050  
FXUS63 KLBF 192048  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
348 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019  
 
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS  
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, MODEST INSTABILITY  
AND SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE  
OF HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE  
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT EAST BEFORE BEGINNING TO WASH OUT THIS  
EVENING. THIS SHOULD SPELL THE END OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO CONVECTION MOVING  
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BELIEVE WITH  
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THESE TOO SHOULD WANE OUT BEFORE MOVING  
IN. A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DRIFT THROUGH THE  
AREA, BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD END BY EARLY  
EVENING. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE WEST TO NEAR 60  
IN THE EAST.  
 
FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT A WARMER DAY AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE  
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. IT'S THESE SAME WARM  
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA CAPPED AND DRY FOR THE DAYTIME  
HOURS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. DURING THE  
EVENING, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND SPARK OFF  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. STRONG  
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE THANKS IN PART TO THE 30-40 KNOT JET MAX AT  
H85 WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN  
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AGREE WITH THE SPC'S  
MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE  
LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTH AND EAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019  
 
BEGINNING 12Z FRIDAY. AREA BEGINS THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW  
WITH LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO THE  
WESTERN DAKOTAS. RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH  
STRONG H5 FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEBRASKA BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. MAIN  
FEATURE ACROSS MT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS  
IT DOES INTO FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP  
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS THE  
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AHEAD OF THIS  
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN A  
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SPC COVERS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES  
WITH A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THINK THERE WILL  
DEFINITELY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED HAILERS ACROSS THAT  
AREA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE, WINDS BEHIND THE  
FRONT MAY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25  
MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 80S SOUTH  
AND EAST.  
 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND  
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN SK STORM. AS THE SHORTWAVE  
DROPS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION IT CUTS OFF AND SLOWS ITS APPROACH  
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.  
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH  
PRESSURE, MODEST UPSLOPE OF HUMID AIR WILL BRING RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP A LOW-PRESSURE CENTER  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PUSH  
IT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. MAIN H5  
VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES TO END THE WEEKEND. BELIEVE THERE TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY  
TO REALIZE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA.  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRINGING MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGHS RETURN  
INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT STANDS NOW UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK TO  
BE IN PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
WEDNESDAY SEES THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT  
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB  
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME  
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
KLBF AND KVTN VICINITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 20Z.  
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THEREAFTER  
INTO EARLY EVENING. THEN, OVERNIGHT AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA  
INCLUDING KVTN. LOWER CEIINGS NEAR OVC035 MAY OCCUR AT KVTN BY 12Z  
THURSDAY AND ARE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JURGENSEN  
LONG TERM...JURGENSEN  
AVIATION...ROBERG  
 
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