907
FXUS62 KRAH 092347
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
749 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
1) LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE HEAT CONCERNS PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
2) CONTINUED WARM SAT, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN THROUGH TUE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE HEAT
CONCERNS PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE ONE OR TWO VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE US-
1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA DOWN TO RICHMOND, AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, THE DEEPEST CLOUDS
ARE ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF US-1. DESPITE THESE EARLY RADAR ECHOES
ALONG US-1, STILL BELIEVE THAT THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONTAINED TO THE TRIAD DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ALL CONVECTION COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET.
FRIDAY'S PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALTHOUGH BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER, NEITHER THE AIR TEMPERATURE NOR THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME
DOWN MUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SAMPSON AND HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 8PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2... CONTINUED WARM SAT, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES SHIFT
SOUTH THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN
THROUGH TUE.
ALOFT, A S/W WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS THE FORMER
PROGRESSES ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT NWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, THEN SHIFT EWD OVER THE NRN/CNTL
PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN/N-CNTL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD-
SSWWD ACROSS THE AREA SUN/SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SWD
ACROSS AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY-MID WEEK, WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF/ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, THOUGH
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND
SUN. SPECIFIC DETAILS WRT INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE VARY
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WITH THE GFS MORE MOIST
AND NAM MORE UNSTABLE, BUT OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER THE FROPA SUN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE SAT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. MON SHOULD BE THE (RELATIVELY) COOLEST DAY,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S SE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 749 PM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
MAINLY IN THE PM HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A LOWER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM MONDAY, MAINLY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FROM INT/GSO/FAY, WITH ALL
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 10:
KRDU 99/1993 KFAY 103/1986
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 10: KGSO 77/1981 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 77/1998
JULY 11: KGSO 75/1992 KRDU: 77/1981 KFAY: 77/2024
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ088-089.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/10
AVIATION...BADGETT/GREEN
CLIMATE...RAH
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