073
FXUS64 KMRX 130530
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH
LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) FOR THE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THUS THE DISCUSSION WILL LARGELY
FOCUS ON THAT.
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THAT'S ABOUT
IT.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRONG UPPER
JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THAT AFTERNOON, ALLOWING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING. BOTH THE NBM AND HREF
PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW BETWEEN A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AN
INCH OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANYWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TN VALLEY. INTUITIVELY THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BY THE TIME THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE REALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW, WE'LL HAVE MOSTLY LOST THE UPPER
FORCING AND WILL BE RAPIDLY LOSING SATURATION INTO THE DGZ. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH.
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN FULL SWING BY WED EVENING, AND
THIS SHOULD LAST INTO MID-THU MORNING, PRODUCING SEVERAL HOURS OF
OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE EXPECTEDLY SHALLOW WED NIGHT, BUT ONE COULD ARGUE THE
PROFILES SUPPORT SOME SATURATION INTO THE DGZ GIVEN HOW COLD THEY
BECOME LATE WED NIGHT. AS SUCH, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
PERIODS OF DECENT SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS SOME 4-6" TOTALS IN THE SMOKIES WITH 2-3" TOTALS
ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
VIRGINIA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LINGERING CONNECTION TO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOISTURE AS THAT COULD INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS,
BUT FOR NOW THIS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SW VA, THE
PLATEAU, AND THE E TN MOUNTAINS, AND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
WE'RE A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
AND MOUNTAINS, BUT BY FRIDAY WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A DRY
BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN AND REINFORCING THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WHICH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR TAFS TO CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THOUGH THE MIXING LAYER IS SHALLOW DURING THE DAY, A FEW GUSTS ARE
LIKELY AT TYS, LESS SO AT TRI, AND NOT EXPECTED AT CHA. WINDS MAY
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS PAST SUNSET AT TYS DESPITE A SURFACE
INVERSION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 38 52 24 / 0 0 70 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 38 49 21 / 0 10 80 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 36 47 21 / 0 10 90 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 33 47 19 / 0 10 80 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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