441
FXUS62 KMHX 291912
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASED TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND SUNDAY AS STALLED
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY DISSIPATES.
2) INCREASING MID-LEVEL RIDGING NEXT WEEK CUTS DOWN ON RAIN
CHANCES BUT BRINGS A RETURN OF UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT THE AREA
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY ON THE
FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CURRENTLY
ALONG THE US 64 CORRIDOR. 12Z/29 KMHX SOUNDING HAS PW NEAR
RECORD VALUES FOR THE DAY AT 2.27" AND HAVE SEEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHERE STORMS HAVE TRAINED TO MOVED VERY SLOWLY
NECESSITATING A COUPLE OF FLOOD ADVISORIES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON BUT DON'T ANTICIPATED
STRONG STORMS WITH LIMITED SHEAR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPING MLCAPE AROUND 1000J/KG OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS PRECIP
ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SHOWING A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY TOMORROW WITH MLCAPE PEAKING AROUND 1500J/KG
BUT ALSO SHOWS DESCENT COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOIST SW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT, SO MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED KEEPING CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WANES NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG SEA AND SOUND BREEZES ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
WITH FORECAST HEAT INDICES CLIMBING ABOVE 105, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US70.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS RTES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST TERMINALS. THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
BRINGING AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND RTES. STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND
MID DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN MORE BENIGN FLYING CONDITIONS. ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG AREA SEA AND SOUND BREEZES.
MARINE
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY LESS
THAN 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 1-3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT.
OUTLOOK: LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE W ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS AND
LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS
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