179
FXUS62 KRAH 120131
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
931 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES; UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...
1) AN UPSTREAM COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE MOST
INTENSE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF CENTRAL NC.
2) MORE EXCESSIVE HEAT IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL TOO
LOW FOR A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
3) THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH DAILY
AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AN UPSTREAM COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT THE MOST INTENSE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY WEST
OF CENTRAL NC.
THE LINE OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST MCS
HAS LARGELY MOVED SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND IS NOW OVER NORTHERN SC
AND FAR SE NC. THERE IS A COOL, STABLE POOL IN ITS WAKE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND PLENTY OF CIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ONLY
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN TRAILS THE INITIAL LINE, AND
THIS WILL ALSO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER MCS IS LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
WITH A LEADING BOWING LINE OF STORMS STRETCHING ACROSS KY, EASTERN
TN AND FAR WESTERN NC. WHILE EARLIER HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WAS MIXED ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM COMPLEX AND WHETHER IT WOULD
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT, BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR, AS WELL AS THE WIDESPREAD
STABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, THE WORST OF IT APPEARS TO PASS TO OUR
WEST OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A GUSTY SHOWER AND PERHAPS
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z
AND 05Z.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MORE EXCESSIVE HEAT IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS IS STILL TOO LOW FOR A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
WITHIN THE COMPLEX FORECAST PATTERN, THERE ARE MANY FAILURE MODES
FOR WED IN TERMS OF DANGEROUS HEAT. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM
UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE MORE PROBABLE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WED AND COULD TEMPER HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES
AND PREVENT REACHING THE THERMODYNAMIC POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH THE LOCATIONS OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMP/DEW POINT FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE
DUSTS SETTLES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK,
WITH DAILY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK, ACCOMPANIED
BY DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID/UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S.
RELIEF ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THURSDAY AND PUSHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, KEEPING HEAT INDICES
PREDOMINANTLY BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S PAIRED WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS (AS HIGH AS
30-50 KTS) AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAS NOW
MOVED SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI), LEAVING
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. FARTHER SOUTH
AT FAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS JUST MOVED THROUGH AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE, BUT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 03-04Z.
VFR AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOSTLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT VERY PATCHY FOG/MIST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL TODAY. THERE
IS ALSO A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NC, BUT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS, THE WORST IS LIKELY TO PASS TO THE WEST OF INT/GSO. STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM THERE FROM 03-06Z.
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE LATEST HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE LOOKS LESS THAN IT WAS TODAY, SO DIDN'T INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LARGELY FROM THE W/NW AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY STILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. MORNING MIST/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH
THE PERIOD, LOCALIZED WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS FROM THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/CA
AVIATION...DANCO/AS
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