430
FXUS64 KMRX 300627
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
227 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
- RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN.
- A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AND IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTH GA/AL. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWEST GA. THE HRRR HAS A BLOB OF RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT WHICH SUGGESTS
THE BOUNDARY IS STALLING. THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE
CENTRAL AL/MS BORDER, THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW OVERNIGHT MAY HELP
BRING THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO
VERY LOW ON FRIDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC AND MOVES UP THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOCALLY WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH DEW POINTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S THERE WILL NOT BE ANY THUNDER. SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH IS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY MORNING
MAY BRING SOME FROST TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL MOVE INTO
CHA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE
INCLUDED IN A TEMPO GROUP, BUT PRIMARILY VFR IS ANTICIPATED. AT
TRI, CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED JUST ABOVE MVFR, WHICH IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CLEARING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
GUSTS WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING AT CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 51 72 50 / 0 10 10 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 48 71 48 / 0 0 10 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 47 72 48 / 0 0 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 41 68 46 / 0 0 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
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