172
FXUS62 KRAH 241041
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
641 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HOT AS FORECAST FRI ONWARD,
ESPECIALLY WITH ONSHORE FLOW NEXT MON-TUE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) BECOMING HOTTER FRI-SUN, TRENDING LESS SO NEXT MON-TUE, THEN
POSSIBLY DANGEROUSLY SO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
2) DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL
PROBABLY PEAK SUN, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND
AMID NWLY FLOW AND WITH POSSIBLE UPSTREAM CONVECTION/MCS INFLUENCE,
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... BECOMING HOTTER FRI-SUN, TRENDING LESS SO NEXT MON-
TUE, THEN POSSIBLY DANGEROUSLY SO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
A COUPLE OF SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS INITIALLY OVER NRN MX AND THE WRN N.
ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND MS VALLEY
SUN-MON, DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS CYCLONE FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM
THE GULF OF AK TO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-LEVEL
HIGH AND SURROUNDING RIDGE WILL THEN EXPAND EWD AND INTO THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL AIR
NOW BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL HAVE
DRIFTED OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER HIGH OVER THE LOWER MID-LATITUDE AND SUB-TROPICAL CNTL N.
ATLANTIC. INCREASINGLY-HOT, SWLY FLOW WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND INTO BOTH AN APPALACHIAN-LEE TROUGH AND A WAVY FRONTAL
ZONE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE SRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. CNTL NC WILL BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FRONTAL ZONE
UNTIL SUN, WHEN IT WILL LIKELY SETTLE SWD AND ACROSS NC. FOLLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED ELY/ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST, AND WHICH SHOULD CURB THE HEAT OVER
CNTL NC MON-TUE. THE INTENSIFYING HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR ATLANTIC
STATES, AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THAT TIME,
WILL THEN PROBABLY EXPAND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO CNTL NC
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WHEN DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THIS
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY PEAK SUN, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AMID NWLY FLOW WITH POSSIBLE UPSTREAM CONVECTION/MCS
INFLUENCE, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY CLIMO (SLIGHT) PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL
FOCUS WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH, SEA BREEZE, AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW SETTLING SWD FROM FRONTAL
CONVECTION OVER THE VIRGINIAS. A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION (~30-
50%) WILL EXIST ON SUN, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND AMID NWLY FLOW AND WITH POSSIBLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION/MCS INFLUENCE. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN WHAT WILL BE A HOT AND DEEPLY
MIXED BL WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30C. ANTICYCLONIC, ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MON-TUE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 641 AM WEDNESDAY...
THROUGH 12Z THU: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 10KT) EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THANKS IN LARGE PART TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OUR AREA.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU. A RETURN TO
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FAVORED FRI-SUN WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND
CLIMATE
RELEVANT RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914
JUNE 29: KGSO: 74/2024 KFAY: 76/1969
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...NP
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