176
FXUS62 KRAH 261035
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
1) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
2) MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY.
PATCHY RAIN PERSISTS OVER THE S AND E CWA, WITHIN MID LEVEL DPVA
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SW/WSW
THROUGH VA INTO FAR NE TN. THIS IS PRODUCING A SOMEWHAT MESSY SET OF
SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS, INCLUDING A BACKDOOR FRONT EXTENDING FROM
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA WESTWARD TO WEAKER
LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN VA, WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE W PIEDMONT OF NC. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
SLOWLY E AND SE TODAY, THE GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK DPVA ALOFT
WILL MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OUR S AND E THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING. AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL/SE VA DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC, LOW LEVEL COOLING, STABILIZING, AND
CONDENSATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AS WELL AS A SUPPLEMENTAL CHANCE
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRISK AND GUSTY WIND FROM
THE NNE AND NE IS ALSO LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT, LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES JUST TO OUR S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
LOW CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CAA (LEADING TO PLUMMETING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES) AND A SLOW PRECIP EXIT WILL FAVOR HIGHS TODAY FROM THE
LOW 60S NE TO THE MID 70S SW, AROUND 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS AND ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEAKENING CAA BY MON WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH
WITH STARTING THICKNESSES AROUND 30 M BELOW NORMAL, AND CONTINUED
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH MON WITH A PERSISTENT MESOHIGH/
STABLE POOL IN PLACE, HIGHS MON WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND A PLUME OF 1.5-2.0"
PW SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS,
DEPENDING ON THE STABILITY OF THE PRECEDING AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THAT THE MOST
RAINFALL MAY BE TO OUR NORTH (WITH THE STRONGER UPPER FORCING) AND
TO OUR SOUTH (IN THE RELATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS), WITH SOME
DEGREE OF SPLIT OVER NC. AT THE MOMENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND 0.50" WITH THIS EVENT.
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TROUGHING
IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN US, THOUGH WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF COMPLEXITY OWING TO BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER
LOWS OVER CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US LATE IN THE WEEK, BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN REGION, BUT THE TRACK IS UNCERTAINTY, AND THERE ARE
SCENARIOS WHERE IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED AND NC IS MOSTLY DRY. THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO IFR, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR VSBYS WITHIN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. WHILE THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE LOW CIGS WILL HOLD UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THE
NW (INT/GSO/RDU), BUT ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AT RWI/FAY, AS A BACKDOOR FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC. AFTER SUNSET, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD BACK WESTWARD AND HOLD OVERNIGHT
AT RWI/FAY AND PERHAPS RDU, WITHIN THE MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW,
WHILE AT INT/GSO, THE CLOUD DECK AT 2500-3000 FT AGL MAY BE MORE SCT
THAN BKN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL BACKDOOR
FRONT PASSAGE, WHEN WINDS FROM THE NNE OR NE AT 12-16 KTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-28 KTS ARE EXPECTED, LASTING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, WHEN GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL HOLD AT 8-
12 KTS FROM THE NNE.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MON, MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
RDU/RWI/FAY INTO MON MORNING, WITH A NNE BREEZE PERSISTING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON AFTERNOON THEN DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY WED. AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION TUE,
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NW (INT/GSO), BUT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WED/WED EVENING AREAWIDE AS
A STRONGER LOW AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS MAY ALSO BRING GUSTY
WINDS LATE WED INTO THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/BLS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page