201
FXUS62 KMHX 221103
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 22/12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STALLED FRONT TO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
2) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY NEXT WEEK WITH A
DAILY THUNDERSTORM RISK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANALYSIS OF WINDS AND DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA, SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BUT NORTH OF THE
NEUSE. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER ARE
STILL STALLED TO THE NORTH AND WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY
BE DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN NC BLOCKING THE PRECIP
FROM FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT, IN ADDITION TO A
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING REMOVING THE FUEL FOR DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, PRECIP WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO THE NE WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE BRINGS
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION, LOW STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LOWER, BRINGING CHANCES OF DENSE FOG TO
INLAND LOCALES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOW PROBS
ELECTED TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE FCST, BUT IT WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THUNDER CHANCES PICK UP
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, BUT REMAIN LOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AS E/NE WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS MORE STABLE. WITH THE FRONT SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE
CRYSTAL COAST TOMORROW, THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD INITIATE, QUICKLY
COLLIDING WITH THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A
LOCALLY ENHANCED REGION OF CONVECTION, WITH HIGHER COVERAGE AND
QPF TOTALS EXPECTED. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT I
EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TO WANE, MUCH LIKE
WE ARE SEEING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST RIGHT NOW. SATURDAY THE
FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK NORTH, OVERLAPPING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FOCUSED
ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE SATURDAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT POINTS TOWARDS A REDUCED
RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. AT LARGE, THIS SHOULD ALSO
LEAD TO A REDUCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY AS STEEPENING LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT SOME WATER-
LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF 40- 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND MINOR
TREE DAMAGE. THIS MAY ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE RIGHT ALONG
WHEREVER THE FRONT SETS UP EACH DAY, AS THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT
WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND "BEST" SHEAR.
PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75"-2.00" WITHIN A WEAKLY-STEERED
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE RECENT
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND ONGOING DROUGHT SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET
ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER, IF HEAVY RAIN TRAINS OVER ANY ONE
AREA, ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS, THEN A LOW-END FLOODING RISK
COULD MATERIALIZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ONCE THIS WEEKEND'S FRONT LIFTS NORTH, ENC WILL
GET BACK INTO A TYPICAL LATE-SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
SEABREEZE-DRIVEN. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO,
THERE SHOULD BE A DAILY RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS POTENTIAL IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY BOTH MACHINE LEARNING AND ANALOG GUIDANCE.
NEAR-CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND, AND LOW TO MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MEMORIAL DAY, AN ALL-DAY WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. IT WILL BE
MORE UNSETTLED THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW WEEKS,
THOUGH.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS SETTLING SOUTH INTO ENC, APPROACHING
THE CRYSTAL COAST. NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST EARLY THIS
MORNING, AS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN, BUT MAY CONT
TO SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AROUND COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS ARE
DROPPING TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SOME DAYTIME HEATING HELPS RAISE CEILINGS TO MORE
MVFR LEVELS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK
TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER ENC. SO THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE END
TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS. ALONG AND NORTH OF WHEREVER THE FRONT
STALLS IS WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR, OR LOWER, CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE FRIDAY THERE IS A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A PROB30 FOR TSRA
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDER CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FRIDAY NIGHT, SUB-VFR
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, WITH FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE
RAINFALL TODAY AND HAVE CALM WINDS UNDER THE STALLED FRONT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF OCNL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
ON AND OFF SHRA WITH SOME THUNDER, ESP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING TIME FRAMES WITH THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVE EACH DAY
WITH WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO ENC TONIGHT,
WITH NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL AROUND THE CENTRAL WATERS, WITH
THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEING FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RIVERS/SOUNDS/COASTAL WATERS. A WEAKER GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF 25KT WINDS LOWER FOR THOSE WATERS. ALONG
THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT, A THERMAL GRADIENT OF SORTS IS
SETTING UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE GULF STREAM, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ
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