942
FXUS62 KRAH 301015
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
616 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* PLENTY OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...
1) WE WILL START THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS AND FOG. THEN,
SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SE COASTAL
PLAIN.
2) HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN QUICKLY THIS WEEK, BEGINNING
MONDAY AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WE WILL START THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS AND
FOG. THEN, SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
SE COASTAL PLAIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE WIND HAS BECOME LIGHT
EASTERLY. THE STRATUS WILL BECOME RATHER EXTENSIVE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO LINGER WELL INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MUCH OF NC. HOWEVER, THE WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR
THE COAST WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR SE NC. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER MANY AREAS
TODAY WITH THE MORNING CLOUDS AND LIGHT E FLOW. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN QUICKLY THIS WEEK,
BEGINNING MONDAY AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT FROM THE HOT AND DRY
SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS ESSENTIALLY MEANS AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 90-95 RANGE MONDAY AND WELL INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS
TUE-FRIDAY. THE HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH 105 BY TUESDAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL BE LIKELY.
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING, EXPECT VERY
LOW POP FOR ANY STORMS THIS WEEK. QPF WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 ON
AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 616 AM SUNDAY...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SPORADIC WET GROUNDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS/FOG LOOKS FOR MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH 15Z TODAY. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT OR SCATTER OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF RWI AND
FAY.
OUTLOOK: LOOKING AT MONDAY AND BEYOND, GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT SOME
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 2: KRDU: 99/1912
SEPTEMBER 3: KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 101/2010
SEPTEMBER 4: KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 2: KGSO: 73/1912 KRDU: 75/1912 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 73/2020 KRDU: 78/1933 KFAY: 77/2020
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT
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