288
FXUS63 KBIS 021430
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
830 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW.
- ANOTHER MODEST WARMUP FAVORED FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN COOLER
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. A THIN BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHWEST, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONE
CHANGE OF NOTE FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WAS TO INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. MOST VISIBILITY GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT FOG FORMATION AS THEY SHOW A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION OVER
A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK WITH VERY DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. IF THESE MODEL TRENDS HOLD, WILL
LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP FORECAST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF FOG.
IN NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE, IT COULD END UP BEING MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS EPISODE AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LAYER OF
SATURATED AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE ADVECTING DOWN FROM CANADA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM GRADUALLY TURNING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS IS FAVORED TO RESULT IN MILD AND DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING WARMER EACH DAY, EXCEPT IN
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TUESDAY COULD BE COOLER AS
A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY
WERE GREATLY LIMITED BY THE FRESH SNOWPACK IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, AND WE EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
ONE MORE DAY. BUT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH AN EARLY MARCH SOLAR
ANGLE AND ABOVE FREEZING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE SNOW BY THE END OF TODAY. AREAS WITH AN
APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE COULD
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. FOR TUESDAY, EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD 50S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND 40S TO
THE NORTH AND EAST, WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA STILL STUCK
IN THE 30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY IS STRONGLY FAVORED TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE
THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S SOUTHEAST
TO 60S SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE MAY NOT SEE QUITE
AS DRASTIC OF A WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IT COULD STILL END UP
BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE NORTHERN UNCERTAINTY
LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN BY THE TIMING OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SINKING DOWN FROM CANADA, WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SURFACE
FEATURE OF NOTE FROM NOW UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPARISON
OF SURFACE AND 850 MB PROGNOSTICS REVEAL THE COOLER AIR MASS TO
HAVE A VERY SHALLOW DEPTH, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. THIS LOWERS THE
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THE 20S AND 30S NORTH TO
40S SOUTH, BUT THIS COULD TREND COOLER IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS
THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
UNCLEAR AS IT MAY BRIEFLY REJOIN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEFORE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST BOTH NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND IN
EASTERN COLORADO ON THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS NO LONGER ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW TO BRING IMPACTFUL WEATHER
TO NORTH DAKOTA AS IT NOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO FUSE WITH THE
COLORADO LOW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS, THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH PARTS OF THE STATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT MORE OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES
TO EJECT NORTHEAST OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWNSLOPE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COULD
IMPINGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLORADO LOW AND PREVENT IT FROM
DEEPENING. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY
IS GREATER THAN ZERO, ENSEMBLES AND ALL CLUSTERS THEREOF
CONSISTENTLY PLACE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.
A RESUMPTION OF THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW AND LIKELY ALLOWING
A SLIGHT WARMUP FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD IN THE NBM DISTRIBUTIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS BROAD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS,
WHICH WOULD FAVOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 830 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, AND THE LOWEST ARE IN THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE AN IFR TO LIFR CEILING AT KMOT
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM AROUND KXWA TO KBIS TO
KJMS, FOG COULD BE MORE PATCHY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
A LOW CEILING COULD REACH KJMS AROUND THAT TIME. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
THEN BECOME MORE VARIABLE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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