049
FXUS64 KMRX 070554
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1254 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET IN SW VA AND THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS,
GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. VALLEY LOCATIONS IN EXTREME NE TN AND
SW VA MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
- WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN BETWEEN 0 AND
-10F.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES ARE
STARTING TO DROP. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY,
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA NEAR BLACKSBURG. WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW, SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VIRGINIA AND THE
EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICKUP OVERNIGHT. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 2500 FEET. THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE
UP TO 6 INCHES. HREF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NBM. VALLEY LOCATIONS
HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH PRECIP SINCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. VALLEY LOCATIONS IN EXTREME NE TN AND SW VA MAY SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND NE TENNESSEE
BUT ACCUMULATION WOULD LIKELY BE ONLY A DUSTING, IF ANY.
A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH STRONG 850MB FLOW. WITH A WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION, DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS SIMILAR TO THE VALLEY.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SW VIRGINIA IN THE
MORNING HOURS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY WILL BE COLD BUT THE SUN WILL BE BACK. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NEAR TRI-
CITIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NEAR KNOXVILLE. THE SOUTHERN TN
VALLEY WILL BE WARMER IN THE LOWER 40S. PERHAPS LINGERING SNOW
UPSTREAM IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS KEEPING TEMPS COOLER IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES SINCE THE WIND IS COMING FROM THAT DIRECTION. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S, SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN SW VIRGINIA. SUNDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND
AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES CLOSER.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK. NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID
EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES FROM
THE NNW TO THE NNE UP TO 25KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHSN OVERNIGHT
AT TYS, BUT BETTER CHANCES AT TRI THIS MORNING. CIG WILL HOVER
NEAR HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, CIG AT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
IMPROVED WITH INCREASING SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH
TIME INTO THE DAY TODAY. CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 29 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 23 35 20 / 10 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 51 22 36 20 / 10 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 16 28 12 / 40 60 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KS
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