519
FXUS63 KBIS 050959
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
COLDER NORTHEAST AND WARMER SOUTHWEST. WE BRIEFLY WILL TREND
COLDER TO END THE WEEK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THIS COMING WORK WEEK, WITH A LOW CHANCE
(10 TO 20 PERCENT) OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO END THE WORK WEEK ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND
ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS. LOW STRATUS AND FOG REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER AREA. DENSE FOG
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD, AND NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS
PRODUCT ISSUANCE. MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP FOG OVER CENTRAL
ND, BUT THUS FAR WE REMAIN FOG FREE HERE OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL. WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FOG WILL LINGER EAST, LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CURRENT HEADLINES GO TILL 18Z (NOON CST), AND WILL BE
REEVALUATED CLOSER TO THAT TIME.
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW TODAY ALONG WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY, TRANSITIONING WINDS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING
SOME CAA ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND
QUIET WEATHER. FOG LOOKS TO PERSIST AND/OR REDEVELOP FOR
TONIGHT. WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH REGION
IN FLOW ALOFT, AND MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH CAMS, WITH
NBM DRY. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN FOR TONIGHT, AND STICK WITH
THE DRY NBM FOR NOW ON TUESDAY THOUGH SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE
JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH TUE MORNING DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY, THEN
TRENDING COOLER FOR THURSDAY AS A STRONG S/WV PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NBM IS MAINLY DRY, THOUGH ANY
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ALOFT COULD GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK, LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POPS
WITH THIS PATTERN FOR OUR AREA, THOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. MODELS DO FAVOR ANOTHER COLD
FROPA, WHICH WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DEAMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A BIT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS IS HIGH AT KMOT, BUT
LOWER FROM KXWA TO KBIS.
THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE FORECAST TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO AT
LEAST MVFR LEVELS FROM KMOT TO KJMS IS HIGH, BUT IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER KJMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND MAY BARELY
CLEAR KMOT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING
KMOT AND KJMS, ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO FALL UNDER LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MONDAY EVENING.
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN WESTERLY NEAR 10 KTS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
023-025-037-048.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...MH/NH
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