396  
FXUS62 KMHX 152201  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
601 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY TUESDAY  
NIGHT. TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO WILL BRING ROUGH MARINE  
CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE WATERS NEXT WEEK BUT  
LITTLE OTHER DIRECT IMPACTS TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FALL-LIKE  
WEATHER FILTERS IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY  
AFTER SUNSET. AS DIURNAL CLOUDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING,  
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH  
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND  
OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY UNIFORM  
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, RANGING  
FROM 69 WELL INLAND TO 74 DEGREES BEACHES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 PM SUNDAY...A CARBON COPY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS  
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AS A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE NC  
COAST. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE  
OF DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS MONDAY WITH LOWER 90S INLAND AND  
MID/UPPER 80S BEACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE WORK WEEK WILL START OFF WITH A  
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND UPPER  
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES, AND TC HUMBERTO  
CENTERED EAST OF JACKSONVILLE, FL. MEANWHILE, TC HUMBERTO IS  
EXPECTED TO MAKE AN ENE TURN WELL EAST OF THE GA/SC COAST.  
 
TUESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO  
SLOWLY TRACK ENE WELL TO THE SOUTH.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE HUMBERTO  
CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING BREEZY  
NORTHEAST WINDS AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL GIVE US  
A FIRST HINT OF FALL. HIGHS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 70S AREA  
WIDE. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID/UPR 50S INTERIOR TO  
60S ON THE BEACHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR BEACH EROSION AND  
PERHAPS SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES FOR PRONE AREAS OF THE  
OBX DUE TO THE PROLONGED GUSTY NE WINDS AND HIGH SURF.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NERLY GRADIENT BEGIN TO RELAX BY THE  
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA BRINGING  
LIGHTER WINDS AND A MODERATING AIRMASS WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO NEAR  
CLIMO IN THE 80S, WITH LOWS INTO THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY /...  
AS OF 600 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING, THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  
5-7Z IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL  
COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO  
MVFR BY 14Z BUT SUB VFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY  
AFTERNOON AS THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE.  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.  
 
LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...  
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF  
THE LONG TERM, THOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY  
MORNING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE  
WITH SOME ISO SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
LATE TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HUMBERTO PASSING WELL  
OFFSHORE BRINGING TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND GUSTY NORTH  
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LIMITED FOG THREAT WITH DRY AIR MASS IN  
PLACE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...  
AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. LATEST  
WAVEWATCH, SWAN AND ECMWF WAVE MODELS SHOW THE BEGINNING OF THE  
SE SWELL FROM HUMBERTO ARRIVING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL  
WATERS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER FOR THE WATERS  
SOUTH OF HATTERAS STARTING AT 16Z MONDAY, AND FOR THE WATERS  
FROM OREGON INLET TO HATTERAS BEGINNING AT 00Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT,  
WINDS SHOULD BE E/NE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS RUNNING 4-5  
FEET WITH 8-10 SECOND SWELLS. WINDS CONTINUE E/NE 5-15 KNOTS  
MONDAY, BUT SEAS EDGE UP TO 6 FEET OR BETTER BY MIDDAY MONDAY.  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 350 PM SUN...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
LONG TERM WITH GUSTY NERLY WINDS, LARGE SEAS AND AND DANGEROUS  
SURF CONDITIONS AS COMBINED SWELLS FROM TC HUMBERTO AND PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND HUMBERTO WELL  
OFFSHORE IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FORM THE NORTH THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND TC HUMBERTO CONTINUING TO TRACK ENE  
WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN  
ON TUE, PEAKING ON WED AROUND 20-30 KT, THEN ONLY SLOWLY  
DIMINISH ON THU, BECOMING LIGHTER ON FRI IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE.  
SWELL FROM HUMBERTO WILL PEAK AROUND 8-11 FT WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY, THE BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY, THOUGH REMAIN  
ABOVE 6 FT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-  
196-199-203>205.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
AMZ154-156-158.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
AMZ152.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC  
SHORT TERM...CTC  
LONG TERM...SK/TL  
AVIATION...JME/TL  
MARINE...JME/CTC/TL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page