994
FXUS61 KPHI 221350
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
850 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN TURNS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
850 AM UPDATE: FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
WITH MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN, WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OVERALL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S, WITH HIGHS GETTING CLOSER
TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 40S
AROUND DELMARVA AND SOUTH JERSEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
LATE SUNDAY, THOUGH THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND CLEAR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLIP EAST OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASING WARMING TREND AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY, WITH NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS, HOWEVER, KEEPING SUNSHINE A BIT LESS
ABUNDANT. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 20S, HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE I-78 CORRIDOR NORTH AND ALONG THE CHILLY
COASTAL STRIP. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST AREA LOOKING
LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY, WITH DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW SPOTS PERHAPS PASSING
60. AS THAT FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY, THERE COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER, BUT RIGHT NOW CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
TEMPS COOL DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS BACK IN, WITH SOME SUN AND
HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE, THEN LOOKS LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY LIKELY REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH 50S STILL PRETTY COMMON, BUT RIGHT NOW ITS
THE LAST DAY OF OUR 50S STRETCH.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST FOR FRIDAY, SO WE'LL COOL OFF AGAIN AS A
CANADIAN AIR MASS PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL NOT ALL
THAT BIG A JUMP, WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S STILL. A STRAY
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10-20 KT THOUGH A FEW GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS, BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY TOUCH SCA CRITERIA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/RCM
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM
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