071  
FGUS71 KOKX 201135  
ESFOKX  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
734 AM EST WED MAR 20 2019  
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS IS THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES  
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO  
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH  
FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY,  
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT  
TWO WEEKS.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL  
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE  
RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER  
EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE, STREAM FLOW AND FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER  
FLOODING.  
 
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM  
MARCH 25TH THROUGH MARCH 29TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14  
DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 27TH THROUGH APRIL 2ND SUGGESTS NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC  
SERVICE AREA.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING.  
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER  
FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOODING  
POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.  
 
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.  
 
PRECIPITATION - PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC  
SERVICE AREA DURING THE LAST 60 DAYS ENDING ON MARCH 19TH WERE  
NORMAL TO 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT - THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW ON THE  
GROUNDS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  
 
RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA, RIVERS AND  
STREAMS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND  
BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE - ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA  
AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.  
 
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY  
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE 1 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS  
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE 15  
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SUMMARY - DURING THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD EXPECT NORMAL TO ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR  
COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:  
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=OKX  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNEWYORKNY  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT: @NWSNEWYORKNY  
 

 
 
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