410
FXUS63 KLBF 150536
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- NEAR DAILY THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 90S ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH A GRADIENT IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THIS IS LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA IN
TWO SEPARATE REGIMES. THE FIRST WOULD BE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITIONED NEAR HIGHWAY 61. HERE, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW, LARGELY TIED
TO DRY AIR ALOFT (VERY DRY LFC-LCL RH VALUES) AND MEAGER
FORCING. STILL, SHOULD A STORM BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN, A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST, GIVEN ADEQUATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30- 35KTS). WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
LOW-END THREAT FOR A LANDSPOUT TORNADO ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ALSO LOW FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE THIS
EVENING, LEADING TO A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS. EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THIS THREAT EXPANDS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE, AS STORMS SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT.
A SIMILAR DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY, AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AND
BOOSTS TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, SHOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100 FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS. BY FRIDAY EVENING, YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARDS INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA, AND
PROMOTE NEAR DAILY THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AND THIS KEEPS HEAT CONCERNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. AS A CONSEQUENCE, HAVE ADDED PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO A HEAT ADVISORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
GREATEST IN HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100. SOME THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY REMAINS LOW FOR NOW AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE KVTN TERMINAL
BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KVTN
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ007-010-026>029-037-038-
057>059-069>071.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ007-010-
028-029.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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