159
FXUS63 KBIS 130241
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY, AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE (15-25%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EAST THURSDAY, AND A CHANCE (40-60%) OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED, SO THE RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. AS OF 0230Z, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ND INTO CENTRAL SD AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEB, AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FORECAST FOR A COOL AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS IS
ON TRACK, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WE WILL ALLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
PLANNED WITH OBSERVED DECREASING TRENDS IN WINDS AREA-WIDE. WE
EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT WITH SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RAPIDLY DECOUPLES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT, LEADING TO AN EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WE REDUCED
FORECAST LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S F OVER MORE OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL ND WITH THIS UPDATE, THOUGH DID NOT LOWER THEM
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE FROST TO THE FORECAST SINCE LIGHT RETURN-
FLOW AND RELATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. NONETHELESS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF FROST IN LOW-
LYING AREAS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING IN CENTRAL ND AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO CONTINUE UNTIL CLOSER TO ITS SCHEDULED
EXPIRATION, AS SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL MEETING CRITERIA AS
OF THIS WRITING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE WESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES FROM THE WIND
ADVISORY, AS WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED TO MAGNITUDES
COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THAT AREA AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT RELAX. WE ANTICIPATE ALLOWING
THE REST OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 7 PM
CDT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN THE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THUS
RESULTING IN WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE ARE 40 KT WINDS AT 850
MB ALOFT WHICH HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS HAS
LED TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON (SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.) TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN CALM
WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FROST AS LOWS COULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S, BUT THIS IS LESS LIKELY.
TOMORROW, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER MINNESOTA.
THUS, LEADING TO A TIGHT NORTH SOUTH ORIENTATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCING WINDY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO WARM IN TO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S OUT WEST. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
DEEPEN EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
BRING HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THURSDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY. A 60 TO 65 KT 700
MB JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY SUPPORTING HIGH
WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH HIGH WINDS WILL
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT, THUS LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A COLDER
AIRMASS. THIS COULD BRING BACK CHANCES FOR FROST ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR SATURDAY MORNING. A SUBTLE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING IN A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING A SUBTLE
REPRIEVE FROM THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN REMAINS
TO LOOK ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND FOR
THE DURATION OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ND. WE EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING FROM 25 TO 35 KT AT KXWA AND KDIK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A LONG-DURATION STRONG
WIND EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND PEAKING IN INTENSITY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH BY THE AFTERNOON OUT WEST, INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT OUT WEST.
THUS, THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST TO BE POOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
HELPING FURTHER THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION. ANOTHER DRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING IN HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP 60 MPH POSSIBLE. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT. ANY
FIRES THAT IGNITE WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL OR SUPPRESS.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING IN SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040>045.
UPDATE...CJS
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...CJS
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON
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