987
FXUS62 KRAH 150630
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 225 AM MONDAY...
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY. A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
2) POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HEAT LIKELY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY. A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, NW FLOW WILL BRING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY RIDES ALONG IT FROM SC TO THE NC COAST. THIS MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS REACHING OUR FAR SE AND E ON TUESDAY, BUT
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS WE WILL BE LARGELY STABLE.
INSTABILITY MAY START TO CREEP BACK INTO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS SW AND BRINGS IN MORE WARM MOIST
AIR. BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NW, AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY. STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL
RESULT IN PW VALUES INCREASING BACK ABOVE NORMAL (AROUND 2
INCHES). SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER-60S TO
LOWER-70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER-80S TO
LOWER-90S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ON
FRIDAY. BROAD TROUGHING WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US AND MID-ATLANTIC, AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRACK
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS, RESULTING IN WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE WAVE AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER WITH IT COMPARED TO THE GFS. SO CONFIDENCE
IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW, BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SOMETIME FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AROUND 60-70% OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT AT LEAST
0.25" OF QPF, AND 30-40% DEPICT OVER HALF AN INCH. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR. WHILE THE STRONGEST FLOW LOOKS TO BE TO
OUR NORTH, THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DEPICT AS MUCH AS 40-50 KTS
OF MID- LEVEL FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HEAT LIKELY THURSDAY.
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW GYRE OVER CANADA EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PERSIST NEAR-NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUES AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN FLANK OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL HELP ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD
BRING BACK THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT THURS AND POTENTIALLY
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS, UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHIFTING INTO THE REGION, AND A SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM A DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS WILL ALL RESULT IN LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
HAZARDS HEAT TO DEVELOP/PERSIST DURING THIS TIME.
THURS WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT TO
DEVELOP WHEN 19-21C 850MB TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA,
AND WOULD SUPPORT 2M TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100,
GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND LIMITED CONVECTION. HEATRISK
HIGHLIGHTS WIDESPREAD MAJOR CATEGORY IS LIKELY, INDICATING THAT
NOT ONLY IS THIS HEAT PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL, IT IS CORRELATED
WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT ILLNESSES AS NOTED BY HISTORICAL CDC
HEAT-HEALTH DATA, AND THIS HEAT COULD PRODUCE HEALTH IMPACTS ON
ALL POPULATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND
COOLING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 AM MONDAY...
AN AREA OF DECAYING LIGHT RAIN NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS MAY MAKE IT TO RDU AND PRODUCE VFR LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 6-8Z
BEFORE COLLAPSING ALL TOGETHER. A COLD FRONT ANALYZED JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAS PRODUCED BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 5-
10 SUSTAINED AND 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS) AFTER ITS INITIAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING, AND MAY DO SO OVER THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 6-
8Z. AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE SEEN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID-CLOUDS DEPARTURE OVER SOUTHWEST NC INTO UPSTATE SC. THIS AREA OF
CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD AND REACH FAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST, BUT CIGS MAY DROP AS
LOW AS 600 FT. LOW-END GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE FROPA AFTER SUNRISE, BEFORE GRADUALLY
RELAXING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
BETTER CHANCES AROUND FAY, LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15KT GUSTING TO 25-35 KTS AT TIMES THURS INTO
FRIDAY, MAXIMIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
CHANCES RETURN THURS WITH SIGNALS OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THUR NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS
LOW.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015 KFAY: 102/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 18: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 77/2025 KFAY: 76/2017
JUNE 19: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 73/2025 KFAY: 77/2017
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JD/AS
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE...RAH
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