945
FXUS62 KRAH 221132
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL EXITING THE REGION
EARLY TO MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AS THEY MOVE IN MID
MORNING IN THE WEST AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY IN THE LOW 40S NORTH, AND AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SW WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST FROM 9PM TO 1AM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING BACK IN ON SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND!
NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE DAY OFF, AND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST, EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE W/SW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...
* MILD, WITH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES PEAKING ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG
TUE-THU
* A CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THU
* COOLER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FRI
A COUPLE OF MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGES WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN
NOAM AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE ROCKIES MID-LATE THIS WEEK.
DOWNSTREAM, INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE, SHORT WAVELENGTH FLOW
WILL AMPLIFY AND CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON THU AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON FRI.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/MODIFY
WHILE DRIFTING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS MON-WED, AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED-THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI.
THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
FROM THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S ON MON TO SOLIDLY IN THE 60S, TO AROUND 70
ACROSS SRN NC, TUE-THU. RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN
THE WRN NC PIEDMONT EARLY THU MORNING, CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
CNTL NC THROUGH THE DAY, AND LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, TO
NEAR 60S IN SRN NC, WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THE REGION MID MORNING,
THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WITH LOWERING BASES
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z TODAY. CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN VFR, AND NO VISBY
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY CALM TO LIGHT AND EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WILL INCLUDE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CA
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