608
FXUS63 KBIS 050205
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
905 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S TODAY AND FRIDAY, WARMING INTO THE
80S AND LOW 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.
- A MORE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. MOSTLY JUST
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ENTERED THE STATE, HOWEVER THEY
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH AND
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S. AS OF NOW THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. WILL DO ANOTHER UPDATE
IF/WHEN IT GETS CANCELED EARLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA GRADUALLY CHURNS EASTWARD AND KEEPS
DRIER AIR OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID, GULF MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY ADVECT INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE ENHANCED INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER, THOUGH SEVERE STORMS
ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE STATE. 60 MPH
WINDS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF THESE MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH OVERALL FRIDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE FORCED FROM WAA OFF DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED AND THESE WOULD BE FAVORED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY, ANY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
AS ALLUDED TO BY MENTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH, LOW PRESSURE WILL PARTIALLY DIG INTO THE
WEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CURRENT MODELS FAVOR GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO WESTERN ND ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST FORCING OFF MID-LEVEL S/W ENERGY IS FAVORED TO REMAIN
IN MONTANA, WHILE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS. OVERALL, CONCUR WITH SPC AND CSU MACHINE
LEARNING THAT SATURDAY WILL FAVOR EASTERN MONTANA MORE THAN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH A CONDITIONAL
THREAT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER REMAINS.
SUNDAY CURRENTLY CONTAINS THE HIGHEST RISK OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND MODELS IN FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW
SLIDING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA, SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS PROBABLE TO
SOME EXTENT. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PROGGED SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
SHARP GRADIENT IN THE STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS FAVORED IN
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION AND WEAKER SHEAR IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE SIMILAR TO SPCS OUTLOOK WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
FURTHER EAST, AND A CASE WHERE STORM INTENSITY MAY DECREASE AS
STORMS TRACK EASTWARD.
MODELS FAVOR ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST CONUS NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS NEXT TROUGH, AS WELL AS THE TIMING WHEN/IF IT LIFTS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL IN ALL, PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID
90S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
COOLDOWN IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
AFTER WHICH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER COOL DOWN ARE FAVORED
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. OF NOTE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 903 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS EVENING THERE ARE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL. SO FAR THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO
HIT ANY OF THE MAIN TERMINALS, WILL AMD THE TAF IF THAT CHANGES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING,
THEN FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...SMITH
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