665
FXUS64 KMRX 031122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NWS MORRISTOWN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WARMING
TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WEAK VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO DEPART THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR INTO THE MORNING AND PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LEAD TO FROST/FREEZE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
MINOR H5 HEIGHT RISES AND A SHIFT TO MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND INTO THE 70S OR
NEAR 80 EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL FEATURE A WEAK IMPULSE
TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT. CAMS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
IMPACTING NORTHERN LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TROUGHING MID-WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ACCUMS > 1.0" HAVE STAYED STEADY AROUND 60-
70% THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT UPTICK IN JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE > 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR > 40KTS CAN BE
NOTED IN LREF PROBABILITIES. THESE PROBABILITIES GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 40-50% ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SOME DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HINTS AT JET COUPLING THAT COULD POSSIBLY ENHANCE LIFT
ENOUGH TO HELP OVERCOME A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. BIGGEST CONCERN
WOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. THERE MAY ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE SEASON
MTN/FOOTHILL GUSTY WINDS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS END THE WEEK POST
FROPA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 46 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 46 78 55 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 43 79 54 / 0 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 40 75 49 / 0 10 30 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST
CARTER.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT
VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
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