017
FXUS62 KRAH 112359
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
* WE'RE UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...
1) A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
2) ON SUNDAY, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHTTIME.
3) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOME OF THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN A MONTH.
4) HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURN BY WEDNESDAY, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
RETURN BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ONE MCV HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST THAT PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON IN FRANKLIN AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES IN
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ADDITIONAL MCV IS UPSTREAM OVER SW VIRGINIA MOVING
SE TOWARD THE REGION. ALSO, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
VA. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF STORMS GOING TONIGHT AND
THE FRONT WILL STALL SUNDAY KEEPING HIGH POP FOR THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ON SUNDAY, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO NC TONIGHT
AND STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER SUN, AS THE WEAK MID-
UPPER LOW OVER KY AND ITS SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS VA INTO THE NW
ATLANTIC SETTLE SLOWLY TO THE SSE. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH PWS RISING TO ~120% OF NORMAL, AND THE INFLUENCE OF PASSING
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT (PERHAPS INCLUDING A REMNANT MCV FROM TODAY'S
CONVECTION FROM N AR TO W TN) AND THE FRONTAL PRESENCE TO SERVE AS A
FOCUS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, GREATEST
ACROSS OUR S HALF. THE 18Z RAP SHOWS A WARM CLOUD DEPTH EXCEEDING 4
KM SUN, FAVORING WARM RAIN PROCESSES, AND SEVERAL MODELS AND
MODELING SYSTEMS SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES
AND RAINFALL, INCLUDING THE HREF'S NEIGHBORHOOD PROB OF 1"/3 HRS OF
70-90+% ALONG AND S OF A LINE FROM INT TO GSB, AND THE REFS'S
DEPICTION OF WIDESPREAD 0.75-1.25" ACROSS MUCH OF OUR W AND S.
DESPITE OUR ONGOING DRY AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA, HIGH
RAINFALL RATES CAN STILL YIELD FLOODING, ESP IN URBAN AREAS.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST COVERAGE PRECLUDE
DOING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED IF THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE TRAINING AND CONGEALING CELLS INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME OF THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MORE
THAN A MONTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY,
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER GEORGIA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
SOME INSTABILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SINCE NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE A TRUE COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO, BUT WITH THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES, IT MAY FEEL LIKE A CAD EVENT IS OCCURRING - THE
FORECAST HIGHS FOR GREENSBORO AND RDU HAVE NOT OCCURRED SINCE JUNE
2. REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE, THIS WILL BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY CONSIDERING HOW WARM JUNE AND THE START OF JULY HAVE
BEEN.
KEY MESSAGE 4... HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURN BY WEDNESDAY, SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES RETURN BY FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE RESPITE FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EARLY IN THE WEEK,
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PUSHING EAST INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE RAW GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH TEMPERATURES, SHOWING
MULTIPLE DAYS IN THE 100S, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE REASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY, THE HEAT INDEX WILL
ENTER THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN AREA FROM RALEIGH
NORTH INTO DC AND NORTHEAST INTO PHILADELPHIA OUTLOOKED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. IT IS RARE FOR SPC TO PUT AN
OUTLOOK IN OUR AREA THIS MANY DAYS OUT, BUT WHEN THEY DO, IT USUALLY
VERIFIES WITH SOME AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER. IF THIS IS THE CASE,
THURSDAY COULD END UP BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN,
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 755 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 15Z/SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ABOUT 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
ANY ONE TAF SITE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUN, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE, WITH THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THERE WILL BE A LOWERING OF OVERCAST FROM
MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR EARLY MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DWINDLE FOR TUE-THU WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 11: KRDU: 99/1993
JULY 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887 KFAY: 103/1937
JULY 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 11: KGSO: 75/1992 KRDU: 77/1981 KFAY: 77/2024
JULY 16: KGSO: 75/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 78/1992
JULY 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD/GREEN
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
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