475
FXUS63 KBIS 240557
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECTED HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, WITH A
TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.
- SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL MAKE SKIES HAZY AND MAY
REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITY ON FRIDAY.
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105
DEGREES.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
THINGS WORTH MONITORING. LOW CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND
PERHAPS BRING SOME PATCHY FOG. MEANWHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHERN CANADA MAY CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE LATE THIS EVENING. A STRAY
SHOWER COULD CLIP THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE ANTICIPATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE NEAR-SURFACE
SMOKE IS SOUTHERN ALBERTA, WHERE VISIBILITY IS CURRENTLY BEING
REDUCED TO AROUND 2 TO 5 MILES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
LITTLE TO UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, AND IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS OVERALL HAS LIMITED OUR DIURNAL HEATING, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER THE FORECAST HIGH. THIS TREND COULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A THICKER LAYER OF SMOKE
FORECAST TO MOVE IN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER, THE RETURN OF VERY HOT CONDITIONS, AND
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
WEST CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND WAA THAT
COULD FORCE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERALL, ANY STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH MUCH HIGHER INSTABILITY AND AROUND
40 TO 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAINS
POSSIBLE, THOUGH IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE AND WHETHER
OR NOT STORMS CAN EVEN BECOME SURFACE BASED TO BEGIN WITH.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE THREAT OVERALL.
FIRST, PER THE RAP, CIN NEVER FULLY ERODES. THIS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY INHIBIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IT COULD HELP RESULT IN
STORMS BEING MORE ELEVATED, WHICH WOULD INHIBIT THE TORNADO
THREAT FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS MENTIONED. CSU MACHINE LEARNING
TENDS TO BACK THIS SCENARIO WITH NO TORNADO OUTLINE. A SECOND
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS SMOKE. WHILE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS MORE
LIKELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT (MORE SO A WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY), ELEVATED SMOKE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. IF THIS HELPS LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO, IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BEYOND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY, OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY LOW AND MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS (LEADING TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. CURRENTLY, NONE OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS OUTLINED BY SPC SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
CSU MAINTAINS MARGINAL EQUIVALENT RISK PROBS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE EASTERN
CWA CLIPPED SUNDAY BY SPC AS WELL ONCE IT ENTERS "DAY 3"
TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 100S FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA, WHILE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THAT
SAID, HEAT INDICES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES
AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE COMPARED TO LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE STATE (THE SOUTHWEST). THEREFORE,
NOT ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
AND WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FORM OF HEAT HEADLINE WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE. ONE FINAL NOTE IS THAT THESE HOT CONDITIONS,
COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, WILL LEAD TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY BE FOUND TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ND, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THESE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE TAFS, ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD APPROACH THE KBIS AND KJMS AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD BRING FEW TO
SCT CLOUD APPEARANCE ALOFT, WHILE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE
SURFACE ARE ALSO EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE WAS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS AT KBIS AND KJMS. A
BREEZY WESTERLY WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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