856
FXUS64 KMRX 201121
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 716 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY MONDAY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE BUT CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY AND INTO EARLY
TOMORROW, AS THE AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
HUMIDITY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW, WILL SEND IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOMORROW,
WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE DAY. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG, WILL BE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA OF THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
A SECOND AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW, WILL IMPACT
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR STORMS, AS WELL
AS CAPE, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. PW
VALUES WILL BE RETURNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBILITY MAY BE HEIGHTENED. WPC HIGHLIGHTS THE REGION WITH EITHER
A MRGL OR SLGT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. FACTORS POSSIBLY WORKING
AGAINST THE SEVERITY OF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE, HOW
WORKED OVER WE MAY BECOME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
ACTIVITY, AND IF ANY RECOVERY CAN OCCUR FROM THAT. A SLIVER OF A
MRGL RISK FROM SPC CURRENTLY COVERS THE VERY NORTHERN PLATEAU FOR
DAY 3 AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
FOLLOWING MONDAY, PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK
UNDER TROUGHINESS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES, AS A RESULT, WILL HOLD STEADY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN SUB 70S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE PERIOD. A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS CAN BE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. AS IT APPROACHES CHA MID-DAY, DRYING LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD PROMOTE THIS TO BE PRIMARILY VIRGA. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY MAKES IT TO THE
SURFACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 68 88 73 / 0 0 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 64 90 72 / 0 0 20 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 63 89 72 / 0 0 30 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 59 89 68 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
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