486
FXUS62 KRAH 080703
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND CONSIDERABLE MIXING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
1) AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS A RISK OF
A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
2) NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ALBEIT LOW IMPACT, WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AND, AGAIN MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BRINGS A RISK OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
MODEST 1018MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN TN
VALLEY WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION HAS DECREASED WITH PW VALUES
DOWN MORE THAN AN INCH FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH CURRENT VALUES BETWEEN
0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES. DESPITE THE DEEP LAYER DRYING, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WITH WEAK
FLOW AND THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS ONLY MARGINAL DRIER, EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FOG DENSE IN SPOTS WITH SOME
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT FROM ROXBORO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO SANFORD AND BURLINGTON
AND OVER TO ASHEBORO AND ALBEMARLE. THE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT IMPACTING MORE OF THE TRIANGLE AND
SANDHILLS TOWARD MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, THE SUN SHOULD BURN OFF THE
FOG AND INCREASING MIXING SHOULD ERODE ANY LINGERING STRATUS OR FOG
BY MID MORNING. IN FACT, THE FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT
DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S.
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ORIGINS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
MOVING FURTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW WILL ALLOW A QUICK RETURN OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FLIRT WITH 60 BY EVENING
WHILE PW VALUES CLIMB AND EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND THE THREAT OF SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
NEAR THE VA BORDER AND IN THE TRIAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE PALTRY
AND RANGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MORE LIKE SPRINKLES. SO ALL IN
ALL, THE RISK OF RAIN SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO CANCEL MOST OUTDOOR
PLANS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. -BLAES
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ALBEIT LOW IMPACT, WILL
COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AND, AGAIN MID-WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HIGHER
INSTABILITIES AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN EXITING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE SE PART OF NC EARLY SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A RATHER WEAK MID/UPPER SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CREEP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT; HOWEVER, AS OF RIGHT NOW MOST MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT ANOTHER
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS - INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY - MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN, THE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOWER CHANCES AND QPF APPEAR TO BE LOW IMPACT
WITH LOW QPF (LESS THAN 0.25) AND GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE NEXT CHANCE OF NEEDED
SHOWERS SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD TO EVEN COOL AT
TIMES AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S SUNDAY, AND MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND WHILE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS EXITING THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC, LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF STRATUS WITH ASSOCIATED IFR AND EVEN SOME
LIFR RESTRICTIONS. THE FOG IS MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE TRIAD EASTWARD TOWARD
THE WESTERN TRIANGLE AREAS WITH VSBYS OF 1/2 TO 1/4 OF A MILE. THESE
RESTRICTIONS ARE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KINT AND KGSO TERMINALS AND
SOUTHWEST OF KRDU. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FOG, AREAS OF IFR
CIGS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. IT'S A
DIFFICULT FORECAST DETERMINING WHETHER A WEAK INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ERODE AND DECREASE THE FOG AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL, WE
EXPECT THE FOG AREAS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AND SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE SUN
AND MIXING CLEARS OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DRIES OUT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
RISK OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH A RISK OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND ON SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES/PWB
AVIATION...BLAES
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