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FXUS63 KBIS 301200
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
600 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MINOT TO JAMESTOWN THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
- WARMER TODAY, THEN A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHEAST (COLDER) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMER) MID TO LATE WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
AREAS OF WEAK AND POCKETS OF MODERATE REFLECTIVITY LINGER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THESE RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
TWO HOURS CONDITIONS ABOVE THE 850MB LAYER HAVE DRIED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT BEING SAID, ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS
MOVING IN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AT THIS TIME. EVIDENCE FOR
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND IS MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THIS
AREA, AND MUCH OF THIS HAS FALLEN AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW DUE TO THE EROSION OF THE 950 TO 850 MB WARM NOSE
ALOFT. QPF REPORTS FROM AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS HAVE BROADLY
BEEN FROM A TRACE TO 0.01" ALONG A LINE FROM MINOT DOWN THROUGH
JAMESTOWN. IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 0.05" WERE OBSERVED. HERE, ANALYSIS REVEALS A SHORT LIVED
BAND OF ENHANCED PRECPITATION DEVELOPED WHERE MODERATE FG
FORCING AND Q-G CONVERGENCE OVERLAPPED. ALL REMAINING
PRECPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY THE MID MORNING. WITH THIS UPDATE, HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EROSION OF
ITS WESTERN FLANK, AND HAVE BLENDED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND
MODEL TRENDS INTO THE SKY COVER. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, AND IS EXPECTED
TO CUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON ITS WAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A WARM FRONT AND TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. WITH THE ONGOING WAA,
SCATTERED PRECPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW 950 TO 850 MB NOSE IS
EVIDENT ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE WAA
CONTINUES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING, MAINLY BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW AT THE 850MB LAYER, AND THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM, THE PERIOD DURING WHICH PRECPITATION FALLS IS
FAIRLY BRIEF, AND THUS OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS AN AXIS OF LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR A GLAZE OF ICE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO
FARGO THROUGH THE MID MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH
REMAINS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA, AS THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
PRECPITATION IS HIGHEST HERE. WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT NATURE OF THESE ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE,
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA, UP TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT LIMITED BANDED PRECPITATION
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS, PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY,
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED UP TO 25 MPH AND GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT AND
THUS MODERATE CAA DIGS IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A 40KT 850MB JET WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH THE TIMING IS SUCH THAT FULLY MIXING THESE
WINDS DOWN SEEMS UNLIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST AROUND FREEZING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA, UP TO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, A FAIRLY STARK NW-SW ORIENTATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC,
PROMOTING MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR
PRECPITATION EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH
OF THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL AS ACCUMULATING SNOW, BRIEF
PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NO
ICE ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN IN LINE WITH THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES,
WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOUND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA DOWN TO FARGO. BROADLY SPEAKING, LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, AND AN INCH OR TWO NORTH
CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO THINGS TO KEEP
IN MIND WITH THESE AMOUNTS ARE 1) THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A
SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERN PLACEMENT, CAN STILL CHANCE AND 2) THERE
HAS BEEN A PERVASIVE BANDED SNOW SIGNAL FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AS
MODERATE TO HIGH FG FORCING AND DECENT LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
WHERE EVER THESE BANDS SET UP, AND THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE AND HREF MEMBERS AS
TO WHERE THIS WOULD BE. THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS (APPROXIMATELY
67%) FAVOR THIS TO BE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS OF HIGHEST
SNOWFALL FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS DOWN THROUGH FARGO, THOUGH A
MINORITY CLUSTER (APPROXIMATELY 33%) ALSO EXISTS AND INSTEAD
FAVORS THIS BANDED SNOW SETTING UP FROM A LINE FROM MINOT DOWN
THROUGH JAMESTOWN.
LOOKING AHEAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK,
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A
HUDSON BAY LOW RETROGRADES INTO PLACE. A STRONG TEMPERATURES
GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT, WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ARE
UP TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LOWS FROM 10 BELOW NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 20S ABOVE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LONGER TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCORDANT DURING THIS PERIOD AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLIPPER. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (APPROXIMATELY
75%) CONTINUE TO FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TWO LOWS MERGE AND
DEEPENS OVER THE BAY. NOTABLY, A MINORITY CLUSTER (APPROXIMATELY
25% MEMBERSHIP) INSTEAD FAVORS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AS THESE LOWS ORBIT AND DISPLACE EACH OTHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
PRECPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH THE ODD SHORTWAVE TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CYCLONIC FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECPITATION BASICALLY ANY DAY. BY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE BECOMES EVEN MORE
DISCORDANT AS THE THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW COULD
ALLOW FOR THE BREAKDOWN OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. WHEN AND
HOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW EVOLVES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, THOUGH A PATTERN SHIFT SOME TIME DURING THIS PERIOD
SEEMS LIKE A DECENT BET.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED POCKETS OF A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE FOUND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTIONS OF
SUCH AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE AT THIS TIME. ALL PRECPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THIS STRATUS DECK, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. AROUND A TRACE TO 1
INCH OF SNOW IS BROADLY EXPECTED, THOUGH THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE BANDED SNOW DOES
DEVELOP. WITH THIS UPDATE, HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR LIGHT SN
AT KMOT AND KJMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTIONS OF SUCH AT ANY OTHER TERMINAL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS, WITH THE STRONGEST FOUND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. WITH THIS JET, WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KXWA,
KMOT, KBIS, AND KJMS THROUGH THE MID MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TURNING
WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, THEN
NORTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRON PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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