616
FXUS63 KBIS 020546
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN EXPECTED HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH, WITH A
TORNADO POSSIBLE.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S POSSIBLE AFTER
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTERLY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND REPORTS
WITH THIS LINE, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN LATELY.
WITH THAT SAID, THE LINE HAS EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANY
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED, SO FOR LATE NIGHT UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A LONE THUNDERSTORM WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN FOR A COUPLE HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING BETWEEN MEDORA AND AMIDON, BUT HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES
THAT CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE THIS EVENING
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT, AND
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE COULD CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
SMOKY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.
DESPITE BELOW AVERAGE AIR QUALITY, WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 MILES WILL NOT ADD A MENTION OF SMOKE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS ENDED
OVER THE FAR SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, MOSTLY IN CANADA, BUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS SNEAKING DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTTINEAU
AND ROLETTE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS NORTHERN
RENVILLE. MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND WAS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. ALL IN ALL AN NICE DAY FOR ALL THE
ACTIVITY GOING ON TODAY.
WE ARE CARRYING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
LATEST CAMS DO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL KEEP THE POPS FOR CONSISTENCY BUT
THE INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND SHEAR IS NIL SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS
VERY LOW. THERE MAY BE A WEAK IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MOVING INTO ND, BUT OVERALL, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
QUIET OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
WE RATCHET UP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. A BROAD
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CAP BEING ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ND BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM MONTANA. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ND NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH, AND ALONG AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND IF/WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG IT. CAMS ARE
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ALONG THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER, TO ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION VARIES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON TO LATE
AFTERNOON SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THURSDAY. IF/WHEN CONVECTION
DOES DEVELOP THERE IS MAYBE A LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IN THE MODE.
CONVECTION ALONG AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE MIXED/MESSY
WITH AN INCLINATION TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH WINDS TO 80
MPH THE MAIN THREAT. AN INITIAL SUPERCELL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
THOUGH BEFORE LINEAR CONVECTION PREVAILS. THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR INITIAL AND LONGER SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS (WITH LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL TO AROUND 2 INCHES) WOULD BE OVER WESTERN ND NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH LARGER T/TD SPREADS HERE (ESPECIALLY
THE WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST) THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE
LOWER, BUT NOT ZERO, GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STORM
MODE. FINALLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO GREATER
THAN 1.5", ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
THINGS WILL BECOME CLEARER. AN ENHANCED RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES BECOME BETTER
CALIBRATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHER
WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST, OR
WHEREVER THE E-W BOUNDARY ENDS UP. THE THREAT FOR TO VERY LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LONGER SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS, WHICH
WOULD POINT TO WESTERN ND, WITH ALSO A TRANSITION TO A MORE
LINEAR WIND THREAT OVER TIME. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN EITHER AREA, BUT IS LOWER THAN THE HAIL/WIND
THREAT. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A TRANSITION FROM MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
ZONAL FLOW. THIS MAY LOWER THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WE
WILL SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS FOR THE MAIN HAZARDS.
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BUT
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, RATHER THAN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EACH DAY, BUT
WITH MARGINAL BULK SHEAR, AT LEAST FOR NOW. WE WILL HAVE TO PLAY
IT ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS FOR ANY EVENTUAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HEAT DOES RATCHET
UP WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MID AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM MONTANA AROUND 07-08Z, THEN CONTINUE SLIDING TO THE EAST.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE, OR CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SMOKE ALOFT COULD REMAIN THICKER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITY BELOW
VFR LEVELS AT THIS TIME. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND +50 KT
WIND GUSTS. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BRIEFLY
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AT LEAST IFR LEVELS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JJS
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