831
FXUS63 KLBF 201122
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF
A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BIAS CORRECTED
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ARE LIKELY, WITH NEAR 90F POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN SD AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING RATHER GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE
FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL TURN NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN NE THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
GRADUALLY SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY EVENING, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN NE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED T-
STORMS, WITH SOME MUCAPE PRESENT. OTHERWISE IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER
EASTER SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN
NE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO TX TUE THRU THU. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A SEPARATE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO GULF MOISTURE BEING DIRECTED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AHEAD OF THE TX SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL TO START THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY. A QUICK RECOVERY IS EXPECTED HOWEVER, WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-30KTS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOWERED CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S
AND 90S THIS AFTERNOON AS CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED UNDER THIS RIDGE. THE RIDGE ADVANCES EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH WILL
HELP INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS. AS SUCH, WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH THOSE WIND GUSTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. STILL, THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RH IN THE
MID-TEENS TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST
CONDITIONS BUT LESSER WIND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC TROUGH.
GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE ARE REMNANT SNOW
DRIFTS FROM THE BLIZZARD OF NEARLY 10 DAYS AGO, SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN HOW CRITICAL THE FUELS REALLY ARE. IN ADDITION, THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS ARE RUNNING SOME 200-300% OF NORMAL IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS. SO OUR OLD GROWTH
FUELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST
WERE COMPACTED UNDER SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FROM LATE WINTER. GIVEN THE
CURRENT STATUS OF THE FUELS AND THE FACT THAT THE EXPECTED AREAL
EXTENT OF THE NEAR-CRITICAL RFW CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED, WE
WILL NOT ISSUE A RFW AT THIS TIME. BUT KNOW THAT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION OF THE NEAR-CRITICAL RFW CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE VALENTINE REFUGE. THIS AREA
INCLUDES CRESCENT LAKE NWR AND THE BESSEY RANGER DISTRICTS. ALSO
KNOW THAT THIS IS GENERAL AREA THAT WAS HIT THE HARDEST NEARLY 10
DAYS AGO WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF SNOW AND LIQUID QPF OF 1-1.50".
THE RIDGE BREAKSDOWN TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO COOLER
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...THORNE
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
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