476
FXUS62 KRAH 021802
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 PM EDT THU APR 02 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
1) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-80S (10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-60S (15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), WITH
SATURDAY ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL HIGH BEGINS MIGRATING BACK EAST, PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER ON SATURDAY VS FRIDAY AS WE START TO GET WEAK MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS CHANCE WILL BE GREATEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
(WEST OF THE TRIANGLE) WHICH WILL BE FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE HIGH.
BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING, LIMITED CAPE, AND A CAPPING INVERSION,
POPS ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH RESULTING MODERATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OF 30-60 M/12 HR ACROSS CENTRAL NC. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
THE 35-50 KT RANGE, SO SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE
EVENING COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE DAY WOULD GIVE MORE TIME FOR
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP. THE GFS IS FASTER AND
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NC STARTING IN THE MORNING, GREATLY
LIMITING SBCAPE AND FOCUSING IT MAINLY IN THE SE. THE SLOWER ECMWF
AND NAM WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SBCAPE ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION, BUT IT
STILL ISN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE (AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS) GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. POPS CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE, BUT ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS GENERALLY A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE VERY LIMITED RELIEF
FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-40S. A REINFORCING COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DROP TO THE MID-30S TO LOWER-40S, STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
PARTICULARLY THE MEX SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT
OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. SO FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE GROWING SEASON STARTED FOR CENTRAL NC
ON APRIL 1. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THAT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER-
50S TO LOWER-60S. THE COLD HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FROST CONCERNS ON
THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM THURSDAY...
AREAS OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CONCENTRATE
OVER THE PIEDMONT, TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF FAY AND RWI, BETWEEN 09-
15Z FRI. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY ALSO RESULT FROM THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD LAYER OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD THEN LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN SAT AND SUN MORNINGS, AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTL NC SUN AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 2:
KGSO: 87/2010
KFAY: 90/1974
APRIL 3:
KFAY: 90/1934
APRIL 4:
KGSO: 87/2025
KRDU: 90/2025
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024
APRIL 5:
KFAY: 67/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO
AVIATION...MWS
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