316
FXUS63 KBIS 271101
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
601 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THIS
MORNING.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WIDESPREAD MIST CONTINUES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 WITH
VISIBILITY GENERALLY REMAINING IN EXCESS OF 1 MILE. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AS THE SUN RISES. HOWEVER, BUFKIT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA THIS
MORNING, WHILE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE RESULTANT LOSS OF FORCING WILL RESULT IN ANY
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE TO TAPER OFF.
HOWEVER, SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A CLIPPERESQUE SURFACE
LOW PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST
MAINLY DURING THE DAY TODAY, AND THEN TO THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A BIT COOLER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX RATHER THAN
RAIN ITSELF. EITHER WAY, EVEN IF IT SNOWS, ACCUMULATIONS ARE
UNLIKELY.
OTHER THAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS STRATUS CONTINUES TO SINK
EARLY THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD FOG MAY DEVELOP. JUST HOW DENSE
IT BECOMES AND OVER HOW LARGE OF AN AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SEEMS THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG. THOUGH BREEZY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE (WEST) AND JUST OFF THE SURFACE (SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY) MAY KEEP IT MORE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
WITH MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD ANY HEADLINES BE NEEDED.
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST,
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THEN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS, MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THOUGH SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
AT TIMES.
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP NORTH AND
EAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER, HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK, HIGHS ARE FAVORED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH, WITH SOME VARIANCE DAY TO DAY. LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S, THOUGH MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THIS WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR AVERAGE
TO SEASONABLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH LIFR
CEILINGS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MIST IS PRESENT
UNDER SAID LIFR STRATUS. CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES FROM MIST ARE
MOSTLY MVFR/IFR, HOWEVER, PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY AS THE SUN RISES. OTHERWISE, A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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