676  
FXUS64 KMRX 090639  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
239 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
1. OTHER THAN LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, TODAY AND  
TONIGHT WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER.  
 
TODAY  
 
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE  
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER  
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SAME TIME,  
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH FURTHER REDUCTION IN MOISTURE, THIS WILL LIMIT  
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY, OUTSIDE OF MAYBE THE MOUNTAINS AND  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ULTIMATELY, THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE  
PATTERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN  
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.  
 
TONIGHT  
 
OVERNIGHT, THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND  
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. BY THIS TIME, THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH WITH RECENT CAA AND  
DRIER AIR PROMOTING NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, LIKELY  
REACHING INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
2. NEXT WEEK, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
 
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE  
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ANOTHER DEEPENING CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG  
THE NORTHERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL  
HAVE ALSO MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH, BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL  
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MILD CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH, BUT MOST PLACES WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL STILL BE NEARLY  
STATIONARY BUT WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN  
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES SPREADING FURTHER NORTH. STILL, THESE  
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN FURTHER HEADING INTO MONDAY, BEFORE IT  
SLOWLY PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD  
TO FURTHER MOISTURE ADVECTION, ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE  
REGION. DURING THIS TIME, RAIN CHANCES ARE A LOT MORE WIDESPREAD,  
GIVEN THE PATTERN. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE LIMITED AND  
INHIBIT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
 
BY TUESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE  
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SIMILAR  
TO MONDAY. ALSO, THE FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS DO LOOK TO PROVIDE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION, BUT THE PATTERN WILL NOT  
PROMOTE MUCH ORGANIZATION OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. BY WEDNESDAY,  
THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING  
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WILL  
LEAD TO THE START OF A WARMING TREND WITH THE REGION SEEING MORE OF  
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE LARGELY EXITED THE AREA WITH VERY  
LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. THE MAIN AVIATION  
IMPACT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWING THIS RAIN. BASED  
ON THE LATEST TRENDS, ALL 3 SITES HAVE A DECENT CHANCE TO DROP TO  
MVFR OR LESS BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW LONG  
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST. REGARDLESS, ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO  
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND 5,000  
FEET AGL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY AT  
AROUND 10 KTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE VERY LIMITED.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 55 72 56 / 10 10 30 40  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 50 72 55 / 10 0 20 30  
OAK RIDGE, TN 75 50 73 54 / 10 0 10 20  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 42 73 51 / 20 0 10 20  
 
 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...BW  
LONG TERM....BW  
AVIATION...BW  
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