406
FXUS64 KMRX 291826
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
226 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 214 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTHEAST, THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
COMMON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS MULTIPLE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE
NORTHEAST, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY EARLY TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO FOR ANY AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THIS WEEK, PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE HOT CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EACH DAY THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE 100 WILL COMMON IN THE AFTERNOONS, AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
BORDERLINE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BASED ON THE HEIGHTENED
IMPACTS OF A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF VERY HOT CONDITIONS A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. IT
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER IN TIME AS IT STILL LOOKS
VERY HOT FRIDAY AND INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, BUT
FOR NOW WILL START WITH THIS THREE DAY PERIOD GIVEN FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LONGER RANGES.
A SHORT WAVE MAY BRING MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS IS LOW THAT FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AROUND EARLY AT TRI, AND WILL
INCLUDE A PROB30 THUNDER GROUP THERE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. TRI LOOKS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS FROM FOG, AND FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THE
FOG ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE STILL LOOKS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 97 77 98 / 0 0 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 94 74 95 / 0 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT /8
PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-
NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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