284
FXUS61 KPHI 130527
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
127 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY CROSSING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEREAFTER,
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR/OVER THE REGION BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THIS MEANS MORE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
TO START, WITH SUN BREAKING THROUGH TOWARDS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO IT MEANS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO WELL INLAND/HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES, WITH I-95 AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST SEEING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S.
TONIGHT, THINGS START TO CHANGE AS A FRONT APPROACHES. BETTER
CHANCE THAT SOME WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM THE WEST REACHES OUR
WESTERN LOWER ELEVATION ZONES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS DURING THE
EVENING, THEN REMNANT SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG BY LATE AT NIGHT. LOWS MOSTLY NEAR OR ABOVE
70.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY WHILE
SLOWING DOWN AND UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS. VERY SLOWLY, THIS FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER/NEAR THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM.
GIVEN THIS SITUATION, EXPECT THE SHOWERY SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO
CONTINUE. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS LEFTOVER FROM TONIGHT COULD
LINGER FOR AREAS DURING THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME, DEPENDING
ON THE TIME FRAME OF FRONTAL MOVEMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD AS THE FRONT ONLY SAGS EVER SO SIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. WHILE THERE IS MAINLY ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS FOR TUESDAY, SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME ONWARDS GIVEN THE LOCATION/PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT.
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHTTIME
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AND MIXING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PLAGUE THE REGION BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS IT THROUGH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH SOMETIME NEAR/DURING THE
WEEKEND (E.G, LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY).
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION
OF THE SHOWERY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES WITH DIURNAL HEATING IN PLACE.
END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND COLD FRONT WILL BE WATCHED FOR EXACT
TIME FRAME OF APPROACH/PASSAGE, AND ITS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING CRITERIA.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING GENERALLY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING CIGS DROP TO IFR OR LOWER. THE SET UP LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS THAN FOG, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST,
INCLUDING KACY, WHERE BOTH THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. BY 09Z, EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO HAVE IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (5 KT OR LESS),
GENERALLY FAVORING THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, BUT COULD BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL PATTERN, LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
TODAY...ONCE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATE, WILL SEE A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 00Z, BUT IMPACTS MOSTLY CONFINED TO KRDG/KABE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE,
TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW T-STORMS NEAR KRDG/KABE TO START, THEN
CIGS DROP TO IFR AGAIN MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MAKE
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 6Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DAILY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THIS POTENTIAL, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY, PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING ON MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH
BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. THIS COMBINED WITH A LOWER
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS RESULTS IN A LOW RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS
AND THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW
TIDES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RCM/WUNDERLIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/RCM
SHORT TERM...WUNDERLIN
LONG TERM...WUNDERLIN
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/JOHNSON/RCM/STAARMANN/WUNDERLIN
MARINE...DESILVA/JOHNSON/RCM/STAARMANN/WUNDERLIN
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