722
FXUS62 KRAH 262240
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
1) MUCH COOLER TONIGHT, RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A FEW SYSTEMS THAT COULD
BRING MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL NC INTO EARLY MAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH COOLER TONIGHT, RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, A S/W WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WAS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS OF 16Z, WHILE A REINFORCING FRONT WAS SLIDING
SWD ACROSS THE SRN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND SRN COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD AND WEAKENING
MON/MON NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERS IN THE BEHIND THE REINFORCING
FRONT, WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS ALONG IT. IT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY ANY THUNDER WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NC WITH THE SHOWERS GIVEN
THE EARLIER TIMING AND LOWER INSTABILITY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH HIGHS NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGREES NE TO LOW 70S SW. THAT MAY BE OVERDONE WHERE RAIN
LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. NNELY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFT AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN
STIRRED/BREEZY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S EXPECTED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON AND TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A FEW
SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL NC INTO
EARLY MAY.
THE FORECAST FOR WED WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN. A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TUES EVENING NEGATIVELY TILTS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WED MORNING. THIS
WAVE ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LVL
JET STREAK WILL SUPPLY DEEP LIFT WITHIN A PLUME OF RICHER PWAT OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES. REASONABLE LOW-END AMOUNTS SHOW AT LEAST MEASURABLE
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5". IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER-LVL MOISTURE BAND, CONTINUED MOIST AND WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS; ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TROUGHING
IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN US, THOUGH WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF COMPLEXITY OWING TO BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER
LOWS OVER CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US LATE IN THE WEEK, BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN REGION, BUT THE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN, AND THERE ARE
SCENARIOS WHERE IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED AND NC IS MOSTLY DRY. THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF AIFS ENSEMBLE IS LIKELY
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL NC, WHICH FEATURES A LOW TRACK
GENERALLY ACROSS GA/SC AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH 50-60%
PROBABILITIES OF > 0.5", MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH NC/SC BORDER.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...
AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR
TAF PERIOD. WHILE POCKETS OF VFR HAVE DEVELOPED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE TRIAD TERMINALS, SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ADDITIONAL MVFR
STRATUS MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF VA IN THE COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW THESE MVFR
CEILINGS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRIAD TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT
RDU/FAY/RWI INTO MON MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR WILL BE
QUICKEST TO ERODE AT GSO/INT AROUND 11/12Z AND LATEST AT FAY/RWI
BETWEEN 16-17Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
EARLIER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED, BUT GIVEN THE MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS SOONER. NE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER
AT GSO/INT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
STORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THU AND FRI.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/AS
AVIATION...KREN
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