597
FXUS64 KMRX 140621
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
221 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
CAUTIOUS FOR QUICK VISIBILITY CHANGES, ESPECIALLY ON ROADS OR
BRIDGES NEAR AREA WATERWAYS.
2. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED FLOODING
INCIDENT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT DUE TO SENSITIVE SOILS,
CONCERNS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.
3. REDUCED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
4. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION:
MOSTLY DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING,
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BUT NON-IMPACTFUL OCCASIONAL
SHOWER. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY BROAD SWATH
OF 1.0-2.5" QPE TOTALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESULTING MOIST
PBL AND SATURATED SOILS WILL PROMOTE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG.
HOWEVER, A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD OR
COMMONPLACE DENSE FOG WILL BE DUE LINGERING HIGH CLOUD. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE MONITOR THROUGH THE MORNING AND ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS AS
NECESSARY BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS FOR QUICK VISIBILITY
DROPS, ESPECIALLY ON ROADS OR BRIDGES NEAR AREA WATERWAYS.
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY, H85 TO H5 FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY, RESPECTIVELY. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 1.8-1.9" BUT FINALLY FALLING SOUTH OF THE 2" MARK. AN IMPULSE
TRANSLATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OF LESSER COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WEAKER FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS WILL LIMIT THE ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT BUT
WITH 1HR FFGS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.8 INCHES CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
ANYTHING OUT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS WELL INTO
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES OF OBSERVING A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HEAT INDICES RETURN TO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100F. LOW TO MID 90S ARE
MORE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. RIDGING RETROGRADES
WESTWARD WITH INCREASING TROUGHING INFLUENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
MVFR TO IFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE,
WITH LIFR POSSIBILITY AT TRI. EXPECT TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
DAY TIME. INHERITED PROB30 KEPT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE CHANCE FOR STORMS. CALM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARD TO
LOWERED CIG AND/OR VSBY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 73 92 72 / 40 10 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 71 91 72 / 40 10 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 88 71 91 70 / 40 10 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 68 88 67 / 50 10 30 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KS
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