030
FXUS62 KRAH 091618
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1218 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN SHIFTING MORE TOWARD SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1218 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES, WITH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST.
2) MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN (FLASH FLOODING) ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1218 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES,
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST.
CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A PATTERN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM,
MOIST AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S, RISING TO THE LOW/MID 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS EACH DAY, HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST
ON FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 100S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR
TO DROP TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH, WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MID-
WEEK REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
2) MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN (FLASH FLOODING) ON SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGIONS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEK THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. WHILE POPS (SHOWERS/TSTMS)
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER, THE
HIGHEST POPS AND THUS BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAY 4 ERO INDICATES A MARGINAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC GIVEN ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND RISK FOR CELL TRAINING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LLWS OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD FOR AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: AFTER JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAINLY AT
FAY FRI MORNING, A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE INTO NC LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
DURING WHICH TIME A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL RESULT. AREAS OF IFR-
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO PROBABLY RESULT OVER THE PIEDMONT SAT
MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/LH
AVIATION...LEINS/MWS
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