890
FXUS63 KBIS 110623
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
123 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.
- DAILY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, STRONGEST ON
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT,
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
RAIN IS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS WERE BLENDED IN FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING A TAD FASTER NORTH, SO MODIFIED SKY
COVER TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND TRENDS. SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR TO ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE
FROPA, ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SITUATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO START THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THIS CONTINUES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OVERALL, CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE MINIMAL, AND MAINLY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF POPS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 85. HOWEVER, WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED
SHEAR MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER, ALBEIT
STILL BREEZY, THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA GRADUALLY CHURNS EASTWARD, WHILE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES GENERALLY STARTING AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SIGNIFICANTLY TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. MODERATE CAA AND MODEST
PRESSURE RISES COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ONLY
PROGRESSING ABOUT AS FAR AS ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. THEREFORE, WHILE
THE NBM PRODUCES A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OF FINAL NOTE, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, USUALLY BELOW AVERAGE, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
RAIN MAY TAPER OFF BEFORE REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS STILL ANTICIPATED AT KBIS. KJMS
HAS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING BY MID EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR IFR
LEVELS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 15-25 KTS
ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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