553
FXUS64 KMRX 041152
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
752 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 747 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY FAVORING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOST LOCATIONS NEAREST NORTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.
- DRY WEATHER TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AND LASTING MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AHEAD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CURRENTLY IN A CALM PERIOD BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AMOUNTED TO 1 AND A HALF
TO OVER 2, AND EVEN ISOLATED 3+ INCH AMOUNTS UP THROUGH THE VALLEY.
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA.
TODAY, WE'RE EXPECTING ONE LAST PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AREA
WHEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH BRINGS A WEAK LOW CENTER
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER BEFORE
HEADING OUT. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY. INCREASED JET DYNAMICS AND THUS,
EVACUATION ALOFT, WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. JUST ABOVE A HALF INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND EAST TO
THE BORDER WITH NORTH CAROLINA. BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, ACTIVITY
THAT ENDS UP TRAINING AND DUMPING HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, MAY LEAD
TO VALUES ABOVE THAT. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL IN
PLACE WITH LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN SW VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE, HOWEVER. EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE
IF A SHOWER BECOMES TALL ENOUGH.
SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY COULD LINGER FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH AND EAST
REPLACING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE REST OF THE WEEK BEGINNING
TOMORROW CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS DRY, TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL
ALBEIT COOLER, AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY WON'T BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH PREDOMINANT IFR/MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE CWA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. CHA WILL MAINTAIN
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER, SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
IN A PROB30 GROUP THERE. UNCERTAINTY BECOMES HIGH THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHERE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF VFR CONDITONS MAY
OCCUR BEFORE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MIX OF CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL, HREF PROBS HIT THE
TRI REGION WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR FOG TONIGHT, WITH A
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AT TYS/CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 79 63 82 56 / 70 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 61 79 52 / 70 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 57 78 51 / 50 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 57 74 46 / 40 20 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
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