820
FXUS64 KMRX 181742
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1242 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH AN INCOMING FRONT.
- COLDER, SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
CURRENTLY ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS PRESENT ACROSS
MIDDLE TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHICH IS PRODUCING A DRIZZLE
IN SPOTS. THESE WILL TRY AND MAKE IT FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY, BUT MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A MID LEVEL VORT MAX HELPS ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
LEVEL FORCING, ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. EXPECT ON/OFF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR EARLY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT PEOPLE COULD HEAR THEIR FIRST
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. BUT EXPECT PRIMARILY RAIN WITH THIS
FROPA.
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT
TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET MUCH COLDER WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING FOR VERY COLD CANADIAN
AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AND APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE REGION.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY BELOW 1" FOR ALL
BUT THE PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING, AND THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK
WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING SEEING LOWS IN THE 20'S TO UPPER TEENS.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED TO START FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
LOOKS TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THORUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAIN WILL TRY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON IT IMPACTING A TERMINAL DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL SPOTTY COVERAGE
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 77 60 73 / 30 20 80 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 74 60 69 / 50 40 80 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 72 58 69 / 60 40 80 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 71 55 66 / 60 50 70 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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