004
FXUS62 KRAH 252352
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
1) NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS BOTH TODAY AND
TUE MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH NOT EVERYONE
WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN.
2) WETTER PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
BOTH TODAY AND TUE MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE NOTED, WE REMAIN IN A HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT
NEAR 2", ABOUT 175-200% OF NORMAL, WITH A DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THIS
IS MANIFESTING IN SPOTTY AREAS OF DECENT RAIN RATES, FROM A TENTH TO
OVER A HALF INCH PER HOUR WITHIN STORM CLUSTERS FROM JUST SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD INTO THE TRIANGLE AND DOWN INTO THE S COASTAL PLAIN AND E
SANDHILLS. THE SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE S PLAINS ACROSS THE
MID MISS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY TO THE E GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN TO
OUR N THROUGH TUE, KEEPING US STATUS QUO WITHIN STEADY INFLUX OF
WARM MOIST AIR AMIDST BROAD SBCAPE AND SHOTS OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT, INCLUDING THAT GENERATED BY SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
AND MCVS BEING DRAWN N AND NNE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE-
CENTERED MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-
2500 SBCAPE OVER THE AREA, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT CONVECTION DESPITE
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE
CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSISTING OVER MAINLY OUR
CENTRAL AND SE, AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK NNE FROM SC INTO
EARLY EVENING. WE'LL ALSO SEE CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SPREADING NE AND E LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
AFFECTING THE N AND W PIEDMONT, WITH LIFT BOOSTED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET CORE TO OUR N, AUGMENTED BY MCVS ROLLING UP
FROM THE GULF COAST. WILL START WITH HIGHEST POPS FROM THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR EAST, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A PEAK ON POPS FROM THE TRIANGLE
TO THE N AND W THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS
ARE VERY LOW DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ANY HIGH RAIN
RATES COULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
IN LOW AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE EXIT OF DYNAMIC FORCING AND
NOCTURNAL RELATIVE STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TO A LULL
IN POPS AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUE, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS, SOURCE
REGION, OR FORCING MECHANISMS, PERSISTENCE SHOULD RULE. AFTER
CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT STRATUS AND PATCHES OF FOG, ANOTHER SLOW
LIFTING OF THIS LOW DECK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN ANY
BIT OF INSOLATION AND HEATING WILL PUSH UP CAPE VALUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE STILL-DAMP COLUMN.
WHILE THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER THREAT OF STORM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY
HIGH RAIN RATES, EXACTLY WHERE THIS RAIN MIGHT FALL IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. THE LATEST HREF MEMBERS SHOW A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR PATTERN TO
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS IN OUR SE, TRENDING TO HAVING
THE HIGHER POPS IN THE NW BY EVENING AS ACTIVITY ROLLS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, THOUGH, POPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, AND ISOLATED
STREET FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 ... WETTER PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE
THIS WILL STILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST, FLOW OUT
OF THE WEST WILL NOT CONTAIN AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE WEEKEND, AND OVERALL RAIN TOTALS
SHOULD BE LESS. MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BECOME HUNG UP
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW SHOULD BRING SOME
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST, PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF US-64 AND THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH, AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 752 PM MONDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE OVERTURNED THE AIR MASS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION WHICH LOWERS THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT CONTINUED PRIME
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH 05Z-06Z. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN THE TRIAD WHICH IS NEAR THE DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AT 00Z/THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY AROUND 06Z.
LOW STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN
05Z AND 08Z (IFR). SOME MVFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD LINGER IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
18Z, BUT WE WILL TRY IN LATER FORECASTS TO PIN DOWN THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO HAVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND FOR HOW LONG.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED, THE CYCLE OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU, WITH
DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRI BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY RETURN SAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019
MAY 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004
MAY 27: KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006
MAY 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/GREEN
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLIMATE...RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page