585
FXUS62 KRAH 011751
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
152 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 152 PM MONDAY...
1) A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF US-64.
2) COOLER WEDNESDAY BEFORE RISING BACK TO THE 90S BY THIS WEEKEND.
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 152 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH OF US-64.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS TN/KY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NC, STRETCHING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS INTO EASTERN TN/KY. CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SPARSE THUS FAR WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS JUST NOW STARTING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN WELL INTO THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN (RELATIVELY)
ELEVATED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THERE IS A GENERAL RUN TO RUN SIGNAL FROM THE HRRR SUGGESTING SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE POOLING (PW'S BRIEFLY RISING ABOVE 1.5") AND MLCAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. THIS GENERAL IDEA IS MIRRORED WITHIN THE 00Z AND 12Z HREF
WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-64, WITH
STORMS EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY TO MID EVENING (00Z-02Z). UPPER
LEVEL FORCING IS LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE AND THUS THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED, ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30-40
MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. QPF WILL BE VERY
HIT OR MISS (PROBABLY MORE MISS THAN HIT) WITH HREF LPMM SHOWING A
FEW POCKETS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
TRACE OR LESS AMOUNTS. POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COOLER WEDNESDAY BEFORE RISING BACK TO THE 90S BY
THIS WEEKEND. DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A DEEP
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO CANADA SLOWLY OOZES EASTWARD. THIS WILL
PROMOTE COOLER TEMPS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY (HIGHS AROUND 80 OR SO) WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIXING OUT AGAIN INTO THE 40S. BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND
PROMOTE SLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND, PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL
NC INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY BREAKDOWN A
BIT BY SUNDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
TO SPILL EAST INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER,
PREDICTABILITY AND CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 152 PM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: THE AREAS OF MVFR STRATOCU FROM THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY, ALTHOUGH MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RDU.
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH AT FAY AFTER 20Z WHERE
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED, BUT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU WITHIN BROAD
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF STRATUS/STRATOCU MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY MIXING OUT BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/LUCHETTI
AVIATION...LEINS
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