146  
FXUS63 KBIS 250545  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN ON SUNDAY, MORE RECORD HIGHS ARE  
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.  
 
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR TO  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY  
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR BLOWING SNOW IN  
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY.  
 
- WE START TO WARM UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, RETURNING TO WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. WE ARE STILL  
SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED AT HARVEY, BUT THIS WILL MOVE  
OUT SOON. THE NEXT WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL ENTER THE  
WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO GENERATE  
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN  
PARTS OF THE STATE THIS EVENING, ALSO ALONG A COLD FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. MODIFIED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. NEXT  
ROUND OF SNOW IS ACROSS EASTERN MT, AND WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN  
EDIT TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
WE OPTED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WITH GOOD  
MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAVORABLE FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLAY. DID  
KEEP CHANCES BELOW 'LIKELY' FOR THIS UPDATE AND FORECAST  
ISSUANCE. WINDS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF, AND SHOULD RAPIDLY  
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION FORMS. THUS,  
ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. SKY COVER WAS  
ALSO INCREASED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS. ALL OTHER  
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE STATE,  
WITH STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FROM A DEEP MIXED LAYER AND  
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT  
UNTIL 6 PM CT / 5 PM MT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND  
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SUSTAINED WINDS  
REACHING CRITERIA MORE FREQUENTLY THAN GUSTS, WITH MULTIPLE  
NDAWN STATIONS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA REPORTING 10M SUSTAINED  
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH AROUND 20 UTC. A COLD FRONT WAS  
ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH LOWER  
CEILINGS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY  
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH  
DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH,  
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING.  
 
BEHIND THAT FRONT TONIGHT, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET  
STREAK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA. LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION START OUT  
WEST LATE THIS EVENING, BEFORE SLOWLY EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION  
TYPE COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY, WITH THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO  
START AS RAIN BEFORE EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. ANY  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, STAYING UNDER AN  
INCH. IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, WE COULD  
SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.  
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO  
THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.  
 
A SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM AN  
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE 30-50% CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY  
NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH A  
WARM NOSE ALOFT, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE TURTLE  
MOUNTAINS AREA. OVERALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  
 
DUE TO THE WARM FRONT, MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN RECORDS. FORECAST  
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.  
JAMESTOWN IS CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO BREAK THEIR  
RECORD HIGH, WITH MODEST CHANCES AT BISMARCK, DICKINSON, AND  
MINOT AS WELL. LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE THEIR  
MAX TEMP EARLIER IN THE DAY COMPARED TO NORMAL, DEPENDING ON HOW  
SOON THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  
 
A STRONG CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT  
TEMPERATURE DROP, GUSTY WINDS, AND MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE STRENGTH OF  
WINDS, WITH NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL IN THE EFI AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
SHOWING ONLY MODERATELY STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.  
HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING VERY STRONG PRESSURE  
RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH FITS  
CONCEPTUALLY GIVEN THE SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP EXPECTED. CURRENT  
FORECAST HAS ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONCERN THEN TURNS TO SNOW FALLING AS THE FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AS THE PREVIOUS  
SHIFT NOTED, A SIGNAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL HAS BEGUN TO EMERGE IN  
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS  
EXISTING SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG LAPSE RATES AND AN UPPER  
JET STREAK IN THE AREA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST SNOW RATES, IF  
EVERYTHING ALIGNS. CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW ARE  
ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50% ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, WITH  
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT  
PROBS FOR AT LEAST 4" ARE AROUND 20%. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOT PICK  
UP ON BANDED SNOW EVENTS/POTENTIAL VERY WELL, SO CURRENT  
PROBABILITIES MIGHT NOT BE FULLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE HIGHER END  
POTENTIAL. OUR BLOWING SNOW MODEL IS ALREADY ADVERTISING ADVISORY-LEVEL  
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, FOCUSED IN THE  
KIDDER/STUTSMAN COUNTY AREA BUT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH  
CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS QUICKLY FILLS IN MONDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES  
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH SOME BELOW ZERO  
LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL  
REMAIN IN THE TEENS, BEFORE TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS COULD DROP DOWN  
TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, AND STAYING AROUND ZERO  
TO THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS BOTH NIGHT COULD BE AS LOW AS 20 BELOW  
ZERO IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST  
LONG, AS WE WARM UP SOME ON WEDNESDAY BUT BEGIN A MORE  
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THURSDAY, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS  
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.  
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND INTO FRIDAY HAVE VERY LOW CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND (WEEK 2 PERIOD)... NBM  
PROBABILITIES, CPC OUTLOOKS, AND CIPS ANALOGS ARE ALL FAVORING A  
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD SETTLING IN, WITH A FOCUS ON MARCH 3RD THROUGH  
6TH. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING THROUGH  
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. IT'S WORTH  
NOTING THAT ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE  
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE TROUGH TIMING GOING TO  
BE A KEY FACTOR IN WHEN PRECIPITATION IS MOST FAVORED AND WHAT  
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. RIGHT NOW, THERE ARE TWO  
GENERAL SCENARIOS FAVORED, WITH A FASTER TROUGH THAT BRINGS IN  
COLDER AIR SOONER (60% OF MEMBERS) COMPARED TO A SLOWER TROUGH  
THAT KEEPS WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA A BIT LONGER (40%).  
THESE TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE REFLECTED IN A VERY LARGE (20  
TO 30 DEGREES) SPREAD IN NBM 25TH/75TH TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES  
STARTING NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH MID TO UPPER  
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE (40  
TO 50 PERCENT) FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (RAIN AND SNOW MIX FAR  
SOUTHWEST) STARTING IN THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD,  
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OPTED TO GO WITH -SHSN INSTEAD OF VCSH  
FOR THE TAFS, THOUGH FOR NOW WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  
WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST/ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...ZH  
DISCUSSION...JONES  
AVIATION...NH  
 
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