641
FXUS62 KMHX 290005
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
805 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE POP UP THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED THIS TREND WITH THE EVENING UPDATE BY LOWERING POPS
SOME AS WELL AS BLENDING IN SOME FRESHER GUIDANCE INTO QPF GRIDS
TO SHOW THE SPOTTIER COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2.) MORE RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE: ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET INTO TONIGHT. LOW END SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FOR THE REST OF TODAY, A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE OUR FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT WAVE. ON WEDNESDAY,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, GUIDED BY A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH MORE MEAGER RAIN
CHANCES AND MAY KEEP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY TILL AFTERNOON
OR LATER. IN A SIMILAR THEME, INSTABILITY DRIVING ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY WELL BELOW 500J/KG UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD REALIZE
MORE OF THE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH EASTERN
AREAS MORE TOWARDS SUNSET.
FOLLOWING IN ITS FOOTSTEPS, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
SC/GA COAST ON THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW IT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND
OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION OR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. POPS GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE REGIME WHICH IS LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TURNING ATTENTION TO THE WEEKEND, OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO TRY AND EAT INTO THE
PERSISTING DROUGHT OVER THE AREA WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WORKS ITS WAY
OVER EASTERN NC. AS THIS IS HAPPENING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL WORK TO DEEPEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SUPPORTING WAVE OUT OF
TEXAS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ELONGATE INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE COASTAL LOW. THE MERGED SYSTEMS WILL
PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BUT
NOT BEFORE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA HAVING A 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF
RAINFALL.
AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED, CURRENTLY MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFFSHORE BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD HELP SUSTAIN ANY
CONVECTION THAT INITIATES. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
REGARDING HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL GET AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS
THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLED FOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR ENC AS THE LOW LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. OCCASIONAL
MID AND HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE, AND GENERALLY 4-5 MILES MVFR LEVEL FOG IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS EVENING'S MODEL SUITE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL
AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCHC (GENERALLY LESS THAN
25% CHANCE) OF THIS HAPPENING WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS ABOUT WHERE
FOG MAY DEVELOP. HAVE CONVERTED THE PREVAILING MVFR VIS LINES TO
6SM MIFG WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS (NOW INCLUDING EWN
AS WELL, WHICH WAS OMITTED IN 18Z TAFS). VFR FLIGHT CATS RETURN
SOON AFTER SUNRISE, BUT CIGS WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR IS POSSIBLE. HAVE INTRODUCED SCT IFR
DECKS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT UNTIL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT OFF THE COAST, AND THEN VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5-15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND A RETURN TO
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS TO 9Z WEDNESDAY FOR SEAS OF 6 FEET. THIS
IS MAINLY FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF THE 20 NM ZONE AS AREAS CLOSER TO
SHORE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE 6FT THRESHOLD.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA, BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE LOW END SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS S OF OREGON INLET REDEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RTE
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RTE
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