498
FXUS64 KMRX 072356
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
- MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND LIGHTNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CURRENTLY, THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT IS
FOCUSING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
PWS ARE FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. BEST THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THE
850-300MB MEAN WIND IS ALMOST PARALLEL WITH THE WEST TO EAST
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN KY TO SW VA. THIS AREA HAS THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AS THIS BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PLATEAU/NE TN, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT
THERE. THE LATEST MPD ALSO ILLUSTRATES THIS THREAT OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE STORM THREAT IS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WHERE DCAPES ARE THE HIGHEST WITH VALUES OF 800-
900. ELSE WHERE DCAPES ARE RATHER LIMTED WITH VALUES OF 400-700.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO QUITE LIMITED LESS THAN 5.5 DEGREES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
DEPICT THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH QUITE WELL.
REFS AND HREF DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NOTICED THE LATEST RADAR
SHOWS AN CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA WHICH MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING. HOWEVER, THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. OVERALL, AIRMASS CHANGES VERY LITTLE SO
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON'S
ENVIRONMENT.
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A SERIES OF JET STREAK/SHORT-WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES, OHIO VALLEY, INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AS WELL. EVENTUALLY A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST WITH SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION. STORM CHANCES AT
ALL TERMINALS ARE LOW FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR TRI. NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AS BAD
AS LAST NIGHT SINCE NONE OF THE TERMINALS GOT SIGNIFICANT RAIN
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED NEAR THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 72 90 / 20 40 20 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 89 71 87 / 30 50 40 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 88 70 87 / 40 60 30 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 87 68 85 / 40 40 40 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...MCD
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