081
FXUS62 KRAH 080021
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
821 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INDICATIONS OF A MORE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY WETTER PATTERN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
1) ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH IN THE 90S CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TOMORROW, BRINGING ISOLATED
NORTHERN/WESTERN STORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER RELIEF MONDAY
NIGHT.
2)AFTER A BREAK ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS HEAT ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
3) INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT
WEEKEND COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER RAINFALL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH IN THE 90S CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TOMORROW,
BRINGING ISOLATED NORTHERN/WESTERN STORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND MUCH
COOLER RELIEF MONDAY NIGHT.
WARMTH CONTINUES TODAY AND ONE MORE DAY TOMORROW. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID-90S, WITH UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TRIANGLE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.
WHILE MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER,
ISOLATED CELLS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW, NE
PIEDMONT, AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. MONDAY REMAINS WARM AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY, BRINGING COOLER RELIEF MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... AFTER A BREAK ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS HEAT ARRIVING ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
THE MODEST COOL FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE AIRMASS WARMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING
ABOUT 10 TO 12M ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DEW POINTS NUDGED UPWARD AN MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT
THEY SHOULD BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING OF 6 TO 8KFT.
A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF HEAT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND LIKELY PEAKS ON FRIDAY. MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1400 TO 1410M RANGE ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THE 1420S ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE CORE OF THE HOT AIRMASS
IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION, THESE
THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 90S. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID AND SO HEAT IMPACTS WILL BE GREATER. NOTE
THAT SOME OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, PRIMARILY THE NBM APPEAR WAY
TOO HOT WITH MANY LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHS IN THE 98 TO 102 RANGE.
THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK TOOL SHOWS A 50-80% CHANCE
OF REACHING MAJOR HEAT LEVELS, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN, ON THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY, SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR ALL POPULATIONS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
THE HEAT RELAXES A BIT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND HEAT RISK
DECREASES A BIT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUD COVER AND AN
UPWARD TICK IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A BIT BUT IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3... INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED.
THE MODEST COOL FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
STALLS ON TUESDAY AND BECOMES MERIDIONAL AS IT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NC INTO WESTERN SC. BETTER
MOISTURE AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, OTHERWISE FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPANDING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPWARD TICK IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHICH WILL CLIMB ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS AND
POTENTIALLY A LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD AIDE IN PROVIDE AT LEAST A
MEAGER TO MODEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES WILL
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS IN A FEW DAYS, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW
END CHANCE (20 TO 35%, GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST) OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNALS IN SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW
AND MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. A HANDFUL, PERHAPS 10 TO 15% OF THE EC AN GFS ENSEMBLES
EVEN SUGGEST SOME SORT OF NORTHWARD ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR ON MONDAY. STILL, WPC'S 7 DAY
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCHES, WHICH IS 50% OF
AVERAGE OR LESS AND AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE PATCHES OF HIGHER TOTALS WITH MANY AREAS NOT SEEING
MUCH IF ANY RAIN AT ALL.
FINALLY, I'D BE WARY OF AUTOMATED FORECASTS AND APPS THAT SHOW RAIN
CHANCES OF 50 TO 70% DURING THE WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THESE ARE TOO HIGH.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH JUST SOME PERIODS OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN VA THIS EVENING AND REACH THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND
FAR NE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT FROM ABOUT 03Z TO 08Z AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN WEAK AND
SPOTTY AT BEST SO FAR, BUT THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT SOME
POTENTIAL LATER ON, SO RETAIN A PROB30 FOR TS AT RWI. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SW AND LIGHT (LESS THAN 7 KTS) TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO NE ON
MONDAY MORNING THEN E LATER IN THE DAY (AROUND 5-10 KTS). SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH MAY CONTAIN BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS, ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM INT/GSO SE
THROUGH FAY, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AT RDU, AND RWI EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CIGS MON NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TUE ACROSS THE W AND SW INCLUDING INT/GSO. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION ON TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY WED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, AND
TYPICAL DAYTIME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 7:
KGSO: 98/1925
KRDU: 100/2008
KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 10:
KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11:
KGSO: 98/1914
KRDU: 100/1914
KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12:
KRDU: 98/2002
KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13:
KRDU: 100/2002
KFAY: 99/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 7:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 74/2008
JUNE 8:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 75/1899
KFAY: 74/2008
JUNE 11:
KGSO: 74/2008
KRDU: 74/2008
KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12:
KGSO: 72/1998
KRDU: 75/1986
KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13:
KGSO: 73/2015
KRDU: 75/2025
KFAY: 77/1998
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/JB
AVIATION...DANCO/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE..RAH
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