869
FXUS63 KBIS 232310
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, BUT MOST ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED AS SHOWERS.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLOWLY. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM EARLY TO MID
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO SKY COVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
CURRENTLY A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS IN THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT DOWN
THROUGH FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN MONTANA HAS WEAK INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW HAS POPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY WHEN THAT TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE, BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IN
EASTERN ND FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THAT OCCLUDED FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS SIMILAR WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE LOW CONTINUES. THROUGH
THIS WEEK THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
ZONAL FLOW. LITTLE WAVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CREATE
ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
CREATING VERY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AS DEWPOINTS COULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE
STATE. IN THE EVENING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
COULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH LEADING TO THE THREAT CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS OF NOW SPC HAS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IN THEIR
DAY 5 OUTLOOK. ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO MANY CHANGES AS WE ARE
STILL 5 DAYS OUT.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WHERE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STRONG TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH CLOSER OR ABOVE NORMAL AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT KXWA AND KMOT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. PROBABILITY OF A
SHOWER IS A LITTLE HIGHER, ESPECIALLY AT KMOT THROUGH MID
EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. KMOT AND KJMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING
TAF SITES COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...TWH
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