386
FXUS64 KMRX 281741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1241 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THE FIRST OF THE WEEK, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.
- WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF
SUN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. VERY WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE BROADER
TROUGHING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE BETTER
SYNOPTIC ENERGY IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40, BUT EVEN THESE LOCATIONS
AREN'T EXPECTED TO SEE TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. NORTHEAST TN INTO
SOUTHWEST VA COULD SEE A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY, BUT WITH THE WEAK ENERGY IN THIS SYSTEM STILL EXPECTING ALL
RAIN, AND NO THUNDERSTORMS.
BIGGEST WEATHER STORY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RAPID WARMING WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ECLIPSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHEAST TN ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE GROUND NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING OUT
OF THE WEST. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF RAIN
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY, BUT
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BECAUSE IF THESE SYSTEMS SHIFT EASTWARD
WE'LL GET MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN. SO WHILE WE HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND, AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE SHOWERY INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FURTHER TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER WE DO FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THE SPECIFIC
TEMPERATURES CAN AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT AS OF
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS WITHIN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS IN SOME SPOTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 73 45 64 / 0 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 68 42 58 / 0 0 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 68 41 56 / 0 0 20 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 63 35 52 / 0 0 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page