356
FXUS64 KMRX 311901
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 FOR MOST BY MID-
WEEK.
- OTHER THAN ISOLATED STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT RETURN AREA-WIDE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE
FORECAST LOOKING TO MOST LIKELY WORK OUT AS THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HOT AFTERNOONS WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FIRING
OFF ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS... MUCH LIKE THEY'RE CURRENTLY DOING THIS AFTERNOON.
IT'LL REMAIN A COPY/PASTE FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX'S NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGHEST, AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. IT'S POSSIBLE A
HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE INTRODUCED FOR A FEW COUNTIES LATER IN THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY, WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WE'LL FINALLY HAVE A CHANCE AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS A STRONGER TROUGH WILL TRY AND SUPPRESS THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING OUT FROM IT
WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEKEND
OF SEPTEMBER, THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ALSO TRIES TO MOVE NORTH THE SAME
TIME OF THE FRONT EDGING SOUTH, WHICH MAY BECOME THE NEXT TIME THE
FORECAST AREA SEES CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ONLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS OR
STORM THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS,
NORTHWEST FLOW, AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HUMIDITY
SHOULD ALSO DROP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND 5,000 TO 10,000
FEET AGL WILL PERSIST. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDER REMAIN
POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY TO STAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, PERIODS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT TRI, SO
ANOTHER TEMPO WAS INCLUDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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