689
FXUS63 KBIS 130239
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. A WARMING TREND TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS THEN FAVORED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ON THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES ARE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WHILE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
PREVAILS. THERE DO APPEAR TO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS SUCH
AS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, THESE SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL STRATUS OR FOG FILLS IN THE GAPS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT PARTS OF
THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL, ALTHOUGH MIST OR DRIZZLE PERSISTS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SINCE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO
ERODE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE IS ALREADY
SATURATED/NEAR SATURATION, NBM TEMPERATURES INDICATING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FREEZE SEEMED A BIT TOO COLD. THEREFORE, SUSPECT MOST
OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND VICINITY. WHILE UPDRAFTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO BECOME
OVERLY TALL AND WIDE WITH ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO IN THIS
AREA. THUS, LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BECOME FAIRLY
FREQUENT/WIDESPREAD AND A FEW INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE PULSED UP TO
STRONG LEVELS ON OCCASION. SOME SMALL HAIL (POSSIBLY UP TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS) WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL STORMS MOVE OUT
BY MID-AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD,
ONLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS WE BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT.
HOWEVER, ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH MAY LIMIT HOW COLD WE DIP TONIGHT. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A FEW BELOW FREEZING VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE BIT
AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HEADLINES. AFTER A COOL DAY TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WE MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT TO
SEE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVE RIDGING SETTLES IN WEDNESDAY AS
THE PATTERN FAVORS SPLIT FLOW WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH NBM HIGHS FORECAST TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. CLUSTER ANALYSIS THEN SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW WILL KICK OUT AND
PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAINLY REMAIN EAST,
LEAVING MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ON IT'S HEELS. BEHIND THE FRONT, MODELS
SUGGEST SOME STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LATEST
NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SEE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 40 TO
50 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKE A WINDY DAY WITH A POTENTIAL NEED FOR EVENTUAL HEADLINES.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WE DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE COULD
BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SOUTHWEST AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. NBM GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS A WARMUP INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSISTS
ACROSS THE STATE. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SINK A BIT OVER THE
NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY.
FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT, WHILE
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL. THESE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY, THOUGH EXACTLY HOW
LOW VISIBILITY GOES AT EACH TERMINAL, AND FOR HOW LONG, IS
UNCERTAIN.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page