665
FXUS62 KRAH 272345
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WAVERING FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
MONDAY - MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN RISING NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...
THE TEMPERATURE SEESAW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TODAY'S NORMAL HIGH AT RDU IS 53 DEGREES - THE HIGHS THE LAST THREE
DAYS HAVE BEEN 71, 72, AND 59, WITH A FORECAST HIGH BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TODAY. THE ROLLERCOASTER WITH THE TEMPERATURES IS COURTESY
OF A FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE REGION, CURRENTLY
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BUT EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN
DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ONTARIO
AND A RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE
AFTER SUNSET FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
DID NOT CHANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS, ONLY ONE OR TWO DEGREES IN OTHER
LOCATIONS, AND STILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SUNDAY
MORNING, AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES CHICAGO SUNDAY EVENING AND
MOVES OVER LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING. IN-SITU CAD APPEARS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING IN THE
LOWEST MILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BLENDED THE NBM AND THE 25TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, WHICH DROPPED THE HIGH FORECAST FOR SUNDAY UP
TO 5-7 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA/NC
BORDER ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 50S - A 5 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN HIGHS
COMPARED TO TODAY.
WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE WEDGE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE, PUTTING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BACK ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE
EVENING, WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT. THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MORE UNIFORM BY SUNRISE MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM SATURDAY...
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE MON
* COLDER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS ARRIVE FOR MON NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TUE, WHEN DRY CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS MAY BRING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES AROUND MIDWEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY AROUND A
POSSIBLE LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MON COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. HIGHS ON MON ARE LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S IN THE EAST. WHILE THE COLD FRONT OR ITS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY
MOVE THROUGH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR WILL NOT FILTER IN UNTIL MON NIGHT, WHEN COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT, WITH SOME AREAS STAYING DRY AND
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH
MON NIGHT TO TUE MORNING IN THE 20S, WITH WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, SO IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM OUR WARM
HOLIDAY STRETCH.
TUE LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK SO FAR, WITH LOW TO MID
40S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR LOWS. HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE WED
AS WSW WINDS TAKE OVER BUT WE ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE STILL WARRANTED TUE AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WED AS WNW TO WSW SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND RH LEVELS WELL
INTO THE 20S WITH WEAK MOISTURE RETURN.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED, UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. ENSEMBLE DATA DIFFERS
IN REGARDS TO A LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT PERHAPS LATE THU TO EARLY FRI,
AS WELL AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING RAIN ON SAT.
SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS
BRING IS WELL INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR NOW, A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, COOLER ON FRI, WITH LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES SAT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO START MOVING INTO THE TRIAD
WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR THROUGH THE DAY IN THE TRIAD. WITH
THE LOWERED CEILINGS, LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE/MIST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE LOWERED VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW ON WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY TAKE PLACE.
ELSEWHERE, MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING EAST, REACHING
RDU/FAY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, AND RWI BY SUNDAY EVENING.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, LLWS FROM A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY
IMPACT CENTRAL NC, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE JET SHOULD STAY TOO
WEAK UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 00Z, SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: AFTER 00Z MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
WITH EXPANDING IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND STRENGTHENING LLWS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IMPACTING THE 4
NORTHERN TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING (GUSTS 15-25 KTS), THEN
VEERING TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY
MON AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...LH/CA
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