649
FXUS62 KRAH 011101
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
701 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* RAINFALL HAS INCREASED FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO START ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING PERIODS OF STRONG STORMS
AND A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO START ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING PERIODS OF
STRONG STORMS AND A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL SETTLE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND ESTABLISH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT A MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PW EXCEEDING 2-2.5 INCHES AREAWIDE
BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THE BETTER DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY BUT LIKELY LINGER OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS, BUT THE PATTERN FAVORS
PERIODIC UPPER DISTURBANCES RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING
IN RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW. INSTABILITY EACH DAY
IS ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION IN THE MOIST AIRMASS, BUT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROMOTE 500-1000 MLCAPE.
THUS, A CONDITIONAL FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUE/WED, PERHAPS GREATEST AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ALSO PRESENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...
LOW-MVFR TO IFR CIGS HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NC INTO THE
TRIAD TERMINALS THIS MORNING. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING
THE ONGOING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WELL SO PREVIOUS TIMING REMAINS
VALID WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE SCATTERING BY
15Z. SHALLOW SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS, BUT OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AVIATION CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE INTO
SUN MORNING.
OUTLOOK: WAVES OF DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY SUN-
MON, BUT WITH LINGERING ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WILL ACCOMPANY THE SLOW APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MID/UPR-
LEVEL TROUGH.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLS
AVIATION...AS/MWS
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