863
FXUS62 KRAH 251004
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
604 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI ONWARD HAVE BEEN LOWERED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...
1) BECOMING HOT FRI-SUN, TRENDING LESS SO NEXT MON-TUE, THEN
POSSIBLY DANGEROUSLY SO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
2) DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... BECOMING HOT FRI-SUN, TRENDING LESS SO NEXT MON-
TUE, THEN POSSIBLY DANGEROUSLY SO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AN MCV AND RELATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER SERN AL WILL WEAKEN/
DEAMPLIFY WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS GA AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRI. THEREAFTER, A
COUPLE OF SUB-TROPICAL, MID-LEVEL HIGHS INITIALLY OVER NRN MX AND
THE SWRN N. ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND AMPLIFY A RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH AND MS VALLEY SUN-MON, DURING WHICH TIME A CONVECTIVELY-
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY WELL-DEVELOPED MCV WILL
TRACK IN NWLY FLOW FROM THE LWR OH VALLEY TO OFFSHORE THE SRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST. AS THAT TROUGH MOVES EAST, A STRONG MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE RELATED TO THE UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL DRIFT EWD AND PARK
OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL AIR
NOW STRETCHING FROM JUST OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SWWD AND
INTO NC WILL BECOME ABSORBED/OVERWHELMED BY A STRONGER HIGH SPANNING
THE ENTIRETY OF THE LOWER MID-LATITUDE AND SUB-TROPICAL CNTL N.
ATLANTIC. INCREASINGLY-HOT, SWLY FLOW WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND INTO BOTH AN APPALACHIAN-LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH AND A
WAVY FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. CNTL NC WILL BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
FRONTAL ZONE UNTIL SUN, WHEN IT WILL LIKELY SETTLE SWD AND ACROSS
NC. FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED ELY/ONSHORE FLOW
DIRECTED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST, AND WHICH SHOULD
REGULATE TEMPERATURES AND CURB THE HEAT OVER CNTL NC MON-TUE. THE
INTENSIFYING HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR ATLANTIC STATES, AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THAT TIME, WILL THEN
PROBABLY EXPAND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO CNTL NC MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK, WHEN DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
A SHIELD OF 700 MB-CENTERED MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS NC ON FRI.
WHILE MIXED DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO 500 J/KG OR LESS, FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING THE PASSING MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW STORMS.
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL FURTHER INCREASE ESPECIALLY BY SUN,
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLE MCV/MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS SUN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN
WHAT WILL BE A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BL WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30C. RIDGING, AT THE
SURFACE MON-TUE AND ALOFT FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WILL THEN LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 604 AM THURSDAY...
THROUGH 12Z FRI: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION. ANY CIGS WILL BE HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING THEN FROM THE SW AT 10 KT
LATER THIS MORNING AND FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z FRI, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS,
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, WILL INCREASE LATE FRI AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE N.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...NP/BADGETT
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