388
FXUS63 KBIS 230854
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE RED FLAG WARNING.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN MUCH COLDER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
- BREEZY TODAY. WINDY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
CURRENTLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN
MONTANA WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND. SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
AREA, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR TODAY, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL MONTANA, WITH A
SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER THE ND/MT BORDER NEAR SIDNEY MONTANA
BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST FROM THE
LOW THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ND, ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. RECORD HIGHS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DICKINSON AND BISMARCK THIS AFTERNOON. A
PASSING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION LIFTS
THROUGH THE STATE, BUT QPF AMOUNTS WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT (A
TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO). BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WHERE SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL
RAIN COULD OCCUR.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL COVER THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. OVERALL, THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE
MAX WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE
LOWER, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF THE FALL-RISE COUPLET ARE VERY SIMILAR. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45-50 KNOTS OF WIND ATOP A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT COULD POTENTIALLY WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS NOT IDEAL. THE DEPTH OF
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IS RIGHT
AROUND 850 MB, SO THIS COULD BE BETTER TOO. THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS NOT IDEAL EITHER. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
ISALLOBARIC CHANGE IS SHORT LIVED, BUT IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL
THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT OVER A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE INITIAL PUSH OF
STRONG WINDS WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE WEST, WE WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE 850 JET AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET TONIGHT WOULD SUGGEST
THAT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND WOULD BE THE AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SUSTAINED ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. AS YOU GET INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ND YOU GET FARTHER AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND THE GREATEST ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. COLD ADVECTION ALSO
DROPS OFF A BIT. WITH THE LATE TIMING AND UNCERTAINTIES
REMAINING, WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS COULD BE DONE BEFORE MIDDAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE
FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES, AND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS, COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY, NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION AFOREMENTIONED SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A BIT THEN LIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT, BUT
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH OUR COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA BY MID
TO LATE IN THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
LLWS TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT KJMS. LLWS WILL RETURN TO
KJMS, KBIS AND KMOT AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AT
TAF SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE.
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE FAR WEST, BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TODAY 15 TO 30 KTS WILL TURN
WESTERLY TONIGHT 20 TO 35 KTS WITH SOME HIGH GUSTS, AND
CONTINUE WEST TO NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VERY WARM AND DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND
20 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS
AND VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES IN FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR GOLDEN VALLY, BILLINGS, STARK,
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES. IN THESE AREAS, IT WILL BE WARM
AND BREEZY TO WINDY AS WELL, BUT HUMIDITIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
DROP AS LOW AS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY, THE RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS WHERE THE STRONG WINDS
OVERCOME ANY MITIGATING FACTORS OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IF ANY FIRES ARE ONGOING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME TO TAKE THE STRONG
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO ACCOUNT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-043.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...
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