173
FXUS63 KBIS 011140
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A LARGER AREA OF FROST MAY
RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- AN OVERALL MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. LOW CHANCES
MAY RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS BRINGING PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST THIS MORNING. REPORTS ARE STILL NOT QUITE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY, WITH A SURFACE
FRONT STALLING NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS HIGH COULD BRING SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BE FOUND THE REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES. SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. ALONG THE MENTIONED STALLED
BOUNDARY COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES
EASTWARD TONIGHT, BRINGING A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
THE WEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE FOUND WITH THIS HIGH
TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND
EASTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOCAL POLICY DOES
STOP ISSUANCE OF FROST HIGHLIGHTS ON OCTOBER 1ST, THUS WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE GOING FORWARD IF NEEDED. NBM 10TH PERCENTILE WOULD
HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THIS
WOULD REQUIRE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
CHANGING FLOW ALOFT TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOOKS TO LIFT THE
STALLED FRONT AND BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. THIS COULD
LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOWS, THUS LEFT IN THE NBM FORECAST FOR NOW.
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THIS
LIFTING FRONT, ALTHOUGH WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE ON
FRIDAY, WHILE A SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE RESULT WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDS ON FRIDAY.
THE INCREASED GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A MAINLY DRY SURFACE LOW COULD THEN
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD AND IN
THE 40S.
THIS SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FOR ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE
MENTIONED FRONT COULD BE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH LOWS BACK
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WITH
RIDGING ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS COULD AGAIN BE
FOUND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
CLUSTERS INDICATE RIDGING TO PERHAPS A FLAT RIDGE (ZONAL FLOW)
PATTERN COULD BE FOUND TO START NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IS A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW WEAK WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
AT TIMES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW. AN INCREASED SURFACE GRADIENT ON
MONDAY COULD ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ALSO LOOK TO BE MILD AND GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FOUND TODAY, WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND COULD
RETURN TODAY, MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KBIS AND EASTWARD, INCLUDING
KJMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE NIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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