313
FXUS62 KRAH 190600
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS INTO
MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
* THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
INTO MID-MORNING.
* CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO MIDDAY, WITH EMBEDDED STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
2) HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT INTO
MIDDAY, WITH A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
3) INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY-WPC ISSUES MARGINAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO MIDDAY, WITH EMBEDDED
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
NC, AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR
NORTHEAST GA AND UPSTATE SC. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, MOST GUIDANCE
TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS BY
SUNRISE, THEN TRACKING INTO THE OUTER BANKS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER FAST, SUCH THAT THE WINDOW FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL MIDDAY. BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL
NC, EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD LESSEN BY
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT AND TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WARMEST IN THE WEST WHERE THE SUN
BREAKS OUT SOONER.
ON THE SEVERE FRONT, A SEVERE RISK FROM SPC REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
MAIN SEVERE RISK, FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT AND SOME AI
GUIDANCE, IS FROM 4 AM UNTIL 11 AM TO MAYBE AS LATE AS NOON. DURING
THIS TIME IS WHEN THE OVERLAP OF LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL COMBINE
WITH THE INSTABILITY. IN FACT, UPSTREAM VWP HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN SC, INDICATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT COMING
INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO LATE MORNING AHEAD OF ARTHUR'S
REMNANTS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, A DAMAGING WIND THREAT REMAINS IN
PLACE, BUT ALSO AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THAT
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT,
SANDHILLS, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, HOWEVER IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT NEAR THE TRIANGLE AS WELL. WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THE
SEVERE RISK INTO THIS MORNING AS A RESULT.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL GREATLY DIMINISH. BUT A SMALL WINDOW OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TO SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. IF SOME STORMS CAN GET GOING, THEY DO HAVE FAVORABLE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT MOST CAMS SHOW LIMITED
COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT INTO MIDDAY, WITH A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ALONG WITH THE SEVERE RISK INTO THIS MORNING, THE 00Z HIGH-RES
ENSEMBLE DATA AND CAMS ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE OF 2-2.5 INCHES
IN PW, THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT APPEARS WARRANTED, DESPITE BEING
IN AN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
A LOOK AT THE 00Z HREF/REFS, THE TWO SEPARATE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOW REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES
STRETCHING FROM THE CHARLOTTE REGION, INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODELS CAN BE OFF
BY LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOOTPRINT BY SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. NEVERTHELESS, THE AGREEMENT SUGGESTS ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A REAL POSSIBILITY. THE MAIN HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT APPEARS
FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO MID-MORNING OVER URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THIS FLOOD RISK, WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SHORT-
FUSE NATURE OF THIS EVENT, AS WELL AS THE ONGOING DROUGHT. IF THE
FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS COME TO FRUITION, THIS COULD BE A
WELCOMED RELIEF GIVEN THE EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OVER THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3... INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY-WPC ISSUES
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON MONDAY, FOR WHICH THE WPC HAS ALREADY ISSUED A DAY 4 MARGINAL
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. DRIVEN BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST INTO OUR
AREA, THIS SETUP WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW-TO-MEDIUM REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND SEVERE RISK, THOUGH THE
LATEST AI-NWP CONVECTIVE MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW A 30–45% CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. BECAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, HEAT RISK VALUES WILL
REACH THE MAJOR CATEGORY (3 OUT OF 4) ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND
SANDHILLS. WHILE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE LOW-TO-MID
90S, HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE WITH WIDESPREAD CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTION FROM AROUND 08Z
THROUGH 14 TO 18Z.
THE RAIN ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE IN THE TRIAD (KINT AND KGSO) BETWEEN 06 AND 08Z AND AT KRDU,
KFAY AND KRWI BETWEEN 07 AND 09Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR
RANGE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE PRECIPITATION STARTING WITH
OCCASIONAL DROPS INTO IFR RANGE DURING HEAVIER RAIN EPISODES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE
LOW SO WILL EXCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING TO
MIDDAY HOURS WITH KINT/KGSO EXPECTED TO TREND TO VFR 14-16Z, KRDU
BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z WITH KFAY/KRWI TRENDING TO VFR BETWEEN 18 AND
20Z. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A VEIL OF PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK AND BECOME NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 TO 12KTS BETWEEN 16
AND 20Z WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT 6KTS OR LESS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SATURDAY, GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY
DAYBREAK STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A RISK OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 21: KRDU: 101/1933
JUNE 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 19: KRDU: 73/2025 KFAY: 77/2017
JUNE 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933
JUNE 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DISCUSSION...KREN/CA
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
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