224
FXUS62 KMHX 192217
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
617 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 615 PM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST LATE TONIGHT, AND LIFT ALONG OR JUST OFF OF
THE NC COAST EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING POPS LATE, HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH RES MODELS, SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSTMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASED TO
LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING. EXPECT A
NON- DIURNAL TEMP CURVE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EARLY THEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SW WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 315 PM FRI...THE WEAK LOW WILL LIFT ALONG THE NC COAST
EARLY SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT BEST RAIN/ISO TSTM CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING WITH THE LOW, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 70S, WARMEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 4 AM FRI...CHANGE WILL COME ABRUPTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MUCH DRIER, COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD, SIGNALING
THE BEGINNING OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.
SUB-FREEZING 850 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY,
BRINING THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING AROUND 60 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE 30S FOR INLAND AREAS, AND FROST IS A CONCERN.
GENERALLY SETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE,
PRECLUDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK, BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN US RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
ALONG OR OFF OF THE NC COAST. CEILINGS LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MID SAT AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRI...PERIODS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY, PREVAILING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT AND
LIFT ALONG OR JUST OFF OF THE NC COAST EARLY SAT. A PERIOD OF
GUSTY SW WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS LIKELY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TONIGHT FOR
INCREASING SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. INCREASING S/SW WINDS TONIGHT,
15-25 KT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THE PAMLICO SOUND
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT, BUT
EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 25-35 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ISSUED SCA FOR THE INLAND RIVERS FOR THE SURGE. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4-8 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRI...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ130-131-135-150-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...JME/CQD/SGK
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...JME/CQD/CB
MARINE...JME/CQD/CB
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