148
FXUS62 KRAH 231030
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 155 AM MONDAY...
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 155 AM MONDAY...
1) THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM IN
AREAS WEST OF I-95, DUE TO THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF VERY DRY
FUELS, BLUSTERY WINDS, AND FALLING HUMIDITY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRI-SAT, BUT
SPECIFICS ARE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 155 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY FROM 3 PM
TO 10 PM IN AREAS WEST OF I-95, DUE TO THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
VERY DRY FUELS, BLUSTERY WINDS, AND FALLING HUMIDITY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT (IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE DROP) WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. WITH A NARROW ZONE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PW, A DRY WNW
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW YIELDING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF EITHER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OR SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT, PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS VERY
LIMITED, WITH ONLY AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95 EXPECTED TO SEE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR
TWO MAINLY SE OF A GSB-CTZ LINE. WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THESE SW
WINDS AT 40-50 KTS AT 1500-2500 FT AGL WILL BE HELD ALOFT UNTIL THE
ONSET AND DEEPENING OF MIXING DURING THE MID MORNING. BY THIS TIME,
THE 925-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE AREA,
AND WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT,
THEY'LL STILL BE BLUSTERY ENOUGH WITH DEEP MIXING TO YIELD SURFACE
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AS DEWPOINTS CRASH POST-FRONT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY,
SURFACE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 25-30% RANGE. THIS COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND DROPPING RH ALONG WITH VERY DRY FINE FUELS (AMIDST AN
ONGOING DROUGHT OVER THE AREA) WILL BRING ABOUT CONCERNS FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS W OF I-95 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED, AS ANY FIRES WILL BE
CAPABLE OF QUICKLY GETTING OUT OF CONTROL AND BECOMING VERY
DANGEROUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRI-SAT, BUT SPECIFICS ARE UNCERTAIN.
A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THU/THU NIGHT, AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT, APPROACHING FROM THE NW, MOVES INTO THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FROPA, BUT SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THE FRONT, SWINGING FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THU NIGHT/FRI, TO BELOW-WELL BELOW NORMAL SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT
COULD BE 15-25 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRI, WHILE LOWS FRI NIGHT COULD BE
10-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THU NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TRACK SE THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MORE IMPORTANT WILL BE THE ANTICIPATED WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT: FIRST, THERE IS A RISK OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS, A RESULT OF A 40-45
KT JET FROM THE SW AT 1500-2000 FT AGL, LASTING UNTIL 13Z-14Z. THEN,
WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING BY MID MORNING, THESE WINDS WILL START TO
MIX TO THE GROUND, RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS GUSTING
TO 22-26 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING,
ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER 04Z. WINDS FROM THE SW
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE WNW THEN NW MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, STARTING FIRST WITH INT/GSO THEN SHIFTING
AT RDU AND FINALLY AT RWI/FAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
MINIMAL, AND WHILE RWI AND FAY MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON, THE RISK OF ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS VERY SMALL.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL
INCREASE LATE FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 23:
KFAY: 86/1948
MARCH 27:
KGSO: 86/1921
KRDU: 87/2007
KFAY: 87/1946
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 27:
KGSO: 60/2007
KFAY: 65/1949
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
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