797
FXUS64 KMRX 251812
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
212 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
- HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL SEE A
TREND TOWARD HOTTER CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THAT HAS BEEN SPONSORING
OUR DRY DAYS AND COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO OUR AREA AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE, WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A
LOT WITH THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE
OFF TO OUR TO SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY HAVE CONVECTION
MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY MORNING, AND IF
THIS OCCURS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY LOOK MODEST WITH LIMITED
SHEAR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS STILL LOOKS LOW. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS EITHER DAY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE NBM JUST HAS SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WE WILL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE IN THE 90S ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS BY
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 94 72 90 / 0 10 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 91 70 89 / 0 10 20 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 91 69 88 / 0 10 20 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 87 66 86 / 0 10 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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