987  
FXUS63 KLBF 141116  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
616 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER NORTH WESTERN INTO NORTH  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HOWEVER  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO AVOID CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR  
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD THE REMNANTS OF  
FRANCINE OVER MEMPHIS TN. NORTH OF THIS FEATURE, HIGH PRESSURE  
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO, JUST NORTH OF  
SAULT STE. MARIE MICHIGAN. RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH OF THIS  
FEATURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY. WEST OF THE HIGH AND  
RIDGE, CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  
A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER  
SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO. THESE FEATURES WERE EMBEDDED IN A MORE BROAD  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN  
CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, LOW  
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA  
PANHANDLE. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH  
DAKOTA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH  
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT, THIS BOUNDARY HAD  
BEGUN TO MOVE WEST PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. DEW POINTS EAST  
OF THIS FEATURE WERE HIGHER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. WEST OF  
THE BOUNDARY, DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S. SKIES WERE CLEAR TO  
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND 2 AM CT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 45  
DEGREES AT GORDON TO 66 DEGREES AT IMPERIAL.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT WEST THIS MORNING, STALLING  
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY. IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE  
BOUNDARY, AND THANKS TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,  
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S THIS  
AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON, A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH  
WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM EASTERN WYOMING. WITH SURFACE HEATING,  
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LATEST CAMS INCLUDING THE 00Z HRRR, 06Z  
RAP AND THE 3KM NAM DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER NORTHWESTERN  
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRANSITION THIS EAST INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AS FOR THE SEVERE  
THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KTS IS  
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES AROUND 1500J/KG IN THE  
PANHANDLE, COULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO, ESPECIALLY OVER  
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE IS A COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE  
RATES, FAVORABLE CAPE AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR  
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER COOLS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE  
AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE  
WEST AND LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THIS WILL LEAD TO A  
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING  
INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERLY WINDS  
WILL INCREASE, FORCING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN  
NEBRASKA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RUN 2 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN  
FORECASTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REACH INTO THE  
UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE  
AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS, WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS ARE  
EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
THE WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY NIGHT  
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE  
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING INITIATING  
STORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT INTO  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST  
DESI PROBABILISTIC QPF FORECAST HAS AROUND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE  
FOR >0.10 INCHES OF QPF SUNDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY  
61. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT  
IN WESTERN AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL  
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS INTO  
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL  
BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS  
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EFI WIND SPEED FORECAST BOTH DAYS.  
THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY ANY MEANS, THIS DOES INDICATE SOME DECENT  
GUSTY WINDS BOTH DAYS. WOULD BE CONCERNED SOMEWHAT ABOUT  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS INTO MIDWEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG UPPER  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL  
FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO AN  
INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A PERSISTENT  
SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND  
WYOMING. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS, ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION  
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON,  
GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN  
NEBRASKA (VTN) THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUBSIDING DOWN TO 10 KTS OR  
LESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA (LBF) LATE THIS EVENING.  
CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THIS EVENING HAS LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY  
SINCE LAST FORECAST ISSUANCE, THUS OMITTED ANY MENTION OF -TSRA.  
FUTURE AMENDMENTS OR INCLUSIONS ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD CONFIDENCE  
INCREASE.  
 
 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER  
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER  
LONG TERM...BUTTLER  
AVIATION...VIKEN  
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