056
FXUS64 KMRX 111827
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
- DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND WITH OVER 1" OF
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MANY.
- DRY AND WARMER TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WE START THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST, AND THIS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR OFF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY LATE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM, BOTH WITH
HOW STRONG THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL TRACK. DEPENDING ON THESE DETAILS,
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY WORDING IN THE HWO. WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING SUNDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. LATEST NBM PROBABILITY
DATA SHOWS AROUND A 40% TO 70% CHANCE ACROSS OUR AREA OF RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 1 INCH BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND WEST. THE RAINFALL IS NEEDED AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY, THEN
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 56 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 50 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 30 51 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 26 46 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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