956
FXUS64 KMRX 231823
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
223 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 216 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
- SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
- FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS TRYING TO EDGE TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS DIMINISHING ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ADJACENT, BUT WILL
ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR
NOW SINCE THE THREAT OF FLOODING, WHILE LOWER, IS STILL NON-ZERO
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH,
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WITH ITS AXIS UP THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS ALOFT DURING
FRIDAY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY OVER
OUR SOUTH AND EAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
ENERGY LOOKS VERY LIMITED BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE CAMS SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY OUR SW NC COUNTIES.
WHILE CURRENTLY THE THREAT OF FLOODING LOOKS LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED TODAY AND YESTERDAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE HWO FOR
FRIDAY.
THE GENERAL PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TO OUR WEST OVER THE PLAINS AND AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WE WILL SEE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION AT TIMES WHICH WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MOST NOTABLE SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
THE DETAILS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST). FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IS QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THESE FEATURES DOES GENERALLY LOOK HIGHER
NORTH THAN SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL,
THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES NOT
FAR EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM (TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS) WILL BE AROUND TYS AND ESPECIALLY CHA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD, AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A
PERIOD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE BACK
TO MVFR ALL SITES LATER IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 88 72 87 / 40 50 50 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 86 70 85 / 20 20 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 87 69 85 / 10 20 30 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 83 67 81 / 20 20 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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