316
FXUS63 KBIS 211746
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST TODAY,
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS OVERALL LOW TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP FAVORED FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY, LIGHTNING HASN'T BEEN
OBSERVED IN EASTERN MONTANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE TO SOME DEGREE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL IN
ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 844 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THOUGH OVERALL
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIGHT SO FAR. OTHERWISE, RADAR ECHOES IN
EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD. THE
EASTERN POP EXTENT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH END THIS MORNING,
BUT WILL LEAVE AS-IS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SD
IS BRINING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MT AND SD. MEANWHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM A
SECOND LOW IN SOUTHER CANADA. THESE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
AND MAY IMPACT WESTERN ND LATER THIS MORNING OR MORE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED AND COOLER
WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IN NORTHWESTERN SD HAS RETURNED SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COULD LINGER
ACROSS THESE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN
DIMINISH ONCE THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SD. INFLUENCE
FROM THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD THEN TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL SET UP WITH THIS SECOND LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA,
WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR. RIGHT NOW IT DOES APPEAR THIS
INSTABILITY DOES NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO WESTERN ND, THUS THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING COOLER HIGHS TODAY, WITH 60S
WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST. A BREEZY AT TIMES SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH TODAY. TONIGHT, THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 50 DEGREES. MONDAY, BROAD UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE REGION, CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY SET UP
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. A FAVORABLE JET LOCATION COULD ALSO HELP INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED
GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
MODEST TO HIGH SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN LOW DCAPE.
PWATS OVER AN INCH WOULD INDICATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH THIS WEAK WARM FRONT COULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
BROAD UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LINGERING MODEST TO HIGH SHEAR COULD ONCE
AGAIN BRING AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE IN EASTERN
ND WHERE SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A MIX OF WEAK RIDGING AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE GENERALLY FORECAST. THIS BRINGS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT LEAST INITIALLY, WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASED
CHANCES LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO ON A SLOW
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TIMING OF THE NEXT BROAD TROUGH COULD IMPACT WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST HAS INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMALS TO START THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MAY COOL SLIGHTLY ONCE
THE MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SPC CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE
ANY SEVERE OUTLOOKS IN ND FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 8 ALTHOUGH MAKES
NOTE IN THE TEXT DISCUSSION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RETURNING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE MENTIONED RETURN TO
TROUGH PATTERN. CSU-MLP IS ALSO PICKING UP ON SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TIMING OF THIS
TROUGH WILL GREATLY DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL BE WORTH MONITORING GOING
FORWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT RAIN
NOW OBSERVED AT KXWA AND THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATING LIGHT RAIN
COULD BEGIN AT KDIK ANY MOMENT NOW. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS IN EASTERN
MONTANA, AND COULD IMPACT WESTERN ND AS WELL. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT
PERSIST IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT, POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KMOT AS WELL. EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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