133
FXUS64 KMRX 102312
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
712 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 711 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- MEAGER RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO PRIMARILY
LOCATIONS NORTH OF KNOXVILLE.
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND WITH 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREE HIGHS IN THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
ONLY REAL CHANGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL FORECAST ITERATIONS HAS BEEN
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THE VAST BULK OF HARDLY ANYTHING IS NOW EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
INTO AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES GETTING SLIGHTLY OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH,
THOUGH REFS PROBABILITIES AT THAT THRESHOLD AREN'T EVEN OVER 40%.
LOCATIONS KNOXVILLE AND SOUTH CAN EXPECT EVEN LESS TO ZERO.
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MORNING INCREMENTED SLIGHTLY WARMER, THOUGH
GIVEN CLEAR SKIES I STILL WOULD BE WARY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THANKS TO THE LIGHT RAIN. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES,
AND MAYBE (MAYBE!) A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN NORTHEASTERN TN AND NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE THEREAFTER AND WE START TO SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH, THE COMBINATION OF WHICH MEANS WE ENTER A MORE
LEGITIMATE WARM UP NEXT WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF 90F
WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KTRI IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAFS. MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
MVFR IMPACTS MOST LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS IMPACTING TERMINAL TONIGHT, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
TOMORROW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 76 50 80 / 10 30 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 73 46 77 / 20 60 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 73 45 77 / 30 50 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 68 41 73 / 40 60 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...99
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