993
FXUS63 KBIS 220036
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
736 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THIS EVENING MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
LIKELY EARLY WITH CHANCES THEN DECREASES TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
- NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
TO START THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT IS RESULTING IN RAIN AND SNOW OVER MY NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THESE CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTH WITH THE COLD FROPA THIS EVENING. INCREASED POPS BASED ON
GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND LATEST RADAR AND TRENDS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS FORCING ALOFT
DIMINISHES. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALSO OPTED TO INCREASE POPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY FROM WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT INTRODUCED, WITH A DECENT SIGNAL FROM MODELS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE LEAD TO SOME LOW RH VALUES.
INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN
THESE AREAS, WHICH MAY STILL BRING INCREASED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW LONG OF
A PERIOD THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AS THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING INCREASED RH VALUES WHEN THE
STRONGER WINDS MOVE THROUGH. FOR NOW KEPT WITH NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WORDING IN THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE,
ALONG THIS FRONT ARE LOWER CLOUDS, COOLER CONDITIONS, AND
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS. PRECIPITATION IS SLOW TO DEVELOP SO
FAR WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN THE NORTHWEST, AND BRIEF
REPORTS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST DURING INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY LIMITED SHOWER POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH STILL
MAINTAINED LOW TO MEDIUM POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH ENTERS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HIGH RH VALUES. THIS COULD
PROVIDE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH TO 40S AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH. BREEZY WINDS MAY BE FOUND IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST,
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS WIND THAN TODAY. WEAK WAVES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED WITH SOME STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, COULD BRING A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE FOUND TO START THE
WORK WEEK. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING MILD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SURFACE LOW COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WOULD LIKELY BE MORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S, WITH LOWERING RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND
INCREASED WINDS. PERHAPS INCREASED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN AS A RESULT. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW COULD
THEN RETURN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE LOW
IN THE NBM RIGHT NOW, WITH NEAR 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE NORTH.
COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK. LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW COULD ALSO
BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES. RIGHT NOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK ARE LOW, PENDING ANY WEAK WAVES
IN THE MENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL
DIMINISH TOWARDS 06Z, THOUGH WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WIND EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUNDAY MORNING, THEN WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...NH
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