479
FXUS63 KLBF 122341
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHERE SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
- BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS HAS
ALLOWED FOR CONTINUAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE UP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AS SUCH, ACTIVE WEATHER
IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL JET IS FORECASTED TO BE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE SHORT RANGE CAMS STILL HAVE
A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT OVER EXACT COVERAGE AND HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME, THE ENVIRONMENT DOES SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY THAT WILL FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT CAN
PRODUCE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL (40 - 50 KTS OF BULK WIND SHEAR,
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE CRESTING ABOVE 3500 -
4500 J/KG). AS STORMS MOVES EASTWARD THEY SHOULD GROW MORE UPSCALE
INT CLUSTERS AND BECOME MORE OF A DAMAGING WINDS THREAT WITH
DOWNSTREAM DCAPE VALUES BEING SUFFICIENT AT 1100 - 1300 J/KG FOR
POTENTIAL 60 - 80 MPH GUSTS. MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR TUNE WHERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY. AS
IT STANDS NOW, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE WEAKER INSTABILITY
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE MUCAPE ONLY PEAKS UP
TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. NEVERTHELESS,
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW WILL
AT LEAST SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHEREAS THE REST OF THE CWA WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THURSDAY WILL BRING QUITE A COOL
DOWN FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S (5 - 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL), WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-80 REMAINING IN THE MID 80S. FRIDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMUP
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEEKEND HAVING THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING A
40 - 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. WHEREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30 - 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH FALLING ACROSS THE SAME
AREA. THIS IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MODELS BECOME MORE
REFINED BUT REMAINS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL NOW TO HIGHLIGHT IT.
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NEAR OVERCAST SKIES THAT WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHS EXPECTED NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND MAY IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AS HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING CAUSING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 MILES AT TIMES.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY, BUT CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATER ON THURSDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...KULIK
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