666
FXUS62 KMHX 190300
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WET STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM TUE...NO PLANNED CHANGES WITH UPDATE AS FCST ON
TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 30S AT THIS HOUR.
PREV DISCUSSION... AS OF 7 PM TUE...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES, AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH
SFC HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT, EVEN COASTAL LOCALES SHOULD
BE CALM TO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, SO SOME SHELTERED LOCALES ON THE
NRN OBX WILL LIKELY REACH FREEZING OR BELOW. JUST EXPTECTING A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM THROUGH OVERNIGHT, AND SHOULDN'T HAVE
MUCH EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WX.
PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 230 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PRODUCING CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. RESULTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PRODUCE COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM TUE...ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE
DAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MORNING, WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE SPREADS
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WET AND WINDY THU INTO FRI THEN DRY AND
SEASONAL REST OF PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SE LOW LVL FLOW WILL GRAD INCREASE WITH SOME
SHRA EXPECTED TO LIFT ONSHORE WITH BEST CVRG SRN CST WHERE HAVE
LIKELY POPS LATE. WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS 40S INLAND TO LOWER
50S SRN CST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP UPR TRF WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THIS PERIOD WITH SERIES OF SFC LOWS LIFTING NE TO THE W.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SE TO S FLOW THRU THU NIGHT THAT BECOME
SW FRI. VERY DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WTR VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO
2 INCH RANGE EXPECTED LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...THESE VALUES
ARE AT THE MAX OBSERVED FOR MID TO LATE DEC. WITH GOOD LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPR TRF AND DEEP MOISTURE EXPECT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN THU INTO EARLY FRI WITH BULK OF MDLS SHOWING 2 TO 3 INCHES
OVER THE REGION, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE EXTRAORDINARY EXCESS OF
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE REGION OVER THE PAST 4 MONTHS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POSS WIND ADVRY PARTS OF IMD CST. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ERN THIRD AS WEAK INSTAB POSS NEAR CST. IF
MORE INSTAB DEVELOPS WILL HAVE SEVERE THREAT WITH IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR AND LIKELY ROTATING STORMS, FOR NOW THINK BULK OF THIS
THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WITH THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER, REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR
THURSDAY AND MAINLY MID 60S FRIDAY WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO REAL ARCTIC AIR
ANTICIPATED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S BEACHES.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PD. ONLY EXPECTING AN INC IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WED AFTERNOON
AS WAA ALOFT COMMENCES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT ENE DURING THE DAY WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WED EVENING THEN AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE COULD SEE SOME SUB VFR DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, A POSS FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE STORM EXITS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND VFR WILL CONT OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/
AS OF 230 PM TUE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT, THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. LATEST WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FEET BY
00Z THIS EVENING, SO NO CHANGE MADE TO CURRENT SCA HEADLINES.
NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL VEER TO EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...SE FLOW WILL INCREASE 10 TO 20 KT WED
NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET LATE. SE TO S WINDS INCREASE 20 TO 30 KTS THU INTO THU
NIGHT WITH DIR BECOMING SW FRI AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE TO THE W OF
AREA. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GALES FOR PARTS OF COASTAL WTRS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING WNW AND REMAINING GUSTY INTO SAT. WINDS DIMINISH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
TO 8 FT LATER THU THEN PEAK 10 TO 15 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. SEAS GRAD SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FT LATER SAT AND CONT TO DROP
TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF/CTC
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/HSA
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