530  
FXUS62 KMHX 072254  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
554 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A WARM  
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 555 PM FRI...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT  
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST REGION EARLY THIS  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NNW OVERNIGHT  
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER AIR IS  
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY  
FALLING INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WEAK  
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALONG  
WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN (AFTER 06Z) AS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH  
SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. QPF AMTS STILL  
LOOK VERY LIGHT, LIKELY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. TEMPS  
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 250 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GRAD SLIDE  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH  
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPS ALONG IT. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY,  
WITH CHANCES GRAD INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG AND  
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EARLY, SLOWLY IMPROVING  
LATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW  
DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOVEMENT  
OF THE FRONT. DECENT GRADIENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER  
40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW  
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 0400 FRIDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL  
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT  
WEEK. MIDWEEK ONWARD, MORE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LEADS TO  
GREATER CHANCES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH EACH  
WAVE/FRONT.  
 
WEEKEND...THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS WITH IT THE CHANCE OF  
SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE AND IMPACTING COASTAL AREAS SAT  
NIGHT. SUNDAY'S FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE WINDSHIELD WASHER EFFECT  
OF WARM-(RELATIVELY)COLD-WARM BETWEEN FRONTS. SUNDAY'S FRONT  
WILL STALL FURTHER N THAN RECENT FROPAS, WHICH WILL SHORTEN UP  
THE DURATION BETWEEN WAVES OF PRECIP AS THE TRANSITION FROM  
STALLED FRONT->COASTAL TROUGHING->WARM FRONT->LOW WILL BE  
QUICKER.  
 
NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FINALLY BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MOSTLY  
ZONAL FLOW AS DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACNW LEADS TO MORE  
DYNAMIC PATTERN ALOFT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.  
SUNDAY'S FRONT AGAIN STALLS TO THE S ACTS AS FOCAL POINT FOR  
WAVES TRAVELING THROUGH THE AREA. THE GROUNDHOG'S DAY- LIKE  
CYCLE OF FRONTS PASSING, STALLING TO THE S, LIFTING BACK AS A  
WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL BECOME AN OFFSHORE LOW AND SEND ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER WERN CONUS THROUGH THE EARLY  
WEEK, THE CHANCES OF A MORE MEANINGFUL WETTING RAIN INCREASE,  
PEAKING LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND AS THE AXIS OF THE DEVELOPING  
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 555 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE  
TERMINALS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z  
SAT. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINALS, AND EXPECT W/NW  
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO VEER BECOMING NE LATE THIS EVENING. CIGS  
WILL GRAD LOWER OVERNIGHT, LIKELY BECOMING SUB-VFR AFTER SUNRISE  
SAT MORNING. WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AREA  
SATURDAY, WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS  
LIKELY. KEPT CIGS AT MVFR FOR NOW, WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF  
IFR AFTER 15Z BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST A PREVAILING  
IFR GROUP. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME VFR AFTER 21Z SAT  
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MOVES.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 0415 FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH LONG  
TERM WITH THE CYCLE OF COLD FROPA, STALLING TO THE S, LIFTING N  
AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT REPEATS MULTIPLE  
TIMES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE  
CYCLES OF LOW CIGS WITH RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA, LOW  
STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN WAKE OF COLD FROPA OR AROUND OR NEAR WARM  
FRONTS AS THE PASS. WEEKEND STARTS WITH SUBVFR FLIGHT CATS IN  
PLACE SATURDAY WITH LOW CIGS BEHIND WARM FRONT. BRIEF  
IMPROVEMENT TO FLIGHT CATS SAT NIGHT/SUN BUT SWERLY WINDS  
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO  
BRING MORE RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATER SUN.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 555 PM FRI...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH  
THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE  
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.  
LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS, NE-NW 5-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT  
AND W-SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO  
BECOME PRIMARILY NE AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KT THIS EVENING. A FEW  
GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESP ACROSS THE OUTER  
WATERS BUT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA AT THIS TIME. HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GRAD SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY  
SATURDAY, WHILE COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY LIFTS  
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG  
IT. NE WINDS 10-20 KT TO START OFF SAT MORNING, WITH FLOW  
BECOMING MORE E-S THROUGH THE DAY. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO  
15-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT.  
HAVE ISSUED SCA BEGINNING AROUND 18Z FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS,  
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 FRIDAY...LONG TERM WILL BE A PERPETUAL BOUNCE  
BETWEEN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND STRONG SCA APPROACHING GALE  
CONDITIONS AS MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS CROSS, STALL, AND LIFT TO  
CROSS WATERS AGAIN MULTIPLE TIMES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
FRIDAY'S FRONT LIFTS BACK NWARD THROUGH WATERS AS A WARM FRONT  
LATE SAT NIGHT, TURNING 10-20 KT WINDS SERLY AND POTENTIALLY  
BRINGING A THREAT OF SEA FOG. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER  
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO PASS THROUGH  
EARLY SUNDAY, STRENGTHENING WINDS FURTHER SWERLY 15-30KT, SOME  
GUSTS TO GALES POSSIBLE OVER OUTERMOST WATERS AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT. QUICK HITTING NEERLY SURGE TO FOLLOW FROPA, WHICH ALSO  
CARRIES POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. FRONT STALLS OVER OR  
JUST S OF SERNMOST WATERS, KEEPING NEERLY 15-25KT WINDS IN PLACE  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT WAVE WILL LIFT THE  
STALLED BOUNDARY NWARD AS A WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL VERY QUICKLY  
BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY  
FOR AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY  
FOR AMZ156-158.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD  
SHORT TERM...CQD  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...JME/CQD/CEB  
MARINE...JME/CQD/CEB  
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