350
FXUS62 KMHX 080955
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
AFTERNOONS AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE COAST TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY
CONDITIONS TO DAY WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF FORCING,
HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE
BECOMES SUPPRESSED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PUSHES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO EACH DAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES THROUGH
PEAK HEATING, BUT WILL ALSO DEPEND OF TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIMITED SHEAR, THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHEAR DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN WARMING IN TO THE
MID 90S NEXT WEEK. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. THE PROBABILITIES FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK INCREASE
TO AROUND 50-80% MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST PROBS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES TO BE APPENDED TO THE KEWN TAF DUE TO AN
ONGOING FAA COMMS ISSUE THAT IS IMPACTING DISSEMINATION OF THE
OBSERVATION INFORMATION. HOWEVER, TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ISSUED WHILE THE ISSUE IS TROUBLESHOOTED. NKT IS THE CLOSEST
ASOS. EWN IS ABLE TO BE DIALED INTO TO RECEIVE METARS.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN RTES WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RTES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CONVECTION AT BAY. HOWEVER,
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING.
MARINE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING
S TO SW WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS TEMPS WARM INLAND BRINGING A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENTS BETWEEN
THE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAMLICO, CROATAN/ROANOKE
SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT.
MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, THEN CHANCES
INCREASE TONIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ROTATES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
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