922
FXUS63 KBIS 191601
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1101 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
THIS UPDATE WAS TO DEAL WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL REMAINING IN AND
AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY, WHILE ALLOWING THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THUS, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT FOR
FOSTER, KIDDER, STUTSMAN, LOGAN, LAMOURE, MCINTOSH AND DICKEY
COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HAD
THOUGHT THAT LIGHT/DENSE FOG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY
WOULD HAVE ENDED WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF SUN, BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
TAKING A BIT MORE TIME THAN I THOUGHT. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WILL RE-EVALUATE IN
ANOTHER HOUR FOR KEEPING THE ADVISORY GOING OR POSSIBLY EXTENDING
PORTIONS OF IT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DENSE FOG IS STILL BEING OBSERVED EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. BLENDED IN OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT-TERM TRENDS FOR
THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW THAT DENSE FOG HAS BECOME
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 11 AM CDT FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, WHICH HAVE NOW EXITED NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE SOUTH. STARTING TO SEE FOG DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AS HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATED BY HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE MODELS INSIST THAT THE FOG WILL
SPREAD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
SUNRISE. HOWEVER, THE FOG APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE CENTER OF A
WEAK, SURFACE MESO-LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR LANGDON. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG SPREAD SOUTH AND WESTWARD, BUT IT MAY
ONLY BE PATCHY IN NATURE.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY NOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AN 850 MB FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SOME MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THINK
THAT SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS LOOK TOO STRONG FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, GIVING US A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH 50S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WE
EXPECT TO BEGIN TO SEE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WATER
FROM THE MELT BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE SYSTEM.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITHIN EACH MODEL, BUT THERE IS A LACK OF CONSENSUS ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER
NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC WITH THIS SYSTEM, GIVING WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA A RAINY WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE THEN HINTING AT
ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF ND UNTIL
16Z. THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT LOOKS TO BE MAJORLY IMPACTED IS KJMS,
WHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER
WEST, EXPECT KDIK TO REMAIN AT LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. KBIS IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS, SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO THROUGH 15Z. ONCE THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS LIFT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH
A FEW +20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MAY BECOME A CONCERN. EXPECT A 2 KFT WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
AT 35-40 KTS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS.
LOW STRATUS MAY RETURN TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND BY THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
022-023-035-046.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...HOLLAN
LONG TERM...HOLLAN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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