602
FXUS61 KBOX 141934
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
234 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LESS WIND AND COOL CONDITIONS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING OUT AND
BECOMING WINDY SUNDAY. BLUSTERY AND COOL WEATHER PREVAILS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN DIMINISHING WIND AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINT
*COLD BUT LESS WINDY OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW 20S.
ONE LAST ROUND OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE STALLED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL
MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING OTHER THAN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT, LEAVING SKIES CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. WITH DECREASING
WIND OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S TO EVEN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS
*CONTINUED COOL AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY
*RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES THE COLD POOL AWAY FROM THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM EXCEEDING 50°F FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT RAIN FROM THIS FRONT WONT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING, AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE. THUS, ONLY
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING, ALLOWING RAIN
TO BEGIN FALLING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
RUNS HAD SOME RESIDUAL COLD AIR IN PLACE AS THE RAIN ARRIVED,
RESULTING IN SOME MIXED P-TYPES; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS SINCE BACKED
OFF ON THIS, AS WET BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN
THE RAIN ARRIVES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH QPF TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES, WITH
POCKETS OF UP TO 0.75 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN A BIT
MILDER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID-30S WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN ENDING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE DRY AND WINDY THROUGH MONDAY.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
* RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS THE
CENTER HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POST FRONTAL DRY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS EARLY AS PWATS
FALL TO LESS THAN 0.3", CANNOT RULE OUT SPOT RAIN AND/OR FLURRY FROM
A PASSAGE OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHAT IS MORE NOTABLE DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME ARE THE
EXPECTED GUSTY CONDITIONS. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SUNDAY AIDS
WITH STEEP 1000MB-850MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-10C/KM, RESULTING IN A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMPTIONS ARE 80 PERCENT OF THE MOMENTUM CAN
TRANSFER FROM 850MB TO THE GROUND, LENDING TO GUSTS OF 30 AND 40 MPH
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS REASONABLY POSSIBLE AREAS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS COULD GUST OVER 50 MPH. A
QUICK LOOK AT DESI UTILIZING HREF SHOW PROBABILITIES OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT OF THESE GUSTS FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH PROBABILITES
BETWEEN 10 AND 30 PERCENT. SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THESE GUSTS NEAR
THE THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY. FOR MARINERS, GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
FAIRLY QUIET TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE LABRADOR SEA. NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
REMAINS, SHORTWAVES RACES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A DAILY CHANCE FOR HIT-OR-MISS SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES.
LATE WEEK, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BECOMES UNSETTLED WITH THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURE-WISE, WILL
HAVE BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z UPDATE...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN DIURNAL STRATO-CU 5-7K FT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, THEN CLEARING TONIGHT BUT OCEAN
EFFECT CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE OUTER CAPE. NW WIND GUSTS TO
20 KT TODAY, NW 5-10 KT TONIGHT BECOMING W-SW 5-10 KT SAT
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS AS RAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE REGION. GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR RAIN TIMING SEEMS
TO BE ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z - 04Z. RAIN COULD
BE MODERATE AT TIMES AND BRING CIGS DOWN TO IFR LEVEL, BUT NOT
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BECOMING LIFR WITH SW WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER.
SEAS DECREASE TO 1-3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
RAIN OUT AND BRINGS STRONG, GALE-FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SEAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD APPROACH 8-12 FEET.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT.
MONDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 13 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...DOOLEY/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...DOOLEY/KP
MARINE...DOOLEY/KP
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