364
FXUS62 KMHX 090702
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED ACROSS ALL WATERS BEYOND 20NM.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TC
ISAIAS OVERSPREADS THE CAROLINAS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST.
2) A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
3) COASTAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
2"+ PWATS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IS FORECAST TO GET PULLED
NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE
EAST OF THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING REMNANTS OF TC ISAIAS. AT THE
SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL TRUDGE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COASTLINE, LIKELY WITH A WEAK, NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT,
A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP, SUPPORTING INCREASING
WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WITH A SHIELD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
IT'S EXPECTED THAT THIS INITIAL SWATH OF PRECIP SHOULD SUPPORT
1-3" OF RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF ENC. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT, THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE BANDED AND
CONTAIN SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. IT'S THESE BANDS
THAT WILL POSE THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, AS WELL AS THE
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING. CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 4-6"+ ARE POSSIBLE IF THOSE BANDS MANAGE TO
REACH THE COAST. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE SCENARIOS, IT'S
UNCLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND, CONSEQUENTLY,
THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL GET.
RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM HAVE STABILIZED
FROM LAST NIGHT, STILL SUGGESTING A 20-30% OF SEEING MORE THAN
4" RAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE
NC24 CORRIDOR INCLUDING MOREHEAD CITY AND JACKSONVILLE. THE 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS ALSO STAYED CONSISTENT WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN OVERALL TOTALS. WPC CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH OF
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, CONSIDERATION OF A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN DEFERRED TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY NOT UNTIL SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PEAKS ON SUNDAY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ENC, GREATEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264. FACTORS
LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WE END UP GETTING, BUT
ENSEMBLE AVERAGES SUGGEST CAPES AS HIGH AS 1000+ J/KG IN SOME
SPOTS. WHILE LOW- LEVEL FORCING IS IN QUESTION, IT'S A SETUP
THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
IF A STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS, THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING CELLS AND A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ELEVATED SRH ALONG
THE FRONT.
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES IN BEHIND IT WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS, BUILDING SEAS, AND
HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY SUPPORT SOME COASTAL IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SHORTER-DURATION OF THE STRONGER WINDS, AS
WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A WEAKER SWELL COMPARED TO THE RECENT
NOR'EASTER. WITH THAT IN MIND, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE WAVES, AT A MINIMUM. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN OCRACOKE AND OREGON INLETS
FOCUSED ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME MINOR
ISSUES, ESPECIALLY WITH SUNDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE (7-9AM).
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND SOUNDS AND
TIDAL WATERWAYS AROUND THE CRYSTAL COAST DUE TO THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE, WITH MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVERHEAD. A FEW LOW CUMULUS
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES AS A WEAK DRY FRONT SINKS SOUTH
ACROSS TERMINALS, BUT LOW CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN,
SOME MIFG/BR MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OAJ, BUT A DEEP/IMPACTFUL FG IS NOT EXPECTED. LIGHT SW WINDS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AS FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTH OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF LOW CIGS, WIDESPREAD RA, AND
POTENTIALLY A TSRA RISK. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WHERE GUSTS COULD NEAR 35 KT. CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY MONDAY BUT WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY AT, OR
BELOW, 10-15KT. DRY FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AREA WATERS LATER TODAY
USHERING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONGER SURGE OF 10-15 KT, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT AND A WEAK, NON-TROPICAL, LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND. IT'S
LIKELY THAT THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST WATERS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (25KT GUSTS), WITH
INCREASING RISK FOR GALES AT LEAST ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS
BEYOND 20NM. GALE WATCHES WERE EXPANDED ACROSS THESE ZONES THIS
MORNING, BUT HELD OFF ON NEARSHORE ZONES FOR NOW GIVEN SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 6-9FT RANGE AT 7-8S. FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS, SEAS MAY REACH 8-10FT.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ158-188.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ180.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ182.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ184-186.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...RM/MS
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