555
FXUS62 KRAH 160729
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A BACKDOOR FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LOW OVERCAST HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE FARTHER SWWD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WILL RESULT IN
LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AT ALL CNTL NC TAF SITES EXCEPT PROBABLY FAY
THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...
1) RECORD HEAT TODAY WILL BE SWEPT OFFSHORE BY A STRONG COLD FRONT
AND FOLLOWING SHARPLY COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO SAT.
2) THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SUN MORNING AND
AGAIN MON MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... RECORD HEAT TODAY WILL BE SWEPT OFFSHORE BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING SHARPLY COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS
THAT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SAT.
AN INCREASINGLY-PHASED AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH, APPARENT IN GOES-E
WV SATELLITE DATA FROM NRN HUDSON BAY TO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS, WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE ERN US THROUGH LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT. A VIGOROUS UPPER
JET AND FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH, WITH A ZONE OF STRONG AND
DEEP ASCENT THAT WILL OVERSPREAD CNTL NC TONIGHT-SAT.
AT THE SURFACE, A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS DRIFTED INTO THE NRN SANDHILLS
AND THE NW PIEDMONT THIS MORNING, ABOUT 20-30 MILES FARTHER SWWD
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WHILE LOW OVERCAST HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
THE POS-TRONTAL REGIME AND WOULD TYPICALLY SLOW/RETARD SUBSEQUENT
NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT, COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE RELATED
FRONTAL INVERSION ARE NOT PRONOUNCED. ADDITIONALLY, THE MSL PRESSURE
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE FRONT OVER THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC, BETWEEN
A 1021 MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A ~1019 MB
ONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST, APPEAR TO BE REACHING EQUILIBRIUM
THIS MORNING. AS SUCH, IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
QUICKLY NWD WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING, IN STRENGTHENING FLOW
AND MASS RESPONSE AHEAD OF THE INTENSE TROUGH ALOFT AND A RELATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW DEEPENING ACROSS MI. A PRE-FRONTAL, APPALACHIAN-
LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRECEDE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CNTL NC TONIGHT.
A GROWING WARM SECTOR THROUGHOUT CNTL NC TODAY WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BETWEEN 85-90 F,
ACCOMPANIED BY A GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WIND THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY ~21-22Z, IN A REGIME OF WEAK MLCAPE OF
GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG, BUT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AS COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT EDGE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EWD AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CNTL NC THIS EVENING, ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION CHARACTER WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY STRATIFORM AND PROBABLY BLOSSOM AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AS THE INTENSE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND JET, AND DEEP ZONE OF
FGEN, OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS.
THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL THEN EDGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CNTL
NC DURING THE DAY SAT, WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH. IT WILL OTHERWISE TURN SHARPLY
COOLER, WITH HIGHS SAT 25-30 F BELOW THOSE OF TODAY AND ABOUT 10-15
F BELOW AVERAGE. A STRONG AND GUSTY NLY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COLD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON MORNING.
ALOFT, IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF WITHIN
THE PARENT TROUGH AS IT TRACKS SEWD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE
SAT/SAT NIGHT, THOUGH THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES WRT WHERE AND WHEN
THAT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW WILL LIKELY SIT/MEANDER NEAR OR JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, THE ~1036 MB HIGH SHOULD LIFT NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WHILE THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE, ALONG THE FRONT, ON SAT BEFORE CUTTING OFF FROM
THE PARENT TROUGH AND DEEPENING AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US/CAROLINA COAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT, POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT TO THIS
LOW AND ITS IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL NC. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUN,
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE
AND THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE LLJ COULD REMAIN QUITE STOUT ON THE
BACK (NW) SIDE OF THE LOW OFFSHORE THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 KTS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING ON SUN, HIGHEST EAST. THE JET MAY BE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT (25-40 KTS) BOTH NIGHTS AND OVER A MUCH LARGER
AREA, BUT THOSE STRONGER WINDS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STILL, SOME GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SUN NIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW MEMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD,
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WRT THE LOW OFFSHORE AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS.
FOR HIGHS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON
MON, BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOW TO MID 60S FORECAST.
FOR LOWS, WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, GENERALLY DECREASING
CLOUD COVER, AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1320 DAM SAT NIGHT,
WILL ERR ON THE MEAN FOR LOWS, RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 30S NW TO MID
40S SE. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LESS BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING TO AROUND 1335 DAM
SUN NIGHT, EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S
SE MON MORN. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING, WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW-MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT, INCREASING SLIGHTLY SE INTO THE LOW 40S SE FOR SUN NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME MID 30S LOWS IN THE USUAL COOLER, SHELTERED
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT SUN AND MON MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES
CLEAR OUT, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FROST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
A BACKDOOR FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LOW OVERCAST HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE FARTHER SWWD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WILL RESULT IN
LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AT ALL CNTL NC TAF SITES EXCEPT PROBABLY FAY
THIS MORNING. THE NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC TODAY SHOULD CAUSE THE OVERCAST TO DISPERSE AND LIFT AROUND
12Z, WITH FOLLOWING VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SWLY WINDS THAT WILL
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
INVOF INT/GSO BY ~21-22Z, THEN LINGER UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND GUSTY
NWLY SURFACE WINDS MOVES THROUGH CNTL NC LATER THIS EVENING-TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF STRATIFORM, ANAFRONTAL RAIN WILL BLOSSOM BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT, WITH RELATED LOW VFR
TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS, AS AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND JET
STREAK PIVOT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NLY
AND REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, IN A TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT, A RISK OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 16:
KGSO: 85/1953
KRDU: 86/1925
KFAY: 90/1925
LATEST 90 F DAYS:
GSO: 10/12/1904
RDU: 10/14/2026
FAY: 10/26/1940
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS/KCP
AVIATION...MWS
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