163
FXUS61 KBOX 282356
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
656 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION (IF ANY). GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. STILL ON THE
COLD SIDE FOR SATURDAY, BUT NOT AS WINDY COMPARED TO FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH IT. COOLING DOWN AGAIN FOR MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MONITORING POSSIBLE STORMINESS
AROUND TUESDAY AND/OR INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING WINTRY
WEATHER OR RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE MINOR TO NONE.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
DAYTIME FRIDAY.
RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DIMINISHING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS AN INVERSION LOWERS AND
CLOSES THE WINDOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
TO MAKE IT EAST OF THE BERKSHIRES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE
TIME FOR THAT TO HAPPEN THOUGH. UNTIL THEN, STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL, MAINLY ACROSS THE GRASSY
SURFACES, THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ANY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN SPOTS ALONG THE INTERIOR, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND US, GUSTS 20-30
MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH
STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE ISOLATED HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS AND
CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT OVERALL, BUT ELEVATED WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING AS MUCH AS THEY
COULD GIVEN THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WITH THE ADDED WIND FACTOR THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS INTO THE TEENS TO 20S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW TURNING
TOWARD THE NW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND MAGNITUDE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
IT WILL START ON THE BREEZIER SIDE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER THAN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOLER DAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
OVER THE REGION STILL. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL CLOSER
TO UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS, IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO 20S FOR MOST PLACES AND LOW 30S FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT;
DRYING OUT MONDAY TO GO ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
* AN INTERIOR-SNE WINTRY WEATHER AND COASTAL-PLAIN RAIN OR WET
SNOW-TO-RAIN EVENT REMAINS ON THE TABLE TUE INTO EARLY ON
WED. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE DETAILS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS IS IN INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
* DRYING OUT FOR WED THROUGH FRI WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED.
DETAILS:
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM-FRONTAL /
ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED RAINS BREAKING OUT SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING. THIS OCCURS AS A RATHER PROGRESSIVE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDY BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS, WITH RAIN BREAKING OUT
BY SUN AFTN. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE LARGELY AS A PLAIN RAIN BUT
COULD MIX OVER TO WET SNOWFLAKES AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS INTO
EARLY MON MORNING. RAIN AMTS AROUND A QUARTER- INCH OR LESS IN
ALL AREAS, ENDING AS BACK-END SNOWFLAKES WITH NIL ACCUM IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SUN NIGHT.
FOCUS FOR THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS OCCURS AS AN OPEN-WAVE/PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND ITS SFC CYCLONE MOVES ENE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO NEAR OR SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/ADJACENT
WATERS. THERE REMAIN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, IN
WHICH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WHICH HAVE UNFORTUNATELY GROWN TODAY
BETWEEN THE NORTHERNMOST GFS (A TRACK INSIDE OF 40N/70W) WITH
THE MORE OFFSHORE ECMWF (A TRACK OUTSIDE OF 40N/70W), WITH
TODAY'S CANADIAN SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE OVER 40N/70W. ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND AI GUIDANCE SUPPORT THEIR PARENT MODELING SYSTEMS. AN
INTERIOR/HIGHER-ELEVATION MAINLY SNOW WITH LOWER-
ELEVATION/COASTAL PLAIN WET, GLOPPY SNOW-TO-RAIN SCENARIO
REMAINS A BEST GUESS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPES; BUT IF A WARMER,
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION LIKE THE GFS BEARS ITSELF OUT THEN WE
COULD INTRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIXTURE INTO THE EQUATION. THERE IS
ALSO THE LOCAL NUANCES INHERENT TO EARLY-SEASON WINTRY EVENTS,
IN WHICH ACCUMULATIONS ARE DEPENDENT ON TIME-OF-DAY (CAN BE TOO
WARM TO ACCUMULATE ON PAVEMENT DURING THE DAY) AND THE INFLUENCE
MILD WATER TEMPS AROUND 50 DEGREES WOULD HAVE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAIN GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW. THE
WETTER, MOISTURE-LADEN NATURE OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SOME
OF THE ABOVE FACTORS WOULD FAVOR POSITIVE-SNOW-DEPTH-CHANGE SNOW
ACCUMULATION METHODOLOGIES VS SIMPLE 10:1 SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW, THERE ARE TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AS
ALLUDED TO ADVERTISE SPECIFIC SNOWFALL OR RAIN AMOUNTS AS OF
YET, WITH OPTIMISM THAT SOME OF THESE DETAILS WILL AVAIL
THEMSELVES OVER THE COMING DAYS. TAKING A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH
FOR NOW..,IN THE AREA WHERE RAIN MAY PREDOMINATE, NBM-BASED
24-HOUR PROBABILITIES OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE IN THE LOW
TO NIL LEVEL (LESS THAN 30%) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MOST OF
EASTERN MA, CENTRAL CT AND MUCH OF RI EXCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN
HILLS. FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, 24-HR NBM
PROBABILITIES OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE IN THE MODERATE TO
HIGH (40-60%) RANGE, AND ARE LOW TO MODERATE (25-40%) FOR 4 OR
MORE INCHES. THUS POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER IMPACTS OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE COLDER AIR MAY BE MORE
ENTRENCHED AND LESSER AS ONE MOVES CLOSER TO I-95.
DRYING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TUE SYSTEM FOR WED, WITH ANOTHER
DUMP OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE TOWARD LATE
IN THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, IN WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST AIR YET
SEEN TO THIS POINT IN THE EARLY-WINTER 2025-2026.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF MA IN
LAKE EFFECT SHSN. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN
GUSTY. W WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS, DECREASING FURTHER
AFTER 06Z.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WIND BECOMING MORE NW. WINDS 8-12 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25
KTS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RA LIKELY, CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA LIKELY,
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
* GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS ALL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE BAYS AND HARBORS WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW GALE CRITERIA THIS
EVENING AND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES
WILL BE ALSO. THESE WILL BE LIKELY REPLACED WITH SCAS ONCE THE
GALE WARNING EXPIRES.
SEAS 6-10 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT, DECREASING
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH AREAS
OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 13 FT. CHANCE
OF RAIN. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...BELK/MENSCH
SHORT TERM...MENSCH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO/MENSCH
MARINE...LOCONTO/MENSCH
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