415
FXUS63 KLBF 080809
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOMALOUS WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S
FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
UPPER FLOW REMAINS SPLIT WITH A RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN
CONUS, BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. BENEATH THE LEE SIDE
OF THIS RIDGING PATTERN, A TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT BUT
COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 50S WHICH WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RANGE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
PARTICULARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPS ARE THE
WARMEST AS WELL. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, WHILE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
THE UPPER RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMER, DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
JUST HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS
NOW, AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WHERE LOW 90S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBLITY. BASED ON THESE TRENDS, IMPERIAL AND VALENTINE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS, EACH BEING AT 91 DEGREES, HAVE A LOW END (10 -
30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RESULT OF THIS RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA, DROPPING HUMIDITY DOWN
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR JUST
HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES BUT COULD MOVE AS FAR EAST AS
HWY 83. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES,
WITH PEAK GUSTS BEING IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 MPH. AREAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM CURTIS TO O'NEILL HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 MPH (40 TO 60 PERCENT). NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
ARE OUT AT THIS TIME, AS THE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE STRONGEST WINDS TO
THE EAST AND THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES IN THE WEST REMAINS LIMITED. THAT
BEING SAID, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY IF THE OVERLAP
EXPANDS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND
AS DETAILED FURTHER IN THE LONG TERM BELOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY NIGHT, EAST OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, WILL
LEAD TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE FORECAST HAS A LOW OF 62 FOR LBF SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LATEST MET
AND MAV LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. I DID GO AND TREND LOWS DOWN
SOMEWHAT FROM THE INHERITED NBM FORECAST BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE
MET AND MAV NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST. THIS LED TO A LOW AROUND 60
FOR NORTH PLATTE SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER 10TH (RECORD IS 59). GUSTY WINDS
WILL TRANSITION INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATES INTO
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. HIGHS WERE RAISED SOME
FROM THE INITIALIZED NBM FORECAST TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDED HIGHS AROUND
90 OVER SW NEBRASKA AND IN THE VALENTINE AREA. RECORD HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY ARE WELL INTO THE MID 90S FOR NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE,
AND IMPERIAL SO RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MINIMUM
RH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND NW SANDHILLS. HOWEVER, WITH THESE AREAS
INVOF THE SURFACE TROUGH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL CRITERIA OF 25 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, MINIMUM RH IN
THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL MENTION THE
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
HIT IT HARD IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT, VERY MILD LOWS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
50 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST, WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. FOR NORTH PLATTE, THE MINIMUM
OF 60 DEGREES WOULD STILL BE BELOW THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF
63 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 11. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD
DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INVOF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON MONDAY, FORCING
THE FRONT SOUTH INTO KANSAS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT,
INITIATING PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A DECENT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY-PER THE LATEST NBM FORECAST. THIS SEEMS TO
AGREE WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLN, HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST EC SOLN WITH RESPECT
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THERE OF ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
A DRY FORECAST WILL BE RETAINED ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER, THERE MAY
BE A NEED TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25000 FT AGL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25
KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE KVTN TERMINAL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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