216
FXUS64 KMRX 120614
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEETHE THROUGH EARLY TO MID-MORNING. GREATEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH 1 TO
POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- BITTER COLD WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR 5 BELOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY.
- WARM UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
CURRENTLY BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. HEAVIEST BAND OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ESPECIALLY WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES. MAIN
FORCING IS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-600MB
LEVEL. THROUGH THE MORNING THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA BUT
NOTICED MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO,
TEMPERATURES WARM AT 850MB TO ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING SNOW TO
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. REFS
AND HREF SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR SOUTHWEST VA, POSSIBLY UP TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR SATURDAY, SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BRING A STRONG ARCTIC-LIKE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
IN THE EVENING.
COLD AIR-MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL
BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. FOR THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS, SNOWFALL OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE COLD AIR MASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES ANOMALY
LOW WITH READINGS DROPPING TO -15 TO -18 DEGREES.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIRMASS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, UPPER FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY MID-WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 632 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
CHA EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH MOISTURE LOCKED TO THE NORTH. TYS
SHOULD ALSO STAY DRY WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHIFTED NORTH. TRI
WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR SNOWFALL AND REDUCED VSBY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO VA, ENDING AT TRI LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY, SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND COULD GUST AT CHA AND TYS.
CIG EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT WITH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE CALM CONDITIONS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 33 58 28 / 0 0 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 33 55 26 / 10 0 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 31 53 25 / 10 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 30 50 23 / 40 0 0 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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