293
FXUS61 KPHI 231047
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
547 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AS
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20 DEGREES F ARE EXPECTED. NO OTHER
HEADLINE CHANGES WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE
ELSEWHERE. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS
COLD FOR TONIGHT.
FOR MARINERS, A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEE THE MARINE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM A MAJOR WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
SLEET AND POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS
INCREASING. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20 DEGREES F EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.
2. A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
3. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20 DEGREES F
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS COMES IN VIA STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO -15 C (MAINLY SOUTH) TO -25 C (OVER
THE POCONOS UP NORTH). THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TAKING
A STEEP DIVE FROM THE 30S AND EVEN LOW 40S DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR EVEN BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD, IT WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL
BE MOVING IN WITH LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING
UP TONIGHT, WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
INITIALLY, GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25-35 MPH, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONCE AIR TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR LOW POINT,
GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 15-25 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF SINGLE DIGIT (OR EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
POCONOS) TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO, POTENTIALLY GETTING AS LOW AS -10 F FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE POCONOS WHERE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE AN OUTCOME OF WIND
CHILLS NEAR -20. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT MANY MAY GET UP
EARLY TO PREPARE FOR THE INCOMING WINTER STORM ON SATURDAY
MORNING, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING. JUST 30 MINUTES OF EXPOSED SKIN COULD CAUSE
FROSTBITE AND/OR HYPOTHERMIA, SO FOR ANYONE MAKING LAST MINUTE
PREPARATIONS FOR THE STORM TOMORROW MORNING, BUNDLE AND LAYER
UP! OR, STAY INSIDE AND STAY WARM.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WHERE THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.
WITH SUCH DEEP COLD OVERHEAD, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. AREAS IN THE POCONOS
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED.
A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US ON SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN JET AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE OUR ENTIRE REGION
WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING LARGE SCALE
TROUGH FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION, PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN.
THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW. AS
THE COLUMN MOISTENS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY, SNOW WILL LIKELY
BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LIKELY START TO LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY NEAR 750
MB, AND SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM THE EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN MAY REDUCE SNOW TOTALS, BUT WILL CREATE THEIR
OWN PROBLEMS, WITH FREEZING RAIN IN PARTICULAR LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWERLINES. IN ADDITION TO THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION CONCERNS FOR THESE AREAS, AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD,
MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO BE FELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN FOR THIS AREA. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, SO SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THESE AREAS PRIOR TO ANY
POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF POTENTIAL MIXING REMAINS IN QUESTION, AND
TIED IN LARGE PART TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW. WITH
THAT SAID, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A LOW TRACK
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME MIXING FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-78
CORRIDOR. NORTH OF I- 78, THE ANTICIPATION IS STILL FOR AN ALL
SNOW EVENT. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINS
TO FILTER BACK IN, PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY
COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW,
ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING DOES NOT OCCUR AND WHERE SNOW-TO- LIQUID
RATIOS ARE HIGHEST.
ALL-TOLD, SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 12-15" APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL
OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. HIGHER AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 18") ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE POCONOS AND INTO ADJACENT
AREAS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN NJ. FOR THE LOWER DELMARVA INTO MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN NJ, 6-12" OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED, WITH MIXING
LIMITING TOTALS MORE IN THOSE AREAS. RIGHT NOW, ICE ACCRETION OF
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25" IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.25" ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN
FUTURE UPDATES AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EXPECTED WINTER STORM, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE LOW 20S.
IN ADDITION, THE BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD
TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WIND
CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE, AND BELOW -10
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND PORTIONS OF NJ. THERE WON'T BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF DURING THE DAY, WITH WIND CHILLS
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO
FEATURE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES, THOUGH WIND CHILLS SHOULD IMPROVE
SOME AS WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE.
THIS PERIOD OF PROLONGED COLD WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE THAT
ARE OUTSIDE WITHOUT PROPER CLOTHING FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF
TIME. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TODAY...VFR. WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 14Z-16Z OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH 15-20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
OR SO. BETWEEN 22-00Z, WINDS GO MORE NORTHWESTERLY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT, GUSTING UP TO 30 KT
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH GRADUALLY AROUND
08Z, SETTLING TO AROUND 10 KT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
LATE IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PERIODS
OF SNOW. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES IN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AS SEAS WILL BE
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND
10-15 KT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR WATERS NORTH OF
LITTLE EGG INLET AT 11 AM, WITH THE REST OF THE MARINE ZONES
GETTING ADDED TO THE SCA AT 4 PM. THE SCA GOES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING (FOR THE OCEAN) AS WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS 3 TO 6
FEET.
WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS, THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FREEZING SPRAY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
THREAT FOR SCA CONDITIONS AND FREEZING SPRAY ENDING AROUND THAT
TIME. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2 TO 4 FEET FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATE WITH
NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS
3-5 FEET. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN RAIN/SNOW.
SUNDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERIODS OF GALES LIKELY. NORTHEAST WIND 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT AND SEAS 5-9 FEET SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WEST WIND 20-25 KT AND
SEAS 4-8 FEET EARLY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
CLIMATE
AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HERE ARE THE
1-DAY DAILY RECORD TOTALS FOR JANUARY 25TH FROM OUR SNOW
OBSERVING SITES. SOME OF THESE COULD BE CHALLENGED.
JANUARY 25TH DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 10.4" (1988)
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 8.3" (2000)
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 8.5" (2000)
READING (RDG) 9.0" (1905)
TRENTON (TTN) 14.0" (1905)
WILMINGTON (ILG) 10.0" (2000)
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ070-071-101-102-104.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101>106.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-016>027.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016>019-021>025-027.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-015.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-020-026.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...COOPER/HOEFLICH
MARINE...COOPER/HOEFLICH
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