043
FXUS64 KMRX 212353
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
653 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED FROM SW KY ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN TO
CENTRAL EAST TN, JUST SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE AT THE MOMENT. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS
ARE MOVING IT TOO FAST, AND THAT CURRENT RAINFALL IN NE TN WILL SLOW
ITS PROGRESS. IN ANY CASE, WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP GRADUALLY DECREASING
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS FRONT, WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
AS WE GO INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS QG FORCING PICKS UP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
ALTHOUGH THE POSITIVE TILT OF THIS TROUGH WILL MEAN FORCING WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK AND CONVECTION WILL BE DISORGANIZED. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~ 500-700 J/KG) WILL GIVE A LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST WHERE CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.
THE CAMS THAT SHOWED SOME STRONG STORMS WITH EARLIER RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF THAT SCENARIO IN THEIR MORE RECENT RUNS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, PEAKING ON
MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVED ALONG THE OH VALLEY
REGION. CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
A BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAIN IN VICINITY OF TRI WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CONFIDENCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALL
WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TYS/CHA. AN
ADDITIONAL FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH
MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MAKING A RETURN. IFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VIS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN AXIS
OF FORCING SWINGS THROUGH, GENERALLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OR SCATTER OUT AROUND MID-DAY AT TYS/CHA.
HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 75 49 68 / 60 40 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 71 47 64 / 70 50 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 70 44 64 / 80 50 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 66 42 60 / 70 60 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS
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