283
FXUS62 KRAH 061921
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
321 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
1) HOT, WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITH STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL
SETTLE INTO CNTL NC TUE EVENING THROUGH EARLY WED
2) ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUE, PRIMARILY OVER
THE N AND E. LESSER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI, WITH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT WILL RETURN BRIEFLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS
INTENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS THE RECENT HEAT WAVE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT, WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION
WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT
THAT WILL SETTLE INTO CNTL NC TUE EVENING THROUGH EARLY WED
IN THE MID/UPR-LEVELS, CONVECTIVELY-PERTURBED SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, BETWEEN A VERY SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN N. ATLANTIC.
WHILE ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL, AND WITH
SOME TENDENCY FOR THE FLOW TO BE ANTICYCLONIC AROUND THE RIDGE,
SMALL MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY FOCUS MESOSCALE
LIFT AMID MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
PWS AROUND 2-2.25" AND 125% OF NORMAL. ONE SUCH MCV, FROM DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AL/GA LAST EVENING, HAS TRACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD NEWD AND INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NEWD AND ACROSS THE NRN NC
PIEDMONT AND S-CNTL TO SERN VA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER MCV
APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED, ACCORDING TO KRAX AND KCAE MID-LEVEL
VELOCITY DATA, WITHIN A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT HAS MORE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OUT OF CNTL SC. THIS FEATURE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY AS THE FIRST, THOUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST (ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND ERN PIEDMONT) AND TRAILING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A GENERALLY PERSISTENCE ONE
IN AND AROUND CNTL NC, WITH AN APPALACHIAN-LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. A WEAK LEE AND INCREASINGLY FRONTAL LOW OVER
THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SAG SWD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR, OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT AND INTO AT LEAST N-
CNTL NC TUE EVENING-NIGHT.
IN THIS SIMILAR/PERSISTENCE PATTERN, THOUGH MORE-MOIST AT THE
SURFACE AND THROUGH THE MID/UPR-LEVELS, MULTI-CELL CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCVS AND ALONG
OUTFLOW, WITH NEWD PROPAGATION ACROSS MOST ALL OF CNTL NC THROUGH
THE EVENING. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE IMPACTED, ITS
INHERENT MULTI-CELL NATURE WILL FAVOR HEAVY, CONVECTIVE RAIN FOR
SOME AND BARELY MEASURABLE, DECAYING STRATIFORM RAIN FOR OTHERS.
ALTHOUGH DCAPE HAS DECREASED GIVEN THE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE (PWS
AROUND 2" VS 1.5" OF SUN), MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (HIGHEST
AND IN EXCESS OF 3000-3500 J/KG CENTERED IN THE SRN COASTAL PLAIN
AND ERN SANDHILLS) WILL SUPPORT WATER-LOADED/WET MICROBURSTS, THOUGH
PROBABLY FEWER IN NUMBER THAN SUN GIVEN THE DIMINISHED DCAPE. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR YET AGAIN ON TUE, WITH PROBABLY
SIMILAR COVERAGE AND RISK OF DOWNBURST WINDS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES TUE WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE A COUPLE OR SO DEGREES
LESS HOT ON AVERAGE THAN THOSE OF TODAY, SLIGHTLY RICHER
MOISTURE/HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY YIELD YET ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 F FOR ALL BUT THE NW
PIEDMONT. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH OR
MARGINALLY EXCEED 105 F.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUE,
PRIMARILY OVER THE N AND E. LESSER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH
FRI, WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT IT
WON'T BE NEARLY AS INTENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS THE RECENT HEAT WAVE.
PWS WILL REMAIN AROUND 150% OF NORMAL OVER NORTHERN AND NE NC TUE,
AHEAD OF A BAGGY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH PA AND THE OHIO VALLEY TO AR. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BUT REMAIN TO OUR N AND NW, KEEPING
US FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SURFACE TROUGH HOLDING THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT. STEERING FLOW AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK TUE, KEEPING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK DESPITE
EXPECTED MODERATE SBCAPE AND DCAPE NEAR 800 J/KG (ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY CURB OUR INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT). BUT
THE RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NE CWA, GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW STORM MOTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND CONGEALING CELLS WITHIN A HIGH-PW
ENVIRONMENT, THUS POCKETS OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. WPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR NE
HALF TUE.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD FAVORED THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SE INTO, IF NOT FULLY THROUGH, NC, WED
AND WED NIGHT. BUT MORE RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
LESS-PHASED TROUGH, WITH ITS NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING E OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WED, WHILE THE SLOWER SOUTHERN
PORTION DRIFTS E OVER THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MISS VALLEY INTO W KY
AND W TN. THIS RESULTS IN A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS
MID-WEEK, AND A SURFACE FRONT THAT HOLDS NEAR OR N OF THE NC/VA
BORDER (ALTHOUGH THE PIEDMONT TROUGHING APPEARS ANCHORED IN PLACE).
WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW, POSSIBLE WARM MID LEVELS AND A DOWNTURN IN
PW, WE SHOULD SEE REDUCED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WED/THU, WITH JUST
WIDELY-SCATTERED, LATE-DAY GARDEN-VARIETY CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY
AND FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, PASSING BY TO OUR N BY LATE THU INTO
EARLY FRI. WHILE THIS MAY ACCELERATE OUR MID LEVEL FLOW (ESP ACROSS
OUR N) FRI, THE FLAT W-E RIDGING TO OUR S SHOULD STILL LIMIT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL NC, WITH FEW OTHER MECHANISMS TO
FORCE ASCENT, AND EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SPOTTY SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE STRENGTHENING BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ALLOW LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO
GRADUALLY DIG OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH STRENGTHENING NW FLOW
ALLOWING PERTURBATIONS TO DIVE SE INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE, CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BY
SAT/SUN.
REGARDING TEMPS, READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, PEAKING ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS HEAT WON'T BE NEARLY AS INTENSE OR
LONG-LIVED AS OUR MOST RECENT HEAT WAVE. BUT WE DO HAVE PATCHES OF
EXTREME LEVELS OF EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK POPPING UP BY FRI OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AT OR JUST
OVER 105F, SO SMALL AREAS OF HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...
IN A VERY SIMILAR AND PERSISTENT PATTERN AS SUNDAY, SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND CELL
MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD CNTL NC THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN POINT/SITE
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN PROB30 AND TEMPO RANGE, WITH A HEDGE TOWARD THE
LATTER REFLECTED AGAIN WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LIGHT SSWLY SURFACE WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A SMALL RISK OF
STRATUS AND MIST/FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS BEFOREHAND.
DIURNAL CUMULUS ON TUE MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP WITH BASES IN MVFR
RANGE, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF CEILINGS AT FAY AND
RWI, OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN RECENT
DAYS.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
RESULT AGAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK, AS A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVERSPREAD A PERSISTENT, APPALACHIAN-LEE/PIEDMONT
SURFACE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A BACKDOOR FRONT LIKELY TO SETTLE INTO
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MORNING STRATUS/MIST MAY ALSO RESULT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
CONVECTIVE RAIN THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ024-
025-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...MWS/GH
AVIATION...MWS
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