850
FXUS63 KBIS 231749
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW,
AND A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY. SNOW COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS MAY BRING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
- MUCH COLDER BEGINNING TUESDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
- THERE REMAINS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN AN ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER
PATTERN AFTER THANKSGIVING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WEST AND THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S, WITH A FEW 60
DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY. GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT, ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FOUND AT TIMES TODAY. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
ONE MORE WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES BRINGING A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WARM HIGHS
IN THE 50S WITH A STEADY WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH. THIS LOW
AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO PROVIDE FOR PERIODS OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT, AS THE MENTIONED
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A WEAK YET MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. WITH THE TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL A DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT IS IN STORE. IF MORE CLEARING CAN BE
FOUND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES EASTWARD MONDAY, WITH COOLER MORE NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE MENTIONED COLD
FRONT. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN WYOMING, CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS COULD EVEN SEE SNOW MIX IN DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF
COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION RATES.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KICKS OUT THIS WYOMING SURFACE LOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, BRINGING RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW, THEN LINGERING
AS SNOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURFACE LOW,
MAINLY HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW TRACKS. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND THE
HIGHWAY 83 AND EASTWARD CORRIDOR. THESE PARTICULAR AREAS HAVE A
40 TO 80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW, AND A 20 TO 50%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THESE SAME AREAS ALSO HAVE
A 10 TO 30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE QUICK
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH LACK OF FRONTOGENESIS
MAY MAKE HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM DIFFICULT, ALTHOUGH
IT IS OF NOTE THE FAIR AMOUNT OF QG FORCING AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. OF NOTE TOO ARE HIGH ECMWF EFI VALUES FOR SNOWFALL ON
TUESDAY, AND EVEN SOME ELEVATED SHIFT OF TAILS, WHICH IS A
CHANGE FROM RECENT RUNS. AND THE LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS THE BLAST
OF COLDER AIR OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA COULD
PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LAKE. OVERALL THERE IS STARTING TO BE SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TO LOW OF
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS. WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD STILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
ECMWF EFI VALUES STILL FAVOR THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHERN ND
AND MORE SO IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF FALLING
SNOW AND WINDS COULD BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IMPACTS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
DROP BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SURFACE HIGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN SETTLES IN FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY LINGERING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL, PERHAPS
SOME LINGERING DRIFTING SNOW MAY BE FOUND ON WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUES COOLING AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO BE FOUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THANKSGIVING DAY, SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST WHILE ANOTHER BROAD
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS COULD SET UP
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BROAD TROUGH PATTERN COULD BRING
ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
CLUSTERS DIFFER ON TIMING OF DIFFERENT WAVES IN THIS PATTERN,
ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE LOWS IN THIS PATTERN.
NBM KEEPS CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
CURRENT CLUSTER RUNS FAVOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME CLUSTERS WITH INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THERE IS
ALSO INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS
BROAD TROUGH PATTERN. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND NBM HAS FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. THERE ARE SOME SPREADS IN THESE TEMPERATURES, WITH
SNOW COVER ALSO LIKELY TO IMPACT HOW COLD THESE TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT. OVERALL THE END OF NOVEMBER PERHAPS INTO THE
START OF DECEMBER MAY BE ACTIVE AND COLD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SNOW TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ND, AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST ND. HOWEVER,
TODAY WILL BRING ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN TURNING MORE EASTERLY
OVER WESTERN ND AND NORTHERLY OVER CENTRAL ND MONDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TWH
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