846
FXUS64 KMRX 291736
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100-105 DEGREES SEEM PLAUSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THAT BEING SAID, AFTER THIS AFTERNOON, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE SMOKIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CURRENTLY THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS STARTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON THE TN/NC/GA BORDER AREA. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE STEERING FLOW PRESENT OUT THERE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER UNPLEASANT RETURN TO HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCKS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90'S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVERY AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. AND UNFORTUNATELY
ALONG WITH THIS THE DEW POINTS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 60'S TO
LOWER 70'S MAKING FOR HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE SHOULD
FORM ALONG THE SMOKIES AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. OUTSIDE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IT WILL REMAIN PRETTY DRY THIS
WEEK FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A SHORTWAVE
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COMES IN A BIT STRONGER AND IS ABLE TO MAKE
A DENT INTO IT AND BRING IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS, BUT THIS LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL
TO SUPPORT A STRONGER TROUGH JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT
COULD HELP NUDGE THIS RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO RETURN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRESENT ONCE AGAIN, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MOUNTAINS TO NOT IMPACT AN AIRPORT. OUTSIDE OF
ANY ROGUE STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 92 71 94 / 0 20 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 91 70 92 / 0 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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