417
FXUS63 KBIS 191736
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BE FOUND THIS WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OFF SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, SO THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU HAS ALSO DEVELOPED FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 836 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND A FEW MORE COULD
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO MATCH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALL IN ALL, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS THIS MORNING. THIS AREA AND SOME
EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT TIMES
TODAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LINGERS ALOFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE MORE CLOUDY
AREAS NORTH AND EAST. THE STACKED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO THE HIGHER LEVELS COULD ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS
TODAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
STILL NOTICEABLE. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT,
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FOUND TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. CLEAR SKIES
AND THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MOST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW,
AND A SPLIT TROUGH FEATURE ALOFT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PERHAPS SOME WESTERN
PORTIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SETS UP, AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, SPC
JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW. THE
MORE ORGANIZED LOW IN THE MENTIONED SPLIT FEATURE THEN MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THE WAVE, THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY.
THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND BRINGS UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK ON
MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHIFT TO
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH IN A WARMING TREND MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. MOST CLUSTERS BRING BRIEF RIDGING WHICH SHOULD
ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AROUND MID WEEK.
THE MAJORITY OF CLUSTERS THEN MOVES THIS RIDGE EASTWARD SOMETIME
LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RETURN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CSU- MLP ALSO
STARTING TO HINT AT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS WARMER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WHICH WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE DIURNAL CU HAS
DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF. WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY TODAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING, WHILE DIURNAL
CU WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS. MOST OF THE CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOW VFR,
THOUGH COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR AS WELL. IN ADDITION, LOWERED
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. ONCE ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END, VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page