096  
FXUS62 KMHX 130538  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
138 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW  
PRESSURE AREA AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO CHANGES WITH EVE UPDATE.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... AS OF 7 PM MON...ONLY UPDATE TO INC LOW  
CLOUDS A BIT THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, AS SOME BKN STRATUS  
MAY ADVECT A BIT FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY AM.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... AS OF 430 PM MON...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE  
CURRENTLY IS BISECTING ENC FROM ROUGHLY PLYMOUTH TO CEDAR  
ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH WITH  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TO THE EAST, EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS  
BRINGING MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND  
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES ALONG THE OBX. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS  
PATTERN EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOW  
STRATUS ADVECTING INLAND TO NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH  
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT, A RATHER ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL  
PUSH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA  
WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. BEST  
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND NOT  
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP ACROSS ENC TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE  
LOW TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 445 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA  
TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG EASTERN SECTIONS  
GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LARGE SPREAD IN  
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS LIMITING  
HIGHS ACROSS THE OBX AROUND 60S WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS THAT  
WILL SEE GREATER SUNSHINE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 425 AM MON...LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY  
MIDWEEK, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE (ORIGINATING FROM ENERGY  
BREAKING OFF THE FIRST LOW) STALLS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS  
SETS UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEK  
WITH THE CAROLINAS UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF  
OF THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START THE  
WEEK TREND TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN  
CONUS LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP PULL A SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM THE  
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH PWATS OVER  
THE CAROLINAS RISING TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. CHANCES OF  
RAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. STILL A  
WIDESPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING INSTABILITY WITH FROPA SO  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS LEFT IN THE GRIDS, HOWEVER MODELS  
ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SOLUTION WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ONCE THE  
FRONT REACHED THE COAST. OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LINGER  
BUT THUNDER SHOULD FADE AWAY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES  
OFFSHORE.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AS CONSIDERABLY DRIER  
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY'S HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND STRUGGLING TO TOUCH 70 IN  
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.  
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS WELL, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS ON ITS  
EVOLUTION ARE MURKY ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD A WETTER  
SOLUTION SO POPS WERE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TO CHANCE OF RAIN IN  
THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 545 AM TUE...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF  
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS DUE TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS INVADING FROM THE  
NORTH CURRENTLY IMPACTING NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES. IT IS LIKELY  
THAT THE SCT DECK OF STRATUS WILL REACH SOUTHERN TAF SITES  
HOWEVER THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN  
DENSE ENOUGH TO BRING CATS TO IFR FOR THOSE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,  
BUT TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED THIS CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
POSSIBILITY. NERLY WINDS AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS IS  
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT WITH SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE,  
NERLY WINDS BUILD TO 5 TO 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS  
DEVELOPING MID MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 430 AM MON...FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS THURS LIKELY BRINGING IN PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH SUB-VFR  
CATS POSSIBLE. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CATS TO END THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 450 PM MON...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY BISECTING  
THE WATERS FROM APPROX CEDAR ISLAND TO NEAR PLYMOUTH. E/NE FLOW  
AROUND 10-15 KT CURRENTLY EAST OF THE TOUGH AND W/NW FLOW TO THE  
WEST WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH  
CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND SURGING  
TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO UP TO AROUND 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING  
UP TO 5-8 FT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. WINDS  
AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE  
ISSUED A SCA FOR ALL WATERS BUT THE INLAND RIVERS.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 440 AM SUN...SEAS BUILD BACK QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH  
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT  
10-15 KT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. FROM HERE, PERSISTENT  
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL  
WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE COAST FOR  
A FEW DAYS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER  
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE MAIN CONCERN IS SEAS BUILDING  
ABOVE 6 FEET WITH THE STEADY NORTHERLY FETCH. SCA CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE MID WEEK BEFORE LAYING DOWN TO END THE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ131-  
230-231.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...SK/TL  
SHORT TERM...SK  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...SK/TL/CEB  
MARINE...SK/CEB  
 
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