551  
FXUS63 KBIS 060246  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
946 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE (40 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ON SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED  
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  
 
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY,  
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS GREATLY  
DIMINISH BY THE TIME OF THIS MID EVENING UPDATE. OVER IN SOUTH  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND AS  
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS HAVE  
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH, WHERE DIURNAL SHOWERS  
HAD PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO  
THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SATELLITE AND  
RADAR TRENDS, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS  
EVENING, WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST AND  
NORTH CENTRAL. THE SPORADIC RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOUND IN THE  
SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERALLY CEASED BY THE  
TIME OF THIS UPDATE. HAVE BLENDED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND  
MODEL TRENDS INTO THE POPS AND SKY COVER WITH THIS UPDATE.  
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME, THOUGH SOME BREEZIER OBSERVATIONS UP  
TO AROUND 15 MPH CONTINUE TO COME IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS  
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE FORECAST REMAINS BROADLY ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN  
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS LED TO SOME SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE  
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR (30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE). SOME ISOLATED  
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN  
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
AND MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD  
DIMINISH OR MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS EVENING.  
 
EXPECT ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SMOKE  
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY KEEP THE SKY A BIT HAZY. LOWS  
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.  
 
FOR FRIDAY, NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT  
WITH A TROUGH WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. A  
SHOWER OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT CHANCES ARE  
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR POINT. IT  
SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BUT  
LINGERING SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ALOFT MAY MUTE TEMPERATURES  
SLIGHTLY.  
 
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS DOWN ON SATURDAY ALONG  
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE (40 TO 70  
PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY  
THE CENTRAL AND EAST). BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WE SHOULD SEE  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE OVER THE  
CENTRAL OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY/DEVILS LAKE  
BASIN. HERE WE COULD SEE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE  
VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE  
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. THUS, THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A FEW  
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW THE SETUP  
EVOLVES. THE FIRST OF THE LONGER RANGE CAMS ARE STARTING TO PICK  
UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND ARE SUGGESTING A LINEAR STORM MODE  
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR IS ROUGHLY  
PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORE  
DISCRETE STORM MODE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILE, WOULD  
EXPECT A MULTICELL TO TRANSIENT/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STORM TYPE.  
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.  
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S AGAIN, BUT WE COULD  
SEE A FEW LOWER 80S SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT.  
 
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND WINDY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE  
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) VALUES  
GREATER THAN 0.8 AND APPROACHING 0.9 SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE  
SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE  
FRONT. SYNOPTICALLY, THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE AS WELL WITH SOME  
PRESSURE RISES, COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE  
POST FRONTAL REGIME. SUSTAINED VALUES TO 35 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS  
TO 45 MPH CERTAINLY SEEM REASONABLE GLANCING AT FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON  
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.  
 
RIDGING THEN STARTS TO NUDGE IN THROUGH MID- WEEK, LEADING TO  
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID  
80S BY WEDNESDAY. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY  
LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN  
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY  
MORNING, INCLUDING AT THE TERMINAL OF KBIS. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR  
VISIBILITY AT KBIS DURING THE MID MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE.  
OTHERWISE, WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
INCLUDING HAZY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND ORGANIZING OUT OF THE  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY  
WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE SPEEDS PEAK UP TO  
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUST UP TO AROUND 23 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...ADAM  
DISCUSSION...ZH  
AVIATION...ADAM  
 
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