063
FXUS64 KMRX 282347
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 741 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TOMORROW, ACROSS ALL AREAS.
- NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA FOR TONIGHT.
- POTENTIAL FOR A RAINY PERIOD IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY ALLEVIATE NEAR-TERM DROUGHT AND
WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS BECOME LESS BREEZY OVERNIGHT BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS MOST AREAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP
INTO THE TEENS/20S ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE EAST TN,
SOUTHWEST VA, AND THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TOMORROW ACROSS ALL AREAS.
MIN RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY COMPARED TO TODAY BUT STILL SOMEWHAT BREEZY
AND OUT OF THE SOUTH. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND
15 MPH BUT ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE 20 MPH. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AN ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS ONCE THE CURRENT
STATEMENT THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY EXPIRES LATER THIS EVENING.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE TO OUR EAST IN THE ATLANTIC. ON TUESDAY, HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE 80S. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND SETTLES ACROSS WV/KY/TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW, COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE AREA, MAY RESULT IN A RAINY PERIOD
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES IN PLACE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE, AND
THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT, MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS UNSETTLED
PERIOD WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL,
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT QPF TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE AMOUNTS MAY HELP TO ALLEVIATE NEAR-TERM DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE
CONDITIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
PRESENT AT THE MOMENT, BUT A LOW PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
RELAXATION OF WIND SPEED AS THE LOW LEVEL DECOUPLES. A RESUMPTION
OF GUSTY WINDS AT KCHA TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY KTYS BUT MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OVERALL. SCATTERED CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE, BUT REMAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 69 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 69 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 35 68 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 65 44 70 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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