952
FXUS63 KBIS 121954
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
110, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S TONIGHT.
- COOLER NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT STILL HOT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
- DRY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO
40%) CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR DAILY LOW (20%) CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 106 TO 109 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SEEING 100 TO 105. THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110. THERE IS ALSO A
HIGH CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR BISMARCK,
DICKINSON, WILLISTON, AND MINOT FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. TONIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 70S
POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE SAME
LOCATIONS.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 100 TO 105 WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS BEING
THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SAG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S FOR CROSBY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DAMPEN THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE WAVES
TRAVERSING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THERE ARE
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTER
THAT, ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE
IS SOME LLWS TONIGHT DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BEFORE THEY SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-
040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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