903
FXUS62 KRAH 061710
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THERE IS A LOW-END SEVERE RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS TONIGHT.
* THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 110 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, THE NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 110 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, TONIGHT, AND DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES (MVCS) TRACKING EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT PRESENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY REGION. AN MCV CURRENTLY NEAR CLT WILL BRING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, BUT WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRACKS EAST
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO FUEL ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS THE
TRIANGLE, WE SHOULD STAY DRY EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG/EAST OF
US-1.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
MCVS ARE EXPECTED TO REIGNITE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TN AND
NORTHERN AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SIMULATED BY THE LATEST HRRR/NAM-NEST, TRACKING EAST TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT INCREASES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REACH ANOMALOUS VALUES. AT THIS TIME TOO, MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
500 J/KG COMBINED WITH 50 KT OR GREATER OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS OF CENTRAL
NC. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED SOME GUSTY WINDS
TIED TO THIS MESSY CONVECTION TRACKING EAST, PERHAPS RELATED TO A
POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN OUR PRIOR DISCUSSION. SPC
DOES INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER
THIS AREA OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS. AS SUCH, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FROM ABOUT 22Z TO 03-04Z TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WITH THE SAID
LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STAY PINNED
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS VA.
THURSDAY: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED MCVS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST OF THE OVERALL ORIENTATION
OF THE SHOWERS. SOME OF THE 12Z CAMS, SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM-
NEST SHOW MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE TO OUR NORTH AT THIS
TIME, AN EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY SET UP SOUTH OF US-64 AND ANY
ASSOCIATED MCVS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT IS
WHERE A LOW-END SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL STILL REACH
OVER 50-60 KT BUT INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING, LEADING TO
REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
OUT OF VA, EARLIEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH IN THE LATE-AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE FAVORED AS THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS STILL SOUTHWESTERLY, AIDING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ATOP THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
AS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO ALIGN SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS TIME.
SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTH AND FORCING WANES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FAVOR LOWS BY EARLY
FRI IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: WHILE EMBEDDED MCVS AND POTENTIAL MESSY CONVECTION
MAY ALTER THE ORIENTATION AND PATTERN OF RAINFALL, MOST CAM
SOLUTIONS INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH, WITH HIGHER END ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES OF
RAIN. THE 00Z HREF PAINTED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
CHARLOTTE UP INTO THE TRIANGLE AND ROANOKE RAPIDS, WHILE THE 12Z
HREF SHOWS SIMILAR AMOUNTS BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SHUNTED A BIT
NORTHWEST OF ITS 00Z SOLUTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, THE NEXT
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL SINK
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST BY FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TO
THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT, IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE FORECAST NOW CALLS
FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95, MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS GOING TO MOVE ALONG
THE EAST COAST IS NOW PROJECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY. AS
A RESULT, THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING, AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95, BUT NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY
MONDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1244 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
DECAYING MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON,
LITTLE OF WHICH IS REACHING THE SFC. SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY
BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THUS FAR TODAY. GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RES OUTPUT, DECIDED TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES TILL ~05 (KINT/KGSO) TO 09Z
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI). UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND NORTHWESTERN SC THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY WANE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT A STRONGER ASSOCIATED GUST COULD REACH KFAY LATER THIS
EVENING. THINK THE ODDS ARE LOW, BUT DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A PROB30
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT
WHILE CEILINGS SOCK DOWN TO IFR EVERYWHERE NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL STORM ACTIVITY EARLY
THURSDAY ACROSS SC, WHICH COULD PRODUCE A STRONGER GUST AT KFAY
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A STRONG JET JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD INDUCE PERIODS OF LLWS AT KFAY/KRDU/KRWI. HOWEVER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH IN TERMS OF MIXING POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD WHICH COULD LIMIT TRUE LLWS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE DECIDED TO
NOT INTRODUCE LLWS AT ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TAF PACKAGE. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. AS SUCH, KINT/KGSO AND KRWI MAY TURN NLY
AND GUST A BIT POST-FRONTAL LATE IN THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: A FAVORABLE PATTERN MAY EXIST FOR FOG/LOW-STRATUS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
SUN-MON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/GREEN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/AS
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