130
FXUS62 KRAH 121840
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...
1) A WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT.
2) LIMITED CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
3) A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL FEEL COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS.
4) THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT.
LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, A BOUNDARY SET UP OVER CENTRAL NC,
BISECTING THE REGION IN HALF. SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTED DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT STARTED LIFTING NORTH OVER WAKE COUNTY
JUST AFTER NOON. PWS OVER THE REGION ARE VERY HIGH (AROUND 2-2.3 IN)
WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW CELL MOTIONS TO CREATE AN
ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF A SHOWER MOVES OVER AN URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE AREA. THE AREA OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES NORTH AND
OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS/STORMS PROVIDES ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
LIFT.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST. ANY RAIN THAT
DEVELOPS DUE TO THIS SHOULD MOVE FASTER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S RAIN,
LEADING TO A LOWER FLOODING THREAT.
IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CELLS TODAY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO MAXIMIZE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG, WITH LOW SHEAR VALUES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW CELLS TO GET TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BUT KEEP ANY
WINDS WITH THEM BELOW SEVERE STRENGTH. HOWEVER, A FEW WATER-LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LIMITED CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS TN AND AL AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL
BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
EAST OF THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BE EXITING OUR EASTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY BUT GREATEST ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE LESS
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN TODAY WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF A SHOWER
OR STORM ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OR A SHOWER OR STORM
IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS NEAR 70.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
FEEL COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A NORTHERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS
ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS WHILE A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN RECENT
WEEKS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S (MAYBE
MID 50S) POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. DRY WEATHER
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A NOTICEABLE NORTHEAST BREEZE AT TIMES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 4... THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND RESULTING IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT MID LEVELS WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AS A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/UPPER LOW
ORGANIZES NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND SHIFTS WEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
MEANWHILE THE NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO VA AND
THE CAROLINAS WEAKENS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK COASTAL FRONT
TRIES TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RESULT FOR OUR AREA
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AND
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND COASTAL
FONT, AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND THAT COULD INCREASE
FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...
AS OF THE 17Z OBSERVATIONS, THERE REMAINS A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL NC. OVERNIGHT, A BOUNDARY BISECTED THE REGION,
WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH WHICH HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SLOW TO
LIFT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT, ALONG
WITH ALLOWING A MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
CELLS, BUT THEY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AS RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE NIGHT, ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF IFR TO
PERHAPS LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A LIMITED RISK OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
IS A LESSER, BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES/LH
AVIATION...LH
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