382  
FXUS64 KMRX 192009  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
409 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
 
 
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAS  
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS STILL LOCATED  
OVER EAST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES AT MID AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID  
50S IN THE RAIN TO 60S WHERE THERE HAS BEEN PARTIAL CLEARING. NEW  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND  
CENTRAL VALLEY WITH SMALL SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE COULD  
BECOME NMARGINALLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT  
GETS CUT OFF BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY  
MOVES NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EASTERN KY BY MORNING. THIS  
BRINGS IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP  
INTO THE LOWER 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH  
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST  
TO MID ALANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO PA BY SUNDAY  
MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP  
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES INTO THE  
LOWER 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY  
NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING IN  
THE SOUTHWEST. SNOWFALL WILL START TO ACCUMULATE LATE TONIGHT  
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND NEAR ROAN MOUNTAIN. MOST  
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO BUT MOUNT LECONTE MAY  
HAVE AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
 
 
THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED WITH  
A SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWED BY A NICE PERIOD  
OF RIDGING IN A DRIER REGIME. EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE  
SLIPS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVES BACK NORTH  
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  
INCREASES TO SOME DEGREE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH  
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A SIMILARLY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. IT  
APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OR UPPER LEVEL LOW  
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE  
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COMFORTABLE ONCE AGAIN  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN  
THE 50S.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 54 41 72 / 70 60 10 0  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 51 40 69 / 70 70 30 0  
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 51 40 71 / 70 70 30 0  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 49 38 62 / 60 70 50 10  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
TD  
 
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