292
FXUS64 KMRX 211712 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
112 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- ONE LAST DRY DAY TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY WILL
BE INCREASING AS WELL.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING. TODAY IS ALSO
FATHER'S DAY AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL BE PLEASED TO HEAR
THE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO TODAY AS WELL. RAIN
CHANCES WERE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO START CREEPING UP FROM THE SOUTH
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEY WITH STICKIER AIR
BEGINNING TO RETURN WITH DEVELOPING S/SW FLOW.
LATER TODAY, A SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WILL APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT OUR AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SOME OF 00Z CAMS STRUGGLE TO BRING THE DECAYING
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE COULD GET OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS OR WE COULD NOT. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT WHAT COULD HAPPEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA. DAY-TIME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BEGIN
AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING IF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT PAN
OUT. CONSENSUS HONES IN ON NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SUPPORT WILL BE THERE FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH FORECAST CAPE NOW NEARING 2000 J/KG AND UP AND
DEEP SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20-35 KT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER, IT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PWS
APPROACHING, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, WILL BRING INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. RESIDUAL PRECIP MAY HANG AROUND IF THE FRONT DOES GET HUNG
UP A BIT, LIKE MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW. AS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND UNDER
BROAD TROUGHING AND NW/W FLOW. TEMPERATURES, AS A RESULT, WILL HOLD
STEADY NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. GRADUAL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES, AS WELL AS CPC, INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEING HINTED AT
BY MODELS. FOR HUMIDITY AND DEW POINTS, A TREND DOWNWARD HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT, LIKELY IN THE MVFR-VFR MARGINS. CHA APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE MVFR CIGS, WITH LOWER CHANCES AT TYS AND EVEN LOWER
AT TRI. SOME GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS TAF
PERIOD AT TYS AND TRI, MAINLY 20-25 KT GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 73 86 70 / 10 30 80 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 72 84 68 / 0 30 90 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 71 84 67 / 0 50 90 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 66 85 65 / 0 10 80 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS
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