238
FXUS64 KMRX 011120
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
TO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WE WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATER
TODAY MAY END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF, TRAPPED MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH DUE TO
THE TROUGH, WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW.
THIS WILL SKIRT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR NO MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH, AT LEAST OVER CLAY COUNTY, CLOSEST TO THE SYSTEM. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND ESSENTIALLY NO CAPE, THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT, TROUGHING AND LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. COOLER HIGHS TOMORROW AS A RESULT, AS WELL AS COLD
SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ANTICIPATED. AREAS OF AND POSSIBLY, WIDESPREAD
FROST SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TN, SOUTHWEST VA, THE
PLATEAU, AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES NEAREST OR
BELOW FREEZING APPEAR MOST LIKELY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
SMOKIES AND CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST WHERE THE TN, NC, AND VA STATE
LINES MEET. SINCE WE ARE NOW WELL INTO THE GROWING SEASON, A FROST
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE
LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE JUST
HOW CLOSE THE TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY REACH THE DEWPOINT THAT
MORNING, GIVEN THE DRY AIR MOVING IN. EITHER WAY, VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY, WHERE LOWS AT THE THREE CLIMATE SITES
AVERAGE 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
A CORNER IS TURNED COME MONDAY, WHERE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
E/SE, PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA, THUS, WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, A COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE AREAWIDE RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. TOO SOON TO KNOW FOR CERTAIN IF THIS WILL BRING A
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM TO FINISH OUT THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER MAY BE AROUND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY CHA, BUT FOR NOW THE
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW EVEN THERE TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 50 68 43 / 10 40 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 49 65 40 / 0 20 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 47 65 39 / 0 10 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 45 61 35 / 10 10 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
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