718
FXUS62 KRAH 041811
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...
1) CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE/MIST CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH RAIN LIKELY
RETURNING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE/MIST CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE STALLED ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA, ALLOWING THE CAD WEDGE AIRMASS TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL NC. THAT HAS LED TO THE COOL, CLOUDY, AND DRIZZLY/MISTY
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN ONGOING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO
POTENTIALLY AROUND 70 IN THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE
DONE FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/MIST CONTINUING IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATE TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
RAIN LIKELY RETURNING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AS THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. CONSIDERING THERE
WILL BE MORE SUN IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE EAST, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE A RARE CASE WHERE THE TRIAD HAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE MID
70S. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON TUESDAY,
BUT ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN, WITH CLOUD
COVER BEGINNING TO INCREASE BY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STORM THAT
WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST INTRODUCES A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL MANY
DAYS FOR THE SPECIFICS TO CHANGE WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
AS OF THE 17Z OBSERVATIONS, A DECK OF OVERCAST 400-700 FT STRATUS
CEILINGS WITH POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST ARE STILL OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL NC. THESE CEILINGS STILL LOOK TO SLOWLY LIFT, MAINLY IN THE
WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TRIAD TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND
THEN TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. RDU AND FAY SHOULD BE THE NEXT TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR TONIGHT, WHILE RWI LOOKS TO REMAIN IFR. HOWEVER,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT TOOK LONGER FOR IMPROVEMENTS THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW 500 FT AGAIN TONIGHT AT
ALL TAF SITES, WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE BEING AT RWI AND RDU,
FOLLOWED BY FAY AND THEN GSO AND INT. A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP CLEAR UP ANY REMAINING CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LH/GREEN
AVIATION...LH
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