894
FXUS64 KMRX 090631
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
231 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
- FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STARTS TO FLATTEN
TODAY AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION AS A DECAYING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN MAY ALSO ENHANCE ACTIVITY. PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MINOR
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN AT TIMES. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED AT TIMES. NBM
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN AND NEAR THE TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED NEAR
TRI-CITIES AND LOWER 90S FOR KNOXVILLE AND CHATTANOOGA AREAS,
GENERALLY ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TRI. STEAM FOG
OFF BOONE LAKE IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BUT
WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 64 87 66 / 0 0 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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