220
FXUS61 KPHI 301752
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1252 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND AN
EXPANDING HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US THROUGH MID-
WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD
APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 12:45PM...ALTHOUGH THE PEAK WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY
PASSED, HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW:
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30
MPH WITH WITH 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS THIS MORNING AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS. SHORTWAVES TOUCHED OFF SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW, AND THAT IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. CONDITIONS OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY, BUT THE
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A COLD DAY, EVEN BY LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, AND THEN WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND INTO MIDDAY FOR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL
MIDDAY FOR DELMARVA DUE TO THAT SURGE IN WINDS AFTER SUNRISE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLACKEN TONIGHT, BUT
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY. IN
FACT, SOME OF THOSE SHORTWAVES MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A 60 TO 80 KT JET STREAK THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, GENERALLY A
DUSTING OR SO, GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
MPH LATE. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
WINDS WILL KEEP OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND OTHERWISE IN THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
BROAD UPPER-TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LOW MEANDERS OVER QUEBEC. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECOND
PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING HEIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD. AT
THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE
POCONOS AND INTO FAR NORTHERN NJ, THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN PA AND MOST OF NJ, AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-78. HOWEVER, A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS COULD EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS
FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHERN DE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FIRMLY IN PLACE, SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A DUSTING NORTH OF I-78 AND
PERHAPS NEAR AN INCH ACROSS THE POCONOS. SOUTH OF I-78, ANY SNOW
AMOUNTS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE AT THE MOMENT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE POCONOS AND INTO FAR NORTHERN
NJ, AND LOW-MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS, SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT THE REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ
RISING INTO THE MID 30S. IT WILL ALSO LIKELY BE BREEZY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL
VALUES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES. THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE AREA WILL BE
DEVOID OF ANY MOISTURE. SKIES SHOULD START MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONOS AND INTO FAR NORTHERN
NJ.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT THE MOMENT, THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
UNEVENTFUL, WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY BENIGN, WITH TROUGHING
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN COULD BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY AND
TRACK EASTWARD, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE FOR SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, THE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SATURDAY, SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF
THE DELMARVA, BUT AMOUNTS CURRENTLY APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE. IN FACT,
MANY DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
ENTIRELY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TO BE ON MONDAY. SOME OF IT COULD BE OF THE WINTRY VARIETY, BUT
FOR NOW AMOUNTS APPEAR INSIGNIFICANT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED RANGE LOOK TO BE COLD,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH 30 TO 35 KT GUSTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHSN
THAT MAY RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. W-SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING,
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT LATE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SUB-VFR SHSN,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY UNTIL 6 PM. WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH 35 TO 40 KT
GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO
20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNINGS END. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 8
FEET TODAY, SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SNOW SHOWER WITH MINIMAL VSBY IMPACTS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WEST WINDS 15-25 KT. SEAS 3-5 FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/MPS
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/MPS
MARINE...COOPER/MPS
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