702  
FXUS63 KBIS 251145  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
645 AM CDT THU JUL 25 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND MUCH  
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH  
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEST WILL COOL SOME ON FRIDAY, BUT HOT  
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHWEST  
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.  
 
- PERIODIC LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%)  
RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- SMOKY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME NEAR-  
SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU JUL 25 2024  
 
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HAZARDS. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATED TO SKY  
COVER WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND LOW  
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND. ALSO ADDED A  
BROAD BRUSH OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 14  
UTC. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT THU JUL 25 2024  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS, AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL  
RESULT IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL  
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. YESTERDAY WE HAD TEMPERATURES AROUND 105  
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TODAY AS THE  
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST, THE THERMAL RIDGE AND MAXIMUM LOW-MID  
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER WESTERN ND. IT'S  
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER TODAY IN THE FAR  
WEST WITH READINGS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH UPON THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. IF THERE WERE ANY  
LIMITS TO HEATING DUE TO SMOKE YESTERDAY, THE SMOKE  
CONCENTRATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS THAN  
YESTERDAY. WITH THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND MAX 850MB  
TEMPS RIGHT OVER THIS AREA, WE NUDGED TEMPS UP JUST A BIT OVER  
THE FAR WEST, UTILIZING A BLEND WITH NBM75TH PERCENTILE MAXT.  
THIS GIVES US TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  
ELSEWHERE, WE KEPT THE GIVEN NBM TEMPERATURES.  
 
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST OF WESTERN ND WILL BE NOTICEABLY  
WARMER TODAY. AT MINOT AND BISMARCK, WHERE WE HAD HIGHS AROUND  
90 YESTERDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS NEAR 100 TODAY. THE JAMES  
RIVER VALLEY, WHICH HAD HIGHS AROUND 80 YESTERDAY, CAN EXPECT  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY. EVEN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN  
VICINITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  
REGARDING THE HEAT ADVISORY, SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES  
TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH  
MORE PREVALENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND, APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 90S, AND ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACH  
AND/OR TOUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF WE OVERPERFORM ON  
TEMPERATURES AND/OR DEWPOINTS IT'S POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO  
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY FARTHER EAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT  
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. WILL PASS THIS ALONG FOR THE DAY SHIFT  
TO MONITOR.  
 
THE FAR WEST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER WITH LOW AFTERNOON  
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 10 PERCENT, RESULTING IN SOME FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL  
INFORMATION.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA.  
THIS WILL BRING MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS TO CENTRAL ND AND COULD  
RESULT IN SOME RECORD HIGH DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT  
BISMARCK AND MINOT. THE WEST COULD SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH BASES AOA 12KFT, THE  
PROBABILITY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER SEEMS LOW.  
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE FAR WEST CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.  
PERHAPS WE'LL SEE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION  
THAT DOES REACH WESTERN ND.  
 
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED FROM  
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL ND. FRIDAY AFTERNOON BY  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO  
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL ND  
FRIDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE FAR  
WEST WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. AS THE COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE COULD SEE  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
AT THIS TIME THE RED RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO BE FAVORED FOR A  
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS PLACED A  
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK HERE, WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND. IF THE COLD FRONT HAPPENS TO SLOW IT'S  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION, IT'S POSSIBLE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL GETS  
PULLED FARTHER WEST, TO INCLUDE THE JRV. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW  
THIS PLAYS OUT. FARTHER WEST, CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL  
TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS COULD APPROACH WESTERN ND FRIDAY  
EVENING, BUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO SOMETHING TO  
TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD. FOR NOW THOUGH, WE HAVE ONLY A GENERAL  
THUNDERSTORM RISK OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND ON FRIDAY.  
 
PERIODIC ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER  
BRITISH COLUMBIA TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN  
PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A QUASI-ZONAL  
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE  
OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW WITH A FAIRLY BROAD SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL  
UPPER FLOW THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, AT OR ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR LATE  
JULY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE POKING INTO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH VERY HOT  
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING WESTERN ND. THIS IS  
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU JUL 25 2024  
 
LLWS TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT KXWA. LLWS EXPECTED TOWARDS  
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.  
 
LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND. AT THIS  
TIME THE STRATUS REMAINS BETWEEN KBIS AND KJMS AND WE ADDED A  
SCATTERED LIFR LAYER AT 500 FT AT KBIS AND KJMS. IT'S POSSIBLE  
THESE SITED COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING.  
OTHERWISE PATCHY SMOKE AND FOG IS SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA AND KMOT HAS A MVFR VISIBILITY TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.  
EXPECT THE PATCHY FOG AND SMOKE TO IMPROVE BY AROUND 14 UTC.  
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE STRATUS DISSIPATING AROUND 15 UTC.  
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED. BREEZY SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. LLWS WILL DEVELOP  
AGAIN THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH AND WINDS ALOFT  
INCREASE. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA, BUT  
DID INCLUDE A VCSH AT KXWA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD (09-12Z).  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT THU JUL 25 2024  
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA  
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 110 DEGREES,  
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. IN  
ADDITION, SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35  
MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUING INTO THIS  
EVENING. ONE HOUR FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST DUE TO A LACK OF RAINFALL, ALLOWING FUELS TO BE  
PRIMED. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR RESULTING IN A  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 50 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY  
THIS MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO DELAYED RESPONSE FOR FUELS,  
BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DRY FUELS OUT BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF  
FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER  
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE RED FLAG WARNING.  
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEARLY AS LOW AND WINDS JUST AS STRONG.  
HOWEVER, THE ONE HOUR FUELS HERE ARE SLOWER TO CURE, THUS RATES  
OF SPREAD ARE NOT AS HIGH COMPARED TO THE RFW AREA.  
 
ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD  
FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD LEAD TO GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD  
TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL ON FRIDAY, THE COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER  
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER,  
HIGHER HUMIDITIES HERE WILL ALSO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  
LOW.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR  
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.  
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM  
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-034-  
035-042-045-046.  
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS  
EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-043.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TWH  
DISCUSSION...TWH  
AVIATION...TWH  
FIRE WEATHER...TWH  
 
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