642  
FXUS61 KBOX 141135  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
735 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN  
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY  
WINDS DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN  
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW STRATUS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE  
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY BUT STILL COOL,  
THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE  
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  
 
TODAY:  
 
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YET ANOTHER  
UNSETTLED SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY  
SPREAD ACROSS MA, MAINLY NORTHERN MA SO FAR. THIS ISN'T A  
STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM, SO DESPITE HAVING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE  
THERE ISN'T ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING,  
FILLING IN FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES. THE  
GENERAL TREND SHOWN BY THE SUITE OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS THE  
BULK OF SHOWERS SHIFTING SOUTH FURTHER INTO RI AND SE MA EARLY  
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH NUDGES IN. THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE  
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE  
0.15-0.40" RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OFFSHORE FLOW  
WILL KEEP IT IN THE LOW 60S IN THE COASTAL AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST,  
OTHERWISE DRY OVERNIGHT.  
 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT KEEPING  
CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE WINDS. TEMPERATURES DROP  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WHILE STILL UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH  
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK WAVE  
MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. BATTLING THE DRIER AIR SHOWER CHANCES  
WILL BE LOW AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
KEY POINTS  
 
* WARMING TREND MON - WED  
 
* HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
 
SURFACE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE AND DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF LONG  
ISLAND. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE REGION DRY,  
BUT PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE SOUTH COAST. TEMPERATURES  
BEGIN TO REBOUND, REACHING THE LOW TO MID-70S. TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WARMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN BY  
MIDWEEK AS SOME GLOBAL MODELS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WEAK  
SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM LACKS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL  
SUPPORT, SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS RATHER  
THAN A WASHOUT. GUIDANCE COMES BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARDS  
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES.  
THIS COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE THAT UPWARDS OF 1000-2000  
J/KG OF INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD  
LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE LEADING  
COLD FRONT. WITH CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES COULD  
WARM TO NEAR 90°F BY THURSDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S.  
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, DROPPING  
BACK DOWN TO THE LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.  
 
LOOKING WAY AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME HOPE  
THAT WE WILL FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE WET WEEKEND TREND AS THE GFS  
HAS A DRY AIRMASS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE FROM  
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE EURO AND CANADIAN HAVE ANOTHER  
TRAILING SHORTWAVE, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WET WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
12Z TAF UPDATE:  
 
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, DRYING UP IN THE  
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE RAIN  
WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR IFR IN AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON,  
BUT NOW LOWER CONFIDENCE BASED ON CURRENT CEILING TRENDS THIS  
MORNING. LIKELY A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE HIGH  
PRESSURE.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE  
 
MVFR/VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR  
DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRINGS IN  
DRIER AIR. CONFIDENCE LOWER ON CEILING TRENDS THIS EVENING  
(IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR VS STAYING MVFR OVERNIGHT).  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z, ALTHOUGH  
COULD LINGER THROUGH 17Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS,BUT  
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.  
 
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR  
POSSIBLE.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA.  
 
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
 
E-NE WINDS SPEEDS BELOW 25 KT AND MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH  
SEAS LESS THAN 5 FT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY OVER  
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD AFTER 20Z TODAY  
WHERE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS APPROACH SCA  
CRITERIA WITH WINDS AROUND 25 KTS AND BRIEF 3-5 FT SEAS. THIS  
POTENTIAL WILL LAST THROUGH 06Z. SEAS AND WINDS TREND DOWNWARD  
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS  
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY  
FOR ANZ256.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MENSCH/KP  
NEAR TERM...MENSCH  
SHORT TERM...MENSCH  
LONG TERM...KP  
AVIATION...MENSCH/KP  
MARINE...BELK/MENSCH/KP  
 
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