927  
FXUS63 KBIS 221412  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
812 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 812 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
A WEAK DEFORMATION BAND OF FLURRIES MIXED WITH VERY LIGHT  
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS  
MORNING. THIS BAND SEEMS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE RAP 850 MB RH  
FIELD. OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS PRECIPITATION WELL.  
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING TO CAPTURE THE  
PRECIPITATION. ALSO MADE UPDATES TO SKY COVER, WHICH IS ALSO BEING  
HANDLED BEST BY THE RAP.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE  
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TODAY AND TEMPERATURES RISE  
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS  
WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY'S  
COLD FRONT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY  
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL START QUIET AND RATHER MILD COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES  
AS OF LATE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS, WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 30S  
OVER THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO  
BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS  
DEPICTING LITTLE OR EVEN NO SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THERE  
WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BUT AT THIS TIME WE  
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE BIGGER  
CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW THAT  
SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
THE SIGNALS FOR A POTENTIAL HIGHER END EVENT: VERY STRONG PRESSURE  
RISES, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
REMAIN. MIXING WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF FLUFFY UNCRUSTED  
SNOW EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAY SEE SOME  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT  
THE BLOWABLE SNOW, BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD STILL HAVE PLENTY OF  
BLOWABLE SNOW. THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS THAT AT  
THIS POINT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH IS WARRANTED. WHETHER THE WATCH  
BECOMES A WARNING OR AN ADVISORY REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT THERE IS  
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE  
TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  
 
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD AIR THAT MOVES IN BEHIND  
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FALLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS  
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA  
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,  
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -40.  
 
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH NUMEROUS CLIPPER SYSTEMS  
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND BRISK WINDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO  
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVERALL, DESPITE A WARMER DAY OR TWO MIXED IN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO MVFR  
AT ALL TERMINALS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SOME LINGERING LIGHT  
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL RISE AND BEGIN TO  
SCATTER BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021-022.  
 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FOR NDZ023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...HOLLAN  
SHORT TERM...AJ  
LONG TERM...AJ  
AVIATION...AJ  
 
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