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FXUS62 KRAH 122301
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
1) A POST FRONTAL REGION OF STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL NC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.
2) THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A POST FRONTAL REGION OF STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.
A MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH FELL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WIND GUSTS AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS RESULTED IN A GENEROUS SUPPLY OF
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED GUSTS
OF 50 MPH OR MORE WERE NOTED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES, ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH.
THE RAIN SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST AND EXIT CENTRAL NC BY 5PM
OR SO. RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAS ARRIVED IN THE TRIAD
AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH NIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES THAT FALL TO BETWEEN 1300 AND 1310M BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED MINS TONIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE
NBM WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS IN THE
UPPER 20S. -BLAES
KEY MESSAGE 2: THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
COME ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME MONDAY
FROM A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST WITH A LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY LATER, WITH THE PEAK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
ADDED A 15% RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY, THE
EQUIVALENT OF A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK. THIS THREAT LEVEL IS
USUALLY ONLY ISSUED ABOUT TWICE A YEAR IN OUR AREA THIS FAR OUT.
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG, VEERING WIND SHEAR, THIS SETUP
INDEED LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. -TG
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...
THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-
HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING, BECOMING CALM AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MORNING
ON FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER TO FAVOR
PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF, BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE AT FAY/RWI. ANY FOG WOULD DISPERSE BY 13Z
IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS PEAKING
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL BE
HIGHEST AT GSO/INT.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MAY PROMOTE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LLWS 00Z-08Z SAT IF WINDS DECOUPLE AT THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN A
RETURN FLOW PATTERN COULD RESULT IN SOME STRATUS ON SUNDAY, AS WELL
AS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES/GREEN
AVIATION...KREN/BLAES
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