695
FXUS63 KBIS 250535
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. WE WILL SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO
CALM DOWN AS AFTERNOON MIXING DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE, POST FRONTAL, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE EASTERN MONTANA. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA STAYING FAR NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT COULD MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING DOWN A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS LEFT A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
EXPECTED. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MODEST PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND MODERATE CAA ACROSS THE
WEST, WEST NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RHS AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AND
THUS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MOST COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MCKENZIE COUNTY. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BROADLY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT, FROM THE MID 20S WEST AND NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PATCHY FOG MIGHT ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS, THOUGH IT MAY
BE LOCALIZED TO LOW LYING AREAS. WE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS OF
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AS A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE,
BROADLY FORECAST IN THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ARE SIMILARLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND OR
BELOW FREEZING. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SKIRTING ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL INDUCE A WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
WILL THE RIDGE MOVING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AND INTO A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY WILL THEN PEAK INTO THE 60S AND 70S
ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL PROMOTE
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
UNDER THE AUSPICE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM IN THE 60S AND
70S, A UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
PROGGED TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. CHANCES (20 TO 40) FOR LIGHT RAIN MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTH. BEHIND THIS FRONT, THE ENSEMBLE IS BEGINNING TO RESOLVE
ON A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN, A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ZH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page