145
FXUS63 KBIS 170618
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
118 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER MOST LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR LATE
NIGHT UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
EXITING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH HAVE
DEVELOPED. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS WE
REMAIN FAIRLY WELL MIXED AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS SLOW TO
RELAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST FROM THE
MID 40S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CHILLY OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT.
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND WILL PROMOTE MILD AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE WARM FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE DRY THAN FRIDAY, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE LOWER WINDS ON SATURDAY, SUB
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED,
THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN FLATTENING
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PASSES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WHILE HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING IS AROUND 20 TO
40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING.
WITH ZONAL FLOW THEN FAVORED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK, MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, A PACIFIC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
BEFORE CUTTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOME VARIATION IN TIMING AND RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS FOUND WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE, BUT OVERALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE STARTING
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA,
AFFECTING THE KMOT, KBIS, AND KJMS TERMINALS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...JJS
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