881
FXUS63 KBIS 091955
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
255 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- MUCH COLDER WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH
RAIN IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WARMING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE STATE WITH LOWER
80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT LOW STRATUS FORMING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE MOVING UP INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT,
HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING FORTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A PATTERN SHIFT. TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM IN TO THE 70S AND 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER THE NORTHWEST WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S AS A
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO MID 80S ARE NOT OFF
THE TABLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MOVING
INTO SUNDAY, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A WINDOW SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOWER BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST QPF REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE AS THERE ARE DECENT CHANCES FOR HALF AN INCH
OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
50S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW MIXING IN THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. OVERCAST SKIES COULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST.
AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES HAS
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE GEFS SOLUTIONS HINTS AT THE NORTHERN
STREAM BRINGING IN STRONGER WINDS LATER NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS, CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH WIND GUSTS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TOMORROW SWITCHING THE WIND DIRECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING IMPACTING KJMS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page