092
FXUS62 KRAH 270841
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER AND BREEZY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- HIGHS TODAY IN THE 40S NW RANGING INTO THE LOWER 50S SE.
- WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 20S FOR LOWS.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WERE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH FROM THE WNW AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TUMBLING. IT WAS CURRENLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS EVIDENT. THE THEME OF THE DAY WILL BE THE COLD BREEZE. A
SECONDARY THEME WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH FROM TIME TO TIME TO DIM THE SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 45-55 RANGE FROM NW TO SE.
THEN, ONCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES MID TO LATE DAY, LOOK FOR
DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER THE
CLIMOLOGICAL LULL IN WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK AS MIXING OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT REACH THE SURFACE AROUND MID-MORNING. GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
WILL BE COMMON. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AROUND DUSK, BUT ANOTHER
INCREASE IN WIND MAY ARRIVE AS ANOTHER SURFACE OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES
LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED VERY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
- DESPITED SUNSHINE, HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. WIND CHILL READINGS IN
THE 20S/30S AM/PM.
- A HARD FREEZE WITH LOWS IN THE 18-24 RANGE N TO SE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY. CAA WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY WNW WINDS 10-20 MPH. RESULTANT
WIND CHILLS WILL KEEP APPARANT TEMPERATURES BELOW 35 IN MOST AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS COLD EPISODE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE ONLY GOOD NEWS WILL BE DIMINISHING BREEZES IN THE EVENING AND
MAINLY CALM LATE.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
* TWO MAIN ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN INTO TUES NIGHT.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE TUES SYSTEM REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO
MAIN ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN; ONE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AND ANOTHER EARLY TUES INTO TUES EVENING. THE FIRST WILL
LIKELY BE THE LIGHTER OF THE TWO EVENTS WITH BASICALLY NEUTRAL H5
TENDENCIES, WEAKENING H750 WAA, REMAINING MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION, AND INITIAL STAGES OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ATOP A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA. PREDOMINANTLY P-TYPE
CHARACTER WILL BE A COLD STRATIFORM RAIN, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY SUN MORNING
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD
LAYER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER
12-15Z. PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS FROM AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE FAR TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ANY MAINTENANCE OF ICE CRYSTALS. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET, LIQUID HYDROMETEORS ARE MOST PROBABLE BY THE
TIME THEY REACH THE SURFACE. A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND POOR
DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY MAKE THE BRIEF POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN
INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR THE NW PIEDMONT.
AN IN-SITU CAD REGIME SUN INTO SUN NIGHT WILL LIKELY ERODE AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON, PRIMING THE AIRMASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR A CLASSIC CAD ON
TUES. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MON MORNING EJECTING EASTWARD
AND TRAVERSING THE MID-ATLANTIC BY TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE, A CLASSIC MILLER-A SURFACE LOW TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW ORIGINATING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN THE GULF MON NIGHT AND
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUES
NIGHT.
NWP GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE
FAVORABLE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF A COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST, HOWEVER, IT IS MORE TRANSITORY AND DOES NOT SUPPLY A
STEADY SOURCE OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN A COLD RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
CERTAINLY HAVE A HIGHER CEILING, BUT REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN (THE
MOST LIKELY LOW-END TOTALS FROM THE EPS AND GEPS STILL ONLY SHOW
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 0.10", AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS). LATEST FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM WPC ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE (CLOSER TO 50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE FROM THE 12Z
GRAND-ENSEMBLE) AND RESULTS IN GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH TOTALS
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1" BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND WED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM THURSDAY...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WNW TO 25KT
TONIGHT, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10KT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN THE
GUSTS WILL RETURN WITH MIXING BY MID-MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CIGS INCREASES AS
WE TREND TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER / TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT THE
WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW... DIPPING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT
BY MID-AFTERNOON.
- WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
- THE COLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 FOR MOST OF THE DAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR LOW TO MODEST TODAY.
- RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE SLOW AND ONLY TO AROUND
60-65 PERCENT BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
- WNW WINDS 10-15 MPH AND MIN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FRIDAY SHOULD
AGAIN BE IN THE 20-28 PERCENT RANGE, LOWEST IN THE SANDHILLS.
-BOTTOM LINE... AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO'S, WE WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF THE BREEZY, COLD, DRY CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR NOW.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT
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