675
FXUS63 KBIS 221936
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
236 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE INTO
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SPINNING OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS
SYSTEM, SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, IN
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ND. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS
SITUATED OVER NORTHWEST ND, HOWEVER BULK SHEAR HERE IS MINIMAL,
BUT DOES INCREASE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE BORDER. THERE IS AN
INVERTED TROUGH POKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND LOW LCL
HEIGHTS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED A MARGINAL STRONG GUST OR HAIL STONE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT, ALONG WITH A NON-SUPERCELL LANDSPOUT TORNADO.
INSTABILITY HERE IS GREATEST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, THEN
DIMINISHES THEREAFTER. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA
MAY SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. ML CAPE HERE
IS ALSO FORECAST TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR HERE IS
CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50KTS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
WEST AND SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST ND, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS IN
BOTH AREAS WILL BE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN THE PAST FEW DAYS DOES EXIT TO THE EAST AND A VORT
LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITION OF THE IMPULSE WOULD
SUGGEST THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CENTRAL
WOULD FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
PRECIPITATION MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. IN THE NORTH, THE PWAT'S ARE SUCH THAT IF WE DO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS, THEY COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
RATES. WPC HAS A MARGINAL FF RISK MENTION IN THIS AREA AND THE
ECMWF SA PAGE NOTES THIS AREA AS WELL FOR HIGH QPF. SOME
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS LIMITING THE
WARM CLOUD PROCESSES YOU'D LIKE TO SEE. ALSO MBE MOVEMENT IS
SLOW AT TIMES BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY SLOW. HOWEVER THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT. TALL
SKINNY CAPE IS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT NOT SEVERE
WEATHER. THEREFORE, HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT
LATER TONIGHT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, RATHER THAN WIND OR HAIL.
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA, THUS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME
THE RISK FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IS LOW.
CURRENTLY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE DRIEST DAYS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY HIT AND MISS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE WEEK, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. EVENTUALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN PACIFIC
UPPER LOW MAY END UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. BUT BEFORE THAT OCCURS WE SHOULD
HAVE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NBM IS
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A TIMEFRAME OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. NBM TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH MINOT SHOWING A
66 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION. IT'S
STILL A LONG WAY OUT SO WE'LL SEE HOW THIS UPPER LOW EVOLVES
OVER THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. NORMAL FOR
MID TO LATE JUNE ARE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND
MID 50S FOR MORNING LOWS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS, WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
BEHIND THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT LOOK FOR AREAS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
SOME IFR CEILINGS IN LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FOG.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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