835
FXUS62 KRAH 272339
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
738 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS OVERALL, BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE NORTH AND
WEST INCLUDING THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
2) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
3) A DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS MONDAY
WHEN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LOOKS GREATER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS OVERALL, BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE
NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE. A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WE REMAIN IN A MOIST SW FLOW REGIME, ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
OFFSHORE-CENTERED RIDGING AND IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF A WEAK FRONT
TO OUR N OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MASON DIXON LINE. OUR PW REMAINS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING DIPPING INTO THE N MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST HAS TAMPED
DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING, CAUSING OUR MID LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO
MORE WESTERLY. BUT WE'RE STILL SEEING MODERATE SBCAPE IN THE 2000-
3000 J/KG RANGE, WITH DECENT HEATING HAVING STARTED WITH THE LIFTING
OF THE MORNING MULTI-LAYER STRATUS, AND OUR DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS
AROUND 30 KTS, A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. REGIONAL RADAR
TRENDS ARE FITTING FAIRLY WELL WITH EARLIER CAM OUTPUT SHOWING SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NE SC ACROSS SE NC,
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE NC AND SW VA MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THESE TWO AREAS SHOULD CULMINATE IN PEAKS OF
SHOWER/STORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE N PIEDMONT/FAR N COASTAL PLAIN AS
WELL AS THE E SANDHILLS ACROSS THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE IMPROVED BULK SHEAR FOSTERING BETTER CELL
ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER DCAPE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THERE'S A RISK FOR
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE N PIEDMONT INTO THE
N COASTAL PLAIN. ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE WHERE
CELLS CAN TRAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE URBAN PIEDMONT AREAS
LIKE THE TRIAD AREA CITIES AND TOWNS WHICH SAW 1-3" YESTERDAY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE AND EXIT OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SE COASTAL PLAIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE S AND E.
AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH SETTLES S INTO NC THU WITH A WEAKENING
TREND, POPS WILL BE LARGELY SHIFTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF, MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF HWY 64, AS SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS SETTLE INTO OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR SE, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY STRONG STORMS
LOOKS QUITE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, THOUGH OVERALL
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON
FRIDAY ACCORDING TO RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLES. THUS FRIDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND LARGELY FREE OF PRECIPITATION, WITH FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES FROM LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON (FIRST
IN THE SW) AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES RIDES EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT GIVEN ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES,
OVERALL COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR HIGH. STILL,
THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW AND BOUNDARY ARE
ABLE TO GET, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN. CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE
COMFORTABLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER-70S TO
LOWER-80S (NEAR NORMAL) AND DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 50S. FORECAST
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FROM SUNDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WHEN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LOOKS GREATER.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND
WILL DROP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY PUT AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES BY
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT AS WE REMAIN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH DAY WITH DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH AND MARGINAL DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVES SE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND MID-ATLANTIC. STILL, ENSEMBLE
MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH AS PW VALUES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER-80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 738 PM WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI THROUGH
AROUND 03Z; OTHERWISE, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THUS, THE SW SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY DAYBREAK, THEN
NORTHERLY BETWEEN MID MORNING AND NOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THEN, AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
TRACKS WEST TO EAST OVER SC SATURDAY BRIEF SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH NC LATE SATURDAY, AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
SUN/MON.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006
MAY 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/DANCO
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
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