182
FXUS63 KBIS 051113
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
503 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG TODAY WITH DENSE FOG AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
- LARGE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER TO THE ND/SD BORDER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE RAIN
MIXED IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER MODEST WARMUP WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND,
THEN A COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
WIDESPREAD ADVECTION FOG IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
OVERALL, MOST OBSERVATIONS REMAIN IN EXCESS OF A MILE, HOWEVER,
THERE ARE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED AS WELL.
THEREFORE, INTEND ON MAINTAINING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS-IS
FOR NOW, WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST/9 AM MST.
WHILE FOG MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE.
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AS AN ASIDE, SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND MAY OCCUR SO LONG AS
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS PRESENT.
OTHERWISE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY IS REALLY MORE STATIONARY IN
NATURE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY
DOES SEEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED IN PREVIOUS DAYS. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRANSITING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY MAY PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH, PERHAPS WITH A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TILT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. STILL,
WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG, NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEMED A
LITTLE HIGH TODAY FOR THE I94 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. THEREFORE,
WENT WITH AN NBM 10/25 BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS FROM THE LOW
20S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE I94
CORRIDOR, AND THE LOW 50S ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MAY POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY, THIS FAVORS LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
THEN LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST ON FRIDAY, THOUGH
SOME RAIN OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL IN ALL, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH AROUND A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW FOR EITHER TIME PERIOD.
BEYOND FRIDAY, EXPECT THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE, EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST, ON SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND AND MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES UNDER THIS LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS. THOUGH FOG MAY LINGER, VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN IFR/LIFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING,
THOUGH WESTERN ND MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN ND TONIGHT, WHILE A MIX OF RAIN,
FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, LATE TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ022-023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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