165
FXUS63 KBIS 221803
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NOVEMBER.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MIDDAY UPDATE. WE ARE
GETTING PRETTY CLOSE TO FCST HIGHS HERE AT BISMARCK AND IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL IN GENERAL. WILL BUMP UP THE DAYTIME HIGHS JUST A
LITTLE HERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER SKY COVER THIS MORNING.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH BRINGING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SOME
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND MAY BE FOUND AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER, YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FORECAST, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL
KEEPING A MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS SAME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HELP CLEAR OUT SKIES TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK AND MAINLY DRY
DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT RETURNING SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, BRING STEADY WESTERLY FLOW, AND MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. MILD TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE FOUND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SOME INCREASED CLOUDS
COVER WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
ONE MORE MILD DAY LOOKS TO BE FOUND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. MOST MODELS HAVE AN INITIAL WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MONDAY, WITH A TRAILING CLIPPER TYPE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOW THESE TWO WAVES INTERACT, ALONG WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW, WILL GREATLY DETERMINE
WINTER WEATHER CHANCES AND IMPACTS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY BOTH OF THE DOMINATE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS HAVE AT LEAST
INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE STATE,
WITH THE CURRENT NBM CHANCES AROUND 30 TO 70 PERCENT IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL RELIES ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER SNOW SETS UP.
ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE STILL FURTHER NORTH OR MORE PROGRESSIVE,
WHILE GEFS ENSEMBLES DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW MORE AND BRINGS
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE STATE.
EACH OF THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE SIMILAR CHANCES OF OCCURRING,
ALTHOUGH CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MORE FAVOR A GEFS SOLUTION.
EVEN IN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION, THERE ARE STILL
SOME SMALL SHIFT OF TAILS FOR SNOWFALL INDICATING LOW CHANCES
FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN
AND SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH SNOW CHANCES PUSHING EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCORDING TO THE NBM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE ABOUT 10 TO 40 PERCENT, WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN PORTIONS. THUS
THERE IS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW, YET MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD STILL BE STRONG WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS COULD BRING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. ECMWF EFI VALUES HINTING SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THE LOCATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING PASSAGE OF THIS
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EACH DAY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
HIGHS MID WEEK IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAINING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW. SURFACE HIGH
LOOKS TO LIMIT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON THANKSGIVING, ALTHOUGH A
STALLED BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME SNOW IN THE WEST. THIS HIGH
PUSHES EASTWARD FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW POSSIBLE AS THIS
MENTIONED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST. CLUSTERS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
BROAD TROUGH PATTERN POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONTINUED COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN FOR CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, WITH FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTIONS BRINGING LESS SNOW CHANCES TO NORTH DAKOTA. IT
IS OF NOTE THAT CURRENT NBM CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW IN A 48 HOUR PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY LOW TO
MEDIUM (30 TO 60%) CHANCES WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THUS SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ONLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NORTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND,
INCLUDING KJMS BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AROUND 5-10
KNOTS AND REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...TWH
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