398
FXUS64 KMRX 271904
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 302 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FLOODING IS
LIKELY WHEREVER TRAINING OCCURS. ALTHOUGH LOW PROBABILITY, AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WIDESPREAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THE
CURRENT HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS THE
MAIN THREAT. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME, BUT
ISN'T ZERO, AS SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN CLOSE TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST,
WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. WITH WEAK/MOD SHEAR IN PLACE,
LONG LIVED CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SEE A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET AND THEN REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN OUR NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS
ARRIVES FROM OUT OF MIDDLE TN/KY. THIS NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS,
POTENTIAL MCS, WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO OUR AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY IS WHAT WILL ELEVATE OUR FLOODING RISK AND IS THE MAIN
TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN. CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN OUR AREA. SO
WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST SOME FLOODING IS HIGH, THE EXACT
LOCATIONS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. A LOCATIONS FLOOD RISK IS
DIRECTLY TIED TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL THEY RECEIVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND THEN WHERE THE OVERNIGHT STORMS TRACK/TRAIN. THE
FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM EDT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY AT 11 AM EDT.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT, A LOW END TORNADO THREAT WAS
INTRODUCED BY SPC FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS RISK IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
WHILE THE MAIN THREAT IS STILL DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE
STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 DEGREES IS
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MESSY TAFS AND FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
MULTIPLEROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER. AFTERNOON STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS, WHILE OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
IMPACTS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATIONS OF STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 91 74 95 / 40 40 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 87 72 91 / 90 80 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 88 72 92 / 90 80 30 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 84 68 90 / 90 80 30 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page