627
FXUS63 KBIS 101942
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A COOLING
TREND THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH, WHILE A PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS. OVERALL ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED, AT LEAST BRIEFLY. SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT
AS A DECENT JET REMAINS ALOFT. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
LIFT MECHANISM FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE
MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ND THROUGH TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ISOLATED CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING SOME FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN ON
TUESDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
MORE INTO WESTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE HIGH AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO LOOK TO BE FOUND. INSTABILITY MAY
EVEN BE UNCAPPED BY MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. CAMS CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING STORMS FIRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS A RESULT
AND MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. DEPENDING HOW THE SHEAR VECTOR
SETS UP, MULTI CLUSTER TO SUPERCELL STORM MODE IS POSSIBLE. IF
SUPERCELL STORM MODE MATERIALIZES THEN PERHAPS SOME LARGER HAIL
IS POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT BOTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOKS LOW AS LCLS ARE HIGH AND HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT QUITE
CURVED ENOUGH. OVERALL SPC HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY BEING IF THE SURFACE TROUGH
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. OTHERWISE
LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA ALONG WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. CSU-MLP
SHOWING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY, AS SHEAR REMAINS HIGH YET EXPECT LOWER INSTABILITY.
AFTER WEDNESDAY CSU-MLP NOT SHOWING MUCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES THIS WEEK. TODAY'S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE ROBUST
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COULD ALSO
BRING INCREASED PWAT VALUES AND PERHAPS QPF. NBM EVEN SHOWING A
30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF LIQUID IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND SOME OF CENTRAL ND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A SURFACE HIGH THIS COULD FURTHER
LOWER THESE CHANCES. TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY YET
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
REST OF TODAY WILL SEE A MIX OF VFR TO PERHAPS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COLD ALSO
REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH
OR BECOME VERY ISOLATED. SOME LOW CLOUDS TO PERHAPS PATCHY FOG
MAY RETURN TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
A RESULT, WITH CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE KDIK TAF AT THIS TIME. OVERALL LOOK FOR A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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