308
FXUS63 KBIS 252029
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, QUICKLY
FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
- INTERMITTENT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.
- A SHORT WINDOW OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DOMINATED THE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FRONT IS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
AROUND 8K FEET ON TOP OF A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER ARE
PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND SO
FAR. THESE SHOWERS COULD MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WE DO STILL HAVE A MENTION
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THIS POTENTIAL HAS
BEEN DECREASING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS, WITH
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY MILD ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY, WITH 60S SOUTH AND 30S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. WINDS
ARE BREEZY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS
FORECAST. WE ARE KEEPING A MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTY, BUT AT THIS
POINT THINKING THIS IS A SHORT WINDOW AND VERY BORDERLINE SINCE
THE WINDS HAVE NOT QUITE MATERIALIZED, AT LEAST CONSISTENTLY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH, WITH SOME LOW- AND MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALTHOUGH NO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FEATURES. POPS SPREAD WEST TO EAST AND ARE FAVORED RAIN THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT, AS THE COLDER AIR IS SLOW TO MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH THE STATE. CAMS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE IS
A BRIEF WINDOW WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BEFORE THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, BUT OVERALL NOT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THIS. PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. LOW SNOW CHANCES PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS ALSO
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TO OUR WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT COOL, IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, WITH A MORE NOTICEABLE
IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE WIDESPREAD
50S AND 60S. LATEST NBM HAS A BIT OF A BREEZE EACH DAY, BUT NO
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEING DOMINATED BY
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING, LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER, NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE QUITE A LARGE
SPREAD IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST 20 DEGREES),
SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK, IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN THE KMOT AREA WITH LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND BECOME MORE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA, AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS EVENING AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT, WITH INITIALLY
RAIN EXPECTED, BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OUTSIDE OF ANY MAJOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCLUDING KMOT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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