436
FXUS64 KMRX 051135
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 732 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
- COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY IN
THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS OVER AS INSTABILITY HAS PLUMMETED ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHTNING IS VERY SPARSE AND WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.
SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY UP TO 35 MPH. THE LATEST RUN OF CAMS SHOW GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT BECOMING A
LIGHT RAIN BY DAYBREAK. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST HAS GONE UP A
BIT WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTING ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. WITH
SOME DEGREE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, ANY
FLOODING ISSUES OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE MINOR FLOODING IN
TYPICAL SPOTS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA (GUSTS 40 MPH+) WITH 850 MB WINDS PEAKING AROUND 30-35
KNOTS WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION THAT IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. COVE MOUNTAIN HAS BEEN GUSTING
AROUND 40 MPH FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOST MOUNTAIN AND WIND PRONE
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH GUST
RANGE. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY DAYBREAK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OUT.
RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING, ENDING COMPLETELY ACROSS
THE REGION BY NOON. A COOL, DRY AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT WEATHER. FROST
MAY BE A CONCERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS IN THE NORTH AND
THE MOUNTAINS AS SOIL MOISTURE LINGERS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AND A WARMING TREND WILL START WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. AS IT DOES
SO, STEADY RAIN WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND THEN END
AROUND NOON IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR NOT
LONG AFTER, LEADING TO CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS
PIVOTING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND PERHAPS NORTHERLY LATE. A FEW
GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KNOTS TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED POST 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 44 70 45 / 50 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 41 66 42 / 80 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 40 68 42 / 60 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 37 63 39 / 100 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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