051
FXUS64 KMRX 111044 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
644 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- A FEW REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AGAIN TODAY, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN NOR WIND EXPECTED.
- PIGEON RIVER FORECAST TO CREST IN ACTION STAGE AT NEWPORT THIS
EVENING, LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER MAY FLOOD.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER DURING THE WORK WEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE
IN THE WEEK TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT'S BEEN THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS FINALLY GOING TO PASS ITS CENTRAL AXIS OVERHEAD
TODAY. AS SUCH, SOME WRAPAROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AGAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO, WITH THE SATURATED LOWER THIRD OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.
THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE ANY HIGH WATER COMING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VIA THE RIVERS. THE PIGEON RIVER AT NEWPORT IS FORECAST TO
RISE TO ACTION STAGE BY THIS EVENING THANKS TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS IS NOT A HELENE REPEAT, THANKFULLY,
BUT STILL CAUTION IS WARRANTED NEAR THE RIVER.
OTHERWISE WE EARN ANOTHER MILD OCTOBER WEEK AGAIN WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERN 500 MB RIDGE POWERING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S EACH
DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES. LATE WEEK FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS THERE'S GROWING INDICATIONS
OF A DECENT COLD FRONT COMING TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A PEG OR
TWO. AS OF RIGHT NOW NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS THERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CAUSING
SOME MVFR VIS AND REDUCED CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON DETAILS OF CATEGORY CHANGES, SO THE TAFS
WILL BE KEPT SHORT AND SIMPLE WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME TO CHA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TYS AND TRI WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 57 85 58 / 30 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 60 81 59 / 70 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 58 82 57 / 70 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 59 76 54 / 80 50 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...DGS
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