814  
FNUS71 KPHI 261016  
FWSPHI  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TCB UNITS 45 AND 6...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
616 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON AUGUST 26.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, A WARM  
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PERIODS  
OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A  
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 8 TO  
10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (51700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
ADI.................9 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 73 IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........19 10 23 26 39 42 42 37  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............68 73 76 77 77 79 77 77  
RH..............81 71 64 62 62 58 60 62  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W S S S S S SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST. 3 5 7 8 8 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.9 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.7 5.3 4.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW W W W SW W SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 6 7 8 10 10 9  
ADI.............9 17 28 40 52 73 68 52  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 12 19 28 37 52 48 36  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (15200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (1500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
ADI.................2 TO 23 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........40 53 62 34  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10  
TEMP............76 67 64 63  
RH..............64 84 87 90  
20 FT WIND......S 3G6 S 1 S 1G2 S 2G5  
MIX HGT (FT)....2200 400 400 500  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 S 5 S 7 S 7  
ADI.............23 M M M  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..15 2 3 3  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
THURSDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING,  
THEN SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT EARLY IN  
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT LATE  
IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE IN  
THE MORNING INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT INCREASING  
TO 70 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING  
TO 80 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.  
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (24400 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
ADI.................MISSING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........56 88 65  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC LIKELY CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC CHANCE  
CWR.............20 60 50  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 60 50  
TEMP............62 70 78  
RH..............97 93 79  
20 FT WIND......S 2G7 S 6G14 S 8G17  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1300 2000  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 S 10 S 13  
ADI.............M M M  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 12 22  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR  
 
 
FORECASTER...MJL  
REQUESTED BY...PATRICK MCELHENNY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2620551.0/PHI  
.DELDT 08/26/26  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL PMCELHENNY@TNC.ORG  
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