329
FXUS64 KMRX 260534
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
- DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- BREEZY TODAY.
- COOLER THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY, WITH ACTIVE/RAINY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE AS OF 11PM EST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT LARGELY SPEAKING,
RAINFALL IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE BULK OF WHAT WE HAVE LEFT TO DEAL WITH BEFORE
DRIER AIR WITH THE WESTERNMOST FRONT, CURRENTLY FROM ROUGHLY
LOUISVILLE, KY THROUGH JACKSON, TN, PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT DRY AND STILL-MILD WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
WITH INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
BE STRONG IN RESPONSE TO A NEARLY SUB-990MB SURFACE LOW WRAPPING UP
OVER MICHIGAN TODAY. WHILE NOT ESPECIALLY DEEP, GENERALLY BELOW 800
MB, MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP INTO SOME WESTERLY 20-30KT
FLOW AROUND H85 WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS,
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ROUGHLY THE
KNOXVILLE METRO AREA NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TRI-CITIES REGION. BUT
EVEN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE A LITTLE WINDY TOO.
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS AS
WE REMAIN BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENT NORTHERN BRANCH
JET. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN BRIEFLY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FOR SUNDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO TIMING AND DETAILS COULD
CHANGE, BUT I'D SAY THE AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
LEAVE THE LOW-END LIKELY POPS THE NBM IS ADVERTISING FOR SUNDAY IN
THE FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LONGER TERM PART OF THE
FORECAST IS REALLY WHAT HAPPENS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW A +1030MB SURFACE HIGH SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
THAT'S NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AND THE TRAJECTORY ISN'T GREAT FOR US TO HAVE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND INDEED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS. STILL, WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME BRIEF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT SOME POINT.
LEFT SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST IN VARIOUS PLACES, BUT AGAIN
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE MORNING BRINGING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 34 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 31 46 24 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 31 45 24 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 29 42 22 / 20 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...MCD
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