266
FXUS63 KBIS 111726
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY, WITH DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
110, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
- VERY LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER NORTH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL HOT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S ACROSS
THE STATE. SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR HAS MOVED
EAST AND DISSIPATED. WEAK CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT IS HANGING
ON BUT MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST. SOME CAMS SHOW THIS CONVECTION
MAKING IT INTO ND BEFORE DISSIPATING, OTHERS DON'T WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AND MONITOR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT DEVELOPING TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA HAS PRODUCED A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
IS RACING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ND AT THIS TIME.
ADDED A SMALL AREA OF POP TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE AS IT ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE THIS
CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO ND THIS MORNING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND CAN ADD SOME SMALL POPS IF NEEDED.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES. NBM ENSEMBLE SPREADS REMAIN PRETTY LOW TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VERY HOT, NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. IN ADDITION, RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY, THERE IS A MINOR, BUT DEFINITE DROP IN THE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES, BUT AN INCREASE IN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE DROP
IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTH AND WE MAY END UP SEEING A
PRETTY LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NEXT WEEK. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
NORTH FROM THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WE DO SEE LOW TO
MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH OF LOW
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS TO WHETHER THE RIDGE
POPS BACK UP, OR REMAINS FLATTENED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL BRINGS SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR KMOT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-
040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.
UPDATE...JOHNSON/TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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