761
FXUS63 KBIS 251125
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- MOSTLY DRY TODAY, THEN LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SOUTHWEST, SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ND EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES NEED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER A COOL START, WE WARM INTO THE 40S NORTH TO
50S SOUTH. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GETS SHUNTED NORTH AND EAST. THIS SETS UP A DECENT AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MONDAK
REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH KEEPS THE UPGLIDE MOSTLY
OUT OF THE STATE, EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. IF IT DOES, EXPECT IT MAY BE
LATER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS (LATE EVENING, BUT MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT). LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WE COULD SEE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. ANY
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE
DAKOTAS. OVERALL THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NBM
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE NBM 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST AN
INCH OF SNOW, ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY IS AROUND 30 TO 60 PERCENT
FROM BISMARCK SOUTHWEST TO HETTINGER, AND SOUTH TO SELFRIDGE.
THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT AS SIMILAR, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THEY ARE NOT AS COMPACT WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ND. YESTERDAY THE LOW WAS MORE CLOSED AS IT LIFTED INTO
THE AREA, BUT TODAY IT'S MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SD. THIS SHIFTS THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY. THERE'S STILL QPF OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL, BUT LESS. WE'D STILL BE IN A MORE FAVORED AREA
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMPARED TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, WHERE PRECIP HERE MAY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. A LOOK AT THE
LATEST RAP/HRRR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THAT GO OUT THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY (THE SAME ENDING TIME AS THE NBM 24 PROBABILITY OF AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OF SNOW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND) INDICATE PRETTY MUCH ALL QPF REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AN EXTRAPOLATION BEYOND
06Z TUESDAY, WOULD LIKELY KEEP A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DRY, EXCEPT MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE JRV. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
THERE'S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE
TREND FOR THE QPF LOOKS TO BE SLOW AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE
GOOD THING IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A PRETTY LOW IMPACT EVENT.
WE MAY STILL SEE SOME LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTHERN ND. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT, AND ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL.
WE GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE CLOSED LOWS SWINGING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. AFTER TUESDAY, THE NBM ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES SHOW A PRETTY BIG JUMP, BUT ENSEMBLE SPREADS ALSO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT. DETERMINIST MODELS DO INDICATE SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER OUR AREA, DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES
MAY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT THE EXTENT OF ANY WARM-UP
REMAINS A QUESTION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. MOST
CLEAR IN THE NORTH TODAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL
SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WELL SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KTS, AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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