302
FXUS63 KBIS 102335
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OF HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S. THURSDAY COULD BE WINDY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS NORTHERLY AND BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH LARGE DEWPOINT SPREADS, AT
LEAST INITIALLY, WILL MAKE SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED. OVERALL THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE NEEDED UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AS OF THIS WRITING, A SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF STRUNG
OUT SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WHICH WILL
SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF THE
HIT OR MISS VARIETY TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH CHANCES ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THAT BEING SAID, THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD AND THIS IS THE AREA THAT
THE NBM IS FAVORING FOR THE HIGHEST TOTALS. NBM 48-HOUR
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A
HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR GREATER
MAXED OUT IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR THUS FAR, BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S FAR SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL, TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. A
FEW READINGS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THAT BEING SAID, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING TOO LOW. GIVEN
THESE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL WORK TO KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. MORE READINGS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AREA POSSIBLE
AGAIN NORTH, BUT CLOUDS MAY KEEP THE NEED FOR FREEZE HEADLINES
AT BAY.
EARLY TO MIDWEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS AND MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN MID TO LATE WEEK GIVEN THE
LOW PREDICTABILITY PATTERN. ONE SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUTOFF
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND ONE SOLUTION HAS THE LOW
BEING INGESTED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. IF THE LATTER
SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY, WE WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAMS PHASE OVER
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW REMAINS CUTOFF, SPLIT FLOW WILL
DOMINATE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW, CLUSTER ANALYSIS WOULD
SUGGEST A ~30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW (DRIER
SOLUTION) AND MAYBE A ~70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE PHASED
SOLUTION (WETTER). EVEN IF THE WETTER SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY,
IT APPEARS THAT IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOPEFULLY
MODELS START TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S (POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 60S).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH PROB30 GROUPS INTRODUCED TO MOST
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SITES. SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SUNDAY, WITH CEILINGS FORECAST AT MVFR TO IFR HEIGHTS. A BREEZY
NORTH NORTHEAST WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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