672
FXUS62 KMHX 051026
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATER TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COLD FRONT NOW FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS ENC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVERHEAD AND CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT S'RLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP INLAND WITH NEAR CALM WINDS NOTED ALONG THE OBX
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S THIS MORNING WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING STEADY S-SW'RLY FLOW, INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES, AND WARMING TEMPS WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO GET
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
OBX TODAY, SAT, AND SUN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS. LOWS ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE 60S/70S EACH NIGHT NOT
PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EACH DAY. WHILE WE WILL STAY
BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA, THE CULMINATION OF HOT TEMPS IN
THE DAY AND WARM TEMPS AT NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF SEEING MODERATE HEATRISK IMPACTS WHICH WOULD
AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING
OR HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LATEST FORECAST THINKING SUGGESTS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSAGE NOW OCCURS LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS LOWERS THE THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS ENC
ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT BUT KEEPS A THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ENC ON MONDAY. WILL NOTE, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST NOT MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WHICH IN TURN COULD END UP LOWERING THE
THUNDER THREAT FOR MON IF TRENDS HOLD. EITHER WAY WE ARE
MONITORING TRENDS IN THE FRONTS TIMING IN CASE THE THUNDERSTORM
RISK INCREASES. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME NE'RLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALSO LOWERING, THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS LOWERING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS BEFORE OUR NEXT RISK AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WSW-
SW'RLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS ALL ROUTES BY MIDMORNING WITH GUSTS
UP TOWARDS 15 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS, TURNING WINDS TO A S'RLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE SEABREEZE. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A FOG THREAT TONIGHT AS
TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF RETURN FLOW ACROSS ENC AND DRY
AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO DEPART ENC.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AS WE GET INTO LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE AT SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME REDUCED VIS/CEILINGS TO ENC. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY RETURN BY TUE.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING
WITH 3-5 FT SEAS NOTED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND 4-7 FT SEAS
NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST, EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME SW-S AT 5-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
AROUND 20KTS WHILE SEAS LOWER FURTHER TO 2-4 FT ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. WILL NOTE, COULD SEE AN ENHANCED THERMAL GRADIENT SAT
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING A RISK FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS ACROSS THE PAMLICO, CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS, AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: A MORE TYPICAL WARM-SEASON PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOCALIZED SURGES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL
GRADIENTS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT WIND SHIFT AND THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-204-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF
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