833
FXUS63 KBIS 121750
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RETURN TO
START THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. OF NOTE, TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE WARMING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS COULD
BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR SOME AREAS TODAY.
OVERALL MADE LIMITED CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. A SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM
REMAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD INDICATE NORTHERN
LIGHTS MAY RETURN AFTER SUNSET THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER
COULD BE INCREASED TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BRINGS IN
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
OTHER THAN THE NORTHERN LIGHTS CONTINUALLY DANCING ACROSS THE
NIGHT SKY; QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
A QUIET WEATHER FORECAST CONTINUES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL ND
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TODAY BEFORE ALSO BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.
WEST CONUS RIDGE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AS IT SLIDES WEST TO
EAST TO FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK. SIMULTANEOUSLY, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY THAT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY BY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WORKWEEK THAT WILL REACH ITS CRESCENDO ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. A FEW 70 DEGREES READINGS AREN'T ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TRAILING TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. OVERALL, THIS SET-UP
LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS SUPPORTED BY THE NBM'S CONTINUING DECLINE
IN POPS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SQUEEZED OUT OF THE SPONGE FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE COLD FROPA. POST FRONTAL BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS MAY RETURN FOR SATURDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WILL BE THE
TRAILING COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HIGHER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR MONDAY, BUT BY TUESDAY,
TRENDS STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 30S FOR MOST OF
THE STATE. WIDESPREAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER THE NBM AS OF NOW, ALSO ENTER THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR MOST
SITES. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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