810  
FXUS64 KMRX 071741  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 18Z AVIATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 
2. LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS OF CONCERN DUE TO SATURATED SOILS  
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE  
ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
TODAY  
 
CURRENTLY, EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER WEST  
TENNESSEE WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE  
BERMUDA HIGH ALSO CONTINUES TO BE NOTABLY STRONG, KEEPING THE REGION  
IN A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME,  
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING THE MAIN LARGER SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST. AS  
SUCH, DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL ALL  
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION, INITIALLY  
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY, THE  
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE  
OVERALL. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 5.5 C/KM, RATHER  
THAN 6 C/KM WITH MLCAPE STILL FORECAST TO REACH AT OR ABOVE 2,000  
J/KG IN SOME PLACES. NEVERTHELESS, LOCALIZED DCAPE VALUES OF NEAR  
800 J/KG POINT TOWARDS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW  
STRONGER STORMS. REGARDING THE FLOODING CONCERNS, SOIL CONDITIONS IN  
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SATURATED  
EARLY THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT  
HREF/CAM RUN SHOWS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY LESSENED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION  
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. WITH ALL OF THESE  
FACTORS IN MIND, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE  
MESSAGED, BUT THE COVERAGE CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH  
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH. THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE WITH  
A LATER UPDATE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ISSUANCE OF ONE ACROSS  
ALL OF THE AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED ENOUGH FOR CONCERN,  
IF GIVEN ENOUGH COVERAGE.  
 
TONIGHT  
 
BY TONIGHT, THE GENERAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING  
COVERAGE IN THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SOME CAMS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL  
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT  
ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE MINIMAL. IN ANY CASE, THESE INDICATIONS  
WERE INCORPORATED IN POPS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY IN SEVERAL  
PLACES AGAIN DUE TO THE ASSUMPTION OF RECENT RAINFALL.  
 
BW  
   
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES INTO  
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.  
 
2. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY,  
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD ON MONDAY MORNING, A MASSIVE UPPER  
RIDGING IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS, WITH A WEAK  
NORTH-TO-SOUTH UPPER TROUGH LOOSELY PARALLELING THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE  
MICHIGAN, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD  
ACROSS THE PLAINS, INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW  
CONTINUES INTO OUR REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S UP AND  
DOWN THE VALLEY IN THE CWA.  
 
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, OUR AREA STAYS KIND OF STATUS QUO  
WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS SAME AIRMASS, AS THE SURFACE LOW  
MOVES EAST AND THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD US.  
BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SAGGED INTO THE AREA,  
GIVING MORE OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  
 
LATER IN THE PERIOD, EVENTUALLY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON  
THROUGH, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION  
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS WELL AS THE RAIN CHANCES LOOKING TO SHUT  
DOWN TEMPORARILY.  
 
FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT, LOOKING LIKE A SLIGHTLY LESS TREND  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN CLIMBING AGAIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY AS THE  
FRONT GETS CLOSER. THE SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO  
TEMPORARILY END NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE  
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  
 
GM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN AND THEN PROPAGATING INTO THE VALLEY. MOSTLY VFR  
CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN STORMS, AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR  
CONDITIONS AROUND 08/1200Z AT TRI AND TYS.  
 
GC  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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