394
FXUS64 KMRX 091144
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 737 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
- HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE IMPACTS
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS THIS WEEKEND. THE STORM
WILL LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WESTERN MOST PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. THE REMNANTS OF THIS STORM WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN
AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS WEEKEND.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE HIGH WINDS
AND POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LIMIT QPF THERE.
HERE ARE THE MORE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: SOME TROPICAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE PLATEAU (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN), SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE PLATEAU WILL AID
WITH THE LIFT AND POTENTIAL BANDING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGH WINDS POTENTIAL: THE FIRST CORRIDOR OF HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
EXISTS ACROSS SE TN AND IN AND AROUND THE CHATTANOOGA AREA. SINCE
ISASIA'S LOW IS MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THE THREAT OF GUSTS OF
60 MPH HAS DIMINISHED SOME, HOWEVER, GUSTS OF 50 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LOOKOUT AND SIGNAL MOUNTAINS.
THE SECOND CORRIDOR AND MAIN CORRIDOR OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE ALONG
THE EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE REFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE WEDGE
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ISAISA LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS.
MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL
HIGH WINDS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH TO START AT 06Z (2 AM SATURDAY
MORNING)
FOR THE REST OF EAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA: SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS QUITE LIMITED. INSTABILITY IS
LOW AND MAINLY ELEVATED ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AS IT BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RETURN A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH NO IMPACTS. PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE THE TIMING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACHES
OUR SITES FROM THE SOUTH. CHA SHOULD BE THE ONLY SITE THAT SEES
ANY SENSIBLE IMPACT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE'VE ADDED RAIN WITH
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS TO ADDRESS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ADVANCING
NORTHWARD. WE HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
OF THE TAF AT CHA.
TRI AND TYS WILL LIKELY SEE IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS INCLUDED WITH THE
18Z UPDATE LATER TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 61 72 63 / 0 90 100 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 60 73 63 / 0 60 80 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 59 71 62 / 0 50 80 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 57 67 61 / 0 20 90 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BRADLEY-
EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-WEST POLK.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS
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