411
FXUS62 KRAH 110720
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
3) HOT AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
ALOFT, A S/W, WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SWD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT PROGRESSION MAY
SLOW/STALL BRIEFLY THIS AFT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG IT INVOF THE SC/NC BORDER, WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SWD OUT
OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVE AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON TUE.
PRECIPITATION: HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATE MORN THROUGH THE AFT. CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER SHIFTS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS AFT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN PROXIMITY
TO THIS LOW (WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED), WHICH
IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC, BUT COULD CLIP FAR
SRN SAMPSON COUNTY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS TODAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION, WITH A GRADIENT OF 10-15 DEGREES FROM N-S ACROSS THE
AREA. FOR NOW, HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPR
70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
DEGREES SOUTH EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THE FROPA, THE DRIER AIR MAY STAY
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING TO/NEAR THE
DEWPOINT TEMP OVERNIGHT. WHERE THE ANAFRONTAL RAIN DOES OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS AFT, SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORN.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO BE
LACKING. THUS, THERE IS LITTLE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. QPF OF LESS THAN 0.25 IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3... HOT AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
MUCH WARMER OR EVEN HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE SANDHILLS
AND COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HEAT IS DUE TO AN
EXPANDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
AND THE HEAT MAY VERY WELL LAST WELL INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING KFAY AND KRWI THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SWD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
15-25KTS IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WRT THE PRECIPITATION, LIGHT RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED SHOWER OR
TWO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER, MOST LIKELY
IMPACTING KINT, KGSO, POSSIBLY STRETCHING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
KRDU AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS WITH THE
RAIN, BUT FOR NOW GENERALLY EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS TO CREEP SWD TOWARD/INTO THE NRN TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF THE
RAIN OR AS IT MOVES OUT THIS AFT. FARTHER SOUTH AND DEPENDENT UPON
THE FROPA TIMING, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD IMPACT KFAY,
PERHAPS KRWI, WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFT/EVE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING, WITH CLOUD COVER AND WINDS ALSO DECREASING LATER THIS
EVE/TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MINIMAL DRYING IN THE LOW-LVLS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG TUES MORNING WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS CAN OCCUR; GREATEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT (INT/GSO/RDU). ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WED
INTO THU. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/BADGETT
AVIATION...10/AS
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