039
FGUS73 KBIS 242046
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053-
055-057-059-061-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-250500-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
246 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
THIS FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES
RIVER BASINS OF NORTH DAKOTA, COVERING THE PERIOD OF 28 DECEMBER
THROUGH 28 MARCH, 2026.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS. THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS OUTLOOK AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
RISKS OF FLOODING AS DETERMINED BY THE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECAST
MODEL OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE THIRD SECTION GIVES THE
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE AT THE LISTED
FORECAST LOCATIONS. AND FINALLY, THE FOURTH SECTION COVERS THE RISK
OF THE RIVER SITES FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGES.
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN ARE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE FORECAST LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
..SNOWPACK CONDITIONS
WHILE THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON HAD A ROBUST BEGINNING IN EARLY
DECEMBER, MOST OF THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS HAVE SINCE
LOST A FAIR AMOUNT OF THEIR SNOWPACK TO MELTING AND SUBLIMATION.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS VIRTUALLY NO RUNOFF OBSERVED FROM THE RECENT WARM
WEATHER AND THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSING SNOWPACK
AND ITS SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT REMAINS IN SOME FORM. MUCH OF THAT
MELTED INFILTRATED INTO THE UPPER FEW INCHES OF THE SOIL HORIZON, OR
REMAINS SITTING ON TOP OF THE GROUND IN THE FORM OF ICE.
..THE MISSOURI AND YELLOWSTONE RIVERS WEST OF WILLISTON
THE MISSOURI AND YELLOWSTONE RIVERS WEST OF WILLISTON ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
..CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
THERE ARE NO CURRENT DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS IN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES
RIVER BASINS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
..RESERVOIRS AND NATURAL WETLANDS
NATURAL WETLANDS AND ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIR ARE GENERALLY WITHIN THE
LONG-TERM NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FLOOD CONTROL
FEATURES ARE ARE ALREADY AT, OR ON PACE TO REACH THEIR NORMAL
DRAW-DOWN LEVELS IN PREPARATION FOR THE EVENTUAL SPRING MELT SEASON.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL WATER STORAGE WILL PROVIDE A NORMAL AMOUNT
OF FLOOD MITIGATION COME THE SPRING MELT SEASON.
..SOIL CONDITIONS
IN GENERAL, SOILS ACROSS THE STATE REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOIL MOISTURE THOUGH IS A BIT MORE OF A MIXED
BAG WHERE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GENERALLY HAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE DOWN THROUGH THE ROOT ZONE, BUT BY THE TIME ONE GETS
TO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN, SOIL MOISTURE IN THE ROOT ZONE IS
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE RECENT LOSS OF AT
LEAST SOME OF OUR EARLY SNOWPACK TO MELTING ACROSS MOST OF THE
MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASIN, THE UPPER FEW INCHES OF SOIL ARE
GENERALLY MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL. THIS NOW WET AND FROZEN UPPER FEW
INCHES OF THE SOIL HORIZON IS KNOWN TO INHIBIT INFILTRATION OF
RUNOFF DURING THE SPRING MELT SEASON, WHICH IN TURN ENHANCES RUNOFF
FROM A GIVEN AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT AND EARLY SPRING RAINS.
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
THE NEAR TERM 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LOOKING A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE FUTURE AND THE FULL MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR JANUARY
CONTINUE TO REFLECT AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING EVEN LONGER TERM, THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOKS COVERING JANUARY,
FEBRUARY, AND MARCH ALSO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE KNOWN EFFECTS OF A
LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERN THAT IS TYPICALLY (BUT NOT ALWAYS)
ASSOCIATED WITH WETTER AND COOLER OUTCOMES ALL THE WAY INTO THE
SPRING MELT SEASON.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 12/28/2025 - 03/28/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PIPESTEM
PINGREE 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LAMOURE 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 17 <5 6 <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI RIVER
WILLISTON 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CANNONBALL RIVER
BREIEN 10.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CREEK
LINTON 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 23 <5 10 <5 <5
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 9 37 <5 23 <5 5
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MEDORA 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
WATFORD CITY 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KNIFE RIVER
MANNING 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SPRING CREEK
ZAP 14.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 16 <5 11 <5 5
:KNIFE RIVER
HAZEN 21.0 24.0 25.0 : <5 20 <5 12 <5 10
:HEART RIVER
MANDAN 27.0 33.0 38.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 33 37 7 36 <5 10
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 12/28/2025 - 03/28/2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:PIPESTEM
PINGREE 5.5 6.6 8.6 10.3 10.8 11.5 11.7
:JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.6 9.0 11.9 13.0
LAMOURE 7.0 7.0 7.8 8.4 11.3 15.3 16.5
:MISSOURI RIVER
WILLISTON 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.7 20.6 21.6
:CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.3 8.1
:CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.5 4.9 5.3
:CANNONBALL RIVER
BREIEN 4.0 4.1 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.1 8.3
:BEAVER CREEK
LINTON 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.9 9.3
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 4.3 4.3 5.4 5.8 6.7 9.1 11.6
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH 1.1 1.5 2.1 3.2 5.8 11.3 14.2
MEDORA 2.6 2.7 3.0 4.8 8.3 12.5 16.7
WATFORD CITY 8.3 8.6 9.0 11.3 14.2 16.4 20.8
:KNIFE RIVER
MANNING 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.2 9.9 14.4
:SPRING CREEK
ZAP 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.4 8.6 9.9 11.8
:KNIFE RIVER
HAZEN 3.5 3.7 5.3 7.1 10.7 15.6 20.2
:HEART RIVER
MANDAN 11.1 11.8 13.3 15.3 16.9 20.1 21.3
:APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 6.3 6.8 11.4 14.0 15.3 15.9 16.2
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 12/28/2025 - 03/28/2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:PIPESTEM
PINGREE 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4
:JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
LAMOURE 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
:MISSOURI RIVER
:CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
:CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
:CANNONBALL RIVER
BREIEN 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
:BEAVER CREEK
LINTON 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
MEDORA 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
WATFORD CITY 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
:KNIFE RIVER
MANNING 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1
:SPRING CREEK
ZAP 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
:KNIFE RIVER
HAZEN 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
:HEART RIVER
MANDAN 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2
:APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF JANUARY.
SCHLAG
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