805
FXUS62 KRAH 061840
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
* A HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
* OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
1) ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AN INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WOULD BE THE ONLY HAZARD.
2) AREAS OF FOG AND VERY LOW OVERCAST WILL DEVELOP/ADVECT INLAND AND
ACROSS THE ERN AND CNTL CAROLINAS EACH MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
4) VERY WARM WITH NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AN INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WOULD BE THE ONLY HAZARD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POCKETS OF BLOSSOMING CUMULUS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THESE LOCALIZED AREAS ARE LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY A PAIR
OF REMNANT/WEAKENING MCV'S FROM PRIOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHEASTERN AL YESTERDAY. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS NC. POINT SOUNDINGS IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES SHOW A COOLING/MOISTENING WITHING THE
800-700MB LAYER WHICH EFFECTIVELY ERODES TO LOWEST OF TWO
INVERSIONS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW
AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BACKGROUND WEAK SYNOPTIC
DESCENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
MAKE SUSTAINED CONVECTION DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM DEPTH AND REDUCE MIXED PHASE PRODUCTION AND CHARGE
SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION, BUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER SUNSET WILL CEASE THE PRODUCTION
OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION, BUT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS RAP SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHTING 500-1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING. BEST CHANCES MAY
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, WHERE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT FROM ANY
UPSTREAM MCVS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS ATOP A BACKDOOR
FRONT NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AREAS OF FOG AND VERY LOW OVERCAST WILL DEVELOP/ADVECT INLAND AND
ACROSS THE ERN AND CNTL CAROLINAS EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ONSHORE FLOW, AROUND A PERSISTENT SUB-TROPICAL HIGH NEAR BERMUDA,
WILL DIRECT UNSEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES AND IN A PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR THE INLAND
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF FOG AND LOW OVERCAST INTO SRN THROUGH ERN
NC EACH MORNING. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY RESULT, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SRN COASTAL PLAIN, STEADY SSWLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERSISTENT
DENSE FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SERIES EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN NC DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE SOME BL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA, VERY WEAK BL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS, LET ALONE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES (ALBEIT LOW) SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. WHATEVER CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD AND POPS WILL SHOW A MARKED GRADIENT OF 30-40 POPS IN THE
WEST TO NEAR 0 IN THE EAST. THIS OVERALL THEME IS MIRRORED TO A
LARGE EXTENT BY THE 06.00Z AND 06.12Z RUNS OF THE HREF.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY, ANOTHER WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL NC, ENTERING
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KTS. NATURALLY THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH PEAK COVERAGE
FORECAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE
THE PERIOD SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS RANGING FROM 70-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND SHOWERS COULD EASILY LINGER INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE THE PATTERN WILL QUIET DOWN A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BRING A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN
THE WEEK. MEANWHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP
A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE TIMING OF HOW THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT IS THE GREATEST SOURCE
OF UNCERTAINTY IN TODAY'S 00Z LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
VERY WARM WITH NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
AN ANOMALOUS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, RUNNING 15–20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN 20–25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING COOLER AIR. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S ON THURSDAY, THEN MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY FRIDAY, RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 125 PM FRIDAY...
LOW-VFR CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC
WITH HIGHLY LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NC AND CENTRAL
SC. AN ISOLATED SHOWER APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, COASTAL VERY LOW OVERCAST
ADVECTING INLAND AND POCKETS OF RADIATION FOG WILL ALL PLAY A ROLE
TO SOME DEGREE TONIGHT. 18Z TAFS ARE A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD AND
SLIGHTLY OPTIMISTIC APPROACH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT FAY AND RWI WHERE PERSISTENCE
FORECAST CONTINUES. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
WILL MAKE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT INT, GSO, AND RDU AS
DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE SAT MORNING.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTL CAROLINAS EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
AT FAY AND RWI AND WITH GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT ON SAT. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SETTLE INTO CNTL NC, WITH AN ASSOCIATED LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION AND BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, ON SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6: KGSO: 78/2022 KRDU: 82/1967 KFAY: 86/1918
MARCH 7: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 85/1974 KFAY: 84/1961
MARCH 8: KGSO: 83/2000 KRDU: 87/1974 KFAY: 87/1974
MARCH 9: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 84/2009 KFAY: 87/1974
MARCH 10: KGSO: 78/2016 KRDU: 81/1974 KFAY: 84/1974
MARCH 11: KGSO: 86/1967 KRDU: 85/1925 KFAY: 87/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6: KGSO: 64/1967 KRDU: 64/1967 KFAY: 65/1961
MARCH 7: KGSO: 63/1956 KRDU: 64/1956 KFAY: 65/1961
MARCH 8: KGSO: 57/1946 KRDU: 60/1946 KFAY: 63/1961
MARCH 9: KGSO: 61/1921 KRDU: 61/1921 KFAY: 62/1980
MARCH 10: KGSO: 58/2016 KRDU: 57/2020 KFAY: 65/1964
MARCH 11: KGSO: 62/2016 KRDU: 63/2016 KFAY: 63/2016
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/MWS/LEINS/CA
AVIATION...AS/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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