364
FXUS63 KBIS 140604
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- STRONG WINDS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CHANCES (40 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A SOLID BATCH OF RADAR ECHOES ARE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS, WHILE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEMSELVES ARE
AROUND 30 DEGREES. EVEN WHEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OCCURRED
NEAR THE WILLISTON AIRPORT, ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES WERE REPORTED.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH A FEW MORE RUMBLES
OF THUNDER, WILL CONTINUE PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN VIRGA, PERHAPS
WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
MAIN CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO ADD LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, AS MOST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE BRINGING SOME
OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO AND
THROUGH OUR AREA, THOUGH DO EXPECT THIS TO BE REALLY HIT AND
MISS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS IS REFLECTED
WELL IN THE ONGOING FORECAST, SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OUT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS HAS LED TO A NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HAS LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, (READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION).
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THIS
COULD BRING SOME REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MOVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE
UPPER LOW. THUS, LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE FRIDAY. A 60 KT 700 MB JET MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO LINE
UP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY SUPPORTING HIGH WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT, THUS LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A COLDER
AIRMASS. THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR FROST ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. A SUBTLE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING IN A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A SUBTLE REPRIEVE FROM
THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLDER
AIR MASS RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS
TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSED OVERHEAD. THE
PATTERN REMAINS TO LOOK ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THESE WILL REMAIN VIRGA WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWEST, AND COULD SEE A FEW
MORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE BRIEF LLWS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HAS LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS BECAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA LEADING
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A DYNAMIC SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT,
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS AND
GUSTS FROM 55 TO 65 POSSIBLE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE DURING
THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONG ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 15 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
ARE FORECAST TO BE POOR WITH HIGH WINDS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND AROUND 15-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE.
SATURDAY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE, BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
STILL BE AROUND 20 PERCENT. A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE STATE WITH 50 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009-010-017-055-056.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>003-009-010-017-055-056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013-019-020-022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-
057>062.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ018-
031>033-040-041-043-044.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TELKEN
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON
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