068
FXUS62 KRAH 252338
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...
* INCREASED MAGNITUDE OF WINDS AND WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. FURTHER INCREASE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES AS THE FORECAST ENTERS THE HIGH-RES MODEL RANGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN, SEASONABLY
GUSTY WINDS, AND A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
2) ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AROUND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) WIDESPREAD FROST CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FREEZE
POSSIBLE SUN MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN, SEASONABLY
GUSTY WINDS, AND A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT COMING FROM
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
AMIDST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS, MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHED LOBES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES, ONE OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COMES LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF
THE BETTER DPVA OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ONLY EXPERIENCE MEAGER
H5 HEIGHT FALLS. PRIMARY FORCING WILL COME FROM A COMBINATION
OF LOW-LEVEL FGEN AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH A
SEASONABLY MOIST BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MEDIUM-HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS (< 0.5"). SHOWERS AND
SOME ISOLATED STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT AS
700-500MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO > 7C/KM FROM A
REMNANT/MODIFIED EML OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTS OVER THE
CAROLINAS, BUT WITH THE LACK OF GULF MOISTURE INFLUENCE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, THE BASE OF THE EML MAY ACT TO CAP DEEP
CONVECTION. POINT SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S COULD SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN SBCIN AND
RESULT IN 500-1000 SBCAPE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OF 30-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS
COMBINATION WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A
MARGINALLY STRONG STORM OR TWO, BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY, CONVECTIVE TEMPS UNLIKELY TO BE MET AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND STORM MOTIONS KEEPING CONVECTION ELEVATED BEHIND THE
FRONT, WILL ALL GREATLY LIMIT THE RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AROUND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DESPITE MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS ON FRIDAY, DAILY
RECORD WARMTH, A MARGINALLY DRY AIR MASS, SEASONABLY BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND BORDERING HISTORIC DRYNESS WITHIN 100HR-
FUELS MAY ALLOW FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TO BECOME ESPECIALLY
HAZARDOUS. ADDITIONALLY, DRY POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WITH WIDESPREAD MINRH LESS THAN 30% WILL LIKELY ENHANCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RH WILL
BE CLOSER TO 20%.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WIDESPREAD FROST CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FREEZE
POSSIBLE SUN MORNING.
A MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SAT
AND BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUN MORNING,
STRENGTHENING TO +1035MB. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY
COMPARED TO SAT MORNING (BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE), BUT A MORE
FAVORABLE SURFACE HIGH LOCATION SHOULD PROVIDE MORE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SUN MORNING. LEANING INTO
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SUB-
FREEZING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF URBAN CITY CENTERS WITH MID/UPPER
20S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS TO ANY EARLY
BUDDING PLANTS/VEGETATION THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO THE COLD. THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR CENTRAL NC WILL BEGIN THE MORNING OF
APRIL 1ST WHICH WILL RESUME THE ISSUANCE OF FROST ADVISORIES,
FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS. UNTIL THEN, WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS RISK IN THE HWO AND GRIDDED WEATHER FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. PERIODS OF MOSTLY BKN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE
THIS EVENING, THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5-6KFT AGL WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THU. INT/GSO/RDU HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU
(AROUND 04Z-14Z), AS SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SSW AT 3-6 KTS ARE
TOPPED BY A SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 30-35 KTS WITH AN INVERSION AT 1200-
1400 FT AGL. THE LLWS WILL DISSIPATE WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING THU,
WHEN SW WINDS 9-14 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 18-24 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z FRI, ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THU
NIGHT 04Z-12Z, FOR SW SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TOPPED BY AN
INVERSION WITH SW WINDS AT 35-45 KTS AT 1500-1800 FT AGL. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY TREND TO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN FROM N TO S LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
FRI NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AT RDU/RWI/FAY. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN SAT, LASTING THROUGH MON.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 27:
KGSO: 86/1921
KRDU: 87/2007
KFAY: 87/1946
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 27:
KGSO: 60/2007
KRDU: 65/1949
KFAY: 65/1949
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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