599
FXUS63 KBIS 072053
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
253 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
THAT ARE COOLER NORTHEAST TO WARMER SOUTHWEST. A BRIEF
COOLDOWN TO NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS THEN FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO START NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION BEING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATED THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS ANALYZED IN
NORTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN, BUT RAP-BASED SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS
A SECONDARY LOW CROSSING THE MT/ND STATE LINE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW, RADAR RETURNS HAVE BECOME A BIT
STRONGER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 7K FEET. MESOANALYSIS PAGE HIGHLIGHTS
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THIS
AREA, WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT IN
RECENT RUNS WITH AT LEAST A SMALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH IN LINE WITH THE SECONDARY LOW, SO WE DID ADD IN BROAD
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S TO 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, EXPECTING P-TYPES TO
START AS RAIN (OR POTENTIALLY JUST SPRINKLES WITH HOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE), BEFORE WE INTRODUCE A WINTRY MIX IN
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
A MIXED BAG OF WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE BY THE TIME
THE SURFACE LOW ARRIVES, BUT ALL DO SHOW A WARM NOSE THAT WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN / FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE, DEPENDING
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW OVERALL IS LOW,
ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA DID
END UP SWITCHING TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT FROM
THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH, ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH
FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE EVEN ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS ON SURFACES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.
A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WE START TO SEE MORE NOTABLE FORECAST CHANGES, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN TROUGH DIVES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO
THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST NBM
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES, BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE
PATTERN. AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP ON SATURDAY, BREEZY WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST, AND WRAPAROUND,
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
COOL DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ARE TO
THE UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST.
THE COOLDOWN DOES NOT LAST LONG, HOWEVER, AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
FAVOR BROAD RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO START
NEXT WEEK. NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES SHOW RELATIVELY SMALL
SPREAD FOR THIS LEAD TIME AND GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE WE START TO SEE SIGNS OF A COOL DOWN AND POTENTIALLY SOME
SNOW CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS, BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS WAS INCLUDED AT KXWA WITH THIS
UPDATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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