387
FXUS63 KBIS 241123
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THERE HAVE
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. DIDN'T ADD ANY THUNDER BUT
DID THROW IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH 15 UTC FOR THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST OVER 40 MPH. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL ND
AS OF JUST BEFORE 4AM CDT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH, WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 45-50
MPH. THE FALL-RISE COUPLET HAS PASSED BUT PRESSURE RISES, STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12-15
UTC BEFORE DROPPING OFF LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAY HAVE TO MONITOR THE WINDS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TO SEE IF WE WOULD POSSIBLY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR A WHILE, IF SO, THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL RATHER THAN THE JRV.
LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA IS QUICKLY
DRYING UP AS IT PUSHES EAST. IF THERE IS ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST IT WILL BE DONE BY 12 UTC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ERODE THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME READINGS IN THE TEENS
POSSIBLE.
ON SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHWARD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES SOUTHERN ND BY LATE IN THE DAY, BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO STAY SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SLIPPING INTO THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
MONDAY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH AS WHETHER
TO LIFT THIS SYSTEM INTO ND OR KEEP IT SOUTH. CURRENTLY THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, AND THEY DO DIMINISH AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CANADA, THERE IS A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR SOME BENEFICIAL LIQUID WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE NBM 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A QUARTER OF PRECIP
ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY RANGES FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT FROM
HETTINGER TO BISMARCK AND CARRINGTON, UP TO AROUND 80 PERCENT IN
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY (DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES).
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING, A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PRECIP WOULD
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN TO BEGIN WITH ON MONDAY, BUT AS WE
COOL OFF MONDAY NIGHT, WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE A TRANSITION TO
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, THEN POSSIBLY ALL SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE NBM IS SHOWING SOME LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES
(20 TO 60%) OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND, DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME
(ENDING 12Z TUESDAY). THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE CENTERED
SOUTH AND WEST OF BISMARCK ALONG THE SD BORDER.
THERE IS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AROUND MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND THIS
MORNING. MAY INCLUDE A COUPLE HOURS OF VCSH TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
AT KJMS. MVFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL ND ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS VERY DRY AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THEN ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-
040>044-046-047-050-055>062.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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