936
FXUS64 KMRX 312313
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 710 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 40S AFTER
SUNSET.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND SOME WARMING FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WE START THE PERIOD UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WITH ONE UPPER
LOW MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING TOWARD AND INTO
THE 40S AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING FOR ANY TRICK OR TREATERS OUT
AND ABOUT. AFTER A CHILLY (AND FROSTY IN MANY AREAS) START ON
SATURDAY, WE WILL HAVE A DRY DAY AREA WIDE WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
VALLEY.
THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. THIS SHOULD BE ALL OR NEARLY ALL RAIN, ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN OVER THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN PROVIDING
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY. THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS LIKELY TO BE
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES. CURRENTLY
BROKEN 5-6KFT AT TRI WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HREF AND GFS SHOW
INCREASING HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 39 62 46 59 / 0 10 40 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 60 45 58 / 0 10 50 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 36 60 45 57 / 0 10 60 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 58 42 59 / 0 10 40 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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