814
FXUS63 KBIS 222027
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, RETURNING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY SITS UNDER BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONE WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.
SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE WAVES SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS
AREA DOES APPEAR TO BE WELL CAPPED AT THE SURFACE PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS SO STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED. IF STORMS CAN REALIZE
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HERE (A BIT UNCERTAIN PER THE CAMS),
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WAVE THEN APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AND COULD
APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO MAY START
TO KICK IN LATE IN THE EVENING, SPARKING MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME. THE ENVIRONMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT COULD END UP BEING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW
EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TONIGHT.
STILL, CAMS REMAIN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND SOME DECENT UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH IF WINDS CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HELICITY IN PLACE NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER SO A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
STORMS WILL BE SURFACE BASED. A QLCS/QUICK SPIN-UP OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF WE CAN GET SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BUT
IT IS CERTAINLY A CONDITIONAL THREAT. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT
TO THE EAST BY AROUND 12Z OR SO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BY THE EVENING. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE A BIT ON THE STRONGER SIDE PER THE
CAMS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL WARM
BACK UP ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL HAVE 80S BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS. SOME 90S
ALSO CREEP BACK IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
RETURN OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CSU MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME AS A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE KJMS AREA OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING SO RAIN
SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING, MAINLY IMPACTING KXWA AND KMOT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TWO
INCHES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND WIDESPREAD
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS ALSO MAY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC AROUND ANY OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...ZH
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