406
FXUS62 KRAH 152350
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
750 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
SETTLE THROUGH CNTL NC FRI-SAT, WITH LESS HOT TEMPERATURES (THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ON SAT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...
1) CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
CNTL NC ON FRI AND LINGER MAINLY ACROSS SRN/SERN NC ON SAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS CNTL NC ON FRI AND LINGER MAINLY ACROSS SRN/SERN NC ON
SAT.
DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE NOW BUILDING ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS, CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
DOWN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING, THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC PIEDMONT LATER THURSDAY
AND PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE/MODIFY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT BY THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING, THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ALONG THE
PASSING COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT CNTL NC ON FRI, THEN LINGER ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN)
MAINLY ACROSS SRN/SERN NC ON SAT. SAT WILL OTHERWISE NOT BE AS HOT
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. RETURN FLOW SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL THEN YIELD INCREASING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 750 PM TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED FOG BANKS NEAR RWI 09Z-12Z WED MORNING, BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM CERTAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT MAINLY
FROM THE NE OR E, UNDER 10 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z THU, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRI
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN SHALLOW FOG
BANKS AT RWI EARLY THU MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE
LIKELY FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN, PRIMARILY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, RESULTING IN A HIGHER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES, INCLUDING POCKETS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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