449
FXUS62 KRAH 262350
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON THURSDAY. A DRIER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALBEIT A
SLIGHTLY LOWER THREAT THAN YESTERDAY. WE REMAIN IN A HIGH-PW
ENVIRONMENT (VALUES 150-180% OF NORMAL STREAMING N/NE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE-CENTERED MID LEVEL RIDGE), WITH A DEEP
WARM LAYER (LCL-TO-0C HEIGHT OF 3.6-3.9 KM). FASTER SSW 850 MB FLOW
IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LOWER MBE MOTION AND MODEST MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS, AMIDST WIDESPREAD MODERATE SKINNY SBCAPE. ALL
OF THIS SUPPORTS MAINTENANCE OF HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS CAPABLE OF FAIRLY HIGH RAIN RATES, WITH 0.5-
1.0"/HOUR COMMON, AND SOME AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING CELLS COULD SEE 1-
2" RATES AND 2-3" STORM TOTALS. THE EARLIER HI-RES MODEL RUNS FROM
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DIDN'T DO TOO WELL IN PINPOINTING THE
LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT THERE NOW, BUT THE 12Z HREF
LPMM HAS CAUGHT UP SOMEWHAT IN SHOWING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
FAR NE AND IN THE SW HALF, WITH A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF 1" IN 3 HRS
OVER THE S AND SE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND JUST NW OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING, WITH CHANCES LOWER AT 30-50% IN BETWEEN. WE'RE STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK/SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
MCVS RIDING N/NNE FROM THE E GULF COAST TO HELP ADD DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT, ALTHOUGH WE'RE FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN ON MON. NEVERTHELESS,
WITH THE RATES WE'RE SEEING SO FAR, A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT SAW AN INCH OR MORE MON.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY WED, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER NC IN RESPONSE TO
A DIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE N GREAT LAKES/ST LAWRENCE, ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF LOW-
TO-MID-LEVEL FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY OVER NC AND A REDUCTION IN PW AS
THE HIGHER/DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR S. SO WHILE THERE WILL
STILL BE ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS, THE
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY. A DRIER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
ALSO DROP A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION, ONE ON
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES ON THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD REIGNITE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT WE
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY, PW VALUES WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS (AROUND 100-125% OF NORMAL). SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOWER AS WELL, MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND FOCUSED
MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE.
THUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LESS OF A CONCERN. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO LIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT EVEN HERE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW IS ABLE
TO GET, AND THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE TO OUR
SOUTH. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL DROP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
NC ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY PUT AN END TO OUR
RAIN CHANCES, WITH MUCH DRIER WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT AS WE REMAIN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EACH DAY WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE TROUGH.
WE WILL HAVE ONE LAST WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER-80S TO 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-60S.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN TURN MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S AND DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 50S.
WE THEN TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL FROM SATURDAY TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER-80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 750 PM MONDAY...
THE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED TO LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. THEREFORE, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
05Z-07Z BEFORE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS. LOW STRATUS (IFR) CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WEDNESDAY, BUT THE CHANCES
WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS A DRIER WNW FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z THURSDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE
WEEK WITH THE DRIER NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
POSSIBLY TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN NC.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004
MAY 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006
MAY 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/DANCO
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLIMATE...RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page