339
FXUS63 KLBF 092318
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET CONDITIONS LEADING TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A GENERALLY QUIET END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN KEEPING ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOUTH OF NEBRASKA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING A RETURN TO
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ON BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WHILE TOMORROW APPEARS MARGINAL AS FAR AS FIRE
CONCERNS GO, CONFIDENCE IN REACHING NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT WEST OF US-83 AND WESTERLY WINDS GUST UP TO 35 MPH. AS
FUELS REMAIN RELATIVELY CRISPY, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A
FIRE HEADLINE HOISTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR FRIDAY.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE FRONT RANGES OF WYOMING. AS THIS
LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA, A COLD FRONT WILL GET DRAGGED ACROSS
NEBRASKA. INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
INITIALLY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISCRETE IN NATURE WITH A VERY
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONGEAL INTO A LINE BECOMING MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND TRACK. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT A SMIDGEN WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SMALL WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. IF THE FRONT PLACEMENT CHANGES IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED, EITHER ALLOWING FOR A LARGER WINDOW, OR EVEN SHORTENING IT
TO COMPLETELY DIMINISH THE SEVERE RISK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES AND MAKE FORECAST CHANGES AS
WARRANTED.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL PUSH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 24 TO 28 C RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGHS TO EASILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY EVENING, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A "FALL LIKE" DAY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS
SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL FEEL MUCH QUITE
COMFORTABLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ACROSS WYOMING. THIS WILL TURN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW (WINDS)
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S THROUGH
THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. A
WARM FRONT WILL SHARPEN EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
ACROSS KANSAS AND NOSES INTO THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, APPEARS TO BE A
FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. PARAMETERS ARE THERE FOR SEVERE, SO THIS POTENTIAL
SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COOLER,
DRIER AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING COULD FALL TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 10TH PERCENTILE LOWS ARE IN THE MID 30S, SO DOESN'T
APPEAR THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST FROST. WARMER THEN WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. AT KVTN, WINDS WILL BE
22015G24KT AFTER 16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT KLBF, WINDS WILL
BE 18014G24KT AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
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