738
FXUS62 KRAH 091052
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
652 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TRENDING HOTTER AND DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 144 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HEAT
INDICES PEAKING AROUND 100-102 IN THE EAST FRIDAY.
2) THE CHANCE OF MAINLY PM THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO UP FRIDAY, PEAK
SATURDAY, AND LOWER AGAIN BY SUNDAY.
3) TRENDING HOTTER AND DRIER WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 144 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND 100 TO 102 DEGREES FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES THURSDAY,
SHIFTING SLOWLY OFF THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE MID 60S THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S ON
FRIDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS FRIDAY WILL MEAN HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PEAK THEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE CHANCE OF MAINLY PM THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO UP
FRIDAY, PEAK SATURDAY, AND LOWER AGAIN BY SUNDAY.
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN DAMPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FRIDAY SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF A FEW LATE DAY STORMS.
HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY AS THE DAMPENING TROUGH
AND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARBY. THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS LOW EVEN WITH THE MODERATELY HIGH INSTABILITY FORECAST.
SHEAR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S NW
TO S SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ON THE WANE AGAIN BY
SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THE FRONT WASHING OUT. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN RISE TO 90 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3... TRENDING HOTTER AND DRIER WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING AGAIN SUNDAY OVER THE SE
STATES, PEAKING TUESDAY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR ALABAMA
VICINITY AT 597 DM. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN WELL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES
PROJECTED AT OR AROUND 100 IN THE EAST. POP WILL BE LESS THAN 15
PERCENT.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHALLOW RADIATION FOG/MIST AT RWI SHOULD DISPERSE BY 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SLY TO SSWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT, INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
NOW PROGRESSING OFF THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND ACROSS CNTL NC LATE
TONIGHT, AT WHICH TIME A MARGINAL RISK OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
RESULT AT PIEDMONT SITES AND RWI, AND MORE SO POINTS NEWD ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK: AFTER JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAINLY AT
FAY FRI MORNING, A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE INTO NC LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
DURING WHICH TIME A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL RESULT. AREAS OF IFR-
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO PROBABLY RESULT OVER THE PIEDMONT SAT
MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...MWS
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