613
FXUS64 KMRX 191759
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1259 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
- IT WILL BE COLD AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHEN BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
- A HIGHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN, SNOW, AND ICE. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES, BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
CURRENTLY, AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PACNW CONUS
IS RESULTING IN LONGWAVE TROUGHING AND COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -9C TO -10C TONIGHT AND 15 TO 25 KT 850MB
WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
AROUND 0F TO -5F ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FT ELEVATION. THOSE HIKING THE
APPALACHIAN TRAIL, OR JUST HIKING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE RIGHT AROUND -1C TO +1C
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 30SF ACROSS THE VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WEAK SYSTEM, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
TOTALS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS A MINOR SYSTEM, BUT IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THAT REINFORCES COLD AIR FOR OUR REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY THE WEEKEND, THERE IS AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A WINTER
STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE UNANSWERED QUESTIONS REMAIN: THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM, THE MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION, AND
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WHICH WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IN SHORT: UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANCE
AND CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS STILL 5-6
DAYS AWAY. HOWEVER, IT IS A GOOD TIME TO GO AHEAD AND PREPARE FOR
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER THIS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. WE ARE MOST
CONFIDENT IN VERY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 300MB 180KT JET STREAK WILL
BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC PLACING A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A STATIONARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED WSW/ENE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH, SNOW FURTHER NORTH OF THE
FRONT, AND A MIX OF ICE IN BETWEEN. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL
RESULT IN 12 TO 18 HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NBM
PLACES A BAND OF AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH WHERE THIS STATIONARY
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THIS SETS UP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THIS MAGNITUDE OF QPF WOULD
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER.
ANY SMALL DEVIATIONS OF THIS AXIS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH WILL HAVE
DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE LOCATION OF WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. A LOT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS, SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE WEEK AHEAD AS WE
REFINE AREAS OF LIKELY IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KT AT TYS AND TRI.
CALMER WINDS RETURN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 19 41 23 52 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 15 36 21 52 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 14 36 20 49 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 11 31 17 49 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...JB
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