445
FXUS62 KRAH 280607
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 AM TUESDAY...
1) ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF
5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, PRIMARILY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, PRIMARILY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE
MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER AND IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, REACHING WEST VIRGINIA BY MORNING AND CONTINUING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CLUSTER IS LIKELY TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT REACHES
NORTH CAROLINA, BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE, BUT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL WITH THIS
WAVE.
HOWEVER, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE INITIAL
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS, THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE EAST OF US-
1. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POTENTIALLY LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR NOTING THE INITIAL
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS THAT THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE WEST, REDUCING, BUT
NOT ELIMINATING, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE TRIAD. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE MUCAPE VALUES AT LEAST 2000 J/KG, AND THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 30 TO 40 KTS, WITH THE GREATEST SHEAR TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 4-
8PM, MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE 06Z FORECAST FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR FORECAST FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON: THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL COME FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES,
GREATEST FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TO THE WEST OF US-1. ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 125 AM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: THE VISIBILITY AT RWI HAS ALREADY DROPPED AS OF 05Z, AND
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BR AT FAY
AS WELL. THE ODDS OF RWI DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH HIGHER
THAN FAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNRISE, IT
APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR THE
OH/MI BORDER WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IF NOT SOME SHOWERS WITH ITS DECAY AS IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO INT/GSO, THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS (PROB30 AT FAY)
FOR TSRA, WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT EACH TERMINAL AS WELL AS ADDING PREVAILING GROUPS
FOR SHOWERS AT FAY/RWI. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING, LIKELY ENDING AROUND 06Z AT FAY.
OUTLOOK: WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE WIND
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MIXING TO CONTINUE AND MINIMIZE
THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY, AND MOST
PROBABLY AT INT/GSO.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...GREEN
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