621
FXUS63 KLBF 152340
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SOME ELEVATED TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
- A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK SIGNAL
FOR SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF CONUS,
PROMOTING HOT, DRY CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN PREVALENT AT ALL HEIGHTS WITH H850 SEEING TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 25 - 30 DEGREES C ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BY FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE INCREMENTALLY FROM THE LOW TO
MID 90S (3 - 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ON THURSDAY TO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S (5 - 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WITH TRIPLE DIGITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
FRIDAY. AS SUCH, HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DEBATED FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HOT DAYTIME HIGHS.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 100 - 103
FOR PORTIONS OF KEYA PAYA, BOYD, AND HOLT COUNTIES, GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN BACK AND FORTH OVER IF THIS REGION WILL REACH CRITERIA FOR
HEAT HEADLINES. OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS
MORE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. REGARDLESS, WITH WITH UPPER 90S
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, FOLKS THAT
ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH SHOULD BE CAREFUL AND VIGILANT WITH
TAKING NECESSARY PROTECTIONS FROM THE HEAT.
SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 20 -
25 MPH ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS
THAT HAVEN'T RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINS FROM PRIOR WEEKS. WITH
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE MID TO LOW 20S AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO STAY
CAUTIOUS OF AS TEMPERATURES RISE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES WITH LITTLE CHANGES
OVERALL. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH H850 REACHING 30 -
35 DEGREES C WILL SUPPORTING DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WILL BE A DAY TO KEY IN ON
FOR POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF AS TEMPERATURES ONLY COOLING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ONLY COOLING TO THE MID
70S TO UPPER 60S. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BREAK 100F WHILE THE
ECMWF REMAINS ON THE COOLER END OF PROBABILITIES WITH IT
SUGGESTING A 40 - 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BREAKING 100F.
REGARDLESS, CLIMATOLOGY PLACES BOTH HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FIRMLY IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT
LUCKILY NOT YET REACHING RECORD ALL TIME HIGHS YET. FOLKS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT SHOULD BE EXTRA VIGILANT TO HAVE
ADEQUATE COOLING PROCEDURES AND PROTECTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THIS
HEATWAVE.
LUCKILY, WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
START TO BRING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH MONDAY
HIGHS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S (3 - 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL) AND TUESDAY HIGHS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20 - 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT EVEN WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP, CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY NEAR IN THE LOWER LEVEL TO THE
SURFACE THAT ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES
THE SURFACE, SO CAN'T COUNT ON ANY RELIEF COMING THAT SOON. HOWEVER,
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK A SIGNAL FOR A SOMEWHAT STRONGER DISTURBANCE
APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40 - 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 RECEIVING ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OR BETTER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THAT DROPS OFF
NEARLY COMPLETELY TO 5 - 10 PERCENT OF THE SAME AREA RECEIVING
ONE HALF AND INCH OR GREATER. REGARDLESS, THIS CHANGE IN TRENDS
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE PREVIOUS HOT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS. SOME DIURNAL AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page