646
FXUS62 KRAH 010653
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
SNOWFALL SLOWLY COMING TO AN END INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FALLING MOSTLY AS RAIN,
THOUGH A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
1) BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER FRESH SNOW COVER. BLACK ICE
WILL BE A THREAT TONIGHT
2) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
3) A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT, FALL
MOSTLY AS RAIN, ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER FRESH SNOW
COVER. BLACK ICE WILL BE A THREAT TONIGHT
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP AND VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE INTO
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. AS IT DOES SO, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHEAR
OUT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEEP LIFT AND 850-700 MB FGEN TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME. RADAR RETURNS COMBINED WITH WEBCAMS SHOWED THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN STARTING TO CLEAR OUT IN TERMS
OF SNOW, WITH JUST ISOLATED REPORTS OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WAS PERSISTENT SOUTH OF US-64 AND ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN ALONG I-95.
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE, BUT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MAY EXIST OVER SOUTHERN SAMPSON UNTIL 8 AM. AS A RESULT,
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 7 AM
FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF CENTRAL NC.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST EVEN
AFTER THE SNOW HAS ENDED. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING PERSISTS UNTIL 10
AM, WHERE WIND CHILLS INTO MID-MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
BELOW WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AND TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID TEENS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
BUT FRESH SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT OUR HIGHS. WE UNDERCUT HIGHS,
DESPITE NW DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR
30 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS.
TONIGHT, WEAK RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS SPREADS EAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
AND THAT SHOULD FAVOR WINDS GOING LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. WITH A FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, IN LINE WITH THE
COLDER EC MOS GUIDANCE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO. ALTHOUGH
THERE WON'T BE MUCH MELTING TODAY, THE SUN WILL HELP SOMEWHAT.
REFREEZING OF SLUSH WILL WARRANT THE THREAT OF BLACK ICE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR SPS MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW/MID 40S,
THESE READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, THEN REBOUND
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS WEEK WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS AND 20S
TO START THE WEEK, MID 30S ON WEDNESDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP
TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT, FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN, ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXITING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. TIMING AMONG THE GFS/GEFS/EC/ECENS IS MUCH
MORE CONSISTENT WITH TODAY'S 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AT PRECIP ONSET,
BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RISES
ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIP CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. EVEN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF IS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BASED ON THIS
MORNING'S GUIDANCE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST-
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION TAKES HOLD, THE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE SHOULD
SLIP BELOW FREEZING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES THAT MIX IN AS
PRECIP IS EXITING THE AREA BUT DRY AIR CHASING THE PRECIP WOULD
SUGGEST A LIMITED THREAT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY EVENING IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND TRIAD AREAS, INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE AREA WITH BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN BEGINNING TO FADE. SNOW SHOULD END IN
THE TRIANGLE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z WITH THE SNOW ENDING A LITTLE
LATER BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AT KFAY AND KRWI. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY DAYBREAK AT ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES IN
THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT, BRIEFLY RELAX TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN PICK UP
WITH MIXING AND COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AT KRDU,
KFAY, AND KRWI. AS WINDS INTERMITTENTLY WEAKEN, THERE COULD BE SOME
LLWS CONCERNS, WITH 35-40 KTS AT 2KFT (UP TO 50 KTS AT 2KFT OVER
KRWI FOR A FEW HOURS). WINDS AND WIND GUSTS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 1: KGSO:-4/1936, KRDU: 8/1981, KFAY: 1/1936
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
FEBRUARY 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-
027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/KREN
AVIATION...BLAES
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