792
FXUS64 KMRX 100528
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
128 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY, WITH THE AFTERNOONS GENERALLY THE PERIOD OF MOST
ACTIVITY.
- THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
THE MAIN THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NOT BE FAR EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS BEING SITUATED
BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, AND TROUGHING ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVES ROLLING IN FROM THE NW. THIS
PLACES US WITHIN A GENERAL NW FLOW PATTERN. NO REAL AIRMASS CHANGE
OR NOTICEABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN SIGHT, AS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO
RECORD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND MOSTLY UNCHANGED, WITH 70S DEW POINTS (IN THE VALLEY)
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER US NEXT
WEEKEND, PROVIDING THE POSSIBILITY OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
WEATHER.
LATER TODAY HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH RECENT/NEWER RUNS OF THE CAMS.
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
POSSIBLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY, WILL NEED MONITORING,
AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
AN MCS OR REMNANTS OF ONE, WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AROUND MID-DAY TUESDAY. 00Z RUNS OF CAMS MOSTLY SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY. DAY 3 SPC ISSUED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON DOES BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE GENERAL PATTERN WE'LL BE IN FOR THE COMING WEEK, PAIRED
WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES UNDER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY IN SOME CAPACITY.
THIS TIME OF YEAR DOES FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF MCS OCCURRENCE, BUT
THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME, THE GREATER THE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS
TIMING, EXTENT, AND SEVERITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DURING THE PM HOURS, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN
THREATS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, SO EXPECT FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK
OR SO. IT'S ALREADY OCCURRING AT KTRI. CURRENTLY HAVE 2SM IN
THERE FOR KTRI BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. WILL MONITOR FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT TYS AND CHA HOWEVER. OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE LESS KEEN
ON AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH MOST GUIDANCE
FAVORING KCHA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KTRI. NOT SOLD THAT THERE'S
NO DEVELOPMENT INVOF KTYS HOWEVER SO I INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION
THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 74 93 74 / 30 10 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 74 92 74 / 20 10 40 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 72 92 72 / 10 10 40 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 70 88 69 / 10 20 50 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page