527
FXUS62 KRAH 140731
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) RECORD OR NEARLY SO HEAT LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... RECORD OR NEARLY SO HEAT LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LWR MS
VALLEY, OBSERVED IN 00Z/14TH 700 MB AND 500 MB DATA AT 321 DAM AND
595 DAM, RESPECTIVELY, WILL PROGRESS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z FRI. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES,
CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED AND/OR AMPLIFIED FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS, WILL PROGRESS AROUND
THE RIDGE IN GENERALLY WLY FLOW ACROSS THE LWR OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY THU. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND
BACK TO SWLY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS, POSITIVE TILT AND INCREASINGLY-
PHASED TROUGH, COMPRISED OF A SRN STREAM CYCLONE NOW OVER THE SRN
UT/NRN AZ AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BC, FORECAST TO
REACH THE UPR GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI.
AT THE SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND SHARPEN ACROSS VA AND
THE CAROLINAS TODAY, WHILE 1018-1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED
OVER MS/AL WILL PROGRESS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, A WAVY FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF ME, WWD ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND LWR GREAT LAKES,
THEN SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN AND CNTL PLAINS, WILL
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND REACH THE VA/NC BORDER
VICINITY BY 12Z THU. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN DRIFT SWD INTO THE FAR NE
PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN OF NC ON THU, PROPELLED BY A ~1025 MB
HIGH (STRONGER THAN THE PRECEDING ONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST) FORECAST
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NWD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT-FRI, AHEAD OF A CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WHILE TRACKING NEWD FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES (~20-25 MB FROM 00Z FRI TO 12Z
SAT).
UPR 80S TO MID 90S TEMPERATURES THAT WERE PRESENT TUE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL EXPAND NEWD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY,
BENEATH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ALOFT. THAT
HEAT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN A PERSISTENCE PATTERN IN THE WARM
SECTOR, EQUATORWARD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL
OFFER COOLING THROUGHOUT VA AND INTO THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND NRN
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC ON THU. HOWEVER, MID AND HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS, FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND ALONG THE PATH OF THE
CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED DISTURBANCES, MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL SUN HEATING POTENTIAL ON THU, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NRN ZONES THAT MAY OTHERWISE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/AHEAD OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT. HEAT WITHIN THE EXPANDING AND MOSTLY SUNNY WARM
SECTOR ON FRI WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WIND,
AFTER LIGHTER WINDS WED-THU.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.
A POTENT NRN STREAM S/W ALOFT WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES THU AND FRI, DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN US AS IT
INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER S/W EJECTING ENEWD FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT/SAT. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEY ON
THU WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US THU NIGHT/FRI. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FROPA, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIMITED IN COVERAGE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA FRI EVE, WITH 30-40 KTS AT 925MB. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS A ~1035 MB HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS EWD. EXPECT STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FRI EVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS IT BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEY
REGIONS ON SAT, BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT/SUN,
THEN OFFSHORE BY MON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABOUT 30 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AFT TO SAT
MORNING. BY SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LOWS FROM THU
NIGHT (GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S). LOWS SHOULD DROP ANOTHER 10
DEGREES OR SO SAT NIGHT, AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC,
WHEN LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE UPR 30S ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT AND
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS CNTL NC. THE USUAL COOLER,
SHELTERED AREAS MAY SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S, WITH SOME PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE MID 30S LOWS BE REALIZED.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AND LIGHT SWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES, WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CNTL NC THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHALLOW RADIATION FOG THIS MORNING AT RWI DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS, AND ALSO NEAR FAY AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EWD TO THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS.
OUTLOOK: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS VA AND INTO NRN NC
THU. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS AND PROBABLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF CNTL NC TAF SITES THU
NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT BEHIND A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 14:
KGSO: 85/1975
KRDU: 86/1985
KFAY: 90/1954
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 87/1985
KRDU: 88/1985
KFAY: 91/1931
OCTOBER 16:
KGSO: 85/1953
KRDU: 86/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 63/1985
KRDU: 66/1942
LATEST 90 F DAYS:
GSO: 10/12/1904
RDU: 10/10/1907
FAY: 10/26/1940
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS/KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH/GREEN
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