894
FXUS61 KBOX 131105
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
605 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. SOME
INTERIOR RAIN SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT, BUT ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE VERY HIGHEST TERRAIN. RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER ARRIVING LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT STORM APPEARS UNLIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A BIT OF SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE VERY HIGHEST TERRAIN.
- MILD WEATHER WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
PERHAPS ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY THU ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS WED IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
- TURNING COLDER THU WITH FALLING DAYTIME TEMPS. DRY & COLD THU
NIGHT-FRI. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS & TEENS
WITH HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
- MILDER HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S SAT WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF SNOW
SOMETIME SAT NIGHT-SUN...BUT A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
ALONG ZONAL FLOW. FIRST DISTURBANCE PASSES WITH LITTLE IMPACTS
OUTSIDE OF AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MA. MILDER DAY FOLLOWS AS A TRANSIENT
RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS A MILDER DAY ON TAP AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 0- 2C. A MORE
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. FIRST SIGN OF ITS APPROACH WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TODAY. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION PASS THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER POPS
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. MUCH OF THE FORCING WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SO
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
AND MODEST QPF.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MILD WEATHER WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
PERHAPS ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THU ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. HIGHS WED IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED INTO EARLY THU. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN A FEW SPOTS. THESE
READINGS ARE A SOLID 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY
STANDARDS.
GIVEN THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS PASSING TO OUR NORTH...NOT EXPECTING
A LOT OF PRECIPITATION AND MUCH OF THIS TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. NONETHELESS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS FOR THEM ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN FROM THE WEST...MAY SEE PRECIPITATION END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THU
MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A DUSTING TO GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1 INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TURNING COLDER THU WITH FALLING DAYTIME TEMPS. DRY &
COLD THU NIGHT-FRI. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS &
TEENS WITH HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THU INTO THU NIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU INTO FRI. TEMPS ON THU WILL LIKELY FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON A STIFF GUSTY
WEST WIND. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 10
ABOVE BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY...DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...MILDER HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S SAT WITH PERHAPS A
BIT OF SNOW SOMETIME SAT NIGHT-SUN...BUT A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS
UNLIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO START
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SAT. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO OUR WEST WITH
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING ON WHICH PIECE OF ENERGY TO AMPLIFY AND WHERE THE
ACTUAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS TO DEVELOP THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW TOO FAR NORTH AND LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM. THAT
BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
CMC/ICON THAT HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP. SO WHILE A SIGNIFICANT STORM
APPEARS UNLIKELY...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR WEST
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIOD OF SNOW SOMETIME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IF AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP. WHETHER OR NOT THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH -GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 7 AND 13 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE..
MAINLY VFR...BUT VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR AFTER 03Z/04Z IN A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE VERY HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
BERKS AND NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS AND RATHER SHORT-LIVED TOO.
MODEST LLJ DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SW WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE ALSO DID
INCLUDE LLWS THOUGH GIVEN WINDS AT 850 MB ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO
55 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...BUT LINGERING MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST SOUTHWEST LLJ DEVELOPS
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF 25-30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED. SCA
CONDITIONS HOISTED TONIGHT FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...FT/FRANK
AVIATION...FT/FRANK
MARINE...FT/FRANK
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