743
FXUS63 KBIS 261142
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK AND LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS. THIS OVERALL LOOKS TO BE SHALLOW FOG BASED ON WEBCAMS.
HAVE PLACED IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS FOG.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
MUCH REDUCED TODAY AS WELL, WITH MORE STEADY WINDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE EAST. LOW AFTERNOON RH IN THE 20S WILL BE FOUND IN
THE WEST TODAY, ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S. TONIGHT, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE. THERE ARE SOME CAMS THAT BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. AN OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT, THUS THE OUTGOING
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THE MOST PART TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES COULD COMBINE WITH THESE
LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG, ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
ON THURSDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE
WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY WITH CONTINUED
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO UPPER 80S. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST WILL SWITCH
THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH, AND BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS
THE WEST. MEANWHILE LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 20S COULD
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
SURFACE LOW MOVES MORE INTO WESTERN MT THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE
ALOFT BREAKS DOWN, LIFTING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK LOW TO MODEST THURSDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY HELP OVERCOME
THIS. FOR NOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW YET WORTH
MONITORING.
THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW THEN LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
COULD BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH THIS FEATURE, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE WAVE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS SET UP. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP EARLY
ENOUGH ACROSS THE CWA, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS CLIPPED PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THIS AREA
LOOKS TO HAVE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WHICH COULD HELP
WITH CONVECTION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT COULD ALSO
PROVIDE SOME INCREASED SHEAR IN THIS AREA FURTHER INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND MAY ALSO BRING A BREEZY SOUTH
WIND TO THE CWA. THE SHEAR VECTOR MAY ALSO FAVOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS, AT LEAST INITIALLY, ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THIS
AREA, ALTHOUGH IS VERY CONDITIONAL AND MAY BE MORE FAVORED IN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR IS. OVERALL THIS SET UP
COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL BE WORTH MONITORING FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, COMBINED
WITH A LINGERING SURFACE LOW, COULD CONTINUE NEAR DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CSU- MLP
ALSO SHOWING THE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT STALLS ON SATURDAY, LINGERING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES YET
STILL BRINGING NEAR NORMAL HIGHS. MILD LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVERALL LOOK LOW. SOME LOW RH VALUES
WILL BE FOUND IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE BREEZIER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LOCATED MORE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SEES IMPROVED HUMIDITY VALUES
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN ALOFT THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY BE FOUND IN THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. FEW TO SCT MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE
FOUND IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. THESE COULD IMPACT THE KJMS
AREA, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WAS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL OVERALL
BE A LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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