608
FXUS63 KBIS 101921
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
221 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.
- DAILY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, STRONGEST ON
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THEN HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 85. HOWEVER, WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED
SHEAR MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER, ALBEIT
STILL BREEZY, THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA GRADUALLY CHURNS EASTWARD, WHILE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES GENERALLY STARTING AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SIGNIFICANTLY TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. MODERATE CAA AND MODEST
PRESSURE RISES COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ONLY
PROGRESSING ABOUT AS FAR AS ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. THEREFORE, WHILE
THE NBM PRODUCES A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OF FINAL NOTE, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, USUALLY BELOW AVERAGE, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST, WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE PRESENT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN SOUTH OF
KJMS, SO WENT WITH SHRA FOR THE TEMPO, THOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO
BE AMENDED DEPENDING HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED COME THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. WINDY
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE WEST WILL LET OFF A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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