ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, THERE WILL NOT
BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S. ONCE AGAIN
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME MID AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS ENC AS
WELL, THOUGH DON'T THINK THIS BRINGS MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS
TO THE AREA AND IT IS A LOW END CHANCE.
THEN AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER GETTING TO ABOUT 1430-1440M WHICH EQUATES TO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S GIVEN LOCAL STUDIES ACROSS ENC. THIS WILL THREATEN
RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGH INFO). WITH
DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS, HEAT INDICES
REACH 103-108 ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES AND GIVEN THIS, WE HAVE
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE COAST AND OBX WHICH STARTS UP AROUND 11AM AND GOES TO
FRI EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF ENC IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY, WITH A FEW
AREAS NEARING THE EXTREME CATEGORY WHICH LENDS FURTHER
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL HEAT ACROSS ENC ON FRI. WE WILL COOL
DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WHILE HEAT HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS MOMENT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER HOT
OUTSIDE, AND ANY PRECAUTIONS YOU CAN TAKE IF YOU PLAN TO BE
OUTSIDE FOR LONGER DURATIONS ARE ENCOURAGED. WHILE ITS A LOWER
END POTENTIAL (LESS THAN 20%) THE CAVEAT TO THE CURRENT
FORECASTED HEAT AND HEAT INDICES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS), AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
BOTH OF THOSE FACTORS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST EACH DAY.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ON FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND SEABREEZE, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES
WILL REACH 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK LESS THAN 25 KTS ON AVG, FORCING FROM THE SEABREEZE AND
SLIGHTLY LESS CAPPING COULD PROMOTE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED
STRUCTURE IN STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR. WILL NOTE, AS LONG AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS ON, VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAP A GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, AND THUS CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20%, SO
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GREATER RISK
AFTER ABOUT 7PM OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THIS IS NOTED IN
KEY MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS
SOMETHING MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS ENC THIS WEEKEND WITH
A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE FA SAT AND STALLING TO THE S OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN TROUGHING ALOFT DEVELOPS, OPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULDN'T BE READ AS A HIGH
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN FACT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE, BUT AS IS TYPICAL IN CONVECTIVE SEASON IN ENC, HIT AND
MISS STORMS ARE GOING TO DOT THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR W AND APPROACH THE
AREA NEAR SUNSET. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW FORECAST REINVIGORATE
OVER THE AREA WHEN THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE
SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE MLCAPE
VALUES MAY BE ON THE DOWNTREND FRI EVENING LOWERING TO 1000 J/KG
OR LESS BY ABOUT 9-11PM, ONGOING ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE COLD
POOL DOMINATED AND SUSTAIN ITSELF AS IT ENTERS INTO ENC.
GREATEST RISK IS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 70 WITH WIND (40-60 MPH)
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. SPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK GIVEN THE ATTENDANT WIND THREAT. HOURLY
NBM POPS KEEP THE AREA UNDER 40-50% POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT WITH LOWER POPS (20-40%) OVER THE COAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SAT AS MOMENTUM CARRIES THE WEAKENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS OFFSHORE.
TEMPS ALOFT "COOL" SLIGHTLY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THE STOUT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, AND THIS MAY SUPPORT
AT LEAST A RISK OF HIGHER COVERAGE SEABREEZE CONVECTION ON SAT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST SEABREEZE WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE
MENTIONED.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHER THAN CLIMO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN
LEADING TO PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2". ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 30-35KT ALONG THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT A
MODEST INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE NEXT
WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-WEEK FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS STEADY
SW'RLY FLOW AT 10-15 KTS REMAINS IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY
SEABREEZES. DIURNAL CU AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
THIS EVENING. SCHC OF ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS
AMONG MODEL SUITE FOR LOCATION, SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION OF PRECIP IN
TAFS. AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A LOW END
THREAT FOR SOME MID TO LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING BUT GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY HAVE
ELECTED TO JUST KEEP A SCT DECK AT 1.5 KFT AFTER 06Z AT EWN/ISO FOR
NOW AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND. EITHER WAY BY DAYBREAK EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL ROUTES INTO FRI AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS QUITE LOW FRI, BUT NOT 0. BETTER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND WHEN A
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SAT, STALLING TO THE S AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND/OR CIGS ACCOMPANYING THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS DIRECTLY ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT.
MARINE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT'S FORECAST AS THE
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD 10-20 KT
SW WINDS AND 25KT GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND
AND THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH 5-15 KT WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS ENC THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT. AS A RESULT
ONGOING SCA'S ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL WATERS
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND DECREASING
CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SW
RESULTING IN SCA'S ENDING HERE BY EARLY FRI MORNING. STEADY SW
WINDS CONTINUE WITH A POTENTIAL RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR
FRI ACROSS OUR WATERS SO WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL
ADDITION OF SCA'S IF NEEDED.
OUTLOOK (FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE): A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME,
WITH SWRLY GRADIENT FLOW MAXING OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z EACH
EVENING LEADING TO MARGINAL 25+ KT WINDS GUSTS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. SEAS OF 2-4FT WILL BE COMMON. THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. A
FRONT WILL CROSS SAT AND STALL TO THE S. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT BACK NWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/12 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 95/2016 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 89/1922 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 98/1914 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 92/1952 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 95/1986 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 95/2016 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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