472
FXUS62 KRAH 190520
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVAL ON THU HAS TRENDED SLOWER, THUS HIGHS
HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THU.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...
1) HOT AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THU, WITH DAILY ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH THAT WE'LL SEE CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY
HOT WEATHER, NEAR-RECORD OR RECORD-BREAKING IN SOME CASES, AS STRONG
RIDGING NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS PERSISTS. THE LATEST
HREF CARRIES THROUGH WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS DAYS' LREF INDICATED,
WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER NC IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND JUST A SLIGHT REDUCTION TO 95TH PERCENTILE FOR WED. AND
850 MB TEMPS WILL SIT ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE, AS LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES HOLD AROUND 20 M ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEEP DAILY
MIXING. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC BOTH TUE AND WED. THE DEEP MIXING AND RESULTING DROP IN AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S IS WHAT WILL KEEP OUR MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
UNDER 100F, HOWEVER OUR DAILY HEAT RISK WILL PEAK AT LEVEL 2 OF 4
(MODERATE), WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF LEVEL 3 OF 4 (HIGH), SUGGESTING
HEAT THAT IS UNUSUALLY INTENSE AND WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAT
ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT. AND GIVEN
THE GENERALLY LIGHT BREEZE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY, THE WBGT
INDEX WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL. AS SUCH, IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
WATER BREAKS, SPENDING TIME RESTING IN THE SHADE IS ENCOURAGED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THU, WITH DAILY ABOVE-
NORMAL CHANCES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST RAIN
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH
THU NIGHT.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND WED/THU WILL TAKE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, PUSHING A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, BRINGING IT INTO OUR
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY-MID THU AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST
S OF THE CWA EARLY-MID THU EVENING. THIS SLOWING WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER PREFRONTAL TEMPS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE S WHERE THE COOLER
AIR WILL BE LAST TO ARRIVE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW-MID 80S NEAR
THE VA BORDER AND TRIAD TO AROUND 90 IN THE TRIANGLE AND LOW 90S
(AND ISOLATED MID 90S) IN THE FAR S.
GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL PUSH, EXPECT MINIMAL POPS PRIOR TO MIDDAY
THU, WITH JUST SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WED EVENING IN THE FAR N. AS
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW (ALTHOUGH INITIALLY STILL FAIRLY WEAK), MINOR
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE S
PLAINS INTO THE S APPALACHIANS. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL TAP OF
MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL PUSH PW LEVELS ABOVE
NORMAL, AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-
MOVING FRONT, POPS ARE LIKELY TO RAMP UP QUICKLY THU AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SW 850 MB FLOW WILL
FORCE INCREASING ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS AND PROPAGATING CELLS ON THE SW SIDE OF
CONVECTION. THE OVERALL CAPE AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE ON
THE LOW END THU, THUS NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AND THUNDER MAY
BE LIMITED TO JUST ISOLATED.
BY FRI, THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR N WILL BE SHIFTING E OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST BUT STILL EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AND W NC AS
A DAMMING WEDGE. WHILE THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE PARENT HIGH
SHOULD CURB THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT, THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS AND OVERRUNNING FLOW ATOP THE LOW LEVEL CAA FOR HIGH SURFACE-
BASED STABILITY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION, FAVORING COOLER TEMPS, ESP
OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW 70S, WHILE SE
AREAS OF THE CWA ALONG AND SE OF THE WEDGE FRONT SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH EVEN WEAK OR BRIEF WEDGE EVENTS,
THE GREATEST TEMP UNCERTAINTY WILL BE EITHER SIDE OF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY, THUS CONFIDENCE IN FRI HIGHS REMAINS LOW. THE WEDGE SHOULD
BE VULNERABLE TO DISSOLUTION BY SAT, ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK
ABOVE NORMAL, ALTHOUGH NOT TO EARLY-WEEK HEAT LEVELS.
WITH A PERSISTENT LONG AND WAVY SW FLOW FROM N MEXICO INTO THE
CAROLINAS COMBINED WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, FOCUSED ON EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRI THROUGH MON. THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RESPITE FROM OUR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD
00Z/19 MAY.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS.
THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY SURROUNDING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND BREEZY NE WINDS. BRIEF CLASSICAL CAD WILL LIKELY
BRING SUB-VFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS BEHIND THE FROPA THAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL CAD REGIME AT
INT/GSO AND POTENTIALLY RDU. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MVFR TO NIGHTLY IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022
MAY 20:
KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022
MAY 21:
KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022
MAY 20:
KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022
MAY 21:
KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025
MAY 23:
KFAY: 72/2011
MAY 24:
KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000
MAY 25:
KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT/AS
CLIMATE...RAH
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