073
FXUS62 KRAH 150116
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LITTLE TO NO CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
1) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES
DISCUSSION
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER BEGINS THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND SETTLES NEAR
BERMUDA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HOT WEATHER AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING SETS IN OFF THE SE US COAST. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 90S. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TOWARD SEASONABLY MOIST LEVELS NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON
VALUES WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERITY OF THE HEAT, COMPARED TO THE PEAK
PART OF SUMMER WHEN DEWPOINTS CAN BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
NEVERTHELESS, THE HEAT RISK CATEGORY REACHES A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4) THRESHOLD. AS WE SAW IN APRIL DURING THE TWO HEAT WAVE EVENTS,
EARLY SEASON HEAT CAN RESULT IN A RAPID RISE IN HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES DUE TO PEOPLE BEING LESS ACCLIMATED TO THE TEMPERATURES.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, THEY APPEAR PRETTY LIMITED. WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GETS
DELAYED A DAY OR SO, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR OUR NEXT
WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
ACTIVITY SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. BUT EVEN SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS KEEP US DRY THROUGH FRI.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941
MAY 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911
MAY 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022
MAY 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018
MAY 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022
MAY 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN
AVIATION...PWB
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