768
FXUS63 KLBF 020733
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
233 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING.
- ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT.
- WINDY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH.
- DRY AND MILD IN THE 60S SUNDAY, THEN COOLING TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS, ONE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND A SECOND ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z,
ENTERING EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 15Z THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
18Z BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE WESTERN THIRD OF NEBRASKA BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT INTO
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST AS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL APPROACH 70 FOR IMPERIAL.
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE RIDGE, A H5 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK FROM
IDAHO INTO WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEY WERE LOWERED SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EXPECTED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS
THE H5 LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. AS FOR PTYPES
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO FACILITATE ALL
RAIN. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME WARMER AIR,
OVER-RUNNING A SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER IN FAR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. I DID GO AHEAD AND PUT IN A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN. ATTM: WITH QPF'S VERY LIGHT-ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AND TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AT THE FREEZING MARK,
BELIEVE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, ENDING UP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY, I WENT AHEAD AND TIGHTENED UP POPS
AND GENERALLY CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ATTM, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE THE BEST THREAT FOR WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION IS GREATEST. TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL COOL FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S, THE THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY IS FAIRLY LOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE GFS, NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TRACKING AN H5
LOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 12Z SATURDAY.
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WITH COLDER H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C, THE PINE RIDGE AREA IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA TO RECEIVE
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, POTENTIAL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO FRIDAY
EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA CAN EXPECTED
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. WITH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE H5 LOW
TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LARGELY WITHIN A DRY SLOT, ONLY NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION, WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY. A FAIRLY TIGHT H7 GRADIENT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NCTRL NE. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH, AS THE NBM
FORECAST ENSEMBLE GIVES A 60 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 40S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS, TO 3
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (60 TO 65 DEGREES) IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A WARMUP, AHEAD OF COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTHWEST MONDAY, THEN
MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND MID TO UPPER 50S EAST ON TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FROM EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHTIME INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AND MUCH WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS
MORNING. AT KVTN, -SN WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 1 1/2SM AT KVTN
THROUGH 08Z, WITH LIFR CEILINGS PERSISTING UNTIL 17Z. AT KLBF,
6SM -RA THROUGH 09Z AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. AFTER 09Z, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR,
WITH LOW CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT BY 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
LLWS OF WS020/16045KT IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z FRIDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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