273
FXUS62 KRAH 090521
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
1) AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD, CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE
UNSETTLING WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS TRACK THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD, CENTRAL
NC WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLING WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
DRIVEN BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PEAKING BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A BRIEF LULL MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE A FINAL
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
STORM TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES, THOUGH
LOCALIZED URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. COLD AIR
DAMMING SET UP WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (~0.5
TO 1 INCH), WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN.
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW OVERALL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
A HIGH-SHEAR, LOW-CAPE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
THE CAD WEDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DAMP OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NW TO LOW 70S IN THE SE AND BREEZY
EASTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNSHINE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR-
TERM. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
ACROSS FAY IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK: STRATIFORM RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CNTL NC LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. COLD AIR DAMMING AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL RESULT AND BE SLOW TO ERODE, IF AT ALL OVER THE
PIEDMONT, THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PROBABLY BE ERADICATED AT FAY AND RWI, AND MORE
BROADLY ACROSS ERN AND E-CNTL NC, BY THE NWWD RETREAT/PASSAGE OF A
WARM/WEDGE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HEAVIER, CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION MAY FORM ALONG OR NEAR THAT FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AMID OTHERWISE LIFTING/SCATTERING OF LOW CEILINGS WITH ITS PASSAGE
AND ERADICATION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/MWS
AVIATION...KREN/MWS
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