903
FXUS62 KMHX 302025
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTER NC THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BRINGING AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES
OUR MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ENC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME, A POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH AND ENTER INTO THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WILL PROMOTE AMPLE
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN KY TRACKING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE DEEPENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SW'WARDS TRACKING ACROSS ENC TONIGHT.
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
NOTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODEST DAYTIME HEATING IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2.0
INCHES ACROSS ENC AS WELL. AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO ENC LATER THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-60 KTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NC WILL CONTINUE TO
RACE EASTWARDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY MERGE INTO
LINEAR CLUSTERS OR MULTIPLE MCS'S AS THEY NEAR ENC. EXPECT
STORMS TO REACH THE WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN THE
5-7 PM AND THEN REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 8-11 PM. THE MAIN
EXPECTED HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60+
MPH), AND A FEW TORNADOES AS HELICITY INCREASES THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, ONCE CONVECTION EXITS OFF THE NC COAST AND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S INLAND, AND LOWER 60S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
- FORECAST FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW MOISTURE
MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL BE A DRY AND MILD DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXITING OFF OF THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA DEPENDING UPON THE
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. BY LATE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH VA AND INTO NC AND WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS BEING THE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY, SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MOST LIKELY THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST.
IN FAVOR OF SEVERE WEATHER, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE WITH 0-6 KM VALUES NEAR 40 KTS AND INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH NOT
OUTSTANDING SHOULD BE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BREAKING THAT DOWN A LITTLE
FURTHER THOUGH WE RUN INTO SOME PROBLEMS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 5-6 DEG/KM. UPDRAFT HELICITY PAINTBALL PLOTS DO SHOW
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 4 PM OR SO IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS
SOME SUSTAINED GROWTH, THEN THE THREAT FOR HAIL INCREASES AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 KFT. ON THE DAMAGING WIND SIDE OF
THINGS, DCAPE VALUES ARE GREATEST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE, THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL BE THE BIGGEST INHIBITOR TO SEVERE WX DEVELOPMENT. BEHIND
THE FRONT PW VALUES ARE ONLY 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH. WHILE MODELS DUE
SHOW A SURGE OF 700 MB RH, IT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE
BEST INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN SOUTHERN VA ADD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERE WEATHER MAKING IT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN
NC.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
SUNDAY (6/1):
QUIET START TO THE DAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES LOWER SUNDAY.
MONDAY (6/2) - FRIDAY (6/6):
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK
AS RIDGING PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE AREA OF RIDGING,
WITH EACH DAY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AS THE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALTHOUGH HIGH TO OUR EAST MAY SHIELD US
FROM PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF TSRA OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS, HOWEVER AROUND AND IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LOWER VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DOWN TO IFR LEVELS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT, AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN BRIEF DROPS TO SUB-VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MONDAY- WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW STRATUS CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
- INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, SW WINDS ARE INCREASING, AND WILL SOON BE
20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AT 25-30 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
35 KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE TOMORROW MORNING TO 15-25 KTS, BUT THEN
RESTRENGTHENING TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO SW 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT, AND THEN SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 4-6 FT TOMORROW.
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONG AMBIENT WINDS, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KT
WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS AND
SEAS 4-6 FT CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS
AND SEAS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ136.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...RTE/SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
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