798
FGUS73 KBIS 260102
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-009-011-013-015-021-023-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-
047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-089-093-
101-103-105-260915-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
602 PM MST THU NOV 25 2021
..FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
THIS FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES
RIVER BASINS OF NORTH DAKOTA, COVERING THE PERIOD OF 27 NOVEMBER
THROUGH 25 FEBRUARY, 2022. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF THE NORMAL
RELEASE OF FLOOD PROBABILITIES, ON OR ABOUT, THE FOURTH THURSDAY OF
EACH MONTH.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS. THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS OUTLOOK AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING
THE LOCAL HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT AND
NORMAL/HISTORICAL RISKS OF FLOODING AS DETERMINED BY THE ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW FORECAST MODEL OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE
THIRD SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING FLOOD
STAGE AT THE LISTED FORECAST LOCATIONS. AND FINALLY, THE FOURTH
SECTION COVERS THE RISK OF THE RIVER SITES FALLING BELOW THE
LISTED STAGES.
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
DROUGHT CONTINUES TO LINGER IN ALMOST ALL OF THE MISSOURI AND JAMES
RIVER BASINS. PRECIPITATIONS HAVE VARIED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS,
WITH BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER, WHILE THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS SEEN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE,
WITH THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM ANY
DROUGHT DESIGNATION.
ADDITIONALLY, WE ARE STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF WETTER WEATHER IN
OCTOBER, WHICH HAS PREVENTED DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM WORSENING. THE
RISK
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS AT OR BELOW HISTORICALLY NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
..CURRENT CONDITIONS
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN, WITH BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS, AND ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE IN EASTERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL SEEING THE
BENEFITS OF NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN OCTOBER, AS
WELL AS OCCASIONAL COOL PERIODS, WHICH HAS PREVENTED DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FROM WORSENING. THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS
CURRENTLY FREE FROM ANY DROUGHT DESIGNATION, DUE TO CONTINUED
BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 4 OR SO MONTHS.
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OR SO OF DECEMBER, BEFORE A POSSIBLE
TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS
MIXED BAG OF TILTS IS REFLECTED IN THE ONE-MONTH OUTLOOK THAT HAS
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL, BELOW NORMAL, OR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK HAS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FAVORED FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
WHICH IS A RESULT OF THE ONGOING LA NINA. LIKE THE ONE-MONTH
OUTLOOK, THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK HAS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL,
BELOW NORMAL, OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 11/27/2021 - 02/25/2022
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PIPESTEM
PINGREE 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LAMOURE 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI RIVER
WILLISTON 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CANNONBALL RIVER
BREIEN 10.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CREEK
LINTON 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MEDORA 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WATFORD CITY 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KNIFE RIVER
MANNING 15.0 17.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SPRING CREEK
ZAP 14.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KNIFE RIVER
HAZEN 21.0 24.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:HEART RIVER
MANDAN 17.0 23.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 11/27/2021 - 02/25/2022
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:PIPESTEM
PINGREE 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
:JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.8
LAMOURE 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.6
:MISSOURI RIVER
WILLISTON 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
:CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.1 6.1 6.3 6.6
:CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.9 3.5
:CANNONBALL RIVER
BREIEN 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.1 4.3 5.2 5.9
:BEAVER CREEK
LINTON 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.8
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.4
MEDORA 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.8
WATFORD CITY -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 0.2
:KNIFE RIVER
MANNING 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2
:SPRING CREEK
ZAP 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4
:KNIFE RIVER
HAZEN 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.9 2.3
:HEART RIVER
MANDAN -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.8
:APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.5 8.2
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 11/27/2021 - 02/25/2022
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:PIPESTEM
PINGREE 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
:JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
LAMOURE 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9
:MISSOURI RIVER
:CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
:CANNONBALL RIVER
BREIEN 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
:BEAVER CREEK
LINTON 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
MEDORA 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
WATFORD CITY -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
:KNIFE RIVER
MANNING 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
:SPRING CREEK
ZAP 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:KNIFE RIVER
HAZEN 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
:HEART RIVER
MANDAN -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
:APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF DECEMBER.
JONES
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