502
FXUS62 KRAH 090716
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES, COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR TODAY HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
1) A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A NORTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AND A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY, RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, AND IMPACTS TO MOST OUTDOOR PLANS LIMITED.
2) A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, THE FIRST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SECOND ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A
NORTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AND
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY, RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT, AND IMPACTS TO MOST OUTDOOR PLANS LIMITED.
A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME A COUPLE OF DISJOINTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS GA/SC. WITH THE
BETTER, ALBEIT STILL WEAK, FORCING BYPASSING CENTRAL NC, ANY
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TODAY. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HINTS AT TWO PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST SOME LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE SOME SOME SPOTTY RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING. THERE'S A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS ANY PART OF THE AREA, BUT PRIMARILY THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT, COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDRED UNIT S OF CAPE AT BEST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS ENHANCED WITH
0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS, BUT WITH WEAK UPDRAFTS, THE RISK OF A
STRONG STORM IS RATHER LIMITED. THE RAIN CHANCES WITH BOTH SYSTEMS
ARE VERY LIMITED IN TERMS OF COVERAGE, PROBABILITY AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IF IT OCCURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MODERATING BY INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH
LOWS RANGING IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SECOND ON LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS SHOULD
BE LOW.
MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID-80S. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SE POSSIBLY ACHIEVING LIKELY POP
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
MAY SEE VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FLEETING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE IN THE SE. BUT EVEN THERE, QPF IS
ONLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE PIEDMONT. REGARDLESS, THE SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXIT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW TUESDAY. IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK EVEN LIGHTER AND IMPACTS
SHOULD AGAIN BE MINIMAL. WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED, WITH 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH A VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD AND AFTER DAYBREAK. AS MOISTURE INCREASES,
MAINLY VFR TO HIGH END MVFR BKN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME VERY PATCHY RAIN OR ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING THE KFAY TERMINAL WITH A LESSER
CHANCE AT THE KRDU AND KRWI TERMINALS. THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION
WILL END THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR STATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 16 KTS AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A RISK OF ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR TO IFR STRATUS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KRWI AND KFAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES/PWB
AVIATION...BLAES
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