018
FXUS62 KRAH 052212
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
612 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS A TAD LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
1) HOT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
2) DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER HEAT WAVE
POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS
RIDGING WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES APPROACHING 1420-1430 M, WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE. HIGHS INTO SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S IN MOST PLACES, WITH SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC.
A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HIGHEST HEAT READINGS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW/MID 90S MON AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUE AS
SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DOWN FROM DELMARVA.
HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF IN THE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD,
WE SHOULD SEE HOT CONDITIONS RETURN AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF.
AT THIS SAME TIME, IT DOES APPEAR HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY ADDITIONALLY
INCREASE, PERHAPS WELL INTO THE 60S. IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, WE WILL
SEE THE COMBINATION OF NOT ONLY HEAT BUT HUMIDITY. HIGHS WED ONWARD
ARE FAVORED TO AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH THICKNESSES
APPROACHING 1430-1440 M.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS OVERALL NOT
CONDUCIVE TO MEANINGFUL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THAT, THERE IS
A LOW-END THREAT OF SOME LATE-DAY OR EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED IN
THAT MOST OF US WILL STAY DRY. AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA
MON NEAR THE SC BORDER, STORM CHANCES WILL FOCUS MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS, BUT AGAIN COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE HARD TO COME BY, OUTSIDE OF ANY MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM. THE GFS/GEFS APPEAR WETTER, IN PART DUE TO MORE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THAT, OUR
STORM CHANCES MAY COME IN RELATION TO A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
FOCUSED ALONG SUBTLE BOUNDARIES. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS RATHER LIMITED, WITH WPC INDICATING A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT MOST.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 612 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER (AT OR ABOVE 25KFT) WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CNTL NC WITH BOTH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL, MVFR CEILINGS
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 7:
KGSO: 98/1925
KRDU: 100/2008
KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 8:
KRDU: 101/2008
KFAY: 101/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 7:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 74/2008
KFAY: 75/2008
JUNE 8:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 75/1899
KFAY: 74/2008
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...LEINS/CA
CLIMATE..RAH
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