840
FXUS63 KBIS 150608
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
108 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH STARTING
THURSDAY MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- NOTABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. LATEST FORECAST
COVERS THIS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRESENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I94, THOUGH MAY
MEANDER A BIT FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
ORGANIZED RADAR ECHOES ARE PRESENT MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND ARE GRADUALLY
WORKING FURTHER INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW FAR NORTH SATURATION WILL OCCUR. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS
AND RADAR TRENDS, INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF 20 PERCENT POPS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WE REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN A TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
THE FIRST, A STACKED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE NORTH
AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNS UP AHEAD OF THIS LOW, THERE
ARE SOME CHANCES (10 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, AROUND A FEW HUNDRETHS AT MOST FOR ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SECOND, FOUND TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A STACKED LOW/OPENING TROUGH OVER ALBERTA HAT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO SASKATCHEWAN OVERNIGHT, LOFTING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA THAT'LL BEGIN TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CALM AND
DRY, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS THE LOWER TO MID 30S WEST TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CENTRAL. WITH INCREASING WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, WE WILL OPT TO
HOLD BACK ON ISSUING A FREEZE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
FOR THURSDAY, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CAA
ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN FROM A FAIRLY
WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL JET. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE FOUND ACROSS
THE WEST, AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE CORE OF THE JET
DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING STRONG WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EFI VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE BROADLY AROUND
0.8-0.9, WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST,
WHERE THE CORE OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA STARTING 15Z
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 05Z THURSDAY NIGHT (10 AM CDT / 9 AM
MDT TO 12 AM CDT / 11 PM MDT). OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
OPENING TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. SEASONABLE COOL
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT, LOWS DROPPING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WEST CAN BE
ANTICIPATED, WHICH COULD PROMOTE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONDITION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WARM
AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WEST, WITH FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY BECOMING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE HAS
MODERATELY STRONG AGREEMENT (APPROXIMATELY 85 PERCENT OF
MEMBERS) ON MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE IS SQUASHED
BY A NORTHERN CANADIAN LOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S
FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. A LOW
MEMBERSHIP, UNDERDISPERSED CLUSTER (APPROXIMATELY 15 PERCENT OF
MEMBERS, ALL GEFS) ALSO EXISTS, WHICH INSTEAD ADVERTISES THE
RIDGE SURVIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE 60S AND 70S, AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN CANADIAN LOW REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EITHER SCENARIO THEN CAPTURES A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TOWARD
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED TURN AS A STRONG
PACIFIC LOW MAKES LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND MAKES
IT WAY INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK, THOUGH SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA,
THOUGH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE EXCEPTION
BEING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SOUTH OF KJMS. A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY, WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS, ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ002>005-009-010-012-
013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-
051-055>062.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...JJS
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