852
FXUS63 KBIS 190951
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW (WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION) OVER CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIT AND MISS
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS OF OUR
EXITING STORM SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE IMPACTS FROM THE LINGERING SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ND WITH
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MOSTLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS YOU HEAD WEST TOWARDS THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, THE NEAR SURFACE SATURATED LAYER IS PRETTY
SHALLOW SO WE EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES HERE, IF ANYTHING, WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
CENTRAL ND AND ANOTHER RIPPLE MOVING INTO THE WEST, WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AS WELL. NBM
POPS ARE DRY FRIDAY AND UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENTLY TOO HIGH TO
INCLUDE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAY END UP BEING NEAR NORMAL. MOST WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. LATER IN THE WEEKEND LOW OF 10 TO 15 BELOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. EVERY NIGHT FROM TONIGHT, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WIND
CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT AT THIS TIME THE
AREAL EXTENT IS NOT THAT GREAT. IF WE DO END UP WITH AN ADVISORY
IT WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WARM-UP. WE DO TRANSITION TO
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BRINGING OCCASIONAL HIT AN MISS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS, AND THE USUAL
WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND EACH
SYSTEM. NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE PRETTY HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES SWINGS REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE FOUND
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN EASTERN SITES SUCH AS KJMS. A STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND WILL ALSO BE FOUND THROUGH TONIGHT. THURSDAY, STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND WILL REMAIN FOR MOST SITES. SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOME SITES SEEING CLOUDS LIFT TO LOW VFR HEIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE EAST TOMORROW THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS IN KJMS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS CHANCE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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