580
FXUS63 KLBF 021120 AAA
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..AVIATION UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO LATE EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
RECENT GOES-16 WV AND RAP 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ENCOMPASSING THE
MIDWEST. FURTHER WEST OF THIS FEATURE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES WAS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW-
PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER. AT THE SURFACE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, SLOWLY TRACKING
SOUTHWARD. CLOSER TO HOME, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT 3 AM CT, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 61
DEGREES AT OGALLALA TO 65 DEGREES AT VALENTINE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED TODAY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
FROM COLORADO AND KANSAS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. TODAY'S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS INFLUX IN MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30KTS AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7C/KM COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF ~1,500 J/KG, A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GIVEN WEAK
FORCING AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED. GIVEN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL WHILE OTHERS
MAY SEE LITTLE TO NONE. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA. A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT (SPG) WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY
WITH GUSTS OF GENERALLY 25 MILES PER HOUR OR LESS. THESE BREEZY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING AS THE SPG WEAKENS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD, CENTERING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO MANITOBA, WHILE
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA,
FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. IN FACT, BOTH THE NAEFS AND ENS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS
THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE, SUGGESTING THAT THE MEAN PWAT WILL MEET
OR EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON SATURDAY. WPC HAS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS ACROSS THE AREA, ANY STORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
EXUBERATE ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
AN ALMOST RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN EVEN WEAKER FORCING AND LIFT AS
COMPARED TO TODAY OR FRIDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
TO BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPILLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHORT-LIVED.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF JUNE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA AND THIS
FLIGHT CONCERN WILL SPREAD NORTH THIS MORNING AFFECTING AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY
17Z-18Z THIS MORNING.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS SCNTL NEBRASKA WILL
MOVE NORTH AND EXIT NCNTL NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. THIS FLIGHT CONCERN
WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
WRN NEBRASKA 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
COMMENCE ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA AROUND 21Z AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS BY 00Z.
MVFR CEILINGS/IFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEBRASKA 09Z-12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...VIKEN
SHORT TERM...VIKEN
LONG TERM...VIKEN
AVIATION...CDC
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