253
FXUS63 KLBF 032104
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- LIGHT, SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONCERNS, STRONG WINDS
AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SW TROF WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OUT OF EASTERN WY/WESTERN SD INTO THE SANDHILLS.
WEAK LIFT HAS ALREADY GENERATED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY/SD AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS IT
SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD. HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
MAINTAINING INTO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS. THEN AS THE TROF SPREADS
SOUTHEAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER IN CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN, THUS THE FURTHER SOUTH IT TRACKS THE LESS
LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME.
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR TOMORROW, HOWEVER THE PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF AND
GENERALLY FOR PORTIONS OF FIRE WX ZONES 210 AND 219. THE LOWEST
RH VALUES (AROUND 20%) WILL BE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL START TO SEE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE IN WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASINGS AS
WELL. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN RH VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FIRE WX ZONES 210 AND 219 AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT, DID LOWER POPS A
LITTLE AS THINKING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE SCATTERED
PRECIP, RATHER THAN A STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT IN NATURE, GENERALLY EXPECT A 50 PERCENT OR LESS
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANY QPF VALUES GREATER THAN 0.5 IN THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO GREATER QPF VALUES WITH A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER TO SEE AROUND A 0.10" OR MORE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
OVER THE DAY TUESDAY, WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE QPF TOTAL VALUES GREATER THAN A QUARTER
INCH, POTENTIAL EVEN UP TO 0.5 INCHES OR MORE, CLOSER TO THE NE/CO
BORDER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
THE GREATEST. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT,
WITH THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE VALUES AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES AND
THE 75TH PERCENTILE UP TO 0.40 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, WITH GEFS GUIDANCE FAVORING A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WHILE THE EPS KEEPS HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE GEFS SOLUTION IS
FAVORED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FORECAST MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER INCH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PERKINS, CHASE, AND HAYES COUNTIES.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS,
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING, AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION, SUPPORTING A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
SANDHILLS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND NORTHWEST
WINDS STRENGTHEN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE EXTENT OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE WETTING RAINFALL FORECASTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK, THOUGH DRYING FUELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE, SUPPORTING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME, THOUGH LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AND MARGINAL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP
THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ/LABENZ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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