619
FXUS62 KRAH 181121
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
* MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED THAT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF HWY 1 WILL SEE
STORM TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.50-0.75", TAPERING DOWN TO
A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH IN THE TRIAD.
* THE MOST LIKELY SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN AT A TRACE TO A HALF INCH,
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ROW OR TWO OF CENTRAL NC COUNTIES; THE
REASONABLE WORST-CASE/HIGHER-END SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, AT
1.0-2.0" WITH ISOLATED 3" AMOUNTS, AND THESE LOW-PROBABILITY
HIGHER-END TOTALS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST.
* THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A STRIP OF HIGHER SNOW TOTALS (0.5-
1.5") OVER PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE FAR W COASTAL PLAIN
JUST E OF THE TRIANGLE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVIEST IN THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
2) COLD ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
3) NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVIEST IN THE SE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO A
PERIOD OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
OVERVIEW: A DEEP POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED
ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA WILL SWING E THEN NE
TODAY, MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TILTING WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
JETTING TO THE E OF THIS SHORTWAVE TO ACCELERATE, RESULTING IN A
FOCUSED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DPVA, WITH PEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT OCCURRING OVER OUR AREA FROM VERY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS, COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN GRADUALLY
FROM THE NW AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS SHIFTS THROUGH. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY TODAY WHILE CONGEALING INTO ONE OR TWO
LOWS, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT AND SOMEWHAT WEAK AS THEY
PUSH WELL TO OUR ENE AND OFFSHORE LATER TODAY.
PRECIP AMOUNTS: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
AMOUNTS, WITH LESSER TOTALS IN OUR NW AND THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER
THE E SANDHILLS THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR, ESP IN THE
FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 1" LIQUID REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT
OVERALL PEAK RAINFALL SHOULD BE AROUND 0.75".
PRECIP TYPE: WHILE THE COLDEST SURFACE AIR WILL HOLD W OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TODAY, CAA JUST ALOFT WILL ENSURE THAT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN FROM ABOUT 950 MB UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL COOL TO BE
BELOW FREEZING AS THE COLUMN SATURATES WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT AMIDST ABOVE NORMAL PW (HIGHEST SE OF RALEIGH). WE'RE LIKELY
TO SEE THE LAST FEW HOURS OF PRECIP AS A MIXTURE WITH OR CHANGEOVER
TO WET SNOW, LIKELY LASTING FOR 1-3 HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
(THERE IS NO THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN OR ICING.) THE KEY WILL BE THE
SURFACE (OR NEAR-SURFACE) WET BULB TEMPS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES BUT HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 32F THROUGH THE
END OF THE PRECIP. A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL TO NO
ACCUMULATION AS ANY SNOW MELTS AS IT FALLS, HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
CONCENTRATED DYNAMIC LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING TO PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF FULL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION, MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES, AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SNOW ISLANDS OF HIGHER TOTALS.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SCENARIO OF ALMOST NO ACCUMULATION WOULD
HAPPEN IF THE SURFACE TEMPS SIMPLY STAY TOO WARM THROUGH THE EVENT,
RESULTING IN A COMPLETE MELTING OF ANY SNOW ALOFT AS IT REACHES THE
GROUND. FOR THE HIGHER-END SCENARIO, VERY STRONG LIFT AND INTENSE
DYNAMIC COOLING IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLER-THAN-EXPECTED SURFACE AIR
(EVEN BY JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES, MAKING THIS QUITE TRICKY) COULD
LEAD TO A LONGER DURATION OF MOSTLY SNOW, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
INTENSITY. IN PARTICULAR, IF THE SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
DEEPENS MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH SLOPING FGEN JUST ALOFT, BANDS OF
HEAVIER TOTALS MAY OCCUR, INCLUDING IN OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SANDHILLS UP THROUGH THE W COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE THIS HAS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF HAPPENING OVERALL, WE'LL BE CLOSELY MONITORING
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OVER GA AND SC TO SEE IF SUCH BANDING COMES TO
FRUITION.
TEMPS: 24-HR HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PEAK, WITH
READINGS STEADY THEN SLIPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BLACK ICE POTENTIAL TONIGHT: WITH TEMPS AREAWIDE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE EVENING AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S, ANY PUDDLES OR SNOW RUNOFF WILL FREEZE, AND LINGERING WET SPOTS
ON ROADS MAY TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLACK ICE MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COLD ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY, WHILE SWLY SFC FLOW
ALLOWS TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN AMPLIFY AND PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE COLD SFC HIGH/AIR MASS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MID TO LATE WEEK
WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME MODERATION TO NEARER NORMAL TEMPS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WED; UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S THURSDAY). A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, BUT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS NEXT WEEKEND.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME, GIVEN TIMING, TRACK AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES (BEARS WATCHING).
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO 14Z, WITH AREAS OF RAIN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND BECOMING MORE STEADY. THEN, BY AROUND 14Z, CENTRAL
NC TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR, AND BRIEFLY LIFR. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST UNTIL ~18Z-21Z AT INT/GSO AND UNTIL 21Z-01Z AT
RDU/RWI/FAY, AFTER WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE, RESULTING IN A TREND BACK
TO VFR. THE AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE MIXED OR BRIEFLY CHANGE
TO MOSTLY WET SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS, MAINLY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT
INT/GSO, AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT RDU/RWI, WITH FAY LIKELY
SEEING ALL RAIN OR JUST A BRIEF RAIN/WET SNOW MIXTURE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. VSBYS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG IN THE SE (INCLUDING FAY) 07Z-12Z EARLY MON MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, MAINLY FROM THE N OR NW,
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, THEN BECOME UNIFORMLY FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS, BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE W AFTER NIGHTFALL
UNDER 5 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MON, DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THU, ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/DUNSTAN/LUCHETTI
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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