281
FNUS71 KPHI 111251
FWSPHI
SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 38 WS5 RX FIRE...PA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
851 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY, A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (15100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (60600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ADI.................23 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 86 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........2 4 3 3 1 2 3 12 4 17
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............40 44 48 51 54 55 58 58 58 59
RH..............70 60 51 46 41 38 34 34 34 33
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NW NW NW NW NW W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.17 16 14 12 12 10 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.6 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N NW NW NW NW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 14 12 12 12 13 10 12 10 9
ADI.............23 45 53 68 73 86 72 81 73 66
VRATE KT-FT/1K..15 31 39 47 51 61 51 57 52 47
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR FR FR GD FR FR FR FR
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER 3
AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 7 TO
12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (35000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
ADI.................50 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 3 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........11 24 44 39 55 70 75 80 85 87 88 90
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30
TEMP............58 55 53 48 46 45 44 44 43 43 43 43
RH..............36 43 48 58 63 63 65 65 67 67 70 73
20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW W SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10 8 7 5 3 5 6 7 9 12 13 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.0 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW SW S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 12
ADI.............50 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..35 8 2 3 3 2 3 4 5 4 5 7
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (49400 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ADI.................9 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 55 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........89 88 87 87 87 87 89 92 94 94 94 94
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH
CWR.............30 30 70 70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 70 70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90
TEMP............44 44 45 47 49 51 53 54 55 56 56 56
RH..............73 79 82 83 80 80 77 77 77 77 80 80
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST.17 18 21 23 25 26 28 28 28 26 25 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S SW SW SW S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 15 16 17 17 18 20 21 22 21 20 18
ADI.............9 21 29 28 32 35 39 44 49 45 55 51
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 14 19 23 27 31 37 43 49 45 42 38
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR PR
FORECASTER...MPS
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN WILLIAMSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613320.0/PHI
.DELDT 05/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRIANWILLI@PA.GOV
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