253
FXUS64 KMRX 221157
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
757 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 740 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- DRY AND SEASONALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND RETURNING RAIN CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY, TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS IN
THE TN VALLEY, AROUND 20-30 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL - IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS - THE TRI RECORD OF 81 COULD BE
TIED OR BROKEN, AS WELL AS OQT'S RECORD HIGH OF 83.
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-22 89(1907) 87(1907) 81(1938) 83(2011)
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT DYNAMICS WITH UPPER TROUGH AND JET WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 AM. MAIN CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40, WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
REGION WILL PROMOTE DRIER AND SEASONALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, BROAD RIDGING WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD, LEADING TO A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A FRONT SETTLES SOMEWHERE IN THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION.
THE POSITION OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION WILL MEAN MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT THE FRONT COULD
LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
AND PARALLEL TO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
DRY AND VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIG MOVES IN
TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF COINCIDING WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PROB30 FOR SHOWERS ADDED IN AT TRI AS THEY POSE THE
BEST CHANCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN CHA REMAINING DRY. SWLY GUSTS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY SUBSIDE SOME AROUND SUNSET,
THEN INCREASE AGAIN ONCE THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTH. SWLY FLOW
TURNS NLY AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 63 74 47 / 0 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 58 68 43 / 0 20 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 58 68 43 / 0 30 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 53 63 37 / 0 50 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS
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