910
FXUS64 KMRX 021113
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
CURRENTLY, A SHORTWAVE IS DIVING THROUGH THE OZARKS AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY. REGIONAL
RADAR PAINTS A PRECIP SHIELD BENEATH A SOUTHERN STREAM JET CORE ATOP
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/DAY. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN HOLDING THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINIMAL LIGHT PRECIP IS IN
SOUTHWEST NC AND THE MOUNTAINS.
H5 HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND -2 TO -3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW NORMAL SFC
TEMPERATURES. WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT,
SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF FROST FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. SOME OF HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE SW VA/TN MTNS MAY SEE
ISOLATED TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, BUT DON'T BELIEVE
THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING. PORTIONS
OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST, BUT TEMPS
SEEM A TAD MORE BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME.
MINOR H5 HEIGHT RISES AND A SHIFT TO MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE EARLY WEEK AS
WELL, THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXIST IN OUR FAR NORTH AS A WEAK
VORT MAX TRANSLATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TROUGHING MID-WEEK, WITH PRECIP CHANCES RAMPING UP WEDNESDAY/WED
NIGHT. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ACCUMS 1.0" OR GREATER ARE
AROUND 40-60%. WILL ALSO BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES. STRONG SHEAR IS ALL BUT CERTAIN, BUT
INSTABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENT OF A
NOCTURNAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE SEASON
MTN/FOOTHILL GUSTY WINDS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS END THE WEEK POST
FROPA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY, WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY CHA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 44 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 43 68 47 / 10 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 40 69 46 / 10 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 38 64 42 / 10 10 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page