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FXUS63 KBIS 011216
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
616 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGE FROM BELOW NORMAL IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (20S) TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST
(AROUND 35 TO 40).
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FAVORED TO END
THE WORK WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
CLOUD COVER REMAINS A CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST EARLY
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE FLURRIES
OBSERVED AT TIMES UNDERNEATH THE LOWER STRATUS IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND NOW SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. FURTHERMORE, RADAR
REFLECTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INCREASED FROM AROUND DICKINSON TO
FORT YATES IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE 12Z BISMARCK RAOB SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY
AIR STILL TO WORK THROUGH, BUT MOST CAMS ARE NOW SHOWING A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW (FAR WEAKER THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY) MOVING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WAS INTRODUCED WITH THIS
UPDATE. ANY NEW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER HALF
AN INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
PROMOTING AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER THE STATE, ONE OF WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES IN NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. THIS SPECIFIC BATCH OF
CLOUDS/FLURRIES IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS 925 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WANES. BUT 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, PARTICULARLY
IN THE MORNING AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THAT EXPECTATION PAIRED WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK HAS PROMPTED US TO
DECREASE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW FELL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH MOSTLY
20S EXPECTED. NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS ALSO FORECAST TO SEE
HIGHS IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE MORE LIKELY TO REACH THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAY ASSIST THE FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS, WITH 20S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO EVOLVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING UP IN CANADA WHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH A
HEAVILY FAVORED WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
CULMINATING IN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE. FOR MONDAY,
WE ONCE AGAIN DECREASED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO A
BLEND OF THE 25TH AND 50TH PERCENTILES OF THE NBM DISTRIBUTION
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
STILL PLACES HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, SO NO DEVIATIONS
FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NBM GUIDANCE WERE MADE BEYOND MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
THERE ARE COMMON THEMES OF BOTH A) A NOTABLE COOL DOWN FROM
WEDNESDAY AND B) A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE GEFS STRONGLY FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS. THIS WOULD BE A COLDER AND WETTER/SNOWIER SOLUTION
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAN THE OTHER FAVORED
OUTCOME OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITHIN A
CONTINUATION OF THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME. BUT EVEN IN THE GEFS-
HEAVY CLUSTERS, THERE IS STILL ONLY A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR EXCEEDING ONE INCH OF SNOW (USING A 10:1 SNOW RATIO). IT MAY
BE WORTH NOTING THOUGH THAT THERE IS A SMALL MINORITY CLUSTER
(AROUND 10 PERCENT TOTAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP) THAT SHOWS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.5" LIQUID FALLING AS SNOW, AKIN
TO OUTPUT OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS. ALSO WORTH NOTING IS
THAT CLUSTERS THAT ARE NOT DOMINATED BY THE GEFS DO HINT AT A
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACK OF A
COLORADO LOW SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD INFRINGE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FAVORED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND INCLUDES A STRONG
CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A QUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN
STREAM ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD
REMAINS QUITE LARGE, NBM GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR A SLIGHT WARMUP
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NBM DOES INTRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW ON SUNDAY, BUT PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE
REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS REMAINS LOW, BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL LIFT AND/OR GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY LOW CLOUDS, BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AVIATION. ONE
EXCEPTION THOUGH IS THAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE A BAND OF MORE
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD APPROACH KBIS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND KJMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND
5-10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AT AROUND 10-15 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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