052
FXUS64 KMRX 052353
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
753 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
- STORM CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGH THIS WEEK, NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT
ANY PARTICULAR DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY CENTERED NEAR IL/IN
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IS ALREADY GETTING ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH GOOD INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH CAPE AROUND 2K
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN
STRONGER STORMS. WITH A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL, LARGE HAIL WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LOCALLY WITH
PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND WEAK STEERING FLOW. CAMS SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, MAYBE EVEN
EARLY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET.
A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE OVER THE REGION MON/TUES
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIFT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
THE REGION IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BY THU/FRI, A BROAD
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WIDESPREAD MOSTLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR
90.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING, BUT IT
IS MORE LIKELY THAT EARLIER CONVECTION SETTLED THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THE DAY. TONIGHT PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY, DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW DENSE
AT EACH TERMINAL AHEAD OF TIME. TOMORROW ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PROB30S FOR ALL SITES.
LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF STRONG TS DRIVEN GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 90 72 90 / 30 70 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 90 71 88 / 30 70 50 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 90 70 88 / 30 60 40 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 89 68 86 / 30 70 50 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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