738
FXUS64 KMRX 120601
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
201 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND.
HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LOWER, SECONDARY RISKS.
- UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BUT
LIKELY A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS, TOO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A BROAD TROUGH
WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. CAMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 2 PM EDT IN
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. STORMS WILL LIKELY START AS SINGLE CELL OR CLUSTER BUT MAY
BECOME MORE LINEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. INSTABILITY
WILL BE HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND CAPE AROUND 2000 TO
3000 J/KG. HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST CAPE ALONG AND
WEST OF I-75. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 7 C/KG AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 8 C/KG.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. SOME HAIL AROUND ONE INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS BUT WITH A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 15K FEET, LARGE HAIL IS NOT
LIKELY.
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT ARE SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES. OVERALL
THE FLOODING THREAT SEEMS LOW OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL FLOOD PRONE SPOTS
LIKE URBAN AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THE WET PATTERN
RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS BY MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN THE ECMWF IN THE MONDAY, TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR TAFS BEGINNING THE PERIOD, AND POTENTIALLY THE WHOLE PERIOD. A
PERIOD OF SCATTERED TS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, IS LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WITH PROB30S REFLECTING MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME. DIRECT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ARE LOW OVERALL
PROBABILITIES, THOUGH TYS AND TRI WILL BE MORE AT RISK OF HAVING A
TS OVER THE AIRFIELD. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS DURING AFTERNOON
MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 72 90 72 / 60 20 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 70 89 70 / 70 40 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 68 88 69 / 80 30 10 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 91 67 88 65 / 80 30 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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