364  
FGUS71 KBOX 101722  
ESFBOX  
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-  
027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-121730-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
1222 PM EST THU JAN 10 2019  
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL
 
 
 
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. THE FLOOD THREAT FROM ICE JAMS IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL.  
 
THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE HAS A MAP DEPICTING THE FRESHWATER FLOOD  
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/SPRINGFLOODPOTENTIAL.  
 
THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2019  
SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW  
WATER EQUIVALENT, STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE  
COVERAGE, RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES, AND EXPECTED  
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  
   
..RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
 
 
DECEMBER 2018 BROUGHT NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE  
AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED FROM AN INCH BELOW NORMAL TO AN  
INCH OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS ACROSS  
NORTHEAST MA, WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WAS 1 TO  
AROUND 1.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
THE MAJORITY OF DECEMBER'S PRECIPITATION FELL AS RAIN, PROVIDING A  
CONTINUED BOOST TO BOTH SOIL MOISTURE AND AREA RIVERS. MAJOR  
CLIMATE SITES WITHIN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONLY HAD UP TO A FEW  
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW, MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.  
ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES AVERAGED 1.5 TO 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
JANUARY 2019 PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAINFALL.  
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE RANGED  
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CT, RI, AND SOUTHEAST  
MA. THIS WAS 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. ACROSS THE REMAINDER  
OF MA, PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WHICH WAS  
AROUND NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MONTH TO DATE HAVE RANGED FROM 4 TO  
OVER 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
 
SNOW DEPTH WAS ZERO TO A TRACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE  
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS, WHERE A PATCHY  
LIGHT SNOW DEPTH MAINLY AT AN INCH OR LESS WAS REPORTED. A SNOW  
DEPTH OF 4 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN ROWE, IN FAR NORTHWEST MA. WHERE  
SNOW PACK EXISTED, WATER EQUIVALENT WAS AN INCH OR LESS. BOTH SNOW  
PACK AND WATER EQUIVALENT WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID  
JANUARY.  
   
..RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. TWO  
SOAKING RAINFALL EVENTS IN EARLY JANUARY, ONE DURING NEW YEAR'S EVE  
INTO NEW YEARS DAY, AND A SECOND EVENT ON JANUARY 6, CONTRIBUTED  
TO THE HIGH FLOWS.  
 
THE RAINFALL EVENTS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE PRECLUDED  
SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS WINTER.  
   
..SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
SOILS WERE EXTREMELY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXCEPT FOR THE  
TOP-MOST SOIL LAYER, THE GROUND WAS LARGELY THAWED.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING TODAY, WITH ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE  
UNDER AN INCH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH  
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
CONTINUED DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR  
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI DURING  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE MID  
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE WEEK 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, FOR JANUARY  
17 TO 23, CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE FRESHWATER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE  
NORMAL, AND SOIL MOISTURE IS QUITE HIGH. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET  
BY THE LACK OF A SNOWPACK IN THE REGION, AND THE ANTICIPATION OF  
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS. THIS WILL  
ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO VERY GRADUALLY RECEDE.  
 
ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE WAS LACKING THRU TODAY, THE CHANGE TO MORE  
SEASONABLE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER ICE.  
 
KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE  
YEAR. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD  
EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND  
CLICK ON THE OPTION CURRENT HAZARDS, THEN CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK.  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY,  
JANUARY 24, 2019.  
 

 
 
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES, PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON  
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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON  
 
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@NWSBOSTON  
 
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