439
FXUS63 KBIS 242031
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
231 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 50 BELOW
ZERO AGAIN FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTH.
- FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH MODESTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH STILL REMAINING BELOW
AVERAGE OVER MANY LOCATIONS.
- LOW SNOW CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES SHOWING UP FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
MODEST LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND A TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MANITOBA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
RESULTING A A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN STORY OVER OUR AREA IS THE
FRIGID AIRMASS SITUATED OVER OUR AREA, AND ONGOING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AFTER OUR LITTLE
REPRIEVE FROM THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES (PARTS OF THE AREA
CLIMBED TO ZERO OR A BIT ABOVE, MAINLY SOUTHWEST), ANOTHER
ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH SETTLE SOUTHERLY,
AND A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OVER OUR AREA. COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DIP TO AROUND
30 BELOW ZERO, COMBINING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE 40 BELOW TO
50 BELOW WIND CHILL VALUES. FURTHER SOUTH, WIND CHILL VALUES OF
30 BELOW TO 40 BELOW REMAIN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, WILL LEAVE
ONGOING HEADLINES THAT WERE UPDATED MID-DAY IN PLACE.
COLD DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING THROUGH, WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO OR BELOW. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL LET
THE CURRENT ROUND OF HEADLINES PLAY THROUGH FOR NOW, THEN
REVISIT.
TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER OUR
AREA AS A BIT WARMER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WARMING WILL BE LIMITED AS A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW KEEP IT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR NORTHEAST. SO,
WE WILL END UP WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID, EVEN IN THE WARMER
LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE GOING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. CURRENTLY
FORECAST ONLY HAS SOME LOW SNOW CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
ADDITIONAL FLAKES OF SNOW SHOW UP GIVEN THE PATTERN OF VARIOUS
SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL THEN IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT TO VFR LEVELS.
IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY
RESULT IN VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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