574
FXUS64 KMRX 062325 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 722 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
- DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER COVERAGE BY
SATURDAY AND ALSO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
CURRENTLY, A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM JET APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS
INITIAL SETUP HAS PUT US IN A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALREADY ONGOING ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH 1,500 J/KG OR HIGHER MLCAPE AND NO SHEAR, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
LIMITED BY LAPSE RATES OF 5.5 C/KM OR LESS. ISOLATED FLOODING ALSO
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR SLOW-MOVING OR REPEATED STORMS. FOR FRIDAY, THE
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA, BUT THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTH. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW LOOKS COMPARABLE TO
TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE. BY SATURDAY, THE SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE EVEN FURTHER INTO
THE AREA, LEADING TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. BASED ON THE CURRENT
DATA, THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE THAN
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACHING NEAR 6 C/KM
AND MLCAPE EXCEEDING 2,000 J/KG. PWATS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9
INCH RANGE. THIS MAY PROVIDE EVEN BETTER COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
BY SUNDAY, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH VARIABLE
INDICATIONS OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE. OVERALL, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
LESS MOISTURE, WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY AS WELL. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT DUE
TO SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A MORE NOTABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES REACHING 6 C/KM TO EVEN 7
C/KM, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE GREATER INSTABILITY. A LOT IS UNCERTAIN
ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS ENVIRONMENT, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE VIS/CIG FORECAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES. ALL SITES HAVE HAD SHOWERS NEARBY, WITHING 5 MILES, BUT
NONE HAVE REPORTED RAIN IN THE OBS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
CONFLICTING SIGNALS. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME
AMOUNT OF REDUCED VIS/CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL HIT TRI WITH MAINLY FOG TRANSITIONING TO LOW CIGS
THROUGH THE MORNING, BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT, WITH
MVFR CIGS AT TYS AND CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 90 72 91 / 20 50 30 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 89 71 89 / 10 40 30 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 88 71 88 / 10 30 30 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 85 67 84 / 20 50 30 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
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