712
FXUS63 KLBF 121110
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I- 80 TODAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA NORTH OF I-80 ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FRONT AND CENTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY BETWEEN UPPER RIDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. REGIONAL
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER, WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA. AFTER INTERROGATION
OF SOUNDING PROFILES AND O'NEILL AND BROKEN BOW, DECIDED A NEED TO
ADD THAT AREA (FIRE WEATHER ZONE (FWZ) 209) TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PART OF 209
AROUND THE O'NEILL AREA. OTHERWISE, THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, AS WELL AS THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 25
MPH AND POTENTIALLY IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY (AS LOW AS 11% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE) AND 12-18% ELSEWHERE. WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND ACTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRAW HIGHER HUMIDITY
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA (FWZ 209) WITH VERY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE 85-100%
RANGE. ACROSS FARTHER WEST HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE AT BEST,
GENERALLY IN THE 55-65% RANGE.
A SIMILAR SET-UP IS EXPECTED MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING, WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND THE PANHANDLE. AGAIN IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WILL BE SPARED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE CONDITIONS LOOK
MOST FAVORABLE, WHICH INCLUDES THE PANHANDLE, AND THE SANDHILLS AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY.
BY AFTERNOON, WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WILL RIDE NORTHEAST FROM
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK PROMISING AND
ARE AT 40 TO 60+ PERCENT PER THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER
WHEN QPF THRESHOLDS ARE INCREASED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH,
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE FALL OFF TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS
THE AREA. AS FOR POPS, BROUGHT THEM DOWN FROM THE INITIALIZED
NBM FORECAST AND LIMITED THEM TO A MAX OF 60 PERCENT, MAINLY
OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS,
INCLUDING THE EC FROM 12Z YESTERDAY AND THE 18Z NAM SOLN. LOOK
PROMISING FOR DECENT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST 00Z NAM SOLN HAS SHIFTED THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT
FURTHER SOUTH, ENCOMPASSING SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY, WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THIS IS COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHER MINIMUM RH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SUCH IS THE INCREASE IN RH, BELIEVE, NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NO LONGER AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ENTER
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, VERY WARM AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RESULTANT MINIMUM RH WILL
BOTTOM OUT AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, SO NEAR
CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE THREE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE FIRST EPISODE WILL BE WITH THE SURFACE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT, THE SECOND BEING POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE THIRD THREAT BEING
SATURDAY, AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAINLY 50S ON FRIDAY AND 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR. A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, WITH DECKS GENERALLY
AROUND 25000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208-209.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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