102  
FXUS62 KRAH 250150  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
949 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH  
MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST (THE REMNANTS OF BETA) WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION  
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...  
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF TC BETA, LOCATED OVER  
NORTHERN MS, WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT,  
ALONG WILL SEVERAL ASSOCIATED ROUNDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN. PRECIP  
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. OVERCAST SKIES/INCREASING  
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT, DESPITE THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF A CAD AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE  
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST, NOT MUCH  
MOVEMENT FROM CURRENT VALUES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...  
 
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE SE CENTRAL NC, MAINLY FROM  
WADESBORO TO GOLDSBORO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SE CENTRAL NC, MAINLY FROM  
FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG DOWN FROM THE  
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING,  
AND WILL ABSORB THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA.  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK AND MOVE FROM  
THE WSW TO THE ENE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD  
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGHOUT DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY  
LIFT ACROSS THE SC/NC BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH EXTENSIVE  
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN PLACE, THE WARM FRONT  
MAY HAVE SOME ISSUES PUSHING FARTHER NORTH AND DESTABILIZING CENTRAL  
NC. THIS WILL CONFINE THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS  
AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, HIGHS WILL  
PUSH INTO THE MID 70S AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE CLOUD COVER BREAKS.  
SOME LEVEL OF STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG  
OF MLCAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6KM WIND SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE  
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, BUT AN ISOLATED  
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN  
TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS LEADING TO A VERY STABLE  
ENVIRONMENT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE NW PIEDMONT.  
 
AS FOR RAINFALL, TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE MORE IN SOUTHEASTERN  
NC COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES AN HOUR UNDER THE  
DEEPEST CONVECTION. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS TO  
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN FOR FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
OVERNIGHT, THE LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AND WILL BE ABOUT AVERAGE  
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOW 60S TO HIGH 60S FROM THE NW TO SE  
RESPECTIVELY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...  
 
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY,  
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN. BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND ANY RAIN WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER,  
GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH ON AVERAGE. ADDED A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW  
STORMS, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING AWAY, SHEAR WILL BE  
MUCH LIGHTER, AND SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING  
WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,  
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS, BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE A  
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. AGAIN ANY  
RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS  
CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY  
(30-40% CHANCE POPS) AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL  
BEGIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL (UPPER-70S TO LOWER-  
80S), WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 
AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH THE  
REGION, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION  
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. AFTER THAT, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY  
GREATLY INCREASES. THE GFS AND ECMWF VARY WIDELY ON TIMING, WITH THE  
12Z GFS MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING  
IN DRY COOL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF, ON  
THE OTHER HAND, HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN,  
HOLDING BACK A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY AND NOT  
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS  
WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM  
THREAT. FOR NOW JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE  
ECMWF WAS MUCH FASTER IN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THIS MAY JUST BE AN  
OUTLIER. REGARDLESS, THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE CLEARED THE AREA BY  
THURSDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING, BUT REGARDLESS,  
BEHIND THE FRONT A COOL FALL-LIKE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE  
REGION AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BRINGS CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE  
EASTERN US. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WELL-BELOW-NORMAL (UPPER-  
60S TO LOWER-70S), WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOWER-50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 840 PM THURSDAY...  
 
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE REMNANTS OF TC BETA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, SPREADING LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS INTO  
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT GENERALLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT  
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY AND KRWI FROM  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY, WITH  
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT KFAY AND KRWI. COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY OF PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE  
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS  
(IFR/LIFR) AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND  
FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS  
WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.  
 

 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT  
NEAR TERM...BSD  
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT/JJT  
LONG TERM...DANCO  
AVIATION...BSD/JJT  
 
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