885
FXUS63 KLBF 102347
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
- POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL, THEN COOLER MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A RIBBON OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA, WHICH SHOWS UP VERY
AS A BAND OF BLOOMING CUMULUS FROM THE PANHANDLE EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED BUT GIVEN THE VIGOR
OF THE CUMULUS A STRAY SPRINKLE/SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ANY SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT, ALONG WITH ANY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY COOPERATE WITH ANYONE
LOOKING SKYWARD FOR THE AURORA LATER TONIGHT.
THE WEEKEND GETS OFF TO A PLEASANT START WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL START TO EJECT EASTWARD AND REJOIN
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
DRIVE DEVELOMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR SOUTH, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY TO PUSH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UP FROM THE SOUTH STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE THE
PROBABILITY OF ONE QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS BETTER THAN
50 PERCENT, WHILE PROBABILITIES TRAIL OFF RAPIDLY FURTHER TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE OF HUNDRETHS WILL
REACH 30 PERCENT AS FAR NORTH AS VALENTINE. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
ROBUST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH. COMBINED WITH MODESTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS AND WILL BE WATCHING EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR ANY INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF I-80
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE SD BORDER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEK DEPICTING SOME LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PUSHING ANOTHER TROF
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL
OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY AS IS EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LOW END SIGNAL IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES. THIS
AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST JUST
ABOUT EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO AT OR ABLE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A BIT COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR 10K FT AGL EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DISSIPATED AFTER 01Z. MAINLY FEW250 EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BELOW 10KT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
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