681
FXUS62 KRAH 051154
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
654 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
1) AREAS OF FOG AND VERY LOW OVERCAST ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEVELOP/ADVECT INLAND AND ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTL CAROLINAS EACH MORNING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
2) VERY WARM TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS AROUND
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS AROUND 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH DAY,
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AREAS OF FOG AND VERY LOW OVERCAST ALONG AND JUST
OFFSHORE THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEVELOP/ADVECT INLAND AND
ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTL CAROLINAS EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ONSHORE FLOW, AROUND WHAT WILL BECOME A PERSISTENT SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES,
WILL TRANSPORT AN INCREASINGLY-MOIST AIRMASS INLAND, SUCH THAT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S F OVER CNTL NC THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO UPR 50S TO LOW-MID 60S BY THIS WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE INLAND DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF FOG AND
LOW OVERCAST INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AND ERN SANDHILLS EACH
MORNING, WITH SREF AND HREF PROBABILITIES THAT FAVOR GREATEST
COVERAGE FRI THROUGH SUN MORNING, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAXIMIZE. THAT WHICH HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT SAMPSON CO., AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WAYNE AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES, BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS OVER SERN NC THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... VERY WARM TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS AROUND 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL LOCK IN LARGELY SWLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (REACHING THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S MUCH OF THE PERIOD.)
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY STAY TO OUR WEST THURSDAY, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM ALONG THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN
PIEDMONT. BY FRIDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST, AND
WITH IT WE'LL SEE CONTINUED AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS PRIMARILY IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. BY SATURDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK-DOWN. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO SPILL EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. STILL A BIT OUT, BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR
SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A JET LIFTS OVER
US AND OFFSHORE.
BEYOND MONDAY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNAL FOR A TEMPORARY RE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL BAJA LOW. THIS MAY
ALLOW YET ANOTHER WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S (ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY DAMPEN THESE HIGHS A BIT).
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF VLIFR-IFR FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND RAPIDLY
EXPANDED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS SC AND SRN NC, THE NRN EDGE OF
WHICH EXTENDED AT 1150Z FROM NEAR VUJ TO TTA TO GSB, INCLUDING FAY.
SOME MAY REACH EVEN PIEDMONT SITES AND RWI IN THE FORM OF FEW TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY BROKEN 500-1200 FT AGL CLOUD BASES THROUGH AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE, SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTL CAROLINAS EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
AT FAY AND RWI AND WITH GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT FRI-SAT. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SETTLE INTO CNTL NC, WITH AN ASSOCIATED LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, ON SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 5: KGSO: 81/1967 KRDU: 83/1967 KFAY: 87/1976
MARCH 6: KGSO: 78/2022 KRDU: 82/1967 KFAY: 86/1918
MARCH 7: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 85/1974 KFAY: 84/1961
MARCH 8: KGSO: 83/2000 KRDU: 87/1974 KFAY: 87/1974
MARCH 9: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 84/2009 KFAY: 87/1974
MARCH 10: KGSO: 78/2016 KRDU: 81/1974 KFAY: 84/1974
MARCH 11: KGSO: 86/1967 KRDU: 85/1925 KFAY: 87/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 5: KGSO: 61/1976 KRDU: 65/1976 KFAY: 63/1976
MARCH 6: KGSO: 64/1967 KRDU: 64/1967 KFAY: 65/1961
MARCH 7: KGSO: 63/1956 KRDU: 64/1956 KFAY: 65/1961
MARCH 8: KGSO: 57/1946 KRDU: 60/1946 KFAY: 63/1961
MARCH 9: KGSO: 61/1921 KRDU: 61/1921 KFAY: 62/1980
MARCH 10: KGSO: 58/2016 KRDU: 57/2020 KFAY: 65/1964
MARCH 11: KGSO: 62/2016 KRDU: 63/2016 KFAY: 63/2016
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS/NL
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page