292
FXUS63 KLBF 262334
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST INTO THIS
EVENING.
-MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
-HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
TONIGHT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS, SPECIFICALLY FIRE ZONES 204 AND 210 WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ON SATURDAY, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
INTO EARLY EVENING. CAPE VALUES WILL BE FROM 500 TO AROUND 1000
J/KG IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
BETTER AS DEW POINTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW AN INVERTED-V WITH DEEP MIXING TO ABOVE 600MB. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING,
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. DRY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY
RANGE FROM A TRACE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH, ALTHOUGH LOCAL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH A HALF INCH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT, AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 30-35KTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH THE 60S NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AREAS EAST OF GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE
ARE FORECAST IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH COVERAGE LOOK
MORE ISOLATED.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON MONDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT COULD MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY, THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER. THE SOUTHWEST IS
LIKELY TO AGAIN SURPASS 100 DEGREES WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, THOUGH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT AS HIGHS STILL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. MOST DAYS WILL
REMAIN DRY, WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KTS, SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT AT 10KTS OR LESS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS FIRE ZONES 204
AND 210 WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. FINE FUELS ARE LIKELY CURED AND LIVE FUEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY LIMITED DUE TO RECENT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS
FIRE ZONES 206 AND 208. THE THREAT FOR ANY DRY LIGHTNING SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO SHERIDAN COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS.
SATURDAY, HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WHILE HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. FIRE STARTS FROM
LIGHTNING ARE A CONCERN, ALONG WITH STRONG, ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
ANY STORMS.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH 90S TO LOW 100S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
83.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-210.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...VIKEN
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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