561
FXUS62 KMHX 132352
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
752 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ENC
WATERS.
UPDATED FOR 14/00Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
2) WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF NC
DURING PEAK HEATING. WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE, THERE
SHOULD BE A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED, DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS. THE RISK IS
CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING, BUT SHOULD THIS
OCCUR, A SHORT-LIVED RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THANKS TO ELEVATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
(~30KT) AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE UP TO 1500J/KG).
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ISN'T ALL THAT EXCITED ABOUT THIS
POTENTIAL, AND THIS LIKELY SPEAKS TO THE CONDITIONALITY OF THE
THREAT. THIS RISK WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST BY SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. THIS WEEK. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW FORECASTING
500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 600DM WITH THIS RIDGE, THE STRENGTH OF
WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMALLY, THIS
WOULD SPELL ANOMALOUS HEAT FOR ENC. HOWEVER, A POCKET OF
"COOLER" THICKNESSES IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CAROLINAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY, THOSE
COOLER THICKNESSES MAY SHIELD ENC FROM THE ANOMALOUS HEAT THAT
OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE. THAT POCKET OF LOWER
THICKNESSES MAY BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BY THEN. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIFFER ON
WHEN/IF THIS WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SLIGHTLY DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT MAY LIMIT THE RISK OF
LOW CIGS AND VIS. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS, RECENT RAINFALL (FOR
SOME), AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL ALLOW PERIODS
OF REDUCED VIS IN MIFG, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR COVG TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FCST ATTM.
ANOTHER RISK OF SCT TSRA IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH ENC. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG,
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OF 40KT+. THIS RISK IS CONTINGENT ON
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN FCST ATTM AS COVERG MAY BE QUITE ISOLATED
IN NATURE, AND BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE TAF SITES. A NERLY WIND
SHIFT, AND A BUMP UP IN WINDS, IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MON.
OUTLOOK (MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI): HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH SHOULD ALSO KEEP A LID ON PRECIP THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY, AND LAYING DOWN TO
5-10KT. NORTHERLY WINDS THEN QUICKLY BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 25KT
WINDS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY SURGE OF WIND, AND
MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OUTLOOK: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAY DOWN BELOW 25KT, BUT ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONTRA FLOW AGAINST THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. FOR THE NEAR-SHORE COASTAL WATERS, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK DEPENDING
ON HOW LONG THE ELEVATED SEAS LAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ131-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM
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