446
FXUS63 KBIS 051137
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO AROUND
GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS OF THEM ON TUESDAY.
- A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL RESUME BY LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A FEW SHOWERS -- AND MOST RECENTLY, SOME NON-SEVERE STORMS WITH
A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES -- HAVE INDEED EMERGED
IN NORTHEAST MT AND NORTHWESTERN ND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS HIGH-BASED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES, BUT MEAGER BOUYANCY. THE FORECAST WAS NONETHELESS
UPDATED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY HOT TEMPERATURES, IN THE
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL ND.
EARLY THIS MORNING, LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MT AND WY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOWER 60S F IN CENTRAL ND ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR. THUS FAR, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TO SIGNAL FOG DESPITE
SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL NONETHELESS BE ONE
MINOR THING TO WATCH THROUGH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, THE LEADING
PORTION OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND MODEST MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MT AS OF 08Z. A SUBSET OF RECENT CAMS
SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD ACCOMPANY THIS PROGRESSION INTO
NORTHWEST ND THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THAT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, A SIGNIFICANT LOW- AND MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN ND AS THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS BECOME MORE PROMINENT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH CONCURRENTLY
SHIFTS INTO WESTERN ND. GUIDANCE STRONGLY AGREES THE THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE
ORDER OF 25 TO 29 C ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ND. EVEN
FURTHER EAST, THE AIR MASS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHS TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S F ACROSS MOST ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL.
WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL ND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STEEP
LOW- AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT, PARTICULARLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS IN WESTERN ND
BY AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW IN SOUTHWESTERN ND, SO
IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS THERE WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 50 F DURING PEAK HEATING. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE A BIT MORE CAPPED AND WHERE SURFACE
FLOW WILL HAVE A MORE SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER IF NOT MIDDLE 60S F FROM
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ND. THE RESULT WILL BE MLCAPE RANGING
FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG IN SOUTHWEST ND, TO 1500-2500 J/KG IN
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
EXPECT SUPERCELL-FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES TO BE IN PLACE WITH
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE-LAYER BULK
SHEAR, HIGHEST IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND.
OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S F ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE INHIBITION,
WITH INITIATION FAVORED ALONG THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT/TROUGH IN
WESTERN ND INITIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE UNDERSTANDABLY
DISPERSIVE IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THEIR SIMULATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL STILL BE
UPSTREAM DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS IS
SUPPORTIVE OF BROAD, LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND BEGINNING AROUND 21Z AND SPREADING
EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EVENING. HAVING
SAID THAT, IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT INITIAL HIGH-BASED STORMS COULD
FORM NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE TROUGH
OVERLAP IN WEST CENTRAL ND, AND BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CAPE-SHEAR SETTING, ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. THE MOST FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND. NOTE THAT
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING, LOW-LEVEL
SRH WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE 01-03Z TIMEFRAME, BUT THE
TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO BE MINIMIZED DUE TO 1) THE HIGH-
BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS (WITH ML LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 2000 M
AGL) AND 2) AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AROUND THE
SAME TIME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND MLCIN INCREASES.
WE DO NEED TO STRESS THAT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE, INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED HAZARD
POTENTIAL. THERE IS EVEN A POTENTIAL LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO
WHERE STORMS LARGELY FAIL TO DEVELOP OR BECOME SUSTAINED DUE TO
THE WEAK FORCING AND RESIDUAL CAPPING ALOFT.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THAT POTENTIAL
AFTER SUNSET COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BOUYANCY, AND
RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM LOW LEVELS, SUPPORTING HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION AMID A LOW- LEVEL JET. THIS SETTING COULD ENABLE
GUSTY OR EVEN STRONG WINDS FROM THESE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THEY MOVE FROM EASTERN MT AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND, THOUGH AGAIN, THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LOWER OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THAT FRONT THROUGH THAT AREA. PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND IN MOST AREAS MONDAY, AND BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S F. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY COULD RESULT IN HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEING EVEN COOLER
THAN FORECAST. OUR LOCATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE IN SD DURING THIS PERIOD SUGGESTS THE OVERALL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE LIMITED
BY A LACK OF GREATER BOUYANCY. THE PROBABILITY OF 0.50" INCHES
OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN THIS PERIOD IS 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN PARTS
OF SOUTHERN ND, THOUGH.
THEREAFTER, BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE
EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO RESUME, WITH LOW SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW-PREDICABILITY, MAINLY LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CRESTING THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
FRONT AND RELATED WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, PASSING THROUGH KXWA AROUND 21Z. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BEGINNING AROUND 21Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. KMOT AND
KDIK HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BEING IMPACTED BY A STORM
AND A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THOSE TERMINALS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. OVERNIGHT
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND IT AFTER 06Z.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CJS
DISCUSSION...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
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