281
FXUS63 KBIS 271135
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
PATCHY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME OF THIS COULD BE PATCHY FOG, WHILE OTHERS COULD BE TRAPPED
WILDFIRE SMOKE. FOR NOW PLACED A BROAD AREA OF PATCHY FOG FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE
LIMITED CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS ANYWHERE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MEANWHILE, WILDFIRE SMOKE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION COULD ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CONVERGENCE THIS
MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL MT TO
DEVELOP. A FEW CAMS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FOLLOWING A GRADIENT OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND LATER TODAY.
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THESE CHANCES,
THESE KEPT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST. THIS STEADY WIND COMBINED
WITH LOW RH VALUES MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE FAR WEST TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
TODAY, WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE WEST. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT
COULD LINGER TODAY, ALTHOUGH SMOKE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW BECOMING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TONIGHT, AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND ENCROACHING SURFACE LOW
WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
LOW, ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE MODEST LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR COULD
PRODUCE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM, ESPECIALLY IF A LOW
LEVEL JET CAN SET UP ACROSS THE WEST. MULTI-CLUSTER NATURE OF
THESE STORMS WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS
SOME NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL AND WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC FOR
NOW HAS GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDER IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT,
AS CAPPING AND TIMING OF THE WAVES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY TRENDS FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY,
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AS A
RESULT. SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH THIS
FRONT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW AS THE DRIER AIR
IN THE WEST LOOKS TO BE REMOVED FROM THE MORE BREEZIER WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY STILL REMAINS
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS. STILL FAIRLY CONDITIONAL ON STORMS
BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP AND DEVELOPING ALONG THIS WARM FRONT.
THIS IS IF THE MORNING CONVECTION DOESN'T IMPACT STORMS
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL. IF THIS CAP CAN BE BROKEN,
THERE IS A WINDOW OF STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
SEVERE STORMS. MAIN HAZARDS WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALLS AND 70 MPH WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT COULD FORM, AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER HAIL AND WIND IF STORM MODE REMAINS MULTICLUSTER.
THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMES STP IS
AROUND 1. LCLS MAY BE A BIT HIGH FOR THE TORNADO THREAT, AND
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH STORM MODE IS ALSO OF CONCERN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW STALLS ACROSS THE REGION AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO MUCH OF THE CWA. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. OF
NOTE FOR SATURDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN AS THE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE BRINGS WITH IT A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
AS A RESULT PWATS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED FOR SATURDAY, AND WPC
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE THUNDERSTORM DEPENDENT YET WORTH
MONITORING. WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM AND GENERALLY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW THEN LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MORE LIMITED
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SHEAR REMAINS HIGH. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
COULD AGAIN BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH
WPC PLACING A MARGINAL RISK IN THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THUS AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY. SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS COULD BE FOUND TO START
NEXT WEEK BEHIND SUNDAY'S SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH DRIER ARE
COULD BRING SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY SMOKE AND FOG MAY BE FOUND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THESE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS REACHING ANY
TAF SITE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, THUS LEFT MOSTLY OUT OF THE TAFS.
THE EXCEPTION IS A TEMPO GROUP IN KBIS FOR SOME MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN
LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30
GROUP AT KXWA AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME A STEADY
SOUTHERLY WIND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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