350  
FXUS63 KBIS 291740  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST  
AREA, THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER MATCH WHERE SHOWERS ARE  
OCCURRING. ALSO INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST  
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CAM GUIDANCE AND REMOVED  
THUNDER MENTIONS DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. CAN'T COMPLETELY  
RULE OUT THAT THERE WON'T BE A RUMBLE OR TWO SOMEWHERE, BUT THERE  
IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER NOT OCCURRING THAN OCCURRING AT THIS  
POINT.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
SHOWERS FROM TODAY'S UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT ARE PRESENTLY  
LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA  
ARE GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST  
AREA. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY, REMOVED MENTIONS OF THUNDER FROM  
THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY WITH  
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LIGHT WINDS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
MINIMAL UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. TODAY'S UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY MAKING SOME SHOWERS IN MT/WY. THIS COULD  
START SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THEN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND SEVERE  
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PARTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LIGHT  
WINDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
SURFACE HIGH UNDER WEAK RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA TO  
START THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE  
HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY, POSSIBLY ENDING THE STREAK OF 90 DEGREE  
READINGS OR HIGHER FOR SOME SITES. LATER TODAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE  
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH UP AND OVER THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE. THE RESULT COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH VERY  
LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
TONIGHT, THE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH  
EASTWARD. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS LIMITED THROUGH THE  
NIGHT, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT  
DON'T RECEIVE RAIN TONIGHT CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD SEES A NORTHWEST FLOW BECOME A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN  
WHICH LOOKS TO HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY AND BRING LIMITED CHANCES  
FOR PRECIPIATION.  
 
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. A  
RIDGE IN THE WEST THEN AMPLIFIES AND BRINGS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO  
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
LOOK FOR STEADY NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,  
WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY LOWER  
SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE SOME LIGHT BREEZES ARE EXPECTED  
AT TIMES. THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO FIRE WEATHER  
DANGER, ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS NOT EXPECTED AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK THE MENTIONED RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN AND  
TURN INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN COULD BE  
FILL WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT TIMES, PERHAPS PROVIDING FOR  
A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME 90 DEGREE  
READINGS RETURN FOR MANY AREAS. SOME LOW AFTERNOON RH MAY BE FOUND  
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE LIMITING THE  
FIRE WEATHER DANGER AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE STATE FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO THE  
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL TAF  
SITES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SHOWERS, BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS  
AT KDIK AND KBIS WHERE VCSH IS MENTIONED.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TELKEN  
SHORT TERM...ANGLIN  
LONG TERM...ANGLIN  
AVIATION...TELKEN  
 
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