274
FXUS61 KBOX 250617
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
117 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- TRENDED SNOWFALL TOTALS LOWER FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS DOES INCLUDE THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS, DUE TO THE THREAT OF SNOW TURNING TO SLEET,
WHICH WILL LOWER TOTALS.
- FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LINGERING MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY ON EASTERN MA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- GALE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR INCREASING NW WINDS TO 40KT ON
COASTAL WATERS BEHIND STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2"+ INCH PER HOUR SNOW
RATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS.
WANING SNOW MONDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES.
- FREEZING SPRAY LINGERS INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- COLD AND MAINLY DRY THIS WEEK BUT WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FINAL PREPARATIONS ARE MADE AHEAD OF AN IMPACTFUL WIDESPREAD WINTER
STORM, SET TO BEGIN IN LESS THAN 24-HOURS.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO DANGEROUS
TRAVEL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR WILL ACCUMULATE WIDESPREAD 12-18" ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH 8-12" ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST,
CAPE COD, AND ISLANDS DUE TO THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET.
A DYNAMIC WINTER STORM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL TAP
INTO RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND TRANSPORT IT NORTH ON SUNDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS SHOWS LESS THAN IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR A FULL OUT HIGH-END SNOW EVENT. NEVERTHELESS THERE
IS PLENTY OF SNOW TO GO AROUND. THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE
700MB WAVE NEVER CLOSES OFF AND THE 850MB LOW TRACKING EITHER OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST NORTH (DEPENDING ON YOUR FLAVOR OF
GUIDANCE). THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK
AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK, WITH PRESSURE ~1000MB. WHAT WE HAVE
WORKING IN OUR FAVOR, THE ARCTIC AIR MASS, MOISTURE PLUME WITH
PWATS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO, AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
IN ADDITION, A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS, THIS MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVIER BURSTS AND SUBSEQUENT TOTALS OF SNOW.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THE FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ESSENTIALLY THIS FRONT IS A DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR AND "SEASONABLE" COLD AIR. ALONG AND WEST OF
THIS FRONT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH
THIS SETUP, A FRONT END THUMP IS LIKELY, WITH SNOWFALL RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 1-2" PER HOUR, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INSTANCES OF
3" PER HOUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM. THESE INTENSE RATES ARRIVE TO
SW CT BETWEEN 3-5 PM THEN REACHING NE MA BY 7-9 PM. DURING THIS
TIME, IT IS NOT ADVISABLE TO TRAVEL, UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY
AS WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOWFALL RATES.
AND GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS, THUNDERSNOW IS A POSSIBILITY,
CUE THE EXCITEMENT! IT'S ALSO WORTH A MENTION, THE HREF SHOWS LOW
PROBABILITES (LESS THAN A 30/40 PERCENT CHANCE) OF COASTAL AREA TO
REACH BLIZZARD CRITERIA. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY,
FEEL THAT GUSTS WILL FALL SHY OF CRITERIA FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AROUND 30 MPH. DON'T FEEL IT WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE, THUS
HAVE HELD OFF ON AN UPGRADES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. EITHER
WAY, TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TREACHEROUS.
AS THE STORM WANES, WARM AIR BECOMES INTRODUCED ALOFT, TRANSITION
FROM SNOW TO SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI. HOWEVER,
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH/INLAND THE SLEET REACHES.
CURRENT THOUGHT ARE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WILLIMANTIC,
TO WARWICK, TO TAUNTON HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SLEET, WHICH
HAS LOWERED EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS, AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THERE IS EVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO CHANGE TO RAIN ON THE ISLAND OF NANTUCKET,
WHICH WOULD COMPRESS THE SNOWPACK, LEADING TO A DENSE SNOW AND MAKE
IT LOOK LIKE "LESS" SNOW FELL. SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WANES ON
MONDAY, THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
SHORE, FLIPPING THE WIND FROM ONSHORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. AND THE CURRENT SNOWFALL MAP
ISSUED ENCOMPASSES ALL SNOWFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW WRAPS UP FROM WEST TO EAST, STARTING FIRST IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE MONDAY MORNING, EASTERN AREAS BY THE COAST ARE LATER IN THE
DAY, LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
BY MONDAY NIGHT MUCH DRIER AIR RETURN AND SNOW CEASES. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT FALLS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FREEZING SPRAY LINGERS INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STILL SEEING BUOY REPORTS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ON E MA
WATERS INCLUDING NANTUCKET SOUND SO WE MAINTAINED THE FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THESE WATERS.
ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR INCREASING NW WINDS TO 40KT AS THE
STORM DEPARTS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY DURING THIS TIME AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WORKS INTO REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COLD AND MAINLY DRY THIS WEEK BUT WATCHING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK.
MAINLY DRY BUT COLD NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AND SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES
FROM TIME TO TIME, AS WELL AS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
ON THE COASTAL WATERS. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK OR PERHAPS EVEN NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW, IT'S EQUALLY POSSIBLE THAT ANY SYSTEM
TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. NNE WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH GUSTS PICKING UP 25-35KTS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
BEGINS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 13Z-15Z AND 15Z-17Z FARTHER EAST,
BRINGING A RAPID DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW
TO ARRIVE WITHIN 1-3 HOURS OF ONSET WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR
CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. SNOW LESSENS
IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE A CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY CAPE COD, WITH
SOME SLEET POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
SNOWFALL TOTALS BY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM 8-12" ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD, AND ISLANDS TO 12-18" ELSEWHERE,
WITH 18-20" POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHEASTERN
COAST, INCLUDING BOS. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL FROM LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREADS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
SNOW BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP MONDAY MORNING. PROLONGED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN, INCLUDING BOSTON, THROUGH MIDDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FLURRIES
FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FORECAST IS FOR 18"-20"
OF SNOW AT LOGAN AIRPORT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FORECAST IS FOR 16"-18"
OF SNOW AT BRADLEY AIRPORT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NW WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TURN NE SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING UP THE COAST. SNOW
ARRIVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES,
BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN OR SLEET ON MOST OF SOUTH COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 14 FT. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST MONDAY
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MAZ002>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST MONDAY
FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>234.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ254.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...BW/MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...BW
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