701
FXUS63 KBIS 312011
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
311 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55
MPH OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARDS SUNSET.
- DRY TODAY THEN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
CURRENTLY, DEEP MID LEVEL/SFC LOW OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA, RESULTS IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH MOST CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE WITH
WINDS TAPERING AS YOU GO FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. MOST OBSERVATION
SITES WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY HAVE SEEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
PEAK WINDS, THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE 55 MPH AS A PEAK WIND MENTIONED IN THE
ADVISORY, AND WE'VE OPTED FOR NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF SITES IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE FOR PEAK GUSTS.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST, WHERE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE COMBINING
WITH PERCENT RH VALUES IN THE 20S. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AS THE STRONG WINDS SUBSIDE.
MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT, WITH A MID
LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC HIGH
DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TUE. SIMILAR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS WE ARE HAVING TODAY, THOUGH WITH MUCH
LESS WIND. MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE CONUS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST EAST OF THE
GREAT PLAINS WHILE A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/LONG
WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RESULTS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WAA INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES PEAK
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO
THE 80S TO MID 90S. WILL SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS INCREASING. HOWEVER, WITH THE HEAT AND DESPITE THIS
INCREASE IN TD'S, MINIMUM PERCENT RH VALUES WILL DROP WELL INTO
THE 20S TO POSSIBLY MID TEENS THU AND FRI OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF ND. RIGHT NOW WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THIS
FLOW PATTERN MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY IT IS LOOKING
LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER
ON WED THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS
OUR REGION ALONG WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. MORE UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR LOW VFR CEILINGS FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON,
STAYING WELL NORTH OF KXWA AND KMOT. STRONG WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>019-022-055>058.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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