368
FXUS62 KRAH 091839
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
239 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
* NONE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK ARE LIKELY TO MEET
OR EXCEED RECORDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) LOW PREDICTABILITY SEVERE THREAT ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK ARE
LIKELY TO MEET OR EXCEED RECORDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE WEAK FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY, LARGELY MARKED BY
A DEW POINT GRADIENT, WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A MID/UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RECORD PERIOD OF WARMTH ON BOTH DAYS. WHILE TODAY WILL
BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO 80 (15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL), INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
FURTHER RISE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER-80S, AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-80S. THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO OR BREAK RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT ALL THREE CLIMATE
SITES (GSO, RDU, AND FAY) ON BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOWER-60S IN MOST AREAS,
WHICH WOULD COME VERY CLOSE TO HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS
WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LOW PREDICTABILITY SEVERE THREAT ALONG A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ALOFT, THE PATTERN FOR MID-LATE WEEK REMAINS COMPLEX, WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES (PRIMARILY ONE NRN STREAM AND ONE SRN STREAM) MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CNTL AND ERN CONUS WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WED AND
THU. THE SRN STREAM S/W LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST,
WHILE THE NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC, WED NIGHT/THU. THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BOTH BE
OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, THE PARENT LOW SHOULD LIFT
ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN GREAT LAKES WED, WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT, EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN
PLAINS, STRENGTHENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US WED NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD TO ROUGHLY
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT. A SECONDARY SFC LOW BENEATH THE
SRN STREAM S/W WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST WED NIGHT
THU, AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY THU NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WRT THE TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA, AS WELL AS THE FROPA. GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THERE MAY BE, WITH BETTER
CHANCES FARTHER EAST WITH LATER TIMING AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
DESTABILIZATION. WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THAT THREAT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WHEN MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN, THAT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION, AND THUS POTENTIALLY STRONGER
STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: LOW STRATUS IS NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS (INCLUDING FAY), AND IT HAS NOW
LARGELY LIFTED TO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS STRATUS WILL FULLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH VFR PREVAILING ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, JUST SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS AROUND 5-8 KFT WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR PATCHY MIST/FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT FAY, BUT IT WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA (INCLUDING FAY). LIGHT
WINDS MAINLY FROM THE W OR SW (AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS) WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TONIGHT, THEN INCREASING TUESDAY
MORNING BUT STAYING LIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY: PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW STRATUS
MAY OCCUR AT ANY TERMINAL ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY, SHIFTING WINDS. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 84/2009 KFAY: 87/1974
MARCH 10: KGSO: 78/2016 KRDU: 81/1974 KFAY: 84/1974
MARCH 11: KGSO: 86/1967 KRDU: 85/1925 KFAY: 87/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9: KGSO: 61/1921 KRDU: 61/1921 KFAY: 62/1980
MARCH 10: KGSO: 58/2016 KRDU: 57/2020 KFAY: 65/1964
MARCH 11: KGSO: 62/2016 KRDU: 63/2016 KFAY: 63/2016
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/KCP
AVIATION...DANCO/CA
CLIMATE...RAH
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