379
FXUS62 KRAH 040630
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SLIGHT INCREASE TO WIND GUSTS FOR MONDAY (15 TO 25 MPH) AND
TUESDAY (20 TO 30 MPH).
* INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...
1) DRY AND GUSTY WINDS TO BRING LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR
INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY AND GUSTY WINDS TO BRING LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR
INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL RETREAT TOWARDS BERMUDA
TODAY BEFORE SETTLING JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH
WED. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE PARENT HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG THE
TRAILING, SLOW-MOVING, COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY WED.
ENHANCED FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT WIND GUSTS 15-25
MPH MONDAY AND 20-30 MPH ON TUES. DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN WILL
RESULT IN DRY AFTERNOON RH AS THERMAL ADVECTION WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. THIS COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN MODERATE CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER WHERE THESE
METEOROLIGICAL CONDITIONS OVERLAP CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. THE
BEST OVERLAP WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC, WHICH MISSED OUT
ON THE STEADY, SOAKING RAINFALL ON SAT. FURTHER COORDINATION
WILL BE NEEDED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK ON WED, ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY.
REMINDER, ALTHOUGH 81 COUNTIES IN NC WERE LIFTED FROM THE BURN
BAN BY THE NC FOREST SERVICE, IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FORSYTH,
GUILFORD, DAVIDSON, RANDOLPH, ALAMANCE, CHATHAM, STANLY,
MONGOMERGY, MOORE, ANSON, STOKES, ROCKINGHAM, DAVIE, ROWAN,
IREDELL, CABARRUS, GASTON, MECKLENBURG AND UNION COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC, THOUGH SOME VARIANCE
REMAINS CONCERNING THE INTENSITY AND EXACT EXIT TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 MPH AHEAD OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY. FORCING FROM THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY, WILL PROVIDE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY INCONSISTENT ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTS DEPARTURE, CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO FILTER IN FRIDAY MORNING. ONE POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR TO MONITOR IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE
DESTABILIZATION NEEDED FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. A STREAM OF MID-LVL CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AND VIRGA SEEN
IN REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT STIRRING TONIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTINESS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CEASE AROUND SUNSET. MARGINAL
LLWS IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS THE LOW-LVL JET CENTERED
AROUND 1,500 FT STRENGTHENS TO 30-40 KTS (LEAST PROBABLE AT
KFAY).
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST TUES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-30KTS) BY TUES
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH MARGINAL LLWS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT, ALTHOUGH DEGREE
OF SURFACE MIXING IS UNCERTAIN. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, SHOWERS AND
STORMS, AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURS AS A COLD FROM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/CA
AVIATION...AS
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