192
FXUS62 KRAH 221110
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
610 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 204 AM SUNDAY...
* SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW,
MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 204 AM SUNDAY...
1) TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE SECOND
WAVE FAVORING A BRIEF PERIOD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NE. GUSTY
WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE AS TEMPERATURES CRASH
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
2) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE AS THE
WORK WEEK STARTS OUT BELOW NORMAL.
3) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY, UNTIL A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEK LOOKS TO DROP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 204 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
WITH THE SECOND WAVE FAVORING A BRIEF PERIOD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE FAR NE. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE AS
TEMPERATURES CRASH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
OVERVIEW: A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO BRING A
PLETHORA OF WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS, A RETURN TO WINTER, AS WELL AS ENDING AS
A LITTLE SNOW IN SOME SPOTS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY OVER THE
MS TO OH VALLEY REGION WILL INTENSIFY AS IT DIGS INTO SE VA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM JUST OFF THE NC COAST NEAR THE OUTER BANKS EARLY TODAY AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO SUB 970-MB OFF THE COAST OF NJ MON MORNING.
PRECIPITATION: EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTED
WAVES OF RAINFALL. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS JUST STARTING TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LIFT
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABOVE-
NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL LAST UNTIL ABOUT EARLY
TO MID-MORNING, EARLIEST TO END OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
SLOWEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN
LATE THIS MORNING, WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST, WHERE EVEN A FEW PEEKS OF SUN COULD BREAK OUT NEAR
THE TRIAD AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE EVENING, ROUGHLY 1 PM TO 10
PM, AS THE UPPER-LOW DIGS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND DPVA RAPIDLY
INCREASES. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE CAA UP TO MID-LEVELS WILL FUEL DEEP LIFT FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WRAP-AROUND PRECIP BAND WILL
FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW (SEE SNOW SECTION BELOW), MAINLY IN THE
5 PM TO 10 PM PERIOD. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED
MUCH. THE 00Z HREF AGREES WELL WITH PRIOR ESTIMATES, RANGING FROM A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
TO NEAR 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
SNOW: AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND STRONG CAA BUILDS IN
FROM THE WNW, TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH FROM THE MIDDLE 40S LATE TODAY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 20S.
THIS WILL FEEL QUITE COLD COMPARED TO THE RECENT MILD STRETCH. AS
THIS COLD AIR BUILDS IN, THERE WILL BE A NARROW 3 TO 5 HR WINDOW (5
PM TO 10 PM) WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE AND TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, ROUGHLY FROM RALEIGH TO ROXBORO AND WILSON TO
ROANOKE RAPIDS. THIS IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED
TO THE PRIOR FORECAST, WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW
RANGES FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT IN NE SECTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE, TO 50-80
PERCENT IN THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WITHIN
THE 3 TO 5 HR WINDOW, THERE IS A 1-3 HR WINDOW (6-9 PM) WHEN LIFT
WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE DGZ AND WHEN WET-BULB TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW
30S, FOR MAINLY THE NE PIEDMONT TO NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, FROM
ROXBORO TO HENDERSON TO NORLINA TO ROANOKE RAPIDS TO ENFIELD, OR
GRANVILLE, VANCE, WARREN, AND HALIFAX COUNTIES. IN THESE AREAS, THE
PROBABILITY OF A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS ROUGHLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AN INCH OF SNOW TO 20-30
PERCENT VIA THE HREF. IN SUMMARY, CURRENT SNOW ESTIMATES POINT TO A
DUSTING AROUND THE TRIANGLE, TO NEAR A HALF INCH ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES AND NEAR THE VA BORDER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
WORSE-CASE SCENARIO OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF THESE
AREAS, BUT CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY WAS TOO LOW AT THIS
STAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS, GIVEN
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, WOULD BE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES,
SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
WINDS: THE STRONG CAA COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND
STRONG WINDS OF 30-45 KT IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF BRISK/GUSTY WINDS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WEST AND EARLY TO MID-EVENING IN THE EAST. GUSTS FROM THE WNW
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 30-45 MPH, WITH SOME INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT,
BUT STAY ELEVATED IN THE 15-30 MPH RANGE INTO EARLY MON. CONFIDENCE
TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. AS TO FIRE CONCERNS, WET GROUND FROM
EXPECTED RAIN AND COLDER TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT FIRE DANGER, BUT IF RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST, COULD SEE A LOW-END IFD
CRITERIA BEING MET THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE AS THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT BELOW NORMAL.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE WITH THE STRONG LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND 1038-MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS RANGE FROM
25-30 KT, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COLD FEEL TO
START THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME UPPER TEENS FOR WIND CHILLS MON
MORNING. THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE HIGHS STARTING OUT 10-14 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES COLDEST MON NIGHT
INTO TUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 3... TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY, UNTIL A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEK LOOKS TO DROP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY INTO THE
60S EVERYWHERE. THIS IS UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW OVERALL LOW
RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE GEFS SHOWING LESS
THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE REGION AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
SHOWING BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCH OF RAIN. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS WEAKENED
AND MOVED EAST OF RWI. IN ITS WAKE, CIGS VARY WIDELY FROM LIFR TO
MVFR AND MOSTLY VFR RAIN WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VSBY. GIVEN THE LOW
PREDICTABILITY NATURE OF THESE POCKETS OF SCATTERED LIFR/IFR, THE
12Z TAFS WILL BE MORE ON THE PESSIMISTIC END OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH
15Z WHEN STEADIER RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING MIXED LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL
BLOSSOM OVER THE AREA AND PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PERHAPS CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT RWI FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY PERIODICALLY DROP OFF
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY STRONG OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE THE
CONTINUATION OF GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NW WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 25-35 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL RAIN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON THURS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/HELOCK
AVIATION...AS/BADGETT
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