879
FXUS63 KBIS 301928
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
228 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE FOUND THIS
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY NEAR-DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
- MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT RETURNS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SURFACE LOW AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. COVERAGE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SO FAR TODAY, AND THIS
TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STATE IN GENERAL MAY
BE TOO FAR EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
SOUTHWEST. HERE AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SKINNY CAPE AND LOW SHEAR
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR TONIGHT, THUS THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ISOLATED TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE COULD STILL
SEE SHOWERS WITH A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS INCREASED
MOISTURE ALOFT MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE A
LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WIND. IF SHOWERS CLEAR OUT THEN PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SUNDAY, SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE, IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TOMORROW IN
THESE AREAS. SHEAR STILL REMAINS LOWS, ALTHOUGH THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. CAPE PROFILES ALSO LOOK SLIGHTLY
MORE ROBUST. THUS THE MAIN THREATS SUNDAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN SIZE. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 70S AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE.
SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SHIFTING
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S WEST
TO LOWER 50S EAST.
MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN STALLS ON MONDAY. ALONG
THIS STALLED FRONT COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND COULD
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED. CUTOFF LOW IN WEST CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING AN
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE INCREASED
MOISTURE FILTERS IN FROM A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE
RESULT COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CSU-MLP HINTING SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN EACH DAY. THE
RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE PWATS OVER AN INCH AS WELL.
SOME MODELS SHOWING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH NBM
CHANCES FOR OVER AN INCH IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 10 TO 20%. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS LATER IN THE WEEK. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE, WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CSU-MLP ALSO SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
OVERALL LOOK FOR A GENERIC SUMMER PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
START THE MONTH OF JUNE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS COULD BRING WIDESPREAD LOW VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS, MOST SITES
HAVE PROB30 MENTION IN TAFS. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT MOST SITES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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