670  
FXUS63 KLBF 110533  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
1233 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL  
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A  
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.  
 
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA  
FRIDAY, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE  
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  
 
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE  
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
CURRENTLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SANDHILLS, WITH  
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS. SOME ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW, ALONG WITH BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM  
EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER COMPLEX  
EVOLUTION IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA, NEAR A THERMALLY REINFORCED SURFACE TROUGH. NEAR THIS  
BOUNDARY, BACKED LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS LEADING TO AMPLE LOW-LEVEL  
CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS. THIS POINTS TOWARDS AN INITIAL  
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY 183.  
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ALL SEVERE  
HAZARDS, WITH THE TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAXIMIZING PRIOR  
TO ANY UPSCALE GROWTH. AS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH, GUIDANCE HAS  
LARGELY POINTED AT THIS OCCURRING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AS  
STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP  
STORM MODE DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
FURTHER SOUTHWEST, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN  
FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO NEAR A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT  
EXTENDS INTO THE SANDHILLS, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH A THREAT  
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGELY  
STRAIGHT-LINE IN THIS REGIME, AND DO LOOK TO LENGTHEN WITH TIME  
THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY  
EARLY EVENING.  
 
CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW  
MORNING, THOUGH SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION.  
 
A COLD FRONT THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS  
A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER  
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
IS EXPECTED AGAIN, WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS. THIS WILL LARGELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA, AS THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND  
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND  
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT, AND SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY, MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING DRIER  
CONDITIONS, WITH A REPRIEVE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A  
QUICK WARMUP IS THEN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW  
90S, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH  
A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING  
AT A FEW SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MEAN FLOW  
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INTO  
MIDWEEK, AND ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED  
CLOSELY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS. THEREFORE,  
LIMITED AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING  
CEILINGS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORMS RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EVENING. STORMS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING  
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2, HOWEVER, STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AND NOT  
ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE STORMS. REGARDLESS, HAVE INCLUDED A TSRA  
MENTION FOR KLBF FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BROWN  
LONG TERM...BROWN  
AVIATION...KULIK  
 
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