104
FXUS63 KLBF 172335
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
635 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM CT THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THEN DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES, ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH WINDS DECREASING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, LOWS TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH
LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN LOWER SPOTS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS, ETC.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM CT AS WINDS DO
STAY UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT THEN QUICKLY DECREASE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE RATHER POOR
OVERNIGHT, BUT FORTUNATELY, AS MENTIONED, WINDS DECREASE.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED THE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS WINDS DECREASE THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. FRIDAY, DEW POINTS BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HUMIDITY ON THE
RISE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT. MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH CONTINUED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED
AND HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
60S SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST THE AREA. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH ANY LATE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MODE EARLY
ON, TRANSITIONING TO POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
EVENING AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SHOWERY, AS MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS, AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DAMPENS AND
CROSSES THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION
NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE, AND WILL INTERACT WITH ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
AREA. DETAILS ON ANY SEVERE ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL
BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS THEN REMAIN NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AT 10 TO 15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROWN
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