238
FXUS63 KBIS 200909
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
CURRENTLY SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW TURNING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO A NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW, FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR (NORTHWEST ND) OR WARMER (SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL) THAN
YESTERDAY. WE DID UTILIZE A BLEND OF NBM AND NBM90 GUIDANCE TO
TREND TEMPERATURES WARMER. NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AROUND
3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR OBSERVED TEMPERATURES SINCE LATE
LAST WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, BUT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF
OUR CURRENT TREND OF COOLER THAN OBSERVED FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES, WHICH I SUSPECT IT MAY, BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON COULD SEE NEAR RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z SATURDAY. WITH A
SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND WITH
STRONG SHEAR LIFTING INTO THE AREA, AN ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY. THE CSU MACHINE
LEARNING PAGE INDICATED A THREAT FOR THUNDER ON FRIDAY. WE'LL
SEE HOW THIS TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA, WE SEE A SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY SHIFT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WINDS UP
TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN NORTH DAKOTA. THE BETTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
TRACK FROM CENTRAL MONTANA, NORTHEAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. WE COULD SEE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY THEN POSSIBLY SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S
IS KEEPING MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWEST
ND, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER MINRH VALUES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE EXTENDS INTO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY, BUT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, BEING IN THE DRY SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM OVER CANADA, WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LLWS
WILL BE TAPERING OFF EARLY IN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT DID INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF LLWS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AT
KXWA AND KMOT. OTHERWISE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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