412
FXUS63 KBIS 281450
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
MAY BRING INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ALONG A
BAND OF MID-LEVEL WAA SWEEPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. SO FAR, NO HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED, BUT MESH HAS CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS (NOW MOST LOCATED NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER).
MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35-45
KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL. WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY TAME SO FAR WITH ONLY GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
BEHIND THE INITIAL BROKEN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO SOME
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN RAIN THIS MORNING COULD GET A
SECOND ROUND. WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, IT REMAINS BRIEF IN NATURE, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS NOT A MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE, AND LOW LEVEL JET.
CURRENTLY THE SHEAR IS LOW TO MODEST, AND MOST OF THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY STACKED VERTICALLY AS THEY TAP INTO THE
ABUNDANT ELEVATED CAPE. THIS ELEVATED CAPE WITH THESE STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, COULD STILL BRING A
STRONGER PULSE LIKE STORM WITH SOME NEAR SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LIMITED THE MORE EAST THEY TRAVEL. THUS THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS MORNING STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED YET WILL BE
WORTH MONITORING. THE REST OF TODAY, SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM
JUST TO THE SOUTH, WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE, INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FOUND. A BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WIND COULD ALSO BE FOUND, MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK TO MUCH OF THE AREA AS A RESULT.
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OF
STRONGER SHEAR ALIGNING WITH DECENT CAPE. STRONG CAPPING AT THE
SURFACE WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME, THUS STORMS MAY BE MORE
ELEVATED TODAY. IF A STRONGER ELEVATED STORM CAN DEVELOP, OR A
SURFACE BASED STORM CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CAPPING, THEN A
DISCRETE STORM OR TWO COULD BRING LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. THUS INCREASED THE MESSAGING FOR
HAIL SIZE SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. TORNADO THREAT STILL APPEARS LOW,
GIVEN HIGH LCLS. HOWEVER, WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR BY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE
AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE WINDOW FOR THIS WOULD BE LIMITED
TODAY, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER MESSAGING FOR TODAY. BROAD SURFACE LOW COMBINED
WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHEAR
DIMINISHES TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. OF NOTE IS THE PULLING OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH, AND THE INCREASED PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT. THUS SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES COMING THIS WEEKEND AS THIS SETUP REMAINS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 60 DEGREES.
THIS WEEKEND, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALOFT. SPC HAS A
BROAD MARGINAL RISK EACH DAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY. THE MENTIONED OPEN GULF SCENARIO WILL BRING
INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND PWATS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO
SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN. POCKETS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF QPF ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAX
PRECIPITATION STAMPS. THESE WILL BE HIGHLY THUNDERSTORM
DEPENDENT. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVER WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE OF A
MULTICLUSTER STORM MODE LOOKS TO PLAY OUT SATURDAY, LIKELY
LIMITING THE HAIL THREAT TO AROUND THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SUNDAY WILL BE WORTH MONITORING AS A
MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH, WHICH COULD PROVIDE MORE OF A DISCRETE STORM MODE
BRINGING SLIGHTLY BIGGER HAIL AND WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SATURDAY, YET COULD BE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
ON SUNDAY DEPENDING HOW THE WARM FRONT AND FOLLOWING COLD FRONT
SETUP. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, COOLING
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
MONDAY, A FAIRLY STACKED LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SKIRT TO
OUR NORTH BRINGING GENERALLY DRY YET WINDY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS
SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM A
COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY THESE LOOK TO RETURN MORE MID TO
LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS IS
DEPENDENT ON ANY STRONG WIND DEVELOPING FROM THE MENTIONED
WAVES IN SOUTHWEST, WHICH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LOW.
THUS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST IS ONGOING AS A BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FROM CENTRAL TO EAST. ADDED IN
TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR MOST SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
SECOND BEING THIS EVENING WHICH ONLY HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
PROB30 GROUPS IN WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL SITES. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH EITHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH TODAY,
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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