349
FXUS62 KRAH 132338
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) A BROKEN LINE OF DECAYING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2) TRENDING HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROKEN LINE OF DECAYING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE REGION SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING, OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY'S. AN AREA OF MIXED CHARACTER
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER IS EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN VA IN
ASSOCIATION OF A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS OUTPACING
THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE FRONT DOWN INTO TN WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE UNDERNEATH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC/GA COAST AND INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP TO THE NC COAST WILL PREVENT RICHER
LOW-LVL MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA AND RESULT IN A
WIDELY STABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IN
KY/TN THAT WILL BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING/DECAYING TREND AS THEY
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ENCOUNTERS THIS STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DO DEVELOP A WEAK, SHALLOW, AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SATURATED LAYER IN THE MID-LEVELS POST
EFFECTIVE FRONT (CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND/OR EASTWARD ADVECTION OF
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH), WHICH MAY SUPPORT VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN LARGE TD
DEPRESSIONS BELOW THIS SATURATED MID-LVL LAYER AND WEAK
FORCING, ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE FROM TRACE AMOUNTS
TO AS MUCH AS A 0.1".
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TRENDING HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LIMITED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
A SOMEWHAT PERTURBED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRI. BY LATE SUN AND ESPECIALLY MON, AN ANOMALOUS MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST, REACHING 588
DM BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH BRINGING MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING 60S DEWPOINTS NEXT WEEK, LOW- LEVEL THICKNESS WILL
RANGE FROM 1415-1420 M, TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY. THESE VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WARMEST IN THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED SUNDAY ONWARD, PERHAPS PERSISTING WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETELY ZERO, THEY APPEAR LIMITED AT BEST, FOCUSED ALONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OF ANY SEA-BREEZE, PIEDMONT OR LEE TROUGH.
IN THE PERTURBED ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND, MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
UPPER- TROUGH LATE SAT AND SUN. THIS COULD FAVOR SOME ISOLATED
STORM ACTIVITY SUN BUT AS OF NOW THOSE CHANCES ARE AROUND 20
PERCENT. A BETTER CHANCE OF ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN
ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONT FROM
THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH
THU, BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW CHALLENGES FOR AVIATION INTERESTS. A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR NW AREAS (INT/GSO), AND AS
THIS FRONT TRACKS TO THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO BEING FROM THE
NW, AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT INT/GSO/RDU BETWEEN NOW AND
~05Z, BUT THESE SHOULD BE NON-IMPACTFUL WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS. JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT, HOWEVER, A SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW MOVING FROM WV INTO NW VA WILL MOVE
TO THE ESE AND MAY SKIRT BY INT/GSO/RDU BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z, WITH A
BRIEF WIND GUST TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. THE RISK OF LIGHTNING AT ANY
SITE IS QUITE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO, ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
STILL HOLD. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY, AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO OUR SE
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING, INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 9-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS FROM 14Z TO 23Z THU.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z FRI, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE
THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY SUB-VFR FOG OR STRATUS
IN THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WILL START TO INCREASE BY SUN/MON.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17:
KGSO: 94/1915
KRDU: 92/1947
KFAY: 97/1941
MAY 18:
KGSO: 95/1911
KRDU: 95/1906
KFAY: 96/1911
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17:
KGSO: 69/1991
KRDU: 71/2025
MAY 18:
KGSO: 70/2015
KRDU: 72/1896
KFAY: 71/2018
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/AK
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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