043
FXUS64 KMRX 141803
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
103 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD +0.50" TOTALS.
- A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS FOR EARLY MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENT LIKELY.
- DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
CURRENTLY A RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC COAST. TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. BY MORNING,
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE IN AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH THAT THUNDER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE HALF AN INCH
TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN ONE
INCH OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 1.2 INCHES WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR FEB 15.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FOR EARLY MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
NBM WINDS ARE WAY TOO LOW. A 850 MB JET IS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
HREF HAS 850MB WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. WITH A WIND DIRECTION FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE WIND
ENHANCEMENT, GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR MAYBE EVEN HIGHER CAN BE EXPECTED
IN DOWNSLOPE WIND PRONE SPOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER AS RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE PATTERN. BY WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN
THE WORKWEEK POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS CHANCES INCREASE FOR A
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEAR TRI AND TYS EARLIER AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY MORNING, WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
BEGIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING BY MID
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE MORNING
HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 57 47 66 / 80 100 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 52 44 63 / 80 100 30 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 52 44 64 / 80 100 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 49 40 62 / 70 100 40 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
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