814
FXUS64 KMRX 041909
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2023
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS
IN THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
MORE CLOUD COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY! ALWAYS
NEAT TO SEE THE CUMULUS CLOUDS CURL IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE MOUNTAINS UP INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CIRRUS
DEBRIS FROM STORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS BEGINNING TO
STREAM IN OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS PROVIDED US WITH THE DRY WARM
WEATHER WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND THE FIRST REAL COLD FRONT OF FALL APPROACHES OUR
AREA. WHILE TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SOME SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SPOTS.
2. MAJOR COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND.
DISCUSSION:
WE START THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL LIKELY SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. SOME
MODEL/ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST LIMITED CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MAY
BE AVAILABLE, SO A FEW AREAS MAY HEAR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF AND/OR NORTHERN PLATEAU AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. QPF STILL LOOKS LIMITED WITH MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN EXPECTED TO GET LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/NE US REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME INTO MID WEEK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL COMMON, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE PATCHY FROST IN A FEW COLDER SPOTS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR MORE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL/ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND AT SOME POINT DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VERY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING AND THE EXPECTED VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY
SHORT WAVE TO WORK WITH, WILL GO WITH THE DRY NBM FORECAST DURING
THE ENTIRE SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2023
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES, VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT CHA AND TYS. PUT MVFR VISIBILITY IN AGAIN
FOR TRI BETWEEN 9-13Z FOR BRIEF PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. FOG MAY
BE PRESENT ELSEWHERE NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 82 65 78 / 0 10 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 83 63 76 / 0 10 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 82 63 76 / 0 10 20 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 80 59 72 / 0 0 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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