599
FXUS64 KMRX 191146
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 742 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
- MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, THEN AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH EARLY MORNING SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF FOG
OUTCOMES, IN TERMS OF HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSITY. FOR THIS REASON,
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW FOG MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, ACCORDING TO NIGHT FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY,
BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS AND
WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT, MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THE TIMING WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE. IF THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED. IF
THE FRONT WERE TO PUSH THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN OUR
SEVERE CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AS OF NOW, MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING A MORNING ARRIVAL. THIS IS LIKELY WHY WE ARE STILL
IN AN SPC DAY 2 GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND NOT A MARGINAL RISK.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIVES
DOWN INTO THE TROUGH AND MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
LIKELY DRIER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THERE ARE
SIGNS OF ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE NBM POPS ARE LOW, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR ANY UPSTREAM IMPULSES THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. ONLY IMPACTING TRI AT THIS TIME, AS THE
OTHERS REMAINED VFR. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT
TRI. FOLLOWING FOG DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, VFR
AND LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, AS WELL AS
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 95 73 95 73 / 0 10 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 71 90 71 / 0 10 60 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 71 88 70 / 0 20 70 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 67 85 66 / 0 10 50 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KS
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