719
FXUS64 KMRX 190554
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1254 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
- WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG MOUNTAIN WINDS; MEANWHILE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A FRONT ON FRIDAY, BUT REBOUND
QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN MILD NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
MOMENT, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD OF IT. THAT LINE, WHICH HAD A HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50-60 MPH, WAS SITUATED FROM WEST VIRGINIA DOWN THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS OF 1230 AM, WITH THE ONLY PART OF IT
STILL WITHIN OUR CWA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THE TRI-CITIES AND NORTHEAST TN AREA. THIS SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 2AM AT THE LATEST, WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN QUITE
STRONG THROUGH 08-09Z OR SO, BEFORE 850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND DROP OFF. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THAT
TIME.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY, THE WINDOW FOR SNOW
BETWEEN DEPARTING MOISTURE AND INCOMING COLD AIR LOOKS BRIEF. THE
UPPER TROUGH CLOSELY TRAILS THE SURFACE FRONT, USHERING IN RAPID
DRYING ALOFT AND ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNRISE OR
THEREABOUTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, FRIDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRING LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE 50S.
MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY–WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES, BUT IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL. TOWARD LATE WEEK, A
BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FAVORS DRY, MILD
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
PREVAILING SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL TERMINALS BY 08Z OR SO, THOUGH
SOME OCCASIONAL RAIN COULD OCCUR THROUGH DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY NEAR
KTRI. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AT KCHA, BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN QUITE BREEZY AT KTRI AND POSSIBLY KTYS AS WELL. AS FOR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES, SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR OVER
MIDDLE TN AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOW AN EXPANSIVE MVFR DECK OVER
KENTUCKY. SUSPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR KTYS AND
KCHA OVERNIGHT, BUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER KY MAY PREVENT A RETURN TO
VFR LEVELS AT KTRI UNTIL LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 30 58 40 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 27 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 27 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 24 56 32 / 20 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page