978
FXUS62 KRAH 082345
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
* HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8PM
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) SCATTERED STORMS AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN; BOTH HAZARDS
ARE OF LESS CONCERN ON THURSDAY.
2) CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE DRYING OUT EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED WARM FRI
AND SAT, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SCATTERED STORMS AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN; BOTH HAZARDS ARE OF LESS CONCERN ON THURSDAY.
A STATIONARY FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AND
IS NOTICEABLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE, EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST IN THE VICINITY OF VUJ, SOP, AND FAY. IT IS JUST NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED IN A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE WIND SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE,
THE CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG AND DCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. PEAK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY FROM
5-8PM THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LESS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY
THE SAME BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND DROP HEAT
INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE DRYING OUT EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
CONTINUED WARM FRI AND SAT, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUN AND MON.
ALOFT, A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE REGION AS A S/W
PROGRESSES ESEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY FRI/FRI
NIGHT. THE S/W WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES ESEWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A
MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRI/SAT, THEN LIFT NWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EWD OVER THE
NRN/CNTL PLAINS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL GET
PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN/N-
CNTL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SAT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SWD-SSWWD ACROSS
THE AREA SUN/MON, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE RIDGE MAY REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW
LIFTS NEWD ALONG AND OFF THE EAST COAST TUE/WED, BUT DETAILS ARE
LESS CLEAR THAT FAR OUT. EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SAT AND SUN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE WARMEST
DAY SHOULD BE FRI, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 90S NW TO UPPER 90S
SE. SUN AND MON SHOULD BE THE (RELATIVELY) COOLEST DAYS, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM LOW-MID 80S N AND NW TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES S
AND SE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IF A
THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER A TERMINAL, EXPECT LOWERED VISIBILITIES,
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. ALSO, SOME OF THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY
HAVE SOME HAIL UP TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. OVERNIGHT AFTER THE
RAIN EXITS THE AREA, LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
NORTHEAST (RWI). HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT
IT WILL FORM LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM, BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY TOMORROW. STORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO DECREASE TOMORROW, SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES AT
ANY TAF SITES, HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN
SITES STARTING AROUND 21Z.
OUTLOOK: BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/10
AVIATION...LH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page