294
FXUS63 KBIS 201738
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST
MID NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. WITH A MORE SOLID CLOUD DECK INCOMING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED. IN ADDITION, SOME OF THIS DIURNAL CU MAY
DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN THE TRADITIONAL PEAK HEATING TIMEFRAME
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK
PENETRATES THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS, PATCHY
MORNING FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG HAS
FORMED IN EASTERN PORTIONS AND MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR THESE AREAS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TODAY.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A
SWITCH TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW, PERHAPS BECOMING BREEZY ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY. TONIGHT, SPLIT LOWS WILL
BEGIN TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS. SPC HAS A
GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THIS
FEATURE, WITH THE MARGINAL RISK NOT TOO FAR AWAY. IF THE AXIS OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN GET INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND, THEN PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THIS SETUP IS
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A STEADY
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SUNDAY, THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD WHILE THE SOUTHERN CANADA LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S WEST TO 70S EAST, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PORTIONS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INTO CENTRAL ND THIS
PRECIPITATION CAN GET ON SUNDAY, AS DRY EASTERLY AIR MAIN HOLD
OFF THESE CHANCES. SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO BE FOUND ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN LOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AND PROGRESSIVE MONDAY. THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOST OF THE STATE, WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES, WHICH IS BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS. A SOUTH WIND BECOMING A WESTERLY WIND MAY
ALSO BE FOUND AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS SLOW
MOVING LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND PERHAPS BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THIS
LOW MOVES THREAT, AND THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN LOW
GIVEN AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GO ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
IN THE WEEK. SOME CLUSTERS WANT TO MOVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PATTERN THROUGH, WHILE OTHERS HOLD ON TO A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
LONGER. EVEN IF THE WEAK RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS OUT, PLACEMENT OF
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME UNSETTLED
NORTHWEST FLOW AT TIMES. THUS THE FORECAST INTRODUCES SOME
SLIGHT POPS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THE TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY ARE KDIK AND KXWA
WITH LOWER CHANCES AT KBIS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, MAINTAINED
PROB30 AND PREVAILING MENTIONS AS SHRA FOR NOW. OTHERWISE,
MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ENCROACH INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CU OVER MOST LOCATIONS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD PRODUCE LOW VFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY RISE IN
HEIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER PEAK HEATING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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