728  
FXUS62 KMHX 240435  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
1235 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 1030 PM THU...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE  
OBX LATE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED BEYOND 15 NM  
OFFSHORE FASTER THAN ANY GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. ADJUSTMENTS  
WITH THE LATEST UPDATED REMAINED FOCUSED ON CLEARING AND  
DROPPING TEMPS INLAND AND ADJUSTING WINDS ALONG THE OBX TO  
REPRESENT THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW.  
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SLUGGISH AND INITIALLY  
SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO  
THE OBX OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS, WITH DRY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS INLAND FALL INTO THE THE LOW TO MID 50S. CLOUDS  
WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR ALONG THE COAST, AND COMBINED WITH A  
NORTHERLY BREEZE, LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER RANGING FROM THE  
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INNER BANKS TO LOW TO MID 60S BEACHES. LOW  
LEVEL MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION LATE  
TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 305 PM THU...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN  
INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE BUT BE CLOSE  
ENOUGH TO THE NC COAST TO KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A  
VERY LOW LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS FRI.  
ELSEWHERE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 AM THU...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION LATE WEEK AND LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEK TO BRING A STRETCH  
OF RELATIVELY COOL AND QUIET WEATHER.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BUILDS  
INTO THE REGION, USHERING IN A WEEKEND OF COMFORTABLE FALL-LIKE  
WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO, GRADUALLY WARMING FROM  
UPPER 70S SAT TO LOW 80S BY SUN. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF WELL  
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND AND  
MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY  
NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLIDING SE BY MIDWEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS  
WILL PERSIST AS A RESULT, BUT TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE  
CLIMO EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS INC, ALLOWING AFTN HIGHS TO RETURN TO  
THE MID 80S. MODELS DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THU, CAUSING QUITE A  
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EURO SHOWING UPPER LVL TROUGH  
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS PART OF AN OMEGA BLOCK  
OVER THE CONTINENTAL US WHILE GFS SHOWING PERSISTENT HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...VFR WILL DOMINATE THRU THIS PERIOD. HIGH  
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO MCLR SKIES OVER TAF  
SITES WITH CLOUDS TO THE E NEAR STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. N WINDS  
MAY GUST TO AROUND 15 KTS MID MORNING THRU MID TO LATE AFTN.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 230 AM THU...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION  
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, PROVIDING AN  
EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 845 PM THU...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE OUTER  
BANKS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL STILL TAKE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS TO CLEAR EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TO 20 NM OFFSHORE.  
MODERATE POST FRONTAL N WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH SEAS  
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT KEEPING SCAS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AS A  
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE, AND THE  
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT N WINDS  
15 TO 20 KT AS CAA MIXES READILY OVER THE STILL VERY WARM SOUNDS  
AND COASTAL WATERS, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT FOR THE WATERS  
MOST EXPOSED TO THE N WIND. SCAS IN EFFECT FOR THE PAMLICO,  
CROATAN, ROANOKE, ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR RIVER DURING  
THE DAY. THE INCREASED WINDSWELL COMPONENT ALSO RETURNS SEAS  
ABOVE 6 FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND ABOUT 10 NM OFFSHORE E  
AND N OF CAPE LOOKOUT, WITH SCAS REMAINING IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY.  
 
LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 230 AM THU...WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDING BY FRI NIGHT TO 10-15 KTS, THEN DOWN TO 5-10 KTS BY  
SAT AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION, PROVIDING  
FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM  
THE N, TURNING MORE WSW SUN INTO MON. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT FRI  
BEFORE DROPPING TO 2-4 FT SAT THRU MON.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR AMZ131-230-231.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-  
158.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...JME/CB  
SHORT TERM...JME  
LONG TERM...TL/ML  
AVIATION...RF/ML  
MARINE...JME/CB/ML  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page