923
FXUS63 KLBF 291155
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
555 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED BANDS
PRODUCING 1-2" OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE NOON.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY IN A COUPLE ROUNDS: ONE LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A COLD MORNING SATURDAY WHERE WIND CHILLS MAY THREATEN
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-20F), TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AREAS OF SNOW WILL DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LOCAL DOT CAMERAS SHOW QUICK ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS,
PARTICULARLY IN KEYA PAHA AND BOYD COUNTIES. RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS BEING OVERCOME UNDER HIGHER INTENSITY BANDS AND
NEBRASKA MESONET PLOTS SHOW THIS WELL. BETWEEN STATIONS NEAR THE
KEYA PAHA/CHERRY COUNTY BORDER AND WEST OF CROOKSTON, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (DEW POINTS) VARY BY NEARLY 40% (8F). ELSEWHERE,
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY CALM WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH THE
COLDEST VALUES IN THE EAST.
TODAY, INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL SHOULD PERSIST IN ITS CURRENT FOOTPRINT THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN BY MODEST FGEN AND STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) CENTERED AROUND H85. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD LIFT OF MOIST AIR ON THE 280K SURFACE THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z (NOON CST) BEFORE WANING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AT KONL HAVE
SHOWN WET BULBING IN PROCESS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BUT
INCREASING DEW POINTS. THIS POINTS TO INCREASING SNOWFALL
INTENSITIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY NEAR 1" OF SNOWFALL THROUGH MIDDAY, A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
WILL APPROACH 2" WITH ADDITIONAL BANDING POSSIBLE. HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR ACTIVE SNOWFALL CONCURRENT WITH < 2 STATUTE MILE
(SM) VISIBILITIES SHOW STEADY INCREASES BETWEEN 2-3AM CST AND 6AM
CST AND THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
INCREASE. MOST IF NOT ALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD CONCLUDE BY 9AM CST
WITH SNOWFALL LARGELY DISSIPATING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A REASONABLE BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE COLD
EAST AND WARMER WEST WILL AGAIN SPLIT WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MET/MAV GUIDANCE, UTILIZED THIS BLEND TO PRODUCE
MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST TO MIDDLE 20S NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF LULL IN SNOW,
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. MODERATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND THIS WILL
PROPEL THE STALLED BOUNDARY WEST, UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT, PARTICULARLY OFF THE EASTERN SLOPE
OF THE BLACK HILLS. LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP INTENSITIES FAIRLY LIGHT AS LIGHT
SNOW WORKS INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HREF PROBABILITIES ECHO THIS
THOUGHT WITH ONLY 40-50% POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING A TENTH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL PER HOUR ANYTIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRIMMED UP
POPS SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT WITH DRY CONDITIONS LARGELY EXPECTED SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 2 PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE POPS EXPAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA CLOSER TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS WILL VARY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DECREASES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOLLOWING THURSDAY
MORNING SNOW BUT INCREASES FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS PRODUCED
VALUES NEAR 0F IN OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. THOUGH SUB-
ZERO LOWS APPEAR POSSIBLE, WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL PRECLUDE
ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WITH THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, MOST OF WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD SEE SUB-FREEZING HIGHS ON
FRIDAY. APPROACHING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA BY LATER IN THE DAY AND THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL SHUNT
MOST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. AGAIN, CITING WEAK LIFT, ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY NEW SNOWFALL. COMBINING THIS
WITH LIGHT WINDS, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINOR AT WORST AND
DRIVEN BY POSSIBLE SLICK ROADS. AS THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY, TIMING WILL FAVOR A MODERATELY COLD
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BELOW 0F EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ON TOP OF
THIS, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE FEATURE DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN. WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST PROBABILITIES OF FALLING
BELOW -15F REACH ABOUT 40-70% FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. GUT-FEELING IS COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TO
ADDRESS THIS BUT AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, OPTED
TO WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST PACKAGE OR TWO BEING PERIOD 4.
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PROMOTE WAA ACROSS
THE REGION. WITHIN A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY FORM ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME.
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +/1 2C OF THE FREEZING MARK, PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY VARY ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR AND EAST WHILE AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IF NOT ALL RAIN
IS FORECAST TO THE WEST. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
LESS THAN A HALF INCH APPEARS LIKELY WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF THE
SAME AT OR BELOW 40%. THE INITIAL PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL BE THE
START OF A WARM UP THAT LASTS INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO
THE UPPER 40S IN THE WEST BUT HOLD IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE EAST.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID-
RANGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND TUESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE AREA BUT POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES (< 25%) ARE IN PLACE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP APPEARS LIKELY. NBM
25TH PERCENTILE OUTPUT SHOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH STRONG +2-3 SIGMA
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH GENERAL
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TYPE OF SETUP TENDS TO
PRODUCE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND EXPLAINS WHY NBM 75TH PERCENTILE OUTPUT
IS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70F FOR NORTH PLATTE. WHILE IT'S TOO EARLY TO
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT A
70F DAY THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WOULD BE THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE
OF 70F AT NORTH PLATTE SINCE 2020. THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH AS THE LATEST CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK SHOWS 60% PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-14 DAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LIGHT SNOW AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SNOW FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT
BROADENING TO WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF VTN FOR NOW OUTSIDE OF VCSH FOR MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE CARRYING PREVAILING -SN TONIGHT. FOR LBF, HAVE NO MENTION
UNTIL THIS EVENING BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF
ACTIVE SNOWFALL, CIGS WILL PROMOTE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
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