892
FXUS64 KMRX 131711
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
111 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
- INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN, AND A FEW STORMS, THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM A COLD FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF ANY STORMS CAN
BECOME STRONG ACROSS NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHWEST VA. DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, PERSISTING INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS
WITH POSSIBLY THE BEST ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
NORTH AND EAST. VERY SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE VALLEY AND PLATEAU MAY
MISS OUT THIS ROUND. PERHAPS A HEAVIER STORM MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE
QPF THAN WHAT THE FORECAST SHOWS, BUT AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. SPC PLACES SOME OF SW VIRGINIA AND A
LITTLE PART OF NE TENNESSEE WITHIN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR LATER
TODAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. A POINT FORECAST
SOUNDING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SW VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND 18Z
OUTPUTS A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH A BIT OVER 40KT WESTERLY BULK
SHEAR AND CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, AND TOPOGRAPHIC
FORCING, WILL LEAD TO SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. GUSTY DAY-TIME
WINDS IN THE VALLEY AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL.
MUCH COOLER TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING RETURNING TO THE 40S, WITH POSSIBLE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FROST
POSSIBLE FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THEREAFTER, COLD MORNINGS MAY JUST BECOME A THING OF THE PAST WHEN
THE HEAT SWITCH GETS FLIPPED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
STOUT RIDGING EXPANDING INTO CANADA WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD. FLOW
BECOMES FLATTENED BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
80S AND 90S BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOLLOWING TODAY'S FRONT, WILL GENERALLY
BE LOW. A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MAY BRING SOME LOW-END SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPEARS IT WON'T BE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
SOME BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE BUILDING OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFFECTING TYS AND TRI. CHANCES OF
MVFR VIS LOOK AROUND 30% AT BOTH SITES. WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAINLY TYS/TRI, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AT TRI. WILL TRY TO TIME MOST LIKELY TIME FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM WITH PROB30 GROUPS BOTH TYS AND TRI. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL
SITES. WINDS WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY EARLY, THEN
BECOME MORE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 75 48 81 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 72 45 79 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 72 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 67 41 74 / 40 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
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