429
FXUS62 KRAH 061048
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
648 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
* INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF
DRY SPELL BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
A LARGE GYRE OVER THE HUDSON BAY TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST AND DIRECT A DEEP FETCH OF
UNSEASONABLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THURS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND
CONVECTIVE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ARE
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
TO BRING PERIODS OF INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
AREA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL COME FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHWEST TN WHICH WILL OUTPACE THE NORTHEAST ADVECTION OF
RICHER LOW-LVL THETA-E AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS MORNING. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
STABLE DURING THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA OF
DECAYING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF WED WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY GIVEN A
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN UPSTREAM CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AS CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS/DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN TN
VALLEY AND ADVECTS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS.
WAVES OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DIRECTED ACROSS THE CAROLINA WED EVENING INTO THURS MORNING
AHEAD OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY ANY GRAVITY WAVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS
TIME, WHICH CAN RAPIDLY ERODE PRECIP GENERATION IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN. BY THURS MORNING, THE COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENTICAL
FORCING AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THURS
EVENING. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE FROPA IS RESULTING IN
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THURS AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL BE NEEDED TO REALIZE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONG AND
INCREASING SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT CONDITIONAL ON DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
FIRST.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THURS EVENING LOOKS TO BRING MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA WITH THE REASONABLE LOW-END FROM THE
HREF STILL PRODUCING A SWATH OF 0.75 TO 1" SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER, THE EXPERIMENTAL REFS PAINTS A TROUBLING
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WITH REASONABLE LOW-END AMOUNTS CLOSER 0.25
TO 0.5". WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GRAVITY WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND
MORE QUICKLY ERODING SHIELDS OF PRECIPITATION, THIS SCENARIO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF DRY
SPELL BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRANSIENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, SLIDING EAST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, RESULTING IN A 30-40%
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DEEPEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE PRIMARY FORCING AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE COAST, FOCUSING ALL REMAINING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS PWS SURGE TO NEARLY 1.25 (WELL ABOVE THE
DAILY MEAN), THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES OVER THE
REGION. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURS.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BETWEEN 11-15Z, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WAVES AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND CONTINUE INTO THURS. SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THROUGH THE 06Z THURS, WITH IFR/LIFR MORE
PROBABLE BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT CNTL NC, AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SURROUNDING
BAND OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL SAG SWD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THU. A FAVORABLE PATTERN MAY EXIST FOR FOG/LOW-STRATUS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM SUN-MON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/CA
AVIATION...AS
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