765
FXUS62 KRAH 281007
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
607 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
1) DECAYING REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
2) MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
3) A COASTAL LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 236 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DECAYING REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY HAVE STARTED TO TRICKLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION LARGELY ERODING OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND DISSIPATING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE TRIAD DEPICT A RELATIVE DRY LAYER IN THE
800 TO 900 MB LEVELS, WITH SATURATION LARGELY FROM 700 MB UP. AS
SUCH, STILL EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT TO ONLY PRODUCE TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. A FEW
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATEST HREF SIMULATES MORNING CONVECTION MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM ~12Z TO 18Z. REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
FORM THIS EARLY CONVECTION MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, IF DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER JET MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT.
WHILE SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE KINEMATICS MAY
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH INTO VA,
THE LATEST HREF DOES PINPOINT THE HIGHEST UPDRAFT HELICITY
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OVER MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS. AGAIN, WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH EARLY MORNING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN LINGERS, BUT THERE IS SURELY A SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS ZONAL FLOW MOVES IN ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A COASTAL LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN MAKER SHOULD COME FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
REACH THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LOW
FORMING SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST, HOWEVER STRENGTH AND LOCATION IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD, MUCH
NEEDED RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS INCREASING SATURDAY. THE SPREAD IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS STILL LARGE, WITH THE MEAN OF THE GEFS SHOWING
THE REGION RECEIVING AROUND 1-1.2 INCH OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SHOWS AROUND
0.4-0.7 INCH IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE HOWEVER
TRENDED UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY'S RUNS. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...
10Z UPDATE: CONVECTION HAS REACHED THE TRIAD A BIT EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE MASSAGED TAFS AT KINT/KGSO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
EARLIER ARRIVAL. THE MORE ENERGETIC CONVECTION IS STILL LAGGED OUT
OVER EASTERN TN, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RAIN REACHING THE TRIAD THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO THE TEMPO
GROUP HERE FOR A POTENTIAL 20 KT GUST AND REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH, SUSPECT THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME HERE. CURRENTLY WATCHING A LINE OF DEEPER
CONVECTION OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THAT'S TRANSLATING PRETTY QUICKLY
EASTWARD. CURRENT TRACK HAS IT JUST MISSING SOUTH OF KINT/KGSO, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY UP GUSTS IF NEEDED.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE BULLISH HANGING ONTO MVFR
(WITH PERHAPS SOME IFR AT KINT AT TIMES) CEILINGS POSSIBLY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. AFTERWARDS, A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH ~08 TO 12Z WHEN SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL SPILL IN FROM
THE WEST ALONG WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
DECAY AS IT REACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT KINT/KGSO BETWEEN ~11
AND 15Z, AND MAYBE A ROUGE SHOWER AS FAR EAST AS KRDU. ASSOCIATED
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KINT/KGSO (PERHAPS SOME BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS WITH ANY SHOWERS) DURING THAT SAME TEMPORAL RANGE. A FEW
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS AT
KINT/KGSO AS WELL. BEYOND THIS MORNING, EXPECT MULTI-LAYER VFR
CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SWLY FLOW.
OUTLOOK: IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND ANOTHER AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CNTL NC WED MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/HELOCK
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/KREN
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