633
FXUS62 KRAH 032303
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) WARMING TREND THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WARMING TREND THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-
LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SFC,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL NC THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN SLY
DURING THIS TIME, WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LUCKILY, PWAT WILL REMAIN LOW AND DEW
POINTS WILL LARGELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S EACH AFTERNOON
KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES TOLERABLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH,
THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK PRODUCT DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
"MODERATE" IMPACTS FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. AS SUCH, MAKE SURE TO
HYDRATE AND TAKE ACTION TO STAY COOL WHENEVER POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BREAKDOWN WHILE PWAT SURGES BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE
IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM
OVER VA POSSIBLY MIGRATING INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MAY SURGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD ADD ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY A BIT FAR OUT FOR TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
DETAILS. IF THE FRONT DOES SLIDE SOUTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, THIS COULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET,
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PREVAILING
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT, WITH THE WIND
LIKELY BEING CALM FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH NON-VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NTL
AVIATION...GREEN/JD
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