600
FXUS62 KRAH 111845
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND, OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
1) UNSETTLED WX PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES LATER
SATURDAY.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
1) UNSETTLED WX PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES LATER
SATURDAY.
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW AND EXIT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE, WE'LL SEE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, THE FIRST
OF WHICH BEING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THE REST OF TODAY,
A FEW OF WHICH COULD INCLUDE AN ISOLATED STRONG OR POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WIND GUST (SEE SWODY1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS).
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE DAY AND EARLY NIGHT, APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST UNSETTLED PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
AND BEGINS MOVING ACROSS. WHILE A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY
TIME SATURDAY, THE MOST LIKELY TIME AND BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LATE IN THE DAY FROM MID-AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CENTRAL NC IS INCLUDED IN THE DAYS 1
AND 2 ERO, SO ANY OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD RESULTS IN ISOLD
FLOODING OF THE TYPICAL SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, SUCH AS URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO
OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOC WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHICH WILL OCCUR LATER SUNDAY, THUS THE REASON FOR THE ONGOING
ELEVATED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE TIME AND RESULTING DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN ADDITION, THE AIRMASS... WHILE STILL A FEW DEG ABOVE
NORMAL... WILL AT LEAST BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH,
BROKEN OFF FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WILL DRIFT SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST.
TODAY'S NWP MODELS FORECAST IT TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SO
THAT OUR ONLY IMPACT FROM IT WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTY NE WINDS AT
TIMES DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
AT MOST IF NOT ALL SITES. A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE THIS EVENING, HOWEVER ANY CELLS THAT HAVE TRIED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THUS FAR HAVE NOT LASTED LONG BEFORE
DISSIPATING. IF A CELL DOES SUSTAIN AND TRACK OVER THE AIRPORT,
THERE COULD BE LIGHTNING AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. TONIGHT, THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER MUCH OR ALL OF CENTRAL NC,
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO
ALL TAF SITES. THE TRIAD (INT/GSO) TERMINALS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD
REMAIN MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE OF RAIN IMPACTING TERMINALS, HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND OR AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS
AGAIN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AS WELL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP
AVIATION...HELOCK
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