601
FXUS63 KBIS 192012
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALL BUT
MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST. THIS
CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MAKING THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SOUTHWEST A BIT COMPLICATED WITH SNOWPACK
STILL IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY CLEARING SKIES. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, DID ELECT TO BLEND THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ITERATION OF OUR IN-HOUSE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS. A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE POSSIBILITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF THE SNOWPACK AND
CLEAR SKIES END UP COLLOCATED. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE WHOLE STATE, THE GOING FROST ADVISORY
STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SCOOTS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A RELATIVELY PLEASANT MONDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH OUT OF THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOME SNOW
PACK REMAINS HERE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY AND A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BLANKET THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
LINGER ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTH, APPROACHING 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, TOTALS AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN REGARDING SPECIFIC DETAILS AFTER THIS
MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM, BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE THAT YET
ANOTHER STRONG, BUT POTENTIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY WARMER THAN THE
PROFILES OBSERVED DURING THE LAST STORM.
THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THE MEAN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEKEND, SPLIT FLOW ALOFT MAY TAKE SHAPE
WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM OF THE JET POTENTIALLY OFFERING A BREAK
IN THE PARADE OF STRONGER, MORE MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY-FLOW
SHORTWAVES. THIS SHOULD ALSO AFFORD SOME DEGREE OF WARMING AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL TO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN LINGERING OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 12 MPH ACROSS THE EAST TO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WHILE
SHIFTING DUE EAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH
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