858
FXUS63 KBIS 132358
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
558 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE AND VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, THEN TREND COLDER LATE IN THE WORKWEEK.
- A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE, HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE BURLEIGH, LOGAN, LAMOURE, AND DICKEY
COUNTIES. A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THESE COUNTIES WERE
BORDERLINEON CRITERIA, BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION.
OTHERWISE, GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING THROUGH THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND THE CONTINUATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. AS
SUCH, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWEST, MUCH OF CENTRAL, AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL HELP PUMP WARMER AIR INTO THE STATE.
THIS WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN ADDITION, PATCHY DRIFTING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE BREEZIEST WINDS ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW BECOMING ELEVATED WHERE WINDS ARE THE
STRONGEST, OR MAINLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE DOWNSLOPE OF
THE MISSOURI COTEAU.
ALOFT, RIDGE OVER THE WEST CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING, BREAK DOWN FROM A
PASSING SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM, REBUILD AS A SECONDARY RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH, AND THEN BREAK DOWN AGAIN AS A STRONGER CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHAT
DOES THIS ALL MEAN? WELL, ESSENTIALLY A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER IS FAVORED
TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY
DRY (ONLY LOW PROBABILITY, LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT THIS TIME),
BUT WILL BRING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY. THESE WARMING WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY.
IN REGARD TO THE SECOND AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON TIMING, INITIAL
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AFTER WHICH, A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
THE BACK SIDE THURSDAY. ALONG WITH SUB-FREEZING THERMAL
PROFILES, CURRENT LIMITED MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ. IF THIS WERE TO PLAY OUT, FREEZING
RAIN WOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
HI-RES MODELS DON'T BRING IN A DRIER LAYER THROUGH THE DGZ ONCE
THIS SYSTEM REACHES THEIR TIME RANGE. SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD
BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE EQUATION. REGARDLESS OF HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE, STRONG WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
POST CLIPPER, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL COOLING
TREND IS THEN FAVORED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE NBM FORECAST IS PRODUCING
THE FREQUENTLY OBSERVED PATTERN OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
NORTHEAST TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST. OR IN OTHER
WORDS, POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE AT TIMES NORTHEAST TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BECOMES A
CONCERN SUNDAY OVER MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-051.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...JJS
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