393  
FXUS63 KBIS 130520  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1220 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. WAVES OF LIGHT SNOW  
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA  
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST ROTATES WESTWARD EARLY  
THIS MORNING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE ENHANCED SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE  
(GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ND) AS FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER-LEVEL  
ASCENT INCREASE.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH THAT WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY  
EXPIRE WITHIN THE NEXT 15-20 MINUTES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, WITH LATEST SFC  
OBS STILL SHOWING GUSTS FOR THESE AREAS TO AROUND 40 MPH. BUFKIT  
SOUNDING ANALYSIS DOES INDEED SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-35 KNOTS  
OF WIND TO MIX THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. REST OF THE WIND ADV WILL BE  
ABSORBED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADV AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE  
MENTIONED THERE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS IN  
GOOD SHAPE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES ELONGATED LOW FROM NORTHERN  
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGH OVER NORTHERN  
SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA  
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL  
ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH SECONDARY LOW OFF  
TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE ERIE. A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES  
TO WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM, BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MELTING HAS  
OCCURRED, THOUGH A LITTLE SNOW HAS STUCK ON SOME ROADS OVER THE  
FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, UPPER LOW AND  
AFFILIATE SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA,  
WHILE SECONDARY UPPER LOW SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT PERIODS  
OF LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE TRICK CONTINUES TO BE  
MELTING AND HOW THE ROADS REACT. WITH SOME SLUSH REMAINING ON SOME  
ROADS IN THE NORTH, COMBINED WITH LATEST ROAD TEMPERATURE  
FORECASTS SHOWING ROAD SURFACES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT  
WET SLUSHY ROADS TO FREEZE UP AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO  
DEVELOP. WITH THIS, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200.  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS REMAINS QUITE TRICKY, BUT POTENTIAL  
IMPACTS FROM THIS WERE ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN  
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
ON TUESDAY, LOW STARTS TO GRADUALLY MEANDER EAST. THIS WILL BRING  
ANOTHER WINDY DAY, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING, ESPECIALLY  
OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS WE APPROACH EVENING, SNOW SHOULD BE  
TAPERING OFF, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES LINGERING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH  
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ARE THE  
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY PUSH FURTHER  
OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT  
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING TO PARTS OF THE AREA. A DEEP H500  
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A  
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EASTERLY  
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING  
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF  
THIS SURFACE LOW AND ITS PROXIMITY TO NORTH DAKOTA WILL DETERMINE  
HOW HIGH AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME, BUT FOR NOW AT  
LEAST SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND  
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.  
 
THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH  
CLEARING SKIES, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED H500 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE  
WESTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE 60S AGAIN  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021  
 
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY AND  
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER  
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BRING PERIODS OF SNOW.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING  
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...AJ  
SHORT TERM...JJS  
LONG TERM...GALE  
AVIATION...AJ  
 
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