266
FXUS61 KBOX 121944
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
244 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HAS ENDED. THE THREAT FOR AN IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM
LATE IN THE WEEK HAS DIMINISHED.
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUE, THEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT
- UNSETTLED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OVERALL QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUE, THEN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT
A COUPLE FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENG THROUGH TUE NIGHT ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
WEAK SO ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON TUE WHICH WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPS
AS A SW FLOW DEVELOPS. 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 0 TO +2C WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGHS TUE REACHING INTO THE MID 40S. A SECOND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENG AND SE CANADA TUE NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 0.50"
TUE NIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN OR ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AS A MID LEVEL FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL FRONT AND
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME. BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED
SNOW ACCUM LESS THAN INCH CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT TUE NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST US AND EXITING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME SMALLER
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO MOVE ALONG THIS DEEPENING TROUGH'S FLOW AND
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES REMAIN LIGHT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GLOBAL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON LESS QPF ACROSS SE MA AND RI UP INTO NE
MA (ESPECIALLY IN THE ENSEMBLES), BUT THE LATEST NAM DISAGREES,
INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THIS SPREAD LINES UP
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS REGARDING TRACK FOR THESE
SHORTWAVES.
WE ARE MONITORING THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL STORM TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE LATEST TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THE LOW PASSING TO
THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WOULD ALL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF TOTAL SNOWFALL (USING
A 10:1 RATIO) THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING REMAIN BELOW 10-20 PERCENT, AND
ARE CLOSER TO 0 PERCENT FOR 24 HOUR SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ENSEMBLES HAVE
AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR +1" OF SNOW OVER 24 HOURS
(ENDING MIDNIGHT FRIDAY). MUCH CAN STILL CHANGE THIS FAR OUT FROM
THE EVENT, AND THE SYSTEM COULD STILL SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE FAVORABLE
TRACK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DEPENDING ON HOW THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES. BUT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE BACKING OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM IS WORTH NOTING, ESPECIALLY
WITH AGREEMENT ACROSS DIFFERENT MODEL SUITES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH -GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SW AROUND
10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS CONTINUING
INTO TUE THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR, BUT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AS A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
KBOS TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA, CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY W WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE 25 KT GUSTS LIKELY. SCAS EXTENDED INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE WHILE SHIFTING
TO SW, THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 25-30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN,
CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC/HRENCECIN
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