343  
FXUS62 KMHX 192105  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
405 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO FROM THE NORTH AS LOW  
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND,  
BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA,  
WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AT MID-AFTERNOON.  
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER  
NORTH THROUGH 00Z. LATEST HRRR/NAM3KM INDICATE THE RAIN TAPERING  
AFTER 00Z WITH A MOSTLY DRY, BUT CLOUDY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT MID 40S OUTER  
BANKS. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL PERSIST MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM ON THURSDAY.  
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND MOVES  
OFFSHORE WELL TO OUR SE WHILE STRENGTHENING THURSDAY. NAM3KM/HRRR  
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO THE CWA BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY  
WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  
TOP- DOWN ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE TOOL INDICATES THAT PTYPE  
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH 00Z AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN  
AT 36 DEGREES OR HIGHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA  
AND CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR  
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. N/NE  
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM WED...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SOME  
WINTER- WEATHER THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS  
TO EXTENT AND ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDENCE HERE HAS ALSO INCREASED.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN  
US WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A STALLED  
FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON  
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMPT A PRECIP SHIELD  
ACROSS EASTERN NC, WITH LOW LEVEL CAA STRENGTHENING AFTER SUNSET. THE  
TEMP PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY BELOW FREEZING, SIGNIFYING  
THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN/SNOW LINE REMAINS  
UNCERTAIN, AS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL OUTLIERS IN THE LONGER-TO-  
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE, AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA/SPEED OF THE  
TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND STRENGTH  
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  
 
GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE, WITH THE ECMWF, GFS,  
CMC, AND UKMET GENERALLY AGREEING ON 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS  
INLAND AREAS NORTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER, TAPERING TOWARD NO  
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL HEAT IN THE GROUND  
WILL DELAY ACCUMULATION A BIT FROM WHEN SNOWFALL BEGINS, SO HAVE  
OPTED FOR A MOST LIKELY 2-3 INCHES INLAND. THE NAM IS THE CLEAR  
OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE, WITH A STRONGER LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE  
GULF STREAM RESULTING IN GREAT QPF AND MORE EFFICIENT CAA - A  
SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN GIVEN VERY LITTLE WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST.  
SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY  
MESOSCALE BANDING SETTING UP FOR A TIME, AS DGZ IS COLLOCATED WITH  
HIGHEST OMEGA/UVV. WHERE AND IF THIS OCCURS REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN,  
BUT THE CORRIDOR FROM NEW BERN TO KINSTON TO GREENVILLE IS CURRENTLY  
SHOWS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER,  
WITH A WINTER STORM ADVISORY ELSEWHERE  
 
AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST, STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS  
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS, AND A WIND ADVISORY  
MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE  
A CONCERN FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT NEUSE  
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES - SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE  
DETAILS.  
 
THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART BY DAYBREAK, AND ANY PRECIP WILL  
QUICKLY EXIT. IT WILL BE COLD IN THE MORNING, WITH SUB FREEZING  
TEMPS EXPECTED INLAND. ICY ROADS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY  
MORNING WITH TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. A BLUSTERY DAY DESPITE A  
RETURN TO SUNSHINE, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 30S MOST LOCALES.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH  
ARCTIC HIGH PRES SETTLING IN WITH CLR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS.  
ANY MOISTURE/SLUSH REMAINING ON THE ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE AWAY FROM  
THE BEACHES WITH LOWS EXPECTED WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH  
LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO  
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH  
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND WARM PERIOD  
IS EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE  
BULK OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.  
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MOST  
OF THE TAF CYCLE TOMORROW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL  
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. SOME LOWER CEILINGS MAY START TO IMPACT  
THE FAR SOUTHERN TAF SITE AT KOAJ AROUND NOON TOMORROW, SO DID  
INCLUDE A DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS THERE AT THE VERY END OF THE  
TAF CYCLE.  
 
LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 330 PM WED...CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY, WITH VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.  
DRIER AIR FILLS IN FRIDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND  
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO  
CONTINUED GUSTY N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF  
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SEAS UP  
TO 8 FEET OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT  
ADVISORIES, BUT GALE WATCH MAY BE NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO GALE  
WARNING LATER TONIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...  
AS OF 4 PM WED...GALES AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS (10-16+ FT) PREVAIL  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO  
SOUND. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY ALTHOUGH  
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAR SLOWER, GETTING BELOW 6 FEET BY  
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY, BRINGING LIGHT  
WINDS BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAIL  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
AS OF 4 PM WED...MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES EXPECTED FOR AREAS  
ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, MAINLY EASTERN CARTERET  
AND AREAS ALONG THE LOWER NEUSE RIVER, TODAY WITH STRONG NNE  
SURGE. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SIG FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
NNE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS EAST TO  
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR  
MINOR SOUNDSIDE WATER LEVEL RISES FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE  
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, MAINLY EASTERN CARTERET AND AREAS ALONG  
THE LOWER NEUSE RIVER, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MINOR  
INUNDATION 1-2 FT (AGL) WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND A COASTAL FLOOD  
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY  
FOR NCZ047-090-092-094-194>196-198-199.  
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>046-079>081-091-193.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-137-230-  
231.  
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.  
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
AMZ150.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.  
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR  
AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-  
156-158.  
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR AMZ156-158.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...CTC  
SHORT TERM...CTC  
LONG TERM...CB  
AVIATION...CTC/CB  
MARINE...CTC/CB  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page