526
FXUS63 KBIS 010320
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
920 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL
IMPACTS THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
RETURN MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE,
BUT THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. RADAR SHOWS MUCH OF THE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD, BUT RECENT WEBCAM IMAGERY NEAR MEDINA DOES
STILL SHOW PRECIPITATION (LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE?) FALLING
WHERE THERE ARE NO RADAR RETURNS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN COUNTIES JUST OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED
ADVISORY, BUT NOT EXPECTING WORSE IMPACTS BEYOND WHAT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED.
A COUPLE OF FORECAST TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS EVENING
IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT HAD BEEN FORECAST, AND WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS LEADS TO BLOWING SNOW BEING A
MUCH LESSER CONCERN THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OUR LATEST FORECAST
UPDATE THAT REFLECTS THE OBSERVED TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS
PRODUCES VERY LITTLE BLOWING SNOW, WHICH WOULD MOSTLY BE JUST
DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS IN OPEN AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM CST
FOR BOTTINEAU THROUGH EMMONS COUNTIES AND ALL OTHER COUNTIES TO
THE EAST. THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
TIME.
PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME LIGHTER OVERALL AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83, BUT IS STILL OF THE MIXED VARIETY. THE ANALYZED 32 F
SURFACE ISOTHERM HAS BECOME MUCH LESS STRAIGHT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS, NOT YET HAVING REACHED BOTTINEAU, HARVEY, OR
BISMARCK, BUT HAVING SURGED WELL EAST OF RUGBY. OVER TIME, WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE PRODUCTION ALOFT
WITH A DEEP ENOUGH OF A LOWER SATURATED LAYER TO ALLOW FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. BUT THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON HOW COLD THE
TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE AND HOW MUCH UPWARD MOTION
THERE WILL BE WITHIN THE SATURATED LAYER. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT
CLOUD HEIGHTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT WE WOULD
TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED WITH IMPACTFUL FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT THAT
DOES NOT PRECLUDE IT FROM HAPPENING.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST WAS REFINED FOR THIS UPDATE.
THROUGH THIS EVENING THERE WAS GENERAL SHIFT TO LESS SNOW AND
MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
RECENTLY. THEN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WE ARE CARRYING
LOW CHANCES FOR A BROAD MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE (OR
JUST DRIZZLE WHERE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM BURKE THROUGH
ADAMS COUNTIES, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS RAPIDLY BECOME MORE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SINCE 3 PM CST. AREA WEBCAMS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THIS IS FALLING AS
FREEZING RAIN, WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN AND RAIN ON THE BACK END
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ABOVE FREEZING. A LIGHT COATING
OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 5 PM CST IN OLIVER, EASTERN
MORTON, EASTERN SIOUX, BURLEIGH, AND EMMONS COUNTIES. BUT ANY
ICE SHOULD MELT SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE ABOVE FREEZING AIR
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED IN SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND CUTTING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, DEMARKED BY A WIND SHIFT AND
NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE LOW WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
CAUSED BY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS AFTERNOON, P-TYPE HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS FALLING PRECIPITATION HAS OUTPACED THE
SURGING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE THOUGHT HAS
BEEN THAT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD, WE
COULD START TO SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX LIKE WE DID EARLIER
TODAY.
WE DID OPT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO OUR
REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 00 UTC. WE DID ALSO
CANCEL EARLY OUR FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED, AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO LET ANOTHER
ROW OF COUNTIES GO AHEAD OF THE FULL EXPIRATION TIME. CONDITIONS
IN GENERAL IMPROVED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA QUITE FAST, AS
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY WARMED UP ABOVE FREEZING EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY
ABOVE THE 40 DEGREES F THRESHOLD, WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW, WHILE BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO BE NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERALL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES EAST AND THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS,
OR EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MAIN OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS LARGER FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF DRIZZLE / FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MODERATELY ADAMANT ON A LOSS OF
ICE ALOFT ON TOP OF A SATURATED LAYER EXTENDING TO AROUND 1 KM,
AND OVERLAID WITH ENOUGH OMEGA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BIT TRICKY TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
REGARDLESS WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM, BUT WANTED TO AT LEAST GET
MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
CLOUDY BUT QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
UNDERNEATH A SHALLOW RIDGE, HELPING TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS WILL STAY A BIT BREEZY CENTRAL AND
EAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH SNOW ENDS UP FALLING THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES,
CROSSING OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST, WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL. THE LIKELIHOOD OF EXCEEDING TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS LOW,
AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MINOR P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE
DAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
AGREES ON BROAD RIDGING DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO END THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS
TOWARDS THE COLD END OF GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK,
LIKELY CAUSED BY BIAS CORRECTION FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP.
AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM, THE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WEEK IS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 916 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE
MVFR TO IFR UNDER SNOW, AND VFR TO MVFR UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THERE COULD BE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
AT AROUND 15-20 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
037-048-051.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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