746
AXUS75 KCYS 141200
DGTCYS
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT WED JUN 14 2023
...AN UNSEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN IN MAY AND EARLY JUNE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
SYNOPSIS
MAY PRECIPITATION VARIED FROM 0.24 INCH AT RAWLINS (1.22 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL), TO 7.33 INCHES AT SCOTTSBLUFF (4.55 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL). MAY MEAN TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 51.6 DEGREES AT LARAMIE
(4.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), TO 61.5 DEGREES AT SCOTTSBLUFF (3.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
THROUGH JUNE 12, PRECIPITATION VARIED FROM 0.32 INCH AT ALLIANCE
(0.94 INCH BELOW NORMAL), TO 3.15 INCHES AT SIDNEY (1.85 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL). MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH JUNE 12 RANGED FROM 54.6
DEGREES AT LARAMIE (0.6 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL), TO 67 DEGREES AT
CHADRON (3.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
THE JUNE 13 U.S. HIGH PLAINS DROUGHT MONITOR DEPICTED DROUGHT-FREE
CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT SOUTHEAST CARBON COUNTY, WESTERN CONVERSE
COUNTY, SOUTHEAST ALBANY COUNTY, MUCH OF LARAMIE AND KIMBALL
COUNTIES, AND SOUTHERN CHEYENNE COUNTY.
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM SOUTHEAST CARBON
COUNTY INTO MOST OF ALBANY, CONVERSE, NIOBRARA, SIOUX, BOX BUTTE,
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES; ALL OF DAWES, SCOTTS BLUFF, AND BANNER
COUNTIES; AND NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST GOSHEN COUNTY, WESTERN MORRILL
COUNTY, AND NORTHERN KIMBALL COUNTY.
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) REMAINED IN NORTHEAST CONVERSE AND NORTHERN
NIOBRARA COUNTIES, FAR NORTHEAST ALBANY COUNTY, MOST OF PLATTE
COUNTY, CENTRAL GOSHEN COUNTY, SOUTHERN BOX BUTTE COUNTY, FAR
WESTERN SIOUX COUNTY, AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN MORRILL COUNTY.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION PROMOTED
LOW FIRE DANGER. THE 10-HOUR AND 1000-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES RANGED
FROM THE 16TH TO GREATER THAN 25TH PERCENTILES.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
AS OF JUNE 11, LESS THAN 2 PERCENT OF WYOMING WAS CATEGORIZED AS
SEVERE DROUGHT, WITH 19 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE DROUGHT.
ABNORMAL DRYNESS COVERED 31 PERCENT AND DROUGHT-FREE INCREASED TO
48 PERCENT. MANY STATE PRODUCERS WERE MAKING SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN
PLANTING AND CROPS WERE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME GROWTH. PASTURE AND
RANGE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH 93 PERCENT RATED FAIR TO
EXCELLENT. STOCK WATER SUPPLIES WERE RATED 9 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY
SHORT, 84 PERCENT ADEQUATE, AND 7 PERCENT SURPLUS. IRRIGATION WATER
SUPPLIES WERE RATED 1 PERCENT POOR, 61 PERCENT GOOD, AND 38 PERCENT
EXCELLENT. EMERGED CORN WAS 65 PERCENT, COMPARED TO 59 PERCENT LAST
YEAR. TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS 22 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT, 68
PERCENT ADEQUATE, AND 10 PERCENT SURPLUS. SUBSOIL MOISTURE WAS 37
PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT, 55 PERCENT ADEQUATE, AND 8 PERCENT
SURPLUS.
AS OF JUNE 11, NEBRASKA TOPSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES WERE RATED 49
PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT, 49 PERCENT ADEQUATE, AND 2 PERCENT
SURPLUS. SUBSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES WERE RATED 65 PERCENT SHORT TO
VERY SHORT, 34 PERCENT ADEQUATE, AND 1 PERCENT SURPLUS. EMERGED CORN
WAS 97 PERCENT, COMPARED TO 91 PERCENT LAST YEAR. PASTURE AND RANGE
CONDITIONS WERE RATED 37 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR, 30 PERCENT FAIR,
25 PERCENT GOOD, AND 8 PERCENT EXCELLENT.
SOIL MOISTURE
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE 0-100 CM SOIL MOISTURE
IMPROVED IN RECENT WEEKS TO THE 80TH TO 100TH PERCENTILE OVER PARTS
OF THE WYOMING HIGH PLAINS (EAST OF INTERSTATE 25) INTO MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ONE-METER SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES IMPROVED TO 30
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE TOP ONE-METER SOIL WAS RATED IN THE 70TH TO
80TH WETNESS PERCENTILE. CROP MOISTURE INDICES OF +1 TO +1.9
INDICATED ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WERE OBSERVED IN CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES INCLUDING THE LARAMIE, LITTLE SNAKE, UPPER NORTH
PLATTE AND ENCAMPMENT RIVER BASINS. NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS ALSO PREVAILED ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN FROM
GLENROCK TO FORT LARAMIE AND ORIN, WYOMING. NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WERE
OBSERVED ON LODGEPOLE CREEK AT BUSHNELL, NEBRASKA.
JUNE 12 SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RESERVOIR
STORAGES...
RESERVOIR PERCENT FULL
ALCOVA 98
GLENDO 93
GUERNSEY 61
KORTES 100
PATHFINDER 56
SEMINOE 81
GRAY REEF 85
BOX BUTTE 56
LAKE ALICE 47
LITTLE LAKE ALICE 29
MINATARE 90
WINTERS CREEK 59
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
THE MEDIAN DATES FOR PEAK SNOW PACK WERE MID TO LATE MAY. MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS MELTED AND
RUNOFF INTO NEARBY RIVERS, CREEKS AND STREAMS. BASIN SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS, MEASURED AT THE NATURAL RESOURCE CONSERVATION SERVICE
SNOTEL STATIONS SHOWED THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
BASINS ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF MEDIAN. RECENT RAIN ON SNOW ACCELERATED
THE RUNOFF RESULTING IN HIGH FLOWS AND MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE LITTLE SNAKE, LARAMIE AND UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVERS.
SPRING SNOWMELT RUNOFF FLOODING FORECAST
THE WYOMING OFFICE OF THE BUREAU OF RECLAMATION PREDICTS THE LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER SNOWMELT RUNOFF WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. TOTAL
APRIL THROUGH JULY RUNOFF IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN ABOVE
GLENDO DAM IS EXPECTED TO BE 1,307,000 ACRE-FEET, WHICH IS 149
PERCENT OF THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE. TOTAL CONSERVATION STORAGE CAPACITY
OF THE NORTH PLATTE RESERVOIR SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 2,815,800 ACRE-
FEET. AS OF MAY 31, THE COMBINED STORAGE CAPACITY IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RESERVOIRS WAS 1,938,800 ACRE-FEET, WHICH IS 97 PERCENT OF
THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE.
THROUGH JULY, RELEASES FROM SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT 2800 CUBIC-FEET PER SECOND (CFS), 1200 TO 3000 CFS FROM
GRAY REEF RESERVOIR, AND 250 TO 4800 CFS FROM GUERNSEY RESERVOIR.
CLIMATE SUMMARY
BELOW ARE THE CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION, DEPARTURES AND (PERCENT OF
NORMAL) FOR SELECTED CITIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE SINCE JANUARY 1. (BASED ON 1991-2020 CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS)
CHEYENNE 8.84 +1.71 (124)
DOUGLAS 4.33 -1.70 (72)
LARAMIE 4.35 -0.28 (94)
RAWLINS 8.72 +3.98 (184)
TORRINGTON 6.73 +0.38 (106)
ALLIANCE 5.19 -1.61 (76)
CHADRON 9.31 +2.24 (132)
SCOTTSBLUFF 12.28 +4.39 (156)
SIDNEY 10.81 +3.92 (157)
ENSO/PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS
IN MAY, WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS EMERGED AS ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. ALL
OF THE WEEKLY NINO INDICES WERE ABOVE +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS.
CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THE EQUATOR AND SUPPRESSED OVER
INDONESIA. EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AND THERE IS A 84 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THE EL NINO EXCEEDING MODERATE STRENGTH INTO THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC WINTER 2023-2024.
THE JUNE 2023 OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE,
WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2023 SEASONAL OUTLOOK FAVORS A 33 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WESTWARD, AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, BELOW AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, BELOW OR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK THROUGH AUGUST 2023 INDICATES DROUGHT
IMPROVEMENT AND REMOVAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED JULY 14 OR SOONER IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
RELATED WEB SITES
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE ACCESSED
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
TO REPORT DROUGHT IMPACTS IN YOUR AREA, GO TO THE DROUGHT IMPACT
REPORTER AT:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP AND CLICK SUBMIT A REPORT
INFORMATION FOR THE MEDIA CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/NEWSOUTREACH/INFORMATIONFORMEDIA.ASPX
USGS WYOMING DROUGHT WATCH:
HTTP://WY.WATER.USGS.GOV/PROJECTS/DROUGHT/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC): HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND RESERVOIR INFORMATION:
NWS: HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV
OWP: HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV
NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS):
HTTPS://WWW.WATER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=CYS
NRCS WYOMING: HTTP://WWW.WY.NRCS.USDA.GOV
USGS: HTTPS://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USBR: HTTPS://WWW.USBR.GOV/
WATER RESOURCE DATA SYSTEM (WRDS): HTTP://WWW.WRDS.UWYO.EDU
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) AND NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENT
PREDICTION, USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS, AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT
WAS GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES, USACE, AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS:
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS REGARDING THIS DROUGHT PRODUCT
CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1301 AIRPORT PARKWAY CHEYENNE, WY 82001
TELEPHONE...307-772-2468
........
800-269-6220
EMAIL...W-CYS.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
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