296
FXUS61 KBOX 242333
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
733 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE COAST WITH A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND. STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL
WATERS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, CAPE
AND ISLANDS EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG/LONG DURATION NOR'EASTER WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION, AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POWER OUTAGES ARE A
CONCERN PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST WITH FULLY LEAFED TREES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG/LONG DURATION NOR'EASTER WILL BRING STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION, AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POWER OUTAGES ARE A
CONCERN PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST WITH FULLY LEAFED TREES.
AN EARLY SEASON/LONG DURATION NOR'EASTER WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRI RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND WHERE THE WORST OF THE IMPACTS ARE FELT...CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE AN IMPACTFUL STORM FOR OUR REGION.
THERE ARE SEVERAL MOVING PARTS THAT OUR IDEAL FOR A STRONG EARLY
SEASON NOR'EASTER. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE BOTH INDICATED TO BE OUTSIDE THE EPS/GEFS
MODELS CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PERSISTENT NE
GRADIENT OF WIND BEGINNING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WHILE
THERE REMAIN TRACK DIFFERENCES...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY
BACKS WESTWARD TO A POSITION SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BEFORE
EVENTUALLY LIFTING NE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS THE REASON THAT THIS STORM WILL BE OF SUCH LONG
DURATION. THE EASTERLY LLJ IS ALSO SHOWN TO BE OUTSIDE THE MODELS
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN THE FORCING FOR BANDS OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SEVERAL IMPACTS THAT WE WILL
BREAK DOWN BELOW.
1) STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE STRONG NE WINDS ARE THAT THEY WILL BE
OF BOTH LONG DURATION AND ALSO COUPLED WITH HEAVY RAIN/FULLY LEAFED
TREES. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES THAN IF THIS SAME STORM WERE OCCURRING A FEW MONTHS LATER.
THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...WHERE WE EXPECT
NE WIND GUST OF 45 TO 60 MPH. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS SEE
WINDS REACH 65-70 MPH ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT THAT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK. REGARDLESS...WHETHER OR NOT PLACES HIT
SPECIFIC HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS LESS IMPORTANT THAT THE LONG DURATION
COMBINED WITH THE FULLY LEAFED TREES. GIVEN THAT FACTOR...WE OPTED
TO GO WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...WE
ARE EXPECTING NE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH BUT A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN. AGAIN...GIVEN THE FULLY
LEAFED TREES COMBINED WITH LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT OPTED TO ISSUE
A WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND AND TREE DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGE RISK WILL BE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT FOR MOST PEOPLE.
2) BEACH EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OTHER BIG ISSUE WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE EXPECTED BEACH
EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES OVER MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE A STORM UNDER-GOING RAPID BOMBOGENESIS...BUT
THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE STRONG NE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE ARE
CONCERNING. A STORM SURGE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY NEAR 2.5 FEET ARE EXPECTED LATE FRI RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALONG EAST FACE OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES. WE EXTENDED THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS ALONG
WITH 15 TO 25 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A FEW POCKETS OF LOW END MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE INCREASING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO EVEN AS WINDS EVENTUALLY START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THESE ISSUES WILL BE A CONCERN. GIVEN THIS EVENT WILL
IMPACT MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES...THE WATER MAY STRUGGLE TO DRAIN
OUT AFTER EACH HIGH TIDE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXACERBATE THESE
ISSUES A WELL. OVERALL...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
IN REGARDS TO BEACH EROSION GIVEN SUCH A LONG DURATION EVENT.
WHILE NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LESS COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ON THE
SOUTH COAST...HIGH SEAS JUST OFFSHORE AND SWELL MAY RESULT IN SOME
SPLASHOVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL. THIS
IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH.
3) HEAVY RAIN AND TIMING...
LASTLY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION AT TIMES
LATER FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ONE AREA WHERE THERE REMAINS
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN SHIELD
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS/RGEM
ARE ON THE FASTER SIDE WITH RAIN OVESPREADING MOST OF THE REGION
LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/NAM STRUGGLE TO
BRING STEADY RAIN INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR UNTIL SAT. WE BLENDED
THE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW...BUT ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES WILL BASICALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO MON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-
4" ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.
WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT
ITS OVER A LONG DURATION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, OUTSIDE OF SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MA, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS ACK AND THE CAPE
TONIGHT. CIGS THERE MAY PERIODICALLY BREAK TO VFR, THOUGH THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT, STRONGEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. GUSTS NEAR 40 KT FOR
NANTUCKET.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, IMPACTING ACK AS EARLY AS 14Z AND FMH/HYA BY 20Z.
LOWERED CIGS COME FOLLOWING -RA/RA MOVING IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FROM SE TO NW. STRONG NE WINDS, 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-45 KTS,
STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST MA TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
MVFR FURTHER OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SE TO NW. LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE. STRONG NE WINDS
CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY, GENERALLY SUSTAINED BETWEEN
10-20 KT INLAND AND 25-35 KT TOWARDS SE MA, CAPE COD, AND THE
ISLANDS. GUSTS TO 55 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA AS WELL, WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. RA.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 KT. RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SHRA LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
* DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NE
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS OFFSHORE OF 15-25 FEET.
AN EARLY SEASON NOR'EASTER WILL COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC TO RESULT IN STRONG NE WIND GUSTS OF 45-60 KNOTS AND SEAS
OFFSHORE BUILDING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 FEET LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS
LATER FRI INTO SUN. MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER RETURNING TO PORT
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST MON TOO...SO ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS PROCESS WILL BE QUITE SLOW.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 25 FT. RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 22 FT. RAIN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT. RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ004-
011-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ005-
006-012>014-017-018.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019>024.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
RIZ002>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-
254-281.
STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237-255-256-282-283.
STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ250-251-280.
DISCUSSION...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/HRENCECIN
MARINE...FRANK
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