534
FXUS62 KRAH 130554
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW RADIATION FOG/MIST
THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE RWI TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NC
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY APPROACH CENTRAL
NC FROM THE NORTHEAST WED NIGHT/THU AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TRAILS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT STILL APPEARS WILL STAY GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
AREA AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST THU NIGHT/FRI. 12Z LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 1390-1400 DAM RANGE, INCREASING INTO THE 1400-1410
DAM RANGE ON WED AND THU AND POSSIBLY FRI. THESE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TODAY, INCREASING TO MID 80S TO
LOW 90S ON WED (ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), WHICH WOULD
THREATEN/BREAK RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.
A POTENT NRN STREAM S/W ALOFT TRACKING EWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTL
CANADA WED/WED NIGHT WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT
LAKES THU AND FRI, DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN US AS IT
INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER S/W EJECTING ENEWD FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFFSHORE FRI/FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT/FRI, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WRT PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FROPA, THE EC BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION BUT
TRENDING DRIER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE STOUT FRI/SAT AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG ~1035 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA FRI EVE. EXPECT STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH MAY WEAKEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS IT BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEY
REGIONS, BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT/SUN AND
OFFSHORE BY MON.
BY SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LOWS FROM THU NIGHT
(GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S), WHILE LOWS MAY DROP SOME 10-15 DEGREES
FROM FRI MORN TO SAT MORN. HOWEVER, THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPS WILL COME SAT NIGHT, AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC, WHEN LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE MID/UPR 30S ACROSS THE NRN
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS CNTL NC. SOME
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE MID 30S LOWS BE REALIZED.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
AREAS OF SHALLOW RADIATION FOG/MIST ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/TIDEWATER OF VA AND
ADJACENT NC COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING, INCLUDING AT RWI WHERE A
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE OF 60 F WILL LIKELY BE MET WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE BUILD ACROSS CNTL NC
AND FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SWLY WINDS TODAY, AFTER CALM THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN MIST/FOG
AT RWI AND FAY WED AND PERHAPS AGAIN THU MORNING, INFLUENCE FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL FAVOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER CNTL NC FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN AREA OF IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ACROSS VA AND
NRN NC THU-THU NIGHT, THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND
POST-FRONTAL CEILINGS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT AND SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD CNTL NC LATE FRI AND
FRI NIGHT, DURING WHICH TIME A PERIOD OF STRONG NWLY SURFACE WINDS
MAY GUST BETWEEN 30-40 KTS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 14: KGSO: 85/1975 KRDU: 86/1985 KFAY: 90/1954
OCTOBER 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985
OCTOBER 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page