181
FXUS64 KMRX 302350 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
650 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 648 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FAR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX.
- RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. PERHAPS A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE
TUESDAY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS MOISTURE IS EXITING. LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS AT MOST.
- DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
CURRENTLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN, AREAS OF FOG AND CLOUDY SKY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH AN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS AND
FOG. SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
FOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE
DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT
STREAM JET ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG JET
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ENHANCING THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH AMOUNTS FROM 1/2-3/4 INCH SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE TO 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
REFS AND RRFS-A SHOW A POCKET OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE STATELINE. THE
COMMUNITIES OF TRADE, MOUNTAIN CITY, SHADEY VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF ICING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. POSSIBLY EFFECTING
EASTERN SECTIONS OF RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTY AS WELL.
ANOTHER IMPACT IS A POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HREF AND REFS PROBABILITIES SHOW DECENT CHANCE OF 40-45
MPH GUSTS.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CHANGING RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY 1
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH
SURFACE RIDGING PRODUCING DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, PHASING OF AN ANOTHER
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LOOK PLAUSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. COLDER AIR FROM WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS MAY ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH, FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY 06Z, ALONG WITH A
SHIFT OF WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO CHA
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 30 50 39 47 / 0 60 100 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 27 49 38 45 / 0 40 100 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 25 47 37 43 / 0 40 100 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 22 49 36 43 / 0 10 100 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS
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