176
FXUS62 KRAH 271641
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1241 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
* NO MAJOR CHANCES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.
* UPDATED THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW TO INCLUDE THE DAILY AND
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1220 PM SATURDAY...
1) SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
2) A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DAYS OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND OPPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1220 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS OF 11:30 AM, A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING MCVS, ARE LOCATED MAINLY ACROSS
KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON TO
SPUR OUR SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STARTING TO FORM TO OUR WEST IN THE NC MOUNTAINS OFF OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S, HELPING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN BY
MUCAPE VALUES, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
AND DCAPE REACHING ABOUT 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
ENERGY TO HELP STORMS FORM AND BE SUSTAINED BY A MODEST 20- 30
KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS, ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND WET MICROBURSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS
WITHIN ANY STORMS THAT FORM OR ARE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALIZED AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS.
THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR SUN APPEAR TO FEATURE MANY MESOSCALE
DETAILS THAT WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. LATEST SUITE OF 12Z
HI- RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL ESTABLISHED MCV ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
GENERALLY EASTWARD, ATOP OF THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUN MORNING AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SUN AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS,
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STATE OF THE PRECEDING AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NC IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION TODAY (SATURDAY).
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING SOMEWHERE
OVER THE AREA, AS WELL AS MORNING LOW- OVERCAST THAT MAY BE SLOW
TO LIFT AND RESULT IN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA. WHERE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION IS ABLE TO OCCUR, 1500-2500
SBCAPE WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO EASILY DEVELOP WITHIN
A MOIST THERMO-PROFILE (PWAT VALUES AROUND 2"). LOCALLY ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE MCV WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE
OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH 20-30 KTS OF SHEAR RESULTING IN
MOST LIKELY MULTICELL CLUSTERS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE HAZARD, BUT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING MCV,
A BRIEF TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DAYS OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND OPPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INITIALLY OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUN BEFORE FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND
WOBBLING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LREF PERCENTILE DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE WILL
PEAK AT 595-600 DAM AT H5 OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
BASED ON NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY, THIS WILL EXCEED THE 99.5TH
PERCENTILE OVER LARGE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD/WARM OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH WED BEFORE ADVECTING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURS
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT (JULY 4TH).
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING HEAT WILL
BE THURS AND FRI WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE CORE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN/MIDDLE APPALACHIANS WILL
GREATLY SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. ALTHOUGH,
DRY AIR WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND REDUCE DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S DURING PEAK HEATING
(AND LOWERING APPARENT "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
AIR TEMPERATURE), AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
(60-80% CHANCE FOR >= 98 ON THURS AND 80-95% FOR >= 98 ON FRI);
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN MAY RUN INTO
ISSUES WITH A RAPIDLY INLAND ADVANCING SEABREEZE THAT MAY COOL
TEMPERATURES BY PEAK HEATING. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY SAT, THIS WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES SURROUNDING A COMPACT S/W MIGRATING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE RIDGE, WHICH MAY HELP BRING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOME CONVECTIVE CHANGES TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW-PREDICTABILITY DISTURBANCES', THE
AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS
AND LIFE-THREATENING HEAT FOR THE 4TH.
STAY INFORMED AND TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOURSELF AND OTHERS
FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. DURING EXTREME TEMPERATURES, LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR-
CONDITIONING AND OTHER COOLING AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
AFTER SUNRISE AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING, ANY LINGERING STRATUS
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z. THEN, THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 17-20Z OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT (KINT/KGSO) BEFORE STORMS EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING (KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI). COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SCATTERED RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD, BUT ANY TERMINAL
DIRECTLY IMPACTED COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAINFALL, VISIBILITY BELOW 1 SM, CEILINGS BELOW 1 KFT, AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 KT. AFTER 02-04Z, CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE
STORMS EXIT TO OUR EAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY IFR STRATUS,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-1 TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY LATE TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAINS ONLY
MODERATE.
OUTLOOK: MORNING LOW-OVERCAST AND MIST AND SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MON MORNING. A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 107/2007-08-09
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954 KFAY: 106/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1990
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LH/AS
AVIATION...NP
CLIMATE...RAH
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