052  
FXUS63 KLBF 051133  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
633 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE OF CONCERN TODAY AS WELL AS THE HEAT  
AND HUMIDITY THAT CONTINUES. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE  
EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT CONTINUES ON THE  
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS  
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS  
NORTHEAST CO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL  
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTH  
CENTRAL NE. LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER  
70S INVOF OF THE INVERTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE  
WITH A PLUME OF FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CREATE VERY  
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS SFC  
BASED CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF  
NORTHERN NE INTO SOUTHERN SD. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH  
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES. WHILE THE  
STRONGEST SHEAR REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS SD, THE AMOUNT OF  
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL FAVOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS  
THAT MAY OCCUR TODAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS  
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE  
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM O'NEILL  
TO OGALLALA. MID AFTERNOON IS WHEN THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FIRST  
BEGIN. THESE COULD BE RATHER PULSEY BUT STILL POSE A WIND THREAT AND  
LESSER CHANCE FOR HAIL. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN  
SD AND CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING. DAMAGING  
WIND CONCERN WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS  
SD WITHIN THE HIGHLY SHEARED, VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE  
QUESTION HERE IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND. IT IS  
POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS COULD SKIRT NEAR OR  
JUST SOUTH OF THE NE/SD BORDER. BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY SEEM TO STAND  
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND.  
MOST CAMS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SURGE  
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY  
OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH.  
 
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY.  
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS OF  
100 TO 104F FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83.  
 
WEDNESDAY'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. A LOT  
HINGES ON HOW THE ACTIVITY UNFOLDS TODAY. IF STRONG OUTFLOW DOES  
INDEED PUSH SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA THEN RECOVERY COULD BE IN  
QUESTION. NEVERTHELESS THE MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL  
CONTINUE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OFF TO OUR  
SOUTHEAST. MANY IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW CONTINUING  
THE UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE PATTERN. ONE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO STALL FROM WESTERN NE INTO EASTERN CO AND  
WESTERN KS. STORMS FIRE ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE  
UPPER FLOW THEN CARRYING THE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY  
EVENING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD FROM  
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THIS OCCURS  
MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL  
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY  
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES  
AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS SHEAR DECREASES AND MID-  
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN  
RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP  
IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THIS OCCURS TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE  
CHANCES RETURNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF  
CONVECTION. WILL WATCH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY  
MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE  
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND PRECISE PLACEMENT FOR STORM INITIATION,  
WILL COVER PERIODS OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH VCTS MENTIONS FOR  
NOW. MODELS VARY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SOMEWHAT SO WILL NEED TO  
REFINE WITH LATER FORECASTS. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF  
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO BRIEFLY  
MVFR POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL  
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH MORE  
PROLONGED IMPACTS EXPECTED AT LBF BEFORE CLEARING OUT JUST PRIOR  
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR NEZ007>010-026>029-037-038-059-070-071.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR  
LONG TERM...TAYLOR  
AVIATION...NMJ  
 
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