506
FXUS64 KMRX 022332
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 724 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A FEW STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND THEN
INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE WEATHER FORECAST, WITH THE HEAT
BEING THE MAIN STORY. A LARGE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
THINGS QUITE HOT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW WILL BE AT LEAST FLIRTING WITH, AND POSSIBLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING, RECORD HIGHS BOTH AFTERNOONS. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT, BUT MAY BE JUST A BIT FURTHER OFF THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAILY
RECORDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 OVER NEARLY
ALL OF OUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILL HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOP OUT AT OR ABOVE 105. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY TODAY AND THIS WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. WILL ALSO ADD A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLATEAU FOR THU AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
09-02 100(2011) 98(2011) 96(1943) 99(1953)
09-03 100(1954) 98(2011) 96(2011) 99(2011)
09-04 102(1954) 101(1954) 99(1954) 100(1954)
BY THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A RETURN TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, TAKING THE EDGE OFF OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE WILL
BACK OFF OF THE RECORDS IT WILL STILL BE HOT, AND WE WILL ALSO SEE
AN UPTICK IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD
US FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY. CAPE WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME STEEPENING OF THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK
BOUNDARY, WITH SIGNIFICANT DCAPE LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL. SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY NORTH AND THEN INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. THE ENSEMBLES PAINT
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PICTURES, WITH THE EPS/EPS-AIFS CAMP SHOWING A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER US WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VERY HOT
CONDITIONS, AND THE GEFS CAMP SHOWING A MORE MUTED RIDGE. EITHER WAY
IT WILL REMAIN HOT, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THE MORE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEAR TRI IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 98 73 97 / 0 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 98 73 98 / 0 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 96 68 95 / 0 10 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-
CAMPBELL-KNOX-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-SCOTT TN-
UNION.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR BLEDSOE-
BRADLEY-HAMILTON-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...MCD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page