856
FXUS63 KBIS 190525
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT. SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND AS A
RESULT, ALONG WITH LOW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HUMIDITY
VALUES. THIS COULD BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE OVERALL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. SURFACE HIGH THEN BRIEFING SETTLES IN
TONIGHT, BRINGING CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S AS A RESULT.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOWS NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. MOST OF THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WHERE
FREEZE CONDITIONS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. WITH FORECAST
NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT, AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
CALMING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD MONDAY,
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY, WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WEST. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN NBM FORECAST, THUS LOWERED THESE
SLIGHTLY. THIS LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS BRINGS AFTERNOON RH IN THE
20S ACROSS THE WEST. COMBINE THIS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 MPH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
IN THE 60S WILL BE FOUND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN COULD
ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY. MILD LOWS AT NIGHT
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FORECAST. LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL START
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. CLUSTERS
STILL INDICATE TROUGH PATTERN TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME SPLIT FLOW CONCERNS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY FALL. EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITATION IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT, THERE IS
SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COOLER, PERHAPS MORE NEAR NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS WEEK. BREEZY
WINDS MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO AT LEAST START THE WEEKEND AS THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...JJS
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