129
FXUS62 KRAH 281607
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1210 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LOWERED THE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON FROM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW PATTERN AND GOOD
MIXING EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 125 AM MONDAY...
1) OVERALL DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 125 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... OVERALL DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOT UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDINESS THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE N-E PORTIONS OF HTE AREA, BUT
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS AROUND 80 CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL CONTINUE LATE WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. HIGHS OF 85-90 CAN BE EXPECTED THU-FRI.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER,
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF,
WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS KEEPING US
MAINLY DRY UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, BRINGS
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, THOUGH IT CONTINUES TO BE
AN EARLY WET OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLES. WE HAVE POPS RAMPING
UP FROM AROUND 20-30% ON FRIDAY TO 30-40% ON SATURDAY AND 40-50% ON
SUNDAY. ONE LAST VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S.
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH MORE SEASONABLE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S, WITH SOME 60S WHEN/IF RAIN/SHOWERS ARRIVE BY SUNDAY IN THE NW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS BASED AT 6K-8KFT PIVOTING AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER AND JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND INTO TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NE SITES (RDU/RWI), BUT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, UNDER 10 KTS, VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN MAINLY FROM THE N OR NE TUE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH AT
LEAST FRI, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRI MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE LATE FRI, BUT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER THE WEEKEND, STARTING SAT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 30:
KGSO: 89/1954
KRDU: 89/1954
OCTOBER 1:
KGSO: 90/1986
KRDU: 90/1986
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
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