065
FXUS62 KMHX 141047
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ADDED A CLIMATE SECTION TO THE AFD.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
2) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE AND
FLOODING RISK, WITH THE AID OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
3) NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ENC.
AVIATION: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN TSRA ON FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY MORNING TODAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATING
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FILTERING INTO ENC. AS
FAR AS TODAY GOES, DO EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH YET ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP.
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY (1435-1440
M) AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 90S. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE AT LEAST NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY, THOUGH WHETHER WE REACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF MORNING CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLY
ENOUGH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
WITH A FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY ENCROACHING, MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO POOL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
POTENTIALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES OF 105-110F THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ENC. WHILE WE TOYED WITH THE IDEA FOR AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING ACROSS OUR SW'RN ZONES, THINK THE MORNING DEBRIS CLOUDS
PLUS AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
US FROM REACHING CRITERIA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT
ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF ENC. WE CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE
ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS TO STAY HYDRATED AND
TO LIMIT EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT, IF ABLE.
WHILE WE "COOL DOWN" AS COMPARED TO TODAY THIS WEEKEND, WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION SLOW TO OCCUR, TEMPS STILL GET INTO THE MID
80S ALONG THE OBX TO LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONTINUED HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 F. WHILE THE FOOTPRINT WILL
LIKELY BE SMALLER, THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ACROSS OUR SW'RN ZONES WHICH WILL BE
THE LAST TO BE IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUN INTO MON AND MON WOULD BE OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE AT MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT HEADLINES ACROSS ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2... BEST CHANCE TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURS TODAY AND OVER THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. AT THE OUTSET, HAVE A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE INITIALLY THIS MORNING WE WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE STILL IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING,
WE SHOULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE THAT PUSHES INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE MORE S'RLY AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS. SO THE SEABREEZE WONT BE PINNED ALONG THE
COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AND MORE INTERACTIONS WITH LOCAL SOUND AND RIVER
BREEZES AS WELL, AIDING IN SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THEN AS WE GET
INTO TONIGHT A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. THIS FRONT THEN LIKELY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
BRINGING CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN.
OVERALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST.
PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND TOMORROW IS MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
FLOODING POTENTIAL, SUPPORTED BY BOTH NWP AND AI GUIDANCE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK
(GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS), INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT (MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG) FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. WITH MOISTURE ALSO
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PWATS INCREASE TO 2-2.25" TODAY AS
WELL. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
RISK OF SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MIGRATES
ALONG THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WE GET LATER INTO TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE AREA TOMORROW AS WELL
YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL GIVEN
THIS ENVIRONMENT. WHILE NOT LIKELY THERE IS ALSO A NON-ZERO
TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS A RESULT SPC HAS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IN ADDITION TO THIS, SLOW STORM MOTIONS, UPPER LEVEL WINDS
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT, AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND WPC ALSO HAS
THE AREAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY. STILL PLENTY OF
DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT, BUT MEDIUM- RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE POINTS
ONCE AGAIN TO AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK AS
HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS UNYIELDING.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING WITH
THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE OBX WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG
IS NOTED RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF ENC SHOULD RETURN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
THE SUN RISES AND LEFTOVER HIGH CIRRUS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AS
WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE RISK OF TSRA IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND THE SEABREEZE.
HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT EWN/OAJ WHEN ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO START THE EARLIEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PROB30 GROUPS ACROSS ISO/PGV STILL GIVEN THE LATER START OF
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. TIMINGS FOR THESE GROUPS IS GENERALLY
DURING THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TIMEFRAME OF PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. WHERE TSRA OCCUR, THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF
40KT+. AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY LOW STRATUS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
STALL OVER ENC. TIMING FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND HAVE PUT IN SCT MVFR CLOUD DECKS IN AT ALL
TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED
FRONT DRAPED OVER ENC BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SAT
EVENING/SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. YET
ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MON/TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FRONT.
MARINE
ONGOING 5-10 KT S-SW'RLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS
ALL WATERS THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AS THIS FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WE
SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SCA
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20
KT WHEN COUPLED WITH TYPICAL THERMAL GRADIENT. AN INFREQUENT
GUST TO 25 KT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, MAINLY FOR
SOUNDSIDE WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF HATTERAS, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT SCA HEADLINES. WITH WINDS
INCREASING SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 2-4 FT THIS EVENING. THESE
ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOME WITH WINDS FALLING TO 5-15 KTS AND SEAS
BACK DOWN TO 1-3 FT. FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 35-40
KT.
A RETURN TO MORE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. YET ANOTHER FRONT NEARS THE AREA MON INTO TUE BRINGING
YET ANOTHER LOW-END CHANCE AT SCA CONDITIONS AND MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 08/14 FRIDAY
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 97/2023 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 91/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1918 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93/1995 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 104/1925 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 96/2019 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
203>205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF
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