675
FXUS62 KRAH 110543
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDITION OF A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TO
THE TRIAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY, WITH UNUSUAL AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT THU/FRI. THE HEAT MAY ABATE A BIT SAT,
BUT TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN.
3) AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TRIAD.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS
OCCURRED TO THE NORTH ACROSS VIRGINIA WITH A LINE OF STORMS THAT
ORIGINALLY TRACKED ACROSS OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS VIRGINIA, THE WESTERN END OF THE LINE
COULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION, SPC HAS A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
TRIAD FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. DESPITE THE LOW CLOUD COVER THAT WAS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING, THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS FORMED, WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG
OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A LACK OF
WIND SHEAR SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AWAY
FROM THE PRIMARY LINE IN VIRGINIA, SO THIS IS NOT THE ONLY THREAT
AREA FOR PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNSET, WITH ALL RAIN DONE BY MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH UNUSUAL AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT THU/FRI. TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE MERCURY WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE TOMORROW. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 90S, AND AN
ISOLATED TRIPLE DIGIT READING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH IS CONTINUING TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, AND
THIS WILL ALLOW MANY PLACES TO HAVE A HEAT INDEX IN THE LOW 100S
TOMORROW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH 105
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH TOMORROW, WHICH IS THE LOCAL CRITERIA FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE
LACK OF A HEAT ADVISORY, ANYBODY WHO IS OUTSIDE AND ACTIVE TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SURE TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO REMAIN WELL
HYDRATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT AS HIGHS WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC AGAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID-90S ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE, WITH THE TRIANGLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY WILL BE
THE HOTTEST DAY, AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S,
THE LACK OF OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE HEAT RISK.
CONSEQUENTLY, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS THE
RISK FOR SUDDEN HEAT ILLNESSES SPIKES. ON FRIDAY, THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA REACHING A MAJOR
HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4), WHICH CAN ADVERSELY IMPACT ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING. HOWEVER, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE HEAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IF STORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY EVENING- TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY ON TRACK FOR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
WHILE MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY, ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE
RAIN AROUND SUNSET. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE PARTICULARS IS LOW DUE TO THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE NOT YET DEVELOPED. FRIDAY ONWARD THERE WILL
BE DAILY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHALLOW FOG
PATCHES AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING (10Z-13Z), BASED ON
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RHS. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ALONG WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI), BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY TERMINAL BEING
IMPACTED, SO HAVE OMITTED THIS MENTION FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW OR WSW, MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS BUT
A FEW KTS HIGHER LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z FRI, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY DOMINATE
THROUGH MON, HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE STARTING LATE FRI, AND THESE WILL BRING LIGHTNING AND A
RISK FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 10: KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
JUNE 15: KRDU: 99/2015 KFAY: 101/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 10: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 76/2020
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 16: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2015
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/CA
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page