510  
FXUS63 KBIS 210350  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
950 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR MAX FOR TODAY, AND WE  
SHOULD SEE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE A BIT ACROSS OUR  
AREA. NO FORECAST CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THIS  
UPDATE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
CURRENTLY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW AT  
MID LEVELS AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES  
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS, 20S AND 30S ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ALONG THE  
JAMES RIVER MAINLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.  
 
THE WARM, DRY AIR PERSISTS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO  
SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.  
 
TONIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT 10  
TO 15 MPH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD WITH LOWS FROM 10 TO 20  
ABOVE ZERO. WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S  
ALONG, NORTH, AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
QUIET EARLY THEN A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD.  
 
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY  
SUNDAY. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH  
SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND  
30S NORTH AND EAST OF THE RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY AS THE MID  
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.  
 
THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND TURNS MORE NORTHWEST  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH  
THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY  
COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.  
 
COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTHERN  
STREAM TROUGH BROADENS INTO A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS  
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY AND  
TEENS AND 20S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.  
 
CONTINUED DRY BUT WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK  
AS ANOTHER WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT MANY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.  
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JJS  
SHORT TERM...JV  
LONG TERM...JV  
AVIATION...JJS  
 
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