909
FXUS62 KMHX 011100
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL DRY AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER ENC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COASTAL LOW FROMS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN LIGHT RAIN LIKELY. HIGH PRES BUILDS
BACK IN LATER MON INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH AM UPDATE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
AS LOW AS THE MID 30S IN PLACES, WITH PATCHY FROST ALL THE WAY
TO INTERIOR CARTERET COUNTY.
PREV DISC... AS OF 3 AM SAT...UPPER LOW DIGS SWARD FROM GREAT
LAKES, LEADING TO NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE TOP TWO
THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WHILE THE SFC HIGH OVER SECONUS SETTLES
OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL, A FAIRLY
SIMILAR DAY TO FRIDAY ON TAP TO START YOUR WEEKEND TEMP- WISE,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S, WITH SOME LOW 60S NRN OBX.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...PATCHY TO AREAS FROST ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE, AS HIGH WILL BE SETTLED OVERHEAD WITH CALM
WINDS AND SKC SKIES. AFTERNOON TD'S SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30S,
LEADING TO EFFICIENT COOLING OF TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID 30S
FOR FAVORED INTERIOR AREAS, AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SRN COAST
IN VICINITY OF THE CROATAN THROUGH SRN ONSLOW COUNTY. WILL HAVE
TO ENTERTAIN ANOTHER FROST ADV FOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 2 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT ENC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING A THREAT FOR PRECIP AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVERALL A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE
CONUS THIS COMING WEEK WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TRACKING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE FIRST TROUGH WITH A MUCH
DRIER PATTERN SETTING UP BEYOND THAT AT THE SURFACE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO GAIN A FURTHER CONSENSUS
ON THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST MINOR TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS. WE WILL START THE PERIOD
OUT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED FROM THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST S'WARDS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST TRENDS
SUGGESTS THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY MON NIGHT/TUE. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW
WILL BE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON SUN EVENTUALLY PUSHING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MON AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON TUE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL TRACK FURTHER
OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES AND NE'RLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUN EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE'WARDS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD TO ENC. GREATEST CHANCE
TO SEE PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF HWY 17 WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER
INLAND RESULTING IN LITTLE HELP TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.25-0.75" BETWEEN SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT WITH HIGH END
AMOUNTS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE IF LOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST AND HEAVIER RAINFALL SPREADS FURTHER INLAND. LOW THEN PULLS
AWAY FROM ENC MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BRINGING MUCH DRIER WEATHER
TO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUE.
HOWEVER, BREEZY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OBX ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST TUE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD START TO SUN
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY MAINLY EAST OF HWY 17 WED MORNING HOWEVER
WE WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUN AND AGAIN ON MON. HIGHS ARE
CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON TUE AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S SUN AND MON NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE OBX. THIS
WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FRO FROST TO PORTIONS OF ENC
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
WED NIGHT INTO THURS AND THEN YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES OFFSHORE ON
WED. A DRY COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURS INTO FRI. TEMPS REMAIN ABOUT AVG TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVG TO END THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...VFR SKC THROUGH TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONT DRY ATMS PROHIBITS
ANY FG/BR DEVELOPEMENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES...
-BENIGN FLYING WEATHER FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
-NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS ENC. AS WE GET INTO
SUN NIGHT AND MON, A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A
THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ENC AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BRING
LOWER CLOUDS AND VIS TO THE AREA. MORE BENIGN WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY TUE AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PULLS AWAY FROM ENC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...HAVE CANCELLED ALL SCA'S AS SEAS/WINDS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA. HIGH CONT BUILDING TOWARDS ENC TODAY WITH
LIGHT WRLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT. HIGH OVERHEAD THIS EVENING SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING NERLY BUT REMAINING
LIGHT, AND NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT OR SO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS OUR
WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST PULLS AWAY FROM ENC THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD 5-15 KT NE'RLY WINDS AND 2-4 FT
SEAS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. BY SUN EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TURNING WINDS TO A MORE E'RLY DIRECTION AT
15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20-30 KTS. WITH INCREASING WINDS,
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD OVERNIGHT SUN TO 3-5 FT AND THEN 4-6 FT ALONG
OUR COASTAL WATERS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS TO
OUR WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SUN NIGHT. LOW
THEN TRACKS NE'WARDS MON INTO TUE MORNING KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS
ELEVATED, BUT TURNING THEM TO A N TO NW DIRECTION WITH STRONG SCA TO
NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUE PUSHING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
FURTHER OUT TO SEA RESULTING IN EASING WINDS AND SEAS TUE EVENING
INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044-079-
090-091.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF
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