778
FXUS62 KMHX 180017
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
717 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS OVER FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY,
SETTLING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A QUICK MOVING FRONT THEN
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, A WARMING TREND WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF FRONTS IMPACTING THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...
ADDED DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE. WE HAVE DECOUPLED ACROSS THE CWA, AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN DROPPING FASTER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO HOLD, NEW FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 31F
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY. OBX IS ALSO COOLING MUCH FASTER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST WITH THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT LOW TEMPS FROM
REACHING FREEZING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 1300 MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND BREEZY
- COLD TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE FA TONIGHT.
--- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PAMLICO CO.
HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND A STEADY 5-10 MPH
NW'RLY WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE CAA ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS, WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH RH'S GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER TEENS INLAND, 25-30% RANGE ACROSS OBX. WHILE THIS WOULD
TYPICALLY PROMOTE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK ACROSS THE
REGION, GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ELECTED TO NOT HOIST ONE. (SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS)
NWERLY FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AS UPPER LOW EXITS MAINE NWARD INTO
CAN. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER FL PANHANDLE HELPS FLATTEN OUT
MID/UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL, KEEPING COOL DRY AIR
STREAMING OVERHEAD, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NC/VA I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING ECONUS, DRY AIR AT THE SFC AS SEEN BY THE 18Z TDS IN
THE UPPER TEENS, AND WINDS FALLING OUT AS THE SFC HIGH
APPROACHES, ENC WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WITH TS CRASHING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
GONE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE CONSIDERING ALL OF THE
ABOVE AND HOW COLD WE GOT LAST NIGHT, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL
THIS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH. MINTS AOB FREEZING EXPECTED FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND. WARMEST SPOTS FORECASTED TO BE
OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET WHERE MINTS ARE IN THE LOW 40S, BUT
SHOULD THESE AREAS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE, FREEZING ISN'T OUT OF
THE QUESTION. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR PAMLICO COUNTY
WHICH WOULD LEAVE EASTERN CARTERET AND OBX ZONES AS THE ONLY
AREAS STILL "IN THE GROWING SEASON."
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
AS OF 1340 MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
- DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN MON.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, VERY CHILLY START WITH FREEZING TS WARMING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE GETTING RID OF EARLY MORNING FROST,
REACHING THE 50S BY MIDMORNING. SFC HIGH GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY BY APPROACHING, VERTICALLY STACKED, AND
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ALOFT, SFC LOW, AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
LIFTING NEWARD THROUGH AL AND GA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ONSHORE AND THEN MORE SERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING MAXTS TO CREEP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY AS WELL AS INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.
HIGHEST MAXT IN MID TO UPPER 60S SWERN ZONES, UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 NOBX.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1345 MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY
FROM MID-WEEK ON
- STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-ATALNTIC
ON TUE AND WED WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOING THE
SAME. UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM WED
EVENING ON INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN
INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH OR TWO TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THOUGH EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR NOW.
SFC LOW PASSES W OF THE AREA WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264 WHERE CHC POP'S ARE NOTED. WHILE SCHC
POPS EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL DUPLIN/JONES AND CRAVEN
COUNTIES. GENERAL TIMING FOR PRECIP IF IT WERE TO OCCUR FALLS
BETWEEN ABOUT 10PM TUE TO 10AM WED. WITH WINDS BECOMING S'RLY
WED EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WED BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS LATTER HALF OF WED. THIS WILL BRING BENIGN
WEATHER AND CONTINUED AVG TO ABOVE AVG TEMPS TO ENC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND COULD
BRING A SERIES OF LOWS AND THEIR FRONTS CROSSING THROUGH ENC
WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME PRECIP, THOUGH GIVEN
LARGER THAN AVG UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, EXACT DETAILS STILL
NEED TO BE HASHED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD
IN BEHIND WHATEVER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS ENC. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN AVG TO ABOVE AVG GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 6 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
- CALM WINDS TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. WE CLEAR UP AGAIN FOR THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND HAS QUICKLY BECOME CALM
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE DECOUPLE. LIGHT WIND TUESDAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH, LESS THAN 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK: A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS TRANSIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
RTES WITH LOWER CIGS, HOWEVER GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR.
MARINE
AS OF 1400 MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PUSHES OFFSHORE TUE AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO FALL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS CURRENTLY NWERLY 10-15G<20KT AND
SEAS 3-5FT LAYING DOWN WITH THE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE
10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE N TUES MORNING. SFC HIGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE MIDDAY TUESDAY TURNING THE WEAK WINDS TO BE ONSHORE BY
THE SUNSET, SEAS GENERALLY 1-2FT, 3FT OVER FAR OUTER WATERS HATT
N BY THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: SW WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15KT OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH LOW END CHANCE OF SOME RAIN OVER NERN
WATERS. DRY COLD FRONT SAGS S THROUGH AREA WATERS LATE WED
SHIFTING WINDS TO A N-NEERLY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS, WITH 2-4 FT
WITH SOME STRINGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NERLY
SURGE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS RETURN
AND PERSIST BEHIND THIS THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
SAT WITH THE APPROACH OF SERIES OF STRONGER COLD FRONTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1415 MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15-35%
THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURED AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING
A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO ENC AS NOTED BY 18Z TDS IN THE UPPER TEENS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GRADIENTS RELAX WITH THE GUSTINESS
HAVING DROPPED OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY. SIMILARLY DRY EARLY
TOMORROW WITH MINRH VALUES AROUND 25-35% AWAY FROM THE COAST,
BUT LITTLE TO NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF. WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE
EVENING ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. LOW END CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN ZONES TUES NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ094-196.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...CEB/RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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