711
FXUS62 KRAH 140718
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8
PM. PLEASE READ DISCUSSIONS BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING DOWN FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
1) A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL
8 PM FOR THE EASTERN & SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND A
MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT HAZARDOUS HEAT LIKELY RETURNS LATE THIS
WEEK.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE WAVES
TODAY. LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS AND WATER LOADED DOWNBURSTS WILL
BRING A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
3) SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY DRY. A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM
FOR THE EASTERN & SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND A MAJORITY
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT HAZARDOUS HEAT LIKELY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.
A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED DISTURBANCE SHIFTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WILL RETURN
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND +20C 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL BUBBLE BACK NORTHWARD THE
WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND RESULT IN 100 TO 107 DEGREE HEAT INDICES.
CONSEQUENTLY, HEATRISK IS HIGHLIGHTING MAJOR TO EXTREME IN THESE
AREAS, INDICATING THAT NOT ONLY IS THIS HEAT PARTICULARLY
UNUSUAL, IT IS CORRELATED WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT ILLNESSES AS
NOTED BY HISTORICAL CDC HEAT-HEALTH DATA, AND THIS HEAT COULD
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH IMPACTS ON ALL POPULATIONS,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND COOLING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE FAILURE MODES TODAY THAT MAY PUT AN END
TO DANGEROUS HEAT EARLY FOR MANY COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORY.
FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CONVECTION AS A RAPIDLY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS AS EARLY AS 16Z. RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW
WOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR ENVIRONMENTAL
POTENTIAL WHEREVER THEY DEVELOP. SECOND, LOW OVERCAST MAY
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS AND SLOW THE RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES EXPRESSED
EARLIER. NEVERTHELESS, A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUED
PROLONGED ANOMALOUS HEAT (AT TIMES RECORD BREAKING HEAT) WITH
MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL MAKE ANYONE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING AND HYDRATION.
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ON THE HORIZON WITH A COLD FRONT AND
PERSISTENT OPAQUE CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGHING BREAKS DOWN AND ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE
EASTERN CONUS BY MID/LATE WEEK, ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING BACK THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT THURS
AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY, BUT GREATER COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION ON FRI MAY LIMIT THIS RISK FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE WAVES
TODAY. LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS AND WATER LOADED DOWNBURSTS WILL
BRING A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE ENHANCED MID-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND SUPPORT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
MCV'S FROM DECAYING CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY, LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
MET, SHOULD RESULT IN PERHAPS A FEW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. WEST-SOUTHWEST MEAN-WIND THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER OF 20-30 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED EASTWARD
MOVING STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF TAPPING INTO STRONG DCAPE AND
STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ANY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ESTABLISHED MCV.
THE SAME FAILURE MODE FOR HEAT, MENTIONED ABOVE, SUCH AS THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND SLOWER RISE IN LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURES, COULD ALSO IMPACT STORM SEVERITY TODAY.
MESOANALYSIS TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO ESTABLISH THE MOST-
LIKELY AND THE REASONABLE CEILING FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY DRY. A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BEHIND SUNDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, NW FLOW WILL BRING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY RIDES ALONG IT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REACHING OUR SOUTH AND EAST (MAINLY
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN) BOTH DAYS, BUT ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE DECREASED, AND
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY GIVEN A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND BELOW-NORMAL PW VALUES. WEDNESDAY MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SINKS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH.
CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN
THE NW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY.
STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR, AND BY FRIDAY, MODELS DEPICT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
FROM A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US. SO SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY, AND POPS ARE LIKELY
AREAWIDE. AROUND HALF OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT
AT LEAST 0.25" OF QPF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
FLOW, THOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
ALL TAFS BRING WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC MIST AT FAY.
SATURATED TOPSOIL AND LOWER CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM
CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR SUB-VFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING, WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE AT FAY,
WHICH RECEIVED 0.61" IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AROUND RWI, BUT MINIMAL RAINFALL AND BETTER
CONDITIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL PREVENTED AN INCLUSION
OF RESTRICTIONS WITH THE 06Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. RESTRICTIONS
WILL LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS 16Z AT RDU, FAY, RWI, BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
COME WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS FROM 20- 02Z FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUN
NIGHT/MON, WINDS SHIFTING FROM SWLY TO NWLY IN ITS WAKE. WHILE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
TUE-THU, BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST TUE/WED AND
NORTHWEST ON THU. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
MIST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND ANY TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
JUNE 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015 KFAY: 102/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 18: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 77/2025 KFAY: 76/2017
JUNE 19: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 73/2025 KFAY: 77/2017
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION... AS/JD
AVIATION... AS/10
CLIMATE... RAH
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