656
FXUS63 KBIS 140213
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
913 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
AREA EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45
MPH. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO DIP FAIRLY QUICKLY WHERE CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. THUS, WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE STILL
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
COME ON BOARD WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
OVERNIGHT SO DID ADD AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST HERE.
OTHERWISE, JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING
FORECAST AND UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND TRYING TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE WEST
AIDING IN THE CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE ALL THE LOW
STRATUS DOES NOT CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO BELOW FREEZING, AS LOW AS 25
DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
HOWEVER, IF THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA,
CLOUDS COULD FOIL ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE. TOMORROW, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO SIT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING OUT
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PLACE NORTH
DAKOTA ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM, FAVORING
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THUS
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY WITH WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS WILL TAPPER OFF BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A
SHORT WINDOW WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 30 PERCENT AND WINDY
CONDITIONS LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS
THE STATE.
AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN CONUS.
THIS RIDGE WILL KICK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST RESULTING
IN THE NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT FRIDAY. WHICH WILL CAUSE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OUT WEST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15-20 MPH
OVERLAPPING WITH 20 PERCENT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR OR LOCALIZED
IFR VISIBILITIES AT KXWA/KDIK. FOG SHOULD LIFT MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-
025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ZH
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