937
FXUS63 KLBF 240657
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
157 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WETTING
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH LIKELY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THE SYSTEM BELOW
AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY, A SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS EVIDENT
ON WATER-VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH 700-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA,
SUPPORTING THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.44 INCHES, NEAR THE DAILY
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND INDICATIVE OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE,
DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE, HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.50 INCH. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN ADVANCING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE 00Z HREF CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.50
INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE TO
BROKEN BOW TO ONEILL LINE. WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHERE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
PERSIST, WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
FRIDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH
HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE,
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, FAVORING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS. WITH LIMITED
MUCAPE AND THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
AREA, PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. LINGERING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALSO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FARTHER WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD,
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S, AS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EJECT INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN-
STREAM DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION, TAKING
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT AND
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS SATURDAY
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOME GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, WINDS CURRENTLY APPEAR LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
MAY SET UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, WHILE EASTERN AREAS ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST, AND MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LIKELY
POPS MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS FASTER, PROGRESSING
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND SUPPORTS A MORE LENGTHY POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AS IT
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION IS
BELOW AVERAGE.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S, TO UPPER 70S FAR SOUTHWEST SHOULD
COOL INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. ATTM THE BULK OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL, HOWEVER, PERIODS OF RAIN WILL IMPACT THE KLBF TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: CEILINGS
WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS BELOW 1000 FT AGL SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE AND REMAIN THERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT PERIODIC VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 5 SM WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY WITH BROKEN CEILINGS RANGING FROM 6000 TO 10000
FT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page