065
FXUS62 KRAH 111810
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NEGLIGIBLE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
1) MINIMAL RAIN FOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
3) HOT AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MINIMAL RAIN FOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING, WITH A
SURGE OF COOL NELY FLOW PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT,
SANDHILLS, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS THE STRATIFORM
RAIN SHIELD REMAINS MOSTLY UP INTO VA. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW TRACE TO
A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER, BUT OVERALL QPF
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION DOWN IN SC SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC AT THIS POINT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL HAS BEEN FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN, BUT SOME GUIDANCE EXTENDS THIS DOWN TO
RDU OR EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. REGARDLESS, THOSE ACROSS THE
NC/VA BORDER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SLOWER TRAVEL FOR
TOMORROW'S MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
EXPECTED AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK,
WHICH WILL LESSEN THE RISK OF STRONGER OR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER,
ADEQUATE SHEAR PARAMETERS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IN THE TRIAD WHERE THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH FIRST AS THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
INSTABILITY. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE LATEST LREF, WHICH INCLUDES
THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AND THE GEFS, IS SUGGESTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC. IF ANY STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOP, A FEW DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE
COULD BE A FEW SWATHS OF UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3... HOT AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AFTER WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY, CENTRAL NC WILL
HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S, INCREASING TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...
AN AREA OF MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE NC/VA
BORDER INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN (AFFECTING RDU
AND RWI). THESE SHOULD SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST AND SCATTER THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES SHIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS GO CALM TO LIGHTLY
STIRRED. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT INT, GSO, RDU AND PERHAPS RWI (BEST CHANCES AROUND
RDU VICINITY). ANY FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY
SCATTER/CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WED EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW-LVL
MOISTURE RETURN MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST GUSTY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THURS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/HELOCK
AVIATION...AS
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