349
FXUS61 KPHI 211843
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
243 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON LATER SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY REMAINS, IT APPEARS TO BE LESSER NOW. HEAVIER RAINS LOOK
TO BE FOCUSED ON DELMARVA AND COASTAL SOUTH NJ.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FLOODING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
2. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AND SHOULD LAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FLOODING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING AWAY AND WEAKENING. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
THERE ARE TWO FAVORED PERIOD FOR THE RAINS, ONE IS SAT. MORNING
AND THE SECOND SAT EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE WAVES WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINS ARE ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ WITH
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AND CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
ACROSS THE N/W AREAS SATURDAY. POPS FOR ALL AREAS ARE IN THE 50%
TO 60% RANGE FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN THEY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ONE NOTABLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO
BE SHOWING THE HIGHER QPF TOTALS 'OUT TO SEA' . THE HIGHER TOTALS
ARE NOW IN THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AND WILL BE ACROSS THE NJ
SHORE AREAS. DELMARVA MAY ALSO HAVE SOME TOTALS AROUND AN INCH
THRU THAT PERIOD. A FEW OF THE CAMS SHOW THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS MAY HAVE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCH TOTALS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AND SHOULD
LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME SUBTLE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL,
RESULTING IN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS STRETCH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS
ARRIVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AROUND DAWN. LIGHT NE/E WINDS THEN
MOSTLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH/MEDIUM CONFID.
SATURDAY... MVFR MUCH OF THE TIME, BUT IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOO
ESPECIALLY KMIV/KACY CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
SHOWERS EXPECTED MANY SITES AFTER 10Z S/E AND 13Z/14Z N/W.
MEDIUM CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES.
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CURRENTLY ARE THE PERIODS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE ONSHORE 5 TO 10 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT. FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND THEN SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. THERE ARE BOTH GREATER CHANCES
FOR RAINS AND THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NJ WATERS AND DE/DE BAY
WATERS TOO.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ONLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
REST OF TODAY, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTY, WHERE NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH BREAKING WAVES AROUND 2 TO 3
FEET. AN ONSHORE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS WILL
ALSO ADD TO THE RIP CURRENT RISK. FOR THE SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND
DELAWARE BEACHES, WINDS WILL BE A BIT LESS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
BREAKING WAVES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
IN THESE LOCATIONS.
FOR SATURDAY...ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND MULTIPLE SWELL
GROUPS (ONE OF WHICH HAS A 12 TO 14 SECOND PERIOD) WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE. BREAKING
WAVES WILL ALSO BE AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES,
WINDS SHOULD BE LOWER WITH LOWER BREAKING WAVES, RESULTING IN A
LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OHARA
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...OHARA
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