817
FXUS64 KMRX 290627
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
227 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW OVERNIGHT.
- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAINLY IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
STRONG STORMS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING DISSIPATED BEFORE
REACHING EAST TENNESSEE. CURRENTLY, LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
CENTERED NEAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE COLD FRONT WELL TO
THE WEST IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. CAPE IS VERY LOW IN MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE.
HREF GUIDANCE HAS CAPE STAYING BELOW 100 J/KG OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS OR
A BATCH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE
REGION IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEAR OH/PA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT MAINLY IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT IS LOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
(QUARTER) SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GOOD DYNAMICS IN PLACE,
SYNOPTIC FORCING, CAPE 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE BRIEF FROM ABOUT 3 PM
EDT TO 7 PM EDT.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT, RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE LOW NOW
PROJECTED TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GULF. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S STARTING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COOLEST
DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR ALL OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
REDUCTIONS ARE ALREADY ONGOING AT CHA AND TRI AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
WILL PRODUCE FURTHER REDUCTIONS AT CHA WITH TYS EXPECTED TO REACH
MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS. THIS INITIAL RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF CHA
AND TYS BY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH THE BEST COVERAGE BEING AROUND TRI. REDUCTIONS TO AT
LEAST MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO, WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS LIKELY
BY THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 79 53 72 52 / 70 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 50 68 47 / 70 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 49 69 47 / 70 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 47 65 41 / 90 20 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
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