041
FXUS63 KBIS 042043
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CURRENTLY, WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
REGION AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MID LEVEL WAA AND A
STEADY WESTERLY MIXING WIND HAS RESULTED IN MILD TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
MID/UPPER 30S, ALONG WITH LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT,
TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, THOUGH
DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW WILL TREND 20-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TODAY.
WE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST AND
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVE EJECTS OUT OF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
MOST QPF WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH, SO ONLY EXPECTING A
DUSTING OF SNOW TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
COLD TEMPERATURES AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ARE FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW, WITH THE
COLDEST PERIOD STILL EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW SOUTH TO
NEAR 25 BELOW NORTH. THIS IS ALSO WHEN WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED, AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO.
EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION ALSO EARLY TO MID WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOKING LIKE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING WHEN A MORE DEFINED
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NBM AND
ENSEMBLES BRING A FAIRLY UNIFORM 1-2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW DURING
THIS PERIOD TO MOST LOCATIONS, WITH POCKETS OF 3 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, BUT AT THIS
TIME WILL HOLD OFF AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE HEAVIER SNOW
AMOUNTS NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH QPF LOOKS LIGHTER, WITH PERHAPS AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW TO SOME AREAS.
PATTERN CHANGE IS WELL ADVERTISED LATER IN THE WEEK, BRINGING A
NICE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ONWARDS, AND PERHAPS
SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT BEYOND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW AREAS, IMPROVING BY 21Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KTS
FOR KMOT, KXWA, AND KJMS. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT, LOWERING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND BECOMING LOW VFR TO MVFR
AT WESTERN TAF SITES, KDIK AND KXWA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH
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