361
FXUS63 KLBF 221732
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MEAGER AT BEST.
- MUCH COLDER AIR COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
FOR TODAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -10 TO
-5 C RANGE WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMALS (MID 40S)
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
ALTHOUGH, SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD SEE
HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW 40S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TEENS IN THE WEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EAST. SOME MODERATE
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA COULD
LOWER WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF US-83. AFTER SUNRISE, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE,
BRINGING A QUICK END TO THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES. STILL, THOSE
SENSITIVE TO THE COLD SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF OUT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMALS AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. HERE, ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S. FURTHER
TO THE EAST, SOME COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH LINGERING SNOW WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 30S. AFTER A FEW CHILLY NIGHTS, TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL(MID TEENS) BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WILL
PLACE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY, BECOMING BREEZY BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTH.
WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THE DECENT DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS, HIGHS WERE RAISED 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NBM FORECAST. THIS BROUGHT HIGHS MORE IN
LINE WITH MEX STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND 50 TO 75% ILE OF THE NBM.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS, MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SW NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST RH FALLS OFF TO 17 TO 22 PERCENT. ON WEDNESDAY, AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WILL FORCE A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO TUESDAY'S READINGS FOR THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER,
HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST, A RESULT OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BACKING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN,
THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM, THE BEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND ARE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AT
BEST. THE LATEST NBM HAS A 40 TO 50% CHANCE FOR 0.01" OF QPF
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHEN THIS THRESHOLD IS INCREASED TO 0.10",
PROBABILITIES FALL OFF TO LESS THAN 20%. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY AND
60S FRIDAY. WINDS FRIDAY MAY BECOME GUSTY AND THESE GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH REACHING
15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL PROBABLY END UP LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT A MINIMUM AND POSSIBLY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SATURDAY, THE LATEST CANADIAN AND EC DROP AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SOLN IS MUCH LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND ACTUALLY HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THE NBM ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR HIGHS
NEXT SATURDAY, THERE IS 31 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH(35)
AND 75TH%ILE(66) FOR HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE. THE LATEST NBM SOLN
HAS A HIGH AROUND 50 DEGREES SATURDAY WHICH IS RIGHT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. BELIEVE THIS IS PROBABLY A GOOD SPOT TO START FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY, HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE EC, GFS AND CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC SOLNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY MONDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BY CLEAR AFTER SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...MRS
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