496  
FXUS61 KBOX 070707  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
307 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMALS TEMPS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MORE  
SEASONABLE TEMPS TOMORROW. MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH A WEAK  
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE DELIVERS A  
PERIOD OF BEAUTIFUL SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS, ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE  
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD  
RAINS AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
330 AM UPDATE  
 
TODAY  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL  
SUPPORT A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH  
FLOW OFF THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS, EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AROUND OR  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN  
THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S WILL SUPPORT  
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT  
 
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER  
NIGHT OF QUIET WEATHER. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMES MORE  
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO COME UP A BIT  
BEFORE SUNRISE. NONETHELESS, A COMFORTABLE EVENING WITH LOWS  
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.  
 
TOMORROW  
 
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CLIMB BACK UP TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MORE  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WEAK  
SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY  
TOMORROW EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AS THIS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE  
AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY  
WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS:  
 
* LENGTHY STRETCH OF PLEASANT, TRANQUIL SUMMER WEATHER WITH PLENTY  
OF SUN, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY WEATHER SAT THRU MON.  
 
* TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID INTO MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
PASSING THROUGH EITHER LATER TUES OR INTO WED.  
 
DETAILS:  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT:  
 
COLD FRONT FROM THE DAYTIME HRS FRI WILL GET MORE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD  
PUSH FRI EVENING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM A SHEARING-OUT  
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF  
HIGHER MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS  
BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE OR LESS PASSES SE WITH LITTLE FANFARE.  
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE AND A SW TO N/NE WIND SHIFT FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S,  
MILDEST SOUTH, COOLEST NORTH/NORTHWEST.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:  
 
CONTINUED GENERALLY STRONG MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN A CANADIAN-  
ORIGIN ANTICYCLONE AND RELATED RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE GOVERNING  
CONDITIONS ACROSS SNE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. AS MUCH AS 2.5  
SIGMA PWAT ANOMALIES SUPPORT DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY  
LEVELS IDEAL FOR ANY OUTDOOR PLANS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE 00Z/7TH  
NAM GENERATES A DECENT SLUG OF QPF INTO INTERIOR CT, RI AND SE MA,  
WELL NORTH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BUT VIEW THIS  
AS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO GOOD CONSENSUS FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE  
GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS.  
 
THUS FOR THE WEEKEND, EXPECT FULL SUN AND RATHER DEEP MIXING DURING  
THE DAYTIME WITH MODEST NW TO NELY BREEZES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING AT NIGHT. HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S  
TO NEAR 60. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE WATERS SOUTH OF SNE ON  
MON, ENSUING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES  
(UPPER 70S-MID 80S) AND SWLY BREEZES.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:  
 
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE FOCUS IN  
THIS PERIOD, BUT DID NOTE MORE VARIATION ACROSS THE GUIDANCE WITH  
REGARD TO THE TIMING. THE PROGRESSIVE GFS SUPPORTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE  
AROUND TUES-EARLY TUES NIGHT; ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A  
FRONTAL PASSAGE CLOSER TO TUES EVENING INTO PART OF WED. THUS GIVEN  
MORE SOLUTION SPREAD IN TIMING CARRIED CHANCE-LEVEL POP FOR  
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WED. GIVEN  
AMPLIFICATION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HEAT RIDGE IN THIS PERIOD, A  
HEDGE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF IDEA MIGHT SEEM MORE APPROPRIATE BUT  
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT THROUGH THE TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. PENDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TUES INTO WED WOULD  
FEATURE ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE  
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
06Z TAF UPDATE:  
 
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
WINDS.  
 
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR, DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT SE  
WINDS. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 18Z  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS  
CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA, DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT S-SE WINDS.  
 
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS.  
 
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF, ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON  
EXACT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM NW TO NE THIS EVENING.  
 
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE  
 
CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48  
HOURS. SEAS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE NEAR-SHORE ZONES AND 2 TO  
3 FEET IN THE OUTER ZONES. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/CHAI  
NEAR TERM...RM  
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...LOCONTO  
AVIATION...LOCONTO/RM  
MARINE...LOCONTO/CHAI  
 
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