236
FXUS61 KPHI 091115
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING SHOWERS TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT THEN TURNS WINDY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
- SHOWERS TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT THEN TURNS WINDY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. WITH LIMITED
CLOUD COVER INITIALLY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE, MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, THE FIRST ROUND OF ANTICIPATED RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. AS
OF RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (40-60%) APPEARS TO
BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DO INDICATE SOME VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 100 J/KG), SO A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ONCE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVES OUT, AND UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES IN TOMORROW.
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WEAK FRONT AND
TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS, A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD,
HOWEVER WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OUR AREA THE MAIN
WARM SECTOR MAY NOT SHIFT ALL THAT FAR NORTHWARD. THE NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AND ALSO TEMPERATURE TRENDS (MAY HAVE A MORE NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
TOMORROW EVENING). THE GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEMS TO BE SHOWING
MORE OF A COOL WEDGE HOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF THE FALL LINE. AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN RAIN WHICH SHOULD
BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND/OR TOMORROW
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE UP TO 1.5 INCHES TOMORROW EVENING.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERALL CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF
A COOL WEDGE SETUP. WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, THE RISK OF THUNDER LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY FRONT, STRONGER
COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDY SUNDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS PEAKING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE DAY WITH UP TO
45 MPH IN THE POCONOS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL TURN COLDER DURING SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS TO RAIN OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THOUGH WITH THE SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS. OVERALL, AROUND A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THE FLOODING RISK IS MINIMAL TO
NONE. GIVEN THE ONGOING STRETCH OF MILD TEMPERATURES, ICE JAMS
OR ANY CREEK/RIVER ICE SHOULD BE GONE, SO RUNOFF SHOULD NOT BE
HINDERED IN ANY WAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE WEEKEND WET WEATHER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
FRIDAY...VFR INITIALLY, WITH CEILINGS TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR BY
AROUND 18Z. APPROACHING 00Z, CEILINGS COULD DECREASE TOWARDS
IFR, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON ANY IFR CEILINGS OCCURRING. ANY IFR
WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF. SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18-21Z. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS DEVELOPING FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER 20Z, ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE WINDS LESSEN.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN, SOME OF WHICH
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
SHOULD OCCUR BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MORNING.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SEAS INCREASE TO 2-4
FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT (AROUND 20%) CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
WINDS BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KNOTS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6
FEET. WINDS INCREASE MORE DURING SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF LOW- END GALE-FORCE GUSTS (35 KNOTS) SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/GORSE/GUZZO/MJL/STAARMANN
AVIATION...GUZZO/MJL
MARINE...GUZZO/MJL
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