385
FXUS64 KMRX 302322
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY PLEASANT TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A WET PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IL/IN TODAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER, MUCH
LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW, THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY UNDER A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE.
DEEP MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY, WITH PW VALUES RISING OVER 2
INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
IN THE MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED AND SUB-SEVERE. A LINE OF
CONVECTION FORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN WEST TN ALONG THE COLD FRONT,
CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND AN UPPER JET STREAK. THE
NAM IS QUITE VIGOROUS IN DEVELPING THIS CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES
MIDDLE TN, BUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA (AROUND MIDNIGHT), IT
WILL LIKELY BE IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AS THE JET STREAK LIFTS INTO EASTERN KY/OH IN
THE EVENING. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT, THE
NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL WILL LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. JOINT
PROBABILITY OF MUCAPE > 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR > 30 KT IS
UNDER 20% IN OUR WESTERN HALF SATURDAY EVENING. THUS, THE SEVERE
RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. FLOODING MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN IF
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS WITH THE MORNING ROUND, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IN THE SAME AREAS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ROUND.
MODEL EVENT-TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (LESS THAN 1 INCH
IN MOST LOCATIONS), BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE LARGER TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FOREAST. WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE AIR MASS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT AT TRI LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP, AND CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD
ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 90 70 85 / 0 0 50 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 89 67 86 / 0 0 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 87 67 84 / 0 0 30 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99
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