330
FXUS64 KMRX 141139
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
639 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
- SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH FOR
THE PLATEAU AND VALLEY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
UPDATED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY, BOTH THE HRRR AND
THE RRFS DEPICT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FORMING UNDERNEATH THE DEEP
TROUGH, WITH SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES IN THE DGZ SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW IN THE COLD ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE'S
BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A MOISTURE
CONNECTION BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN, HELPING PROVIDE MOISTURE IN AN
OTHERWISE DRIER ENVIRONMENT. SHARP REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS IS POSSIBLE UNDER THESE SNOW SHOWERS,
THOUGH THEY ARE BRIEF. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE SHOULD THESE SNOW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
CURRENTLY, TROUGHING IS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
DUE TO AN UPSTREAM JET IN EXCESS OF 160 KTS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH IS A WEAKER JET, AROUND 110 TO 120 KTS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS ALSO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. ALSO DURING THIS TIME, THE DOWNSTREAM JET WILL
APPROACH WITH OUR REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION. DIRECT
AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL JET CIRCULATIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS RAIN WITH TRANSITIONS TO SNOW BEFORE AND NEAR SUNSET. BASED
ON THE LATEST DATA, MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALREADY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THIS
OCCURS SOON AFTER WITH MOISTURE EXITING THE PLATEAU EARLIER TONIGHT.
LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE DURING THE EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BASED ON THESE CONSIDERATIONS, SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PLACES
IN AND NEAR THE SMOKIES. MOISTURE WILL LARGELY EXIT BY THE EARLY
MORNING WITH 20 TO 25 KTS OF NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING SHAPE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY, TROUGHING WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTH. SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE, BUT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -12 TO -14 CELSIUS, HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST. A MUCH COLDER NIGHT IS ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO THE
SUBSIDENCE AND RECENT CAA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS DO STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND THE VERTICAL PROFILE. TEMPERATURES AROUND 850MB LOOK TO
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BELOW, MEANING
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS LESS TRUE FOR PLACES
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, WHICH ARE THE MORE LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS, FOLLOWING THE ONE IN THE NEAR-TERM. AFTERWARDS, PERSISTENT
TROUGHING AND AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING WITH SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
SHARP COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE, AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AMONGST A
PREDOMINATE MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
IMPACT KTRI TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 23 36 21 / 80 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 20 31 18 / 90 60 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 20 32 18 / 90 50 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 19 27 13 / 80 80 40 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR RUSSELL-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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