923
FXUS63 KLBF 202332
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
632 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS THREAT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THANKS TO
CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
- DRY AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S SATURDAY, THEN 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST OF
THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WAS A POSITIVE
TILTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN WYOMING, SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EAST OF THIS TROUGH, BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS, ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITHIN THIS MID LEVEL FLOW, INCREASED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAD DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE SLOWLY MIGRATED NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND AS
OF MID AFTERNOON WERE PRESENT GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM IMPERIAL
AND ARTHUR, EAST TO NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS PRESENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CHERRY AND
SHERIDAN COUNTIES. MID LEVEL FLOW WAS WEAKER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 48 DEGREES AT GRANT TO 63 DEGREES AT
VALENTINE AND AINSWORTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SW
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATER IN THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS, A SECONDARY AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY
EVENING, WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FORCING WILL EXIT THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING, WILL DRIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THURSDAY,
WILL LEAD TO COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MIDDLE 50S IN SW NEBRASKA.
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
SOME MIDDLE 60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO WYOMING ON THURSDAY. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE, BROAD LIFT WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING IN THE PANHANDLE,
THEN SPREADING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND EC, ALONG WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC, NAM AND GFS THIS MORNING DEVELOP A BROAD SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE PANHANDLE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
AT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES IN THE GEFS AND EC SOLNS INDICATE A
NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.10" QPF OR HIGHER ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHEN THIS THRESHOLD IS
INCREASED TO 0.50", THERE IS A 70+% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. THAT BEING SAID, CATEGORICAL POPS
80-NEAR 100% ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT FACILITATING A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD RESIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME LIMITED
CLEARING AND SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL INCREASE THAT THREAT. ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY, CLOUD COVER, LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND COOL TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S, SHOULD INHIBIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S IN THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. SOME LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME LIMITED CLEARING MAY COMMENCE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S FOR SATURDAY, WITH
80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST EC AND GFS SOLNS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MID WEEK ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST, PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR STORMS
BEGINNING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVERCAST TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 11Z
THURSDAY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL, WITH BKN-OVC010 THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY.
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL, EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS 6000
TO 8000 FT AGL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WINDS NEAR
16015G25KT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...ROBERG
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