891
FXUS63 KLBF 141131
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
CAMERAS AND SATELLITE REVEAL A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF FOG IS
DEVELOPING THAN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. A FORECAST UPDATE IS IN
PLACE FOR THIS FEATURE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS THIS MORNING LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG. THE FOG FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHORT TERM MODEL BLEND WHICH MAINTAINS FOG ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THE PROSPECT OF
DENSE FOG IS UNCERTAIN BUT GIVEN THE CALIBER OF DRYING SHOWN IN THE
MODEL, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.
THE NEXT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ID AND WY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SPARKING STORMS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AROUND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS SOONER GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH TEMPERATURES AT H700MB AROUND 2C. THIS STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, NERN COLO,
NWRN KS AND PERHAPS SWRN NEBRASKA DEPENDING ON STEERING WINDS.
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE STRONG SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT LAPSE RATES IN THE RAP MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE
BECOME LESS STEEP SINCE THURSDAY SUGGESTING A LOWER OVERALL SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, SPC SUGGESTED A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM
RISK TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA AND THIS IS PROBABLY WARRANTED GIVEN
THE COLD AIR ALOFT, STRONG WINDS AND THE ABILITY FOR STRONG HEATING
TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY LATE
SATURDAY AFFECTING WRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
CARRYING A COMPACT H700MB LOW INTO NERN WY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG, NEAR 40KTS AT H500MB WHICH COULD SUPPORT
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS BUT SPC AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS ARE HOLDING
THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE HIGHER CAPE BUT
WEAKER SHEARED SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE OF TIMING-
THE STORMS PREDICTED ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA SATURDAY ARE OCCURRING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A STATIONARY FRONT COULD BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
KS-NEB BORDER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A H700MB
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE SD-NEB BORDER SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LIFT A
WARM FRONT INTO WRN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LIMITED HEATING DUE
TO MORNING STRATUS WOULD SEEM TO BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR
INSTABILITY. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE AND
MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL BE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR ORDINARY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SPC WILL HOLD THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MOSTLY SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
ACROSS COLORADO AND KS SUNDAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH A SFC FRONT
LOCATED ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER.
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BECOME WEAK-THE RESULT OF AN
UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF OR-WA, DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE CNTL ROCKIES AND BE LOCATED OVER COLO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WEAK
RESULTANT SHEAR, PRESUMABLY NEGATING ANY SORT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THIS COULD BE AN EXCELLENT SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
BUT WPC MAINTAINS THIS HAZARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE GFS AND ECM,
HOWEVER, SHOW SOME HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS CNTL AND ERN NEBRASKA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
LOW STRATUS AND FOG STILL REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN STORMS MOVING ACROSS KLBF OR KVTN
TERMINAL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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