196
FXUS62 KRAH 051047
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
647 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF
FORECAST.
* INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS AND LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
* INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
1) RECENT GREEN-UP IN FUELS WILL HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RECENT GREEN-UP IN FUELS WILL HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN THE SUB-990MB SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY
AND LINGERING BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BECOME FREQUENT ACROSS THE AREA,
STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MOMENTUM AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER SUGGESTS INFREQUENT GUSTS OF AROUND 35 MPH CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO MAINLY THE COASTAL
PLAIN AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD, BUT GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DELAYED MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
PRIMARILY DIRECTED INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 30% OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MAY
DROP AS LOW AS LOW/MID 20S BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF IFD
METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA (RH < 30% AND GUSTS > 25 MPH) TO BE MET
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. DESPITE THESE
METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT,
COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS YESTERDAY REPORTED THAT FUELS HAVE
GREENED UP SUFFICIENTLY TO REDUCE WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS.
A REMINDER: WHILE THE BURN BAN HAS BEEN LIFTED IN 81 COUNTIES
IN NC BY THE NCFS, IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FORSYTH, GUILFORD,
DAVIDSON, RANDOLPH, ALAMANCE, CHATHAM, STANLY, MONTGOMERY,
MOORE, ANSON, STOKES, ROCKINGHAM, DAVIE, ROWAN, IREDELL,
CABARRUS, GASTON, MECKLENBURG AND UNION COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MID-WEEK FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BE THE FIRST NOTICEABLE IMPACT, BECOMING GUSTY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE INITIAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE
CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT BEFORE EXPANDING
EASTWARD AS THE FRONT NEARS; BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE ENTIRE
CWA COULD SEE INFREQUENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY, BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 10-20
MPH WILL HOLD ON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF.
POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NW
PIEDMONT. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND SCATTERED, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. A SECOND, MORE POTENT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE LATER, BRINGING
A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS CENTERED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY; IF
ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS, SOME AFTERNOON STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT, SPANNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 0.25" AND
JUST OVER AN INCH, PROVIDING A BENEFICIAL SOAKING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY WITH MAX POPS AT 30%, BUT EXPECT MORE CLOUDS
THAN RAIN. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST EXPECT
CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY,
THEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. OVER THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER NC.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING (20
TO 30 KTS) WITH MODERATE LOW-LVL TURBULENCE EXPECTED AROUND THE
TRIAD TERMINALS, GIVEN SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE. FAIR WEATHER CU
AROUND 5 TO 8 KFT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY
AROUND FAY AND RWI WHERE SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK: DECAYING STORMS FROM THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING LIGHT,
MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN, TO THE TRIAD TERMINALS EARLY WED
MORNING, BUT PREVAILING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND
CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS
AS A COLD FROM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/CA
AVIATION...AS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page