687
FXUS63 KBIS 130534
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 90S IN THE
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL ON THURSDAY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR
LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE EXPANDED LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
LINGERING ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD LINGER SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH CURRENT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED.
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET GIVING MAY TO A MAINLY
CLEAR NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. LATER
TONIGHT THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST SOUTHWEST PERHAPS BRINGING
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE WEST. THIS COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE,
HIGH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EAST COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ADD IN PATCHY FOG MENTION. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE WAVE WILL BE FOUND WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD WARM MOST
OF THE AREA BACK INTO THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL BRING HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE
MENTIONED WAVE WILL BRING ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CAPPING FROM WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP. CAMS HAVE A
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY TO LIMITED ACTIVITY FROM CAPPING OR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT SOMEHOW BREAK THROUGH THE CAP.
SUPERCELLS MAY BE TOUGH TO COME BY IF THE CAP BREAKS GIVEN THE
SHEAR VECTOR ANGLED TO THE BOUNDARY. THUS IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
AND MAINTAIN A MULTI-CLUSTER STORM MODE, MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. OF NOTE
IS HRRR SMOKE IS KEEPING SOME NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IN THE EAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAVE INCORPORATED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS.
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE FOUND ON THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO SET UP IN CENTRAL ND. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL
BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S MAY RETURN, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.
SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ADEQUATE TO MODEST ON THURSDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND SOME LINGERING CAPPING ISSUES. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR, THE
SHEAR VECTOR WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH PERHAPS VERY LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS MORE FAVOR LARGE HAIL. IF
STORMS DELAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT, THEN A LINEAR MODE IS MORE
LIKELY WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 2 OUR
OF 5) FOR THURSDAY. STRONG STORMS WOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT,
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
POST FRONTAL DAY IS THEN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. LINGERING
HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER COULD PROMOTE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THIS RIDGE BUILDS WE COULD SEE A RIDGE
RIDING TYPE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AT TIMES OR MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. CSU-MLP CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SOME INCREASED PWAT VALUES MAY ALSO
BE FOUND ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE RIDGE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH HAS PROVIDED FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. FIRST, A RIBBON OF SMOKE IMPACTING
PARTS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT
KJMS FOR A FEW HOURS. EVEN THEN, VISIBILITY WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN VFR, THOUGH COULD BECOME MVFR. SECOND, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA MAY IMPACT WESTERN ND LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. THIRD, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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