171
FXUS63 KBIS 180722
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST
MANITOBA, WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
MANITOBA/EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES FLATTENED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE SLIDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
MANITOBA. OVER OUR AREA, WINDS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP A BIT BEHIND
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES.
FOR TODAY, FLATTENED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA, AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, THOUGH OVERALL
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S, WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, A PACIFIC LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHERLY ALONG THE WEST COAST, LOITERING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
SHORE MID-WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN OVER
OUR AREA, WHICH AMPLIFIES SOME MID-WEEK. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES, WHICH
GRADUALLY WARM SOME MID-WEEK WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK, LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE LOW TO THE EAST, AND OPENING IT AS
IT PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES, RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME WITH THESE
FEATURES, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE RESULTING IN LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE KXWA AND KMOT
TERMINAL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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