808  
FXUS62 KRAH 180128  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
930 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH  
TONIGHT, THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES CROSSING SOUTHERN NC  
THIS EVENING. VERY DRY AIR CONTINUED TO BE LOCATED IN THE MID AND  
UPPER LEVELS WITH ESSENTIALLY VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  
THERE WERE A FEW CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF  
COUNTIES, WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE FAR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THERE. SKIES ON AVERAGE WERE PARTLY CLOUDY  
EXCEPT MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. THE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING  
JUST ABOUT ON TARGET FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS PERSIST, MOSTLY IN THE 4K-10K  
FT RANGE, WITH THICKER MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POISED TO STREAM  
ACROSS S AND W SECTIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BUT GOES LAYER  
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT, APART FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOT OF CLOUDS,  
THE COLUMN IS RATHER DRY IN THE UPPER LEVELS, ESP OVER OUR N AND NE  
SECTIONS. THE LARGE UPPER LOW NOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S MAINE  
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT,  
KEEPING A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NC, ALTHOUGH ANY FORCING FOR  
ASCENT WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE MINOR TO ABSENT. ONE SMALL WAVE  
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING BATCH OF CLOUDS,  
WILL LARGELY PASS TO OUR S THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,  
WHILE A SECOND WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS  
LATE TONIGHT. THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE A PATCHWORK,  
AND WITH MINIMAL HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NO TRIGGER TO PROMPT LIFT  
(INCLUDING CURRENT SUB-200 J/KG CAPE), EXPECT LARGELY DRY WEATHER  
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A QUICK SPOTTY SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS  
THE FAR W AND FAR S THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NE WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY  
UNDER 12 MPH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING  
LIGHT/VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S, WITH  
SOME UPPER 50S IN LOW AND RURAL AREAS. -GIH  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
THE UPPER-LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL EJECT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY  
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OH  
VALLEY. THIS WILL SWITCH FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM ZONAL  
DURING THE DAY, TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH THE STALLED  
FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AL/MS/GA. THE HIGH WILL  
PUSH EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND SHIFT SURFACE FLOW  
TO MORE E/SE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TO START THE  
DAY, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
S AND NW PIEDMONT AS A SURGE OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE  
REGION AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. PRECIP CHANCES  
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT  
AS AN UPPER-WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION  
OF A WEAK UPPER JET MOVES IN ALOFT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED  
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE LOW  
80S NW TO MID 80S E. LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER, RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
WET WEATHER AND HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK  
INTO MID-NEXT WEEK...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIG FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY  
INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN  
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERALL  
TROUGHING REMAINING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SURFACE FRONT  
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEK WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS  
BY THIS WEEKEND, AND STALL AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY/MID-  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ENHANCED  
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING  
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY, THE STALLED  
SURFACE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS  
THE REGION, OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND THE EMBEDDED WAVES  
ALOFT. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY  
AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR  
2 INCHES BOTH DAYS. AS OF NOW, WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL  
NC IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE  
ENVIRONMENT, THIS MAY EXPAND TO ALL AREAS OF CENTRAL NC WITH FURTHER  
UPDATES.  
 
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST,  
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS  
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE  
IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF  
CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES ON REMAINING  
DAYS. LOWS WILL REMAIN MORE MILD, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW  
70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MULTI-LAYERED VFR  
CLOUDINESS CAN EXPECTED.  
 
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRI  
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE.  
THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH NC  
FROM FRI THROUGH SAT, IN TANDEM WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD BASES WILL THICKEN AND LOWER  
STARTING MIDDAY FRI. SEVERAL HOURS OF HIGH RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND  
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FROM  
LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE  
LATE SAT THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN/MON. -GIH  
 

 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KREN  
NEAR TERM...PWB/HARTFIELD  
SHORT TERM...JJT  
LONG TERM...JJT  
AVIATION...PWB/HARTFIELD  
 
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