401
FXUS64 KMRX 072356
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
756 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 746 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR TN AND SW NC
COUNTIES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WARM AND STICKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING OVER THE COMING WEEK. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SURGING IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA, AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE
MOVING IN MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR
SW COUNTIES. THE THREAT OF FLOODING LOOKS HEIGHTENED ON MONDAY AS
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE AREA. MODELS PORTRAY A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR EARLY JUNE IN OUR
AREA. FLOW IS WEAK AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY, AND THE
EXPECTED MODEST CAPE LOOKS TO BE OF THE TALL SKINNY VARIETY WHICH
COUPLED WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL FAVOR VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. CAMS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOOK
POSSIBLE. PINPOINTING THE EXACT LOCATIONS WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THE RISK LOOKS
HIGHEST ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR TN AND NC COUNTIES FOR MONDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS NO STRONG DRYING IS FORECAST ANYTIME SOON, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE
DATA INDICATES VALUES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN ON MONDAY. DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PEAK HEATING. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MESSY TAF PERIOD AHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE, BUT LOW CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWARDS, TYS AND TRI WILL
MAINTAIN VFR STATUS A LITTLE LONGER. SHOWERS, AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
TSTORMS, WILL SPARK AGAIN AS EARLY AS 8Z AND PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TN
VALLEYS, BRINGING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN TO TYS
AND CHA. TRI HAS THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING HEAVY
RAINSTORMS OR CATEGORY REDUCTIONS, THOUGH AGAIN A LOW RISK FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z IS POSSIBLE AT TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 80 68 84 / 70 90 60 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 80 68 84 / 30 80 50 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 79 67 83 / 40 90 50 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 86 67 84 / 0 60 50 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-
CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNION-WEST POLK.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-
UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page