243
FXUS64 KMRX 110636
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
236 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 232 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
- POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
A HOT AND YUCKY SUMMER DAY CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY UNDER SHARP
RIDGING PUNCHING IN OVERHEAD AND W-SW FLOW CONTINUALLY BRINGING IN
THE INCREASED WATER VAPOR. HEAT INDICES IN THE VALLEY COULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH POSSIBLE 100 DEGREES SNEAKING IN
SOMEWHERE. IT'LL BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, SOUTHWEST NC, AND INTO SOUTHWEST VA. YOUR TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME FORCING NEAR/IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER STICKY AND HOT DAY, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
MAY END UP A DEGREE OR MORE "COOLER" WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION TIMING OUT AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
EXTENDS MRGL TO SLGT INTO OUR AREA FROM THE VIRGINIAS COINCIDING
WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER NOW THAN
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. 24 HOURS AGO AND BEYOND, THE FRONT APPEARED TO
ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT IT MAY
JUST CROSS THE REGION DURING THE "BEST" TIME FOR STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ONE PARAMETER FOR ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LACKING THOUGH. MOISTURE IS OF COURSE
THERE, THE COLD FRONT IS YOUR FORCING, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE UP
THERE WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000+ J/KG RANGE. SHEAR,
HOWEVER, IS THE FACTOR THAT IS VERY LOW. SO, A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR
TYPE SET-UP. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST SEVERE WILL BE FROM ABOUT
THE MID-ATLANTIC UP INTO THE NORTHEAST US. RIGHT NOW, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
ACCORDING TO SOME 00Z RUNS, WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6.5 TO
JUST UNDER 7 C/KM.
THINGS CLEAR THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
FALL BELOW 90 DEGREES, BUT THE NASTY DEW POINTS WILL AT LEAST BE AT
BAY FOR ONE DAY, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND EVEN 50S FOR
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. ON THE TEMPERATURE SIDE OF THINGS,
HIGHS WILL JUST CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD ONLY MAX OUT TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S! UNFORTUNATELY, FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, WE
WILL NOT DRY OUT LIKE YOU'D TYPICALLY EXPECT. MOISTURE SETS BACK UP
ARCING ALONG A BOUNDARY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING HEAVY RAINS SOME PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DAY 5 ERO FROM WPC ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON,
INTRODUCED A MRGL THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA.
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN TO WHAT MAY OCCUR, BUT GRAND TOTAL FORECAST
QPF FROM SUNDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY, COULD BRING MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN
WITH HIGHEST POSSIBLE AMOUNTS SOUTH OF ABOUT I-40 AND KNOXVILLE.
.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TRI HAS A CHANCE FOR FOG
OR MVFR CEILINGS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
WOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS OR LESS AT
ALL 3 SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 73 91 71 / 10 0 60 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 73 91 69 / 0 0 80 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 71 90 66 / 0 0 80 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 91 70 90 65 / 20 10 80 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW
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