877
FXUS63 KBIS 101429
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CDT THU APR 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY, TURNING
COLDER SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT THU APR 10 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW CLOUDS IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM THE YESTERDAY'S LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU APR 10 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LOW TO MID BASED CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS UPDATE, BUT CONTINUE TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THE ODD WEATHER STATION HAS
OCCASIONALLY REPORTED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 3 MILES OR
SO, MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 MPH HAVE
INHIBITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF OF NOTABLE FOG SO FAR. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING, AS IT
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 10 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FOUND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. THE SETTLING OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. BEFORE THAT,
HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING DOWN THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
HOWEVER, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT, WE INSTEAD ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND
LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING EASTWARD BY THE MID
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, TODAY, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BROADLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 19 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER A FEW OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
FRIDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL AXIS SETTLES OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ARE
FORECAST THE LOWER 60S EAST UP TO THE MID 70S WEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING,
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS, AND
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 16 PERCENT ACROSS
WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SOME LIGHT, POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE) OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO SWING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
WITH THIS, A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS IS THUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BE
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BROADLY IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER,
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ROUND IS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE CROSSES OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLE BECOMINGS INCREASING DISCORDANT
THIS POINT, WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALING TWO MAIN SCENARIOS.
SCENARIO 1 IS FAVORED BY THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
(COMBINED MEMBERSHIP OF ~65%), AND IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO. IN
THIS SCENARIO, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES, AND THEN TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY
ROUTE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS PATTERN, QPF WOULD BE MORE LIMITED
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE WETTER AXIS FALLS INTO THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SCENARIO 2 IS A MINORITY CLUSTER
(~25% MEMBERSHIP), AND INSTEAD FAVORS THE RIDGE TO REMAIN OPEN
AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, CLOSING OFF
ONLY AS IT BEINGS TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THIS PATTERN, QPF BECOMES MORE EVENLY DISPERSED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE WET AXIS FALLS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
INSTEAD. THE REMAINING ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP (~10%) FALLS INTO AN
UNDERDISPERSED, GEFS DOMINATED CLUSTER WHICH HAS THE SYSTEM
EVOLVE MUCH MORE SLOWLY, WHICH VASTLY LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF QPF
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ANY
SCENARIO, MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH SOME SNOW WILL MIX IN DURING THE COOLEST HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING. THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SUNDAY AND AND EARLY MONDAY.
CHANCES THEN TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
BEINGS TO EXIT OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH THIS, MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW THEN ANTICIPATED TO RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU APR 10 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. KJMS MAY BE THE EXCEPTION TO THIS,
AS IT LIES IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MVFR CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW,
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, WE HAVE LEFT KJMS AT VFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL INDUCE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND TURN TO BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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