471
FXUS62 KRAH 230600
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
1) MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN TODAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
2) DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED CONVECTION RETURNS TO CENTRAL NC
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN TODAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH MOST OF OUR CENTRAL NC COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWEST TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL AID IN DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT AND RH LEVELS BECOMING MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
PERCENT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND HREF SUGGEST PERHAPS MIDDLE
50S IN THE NW, UPPER 50S IN RALEIGH AND LOW 60S IN THE SE. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE MOISTURE MAY HANG
OUT WITH THE FRONT SLOWER TO EDGE THROUGH. BUT ALL IN ALL, A GREAT
AFTERNOON TO BE OUTSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S, WITH A FEW OF OUR COOLER SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S. THAT LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, DESPITE HIGHS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, TO NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTH.
WITH THE MOISTURE LINGERING IN OUR FAR SE TODAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM, ESPECIALLY SAMPSON COUNTY, THOUGH
OVERALL ENSEMBLES KEEP MOST STORMS TO OUR EAST ALONG THE COAST. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE GFS, INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STALLS OUT ALONG CENTRAL SC. THIS WAVE
IS PROGGED IN SOME GUIDANCE TO TRACK NORTH MONDAY AND PERHAPS BUCKLE
THE FRONT BACK NORTH. THIS COULD INITIATE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
STORMS MONDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON, MOST FAVORED IN THE SANDHILLS TO
THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE, RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS MAY INCREASE IN OUR SOUTH
AND EAST MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED CONVECTION RETURNS TO
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUES MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EAST-NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PARADE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH
FRI. MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE LOW LVLS AS EARLY AS WED, WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN ON THURS, ALTHOUGH RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
RETURN AND PWAT VALUES RISE BACK TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT BACK INTO THE 60S WHICH MAY
LIMIT THE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
THURS APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WITH NEUTRAL H5 HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND POTENTIAL INFLUENCE FROM ANY
MCV'S FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. REASONABLE HIGH-
END TOTALS FOR ANY GIVEN AREA WILL BE AROUND 1" TO AS MUCH AS +2"
BASED ON THE 12Z LREF. HOWEVER, THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT OCCUR
EVERYWHERE, AS IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECEIVE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.5"
BETWEEN 8 AM THURS TO 8 AM FRI. FOR NOW, NO WIDESPREAD CONCERN FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
AN AREA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TIED TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED OWING TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TAKING OVER.
WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD, THE OVERALL PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW. WITH BOTH INT
AND GSO SEEING A STORM SAT EVENING, THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
STRATUS OR VISIBILITIES INCREASES FOR EARLY SUN, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS CAN GO CALM BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE INCLUDED A
TEMPORARY MVFR RESTRICTION FOR THIS THREAT. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS AT FAY AND
SECONDARILY AT RWI. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT AT FAY
THROUGH EARLY SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS APPEARS MORE
LIKELY BASED ON THE ATMOSPHERIC SETUP. WE CONTINUED THIS TREND
FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT FAY/RWI, WITH GREATER LIFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AT FAY. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING POST-
FRONTAL. SOME GUSTS TO 18 KT ARE FAVORED IN THE AFTERNOON. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM NEAR FAY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD RESIDE WELL EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AT
FAY/RWI. OTHERWISE DRY VFR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUE,
THOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT MON AT FAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT INCREASES MIDWEEK AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION RETURNS WED-
THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/SWIGGETT
AVIATION...KREN
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