747
FXUS63 KLBF 162356
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
556 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
TONIGHT, AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS
EVENING, MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS. WILL ALSO SEE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40.
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
MONDAY MORNING, TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. 20 TO 30
POPS INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH SOME WRAPAROUND POSSIBLE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION, WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS MONDAY HAVE TRENDED
COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH HIGHS 50 TO 55.
SUN RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BRING HIGHS OF 60 TO
65.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES ON
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. A CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST AND REACH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH, WITH PRECIPITATION PLACED ACROSS KANSAS.
THE ECMWF HAS A TRACK FURTHER NORTH, WHILE STILL SHOWING
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF AN
OGALLALA THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE
PWATS COULD REACH 0.75 INCH TO AN INCH, PER THE ECMWF. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM KEEP CONFIDENCE BELOW
AVERAGE, SHOWN BY NBM POPS ONLY FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
WITH THE REGION INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S TUESDAY, NEAR 60 WEDNESDAY, THEN
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY FRIDAY. MID 50S FORECAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
WEST-NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY.
AS OF THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN DEGRADED CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THUS HAVE CONFINED
MENTION TO VTN ONLY. DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE SO ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATER FORECASTS
ARE PROBABLE. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY MAY BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN, AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA, CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND DIRECTION OF WINDS REMAINS LIMITED.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...NMJ
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