991
FXUS64 KMRX 101058
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 656 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE
LIKELY AREA-WIDE.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING,
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. ITS REMNANTS WILL THEN PROGRESS
NORTH TO NNW THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY TRACKING MORE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST HOURS,
HIGH ELEVATION OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY CONFIRMED WIND GUSTS OF
OVER 35 MPH WITH THE 850MB FLOW EXCEEDING 60 KTS BY THE MORNING AND
REMAINING SIMILARLY HIGH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOUNTAIN
WAVE ENHANCED WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
EXISTING WIND PRODUCTS WAS THE ADDITION OF CHEROKEE AND CLAY
COUNTIES AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SURFACE WINDS REACHING
60 MPH OR MORE, ESPECIALLY IN CLAY COUNTY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
WILL REACH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING, BUT,
BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE WINDS AND THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG
AREA-WIDE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS
AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
REGARDING THE RAINFALL, DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. UPSLOPING IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PRODUCE MUCH
HEAVIER TOTALS, WHICH COULD INFLUENCE RIVER LEVELS, ESPECIALLY TO
OUR EAST. OTHERWISE, THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO MORE OF
OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. REGARDING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION,
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND ELEVATED, KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT
TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THIS COULD BRING DOWN MORE OF THE 850MB WINDS. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE ON SUNDAY.
AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, LEADING TO
DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK. AS RIDGING EXPANDS FROM THE
SOUTH, A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION WELL
INTO THE 80S BY MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND TRACK TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING A
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
RAIN FROM ISAIAS IS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTEN AT CHA,
VIS/CIG WILL DROP TO MVFR AND LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
AT TYS AND TRI, DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
VIS/CIG MAINLY VFR, WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER LOWERING VIS TO MVFR ON
OCCASSION. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH SOME LLWS THIS MORNING AS WELL UNTIL SURFACE WINDS PICK UP.
SURFACE WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE E-NE DURING THE DAY, AROUND 30
KT EXPECTED, THEN DECREASE TOWARD EVENING. LLWS MAY PERSIST AT TRI
AS SURFACE WINDS DROP OFF BUT WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 62 73 58 / 100 90 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 63 71 60 / 90 90 60 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 61 70 58 / 100 90 70 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 61 73 59 / 90 90 90 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-EAST POLK-
HAMILTON-MARION-MEIGS-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-
MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST
CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-
WEST POLK.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON
VA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
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