455
FXUS62 KRAH 061755
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 155 PM THURSDAY...
1) THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY WEST OF US-1, AS
WELL AS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA.
2) RISK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT MANY FAILURE MODES EXISTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED FORECAST
PATTERN WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 155 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
WEST OF US-1, AS WELL AS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THE 12:30PM UPDATE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY WEST OF US-1) HAS BEEN
ADDED TO A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS MINIMAL TODAY, MEANING THAT IT WILL BE
HARD FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED, AND WIND SPEED THROUGH THE
VERTICAL PROFILE IS LOW, MEANING THAT STORMS WILL HAVE A SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT, CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. THE THREAT SHOULD LAST PRIMARILY THROUGH SUNSET, WHICH IS
WHEN THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. HOWEVER,
LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION, WITH THE SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT, ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL DUE TO
TRAINING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 ... RISK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MANY FAILURE MODES EXISTS WITHIN THE
EXPECTED FORECAST PATTERN WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE RETROGRADING AND
ELONGATED WESTWARD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK OVER THE CAROLINAS AS SEASONABLY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS INTO
EARLY/MID WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL LIKELY BE
COMPLICATED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITHIN THE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION, BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WARMING H850 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20C WILL SUPPORT LOW-
MID 90S AS EARLY AS SUN, AND AS HIGH AS UPPER 90S POSSIBLE TUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON THE POSITION/LOCATION OF A PERSIST PIEDMONT TROUGH, WITH DRIER
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO ITS WEST AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO ITS EAST.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS FEATURE, AND THAT REMAIN VOID OF CONVECTION,
WILL LIKELY REACH MODERATE HEATRISK AND ECLIPSE 105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
ONCE AGAIN. MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP AT FAY WHERE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST, ALONG WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT INT/GSO/RDU
WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS, ALONG WITH SLIGHT TIMING TWEAKS. WITH
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWING MINIMAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEAR
RWI, HAVE ACTUALLY REMOVED THE TSRA MENTION THERE. AS FOR
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE CHANCE FOR FOG
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS BEING FAY/RWI. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED OR GO BROKEN, AND WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT KFAY, HAVE INTRODUCED SCATTERED LIFR CLOUDS
THERE. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH NO CHANGE IN THE MUGGY
AIRMASS, CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAWN EACH MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/SWIGGETT
AVIATION...GREEN
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