694  
FXUS64 KMRX 041711  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
111 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME, BUT A  
BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  
 
2. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH  
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.  
 
3. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH NO  
RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
CURRENTLY, TROUGHING IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTS OF 1,500 J/KG  
OR MORE OF MLCAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KTS IN SOME  
AREAS. 0-1KM SHEAR HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS, REACHING TO 20 KTS IN  
MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOME EARLIER STORMS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION.  
WITH THIS SETUP, DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT  
A BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BASED ON  
RECENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST ACTIVITY TO  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.  
 
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, TROUGHING IN THE EAST WILL LIFT TO THE  
NORTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT NORTH BEFORE  
DRIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STRENGTHENING BY THE EVENING. BASED  
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM, SOUTHERLY  
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. HEADING INTO  
THE NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST,  
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY LOOKS  
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING SEEN TODAY, BUT THE NOCTURNAL ASPECT WILL  
LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY. THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE FRONT  
WILL REACH INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH BETTER  
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE  
LESS VEERED WITH MORE LIMITED SHEAR. ULTIMATELY, CHANCES FOR STRONG  
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN DURING THIS TIME.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL MOVE PAST THE REGION WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY, PROMOTING DRIER  
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROPPING  
FAR INTO THE 50S AND UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEIGHT RISES  
WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. CONTINUED HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH IMPACTS  
LIKELY AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT SOME POINT. TRI HAS ALREADY SEEN  
REDUCTIONS DUE TO STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS  
AND STORMS LIKELY. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING IS THE  
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR IMPACT AT CHA AND TYS. FOR ANY PLACES THAT  
SEE RAIN, FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AND WILL BE CONSIDERED  
WITH LATER ISSUANCES. TOMORROW SHOULD BE VFR WITH RAIN CHANCES  
HOLDING OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 92 69 86 / 20 10 40 50  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 90 68 81 / 20 0 40 60  
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 89 66 79 / 20 10 50 60  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 85 63 79 / 40 0 30 70  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BW  
AVIATION...BW  
 
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