432
FXUS63 KBIS 242317
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND THEN DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, SPREADING THEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DOWN FROM CANADA. HOWEVER, SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LEAD TO COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OUT WEST DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 40S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO GO OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SIT IN THE 60S AND 70S WARMING INTO
THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING FORTH A STRONG WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AND BREEZY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAMS LIKE CSU AND NSSL ARE HIGHLIGHTING
SATURDAY FOR A DECENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SYNOPTIC SET
UP SUPPORTS SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO CARRY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE QPF
CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN AS NBM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE
TROUBLE RESOLVING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FAR OUT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING IN SOME
AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM EAST OF MINOT TO JAMESTOWN, AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY TAF SITE
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS.
THE THREAT FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE LOW, BUT ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PRETTY SOLID LAYER OF
MOISTURE AROUND 3-5KFT AT ALL TAF SITES, WITH DRIER AIR BELOW.
THIS WOULD SEEM TO LIMIT FOG PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, IF SKIES CLEAR
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW.
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT, THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TWH
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