343
FXUS62 KMHX 192105
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020
SYNOPSIS
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO FROM THE NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA,
WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AT MID-AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH THROUGH 00Z. LATEST HRRR/NAM3KM INDICATE THE RAIN TAPERING
AFTER 00Z WITH A MOSTLY DRY, BUT CLOUDY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT MID 40S OUTER
BANKS. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL PERSIST MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND MOVES
OFFSHORE WELL TO OUR SE WHILE STRENGTHENING THURSDAY. NAM3KM/HRRR
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO THE CWA BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY
WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
TOP- DOWN ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE TOOL INDICATES THAT PTYPE
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH 00Z AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AT 36 DEGREES OR HIGHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA
AND CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. N/NE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM WED...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SOME
WINTER- WEATHER THREAT ACROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS
TO EXTENT AND ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDENCE HERE HAS ALSO INCREASED.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
US WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A STALLED
FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMPT A PRECIP SHIELD
ACROSS EASTERN NC, WITH LOW LEVEL CAA STRENGTHENING AFTER SUNSET. THE
TEMP PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY BELOW FREEZING, SIGNIFYING
THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN/SNOW LINE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, AS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL OUTLIERS IN THE LONGER-TO-
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE, AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA/SPEED OF THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE, WITH THE ECMWF, GFS,
CMC, AND UKMET GENERALLY AGREEING ON 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
INLAND AREAS NORTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER, TAPERING TOWARD NO
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL HEAT IN THE GROUND
WILL DELAY ACCUMULATION A BIT FROM WHEN SNOWFALL BEGINS, SO HAVE
OPTED FOR A MOST LIKELY 2-3 INCHES INLAND. THE NAM IS THE CLEAR
OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE, WITH A STRONGER LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE
GULF STREAM RESULTING IN GREAT QPF AND MORE EFFICIENT CAA - A
SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN GIVEN VERY LITTLE WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST.
SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
MESOSCALE BANDING SETTING UP FOR A TIME, AS DGZ IS COLLOCATED WITH
HIGHEST OMEGA/UVV. WHERE AND IF THIS OCCURS REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN,
BUT THE CORRIDOR FROM NEW BERN TO KINSTON TO GREENVILLE IS CURRENTLY
SHOWS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER,
WITH A WINTER STORM ADVISORY ELSEWHERE
AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST, STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS, AND A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT NEUSE
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES - SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART BY DAYBREAK, AND ANY PRECIP WILL
QUICKLY EXIT. IT WILL BE COLD IN THE MORNING, WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPS EXPECTED INLAND. ICY ROADS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. A BLUSTERY DAY DESPITE A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 30S MOST LOCALES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRES SETTLING IN WITH CLR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
ANY MOISTURE/SLUSH REMAINING ON THE ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES WITH LOWS EXPECTED WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH
LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND WARM PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE
BULK OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE TOMORROW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. SOME LOWER CEILINGS MAY START TO IMPACT
THE FAR SOUTHERN TAF SITE AT KOAJ AROUND NOON TOMORROW, SO DID
INCLUDE A DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS THERE AT THE VERY END OF THE
TAF CYCLE.
LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY, WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILLS IN FRIDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED GUSTY N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SEAS UP
TO 8 FEET OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORIES, BUT GALE WATCH MAY BE NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO GALE
WARNING LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 4 PM WED...GALES AND VERY DANGEROUS SEAS (10-16+ FT) PREVAIL
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAR SLOWER, GETTING BELOW 6 FEET BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY, BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 4 PM WED...MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES EXPECTED FOR AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, MAINLY EASTERN CARTERET
AND AREAS ALONG THE LOWER NEUSE RIVER, TODAY WITH STRONG NNE
SURGE. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SIG FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS
TIME.
NNE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS EAST TO
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR SOUNDSIDE WATER LEVEL RISES FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, MAINLY EASTERN CARTERET AND AREAS ALONG
THE LOWER NEUSE RIVER, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MINOR
INUNDATION 1-2 FT (AGL) WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ047-090-092-094-194>196-198-199.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>046-079>081-091-193.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-137-230-
231.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...CTC/CB
MARINE...CTC/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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