364
FXUS61 KBOX 100536
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1236 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF ICING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER. GALE
WATCHES ALSO ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER AND PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
ARRIVES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT.
- SOAKING RAIN ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR ICING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.
- BECOMING WINDY & TURNING COLDER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH A PERIOD
OF NW WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATER SUN NIGHT.
LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL TOO.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN TUE AND ESPECIALLY BY WED WHEN
HIGHS MAY APPROACH 50 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- TURNING COLDER THU INTO FRI AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN OFFSHORE
STORM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIPITATION/SNOW IF IT TRACKS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STEADY RAIN. STILL NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN TERMS OF TOTALS OR INTENSITY ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY EXTEND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, THE BEST FORCING IS DISPLACED WELL NORTH, ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. STILL, A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT BETWEEN
5 PM AND 7 PM, THEN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM. DESPITE HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF, ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. RAIN TOTALS
RANGE BETWEEN 0.1" AND 0.2". SHOWERS EXIT OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 12
AM AND 3 AM SATURDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT AS COLD, LOWS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-30S. THOUGH,
THE BERKSHIRES LIKELY DROP TO THE LOW-30S, HERE THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT OF BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SOAKING RAIN ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR ICING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY.
PARENT LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NE AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS
JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND. NOTABLE FEATURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
ENHANCED SW JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AROUND 230-280 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A SOAKING RAIN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT RANGE IN QPF LIKELY OWING TO TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE IN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES
AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. FOR NORTHERN MA AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.20-
0.50" AND 0.40-1.0" FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR ICING AND/OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS ELEVATED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TREND IN THE 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST
OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WOULD HELP TO KEEP A
WEDGE OF COLDER AIR OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
NOSE ALOFT MEANS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OVER A SNOW EVENT. HREF
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION MODEL (FRAM) HAS TICKED UP ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES
WITH THE 12Z RUN INDICATING THE CHANCE OF 0.05-0.10" AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT'S THINKING AND BLENDED IN A
PORTION OF COOLER GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
COLDER, AROUND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILE SO HOLDING OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BECOMING WINDY & TURNING COLDER SUN NIGHT INTO MON
WITH A PERIOD OF NW WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATER SUN
NIGHT. LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL TOO.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF WINDY AND
COLD WEATHER TO WORK INTO THE REGION. STRONG CAA ALONG WITH BUFKIT
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH LATER SUN
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR A
LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALL TOO. IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH
MODEST 1000 TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
LIMITED. SO RIGHT NOW CALLING IT A LOW PROBABILITY...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
OTHERWISE, MAIN STORY IS DRY BUT WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER. LOW TEMPS
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING
INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS PROBABLY RANGE FROM
THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS BY DAYBREAK MON.
KEY MESSAGE 4...MILDER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN TUE AND ESPECIALLY
BY WED WHEN HIGHS MAY APPROACH 50 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID-ALTANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE QUICK RETURN SOUTHWEST OF MILDER AIR BACK TO
THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 40S AND BY WED SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH 50. DRY WEATHER PROBABLY DOMINATES...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS LATE TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 5...TURNING COLDER THU INTO FRI AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AN OFFSHORE STORM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIPITATION/SNOW IF
IT TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PATTERN
CHANGE BACK TO COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOW QUICKLY THIS
HAPPENS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT APPEARS
THAT A -EPO WILL BE DEVELOPING. THIS WILL RESULT IN RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC AND A NORTHEAST TROUGH DEVELOPING...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TURNING COLDER THU AND FRI. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THU INTO FRI. IF IT
COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXISTS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR SNOW. A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
FAVORING A GLANCING BLOW/MISS...BUT THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH OF A SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO CHANGE THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY
MUCH MORE AND PROBABLY WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS UNTIL WE HAVE A
BETTER IDEA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH -GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TAF UPDATE: 06Z
THROUGH 12Z... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF GUSTS.
MVFR TO IFR FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA, CAPE COD, ISLANDS, AND COASTAL RI
THROUGH 08Z/10Z. ELSE WHERE VFR. WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY GUSTY FROM
THE W, SPEEDS 8-12 KNOTS, GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS, COASTAL AREAS ARE
STRONGER SPEEDS 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
TODAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE IN TIMING.
DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO START. LIGHT NW WIND BECOMES ENE WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 3 TO 8 KNOTS. A FRONT MOVES NORTH, WIND DIRECTION
BECOMES E 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z, THIS COINCIDES WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
TONIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE IN TIMING.
PERIODS OF RA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR
AFTER 03Z/05Z AND REMAIN THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES LOWER
BETWEEN 1SM AND 3SM. E WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z, WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NNW THERE AFTER WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
SUNDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A FEW RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. IFR
CEILINGS STARTING OFF, IMPROVING TO VFR (WEST TO EAST) BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z, CAPE COD AND ISLANDS COULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, NOT IMPROVING UNTIL 21Z-00Z. INCREASING W WIND 10 TO 15
KNOTS, GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR, IMPROVING TO A LOW-END VFR BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. SW GUSTS DIMINISH
BY 10Z-12Z, BECOMING W AROUND 10 KNOTS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A
FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 23Z-02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR TO MVFR, IMPROVING TO A LOW-END VFR BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. S WINDS
BECOMING WNW AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A
FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 20Z-23Z.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL SHIFT NORTH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NE
WIND EARLY, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, THEN E LATE AFTERNOON 10 TO 15
KNOTS, GUSTS 18 TO 22 KNOTS. RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, STARTING 2 PM TO 4 PM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 6 PM TO
8 PM ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. RAIN ENDS EARLY SUNDAY, WIND SHIFTS
TO THE NNW THEN W BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT, GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 13 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ230>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/FT
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY
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