627
FXUS62 KRAH 131749
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 149 PM SUNDAY...
1) DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE COOLER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 149 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DRY WEATHER AND A LITTLE COOLER THIS WEEK.
A WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC ATTM,
BUT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR NW BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS CENTRAL NC
TOMORROW, FIRST A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED
BY THE ACTUAL AIRMASS CHANGE LATER IN THE EVENING OR MONDAY NIGHT.
SO WE'LL STILL HAVE ONE MORE HOT DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
BEFORE THE AIRMASS CHANGES. WHILE A FEW MODELS SUGGEST A FEW ISOLD
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT, THE BULK OF THE NWP GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS <15%, SO FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THEREAFTER,
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE LATE-
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS, BUT THE PATTERN AT THAT TIME STILL
SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION, SO PERHAPS ANY CHANCES FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE BELOW CLIMO.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 149 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE 24 TAF PERIOD. THIS
AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3000 FT COULD HAVE
POCKETS OF BROKEN CEILINGS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE EAST (INT/GSO) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE VEERING TO
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP
AVIATION...LH
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