237
FXUS63 KBIS 241836
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
136 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 MEMORIAL DAY
AND TUESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST, A CLOSING PACIFIC TROUGH TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL IN BETWEEN. HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 80S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE FAR WEST POSSIBLY TICKLING THE LOWER 90S. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK, BUT IS
FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH MUCAPE DROPPING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE,
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE COMING WORKWEEK AS IT'S SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE GREATER PENETRATION OF THE THERMAL
AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS, NEAR TO RECORD HIGH MAX
TEMPERATURES BROADLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH EVENINGS AS A POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS SPITS OUT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO MONTANA TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR WEST BOTH DAY, NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH/OPENING
LOW FURTHER EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
WARMING TREND TO STALL AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, AS WELL AS INDUCE CHANCES FOR PRECPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE LOW IN MONTANA IS LIFTED
ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER,
THOUGH STILL WARM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS THE ENSEMBLE STRUGGLES TO
RESOLVE HOW WELL THE THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO DISPLACE THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (APPROXIMATELY 85 PERCENT) FAVOR TO THE
COMPARABLY WET SOLUTION, WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH ABLE TO
DISPLACE THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL TO GET SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS BY LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (15 PERCENT)
STILL FAVOR A MORE STUBBORN HUDSON BAY LOW THAT LOCKS THE RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST. IN EITHER SCENARIO,
OVERALL PRECPITATION TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE FURTHER
BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
A PATTERN WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, THOUGH THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
THOUGH MAY BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, BEFORE REORGANIZING OUT OF THE
WEST SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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