077
FXUS64 KMRX 022324
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 722 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN SE TN AND SW NC; SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100-105 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS; HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS A LARGE AND
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE ALL BUT CERTAIN IMPACT IS FOR THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO CONTINUE. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. WHILE WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE HEAT
SATURDAY, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE JULY 4TH
AFTERNOON AS A MESSAGING TOOL WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 97 TO 102 LOOK TO BE MORE COMMON FOR
SATURDAY.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. 2PM TO 8PM EDT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE POTENTIAL
CONVECTION BRIEFLY IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. CHANCES WILL TREND
DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN, HOPEFULLY STEERING FREE OF ANY IMPACTS TO
FIREWORK DISPLAYS.
REGARDING TODAY'S STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT, BELIEVE THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY. SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2500+ J/KG. SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HIGH DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IS THE ABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO ACTUALLY INITIATE. WITH
LACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK CIN NOTED ON TYS ACARS
SOUNDINGS, LATEST CAM RUNS HAVE KEPT CI MORE ISOLATED AND SOUTH OF I-
40. HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY IN PLACE IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP
THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ULTIMATELY, A LOW CHANCE FOR
A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING THIS VERY
HOT AND MUGGY PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND DOWNWARD AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HELPS
TAMP DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPWARD
TREND IN POP COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
CURRENTLY A FEW LINGERING TS IN NORTH GEORGIA, WILL METWATCH FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT CHA. OTHERWISE QUIET OVERNIGHT, MAYBE PATCHY
FOG BUT GIVEN LACK OF RAINFALL TODAY THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. TOMORROW
ANOTHER BURST OF SCATTERED TS POSSIBLE, PROB30S AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY TS WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND NORTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 99 75 98 / 10 40 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 97 73 96 / 0 40 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 75 98 74 97 / 0 40 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 99 70 97 / 0 30 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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