546
FXUS62 KRAH 302303
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
703 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
1) CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS ALONG THE NC COAST.
2) EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BY MID-
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS ALONG THE NC COAST.
OVERVIEW: A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER FL ON FRIDAY, AND SHIFT
NEWD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST FRI NIGHT. A SECONDARY INLAND LOW
WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ALONG THE FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE INLAND LOW SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, BUT MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY ON WHETHER THE TWO WILL MERGE OR REMAIN SEPARATE WITH
THE COASTAL LOW REMAINING DOMINANT AND DEEPENING WHILE THE SECONDARY
LOW SHEARS OUT ALONG THE FRONT. REGARDLESS, THE DOMINANT LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES NEWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ALOFT, A SRN STREAM S/W LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER THE NRN BAJA THU NIGHT, THEN TRACK EWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS FRI AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS FRI NIGHT AND ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON SAT AS IT SWINGS ABOUT
THE PARENT LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC, AMPLIFYING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
IN THE PROCESS. THE NRN STREAM S/W WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT AND OFFSHORE SUN.
PRECIPITATION: THERE MAY BE SOME EARLY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
FAR SRN COASTAL PLAIN FRI NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY LATE),
THOUGH EXACT TIMING VARIES. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE ONSET WILL BE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE, POSSIBLY REMAINING STRATIFORM ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT STAY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE COOL, MOSTLY
STABLE SIDE OF THEM. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS DO SHOW SOME VERY LIMITED, ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERY CHARACTER TO THE
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER, BUT BEST (SLIGHT) CHANCE WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE COAST (EXTREME SRN SAMPSON COUNTY) IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WIDE RANGE IN OVER ALL
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT, WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. FOR
NOW, TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE SRN COASTAL PLAIN.
TEMPERATURES: WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE EAST, EXPECT
A CONTINUED FEED OF COOL, DRY AIR FROM THE NNE INTO THE AREA ON SAT.
COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ON SAT, DIABATIC COOLING
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY PEAKING IN THE 50S, PERHAPS REACHING 60 DEGREES IN A
FEW SPOTS CLOSER TO THE LOW/FRONT (15-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL). RAIN
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA SAT EVENING, WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THE MTNS IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW SAT NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. WINDS MAY REMAIN A LITTLE STIRRED OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD
AIR ADVECTING IN WHICH, IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL LINGERING
CLOUDS IN SOME SPOTS, SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY, BUT WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER, EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN BY MID-WEEK.
AFTER COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY, RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES, BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. AS FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN, THERE ARE
DEFINITE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARYING MODELS, BUT IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONT SHOULD AT LEAST APPROACH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR TO IFR THEN LIFR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR SUNDAY. THE LONGEST
DURATION CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE AROUND FAY/RWI/RDU, WILL ACCOMPANY AN
AREA LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/GREEN
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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