764
FXUS64 KMRX 040041
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 837 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON; SOME MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
REACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS, THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- TEMPERATURES DROP TO NORMAL SUMMER VALUES WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL
DAILY RANDOM STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL CONTINUING AT THIS HOUR PUSHING NORTHWARDS
TOWARD KENTUCKY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AND A LONE RANGER
STORM IN BLOUNT. STORMS HAVE CLEARLY POSSESSED STRONG GUSTY TO
SEVERE WINDS, WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES TODAY. ACTIVITY
IS STILL LIKELY TO COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE AS
THE SUN CONTINUES TO SET, THOUGH STORMS ARE STILL HOLDING THEIR
STRENGTH AS THEY PUSH NORTH. THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD POPS IN FOR
THE NEXT 2 OR SO HOURS, AND BETTER REFLECT THE MAJOR TEMPERATURE
DROPS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WEATHER TONIGHT IS STILL LIKELY TO BE DRY AND QUIET ONCE STORMS
EITHER DEPART OR DISSIPATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING THE HOT CONDITIONS
THIS WEEK WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE AND
SHIFTS IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
ARE ALREADY SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF THIS, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POPPING OFF BY 1PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION AND FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERE'S A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THERE. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DCAPES
IN THE 1,000 TO 1,500 J/KG BETWEEN NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2,500 J/KG.
INSTABILITY ISN'T A PROBLEM TODAY BUT LACK OF SHEAR AND A FORCING
MECHANISM TO CONGEAL STORMS INTO SOMETHING MORE THAN A SMALL,
SINGULAR UPDRAFT, MEANS THAT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW. IF SOME SORT OF CLUSTERING HAPPENS, THEN SOME NOTABLE DAMAGING
WINDS COULD OCCUR, BUT THE THREAT SEEMS ISOLATED OVERALL. AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ARE MORE FIRMLY BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SO I WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN THAT REGION.
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE LESS THERE TOO, SO STORM SEVERITY SHOULD BE
LOWER STILL.
STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW LOOKS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND TERRAIN FOCUSED
LIKE IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMERTIME - LIKELY LESS THAN WHAT WE'LL
EVENTUALLY SEE THIS AFTERNOON. POPS REFLECT THIS. IT SHOULD BE A TAD
COOLER THOUGH AS THE H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL. STILL, IT WILL BE
WARM AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY TOO HIGH IF YOU ASK ME. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S,
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 DEGREES OR MORE SEEM HIGHLY LIKELY. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY AND I DON'T SEE ANY REASON
TO DEVIATE FROM THAT. THE COMBINATION OF THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES AND THE FORECAST HEAD INDICES JUSTIFY THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE, AS WE MOVE FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOSS OF
THE PROMINENT RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NORMAL RANGES. GUIDANCE ISN'T IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS
OF THE UPPER PATTERN, BUT GENERALLY INDICATES A CONTINUED DAILY
PATTERN OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY, WITH POTENTIALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EDGING INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDWEEK. NOTHING PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT ON THE HORIZON, JUST REGULAR JULY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
LINGERING RAIN WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AT CHA, OTHERWISE STORM
ACTIVITY IS MOVING AWAY FROM TAF SITES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THANKS TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER, FOG SEEMS LIKELY
AT CHA, TEMPO FOR IFR IS INCLUDED IN THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME,
OTHERWISE MAY BE PATCHY FOG. SINCE NEITHER TYS OR TRI HAD STORMS,
FOG PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LOWER. INTRODUCED PROB30S FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AT TYS AND TRI TOMORROW, UNCERTAIN IF ANY SHOWER OR
STORM WILL FORM BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 96 75 95 / 20 20 20 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 95 73 94 / 20 20 20 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 96 73 94 / 30 10 20 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 96 70 94 / 10 10 20 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page