045
FXUS64 KMRX 051752
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1252 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
- SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET IN SW VA AND THE E TN
MOUNTAINS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
- VERY COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS BEEN PERSISTING LONGER THAN THE MODELS
INDICATED. SOME COUNTIES CONTINUE TO REPORT ICY CONDITIONS AND
TRAVEL PROBLEMS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE. THE
SITUTAITON WON'T IMPROVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT, AND REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
INCREASING AS WELL FRIDAY MORNING, SO THERE WON'T BE MUCH SUNSHINE
TO HELP THE SITUATION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN SW VA AND NE TN,
STARTING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE AN ALL SNOW
EVENT, AND THE UPSLOPE NW 40 KT 850 MB WINDS WILL ENHANCE LIFT
FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. NBM HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH THESE
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE LATEST RUNS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED, FOR 1-4 INCHES MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT. SOME HIGHER PEAKS
COULD SEE GREATER AMOUNTS. WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW WINDS, A WIND
ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AS GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT, TEMPERTURES ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD IN NORTHERN SECTIONS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SW VA AND THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE IF NEEDED.
A WELCOME WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE, BUT SATELLITE SHOWS
CHA SHOULD BE CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TYS MAY CLEAR OUT
NEAR 00Z. TRI WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS IN A NW FLOW. CLOUDS INCREASE AT CHA AND TYS TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT LIKELY AT VFR LEVELS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 29 59 31 44 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 49 26 35 / 0 20 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 25 50 25 35 / 0 20 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 21 39 19 28 / 0 80 60 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
UNICOI.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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