263
FXUS64 KMRX 301834
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POST-FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
2. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA.
DISCUSSION:
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE TN/NC STATE LINE MOVING EASTWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION. POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY. THIS CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER PEAK HEATING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
850MB DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MLCAPE IS LOW, ONLY
AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER, WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND INCREASED RISK OF SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. OVERALL, THE SEVERE RISK IS
VERY LOW, BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BRING DRIER, WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, AND NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, BUT THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGF BY WEDNESDAY. AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION, RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STILL, RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PATTERN
MORE COMMON FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW HOURS OF
NORTH-WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS AFTER FROPA, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PIVOT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TS. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS, BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RETURN TO GUSTING 15
TO 20 KNOTS POST 15Z TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 78 59 77 / 10 30 10 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 78 58 77 / 0 30 10 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 73 53 73 / 30 70 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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