851
FXUS62 KRAH 220711 RRA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MARGINAL RISK INTRODUCED ACROSS NC/VA BORDER COUNTIES FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST.
* CONTINUED DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 239 PM THURSDAY...
1) INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER.
2) COOL AND RAINY OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN
FRI AND SAT WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE, WARMER WITH SOME CONVECTION
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEDGE.
2) THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE IT WON'T BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, POCKETS OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 239 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A FEW AREAS OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 1) A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
SURGING THROUGH VA, 2) A WAVERING SFC LOW OVER THE OUTER BANKS, AND
3) WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS HAVE TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND OUR TRIAD
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BLOSSOM WITH TIME ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED TO 8 TO 9 C/KM.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG OUR NC/VA BORDER MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WHILE SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA TODAY, 20 TO 25 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST TO OUR NORTH IN VA BEFORE
SAGGING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER. IF A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAN DEVELOP, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE OF
800 TO 1000 J/KG). WHILE A LESSER THREAT TODAY, A FEW ROTATING CELLS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN LATER
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS VICINITY INDICATE BACKED
FLOW NEAR THE SFC JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW. NOT
SURE IF ENOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT (NEAR SUNDOWN),
NOR IF LCLS WOULD BE LOW ENOUGH, BUT AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
HYDRO WISE, THE LATEST REFS AND HREF LPMM OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FEW SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE GENERAL VICINITY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND
WEST OF US-1 (ADDITIONALLY UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN).
GIVEN THE RECENT DROUGHT, THINK THE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED PONDING IN LOW-LYING
AREAS/URBAN AREAS ALONG WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT.
POST-FRONTAL GUSTY NELY FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT INTO TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE STEADIER PRECIP TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COOL AND RAINY OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND NRN
COASTAL PLAIN FRI AND SAT WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE, WARMER WITH
SOME CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEDGE.
ALOFT, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. A S/W WILL FOLLOW, LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A CAD AIR MASS SHOULD SET UP
THU NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
ACROSS THE NW AND NRN PIEDMONT/NRN COASTAL PLAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND OFFSHORE RIDGES SWD INTO THE
AREA. WITH WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE COOL, STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITHIN THE WEDGE, EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN TO PREVAIL.
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WEDGE, AN INVERTED TROUGH AND THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SHOP, GENERALLY FROM THE SW
PIEDMONT TO CNTL COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THOSE AREAS. STILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO ERODE
SOMETIME SAT NIGHT/SUN.
PRECIPITATION: IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT, WARM AIR ADVECTING
IN ABOVE THE COOLER, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SAT OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT, WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE AIRMASS EACH DAY. WHERE/WHEN
THE WEDGE ERODES AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE AREA, THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WHILE RAIN WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF IT.
TEMPERATURES: THERE IS STILL SOME BUST POTENTIAL WRT HIGHS ON FRI
AND SAT GIVEN THE WEDGE AIR MASS IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
CONTINUED RAIN INTO IT. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S SOUTH, BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
ON SAT, WITH THE WEDGE LINGERING, HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM UPR 60S NW TO MID 80S SE. LOWS FRI NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3... THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE
IT WON'T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, POCKETS
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A S/W OR TWO CLIPPING THE
AREA AS THEY PASS TO THE NORTH. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NWWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST US TO THE UPR MS VALLEY
THROUGH WED. AT THE SURFACE, THE WEDGE SHOULD ERODE BY SUN NIGHT AS
A LOW TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST US COASTS.
SLY TO SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND A STRENGTHENING, SWD SINKING BERMUDA
HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
WRT PRECIPITATION SPECIFICS FROM SUN ONWARD, HOWEVER DO EXPECT
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE ANY GIVEN DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT NECESSARILY, THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC EACH
AFT/EVE. GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR STRATUS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES ALL OF CENTRAL
NC EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH (INCLUDING FAY), AND IT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FAR SOUTH AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH, INCLUDING
AROUND INT, GSO, RDU AND RWI. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE NORTH AS WELL FROM BOTH RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG/MIST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL EXIT BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.
HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO LIFT, WITH
INT/GSO ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH IFR AND RDU/RWI ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH MVFR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAD
REGIME INCLUDING FAY IS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN ON FRIDAY EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AGAIN MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AS THE CAD REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION. CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST (INCLUDING FAY AND RWI), WHILE INT AND GSO SHOULD
STAY LARGELY IFR/LIFR THE ENTIRE TIME. THE CAD REGIME WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT LOW STRATUS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 21:
KRDU: 96/1941
KFAY: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 21:
KGSO: 67/2022
KRDU: 71/1898
KFAY: 71/2025
MAY 22:
KFAY: 73/2004
MAY 23:
KFAY: 72/2011
MAY 24:
KRDU: 70/2011
KFAY: 72/2000
MAY 25:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 71/2019
KFAY: 71/2019
MAY 26:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 73/2011
KFAY: 75/2004
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/10
AVIATION...DANCO
CLIMATE...RAH
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