599
FXUS63 KBIS 141817
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
117 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
- STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST
IS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
- HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS IS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
HIGH WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WIDESPREAD 60 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE
PRODUCED BLOWING DUST ON THE DRY LANDSCAPE. BLOWING DUST HAS
LOWERED VISIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE DOWN TO 3/4 OF A MILE IN SOME SPOTS. THEREFORE, A DUST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND HIGH
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MIXING HEIGHT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY, THUS MIXING
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A PRETTY STRONG
JET MAX WITH SOME OF THE MODELS HAVING 70 KTS AROUND 700 MB.
THEREFORE, HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE TO MATCH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF SHOWERS HAS TAPPED INTO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE MOST FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVING BEEN FROM EASTERN BURLEIGH INTO WELLS
COUNTY. ISSUED A COUPLE SPSS FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR 55 MPH WIND GUSTS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY, STRONG WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS JUST ENTERED WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS FROPA WILL SWITCH WINDS
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THAT PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE PRIMARILY VIRGA, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS WELL AS A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES,
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND WIND UP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AND THEN REMAIN TIGHTLY WOUND THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, OVERALL VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FAVORED IN
THE NORTHWEST. ALL IN ALL, ONGOING WIND HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME. ONE OTHER NOTE IS THAT PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS
EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH THESE STRONG WINDS.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. AFTER WHICH, MODELS
ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER COLORADO AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HELP BRING BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THOUGH MODELS MAINTAIN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
HOW FAR INTO NORTH DAKOTA IT WILL PENETRATE BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SPIGOT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH ALL OF
THE STATE CURRENTLY SEEING MULTIPLE SIX HOUR PERIODS OF 60
PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NBM
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS IN EXCESS OF 50
PERCENT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 85, AND AROUND 30
PERCENT ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
70S. COOLER CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ARE THEN
FORECAST ON SUNDAY. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALBEIT WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND, ARE THEN FAVORED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES COULD WIND UP BEING NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT POSSIBLY ACROSS A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA STARTING SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A DYNAMIC SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. THESE
HIGH WINDS HAVE CAUSED BLOWING DUST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. KXWA HAS BEEN IMPACTED THE
MOST WITH LOWERED VISIBILITY AND WINDS UP TO 50KTS HAVE BEEN
RECORDED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH
BLOWING DUST LIKELY PERSISTING. THERE COULD BE SOME OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS AS WINDS DECREASE A BIT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
DRY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR
THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTING IN WINDS
SHIFTING FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO A WESTERLY
COMPONENT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOES ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE LOWER LEVELS ARE SO DRY THAT NO MORE
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO
FAR. THAT IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE, THOUGH OF NOTE, A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND WIND UP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, REMAINING SO THROUGH FRIDAY, AS IT
GRADUALLY CHURNS TOWARDS JAMES BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
REMAIN PERSISTENTLY WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH A DROP IN WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE AS
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS LOST. CONSIDERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE ONLY AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT, WILL CONTINUE THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
SHOULD THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH LIKELY MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
WINDS SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT, BUT WILL TRANSITION FROM A
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO BEGIN IN COLORADO BEFORE LIFTING
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN
OF WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH, THE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION KEEPS INCREASING. AT THIS POINT, FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ALMOST EVERY PART OF THE STATE HAS AT
LEAST ONE SIX HOUR PERIOD WITH A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
WETTING RAIN. EVERY PART OF THE STATE HAS MULTIPLE SIX HOUR
PERIODS OF AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017-055-056.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001>004-009-010-017>020-031>033-040>042-055>059.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ018-
031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ019-020-
022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-057>062.
UPDATE...JOHNSON/TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...TELKEN
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