795
FXUS61 KPHI 160549
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1249 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW FORECAST REMAINS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
NORTH OF THE I-195 AND PA TURNPIKE CORRIDORS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
3.AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THIS WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT BEFORE
DEPARTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOR NORTHERN AREAS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WET
BULBING, FOR SNOW, AND THEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND INTO THE AREA TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS
ALL SNOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE REMAINS AROUND THE I-195 CORRIDOR
IN NEW JERSEY WEST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA AND ACROSS THE PA
TURNPIKE. IN THIS AREA, AND 5 TO 10 MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THIS AREA, THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, WHILE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PLAIN RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA, MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WILMINGTON TO ATLANTIC CITY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A COATING TO AN INCH,
THOUGH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. FOR DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
GENERALLY 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, PERHAPS UP TO 3/4
OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY, BUT A PROLONGED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WHICH ARE STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2..ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY LEADS TO A
SOUTHWEST WIND WITH ITS RETURN FLOW AND REMAINS OFFSHORE INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS LEADS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS, MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR THE SPECIFICS ON TEMPERATURES, HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40 TO
LOW 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME
SPOTS POTENTIALLY GETTING TO 60 IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DELMARVA.
IN TERMS OF OVERNIGHT LOWS, MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE AREA,
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST NIGHT WITH BELOW FREEZING LOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
AFTER OVER TWO WEEKS NOW WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND, THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE SNOWPACK TO MELT QUICKER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THIS WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
DURING THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AT TIMES.
OUR FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH WILL BE THE WEAKEST OUT OF ALL THE
SYSTEMS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AN AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
WHEN MENTIONING THIS AS LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION, IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE SNOW, FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE, AND PLAIN
RAIN. DUE TO THE MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, THE TIMEFRAME
BEARS WATCHING. OVERALL THOUGH, THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS
RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF IT.
FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM, A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE, THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDWEST
THAT DRAGS A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOME RAIN FOR THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THIS
BEING AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT
WITH NBM PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF QPF BEING LESS THAN 10%
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER, OUR AREA COULD CERTAINLY USE SOME RAIN
AND THIS COULD BE THE FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN FOR SOME IN ALMOST A
MONTH OR MORE (GIVEN HOW COLD IT HAS BEEN, PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS
BEEN ALL SNOW). WE THEN STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FOR THE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM THE MIDWEST AND MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. JUST LIKE
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER,
IF MORE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NJ COULD
SEE SOME SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF OVER 1 INCH
IS STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE AT AROUND 10-20%. THE DETAILS WILL BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TIMING
COMES MORE INTO FOCUS.
BEYOND THIS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS AT THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL, THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRIMARILY RAIN TO MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS DEPENDING ON
TIMING. ONE KEY NOTE WITH THESE SYSTEMS, WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTING MODERATE OR MAJOR IMPACTS. IN FACT, FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, IT WILL BE MORE OF A BENEFICIAL RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...MAINLY IFR. AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KPNE, PRIMARILY SN.
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF MIXED RASN NOW EXPECTED AT KPHL. AT KILG,
KMIV AND KACY, PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RA. PRECIP MOSTLY ENDS BY
09Z, THEN IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. E-NE WINDS 8
TO 12 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE, OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.
MONDAY...IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING, SLOWLY LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY IT LIFTS,
ESPECIALLY TO VFR TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT,
BECOMING LGT/VRB LATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE, OVERALL, LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS MOVING THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR, THOUGH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR LOW CLOUDS.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5
FEET. THOUGH WINDS DIMINISH LATE MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS, SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. THE
SCA WAS MOVED UP TO START A BIT EARLIER GIVEN WINDS RAMPING UP,
OTHERWISE REMAINS AS INHERITED THRU MONDAY.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW AND FOG TONIGHT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...ICE COVER CONTINUES ACROSS MANY AREA
BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE THICKNESS IS ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ICE
ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM THE
DELAWARE MEMORIAL BRIDGE UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST WASHINGTON CROSSING,
THOUGH WE ARE SEEING IMPROVEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ONLY GET BETTER WITH WARMER DAYS AHEAD.
ACCORDING TO LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER, DELAWARE
BAY IS ACTUALLY MAINLY ICE-FREE WITH LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE OF ICE.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE FORECAST
TO GET TO ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME AREAS GETTING INTO THE
50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES,
CAN ALSO BREAK UP ICE BUT THAT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
AS A RESULT, ICE COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND WEST - AROUND 10
KT OR LESS AND THEN SHIFT TO BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DELAWARE
BAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS COULD RESULT IN AN
EXTENSION TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SEAS NEAR 5
FEET.
EQUIPMENT
KDIX WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY,
FEBRUARY 15.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/GUZZO/MPS/RCM
AVIATION...AKL/GUZZO/MPS/RCM
MARINE...AKL/GUZZO/MPS/RCM
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