936
FXUS63 KBIS 290038
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (COOLER NORTHEAST, WARMER
SOUTHWEST) CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, THEN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
A WINTRY MIX SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE, MOST OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE, WITH A FEW ECHOS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT SO FAR NO INDICATIONS OF
ANYTHING AT THE GROUND AT THIS POINT PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
WITH THAT SAID, LOW CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR IF/WHEN SOME
SNOW MAY OCCUR. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW
SLIDING SOUTH. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
TACT, BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE WEST AS HIGH
CLOUD COVER HAS PUSHED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, AND LOWER CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE DAKOTAS, WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE JET STREAM OVER MONTANA. THIS NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CARRY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A BLANKET OF CLOUDS COVER THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO.
THIS EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM EASTERN MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND SUNSET, SLOWLY EXPANDING EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
BETWEEN NEW SALEM AND MEDORA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER FROM 1AM
TO 4AM CT. AT LEAST A TRACE OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM CROSBY TO
BISMARCK TO LINTON AND WEST. THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF 40
PERCENT. SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOW TOTALS,
NOT SURE IF THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE OR NOT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO, TO THE TEENS ABOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL. THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WILL STILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND BRIEFLY BRING SNOW FLURRIES TO NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE WITH
SURFACE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX AND MORE LIGHT SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE STARTING IN THE MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE WEST, BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MAINLY SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. AT LEAST A TRACE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL. SNOW WILL END WEST
TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING.
THE FLOW WILL THEN BE MORE ZONAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING A
DRASTIC WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
COULD BE IN THE 30S AND MAYBE 40S. MULTIPLE WAVES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH AND LOOK MOSTLY DRY AS OF NOW, BUT THERE ARE SLIGHT
HINTS OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE MODELS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS
OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR
VISIBILITY, TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, GREATEST CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCES THAT SOME OF THE SNOW
COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AFFECTING
THE KBIS TERMINAL VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...JJS
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