054
FXUS63 KBIS 010607
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
107 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST, SO WILL
START LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, REMAINDER OF FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COULD MAINTAIN A STRAY SHOWER FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BEYOND MIDNIGHT, BUT DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. FARTHER SOUTH, 00Z GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. NO MAJOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR
THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA, CANADA
WHILE A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
LOOKS LIKE ITS DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW ALSO
SITS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE TODAY IS
CAUSING WINDS TO GUST AROUND 35MPH CURRENTLY. WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, FORECAST WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE UP TO 45MPH. TONIGHT WHEN THE DIURNAL MIXING ENDS,
WINDS WILL ALSO RELAX. IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH. CURRENTLY THEY HAVE POPPED OFF IN NORTHEAST MONTANA
AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY AS ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP OVER THE STATE, WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
LINGERS IN THE NORTH. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALSO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DAILY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. ON
THURSDAY THE SPC HAS THE STATE IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1) RISK. THE
MACHINE LEARNING MODEL FROM CSU ALSO HAS A LEVEL 1 RISK FOR
TORNADOES AND WIND, AND A LEVEL 2 RISK FOR HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, ADDING LOW LEVEL SPIN. FOR FRIDAY THERE IS NO
OUTLOOK YET FROM SPC, BUT THE MACHINE LEARNING MODEL AGAIN HITS
THE STATE FOR SEVERE STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA (AS OF NOW)
WITH THE GREATEST RISK IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
FLATTEN BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
THERE LOOKS TO BE DIFFLUENCE IN THE FLOW OVER THE STATE, SO
DON'T RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS OVER THE
FOURTH WEEKEND WILL BE HOT, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S. THE CURRENT RAIN FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY IS ABOUT 30
PERCENT, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SURFACE
HEATING POPPING STORMS OFF. THIS WEEKEND IS NOT A RAIN OUT, BUT
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND THE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT ANY IMPACT TO
VISIBILITY TO BE SHORT-LIVED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...JJS
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