784
FXUS63 KLBF 121152
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
552 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
WARMEST FORECAST TEMPERATURES, LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS TONIGHT. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. FURTHER WEST, A BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM TEXAS NORTH INTO NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST, CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANSISCO
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW TO
APPROXIMATELY 700 MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT HAD A BROAD PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA,
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME OF THIS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAD MADE IT FURTHER EAST INTO NEBRASKA, KANSAS AND
THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WERE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 2
AM CT RANGED FROM 25 DEGREES AT GORDON TO 40 DEGREES AT
O'NEILL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MID MORNING. IN THIS FEATURES
WAKE, A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE FORCED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK AT BEST,
HOWEVER, NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FACILITATE
DECENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3C IN
THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 8C IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 50S SEEMS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY REACH
NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOWER 60S FOR LBF AND IML THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BOOST HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM INITIALIZED
FORECAST, HOWEVER, HIGHS WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW MET AND MAV
NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PLAY A
FACTOR IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE EAST AND WARMEST IN THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN COLORADO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG WITH ADVECTING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH A GOOD THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THIS FORCING WILL
APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD LOW END CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOME MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,
MAINLY TO LOWER POPS BASED ON THE LATEST QPF FORECASTS AND THE
LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE FORECAST. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST ONLY
HAS ABOUT A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE (0.01") OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT OVER FRONTIER AND SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. THIS PROBABILITY FALLS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
FOR 0.05" OF QPF. THAT BEING SAID, LIMITED POPS TO 25 TO 35
PERCENT FOR FRONTIER COUNTY AND LIMITED POPS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO BROKEN BOW. IF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM,
POPS WILL HAVE TO BE DECREASED SHARPLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS, WILL REALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. BASES MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 10KFT AGL
BUT WILL NOT BE OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS.
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...NMJ
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