621
FXUS62 KRAH 201105
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
1) HEAT FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HEAT FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DRIVEN BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
THE MIDWEST INTO OUR AREA, THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND SEVERE RISK, THOUGH THE
LATEST AI-NWP CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 30–45% CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. BECAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH AFTERNOONS HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S. TRIPLE DIGIT “FEELS LIKE” TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN HEAT RISK
VALUES REACHING THE MAJOR CATEGORY (3 OUT OF 4) ACROSS THE TRIANGLE
AND SANDHILLS, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US1.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF MORNING STRATUS ON
MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MVFR) CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY A COLD
FRONT BRINGS SHOWS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 22:
KRDU: 100/2022
KFAY: 101/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 22:
KGSO: 75/1981
KRDU: 78/1933
JUNE 23:
KGSO: 74/2024
KRDU: 78/2024
KFAY: 77/2024
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...BLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page