919
FXUS62 KRAH 241815
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THURSDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY TRENDING DRIER
* SATURDAY TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
1) SOME CAD EROSION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
2) MOIST AND MUGGY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION
3) THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM MUGGY CONDITIONS TO COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SOME CAD EROSION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
STARTING TO SEE THINNING OF THE WEDGE CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-1 REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
70S. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, SEA-BREEZE INDUCED FORCING ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAD BOUNDARY HAS TRIGGERED
CONVECTION IN THE MHX AND ILM CWAS. THE CU FIELD IS DEEPENING IN
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INITIATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE
ANY CONCERNING STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD PETER OUT WITH SUNSET. AN
ADDITIONAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV TREKKING THROUGH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THIS WAVE OF SHOWERS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE.
STRATUS WILL SOCK BACK IN TONIGHT, AND SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUD
BASE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG SIMILAR TO RECENT MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WARM AND UNSEASONABLY HUMID/MUGGY THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF RAIN/CONVECTION
WHILE THE WEDGE THAT PLAGUED CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY, A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION, THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY. THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY AS TO WHEN PARTICULAR IMPULSES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOCALLY. UNLIKE THIS WEEKEND,
WHERE THE WEDGE KEPT STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE WAS
MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, THERE SHOULD BE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH A LACK OF SHEAR THIS FAR AWAY
FROM THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOMING
SEVERE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3... TRENDING MILDER AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH
RESPECT TO BOTH HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
THURSDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN,
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER THAT DAY WITH THE
PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FINALLY
BEGINNING TO DROP TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE DRIEST 24 HOUR PERIOD IN THE NEXT WEEK, BUT AFTER THAT, THE
FRONT WILL THEN BECOME HUNG UP OVER SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE
WEEKEND. BEING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT, HIGHS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 70S. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 134 PM SUNDAY...
STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING OF THE CAD CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SITES LIFTING TO MVFR (AND VFR AT KRWI). STILL THINK MVFR
CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH MUCH OF, IF NOT THE
REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD LIFT
TO, OR MAINTAIN, VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KRDU MAY REMAIN MVFR,
NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT THE WEDGE WILL NORTH OF THERE QUICK
ENOUGH BEFORE EVERYTHING SOCKS BACK IN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOME SEA-
BREEZE/CAD EDGE CONVECTION HAS BUBBLED UP JUST SOUTH OF KFAY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED BUT LIKELY TRICKLE NORTH
AND REACH KFAY (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND PERHAPS KRDU/KRWI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS (LIKELY
NO THUNDER) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AT KINT/KGSO WITH THIS WAVE.
CEILINGS WILL SOCK BACK DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EVERYWHERE TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH MORNING FOG OR STRATUS. WHILE STILL
UNCERTAIN, THERE IS PERHAPS A SIGNAL FOR DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019
MAY 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004
MAY 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/GREEN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page