597
FXUS62 KRAH 290006
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
806 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST.
* AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
1) MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) LOW PRESSURE OFF FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW IS IN QUEBEC TO THE NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
HURON INTO OHIO AND SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST, REMAINING TO THE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A WET MORNING COMMUTE IN THE TRIAD,
WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THIS LINE OF RAIN, INSTABILITY ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF I-95 BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BETWEEN
THE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE MORE CLEARING THAT OCCURS, THE
MORE SURFACE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WHICH WOULD FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH FOR ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER
ANY INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS,
IT WOULD LIKELY BE WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF SUNSET. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. OVERALL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND
A HALF INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LOW PRESSURE OFF FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST, MOVING OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO GEORGIA AND THE GULF COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ORIGINALLY HAVING A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION, THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST, WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. AS A STRONGER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT, THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
TOO MUCH WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL CYCLE, AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL
HIGHEST IN BOTH OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND COULD RANGE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH AND AN INCH.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 805 PM TUESDAY...
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO HANG ON LONGER THAN ANY OTHER
FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE 00Z TAFS ARE MORE ON THE PESSIMISTIC END OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS MVFR AT THE PIEDMONT TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST. LATEST FORECAST GRADUALLY
LOWERS CIGS TO IFR IN THE TRIAD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING
IFR WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. SINCE MOST GUIDANCE DID NOT INITIALIZE
VERY WELL, THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE CIG FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AND SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS BAND TO FLEETING MVFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW, BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CIG FORECAST, TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION
IS EQUALLY LOW.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...AS/MWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page