486  
FXUS63 KLBF 092015  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
315 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR  
AREAS SOUTH OF AN ANTIOCH TO BARTLETT LINE WHERE LINGERING  
SNOWPACK HAS MELTED. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MILD  
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS.  
 
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST  
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS  
CONTINUING.  
 
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING A  
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS. A THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALSO  
EXISTS, THOUGH THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE  
FOUND WITHIN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.  
 
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN TO BECOME WESTERLY  
OVERNIGHT, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST ALONG THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE  
AREA, AND WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THIS  
BOUNDARY. THIS IS DUE TO IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL MIXING, WITH DEEP MIXING  
HEIGHTS APPROACHING H7 OR DEEPER. THIS WILL HAVE TWO IMPACTS. THE  
FIRST IS THAT THIS WILL PROMOTE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOWNWARDS, AND  
WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SECOND IS DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER  
MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT, WITH WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS  
35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW  
WILL ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S IN SNOW  
FREE AREAS, AND THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES,  
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING  
INCREASING COLD ADVECTION, AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 20S  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY  
MORNING, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT THEN QUICKLY PUSHING INTO THE  
SANDHILLS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD  
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY. HIGHS TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA  
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A CONSEQUENCE.  
BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN PERSISTS INTO MIDWEEK, WITH A  
GENERAL WARMING TREND AMID A LACK OF ANY STRONGER FRONTAL  
PASSAGES. BY THURSDAY, STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS  
EASTERN CO, WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN  
RESPONSE. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY AGAIN (HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO 70S), AND COULD AGAIN LEAD TO NEAR- CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS, WITH A VERY  
DEEP SURFACE LOW EMERGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A VERY VIGOROUS SYSTEM  
TRANSLATING VERY NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO FRIDAY  
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD EVEN BORDER ON HISTORIC WITH RESPECT TO  
MSLP, WITH A PORTION OF GUIDANCE CHALLENGING THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW  
MSLP FOR KLBF (974.9MB ON MAY 8, 1927) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE  
SURFACE LOW, WITH GROWING PROBABILITIES (30-50%+) OF WIDESPREAD  
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50MPH. ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS  
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW, WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO  
P-TYPE AND LOCATION, AS GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON THE TRACK OF THE  
DEEP SURFACE LOW. THAT SAID, ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES  
OCCUR WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS AND LEAD TO  
VERY LOW VISIBILITY, AND A THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BOTTOM  
LINE, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM FOR  
LATE NEXT WEEK, AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON,  
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN  
FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 TO  
30KTS NEAR THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ANTIOCH TO BARTLETT LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
(HIGHS IN MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S), VERY LOW HUMIDITY (10-15%), AND  
WEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR. THE PRIMARY  
AREA OF CONCERN (ANTIOCH TO BARTLETT LINE AND SOUTH) IS WHERE  
SNOWPACK FROM LATE LAST WEEK SNOWFALL HAS MELTED. FURTHER NORTH,  
LINGERING SNOWPACK SHOULD LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS  
AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE STILL EXPECTED.  
 
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
THEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES  
AND BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING. BY LATE WEEK, A STRONG STORM SYSTEM  
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AND COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WETTING  
MOISTURE. THAT SAID, VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP  
AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM  
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BROWN  
LONG TERM...BROWN  
AVIATION...BROWN  
FIRE WEATHER...BROWN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NE Page Main Text Page