165
FXUS62 KRAH 052023
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 355 PM SATURDAY...
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC INTO
MID EVENING. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS.
2) TODAY IS THE LAST DANGEROUSLY HOT DAY OF THIS STRETCH, WITH A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE HEAT COMING SUN THROUGH TUE. BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR WED THROUGH SAT, WITH THU AS THE HOTTEST DAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 355 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC INTO MID EVENING. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS HOUR, WITH A GENERAL
MOTION TO THE SE AND SSE. AS THESE FEED ON MODERATE SBCAPE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-45 KTS AND HIGH
DCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS AND
CLUSTERS PRODUCING 60+ MPH WINDS AND 1-2" DIAMETER HAIL REMAIN
LIKELY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
UNTIL 8 PM EDT, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IN FAR NW AREAS HAS
DIMINISHED AS OF NOW.
AS THESE STORMS AND ITS ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL ZONE SETTLE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS BY MID EVENING AND TO OUR S BY MIDNIGHT, MORE STABLE
AIR AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN A
GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... TODAY IS THE LAST DANGEROUSLY HOT DAY OF THIS
STRETCH, WITH A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE HEAT COMING SUN THROUGH TUE.
BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR WED THROUGH SAT, WITH THU
AS THE HOTTEST DAY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS DROP SE AND SSE THROUGH THE AREA, THE
RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL BRING A WELCOMED END TO THIS STRETCH OF
DANGEROUS HEAT. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM
THE N AND NE WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR SUN-TUE, AS BROAD BUT DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST. BY MID WEEK, MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE W, FROM THE MID MISS
VALLEY, PUSHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THIS HEAT
DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS INTENSE AS THIS MOST RECENT HEAT WAVE, AS THE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER, KEEPING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
EVEN ON THU IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100F. APART FROM A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SUN, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
RENEWED MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD HELP
KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRI/SAT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...
OF MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE RISK FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE EARLIER
AREA OF STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS FRACTURED AS IT TRACKED TO
THE SE AND SSE, WITH WESTERN PORTION NOW MOVING SE INTO THE NC MTNS
WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION TRACKS E OVER E VA. BUT A RESIDUAL WEAK
BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AND TRACK SE AND S
THROUGH THE AREA FROM 18Z TO 00Z, NNW TO ESE. HAVE INCLUDED A FEW-
HOUR PERIOD OF TEMPO THUNDER IN ALL TAFS FOLLOWING THIS TIMING.
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY STORMS, EVEN WELL
AWAY FROM STORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW, AND ISOLATED 50+ KT GUSTS MAY OCCUR
AS WELL. APART FROM BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
STARTING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, FIRST ACROSS THE NE.
COVERAGE OF THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHEST 10Z-12Z, WITH A
GRADUAL LIFT/DISPERSION FROM 13Z THROUGH 16Z SUN, AND A SLOW TREND
TO VFR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (18Z SUN). AWAY FROM
STORMS, PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10 KTS WILL BE FROM
THE W AND NW TODAY, SHIFTING AROUND TO N AND NE THROUGH SUN WITH
INCREASING GUSTS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SUN.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN, THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS INTO MID AFTERNOON SUN, ALONG WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
MUCH OF THU WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER, ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES START
TO RAMP BACK UP LATE THU WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORDS WITHIN REACH THIS FORECAST PERIOD:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 5: KGSO: 97/1954 KRDU: 98/2023 KFAY: 99/1932
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 5: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 74/2012 KFAY: 74/1935
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-
089.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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