594
FXUS64 KMRX 132333
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 732 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
- WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF ANY STORMS CAN
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHWEST VA,
BUT IF SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- BIG WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP WILL SWEEP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE LIMITED
BUT GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND A BRIEF UPTICK IN DCAPE, IF
ANY STRONGER STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
MARGINAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW
VA AND NE TN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR MOST FOLKS, BUT A FEW MAY SEE UPPER 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
STRONG WARM UP. TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH 90
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH AND THIS MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS SATURDAY MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR OUR AREA.
THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT. WITH THE
EXPECTED APPROACH OF THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TRI AND TYS UNTIL 01Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 74 47 81 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 71 45 78 / 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 71 44 78 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 66 41 74 / 30 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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