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FXUS63 KBIS 161127
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING HAIL TO 1 INCH DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE FOUND TODAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
ARE SHOWING UP IN THE WEST, ALTHOUGH LIMITED REPORTS HAVE BEEN
NOTED SO FAR. STILL LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS SOME UNORGANIZED
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH
OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SOME
CAPPING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW COULD BE SOME BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. MEANWHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, SURFACE
LOW MOVES SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN. WARM FRONT
STALLS AND THEN PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
END RESULT COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SHEAR REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SETUP, ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR VECTOR IS PARALLEL TO SLIGHTLY ANGLED TO THE MENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS STORM MODE COULD BE LINEAR TO
MULTICLUSTER TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER CAPE AND DCAPE
VALUES MAY ALSO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS RIGHT AT SEVERE CRITERIA TODAY.
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD INDICATE PERHAPS AN INCREASED HAIL
THREAT AT TIMES DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE MENTIONED FRONT.
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING SOME
INCREASED SRH TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHER LCLS AND A LACK OF
SUPERCELL STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT TODAY. AS
THIS FRONT AND UPPER WAVE STALLS TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE STALLED
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD BRINGING IN COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. AN INCREASED GRADIENT, COMBINED WITH PRESSURE RISES, AND
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING SOME STRONG WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY,
LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY, YET STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, CLUSTERS INDICATING NORTHWEST
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LIKELY DEPENDING ON THE BUILDING AND
SUSTAINING OF A RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE
SPREADS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FROM
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE, WEAK WAVES IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CSU-
MLP CURRENTLY SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH, IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. THIS SURFACE LOW COULD, HOWEVER, BRING SOME BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, AND MOST SITES
HAVE PROB30 MENTIONED FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS EVENING
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS.
AFTER THIS PUSH OF THUNDERSTORMS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A MIX OF PROB30 AND PREVAILING GROUPS WERE
USED IN THE TAFS FOR THESE CHANCES. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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