165
FXUS64 KMRX 311123
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 720 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- VERY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT LATE WEEKEND WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR-TERM DROUGHT
AND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS, MOISTURE RETURN, WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EB SHEAR WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20KT, SO A PULSE CELL/STORM
SET-UP WOULD SEEM THE MOST LIKELY. ALTHOUGH MANY WILL KEEP THE DRY
SPELL GOING TODAY.
A BETTER CHANCE OF INCREASED MOISTURE OCCURS WEDNESDAY, WITH
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE, EAST OF I-75. AN
UP-TICK IN INSTABILITY IS DISPLAYED IN MODELS COMPARED TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE SCOOTING NORTHEAST. A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO JUST OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DAILY CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-
WEEK, WITH FURTHER INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
A DEEPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MAKE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TRACK, WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION, HOPEFULLY BRINGING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. THE
SET-UP FOR THIS ONE WOULD DEFINITELY PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, SO WILL NEED MONITORING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE SPC DOESN'T HAVE ANY OUTLOOKS CIRCLED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 8
YET. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, WITH MUCH
COOLER READINGS TO START THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL. SOME FROST
DEVELOPMENT COULD VERY WELL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE ARE VERY LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH NO FOG EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 62 84 61 / 20 10 50 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 62 83 59 / 10 10 60 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 61 82 59 / 10 20 60 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 57 80 56 / 20 10 70 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW
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