690
FXUS62 KRAH 251701
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE
OVER THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE ALL OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC.
* A PROLONGED AND DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE NC COAST
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TODAY AND BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER
GA/SC BY SAT MORNING. UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 1000-850MB
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND RAISE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 M AND SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MID 90S IN MOST PLACES BY THIS AFTERNOON, UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT
OF THE LOW 70S AND SUPPORT HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT TO NOW INCLUDE ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF US-1 AND ALL OF
THE TRIANGLE. THIS AREA IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THAT HEAT
INDICES OF AT LEAST 103, MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4), AND
HIGH WBGT (>86 DEGREES), IS HIGHEST AND WILL MAKE HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS MORE PROBABLE. THIS WILL ONLY BE THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXPECTED HEAT WAVE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST AS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE US-
64 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE THE 00Z HREF AND 18Z REFS HIGHLIGHT THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H5 ANTICYCLONE.
MAINTENANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
RESULT IN MOSTLY A HIT-OR-MISS VARIETY AND MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
RESPECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF AS TEMPERATURES ONLY
DIP DOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT-OR-
ABOVE THE MID/UPPER 70S WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
* AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT,
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. CONTINUED GRADUAL
MODIFICATION OF THE PRE-EXISTING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER 2-4
DEGREE RISE IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WHILE DEW POINTS STRUGGLE
TO MIX OUT OF THE LOW/MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. HOT TEMPERATURES,
HIGH HUMIDITY, LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF, AND THE BEGINNING OF A
PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL SUPPORT A MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES FOR ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
TO BETTER CAPTURE THIS THREAT DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME, AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE ANOMALOUS HEAT AND COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (AROUND OR JUST BELOW 110), THE
EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THIS HEAT JUSTIFY ITS ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
HEAT REMAINS THE LARGEST WEATHER-RELATED KILLER YEAR AFTER YEAR, AND
BY A LARGE MARGIN (HEAT FATALITIES ACCOUNT FOR AN AVERAGE OF 238
DEATHS PER YEAR, ROLLING 30 YEAR AVERAGE, WITH THE NEXT CLOSEST
BEING FLOODING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR AN AVERAGE OF 113 FATALITIES PER
YEAR).
TO GREATLY REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF THIS LEVEL AND DURATION OF
DANGEROUS HEAT, AVOID DIRECT SUNLIGHT DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE
DAY, TAKE BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOMS OFTEN, STAY WELL HYDRATED,
AND KNOW THE INITIAL SIGNS OF HEAT-ILLNESS ONSET AND TAKE
PREVENTATIVE ACTION IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS DURING
THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, CONSIDER MOVING THEM INSIDE IF
POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED DUE TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
ANY REMNANT MCV'S FROM PRIOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
*LONG-DURATION HEAT WAVE TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK
AN EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE(+2 TO +2.5
SD) CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT,
PROLONGED. AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING HEAT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES: AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 95 TO 100
DEGREES F, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLE REACHING THE LOWER 100S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS: NIGHTS WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, REMAINING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
HEAT INDICES: COMBINED WITH BL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID AND
UPPER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOWER 100S WEST TO
NEAR 112 F ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.
HEAT RISK: GIVEN THE LONG-DURATION NATURE OF THE HEAT AND MINIMAL
OVERNIGHT RELIEF, A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC IS FORECAST TO BE
UNDER A CATEGORY 4-EXTREME HEAT RISK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
IMPACTS: SUCH A LONG DURATION HEAT WAVE THAT LAST MULTIPLE DAYS IN A
ROW, OFTEN POSE AN ELEVATED HEALTH RISK. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY, DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH IMPACTS.
PLAN AHEAD TO LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND PERFORM
WELLNESS CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY AND INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING SYSTEMS.
RAIN CHANCES: CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT DISTURBANCES OR MCVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW
ALOFT--OFTEN DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE IN GUIDANCE AT LONGER LEAD TIMES
--COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
BY LATE WEEK, THERE'S INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL US, WHICH MAY ALLOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TO BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND A BREAK FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF FAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS REACHING THE AIRPORT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAF. A
DENSE AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING OVER INT/GSO, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA HAS REMAINED CONTAINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISPERSE AT SUNSET, AND WITH NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST, DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KT.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT
ANY TERMINAL. ANY TERMINAL THAT DOES RECEIVE PRECIPITATION WOULD
THEN HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF STRATUS/FOG THE NEXT MORNING DUE TO
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT LOCALLY.
CLIMATE
ABNORMALLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER STARTING TODAY AND PERSIST WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS
HEAT DURING THE DAYTIME WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF. HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK WITH RECORDS IN THE
LOW/MID 100S, BUT THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE SATURDAY. LONG-DURATION
ABNORMALLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK DAILY
RECORDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 26 (SATURDAY):
KGSO: 102/1914
KRDU: 101/2005
KFAY: 104/1940
JULY 27 (SUNDAY):
KGSO: 104/1914
KRDU: 104/1940
KFAY: 106/1940
JULY 28 (MONDAY):
KGSO: 100/1952
KRDU: 104/1952
KFAY: 105/1940
JULY 29 (TUESDAY):
KGSO: 101/1952
KRDU: 104/2011
KFAY: 103/2011
JULY 30 (WEDNESDAY):
KGSO: 100/1915
KRDU: 101/1953
KFAY: 105/2011
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 25 (FRIDAY):
KGSO: 78/2010
KRDU: 80/2010
KFAY: 78/2016
JULY 26 (SATURDAY):
KGSO: 76/2016
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 80/2005
JULY 27 (SUNDAY):
KGSO: 76/2005
KRDU: 78/1940
KFAY: 79/2016
JULY 28 (MONDAY):
KGSO: 74/2023
KRDU: 77/2023
KFAY: 79/2016
JULY 29 (TUESDAY):
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 78/2023
KFAY: 79/2002
JULY 30 (WEDNESDAY):
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/1931
KFAY: 79/2002
JULY 31 (THURSDAY):
KGSO: 75/1917
KRDU: 77/2020
KFAY: 78/1941
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE...RAH
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