097
FXUS62 KRAH 061815
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS OVER OUR SW AND
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
1) A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SW OF AN INT-TO-GSB LINE, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2) NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, THEN MODERATING TO
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SW OF AN INT-TO-GSB LINE, WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM W NC ACROSS S NC, ALIGNED
WITH MID LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW
CENTERED JUST SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS TRACKING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND FEEDING ON MODERATE SBCAPE AND 70-75F DEWPOINTS
ARE MAINTAINING A MATURE CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW TRACKING SE OVER OUR
S SANDHILLS AND S COASTAL PLAIN. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KTS IS MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, HOWEVER THE STILL-
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW 30-40 KT GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONAL
STORM CLUSTERS TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NC ARE
POISED TO FOLLOW ROUGHLY THIS SAME PATH THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
HOWEVER THE WANING HEATING AND WORKED-OVER AIR MASS OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH MAY MEAN LIMITED STORM STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION
AS THEY REACH OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVER THE N AND E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITHIN THE LESS-
UNSTABLE AIR AND NE SURFACE FLOW NE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLOWLY WANE AND SHIFT TO OUR SW THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
LEAVING US WITHIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSING DEBRIS STRATOCU AND MID CLOUDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, THEN
MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
ALOFT, THE ~594 DAM MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST TO START THE
WEEK WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EWD ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK.
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT NRN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS CNTL AND ERN CANADA SHOULD AMPLIFY SWD, THEN PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE
ANTICYCLONE WWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE IT BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SEWD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH
MAY CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON WED, HOWEVER A WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU AS THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SETS UP, WITH SLY-SWLY FLOW EXPECTED THU-FRI. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON FRI, HOWEVER ITS PROGRESSION INTO
THE AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE THU/FRI AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S, MODERATING THROUGH THU, WHEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT THIS HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC,
MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS, AND ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE FOUND
IN AND NEAR A CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW JUST ENE AND E OF THE CLT METRO
AREA AND TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A FRONTAL
ZONE STRETCHING WNW-TO-ESE ACROSS W AND S NC, AND WHILE IT SHOULD
STAY LARGELY SW OF OUR TAF SITES, THESE STORMS MAY PASS NEAR FAY
THIS AFTERNOON, AND A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS NOW OVER THE
N MOUNTAINS OF NC MAY SKIRT JUST W AND S OF INT/GSO TOWARD EARLY
EVENING. REGARDLESS, A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 00Z AT ANY TAF
SITE. THESE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUD BASES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER INT/GSO/RDU/FAY COULD SEE A FEW MORE
HOURS OF MVFR CIGS. AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES FURTHER TO
OUR S AND SW, WITH DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE N AND NE,
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL PUSH TO OUR S AND SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH OUR FAR
SW MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT 09Z-13Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
STAY MAINLY FROM THE NE THROUGH MON.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MON, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH MUCH OF THU WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES START TO RAMP BACK UP LATE THU, AND STAY ELEVATED THROUGH
FRI, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/10
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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