830
FXUS62 KRAH 211038
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LOCAL FORECAST. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...
1) THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
2) ANOTHER BRIEF HOT SPELL PEAKS MON, WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEND DEW POINTS INTO AT LEAST THE
MID-60S, IF NOT AROUND 70, BASED ON SOME GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1000-2000 MLCAPE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE MORE APT TO ERODE DUE
TO APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS. THE BELT OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL BACK CURRENTLY, THE SPC HAS ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN A MARGINAL RISK, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
JUST TO OUR NORTH,ED FLOW, BUT 20-25 KNOTS OF BULK SFC-500MB SHEAR
WILL HELP SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. DCAPE SHOULD ALSO BE RELATIVELY
HIGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHICH MAY FURTHER SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE
MERGING OF COLD POOLS AND A STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. SPC HAS EXPANDED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AI NWP CONVECTIVE HAZARD FORECASTS
FAVOR MOSTLY THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
ANY PRECEDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
WPC HAS WESTERN NC IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, BUT WITH
QPF HAVING DECREASED A BIT OVERALL AND AND AREA AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF
JUST 0.25-0.50", ANY MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED AND
LIKELY IN URBAN AREAS AROUND THE TRIAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ANOTHER BRIEF HOT SPELL PEAKS MON, WHEN HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F, MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SW FLOW RETURNS MON AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ESPECIALLY PROFOUND OR LONG-LASTING, MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC, INCLUDING FROM THE TRIANGLE REGION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST, ARE LIKELY TO SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100F. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
REACHES THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4), INDICATING ATYPICALLY
HIGH HEAT THAT COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES,
ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. PEOPLE NEEDING TO WORK OR
EXERCISE OUTDOORS MON SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND PLAN FOR FREQUENT
SHADE (OR AC) AND HYDRATION BREAKS. TEMPS ON TUE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY, BUT THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES JUST UNDER CRITICAL VALUES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MAINLY LIGHT SWLY
SURFACE WINDS MAY BECOME WEAKLY GUSTY INTO THE TEENS KTS AT TIMES
WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL YIELD A CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS AT
MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AROUND FAY, AND SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH
MAXIMUM COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT, MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY FROM FAY TO RWI.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933
JUNE 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLS
AVIATION...BLS
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