678
FXUS62 KRAH 060000
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER HAS EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2) A SECOND COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO EXTEND INTO THE TRIAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER RUNNING INTO SOME DRIER AIR, WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY BEFORE A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND GREATEST CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH
COVERAGE SUBSIDING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY, AND ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM AS LOW AS HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE TRIAD
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION SOMEWHERE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LAYER IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE
PARTICULAR MODEL. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, EFFECTIVE
WIND SHEAR COULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 30-50 KNOTS, SO THE ENVIRONMENT
IS CERTAINLY LEANING TOWARDS A HIGH-SHEAR, LOW CAPE (HSLC) SCENARIO.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED.
INSTABILITY VALUES APPEAR TO BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A SECOND COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY, BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
EXACTLY WHEN THE GREATEST RAIN WILL ARRIVE, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MONDAY
AFTERNOON HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES, AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED, THOUGH WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT, PROBABLY VFR RAIN/SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT WED MORNING. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD CAUSE SLY TO SSWLY
SURFACE WINDS TO LESSEN AND ONLY INFREQUENTLY GUST OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
THEY STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME/DIURNAL
HEATING ON WED. IN THE INTERIM, A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FROM
SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL MIDDLE ATLANTIC SSWWD AND ACROSS
CNTL AND WRN VA AND NC TONIGHT, WITH AN ASSOCIATED GOOD CHANCE OF
LLWS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AROUND AND ESPECIALLY JUST
AFTER 00Z THU, THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT CNTL NC, AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SURROUNDING BAND OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS
THAT WILL SAG SWD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THU. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN-MON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/GREEN
AVIATION...MWS
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