767
FXUS62 KRAH 060002
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...
1) TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS AUTUMN FOR
MANY LOCATIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 40S.
2) DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR ANY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS
AUTUMN FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 40S.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AND OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL ALREADY KEEP
TUESDAY'S HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY'S HIGHS, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WHEN SUNSET OCCURS.
LITTLE MORE THAN A PASSING HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO GO CALM,
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST COULD REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, EVENLY
BLENDED THE DETERMINISTIC NBM WITH THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM,
BRINGING THE LOWS INTO THE 40S IN ALL LOCATIONS. LATER SHIFTS MAY
BLEND IN MORE OF A LOWER PERCENTILE AND/OR TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFSLAMP IN SHORTER TIME RANGES, AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A LOCATION EVENTUALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR ANY RAIN.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MODELS JUST BEGINNING TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS LIKELY TO MOVE TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WHETHER THE BEST
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GO NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
OR GO NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THIS BEING DAYS
AWAY, THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CHANGE. FOR NOW, THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A 40-50% CHANCE ELSEWHERE, AND
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND
WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CALM IN MOST PLACES, THEY SHOULD INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE NE. A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY AROUND FAY
AND RWI, BEFORE WINDS DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 3-5 KFT MOVING IN FROM THE
NE OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY MORNING. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING OCCURRING ANYWHERE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AFTER THAT ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR WEATHER EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE SW GULF,
WHICH ARE STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS HIGHER ON
SUNDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...DANCO
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