830
FXUS63 KBIS 040953
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
453 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TODAY, UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON
SUNDAY. MODEST COOLING TREND THEN DEVELOPS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST, WITH
FLAT HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODEST SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA HAS LEAD TO SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, THOUGH COVERAGE HAS NOTABLY DECREASED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
FOR TODAY, THE NEXT MODEST SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST, WITH 0-6KM
VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. SO, CAN'T RULE UP A STRONGER STORM
BRIEFLY PULSING UP, BUT HOLDING THAT STRENGTH WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BY
LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, MODEST RIDGE FLATTENS AS A
SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH
AROUND 40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE, SPC HAS NOTED A
MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE NOTABLY WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WITH HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR
TO LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ALSO WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, WITH A BREAK BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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