500
FXUS63 KBIS 061745
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS THEN
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY.
- WESTERN ND WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S ON
TUESDAY, OTHERWISE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID DAY UPDATE. NO SHORT TERM
ADJUSTMENTS THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THIS TIME, SINCE IT
BROADLY REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS LATE MORNING UPDATE,
THOUGH ARE SOON EXPECTED TO ERODE AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN
FROM ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WEAK REFLECTIVITIES CAN BE
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH ARE ELEVATED ABOVE A FAIRLY DRY NEAR SURFACE TIME. THUS,
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, EASTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS UPDATE,
HAVE BLENDED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS INTO SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FALLING FROM LOW-LEVEL STRATUS MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ND. HOWEVER, THE KBIS SOUNDING MAINTAINS A
VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL LAYER, SO WOULDN'T EXPECT MUCH BEYOND A FEW
FLAKES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
NUDGING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE
GRADIENT IN THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SO WHILE A FEW
FLURRIES, OR EVEN A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER, IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, SUSPECT MOST RETURNS WILL BE VIRGA IF ANYTHING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 40 IN THE FAR WEST, WHERE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS SAID SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATES EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP. INITIALLY,
THESE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY SEE A BIT OF A LULL TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. AS THE CLIPPER
PASSES THROUGH, WINDS WILL TAKE ON A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT, AND BECOME VERY WINDY AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA MAY
BE MORE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
AT LEAST HELP LIMIT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO SOME DEGREE.
IN ADDITION TO WINDS, RAIN WILL LIKELY ENTER INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX
IN ON THE BACKSIDE AS WELL. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW, THOUGH PERHAPS WITH SOME RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES, MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ONCE
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
AFTER WHICH, WIDESPREAD 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES BEYOND TODAY, EXPECT A LARGE CONTRAST
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S EAST TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE
ND/MT BORDER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, THOUGH SOME READINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACTLY HOW WARM THINGS
BECOME, MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN REGARD TO LOWS, EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S AGAIN TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH, LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY TOO SEE
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING AT
THE TERMINAL OF KDIK. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL PASS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. CURRENTLY, THERE IS NOT
EXPECTATION FOR PRECIPITATION AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL AT THIS
TIME. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN INCREASINGLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 25 KNOT AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...ADAM
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