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FXUS64 KMRX 192009
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
409 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS STILL LOCATED
OVER EAST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES AT MID AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID
50S IN THE RAIN TO 60S WHERE THERE HAS BEEN PARTIAL CLEARING. NEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL VALLEY WITH SMALL SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE COULD
BECOME NMARGINALLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
GETS CUT OFF BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY
MOVES NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EASTERN KY BY MORNING. THIS
BRINGS IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST
TO MID ALANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING IN
THE SOUTHWEST. SNOWFALL WILL START TO ACCUMULATE LATE TONIGHT
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND NEAR ROAN MOUNTAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO BUT MOUNT LECONTE MAY
HAVE AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED WITH
A SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWED BY A NICE PERIOD
OF RIDGING IN A DRIER REGIME. EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SLIPS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVES BACK NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES TO SOME DEGREE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A SIMILARLY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. IT
APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OR UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COMFORTABLE ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 54 41 72 / 70 60 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 51 40 69 / 70 70 30 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 51 40 71 / 70 70 30 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 49 38 62 / 60 70 50 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
TD
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