300
FXUS63 KBIS 142051
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
251 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 65 MPH
POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (70 TO 90 PERCENT) ARE ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE WHILE SNOW IS FALLING.
- FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, PLACED BETWEEN A HUDSON BAY LOW AND RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN STUCK
UNDERNEATH THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, WITH A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WE'VE OCCASIONALLY SEEN VISIBILITIES DIP DOWN DUE TO
PATCHY FOG, AND THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME INSTANCES OF FLURRIES,
BUT OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE TEENS
EAST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES STAY SEASONABLY MILD TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. A BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST, WITH LOW POPS EMERGING
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
EXPANDS SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
STAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS START OUT COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR SNOW AS THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTRODUCES A SHALLOW WARM NOSE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A TRANSITION TO EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR POSSIBLY SLEET,
DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH AND HEIGHT OF THE WARM NOSE. QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK LIGHT REGARDLESS, HOWEVER, SO WOULD EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT.
MORE SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CONCERNS BEGIN THURSDAY AS A MORE
IMPACTFUL UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A HIGH WIND WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, AS VERY
STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SYSTEM. OUR THINKING IS
STILL THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME IN TWO SEPARATE PUSHES.
THE FIRST COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INITIAL WAVE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION, WITH THE SECOND AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER SWATH OF
WIND ARRIVING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, STRONG LAPSE RATES, AND THE
MULTIPLE PUSHES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL FAVOR VERY STRONG
SURFACE WINDS. THE LACK OF PRESSURE RISES IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME CONCERN ON REACHING THE TRUE UPPER
THRESHOLD OF WIND SPEEDS THAT WE CAN SEE WITH THESE EVENTS, BUT
THE SETUP STILL FAVORS WINDS OF HIGH-END ADVISORY TO LOW-END
WARNING CRITERIA. THE ECMWF EFI VALUES OF .9 TO .95 WITH THE
SHIFT OF TAILS INDICATES A SIMILAR ASSESSMENT BASED ON LOCAL
RESEARCH, GIVING ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO IMPACTFUL WINDS. THE
HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
COUNTIES, WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO THE NORTHEAST.
WE ARE KEEPING WITH MENTION OF NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE LIGHT SNOW
THAT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BLENDED POPS GIVE
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE BOTH SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW
POTENTIAL WITH THE LATEST RUNS, ALTHOUGH MOST ARE SHOWING
STREAKY QPF SIGNALS THAT WOULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SNOW BANDS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
FALLING ENTIRELY AS SNOW, WITH NO MIXED P-TYPES EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED TO BE LIGHT
(GENERALLY A LOW CHANCE OF EXCEEDING TWO INCHES), IT WILL BE
FALLING DURING THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THE INTENSITY OF BLOWING
SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ENTIRELY ON THE FALLING SNOW, SINCE THERE IS NO BLOWABLE
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE SNOW COULD BE FALLING ON AND
OFF, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION OF SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT ANY ONE LOCATION, WHICH MAKES ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS TRICKY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS ALONG WITH WIND HEADLINES, ALTHOUGH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES WOULD LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO
THE START OF SNOW FALLING.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S, ALTHOUGH WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS,
EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW WILL VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS WINDS STAY
BREEZY, WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, AND GENERALLY THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ELSEWHERE.
SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SIGNAL
FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE INTRODUCING
LOW SNOW CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVES
DROPS SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS
ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST. COOLER AIR AGAIN
INFILTRATES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY DROPPING
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST, AND MORNING
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK WEEK, THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG NBM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON A BRIEF WARMUP ON
TUESDAY, BEFORE A STEADY COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS ECHO THIS SENTIMENT, AND THE
8-14 HAZARD OUTLOOK GIVES A MODERATE RISK (40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM
JANUARY 24TH TO THE 26TH, FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD BROADLY EQUATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON
HISTORICAL DATA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR A SIMILAR TIMEFRAME, SO IT WILL
BE A PERIOD TO WATCH IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
MVFR STRATUS DECK IS PERSISTENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS OCCASIONAL PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES UNDERNEATH
THIS CLOUD DECK BUT NOT OCCURRING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG
AND IS LOW IMPACT. BY THIS EVENING, MOST LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
SHOULD HAVE EITHER ERODED OR RISEN TO VFR LEVELS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING AND A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. IN BOTH CASES, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WE DID INCLUDE LLWS AT KXWA/KMOT/KBIS WITH THIS UPDATE,
AHEAD OF WINDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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