085
FXUS62 KRAH 301756
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
156 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...
* THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, INITIALLY FOCUSED OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS BUT GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE PIEDMONT.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN EXTREMELY LIMITED FOR THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...
1) AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY. A STATEWIDE BURN
BAN REMAINS IN PLACE, WHICH PROHIBITS ALL OPEN OUTDOOR BURNING
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
2) EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
3) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY. A STATEWIDE BURN BAN
REMAINS IN PLACE, WHICH PROHIBITS ALL OPEN OUTDOOR BURNING UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS REMAIN VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND PAUCITY OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST 90 DAYS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY DRY FUELS AND TREE LITTER, AND MINIMUM RH
IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35- 40% ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TODAY,
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THESE FACTORS ALL
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD
TODAY, AND A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUE, THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER MAY PERSIST
GIVEN THAT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-25 MPH WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 5% HIGHER
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON, THIS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
RISK FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. ANOTHER INCREASE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST, AND IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED TO THE EAST OF NC. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES, THIS IS SEEN BY A RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID
70S THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW TO MID 80S ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL RETURN TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING FROM A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE INSTABILITY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO HAVE
THE LOWEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS FORMING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF RAIN EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE WEST
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE MOUNTAINS. WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM EACH AFTERNOON, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA
IS MAKING ANY DETAILS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CRITICAL INITIAL
6-9 HR WINDOW OF THE 18Z TAFS. SCT/BKN 3-6 KFT FAIR-WEATHER CU
AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AFTER SUNSET, WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MARGINAL LLWS AS A SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS AROUND
1,500 FT AND FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 35 KTS. MINIMAL VEERING IN
WIND DIRECTION AND MARGINAL LLWS MAGNITUDE PRECLUDES ITS
ADDITION IN THE 18Z TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVER WESTERN NC AND DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
PIEDMONT WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES (5-15% CHANCE), BUT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WED AND FRI (20-45%), WITH MINIMAL
COVERAGE ON THURS. PATCHY EARLY- MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT WED-FRI.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KGSO: 90/1910
KRDU: 89/1974
KFAY: 87/2010
APRIL 2:
KGSO: 87/2010
KRDU: 90/1967
KFAY: 90/1974
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KGSO: 63/2016
KRDU: 67/2016
KFAY: 67/2016
APRIL 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/LH
AVIATION...AS/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
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