956  
FXUS62 KMHX 140012  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
812 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND  
DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO THE FRONTS DISSIPATION,  
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH  
MONDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105  
DEGREES RETURN STARTING TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT  
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...  
 
- LOWER RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT  
 
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH  
JUST WEST OF HWY 17, WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE  
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SINCE  
WANED WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND THE DIURNAL INCREASE  
IN INHIBITION. UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE, THE RISK OF  
THUNDERSTORMS WON'T COMPLETELY BE ZERO. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE  
ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS, I DECIDED TO  
LOWER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE  
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES HAVEN'T FALLEN AS QUICKLY AS  
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND I INCREASE  
TEMPS/LOWS TONIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST  
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS QUICKLY DISSIPATE ACROSS  
THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER SUNSET, AND HAVE KEPT A MAINLY DRY FCST  
OVERNIGHT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. CAN'T RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST AND OBX AS GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT  
ACTIVITY STICKING AROUND THESE AREAS. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR  
TONIGHT WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST AS RECENT GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS WE WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 17 WITH  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE EAST OF HWY 17. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO AT LEAST A THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR  
WESTERN ZONES AND HAVE SINCE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE  
FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS THIS EVENING HOWEVER AS THIS  
IS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT. REGARDLESS, WITH HREF PROBS OF  
20-40% ACROSS PORTIONS OF MARTIN, PITT, GREENE, AND LENOIR  
COUNTY FOR VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 5 MILES FELT BEST CHANCE  
FOR FOG WOULD BE HERE. WARM AND VERY MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT  
WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM SAT...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE COASTAL  
PLAIN ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN.  
HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING, COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS  
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE REDUCED. AS A  
RESULT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE A BIT WARMER ON SUNDAY  
WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S  
ACROSS ENC. WITH DEWPOINTS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND REMAINING IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY  
INCREASE TO 102-108F RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD  
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED IF HEAT ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED IN COMING UPDATES  
FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 4 AM SAT...  
 
- MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES ARE  
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY.  
SOME RELIEF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
-WET AGAIN FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN  
TO RAMP UP ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
EXTREME HEAT WILL BECOME THE BIGGEST THREAT IN THE FORECAST.  
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER  
80S TO LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PUSH OR  
EXCEED 105 DEGREES EACH DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE EXTREME  
COASTAL AREAS. AT THIS POINT, TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST  
DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES WHICH IS  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.  
 
MORE CERTAINTY FOR THE BACK END OF THE WEEK THAN LAST NIGHT AT  
THIS TIME AS SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO SETTLE ON A FRONT MOVING  
INTO EASTERN NC AND STALLING FOR THE BACK END OF THE WEEK AND  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PW VALUES RETURN TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ON  
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE  
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COMBINATION  
OF STILL HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE YIELDS  
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. SHEAR HOWEVER  
WILL BE LACKING SO ANY THUNDER WILL BE INSTABILITY DRIVEN. AFTER  
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO REDUCE CAPE VALUES SOME  
AND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. THEREFORE ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE  
THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME  
WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...  
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...  
 
- BR AND MVFR VIS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (40-60% CHANCE)  
 
- SCT TSRA RISK RETURNS ON SUNDAY  
 
EARLIER TSRA HAVE WEAKENED, AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER  
OUT, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS TIME.  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, I EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.  
HOWEVER, A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, AND  
UNTIL THAT MOVES OFFSHORE, I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TSRA.  
THE CHANCE OF TSRA REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IS LOW (10-20%  
CHANCE). AS SKIES CLEAR, A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VIS MAY DEVELOP DUE  
TO BR, AND I'VE ADDED THIS TO THE TAF SITES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS  
HIGHEST. DENSE, IMPACTFUL FG, IS NOT EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY, SCT  
TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BUBBLE UP IN THE AFTERNOON,  
MAINLY TIED TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. I LEFT TSRA OUT OF THE  
TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND CONFIDENCE CONCERNS.  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 4 AM SAT...  
 
A DRIER PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE AVIATION LONG TERM WITH  
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD BE WITH  
OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10  
KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON  
WEDNESDAY AND ALONG WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR PERIODS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...  
 
- IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS  
 
BASED ON RECENT BUOY OBS, 4-5FT SEAS ARE HOLDING ON A BIT  
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED, AND I'VE ADJUSTED THE SEAS FORECAST FOR  
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THIS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS OVERNIGHT, BUT  
THE RISK HAS BEEN LOWERED.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE ENDED THE ONGOING SCA'S THIS  
AFTERNOON AS AMBIENT WINDS HAVE EASED AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW  
6 FEET ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL  
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SW-W'RLY SUNDAY  
WHILE EASING SLIGHTLY, CLOSER TO 5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL CHANGE  
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN RATHER BENIGN BOATING  
CONDITIONS. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS CONTINUED ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS  
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS  
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER THE  
WATERS.  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 4 AM SAT...  
 
FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM FOR MARINE CONDITIONS WITH  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. FOR THE  
COASTAL WATERS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 3-4 FEET THROUGH MUCH  
OF THE LONG TERM BEFORE RISING TO 5 FEET NEAR THE END OF THE  
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-  
199-204-205.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RM/RCF  
SHORT TERM...RCF  
LONG TERM...RTE  
AVIATION...RTE/RM  
MARINE...RTE/RM/RCF  
 
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