132
FXUS64 KMRX 130748
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
348 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2021
SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS WHETHER ANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP REACH THE GROUND. RIDGE
IS TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40. ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY.
OTHERWISE, INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TN VALLEY AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SR
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WITH CUTOFF LOWS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND ALSO OUT WEST
OVER NEVADA. THIS TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
PENNSYLVANIA, HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WED. HAVE LOW-END CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK BUT AM A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THERE GIVEN THE SPREAD IN
QPF IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS, A +70KT JET STREAK WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE POPS RAMPING UP
ACCORDINGLY. DO HAVE SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY SO SUSPECT IT WILL BE FAIRLY
HARD TO COME BY AND MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS LIKELY EAST OF THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY OR SO. LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
AN ALMOST WINTER-LIKE NORTHWESTERLY PATTERN, WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVEN IN THE
SOUTH. WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS COOLER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LOWS BREAK DOWN, AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA
COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS RATHER
LOW AT THE MOMENT. THE GFS HAS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MISSOURI WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE TN
VALLEY, WHILE THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY WITH A WEAKER, OPEN WAVE
TO OUR NORTHWEST. FOR NOW, HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
CD
AVIATION
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH WITH CIGS IN THE 8 TO 9K FT RANGE AT TYS AND TRI.
SR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 54 73 49 66 / 10 10 70 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 53 71 47 63 / 10 10 70 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 74 53 70 45 63 / 20 10 70 30 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 50 70 45 59 / 20 10 60 40 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
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