229
FXUS63 KBIS 081956
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MUCH COLDER WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL IS VERY LOW.
- NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN WIDESPREAD
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
CURRENTLY, WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW, AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AS A RESULT, INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND
WAA INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOW/MID 80S, WELL ABOVE OUR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY, PUSHING THE SURFACE
TROUGH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. THIS
ALLOWS CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT REMAINS
WARM ALONG AND EAST (HIGHS SAT FROM LOW 60S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST). EMBEDDED LEAD WAVES ORIGINATING FROM A DEEPENING
WEST COAST TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WITH THE SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS CAA TO OVERSPEND ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AFT RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES START TO INCREASE VIA NBM/ENSEMBLES SAT NIGHT/SUN, AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT (LEFT EXIT REGION) INCREASES, FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. CAA AND FALLING SFC TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO RESULT
IN SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN WITH RAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AM,
THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S (MON) AND 50S (TUE) ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. WIDESPREAD NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALSO
FORECAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WITH MONDAY NIGHT/TUE
MORNING LOOKING LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A FREEZE AND
ASSOCIATED HEADLINES.
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW/S/WV TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAIN MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK, AND WOULD SUGGEST A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
AS WELL AS INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE DAKOTAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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