655
FXUS63 KLBF 191144
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
644 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS. THE CONCERN IS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO
25 MPH, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM 80 TO AROUND 85 CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAINING.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY WITH COORDINATION
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS FORECAST HIGHS EXCEED MONTHLY
RECORDS AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT
ARRIVING LATE.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK SEES A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES,
BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
TODAY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BE CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK TODAY. H85
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY FROM 18 TO
23C WITH MIXING UP TO 650MB. HIGHS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE TO NEAR 80 NORTH, AND LOW 80S TO NEAR 85 SOUTH. REGARDING
DEWPOINTS, NUDGED TOWARD THE 00Z HRRR FOR DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER, LOWEST IN GARDEN COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR 20. WESTERLY
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH UP TO 25 MPH, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. HUMIDITY WILL BE VERY LOW AT 10 TO 15 PERCENT, WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 7 PM MST ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE,
WITH GUST POTENTIAL 20 MPH OR LESS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING
THE RED FLAG WARNING SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE BY 00Z, FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT NORTHWEST. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AT ONLY 45 TO 55 PERCENT, AS LOWS ACROSS THE AREA FALL
INTO THE LOWER 40S.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST. A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NORTH, TO NEAR 85
SOUTH. THESE HIGHS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES TOWARD THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE LOW, DOWN
TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT, WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 40S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
THE HUMIDITY RECOVERY POOR AT 45 TO 65 PERCENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OUT OF NORTHEAST WYOMING.
EPS/GEFS SHOW TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH CENTRAL LOW PRESSURES IN THE
995-1000 HPA RANGE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH. AS THIS FEATURE ENTERS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR (NORTH PLATTE TO VALENTINE LINE) WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S TO THE WEST BUT UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F TO
THE EAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMPRESSES. PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN HOW STRONG WINDS PRECISELY GET, BUT OVERALL THINKING IS DEEP
MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH 25+ KNOT H7 FLOW WILL
SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL EASILY
REACH THE WARMEST VALUES OF THE SPRING THUS FAR AND PUSH RECORD
LEVELS FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX (EFI) CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER WITH POSITIVE
ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 0.9 FOR ALL OF NEBRASKA AND SHIFT OF TAILS (SOT)
VALUES OF UP TO 1. EPS/GEFS OUTPUT SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 90F FOR KLBF, SUGGESTING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. SPREAD
INCREASES SLIGHTLY FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA, PARTICULARLY KVTN, WHERE
TIMING AND INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT CASTS SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY. RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES HOWEVER, WITH
DETAILS PERTAINING TO THAT IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. TO
EMPHASIZE THE UNUSUAL NATURE OF THE EXPECTED HEAT: NORTH PLATTE HAS
NOT RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F+ IN MARCH SINCE 2017 AND
SHOULD THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLD, A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH WOULD BE SET. IT WOULD ALSO BE ONLY THE THIRD
OCCURRENCE OF 90F+ FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH IN THE NORTH PLATTE AREA
WEATHER HISTORY (THREADEX DATA). AS RIDGE BREAKDOWN CONTINUES, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CRASHING INTO A DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUES BELOW A HALF INCH, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO PAINT
ALMOST ZERO POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE
APPEARS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN POST-FRONTAL WINDS INCREASING. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 30+ KNOT GUSTS CLIMB TO 50%+ OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS SHOW A SHALLOW MIXED
LAYER AND INCREASING H85 FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 45
MPH. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY LAST MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT DECREASES POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...FLOW FLATTENS TO START NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY FROM OUR LATE WEEK HEATWAVE, WHILE REMAINING NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL STILL FOR LATE MARCH. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS SHOW
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS SETTLING 50S/60S ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA. LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST TOWARDS
MONDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK. NBM INNER-QUARTILE SPREADS SHOW STEADY CLIMBS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, EVEN 10TH PERCENTILE OUTPUT SHOWS
A RETURN TO 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED PRIOR TO THIS (< 10% PROBABILITIES FOR RUN TOTAL QPF TO
EXCEED 0.10" BY THURSDAY), BELIEVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN
BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND SHOULD
REINTRODUCE COOLER CONDITIONS AS DEEP TROUGHING PASSES TO THE NORTH.
ANY COOLDOWN WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AS ANOMALOUS POSITIVE HEIGHTS
RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL LIKELY PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL RANGE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BASES COMFORTABLY
ABOVE 12KFT AGL. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT PEAK SPEEDS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS
REMAIN STEADY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND
5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AS CRITICAL TO NEAR-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
CONCERNS PEAKING SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD ADD A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL PROMOTE CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY, WITH VALUES
FALLING TO AROUND 10% IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND INTO THE 15-20% RANGE
ELSEWHERE. LIMITING CONCERN SOMEWHAT FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED WIND
GUSTS. FOR STARTERS, NBM PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 22 KNOT (25 MPH)
GUSTS PEAKS AROUND 60% FOR CENTRAL ZONE 204 WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED BUT STRONGEST H85-H7 FLOW SHOULD
RETREAT NORTH AND EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE DAY WHICH
WILL PROMOTE REASONABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THAT SAID, WITH
STRONGER FLOW OFF THE SURFACE TO THE NORTH AND EAST, GUST POTENTIAL
IS GREATLY LIMITED. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 25 MPH GUSTS
CLOSELY ALIGN WITH DETERMINISTIC PLACEMENT OF THE H7 SPEED MAX, AND
CRATERS PROBABILITIES TO NEARLY 10% OR LESS IN ZONE 204 WHERE THE
CURRENT HEADLINE EXISTS. IN RECENT DAYS, HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
OVERLY BULLISH ON WINDS AND FOR TODAY LEANED MORE ON ARW/FV3
GUIDANCE WHICH PAINTS GUSTS CLOSER TO 20-25 MPH NORTH AND EAST OF A
GORDON TO BROKEN BOW LINE. GIVEN ONGOING FIRES IN ZONE 204, WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARNING FOR THIS AREA, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING TO 10% AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR CONTINUED DRY FUELS AND
FAVORABLE BURNING CONDITIONS. FLOW OFF THE SURFACE INCREASES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A NIGHT OF POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ONLY CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A SLIGHT VEERING OF WINDS
TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. HREF PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LARGELY LESS THAN 40% IN SEEING MAXIMUM HUMIDITIES RECOVER TO
GREATER THAN 60%. EVEN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOWS LESS THAN 80%
POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM HUMIDITY EXCEEDING 30%, TO INCLUDE THE
COTTONWOOD FIRE COMPLEX AND PORTIONS OF THE MORRILL COMPLEX. THIS
ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE GOING FORECAST OF 40-60% PEAK RECOVERY FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SEE A MODEST 1-2F BUMP
FROM THURSDAY VALUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S FOR ALL LOCATIONS
AND MAKING AT RUN AT 90F SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM. WINDS
SIMILARLY APPEAR FAIRLY MODEST, WITH ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES IN NBM
PROBABILITIES. HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN APPEARS LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH
CURRENT FORECASTS CALLING FOR LOWER TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
20% FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE OUTPUT FROM THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS LIMITED COVERAGE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS
(25 MPH). NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW < 20 KNOTS WINDS ANYWHERE BELOW
H7 (~1.5KM AGL) AND SO BELIEVE MOMENTUM TRANSFERS OF ANY STRONGER H7
FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. GIVEN LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE
SIGNAL FOR STRONGER WINDS IN HREF OUTPUT, WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY
MODEST WINDS AND THUS NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY
FAVOR MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WINDS OF WHICH COULD MAKE TIMING OF
DIRECTIONAL CHANGES DIFFICULT THOUGH THE WEAK SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE CONCERN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES AND POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY YET AGAIN. FORECAST PEAK HUMIDITY RANGES FROM AROUND 45% IN
THE WEST TO NEAR 70% IN THE FAR EAST.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
AN EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. RIDGE BREAKDOWN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. STRONGER FLOW WILL CROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND LEAD TO
INCREASING LEE TROUGHING AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TRAIL A DRYLINE LIKELY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY MID-AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS,
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH DEEP MIXING IN AN ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF
MOISTURE. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR BENEATH STRONG H85 AND H7 FLOW
WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFERS PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM, WITH RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR
VARIOUS SITES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING LOWER 90S READINGS
WHICH LAST OCCURRED FOR MARCH AT NORTH PLATTE IN 2017 AND ONLY EVER
BEFORE THAT. A COMPRESSING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND IT'S THIS AREA THAT
COULD SEE A GREATER INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
CONFIDENCE IS MORE LIMITED IN SEEING DAYTIME RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES WHILE THE RECORD HEAT, GUSTY WINDS, AND CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY SAFELY WARRANT THE NEW FIRE WEATHER WATCH. LATER THAT
EVENING, A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAPID PRESSURE RISES AT THE SURFACE WITH INCREASING H85 FLOW
BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH WILL PROMOTE STRONG NORTHERLY GUSTS ONCE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM TIMING GIVEN FAIRLY BETTER
HANDLING OF CRASHING FRONTS FROM STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS
SUGGESTS A 10PM TO 4AM CDT NORTH TO SOUTH PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
GIVEN THE STRONGER FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE, GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 30 MPH AND POTENTIALLY CLIMB TO 45 MPH. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
30+ KNOT GUSTS ACTUALLY PEAK BETWEEN MIDNIGHT CDT AND DAYBREAK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED CLEANED UP WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS BUT CONCERN IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR DAYTIME IMPACTS FOLLOWED BY
A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WITH INCREASING GUSTS TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A LARGE WATCH AT THIS RANGE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
FORECAST HIGHS VS RECORD (YEAR OF LAST OCCURRENCE)
FRIDAY 03/20 SATURDAY 03/21
NORTH PLATTE 84/83 (1997) 91/86 (1910)
VALENTINE 82/83 (1997) 89/84 (1910)
BROKEN BOW 84/82 (2004) 90/83 (1997)
IMPERIAL 86/83 (1910) 94/87 (1907)
FORECAST HIGHS AT NORTH PLATTE, IMPERIAL, AND VALENTINE WOULD BREAK
ALL-TIME MARCH RECORDS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ
CLIMATE...NMJ
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