261
FXUS63 KBIS 021805
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST (COLDER AND BELOW
NORMAL) TO SOUTHWEST (MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL) THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VISIBILITY HAS GREATLY IMPROVED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. OVERALL, THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL, BUT
STILL LIGHT, ON RADAR IMAGERY IN FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT DOES STILL EXIST IN SEVERAL AREAS.
WILL RE-EVALUATE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AROUND 10 PM CST TO SEE
IF ANY COUNTIES CAN BE SAFELY REMOVED.
A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS INDUCED SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WAS ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL, WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE LOW TO MEDIUM LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN LATER TODAY.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD A
MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATER
TODAY. RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE DEPTH AND TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A NEAR- SURFACE SATURATED LAYER AND VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR ICE BEING INTRODUCED FROM ALOFT. VERTICAL
MOTION WITHIN THE SATURATED LAYER IS UPWARD, BUT NOT VERY
STRONG, AND CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WHAT WE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT WITH IMPACTFUL FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE AREA OF CONCERN DEVELOPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY EXPANDS AND
DRIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION.
WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS, SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH WEB CAMS IN THIS AREA STILL SHOWING
AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
CURRENTLY, WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS CONTRIBUTING TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE REGION AT TIMES AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT
TICKLES A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE, WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS CONTINUES TO BE WHERE
HIGH RES CAMS PUT THE HIGHER DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES AND WHERE
SFC OBS HAVE BEEN LOWEST THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, SO WILL
MAINTAIN FOG HEADLINES HERE AS IS WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS MODELS DO NOT FAVOR THESE AREAS AND VIS
OBSERVATIONS HAVE FAILED TO JUSTIFY ANY HEADLINES.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS
QUASI-STATIC THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST. AN EMBEDDED WAVE LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THOUGH WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL FORCING.
WESTERN US UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, DEAMPLIFYING AS
IT DOES AND ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS STILL DEPICT AN EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY, THOUGH NBM ONLY HAS LOW
POPS BELOW 20% SO MOST ENSEMBLES ARE DRY WITH THIS FEATURE.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MOISTURE THOUGH, AND COULD COME IN THE FORM
OF MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN CONSIDERING WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SPREADING EAST OVER SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ACROSS
MUCH OF MY AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL STICK
WITH NBM AND MONITOR TRENDS.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION. STILL SOME SIGNS OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
MATERIALIZING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ANY IMPACTS FOR OUR
AREA REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINS THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE WITH IFR CEILINGS, AND SOME EMBEDDED AREAS OF LIFR.
MEANWHILE, NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE MAINTAIN A VFR
CEILING. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR LOW CEILINGS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH TRENDING CLOSER TO MVFR LEVELS.
CONFIDENCE IN KJMS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON HAS LOWERED,
BUT WILL STILL KEEP A PREVAILING PERIOD OF VFR BEFORE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CEILINGS RETURNING THIS EVENING. IN NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING KMOT, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITY ARE FROM KXWA TO KMOT AND DOWN TOWARDS KJMS, AND ALL
POINTS TO THE NORTH. FOG COULD ALSO RETURN TO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR 10-15 KT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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