598
FXUS63 KBIS 071138
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
105.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST TO WEST
CENTRAL ND AS OF 2 AM MDT. BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS IS
SITUATED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, BUT INSTABILITY IS
GENERALLY WEAK WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOT FAR
SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, BUT TAPERING TO ONLY AROUND 100 J/KG
NORTH OF THE STATE LINE, IN FAR SOUTHWEST ND. WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR, STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A COUPLE OF CAMS DO SHOW MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE
08-10 UTC TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH CAPE TO GET SOME
STRONGER CELLS. WE DID ISSUE A SPS FOR ON CELL IN BOWMAN COUNTY
ALREADY. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY SETTLES DOWN, THINK THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS PRETTY LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOUGH. THINK THE BETTER THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INSTABILITY
GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SD BORDER. A FEW OF THE CAMS DO
SHOW WAVES OF INSTABILITY LIFTING NORTH AROUND MIDDAY TODAY,
BUT CIN MAY BE ENOUGH GIVEN CLOUDY SKIES AND ONGOING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO INHIBIT STRONGER INSTABILITY ALOFT. TONIGHT
INSTABILITY ALOFT DOES LIFT A LITTLE NORTH OF THE BORDER AGAIN.
THE HIGHEST THREAT IN ND LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-94, AND
ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE SD BORDER. BULK SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 30-50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SHEAR VECTORS
MORE PARALLEL TO THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED BOUNDARY NEAR THE
BORDER, IT LOOKS LIKE STORM MODE MAY BE MORE MESSY, LIMITING THE
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL
AND 60 MPH WINDS FOR THE MAIN HAZARDS
WE QUIET DOWN ON WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 25-30 KTS, BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE WILL
PROBABLY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR DOES LOOK TO BE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
NORTH TO SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY. THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPECIFICS FOR
HAZARDS. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ND ON THURSDAY.
AFTER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER A GOOD
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 WILL PRODUCE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NBM ENSEMBLE SPREADS DO BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES FOR
BISMARCK ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXTENT OF TOP END TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE
ALREADY IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR
HOT TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS AND HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, WITH
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, WITH THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES FAVORED FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME.
GENERALLY AN EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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