097
FXUS63 KBIS 041419
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
919 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- BREEZY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY FOR
SOME AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THAT SHOULD DRIFT EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
AREAS ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH THESE
REPORTS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE HIGHLIGHT AT THIS
TIME. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY, ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SOME
LOW RH VALUES MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, ALTHOUGH LIGHT
WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY LIMITING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND IT. THIS COULD CONTINUE MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS, WHILE KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE
40S. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES THROUGH FOR MONDAY LIFTING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
WARM FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
PERHAPS LOW TO MID 80S. ECMWF EFI VALUES FOR MAXT ALSO STARTING
TO PICK UP ON THIS ABOVE NORMAL TREND ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS WARM AND DRY AIR, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST, AND 40S EAST.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS. THE MENTIONED DRY
FRONT COULD BRING A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND TO WESTERN PORTIONS.
THIS SHIFT OF WIND COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES COULD BRING SOME
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE WEST, AND PERHAPS SOME
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MOST
AREAS WILL THEN SEE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT,
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD LINGER, MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE ALSO EXPECTED. DEPENDING
ON WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES, SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO PERHAPS ISOLATED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COOLER LOWS COULD THEN
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S.
MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. TEMPERATURE SPREADS BEGIN TO GROW EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND AS TIMING OF WHEN/IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN REMAINS AN
AREA OF UNCERTAINTY. SOME CLUSTERS TRY TO PUSH THE NEXT LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE OTHERS KEEP A
BLOCKING RIDGE. THE NBM TEMPERATURES TRENDS OVERALL START TO
COOL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INDICATING PERHAPS THIS NEXT TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THIS TROUGH PATTERN COULD ALSO BE SOME BREEZY WINDS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. IF THE TROUGH PATTERN DOES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO RETURN. CURRENT
FORECAST DOES BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY, WHILE WESTERN AREAS SEE A SOUTH WIND
DEVELOP. A STEADY SOUTH WIND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES
TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page