172
FXUS64 KMRX 160523
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
- RAIN ENDING THIS EVENING.
- DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THIS COMING WEEK. NEXT RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR THURSDAY AND ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH AL/GA. STORM TOTAL PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION ALREADY HAS SOME POCKETS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES MAINLY
IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY MID
AFTERNOON, RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND SHOWERY, THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN WILL END
COMPLETELY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM EST. WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DECREASE AT THE FEW WIND TOWERS AVAILABLE THERE. WINDS ARE ALSO
COMING DOWN ON THE VAD WIND PROFILE RADAR PRODUCT. WIND GUSTS ABOVE
40 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT A FEW OF THE MORE WIND PRONE SPOTS BUT THOSE
HIGHER GUSTS MAY NOT HAVE BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AS FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER AS RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE PATTERN. BY WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY,
INCREASING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS CHANCES INCREASE FOR A SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. HIGHS THIS WORKWEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG HAS BEEN
LESS CONSISTENT, BUT PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT TRI. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES. IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR ARE
FORECAST AT ALL SITES BEFORE NOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BUT PRETTY LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 43 69 55 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 40 67 52 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 40 65 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 35 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page