572
FXUS63 KBIS 142310
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES.
- HEAT RISK WILL BE AT LEAST MAJOR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW BUT STEADY
COOLING TREND IS THEN FAVORED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AS THE DAYLIGHT HEATING
SUBSIDES. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
RIDGE AND THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. DANGEROUS HEAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS
NEAR 100 AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS IN THE 80S. WHILE LOWS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO COME DOWN
SOME, PROVIDING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S
SOUTH TO THE 40S AND 50S NORTH. THUS APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE LOWER TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. OF
CONCERN ARE MAJOR TO POCKETS OF EXTREME REMAINING IN THE NWS
HEAT RISK MAPS. SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LENGTH OF HIGH
HEAT, WHILE PART OF IT COULD BE FORECAST AIR TEMPERATURES
COMING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS IN SOME AREAS. LOOKING AT WET BULB
GLOBAL TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE DESIGNED FOR THOSE
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, AREAS OF HIGH TO EXTREME
LOOK TO REMAIN WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THUS DECIDED
TO REPLACE THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE, COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS. OVERALL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW, ALTHOUGH
ADEQUATE CAPE AND SHEAR AT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION COULD BRING
SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR VECTOR
LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL OVERALL LIMIT
THE HAIL AND WIND THREATS. THIS COULD HOWEVER BRING SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH PERSISTANT THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALL RELIANT ON
STORMS DEVELOPING IN A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AS WELL. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW. THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS MORE
TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE CWA. THUS A MAINLY DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. GREEN FUELS SHOULD LIMIT THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT, ALTHOUGH BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY
BE FOUND ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
TO START THEN FLATTEN LATER THIS WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS FLATTENING OCCURS WHEN WEAK DISTURBANCES
AND POSSIBLY A WEAK COLD FRONT RETURN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CSU-MLP AND SPC SHOWING LOW THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN ALTHOUGH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD LIMIT THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE HEAT RISK FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE WET BULB GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INDEX DOES STILL SHOW
SOME MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD
STILL MEAN SOME IMPACTS TO THOSE OUTDOORS ARE POSSIBLE. BEHIND
THE MENTIONED FRONT COULD BE SOME COOLING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS SHOWING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50TH PERCENTILE RANGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD ALSO START
NEXT WEEK BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR AND CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT KXWA
AND KMOT HOWEVER THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE IN THE 00Z TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS DIMINISHING. GUSTS ARE FORECAST
TO PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-
051-057>062.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM
CDT /9 PM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-
035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-057>062.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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