870
FXUS63 KBIS 272322
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY, AND NEAR-CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY (HIGHS IN THE 90S).
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AT THE TIME OF THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. WINDY CONDITIONS
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS THE FAR WEST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED, AS IT REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
SITS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT HAS SLIDE SLIGHTLY EAST FROM
YESTERDAY. AT THE SURFACE YESTERDAY'S STATIONARY FRONT LAYS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, HENCE THE RED FLAG WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH STICKING AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS
PATTERN OF HOT, DRY, AND VERY WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SAME FAR WESTERN ND COUNTIES AS TODAY. ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN,
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEARING 100 DEGREES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR WEST. A
SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST SLIGHTLY. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA WILL START IT'S JOURNEY
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LEADING TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFOR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, POSSIBLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S, BUT ALSO VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AFTER THIS WEEKEND THAT LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST, CONTINUING OUR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DAILY RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT,
WHILE BECOMING LIGHT AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, BECOMING STRONG AROUND 25 TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ACROSS THE FAR WEST. A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAY INDUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHWEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTIONS AT KXWA AT THIS TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043.
UPDATE...ADAM/SMITH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...ADAM
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