717
FXUS64 KMRX 221829
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING; ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
SOUTH OF I-40.
- DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN, DAILY RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
- A HOT AND DRY PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS LOCATED OVER WEST TN, AND WILL TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL AHEAD OF IT, POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE MCV INDUCES A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AND THIS LOW TRACKS
ACROSS TN AS IT STRENGTHENS. IN RESPONSE THE LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND
50 KT, GIVING ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WE ARE SEEING CLOUDS BREAK UP IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY, ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE
VALUES REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF I-40, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.
CAMS DIFFER ON TIMING BUT WHAT THEY DO HAVE IN COMMON IS AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWER/STORMS, POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS,
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN AL/GA AND SOUTHERN EAST TN THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT, BUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEY SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10
PM.
SHOWERS PERSIST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
STABLE LAYER AT 850-700 MB BUILD IN AROUND 12Z. A NW FLOW AND A
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CAPE MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE DAY
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND MOUNTAINS TOMORROW, BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY AND COOLER.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A PATTERN THAT IS NEARLY
ZONAL WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN A
LARGE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING DRY AND HOT WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY BEYOND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, AND TRACK EAST. TS WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE
LIKELY AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. SHOWERS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED TS WILL PERSIST AFTER THAT TIME UNTIL A FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA AROUND 06Z, WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS, AND TRI MAY
DROP DOWN TO IFR (LOW CONFIDENCE). WE SHOULD SEE CIGS RISING LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 84 64 86 / 90 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 82 61 85 / 90 20 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 83 61 86 / 90 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 79 55 84 / 90 30 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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