798  
FGUS73 KBIS 260102  
ESFBIS  
NDC001-007-009-011-013-015-021-023-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-  
047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-089-093-  
101-103-105-260915-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
602 PM MST THU NOV 25 2021  
   
..FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES  
RIVER BASINS OF NORTH DAKOTA, COVERING THE PERIOD OF 27 NOVEMBER  
THROUGH 25 FEBRUARY, 2022. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF THE NORMAL  
RELEASE OF FLOOD PROBABILITIES, ON OR ABOUT, THE FOURTH THURSDAY OF  
EACH MONTH.  
 
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS. THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME  
TEXT ON THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS OUTLOOK AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING  
THE LOCAL HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT AND  
NORMAL/HISTORICAL RISKS OF FLOODING AS DETERMINED BY THE ENSEMBLE  
STREAMFLOW FORECAST MODEL OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE  
THIRD SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING FLOOD  
STAGE AT THE LISTED FORECAST LOCATIONS. AND FINALLY, THE FOURTH  
SECTION COVERS THE RISK OF THE RIVER SITES FALLING BELOW THE  
LISTED STAGES.  
   
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
DROUGHT CONTINUES TO LINGER IN ALMOST ALL OF THE MISSOURI AND JAMES  
RIVER BASINS. PRECIPITATIONS HAVE VARIED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS,  
WITH BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI  
RIVER, WHILE THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS SEEN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE,  
WITH THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM ANY  
DROUGHT DESIGNATION.  
ADDITIONALLY, WE ARE STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF WETTER WEATHER IN  
OCTOBER, WHICH HAS PREVENTED DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM WORSENING. THE  
RISK  
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS AT OR BELOW HISTORICALLY NORMAL  
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
   
..CURRENT CONDITIONS
 
 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN, WITH BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN  
PARTS OF THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS, AND ABOVE NORMAL  
MOISTURE IN EASTERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL SEEING THE  
BENEFITS OF NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN OCTOBER, AS  
WELL AS OCCASIONAL COOL PERIODS, WHICH HAS PREVENTED DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS FROM WORSENING. THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS  
CURRENTLY FREE FROM ANY DROUGHT DESIGNATION, DUE TO CONTINUED  
BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 4 OR SO MONTHS.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OR SO OF DECEMBER, BEFORE A POSSIBLE  
TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS  
MIXED BAG OF TILTS IS REFLECTED IN THE ONE-MONTH OUTLOOK THAT HAS  
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL, BELOW NORMAL, OR NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK HAS WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FAVORED FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,  
WHICH IS A RESULT OF THE ONGOING LA NINA. LIKE THE ONE-MONTH  
OUTLOOK, THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK HAS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL,  
BELOW NORMAL, OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 11/27/2021 - 02/25/2022  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:PIPESTEM  
PINGREE 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:JAMES RIVER  
GRACE CITY 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LAMOURE 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MISSOURI RIVER  
WILLISTON 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
REGENT 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR CREEK  
RALEIGH 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
BREIEN 10.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LINTON 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER  
WILLISTON 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER  
MARMARTH 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MEDORA 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WATFORD CITY 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KNIFE RIVER  
MANNING 15.0 17.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SPRING CREEK  
ZAP 14.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KNIFE RIVER  
HAZEN 21.0 24.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:HEART RIVER  
MANDAN 17.0 23.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:APPLE CREEK  
MENOKEN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/27/2021 - 02/25/2022  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:PIPESTEM  
PINGREE 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3  
:JAMES RIVER  
GRACE CITY 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.8  
LAMOURE 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.6  
:MISSOURI RIVER  
WILLISTON 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
REGENT 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.1 6.1 6.3 6.6  
:CEDAR CREEK  
RALEIGH 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.9 3.5  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
BREIEN 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.1 4.3 5.2 5.9  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LINTON 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.8  
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER  
WILLISTON 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6  
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER  
MARMARTH 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.4  
MEDORA 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.8  
WATFORD CITY -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 0.2  
:KNIFE RIVER  
MANNING 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2  
:SPRING CREEK  
ZAP 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4  
:KNIFE RIVER  
HAZEN 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.9 2.3  
:HEART RIVER  
MANDAN -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.8  
:APPLE CREEK  
MENOKEN 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.5 8.2  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR  
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/27/2021 - 02/25/2022  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:PIPESTEM  
PINGREE 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7  
:JAMES RIVER  
GRACE CITY 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0  
LAMOURE 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9  
:MISSOURI RIVER  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
REGENT 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5  
:CEDAR CREEK  
RALEIGH 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1  
:CANNONBALL RIVER  
BREIEN 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LINTON 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2  
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER  
WILLISTON 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5  
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER  
MARMARTH 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9  
MEDORA 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4  
WATFORD CITY -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0  
:KNIFE RIVER  
MANNING 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7  
:SPRING CREEK  
ZAP 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5  
:KNIFE RIVER  
HAZEN 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
:HEART RIVER  
MANDAN -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6  
:APPLE CREEK  
MENOKEN 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE  
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE  
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC  
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED  
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF DECEMBER.  
 

 
 
JONES  
 
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