514
FXUS64 KMRX 292338
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
638 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
- WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WILL GO AHEAD AND CLEAR SOME AREAS
FROM THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE THE CENTRAL
EAST TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TN,
SOUTHWEST VA, AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS GOING THROUGH THE ORIGINAL
EXPIRATION TIMES OF 4 PM AND 7 PM.
THOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOWER 20S FROM KNOXVILLE AND
SOUTHWARD. WITH SOME WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND NEAR 0 ACROSS THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE! WINDS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WE THEN SLOWLY MODERATE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 50S BY FRIDAY. FRIDAY IS ALSO WHEN OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH PRECIP MOVING IN FRIDAY
EVENING AND GONE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TYS AND CHA. MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT TRI BUT WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT TRI WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW END GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 23 40 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 22 37 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 21 37 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 19 33 21 41 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...MCD
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