548
FXUS62 KRAH 252346
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
* RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...
1) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST TODAY. FAIRLY LOW RH AND
ONGOING DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NC TODAY.
2) HIGH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN PERSIST FOR LATER THROUGH
SUN MORNING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED A BIT FROM THIS
MORNING.
3) ACTIVE PERIOD OF INCREASED FREQUENCY OF RAIN EVENTS
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST TODAY. FAIRLY LOW RH AND
ONGOING DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
SOUTH- CENTRAL NC TODAY.
WARM AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TODAY, YIELDING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THAT REMAIN AROUND 25 M
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90, ALTHOUGH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE W CWA WILL
LOWER INSOLATION A BIT THERE DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
DESPITE THIS EARLY SEASON HEAT, OUR RECORDS SHOULD NOT BE
THREATENED (RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE 93 AT RDU AND 94 AT FAY, BOTH
SET IN 1925). HEAT RISK TIED TO THESE HIGH TEMPS REMAINS A
LEVEL 2-OF-4/MODERATE TODAY.
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING SPANNING TO OUR S, WE'LL CONTINUE
TO LACK A TAP OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY,
RESULTING IN MIN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. THESE VALUES, ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPS, WILL
RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE 25-35% RANGE ACROSS THE S, AND IN
COMBINATION WITH VERY DRY FINE FUELS AND INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
15-20 MPH TODAY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER OUR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TODAY. A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN PERSIST FOR LATER THROUGH SUN
MORNING, THOUGH AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED A BIT FROM THIS MORNING.
ALOFT, SOME S/W ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING, HELPING FURTHER SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD.
ANOTHER S/W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, AS OF 17Z, THE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NW PA, WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED SSWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX,
AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED SSEWD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TO OFF THE NC COAST. A REMNANT MCV OVER NRN GA LIFTING
NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERACTING WITH THE S/W ALOFT
HAS ALREADY STARTED PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE MTNS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE AS THE WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND THE
SURFACE LOW DROPS SEWD ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH FORECAST
(NAM) MUCAPE OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG AND 6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30
KTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND OFFSHORE, THEN
FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN MORN AS THE LOW LIFTS
NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA MID-DAY SUN, BUT IT IS ALL A MATTER OF
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF BOTH FEATURES WHERE THAT CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SUN WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS OF NC OVER A
LIMITED WINDOW OF TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THESE
FEATURES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SPREAD IN HIGHS FROM NE TO
SW. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
SHIFTING EWD AND WEAKENING MON/MON NIGHT. FOR NOW, HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW 80S SW ON SUN, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MON AND TUE.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY HALF AN
INCH OR LESS, THOUGH A COUPLE SPOTS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE. NOT
A DROUGHT- BUSTING RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS, BUT ANY RAIN IS
WELCOME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF INCREASED FREQUENCY OF RAIN EVENTS CONTINUES
INTO EARLY MAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN FOR TUES AS MODELS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE AHEAD OF PERTURBED
FLOW AND NARROW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAT SPREADS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUES. THIS INITIAL WAVE DOES HOWEVER WORK TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME AND NEAR-
NORMAL PWAT VALUES.
THE FORECAST FOR WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TUES EVENING
NEGATIVELY TILTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WED MORNING. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE
NOSE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL SUPPLY DEEP
LIFT WITHIN A PLUME OF RICHER PWAT OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
REASONABLE LOW-END AMOUNTS SHOW AT LEAST MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5". IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID/UPPER-LVL MOISTURE BAND, CONTINUED MOIST AND WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS; ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON SEVERAL CONDITIONS TO BE MET.
THERE MAY BE SOME HOPE FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY MAY. THERE IS A
SIGNAL WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SPREADING
MORE STEADY RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS TRACK. MEMBER MSLP
TRACKS RANGE FROM THE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE
CAROLINAS, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...
AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ARE ONLY PRODUCING VFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS. SOME STRONGER CELLS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL APPROACH RWI IN CONNECTION WITH THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW AND A SEA-BREEZE. THIS WILL RISK THE CHANCE OF STORMS UP
UNTIL 02-03Z, AFTER WHICH STABILIZATION WILL LARGELY PROHIBIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FAY AND
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH EARLY SUN WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO
PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CEILINGS. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS SLOWED THE ONSET
OF THESE SUB-VFR CEILINGS GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN SATURATION
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, EARLIER ONSET CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY AT RDU, RWI, AND FAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUN
AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN THE EAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT BETWEEN 16-
18Z IN THE WEST AND 20-22Z AT RDU/FAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE AT RWI POST-FRONTAL THROUGH 00Z MON IN A PERSISTENT MOIST
NE FLOW.
OUTLOOK: SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER SUN NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST NEAR FAY/RWI AND BRIEFLY RDU. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH MON. A DECAYING STORM COMPLEX COULD BRING BRIEF
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT GSO/INT TUE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WED INTO THU, WHICH MAY ALSO BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/10/AS
AVIATION...KREN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page