472
FXUS61 KPHI 221058
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
658 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN UNCHANGED.
EMPHASIZED COOLING TREND STARTING FRIDAY WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
SLIDING INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
2. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THEN PUTS AN END
TO THEM FRIDAY.
3. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING, A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD LEADING TO CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT, A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK, BUT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST SHOWER COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE TREND DRIER
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND WINDS TURN LIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY REACH INTO THE 50S FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-78. AREAS SOUTH OF I-78 GET INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF DELMARVA. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE IN THE 40S FOR MOST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THEN PUTS AN END TO THEM FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY, ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGHOUT, PERHAPS A TOUCH WARMER IN INTERIOR SOUTH NJ AND
DELMARVA AWAY FROM THE COAST AND BAY SHORES..
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP, BUT CONDITIONS WILL
OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER. WE CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 70 IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD, BUT UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS
AND ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ SHORE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
NJ, WITH 60S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUSLY BAD WITH BACK DOOR FRONTS AND ITS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE (AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM) THAT THE
FRONT RACES SOUTHWESTWARD MUCH FASTER AND WE END UP NOTABLY
COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PUSHES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PROVIDING WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH AROUND 1/2 INCH OR SO OF
RAIN. IT WILL, HOWEVER, BE OUTRIGHT CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50. MOST SHOWERS TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S ON SUNDAY.
DRY AND WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MAY ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...A PERIOD OF MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 14-20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING AND END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 15-18Z. ANY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO
VFR AFTERWARDS. SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
17-21Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT WAS TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF CURRENTLY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHRA WITH MINIMAL
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH SHRA.
IMPROVING CONDS LATER ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO FENWICK
ISLAND UNTIL 1 PM TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO GREAT
EGG INLET UNTIL 3 PM TODAY.
A SOUTH WIND IN THE MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10- 15 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS 3-5 FEET THIS MORNING
DECREASE TO 2-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, SEAS REMAIN AT
2-4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING VSBYS ON SUNDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/GUZZO/MPS/RCM
AVIATION...GUZZO/MPS/RCM
MARINE...DESILVA/GUZZO/MPS/RCM
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