293
FXUS63 KBIS 100539
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- A NOTABLE BUT BRIEF WARM UP THURSDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
CALM WEATHER IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THE TIME OF THIS MID TO LATE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE OPTED TO MAKE
SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, AND TO DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AT THE TIME OF THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
EVENING, BECOMING VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WERE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME, AS IT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY RESULTING IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL DISCUSS THAT IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
IT'S A LITTLE BREEZY IN SOME AREAS, BUT OVERALL A VERY NICE
AFTERNOON IS IN STORE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. COOL AND
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH, IN CENTRAL CANADA, WILL SWING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, WE ARE EXPECTING VERY DRY AND WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA WILL
SEE COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL EXPERIENCE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN MID
60 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, TO THE MID 70S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE HIGH SIMILAR
TO TODAY, IN THE MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT, BUT EVENTUALLY SOME
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE. COMBINED
WITH AN IMPULSE TRACKING THROUGH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY, CURRENTLY THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO
60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH LOW QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS MOST AREAS.
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON
FRIDAY WILL THEN BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME, BUT WE MAY SEE A COUPLE
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CANADA ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL (MAINLY IN THE 60S) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE RAW
WITH LOW 60S AND SOME 50 DEGREE READING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES
STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SURROUND
THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND INCLUDE MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS, AND EVEN AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT, WHILE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
IN THE NEAR CRITICAL AREA SURROUNDING THE RED FLAG WARNING WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 TO 25
PERCENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE NEAR CRITICAL AREAS
COULD BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE
HUMIDITIES WILL END UP LOWER, OR WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT
HIGHER.
AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, EXCEPT MID
40S AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THE HREF INDICATES AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RH
VALUES LESS THAN 20% AND WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
THESE VALUE TAPER PRETTY QUICKLY NORTHWARD TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER, BUT DO REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT EASTWARD TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
IN ADDITION...THE SPC REFS VIEWER SHOWS A SIMILAR AREA. BOTH
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEETING THIS CRITERIA FROM
BILLINGS AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES, SOUTH THROUGH SLOPE AND
BOWMAN COUNTIES, BUT BOTH EXTEND PROBABILITIES ABOVE 50 PERCENT,
EAST OF THE ORIGINAL FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THEREFORE WE DID EXTEND
THE FIRE WEATHER WARNING EAST TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, EXCEPT FOR EASTERN MORTON AND
EASTERN SIOUX COUNTIES.
IT WILL BE A MIXOUT DAY SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE TIMING.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ON FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE
PROPAGATION OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE COULD BE PORTIONS OF THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL (ALONG THE SD BORDER) THAT COULD
SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THEY WILL BE THE
LAST TO COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
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