329
FXUS64 KMRX 051114
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 711 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
- REMAINING RAIN TO GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AND LASTING MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEGUN THE DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEK, AS RAIN
MOVED OUT OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT. AT THE TIME
OF THIS DISCUSSION, A DRY COLD FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST; SKIES ARE
CLEARING JUST BEHIND A LINE FROM MEMPHIS TO NASHVILLE TO
MIDDLESBORO, KY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR US TODAY FROM APPROXIMATELY NW
TO SE. BY THE LATER AFTERNOON EVERYONE SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
THE WEEK AHEAD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF
THE N TO W AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO
OFF OF THE EAST COAST MID WEEK. NEW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER REMAIN LOCKED TO THE NORTH AND OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN TODAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN VALLEY TO ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK. THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE TOMORROW
MORNING WHEN THE UPPER HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IF YOU WERE TO
SLICE IT IN HALF, WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S; 50S FOR LOWS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH TOO FAR TO SAY FOR CERTAIN WITH ANY SPECIFICS, OUR NEXT
POSSIBLE CHANCE OF RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A SHORTWAVE
RIDES NORTH WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. UNDERNEATH IT AT THE
SURFACE, A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY NEED WATCHING FROM THE GULF
COAST'S PERSPECTIVE. AS OF LAST NIGHT, THE NHC GIVES THE AREA IN
QUESTION A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH
FOR US AS IT MAY BRING ANOTHER RAIN FILLED AND DREARY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND LEAD WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. NNE
WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 57 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 53 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 79 52 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 47 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
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