435
FXUS64 KMRX 250551
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 139 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY
CAUSE FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE NOTABLY HUMID FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WE STAY IN A WET PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL MEANDER A BIT BUT NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO OUR AREA.
THE FLOOD WATCH THAT HAS BEEN IN EFFECT WILL NOT BE EXTENDED AT THIS
TIME AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS WANING, AND MODELS SUGGEST A
LULL BEFORE ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR MONDAY
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING OVER THE AREA AND
AN UPTICK IN UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, EXACT TIMING OF PEAK
COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6-
1.9"INCHES (NEAR DAILY MAX OF KBNA SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY) MONDAY, AND
SHEAR GENERALLY LOOKS LOW WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN
6C/KM. RAIN RATES SHOULD BE HIGH BUT THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW
WITH MONDAY'S CONVECTION. HOWEVER, ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR US TO SEE A FEW STORMS BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AS WE MOVE INTO MID-WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH TIMING INFLUENCED BY ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
FLOW, BUT WITH AFTERNOONS EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVERALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED OR PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE, THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO HUMID AND STICKY FEELING CONDITIONS AT LEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK.
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG
SOUTH INTO OR POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR AREA, THEN WILL LIKELY STALL AND
NUDGE BACK NORTH AGAIN. HOWEVER, FUTURE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
FRONT IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT MAKES IT, THERE MAY BE A DRIER PERIOD ESPECIALLY NORTH
SOMETIME IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THE
NBM ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
OUR AREA IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS
REASONABLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END SOON NEAR TYS
BUT WILL CONTINUE NEAR TRI THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PICK UP AFTER 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BUT MAY BE ADDED LATER IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 65 81 66 / 90 70 90 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 64 81 65 / 80 70 90 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 63 80 64 / 80 70 90 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 61 81 62 / 80 80 90 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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