735
FXUS62 KMHX 210725
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED THE GALES WARNING FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF MARINE HEADLINES FOR SEVERAL ZONES BASED
ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS.
DROPPED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST CARTERET AND OCRACOKE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IMPACTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH MID WEEK.
2) DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
MARINE: GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE APPROX 360 MI
EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
TODAY, THEN WILL QUICKLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EAST TODAY AS THE
LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS
AROUND 30-40 MPH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TODAY.
THE STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE SURF ALONG
THE COAST AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS OF THE COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
ISLANDS WHERE DUNE STRUCTURE IS FRAGILE. THE NATIONAL PARKS
SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM
SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH
OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE. DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS CLOSED FROM THE MARC
BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE, AND FERRY SERVICE REMAINS SUSPENDED
IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, WEBCAMS LAST EVENING SHOW
AT LEAST ONE SECTION OF THE PEA ISLAND DUNE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN
WASHED AWAY. EACH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE TO
THREATEN THE DUNES FURTHER, AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
TO HWY 12 REMAIN. TIDES ARE EXPECTED
MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND, INCLUDING FRISCO AND OCRACOKE. A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HATTERAS AND
OCRACOKE ISLANDS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR CAPE HATTERAS
AND POINTS NORTH THROUGH THE OBX WHERE SURF HEIGHT UP TO 8-12
FT WILL CONTINUE. HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY SOUTH OF
HATTERAS AS SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PLEASANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S INLAND TO THE 50S COAST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND
15-20 KT AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAYTIME MIXING. COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. INLAND WINDS WOULD BE HIGHEST DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
BETTER MIXING AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY.
MARINE
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUING
TO SUPPLY A STEADY FETCH OF STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INTO ENC WITH LARGE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS.
LATEST OBS SHOW N-NNE WINDS 10-20 KT ACROSS THE RIVERS AND
20-25 KT GUSTING 25-35 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS
5-7 FT SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AND 10-15+ FT NORTH. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW VERY
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND DEEPENS, BUT WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SEAS WILL ONLY SUBSIDE BY A COUPLE OF FEET TONIGHT WITH LARGE
SWELLS PERSISTING. HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT GUSTS TO GALE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY
THURSDAY THAT THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA, HOWEVER VERY LARGE SEAS AS HIGH AS
10-15 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-154-
186.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ180-182-184.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ231.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD/SK
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...RM/CQD/SK
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