502
FXUS62 KMHX 150657
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
257 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND,
INCLUDING THE NEXT RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WARMING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
BENEATH IT. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS
TODAY, POTENTIALLY LASTING ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. RIDGING
PLUS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WILL PROBABLY LIMIT CLOUDCOVER
AS WELL. STRONG HEATING PLUS ALL OF THE FACTORS ABOVE SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND, AND
AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE 60S INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WHILE IT WILL
BE HOT, THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES, LOWERING THE RISK OF 105+ HEAT
INDICES. THIS SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH, THURSDAY MAY COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND OF THE COAST WHERE RISING DEWPOINTS ALONG
THE SEABREEZE MAY SUPPORT A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105.
FROM FRIDAY ON, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED, AND MOISTENING, SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO DEWPOINTS CONSISTENTLY STAYING IN THE 70S, EVEN DURING PEAK
HEATING/MIXING. IT'S AT THIS POINT THAT THE RISK OF HEAT INDICES
OF 105-110 DEGREES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, AND IS WHEN HEAT
HEADLINES ARE MOST LIKELY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND INCREASED
CLOUDCOVER MAY EVENTUALLY FACTOR IN REGARDING HEADLINES VS NO
HEADLINES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID BY
THEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SETUP
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, PLUS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
FORCING, IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD.
INITIALLY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG
THE SEABREEZE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. AN INCREASING COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK
(<25KT), BUT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A
DAILY RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION.
THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS IN ANALOG AND MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE, AND POTENTIAL IMPACT,
OVERNIGHT IS BR/MIFG/FG. SOME OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPORARY DROPS TO IFR, OR LOWER, CONDITIONS. BASED
ON WEBCAMS, THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SHALLOW FOG AS OPPOSED TO
SOMETHING WITH MORE DEPTH. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT THE PLAN FOR NOW IS TO HOLD WITH MVFR VIS
UNLESS OBSERVATIONS OR SATELLITE SUGGEST OTHERWISE. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z ON WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH NO TSRA RISK. OF
NOTE, THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KOAJ
AND KEWN BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH A BUMP UP IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF BR/MIFG/FG MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A REDUCED
RISK OF TSRA. ON FRIDAY, ISOLATED SEABREEZE TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING RISK
OF TSRA IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND STEADILY BUILD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE BUILDING WINDS LATER TODAY, SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 2-3FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING AT 15-25KT BY
SATURDAY, THEN REMAINING AROUND THAT RANGE INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO 3-5FT BY SATURDAY, THEN PEAK IN THE
4-7FT RANGE BY SUNDAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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