239
FXUS62 KRAH 311818
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY, ALONG WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF RALEIGH.
2) COOLER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE RISING BACK TO THE 90S BY THIS
WEEKEND. DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY, PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF RALEIGH.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON SATURDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND WILL LIFT NORTH BACK INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP TO REGENERATE SHOWERS THAT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO EXPAND NORTH ON MONDAY. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S SCENARIO, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY REACH ITS MAXIMUM COVERAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF RALEIGH, AND THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT COULD EVEN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH APPROACHING SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS NOT INCLUDED IN A THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER WIND
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE COLLOCATED. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH A SHOWER COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 ... COOLER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE RISING BACK TO THE
90S BY THIS WEEKEND. DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
POST-FRONTAL COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER NELY SFC
FLOW. A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. WNWLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH PWAT
DROPPING TO ~35 TO 50% OF NORMAL WILL PROMOTE MIXING OUT OF THE SFC
DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, IT SHOULD
BE OVERALL A PLEASANT DAY.
NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A DEEP
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO CANADA SLOWLY OOZES EASTWARD. THIS WILL
PROMOTE COOLER TEMPS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY (HIGHS AROUND 80 OR SO) WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIXING OUT AGAIN INTO THE 40S. BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND
PROMOTE SLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND, PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL
NC INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT, BUT SOME
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WHICH COULD INDUCE
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...
TAF PERIOD: MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY TAF THAT CURRENTLY HAS MVFR CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST IS
FAY, ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT FOR VFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OTHER TERMINALS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR
CEILINGS DO MAKE IT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, WITH A
VCSH MENTION ADDED TO THE RDU, FAY, AND RWI TAFS. THE WIND SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 10 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH INT/GSO ALREADY HAVING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHILE THE OTHER SITES SHOULD HAVE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT REACH THEIR LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL VEER THE WIND AT INT/GSO AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MONDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH AT RDU, RWI, AND
FAY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL REACH ITS
PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY AT RWI
IN A FUTURE TAF PACKAGE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL
SITES. ALL SITES SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VFR AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT, CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES
OF RESTRICTIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 KT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/LUCHETTI
AVIATION...GREEN
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