847
FXUS64 KMRX 172354
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
654 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS PROVIDING ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL DAY IN EAST TN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT,
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST, AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS AN UPPER JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE N-NE ACROSS THE MS
RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL TONIGHT AS THE SW FLOW
BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS, CONFINED MAINLY BELOW 850 MB, AND REMAINS SO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEASURABLE PRECIP IS NOT LIKELY, ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SW 40-50 KT 850 MB WINDS INCREASE AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAINS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW IN MOST POPULATED
ELEVATIONS, ACCORDING TO THE NBM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
LITTLE MORE FORCING AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH/VORT MAX. QPF SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW
700 MB, BUT THERE COULD BE A ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AGAIN, THERE COULD BE GUSTY SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND QPF APPEARS
LIGHT DUE TO ITS SHALLOW MOISTURE, WEAK INSTABILITY, AND A RATHER
FLAT SW FLOW ALOFT.
A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPIN OFF A SHORTAVE
TROUGH THAT ROTATES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEY
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
LIGHT WINDS AT CHA/TRI TONIGHT, WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10KTS
FOR TYS. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY BUILD WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT CHA EARLY MORNING, MID TO
LATE MORNING AT TYS, AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT TRI. BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT TRI/TYS DURING THIS TIME.
IT IS POSSIBLE VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE AROUND CHA IN THE
MORNING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 68 59 77 / 0 10 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 65 58 74 / 0 10 50 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 64 57 72 / 0 10 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 62 53 69 / 0 10 50 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99
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