366
FXUS63 KBIS 080004
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
704 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND. WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL ELSEWHERE.
- SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED NEXT WEEK.
- ONLY OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED/SUBTLE WAVES COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE WEST FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE. WILL MONITOR AND REVISIT AS NEEDED.
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A PSEUDO WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH IT COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE WEST, THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING AND GENERALLY IN THE 30S WILL
ALSO BE FOUND FOR TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD SEE
SOME LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE STATE, ALONG WITH A STEADY
NORTHWEST WIND. THIS SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA. THE MENTIONED FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE STATE ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED
NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AREA ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASED 850 MB JET TO INTERSECT WITH SOMEWHAT STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, WHICH COULD ALSO INCREASED THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR CONCERN IS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD BRING SLIGHTLY
INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES. THUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER MESSAGING OUTSIDE OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY.
SPC NOW HAS MOST OF THE STATE IN A GENERAL RISK FOR STORMS AS
A RESULT. IF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM OR CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP THEN PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S,
AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.
THIS WEEKEND, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE ALSO FORECAST. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THIS COULD LEAD TO A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY, ALTHOUGH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY
IMPROVE RH VALUES ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE CONCERNS IN THE MORE WINDY
AREAS IN THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE GROWING SEASONS FIRST
FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS WITH LOWS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S. SURFACE HIGH WITH RIDGING ALOFT THEN LINGERS FOR
SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER MORE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED AS A RESULT. LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WINDS UNDER THIS HIGH WILL BE LIGHT. A
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD THEN BRING A WARM AND WINDY START TO
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING HOW THE LOW TRACKS THIS COULD ALSO BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED, THUS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A STRONG GUST OF WIND IF ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED STORMS CAN DEVELOP. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASED WINDS MAY LEAD TO MORE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS LOW MAY HELP SOMEWHAT, ALTHOUGH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW COULD BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND
SHIFTING TO A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND WITH RH VALUES IN THE
20S. SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN FORECAST.
WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS RETURNING FOR FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN/NH
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