283
FXUS62 KRAH 011916
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THURSDAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY FOR
AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT.
2) MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM
THURSDAY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. DANGEROUS HEAT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT
WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAINING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
500-MB HEIGHTS AND ONLY MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
STRENGTH OR POSITION OF THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, BEFORE COOLING OFF JUST A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE
DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL MIX OUT DURING PEAK HEATING, HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL COMMONLY RANGE FROM 102 TO 108 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SAME PERIOD, WITH TOMORROW BEING THE FIRST DAY OF SUCH HEAT INDICES.
THUS WITH TOMORROW TBEING THE FIRST DAY OF SAID HEAT INDICES, WE
JUST ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR THAT'S IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY. MAX HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT LOWER EAST OF I-95 SOUTH OF ROCKY MOUNT DUE TO
LINGERING LOWER DEW POINTS (COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST), SO
THAT’S WHY THOSE AREAS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY. ALL OF
CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO BE INCLUDED IN FRIDAY’S HEAT ADVISORY WHEN
THAT’S ISSUED TOMORROW.
A COUPLE OTHER HEAT-RELATED POINTS WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE:
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
PROVIDING LIMITED NOCTURNAL RECOVERY, ALLOWING CUMULATIVE HEAT
STRESS TO INCREASE AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.
- THE GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PROLONGED DURATION OF THE
HEAT RATHER THAN ANY SINGLE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT DAY. CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND WARM NIGHTS COMPOUND IMPACTS.
- THE EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEAT RISK PRODUCT INDICATES MAJOR HEAT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EXTREME
HEAT RISK POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
(WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK)
- WHILE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION (PARTICULARLY FROM SUNDAY ON)
MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED AND TEMPORARY RELIEF, COVERAGE APPEARS
INSUFFICIENT TO SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE THE OVERALL HEAT HAZARD.
- ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MULTIPLE DAYS,
AND PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA SHOULD TEMPERATURES TREND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OR
HUMIDITY REMAIN HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- FINALLY, THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE FOR THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING, INDIVIDUALS WORKING OR RECREATING OUTDOORS, AND OTHER HEAT-
SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AS THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT
ENSEMBLE DATA, SUNDAY'S RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DECREASING, WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME
POTENTIALLY STARTING SUNDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY: PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY ON, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL POSE THE PRIMARY RISK FOR
BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084.
DISCUSSION...NP/LH
AVIATION...NP
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