549
FXUS63 KBIS 131410
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
910 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE WEST.
CHANCES (40 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME
AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
LOOSELY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY WINDING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WARM AND
QUICKLY TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN ND TODAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN WESTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR NORTHWEST,
THOUGH WITH PRESSURE FALLS AND A LACK OF CAA, SEEM LIKELY TO
STAY SHORT MOST LOCATIONS, MOST OF THE TIME. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
A FEW WAA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER, WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING AMPLE
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SUSPECT MOST ANY RAIN THAT REACHES
THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND WELL SHORT OF A WETTING RAIN.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PASS THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY TO A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY DIRECTION. MODERATE PRESSURE RISES AND
STRONG CAA ARE FAVORED TO PASS THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BOTH PRESSURE RISES AND CAA MAY WEAKEN TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY
PASS EASTWARD. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVERALL
FAVORED IN THE NORTHWEST, THEREFORE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH MATCHES THE
STRONGEST EFI SIGNAL AT THIS POINT.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG. EITHER
WAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS EASTERN
ONTARIO/JAMES BAY. AT THIS POINT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
COLORADO HELPING TO POTENTIALLY ADVECT SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THE LATEST NBM RUN HAS A 30 TO 70
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH RESIDUAL 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVERALL ARE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL THEN
EXPAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS WELL. A
FEW HOURS OF TRANSITORY LLWS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AS IT WINDS UP OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE, INITIALLY IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND
TODAY, AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED
TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS, EXPANDED
THE RED FLAG WARNING A TIER OF ZONES/COUNTIES EAST INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. ALSO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS 8 TO 12 HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND
SINCE RECOVERIES ARE LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT, THE WATCH IS
CONTINUOUS WITH NO GAP EVEN IF CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE.
SOME RELIEF MAY ARRIVE TO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AS MODELS
HINT THAT AT LEAST SOME GULF MOISTURE MAY ADVECT INTO THE STATE.
THIS FAVORS WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR WETTING RAINS IS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHERE MOST OF THE STATE HAS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE IN BOTH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR NDZ001>003-009-010-017-055-056.
UPDATE...JOHNSON/TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
FIRE WEATHER...TELKEN
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