322
FXUS62 KRAH 241715
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...
1) THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF DRY AND LARGELY
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF DRY AND LARGELY
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN AS IT
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST REACHING THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING INTO
OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST LATE
IN THE WEEK/WEEKEND AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND EVEN
SOUTHWESTERLY, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT RESULTING
IN MORE CLOUDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE NEED TO CONSIDER LIMITED
NON-ZERO RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...
REINFORCING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RELATED NELY
SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KTS MAINLY AT FAY AND RWI WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY. THE NELY
FLOW REGIME WILL BE A MARITIME-INFLUENCED ONE THAT WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS, WITH RELATIVELY GREATEST
COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WHILE MOST STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
BASED ABOVE 3000 FT AGL AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO HAVE SHIFTED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THOSE SITES AS SCHEDULED AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY DISPERSE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL REDEVELOP IN A VERY SIMILAR MANNER LATE
TONIGHT-SUN MORNING, WHEN A FLEETING MVFR CEILING WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND MORE-SO JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF INT AND GSO.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SMALL CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN NELY FLOW THIS WEEKEND, DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES
AVIATION...MWS
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