126
FXUS62 KRAH 221012
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
612 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...
1) A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN INITIALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
TO THE EAST OF THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE AND DAMPENING RIDGE, A COUPLE
OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND INTO A MEAN TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST, WITH PASSAGES
ACROSS CNTL NC EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUN.
AT THE SURFACE, SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SERIES OF REINFORCING, CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGHS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND EXTEND ACROSS CNTL NC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A ~1025 MB ONE NOW CENTERED OVER SRN ON WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 1035 MB WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND NRN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ITS LEADING
EDGE WILL BE MARKED BY A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN
QC TO THE CNTL PLAINS AND WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWD AND ACROSS THE SRN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRI. FOLLOWING, MARITIME-INFLUENCED NELY FLOW
WILL BOTH INCREASE THE RISK FOR MOSTLY A SCATTERING OF STRATOCUMULUS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITHIN OTHERWISE DEEPLY DRY AND CLEAR
SKIES, AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 610 AM THURSDAY...
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATED DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS IN CNTL NC THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KTS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT FAY AND RWI, IN A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CANADIAN HIGH AND
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE OFF THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK: WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LOW VFR TO MVFR-BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
NELY FLOW, BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, THIS WEEKEND. THE RELATIVE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL BE OVER THE
VA AND NC TIDEWATER SAT MORNING AND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
SUN AND MON MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...MWS
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