047
FXUS61 KPHI 032001
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
AND WILL BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL TRACK OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THAT LOW WELL
OFFSHORE. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S, ALONG
THE COASTS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP, AND ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING THIS SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT, THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY FOR THE POCONOS.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR OR INTO THE LOW 90S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SHORE AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AFTER THE PERIOD OF DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS, A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OUR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES IN, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AS TO IF THIS WILL BE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW OR A TROUGH,
BUT REGARDLESS, THE NET EFFECT APPEARS TO BE A COOLING TREND,
ESPECIALLY GOING INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS, SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS OUR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND HOW THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EVOLVE, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
VARIATIONS AMONG DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SURFACE
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. BEYOND SUNDAY, A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING CLOSE TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR/SKC. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, DIMINISHING LATE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-SE
BEHIND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AT KMIV/KACY BY 19Z, AND
KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG LIKELY BY 22-23Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. LGT/VRB WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME CIRRUS. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5-10 KTS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES POTENTIALLY TURN WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY, MOST LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT TONIGHT, BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 KT LATE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4-5
FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL TURN TO THE
EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND SEA BREEZES.
BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET. THERE WILL BE A LESSENING
EASTERLY SWELL WITH A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THERE
IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE FOR MONMOUTH
COUNTY, OCEAN COUNTY, AND ATLANTIC COUNTY, AND A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE JERSEY SHORE FOR CAPE MAY COUNTY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND SEAS/SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THUS, THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/GUZZO/MPS
AVIATION...AKL/GUZZO/MPS
MARINE...AKL/GUZZO/MPS
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