549
FXUS62 KRAH 071806
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
203 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 203 PM THURSDAY...
1) STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
2) NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
FEW WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 203 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRIANGLE HERE
SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH, WITH AN OUTSIDE GUST TO
25 MPH.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TIED TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE TRIANGLE AND
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ESTIMATES SO FAR FROM MRMS SUGGEST SEVERAL
AREAS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH, WITH STREAKS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AN ADDITIONAL 0.1 TO
0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SHOWERS EXIT TONIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH, A REDEVELOPMENT
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, TRACKING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AN AREA OF CLEARING IS
ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR CHARLOTTE AND THIS MAY AID
SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY UPWARDS OF 250-500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE.
WITH DEEP-LAYER FLOW STILL QUITE STRONG OF 50-70 KTS, CANNOT RULE
OUT THAT LOW-END DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS IN THE HOURS
OF 3 TO 8 PM. WHILE THE SPC MARGINAL RISK COVERS OUR EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WE THINK THAT THREAT ALSO
EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST ZONES AROUND 8 PM,
WITH CLOUDY SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN SOME NORTHERLY STIRRING, IT CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS BECOME CALM.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE CHANCE LOOKS LOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO SPLIT THE REGION,
WITH SOME ENERGY PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND MORE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WOULD LEAVE CENTRAL NC AS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN RAINFALL. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN.
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND
MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN HOW EARLY RAIN MAY FALL WITHIN BOTH ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS
MAY START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS
CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CAN BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY IN THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION OF EACH
ENSEMBLE ENDING AT 2AM MONDAY. THE GEFS HAS AROUND 0.1 TO 0.4 IN OF
RAIN IN CENTRAL NC, WHILE THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE ONLY SHOWS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE REST OF THE REGION DRY. THE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY WITH THE STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.1 TO 0.5 IN OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. AFTER THIS, THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 129 PM THURSDAY...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AS
PRIMARILY STRATIFORM RAIN EXITS EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOME
CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH KRDU. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN SOME CAPACITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT FIRST NEAR KINT/KGSO
BEFORE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
THUNDER AT KINT/KGSO OR KRDU/KRWI, BUT CAN'T RULE AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM AND ASSOCIATED GUST AT KFAY LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE,
SOME NNELY GUSTINESS IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE, SO EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. ALL SITES WILL LARGELY LIFT TO VFR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING (HIGHEST CHANCES AT EASTERN TAF SITES). OTHERWISE,
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE ALSO BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/HELOCK
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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