419
FXUS62 KRAH 100636
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
236 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT MID-WEEK. MILD
TEMPERATURES UNTIL A LATE WEEK WARM-UP.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ALOFT, A S/W, LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS OF 06Z SUN, WILL SWING
SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY, AMPLIFYING THE PARENT TROUGH IN THE
PROCESS. THIS S/W MAY SPLIT/SEPARATE FROM THE PARENT TROUGH THEN
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH AS THE TROUGH
AND SOME S/W ENERGY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE REGION MON/MON NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND
DROP SWD ACROSS THE AREA ON MON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
EWD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF/ALONG IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THIS AFT/EVE BEFORE SHIFTING
SEWD TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS MON WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION, WITH A GRADIENT OF 10-15 DEGREES FROM N-S
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW, HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S FROM N-S EXPECTED.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE LOW TRACKS
EWD AND OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO, MAINLY
ALONG THE FRONT AND IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LOW MON AFT, WHERE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. IN THE WARM SECTOR MON AFT/EVE,
THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WITH 300-500
J/KG OF SBCAPE AND ~50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. NORTH OF THE FRONT
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE DAY 2
SPC OUTLOOK HAS GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF CNTL NC, WITH
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO STILL CLIPPING
SRN SAMPSON COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ONE MORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT MID-WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES UNTIL A LATE WEEK WARM-
UP.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO BE
LACKING. THUS, THERE IS LITTLE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, MUCH WARMER OR EVEN HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S. THIS WARM-UP AND DRY
WEATHER LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SOME MVFR (OR POSSIBLY IFR) CIGS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT KFAY AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE, BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NW
THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL VARY FROM SWLY TO NWLY AND BACK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MON. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WED INTO THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/BADGETT
AVIATION...10
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