042
FXUS62 KMHX 262329
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO CAPTURE
RECENT TRENDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST WITH A
MUCH COOLER 24 HOURS ON TAP ACROSS ENC.
2) A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN MID WEEK AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AS OF THIS UPDATE WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND OBX. ANY LEFTOVER RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE AREA GRADUALLY DRYS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS OF 2PM, MRMS SUGGESTS AROUND 1.5-2.5"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST HAVE FALLEN ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST, 0.25-0.75" OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN ALONG THE NOBX AND INNER COASTAL PLAIN AND 0.5-1.25"
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA.
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS BEEN
RECENTLY ANALYZED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF DELAWARE. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE MOVING LITTLE, TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY N'RLY WINDS
AND CAA TO ENC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH.
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS ENC SEEING TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WHILE HIGHS
TOMORROW RETURN ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG WITH TEMPS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING GOING FORWARD
AS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM WHILE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS CONTINUES
TO BE POOR FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR IT
TO BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS BUT IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
IN THE MODELS. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
NOT HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT WITH ALLEVIATING THE DROUGHT, HOPEFULLY
PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL HELP REDUCE THE WILDFIRE
THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS ENC. 1000-2000 FT CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID- TO LATE-MORNING TOMORROW WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE AT
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW EVENING
WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND WEAK LOW MAY BRING SUB VFR
WITH SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, EXITING ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS EXPECTED MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE QUICKLY DETERIORATED TODAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST AND AN INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
TO THE NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
PUSHING FURTHER OUT TO SEA BUT COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS OUR FAR OFFSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, MUCH OF THE AREA IS ALREADY
SEEING N-NE WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WHILE
SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO BUILD NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO 5-8 FT WITH
4-6 FT SEAS NOTED SOUTH OF HATTERAS. THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES
ARE LESS THAN 40%. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON
PEAKING AROUND 7-10 FT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 5-8 FT SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY EASE ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS DEEPENING
LOW PUSHES FURTHER OUT TO SEA ALLOWING FOR WINDS ACROSS THE
INLAND WATERS TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY MON EVENING ENDING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HERE. ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WINDS
WILL TAKE SLIGHTLY LONGER TO EASE AND WITH ELEVATED SWELL STILL
IMPACTING THE AREA, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO LAST
BEYOND MON AT THESE LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK: NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE ON TUE BECOMING LESS THAN
15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
HOWEVER, WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE
MINOR SCA CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...RCF
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