292
FXUS62 KRAH 251025
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY, AND A BIT WETTER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
* RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY HAVE TRENDED LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
1) ONE MORE CLOUDY AND FAIRLY COOL DAY TODAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
HIGHEST FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
2) BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE
JULY WEATHER, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ONE MORE CLOUDY AND FAIRLY COOL DAY TODAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED TO OUR S, ACROSS N AL/N
GA, SC, AND FAR SE NC, WITH A WEAK TROUGH JUST W OF THE MOUNTAINS
FROM E TN UP THROUGH E OH, AND NARROW AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SW INTO CENTRAL
NC. THE RESULTING LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE N AND NE WILL ENSURE
ADVECTION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO OUR AREA TODAY, KEEPING LOW LEVEL
STABILITY ELEVATED. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MIDDAY, UP TO 125-
150% OF NORMAL, AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
WNW. THIS COMBO OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN
A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, STARTING EARLY THIS
MORNING AND LASTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. (THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
NOT ZERO BUT LOOK TO BE LOW, GIVEN EXPECTED POOR INSTABILITY, AND
WOULD LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FAR S AND SE AREAS.) THE HIGHER RAIN
COVERAGE SHOULD THEN SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS TO OUR E AND THE
BACKING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY HELPS TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN FROM NW TO SE.
THE SIGNALS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ARE NOT AS PROFOUND FOR TODAY
AS WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT. BUT THE HIGH PW AND DEEP LCL-0C LAYER DO
SUGGEST A CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALLY SOAKING DOWNPOURS, MAINLY FROM
THE TRIANGLE TO THE S AND E, AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED, PARTICULARLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEAKENING CAD REGIME, HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
NE TO LOW 80S SW, 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE JULY WEATHER, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND MOSTLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN AROUND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD HAVE MOVED FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT LOCALLY, AND
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S EVERYWHERE. BY MONDAY, HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEK. TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO GENERALLY BEING DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN. WHILE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED MOST DAYS, THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING, SPC ADDED AREAS FROM NEW JERSEY
DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER IN AN OUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS DISCUSSION IS DUE BEFORE SPC ISSUES
THEIR NEXT UPDATE AROUND 5AM, BUT THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY REMAINS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEREFORE LIMITING
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. AS A FRONTAL ZONE
SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH WITH A COOL FLOW FROM THE NE AND N AND LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON/~17Z.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO FAIRLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES AT ALL SITES, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING FAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TREND TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z, AND INT/GSO MAY BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER
8 KTS, FROM THE NE OR N TODAY, BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM AFTER 21Z THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUN, ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS (MVFR-IFR) ARE
LIKELY TO HOLD UNTIL MID MORNING SUN, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 16Z. AN ISOLATED STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR W LATE SUN (INT/GSO) AND IN THE FAR E LATE MON (FAY/RWI),
BUT OVERALL WE'LL SEE DRIER VFR CONDITIONS. MORE TYPICAL LATE-DAY
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR TUE-WED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 28: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 77/2023
JULY 29: KGSO: 75/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/GREEN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page