532
FXUS63 KBIS 061917
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
217 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS TO
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THEN
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN COOLER BUT STILL
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING SOME WINDY CONDITIONS OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND BE AROUND 10
TO 20 PERCENT OUT WEST WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70-80S. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A WIND SHIFT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND, HOWEVER WE WILL
BE ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
HINDER ANY EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
KEEPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BAY. ALTHOUGH SUNDAY
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE IN THE 80S THIS WEEKEND WITH THE SOUTHWEST
TOUCHING THE 90S BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO QUASI ZONAL WHICH COULD BRING FORTH SOME LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALSO
CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING FORTH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. IN
ADDITION THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME FU BACK INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. A FRONT
CONTINUES DIVE DOWN FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL
OVERLAP WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT
OUT WEST. MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO
BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE RECOVERING, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE VERY DRY
AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS WILL GIVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST DURING
THAT WINDOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON
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