488
FXUS61 KBOX 251042
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
542 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT FURTHER
OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING WILL BRING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
COASTAL STORM CONTINUING TO TREND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
- POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING WILL BRING
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING, BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. A SOUTHERLY LLJ
WILL BRING MODEST WAA AND LIFT INTO THE SNOW GROWTH REGION THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE, HOWEVER, IS LIMITED, WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 0.4
TO 0.5 INCHES, LEADING TO QPF UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE HIGHER QPF IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST, WHERE SOUTHWARD WINDS MAY ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT ONSHORE. GUIDANCE REMAINED CONSISTENT OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TURN SNOW TO
RAIN LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD, LIKELY IN A 3-HOUR OR LESS PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
MORE INTENSE SNOW RATES IN THE 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR RANGE. THESE
RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS THIS
MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING BETWEEN 5
AM AND 8 AM, AND MOVE OUT TO SEA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. CLOUDS ARE
UNLIKELY TO CLEAR AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OFFSHORE, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WAA WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
AND SUBTLE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A WEAK COASTAL STORM CONTINUING TO TREND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, NEAR 40F. LESS WINDY AND FEWER CLOUDS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THE
COASTAL STORM OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A COATING TO 2 INCHES
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. A MOISTURE-STARVED WARM
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COASTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SOME EARLY INDICATIONS THAT THE POLAR VORTEX MAKES ANOTHER TRIP
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THE ONE FACTOR THAT WILL KEEP THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK FROM BECOMING DANGEROUSLY COLD IS THAT WE ARE
ONLY ABOUT A MONTH AWAY FROM THE SPRING EQUINOX, MEANING THE SUN
ANGLE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS WARMER THEN PREVIOUS ARCTIC
OUTBREAKS IN JANUARY. PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE WITH ENORMOUS SPREAD IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SNOW, MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIGS
SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING, BRINING A
BRIEF 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT, POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW BETWEEN
12-18Z. LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LAG THE SNOW BY ABOUT 30 TO
60 MINS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY SATURATES. VISIBILITY IN
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2SM RANGE. CAPE AND ISLAND TERMINALS
LIKELY REMAIN RAIN WITH RAIN LASTING LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY LLJ MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE SNOW WHICH
WILL BRING LLWS CONCERNS WITH 35-40 KNOTS AT 2KFT FROM THE S
WHILE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN S AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SNOW AND WIND SHEAR CONCERNS END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS LIKELY LINGER UNTIL LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLIES CAN
CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT, BUT BEFORE THEN, THERE
COULD WIDLEY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM ROUGHLY 00Z-08Z.
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE FROM THE WSW AT 35-45 KNOTS, BUT THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAVE SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS
LEADING TO CONTINUED WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.
TOMORROW: HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
SNOW REACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 14Z WITH LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS
FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
SNOW REACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS
FOLLOWING SHORTLY BEHIND. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS TODAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS THIS
MORNING FOR A PERIOD OF SW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED EVENING BUT
5-8 FT SEAS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
VSBYS LOWER THIS MORNING IN A PERIOD OF SNOW AND RAIN.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KP
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