565
FXUS62 KRAH 110546
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
146 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ALTHOUGH A BRIEF, SHORT-TRACK TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ANYWHERE
IN CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 10 AM AND 7 PM SUNDAY, THE LOCALLY GREATER
RISK WILL LIKELY BE FROM THE TRIAD, TO THE TRIANGLE, INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (ROCKY MOUNT) AND NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA.
* A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK RESULTS IN UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS TUES CONTINUING INTO WED WHEN UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 229 PM SATURDAY...
1) ISAIAS REMNANTS AND RESULTING RAINS UNDERWAY, CONTINUING TONIGHT.
2) SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUN MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF, SHORT-TRACKED
TORNADOES AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
3) UNSEASONABLY WARM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MID-OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 229 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ISAIAS REMNANTS AND RESULTING RAINS UNDERWAY,
CONTINUING TONIGHT.
THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION AND PATTERN ASSOC WITH ISAIAS REMNANTS
IS RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC ATTM. MEANWHILE,
CENTRAL NC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS,
THUS THE REASON FOR THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR. NWP THERMODYNAMIC
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF
TONIGHT, WHILE THE H8 FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH VIGOROUS AND WARMING H8 FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS
OVERRUNNING SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THE PATCHY RAIN WE'RE SEEING NOW MAY
BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL TONIGHT, WITH PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION AT TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND HEAVIER RAIN RATES. BUT IN TERMS OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION... THAT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SO IN
SUMMARY, LOOK FOR ONGOING LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN TONIGHT, WITH SOME
SCATTERED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT NE TO E SFC WIND GUSTS OF 20-
25 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE RELAXING A
BIT OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
SUN MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF,
SHORT-TRACKED TORNADOES AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
A STAKED LOW, CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ISAIAS, WILL BE POSITIONED OVER KY/TN BY 12Z SUN MORNING. CAD
EROSION SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY SUN MORNING WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST
POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW RELATIVE TO CENTRAL NC AND RETREATING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD
SUPPORT A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH NC SUN MORNING AND
INTO VA BY SUN AFTERNOON; ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CAD WEDGE HOLD
OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS AS
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM MT. AIRY
INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA.
WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION A
BIT, BUT THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THIS LIMITATION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S AND SUPPORTS 500-1500 SBCAPE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE SUN MORNING
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUN EVENING (10 AM UNTIL 8 PM). A BELT
OF 40-60 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LVL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CAROLINAS INTO VA THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SUPPORT A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION GIVEN
ADEQUATE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ROUGHLY 45
DEGREES TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY, TRAILING COLD FRONT, WOULD
SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE GIVEN LIMITED STORM
COLLISIONS/INTERACTIONS.
A STOUT 25-35 KT LOW-LVL JET AT 925MB OVERTOP OF THE WARM SECTOR
WILL PROVIDE ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPH AND SUPPORT 100-150
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WHICH IS A BIT ON THE LOW-
END BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO ANYWHERE WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR. THE GREATER LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WHERE SURFACE WINDS BACK FROM THE SOUTH TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION AND RESULTS IN +200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH. THIS IS MOST LIKELY
TO MATERIALIZE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND NEAREST
THE TRIPLE POINT WITH THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW (AS FAR WEST AS THE
TRIAD, ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE TRIANGLE AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND MORE LIKELY NORTHWARD INTO VA).
THE BIG CAVEAT WILL BE THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER
LVLS OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WOULD BE
FURTHER TRUNCATED BY DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO UPDRAFTS AND GREATLY
LIMITING THEIR UPDRAFT STRENGTH, WHICH MAY NOT SURVIVE THE STRONG
SHEAR IN PLACE. DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, UP INTO THE
TRIANGLE AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHICH MAY MORE LIKELY OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR ALOFT, BUT IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
LOW-LVL KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A QUICK SPINUP AND
SHORT-TRACK TORNADO THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3... UNSEASONABLY WARM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR MID-OCTOBER.
IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC,
WHICH ABSORBED TC ISAIAS, AND CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUBBLE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TUES INTO THURS. A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE, AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RACING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CANADA TUES THROUGH WED WILL ALSO SPREAD
ANOMALOUSLY WARM H850 TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER THE MS AND WESTERN
OH VALLEY'S ON MON OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUES BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURS.
A SLOWER TRANSLATION EASTWARD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TO
OUR NORTH IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE WILL KEEP A BAND OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS, AS WELL AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, CONFINED TO VIRGINIAS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS 45-60M ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER WILL SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMEST ON WED. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON HOW/IF THE PATTERN WILL REBOUND FRI/FRI-NIGHT WITH
THE GFS AND CMC SUITE OF GUIDANCE RETURNING A STOUT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND
NORTHERN OH VALLEY ON FRI, WHILE THE ECMWF SUITE AND ITS AI
COUNTERPART REMAIN VOID OF SUCH A SOLUTION DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 146 AM SUNDAY...
A MIXTURE OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE NEAR-
TERM OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL 15-18Z, SLOWEST TO RISE TO MVFR IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS
(GSO/INT) AND EARLIEST AT FAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
AROUND THE REGION, MOST FOCUSED OVER THE TRIAD TERMINALS. THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL MID-MORNING, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ANY ONE TERMINAL PRIOR TO
THAT. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, A MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT GSO/INT EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY LIFR/IFR VISBYS ANYWHERE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT. MOST HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SOMEWHAT BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRACKING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ROUGHLY BETWEEN 15-21Z.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS,
THOUGH THE MOST COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING NEAR RDU/FAY/RWI. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES, MVFR WILL LIFT TO VFR AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST TIMES, STARTING OUT EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND SWITCHING AROUND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING,
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/AS
AVIATION...KREN
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