366
FXUS63 KLBF 151726
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, DUE TO NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE MINOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ABOVE
0.10 INCHES REMAINS LOW.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATTM, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS TUESDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD LOW AMPLITUDE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. NORTH OF THIS ZONAL FLOW,
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM EASTERN ARIZONA, NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING. EAST OF THIS RIDGE, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WAS AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THIS
TROUGH, A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN TEXAS, EAST INTO LOUISIANA, WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT, SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH OR CALM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 25 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE THIS EVENING,
THE DETERMINISTIC NAM FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS H85 TEMPS RUNNING
.5 TO 2 C ABOVE TEMPS AT 21Z SATURDAY. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO A 1
TO 4 DEGREE INCREASE IN EXPECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY'S HIGHS. THE NBM INITIALIZED WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST H85 TEMPS AND WHAT WAS IN THE
STATISTICAL MET AND MAV TONIGHT, BLENDED IN THE 50TH PERCENTILE
ENSEMBLE NBM FORECAST FOR HIGHS. THIS BROUGHT READINGS INTO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE FORECAST HIGHS OF 69 FOR NORTH
PLATTE AND VALENTINE WOULD BE RECORD BREAKING WITH THE CURRENT
RECORDS OF 67 AND 66 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
RECORD HIGHS FOR BROKEN BOW AND IMPERIAL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY AND FEEL FORECAST HIGHS WILL FALL SHORT OF THESE RECORDS
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THERE IS GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 25 MPH PER THE
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. FELT THE NBM FORECAST WINDS WERE ON THE
LOW SIDE AND BLENDED IN SOME 75TH PERCENTILE WINDS TO BRING UP
WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDING DATA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLE
LEADING TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS INTO NEBRASKA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND LOWS WILL REACH INTO UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS MONDAY, THEY SHOULD RUN 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAYS HIGHS BASED ON THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NBM WAS AGAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE NBM FORECAST AND BLENDED IN SOME 50%ILE NBM TO BRING
HIGHS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDED
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
RECORDS FOR MONDAY ARE 72, 72, 73 AND 76 FOR NORTH PLATTE,
VALENTINE, BROKEN BOW AND IMPERIAL RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, WE WILL BE 1 TO 4 DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE UPPER-TROUGH WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. LEEWARD CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED GULF MOISTURE/HUMIDITY WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S (PERHAPS LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 183) OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, A VERY MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED, WITH LOWS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
ATTENTION BECOMES FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER-TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST. EFI INDEX SIGNALING OF
POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG GUSTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83. THE AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE EXTREMELY DRY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL IF NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A QUICK MOVING, POTENT UPPER-TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. CHANCES LOOKING BETTER FOR AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE (30-50%) OF SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE
OF QPF ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 (BEST CHANCES NORTHERN NEBRASKA).
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND
RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WINDS CALMING BY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE OVERNIGHT ON POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY STABLE AIR ALOFT, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WIDESPREAD
MINIMUM RH OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. EAST OF THIS
ROUTE, GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 25 MPH APPEARS MORE LIKELY. DRY
BOUNDARY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT WITH RH RECOVERY
REACHING 50 TO 70 PERCENT WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYES CENTER TO
THEDFORD AND BUTTE. EAST OF THIS LINE, RH RECOVERY OF 60 TO 80
PERCENT IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS, MINIMUM RH WILL ONCE AGAIN
REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT MONDAY SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE FROM
NORTHERN WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL FORCE A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
A DECENT SURFACE TROUGH MIDDAY. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH,
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR (SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEENS
DEW POINTS IN THE WEST) WILL SETTLE INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
TRENDS HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 TUESDAY. WITH THE CURRENT RED
FLAG HEADLINES IN PLACE AND WITH THIS BEING 60 + HOURS OUT, WILL
FORGO FIRE HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY RED FLAG HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY COULD
SEE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON RH REACHES 15 TO 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN
TUESDAY'S FORECAST WINDS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...RICHIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page