536
FXUS64 KMRX 222319
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 709 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
- EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES.
- DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH COOL MORNINGS
AND PLEASANT AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE AS WELL, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
CLEAR SKIES HAVE TAKEN OVER ACROSS CWA AFTER A LITTLE FOG WAS SEEN
EARLIER THIS MORNING NEAR TRI AND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THIS SPELLS TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND COOLER MORNINGS WITH PATCHY FOG. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE PUSHING RH VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT
NBM GUIDANCE WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER GOES,
THE SAVING GRACE OF LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL MITIGATE
ANY GREAT CONCERNS. AS DRY AS IT IS AND HAS BEEN, WE'D BE HAVING A
WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER IF IT WASN'T FOR THESE LIGHT WINDS.
WHERE'S ALL THE PRECIPITATION? WELL, IT CURRENTLY RESIDES OUT WEST,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS BEING BLOCKED FROM
GETTING TO US BY THIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FIRST CHANCE
OF RAIN POTENTIALLY GETTING TO US BY NEXT WEEKEND -- JUST IN TIME
FOR HALLOWEEN. WHILE THAT SOUNDS GHOULISH, THAT SOLUTION IS ONLY IN
THE GFS. THE EURO KEEPS US DRY RIGHT THROUGH HALLOWEEN WEEKEND. FOR
NOW, ENJOY THIS CONSISTENTLY COMFORTABLE WEATHER. IT'S BOUND TO END
EVENTUALLY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF MORNING FOG NEAR TRI. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 73 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 71 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNGER
AVIATION...MCD
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