042
FXUS63 KBIS 061341
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
841 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, AND SPREADING ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONLY A LOW RISK OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM EXISTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 836 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
STORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND DECREASE MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
ALSO HAVE AN UPTICK BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOUR. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING,
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND AN
ASSOCIATED DRY LAYER HAVE BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE
MOST PROBABLE PARCEL/UPDRAFT ORIGINATION LAYER FOR THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NEAR 700 MB. PARCELS BEGINNING
FROM THAT LEVEL HAVE RELATIVELY MEAGER BOUYANCY, SO THE ODDS OF
A STRONG STORM THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED. OTHERWISE, THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND RECENT CAMS
STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE-STORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, THEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A BROAD, 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED
NEAR 850 MB IS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND. A
MORE PROMINENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN ND AS OF 07Z, AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THIS MORNING,
AND WILL CONTAIN A RISK OF A STRONG OR ISOLATED STORM, MAINLY
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ELEVATED STORMS. THE
OVERALL RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED BY RELATIVELY DRY AND
WARM LOW-LEVELS AND RELATED CAPPING, THOUGH, AND WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE TEMPERED AFTER SUNRISE WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET WANES.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT -- WHICH IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY OBSCURED IN
EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER
EASTERN MT AND NORTHWESTERN ND - WILL PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GUIDANCE EXPECTS THE FRONT TO ARC FROM
NEAR ROLLA TO BISMARCK AND HETTINGER BY LATE MORNING, AND THEN
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GRAND FORKS TO LAMOURE AND ASHLEY BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON (I.E., 21Z). BEHIND THE FRONT THERE'S ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO FOSTER BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THE AIR MASS WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION, WITH
HIGHS IN THE JAMES SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN ND EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 90S F. GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F, THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG BOUYANCY WITH MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 3000 J/KG IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SOME MIDLEVEL CAPPING MAY LINGER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN ND, AND
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR
NOT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS THERE VERSUS BEING RELEGATED
TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ADJOINING NORTHEASTERN SD. DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, AND
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE, WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK
OF LARGE HAIL (UP TO AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE) AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN PWATS IN THE 1.75 INCH RANGE. THE FOCUS FOR THIS CONCERN
IS MAINLY IN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES, THOUGH 00Z CAMS ARE
SPLIT ON WHETHER THE STORMS WILL FORM IN THOSE COUNTIES, OR JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN NORTHWEST ND
TO THE 80S IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND, AND THE MID 90S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER NORTHERN ND BY TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS SD AND EXTENDS BACK NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THAT CONFIGURATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PLACE SOUTHERN ND IN A COOLER
AND MORE STABLE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT. AS
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CROSS THE AREA,
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF MT AND INTO SOUTHWEST ND LATE TONIGHT, SPREADING
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE AND ITS
RELATED PRECIPITATION MAY CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE FOR
LIGHTNING -- AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG OR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE ND/SD STATE LINE -- THE
OVERALL SEVERE-STORM RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN ND. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
THOUGH, FAVORING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ENSEMBLE AND NBM-BASED
PROBABILITIES OF 0.50" OR MORE OF RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST ND TO AROUND 80 PERCENT
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN ND.
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE EVEN
COOLER THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE PERSISTENT
ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S F AS WELL, BUT A DRIER
PERIOD IS EXPECTED IN BETWEEN IMPULSES ALOFT. THEREAFTER, A
WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES TO
THE NORTH. THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT AMPLIFIES WILL DETERMINE IF
THERE ARE ANY "RIDGE-RUNNING" THUNDERSTORMS IN ND OR NOT, AND
HOW WARM IT BECOMES. SOME 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE COULD
SHIFT WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE DAYS 6-10 PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE HIGHEST, ALBEIT STILL LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF A RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITH ATTENDANT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. HIGHS WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY LATE WEEK, AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF 90S F RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY,
PASSING THROUGH MOST TERMINALS BY 18Z, AND KJMS BY 19-21Z. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS
THAT MAY GUST UP TO 20-25 KT, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ND. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF KJMS
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO SD. LATE TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND OUT OF MT, POTENTIALLY REACHING
KDIK AFTER 09Z.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CJS/JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
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