183
FXUS61 KBOX 250006
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
806 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL THIS WEEKEND OVERALL BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND NEAR SOUTH COAST.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL THIS WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE WINDS BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS CT AND NEAR SOUTH COAST.
BLOCKY PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN CLOSED LOW OVER MARITIMES AND RIDGING OVER GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL, CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
PULL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW TO
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA, CT, AND PERHAPS THE SOUTH COAST AS WELL
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WE'RE NOW GETTING INTO WINDOW OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A
SHARP CUTOFF ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD, SOMETHING TO BE
EXPECTED WHEN WE HAVE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH, ALLOWING DRIER AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS TO MOVE IN DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW. CONSENSUS SHOWS BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM
PITTSFIELD, MA TO HARTFORD, CT AND NEWPORT, RI. WE DID NOTE 12Z 3KM
NAM BRINGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, AS DOES 12Z GFS, BOTH OF WHICH
WEAKEN SURFACE RIDGE A BIT MORE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY HAVE
TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS INTO THESE AREAS AS WELL.
ALSO OF NOTE IS 12Z NAM WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE SHORT WAVE NEAR CAPE
COD MONDAY, SOMETHING IT HAS SHOWN FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS, BUT NOW IT
DOES SO A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE. DON'T SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE, BUT THIS COULD END UP KEEPING AT LEAST CLOUDS AND
STRONGER NE WINDS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS SHOULD IT COME TO
PASS, IF NOT LINGERING SHOWERS.
OF COURSE IT WOULDN'T BE LATE APRIL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHOUT
STILL HAVING TO ASSESS PRECIPITATION TYPE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HILLS OF NORTHERN CT
WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN 3KM/12KM NAM PTYPE FORECASTS, BUT IT CERTAINLY
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WE DON'T SEE ANY REAL ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
COATING ON GRASS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN
THE 40S.
PATTERN UNDERGOES A CHANGE DURING MID TO LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
GIVES WAY TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST, PERHAPS EVOLVING
INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT STAYS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. EITHER WAY,
THIS SIGNALS A CHANGE TO A WETTER PATTERN WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, BUT THIS DOES NOT HAVE THE LOOK OF ANY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IF THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION ENDS UP VERIFYING,
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW (PROBABLY A BIT BELOW NORMAL) BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH E/NE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT SE DURING
SEABREAZES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY OR MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, MAINLY SW OF A LINE FROM PSF-
BDL-UUU.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, PATCHY FG.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY. PATCHY FG.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT E/NE WINDS AND CALM
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY COULD BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WITH WINDS NEARING 25KT AND SEAS 5 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, PATCHY
FOG.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
PATCHY FOG. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. WIDESPREAD FOG, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWD
AVIATION...MCMINN/JWD
MARINE...JWD
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