486
FXUS63 KLBF 092015
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF AN ANTIOCH TO BARTLETT LINE WHERE LINGERING
SNOWPACK HAS MELTED. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING A
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS. A THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALSO
EXISTS, THOUGH THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND WITHIN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN TO BECOME WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA, AND WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS IS DUE TO IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL MIXING, WITH DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS APPROACHING H7 OR DEEPER. THIS WILL HAVE TWO IMPACTS. THE
FIRST IS THAT THIS WILL PROMOTE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOWNWARDS, AND
WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SECOND IS DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT, WITH WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS
35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S IN SNOW
FREE AREAS, AND THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES,
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING COLD ADVECTION, AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT THEN QUICKLY PUSHING INTO THE
SANDHILLS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY. HIGHS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A CONSEQUENCE.
BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN PERSISTS INTO MIDWEEK, WITH A
GENERAL WARMING TREND AMID A LACK OF ANY STRONGER FRONTAL
PASSAGES. BY THURSDAY, STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS
EASTERN CO, WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN
RESPONSE. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY AGAIN (HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO 70S), AND COULD AGAIN LEAD TO NEAR- CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS, WITH A VERY
DEEP SURFACE LOW EMERGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A VERY VIGOROUS SYSTEM
TRANSLATING VERY NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD EVEN BORDER ON HISTORIC WITH RESPECT TO
MSLP, WITH A PORTION OF GUIDANCE CHALLENGING THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW
MSLP FOR KLBF (974.9MB ON MAY 8, 1927) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW, WITH GROWING PROBABILITIES (30-50%+) OF WIDESPREAD
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50MPH. ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW, WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
P-TYPE AND LOCATION, AS GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DEEP SURFACE LOW. THAT SAID, ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS AND LEAD TO
VERY LOW VISIBILITY, AND A THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BOTTOM
LINE, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK, AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN
FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 TO
30KTS NEAR THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ANTIOCH TO BARTLETT LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S), VERY LOW HUMIDITY (10-15%), AND
WEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR. THE PRIMARY
AREA OF CONCERN (ANTIOCH TO BARTLETT LINE AND SOUTH) IS WHERE
SNOWPACK FROM LATE LAST WEEK SNOWFALL HAS MELTED. FURTHER NORTH,
LINGERING SNOWPACK SHOULD LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE STILL EXPECTED.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
THEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING. BY LATE WEEK, A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AND COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WETTING
MOISTURE. THAT SAID, VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
FIRE WEATHER...BROWN
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