307
FXUS63 KBIS 282148
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
348 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT, BUT STILL COLD WITH LOWS 5 BELOW ZERO TO
15 BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.
- WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY. THEN A LARGE
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IF FORECAST
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
MAINLY NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
CURRENTLY, LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ND AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THIS SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE, WHICH
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT. IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL
AROUND 30 MPH WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT HETTINGER, BOWMAN
AND IN SIOUX COUNTY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS FORECAST TO EXPIRE AT
5 PM AND THINK IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE LET GO, BUT WILL LET THE
EVENING SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. IF IT WERE EXTENDED, WOULD THINK IT WOULD ONLY BE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ND. HOWEVER, IN THE NORTHWEST WE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY. CURRENT WIND CHILLS
ARE 25 TO 30 BELOW, AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WE ALSO ADDED A GROUP OF COUNTIES IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT WE
WON'T START THE ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE COUNTIES WILL ALSO RUN THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.
WE BEGIN A QUICK WARMUP ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST ND, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. IT WILL NOT BE WINDY ON MONDAY SO IT
WILL FEEL A LOT CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE THAN IT DID
TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND WE SEE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THEN ON TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD, SETTING UP A
PRETTY TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. EXACTLY WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENDS
UP AND WHERE THE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TRACKS
WILL DETERMINE WHERE WE MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BASED ON
THE FG AND QG FORCING WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES, THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW BANDS THAT SET UP, BUT THIS ALSO LOOKS TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, SO WOULDN'T EXPECT ANY ONE AREA WOULD SEE
LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITH IDEAL FORCING. AT THIS TIME NBM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MEDIUM PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR 2 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.
WITH THE UNDULATING BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND A PROGRESSIVE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL FLOW, THIS IS A LOW PREDICTABLE EVENT AT THIS TIME.
WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE (OR NOT) AS WE GET CLOSER TO MID
WEEK.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY GOING FORWARD IS THE CONTINUED LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FLUCTUATING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES IS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH BISMARCK SHOWING BASICALLY A 15-20 DEGREE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MAX TEMPERATURE
FROM WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31ST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, JANUARY
7TH. MIN TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE, BUT I
DON'T RECALL A LONGER STRETCH OF LOW PREDICTABLE TEMPERATURES
SINCE THE INCEPTION OF THE ENSEMBLE NBM VIEWER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND. EXPECT THE LOWER VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS, BUT WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON (WEST) INTO THIS EVENING (CENTRAL) AS
WINDS SUBSIDE. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE THE LOWER VSBYS
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. ONCE
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AT TAF SITES, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ001-002-009-
010.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-022-023-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST /4 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ040>046.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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