000
FXUS64 KMRX 131719
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FROST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND. CONSIDER BRINGING FROST
SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
NEAR SATURATED OR ALREADY SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
OVERHEAD SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
MORNING FOG TODAY BEFORE THE SUN CAN HELP DISSIPATE THE SHALLOW
INVERSION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ONCE FOG DEPARTS FROM OUR VALLEYS,
TEMPERATURES WILL ROCKET BACK UPWARDS, REACHING THE FIRST OF THE
THREE HOT DAYS OF THE WEEK. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE JET STREAM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND A SUMMER STRENGTH UPPER
RIDGE SETS UP AND DOMINATES OVER THE SOUTHERN US. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FLIRTING WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
10-13 88(1954) 89(1935) 86(1954) 84(2017)
10-14 87(1954) 87(1881) 85(1954) 85(1954)
10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)
THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUIDANCE DEPICTING
VERY MEAGER CAPE PROFILES.
A PHASED UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT A POLAR FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN US FOR FRIDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WON'T BRING ABOUT MUCH, IF
ANY, PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL USHER IN A BREEZY AND SIGNIFICANT
AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WHOLE REGION. FOR THE TRI-CITIES, THIS IS
RIGHT ON TIME TO EXPERIENCE THE FIRST BOUT OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE
FOR FROST FORMATION. THOSE WITH TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD
CONSIDER BRINGING THEM IN DEFINITELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT ALSO
CONSIDER FRIDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH ALSO CHILLY LOWS, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN LOCALES. TEMPERATURES THEN WILL SLIGHTLY REBOUND GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAINTAIN A BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
STANCE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT TRI
AND TO LESSER EXTENT CHA AGAIN. WILL INCLUDE NO LOWER THAN MVFR
CONDITIONS BOTH SITES FOR NOW, BUT LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...99
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