609
FXUS62 KRAH 031822
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* RAINFALL FORECAST TOTALS FOR SUNDAY HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...
1) A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRIANGLE, ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
2) PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE, ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
THROUGH THE DAY, A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER, 2PM
TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE 60S, WITH 70S ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
OF US-64, AND 80S CONTAINED TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. A LINE OF RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG
MUCH OF THE US-64 CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GAP NEAR THE TRIAD.
WHILE THIS LINE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE OF A CLUSTER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTH OF
US-64, MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN EAST OF RALEIGH AND
FAYETTEVILLE. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL THIS EVENING, WITH
RAINFALL RAMPING UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH OF US-64 SHOULD GENERALLY HAVE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY, MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US-64 WILL HAVE
AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVING 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, BEFORE
POTENTIALLY WAVERING BACK NORTH OVER THE REGION IN THE SOUTH
TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR A COOL WEDGE AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THUS, CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE COAST.
HOWEVER, CAM GUIDANCE IS STILL TRENDING DRIER IN REGARDS TO THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD REGION. MANY
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TRIAD MAY REMAIN DRY, OR ONLY RECEIVE
MINIMAL RAIN ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE 12Z HREF SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE UP TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER,
LOOKING AT THE LPMM DATA, IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE EAST TO RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. MONDAY MAY WARM UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S, WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S,
WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY. LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO
THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, HAVING PASSED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
FAY. FAY IS LIKELY TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, UNLESS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR, AND CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO LIFR. AS OF 1745Z, THERE IS CURRENTLY
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM RWI WEST TO RDU AND HBI, ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE FOCUS OF RAINFALL - THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF RDU, RWI, AND FAY. THIS
AREA SHOULD FILL IN, NOT AS A LINE SEGMENT, BUT AS A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAY APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
SHOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS - INT/GSO SHOULD BE
TOO STABLE AT THIS POINT, AND IT APPEARS THAT RDU/RWI WILL HAVE
MINIMAL INSTABILITY BEING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE INT/GSO MAY GO VFR SUNDAY
NIGHT, OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY KEEP RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MONDAY.
DRY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/LH
AVIATION...GREEN
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