873
FXUS63 KLBF 221127
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGHS MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
- A SLIGHT "COOLDOWN" IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A LONGWAVE, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE, A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER NEW ENGLAND. WEST OF THE RIDGE,
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES OFF THE COAST
OF WASHINGTON STATE. SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDED NORTHEAST INTO OREGON AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON. WITH THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS, A BROAD SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED,
GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CDT, RANGED
FROM 29 DEGREES AT OGALLALA TO 44 DEGREES AT AINSWORTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING
NEAR 20C OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. MIXING POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE GOOD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SANDHILLS NORTH TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE KANSAS
BORDER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MIXING POTENTIAL REDUCED.
HOWEVER, FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PAINT LOWER 70S EVEN IN THOSE
AREAS WHERE MIXING POTENTIAL IS NOT AS GREAT. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE 71 DEGREES
FOR NORTH PLATTE AND IMPERIAL AND 70 DEGREES FOR BROKEN BOW AND
VALENTINE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 70 TO 72 DEGREES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS, RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS APPEAR LIKELY
TODAY. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDHILLS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON,
NOT EXPECTING RH'S TO DROP MUCH BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL CRITERIA SO NO RFW HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL HOWEVER MENTION THE ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL THREAT IN THE HWO AND FWF PRODUCTS THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COOLDOWN WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 50 FOR O'NEILL. HIGHS FOR IMPERIAL WILL REACH
AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. WARMER AIR WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT IS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 62 AND 59 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE
RESPECTIVELY AND FORECAST HIGHS OF 67 AND 68, RECORD HIGHS WILL
BE SHATTERED ON WEDNESDAY. RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ARE 65
DEGREES FOR BOTH NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR 67 AND 68 DEGREES, SO ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD
HIGHS APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. A "SLIGHT" COOLDOWN IS IN THE CARDS
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. ATTM BASED ON THE NBM
TEMPERATURE SPREADS, WHICH ARE 5 DEGREES OR LESS (INTER-
QUARTILE) AND EFI'S WHICH ARE 0.9 TO 0.99, FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WHICH ARE 22 TO 27 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR FRIDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN
CANADA NEXT WEEKEND, FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 40S FOR
SUNDAY. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FORE THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. AS FOR
FIRE CONCERNS MIDWEEK, THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS MINIMUM RH REACHES 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WINDS
WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL RUN
AROUND 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, NORTH TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. WIND GUSTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING BEING FROM THE WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AT THE KLBF TERMINAL, PEAKING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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