609
FXUS63 KLBF 251151
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
551 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH MORNING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH VALUES FALLING BELOW -20F.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61, WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
MORNING SATELLITE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POSITIVE TILT LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS,
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY SHUNTING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR TO THE
AREA TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES HAVE TANKED WITH MANY SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE REPORTS.
WITH THESE VALUES, ANY LIGHT WIND IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANTLY COLD
WIND CHILL READINGS WHICH HAS PROMPTED A LATE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AROUND
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL SHARPLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH AIR
TEMPERATURES MAY SEE A SLIGHT CLIMB, THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS MAY
PROLONG WIND CHILLS BELOW -15F ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANDING THE EXISTING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TO THE NE/SD BORDER BUT THIS THREAT WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED GOING FORWARD. MODEST FGEN AROUND H85-H7 WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL, THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOW WITH ROUGHLY A 50% PROBABILITY
OF SEEING MEASURABLE SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. ELSEWHERE, NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH A SLIGHT DIURNAL BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, IT'LL BE PLENTY COLD WITH
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF THE PLATTE VALLEY AND
MIDDLE TEENS TO THE SOUTH. FACTORING IN THE WINDS AND WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING WITH IT MUCH COLDER AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL BELOW 0F WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING -10F. AS WE GET CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIVE WIND
CHILL VALUES ONCE AGAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (-20F). WIDESPREAD
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES HAS PROMPTED ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOCAL AREA. AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH
SUSTAINED, A FEW LOCATIONS MAY THREATEN EXTREME COLD WARNING
CRITERIA (-30F) IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. AT THIS TIME, WILL DEFER
ANY POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO LATER FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. REGARDLESS IF IT'S AN ADVISORY OR WARNING, THE CONDITIONS
WILL BE DANGEROUS TO BE OUT IN SO FOLKS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ADEQUATE
PRECAUTIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND PROPEL A WARM FRONT OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTEWORTHY WARM UP WITH FORECAST
HIGHS SUGGESTING ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD EXCEED
THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MULTIPLE DAYS. GIVEN THE
WARMING WEST WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH. THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY IS MAGNITUDE OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DROP. DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY SPLIT ON PRECISE MOISTURE QUALITY AND
NBM DEW POINT STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 4-7F. MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS, SUCH AS HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE, SUGGEST GREATER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THAT MAY WARRANT HEADLINES. FOR NOW, WILL
DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS CITING THIS UNCERTAINTY.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER SLIGHT COOLDOWN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST CHANGES
TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. IT'S THESE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AGAIN WITH MIDDLE 40S FURTHER
SOUTHWEST. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPERATURES RECOVER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THAT SAID, NBM SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH INNER-QUARTILE
RANGES EXCEEDING 20F+ EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS. THE MAIN CORE OF COLD AIR WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT HOW FAR WEST SOME OF THESE UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST THE COLD AIR
REACHES. EVEN AS TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS IN QUESTION,
SCANT MOISTURE MEANS THAT EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WESTERLY
SOLUTIONS KEEP A LARGELY DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS AND POTENTIALLY -SN TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
TERMINALS. DID ADD A MENTION OF -SN AT VTN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH SO IMPACTS REMAIN
LIMITED. LOWER CIGS WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, THE SNOW THREAT IS LOWER AND HAVE KEPT
VFR CONDITIONS AT LBF. LATE TONIGHT, SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-022-023-035>038-056>059-069>071.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-
056>059-069>071-094.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
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