449
FXUS64 KMRX 190643
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
243 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- SHOWERS EXIT NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AND THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WORTH
WATCHING.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE BUT CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, A SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET ARE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM KENTUCKY. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING IN THE NORTH
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY LINGERING, ISOLATED STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST,
LEADING TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
GENERAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH, PROMOTING
DRY CONDITIONS.
BY SUNDAY, A 500MB SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE TOWARDS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH RECENT
TROUGHING LIFTING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RECENT FRONT AS A
WARM FRONT. NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MANY. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PER THE LATEST DATA, INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER TO OUR WEST BUT
EXTEND INTO OUR REGION. A VEERING WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 35 KTS AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ.
INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER TO OUR WEST BUT EXTEND TO AT LEAST 500
J/KG IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE CIPS ANALOGS HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL SEVERE CHANCES IN OUR AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL
BE WORTH WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS.
BEYOND THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME, THERE ARE VARIABLE
INDICATIONS OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITH THE JET STREAM REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH. AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL DECREASE MOISTURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY MORNING, WITH TRI THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWER IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS.
PER LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES, BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TYS/TRI DURING THE MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 62 86 65 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 83 60 / 20 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS
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