661
FXUS63 KBIS 250354
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG MAY RETURN AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.
- A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (TEENS AND 20S) TO ABOVE AVERAGE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER (30S AND 40S).
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ON
CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. STRATUS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. SEE THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE STRATUS AND
FOG. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A FEW AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WERE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ND EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, ANOTHER WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST AND A THIRD OVER PORTIONS OF THE JRV.
EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING
THOUGH. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COLD TEMPERATURES NORTH (TEENS) AND MILD
SOUTHWEST (NEAR 40).
CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS
DAY. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND SURFACE WINDS, WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY AT 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WILL BE
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IF WE GET ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, CHRISTMAS
DAY AND NIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE WHEN MODELS BRING
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN A BIT. OTHERWISE, FORCING IS WEAK.
THEREAFTER, A SPLIT FLOW IS ADVERTISED, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
S/WV PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE, BUT A COLD FROPA DOES MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
SAT AND SAT NIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND
MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. COLD WEATHER AND/OR
WIND HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY-SUN MORNING, WHEN
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILL VALUES) ARE FORECAST TO BE AS
LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO AND WIND MAGNITUDES WILL APPROACH 40 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW
EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, AND MAY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ANY GIVEN DAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NBM 25/75 PERCENTILES STILL
SHOWING ALMOST A 40 DEGREE SPREAD. CULPRIT BEHIND THIS IS A
STRONGER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA,
WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BRING A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
STRATUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY STRATUS WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JRV AS WELL, BUT PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE STRATUS UNTIL CHRISTMAS MORNING. A
LOT LESS CERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO FOG. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SURFACE FLOW, IT WOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT.
BUFKIT FOG PROCEDURES SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG,
BUT EVEN SO, THERE MAY STILL BE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. CAMS SHOW LOWEST
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 85 AND HIGHWAY 83. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF FOG BUT
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP CLEAR THE STRATUS/FOG FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY, BEGINNING AROUND MID- MORNING IN THE WEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE THURSDAY BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY OVER WESTERN HALF OF ND BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH
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