916
FXUS62 KRAH 292321
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
721 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ALTHOUGH THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK REMAINS THROUGHOUT CNTL
NC, THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THE RELATIVE GREATEST THREAT WILL
EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11 PM.
* UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION TO REFLECT THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND TIMING FOR THE 00Z THURS TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) ALTHOUGH THE MARGINAL(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK REMAINS THROUGHOUT CNTL
NC, THE RELATIVE GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT,
MAINLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11 PM.
2) NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... ALTHOUGH THE MARGINAL(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK REMAINS
THROUGHOUT CNTL NC, THE RELATIVE GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE
PIEDMONT, MAINLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11 PM.
WIDESPREAD (LOW) OVERCAST, AND ALSO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A
CONVECTIVELY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND MCVS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SINCE
LAST NIGHT, HAVE KEPT CNTL NC STABLE AND DRY TODAY. HOWEVER, THE
POLEWARD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT, WHICH EXTENDED AT 19Z FROM A LEE
LOW NEAR HKY ESEWD ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SRN COASTAL PLAIN, WILL
YIELD LIFTING AND SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND RELATED SSW TO
NNE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CNTL NC THROUGH 22-23Z. DESPITE
WHAT MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER CNTL NC BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z, BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVELY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH (AND 70 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS
OBSERVED AT GSO AT 12Z) AND A PERTURBATION THAT WILL SHEAR QUICKLY
EWD FROM CO THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY THU,
GLANCING INFLUENCE FROM A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS JUST UPSTREAM OF CNTL NC THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING. SPECIFICALLY, SCATTERED CELLS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS, ONE
ANCHORED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE LOW NEAR KHKY, AND ALSO POSSIBLY
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS - ALL OF WHICH SHOULD THEN
MOVE GENERALLY EWD WITH WLY MEAN WINDS OF 35-40 KTS, AND SHOULD SOME
INDEED DEVELOP, ACROSS CNTL NC BETWEEN 22Z AND 03-04Z. VWP DATA AND
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DEPICT VEERING IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KILOMETERS
BENEATH MUCH STRONGER WLY FLOW (50-90 KTS) THROUGH THE MID AND UPR-
LEVELS. THOSE (SUPERCELL) SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT
SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ADEQUATELY STRONG TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL, WITH STRENGTHENING OF THAT SHEAR WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOCTURNAL, LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACCELERATION CENTERED AROUND
00Z. THAT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHEST FOR RIGHT-
MOVING CELLS WHOSE MOTIONS WOULD BE FAVORABLY ALIGNED ALONG THE
RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHERE BOTH SHEAR
AND LOW LCLS WOULD ALSO BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST, BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN HAVE A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WHILE THE FORECAST
HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR FRIDAY EVENING, RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCURRING SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN DECREASE, COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE THIS IS
STILL THREE TO FOUR DAYS AWAY, THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
ANYWHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE TRIAD TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB SHOULD LIMIT ANY INSTABILITY AND HAVE REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3... TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN RISE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WHILE TONIGHT'S FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE NEW AIR MASS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT, AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS, WINDS WILL TAKE ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT,
RESULTING IN A CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY - LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES, WITH LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
WITH CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS, TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HELP RAISE HIGHS INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S - TOO WARM FOR CONCERN
ABOUT FROST POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...
MVFR CIGS HAS CLEARED CENTRAL NC TERMINALS WITH SCATTERED 3,500 TO
5,000 FT CUMULUS IN ITS WAKE. CONVECTION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/THROUGH SOUTHWEST VA IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00Z UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 05Z.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT ANY CENTRAL NC TERMINALS AND BRING BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAIN, RISK FOR INFREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. SMALL
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT FROM THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THAT CONVECTION
EARLY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT RWI, AMID RESIDUALLY MOIST LOW-LEVELS
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING DRIER AIR AND LIGHT NWLY
FLOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
(VFR) CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN MAY LIFT INTO FAY FRI
MORNING; PREVAILING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL ACCOMPANY AN AREA LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ON SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS/TG
AVIATION...AS/MWS
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