075
FXUS64 KMRX 141822
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
222 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 219 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
- CHILLY TONIGHT,THEN A WARMING TREND WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS
BY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WE START THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND
A RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AFTER A COOL AFTERNOON TODAY, TONIGHT WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS
AND A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. FRIDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMALS. ALSO,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR
AREA, AND CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
GULF MOISTURE RETURN LIMITED. MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY DURING THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME, AND MAY REACH OR EXCEED 90 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN BY TUESDAY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING AND
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN
THAT FAR OUT MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE ESPECIALLY TRI IS THE ONLY
CONCERN, BUT RIGHT NOW THE PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY
LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION. WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST FOR
THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND
10KTS TO START, THEN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 80 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 78 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 78 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 75 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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