973
FXUS64 KMRX 081122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 714 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH WINDS LIKELY OVER THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
CURRENTLY, HURRICANE ISAIAS IS LOCATED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
LOCALLY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET TO
OUR SOUTH. INITIALLY, THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD WITH
ISAIAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT RISES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ALSO SHIFT
NORTH AS ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AFTER LANDFALL
WITH A PROGRESSION RANGING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY, THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASING
EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
EVENING. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, STRONG WINDS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS REMAINS THE LARGEST IMPACT FOR OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE MSLP GRADIENT
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HOWEVER, WARNING-
LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS ANY
SOLUTION HAS 850MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS TO OUR WEST. THE
STRENGTH OF DOWNSLOPING WILL ALSO LIMIT OVERALL RAIN TOTALS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
INSTABILITY WILL STAY LARGELY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, ESPECIALLY IF A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK TRANSPIRES AFTER LANDFALL. HOWEVER, WITH THE
STRENGTH OF 850MB WINDS, SOME DAMAGING WINDS COULD POSSIBLY REACH
THE SURFACE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OR THE PLATEAU. OTHERWISE, MOST
WINDS WILL BE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OR THE MSLP GRADIENT. BY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY PROGRESS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
AND GIVE WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
500MB HEIGHTS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
FOG AND LOW CLOUD ARE LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TRI THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS 10KTS OR LESS.
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUD TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
ARE LITTLE TO NONE, THUS, NO MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 57 83 60 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 57 82 59 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 52 80 56 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS
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