459
FXUS62 KRAH 251020
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
620 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE INCREASING FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
1) THIS MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS STRETCH WITH
ONE LAST DAY OF DRY WEATHER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEFORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK.
2) DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED CONVECTION RETURNS TO CENTRAL NC AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THIS MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS
STRETCH WITH ONE LAST DAY OF DRY WEATHER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
BEFORE HUMID WEATHER RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK.
THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A MODEST SURGE OF DRIER AIR AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT,
MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES THIS MORNING AT 12Z WILL BE ABOUT
10M COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER
70S, HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, MAINLY ACROSS SAMPSON,
WAYNE AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES. THIS FOG SHOULD BE ERODED FROM THE
WEST BY THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR EARLY THIS MORNING AND IF
STILL PRESENT, IT SHOULD BE BURNED OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECT TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLOUDS FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS. NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS NEAR IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
AVERAGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF GUST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
MORNING AS THE SURFACE INVERSION BREAKS AND THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
JET MIXES TO THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED CONVECTION RETURNS TO CENTRAL
NC AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS ON WED BEFORE GRADUALLY SHARPENING WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS A
PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAROUSEL ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THURS NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE, PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WED
MORNING, IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY WED AFTERNOON AND RETURN
INITIALLY EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE CAROLINAS WED.
INITIALLY, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW WITH 70S DEW POINTS
IN THE MORNING MIXING OUT INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WED, BUT LIKELY ORGANIZED AROUND
THE INLAND SPREADING SEABREEZE AND THE NC MOUNTAINS, WHERE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS COULD PROVIDE SURFACE FORCING WITHIN
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WED NIGHT INTO FRI: CONTINUED SHARPENING OF THE SLOW-MOVING TROUGH
AXIS TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
NEAR-NORMAL VALUES, BUT INCREASINGLY PERTURBED FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. THIS WILL FAVOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF ANY DISTURBANCE.
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST CHALLENGE AND WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER, A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THIS WINDOW WITH THE SLOW-MOVING AND SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE EAST, PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND
SATURATED AND PERTURBED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. AS A RESULT,
EXCESSIVE RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE THURS AND PERHAPS MORE PROBABLE ON
FRI AS LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING FRONT AND ENHANCED
AND STATIONARY MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
THE CAROLINAS.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAVE
DISSIPATED AS DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE REGION. AT 10Z THERE WERE
NO OBSERVATIONS OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 7 MILES.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
CLOUDS AT 5 TO 8KFT, MAINLY TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AT 4 TO TO 8KTS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING AS
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WILL BE THE GREATEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, THE
RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES/SWIGGETT
AVIATION...BLAES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page