050
FXUS62 KRAH 070738
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS MORE APPARENT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...
1) WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING THIS
EVENING PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND ENDING THIS EVENING PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS
MOVED INTO COASTAL NC AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.
THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SIMULATED WELL BY MANY OF
THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY 200% OF NORMAL. THE
AIRMASS IS GENERALLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
REMARKABLE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME DECENT RAIN
RATES. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST WITH RATHER EXTENSIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD. A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHIFTS EAST AND THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS INTO A LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY NATURE. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN PROVING A POTENTIAL WINDOW FOR
ENOUGH DESTABLIZATION TO COMBINE WITH 50 TO 60 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER RISK AND THE SPC
HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO AREAS WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM A
DAMAGING WIND GUST FROM 12 TO 6PM. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION OVER BY MID EVENING.
THIS EVENT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA. GIVEN
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AND
VARIED RAIN DURATIONS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL VARY A GOOD DEAL.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH, WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A HALF
INCHES. THE MOST RECENT HREF SHOWS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
EXTENDED FROM CHARLOTTE ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AREA TOWARD ROANOKE
RAPIDS WITH POCKETS OF RAIN IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED SHOWERS MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRANSIENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, SLIDING EAST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ACROSS THE
NORTH AS WELL AS THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE DEEPEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE PRIMARY FORCING AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND EAST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTH AND THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING PWS SURGING TO NEARLY 1.25”
(WELL ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN), RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EXITS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY: MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING HAVE
BEGUN TO DETERIORATE WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THAT SPREAD
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
IS EXITING THE AREA CURRENTLY. ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED STORM WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY HOURS. THE FRONT WONT MOVE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALLOWING THESE LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN A GREATER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS UP TO 35KTS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE TRIAD
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE STUBBORN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WHERE MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL
LLWS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE ALSO BE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/BLAES
AVIATION...BLAES
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