043
FXUS61 KPHI 260126
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT THU APR 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES BY SATURDAY. HIGHS PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT
ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST IS RELATIVELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS
HUNG ON A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
A BIT WARM COMPARED TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. GIVEN THAT CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3
OF THE CWA, AM A BIT SKEPTICAL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS
MUCH AS SOME OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE HAS. NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY, BUT MOST AREAS WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD GET
CLOSE TO/BELOW FREEZING WITH SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AREAS
OF THE FROST ADVISORY. AS A RESULT, NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES.
FOR FRIDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
10 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, KEEPING A RELATIVELY COOL
MARITIME AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE WILL
SEE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS COMPARED TO TODAY, SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COASTS WHICH WILL STAY IN THE 50S. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A COOL BREEZE MUCH OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A TRANSITION FROM EARLY SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUMMER READINGS BY SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD AND AS THIS HAPPENS, LOW PRESSURE MOVES
BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING A WARM FRONT THRU ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOW
SATURDAY (SLIGHT CHANCE) AND ONLY CHANCE LEVELS FOR SAT NIGHT.
THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR THE SHOWERS ARE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS,
LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTH NJ.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE
WARM FRONT, A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE AREA, SO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S IN MOST SPOTS, BUT COOLER NEAR THE
SHORE AND UP ACROSS THE POCONOS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SPRING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STARTS OUT ACROSS THE EAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. GRADUALLY,
THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AND ALLOWS MORE SCATTERED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND THE WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THRU. SO, FOR THE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT, A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
AND AFTER THAT, ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDWEEK AND INTO THU.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S SUNDAY AND THEN SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER FOR MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR TUE, BUT HIGHS IN THE 80S
ARE STILL EXPECTED. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE INTO THE NEW WEEK
WITH DEW POINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5-10 KTS EARLY
DIMINISHING BY 06Z TO LESS THAN 5 KTS FAVORING AN EAST/NORTHEAST
DIRECTION. WINDS MAY BECOME LOCALLY CALM. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 5-10
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT... VFR EXCEPT IN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
KRDG/KABE/KTTN WHEN SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY... MOSTLY VFR BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 5 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT SOUTH OF
LITTLE EGG INLET BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA FOR WATERS OFF OF OCEAN COUNTY AS BUOY AND
SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUB-5 FOOT SEAS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC ZONES
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET. NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30% RANGE TOMORROW. HOWEVER, WITH
WINDS SO LOW, AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS, THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD
OF WILDFIRE REMAINS LOW. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AND COORDINATE WITH PARTNERS TO SEE IF ANY STATEMENTS ARE
NEEDED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062-
101>106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ014-023.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012-013-015>022-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SYNOPSIS...OHARA
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA/STAARMANN
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA/STAARMANN
FIRE WEATHER...HOEFLICH
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