591
FXUS63 KBIS 300327
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1027 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS FAVORED. A COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR
AVERAGE HIGHS IS THEN FAVORED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE OR EVEN STRONG CONVECTION HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SURFACE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. STILL
COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH DECAYING CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAT OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A JET ROUNDING THE BASE INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN DAKOTAS, WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES TO EJECT OUT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. A
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IS A HIGHLIGHT OF TODAY'S SETUP
WITH 17Z SURFACE DEW POINTS SITTING AT AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE
WARM SECTOR, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE THAT CUTS NORTH-
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE (ROUGHLY GOING THROUGH BISMARCK AND JUST
EAST OF MINOT). WEST OF THIS LINE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTABLY
LOWER WITH A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE EJECTING UPPER JET/TROUGH. THIS INCOMING JET
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE STRONG SHEAR IN THE 50-60KT RANGE WITH THE WARM
SECTOR'S RICH MOISTURE BRINGING A CONDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MADE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
THOUGH SATELLITE TRENDS AT 17Z SHOW POCKETS OF CLEARING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING TREND IN SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, AT LEAST
INITIALLY UNTIL SOME CLUSTERING AND UPSCALE GROWTH LIKELY
OCCURS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE
INTENSITY OF THE OVERALL WIND SHEAR CANNOT BE UNDERSTATED AND
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN TAP INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HAIL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER OR WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 MPH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE COVERAGE MAY
PARTIALLY DEPEND ON HOW WELL EARLIER STRATUS CAN CLEAR, WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS PREVENTING FULL DESTABILIZATION.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL LIKELY LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BEFORE
EXITING AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PLAINS WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WINDY WEST
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS
FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 80S FAR SOUTHEAST.
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY REMAINS WESTERLY, THOUGH LESS WINDY THAN TUESDAY.
THERE IS RISING CONFIDENCE AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE IN CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL RETURNING AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY, THOUGH WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS SET UP IN THE
STATE IS STILL DEPENDENT ON UNCERTAIN MOISTURE RETURN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SOME MVFR TO LOW
VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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