303
FXUS61 KBOX 281105
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
605 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTH SHORE, BOSTON,
AND WESTERN RI FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 8 PM AND ENDING BY 4
AM. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CT
RIVER VALLEY, WHERE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING BETWEEN A TRACE AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCRETION.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO START TUESDAY MORNING AND PEAK
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
- CHILLY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 8 PM
AND ENDING BY 4 AM. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN CT RIVER VALLEY, WHERE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING BETWEEN A TRACE AND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO STRETCH ALL
THE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE STUBBORN TO RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FROM THE WARM FRONT WONT ARRIVE UNTIL
CLOSER TO 7-10 PM, MOVING FROM SW TO NE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A DEEP WARM LAYER ALOFT, PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY FALL
AS FREEZING RAIN. THE 00Z HREF SHOWED VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
12Z RUN, SHOWING THE HIGHEST ICE ACCRETION NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CT RIVER VALLEY. FLAT ICE ACCRETION
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN CT RIVER VALLEY, WHERE ICE TOTALS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH. FURTHER SOUTH IN SE MA AND
SOUTHERN RI, TEMPERATURES MAY STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
AS RAIN AT ONSET. REMINDER: ANY AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
HAZARDOUS, MAKING UNTREATED SURFACES SLIPPERY. ANY ICE ACCRETION ON
TREES AND POWER LINES ALREADY HOLDING ONTO LEFTOVER SNOW COULD LEAD
TO POWER OUTAGES.
FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 11 PM
AND 4 AM AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. DRY SLOT
BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, ALLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRYING BEFORE MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, THE HIGH WILL TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, REACHING INTO THE LOW 50S IN SE MA AND THE LOW 40S IN NW MA.
BETWEEN THE RAIN AND WARM TEMPS, THE SNOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY
WONT LAST LONG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO START TUESDAY MORNING
AND PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE 20S. HIGH WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS DURING THE DAY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW,
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A STREAMER/SHOWERS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO WESTERN MA. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. ACCOMPANIED
BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, THIS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 30 FRIDAY.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW LATER IN
THE WEEK; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW FALL
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHILLY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE 20S. HIGH WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS DURING THE DAY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW,
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A STREAMER/SHOWERS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO WESTERN MA. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. ACCOMPANIED
BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, THIS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 30 FRIDAY.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW LATER IN
THE WEEK; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW FALL
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. LIGHT SSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AND BOS AND PVD, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
THERE IS NOT AS HIGH BEING SO CLOSE TO BODY'S OF WATER. FREEZING
RAIN WILL BEGIN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT FROM 00Z-03Z AND TURN
TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 04Z-08Z. CIGS WILL DROP
WITH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT DOWN TO IFR LEVELS, LIFR NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LLWS WILL BE
A FACTOR AFTER 06-07Z TONIGHT AS 2KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 35-45
KNOTS FROM THE SW.
MONDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE
GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP CIGS IFR/LIFR FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, HOWEVER, BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
WITH THE DRY SLOT ALOFT, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OFF AND ON
CLEARING. RAIN MOVES BACK IN LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. LLWS WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAN ERODE AND SURFACE
WINDS CATCH UP WITH WINDS ALOFT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINAL IS STILL
MODERATE, BUT IF ITS GONNA HAPPEN, IT WILL BE BETWEEN 04-07Z
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECTING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. LLWS
WILL MOVE IN AFTER 07Z AS 2KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS
WHILE SURFACE WINDS SAY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS HIGH AND SHOULD START
BETWEEN 01-02Z TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH 06-07Z. AFTER 07Z,
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING TURNING PCPN TO RAIN.
CIGS GRADUALLY DROP TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT WITH PCPN.
LLWS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS 2KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KNOTS FROM THE SW WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
NEW YEARS DAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY:
N-NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS YIELDING SCA
SEAS UP TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, YIELDING TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS BY LATE DEC STANDARDS. POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE (SUB 980
MB) ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON, YIELDING SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KT. STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 16 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 16 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 14 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS
OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
NEW YEARS DAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN/KP
AVIATION...MCMINN/KP
MARINE...MCMINN/KP
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