934
FXUS64 KMRX 011737
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY, A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
EARLY MORNING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN, HAVE LIMITED
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT
HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FURTHER WEST ACROSS ALABAMA.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 SAW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EARLIER
TODAY. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS AND DCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60
MPH AND 0.5 TO 1 INCH HAIL.
ON TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES DOMINANT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CLOSE LOW ROTATES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THIS TROUGH WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT CREATING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5-8 C/KM AND WBZ HEIGHTS
AROUND 8 KFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO CHA SOON AND REMAIN MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. PROB30 FOR MVFR AT TYS AND TRI IF THUNDERSTORMS
PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AFTER
THE RAIN AND STORMS HAVE ENDED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
WEST, TRANSITIONING TO NORTH, 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
OUTSIDE OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 81 59 80 / 40 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 80 56 79 / 20 20 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 80 55 79 / 20 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 77 51 80 / 10 30 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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