521
FXUS63 KBIS 281137
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.
- RAIN LIKELY TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK, BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
VISIBILITY HAS DETERIORATED IN BISMARCK, MANDAN, AND THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THEREFORE, ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL
10 AM CDT FOR EASTERN MORTON, EASTERN SIOUX, BURLEIGH, AND
EMMONS COUNTIES. PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY PERSISTS EAST OF
BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTY AS WELL, THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE, ALSO ISSUED
AN SPS UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR COUNTIES DIRECTLY EAST OF THE
ADVISORY, INCLUDING THOSE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH
SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. IN THIS CASE,
THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN PLENTY WARM TO ENSURE PRECIPITATION
FALLS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART, RAIN SHOULD BE
LIGHT, THOUGH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, REMAINING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STRATUS WILL ALSO CLEAR OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
ONCE ANY PRECIPITATION ENDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY, QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, AN UPPER PACIFIC LOW OFF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL
GRADUALLY CHURN TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THIS LOW
GRADUALLY ENTERS OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. COME SATURDAY, LOW RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
ENTER THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR A
SLOWER PROGRESSION THAT HOLDS OFF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHERMORE, A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE FAVORED TO DEVELOP, WHICH WOULD
LIKELY KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND POSSIBLY ALSO
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN, INCLUDING WHAT HAPPENS WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING HIGH AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK, AND THEN THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ARE FAVORED TO BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE MOST DAYS, FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FREQUENTLY RANGING FROM
THE 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH TO FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK, AND
MOSTLY IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE THIS WEEKEND. A FEW 60 DEGREE
READINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. SEASONABLE LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ARE PRESENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING, THOUGH THAT MAY PARTIALLY BE
A RESULT OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER A SIMILAR AREA. RAIN AND
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF MVFR STRATUS IS ALSO ENTERING FAR
NORTHWESTERN ND. THIS MAY IMPACT KXWA FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
THEN ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOG
INTO ANY TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ035-046-
060-062.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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