542
FXUS62 KRAH 271817
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
218 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* THE CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 218 PM TUESDAY...
1) PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 218 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH IN THE
DELMARVA AREA AND OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH, IT WILL LEAD
TO POOLING OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE NORTHEAST MOIST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S
ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT ON A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS SPREADING
WEST FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASING, PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS GO
CALM. THIS LAYER OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND
DISPERSE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES, GENERALLY UPPER 60S WEST TO LOW/MID 70S
IN THE EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEASONAL TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE FRIDAY, AHEAD OF ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT THAT SLIDES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND THE LOW 80S.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, WITH COOL 1030 TO 1034-MB HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
FAVOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BUT FOCUSING ON THE SUN-MON PERIOD, THERE REMAINS
STILL A BIT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD. SPECIFICALLY, THE MACHINE-LEARNING
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE, AS A RESULT OF A
MORE FLAT AND MUTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, THEREBY LIMITING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME WETTER ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE DEVELOPED WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH AND THUS BETTER RAIN CHANCES. BUT EVEN GIVEN THAT,
THE SPREAD IN RAINFALL IS STILL LARGE, RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THUS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXPECTED
RAINFALL, IF ANY, AT THIS STAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. AFTER 04Z,
AN AREA OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AN SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC AND EXPAND AND SHIFT WEST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND AND THEN BELOW 1KFT WILL
DEVELOP AT KRWI BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AND KFAY BETWEEN 06Z AND O8Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYBREAK HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
IFR FOG AS WELL. AT KRDU, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER BUT THERE'S A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG DEVELOPING 06Z AND O8Z.
FURTHER WEST, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT KGSO AND KINT BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE PREVAILING IFR CIGS BEGINNING BETWEEN 10Z AND
13Z. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AREA WIDE WITH THE
STRATUS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND FOG BURNING OFF DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT
4 TO 8KTS THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5KTS OR LESS
TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT 6 TO 10KTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE AREAWIDE BY MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE AND DEGREE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN
AVIATION...BLAES
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