920
FXUS63 KBIS 120234
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
934 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND RAINY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- A MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COUPLE OF WEBCAMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOW PRECIPITATION
THAT LOOKS A LITTLE STREAKY. WHILE IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE, THIS COULD INDICATE SOME SNOW TRYING TO MIX IN. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES ARE PRESENT, THOUGH ANY RAIN WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA IS PRETTY LIGHT AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER, THE
WILLISTON RADAR SUGGESTS RETURNS ARE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IN
THE NORTHWEST. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT, WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. SOME
OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE BUFKIT RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING IN CROSBY
WHICH ILLUSTRATES MULTIPLE HOURS OF SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY BARELY ABOVE FREEZING. IF THIS
WERE TO PLAY OUT, THERE COUPLE BE A FEW HOURS OF SNOWFALL WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, OVERALL ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF EVEN AN INCH OF SNOW REMAIN VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. THE WAVE THAT BROUGHT LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE REGION IS UP IN CANADA NOW WITH THE WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN
MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FORECAST TO FALL
IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR HALF OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING. A
COLDER AIRMASS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH FREEZING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER LOW THAT IS DIGGING OUT WEST WILL CUTOFF EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SLOWLY PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURE
WILL SLOWLY TREND UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
NORTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
LIKELY BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THE ENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING THIS SYSTEM
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AFTER THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST THE NBM IS FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LONGEST DURATION OF THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAINS IN
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES, IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW
IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THIS COULD IMPACT THE
KXWA TERMINAL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TELKEN
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