291
FXUS63 KBIS 131949
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING MOST AREAS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
110.
- HOT TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
- A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN ACROSS THE NORTH
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- DRY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO
40%) CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
IN THE NORTH.
- NEAR DAILY LOW (20%) CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE HAS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 100 TO 106 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE STATE
IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100. THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110. THERE IS ALSO
ANOTHER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
BISMARCK, DICKINSON, AND MINOT TODAY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 70S POTENTIALLY BEING RECORD HIGH
LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEK SO HEAT
HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE NORTH TONIGHT. WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF
WILL REMAIN HOT, THUS HEAT HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY WILL BE NEED ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DAMPEN THIS WEEK ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE WAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEN LOW CHANCE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COULD REGRESS A BIT WESTWARD PLACING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT, ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A TRENDED
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO KICK OFF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ACROSS
THE NORTH SWITCHING THE WIND DIRECTION TO NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017-022-023-025-055>058.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ018>020-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-059>062.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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