902
FXUS63 KBIS 220909
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORKWEEK, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. NEAR RECORD
HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
TODAY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES AND FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BOTH DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 70S TODAY AND 70S TO LOWER
80S SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IF THESE FORECAST HIGHS HOLD,
DICKINSON AND BISMARCK COULD BOTH SEE A RECORD HIGH FRIDAY.
THAT'S AFTER A POSSIBLE RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. WE UTILIZED A BLEND OF NBM AND NBM90
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR FORECAST HIGHS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. FRIDAY MAY
BRING A PASSING SHOWER, BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. POPS FRIDAY
ARE PRETTY MUCH NIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, WITH A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE
LOWER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH IT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT, WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
FRIDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY AND CLOSE OFF OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SATURDAY
AND THEN TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON
FRIDAY, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THEN NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A SURFACE LOW DEPICTED
ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVER ND DURING THE DAY, IS
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWEST OVER THE MONDAK REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR
INTO SOUTHWEST ND. SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG BUT
THERE IS AN 850 MB JET PROPAGATING INTO SOUTHWEST ND AND WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND A GOOD MIXDOWN POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, BUT IT'S A PRETTY SMALL AREA OF SOUTHWEST ND THAT COULD BE
IMPACTED. IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS JUST A BIT, THE SOUTHWEST MAY
MISS OUT ON THE GOOD MIXDOWN WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
HAS BEEN THERE LONG ENOUGH THOUGH, TO INTRODUCE SOME NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WILL
KEEP WITH NEAR CRITICAL "POSSIBLE". IF THE TREND DOES HOLD, A
SMALL AREA (MAINLY PORTIONS OF BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES) COULD
SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH NEAR CRITICAL POSSIBLE AND INCLUDE THE SURROUNDING
COUNTIES AS WELL.
THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY
SATURDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS
IT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN MANITIBA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A STRONG, BUT DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG FALL-RISE COUPLET THAT LIFTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND A PERIOD OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH 850 MB AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
AROUND 850-800 MB. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS AROUND 45-52
KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH A REASONABLY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE
STRONG WINDS CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY, THIS WOULD BE A MUCH EASIER QUESTION. WITH
THE TIMING BEING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION, GRADIENT WINDS AND ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME THE TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO DECOUPLE. WE'VE GOT A WHILE YET TO DECIDE ON ANY
HEADLINES, BUT WOULD EXPECT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL FAVORED)
FRIDAY NIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING CAN NOT BE RULE OUT EITHER.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE HOW LONG TO CONTINUE ANY HEADLINES ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN PUSH WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE A WEAKENING OF
GRADIENT WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER CANADA, NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR. FOR NOW WILL
INCREASE OUR MESSAGING FOR WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE
ALSO BLENDED IN SOME HIGHER WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
AFTER SATURDAY, WE REMAIN COOL INTO NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THE NBM IS ONLY DEPICTING
SOME LOW POPS EARLY TO MID WORKWEEK AS THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. VERY
FAINT HINT OF LOW STRATUS AT KBIS AND KDIK AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MENTION ATTIM. WILL MONITOR.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MID CLOUDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. EXPECT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF LLWS IN THE WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IT WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUST TO
30 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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