513
FXUS64 KMRX 161142
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
742 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 741 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- DRY AND SEASONALLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DUE TO REPEATED RAINFALL.
- DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ANOTHER DRY ONE CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TO YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. PERHAPS A
STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FURTHER INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE DRY DAY,
BUT WITH MOISTURE ON THE RISE, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA COULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHEN AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY CLASHES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. DAY 4 SPC, WHICH WILL BECOME DAY 3 AFTER
THIS DISCUSSION'S ISSUANCE, DOES PLACE SOME OF OUR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SHEAR MAY BE "BETTER"
COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT. PWATS WILL ALSO RISE, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH DAY 4 AND
5 ERO FROM WPC COVERING THE AREA IN A SLGT. PRIOR TO, AN INCREASING
LLJ WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE SMOKIES.
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
CONSIDERED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
DAY GOES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AGAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE A PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING LATER SUNDAY. CHANCES THEN
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KCHA LATE IN THE PERIOD TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DRY DAY EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 65 88 73 / 10 10 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 64 88 73 / 0 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 62 87 72 / 0 10 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 59 86 66 / 0 10 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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