041
FXUS64 KMRX 012324
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 245 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PLATEAU AND THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION. A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA HAS BEEN THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE NOTED BEHIND THE MAIN
RAIN SHIELD, SOME CLEARING IS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG CAMS
IN HOW WELL ORGANIZED OR THE EXACT COVERAGE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG
THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER, ONE TREND THAT CATCHES MY EYE IS THAT OF THE
NAMS.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND PLATEAU, UPPER 70S ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU, BUT REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S IN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND EASTWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT A TREND IN
STORM COVERAGE THAT BEST ALIGNS WITH WHERE PRECIP HAS LINGERED
LONGEST THIS AFTERNOON... ONE WHERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE PERSIST INTO THE PLATEAU, BUT AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWA, THE FOCUS IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40 WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AMONG HIGHER THETA-E
ADVECTION.
OVERALL, HREF DEPICTS AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, PWAT WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED FLOODING AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH THAT A LOW
TORNADO RISK WILL IS IN PLACE, PRIMARILY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED. OF COURSE ANY STORM THAT HAS ENOUGH ROTATION FOR A
POTENTIAL TORNADO COULD ALSO EXHIBIT SMALL HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. LATEST
TREND IN CAMS FAVORS FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
INCREASING DCAPES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
AND FLOODING THREAT WHERE STORMS TRAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE AND RESULTING CAPE
PROFILES, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL.
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CUTOFF AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AMONG SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO EJECT THE LOW LATE WEEK, WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WILL HAVE A TEMPO THUNDER GROUP AT CHA TO START DUE TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THERE EARLY. THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AT TYS BUT THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF, SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP WITH A SHOWER. TRI
UNLIKELY TO SEE THUNDER UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD, SO WILL HAVE A
PROB30 THUNDER GROUPT THERE LATE. CHA LOOKS LIKELY TO SEE AN MVFR
LEVEL CIG FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY, AND THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IT MOVING INTO TYS AS WELL. TRI WILL LIKELY
STAY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 86 70 85 / 90 30 20 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 86 70 84 / 80 40 40 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 84 69 84 / 90 40 40 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 83 68 82 / 70 80 60 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
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