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FXUS61 KPHI 172312
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
612 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES INTO TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
MOSTLY BY TO OUR SOUTH BY LATER TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
TONIGHT, WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH IF WINDS CAN DROP TO LESS
THAN 5 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS, RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO, ONLY WARMING INTO THE 40S. THE WEAK LOW WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DO BECOME ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE MAIN STORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS KEEPS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN TOWARDS DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE RECENT
TRENDS AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR MORE PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING NORTHWARD. POPS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78 ARE AROUND
30-60% WITH 60% CLOSER TO I-78 AND CLOSER TO 30% IN OUR
NORTHERNMOST ZONES. FOR THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS EVENT, THE
HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN DELMARVA AND LOWER TOTALS
TOWARDS NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS. UPWARDS OF HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS FORECASTED FOR MOST OF DELMARVA WITH NEAR A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. BEYOND THIS,
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE
DRY AIR IN PLACE TO START THAT THE PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME
WHICH MAY IMPACT TOTALS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN
BECOMES SATURATED. ONE OTHER KEY POINT IS THAT THERE IS SOME
WINTRY PRECIP FORECASTED FOR THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX AND MORRIS
COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS BEING NEAR OR BELOW A HALF INCH OF SNOW
IN THE POCONOS. PROBABILITIES SHOW A 40-60% POTENTIAL FOR A HALF
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS AND AROUND 20% OF ONE INCH
OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.
THE PRECIP ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN
WEDNESDAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE STAY MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH JUST THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY BUT
POPS WERE KEPT BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE IN THE MID 40S
TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE DO HAVE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE. OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER
STARTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LEADING TO
SOME SHOWERS BEING POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. DUE TO
THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, WE DO TREND WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. OVERALL DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN WITH THIS
COLD FRONT DUE TO TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT THIS FRONT IS ATTACHED TO. RIGHT NOW, POPS ARE AT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT LOOKS DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO BUILD IN. FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY, THEY
ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DUE TO
SOME RAIN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF RESTRICTIONS, LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ON WHEN CONDITIONS LOWER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME RAIN POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, WITH THE SCA GOING UNTIL 1 AM FOR DELAWARE
BAY AND 3 AM FOR THE OCEAN.
FOR TOMORROW, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
10-20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/MJL
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...GORSE/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/MJL
MARINE...GORSE/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/MJL
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