036
FXUS63 KBIS 301759
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH SNOW CHANCES AREA WIDE TONIGHT, WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION.
- BREEZY TO WINDY MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOW MIXED WITH SOME RAIN TO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS EXPECTED, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
FORCING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH
THE BANDED SNOW ALL BUT OVER. HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 18Z (1PM) AS EARLIER THIS WAS EXTENDED.
COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINGERING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
FORCING ALONG WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE COLD FROPA
WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW, DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT, LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
COUPLED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO BANDED PRECPITATION ACROSS MY NORTH THIS
MORNING. OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS MY
ENTIRE NORTH THROUGH 16Z (11AM CDT), WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED. WILL KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE TIER OF
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION.
STILL EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS FORCING PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SOLAR ENERGY INCREASES (ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES
WARMING). SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET HEADLINES GO AT 16Z, BUT WILL
REEVALUATE CLOSER TO THEN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR DIVIDE AND BURKE
COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW UNTIL 11AM. A NARROW BAND OF
MOSTLY SNOW CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MORE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EAST. JUST SOUTH OF
THE BAND OF SNOW, WEBCAMS LOOK TO HAVE FOG THAT MAY BE
DEPOSITING ICE ON THE ROADS VIA NDDOT ROAD REPORTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
CURRENTLY THERE IS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN, TURNING
INTO SNOW, IS ON GOING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT FULLY
SUPPORTING THAT IDEA. HERE AT 2AM, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP ARE REMAINING SNOW ALL
THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS PRECIP, ON THE POSITIVE VORTICITY
SIDE OF THE WAVE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SWEEP IN WEST TO EAST, FORMING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THIS TIME IN THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE QPF THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS AROUND 0.25 INCHES IN THE
NORTH, RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS EVENING THE QPF IS MUCH LOWER AND
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE BREEZY
WINDS IN THE WEST, NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
TONIGHT THAT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE
STATE, CREATING BRIEF PERIODS OF WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH. THE
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO 30 IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE'S
LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW,
WHILE A TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE FORM ON THE WEST COAST. IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FORM A LOW, AND
SLIGHTLY INFLUENCE THE DAKOTAS. CHANCES (40%) FOR SNOW WILL
LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THURSDAY A BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, CREATING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE CURRENT NBM SNOWFALL FORECAST IS A LARGE SWATH OF
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGE IS 1 TO 7 INCHES, SHOWING THE RANGE OF
DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES YET. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 4 INCHES ARE
55 PERCENT AND 30 PERCENT FOR 6 INCHES. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
HAS HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR 4 INCHES, REACHING UP TO 80
PERCENT. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW, NOW IT'S JUST THE TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY STILL WITH THIS ONE, BUT
EITHER WAY IT WILL SNOW AN IMPACTFUL AMOUNT SOMEWHERE IN THE
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DETERIORATE
TO LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING-EARLY TUE MORNING FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN, BUT
WITH SNOW MIXING IN AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. PEAK WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...NH
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