025  
FXUS62 KRAH 141120  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
720 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY, WHILE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS. A DRY, BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE  
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT  
WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...  
 
THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION, NOW EVIDENT OVER ERN  
PA IN GOES-E WV DATA, WILL DIG SEWD AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE  
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A CLOSED  
MID/UPR-LEVEL LOW CYCLONE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE  
DELMARVA. UPSTREAM, A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH CENTERED AT 591 DAM AT 500  
MB OVER ERN TX WILL STRENGTHEN ANOTHER FEW DECAMETERS AND PROBABLY  
SHATTER DAILY RECORD 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID  
MS VALLEY TODAY, AS STANDARDIZED 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES THERE REACH  
3 SIGMA. A RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS  
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TODAY AND CAROLINAS TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED RISING  
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE AN ALREADY-PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE  
INVERSION, EVIDENT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT ON 00Z-OBSERVED RAOBS OVER  
THE REGION, TO STRENGTHEN AND LOWER WITH TIME.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE, ANCHORED THIS MORNING  
BY A ~1006 MB LOW ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF HSE, WILL WOBBLE GENERALLY  
EWD AND AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH 12Z WED, WHILE  
DEEPENING 10-12 MILLIBARS.  
 
MOISTURE IN GENERALLY NLY FLOW TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOWERING  
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE AND STRENGTHENING  
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, WILL MAINTAIN MULTI-LAYERED CEILINGS OVER THE  
ERN TWO THIRDS OF CNTL NC THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON (ALL BUT  
THE SRN AND NW PIEDMONT), FOLLOWED BY EAST TO WEST CLEARING MID-  
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THOSE CEILINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN  
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, NOW EVIDENT IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA  
WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA FROM NJ SWWD THROUGH  
CNTL-ERN MD AND NRN VA, THEN SWD THROUGH ERN VA AND MOST RECENTLY  
NERN NC. THE AREA OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE FORCED PRIMARILY BY  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT CENTERED IN THE 295-300 K (925-  
850 MB) LAYER; AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE SWD  
INTO THE NRN AND CNTL COASTAL PLAIN OF NC THIS MORNING, WHERE A  
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH  
~15Z.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FOLLOW A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION AS THE  
CLOUDS/CEILINGS AND RANGE FROM GENERALLY PERSISTENCE MID/UPR 70S IN  
THE SRN AND WRN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPR 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN,  
FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...  
 
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH ENE  
FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
MEANWHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTING  
SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO  
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL  
NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, IN  
THE MID-TO-UPPER-70S. MEANWHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP  
SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, REACHING CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE DRY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS ELEVATED  
OVERNIGHT, AND SOME BRIEF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOWER-50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS  
CENTRAL NC UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE  
HIGH AND NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO  
OUR EAST. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST TO THE TN VALLEY  
AND GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON SATURDAY AS IT  
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS IN RESPONSE  
TO A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW THAT TRACKS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO  
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGHING  
OVER THE EASTERN US. WHILE THE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN  
THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT, A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LOOKS  
TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE, BUT WITH ITS PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT, THE  
BEST UPPER FORCING TO OUR NORTH, AND MEAGER INSTABILITY (A FEW  
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE OR LESS), RAINFALL AMOUNTS DON'T LOOK TOO  
IMPRESSIVE. GFS/ECM ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF CONTINUES TO BE ONLY IN THE  
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH RANGE, AND EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS ONLY  
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS LIKELY WON'T BE ENOUGH TO MAKE A  
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE ONGOING ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. MONDAY SHOULD TURN CLEAR AND DRY  
BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL TURN MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID-60S NE  
TO LOWER-70S SW. DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.  
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE PERIOD OWING TO GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM THE SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL BE  
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES  
IN THE 1340-1350 M RANGE, FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER-30S TO  
LOWER-40S, AND ISOLATED FROST CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE COOLEST  
OUTLYING SPOTS OF THE PIEDMONT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE  
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND WE GET SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL TURN WARMER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS  
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-40S TO LOWER-50S ON  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MID-TO-UPPER-50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL  
TURN COOLER AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-60S TO  
LOWER-70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 720 AM TUESDAY...  
 
MOIST, NLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS OVER ERN VA/NC,  
LOWEST NEAREST THE COAST, WILL SPREAD SSWWD AND ACROSS RDU AND FAY  
BY AROUND 15Z. THOSE CEILINGS, ONES WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT RWI THIS MORNING, WILL THEN  
GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER/CLEAR TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH  
THE DAY, FIRST AT RDU AND LAST AT RWI AND FAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT GSO AND INT. NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL  
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS,  
STRONGEST AT RWI, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 14Z. SURFACE WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST, AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY SO, THROUGH SUNSET.  
 
OUTLOOK: STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND 2500-3500 FT AGL WILL PROBABLY  
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER ERN NC; AND SOME MAY REDEVELOP  
WSWWD TO NEAR AND ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF RWI AND RDU WED MORNING. A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE LIKELY  
THROUGHOUT CNTL NC THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MWS  
NEAR TERM...MWS  
SHORT TERM...DANCO  
LONG TERM...DANCO  
AVIATION...MWS  
 
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