673
FXUS63 KBIS 020606
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1206 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT THERE COULD BE
POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, RESULTING IN ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 4 INCHES.
- SOME AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MONDAY MORNING.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LIMITED CHANGES NEEDED EARLY TONIGHT. MAIN UPDATE IS FOR THE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT BEING
OBSERVED. NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING. THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD REMAINS QUIET, WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD LATE-EVENING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
REFINEMENTS TO THE PATCHY FOG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
HAVE NOTICED A TREND IN RECENT RAPID-REFRESH MODEL RUNS FOR
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY FROM MESOSCALE BANDING. FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK OVERLY INTENSE, BUT SEVERAL OTHER INGREDIENTS FOR MESOSCALE
BANDING ARE QUITE PROMINENT IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL FIELDS,
INCLUDING STRONG Q- VECTOR CONVERGENCE, STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE A LONG RESIDENCE TIME UNDER BANDING
STRUCTURES GIVEN SYSTEM PROPAGATION PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS/BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY-
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 ON
MONDAY, AND THAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. BUT THE AREA OF THESE IMPACTS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED, WITH EXACT LOCATION UNKNOWN UNTIL ANY
BANDING SETS UP MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE TO OUR WEST A SHALLOW RIDGE WAS
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA, WITH A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS CENTRAL AND EAST. A LARGE STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, AND LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S SOUTH, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. SOME PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOR A ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT
UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SWATH OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE.
SNOW CHANCES BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
MOVES OVER. THE TWO QUESTIONS STILL TO BE RESOLVED ARE THE
BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS THE MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS PRETTY VARIED IN THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF ANY FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE
WHERE AND HOW STRONG BANDING POTENTIAL IS, ALTHOUGH FAVORABLE QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF BANDING. VARIOUS GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
INSISTENT ON AN ENHANCED AREA OF QPF FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, AND THE NBM 5.0
PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT A ~15 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4
INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS AREA, SIGNALING THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GOING WITH HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS ALSO
SHOWN IN HREF POSTAGE STAMPS. BUT OVERALL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, MAINLY FROM CROSBY, TO MINOT, TO
JAMESTOWN.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MURKIER LOOKING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER,
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE WHERE RAIN IS THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE. SOMEWHERE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, FOLLOWING THE RIVER, THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW, BUT WITH THE SURGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, THERE WILL ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW AND
AREA FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING GENERALLY FROM MCKENZIE COUNTY TO
GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES, WITH AREAS SOUTHWEST OF HERE LOSE THE
WARM NOSE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS FRONTOGENESIS COULD BE ENHANCED IN THIS PART OF THE
STATE, WITH QPF FORECASTS SHOWING BOTH A BAND ACROSS THE NORTH
AND A SECONDARY BAND ACROSS SOME PART OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MESSAGE A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH THE SNOW CHANCES, AND WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR MORE DEFINITIVE SIGNS OF SNOW BANDING THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA
DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH, FROM THE TEENS NORTH AND EAST
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STOUT RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, BEFORE PEAKING ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID 30S (NORTH CENTRAL) TO THE LOWER 50S (SOUTHWEST). WHAT
HAPPENS FOR THE WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH MUCH LARGER
SPREAD IN NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES, DRIVEN BY TWO MINORITY
CLUSTERS THAT HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CHANCES FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM ARE
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AREAS FROM AROUND KXWA TO KDIK AND KBIS HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CEILINGS, AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIFR
CEILINGS MIXED IN AS WELL. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST AND LONGEST DURATION IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH AT LEAST IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AREAS FROM AROUND KXWA TO KBIS WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL, BUT COULD STILL SEE
A FEW HOURS OF IFR VISIBILITY. KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS COULD
SEE SNOW FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY NOT
AS INTENSE AS CLOSER TO KMOT. SOME AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, INCLUDING KDIK, COULD SEE A LIGHT MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING, CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THROUGH TONIGHT, EXPECT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM
AROUND 5 KTS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CLOSER TO 10 KTS IN THE
WEST. ON MONDAY, SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO SEE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 15-20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE STATE, WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...ANGLIN/HOLLAN
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