690  
FXUS62 KRAH 251701  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AND RESULT IN A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE  
OVER THE REGION.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...  
 
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE ALL OF THE EASTERN  
PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC.  
 
* A PROLONGED AND DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.  
 
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE NC COAST  
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TODAY AND BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER  
GA/SC BY SAT MORNING. UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 1000-850MB  
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND RAISE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES  
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 M AND SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE  
MID 90S IN MOST PLACES BY THIS AFTERNOON, UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN  
SPOTS. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT  
OF THE LOW 70S AND SUPPORT HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO  
INCLUDE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN  
PIEDMONT TO NOW INCLUDE ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF US-1 AND ALL OF  
THE TRIANGLE. THIS AREA IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THAT HEAT  
INDICES OF AT LEAST 103, MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4), AND  
HIGH WBGT (>86 DEGREES), IS HIGHEST AND WILL MAKE HEAT RELATED  
ILLNESS MORE PROBABLE. THIS WILL ONLY BE THE BEGINNING OF THE  
EXPECTED HEAT WAVE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST AS  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND  
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON.  
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE US-  
64 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE THE 00Z HREF AND 18Z REFS HIGHLIGHT THE  
GREATEST INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH  
TO OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H5 ANTICYCLONE.  
MAINTENANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIFFICULT AND  
RESULT IN MOSTLY A HIT-OR-MISS VARIETY AND MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG  
RESPECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  
 
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF AS TEMPERATURES ONLY  
DIP DOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT-OR-  
ABOVE THE MID/UPPER 70S WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...  
 
* AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT,  
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC FROM SATURDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN  
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. CONTINUED GRADUAL  
MODIFICATION OF THE PRE-EXISTING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER 2-4  
DEGREE RISE IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WHILE DEW POINTS STRUGGLE  
TO MIX OUT OF THE LOW/MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. HOT TEMPERATURES,  
HIGH HUMIDITY, LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF, AND THE BEGINNING OF A  
PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL SUPPORT A MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK FOR HEAT-  
RELATED ILLNESSES FOR ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.  
TO BETTER CAPTURE THIS THREAT DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME, AN  
EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE ANOMALOUS HEAT AND COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF  
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR  
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (AROUND OR JUST BELOW 110), THE  
EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THIS HEAT JUSTIFY ITS ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.  
HEAT REMAINS THE LARGEST WEATHER-RELATED KILLER YEAR AFTER YEAR, AND  
BY A LARGE MARGIN (HEAT FATALITIES ACCOUNT FOR AN AVERAGE OF 238  
DEATHS PER YEAR, ROLLING 30 YEAR AVERAGE, WITH THE NEXT CLOSEST  
BEING FLOODING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR AN AVERAGE OF 113 FATALITIES PER  
YEAR).  
 
TO GREATLY REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF THIS LEVEL AND DURATION OF  
DANGEROUS HEAT, AVOID DIRECT SUNLIGHT DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE  
DAY, TAKE BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOMS OFTEN, STAY WELL HYDRATED,  
AND KNOW THE INITIAL SIGNS OF HEAT-ILLNESS ONSET AND TAKE  
PREVENTATIVE ACTION IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS DURING  
THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, CONSIDER MOVING THEM INSIDE IF  
POSSIBLE.  
 
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE  
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED DUE TO CLOSE  
PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE  
ANY REMNANT MCV'S FROM PRIOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS INTO  
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
 
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...  
 
*LONG-DURATION HEAT WAVE TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE  
NEXT WEEK  
 
AN EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE(+2 TO +2.5  
SD) CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD  
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT,  
PROLONGED. AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING HEAT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL  
NC.  
 
HIGHS TEMPERATURES: AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 95 TO 100  
DEGREES F, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLE REACHING THE LOWER 100S.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS: NIGHTS WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, REMAINING IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.  
 
HEAT INDICES: COMBINED WITH BL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID AND  
UPPER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOWER 100S WEST TO  
NEAR 112 F ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  
 
HEAT RISK: GIVEN THE LONG-DURATION NATURE OF THE HEAT AND MINIMAL  
OVERNIGHT RELIEF, A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC IS FORECAST TO BE  
UNDER A CATEGORY 4-EXTREME HEAT RISK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
IMPACTS: SUCH A LONG DURATION HEAT WAVE THAT LAST MULTIPLE DAYS IN A  
ROW, OFTEN POSE AN ELEVATED HEALTH RISK. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS  
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY, DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH IMPACTS.  
PLAN AHEAD TO LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND PERFORM  
WELLNESS CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY AND INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT ADEQUATE  
COOLING SYSTEMS.  
 
RAIN CHANCES: CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT DISTURBANCES OR MCVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW  
ALOFT--OFTEN DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE IN GUIDANCE AT LONGER LEAD TIMES  
--COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  
 
BY LATE WEEK, THERE'S INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A WESTWARD  
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL US, WHICH MAY ALLOW A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TO BRING  
A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND A BREAK FROM THE  
OPPRESSIVE HEAT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...  
 
TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF FAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT  
ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS REACHING THE AIRPORT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS  
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAF. A  
DENSE AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING OVER INT/GSO, BUT ANY  
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA HAS REMAINED CONTAINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.  
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISPERSE AT SUNSET, AND WITH NO RAIN IN THE  
FORECAST, DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIND  
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT  
ANY TERMINAL. ANY TERMINAL THAT DOES RECEIVE PRECIPITATION WOULD  
THEN HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF STRATUS/FOG THE NEXT MORNING DUE TO  
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT LOCALLY.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
ABNORMALLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER STARTING TODAY AND PERSIST WELL  
INTO NEXT WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS  
HEAT DURING THE DAYTIME WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF. HIGH  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK WITH RECORDS IN THE  
LOW/MID 100S, BUT THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE SATURDAY. LONG-DURATION  
ABNORMALLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK DAILY  
RECORDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:  
 
JULY 26 (SATURDAY):  
KGSO: 102/1914  
KRDU: 101/2005  
KFAY: 104/1940  
 
JULY 27 (SUNDAY):  
KGSO: 104/1914  
KRDU: 104/1940  
KFAY: 106/1940  
 
JULY 28 (MONDAY):  
KGSO: 100/1952  
KRDU: 104/1952  
KFAY: 105/1940  
 
JULY 29 (TUESDAY):  
KGSO: 101/1952  
KRDU: 104/2011  
KFAY: 103/2011  
 
JULY 30 (WEDNESDAY):  
KGSO: 100/1915  
KRDU: 101/1953  
KFAY: 105/2011  
 
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:  
 
JULY 25 (FRIDAY):  
KGSO: 78/2010  
KRDU: 80/2010  
KFAY: 78/2016  
 
JULY 26 (SATURDAY):  
KGSO: 76/2016  
KRDU: 77/2010  
KFAY: 80/2005  
 
JULY 27 (SUNDAY):  
KGSO: 76/2005  
KRDU: 78/1940  
KFAY: 79/2016  
 
JULY 28 (MONDAY):  
KGSO: 74/2023  
KRDU: 77/2023  
KFAY: 79/2016  
 
JULY 29 (TUESDAY):  
KGSO: 75/2010  
KRDU: 78/2023  
KFAY: 79/2002  
 
JULY 30 (WEDNESDAY):  
KGSO: 77/2011  
KRDU: 78/1931  
KFAY: 79/2002  
 
JULY 31 (THURSDAY):  
KGSO: 75/1917  
KRDU: 77/2020  
KFAY: 78/1941  
 
 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.  
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR  
NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...SWIGGETT  
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT  
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT  
LONG TERM...CBL  
AVIATION...GREEN  
CLIMATE...RAH  
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