353
FXUS62 KRAH 291834
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
1) SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF RALEIGH
ON SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
2) A MAINLY DRY AND COOLER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FROM SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY, OTHER THAN MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
SOUTH OF RALEIGH ON SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL ZONE
LIFTS BACK NORTH.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TODAY OVER
NORTHERN GA AND CENTRAL SC WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS FROM A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ALSO MOVE EAST, INDUCING A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING, RESULTING IN DRY AIR FILTERING BACK IN
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AROUND 10-12Z, FROM THE TRIAD
EAST TO THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT. NORTH OF THAT LINE SHOULD STAY
DRY, BUT SOUTH OF THERE, SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS
1000+ J/KG BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-60S AS MOISTURE POOLS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75"). IN ADDITION, THE STRONG
DEW POINT GRADIENT, SURFACE WAVE, AND WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION.
THUS THE CAMS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AND CONGEAL INTO A SOLID LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM ABOUT
14Z TO 20Z BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES TO THE SOUTH. FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS DOWN THERE WILL BE WEAK (LESS THAN 20 KTS), SO SHEAR WILL
NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CONFIDENCE
IN TOTALS IS NOT HIGH, AS LOWER-RES GUIDANCE LIKE THE GFS AND ECMWF
ONLY DEPICTS LIGHT AMOUNTS WHILE THE 12Z HREF LPMM DEPICTS ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-3". GIVEN THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THOSE
AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SATURDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A MAINLY DRY AND COOLER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FROM
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, OTHER THAN MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DROP A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SW INTO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY EVENING, PUTTING
AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS COOL DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID-50S. A MOSTLY DRY
PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A CLASSIC OMEGA-
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP, WITH MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
US AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTRAL US
AND CANADA. WE WILL BE LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC TROUGH.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE DRYNESS IS MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND PW VALUES ABOUT 100-125% OF NORMAL. BASED ON THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS, MOST PLACES SHOULD RECEIVE LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH, BUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE QPF INDICATES
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 1" CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE SE.
A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH ATLANTIC TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, BUT THE AIR
MASS WILL BE SO DRY BY THIS POINT THAT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE AT BEST IN EASTERN ZONES. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN
INTO A CYCLONE THAT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S AS A PIECE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WE WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
NORTH ATLANTIC TROUGHING FINALLY PUSHES EAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER-80S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT MOST SITES, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT FAY. A FRONT THAT HAS
BEEN STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND AT MOST TERMINALS. WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
THE PRIMARY AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND FAY.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY, AND IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
INT/GSO/RDU/RWI, BUT HAVE ADDED LIKELY SHOWERS AND VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS TO FAY BY LATE MORNING. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT
FAY SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH PRECIPITATION, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS IN EITHER CEILING OR VISIBILITY. ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY IS NOT LIKELY TO BRING ANY
RAINFALL, BUT SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT FAY SHOULD BE WANING
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 00Z
SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT FAY. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO
AVIATION...GREEN
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