670
FXUS63 KLBF 110533
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1233 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
CURRENTLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SANDHILLS, WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS. SOME ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW, ALONG WITH BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER COMPLEX
EVOLUTION IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, NEAR A THERMALLY REINFORCED SURFACE TROUGH. NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY, BACKED LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS LEADING TO AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS. THIS POINTS TOWARDS AN INITIAL
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY 183.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS, WITH THE TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAXIMIZING PRIOR
TO ANY UPSCALE GROWTH. AS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH, GUIDANCE HAS
LARGELY POINTED AT THIS OCCURRING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AS
STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
STORM MODE DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN
FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO NEAR A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE SANDHILLS, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGELY
STRAIGHT-LINE IN THIS REGIME, AND DO LOOK TO LENGTHEN WITH TIME
THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, THOUGH SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION.
A COLD FRONT THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS
A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED AGAIN, WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. THIS WILL LARGELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, AS THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, AND SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY, MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS, WITH A REPRIEVE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A
QUICK WARMUP IS THEN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH
A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING
AT A FEW SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MEAN FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INTO
MIDWEEK, AND ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS. THEREFORE,
LIMITED AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING
CEILINGS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORMS RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. STORMS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2, HOWEVER, STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AND NOT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE STORMS. REGARDLESS, HAVE INCLUDED A TSRA
MENTION FOR KLBF FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...KULIK
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