791
FXUS61 KPHI 171016
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
ONE THING WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF WITH THIS FRONT IS
PRECIPITATION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER THE COLD FRONT FROM 2 NIGHTS AGO. THERE WILL NOT BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS,
PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WILL BE LIMITED. HAVE KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NW NJ.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY, WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FOR SOME OF OUR AREA. THERE ARE HOWEVER A FEW UNKNOWNS THAT COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE FREEZE WILL BE. FIRST OF ALL,
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE MUCH OVERNIGHT, BUT RATHER SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 10 MPH. AS A RESULT, WE LIKELY WON'T SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF A FROST. HOWEVER, THIS COULD ALSO LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SECONDLY, IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT, THAT COULD ALSO
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
FREEZING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING. FOR FAR NW NJ, CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUSSEX COUNTY. FOR THE REST
OF NW NJ, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND BERKS COUNTY, WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS
IN THE MID 30S, BUT ARE NOT PLANNING ANY FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS THE WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, EXPECT LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY FAIR THIS PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE REGION. SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL THU THEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE WETTEST PART OF THE LONG TERM
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA AND A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE RAISED FROM THE
EARLIER FCST WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS NOW IN THE GRIDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL SAT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS TOO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, SO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SAT, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD, HOWEVER A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL
BUILD IN MON AND THE MOVE OFFSHORE TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON THEN REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
TUE.
NORMAL HIGHS: PHL/MPO/GED : 64/55/66
NORMAL LOWS : PHL/MPO/GED : 46/34/43
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS AROUND 25
KT OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO NEAR 10 KT OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS THU MORNING.
FRI NIGHT/SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS SAT.
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY.
MARINE
UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN NOW FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NJ COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 25
KT AT BUOY 44065. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON
ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD DEVELOP A FEW HOURS EARLIER, BUT DON'T
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO MOVE UP THE START TIME OF
THE GALE WARNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY,
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THU: EARLY GALES WILL SETTLE TO SCA CONDITIONS THEN DROP BELOW SCA LATER
THURSDAY. FAIR WEATHER.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI: SUB-SCA, BUT WINDS INCREASE FRI LATE
AFTERNOON. FAIR.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. SHOWERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY..A CONTINUATION OF SCA CONDITIONS WITH
SOME LOW-END GALES POSSIBLE. FAIR WEATHER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
451.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ431-450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O'HARA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/O'HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O'HARA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page