648
FXUS62 KRAH 271002
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
602 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SPC INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...
1) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.
THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING AS A LINE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO DECAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR WEST, A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE TRIAD. A
SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL,
MEANING THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE LREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS,
RAIN LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE END
TIMING IS A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR, WITH THE GEFS SHOWING A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT RAIN INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW RAIN ENDING BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS
ALSO COMBINED WITH SOME GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD
BE A SPLIT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN TO BOTH OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.
REGARDLESS, QPF VALUES LOOK TO BE LIGHT, WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF
EACH ENSEMBLE GENERALLY SHOWING LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ANY EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
DISAGREE ON IF A LOW FORMS OFF THE NC COAST, WHICH IS MAKING THE
RAINFALL FORECAST UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ALSO SEEN IN THE LREF CLUSTER
ANALYSIS, WHERE ONLY 2 OF THE 4 CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING OVER 40% CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 558 AM MONDAY...
10Z UPDATE: MVFR CEILINGS ARE HANGING ON AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, VFR AND CLEAR SKIES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER. STILL EXPECTING CEILINGS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BUT DELAYED THE RETURN TO VFR A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE
GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SATELLITE TRENDS. KFAY MAY HOLD ONTO
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ~16 TO 17Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
MVFR STRATUS PERSISTS THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE RESIDUAL NELY
GUSTINESS AT KRDU/KFAY. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. NELY SFC FLOW WILL PERSIST
TODAY, BUT EXPECT FLOW TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM SFC
WINDS.
OUTLOOK: A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER AT GSO/INT. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THU AND FRI.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HELOCK
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/KREN
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