462
FXUS61 KPHI 032326
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SEQUENCE OF QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT CROSSING PA/NY WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN PA, DELMARVA AND NJ THRU THE EVENING. IT WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. CLOUDS COVER WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER IT MOVES BY.
A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THRU SUNSET ACROSS NE PA AND
NORTH NJ, BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
MPH BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
TONIGHT, THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
N/W AREAS WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL SEE READINGS IN TOE LOW 40S. WEST
WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY, LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
EARLY ON WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US COAST BY EVENING.
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
HIGH, SO DRY WEATHER AND A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S MOST SPOTS AND SOME LOW 50S FOR THE FAR NW
AREAS, WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A WEAK WAA REGIME TO SET-UP ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD, WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AT NIGHT, WHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWER WILL BE LIGHT
IN NATURE, BUT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE NORTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE/I-195 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY, SETTLING OVERHEAD AT NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
EFFICIENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. OPTED TO BLEND IN SOME
COOLER GUIDANCE, WHERE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S. THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST FROST (AND POTENTIALLY SOME
FREEZE) HEADLINES FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BY FRIDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, A
SERIES OF QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT (60-80%
CHANCE) AND ON SUNDAY (30-50% CHANCE). CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
NESTLED WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD, WITH WELL BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COME NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT ... VFR. DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING THEN MOSTLY SKC
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 20KTS BEHIND FROPA DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT REMAIN BREEZY. HIGH CONFID.
TUESDAY... VFR. FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KTS RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
EXCESS OF 20 KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
MARINE
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE FLAGS. WINDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE
BEEN LIGHT ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SE TO E AROUND 15 KTS ON THE
OCEAN. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SW THEN W FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAYBE SOME GALE GUSTS AT
TIMES, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CONSIDER A GALE FLAG. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING THE FAIR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY, WITH POTENTIAL
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
25-35 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KT WITH SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA
NEAR TERM...MJL/OHARA
SHORT TERM...DESILVA
LONG TERM...DESILVA
AVIATION...DESILVA/MJL/OHARA
MARINE...DESILVA/OHARA
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