540
FXUS63 KBIS 051906
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
206 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMEST DAY IS THURSDAY, THEN A BIT COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN POSSIBLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
CURRENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND A HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. A VERY SLIGHT
SHORTWAVE AT THE JET STREAM LEVEL IS CREATING HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THIS TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND LIGHT RAIN RETURNS ON RADAR. SO FAR THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF
THIS RAIN REACHING THE GROUND, LIKELY DUE TO A VERY DRY NEAR
SURFACE ATMOSPHERE. TO THE WEST A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL AS WINDS COULD GUST TO 30MPH WITH THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND DRY GRASS. TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN CO COULD PUSH NEAR SURFACE WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERES ALSO A CHANCE THAT
THROUGH FRIDAY WE START TO HAVE SMOKE ALOFT LINGER.
THURSDAY THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATE ENOUGH TO HAVE A FEW
HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFOR WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN ND FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG WITH THE VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS, A COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE AIR WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE IS AT IT'S PEAK OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK THAT RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN TO ZONAL
FLOW, KEEPING THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
THEN ONLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ZONAL FLOW
COULD CREATE SOME DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. LATE THIS WEEKEND THE FLOW TURNS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW SLIDES SOUTH
TOWARDS NEW YORK. THIS WILL BRING SOME CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
NORTHERN ND. MORE DISTURBANCES COULD FORM OFF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME LOOK
TO STAY IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WILDFIRE SMOKE IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE, LEFT OUT OF KBIS FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON 5 TO 20KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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