043
FXUS64 KMRX 141129
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 727 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- THERE ARE LIMITED CHANCES PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND SE
CONUS AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED OVER OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MONDAY HELPED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT, BUT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING FEWER CLOUDS, MORE
INSOLATION, AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS MAKE A RUN AT RECORDS
BOTH DAYS. LOW RH VALUES WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
INTERESTS, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25-35% RANGE BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT FOR THE MOST PART SW WINDS WILL
NOT BE HIGHER THAN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE.
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT
WILL STILL BE VERY WARM. THE NBM HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES, WHICH ARE NOW IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE LATE THU/EARLY THU NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, BUT OVERALL
MODEL/ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY WILL BE TO OUR WEST. SOME WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE WEST, BUT IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW
MUCH WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERING ANY EXPECTATIONS FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRUDENT FOR NOW.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK FRIDAY BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST APPROACHING RECORDS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS
THAT COULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA AS IT MOVES EAST, BUT
THESE DETAILS ARE STILL IN FLUX SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE MAY SEE. IT DOES LOOK A BIT COOLER AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 20KTS MOST LIKELY AT KTYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 59 86 60 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 57 86 58 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 55 84 58 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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