452
FXUS63 KBIS 211048
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
548 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
CURRENTLY, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WERE IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG WERE NOTED WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD WERE CLOSE.
FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WESTERN ND WILL SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS
(AROUND 15-20 MPH) MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS, BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE SOUTHWEST. WE
UTILIZED A BLEND OF NBM AND NBM90 FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TODAY WAS A 50/50 BLEND WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EACH LEANING
TOWARDS THE WARMER NBM90 TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD, TO RECORD
HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND FRIDAY, WITH A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE MAINLY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE, AS HIGH AS AROUND 600 J/KG OVER WESTERN ND AROUND 00Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL CIN
WILL REMAIN AND WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY, USHERED
IN BY THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST ND, WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80
DEGREES AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE FAR SOUTHWEST COULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY,
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE STATE. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE STATE. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY FILTERS INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE
STRONG WINDS. THUS IF THERE ARE SOME NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS,
THEY WOULD BE BRIEF. THE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO AID IN
KEEPING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT
MAY APPROACH OUR LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. CURRENTLY THE
NBM IS ADVERTISING ONLY SOME HIT AND MISS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PICK UP TO 5-15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING. ONLY A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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