185
FXUS64 KMRX 251123
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION. POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRYING AND COOLING
TREND IS SET TO BEGIN. A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST, CENTERING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER. UNDER THE UPPER LOW,
COASTAL STORM IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. OUR AREA WILL BE SITUATED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHEN ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE BARRELS EAST FROM
CA AND THE DESERT SW. OF COURSE, THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES THIS FAR
OUT AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN AND WHEN.
UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
FOR END OF SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER. A VERY WELCOMED THING TO
THOSE TIRED OF DAILY STORMS AND RECORD SETTING HOT TEMPERATURES. FAR
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING MAY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING IN,
WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. 40S FOR LOWS COULD SINK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS RIDGING
IS ALLOWED TO EDGE A BIT MORE EAST FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE COASTAL
UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR EAST, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN INCREASING EACH DAY
STARTING ON MONDAY. VALLEY TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE MVFR CIGS AT CHA WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
TRI BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL LOOK TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE RIGHT NOW. OTHER THAN THE LOWER CIGS AT CHA EARLY, WILL
HAVE A VFR FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS OR LESS DURING THE
DAY, THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 55 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 51 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 51 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 44 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page