393
FXUS63 KBIS 130520
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. WAVES OF LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST ROTATES WESTWARD EARLY
THIS MORNING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE ENHANCED SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
(GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ND) AS FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER-LEVEL
ASCENT INCREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH THAT WE WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE WITHIN THE NEXT 15-20 MINUTES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021
WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, WITH LATEST SFC
OBS STILL SHOWING GUSTS FOR THESE AREAS TO AROUND 40 MPH. BUFKIT
SOUNDING ANALYSIS DOES INDEED SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-35 KNOTS
OF WIND TO MIX THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. REST OF THE WIND ADV WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADV AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE
MENTIONED THERE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES ELONGATED LOW FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGH OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH SECONDARY LOW OFF
TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE ERIE. A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM, BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MELTING HAS
OCCURRED, THOUGH A LITTLE SNOW HAS STUCK ON SOME ROADS OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, UPPER LOW AND
AFFILIATE SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA,
WHILE SECONDARY UPPER LOW SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE TRICK CONTINUES TO BE
MELTING AND HOW THE ROADS REACT. WITH SOME SLUSH REMAINING ON SOME
ROADS IN THE NORTH, COMBINED WITH LATEST ROAD TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS SHOWING ROAD SURFACES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT
WET SLUSHY ROADS TO FREEZE UP AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
DEVELOP. WITH THIS, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS REMAINS QUITE TRICKY, BUT POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM THIS WERE ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY, LOW STARTS TO GRADUALLY MEANDER EAST. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER WINDY DAY, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING, ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS WE APPROACH EVENING, SNOW SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ARE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY PUSH FURTHER
OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING TO PARTS OF THE AREA. A DEEP H500
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THIS SURFACE LOW AND ITS PROXIMITY TO NORTH DAKOTA WILL DETERMINE
HOW HIGH AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME, BUT FOR NOW AT
LEAST SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.
THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
CLEARING SKIES, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED H500 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE 60S AGAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2021
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BRING PERIODS OF SNOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025.
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...GALE
AVIATION...AJ
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