038
FXUS62 KRAH 182342
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
742 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY.
* EXPIRED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
1) HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND A SMALLER HEAT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) ANOTHER HOT DAY THURSDAY, BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND A SMALLER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LESS THAN YESTERDAY, HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, AND THOSE VALUES WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN A FEW HOURS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER,
THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK PRODUCT STILL SHOWS EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4)
RISK ACROSS MUCH OF CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES, AND EVEN THOUGH
ONLY A PORTION OF SAMPSON COUNTY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF A HEAT INDEX OF 105 DEGREES, WILL ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
HEAT ON THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO IT. IN GENERAL, MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD HAVE THEIR HEAT INDEX REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ANOTHER HOT DAY THURSDAY, BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER
TO NORMAL. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR AROUND THE
REGION, BRINGING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AIDED BY A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. EARLY LOOKS FROM THE FEW CAMS THAT GO OUT FAR
ENOUGH ARE SUGGESTING THAT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES PEAKING AROUND 20-30 KTS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW STRONGER CELLS TO FORM AND SUSTAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF EXPECTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HOWEVER, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN AS PWS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 2 IN. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
AND LESSENING RAIN CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST REMAINING MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE DAY. AS OF NOW, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S NORTH TO
UPPER 90S SOUTH, WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105-107.
THESE VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH AS CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT FURTHER COULD BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT INDEX.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S TO THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND AND EAST OF RWI
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE TRIAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS RDU THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND FAY AND
ESPECIALLY RWI WHICH MAY SUPPORT SUB-VFR EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 100MB (3,000 FT) SHOULD BE TURBULENT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND FAVOR MORE STRATUS/MIST IF IT WERE
TO DEVELOP. INHERITED TEMPO WAS KEPT DUE TO INCREASED LIKELIHOOD
FROM AFTERNOON STORMS AND LOCAL EFFECTS SURROUNDING RWI.
OUTLOOK: A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS THURS
AFTERNOON, BUT ESPECIALLY THURS NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THIS TIME,
DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND MAY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AT TIMES.
ADDITIONALLY, BRIEF, MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY ALSO BRING MORE
PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CIGS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 18: KFAY: 98/1988
AUGUST 20: KFAY: 102/2007
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021
AUGUST 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940
AUGUST 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
AUGUST 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005
AUGUST 22: KFAY: 75/2018
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ088-089.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/HELOCK
AVIATION...AS
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