906
FXUS62 KRAH 300609
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
209 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LESSER SHOWER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TODAY, NOTHING EXPECTED NORTH.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 AM SATURDAY...
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE TO FAYETTEVILLE TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL BE PUNCHING
IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW NORTH.
2) A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SCATTERED AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE TO FAYETTEVILLE TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL BE PUNCHING
IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW NORTH.
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KY SE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NC AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER RIDGING
REMAINED IN PLACE FROM MN TO NC, WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST. CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE DRY
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGING WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING FROM
TN SE ACROSS SC INTO FAR SE NC. THE BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO MOVE A BIT
THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHERN NC, BUT A QUICK MOVING WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY CURRENTLY TO FAR SE NC BY LATE
MORNING. THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD TO THE NC/SC
BOARDER REGION AROUND 18Z, THEN ON TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SC THEREAFTER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FROM
CHARLOTTE TO FAYETTEVILLE THIS MORNING. THEN THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
SHIFT SOUTH AND AWAY FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.
THIS IS FAVORED BY MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELING. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE THAT NEED RAINFALL, THE QPF
APPEARS TO BE 0.25 OR LESS IN THE SOUTH WITH SOME LOCAL 0.50 TO
POSSIBLY 1 INCH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER REGION. TO
THE NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND FAYETTEVILLE, SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT QFP WILL BE 0.1 OR LOWER WITH NOTHING EXPECTED OVER
THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE NORTHWARD.
IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER TODAY AS THE DRIER AIR COMES IN THIS
AFTERNOON DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S/50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z/TONIGHT. HIGHS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 85 FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DEPENDING ON THE THICKNESS OF
THE HIGH CLOUDINESS.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE
HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S NE RANGING TO
NEAR 60 SE. SKIES WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF
LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ONCE
AGAIN ON MON, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR LIMITED WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
A HIGH-LATITUDE OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED
BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON THURS WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER-LVL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL CANADA WHICH
WILL BE BOOKENDED BY A PAIR OF MID/UPPER-LVL LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS STAGNANT PATTERN WILL FAVOR
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO LOCK-IN MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PUSH SEVERAL REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS INTO THE AREA POTENTIALLY THROUGH WED.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL ONCE AGAIN BUCKLE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ON MON. AN ADDED COMPLICATION HIGHLIGHTED IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH-
LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL AS
SOME VIRGA AND VERY LIGHT RAIN MON MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN IN WESTERN NC WITH
OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVERCOMING MEAGER INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS.
LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE APPEARS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TRACK OF ANY STORM-SCALE MCVS, BUT PREDICTABILITY ON THESE
MESO-GAMMA TO MESO-BETA FEATURES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. WITH THAT SAID, THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FORECAST RAIN TOTALS APPEAR FAIRLY LIMITED FOR THE PIEDMONT,
HOWEVER, THERE ARE 20 TO 45% PROBABILITIES FOR >= 0.5" FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS FROM THE 12Z LREF AS WELL AS THE 18Z
GEFS, GEPS, EPS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 124 AM SATURDAY...
A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY FROM KCLT TO KFAY SOUTHWARD TODAY.
OTHERWISE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND THROUGH CNTL NC SAT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WHEN
NE SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CNTL NC WITH A CHANCE
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ON MON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/AS
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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