017
FXUS64 KMRX 141123
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
623 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD +0.50" TOTALS, WITH GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AREA.
- DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS. AS FAR AS RAINFALL, THE BEST
ODDS OF AN INCH RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND NORTH SIDE OF
KNOXVILLE AT THE MOMENT. THERE'S BEEN SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE OF A GRADIENT IN RAINFALL RATES, WITH LOWER RATES CLOSER TO
THE GEORGIA BORDER NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW, AND HIGHER RATES
FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE. SO THERE
MAY BE WINNERS AND LOSERS VERSUS OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE RAINFALL.
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON SUNDAY SHOULD STILL PACK A PONCHO OR
CONSIDER ALTERNATE PLANS.
LONG RANGE REFS AND HREF INDICATE A PERIOD OF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN
THE SOUTHERN TN MOUNTAINS FOR A BRIEF SPELL SUNDAY MORNING AS FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES TO 30 KNOTS. BETTER WIND SUPPORT RESIDES TO THE
WEST, BUT STRONG INVERSIONS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE GUSTS DOWN OUTSIDE
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. FOR NOW WILL OPT AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY, JUST
BECAUSE THE OVERALL SUPPORT IS PRETTY MEAGER.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE COAST, UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN ONCE MORE, WITH THE H85 RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, AND ANOMALOUS FEBRUARY WARMTH WILL FOLLOW
FOR MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK THERE'S INDICATIONS A SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS
THE HEARTLAND TO THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARDS
US. FOR NOW THERE'S JUST LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL, LIKELY DUE TO
TIMING DIFFERENCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN, BUT WINDS A FEW
THOUSAND FEET AGL WILL INCREASE. LLWS IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD BUT WAS LEFT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. ALSO, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 47 57 47 / 10 80 100 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 44 52 44 / 10 80 100 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 44 52 44 / 10 80 100 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 40 49 40 / 0 70 100 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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