551
FXUS61 KBOX 070215
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1015 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2023
SYNOPSIS
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME NEAR GROUND LEVEL SMOKE AT TIMES AS A
RESULT OF THE ONGOING CANADIAN WILDFIRES. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS
THIS PAST WEEKEND, STILL EXPECTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. NO DAY SHOULD BE A WASHOUT. BRIEF DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY, BEFORE OUR WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
1010 PM UPDATE:
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING NOW AND LIGHTNING
TRENDS ARE DOWN. THEREFORE, ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEN TRENDING TOWARD
DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S, MID 50S FOR BOSTON. LIGHT WNW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
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AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS GRAY, WE'VE DECIDED TO HOIST A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE EARLY-OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE FOR
THE EASTERN MA COAST AND NANTUCKET. AS DESCRIBED IN THE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION, ASTRO TIDES ARE STILL HIGH ALBEIT LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT NO COASTAL FLOODING OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY, WE EXPECT ONLY SPLASHOVER TO RESULT WITH
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE.
SMOKY CONDITIONS STILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL SITES REPORTING
EITHER HZ OR FU WITH A WIDE RANGE IN VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO OVER 6
MILES. PER THE 12Z HRRR-SMOKE NEAR-SFC SMOKE MODEL OUTPUT FROM
TODAY, CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS SHOULD REDUCE
TONIGHT AND INTO MOST OF THE MORNING; HOWEVER POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR LOWER-ALTITUDE SMOKE TO BE OBSERVED IN WESTERN MA AND
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CT WED AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
STILL NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH A MID
LEVEL CUTOFF NEARBY AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING BETWEEN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MARITIMES. AS SUCH, A CONTINUED RISK FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LIFT LOOKS
LESS ROBUST, SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
* INCREASED DAYTIME CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS THURS THRU SAT, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING
EACH EVENING. TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT THEY DO WARM EACH
SUCCESSIVE DAY.
* DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
* BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
IS STILL UNCLEAR WHICH DAY(S) MAY HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
DETAILS:
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN TO CLOSE THE WORKWEEK. A LARGE/BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA/ME VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO GOVERN OUR
WEATHER IN THIS PERIOD, MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. WITH A
COOL POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS
C RANGE) AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND, EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH POP-UP/HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS
AT SCATTERED NET COVERAGE. IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO
LIMITED TO PERMIT THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDINESS DEEPENING
TO THE POINT WHERE THUNDER WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. DESPITE THE
SHOWERS AROUND TO DODGE, THERE ALSO WILL BE SEVERAL HRS OF DRY
WEATHER AROUND. EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO DECREASE EACH
EVENING. THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE
WEEK INTO SAT, EXPECT HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE
COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND "DESTRUCTIVE" SUNSHINE (E.G. HEATING
DRIVING INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE). HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS IS THAT
THE UPPER LOW FROM LATE-WEEKEND NOW LOOKS TO LINGER AROUND FOR
ANOTHER DAY, INTO SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKY/SLOW-TO-PROGRESS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OVERALL SIMILAR TO THURS AND FRI, ALBEIT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HAVE BROUGHT POPS UP INTO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER RANGE.
SUNDAY:
SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY BACK TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS SUBSIDENCE IS INDUCED
BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT, AS THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY
MOVES EAST. LIKELY TO BE THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS (MID 70S TO
LOW 80S). LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S, AND WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS
INCREASE IT SHOULD STILL FALL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGGING INTO THE OH VALLEY INTO THE PA/WESTERN MD VICINITY
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON/POSSIBLY TUE) OFFERS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDER TOO, AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS
ABOUT ONE STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID JUNE.
HAVE CAPPED POP FOR BOTH MON AND TUE AT HIGH CHANCE LEVELS FOR
NOW AS THERE'S A FAIR DEGREE OF SOLUTION SPREAD AS FAR AS WHICH
DAY(S) MAY OFFER BETTER RAIN CHANCES. MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN TEMPS OWING TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND WHILE NOT MUGGY
OR OPPRESSIVE, IT MAY FEEL A TOUCH MORE HUMID THAN CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED MORE RECENTLY.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
02Z TAF UPDATE: ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COMPLETELY
ERODE BY 04Z/05Z. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT WNW WINDS. MVFR IN FOG AND SMOKE AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA AND RI. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
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TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE, BUT REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN SMOKE VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING.
WIDE RANGE IN VSBYS FROM SMOKE FROM 2SM TO P6SM WHICH ARE
DRIVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM VFR TO IFR. WE SHOULD SEE LESS
CONCENTRATION IN SMOKE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS VFR, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT POSSIBLE SHRA/TS FOR BAF-BDL
THRU 03Z. WINDS MAINLY NW/W.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR BUT LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
-SHRA/-TSRA. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IN VFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GENERALLY VFR, THEN A
FEW T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THE BULK
OF THEM WILL BE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR AREAS OF NEAR GROUND LEVEL SMOKE AT TIMES, WHICH MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
AREAS OF NEAR GROUND SMOKE THAT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS
TODAY. WE ALSO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
T-STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BETWEEN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES. THIS RESULTS IN A MODEST NW WIND 10-20 KT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN DURING BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM, GOOD
VSBY EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRO TIDES REMAIN HIGH LATE TONIGHT, 11.3 FT MLLW AT BOSTON
AND 4.1 FT MLLW AT NANTUCKET. GIVEN LESS SURGE AND WAVE ACTION
IS EXPECTED THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, WATERS LEVELS AND THREAT OF
MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOWER. THEREFORE, HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BELK/LOCONTO/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/LOCONTO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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