981
FXUS62 KRAH 192300
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE TIMING OF EARLY-WEEK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT, WHICH FAVORS WARMER TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONALLY, RAIN CHANCES MON/MON NIGHT HAVE COME DOWN A BIT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
1) WHILE SAT/SAT NIGHT STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, WE'RE SEEING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE SW CWA, WHICH WILL
BEAR WATCHING.
2) A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON. MODEL SPREAD WITH TIMING REMAINS ELEVATED, BUT HAS
IMPROVED. RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING LOWER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WHILE SAT/SAT NIGHT STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, WE'RE
SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE SW CWA,
WHICH WILL BEAR WATCHING.
WHILE TODAY'S DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS GRADUALLY OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT, THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN.
THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
DIVE SE TOWARD OUR AREA, ONE OF WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NE SECTIONS. THIS FLOW
WILL ALSO INCLUDE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH TRACKS SE OVER
THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SAT AFTN/EVENING AND WHICH SHOWS GOOD
TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION AGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A POCKET OF ELEVATED PW (~150-200% OF NORMAL)
DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, AND SPOT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM A FEW
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP
ENOUGH LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REACHING
OUR SW, ALONG WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD AND NORTHWEST MID-UPPER FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION COVERAGE, AND THE NBM MEAN REMAINS LARGELY
DRY IN THIS PERIOD. BUT THIS POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING, CONSIDERING
THAT THERE MAY BE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TAKING PLACE ON THIS SPRING
WEEKEND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA MON AFTERNOON. MODEL SPREAD WITH TIMING REMAINS ELEVATED,
BUT HAS IMPROVED. RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING LOWER.
OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MID LEVEL POLAR LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CANADA STARTING THIS WEEKEND, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARED WITHIN FAST WNW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US/CANADA BORDER IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/
NORTHEAST/CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUE, PROPELLING THE BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE IN PART FOR THE VAST
MODEL SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE SUITES (INCLUDING THE NBM, LREF, AND
AIGEFS) REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING, AND THIS SPREAD HAS HAD THE MOST
NOTEWORTHY SENSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE TEMPS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT, INCLUDING 18Z MON ENSEMBLE 2M TEMP SPREADS AS MUCH AS 30-40
DEGREES F (10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES) ON THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS FROM
TUE/WED. AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IMPROVED, THOUGH, CONFIDENCE HAS
GROWN IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH NC MOST LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MON, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS ON THE FASTER END OF SOLUTIONS. THIS TIMING
WOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME HEATING MON AND A LONGER DURATION IN
THE WARM SECTOR, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND GRADUAL LATE-DAY ONSET OF CAA
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM THE VERY WARM SUN HIGHS
(EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AREAWIDE), DOWN TO THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. REGARDING POPS, MOST MODELS DO SHOW AN UPTICK IN PW TO
200-225% OF NORMAL IN NC MON MORNING, JUST AHEAD OF THE MEAN MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, ALONG WITH MARGINAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. BUT THIS
EARLIER-IN-THE-DAY TIMING WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF ANY PREFRONTAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT
MIGHT BOOST ASCENT AND HENCE RAISE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY
CONVECTION, DESPITE HAVING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 35-45
KTS. RECENT GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE 7.5-8.0 C/KM RANGE (SOURCED FROM SUN'S EML OVER THE PLAINS)
PASSING THROUGH MON MORNING, ALSO A TIMING NOT WELL-ALIGNED WITH
PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE DRYING WESTERLY OR WNW COMPONENT TO THE LOW-
MID LEVEL FLOW, AS WELL AS THE LIMITED GULF-SOURCE MOISTURE TAP DUE
TO THE E-TO-W SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF/FL/BAHAMAS, LOWER
COVERAGE OVERALL WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND POPS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 25-30%. WILL KEEP
MONITORING TRENDS, THOUGH, IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS, ALLOWING FOR
MORE HEATING AND BETTER TEMPORAL ALIGNMENT OF THE SHEAR, CAPE, AND
LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL DROP POST-FRONT TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S MON NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS TUE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK
TEMP MODIFICATION AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK, THOUGH.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE DRY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW QUICKLY
AROUND 18Z FRI, BECOMING OVERCAST AT 8-15 KFT BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN
BECOME MAINLY SWLY ON FRI, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KINT, KGSO,
AND KRDU DURING THE AFT/EVE.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY LATE EVE/NIGHT,
HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT KRWI, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS MONDAY AFT/EVE AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES NW-SE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY WITH THE
COLD FRONT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...10
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