250
FXUS64 KMRX 261851
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 244 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES ARE PROBABLE WHEREVER TRAINING OCCURS.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A LOW/MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
IN ADDITION, HIGH PWS (VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES) WILL BE IN
PLACE, WHICH MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS TRAINING WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED FLOODING. IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
TRAINING WILL OCCUR BUT THE CAMS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
HEAVY RAIN AXIS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE SAT/SUN TIMEFRAME. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET ON WHERE TO ISSUE IT AT THIS POINT.
HOPEFULLY THE CAMS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE
STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDEX NEAR 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLIMBING
INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STORMS ALREADY FORMING, BUT LOW
CHANCES FOR THEM TO IMPACT AN AIRPORT. HAVE GONE WITH PROB30
DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD. A SECOND ROUND WILL TRY AND
MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TIMING. IF A STORM DOES IMPACT AN AIRPORT RA OR TSRA IS MOST
LIKELY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 90 73 92 / 10 60 40 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 87 71 88 / 20 80 90 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 86 70 89 / 30 80 80 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 84 68 86 / 30 70 90 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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