903
FXUS63 KLBF 231126
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTL NEBRASKA WARRANTS A FORECAST
UPDATE USING THE SREF WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WPC CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS BY ABOUT 50% AND LESS THAN
1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN EDGE OF NCNTL NEBRASKA.
THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE TRAJECTORY OF RETURN MOISTURE AND
THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING WHICH FAVORS THE MISSOURI BASIN AND
AREAS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE BEST RAINFALL. FOR THESE
REASONS, POPS ARE LIMITED TO 20 TO 50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS
ACROSS NCNTL NEBRASKA. THE ECM, RAP AND GFS KEEP WRN NEBRASKA DRY OR
WITH JUST TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE MUCH
WETTER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY LEANS ON THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TO SUPPORT A FORECAST NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM.
TONIGHT'S LOWS USE THE SHORT TERM MODEL BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION
AND ARE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE. THIS IS BASED ON
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY SORT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. ANY RAIN WHICH DEVELOPS
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES NEGATIVELY.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING NRN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WPC CUT
BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS BY ABOUT 50% AND LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN EDGE OF NCNTL NEBRASKA. THIS
IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE TRAJECTORY OF RETURN MOISTURE AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING WHICH FAVORS THE MISSOURI BASIN AND AREAS
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE BEST RAINFALL. FOR THESE REASONS,
POPS ARE LIMITED TO 20 TO 50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NCNTL NEBRASKA. THE ECM, RAP AND GFS KEEP WRN NEBRASKA DRY OR WITH
JUST TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE MUCH
WETTER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY LEANS ON THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TO SUPPORT A FORECAST NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM.
TONIGHT'S LOWS USE THE SHORT TERM MODEL BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION
AND ARE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE. THIS IS BASED ON
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY SORT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. ANY RAIN WHICH DEVELOPS
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES NEGATIVELY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
A PORTION OF THE ENERGY OPERATING WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SWING SOUTH AND THROUGH THE WRN U.S.
ARRIVING IN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS THE BASIS
FOR CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CALIBER
OF THE MOISTURE RETURN- DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND A SUBTROPICAL
TAP STREAMING NORTH THROUGH OLD MEXICO AND TEXAS, CONFIDENCE IN
1/4 INCH OR GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA
IS MODERATE.
A PERIOD OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION JUXTAPOSED WITH RETURN MOISTURE
ACROSS CNTL NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT IS THE BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL
FORECAST WHICH INCLUDES THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB HEIGHTS FALLS FROM A
FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE WEATHER PROCEDURES
USING THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SCNTL OR EVEN SWRN NEBRASKA COULD BE
AREAS OF INTEREST FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS
REASON, SPC HAS OUTLOOKED PARTS OF SRN NEBRASKA FOR SEVERE WEATHER
NEXT TUESDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. H850-700MB WINDS ARE
30-50KTS BOTH DAYS BACKED BY 500M AGL WINDS OF 20 TO 30+KTS. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT, SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LOCALLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOW STRATUS EXPANDS THIS
EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS FOR TERMINALS
GENERALLY EAST OF A SNY TO GRN LINE. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR INCLUSION AT
LBF/VTN AT THIS TIME. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS ANTICIPATED.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROWN
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