965  
FXUS62 KMHX 302141  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
541 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO  
EASTERN NC INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF IAN  
ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST  
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...PLEASE SEE HLSMHX FOR FULL IMPACT DETAILS  
FROM IAN.  
 
IAN RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, AND  
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST OF  
IAN, A MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT IS MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND INLAND  
ACROSS ENC, AND IS EVIDENCED BY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON  
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SFC, A MARINE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT  
CONTINUES TO LIFT STEADILY NORTH THROUGH ENC, WITH 60S DEWPOINTS  
NORTH OF IT AND LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH.  
 
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH AN  
ADDITIONAL 1-3" EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY, THIS IS  
MAINLY IMPACTING OUR FAR INLAND COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. IN THE WARM  
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, THE PRECIP IS MORE BANDED IN NATURE,  
WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES STILL BEING SEEN ON RADAR  
IMAGERY. THOSE MORE DISCRETE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST  
CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND NO CHANGES  
ARE PLANNED TO THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH. THAT SAID, THE OVERALL  
TORNADO THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AS THE DRYSLOT BEGINS TO  
WIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST, LIMITING THE RISK OF DEEPER CONVECTION.  
ADDITIONALLY, 0-1KM SRH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
BECOMES A BIT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  
 
LASTLY, THE MORE PERSISTENT, AND WIDESPREAD, AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AWAY FROM ENC, WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH  
FLOODING GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WELL. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, WE  
HAVE BEGUN TO TRIM BACK THE FLOOD WATCH, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO  
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE THREAT DECREASES. THE SAME HOLDS FOR THE  
TORNADO WATCH, AND THIS WILL BE TRIMMED BACK FOR AREAS WHERE THE  
THREAT HAS DECREASED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY, A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED  
CONFLUENT BOUNDARY EAST OF IAN MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO  
OF CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF  
ENC. I TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT HELD  
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF  
CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. THE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY  
WILL SHIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA, SO IT APPEARS THAT THE RISK OF  
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LOW. GIVEN RESIDUAL SHEAR  
IN PLACE, THOUGH, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ISN'T ZERO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 5 PM FRI...THE REMNANT LOW RELATED TO TC IAN MAY LINGER  
AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS  
IN BY MIDWEEK, FOR A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE  
REMNANTS OF IAN WILL LINGER, BUT IT COULD CONTINUE TO BE  
UNSETTLED WITH REMNANTS OF IAN LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST OR MID  
ATLANTIC. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THE REMNANT  
CUTOFF LOW FROM IAN WILL MERGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY  
INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A BROAD COASTAL LOW  
OFF THE NC/VA COASTLINE. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY FOR  
SPECIFICS, IMPACTS FROM SUCH A COASTAL LOW WOULD RESULT IN  
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE OBX AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL  
CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL  
FEATURE OUT TO SEA, BRINGING IN A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...IFR PREVAILS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF  
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, BUT  
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IAN WILL  
CONTINUE TO BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE  
EVENING BEFORE RAINFALL COVERAGE DECREASES. GUSTY STRONG NE  
WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOME GUSTY S TO SE BEHIND THE WARM  
FRONT, THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AMPLE  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY, WITH MVFR  
CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS OF CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE  
LATE.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 325 AM FRI...RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY. A COASTAL LOW  
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A SURGE OF NRLY WINDS  
WITH POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ALONG THE OBX COASTLINE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE ENC COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG EAST TO  
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10-15 FT HAVE BEEN  
OBSERVED IN VERY ROUGH WINDSWELL, WHICH WILL BE REPLACED BY  
MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH FOR ALL WATERS AND DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL  
STORM FORCE AS IAN WEAKENS INLAND TO OUR WEST. SEAS WILL  
SUBSIDE TO 7-10 FT LATE.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 5 PM FRIDAY...SUNDAY, WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO  
TURN BACK NNE AT 10-15 KTS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. AT THE MOMENT,  
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO FORECAST WHERE THE REMNANTS OF  
IAN MAY END UP. HOW THAT UNFOLDS WILL IMPACT WHETHER OR NOT A  
COASTAL LOW DECIDES TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING POOR MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. CURRENTLY, FORECAST MODELS ARE  
SUGGESTING THIS, BUT IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT ENDS UP  
HAPPENING WITH IAN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF  
EASTERN NC, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES.  
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE GREATEST RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING  
FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF  
ENC AS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE. DRY AIR  
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, AS WELL AS THE BETTER LIFT MOVING AWAY  
FROM THE AREA, SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN  
AND FLOODING BY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. UNTIL  
THEN, THE THREAT OF FLASH, AND RIVER, FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.  
PLEASE SEE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
AS OF 5 PM FRI...THE HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURRED MIDDAY IS STILL  
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER REACHES OF THE TIDAL CREEKS ALONG  
THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WINDS HAVE TURNED E TO SE ACROSS  
COASTAL AREAS, WHICH IS CONTINUING TO PILE WATER UP ON THE  
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AND UP THE PAMLICO AND, TO  
A LESSER EXTENT, NEUSE RIVERS. MINOR TO MODERATE STORM SURGE  
INUNDATION REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, AND THE STORM  
SURGE WATCH/WARNING CONFIGURATION REMAINS UNCHANGED.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-  
193>196-198-199-203>205.  
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-  
090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ045>047.  
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR NCZ080-081-094-195-196-199-203>205.  
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR NCZ094-194.  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-  
196-199-203>205.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ195-196-199-  
203>205.  
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-  
230-231.  

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RM  
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...CB/ML  
AVIATION...CB/ML  
MARINE...RM/JME/CB/ML  
HYDROLOGY...MHX  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX  
 
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