973
FXUS63 KBIS 041602
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MUCH OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST, NORTH, CENTRAL, AND EAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH A CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHEAST (COLDER) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMER).
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THIS COMING WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
DENSE FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THUS HAVE DROPPED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE, DENSE FOG HAS
PUSHED AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HI-RES MODELS
SHOWING THIS FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, AND EXTENDED ALL OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CT. AREAS WITHIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
COULD SEE POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST. THOUGHTS ARE THE
GREATER IMPACTS ARE THE LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
MAKE FOR SOME SLICK SURFACES. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TEXT. MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG, PERHAPS DENSE AT
TIMES, COULD ALSO BE FOUND WITHIN THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN MONTANA STARTING TO ORGANIZE FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THESE RADAR TRENDS,
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWARD A TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL. HOW FAR EAST THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THUS WILL HOLD ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANSIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR
NOW. MEANWHILE FOG, LOW CLOUDS, AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS
VALID AS VISIBILITY REPORTS OF A QUARTER MILE CONTINUE. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO REPORTED WITHIN OR NEAR FOG.
MOST AREAS REPORTING THIS ARE NOW IN A WINTER WEATHER OR DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. OVERALL ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS TODAY SHOULD BE
CAUTIONS OF LOW VISIBILITY FROM FOG OR SLICK SPOTS FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP ACROSS EASTERN MT, AS A MID LEVEL
EMBEDDED WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY, DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
OF ND BUT MAINTAINED FARTHER NORTH. TRIMMED OFF SOME COUNTIES
FROM THE FOG HEADLINES (GOLDEN VALLEY EAST THROUGH STARK) WITH
VISIBILITY IMPROVED THERE. FOG HEADLINES REMAIN VALID ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING, WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG REMAINS OVER THE REGION,
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG VIA SFC OBSERVATIONS AND ND DOT WEB CAMS
OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT TILL 18Z (NOON CST). STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND AFTER 14Z TODAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY.
FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, WITH A SFC WARM FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING, THEN ACROSS CENTRAL ND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FROPA, WITH
LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY SOUTHWEST. COLDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S CENTRAL AND 20S EAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO MOST AREAS. DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE STRATUS DECK
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REACHING
THE SURFACE, THOUGH WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE CAMS AND HREF PROBS FAVOR
LIGHT SFC ACCUMULATIONS, THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN CONSIDERING WAA ALOFT AND SFC TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE, ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS STILL FAVORED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
COMING WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. NBM IS MAINLY DRY,
THOUGH ANY DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ALOFT COULD GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE
FAVORING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING, FOLLOWED BY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BRIEFLY COOLER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WILL SEE THE STRATUS TRENDING SCT-FEW OVER SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 15Z, INCLUDING KDIK. THE TREND OF A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK THEN CONTINUES INTO
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TO VFR FOR KXWA AND
KBIS. KMOT AND ESPECIALLY KJMS REMAIN FAVORED TO REMAIN UNDER
THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 12Z PERIOD. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG/MIST WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW
STRATUS, WITH PRIMARILY IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS. AN AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING FOR KXWA AND KMOT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>021-031>033.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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