270
FXUS64 KMRX 251151
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 714 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
ANOTHER DRY DAY UPON US, WITH SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BUILDING IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
AGAIN, SO EXPECTING ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DIPPING QUITE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARDS TOWARDS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT TWO AND A HALF
DAYS, STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO STEADILY WEAKEN ON APPROACH, AND THE EARLIER EURO
RUN HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE JET OVER OUR MOUNTAINS. THERE'S STILL
THE COLD AIR DAM IN PLACE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, SO
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CAMP CREEK MAY BENEFIT FROM THE DENSITY GRADIENT
AND STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT NOT ANY MORE CONFIDENT ON THIS DESPITE BEING
CLOSER NOW.
THE RAIN NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL AS OCTOBER HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY DRIER THAN AVERAGE THUS FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TWO
DISTINCT PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, THOUGH LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY
FILL IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW BRINGS US
THE FIRST BOUT OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, AND A
LARGER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING THE
SECOND BOUT. THERE'S LARGER UNCERTAINTY ON THE BACK HALF OF NEXT
WEEK REGARDING WHERE THE BIG SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED,
BUT DESPITE THE VARIOUS SCENARIOS EXPECTING SOME AMOUNT OF
SOGGINESS LEADING UP TO HALLOWEEN IS A GOOD BET. THE NBM ONLY HAS
LOW RAIN CHANCES ON HALLOWEEN ITSELF, WITH PROMISING EARLY SIGNALS
FROM THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC SUITE THAT WE MAY SEE DRY WEATHER BY
THEN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER. A DECK OF MID-LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 49 65 51 / 0 10 50 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 46 68 51 / 0 0 30 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 45 66 49 / 0 0 30 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 42 66 46 / 0 0 10 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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