550
FXUS62 KRAH 301807
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...
1) MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY,
THEN LESS SO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
A FIELD OF CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN, WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE REASONING BEHIND THE CLEAR SKIES IN THE
CENTRAL NC VERSUS THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS IS
LARGELY DUE TO A DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE COASTAL PLAIN, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 70S, BUT IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS THE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S. THOSE INCREASED
DEWPOINTS ARE HELPING PARCELS OVERCOME CAPPING INVERSIONS BOTH AT
850MB AND 700MB AS SEEN ON RAP SOUNDINGS. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE
CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE, LIMITING THE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUMULUS. THE
CAPPING INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY,
LIMITING CHANCES OF CONVECTION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS ARE LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, MOST OF
WHICH ARE BEING ADVECTED TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATING AS THEY
DESCEND INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
THAT THESE SHOWERS REACH FAR WESTERN FORSYTH CO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THEM DISSIPATING.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY, THEN LESS SO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER
THE COMING DAYS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGHEST HEIGHTS WILL EVENTUALLY PARK
ACROSS VA/KY/MD LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING
ACROSS NC. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF VERY LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY
WHICH DAY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE HOTTEST, BUT REGARDLESS
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL
DAYS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS A
NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY (AND LIKELY IMPACTS) WILL
BE FOCUSED ON THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.
EVENTUALLY (LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY) THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AND MOVE OFFSHORE, WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME/UNSETTLED
PATTERN EMERGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A RETURN OF
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. WHILE
THERE ARE A FEW LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE RETURN
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY (MORE THAN 70-80 PERCENT) OF TODAY'S SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF INCREASED
HUMIDITY THROUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1249 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM INT/GSO AND SHOULD BE OF NO
IMPACT. WHAT BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE TRIAD SITES
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEGMANN/LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
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