668
FXUS63 KBIS 050900
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
- LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
- SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS TURNING INCREASINGLY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. WITH THIS, UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LOWS THIS MORNING FROM
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST FROM
THE UPPER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
IN. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CAA AND
PRESSURE RISES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR VERY LIGHT PRECPITATION PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE FIRST 1KM OF THE COLUMN OUT OF CANADA. WHILE MAINLY FALLING
AS FLURRIES PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAINS COMPARABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER
REMAINS COMPARABLY SHALLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH COULD STILL
ALLOW FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY MORNING AS NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIE OUT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
PRECPITATION AND FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN WARMING TREND WE'VE EXPERIENCED
THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL
LIKELY STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA,
UP TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY, THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AN
INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
REVEALS THAT THIS SATURATED LAYER MAY BE FAIRLY SHALLOW, ONLY
THROUGH THE FIRST 1/2KM OR SO, AND THUS ANY LIGHT PRECPITATION
THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.
THE ENSEMBLE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE RETURN OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, SPLIT BETWEEN A BROADLY WARMER
SOLUTION (50 PERCENT OF MEMBERS) WHICH ADVERTISES THE
REDEVELOPING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND A COOLER SOLUTION (50
PERCENT MEMBERSHIP), THAT INSTEAD FAVORS A NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. THIS COOLER SOLUTION IN PARTICULAR
WOULD FAVOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. IN THIS SCENARIO WE COULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THAT, OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW (LOW CHANCES). WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LINGERING MONDAY,
THIS PRECPITATION MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A MIX OF WINTRY
PRECPITATION, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW BY TUESDAY AS
WE CONTINUE TO COOL. LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
ARRIVAL FOR A STRONG, POSITIVELY TILTED PACIFIC TROUGH MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN CONUS BY MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD
SIGNAL A PATTERN CHANGE OUT OF THE VERY WARM AND COMPARABLY DRY
CONDITIONS WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN
THE CIPS CLIMATE ANALOGUES, WHICH LEANS TOWARD NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECPITATION BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. OF COURSE, AT THIS TIME SCALE, DETAILS ABOUT WHAT, WHERE,
AND WHEN FOR ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEM REMAINS OBSCURED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY PUSH SOUTH FROM CANADA, INTO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING
KXWA, KMOT AND KJMS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST (10 TO 25 KTS) TONIGHT THEN REMAIN
NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...TWH
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