350
FXUS62 KRAH 042343
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NEGLIGIBLE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 258 PM THURSDAY...
1) INCREASINGLY HOT, BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND NO RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 257 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASINGLY HOT, BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND NO RAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NC COAST DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY REACHED THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER 40S.
QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
THE CENTER OF THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN US FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. INCREASING SLY FLOW ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT RESIDUAL
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW PWAT SHOULD ALLOW DECENT MIXING OUT OF DEW
POINTS EACH AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING TEMPS
COULD PEAK NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS WELL, AND AS SUCH HEAT
CONCERNS WILL RETURN (THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK SHOWS AREAS OF
MODERATE TO MAJOR LEVELS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC). ALL GROUPS SHOULD
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIFFERS. THE GFS/GEFS BUILDS A STRONGER HIGH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAINTAINS DRIER/COOLER TEMPS THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. CONVERSELY, THE EURO TURNS FLOW SLY QUICKER AND
ALLOWS SOME WARMER TEMPS TO DEVELOP DURING THE SAME PERIOD.
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND, THE EURO/ENS PROMOTES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS/GFS
SUPPORT DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH GLOBAL MODEL SETS
HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT QPF IS QUITE LOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...
FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR HOLDS OVER
THE REGION, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
THROUGH SUNRISE FRI, THEN FROM THE SW AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH AT
LEAST SUN, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION SHIFTS
SLOWLY E AND OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 6:
KGSO: 96/2008
KRDU: 99/2008
KFAY: 99/1943
JUNE 7:
KGSO: 98/1925
KRDU: 100/2008
KFAY: 99/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 7:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 74/2008
KFAY: 75/2008
JUNE 8:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 75/1899
KFAY: 74/2008
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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