684
FXUS63 KBIS 031404
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
904 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE ARE RAPIDLY MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY, THOUGH LOCALIZED BRIEF STRONG WINDS GUSTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT IS BRINGING IN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW, ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS 40
TO 50 MPH. MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS, AND ADDED IN MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THESE POPS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WITH THIS WILL COME CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM LOOKS FAIRLY UNORGANIZED AND MAY CONTINUE TO BE AS THIS
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW
INSTABILITY COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL THIS
MORNING, WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER VERY LOW. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL BE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. LOWERING RH VALUES COULD BRING SOME INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY, MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACH 30 PERCENT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY THIS FRONT AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S,
WITH LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES MAY ALSO BRING SOME COOLER
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. NBM 10TH PERCENTILE
FORECAST STILL KEEPS MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, THUS
CONFIDENCE IN A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SURFACE
HIGH WILL THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE STATE FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO SETTLE
IN FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 80S MONDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL BRING LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES, WITH 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST. A MAINLY DRY SURFACE LOW PASSING
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MONDAY, BECOMING A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY. THE
RESULT COULD BE SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH DAY,
TO PERHAPS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY'S FORECAST DID LOWER THE WINDS SOMEWHAT ON
TUESDAY, WHICH LOWERED THIS FIRE WEATHER THREAT SLIGHTLY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE MORE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE LOWER RH IN THE WEST. THUS WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS YET HOLD OFF ON NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MESSAGING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE
SPREADS REMAIN SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND IS NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
CLUSTERS INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO OUR WEST
AS THE FAVORED WEATHER PATTERN. THIS FAVORS A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST AND THE MENTIONED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END NEXT WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE MAY BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE. FOR NOW
PLACED IN PROB30 TO SITES WITH A CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY, AND
MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST, INCLUDING KJMS, THIS MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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