487
FXUS64 KMRX 311841
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A LOW-END RISK FOR ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS DUE TO RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. IF ALL THINGS LINE UP, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF WINDS UP TO 65 MPH AND 1 TO 1.5 INCH HAIL.
- A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BEYOND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW LONG AND SKINNY CAPE THIS AFTERNOON, EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAIN ENVIRONMENT, BUT PW VALUES AREN'T AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER, PWS ARE STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. COMBINE THIS WITH THE RECENT FLOODING AND HEAVY
RAINS, AND A LOW-END RISK FOR ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FORM OF AN UPSTREAM MCS. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST MENTIONED, THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. MLCAPE VALUES STILL SHOW AROUND
2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS, AND DCAPE OVER 1000
J/KG.
LOW LEVEL WINDS PROFILES DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT.
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE UP TO 65 MPH AND 1 TO 1.5 INCH HAIL APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST MENTIONED, CAMS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THIS MCS
TRACKS. SOME ARE STILL SHOWING IT IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
(MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40), WHILE OTHERS ARE SHOWING IT MISSING US
ENTIRELY, DUE TO THE MCS BEING FURTHER TO OUR WEST. WE SHOULD
HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA ON TIMING AND POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
LOCATION IMPACTS ONCE THIS SYSTEM HAS ACTUALLY FORMED TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS MISSOURI AND HOW IT EVOLVES THORUGH THE DAY. STAY
TUNED!
ON TUESDAY, WE STILL MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP TROUGH. BEYOND
THAT, A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT CHA AND TYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO SO GOING WITH
PROB30. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION WE GET THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 85 64 81 / 40 50 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 82 60 80 / 60 60 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 83 59 80 / 60 60 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 81 56 78 / 60 40 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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