629
FXUS62 KRAH 291043
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
1) ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE S AND E. DRIER WEATHER
STARTS SUN AND LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2) A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE S AND
E. DRIER WEATHER STARTS SUN AND LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION, RUNNING NE TO SW
THROUGH CENTRAL NC, WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO ITS NW AND
70-75 TO ITS SE. IN THE MID LEVELS, A BAGGY SHEAR AXIS TO OUR W HAS
BEEN STEADILY DRIFTING ESE TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE WEAKENING, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THIS SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS,
KEEPING US ON THE WEAKLY PERTURBED SSW MID LEVEL FLOW ON ITS EAST
SIDE. PW VALUES WERE AROUND 110%-125% OF NORMAL NW-SE FRI BUT ARE
PROJECTED TO DECREASE TO 90%-110% OF NORMAL NW-SE TODAY, AS BOTH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT GRADUALLY
TO OUR SE, AND AS THE SHEAR AXIS WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE MAINTAINING
AN ESE DRIFT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT STILL SHOW SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING TODAY,
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRIAD, FUELED IN PART BY PASSING WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS YIELDING MODEST DPVA, UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR JET QUAD, AND SBCAPE PEAKING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR IN OUR NW PIEDMONT AND LESSER DYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT WILL MEAN LOWER COVERAGE THERE, PERHAPS JUST
ISOLATED AT BEST. THE WEAKENING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND MODEST
CAPE SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW TODAY, BUT THE CONTINUED SLOW
CELL MOTION WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER RISK FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR S AND E WHERE THE PW WILL BE GREATER.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (EXCLUDING THE TRIAD) SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY MID EVENING, LEADING
TO FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
AS THE SHEAR AXIS WEAKENS FURTHER AND SETTLES TO OUR SSE WITH STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE W, PW WILL PLUMMET FURTHER, WITH A LOSS
OF LOW LEVEL ACCESS TO GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS SURFACE RIDGING
SPREADS E-W TO OUR S. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME QUITE
LOW SUN THROUGH AT LEAST WED, WITH BUILDING HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
NC.
AFTER ONE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY (HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-TO-MID-80S), A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY THAT
CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE IN LARGE PART TO A STRONG
~595 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THAT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING WARM SW FLOW TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY LOW
(IF ANY) PRECIPITATION CHANCES, EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS WE START THE WORKWEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY MID TO
LATE WEEK.
BY MONDAY, FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-90S, WITH MID-TO-
UPPER-90S BY TUESDAY THAT LAST INTO FRIDAY. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED 100F READINGS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. THE ONE SILVER LINING IS DEW POINTS DON'T LOOK OVERLY
OPPRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT TO THE
UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S EACH AFTERNOON (OTHER THAN PERHAPS THE FAR
SE). STILL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT, THIS IS ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-100S
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WPC EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK IS IN THE
MAJOR TO EXTREME CATEGORIES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS MEANS THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PROLONGED
NATURE OF THIS HEAT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER-
TO-MID-70S.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z, MAINLY AT RWI
AND FAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY SCT MID AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
HALF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AFTER 16Z, ALTHOUGH
SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING (17Z-23Z), MAINLY AT FAY WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI AND
LOWER STILL AT INT/GSO, AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN AND
NEAR ANY SUCH SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTER 07Z TONIGHT, THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS, LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, UNDER 8 KTS, MAINLY FROM
THE NE AND E BUT SHIFTING TO BE FROM THE SE AND S.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUN, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH 13Z EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH DRIER WEATHER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE FROM SUN THROUGH WED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 1: KRDU: 101/1932
SEPTEMBER 2: KRDU: 99/1912
SEPTEMBER 3: KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 101/2010
SEPTEMBER 4: KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 31: KGSO: 73/2012
SEPTEMBER 1: KGSO: 74/2012 KRDU: 76/1932 KFAY: 77/2021
SEPTEMBER 2: KGSO: 73/1912 KRDU: 75/1912 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 73/2020 KRDU: 78/1933 KFAY: 77/2020
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/DANCO
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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