121
FXUS62 KRAH 271044
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
1) THE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
2) THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY PAST THE I-
95 CORRIDOR AND STALL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN US-1 AND I-95 AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-95. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WITH MINIMAL WIND SHEAR, THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZATION. WHILE HIGHS
WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING, WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST,
REACHING LAKE ERIE BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN DRIFTING EAST INTO NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE LOW WILL STALL OUT, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST, MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEST WIND
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ALTHOUGH THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TIMING THAT THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL COME FROM DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
IS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL PRIMARILY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TRIANGLE AND A MINIMAL CHANCE OF A TORNADO NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. MUCH OF THE AREA IS ALSO UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, TUESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS HAVING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WERE FORECAST ACROSS
LOCAL TERMINALS, AS OF 1045Z, ONLY GSO (FOG/STRATUS) AND RWI (FOG)
HAVE HAD ANY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP. THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD EASE UP
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, IT APPEARS THAT THE
BULK OF THE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF RWI AND HAVE KEPT
THAT TERMINAL'S FORECAST DRY.
OUTLOOK: FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AWAY FROM INT/GSO. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT INT/GSO/RDU AND
TUESDAY EVENING AT RDU/RWI/FAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES MODEST RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY, THEN DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...GREEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page