896
FXUS63 KBIS 090251
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS LIKELY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT, WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY ALONG, SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, A NOTABLE BUT BRIEF WARM UP
FOR THURSDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THE
TIME OF THIS MID TO LATE EVENING UPDATE. PRECPITATION SO FAR HAS
BEEN FAIRLY SPORADIC WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME MORE CONSISTENT AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT IN ACCORDANCE TO THE LATEST MODEL
AND UPSTREAM TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST MONTANA AT THE TIME OF THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A MODERATELY
STRONG MID LEVEL JET DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE OVERALL INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. WITH THIS UPDATE, HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE BEGUN
TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE INCITING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
AS THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEGINS TO RELAX. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT THE BRIEF
PERIOD AND LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE DOES NOT NECESSITATE AN
EXTENSION TO CURRENT WIND HEADINGS. AS SUCH, WE PLAN TO ALLOW
THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 7 PM CDT / 6 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGEST WINDS NORTH AND CENTRAL. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AFTER AROUND 4 PM.
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER GUSTS 4 PM.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING, THEN TRACK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER
WAVE THAT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT WILL DEFINITELY BE
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MOST SEEING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, MAINLY WESTERLY 15 TO 25
MPH WITH SOME GUST TO 30-35 MPH SOUTH CENTRAL.
ANOTHER CANADIAN CYCLONE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WE ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE A BRIEF BUT NOTICEABLE WARM-UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, WITH UPPER 80S FORECAST IN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND. IT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ON FRIDAY, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURE WISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST, WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, TO THE MID 80S
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHICH MAY NOT SEE THE FRONT
MOVE THROUGH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN MOSTLY
IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME UPPER 50 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
MAY DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH LOW VFR TO HIGH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WHERE PRECPITATION DOES FALL. HAVE
INCLUDES PREVAILING SHOWERS AT BOTH KXWA AND KMOT, AS WELL AS
PROB30 LIGHT TSRA AT KXWA WITH THIS UPDATE. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DO DEVELOP, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE ANTICIPATED.
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 LIGHT SHRA AT KBIS AND KJMS WITH THIS UPDATE.
GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE
MID TO LATE EVENING, BEFORE AGAIN STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING
GUSTY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER A PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH POSSIBLY
SOME UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
THEREFORE, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE NORTH,
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL ND. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND DURING
THIS TIME. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WHILE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, EXCEPT MID 40S
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...ADAM
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page