334
FXUS63 KBIS 071749
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MUCH COLDER WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER SLIDES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, AND OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL MEAN HIGHS ON THURSDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY,
MAINLY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND VICINITY, TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THEN AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW
TO MID 80S SOUTHWEST.
WE THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS AN
ENERGETIC TROUGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY/DIG OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A POTENT BUT DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY
WHILE TIMING STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S BUT
THE NORTHWEST MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH HERE BEFORE PEAK HEATING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD
TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE A FEW UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S REMAIN POSSIBLE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING HERE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THEN ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. A FEW READINGS
IN THE UPPER 20S WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
FREEZE HEADLINES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE FLOW THEN SPLITS AS AN UPPER LOW
CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ANOTHER MESSY SHORTWAVE
OR TWO CROSSES THE REGION IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MEDIUM/HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DON'T APPEAR TO BE TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME WITH NBM 24-HOUR QPF PROBABILITIES OF QUARTER INCH OR
GREATER MAXING OUT IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, SOME SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
MODEL AGREEMENT THEN BREAKS DOWN TOWARDS MIDWEEK BUT PROGRESSIVE
RIDGING IS FAVORED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY GIVE US
AT LEAST A LITTLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE MODELS
STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE NBM SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COLDER SIDE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 30S FOR LOWS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MAY LEAD TO
A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR HIGHS BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS RETURN THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...ZH/HOLLAN
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