144  
FGUS73 KFGF 131444  
ESFFGF  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
844 AM CST THU FEB 13 2020  
   
..DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
 
 
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES BETWEEN JANUARY  
AND SEPTEMBER. THEY WILL NOT BE PROVIDED BETWEEN OCTOBER AND  
DECEMBER. DEPENDING ON THE SEASON, THE HIGH OR LOW WATER  
PROBABILITIES MAY BE OMITTED DUE TO THEIR APPLICABILITY TO  
THE HYDROLOGIC SITUATION.  
   
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
 
 
PRECIPITATION LAST FALL WAS ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE BASIN. HOWEVER, WINTER PRECIPITATION (DECEMBER 2019 THROUGH  
NOW) HAS BEEN BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN  
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE  
BASIN).  
 
CLIMATE OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASED RISK FOR A  
COOLER AND WETTER LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.  
   
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
 
 
THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING A GIVEN LAKE LEVEL IS THE PERCENTAGE  
OF MAXIMUM LAKE LEVEL RISES THAT ARE ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR ALL THE  
YEARS THAT WERE RUN THROUGH THE MODEL USING THE PRECIPITATION  
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE YEARS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE  
OUTLOOK.  
 
INTERPRETATION AID: THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS  
LAKE WILL RISE ABOVE 1451.6 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND  
ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1453.3 FEET.  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS  
 
FROM FEBRUARY 10, 2020 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2020  
 
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
DEVILS LAKE.....  
CREEL BAY 1450.7 1450.8 1451.2 1451.6 1452.0 1452.8 1453.3  
STUMP LAKE.....  
EAST STUMP LAKE 1450.7 1450.8 1451.2 1451.6 1452.0 1452.8 1453.3  
 
   
CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS
 
 
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1449.00 FEET  
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1448.92 FEET  
 
* THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT  
FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:  
...1454.30 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2011  
* PREVIOUS RECORDS:  
...1452.05 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2010  
...1450.93 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2009  
...1449.20 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006  
...1449.18 FEET ON JUNE 17 OF 2004  
...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST 2 OF 2005  
   
OUTLOOK SCHEDULE
 
 
- BETWEEN JANUARY AND MAY, ONLY THE HIGH WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE  
PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER.  
 
- SPECIAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER MANAGEMENT OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED  
IN LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH.  
 
- FOR JUNE AND JULY, BOTH HIGH-WATER AND LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES  
WILL BE PROVIDED.  
 
- FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER, ONLY THE LOW-WATER EXCEEDANCES WILL BE  
PROVIDED WITH VALID PERIODS ENDING AT THE END OF NOVEMBER.  
 
- NO PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE/NON-EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION WILL BE  
GIVEN FROM OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER, SINCE LAKE FREEZE-UP  
LEVELS WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FALL OUTLOOKS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.  
   
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
 
 
THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE  
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE VALID PERIOD USING MULTIPLE  
SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM 1949 TO 2012 AND  
CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER), AND SOIL  
MOISTURE.  
 
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE  
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAA'S  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICES (AHPS).  
 
A YOUTUBE VIDEO ON "HOW TO INTERPRET RIVER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS" IS AT:  
 
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSOEGVSNPV4  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT  
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK  
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS  
ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE AT:  
 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?/WFO=FGF  
 
WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR  
A 7-DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF/LAKE_INFO  
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGRANDFORKS  
AND ON TWITTER AT @NWSGRANDFORKS.  
 

 
WEATHER.GOV/FGF  
NNNN  
 
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