035
FXUS61 KBOX 171752
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1252 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, BUT IT STILL WILL BE BLUSTERY AND CHILLY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY BUT BLUSTERY & CHILLY TONIGHT
* LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S
DETAILS...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT WITH NW WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE...STILL EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* SUNNY, BREEZY & SEASONABLE TUE BUT WITH LESS WIND/TAD MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGHS NEAR 40 HIGH TERRAIN WITH MIDDLE-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE
* CHILLY TUE NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MOST WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM A FAST MOVING SYSTEM STAYING TO OUR SOUTH
DETAILS...
TUESDAY...
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT FURTHER NORTHWEST WELL INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC ON TUE. AS THIS HAPPENS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE REGION AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES TUE WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL CU UNLIKE TODAY. STILL SOME
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A
TAD HIGHER THAN TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA. THE 12Z HRRR IS AN OUTLIER WHICH BRINGS
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUE
NIGHT. GIVEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS SOUTH AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
DRY WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY WITH LESS WIND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER FOR WEEKEND.
DETAILS...
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. A SOUTHERLY WAVE WILL EXIT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE MORNING, MORE
LIKELY STAYING WELL ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP IT DRY. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL OWE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL STILL LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A SOME UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN CT VALLEY AND SOUTH COAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW; HOWEVER, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS WAVE TO BE FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
THINGS DRY, BUT PERHAPS BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR THE
DAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING IS FURTHER NORTH, THERE IS A CONSENSUS
THAT THERE WILL BE BROAD WEAK ASCENT FOR SNE. COUPLED WITH A PLUME
OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE, THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION MAINLY FRI INTO EARLY SAT. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WHEN IT COMES TO THE DETAILS,
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SECONDARY LOW AND
TRACK. THIS MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IF THE LOW TRACKS
CLOSEBY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLAKES MIXING IN BRIEFLY FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN VERY EARLY SAT AM. OTHERWISE, THIS IS APPEARING TO LIKELY BE
A LOW QPF RAIN. WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW 50S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS SATURDAY, BUT SPEED IS LESS CERTAIN AND MAY DEPEND ON HOW THE
SOUTHERLY WAVE TRACKS. OVERALL THIS SHOULD TREND HIGHS COOLER
SATURDAY WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
LOOKING EVEN FURTHER AHEAD INTO THE FOLLOWING (HOLIDAY) WEEK,
PATTERN LOOKS OVERALL BENIGN WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT'S STILL PLENTY FAR AWAY,
SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
20-25 KNOT WIND GUSTS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL
NON-DECOUPLING LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE
NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GOOD MIXING OVER THE WATERS WERE YIELD
W WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE MARITIMES WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
GALES TO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
STILL ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO RESULT IN W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
WATERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...FRANK/MENSCH
MARINE...FRANK/MENSCH
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