133
FXUS64 KMRX 231835
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 233 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL EXIT THIS EVENING, WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATE TONIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK.
- A HOT AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS NE TN THIS AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CREATING SOME WEAK, SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER,
WHICH HAS REMAINED BROKEN TO OVERCAST. ONCE THE TROUGH CLEARS OUR
AREA AROUND SUNSET, THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER/CLEAR. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DROP TO CALM IN
MOST SPOTS, ALLOWING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SIGNALS OF FOG, SO IT WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS CLEARING
OUT THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE MAIN VORT MAX WITH THIS TROUGH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH, AS
DOES MUCH OF THE PRECIP, BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVE FEATURES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW, THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DETAILS ARE STILL
TOO MUCH IN FLUX FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORM CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK SIGNAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT COMBINED SHEAR/CAPE. THIS WILL OF COURSE BEAR WATCHING
AS WE GET CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA, WITH HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY, AND MID/UPPER 90S FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS LIFTED TO VFR, BUT SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS REMAIN UNDER 3 KFT. EXPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
BUT THE SCATTERED CLOUD COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AROUND SUNSET, AND THE
CLEARING MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. TRI IS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT
TO FOG, SO MVFR VIS WILL BE MENTIONED WITH AN IFR TEMPO. CANNOT
RULE OUT FOG AT TYS AND CHA, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 84 66 88 / 0 0 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 83 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 83 62 87 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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