610
FXUS64 KMRX 171824
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
- COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS PROVIDING ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL DAY IN EAST TN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT,
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST, AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS AN UPPER JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE N-NE ACROSS THE MS
RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL TONIGHT AS THE SW FLOW
BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS, CONFINED MAINLY BELOW 850 MB, AND REMAINS SO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEASUREABLE PRECIP IS NOT LIKELY, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SW 40-50 KT 850 MB WINDS INCREASE AND MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAINS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW IN MOST POPLUATED ELEVATIONS,
ACCORDING TO THE NBM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
LITTLE MORE FORCING AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH/VORT MAX. QPF SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW
700 MB, BUT THERE COULD BE A ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AGAIN, THERE COULD BE GUSTY SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND QPF APPEARS
LIGHT DUE TO ITS SHALLOW MOISTURE, WEAK INSTABILITY, AND A RATHER
FLAT SW FLOW ALOFT.
A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPIN OFF A SHORTAVE
TROUGH THAT ROTATES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEY
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT CHA, POTENTIALLY
AT TYS AS WELL BUT THE LATTER LOCATION IS MORE LIKELY TO HAVE
SUB-20 KT GUSTS OCCURRING LESS FREQUENTLY. TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT CHA AROUND
09Z, WITH TYS FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER. TRI WILL HAVE LOW VFR
CIGS SPREADING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS
AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 68 59 77 / 0 10 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 65 58 74 / 0 10 50 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 64 57 72 / 0 10 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 62 53 69 / 0 10 50 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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