144
FXUS64 KMRX 140555
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
- WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
FOR THURSDAY, DRY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT SO NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20S.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENDING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING INTO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
GULF MOISTURE RETURN LIMITED. MOSTLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST SOUTHWEST
AND SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR GREATER MOISTURE RETURN. A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL MOVE ALONG THE UPPER FLOW TO
PRODUCE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE BUT EXPECT GREATEST PROBABILITY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
CHA MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 47 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 45 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 44 78 54 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 41 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS
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