165
FXUS64 KMRX 181232
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
832 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 749 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. WIND GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 40 MPH.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MORE
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
OUR AREA WILL BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR TO THE SOUTH AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ABOUT TO ENTER KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME OF THE
MORNING. AROUND SUNRISE OR JUST AFTER, THE FIRST SIGN OF THE LINE
WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES' DOORS. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IS CREATING GUSTY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. COVE MOUNTAIN, SO FAR, HAS GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 40S
MPH. SO, I SUSPECT OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SMOKIES AND FROM
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHWEST VA MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 40
MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LLJ IS CURRENTLY AROUND 35 KT
ACCORDING TO SPC MESO, WILL HOLD STEADY INTO THE DAY TODAY.
LIKE MOST RECENT EVENTS THIS PAST MONTH, TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY
LIMITED SHEAR. THE BETTER FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE TO THE NORTH,
EXTENDING INTO VA UP INTO THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SCOOTING OFF FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
AIDED BY TROPICAL REMNANTS, FORCING ALONG THE FRONT, AND CAPE
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SLICES OUR SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES, WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS THE
REST OF THE CWA. WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY STORM THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2
INCHES, FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE PRESENT. THE WPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPICTS
A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL SKIRT JUST SOUTH OF US, EXITING INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE FRONT SOMEWHAT BEING HUNG
UP OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS, WILL FOLLOW WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA DRIES OUT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST WILL FILTER
IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO SATURDAY. EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS UNDER A SHORTWAVE
BARRELING IN FROM THE MIDWEST REGION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
FOLLOWING IT. A FRONT FORECAST TO ARC ALONG THE GULF COAST TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IMPACTED NEXT WEEK UNDER TROUGHINESS AND
DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
MESSY TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR NOW. OFF AND ON
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
LIKELY ENDING BY 06Z TONIGHT, TO BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR OR IFR CIGS
TO END THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY, BEFORE
SUBSIDING TONIGHT. A FEW TS AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
COVERAGE, INTENSITY, AND IMPACTS FROM THE SCATTERED RA AND TS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 70 86 65 / 80 60 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 69 85 62 / 70 60 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 68 85 61 / 80 60 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 66 82 57 / 80 90 30 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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