480
FXUS62 KRAH 231030
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION, AND
NOW LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE NC COAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE NC COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO REMAIN
IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW (PERHAPS MID) 70S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAINFALL
IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST
AND MOVE TO THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD HELP THE CAD ERODE THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE EROSION SHOULD BE AIDED BY DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE
THE CAD LOOKS TO REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WINDS LOOK LIKELY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE CAD ERODES, TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF TODAY.
A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR THE DECK OF 500-900 FT OVC
CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ALONG WITH THIS,
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS OR REDUCTIONS FROM THE IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
FROM EAST TO WEST. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH AT LEAST SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LH
AVIATION...LH/NP
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