133
FXUS61 KBOX 250233
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1033 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY, SEASONABLE BUT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS
WILL BE SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. OTHER
THAN SOME CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA,
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT N TO NW WINDS.
730 PM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LINGERS OVER EASTERN MA BUT SHOULD
MOVE SEAWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTINESS HAS DIED DOWN IN
MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET, WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY CALM, SO
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL
COOLING BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DEWPOINTS TONIGHT ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH POST FRONTAL DEWS FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THIS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THANKS
TO A MUCH DRIER ENVIRONMENT.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. 850-700
MB MOISTURE AXIS LINGERS ACROSS SE NEW ENG EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN MUCH DRIER MOVES IN DURING TONIGHT AS PWATS DROP
CONSIDERABLY. SO WHILE WE EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER THE
CAPE/ISLANDS THIS EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT HERE, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FURTHER INLAND. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NY/PA TONIGHT AND THERE IS
ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR A MODEST WIND WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. IN FACT, IT WILL BE
GUSTY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS
WITH N WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH BEFORE DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S WESTERN MA WHERE LIGHTEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO LOW-MID 40S SE NEW ENG COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY...
RIDGING ALOFT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN WILL BRING A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.
SEA- BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COOLER AIRMASS
BUT SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES WHICH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASES SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGHER PWATS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
CONVERGENCE IS LIMITED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
* COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL USHER IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* RIDGING TO BUILD IN AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING BACK TOWARDS 70F+ FOR HALLOWEEN
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND PERHAPS BEYOND
A SEASONABLE COOLDOWN IS STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MID LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS
850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW ZERO. THE "540MB" BENCHMARK DRAPES OVER
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NORTH OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES BLIP AROUND THE
TROUGH AXIS THOUGH MOST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE CHILLY SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS
BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS STARTING TUESDAY. WARMTH WILL PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO WAS
HIGH AS 12- 15C. AMPLIFIED RIDGING BODES FOR A DRY AND MILD
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WHILE THIS UPCOMING OCTOBER 31ST WILL FALL WELL BELOW RECORDS,
WITH RECORD HIGHS OF 81 IN BOSTON AND 83 IN PROVIDENCE, KIDS
HEADING OUT ON THE TOWN FOR SOME TRICKS OR TREATS WILL BE ABLE
TO SHOWCASE THEIR COSTUMES WITHOUT THE NEED FOR LAYERING UP.
WHILE THE LONG TERM FORECAST TRADITIONALLY ENDS ON DAY 7, DID
WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT WE LOOK TO BE STUCK IN A LOCK AND LOAD
SORT OF PATTERN WITH FLIPS BETWEEN BRIEF WEAK TROUGHING FOLLOWED
BY PERSISTENT RIDGING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. THERE IS
STRONG GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITH US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER AND PERHAPS
BEYOND WITH, UNFORTUNATELY, LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. CPC CORROBORATES THESE TRENDS IN THEIR 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOKS WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE (70%).
VFR WITH N/NW WINDS. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH FRI FOR
COASTAL SEA BREEZES. IT'S POSSIBLE WE SEE LOWER-END VFR CIGS
FRI, ESPECIALLY OVER RI AND E MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN MA
WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE FRI AFTERNOON NEARSHORE
WATERS AS SEA- BREEZES DEVELOP. SCAS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF
TONIGHT OVER NEARSHORE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS BUT CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN MA OUTER WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY, EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 TO
40 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED,
MOSTLY BELOW 10 MPH.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WINDS,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO RENEWED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.
FOR SATURDAY, MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 35-45 PERCENT WITH NW GUSTS TO
20-30 MPH.
FOR SUNDAY, MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 30-40 PERCENT WITH NW GUSTS TO 15-
25 MPH.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251-256.
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/KS
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KJC/BW
MARINE...KJC/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...KJC
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