819
FXUS64 KMRX 020633
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 233 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
- VERY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY. 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- CHANCES FOR PM SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
- COLD FRONT LATE WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, EXCEPT MAYBE LESSER COVERAGE IN
HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z HRRR, INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAKER. ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM THOUGH DOES HAVE THE CHANCE OF
BECOMING STRONG WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING. BASICALLY THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR FRIDAY
WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER TODAY DUE
TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EVEN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
LATER TODAY, WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST, EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE VALUES RUN 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TAKE A NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRACK. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE CENTRAL US WILL ALSO TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HOPEFULLY BRING MUCH NEEDED
PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO OR JUST OVER
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WPC HIGHLIGHTS A
MRGL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE DAY 4 PERIOD.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
EASTER SUNDAY TO KICK START THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL. A DRY FEW
DAYS MAY SET IN WITH LOW AFTERNOON RHS, SO A POSSIBLE RETURN OF
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. FROST DEVELOPMENT MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE SOME
MORNINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AROUND TUES/WED MAY
BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR
EXAMPLE, TRI-CITIES AVERAGES A LOW OF 41 DEGREES APRIL 8TH, BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOW 30S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER GENERALLY BETWEEN 5,000 AND 10,000
FEET. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER LIKELY AT CHA
AND TYS. THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAFS. IF ANYTHING DID HIT ONE OF THE TERMINALS, TRI HAS
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR IMPACT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 63 84 63 / 20 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 63 82 61 / 20 0 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 63 82 61 / 20 20 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 58 80 57 / 20 0 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW
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