848
FXUS63 KBIS 130836
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, THEN MORE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE,
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED BAND OF PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER, BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND
GIVEN HIGHER CLOUD BASES. THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN WITH ITS PASSAGE, BUT RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
FROM THIS POTENTIAL. A 15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THE MAIN STORY
FOR TODAY IS HOW COOL IT WILL FEEL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 60S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING, WHICH COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S, WITH UPPER 30S LIKELY IN LOW-LYING, SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, BUT BRIEFLY BECOMES
LESS ACTIVE AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. BUT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW, PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PEAK COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE IS ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WITH
0-6 KM VALUES RANGING FROM AS LOW AS 10 KTS TO AS HIGH AS 50
KTS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, ALL WHILE DEEPER TROUGHING PERSISTS FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN A
SOUTHWARD TREND OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS, BUT STILL LOOKS TO
BRING US THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE A PLEASANT DAY PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL, WITH HIGHS
STILL MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LIGHTER WINDS. BUT THERE ARE STILL
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, AND THOSE CHANCES INCREASE AND
EXPAND EASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
ENSEMBLES CONSOLIDATING ON THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PROVIDING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA, FORECAST
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN TURN TRENDING COOLER, NOW MOSTLY
AROUND 65 TO 70. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS, BUT THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT LIMITS THAT POTENTIAL TO
PERHAPS JUST SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO RECOVER WITH THE MID WEEK
SHORTWAVE NOW FAVORED TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE NBM NOW KEEPS
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHILE
TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
THEREAFTER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE PERSISTENCE OF
THE STALLED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY, WITH 3 OUT OF 4 ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS SHOWING A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE NBM MAINTAINS
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS CYCLONIC AND COULD FEATURE A WEAKER TRAILING SHORTWAVE,
WITH LOWER CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THEM REACHING KMOT OR KJMS
REMAINS LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED, AND ANY RAIN WOULD BE
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AVIATION SHOULD IT OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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