733
FXUS63 KLBF 131900
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIODS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND GUSTY WINDS, THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NE. HAVE EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINING FIRE ZONES ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
TONIGHT, AN H85 JET WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS UP AT 20 TO 35 MPH FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 61
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THERE WILL ALSO BE BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE
A MODEST INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
WEST.
THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS A SUBTLE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA AND A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING FURTHER WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH AND THE
LOWER 90S SOUTH. A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM
NEAR AINSWORTH THROUGH IMPERIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20 TO LOW 30S BEHIND THE DRYLINE, WITH
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TO THE EAST. MIN RH WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15
PERCENT NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WEST OF
MULLEN THROUGH OGALLALA. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING TODAY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS, PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
MESOSCALE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DRY, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRANT THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THIS COULD OCCUR
IF THE DRYLINE STALLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE ABLE TO
BREAK TO CAP. STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORM AS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V.
THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST AS DEWPOINTS
FALL INTO THE LOW 20S WEST AND MID 20 TO MID 30S EAST. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOWS FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST AND
10 TO 15 PERCENT EAST. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE
SHOWN TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS TO AROUND 15 MPH MOST AREAS,
THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NE SOUTH ACROSS KS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SATURDAY, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NE ALONG WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. PWATS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 0.75 INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NE. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE H5 FLOW IS SHOWN TO
MOVE ACROSS CO AND SWRN KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WERE LOWERED TO THE LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT, LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE. NBM MEAN QPF SATURDAY NIGHT IS ABOVE
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS, TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH PARTS OF SWRN NE.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MT, SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES MAY REACH
TO AROUND 1500 J/KG, WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH MAY POSE A BETTER THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83, IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
THE EXACT SEVERE THREATS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, DUE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS.
MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. COULD SEE COLD LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A WARMUP INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 NEXT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS
WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA
TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. BY EVENING, THE STRONG GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NE. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, AS CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY TO REMAIN
NEAR 15K FEET AGL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND GUSTY WINDS, THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT FOR ZONES 209 AND 219. EXTENDED THE RED
FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
REMAINING FIRE ZONES 204, 206, AND 210 ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO
THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THURSDAY.
TONIGHT, AN H85 JET WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS UP AT 20 TO 35 MPH FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 61
OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
AINSWORTH THROUGH IMPERIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 20 TO LOW 30S BEHIND THE DRYLINE, WITH UPPER 30S TO MID
40S TO THE EAST. AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, MIN RH
WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS WEST OF MULLEN THROUGH OGALLALA. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG
WARNING TODAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS, PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST AS DEWPOINTS
FALL INTO THE LOW 20S WEST AND MID 20 TO MID 30S EAST. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOWS FROM NEAR 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST AND
10 TO 15 PERCENT EAST. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS HOWEVER
ARE SHOWN TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS TO AROUND 15 MPH MOST
AREAS, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS (ZONE 204) WILL GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH. WILL MONITOR IF WINDS TREND UPWARD FOR A POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ204-206-210.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ209-219.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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