412
FXUS64 KMRX 130547
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
147 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY, AND A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
- TURNING COOLER AND DRIER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PLACE BUT IT LOOKS TO BE NEAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE STRETCHING BACK TOWARD CROSSVILLE. THIS FRONT IS STALLING
AND HASN'T MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED NEAR THE
GEORGIA/TENNESSEE BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTH AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SPC DOES NOT HAVE US OUTLOOKED IN A
SEVERE THREAT YET BUT WITH CAPE AROUND 2K TO 3K J/KG EXPECTED DURING
MAX HEATING IT SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE HIGH AROUND 15K FEET MAKING LARGE HAIL
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE.
THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS BY
MONDAY. THE NBM HAS LOW RAIN CHANCES MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL TO THE SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE, IF ANY, SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A VERY LOW (10%) CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EXISTS TO
DAY, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. DIURNAL WINDS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, FROM THE W TO WSW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 72 88 68 / 30 30 90 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 70 86 65 / 20 40 100 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 88 70 85 64 / 20 50 100 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 66 85 62 / 10 40 100 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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