724
FXUS62 KRAH 041815
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL TRAVERSING CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 PM THURSDAY...
* ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TN WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHILE
MIXING OUT INTO LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING BETWEEN THE BREAKS IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NARROW TONGUE OF AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM UPSTATE SC THROUGH
THE TRIAD INTO CENTRAL VA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW GIVEN THE LOW-END INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, IF DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, 25-35 KTS OF SHEAR WOULD
BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ALONG A COMMON COLD POOL TO RESULT IN
A BOWING SEGMENT OR TWO, WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO PERSON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. AS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTRUNS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY PLUME, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE TRIANGLE THROUGH 8-10 PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS AND ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 105 PM THURSDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TREND.
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHIFTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ON FRI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNINTERRUPTED WARMING OF LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WHICH WILL LIKELY BE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MINOR TO MODERATE
HEATRISK IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PRIMARY AFFECT ANY INDIVIDUALS WHO
ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING AND/OR HYDRATION. LOWS WILL MILD AND SETTLE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE RETURNING TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A PRE-FRONTAL WAA
REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT OVER THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND THE COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE REGION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE 70S, WITH LOW 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED, DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT FAY AND RWI. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NC, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST,
LIKELY REACHING INT AND GSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
(FROM ROUGHLY 20Z TO 01Z). SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE, AND UPGRADED TO TEMPO GROUPS
AT THE TRIAD SITES WITH THE LATEST TAFS TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL,
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
HRRR DEPICTS THIS LINE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO RDU BY AROUND 23Z,
BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT POINT (MOSTLY SHOWERY IN
NATURE) AS WE WILL BE LOSING DAYTIME HEATING. STILL ADDED A PROB30
AT RDU FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SW WINDS WILL ALSO GUST UP TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
AROUND INT AND GSO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS TODAY,
AND PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES ARE INCREASING ON THE
LATEST HREF. BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS STILL
NOT IMPRESSIVE OVERALL, SO CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THIS COULD ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...DANCO/GREEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page