048
FXUS63 KLBF 020543
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COMBINATION OF EARLY MORNING FOG FOLLOWED BY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ICE COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES FOR ALL
SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
- THE WARMTH, LACK OF RECENT PRECIPITATION, AND INCOMING DRY AIR WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH OF THE NEXT SIX
DAYS WITH GREATEST CONCERN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EMANATING FROM WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEANWHILE, THE
MISSOURI RIVER SERVES AS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BARRIER BETWEEN
LINGERING LOW STRATUS/FOG TO THE EAST AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEAR
SKIES TO THE WEST. GIVEN THE LOCAL AREA'S POSITION ALONG THE MAJOR
RIVER CORRIDOR, FOG HAS LARGELY SETTLED OUT OF THE AREA AND POSES NO
IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR NOW. A PASSING WARM
FRONT HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY CLIMB AS A RESULT. VALUES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S FOR MOST OUTSIDE FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT HAS LIMITED THE WARM UP TO ONLY THE LOW 40S AS OF 21Z
(3PM CST).
FOR TONIGHT...MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND
EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
INCREASING LEE-TROUGHING WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO FLIP TO THE
SOUTH LATE, DRAWING IN INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG. THIS IS LARGELY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. SREF/HREF PROBABILITIES ARE BOTH LOW FOR SEEING < 1SM
VISIBILITY, LIMITED TO 10% OR LESS, THEREFORE WILL KEEP MENTION TO
PATCHY AS A RESULT. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS OUR EAST
BUT SHOULD HOLD ONTO THE MIDDLE 30 FOR THE PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS FROM WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
INITIALLY TO THE SOUTH THEN TO THE WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING. THIS WILL PROPEL A WARM FRONT WEST TO EAST
AND RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 290-300K SURFACES
WITHIN A PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO TOP DOWN
SATURATION AND WITH WEAK OMEGA, DO EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL SATURATED MID-LEVEL SUPPORTING ICE
INTRODUCTION INTO THE COLUMN. MEANWHILE, LINGERING DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE AROUND THE
H8 LEVEL. THIS INTRODUCES A THAW/REFREEZE ELEMENT TO THE EQUATION
WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. HREF PROBABILITIES
HIGHLIGHT ROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES OF FZRA/IP (~25-30% OF BEING
DOMINANT P-TYPE) FOR A FEW OF OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BUT FURTHER EVALUATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHALLOW WARM NOSE WITH DEEPER COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS
MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN DUE TO LACK OF COMPLETE MELTING OF
HYDROMETEORS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST, LARGELY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER, ONGOING PRECIPITATION, AND COOLER EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME WINTER TRAVEL HAZARDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY. POPS WERE CLOSELY TIED TO HREF PROBABILITIES
WITH BLENDS TOWARDS RAP/GFS 1HR/HRRR OUTPUTS. THIS RESULTS IN A
WINDOW FROM AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WHERE
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. QPF REMAINS LIGHT AND CLOSELY
RESEMBLES HREF PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN VALUES WHICH LIMITS AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THIS RESULTS IN PERHAPS A DUSTING OF SNOW/SLEET
AND POTENTIALLY A GLAZE OF ICE, MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
SLICKNESS CONCERNS. FOLKS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE THREATS, FOCUSED
NORTHEAST OF A VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW LINE, THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE, MUCH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S EAST TO WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS WARM WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESUME
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RETURN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANT
WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION. ECWMF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI)
HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALIES
WITH VALUES OF 0.6-0.7 ON ANY GIVEN DAY BUT MOST IMPRESSIVE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH VALUES OF 0.8+ AND NON-ZERO SHIFT OF TAILS
(SOT). NBM SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES REMAIN SMALL SUGGESTING FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE WITH EVEN 25TH PERCENTILE VALUES
REACHING THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NBM 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES
THREATEN JANUARY ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH LBF AND VTN (74F AND
72F RESPECTIVELY) SO RECORD WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY AGAIN.
REGARDLESS, AFTERNOON HIGHS 25-35F ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROMOTE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE TIMEFRAME.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALTER SOME AS MULTIPLE
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT COOLING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT STILL LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
VALUES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S AND 50S OR ROUGHLY 15-25F ABOVE
NORMAL. AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY TRACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS COULD SPELL THE END OF THE
RECENT DRY SPELL AND MAY INTRODUCE MORE EXPANSIVE POPS TO THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN FAIRLY SPLIT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
AND SO CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE REMAINS LIMITED. THE INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (< 25%) SEEM ADEQUATE FOR NOW WITH FURTHER
REFINEMENTS LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW, FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS
FREEZING RAIN AROUND 12Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BY THE AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE WINTRY MIX WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF KLBF, BUT SOME LOWERING OF
CEILINGS DOWN TO AT LEAST 6000 FEET COULD BE OBSERVED THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. AFTER PRECIPITATION PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION,
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2000 FEET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE RISING BACK INTO VFR CONDITIONS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...KULIK
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