387
FXUS63 KBIS 180553
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY BRING SOME MINOR FLOODING AT TIMES.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE NEXT PUSH OF SHOWERS HAS BEGUN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE, BUT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.
THESE WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT. LIGHTNING HASN'T BEEN OBSERVED IN A WHILE, THOUGH AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY DIMINISHING. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. FLOOD ADVISORIES IN THE NORTH HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN THAT AREA.
THE NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER REMAINS HIGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AFTER
SUNSET WILL INHIBIT THIS POTENTIAL. THUS THE SPS FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS HAS BEEN ALSO ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
RAIN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH, WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
FOUND IN THE NORTH AND WEST. MADE SOME MINOR POP UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE NEXT
ROUND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS END, THERE COULD BE SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS OR PERHAPS
BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES AS THE NON SUPERCELL PARAMETER IS
ELEVATED. HAVE PUT AN SPS TO COUNTIES WITH THIS POTENTIAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, CONVECTIVE RAIN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HAVE PUT OUT A
FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDER HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED HERE, AN ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OVER WESTERN AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND, WE ARE SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AS MENTIONED EARLIER TODAY, THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR HERE, BUT INSTABILITY IS IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WK SURFACE
VORTICITY. THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER CONTINUES TO
TICK UP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A LANDSPOUT THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX
HEATING. THINK THIS THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE AS HEATING WANES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG
TO WESTERN ND, NEAR THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD, OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
A COUPLE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS (EASTERN MT AND CENTRAL
SD) ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THEY LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CONVERGING OVER
SOUTHERN ND/NORTHERN SD LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT,
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER, WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THAT MAY KEEP
AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST (ALTHOUGH CURRENT NBM POPS ARE PRETTY MUCH NON-
EXISTENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT). THEN ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN
THE LATEST 6-10 DAY CPC OUTLOOK WHICH IS ALSO FAVORING A WARM
AND DRY PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME (SEPT 23-27).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS. AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF LIGHTNING AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY TIME IS VERY LOW.
OR IN OTHER WORDS, EVERY TERMINAL IS FAR LESS LIKELY THAN
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
NORTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER PROGRESSION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TELKEN
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