609
FXUS62 KRAH 051840
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
239 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S.
AS OPPOSED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHS HAVE BEEN IN THE 80S,
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LESS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE BEEN WELL OVER 2 INCHES, AND WILL
DROP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES, WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE FEWER SYNOPTIC
FEATURES SERVING TO FORCE ANY PRECIPITATION. ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER, AND AFTER A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EACH DAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT OVERALL, LESS PEOPLE WILL BE RECEIVING
RAIN EACH DAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO EVENTUALLY
FILTER INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY IS THE FIRST DAY IN THE FORECAST
WHERE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S, AND MID 90S DON'T
APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST
TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: WIDESPREAD BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. WHILE MOST SITES HAVE SCATTERED AND LIFTED TO LOW VFR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SEVERAL SITES INCLUDING GSO AND RWI ARE STILL
OBSERVING MVFR. VFR SHOULD MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SUB-VFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS. OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT (INCLUDING INT AND GSO).
AS SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES END OVERNIGHT, MORE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z, PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY RAIN FELL
TODAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LIKELIHOOD AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
STRATUS, BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE MOIST GUIDANCE GIVEN WHAT
OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN,
FAVORING A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. PATCHY FOG/MIST CAN'T BE RULED OUT
EITHER, BUT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING THINK IT WILL MOSTLY BE LOW
CEILINGS THAT DETERMINE THE FLIGHT CATEGORY AND NOT THE
VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD MOSTLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 5-8 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH REDUCED COVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...DANCO/CA
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