421
FXUS61 KPHI 121000
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
2. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE
BAY, AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE FULLY PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LARGELY BACKED OFF ON ANY AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION THIS MORNING,
WITH ONLY A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO AROUND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE NOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE AGAIN, THE COVERAGE AND
EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS WILL BE RELIANT ON UPSTREAM
MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER PROPAGATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
ADDING A FRUSTRATING LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, HOWEVER, FORCING WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH GIVEN THAT THE TIMING OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGELY AFTER THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
ONLY MODEST, AROUND 35 KTS OR SO, BUT THAT OVERALL WEAK FORCING
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS IT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NORTH OF THE FRONT, A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, FINALLY BRINGING A MORE
PRONOUNCED BREAK IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND MORE PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS SATURDAY WILL BE COMFORTABLY
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BEFORE CREEPING BACK UP SUNDAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEK ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, DELAWARE BAY, AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON WEDNESDAY, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FOR
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND A HALF FOOT
BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE IN MANY AREAS THIS WEEK ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELWARE, DELAWARE BAY, AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. WITH TIDE DEPARTURES RUNNING AROUND A
HALF FOOT ABOVE AVERAGE, THIS WILL RAISE A THREAT OF MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BEING REACHED FOR THESE AREAS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDE DEPARTURES IN THE COMING
TOTAL WATER LEVEL FORECASTS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AT LEAST SPOTTY
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AROUND THE TIMES OF
THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES DEPENDING ON THE TIDAL DEPARTURES. THE
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT OF
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS
WELL.
TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN SHORE
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSRA POSSIBLE N/W LATE
AFTERNOON MAY BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT,
BACKING TO THE W IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING VFR. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...VFR EARLY THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
TURN FROM NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET
OR LESS WITH A SOUTHERLY 1 FOOT SWELL AROUND 5 TO 7 SECONDS.
WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN OVERALL CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE WITH A
LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR THURSDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY 1 FOOT SWELL AROUND 6 TO 8 SECONDS. DUE TO THESE
CONDITIONS THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NJZ021-023-024.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJL
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL
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