342
FXUS61 KBOX 101920
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
320 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRI-SAT. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY.
- A QUICK BOUGHT OF SUMMER LIKE HEAT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
FRI-SAT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 40S AND
50S.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY, THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECTING RATHER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS
COULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S, WHILE THE MORE URBAN CENTERS SHOULD
BE 55-60.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LIKELY BRINGING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS WITH IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS SURGING TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES AND PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" BY SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME
HEAVIER BANDING SET UP, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
INITIAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT RAINFALL TOTALS UPWARDS OF
0.75", BUT WE'RE NOT QUITE WITHIN RANGE OF THE CAMS YET.
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN SOMETIME
LATER SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A QUICK BOUGHT OF SUMMER LIKE HEAT IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS WOULD INDICATE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND RETURNS TO PREDOMINANTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSHING
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH MIXING WE CAN GENERATE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR A DAY OR TWO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF LOW-END VFR POSSIBLE IN SOME DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GUSTY SW TO W WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS WHICH SHOULD DECOUPLE IN THE NORMAL LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 6-12 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT NW TO N FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING,
WITH ROUGH SEAS LINGERING LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AND
OUTER WATERS. ANTICIPATING THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED IN STAGES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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