482
FXUS62 KRAH 121748
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE
TO TREND DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...
1) A BROKEN LINE OF DECAYING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROKEN LINE OF DECAYING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CENTRAL NC WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN-
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WED MORNING, WITH THE FORMER POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LATTER SHIFTING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE, AN
OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WED AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE WED EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED BY AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM WAVE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
THE SHARPENING NORTHERN SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
PRECEDING AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING/DECAYING TREND
WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE OF DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK NEGATIVE THETA-E MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH SUGGESTS CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY MAY
BE RELEASED BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WITH PRIMARY DPVA EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEAKENING
SUBSTANTIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, MAINTENANCE OF OF DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
LATEST HREF/REFS LPMM TOTAL PRECIPITATION FIELDS REFLECT THIS
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOW
RECEIVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN 0.1". SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC/VA FOOTHILLS INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION MAY STILL EXIST
BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING TAKES PLACE AND BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL OVERLAP THE BAND OF MID-LVL MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AFTER WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY INCREASE STARTING
SATURDAY WHEN CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 80S, INCREASING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES. ALSO DURING THIS TIME, A FEW WAVES
OF WEAK ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THIS MAY
ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, WEAK FORCING
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
CALM OVERNIGHT EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS COULD EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
THUS, DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THE 18Z TAF.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
THURSDAY, ALBEIT WITH GUSTY WINDS, AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 16:
KGSO: 92/1941
KRDU: 94/1941
KFAY: 96/1933
MAY 17:
KGSO: 94/1915
KRDU: 92/1947
KFAY: 97/1941
MAY 18:
KGSO: 95/1911
KRDU: 95/1906
KFAY: 96/1911
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17:
KGSO: 69/1991
KRDU: 71/2025
MAY 18:
KGSO: 70/2015
KRDU: 72/1896
KFAY: 71/2018
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/HELOCK
AVIATION...CA/10
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