544
FXUS62 KRAH 071728
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 128 PM FRIDAY...
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE SETTLE
INTO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
2) RISK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT MANY FAILURE MODES EXISTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED FORECAST
PATTERN WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 128 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
WE SETTLE INTO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A PAIR OF ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG (NEARLY 600DM) H5 RIDGES IN PLACE (ONE OFF THE EAST COAST,
ONE OVER UTAH), WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN BETWEEN THEM STRETCHING
FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO LOUISIANA. ACROSS NC, DEEP
AND BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE
SURFACE WELL INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. SURFACE OBS
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEAL A FAIRLY UNIFORM ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ALONG
WITH SOME CLUSTERS OF STORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST. IN
BETWEEN, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS
OF 17Z.
WHILE STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST, WE'VE ERODED SOME
OF THE PW THAT WAS IN PLACE YESTERDAY (WAS NEARLY 1.9", NOW CLOSER
TO 1.7"). AS SUCH, WE HAVE A BIT LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES STILL APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG COMPARED TO
MORE THAN 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH LESS
THAN 20KTS OF BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL STRUGGLE
TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR LONG AND SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN
NATURE. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN IS ONE FOCAL AREA TODAY, WITH STORMS COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS
SERVING AS A SECONDARY AREA OF ATTENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD SPAWN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN ALONG THE US-1 CORRIDOR BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY AT BEST. EXPECT ANY/ALL STORM CLUSTERS TO DISSIPATE CLOSER TO
00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL FLATTENING PROCESS
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD INTO
THE GULF AND SE STATES BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FURTHER
SUPPRESS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE AREA AND OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WEAK SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RISK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MANY FAILURE MODES EXISTS WITHIN THE
EXPECTED FORECAST PATTERN WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE RETROGRADING AND
ELONGATED WESTWARD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO SITUATED BETWEEN TWO BANDS OF
SEASONABLY ANOMALOUS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE SUN THROUGH TUES, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CHANCES, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
LINGERING SMALL-SCALE FORCING MAY COUPLE WITH A BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AS IT SAGS SOUTH
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS WED ONWARD WHICH WILL COMPLICATE THE RISK FOR
CONTINUED DANGEROUS HEAT BEYOND TUES.
IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION, BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WARMING H850 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20C WOULD SUPPORT LOW-
MID 90S AS EARLY AS SUN, AND AS HIGH AS UPPER 90S POSSIBLE TUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON THE POSITION/LOCATION OF A PERSIST PIEDMONT TROUGH, WITH DRIER
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO ITS WEST AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO ITS EAST.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS FEATURE, AND THAT REMAIN VOID OF CONVECTION,
WILL LIKELY REACH MODERATE HEATRISK AND ECLIPSE 105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1232 PM FRIDAY...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TODAY AS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY, WITH TWO FOCAL AREAS OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN APPROACHING FAY. THE OTHER WILL BE THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE STORMS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP. INT/GSO/FAY ALL
STAND THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING A QUICK STORM BETWEEN 20Z-23Z
WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, ALBEIT A LOW CHANCE ONLY AROUND 20-30
PERCENT. CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER AT RDU/RWI AND STORMS WILL BE LEFT
OUT OF THOSE TAFS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME PRE-DAWN STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT FAY.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN UPTICK IN UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
MORNING STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE ANY GIVEN MORNING WITH BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/SWIGGETT
AVIATION...LEINS
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