343
FXUS64 KMRX 191745
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1245 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH AN INCOMING FRONT.
- COLDER, SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
RAN A SMALL UPDATE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. REALLY
NOT AS CONFIDENT AS THE NBM AND EVEN THE 12Z HRRR FOR FORECAST
HIGHS TODAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KNOXVILLE, SO HEDGED TEMPERATURES
LOWER. AFTERNOON HIGHS DEPEND GREATLY ON DEGREE OF CLOUD CLEARING
SHOWN IN SOME GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 12Z HRRR) OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. EVEN SO, THE BEST CHANCES FOR STILL REACHING THE EARLIER
FORECAST HIGHS IS CHATTANOOGA, WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE JUST
TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN GEORGIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REGION AND A
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS RETREATING AS A LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A
VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING BELOW 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE. BY THURSDAY EVENING, THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEAR IA/IL/MO WITH A WARM FRONT OVER IN/OH AND A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE PARENT LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH THE UPPER LOW BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH DEW POINTS BRIEFLY REACHING 60 DEGREES IN MOST OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AREAWIDE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LIKELY AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL BE EVEN HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS. GUSTS
UP TO 50 OR 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WIND PRONE SPOTS. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE 70S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN. THIS ONE
MAY HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DRYING OUT SUNDAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS "HORSESHOE" ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, LESS THAN ONE INCH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER
SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
MESSY PERIOD STILL ONGOING WITH LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF TYS.
SHOWERS SHOULD STEADILY WIND DOWN OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT LIKELY EARLY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE RAIN A PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT KTRI WHERE A SURFACE INVERSION IS MOST LIKELY.
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG AT KTRI OVERNIGHT. ONCE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z, RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AREA
WIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 73 49 66 / 80 20 50 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 69 46 61 / 90 30 40 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 68 45 62 / 90 20 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 66 41 58 / 80 40 30 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
UPDATE...WELLINGTON
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page