277
FXUS64 KMRX 021741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1241 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY LATE TUESDAY, MAINLY AS
RAIN.
-DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOKS PRETTY TRANQUIL COMPARED TO
THE RECENT RUN OF WINTER STORMS WE'VE BEEN HAVING.
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATED, ALONG WITH THE SNOW
COVER. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS BUT NO PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED
AT OBS SITES. WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP IN AREAS THAT HAVE
SNOW COVER. WENT WITH LOWS NEAR OR COLDER THAN NBM05 IN NE TN AND
SW VA TONIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTRPOIC LIFT
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK FORCING OCCURRING IN THE EVENING NEAR THE
TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA AND EAST
TN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH
OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND RIDING OVER THE PLAINS, PUTTING OUR
AREA IN A DRY NW FLOW. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY SW VA AND THE
NE TN MOUNTAINS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SW TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY AT VFR LEVELS. CHA
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 28 54 38 46 / 0 70 70 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 25 49 35 42 / 0 60 70 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 24 47 35 42 / 0 70 70 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 19 44 34 40 / 0 50 80 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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