024
FXUS62 KRAH 192336
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAS INCREASED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
* HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR CUMBERLAND, HARNETT, SAMPSON, AND WAYNE
COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW UNDER EITHER A LEVEL 1 OR
2 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
2) ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ON THURSDAY.
3) RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW UNDER EITHER
A LEVEL 1 OR 2 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES,
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCREASED THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THEIR
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE INCLUDED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FROM WAKE
COUNTY TO THE NORTHEAST, THE NEWEST ISSUANCE NOW HAS A SLIGHT (LEVEL
2 OF 5) RISK FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK ELSEWHERE. WHILE LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTHEAST OF
RALEIGH, THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME FROM
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE NEWEST RUNS OF THE HRW NSSL AND HRW ARW
SHOW THAT CONVECTION COULD START AS EARLY AS 1-2PM ALONG AND WEST OF
THE US-1 CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 5-9PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ON THURSDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT FOR CUMBERLAND
AND SAMPSON COUNTIES - ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY NOT REACH 105
IN THESE COUNTIES DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE, THE
EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK PRODUCT INDICATES AN EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4)
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES. WHILE DEWPOINTS MAY INCREASE BY
A DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
BY A COUPLE DEGREES ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES AGAIN, IN ADDITION TO
HARNETT AND WAYNE COUNTIES. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OTHER AREAS
COULD HAVE THE HEAT INDEX RISE TO 105 DEGREES, THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY OUTSIDE OF THESE 4 COUNTIES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION BEGINNING EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DELAYED IN ARRIVING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, LATER SHIFTS MAY CHOOSE TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN US INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW, BRINGING A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR A FEW
ROUNDS OF RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON
FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, AS SEEN BY AN
INCREASE OF PWS TO 2 TO 2.1 IN OVER THE REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES ON FRIDAY,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER CELLS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA. THUS, MOSTLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE
LREF SUGGESTING AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND
20-30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER
CELLS TO FORM AND SUSTAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANY RAIN ON SATURDAY, A SIMILAR
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, MEANING THAT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY FROM
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY, CLOUD COVER COULD CAUSE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY, WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO WILL NEED TO SEE
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE AS WE GET CLOSER. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
AND LESSENING RAIN CHANCES AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PASS OVER THE REGION, BRINGING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN.
WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS EQUATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BEING IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: GOOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TRIAD
AND TRIANGLE TERMINALS (KINT, KGSO, KRDU) THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE KRWI/KFAY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT'S NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME CALM THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
BRINING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THIS MOISTURE RETURN AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS, AND RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT KFAY AND KRWI. THUS, TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN
ADDED FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. KFAY SHOWS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, WHILE KRWI MAY SEE MORE TRANSIENT MVFR
VISIBILITY DROPS. ANY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT THESE EASTERN
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING, GIVING WAY TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CIRRUS AND A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN SITES, BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, SO DID NOT PUT A MENTION IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH COVERAGE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
AUGUST 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005
AUGUST 22: KRDU: 74/2017 KFAY: 75/2018
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ077-078-088-089.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/HELOCK
AVIATION...CA
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