802
FXUS62 KMHX 192058
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD CLOSER TO EASTERN NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM TUES...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE LOW WELL OFFSHORE
IS STRENGTHENING. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY LIFT AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND NW
WINDS START MIXING DOWN AND ERODING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AWAY
PLUS, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE REGION AS CAA START
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S INLAND, AND THE LOW TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM TUES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST, WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND THE SUN WILL FINALLY COME
OUT. LOCAL LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS STUDY IS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S/LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 240 AM TUE...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/LOW 60S. COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU MORNING
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...STALLS NEAR THE AREA SAT WITH LOW PRES MOVING ALONG IT
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, FINALLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
SUN MORNING. MDLS CONT TO HAVE SLIGHT TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SYSTEMS, BUT TRENDS NOW SHOW THE SYSTEM
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS
INLAND LATE SAT, AND ALL AREAS SAT NIGHT, TO LIKELY. FRI LOOKS
LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH WSW WINDS, COULD SEE HIGHS 65-70 DEG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP
POP IN FOR FIRST PART OF SUN FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH GLOBAL MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND DRY WEATHER. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS 55-60 DEG
THROUGH MON AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 60S ON TUE.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
AS OF 240 PM TUES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CEILINGS FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR
LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AS PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE HAD VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, HOURLY GUIDANCE LIKE THE
LAMP/HRRR SUGGEST THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW FOLLOWED THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MIXING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG AND SHOULD
HELP TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT LOW CEILINGS COULD FORM ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG,
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS REMAIN DECOUPLED. AFTER 13Z WED DRIER AIR
TAKES HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ARE AREA WITH PRED
VFR EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUE...EXPECT PRED VFR INTO FRI THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA,
WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. PRED VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 345 PM TUES...THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
N/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 4-8 FT WITH THE HIGHEST
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP BELOW 6 FT BRIEFLY, BEFORE SEAS BUILD
BACK TO 4-6 FT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. NW
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE 15-25 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS IN EFFECT
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS, WHILE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGIN
LATE TONIGHT AND PAMLICO SOUND STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUE...BREEZY NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT THU MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR
LESS BY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL TEMPORARILY
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT LATE THU, THEN BUILDING BACK TO 4-7 FT LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS W/SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ON SAT EXPECT MAINLY
WSW/SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AS FRONT INITIALLY TO THE S BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK N. A PERIOD OF STRONG SW WINDS 20-30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NW 10-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUN. SEAS
WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT SAT, BUILDING TO 5-8 FT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/BM
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