350
FXUS63 KBIS 291740
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA, THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER MATCH WHERE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING. ALSO INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CAM GUIDANCE AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTIONS DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THAT THERE WON'T BE A RUMBLE OR TWO SOMEWHERE, BUT THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER NOT OCCURRING THAN OCCURRING AT THIS
POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
SHOWERS FROM TODAY'S UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT ARE PRESENTLY
LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ARE GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY, REMOVED MENTIONS OF THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
MINIMAL UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. TODAY'S UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY MAKING SOME SHOWERS IN MT/WY. THIS COULD
START SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LIGHT
WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
SURFACE HIGH UNDER WEAK RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA TO
START THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY, POSSIBLY ENDING THE STREAK OF 90 DEGREE
READINGS OR HIGHER FOR SOME SITES. LATER TODAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH UP AND OVER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE RESULT COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
TONIGHT, THE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH
EASTWARD. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS LIMITED THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT
DON'T RECEIVE RAIN TONIGHT CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
THE LONG TERM PERIOD SEES A NORTHWEST FLOW BECOME A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WHICH LOOKS TO HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY AND BRING LIMITED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPIATION.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. A
RIDGE IN THE WEST THEN AMPLIFIES AND BRINGS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR STEADY NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY LOWER
SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE SOME LIGHT BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
AT TIMES. THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO FIRE WEATHER
DANGER, ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK THE MENTIONED RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN AND
TURN INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN COULD BE
FILL WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT TIMES, PERHAPS PROVIDING FOR
A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME 90 DEGREE
READINGS RETURN FOR MANY AREAS. SOME LOW AFTERNOON RH MAY BE FOUND
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE LIMITING THE
FIRE WEATHER DANGER AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL TAF
SITES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SHOWERS, BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
AT KDIK AND KBIS WHERE VCSH IS MENTIONED.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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