927
FXUS63 KBIS 221412
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
812 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 812 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
A WEAK DEFORMATION BAND OF FLURRIES MIXED WITH VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THIS BAND SEEMS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE RAP 850 MB RH
FIELD. OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS PRECIPITATION WELL.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING TO CAPTURE THE
PRECIPITATION. ALSO MADE UPDATES TO SKY COVER, WHICH IS ALSO BEING
HANDLED BEST BY THE RAP.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TODAY AND TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY'S
COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES.
WEDNESDAY WILL START QUIET AND RATHER MILD COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES
AS OF LATE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS, WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICTING LITTLE OR EVEN NO SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BUT AT THIS TIME WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW THAT
SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SIGNALS FOR A POTENTIAL HIGHER END EVENT: VERY STRONG PRESSURE
RISES, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN. MIXING WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF FLUFFY UNCRUSTED
SNOW EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAY SEE SOME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE BLOWABLE SNOW, BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
BLOWABLE SNOW. THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS THAT AT
THIS POINT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH IS WARRANTED. WHETHER THE WATCH
BECOMES A WARNING OR AN ADVISORY REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT THERE IS
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE
TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD AIR THAT MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FALLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -40.
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH NUMEROUS CLIPPER SYSTEMS
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND BRISK WINDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVERALL, DESPITE A WARMER DAY OR TWO MIXED IN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL RISE AND BEGIN TO
SCATTER BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021-022.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
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