659
FXUS62 KRAH 221048
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED, BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-END CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
1) THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
2) HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104F, MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. HOT WEATHER POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY, WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEND DEW POINTS INTO THE MID-60S IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND NEAR 70 FURTHER EAST, RESULTING IN MODEST
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE THE BELT OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, 20-25 KNOTS OF SFC-500MB
BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OR THE
LEE TROUGH, PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TRIAD AND POTENTIALLY
THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT FROM 4-8 PM THIS EVENING. HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VARIATION IN STORM COVERAGE; HOWEVER,
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE MERGING OF COLD POOLS AND A
STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN A
SLIGHT RISK, WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTH.
AN OVERNIGHT LULL SHOULD GIVE WAY TO RENEWED CONVECTION AS THE COLD
FRONT AND A POTENTIAL MCV RESULTING FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION (NOTED
MOST AGGRESSIVELY IN THE HRRR) CROSS THE AREA. WITH A HIGHLY FOCUSED
AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCV, INDUCED PRESSURE FALLS, BACKING
WINDS, AND HIGH PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE CONTENT, A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THREAT MAY EMERGE LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS THREAT IS PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BASED ON THE FORECAST
TRACK OF THE MCV. THIS REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS IT IS
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO TODAY’S UPSTREAM CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS,
WHICH MAY NOT POSE AS MUCH OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SINKS SOUTH.
QPF ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY RANGES FROM A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN
THE FAR SE. HOWEVER, HREF LPMM INDICATES ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
OF 1-2 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS, WITH SOME RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE TRIAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100-104F, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. HOT WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, MOSTLY FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK DOES REACH THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL
3 OF 4) IN SPOTS AROUND THE TRIANGLE DOWN TO THE SANDHILLS AND S
COASTAL PLAIN, INDICATING ATYPICALLY HIGH HEAT THAT COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST, WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE CPC 6-10 OUTLOOK.
MODELS TEND TO VARY ON WHETHER THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTER NEAR THE MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION TO FURTHER EAST AND CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, WHICH WILL STRONGLY INFLUENCE WHETHER WE END UP ON THE
WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...
PATCHY IFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING FROM MEB TO JNX AND EASTWARD
WHILE SLOWLY EXPANDING TO THE NORTH. THESE CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT FAY/RWI AND PERHAPS RDU THROUGH AROUND 15Z AS THEY LIFT AND
SCATTERING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, INCLUDING LIKELY INTO
THE INT/GSO VICINITY BY AROUND 21-22Z. A FEW MAY REACH RDU OR RWI
AROUND 00Z, BEFORE GENERALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT
THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY.
OUTLOOK: A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY
REDEVELOPING ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM RDU TO RWI. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
UNTIL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE YIELDS A CHANCE OF MORNING STRATUS AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022
JUNE 25: KRDU: 100/1952
JUNE 26: KFAY: 101/1951
JUNE 27: KFAY: 102/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024
JUNE 25: KFAY: 75/1952
JUNE 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 76/1997
JUNE 27: KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLS
AVIATION...BLS/MWS
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