668
FXUS62 KMHX 240043
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
843 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS.
RECORD HIGHS FOR LATEWEEK ADDED IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE STORM THREAT HAS ENDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA.
2) BECOMING HOT AND HUMID AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED
OFFSHORE AND THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR ENC. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN WILL
SEE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH THE RETURN SWERLY FLOW, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM HEAT INDICES,
THOUGH MOST LIKELY REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADV THRESHOLDS, WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 100S EACH DAY EARLY TO LATE WEEK. BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED ON WED BEHIND THE FROPA, WHEN
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 80S OBX ZONES TO UPPER 80S
INLAND WITH LOWERED RH'S AS WELL. HEATING BACK UP THU INTO THE
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN SAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADDED CLIMATE SECTION BELOW TO
ADVERTISE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI AND THIS WEEKEND WHEN HEAT
INCREASES AGAIN IN THE SERLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED SAT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS RTES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REMAINING SHOWERS MAY
BRING OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL SEE
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE
PROBS FOR STRATUS OR FOG ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT IN REFS AND
HREF GUIDANCE, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT INLAND WITH SKIES
CLEARING AND CANNOT RULE OUT SHALLOW GROUND FOG GIVEN THE PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING WET SOILS. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDNESDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT N TO NE SHIFTING TO E TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
OUTLOOK (WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT): PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THU WITH HIGH PRESS OVER THE AREA. NEXT
PRECIP CHANCE ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING.
MARINE
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS ARE BECOMING NW TO N BEHIND THE
FRONT AND DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. THE POST FRONTAL NLY SURGE
AROUND 15-20 KT WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING, THEN DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 3-6 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 6-8 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
VERY LOW. HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS BUT
THEY CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): MODERATE N-NE WINDS WED, GRAD VEERING
BECOMING LIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU. S-SW WINDS RETURN THU NIGHT
INTO FRI THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT SAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/26 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 90/2011 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/2008 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 96/1948 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 100/1997 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/27 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 94/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 100/2010 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY100/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 06/28 (SUNDAY)
LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 99/1959 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 95/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1921 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 102/1959 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 97/2010 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 99/1978 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...SK/CEB
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB
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