840  
FXUS63 KBIS 071229  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
729 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM EMMONS TO DICKEY COUNTY, HOWEVER THE FOG  
LAYER IS SHALLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISPATE IN THE NEXT  
HOUR. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA  
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND  
FREQUENT LIGNTING. OTHER THEN ADDING FOG TO THE GRIDS, NO OTHER  
CHANGES WERE MADE.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST, MAINLY OVER DIVIDE  
COUNTY. THIS SECOND AREA IS BARELY MOVING, SO SOME HIGHER RAINFALL  
TOTALS MAY BE SEEN HERE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. MRMS FLASH  
CREST UNIT STREAMFLOW IS STARTING TO HIGHLIGHT THE CENTRAL PART OF  
DIVIDE COUNTY FOR SOME HIGHER RATES, SO WE WILL CONTINUE  
MONITORING THIS AREA FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD STORMS  
CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND. FOR THIS UPDATE, INCREASED PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES OVER THESE TWO AREAS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR RADAR  
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, JUST BLENDED THE LATEST  
OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN  
AGAIN TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MAKING  
ITS WAY THROUGH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONTANA/NORTH  
DAKOTA BORDER. THIS HAS PROMPTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN  
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST  
AND NORTH. THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY RESIDE ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT OVER  
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, 07Z SPC  
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME POCKETS OF MUCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG  
ARE PRESENT. HOWEVER, SHEAR REMAINS WEAK WITH 0-6 KM VALUES ONLY  
TOPPING OUT AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THUS, CONVECTION THIS MORNING  
SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR, BRIEFLY PULSING UP WITH SOME SMALL  
HAIL FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH AS  
THE STRONGER CORES COLLAPSE. STORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN  
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, BUT MOST CAMS WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME OF THIS  
ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST.  
 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REJUVENATION OF  
CONVECTION ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT, MAINLY ALONG AND  
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO AROUND GLEN ULLIN. THE  
BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE INSTABILITY  
GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONT. HERE, MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000  
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THIS COULD  
LEAD TO SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE MULTICELL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL  
STRUCTURES. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL TO THE  
SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. UNCERTAINTY  
STILL REMAINS ABOUT WHETHER THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOO  
QUICKLY, AND IF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S EARLIER WAVE, RIDGING WILL POP BACK UP  
ACROSS THE WEST AND WE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK IN  
ACTIVITY. THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE THEN APPROACHES THE WEST LATE  
TONIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE SHOW STORMS PROPAGATING IN FROM MONTANA BY  
AROUND 06Z FRIDAY OR SO, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SAME  
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVEN  
MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THIS WAVE AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER  
MARGINAL, BUT SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE  
IF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE  
INTO THE AREA.  
 
TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE COOLER NORTH AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS  
FORECAST TO STREAM DOWN FROM CANADA (MAINLY IN THE 70S). WARMER  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE THERE SHOULD  
BE FEWER CLOUDS (LOW TO MID 80S). TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL RANGE FROM  
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST  
PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TRENDING TOWARDS  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  
 
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE  
THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY  
WEAKEN, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT  
ONLY A COUPLE OF CAMS ARE CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING CONVECTION IN OUR  
AREA WITH THIS WAVE. THE ROBUST PRECIPITATION SIGNALS IN THE  
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS VERY LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE  
FEEDBACK ISSUES. STILL, IF STORMS CAN FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE  
CENTRAL, DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER (35 TO 40 KNOTS) AND  
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR  
TWO. LIKE CLOCKWORK, THE NEXT WAVE THEN COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT  
WITH MORE CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.  
 
BROAD RIDGING AND STRONG CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MOST OF SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON DRY. A STRONGER WAVE WILL THEN EJECT FROM A BROAD  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE EVENING,  
APPROACHING OUR WEST FROM MONTANA. IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY FOR  
SPECIFICS, BUT THE PARAMETER SPACE COULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY  
STRONG SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
DISCRETE STORMS WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON IF A COUPLE OF WARM  
SECTOR CELLS CAN DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING. A  
MORE LINEAR STORM MODE IS FAVORED AT NIGHT WITH AN MCS LIKELY  
APPROACHING FROM MONTANA.  
 
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE  
SLIDES IN ON MONDAY WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE POPPING BACK UP  
TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE PATTERN  
INTO MIDWEEK.  
 
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WHEN HIGHS  
WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN  
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OR  
TONIGHT, WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND WIND GUSTS  
TO 60 MPH AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT  
WITH STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY STILL SEE  
SOME LOWER SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME POSSIBLE  
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS. MORE MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE INTO THE  
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, ALONG WITH MORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF  
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY OF THE HEAVIER  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JOHNSON  
SHORT TERM...ZH  
LONG TERM...ZH  
AVIATION...ZH  
 
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