004
FXUS63 KLBF 061930
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
230 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT
SEEING WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN.
- CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASE, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S AND TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S IN PLACES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
TONIGHT, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND THE ONGOING FREEZE WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TODAY'S STORM SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, WITH HEIGHT RISES DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WHILE
THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT, THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TO SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FIRST, AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM GOING COMPLETELY CALM. SECOND,
RECENT RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. LASTLY, WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 6 TO 9C RANGE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING
AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE HREF SHOWS VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE NBM CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PROBABILITIES ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE FREEZE
WARNING AREA. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, AND SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR UNLIKELY.
THURSDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES,
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 14 TO 18C RANGE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES POTENTIALLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH SHOULD PRELUDE ANY GREATER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OR DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT BECOMES
GREATER, STRONGER WINDS COULD INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOW MUCAPE AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW. WITH INCREASING
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL ALSO INCREASE. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT, CAM GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SPOTTY QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
0.15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS.
FRIDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW, THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE LOWER RH VALUES, LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT, THOUGH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE DURING THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY WITHIN THE
FLOW. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A LIMITED AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE
AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH PWATS
TO AROUND 135% OF NORMAL PRIOR TO ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS MID-LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CAPE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDER, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY LOOK LIGHT, WITH OVERALL
PROBABILITIES ONLY MARGINAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE SO SPOTTIER HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REALLY BEGIN TO WARM MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HEIGHTS RISE BENEATH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH H7 TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SOME LIMITED GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOWER TO MID 50S DEW POINTS
REACHING CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE WARMER H7 TEMPERATURES OFF TO THE WEST, AND COULD SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
MIX EASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF MUCH UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS WITH
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT 15 KTS OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
CDT /7 AM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ022-035>037-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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