037
FXUS63 KBIS 090258
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER AFTER TUESDAY, ALONG WITH NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO NOTE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN ALL PRECIPITATION AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE, GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
A LITTLE LINE OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR IS NOTED FROM
SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK STRETCHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS FESSENDEN. SO
FAR ONLY A FEW DROPS HAVE BEEN REPORTED, AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN THAT TO OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
CURRENTLY, SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ALOFT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WESTERLY WINDS WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP. NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND WITH THESE
CLOUD BASES WELL OVER 10K FT AGL.
WAA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY AS A SFC TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN MT AND
INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADV THRESHOLDS WITH LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY 30-
35 KTS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD INTO/ACROSS THE STATE, WITH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IN
THE LOW/MID 90S WELL BEHIND THE WARM FROPA SOUTH AND COOLER IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL,
WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S
AGAIN EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH.
THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL YIELD MODERATE TO
HIGH INSTABILITY, WITH A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 5K J/KG
OVER CENTRAL ND, WITH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE ROCKIES. STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
CAMS AND ENSEMBLES FAVOR CONVECTION INITIATING OVER WESTERN ND IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST, WHEN AND WHERE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. WE THEN
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS THEY DEVELOP EAST
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ALSO BETTER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
POSSIBLE (VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES).
WITH TIME, STORMS WILL AGAIN (AS THEY DID SUNDAY EVENING) EVOLVE
INTO LINEAR MODES RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN
THREAT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK (2/3 OF 5) FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT AND EVENING. WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
FARTHER EAST VS ON SUNDAY, WE EXPECT STORMS TO BE EAST OF CENTRAL ND
BY LATE EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLOSING OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO PARTS OF THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES (COOLING DOWN INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S THU).
THEREAFTER, WE WILL BE IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MID-DAY
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION SHOULD
ONLY BE LIMITED TO MVFR, POSSIBLY VERY BRIEF IFR IN A HEAVIER
SHOWER. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
MAINLY AFTER 20Z. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A LINE WHICH WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE
EVENING, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MAINLY VFR IN ITS WAKE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JJS
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