721
FXUS64 KMRX 091129
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 729 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW RH'S FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
CURRENTLY, FAIRLY WEAK FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE AND
UPPER JET WELL TO OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH HEIGHT RISES LEADING TO
A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND. VERY LOW RH'S CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN, LIKELY DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S OR POSSIBLY TEENS. LUCKILY,
850MB FLOW IS 5 KTS OR LESS WITH A WEAK MSLP GRADIENT. BY FRIDAY, A
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUATION IN WARMING WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RECEDE SOME BUT KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
SIMILARLY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED, BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
MSLP GRADIENT REMAIN WEAK.
BY SATURDAY, TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH WILL PROGRESS TO OUR NORTH, LEADING TO DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW. THE HEIGHT RISES WILL FURTHER EXPAND THE WARMING TREND. SUNDAY
TO MONDAY, WESTERN TROUGHING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING
SUMMER NORMALS OF 5,840M, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S
AREA-WIDE. THE STRONGER MSLP GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DO
NOT RETURN UNTIL POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT RECENT TRENDS
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD IN RECENT DAYS. THIS WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE
THE DROUGHT WITH KNOXVILLE AND CHATTANOOGA NOW AT THEIR LOWEST YEAR-
TO-DATE RAINFALL (JAN 1ST - APR 9TH) SINCE 2007.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR, DRY, AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 47 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 46 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 74 48 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 44 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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