780
FXUS64 KMRX 012314 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 712 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE TN MOUNTAINS AND SW NC; SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS; HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
CURRENTLY ANOTHER VERY HOT AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY
ABOVE THE TRIPLE DEGREE MARK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HEAT WILL HELP INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY'RE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH
A MODERATELY STRONG CAP SET UP UNDER THE RIDGE. IF THE STORMS ARE
ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THEN WE DEFINITELY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SEE QUICKLY BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
MICROBURSTS WHEN THEY DO COLLAPSE. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL, BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
IN A COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORM DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER AND SOUTHWARD LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT BREAKING THE CAP AND INITIATING STRONG
CONVECTION. CURRENTLY SEEING A FEW TRYING TO GO UP ALREADY AS OF
THIS WRITING (2PM) WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATOR THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION THE CAP IS CAP IS GOING TO BREAK THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR STORY TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT TO
BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
MICROBURSTS.
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FOR MOST PEOPLE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES, BUT WE'RE STILL EXPECTED TO SIT
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG AT TRI TONIGHT, BUT SINGALS FROM THE
MODELS ARE NOT STRONG IN THIS REGARD, SO WILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS
OF MVFR VIS. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
TN/GA BORDER AREA, WHICH COULD AFFECT CHA LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 99 76 100 / 20 20 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 96 74 97 / 0 10 10 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 74 97 75 98 / 0 10 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 98 70 99 / 0 10 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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