904
FXUS63 KLBF 082055
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PASSING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING,
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LOW.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS IS COINCIDENT
WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE PLAINS AS BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
1PM CST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. A
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION, LARGELY IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WAS
STRETCHING FROM NEAR NORTH PLATTE UP THROUGH ROCK/HOLT COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BENEATH THIS BAND, THANKS TO STRONG FGEN
DRIVING INCREASED PRECIPITATION AND RESULTANT WET BULBING, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
TONIGHT...FGEN FORCING HELPING DRIVE THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO DISSIPATE AND
PRECIPITATION TO END. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY SURFACES BUT WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY ABOVE FREEZING, LITTLE
TO NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ACTIVE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES FALL WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO
THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS, SO ANY LINGERING WET SPOTS COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME
SLICK. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20F FOR THE AREA
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. LATE TONIGHT, A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING. WEAK FORCING COULD
REINTRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONE, PARTICULARLY
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE ROBUST WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
CARRY ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (< 25%) FOR
SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. THIS WOULD FALL AS SNOW BUT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FRIDAY...EARLIER CONCERNS ABOUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. ANY EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY
IN OUR WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE HIGHWAY 61
CORRIDOR. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKENING LIFT AND VERY
DRY AIR BEHIND THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR
WILL ALSO WORK TO ERODE THE LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST SKIES. SOME
FOLKS, ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES, SHOULD GET A GLIMPSE OF THE
SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLKS IN THE EAST COULD SEE SIMILAR, BUT
LATER IN THE DAY THUS A SHORTER PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S, SIMILAR TO VALUES ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, HOWEVER, AND HAVE BOOSTED GUSTS
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE RELATIVELY COOL, THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THOUGH NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...A MODEST MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF BROAD TROUGHING, LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PHASE
OVER IOWA WITH A RESULTANT DEEPENING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY
TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL MISS US, HOWEVER, INCREASED MID AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE PLACEMENT IN THIS FEATURE REMAIN MEDIUM AT
BEST, WITH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS VARYING BY 50-100 MILES. A LOOK
AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS A BETTER PICTURE WITH EPS/GEFS
PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHTING A PHILIP, SD THROUGH VALENTINE, NE LINE
WHERE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH CLIMB TO THE 20-
40% RANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW SATURATION BUT ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE ICE NUCLEI WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
AND VISIBILITY ISSUES. NBM PROBABILITIES OF < 3SM VISIBILITY SHOW A
MODEST BUMP, COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
EXISTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL BUT FOR NOW, WILL
MESSAGE AS SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDER WHERE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, LOW TO MIDDLE 30S, WITH
40S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...A PERIOD OF LARGELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DEEP TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BROAD RIDGING BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, BUT NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ARE LIKELY FROM
THESE. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED UP FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN 40S/50S REACHING THE 50S/60S FOR THE WORK WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW (< 25%). WHAT
DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN IS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LIMITED, HOWEVER, GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN NBM MEMBERS. UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFIES AS A STRONG
DISTURBANCE SITS OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTH WILL INTRODUCE RECURRING SHOTS
OF COLD AIR. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS NOMINAL FOR THE DAY 6 AND
BEYOND RANGE, BUT INNER-QUARTILE VALUES SHOW A SIZABLE DROP BY
FRIDAY. EPS/GEFS GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING
WITH DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD. OVERALL, THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE CORE OF
COLD AIR MISSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. HREF PROBABILITIES OF <
3000 FT AGL CEILINGS REMAIN HIGHER TO THE EAST SO WILL KEEP OUT
OF LBF. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF NORTH
PLATTE UP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER IN THE AREA BUT DURATION OF IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN BRIEF THUS WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
TONIGHT, CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LOW STRATUS APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING FRIDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
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