739
FXUS64 KMRX 131127
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 720 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
- A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
IN GENERAL, THE UPPER RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE
FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, KEEPING ANY IMPULSES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SITUATED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND RESULTING IN CONTINUED HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. IT'S POSSIBLE THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN BY THU/FRI, ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH RAIN
MIGHT FALL WITH ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY:
AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH BROAD MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY, MAY BE ENOUGH
ENOUGH FOR SOME SPARSE SHOWERS OVER MIDDLE TN AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AND OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, I'M NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ESSENTIALLY A DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW
10-11K FEET AT CROSSVILLE, KNOXVILLE, AND TRI-CITIES DURING THE DAY.
I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR, BUT IT MAY BE
MOSTLY VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE,
WE WILL SEE GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GRADIENT FLOW PRODUCING
GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. WILL ONCE
AGAIN SIDE WITH NBM 10TH PERCENTILE DEWPOINTS, WITH RESULTING
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE. ONE CAVEAT
TO ALL OF THIS WOULD BE THAT, DEPENDING ON HOW THICK AND EXPANSIVE
THE MID CLOUDS AREA, FORECAST HIGHS COULD BE TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH WHERE THE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS. THIS COULD ALSO
AFFECT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. NEVERTHELESS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ACCORDINGLY, AND WILL CONTINUE THE SPS FOR FIRE
DANGER IN OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES. WE ALSO REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC
WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE
REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED TO OUR WEST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
LOCALLY AS THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN IS SHUNTED FURTHER NORTHWEST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS,
WITH CALENDAR DAY RECORD HIGHS WITHIN REACH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR SURE. INCREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD HEAT THAT DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE RECORD
TEMPERATURES SECTION IN THE AFD BELOW. AFTERNOON RH WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN LOW, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AS OPPOSED
TO DIPPING BELOW 30 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THURSDAY ONWARD:
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST BY LATE THURSDAY. NBM HAS SOME 25-35 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU AND NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW. CERTAINLY DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK CASE FOR RAIN. BETTER CHANCES MAY EXIST BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD, DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OMITTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE LLWS AS LATEST KMRX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 2KFT
WINDS ONLY AROUND 15KTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
BETWEEN 15 TO 25KTS MID-DAY AND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT. PERIODS OF VIRGA POSSIBLE AT TRI
TODAY, BUT DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW 10KFT, PRECIP IS
UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 60 85 60 / 10 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 58 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 54 83 57 / 20 10 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KRS
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