690
FXUS62 KMHX 261827
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
227 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THURSDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH TODAY, KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM RISK LOW.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW TRAVELS ALONG
STALLED FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND IMPROVED DYNAMICS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS SAT LEADS TO INCREASED RISK OF STRONGER
STORMS FRI.
3) HEAT INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF
ENC THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG IT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEABREEZE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT THE
SCHC POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE NE'RN ZONES WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. WHILE THE THREAT FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
STORM IS LOW IT IS NON-ZERO. WHILE THE FRONT HAS REMAINED TO
THE SOUTH TODAY, FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE ONSHORE
WITH SE'RLY BREEZE NOTED ACROSS ENC THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM S-N.
HIGHS HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN PLACES AS WELL,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE SE AND RIDES NE'WARDS ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LIFTING NORTHWARDS TONIGHT ACROSS
ENC. GREATEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WOULD BE EAST OF HWY 17 AND ALONG THE OBX. WITH CLOUDCOVER
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD ENC TONIGHT, LOWS GET INTO THE LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NE'WARDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU, PUSHING THE BOUNDARY NORTH
TOWARD, AND PERHAPS OVER, THE ENC COAST, PROVIDING A BETTER
FOCAL POINT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF
A SECOND FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA BY SAT. OUT OF ALL THE
DAYS, THURS LOOKS TO HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE, THOUGH THIS WILL STILL BE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH POPS GENERALLY
AROUND 30-50% THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURS. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE OBX AND FAR EASTERN ZONES THURS
MORNING AND THEN PUSH INLAND AS THE DAY GOES ON. BIGGEST
QUESTION MARKS FOR TOMORROW WILL BE HOW FOCUSED ACTIVITY WILL BE
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. PWATS DO
CREEP BACK NORTH OF 1.75" AND LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 2" AS WE
APPROACH THE EVENING HOURS THURS, BUT CLOUD COVER MAY CAP MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG MAX AND WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE, ANY SHOWER OR TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY ORGANIZED. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
REMAINS AROUND THE AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI PROMOTING EVEN
GREATER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION.
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE, AND SUBTLY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER CANADA DIGS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
FRI, A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAINMAKER, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AS SUCH, SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
(LVL 1/5) OF SEVERE TSTORMS AND WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRI WHILE THE FA IS WARM SECTORED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OFFSHORE THEN BEING STALLED ALONG
OR NEAR THE APPMTS. RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONT
PUSHED BY THE DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
THE FA ON SAT. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS WELL AS RISING TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MID
90S/MID 70S SPLITS AND MAXAPPTS IN EXCESS OF 100DEG FROM TUES ONWARD
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
VFR FLIGHT CATS PERSIST ACROSS ENC THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
DIURNAL CU AND STEADY E TO SE'RLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA. WEAK
SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY ALLOWING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY BY THIS EVENING. CONTINUED VFR
FLIGHT CATS ARE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT TO START OUT. HOWEVER AS
WE GET FURTHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH GRADUALLY LIFTS N'WARDS TOWARD THE COAST AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NWARD FROM GA. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THIS
WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE FA OVER COASTAL ZONES,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES 06Z ONWARDS THU FROM HWY 17 EAST. THIS
COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE OBX AND EASTERN MOST TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT
INHERITED VCSH MENTION AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR OAJ AND
EWN IN THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH IN THIS ACTIVITY BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. DOES LOOK LIKE WE GET A BRIEF
BREAK DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OBX TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK NWARD AND STALL AROUND THE
AREA THURS WITH THE FRONT REMAINING AROUND THE AREA ON FRI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BUT AS WE
GET INTO FRIDAY, A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH
FRI AND SAT. SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE IN NATURE FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES AT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SUN AND
BEYOND RESULTING IN MORE BENIGN FLYING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
LIGHT SE'RLY WINDS AT 5-15 KTS ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 2-4 FT SEAS NOTED ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL VEER TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE S-SW'RLY BUT REMAINS AT 5-15 KNOTS
WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT AS WELL.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE'WARDS
DRAGGING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH N'WARDS
ACROSS OUR WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ELEVATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SW'RLY WINDS DO
INCREASE SOME THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO 10-20 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FORECAST, PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. HOWEVER, BOTH HREF, AND NBM PROBS
FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20%,
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND OUTER WATERS. SO WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT
GUSTS TO OR NEAR 25 KTS THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT GUSTS
SHOULD BE INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MARINE HEADLINES
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK: COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ACTS TO WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT NEARS THE AREA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR WEAKENING WINDS BACK DOWN TO 5-15 KTS. SEAS
MAINTAIN HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 2-4 FT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
WELL. ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRI INTO SAT
WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. AS WE GET INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS AND LOWER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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