957
FXUS64 KMRX 150544
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
- LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY MORNING.
- TURNING COOLER AND DRIER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION BUT LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
DISSIPATING BY EARLY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY BORDER STRETCHING THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MORNING AND
STALL WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN TODAY.
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.
BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES START
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN AROUND 15% OR
LESS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, A GULF LOW NEAR LA/TX WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS BUT
BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THIS GULF LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GULF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT AND THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND
FRIDAY EVENING. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
TROUGHING AND HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE DISAGREE ON EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY.
WENT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE TWO WITH TEMPOS AT KTYS AND KTRI FOR THE
MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF WITH PRIMARILY PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 63 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 58 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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