189
FXUS61 KBOX 110732
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
332 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORIES ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CT
AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MA FROM NOON TODAY TO 8PM FRIDAY.
- A FEW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. WEEKEND LOOKING MOSTLY DRY,
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORIES ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN CT AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MA FROM NOON TODAY TO 8PM
FRIDAY.
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY POSE A RISK TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. PROLONGED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY HOT AND HUMID AIR,
ESPECIALLY AS 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO +27C THURSDAY AND
UP TO +30C FRIDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S
JUST AFTER 2AM AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, LIKELY TOPPING OUT AT OR NEAR 70, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR MA AND NORTHERN CT. THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100F TODAY AND LIKELY ABOVE 100F FRIDAY
ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS SURGING TO AT
OR NEAR 70 ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BOTH TODAY AND
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICIES IN THE LOW 90S, ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO EASTERN MA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FRIDAY... LIKELY
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80 WITH HEAT INDICIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS HOW FAR INLAND THE FRONT WILL PUSH,
BUT CURRENTLY THINKING IT'LL FALL SHORT OF REACHING ORH.
REGARDLESS, WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN THE
CT RIVER VALLEY, BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASED
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME
OUTDOORS WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR ACCESS TO COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE CATALYST FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE HAS WANED SOMEWHAT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS WESTERN CT THIS EVENING REMAIN. CSU ML
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW 15-30 PERCENT FOR SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL, AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG WITH POCKETS OF UP TO 2200 J/KG POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN CT... HOWEVER, THOSE HIGHER VALUES ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY
DECAY AS THEY PUSH EAST, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHORT- LEVEL
CELLS. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 20 KTS, WITH HIGHEST VALUES CONCENTRATED
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CT. REGARDLESS, ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUING TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT CSU ML
PROBABILITIES HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR IN WESTERN CT FAVORING A
30 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS. SOME MODEL SOUNDING
ARE INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DCAPE VALUES FRIDAY EVENING
COMPARED TO THIS EVENING, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM DRIVEN WINDS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FRIDAY
REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE COULD BE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. WEEKEND LOOKING
MOSTLY DRY, WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO FRONTS SHOULD
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING LOWERING
DEWPOINTS AND DECREASED HUMIDITY. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY
WARM FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 80S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING
THE LOWER 90S.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STALLS YET ANOTHER
FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARDS NJ SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE FORCING LOOKS RATHER WEAK, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS
THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR AREA AT TIMES. A SUBTLE
SHIFT OF EVEN JUST 20 MILES TO THE SOUTH, AND THE FORECAST COULD
BE LARGELY DRY. CHANGES WITH LATER FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH 09Z, MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CAPE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOWER END. VISBY'S DROP TO MVFR/IFR THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT FROM SHOWERS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW (NOT UNTIL 12Z OR LATER). SOME
AREAS COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF LIFR CONDITIONS AS ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE. SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. CHANCE THE
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY SWAP TO E/SE AT BOS LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR WITH LIGHTER WNW WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS. THUNDER AND HIGH WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF
SHOWERS DO FORM, BUT THEY SHOULD BE QUICK MOVING IN NATURE.
AFTERWARDS, A RETURN TO VFR FOR THE INTERIOR. IFR CIGS AND
VISBYS LIKELY RETURN ALONG THE COASTAL AND CAPE/ISLAND
TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS 2-4 FEET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS EXCEPT 3-5 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY THE LATE EVENING.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ002-
003-008>011.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MAZ013-016>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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