673
FXUS63 KBIS 291936
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
236 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HALLOWEEN.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST IN THE LOWER 50S WHILE THE EAST WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
OUT WEST WHICH COULD PROMOTE INITIAL ATTACK FIRES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 30
PERCENT AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE CAMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RAIN WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS WITH AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE HEIGHTS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION INCLUDING A RAIN SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW FRIDAY
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY COULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THE RIDGE
COULD QUICKLY WASH OUT FROM QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO RETURN
SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH JET STREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA COULD MIX
STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY
DAY. THE NBM HAS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX FOR WINDS AS THERE IS NO CLEAR SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW. BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BY
SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW. A SYSTEM COULD BRING A LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SITE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS KMOT. THERE COULD ALSO BE TEMPORARY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AND LOWERED CEILINGS FROM PRECIPITATION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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