784
FXUS63 KLBF 151001
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARRIVE TODAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EVEN STRONGER
WINDS TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
- A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGINS ON
SATURDAY AS WELL LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMING BACK UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS RISING BACK
INTO THE 50S. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET,
BUT THE RELIEF WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. GUSTS UP TO 55 TO 65 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF EVEN SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH AT TIMES. HAVE
KEPT THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW, BUT AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE, THIS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST CYCLE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE DIFFICULTIES DRIVING
AS WELL AS DOWNED POWERLINES AND TREES ACROSS THE REGION. USE
CAUTION TRAVELING ON FRIDAY AND PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS, THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OVER TO THE EAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COULD GRAZE EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WHILE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER
AN INCH, WHEN COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR.
IF TRAVELING ON FRIDAY BE SURE TO ALLOW FOR EXTRA TRAVEL TIME AND BE
PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, COLDER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES -13 TO -22 C RANGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE MID TEENS IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO A CONCERN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH SOME
LINGERING STRONGER WINDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
EASILY DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 20
BELOW IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE COLD HEADLINES
ARE NOT IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME, IT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST RUNS AS THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN CHILLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY ON SATURDAY, THEY BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS, INITIALLY AS
LLWS BUT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. WIND SHEAR OF
MAGNITUDES EXCEEDING 45 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, PARTICULARLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH PEAK SPEEDS IN THE 30
TO 40 KNOT RANGE, WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 45 KNOTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. LOWER CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ARRIVES
WITH A LATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THUS WILL OMIT
MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONG. HUMIDITY WILL
DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP TO 55
TO 60 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE REGION WILL NOT QUITE BE
REACHING CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS, DRY FUELS, AND MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ZONES (ZONE
219 AND 210) FOR THE TIME BEING. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS, IT MAY BE UPGRADED IN UPCOMING FORECAST
CYCLES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ210-219.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...KULIK
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