489
FXUS64 KMRX 121726
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
- COOLER TODAY, WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
- COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, GETTING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
CURRENTLY A CHILLY DAY OUT THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30 OR 40'S
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND. CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY
CLEARED OUT, AND THE SUN WILL BATTLE AGAINST THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
WE'LL LIKELY END UP AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
AND INCREASING HEIGHTS IN THE MID LEVELS.
WE TAKE A DRAMATIC TURN BACK TOWARDS WINTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL BRING WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL GET
MUCH COLDER. WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP FAST ENOUGH THAT IF THIS
IS AN OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE WE COULD SEE A BRIEF SWITCHOVER TO
SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL A
BIT OF A WAYS OUT, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HORSESHOE OF THE APPALACHIANS, SOUTHWEST VA, OVER
INTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
COLD TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LIKELY DROPPING WELL BELOW
FREEZING. SO ANYONE WHO GOT AMBITIOUS TO START A GARDEN EARLY THIS
YEAR WILL NEED TO KEEP THESE COLD TEMPERATURES IN MIND NEXT WEEK.
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY BEGIN ON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION AND WE SHOULD BE SKC IN WITHIN
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAFS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT WHEN WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MUCH CALMER. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW EXPECT WINDS TO PICK
BACK UP, BUT LESS GUSTY COMPARED TO TODAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
MORNING RAIN TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW NORTH
OF KNOXVILLE WILL END OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OR SO AS THE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION STEADILY MOVES EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER NOT
LONG AFTER. VFR SKIES THEREAFTER WITH WINDS STEADILY WEAKENING,
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE CALM UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 66 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 63 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 34 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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