872
FXUS64 KMRX 151122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
622 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD +0.50" TOTALS, 1 INCH MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN TN
COUNTIES.
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
- DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER NEXT WEEK. NEXT RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
THURSDAY AND ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
LIGHT RAIN FALLING ALOFT HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING THE SURFACE DRY
AIR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO REACH THE SURFACE
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HALF
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR NEARLY EVERYONE, WITH AN INCH OF
RAINFALL MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS
WON'T ENTIRELY ERASE OUR RAIN DEFICITS, BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK
FROM THE WORSENING DROUGHT. NEAR ZERO CAPE PRESENT, SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY LIGHTNING TODAY.
A VERY MARGINAL MOUNTAIN WIND EVENT WILL BE TAKING PLACE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HREF MEAN GUSTS ARE IN THE 40
TO 50 MPH RANGE, COURTESY OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF LOW CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY. THINK THE SOUTHERN SMOKIES
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE COAST, UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN ONCE MORE, WITH THE H85 RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, AND ANOMALOUS FEBRUARY WARMTH WILL FOLLOW
FOR MIDWEEK. OVER THE WESTERN US A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BURY
ITSELF INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE
BROADER FLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN US WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEXT
ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS TO OUR AREA WITH RAIN DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA, AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CHA IS THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE IFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY WITH ALL SITES HAVING TEMPO
GROUPS FOR AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF IFR. WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED
A FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL, LEADING TO POTENTIALLY MARGINAL LLWS
THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE EVENING
HOURS, BUT SOME LINGERING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MVFR IS
FORECAST TO BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY AT ALL OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT, BUT IFR STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 45 67 44 / 100 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 42 63 41 / 100 30 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 51 41 63 41 / 100 20 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 38 61 35 / 100 30 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BW
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