095
FXUS62 KRAH 192323
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MADE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
1) HOT AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES PERSISTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RISE GENERALLY INTO THE MID 90S. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING THAT HIGHS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS ALSO LOOK
TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THUS, THE HEATRISK BOTH DAYS IS
MOSTLY MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4), WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF
MAJOR (3 OF 4). THIS MEANS THAT HEAT MAY EFFECT THOSE WITHOUT
ACCESS TO COOLING AND HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
ALOFT, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE MAY ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT, WITH SEVERAL S/W
DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. A S/W WILL
CLIP THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
AGAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THU AFT/EVE. A CAD AIR MASS SHOULD SET UP THROUGH FRI/FRI
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US RIDGES SWD
INTO THE AREA AND WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE COOL, STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. STILL EXPECT THE WEDGE
TO ERODE SAT/SAT NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NNWWD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INCREASES BEYOND
FROM SAT ONWARD, WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND FORECAST
IMPLICATIONS FOR CENTRAL NC. THE EC ERODES THE WEDGE ON BY SAT
NIGHT, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT IN PLACE INTO MON.
PRECIPITATION: THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THU ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ABOVE THE
COOLER, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI/FRI NIGHT OVER CENTRAL NC. REGARDLESS OF WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE WEDGE, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SAT-
MON, WITH TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY THE PRIMARY AREAS OF
UNCERTAINTY. WHERE/WHEN THE WEDGE ERODES AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
ACROSS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WHILE RAIN WILL
BE FAVORED NORTH OF IT.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS THU WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE CONVECTION AHEAD/ALONG IT. FOR NOW, EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH. THERE IS A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL
WRT HIGHS ON FRI GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CAD TO BRIEFLY SET UP AND
POSSIBLE CONTINUED RAIN INTO IT. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S SOUTH, BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. LOWS THU AND FRI NIGHTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
BACK TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE WEDGE ERODES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 725 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NE WINDS TO THE REGION. SUB-VFR CEILINGS ALSO LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY IN THE TRIAD AND POTENTIALLY RDU AS A CAD REGIME LOOKS
TO SET UP OVER THE REGION. DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022
MAY 20:
KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022
MAY 21:
KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022
MAY 20:
KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022
MAY 21:
KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025
MAY 23:
KFAY: 72/2011
MAY 24:
KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000
MAY 25:
KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/HELOCK
AVIATION...BADGETT/HELOCK
CLIMATE...RAH
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