501
FXUS62 KRAH 251641
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1242 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1242 PM SUNDAY...
1) A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1242 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK, THEN DRIFT OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. LARGELY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. A MOISTURE-STARVED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS FAVORED LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND, WHERE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE THE NORM. A FEW SPOTS
COULD TOUCH 80 DEGREES GIVEN THE EXPECTED RISE IN LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, THEY ARE SLIM AT BEST. SOME ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE NEXT SUNDAY TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
A SYSTEM BUILDING EAST FROM THE TN VALLEY. BUT THEN, OTHER SOLUTIONS
KEEP A RIDGE WELL IN PLACE AND SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
STAGE, WE SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1242 PM SUNDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
TERMINALS OF 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET, LEADING
TO LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG MONDAY MORNING. THE
12Z HREF/REFS CONTINUE TO PAINT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, LIKELY A
RESULT OF MORE FAVORABLE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE
APPEARS AT RWI, BUT COULD SECONDARILY IMPACT RDU BRIEFLY. FOR NOW,
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF MVFR AT RDU AND A PERIOD OF IFR AT RWI.
OUTLOOK: A REINFORCING, MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NC TUE NIGHT, WITH FOLLOWING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN
A RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS WED AND THU MORNING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
OTHERWISE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN
AVIATION...KREN/MWS
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