052
FXUS63 KLBF 051133
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE OF CONCERN TODAY AS WELL AS THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY THAT CONTINUES. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT CONTINUES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS
NORTHEAST CO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NE. LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S INVOF OF THE INVERTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH A PLUME OF FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CREATE VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NE INTO SOUTHERN SD. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES. WHILE THE
STRONGEST SHEAR REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS SD, THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL FAVOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
THAT MAY OCCUR TODAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM O'NEILL
TO OGALLALA. MID AFTERNOON IS WHEN THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FIRST
BEGIN. THESE COULD BE RATHER PULSEY BUT STILL POSE A WIND THREAT AND
LESSER CHANCE FOR HAIL. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SD AND CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND CONCERN WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
SD WITHIN THE HIGHLY SHEARED, VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
QUESTION HERE IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS COULD SKIRT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE NE/SD BORDER. BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY SEEM TO STAND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND.
MOST CAMS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SURGE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS OF
100 TO 104F FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83.
WEDNESDAY'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. A LOT
HINGES ON HOW THE ACTIVITY UNFOLDS TODAY. IF STRONG OUTFLOW DOES
INDEED PUSH SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA THEN RECOVERY COULD BE IN
QUESTION. NEVERTHELESS THE MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. MANY IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW CONTINUING
THE UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE PATTERN. ONE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO STALL FROM WESTERN NE INTO EASTERN CO AND
WESTERN KS. STORMS FIRE ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE
UPPER FLOW THEN CARRYING THE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THIS OCCURS
MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS SHEAR DECREASES AND MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THIS OCCURS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RETURNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. WILL WATCH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND PRECISE PLACEMENT FOR STORM INITIATION,
WILL COVER PERIODS OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH VCTS MENTIONS FOR
NOW. MODELS VARY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SOMEWHAT SO WILL NEED TO
REFINE WITH LATER FORECASTS. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO BRIEFLY
MVFR POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH MORE
PROLONGED IMPACTS EXPECTED AT LBF BEFORE CLEARING OUT JUST PRIOR
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ007>010-026>029-037-038-059-070-071.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...NMJ
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