304
FXUS63 KBIS 191906
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
206 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY, HUMID, AND COOL TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, BEFORE TAPERING SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SURFACE LOW REMAINS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING TOWARDS ONTARIO. THIS CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR
TO WIN OUT OVER MOST OF THE STATE, EXCEPT PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN LITTLE OVERALL PRECIPITATION. LIGHT
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
WHICH, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS LIKELY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST, BUT PROBABILITIES RAPIDLY DROP OFF FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST. NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER, PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN
A TENTH OF AN INCH DROP DOWN TO AROUND 50 PERCENT, AND RAPIDLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE RIVER.
DESPITE THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE,
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THOUGH BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT, SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS THICK SKY COVER
WILL LIKELY MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST LOWS REMAINING
WARMER THAN THE NBM PRODUCES, AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN
FORECAST... MORE SO FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO START THE NEXT WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN FAVORED TO
BRING HIGHS INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOW 80S DEGREE READINGS IN
WESTERN ND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST, BUT LOWERING CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT. VFR VISIBILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH. NORTHERN VISIBILITY SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWESTERN AND
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL, MOST ACCUMULATING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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