015
FXUS63 KLBF 301851
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
151 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO NEAR 30, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY COLDER IN
THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 70S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FAVORED FOR RECEIVING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AND UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM 55 TO 60 NORTH, AND 60
TO 65 SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT, WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY AID IN LOWS FROM GETTING TO COLD TONIGHT. STILL,
SUBFREEZING LOWS NEAR 30 ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. ANY TENDER VEGETATION
SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS.
FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN NE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ELSEWHERE, GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
7.5 C/KM.
FRIDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA, WITH
SKIES BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
SOUTHWEST. LOWS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COLDER, MAINLY IN THE UPPER
20S. THIS COULD POSE A RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO TENDER
VEGETATION, AND A FREEZE HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED. CONFIDENCE IN A
FREEZE HEADLINE IS MEDIUM, AS MOS GUIDANCE HAS LOW FROM 30 TO 35 FOR
SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH A SUNNY SKY AND HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN NE
WARMING TO 70 TO 75. WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WEST, AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST.
SUNDAY, A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL RESIDE NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REACH NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO EASTERN CO,
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN. HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW AT 100-250 J/KG, AND ONLY A FEW GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT, WITH
NBM PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS (NORTH CENTRAL).
WILL AGAIN SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY REACHES 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS REMAIN A LIMITING
FACTOR.
MONDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE, WITH HIGHS
AGAIN REACHING THE 70S. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOOKS TO BE FAVORED AT THIS TIME, WHERE
NBM PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 40-50
PERCENT. WITH AT LEAST MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA, SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO EXIST AS WELL.
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UPPER RIDGING SHOWN TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS. AT THIS TIME, RADIATIONAL FOG DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AND
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...NMJ
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