907
FXUS63 KLBF 180522
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/WEAK
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO 70S AND 80S BY SUNDAY.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE BROAD STRATUS SHIELD TO LIFT NORTH AND PROMOTE MORE SUNSHINE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH TO LOW 60S IN THE NORTH. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS ALSO
PROMOTED SOME STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT, CUMULUS
IN THE AREA APPEARS MORE AGITATED IN RESPONSE TO MODEST INSTABILITY.
SOME SUSTAINED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT RANGE TO THE
WEST AND THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND RETURN TO PRIMARILY SHOWERY ACTIVITY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTH,
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH THE STRATUS. AT
THIS TIME, A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS, PERHAPS BRIEFLY TOUCHING BELOW 1SM, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER TAKES SHAPE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
WORK INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE CAA WITHIN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. PRECIPITATION LOOKS LARGELY
UNEVENTFUL WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AND NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES AND SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
WILL GIVE AN EARLY FALL FEEL, BRISK AND DREARY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
WANE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE EVENING.
FRIDAY...A MESOHIGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN AS IT DEPARTS. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE QUICKLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING INTO THE BOUNDARY
WILL PROMOTE A DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. A FEW SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS MUCAPE CLIMBS TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM INCREASING HEIGHTS. STILL THOUGH, WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE NEED TO INCREASED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF POPS THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WHICH IS LIMITED TO ~20% (SLIGHT CHANCE)
FAVORING CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT FAVORS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN AND UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. AS MOISTURE POOLS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMB FURTHER INTO THE 80S, WILL SEE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER H5
FLOW. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL, MUCAPE CLIMBING INTO
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE BEARS WATCHING. THOUGH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS NO OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY, BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR A STRONG
OR SEVERE STORM BEARS WATCHING. ENSEMBLES REMAIN MUTED REGARDING
POTENTIAL BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE
NEED TO MONITOR. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH MOIST
SURFACE AIR SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MARGINAL SHEAR. THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEARS WATCHING. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE
IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW SO STAY TUNED.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DIFFERING ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. FOR NOW, BELIEVE SOME MODEST IMPACTS IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE. EPS QPF PROBABILITIES CLIMB SLIGHTLY
FOR MONDAY THOUGH GEFS SOLUTIONS KEEPS ANY GREATER PROBABILITIES TO
THE EAST. THEREAFTER THOUGH, AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE VALUES AND HIGHER SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S. RECENT DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DISPLAYS A COOL BIAS,
LIKELY DUE TO RECENT COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO LATER FORECASTS WILL
LIKELY EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTS FOR TERMINALS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, AT LEAST
LOW-END VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page