778
FXUS63 KLBF 140557
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1157 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S,
WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 0.2" OF RAINFALL
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WITH THE FGN BAND
THAT HAS DEVELOPED LEADING TO HIGHER QPF VALUES THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED. THIS HAS MADE RAINFALL ACTIVITY BECOME MORE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE, HOWEVER STILL CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS, GENERALLY AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING IN SEEING THE DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND
ASPECT TO THE SHOWERS, IT STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION
WILL START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER THERE IS AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERAUTRES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BUT THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A DISTRUBANCEFOR FRIDAY WITH
THE COMBINATION OF DRY, WARM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE ANTICIPATED
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PROBABLISTIC
MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WITH PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN
80% THUS MAY NEED TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS IF THE TREND CONTINUES. FOR FRIDAY SOT INDICATES A
STRONGER SIGNAL THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. PROBABILITY MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL INCREASING IN 60 MPH
WINDS OR GREATER AND THUS MAY SEE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS.
STRONG WINDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASE IN
FIRE POTENTIAL BOTH DAYS AS WELL. MIN RH WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 TO
30 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BOTH DAYS AND WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER COULD SEE A POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL CONCERNS AS WELL.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND WILL SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE 30S ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ON
SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS CIGS
SLOWLY LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED IFR AT VTN
BUT A LARGE PORTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT -SN/-RA POTENTIAL WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NARROW BANDS EXITING SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE
BANDS WILL BE FAIRLY NARROW, PERHAPS 20 MILES ACROSS, AND SO
CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS REMAINS MEDIUM AT BEST. BELIEVE
BEST POTENTIAL STAYS EAST OF LBF SO HAVE OMITTED FOR NOW.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH SITES
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...NMJ
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