178
FXUS62 KRAH 231050
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
1) THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GULF NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW
INCLUDING A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD RANGING BETWEEN 30-60% OF NORMAL.
A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GENERATE SOME FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE TODAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS. THESE WILL BE THE FIRST NOTABLE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL NC SINCE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES BEFORE A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY AN THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEED TO CONSIDER LIMITED RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...
REINFORCING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RELATED NELY
SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KTS MAINLY AT FAY AND RWI WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY. THE NELY
FLOW REGIME WILL BE A MARITIME-INFLUENCED ONE THAT WILL FAVOR AN
UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATED STRATOCUMULUS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE MOST STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE BASED ABOVE
3000 FT AGL AND GENERALLY FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, THERE IS A
CHANCE (~30 PERCENT) FOR SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY
EACH MORNING.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SMALL CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN NELY FLOW THIS WEEKEND, DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES
AVIATION...MWS
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