928
FXUS63 KBIS 040316
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH LABOR DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
EXITED WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT REMAINS GENERALLY ON
TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OR SO. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH HIGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, WITH
RIDGE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVER OUR AREA, MAIN AREA OF
SEVERE STORMS HAS NOW PUSHED INTO MINNESOTA, WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WITH THAT SAID, BELIEVE THE SEVERE RISK HAS BACKED OFF FOR US
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD MORNING CONVECTION WE HAD WHICH REALLY
"WASHED OUT" THE ATMOSPHERE, WHICH HAS YET TO RECOVER TO MAKE
SEVERE A GREAT POSSIBILITY. BY THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A QUIET NIGHT ON TAP.
FRIDAY WILL BRING NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MANY
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, WITH QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID, SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. NOTABLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS AND DRY FUELS TO
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO SLOPE AND BOWMAN
COUNTIES, AND NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO MANY OTHER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, WARM AIRMASS REMAINS WELL SITUATED OVER THE AREA
WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST AND UPPER LOW
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORT WAVES PUSHING UP THE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW START PUSHING INTO THE AREA STARTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ON SUNDAY, SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH MOIST
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. A
VARIETY OF WAVES EJECT AROUND THE UPPER LOW BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS EVENING WHEN
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW STARTS EJECTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. PATTERN THEN REMAINS A BIT UNSETTLED AS WE APPROACH
MID-WEEK WITH NEAR DAILY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
MVFR CIGS REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING, AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
BY 16Z FRIDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME ACROSS THE
AREA.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25-35 KNOTS AT TIMES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ040-043.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JC
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