993
FXUS62 KRAH 160531
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
131 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...
1) POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT APPEARS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
2) THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT (CENTERED ON FRIDAY). HOWEVER,
THE WINDOW OF TIME FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL APPEARS LIMITED TO
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT APPEARS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (SUB 990 AT TIMES)
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB
TEMPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THURS. THIS WOULD BRING BACK THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS
HEAT ON THURS. A POTENTIAL FAILURE MODE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS.
THURS WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT TO DEVELOP
WHEN 20-22C 850MB TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, AND
WOULD SUPPORT 2M TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100, GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND LIMITED CONVECTION/OUTFLOW. HEATRISK
HIGHLIGHTS WIDESPREAD MAJOR CATEGORY IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN, INDICATING THAT NOT ONLY
IS THIS HEAT PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL, IT IS CORRELATED WITH HIGH
LEVELS OF HEAT ILLNESSES AS NOTED BY HISTORICAL CDC HEAT-HEALTH
DATA, AND THIS HEAT COULD PRODUCE HEALTH IMPACTS ON ALL
POPULATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND
COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT (CENTERED ON FRIDAY). HOWEVER, THE
WINDOW OF TIME FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL APPEARS LIMITED TO LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THE WAY IT APPEARS AT THE MOMENT, THE POTENTIAL
GULF COAST SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL TRACK TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH TO
GIVE US MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER, AS OF THE CURRENT MODELS. THEY INDICATE A STRONG
"KICKER" UPSTREAM IN THE FORM OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT WILL
ARRIVE WITH THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY. THUS, THE
GULF MOISTURE WOULD HAVE ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION. IN FACT, WE MAY HAVE TO RELY ON THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR EVEN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT APPEARS NOW. IN ADDITION, AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH LATE WEEK, IT WILL SHUT OFF ANY DEEP MOISTURE
INFLUX OVER CENTRAL NC AND FORCE IT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WOULD BRING RAPID DRYING AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE FRIDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SO, AS OF THIS MOMENT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AND TN
VALLEY LATE WEEK. IF THE GULF COAST SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP MORE
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, IT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING NEEDED
RAIN. OTHERWISE, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SLAMMED SHUT
AGAIN BY ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, WITH ONLY SCATTERED
STORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OBVIOUSLY NOT WHAT THE DROUGHT
RAVAGED AREAS NEED. EVEN IF IT IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED,
THE "KICKER" FROM THE MIDWEST MAY VERY WELL KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR SOUTH.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE ADVERTISING RELATIVELY HIGH POP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY - THE QPF IS CURRENTLY LOW. AND, THESE POPS
ARE LIKELY OVERDONE AS THEY HAVE BEEN LATELY BY THE MODELS.
NO RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PAST 15-20 DAYS. MAYBE THE MODELS
WILL CATCH ON EVENTUALLY?
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
SCT/BKN 5-7 KFT IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE POOLS
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION ALOFT. WE WILL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG COASTAL NC THAT MAY ADVECT WESTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE AND LACK OF
MODEL SUPPORT PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION IN THE 06Z TAFS FOR RWI AT
THIS TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MOISTURE RETURN MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING, MOST FAVORED AT FAY.
LATEST PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS AT FAY IS AROUND 40% BETWEEN 09 AND
12Z. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTING TO
25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THU INTO FRI, MAXIMIZED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. A LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE WILL FAVOR A
RETURN OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND
LOCATION.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015 KFAY: 102/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 18: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 77/2025 KFAY: 76/2017
JUNE 19: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 73/2025 KFAY: 77/2017
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/PWB
AVIATION...AS/KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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