264
FXUS61 KBOX 101715
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
115 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT ANY MINOR RIVER
FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD WARMTH GIVES WAY TO COOLER WEATHER BY END OF THE WEEK WITH
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARMTH GIVES WAY TO COOLER WEATHER BY END OF
THE WEEK WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WATCHING THE CLIMATE SITES FOR RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON:
- WORCESTER (ORH) REACHED 69 AND BROKE THE RECORD OF 67 IN 2020.
- HARTFORD (BDL) REACHED 71 AND IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD OF 72
IN 2016.
- BOSTON (BOS) HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO A SEA BREEZE BUT WE SHOULD
SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BOOST THE
TEMPERATURE QUICKLY. THAT SHOULD CHALLENGE ONE OF THE FEW LONG
STANDING RECORDS THAT DATES BACK TO 1878 (71 DEGREES).
- PROVIDENCE (PVD) HAS A SEA BREEZE BUT MAY SEE A TEMPERATURE
JUMP LATER AS WELL. RECORD HIGH IS 72 IN 2016.
ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END AND THAT INCLUDES OUR TASTE OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE'RE WATCHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND EXACTLY WHERE IT ENDS UP WILL BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COOLER, DAMP WEATHER AND CLOUDY BUT SOMEWHAT
MILDER CONDITIONS.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN
MA AND NORTHERN RI WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ALONG WITH DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG FROM ONSHORE
FLOW, WHILE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF CT, IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY
BUT SOMEWHAT MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THIS FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN DAY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO IN THE COOL SECTOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
DURING NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT A FEW SHOWERS AND THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK AND FAST MOVING LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, WITH ANY SNOW MORE FAVORED
IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA, BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
EVEN THOUGH MELTING SNOW HAS BROUGHT INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM
FLOWS, WE DON'T SEE MUCH OF A FLOOD CONCERN UNTIL MONDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. RISES ON
MAINSTEM CONNECTICUT RIVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS, WITH
SEVERAL WIND AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
IN SOME CASES NEAR THE MAX OF MODEL CLIMATE. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEEP MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ALONG WITH A BRIEF SURGE OF
WARMTH.
PROBABILITIES FOR 1"+ OF RAIN ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED MORE ACROSS CT,
RI, AND SE MA, AND AS A RESULT ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE PAWTUXET,
PAWCATUCK, AND WOOD RIVERS IN RI AND PERHAPS ALONG THE LOWER REACHES
OF THE MAINSTEM CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH MIDDLE
HADDAM.
IT'S TOUGH TO MIX DOWN STRONG WINDS THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EVENTS, BUT AREAS THAT ARE USUALLY FAVORED ARE THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD, AND THE ISLANDS. ASSUMING WE HAVE A STRONG
INVERSION, WHICH IS TYPICAL IN MARCH, WE CAN ESTIMATE GUSTS TAKING
ABOUT 50% OF 925 MB WINDS. GFS SHOWS A PEAK OF 70-75KT MON MORNING
WHICH WOULD YIELD 35-40KT GUSTS AND GALES ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, WE LOOK TO BE IN FOR ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE
OF COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH SW FLOW TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS, IFR/LIFR RETURNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND PERSISTS ALL NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MVFR
AND IFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND
BRINGS A WIND SHIFT TO E/NE. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING DAY WED TO
MVFR CEILINGS WHICH SLOWLY LIFT FURTHER WED NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY: BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WED IS DENSE FOG DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. ALSO NEED TO BE
AWARE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WED MORNING WHICH WILL
BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NE ON E MA WATERS, IF NOT INTO
NARRAGANSETT BAY, WITH BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING WED NIGHT WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS PROBABLE INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN OVER WEEKEND. AS
MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE, WE'RE GETTING MORE CONFIDENT IN
SOUTHERLY GALES MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWD
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
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