613
FXUS64 KMRX 261730
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
- COLD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON.
- EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, AND IT WILL REMAIN COLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTER COLD IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WE START THE PERIOD IN THE DEEP FREEZE, AND THE MAIN STORY OF
THIS WEEK CAN BE SUMMED UP IN ONE WORD. COLD.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR
AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
BEING SQUEEZED OUT AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE ARCTIC AIR MASSES, BUT
THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND THAT IS STILL
AROUND WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY AT TIMES, AND ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO
AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF E TN AND SW VA. WILL KEEP THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT ARE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A FEW
MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVES THAT ROTATE THROUGH AND BRING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR, WITH MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING ONE
AROUND TUE NIGHT, ANOTHER IN THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME, AND A
MUCH STRONGER ONE AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, BUT RIGHT NOW
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD,
CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER COLD IS LIKELY
SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TIME FRAME BEHIND THE MORE
POTENT WAVE. STAY TUNED.
MONDAY MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST AND HEIGHTS START TO RISE, BUT
OF COURSE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT BEST THAT FAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL EVEN THEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT TRI AND TYS AND SCATTERED AT CHA. CLOUDS
WILL LIFT/ERODE NEAR SUNSET, GOING TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SITES. GUSTY WINDS AT CHA TODAY WILL ASLO DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. TOMORROW WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW, POSSIBLY
GUSTY AT TIMES AT TYS AND TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 11 40 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 8 36 19 38 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 7 36 18 37 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 6 32 17 33 / 10 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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