185
FXUS62 KRAH 132332
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE CHANCE FOR STORMS HAS TRENDED LOWER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
* DANGEROUS HEAT INCREASINGLY FAVORED MID TO LATE WEEK, WED-SAT.
* CONVECTION CHANCES STILL EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARD THE WEEKEND,
BUT FRI HAS TRENDED DRIER.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
1) SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSE A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT TODAY. PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL OVER THE PIEDMONT.
2) HEATING UP BY WED-THU, BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS LOW UNTIL FRI-SAT.
3) CONTINUED HOT THIS WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSE A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT TODAY. PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
HAS PUSHED S AND SW OF CENTRAL NC, SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND S SC
BACK TOWARD FAR SW NC. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
STATES STRETCHES BACK THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE A
STRONGER FRONT RESIDES, WELL TO OUR NE. THE COPIOUS CLOUD COVER AND
THE COOLER TEMPS TODAY (BY AS MUCH AS 5-12 DEG) WITHIN A NE AND E
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE HELPED KEEP MLCAPE IN CHECK, 500 J/KG OR LOWER
EXCEPT NEAR 1000 J/KG IN OUR SE, WHERE MORE HOLES HAVE OPENED UP IN
THE CLOUDS AND WHERE GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY GREATER VERTICAL
CLOUD EXTENT. PRECIP TODAY HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY THUS FAR AND
FOCUSED MOSTLY IN THE W PIEDMONT. WHILE THE COLUMN IS MORE STABLE
HERE, LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH, THE SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND STEADY
DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS AMIDST HIGH PW (~125% OF NORMAL) AND
LIFT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL STILL YIELD A RISK
FOR LOCALIZED ELEVATED RAIN RATES AND TOTALS RESULTING IN MOSTLY
MINOR FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG SMALLER
CREEKS. AS THE BAGGY MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING W-E OVER N NC
CONTINUES TO EASE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND DWINDLE, LEAVING US MOSTLY DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. REGARDING TEMPS, WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S,
WHILE AREAS FURTHER E AND S TOP OUT AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 N TO S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HEATING UP MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDLY LEVELS.
A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH, ONE WHICH APPEARED TO
HAVE TIED THE ALL-TIME OBSERVED RECORD 500 MB HEIGHT OF 600 DAM AT
RAPID CITY, SD LAST EVENING (AND WHICH MAY HAVE BROKEN IT THIS
MORNING IF NOT FOR THE VOID OF 12Z RAOB DATA), WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THEN WEAKEN AND SPLIT THROUGH
FRI.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST WWD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY WED, THEN YIELD TO AN
APPALACHIAN-LEE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE
INFLUENCE OF THOSE FEATURES, AMID AN INCREASINGLY STRONGLY AND
DEEPLY-HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER MID TO LATE WEEK, WILL LIKELY CAUSE
AFTERNOON/MIXED DEWPOINTS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE 60S F, WITH
RELATED RH MOSTLY BETWEEN 30-40%. SO DESPITE THE HOTTER
TEMPERATURES, WITH MID TO UPR 90S LIKELY BY THU, HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD BE TEMPERED AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 105 F (EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN).
KEY MESSAGE 3... CONTINUED HOT THIS WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE SPLIT AND
WEAKENED BY THE WEEKEND, WITH A TROUGH AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, ITS PRECEDING
SUBSIDENT HEATING INFLUENCE WILL LINGER UNTIL CONVECTION AND/OR A
FRONT ERADICATES THE HOT AIRMASS. NEITHER APPEAR PROBABLE UNTIL SUN;
AND THERE REMAINS LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGHING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED PROGRESSION OF A
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE INTO-THROUGH NC SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
SUCH, HOT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST/ALL OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH INITIALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON SAT
INCREASING INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE ON SUN.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...
CEILINGS WILL BE CHALLENGING TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z/TUESDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AT MOST SITES TONIGHT BY AROUND
06Z-08Z, THEN PERSIST THROUGH 13Z-14Z - BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO VFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY AROUND KFAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH PATCHY SUB-VFR STRATUS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AT FAY NEAR DAYBREAK WED/THU. ISOLATED LATE-DAY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRI, THEN CHANCES RISE TO SCATTERED PM STORMS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887 KFAY: 103/1937
JULY 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932
JULY 18: KGSO: 97/1986
JULY 19: KFAY: 101/2002
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 16: KGSO: 75/2024 KFAY: 78/1992
JULY 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019
JULY 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KRDU: 80/2025 KFAY: 77/2025
JULY 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 80/1942 KFAY: 77/2023
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/MWS
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
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