036
FXUS63 KBIS 151922
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
222 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW (WEST) TO HIGH (EAST) CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON BRING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY.
A POST FRONTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO TO 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IF
FORECAST TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEXT TUESDAY BRINGING
FORTH PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES HAVE
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE TIMING OF
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NOW THE SYSTEM TIMING WILL INFLUENCE HOW IMPACTFUL THIS
EVENT WILL BE TO THE REGION. IF THIS SYSTEM COMES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY THE SOLAR INSOLATION COULD KEEP ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING IMPACTS. IF THIS
SYSTEM COMES OVERNIGHT IT COULD CAUSE ISSUES FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WARM UP TUESDAY
LIMITING THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT IF IT IS IMPACTFUL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 50S OUT WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP ACROSS THE STATE STARTING WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE 60S TO 70S ACROSS THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE BEING ABOVE 70 AND NEAR 80 FOR KBIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO STALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS HAS BROUGHT
FORTH MVFR CONDITIONS TO KXWA AND KDIK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KBIS BRINGING
FORTH MVFR CONDITIONS TO KBIS. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS DYING DOWN TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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