802
FXUS64 KMRX 130624
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
224 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY, LESSENING TOMORROW. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING.
- THOUGH CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG GUSTY WIND
OR TWO IN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A LOW PM CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
MOST RAIN HAS EITHER DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT OR STEADILY
WEAKENED, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OR RE- DEVELOP INTO THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING IS UNLIKELY.
HREF/REFS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A LPMM (A TYPE OF
PROBABILITY MATCHING MEAN) BULLS-EYE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
MARYVILLE DOWN THROUGH POLK COUNTY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NOW, CAMS HAVE NOT BEEN NAILING LOCATIONS WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, SO SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY IS STILL QUITE HIGH. MY CONCERN THOUGH
IS WITH OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION, IT MAKES MORE SENSE TO KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH AROUND FOR 1 MORE DAY AND SEE HOW THE STORMS PLAY OUT.
RATHER HAVE THE WATCH OUT AND CANCEL LATER ON THEN TO CANCEL NOW
ONLY TO HAVE ADDITIONAL ISSUES TOMORROW. A COUPLE DAYS AGO IT WAS
COCKE AND GREENE COUNTIES THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, THEN
KNOXVILLE HAD A ROUND OF URBAN FLOODING A FEW HOURS AGO, AND
MEANWHILE OTHER COUNTIES HAVE SEEN FLOODING TO A LESSER EXTENT.
IF THE STORMS DO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THOSE COUNTIES
HAVE SEEN LESS RAIN THE LAST FEW DAYS THAN ELSEWHERE. CONTRAST
MONROE AND MCMINN COUNTIES TO PORTIONS OF MEIGS, LOUDON, ON OVER TO
BLOUNT AND NORTH. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (AKA THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
NEEDED IN A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF TIME TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING) IS
QUITE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EVEN MEIGS (1 TO 2 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS), BUT STILL QUITE HIGH IN MONROE AND MCMINN (2.5 TO 3
INCHES NEEDED IN 3 HOURS). SO, DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS SET UP WILL
DETERMINE HOW QUICK FLOODING CAN OCCUR. ULTIMATELY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IF IT RAINS HARD ENOUGH LONG ENOUGH THEN EVEN THE DRIER
COUNTIES WILL FLOOD. BECAUSE OF THIS I HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLOOD WATCH INTO THIS EVENING AND SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT.
THE CUTOFF LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAINY MISERY THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WON'T CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HEADING WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
BUT AT LEAST TOMORROW IT WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY, AND THUS ITS
INFLUENCE OVER EAST TENNESSEE WILL BE INCREASINGLY LESSER. STILL
LIKELY WON'T BE AN ENTIRELY DRY DAY, BUT ANY FLOOD IMPACTS WOULD BE
INCREDIBLY ISOLATED, IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. I WOULD EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE COVERAGE TO BE SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE, AND IDEALLY ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM NORTH WILL HAVE BETTER STORM MOTIONS.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY AND
BETWEEN THAT AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES TICK BACK UPWARDS A
TAD. NOT A HEAT WAVE, BUT IT'LL CERTAINLY GET US BACK INTO THE
REGULAR HOT AND MUGGY PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE WE'RE
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS, THERE'LL BE DAILY STORM CHANCES,
PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, AS IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WILL SEE A MIX OF MAINLY VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY TYS AND TRI. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION FOR TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. BY AFTERNOON, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30 THUNDER GROUPS AT CHA AND TYS,
WITH THUNDER CHANCES A BIT LOWER AT TRI. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE DECREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 70 84 70 / 70 50 60 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 68 86 69 / 80 20 50 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 68 86 68 / 90 20 40 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 64 86 62 / 50 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...99
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