529
FXUS63 KBIS 021332
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
832 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
TODAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S, WITH SOME NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS MOVING IN SHOULD LIMIT HOW COLD THESE LOWS GET, THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. SOME WEAK RETURNS ON THE
RADAR IN THE SOUTH ALSO INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. MAINTAINED LOW POPS AS A RESULT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. BEFORE DOING SO
SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
SOME ISOLATED AREAS BELOW FREEZING. CURRENT ISOLATED OBSERVATIONS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE TO LOW FOR
A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL SEE FROST TO
PATCHY FREEZE THIS MORNING. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL LIFT THE STALLED FRONT IN THE WEST AND
PRODUCE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN THE WEST AND THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE ELEVATED FRONT, WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES.
ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. SURFACE LOW THEN
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
TYPICAL WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW. AS A
RESULT MORE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW FOR SLIGHT POPS, ALTHOUGH DID KEEP IN SPRINKLE
MENTIONS. BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SWITCH TO
A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS FRONT, SOME LOWER RH COMBINED WITH THESE
BREEZY WINDS COULD BRING SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AS WELL ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL LESSEN
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND BRING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING THROUGH SUNDAY, LOOK FOR SEASONABLE HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR WEAK AND MAINLY DRY
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ARE LOW RIGHT NOW WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES. MAINLY CONCERN WILL BE SOME INCREASED WINDS TO
START THE WEEK COMBINED WITH LOWER RH VALUES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD RETURN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THESE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S.
LOWS LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LARGER TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE THEN STARTING TO SHOW UP FOR
LATER NEXT WEEK AS SOME CLUSTERS ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGING PATTERN WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTH WEST TROUGH. CLUSTERS
ARE STILL FAIRLY SPLIT ON THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN THUS THE
CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH TODAY. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ALONG
WITH SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH. MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS COULD THEN LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AND BREEZY AT TIMES. WINDS LESSON
TONIGHT, AND COULD SWITCH TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MALARKEY
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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