183
FGUS73 KFGF 261721
ESFFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-
081-091-095-097-099-281200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1121 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
..RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.
...MINOR TO MODERATE SPRING FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN...
* THIS 90-DAY OUTLOOK COVERS THE PERIOD FROM 3/2/2026 TO 5/31/2026.
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
* PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING MAJOR, MODERATE, MINOR FLOOD STAGE...
MAJOR FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW RISK (LESS THAN 35 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MAJOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODERATE FLOODING...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK (GREATER THAN 65 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MODERATE
FLOODING AT OSLO AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. IN MINNESOTA, THERE IS
A HIGH RISK OF MODERATE FLOODING AT SABIN ON THE SOUTH BRANCH BUFFALO
RIVER.
THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK (35 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MODERATE
FLOODING AT FARGO/MOORHEAD, GRAND FORKS/EAST GRAND FORKS, AND DRAYTON
ON THE RED RIVER. IN MINNESOTA, THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF MODERATE
FLOODING AT DILWORTH ON THE BUFFALO RIVER AND HALLOCK ON THE TWO
RIVERS RIVER. IN NORTH DAKOTA, THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF MODERATE
FLOODING AT ABERCROMBIE ON THE WILD RICE RIVER, MAPLETON ON THE MAPLE
RIVER, AND HARWOOD ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER.
THERE IS A LOW RISK (LESS THAN 35 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MODERATE
FLOODING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
MINOR FLOODING...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK (GREATER THAN 65 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MINOR
FLOODING AT WAHPETON, FARGO/MOORHEAD, GRAND FORKS/EAST GRAND FORKS,
OSLO, DRAYTON, AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. IN MINNESOTA, THERE IS A
HIGH RISK OF MINOR FLOODING AT DILWORTH ON THE BUFFALO RIVER, HENDRUM
ON THE WILD RICE RIVER, AND HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS RIVER. IN NORTH
DAKOTA, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF MINOR FLOODING AT ENDERLIN AND
MAPLETON ON THE MAPLE RIVER.
THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK (35 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MINOR FLOODING
AT HALSTAD ON THE RED RIVER. IN MINNESOTA, THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF
MINOR FLOODING AT CROOKSTON ON THE RED LAKE RIVER AND ALVARADO ON THE
SNAKE RIVER. IN NORTH DAKOTA, THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF MINOR
FLOODING AT MINTO ON THE PARK RIVER.
OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE CONDITIONS WHICH AFFECT EACH OF THE SEVERAL
FACTORS THAT SIGNIFICANTLY DETERMINE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING WITHIN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH ARE
DISCUSSED BELOW:
* FALL PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE...
OVERALL, FALL PRECIPITATION (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER 2025) WAS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN (EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
NORTHERN BASIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). THE US DROUGHT MONITOR
DEPICTS ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE
WINTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN, INCREASING TO
MODERATE DROUGHT INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
* RIVER FLOWS...
AT THE END OF DECEMBER, USGS ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE RED RIVER
MAINSTEM AND ITS TRIBUTARIES WERE FLOWING NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST WHILE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
* FROST DEPTHS...
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW TO START THE WINTER, A LATE JANUARY COLD SNAP
ALLOWED THE FROST LAYER TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. FROST DEPTH VALUES
HAVE NEARLY STABILIZED AND CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 INCHES
BASIN-WIDE. DEEPER FROST MAY CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER RUNOFF OF SNOWMELT
AND SPRING PRECIPITATION.
* SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...
SNOWFALL (AND ASSOCIATED WATER CONTENT) SINCE DECEMBER 1ST IS
RUNNING 50-75 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN BASIN WHILE 100-150
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. MID-FEBRUARY WARMTH ALLOWED FOR
SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WHICH INFILTRATED THE TOP LAYER OF SOILS
BEFORE REFREEZING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOLLOWED FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH RECEIVED MOSTLY RAIN.
* FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...
- FURTHER SNOWPACK GROWTH,
- RATE OF SNOWMELT/THAW,
- HEAVY RAIN ON SNOW OR FROZEN GROUND DURING THAW OR PEAK FLOOD,
- HEAVY RAIN ON ICE-COVERED RIVERS CAUSING SHORT-TERM ICE JAMS.
* SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE
EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
* LONG TERM OUTLOOK...
CLIMATE OUTLOOKS LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR EARLY MELTING OF
THE SNOWPACK. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE SPRING
(ESPECIALLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN), ALONG WITH THE TIMING/THAW CYCLE OF
ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK, WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT SPRING
FLOOD RISK FACTORS.
NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
THE NEXT 2026 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY,
MARCH 12, 2026.
FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS TWO SECTIONS: THE FIRST GIVES THE
CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING
THEIR MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY. THE SECOND
GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER
STAGES LISTED.
..RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY
VALID FROM MARCH 02, 2026 TO MAY 31, 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS), OR NORMAL,
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL, OR NORMAL, CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/02/2026 - 05/31/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 69 57 23 28 <5 16
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 16 26 <5 13 <5 <5
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : >95 82 50 39 25 25
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 48 37 24 21 7 11
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : 92 59 38 30 5 10
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : >95 63 83 56 13 17
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : 81 47 50 32 5 11
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : 95 52 71 42 33 21
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
SABIN 13.0 15.0 19.0 : >95 61 65 16 <5 <5
HAWLEY 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 19 40 <5 24 <5 <5
DILWORTH 13.0 20.0 26.0 : >95 68 51 20 <5 <5
TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 9 16 <5 7 <5 <5
HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : 66 52 16 21 <5 6
SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : 20 28 <5 10 <5 6
CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 21 24 5 11 <5 7
HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
CROOKSTON 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 60 49 11 24 6 8
ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 75.0 : 11 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 49 27 26 17 <5 <5
HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : >95 61 64 39 6 10
ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 22 <5 13 <5 8
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
ABERCROMBIE 20.0 22.0 28.0 : 64 40 57 33 19 19
VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 21 9 16 7 7 6
LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 19 10 8 9 <5 6
KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : 27 15 17 9 7 9
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : 23 11 16 9 11 9
HARWOOD 84.0 86.0 91.0 : 51 25 39 20 15 9
ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 66 25 11 9 <5 <5
MAPLETON 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 89 37 49 17 7 5
HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 23 17 13 10 <5 <5
MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : 52 22 27 8 <5 <5
WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 14 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : 23 28 22 26 13 21
LEGEND:
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION ( " " NORMAL CONDITIONS)
FT = FEET (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)
..RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE
VALID FROM MARCH 02, 2026 TO MAY 31, 2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 8.7 9.8 10.7 11.6 12.6 13.8 14.7
HICKSON 16.5 17.5 20.0 23.7 28.1 31.5 33.1
FARGO 18.1 19.4 21.1 25.1 30.0 33.2 35.2
HALSTAD 16.4 17.2 21.0 25.8 31.6 36.4 38.4
GRAND FORKS 26.9 28.7 31.3 37.1 41.9 43.8 47.3
OSLO 27.2 29.0 31.7 34.1 35.5 36.2 37.7
DRAYTON 28.3 29.2 33.0 38.0 40.3 41.0 42.5
PEMBINA 38.9 40.5 42.7 46.9 49.6 51.1 52.2
MINNESOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....
SABIN 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.7
BUFFALO RIVER.....
HAWLEY 4.5 4.8 5.3 6.2 7.3 8.5 8.9
DILWORTH 16.5 17.1 18.4 20.0 21.4 22.7 23.1
WILD RICE RIVER.....
TWIN VALLEY 5.2 5.5 6.2 7.2 8.3 9.8 10.6
HENDRUM 15.6 17.5 19.1 22.7 26.9 29.0 30.5
MARSH RIVER.....
SHELLY 7.6 7.9 8.7 10.4 13.0 17.6 19.5
SAND HILL RIVER.....
CLIMAX 11.2 11.4 11.8 15.6 19.2 22.7 26.3
RED LAKE RIVER.....
HIGH LANDING 4.3 4.7 5.5 6.7 8.3 9.7 10.9
CROOKSTON 11.0 11.6 13.5 16.2 18.0 21.3 23.4
SNAKE RIVER.....
ABOVE WARREN 63.2 63.3 63.7 64.6 65.7 67.1 68.6
ALVARADO 102.3 102.8 103.8 105.8 108.1 109.1 109.9
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....
HALLOCK 803.6 804.2 805.5 807.0 807.9 809.2 810.2
ROSEAU RIVER.....
ROSEAU 8.4 8.5 8.9 10.1 11.4 13.3 15.7
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WILD RICE RIVER.....
ABERCROMBIE 14.4 15.5 18.8 23.9 27.0 30.4 31.8
SHEYENNE RIVER.....
VALLEY CITY 8.3 9.0 10.0 11.6 14.3 16.8 17.5
LISBON 7.7 8.4 9.6 11.1 13.9 16.5 17.6
KINDRED 9.9 10.4 11.8 13.5 17.1 20.1 20.7
WEST FARGO DVRSN 12.0 12.9 13.0 15.0 17.4 21.2 21.3
HARWOOD 77.8 78.6 79.8 84.5 89.4 91.2 92.0
MAPLE RIVER.....
ENDERLIN 7.5 7.9 8.9 10.3 11.1 12.4 13.6
MAPLETON 17.4 17.6 19.4 21.0 22.1 22.6 23.5
GOOSE RIVER.....
HILLSBORO 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.8 9.7 13.7 14.9
FOREST RIVER.....
MINTO 3.8 4.1 4.8 6.1 8.1 9.1 9.7
PEMBINA RIVER.....
WALHALLA 4.2 4.8 5.6 6.8 9.1 12.0 13.4
NECHE 7.7 8.8 10.5 13.3 17.6 20.8 21.1
THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS OF THE NWS
COMMUNITY HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (CHPS). THE MODEL IS RUN FOR
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER, SNOW, AND SOIL
CONDITIONS USING 70 YEARS (1949-2019) OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST YEARS DURING THE
TIMEFRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE CRESTS ARE THEN RANKED FROM
LOWEST TO HIGHEST AND ASSIGNED AN EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY.
A YOUTUBE VIDEO ON "HOW TO INTERPRET RIVER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS" IS AT:
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSOEGVSNPV4
THESE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT AS AN INDICATION
OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE VALID PERIOD
OF THE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, NOTE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RIVER LEVELS
MAY STILL REACH LEVELS BELOW THE 95TH PERCENTILE, OR ABOVE THE 5TH
PERCENTILE, VALUES.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH
TYPICALLY THE WEEK AFTER THE THIRD THURSDAY OF THE MONTH.
ADDITIONAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
SEVERAL TIMES LEADING UP TO THE SPRING MELT PERIOD, USUALLY
BI-WEEKLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN MID FEBRUARY AND ENDING IN MID
MARCH.
EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE
PROBABILITY OF STAGE EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY
INTERVALS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS, TOGETHER WITH
EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THEM, CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NWS GRAND FORKS NWPS WEB PAGE BY CLICKING ON "RIVERS AND LAKES"
ABOVE THE MAP AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF.
CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND
DEVILS/STUMP LAKE BASINS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE.
ADDITIONALLY, 7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS ARE ISSUED AT LEAST
ONCE A DAY WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR
EXCEED THEIR DESIGNATED ACTION STAGE THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD.
REFER TO THE SEPARATE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR DEVILS
AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND/OR
LOW-WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT NWS GRAND FORKS AT
701-772-0720.
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGRANDFORKS
AND ON X AT: @NWSGRANDFORKS.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF
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