862
FXUS62 KRAH 160008
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...
A VERY WEAK, LOW-AMPLITUDE S/W TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OUT ACROSS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT,
WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH-OUT AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
AREA THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION,
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, WITHIN THE LEFT BEHIND MID-LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOIST BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS AND FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY, WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL
SECURE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY. THE
LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES, WHERE
SEABREEZE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIFT DRIFT INTO
SAMPSON COUNTY. HIGHS 87 TO 91. LOWS 65 TO 70.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 257 PM SUNDAY...
THE REIGN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN
END ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID WEEK THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
GIVING THE REGION SOME OF ITS FIRST HINTS OF THE FALL SEASON.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED WEST
TO EAST JUST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER IN VA. MODEL TIMING WITH
PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT PASSAGE CONTINUES TO DIFFER SLIGHTLY, BUT ALL
HINT AT A COMPLETE PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT LIKELY LIMITED BY GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE
AND ALMOST CERTAINLY IN DURATION THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FROPA FORCING. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY, WITH A RATHER
SHARP GRADIENT AND NON-DIURNAL CURVE .ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
LIKELY THANKS TO THE FRONT'S INFLUENCE. FOR NOW, HAVE RETAINED
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 80 BY LUNCHTIME
CLOSER TO THE VA/NC BORDER. CAA WILL GIVE THE COOLING CYCLE A BIT OF
A HEAD START LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SETTLING NEAR 70 DEGREES. SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THE PRIMARY DEWPOINT FRONT ARRIVES ROUGHLY 12 TO 18 HOURS AFTER THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT (WEDNESDAY MORNING), HELPING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO INTERMITTENT CLOUDS AND A BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND LIKELY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A READING OR TWO IN THE 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING WITH VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMS TO HAVE FAILED TODAY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CAPPING AROUND 750 MB. A STALLED BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH SOME DRIER AIR
TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO KINT. EAST OF KINT A WIDE WARM SECTOR
EXISTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES
AT KINT IS ~62 WHICH APPEARS TO LOW FOR FOG FORMATION, WHILE THE
CROSS OVER AT KRWI IS 69. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
LIKELY FALL BELOW THIS SUPPORTING DENSE FOG. FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY AT KRDU, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT KFAY. DENSE FOG WILL
THEN QUICKLY LIFT MONDAY MORNING WITH ALL TAF SITES QUICKLY
GOING VFR.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE TRIAD KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HAINES
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