480
FXUS62 KRAH 301051
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
651 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR AVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY, THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A PM THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN LINGER
INTO MID-WEEK. EXPECT RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK THAT MAY CONTINUE TO BRING BIG RELIEF WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH A TROUGH LIKELY DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES CHECK SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
FEW/SCT FAIR WEATHER CU IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5-7 KFT
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF
LINGERING STRATOCU, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES TO BE MET AT RWI/FAY
AND PROVIDE A SHORT PERIOD OF MIST. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
OCCURRENCE, VSBY TEMPORARY VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE ADDED IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
OUTLOOK: LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE, AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING
MID/UPR-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS,
WILL FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...AS/MWS
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