122
FXUS63 KLBF 281201
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
601 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG DURATION, SLOW SNOWFALL EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 2" POSSIBLE.
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS 5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE APPARENT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WESTERLY FLOW PERSIST IN THE LOCAL AREA AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRACKS EAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE DIVIDING LINE TO
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR TO THE EAST AND AND MARITIME POLAR WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LOW STRATUS WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW
RIBBON OF RICHER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE OVERALL PLUME SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE NORTH AND EAST TO MIDDLE TEENS AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 20S WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. EVEN AS WINDS REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE WEST, FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD IN THE RELATIVE SENSE WITH LARGELY POSITIVE
VALUES AREA-WIDE.
TODAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH BACK ON THE
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND EFFECTIVELY TIGHTEN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME, TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE AT H85
WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 5C WHICH NEARS THE 75TH PERCENTILE IN LBF RAOB
DATA FOR THE DATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT
AND USED A NBM/MET/MAV BLEND TO PRODUCE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EVEN WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL FAIL TO SCOUR OUT AS KINEMATIC MIXING LIMITS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEPTH. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL APPROACH 25 PERCENT FOR A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS BUT WINDS LARGELY 20 MPH OR LESS LIMIT GREATER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FURTHER NORTHEAST, WITH PRIMARILY NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE SURFACE AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE, HAVE HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A LONG DURATION, SLOW SNOWFALL EVENT IS LIKELY, WITH A QUICK START
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE
WINDOWS, WITH DETAILS FOR EACH OUTLINED BELOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND WILL SET UP OVER THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS. A SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SETTLE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS CONVERGENCE AND THE FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION INCREASES. A NARROW PLUME OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL FOLLOW OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DEEP-LAYER SATURATION IS GREAT AND THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. BROUGHT PRECIPITATION IN EARLIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST (10PM-MIDNIGHT) WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
POPS (UP TO 50%). THIS ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH HREF PROBABILITIES
THAT SHOW MEASURABLE SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF A VALENTINE TO ORD
LINE UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE PROBABILITIES DECREASE. NBM QPF
CONTINUES TO RUN LIGHT, UNDERCUTTING MOST DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS BY OVER 50% SO INCREASED FORECAST LIQUID AMOUNTS. THE
NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.10" LIQUID WHICH
TRANSLATES TO ABOUT 1" OF SNOW USING A 15:1 CONVERSION. A FEW
HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS, THE RAP/HRRR/NAM NEST, SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OR TWO GENERALLY 40 MILES OR LESS IN
WIDTH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SHOULD THESE MATERIALIZE, A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE CLOSER TO 2-3" OF SNOW. WIND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR NEAR 0% PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS EXCEEDING
15 MPH DURING ACTIVE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL WANE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS LIFT WANES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S AND LOW 30S FOR AREAS THAT SEE SNOW WITH
MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER WESTERLY SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN LATER
IN THE EVENING. RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL DRIVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SIMILAR, IF NOT MORE WEST, LOCATIONS.
MESOSCALE LIFT IS WEAK AND DETERMINISTICS SHOW LESS BANDING
POTENTIAL AS A RESULT. HOW FAR WEST THIS SECOND ROUND OF SNOW
MATERIALIZES REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW BROAD SNOW
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, EXTENDED HIGH-
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP ARE MUCH FURTHER EAST. THE
GOING FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
EXTENDING ALONG A VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW LINE. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED EXTENDED WEST IF ENSEMBLES ARE CORRECT OR SHIFTED EAST 50+
MILES IF THE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT. THE LARGE DISCREPANCY
STEMS FOR PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE STRONGER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
TEND TO FAVOR THE FURTHER WEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EPS/GEFS CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE PLACEMENT. EITHER WAY,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF LIQUID RESULTING IN LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW. THE GREATER
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 30S
SOUTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THAT NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AND WITH INCREASING WINDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE A CONCERN AS THEY FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUICK TEMPERATURE REBOUND. THOUGH NBM INNER-
QUARTILE SPREADS REMAIN HIGH FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, NBM 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE VALUES SHOW 5-10F CLIMBS DAY-OVER-DAY. COLD AIR WILL
LINGER IN THE EAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER
30S, BUT MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WEST FOR MORE EXPANSIVE
UPPER 30S AND MIDDLE 40S. THE INCREASED WAA WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR THE DAKOTAS BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LIMITS
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EVEN BULLISH OUTPUT SUGGESTS LIGHT RAIN AND
OR SNOW WITH LITTLE IMPACTS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH HEIGHT RISES SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE NBM FORECAST ENVELOPE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAVORS UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND MAY INTRODUCE SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA BUT SHOULDN'T AFFECT TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. WITH THE WARMER
VALUES BELIEVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IF NOT ALL SNOW WILL BE FAVORED.
MUCH STRONGER RIDGING, 580+ DAM H5 HEIGHTS, SHOULD DEVELOP FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BOOST TO
TEMPERATURES AS EPS/GEFS MEAN VALUES CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 50S BUT
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HINTING AT 60S. HOW SIGNIFICANT THE WARM UP
BECOMES REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
AN EARLY START TO MORE SPRING-LIKE VALUES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE
THE FINAL FEW HOURS.
OVERALL, WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MILD AND DRY DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
LATER TODAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE WEST AND PROMOTE
STEADILY DECREASING CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND MAY
THREATEN VTN. HAVE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF -SN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNDER MVFR CIGS WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING BEYOND THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
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