037
FXUS63 KBIS 181440
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND
GENERALLY DRY FOR FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED HOURLY WEATHER
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND TRENDS, WITH THE MAIN
CHANGES BEING TO SKY COVER AND TO SOME EXTENT POPS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING
UP ON SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS FROM ABOUT BAKER, MT TO THE BOWMAN,
ND AREA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS IN
THESE AREAS. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER HAS ALSO FORMED IN CENTRAL
ND, AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WELL. MADE
SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERALL THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND TODAY, WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING POCKETS OF CLOUDS
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND
ALSO EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. SPC HAS GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TODAY. THERE IS SOME MODEST SHEAR YET WEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE AS A RESULT, ALTHOUGH SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT, AND THE LACK OF DCAPE
SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND THREAT TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND GENERALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. VARYING LEVELS OF CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. IF SOME AREAS CAN CLEAR UP THEN PERHAPS
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
JUNETEENTH HOLIDAY, FRIDAY, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE
WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA, EXCEPT SOME EASTERN PORTIONS THAT COULD REMAIN IMPACTED
BY A LARGE UPPER LOW ALOFT IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW MAY
ALSO BRING ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY AND GENERALLY NEAR 70
DEGREES.
THIS WEEKEND, BRIEF RIDGING MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO START. SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BEHIND THE MENTIONED RIDGE.
BEHIND THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO SEE A SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW, WHICH MAY BECOME BREEZY IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY. A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN, AND NEARBY SURFACE LOWS. INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WEST, AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY,
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW MOVES TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS FORECAST TO
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
CONTINUED BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, BRINGING SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK
STILL HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
AS A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE WEST. PLACEMENT OF THIS
RIDGE WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE
STILL PROVIDING SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME EMBEDDED WAVES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY LINGER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH SOME LOW VFR CLOUD CEILINGS AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST SITES NOW HAVE PREVAILING OR PROB30
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SOME BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR STEADY WESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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