840
FXUS62 KRAH 062316
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
716 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW, RADIATION FOG ARE FORECAST
AT RWI WED MORNING.
* CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ON SUNDAY IS INCREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...
1) RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OCCURRING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
OCCURRING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS OF 2PM TUESDAY, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
WAS TRACKING A BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF, GIVING THIS NEAR A 100 PERCENT CHANCE TO FORM A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT BECOME A TROPICAL
SYSTEM, COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE LOW
CENTER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE
SYSTEM LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GET
INTO THE DETAILS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF
SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY, WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY PEAKING ON SUNDAY, WITH RAINFALL DECREASING MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LESS THAN A 10%
CHANCE OF 40 MPH WIND GUSTS LOCALLY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH WED AND FAVOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN CNTL NC.
THE EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHALLOW, RADIATION FOG
AT RWI WED MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SHALLOW RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RWI THU MORNING
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING, BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING FRI. RAIN AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS, IN COLD AIR DAMMING, ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...MWS
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