296
FXUS64 KMRX 151748
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1248 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
- RAIN WILL START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT ENTIRELY THIS EVENING.
- THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THIS COMING WEEK. NEXT RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR THURSDAY AND ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH AL/GA. STORM TOTAL PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION ALREADY HAS SOME POCKETS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES MAINLY
IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY MID
AFTERNOON, RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND SHOWERY, THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN WILL END
COMPLETELY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM EST. WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DECREASE AT THE FEW WIND TOWERS AVAILABLE THERE. WINDS ARE ALSO
COMING DOWN ON THE VAD WIND PROFILE RADAR PRODUCT. WIND GUSTS ABOVE
40 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT A FEW OF THE MORE WIND PRONE SPOTS BUT THOSE
HIGHER GUSTS MAY NOT HAVE BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AS FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER AS RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE PATTERN. BY WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY,
INCREASING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS CHANCES INCREASE FOR A SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. HIGHS THIS WORKWEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
STEADY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALREADY. SOME VCSH OR TEMPO -SHRA MAY PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW THOUGH.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS, WITH IFR OR LOW-END
MVFR DECKS. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THEM PERSISTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. WOULD EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL 15-16Z MONDAY FOR KCHA AND KTYS, AND
LIKELY AFTER THAT AS FAR NORTH AS KTRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 66 43 69 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 62 40 67 / 40 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 41 63 40 65 / 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 60 35 64 / 40 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...CD
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