387  
FXUS63 KBIS 180553  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1253 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, REMAIN IN THE  
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF  
THE STATE. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY  
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.  
 
- SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN  
MAY BRING SOME MINOR FLOODING AT TIMES.  
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
THE NEXT PUSH OF SHOWERS HAS BEGUN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS  
OF THE STATE, BUT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.  
THESE WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY  
OVERNIGHT. LIGHTNING HASN'T BEEN OBSERVED IN A WHILE, THOUGH AN  
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE THIS  
EVENING, WITH THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY DIMINISHING. THE NEXT  
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH  
INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA  
THROUGH THURSDAY. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR  
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. FLOOD ADVISORIES IN THE NORTH HAVE BEEN  
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN THAT AREA.  
THE NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER REMAINS HIGH IN NORTH  
CENTRAL AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AFTER  
SUNSET WILL INHIBIT THIS POTENTIAL. THUS THE SPS FOR FUNNEL  
CLOUDS HAS BEEN ALSO ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
RAIN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH, WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING  
FOUND IN THE NORTH AND WEST. MADE SOME MINOR POP UPDATES TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE NEXT  
ROUND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. BEFORE  
THUNDERSTORMS END, THERE COULD BE SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS OR PERHAPS  
BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES AS THE NON SUPERCELL PARAMETER IS  
ELEVATED. HAVE PUT AN SPS TO COUNTIES WITH THIS POTENTIAL EARLY  
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, CONVECTIVE RAIN WITH THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HAVE PUT OUT A  
FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL  
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND.  
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDER HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED HERE, AN ISOLATED  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OVER WESTERN AND  
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND, WE ARE SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AS MENTIONED EARLIER TODAY, THERE IS  
LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR HERE, BUT INSTABILITY IS IN THE 500-1000  
J/KG RANGE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WK SURFACE  
VORTICITY. THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER CONTINUES TO  
TICK UP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A LANDSPOUT THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX  
HEATING. THINK THIS THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE AS HEATING WANES  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG  
TO WESTERN ND, NEAR THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUD SHIELD, OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.  
 
A COUPLE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS (EASTERN MT AND CENTRAL  
SD) ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THEY LINGER  
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CONVERGING OVER  
SOUTHERN ND/NORTHERN SD LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT  
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT,  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION  
MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER, WEAKER UPPER LEVEL  
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THAT MAY KEEP  
AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
FORECAST (ALTHOUGH CURRENT NBM POPS ARE PRETTY MUCH NON-  
EXISTENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT). THEN ANOTHER  
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
TIMING/PLACEMENT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND  
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME GENERAL  
AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD  
INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN  
THE LATEST 6-10 DAY CPC OUTLOOK WHICH IS ALSO FAVORING A WARM  
AND DRY PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THAT  
TIMEFRAME (SEPT 23-27).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR  
LEVELS. AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH  
CONFIDENCE OF LIGHTNING AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY TIME IS VERY LOW.  
OR IN OTHER WORDS, EVERY TERMINAL IS FAR LESS LIKELY THAN  
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN  
NORTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND  
SHOWER PROGRESSION.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TELKEN  
DISCUSSION...TWH  
AVIATION...TELKEN  
 
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