353
FXUS62 KRAH 271049
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SAT EVENING, WITH ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRI.
2) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO END AUGUST AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT EVENING, WITH ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRI.
WE WILL STAY IN A MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH LATE SAT, AS
BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS FROM THE E GREAT LAKES/SW QUEBEC
DOWN THROUGH W NC/AL/GA, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER AZ/NM AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFFSHORE SE OF
BERMUDA. YESTERDAY'S BELOW-NORMAL PW (~0.75-1.1") HAS ALREADY BEEN
SUPPLANTED BY VALUES OF 1.5-2.0" AS A DEEP WET FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN CONTINUES ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE
ANOMALOUS PWS (110-130% OF NORMAL, HIGHEST ALONG/E OF HWY 1)
COMBINED WITH PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH BASE TO THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH (YIELDING MODEST DPVA) AND
THE PASSING BOUTS OF RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ACT ON THIS MOISTURE
TO SQUEEZE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH A FEW MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO
THE LOW-MID 70S AND PARTIAL HEATING THROUGH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
WILL HELP PUSH DAILY SBCAPE TO PEAKS OF 1500-2500 J/KG EACH DAY
THROUGH SAT, HIGHEST MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR STAYS QUITE BORDERLINE AT AROUND 20 KTS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT 5.3-5.9 C/KM, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH RESPECTIVELY. BUT THE ELEVATED PW
VALUES ESPECIALLY ALONG/E OF HWY 1 ALONG WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER OVER 4 KM FAVORING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORM MOTION AND TRAINING WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HIGH LOCALIZE RAIN TOTALS. THE EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN CLUSTERS PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A FLOOD
WATCH, BUT AT LEAST A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL HEAD BACK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS PIVOTS CLOCKWISE TO A W-E ORIENTATION AND PUSHES TO OUR
S, ALLOWING MID-UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS, A FEW WET MICROBURSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
STRONG STORMS ON FRI, WHEN SPC HAS US IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN, THE BULK SHEAR WON'T BE
ESPECIALLY STRONG, BUT THE MODERATE CAPE AND POSSIBLE DYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM UPSTREAM MCVS AND RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD TIP
THE SCALES TO MORE MATURE AND LONG-LIVED STORMS ON FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO END AUGUST AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
THE PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE DISPLACED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PACNW AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PROCESS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MID/UPPER LVL
HEIGHTS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
THIS HEIGHT PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR POSITIVE H850 TEMP
ANOMALIES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND FAVOR WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL NATURALLY BE
COMPLICATED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES, DEEP
LAYER OF ANOMALOUS LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS, AND CLOSE PROXIMITY
WITH THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY HELP MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES ONWARD WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK HAVING A
40-70% CHANCE OF REACHING THE MAJOR RISK CATEGORY.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL SUITE AND RELATED AI GUIDANCE HOLDS THIS PATTERN
WELL INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WHILE THE GFS MODEL SUITE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND RETROGRADE IT
WESTWARD AS EARLY AS LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
IN ADDITION TO STREAMS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING OVER
OUR REGION THIS MORNING, AREAS OF BKN MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NC, WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
EXTREME EAST AND SOUTH, INCLUDING IFR CONDITIONS AT RWI/FAY AND MVFR
AT INT/GSO OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP AND LIFT BY 15Z, ALTHOUGH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. THEN STARTING LATE MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
SE (FAY), AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN AND NEAR AND
SHOWERS/STORMS. COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL SITES EARLY FRI MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE ANY RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 8 KTS MAINLY FROM THE S
AND SW THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z FRI, ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING FRI. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SAT EVENING,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FRI
AND SAT. MORNING SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT 08Z-14Z AT
ANY SITE FRI AND SAT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN DECREASE FOR SUN
ONWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT, AND CHANCES FOR EARLY-MORNING SUB-
VFR FOG/CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECLINE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/SWIGGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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