145
FXUS63 KLBF 051905
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
205 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%) THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
BELOW 0C TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE TUESDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO
WARMER, DRIER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID-WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW (<30%) FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN 0.25" OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OUT. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW AS RH VALUES WILL REACH THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT, BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW
THERE AS WELL.
TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE WITH TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LEADING TO LOWS IN THE THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AREA-
WIDE. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS FORCING WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BEST LIFT BEING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW. PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH THE HREF AND NBM
ENSEMBLES SHOWING ONLY A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF QPF EXCEEDING
0.05 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ALSO NOT
EXPECTED, WITH PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 0.5 INCHES
REMAINING IN THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE. ONCE AGAIN BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL THEN
EXIT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
40S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THIS TIME MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ONCE AGAIN, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT, WITH NBM ENSEMBLES SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF QPF
EXCEEDING 0.10 INCHES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT
WITH LIGHT QPF EXPECTED, ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE 50S AND UPPER 60S FARTHER SOUTHWEST. SOME
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AS RH VALUES FALL AS LOW
AS 20-25 PERCENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST DURING THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES CLUSTERS SUGGESTS TWO PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE OUTCOMES
STEMMING FROM THIS EVOLUTION: 1) THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE WEST COAST, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS; OR 2) A LESS-AMPLIFIED
TROUGH REACHING THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST, LEADING TO ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEEK.
GIVEN THE CURRENT POSSIBILITY OF BOTH SCENARIOS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT AMOUNTS OF
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF) ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN THAT THE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LITTLE INDICATION OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND/OR SNOW. NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM)
PROBABILITIES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-40% FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH PER 24 HOUR PERIOD, COMMENCING FRIDAY
AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. PROBABILITIES FOR
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER 24-HOUR PERIOD ARE
EXCEEDING LOW (GENERALLY LESS THAN 5%). THEREFORE, WHILE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED, WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MONITORING OF INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE NECESSARY AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES, AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE QPF AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POP)
FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME, ESAT TABLES DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
CONCERNS, THOUGH THEY POINT TO A POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ANOMALY ON
SATURDAY AND POSSIBILITY SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA.
IRRESPECTIVE OF THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN SEASONAL, WITH A TREND TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THOSE WHO HAVE VULNERABLE
PLANTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR MORNING LOWS, AS AT LEAST MID-WEEK,
THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A KILLING FREEZE. OTHERWISE ESAT AND
WIC TABLES CURRENTLY SUGGEST A LOW THREAT OF ANOMALOUS
TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS GREATLY APPRECIATIVE GIVEN THE RECENT FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES THAT AFFECTED THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT MARCH. A
FURTHER POSITIVE CONSIDERATIONS IS THAT NEITHER ATMOSPHERIC
EVOLUTION FAVORS HIGH WIND EVENT(S); HOWEVER THE EVENTUAL PATTERN
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SOME INFLUENCE (ALBEIT MINOR) OF GULF MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE REGION.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS
FOR FURTHER CLARITY. IN THE INTERIM, PREPAREDNESS FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MID-WEEK AND BEYOND IS ADVISED.
FURTHERMORE, SOME INSTABILITY MAY INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JACOBS/LABENZ
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