185  
FXUS62 KMHX 161316  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
916 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DIFFUSE FRONT BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL  
RETREAT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN, THE AREA WILL BE  
BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING TROUGH ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS,  
AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 915 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED UP INIT TEMPS A BIT BUT  
OTHERWISE NO CHANGE WITH HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS CONT WITH HEAT  
ADVRY ALL AREAS. WDLY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
INLAND THIS AFTN AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND WITH GOOD INSTAB IN  
PLACE.  
 
PREV DISC...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS  
THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK DIFFUSE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER  
WILL LIFT NORTH/DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH  
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AND IF ANYTHING IT WILL BE A TOUCH  
WARMER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE SECTIONS WHERE WINDS WILL NO LONGER  
BE ONSHORE. HIGH EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND  
LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK  
AROUND 105-110 THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT  
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  
 
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE PEAKING AROUND  
3000-3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE  
COLUMN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIATION  
PRIMARILY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, BUT COULD BE ENHANCED SOME  
LATE AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING  
OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG GIVEN  
THE INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10-15 KT AND MOST  
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE  
EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
RIDGING OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA COULD KEEP ISOLATED  
SHOWERS OR STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME  
MODELS SHOWING A FEW STORMS CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT, MOST ARE  
DRY AND WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SULTRY  
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMER SURFACE PATTERN WILL  
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT THIS WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AS  
UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF HOT AND HUMID AIR ACROSS  
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE THU  
INTO FRI AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MOVE THROUGH THE MID  
ATLANTIC.  
 
WEDNESDAY...HOT AND VERY HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A  
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE REGIME. EASTERN NC  
WILL REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A WEAK  
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE AOA 20C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  
THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX  
VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGING  
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, SO WILL  
CONTINUE 20-30% POPS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRECIP.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TC BARRY ARE PROGGED TO  
BECOME ABSORBED INTO MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AS IT LIFTS INTO THE  
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION  
OPENING INTO A WAVE AND PUSHING ACROSS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY  
WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG A  
FRONT. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN  
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW THU/THU NIGHT AND  
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN  
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL  
CONTINUE 40% POPS BOTH DAYS. CONTINUED HOT AND VERY HUMID WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105  
DEGREES. SULTRY LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED HOT AND VERY HUMID. HIGHS  
IN THE MID 90S INLAND/LOW 90S COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER  
90S INLAND SAT AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW  
20S C. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND AROUND 105 DEGREES MON. SCATTERED  
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS  
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SULTRY MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 730 AM TUESDAY...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL  
BURN OFF BEFORE 13Z. PRED VFR EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOL TO  
SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE  
SEA BREEZE AS IT MIGRATES INLAND, BUT COULD BE ENHANCED BY WEAK  
MID- LEVEL ENERGY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE IS  
SHOWING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE FOG  
DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST WITH  
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SO CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THIS PERIOD  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND,  
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THU  
AND FRI. PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH  
MORNING, ESP. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 915 AM TUESDAY...CURRENT CONDITIONS ABOUT AS TRANQUIL AS  
WILL SEE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. WINDS  
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATER TODAY BUT REMAIN MAINLY AOB 15 KTS.  
 
PREV DISC... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH A  
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIFT  
NORTH/DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS  
MORNING BECOMING S AROUND 10-15 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1-2 FT TODAY AND BUILD TO 2-3 FT  
TONIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING  
MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SW FLOW 15-20 KT DEVELOPING LATE  
WED AND PERSISTING INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD  
FROM 2-3 FT WED TO 3-4 FT WED NIGHT AND 3-5 FT FRI AND FRI  
NIGHT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN GUSTS TO 25  
KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER  
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARINE ZONES THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.  
THE LATEST NWPS AND WW3 WAVE MODELS WERE FORECASTING SEAS TO 5  
FT, BUT JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WOULD RESULT IN  
SEAS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-  
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RF/SK  
SHORT TERM...SK  
LONG TERM...JME  
AVIATION...JME/SK  
MARINE...RF/JME/SK  
 
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