719
FXUS63 KBIS 151952
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA.
- STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST HAVE ALSO RETURNED TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTH, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS MANITOBA. WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVE
KICKED UP DUST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OBSERVED IN THE RUGBY ROLLA AREA. WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE STATE, (READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION). HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT HELPING
REDUCE WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
THEREFORE, A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST.
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTH
WHILE THE THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE FROM A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW. SATURDAY A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CLIPPING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
EARLY SUNDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE
SOUTHEAST SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
WE WILL SEE HOW THIS PLAY OUT AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
STARTS TO COME IN.
THIS WETTER PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTH DAKOTA. THERE MAYBE EVEN A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SUBTLE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE EXTENDED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE. WESTERLY WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME BLOWING DUST BEING LOFTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, HOWEVER THERE IS NOT DUST IMPACTING
ANY TAF TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS DOWN AROUND 14 PERCENT TO AROUND 25 PERCENT.
WINDY WEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE STRONG GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS THAT
CAN IMPACT ANY FIRES. DRY LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF CLOUD BASES AND
THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE NORTH
AND FAIR ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 18
TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY PICKING UP BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT OVERLAP WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNSET.
A SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BRING
SUBTLE RELIEF TO THE AREA. NEXT WEEK MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE DUE TO COOLER CONDITIONS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-055-
056.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>003-
009-010-055.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019-020-022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-057>062.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page