597  
FGUS73 KBIS 271907  
ESFBIS  
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053-  
055-057-059-061-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-291800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
207 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025  
   
..FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK  
 
 
THIS FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI  
AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF NORTH DAKOTA, COVERING THE PERIOD OF 28  
JUNE THROUGH 28 SEPTEMBER, 2025.  
 
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS. THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME  
TEXT ON THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS OUTLOOK AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE  
LOCAL HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
RISKS OF FLOODING AS DETERMINED BY THE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECAST  
MODEL OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE THIRD SECTION GIVES THE  
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE AT THE LISTED  
FORECAST LOCATIONS. AND FINALLY, THE FOURTH SECTION COVERS THE RISK  
OF THE RIVER SITES FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGES.  
   
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS  
 
IN GENERAL, THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST LOCATIONS IN THE MISSOURI AND  
JAMES RIVER BASINS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ARE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
   
..SNOWPACK CONDITIONS  
 
NO SNOW EXISTS IN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF NORTH  
DAKOTA.  
   
..THE MISSOURI AND YELLOWSTONE RIVERS WEST OF WILLISTON  
 
THE HEADWATERS AREAS FOR BOTH THE YELLOWSTONE AND MISSOURI RIVERS  
CONTINUE TO MELT OFF A NEAR-NORMAL SNOWPACK, BUT THE OVERALL RUNOFF  
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN NORMAL THIS YEAR.  
   
..CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS  
 
RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY BENEFICIAL AND IMPROVED THE CONDITIONS  
THAT INFLUENCE DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS. NONETHELESS, THERE ARE STILL D0  
(ABNORMALLY DRY) TO D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT) CONDITIONS THAT REMAIN  
OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CENTERED AROUND  
MCKENZIE, DUNN, GOLLDEN VALLEY AND BILLINGS COUNTIES. THIS AREA,  
WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER OFF THAN JUST A FEW SHORT WEEKS AGO,  
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A LESS THAN OPTIMAL REBOUND FROM THE MUCH MORE  
SEVERE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST YEAR.  
   
..RESERVOIRS AND NATURAL WETLANDS  
 
IN GENERAL, THE MISSOURI RIVER RESERVOIRS OF LAKE OAHE AND LAKE  
SAKAKAWEA REMAIN AT THE LOWER END OF NORMAL FOR EXPECTATIONS THIS  
YEAR. SMALLER MAN-MADE FEATURES,NATURAL WETLANDS, AND LIVESTOCK  
DAMS HAVE EXPERIENCED MIXED RESULTS WITH SOME DOING WELL, AND OTHERS  
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
   
..SOIL CONDITIONS  
 
A HIGHER THAN NORMAL FRACTION OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS INFILTRATED  
THE SOIL AND RAISED SOIL MOISTURE VALUES CONSIDERABLY. INDEED, MUCH  
OF THE MISSOURI AND JAMES BASINS NOW HAVE ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE  
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK  
 
THE NEAR TERM 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
NORTH DAKOTA. THE OUTLOOKS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY HAVE A FAIRLY  
STRONG FAVORING FOR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LOOKING OUR EVEN LONGER AT THE THREE-MONTH  
OUTLOOKS COVERING JULY, AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER THERE IS AGAIN A FAIRLY  
STRONG FAVORING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION. THIS FAVORING OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION SIGNAL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF  
SUMMER HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING  
 
VALID PERIOD: 06/28/2025 - 09/26/2025  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:PIPESTEM  
PINGREE 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:JAMES RIVER  
GRACE CITY 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 11 8 9 7 8 6  
LAMOURE 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MISSOURI RIVER  
WILLISTON 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 38 <5 28 <5 14  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
REGENT 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR CREEK  
RALEIGH 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
BREIEN 10.0 20.0 23.0 : 9 34 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LINTON 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 8 22 6 13 5 11  
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER  
WILLISTON 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 11 40 5 17 <5 5  
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER  
MARMARTH 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MEDORA 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WATFORD CITY 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KNIFE RIVER  
MANNING 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 6 13 <5 5 <5 <5  
:SPRING CREEK  
ZAP 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 14 13 7 12 5 11  
:KNIFE RIVER  
HAZEN 21.0 24.0 25.0 : 15 12 10 10 6 9  
:HEART RIVER  
MANDAN 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:APPLE CREEK  
MENOKEN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 19 40 12 27 5 9  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/28/2025 - 09/26/2025  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:PIPESTEM  
PINGREE 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.4 9.7 11.1  
:JAMES RIVER  
GRACE CITY 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 7.8 12.7 17.2  
LAMOURE 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 9.2 13.4  
:MISSOURI RIVER  
WILLISTON 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 18.2 18.8  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
REGENT 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.5 7.4 8.3 8.9  
:CEDAR CREEK  
RALEIGH 1.4 1.5 2.6 3.9 4.7 5.7 6.6  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
BREIEN 3.2 3.9 4.9 6.4 8.0 9.7 11.3  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LINTON 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.2 6.9 9.6 15.5  
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER  
WILLISTON 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 6.9 10.9 12.1  
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER  
MARMARTH 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.0 7.3 8.1  
MEDORA 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 4.7 7.6 8.9  
WATFORD CITY 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.2 10.1 12.4 13.5  
:KNIFE RIVER  
MANNING 6.2 6.2 6.3 7.2 8.4 13.8 15.8  
:SPRING CREEK  
ZAP 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.2 8.4 15.0 20.1  
:KNIFE RIVER  
HAZEN 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.2 11.3 24.2 25.1  
:HEART RIVER  
MANDAN 9.6 9.6 10.6 12.3 17.5 21.2 31.0  
:APPLE CREEK  
MENOKEN 6.4 6.4 6.5 8.2 14.5 16.1 17.3  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR  
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES  
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/28/2025 - 09/26/2025  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:PIPESTEM  
PINGREE 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3  
:JAMES RIVER  
GRACE CITY 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3  
LAMOURE 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1  
:MISSOURI RIVER  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
REGENT 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2  
:CEDAR CREEK  
RALEIGH 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
BREIEN 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LINTON 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3  
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER  
WILLISTON 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6  
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER  
MARMARTH 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9  
MEDORA 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
WATFORD CITY 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1  
:KNIFE RIVER  
MANNING 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1  
:SPRING CREEK  
ZAP 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7  
:KNIFE RIVER  
HAZEN 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7  
:HEART RIVER  
MANDAN 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0  
:APPLE CREEK  
MENOKEN 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE  
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE  
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC  
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED  
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF JULY.  
 
 
 
SCHLAG  
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