396
FXUS63 KBIS 101715
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
- DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 105
EACH DAY, AND POSSIBLY UP TO 110 ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 92 TO 102 SATURDAY, 97 TO 107 SUNDAY,
AND 95 TO 105 MONDAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOT SPELL.
- A LITTLE COOLER WITH DAILY HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THE TIME OF THIS MID DAY UPDATE. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE, AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MOST OF THE PATCHY AND DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
EXTENDED THE AREA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AS OF 3
AM CDT. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IS SHOWING SOME STRATUS/FOG
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND T/TD SPREADS REMAIN LOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE SOME FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ATTIM. WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK
BEFORE SENDING OUT THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
MORNING FOG.
FOR TODAY, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONCERNS. FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORNING FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE LOOKS
TO BE THE POTENTIAL. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE THIS MORNING, BUT PATCHY LOW LYING
FOG IS PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ANYWHERE THIS MORNING.
WE BEGIN OUR WARM-UP TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. ALTHOUGH NBM IS GIVING US A DRY
FORECAST TODAY, THINK THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, WITH SPC ONLY INDICATING
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, WITH NO THUNDER ELSEWHERE. WE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND, AND EASTWARD. BULK SHEAR IS WEAK
SO AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW,
BUT DON'T THINK THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN PERHAPS AN AREA OF LOCALIZED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN
CENTRAL ND, OR POSSIBLY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE NORTH. THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
ARE A BIG NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR CI TODAY AND WHY WE WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOUGH, AND CAMS RIGHT NOW ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY.
THE HEAT ARRIVES IN FULL FORCE ON SATURDAY, WITH SUNDAY BEING
THE DAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAT IMPACTS. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES SUNDAY, BOTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
110 DEGREES. WE ARE NOT QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE UPGRADED THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH TO AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING. WE TALKED ABOUT SOME NUDGERS, AND SINCE
UTILIZING WET BULB GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AND HEATRISK VALUES,
I'VE NEVER SEEN THEM THIS HIGH OVER SUCH A WIDESPREAD AREA.
EVEN ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY WHEN OUR TYPICAL CRITERIA FALLS A
LITTLE SHORT IN A FEW AREAS, WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD HIGH TO
EXTREME WBGT VALUES AND HEATRISK VALUES IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY.
WE DO COOL DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND WE MAY NOT
NEED TO CARRY THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
HERE, BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WE FELT IT WOULD BE BEST TO KEEP
THE MESSAGING SIMPLE AND CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE REACH IT.
AFTER MONDAY, WE DO SEE A BIT OF A DROP IN THE NBM ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES, BUT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH. THIS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANOTHER 'SHORT DURATION'
WARM-UP AROUND MIDWEEK. NBM IS ALSO SHOWING DAILY LOW CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE NO REASON TO ADJUST WHAT BASICALLY
AMOUNTS TO CLIMATOLOGY SUMMERTIME POPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP. THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, STARTING TO STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME BREEZY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 1 AM
CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-
017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-
055>062.
UPDATE...ADAM/SMITH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...ADAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page