463
FXUS62 KRAH 081125
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 1227 AM SUNDAY...
* FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY
WITH MINIMAL (IF ANY) ACCUMULATIONS
* BECOMING UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1227 AM SUNDAY...
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
2) CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW TODAY.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY MID-WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
4) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A LITTLE WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND COLD AIR AVAILABILITY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1227 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
REMAINS UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A
1025MB RIDGE WAS POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC, WITH STRONGER
RIDGING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF CONFLUENT FLOW AND A WEAK WAVE
OVER IL/IN AND IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER
THIS MORNING.
UNTIL THAT WAVE (AND ITS CLOUD COVER) ARRIVES AFTER DAYBREAK, LOOK
FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH SOME DEGREE OF BREEZINESS AT TIMES.
MOST SITES HAVE DROPPED TO 5-7 KTS OR LESS AS OF 05Z HOWEVER WITH
AMBIENT AIR TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 20S, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH FOR
WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS. THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH 10 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 10
DEGREES OR LESS. WHILE WIND CHILLS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC, THEY WON'T BE COLD ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADVISORIES
DUE TO LOWER THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW TODAY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
PIVOTING BACK TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE 500-700MB WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE,
THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND MID LEVEL
SATURATION WITH THIS WAVE ALREADY. UPSTREAM RADAR DATA AND SURFACE
OBS SUGGEST THE PRECIP OVER NW INDIANA IS REACHING THE GROUND.
OBVIOUSLY THIS FEATURE WILL BE MODIFIED AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS TAKE HOLD, HOWEVER IT WOULD APPEAR
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST OF
SOME FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FROM MID MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A STAGGERING AMOUNT OF
LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM 925-700MB WITH DEWPOINTS AS LOW
AS -40C ON THE GSO AND RNK 00Z SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE CHALLENGING FOR
SNOW TO SURVIVE THROUGH THAT LAYER AS IT FALLS, THUS ACCUMS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE
FORECAST BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE/NO
IMPACT. PRECIP STARTING IN THE WEST AROUND 12-15Z AND QUICKLY
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA, EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE 21Z.
KEY MESSAGE 3... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY MID-WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S WAVE, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES,
ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN READINGS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW DAYS AROUND JAN 22 AND JAN 23, YOU REALLY HAVE TO
GO BACK TO THE 2ND WEEK OF JAN FOR THE LAST TIME WE HAD SEVERAL DAYS
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS WARM ADVECTION
WILL COME COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A LITTLE WINTRY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND COLD AIR
AVAILABILITY.
AFTER A MID-WEEK WARMUP, OUR TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HEAD
BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL LATE-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND (NORMAL FOR FEB 11-
14TH IS HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S). WE'RE
APT TO SEE AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM CA ACROSS THE
S PLAINS INTO THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
THE DEGREE TO WHICH THESE PERTURBATIONS PHASE (OR DON'T PHASE) WITH
POLAR STREAM TROUGHS WILL DETERMINE NOT JUST TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
ANY SURFACE SYSTEMS BUT ALSO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
NON-LIQUID PRECIP. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH, THE RISK FOR BITTERLY COLD
AIR GETTING THIS FAR SOUTH APPEARS LOW. WHILE THE MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVORS A BROAD TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER THE EAST COAST
BY THE WEEKEND, THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ALONG WITH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF, SHOW A WIDE
VARIATION IN TIMING AND DEPTH OF MID LEVEL WAVES. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS UNSETTLED TREND, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI-SAT,
WITH A PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE OF RAIN, BUT WE'LL CLOSELY MONITOR THE
CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
TAF PERIOD: NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH 12Z TAF ISSUANCE, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE HICCUP IN THAT FORECAST WOULD BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
PASSING FLURRIES AT INT/GSO WITH A WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE,
THE ODDS OF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND ARE QUITE LOW, BUT
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIKELY FALLING AS SNOW, THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE JUST
EXPECT MID LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS,
LIKELY SCATTERING OUT AFTER DARK.
OUTLOOK: VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MULTIPLE
WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-075>078-085-086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/GIH
AVIATION...GREEN
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