127
FXUS62 KRAH 101757
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
157 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
1) HOT TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
LIMITED COOLING THIS WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURE RETURN NEXT WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN (FLASH FLOODING).
DISCUSSION
AS OF 157 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH LIMITED COOLING THIS WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURE RETURN
NEXT WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER RIDGE
POSITIONED OFF THE SC COAST, WITH A SIMILARLY STRONG (594DM) RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. IN BETWEEN, A WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED
FROM MI TO MO WHICH WAS SLOWLY DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS NC, TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TRIANGLE.
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO APPROACH THE AREA, KEEPING NC WITHIN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH FRIDAY. AS SUCH, INCREASED HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. DEEP BL MIXING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OBS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THOSE WHO
ARE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY, IT'LL WASH OUT AND/OR
RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES
AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS NC NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN (FLASH FLOODING).
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT, THEN WASHING OUT, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WITH THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED IN NATURE. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING NATURE OF ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, AND
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC REMAINS WITHIN A WPC MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A FEW HREF LPMM BULLSEYES OF MORE THAN 2" ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH I WOULD
ANTICIPATE MORE AREAL COVERAGE AND LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL
ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE DECAYING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND LESS ORGANIZED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 157 PM THURSDAY...
MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTH. GUSTS LOOK LIKE THEY
SHOULD ONLY REACH UP TO 20 KTS. TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS AS IT LOOKS LIKE AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING, BUT MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
TOWARDS A GREATER PROBABILITY, SO ADDED A TEMPO AT FAY, WITH
RESTRICTIONS BEING POSSIBLE AT RWI AS WELL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION, HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS LOOKS TO BE AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND CAUSE SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HELOCK
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