850
FXUS62 KRAH 171032
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
632 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAFS.
* INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT APPEARS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
2) CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
3) ATYPICAL INCREASED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY OVERLAP WITH
CRITICALLY DRY, DROUGHT-CURED FUELS.
4) THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, DO NOT EXPECT
DROUGHT RELIEF UNTIL WE GET A PATTERN CHANGE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT APPEARS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (SUB 990 AT TIMES)
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB
TEMPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THURS. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS
HEAT ON THURS. A POTENTIAL FAILURE MODE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND/OR ANY TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THURS WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT TO
DEVELOP WHEN 20-22C 850MB TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA,
AND WOULD SUPPORT 2M TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100,
GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND LIMITED CONVECTION/OUTFLOW.
HEATRISK HIGHLIGHTS WIDESPREAD MAJOR CATEGORY IS LIKELY FOR THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN, INDICATING THAT
NOT ONLY IS THIS HEAT PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL, IT IS CORRELATED
WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT ILLNESSES AS NOTED BY HISTORICAL CDC
HEAT-HEALTH DATA, AND THIS HEAT COULD PRODUCE HEALTH IMPACTS ON
ALL POPULATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND
COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 90S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES. ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW, MODERATELY
STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES, AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS, BUT LACK OF MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER-LVLS SHOULD MITIGATE DCAPE AND LOW-LVL THETA-E
DIFFERENCES.
GIVEN THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE OF ANY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS, WHICH GIVEN 30-35
KTS OF CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR, WOULD BE POSSIBLE BUT HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ATYPICAL INCREASED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY OVERLAP WITH CRITICALLY
DRY, DROUGHT-CURED FUELS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MOMENTUM-
TRANSFER FROM POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 20-30 KTS GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON WITH PERIODIC 35 KTS GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SUFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION CAN MORE EFFICIENTLY TRANSFER WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED-LAYER TO THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINATION
OF STRONG WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DESPITE MARGINAL RH (40-30%) GIVEN THE
INCREDIBLY DRY FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG
AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
INCREASE THE RISK FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, DO NOT EXPECT
DROUGHT RELIEF UNTIL WE GET A PATTERN CHANGE.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH, FROM GA ACROSS POSSIBLY SC. THIS WOULD KEEP
THE HEAVIER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR SOUTH. THE
OTHER POTENTIAL FOR NEEDED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. QPF STILL REMAINS QUITE VARIABLE
AND IN FLUX, BUT REMAINS RATHER LIGHT (MOSTLY UNDER A 0.25 TO
0.50). THE GFS SHOWS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING OVER THE DROUGHT PLAGUED
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO
RANGE, BUT DO NOT OFFER MUCH HOPE.
WE NEED A PATTERN CHANGE. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT
WITH EITHER A DOMINATE RIDGE ALOFT OR A ZONAL FLOW. THE AREAS
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS HAVE HAD AN ATYPICAL MOUNTAIN SHADOW
HOLE IN THE RAINFALL DUE VARIATIONS OF A DOMINATE WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WE NEED A BREAK IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER OUR REGION OR A DOMINATE BERMUDA HIGH WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONSISTENTLY BRING GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
THE REGION. THIS IS NOT SEEN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE
ZEROS KEEP STACKING UP.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 625 AM WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND FAY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL SC MAY GLANCE FAY THROUGH THE
SAME TIME. LIGHT TO BRIEFLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FEW/SCT FAIR-
WEATHER CU AROUND 4-7 KFT SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THU MORNING.
OUTLOOK: STRONG AND GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WINDS AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING THU AFTERNOON-EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY REDEVELOP FRI MORNING AND BE ACCOMPANIED A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY FRI.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015 KFAY: 102/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 18: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 77/2025 KFAY: 76/2017
JUNE 19: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 73/2025 KFAY: 77/2017
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/PWB
AVIATION...AS/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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