303
FXUS62 KRAH 142300
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
1) ANOTHER DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH VALUES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HOT AS TWO WEEKS AGO.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ANOTHER DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
BY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH VALUES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HOT AS TWO WEEKS
AGO.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST IN A BRIEF STRING OF DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL RETURN TO THE SURFACE WIND. RIGHT NOW, IT
APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE
STRETCH, WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 DEGREES. HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX > 110 DEGREES) ARE NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX > 105
DEGREES) WILL LIKELY BE MET. WHILE THE HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HIGH AS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, THIS STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCLUDE LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S, WHICH
WILL HAVE A CUMULATIVE EFFECT ON PEOPLE OVER SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
CAUSE ISSUES FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE HEAT-SENSITIVE OR DO NOT HAVE ACCESS
TO AIR CONDITIONING. BEGINNING ON THURSDAY, THE EXPERIMENTAL
HEATRISK WILL HAVE VALUES OF 3 OUT OF 4 ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND
FAYETTEVILLE, EXPANDING TO MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND A
BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO BRING SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH
OF THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME RADIATION FOG
NEAR KFAY AND KRWI EARLY WED MORN. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT (MAINLY 5 KTS OR LESS) WLY WINDS WED
MORN BECOMING SWLY-SSWLY THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME SMOKE
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS APPROACHING FROM THE NNE MAY RESULT IN HAZY
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF BOTH SHOWERS/STORMS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG
AND/OR STRATUS.
CLIMATE
RECORD TEMPERATURES WITHIN 3F OF FORECAST ONES...
RECORD HIGHS:
JULY 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887
JULY 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932
RECORD HIGH MINS:
JULY 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2019
JULY 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025
JULY 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023
JULY 20: KRDU: 76/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...10/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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