261
FXUS64 KMRX 181739
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1239 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
- COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
BELOW 0 WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
AGAIN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
CURRENTLY ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES TRYING THEIR
BEST TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING IT'S WAY OFF TO OUR EAST. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEPART INTO MONDAY, ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
STRETCH—FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY—WILL BE DRY BUT
NOTABLY COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD, WITH VALLEY
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES TO THE TEENS, AND SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERSISTENT WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MAY DRIVE
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES, AND CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED, BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY APPEARS DRY, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
COULD RETURN AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS, LIKELY FALLING AS PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN BASED ON PRESENT THERMAL PROFILES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
CYCLE, HOWEVER, THE TYPICAL DIURNAL LULL WITH LIGHTER WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS LULL IN WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FOR
CHA. FOR TOMORROW, TRI IS THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION TO OBSERVE
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS AND HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL FEW/SCT
CLOUDS IN THE AM HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 42 18 40 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 23 39 14 36 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 22 37 13 36 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 19 34 10 31 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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