450
FXUS64 KMRX 170601
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
201 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED FLOODING
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
BROAD TROUGHING CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE
TROUGHING IS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND PNW. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
VERY ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WILL BE REPLACED BY
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THE RETURN OF FLOODING
POTENTIAL TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
WITH NEAR 2 INCH PWAT VALUES. HEAVY RAIN RATES POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM, AND FLASH FLOODING COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND LAST WEEKEND. ACTIVITY WANES TONIGHT, AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD VERY WELL MIMIC TODAY.
AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE, THE SPC
PLACED ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OR DAY 3. DAY 4 CIRCLES A PORTION OF
THE CAROLINAS TO THE EAST. THIS INCREASED THREAT WILL BE DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD, BRINGING A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FOR
WHAT THAT MAY MEAN FOR OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST THREAT WILL BE WELL
NORTHEAST OF US.
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE FRONT, BROAD RIDGING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHILE TROUGHING SETS UP AGAIN EARLY TO
MID WEEK, WHERE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ONE THAT WE
MAY FEEL THE AFTER EFFECTS FROM FOR ONCE. THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD MAY SEE HIGHS FALL BELOW 90 AND DEW POINTS POSSIBLY BELOW 70.
LEADING UP UNTIL THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHRA ONGOING NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY THIS MORNING, WITH A TEMPO
AT KTRI FOR IFR, WOULD NOT RULE OUT LIFR. CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
VFR WITH MORNING SUN. ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, PERSISTED THE PROB30S AT CHA AND
TYS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 73 91 74 / 50 20 60 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 74 88 73 / 60 30 90 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 73 88 72 / 60 20 90 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 92 72 87 69 / 20 40 90 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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