261  
FNUS73 KBIS 091044  
FWSBIS  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSE PASTURE WF...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
544 AM CDT FRI APR 9 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 CDT ON APRIL 09.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM  
CDT THIS EVENING...  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING  
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS NORTHWEST WINDS  
SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AS  
HIGH AS 30 MPH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING, BUT  
EXPECT CLOUDS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE  
TODAY WILL BE COOLER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO FALL  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, REACHING 30 PERCENT BY MIDDAY AND 15  
PERCENT BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON, JUST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWEST HUMIDITY  
VALUES. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE  
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH HUMIDITY RISING TO NEAR 50 PERCENT AND A  
LOW TEMPERATURE AROUND 30.  
 
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A HIGH AROUND  
70. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT IS FORECAST ONCE  
AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN TODAY THOUGH, OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. WINDY, COOL, AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH  
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING SUNNY  
IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.  
MIN HUMIDITY........16 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 23 TO 29 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (48300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (137900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 6 OR VERY LOW TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........97 99 92 86 79 64 48 32 23 14 5 4  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RS RS RS RN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............36 36 36 37 38 41 44 47 49 52 52 54  
RH..............89 85 79 70 64 52 41 31 25 21 19 17  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..18 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 20 19 18 17  
20 FT WIND GUST.29 28 29 29 28 28 28 28 28 27 26 25  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.5 6.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.26 25 28 29 29 29 29 28 26 25 24 23  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6  
SDSPL KT-FT/100048 50 58 67 72 79 97 108 121 130 137 138  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.  
MAX HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN  
THE EVENING, BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 22 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 2 TO 10  
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (124100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR  
(21000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING  
TO POOR (600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE NIGHT EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............53 52 49 44 41 40 37 36 35 34 33 32  
RH..............17 16 18 22 25 26 29 30 33 35 38 41  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW W W SW S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..15 13 11 8 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.24 21 17 12 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...7.1 6.9 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW W W SW SW S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 21 10 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 5 6  
HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000135 124 21 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (99900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........4 5 8 13  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............31 39 56 65  
RH..............43 40 26 18  
20 FT WIND......S 6G12 S 6G15 SW 10G18 SW 12G19  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 700 3300 6700  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 15 SW 14 W 16  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5  
SDSPL KT-FT/10005 9 41 93  
 

 
FORECASTER...HOLLAN  
REQUESTED BY...JASON WAGNER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2108467.0/BIS  
.DELDT 04/09/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL JASON_WAGNER@FWS.GOV  
 
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