543
FXUS64 KMRX 120655
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 243 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
THE MCS BRINGING US THIS PAST EVENINGS ACTIVITY HAS PASSED OVER
THE TN/GA BORDER WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ITS WAKE. OVERALL, THE THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND NEW FLASH FLOODING HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, BE CAUTIOUS FOR ANY
LINGERING FLOOD ISSUES AS WE CONTINUE INTO THESE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN IN A PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BENEATH
THE TRANSITION ZONE OF A STRONG RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH
AXIS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. COMPARING LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO THE 00Z
HREF SUITE, NAM3KM SEEMS TO BE INITALIZING THE BEST WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CI AND AN ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA.
THE CAMS THAT DO SEEM TO DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY TO A VARYING EXTENT
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. QUITE HONESTLY, I HAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS CONVECTION MAY PLAY OUT. THAT BEING
SAID, WE HAVE SOME VERY LOW 1HR FFGS BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.3 INCHES DUE
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PAST EVENINGS PRECIP. MORNING
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED, SO THE STRONG TO SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW BUT PERHAPS NOT ZERO DEPENDING HOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE DISTURBANCE EVOLVES. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE FOCUSED ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR
THOSE VERY WORKED OVER LOCATIONS IN OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS. HAVE INTRODUCED A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POOR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
CAMS THEN GENERALLY WANT TO DRY US OUT FOR MUCH OF THE MID-AFTERNOON,
WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS OR EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DEPENDING ON HOW WELL WE DESTABALIZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN HOW THIS SECOND ROUND
OF ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP TO COVER THAT WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE IT ISN'T OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY AN EXTENSION IS NEEDED.
AGAIN, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WEAKER SO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS SEEMS RELATIVELY LOWER, THOUGH
NOT ZERO. WE WILL ALSO START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS BY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE LOOKING AT HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERA AS WE HEAD INTO THIS LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD. WHILE WE
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL POPS, ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK EXTENT BUT PERHAPS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER COMPARATIVE TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
ADDTIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACT AT
TRI/TYS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TRI DUE TO HREF
PROBS NEAR 50%. GENERALLY SEEMS TO DRY OUT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDTIONAL CONVECTIVE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 74 95 75 / 40 20 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 73 92 76 / 50 50 40 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 72 92 74 / 50 40 40 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 69 88 71 / 50 40 40 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS
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