860
FXUS62 KRAH 081732
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, HOTTEST
THU AND FRI.
2) GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU NIGHT WILL YIELD TO INCREASED
CONVECTION CHANCES FRI THROUGH SUN, HIGHEST ON SAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEK, HOTTEST THU AND FRI.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE AN
EASTWARD DRIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHILE CONTINUING TO EXTEND SW
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. AS DEEP 850-500 MB W-TO-E RIDGING SPANS JUST TO
OUR S THROUGH WED, CUTTING OFF THE GULF/ATLANTIC, THE RESULTING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP, AND DESPITE NEAR-
NORMAL THICKNESSES WED, THE INSOLATION WILL BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL CLIMB FURTHER AND PEAK
THU/FRI, WITH READINGS 15-20 M ABOVE NORMAL, SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 90S THU AND 90S TO AROUND 102 FRI,
AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD CURB THE HEAT A BIT,
ALTHOUGH THE GLANCING BLOW OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
BY TO OUR N WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
LIKELY MEAN A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES BY MON/TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU NIGHT WILL YIELD
TO INCREASED CONVECTION CHANCES FRI THROUGH SUN, HIGHEST ON SAT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW ACROSS CENTRAL NC
AS IT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP US WITHIN DEEPLY DRY AND STABLE AIR, WITH LOW PWS AND
NO POPS. THE 925-850 MB RIDGING STRETCHING FROM OK/TX EAST TO OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INFLUX AND KEEP MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THU,
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SURGE OF 1.5"+ PW INTO SE NC THU MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A FEW LATE-DAY SEA-BREEZE STORMS. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THEN BREAKS DOWN BY THU AS A BROAD AND POSITIVELY-TILTED
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES, WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA
FROM THE NW LATE THU. THIS WILL RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE
FLUX AREAWIDE AND A REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PW BY FRI. WITH
THE INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW HELPING TO BOOST DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
AND RISING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOSTERING INCREASED DAYTIME CAPE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR FRI AND SAT IS ALSO INCREASING. WITH THE DIP IN THE
WESTERLIES REACHING DOWN CLOSER TO OUR LATITUDE AND RESULTING IN
PASSING OF MULTIPLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS OVER NC, THESE HIGHER
CONVECTION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUN, PARTICULARLY OVER OUR S AND
E, AS THE SURFACE FRONT SLOW THEN STALLS OVER OUR REGION. MODELS
PROJECT THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND DISSIPATE
BY SUN NIGHT/MON AS STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ONCE AGAIN FROM
THE MID SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS, SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP BACK
TO GENERALLY ISOLATED BY MON/TUE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
WED, AS ITS CENTER PUSHES SLOWLY E AND FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER MINIMAL, RESTRICTED TO SOME FLAT CU AND SCT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST. DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING FAIR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR TONIGHT, PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AT RWI TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE, THE FOG RISK IS LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FROM THE E OR NE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH AT LEAST THU, WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER, ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SE LATE THU. THEN, LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, THERE IS A RISK FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PRODUCING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN OUR SE (FAY). THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND RESULTING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INCREASES LATE
FRI AND REACHES A PEAK SAT INTO SUN, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NW AND STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
CLIMATE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THESE DAILY
RECORDS:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 13: KRDU: 94/1936
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 11: KGSO: 72/2007 KRDU: 75/1915 KFAY: 76/1925
SEPTEMBER 12: KGSO: 72/2019
SEPTEMBER 13: KGSO: 72/2019 KRDU: 74/2018
SEPTEMBER 14: KRDU: 73/2018 KFAY: 75/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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