135
FXUS62 KRAH 021910
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...
1) A TRANSITION TO COOLER, WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A TRANSITION TO COOLER, WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
SATURDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR A LARGE RANGE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW,
WITH THE FORECAST RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
80S IN THE SOUTH. DURING THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH. THIS RAIN HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ACCORDING TO LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.
AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT, COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BUILD IN. THIS MAY RESULT IN A CAD WEDGE TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
RETROGRADE NORTH, BACK INTO CENTRAL NC. THESE TWO THINGS SHOULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER RAIN TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MOST MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BETWEEN 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN
SATURDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SIGNALS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN COULD DEVELOP, MOSTLY
IN THE SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO MID
70S, WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY. LOWS LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WLY-SWLY WINDS, WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS, EXPECTED THIS AFT, DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING
VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED 3-5 KFT CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFT/EVE, WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SUB-VFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP AT KFAY, KRWI, AND POSSIBLY KRDU, AROUND DAYBREAK.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM EARLY SAT MORN
THROUGH SAT AFT, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NELY WITH THE FROPA, THEN
INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S KTS
POSSIBLE (MOST LIKELY AT KINT, KGSO, AND KRDU) A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT. AT KINT AND KGSO, MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFAY AND KRDU FROM AROUND MID-DAY
ONWARD, WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KINT AND KGSO.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN
WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LH
AVIATION...10/BLAES
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