930
FXUS63 KBIS 041855
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
151 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRESENT AS
APART OF A LARGE CYCLONIC SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BROUGHT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION AND HAS ALLOWED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM. THIS HAS ALSO
KEPT THE WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO STAY OUT
OF NORTH DAKOTA, AND INSTEAD FLOW TO THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT WE
BUMP DOWN THE NBM LOWS ABOUT 4 DEGREES AS LAST NIGHT WE DROPPED
WELL BELOW THE NBM FORECAST.
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, A RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A THERMAL RIDGE
BUILT INTO THE RIDGE WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE LOW 90S, MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, BY THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THAT RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND PUSH THE
MUCH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE STEADY IN THE 70S TO
80S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES 15 TO 20 PERCENT, ALONG WITH DRYING GRASSES. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY, LEADING TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL WAVE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS TO STICK AROUND NEXT
WEEK AND REGULATE OUR TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW (LOW 80S).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN CALM
OVERNIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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