983
FXUS64 KMRX 021847
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 242 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
NORTHEAST TN, SOUTHWEST VA, AND SOUTHWEST NC THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL AND SET UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AN IMPULSE TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THIS HAPPENS. CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FOCUSED AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL
REMAIN DRY.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS DEPICT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 6.5-
7.0 C/KM AND WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS FALLING TO NEAR 8KFT. SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DCAPE BETWEEN
700-1000 J/KG SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH, MLCAPE 500J/KG OR LESS WILL LIMIT
SEVERE CONCERNS. OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DRIER
AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
50S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS.
WE FINALLY SEE A PATTERN SHIFT TO DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN
TOMORROW. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES AS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AXIS MAKES
AN ATTEMPT TO EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT CHA/TYS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AT 5KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER IN VICINITY OF
TRI FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR
IF A STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. A BRIEF PROB30 IS USED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TIME OF GREATEST PROBABILITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 80 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS
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