834  
FNUS71 KBOX 291306  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JOSHUA HILL FIRE...LEVERETT FIRE DEPARTMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
906 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JUNE 29.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
RISK OF A SHOWER AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT MOST  
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT A  
RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MIN  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO WASHOUTS  
EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH  
THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................54 PERCENT INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............65.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...73.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (23800-49800 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................38 INCREASING TO 48 IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 41 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......2.0 INCREASING TO 4.5.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........91 91 91 92 94 89 95 95  
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ ISO SCH CHC SCH  
CWR.............50 50 50 50 100 100 100 100  
TEMP............70 72 72 73 73 72 72 72  
DEWPOINT........65 66 66 66 65 65 65 64  
RH..............84 81 81 79 76 79 79 76  
HEAT INDEX (F)..70 72 72 73 73 72 72 72  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 5 5 5 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 10 10 12 13 13 12 12  
SURFACE WND DIR.N N N N N N N N  
SURFACE WND SPD.3 5 5 5 5 6 5 5  
SURFACE WND GST.9 10 10 12 13 13 12 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.2 4.0 3.3 3.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 13 13 14 14 13 13  
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............34 35 42 44 52 51 43 41  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100024 28 35 38 50 48 36 33  
CEILING (KFT)...2.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE  
EVENING. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
CWR.................100 PERCENT DECREASING TO 23 PERCENT UNTIL JUST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............62.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...72.  
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5  
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5  
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4500-20100 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................26 DECREASING TO 6 UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......4.0 DECREASING TO 0.8.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........95 95 94 94 95 95 91 89 82 84 86 89  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH ISO  
CWR.............100 100 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............72 70 68 68 66 66 65 65 65 65 65 65  
DEWPOINT........64 64 64 64 63 63 62 62 62 61 61 61  
RH..............76 81 87 87 90 90 90 90 90 87 87 87  
HEAT INDEX (F)..72 70 68 68 66 66 65 65 65 65 65 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8  
SURFACE WND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N  
SURFACE WND SPD.5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5  
SURFACE WND GST.12 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.8 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE N N N N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 9 9 8 9 7 8 9 9 10  
LVORI...........3 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5  
ADI.............28 24 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 6 8  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100020 16 18 8 8 6 8 6 7 5 5 6  
CEILING (KFT)...4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY  
IN THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG EARLY. SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................16 PERCENT INCREASING TO 78 PERCENT THROUGH  
EARLY AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............63.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...72.  
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND  
5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND  
5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3100 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (9400-37000 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................15 INCREASING TO 41.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......0.8 INCREASING TO 2.5.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........89 90 91 87 84 85 85 86 86 82 78 78  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ ISO SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH  
CWR.............20 20 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80  
TEMP............63 64 64 66 67 69 70 71 71 72 72 72  
DEWPOINT........61 62 62 63 63 64 64 65 65 65 64 64  
RH..............93 93 93 90 87 84 81 81 81 79 76 76  
HEAT INDEX (F)..63 64 64 66 67 69 70 71 71 72 72 72  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
SURFACE WND DIR.N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
SURFACE WND SPD.5 5 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
SURFACE WND GST.9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14  
LVORI...........5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............12 15 18 23 26 31 37 41 45 44 43 42  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10009 11 12 15 18 21 27 32 37 36 34 33  
CEILING (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5  
 

 
FORECASTER...GAUCHER  
REQUESTED BY...DEPUTY CHIEF COOK  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2008699.0/BOX  
.DELDT 06/29/20  
.EMAIL BRIAN@LEVERETTFIRE.COM  
 
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