753
FXUS62 KRAH 031815
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
1) MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG,
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND PLACES US WITHIN A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW, OUR DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 MPH/15-20 MPH
MONDAY, WITH MIN RH OF 25-35% IN THE PIEDMONT AND 35-40% IN THE
EAST. BY TUESDAY, SUSTAINED SPEEDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT
12-18 MPH/20-30 MPH WITH MIN RH VALUES OF AROUND 30-40%. NONE OF
THESE VALUES QUITE REACHES LEVELS STRONGLY SUGGESTING AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER, BUT WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND STILL-DRY FUELS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, THERE MAY BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR ADVERSE
FIRE BEHAVIOR BOTH DAYS. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NW CWA,
WHICH SAW VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL SAT. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS
AND CONFER WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG, TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM MID-WEEK. THERE IS SOME
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/W WITH THE
SRN STREAM LOW/TROUGH OVER THE BAJA. HOWEVER, THE SRN STREAM LOW
GETS CUTOFF FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
TROUGH CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE CNTL AND ERN CONUS WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT/WED, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH INCREASED ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW A BIT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NEWD ALONG IT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WRT THE STRENGTH, TRACK, TIMING OF THE LOW
AND SUBSEQUENT FROPA ON THU. THE MOST LIKELY FROPA TIMING IS STILL
THU EVE OR EARLY THU NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE
AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST US IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON
WED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE, COVERAGE AND CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
THE S/W ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON WED, THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS, WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE
STABLE, WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG. FOR THU, EXPECT A HIGH SHEAR, LOW
CAPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60+ KTS
BUT CAPE OF 500 J/KG OR LESS AND MAX PWATS OF 1.5-1.7" (BASED ON THE
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION ARRIVING EARLY COULD BOTH LIMIT THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
WITH THE FROPA THU AFT/EVE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE
FORECAST EVOLVES FOR BOTH WED AND THU TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT FOR NOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...
TAF PERIOD: WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
TAFS WILL ONLY BE A WIND FORECAST. THE WIND IS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS, AND AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING,
THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AT SOME LOCATIONS, WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHEN THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES AT INT/GSO. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/10
AVIATION...GREEN
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