903
FXUS63 KBIS 301356
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
856 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
- A FEW AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A LARGER AREA OF FROST MAY COME THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- AN OVERALL MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES MAY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. MAINLY UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN CANADA WILL BRING A WEAK YET MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOK FOR SOME
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS A RESULT. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S WILL BE FOUND IN THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT TODAY, WITH
70S ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. AS MENTIONED THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, YET CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH WILL FULLY PUSH THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR COOLER LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT
AS A RESULT. PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY, WITH
THE COLD FRONT CREATING A STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHWEST. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THESE SHOWERS WOULD
HAVE TO GO THROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, AND LESS BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH MOVES MORE OVER CENTRAL ND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY COULD
STILL REMAINED STALLED IN THE SOUTHWEST, PERHAPS LINGERING LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S. THIS COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD FROST
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OUT OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY,
SWITCHING THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPING SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL ALSO BRING A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS COULD BE FOUND FROM EITHER OF
THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY, YET OVERALL
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE FOUND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
MENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF SATURDAY
THEN LOOKS NEAR SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO BE FOUND FOR SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE
30S COULD RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. THIS HIGH ALSO LOOKS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY FOR SUNDAY, WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ZONAL FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD
BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LOW POPS AT TIMES TO START NEXT
WEEK. THIS WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALSO BRING SOME WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MILDER MORNING LOWS WOULD ALSO BE
FOUND WITH THIS PATTERN. AN INCREASED GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND AT TIMES, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WIND MAY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MALARKEY
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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