612
FXUS64 KMRX 240539
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE BOTTOM END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY ON ITS WAY TO ITS RENDEZVOUS WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH TODAY'S
ACTIVITY, BUT IF ANY BARK OCCURS NOT EXPECTING A BITE. NEXT FEW
MORNINGS STARTING FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL, AND A FEW
LUCKY SOULS IN SOUTHWEST VA OR FAR NORTHEASTERN TN MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 40F! FOR EXAMPLE, THERE'S A 30% CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING PER THE NBM AT BOTH MOUNTAIN CITY AND GLADE SPRING.
TROUGH QUICKLY EJECTS OFFSHORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BACKSIDE FLOW MEANS WE SHOULD BE DRY, PLEASANTLY WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES, AND ENJOYING A GOOD
ENTRANCE INTO NORMAL EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES DON'T LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH MAJOR
MODELS AGREE THAT A CLASSIC FALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MARCH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. GFS IS DOING ITS USUAL TOO SPEEDY
BIAS, BUT NBM INCREASES RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO END THE FORECAST
AND THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
SHOWER CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE WITH SITES
VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR CIGS. MOST SITES SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SOLID MVFR AS LOW STRATUS BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. BRIEF STINTS AT IFR
IS LIKELY, BUT DOUBTFUL TO PREVAIL. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP, BUT
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP SOME MIXING AND LIMIT IT. A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR AS CIGS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SCATTER BY MID-AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AROUND
DAYBREAK AND OPTED FOR A PROB30 AT TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 61 80 56 / 30 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 58 75 52 / 40 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 76 57 76 51 / 40 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 49 72 44 / 30 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BH
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