479
FXUS63 KBIS 251128
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH, EXPECTED TODAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE FOUND TODAY
ALONG, SOUTH, AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ESPECIALLY FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH LOW
TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOOK FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND,
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, LOWER
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THESE LATEST TRENDS, ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. THIS
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S. CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AS WELL TO THESE AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALSO
PROVIDE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO BE FOUND AS THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA,
ALTHOUGH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
STILL COULD BE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG, WEST, AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THESE AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON RH
VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED MORE IN THE NORTH AND
EAST, AND RH VALUES SHOULD BE IMPROVED TODAY WITH THE LOWER
TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE AN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS WILL JUST
MESSAGE THE LIMITED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
AFD AND THE FWF FOR NOW. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LESSENING WINDS TO THE
AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AS A RESULT.
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, PERHAPS
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE MAY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
SURFACE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY, WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, ALTHOUGH THURSDAY COULD SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL LOWER INTO THE 20S AND 30S EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE MENTIONED RIDGE COULD
THEN BREAK DOWN SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO RETURN EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CSU-MLP ALSO SHOWING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
BREEZY WINDS MAY BE FOUND ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE
BREEZIER WINDS DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE LOWEST RH ON FRIDAY,
WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNDAY COULD
SEE THESE BREEZIER WINDS LINE UP WITH SOME LOWER RH IN THE WEST,
WHICH MAY BE WORTH MONITORING FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME LOWER VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY, WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH TODAY AS WELL. CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND THROUGH THE DAY, DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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