856  
FNUS71 KBOX 101055  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HALL TAVERN FARM...COLRAIN FIRE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
655 AM EDT SAT APR 10 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON APRIL 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY  
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND. A COLD FRONT DROPS  
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY EASTERLY WINDS AND  
COLDER TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.  
 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45  
PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 60  
TO 65 PERCENT.  
 
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
A SLOW MOVING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAINTAIN NEAR TO  
BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER  
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............46 INCREASING TO 49 EARLY.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...74.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2500-32400 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................10 INCREASING TO 45.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......8.0 INCREASING TO 12, THEN INCREASING TO 15  
EARLY DECREASING TO 9.0 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
INCREASING TO 10 DECREASING TO 8.0 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 7.0 DECREASING TO 6.0  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........17 23 25 28 31 34 37 40 40 40 40  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............49 52 56 59 63 66 70 70 72 72 74  
DEWPOINT........45 45 47 48 50 49 49 48 48 48 48  
RH..............86 77 72 67 62 54 47 45 42 42 40  
HEAT INDEX (F)..49 52 56 59 63 66 70 70 72 72 74  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W SW SW SW S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.3 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9  
SURFACE WND DIR.W W W W W W SW SW SW S S  
SURFACE WND SPD.2 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6  
SURFACE WND GST.3 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9  
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............7 6 7 7 6 13 21 32 38 38 45  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10003 4 4 4 4 9 17 23 28 28 32  
CEILING (KFT)...8.0 8.0 8.0 12 15 9.0 9.0 10 8.0 7.0 6.0  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...71.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL  
UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (200-22600 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......11 INCREASING TO 15 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 20 EARLY INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN  
THE EVENING DECREASING TO 20 DECREASING TO 9.0  
EARLY IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 6.0  
DECREASING TO 4.0 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........33 27 20 22 37 41 44 47 50 57 65 72  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............71 68 65 62 59 57 56 55 54 52 51 50  
RH..............44 51 56 62 72 77 80 80 83 86 89 89  
HEAT INDEX (F)..71 68 65 62 59 57 56 55 54 52 51 50  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
SURFACE WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W N N  
SURFACE WND SPD.5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
SURFACE WND GST.8 8 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW S S S S S S SE E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 8 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/100023 11 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1  
CEILING (KFT)...11 15 20 25 25 25 20 20 20 9.0 6.0 4.0  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY. CHANCE OF LIGHT  
RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...57.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1600-17600 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......3.0 DECREASING TO 2.5 EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
THEN DECREASING TO 1.5 EARLY DECREASING TO 1.0  
LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 0.8  
DECREASING TO 0.3 EARLY INCREASING TO 0.8.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........81 98 95 96 100 100  
WEATHER COV..... AREAS S CHC S CHC CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE FOG RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............49 50 53 56 57 54  
RH..............93 93 83 74 72 74  
HEAT INDEX (F)..49 49 53 56 57 54  
20 FT WIND......N 2 E 3 E 2 E 3 E 6 E 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.3 5 3 5 9 9  
SURFACE WIND....N 2 E 3 E 2 E 3 E 6 E 6  
SURFACE WND GST.3 5 3 5 9 9  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 500 1000 1500 2100 1600  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 6 E 10 E 9 E 12 E 14 E 14  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10002 5 9 14 18 17  
CEILING (KFT)...3.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.8  
 

 
FORECASTER...WTB  
REQUESTED BY...LT. KEVIN WORDEN II  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2108528.0/BOX  
.DELDT 04/10/21  
.EMAIL 8MED5@LIVE.COM  
 
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