023
FXUS64 KMRX 062352
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
752 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 734 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT GUSTY
WINDS.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MIDWEEK WITH STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
CURRENTLY STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST
VA AS WE REMAIN UNDER A STRONG RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES.
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH, BUT IT'S JUST ENOUGH TO HELP
ORGANIZE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. ATMOSPHERE OUT THERE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA) IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURSTS FROM COLLAPSING STORMS AND SMALL HAIL.
WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO
RUN OVER THE SAME COUNTIES TODAY. BUT AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER AND/OR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON THIS SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
FOR MONDAY, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 40. AGAIN, STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRODUCING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS FOR THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVES AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY, RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CENTERED NEAR OKLAHOMA. MONDAY WILL HAVE COOLER
TEMPS (ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WARM) WITH HIGHS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DISSIPATING AND WILL BE OVER COMPLETELY IN
AN HOUR OR SO. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TRI. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR DENSE FOG BUT IFR SEEMS LIKELY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TOMORROW AND FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER
TO TYS AND CHA. TYS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR
NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 91 70 91 / 20 40 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 89 67 90 / 10 50 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 89 66 89 / 10 40 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 83 61 86 / 20 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...MCD
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