114
FXUS62 KRAH 180104
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
900 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUED OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, THERE IS WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WERE
FALLING RAPIDLY IN THE DRY AIR (DEW POINTS 30S AND 40S NW TO SE).
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AT 900 PM WERE IN THE MID 40S ALREADY IN THE
COLDER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS RANGING INTO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY YIELD LOWS IN
THE 35-40 RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER
OUTLOOK OVER THE COLDER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. SEE
NO NEED TO CHANGE ANYTHING WITH THIS FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER SUN-FILLED DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. THE LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID SOUTH/N GULF STATES MON MORNING WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTWARD DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON
NIGHT, WHILE THE COLD MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC DRIFTS ESE TO NEW
BRUNSWICK, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL LESSENING OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER NC. THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHLY DRY AND STABLE, WITH EVEN A FEW
FLAT CU LOOKING UNLIKELY. MORNING THICKNESSES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW
NORMAL BUT 8-10 M HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING, AND WITH THE MODERATION
OF AIR MASS AND STRONG INSOLATION, HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL,
69-75. CLEAR MON NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING
BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH, RESULTING IN LOWS OF 39-48. -GIH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE REGION, A RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MS VALLEY, OVER THE
APPALACHIANS THEN THROUGH THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST US AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUE/TUE NIGHT, RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WED/WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY, MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY A
STRONGER LOW SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA.
THE FORMER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY
THE STRONGER LOW TO THE NORTH, WITH SOME OF THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND MULTIPLE OTHER DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
CLIPPING THE AREA THU, THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AS THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
CENTRAL NC THU/THU NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE MTNS AND THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT/FRI. THERE IS STILL
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXACTLY
HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH IT, BUT FOR NOW EXPECT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES THU AND THU NIGHT WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE TEMPS ON FRI WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EAST
COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 740 PM SUNDAY...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10KT AND GUST
TO 15KT AT TIMES ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SMITH
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