279
FXUS64 KMRX 292321
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS/HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW-END CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
DISCUSSION:
DRY WEATHER, ALONG WITH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO OUR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
AND THE REMAINING DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS THE EAST COAST
TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND A NEW SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH EMERGE
FROM OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH INCOMING TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE THE POSITIONING AND TIMING OF
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. WITH IT'S APPROACH, WE DO SEE AN
UPTICK IN 850MB WINDS AND A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORT. IF
THE FRONT WERE TO COME THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING, WE CERTAINLY
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SHEAR
PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THOUGH AS MANY THINGS HAVE TO
COME TOGETHER FOR THIS TO OCCUR. AGAIN, IT'S WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON.
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BECOMES CUT-OFF. IF IT DOES, THEN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THIS
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO WHERE TO
GO. THE PREVIOUS DAY 5, NOW DAY 4, ERO STILL MOUNTAINS A
SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA.
BOTTOM LINE, NICE THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUT-OFF LOW LOSES IT'S CIRCULATION
AND BECOMES NO MORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO
THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.
HOWEVER, FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE AT TRI. WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TRI FOR LATE TONIGHT, AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 88 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 84 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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