703
FXUS63 KLBF 082339
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
539 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION AS WET ROADS FREEZE.
- SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AROUND HIGHWAY 20
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS ON THE HORIZON FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, WHILE LIGHTER
SNOW IS WRAPPING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND LIGHT FREEZING AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.
THE BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS BEING DRIVEN BY
DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE
LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD, THIS BAND WILL PIVOT OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING.
LOCATIONS NEAR WHERE THE BAND PIVOTS WILL SEE TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. THE LIGHT SNOW WRAPPING BACK
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE EPHEMERAL AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183.
THE NET RESULT OF THIS WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST IMPROVEMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES
LATE TODAY WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE OUT OF
THE 20S. THIS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT MELTING AND WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ANY ROADS THAT REMAIN WET
AND/OR SNOW COVERED WILL LIKELY REFREEZE TONIGHT WITH SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.
BELIEVE IT WILL BE BEST TO LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES PLAY OUT
THROUGH 6PM CST AND REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR A CONTINUATION OF
HEADLINES OR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT TO COVER
REFREEZING.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT TO BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S AROUND THE NIOBRARA VALLEY TO AROUND 50
DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
FAR AND AWAY, THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ALL HAZARDS WINTER STORM TO AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FOR SEVERAL DAYS
SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR A SYSTEM SEVERAL DAYS OUT,
THOUGH IMPORTANT DETAILS REMAIN TO BE RESOLVED.
A COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF WARM, MOIST
AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST WHERE ANY
SEVERE THREAT MAY MANIFEST ITSELF. THE LOW LOOKS TO LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS, BEFORE IT SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE STORM WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS IN THE DAYS AHEAD BUT FOR NOW PLAN ON
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ROUGHLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR TERMINALS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. ALL SN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LINGERING
MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE
TOMORROW, WITH TERMINALS EAST OF AN ANW TO BBW LINE REMAINING IN
LOWERED CATEGORIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR TERMINALS WEST OF THIS
LINE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOMORROW.
WINDS REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AT AROUND 10 TO 15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ004>010-023>029-036>038-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ059-
070-071.
SYNOPSIS...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...BROWN
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