619
FXUS64 KMRX 252325
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 723 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH COOL
MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGHS.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S TO UPPER 20S ARE ALSO
EXPECTED MOST DAYS BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR ANOTHER EXCELLENT AUTUMN DAY. THERE ISN'T
MUCH CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FORECAST MORE OR LESS
STAYS THE SAME. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. ONE CONSIDERATION IS THAT WE
WILL HAVE EFFICIENT MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT RH'S TO FALL INTO THE
25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. FORTUNATELY FOR US, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THIS WEATHER
PATTERN.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUR
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE
EASTERN US. UPSTREAM, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN TO INCREASE.
THIS TREND OF AN EARLIER WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE & SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SPLIT SUNDAY WILL BE THE TRICK AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE THE TREAT. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE,
HALLOWEEN WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT. WORST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. IN
FACT, THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL HELP SET THE MOOD FOR A GREAT NIGHT OF
TRICK OR TREATING!
SUNDAY, THE TRICK, WILL BE A RATHER CRUMMY DAY AS THE SLUG OF
MOISTURE TIED TO THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS AN
INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SUNDAY ACROSS
GUIDANCE. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A TON OF RAIN, BUT IT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE TO GET A TENTH OR TWO AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE LOOK INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
OVERALL, QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT TRI WITH MVFR MAINTAINED IN THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 45 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 71 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BW
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