798
FXUS62 KRAH 100649
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY, WITH UNUSUAL AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT THU/FRI. THE HEAT MAY ABATE A BIT SAT,
BUT TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN.
2) AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY, WITH
UNUSUAL AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT THU/FRI. THE HEAT MAY
ABATE A BIT SAT, BUT TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD BERMUDA TODAY, ALLOWING WARM
AND HUMID AIR TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NC. AFTER MILD READINGS
TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES TODAY WITH THICKNESSES A FEW M ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE
PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION,
ALONG WITH SCATTERED LATE-DAY STORMS OF OUR OWN OVER THE PIEDMONT
PROMPTED IN PART BY A BAGGY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION, SHOULD HELP CURB INSOLATION AND KEEP OUR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. AS THICKNESSES REBOUND TO 10-20 M ABOVE NORMAL
THU/FRI, WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE,
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100, HOTTEST FRI.
THESE HIGHS THU/FRI MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS, AND GIVEN THE
ADDED HEAT STRESS FROM WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, THE
RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES WILL INCREASE, AND A HEAT ADVISORY OR OTHER
HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED. THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC HEAT
RISK SHOWS A 70-95% CHANCE OF REACHING THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3
OF 4) OVER ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL NC THU/FRI, INDICATING THAT
SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE HEALTH IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL POPULATIONS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION, AND HEAT ILLNESSES MAY
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FOR THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
FRI, WHEN AN AREA FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH TO FAYETTEVILLE HAS A 50%
CHANCE OF EXTREME VALUES (LEVEL 4 OF 4) OF HEAT RISK. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER SAT ONWARD BY A CATEGORY OR SO AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH A DIP IN THE WESTERLIES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, INCREASING THE CHANCE THAT WE'LL SEE GREATER
COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION COMPLEXES,
ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF IN SITU AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID, AND THE HEAT STRESS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, STALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. QPF BY THE MODELS REMAINS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCH TOTALS
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER TODAY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (RESULTING
FROM THE DEBRIS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION) WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
TODAY. CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT MOST CENTRAL NC OBSERVATION
SITES, BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND W SANDHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND THROUGH DAYBREAK, RESULTING
IN A PROBABLE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z THIS MORNING. VSBYS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY GO MVFR 10Z-
13Z AT INT/GSO. AFTER 14Z, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DOMINATE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N PIEDMONT AFTER 19Z, PERHAPS AFFECTING
INT/GSO 18Z-23Z AND RDU 19Z-01Z WITH A CHANCE FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS
AND ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL BE A LOWER CHANCE AT RWI/FAY,
WHERE CONVECTION WON'T BE MENTIONED FOR NOW. AFTER 01Z, EXPECT
LARGELY MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SSW OR SW, UNDER 10 KTS UNTIL 13Z AND AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE AROUND 9-14 KTS WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 15-20
KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z THU, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AREAWIDE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. AND AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 10: KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
JUNE 15: KRDU: 99/2015 KFAY: 101/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 10: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 76/2020
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 16: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2015
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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