872
FXUS63 KBIS 262314
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
614 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND
NOW INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBILITY AS BEEN ROUTINELY
REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS, BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME (LESS THAN ONE HOUR). RADAR SHOWS A BROADER AREA OF SNOW
WITH AN EMBEDDED NARROW BAND OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE
NORTH, WITH ONLY THE NARROWER BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. WEBCAM IMAGERY SOUTH OF I-94 SUGGESTS
VISIBILITY IS NOT BEING IMPACTED AS MUCH THERE, AND THERE COULD
HAVE BEEN SOME RAIN MIXING ON ACCOUNT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MOST CAMS WANT TO DIMINISH THE NARROWER BAND THIS EVENING WHILE
MAINTAINING A BROADER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE,
SO WE WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING POPS OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD PICK UP A QUICK
INCH OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL MONTANA, SOUTH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS HAS BEEN ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MONTANA, WITH SNOW
OBSERVED IN THE GLASGOW AREA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER
VORT MAX AND SOME LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS SLIDES
EAST, CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WATCHING UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, SNOW IS COMING IN
A BIT HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME. WE DID NUDGE UP QPF AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IF
IT MAINTAINS FORCING. IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHWEST, THIS AREA COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT SEASONABLY COOL ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO
MID 60S SOUTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM A DRIER AIR
MASS, BUT WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH, SHOULD KEEP A
LIMIT ON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS STILL AT PLAY FOR NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST DOMINANT CLUSTER GROUP
FAVORS TROUGHING OFF THE WESTERN CONUS COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING,
LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH IS TYPICALLY OUR MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS CLUSTER GROUP IS ALSO THE WARMER OF THE
SOLUTIONS. THE REMAINING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE SPLIT
BETWEEN EITHER A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OR ALMOST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF THE THREE SCENARIOS.
THIS EXPLAINS THE EXTREMELY LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN NBM
PERCENTILES ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START APRIL. SPREAD THEN
INCREASES AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH CIPS
ANALOGS ALSO FAVORING A WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A BAND OF SNOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS LIFR, ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
AS OF 23Z, THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD OF KXWA AND WAS OVER
KDIK. KMOT WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW IMPACTING AVIATION AFTER 00Z.
THE SNOW THERE COULD EXTEND ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT
THE LOWEST VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST 1 TO 2 HOURS OF
SNOWFALL. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND OF SNOW HOLDING
TOGETHER AND REACHING KBIS. IF IT DOES, IT WOULD LIKELY PASS
THROUGH KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY
MVFR VISIBILITY LATER IN THE NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING,
BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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