351
FXUS64 KMRX 151744
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1244 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
- A FEW FLURRIES, AND MAYBE A STRAY SNOW SHOWER, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- BITTER WIND CHILLS THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
VALUES TEENS ACROSS THE VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN
THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD DECK AT AROUND 4 TO 5K FEET REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. A FEW FLURRIES ARE MANAGING
TO WORK THERE WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE PRIOR TO EVAPORATION. ISOLATED
FLURRIES, AND PERHAPS A STRAY SNOW SHOWER, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND ALL WINTERY
ACTIVITY CEASES. VERY COLD CHILLS WE BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT, WITH VALUES FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
PLEASE BE WELL PREPARED IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS, EVEN
THEN IT'S BEST TO LIMIT ANY TIME SPENT OUTDOORS AS HYPOTHERMIA IS A
REAL CONCERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS
NORTH OF I-40, AND UPPER TEENS SOUTH OF 40, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPS IN THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS.
WE SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THEN, INCREASING POPS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS ALL RAIN ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS,
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
40. ALL RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, NORTHEAST TN, AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VA.
FOR THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS, PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN SNOW, BUT ONLY AT OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
(ABOVE 5000 TO 6000 FEET). AT THESE ELEVATIONS, A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST HREF PROBS SHOW AROUND 70 TO 80% PROBS FOR AT
LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW AT THESE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE CHANCE FOR 3
INCHES DROPS DOWN TO AROUND 40%. AGAIN, ONLY ABOVE 5000 FEET.
ELEVATIONS FROM 3000 TO 5000 FEET ACROSS THE EAST TN AND SOUTHWEST
VA MOUNTAINS, HAVE LOW TO MODERATE PROBS TO SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES.
PRECIP MOVES OUT SATURDAY AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT, TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY
NIGHT, BACK TO TEENS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
LOW VFR BKN/OVC CLOUDS AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 15-20KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
CLEAR TONIGHT ALONGSIDE LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 21 51 35 47 / 0 10 70 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 18 48 36 45 / 10 20 80 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 18 46 33 44 / 10 20 80 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 15 44 31 43 / 0 10 70 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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