565
FXUS61 KPHI 100001
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
701 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS INCREASED. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT THEN MORE
RAINS SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
THEN MORE RAINS SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH AND RIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY TO
LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE (70% TO 80%). TOTAL RAINFALL OF A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. RAINS END
OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. POSSIBLE VSBY TRAVEL IMPACTS IN FOG.
MORE RAINS DEVELOP SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. POPS (90% TO 100%) FOR THE AREA WITH RAINS
ARRIVING S/W FIRST FOR THE LATE MORNING AND THEN ARRIVING N/E
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RAINS WITH THIS SECOND BATCH WILL BE THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE-INCH. POSSIBLE IMPACTS COULD POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AND POSSIBLY FOG FOR AREAS NEAR COOLER RIVERS
OF THE OCEAN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
STRONG, NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST INTO
THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FROM THIS LOW, A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY, AND A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT AND BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THERE WILL BE STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, AND THIS
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WILL MAKE SURE THE FORECAST
HAS 15-20 POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY STARTING IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE
INITIAL DEPARTING SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS EITHER, BUT IT IS A LITTLE TOO SOON
FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE DEVELOPED.
FROM THERE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GULF COAST STATES. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTH WEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, GUSTS COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 45 TO 50 MPH, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 04Z-05Z THOUGH
SOME POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ARE HANGING AROUND KABE/KRDG. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER 05Z, WITH A RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE.
KACY/KMIV SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH ABOUT 03Z-05Z. WINDS STARTING OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT, SHIFTING TO N/NW BETWEEN
05Z-08Z, STILL AROUND 5-10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING DOWN
TO MVFR BETWEEN 15Z-18Z AND IFR BETWEEN 18Z-21Z WITH RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN. AFTER 21Z, SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
(30-40%), WHICH WAS COVERED WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE I-95 AND
SOUTH JERSEY AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN THAT AREA. WINDS OUT OF THE EAS AS THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THESE SHOWERS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR
REGION. T/NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HEAVIEST RAIN
MOVES OUT AROUND 00Z, THOUGH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG HANG AROUND
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. 40-60%
CHANCE OF VSBYS UNDER 1 NM AND A 10-30% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY
1/2SM OR LESS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5 KT. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST IFR, THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW
LOW CIGS/VSBYS GO.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED SHRA AND/OR SHSN SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VSBYS. W-NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 35
KT GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDS IN
SHRA.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. FOG POSSIBLE. MORE RAINS SATURDAY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS FIRST (MORNING) AND THEN FOR THE NORTHERN NJ
WATERS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25
KT, SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON DELAWARE BAY.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES FOR
SUNDAY. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 20-30 KT
WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT...A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR ALL MARINE ZONES AS GUSTS
COULD GET NEAR 35 KT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING,
DIMINISHING TO SUB-SCA LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED,
HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...MPS/OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
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