749  
FXUS63 KLBF 250517  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
1117 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
MONDAY, RESULTING IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNING FOR  
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEB TODAY, FIRE WEATHER WATCH TOMORROW FOR  
SOUTHWEST.  
 
- POWERFUL COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING A SUDDEN RETURN TO  
WINTER WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MINOR  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEB.  
 
- MILD AND FAIR CONDITIONS COME BACK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK  
WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
NEBRASKA LIES IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE  
RETREATS TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND A MORE SUBTLE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE PRIMARY EAST COAST TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE,  
A COOL FRONT TURNED WARM FRONT HAS STALLED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA,  
WHILE A MEANDERING TROUGH EXTENDS UP THE HIGH PLAINS, CUTTING ACROSS  
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN  
OBSERVED (THROUGH 21Z) AT IML AND BBW, WITH SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS  
APPROACHING CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... NORTHWEST WINDS RELAX AFTER SUNSET AS  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND THE SURFACE INVERSION GROWS. FLOW  
AT H85 GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT, SO THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW  
ROGUE GUSTS DURING THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. THE REGION REMAINS  
MOISTURE STARVED, AND THE ONLY CLOUDS SHOULD SKIRT THE NORTHEAST  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE 12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL  
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING, TRENDED TOWARD THE COOL  
END OF THE NBM ENVELOPE ONCE AGAIN. THE FORECAST FALLS IN BETWEEN  
MAV/MET/ECS SOLUTIONS AND THE 25%ILE OF NBM. ONE FACTOR TO CONSIDER  
IS WEAK WAA AT H85 WITH ROUGHLY 3C RISES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MIN  
TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 20S IN THE PANHANDLE AND PLATTE VALLEY TO  
LOWER 30S NORTH CENTRAL. DESPITE THE RELAXED WINDS, FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS DON'T COMPLETELY ALLEVIATE. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL LIKELY  
BE LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, GENERALLY 55-65% MAX VALUES, AND  
WILL JUMP START THE RED FLAG RISK FOR TOMORROW.  
 
TOMORROW... THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE SOUTHERN US, WHILE THE  
TROUGH BROADENS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. FLOW NEARLY  
BECOMES ZONAL FOR NEBRASKA, BUT SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED WARMTH  
REMAINS. THE STALLED WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA KICKS EAST,  
AND A COLD FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS HAS YET TO DROP SOUTH. THE MODEST  
WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME AT H85 KEEPS GOING WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3C  
RISE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS. TEMPS RANGE FROM 7-12C,  
WHICH WHEN EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND AIDED BY PLENTIFUL  
SUNSHINE, SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 60S. FAR SOUTHWEST NEB,  
BASICALLY CHASE, HAYES, FRONTIER COUNTIES, SHOULD TOP 70F. THE MAX  
TEMP FORECAST STILL LINES UP WITH THE LOWER QUARTILE OF THE NBM  
ENVELOPE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN WARMER HIGHS, WHICH VERY WELL  
MAY BE ACHIEVED GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES.  
A CORRIDOR OF 25-30KT FLOW AT H85 SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH AN ISSUE  
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THIS SETUP RESULTS IN FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS: NEAR CRITICAL IN THE SANDHILLS, LOCALLY/BRIEFLY CRITICAL  
IN THE PANHANDLE, AND PROBABLY SUSTAINED CRITICAL IN THE FAR  
SOUTHWEST. HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP EVEN LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY,  
WHERE 10% CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 6. ISSUED A FIRE  
WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 210 AND 219 WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS GREATEST  
FOR REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE  
AND CUSTER CO, BUT WILL PUNT THAT DECISION TO THE NEXT FORECAST  
SHIFT DEPENDING ON LATER GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL  
RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS  
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING H85 TEMPS SOMEWHERE AROUND 14C IN THE  
SANDHILLS, WHICH CORRESPOND ROUGHLY TO THE 97%ILE OF CLIMO PER NAEFS  
ENSEMBLES. THE SIGNAL FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH ALSO EXISTS IN THE ECM  
EFI, WHERE CONFIDENCE RANGES FROM 0.7-0.8/1. PUSHED FORECAST MAX  
TEMPS UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION, WHERE VALUES LINE  
UP WITH MEX/ECX GUIDANCE AND THE 50%ILE OF NBM. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER/MID 70S IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEB APPROACH OR TIE DAILY  
RECORDS. NORTHWEST NEB MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S, WHICH IS STILL  
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KICKS INTO  
OVERDRIVE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE  
WESTERN US ALSO DIGS AND BEGINS TO SPREAD EAST, ESPECIALLY LATER IN  
THE DAY. THE RESULTANT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE  
PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CARRY FIRE  
HEADLINES. HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE BORDERLINE, BUT TRENDS WILL BE  
MONITORED GIVEN THE WINDS AND FUELS STATUS.  
 
THE POWERFUL COLD FRONT CRASHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY  
TUESDAY, LEADING THE WAY FOR A SUDDEN RETURN TO WINTER. THE COLD AIR  
ADVECTION IS STARK, SHOWN BY H85 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO AROUND -15C BY  
00Z IN THE NORTH AND -10C IN THE SOUTH. THE FRONT PASSAGE ITSELF MAY  
BE DRY, BUT RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING FGEN FORCING AND MOISTENING AT H5-  
7 ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE SCOPE OF THE CAA  
AND OVERALL THERMAL PROFILES, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS  
SNOW. SLR'S START OUT SEASONABLY LOW, BUT QUICKLY ADJUST TO NEAR  
NORMAL OR SEASONABLY HIGH VALUES (15-18:1) DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
THERE SHOULD BE A WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS OF FAVORABLE LIFT AND  
SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ TO SUPPORT MINOR OR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN  
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS. THE QUICK-HITTING NATURE OF THE STRONG MID-  
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT  
1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE NEAR AND NORTH OF HWY 20. FARTHER  
SOUTH WHERE THE VERY COLD AIR WILL BE RELATIVELY DELAYED, A SKIFF OR  
DUSTING OF SNOW IS MORE PROBABLE. WHATEVER THE ACCUMULATION MAY BE,  
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE  
SETUP MAY ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW SQUALLS.  
 
BEYOND THE SUDDEN SWITCH TO WINTER, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RESETS WITH  
ANOTHER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. WHEN COMBINED WITH  
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST US, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AND EVEN GO BACK ABOVE  
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WIND AND HUMIDITY  
LEVELS, THE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE WEATHER NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN  
AVIATION CONCERN BEING SOME STRONGER WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON  
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE  
POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER  
SUNSET.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ210-219.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY  
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY  
LONG TERM...SNIVELY  
AVIATION...KULIK  
 
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