309
FXUS64 KMRX 112335 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 729 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
- COLDER TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.
- A 2ND COLD FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT POTENTIAL
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL, PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS. GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
- THE HEAT GETS TURNED UP THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
80S TO LOW 90 DEGREE HIGHS IN THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
COLDER TONIGHT. CLEARING CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, SUNNY
SKIES, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN, AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS, ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. QPF IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND EAST IN PORTIONS OF WV/VA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR BUT
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. CURRENT LREF JOINT-PROBS SHOW AROUND A 30
TO 50% CHANCE TO SEE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE AND AT LEAST
30KTS OF BULK SHEAR. MUCH HIGHER PROBS ARE IN PLACE TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND EAST, WHICH IS WHERE THE CURRENT DAY 3 MARGINAL
EXISTS. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS CLIP
OUR MOST NORTHERN AREAS BUT THE RISK IS QUITE LOW AS OF NOW. STAY
TUNED. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE 850MB JET, WIND
GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. SOME 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, FOLLOWED UP A QUICK WARMUP ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
RETURNS. LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THE
LOW 90S THEN CREEP INTO THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY BY MONDAY. LATEST
MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH NEW NBM POPS COMING IN AROUND 30% CHANCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KTYS AND KCHA THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH NELY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. AT KTRI
HOWEVER, BELIEVE THERE'S ENOUGH OF A FOG SIGNAL IN AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE TO AT LEAST INTRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THERE.
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME 1/4 TO 1/2SM VSBY IS POSSIBLE, BUT I'M
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT FAR YET. SHOULD FOG OCCUR, A QUICK
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 80 58 82 / 0 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 48 78 54 79 / 0 0 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 74 50 74 / 0 0 10 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD
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