087
FXUS64 KMRX 110519
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
OVERALL, THE CAMS HAVE DONE A VERY POOR JOB OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18
HOURS. THIS MORNING'S ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEREN'T MODELED AT
ALL UNTIL THE 10/11Z HRRR RUNS STARTED COMING IN, EVEN WITH THE
ACTIVITY HAVING BEEN ON RADAR FOR NUMEROUS HOURS. THIS GIVES ME VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE CONVECTION UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW DAYS AGO MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED, BROAD, SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR AREA. WHILE THIS SWATH IS STILL LOOSELY SHOWN BY THE
12Z HRRR, IT'S NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS A FEW DAYS AGO AND THE
TIMING IS DIFFERENT. THE PREVIOUS WINDOW FOR THE GREATEST FLOOD
POTENTIAL WAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BOTTOM LINE, THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BUILD AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND
AS REPEATED WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROLL THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO SEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES. WHILE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME, THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ALSO, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED FOR AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT A FEW ISOLATED AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ONCE WE SEE WHICH AREAS
RECEIVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW, IT WILL GIVE US
A MUCH BETTER IDEA ON WHAT AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FLOODING
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
BEYOND SUNDAY, MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A WETTER MONDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF A CUTOFF LOW ROTATING OVER OUR REGION. ISOLATED
FLOODING COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IF WE DO RECEIVE THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SEVERAL INCHES, THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT FROM MIDWEEK AND BEYOND BUT DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY GIVEN SITE IS
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL CARRY VCSH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND TRY TO TIME PERIODS OF THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
STORMS WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 THUNDER GROUPS, BUT THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THESE TIMES AS WELL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER, A MORE PERSISTENT
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT TRI LATER TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 87 70 84 / 60 90 80 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 85 69 84 / 70 80 70 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 84 69 84 / 70 90 70 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 82 65 82 / 70 80 40 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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