804
FGUS73 KLBF 261836
ESFLBF
NEC017-031-063-069-085-089-101-103-111-151800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1233 PM CST WED FEB 26 2020
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 02/29/2020 - 05/29/2020
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:NORTH PLATTE RIVER
LISCO 4.0 5.0 6.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEWELLEN 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
NORTH PLATTE 6.0 6.5 7.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
ROSCOE 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 21 9 5 <5 <5 <5
NORTH PLATTE 13.0 14.0 15.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN RIVER
EWING 1N 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE RIVER
BRADY NORTH CHANN 7.5 9.0 11.0 : 29 18 10 12 <5 <5
:FRENCHMAN CREEK
PALISADE 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:STINKING WATER CREEK
PALISADE 2NW 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:NIOBRARA RIVER
SPARKS 6.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 02/29/2020 - 05/29/2020
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:NORTH PLATTE RIVER
LISCO 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.1 4.1
LEWELLEN 6.2 6.3 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.5
NORTH PLATTE 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.9
:SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
ROSCOE 4.8 4.8 5.2 6.5 8.7 9.6 11.2
NORTH PLATTE 7.1 7.1 7.3 8.9 10.9 11.6 13.0
:ELKHORN RIVER
EWING 1N 3.3 3.5 4.8 5.4 6.4 8.4 9.4
:PLATTE RIVER
BRADY NORTH CHANN 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.0 7.7 8.9 10.3
:FRENCHMAN CREEK
PALISADE 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.4 5.6 6.7 7.2
:STINKING WATER CREEK
PALISADE 2NW 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.7 6.6
:NIOBRARA RIVER
SPARKS 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 02/29/2020 - 05/29/2020
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:NORTH PLATTE RIVER
LISCO 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
LEWELLEN 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6
NORTH PLATTE 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
:SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
ROSCOE 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
NORTH PLATTE 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
:ELKHORN RIVER
EWING 1N 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6
:PLATTE RIVER
BRADY NORTH CHANN 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
:FRENCHMAN CREEK
PALISADE 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
:STINKING WATER CREEK
PALISADE 2NW 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.3
:NIOBRARA RIVER
SPARKS 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LBF FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF NEXT MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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