998
FXUS64 KMRX 140628
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
228 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE SPOTS AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING BACK HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE FLOODING THREAT IS DECREASING AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE MIDWEST AND AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE IS NEAR MS/AL. THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MS/AL/GA. LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. CAMS HAVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST
COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO CHATTANOOGA WITH COVERAGE MORE
ISOLATED NEAR OR NORTH OF KNOXVILLE. FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE SPOTS AND AREAS THAT HAVE HAD HEAVY
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. FLOODING ISSUES, IF ANY, WILL BE
ISOLATED.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED. WITH
LOWER RAIN CHANCES, TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS
TO THE LOWER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AND REMNANTS OF THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY OR A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EAST COAST, ALTHOUGH WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY
MAY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING AT CHA,
AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND CHA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOWER
CHANCE AT TYS. WILL KEEP THE VCSH AT TYS FOR NOW AND THE PROB30
THUNDER GROUP AT CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 70 88 72 / 90 20 50 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 70 88 72 / 50 10 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 69 89 71 / 30 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 62 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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