196
FXUS62 KRAH 261026
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER
MOST GUIDANCE, GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW CLEARING OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY.
* SHOWER/STORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
1) AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE FAR SW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, AND OVER THE
NE TONIGHT.
2) A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE FAR SW THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, AND OVER THE NE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING, MOSTLY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PIEDMONT INTO THE N SANDHILLS, SOME OF IT LOCALLY DENSE.
GIVEN THE NEARLY CALM AIR AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW
LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING (VIA OBS AND 00Z REGIONAL 925 MB
ANALYSIS), WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, AS SUPPORTED BY GLAMP GUIDANCE AND MOST
HREF/REFS MEMBERS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD TODAY FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FT AGL TODAY, DIURNAL MIXING
WILL BE HAMPERED, LEADING TO A SLOW LIFTING AND BREAKUP OF LOW
CLOUDS AND DELAYED HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN JUST UNDER NBM AND
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS JUST S AND SW OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST ANALYSIS, FROM W NC ACROSS NE SC, WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE CLT AREA, JUST SW OF OUR CWA. AS
THIS FRONT WAVERS TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT/CAPE GRADIENT, ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
EDGE INTO OUR FAR W AND SW CWA, FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY TRACKS
FROM THE OH VALLEY SE THROUGH W AND S NC, INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH BASE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM MI THIS
MORNING SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE
SECTIONS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DEGREE
OF DESTABILIZATION WITH BOTH POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIMITATIONS IN SURFACE HEATING, ALONG WITH THE LOWER PW AS COMPARED
TO PAST DAYS. BUT OUR MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
CYCLONIC LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, SO AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IN OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW WILL SPEND THE
NEXT TWO DAYS MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
THAT'S CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. BY LATE TUESDAY IT
WILL DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE L/W TROUGH THAT'S JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. IN DOING SO, IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, DEEPENING THE L/W TROUGH AND
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, LOW LEVEL S TO SW PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL
ADVECT A WARMER, MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, WITH THE APPROACH OF THE S/W, LOOK FOR MID AND UPPER
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE NW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PRE-EXISTING
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE PRIOR DAY WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TUE MORNING, WITH NEW CELLS FORMING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SO LOOK FOR THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY OF THE TALLER LONGER
LASTING TSTM CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
GIVEN THE PREFRONTAL WARMING AIRMASS, HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-MID
90S. THE SHOWERS/TSTMS, THEN COLD FRONT, ARE ALL EXPECTED TO EXIT
CENTRAL NC TO OUR EAST BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH MID MORNING, PARTICULARLY
AFFECTING RDU AND GSO. AT OTHER SITES, THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MORE
PATCHY, RESULTING IN WIDE INTRAHOUR VARIABILITY IN FLIGHT RULES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VSBYS AT ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR 13Z-15Z, AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO MVFR THEN VFR
BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z AS CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BREAK UP. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR INT/GSO BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z, WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDER. RDU/RWI/FAY WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT, AFTER 03Z, WITH A SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 05Z. SURFACE WINDS AT ALL
SITES WILL REMAIN LIGHT, UNDER 8 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MON, AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
LAST UNTIL AROUND 13Z-14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE E (RDU/RWI/FAY) MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, THEN A
HIGHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS (SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE) IS EXPECTED TUE, MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 29: KGSO: 75/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH
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