199
FXUS62 KRAH 120600
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
1) MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY.
2) A STRONG BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND DRY.
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US (IN BETWEEN
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THAT WILL ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST) WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, DROPPING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. SW FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO START
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S ON MONDAY AND
LOWER-TO-MID-80S ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER
WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT, AND IT IS NOW UNCLEAR IF IT EVEN MAKES IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY WARM FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID-60S. THURSDAY HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT IS ABLE TO GET. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
MINIMAL AND LARGELY PINNED OVER VA DUE TO THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DEEPENING AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST US. THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH SO
ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT, AND POPS ARE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER-TO-
MID-60S, WHICH IS ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PATCHY FROST MAY
EVEN BE A CONCERN, MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT. WHILE MOST PLACES HAVE FORECAST LOWS
IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOWER-40S, ISOLATED MID-30S AREN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN COOLER OUTLYING AREAS ACCORDING TO SOME MOS GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE, IN CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST, WILL
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCUMULUS BASES TODAY. WHILE
MOST ASSOCIATED CEILINGS WILL BE VFR, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF
MVFR ONE AT RWI AND RDU BETWEEN 14-17Z, AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONCENTRATES MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE DEVELOPING MIXED/BOUNDARY
LAYER. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20S KTS.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN MIST/FOG AT FAY WED MORNING, INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL FAVOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CNTL NC FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 13: KRDU: 89/1954
OCTOBER 14: KGSO: 85/1975 KRDU: 86/1985 KFAY: 90/1954
OCTOBER 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985
OCTOBER 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12: KGSO: 64/2017
OCTOBER 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO
AVIATION...MWS
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