552
FXUS64 KMRX 131802
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
102 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 40 TO
50% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
- DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES THIS MORNING WITH THE WEATHER FORECAST. MILD
WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BECOMING WARMER NEXT WEEK AS OUR WELL
EARNED THAW CONTINUES. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL UNDERCUT TENNESSEE OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN LIKELY TO HOLD OFF ON SATURDAY UNTIL LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN SNEAKING IN SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE LEADING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD HOLD RAIN
AT BAY, BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS SATURDAY EVENING WOULD BE LIGHT. THE
VAST BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SUNDAY, WITH A 50% CHANCE FOR
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. LOOKING THROUGH THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERENT SWATHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN, NORTH VS SOUTH VS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND WITH SEVERE DROUGHT, IT IS VERY MUCH NEEDED.
NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WIND FLOW, THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME BREEZY WINDS ON THE PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
IN SPITE OF POOR MIXING.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT VERY EARLY ON MONDAY, A DRY PATTERN SETS UP
WITH A WARMING AIRMASS THANKS TO HIGHER UPPER HEIGHTS SETTING UP
OVER THE BROADER MID SOUTH REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE
THE EASTERN US OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ONLY A WEAK CYCLONE
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK CARRIES LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR US. OTHERWISE THE
WARMING TREND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD 60S AND 70S TUESDAY AND AFTER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TOMORROW, BUT IT WILL BE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5-7KT, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT KCHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 35 62 48 / 0 0 0 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 31 60 45 / 0 0 0 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 32 59 45 / 0 0 0 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 28 57 41 / 0 0 0 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...CD
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