806
FXUS64 KMRX 301800
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
200 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
- A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
TO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BECOME QUASI-ZONAL WITH A TROUGH
FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHICH PREVIOUSLY BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE GULF STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
BENEATH THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF AND CAROLINA
COASTLINES, BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND EASTERN AREAS. IF YOU CAN IMAGINE AN INVISIBLE LINE DRAWN FROM
CHATTANOOGA TO BRISTOL, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF SAID LINE. PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIP 0.5" OR GREATER IS AROUND 30-50% IN SW NC AND ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. ELSEWHERE, PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY 25% OR
LESS.
THE ENHANCED TROUGHING AND H5 HEIGHTS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL WILL ALSO TRANSLATE TO OUR COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FROST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
VERY PATCHY CHANCES FOR FROST MAY LINGER IN HIGH ELEVATIONS MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL, HOWEVER, MINOR H5 HEIGHT RISES AND A SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND
BACK INTO THE MID 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TOWARDS A MOSTLY DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS IN
THE OHIO VALLEY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TROUGHING MID-WEEK, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE WHOLE AREA. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ACCUMS GREATER
THAN 0.5" IS AROUND 50-60%. WILL ALSO BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
THIS SYSTEM FOR STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES, BUT MODEL DISCREPANCIES LEAVE
FOR PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 7 TO 12 KTS AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20KTS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON, LIGHTENING TONIGHT. WE WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 72 50 66 / 10 10 50 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 71 48 63 / 0 10 40 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 72 48 64 / 0 10 30 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 68 46 60 / 0 10 30 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS
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