703  
FXUS63 KLBF 082339  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
539 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR  
MUCH OF THE REGION AS WET ROADS FREEZE.  
 
- SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AROUND HIGHWAY 20  
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS ON THE HORIZON FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES  
ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ACROSS  
NORTHERN NEBRASKA NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, WHILE LIGHTER  
SNOW IS WRAPPING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND LIGHT FREEZING AND  
FREEZING DRIZZLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.  
 
THE BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS BEING DRIVEN BY  
DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE  
LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD, THIS BAND WILL PIVOT OVER  
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING.  
LOCATIONS NEAR WHERE THE BAND PIVOTS WILL SEE TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF  
WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. THE LIGHT SNOW WRAPPING BACK  
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE EPHEMERAL AND  
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE  
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST  
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF  
HIGHWAY 183.  
 
THE NET RESULT OF THIS WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE SLICK TRAVEL  
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST IMPROVEMENT CAN  
BE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES  
LATE TODAY WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY MOST OTHER  
LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE OUT OF  
THE 20S. THIS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT MELTING AND WITH OVERNIGHT  
LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ANY ROADS THAT REMAIN WET  
AND/OR SNOW COVERED WILL LIKELY REFREEZE TONIGHT WITH SLICK TRAVEL  
CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
BELIEVE IT WILL BE BEST TO LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES PLAY OUT  
THROUGH 6PM CST AND REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR A CONTINUATION OF  
HEADLINES OR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT TO COVER  
REFREEZING.  
 
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT TO BRING MUCH  
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING  
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S AROUND THE NIOBRARA VALLEY TO AROUND 50  
DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
FAR AND AWAY, THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ALL HAZARDS WINTER STORM TO AFFECT  
THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GENERALLY  
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FOR SEVERAL DAYS  
SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR A SYSTEM SEVERAL DAYS OUT,  
THOUGH IMPORTANT DETAILS REMAIN TO BE RESOLVED.  
 
A COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF WARM, MOIST  
AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED  
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE AXIS OF THE  
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST WHERE ANY  
SEVERE THREAT MAY MANIFEST ITSELF. THE LOW LOOKS TO LINGER OVER  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING  
SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH VERY  
STRONG WINDS, BEFORE IT SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON  
WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE STORM WITH  
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS IN THE DAYS AHEAD BUT FOR NOW PLAN ON  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ROUGHLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH  
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR TERMINALS  
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE  
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO  
NORTH. ALL SN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LINGERING  
MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE  
TOMORROW, WITH TERMINALS EAST OF AN ANW TO BBW LINE REMAINING IN  
LOWERED CATEGORIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR TERMINALS WEST OF THIS  
LINE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOMORROW.  
 
WINDS REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTHERLY  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AT AROUND 10 TO 15KTS.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR  
NEZ004>010-023>029-036>038-094.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ059-  
070-071.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MBS  
SHORT TERM...MBS  
LONG TERM...MBS  
AVIATION...BROWN  
 
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