922  
FXUS63 KBIS 191601  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1101 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
THIS UPDATE WAS TO DEAL WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL REMAINING IN AND  
AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY, WHILE ALLOWING THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE IN  
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.  
 
THUS, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT FOR  
FOSTER, KIDDER, STUTSMAN, LOGAN, LAMOURE, MCINTOSH AND DICKEY  
COUNTIES.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HAD  
THOUGHT THAT LIGHT/DENSE FOG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY  
WOULD HAVE ENDED WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF SUN, BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS  
TAKING A BIT MORE TIME THAN I THOUGHT. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WILL RE-EVALUATE IN  
ANOTHER HOUR FOR KEEPING THE ADVISORY GOING OR POSSIBLY EXTENDING  
PORTIONS OF IT.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DENSE FOG IS STILL BEING OBSERVED EAST  
OF HIGHWAY 83. BLENDED IN OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT-TERM TRENDS FOR  
THIS UPDATE.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW THAT DENSE FOG HAS BECOME  
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT IS IN EFFECT  
UNTIL 11 AM CDT FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE  
WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES  
AND FLURRIES EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, WHICH HAVE NOW EXITED NORTH  
DAKOTA TO THE SOUTH. STARTING TO SEE FOG DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST INTO  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AS HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATED BY HIGH-  
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE MODELS INSIST THAT THE FOG WILL  
SPREAD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY  
SUNRISE. HOWEVER, THE FOG APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE CENTER OF A  
WEAK, SURFACE MESO-LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR LANGDON. STILL WOULD  
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG SPREAD SOUTH AND WESTWARD, BUT IT MAY  
ONLY BE PATCHY IN NATURE.  
 
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY NOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER  
30S. AN 850 MB FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LIKELY  
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  
 
SOME MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THINK  
THAT SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS LOOK TOO STRONG FOR THIS TO OCCUR.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO  
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, GIVING US A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH  
DAKOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,  
WITH 50S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL BE VERY  
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WE  
EXPECT TO BEGIN TO SEE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WATER  
FROM THE MELT BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE SYSTEM.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO  
THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE RUN-TO-RUN  
CONSISTENCY WITHIN EACH MODEL, BUT THERE IS A LACK OF CONSENSUS ON  
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER  
NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC WITH THIS SYSTEM, GIVING WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA A RAINY WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT SNOW DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN  
NORTH DAKOTA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE THEN HINTING AT  
ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF ND UNTIL  
16Z. THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT LOOKS TO BE MAJORLY IMPACTED IS KJMS,  
WHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER  
WEST, EXPECT KDIK TO REMAIN AT LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. KBIS IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF FOG/LOW  
STRATUS, SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO THROUGH 15Z. ONCE THE FOG AND LOW  
STRATUS LIFT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.  
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH  
A FEW +20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.  
 
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR  
MAY BECOME A CONCERN. EXPECT A 2 KFT WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY  
AT 35-40 KTS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS.  
LOW STRATUS MAY RETURN TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND BY THE END  
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-  
022-023-035-046.  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-036-  
037-047-048-050-051.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JV  
SHORT TERM...HOLLAN  
LONG TERM...HOLLAN  
AVIATION...HOLLAN  
 
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