750
FXUS63 KBIS 160621
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
121 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS.
- NOTABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
WEEK AND START NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
FOR LATE NIGHT UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPIRE THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGHOUT OUR AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,
THEREFORE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY FOR FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH CLOSER OVERALL, SO WILL LET THINGS PLAY
OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SKY COVER IS
STEADILY ERODING IN WESTERN MONTANA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS SKY COVER ERODES WILL
GREATLY IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE FREEZING CONDITIONS OCCUR TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE
GENERAL TREND THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,
INCREASING PRESSURE RISES COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY BRIEF
SURGE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE STATE. THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS SKIES CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENTLY, STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT NOW TO
OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER, STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
FILTERING INTO THE STATE. PEAK GUSTS HAVE BEEN RIGHT AROUND 50
MPH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS TILL
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS WIND
HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE,
ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE FORECAST. BEST MOISTURE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE OVER MY EAST, WHERE A FEW HUNDRETHS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
S/WV TROUGHING TO OUR EAST TONIGHT WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TO OUR WEST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT, THUS THE DECREASE IN WINDS
FORECAST. IN ADDITION, CAA COUPLED WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DECREASE IN WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
20S WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL, AND TO NEAR FREEZING SOUTH CENTRAL.
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS AND CLOUDS
LINGER THE LONGEST. THUS, WE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR
WESTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW FOR FRIDAY, YET THE COLD START WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S DESPITE A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AS WELL. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME AN ISSUE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS SUB-MARGINAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST DEAMPLIFIES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT MOVES EAST, MORPHING INTO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, SPREADING EAST THIS
EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044-
055>062.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JJS
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