050
FXUS63 KLBF 192048
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, MODEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT EAST BEFORE BEGINNING TO WASH OUT THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD SPELL THE END OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO CONVECTION MOVING
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BELIEVE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THESE TOO SHOULD WANE OUT BEFORE MOVING
IN. A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DRIFT THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD END BY EARLY
EVENING. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE WEST TO NEAR 60
IN THE EAST.
FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT A WARMER DAY AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. IT'S THESE SAME WARM
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA CAPPED AND DRY FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. DURING THE
EVENING, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND SPARK OFF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. STRONG
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE THANKS IN PART TO THE 30-40 KNOT JET MAX AT
H85 WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AGREE WITH THE SPC'S
MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019
BEGINNING 12Z FRIDAY. AREA BEGINS THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH
STRONG H5 FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEBRASKA BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. MAIN
FEATURE ACROSS MT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS
IT DOES INTO FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SPC COVERS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
WITH A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THINK THERE WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED HAILERS ACROSS THAT
AREA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE, WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 80S SOUTH
AND EAST.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN SK STORM. AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION IT CUTS OFF AND SLOWS ITS APPROACH
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE, MODEST UPSLOPE OF HUMID AIR WILL BRING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP A LOW-PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PUSH
IT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. MAIN H5
VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO END THE WEEKEND. BELIEVE THERE TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO REALIZE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRINGING MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGHS RETURN
INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT STANDS NOW UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK TO
BE IN PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY SEES THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
KLBF AND KVTN VICINITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 20Z.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THEREAFTER
INTO EARLY EVENING. THEN, OVERNIGHT AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INCLUDING KVTN. LOWER CEIINGS NEAR OVC035 MAY OCCUR AT KVTN BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND ARE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JURGENSEN
LONG TERM...JURGENSEN
AVIATION...ROBERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page