565
FXUS64 KMRX 100522
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- SOME STORMS COULD LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO WEAKLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ITS PRESENCE. LATEST MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG PAIRED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5-1.7 INCHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS OR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF MULTIPLE
STRONG CELLS TRACK OVER ONE LOCATION, HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TOMORROW AND CARRYING INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE WESTERLY LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
FRIDAY MORNING, ALSO AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AMONG HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS VARIOUS VORT MAXES ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY, LOWER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE PM HOURS, A SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
WHILE PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS
REACHES INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR PWAT VALUES BASED AT KBNA.
COMBINED WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY, THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED STARTING AT 16Z AND CARRIES INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE ACTIVITY ROUGHLY BETWEEN 11AM-4PM FRIDAY AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL PROMOTE ENHANCED DCAPE NEAR 800-1100 J/KG. STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AS A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
COULD LEAD TO TRAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE THE POSITION OF A FRONT EVOLVES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK THAT
TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK WILL FEATURE DRIER CONDITIONS AMONG A
WARMING TREND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING PRECIP WOULD BE IN
THE VERY SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THERE WILL BE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH TIMING
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL TRY TO
TIME PERIODS OF THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR STORMS WITH TEMPO AND
PROB30 THUNDER GROUPS, BUT THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
THESE TIMES AS WELL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER, A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY TRI LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE
PROBALITY STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 73 88 71 / 50 60 80 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 72 84 70 / 80 90 90 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 71 85 69 / 90 80 90 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 67 81 65 / 90 90 90 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
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