649
FXUS63 KLBF 261724
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL OVER A HALF INCH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARD SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL SNOW.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PINE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING REGION WIDE AFTER SUNRISE, ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL LIQUID.
THROUGHOUT TODAY, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTING MUCH
OF THE REGION. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY, NOT
EXPECTING THESE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST GIVING WAY TO A DRIER PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS. BY EARLY EVENING,
A RETURN TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. HOWEVER, SOME DECENT SUPPORT WILL
NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
OR TWO ENTIRELY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTHEAST OF A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE TO O'NEILL LINE, BUT SOME
STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS
AND INTO THE VALENTINE AREA. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING
DEVELOPMENT, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS, THOUGH. A LOT
WILL DEPEND OF IF WE CAN GET SOME DECENT CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE LONGER WE CAN STAY DRY AND EVEN GET SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, THE MORE UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
IN THE DAY.
REGARDLESS IF SEVERE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OR NOT, FAIRLY DECENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED QPF SLIGHTLY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH (0.25) OF QPF, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SEEING UP TO AN INCH. EVEN THESE LOWER AMOUNTS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THAT HAS
BEEN DEALING WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2, BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE WEAKER AND LESS
ORGANIZED THAN TONIGHT'S AND THEREFORE, LIMITED QPF WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LOOKING AT POSSIBLY A TENTH OR TWO (0.1 TO 0.2)
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM, EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNRISE. AS
THE H7 TROUGH AXIS EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, INCREASING MID-LEVEL FGEN SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MOVING WEST TO EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A THREAT FOR A MIXED P-TYPE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LEAST
INITIALLY, GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AND INTO THE 40S TO
50S. THE LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
BE FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME, WITH NBM
PROBABILITIES OF >0.25" TUESDAY PEAKING AT ~40-50% WEST OF HWY 83.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ALOFT INTO MIDWEEK, WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH
THE TRACK OF THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF
PRECIPITATION. NBM PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS NOTION, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF EVEN >0.10" OF ~40-60% REMAINING CONFINED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S TO
60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE ENDING BRIEFLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF MVFR/LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, AT 5 TO 10KTS. WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z, AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TOWARDS 18Z MONDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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