654
FXUS62 KRAH 222252 RRA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
651 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREQUENCY OF EVENTS
INCREASE STARTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF APRIL,
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A HIGH-LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER CANADA AS EARLY AS THURS AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO PERSIST
OVER THE AREA AND STEADILY RAISE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BY 2-5M
EACH DAY. THESE THICKNESSES AND DEEP, BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES --10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL-- BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUN MORNING; EFFECTIVELY SETTLING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
BASED ON THESE TEMPERATURES, HEAT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTING MINOR TO
MODERATE LEVELS (LEVEL 1 AND LEVEL 2 RESPECTIVELY) THROUGH SAT.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO
ARE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING AND/OR HYDRATION. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY WITH 30-40 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DURING
PEAK HEATING, AND RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20-30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREQUENCY OF EVENTS
INCREASE STARTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF APRIL,
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES UNDERNEATH THE HIGH-
LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. THERE
IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TWO MAIN CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD; LATE SATURDAY INTO SUN
AND TUESDAY.
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUN: A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING. THIS
FEATURE, ALONG WITH EASTWARD ADVECTION OF SEASONABLY ANOMALOUS
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, WILL HELP DIRECT CONVECTIVELY PERTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
OVERALL QUITE WEAK AND LOCALIZED ALONG THE TRACK OF MCV'S FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION SO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECT.
EXPECT PRIMARILY TRACE AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.3".
TUESDAY: A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUN TO EARLY
TUES AROUND THE PARENT CLOSED-LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
ONCE AGAIN, THE CAROLINAS WILL ONLY SEE GLANCING INFLUENCE FROM
THE TROUGH AND MAINLY DIRECTS ANOTHER PLUME OF SEASONABLY
ANOMALOUS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND PERTURBED WESTERLY FLOW. THIS
BAND OF MOISTURE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL MODELED IN AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE TO BRING BRIEFLY LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN TO THE REGION
TUES MORNING. THEN, IN ITS WAKE, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES, MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. PREDICTABILITY
OF STORM INTENSITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 649 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING WHILE LIGHT RADAR ECHOES MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN DROPS MAY REACH
KRWI THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT OVERALL EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE
NON IMPACTFUL. RESIDUAL GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE HERE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD UNDER VFR SKIES.
OUTLOOK: DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURNS
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/LH
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