499  
FNUS73 KBIS 141231  
FWSBIS  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MT. MORIAH...FWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
731 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MAY 14.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD LEAD TO GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL  
REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS AND SHOWERS.  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.  
TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING  
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...19 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING,  
THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST 13 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 15 TO  
16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......8700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST 16 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING,  
THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 26 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (118600 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (168200  
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........34 37 40 41 42 54 50 55  
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCH SCH CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 0 10 10 10 20 30  
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10 0 10 10 10 20 20  
TEMP............70 74 76 79 82 82 82 83  
RH..............53 46 45 41 34 32 33 32  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE NE E SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 12 13 15 15 16 16 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 19 20 20 21 22 22 21  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.4 3.4 5.4 6.6 8.4 8.7 8.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SE SE SE SE S SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 16 18 20 21 23 24 26  
DISPR KT-FT/1K..28 34 54 92 119 168 183 201  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 85 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...53 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST 13 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 14 MPH LATE  
IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 14 TO  
15 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 26 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15  
TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING  
TO THE NORTH 15 TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (178300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO VERY GOOD (135700 KNOT-FT) LATE  
IN THE NIGHT DECREASING TO POOR (6900 KNOT-FT)  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........61 69 83 83 81 85 82 91 93 88 88 88  
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT  
CWR.............0 30 30 30 70 70 70 90 90 90 80 80  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 20 20 40 70 70 80 90 80 90 80 90  
CHC OF THDR (%).20 20 20 30 50 50 50 50 50 50 40 40  
TEMP............81 79 76 69 67 64 62 60 59 58 57 56  
RH..............36 39 47 58 65 72 78 84 84 84 91 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE NE NE N N N NE NE N NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..15 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 19 19 19 19 20 20 19 19 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...7.8 6.5 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW N NW N N NE NW NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.26 24 16 16 15 17 15 15 15 15 15 16  
DISPR KT-FT/1K..178 136 15 7 13 13 9 12 12 12 11 11  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................91 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...44 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 16 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
EAST AROUND 19 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE WEST 19 TO 20 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 32 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 17 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AROUND 21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 23 MPH LATE IN THE  
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 22 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST  
22 TO 30 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (50900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........90 89 91 92 88 84 83 82 82 83 83 84  
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............80 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90  
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90  
CHC OF THDR (%).40 40 40 40 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40  
TEMP............55 55 54 55 58 59 60 60 60 59 58 58  
RH..............94 100 100 100 87 83 83 84 84 84 83 82  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE N N NE E E S SW W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 17 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 22 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N NE N NE N NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 20 21 23 22 22 22 24 26 29 30  
DISPR KT-FT/1K..11 13 16 22 29 28 34 42 45 48 51 51  
 

 
FORECASTER...JOHNSON  
REQUESTED BY...TERRY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2513967.0/BIS  
.DELDT 05/14/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL TERRY_GWILLIAMS@FWS.GOV  
 
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