084
FXUS63 KBIS 160931
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE SOUTH OF
I94.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2, WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
- PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY MORNING, LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR ALL AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN A RAPID
SWITCH TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
LIGHT RADAR ECHOES HAVE ENTERED WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TO THIS
POINT, THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED GROUND TRUTH OF PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY RECENT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW IN GLASGOW AND LIGHT RAIN IN MILES CITY,
WITH OUR PARTNER OFFICE IN GLASGOW REPORTING THEY RECEIVED A
DUSTING FROM A SNOW SHOWER. THEREFORE, ADDED LOW POPS TO PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. THE ONE OTHER NOTE FOR
THIS MORNING IS FOG. CURRENTLY, IT HAS EXPANDED A BIT THOUGH
REMAINS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. INCOMING LOW
TO MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HELP FOG DISSIPATE, THOUGH FOR NOW,
LEFT FOG MENTIONS OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL ND, INCLUDING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BUT MAY TRIM BACK AREAL COVERAGE BEFORE THE
AVIATION UPDATE IN A COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, EXPECT ANOTHER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ND TO THE MID
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE HIGHS HAVE GENERALLY OVERPERFORMED
IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, INCOMING CLOUD COVER COULD HELP AT LEAST
DELAY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO WHERE THEY WIND UP AS EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.
TUESDAY HIGHS REMAIN A BIT OF A MYSTERY SO WILL COVER THAT IN
THE NEXT FEW PARAGRAPHS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM, BUT
AFTERWARDS, TEMPERATURES FALL OFF A CLIFF TO FINISH OUT THE
WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO LOW 20S.
IN REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM, THERE REMAINS A LARGE
DISPARITY IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. THE NBM
MAINTAINS HIGHS IN THE 30S NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. THIS PRODUCES A FORECAST THAT
IS MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PROVIDES
A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES THAT PUT BOTH HIGHS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES IN DOUBT.
THE EC, FOR EXAMPLE, PRODUCES HIGHS SIMILAR TO THE NBM, WHILE
THE HRRR IS EVEN WARMER. HOWEVER, THE NAM IS CLEARLY MUCH
COLDER WITHS HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND FREEZING, EXCEPT IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE THINGS REMAIN WARMER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THAT THE NBM IS OVERDONE AND BIASED TOWARDS RECENT TEMPERATURES
THAT HAVE FREQUENTLY OVERPERFORMED, ESPECIALLY BEING CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ALL DAY. THAT SAID, THERE IS ALSO NO
STRONG EVIDENCE TO GO AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING THE MOST ACCURATE WILL
HIGHLY IMPACT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
SHOULD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS PLAY OUT, THEN RAIN WILL PERSIST
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT TUESDAY. SINCE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO HAVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION IN
GENERAL, THIS WOULD RESULT IN SNOW UNDERPERFORMING OVERALL.
HOWEVER, IF A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE NAM PLAYS OUT, THEN NOT
ONLY IS FREEZING RAIN INTRODUCED INTO THE EQUATION THURSDAY (WHICH
IS SUPPORTED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE LATEST HREF RUN), BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SOONER. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A HIGHER OVERALL SNOW FORECAST AND ONE THAT MAY CAUSE IMPACTS
FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS. STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AFTER WHICH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY. THE
STRONGEST CAA IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND AND NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER. DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS AND IF IT COINCIDES WITH A
STRONGER PRESSURE BUBBLE, WINDS MAY OVERPERFORM THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. BOTTOM LINE TO WINDS IS THAT THEIR IMPACT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WHERE AND WHEN. AS OF RIGHT
NOW, THE STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH AREAS WHERE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW WITH A POTENTIAL SWEET SPOT WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW COULD OCCUR.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCES LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I94, 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH OF I94 AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2, AND 5 TO 8 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THAT
SAID, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THESE TOTALS CAN VARY QUITE A BIT
DEPENDING ON HOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE PLAYS OUT WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS-IS FOR
NOW, WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS MAY REMAIN
BREEZY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL THURSDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE EVENT SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS IN THAT
AREA. OTHER THAN THAT, EXPECT NO MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THAT
PARTICULAR WAVE. BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
DURING THE WEEKEND, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER WARMING
TREND ARE THEN FAVORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ALONG WITH LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE
WINDS (BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS THAT FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SLOPE OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND ADDITIONAL FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AS OF NOW, MOST TERMINALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED. HOWEVER, A FEW HI-RES MODELS PING THE PERIPHERY OF THE
FOG REACHING KJMS, THEREFORE ADDED VCFG FOR A FEW HOURS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY THAT
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, A DRY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT ANY AVIATION IMPACTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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