233
FXUS61 KPHI 192029
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A NOR'EASTER WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING COASTAL
IMPACTS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY.
2. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF
COASTAL FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOR'EASTER WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING COASTAL IMPACTS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH
ABOUT THURSDAY.
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK. THIS IS
SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTH AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD (EVEN MEANDER SOME FOR A TIME).
MEANWHILE, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE
OF MAINE BY MIDWEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO OUR AREA THROUGH ABOUT LATE WEDNESDAY.
THIS NOR'EASTER, WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE, WILL STILL RESULT IN
SOME IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA, MAINLY THE COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH
WATER TOWARD/INTO THE COAST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF COASTAL FLOODING ARE
LIKELY (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 BELOW). INCREASING SEAS WILL RESULT IN
BEACH EROSION IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST, WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED.
INLAND, NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN HOW FAR OFFSHORE THE STORM
IS LIKELY TO BE. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED EVEN AT THE
COAST, GIVEN THE DISTANCE THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE
COAST. THIS KEEPS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ALSO WELL EAST OF OUR COASTLINES. SOME STRATOCUMULUS HOWEVER
WITHIN THE NORTH- NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GET INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL JERSEY SHORE TO THE DELAWARE
BEACHES. THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR COAST FOR THIS STORM LOOKS
TO BE DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE PEAK OF THE WINDS ACROSS
THE MARINE AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY HEAD FARTHER OUT
TO SEA AS AN INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST PICKS IT UP. THIS WILL
QUICKLY LESSEN THE MARINE AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ELEVATED HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS
OF COASTAL FLOODING.
AS THE NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT AND STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST
WIND IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW RESULTING IN MULTIPLE ELEVATED HIGH TIDE CYCLES. RECENT
FORECAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN LOWER ON THE CRESTS OF THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES FOR THIS EVENT.
THE FIRST HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE TUESDAY EVENING AS SPOTTY MINOR TO WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS FORECAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR OCEAN, SOUTHEASTERN
BURLINGTON, ATLANTIC, CAPE MAY, KENT, AND SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE. THIS ADVISORY GOES FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM TUESDAY AND IS
FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SPOTTY MINOR TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE CONTINUED FORECAST
TREND OF LOWER CRESTS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES, THE CURRENT
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED TO COVER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER, AN
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGH
TIDE CYCLES WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY, AS THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES REMAIN ELEVATED. FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST, WEDNESDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE CONTINUES TO BE THE ONE OF MOST
CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. IN SOME OF THE
BACK BAYS, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WEDNESDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BEYOND WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE
NOR'EASTER WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SPOTTY MINOR TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THIS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS FORECAST TO BE LOWER
THAN WEDNESDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 8-14 KNOTS
(NEAR 5 KNOTS AT KRDG/KABE). SOME GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS MAINLY AT
KMIV/KACY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MAINLY AT KABE, KRDG AND KTTN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS. WIND
GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS FROM THE I-95 TERMINALS ON EASTWARD FROM ABOUT 14Z-
23Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS AT TIMES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE WIND
INCREASE HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR TODAY AND THEREFORE
DID TEMPER THE INCREASE A BIT MORE INTO TONIGHT. THE OVERALL WIND
FIELD WITH THE WELL OFFSHORE LOW LOOKS TO NOT BE AS STRONG TO ITS
FAR NORTHWEST EXTENT. MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE ZONES, HOWEVER CANCELLED THE
GALE WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATER ZONE (SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NOW COVERS THIS ZONE THROUGHOUT THE EVENT). SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON DELAWARE BAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF GALES FOR MUCH OF THE
OCEAN WATER ZONES, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE
BAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE GALE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS
DIMINISHED EVEN MORE. PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE GALE WARNING ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 8-12 FEET, LOWER
ON DELAWARE BAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
SATURDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, HOWEVER SEAS 5-7 FEET MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE LONGER FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEW JERSEY/DELAWARE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NJZ020-022>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ480.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ481>483-485.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/GUZZO
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
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