300
FXUS63 KBIS 232244
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
544 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- NOTABLE COOL-DOWN IN TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS, SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES, SPREADING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ROLETTE COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WE ARE ANTICIPATING NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT ONGOING HAZARDS.
WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE WORKING OUT WELL. WE DID SEE THE RAWS
SITE WEST OF CROSBY GUST TO 50 KNOTS, OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE BEEN
BEHAVING WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE AROUND 35 PERCENT, BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DROP A LITTLE MORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STEADYING OUT AROUND 30
PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS AROUND 30
MPH WITH HUMIDITIES AT 30 PERCENT WOULD HIT RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ND. THIS AREA PRODUCED PERIOD OF SNOW EARLIER IN
WESTERN ND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL ND. ONCE WE SEE WINDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND PRECIP TAPER AS IT MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL ND, REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET.
THE NEXT CONCERN WEATHER WISE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TODAY IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS HANGING OUT OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WE SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH TO NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 12Z AND DOES ANOTHER LOOP OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE, CLOSER TO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW, PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN GRASSY AREAS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE SUN AND CONTINUED BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. MOST CAMS ARE INDICATING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN AREA OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES FROM SOUTHWEST ND AROUND MIDDAY AND
PROGRESSING EAST INTO CENTRAL ND AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN ND FRIDAY EVENING. THE RAP IS SHOWING A
SIGNAL FOR SOME CAPE UP TO AROUND 300 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME 0-2KM
RH AND 950-900MB FORCING. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
DON'T LINE UP GREAT AND THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT GOING TO MESSAGE SNOW SQUALLS
ATTIM, BUT MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND WILL PASS ALONG MONITORING THE SNOW SQUALL
POTENTIAL.
REGARDING THE WINDS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WINDY AS TODAY.
HOWEVER, THE NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL ND MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, KEEPING THE AREA IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO CAMPS, A QUICKER AND WEAKER
SOLUTION VERSUS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION. CURRENTLY THERE
IS A SLIGHT 60 TO 40 PERCENT FAVORING OF THE SLOWER AND STRONGER
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE QUICKER AND WEAKER SOLUTION
CLIPS MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH
WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER
THAN A QUARTER INCH, RANGING FROM AROUND 70-80 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR EVEN AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CEILINGS THEN LOWERING IN THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AS
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. WESTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH MID TO LATE EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. OUR LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER
THAN A QUARTER INCH, RANGING FROM AROUND 70-80 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STAY TUNED!
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-
040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-047-
048-050-051.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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