260  
FXUS63 KBIS 201140  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTED HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO 2  
INCHES IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, TORNADO  
OR TWO, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING  
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  
 
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER  
80S THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S TO  
LOWER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025  
 
WAKE LOW HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS  
MORNING. A SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS  
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD  
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT THIS  
MORNING, IT IS STILL LACKING FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT.  
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE  
WITH STORMS THIS MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR POP UPDATES  
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO LIMITED PATCHY  
FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WEST. ANY BRIEF CLEARING THROUGH MID  
MORNING COULD STILL BRING SOME PATCHY FOG, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE  
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025  
 
A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING  
SURFACE LOW AND AN UNSETTLED TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT WILL BRING  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY  
AND INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH. OF NOTE ARE STRONG NON  
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAKE LOW IN THE SHOWER  
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS  
FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH MAY BRIEFLY BE  
FOUND. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO INFORM OF THIS HAZARD AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN  
THE SOUTHWEST MAY ALSO DEVELOP PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA MAY LIMIT THIS FOG  
POTENTIAL. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD  
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, CAPE VALUES INCREASE  
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS HIGH. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH SPC CONTINUING THE MARGINAL  
AND SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VECTORS TODAY MAY MORE  
PROMOTE MULTICLUSTER CELLS, WITH PERHAPS SOME DISCRETE CELLS  
POSSIBLE. GIVEN HIGH SHEAR AND CAPE WENT WITH 2 INCH HAIL AS  
THE MAIN THREAT. LIMITED DCAPE WILL KEEP THE WIND THREAT TO  
AROUND 60 MPH. HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASED LOW  
LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INDICATE PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO  
IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS WOULD REQUIRE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE  
DISCRETE, WHICH IS AN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY TODAY. GIVEN THIS  
POSSIBILITY HAVE INCLUDED IN STORM MESSAGING FOR TODAY. HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES 1.5 TO 2.0  
INCHES. WPC HAS A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY, WITH  
SOME BREEZY WINDS IN THE EAST. TONIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUE CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DIMINISH, PATCHY FOG IS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AND  
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AS THE  
MENTIONED BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.  
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS HIGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SHEAR REMAINS HIGH.  
SHEAR VECTORS ARE MORE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, LIMITING THE CHANCES  
FOR DISCRETE CELLS. THAT BEING SAID, DEPENDING WHERE THE SURFACE  
LOW SETS UP THERE COULD BE A TORNADO RISK IN ADDITION TO LARGE  
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS AGAIN DEPENDENT ON ANY  
DISCRETE STORMS FORMING, AND INCREASED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY  
FROM THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO KEEP HEAVY RAINFALL  
AS A CONCERN FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IF ANY TRAINING STORMS CAN  
DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY, WITH  
WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH.  
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, WITH HEAVY  
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID  
50S TO MID 60S.  
 
UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY WITH A BROAD  
SURFACE LOW IN THE AREA. INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO  
LOOK TO REMAIN. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NOW  
ON TUESDAY, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL  
THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 70S ACROSS  
NORTH ON TUESDAY, WITH 80S LINGERING IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE  
POSSIBLE, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. BROAD TROUGH  
PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME,  
BRINGING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND  
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES, PERHAPS IN  
THE 90S, YET CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CSU-MLP HAS LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY. IT THEN SHOWS THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE  
THIS MORNING, WITH PERHAPS MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD BRING  
SOME LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THESE STORMS  
COULD ALSO BRING SOME MVFR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES COULD RETURN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, PERHAPS  
BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. HAVE ADDED IN SOME PROB30  
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS  
SOME FOG MAY RETURN TONIGHT, IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN  
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION,  
ALTHOUGH HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOWER CLOUDS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND COULD BE BREEZY  
AT TIMES ACROSS THE EAST.  
 
 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...ANGLIN  
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN  
AVIATION...ANGLIN  
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