993
FXUS64 KMRX 251842
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND PLATEAU WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LACK
OF OTHER FORCING FOR LIFT. DEVELOPMENT OFF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY.
BETTER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
JET STREAM CROSSES THE AREA, AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 35-40 KT 850 MB WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHEAR,
FAVORING NORTHERN SECTIONS. COMBINED WITH MLCAPE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1000-1500 J/KG, WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS THAT ARE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS A PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEAR THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES BY. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY FOR SEVERE, BUT THE SNYOPTIC FORCING APPEARS TO
BE BETTER. CAN'T RULE OUT A SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY BUT THE FOCUS
WILL REMAIN ON SATURDAY IN OUR MESSAGING FOR NOW.
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING
DRIER AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 100 AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 90 73 90 / 0 10 10 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 90 72 88 / 0 10 10 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 89 72 88 / 0 10 20 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 89 68 85 / 0 20 20 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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