025
FXUS62 KRAH 031802
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 202 PM MONDAY...
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY,
AND COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT.
2) DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 202 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF TODAY
AND TUESDAY, AND COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEEP, MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS AN OPEN TROUGH CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS BOUNDARY, COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
ATLANTIC RIDGE, WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS GA AND INDUCES A SURFACE
WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE, ALLOWING STORMS TO
PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, RESULTING IN
AN INCREASED RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST SOUTHERLY AIR INTO THE REGION, AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO VARYING DEGREES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR THE WEEKEND, THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 80S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 202 PM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP, ALTHOUGH
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER AT A FEW LOCATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z BEFORE
LOWERING CEILINGS BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 14Z TUESDAY, CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, ONE OR
MORE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY, PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
OUTLOOK: PRE-DAWN IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
LIKELY EACH NIGHT, PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TAPERS BACK
TOWARD TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/GREEN
BLS AVIATION...NP
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