024
FXUS62 KRAH 110540
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1241 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 123 PM SATURDAY...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYED A LINE OF CONVECTION
STEMMING FROM WESTERN NC SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
STATES. AS EXPECTED, CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST VIGOROUS ACROSS AL AND
GA WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND CAPE IS HIGHER. MLCAPE OF ~100-
250 J/KG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE 12Z HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH
OF THE VIGOROUS/CONCERNING CONVECTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER,
THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY JUST ABOVE THE SFC
BETWEEN ~18 AND 00Z (STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT). AS
SUCH, ANY SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED STORMS) THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TODAY COULD MIX SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC
CAUSING A LOW-END LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. AREAS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TO NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY DIABATICALLY ENHANCED GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD LARGELY MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT, BEHIND WHICH A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN THE TRIAD WHERE A FEW TENTHS TO A HALF
INCH IS EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
RALEIGH) MAY ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
WARM SSWLY SFC FLOW WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT
OVERNIGHT (ALTHOUGH SITES FURTHER EAST MAY MIX PERIODICALLY WITH
SOME STRONGER WNWLY GUSTS EVEN OVERNIGHT). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...
* DRY AND MUCH COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EXTEND EAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE PAIR OF WEEKEND COLD FRONTS, HIGHS WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL EVERYWHERE, WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF 50 DEGREES. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN
THE 20S OR LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...
* PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BECOMING BELOW NORMAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, AND AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
HIGHER THAN MONDAY, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. STILL NOT SEEING
MUCH PHASING BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE GREAT LAKES LOW'S
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES OVER VA/NC, BUT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WITH PRECIPITATION NOW
EXPECTED TO DEPART THE REGION MORE QUICKLY, THE CHANCE OF SNOW HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR
FUNNELS BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...
INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SSWLY SURFACE WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS, BOTH ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CNTL NC TONIGHT. VEERING/SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO WLY/NWLY WILL
ALSO RESULT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FULLY EAST OF CNTL NC BY 12Z SUN, AFTER
WHICH TIME VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WNWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE DAY SUN. A BAND OF 6-8
THOUSAND FT CEILINGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE PIEDMONT
OF NC SUN AFTERNOON. THE WEAK/SHALLOW CHARACTER OF THE SHOWERS, AND
THEIR HIGH BASES ATOP A VERY DEEP AND DRY BOUNDARY AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER, SUGGESTS MOST OR ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
SUBLIMATE/EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WHILE NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE LOCALIZED COOLING FROM
SUBLIMATION/EVAPORATION MAY LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY ENHANCE SURFACE WIND
GUSTS, UP TO 35-40 KTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR, AT LEAST UNTIL A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION CENTERED AROUND THE DAY THU.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
* SIGNIFICANT FIRE RISK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT FIRE RISK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A LEAD COLD FRONT
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY DISSIPATE AS THE MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA WILL
NEGLIGIBLE RAINFALL AND FAIL TO RECOVER DEAD FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD FRONT AND IN CONCERT WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT
VERTICAL MIXING. DEWPOINTS WILL CRASH INTO THE TEENS AND 20S,
CAUSING RH VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 20 TO 25 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH FREQUENT NWLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND
DIFFICULT CONTAINMENT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...CBL
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