136
FXUS62 KRAH 261050
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT WILL CONTAIN THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OF THIS NEXT 7 DAYS. HOTTEST WEATHER LIKELY MON
THROUGH WED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK, WITH ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
2) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO END AUGUST AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK, WITH ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
OUR CURRENT SETUP FEATURING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO NC
FROM THE N WITHIN BELOW-NORMAL PW WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TO A
WETTER PATTERN WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY BY
THU. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING, ALLOWING A DIFFUSE STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING
FROM IA/MO SE AND E THROUGH AL/GA/SC TO OFF THE S NC COAST TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH NC TODAY. THE ENSUING INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY-COMPONENT FLOW WILL DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL NC,
WHILE ALOFT, ABOVE-NORMAL PW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISS VALLEY WILL SWING SE AND E INTO THE CAROLINAS. OUR MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE GENTLY CYCLONIC AS A BAGGY TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO OUR W,
REINFORCED BY DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH S ONT/N MI, AND
NESTLED BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXES ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH BASE TO THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH, THE BOUTS OF RRQ UPPER
DIVERGENCE, MODEST DPVA, ABOVE-NORMAL PW, INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS, AND MODERATE SBCAPE WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL NC, PARTICULARLY LATE THU THROUGH MUCH OF SAT.
GIVEN EXPECTED PWS OVER 2", DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OVER 4 KM FAVORING
WARM RAIN PROCESSES, AND POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT SLOW STORM MOTION AND
TRAINING, POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HIGH RAIN TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A FLOOD WATCH,
BUT AT LEAST A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
HEAD BACK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
PIVOTS CLOCKWISE TO A W-E ORIENTATION AND PUSHES TO OUR S, ALLOWING
MID-UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO END AUGUST AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
THE PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE FOUR CORNER REGION WILL BE DISPLACED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESS THROUGH THE PACNW AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PROCESS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MID/UPPER LVL
HEIGHTS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
THIS HEIGHT PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR POSITIVE H850 TEMP
ANOMALIES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND FAVOR WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL NATURALLY BE
COMPLICATED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES, DEEP
LAYER OF ANOMALOUS LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS MAY HELP MITIGATE
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES ONWARD WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL
HEATRISK HAVING A 40-70% CHANCE OF REACHING THE MAJOR RISK CATEGORY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DOMINATE CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH HOLDS OVER NC, AND A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. BUT
ISOLATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE NE (INCLUDING RWI) WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LIFTING BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SCT VFR CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE NW AND W THIS EVENING WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS BASED AT 5-6KFT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 22Z, MOVING W TO E. WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL COME AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10
KTS FROM THE S AND SW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE
PRE-DAWN AND FROM DUSK THROUGH NIGHTTIME.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z THU, ANY PATCHY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING THU. A HIGHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRI, WITH ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE LATE FRI
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN DECREASE FOR LATE SAT
THROUGH SUN AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 31: KGSO: 73/2012
SEPTEMBER 1: KGSO: 74/2012 KRDU: 76/1932 KFAY: 77/2021
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/SWIGGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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