891  
FXUS63 KLBF 141131  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
CAMERAS AND SATELLITE REVEAL A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF FOG IS  
DEVELOPING THAN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. A FORECAST UPDATE IS IN  
PLACE FOR THIS FEATURE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT ACROSS THE  
SANDHILLS THIS MORNING LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG. THE FOG FORECAST  
FOLLOWS THE SHORT TERM MODEL BLEND WHICH MAINTAINS FOG ALONG AND  
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THE PROSPECT OF  
DENSE FOG IS UNCERTAIN BUT GIVEN THE CALIBER OF DRYING SHOWN IN THE  
MODEL, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.  
 
THE NEXT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA IS  
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ID AND WY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SPARKING STORMS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AROUND  
21Z THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS SOONER GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT  
WITH TEMPERATURES AT H700MB AROUND 2C. THIS STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD  
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, NERN COLO,  
NWRN KS AND PERHAPS SWRN NEBRASKA DEPENDING ON STEERING WINDS.  
 
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE STRONG SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT LAPSE RATES IN THE RAP MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE  
BECOME LESS STEEP SINCE THURSDAY SUGGESTING A LOWER OVERALL SEVERE  
STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, SPC SUGGESTED A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM  
RISK TODAY ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA AND THIS IS PROBABLY WARRANTED GIVEN  
THE COLD AIR ALOFT, STRONG WINDS AND THE ABILITY FOR STRONG HEATING  
TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY LATE  
SATURDAY AFFECTING WRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
CARRYING A COMPACT H700MB LOW INTO NERN WY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS  
ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG, NEAR 40KTS AT H500MB WHICH COULD SUPPORT  
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS BUT SPC AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS ARE HOLDING  
THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE HIGHER CAPE BUT  
WEAKER SHEARED SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE OF TIMING-  
THE STORMS PREDICTED ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA SATURDAY ARE OCCURRING  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A STATIONARY FRONT COULD BE POSITIONED ALONG THE  
KS-NEB BORDER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A H700MB  
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE SD-NEB BORDER SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LIFT A  
WARM FRONT INTO WRN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LIMITED HEATING DUE  
TO MORNING STRATUS WOULD SEEM TO BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR  
INSTABILITY. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE AND  
MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL BE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR ORDINARY  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  
 
SPC WILL HOLD THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MOSTLY SOUTH OF NEBRASKA  
ACROSS COLORADO AND KS SUNDAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH A SFC FRONT  
LOCATED ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER.  
 
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BECOME WEAK-THE RESULT OF AN  
UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF OR-WA, DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH  
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH  
THE CNTL ROCKIES AND BE LOCATED OVER COLO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA CONTINUE THROUGH  
THURSDAY. A DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WEAK  
RESULTANT SHEAR, PRESUMABLY NEGATING ANY SORT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT. THIS COULD BE AN EXCELLENT SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL  
BUT WPC MAINTAINS THIS HAZARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE GFS AND ECM,  
HOWEVER, SHOW SOME HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS CNTL AND ERN NEBRASKA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
LOW STRATUS AND FOG STILL REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AND  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST  
NEBRASKA, AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE  
TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN STORMS MOVING ACROSS KLBF OR KVTN  
TERMINAL.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CDC  
SHORT TERM...CDC  
LONG TERM...CDC  
AVIATION...GOMEZ  
 
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