677
FXUS62 KRAH 041200
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...
* DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED
* AREAS OF DENSE FOG PROBABLE AGAIN THU MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN, SANDHILLS, AND SRN PIEDMONT
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) AREAS OF DENSE FOG PROBABLE AGAIN THU MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN, SANDHILLS, AND SRN PIEDMONT
2) STILL EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING POTENTIAL NEAR-RECORD WARMTH, STARTING THU
AND STRETCHING THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST
SUN/MON
DISCUSSION
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AREAS OF DENSE FOG PROBABLE AGAIN THU MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, SANDHILLS, AND SRN PIEDMONT
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS HAVE CAUSED THE EARLIER DENSE FOG IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. AN INFLUX OF RICHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE, AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUB-TROPICAL N.
ATLANTIC AND CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F,
WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF FOG AND VERY
LOW OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT-THU MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN, SANDHILLS, AND SRN PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... STILL EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING POTENTIAL NEAR-RECORD WARMTH,
STARTING THU AND STRETCHING THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE HIGHEST SUN/MON
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S COAST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, TOPPING A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WILL
ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS, AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO FAVOR ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH DAILY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES, AROUND 50 M ABOVE NORMAL THU AND
AT LEAST 55-60 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI THROUGH TUE (AND LIKELY BEYOND).
THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 20 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL, GIVEN DECENT
INSOLATION, WHILE DAILY LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL, IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S, WHICH ARE ACTUALLY CLOSE TO THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRI, SAT, AND TUE APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS, AND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THIS STRETCH WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO RECORDS AT GSO, RDU, AND FAY.
THIS MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE COUNTERED BY A DEEP PHASED MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM, FROM ALBERTA AND MANITOBA SOUTHWARD TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE OUR PEAK RAIN CHANCES STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND. INITIALLY, THE WARM AND SUBSIDING MID LEVELS OVER NC, ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE INITIALLY HELPING TO LIMIT GULF- AND ATLANTIC-
SOURCE MOISTURE FLUX INTO OUR AREA, WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY INTO
SAT, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WHILE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW AND RETROGRADE
BACK OVER AND JUST W OF NW MEXICO, ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE TROUGH
FRI, FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NNE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, WILL GET
ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS FEATURE BECOMES PRETTY LARGE BY SUN.
THIS BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC, ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL FAVOR KEEPING THIS FRONT JUST TO
OUR N. NEVERTHELESS, A PREFRONTAL INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUDS AND PW
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES, HIGHEST SUN THROUGH MON,
WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO AS WELL. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
POTENTIAL, THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SUN/MON, KEEP
TEMPS (ESPECIALLY LOWS) WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO STAY UNPHASED INTO MID
WEEK, AND AS THE NW MEXICO LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD, IT WILL BUILD
RENEWED RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST, THUS KEEPING OUR
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD DROP
BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR TUE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
SCATTER/CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ~14Z, AS THE FLOW IN THE
CLOUD LAYER VEERS FROM SWLY TO A DRIER WSWLY ONE. THAT CLEARING HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED AT INT AND GSO; AND AS SUCH, A SHORT PERIOD OF
RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THROUGH ~13Z. A SWLY SURFACE
WIND WILL OTHERWISE STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 6-12 KTS AND MAY GUST
BRIEFLY AND OCCASIONALLY INTO THE MID TEENS KTS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LIFR FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING, MOST
LIKELY IN CNTL NC AT FAY, RWI, AND PERHAPS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AS
FAR NORTHWEST AS RDU.
OUTLOOK: WHILE AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE WILL
BE HIGHEST AT ERN SITES (IE. FAY AND RWI), WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE RICHEST AND DEEPEST.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 5:
KGSO: 81/1967
KRDU: 83/1967
MARCH 6:
KGSO: 78/2022
KRDU: 82/1967
KFAY: 86/1918
MARCH 7:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 85/1974
KFAY: 84/1961
MARCH 8:
KGSO: 83/2000
KFAY: 87/1974
MARCH 9:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 84/2009
MARCH 10:
KGSO: 78/2016
KRDU: 81/1974
KFAY: 84/1974
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 5:
KFAY: 63/1976
MARCH 6:
KRDU: 64/1967
KFAY: 65/1961
MARCH 7:
KGSO: 63/1956
KRDU: 64/1956
KFAY: 65/1961
MARCH 8:
KGSO: 57/1946
KRDU: 60/1946
KFAY: 63/1961
MARCH 9:
KGSO: 61/1921
KRDU: 61/1921
KFAY: 62/1980
MARCH 10:
KGSO: 58/2016
KRDU: 57/2020
KFAY: 65/1964
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS/GIH
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page