550
FXUS64 KMRX 122359
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
759 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 751 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN, AND A FEW STORMS, ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST TN
INTO SOUTHWEST VA. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
- IF YOU'VE BEEN WAITING ON SUMMER, IT ARRIVES THIS COMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. TOMORROW, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THOUGH THE RISK IS
LOW, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHWEST VA. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND NOW INCLUDE THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR THIS MARGINAL RISK IS STILL PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY. LIKE THE LREF IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, THE HREF RETAINS THE ROUGHLY 40 TO 60% PROBS OF
SEEING AT LEAST 500 J/KG CAPE. THE DRIVER OF THIS LOWER
INSTABILITY ARE THE DEWPOINTS, MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 50S. IT'S HARD TO GET SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS
THIS LOW. IF WE DO SEE ANY STRONG STRONGER STORMS, ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
ASIDE FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, WINDS ACROSS THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK BREEZY/GUSTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS FROM
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WE SEE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUNSHINE RETURNING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TAD CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES RAMP UP THIS COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING RETURNS. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S LOOK LIKELY BY
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY BUT MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE PRECIP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE. WE MAY END UP WITH A SITUATION WHERE OUR NORTHERN AREAS SEE
SOME PRECIP BUT WE ARE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST AT TIMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NW COINCIDING WITH
A FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TRI
AND TYS. PROB30 ADDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 82 53 76 / 0 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 79 49 72 / 0 40 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 79 48 72 / 0 40 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 74 45 67 / 0 70 30 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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