677
FXUS64 KMRX 021137
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
637 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
- A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL BRING RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MORNING AS
A TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST DUE TO A WEAK IMPULSE PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GLIDE
EASTWARDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE,
HOWEVER, THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-
HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH
FOR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTH AND EAST. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CAP OFF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS PROMOTE A WARMING TREND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY WHEN
HIGH TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA, CONTINUING INTO THE MID WEEK.
LOW CHANCES (25% OR LESS) OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN EXISTS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND NBM HANGS ONTO SOME
20-40% POPS FOR THIS REASON. THE STRENGTH AND A POSITIONING OF AN
EXPECTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE
IN HOW THESE POP CHANCES EVOLVE OVER THE COMING FORECAST
PACKAGES. OVERALL, STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
ARE VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET, RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ARE LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF RAIN. LATE TONIGHT IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR CHA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 47 57 36 / 30 90 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 44 54 35 / 20 80 50 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 43 55 32 / 10 70 40 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 40 50 33 / 0 50 60 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...MCD
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