110
FXUS63 KLBF 262031
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTH WINDS PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, LEADING TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY, DUE TO WARM, DRY AND, VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MILES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. BY TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA, FURTHER WEAKENING
THE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE APPROACH OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR ALL.
THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHOULD KEEP WINDS WEAKER TOMORROW, AND THIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THAT SAID, THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO 50S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S AGAIN,
WITH SOUTH WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR
SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT, BROAD SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THE AREA STILL
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO CONSTRICT CONSIDERABLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK ONSET OF
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MILES PER HOUR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
70S WILL PUSH HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS. THIS OVERLAP LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER SETUP, AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ON SATURDAY.
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND WITH THIS THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AS WELL. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND CHALLENGING DAILY RECORDS. WITH A
COMBINATION OF VERY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS THEN STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDLE TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS, AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND ANY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
REMAINS VERY LOW FOR NOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT
THIS COULD AT LEAST LEAD TO A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE DAILY THREATS
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL
TODAY, THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES
ELEVATED ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW, THOUGH WEAKER WINDS LOOK TO LIMIT FIRE
CONCERNS SOMEWHAT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS WEEKEND, AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RETURN BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, AS VERY LOW HUMIDITY
OVERLAPS SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MILES PER HOUR. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY.
NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK, AND
THIS COULD BRING A RETURN OF WETTING MOISTURE TO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
FIRE WEATHER...BROWN
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