015
FXUS64 KMRX 020532
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST THU DEC 1 2022
TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE TRENDED COLDER, SO HOURLY AND
FORECAST MINS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. OTHERWISE, FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING IS STILL ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 1 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR THE SHORT TERM, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM
OUR AREA NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID-20S TO MID-30S AREA WIDE. DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TODAY
RESULTS IN LOW DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOW RH VALUES, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS ALREADY ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST TN, WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE RH VALUES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL, WITH MUCH OF THE VALLEY SEEING RHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH, SLOWLY DRAWING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. CAPPED
POPS AT LOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE I AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE LACK OF
NOTABLE FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU DEC 1 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED,
BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
2. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS, SOUTHWEST VA, AND THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
3. WET PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WE START THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 850 MB FLOW PEAKS AROUND 50KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS, SOUTHWEST VA,
AND THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS NOTED BY THE HREF MEAN,
WRF/ARW, AND THE NAM 3KM. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD, A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED SOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN, THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WE DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY SO WHILE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
MAY OCCUR IT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTAL QPF AVERAGING 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WE REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BUT PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON PRECIP TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE KEY TAKEAWAY SHOULD BE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE SETUP FOR THIS
PATTERN IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1" WILL PRESENT AND
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.3 INCHES WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 90
PERCENTILE AND MAX MOVING AVERAGE BASED ON BNA SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS PERIOD RANGES BETWEEN 2 TO 3
INCHES. THESE VALUES COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP AXIS SETS UP. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. INSTABILITY REMAINS MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH SO MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT TODAY. CIG HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AND INTO THE END OF THE 6Z TAF PERIOD,
WHERE BKN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO REACH HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 10KFT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CATEGORY CHANGES, ALONG WITH A MENTION OF
PRECIP, WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 49 62 39 / 10 70 70 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 47 60 36 / 10 70 70 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 47 59 35 / 10 70 70 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 44 57 33 / 0 60 70 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILLIAMS
LONG TERM....SR
AVIATION...KRS
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