925  
FXUS62 KRAH 020039  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
839 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...  
 
* CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-NUMEROUS, AND SLOW-  
MOVING/BACKBUILDING WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING,  
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING  
 
A POSITIVE TILT MID/UPR-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING THIS AFTERNOON FROM  
ON TO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIGRATE EWD AND REACH THE VICINITY OF  
THE CNTL AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WED. IT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY  
PRECEDED BY A PLUME PWS AROUND 2.25" AND ALSO A CONVECTIVELY-  
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT INCLUDES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW MCVS  
AND AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER CNTL PA, THE SRN OH/WV  
BORDER, AND ERN TN/KY, RESPECTIVELY. THE LATTER AND SRN-MOST  
FEATURE, AND ANOTHER THAT MAY DEVELOP FROM GROWING CONVECTION OVER  
THE WRN CAROLINAS, WILL FOCUS MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS  
IT/THEY PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT TONIGHT.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CNTL NC,  
DOWNSTREAM OF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED AND MODULATED FRONT THAT WILL  
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXTEND FROM THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC  
COAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WED.  
 
DIURNAL CONVECTION, MINIMAL IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE  
PIEDMONT TROUGH, WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-NUMEROUS OVER THE PIEDMONT  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM  
CONVECTION/AGGREGATE OUTFLOW AND MCVS FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS TO ERN  
TN/KY, EDGE EWD. SWLY, 15-25 KTS OF LWR TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND  
MEAN WIND EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MHX AND RNK RAOBS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-  
CELL DEVELOPMENT AND INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT  
SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A NOCTURNAL ACCELERATION OF  
A MODEST, ~25 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ANTI-PARALLEL TO THE MEAN  
WIND AND CAUSE UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS TO DECREASE AND SUPPORT  
SLOW-MOVING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION TONIGHT. WHILE A THREAT OF A FEW  
STRONG TO TREE-DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE WITH THE  
INCREASE IN NUMBER OF CELLS OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH  
EARLY EVENING, FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS, WILL POSE  
A GREATER CONCERN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION  
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MAINE DOWN  
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SLOWLY  
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING OUR  
REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WILL BE SCATTERED BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD BY THE  
MID/LATE MORNING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST, INCREASED CHANCE OF  
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE US1 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR WEST TO  
EAST LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE THE EASTWARD DRYING TREND INTO THE  
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
WHILE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS, THE MAIN THREAT  
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN FLASH  
FLOODING. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2  
OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NE, NEAR  
THE VA BORDER AND COAST. WHILE IT ONLY EXTENDS A FEW COUNTIES INTO  
RAH’S REGION, THIS COULD LATER BE EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND. GENERALLY  
EVERYWHERE ELSE IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING (LEVEL 1 OF  
4). THUS, EVERYONE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE AWARE OF STRONGER  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH QUICK HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING  
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL VARY FROM 0.50” TO AN INCH IN THE  
SOUTH 0.75” TO 1.50” ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING  
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1.50” TO 2.50” INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT  
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...  
 
FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, A WEAK RIDGE WILL  
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS, MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE  
CAROLINAS WILL BE WEAKENED AND REDUCE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT  
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THUS, OVERALL REDUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE ONLY AREA OF INTEREST FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE  
IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. RECENT GFS AND ECWMF  
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF FLORIDA.  
CURRENT ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED AS IT CROSSES  
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE  
LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK, POPS REMAIN LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE DAY  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY...  
 
A SLOW-MOVING, BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER  
TROUGH OVER EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST INTO  
THE NW PIEDMONT, INCLUDING AROUND INT AND GSO. ANY STORMS EMBEDDED  
WITHIN THE BAND COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG  
WITH GUSTY WINDS, SUCH AS THE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH GSO. THE  
BAND LIKELY WON'T REACH RDU UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SOME  
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NC OUT AHEAD  
OF IT. FURTHERMORE, THE BAND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR  
TO IFR CEILINGS FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER  
THE PIEDMONT. EVEN SOME LIFR CEILINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY  
AROUND THE TRIAD. THE BAND WILL THEN PUSH FARTHER EAST INTO FAY AND  
RWI ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT BY THIS POINT, IT WILL BE IN A  
WEAKENED STATE, AND CEILINGS MAY LARGELY BE MVFR THERE INSTEAD OF  
IFR. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ONCE AGAIN, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.  
 
OUTLOOK: MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AMID A LINGERING,  
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS THU MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT ERN SITES,  
AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY, BEFORE DRY  
WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MWS  
NEAR TERM...MWS  
SHORT TERM...CA  
LONG TERM...CA/SKARI  
AVIATION...DANCO/MWS  
 
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