585
FXUS61 KBOX 171112
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
712 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS ENDED, ALTHOUGH RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON
SEVERAL RIVERS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES STILL
CONTINUE, BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED UPON COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE INTO PRE-DAWN THIS MORNING, THEN
SHIFT TO WEST. SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE THURSDAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRENDING
UNSETTLED LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE INTO PRE-DAWN THIS
MORNING, THEN SHIFT TO WEST. SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
STRONG WINDS STILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THESE STRONG WIND ARE OCCURRING FROM THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC
SOUTHERLY WINDS (AS OF ABOUT 2 AM, BOSTON LOGAN'S TDWR WAS SAMPLING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 73 KT AT 925 MB), BUT ALSO FROM A POTENT COLD
FRONT WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF SWLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH
RANGE (AND EVEN STRONGER IN PORTIONS OF NY). THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO RACE EASTWARD AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY AROUND 4 AM.
THIS FRONT WILL END THE RISK FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AS IT
PASSES; WILL LEAVE THE WIND HEADLINES GOING WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT THEN LOOK TO CANCEL SHORTLY AFTER ITS PASSAGE.
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINDFUL OF DOWNED
TREES OR POWERLINES THAT MAY HAVE FALLEN ON THE ROADS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS, IT WILL ALSO USHER IN SHARPLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND SWLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE, WITH THE
GUSTS EASING LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTED GUSTS ARE PROBABLY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE WIND ADVISORIES INTO THE TUESDAY
DAYTIME PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH WETTENED GROUND, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
TREES WITH WEAKENED ROOT SYSTEMS COULD BE DOWNED IN SPORADIC
COVERAGE. TODAY SHOULD FEATURE MORE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER, GREATER WEST AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EAST.
THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES UNDERNEATH THE
MORE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA,
GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD TRANSPORT OF GREAT LAKES-ENHANCED
MOISTURE. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL TAKE PLACE RIGHT AT THE TIME OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN FALLING THROUGH THE 30S TO LOW 40S AS 925 MB
TEMPS CRASH TO AROUND THE -5 TO -9C RANGE, UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR MID-
MARCH. WIND CHILLS AROUND THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ABOVE ZERO IN THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.
RATHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE AND SKIES GO CLEAR,
SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE THURSDAY WITH NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRENDING
UNSETTLED LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MAINTAINING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 925/850MB TEMPERATURES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL START THE TREND
OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED WITH WEAK LIFT PRESENT, SO AT MOST THIS WILL SUPPORT
A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY WITH FURTHER WARMING IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
LIKELY RISE IN THE UPPER 40S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 50S.
PATTERN TRENDS UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LEADING TO PERIODIC SHOWERS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN STILL, BUT EXPECT
TO SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN SAT/SUN WITH HIGHS DEPENDENT ON WHAT SIDE (NORTH/SOUTH) OF
THE BOUNDARY THE AREA IS ON. SATURDAY IS MORE LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WAA/SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HELP BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE WAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH LATER SUNDAY HAS BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT,
RESULTING IN MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LARGELY VFR, THOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO GO ALONG WITH SCT
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AROUND THE BERKSHIRES. WSW/W WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY AT AROUND 25-35 KT, PERHAPS NEAR 40 KT AT ORH. GUST SPEEDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W/WNW WINDS AROUND 10-13 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
EARLY, THEN EASING TO AROUND 5-10 KT BY DAYBREAK.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KT DECREASE AND SHIFT TO S AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR GRADUALLY IMPROVES TO VFR THIS MORNING WITH SW GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 KT THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR GRADUALLY IMPROVES TO VFR THIS MORNING WITH SW GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KT THRU THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
POSSIBLE TODAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: BREEZY. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
STORM WARNINGS STILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS, ALTHOUGH
THOSE WILL BE DOWNSHIFTED TO GALE WARNINGS UPON PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SW/WSW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
35 KT RANGE THROUGH TODAY, EASING TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED
ROUGH SEAS TODAY ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW
DECREASING TREND WHICH LASTS THRU WED. SCAS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED
TONIGHT AND INTO WED AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 12 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-
008>012-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO/MENSCH
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...LOCONTO/MENSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page