760
FXUS63 KBIS 031748
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER BUT WINDY TODAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
- PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY, THEN WARMING BACK UP TO THE 80S
AND 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
OVERALL LIMITED CHANGES NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN EASTERN ND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MODEST MUCAPE AND STRONGER SHEAR COLD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, THEN MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS THREAT STILL SEEMS ISOLATED, ALTHOUGH HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF MONTANA AND
PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIMITED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO REMAINS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LOWER RH VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON AUG 3
2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS, WITH A SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH MORE
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE, RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ND TODAY. RH VALUES MAY NOT BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS
FORECAST TODAY, ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT LOW
RH AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION COULD
STILL BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE RED FLAG WARNING AS IS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
AN OCCLUDED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW, WITH A SHORTWAVE AT ITS BASE
PREPARING TO EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS TO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THE INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDS VERTICALLY, WITH STRONG 850-700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION,
FRONTOGENESIS, AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MOST RECENT SUITE OF CAMS WAS FAR TOO SLOW IN DEVELOPING THIS
ACTIVITY, BUT THEY DO CONSOLIDATE ON A BROADER AREA OF MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 TO 9 AM CDT. THE CONVECTION
IS PRESENTLY AND FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED, WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM AS HIGH AS 55 KTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AS LOW AS 30 KTS IN THE SOUTHEAST. SO
FAR, IT APPEARS THAT UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO REALIZE THE
FULL EXTENT OF THIS SHEAR AND 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE, BUT RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAY CHANGE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT 00-06Z INITIALIZED CAMS HAVE
ALMOST COMPLETELY SHIFTED ANY SEVERE THREAT EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE HREF AND RAP DO MAINTAIN 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH, WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THERE INCREASING CLOSER TO 50 KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THIS PART OF THE STATE
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED, WHICH KEEPS OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
THREAT CEILING LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST BUT STILL REACHING THE 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HUMIDITY FALLING AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA KEEPS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SEE THE FIRE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING RESIDES OVERHEAD. FORECAST HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY, AND BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD,
ALLOWING THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK CLOSER TO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BRINGS A PROJECTED WARMING TREND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NBM ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE
90S RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE MEDIAN 50TH PERCENTILE SPREADS DO INCREASE TO
10-15 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, BUT THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
DISTRIBUTION SHOWS A CLEAR WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST ONE CLUSTER EACH DAY THAT MAINTAINS NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER TODAY, CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT, COMBINED WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, COULD BRING LOW VFR TO
PERIODS OF MVFR TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND
BEHIND THIS FRONT TODAY. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER
WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FOG AT
THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN BE FOUND FOR TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, EXCEPT
MCKENZIE COUNTY, UNTIL 8 PM MDT. RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WINDIER, BUT WITH HIGHER MINIMUM RH. STILL
EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DIRECTION TURNING FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
IS STILL FORECAST TO FALL AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT IN FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA, BUT COULD HOLD CLOSER TO 30-35 PERCENT IN
SURROUNDING AREAS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...HOLLAN
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