997
FXUS62 KMHX 030057
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
857 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
REMOVED CLIMATE SECTION. WHILE TEMPS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY, HIGH TEMPS REMAINED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
2) COOL HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS NEXT WEEK,
BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS POSES LOCALIZED
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR AREAS ALONG THE OBX WITH
COMPROMISED DUNE STRUCTURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS, AND DEEP, MOISTURE WILL
GET PULLED NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH
ENC ON SATURDAY, THEN STALL OFFSHORE BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES
NE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST, IT WILL DRAG
THE FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH ENC LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MODEST HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SOUTH OF HWY 70. IT'S THERE WHERE
WE EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE FOCUSED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
DIFFER SOME ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, BUT
WITH STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OFFSHORE, IT STANDS TO REASON THAT
THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED, FAVORING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING PEAK HEATING FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODERATE
INSTABILITY PLUS 2"+ PWATS SUGGESTS A RISK OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AT TIMES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.50-1.50" OF RAIN,
ON AVERAGE, IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, WHERE CONVECTION IS THE MOST
PERSISTENT, RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 2-3". THIS MAY
SUPPORT A RISK OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. 3-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3-4" IN THIS AREA, WHICH SUGGESTS THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING IS LOW BASED ON THE POTENTIAL HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
BEING BELOW FFG. IT'S WORTH WATCHING, THOUGH, GIVEN SUCH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT.
ON SUNDAY, GUIDANCE DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WILL GET
AS IT BRIEFLY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS DOESN'T
APPEAR TO IMPACT THE ENC FROM A COVERAGE STANDPOINT. HOWEVER, IF
THE FRONT WERE TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH, IT COULD OPEN UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE INSTABILITY TO BE AVAILABLE, WHICH COULD
SUPPORT HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS. THIS COULD ALSO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. REGARDLESS, INCREASED LOW-MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
THE AREA AT LARGE, THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
IN TOTAL, 1-3" OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ENC OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF ENC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (COMPARED TO JUST SUNDAY
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF ENC).
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW DUE TO
WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, PERHAPS A
FEW WATER- LOADED DOWNDRAFTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS AT ITS PEAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND FRONT, A STIFF
NEERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PEAK MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL LUCKILY BE ON THE WAY DOWN, BUT
SEAS BUILDING TO 7FT, THOUGH RELATIVELY CHOPPY PERIODICITY OF 7
SEC, BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FURTHER BEACH AND DUNE EROSION
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREAS WITH SEVERELY DIMINISHED DUNE
STRUCTURES. STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
N-NE INTO LATE- WEEK, BUT SPEEDS DIMINISH TO 10-15KT LATE TUE
AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS LESS BULLISH WITH DEVELOPING IT TONIGHT
WITH HREF/REFS PROBS ONLY AROUND 30-50% AT BEST. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS, THOUGH COULD SEE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE ALSO MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MIXING BUT GUIDANCE SHOW A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW GIVING THE PLUSES AND
MINUSES AND GENERALLY HAVE MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THAN FORECAST. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN RTES SATURDAY MORNING AND
STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE PAMLICO RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THE FRONT, EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE SUFFICENT
INSTABILTY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BRINGING
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PW VALUES WILL BE SURGING TO WELL
ABOVE 2" AND SOME STORMS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CONVECTION WANING WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL RTES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: A RISK OF LOW CIGS AND TSRA WILL ACCOMPANY A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS ENC
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT FULLY OFFSHORE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL VARY DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, BUT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ENC WITH LIGHT S-SWERLY
5-10 KT WINDS AND 1-2 FT SEAS ACROSS OUR AREA WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. S-SW WINDS BUILD TO 10-15KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 1-3 FT AT 9-10 SEC
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH TUE): A FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE NW AND PASS THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING NNE AND INC A
BIT TO 10-20 KT FOR NERN MARINE ZONES BY SAT AFTERNOON.
INCREASING MOISTURE PLUS WEAK INSTABILITY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS. AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A SECONDARY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCA WINDS APPEARING LIKELY LATER
MON INTO TUE WITH 15-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 6+ FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...RM/CEB
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