469
FXUS61 KBOX 250719
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
319 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE THE RISK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT
CARRIES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE THE RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY,
CONTINUING THE DRIER WEATHER WE SAW YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH ONCE
MORE INTO THE 80S AND UPPER 70S.
THE PATTERN CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WHOSE CENTER WILL TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION. WITH IT, A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY,
PROGRESSING OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH REGARDS TO
THUNDER AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, THAT RISK IS QUITE LOW DUE
TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST CAMS. SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN MA AREN'T
OUT OF THE QUESTION, THOUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS TURNING
SEVERE IS TOWARDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AND
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COMPARED TO THURSDAY, IT
MAY FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AS A RESULT. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
NOT BEEN IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION, THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD JET
DYNAMICS WITH >40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER, WITH THE
LATEST RUNS, MORE OF A CONSENSUS HAS BEEN REACHED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. A NUMBER OF CAMS ARE FAVORING AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH AREAS OF 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN WESTERN MA
AND CT. MLCAPE VALUES IN THESE MODELS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THEM, AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RANGES BETWEEN 40-50 KT. ALL OF THIS COMBINED
WITH THE FORCING THAT WILL COME WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW'S COLD
FRONT COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS ALSO UNDER A
MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY. CONTINUE TO CHECK
BACK FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND THAT CARRIES INTO NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SCRAPE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. ASIDE FROM THESE
SHOWERS, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN HEADING INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WARMING TREND ALSO KICKS
OFF FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER, DETAILS ON JUST HOW WARM IT MAY GET ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. THE OUTLOOK FOR HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK KEEP THE
ELEVATED RISKS TO OUR SW, BUT WE WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH -
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KTS, OR LESS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT INCREASE
FROM W TO E. THE GREATEST RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS IN WESTERN MA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR BDL
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK. VFR CEILINGS STEADILY DROP TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND INTO SE MA IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS, THEN THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PICKS BACK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY LOWER-END VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH -
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY (GUSTS POSSIBLE UP TO 20 KT)
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS ALSO SHIFT MORE S-LY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY START TO IMPACT THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HRENCECIN
AVIATION...HRENCECIN
MARINE...HRENCECIN
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