986  
FXUS63 KBIS 191712  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1212 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WERE COMMON  
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY AND  
COOL DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OUTSIDE OF OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11  
UTC.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
A WINDY FRIDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.  
 
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS OF 08 UTC, AND  
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH  
DAKOTA HAVE ACTUALLY MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S  
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WHERE GRADIENT WINDS ARE STRONGEST, WITH GUSTS  
OF 25-30KTS WEST. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.  
 
THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITE, AND THE CAMS THROUGH THE 06 UTC HRRR  
SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE  
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
DRY WEATHER, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  
 
THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITE FAVORS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE  
CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS,  
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S FROM THE  
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAK MIXING,  
TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
 
THEREAFTER, SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORED EARLY TO MID NEXT  
WEEK, SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS  
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...AJ  
SHORT TERM...PA  
LONG TERM...PA  
AVIATION...AJ  
 
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