262
FXUS62 KRAH 280711
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
* LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE LOWERED AND REFLECT WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS, WITH A HARD FREEZE (IE. <28F) PROBABLE IN
TYPICALLY COLDER, RURAL LOCATIONS
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NC, WHERE
LITTLE TO NO RAIN FELL FRI EVE AND WHERE THE OVERLAP OF STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED
2) WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS TONIGHT-SUN MORNING, WITH A HARD
FREEZE (IE. <28F) PROBABLE IN TYPICALLY COLDER, RURAL LOCATIONS
3) DRY WEATHER, WITH STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES, ARE EXPECTED
FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL EXACERBATE THE
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. A SHIFT INTO A WETTER PATTERN IS
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
NC, WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN FELL FRI EVE AND WHERE THE OVERLAP OF
STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER, AND MOSTLY BETWEEN
ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE NRN PIEDMONT, NRN
SANDHILLS, AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN, WILL HELP LESSEN OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO RAIN FELL FROM THE SRN
PIEDMONT TO THE SRN SANDHILLS AND SRN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE FUEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND FURTHER DRY.
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF 25-40 MPH WINDS IN CAA BEHIND THE PASSING
COLD FRONT FRI EVENING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SECONDARY ONE AMID A
SECONDARY MAX IN MSL PRESSURE RISES, AND WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THOSE WINDS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AS DIURNAL HEATING
CAUSES RH TO DECREASE TO MINIMUMS MOSTLY BETWEEN 20-30% (LOWEST OVER
THE SRN AND WRN PIEDMONT). GIVEN THAT THE OVERLAP IN TIME OF
STRONGER WIND AND LOWER RH WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WETTING RAIN OVER ALL BUT SRN ZONES, NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE
PREVIOUSLY COORDINATED AND ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS TONIGHT-SUN MORNING,
WITH A HARD FREEZE (IE. <28F) PROBABLE IN TYPICALLY COLDER, RURAL
LOCATIONS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
FOLLOWING NWLY FLOW AND HEIGHT RISES THAT WILL PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE.
AT THE SURFACE, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG, CP HIGH CENTERED AT 1040 MB
OVER IA THIS MORNING, AND WITH A RELATED LARGE AREA OF STANDARDIZED
MSLP ANOMALIES OF 3-5 SIGMA FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS,
WILL PROGRESS ESEWD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC
BY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED CALM, AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO, WILL FAVOR
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OF THE CP AIRMASS. 1000-850
MB THICKNESSES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 METERS LOWER
THAN THE 1323 METERS OBSERVED AT GSO THIS PAST WED MORNING, WHEN
OBSERVED LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR-MID 30S. WITH
THAT IN MIND, AND LEANING HEAVILY INTO THE COLDEST MOS/STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE (MET AND EC), AND USUALLY BEST-VERIFYING IN SUCH REGIMES,
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY BETWEEN 26 AND
32F - SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... DRY WEATHER, WITH STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES,
ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
EXACERBATE THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. A SHIFT INTO A WETTER
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A SURFACE HIGH
THAT MOVES EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. D2 (SEVERE DROUGHT) CONDITIONS ALREADY COVER MOST OF
CENTRAL NC, AND THE LACK OF RAINFALL MAY WORSEN THOSE CONDITIONS
FURTHER ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. PW VALUES
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 150-200% OF NORMAL BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WPC QPF ARE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO AT MOST A
HALF INCH EACH DAY, AND INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK, SO DROUGHT-
BUSTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, IT COULD STILL PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE EACH DAY FROM THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AT LEAST ACROSS
THE NORTH, AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ACCORDING TO SOME
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
50S AND 60S. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
AN AREA OF MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS, EXCEPT IFR ONES AND WITH LIGHT RAIN
AT RDU AND RWI THROUGH 07-08Z, WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT SEWD AND OUT
OF CNTL NC THROUGH 12-15Z. GENERALLY NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
OTHERWISE REMAIN MODESTLY STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF WEAKER WINDS AND LESS GUSTS POSSIBLE
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMID A RETURN
FLOW REGIME, AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CNTL
NC, EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...MWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page