909
FXUS64 KMRX 281125
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 718 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
- LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
- RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL
KEEP AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER BY SUNRISE, WHILE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SO SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW, MAINLY NEAR
THE FRONT. A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. NBM POPS
WILL BE CUT BACK.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE PRETTY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
ACROSS GA/N AL/WEST TN, WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVER OUR AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER STABLE AS WELL, WITH ONLY WEAK CAPE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AS PW VALUES RETURN TO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE, AND A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK COULD BRING SOME DRYING OUT TO THE REGION AS
WE SIT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP TROUGH/LOW MEANDERING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
MEANS WE'LL BE UNDER GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD STILL
DRAW UP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT THIS PATTERN WOULD TYPICALLY
INDICATE LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOL BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THIS
SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG.
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIFT QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR STORM WILL BE NEAR CHA, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 67 83 66 / 30 10 40 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 63 84 65 / 30 0 30 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 62 83 64 / 20 0 30 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 55 84 60 / 20 0 0 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...MCD
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