138
FXUS61 KBOX 040625
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
225 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST, CONTINUE
TO REFINE SUMMERY TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS COMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- SHOWERY ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...QUIET AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM,
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND +13C TO +15C TODAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN +15C TO +18C SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 80S FOR MOST, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
WHERE DOWNSLOPING AND DEEPER MIXING ARE MAXIMIZED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD STILL PROVIDE SOME
MODERATION. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 70 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE HAS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE. ONE
CAVEAT SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A LOW RISK FOR A
LATE-DAY SHOWER, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE I-91 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERY ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY REMAIN DRY, THOUGH A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTHWEST OF THE I-91 CORRIDOR AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN SUMMERLIKE WARMTH AND
MODEST HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F), A LIMITED RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXISTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED.
BY SUNDAY, A MORE DEFINED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, SUPPORTING A
BETTER SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES TREND
NOTABLY COOLER, GENERALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY,
THOUGH EXACT VALUES WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING. EASTERN AREAS MAY
COOL MORE QUICKLY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE,
WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS SPRINGFIELD AND HARTFORD COULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARMER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS TREND DRIER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LINGERING TROUGHING DEPARTS, WHICH WILL
INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW,
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING
TREND BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. SW WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20-22 KT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT BOS AND PVD DESPITE THEIR TENDENCY FOR SEA BREEZES,
THOUGH A BRIEF ONSHORE/SE WIND SHIFT REMAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16-17Z
IF WINDS WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY. WINDS REMAIN SW AROUND 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME WESTERLY FRIDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST, CAPE COD, AND ISLANDS WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF SE SEA
BREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16-21Z, THOUGH SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, PATCHY BR.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL MARGINAL SCA-
LEVEL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WATERS, INCLUDING
BUZZARDS BAY, VINEYARD SOUND, AND NANTUCKET SOUND, WHERE STRONGER SW
FLOW IS FAVORED THROUGH SUNSET. A SIMILAR SETUP MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS ON ALL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, PATCHY FOG.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, PATCHY FOG.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
PATCHY FOG.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ232>234.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY
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