381
FXUS62 KRAH 230644
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
244 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SWODY1 NOW HAS AREAS EAST OF THE TRIANGLE IN A SLIGHT RISK ALONG
WITH MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AND THE EASTERN TRIAD
REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 244 AM TUESDAY...
1) MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...WITH MARGINAL
EAST OF THE TRIAD AND SLIGHT EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.
2) EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 244 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...WITH MARGINAL EAST OF THE TRIAD AND SLIGHT EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE.
A WEAKENING MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TN WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS, A REMNANT CONVECTIVE LINE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
SURVIVE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND ENTER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SPECIFICALLY REGARDING TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY: THE TRIAD REGION SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS ROUGHLY LATE THIS
MORNING... EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE TRIANGLE REGION AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT...AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER. THAT CAPE, ALONG WITH 40KT OF MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHICH
MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD.
OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE TOWARD EASTERN NC AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY.
A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
CAROLINAS FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL NC WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FORECAST HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-90S AND BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WE
ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-70S. THIS IS RESULTING IN 50-85%
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST MAJOR HEATRISK FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVERYWHERE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TRY
TO APPROACH FROM THE NE, BUT OTHERWISE THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. THE
ONE SAVING GRACE IS HUMIDITY DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY OPPRESSIVE DURING
THE PERIOD, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-60S. STILL, HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND
EAST ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY, AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 244 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
NC OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST FROM EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING AND INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES
NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KINT/KGSO LATE THIS MORNING
OR AROUND MIDDAY, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH KRDU DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 20-35 KT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU. A RETURN TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IS FAVORED FRI-SAT WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM,
AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022
JUNE 25: KRDU: 100/1952
JUNE 26: KFAY: 101/1951
JUNE 27: KFAY: 102/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024
JUNE 25: KFAY: 75/1952
JUNE 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 76/1997
JUNE 27: KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/MWS
AVIATION...NP
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