840  
FXUS63 KBIS 301925  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
225 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING  
HUMIDITY.  
 
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER  
NORTHEAST WYOMING, BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO THE AREA.  
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE  
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. VERY MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR  
AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD  
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA, WITH ONE VERY SMALL COMPACT  
SHOWER NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY QUIET WEATHER  
EXPECTED WITH THE NORTHWEST BREEZE EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF. A  
FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY WEAK THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP  
PRIMARILY AROUND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE  
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW, WHICH WOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.  
 
UPPER RIDGE THEN GRADUALLY CREEPS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MID-  
WEEK. A FEW WEAK WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BRING  
OCCASIONAL LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER PARTS OF THE  
AREA. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WITH  
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 90S OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, AND  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, HUMIDITY WILL  
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE.  
 
ON THURSDAY RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST, WITH UPPER FLOW  
BECOMING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT  
GOING INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY. FOR THE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT  
STORMS, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED WITH PLENTY OF  
MOISTURE IN PLACE, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS IN QUESTION,  
WHICH MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH  
SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME A CONCERN GIVEN THE MOIST  
ATMOSPHERE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY INTO  
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 
 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...JJS  
AVIATION...JJS  
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