715
FXUS63 KBIS 192018
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
218 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
OF NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY BURNING OFF, AND COULD RETURN
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S TO 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 40S TO
50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE NO STRONG WAVES FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. FORECAST MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A POTENTIAL SYSTEM
LATER NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN A COLDER AIR LEADING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A COLDER
AIRMASS MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG. AS FOR PRECIPITATION THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, THE ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT ON A
CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINING NORTH IN CANADA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
THERE ARE SOME LINGERING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE NORTHWEST
THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. KXWA IS IMPACTED FROM THIS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOWERING THIS EVENING. SOME TERMINALS COULD SEE INTERMENT MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUD BASES WIDELY VARY ACROSS THE STATE.
THERE ARE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA NOT FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE TAF TERMINALS. LOWERING CEILINGS WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING HAPPENING
WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY
TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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