224
FXUS62 KRAH 041708
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY, WITH A
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
* FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...
1) NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS NE TO THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE REGIONS AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF ISOLATED FLOODING.
2) DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FROM
OUR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS NE TO THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE REGIONS AND
ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF ISOLATED
FLOODING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. THE CURRENT MID LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER GA, WHILE AN OFFSHORE-CENTERED ANTICYCLONE
EXTENDS ESE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AND THE WESTERLIES REMAIN
DISPLACED WELL TO OUR N. THIS IS LEADING TO A STEADY SSE-TO-NNW FLOW
OF MOIST AND PERTURBED MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WHICH WILL
PERSIST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS N TOWARD FAR SW NC.
AT THE SURFACE, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM THE
FL PANHANDLE ACROSS GA, THE NC FOOTHILLS, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO WAVER TODAY AS IT SUCCUMBS TO
THE WHIMS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES,
BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NW OF OUR N AND W CWA
BORDERS TODAY/TONIGHT. THAT KEEPS US IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A
PLUME OF HIGH PW (130%-140% OF NORMAL), ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGH-PW AREA
SHIFTING N INTO VA OVERNIGHT. WHILE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL CURB INSOLATION AMIDST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOSTLY
UNDER 6 C/KM, EVEN MODEST HEATING OF AN ALREADY-MUGGY LOW LEVEL
DEPTH WILL STILL FAVOR CAPE OF 750-1500 J/KG, WITH MINOR WAVES ALOFT
RIDING OVER OUR AREA SUPPORTING ABOVE-CLIMO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PW AND BOUTS OF WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT, OTHER FACTORS WILL EXIST WHICH WILL FAVOR A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINS. THESE INCLUDE A HIGH WARM-CLOUD (LCL-0C)
DEPTH OF 4-4.5 KM (FAVORING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES), A
SOMEWHAT SLOW CELL MOTION (EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 15 KTS), POSSIBLE
TRAINING CELLS, AND AN ADDED FOCUS FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY OUTFLOWS
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS, LIKELY TO BE
ORIENTED SW-TO-NE THROUGH THE CWA, ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CLT TO NEAR
IXA. THE RECENT RAIN SURPLUS HAS ALSO LED TO DAMP OR NEARLY
SATURATED SOILS (RAINFALL AT GSO/FAY/RDU IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS IS
200%-300% OF NORMAL). WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, DUE
TO THE EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MIGHT
BE FOCUSED. BUT IF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DOES FALL AS EXPECTED, IN
PARTICULAR OVER URBAN AREAS AND HIGHWAYS, FLOOD ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS MAY STILL BE NEEDED.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS FAIRLY LOW TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
UNIMPRESSIVE CAPE AND BULK SHEAR, BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS,
PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST, COULD GENERATE PULSE MICROBURSTS WITH
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OVER 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING.
WE'RE LIKELY TO STAY WITHIN A WEAK FLOW PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH WEAK BUT PERSIST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOURCED FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH FAR E TN/KY AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES
(SPECIFICALLY, BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE N PLAINS AND N GREAT LAKES)
THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK, WHILE THE OFFSHORE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
DRIFTS BACK W TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE WELL BACK TO OUR NW AND RESULTING IN GRADUALLY RISING
HEIGHTS OVER NC, ESPECIALLY IN THE E BY THE WEEKEND. THE FLAT GREAT
LAKES TROUGH WILL WEAKEN, BUT A BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD
FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER MISS VALLEY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY ON THE HIGH SIDE, GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY, THROUGH MID WEEK, GENERALLY HIGHER IN THE NW AND
SE (THE LATTER FROM SEA BREEZE ACTION). BUT AS THAT RETROGRADING
RIDGE BUILDS INTO NC, WE SHOULD TREND TO MORE TYPICAL CHANCE POPS
FOR FRI THROUGH MON. THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST, BUT SOME AI MODELS DO SUGGEST A
TREND TOWARD FEW STRONGER STORMS SAT INTO MON AND BEYOND. REGARDING
TEMPS, HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND WED, FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BY A CATEGORY OR
TWO THU INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 105 PM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS
BEEN MINIMAL, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
PARTICULAR CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TERMINALS MAY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED CIG/VIS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AROUND
SUNSET, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE MVFR CEILINGS, ALTHOUGH
RDU/RWI HAVE BEEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO INT/GSO/RDU BY 04-06Z. MEANWHILE, TO THE EAST
AT FAY AND RWI, FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CONDITIONAL BASED ON
WHETHER CLOUD COVER IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CEILINGS - IT APPEARS
THAT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THESE SITES, BUT IF CEILINGS
ARE ABLE TO FORM LATE TONIGHT, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE IFR. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE BACK TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FAY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY RISE TO VFR.
THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON,
DROPPING TO 5 KT TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE NEXT MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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