266
FXUS62 KRAH 261737
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
137 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCE ON SUNDAY IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST
DAY OF NOVEMBER COULD BRING SOME RAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER COULD BRING SOME RAIN.
A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF OCTOBER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE FORECAST TO
HOVER IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHERE SOME LOCALES COULD RISE TO AROUND
80 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT,
SANDHILLS, AND COASTAL PLAIN.
RAIN CHANCES COULD ARRIVES AS EARLY AS THE START OF NOVEMBER, DURING
THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO
SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE, PRESENTLY OUT OVER THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC, REACHING THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST US EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY. THE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE IS MUCH
DRIER, SHOWING A FLATTER QUASI-ZONAL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH,
WHILE SOME GEFS/GFS MEMBERS ARE WETTER WITH A MORE DEVELOPED WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE. AT THIS STAGE, CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS LOW. IF THIS TRENDS DRY, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE WOULD HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. OVERALL LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY, POTENTIALLY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY, LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. IF ANY
FOG DOES DEVELOP, THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE RWI.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG LOOKS TO COME WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN
AVIATION...LH
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