260
FXUS63 KLBF 291858
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
158 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING WINDS MAY ALLOW FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO REEMERGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. MODELS INDICATE MEAGER ELEVATED CAPE IN THE 100-400 J/KG
RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY STRONG, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW,
THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING REMAINS HIGH, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DRY LIGHTNING. IN TERMS OF QPF, THE HREF 50TH PERCENTILE
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.05 TO 0.20 INCHES, MAINLY FROM THE
NORTH PLATTE AREA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH THE HIGHER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. HREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
0.15 INCHES OVERNIGHT. THE NBM IS SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES APPROACHING 50 PERCENT NEAR
IMPERIAL AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES WILL OCCUR, WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS APPROACHING ONE-QUARTER INCH, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SPOTTY.
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND COMBINED
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY, WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS, SO NO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH LIGHT
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AND
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION, INCREASING LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS, THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SUGGESTING POPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVERDONE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH NORTH
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES
AND CALMER CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL IN THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. BY
FRIDAY, A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH, KEEPING FIRE
CONCERNS LOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 70S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL, WITH AFTERNOON
MINIMUMS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE RECENT WETTING
RAINFALL, DRYING FUELS COMBINED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND INCREASING
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO REEMERGE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE EAST, POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING, AND CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS AT THIS CURRENT TIME REMAINS LOW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SECOND, MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. CURRENTLY, THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SOMETIME TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY, AND IT MAY SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN BOTH TIMING AND PLACEMENT, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS RANGE. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM LIKELY WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT
DO INCREASE FOR A TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE
10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LABENZ
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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