557
FXUS62 KRAH 261000 CCA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND EXTENDED HEAT WAVE IS POSSIBLE.
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NC, EXCEPT NORTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH WHERE SLIGHT RISK IS
LOCATED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
1) A HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND EXTENDED HEAT WAVE IS POSSIBLE.
2) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE JULY
4TH WEEKEND. A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND EXTENDED HEAT WAVE IS
POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE A LOT MORE DISCUSSION ON THE HEAT TOPIC IN THE COMING
DAYS, BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THE TIME IS NOW THAT PREPARATIONS ARE MADE
FOR A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND EXTENDED HEAT WAVE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY, JULY 1ST, THEN PEAKING THE WEEKEND OF JULY 4TH.
MODELS FORECAST AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BEGINNING MID NEXT WEAK, THEN PEAKING ON POSSIBLY THE
JULY 4TH WEEKEND. FOR NORTH CAROLINA, THE FORECAST MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OH VALLEY SOUTH TO THE TN VALLEY
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS HISTORICALLY THE FAVORED LOCATION OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE POSITIONS THAT HAVE BROUGHT PAST HEAT WAVES TO OUR
REGION.
IN ADDITION, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE H85 RANGE ARE
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE NEAR OR EXCEED RECORD HIGH VALUES. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, LACK OF CLOUDS, DRY GROUND, AND
A DOWNSLOPE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW - COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD A NEAR
HISTORICAL HEAT EVENT BRINGING VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
BOTTOM LINE... BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS
POSSIBLY 100+ FOR 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, DAYTIME APPARENT
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY PEAKING AT 105+ IN THE TRIAD, AND 105-112
ELSEWHERE WED-SAT. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME DROPPING BELOW 80, WITH 90 STILL POSSIBLE AT MIDNIGHT.
THE SPECIFICS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. HOWEVER, BEGIN
PREPPING FOR EXCESSIVE AND DANGEROUS HEAT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, JULY
1.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY.
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER, CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEAK MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITHIN
MODEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND A
DEVELOPING INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ADVANCE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY, WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG BENEATH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME, EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR INCREASES INTO THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE, SUPPORTING BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION THAN TODAY. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY
(SLIGHT NORTHEAST OF RDU WITH MARGINAL ELSEWHERE) WITH THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS, AIDED BY
INVERTED-V SOUNDING CHARACTERISTICS, LARGE SUB-CLOUD DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, AND EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LOCALIZED REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RDU TODAY.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE AT
KFAY BETWEEN 21-03Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND
18 KT BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP CAN
PRODUCE LOCALIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH QUICK WIND SHIFTS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH VERY
PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS.
OUTLOOK... DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. THE GREATEST AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ASIDE FROM
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/NP
AVIATION...NP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page