384
FXUS63 KBIS 242323
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- MAINLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
- CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH MUCH
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD IN THE
EASTERN END OF THE PEACE GARDEN STATE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SUITABLE VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR
THE NORTHERN LIGHTS, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY STATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
CURRENTLY, S/WV MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH WEAK/SUBTLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CREEPING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. SUNNY WEST WITH LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVER MY EAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHWEST AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE WEST AND CENTRAL. COOLER
UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG REDEVELOPING EAST TO
WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE, SUBSIDENCE, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAP/HRRR START OUT THE FOG IN MY SOUTHEAST
04-06Z, THEN EXPANDING WEST INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY AS LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BREEZY WEATHER
RESULTS ON FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY COMPARED
TO THU. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS FRI/FRI NIGHT, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ALONG TO EAST OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
CENTRAL ND.
WE REMAIN IN A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WELL DEFINED LEAD EMBEDDED WAVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER JET
DYNAMICS AND A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG 0-6 KM WIND
SHEAR WITH UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, A FEW ON THE STRONGER SIDE
(MACHINE LEARNING SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE). AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR MONDAY, WITH SUNDAY'S SFC TROUGH
STALLING FROM CENTRAL SD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN PRESENT FOR ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION MON AFT/EVE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED WEST.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AFTER NEXT WEEK MONDAY, WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS CONTINUE WITH FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS LIKELY RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATER PROBABILITIES OF
THIS OCCURRENCE AT KJMS AND KBIS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOMORROW AT ALL TERMINALS BY THE LATE MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MALARKEY
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...MALARKEY
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