424
FXUS63 KBIS 281008
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES.
- SNOW DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING LATER SATURDAY MORNING. GREATEST SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THIS COMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
CURRENTLY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/WV TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION ALONG WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA. RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
CONTRIBUTING TO ANOTHER MORNING OF AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT SFC
WINDS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAM IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW
OVERALL DECENT VISIBILITY, THUS NO PLANS FOR ANY ELEVATED
MESSAGING REGARDING THE FOG AT THIS TIME. BOWMAN RADAR ALSO
SHOWING THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW APPROACHING MY SOUTHWEST.
FOR TODAY, AFOREMENTIONED S/WV CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
ROCKIES TODAY, THEN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL/700MB CLOSED LOW, NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA,
DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, COUPLED WITH A BROAD ISENTROPIC/UPGLIDE FLOW
REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. INITIALLY EXPECT A BAND OF
ENHANCED SNOW DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND THEREAFTER AS THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING OF DIV Q FORCING COINCIDING WITH A
BAND OF FRONTOGENSIS ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BROADER
MID LEVEL FORCING/OVERRUNNING FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB LOW AND THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL
BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN A MODEST DGZ, WITH SNOW RATIOS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 15:1 AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 20:1 BY THIS EVENING.
THUS, DESPITE LIMITED LIQUID AND LOW LEVEL FORCING, WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WITH THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, ALONG WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SD BORDER, WILL KEEP THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS AT THIS TIME.
LARGE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER HUDSON BAY TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND, AND WILL PUSH A SAMPLE OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. COLDEST PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS SAT NIGHT
AND SUN NIGHT WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
THEREAFTER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE, WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK, EACH
BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM SNOW CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE
STATE, ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THERE. KJMS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME
VISIBILITY IMPACTS AS PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE
MADE FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS IF IT DEVELOPS NEAR ANY TERMINAL. A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS AND
VISIBILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD UP TO 15 KNOTS (MAY SEE A BIT HIGHER WINDS TO 20
KNOTS AT KDIK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY).
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ017>020-034-046-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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