786
FXUS63 KLBF 121931
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
231 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST BOTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL.
- CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
EAST OF HWY 83.
- A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOL-DOWN FOR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA VERSUS YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER
60S THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH AT
LEAST A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE) MAY SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND APPROACH THE HWY 61 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACT, WITH THE ONLY THREAT BEING A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODESTLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THAT SAID, THE BEST MUCAPE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS LESSER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, AND AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED,
AND A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.
THE COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR SOUTH THEN BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARDS INTO TOMORROW, WITH STRENGTHENING EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNING BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF RICHER
MOISTURE BACK TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AND MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME. BELIEVE THIS WILL
LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST
OF HWY 83. HERE, HIGHS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO LEAVE THE 60S. WHERE
STRATUS CAN ERODE FURTHER WEST, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE
DRY ACROSS THE AREA, BEFORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER LLJ.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NOW, A FAVORABLE OVERLAP IN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MONDAY, A CLOSED MID-LEVEL SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
THE 700-850 MB LAYER. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL WARM INTO THE 25
TO 30C RANGE, WHICH IS QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BENEATH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE MIDDLE
80S TO LOWER 90S. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY, THOUGH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT, KEEPING
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT PROGRESSES
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME, THOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS KANSAS, LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY
WITHIN THE COOLER AIR MASS. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION REGIME. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS KANSAS, THOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY. TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS
MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR FOCUSED
FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN DETERMINING
HOW FAR NORTH THE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP. BY LATE
WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS RANGE. HIGHS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
OVERALL, A MORE FALL-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD, CHARACTERIZED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAINFALL
CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
LOW STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW-END VFR/LOCALLY MVFR
CIGS CONTINUING. OUTSIDE OF THIS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LOW STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, LEADING TO MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THEN PREVAIL INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AT 10 TO 15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...BROWN
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