039
FXUS64 KMRX 221825
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
225 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
- ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF WITH THIS THREAT
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY OVER OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CAUSING FLOODING AS
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA, WITH THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CURRENT WATCH EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY PER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
THE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXACTLY HOW FAR IT MAKES IT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IS NOT
CERTAIN, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND OR JUST SOUTH
OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BORDER BY SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS
WELL. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THE FRONT WILL STILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. STORM MOTIONS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF TRAINING CELLS. CAMS AND THE HI-RES ENSEMBLES
SHOW A BAND OF RISK FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR SW NC AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY HIGHER
SOUTH THAN IT WAS FURTHER NORTH, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF HIGH EFFICIENCY RAINMAKERS WILL ISSUE AN ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WILL ALSO EXTEND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CURRENT
WATCH INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HAS THE BASIC PATTERN OF UPPER RIDGING
TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUING. WE
WILL SEE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AT TIMES THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR
AREA FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND THE RESULTING CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET FURTHER OUT IN TIME. HOWEVER, FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
THE FRONT NOT FAR FROM OUR SOUTHERN BORDER, THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THE LOCATION OF GREATEST FLOODING
THREAT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED WHICH IS
STILL UNKNOWN. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL, THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WILL SEE PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHIFTING SOUTH,
SO PRIMARILY TRI/TYS EARLY ON AND MAINLY CHA LATE. WILL SEE VFR
EARLY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TRENDS LATER IN THE
PERIOD, BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AT TYS/CHA, WITH TYS LIKELY BACK TO
VFR LATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 84 72 86 / 90 80 40 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 84 69 85 / 70 40 40 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 84 67 85 / 60 20 30 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 82 65 82 / 70 20 20 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-EAST
POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-KNOX-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-LOUDON-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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