966
FXUS63 KBIS 230548
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OR
LINGERING SMOKE. FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROWING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET, AND SOME 5-6SM VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT A FEW AWOS SENSORS, LIKELY DUE
TO SOME NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE BEING DETECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING, BUT AT THIS TIME
THERE'S NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE EITHER FOG OR GROUND-
LEVEL SMOKE IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH
THIS UPDATE, BLENDING OBSERVED TRENDS AND RECENT GUIDANCE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN AND A BROAD, LEE-SIDE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS IN CENTRAL MT. SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS
EXTENDING FROM AROUND WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON AND THEN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ND WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
EMANATING FROM CENTRAL MT CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ND
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL A QUIET AND DRY NIGHT REMAINS ON TAP, AND
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SITUATED
AS WE ARE BETWEEN A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A
HUDSON BAY LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE THIS PATTERN, DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE PRECPITATION OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH WE CAN NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LINGERING SMOKE REMAINS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME
OF THIS SMOKE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THOUGH THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AS LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURNS
INCREASINGLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL AGAIN SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY,
THIS INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT STYMIED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
KEEPING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S RANGE. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY (MODEL VALUES APPROX
500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER) AND THE FAVORABLE
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH THIS WEAK WAVE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST.
A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS THEN ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING INTO LOWER 90S TO LOWER
100S, AND WITH DEWPOINTS RISING WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS POTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL, MODEL MUCAPE VALUES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ARE BEGINNING TO RISING INTO THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE.
MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND THIS TIME ALSO BEGIN TO PEAK
INTO INTO THE 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER
REGARDING LOCATION AND COVERAGE RELATING TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY. OVERALL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD IS RELATIVELY
WEAK, AND THE GREATEST HEIGHT RISES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT UP IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL, SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OVERLAP TO GET THINGS GOING. THAT BEING SAID, CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE SOME CI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER POINT OF CONTENTION IS POTENTIAL
STORM MODE. GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD FRONT / SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY
ORIENTATED IN A SSW TO NNE DIRECTION BETWEEN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UP THROUGH THE GRAND FORKS AREA. WITH BULK SHEAR VECTORS ROUGHLY
AT AT AROUND 45 DEGREE ANGLE OR LESS TO THIS POTENTIAL
BOUNDARY, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HERE MAY BE MORE OF A MIXED
STORM MODE. ALL OF THAT IS TO SAY THAT ADVERTISING POTENTIAL
HAZARDS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A SHAMBLE. MY CURRENT FEELING IS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS GOING TO BE
DAMAGING WIND, AS HIGH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000- 1500 J/KG
EXPECTED, AND HIGH LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0-10.0 C/KM WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS FROM THE JET TO MIX DOWN TOWARD THE
SURFACE, AND AS THE DRY, INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL DOWNWARD ACCELERATION DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
PROCESSES. OTHERWISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
THERE, ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISCRETE, SURFACE-BASED STORMS MANAGES
TO POKE THROUGH THE RESIDUAL CIN LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HIGHEST HAIL THREAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP, AS HINTED BY SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
AND THE MODEST CLOCKWISE ELONGATION OF THE HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL, INCLUDE THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. AS IT STANDS, THE SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN POINT OF CONCERN FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND IS GOING TO BE THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK INTO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE, WITH SUCH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN LAST WEEK'S HEAT EVENT, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN CRITERIA FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY VERSUS AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING DURING THIS
PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP EVALUATING THIS PERIOD MOVING
FORWARD, ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE CAMS BEGIN TO GET INGESTED
INTO THE NBM BY TOMORROW. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND IS FIRE WEATHER. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A
PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW COOLER, YET
STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK, FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS ALSO COMPARABLY MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECPITATION THAN
THIS WEEK'S, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ANY GIVEN DAY. NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECPITATION OR
SEVERE WEATHER IS ADVERTISED BY THE ENSEMBLE FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION IS IN SOUTHWESTERN ND, AROUND KHEI, WHERE THERE'S
ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10
KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. PATCHY FOG OR PATCHY WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY BRING SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME AS WELL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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