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FXUS62 KRAH 081926
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
1) A DISJOINTED DISTURBANCE BRINGS SOME ISOLATED RAIN SATURDAY AND A
FEW LATE-DAY SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
2) A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, THE FIRST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SECOND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A DISJOINTED DISTURBANCE BRINGS SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SATURDAY AND A FEW LATE-DAY SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW AND WARMER WEATHER
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER
70S, WITH EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.
ALOFT, A FEW DISJOINTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. A NORTHERN DISTURBANCE WILL SKIRT MAINLY NORTH OF NC ACROSS
THE LOWER OH AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKS ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF GA/SC. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL TRACK THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THIS ENERGY WILL BYPASS CENTRAL NC, LEAVING MOST AREAS STAYING DRY.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
SANDHILLS, COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES DURING THE MORNING AND
SOME EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDER. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, THOUGH THE 12Z HRRR SUGGESTS A HIGH-
END POTENTIAL UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVER THE SANDHILLS.
LATER IN THE DAY, A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SURFACE INSTABILITY UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
40+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME LATE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME, DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM-NEST SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO, THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY NARROW AS IT TRACKS
EAST.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUN,
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW WAA STRATIFORM RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SECOND ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW.
MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW THAT TRACKS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHER THAN A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FAR SE, MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-80S. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW, SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. BUT EVEN THERE, QPF IS ONLY IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY ELEVATED
AND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY ONWARD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID-40S TO
MID-50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, BUT AMOUNTS LOOK EVEN LIGHTER AND IMPACTS SHOULD
AGAIN BE MINIMAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 239 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SLY SFC FLOW.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFAY/KRWI LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR A BIT DURING THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
RISK OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH A RISK OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND ON SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/DANCO
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/BLAES
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