102
FXUS62 KRAH 250150
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
949 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2020
SYNOPSIS
THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (THE REMNANTS OF BETA) WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF TC BETA, LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MS, WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WILL SEVERAL ASSOCIATED ROUNDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN. PRECIP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. OVERCAST SKIES/INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT, DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CAD AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST, NOT MUCH
MOVEMENT FROM CURRENT VALUES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE SE CENTRAL NC, MAINLY FROM
WADESBORO TO GOLDSBORO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SE CENTRAL NC, MAINLY FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG DOWN FROM THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING,
AND WILL ABSORB THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK AND MOVE FROM
THE WSW TO THE ENE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGHOUT DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT ACROSS THE SC/NC BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN PLACE, THE WARM FRONT
MAY HAVE SOME ISSUES PUSHING FARTHER NORTH AND DESTABILIZING CENTRAL
NC. THIS WILL CONFINE THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, HIGHS WILL
PUSH INTO THE MID 70S AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE CLOUD COVER BREAKS.
SOME LEVEL OF STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6KM WIND SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS LEADING TO A VERY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE NW PIEDMONT.
AS FOR RAINFALL, TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE MORE IN SOUTHEASTERN
NC COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES AN HOUR UNDER THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS TO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN FOR FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, THE LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AND WILL BE ABOUT AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOW 60S TO HIGH 60S FROM THE NW TO SE
RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND ANY RAIN WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER,
GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH ON AVERAGE. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STORMS, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING AWAY, SHEAR WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER, AND SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS, BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE A
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. AGAIN ANY
RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY
(30-40% CHANCE POPS) AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL (UPPER-70S TO LOWER-
80S), WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. AFTER THAT, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
GREATLY INCREASES. THE GFS AND ECMWF VARY WIDELY ON TIMING, WITH THE
12Z GFS MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN DRY COOL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF, ON
THE OTHER HAND, HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN,
HOLDING BACK A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY AND NOT
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM
THREAT. FOR NOW JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
ECMWF WAS MUCH FASTER IN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THIS MAY JUST BE AN
OUTLIER. REGARDLESS, THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE CLEARED THE AREA BY
THURSDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING, BUT REGARDLESS,
BEHIND THE FRONT A COOL FALL-LIKE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BRINGS CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN US. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WELL-BELOW-NORMAL (UPPER-
60S TO LOWER-70S), WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOWER-50S.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 840 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE REMNANTS OF TC BETA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, SPREADING LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS INTO
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT GENERALLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY AND KRWI FROM
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY, WITH
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT KFAY AND KRWI. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
(IFR/LIFR) AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT/JJT
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...BSD/JJT
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