758
FXUS62 KRAH 052338
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
738 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
* PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PROGRESS
EWD AND OUT OF RAH'S COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH 20Z.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
1) PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
PROGRESS EWD AND OUT OF RAH'S COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH 20Z.
2) WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
3) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION, EXTENDING AT 19Z THROUGH THE FAR
ERN REACHES OF RAH'S COASTAL PLAIN FROM NEAR ASJ TO PGF TO EYF, WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF 35-50 KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH A DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZED AND
RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER
ERN NC. THE AIRMASS BETWEEN THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND, AND A
LEAD SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY ACROSS THE NRN NC
PIEDMONT, IS ONE THAT WILL REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE BENEATH A
DENSER MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY AND LIGHT, STRATIFORM
RAIN/SPRINKLES. THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATIFORM RAIN AND LESS-VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KTS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SEWD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THAT LEAD FRONT, WHOSE WRN PORTION HAS SLOWED AS IT SETTLED THROUGH
THE NW PIEDMONT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, WILL LIKELY GET OVERTAKEN
BY A CLOSELY-FOLLOWING AND REINFORCING FRONT, WHOSE LEADING EDGE AND
SURGE OF MARKEDLY DRIER AIR AND WNWLY MOMENTUM HAS PROGRESSED TO
NEAR MWK TO UKF.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S COLD FRONT AND MONDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 30S BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SUSTAINED WIND TO REMAIN BETWEEN
5 AND 10 MPH EACH NIGHT, WHICH WOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR. STILL, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
FORMATION BOTH NIGHTS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES
EVERYWHERE WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 ... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S COLD FRONT AND MONDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULTING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY LATE WEEK, THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS WILL WORSEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE WIND GUSTS
SHOULDN'T BE MORE THAN 15-20 MPH, THE MINIMUM RH VALUES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 20-35%, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES LATER IN THE FORECAST STILL DROPPING AS LOW AS 30%.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 738 PM SUNDAY...
THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
THE BACK EDGE OF THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER FAY AND RWI,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AROUND 01-02Z AT THE LATEST. BEFORE
THAT, A BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT, A PERIOD OF NW WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, EARLIEST AT GSO/INT AND LATEST AT FAY.
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 5-10 KT WILL BE FAVORED OVERNIGHT ONCE
THE GUSTS SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK: A COUPLE OF AREAS OF CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE, AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR, WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS IN CNTL NC THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS/GREEN
AVIATION...KREN/MWS
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