239
FXUS63 KBIS 251950
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
238 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE INTO THIS
WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
CURRENTLY A VERY SLIGHT RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
UPSTREAM THERE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH MONTANA. ON
THE POSITIVE VORTICITY SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE, AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH WYOMING. AT THE
SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE IN CANADA.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS BIG LOW IS STARTING TO PUSH DOWN INTO WASHINGTON
STATE.
TONIGHT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA,
LEADING TO RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL. AS THAT BIG LOW DIGS INTO WASHINGTON,
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL THEN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS AIR STRETCHES AND SPINS OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL CREATE BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE
VERY BREEZY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE BEING IN
THE STATE. THE SURFACE FLOW, AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CARRY WARMER
MOIST AIR UP FROM THE GULF FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO TEMPERATURES LEANING MORE TOWARDS NORMAL.
FOR THE SEVERE STORMS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
FRIDAY THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST WYOMING. THERE IS ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE, BUT ABOUT 50 KTS OF SHEAR. SO THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED STORM THAT PRODUCES ONE INCH HAIL. SATURDAY IS THE MAIN
SHOW AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS IN A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK.
ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE WILL BE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND 35 TO 50KTS OF SHEAR (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL). THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE STATE ALSO BRINGS IN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
HELICITY THAT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN
THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT IS STORM MODE. RIGHT AWAY THE
SHEAR VECTOR IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE NORTH SOUTH FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED IN WESTERN ND, BUT INTO THE EVENING IT BECOMES
MORE PARALLEL. THE CAMS REFLECT THIS TOO, SHOWING ONE OR TWO
DISCRETE CELLS THEN A MCS FORMING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
ANOTHER POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR IS THERE LOOKS TO BE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT, DOES THE ATMOSPHERE
RECOVER BY THE AFTERNOON? TIMING OF THE SEVERE STORMS LOOKS IN
BE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
VERY SIMILAR SETUP JUST A FEW COUNTIES TO THE EAST.
LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS, LEADING TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING UP
HERE. NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. SOME COULD BE STRONGER. A BIG STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS
THE BIG WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING THE EVEN WARMER DESERT AIR NORTH. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S BY THE FOURTH OF JULY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. PROB30S
WERE USED FOR TERMINALS ON THE EDGE OF THOSE SHOWERS. SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY BE FOUND WITH THESE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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