119
FXUS62 KRAH 201046
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MODELS ADVERTISE A LARGE AND SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOL AIR TO OUR REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
1) SEASONABLE AND DRY FALL WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
INTO THURSDAY. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AGAIN BY LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH DRYNESS LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SEASONABLE AND DRY FALL WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC INTO THURSDAY. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DRYNESS LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINED CIRCULATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LINGER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE WEEKEND REINFORCING THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY 68-74. LOW IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50.
THEN, FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE RISK OF PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN US AND MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS AND NELY SURFACE WINDS IN CNTL NC THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD AND BEYOND FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THOSE NELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AROUND 14-15Z TUE MAINLY AT ERN SITES, WHERE THE MSL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN THE CANADIAN HIGH AND COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST. A RISK OF MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO EXIST TONIGHT-TUE MORNING, MAINLY AT RWI AND POSSIBLY
KRDU, WHERE A NELY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND 35-40 KTS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...MWS/BADGETT
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